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School

RapplixGmed, (Hopefully) Future MD

March 5, 2008

1 Introduction

probability of getting into a medical school. The method has its aws and is

based o of many assumptions that may or may not be true. I have taken

signicant liberty with the mathematics and statistics, and this may or may

not result in massive distortion of the result. I created it only as an academic

exercise out of my own curiosity. However, I give it to you guys on SDN in the

hope that it may help you select the schools that you have the best chances at

so that you will have success in the medical application process. Please give me

feedback as I denitely hope to improve it in the future.

The basic idea for the calculation is that I create a modied LizzyM score

that includes a weight for science GPA. Then, I use a comparison between

your LizzyM score and the score for the school, normalize it with the standard

deviation to create a multiplier that is applied to the acceptance rates for your

school of interest. The chances for all schools you plan to apply to can then be

combined mathematically to give your overall chance of getting into any medical

school.

2 Data

You will need to nd current data rst. This is easily available from the MSAR,

US News, or AAMC's website.

1. Mean total and science GPAs for every school you are interested in (MSAR)

2. Median MCAT scores for every section except writing for each school,

which I will neglect (MSAR)

3. Number of people accepted and total number applied in your category (ie

in state or out of state) for each school (US News and World Report)

1

4. National Standard Deviations for Matriculants for total and science GPA

and each section of MCAT (AAMC)

3 Assumptions

This is where I get to point out the massive aws of my calculations but due to

limited data, most of them cannot be helped.

knows that it will be skewed since the high scores can only get so high but

theres plenty of space on the low end

2. The median MCAT scores for each section are equal to the mean: I'd

expect the median to be slightly higher than the mean by as much as 1

point because of skew but for simplicity, lets keep it this way.

3. The standard deviations of all stats for all schools are equal to the standard

deviations of stats for matriculants: Probably not a good estimate since

all schools dier from each other and from the national average but the

data just doesn't exist for every school.

pared to the mean for a particular school approximately doubles your

chances of getting into that school: Wow, this is completely pulled out of

my behind but is based o of 8 minutes of eyeballing the graphs at the

beginning of the MSAR. This will also display saturation since doubling

your chances at 68% should not bring you over 100%!

probability of being accepted at another school: Very likely false because

if one school doesn't like your application, chances are, all of them will

not like it. However, this assumption makes calculations possible!

4 Calculations

Its very hard to combine your statistics in a reasonable way and I think that

the LizzyM score does a good job. The reason that I didn't want to use the

LizzyM score directly is that I believe the science GPAs are weighed a little bit

more than total GPA in the process. The origional LizzyM score has the form

L = 10GP A + M CAT . I propose that the modied LizzyM score should have

L0 = (4GP A + 6sGP A) + M CAT

the form where the weighings are completely

0 0

arbitrary. This value should be calculated for you LY ou and for each school Lx

you are interested in based o of their given data.

2

4.2 Calculation of L' Standard Deviation

Here, I just use standard error propagation methods to nd the SD for L'. Given

thatL0 = (4GP p A + 6sGP A) + (V R + BS + P S), then

sd{L0 } = 16sd{GP A}2 + 36sd{sGP A}2 + sd{V R}2 + sd{BS}2 + sd{P S}2 .

This value turns out to be σ = 3.84 for 2007 data.

Given that you are the denition of average for a school, what are your chances of

getting in? This should be as simple as dividing the number of accepted people

in your category (in state or out of state) by the number of people applying in

your category. Lets call this probability P¯x .

The multiplier should saturate meaning that if your chances of getting into a

school are already high, further increases in standard deviation above the mean

give diminishing returns. This ensures that percentages do not go over 100%.

P¯x

This done using an arbitrary saturation curve: M = 1.83 − 0.2+ P¯x

. This gives

the reasonable curve seen below:

Saturation Curve

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.5

Multiplier

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

0.9

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

Px

Once you have your LizzyM scores, run them through the equation! With every

increase in LizzyM score above or below the mean, your chances of admission

3

0 0

have the multiplier applied to the average: Px = P̄x M (LY ou −Lx )/σ . This gives

you a rough estimate of your probability of being accepted to that school.

School

You have your list of medical schools that you plan on applying to. What are

your chances of being accepted into at least one of them? Assuming indepen-

dence, this is equal to one minus the probability of not being accepted into any

Q

of them. Pb = 1 − (1 − Px ).

5 An Example!

Here are some schools that I am considering and I ran it through my equations

0

with my stats (LMe = 79.8), VA Resident:

6 Conclusions

Alright, I have to admit that this probably does not give the most accurate

results. However, it is a very interesting tool to give a rough estimate of your

4

admissions probabilities based o of your numbers and published statisitics of

each school you are interested in. It also gives a rough estimate of your chances

of being accepted anywhere so it can help you decide where you want to apply.

The major weakness I see in it is that it overestimates your chances of getting

into at least one school. I will try to nd a way around the independence

assumption if I can. Let me know what you guys think and I'll try to ne tune

this if I nd time.

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