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magyar műanyagiparban
Bűdy László
Budapest
2011. Március 30.
Agenda
1. Krízis elmélet
2. A válság számokban
3. A magyar műanyagipar számokban
4
4. Következtetések
Válság elmélet
“No problem can be solved from the same level of
consciousness that created itit.” – Einstein
15
10
5
%
-5
-10
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
years
China, People's Republic of India Russian Federation United States European Union World
A válság számokban / GDP
10
2
%
-2
-4
-6
-8
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
years
120,00
100,00
80,00
U SD /b arre
60,00
40,00
20,00
0,00
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
A válság számokban / Oil price
120
110
100
U SD /b arr
90
80
70
60
February-11 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 August-11 Sep-10 Oct-10 November-11 December-11 January-11 February-11 Mar-11
(Euro/mt
850
950
1050
1150
1250
1350
1450
Country (All)
Average of week 9
10
Average of Week 1
Average of week 11
Average of week 12
Average of week 13
Average of week 14
Average of week 15
Average of week 16
Average of week 17
Average of week 18
Data2 Average prices (€)
Average of week 19
Average of week 2
20
Average of week 2
21
Average of week 2
22
Average of week 2
23
Average of week 2
24
Average of week 2
25
Average of week 2
26
Average of week 2
27
Average of week 2
28
Name of grade type (All)
Average of week 2
29
Average of week 3
30
Average of week 3
31
Average of week 3
32
Average of week 3
33
Resin (All)
Average of week 3
34
Average of week 3
35
Average of week 3
36
Data
Average of week 3
37
Average of week 3
38
Average of week 3
39
Average of week 4
40
Average of week 4
41
Average of week 4
42
Average of week 4
43
Average of week 4
44
Average of week 4
45
Average of week 4
46
Average of week 4
47
Average of week 4
48
Average of week 4
49
Average of week 5
50
Average of week 2
Average of week 3
Average of week 4
Average of week 5
Average of week 6
Average of week 7
Average of week 8
Average oof forecasted_week 9
Average off forecasted_week 10
Average off forecasted_week 11
Average off forecasted_week 12
Average off forecasted_week 13
Average off forecasted_week 144
alapanyag árak
Resin Type
LDPE
HDPE
PPcopo
PPhomo
A válság számokban / polimer kereslet
1600
1400
1200
1000
LD+LLD
(kt)
800 HD+MD
PP
600
400
200
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 F
Európa a válság vesztese?
25,0%
20,0%
15,0%
10,0%
5,0%
0,0%
-5,0%
-10,0%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
60%
50%
Packaging
40%
Construction
30% Automotive
E/E
20%
Others
10%
0%
a
ia
ia
ia
ia
nd
a
a
ic
tiv
ar
ni
ni
en
ak
an
ar
bl
la
ng
ua
to
La
lg
ov
ov
Po
m
pu
Es
Bu
th
Hu
Ro
Sl
Sl
Re
Li
h
ec
Cz
A magyar műanyagipar helyzete
1% 7%
11%
15%
10% Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Estonia
1%
Hungary
Latvia
Lithuania
Poland
Romania
14%
Slovakia
Slovenia
1%
3%
37%
A magyar műanyagipar helyzete
4% 9%
10%
12%
Bulgaria
11% Czech Republic
Estonia
3%
Hungary
Latvia
Lithuania
Poland
12%
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
2%
3%
34%
A magyar műanyagipar helyzete
38%
Packaging
Construction
Automotive
E/E
55% Others
0%
0% 7%
A magyar műanyagipar helyzete
14%
0%
0%
10%
Packaging
Construction
Automotive
E/E
Others
76%
A magyar műanyagipar helyzete
A világ
g megváltozott
g
• Az alapanyagok ára folyamatosan nő,
• Növekvő verseny a hazai piacokon is
• Élesedő verseny az erőforrásokért,
• Alacsony fedezet,
Újj követelmények
y