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CLIMATE CHANGE: SCIENCE AND IMPLICATIONS IN HEALTH, ENERGY AND AGRICULTURE (*) Halmar Halide (+) JURUSAN FISIKA FMIPA UNHAS

(*) Presentasi pada acara: Sosialisasi Masalah Bencana dan Perubahan Iklim/Cuaca kepada KBI wilayah Regional SULAMPUA dan BALNUSTRA, Ruang Serba Guna Kantor Bank Indonesia, Ternate, Tgl 15 April 2011 (+) Guru Besar dan Kepala Lab. Hidro-Meteorologi

BAHASAN Perubahan Iklim
• Isu Global • Aspek SAINS • Implikasi
Kesehatan: Manajemen DBD Energi: Strategi pembelian gas alam Pertanian: Jadwal tanam dan panen optimal

• Climate Outlook: ENSO and Extreme events

Isu Global: Penentu Kebijakan Energi dan Iklim 2008 USA
Ahli Hukum

Perekayasa Kimia

Ekolog Laut

FISIKAWAN

Carol Browner akan meninggalkan West Wing!
http://www.celsias.com/article/carol-browner-obamas-energy-and-climate-czar-leave/

+es: “The New Foundation for a Clean Energy Economy”:
“Expanding Clean Energy to Historic Levels … Making Homes More Energy Efficient … Investing in Advanced Transportation Systems … Modernizing Our Electricity infrastructure … Cleaning up Coal … Expanding Appliance Efficiency Standards … Leading in Sustainability... “International Leadership … Monitoring Emissions … Climate Change Science and Education … Climate Change Adaptation.” ”

-e: “the catastrophic failure of the administration to pass a climate bill”

Isu Global: Penentu kemenangan PEMILU 2007 DI AUSTRALIA

LOOSER

WINNER

org/wiki/Julia_Gillard .http://en.wikipedia.wikipedia. http://en. the party enjoyed a long period of high popularity in the opinion polls.org/wiki/Kevin_Rudd Beginning with Rudd's election to the Labor leadership. However. a significant fall in Rudd's personal electoral standing was blamed on a proposed Resource Super Profits Tax and the deferral of the Senate-rejected Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme.

SCIENTIST vs POLITICIAN .

atmosfir transparan = 1. atmosfir opak/tak tembus) .Model sederhana Efek Rumah Kaca So = tetapan matahari. energi yang tiba di bumi Alpha = Albedo = rasio energi matahari yang dipantulkan terhadap energi matahari yang tiba Sigma = tetapan Stefan-Boltzmann Epsilon (=0.

edu/courses/climat/radbal.junkscience.html http://www.html OLR= outgoing longwave radiation .umass.geo.KALKULATOR SUHU MUKA BUMI http://www.com/Greenhouse/Earth_temp.

.CLIMATE CHANGE MODELING: PENYEBABNYA ..WHO IS TO BLAME??? HUMAN ATAU NATURE? .

Model rekonstruksi kontributor perubahan iklim [Meehl dkk.2004.. J. Climate] .

2005.Skenario & Proyeksi Konsentrasi CO2 [Meehl dkk. Science ] ..

Skenario & Proyeksi Suhu Udara permukaan (Meehl dkk.. 2005 Science) .

2005..Skenario & Proyeksi Kenaikan Muka-Laut [Meehl dkk. Science] .

Proyeksi suhu global [Meehl dkk. Science] Beda suhu permukaan (oC) rata-rata antara tahun 2080-2099 dan tahun 1980-1999 .. 2005.

APA REALITASNYA? PREDIKSI MODEL VS OBSERVASI .

Proyeksi IPCC vs Observasi CO2 [Monthly CO2 Report. SPPI June 2010] .

Alarmists: Ada korelasi antara Emisi CO2 dan Suhu global Keeling & Whorf. 2006) .. Brohan dkk. 2005.

Skeptics: Emisi CO2 dari penggunaan BBM & suhu global saling independen .

Naval Postgrad. NCAR) .Prediksi (IPCC AR4. 2007) Realitas (CCSP. 2006) PCM= Parallel Climate Model (Los Alamos. US Army.

WWW.SUHU GLOBAL.ORG .SPPI.

html .SUHU TROFOSFIR (via Satelit): http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/FOS %20Essay/Climate_Change_Science.

Bagaimana menjelaskan ketaksesuaian antara prediksi dan observasi? .

PENJELASAN 1: Ada hubungan nonlinearitas antara CO2 dan Pemanasan (sumber: Dr Martin Hetzberg) .

Terrestrial Physics. 1995] .PENJELASAN 2: Ada korelasi Siklus matahari & suhu global [Lassen & Friis-Christensen. Atmos. J.

[Svensmark & Friis-Christensen. 2007] .More active Sun -> more Sunspots -> more solar wind ->less cosmic ray -> less aerosols -> less low clouds -> more sun light to the surface -> global warming.

DAMPAK PERUBAHAN IKLIM .

WWW.PERUBAHAN TUTUPAN ES WWW.ORG . FEB 2010.SPPI. MONTHLY CO2 REPORT.PEWCLIMATE.ORG MONCKTON.

KENAIKAN MUKA-LAUT .

ORG WWW.AKTIVITAS BADAI WWW.ORG .SPPI.PEWCLIMATE.

. BREAKING NEWS!!! .HANG ON..

http://www.net/id67.spaceandscience.html .

.

GLOBAL COOLING..GLOBAL WARMING. CLIMATE ALWAYS CHANGES ANTISIPASI KITA DARI KEJADIAN MASA LALU? ....

Dampak perubahan iklim pada peradaban dan ekosistem (Burrough. 1997) . “Does the weather really matter?”.

IMPLIKASI PERUBAHAN IKLIM: PERINGATAN DINI EPIDEMI DBD .

OBSERVASI PERUBAHAN IKLIM DAN KASUS DBD DI MAKASSAR IOD ENSO .

Permodelan Epidemi DBD: Metode analisis Input (iklim/meteorologis + kasus DBD lalu) Output (kasus DBD mendatang) Pemodelan statistika: Stepwise Regression and Discriminant Model prediktif epidemi DBD .

2008. 2009] . Halide.Skill model prediktif [Halide & Ridd.

Economic value model prediktif [Halide 2009a. LOSS (L) and Cost (C) VALUE INDEX .b] EXPENSES (E).

(2010. 2011) .SISTEM PERINGATAN DINI DBD Halide et al.

IMPLIKASI PERUBAHAN IKLIM: STRATEGI PEMBELIAN GAS ALAM .

STRATEGI Changnon dkk. (2000) Hubungan antara fasa ENSO dengan musim dingin mendatang .

(a) decision-tree dari masingmasing sumber informasi (b) keputusan sintesa (c) hasil keputusan pembelian gas .Keuntungan ekonomis Proses dan hasil pengambilan keputusan pembelian gas.

IMPLIKASI PERUBAHAN IKLIM: MANAJEMEN KOMODITAS .

Argentina. . 2000] Curah hujan rata-rata periode 1931-1966 sesuai 3 fasa ENSO dan penjadwalan tanaman (masa tanam dan panen) berbagai jenis komoditas di Pergamino..JADWAL MUSIM TANAM [Jones dkk.

. 2000] Panen jagung yang diharapkan dari pengelolaan optimal sesuai jenis prediksi fase ENSO dan curah hujan..MANAJEMEN TANAM [Jones dkk.

CLIMATE OUTLOOK: ENSO AND EXTREME EVENTS .

continuing but weakening La Nina conditions during the March-May 2011 season currently in progress .

RELASI ENSO DAN HUJAN EKSTRIM El Niño La Niña El Niño La Niña .

2008) . Fisika Unhas 2010 LDEO5 = Super Computer (Chen dkk. 2004) IndOzy = Personal Computer (Halide and Ridd..Prediksi: El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Daud/David (PC) vs Jalut/Goliath (SC) PC Mah.

2011.TUGAS AKHIR PREDIKTIF MODELING M. Hartini. 2010. 2009. 2004. 2009. Rafiqah. 2010. Thunder-Storm predictions using a discriminant analysis model. 2002. 2010. Determining the volume of Vesica Urinaria Organs using USG machine. Modeling of climate effects on Cakalang catch at Kab. Tahir. St. S. 2004. I. D. Fahmi. 2004. Wardah. Climate-based Predictive model for corn plantations. Haniah. 2004. Wahyuni. Puji Pratiwi. RP Tulak. Majene. Modeling sugarcane yields using El Niño Southern Oscillation index. Applying Geographical Information System in determining spatio-temporal pattern of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever. 2009. Modeling of pest and disease attacks on Cocoa plants based on rainfall and ENSO data. R. 2004. A. 2004. 2009. 2003. 2010. Nurhaeda. 2011. Maryam. 2002. Evaluating daily weather prediction skill. 2005. Suwarjono. Climate-based predictive modeling for Scad catches. Trend analysis and modelling of regional effects on surface temperature at Hasanuddin airport. 2003. 2004. Evaluating Predictive modeling of ENSO 2005-2010. Evaluating Urban Heat Island for City and Rural Areas. 2010. A simple model for determining Hilal (start of an Islamic Month). Rais. M Alotasik. SD Mangalik. 2004. Raufika EF. Predicting Electricity Production using ARMA Model. Modeling malaria endemicity using ENSO H. Analysing Rupiah-US dollar-Yen arbitrage within econophysics framework. Rahmah. Spatio-temporal prediction of rainfall using a Discriminant Analysis. H. Weather factors affecting aircrafts landing at Hasanuddin airport . Indonesia. 2009. Using ENSO index for predicting white prawn catches. 2010. Modeling of the Monsoon-Dipole-ENSO interaction affecting rice production. Hartina A. Kaddi. Firdaus. 2004. 2010. 2003. 2005. MA Abdi. Tulak. 2009. Predicting monthly rainfall at Hasanuddin Airport using a multivariate model. N. Irawati. Comparing climate characteristics using Mohr and Schmidt-Fergusson. Usman. Modeling cotton production using ENSO index. Projecting Needs of Drinking Water based on Weather and Demography. An early-warning system of forest fire based on local environmental condition. 2011. 2004. Syahril. Anwar. 2002. Modeling Markisa productivity in Tana Toraja based on local climate Nurlinah. Climate-based modeling for drinking water production and consumption. Rainfalls affecting Coffee productivity at Gowa regency Panji PJ. 2009. Sri Hartati R. 2004. 2010. AR Wita. Kondorura. Climate-based modeling for electricity production at Bakaru Hydropower plant. PIS Samad. Modeling the effect of local and global climate on White Prawn Catch in Makassar. Said. Mukhlis. Nurhakiki. Nirmalasari. RA Ramadhan. 2003. Hasnia. Ma’mur. 2010. Analysis of safelight power and exposure time on fogging levels. I. Evaluating drought prediction skill for rice fields in the island of Java. Modeling ENSO effects on fluctuating diarrhea cases M. Modeling the effect of Local Climate on Cacao productivity in Luwu Utara. Modeling of corn yield failures using global climate indices. Tudin. Using El Niño Southern Oscillation index on modeling Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever endemic. Muliadi. Designing an Early Warning System for Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Makassar City. 2010. Evaluating Rainfall Prediction of the South Sulawesi Province during 2008-2009. Climate based predictive modeling for Corn productivity in Maros. Inang PA. 2011. N. 2004. Determining planting time for cotton using rainfall data. Climate-based model for predicting Haemonchus sp attacks on goats at Maros regency. Comparing coronary diagnostics via ROC analysis.