APRIL 2011

Summary

Economic Indicators
Employment
Texas U.S.

Texas

The Texas economy continues to grow at a moderate pace, with employment expanding at a 3.1 percent annual rate in February. Texas housing starts edged up, although other housing market indicators showed weakness in February. Real Texas exports held steady at high levels in January. The energy sector remains strong, supported by a rise in oil prices. Texas manufacturing expanded in March, according to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.
% annual growth rate

7

5
3 1

Texas gained 26,900 jobs in February after adding 14,400 in January. Current Texas employment stands at 10.48 million. The Texas unemployment rate was 8.2 percent in February, down slightly from 8.3 percent in January. The Texas rate remains below the U.S. rate, which was 8.9 percent in February.

-1
-3 -5

-7
2007 2008 2009 2010

Existing-home sales

Monthly Existing-Home Sales
Houston Dallas Austin San Antonio

Texas total existing-home sales fell 8.7 percent in February. Sales in Houston, Dallas, Austin and San Antonio were down from January levels. Texas single-family housing permits fell 13.8 percent from January to February. Housing starts in Texas edged up 2.0 percent in February and were 5 percent higher than a year earlier. The supply of housing inventory in Texas was 7.6 months in February, down slightly from 7.7 months in January.

7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 2007 2008

2009

2010

2000 dollars (millions)

Monthly Real Texas Exports

16,000
15,000

14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 2007 2008 2009 2010

Monthly real Texas exports held steady in January after climbing 6.1 percent in December. The January level of real exports was 27 percent higher than a year earlier.

$/barrel

Crude Oil Prices

$/million Btu

Natural Gas Prices

Active rigs

Texas Rig Count

$140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40
$20

$14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4
$2

1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300
200

2007

2008

2009

2010

2007

2008

2009

2010

2007

2008

2009

2010

West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices rose 14.9 percent to $102.94 per barrel in March. The price was up 27 percent year-over-year. Natural gas prices fell to $3.97 per million Btu in March, down 2.9 percent from February. The price was 7 percent lower than in March 2010. The rig count for Texas edged up by 1 rig to 748 in March. The rig count was up 26 percent from a year earlier.

Texas Leading Index Components
1.2
Net change in Texas Leading Index

The Dallas Fed’s Texas Leading Index, which uses key economic indicators to forecast future economic activity, rose 1.2 percent from November through January.

0.1

Texas value of the dollar 0.6 0.2 U.S. leading index Real oil price Well permits
New unemployment claims 0.5

0.0 -0.2

Texas stock index Average weekly hours

0.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4

Three-month % change

Index

Production Index - Texas Manufacturing Texas factory activity increased in March, according to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose sharply to 24, its highest level in nearly a year. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas conducts the monthly Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey to obtain a timely assessment of the state’s factory activity.

30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 2007 2008 2009 2010

Note: Data may not match previously published numbers due to data revisions. Sources: Employment: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Texas Workforce Commission; seasonal and other adjustments by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Housing: Multiple Listing Service; U.S. Census Bureau; Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ. All housing data are seasonally adjusted. Exports: U.S. Census Bureau; World Institute for Strategic Economic Research; seasonal and other adjustments by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Energy: Wall Street Journal; Henry Hub; Baker Hughes. Texas Leading Index: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Texas Manufacturing Production Index: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Data are seasonally adjusted. Questions can be addressed to Emily Kerr at emily.kerr@dal.frb.org. Texas Economic Indicators is released on the first Wednesday of every month and can be found online at www.dallasfed.org/research/indicators/index.cfm.

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