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P O I SS O N D I S T R I B U T I O N STUDENT NAME

SAQIB ASLAM GANATRA 3881

ROOM NUMBER

Background

For the last 3 months I have been studying and researching on statistics subject. In this course Statistics and inference I want to do something different about Poisson distribution, but collecting information is very difficult and time consuming in the statistics aspects so I decided to do work in team to share each other ideas.

Acknowledgement

My project is based on “Poisson Distribution” is mainly concerned with collecting real life example data. All this has been possible for the generous effort of Sir Shebaz khan (Karachi institute of Economic & Technology) who teaches the course Statistics and inference. My heartiest thanks go to Sir Shebaz khan under whose guidance the entire project was being conducted.

History

The Poisson distribution was developed by the French mathematician Simeon Denis Poisson in 1837. Poisson’s father originally wanted him to become a doctor. After a brief apprenticeship with an uncle, Poisson realized he did not want to be a doctor Poisson went to the École Centrale and later the École Polytechnique in Paris, where he excelled in mathematics, despite having much less formal education than his peers. Poisson impressed his teachers Laplace and Lagrange with his abilities. Unfortunately, the École Polytechnique specialized in geometry, and Poisson could not draw diagrams well. However, his final paper on the theory of equations was so good he was allowed to graduate without taking the final examination. After graduating, Poisson received his first teaching position at the École Polytechnique in Paris, which rarely happened. Poisson did most of his work on ordinary and partial differential equations. He also worked on problems involving physical topics, such as pendulums and sound

Applications

•

The number of deaths by horse kicking in the Prussian army (first application)

• birth defects and genetic mutations

• rare diseases (like Leukemia, but not AIDS because it is infectious and so not independent) - especially in legal cases • car accidents • traffic flow and ideal gap distance • number of typing errors on a page • hairs found in McDonald's hamburgers • spread of an endangered animal in Africa • failure of a machine in one month

The probability distribution of a Poisson random variable X representing the number of successes occurring in a given time interval or a specified region of space is given by the formula:

Where x = 0, 1, 2, 3... , e = 2.71828 (but use your calculator's e button) μ = mean number of successes in the given time interval or region of space

**Mean and Variance of Poisson Distribution
**

If μ is the average number of successes occurring in a given time interval or region in the Poisson distribution, then the mean and the variance of the Poisson distribution are both equal to μ. E(X) = μ and V(X) = σ2 = μ Note: In a Poisson distribution, only one parameter, μ is needed to determine the probability of an event.

**REAL LIFE EXAMPLES IN MEDICAL STATISTICS
**

1. Here’s an example where the Poisson distribution was used in a maternity hospital to work out how many births would be expected during the night. The hospital had 3000 deliveries each year, so if these happened randomly around the clock 1000 deliveries would be expected between the hours of midnight and 8.00 a.m. This is the time when many staff are off duty and it is important to ensure that there will be enough people to cope with the workload on any particular night. The average number of deliveries per night is 1000/365, which is 2.74. From this average rate the probability of delivering 0,1,2, etc babies each night can be calculated using the Poisson distribution. Some probabilities are: P(0) 2.740 e-2.74 / 0! = 0.065 P(1) 2.741 e-2.74 / 1! = 0.177 P(2) 2.742 e-2.74 / 2! = 0.242

P(3) 2.743 e-2.74 / 3! = 0.221 (i) On how many days in the year would 5 or more deliveries be expected? (Ans. 52) (ii) Over the course of one year, what is the greatest number of deliveries expected in any night? (Ans. 8) (iii) Why might the pattern of deliveries not follow a Poisson distribution? (Ans. If deliveries were not random throughout the 24 hours; e.g. if a lot of women had elective caesareans done during the day). Note: In this real life example, deliveries in fact followed the Poisson distribution very closely, and the hospital was able to predict the workload accurately. 2. Just as you have to take your car for an annual MOT test, many doctors believe it is important for people above a certain age to have an annual check-up. Some general practitioners (GPs) in Luton, Bedfordshire, decided to send letters to all their patients aged 35 to 64 years, inviting them to attend a health check at the practice. Of the 2678 patients who received invitations, 2205 attended the health check and 473 did not. Some characteristics of attenders and non-attenders are shown in the table. Attend ed Did not attend Total Nonattenda nce rate (%) 21.0 14.8

Male Female

987 1218

262 211

1249 1429

Age group (yr): 35-44 45-54 55-64 812 732 661 189 143 141 1001 875 802 18.9 16.3 17.6

Smoker Non-smoker

622 1583

208 265

830 1848

25.1 14.3

Obese Not obese

193 1977

61 399

254 2376

24.0 16.8

Diet score: 1 (best) 2 3 4 (worst) 623 533 555 460 88 94 132 151 711 627 687 611 12.4 15.0 19.2 24.7

(i) How would you test whether the difference in attendance rates between different categories of patients was statistically significant? (Ans. Use the chi-squared test). (ii) Which of the differences in the table is statistically significant? (Ans. All significant (p<0.001) except age). (iii) How should the doctors interpret these results? (Ans. In general men, smokers, people who are very overweight, and those with poor diets will be less likely to accept an invitation to a health check than other patients). (iv) How do you think this information was useful to the doctors? (Ans. This study provided evidence that the patients who are less likely to attend a health check are exactly the ones who need the most health care and advice. The doctors realized that it was not enough simply to send invitations to attend a health check, but that they needed to think of more effective ways of reaching patients and encouraging them to take care of their health.)

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PROJECT REPORT
P O I SS O N D I S T R I B U T I O N STUDENT NAME
SAQIB ASLAM GANATRA 3881
ROOM NUMBER
Background
For the last 3 months I have been studying and researching on statistics subject...

PROJECT REPORT

P O I SS O N D I S T R I B U T I O N STUDENT NAME

SAQIB ASLAM GANATRA 3881

ROOM NUMBER

Background

For the last 3 months I have been studying and researching on statistics subject. In this course Statistics and inference I want to do something different about Poisson distribution, but collecting information is very difficult and time consuming in the statistics aspects so I decided to do work in team to share each other ideas.

Acknowledgement

My project is based on “Poisson Di

P O I SS O N D I S T R I B U T I O N STUDENT NAME

SAQIB ASLAM GANATRA 3881

ROOM NUMBER

Background

For the last 3 months I have been studying and researching on statistics subject. In this course Statistics and inference I want to do something different about Poisson distribution, but collecting information is very difficult and time consuming in the statistics aspects so I decided to do work in team to share each other ideas.

Acknowledgement

My project is based on “Poisson Di

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