1. Estimation the future age structure of the population 15 years.

Male
Age
Group
0 - 14
15 - 29
30 - 44
45 - 59
60+

Female
Age
Group
0 - 14
15 - 29
30 - 44
45 - 59
60+

12000
18000
40000
36000
30000
Male

-

Number
30,000
36,000
40,000
18,000
12,000
136,000

Number
30,000
35,000
40,000
19,000
14,000
138,000

Death
Rate
0.01
0.02
0.05
0.15
0.6

Survival
Rate
0.99
0.98
0.95
0.85
0.4

Death
Rate
0.01
0.02
0.04
0.1
0.45

Survival
Rate
0.99
0.98
0.96
0.9
0.55

14000
19000
40000
35000
30000
Female

60+
45-59
30-44
15-29
0-14

Survivor
39,000
29,700
35,280
38,000
20,100
162,080

Survivor
39,000
29,700
34,300
38,400
24,800
166,200

21000
38000
35280
29700
39000
Male

Birth
Rate
1.2
0.9

24800
38400
34300
29700
39000
Female

It can be seen that in 15 years time the population of the older people is increasing
rapidly due to the improvement in the medical services.

1

-

The younger population is slightly decreasing because of the small birth rate since
marriage is no longer become the priority.
The female population is slightly bigger than the male population due to the
bigger survival rate for female population.

2. Headship rate method
Headship rate method (Present Time)
Age Group
0 - 14
15 - 29
30 - 44
45 - 59
60+

Male
30,000
36,000
40,000
18,000
12,000
136,000

Headship Rate
0.00
0.33
0.88
0.91
0.35

Household
0
11,880
35,200
16,380
4,200
67,660

Women
30,000
35,000
40,000
19,000
14,000
138,000

Household
0
9,801
31,046
34,580
7,035
82,462

Women
39,000
29,700
34,300
38,400
24,800
166,200

Headship
Rate
0
0.07
0.18
0.2
0.41

Household
0
2,450
7,200
3,800
5,740
19,190

Headship rate method (15 years Time)
Age Group
0 - 14
15 - 29
30 - 44
45 - 59
60+

Male
39,000
29,700
35,280
38,000
20,100
162,080

Headship Rate
0.00
0.33
0.88
0.91
0.35

Headship
Rate
0
0.07
0.18
0.2
0.41

Household
0
2,079
6,174
7,680
10,168
26,101

Total population at present time = 67,660 + 19,190 = 86,850
Total population at 15 years time = 82,462 + 26,101 = 108,563
Average household at present time = population at present / households at present
= 274,000 / 86,850
= 3.15
Average household size after 15 years = Forecast population / Forecast household
= 328,280 / 108,563
= 3.02

2

The average household size is decreasing after 15 years time
3. The present employment:
- The basic sector = 55,090
- The non basic sector = 79,330
The basic sector annual rate = 1.6 % for the next 15 years
(a) . Estimate the labour demand and supply after 15 years.
Et = Bt + Nt = 55,090 + 79,330 = 134,420
m = E / B = 134,420 / 55,090 = 2.44
Annual growth rate = 0.016
n = 15 years
Average growth rate for 15 years forecast = (1 + r)n
= (1 + 0.016)15
= 1.269
B(t+15) = 55,090 x 1.269 = 69,909
E(t+15) = mB(t+15)
= 2.44 x 69,909
= 170,578
Therefore the labour demand for 15 years is 170,578
Pt(15-60) = (36,000 + 40,000 + 18,000) + (35,000 + 40,000 + 19,000) = 188,000
Pt = total population = 136,000 + 138,000 = 274,000
P(t+15)(15-60) = (29,700 + 35,280 + 38,000) + (29,700 + 34,300 + 38400) = 205,380
P(t+15) = 162,080 + 166,200 = 328,280
wt = Pt(15-60) / Pt = 188,000 / 274,000 = 0.686
w(t+15) = P(t+15)(15-60) / P(t+15) = 205,380 / 328,280 = 0.626
Ls = aP = (wp)P
134,420 = (0.686p)(274,000)
P = 0.715
Ls(t+15) = (0.626)(0.715)(328280)
= 146,935
Therefore the labour supply after 15 years is 146,935
(b) . The population demand and the amount of in-migration
Labour need = Labour demand – Labour supply
= 170,578 – 146,935
= 23,643

3

Balance the system, Ld = Ls
170,578 = (0.626)(0.715)Pt+n
Pt+15 = 381,103
Therefore the population demand is 381,103
Hence, the amount of migration = 381,103 – 328,280 = 52,823

(c) . Present time have 91,421 dwelling units with no housing shortage or oversupply
(i) Without migration
Present = 86,850, St = 3.15, Pt = 274,000
Future = 108,563, S(t+15) = 3.02, P(t+15) = 328,280
At present Hd = Hs = 91,421
= Pt / (St O)
O = 274,000 / (3.15 x 91,421) = 0.95
H(t+15) = 328,280 / (3.02 x 0.95) = 114,423
Therefore the future housing demand after 15 years is 114,423
(ii) With migration
Total population with migration = 381,103
H(t+15) = 381,103 / (3.02 x 0.95) = 132,834
Therefore the future housing demand after 15 years with migration is 132,834
(d) . Average density = 140 du/ha (dwelling units per hectare)
(i)

Without migration

New land needed for housing after 15 years = (114,423 / 140) – (91,421 / 140)
= 164.3 ha
(ii)

With migration

New land needed for housing after 15 years with migration
= (132,834 / 140) – (91,421 / 140)
= 295.8 ha

4

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