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Assignment

ON

Submitted to

DR. R. Venkateswarlu

(Professor)

GSIB

Submitted by

Prathik - 1226210101

(International Banking and Finance)

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

We bestow the privilege of expressing our gratitude towards those who have helped us in

successfully completing this report. Despite our endeavor, we would like to thank our

esteemed guide,

Dr. R.VENKATESWARLU, GSIB, GITAM UNIVERSITY, for his continuous guidance

and stupendous support for the completion of our project in time.

DECLARATION

We hereby declare that this report entitled “Factors affecting the Foreign Exchange rates in

India” have been prepared by us in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the award of

We also declare to the best of our knowledge that this project is a result of our own and that

has not been submitted to any other university or institution for award of any degree or

diploma.

Declared by

K. Hari Krishna -1226210115

A. Prathik - 1226210101

Objectives of the study:

The objective of the study is to determine the factors effecting Foreign exchange rates in

India. In this project we study how those factors effecting foreign exchanges rates and among

those factors, which factor is influencing the most.

General Introduction on the industry

Foreign exchange rate:

Foreign exchange, or Forex, is the conversion of one country's currency into that of

another. In a free economy, a country's currency is valued according to factors of supply and

demand. In other words, a currency's value can be pegged to another country's currency, such

as the U.S. dollar, or even to a basket of currencies. A country's currency value also may be

fixed by the country's government. However, most countries float their currencies freely

against those of other countries, which keep them in constant fluctuation.

The value of any particular currency is determined by market forces based on trade,

investment, tourism, and geo-political risk. Every time a tourist visits a country, for example,

he or she must pay for goods and services using the currency of the host country. Therefore, a

tourist must exchange the currency of his or her home country for the local currency.

Currency exchange of this kind is one of the demand factors for a particular currency.

Another important factor of demand occurs when a foreign company seeks to do business

with a company in a specific country. Usually, the foreign company will have to pay the local

company in their local currency. At other times, it may be desirable for an investor from one

country to invest in another, and that investment would have to be made in the local currency

as well. All of these requirements produce a need for foreign exchange and are the reasons

why foreign exchange markets are so large.

Foreign exchange is handled globally between banks and all transactions fall under the

auspice of the Bank of International Settlements.

Aside from factors such as interest rates and inflation, the exchange rate is one of the most

important determinants of a country's relative level of economic health. Exchange rates play a

vital role in a country's level of trade, which is critical to most every free market economy in

the world. For this reason, exchange rates are among the most watched analyzed and

governmentally manipulated economic measures. But exchange rates matter on a smaller

scale as well: they impact the real return of an investor's portfolio. Here we look at some of

the major forces behind exchange rate movements.

Overview:

Before we look at these forces, we should sketch out how exchange rate movements affect a

nation's trading relationships with other nations. A higher currency makes a

country's exports more expensive and imports cheaper in foreign markets; a lower currency

makes a country's exports cheaper and its imports more expensive in foreign markets. A

higher exchange rate can be expected to lower the country's balance of trade, while a lower

exchange rate would increase it.

Numerous factors determine exchange rates, and all are related to the trading relationship

between two countries. Remember, exchange rates are relative, and are expressed as a

comparison of the currencies of two countries. The following are some of the principal

determinants of the exchange rate between two countries. Note that these factors are in no

particular order; like many aspects of economics, the relative importance of these factors is

subject to much debate.

Differentials in Inflation:

As a general rule, a country with a consistently lower inflation rate exhibits a rising currency

value, as its purchasing power increases relative to other currencies. During the last half of

the twentieth century, the countries with low inflation included Japan, Germany and

Switzerland, while the U.S. and Canada achieved low inflation only later. Those countries

with higher inflation typically see depreciation in their currency in relation to the currencies

of their trading partners. This is also usually accompanied by higher interest rates.

Interest rates, inflation and exchange rates are all highly correlated. By manipulating interest

rates, central banks exert influence over both inflation and exchange rates, and changing

interest rates impact inflation and currency values. Higher interest rates offer lenders in an

economy a higher return relative to other countries. Therefore, higher interest rates attract

foreign capital and cause the exchange rate to rise. The impact of higher interest rates is

mitigated, however, if inflation in the country is much higher than in others, or if additional

factors serve to drive the currency down. The opposite relationship exists for decreasing

interest rates - that is, lower interest rates tend to decrease exchange rates.

Current-Account Deficits:

The current account is the balance of trade between a country and its trading

partners, reflecting all payments between countries for goods, services, interest and

dividends. A deficit in the current account shows the country is spending more on foreign

trade than it is earning, and that it is borrowing capital from foreign sources to make up the

deficit. In other words, the country requires more foreign currency than it receives through

sales of exports, and it supplies more of its own currency than foreigners demand for its

products. The excess demand for foreign currency lowers the country's exchange rate until

domestic goods and services are cheap enough for foreigners, and foreign assets are too

expensive to generate sales for domestic interests.

Public Debt:

Countries will engage in large-scale deficit financing to pay for public sector projects and

governmental funding. While such activity stimulates the domestic economy, nations with

large public deficits and debts are less attractive to foreign investors. The reason is a large

debt encourages inflation, and if inflation is high, the debt will be serviced and ultimately

paid off with cheaper real dollars in the future.

In the worst case scenario, a government may print money to pay part of a large debt, but

increasing the money supply inevitably causes inflation. Moreover, if a government is not

able to service its deficit through domestic means (selling domestic bonds, increasing the

money supply), then it must increase the supply of securities for sale to foreigners, thereby

lowering their prices. Finally, a large debt may prove worrisome to foreigners if they believe

the country risks defaulting on its obligations. Foreigners will be less willing to own

securities denominated in that currency if the risk of default is great. For this reason, the

country's debt rating

Terms of Trade:

A ratio comparing export prices to import prices, the terms of trade is related to current

accounts and the balance of payments. If the price of a country's exports rises by a greater rate

than that of its imports, its terms of trade have favorably improved. Increasing terms of trade

shows greater demand for the country's exports. This, in turn, results in rising revenues from

exports, which provides increased demand for the country's currency (and an increase in the

currency's value). If the price of exports rises by a smaller rate than that of its imports, the

currency's value will decrease in relation to its trading partners

Foreign investors inevitably seek out stable countries with strong economic performance in

which to invest their capital. A country with such positive attributes will draw investment

funds away from other countries perceived to have more political and economic risk. Political

turmoil, for example, can cause a loss of confidence in a currency and a movement of capital

to the currencies of more stable countries.

The exchange rate of the currency in which a portfolio holds the bulk of its investments

determines that portfolio's real return. A declining exchange rate obviously decreases the

purchasing power of income and capital gains derived from any returns. Moreover, the

exchange rate influences other income factors such as interest rates, inflation and even capital

gains from domestic securities. While exchange rates are determined by numerous complex

factors that often leave even the most experienced economists flummoxed, investors should

still have some understanding of how currency values and exchange rates play an important

role in the rate of return on their investments.

Determination of Foreign Exchange rates:

Exchange rates between currencies can be either controlled as in the case of India

prior to the reforms or left to the market to decide, as is the case now in India. In the

case of controlled exchange rates, it is quite obvious that the government would fix

them, so the question really boils down to what is the process by which markets

determine rates. The process is really not different in its essentials from the way any

market functions. The supply and demand for different goods determine what their

prices are. In this case, substitute currencies for goods. Let’s take the case of one

foreign currency to understand

how this market works. Thus, the dollar-rupee exchange rate will depend on how the

demand-supply balance moves. When the demand for dollars in India rises and

supply does not rise correspondingly, each dollar will cost more rupees to buy.

Supply of dollars:

The supply of dollars comes from several sources. One obvious source is Indian

exporters of goods and services who sell their wares in the international market for

dollars. Another important source is Indian immigrant workers abroad who repatriate

money to their kin at home. The third major source is investments by foreign

individuals, companies or institutions in India. This could be in the form of foreign

direct investment where they are using the money to create some assets in India or to

buy into the equity of an existing company. It could also be in the form of portfolio

investments where dollars are being brought in to

buy assets in the stock markets, for instance, with the purpose of selling these assets

when they appreciate in value to book a profit. While all these forms contribute to

the supply of dollars, it should be obvious that the last of them portfolio investment

is a relatively uncertain source, since it necessarily implies an exit of dollars at some

point. That explains why such flows of capital from abroad are often described as hot

flows, since they can move out very rapidly. Foreign tourists visiting India would

also contribute to the inflow of dollars.

Factors determine the demand for dollars:

Just as exporters earn dollars, importers spend them. Imports are thus the most

important source of demand for dollars. Another major source of demand is

individuals or companies repatriating incomes or profits to their home countries.

This would include portfolio investors as well as Indian branches of multinationals

sending back some of their profits to the parent company as dividends. A third

source would be Indians investing abroad, whether as firms or as individuals.

Besides this, of course, the forex you buy when you travel abroad is also adding to

the demand for dollars. As you can see, the factors that contribute to the demand for

dollars are mirror images of those that add to their supply.

As should be clear by now, this is because the demand for dollars is surging when its

supply is not. A couple of factors have been particularly crucial in this.

First, the trade deficit the gap between the value of our imports and that of our

exports has been widening, meaning exporters are earning a smaller proportion of the

dollars that importers need. The high prices of crude oil have been a large, but not

the only, factor. Second, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) who had been pumping

billions of dollars every year into a booming Indian stock exchange have this year

been equally desperately pulling out their money thanks to the financial crisis facing

them in their home market.

Role of expectations:

As in any market, expectations and the consequent speculation play a significant

role. For instance, when there is an expectation that the dollar will rise against the

rupee, exporters tend to hold back their earnings for a while in the hope of getting a

higher rate when they ultimately bring their dollars in.

This, of course, skews the supply-demand equation even further confirming their

initial expectations and thus setting off a vicious cycle. Similarly, importers who

expect to pay more for their dollars tomorrow will try and buy up as much as they

can today, adding to the current demand and making the dollar rise

even more. Currency traders in such a situation would also try to benefit by betting

on what the future price of the dollar would be.

RBI role

With hundreds of billions of dollars in its reserves, the RBI would seem to have the

ability to be a major factor in how the dollar moves. If, for instance, it were to dump

a huge amount of dollars in the market, it could dramatically add to the supply and

hence reduce the price. There are at least two major reasons why central banks are

reluctant to do this. First, they do not like to interfere too much with market

valuation of currencies, though they do try and contain excessive volatility. Second,

every time the RBI sells dollars, it buys up rupees, thus sucking some liquidity out of

the system. Given the current liquidity crunch, that is obviously not something it

would be very keen to do

The answer is less simple than it might seem. Exporters clearly gain when there is

depreciation, since they can price their goods cheaper in dollars and yet earn the

same amount of rupees, making them more competitive internationally. However,

importers lose because their costs go up and since they are likely to pass this on to

consumers it means costs in the economy rise. In theory, as import costs rise,

imports should fall and with exports rising the trade gap should close thereby

correcting the demand-supply mismatch in dollars and leading to the rupee

appreciating again. In practice, this often does not happen. One reason is that not all

imports may be price elastic that is, some imports might not be reduced despite

higher costs. The same may be true in exports, where some exports may not gain

since their demand is not price elastic. Also, other factors including speculation may

more than offset any reduction in the trade deficit

METHODOLY

Multiple Regressions:-

relationships between a metric dependent variable and two or more

independent variables. It can be used in the following ways:

1. Determine whether the independent variable explain a significant variable in the

dependent variable: whether a relationship exists.

2. Determine how much of the variation in the dependent variable can be explained

by the independent variable: strength of the relationship

3. Determine the structure or form of the relationship the mathematical equation

relating the independent and dependent variables

4. Predict the value of the dependent variable

5. Cannot for other independent variable when evaluating the contribution of a

specific variable or set of variables

Although the independent variable may explain the variation in the dependent variable, this

does not necessarily imply causation. The use of the terms dependent do criterion variables,

and independent or predictor variables, in regression analysis arises from the mathematical

relationship between the variables. These terms do not imply that the criterion variable is

dependent on the independent variable in a casual sense. Regression analysis is concerned

with the nature and degree of association between variable and does not imply or assume any

causality.

Computational Approach

The general computational problem that needs to be solved in multiple regression analysis is

to fit a straight line to a number of points.

In the simplest case - one dependent and one independent variable - you can visualize this in

a scatter plot

full text: the Y variable can be expressed in terms of a constant (a) and a slope (b) times the X

variable. The constant is also referred to as the intercept, and the slope as the regression

coefficient or B coefficient.

Note that in this equation, the regression coefficients (or B coefficients) represent the

independent contributions of each independent variable to the prediction of the dependent

variable. Another way to express this fact is to say that, for example, variable X 1 is correlated

with the Y variable, after controlling for all other independent variables. This type of

correlation is also referred to as a partial correlation

The regression line expresses the best prediction of the dependent variable (Y), given the

independent variables (X). However, nature is rarely (if ever) perfectly predictable, and

usually there is substantial variation of the observed points around the fitted regression line.

The deviation of a particular point from the regression line (its predicted value) is called the

residual value.

Interpreting the Correlation Coefficient R

Customarily, the degree to which two or more predictors (independent or X variables) are

related to the dependent (Y) variable is expressed in the correlation coefficient R, which is the

square root of R-square. In multiple regression, R can assume values between 0 and 1. To

interpret the direction of the relationship between variables, look at the signs (plus or minus)

of the regression or B coefficients. If a B coefficient is positive, then the relationship of this

variable with the dependent variable is positive if the B coefficient is negative then the

relationship is negative. Of course, if the B coefficient is equal to 0 then there is no

relationship between the variables.

Assumption of Linearity

First of all, as is evident in the name multiple linear regression, it is assumed that the

relationship between variables is linear. In practice this assumption can virtually never be

confirmed; fortunately, multiple regression procedures are not greatly affected by minor

deviations from this assumption. However, as a rule it is prudent to always look at bivariate

scatter plot of the variables of interest. If curvature in the relationships is evident, you may

consider either transforming the variables, or explicitly allowing for nonlinear component.

Normality Assumption

It is assumed in multiple regression that the residuals (predicted minus observed values) are

distributed normally (i.e., follow the normal distribution). Again, even though most tests

(specifically the F-test) are quite robust with regard to violations of this assumption, it is

always a good idea, before drawing final conclusions, to review the distributions of the major

variables of interest. You can produce histograms for the residuals as well as normal

probability plots, in order to inspect the distribution of the residual values.

Limitations

The major conceptual limitation of all regression techniques is that you can only ascertain

relationships, but never be sure about underlying causal mechanism.

independent variable and the sample size to account for diminishing returns. After the first

few variables, the additional independent variable does not make much contribution.

the measured by the square of the multiple correlation coefficient, R- Square, which is also

called the coefficient of multiple determination.

F test: - The F test is used to test the null hypothesis that the coefficient of multiple

determinations is the population, R-Square is zero. This is equivalent to testing the null

hypothesis Ho: Y = β1=β2=β3= βk = 0. The test statistics has an F distribution with k and (n-

k-10 degree of freedom

Partial F test:- The significance of a partial regression coefficient, β1, of Xi may be tested

using an incremental F statistic. The incremental F statistic is based on the increment in the

explained sum of squares resulting from the addition of the independent variable Xi to the

regression equation after all the other independent variable have been included.

Partial Regression coefficient: - The partial regression coefficient, b1, denote the change in

the predictable value, Y, per unit change in Xa when the other independent variables, X2 to

Xk are held constant.

Data: we have taken depend variable as Foreign Exchange rates

And independent variables is inflation, exports, imports, foreign reserves, interest rates.

End of

Financial

Forex Imports

Year

Foreign reserves Exports of

Exchange Inflation in USD of goods Interest

rates CPI MILLION goods% in % Rates

1975-76 8.4058 -4 2172 20.57 10.27 12.50

1976-77 9.0017 -13.8 3747 19.05 -1.61 12.50

1977-78 8.7625 10.6 5824 10.5 15.65 12.50

1978-79 8.2133 -2.2 7268 7.29 34.9 12.50

1979-80 8.1467 9.1 7361 14.67 26.96 12.50

1980-81 7.8800 14.2 6823 8.03 35.09 13.50

1981-82 8.6926 12.4 4390 2.98 -2.11 13.50

1982-83 9.4924 5.2 4896 9.12 3.12 13.50

1983-84 10.1379 11.3 5649 3.91 0.65 13.50

1984-85 11.3683 0.2 5952 2.03 -5.19 13.50

1985-86 12.3640 4.8 6520 -5.96 10.05 13.50

1986-87 12.6053 4.8 6574 10.06 2.52 13.50

1987-88 12.9552 10 6223 21.43 11.75 13.50

1988-89 13.9147 12.6 4802 12.76 19.21 16.00

1989-90 16.2238 5.4 3962 18.92 3.36 16.00

1990-91 17.4992 7.6 5834 8.98 14.35 16.00

1991-92 22.6890 19.3 9220 -1.14 -24.54 19.00

1992-93 25.9206 12.3 9832 3.3 15.44 17.00

1993-94 31.4439 3.5 19254 20.21 9.96 14.00

1994-95 31.3742 11.9 25186 18.39 34.28 15.00

1995-96 32.4198 10.7 21687 20.32 21.63 16.50

1996-97 35.4280 9.1 26423 5.64 12.09 14.75

1997-98 36.3195 3.4 29367 4.53 4.57 14

1998-99 41.2665 11 32490 -3.87 -7.12 14.5

1999-00 43.0552 4.4 38036 9.46 16.49 14.5

2000-01 44.9401 -0.3 42281 21.07 4.57 15

2001-02 47.1857 1.1 54106 -1.65 -2.82 15.5

2002-03 48.5993 3.2 76100 20.29 14.55 15

2003-04 46.5818 3.9 112959 23.27 24.1 16

2004-05 45.3165 2.6 141514 28.54 48.63 15.5

We have taken foreign exchange rates in relation t the US dollar and for better results we

have taken 30 years data

The Importance of Residual Analysis

Even though most assumptions of multiple regressions cannot be tested explicitly, gross

violations can be detected and should be dealt with appropriately. In particular outliers (i.e.,

extreme cases) can seriously bias the results by "pulling" or "pushing" the regression line in a

particular direction there by leading to biased regression coefficients. Often, excluding just a

single extreme case can yield a completely different set of results.

Model Summary

Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Estimate

1 .981a .963 .954 2.1359351

R - R is the square root of R-Squared and is the correlation between the observed and

predicted values of dependent variable.

exchange rate) which can be explained by the independent variables (Lending Rates,

Exports of goods%, Forex reserves and inflation.

This is an overall measure of the strength of association and does not reflect the

extent to which any particular independent variable is associated with the dependent

variable.

Adjusted R-square - This is an adjustment of the R-squared that penalizes the

addition of extraneous predictors to the model. Adjusted R-squared is computed using

the formula 1 - ((1 - Rsq) ((N - 1) /( N - k - 1)) where k is the number of predictors.

Std. Error of the Estimate - This is also referred to as the root mean squared error.

It is the standard deviation of the error term and the square root of the Mean Square

for the Residuals in the ANOVA table.

ANOVA

Sum of

Model Squares df Mean Square F Sig.

1 Regression 2111.837 4 527.959 115.724 .000a

Residual 82.120 18 4.562

Total 2193.957 22

a. Predictors: Lending Rates, Exports of goods%, Forex reserves and inflation rate

variable, these are the categories we will examine: Regression, Residual, and Total. The Total

variance is partitioned into the variance which can be explained by the independent variables

(Model) and the variance which is not explained by the independent variables (Error).

Sum of Squares - These are the Sum of Squares associated with the three sources of

variance, Total, Model and Residual. The Total variance is partitioned into the variance

which can be explained by the independent variables (Regression) and the variance which is

not explained by the independent variables (Residual).

DF - These are the degrees of freedom associated with the sources of variance. The total

variance has N-1 degrees of freedom. The Regression degrees of freedom correspond to the

number of coefficients estimated minus 1. Including the intercept, there are 4 coefficients, so

the model has 4-1=3 degrees of freedom. The Error degrees of freedom are the DF total

minus the DF model, 22-18 =4.

Mean Square - These are the Mean Squares, the Sum of Squares divided by their respective

DF.

F and Sig. - This is the F-statistic the p-value associated with it. The F-statistic is the Mean

Square (Regression) divided by the Mean Square (Residual): 527.959/ 4.562 = 115.724 is

the p-value is compared to some alpha level in testing the null hypothesis that all of the model

coefficients are 0.

Coefficients

Unstandardized Standardized

Coefficients Coefficients

Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig.

1 (Constant) -27.481 4.414 -6.226 .000

V3 -.188 .081 -.133 -2.334 .031

Forex reserves in USD

.001 .000 .833 17.616 .000

MILLION

Exports of goods% .053 .061 .041 .863 .400

Lending Rates 2.453 .327 .422 7.490 .000

This column shows the predictor variables (Predictors: Lending Rates, Exports of goods%,

Forex reserves and inflation rate ). The first variable (constant) represents the constant, also

referred as the Y intercept, the height of the regression line when it crosses the Y axis. In

other words, this is the predicted value of factors when all other variables are 0.

B - These are the values for the regression equation for predicting the dependent variable

from the independent variable. The regression equation is presented in many different ways,

for example:

Conclusion:

The column of estimates provides the values for b0, b1, b2, b3 and b4 for this equation.

That would be Foreign exchange rate = -27.481 -.188 (CPI) +.001 (Forex reserves) + .053

(Export of goods) + 2.453 (interest rates)

Inflation rate (CPI) - The coefficient for Inflation rate is - .188 so for every unit decrease

in raw material cost is a -.188 unit increase in Foreign Exchange rate is predicted, holding

all other variables constant.

Foreign Exchange Reserves - For every unit increase in Foreign Exchange Reserves we

expect a .001 unit increase in Foreign Exchange rate the holding all other variables constant.

Export of goods - The coefficient for natural gas is .053 So for every unit increase in

Export of goods, we expect an approximately .053 point increase in the Foreign exchange rate

, holding all other variables constant..

Interest rates - For every unit increase in Interest rates we expect a 2.53 unit increase in

Foreign Exchange rate the holding all other variables constant.

Std. Error - These are the standard errors associated with the coefficients

Appendix:

Regression

Variables Entered/Removedb

Variables Variables

Model Entered Removed Method

1 Lending

Rates,

Exports of

goods%,

Forex . Enter

reserves in

USD

MILLION,

V3a

a. All requested variables entered.

b. Dependent Variable: Foreign Exchange rates

Model Summary

Std. Error of the

Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Estimate

a

1 .981 .963 .954 2.1359351

a. Predictors: (Constant), Lending Rates, Exports of goods%, Forex reserves

in USD MILLION, V3

ANOVAb

Sum of Mean

Model Squares df Square F Sig.

1 Regression 2111.837 4 527.959 115.724 .000a

Residual 82.120 18 4.562

Total 2193.957 22

a. Predictors: (Constant), Lending Rates, Exports of goods%, Forex

reserves in USD MILLION, V3

b. Dependent Variable: Foreign Exchange rates

Coefficientsa

Unstandardized Standardized

Coefficients Coefficients

Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig.

1 (Constant) -27.481 4.414 -6.226 .000

V3 -.188 .081 -.133 -2.334 .031

Forex reserves in USD

.001 .000 .833 17.616 .000

MILLION

Exports of goods% .053 .061 .041 .863 .400

Lending Rates 2.453 .327 .422 7.490 .000

a. Dependent Variable: Foreign Exchange rates

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