f

,

 

.

-

.

INFOMEMO

JUN

072004

1-04/006916

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FOR:SECRETARYOFDEFENSE

;

FROM:RyanHenry,PrincipalDeputyUnderSecretary

of

DefenseforSUBJECT: WhatDidNotHappen? (U)Youaskedforalist

of

thethingsforwhichweplanned

in

OperationIRAQf f<REEDOMthatdidnothappen.

 It

Turkey,Iran,

or

Israelare

drawn

intotheconflict

or

becometooadventurous.

 It

SaddamusesWMDagainstU.S.

or

alliedforces.

 It

SaddamattacksIsrael;Israelretaliates.

 

Iraqdescendsintoanarchy.

 

Iraqbecomesbalkanized.

 It

Thereisaprisoner

of

war

or

hostagecrisis.

 

SaddamusesWMDagainstrebelliousareasinIraq.

 

U.S.forcespursuehighvaluetargetsintoSyria

or

Iran.,

 

Thereiswidespreadvigilantejustice.

DECLASSIFIED

AUT -l0R TV

 

12958

JAN

242008

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by

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NESA 692 49Q6

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77862-04

08-M-1505

 

 

hi a

holysitesaredamagedordestroyed.Therearemassfoodshortages.

 

Therearelargenumbers

of

internallydisplacedpeopleandinternationalrefugees. FortressBaghdad holdsoutindefinitely.TherearemassIraqicasualties.Theoilinfrastructureisseverelydamagedordestroyed.Disruption

of

oilproductioncauseswidespreadeconomicproblems.Anotherstate(e.g.NorthKorea)takesadvantage

of

U.S.focusonIraq.

 

Saddam sintelligenceservicesconductunconventionalstrikesagainstU.S.forcesintheMiddleEast

or

elsewhere.

 

WeareunabletofindSaddam.-Saddamescapes.

 

U.S.focusonIraqweakensGWOTeffortsworldwide;terroristsattackbroadly.

 

Thereisadramaticsurgeinterroristrecruitment.

 

SaddamisabletopersuadetheworldthattheU.S.iswagingawaronIslam.

 

Arevolt

of

the Arabstreet inPakistan,SaudiArabia,

or

Jordancausespoliticalinstability.

 m

DECLASSIFIEO958

AUTI-10RI1 Y

 

12

 JAN

24200

Chlet,

oeclas o v

lJir.

 

Ree.

 

08-M-1505