BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2010

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Recession and Recovery

Christof Rühl Group Chief Economist
© BP 2010

Outline
• Introduction • Recession and Recovery • Fuel by Fuel • Conclusions

© BP 2010 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

) growth 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 Non-OECD OECD 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 © BP 2010 World trade . BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010 .exports y-o-y growth World OECD Non-OECD Source: includes data from IMF and BP estimates.Recession and Recovery GDP q-o-q (ann.

GDP and Energy Consumption Growth y-o-y growth 4% 2% 0% OECD GDP Energy y-o-y growth 8% Non-OECD 6% 4% -2% -4% -6% 2003-07 Source: includes data from Oxford Economics. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010 2% 0% 2008 2009 2003-07 2008 2009 © BP 2010 .

Primary Energy Consumption Growth 2009. Mtoe 300 Oil 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 World BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010 Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro OECD China & India Other non-OECD © BP 2010 .

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010 .US Energy Consumption Energy consumption y-o-y growth 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Industry Other Industrial Production Industrial energy demand y-o-y growth 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% 2008 2009 © BP 2010 Oil Coal Gas Electricity Source: includes data from the EIA and US Federal Reserve.

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010 .Energy Prices $/boe 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 © BP 2010 Oil (Brent) Gas (Henry Hub) Coal (Basket) Source: includes data from Platts and McCloskey.

900 Nuclear Hydro 2009 20% Ot U K 10% 19.700 Decline Growth BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010 0% 2000 2003 2006 2009 © BP 2010 .100 From fossil fuels Renewables 30% 2008 19.300 40% Share of total generation Nuclear Renewables Hydro 20.Non-Fossil Fuels and Power Generation Total electricity generation TWh 20.

O. Lichts. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010 .Renewable Energy Wind capacity GW 200 US Spain RoW Germany China Ethanol production Mtoe 40 RoW US Brazil Mexico North Sea 150 30 100 20 50 10 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 © BP 2010 Source: includes data from BTM Consult. EIA and F.

Crude Oil Prices $/bbl 150 120 90 60 30 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 © BP 2010 Dated Brent Annual averages Source: includes data from Platts. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010 .

Oil Consumption Mb/d 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 2003-07 2008 2009 Annual growth OECD China Other non-OECD Middle East Mb/d 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 1995 Annual consumption Non-OECD OECD Total 1999 2003 2007 © BP 2010 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010 .

Mb/d 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 1Q08 Source: includes data from the IEA. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010 Global consumption Non-OPEC supply OPEC supply 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 © BP 2010 .OPEC Supply Management y-o-y growth.

0 0.3 Mb/d 0.8 -1.4 0.OPEC Production Mb/d Saudi Arabia 2009 vs 2008 UAE Kuwait Algeria Libya Venezuela Iran Angola Nigeria Qatar Ecuador Iraq -0.0 -0.9 Decrease BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010 Increase 2003-07 2008 2009 © BP 2010 .8 0.3 0.2 -0.4 -0.2 Annual average growth Saudi Arabia Kuwait/UAE Other -1.6 -0.

.2 0. N. America US rig count 100 50 Decrease BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010 Increase 0 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 © BP 2010 Source: includes data from Baker Hughes and Platts.4 -0.Non-OPEC Production 2009 vs 2008 Mb/d Mexico China Norway UK Canada Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Brazil Russia US -0.6 Oil rig count and oil price Index: Jan 2008 = 100 200 OECD FSU Non-OECD 150 Brent price Rig count excl.4 0.2 0.0 0.

Oil Inventories OECD commercial oil stocks Mbbls 2900 04-08 Range 2800 2700 2009 2010 Oil in floating storage Mbbls 160 Crude Distillate 120 80 2600 2500 2400 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 40 0 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 © BP 2010 Source: includes data from IEA. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010 .

Av. Spare capacity growth y-o-y.Refining Margins and Spare Capacity Refining margins $/bbl 10 8 6 BP GIM 10-yr. Mb/d 4 From new facilities From lower crude runs 3 2 4 2 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 ytd Source: includes data from Parpinelli Technon and ESAI. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010 1 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 © BP 2010 .

Mb/d 2 non-OECD OECD 1 Refinery utilisation 90% 87% 0 84% -1 81% World non-OECD 2005 2006 2007 OECD -2 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 78% 2008 2009 © BP 2010 Source: includes data from Parpinelli-Technon and ESAI.Crude Runs and Refinery Utilisation Crude run growth y-o-y. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010 .

Natural Gas Market $/Mmbtu 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2002 Gas prices AGIP Henry Hub Bcm 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 2009 vs 2008 Other OECD FSU 2004 2006 2008 2010 ytd -100 Consumption Production © BP 2010 Source: includes data from Platts and BMWi. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010 .

rig count y-o-y. Bcm 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 700 Total gas production Bcm 600 550 500 450 400 2008 2007 2006 2009 Shale Coal bed methane Other 2005 900 1100 1300 Gas rig count 1500 350 300 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 © BP 2010 Source: includes data from the EIA and Baker Hughes.US Natural Gas Production Production growth vs. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010 .

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010 . * Accounting for thermal efficiencies and transport cost of coal.US Power Sector Fuel Switching Cost in power generation* $/MWh 100 80 60 20% Gas share of generation from gas/coal 40% 2008 2009 30% 40 20 0 Jan-08 10% Central Appalachian coal Henry Hub Jan-09 Jan-10 0% 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q © BP 2010 Source: includes data from the EIA and Platts.

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010 .Liquefied Natural Gas LNG exports by basin Bcm 250 200 150 100 50 LNG import growth by region y-o-y. Bcm 20 Middle East 10 Europe Pacific Basin 0 Other Asia Atlantic Basin 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 -10 2007 2008 2009 © BP 2010 Source: includes data from Cedigaz.

2009 vs 2008 Bcm 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 Source: includes data from Cedigaz. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010 FSU . 0 -20 -40 Cons. Cons. -60 -80 -100 © BP 2010 . Prod.Gas-On-Gas Competition Europe .2009 vs 2008 Bcm 20 Net LNG Net pipeline Prod.

5 150 1. .0 100 0.5 50 0.0 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010 0 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 © BP 2010 Note: Canadian Oil Sands are ‘remaining established reserves’. less reserves ‘under active development’ (from 1999 only).0 Canadian oil sands Other OECD FSU OPEC Natural Gas Trillion m3 200 OECD Other Middle East FSU Mexico North Sea 1.Oil and Natural Gas Proved Reserves Oil Trillion bbls 2.

Coal Consumption and Production Consumption growth Mtoe 200 2009 production changes ex-China Mtoe India Indonesia 100 Australia Vietnam Poland 0 China India OECD Rest of World 2003-07 2008 2009 -100 Kazakhstan Russia US -60 -40 -20 0 20 © BP 2010 -200 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010 .

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010 08 09 Australia 08 09 Indonesia 08 09 South Africa © BP 2010 .Coal Prices and Indian Ocean Exports $/tonne 200 Coal prices 40% Export shares to China to India 150 30% 100 20% 50 0 Japan Steam coal Qinhuangdao Spot Newcastle. Australia 10% 0% Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Source: includes data from McCloskey. Platts and FACTS.

Chinese Coal Consumption Chinese GDP. . coal and electricity y-o-y growth 20% GDP Coal Electricity 2009 coal consumption by use y-o-y growth 20% 15% 15% Total 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% 2003-07 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010 0% 2008 2009 Cement Steel Other Power © BP 2010 Source: includes coal use estimates based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

supporting growth in the developing world © BP 2010 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010 .Conclusion • It’s the Economy • Maintaining growth has been energy intensive • Long term trends in major fuel markets accelerated during recession and recovery • So did the global re-allocation of energy resources.

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