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FOR: SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
FROM: Ryan Henry, Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for SUBJECT: "What Did Not Happen?" (U) You asked for a list of the things for which we planned in Operation IRAQf'f<REEDOM that did not happen.
Turkey, Iran, or Israel are drawn into the conflict or become too adventurous. Saddam uses WMD against U.S. or allied forces. Saddam attacks Israel; Israel retaliates.
.. Iraq descends into anarchy. .. Iraq becomes balkanized.
AUT!-l0R!TV F0 12958
There is a prisoner of war or hostage crisis.
.. Saddam uses WMD against rebellious areas in Iraq. .. U.S. forces pursue high value targets into Syria or Iran. , .. There is widespread vigilante justice.
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Classified by DUSD NESA Denved from multJple sources. Declassify on: Xl
Prepared by' 8,11 8ntncr, NESA, 692-49Q6
Shi'a holy sites are damaged or destroyed. There are mass food shortages. .. There are large numbers of internally displaced people and international refugees. "Fortress Baghdad" holds out indefinitely. There are mass Iraqi casualties. The oil infrastructure is severely damaged or destroyed. Disruption of oil production causes widespread economic problems. Another state (e.g. North Korea) takes advantage of U.S. focus on Iraq. .. Saddam's intelligence services conduct unconventional strikes against U.S. forces in the Middle East or elsewhere. .. We are unable to find Saddam. Saddam escapes.
.. U.S. focus on Iraq weakens GWOT efforts worldwide; terrorists attack broadly. .. There is a dramatic surge in terrorist recruitment. .. Saddam is able to persuade the world that the U.S. is waging a war on Islam. .. A revolt of the "Arab street" in Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, or Jordan causes political instability.
DECLASSIFIEO 958 AUTI-10RI1'Y EO 12
Chlet, oeclas&o'v lJir. & Ree. I , 08-M-1505
Coordinated Palestinian attacks on Israel precipitate a high-profile response. Special Operations Forces fail to neutralize or contain conventional forces in northern/western Iraq. There is anned conflict with the Badr Corps during major combat operations. Gulf states deny U.S. forces the freedom of action required to conduct combat or post-combat operations. Iraqi missile attacks cause mass casualties in Kuwait or Saudi Arabia.
DECLASSIFIED EO 12958
"nt,;,l, ueclass6' ')ir. & Rae. Div, WHS
Classified by DUSD NESA
Denved m multiple sourccs.
Prepared by: BIll Bru..,-, NESA, 6924906