STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS

Executive Summary
Global Economy
Official data revealed that the United States (U.S) private sector forged ahead in creating jobs in April, a sign the recovery is gaining traction, despite a rise in the unemployment rate to 9.0%. Private businesses added 268,000 jobs in April, encouraging belief that the economy's recovery was on track even as federal and local governments cut spending and payrolls. The economy created a net 244,000 nonfarm jobs last month, far more than expected, with the biggest growth in the service sector. Furthermore, the Labor Department revised upwards job creation figures for February and March to 235,000 and 221,000, respectively. The new data from the department also showed that the country's unemployment rate rose to 9.0% in April from 8.8% in March, an unexpected increase that signaled the challenges facing the government's efforts to kick-start growth in the ailing labor market. Experts had estimated the jobless rate would remain at March's 8.8% after falling for four consecutive months. According to an industry report released during the week, the pace of growth in the U.S. services sector unexpectedly eased to its lowest level since August 2010 in April 2011. The Institute for Supply Management said its services index fell to 52.8 last month from 57.3 in March. The figure was below economists' forecasts of 57.4 for the month of April. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector. According to the reports, new orders index tumbled to its lowest level since December 2009, falling to 52.7 from 64.1,, while employment gauge dipped to 51.9 in March from 53.7 in February. In Canada, Statistics Canada, the country’s statistics” agency revealed that the economy created 58,300 jobs in April, bringing the unemployment rate down to 7.6%, matching the lowest jobless level since the early months of the recession. The agency stated that most of the gains were recorded in the service sector. Although the job increase was dominated by part-timers, there were 17,200 new full-time jobs created in April. April's gains bring the year-over-year increase in employment to 283,000, enabling the recovery of all the fulltime jobs that were lost in the 2008-2009 recession. In the Eurozone, the region’s currency, the euro, retreated from a 17-month peak against the dollar, and a 13-month high against the pound sterling as the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), signaled that Eurozone’s interest rates would remain on hold next month. The single currency had received support in recent weeks as the ECB, in contrast to the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, was seen as being ready to tighten monetary policy further in the coming months in a bid to stem inflationary pressures in the Eurozone. The ECB left rates unchanged at its recent policy meeting, compared to a 25 basis point rise in April. Investors focused on comments from ECB’s President for clues as to future monetary tightening. Ahead of his remarks, forecasts were split as to whether the ECB Chief would signal a move in June or July. In the United Kingdom (U.K), the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted to maintain the official bank rate paid on commercial bank reserves at 0.5%. The Committee also voted to maintain the stock of asset purchases financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at £200 billion. With a slowdown in growth of manufacturing, construction and services, it was widely expected that the rate would be kept at the record low while recovery is still weak. The committee was faced with a difficult choice, which was to either maintain

May 9 - 13, 2011

Greenwich Research Team
Opeyemi Tella opeyemi.tella@greenwichtrustgroup.com Oladipupo Adekanmbi oladipupo.adekanmbi@greenwichtrustgroup.com Olukayode Aladejebi olukayode.aladejebi@greenwichtrustgroup.com Evelyn Taiwo evelyn.taiwo@greenwichtrustgroup.com

Greenwich Trust Limited Plot 1698A Oyin Jolayemi Street P.M.B. 80074 Victoria Island Lagos. Tel: 234-1-2715937 Fax: 234-1-2700613 E-mail: research@greenwichtrustgroup.com Website: www.greenwichtrustgroup.com

Greenwich Stock Recommendations

May 9 - 13, 2011

Executive Summary (Cont’d)
the low interest rate to aid economic growth, or raise the rate to try and counter the high inflation figures. Inflation currently stands at 4%, which is double the bank's target rate. Raising rates takes demand out of the economy and slows down inflation. However, it also increases the cost of borrowing, with fears that this could put the country back into recession. Data from the Customs office showed that France's trade gap narrowed in March to €5.75 billion from €6.37 billion in February. The deficit for March stayed well below the expected shortfall of €6.5 billion. A year ago, the shortfall totaled €4.49 billion, while exports increased to €35.16 billion in March from €34.69 billion in the previous month. Meanwhile, imports fell to €40.91 billion from €41.07 billion in February. The Greek government unveiled a three-year national strategy plan against tax evasion, aiming to raise at least €11.8 billion by 2014. The Greek foreign minister noted that wide-spread tax evasion in Greece is a crime against the country which still has not been solved, although major steps have been taken over the last year and a half. The fight against tax evasion is a significant challenge in the overall national effort launched last year to fix the debt-ridden country's finances. Portugal reached a deal with the European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on a €78 billion 3-year bailout. This is the third Eurozone member to do so after Greece and Ireland. Under the conditions of the loan, the country will be given longer period to reduce its budget deficit targets than previous expectations. The deficit will need to be cut to 5.9 per cent of GDP this year, followed by 4.5 per cent in 2010 and 3 per cent in 2013. This varies from previous targets for 4.6 per cent, followed by 3 per cent and 2 per cent respectively. The figure currently totals 9.1 per cent of the country’s GDP. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced that it would hold its benchmark rate steady at 4.75% despite the recent surge in inflationary data releases. The result was a sudden downturn in Australian dollar (AUD) values across several of its currency pairings. Prices were prevented from sky-rocketing out of control since interconnected costs and values would make such a rise unpalatable to consumers. Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) disclosed that South Africa’s unemployment rate increased to 25% in the first quarter of 2011, from 24% in the final quarter of last year. The number of unemployed grew by 227,000 quarter-on-quarter to 4.36million, while discouraged work-seekers increased by 73,000 in three months of January to March. Employment fell by 14,000 between the fourth quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of 2011, with an increase of 56,000 jobs in the formal nonagriculture sector, a loss of 46,000 jobs in the informal nonfarming sector and a loss of 24, 000 farming jobs. Most of the jobs were lost in the transport sector, which accounted for 34,000 job losses, followed by 25,000 jobs in the construction industry. There has been an increase of 37,000 in the finance sector, 20,000 jobs in manufacturing and 15,000 in the mining industry.
14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00%

Inflation Rates Across Countries (March 2011)

Inflation Rates

Price Movement of Crude Oil (May 3- 6, 2011)
150.00 100.00 50.00 0.00 3-May-11 4-May-11 5-May-11
OPEC Basket

6-May-11

Major World Stock Market Indices (April 27 - 29, 2011)

Index Dow Jones (DJA) S&P 500 Nikkei 225 FTSE 100 GSE Composite Index

Current Value 4,397.05 1,363.61 9,849.74 6,069.90 1,100.38

1 Week Change 3.85% 3.33% 2.69% 1.23% 3.62%

YTD Change 9.02% 8.43% -3.71% 2.88% 10.07%

LA T E S T G LO B A L E C O N O M IC IN D IC A T O R S Q ua t e rly G D P Gro wt h R at e (Q4, 2 0 10 ) 9.80% 8.29% 8.20% 6.50% 3.20% 1 .50% 1 .20% 1 .70%

C o unt ry C hina N ige ria India S inga po re Unit e d Stat es G e rm a ny E uro A re a B rit a in

Int e re s t R ate ( M a r) 4.27% 1 0.00% 7.31 % 0.44% 0.23% 1 9% .1 1 9% .1 0.83%

Inf la t io n R ate ( F e b) 4.90% 1 2.80% 9.30% 5.00% 2.1 0% 2.1 0% 2.40% 4.40%

C urre nt J o ble s s R ate 9.60% NA 1 0.80% 2.20% 8.90% 7.30% 9.90% 8.00%

Domestic Economy
On the local scene, it was revealed that Nigeria’s external reserves failed to sustain the appreciable increase recorded in March, as it advanced marginally by $300 million in April despite the increase in the price of oil in the international market. External reserves stood at $33.5 billion as at April, as against

2

spending for a planned sovereign wealth fund. as the Nigeria Interbank Offer Rates (NIBOR) decreased across all tenors.00 25.63 32.00% 7. We further expect long term investors to continue to take positions in fundamentally viable stocks.00% 11. the CBN governor also indicated he may limit interest-rate increases to help spur lending in the country.200. as against a marginal increase of 0. after it rose to $36.000.00 25.86% 3 . On a Week-on-Week (WoW) basis. He further stated that the decline in the country’s reserves. it remained unchanged at the Bureau de Change and parallel window to close at N156.00 25. Liquidity pressure further eased in the financial system in the week under review. He stated that CBN frontloaded a lot of the increase that people thought they will do gradually over the years.71 per cent at the official window to close at N153.000 50.0000 8.300.BANK CALL RATE 5/6/2011 Nigerian FGN Bond Yield Curve 15. the YTD change in the ASI increased to 2.150.000. spending on the power sector. which are vital to sustain consumer and investor confidence in the economy.350. This resulted in a consequent rise in prices of bonds. 2011 Movement of All Share Index Against Volume Traded (May 3 .10% 6. In a similar development. May 9 .0000 2.00% 9.08 trillion. At the fixed income market.09 per cent recorded in the previous week.000.50% OUTLOOK Investors' level of confidence in the capital market is gradually being restored.00% 3 5 7 10 20 Average Weighted (6/05/11) Average Weighted (29/04/11) Ec o n o m i c I n d i c a t o r s YoY Inf lat ion ( Mar' 11) MPR ( Mar . when it raised its benchmark interest rate by 1 percentage point to 7.000 300.03/$ and by 0.00 24.050.000. bond yields reversed and dipped across most tenors in the week under review amid liquidity pressure brought about by injection from AMCON’s purchase of NPLs from banks. on the back of growing optimism of a successful inauguration ceremony of the newly elected political office holders.03 per cent. in the week under review.Greenwich Stock Recommendations Executive Summary (Cont’d) the $33.0000 10. However.6.0000 4.30/$.24 per cent at the inter-bank forex market to close at N155. each.29% 7.300. We expect increased level of activities in the coming week.09 per cent.250.000 100. The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) closed on a positive note on the last trading session of the week.00% 13.000 250. While the central bank is aware of rising price pressures it also wants to avoid undermining stability in financial markets after using $4 billion to bail out banks in 2009.000 3-May-11 VOLUME INDEX 25.000. Consequently. In another development. although investors may still apply some level of caution. expending of foreign exchange on import of food items such as rice. Ext ernal Reser ves (May 5' 11) GDP Gr owt h Rat e YoY ( Q4.66 8.00 25.00 25. On a Week-on-Week basis.000.000 200.4 billion by mid March.000 150. the Naira depreciated against the dollar by 0. Mallam Sanusi Lamido Sanusi.6.80% 7.00/$.00 25. reducing pressure on the naira.950.00% 3. 2011) 350. the ASI rose by 1.32 per cent) each to close at 25. the CBN Governor.100.0000 5/3/2011 5/4/2011 5/5/2011 INTER. huge amounts spent on petroleum subsidies.46 and N8. This was as a result of liquidity inflow from the purchase of Non Performing Loans (NPL) of banks by the Asset Management Company of Nigeria (AMCON). respectively.14 per cent from the previous week’s figure of 1. 2011) 12.50% P r e v ious 11.13. ' 11) Cur r e nt 12. as well as.0000 6. The All-Share Index (ASI) and the Market Capitalization rose by 32 basis points (0. said that improved oil output and rising oil prices in the international market would contribute to economic growth and help rebuild external reserves.00 6-May-11 INTER-BANK CALL RATE (May 3 .5% in March. as demand for foreign currency eases. 2010) 32.2 billion it recorded at the end of March. when compared to their previous figures. The reserves had grown by $3.000.00 25.000. was partly due to spending to maintain a stable naira currency.00% 5.1 billion in March.

42 1.76 25.60 15.55% 99.96 0.94% 113.1 2.59 8.65% 99.0 0% 10 7.24 1.28 1.94 25.90 0.36% 102.29 13.20% 24.36 1.56 7.71 86.7 148.50 2.86 53.89 0.98 1.0 0% Percen tage Forecast Ach i eved SPECULATIVE BUY Security Current Price Best Entry Price Exit Price % Expected Returns FIRSTINLND INTERCONT PLATINUM WEMABANK OCEANIC AIICO 4 0.52 1.00 6.71 1.33% 102.28% 99.05 5.51% 99.73% 25.44 16. 2011 FORECAST PERFORMANCE FOR LAST WEEK Security Base Price Forecast Week’s High Forecast as a Percentage of Actual GUARANTY ACCESS UACN NAHCO 16.65% 106.75 9.48 5.21 8.87 0.09 38.20 13.1 9.15% MOBIL FIRSTBANK OANDO ZENITHBANK FIDELITYBK NB UBA ASHAKACEM NBC DANGSUGAR IBTC FCMB Percentage Forecast Achieved FCMB IBTC DANGSUGAR NBC ASH AKACEM UBA NB FIDELITYBK ZENITH BANK OAND O FIRSTBANK MOBIL NAHCO UACN ACCESS GUARANTY 86 .00 9.05 7.96 15.Greenwich Stock Recommendations May 9 .60 39.5 9.70 148.52 53.83% 104.06 38.95 37.6 15 2.90% 99.68% 27.70% 100.03% 28.54 2.1 13.23 1.33 1.39 16.00 % 10 0.06 37.60 101.89 37.00 % 93 .2 13.01 38.32 8.19 9.47% .9 24.05 13.05 13.40% 102.65% 98.43 53.76 1.77 149.13.36% 100.80% 103.70 87.60% 22.75 1.30 10.63 7.19 1.73 87.

60% Fund-Tech Fund-Tech Watch List FCMB 7.68 37.13 0.36 9.60 8.27 32.00 32.37 2.68 16. YTD— Year-to-date 5 .45 16.84% 64.09% Fund-Tech Sell List OASISINS CAPHOTEL 0.65 43.60 10.97 15.88 21.40% 45. Recommendation using ‘fundamental’ is based on analysis of the company’s financial statements.Greenwich Stock Recommendations SUMMARY May 9 .25 25.63 6. CAPM– Capital Asset Pricing Model.40 26.66 36.95 26.82 53.99 13.43 118. Recommendation using ’technical’ is based on analyzing the stock price and volume trends.30 9.16 63.20 39.80% 43.78 101.76 53.59% 41.24 13.93 19.25 2.01 52.44 2. 2011 Exit Price Security Current (AMCON Hurdle 5-10 Trading Price (N) Rate) Days Forecast Expected Returns (Using AMCON’s Exit Price) Rationale Buy List UBA OANDO ACCESS NAHCO UACN PZ GUARANTY FIDELITYBK NBC FIRSTBANK ZENITHBANK 6.15 97.41% 41.14 13.86 15.74 13.66% 88.27 39.57% 61.70% 65.02% 56.76 15.96 8.89 53. See the Appendix for definitions of the technical tools used in this report.44 3.87 7.30 25.83% 61.64 Fund-Tech Fund-Tech Note: The Exit price derived for Oasisins using the AMCON Methodology is below the nominal value of the share.13.53% 46.28 36.29% Fund-Tech Fund-Tech Fund-Tech Fund-Tech Fund-Tech Fund-Tech Fund-Tech Fund-Tech Fund-Tech Fund-Tech Fund-Tech Hold List DANGSUGAR ASHAKACEM 13.50 3.31 14.

The fair value derived by the weighted average of our valuation models is N7.74% 598.375.66% discount at the current market price. This represents 118.Jan '10 . It also has established 131 international points of presence outside Nigeria. Total Assets also dropped by 7.00 150. and it was the first Nigerian bank to introduce the Nigerian Government Bond Index.693.0 00 0. Profit After Tax (PAT) dipped significantly by 94. dynamic and innovative management team.334.73 billion in its full year ended 2009.0 00 0. -24. the bank’s full year result was not as impressive as the preceding year.40 3.73 The fair price is skewed towards the Historical Dividend Model.0 00 1. 2011 NSE All-Share Index Vs UBA. Our technical analysis shows that the 100-day MA is slightly above the 200 day MA.672.70 7. (UBA Rebased) UNITED BANK FOR AFRICA PLC Current Price Year High Year Low EPS P/E Ratio Outstanding Shares Dividend Yield Profit After Tax '000 (Full Year) Year End 6. at the current market price of N6. signifying a growth of 45.186. This indicates that the stock is attractive for long term investment. UBA is trading at a discount of 14.0 00 2.694 0.8 29.94 per cent and 74. However in 2010.71 5.9 6% 4.00 May 9 .38 billion from N40. Gross Earnings and PAT declined by 24.73 per share.4 5% -3. respectively. respectively.0 00 2.3 2% 179.80 12.37% and the stock is more volatile that the NSE with a beta of 1.18% to N2.52 32.4 8% UNITED BANK FOR AFRICA Valuation Weight Estimated Value Earnings Basis Forward Earnings Basis Dividend Basis Price to Book Basis Estimated Fair Value 10 30 30 30 100 10.6 17. The Bank also maintains strong strategic alliances with international organizations for synergy benefits.9 4% -74. However.60 0.Date R² = 0.96%.8 2% -66.9 6% 186.78.83 billion.00 0.Greenwich Stock Recommendations UBA PLC The Bank has 8 direct and 3 indirect subsidiaries.0 00 0.76.45% and 3. The Bank is well diversified in the financial services sector and is poised to take full advantage of the universal banking environment.58 billion recorded in the previous year. 100. The graph of the stock price against the NSE ASI at the top right corner also show that stock is currently below the signal line.88%.548. UBA’s gross earnings stood at N246. Also.548.0 00 1. This was as a result of huge write-offs as directed by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).43. Therefore.02 365. and it seems that the price may witness an upward movement in the next couple of trading sessions.85%.45% from N1.3 1% CH.725. The Net Profit Margin and Shareholders’ funds also dipped by 66.0 4% 2009 ('000) 246.13.28 billion in 2009.54% 0. The stock’s expected one-year return estimated with the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is 18. In 2009. we expect the stock to trend towards AMCON’s transfer price of N14.4 26.82 per cent.76 11. Dividend yield was also below a full integer as it stood at 0. 6 . The oneyear Standard Deviation of the stock price stood at 2.00 4-Jan-10 200. we are upgrading our recommendation on the stock to BUY.35%. It has an experienced. This shows that UBA is attractive for long term investment.6 96.0 00 598.99 7.00 50.5196 4-Jul-10 NSE Reb ased UBA Rebased 4-Jan-11 Po ly.2 81.3 3% 0.000 September Turnover Net Profit After Tax Net Pofit Margin Sharehold ers' Funds Total Assets ROSH ROA UNITED BANK FOR AFRICA PLC 2010 ('000) 185.49% from N169.99 billion in 2008 to N1.

10%.49% 42. international supply.37 billion.60 78.3 5% 53.18% recorded last week.569 5.37 per cent to N14.0 00 3.00 100. The Company commenced the execution of its long-term strategy with a Rights Issue of 301.000 19. The Company’s audited result for the financial year 2010 showed that the company increased its Profit After Tax (PAT) by 42.13.Jan '10 .86 billion in 2009 to N378.79% 95. Oando is the first Nigerian company to accomplish a cross-border listing on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) in South Africa.57% 78. 12.Date Oando Plc (formerly Unipetrol Nigeria Plc) is the second largest oil marketing company by revenue in Nigeria. production and power initiatives.3 8% 2 00 9 ('0 00 ) 336.694. massive modernization and large number of trucking fleet.374. However. from 2.14 in the medium term.00 R² = 0.000 9.60.711. and it is envisioned to become a leader in the African energy sector.00 150. The Group has strategic investments in a range of energy companies across West Africa.49 per cent from N336. The Company is an integrated energy solutions provider as it operations scale across gas.000 3.35 8. (Oando Rebased) 4-Jan-11 Oando Rebased OANDO PLC Current Price Year High Year Low EPS P/E Ratio Outstanding Shares Dividend Yield Profit After Tax '000 (Full Year) Year End OANDO PLC 20 10 ('0 00 ) 378. We therefore maintain our recommendation on the stock as BUY.00 A final fair value of N87.00k and a bonus of one ordinary share for every four held as at 29th of April 2011. 7 .90 149.60 6.24 87. across the country.00 using the company’s recently released full year result and after adjustment for bonus issue and dividend payment indicates that Oando is trading at a discount of 62. significant pump deployment and forecourt improvement. compared to N10.18% Turnover Net Profit After Tax Net Profit Margin Shareholders' Funds Net Assets ROSH RONA OANDO PLC Valuation Weight Estimated Value Earnings Basis Forward Earnings Basis Dividend Basis Price to Book Basis Estimated Fair Value 30 10 30 30 100 43.0 00 14. Turnover for the year also grew by 12.374.37% 26.004. The Board of Directors of the company proposed a dividend of N3.859. The Company is currently incubating exploration. Oando’s drive into the refinery business provides an advantage for further improving and sustaining earnings growth over the medium-term.930.48 76.000 10.93 billion in 2010. the stock may likely rally to a price of N101.10 billion recorded in the corresponding period in 2009.000 December CH. depicting a discount of 44. given the one year expected return of 15. The technical analysis of Oando indicates that the stock has become more attractive for long term investors.05 62.319. The estimated one-year Standard Deviation of the stock price stood at 2. The stock has a relatively high long term return prospect. The company has an upgraded terminal operations. 200. as the 100-day MA is trading above the 200-day MA.44 2.Greenwich Stock Recommendations OANDO PLC May 9 .15% estimated with the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM).00% 53.60% 14.5268 0.262. The dividend yield stood at 5. delivering world-class services across the African continent. trading and energy services to its petroleum marketing business.31%.50k each at N70 per share to rank pari passu with the existing share capital of the company.096.00 4-Jan-10 4-Jul-10 NSE Rebased Poly.97 56.00 50.60% at the current price of N53. 2011 NSE All-Share Index Vs OANDO.49% from its AMCON’s hurdle rate.876 Ordinary Shares of N0.

84% growth in the medium term.30 6.03. with consistent growth in all key performance indicators over the past 7 years.980. (Access Rebased) A CC ESS BA NK PLC Current Price Year High Year Low EPS P/E Ratio Outstanding Shares Dividend Yield Profit After Tax '000 (Full Year) Year End 8.17 billion.75% at the current market price of N8. The return prospect of the stock estimated with the oneyear Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is 16. Furthermore.13. Total assets increased by 16 per cent from N694 billion in 2009 to N805 billion in 2010.048 693. to a profit of N11.14 billion in 2010. it operations are technology driven and it has a high quality of branding and marketing expertise.346. The Bank is well positioned in a high growth market. In the bank’s 2010 full year report. 2011 NSE All-Share Index Vs ACCESS.17% 16.14% at the end of 2010.63 13. and in eight other African countries.26% in 2009 to 6.03 With the recently released full year report. The Bank’s profitability index measured by Return on Asset (ROA) increased to 1.01.30 11.10 8.25 per cent from N84.582) -4.61% 11.95% 4.563 December Turnover Net Profit After Tax Net Pofit Margin Shareholders' Equity Total Assets ROSH ROA ACCESS BANK PLC 2010 FY 91.563 12. from N3. Assets and Contingents in excess of N850 billion.98 billion in 2009 to N91. indicating that the stock is trading at a discount of 44.00 May 9 .50% 2009 (9 M ONTHS) 84. the bank’s gross earnings increased by 7. We therefore maintain our recommendation on Access Bank as LONG TERM BUY.00 100.19 billion recorded in 2009 due to provision for bad loans in 2009.24 billion in 2010. This shows that the stock has become more attractive for long term investment. The Profit After Tax (PAT) also surged by 368 per cent from a loss of N4.457 804.0154 50. the stock seems to be attractive for short term investors as the 5-day MA is approaching the 10day MA. The bank declared a dividend per share of N0.772 6.82% CH.0 64 11.142.67% recorded last week.76.50% in 2010 from –0. The Bank has undergone a transformation process which has positively impacted its every area of business and propelled it into one of Nigeria's leading banks.30. Using AMCON’s valuation methodology. The Bank has an experienced and aggressive management team.54% in 2010.Date R² = 0. indicating a 65.554 (4.Greenwich Stock Recommendations ACCESS BANK PLC Access Bank operates through a network of 130 branches located in all major commercial centers and cities across Nigeria.26% -0. and the Return on Equity (ROE) increased from – 4. as it is geared towards developing a world class retail banking franchise in Nigeria. the graph of the stock price against the NSE ASI at the top right corner shows that the stock price is currently trading below the signal line.00% ACCESS BANK PLC Valuation Weight Estimated Value Earnings Basis Forward Earnings Basis Dividend Basis Price to Book Basis Estimated Fair Value 10 30 30 30 100 13.14 0. recording a dividend yield of 3. the market price may likely oscillate around the proposed transfer price of N13.783.80%.94% 168.251.00 0.194.479 3.64% from 2.07% 349.99 billion recorded in the same period in 2010.823.46 14.00 4-Jan-10 4-Jul-10 4-Jan-11 NSE Rebased Access Rebased Poly. and a deposit base in excess of N450 billion.94% at the current market price of N8. 7.82 12.938 -4. 150.20 17. Technically. It acquired Capital Bank and Marina Bank during the 2005 Banking Reform and was one of the first banks to completely integrate its operations with the acquired banks. with Shareholders’ Funds in excess of N185billion. The one year standard deviation of the stock declined to 2.61 14.30k in the year ended December 2010. 8 .3 4% 175. Thus a price rally may soon be witnessed. The bank’s result for the first quarter of 2011 saw PAT stand at N4.888.25% 368.Jan '10 . the weighted average valuation of the stock is N12.244.244. The Bank’s smoothed annualized return using the 5-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) stood at 16.370.82% in 2009.54% 1.

We therefore maintain our recommendation on the stock as LONG TERM BUY.9 88.2 75 589.10% 12. Given that the one year return prospect of the stock. as a way of creating alternative route of income generation and reducing dependence on ground handling income.Jan '10 .57%. and is ranked as a top industry player in the sector. 1979 as a private limited company and converted to a public limited company on August 4.00 200.00 0.750 4. when compared to the previous year’s dividend of N0.12% 4. the company declared a dividend of N0.43 billion in 2009. Technically. and the Return on Average Asset (ROAA) decreased from 16. as the 100-day MA has crossed over and is now trading above the 200-day MA.71% during the year under review.9 10 18.10%.75 8.Greenwich Stock Recommendations May 9 . from 2.96% in 2008 to 14.20 11.984 5.247.18% in 2008.00 100. the company’s profitability index measured by Return on Average Equity (ROAE) decreased to 27.Date R² = 0. we expect the stock to trend towards AMCON’s transfer price of N15.9 29. In order to remain solidly afloat in the midst of the emerging competitions from new entrants into the aviation ground handling sector.1159 50. This suggests that the stock may not be attractive for speculative trading.230.14% 14.08 1.253 46.02 10. when compared to the same period in 2008.13.32 10.6 99.636 4.00 4-Jan-10 NSE Rebased 4-Jul-10 NAHCO Rebased 4-Jan-11 Po ly.01 9. the stock remains attractive for long term investors.00 150.11% 21.48% 148.2 16. the company has commenced the process of diversifying its business. 2005.84 1.40 13.0 35 802.382 27.15k.00% 36.54% at the current market price of N9.35% 1.661.09%.85 A weighted average of the valuation models gave a final fair price of N13.86 24. 21. the stock is attractive for long term investments. 250.20.12%. as estimated with the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) stood at 17. 9 .85. Despite the challenges faced in the business environment during the year under review.334 December Turnover Net Profit After Tax Net Pofit Margin Sharehold ers' Funds Total Assets ROSH ROA NAHCO PLC 2009 ('000) 4. Meanwhile.16 in the medium term.64% recorded last week.49% Valuation Weight Estimated Value Earnings Basis Forward Earnings Basis Dividend Basis Price to Book Basis Estimated Fair Value 10 20 30 40 100 17.18% 16.83% discount at the current market price. The company operates in the Airline Services Sector.00 NSE All-Share Index Vs NAHCO.45k per share. Net Profit Margin also rose from 16.430.66 billion the previous year to N4. This seems to indicate that NAHCO Plc is undervalued by 50.30k.9 50 16.11% to 18. the company’s turnover increased from N3. Profit After Tax increased significantly by 36.11% 1. The graph of the stock price against the NSE ASI at the top right corner shows that the price is slightly above the signal line. Also.14% in 2009 from 46. This represents 64. 2011 NAHCO PLC NAHCO was incorporated on December 6. ( NAHCO Rebased) NAHCO PLC Current Price Year High Year Low EPS P/E Ratio Outstanding Shares Dividend Yield Profit After Tax '000 (Full Year) Year End 9.96% CH.71% NAHCO PLC 2008 ('000) 3. rising from N589 million to N802 million. However. an increase of N0.468. The Standard Deviation of the stock price reduced to 2. This indicates that the stock volatility decreased during the week.

In 2008. under the UNICO Closed Pension Fund Administrator (CPFA) Limited. a Research and Business Information Company in Nigeria.40 per cent to N52. the Turnover in the audited result of the Company for 2010 dropped by 7.0 00 10. with diverse business portfolios in UACN Property Development Company Plc.495. The Company also has interests in CAP Plc. respectively.31 billion.8 8% 8.60% 46.000 4.720.40% 35.587. we expect market vagaries to push the stock price to N63.0 00 5. UAC operates with good cash flow.130 7.450.444 4-Jul-10 NSE Rebased UACN Rebased 4-Jan-11 Poly.Greenwich Stock Recommendations UAC OF NIGERIA PLC UAC Nigeria Plc was incorporated on April 22. 10 .740 94.51 15. and a bonus of one ordinary share for every four ordinary shares held as at May 20. UAC was licensed by the National Pension Commission (PENCOM) to operate a Closed Pension Fund.77%. We therefore maintain our recommendation on the stock as LONG TERM BUY.9 63.0 4% 5. representing 61. which impacted negatively on the corporate earnings in 2010. 2011. respectively.39 per cent.01.00 100. but higher than the market’s 0.11 A fair value derived by the weighted average of the valuation models was N47.600.44% 1. The Company is built on integrity and high standards.019.00 39.323 2.00 150.10k per share.019. -7..57% discount from AMCON’s transfer price.00 4-Jan-10 May 9 . Meanwhile. (UACN Rebased) UAC OF NIGERIA PLC Current Price Year High Year Low EPS P/E Ratio Outstanding Shares Dividend Yield Profit After Tax '000 (Full Year) Year End 39. indicating that the stock may be suitable for long term investors.Jan '10 . Spring Waters Nigeria Plc.13. The Total Assets and Shareholder’s fund also increased by 8.11% 44. from 2.45% recorded last week.35 2.60 47.80% Valuation Weight Estimated Value Earnings Basis Forward Earnings Basis Dividend Basis Price to Book Basis Estimated Fair Value 10 30 30 30 100 24.4 2% 45.39% 8.60 per cent and 46.00 0. the Directors of the Company declared a dividend of N1.000 17. Also. Grand Cereals and Oil Mills Limited (GCOML) and Opticom Leasing Company Limited.82%.41%.Date R² = 0. which indicates that UACN is trading at a significant discount of 20.55% UAC OF NIGERIA PLC 2009 ('000) 56.66 42.79%. Our technical analysis shows that the 100-day MA is moving above the 200-day MA. and has since remained a foremost private enterprise in Nigeria. 2011 NSE All-Share Index Vs UACN.53 1.11 per share. The one-year Standard Deviation of the stock price reduced to 2.127 December Turnover Net Profit After Tax Net Pofit Margin Sharehold ers' Funds Total Assets ROSH ROA UAC OF NIGERIA PLC 2010 ('000) 52.0 88.313.82% 4. 200. low leverage and adequate working capital.92 27.44 per cent.90 31.80 per cent and 1. The one year return prospect of the stock as estimated with the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is 15.00 50. The dividend yield at the current market price is2. UAC Registrars Limited and General Motors (GM) Nigeria Limited. The Company has a very strong financial base.46 78.000 12.3 70.000 102.88%.54% CH. Despite the challenging business environment and declining aggregate demand. 1931. The profit after Tax and Net Profit Margin (NPM) rose by 35. and is rated “Aa” by Augusto & Co. and high capability to meet its obligations at all times.

02% from AMCON’s transfer price. To enable it deliver developed leading brands quickly and efficiently for the markets.00 100.Greenwich Stock Recommendations PZ CUSSONS PLC PZ Industries is a well-diversified company With over 100 years' experience of trading in Africa and vast knowledge of local markets including the consumer base it developed over time.19 40.68 19. Profit after Tax increased by 44. electronic appliances and the wholesale distribution of general merchandise.13% 6.59 billion in 2009 to N5.8 15.95 billion in 2011. The board of directors recommended a dividend of 86k per Share.79% 8. 11 . In the company’s recently Q3 result.9 00 19. PZ Cussons operates in selected markets that have the potential for future growth.00 140.00 0.2 6% 114.8 20 180.330. which is significantly higher than the market’s 0.500 6. The one-year standard deviation of the stock price is 2. The company's electronic products include refrigerators.70% from N3.3 10 13.381.0 90 15.8 20 8. ( P Z Reb ased ) PZ CUSSONS NIGERIA PLC Current Price Year High Year Low EPS P/E Ratio Outstanding Shares Dividend Yield Profit After Tax '000 (Full Year) Year End 32.33 billion in 2010. Profit after Tax increased by 5.537.38% YTD.751. detergents.45. the company has created a world class supply chain networks with a great team of people who are aligned with the company’s values and drive plans for growth.3 34. cosmetics. The Company operates across a large scale of industries including the manufacturing and sale of consumer products.25% from N166.58% from the market price of N32.34 3. 11.00 80.13.15 billion in 2010 to N44.8 20 190.99%.75 billion in 2010. A final fair value derived by the weighted average of the valuation models was N38. indicating a discount of 18. This indicates that the stock is attractive for long term investment. 2011 NSE All-Share Index Vs PZ . pharmaceuticals and confectionery items. Turnover increased by 1.Jan '10 .592.48 Our technical analysis shows that the 100-day MA moved above the 200 day MA.25 in the medium term.79% from N44. representing 61. freezers.00 120.636 2.96 billion in 2009 to N185.76% CH.00 1.64.00 4-Jan-10 May 9 . Asia and Europe.00 20. The Company’s audited result for the May 2010 shows that the Turnover increased by 11. both in mature and emerging markets all over Africa.2 5% 44.00 160.45 33.48 per share.Date R² = 0.2 7% 2009 ('000) 166.60 30.00 60.8 1% PZ CUSSONS NIGERIA PLC Valuation Weight Estimated Value Earnings Basis Forward Earnings Basis Dividend Basis Price to Book Basis Estimated Fair Value 10 30 30 30 100 27.20 38.77% 30.89 billion in 2011.82 36. We therefore revise our recommendation on the stock to BUY. 180.00 40.77% from N10. We also expect the share price to oscillate around N52.77% 5. Its consumer products line includes such items as soaps.6 85. indicating a “buy” signal for long term investment. The beta of the stock is 0.21 42.6598 4-Jul-10 NSE Reb ased PZ Reb ased 4-Jan-11 P o ly. and the CAPM one year expected return of the stock is 12.3 4% 107.25%.65% 5.0 20 10.960.176.900 May Turnover Net Profit After Tax Net Pofit Margin Sharehold ers' Funds Total Assets ROSH ROA PZ CUSSONS NIGERIA PLC 2010 ('000) 185.217.70% 11. air conditioners and plastic containers. which has resulted in a strong portfolio of local brands.68 billion in 2010 to N3.

37 21.0 02. (Guaranty Rebased) Current Price Year High Year Low EPS P/E Ratio Outstanding Shares Dividend Yield Profit After Tax '000 (Full Year) Year End 16.Greenwich Stock Recommendations GTBANK PLC Guaranty Trust Bank Plc has built up an impressive corporate image for itself as a strong growth.69 billion in 2009 to N37. However.66% 14.0 00 162. Meanwhile. taking total investments by international finance institutions in the Bank to over $400million. as the price has been adjusted for the recent corporate actions. -5.43% from 2.52 5.58 28.55 billion in 2009 to N153. dependable and high performance institution.72% GUARANTY TRUST BANK PLC CH. The issue has been listed on the London Stock Exchange. 12 .718 18. 2011 NSE All-Share Index Vs GUARANTY. The GDR.00 4-Jan-10 NSE Rebased 4-Jul-10 Guaranty Rebased 4-Jan-11 Poly. 200. the Bank signed an asset management joint venture agreement with Morgan Stanley Investment Management to meet part of the requirements for managing portions of Nigeria’s external reserves.843 24. The Bank floated a $350million Eurobond issue which recorded a substantial oversubscription.07% 69. We therefore our BUY recommendation on the stock.64 GTBank is currently trading at a discount of 33.15% 37.25.916. it has established itself among the most efficient and profitable banks in the industry.00 0. In 2006/2007 financial year.32% 3.67 32. signifying long term return prospects for this stock.0 00 23. The Bank recently released full year result indicated that its gross earnings declined by 5.71 billion recorded in the same period in 2010.06% 9.30 12. The bank’s result for the first quarter of 2011 saw PAT stand at an impressive figure of N16.4 18 37. our technical analysis using Moving Averages (MAs) indicates that the stock is becoming more attractive for short and long term investors.57% 210.916. The beta of the stock is 1. we expect market vagaries to push the stock price to N25. $500m from international investors by selling Global Depositary Receipts (GDR) and the rest from Nigerians.000 December Turnover Net Profit After Tax Net Pofit Margin Sharehold ers' Funds Total Assets ROSH ROA GUARANTY TRUST BANK PLC Dec.91 billion in 2010.152.32% 60.00 100.9 08. customer friendly. the Bank received a credit line of $40million from African Development Bank.07. Similarly.25.49 29. Profit After Tax (PAT) increased by 60. and the long term return prospect of the stock estimated using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is 17.000 1.2 45. respectively.46% recorded in the previous week.8 1% 13.22 billion. the price line appears to be below the trend line. This suggests that the stock price may rally in the next couple of trading days.13. Growing at a strong pace over the years.503.25 20.17%.8 26. The Bank is associated with high levels of professionalism and has a reputation for high quality service delivery.07 per cent from N23. Also in the same period.00 May 9 . The price trend which has been relatively stable may rise. At the current market price of N16. which was fully subscribed has also been listed on the London Stock Exchange.50 18. 2009 ('000) 153.46% Valuation Weight Estimated Value Income C apitalization Model Earnings Model Discounted Cashflow (DC F) Dividend Model Price to Book Basis Estimated Fair Value 10 20 20 30 20 100 26. representing a discount of 56.16 14. the Bank raised $750m to fund its growth programmes.550. from N10.Date R² = 0.51% 2.18%. 2010 ('000) Dec.6 4% 14.Jan '10 .26 1.0843 50.92 billion in 2010.0 06.00 150.6 86. as the 5-day and 100-day trend lines are above the 10-day and 200-day line.000 192.928 1.32 per cent from N162. at the current market price of N16.146. From the graph of the stock price against the NSE ASI at the top right corner.209 6. The one-year Standard Deviation of the stock price decreased to 2.482.44.53% from AMCON’s transfer price.

London. London and New York.691.25 3. indicating a growth of 61. excluding the dividend discount model indicates that the stock is underpriced. as against N34. The Bank has international access to correspondent banking. Afri-eximbank Cairo.71 2.000 10.000 4.21 12.000 1.26% 6. The Bank is ranked amongst the top 10 in the Nigerian banking industry.048.000 435. Profit After Tax surged by 292. The one year Standard Deviation of the stock price reduced to 2. Fidelity Bank has partnership with various off-shore institutions. with presence in the major cities and commercial centers of the country. We therefore maintain a BUY recommendation on Fidelity Bank Plc.000 1.40% from AMCON’s hurdle rate.716. SCB.83% to 6. UK Ltd. 61. US Ex-im Bank. 2011 FIDELITY BANK PLC The current enlarged Fidelity Bank was a result of the merger with the former FSB International Bank Plc and Manny Bank Plc (under the Fidelity brand name) in December 2005 during the consolidation era.10% 10. depicting a discount of 46. HSBC. Commerce Bank.89 in the short to medium term.10% 142.48% 130.38 All our fundamental valuation models.55% Valuation Weight Estimated Value Earnings Basis Forward Earnings Basis Dividend Basis Price to Book Basis Estimated Fair Value 10 30 30 30 100 3. 2010 indicated a turnover decline of 31. as the 100-day MA is now above the 200-day MA.052. The Bank has an experienced and stable management team.45% 292. which suggests that the stock is attractive for long term investment.63 0. The stock may likely rally to a price of N3.94% 0. The expected one year Return of the stock as estimated with the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is 16.105.62 28. reputed for integrity and professionalism. has a leverage on its pedigree in its structures and service offerings for a retail populace.45 per cent. Net Profit Margin (NPM) declined from 18.00 4-Jan-10 NSE Rebased P oly. However.89% 136. N. (Fid elit ybk Reb ased) 4-Jul-10 4-Jan-11 Fidelityb k Rebased FIDELITY BANK PLC Current Price Year High Year Low EPS P/E Ratio Outstanding Shares Dividend Yield Profit After Tax '000 (Full Year) Year End 2.A.05 billion. having operated as an investment bank for 11 years.13. USAID. FBN Bank.62%. Our technical analysis seems to indicate that the stock price trend strengthened in the week under review.89 3. 13 .666. from 2. etc.87% 4. credit and other relationships with these multinationals and international financial organizations.67% recorded last week. The audited result of the Bank for the year ended December 31.1264 50.000 4.20 2. The graph of the stock price against the NSE ASI at the top right corner also show that stock is currently below the signal line.00 R² = 0.797. Frankfurt. 150. The Bank’s Q3 result ended September 30.56 billion in 2009 to N6. but Profit After Tax increased by 5.557.000 December Turnover Net Profit After Tax Net Pofit Margin Sharehold ers' Funds Total Assets ROSH ROA FIDELITY BANK PLC 2010 ('000) 56.93%.614.11 billion in 2010.10 per cent from N1.000 481. Egypt.58% 1.105.000 6. 2010 showed a turnover of N56. The Bank.023 5. ABSA South Africa.90 3.50%.33% FIDELITY BANK PLC 2009 ('000) 34. Citibank. confirmation lines.97 per cent.Greenwich Stock Recommendations May 9 .00 0. and it seems that the price may witness an upward movement in the next couple of trading sessions.51 per cent.48% CH.72 billion in the previous year.974.66 3.Jan '10 Date 100. such as ANZ London.00 NSE All-Share Index Vs FIDELITYBK .

6 95 3. 2011 NSE All-Share Index Vs NBC .72% 29.8 59.61 per cent to 66.53% 36. The beta of the stock price stood at 0.264 December Turnover Net Profit After Tax Net Pofit Margin Sharehold ers' Funds Total Assets ROSH ROA NIGERIAN BOTTLING COM PANY PLC 2009 ('000) 2008 ('000) 90.8 8% 8. Despite the challenging business environment in 2009.0 80.209 11.96% 4.888.03 2.99. NBC recorded a growth of 12.00 100.07 41.72. the Company’s shares would be delisted from the NSE Daily Official List. as the weighted average of all the valuation metrics produced a final fair price of N48.966 66. Given that the one year return prospect of the stock. 14 . 200. production capacity has grown over the years and it presently has 13 bottling facilities and over 80 distribution warehouses located across the country. (NBC Reb ased ) 4-Jan-11 NBC Rebased NIGERIA N BOTTLIN G C OM PA NY PLC Current Price Year High Year Low EPS P/E Ratio Outstanding Shares Dividend Yield Profit After Tax '000 (Full Year) Year End 36.00 150.6 1% Valuation Weight Estimated Value Earnings Basis Forward Earnings Basis Dividend Basis Price to Book Basis Estimated Fair Value 10 20 30 40 100 34. The company is part of the Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling company (CCHBC).37 billion in 2009 while the Profit After Tax (PAT) increased by 32.9 81 80. which is significantly higher than the market’s 0.42 15.2 0% 2.G. which currently operates in 28 countries.00 0.3 billion unit cases of beverage annually. 12.26 1.27%.109 2.0 13. which is 16.89 35. and a cash compensation of N43. with about 1.35% 3.38 per cent.25% return from the current market price. one of The Coca-Cola Company’s largest anchor bottlers worldwide.064 21. The year-todate Standard Deviation of the stock price is 2. serving 540 million consumers and selling over 1.19% 19. when compared to the previous year and total assets increased by 27.694 52.195.88%.5214 50.Date R² = 0.781. as estimated with the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is 15.39% NIGERIAN BOTTLING COMPANY PLC CH.24%. Consequently.24% 27. such that the company would become a wholly owned subsidiary of Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Company SA.38% 17. Leventis Group with the franchise to bottle and sell Coca-Cola products in Nigeria.00 4-Jan-10 4-Jul-10 NSE Reb ased P oly.Greenwich Stock Recommendations NIGERIAN BOTTLING COMPANY PLC The Nigerian Bottling Company Plc (NBC) was incorporated in November 1951. Lagos.00 per share as cash compensation to minority shareholders.733.50.3 72.8 billion bottles sold per year.71% undervalued at the current market price of N36. NBC Plc is currently the largest bottler of non-alcoholic beverages in the country and the second largest market in Africa in terms of sales volume.00 May 9 .70 73. Since production began in 1953 at a bottling facility in Ebute-Metta.99 41.82 48. The Nigerian Bottling Company has informed the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) of a proposed scheme of arrangement between the company and its members to cancel part of its share capital.71 16.13. we expect the market price to oscillate around the proposed transfer price of N43.181. The fair value notwithstanding.72 The stock is 31.63% 32.172. as a subsidiary of A.859 1. The final value is tilted significantly towards the Price to Book Model.Jan '10 .00 (Forty-three Naira Only) per share would be paid to shareholders for cancellation of the Shares of the company owned by the minority shareholders. We therefore recommend the stock as HOLD.63 per cent in its turnover.688 2. the stock is relatively attractive for long term investment.308.

It also has offices in Johannesburg and Beijing.12 12.29 billion in 2009 to N230. given that the one-year Standard Deviation of the stock price decreased to 2.0 00 12. gives the bank access to large market share.6 06. given an estimated weighted average final fair price of N20.Jan '10 .358 4.4 05.13.0 00 33. It’s experienced. The bank’s result for the first quarter of 2011 saw PAT grow to N12.4 11. and cheap funds.54 32.8 6% CH.6 9% Turnover Net Profit After Tax Net Pofit Margin Sharehold ers' Funds Total Assets ROSH ROA FIRST BANK OF NIGERIA PLC Valuation Weight Estimated Value Earnings Basis Forward Earnings Basis Dividend Basis Price to Book Basis Estimated Fair Value 10 30 30 30 100 15.82 1. dynamic and competent management team.3 05.57 billion recorded in 2009.61 billion in 2010. In the bank’s 2010 Full Year Report.6 2% 0. 150.76% 337.0 00 2.34 billion recorded in the same period in 2010.9 7% 0.8 6% 1.9 5% 14.Date 100.Greenwich Stock Recommendations FIRST BANK OF NIGERIA PLC First Bank of Nigeria Plc (FBN) offers commercial banking services and a variety of other financial services through its subsidiaries.09 7. given an expected one year return of 17.632. The Bank is quoted on the Nigerian Stock Exchange and currently has an unlisted Global Depository Receipt (GDR) Programme.18 18.0 00 14.41 billion at the end of 2010.00 May 9 .24 in the week under review. gross earnings rose by 5.8 2% 151.38% recorded last week. The stock is also attractive for long term investment. (Firstbank Rebased) FIRST BAN K OF NIGERIA PLC Current Price Year High Year Low EPS P/E Ratio Outstanding Shares Dividend Yield Profit After Tax '000 (Full Year) Year End FIRST BANK OF NIGERIA PLC 2010 ('000) 230.9 14.6 26. FBN Insurance Brokers Limited and FBN Bank (UK) Limited. 5.56 derived from all the valuation models.0 00 9.0 00 5. as the stock experienced reduced volatility. The fair value has been upgraded based on the company’s recently released first quarter 2011 result. 15 .000 December 2009 ('000) 218. The beta of the stock stood at 1. Our technical analysis shows that the stock price is attractive for long term investment.084.569. The graph of the stock price against the NSE ASI at the top right corner shows the stock price is currently below the signal line and may experience an upward rally in the next couple of days.287.2 58.0 00 2. First Trustees Limited.411.60 billion.02 13. First Bank has international presence through its subsidiary FBN Bank (UK) in London and Paris. as well as its consistent dividend and bonus policy has made it possible for the bank to distinguish itself as the leading financial institution and a major contributor to the economic advancement and development in Nigeria. We also expect the share price to gravitate towards AMCON’s proposed transfer price of N19.86 16.56 We maintain our recommendation on First Bank as BUY.36 38.16 20. First Registrars Nigeria Limited. The Profit After Tax (PAT) stood at N33. 2011 NSE All-Share Index Vs FIRSTBANK. from N12.64 per cent from N218. This indicates that First Bank of Nigeria Plc is undervalued by 48. It currently operates through 536 branches in Nigeria.00 0. solid capital base and high market share. as against N12.00 4-Jan-10 4-Jul-10 4-Jan-11 NSE Rebased Firstbank Rebased Poly.88 in the medium term.34%. compared to 2.00 R² = 0.0 00 5.75% as estimated with the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). The Bank has been in existence for about 115 years and over the years.6 4% 165.009. First Funds Limited. First Pension Custodian Limited. it has maintained a strong brand name.22%.33% 33. The branch network which cuts across all parts of Nigeria. as the 100-day MA is slightly above the 200-day MA. which include FBN Capital Limited.4 9% 340.55% 13. FBN Mortgages Limited.2866 50.

and this accounted for its wide customer base.19 12.58 per cent from N277 billion recorded in 2009 to N192 billion in 2010.43% 337.6 03.00 0.00 4-Jan-10NSE Rebased 4-Jul-10 Zenithbank Rebased 4-Jan-11 Poly. using the recently released full year results.027 10.40 A weighted average of all the valuation metrics produced a reviewed final fair price of N20. Our technical analysis seems to indicate that the stock is attractive for long and short term investors as the 200day MA is below the 100-day MA. As part of its vision to become a global leader in the industry.414.0 00 19.93 20. Zenith Securities Limited.41 billion in 2010.10 7.60 billion in 2009 to N37.63% -99. Profit After Tax (PAT) increased by 81.Jan '10 Date 100.000 1.70 13. The beta of the stock price is 1. The bank’s result for the first quarter of 2011 saw PAT stand at N15.31 16. The expected one year return of the stock as estimated with the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is 17. Zenith Bank’s growth and performance has continued to earn excellent ratings from both local and international rating agencies. and it seems that the price may witness an upward movement in the next couple of trading sessions.58% 81. The Bank was rated Aaa in Nigeria consecutively for six (6) years by Agusto & Co.31. 2011 NSE All-Share Index Vs ZENITHBANK. Zenith Trust Limited and Zenith Medicare Limited to offer a wide range of financial services. (Zenithbank Rebased) ZENITH BANK PLC Current Price Year High Year Low EPS P/E Ratio Outstanding Shares Dividend Yield Profit After Tax '000 (Full Year) Year End 15. This indicates that the stock is 33.59 per cent from N20.90 1. a decline from 2. In the medium term.00 R² = 0.000 1.48% CH. The bank’s Turnover declined by 30.59% 161.20% 2.00 May 9 . However.85k.396. from N9. The bank declared a dividend per share of N0.3 00. This represents a discount of 41. 150. to most multinational companies in Nigeria.07 billion. Zenith General Insurance Company Limited.45%.793. namely.414.13.51 billion recorded in the same period in 2010.000 20. 16 .6 1% 7.659.40.63 using AMCON’s methodology.85 31.49% recorded the previous week. Ltd.000 12. respectively.55% 37. the market price is likely to oscillate around the proposed transfer price of N21. The uniqueness of the Bank’s brand of financial services has actually made it one of the choices in banking.2987 50. just as the 5-day MA is above the 10-day MA.25% undervalued at the current market price of N15.50% ZENITH BANK PLC 2009 ('000) 277. The graph of the stock price against the NSE ASI at the top right corner also show that the stock is currently below the signal line.790 5.703.09%. Zenith Bank Ghana Limited.41 34.000 7.561.Greenwich Stock Recommendations ZENITH BANK PLC The bank’s business location strategy and infrastructure deployment show its commitment to customer enthusiasm at all times.6 7% 4.05 and one-year Standard Deviation is 2.29% from the current price.84 19.4 4% 363.0 00 37.8 95. Zenith Pension Limited.89% Valuation Weight Estimated Value Earnings Basis Forward Earnings Basis Dividend Basis Price to Book Basis Estimated Fair Value 10 30 30 30 100 18. Zenith Registrars Limited.000 December Turnover Net Profit After Tax Net Pofit Margin Sharehold ers' Funds Total Assets ROSH ROA ZENITH BANK PLC 2010 ('000) 192. We therefore maintain our recommendation on Zenith Bank as LONG TERM BUY. Zenith Bank (UK) Limited. the Bank carries out its operations through a number of subsidiaries. The bank has consistently recorded impressive performance on several parameters and this demonstrates the rising customer patronage and an excellent approval and endorsement all over the world. -30. in all business offices across Nigeria.493.488.

This strong conviction is reflected in a strategy that combines industrial knowhow with performance.19 billion in 2009 to N19. which is significantly higher than the market’s 0.18% ASHAKA CEMENT PLC 2009 ('000) 17.193. given a beta of 1. The company’s full year result ended December 31.000 25. 2010.13.125 1. indicating an increase of 185.0 00 3.00 100. 300.6 18 5.00 150.6 18. and its capability to expand and take advantage of emerging opportunities.74. its domineering status in some regions of the country.36% 7.025 14.6 8% 16.49% 13.35% 185. indicating a “buy” signal.000 28.78% Valuation Weight Estimated Value Earnings Basis Forward Earnings Basis Dividend Basis Price to Book Basis Estimated Fair Value 10 20 30 40 100 11.00 250.35 per cent from N943. just as the 5-day MA is above the 10-day MA.40 per cent from N17. their different needs and their environment. (Flourmill Rebased) ASHAKA CEM ENT PLC Current Price Year High Year Low EPS P/E Ratio Outstanding Shares Dividend Yield Profit After Tax '000 (Full Year) Year End 25. Net Profit Margin (NPM) also increased from 5.59% at the current market price of N25.16% 3.49 per cent in the corresponding period of 2009 to 15.141. using AMCON’s valuation methodology. The stock is more volatile as the market.04%. The increase in earnings has been attributed to the rise in cement prices during the financial year as a result of increased public projects in terms of infrastructural development.40% 218.88%.3 7% CH.79 27. which crippled the economy in 2008 is beginning to ease. Consequently.655 4-Jul-10 NSE Rebased Poly. 2011 NSE All-Share Index Vs Flourmill. Our technical analysis shows that the 100-day MA is currently above the 200-day MA.0 00 15. (Flourmill Rebased) 4-Jan-11 Flourmill Rebased Poly.00 0.95. Profit After Tax (PAT) surged by 218.03.453.87 43. It was also noted that the impact of the global financial crisis.55 23.00 1.000 December Turnover Net Profit After Tax Net Pofit Margin Sharehold ers' Funds Total Assets ROSH ROA ASHAKA CEM ENT PLC 2010 ('000) 19. resulting to a growth of 41.239.00 24.00 50.92%.77% 22.60%.004.004. The company has maintained a reputation of consistent dividend and bonus history.123.00 4-Jan-10 May 9 .14 A weighted average of all the valuation metrics produced a final fair price of N27.Jan '10 . the world leader in building materials in July 2001 after the acquisition of Blue Circle Industries Plc. We therefore review our recommendation on the stock to HOLD. value creation.000 943.62 million to N3.153.249 20. Long term return prospect of the stock estimated with the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is 17. 11.51% 11. The company believes that ongoing advances in building materials must integrate respect for people.95 30. This indicates that the stock is currently trading at a discount of 4.00 billion when compared to the same period in the preceding year. In the short to medium term.34 19.61 per cent. The one-year Standard Deviation of 2.35 2. investors’ expectation of bounty returns at the end of their financial year will trigger the demand for the stock. the advantage it derives from the technical alliance with other leading companies in the sector.84 16.00 200. the market price is likely to oscillate around the proposed transfer price of N36. respect for employees & local cultures. The company’s principal activities are the manufacturing and marketing of cement products. shows that turnover increased by 11.14. Meanwhile.68 per cent in the 2010.Date R² = 0.15 billion in 2010.87% 9. 17 .146.Greenwich Stock Recommendations ASHAKA CEMENT PLC Ashaka Cement Plc (Ashakacem) became a subsidiary of Lafarge Group. environmental protection and conservation of natural resources & energy. the strength of the Company resides in its ownership of a completed power project for production.

On successful combination.000 13.000.185.69% DANGOTE SUGAR REFINERY PLC Valuation Weight Estimated Value Earnings Basis Forward Earnings Basis Dividend Basis Price to Book Basis Estimated Fair Value 10 20 30 40 100 17.62 10.94 14. 2011 DANGOTE SUGAR REFINERY PLC Dangote Sugar Refinery (DSR) operates in two key business areas which include: Refining Process and Marketing & Distribution.00 R² = 0.6 12.15 12. and it seems that the price may slightly reverse downwards. This has helped the company to maintain consistent growth.50 were listed on the 8th of March 2007.28 in the short to medium term. The one year return prospect of the stock as estimated with the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is 17.282. Therefore. The graph of the stock price against the NSE ASI at the top right corner shows that the stock has crossed the signal line from below.000 62. will see it become a formidable institution within the Sugar industry in Nigeria and beyond. Meanwhile.9 80.80 0.03% 20.000.51% 11. A total of 10 billion shares of N0.00% 41. resolved to change the quarterly dividend policy of the company as a result of difficulty in the payment process.72% -19.000 16. DSR has always relied mainly on retained earnings to support its growth in the past. SSCL. with 10% per annum interest to investors whose application were invalid. The company whose offer was 139.75 20. (Dangsugar Rebased) 4-Jul-10 4-Jan-11 Dan gsu gar Reb ased D AN GOT E SU GAR R EFIN ER Y PLC Current Price Year High Year Low EPS P/E Ratio Outstanding Shares Dividend Yield Profit After Tax '000 (Full Year) Year End 13. we expect the share price to trend towards AMCON’s hurdle price of N26.19%.125 39.2 1% -14.79 13. as the weighted average of all the valuation metrics produced a final fair price of N13.Jan '10 Date 100. the Board of Directors of the company that earlier promised quarterly dividend in 2009.340 27.000 4. the potential synergies between DSR and its intended merger partner.0 00 11.59%.35 8.12%. through the production of 2.3 5% 16. 9. SSCL currently produces white sugar from own grown sugarcane.44 million metric tones. From the technical viewpoint.55 million metric tones per annum from 1.00 4-Jan-10 NSE Rebased P oly.5% over subscribed.0 00 12.99.6131 50.8 95. returned over N20 billion. to create synergies and increase overall capacity.99 The fundamental value of DSR is tilted towards the Earnings Metric. The company expanded its production capacity by 75% in the first quarter of 2008.13.30 16.2 82.Greenwich Stock Recommendations May 9 .65% -1. 18 .000 77. The company intends to diversify into the upstream segment of the sugar business by acquiring and developing Savannah Sugar Company Limited (SSCL).00 NSE All-Share Index Vs DANGSUGAR .000 December Turnover Net Profit After Tax Net Pofit Margin Sharehold ers' Funds Total Assets ROSH ROA DANGOTE SUGAR REFINERY PLC 2010 ('000) 89. a subsidiary of Dangote Industries Limited (DIL).2 91. This indicates that the stock is trading at a discount of 5. representing a discount of 97. 150. we recommend the stock as HOLD.6 5% CH.43% -21. and this strategy accounted for the non-payment of dividend for some years.3 95.00 0. and failure of the policy to impact noticeably on the market valuation of the shares of the company.13% 2009 ('000) 82.20 11.562.54% 40.

Greenwich Research Database. Moving averages are used to emphasize the direction of a trend and to smooth out price and volume fluctuations that can confuse interpretation. IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Information Source The data used in this report were sourced from the audited accounts of the companies for their various financial year ends. A weighted average of all these valuation methods was taken as the final estimated fair value of the stock. Forecasted Earnings. The forecast was based on an average of the CAGR for a 10-day trading period and the daily average growth rate of the stock price for the corresponding period. 2011 APPENDIX DEFINITION OF TECHNICAL ANALYTICS TERMS Moving Average . and National dailies. which is the Capital Asset Pricing Model. adjustments were still made where estimates seemed unrealistic. However. was used in this report to derive the expected investment returns for one year investment timeframe.MA This is an indicator frequently used to measure momentum and to define areas of possible support and resistance. the forecasts may be achieved in a period less than 5 trading sessions. and Price to Book Basis. which was used as the base. the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) Price List. Note that this is an expectation and that returns may be significantly higher or the expected returns may be achieved over a time period much less than one year. The most recent profit after tax. The risk-free rate of return was the current yield on the 20-year FGN Bond recently issued with a coupon rate of 10%. CAPM. Good judgment was exercised in determining the current market trend and adjustments were made when we felt that the observed trend might not be attainable for the forecast horizon. so as to generate a realistic returns. Good judgment and objectivity were displayed in deriving the estimates. The price forecasts in the Report are for time horizon between 5 to 10 trading sessions. The betas of the stocks were calculated using market data covering 36 months. The weights applied were based on our perceived applicability of the models to the different sectors of the Nigerian economy. Dividends Basis. A five year time horizon was used in most cases in order to smoothen the returns as much as possible. Despite the five year forecast horizon.Greenwich Stock Recommendations May 9 . namely: Earnings (Historical). while market return is the weighted average of the sector returns on the Nigerian Stock Exchange. Valuation Models and Methodology Applied in this Report The equity analysis was conducted using a combination of valuation models. 19 . The forecasted earnings were derived using CAGR as a forecast factor over a period of time.13. It shows the average value of a security's price over a set period. Other sources included the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) monthly reports. was forecasted five years into the future and the average of these five years was taken as the normalized earnings in the forecasted valuation model after discounting for present value equivalent.

Greenwich Stock Recommendations May 9 . COMMUNICATION & TELECOMMUNICATIONS INSURANCE LEASING MACHINERY(MARKETING) MARITIME MEDIA MORTGAGE COMPANIES OTHER FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS PACKAGING PETROLEUM(MARKETING) PRINTING & PUBLISHING REAL ESTATE REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST ROAD TRANSPORTATION SECOND-TIER SECURITIES TEXTILES THE FOREIGN LISTINGS Basis of Projection Earnings Earnings Book Value Earnings Historical Dividends / Book Value / Earnings Historical Dividends Book Value Book Value Book Value Earnings Book Value Historical Dividends / Book Value Book Value Earnings Book Value Earnings Book Value Book Value Book Value Earnings Earnings Book Value Earnings Book Value Earnings Historical Dividends / Book Value Book Value / Earnings Historical Dividends / Earnings Book Value Earnings Book Value Book Value Earnings Book Value Book Value / Earnings 20 . 2011 IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES CONT’D Sector AGRICULTURE AIRLINE SERVICES AUTOMOBILE & TYRE AVIATION BANKING BREWERIES BUILDING MATERIALS CHEMICAL & PAINTS COMMERCIAL/SERVICES COMPUTER & OFFICE EQUIPMENT CONGLOMERATES CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY FOOD/BEVERAGES & TOBACCO FOOTWEAR HEALTHCARE HOTEL & TOURISM INDUSTRIAL/DOMESTIC PRODUCTS INFORMATION.13.

as no representation is made on the accuracy of the sources used in preparing the Report. We give a Buy recommendation when the stock has good technicals and strong fundamentals. and for fundamental investing where growth and income are the investment objectives. where more than one estimates were stated. and it is for information purposes only. The price projections for the financial year in the report were generated based on the perceived nature of business of the respective sectors. 2011 We refer to long term investment timeframe to be a period greater than one year and short term investment timeframe to be a period less than one year.13.Greenwich Stock Recommendations Investment Timeframes May 9 . In some cases. implying that the stock can be used for speculating the market. 21 . the average of the estimates was taken as the price. Greenwich Trust Limited is under no obligation to accept any liabilities that may arise from the use of any part of this report. Analyzed below is tabularized bases of estimating the forecasts. Hedge Clause The report was prepared by Greenwich Research.

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