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APRIL/MAY 2011 Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A.

Inside This Issue Strouse Realty Group
American Dream Realty
> LOCAL MARKET TRENDS ..................... 1 5522 Scotts Valley Dr.
> MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK ............... 2 Scotts Valley, CA 95066
> HOME STATISTICS .............................. 2 (831) 338-6481
Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.com
> FORECLOSURE STATS ........................ 3
http://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com
> CONDO STATISTICS ............................ 3 DRE #01228878
> ANNUAL TABLES ................................. 4

The Real Estate Report
local market trends SANTA CRUZ COUNTY
Trends at a Glance
(Single-f amily Homes)
Mar 11 Feb 11 Mar 10
Median Price: $ 480,000 $ 459,900 $ 530,000
Av erage Price: $ 534,374 $ 619,199 $ 648,201
Units Sold: 167 95 118
Home Sales Up Third Month in a Row Inv entory : 580 560 569
Sale/List Price Ratio: 97.8% 96.4% 97.9%
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were up in MORE STATISTICS… Day s on Market: 101 94 72
March, year-over-year, for the third month in a row: Year-over-year, home inventory was up for the Day s of Inv entory 104 159 144
41.5%. tenth month in a row: 1.9%.
The median price for single-family, re-sale homes The sales price to list price ratio turned around last
in Santa Cruz County was down 9.4% year-over- month and gained 1.4 points to 97.8%.
year, while the average price declined 17.6%.
Pending sales were off for the eighth month in a
SALES MOMENTUM… row: 4.3%.
although still negative, started trending upward last
All these statistics are year-over-year.
month and is now at –9%.
Our momentum stats are calculated using a 12- IN THE CONDO MARKET…
month moving average to eliminate seasonality. By the median price was down 31.1% year-over-year.
comparing this year’s 12-month moving average to Condos sales were up 3.6% year-over-year.
last year’s, we get a percentage showing market
momentum. Pending sales were down for the seventh month in
a row year-over-year: 20%.
PENDING MOMENTUM… Inventory, on the other hand, increased for the
a harbinger of future sales, while still positive, has
been trending downward. Last month the number tenth month in a row: up 29.5% year-over-year.
was +1%, a decline from +4% the month before. Remember, the real estate market is a matter of
neighborhoods and houses. No two are the same.
PRICING MOMENTUM… For complete information on a particular neighbor-
after peaking at +12% last August, has also been hood or property, call.
trending downward and is now at 0%.

Santa Cruz County Homes: Sales Momentum
60.0%

40.0%

20.0%

0.0%
0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FM
-20.0% 6 7 8 9 0 1

-40.0%

-60.0%
Sales Pending Median © 2010 rereport.com

Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A. | Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.com | (831) 338-6481
The Real Estate Report

Mortgage Rate Outlook
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates May 1, 2011 -- The economy is starting to show some As the glass begins to seem more likely to be half full
additional signs of an expanding recovery, and one than empty, the likelihood is that interest rates will
01-11 more resilient to external shocks. That said, many tend to be somewhat higher on balance than lower. A
10-10 challenges to overcome still remain before we get to stock market finding its footing is one expression of
07-10
a "full recovery", and if consumer moods are any that as money moved more confidently into risk and
04-10
01-10 indication, rising gasoline prices are starting to create away from safety.
10-09 some considerable headwinds.
Concerned about risk, the Federal Reserve and other
07-09
04-09 HSH.com's overall mortgage tracker -- our weekly regulators released for comment and feedback a
01-09 Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) -- found that paper to address financial risk. Ultimately this will
10-08 the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages include a definition of a Qualified Residential Mort-
07-08 rose by six basis points (.06%) to finish the week at gage, expected to be a risk-free item indeed, requir-
04-08 5.17%. A key component of the first-time homebuyer ing borrowers to have a deep equity position and
01-08
market, FHA-backed 30-year fixed-rate mortgages great credit, among other risk-controlling features.
10-07
07-07 increased by five basis points to land at 4.81%. Eventually, the QRM will be the only loan bundled
04-07 ARMs are starting to regain some favor in the mar- into securities with no loss reserves held back by the
01-07 ket, and Hybrid 5/1 ARMs, perhaps the most pre- issuer or originator. In theory, a narrow definition will
10-06 ferred alternative to the traditional 30-year FRM expand the number of borrowers who fall outside the
07-06 (notably for jumbo buyers) increased a full tenth- boundaries, and that audience should be large
04-06
01-06
percentage point (.10%), beginning April at an aver- enough as to attract a response from lenders eager
10-05 age of 3.84%. to lend money. However, it is by no means clear at
07-05 this moment whether a more robust market for non-
Mortgage rates are pushed higher by improving
04-05 QRM mortgages will form, or if the market will go the
01-05 growth and especially improving inflation. A still-soft
other way, originating only (or mostly) QRM-level
3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% job market and weak housing markets act as a coun-
mortgages, sharply limiting the availability of credit to
terbalance to that upward pressure, while the events
only the best possible borrowers.
overseas do add degree of uncertainty to the outlook.

The chart above shows the National
monthly average for 30-year fixed Santa Cruz County Homes - Prices & Sales
(3-month moving average—prices in $000's)
rate mortgages as compiled by
HSH.com. The average includes mort- $1,000 200

Single-family Hom e Sales
Median & Average Prices

gages of all sizes, including conforming, $900 180
"expanded conforming," and jumbo. $800 160
$700 140
120
$600
100
$500
80
$400 60
$300 40
$200 20
$100 0
0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FM
7 8 9 0 1

Santa Cruz County - March 2011
Single-Family Homes % Change from Year Before
Price s Pr ice s
Citie s M e dian Ave rage Sale s Pe nd Inve n DOI SP/LP M e d Ave Sale s Pe nd2 Inve n
County $ 480,000 $ 534,374 167 311 580 104 97.8% -9.4% -17.6% 41.5% -4.3% 1.9%
Aptos $ 495,000 $ 669,571 7 12 34 146 100.6% -30.8% 9.8% 75.0% -33.3% -12.8%
Capitola $ 548,750 $ 618,567 6 8 20 100 97.3% -41.3% -51.4% -25.0% 100.0% 11.1%
Rio del Mar $ 719,500 $ 672,250 10 20 54 162 100.3% 24.1% 9.5% 0.0% 11.1% -11.5%
Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A. Seacliff $ 495,000 $ 519,750 4 5 10 75 95.5% -25.0% -27.5% -20.0% -28.6% -9.1%
Strouse Realty Group San Lorenzo Vly $ 270,000 $ 305,652 34 54 81 71 98.7% -20.4% -6.5% 161.5% 0.0% 1.3%
American Dream Realty Soquel $ 415,000 $ 466,667 6 13 35 175 98.0% -27.1% -35.0% -14.3% -23.5% 34.6%
5522 Scotts Valley Dr. Scotts Valley $ 585,000 $ 609,564 14 28 67 143 96.3% -21.0% -41.8% 133.3% 3.7% 11.7%
Scotts Valley, CA 95066 Santa Cruz $ 555,228 $ 756,326 36 74 132 110 96.8% -9.6% 5.8% 56.5% 8.8% 16.8%
(831) 338-6481 East County $ 275,000 $ 355,554 14 34 66 141 98.9% -8.3% -43.6% -17.6% -19.0% 10.0%
Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.com West County $ 568,500 $ 827,020 5 5 12 72 92.0% 9.4% 59.2% 150.0% 66.7% -33.3%
http://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com Watsonv ille $ 228,957 $ 238,154 16 49 28 52 99.0% -29.8% -28.1% -11.1% -5.8% 100.0%
DRE #01228878

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Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A.
Santa Cruz County Homes: Year-Over-Year Median Price Change
Strouse Realty Group
40.0% American Dream Realty
30.0% 5522 Scotts Valley Dr.
20.0% Scotts Valley, CA 95066
10.0% (831) 338-6481
0.0% Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.com
-10.0% 0 F MA M J J A S O N D 0 F MA M J J A S O N D 0 F MA M J J A S O N D 1 F MA M J J A S O N D 1 F M http://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com
-20.0% 7 8 9 0 1 DRE #01228878
-30.0%
-40.0%
-50.0%

FORECLOSURE STATISTICS
Notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure pro- In January, cancellations were up 17.7% year-over-
cess, in Santa Cruz County decreased 41.3% in Febru- year, and up 11.1% from January.
ary from the year before. Notices were down 14.3%
Properties going back to the bank dropped in February
from January.
from January by 7%. Year-over-year, properties going
Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auc- back to the back declined 11.7%. This is good news.
tion, and serve as the homeowner's final notice before
But, the total number of homes that have had a notice
sale, were up 13% year-over-year, and up 2.4% from
of default filed increased by 11.6% in February com-
January.
pared to February 2010. Although, they were down
After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are 9.4% from January.
only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be
The total number of homes scheduled for sale in-
cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan
creased by 1.8% from January, and, were up 5.5%
modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal re-
year-over-year.
quirement to re-file the notice after extended postpone-
ments. Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the Unfortunately, the total number of homes owned by the
bank will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically banks was up 24.97% year-over-year. Ouch!
an investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the
property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go
back to the bank and become part of that bank's REO
inventory.

Santa Cruz County Condos- Prices & Sales Table Definitions
(3-month moving average—prices in $000's) _______________
$700 45
s Median Price
e 40
c
ir $600 The price at which 50% of prices
P 35 were higher and 50%were lower.
e$500 s
g 30 le
a a
r 25 S
e$400
v o Average Price
A 20 d Add all prices and divide by the
n
&$300 15 o number of sales.
n C
a
i 10
d$200
e 5 SP/LP
M
$100 0 Sales price to list price ratio or the
0 FMAMJ J ASOND 0 FMAMJ J ASOND 0 FMAMJ J ASOND 1 FMAMJ J ASOND 1 F price paid for the property divided by
7 8 9 0 1 the asking price.

Santa Cruz County - March 2011 DOI
Days of Inventory, or how many
Condos/Townhomes % Change from Year Before days it would take to sell all the
Price s Price s property for sale at the current rate
Citie s M e dian Ave rage Sale s Pe nd Inve n DOI SP/LP M e d Ave Sale s Pe nd2 Inve n of sales.
County $ 250,000 $ 309,504 29 72 193 199 95.8% -31.1% -15.9% 3.6% -20.0% 29.5%
Aptos $ 212,500 $ 212,500 1 3 4 120 96.6% -54.0% -54.0% -50.0% -57.1% 33.3%
Capitola $ 311,500 $ 360,500 4 12 6 45 96.8% 9.3% 14.4% 33.3% 50.0% -50.0%
Pend
Property under contract to sell that
Rio del Mar $ 438,000 $ 438,000 2 3 31 464 91.6% -18.9% -18.9% 100.0% -40.0% 24.0% hasn’t closed escrow.
Scotts Valley $ 254,900 $ 272,467 3 8 8 80 98.6% -39.3% -33.4% 0.0% 33.3% 60.0%
Santa Cruz $ 270,950 $ 316,150 6 20 55 275 94.6% -24.6% -14.0% -14.3% -9.1% 1.9%
Watsonv ille $ 170,000 $ 179,914 7 20 17 73 97.9% -0.6% 1.3% 40.0% -9.1% 88.9%
Inven
Number of properties actively for
sale as of the last day of the month.

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THE REAL ESTATE REPORT
Santa Cruz County

Susan Strouse, B.S., M.A.
American Dream Realty
5522 Scotts Valley Dr.
Scotts Valley, CA 95066
(831) 338-6481
Susan@StrouseRealtyGroup.com
http://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com

Go online to see the full report
with the city by city breakdown:

http://www.StrouseRealtyGroup.com

Santa Cruz County Foreclosures
Total Inventories
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
-
10 F M A M J J 10 S O N D 11
Preforeclosure Scheduled for Sale Bank Owned

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