f

,

'

".

-

.

INFOMEMO

JUN

072004

1-04/006916

ef-f'6

5

'J

'-'j,,'.\

FOR:SECRETARYOFDEFENSE

;::1

FROM:RyanHenry,PrincipalDeputyUnderSecretary

of

DefenseforSUBJECT:"WhatDidNotHappen?"(U)Youaskedforalist

of

thethingsforwhichweplanned

in

OperationIRAQf'f<REEDOMthatdidnothappen.

"It

Turkey,Iran,

or

Israelare

drawn

intotheconflict

or

becometooadventurous.

"It

SaddamusesWMDagainstU.S.

or

alliedforces.

"It

SaddamattacksIsrael;Israelretaliates.

..

Iraqdescendsintoanarchy.

..

Iraqbecomesbalkanized.

"It

Thereisaprisoner

of

war

or

hostagecrisis.

..

SaddamusesWMDagainstrebelliousareasinIraq.

..

U.S.forcespursuehighvaluetargetsintoSyria

or

Iran.,

..

Thereiswidespreadvigilantejustice.

DECLASSIFIED

AUT!-l0R!TV

F0

12958

JAN

242008

Hel.

UeciasS

Br

?,

<,

"'C

Oi\,

WHS

•

'

1<.,>

,>.

.••

Classified

by

DUSD

NESA

Denved

from

multJple

sources.

Declassify

on:

XlPrepared

by'

8,11

8ntncr,

NESA,692-49Q6

OSD

77862-04

08-M-1505

 

•

·'

Shi'a

holysitesaredamagedordestroyed.Therearemassfoodshortages.

..

Therearelargenumbers

of

internallydisplacedpeopleandinternationalrefugees."FortressBaghdad"holdsoutindefinitely.TherearemassIraqicasualties.Theoilinfrastructureisseverelydamagedordestroyed.Disruption

of

oilproductioncauseswidespreadeconomicproblems.Anotherstate(e.g.NorthKorea)takesadvantage

of

U.S.focusonIraq.

..

Saddam'sintelligenceservicesconductunconventionalstrikesagainstU.S.forcesintheMiddleEast

or

elsewhere.

..

WeareunabletofindSaddam.-Saddamescapes.

..

U.S.focusonIraqweakensGWOTeffortsworldwide;terroristsattackbroadly.

..

Thereisadramaticsurgeinterroristrecruitment.

..

SaddamisabletopersuadetheworldthattheU.S.iswagingawaronIslam.

..

Arevolt

of

the"Arabstreet"inPakistan,SaudiArabia,

or

Jordancausespoliticalinstability.

cam

DECLASSIFIEO958

AUTI-10RI1'Y

EO

12

'JAN

24200&

Chlet,

oeclas&o'v

lJir.

&

Ree.

I,

08-M-1505