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2010 International Conference on Computational and Information Sciences

2010 International Conference on Computational and Information Sciences


2010 International Conference on Computational and Information Sciences
2010 International Conference on Computational and Information Sciences
An Analysis and Forecasting of White Liquor Market Based on Web Data Mining

Shuwen Guanghong Lei


Zhou
Department o f Comp uter Science Department of Computer Science
Sichuan Institute of Technology Sichuan Institute of Technology
Zigong, China Zigong, China

Abstract — This paper investigates the advantages of using the amount of information collected is large, the collecting
web data to forecast white liquor market demand. The authors process takes less time, and it is economical and convenient
constructed the corresponding relationship between web to perform investigation on white liquor market demand
information structure and white liquor market demand, using internet. Compared with the traditional market
explored the methods of using web data mining techniques to
investigation, the superiority of using web data mining is
analyze and predict white liquor market demands, and
very obvious: the web sites contain a huge amount of
established the principles of constructing knowledge base
structure-based data, such as dynamic hyperlinks, and the
based on the forecasting infor mation.
detailed information on every visit to specific web site (web
page counter). This kind of information has provided a rich
Keywords-web data; data mining; white liquor market demand
forecasting resource for web data mining. The differences between the
web data mining and traditional market survey on the white
I. INTRODUCTION
liquor market has been shown in Figure 1. Figure 1.
The white liquor industry in China exists for a long
demonstrates that web data mining outperforms traditional
time. And it is a trad itional industry that has a relatively
market survey regarding the analysis of white liq uor market
long production chain. The white liquor is one of Chinese
in terms of cost, information quantity, the time to spend, the
traditional liquors, which carries on the spirit and concept
way consumers get involved, and feedback to the product.
of Chinese people and the cultural convention. There are
400 million people who drink white liquor in China, and the
consumptio n quantity on Chinese market is about 4,000,000

tons. The trend in next generation of white liquor has


appeared, and the quality of white liquor is improved

gradually. But as a result of consumer's dissociated state,


the manufacturers could collect the information of related
consumer afterwards. Thus it is very difficult to obtain the
latent demand characteristics, and it does not help to
develop the new markets and expand customer base. We
propose a novel forecasting method and demand analysis of
Figure 1 . Comparison of web data mining on the white liquor
white liquor market based on the wed data.
market with traditional survey on the white liquor market
There are many advantages by using web data mining to
analyze and forecast the white liquor market, including that

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978-0-7695-4270-6/10 $26.00 © 2010 IEEE
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DOI $26.00 © 2010 IEEE
10.1109/ICCIS.2010.57
978-0-7695-4270-6/10
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DOI $26.00 © 2010 IEEE
10.1109/ICCIS.2010.57
978-0-7695-4270-6/10
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DOI $26.00 © 2010 IEEE
10.1109/ICCIS.2010.57
DOI 10.1109/ICCIS.2010.57
The organization of the paper is as follows: In Sectio n II, we H om epa ge 1 H om epag e 2 … … .. W hit e li qu or ma rk et

introduce the construction of mapping frame between the


m a rk e t E x pens e
W ebI nf or ma tio n
co m mu nit y
web information structure and white liquor market demand. s our ce

White liquor market analysis and forecasting based on web Ent erp ri se 1 Ent erp ri s e n … …. Communit y 1 C o mmu n ity n

data mining are presented in Section III, We sum up this


A p ro duct … … B pr odu ct

paper in Section IV.


…. ….

II. CONSTRUCTION OF MAPPING FRAME BETWEEN WEB


INFORMATION ORGANIZATION AND WHITE LIQUOR MARKET
DEMAND

Certain problems still exist even though it will be


Figure 2 White liquor market web information structure
much better using web data mining techniques than using
and the mapping frame
traditional market survey on white liquor markets. For
example, the amount of web data is too large, and the data
structures from different source are not compatible. So this
situation makes it hard to perform analysis and prediction on
III. WHITE LIQUOR MARKET ANALYSIS AND
the acquired raw data of white liquor market demand, and
FORECASTING BASED ON WEB DATA MINING MODEL
makes it hard to analyze the demands of latent customers.
Therefore, in order to fully use web data source for market A. performing consumer group analysis and
analysis and forecasting based on research objectives, we constructing forecasting system based on web data

need to construct a mapping frame between the web


Considering the web data and the white liquor market's
information structure and white liquor market demand
mapping frame as the basis, we may carry out the white
according to market demand.
liquor market demand analysis based on the web data
White liquor market data set consists of enterprise’s
mining techniques. Through analyzing the factors that
popularity, scale, aggregation, the comp etition, the existing
would affect white liquor market demand, characteristics of
market condition and so on. The customer's age, k no wledge
white liquor product, and life cycles of white liquor, we
structure, consumption preference and other characteristics
perform custo mer group analysis and construct the
constitute the consumer data set. The two data sets remain
forecasting system. Forecasting systems can be divided into
independent, which form the organization frame o f market
two levels: entire web information source oriented and
demand (Figure 2). The data mining techniques are applied
white liquor product oriented. The forecasting system
to extract useful pattern or information. For example, the
oriented entire web information source (the first level) will
customer’s expense preference can be judged by he or she
organize and categorize the web data again to perform
always browses some specific web site that provides some
customer group analysis and works as the frame work o f
specific brand of white liquor. By using clustering
forecasting. On the other hand, the second level of
technique, we can categorize different customers in terms of
forecasting system is based on the custo mer demand, the
their education levels or preferences in order to better serve
trend of white liquor market, and life cycles of white liquor
them with what they really want. The methods will be
introduced in detail in next section.

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product to analyze the customer focuses and customer conveniently, and accurately, to predict the market demand,
concerns. and further to provide support for enterprise’s development.
Based on our model and analysis, we can see that web data
B. Rules of performing analysis of web information
source mining techniques are very powerful in white liquor market
demand forecasting.
At web informatio n source of the white liquor market,
the characteristics of web information may indicate the user
focuses, such as the product popularity, market value,
seasonal variation, and so on. Through analyzing the unit
REFERENCES
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[3] Zhu Yangyong. Rule data excavation tool collection

The core processing on the web data is to select customer AMINER[J]. High Technology Letters, 2000(3): 19-22.

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relationships between the data and hidden pattern, compare


them with simulation results from market model and the real
data from real market, and finally evaluate the advantages
and disadvantages of each methods and refine the models.

We continue this until we find the optimal solution.

IV. C ONCLUSIONS

Due to the fact that it is easy and fast to retrieve the

data from web sites, the white liquor enterprises make it


possible to make preparation and conduct promotional
events ahead of time. In the meanwhile, using the web data,
white liquor enterprises may also get to know the
characteristics and trends of the market demand fast,

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