© August 2010 Issue (Data through August 24, 2010

)

When Ted Turner pitched the idea for an all-cartoon network to investors in 1991, he made one key point: People love cartoons. In fact, Turner showed, all kinds of people love them, with nearly half the cartoon viewers not kids but their parents.1 The assertion piqued our curiosity: With cartoons embraced by such a broad swath of society, might social mood drive the sort of cartoons that studios produce and viewers watch? Bull- vs Bear-Market Cartoons We found that cartoon styles shift dramatically with social mood. Positive-mood cartoons are fun and wacky, for example. Negative-mood cartoons, on the other hand, are usually tragic or surreal. Bull-market animation is safe for the family. But many bear-market cartoons contain themes of sexuality, drugs and even racism. Figure 1 summarizes the key differences. See how many of the characteristics you can spot as we review the most popular cartoons of the past 90 years. Cycle Wave V of Supercycle (III): The First Animated Stars
Figure 1

The Right Hero at the Right Time: Felix the Cat (1925)

Figure 2

Felix the Cat and Mickey Mouse The 1920s launched the age of plot and characterization for cartoons. Most historians consider Felix the Cat, the decade’s most popular cartoon star, to be the first cartoon character with a distinct personality. Cartoon critic Maurice Horn calls him “the high water mark of silent animation.”2 Felix is creative, adventurous, fun-loving, hard-working and intelligent—a bull-market hero all the way. In the 1926 classic, Two-Lip Time, Felix courts a Dutch girl. Rather than fight a rival suitor, Felix inflates the man’s pants with a tire pump and watches him float away into the clouds. It was an apt metaphor for both markets and cat; success came easily and Felix’s popularity soared through the decade.

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Don Oriolo

The Socionomics Institute • www.socionomics.net 200 Main St. • Suite 350 • Gainesville, GA 30501 USA • 770-536-0309 • 800-336-1618 • FAX 770-536-2514

Figures: Warner Bros.

The Socionomist—August 24, 2010

As reflected by the stock market, social mood climbed to extreme heights by the end of the 1920s. This climate set the stage for Felix’s impish new rival, Mickey Mouse. Viewers today hardly recognize Walt Disney’s early incarnation. In Steamboat Willie (1928), Mickey is a prank-playing river hand who throttles a cat that looks quite like Felix (Figure 3). Ebullient audiences loved the carefree, rascally mouse.

Supercycle Wave (IV) Down: Sex, Drugs and Menace in the early 1930s Mickey’s New Direction; Felix’s Demise Mischievous Mickey’s run screeched to a halt with the social mood crash of 1929-1932. Suddenly, Mickey was out of step with the times, and audiences let Disney know it. In 1931, Terry Ramsaye of Motion Picture Herald wrote: Papas and mamas, especially mamas, have spoken vigorously … about [the] devilish, naughty little mouse. … Mickey has been spanked.3 In response, Disney morphed the mouse dramatically. The 1933 post-crash short The Mad Doctor was released in the depths of depression. It left all frivolity behind. The story opens with wind, thunder, a dark stranger and Pluto’s abduction. A doctor plans a gruesome experiment: He aims to replace Pluto’s body with a chicken’s to see whether the new creature will “bark, crow or cackle.” Mickey dodges traps and undead skeletons until the doctor’s snares finally catch him.

Disney

A Mouse Transformed: Pre-1929 Mickey gets into mischief; post-1932 Mickey accepts his destiny as hero.

Figure 3

Figure 4
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The Socionomist—August 24, 2010

In the climax, Mickey eludes a buzz saw, only to wake up in bed and realize that the whole ordeal was a nightmare. The post-crash plot is a major departure from Mickey’s pre-crash adventures. Nowhere does Mickey cause mischief. The antics and songs are gone, while the doctor’s menace and his castle are frighteningly real. With the subsequent rally in mood in the mid 1930s, Mickey received yet another role: that of the heroic leading man. The transformation mirrored America’s shift toward optimism, and it is this triumphant Mickey who endures today. Meanwhile Mickey’s predecessor, Felix, failed to adapt to the negative mood of the 1930s. Despite the breakthrough of sound, the cat clung even to his muteness. His audience grew similarly silent, and his popularity plummeted. Four times since, producers have tried to revive Felix—in 1936, 1958, 1991 and 1995, always in bull markets. The most successful was Felix’s run in the 1950s during Cycle Wave III up, when he starred in 260 new shorts and regained much of his former purr. Each revival, though, faded when social mood again turned down. Hollywood plans a Felix movie in 2012. But the release is years prior to our forecast final low in 2014-2016. As such, Felix’s sixth life should be short. Betty Boop, Vamp Meanwhile, the Max Fleischer studio struggled to create a star to rival Mickey and Felix. It finally struck gold after mood collapsed in the early 1930s. Their star: Blatantly vampish Betty Boop. Boop routinely dropped her skimpy top, and her skirt was forever riding

Bear-Market Sex Symbol: Her torso covered by just a lei, Betty dances a near-topless hula (1933).

Figure 5

“What follows is downright trippy as townsfolk, plants, cars and bridges all collapse into convulsive laughter.”
up. Betty was so risqué that one 1933 short, Boilesk, proved too much for even bear-market tastes and was banned in Philadelphia. Betty Boop tackled both coerced sex and drug use. In Chess-Nuts (1932), the Black Knight nearly deflowers Betty before Bimbo the dog comes to her rescue. In Boop-Oop-A-Doop (1932), Betty is a high wire performer in a circus as the villainous ringmaster lusts for her from below. After the performance, the ringmaster follows Betty to her tent, where he caresses her legs and threatens her job if she refuses to submit—a sore topic at the time, with a quarter of the U.S. unemployed. Koko the clown rushes in and knocks the

ringmaster unconscious with a test-your-strength mallet. When Koko asks if Betty is ok, she answers in song, "he couldn't take my boop-oop-a-doop away!" In another episode, Ha! Ha! Ha! (1934), Betty tries to ease Koko’s toothache. She administers nitrous oxide but drops the mask and accidentally exposes the entire town to gas. What follows is downright trippy as townsfolk, plants, cars and bridges all collapse into convulsive laughter. Cycle Wave I Up: The Mid 1930s Suggest Recovery Betty Slows Down While Popeye Takes Control The reign of sexy, druggy cartoons was shortlived. As social mood recovered in the mid 1930s, Betty’s creators fashioned a more modest wardrobe, but Betty couldn’t make the transition. Her boop-oopa-doop fizzled. Betty’s successor at Fleischer studios, Popeye the Sailor, debuted in 1933. His scruffy appearance and cando spirit mirrored the battered but upturning mood that fueled the 1932-1937 bull market. Popeye’s nemesis,

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Kings Features Syndicate

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Bluto, underwent a fascinating metamorphosis. Paramount and Fleischer first billed him as “Bluto the Terrible! Lower than bilge scum, meaner than Satan, and strong as an ox!”4 But as mood continued to recover, Bluto’s personality softened from serious threat to mere rival. Robert Prechter stated in The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, that rising mood celebrates heroes in “good-guy-versus-bad-guy” conflicts; by the time mood peaks, “Everybody’s a good guy.”5 The specials Popeye the Sailor Meets Sinbad the Sailor (1936) and Popeye Meets Ali Baba and his 40 Thieves (1937) were prototypical bull market cartoons containing a hero’s triumph, exotic settings and rollicking adventure. In fact, the shorts were so popular that theatres billed them ahead of the feature films for which they opened. Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs, released in 1937, also took full advantage of the Cycle degree peak in mood. Triumph over evil, hard work and adorable woodland creatures in the film all reflect the strong positive trend. The film’s wicked witch is an ideal villain for love to conquer, and Prince Charming is the quintessential bull market savior. The film was a hit. Disney spent $1.4 million on Snow White. In the film’s first theater run, he recouped it all—six times over. Cycle Wave II Down in the Early 1940s: Racism, War, the Fall of Man Pinocchio and Fantasia Struggle to Find the Era’s Theme The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 52% from 1937 to 1942, and the plunging mood also expressed itself via worldwide anger and fear. But animation studios somehow missed the memo. Some

A Censored Centaur: Sunflower, far left, Fantasia’s black centaur. Because of censoring, it is difficult to locate a color image that contains the character. Trouble Brewing: Right, the film’s bull-market hero leaves bear market audiences unfulfilled (1940).

Figure 7

of their films contained dark elements, but for the most part, their themes were just too sunny for the times. Pinocchio is a good example. The mostly upbeat film premiered in 1940. It contains many bear themes, including imprisonment, drinking, fighting and gambling. But the delinquency belies the film’s overall positive theme of family love. Fantasia also premiered in 1940 with magic, demonic gargoyles and racial stereotypes. Disney’s hero, Mickey, abuses powerful sorcery and gets in way over his head. But like Pinocchio, Fantasia’s overall theme—exciting visuals, beautiful music, Mickey being mischievous— was too positive, and audiences of the day mostly yawned, with neither film breaking even until more than a decade later. Peace on Earth’s Morbid Message In contrast, MGM more fully captured the negative mood with Peace on Earth (1939). In the short, tools of war litter the world. A grandfather squirrel describes now-extinct Man to his progeny. After the final two living men kill one another, the squirrel and his fellow woodland friends dance among Man’s remains. Only in an extended bear market would a children’s cartoon suggest that utopia is born of mankind’s extinction. Bambi Gets It Right Just before the low in 1942, Disney finally tapped the mood with its landmark film Bambi. Ostensibly a children’s story about happy forest creatures, Bambi actually reveals deep fear and misanthropy. Though never seen, Man and his menace pervade the film. The murder of Bambi’s mother remains one of animation’s most memorable sequences. The scene continues to traumatize children 70 years after its release. According Continued on page 6

Kings Features Syndicate

Tough, Purposeful: Popeye confronts problems with bull-market gusto (1933).

Figure 6

4

Disney

The Socionomist—August 24, 2010

Woody Woodpecker: A (NUT) cAse sTUdy

Consider Woody Woodpecker from his birth just before Primary wave 1 up to his demise just after Primary wave 5. Early Woody (1941) was grotesque, insane and mean, a good example of the kind of characters bear markets produce. By 1945, Primary wave 1 had removed the psychosis from his eyes and mitigated his madness. In the early 1950s amidst Primary wave 3, Woody was lean, determined, and blessed with clever scripts and fun villains upon whom to exact his heroics. Critics agree that this was the era of Woody’s best cartoons, including Termites from Mars and Socko in Morocco. Woody’s appearance continued to sharpen into 1960, but he became increasingly benign. By the late 1960s,

Figure 12

Woody was cute incarnate and, to most critics, utterly boring. Late-bull-trend morality led to heavy censorship, which took any remaining edge off Woody. The move toward a benign Woody frustrated Walter Lantz, Woody’s creator. Critic Leonard Maltin
notes that: For [Woody’s] most recent Saturday morning program on the NBC network, [Lantz] had to remove every sequence in which a character fired a gun or hit someone on the head with a hammer. Is it any wonder that Woody and his cohorts became blander as the years rolled on?6 To a socionomist, it is not. Woody Woodpecker’s genesis was in a bear market. He successfully adapted to bull market tastes, but after reaching his comic peak early in Primary 3, rising mood ground away what had made the character so funny. By the end of his run he had become so sweet that he did not evolve back to his former self when he needed to.
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Warner Bros. drew both Prince C h aw m i n ’ a n d t h e d wa r f s w i t h stereotypically expanded features, and So White (named Coal Black in the title) is a Betty-Boop-style sex symbol. Critic Steve Bailey comments in 2003: [The dwarfs] are little more than thicklipped comic relief. The racial aspect is merely a smokescreen for what this cartoon is really about: sex. … [The Wicked Queen’s first words] are “Magic mirror on the wall, send me a prince about six feet tall.” So White, far from Disney's virginal image, wears a low-cut blouse and thigh-high shorts, and sends blazes of erotic ecstasy through every male she meets.8
Anti-Man: In Peace on Earth, cuddly creatures delight in humanity’s end (1939).

Formerly MGM, now Warner Bros.

Figure 8

to boxofficemojo.com, the film made $3 million in its first release, a remarkable feat given that occupying Germany blocked its screening throughout most of Europe. Coal Black and de Sebben Dwarfs Amidst the deeply pessimistic mood, the Warner Bros. studio produced cartoons that shock viewers today. The best example is 1943’s Coal Black and de Sebben Dwarfs. In his 1983 book Of Mice and Magic, critic Leonard Maltin writes: The stereotyped characters and 1940s-style enthusiasm for sex leave modern viewers aghast. The dialogue is strictly jive talk, and the pulsating music bounces the action along as the evil queen calls Murder Inc. to ‘black out So White’ and keep her from Prince Chawmin’.7

Cycle Wave III Up: The Postwar Prosperity of the Mid 1940s and 1950s As Prechter and Hall pointed out in the August 2009 Socionomist, the first halves of big third waves do not reflect rising optimism so much as declining pessimism.9 Thus, popular cartoons in the early 1940s are fun, wacky works that, at the same time, celebrate residual bear themes. Later in the rally, the cartoons become one-sidedly “bull market.” Wolfie and Red Celebrate Life’s Baser Pleasures As Cycle Wave III began, bull themes returned and pessimism resumed its retreat. MGM tapped the complex mid-1940s mood with Tex Avery’s Wolfie and Red cartoons. Red Hot Riding Hood (1943) casts Red as a nightclub dancer and the wolf as a lustful cad. The short was a hit with civilians and soldiers alike, and Avery released three more in the series to thunderous acclaim. Maurice Horn notes, “Avery has been hailed as one of the most gifted and imaginative cartoon directors, a ‘Walt Disney that read Franz Kafka.’”10 Yet Avery’s real genius was his timing: Such raunchy cartoons can work only in a late bear or early bull market. Cartoons would not openly address sex again for another 25 years. Tom and Jerry Discover Slapstick Hilarity MGM also gave violence a bull market spin with its Tom and Jerry series. Says Horn, “Their whimsical atmosphere, frenetic motion and choreographed violence were more in tune with the times than Disney’s shorts.”11 The cat-and-mouse team engaged in slapstick antics with zero consequences. Characters might lose a tooth, get electrocuted or be driven into the ground by a telephone pole, but they always remained safe and

Warner Bros.

Lucky Sebben: So White and her entourage (1943).

Figure 9

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Tom’s recital, with Jerry taking credit for the performance. It was the right cartoon for the times, and Tom and Jerry won seven Academy Awards. Warner Bros. and Disney Mirror Auto Styles In his 2006 study Social Mood and Automobile Styling, socionomist Mark Galasiewski expounded on Prechter’s earlier observations that cars produced Hubba Hubba: The Wolf’s reaction to a bear market Little Red Riding Hood in bull markets are angular and sharp(1943). Animation aficionados will note the similarities between Red and edged, while bear market cars are another bear-market starlet from a bull-market era, Jessica Rabbit (1988). soft and rounded.12 Now we find that Figure 10 animation styles at both Warner Bros. and Disney studios also fit this pattern. whole to play-fight another day. The sunny, bull-market Warner Bros. found its feet in the 1940s. The studio mood showed through characters, story, animation and created Daffy Duck, Porky Pig and Bugs Bunny during gags in nearly every Tom and Jerry short, typified in the sideways/down years of the late 1930s, and their The Cat Concerto (1946), released the year of a stock early incarnations were flat, dull and surreal. But note market top. Tom is an esteemed pianist and Jerry the how the renderings sharpen as mood improves (Figure unwitting resident inside Tom’s piano. Hijinks ensue at 11), just as car lines do. Even Porky becomes leaner and

Warner Bros.

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more anthropomorphic. The trio also develops distinct, complex personalities. The gags become layered, and the worst that ever befalls any character is a spinning beak or singed whiskers. Plots lack villains; violence is caricatured and derives mostly from zany rivalries. The studio’s beloved Wile E. Coyote and Roadrunner series (1948-1966) centered entirely on conflict. Yet the shorts aired during a roaring positive-mood period, and in an extreme expression of inclusionism, both rivals manage to win our empathy. We want Wile E.’s elaborate inventions to succeed, yet we also delight when the same inventions backfire. We know the spectacular failures will result in a long, whistling fall punctuated by a puff of dust. Positive mood appreciates mollified violence; successful cartoons deliver it.

The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior (1999) pointed out Disney’s Cycle wave III successes, with the hits Cinderella, Sleeping Beauty, 101 Dalmatians, and others.13 We call special attention to Sleeping Beauty, released in 1959 after the midpoint in rising mood. Sleeping Beauty signaled a new direction for the studio. The film uses stylized, angular illustrations for characters and background, a departure from the roundness of Disney’s 1930s productions. With social mood strongly positive, the animation style would define Disney for the remainder of Cycle III—as well as during Cycle V. n —Citations, page 11
This concludes part one of our study. Part two will explore censored, banned and X-rated cartoons, look at animation from the 1960s through today, and offer a forecast for what the coming mood should mean for the medium. —Ed.

AUTHORITARIANISM UPDATE WikiLeaks Takes Center Stage; Government Reactions Intensify
In his two-part April and May study published in The Socionomist, Alan Hall predicted that: • A continuing long-term trend toward negative social mood will cause society to become increasing fearful. This movement will lead to polarized views toward authoritarianism. • Increases in surveillance and other authoritarian activities will lead to escalating anti-authoritarian actions. • Anti-authoritarian activity will in turn generate legislation and other actions to curb freedoms. • Whistleblower websites like WikiLeaks will increasingly illustrate that an unfettered Internet undermines governments’ ability to control information. The days of such unrestricted sites on the Web are numbered. • Paranoid governments will seek the authority to shut down large blocks of the Internet, citing security concerns.1 Hall’s forecasts are playing out in rapid fashion. WikiLeaks Becomes the Hotspot In early July, WikiLeaks released 91,000 secret documents related to the war in Afghanistan. It was the largest intelligence leak in U.S. history. The White House at first downplayed the revelations as wellknown problems. The media did as well:
8

Unlike the explosive Pentagon Papers published in The New York Times during the Vietnam War in 1971, the files don’t show top U.S. officials misleading the public about the war’s course.2

But the dismissive attitude changed rapidly. On July 25, WikiLeaks’ founder, Julian Assange, claimed he had evidence of possible war crimes. On July 27, he started a war of words: He scoffed when the Frontline’s moderator spoke of British soldiers “giving their lives” in Afghanistan. “To what?” he asked.3

“The Washington Post called for the U.S. government to break international law if necessary to stop WikiLeaks.”
Just two days later on July 29, the U.S. government suddenly went from soft on WikiLeaks to very pointed: U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Admiral Mike Mullen strongly condemned WikiLeaks … . Gates said the [early July] leak was “potentially severe and dangerous for our troops, our allies and our Afghan partners … .” Mullen was even more direct and said that WikiLeaks “might already have on their hands the blood of some young soldier.”4

The Socionomist—August 24, 2010

A former CIA director followed up by describing the leaked documents as “priceless” to America’s enemies. On August 3 the Washington Post joined the chorus, calling in an editorial for the U.S. government to break international law if necessary to stop WikiLeaks. The government should “contravene customary international law” and use “intelligence and military assets to bring Assange to justice and put his criminal syndicate out of business,” it said. On August 3, just nine days after the White House dismissed the revelations as old news, a U.S. Congressman said that U.S. Army intelligence analyst Private Bradley Manning, the alleged source of the leaks, should be executed for treason. Rising Polarization WikiLeaks’ quick rise to firebrand status is but one fulfillment of our forecast for increasing conflict over authoritarianism. In the three short months since Hall’s study, the Washington Post published its “Top Secret America” investigation, a two-year project that describes the immense post-9/11 national security buildup in the United States as “a hidden world, growing beyond control.” Even more significant is

encourage this surveillance, and the potential for punitive disconnections by private actors, without adequate court oversight or due process.6

Negative social mood is eroding fundamental rights in the European Union (EU). Member states have varying standards of civil liberty. The Union allows each country to use a “no-evidence-needed” European Arrest Warrant to require any other member state to arrest, detain and extradite criminal suspects—even if those suspects have committed nothing deemed a crime by the extraditing state. The number of European Arrest Warrant detentions in Britain has risen 43-fold since 2004 … . They can spend long periods in jail – here and abroad – for … offences which are not crimes in Britain. Foreign prosecutors do not have to present evidence to the British courts, just demand the person be “surrendered.”7 Why This is Happening In April, Hall explained how such major ideological conflicts can develop rapidly in formerly concordant societies: A society’s authoritarian impulse is rooted in social mood ... A bearish mood can push a society with very low interest in authoritarianism into a significant authoritarian/anti-authoritarian conflict.8 Hall’s study included a five-step graphic illustrating the process. Figure 12 shows step 3, which depicts where Hall believes the U.S. is situated currently. To see the full graphic from the April issue, click on the figure below.
Anarchist

“The Baltimore Chronicle describes the proposed law as a ‘kill switch for the (entire) internet.’”
the “Protecting Cyberspace as a National Asset Act of 2010,” introduced by U.S. Senator Joe Lieberman on June 10. The law would empower the president to “shut down the Internet, disconnect its networks, and force web sites, blogs, providers, search engines and software companies to ‘immediately comply with any emergency measure or action.’” The Baltimore Chronicle describes the proposed law as a “kill switch for the Internet.”5 Meanwhile, a number of other nations continue to negotiate the sweeping Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement (ACTA), which the European Commission says would establish international agreement on enforcement of intellectual property rights but which antiauthoritarians claim will curb freedoms. An international panel convened in June by the American University Washington College of Law said the ACTA has: … grave consequences for the global economy … . [It would] curtail enjoyment of fundamental rights and liberties, … encourage internet service providers to police the activities of internet users, ... [and]

Far Left

Far Right

Authoritarianism/Totalitarianism

Mood decline accelerates: Polarization increases, as do calls for separation, opposition and destruction of the status quo. Society’s sense for what is “normal” loses definition.

Figure 12

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What’s Next? WikiLeaks continues to push its agenda. On July 16, Assange said that the video it posted of a U.S. helicopter killing a dozen civilians in Iraq had inspired “an enormous quantity of whistle-blower disclosures of high caliber … . There are many things which are very explosive.” The founder also threatens to release a video purportedly showing a U.S. massacre of civilians in Afghanistan. CNN reported, “[Assange] said the site’s hope is that such video ‘will change the perception of the people who are paying’ for the war.”9 The site also posted for download a huge, encrypted file labeled “Insurance.”4 The file appears to be

Time Running Out?: WikiLeaks’ hourglass logo may be more appropriate than its advocates realize.

graymail—a thinly veiled threat to reveal state secrets. Should something happen to Assange or the web site, those who have downloaded the file would need only the password, not yet disseminated, to open it. On August 5, the Pentagon demanded that WikiLeaks recall all the leaked Department of Defense documents from the web and return them. Recalling the documents is impossible, as Hall noted in his study. On August 10, the Obama administration asked allies Britain, Germany, Australia and others to crack down on WikiLeaks with criminal charges and severe limitations on Assange’s international travel. On August 12, the Pentagon warned that WikiLeaks’ next posting will be more damaging than the initial release. As the conflict festers, the U.S. is no doubt rethinking its relations with Iceland, whose parliament voted unanimously in June to offer legal protection to whistle-blower sites like WikiLeaks and their employees. One sponsor of the legislation said, “They are trying to make everything opaque. We are trying to make it transparent.”10 Serious authoritarian/anti-authoritarian conflict is just beginning, Hall reiterates. “As Primary wave 3 accelerates, so will the conflict,” Hall says. “The WikiLeaks saga could end abruptly if the authoritarian impulse to extinguish the site prevails. Regardless, the struggle between secrecy and transparency—and authoritarianism and anti-authoritarianism—will continue to intensify.” n —Citations, page 11

The Socionomist is a monthly publication of the Socionomics Institute designed to help readers understand and prepare for major changes in social mood. To learn more and receive additional excerpts from The Socionomist and other socionomics resources, sign up to receive free occasional email updates from the Socionomics Institute at: www.socionomics.net/august-email-updates

Upcoming Socionomics Conference: Our plans for a one-day conference in Atlanta are coming together. We expect a small, intimate gathering, which will give attendees a chance to soak in new ideas and mingle with top socionomics thought leaders and like-minded individuals. Speakers tentatively include Robert Prechter, John Casti, Cambridge Research Fellow Matt Lampert and others from both inside and outside the Institute. If you would like more information on details as we settle them, please email a request to conference@socionomics.net. —Ed. CITATIONS

OF MICE AND MOOD
1Turner,

T. (Producer). (1991). Cartoon network 1991 presentation reel. [Web]. Retrieved from http://www.youtube.com/ watch?v=b0Wm-VaYxeA 2Horn, Maurice, Felix the Cat. (1980). The World encyclopedia of cartoons. New York City: Chelsea House Publishers, 271. 3Maltin, Leonard. (1980). Of Mice and magic: a history of american animated cartoons. New York City: Penguin Books, 37. 4Ibid, 110. 10

The Socionomist—August 24, 2010
R. R. (1999). The Wave principle of human social behavior and the new science of socionomics. Gainesville, GA: New Classics Library, 232. 6Maltin, Leonard. (1980). Of Mice and magic: a history of american animated cartoons. New York City: Penguin Books, 186. 7Ibid, 250-251. 8 Bailey, Steve. (2003, April 04). Imdb user reviews for coal black and de sebben dwarfs. Retrieved from http://www.imdb. com/title/tt0035743/usercomments 9Hall, A, & Prechter, R.R. (2009, August). The Wave principle delineates phases of social caution and ebullience. The Socionomist, 1(3), 3. 10Horn, Maurice. (1980). Tex Avery. (1980). The World encyclopedia of cartoons. New York City: Chelsea House Publishers, 103. 11Ibid. 683. 12Galasiewski, M. (2006, July 14). Social mood and automobile styling. The Elliott Wave Theorist, 7(28), Retrieved from http://www.elliottwave.com 13Prechter, R. R. (1999). The Wave principal of human social behavior and the new science of socionomics. Gainesville, GA: New Classics Library, 242.
5Prechter,

1, 7Hall, A. Authoritarianism:

the wave principle governs fear and the social desire to submit. (2010, April, May). The Socionomist. 1April, May, entire issues; 7May, 1. 2Page, Susan. (2010, July 27). Army begins probe of leaked secret afghan war files. USA Today, 1. 3Associated Press. (2010, July 7). Editor says source of afghan info is unknown . Retrieved from http://www.usatoday.com/ printedition/news/20100729/wikileaks29_st.art.htm 4Zetter, Kim. (2010, July 30). Wikileaks posts mysterious ‘insurance’ file. Retrieved from http://www.wired.com/threatlev el/2010/07/wikileaks-insurance-file/ 5Lendman, S. (2010, July 15). Under threat: a free and open internet. Retrieved from http://baltimorechronicle. com/2010/071510Lendman.shtml 6Text of urgent acta communique. (2010, July 23). Program on Information Justice and Intellectual Property. Retrieved from http://www.wcl.american.edu/pijip/go/acta-communique 7Gilligan, A. (2010, August 21). Surge in britons exported for trial. Retrieved from http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ newstopics/politics/7958202/Surge-in-Britons-exported-for-trial.html 8The wave principle governs fear and the social desire to submit. (2010, May). The Socionomist, 1. 9Galant, R. (2010, July 16). Wikileaks founder: site getting tons of ‘high caliber’ disclosures. Retrieved from http://www.cnn. com/2010/TECH/web/07/16/wikileaks.disclosures/ 10Mackey, R. (2010, June 17). Victory for wikileaks in iceland’s parliament. Retrieved from http://thelede.blogs.nytimes. com/2010/06/17/victory-for-wikileaks-in-icelands-parliament/

AUTHORITARIANISM UPDATE

The Socionomist (so-she-on-oh-mist) is published by the Socionomics Institute, Robert R. Prechter, Jr., president. Alan Hall, Ben Hall, Matt Lampert and Euan Wilson contribute to The Socionomist. Mark Almand, editor. We are always interested in guest submissions. Please email manuscripts and proposals to Ben Hall via institute@socionomics.net. Mailing address: 200 Main St., Suite 350, Gainesville, Georgia, 30501, U.S.A. Phone: 770-536-0309. All contents copyright © 2010 Socionomics Institute. All rights reserved. Reproduction, retransmission or redistribution in any form is illegal and strictly forbidden. Otherwise, feel free to quote, cite or review if full credit is given. Typos and other such errors may be corrected after initial posting. For subscription matters, contact Customer Service: Call 770-536-0309 (internationally) or 800-336-1618 (within the U.S.). Or email customerservice@socionomics.net. For our latest offerings: Visit our website, www.socionomics.net, listing BOOKS, DVDs and more. Correspondence is welcome, but volume of mail often precludes a reply. For best results, send concise e-mail to institute@socionomics.net. Most economists, historians and sociologists presume that events determine society’s mood. But socionomics hypothesizes the opposite: that social mood determines the character of social events. The events of history—such as investment booms and busts, politics, population, and even peace and war—are the products of a naturally occurring pattern of social-mood fluctuation. Such events, therefore, are not randomly distributed, as is commonly believed, but are in fact probabilistically predictable. Socionomics also posits that the stock market is the best meter of a society’s aggregate mood, that news is irrelevant to social mood, and that financial and economic decision-making are fundamentally different in that financial decisions are motivated by the herding impulse while economic choices are guided by supply and demand. At no time will the Socionomics Institute make specific recommendations about a course of action for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.

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