Human societies over the ages have depleted natural resources and degraded their local environments.

Populations have also modified their local climates by cutting down trees or building cities. It is now apparent that human activities are perturbing the climate system at the global scale. Climate change is likely to have wide-ranging and potentially serious health consequences. Some health impacts will result from direct-acting effects (e.g., heatwave-related deaths, weather disasters); others will result from disturbances to complex ecological processes (e.g., changes in patterns of infectious disease, in freshwater supplies, and in food production).

What Is Climate Change?
Global climate change is caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere. The global concentration of these gases is increasing, mainly due to human activities, such as the combustion of fossil fuels (which release carbon dioxide) and deforestation (because forests remove carbon from the atmosphere). The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, has increased by 30 percent since preindustrial times. Projections of future climate change are derived from global climate model or general circulation model (GCM) experiments. Climatologists of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) review the results of these experiments for global and regional assessments. It is estimated that global mean surface temperature will rise by 1.5° to 3.5° C by 2100. This rate of warming is significant. Large changes in precipitation, both increases and decreases, are forecast, largely in the tropics. Climate change is very likely to affect the frequency and intensity of weather events, such as storms and floods, around the world. Climate change will also cause sea level rise due to the thermal expansion of the oceans and the melting of the mountain glaciers. Global mean sea level is anticipated to rise by 15 to 95 centimeters by 2100. Sea level rise will increase vulnerability to coastal flooding and storm surges. The faster the climate change, the greater will be the risk of damage to the environment. Climatic zones (and thus ecosystems and agricultural zones) could shift toward the poles by 150 to 550 kilometers by 2100. Many ecosystems may decline or fragment, and individual species may become extinct. The IPCC Second Assessment report concludes that climate change has probably already begun.

Impacts on Health
To assess the potential impacts of climate change on health, it is necessary to consider both the sensitivity and vulnerability of populations for specific health outcomes to changes in temperature, rainfall, humidity, storminess, and so on. Vulnerability is a function both of the changes to exposure in climate and of the ability to adapt to that exposure. Science classically operates empirically, via observation, interpretation, and replication. However, having initiated a global experiment, it would not be advisable to wait decades for sufficient empirical evidence to describe the health consequences. Risk assessment must therefore be carried out in relation to future environmental scenarios. The traditional "top-down" approach is to answer the question, "If climate changes like scenario X, then what will be the effect on specific health outcomes?" In contrast, "bottom-up" approaches begin with the question, "How much climate change can be tolerated?" It is important to distinguish between "climate and health" relationships and "weather and health" relationships. Climate variability occurs on many time scales. Weather events occur at daily time scale and are associated with many health impacts (e.g., heatwaves and floods). Climate variability at other time scales also affects health. In particular, the El Niño Southern Oscillation has been shown to influence interannual variability in malaria, dengue, and other mosquito-borne diseases. Climate change is the long-term change in the average weather conditions for a particular location. Climate change will become apparent as a change in annual, seasonal, or monthly means. Thus, incremental climate change will be superimposed upon the natural variability of climate in time and space. Natural Disasters. Climate change will increase the risk of both floods and droughts. Ninety percent of disaster victims worldwide live in developing countries, where poverty and population pressures force growing numbers of people to live in harm's way³on flood plains and on unstable hillsides. Unsafe buildings compound the risks. The vulnerability of those living in risk-prone areas is perhaps the single most important cause of disaster casualties and damage. Water Quality and Quantity. Human health depends on an adequate supply of potable water. By reducing fresh water supplies, climate change may affect sanitation and lower the efficiency of local sewer systems, leading to

Climate change may also reduce the water available for drinking and washing. Even displacement due to long-term cumulative environmental deterioration. In developed countries. Stressful hot weather episodes (heat waves) cause deaths in the elderly. and rainfall. the beneficial impact may outweigh the detrimental. such as the United Kingdom. Refugees represent a very vulnerable population with significant health problems. The world's food system may be able to accommodate such regional variations at the global level. according to their location and dependence on the agricultural sector. Infectious Diseases. the ecology and transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases are complex. thereby further influencing disease transmission in areas where the vector is already present. Vector-borne diseases are transmitted by insects (e. Weather conditions influence air pollution via pollutant (or pollutant precursor) transport and/or formation. Climate change may increase yields of cereal grains at high and midlatitudes but may decrease yields at lower latitudes. but particularly in Africa. Climate change may alter the distribution of important vector species. Climate change. Large-scale migration is likely in response to flooding. malaria is reported in the twenty-first century at higher altitudes than in preceding decades. drought. is associated with such health impacts. Climate change impact models suggest that the largest changes in the potential for disease transmission will occur at the fringes³in terms of both latitude and altitude³of the potential malaria risk areas. Current assessments of the impact of climate change indicate that some regions are likely to benefit from increased agricultural productivity while others may suffer reductions. Social Dislocation. In several locations around the world. yellow fever). No sanitation technology is "safe" when covered by flood waters. with production levels. mosquitoes) and ticks that are sensitive to temperature. Heat stress is a direct result of exposure to high temperatures. Adaptation and Mitigation . Air Pollution. and the risk of hunger being relatively unaffected by the additional stress of climate change. Heat waves are responsible for a significant proportion of disease-related mortality in developed counties such as the United States and Australia. including sea level rise. by changing pollen production. Climate change may contribute to the spread of this major disease in the future in highlands and other vulnerable areas. humidity. The growth in the number of refugees and displaced persons has increased markedly. sandflies (leishmaniasis).increased concentrations of pathogens in raw water supplies. prices. The season transmission and distribution of many diseases that are transmitted by mosquitoes (dengue. However. The climate factors that could critically influence transmission need to be identified before the potential impact of a changing climate can be assessed. and other natural disasters. including an increase in the frequency and severity of heat waves. such as on the mountain plateaus in Kenya. The air is full of particles and gases that may affect human health. In vulnerable regions. where the impact of weather disasters has been significantly reduced. which may be associated with the outbreaks of diarrheal diseases. and ticks (Lyme disease. such as pollen.g. may overwhelm the public water supply system. and this may increase the risk of introducing disease into new areas. Milder winters under climate change would reduce the excess morbidity and mortality. as well as heat related illnesses such as heat stroke and heat exhaustion. fungal spores. A change in world climate. The IPCC has reviewed the results of many modeling experiments that project future changes in crop yields under climate change. Malaria is on the increase in the world at large. Temperature can also influence the reproduction and survival of the infective agent within the vector. Food Security. tick-borne encephalitis) may also be increased or decreased by climate change.. as fecal matter mixes with flood waters and is spread wherever the flood waters go. Exposures to air pollutants have serious public health consequences. Flooding is likely to become more frequent with climate change and can affect health through the spread of disease. the concentration of risks with both food and water insecurity can make the impact of even minor weather extremes (floods. The only way to reduce vulnerability is to build the infrastructure to remove solid waste and waste water and supply potable water. populations in isolated areas with poor access to markets may still be vulnerable to locally important decreases or disruptions in food supply. Both the local ecological disturbance caused by the extreme event and the circumstances of population displacement and resettlement would affect the risk of infectious disease outbreaks. Heat Waves and Milder Winters. would affect the quality of life in many urban centers. droughts) severe for the households affected. The reason for such increases has not yet been confirmed but include population movement and the breakdown in control measures. may affect timing and duration of seasonal allergies. and pollutants from fossil fuel emissions. the anticipated increase in extreme rainfall events. However.

SARI KOVATS Read more: Climate change is a long-term change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods of time that range from decades to millions of years. A. agriculture. (1996). trade. Impacts. Harris...g. McMichael. Unless these issues are addressed." Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. K." British Medical Journal 315:805²809. eds..answers. climate change usually refers to changes in modern climate. education. P... eds. The current international legal mechanism for countries to reduce their emissions is the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). R. Zinyowera. Gubler. and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific and Technical Analyses. "The Science of Climate Change. ³ R. and Maskell. G. In recent usage. "Global Climate Change: The Potential Effects on Health. transport.. They are rooted in areas such as sanitation and water supply. (2000). It may be qualified as anthropogenic climate change.answers. J. P. and Reiter." Environmental Health Perspectives 108:367²376. Watson.." Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.. MeiraFilha. Bernard. development and housing.. K. M. S. Climate change may be limited to a specific region. D. and Haines. J. Callander. R.g. Adaptations. A. "The Potential Health Impacts of Climate Variability and Change for the United States: Executive Summary of the Report of the Health Sector of the United States National Assessment. M. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.. Adaption. L. Epstein. J.... (1997). (SEE ALSO: Environmental Determinants of Health..There are two responses to global climate change: y y Mitigation. Responses to the changing climate (e. it can be difficult to make improvements in population health and reduce vulnerability to the health impacts of climate change. A.(1996). A. and Dokken. or may occur across the whole Earth. A. M. Ebi. It may be a change in the average weather conditions or a change in the distribution of weather events with respect to an average. Intervention or policies to reduce the emissions or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases.... T.. N. H. Kattenberg. Grambsch. especially in the context of environmental .com/topic/climate-change#ixzz1HPNa6E3j http://www. D. Read more: http://www.answers."Climate Change 1995. L. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. acclimatization in humans) and policies to minimize the predicted impacts of climate change (e. C. B. greater or fewer extreme weather events. more generally known as global warming or anthropogenic global warming (AGW). Geography of Disease) Bibliography Houghton. R.. A.. The key determinants of health³as well as the solutions³lie primarily outside the direct control of the health sector. building better coastal defenses). A. for example. McGeehin. Patz. Moss. J.

[6] Of most concern in these anthropogenic factors is the increase in CO2 levels due to emissions from fossil fuel combustion. For earlier periods.answers. credible body of evidence. indicators that reflect climate. scientific questions. and there always will be in understanding a complex system like Earth·s climate. sea level change. are also of concern in the roles they play . affecting climate. microclimate. and measures of climate variables. Advancing the Science of Climate Change Consequently. ozone depletion. Reasonably complete global records of surface temperature are available beginning from the mid-late 19th century. and is beginning to help develop a strong understanding of current and potential impacts that will affect people today and in coming decades. including land use. This understanding is crucial because it allows decision makers to place climate change in the context of other large challenges facing the nation and the world.µ ³ United States National Research Council . Other factors. While much remains to be learned.[32] Archaeological evidence.[32] Glaciers . animal agriculture[7] and deforestation. the core phenomenon. and hypotheses have been examined thoroughly and have stood firm in the face of serious scientific debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations. such as vegetation. followed by aerosols (particulate matter in the atmosphere) and cement manufacture. the debate is shifting onto ways to reduce further human impact and to find ways to adapt to change that has already occurred[5] and is anticipated to occur in the future. Climate change effects have been linked to the collapse of various civilisations. The scientific consensus on climate change is. ice cores. based on multiple lines of research.both separately and in conjunction with other factors .n the context of climate Physical evidence for climatic change Evidence for climatic change is taken from a variety of sources that can be used to reconstruct past climates. There are still some uncertainties. oral history and historical documents can offer insights into past changes in the climate. documenting that climate is changing and that these changes are in large part caused by human activities. there is a strong. "that climate is changing and that these changes are in large part caused by human activities. most of the evidence is indirect³climatic changes are inferred from changes in proxies. Historical and archaeological evidence Main article: Historical impacts of climate change Climate change in the recent past may be detected by corresponding changes in settlement and agricultural patterns. Read more: http://www.[31]dendrochronology. anthropogenic factors are human activities which affect the climate. and glacial geology." [4] ´Science has made enormous inroads in understanding climate change and its causes.

and again retreating from the mid 1980s to present. and potassium that may be dated³recording the periods in which a glacier advanced and retreated. quartz. The World Glacier Monitoring Service collects data annually on glacier retreat and glacier mass balance From this data. and englacial and subglacial hydrology can strongly determine the evolution of a glacier in a particular season. including Heinrich events. illustrate how glacial variations may also influence climate without the orbital forcing. precipitation.700 years. responses such as the rise and fall of continental ice sheets and significant sea-level changes helped create the climate. the converse is also true. Similarly. the lack of glacier cover can be identified by the presence of soil or volcanic tephra horizons whose date of deposit may also be ascertained. one must average over a decadal or longer time-scale and/or over a many individual glaciers to smooth out the local short-term variability and obtain a glacier history that is related to climate. by tephrochronological techniques.[35] Shaped by orbital variations. Dansgaard²Oeschger events and the Younger Dryas. This compilation tracks more than 100. As temperatures warm. Other changes. The present interglacial period (the Holocene) has lasted about 11.000 glaciers covering a total area of approximately 240.[33] Their size is determined by a mass balance between snow input and melt output. .000 km2. with strong glacier retreats in the 1940s. glaciers worldwide have been found to be shrinking significantly. and preliminary estimates indicate that the remaining ice cover is around 445.Variations in CO2. Variability in temperature. initially based mainly on aerial photographs and maps but now relying more on satellites. stable or growing conditions during the 1920s and 1970s. Glaciers leave behind moraines that contain a wealth of material³including organic matter.000 km2. however.000 years Decline in thickness of glaciers worldwide Glaciers are considered among the most sensitive indicators of climate change. glaciers retreat unless snow precipitation increases to make up for the additional melt. Therefore. A world glacier inventory has been compiled since the 1970s.[34] The most significant climate processes since the middle to late Pliocene (approximately 3 million years ago) are the glacial and interglacial cycles. Glaciers grow and shrink due both to natural variability and external forcings. temperature and dust from the Vostok ice core over the last 450.

with cosmogenic radionuclides being sometimes used to date terraces that have experienced relative sea level fall. Climate change. ooids in limestones. decreasing snow cover. Extreme weather events have also occurred more frequently since 1980. floods. severe El Niño and La Niña events. and forest fires. drought. melting glaciers and artic warming that also contribute to sea level rise. the regions that have warmed the most (northern Luzon. scientists have dated coral reefs that grow near the surface of the ocean. Largest precipitation trends are about 10 percent during the 20th century. In addition. Further warming and changes in the global climate system during the 21st century could occur if greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions equal to or higher than current levels will persist. Mindanao) have also dried the most. The predominant dating methods used are uranium series and radiocarbon. coastal and marine resources and health. the average global temperature went up by about 0. altimeter measurements ³ in combination with accurately determined satellite orbits ³ have provided an improved measurement of global sea level change.74°C. Among these are increased precipitation that could cause flooding in certain parts of the world while more intense and longer droughts are experienced in other areas. and nearshore archaeological remains.answers. landslides.answers.Hot days and hot nights have become more frequent. New Risks and Pressures . marine terraces. if left unchecked. In addition. rising sea level. will also affect biodiversity and ultimately the earth's natural systems and processes.[42] To measure sea levels prior to instrumental measurements. Adversely affected sectors include agriculture. It has been observed that warming is experienced most in the northern and southern regions of the Climate change in the philippines Global Trend y y During the 20th century. average rate of warming over the last 50 years is nearly twice that for the last 100 years.Read more: http://www. These include deadly and damaging Sea level change Main articles: Sea level and Current sea level rise Global sea level change for much of the last century has generally been estimated using tide gauge measurements collated over long periods of time to give a long-term average. More recently. coastal sediments. Read more: http://www. he Philippines has experienced temperature spikes brought about by climate change. while Metro Manila has warmed less than most parts. with the warming affecting land more than ocean areas. fresh water.

The decline in production and productivity will possibly threaten the country's food security.y y y y Agriculture is the sector most affected by tropical cyclones. settlements. 1988. These extreme weather events have one thing in common . which resulted in water rationing in Metro Manila. During the 1970s. Annual inflow in Angat dam was most deficient during the El Niño episodes in 1983-84 and 1997-98. Hence. Massive coral bleaching in various reefs throughout the Philippines occurred during the severe 1997-98 El Niño episode. the poor and the disadvantaged are the most vulnerable to the negative consequences of climate change. The challenge is for government to consolidate these efforts and move in one direction so that the country .05%. atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is expected to rise from today's 367ppm to 490ppm-1. y Among the extreme weather events that have happened recently are those which caused massive landslides in Guinsaugon. the highest). another El Niño period. and economic development. The nation urgently needs to respond to the vulnerabilities posed by climate change. Without emission-control policies. frequent occurrence of extreme events has affected rainfall and inflow patterns of the reservoirs. Southern Leyte and Legaspi. and 1990 (at 1. Challenges and Constraints While the contribution of the Philippines to GHG emissions remains insignificant. In all these extreme events. As part of the global community. the Philippines has to intervene to minimize these risks and to prepare adaptive measures that would anticipate social and economic consequences which cannot be mitigated. There is also evidence correlating El Niño occurrences with the epidemics on dengue.17%. Likewise. followed in 1988 by 4.persistent torrential rains. Likewise.21% in 1990. water supply. La Niña-type episodes dominated resulting to a relatively moist decade. A business-as-usual option is no longer acceptable since the effects of climate change point to far-reaching consequences to the nation's food security.260ppm by the year 2100. more cold. various agencies have climate change mitigation and adaptation programs. Climate change affects all sectors. Past and current emissions have already committed the earth to some degree of climate change in the 21st century. causing landslides and flash floods. there is no denying that the climate change issue affects all facets of the country's development. The worst incidence of red tide in Manila Bay occurred in 1992. The highest ratio of tropical cyclone damage to agricultural output was 4. Fish kills and high mortality of cultured giant clams and severe red tide outbreaks were also observed after strong El Niño periods. Albay. the Philippines must do its part in helping mitigate carbon emissions. human health. Typhoon damage rose to more than 1% of GDP in 1984. killing people and destroying property along its path.

(e.will have a coherent and integrated policy and action framework to mitigate. Focus on disaster-prone settlements. Climate Change Response Framework The Mitigation Imperative We have to do our share as part of global community through. high-risk population centers. and food production areas Financing Interventions Search for financing mechanisms in support of local and sectoral initiatives.) y y y y y y Climate-friendly energy supply mix Policy incentives for renewable energy Diverse interventions in: Energy Generation Energy Efficiency Transport/consumer behavior Adaptation Response Guidelines y y Address vulnerabilities of specific sectors and areas.g. climate change. . and adapt to.

Adaptation: introduce new methods of technologies Task Force to facilitate transfer of technology through bilateral. industry. wind and other clean technologies Innovative lending schemes Technology Solutions y y y Mitigation: climate-friendly technologies for low-carbon infrastructure for energy. multilateral and regional agreements. transportation and settlements.y y y ODA funds Market-based incentives Subsidies targeted at lowering costs for power generation using solar. Social Mobilization Various stakeholders such as: y y y y y y y Home and Office Builders Local Government Officials Car Manufacturers Mall Owners Appliance Makers Academe Others . agriculture.

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