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December 13, 2010

Keep your cool


Indian market % change
The world belongs to the enthusiast who Last close 1 day 3 mth YTD
keeps cool.-William McFee. Sensex 19,509 1.4 1.6 11.7
Nifty 5,857 0.0 1.7 12.6
The heat was on the bulls last week till the robust BSE 100 2,424 1.6 (1.2) 11.2
IIP numbers came to the rescue. Since then BSE 200 7,605 1.6 (2.1) 11.2

worries seem to have cooled down. In fact, the CNX Midcap 8,512 0.0 (7.3) 14.5
BSE Smallcap 8,951 2.4 (12.9) 7.1
otherwise warm cities like Mumbai are beginning Developed market % change
to feel the chill. Last close 1 day 3 mth YTD
Dow Jones 11,410 0.4 8.2 9.4
The start today to a truncated trading week is Nasdaq 2,638 0.8 15.4 16.2
likely to be a positive one. Most Asian markets S&P 500 1,240 0.6 10.6 11.2
are trading up. Even the Chinese market has FTSE 5,813 0.1 4.4 7.4
brushed aside concerns about a possible rate hike CAC 3,857 (0.0) 2.4 (2.0)

after inflation surged to a two-year high. DAX 7,006 0.6 11.9 17.6
Hang Seng* 23,395 1.0 8.0 7.0

And talking of interest rates, the market will Nikkei* 10,227 0.1 9.7 (3.0)
S&P/ASX200* 4,773 0.6 3.4 (2.0)
closely follow the policy meetings of the RBI (on * Markets are open
Dec 16) and the US Federal Reserve (late Emerging market % change
tomorrow). Also, the latest monthly inflation Last close 1 day 3 mth YTD
figures (Dec 14) will be closely tracked. Shanghai Comp 2,876 1.2 7.0 (12.2)
Brazil Bovespa 68,342 0.7 0.5 (0.4)
While the market could well rebound after last Mexico Bolsa 37,678 0.3 14.4 17.3
week’s carnage, one should remain on guard, as Kospi* 1,987 0.0 9.2 18.1

FIIs have been net sellers in the past few Micex 1,656 (0.3) 14.9 20.9
Taiwan* 8,758 0.5 8.2 7.0
sessions. Stick to Large Caps and “quality” mid- Straits* 3,187 0.0 3.9 10.0
caps and avoid “dodgy” counters even if prices * Markets are open
seem attractive. Complacency is the last thing Institutional activity
one needs in an uncertain market. Wait for the (Rs cr) Cash F&O MTD YTD
market to stabilise and stay up for a few sessions FIIs (1,197) (289) 1,513 130,189

before taking a decisive call. MFs 150 - (278) (28,556)


FIIs Prov. (1,239)
MFs Prov. 748
Commodities % change
Sensex intra-day Last close 1 day 3 mth YTD
19,600 Crude (US$/bbl) 88.1 0.3 14.1 11.0
Gold (US$/oz) 1,386 (0.0) 11.2 26.3
Copper (US$/mt) 9,033 0.5 20.9 23.0
19,400
Aluminium (US$/mt) 2,292 (1.4) 10.6 4.3
Zinc (US$/mt) 2,274 (0.9) 9.2 (10.1)
19,200 Advance/Decline stocks
(Nos) A B S Total
Adv 168 1,266 304 1,898
19,000
Dec 36 593 117 999
Unch 0 77 20 130
18,800 A/D ratio (x)* 4.7 2.1 2.6 1.9
9:00 10:05 11:10 12:15 13:20 14:25 15:30 *A/D excluding Unch
Trade value
(Rs cr) % chg
ADR/GDR
Cash NSE 17,188 (0.8)
Latest (US$) Price % chg % Prem/Disc
Cash BSE 4,084 (3.6)
Dr. Reddys 40.5 (0.4) 0.9
Total Cash 21,272 (1.4)
HDFC Bk 167.1 3.9 12.9
Delivery (%) 41.8 -
ICICI Bk 49.0 5.5 (1.2)
Derivatives 124,903 (12.9)
ITC 3.8 2.1 0.0
Currency % change
Infosys 69.8 0.4 (0.0)
Last close 1 day 3 mth YTD
Ranbaxy 12.3 0.1 0.1
Rs/US$ 45.06 (0.4) 3.2 3.3
Reliance 45.1 2.9 (0.9)
Rs/EUR 59.52 (0.4) 0.3 11.9
Wipro 14.6 0.4 46.3
US$/GBP 1.58 (0.1) 2.4 (2.3)
SBI 120.9 1.3 (0.3)
US$/EUR 1.32 (0.3) 2.3 (7.9)
Tata Motors 28.4 1.9 2.6
Yen/US$ 83.97 0.0 (0.3) 10.8
Sterlite 14.8 1.6 304.7
Bond market
L&T 43.1 (0.6) (0.1)
Last Close (%) Bps chg
10yr Gsec 8.12 (0.02)
Call rate 6.53 (0.02)

Market Mantra
News

Corporate snippets  Punj Lloyd wins two repeat orders worth a


Rs14.6bn from existing clients. (ET)
 Cipla and Ranbaxy are among those pulled  Spicejet places order worth US$446.6mn
up by the drug price regulator, National with Bombardier for 15 turboprop aircraft.
Pharmaceuticals Pricing Authority for (ET)
overcharging. (BS)
 Vasan Eye Care has outsourced its IT
 NTPC to soon approach the government for operations to Wipro Infotech for a period of
reconsideration of the decision to scrap the five years. (BL)
power producer's 600MW Loharinag Pala
hydro-power project in Uttarakhand. (BS)  Goa Carbon enters into a joint venture
agreement with Hong Kong-based, Sinoway
 Hindalco’s US subsidiary, Novelis plans to International Holdings Ltd. (BL)
refinance its debt by raising US$4bn. (BS)
 Karnataka Bank hikes the rate of interest on
 Nuclear Power Corporation is in talks with different maturities of term deposits by 25 to
Coal India on plans to enter the atomic 75 basis points with effect from December 13.
power sector through a joint venture. (BS) (BL)
 HDFC Bank hikes deposit and lending rates  Andhra Bank announces the increase of the
by up to 75 basis points. (ET) base rate by 50 basis points. (BL)
 Bank of Baroda hikes deposit rates by 25-75  NTPC is likely to achieve 13,020MW capacity
basis points across various maturities. (BL) addition during the 11th Plan. (BS)
 Reliance Infrastructure to have eight toll  Political parties and the green lobby step up
roads by March that will generate revenues of opposition to the 1,350MW thermal power
Rs10bn in fiscal 2012. (BL) project by Indiabulls in Amravati district.
 ITC to resume cigarette manufacturing only (BS)
after receiving a `formal notification' from the  Hindustan Copper plans to develop a new
Government on the pictorial warnings that mine with about 50mn tons of ore reserves in
need to be used on such products. (BL) Jharkhand. (BS)
 ONGC expects to ship the first 363 MW  Ramsarup Industries in talks with two PE
turbine built by General Electric for the firms to raise Rs7bn of fresh capital to
proposed 726 MW (2x363 MW) gas-based restructure the company. (ET)
ONGC Tripura Power Company by February.
(BL)  Telecom regulator Trai recommended the
government to cancel 38 telecom licences,
 BHEL is close to wrapping up a JV agreement including some held by Telenor, Sistema and
with Japan's Toshiba Corporation for Etisalat’s Indian ventures. (ET)
manufacturing high-end transmission and
distribution equipment. (BL)  Kalpataru Power wins three orders
aggregating Rs6bn. (ET)
 Bharti Airtel launches IMEWE cable system.
(BL)  Karuturi Global is in talks with a group of
banks to raise a debt of around Rs8bn in the
 Mahindra Reva plans to sell 1,200 cars in next one month. (BS)
the country by the end of the current fiscal.
(BL)
Economy snippets
 United Spirits aims to double volumes of the
‘Whyte & Mackay Special' variant in 5-6
 India’s foreign exchange reserves rose to
years. (BL)
US$296.39bn as on November 26 from
 Nissan Motor India and Ashok Leyland plans US$293.9bn in the previous week. (ET)
to exploit the mass people-mover segment
 DTH operators are set to charge a 25-30%
dominated by Toyota, with two new vehicles
premium over cable rates from advertisers
scheduled for launch next year. (BS)
starting early next year. (FE)
 NMDC inks pact with Russian steel and
 Industrial output has registered a 10.8 per
mining major Severstal to set up a 5mn ton
cent year-on-year rise in October. (BL)
per annum steel plant in Karnataka. (ET)

Market Mantra
Technicals

Nifty price/volume Jindal Steel and Power (BUY, above Rs704,


NSE Nifty [N59901] 5761.00, 5865.50, 5721.15, 5857.35, 823063808 1.58%
Price Log IRIS
Target Rs734): Jindal steel and power
6400 extended gains for second straight week and
closed above the critical resistance mark of
6200
Rs695 which turned out to be a major hurdle.
6000 With RSI trading above the positive crossover
23 24
accompanied by fresh buy signal in MACD,
5800
momentum in the counter exhibit strength and
5600
move above Rs704 could accentuate buying
action in the counter. A falling resistance line
Source : www.SpiderSoftwareIndia.Com 5400 drawn from the peak of Rs755 has also been
Vol Cr
violated on closing basis which has voided the
100 short term down trend in the counter. We
advise buying stock above Rs704 with stop
50.00
loss of Rs690 for target of Rs734.
10:A S O N D Dly
Wipro (BUY between Rs443-447, Target
Rs470): Wipro Ltd on the daily chart has
Nifty posted smart recovery on Friday trading
signaled a breakout from inverted head and
session to signal reversal on daily candlestick,
shoulder pattern on Friday trading session with
with formation of ‘piercing line’ pattern and
neckline persisting at Rs442 and spurt in
closed above 5,850 levels. As levels of 5,700 was
volumes. With MACD about to cross above the
tested for the second occasion after Nov 2010, it
reference line and RSI rallying with ease, the
can be also construed to a ‘double bottom
momentum in the counter remains extremely
pattern’ and a move past 6,000 levels on closing
strong. However it has been observed in the past
basis in coming weeks, should set a stage for
that after a breakout, an attempt is retest the
Nifty to test its all time high of 6,357. We expect
neckline, which in this case stands at R443.
Nifty to trade with positive bias as long it
Expansion in volumes at the time of price
sustains above 5,800 levels.
increase corroborate uptrend in the counter. We
advise buying stock in the range of Rs443-
Support/Resistance levels
447 with stop loss of Rs437 for target of
Close Support Resistance
Nifty 5,857 5,825 5,895 Rs467.
Sensex 19,509 19,390 20,680

Abnormal change in delivery


Stock NSEDely (%) Prev NSEDely (%) Price % chg
Allcargo 57.8 21.9 2.3
Hdil 29.9 13.9 (0.5)
Relcapital 39.6 18.9 0.9
Jetairways 18.3 9.3 0.4
Bankbaroda 50.3 32.6 (0.0)

Positive breakout Negative breakout


10 Days Price % 20 Days 10 Days Price % 20 Days
Company name CMP MVG avg chg MVG avg Company name CMP MVG avg chg MVG avg
Coromandel Inter 580.3 563.5 3.0 589.1 Aurobindo Pharma 1,219.7 1,262.0 (3.4) 1,251.0
Ntpc Ltd 192.2 186.6 3.0 185.2 Panacea Biotec 185.7 193.4 (4.0) 194.7
Hcl Tech Ltd 431.3 419.2 2.9 405.8 Monnet Ispat & E 518.9 540.4 (4.0) 569.7
Areva T&D India 319.9 311.0 2.8 302.2 Nesco Ltd 532.4 554.5 (4.0) 562.6
Nestle India Ltd 3,780.3 3,676.5 2.8 3,711.9 Utv Software Com 514.7 537.0 (4.2) 546.9

Stocks in uptrend Stocks in downtrend


Company Vol % chg Delivery % Price % chg Company Vol % chg Delivery % Price % chg
Esabindia 131.2 81.4 2.0 Ksbpumps (21.5) 96.5 (0.7)
Munjalshow (21.8) 75.7 1.9 Monsanto 48.1 86.6 (1.1)
Suntv 387.5 81.5 2.2 Infotecent (25.4) 86.2 (2.4)
Abirlanuvo (31.4) 67.1 2.1 Infotecent (25.4) 86.2 (2.4)
Mahlife (71.2) 64.8 2.2 Bajajfinsv 134.7 79.2 (0.1)

Market Mantra
Technicals…

Pivot table Top movers


CMP Company Price (Rs) Price % chg % YTD chg
Company (Rs) Supp 1 Supp 2 Pivot Res 1 Res 2
Ks Oils Ltd 37.2 21.4 (43.1)
ABB 763 752 740 763 775 786
Ds Kulkarni Dev 62.3 15.7 (13.4)
ACC 1,075 1,010 971 1,049 1,114 1,180
Ambuja Bayer Cropscienc 887.6 11.8 64.1
Cem 142 134 130 139 146 154 Geodesic Info Sy 92.8 10.5 (29.7)
BHEL 2,288 2,196 2,146 2,247 2,338 2,430 Ruchi Soya Indus 91.0 9.6 (2.0)
BPCL 681 671 663 678 688 698
Bharti 331 325 318 331 338 344 Top losers
Cairn 330 322 317 327 335 343 Company Price (Rs) Price % chg % YTD chg
Cipla 347 334 318 350 364 377 Cranes Software 5.4 (4.4) (81.0)
DLF 282 276 270 282 288 294 Spicejet Ltd 72.9 (4.2) 28.4
Gail 493 486 478 494 501 508 Amtek India Ltd 58.0 (3.9) 16.4
Grasim 2,319 2,293 2,275 2,312 2,337 2,363 Unity Infraproje 88.1 (3.0) (18.8)
HCL Tech 432 422 414 430 440 450 Ratnamani Metals 121.0 (2.8) 14.0
HDFC Bank 2,222 2,184 2,160 2,208 2,246 2,284
Hero Honda 1,785 1,745 1,720 1,770 1,810 1,851 Volume Toppers
Hindalco 215 209 205 213 219 225 Company Price (Rs) Price % chg Vol % chg
HUL 296 290 287 294 300 305 Procter & Gamble 1,767.5 0.3 2,588.7
HDFC 669 661 655 667 675 682 Birla Corp Ltd 343.1 6.1 2,122.2
ICICI Bank 1,117 1,064 1,033 1,094 1,148 1,201 Info Edge 602.0 1.4 1,123.0
Idea 70 67 66 69 71 74 Panacea Biotec 188.4 5.7 904.5
Infosys 3,144 3,121 3,100 3,141 3,165 3,188 Acc Ltd 1,075.2 8.6 606.3
ITC 170 168 166 169 172 174
L&T 1,944 1,915 1,882 1,949 1,977 2,006
Sector watch
M&M 781 759 746 772 794 816
Price % chg
Maruti 1,413 1,380 1,360 1,399 1,433 1,466 50
Nalco 359 348 340 355 367 378 BSE Indices Last close 1 day 1 week 1 mth DMA
NTPC 192 188 184 191 196 201 BSE Bankex 13,003 2.8 (8.2) (3.4) 13,333
ONGC 1,322 1,315 1,308 1,322 1,329 1,336 BSE Realty 2,742 1.4 (21.6) (24.7) 3,533
Powergrid 96 95 94 96 97 98 BSE HC 6,499 0.8 (1.3) 13.3 6,093
PNB 1,199 1,168 1,145 1,192 1,223 1,254 BSE Metals 15,991 1.6 (6.0) (2.4) 16,355
Ranbaxy 554 535 518 552 571 590 BSE Oil & Gas 10,426 2.5 (2.9) (0.1) 10,485
Rcom 126 121 117 125 130 135 BSE Auto 9,922 0.3 (2.0) 8.4 9,458
Reliance 1,024 992 973 1,011 1,043 1,075 BSE IT 6,262 0.4 3.6 9.4 5,866
Reliance BSE Power 2,875 1.2 (7.8) (9.1) 3,125
Infra 780 754 730 778 804 831
BSE FMCG 3,560 1.4 (2.7) 2.2 3,520
Reiance
Power 152 149 147 151 154 157 BSE PSU 9,223 1.4 (8.0) (9.7) 9,953
Satyam 60 59 58 60 61 62 BSE Cap Goods 15,054 0.6 (6.2) (1.1) 15,477
Siemens 764 750 730 769 784 798 BSE CD 5,948 3.2 (14.7) (0.1) 6,166
SBI 2,732 2,677 2,643 2,711 2,766 2,822 BSE 200 2,424 1.6 (5.4) (1.2) 2,463
SAIL 177 173 171 175 179 182 BSE 500 7,605 1.6 (6.2) (2.1) 7,781
Sterlite 165 161 159 164 167 170 BSE Mid Cap 7,406 2.0 (12.2) (8.7) 8,002
Sunpharma 449 438 427 448 460 471 BSE Small Cap 8,951 2.4 (18.0) (12.9) 10,136
Suzlon 48 47 45 48 50 52 CNX 500 4,713 0.0 (6.0) (2.1) 4,820
Tata Com. 248 239 232 245 255 264
TCS 1,075 1,060 1,048 1,072 1,087 1,102
Tata Motors 1,248 1,217 1,192 1,243 1,273 1,304
Tata Power 1,282 1,271 1,263 1,279 1,290 1,301
Tata Steel 619 602 592 611 629 646
Unitech 63 61 59 62 65 67
Wipro 451 438 430 446 459 472
Zee 145 141 139 144 147 151 Note:
Ideas given under the ‘Technicals’ section are for intraday purpose or
A pivot is a level at which the market direction changes for the day.
up to a period of three trading sessions. Stocks recommended under
These points can be critical support and resistance levels for that day.
this heading are not necessarily part of our fundamental buy or sell
Pivot levels are only broad indicators and not necessarily our view on
list.
the stock or index.

Market Mantra
Deals

Bulk deals
Date Scrip name Client name B/S Qty ('000) Avg price (Rs) Deal size (Rs m)
10/12/2010 ACC Ambuja Cement India Private B 2,214 1075 2,378.6
10/12/2010 ABG Shipyard Limited Abg International Pvt.Ltd B 255 360 91.9
10/12/2010 Gitanjali Gems Limited Credit Suisse First Boston B 495 182 89.9
10/12/2010 Hanung Toys and Textiles Credit Suisse First Boston B 159 199 31.7

Insider trades
Transaction Qty Avg price Deal size Shares Holding after
B/S
Company name Acquirer/Seller date ('000) (Rs) ('000) transactions (%) transaction (%)
Chambal Fertilisers H S Bawa 18/11/2010 B 20.0 91 1.8 - 0.1
Eicher Motors Ltd Krishnan P Nair 9/11/2010 B 3.6 1,384 5.0 - -
Eicher Motors Ltd R Anbuselvaw - B 420.3 1,384 581.6 - -
Eicher Motors Ltd Vinod Kumar Aggarwal 9/11/2010 B 10.0 1,384 13.8 - -
*Closing price on the transaction day is assumed to be average price of the deal

Market Mantra
Derivatives

Nifty volatility Index fell to 21.63 from Nifty snapshot


22.60, decreased by 4.29%. Current Previous % Chg
Near month price 5,880 5,780 1.7
 Total Nifty futures shed 1.76mn shares in Near month Pre/Disc 22.3 13.4 66.0
open interest. Mid month price 5,903 5,805 1.7
 Call open interest for Dec series shed 4.63mn Mid month Pre/Disc 46.1 38.2 20.7
shares in Open Interest. OI* (‘000) 26,343 28,111 (6.3)

 Put open interest for Dec series shed 0.05mn


Volume (‘000) 27,932 30,026 (7.0)
PCR (OI) 1.1 1.0 8.0
shares in Open Interest. PCR (Vol) 0.9 1.0 (4.6)
 Nifty put call ratio of open interest now Roll-over (%) 5.1 4.5 13.4
stands at 1.13 vs 1.05.
FII derivative data
 Nifty put call ratio of volume now stands at
0.92 vs 0.96. (Rs cr) Buy Sell Net contracts % Chg OI
Index Futures 2,649 1,837 812 (13,494) (2)
 Maximum open interest in calls for Dec series
Index Option 8,234 9,240 (1,007) (13,107) (1)
is at 6,000 strike price.
Stock Futures 1,613 1,703 (91) 2 0
 Maximum open interest in Puts for Dec series Stock Options 492 496 (4) 1,147 5
is at 5,700 strike prices.
 Nifty Dec 6,000 Call shed 2.08mn shares in Institutional activity
open interest. (Rs cr) Cash F&O MTD YTD

 Nifty Dec 6,000 Put shed 1.11mn shares in FII's (1,197.1) (289) 1,513 130,189

open interest. MF's 149.6 - (278) (28,556)


FIIs Prov. (1,239.3)

Strategies MFs Prov. 747.7

 Long DLF Bank Dec Future in range of Overall market


Rs281-283 for the target price of Rs291 with 10-Dec- 9-Dec- Value %
a stop loss placed at Rs276. Overall Market 10 10 8-Dec-10 chg

Lot size: 1000 Index Future (Rs cr) 19,305 21,223 17,122 (9.0)
Stock Future (Rs cr) 19,171 20,441 16,345 (6.2)
Remarks: Net maximum profit of Rs10,000
Index Options (Rs cr) 82,539 97,109 69,664 (15.0)
and net maximum loss of Rs5,000.
Stock Options (Rs cr) 3,887 4,609 3,658 (15.7)
Index Future (Cont '000) 698 768 612 (9.1)
 Long Federal Bank Dec Future in range of
Stock Future (Cont '000) 703 751 583 (6.3)
Rs407-409 for the target price of Rs419 and
Index Options (Cont '000) 2,792 3,265 2,187 (14.5)
stop loss placed at Rs401.
Stock Options (Cont '000) 134 156 206 (14.3)
Lot size: 1000
PCR (OI) 0.9 1.0 1.1 (3.8)
Remarks: Net maximum profit of Rs12,000
PCR (VOI) 0.4 0.4 0.4 (4.6)
and net maximum loss of Rs6,000

Nifty open interest chart Nifty strikes open interest


900 OI & Vol Nifty 6,400 10,000 OI in ('000) Call Put
(lacs) 6,300 9,000
750 6,200 8,000
6,100 7,000
600
6,000 6,000
450 5,900 5,000
5,800 4,000
300 5,700 3,000
5,600 2,000
150
5,500 1,000
0 5,400 0
16-Sep-10 13-Oct-10 9-Nov-10 7-Dec-10 5600 5700 5800 5900 6000 6100 6200

Sector-wise OI
4 % Chg
0
-4
-8
Textile
Power

Sugar
Metals
FMCG

Real Estate
IT

Logistics

Others

Total Stock
Cement
goods &

Pharma
Automobiles

Telecom
Media
Capital

Fertilizers
Banking

Oil & Gas


Infra

Future

Market Mantra
Derivatives…

Futures open interest gainers


Scrip OI ('000) % change CMP (Rs) % change Volume ('000) % change Prem/Disc (Rs)
Federalbnk 1,166.0 18.6 410.7 1.3 1,657.0 88.5 (3.6)
Gail 3,670.5 15.6 494.6 (0.6) 2,355.0 2.1 (2.0)
Acc 2,205.0 13.1 1,068.0 8.0 1,932.8 120.3 7.3
Recltd 4,074.0 12.0 306.8 2.7 2,906.0 41.2 (2.6)
Bhusanstl 1,434.4 10.9 417.8 (1.5) 1,106.9 36.5 (3.5)
Kingfisher 14,232.0 10.7 62.9 9.2 8,420.0 105.2 (0.4)
Rolta 3,234.0 10.0 149.9 (1.1) 1,404.0 (32.0) (1.3)
Dlf 15,204.0 9.7 284.5 (0.1) 11,894.0 13.0 (2.4)
Wipro 3,845.1 9.5 451.1 3.3 2,876.3 61.7 (0.1)
Jswsteel 2,970.8 9.3 1,049.4 (2.0) 1,744.0 (4.4) (8.8)
Sbin 5,397.3 7.3 2,754.2 1.8 6,190.3 13.6 (21.7)

Futures open interest losers


Scrip OI ('000) % change CMP (Rs) % change Volume ('000) % change Prem/Disc (Rs)
Jindalsaw 3,047.0 (22.3) 182.7 1.4 1,665.0 (9.9) 1.3
Indiainfo 10,126.0 (6.9) 83.5 8.9 2,750.0 (15.2) (0.2)
Jindalsaw 3,047.0 (22.3) 182.7 1.4 1,665.0 (9.9) 1.3
Ksoils 22,528.0 (18.8) 37.0 19.9 40,760.0 (22.1) 0.1
Axisbank 2,274.5 (14.1) 1,327.2 6.0 3,006.5 (24.7) (3.7)
Icicibank 9,569.5 (8.7) 1,120.7 5.2 8,566.8 3.3 (3.6)
Pfc 603.0 (8.5) 305.7 2.5 387.0 (8.5) (0.8)
Voltas 911.0 (8.3) 232.9 1.6 691.0 (33.1) (1.4)
Suntv 113.0 (7.4) 527.1 2.1 77.5 9.9 1.4
Renuka 48,540.0 (7.3) 82.4 7.6 21,534.0 13.3 (0.1)
Grasim 392.0 (7.0) 2,324.0 (0.5) 76.6 18.6 (4.8)

Most active stock calls Most active stock puts


% Volume % Volume
Scrip Strike OI ('000) change CMP(Rs) ('000) Scrip Strike OI ('000) change CMP(Rs) ('000)
Sbin 2800 177.9 34.1 85.9 3,228.0 Tatamotors 1200 317.8 (3.9) 23.0 2,383.0
Tatasteel 620 876.0 14.7 18.7 3,188.0 Reliance 1000 296.0 28.1 14.9 2,188.0
Tatamotors 1300 506.3 17.5 24.5 2,778.0 Tatamotors 1250 270.8 (18.9) 42.0 1,541.0
Reliance 1020 566.8 (10.7) 26.0 3,471.0 Tatasteel 600 530.5 10.5 12.4 1,319.0
Sbin 3000 477.8 4.7 31.0 1,999.0 Sbin 2700 70.5 1.1 77.9 1,144.0
Reliance 1000 646.0 0.6 38.0 2,840.0 Icicibank 1100 265.5 22.8 28.6 1,246.0
Sbin 2900 263.0 2.0 51.0 1,989.0 Icicibank 1050 171.5 80.5 15.9 1,105.0
Idbi 160 1,824.0 8.2 4.7 2,001.0 Sbin 2600 46.9 23.4 44.9 833.0
Ifci 65 8,212.0 2.0 0.8 2,441.0 Reliance 980 303.5 6.8 9.7 1,056.0
Tatasteel 640 1,226.0 2.3 10.8 1,778.0 Idbi 150 944.0 (0.8) 4.2 776.0

Most active Nifty calls Most active Nifty puts


Strike OI ('000) % change CMP(Rs) Volume('000) Strike OI ('000) % change CMP(Rs) Volume('000)
5900 4,642.6 (25.2) 90.3 20,114.3 5800 6940.6 13.4 74.0 17847.6
6000 7,664.8 (21.4) 51.0 16,984.7 5700 7740.4 10.4 47.2 15662.6
5800 4,205.8 0.3 144.9 11,432.1 5600 7127.7 3.9 31.0 8843.5
6100 5,942.9 (6.0) 27.1 9,407.5 5900 3749.3 (10.4) 116.3 5707.9
6200 5,483.0 (8.8) 13.8 5,009.9 5500 4221.4 2.1 21.0 5019.0
6300 4,165.8 (4.3) 8.2 2,261.2 6000 3512.7 (24.0) 175.9 3096.3
5700 1,753.6 11.1 218.8 1,622.8 5400 3102.9 5.4 14.8 2361.8
6000 1,100.0 2.1 117.0 889.6 5300 3047.7 (1.9) 10.0 1101.4
6300 1,322.1 (1.0) 32.1 667.2 6100 1030.9 (34.8) 250.0 807.3
6400 2,711.8 (0.4) 4.9 609.4 5600 1999.8 10.0 77.5 816.5

Note:
Ideas given under the ‘Derivatives’ section are positional trades for the stated F&O expiry. Stocks recommended under this heading are not
necessarily part of our fundamental buy or sell list.

Market Mantra
Mutual Funds

Fund focus
IDFC Small & Midcap Fund Invest
Fund manager Kenneth Andrade Min investment Rs5,000
Latest NAV Rs18.8 Entry load Nil
NAV 52 high/low Rs21/14 Exit load 1% <1 yr
Latest AUM Rs1,012cr Benchmark CNX Midcap
Class Equity – diversified Asset allocation Equity (89%), Debt (5%), Cash (6%)
Options Growth & dividend Expense ratio 2.12%

Top recommended funds (Absolute returns (in %) are based on previous close)
Assets NAV
Equity – Diversified (Rs Cr) (Rs) 1wk 1mth 3mth 6mth 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr
HDFC Top 200 (G) 9,425 215.7 (4.6) (8.6) (0.9) 15.4 20.5 139.0 31.2 178.0
IDFC Small & Midcap Equity –(G) 1,012 18.1 (6.6) (14.1) (7.8) 8.3 20.1 160.1 -- --
Reliance Equity Opportunities – (G) 2,694 35.9 (4.6) (9.8) (6.3) 13.9 26.0 171.9 17.7 157.2

Equity – Thematic
Reliance Pharma Fund (G) 504 54.6 (3.5) (6.1) 3.6 7.1 28.0 197.2 98.9 219.9
ICICI Pru Tech Fund (G) 114 18.8 (1.2) 1.9 10.3 29.3 42.1 200.6 23.1 88.4
Franklin FMCG Fund (G) 49 65.7 (3.4) (7.9) (3.1) 14.1 29.2 120.1 60.7 123.9

Equity – Tax saving


DSP-BR Tax Saver Fund (G) 956 17.5 (5.2) (10.4) (4.7) 9.9 17.6 123.8 3.4 --
HDFC Tax Saver (G) 2,892 239.5 (3.9) (7.9) (2.2) 14.0 23.0 153.6 18.6 120.5
ICICI Prudential Tax Plan (G) 1,337 142.5 (3.4) (8.1) (2.2) 12.1 20.2 164.0 19.8 97.1

Hybrid
HDFC Prudence Fund (G) 5,738 211.8 (4.2) (7.6) (2.6) 11.1 23.1 135.2 34.7 152.7
HDFC MIP – LTP (G) 10,000 22.6 (1.4) (2.3) 1.3 5.2 9.6 48.2 32.9 75.3
Reliance RSF - Balanced (G) 725 22.7 (4.1) (9.1) (4.5) 10.2 18.9 118.9 38.6 124.2

Debt – Money market


HDFC Cash Mgmt Fund – SP (G) 2,022 20.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.0 5.2 11.3 21.3 39.7
SBI Magnum Insta Cash (G) 2,824 21.3 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.0 5.2 10.5 20.3 37.6
Reliance Money Manager (G) 2,427 1,291.9 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.8 5.1 11.5 21.6 --

Debt – Floating rate


Reliance Floating Rate Fund (G) 3,530 15.1 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.9 5.3 11.8 21.9 40.9
Kotak Floater LTP (G) 4,412 15.2 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.0 5.5 12.1 22.5 41.6
Tata Floater Fund (G) 5,199 14.3 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.1 5.6 11.9 22.4 40.9

NFO Update
#
Fund name Open date Close date Type Class
Reliance Fixed Horizon Fund XVI Series 6 10-Dec 14-Dec CE Debt - FMP
IDFC FMP Series 61 13-Dec 14-Dec CE Debt - FMP
ICICI Pru FMP Series 53 - 1 Year Plan D 09-Dec 16-Dec CE Debt - FMP
Kotak QIP Series 2 20-Dec 20-Dec CE Debt – Interval
Reliance Interval Fund - Monthly - II 29-Dec 29-Dec CE Debt – Interval
#OE: Open Ended, CE: Close Ended

Recent actions
 Kotak Quarterly Interval Plan Series 1 declares dividend. The record date is December 15, 2010.

 ICICI Prudential Quarterly Interval Plan II declares 1.522% and 1.642% dividend under Retail and
Institutional. The record date is December 15, 2010.

 DSP BlackRock FMP - 3M - Series 20 declares dividend. The record date is December 14, 2010.

 Canara Robeco Interval Series 2 – QIP 2 declares dividend. The record date is December 13, 2010.

 SBI Debt Fund Series - 90 Days – 34 declares dividend. The record date is December 13, 2010.
Disclaimer: Mutual Fund is subject to market risk, please read the offer document carefully before investing.

Market Mantra
House Recommendations

House Recommendations
The large cap Buys and Sells are relative outperformer and underperformer bets vis-à-vis the Nifty
respectively. Reduce portfolio weight in stocks with Sell rating. Midcap Buys are based on absolute
return expectations.

Top Large-cap Buys


Stock Sector Reco price (Rs) Sector View
Bajaj Auto Auto 1,518 Positive
Dr Reddy’s Pharmaceutical 1,660 Positive
Infosys IT Services 2,967 Neutral
L&T Infrastructure 2,020 Positive
PNB Banking 1,289 Positive
Sterlite Metals 169 Neutral
Source: India Infoline Research

Best Mid-cap Buys


Stock Sector Reco price (Rs) Target (Rs) Expected Return (%)
Unity Infra Infrastructure 104 140 34.6
Yes Bank Banking 329 400 21.6
Petronet LNG Oil & Gas 116 140 20.7
Tulip Telecom Telecom 177 215 21.5
Source: India Infoline Research

Top Large-cap Sells


Stock Sector Reco price (Rs) Sector View
ACC Cement 982 Negative
Ambuja Cements Cement 141 Negative
NALCO Metals 401 Neutral
Source: India Infoline Research
Economy

Quarterly GDP growth Inflation


GDP (LHS) GDP Growth % (RHS) 15.0 (%)
13,000 13.0
(Rs bn) (%)
12,000 12.0
11,000 11.0
9.0
10,000
9,000
9.0 6.0
8,000
7,000 3.0
6,000 7.0
0.0
5,000
4,000 5.0 (3.0)
Mar-06

Mar-07

Mar-08

Mar-09

Mar-10
Sep-05

Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-08

Sep-09

Sep-10

Dec-06
Feb-07
Apr-07
Jun-07
Aug-07
Oct-07
Dec-07
Feb-08
Apr-08
Jun-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
G-Secs yield M3 growth
10 Yr Gsecs 5 Yr Gsecs M3 (LHS) M3 yoy % (RHS)
8.5 60,000 40.0
(%) 1 Yr Gsecs (Rs bn) (%)
55,000 35.0
7.5
30.0
50,000
6.5 25.0
45,000
20.0
5.5 40,000
` 15.0
35,000
10.0
4.5
30,000 5.0
3.5 25,000 0.0
May-10

May-09
Nov-09

Mar-10

Nov-08

Mar-09

Nov-10
Dec-08

Feb-09

Apr-09

Jun-09

Aug-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

Jun-10

Aug-10

Oct-10

Dec-10

Jan-09

Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10

Sep-10
Jul-09

Jul-10

CRR, Repo IIP and Six key infra industry growth


7.0 (%) CRR Repo 10 IIP growth Six key infra ind growth (%) 20.0
6.5 9 18.0
6.0 8 16.0
7 14.0
5.5
6 12.0
5.0 5 10.0
4.5 4 8.0
3 6.0
4.0
2 4.0
3.5
1 2.0
3.0 0 0.0
May-10
Mar-10
Dec-08

Feb-09

Apr-09

Jun-09

Aug-09

Oct-09

Dec-09

Jan-10

Aug-10

Oct-10
Jul-10

Dec-10

Oct-08

Feb-09

Jun-09

Oct-09

Feb-10

Jun-10

Oct-10

Market Mantra
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45

FDI

0
200
400
600
800

(400)
(200)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jun-05
Oct-08
Jan-09
Dec-05
Dec-08
(US$ bn)
Mar-09

(Rs bn)

Market Mantra
Economy…

Fiscal deficit
Trade deficit

(US$ mn)
Feb-09 Jun-06
May-09
Apr-09 Dec-06
Jul-09
Jun-09
Jun-07
Sep-09
Aug-09
Dec-07
Oct-09 Nov-09
Jun-08
Dec-09 Jan-10

Feb-10 Mar-10 Dec-08

Apr-10 Jun-09
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10 Dec-09
Aug-10
Sep-10 Jun-10
Oct-10
0
5
10
15

150
200
250
300
350
(10)
(5)

20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Dec-08
Jun-05
Oct-08
Jan-09
Dec-08 Dec-05
Mar-09
(US$ bn)

(US$ bn)

Feb-09
May-09 Jun-06
Mar-09
Jun-09
May-09 Dec-06
Aug-09
RBI forex reserves

Jul-09

Currency movement
Sep-09 Jun-07

INR/USD
INR/GBP
Sep-09
Current account deficit

Nov-09
Nov-09 Dec-07
Jan-10
Dec-09
Feb-10 Jun-08
Feb-10
Apr-10
Apr-10 Dec-08
May-10

INR/EURO
Jun-10 Jun-09
Jul-10

INR/100 Yen
Aug-10
Sep-10
Dec-09
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10 Jun-10
Event Calendar

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday


December 01 December 02 December 03 December 04
- India exports - US total vehicle - US
yoy% sales unemployment
- India imports rate
yoy% - Factory Orders
- US Consumer
Confidence

December 06 December 07 December 08 December 09 December 10 December 11


- US consumer - US Initial - India Oct IIP - US Monthly
credit jobless claims - US Trade budget
- Wholesale Balance statement
inventories

December 13 December 14 December 15 December 16 December 17 December 18


- India Nov - US FOMC rate - US building
inflation data decision permits
- US PPI index - US empire - Housing starts
mom manufac
- US business
inventories

December 20 December 21 December 22 December 23 December 24 December 25


- US consumer - US initial jobless
confidence claims

December 27 December 28 December 29 December 30 December 31


- US consumer
confidence

Orange: AGM/dividend (D), Black: Results, Blue: Economic data

Market Mantra
Recommendation parameters for fundamental reports:

Buy – Absolute return of over +10%


Market Performer – Absolute return between -10% to +10%
Sell – Absolute return below -10%

Published in 2010. © India Infoline Ltd 2010

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