INVESTMENT STRATEGY FOR NORTHERN IRELAND (ISNI 2) 2008 - 2018

MEASURE INVESTMENT PROPOSAL (MIP) FOR

1.2 PUBLIC TRANSPORT

COMPRISING

1.2.1 1.2.2 1.2.3 1.2.4

Greater Belfast Rapid Transit Rail Programme Bus Programme Other Public Transport Initiatives

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Section 1: The Context for Investment
The context for this measure is contained in the Regional Development Strategy (RDS) which was endorsed by the NI Assembly in 2002. This sets out a fresh approach to future transport requirements emphasising enhancing accessibility to enable people to get to goods, services and facilities but with as few negative impacts as possible. This means primarily giving more priority to public transport improvement, walking and cycling, to gradually change the travel culture, extend choice and reduce reliance on the car particularly for journeys to school and work in the Belfast Metropolitan Area and larger urban centres.

An integral feature of the RDS is the production of a Regional Transportation Strategy with the vision ‘to have a modern, sustainable, safe transportation system which benefits society, the economy and the environment and which actively contributes to social inclusion and everyone’s quality of life’.

The RDS suggests that to enable the north to create an integrated transportation system and catch up with and adopt the best transportation practice of other regions it will require the transportation strategy to: •

Contribute to economic activity in a sustainable way through the improved access to regional, national and international markets by efficient targeting and deployment of resources, particularly in key transport corridors;

Promote accessibility for all to jobs, services and facilities through improvement to transportation infrastructure and public transport services in particular enhancing social inclusion;

Further develop policies and measures to reduce the adverse environmental impact of transport and contribute to sustainable patterns of development and movement through support for the role of public transport, walking and cycling and more responsible use of the

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car; •

Improve safety for all travellers and promote walking and cycling and public transport as healthy forms of travel; and

Promote integration within and between different modes of travel, and between transportation policies and policies for land use, the environment, health, education, tourism and wealth creation.

Public transport (including rapid transport) is crucial to the delivery of the above objectives.

Currently the majority of public transport services in here are delivered under the “Translink” brand name by Ulsterbus Ltd, Citybus Ltd (operating as “Metro”) and Northern Ireland Railways Ltd. The companies are subsidiaries of the Northern Ireland Transport Holding Company (NITHC) a public corporation which is responsible to the Department for Regional Development for the operation and delivery of public transport services. NITHC is the seventh largest corporation here with over 4,000 employees and, in 2006/7 it handled 76.1 million passenger journeys. Its operations are subsidised by a mix of capital and revenue grants and government also funds concessionary fares and fuel duty rebate. For 2005/06 total government support amounted to £112.4 million (capital £60.1m; revenue £52.3m).

The then Minister David Cairns recently announced 22 August 2006 a revision of public transport structures here with the setting up of a Passenger Transport Authority (PTA). This will be responsible, from 2010/11 onwards, for specifying public transport provision and will contract with public transport providers for its delivery. The PTA will take on a number of functions currently residing in the Department and in the NITHC Group of companies.

Also included in this MIP, under other public transport initiatives, is the Rathlin Island ferry service. Rathlin Island is the north’s only inhabited offshore island and is located 6 miles from the coastal town of Ballycastle. The island has a

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resident population of 90 persons. Rathlin Island is a tourist attraction receiving 16,000 visitors in 2004.

The ferry service is a lifeline connection to the mainland for the resident islanders as well as being essential for tourism. The quality of the existing ferry fails to meet the expectations of many visitors with respect to shelter, design and layout. To maintain a high quality and safe service to the resident islanders and to continue to attract tourists’ investment is needed in the ferry service.

Historical profile of investment

Over the 5 years from 2002/03 to 2006/07 capital investment was made in support of bus and rail services provided by the Translink operating companies as follows:

2002/03 £m Bus Rail Total * = projected figure 7.7 44.3 52.0

2003/04 £m 5.7 20.5 26.2

2004/05 £m 8.1 46.5 54.6

2005/06 £m 21.5 36.1 57.6

2006/07 £m 21.1 * 14.6 35.7

This capital investment helped to facilitate the purchase of almost 550 new buses and 23 new train sets to replace old vehicles and trains. It also enabled the upgrade of 20 rail track miles and saw the construction of the new train care facility, the refurbishment of Central Station and various other improvements completed or currently underway at most stations and halts.

Comparison with UK regions & Ireland

Although different delivery mechanisms apply in GB it is still possible to extract important comparative and useful data. The table below is based on

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2005/06 figures. Less information is available from DfT Dublin sources but where this has been identified it has been incorporated.

Rail Services NI GB Ireland

Rail network km per 100 thousand people (GB & Ireland include electrified network) Passenger journeys per capita Per capita government funding (£)

20

36

47

5 34

18 78

9 75

Bus Services

Buses per 100 thousand people Bus km per capita Per capita government funding (£) * DfT Dublin figures exclude fuel duty rebate

81 36 28

138 68 36

43 51 26*

Sources: Translink, DfT London, DfT Dublin and annual reports and accounts.

The table above clearly indicates that: •

If rail service provision is expressed in terms of the length of the rail network NI has only 55% of the level in GB and 42% of the level in Ireland. This means that there is a much smaller rail network available to the population of NI relative to the populations of GB and Ireland.

Correspondingly per capita government funding is also significantly lower and is equivalent to 44% of the GB figure and 45% of Ireland. If NIR was subsidised to the same degree as GB based on network size then NI would have received a subsidy per capita of £43 (55% of £78) compared to the £34 received in 2005/06.

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Journeys per capita are 22% of the level in GB and 44% of the level in Ireland. Such low take up is influenced by the relatively small size of the network.

In terms of bus provision the north has more buses per 100,000 people than Ireland but less than GB.

The north has the lowest level of bus kilometres per capita and also the lowest level of subsidy (note DfT Dublin subsidy estimate excludes fuel duty rebate which accounts for almost 18% of total NI bus subsidy). While Ireland has relatively fewer buses they must be used more intensively.

While there is no historical profile for rapid transit the Belfast Metropolitan Transport Plan sets out transport schemes and proposals up to 2015 which will support development proposals within the Belfast Metropolitan Area Plan and together will provide an integrated approach to the future development of the Belfast Metropolitan Area.

The proposal to introduce rapid transit services is a major element of the delivery of a step change in the quality of public transport in the Belfast Metropolitan Area. It complements an increasing incidence of investment in public transport e.g. the procurement of new trains to enhance rail services and new buses to improve urban and interurban services provided by Translink after years of underinvestment.

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Availability of Rapid Transit Services across UK & ROI
Rank City Population Current Rapid Transit Rapid Transit under Consideration 1 London 7,172,091 Underground Docklands Light Rail Croydon Tramway etc Midland Metro Underground Street Car 4 Belfast Metropolitan area* Dublin 579,276 EWay CITI WWay Super route LUAS Extension METRO DART 6 7 Liverpool Leeds 469,017 443,247 Leeds BRT First Group FTR 8 9 Sheffield Edinburgh 439,866 430,082 Edinburgh Bus Rapid Transit 10 11 Bristol Manchester 420,556 394,269 Manchester Metrolink Metrolink extension Bus Rapid Transit Sprint Network Bradford Bus Rapid Transit Nottingham Express Transit Light rail Bus Rapid Transit Bus Rapid Transit Bus Rapid Transit Light Rail Bristol Bus Rapid Transit Sheffield Supertram Edinburgh Tram Mersey Tram Heavy rail Light rail Light rail Light/ Heavy rail Heavy rail Bus Rapid Transit Bus Rapid Transit Technology

2 3

Birmingham Glasgow

970,892 629,501

5

495,781

LUAS

Light Rail Heavy Rail Heavy Rail Light rail Bus Rapid Transit Bus Rapid Transit Light rail Light rail Bus Rapid Transit Bus Rapid Transit

12 13 14

Coventry Bradford Nottingham

303,475 293,717 249,584

*Belfast Metropolitan Area includes District council areas of Belfast, Castlereagh, Lisburn, Newtownabbey, Carrickfergus and North Down

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Fixed Infrastructure Assets

Details of NITHC asset valuations at 31 March 2006 are as follows:
Land & Buildings Investment Properties Permanent Way, Signalling & Bridges £M £M £M Vehicles Plant & Equipment £M £M Total

Cost

139

15

200

328

682

Depreciation

46

-

200

199

445

NBV

93

15

-

129

237

Rail

Main assets at April 2007 include: •

120.8 route miles of single (20.05 mothballed) and 86.2 route miles of double main line track comprising 185 sets of points;

61 level crossings (public road) and approx 200 User Worked Crossings;

• • •

16 railway stations, 40 halts (4 mothballed) and 123 platforms;

3 main depots at York Road, Fortwilliam and Adelaide;

4 maintenance and storage facilities at Portadown, Lisburn, Antrim and Ballymena;

Signalling infrastructure including equipment and fittings for 3 signal panels, 360 signals, Automatic Warning Systems (AWS), Train Protection Warning System (TPWS) and communications; and

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Structures assets include underline and overline bridges, earthworks and sea defences.

Rail Rolling Stock

NIR’s rail rolling stock fleet is as follows:

Description

Number

Class 3000 Class 450 Class 80 Ex Gatwick

3 car Diesel Multiple Unit 3 car Diesel Multiple Unit 4 car Diesel Multiple Unit Mk II locomotive Hauled coaches

23 9 3

8 14 3 2

De-Dietrich (Cross Border) Class 110 Class 201 (Cross Border)

Locomotive General Motors Locomotive General Motors Locomotive

In addition to this NIR has the following on-track infrastructure plant.

Ballast Regulator Tamper Compact Tamper Relay Gantry Relay Beam Flash Butt Welder On-Track Rail Threading Machine (PRD6) Vehicle Motor Traction Unit (VMT) Road Rail Excavators Assorted Flat Bed Wagons, Ballast Hoppers etc

2 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 2

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Bus

Main assets at April 2007 include: • • •

23 Bus Stations; 26 Bus Garages and Workshops; and 3 integrated bus / rail stations at Europa, Bangor and Coleraine.

There are also shared assets including: • • •

office locations; training facilities; and call centre.

Translink has a fleet of 1,445 buses split as follows:

Ulsterbus

Metro

Flexibus

Single Deck Buses Double Deck Buses Single Deck Goldline Coaches Double Deck Goldline coaches Minibuses Tours Coaches Tours Mini Coaches TOTAL

850 43 123 26 101 31 ___2 1,176

123 110 10 ___ 243

26 __ 26

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Section 2: Rationale for Investment
Economic nature of the investment

Public sector transport provision aims to address the problems of market failure that result in external costs being imposed by car users on other travellers and wider society. One of these externalities is pollution. Car users pollute but do not cover the cost of polluting since they only cover the cost of running their private vehicle. Therefore car users impose a negative externality on everyone else in the form of pollution. In effect the marginal social cost of car use is higher than the marginal private cost of car use, therefore government intervenes to try and reduce social cost into line with private cost. This means encouraging people to use public transport because relative pollution levels are lower. Translink bus and rail services and rapid transit services address the issue of pollution by transporting people at lower levels of pollution than private cars.

Public sector transport provision also addresses the externality of time delays imposed by private car users on other travellers. Limited road space results in congestion which in turn means longer journey times and longer journey times mean lost output to the economy. Translink bus and rail services and the rapid transit proposals address the issue of congestion by moving people to destinations in a more cost effective way than by private car.

In the draft Northern Ireland Regional Economic Strategy (January 2007) it is acknowledged that the local economy has experienced significant progress over the last decade. Employment has grown at an unprecedented pace and unemployment in the region is now amongst the lowest in the UK. However, the local economy still faces some significant challenges. Working age economic inactivity is higher than in any other part of the UK, innovation and entrepreneurial activity is comparatively low and our infrastructure needs upgrading. The growth potential of the local economy can be improved by increasing the employment rate and improving productivity by focussing on four key drivers one of which is Infrastructure and which can attract

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Government intervention through the implementation of the Investment Strategy for Northern Ireland.

Public transport and the persistent deficits on annual spending on capital investment in the public transport infrastructure is recognised as something ISNI can address and thus support the development aims of the existing Regional Transportation Strategy which is a vital component of the Regional Development Strategy. It acknowledges that the Comprehensive Spending Review can consider the scope for alternative or supplementary means of financing public transport infrastructure.

The draft Regional Economic Strategy also highlights the need to align itself with the Northern Ireland Sustainable Development Strategy and recognises that the north in achieving a strong and stable economy must ensure that it is a sustainable economy. In essence this means that the north must become more resource efficient both in its production and consumption. The north must also aim to accept its share of global responsibility for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases and an increased use of public transport can help to address this problem.

In essence the draft Regional Economic Strategy recognises: •

The importance of an efficient modern public transportation infrastructure. Inadequate public transport infrastructure can increase traffic congestion, reduce productivity, constrain markets and increase costs. This not only affects existing firms but also an area’s attractiveness as an investment location and general quality of life;

The role of public transport in the Sustainability strategy in ensuring that a better balance between economic, social and environmental progress is achieved.

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External Factors

A good public transport infrastructure is crucial to the promotion of competitiveness and sustainable development. It is critical that the workforce has access to a reliable and efficient means of public transport in order for the economy to function at its optimum level. A good public transport system also assists in the delivery of an environmentally sustainable economy. The growth in population and employment, in tandem with the environmental imperative to reduce carbon emissions, requires a major modal switch in passenger transport from private car to bus, rail and rapid transit. Current economic and demographic trends here highlight the imperative for significant levels of investment in public transport. A brief review of the principal economic and statistical indicators clearly shows that the issue of investment in public transport will be critical over the near future.

In 2005 the NI economy grew by 2% in real terms. DETI has provided Gross Value Added forecasts up to 2016 of 2.5% – 3% growth projections per annum, covering most of the ISNI 2 period. This compares to projected growth of 4% - 4.5% in Ireland. In the absence of any measure to manage traffic demand, traffic will increase in line with this economic growth resulting in congestion that will have significant adverse economic and environmental effects on NI. Investment in, and diversion of passengers to, bus, rail and rapid transit will be an important factor in keeping the NI economy free flowing and able to compete with the rest of the UK, Ireland and Europe.

The benefits of a free flowing economy are not solely delivered in urban areas. A good quality public transport system allows people to travel from rural areas to employment in urban areas. In addition good rural bus services alleviate the problem of social exclusion for low income rural households without access to a car.

We have been informed by officials from the Department of Transport in Dublin that one of the reasons they are investing so much in public transport is that reports on the transport infrastructure indicated that, if improvements were not made, investment from North America may be jeopardised. As the 13

north enters a critical phase of economic growth it is important that the level of investment in public transport infrastructure here does not become a constraint.

The population here increased by 4.3% between 1996 and 2006 to 1.7 million and will be over 1.8 million by 2021.

Most of the population growth is taking place in the urban hinterlands of Greater Belfast. This places additional pressure on the public transport system, the local economy and the environment because without investment the public transport commuters and workers face longer travelling times to get to work.

Average household size continues to fall, reaching 2.53 in 2006 and is forecast to be 2.34 by 2016. This pattern is consistent with the rest of the UK and Ireland. As household size falls, household numbers increase and car ownership correspondingly rises.

The north had 737,000 persons in employment at December 2006, an increase of 7.5% (51,000 persons) over a five year period. They need to travel to and from work in the shortest time possible with minimum congestion. Increasing future prosperity will lead to higher numbers of economically active people leading to increasing levels of congestion in urban areas unless appropriate levels of bus and rail alternatives are available.

Although car ownership per thousand of the population grew from 510 in 2001 to 581 per 1000 population in 2005 it is still substantially below the GB average of 634 per 1,000 of population. A high quality public transport system is required to compete with private car use during peak travel times for the benefit of the local economy and environment. It is also needed to offset the relatively low levels of car ownership here and to address issues of social inclusion by giving households without access to a car a suitable mode of transportation.

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Despite having lower levels of car ownership than in GB, the north has higher levels of commuters who use the car for home to work travel. Figures for 2004 show that 83% of all home to work journeys were by car. This compared to 81% in Wales, 71% in England and 69% in Scotland. It is also much higher than in Ireland where, according to the 2002 Census, 62% of people used their private car to get to work.

Demand for Investment

Translink’s Corporate Plan projects demand for rail services to increase by 5.6% from 2007/08 to 2009/10. In February 2007 a demand projections report, commissioned by DRD and delivered by Booz Allen Hamilton consultancy group, indicated that, with service enhancements to the rail network, rail demand would grow by a further 22% by 2017/18.

Recent investment in the Citybus fleet and its re-launch as Metro in February 2005 resulted in an increase of 14% in passenger numbers in the two years to the end of 2006/07. The Metro service runs at capacity during morning and evening peak times and a Metro phase 2 project has been approved. This will introduce 25 additional buses on three routes to increase frequencies and on the basis of success, measured by increased passenger numbers, a further 33 additional buses will be introduced on other routes.

In the two years to 2006/07 Goldline passenger numbers increased by almost 7%. While overall Ulsterbus passenger journeys are projected to fall by 1.4% to 2009/10 this decline is marginal and continued investment is required to maintain a modern fleet that both attracts people away from peak time car use and delivers an attractive high quality public transport alternative to households in rural areas without access to cars.

Overall there is a significant level of potential demand for public transport services here as evidenced by the lower use of these services compared to GB and the rest of Ireland. It is essential to maintain and expand these services in order to secure the benefits of lower congestion; quicker journey

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times in urban areas; lower levels of pollution; and increased social inclusion for those dependent on public transport.

Alternative Ways of Meeting Demand

The Department recently took forward, in conjunction with DFP and SIB, an option appraisal for train services here. In determining passenger demand this included the assumption that planned investment in roads would go ahead. The appraisal considered options for enhancing existing rail services and also for truncating the network. On that basis, the preferred way forward for rail is as follows:

retain the whole of the existing network; to replace existing life expired trains by 2012; to enhance services for the greater Belfast area; to enhance services on the Derry line; and to enhance services on the Dublin line in terms of service frequency.

Further information is provided in section 3.

The Department also undertakes annual benchmarking of Translink’s performance against public transport providers elsewhere in GB. The results of this exercise are used to set value for money targets and these have been incorporated within the projections for additional buses.

The concept of rapid transit for Belfast complements the increasing investment in public transport generally and provides an opportunity to significantly enhance transport services which will positively impact on a number of cross cutting policies: •

The proposed route from Dundonald will progress through socially deprived areas at Tullycarnet and Inner East which are subject to DSD’s Neighbourhood renewal initiatives;

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For people who don’t own cars it will improve access to employment, health, education and social needs and have a positive impact on the Government’s anti poverty, social exclusion and sustainability strategies;

For the Titanic Quarter route it will act as a incentive for outward and inward investment initiatives from Invest NI and DETI;

Both routes will positively impact on DSD public realm work ongoing within Belfast;

Promote a 21st century image of Belfast for tourism /business reasons;

Improve environmental perspective on tackling traffic congestion, lowering emissions;

To help change travel culture from the car to public transport with benefits on reducing traffic congestion and road safety; and

Cross party political support.

Alignment with DSOs & PSAs

One of the Departments Ministerial Priorities is delivering a modern Public Transport System - The framework provided by the Regional Transportation Strategy 2002-2012 (RTS) will also help deliver a more modern public transport system, better able to respond to changing economic and social conditions and to support the Government’s commitment to sustainable development.

Further investment in Translink will facilitate further development of the Metro service and help reduce the age of the Ulsterbus fleet. A decision has been taken, by Minister, on the size and level of future rail services in the region.

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DRD will also examine the feasibility of potential Rapid Transit pilot routes in the Belfast Metropolitan Area.

Flowing from this is the Departmental Strategic Objective (DSO) 2 to maintain and develop a safe and effective transportation network and deliver high quality public transport services. Key public transport indicators are:

Further passenger growth and modal change towards Public Transport; Improved public transport services and infrastructure; and Develop and implement new public transport structures by April 2010.

The Department’s related Public Service Agreement (PSA) 2 is to have a modern, sustainable, safe transportation system which benefits society, the economy, and the environment and which actively contributes to social inclusion and everyone’s quality of life. Key public transport indicators are:

Reduce journey times on the Key Transport Corridors; Further passenger growth and modal change towards Public Transport; and Mid-term review of the Regional Transportation Strategy.

Relationship between bus and rail investment

A key aim of the Regional Transport Strategy (RTS) is to secure a level of public transport provision which acts as an attractive alternative to the private car and encourages people to choose a mode of transport that will help reduce congestion and be more environmentally friendly. In order to fully address the different needs and demands of different sections of society it is important to provide as wide a choice of bus, rail and rapid transit options as possible. It is also important to recognise that the overall level of public transport provision and usage here is less than in either GB or Ireland and that there is unmet demand for both bus and rail services.

Recent experience here has indicated that investment in rail does not come at the expense of reduced bus travel and vice versa. Taking Belfast as an 18

example the positive, and mutually beneficial, benefits from investing in both bus and rail can be highlighted by reviewing the recent investment in both areas.

Since the launch of Metro, in February 2005, passenger journeys have increased by 14% 1 to the end of 2006/07. The growth in Metro users can be attributed to the combined efforts of Translink and DRD. As a consequence of the investment priorities outlined in the RTS, DRD has provided funding to allow significant capital spending on a much improved bus fleet for the greater Belfast area. This has been combined with Roads Service co-operation in providing Quality Bus Corridors (QBC) and bus priority schemes.

The investment in new buses in recent years has allowed Translink to deliver a more attractive urban bus service in terms of a more modern fleet (average fleet age is now 6 years compared with 9.8 in 2002/03 and the accessibility rate is 96% compared with 48% in 2002/03) and improved operational performance resulting in higher passenger journeys and higher levels of passenger satisfaction (72% compared with 64% in 2002/03).

In addition to this increase in bus usage recent DRD investment in new trains has also helped to generate increased passenger journeys on the core network of lines which service the Belfast area. Since new trains have been deployed on the Bangor and Portadown lines passenger journeys have increased by 29% on both lines between 2004/05 and 2006/07. On the Larne line, which still generally uses old trains, demand fell by 6% over the same period (however some catch up is underway after line closure for track relay in 2005/06). Such passenger journey increases highlight the attraction to passengers of the faster journeys, increased frequencies and greater comfort that new trains bring.

It is clear from the above analysis of recent developments in public transport that investment in bus does not come at the expense of reduced rail travel or vice versa. Recent investment in rail and bus in Belfast has resulted in

1

Adjusted for the re-branding of some previously Ulsterbus routes to Metro

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increased passenger journeys on both modes of transport. The current position is that Metro is working at capacity at peak times and the Bangor and Portadown rail lines are also close to capacity without any sign of demand falling. To restrain bus and rail capacity at the existing level is therefore not a good option as this capacity will soon be breached and demand will transfer to private car. Additional investment is required in bus, rail and rapid transit if Belfast is not to suffer from increased levels of congestion which will have a negative impact on the city as a dynamic economy with goods, services and labour flowing freely.

The above observations and recommendations regarding Belfast are consistent with the findings and recommendations of the Eddington report which indicated that investment in bus and rail services in urban areas is essential to avoid levels of congestion that threaten the economic performance of cities in the UK.

It is not only Belfast that has benefited from recent investment in bus and rail. Passengers on the Derry line have also enjoyed the benefit of the new trains. This has resulted in an increase in passenger journeys of 20% between 2004/05 and 2006/07. The main type of bus alternative against the Derry rail line would come from the Ulsterbus Goldline inter city service which has also benefited from the recent investment in bus services. Between 2005/06 and 2006/07 Goldline passenger journeys increased by over 5%. This again indicates that investment in both bus and rail brings benefits to both modes in the form of increased passenger journeys and that there is not a mutually exclusive relationship.

While the introduction of new trains on the Derry line brought about increased punctuality further investment would bring about increased frequency and allow the introduction of a timetable that would deliver trains into both Derry and Coleraine at times that would suit commuters (currently the early train into Derry arrives too late for people commuting to work). Such investment would attract many additional passengers away from car use to the benefit of reduced congestion in Derry.

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It is widely reflected in the public transport investment strategies of GB and Ireland that investment in both bus and rail services is essential if sufficient numbers of journeys are to be attracted from private car use to public transport. This is an important principle which underpinned the RTS and which has also been incorporated within this proposal.

Main EU policy drivers and Linkages

The European Commission has advocated intermodal transport solutions in its White paper ‘European transport policy for 2010: time to decide’. Such transport networks should allow for seamless intermodal passenger transportation to provide attractive alternatives to ‘car only’ travel. In this respect intermodal travel chains may comprise all transport modes including walking, public transport, cycling and car use. An efficient organisation of intermodal travel would reduce the reliance on the private car and allow for the use of more environmentally friendly modes to the benefit of all European citizens and the environment.

The Commission recognises that European cities increasingly face problems caused by transport and traffic. It acknowledges that the question is how to enhance mobility while at the same time reducing congestion, accidents and pollution. It also acknowledges the difficult situation in that transport systems must respond to the multiple mobility requests of European citizens so as to provide the freedom to travel necessary for social and economic development but equally realise that transport is a major consumer of non renewal finite fuels and is negatively affecting citizens’ health, the economy and cause climate change.

Risks associated with failure to invest

If new buses and trains cannot be procured, and the associated infrastructure maintained and improved, Translink will be forced to operate with aged and increasingly unreliable assets until they are operationally unfit for use. It will very soon become evident that comfort, reliability and safety have been compromised to the detriment of staff, customers and the general public. 21

DSO and PSA objectives will be missed and a failure to comply with safety and environmental legislation will be obvious as congestion levels increase leading to longer journey times and a less free flowing local economy. There will be reduced support to economic growth, especially from foreign investment, and failure to provide for social inclusion. Costs of future retrieval to the existing network size will be significantly higher if essential planned maintenance opportunities are missed.

If the rapid transit bid were not to proceed it would have the following adverse impacts: •

Belfast would increasingly suffer from increasing traffic congestion from private car use which would adversely impact on business efficiency and future investment;

Public transport would continue to be perceived as a secondary choice for meeting travel needs;

The opportunity to influence social change in a number of deprived areas would be lost;

• •

Failure to realise the transport vision contained in the RDS and RTS; Poor reflection of Belfast as a 21st century city

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Section 3: Description of Programmes
Details of funding proposed under this measure are set out below allocated across the various programmes.

CAPITAL
All capital figures in 2008 prices (£) First three years: Programme Greater Belfast Rapid Transit Rail Programme – baseline (existing service with life expired trains replaced) plus core, Derry and Dublin line enhancements Bus Programme Rathlin Island passenger ferry Rathlin Island roll on roll off ferry TOTAL (for this Measure) 102m 1.2m 6.3m 426.5m 140m 0 0 635m 242m 1.2m 6.3m 1,061.5 232m 346m 578m 2008 - 2011 85m Following seven years: 2011-2018 149m 234m Total

REVENUE
All revenue figures in 2008 prices (£) First three years: Programme Greater Belfast Rapid Transit Rail Programme – baseline (existing service with life expired trains replaced) plus core, Derry and Dublin line enhancements Bus Programme Rathlin Island passenger ferry Rathlin Island roll on roll off ferry TOTAL (for this Measure) 0 1.0m 0.5m 5.1m 0 0 0 40.5m 0 1.0m 0.5m 45.6m 0 32.1m 32.1m 2008 - 2011 3.6m Following seven years: 2011-2018 8.4m 12.0m Total

Descriptions of each programme are provided below:

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Greater Belfast Rapid Transit

The Belfast Metropolitan Transport Plan envisaged a network of rapid transit routes across Belfast. Earlier assessments of the different technology options concluded that bus rapid transit would be by far the most cost effective and operationally flexible system for implementation in the context of the Belfast Metropolitan Area. It suggested that the pilot stage utilising the Newtownards corridor could be implemented subject to economic appraisal, budgetary processes and the completion of statutory processes. DRD consequently commissioned transport consultants to undertake feasibility studies on both EWay serving the Newtownards corridor and in light of the significant development within Titanic Quarter a CITI route linking the city centre to Titanic Quarter, Belfast City airport and the new retail development within the Harbour estate.

Rapid transit will integrate with existing transport infrastructure and complement public transport services particularly in relation to Titanic Quarter which currently has no public transport provision. The rapid transit network is likely to be segregated along significant portions of the routes. The Commission for Integrated Transport indicated evidence of patronage transfer from the car to bus based rapid transit coupled with bus priority measures of between 3% -10%. This could be further enhanced if the associated infrastructure was comparable to light rail. Therefore it is intended that rapid transit will include off vehicle ticketing, real time information systems and level entry into vehicles from stops (similar to LUAS in Dublin), It is anticipated that there would be improved journey times compared to traditional travel options.

The terms of reference provided to the consultants allow them to consider afresh the technology and route options and present a business plan that will allow the project to advance to a more detailed design and implementation stage. The capital figures provided are based on those outlined in the Belfast Metropolitan Transport Plan for a bus based system uprated to 2008. Dependent on the outcome of the feasibility studies which are considering the whole range of technology options including light rail this may result in the 24

need to make adjustment to the bid figures. Dependent on the outcome of the current feasibility studies this bid will allow the Department to initiate the design and build stage of the project. There is further consideration presently being given to extending the routes to Queen’s University Belfast, the Royal Victoria Hospital and beyond into West Belfast. This may result in a further consequent adjustment to the bid figures. The consultants are due to report towards the end of Summer 2007 but this may be extended if the routes are lengthened. The ISNI2 bid includes a proportion for revenue purposes as the Department recognises that to progress the introduction of rapid transit services for Belfast will require a significant commitment and the need to establish a dedicated team to project manage the scheme.

Rail Programme

The Department for Regional Development (DRD) Regional Transportation Strategy (RTS) for Northern Ireland 2002 – 2012 sets out inter alia the following two targets for rail:

All current trains to be replaced by new trains – with the exception of Enterprise services;

Retain services north of Whitehead and north-west of Ballymena – subject to successful results from the introduction of new trains and infrastructure on the rest of the network early in the period to 2012.

As the final stage in the delivery of these targets the Department has set up a Steering Group to oversee an evaluation of investment to date and to appraise options for future investment. While NIR has brought 23 new Class 3000 trains into service (the final unit entering operational service in September 2005) it still has a significant level of old rolling stock. A total of 13 Class 450, ex-Gatwick and Class 80 trains will be life expired between 2010 and 2012. Given the time required to produce and take delivery of new train sets the process of identifying suitable options for replacement has begun with this project.

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Railways comprise a substantial asset for a region connecting people with jobs and providing accessibility for communities and services. In addition they represent a key means of reducing harmful emissions from transport compared to travel by road. Elsewhere the strategic importance of railways is being recognised with additional investment. In Scotland the Scottish Executive has published a plan for the next 20 years which is designed to ensure that Scotland’s railway network continues to improve. The plan involves enhancing the existing rail infrastructure and delivering a programme of major projects together with ongoing replacement of rolling stock. In Ireland the Government has embarked upon a major Transport initiative ‘Transport 21’ costing some €34 bn over the period 2006 to 2015. The programme has a heavy emphasis on railway projects with these estimated to cost some €16 bn. While the majority of this will be aimed at the greater Dublin area there are also substantial amounts for the railway outside Dublin including the construction of the Western Rail Corridor. Transport 21 builds upon considerable recent investment in the railway network. Passenger numbers have increased substantially as a result and in 2004-05 Iarnrod Eireann carried nearly 38 million passengers, making it the fastest growing railway network in Europe.

Consequently the appraisal also considered options to enhance existing services taking account of developments since 2002 when the RTS was published i.e. increasing car ownership and congestion levels, increasing rail patronage and increasing concern over the environmental impacts of transport.

The appraisal incorporates a Business Development Analysis carried out by Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH). This analysed projected demand derived from an elasticity based demand model developed by BAH using elasticity values with respect to economic growth, primary service attributes (e.g. timetable changes, trip generation), secondary service attributes (the impact of new trains, increased frequencies, increased capacity) and stimulated and diverted demand (modal shift).

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The appraisal has evaluated a number of options some of which rank higher than others in terms of NPV. It is recognised that affordability is also a key issue and for the purposes of this ISNI2 submission and we have quantified the costs associated with the following requirements:

retain the whole of the existing network and replace existing life expired trains by 2012 – the base case – this requires the purchase of 13 replacement diesel multiple units (DMUs) with the expectation that passenger journeys will increase by 2.3 million over the 2006/07 level to 10.9 million by 2019/20;

to enhance services for the greater Belfast area - this requires the purchase of an additional 5 DMUs over the base case to increase capacity (i.e. longer trains) on the core lines with an expected increase of 1 million passenger journeys over the base case by 2019/20;

to enhance services on the Derry line – this requires the purchase of an additional 2 DMUs over the base case to provide an hourly frequency on the line with an expected increase of 195 thousand passenger journeys over the base case by 2019/20, and

to enhance services on the Dublin line in terms of service frequency – this requires the purchase of an additional 4 DMUs over the base case to provide an hourly service on the line with an expected increase of 26 thousand passenger journeys over the base case by 2019/20.

The inclusion of the Dublin enhancement is consistent with the importance attached to the rail connection between Belfast and Dublin even though the economic appraisal concluded that it would not deliver any incremental benefits compared to the base case. Future work will look at measures to reduce journey time on the line which, in due course, when combined with greater frequency of service, could deliver benefits on the line. Further work can be undertaken to explore the case for such a development. The capital and revenue requirements of the rail programme are broken down across the following projects: 27

CAPITAL
All capital figures in 2008 prices (£) First three years: Programme Rail Programme – baseline – existing service with life expired trains replaced Rail Programme – core enhancement Rail Programme – Derry line enhancement Rail Programme - Dublin frequency enhancement (this will not increase train speed) Total 232m 346m 578m 12m 14m 26m 17m 5m 13m 30m 30m 35m 2008 - 2011 198m Following seven years: 2011-2018 289m 487m Total

REVENUE
All revenue figures in 2008 prices (£) First three years: Programme Rail Programme – baseline – existing service with life expired trains replaced Rail Programme – core enhancement Rail Programme – Derry line enhancement Rail Programme - Dublin frequency enhancement (this will not increase train speed) Total 0 32.1m 32.1m 0 27m 27.2m 0 0 4m 1.1m 4.3m 1.1m 2008 - 2011 0 Following seven years: 2011-2018 0 0 Total

Bus Programme

The case relating to the bus programme (1.2.3) assumes that the current practice of providing for replacement of the fleet in pursuit of RTS fleet and vehicle age targets will continue. The forward programme comprises:

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All Capital Figures in 2008 Prices (£) Programme First three years: 2008 - 2011 Following seven years: 2011 – 2018 Total

Bus Maintenance Depots Bus Passenger Facilities Bus Purchase Fleet Replacement Bus Purchase QBC Other Bus Capital

24m 13m 46m 5m 14m

15m 14m 81m 30m

39m 28m 127m 5m 43m

Total (for this Measure)

102m

140m

242m

Within the infrastructure component, the focus shifts from bus stations to bus engineering facilities and engineering workshops. Modification of stations will however be required to accommodate new low floor bus design and possible centre door location buses.

The continuing programme of fleet renewal which, by 2013, will ensure an average fleet age of not more than 8 years must also be maintained through to 2018 and beyond to ensure that the gains made are not lost towards the end of the investment strategy period.

The proposed investment also covers the roll-out of a two stage project, part one of which is already approved, involving the purchase of 25 additional double deck buses to increase frequencies on the quality bus corridors forming the core Metro routes in Belfast.

Other capital expenditure is needed within the bus sector for general works including: IT renewal and enhancement; office refurbishment; and

replacement of engineering equipment to ensure the ongoing efficiency and safety of operations. Illustratively, firm estimates for £7m for IT requirements have been prepared for years 1 and 2 of the ISNI period. These relate to a Bus Information System, a Corporate Asset Management system and equipping buses with on board computers. In the longer term it would cover a Ticketing System, an Integrated Financial Accounting System and further investment in Corporate Asset Management controls. Failure to invest in IT

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will adversely impact on the ability to produce management information efficiently and will impair the quality of services provided. Similar arguments can be developed over the other investment areas. Collectively these investment requirements have been quantified at over £43m over the 10 year period to 2018.

Other Public Transport Initiatives

The Department has responsibility for providing a ferry to Rathlin Island, the north’s only inhabited offshore island. The current vessel offers a roll-on rolloff (RORO) service but is nearing the end of its useful working life. The operator Caledonian MacBrayne (Calmac) is wholly owned by the Scottish Executive and may not be permitted by its parent Department to operate outside of the Scottish undertaking for much longer. Purchase of the existing vessel (even if it was made available) does not offer a long term solution and efforts to identify other suitable vessels have thus far failed. The current proposal targets specific objectives for the service reflecting DSO 3 ‘to maintain and develop a safe transportation network’, viz: • • • To maintain a 'life-line' service to Rathlin Island;

To offer a contract term for the service of 6 years; and,

To ensure that the maximum annual amount of subsidy to be made available for the support of the service is based on the most economically advantageous tender.

and envisages the acquisition of a passenger vessel as an interim measure until a new purpose built vessel can be procured. Passenger Ferry

The first phase is to acquire a passenger only vessel to supplement the existing roll on roll off Rathlin ferry. This will result in increased passenger carrying capacity to meet the burgeoning seasonal demand from tourists to

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travel to the island. Increased tourism will generate economic benefits to the island as a whole increasing the capacity for paid employment. This will necessitate a higher level of subsidy for crew and running costs estimated at £250,000 per year. However, fares income will increase by around £12,000, in total, during the summer months of July and August - figure is based on recent fares trends plus an expected 4% increase in passenger traffic due to enhanced carrying capacity and improved level of comfort on a purpose built passenger vessel.

Roll on Roll off Ferry for Rathlin Island

The second phase involves procurement of a replacement (RoRo) ferry to facilitate a consistent level of freight to be carried to the island throughout the year. Freight carriage is currently restricted in summer months to accommodate higher passenger demand. The current passenger capacity is limited to 27 plus two cars (or one lorry) in winter and 125 passengers with no vehicles in summer. The current vessel is nearing the end of its working life and is providing a very basic service. To ensure continuation of service, investment in a new vessel is required in the near future. A lead-in time of 2-3 years is anticipated in acquiring a purpose built vessel, and commitment of the necessary finances must be made ahead of undertaking procurement action.

Once the new RoRo vessel is fully operational, scope may exist to dispose of the passenger vessel, generating a cash return to the service.

Unavoidable Elements – Expenditure Already Committed

Contracts have already been awarded for the £17m combined New Rail Vision and DDA projects, approval is awaited for the £12m track life extension project (Ballymena to Coleraine); tenders have issued for Project Management services for the Knockmore / Lurgan relay and tenders for a new railway station at Newry are due to be issued shortly. Contracts have also been awarded for most of the bus replacements planned through 2008/09. 31

Revenue consequences

The 2010 new trains project has examined ongoing revenue and cost streams. The cost streams will be partly covered by passenger revenue and partly covered by an increase of £480k per annum in the Public Service Obligation.

Benefits Risks & Interdependencies

These have been discussed at earlier sections of this MIP. In short, failure to invest will result in a marked reduction in reliability and failure to achieve the DSO to improve public transport services. Incremental losses in operating efficiency will impact on the way in which Translink can deliver public transport services, making public transport a much less attractive option. This will have an adverse effect on environment, economy and integration/social inclusion. Without the proposed investment the following problems will arise: •

Without a good public transport infrastructure road congestion will increase resulting in longer journey times and consequently the loss of a free flowing economy with respect to labour mobility, access to services and the movement of goods;

Without a free flowing economy the north would not be an attractive place for foreign investment;

A good public transport system is essential for the development of tourism;

A good public transport system contributes to social cohesion by linking local sub-regions;

A good public transport system contributes to social inclusion by providing access to goods and service to people in rural areas and people in urban areas who do not have access to private cars; and

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A good public transport system helps address the problem of sustainability and carbon emissions by reducing the average level of pollution associated with each journey undertaken.

Impacts of Investment

Investment will deliver a reliable, safe, affordable and environmentally sustainable public transport system that will continue to attract even greater support from the travelling public. Services will be increased and journey times reduced to make public transport the preferred choice for a significant number of people. Wider economic benefits will be delivered including economic regeneration; the creation and sustainability of employment through the availability of labour for business and commerce; improved cross border links and the attraction and development of tourism. Improved integration for persons living in rural or isolated communities will result from enhanced access to rail travel.

New trains and buses, and associated public transport infrastructure, will lead directly to improved availability, choice and accessibility for passengers.

Ensuring Cost Effectiveness

Proposed service levels are assessed at economic appraisal stage thus ensuring that the appropriate level of service is provided in line with the overall objectives in the RTS. All investment plans are subject to the application of the Green Book requirements. Thereafter approval to proceed from the Department for Regional Development (in all cases) and from the Department of Finance & Personnel (for proposed expenditure in excess of £1m) is required.

Alternatives for Delivery

Plans are under development to bring forward a Passenger Transport Authority and Public Transport Executive to oversee the delivery of public 33

transport services in NI. This will extend to the introduction of private sector operators to the delivery of these services.

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Section 4: Delivery Mechanisms
Arrangements are in place to ensure accountability and delivery on time and to budget.

Rail and bus projects are managed by Translink in accordance with the Infrastructure Manual of Project Management Procedures, compatible with both Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK) of the Project Management Institute (PMI) and Association of Project Management (APM) organisations and with PRINCE2 methodology. The process is based on a Gateway Process with review points at end of: Inception; Feasibility; Appraisal; Design; Procurement; Implementation / Construction (Handover); & Operation and Maintenance (Closure).

Each project is sponsored by a member of the Executive team (Project Sponsor) and a Senior Responsible Manager (SRM) is responsible for the delivery of the project. The SRM (normally department head) reports to the Project Sponsor or Project Director. Each project has a dedicated project manager independent from the design team. See following graphic of the organisation structure.

NITHC Board

Executive Group

Project Director / Sponsor

Finance Director

Project Control Manager

Project Control Manager

Head of Financial Planning

Project Manager

Planning Engineer

Contracts Engineer

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The Project Control department is responsible for coordinating programme planning and ensuring projects are managed in accordance with the Procedures. The Project Control Manager is supported by a Planning Engineer and Contracts Engineer in coordinating programme development and monitoring and tracking progress and compliance of projects within the overall programme. Project progress/performance is reported on a monthly basis and performance on ‘cost’, ‘quality’ and ‘programme’ are measured using a traffic light parameters system.

Programme Estimated Completion Date within Base Line Programme

Quality Quality Plan complied with and; No significant changes to approved Project Scope

Cost Estimated Final Cost of project not exceeding 90% of Letter of Offer (inc Optimism Bias)

Estimated Completion Date within 10% Extension of Base Line Programme

Quality Plan complied with but; Some significant changes to approved Project Scope without compromising Client Requirements

Estimated Final Cost of project between 90% and 100% of Letter of Offer (inc Optimism Bias), or Individual Contracts exceeded up to 10%

Estimated Completion Date exceeding 10% Extension of Base Line Programme or missing critical Handover date

Quality Plan modified or Some significant changes to approved Project Scope compromising Client Requirements

Estimated Final Cost of project exceeding 100% of Letter of Offer (inc Optimism Bias) or individual Contracts exceeded in excess of 10%

A KPI has been established to measure performance in delivery of the overall programme. Progress is also tracked on a Master Programme against the base line (approved Corporate Plan) programme using a Milestone Achievement graph. Budget expenditure is also tracked on a monthly basis for value of work done and amount certified.

The Project Control manager liaises closely with the Head of Financial Planning in this process.

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Resources and skills to deliver the investment bid

Additional project management resources have been recruited and a number of larger projects have been identified as suitable for management using external project management resources. A procurement strategy is developed for each project and New Engineering Contract 3rd Edition (NEC3) is now being used for most engineering contracts including professional services and frameworks. Select lists have been drawn up within each work discipline including contractors specialising in: Permanent Way; Signalling; & Structures, etc. For large projects a separate select list may be prepared with advertisements placed in Official Journal of the European Community (OJEC). The train procurement strategy is design and build.

In addition to the internal controls referred to above Public Transport Performance Division (PTPD) ensures the following external procedures are adhered to in relation to how the DRD monitors investments (these procedures will also apply to the proposed rapid transit system investment and Rathlin ferry investments, however, it is not clear at present where responsibility for monitoring will lie): •

Economic appraisal are completed and assessed by in-house DRD economists;

Letters of offer are issued by PTPD that tie expenditure to specific conditions;

• • • •

PTPD is represented on the project management board;

Expenditure against budgets is monitored;

Monthly monitoring meetings are held;

Accountability meetings are held; and

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Project benefit evaluations and project monitoring evaluations are completed.

Gateway Review

As mentioned above, the Gateway Review process is central to the Infrastructure Project Management Procedures. It is applied to all projects at Inception, Appraisal (Feasibility) Design and Procurement and Project Handover and Project Closure. The level of detail is dependent on risk. For large projects scope exists to bring together a Gateway Review panel which may involve a representative of the Department.

In relation to rapid transit as outlined in section 3 the Department has commissioned transport consultants to undertake feasibility studies and present an outline business case. This will include addressing the issue of determining a preferred route, technology, estimated costs, key risks, any possible mitigation and an assessment of the funding options.

There are a number of options on how the proposals could be delivered including variables on the Design, Finance, Build and Operate models, PPP and PFI arrangements. Experience elsewhere suggests that public money will still be required as a core component but existing Department for Transport guidance requires authorities to assess the potential suitability of each scheme for funding in whole or in part through the Private Finance Initiative. Article 40 of the Planning (Northern Ireland) Order 1991 allows the Department to enter into an agreement with any person who has an estate in land for the purpose of facilitating , regulating or restricting the development of use of the land. Essentially a condition of planning permission may be made that requires a developer to contribute to or provide gain to any planning proposal. The ongoing feasibility studies will address this aspect.

The bid for rapid transit has presently been constructed to include for the moment the total cost of the proposal excluding developer contributions and will be subsequently adjusted once the outcome of the studies is known.

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Sustainable Development Champion

Within Translink, the Infrastructure Executive is responsible for championing the Achieving Excellence and Sustainability and monitoring relevant, measurable sustainability objectives and targets, and report progress regularly.

Centre of Procurement Excellence (COPE)

Procurement for bus and rail is the role of the Purchasing Department of Translink which has achieved COPE accreditation. In achieving COPE accreditation, Translink has ensured that contractors include employability measures.

For rapid transit procurement will be undertaken by either Translink or Central Procurement Directorate.

A Management Statement and Financial Memorandum (MSFM) is in place between the DRD and NITHC/Translink. This incorporates best practice on governance arrangements between a Department and its sponsored bodies and sets out the arrangements for grant funding and audit and accountability requirements.

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Section 5: Contribution to the three ISNI cross cutting strategic objectives

Objective A: to facilitate rising prosperity through investment in infrastructure that will support strong economic growth, more employment and higher value added jobs, and improved economic competitiveness across the Region.

Public transport is an essential requirement for a vibrant economy. For many cities public transport is the only method they have for accessing schools, colleges and places of work. As the economy grows and more people are able to afford cars, a good quality, attractive public transport system is essential to attract people away from private transport and therefore ease congestion. The programme for investment falls under two categories: • •

Renewal – without this public transport will become more unreliable and, in some cases, stop altogether; and Enhancement – this will make public transport more attractive and accessible for all.

The Regional Transportation Strategy states:

The increased standard of the RSTN in terms of the retention of the existing rail network and the enhancement of and addition to bus services and facilities would also offer benefits in terms of facilitating the movement of people and goods, attracting inward investment and increasing attractiveness to visitors, including business travellers and tourists.

The proposed strategy would also support the improvement of employment prospects for communities in regeneration areas due to improved and additional transport provision and links.

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Objective B: to facilitate greater social inclusion and cohesion from investment in infrastructure that will promote equality of opportunity and good relations, reflect the objectives of A Shared Future, target areas of deprivation and social need, and achieve appropriate spatial balance across the Region.

Currently the proportion of passengers in socio economic groups is as follows:

ABC1 Ulsterbus Metro NIR 39% 40% 50%

C2DE 53% 45% 31%

Refused 8% 15% 19%

Public transport here targets social need. For many citizens it is the only method of accessing areas of economic opportunity. Translink is available to and is accessed by all citizens regardless of their section 75 category. The programme will have zero impact on race, marital status, religious belief, political opinion and sexual orientation categories.

However, there will be positive benefits on gender, where Females represent 56% of rail users (population 52%). Therefore an improvement in public transport positively impacts females. People with disabilities are positively impacted with the programme targeting 100% of vehicles being fully accessible and substantial Disability Discrimination Act work being done for rail and bus stations.

Again there is a positive impact for those with dependents with the target of 100% accessibility for vehicles and improved access to passenger facilities and older people will also benefit from improved accessibility.

Objective C: to achieve more sustainable forms of development through investment in infrastructure that will protect and enhance the quality of our natural environment, contribute to reducing our carbon footprint to address the challenges of climate change, and deliver a higher quality infrastructure to enhance our built environment and public realm. 41

The new trains, buses and rapid transit vehicles have lower emissions than the generation being replaced. Increased public transport capacity will reduce the number of cars on the road thereby reducing the environmental impact of congestion. Train and bus stations will continue to be designed and built to be sympathetic to the local environment.

Programme

Total Capital £m

Total Revenue £m 12

Impact on Objective A

Impact on Objective B

Impact on Objective C

Greater Belfast Rapid Transit

234

Though exact numbers are not known at present, rapid transport will reduce journey times on increasingly congested Belfast roads and contribute to a more free flowing economy.

Maintain social cohesion and inclusion by sustaining access to goods and services for people in Belfast without access to a car.

Diversion of journeys away from roads will reduce carbon emissions and address the challenges of climate change.

Rail Programme – baseline plus core, Derry and Dublin line enhancements

578

32.1

Switch over 1 million passenger journeys from road to rail by 2018/19. This will reduce journey times on increasingly congested urban and rural roads and contribute to a more free flowing economy.

Maintain rail connection to north and north west Ireland to sustain social cohesion and inclusion, with 2.2 million passenger journeys on the Derry and Portrush lines by 2018/19.

Diversion of journeys away from private car use will reduce carbon emissions and address the challenges of climate change.

Bus Programme

242

0

Maintain bus journeys at 2006/07 level of 67.5 million. This will reduce journey times on increasingly congested roads and contribute to a more free flowing economy.

Maintain social cohesion and inclusion by sustaining access to goods and services for people in rural areas and people in urban areas without access to a car.

Diversion of journeys away from private car use will reduce carbon emissions and address the challenges of climate change.

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Programme

Total Capital £m

Total Revenue £m 1.5

Impact on Objective A

Impact on Objective B

Impact on Objective C

Rathlin Island passenger and roll on roll off ferry

7.5

Maintain the “life-line” economic connection of Rathlin Island to the rest of the north for the 70 (approx) island residents and well as develop the tourism potential of the island. Currently trips increase to around 11,000 in July and August compared to 1,000 on average for each remaining month of the year.

Maintain social cohesion and inclusion by sustaining access to goods and services for people resident on Rathlin Island.

This is an essential piece of transport infrastructure necessary for the built environment of Rathlin Island residents.

TOTAL (for this Measure)

1,061.5

45.6

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