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Electoral projections for the 2021 federal election

Sept. 10th 2021


Projections électorales pour l'élection fédérale de 2021 www.tooclosetocall.ca
tooclosetocall.ca www.silatendancesemaintient.ca
% CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC Ind.
Atlantic 33.8 39.9 19.4 2.6 0.0 3.7
Quebec 20.5 34.8 12.4 2.1 26.1 3.7
Ontario 34.5 37.5 19.1 2.1 0.0 5.4
Prairies 44.2 23.3 25.4 1.3 0.0 5.3 Probability of winning most seats
Alberta 53.5 18.7 19.5 0.7 0.0 6.4 (with majority below)
BC 32.1 27.4 29.6 5.8 0.0 4.4 Probabilités de gagner le plus de sièges
Canada 33.6 33.2 19.6 2.3 5.3 5.1 (et d'une majorité en-dessous)

Seats/Sièges CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC


Atlantic 9 21 2 0 0 35.0% 64.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quebec 14 41 2 0 21 0 5.2% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ontario 42 71 8 0 0
Prairies 17 6 5 0 0
Alberta 31 2 1 0 0
BC 14 12 15 1 0
Territories* 1 1 1 0 0
Probability of winning the riding
Canada 128 154 34 1 21 0 0 Probabilité de remporter la circonscription

Riding/Circonscription CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC Ind. CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC Ind.
Avalon 34% 45% 19% 2% 9.6% 90.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Bonavista--Burin--Trinity 39% 49% 13% 2% 13.6% 86.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Coast of Bays--Central--Notre Dame 38% 48% 14% 13.7% 86.3% 0.0%
NFL

Labrador 34% 41% 25% 2% 21.8% 77.5% 0.7% 0.0%


Long Range Mountains 31% 47% 22% 2% 3.9% 96.1% 0.0% 0.0%
St. John's East/St. John's-Est 22% 38% 40% 3% 0.4% 39.0% 60.6% 0.0%
St. John's South--Mount Pearl/St. John's-Sud--Mount
23% Pearl
50% 28% 3% 0.2% 99.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Cardigan 37% 49% 10% 4% 3% 11.3% 88.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charlottetown 34% 43% 15% 8% 3% 14.4% 85.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
PEI
PEI Egmont 43% 41% 9% 7% 2% 62.1% 37.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Malpeque 39% 38% 12% 10% 3% 54.1% 45.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cape Breton--Canso 39% 39% 22% 5% 49.4% 50.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Central Nova/Nova-Centre 39% 45% 17% 0% 5% 26.9% 73.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cumberland--Colchester 46% 35% 16% 3% 4% 87.5% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour 59% 41% 1% 5% 95.3% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Halifax 19% 37% 41% 3% 4% 0.1% 30.9% 69.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NS

Halifax West/Halifax-Ouest 32% 38% 27% 3% 3% 24.1% 71.4% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Kings--Hants 37% 39% 20% 3% 4% 40.5% 59.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sackville--Preston--Chezzetcook 32% 38% 28% 2% 4% 23.2% 70.1% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0%
South Shore--St. Margarets 39% 39% 20% 3% 47.0% 52.9% 0.1% 0.0%
Sydney--Victoria 41% 32% 27% 0% 3% 81.1% 15.9% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Nova/Nova-Ouest 45% 35% 20% 2% 85.8% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Acadie--Bathurst 24% 56% 18% 2% 2% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Beauséjour 23% 54% 13% 10% 5% 0.2% 99.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fredericton 38% 44% 12% 6% 28.8% 71.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Fundy Royal 53% 28% 15% 5% 5% 99.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Madawaska--Restigouche 32% 53% 10% 5% 2% 1.4% 98.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NB

Miramichi--Grand Lake 42% 41% 13% 3% 6% 51.6% 48.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe 29% 47% 17% 6% 6% 3.2% 96.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Brunswick Southwest/Nouveau-Brunswick-Sud-Ouest
56% 27% 13% 4% 6% 99.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint John--Rothesay 35% 46% 16% 3% 6% 13.8% 86.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tobique--Mactaquac 56% 27% 12% 4% 5% 99.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou 21% 31% 14% 1% 29% 4% 2.7% 59.9% 0.0% 0.0% 37.4% 0.0%
Abitibi--Témiscamingue 19% 27% 11% 1% 38% 3% 0.9% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 82.8% 0.0%
Ahuntsic-Cartierville 12% 52% 14% 4% 16% 3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Alfred-Pellan 18% 49% 10% 1% 22% 0.0% 99.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation 16% 42% 9% 30% 4% 0.0% 89.8% 0.0% 10.2% 0.0%
Avignon--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia 12% 37% 5% 44% 3% 0.0% 30.0% 0.0% 70.0% 0.0%
Beauce 43% 14% 4% 0% 7% 31% 95.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0%
Beauport--Limoilou 32% 27% 14% 2% 26% 61.8% 20.4% 0.0% 0.0% 17.8%
Bécancour--Nicolet--Saurel 20% 20% 6% 1% 50% 3% 0.3% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 98.5% 0.0%
Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis 49% 19% 7% 1% 24% 99.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Beloeil--Chambly 12% 23% 17% 2% 44% 3% 0.1% 4.6% 0.2% 0.0% 95.1% 0.0%
Berthier--Maskinongé 14% 17% 36% 0% 30% 3% 0.0% 0.3% 75.2% 0.0% 24.5% 0.0%
Thérèse-De Blainville 14% 36% 10% 2% 35% 3% 0.0% 56.6% 0.0% 0.0% 43.4% 0.0%
Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères 14% 29% 11% 45% 3% 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% 89.8% 0.0%
Bourassa 12% 58% 10% 1% 16% 3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Brome--Missisquoi 16% 41% 9% 3% 27% 3% 0.0% 92.9% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 0.0%
Brossard--Saint-Lambert 16% 54% 14% 13% 2% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques
14% 26% 25% 32% 3% 0.3% 23.3% 13.4% 63.0% 0.0%
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles 39% 21% 9% 1% 25% 5% 93.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 0.0%
Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix
35% 24% 6% 0% 30% 4% 68.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 26.4% 0.0%
Châteauguay--Lacolle 18% 38% 9% 4% 29% 3% 0.1% 82.7% 0.0% 0.0% 17.2% 0.0%
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord 41% 19% 7% 1% 28% 3% 93.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 0.0%
Compton--Stanstead 19% 40% 10% 3% 25% 3% 0.1% 94.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 0.0%
Dorval--Lachine--LaSalle 15% 53% 14% 3% 11% 3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drummond 23% 21% 17% 39% 4.6% 4.8% 0.3% 90.3%
Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine 12% 46% 5% 34% 3% 0.0% 90.1% 0.0% 9.9% 0.0%
Gatineau 14% 55% 12% 2% 14% 4% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hochelaga 9% 33% 24% 2% 28% 3% 0.0% 71.1% 4.3% 0.0% 24.6% 0.0%
Honoré-Mercier 14% 59% 10% 0% 14% 3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hull--Aylmer 13% 56% 15% 5% 8% 3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Joliette 14% 23% 7% 2% 51% 3% 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 97.8% 0.0%
Jonquière 31% 23% 16% 2% 27% 61.2% 10.9% 0.1% 0.0% 27.8%
La Pointe-de-l'Île 12% 31% 13% 41% 3% 0.0% 19.9% 0.0% 0.0% 80.1% 0.0%
La Prairie 14% 36% 10% 2% 35% 3% 0.0% 60.5% 0.0% 0.0% 39.5% 0.0%
Lac-Saint-Jean 29% 28% 6% 0% 37% 16.1% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 69.0%
Lac-Saint-Louis 20% 57% 14% 5% 1% 3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
LaSalle--Émard--Verdun 12% 43% 19% 4% 18% 3% 0.0% 99.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Laurentides--Labelle 13% 34% 9% 3% 40% 2% 0.0% 33.1% 0.0% 0.0% 66.8% 0.0%
Laurier--Sainte-Marie 8% 40% 28% 3% 18% 3% 0.0% 93.8% 5.5% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0%
QC

Laval--Les Îles 21% 48% 12% 2% 13% 4% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne 12% 39% 13% 3% 29% 3% 0.0% 86.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 0.0%
Lévis--Lotbinière 45% 16% 8% 1% 23% 6% 99.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Longueuil--Saint-Hubert 9% 39% 9% 6% 34% 2% 0.0% 69.8% 0.0% 0.0% 30.2% 0.0%
Louis-Hébert 21% 40% 10% 2% 27% 0.4% 91.3% 0.0% 0.0% 8.2%
Louis-Saint-Laurent 45% 20% 8% 1% 21% 5% 99.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Manicouagan 25% 23% 4% 48% 0% 2.4% 2.3% 0.0% 95.3% 0.0%
Mégantic--L'Érable 50% 16% 5% 1% 24% 4% 99.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Mirabel 14% 25% 10% 3% 44% 4% 0.1% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 93.6% 0.0%
Montarville 12% 36% 12% 37% 3% 0.0% 50.1% 0.0% 49.9% 0.0%
Montcalm 14% 21% 9% 2% 51% 3% 0.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 98.6% 0.0%
Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup
48% 19% 8% 25% 99.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%
Mount Royal/Mont-Royal 29% 54% 11% 3% 1% 3% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Westmount 16% 54% 18% 8% 1% 3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Outremont 12% 44% 23% 9% 9% 3% 0.0% 99.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Papineau 9% 51% 22% 5% 10% 3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pierrefonds--Dollard 23% 57% 14% 3% 4% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pontiac 25% 45% 14% 2% 9% 5% 0.5% 99.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier 44% 20% 8% 23% 6% 99.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0%
Québec 16% 33% 14% 3% 31% 3% 0.2% 59.5% 0.0% 0.0% 40.4% 0.0%
Repentigny 14% 29% 10% 47% 0.0% 8.0% 0.0% 91.9%
Richmond--Arthabaska 50% 19% 7% 22% 3% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles 16% 34% 9% 3% 34% 4% 0.0% 54.8% 0.0% 0.0% 45.2% 0.0%
Rivière-du-Nord 17% 24% 11% 46% 3% 0.2% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 95.7% 0.0%
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie 9% 23% 46% 3% 19% 0.0% 0.2% 99.7% 0.0% 0.1%
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 15% 45% 12% 26% 3% 0.0% 97.7% 0.0% 2.3% 0.0%
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot 19% 22% 21% 34% 3% 2.8% 11.1% 4.4% 81.7% 0.0%
Saint-Jean 16% 31% 10% 3% 38% 3% 0.1% 29.2% 0.0% 0.0% 70.7% 0.0%
Saint-Laurent 22% 59% 14% 2% 3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel 17% 66% 9% 4% 4% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint-Maurice--Champlain 23% 43% 6% 1% 27% 0.3% 95.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.6%
Salaberry--Suroît 15% 31% 11% 41% 3% 0.1% 21.2% 0.0% 78.7% 0.0%
Shefford 20% 40% 6% 4% 31% 0% 0.5% 74.7% 0.0% 0.0% 24.9% 0.0%
Sherbrooke 15% 32% 30% 2% 18% 2% 0.0% 59.9% 36.3% 0.0% 3.8% 0.0%
Vaudreuil--Soulanges 18% 49% 14% 3% 16% 0.0% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Terrebonne 13% 30% 10% 1% 43% 3% 0.0% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 87.5% 0.0%
Trois-Rivières 29% 29% 18% 0% 20% 3% 47.9% 41.5% 0.3% 0.0% 10.3% 0.0%
Ville-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--Île-des-Soeurs 14% 53% 20% 4% 7% 3% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Vimy 15% 49% 13% 20% 3% 0.0% 99.7% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
Ajax 31% 53% 15% 0% 1.1% 98.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing 28% 23% 44% 1% 3% 2.5% 0.4% 97.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill 40% 41% 11% 8% 41.8% 58.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Barrie--Innisfil 47% 29% 20% 4% 97.4% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte 43% 33% 21% 4% 85.9% 14.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Bay of Quinte/Baie de Quinte 39% 38% 18% 2% 3% 52.5% 47.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Beaches--East York 16% 51% 23% 2% 8% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Brampton Centre/Brampton-Centre 32% 44% 24% 10.7% 88.7% 0.6%
Brampton East/Brampton-Est 24% 40% 29% 7% 1.7% 91.9% 6.4% 0.0%
Brampton North/Brampton-Nord 32% 47% 21% 5.2% 94.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Brampton South/Brampton-Sud 29% 43% 20% 7% 5.5% 94.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Brampton West/Brampton-Ouest 25% 46% 21% 8% 0.9% 99.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Brantford--Brant 38% 32% 24% 2% 4% 73.9% 24.5% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound 49% 29% 13% 5% 4% 98.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Burlington 34% 42% 13% 3% 8% 19.6% 80.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cambridge 32% 39% 21% 3% 5% 22.1% 77.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Chatham-Kent--Leamington 49% 30% 17% 0% 3% 98.3% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davenport 11% 38% 43% 1% 7% 0.0% 28.5% 71.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Don Valley East/Don Valley-Est 26% 54% 13% 7% 0.3% 99.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Don Valley North/Don Valley-Nord 37% 44% 11% 0% 7% 22.4% 77.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Don Valley West/Don Valley-Ouest 33% 49% 10% 1% 7% 4.1% 95.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dufferin--Caledon 45% 32% 13% 6% 4% 93.1% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Durham 46% 25% 20% 8% 99.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Eglinton--Lawrence 35% 47% 11% 1% 7% 8.8% 91.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elgin--Middlesex--London 54% 22% 20% 1% 3% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Essex 43% 17% 36% 0% 3% 79.9% 0.0% 20.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Etobicoke Centre/Etobicoke-Centre 37% 47% 10% 7% 13.4% 86.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Etobicoke--Lakeshore 31% 46% 14% 2% 7% 5.0% 95.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Etobicoke North/Etobicoke-Nord 24% 56% 12% 8% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Flamborough--Glanbrook 37% 37% 20% 2% 4% 48.4% 51.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Glengarry--Prescott--Russell 38% 47% 12% 0% 3% 17.1% 82.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Guelph 21% 39% 15% 22% 3% 1.9% 97.7% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Haldimand--Norfolk 52% 25% 19% 4% 99.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock 52% 25% 16% 4% 3% 99.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hamilton Centre/Hamilton-Centre 16% 27% 50% 3% 4% 0.0% 0.3% 99.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Hamilton East--Stoney Creek/Hamilton-Est--Stoney
29% Creek34% 31% 3% 4% 20.8% 53.8% 25.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Hamilton Mountain 29% 31% 36% 1% 3% 12.3% 20.2% 67.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas/Hamilton-Ouest--Ancaster--Dundas
29% 45% 20% 3% 3% 4.4% 95.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Hastings--Lennox and Addington 44% 36% 15% 2% 4% 80.9% 19.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Huron--Bruce 51% 32% 14% 3% 98.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Kanata--Carleton 37% 39% 17% 4% 4% 41.7% 58.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Kenora 36% 29% 31% 1% 3% 64.7% 15.0% 20.3% 0.0% 0.0%
King--Vaughan 44% 38% 10% 0% 8% 74.5% 25.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kingston and the Islands/Kingston et les Îles 21% 44% 26% 4% 5% 0.5% 98.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kitchener Centre/Kitchener-Centre 30% 17% 27% 21% 4% 66.6% 2.5% 29.0% 1.9% 0.0%
Kitchener--Conestoga 41% 38% 12% 5% 3% 63.6% 36.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kitchener South--Hespeler/Kitchener-Sud--Hespeler
36% 39% 15% 6% 4% 36.1% 63.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex 52% 24% 18% 2% 5% 99.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lanark--Frontenac--Kingston 51% 23% 16% 7% 3% 99.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Leeds--Grenville--Thousand Islands and Rideau 52%Lakes/Leeds--Grenville--Thousand
25% 15% 5% Islands et3%
Rideau Lakes 99.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
London--Fanshawe 27% 26% 44% 4% 1.5% 1.0% 97.5% 0.0%
London North Centre/London-Centre-Nord 26% 41% 26% 3% 5% 4.1% 93.1% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0%
London West/London-Ouest 30% 42% 24% 4% 9.9% 89.3% 0.9% 0.0%
Markham--Stouffville 40% 40% 11% 1% 8% 50.6% 49.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Markham--Thornhill 35% 47% 11% 0% 7% 8.1% 91.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Markham--Unionville 55% 33% 11% 1% 98.9% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Milton 37% 44% 10% 1% 8% 20.4% 79.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississauga Centre/Mississauga-Centre 30% 48% 13% 0% 9% 2.1% 97.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississauga East--Cooksville/Mississauga-Est--Cooksville
34% 46% 12% 8% 8.3% 91.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississauga--Erin Mills 33% 46% 13% 0% 8% 7.9% 92.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ont.

Mississauga--Lakeshore 38% 41% 12% 1% 8% 35.0% 65.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%


Mississauga--Malton 32% 48% 19% 0% 4.7% 95.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Mississauga--Streetsville 34% 43% 14% 1% 8% 15.3% 84.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nepean 36% 44% 15% 2% 3% 18.6% 81.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Newmarket--Aurora 39% 37% 14% 2% 8% 62.2% 37.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara Centre/Niagara-Centre 33% 34% 29% 1% 3% 39.3% 47.7% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara Falls 41% 34% 21% 1% 3% 76.5% 23.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara West/Niagara-Ouest 49% 31% 14% 2% 3% 97.6% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nickel Belt 23% 38% 34% 1% 4% 1.9% 67.2% 30.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Nipissing--Timiskaming 29% 40% 23% 7% 11.3% 87.6% 1.2% 0.0%
Northumberland--Peterborough South/Northumberland--Peterborough-Sud
42% 35% 15% 4% 4% 77.8% 22.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakville 40% 39% 11% 2% 8% 54.8% 45.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakville North--Burlington/Oakville-Nord--Burlington
39% 41% 12% 0% 8% 41.8% 58.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oshawa 39% 20% 31% 2% 8% 86.6% 0.3% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Ottawa Centre/Ottawa-Centre 17% 42% 35% 3% 4% 0.1% 76.6% 23.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Orléans 30% 53% 14% 0% 3% 0.9% 99.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ottawa South/Ottawa-Sud 26% 51% 19% 1% 3% 0.4% 99.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Ottawa--Vanier 19% 50% 24% 3% 4% 0.0% 99.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Ottawa West--Nepean/Ottawa-Ouest--Nepean 29% 44% 21% 2% 3% 5.1% 94.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Oxford 52% 18% 22% 4% 4% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Parkdale--High Park 16% 41% 33% 3% 8% 0.1% 82.6% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Parry Sound--Muskoka 44% 29% 13% 12% 1% 96.1% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Perth--Wellington 50% 28% 19% 3% 99.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Peterborough--Kawartha 39% 33% 18% 6% 3% 76.1% 23.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pickering--Uxbridge 31% 45% 16% 9% 5.2% 94.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke 58% 19% 17% 1% 4% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond Hill 43% 36% 12% 0% 8% 79.4% 20.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Carleton 49% 36% 11% 0% 3% 92.8% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Catharines 36% 37% 21% 2% 3% 45.7% 53.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Toronto--St. Paul's 24% 47% 18% 3% 8% 0.4% 99.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sarnia--Lambton 53% 19% 24% 0% 4% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sault Ste. Marie 34% 38% 25% 3% 32.6% 65.7% 1.7% 0.0%
Scarborough--Agincourt 38% 45% 10% 1% 7% 22.5% 77.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Scarborough Centre/Scarborough-Centre 25% 52% 14% 9% 0.2% 99.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Scarborough--Guildwood 24% 56% 13% 7% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Scarborough North/Scarborough-Nord 31% 48% 14% 6% 3.0% 97.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Scarborough--Rouge Park 22% 58% 13% 7% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Scarborough Southwest/Scarborough-Sud-Ouest23% 52% 17% 1% 7% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Simcoe--Grey 46% 31% 13% 7% 3% 95.6% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Simcoe North/Simcoe-Nord 41% 32% 18% 5% 3% 84.7% 15.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Spadina--Fort York 23% 43% 25% 1% 8% 1.1% 97.8% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry 56% 24% 16% 0% 4% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sudbury 23% 40% 31% 2% 4% 1.6% 83.9% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Thornhill 50% 30% 12% 0% 7% 98.9% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Thunder Bay--Rainy River 31% 34% 31% 0% 3% 27.6% 48.5% 23.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Thunder Bay--Superior North/Thunder Bay--Supérieur-Nord
28% 42% 23% 4% 3% 5.7% 93.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Timmins--James Bay/Timmins--Baie James 29% 24% 42% 5% 4.8% 1.0% 94.2% 0.0%
Toronto Centre/Toronto-Centre 13% 46% 23% 11% 7% 0.0% 99.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Toronto--Danforth 13% 42% 35% 3% 7% 0.0% 79.8% 20.2% 0.0% 0.0%
University--Rosedale 19% 45% 24% 5% 7% 0.1% 99.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Vaughan--Woodbridge 36% 44% 11% 1% 8% 18.2% 81.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Waterloo 26% 47% 18% 5% 4% 1.1% 98.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wellington--Halton Hills 50% 27% 11% 8% 4% 99.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Whitby 37% 37% 17% 2% 8% 48.3% 51.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Willowdale 38% 42% 12% 0% 8% 31.8% 68.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Windsor--Tecumseh 30% 32% 35% 0% 4% 17.1% 31.3% 51.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Windsor West/Windsor-Ouest 20% 34% 42% 4% 0.1% 16.1% 83.8% 0.0%
York Centre/York-Centre 40% 43% 10% 7% 35.7% 64.3% 0.0% 0.0%
York--Simcoe 51% 27% 18% 3% 99.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
York South--Weston/York-Sud--Weston 20% 54% 19% 1% 7% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Humber River--Black Creek 17% 56% 20% 1% 6% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Brandon--Souris 57% 17% 21% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley
37% 38% 16% 0% 8% 43.8% 56.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Churchill--Keewatinook Aski 12% 28% 55% 1% 4% 0.0% 0.1% 99.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Dauphin--Swan River--Neepawa 57% 18% 19% 2% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elmwood--Transcona 30% 16% 50% 0% 5% 1.0% 0.0% 99.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kildonan--St. Paul 37% 32% 27% 5% 70.9% 22.6% 6.5% 0.0%
Portage--Lisgar 64% 16% 15% 6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Man.

Provencher 58% 17% 18% 2% 6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%


Saint Boniface--Saint Vital/Saint-Boniface--Saint-Vital
25% 46% 22% 1% 5% 0.7% 99.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman 55% 16% 22% 2% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Winnipeg Centre/Winnipeg-Centre 10% 37% 47% 1% 5% 0.0% 11.9% 88.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Winnipeg North/Winnipeg-Nord 13% 51% 31% 0% 5% 0.0% 99.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Winnipeg South/Winnipeg-Sud 30% 45% 19% 1% 5% 2.8% 97.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Winnipeg South Centre/Winnipeg-Centre-Sud 22% 47% 23% 2% 5% 0.0% 99.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Battlefords--Lloydminster 65% 11% 17% 2% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cypress Hills--Grasslands 68% 9% 15% 2% 6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River/Desnethé--Missinippi--Rivière
29% 31% 34% Churchill
2% 4% 19.0% 27.6% 53.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek/Sentier Carlton--Eagle
66% Creek9% 18% 2% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan 54% 12% 25% 2% 7% 99.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Prince Albert 55% 15% 23% 2% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Regina--Lewvan 41% 17% 35% 3% 5% 72.4% 0.0% 27.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Sask.

Regina--Qu'Appelle 51% 16% 26% 2% 5% 99.8% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%


Regina--Wascana 37% 37% 19% 2% 5% 49.1% 50.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Saskatoon--Grasswood 41% 20% 32% 1% 5% 86.3% 0.1% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Saskatoon--University 40% 16% 36% 2% 6% 67.9% 0.0% 32.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Saskatoon West/Saskatoon-Ouest 33% 19% 39% 2% 6% 24.7% 0.2% 75.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Souris--Moose Mountain 73% 9% 14% 5% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Yorkton--Melville 63% 11% 18% 2% 6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Banff--Airdrie 42% 15% 19% 1% 8% 15% 99.7% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Battle River--Crowfoot 70% 10% 13% 1% 6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bow River 68% 11% 14% 6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Calgary Centre/Calgary-Centre 47% 32% 20% 1% 95.1% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Calgary Confederation 41% 27% 21% 3% 7% 94.9% 4.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Calgary Forest Lawn 45% 28% 20% 1% 7% 97.3% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Calgary Heritage 56% 19% 18% 1% 7% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Calgary Midnapore 59% 16% 18% 1% 7% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Calgary Nose Hill 54% 20% 18% 1% 6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Calgary Rocky Ridge 53% 22% 17% 0% 6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Calgary Shepard 60% 15% 17% 1% 7% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Calgary Signal Hill 55% 20% 17% 1% 7% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Calgary Skyview 39% 36% 18% 1% 6% 65.6% 34.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Edmonton Centre/Edmonton-Centre 25% 42% 27% 6% 1.6% 96.8% 1.5% 0.0%
Edmonton Griesbach 36% 23% 34% 0% 6% 57.5% 1.5% 40.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Edmonton Manning 41% 27% 26% 6% 91.4% 5.1% 3.6% 0.0%
Edmonton Mill Woods 36% 39% 18% 6% 35.3% 64.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Alb.

Edmonton Riverbend 42% 27% 24% 1% 6% 95.6% 3.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Edmonton Strathcona 22% 16% 56% 0% 6% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Edmonton West/Edmonton-Ouest 45% 25% 23% 6% 99.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Edmonton--Wetaskiwin 57% 17% 20% 6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Foothills 67% 11% 14% 1% 7% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fort McMurray--Cold Lake 65% 14% 13% 0% 7% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grande Prairie--Mackenzie 69% 10% 15% 6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lakeland 69% 10% 15% 0% 6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lethbridge 51% 19% 24% 6% 99.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner 64% 12% 17% 0% 6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Peace River--Westlock 65% 12% 16% 1% 7% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Red Deer--Mountain View 65% 11% 16% 8% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Red Deer--Lacombe 65% 10% 17% 8% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Albert--Edmonton 46% 24% 24% 6% 99.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0%
Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan 59% 15% 20% 0% 6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sturgeon River--Parkland 63% 12% 18% 6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Yellowhead 67% 11% 15% 7% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abbotsford 51% 24% 21% 0% 5% 99.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Burnaby North--Seymour/Burnaby-Nord--Seymour
28% 31% 29% 6% 5% 24.4% 45.2% 30.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Burnaby South/Burnaby-Sud 27% 25% 43% 0% 5% 3.3% 0.9% 95.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Cariboo--Prince George 53% 22% 19% 1% 5% 99.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Okanagan--Similkameen--Nicola 48% 27% 20% 0% 5% 99.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Chilliwack--Hope 50% 23% 20% 2% 6% 99.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cloverdale--Langley City 34% 37% 24% 4% 36.1% 61.5% 2.4% 0.0%
Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam 31% 37% 28% 4% 20.7% 67.2% 12.1% 0.0%
Courtenay--Alberni 30% 11% 48% 9% 2% 1.3% 0.0% 98.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Cowichan--Malahat--Langford 23% 15% 43% 15% 4% 0.8% 0.0% 99.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Delta 33% 40% 21% 2% 4% 20.3% 79.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Fleetwood--Port Kells 30% 39% 26% 0% 5% 10.6% 84.4% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo 41% 32% 19% 4% 4% 84.8% 14.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Kelowna--Lake Country 46% 34% 16% 0% 5% 91.8% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kootenay--Columbia 45% 11% 38% 1% 5% 78.8% 0.0% 21.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Langley--Aldergrove 44% 28% 22% 2% 5% 97.2% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon 42% 29% 21% 3% 5% 94.5% 5.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Nanaimo--Ladysmith 23% 12% 31% 30% 4% 8.6% 0.1% 58.8% 32.5% 0.0%
New Westminster--Burnaby 19% 25% 50% 2% 5% 0.0% 0.2% 99.8% 0.0% 0.0%
North Okanagan--Shuswap 49% 25% 19% 2% 5% 99.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Vancouver 24% 44% 22% 6% 5% 0.7% 98.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
BC

Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge 31% 32% 33% 4% 26.7% 28.5% 44.8% 0.0%
BC Port Moody--Coquitlam 28% 31% 37% 4% 10.2% 21.4% 68.4% 0.0%
Prince George--Peace River--Northern Rockies
69% 13% 12% 0% 6% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond Centre/Richmond-Centre 45% 30% 20% 0% 4% 96.3% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke 16% 16% 42% 21% 4% 0.0% 0.1% 99.7% 0.2% 0.0%
Saanich--Gulf Islands 17% 15% 20% 44% 4% 2.1% 0.7% 5.2% 92.0% 0.0%
Skeena--Bulkley Valley 35% 14% 46% 0% 5% 9.8% 0.0% 90.2% 0.0% 0.0%
South Okanagan--West Kootenay/Okanagan-Sud--Kootenay-Ouest
35% 20% 40% 0% 5% 30.5% 0.2% 69.3% 0.0% 0.0%
South Surrey--White Rock/Surrey-Sud--White39%
Rock 40% 17% 4% 47.3% 52.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Steveston--Richmond East/Steveston--Richmond-Est
38% 37% 21% 1% 3% 55.5% 44.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Surrey Centre/Surrey-Centre 22% 41% 29% 4% 4% 0.8% 91.1% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Surrey--Newton 17% 46% 34% 4% 0.0% 93.4% 6.6% 0.0%
Vancouver Centre/Vancouver-Centre 17% 43% 29% 5% 5% 0.0% 94.7% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Vancouver East/Vancouver-Est 9% 20% 59% 8% 4% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Vancouver Granville 24% 34% 36% 1% 5% 3.2% 39.8% 57.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Island--Powell River 30% 12% 45% 9% 4% 3.6% 0.0% 96.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Vancouver Kingsway 16% 25% 55% 0% 4% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Vancouver Quadra 25% 44% 21% 6% 4% 0.7% 98.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Vancouver South/Vancouver-Sud 29% 43% 24% 4% 4.4% 94.6% 1.0% 0.0%
Victoria 10% 20% 41% 25% 4% 0.0% 0.3% 98.8% 0.9% 0.0%
West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky34%
Country32% 18% 11% 5% 57.4% 41.5% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Yukon 35% 30% 33% 2% 70.1% 17.4% 12.4% 0.0%
Terr.

Northwest Territories/Territoires du Nord-Ouest


25% 42% 31% 2% 1.4% 96.9% 1.7% 0.0%
Nunavut 26% 32% 41% 0.3% 3.1% 96.7%

*due to a general lack of polls, the projections for the three territories use
the federal vote intentions.

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