October 14, 2010

The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch: 2011 To 2013
by Gene Leganza for Enterprise Architecture Professionals

Making Leaders Successful Every Day

For Enterprise Architecture Professionals

The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch: 2011 To 2013
An Empowered report: High-impact Technologies That you Should Track
by Gene Leganza with Alex cullen and mimi An

October 14, 2010

ExEcuT i v E S u m mA ry
Forrester began summarizing technology trends last year to help enterprise architects create their organizations’ technology watch lists. For this year’s list of top trends, we’ve used the same criteria — impact, newness, and complexity — but we’ve modified the categories, merged related topics, added five new trends, and updated all the entries with this year’s perspective. This year’s categories? “Empowered” technologies, process-centric data and intelligence, agile and fit-to-purpose applications, and smart technology management. Also new this year are the results from a survey we ran as input to this report that asked respondents to rate more than 40 technologies for impact to their organization in the next three years.

TAbL E O F cO n TE nTS
2 Technology Evolves Quickly; EAs Should Be On Their Toes Formalize your Technology Watch List To Stay On Top Of High-impact Trends Where Our Survey respondents Are Placing Their bets 5 Forrester’s Top 15 Technology Trends For Enterprise Architects To Watch Theme no. 1: “Empowered” Technologies Theme no. 2: Process-centric Data And intelligence Theme no. 3: Agile And Fit-To-Purpose Applications Theme no. 4: Smart Technology management
rEcOmmEnDATiOnS

n OT E S & rE S O u rcE S
Forrester analysts from across teams collaborated to identify and rank technologies that are new or changing, have the potential for significant impact, and require an iT-led strategy to exploit.

Related Research Documents “Smart computing Drives The new Era Of iT Growth” December 4, 2009
“The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch” October 6, 2009

21 Empowered Organizations Are More Than The Sum Of Their Empowered Parts 22 Supplemental Material

© 2010, Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited. Information is based on best available resources. Opinions reflect judgment at the time and are subject to change. Forrester®, Technographics®, Forrester Wave, RoleView, TechRadar, and Total Economic Impact are trademarks of Forrester Research, Inc. All other trademarks are the property of their respective companies. To purchase reprints of this document, please email clientsupport@forrester.com. For additional information, go to www.forrester.com.

The results? Forty-five of the items on the list got at least one vote of confidence. October 14. and human-centric business process management (BPM). and the time frame in an easy-to-grasp graphic (see Figure 1). green IT. Where Our Survey Respondents Are Placing Their Bets We received 65 responses to the online survey we posted.000 employees. EAS ShOuLD BE On ThEiR TOES In the year that has passed since Forrester published its last “top trends” research report. business intelligence. the potential deployment risk.1 Forrester has seen IT strategy documents with formal plans for diverse areas ranging from cloud-based deployments.2 As for what continues to emerge. the authors contrast the positive impact of innovative use of social media along with mobile and cloud technologies against the sometimes dire results of ignoring these same technologies. collaboration and social media. Technologies that made the top 10 for expected impact in larger organizations that did not appear on the smaller organizations’ shortlist were master data management. reproduction Prohibited . Technologies included in the smaller organizations’ top 10 that were not on the larger organizations’ shortlist were security for wireless and mobile devices. they can also be ideal tools for socializing technology plans and generating dialogue with business stakeholders — but only if you can connect the technologies to specific business needs and desired business capabilities. which didn’t exist as an option five years ago. but the technologies that respondents expected to have the most impact on their organizations were mobile technologies. This survey listed 46 technologies or technology areas and asked people to rate what they thought would have impact in their organizations over the next three years. Formalize your Technology Watch List To Stay On Top Of high-impact Trends In last year’s document. Forrester recommended that architects gain control of this runaway train by keeping track of the trends in a formal watch list that highlights their potential value to IT or the business. and the most effective approach shows the value to the enterprise.2 The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch: 2011 To 2013 For Enterprise Architecture Professionals TEchnOLOGy EvOLvES QuickLy. social media analytics. business rules processing. We found some interesting differences in the technologies of interest for organizations with fewer than 5. inc. public Webinars from vendors this year covered big data. security in the cloud — the list goes on and on. and infrastructure virtualization (see Figure 2). Defining your own custom criteria and filtering Forrester’s list of technologies can help you focus on the trends that are likely to have high impact in your organization. While architects typically use these new technology road maps as planning documents. security technology in general. portfolio management tools. We’ve seen some examples of these watch lists in use. NoSQL.000 employees versus those for organizations with more than 5. the technology landscape has continued to change. 2010 © 2010. Forrester research. and customer community platforms. telepresence. social network and social media analysis. to strategies for tablet PCs — which didn’t exist as an option before Apple’s iPad launch in the spring of this year! Those who doubt that the changing technology landscape can have dramatic business impact need only to check out the real-world examples in Forrester’s book Empowered.

56871 © 2010. inc. Inc. Forrester research.el es int oc d Pr an “E m po w er ed ”t ec hn 2013 Real-time BI 2012 Collaboration platform Enterprise value Deployment risk High risk Medium risk Low risk Very high value October 14. reproduction Prohibited Low value Medium value High value y og ol t hn en ec m t t ge ar ana Sm m .The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch: 2011 To 2013 For Enterprise Architecture Professionals 3 Figure 1 Tailor your Organization’s new Tech road map ol og ie s ta da e ric c nt en ce lig s. 2010 IaaS MDM Social network analysis Mobile apps 2011 BPM Business rules Event-driven patterns APM Client virtualization System management automation Ag ile a ap nd fi pl tica to tio -pu ns rp o se Source: Forrester Research.

and/or networks Security related to wireless and mobile devices Software-as-a-service 6% 12% 8% 9% 8% 12% 6% 9% Data quality services 6% Data integration 8% Security technology in general 8% Application portfolio management 11% 17% and project portfolio management tools 17% Master data management 12% 5% 20% Real-time business intelligence Social network analysis and social 8% 26% media analytics Content management 15% 11% Platform-as-a-service 9% Data. And virtualization “How much impact will the follow technology areas have in the next two years?” Don’t know Technology or technology area Mobile devices and/or apps 5% 5% Little or no impact 19% 22% 20% 23% 26% 32% 22% 15% 5% 22% 26% 37% 22% 22% 28% 19% 28% 23% 28% 31% 26% 23% 29% 31% 31% 26% 23% 34% 26% 20% 23% 25% 22% 17% 20% Some impact Strong impact 72% 63% 62% 60% 54% 52% 51% 51% 51% 51% 49% 48% 48% 46% 45% 45% 43% 43% 42% 42% 42% 39% 39% 38% 38% 5% 11% Collaboration/Web 2. bi. October 14. inc.and content-based security 9% Business rules processing Systems management and automation 12% 14% 23% 19% 14% 17% Customer community platforms 11% Telepresence or enhanced use of video 8% communication in general Network intrusion prevention 11% Information-as-a-service 11% Client virtualization Metadata management/business metadata 12% 12% Portal software 8% Base: 65 IT professionals (percentages may not total 100 because of rounding) Source: August 2010 Global Technology Trends Online Survey 56871 Source: Forrester Research. 2010 © 2010.4 The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch: 2011 To 2013 For Enterprise Architecture Professionals Figure 2 Our Survey respondents Place Their bets On mobility. collaboration.0/social media Business intelligence Virtualized servers. storage. reproduction Prohibited . Inc. Forrester research.

we compiled the · . Inc.The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch: 2011 To 2013 For Enterprise Architecture Professionals 5 FORRESTER’S TOP 15 TEchnOLOGy TREnDS FOR EnTERPRiSE ARchiTEcTS TO WATch While none of the trends we listed last year have faded into obscurity or become so absorbed into the mainstream that they have lost their “new” feel. mobile devices. We carried over our two categories for “process-centric data and intelligence” and “agile and fit-to-purpose applications” from last year’s list. cloud-based platforms and software-as-aservice are part of the broad and evolving trend of cloud deployments in general. We noted four instances where we could express individual trends as part of a broader trend: Real-time data quality services is an inextricable part of real-time BI. . or IT external relationships Technology area where firms are likely to have little or no knowledge or experience Complexity in terms of areas affected or uncertain strategy Source: Forrester Research. . · Merged related smaller trends into broader trends reflecting business use cases. inc. · Dropped lower-impact trends . . Five new high-impact trends hit our radar list of competing technology trends and scored them according to our criteria (see Figure 3). We merged the categories for social. reproduction Prohibited October 14. and business rules and policy-based SOA are both part of the trend to externalize rules to make applications — and enterprises — more flexible and agile. and applications are all part of business processes going mobile. 2) information-as-a-service (IaaS) finds a broader audience. Following the process we defined last year. 4) system management enables continued virtualization. networks. to make room for new high-impact entries. 3) analytics target text and social networks. . we sorted them by impact and took only the top 15. Forrester research. and cloud technologies into a single “‘empowered’ technologies” category to align with the use cases in our latest book. this year’s list is fresh because we: · Revamped the categories. mobile. or responsiveness or delivery quality for a major IT function. screen for enterprise impact in the next three years: 1) event-driven patterns demand attention. To keep the list a manageable size. Business IT “Newness” Complexity 56871 © 2010. and 5) IT embraces planning and analysis tools to manage the future (see Figure 4). We added a category for “smart technology management” to showcase the trends that can help IT create order from the technology complexity that continues to unfold. 2010 . Figure 3 criteria used To Select Technologies Criteria Business/IT impact Definition Capabilities that will have an impact on operating model and external relationships compared with what the business is likely to have today Positive or negative impact on major cost areas.

SaaS and cloud-based platforms become standard. Master data management matures. BPM will be Web-2. and self-service. 2010 © 2010. agility.0-enabled. Apps and business processes go mobile on powerful devices and faster networks. inc. Telepresence gains widespread use. Client virtualization is ubiquitous. Event-driven patterns demand attention. Business rules processing and policy-based SOA move to the mainstream. reproduction Prohibited . IT embraces planning and analysis tools to manage the future. Forrester research. Customer community platforms integrate with business apps. Analytics target text and social networks. New for 2011 to 2013 56871 Source: Forrester Research.6 The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch: 2011 To 2013 For Enterprise Architecture Professionals Figure 4 The Top 15 Technology Trends Scored by criteria Technology trend Next-gen BI takes shape. System management enables continued virtualization. combining real-time access with pervasiveness. IaaS finds a broader audience. Collaboration platforms become people-centric. Impact Very high Very high Very high Very high Very high High High High High High High High High High Moderate “Newness” Complexity High High High Moderate Moderate Very high Very high Very high Very high Very high Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate High High High Very high Low High High High High High Low to high Moderate Moderate Moderate Very high Low October 14. Inc.

Complexity Very high: IT-business relationships will change with respect to SaaS. Virtualized data center services — both raw computing infrastructure and platforms for application development — are viable alternatives for some custom application needs. while completely re-evaluating capacity issues as well as architecture standards for applications developed or hosted in the cloud. Figure 5 Key Technology Trends Driving “Empowered” Technologies 5-1 SaaS and cloud-based platforms become standard If you still think the best answer when deploying any new application is to buy a server and rack it in your data center. scalability.The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch: 2011 To 2013 For Enterprise Architecture Professionals 7 Theme no. but savvy IT shops will look to cloud options for IT deployment cost optimization and strategic rightsourcing. collaboration platforms. ”SaaS Valuation Criteria” report by Liz Herbert 56871 Source: Forrester Research. Impact Very high business impact: SaaS-based applications will enable business execs to address application functionality. and IaaS and PaaS options require a reexamination of financial models. 2010. and Forrester’s February 22. organizations will use cloud platforms for new application workloads where rapid deployment and scalability are required. “Newness” High: SaaS options expand as new IaaS and PaaS options continue to evolve. As SaaS’s momentum continues. © 2010. with SaaS-based applications continuing as its most prevalent form as concerns such as security and availability recede. you are woefully behind the times and may just be making the most expensive and slowest decision possible. Even if IT mostly uses IaaS and PaaS options. risk. inc. 2010 . Inc. 2009. organizations will need to expand the range of requirements for which a SaaS-based solution is appropriate and define new roles for business-side application and vendor management. Very high IT impact: IT execs must triage where they invest their resources as well adopt new application support practices for SaaS. and operations processes. Q3 2009” report by James Staten. and cloud-based capabilities for rapid deployment of innovative new ideas. reproduction Prohibited October 14. mobile technologies. Cloud computing is here to stay. 1: “Empowered” Technologies Forrester’s book Empowered shows the dramatic impact possible from combining Social Computing. Further reading: Forrester’s October 2. Think outside the box — and enable the individuals in your enterprise to do so — by evaluating the key technology trends driving empowered technologies (see Figure 5). Initially. And anyone who thinks that the big impact is limited to social-networkbased consumer marketing is missing the major benefits coming from enabling innovation by an increasingly tech-savvy workforce. ”TechRadar™ For Infrastructure & Operations Professionals: Cloud Computing. the business will benefit from rapid deployment. and deployment needs more rapidly. Forrester research.

Peoplecentric collaboration platforms will take advantage of Web 2. 2008. leading to greater organizational responsiveness to business changes. Inc.0 market. Forrester is seeing a substantial ramp in interest. These collaboration platforms will surface expertise and interest as well as availability. Complexity High: The technologies are somewhat straightforward. One-to-one communications such as email will take a smaller share of individuals’ time as the center of collaboration moves to these new platforms. including from “mainstream” industries such as government and financial services. but the organizational change to gain benefits while maintaining controls is substantial.) 5-2 Collaboration platforms become people-centric Collaboration platforms will shift from document-centric to people-centric. tagging. and communities and will shift the emphasis from document collaboration to facilitating the interactions of people in the organization. “Newness” Medium: Although a minority of firms are exploring these technologies today. 2010 © 2010. Impact Very high business impact: Communication and collaboration technologies converge. “Social Computing Changes The Enterprise Collaboration Landscape” report by Rob Koplowitz 56871 Source: Forrester Research. and Forrester’s April 30. Meanwhile. Moderate IT impact: These technologies are integrated into the vendor products IT uses now. Forrester research.0 capabilities such as profiling. Enterprises will look to attain critical mass using tools with broad appeal. “Enterprise Social Networking 2010 Market Overview” report by Rob Koplowitz.8 The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch: 2011 To 2013 For Enterprise Architecture Professionals Figure 5 Key Technology Trends Driving “Empowered” Technologies (cont. Further reading: Forrester’s April 22. October 14. and architects must move quickly to define requirements and establish standards before multiple disconnected solutions take root. inc. 2010. fostering the creation of networks that help people be more effective with their jobs and challenges. social networking in the enterprise will accelerate collaboration in general as organizations rush to establish their strategies and vendors move aggressively to claim some differentiated space in the Web 2. reproduction Prohibited .

Low IT impact: These platforms will be acquired as standalone products or cloud-based services. only the most leading-edge firms have thought about how to combine them with their internal systems. Over the next three years. information integration will be their primary impact. accelerate distribution of marketing messages. These customer communities are quite separate from the internal systems businesses use to run their operations.The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch: 2011 To 2013 For Enterprise Architecture Professionals 9 Figure 5 Key Technology Trends Driving “Empowered” Technologies (cont. Further reading: Forrester’s January 5. reproduction Prohibited October 14. Petouhoff. provide deeper insights about individuals and accounts for sales. “Newness” Very high: While many firms are pursuing customer communities. Forrester research. Businesses are building or connecting with customer communities to gain better insights into customer behaviors and to monitor reactions to business actions. “Topic Overview: Social CRM Goes Mainstream” report by William Band and Natalie L. Impact High business impact: Some firms and functions within the firms will take advantage of this and learn how to use the insights from customer communities to produce better products and services. Organizations can use customer communities to support market research and product development. and lower costs. © 2010.. 2010. 2010 .) 5-3 Customer community platforms integrate with business apps Businesses will integrate external customer communities with their internal business apps. Ph. and Forrester’s upcoming “Zero In On Customer Relationship Management HEROes — The Role Of Advanced Analytics” report by James Kobielus 56871 Source: Forrester Research. inc.D. Inc. and promote customer self-service to drive down support costs. Complexity High: The challenge will be to build business consensus on a strategy and what this integration means for platforms. Forrester expects a shift from standalone communities to communities integrated with internal systems such as customer relationship management systems. heighten market visibility.

the applications they use will become mobile-enabled. Wi-Fi and cellular networks will become increasingly capable of serving as the user’s primary network. .) 5-4 Apps and business processes go mobile on powerful devices and faster networks As users become more mobile. inc. firms are grappling with the best way to turn mobile development into a core extension of existing custom development processes. . High IT impact: IT must add mobile support to applications and will be challenged to manage and secure mobile devices and networks. “Netbooks Remain Adjunct PCs . ”Define Your Mobile Development Strategy” report by Jeffrey S. Moore’s law. October 14. As for custom development. always reachable. Firms will standardize devices less and focus device management and security with a multiplatform strategy. tablets. Meanwhile. And mainstream enterprise IT is interested: Driven by visions of fully mobile. Complexity High: IT and business managers must decide on which applications to mobile-enable while telecom sourcing will need to be revisited and device standards. Mobile devices — smartphones. with few vendors directly addressing them. fixed-rate data plans. and dramatically improved browsers have made developing mobile applications an approachable activity for mainstream development shops. Hammond and Forrester’s July 14. Netbooks and tablets will be more attractive to support employees who are primarily mobile. Forrester research. 2010 © 2010. provisioning. “Newness” Very high: Mobile-aware business processes are very new. and netbooks — are converging around OS-based camps. but will continue to face new challenges. bringing greater efficiency and compliance. and management will need to mature. more productive employees. Inc. 2009. Management of mobile infrastructure and devices is not new. Impact High business impact: Business processes will be extended to the mobile workforce. Further reading: Forrester’s August 24. 2010. reproduction Prohibited . For Now” report by Paul Jackson 56871 Source: Forrester Research. Some packaged apps vendors are providing mobile interfaces that allow people to see pending work and complete tasks on their mobile phone.10 The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch: 2011 To 2013 For Enterprise Architecture Professionals Figure 5 Key Technology Trends Driving “Empowered” Technologies (cont.

But video conferencing won’t really explode until we have true standards and interoperability. Orange. will require network infrastructure adjustments. Theme no. Further reading: Forrester’s April 1. Very low IT impact: Organizations will for the most part outsource this capability to telepresence room operators. Increasingly. © 2010. 2010 . HD videoconferencing. Telepresence brings together globally distributed people in situations where travel never could have been justified. team room. understanding unstructured data plays a critical part in daily operations. Complexity Low: Because telepresence will be implemented as a service. few business leaders are familiar with it. reproduction Prohibited October 14. Inc. “The ROI Of Telepresence” report. there will be little need for investment. And the improved experience is steadily moving from the fit-for-purpose conference room all the way down to the desktop. BT. where analytics are used in batch mode to generate reports that will later guide management decisions. Key technologies that you should evaluate in this category range from real-time business analytics and real-time data quality services to text analytics and social network analysis (see Figure 6).The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch: 2011 To 2013 For Enterprise Architecture Professionals 11 Figure 5 Key Technology Trends Driving “Empowered” Technologies (cont. by Claire Schooley 56871 Source: Forrester Research. Today’s unmanaged information environments and batch-oriented technologies won’t suffice. life-size images and realistic lighting and sound. Telcos including AT&T. “Newness” High: Although there has been recent buzz about telepresence. Impact Medium business impact: Businesses will add “virtual meetings” to their current mix of travel and telephone conference calls and even to client networking events. and Tata have entered the fray and have been joined by systems integrators including IBM and newgeneration managed service providers such as Glowpoint to provide end-to-end solutions that range from build-only to hands-free whiteglove service. real-time information on customer behaviors and market conditions will become more prevalent. Cisco’s acquisition of Tandberg has triggered a scramble to provide solutions for the board room.) 5-5 Telepresence gains widespread use Telepresence will make videoconferencing much more accepted in business by providing high-definition. desktop. During the next three years. and even smartphone. 2: Process-centric Data And intelligence Use of your business’ information assets is hampered by quality and trust issues. inc. allowing frontline operational staff and applications to detect and respond to opportunities — such as adjusting pricing and product offers as demand changes — thereby squeezing more pennies of profit out of each customer touchpoint. but the path won’t be paved until emerging standards efforts gain critical mass. and this use is largely offline. as it becomes more widespread. 2010. “How Tech Strategists Can Ride The Coming Tidal Wave Of Business Video” report by Henry Dewing. The path is surveyed with suppliers like Tata Communications and AT&T providing bridging services between firms and video conferencing vendors providing gateways. and costs will track business adoption. and Forrester’s February 25. 2009. video unit on wheels. Forrester research.

2009. which will in turn drive both pervasiveness and agility.” providing model-less exploration and analysis and on-demand “post-discovery” analysis. 3) unification — of batch and real-time. and 6) self-service for both casual and power users. and free-form exploration are still leading-edge technologies. Complexity High: The complexity challenge will not be around the technologies per se but rather in the continued effort of gaining business consensus on data governance so that bad data is not driving strategic and operational decisions. Firms compete based on insights from analytics.12 The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch: 2011 To 2013 For Enterprise Architecture Professionals Figure 6 Key Technology Trends Driving Process-centric Data And intelligence 6-1 Next-gen BI takes shape combining real-time access with pervasiveness. “Agile BI Out Of The Box ” report by Boris Evelson. inc. data and content. High IT impact: IT needs to enable successful end user BI self-service to keep runaway BI costs in check. operational BI. 4) “no borders. six key trends will characterize next-gen BI: 1) automation to keep the many independent components. and the Information Workplace. end user self-service. The shift from historical to real-time analytics will require that related processes such as data quality services also move to real time. integrating BI with processes. reproduction Prohibited . Inc. and self-service The information economy is here. Impact Very high business impact: Firms will increase their use of analytics to improve their speed of response to changing market conditions. and Forrester’s October 23. 2010. October 14. including automated discovery. agility. and next-gen BI will pave the way for a significant increase in BI’s impact on the enterprise. Additionally. disk and in-memory. apps. moving BI architecture toward integrated metadata and alternatives for the DW/DBMS and exploration technologies. historical and predictive. Further reading: Forrester’s April 22. 2010 © 2010. “Newness” High: Although traditional BI has been around for many years. in sync. Forrester research. 5) agility. and BI is hotter than ever. “Trends In Data Quality” report by Rob Karel 56871 Source: Forrester Research. 2) pervasiveness.

Forrester research. This will be a key technology as social media continues to grow in influence. mapping. interpreting. they are especially powerful. Impact High business impact: These new technologies bring powerful analytics to bear on rich areas as yet untapped for intelligence about customers and products. When text analytics tools are incorporated with other systems such as enterprise content management (ECM) or business intelligence (BI). Social network analysis involves discovering. and Forrester’s upcoming “Zero In On CRM HEROes By Using Social Network Analysis To Mine Influence” report by James Kobielus 56871 Source: Forrester Research. the integrated systems can act on the information. inc. and visualizing relationships among people. Social network analysis is also just emerging. “Newness” Very high: Until recently. and the entities with which they interact. Further reading: Forrester’s October 22. companies. text analytics software was obscure and academic. and structuring information to reveal hidden patterns and relationships. 2010 . reproduction Prohibited October 14. because instead of just reporting or visualizing these patterns or trends. 2009. and there is a rapidly growing amount of text that enterprises care about in social media such as Twitter and other social forums. © 2010. This technology has a compelling value proposition: extracting meaning out of large quantities of text by mining. To make sense of this cacophony. used primarily by early adopters in the life sciences field. Inc.) 6-2 Analytics target text and social networks Enterprises have lots of unstructured content in internal apps such as email and call center notes.The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch: 2011 To 2013 For Enterprise Architecture Professionals 13 Figure 6 Key Technology Trends Driving Process-centric Data And intelligence (cont. “Text Analytics Takes Business Insight To New Depths” report by Leslie Owens. business leaders are pioneering text analytics tools. Enterprises are also turning to analytics for social networks to mine for expertise and influence among customers. Complexity High: Exploiting these technologies will require the kind of IT-business collaboration needed for areas like BI and MDM. and other key stakeholders. groups. employees. Medium IT impact: They will provide a challenge for information architects and tax the semantic capabilities of existing investments.

highperformance transactional applications. IaaS provides a flexible data integration platform based on a newer generation of service-oriented standards that enables ubiquitous access to any type of data. Further reading: Forrester’s February 10. and leveraging existing technology to the extent possible. Impact High business impact: IaaS provides agility and flexibility for enabling high-impact areas such as MDM and BI. and replication approaches. Complexity Low to high: The complexity depends on the scope of the deployment. satisfying an increasing need for agility and automation with quicker ROI for data-driven initiatives. Originally used in limited scenarios focusing on real-time data access. enterprisewide search. inc. IaaS is finding new audiences by focusing beyond read-only use cases. Forrester research. In addition. Forrester is also seeing increased interest in integrating semistructured and unstructured data with IaaS. using a wide range of interface and data access standards. reproduction Prohibited . Inc.) 6-3 IaaS finds a broader audience Organizations continue to show strong interest in IaaS to help them with the increasing data integration challenges they face. Q1 2010” report by Noel Yuhanna and Mike Gilpin 56871 Source: Forrester Research. Small projects focusing on two to three data sources can leverage IaaS with minimal effort. IaaS offers a virtualized data services layer that integrates heterogeneous mashups of data and content to service any application in real time or batch. on any platform. and improved security for access to sensitive data. more-complex. but larger. October 14. 2010.” real-time business intelligence (BI). federated views across multiple lines of business (LOBs). including “single version of the truth.14 The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch: 2011 To 2013 For Enterprise Architecture Professionals Figure 6 Key Technology Trends Driving Process-centric Data And intelligence (cont. “Newness” Very high: IaaS presents an approach to data integration that is significantly different from the traditional EII. “The Forrester Wave™: Information-As-A-Service. 2010 © 2010. enterprisewide data integration projects integrating hundreds of sources or requiring additional data quality and data governance initiatives will add to the complexity. IaaS goes beyond data integration: It can support multiple requirements. ETL. High IT impact: IaaS can significantly alter IT’s approach to its data management strategy.

trusted source of data across function and application silos. and Forrester’s February 4. need for an information architecture. There are a number of technologies that will improve application flexibility. 2010 . inc. MDM is immature even with significant spending in this area. The key business issue is having a standardized. MDM is a business capability leveraging multiple enabling technologies. Q1 2010” report by Noel Yuhanna and Rob Karel 56871 Source: Forrester Research. responsibilities. Inc.The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch: 2011 To 2013 For Enterprise Architecture Professionals 15 Figure 6 Key Technology Trends Driving Process-centric Data And intelligence (cont. hub. “Newness” Medium: Technologies are becoming embedded in major vendor offerings.) 6-4 Master data management matures Master data management (MDM) will continue to become more mature and effective. The three technologies described in Figure 7 will have the largest impact on applications’ ability to change (see Figure 7). registry. Make sure your application strategies are lined up to take advantage of them. how to select the optimal MDM architecture (e. High IT impact: MDM’s IT impact will be high due to the complexity of MDM tools as well as MDM’s span of integration. index — or.. SOA/IaaS. “Trends 2009: Master Data Management” report by Rob Karel. and radically improved data governance.g. federated. Today. Complexity Very high: This technology requires an information architecture synchronized with data governance and quality. 2010 “Forrester TechRadar™: Enterprise Data Integration. and how to support business partners in driving and enabling the necessary data governance infrastructure. MDM solution. the structure of business applications is a major impediment to IT responsiveness. © 2010. a hybrid approach). more realistically. 3: Agile And Fit-To-Purpose Applications Along with IT’s service infrastructure. 2009. and accountabilities as well as the policies and processes that will be necessary to ensure that the MDM strategy can succeed. Theme no. mostly due to a lack of business involvement that leads to business stakeholders not embracing IT-driven requirements. but IT must still ramp up on effective application. and architecture that can actively support the relationships between these domains. Forrester research. what is new is how they are evolving to become easier to leverage and use. analytical. reproduction Prohibited October 14. including setting up the necessary organizational roles. Key issues in this space include: how to move from managing multiple siloed master domains such as customer or product to supporting a data model. Impact High business impact: MDM will enable operational improvements as well as improved business intelligence and compliance. and while some are not new. Further reading: Forrester’s October 23.

Complexity High: Business and IT will need to redesign the responsibilities for application functionality design and support. October 14. and design characteristics of an SOA service to reduce the cost of development and maintenance and achieve better visibility into policies. “How To Get Started On SOA Policy Management” report by Randy Heffner 56871 Source: Forrester Research. Business rules processing enables rule management by business-side experts. Forrester research. 2008. Policy-based SOA architecture will be very new to most environments. Rymer. Externalization exposes rules to policy subject-matter experts for explicit development and maintenance.16 The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch: 2011 To 2013 For Enterprise Architecture Professionals Figure 7 Key Technology Trends Driving Agile And Fit-To-Purpose Applications 7-1 Business rules processing and policy-based SOA move to the mainstream A key trend in application architectures is the externalization of the policies and rules that drive key decision points in application logic. Rules engines with the appropriate.” “Newness” High: Rules processing technology will affect app design practices and the division of responsibility for application change between business and IT. more-personalized experiences based on more-complex conditions. 2008. Policy-based SOA externalizes decisions about the business. 2010 © 2010. while policy-based SOA enables application developers to better manage SOA services to conform to policy and rules. reproduction Prohibited . operational. Forrester expects a long digestion period for policy-based SOA. “Best Practices In Implementing Business Rules” report by Mike Gualtieri and John R. inc. Inc. configuration management infrastructure enable business managers to maintain rules and more quickly explore ways of optimizing business processes. Applications based on business rules processing are moving from niche into mainstream as rules enable the creation of more-responsive. Very high IT impact: Both business rules and policybased SOA will be important for applications that are “built for change. Further reading: Forrester’s October 3. Impact Very high business impact: Business rules processing automates highly conditional transactions that staff members perform manually. and Forrester’s August 26.

While vertical-specific case management tools exist for such areas as social services and law enforcement. Further reading: Forrester’s August 24. 2010. 2010 .The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch: 2011 To 2013 For Enterprise Architecture Professionals 17 Figure 7 Key Technology Trends Driving Agile And Fit-To-Purpose Applications (cont. Web 2. Web 2.0-enabled and continues to adapt to trends such as dynamic case management and event processing. Complexity Medium: Organizations will have to review their policies and standards. Process wikis will have a lower impact but will bring operational savings through process improvement. and organizations will have to integrate business staff members into system design and configuration. Web 2. inc. Q3 2010” report by Clay Richardson. BPMN. © 2010. Inc. and BPEL for People lower adoption barriers because they improve business working with IT implementation. Forrester expects BPM tools to be the primary technology for generally applicable case management functionality until dynamic case management tools emerge as their own market in the 2013 time frame. Impact High business impact: Process mashups allow business leaders to automate processes that previously they couldn’t justify. Lower barriers to business involvement may reduce the need for low-cost offshore resources for application development and support.0 “process mashups” will empower savvy users to create quick end user interfaces to extend current BPM implementations and build “lightweight BPM” for processes that IT isn’t engaged in supporting. and Forrester’s December 28. BPM-oriented standards such as BPEL. reproduction Prohibited October 14. “Newness” Medium: BPM technologies are well established.0 technologies such as wikis for process documentation will enable frontline business managers to update knowledge about the processes they work with. BPM is a hot technology within business due to its focus on efficiency. “The Forrester Wave™: Business Process Management Suites.0-enabled Business process management (BPM) will gain new value as it becomes Web-2. High IT impact: IT staff members will have to undergo training to learn model-driven development. 2009. “Dynamic Case Management — An Old Idea Catches New Fire” report by Connie Moore and Craig Le Clair 56871 Source: Forrester Research. Forrester research. but few IT shops are familiar with them.) 7-2 BPM will be Web-2.0 extensions are very new. BPM standards are also established.

status. such as social-media-based customer service (and the text analytics needed to analyze social media information). As awareness of and responding to events in real time become increasingly typical business scenarios that IT must handle. Impact High business impact: Event processing has the potential for significant business impact. inc. 2009. Q3 2009” report by Mike Gualtieri and John R. October 14. eventbased platforms can operate on multiple payloads from different sources and respond with low latency. Complexity High: For most organizations. business rules. providing unprecedented capabilities for responding in real time to complex patterns of events. instrument readings. “Newness” Very high: While this area has been hovering as an area of interest for several years. ”Must You Choose Between Business Rules And Complex Event Processing Platforms?” report by Charles Brett and Mike Gualtieri 56871 Source: Forrester Research.) 7-3 Event-driven patterns demand attention Forrester has been publishing research on the X-Internet — what is currently being referred to as ”the Internet of things” — since 2001: Smart devices phone home or are polled for data about location. both the business scenarios and the IT solutions will require considerable analysis. Other trends that are feeding the real-time frenzy. contribute to interest in eventprocessing architectures that take rule processing to new heights. or CEP platforms and adapt event processing mindsets to their SOA environments. and Forrester’s January 21. logistics. While business rules can act on a single payload of data. architects and developers will have to take a hard look at the impact to their application architecture road maps. “The Forrester Wave™: Complex Event Processing (CEP) Platforms. it is only beginning to affect mainstream organizations. Access to information from smart devices as well as from traditional sources of data such as transactional financial applications — but in real time — has triggered a rising tide of interest in event processing systems for a variety of uses such as fraud detection. reproduction Prohibited . complexity and IT’s lack of experience in this area will somewhat limit progress. Further reading: Forrester’s August 4. or anything that can be digitized. 2010 © 2010. Rymer. 2009. High IT impact: Architects and developers will need to understand when to handle events with custom code. Inc. The resulting data deluge has helped drive interest in systems for situational awareness and for taking actions based on patterns of events. Forrester research. and law enforcement.18 The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch: 2011 To 2013 For Enterprise Architecture Professionals Figure 7 Key Technology Trends Driving Agile And Fit-To-Purpose Applications (cont.

2010. and Forrester’s July 22. now that many EA teams are regularly engaging the business with business architecture efforts. Utilization of vendors’ service offerings will spike. More apps sharing fewer servers (as well as other infrastructure resources) means better management is necessary to maintain service levels. It’s high time IT tooled up. Very high IT impact: IT must acquire and deploy comprehensive management tools. EAs need a repository for planning artifacts to enable the advanced analysis that will help them understand exactly where business impact is going to come from. © 2010. the bar for system management automation is being raised rapidly. we will see the average shop’s management tool set expand and expertise levels rise to meet these challenges. Forrester research. Virtualized infrastructure resources are now the rule rather than the exception. 2010 . 4: Smart Technology Management The time for the cobbler’s children to remain shoeless is over. inc. reproduction Prohibited October 14. most infrastructure and operations environments already have a handle on these. Additionally. Over the next three years. “Newness” Medium: System management and automated operations have been around as long as data centers have.The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch: 2011 To 2013 For Enterprise Architecture Professionals 19 Theme no. 2009. looking in particular at smart technology management technologies (see Figure 8). “The Future Of Configuration Management” report by Galen Schreck 56871 Source: Forrester Research. many architects will place system management automation tools high their list of must-have. And as savvy IT shops look to provide cloud-like ease of procurement of new resources and pay-as-you-use chargeback scenarios. high-impact technologies. but virtualization and potentially complex resource scheduling present new wrinkles. Inc. Impact Medium business impact: As IT’s management capabilities improve. Complexity Low: While some understanding of business workload requirements is necessary. this is really a matter of I&O gearing up. obtain training. businesses will see the same or improved service levels. Figure 8 Key Technology Trends Driving Smart Technology management 8-1 System management enables continued virtualization Virtualized infrastructure resources have quickly become the norm as organizations squeeze waste out of the IT budget. Further reading: Forrester’s December 9. “Put DCIM Into Your Automation Plans” report by Galen Schreck. and gain some experience in these tools before coming anywhere near mastery. and facing pressure to deliver cloud-like ease-ofdeployment internally.

as business architecture programs gain traction. “Anatomy Of A Portfolio Management Tool” report by Phil Murphy 56871 Source: Forrester Research. and IT’s adoption of ITIL. the potential for analysis tools to correlate and analyze such items as IT spend. and project management best practices is driving adoption of CMDB and PPM tools. EA Tools.20 The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch: 2011 To 2013 For Enterprise Architecture Professionals Figure 8 Key Technology Trends Driving Smart Technology management (cont. service management. “The Forrester Wave™: Business Process Analysis. Further reading: Forrester’s January 7. 2009. Still. “Newness” Medium: Planning tools are not new. Q1 2009” report by Henry Peyret. Meanwhile. and Forrester’s June 23. and business priorities will elevate this nice-to-have area of technology to a must-have. the tools require an increase in the kind of business/IT collaboration that has marked incipient business architecture efforts. In a trend Forrester calls the ”industrialization of IT. reproduction Prohibited . Inc. past surveys examining tool usage consistently show the most-used tool for many of these functions to be Microsoft Office.” the increasingly process-driven IT organization will employ tools to manage portfolios of assets. services. analysis and planning tools will be able to laserfocus IT resources where they will matter the most. 2010 © 2010. architects and business staff are using techniques such as capability mapping to link business goals and activities to their enabling IT components. skilled technical resources. And IT Planning. Impact Medium business impact: Planning tools will help convert input from business architects and analysts into execution strategies that will boost the right business capabilities at the right times. 2009. and configuration management. inc. while enterprise architecture tool suite vendors have added increasingly comprehensive repository and analysis capabilities to their offerings. applications. EA tool vendors have turned from piling on modeling functionality to providing analysis capabilities to drive IT planning. High IT impact: With detailed business information now available to finally enable the kind of business-driven architecture planning EA pundits have talked about for years. risk exposures.) 8-2 IT embraces planning and analysis tools to manage the future For several years. with heat maps and the promise of road mapping capabilities on the horizon. vendors have offered various planning and analysis tools targeting such areas as application portfolio management (APM). Forrester research. But IT is becoming more process-driven. and projects. but vendors are listening to IT customers and have turned from continually adding modeling functionality to adding analysis functions that directly address planners’ and architects’ needs in significantly improved ways. October 14. project portfolio management (PPM). Complexity Medium: To be effective. With this detailed insight into business needs. while using the latest generation of EA tools to analyze needs and options and plan the road ahead.

2010. reproduction Prohibited October 14. Forrester research. Complexity Medium: Client virtualization as a core strategy requires rethinking everything from end user device support to user segmentation to tiered service levels. Typical implementation plans target 2012. provides a solution for improving desktop and application availability both online and offline. Inc. Client virtualization has the ability to simplify the cost of managing and supporting end user environments while at the same time offering the ability to support a wider variety of end user devices. they paint a picture that will look quite familiar to savvy enterprise architects. Client virtualization. with the largest change being how widespread IT decides to utilize it. individual “highly empowered and resourceful operatives” — but Forrester’s authors don’t present a future characterized by over-the-top Technology Populism accompanied by a complete loss of central coordination and planning. including those the firm does not own. from userprovisioned laptops to netbooks and high-end smartphones such as iPhones. What’s missing for some EA teams that are struggling to keep up with developing strategic artifacts while continuing to contribute to tactical projects is the development of regular processes to assess emerging technology and support innovation. “Newness” Medium: Client virtualization technology is available today.) 8-3 Client virtualization is ubiquitous Client virtualization will continue to expand as an architecture for supporting user application workspaces. Architects can enable a consistent stream of business value by: © 2010. 2010 . and drivers include lowering costs and improving manageability and security. r E c O m m E n D AT i O n S EMPOWERED ORGAnizATiOnS ARE MORE ThAn ThE SuM OF ThEiR EMPOWERED PARTS Forrester’s book Empowered presents the benefits of enabling “HErOes” — that is. High IT impact: This will change desktop support practices and workloads. encompassing desktop and application virtualization technologies. Client virtualization can be used to improve application and data security by keeping applications and data within a data center instead of distributing them to the end user device. inc. “Predictions 2010: Client Virtualization” report by Benjamin Gray 56871 Source: Forrester Research. and availability of applications from any and all devices.The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch: 2011 To 2013 For Enterprise Architecture Professionals 21 Figure 8 Key Technology Trends Driving Smart Technology management (cont. it looks for base technologies that can support a broad array of business benefits and executes processes for cross-silo collaboration. These activities will map directly to the EA team in many organizations. Further reading: Forrester’s January 25. increased employee productivity. Enterprises are slowly moving from a “two-sizes-fit-all” scenario to a ”manysizes-fit-one” scenario in which the corporate desktop is not a specific machine.3 On the contrary. Impact Low business impact: Ubiquitous client virtualization’s primary impacts are increased security. The empowering iT organization enables innovation by maintaining a knowledge base of technologies that can have an impact on the business and by implementing a process for refreshing that knowledge base.

With the exception of those in organizations that maintain large central EA teams. 2010 © 2010. October 14. standards. SuPPLEMEnTAL MATERiAL Methodology Forrester fielded its August 2010 Global Technology Trends Online Survey to 65 IT professionals by posting the survey on our site and circulating it via Twitter. and guidelines. Forrester research. many architects have already learned the hard way that knee-jerk naysaying limits EA’s influence. providing architects with a much better opportunity to understand the business operating model and important business issues. most organizations don’t need one-size-fits-all standardization but rather a thoughtful understanding of when to restrict behavior and when flexibility can be beneficial.4 · understanding the business impact of policies. While standards are important and can in fact be critical to maintaining an organization’s agility. and risk mitigation. Establish formal processes for vetting ideas and shepherding new ideas through risk and opportunity assessment analyses and potentially forward to become pilots and implementation projects. reproduction Prohibited . EA’s recent forays into business architecture have set the stage for more-active collaboration between iT and the business. · Establishing forums for collaborative business-iT brainstorming. and encourage wiki-style contributions to emerging technology knowledge bases. risk. move these exchanges from data collection exercises to dynamic discussions of opportunities for technology-enabled innovation.22 The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch: 2011 To 2013 For Enterprise Architecture Professionals · Engaging the extended virtual architecture team. Execute processes for the regular vetting and analysis of this material. inc. Forrester fielded the survey in August 2010 and did not provide incentives to respondents. architects must make use of subject-matter experts (SmEs) wherever they find them. To standardize or not to standardize is a business decision — go beyond the standard advice of simply trying to speak about architecture in business terms: Think business thoughts about opportunity. cultivate an extended network of technology-savvy practitioners.

com/empowered). With a small change in focus and a collaborative approach. Rymer Ted Schadler Claire Schooley James Staten Ken Vollmer Doug Washburn Noel Yuhanna In 2009.The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch: 2011 To 2013 For Enterprise Architecture Professionals 23 Analysts interviewed For This Document William Band Ellen Daley Henry Dewing Boris Evelson Richard Fichera Benjamin Gray Mike Gualtieri Jeffrey S. Forrester began an annual series to supply input to this process by providing a technology scan of the most likely technologies to have an impact on business and IT organizations over the next three years. Empowered: Unleash your Employees. See the October 6. inc. “Establish Enterprise Architects As IT Innovation Champions” report. Forrester research. Energize your Customers. 2010 (http://www. 2010 2 3 4 © 2010. responsibilities. Transform your Business. reproduction Prohibited . information workers can now provision their own software tools. are fueling the next wave of IT adoption we’re calling Technology Populism.forrester. “The Top 15 Technology Trends EA Should Watch” report. Business leaders expect technology to help drive competitive differentiation. Individual people. architects have an opportunity to become their organization’s driving force for IT innovation. 2008. and social networks via the Web to support their jobs. yet only a small number of IT organizations have established a formal approach to innovation with clear roles. 2009. not IT organizations. ubiquitous broadband. See the February 22. and abundant collaboration and Social Computing tools. “Embrace The Risks And Rewards Of Technology Populism” report. Source: Josh Bernoff and Ted Schadler. though architects are uniquely qualified for the role. See the November 4. Harvard Business Review Press. 2008. October 14. information sources. Hammond Randy Heffner Liz Herbert Andrew Jaquith Rob Karel James G. Thanks to an advancing technology-native workforce. Kobielus Rob Koplowitz Craig Le Clair EnDnOTES 1 Diego Lo Giudice Phil Murphy Eveline Oehrlich Leslie Owens Jonathan Penn Henry Peyret Clay Richardson John R. and accountabilities. Even fewer are relying on their EA teams to lead innovation efforts.

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