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( d abundance)

(and b d ) from

f closed

l d

populations

►D =N/A

ffrom kknowledge

l d off A

Methods we won’t

won t cover

► Point

Point--to

to--object

► Nearest neighbor

► Etc

Et

► Typically

used in plant studies

► Assume either

Restrictive assumptions about spatial

distribution to estimate D

D is known–

known– estimating g pattern

p

Line transect

► One or more lines traversed by observer

line and measure distance from line to

detected group

Detection functions

Density

Line Transect

► Distance

► Angle

Key assumptions

► Random sampling

► Animals directly on the transect line (point)

detected with 100% probability

► Animals do not move in response to

observer in a way that permits double

counting

► Distances and angles measured accurately

► Sufficient number of detections to permit

estimation ( 60-

60-80)

In a perfect world

Real world-

world- a fraction are not

d t t d

detected

Some math

► Ifdetection is perfect then estimation is

easy

► Our problem

problem–– determine an “effective area”

=(L*2*half-

=(L*2*half

(L*2*h lf-width)

idth) off detection

d t ti as an

adjustment

More formally

x= (perp)

( ) distance

di t off an individual

i di id l presentt from

f line

li

f1(x)

(x)=distribution

distribution of distances for all individuals present

By Bayes’

Bayes Theorem

f ( x) = w

Wh t we observe

What b

∫

o

g ( w)

g ( 0) 1 1

f ( 0) = f ( 0) = =

w w

μ

∫ g (w)

o

∫ g (w)

o

To get density

ˆf (0) = 1

μ̂

μ

So

n ˆ

f ( 0 )

D=

ˆ

Known

2L

T gett variance

To i given

i

estimates of f(x)

Variance

detectability

Population (counts)

Ways to estimate variance

► Empiricalestimates by replicate transects

(separate estimates of D)

► Jackknife estimator

► If no replicate transects

Poisson or other model assumptions

Program DISTANCE

Program Distance

► Key function + series adjustment

► GOF

Uniform Negative exponential

Half-normal Hazard

Goodness of fit

k

(ni − nπˆ i ) 2

χ =∑

2

i =1 nπˆ i

Confidence intervals

► Normal approximation

► Log

L transformation

t f ti

► Profile likelihood

Not full likelihood methods

Sampling design

► Random

► Stratified random

Sample size

► Sampling effort

Pilot study

estimate D

► Can also calculate CV at a

specified

p maximum effort

1/ 2

⎡ 3 ⎤

CVmin ( Dˆ ) = ⎢ ⎥

⎣ Lmax (n0 / Lo ) ⎦

Example (1)

► Initial

sample of effort 10km

► CV of estimated D =0.2

► Desired

D i d CV=0.1

CV 0 1

► Need total effort of 40km (30km more)

2

⎡ CV ( D) ⎤

ˆ ⎡ 0.2 ⎤

2

L=⎢ ⎥ L0 = ⎢ ⎥ 10 = 40

⎣ CV 0 ⎦ ⎣ 0. 10 ⎦

Example (2)

► Initial

sample of effort 1 km

► Detect n=25

► Desired

D i d CV=0.1

CV 0 1

► Need total effort of 12km (11km more)

3 L0 3 1

L= 2

= 2

= 12

CV0 n0 0.10 25

Can also calculate CV at a

specified

ifi d maximum

i effort

ff t

E

E.g., mostt effort

ff t possible

ibl iis 5k

5km

1/ 2 1/ 2

⎡ 3 ⎤ ⎡ 3 ⎤

CVmin ( Dˆ ) = ⎢ ⎥ =⎢ ⎥ = 0.15

⎣ Lmax (n0 / Lo ) ⎦ ⎣ 5(25 / 1) ⎦

Sample size

► Can also consider the costs of sampling (money,

time, labor,etc.)

L line length vs n replicate lines

Cx = costs

Stratified random sampling

► Lines

es ass

assigned

g ed randomly

a do y to st

strata

ata

► Density

y estimation

Weighted average across strata

► Detection estimation

Pooled

Stratum specific (AIC or LRT)

► Allocation

Proportional

Optimal

p

Experimental design

Randomized to T/C, random within

Components of variance

► Estimates of D vary from experimental unit to unit

because

Actual variation in D (among

g units, treatment)

Sample variation in estimates of D

► Need to separate these

Biological interest is on variation in actual D

Implication for study design

► Variation

i i in

i D – more replication

li i off unitsi

► Sample variation–

variation– more effort at each unit

► We’ll

We ll consider this in detail in lab

Point sampling

Point sampling

► Same basic theory as line transect

► Distances

Di t radial

di l distances

di t from

f point

i t

zero distance))

Sample size

► Effort now k number of sample points

► Initial

I iti l k,

k n

3 k0 3 5

k= 2

= 2

= 60

CV0 n0 0.10 25

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