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Global Warming and Climate Change

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Contents
Articles
Global warming Instrumental temperature record Temperature record of the past 1000 years Historical climatology Paleoclimatology Biofuel Earth's energy budget Earth's radiation balance Fossil fuel Global dimming Global warming potential Greenhouse effect Greenhouse gas Land use, land-use change and forestry Radiative forcing Urban heat island Albedo Bond event Glacial period Global cooling Atlantic multidecadal oscillation El Niño-Southern Oscillation Indian Ocean Dipole Pacific decadal oscillation Milankovitch cycles Orbital forcing Solar variation Volcano Global climate model History of climate change science Scientific opinion on climate change List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming Effects of global warming Abrupt climate change 1 23 33 37 40 48 59 61 62 68 77 80 85 104 106 109 118 124 126 127 135 138 151 153 160 168 170 182 198 212 218 244 252 266

Climate change and agriculture Climate change and ecosystems Drought Economics of global warming Effects of climate change on humans Effects of climate change on marine mammals Fisheries and climate change Retreat of glaciers since 1850 Extinction risk from global warming Ozone depletion Ocean acidification Effect of climate change on plant biodiversity Climate change and poverty Runaway climate change Current sea level rise Season creep Shutdown of thermohaline circulation Kyoto Protocol 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference G8 Climate Change Roundtable Fossil-fuel phase-out Emissions trading Efficient energy use Renewable energy Nuclear energy Carbon capture and storage Geoengineering Carbon sink Climate change mitigation scenarios Drought tolerance Irrigation Rainwater tank Sustainable development Weather control Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change Index of climate change articles

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References

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Global warming

1

Global warming

Line plot of global mean land-ocean temperature change from 1880-2010, relative to the 1951-1980 mean. The black line is the annual mean and the red line is the 5-year running mean. The green bars show uncertainty estimates. Source: NASA GISS

Comparison of surface based (blue) and satellite based (red: UAH; green: RSS) records of global mean temperature change from 1979-2009. Linear trends plotted since 1982.

The map shows the 10-year average (2000-2009) global mean temperature anomaly relative to the 1951-1980 mean. The largest temperature [1] increases are in the Arctic and the Antarctic Peninsula. Source: NASA Earth Observatory

Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of Earth's near-surface air and oceans since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation. According to the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global surface temperature increased by 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) during the 20th century.[2] [A] Most of the observed temperature increase since the middle of the 20th century has been caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, which result from human activities such as the burning of fossil fuel and deforestation.[3] [4] Global dimming, a phenomenon of increasing atmospheric concentrations of human-made particulates, which affect cloud properties and block sunlight from reaching the surface, has partially countered the effects of warming induced by greenhouse gases. Climate model projections summarized in the 2007 IPCC report indicate that the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) during the 21st century.[2] The uncertainty in this estimate arises from the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations and the use of differing estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions. An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and pattern of precipitation, probably including expansion of subtropical deserts.[5] Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely effects of the warming include more frequent and intense precipitation events, extreme weather events, species extinctions due to shifting isotherms, and changes in agricultural yields. Warming and related changes will vary from region to region around the globe, though the nature of these regional changes is uncertain.[6] As a result of

Global warming contemporary increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, the oceans have become more acidic, a result that is predicted to continue.[7] [8] The scientific consensus is that anthropogenic global warming is occurring. This finding is recognized by the national science academies of all the major industrialized countries and is not rejected by any scientific body of national or international standing.[9] [10] [11] [B] Nevertheless, skepticism amongst the wider public remains. The Kyoto Protocol is aimed at stabilizing greenhouse gas concentration to prevent a "dangerous anthropogenic interference".[12] As of November 2009, 187 states had signed and ratified the protocol.[13] Proposed responses to global warming include mitigation to reduce emissions, adaptation to the effects of global warming, and geoengineering to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.

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Temperature changes
Evidence for warming of the climate system includes observed increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.[14] [15] [16] [17] The most common measure of global warming is the trend in globally averaged temperature near the Earth's surface. Expressed as a linear trend, this temperature rose by 0.74 ± 0.18 °C over the period 1906–2005. The rate of warming over the last half of that period was almost double that for the period as a whole (0.13 ± 0.03 °C per decade, versus 0.07 °C ± 0.02 °C per decade). The urban heat island Two millennia of mean surface temperatures effect is estimated to account for about 0.002 °C of warming per according to different reconstructions, each decade since 1900.[18] Temperatures in the lower troposphere have smoothed on a decadal scale, with the instrumemtal temperature record overlaid in increased between 0.13 and 0.22 °C (0.22 and 0.4 °F) per decade since black. 1979, according to satellite temperature measurements. Temperature is believed to have been relatively stable over the one or two thousand years before 1850, with regionally varying fluctuations such as the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age.[19] Estimates by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the National Climatic Data Center show that 2005 was the planet's warmest year since reliable, widespread instrumental measurements became available in the late 19th century, exceeding the previous record set in 1998 by a few hundredths of a degree.[20] [21] Estimates prepared by the World Meteorological Organization and the Climatic Research Unit show 2005 as the second warmest year, behind 1998.[22] [23] Temperatures in 1998 were unusually warm because the strongest El Niño in the past century occurred during that year.[24] Global temperature is subject to short-term fluctuations that overlay long term trends and can temporarily mask them. The relative stability in temperature from 2002 to 2009 is consistent with such an episode.[25] [26] Temperature changes vary over the globe. Since 1979, land temperatures have increased about twice as fast as ocean temperatures (0.25 °C per decade against 0.13 °C per decade).[27] Ocean temperatures increase more slowly than land temperatures because of the larger effective heat capacity of the oceans and because the ocean loses more heat by evaporation.[28] The Northern Hemisphere warms faster than the Southern Hemisphere because it has more land and because it has extensive areas of seasonal snow and sea-ice cover subject to ice-albedo feedback. Although more greenhouse gases are emitted in the Northern than Southern Hemisphere this does not contribute to the difference in warming because the major greenhouse gases persist long enough to mix between hemispheres.[29] The thermal inertia of the oceans and slow responses of other indirect effects mean that climate can take centuries or longer to adjust to changes in forcing. Climate commitment studies indicate that even if greenhouse gases were stabilized at 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) would still occur.[30]

Global warming

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External forcings
External forcing refers to processes external to the climate system (though not necessarily external to Earth) that influence climate. Climate responds to several types of external forcing, such as radiative forcing due to changes in atmospheric composition (mainly greenhouse gas concentrations), changes in solar luminosity, volcanic eruptions, and variations in Earth's orbit around the Sun.[31] Attribution of recent climate change focuses on the first three types of forcing. Orbital cycles vary slowly over tens of thousands of years and thus are too gradual to have caused the temperature changes observed in the past century.

Greenhouse gases

Greenhouse effect schematic showing energy flows between space, the atmosphere, and earth's surface. Energy exchanges are expressed in watts per square meter (W/m2).

This graph is known as the "Keeling Curve" and it shows the long-term increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations from 1958-2008. Monthly CO2 measurements display seasonal oscillations in an upward trend; each year's maximum occurs during the Northern Hemisphere's late spring, and declines during its growing season as plants remove some atmospheric CO2.

The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by gases in the atmosphere warm a planet's lower atmosphere and surface. It was proposed by Joseph Fourier in 1824 and was first investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896.[32] Naturally occurring greenhouse gases have a mean warming effect of about 33 °C (59 °F).[33] [C] The major greenhouse gases are water vapor, which causes about 36–70 percent of the greenhouse effect; carbon dioxide (CO2), which causes 9–26 percent; methane (CH4), which causes 4–9 percent; and ozone (O3), which causes 3–7 percent.[34] [35] [36] Clouds also affect the radiation balance, but they are composed of liquid water or ice and so have different effects on radiation from water vapor. Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing from CO2, methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide. The concentrations of CO2 and methane have increased by 36% and 148% respectively since 1750.[37] These levels are much higher than at any time during the last 800,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been extracted from ice cores.[38] [39] [40] [41] Less direct geological evidence indicates that CO2 values higher than this were last seen about 20 million years ago.[42] Fossil fuel burning has produced about three-quarters of the increase in CO2 from human activity over the past 20 years. The rest of this increase is caused mostly by changes in land-use, particularly deforestation.[43] Over the last three decades of the 20th century, GDP per capita and population growth were the main drivers of increases in greenhouse gas emissions.[44] CO2 emissions are continuing to rise due to the burning of fossil fuels and

Global warming land-use change.[45] [46] :71 Emissions scenarios, estimates of changes in future emission levels of greenhouse gases, have been projected that depend upon uncertain economic, sociological, technological, and natural developments.[47] In most scenarios, emissions continue to rise over the century, while in a few, emissions are reduced.[48] [49] These emission scenarios, combined with carbon cycle modelling, have been used to produce estimates of how atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases will change in the future. Using the six IPCC SRES "marker" scenarios, models suggest that by the year 2100, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 could range between 541 and 970 ppm.[50] This is an increase of 90-250% above the concentration in the year 1750. Fossil fuel reserves are sufficient to reach these levels and continue emissions past 2100 if coal, oil sands or methane clathrates are extensively exploited.[51] The popular media and the public often confuse global warming with the ozone hole, i.e., the destruction of stratospheric ozone by chlorofluorocarbons.[52] [53] Although there are a few areas of linkage, the relationship between the two is not strong. Reduced stratospheric ozone has had a slight cooling influence on surface temperatures, while increased tropospheric ozone has had a somewhat larger warming effect.[54]

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Particulates and soot
Global dimming, a gradual reduction in the amount of global direct irradiance at the Earth's surface, has partially counteracted global warming from 1960 to the present.[55] The main cause of this dimming is particulates produced by volcanoes and pollutants, which exerts a cooling effect by increasing the reflection of incoming sunlight. The effects of the products of fossil fuel combustion—CO2 and aerosols—have largely offset one another in recent decades, so that net warming has been due to the increase in non-CO2 greenhouse gases such as methane.[56] Radiative forcing due to particulates is temporally limited due to wet deposition which causes them to have an atmospheric lifetime of one week. Carbon dioxide has a lifetime of a century or more, and as such, changes in particulate concentrations will only delay climate changes due to carbon dioxide.[57]

Ship tracks over the Atlantic Ocean on the east coast of the United States. The climatic impacts from particulate forcing could have a large effect on climate through the indirect effect.

In addition to their direct effect by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, particulates have indirect effects on the radiation budget.[58] Sulfates act as cloud condensation nuclei and thus lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets, known as the Twomey effect.[59] This effect also causes droplets to be of more uniform size, which reduces growth of raindrops and makes the cloud more reflective to incoming sunlight, known as the Albrecht effect.[60] Indirect effects are most noticeable in marine stratiform clouds, and have very little radiative effect on convective clouds. Indirect effects of particulates represent the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing.[61] Soot may cool or warm the surface, depending on whether it is airborne or deposited. Atmospheric soot directly absorb solar radiation, which heats the atmosphere and cools the surface. In isolated areas with high soot production, such as rural India, as much as 50% of surface warming due to greenhouse gases may be masked by atmospheric brown clouds.[62] When deposited, especially on glaciers or on ice in arctic regions, the lower surface albedo can also directly heat the surface.[63] The influences of particulates, including black carbon, are most pronounced in the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly in Asia, while the effects of greenhouse gases are dominant in the extratropics and southern hemisphere.[64]

Global warming

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Solar variation
Variations in solar output have been the cause of past climate changes.[65] The effect of changes in solar forcing in recent decades is uncertain, but small, with some studies showing a slight cooling effect,[66] while others studies suggest a slight warming effect.[31] [67]
[68] [69]

Greenhouse gases and solar forcing affect temperatures in different ways. While both increased solar activity and increased greenhouse gases are expected to warm the troposphere, an increase in solar Total Solar Irradiance measured by satellite from activity should warm the stratosphere while an increase in greenhouse 1979-2006. gases should cool the stratosphere.[31] Observations show that temperatures in the stratosphere have been cooling since 1979, when satellite measurements became available. Radiosonde (weather balloon) data from the pre-satellite era show cooling since 1958, though there is greater uncertainty in the early radiosonde record.[70] A related hypothesis, proposed by Henrik Svensmark, is that magnetic activity of the sun deflects cosmic rays that may influence the generation of cloud condensation nuclei and thereby affect the climate.[71] Other research has found no relation between warming in recent decades and cosmic rays.[72] [73] The influence of cosmic rays on cloud cover is about a factor of 100 lower than needed to explain the observed changes in clouds or to be a significant contributor to present-day climate change.[74]

Feedback
Feedback is a process in which changing one quantity changes a second quantity, and the change in the second quantity in turn changes the first. Positive feedback increases the change in the first quantity while negative feedback reduces it. Feedback is important in the study of global warming because it may amplify or diminish the effect of a particular process. The main positive feedback in global warming is the tendency of warming to increase the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, a significant greenhouse gas. The main negative feedback is radiative cooling, which increases as the fourth power of temperature; the amount of heat radiated from the Earth into space increases with the temperature of Earth's surface and atmosphere. Imperfect understanding of feedbacks is a major cause of uncertainty and concern about global warming. A wide range of potential feedback process exist, such as Arctic methane release and ice-albedo feedback. Consequentially, potential tipping points may exist, which may have the potential to cause abrupt climate change.[75]

Climate models

Calculations of global warming prepared in or before 2001 from a range of climate models under the SRES A2 emissions scenario, which assumes no action is taken to reduce emissions and regionally divided economic development.

Global warming

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The geographic distribution of surface warming during the 21st century calculated by the HadCM3 climate model if a business as usual scenario is assumed for economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. In this figure, the globally averaged warming corresponds to 3.0 °C (5.4 °F).

The main tools for projecting future climate changes are mathematical models based on physical principles including fluid dynamics, thermodynamics and radiative transfer. Although they attempt to include as many processes as possible, simplifications of the actual climate system are inevitable because of the constraints of available computer power and limitations in knowledge of the climate system. All modern climate models are in fact combinations of models for different parts of the Earth. These include an atmospheric model for air movement, temperature, clouds, and other atmospheric properties; an ocean model that predicts temperature, salt content, and circulation of ocean waters; models for ice cover on land and sea; and a model of heat and moisture transfer from soil and vegetation to the atmosphere. Some models also include treatments of chemical and biological processes.[76] Warming due to increasing levels of greenhouse gases is not an assumption of the models; rather, it is an end result from the interaction of greenhouse gases with radiative transfer and other physical processes.[77] Although much of the variation in model outcomes depends on the greenhouse gas emissions used as inputs, the temperature effect of a specific greenhouse gas concentration (climate sensitivity) varies depending on the model used. The representation of clouds is one of the main sources of uncertainty in present-generation models.[78] Global climate model projections of future climate most often have used estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). In addition to human-caused emissions, some models also include a simulation of the carbon cycle; this generally shows a positive feedback, though this response is uncertain. Some observational studies also show a positive feedback.[79] [80] [81] Including uncertainties in future greenhouse gas concentrations and climate sensitivity, the IPCC anticipates a warming of 1.1 °C to 6.4 °C (2.0 °F to 11.5 °F) by the end of the 21st century, relative to 1980–1999.[2] Models are also used to help investigate the causes of recent climate change by comparing the observed changes to those that the models project from various natural and human-derived causes. Although these models do not unambiguously attribute the warming that occurred from approximately 1910 to 1945 to either natural variation or human effects, they do indicate that the warming since 1970 is dominated by man-made greenhouse gas emissions.[31] The physical realism of models is tested by examining their ability to simulate current or past climates.[82] Current climate models produce a good match to observations of global temperature changes over the last century, but do not simulate all aspects of climate.[43] Not all effects of global warming are accurately predicted by the climate models used by the IPCC. Observed Arctic shrinkage has been faster than that predicted.[83] Precipitation increased proportional to atmospheric humidity, and hence significantly faster than current global climate models predict.[84]
[85]

Global warming

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Attributed and expected effects
Global warming may be detected in natural, ecological or social systems as a change having statistical significance.[86] Attribution of these changes e.g., to natural or human activities, is the next step following detection.[87]

Natural systems
Global warming has been detected in a number of systems. Some of these changes, e.g., based on the instrumental temperature record, have been described in the section on temperature changes. Rising sea levels and observed decreases in snow and ice extent are consistent with warming.[17] Most of the increase in global average temperature since the mid-20th century is, with high probability,[D] attributable to human-induced changes in greenhouse gas concentrations.[88] Even with current policies to reduce emissions, global emissions are still expected to continue to grow over the coming decades.[89] Over the course of the 21st century, increases in emissions at or above their current rate would very likely induce changes in the climate system larger than those observed in the 20th century.

Sparse records indicate that glaciers have been retreating since the early 1800s. In the 1950s measurements began that allow the monitoring of glacial mass balance, reported to the WGMS and the NSIDC.

In the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, across a range of future emission scenarios, model-based estimates of sea level rise for the end of the 21st century (the year 2090-2099, relative to 1980-1999) range from 0.18 to 0.59 m. These estimates, however, were not given a likelihood due to a lack of scientific understanding, nor was an upper bound given for sea level rise. Over the course of centuries to millennia, the melting of ice sheets could result in sea level rise of 4–6 m or more.[90] Changes in regional climate are expected to include greater warming over land, with most warming at high northern latitudes, and least warming over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean.[89] Snow cover area and sea ice extent are expected to decrease, with the Arctic expected to be largely ice-free in September by the 2037.[91] The frequency of hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation will very likely increase.

Ecological systems
In terrestrial ecosystems, the earlier timing of spring events, and poleward and upward shifts in plant and animal ranges, have been linked with high confidence to recent warming.[17] Future climate change is expected to particularly affect certain ecosystems, including tundra, mangroves, and coral reefs.[89] It is expected that most ecosystems will be affected by higher atmospheric CO2 levels, combined with higher global temperatures.[92] Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in the extinction of many species and reduced diversity of ecosystems.[93]

Social systems
Vulnerability of human societies to climate change mainly lies in the effects of extreme weather events rather than gradual climate change.[94] Impacts of climate change so far include adverse effects on small islands,[95] adverse effects on indigenous populations in high-latitude areas,[96] and small but discernable effects on human health.[97] Over the 21st century, climate change is likely to adversely affect hundreds of millions of people through increased coastal flooding, reductions in water supplies, increased malnutrition and increased health impacts.[98] Future warming of around 3 ºC (by 2100, relative to 1990-2000) could result in increased crop yields in mid- and high-latitude areas, but in low-latitude areas, yields could decline, increasing the risk of malnutrition.[95] A similar regional pattern of net benefits and costs could occur for economic (market-sector) effects.[97] Warming above 3 ºC

Global warming could result in crop yields falling in temperate regions, leading to a reduction in global food production.[99] Most economic studies suggest losses of world gross domestic product (GDP) for this magnitude of warming.[100] [101]

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Responses to global warming
Mitigation
Reducing the amount of future climate change is called mitigation of climate change. The IPCC defines mitigation as activities that reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, or enhance the capacity of carbon sinks to absorb GHGs from the atmosphere.[102] Many countries, both developing and developed, are aiming to use cleaner, less polluting, technologies.[46] :192 Use of these technologies aids mitigation and could result in substantial reductions in CO2 emissions. Policies include targets for emissions reductions, increased use of renewable energy, and increased energy efficiency. Studies indicate substantial potential for future reductions in emissions.[103] Since even in the most optimistic scenario, fossil fuels are going to be used for years to come, mitigation may also involve carbon capture and storage, a process that traps CO2 produced by factories and gas or coal power stations and then stores it, usually underground.[104]

Adaptation
Other policy responses include adaptation to climate change. Adaptation to climate change may be planned, e.g., by local or national government, or spontaneous, i.e., done privately without government intervention.[105] The ability to adapt is closely linked to social and economic development.[103] Even societies with high capacities to adapt are still vulnerable to climate change. Planned adaptation is already occurring on a limited basis. The barriers, limits, and costs of future adaptation are not fully understood.

Geoengineering
Another policy response is engineering of the climate (geoengineering). This policy response is sometimes grouped together with mitigation.[106] Geoengineering is largely unproven, and reliable cost estimates for it have not yet been published.[107] Geoengineering encompasses a range of techniques to remove CO2 from the atmosphere or to block incoming sunlight. As most geoengineering techniques would affect the entire globe, the use of effective techniques, if they can be developed, would require global public acceptance and an adequate global legal and regulatory framework.[108]

UNFCCC
Most countries are Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).[109] The ultimate objective of the Convention is to prevent "dangerous" human interference of the climate system.[110] As is stated in the Convention, this requires that GHGs are stabilized in the atmosphere at a level where ecosystems can adapt naturally to climate change, food production is not threatened, and economic development can proceed in a sustainable fashion. The UNFCCC recognizes differences among countries in their responsibility to act on climate change.[111] In the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC, most developed countries (listed in Annex I of the treaty) took on legally binding commitments to reduce their emissions.[112] Policy measures taken in response to these commitments have reduced emissions.[113] For many developing (non-Annex I) countries, reducing poverty is their overriding aim.[114] At the 15th UNFCCC Conference of the Parties, held in 2009 at Copenhagen, several UNFCCC Parties produced the Copenhagen Accord.[115] Parties agreeing with the Accord aim to limit the future increase in global mean temperature to below 2 °C.[116] The 16th Conference of the Parties (COP16) was held at Cancún in 2010. It produced an agreement, not a binding treaty, that the Parties should take urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to meet the 2 °C goal. It also recognized the need to consider strengthening the goal to a global average rise of

Global warming 1.5 °C.[117]

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Views on global warming

Per capita greenhouse gas emissions in 2005, including land-use change.

Total greenhouse gas emissions in 2005, including land-use change.

There are different views over what the appropriate policy response to climate change should be.[118] [119] These competing views weigh the benefits of limiting emissions of greenhouse gases against the costs. In general, it seems likely that climate change will impose greater damages and risks in poorer regions.[120]

Politics
Developed and developing countries have made different arguments over who should bear the burden of economic costs for cutting emissions. Developing countries often concentrate on per capita emissions, that is, the total emissions of a country divided by its population.[121] Per capita emissions in the industrialized countries are typically as much as ten times the average in developing countries.[122] This is used to make the argument that the real problem of climate change is due to the profligate and unsustainable lifestyles of those living in rich countries.[121] On the other hand, Banuri et al. point out that total carbon emissions,[121] carrying capacity, efficient energy use and civil and political rights are very important issues. Land is not the same everywhere. Not only the quantity of fossil fuel use but also the quality of energy use is a key debate point. Efficient energy use supporting technological change might help reduce excess carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere. The use of fossil fuels for conspicuous consumption and excessive entertainment are issues that can conflict with civil and political rights. People in developed countries argue that history has proven the difficulty of implementing fair rationing programs in different countries because there is no global system of checks and balances or civil liberties. The Kyoto Protocol, which came into force in 2005, sets legally binding emission limitations for most developed countries.[112] Developing countries are not subject to limitations. This exemption led the U.S. and Australia to decide not to ratify the treaty,[123] [124] [125] although Australia did finally ratify the treaty in December 2007.[126] Debate continued at the Copenhagen climate summit and the Cancún climate summit.

Public opinion
In 2007–2008 Gallup Polls surveyed 127 countries. Over a third of the world's population was unaware of global warming, with people in developing countries less aware than those in developed, and those in Africa the least aware. Of those aware, Latin America leads in belief that temperature changes are a result of human activities while Africa, parts of Asia and the Middle East, and a few countries from the Former Soviet Union lead in the opposite belief.[127] In the Western world, opinions over the concept and the appropriate responses are divided. Nick Pidgeon of Cardiff University said that "results show the different stages of engagement about global warming on each side of the Atlantic", adding, "The debate in Europe is about what action needs to be taken, while many in the U.S. still

Global warming debate whether climate change is happening."[128] [129] A 2010 poll by the Office of National Statistics found that 75% of UK respondents were at least "fairly convinced" that the world's climate is changing, compared to 87% in a similar survey in 2006.[130] A January 2011 ICM poll in the UK found 83% of respondents viewed climate change as a current or imminent threat, while 14% said it was no threat. Opinion was unchanged from an August 2009 poll asking the same question, though there had been a slight polarisation of opposing views.[131] A survey in October, 2009 by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press showed decreasing public perception in the United States that global warming was a serious problem. All political persuasions showed reduced concern with lowest concern among Republicans, only 35% of whom considered there to be solid evidence of global warming.[132] The cause of this marked difference in public opinion between the United States and the global public is uncertain but the hypothesis has been advanced that clearer communication by scientists both directly and through the media would be helpful in adequately informing the American public of the scientific consensus and the basis for it.[133] The U.S. public appears to be unaware of the extent of scientific consensus regarding the issue, with 59% believing that scientists disagree "significantly" on global warming.[134] By 2010, with 111 countries surveyed, Gallup determined that there was a substantial decrease in the number of Americans and Europeans who viewed Global Warming as a serious threat. In the United States, a little over half the population (53%) now viewed it as a serious concern for either themselves or their families; a number 10 percentage points below the 2008 poll (63%). Latin America had the biggest rise in concern, with 73% saying global warming was a serious threat to their families.[135]

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Other views
Most scientists accept that humans are contributing to observed climate change.[45] [136] National science academies have called on world leaders for policies to cut global emissions.[137] However, some scientists and non-scientists question aspects of climate-change science.[138] [139] Organizations such as the libertarian Competitive Enterprise Institute, conservative commentators, and some companies such as ExxonMobil have challenged IPCC climate change scenarios, funded scientists who disagree with the scientific consensus, and provided their own projections of the economic cost of stricter controls.[140] [141] [142] [143] In the finance industry, Deutsche Bank has set up an institutional climate change investment division (DBCCA),[144] which has commissioned and published research[145] on the issues and debate surrounding global warming.[146] Environmental organizations and public figures have emphasized changes in the current climate and the risks they entail, while promoting adaptation to changes in infrastructural needs and emissions reductions.[147] Some fossil fuel companies have scaled back their efforts in recent years,[148] or called for policies to reduce global warming.[149]

Etymology
The term global warming was probably first used in its modern sense on 8 August 1975 in a science paper by Wally Broecker in the journal Science called "Are we on the brink of a pronounced global warming?".[150] [151] [152] Broecker's choice of words was new and represented a significant recognition that the climate was warming; previously the phrasing used by scientists was "inadvertent climate modification," because while it was recognized humans could change the climate, no one was sure which direction it was going.[153] The National Academy of Sciences first used global warming in a 1979 paper called the Charney Report, it said: "if carbon dioxide continues to increase, [we find] no reason to doubt that climate changes will result and no reason to believe that these changes will be negligible."[154] The report made a distinction between referring to surface temperature changes as global warming, while referring to other changes caused by increased CO2 as climate change.[153] Global warming became more widely popular after 1988 when NASA climate scientist James Hansen used the term in a testimony to Congress.[153] He said: "global warming has reached a level such that we can ascribe with a high degree of confidence a cause and effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and the observed warming."[155]

Global warming His testimony was widely reported and afterward global warming was commonly used by the press and in public discourse.[153]

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Notes
A. ^ Increase is for years 1905 to 2005. Global surface temperature is defined in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report as the average of near-surface air temperature over land and sea surface temperature. These error bounds are constructed with a 90% confidence interval. B. ^ The 2001 joint statement was signed by the national academies of science of Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, the Caribbean, the People's Republic of China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Malaysia, New Zealand, Sweden, and the UK. The 2005 statement added Japan, Russia, and the U.S. The 2007 statement added Mexico and South Africa. The Network of African Science Academies, and the Polish Academy of Sciences have issued separate statements. Professional scientific societies include American Astronomical Society, American Chemical Society, American Geophysical Union, American Institute of Physics, American Meteorological Society, American Physical Society, American Quaternary Association, Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences, Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, European Academy of Sciences and Arts, European Geosciences Union, European Science Foundation, Geological Society of America, Geological Society of Australia, Geological Society of London-Stratigraphy Commission, InterAcademy Council, International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, International Union for Quaternary Research, National Association of Geoscience Teachers [156], National Research Council (US), Royal Meteorological Society, and World Meteorological Organization. C. ^ Note that the greenhouse effect produces an average worldwide temperature increase of about 33 °C (59 °F) compared to black body predictions without the greenhouse effect, not an average surface temperature of 33 °C (91 °F). The average worldwide surface temperature is about 14 °C (57 °F). D. ^ In the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, published in 2007, this attribution is given a probability of greater than 90%, based on expert judgement.[157] According to the US National Research Council Report – Understanding and Responding to Climate Change - published in 2008, "[most] scientists agree that the warming in recent decades has been caused primarily by human activities that have increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere."[45]

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"Report of the in-depth review of the fourth national assessment communication of Australia" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ documentation/ documents/ advanced_search/ items/ 3594. php?rec=j& priref=600004916#beg). United Nations Office at Geneva, Switzerland. p. 3. . Retrieved 2010-05-05. [126] "Rudd takes Australia inside Kyoto" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ asia-pacific/ 7124236. stm). BBC. 3 December 2007. . Retrieved 4 October 2010. [127] Pelham, Brett (2009-04-22). "Awareness, Opinions About Global Warming Vary Worldwide" (http:/ / www. gallup. com/ poll/ 117772/ Awareness-Opinions-Global-Warming-Vary-Worldwide. aspx). Gallup. . Retrieved 2009-07-14. [128] "Summary of Findings" (http:/ / people-press. org/ reports/ display. php3?ReportID=280). Little Consensus on Global Warming. Partisanship Drives Opinion. Pew Research Center. 2006-07-12. . Retrieved 2007-04-14. [129] Crampton, Thomas (2007-01-04). "More in Europe worry about climate than in U.S., poll shows" (http:/ / www. nytimes. com/ 2007/ 01/ 04/ health/ 04iht-poll. 4102536. html?_r=1). The New York Times. . Retrieved 2010-06-09. [130] "Public attitudes towards climate change and the impact on transport (January 2011 report)" (http:/ / www. dft. gov. uk/ pgr/ statistics/ datatablespublications/ trsnstatsatt/ climatejan2011report). Department for Transport. 2011. p. 8. . Retrieved 3 February 2011. [131] Damian Carrington (31 January 2011). "Public belief in climate change weathers storm, poll shows | Environment | guardian.co.uk" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ environment/ 2011/ jan/ 31/ public-belief-climate-change). The Guardian. . Retrieved 2011-02-04. [132] "Fewer Americans See Solid Evidence of Global Warming" (http:/ / people-press. org/ report/ 556/ global-warming). Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. October 22, 2009. . Retrieved February 26, 2011. [133] Robin Lloyd (February 23, 2011). "Why Are Americans So Ill-Informed about Climate Change?: Scientists and journalists debate why Americans still resist the consensus among research organizations that humans are warming the globe" (http:/ / www. scientificamerican. com/ article. cfm?id=why-are-americans-so-ill). Scientific American. Nature America, Inc.. . Retrieved February 26, 2011. [134] (http:/ / www. rasmussenreports. com/ public_content/ politics/ current_events/ environment_energy/ 59_say_scientists_disagree_significantly_over_global_warming) "59% Say Scientists Disagree 'Significantly' Over Global Warming," Rasmussen Reports [135] Pugliese, Anita (April 20, 2011). "Fewer Americans, Europeans View Global Warming as a Threat" (http:/ / www. gallup. com/ poll/ 147203/ Fewer-Americans-Europeans-View-Global-Warming-Threat. aspx). Gallup. . Retrieved 22 April 2011.

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[136] Wallace, D. and J. Houghton (March 2005). "A guide to facts and fictions about climate change" (http:/ / royalsociety. org/ Facts-and-fictions-about-climate-change/ ). UK Royal Society website. pp. 3–4. . Retrieved 2010-05-05. [137] Academia Brasileira de Ciéncias (Brazil), Royal Society of Canada, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Académie des Sciences (France), Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher Leopoldina (Germany), Indian National Science Academy, Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei (Italy), Science Council of Japan, Academia Mexicana de Ciencias, Russian Academy of Sciences, Academy of Science of South Africa, Royal Society (United Kingdom), National Academy of Sciences (United States of America) (May 2009). "G8+5 Academies’ joint statement: Climate change and the transformation of energy technologies for a low carbon future" (http:/ / www. nationalacademies. org/ includes/ G8+ 5energy-climate09. pdf). US National Academies website. . Retrieved 2010-05-05. [138] Weart, S. (July 2009). "The Public and Climate Change (cont. – since 1980). Section: After 1988" (http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ public2. htm). American Institute of Physics website. . Retrieved 2010-05-05. [139] SEPP (n.d.). "Frequently Asked Questions About Climate Change" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20080511011611/ http:/ / www. sepp. org/ FAQ/ faq. html). Science & Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) website. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. sepp. org/ FAQ/ faq. html) on 2008-05-11. . Retrieved 2010-05-05. [140] Begley, Sharon (2007-08-13). "The Truth About Denial" (http:/ / www. newsweek. com/ id/ 32482). Newsweek. . Retrieved 2007-08-13. [141] Adams, David (2006-09-20). "Royal Society tells Exxon: stop funding climate change denial" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ environment/ 2006/ sep/ 20/ oilandpetrol. business). London: The Guardian. . Retrieved 2007-08-09. [142] "Exxon cuts ties to global warming skeptics" (http:/ / www. msnbc. msn. com/ id/ 16593606). MSNBC. 2007-01-12. . Retrieved 2007-05-02. [143] Sandell, Clayton (2007-01-03). "Report: Big Money Confusing Public on Global Warming" (http:/ / abcnews. go. com/ Technology/ Business/ story?id=2767979& page=1). ABC. . Retrieved 2007-04-27. [144] "About DBCCA" (http:/ / www. dbcca. com/ dbcca/ EN/ about-us. jsp). Deutsche Bank: DB Climate Change Advisors. Frankfurt am Main: Deutsche Bank AG. 2010-05-12. . Retrieved 2010-11-05. "DB Climate Change Advisors is the brand name for the institutional climate change investment division of Deutsche Asset Management, the asset management arm of Deutsche Bank AG." [145] "Investment Research" (http:/ / www. dbcca. com/ dbcca/ EN/ investment_research. jsp). Deutsche Bank: DB Climate Change Advisors. Frankfurt am Main: Deutsche Bank AG. 2010-11-02. . Retrieved 2010-11-05. [146] Carr, Mary-Elena; Kate Brash, Robert F. Anderson (September 2010). "Climate Change: Addressing the Major Skeptic Arguments" (http:/ / www. dbcca. com/ dbcca/ EN/ _media/ DBCCAColumbiaSkepticPaper090710. pdf) (PDF). DB Climate Change Advisors: Deutsche Bank Group. p. 55. . Retrieved 2010-11-05. "The planet is warming and it is likely to continue to warm as a consequence of increased greenhouse gas emissions." [147] U.S. Global Change Research Program (June 6, 2009). "New Report Provides Authoritative Assessment of National, Regional Impacts of Global Climate Change" (http:/ / www. globalchange. gov/ images/ cir/ pdf/ Climate-Impacts-PR_june-6-2009. pdf) (PDF). Press release. . Retrieved 2009-06-27. [148] Reuters (May 18, 2007). "Greenpeace: Exxon still funding climate skeptics" (http:/ / www. usatoday. com/ weather/ climate/ globalwarming/ 2007-05-18-greenpeace-exxon_N. htm). USA Today. . Retrieved Jan 21, 2010. [149] Ceres (May 13, 2004). "Global Warming Resolutions at U.S. Oil Companies Bring Policy Commitments from Leaders, and Record High Votes at Laggards" (http:/ / www. csrwire. com/ press/ press_release/ 23395-Global-Warming-Resolutions-at-U-S-Oil-Companies-Bring-Policy-Commitments-from-Leaders-and-Record-High-Votes-at-Laggards). Press release. . Retrieved 2010-03-04. [150] Stefan (28 July 2010). "Happy 35th birthday, global warming!" (http:/ / www. realclimate. org/ index. php/ archives/ 2010/ 07/ happy-35th-birthday-global-warming/ ). RealClimate. . Retrieved 10 August 2010. "[Broecker's article is] the first of over 10,000 papers for this search term according to the ISI database of journal articles" [151] Johnson, Brad (3 August 2010). "Wally's World" (http:/ / www. foreignpolicy. com/ articles/ 2010/ 08/ 03/ wallys_world). Foreign Policy. . Retrieved 10 August 2010. [152] Wallace Broecker, "Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?" Science, vol. 189 (8 August 1975), 460-463. [153] Erik Conway. "What's in a Name? Global Warming vs. Climate Change" (http:/ / www. nasa. gov/ topics/ earth/ features/ climate_by_any_other_name. html), NASA, December 5, 2008 [154] National Academy of Science, Carbon Dioxide and Climate, Washington, D.C., 1979, p. vii. [155] U.S. Senate, Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, "Greenhouse Effect and Global Climate Change, part 2" 100th Cong., 1st sess., 23 June 1988, p. 44. [156] http:/ / www. nagt. org/ index. html [157] IPCC (2007d). "Introduction. In (section): Synthesis Report. In (book): Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.))" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ syr/ en/ mainssyr-introduction. html). Book version: IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. This version: IPCC website. . Retrieved 2010-04-26.

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20

Further reading
• Association of British Insurers (2005–06) (PDF). Financial Risks of Climate Change (http://www.climatewise. org.uk/storage/610/financial_risks_of_climate_change.pdf). • Ammann, Caspar; et al. (2007). "Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: Results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate Simulation Model" (http://www.pnas.org/cgi/reprint/104/10/3713.pdf) (PDF). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 104 (10): 3713–3718. doi:10.1073/pnas.0605064103. PMC 1810336. PMID 17360418. "Simulations with only natural forcing components included yield an early 20th century peak warming of ≈0.2 °C (≈1950 AD), which is reduced to about half by the end of the century because of increased volcanism". • Barnett, TP; Adam, JC; Lettenmaier, DP; Adam, J. C.; Lettenmaier, D. P. (2005-11-17). "Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions" (http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/ v438/n7066/abs/nature04141.html) (abstract). Nature 438 (7066): 303–309. doi:10.1038/nature04141. PMID 16292301. • Behrenfeld, MJ; O'malley, RT; Siegel, DA; Mcclain, CR; Sarmiento, JL; Feldman, GC; Milligan, AJ; Falkowski, PG et al.; et al. (2006-12-07). "Climate-driven trends in contemporary ocean productivity" (http://www.icess. ucsb.edu/~davey/MyPapers/Behrenfeld_etal_2006_Nature.pdf) (PDF). Nature 444 (7120): 752–755. doi:10.1038/nature05317. PMID 17151666. • Choi, Onelack; Fisher, Ann (May 2005). "The Impacts of Socioeconomic Development and Climate Change on Severe Weather Catastrophe Losses: Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) and the U.S." (http://www.springerlink.com/ content/m6308777613702q0/). Climate Change 58 (1–2): 149–170. doi:10.1023/A:1023459216609. • Dyurgerov, Mark B.; Meier, Mark F. (2005) (PDF). Glaciers and the Changing Earth System: a 2004 Snapshot (http://instaar.colorado.edu/other/download/OP58_dyurgerov_meier.pdf). Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research Occasional Paper #58. ISSN 0069-6145. • Emanuel, K (2005-08-04). "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years." (ftp://texmex. mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/NATURE03906.pdf) (PDF). Nature 436 (7051): 686–688. doi:10.1038/nature03906. PMID 16056221. • Hansen, James; et al. (2005-06-03). "Earth's Energy Imbalance: Confirmation and Implications" (http://pangea. stanford.edu/research/Oceans/GES205/Hansen_Science_Earth's Energy Balance.pdf) (PDF). Science 308 (5727): 1431–1435. doi:10.1126/science.1110252. PMID 15860591. • Hinrichs, Kai-Uwe; Hmelo, Laura R.; Sylva, Sean P. (2003-02-21). "Molecular Fossil Record of Elevated Methane Levels in Late Pleistocene Coastal Waters". Science 299 (5610): 1214–1217. doi:10.1126/science.1079601. PMID 12595688. • Hirsch, Tim (2006-01-11). "Plants revealed as methane source" (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/ 4604332.stm). BBC. • Hoyt, Douglas V.; Schatten, Kenneth H. (1993–11). "A discussion of plausible solar irradiance variations, 1700–1992". Journal of Geophysical Research 98 (A11): 18,895–18,906. Bibcode 1993JGR....9818895H. doi:10.1029/93JA01944. • Karnaukhov, A. V. (2001). "Role of the Biosphere in the Formation of the Earth’s Climate: The Greenhouse Catastrophe" (http://avturchin.narod.ru/Green.pdf) (PDF). Biophysics 46 (6). • Kenneth, James P.; et al. (2003-02-14). Methane Hydrates in Quaternary Climate Change: The Clathrate Gun Hypothesis (https://www.agu.org/cgi-bin/agubooks?book=ASSP0542960). American Geophysical Union. • Keppler, Frank; et al. (2006-01-18). "Global Warming – The Blame Is not with the Plants" (http://www.mpg. de/english/illustrationsDocumentation/documentation/pressReleases/2006/pressRelease200601131/index. html). Max Planck Society. • Lean, Judith L.; Wang, Y.M.; Sheeley, N.R. (2002–12). "The effect of increasing solar activity on the Sun's total and open magnetic flux during multiple cycles: Implications for solar forcing of climate" (abstract). Geophysical Research Letters 29 (24): 2224. Bibcode 2002GeoRL..29x..77L. doi:10.1029/2002GL015880.

Global warming • Lerner, K. Lee; Lerner, K. Lee; Wilmoth, Brenda (2006-07-26). Environmental issues: essential primary sources. Thomson Gale. ISBN 1-4144-0625-8. • Muscheler, Raimund, R; Joos, F; Müller, SA; Snowball, I; et al. (2005-07-28). "Climate: How unusual is today's solar activity?" (http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/raimund/publications/Muscheler_et_al_Nature2005.pdf) (PDF). Nature 436 (7012): 1084–1087. doi:10.1038/nature04045. PMID 16049429. • Oerlemans, J. (2005-04-29). "Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records" (http://www.cosis.net/ abstracts/EGU05/04572/EGU05-J-04572.pdf) (PDF). Science 308 (5722): 675–677. doi:10.1126/science.1107046. PMID 15746388. • Purse, BV; Mellor, PS; Rogers, DJ; Samuel, AR; Mertens, PP; Baylis, M; et al. (February 2005). "Climate change and the recent emergence of bluetongue in Europe" (http://www.nature.com/nrmicro/journal/v3/n2/abs/ nrmicro1090_fs.html) (abstract). Nature Reviews Microbiology 3 (2): 171–181. doi:10.1038/nrmicro1090. PMID 15685226. • Revkin, Andrew C (2005-11-05). "Rise in Gases Unmatched by a History in Ancient Ice" (http://www.nytimes. com/2005/11/25/science/earth/25core.html?ei=5090&en=d5078e33050b2b0c&ex=1290574800& adxnnl=1&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss). The New York Times. • Ruddiman, William F. (2005-12-15). Earth's Climate Past and Future (http://www.whfreeman.com/ruddiman/ ). New York: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-7167-3741-8. • Ruddiman, William F. (2005-08-01). Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum: How Humans Took Control of Climate. New Jersey: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-691-12164-8. • Solanki, SK; Usoskin, IG; Kromer, B; Schüssler, M; Beer, J; et al. (2004-10-23). "Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years." (http://cc.oulu.fi/~usoskin/personal/ nature02995.pdf) (PDF). Nature 431 (7012): 1084–1087. doi:10.1038/nature02995. PMID 15510145. • Solanki, Sami K.; et al. (2005-07-28). "Climate: How unusual is today's solar activity? (Reply)" (http://cc.oulu. fi/~usoskin/personal/sola_nature05.pdf) (PDF). Nature 436 (7050): E4–E5. doi:10.1038/nature04046. • Sowers, Todd (2006-02-10). "Late Quaternary Atmospheric CH4 Isotope Record Suggests Marine Clathrates Are Stable". Science 311 (5762): 838–840. doi:10.1126/science.1121235. PMID 16469923. • Svensmark, Henrik; et al. (2007-02-08). "Experimental evidence for the role of ions in particle nucleation under atmospheric conditions". Proceedings of the Royal Society A (FirstCite Early Online Publishing) 463 (2078): 385–396. doi:10.1098/rspa.2006.1773.(online version requires registration) • Walter, KM; Zimov, SA; Chanton, JP; Verbyla, D; Chapin Fs, 3rd; et al. (2006-09-07). "Methane bubbling from Siberian thaw lakes as a positive feedback to climate warming". Nature 443 (7107): 71–75. doi:10.1038/nature05040. PMID 16957728. • Wang, Y.-M.; Lean, J.L.; Sheeley, N.R. (2005-05-20). "Modeling the sun's magnetic field and irradiance since 1713" (http://climatesci.colorado.edu/publications/pdf/Wang_2005.pdf) (PDF). Astrophysical Journal 625 (1): 522–538. Bibcode 2005ApJ...625..522W. doi:10.1086/429689. • Royal Society (2005). "Joint science academies' statement: Global response to climate change" (http:// royalsociety.org/Joint-science-academies-statement-Global-response-to-climate-change/). Retrieved 19 April 2009.

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22

External links
Research • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http://www.ipcc.ch/) — collection of IPCC reports • NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (http://www.giss.nasa.gov/)  - Global change research • NOAA State of the Climate Report (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2011/2)  - U.S. and global monthly state of the climate reports • United States Global Change Research Program (http://www.globalchange.gov/)  - Global climate change research in the United States • Climate Change at the National Academies (http://dels.nas.edu/Climate/Climate-Change/ Reports-Academies-Findings) — repository for reports • Nature Reports Climate Change (http://www.nature.com/climate/index.html) — free-access web resource • Met Office: Climate change (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/) — UK National Weather Service • Global Science and Technology Sources on the Internet (http://www.istl.org/01-fall/internet.html) — extensive commented list of internet resources • Educational Global Climate Modelling (http://edgcm.columbia.edu/) (EdGCM) — research-quality climate change simulator • DISCOVER (http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/) — satellite-based ocean and climate data since 1979 from NASA • Global Warming Art (http://www.globalwarmingart.com/) — collection of figures and images Educational • What Is Global Warming? (http://green.nationalgeographic.com/environment/global-warming/gw-overview. html) — by National Geographic • Global Climate Change Indicators (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/indicators/)  - from NOAA • NOAA Climate Services (http://www.climate.gov/#understandingClimate)  - from NOAA • Global Warming Frequently Asked Questions (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming. html) — from NOAA • Understanding Climate Change – Frequently Asked Questions (http://www.ucar.edu/news/features/ climatechange/faqs.jsp) — from UCAR • Global Climate Change: NASA's Eyes on the Earth (http://climate.jpl.nasa.gov/) — from NASA's JPL and Caltech • OurWorld 2.0 (http://ourworld.unu.edu/en/series/climate/) — from the United Nations University • Pew Center on Global Climate Change (http://www.pewclimate.org/) — business and politics • Best Effort Global Warming Trajectories – Wolfram Demonstrations Project (http://demonstrations.wolfram. com/BestEffortGlobalWarmingTrajectories/) — by Harvey Lam • Koshland Science Museum – Global Warming Facts and Our Future (http://www.koshland-science-museum. org/exhibitgcc/) — graphical introduction from National Academy of Sciences • The Discovery of Global Warming – A History (http://www.aip.org/history/climate) — by Spencer R. Weart from The American Institute of Physics • Climate Change: Coral Reefs on the Edge (http://site.videoproject.com/coralreefs/) — A video presentation by Prof. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, University of Auckland • Climate Change Indicators in the United States (http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/indicators.html) Report by United States Environmental Protection Agency, 80 pp. • Global Warming (http://chemistry.beloit.edu/Warming/index.html) • Video on the effects of global warming on St. Lawrence Island in the Bering Sea (http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/ nova/extremeice/thin_01_q_300.html)

Instrumental temperature record

23

Instrumental temperature record

Instrumental global surface temperature record since widespread reliable measurements began in the late 19th century; see also [1]

Map of the land-based long-term monitoring stations included in the Global Historical Climatology Network. Colors indicate the length of the temperature record available at each site.

The instrumental temperature record shows fluctuations of the temperature of the global land surface and oceans. This data is collected from several thousand meteorological stations, Antarctic research stations and satellite observations of sea-surface temperature. As seen in the figure, the X axis represents the time, and the Y axis represents temperature anomaly in degree Celsius. Anomaly means departure from a baseline. In this figure, the 1961–1990 global mean temperature is used as the baseline value. The annual mean global temperature is subtracted from this base value and the result obtained is plotted on the graph corresponding to the year on X axis. Currently, the longest-running temperature record is the Central England temperature data series, that starts in 1659. The longest-running quasi-global record starts in 1850.[2]

Global records databases
Currently, the Hadley Centre maintains the HADCRUT3, a global surface temperature dataset,[3] NASA maintains GISTEMP, which provides a measure of the changing global surface temperature with monthly resolution for the period since 1880,[4] and the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) maintains the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-Monthly) data base contains historical temperature, precipitation, and pressure data for thousands of land stations worldwide.[5] Also, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), which has "the world's largest active archive"[6] of surface temperature measurements, maintains a

Instrumental temperature record global temperature record since 1880.[7]

24

The global record from 1850
The period for which reasonably reliable instrumental records of near-surface temperature exist with quasi-global coverage is generally considered to begin around 1850. Earlier records exist, but with sparser coverage and less standardized instrumentation. The temperature data for the record come from measurements from land stations and ships. On land, temperature sensors are kept in a Stevenson screen or a maximum minimum temperature system (MMTS). The sea record consists of surface ships taking sea temperature measurements from engine inlets or buckets. The land and marine records can be compared.[8] Land and sea measurement and instrument calibration is the responsibility of national meteorological services [9]. Standardization of methods is organized through the World Meteorological Organization and its predecessor, the International Meteorological Organization.[10] Currently, most meteorological observations are taken for use in weather forecasts. Centers such as ECMWF show instantaneous map of their coverage [11]; or the Hadley Centre show the coverage for the average of the year 2000 [12] . Coverage for earlier in the 20th and 19th centuries would be significantly less. While temperature changes vary both in size and direction from one location to another, the numbers from different locations are combined to produce an estimate of a global average change. There are concerns about possible uncertainties in the instrumental temperature record including the fraction of the globe covered, the effects of changing thermometer designs and observing practices, and the effects of changing land-use around the observing stations. The ocean temperature record too suffers from changing practices (such as the switch from collecting water in canvas buckets to measuring the temperature from engine intakes[13] ) but they are immune to the urban heat island effect or to changes in local land use/land cover (LULC) at the land surface station.

Warming in the instrumental temperature record

Comparison of ground based (blue) and satellite based (red: UAH; green: RSS) records of global surface temperature change from 1979-2009. Linear trends plotted since 1982.

Instrumental temperature record

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Global surface temperature change for the period 1980-2004. The blue line is the monthly average, the black line is the annual average and the red line is the 5-year running average. Data source: http:/ / www. cru. uea. ac. uk/

Most of the observed warming occurred during two periods: 1910 to 1945 and 1976 to 2000; the cooling/plateau from 1945 to 1976 has been mostly attributed to sulphate aerosol.[14] However, a study in 2008 suggests that the temperature drop of about 0.3°C in 1945 could be the apparent result of uncorrected instrumental biases in the sea surface temperature record.[13] Attribution of the temperature change to natural or anthropogenic factors is an important question: see global warming and attribution of recent climate change. Land and sea measurements independently show much the same warming since 1860.[15] The data from these stations show an average surface temperature increase of about 0.74 °C during the last 100 years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated in its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) that the temperature rise over the 100 year period from 1906–2005 was 0.74 °C [0.56 to 0.92 °C] with a confidence interval of 90%. For the last 50 years, the linear warming trend has been 0.13 °C [0.10 to 0.16 °C] per decade according to AR4. The U.S. National Academy of Sciences, both in its 2002 report to President George W. Bush, and in later publications, has strongly endorsed evidence of an average global temperature increase in the 20th century.[16] The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report found that the instrumental temperature record for the past century included urban heat island effects but that these were primarily local, having a negligible influence on global temperature trends (less than 0.006 °C per decade over land and zero over the oceans). For more information about the effects or otherwise of urbanization on the temperature record, see the main article: Urban heat island effect

Instrumental temperature record

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Spatial variability

1901–2008 global temperature trend

Global Land temperature anomaly 1880-2010. Global Ocean temperature anomaly 1880-2010.

The global temperature changes are not uniform over the globe, nor would they be expected to be, whether the changes were naturally or humanly forced. Temperature trends from 1901 are positive over most of the world's surface except for Atlantic Ocean south of Greenland, the south-eastern USA and parts of Bolivia. Warming is strongest over interior land area in Asia and North America as well as south-eastern Brazil and some area in the South Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Since 1979 temperatures increase is considerably stronger over land while cooling has been observed over some oceanic regions in the Pacific Ocean and Southern Hemisphere, the spatial pattern of ocean temperature trend in those regions is possibly related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Southern Anular Mode.[17] Seasonal temperature trends are positive over most of the globe but weak cooling is observed over the mid latitudes of the southern ocean but also over eastern Canada in spring due to strengthening of the North Atlantic Oscillation, warming is stronger over northern Europe, China and North America in winter, Europe and Asia interior in spring, Europe and north Africa in summer and northern North America, Greenland and Eastern Asia in autumn. Enhanced warming over north Eurasia is partly linked to the Northern Anular Mode,[18] [19] while in the southern hemisphere the trend toward stronger westerlies over the southern ocean favoured a cooling over much of Antarctica with the exception of the Antarctic Peninsula where strong westerlies decrease cold air outbreak from the south.[20] The Antarctic Peninsula has warmed by 2.5 °C (4.5 °F) in the past five decades at Bellingshausen Station.[21]

Instrumental temperature record

27

Calculating the global temperature
Deriving a reliable global temperature from the instrument data is not easy because the instruments are not evenly distributed across the planet, the hardware and observing locations have changed over the years, and there has been extensive land use change (such as urbanization) around some of the sites. The calculation needs to filter out the changes that have occurred over time that are not climate related (e.g. urban heat islands), then interpolate across regions where instrument data has historically been sparse (e.g. in the southern hemisphere and at sea), before an average can be taken. There are three main datasets showing analyses of global temperatures, all developed since the late 1970s: the HadCRUT analysis is compiled in a collaboration between the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research,[22][23], independent analyses largely based on the same raw data are produced using different levels of interpolation by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies and by the National Climatic Data Center.[24] These datasets are updated on a monthly basis and are generally in close agreement. In the late 1990s, the Goddard team used the same data to produce a global map of temperature anomalies to illustrate the difference between the current temperature and average temperatures prior to 1950 across every part of the globe.[25]

Temperature processing software
In September 2007, the GISTEMP software which is used to process the GISS version of the historical instrument data was made public. The software that was released has been developed over more than 20 years by numerous staff and is mostly in FORTRAN; large parts of it were developed in the 1980s before massive amounts of computer memory was available as well as modern programming languages and techniques. Two recent open source projects have been developed by individuals to re-write the processing software in modern open code. One, http:/ / www. opentemp. org/ , was by John van Vliet. More recently, a project which began in April 2008 (Clear Climate Code [26]) by staff of Ravenbrook Ltd to update the code to Python has so far detected two minor bugs in the original software which did not significantly change any results.[27]

Uncertainties in the temperature record
A number of scientists and scientific organizations have expressed concern about the possible deterioration of the land surface observing network.[28] [29] [30] [31] Climate scientist Roger A. Pielke has stated that he has identified a number of sites where poorly sited stations in sparse regions "will introduce spatially unrepresentative data into the analyses."[32] University of Alabama-Huntsville professor of atmospheric science and former IPCC lead author John Christy has stated that "[t]he temperature records cannot be relied on as indicators of global change."[33] The metadata needed to quantify the uncertainty from poorly sited stations does not currently exist. Pielke has called for a similar documentation effort for the rest of the world.[34] The uncertainty in annual measurements of the global average temperature (95% range) is estimated to be ≈0.05°C since 1950 and as much as ≈0.15°C in the earliest portions of the instrumental record. The error in recent years is dominated by the incomplete coverage of existing temperature records. Early records also have a substantial uncertainty driven by systematic concerns over the accuracy of sea surface temperature measurements.[35] [36] Station densities are highest in the northern hemisphere, providing more confidence in climate trends in this region. Station densities are far lower in other regions such as the tropics, northern Asia and the former Soviet Union. This results in less confidence in the robustness of climate trends in these areas. If a region with few stations includes a poor quality station, the impact on global temperature would be greater than in a grid with many weather stations.[37]

Instrumental temperature record

28

Evaluation of the United States land surface temperature record
In 1999 a panel of the U.S. National Research Council studied the state of US climate observing systems.[38] The panel evaluated many climate measurement aspects, 4 of which had to do with temperature, against ten climate monitoring principles proposed by Karl et al. 1995. Land surface temperature had "known serious deficiencies" in 5 principles, vertical distribution and sea surface in 9 and subsurface ocean in 7. The U.S. National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Program has established minimum standards regarding the instrumentation, siting, and reporting of surface temperature stations.[39] The observing systems available are able to detect year-to-year temperature variations such as those caused by El Niño or volcanic eruptions.[40] These stations can undergo undocumented changes such as relocation, changes in instrumentation and exposure (including changes in nearby thermally emitting structures), changes in land use (e.g., urbanization), and changes in observation practices. All of these changes can introduce biases into the stations' long term records. In the past, these local biases were generally considered to be random and therefore would cancel each other out using many stations and the ocean record.[40] A 2006 paper analyzed a subset of U.S. surface stations, 366 stations, and found that 95% displayed a warming trend after land use/land cover (LULC) changes. The authors stated "this does not necessarily imply that the LULC changes are the causative factor."[41] Another study [42] has documented examples of well and poorly sited monitoring stations in the United States, including ones near buildings, roadways, and air conditioning exhausts. Brooks investigated Historical Climate Network (USHCN) sites in Indiana, and assigned 16% of the sites an ‘excellent’ rating, 59% a ‘good’ rating, 12.5% a ‘fair’ rating, and 12.5% ‘poor’ rating.[43] Davey and Pielke visited 10 HCN sites in Eastern Colorado, but did not provide percentages of good or badly sited stations. They stated that some of the sites "are not at all representative of their surrounding region" and should be replaced in the instrumental temperature records with other sites from the U.S. cooperative observer network.[44] Peterson has argued that existing empirical techniques for validating the local and regional consistency of temperature data are adequate to identify and remove biases from station records, and that such corrections allow information about long-term trends to be preserved.[45] Pielke and co-authors disagree.[46]

Warmest years
The list of warmest years on record is dominated by years from this millennium; each of the last 10 years (2001–2010) features as one of the 11 warmest on record. Although the NCDC temperature record begins in 1880, less accurate reconstructions of earlier temperatures suggest these years may be the warmest for several centuries to millennia.

20 warmest years on record (°C anomaly from 1901–2000 mean)
Year 2005 2010 1998 2003 2002 2006 2009 [50] [51] [52] [53] [54] [55] [56] Global [47] Land [48] Ocean [49]

0.6183 0.6171 0.5984 0.5832 0.5762 0.5623 0.5591

0.9593 0.9642 0.8320 0.7735 0.8318 0.8158 0.7595

0.4896 0.4885 0.5090 0.5108 0.4798 0.4669 0.4848

Instrumental temperature record
[57] [58] [59] [60]

29
0.5509 0.5441 0.5188 0.4842 0.4799 0.4210 0.4097 0.3899 0.3879 0.3380 0.3028 0.2991 0.2954 0.2839 0.9852 0.7115 0.7207 0.7801 0.5583 0.6759 0.6533 0.5174 0.5479 0.4087 0.4192 0.2959 0.3604 0.3715 0.3900 0.4819 0.4419 0.3745 0.4502 0.3240 0.3196 0.3409 0.3283 0.3110 0.2595 0.3005 0.2704 0.2513

2007 2004 2001 2008

1997 1999 [61]

1995 2000 [62]

1990 1991 1988 1987 1994 1983

The values in the table above are anomalies from the 1901–2000 global mean of 13.9°C.[63] For instance, the +0.55°C anomaly in 2007 added to the 1901–2000 mean of 13.9°C gives a global average temperature of 14.45 °C (58.00 °F) for 2007.[64] The coolest year in the record was 1911.[47]

Warmest Decades
Numerous cycles have been found to influence annual global mean temperatures. The tropical El Niño-La Niña cycle and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are the most well-known of these cycles.[65] An examination of the average global temperature changes by decades reveals continuing climate change.[66] Following chart is from NASA data [67] of combined land-surface air and sea-surface water temperature anomalies [68].

1880-2010 Global annual and decadal mean surface temperature change.

Instrumental temperature record

30

Years

Temp. anomaly (°C anomaly (°F anomaly) from 1951–1980 mean)

1880–1889 −0.274 °C (−0.493 °F) 1890–1899 −0.254 °C (−0.457 °F) 1900–1909 −0.259 °C (−0.466 °F) 1910–1919 −0.276 °C (−0.497 °F) 1920–1929 −0.175 °C (−0.315 °F) 1930–1939 −0.043 °C (−0.0774 °F) 1940–1949 0.035 °C (0.0630 °F) 1950–1959 −0.02 °C (−0.0360 °F) 1960–1969 −0.014 °C (−0.0252 °F) 1970–1979 −0.001 °C (−0.00180 °F) 1980–1989 0.176 °C (0.317 °F) 1990–1999 0.313 °C (0.563 °F) 2000–2009 0.513 °C (0.923 °F)

References
[1] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ figspm-1. htm [2] Brohan, P., J.J. Kennedy, I. Harris, S.F.B. Tett, P.D. Jones (2006). "Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850". J. Geophys. Res. 111: D12106. Bibcode 2006JGRD..11112106B. doi:10.1029/2005JD006548. [3] "Climate monitoring and data sets" (http:/ / www. metoffice. gov. uk/ research/ climate/ climate-monitoring). Met Office. . Retrieved 2011-02-11. [4] "Datasets & Images – GISS Surface Temperature Analysis" (http:/ / data. giss. nasa. gov/ gistemp/ ). Goddard Institute for Space Studies. . Retrieved 2007-07-13. [5] "GHCN-Monthly Version 2" (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ oa/ climate/ ghcn-monthly/ index. php). NOAA. . Retrieved 2007-07-13. [6] NCDC State of the Climate Global Analysis, April 2010 (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2010& month=4) [7] "Global Surface Temperature Anomalies" (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ cmb-faq/ anomalies. html). National Climatic Data Center. . Retrieved 2010-06-16. [8] Houghton et al. (eds) (2001). "Climate Change 2001: Working Group I: The Scientific Basis – Figure 2.6" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ fig2-6. htm). IPCC. . Retrieved 2007-07-13. [9] http:/ / www. wmo. int/ pages/ members/ index_en. html [10] (PDF) Guide to the Global Observing System (http:/ / www. wmo. ch/ pages/ prog/ www/ OSY/ Manual/ 488_Guide_2007. pdf). WMO. 2007. ISBN 92-63-13488-3. . Retrieved 2007-07-13. [11] http:/ / www. ecmwf. int/ products/ forecasts/ d/ overview/ monitoring/ coverage/ dcover!ssmi!00!pop!od!oper!w_coverage!latest!obs/ [12] http:/ / www. meto. gov. uk/ research/ hadleycentre/ CR_data/ Annual/ HadCRUTanm_2000. gif [13] Thompson D.W.J., J.J. Kennedy, J.M. Wallace and P.D. Jones (2008). "A large discontinuity in the mid-twentieth century in observed global-mean surface temperature". Nature 453 (7195): 646–649. doi:10.1038/nature06982. PMID 18509442. [14] Houghton et al.(eds) (2001). "Climate Change 2001: Working Group I: The Scientific Basis – Chapter 12: Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 462. htm). IPCC. . Retrieved 2007-07-13. [15] Houghton et al.(eds) (2001). "Climate Change 2001: Working Group I: The Scientific Basis – Chapter 2: Observed Climate Variability and Change" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ fig2-6. htm). IPCC. . Retrieved 2007-07-13. [16] "Understanding and Responding to Climate Change – Highlights of National Academies Reports" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20070611231645/ http:/ / dels. nas. edu/ dels/ rpt_briefs/ climate-change-final. pdf) (PDF). United States National Academies. 2005. Archived from the original (http:/ / dels. nas. edu/ dels/ rpt_briefs/ climate-change-final. pdf) on 2007-06-11. . Retrieved 2007-07-13. [17] "IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Chapter 3" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter3. pdf) (PDF). 2007-02-05. pp. 250–251. . Retrieved 2009-03-14. [18] Polyakov, I.V.; Roman V. Bekryaev, Uma S. Bhatt, Roger L. Colony, Alexander P. Maskshtas, David Walsh,Roman V. Bekryaev and Genrikh V. Alekseev (2003). "Variability and trends of air temperature in the Maritime Arctic" (http:/ / ams. allenpress. com/ perlserv/ ?request=res-loc& uri=urn:ap:pdf:doi:10. 1175/ 1520-0442(2003)016<2067:VATOAT>2. 0. CO;2). J. Clim. 16: 2067–2077. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<2067:VATOAT>2.0.CO;2. .

Instrumental temperature record
[19] Liu, J.P.; J.A. Curry, Y.J. Da, Radley Horton (2007). "Causes of the northern high-latitude land surface winter climate change" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 2007/ 2007GL030196. shtml). Geophys. Res. Lett. 34: L14702. Bibcode 2007GeoRL..3414702L. doi:10.1029/2007GL030196. . [20] David W. J. Thompson and Susan Solomon (2002). "Interpretation of Recent Southern Hemisphere Climate Change" (http:/ / ao. atmos. colostate. edu/ other_papers/ ThompsonSolomon_Science2002. pdf). Science 296 (5569): 895–899. doi:10.1126/science.1069270. PMID 11988571. . [21] "Antarctic temperature data – Monthly mean surface temperature data and derived statistics for some Antarctic stations" (http:/ / www. antarctica. ac. uk/ met/ gjma/ ). British Antarctic Survey. . Retrieved 2007-07-13. [22] http:/ / www. cru. uea. ac. uk/ cru/ about/ history/ [23] http:/ / www. metoffice. gov. uk/ hadobs/ hadcrut3/ [24] Met Office Hadley Centre observations datasets FAQ (http:/ / www. metoffice. gov. uk/ hadobs/ indicators/ index. html) "GISS Surface Temperature Analysis" (http:/ / data. giss. nasa. gov/ gistemp/ ). . NCDC: Global Surface Temperature Anomalies (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ cmb-faq/ anomalies. html) [25] Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, J. Glascoe, Mki. Sato (1999). "GISS analysis of surface temperature change" (http:/ / pubs. giss. nasa. gov/ abstracts/ 1999/ Hansen_etal. html). J. Geophys. Res. 104: 30997–31022. Bibcode 1999JGR...10430997H. doi:10.1029/1999JD900835. . [26] http:/ / clearclimatecode. org/ [27] "GISS Surface Temperature Analysis – Updates to Analysis" (http:/ / data. giss. nasa. gov/ gistemp/ updates/ ). NASA. . Retrieved 2008-10-16. [28] UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE (http:/ / unfccc. int/ cop3/ resource/ docs/ 1997/ sbsta/ misc06. htm) October 1997

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[29] Menne MJ, Frederick HV, Del Greco SA (2005). "Monitoring the health of weather and climate observing networks" (http:/ / ams. confex. com/ ams/ Annual2005/ techprogram/ paper_84693. htm). 21st International Conference on Interactive Information Processing Systems (IIPS) for Meteorology, Oceanography, and Hydrology. . [30] "Monitoring the Health of Weather and Climate Observing Networks" (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ oa/ hofn/ ). Health of the Networks. National Climatic Data Center. . [31] The Need for a Systems Approach to Climate Observations (http:/ / www. cgd. ucar. edu/ cas/ trenberth. pdf/ sysneedBAMS. pdf) Trenberth, Karl, and Spence [32] Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr. Research Group Weblog (http:/ / climatesci. colorado. edu/ 2006/ 12/ 12/ new-evidence-of-temperature-observing-sites-which-are-poorly-sited-with-resepct-to-the-construction-of-global-average-land-surface-temperature-trends/ ) [33] The Sunday Times, February 14, 2010 (http:/ / www. timesonline. co. uk/ tol/ news/ environment/ article7026317. ece) [34] Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr. Research Group Weblog (http:/ / climatesci. org/ 2007/ 06/ 01/ more-on-obtaining-global-historical-climate-network-sites/ ) [35] Brohan, P., J.J. Kennedy, I. Haris, S.F.B. Tett, P.D. Jones (2006). "Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850" (http:/ / www. cru. uea. ac. uk/ cru/ data/ temperature/ HadCRUT3_accepted. pdf) (PDF). J. Geophys. Res. 111: D12106. Bibcode 2006JGRD..11112106B. doi:10.1029/2005JD006548. . [36] Folland, C.K., N.A. Rayner, S.J. Brown, T.M. Smith, S.S.P. Shen, D.E. Parker, I. Macadam, P.D. Jones, R.N. Jones, N. Nicholls, D.M.H. Sexton (2001). "Global temperature change and its uncertainties since 1861" (http:/ / www. geog. ox. ac. uk/ ~mnew/ teaching/ Online_Articles/ folland_et_al_temp_uncertainties_GRL_2001. PDF) (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters 28: 2621–2624. Bibcode 2001GeoRL..28.2621F. doi:10.1029/2001GL012877. . [37] Davey, C.A.; Pielke Sr., R.A. (2007?). Comparing Station Density and Reported Temperature Trends for Land-Surface Sites, 1979-2004 (http:/ / climatesci. colorado. edu/ publications/ pdf/ R-319. pdf). Roger A. Pielke Sr. (submitted to Climatic change). . Retrieved 2007-07-13. [38] Adequacy of Climate Observing Systems (http:/ / books. nap. edu/ catalog. php?record_id=6424) [39] NOAA National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Program: Proper Siting (http:/ / www. nws. noaa. gov/ om/ coop/ standard. htm) [40] Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences. (http:/ / www. climatescience. gov/ Library/ sap/ sap1-1/ finalreport/ default. htm) Thomas R. Karl, Susan J. Hassol, Christopher D. Miller, and William L. Murray, editors, 2006. A Report by the Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington, DC. [41] Land use/land cover change effects on temperature trends at U.S. Climate Normals stations (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 2006. . . / 2006GL026358. shtml) [42] Mahmood R, Foster SA, Logan D (2006). "The GeoProfile metadata, exposure of instruments, and measurement bias in climatic record revisited" (http:/ / www3. interscience. wiley. com/ cgi-bin/ abstract/ 112518278/ ABSTRACT). International Journal of Climatology 26 (8): 1091–1124. doi:10.1002/joc.1298. . [43] Indiana State Climate Office (http:/ / www. agry. purdue. edu/ climate/ / hcn. asp) [44] Bulleting of the American Meteorological Society (http:/ / pielkeclimatesci. files. wordpress. com/ 2009/ 10/ r-274. pdf) Volume 86 Number 4 April 2005 [45] Examination of Potential Biases in Air Temperature Caused By Poor Station Locations (http:/ / ams. allenpress. com/ archive/ 1520-0477/ 87/ 8/ pdf/ i1520-0477-87-8-1073. pdf) Peterson, Thomas [46] Documentation of Uncertainties and Biases Associated with Surface Temperature Measurement Sites for Climate Change Assessment (http:/ / ams. allenpress. com/ archive/ 1520-0477/ 88/ 6/ pdf/ i1520-0477-88-6-913. pdf) Pielke et alia.

Instrumental temperature record
[47] NCDC: The Annual Global (land and ocean combined) Anomalies (ftp:/ / ftp. ncdc. noaa. gov/ pub/ data/ anomalies/ annual. land_ocean. 90S. 90N. df_1901-2000mean. dat) [48] NCDC: The Annual Global Land Temperature Anomalies (ftp:/ / ftp. ncdc. noaa. gov/ pub/ data/ anomalies/ annual. land. 90S. 90N. df_1901-2000mean. dat) [49] NCDC: The Annual Global Ocean Temperature Anomalies (ftp:/ / ftp. ncdc. noaa. gov/ pub/ data/ anomalies/ annual. ocean. 90S. 90N. df_1901-2000mean. dat) [50] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2005& month=13 [51] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2010& month=13 [52] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=1998& month=13 [53] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2003& month=13 [54] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2002& month=13 [55] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2006& month=13 [56] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2009& month=13 [57] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2007& month=13 [58] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2004& month=13 [59] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2001& month=13 [60] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2008& month=13 [61] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=1999& month=13 [62] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ ?report=global& year=2000& month=13 [63] NCDC: Global Surface Temperature Anomalies: Global Mean Temperature Estimates (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ cmb-faq/ anomalies. html#mean) [64] NCDC State of the Climate Global Analysis, Annual 2007 (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ sotc/ index. php?report=global& year=2007& month=13) [65] Natural Climate Oscillations of Short Duration and the Long Term Climate Warming – Sorting Out the Climate System USGCRP Seminar, 20 March 2000 Updated 13 August, 2004 (http:/ / www. usgcrp. gov/ usgcrp/ seminars/ 000320FO. html) [66] NASA Research Finds Last Decade was Warmest on Record, 2009 One of Warmest Years (http:/ / www. nasa. gov/ home/ hqnews/ 2010/ jan/ HQ_10-017_Warmest_temps. html) [67] http:/ / data. giss. nasa. gov/ gistemp/ tabledata/ GLB. Ts+ dSST. txt [68] http:/ / data. giss. nasa. gov/ gistemp/

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• IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) WGI Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) (http://www.ipcc.ch/ SPM2feb07.pdf) • Global average temperature for the last 150 years (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/figspm-1.htm) and discussion (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/056.htm#fig27) of trends • Preliminary data from the last 2000 years (ftp://holocene.evsc.virginia.edu/pub/mann/mannjones03.pdf)

External links
• The EdGCM project has provided GISTEMP stations in (http://dev.edgcm.columbia.edu/wiki/GISTEMP/) Google Earth • GISTemp – A Human View (http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/11/09/gistemp-a-human-view/), introduction & overview, how it's made. • Met.office Global-average temperature records (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/science/ explained/explained5.html), condensed explanation

Temperature record of the past 1000 years

33

Temperature record of the past 1000 years
For information on the description of the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age in various IPCC reports see MWP and LIA in IPCC reports The temperature record of the 2nd millennium describes the reconstruction of temperatures since 1000 CE on the Northern Hemisphere, later extended back to 1 CE and also to cover the southern hemisphere. A reconstruction is needed because a reliable surface temperature record exists only since about 1850. Studying past climate is of interest for scientists in order to improve the understanding of current climate variability and, relatedly, providing a better basis for future climate projections. In particular, if the nature and magnitude of natural climate variability can be Reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperatures for the 2nd millennium established, scientists will be able to better according to various older articles (bluish lines), newer articles (reddish lines), and detect and attribute anthropogenic global instrumental record (black line) warming. Note, however, that although temperature reconstructions from proxy data help us understand the character of natural climate variability, attribution of recent climate change relies on a broad range of methodologies of which the proxy reconstructions are only a small part.[1] [2] According to all major temperature reconstructions published in peer-reviewed journals (see graph), the increase in temperature in the 20th century and the temperature in the late 20th century is the highest in the record. Attention has tended to focus on the early work of Michael E. Mann, Bradley and Hughes (1998), whose "hockey stick" graph was featured in the 2001 United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. The methodology and data sets used in creating the Mann et al. (1998) version of the hockey stick graph are disputed by Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick, but the graph is overall acknowledged by the scientific community.

Temperature record of the past 1000 years

34

General techniques and accuracy
By far the best observed period is from 1850 to the present day, with coverage improving over time. Over this period the recent instrumental record, mainly based on direct thermometer readings, has approximately global coverage. It shows a general warming in global temperatures. Before this time various proxies must be used. These proxies are less accurate than direct thermometer measurements, have lower temporal resolution, and have less spatial coverage. Their only advantage is that they enable a longer record to be reconstructed. Since the direct temperature record is more accurate than the proxies (indeed, it is needed to calibrate them) it is used when available: i.e, from 1850 onwards.

Instrumental Temperature record of the last 150 years.

Quantitative methods using proxy data
As there are few instrumental records before 1850, temperatures before then must be reconstructed based on proxy methods. One such method, based on principles of dendroclimatology, uses the width and other characteristics of tree rings to infer temperature. The isotopic composition of snow, corals, and stalactites can also be used to infer temperature. Other techniques which have been used include examining records of the time of crop harvests, the treeline in various locations, and other historical records to make inferences about the temperature. These proxy reconstructions are indirect inferences of temperature and thus tend to have greater uncertainty than instrumental data. In general, the recent history of the proxy records is calibrated against local temperature records to estimate the relationship between temperature and the proxy. The longer history of the proxy is then used to reconstruct temperature from earlier periods. Proxy records must be averaged in some fashion if a global or hemispheric record is desired. Considerable care must be taken in the averaging process; for example, if a certain region has a large number of tree ring records, a simple average of all the data would strongly over-weight that region. Hence data-reduction techniques such as principal components analysis are used to combine some of these regional records before they are globally combined. An important distinction is between so-called 'multi-proxy' reconstructions, which attempt to obtain a global temperature reconstructions by using multiple proxy records distributed over the globe and more regional reconstructions. Usually, the various proxy records are combined arithmetically, in some weighted average. More recently, Osborn and Briffa used a simpler technique, counting the proportion of records that are positive, negative or neutral in any time period.[3] [4] This produces a result in general agreement with the conventional multi-proxy studies. Several reconstructions suggest there was minimal variability in temperatures prior to the 20th century (see, for example, [5]). More recently, Mann and Jones have extended their reconstructions to cover the 1st and 2nd millennia (GRL, 2003 [6] ). The work was reproduced by Wahl and Ammann in 2005 according to a press release [7] published

Temperature record of the past 1000 years computer code [8] and a paper in press.[9] The Mann, Bradley and Hughes (1998) version of the temperature record is known as the "Hockey Stick" graph, first coined by Jerry Mahlman, director of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. The work of Mann et al., Jones et al., Briffa and others [10] [11] forms a major part of the IPCC's conclusion that "the rate and magnitude of global or hemispheric surface 20th century warming is likely to have been the largest of the millennium, with the 1990s and 1998 likely to have been the warmest decade and year".[12]

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Qualitative reconstruction using historical records
It is also possible to use historical data such as times of grape harvests, sea-ice-free periods in harbours and diary entries of frost or heatwaves to produce indications of when it was warm or cold in particular regions. These records are harder to calibrate, are often only available sparsely through time, may be available only from developed regions, and are unlikely to come with good error estimates. These historical observations of the same time period show periods of both warming and cooling. Astrophysicist Sallie Baliunas notes that these temperature variations correlate with solar activity[13] and asserts that the number of observed sunspots give us a rough measure of how bright the sun is. Balunias and others have suggested that periods of decreased solar radiation are partially responsible for historically recorded periods of cooling such as the Maunder Minimum and the Little Ice Age. The same argument would imply that periods of increased solar radiation contributed to the Medieval Warm Period, when Greenland's icy coastal areas thawed enough to permit farming and colonisation.

Limitations
The apparent differences between the quantitative and qualitative approaches are not fully reconciled. The reconstructions mentioned above rely on various assumptions to generate their results. If these assumptions do not hold, the reconstructions would be unreliable. For quantitative reconstructions, the most fundamental assumptions are that proxy records vary with temperature and that non-temperature factors do not confound the results. In the historical records temperature fluctuations may be regional rather than hemispheric in scale. In a letter to Nature (August 10, 2006) Bradley, Hughes and Mann[14] pointed at the original title of their 1998 article: Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: inferences, uncertainties, and limitations[15] and pointed out more widespread high-resolution data are needed before more confident conclusions can be reached and that the uncertainties were the point of the article.

The hockey stick controversy
There is an ongoing debate about the details of the temperature record and the means of its reconstruction, centered on the Mann, Bradley and Hughes (1998), "hockey stick" graph. Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick [16] claimed various errors in the methodology of Mann et al. (1998) and that the method of Mann, Bradley, and Hughes when tested on persistent red noise, nearly always produces a hockey stick shaped first principal component. In turn, Michael E. Mann (supported by Tim Osborn, Keith Briffa and Phil Jones of the Climatic Research Unit) has disputed the claims made by McIntyre and McKitrick.[17] [18] The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report says that McIntyre and McKitrick "may have some theoretical foundation, but Wahl and Ammann (2006)[9] also show that the impact on the amplitude of the final reconstruction is very small (~0.05°C)."[19]

Temperature record of the past 1000 years

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References
[1] Houghton 2001 12. Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 439. htm) [2] "What If … the "Hockey Stick" Were Wrong?" (http:/ / www. realclimate. org/ index. php/ archives/ 2005/ 01/ what-if-the-hockey-stick-were-wrong/ ). RealClimate. 2005-01-27. . [3] Osborn, T. J.; Briffa, K. R. (2006). "The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 311/ 5762/ 841). Science (AAAS) 311 (5762): 841–844. doi:10.1126/science.1120514. PMID 16469924. . [4] "A New Take on an Old Millennium" (http:/ / www. realclimate. org/ index. php/ archives/ 2006/ 02/ a-new-take-on-an-old-millennium/ ). RealClimate. 2006-02-09. . [5] http:/ / www. cru. uea. ac. uk/ cru/ info/ milltemp/ [6] Mann ME, Jones PD (August 2003). "Global Surface Temperatures over the Past Two Millennia" (http:/ / www. ngdc. noaa. gov/ paleo/ pubs/ mann2003b/ mann2003b. html). Global Surface Temperatures over the Past Two Millennia 30 (15): 1820. doi:10.1029/2003GL017814. . [7] The Hockey Stick Controversy: New Analysis Reproduces Graph of Late 20th Century Temperature Rise - Media Advisory (http:/ / www. ucar. edu/ news/ releases/ 2005/ ammann. shtml) [8] R Code for Mann-Bradley-Hughes (MBH) Northern Hemisphere Temperature Reconstruction (http:/ / www. cgd. ucar. edu/ ccr/ ammann/ millennium/ CODES_MBH. html) [9] Wahl ER, Ammann CM (November 2007). "Robustness of the Mann, Bradley, Hughes reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures: Examination of criticisms based on the nature and processing of proxy climate evidence" (http:/ / www. cgd. ucar. edu/ ccr/ ammann/ millennium/ refs/ Wahl_ClimChange2007. pdf) (PDF). Climatic Change 85 (1-2): 33–69. doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9105-7. . [10] Houghton 2001 Figure 2.20: Millennial Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstruction (blue) and instrumental data (red) from AD 1000 to 1999 (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ fig2-20. htm) [11] Houghton 2001 Figure 2.21: Comparison of warm-season and annual mean multi-proxy-based and warm season tree-ring-based millennial Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ fig2-21. htm) [12] Houghton 2001 2.3.5 Summary (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 071. htm) [13] Powell, Alvin (April 24, 2003). "Sun's warming is global: CfA lecture links solar activity and climate change" (http:/ / www. news. harvard. edu/ gazette/ 2003/ 04. 24/ 04-sun. html). Harvard University Gazette. . Retrieved 2007-04-17. [14] Bradley RS, Hughes MK, Mann ME (August 2006). "Authors were clear about hockey-stick uncertainties". Nature 442 (7103): 627. doi:10.1038/442627b. PMID 16900179. [15] Mann ME, Bradley RS, Hughes MK (1999). "Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: Inferences, uncertainties, and limitations" (https:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ paleo/ pubs/ millennium-camera. pdf) (PDF). Geophys. Res. Lett. 26 (6): 759–762. doi:10.1029/1999GL900070. . [16] McIntyre S, McKitrick R (2005). "Hockey sticks, principal components, and spurious significance" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 2005/ 2004GL021750. shtml). Geophys. Res. Lett. 32: L03710. doi:10.1029/2004GL021750. . [17] (http:/ / www. cru. uea. ac. uk/ ~timo/ paleo/ ) [18] Michael E. Mann, Raymond S. Bradley, Malcolm K. Hughes Note on Paper by McIntyre and McKitrick in "Energy and Environment" (http:/ / www. meteo. psu. edu/ ~mann/ shared/ articles/ EandEPaperProblem. pdf) [19] Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Ch. 6 (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter6. pdf)

External links
• Houghton, John Theodore, ed (2001). Climate change 2001: the scientific basis: contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http://www.grida.no/ climate/ipcc_tar/wg1). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0-521-80767-0. • A collection of various reconstructions of global and local temperature from centuries on up (http://www.ngdc. noaa.gov/paleo/recons.html) • An NOAA collection of individual data records (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/data.html) • Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years (http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11676.html)

Historical climatology

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Historical climatology
Historical climatology is the study of historical changes in climate and their effect on human history and development. This differs from paleoclimatology which encompasses climate change over the entire history of the earth. The study seeks to define periods in human history where temperature or precipitation varied from what is observed in the present day. The primary sources include written records such as sagas, chronicles, maps and local history literature as well as pictorial representations such as paintings, drawings and even rock art. The archaeological record is equally important in establishing evidence of settlement, water and land usage.

Techniques of historical climatology
In literate societies, historians may find written evidence of climatic variations over hundreds or thousands of years, such as phenological records of natural processes, for example viticultural records of grape harvest dates. In preliterate or non-literate societies, researchers must rely on other techniques to find evidence of historical climate differences. Past population levels and habitable ranges of humans or plants and animals may be used to find evidence of past differences in climate for the region. Palynology, the study of pollens, can show not only the range of plants and to reconstruct possible ecology, but to estimate the amount of precipitation in a given time period, based on the abundance of pollen in that layer of sediment or ice.

Evidence of climatic variations
The eruption of the Toba supervolcano, 70,000 to 75,000 years ago reduced the average global temperature by 5 degrees Celsius for several years and may have triggered an ice age. It has been postulated that this created a bottleneck in human evolution. A much smaller but similar effect occurred after the eruption of Krakatoa in 1883, when global temperatures fell for about 5 years in a row. Before the retreat of glaciers at the start of the Holocene (~9600 BC), ice sheets covered much of the northern latitudes and sea levels were much lower than they are today. The start of our present interglacial period appears to have helped spur the development of human civilization.

Human record
Evidence of a warm climate in Europe, for example, comes from archaeological studies of settlement and farming in the Early Bronze Age at altitudes now beyond cultivation, such as Dartmoor, Exmoor, the Lake district and the Pennines in England. The climate appears to have deteriorated towards the Late Bronze Age however. Settlements and field boundaries have been found at high altitude in these areas, which are now wild and uninhabitable. They include Dartmoor and Exmoor as well as the Pennines and Lake District in the United Kingdom. Grimspound on Dartmoor is well preserved and shows the standing remains of an extensive settlement in a now inhospitable environment.
The 16th-century Skálholt map of Norse America

Some parts of the present Saharan desert may have been populated when the climate was cooler and wetter, judging by cave art and other signs of settlement in Prehistoric Central North Africa.

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The Medieval Warm Period was a time of warm weather between about AD 800–1300, during the European Medieval period. Archaeological evidence supports studies of the Norse sagas whuich describe the settlement of Greenland in the 9th century AD of land now quite unsuitable for cultivation. For example, excavations at one settlement site have shown the presence of birch trees during the early Viking period. The same period records the discovery of an area called Vinland, probably in North America, which may also have been warmer than at present, judging by the alleged presence of grape vines. The interlude is known as the Medieval Warm Period.

One of Grimspound's hut circles

Little Ice Age
Later examples include the Little Ice Age, well documented by paintings, documents (such as diaries) and events such as the River Thames frost fairs held on frozen lakes and rivers in the 17th and 18th centuries. The River Thames was made more narrow and flowed faster after old London Bridge was demolished in 1831, and the river was embanked in stages during the 19th century, both of which made the river less liable to freezing. Among the earliest references to the coming climate change is an entry in the Anglo-Saxon Chronicles dated 1046: • "And in this same year after the 2nd of February came the severe winter with frost and snow, and with all kinds of bad weather, so that there was no man alive who could remember so severe a winter as that, both through mortality of men and disease of cattle; both birds and fishes perished through the great cold and hunger." The Chronicle is the single most important historical source for the period in England between the departure of the Romans and the decades following the Norman Conquest. Much of the information given in the Chronicle is not recorded elsewhere. The Little Ice Age brought colder winters to parts of Europe and North America. In the mid-17th century, glaciers in the Swiss Alps advanced, gradually engulfing farms and crushing entire villages. The River Thames and the canals and rivers of the Netherlands often froze over during the winter, and people skated and even held frost fairs on the ice. The first Thames frost fair was in 1607; the last in 1814, although changes to the bridges and the addition of an embankment affected the river flow and depth, hence The Frozen Thames, 1677 diminishing the possibility of freezes. The freeze of the Golden Horn and the southern section of the Bosphorus took place in 1622. In 1658, a Swedish army marched across the Great Belt to Denmark to invade Copenhagen. The Baltic Sea froze over, enabling sledge rides from Poland to Sweden, with seasonal inns built on the way. The winter of 1794/1795 was particularly harsh when the French invasion army under Pichegru could march on the frozen rivers of the Netherlands, while the Dutch fleet was fixed in the ice in Den Helder harbour. In the winter of 1780, New York Harbour froze, allowing people to walk from Manhattan to Staten Island. Sea ice surrounding Iceland extended for miles in every direction, closing that island's harbours to shipping.

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The severe winters affected human life in ways large and small. The population of Iceland fell by half, but this was perhaps also due to fluorosis caused by the eruption of the volcano Laki in 1783.Iceland also suffered failures of cereal crops and people moved away from a grain-based diet. The Norse colonies in Greenland starved and vanished (by the 15th century) as crops failed and livestock could not be maintained through increasingly harsh winters, though Jared Diamond noted that they had exceeded the agricultural carrying The last written records of the Norse capacity before then. In North America, American Indians formed Greenlanders are from a 1408 marriage in the leagues in response to food shortages. In Southern Europe, in Portugal, church of Hvalsey — today the best-preserved of the Norse ruins. snow storms were much more frequent while today they are rare. There are reports of heavy snowfalls in the winters of 1665, 1744 and 1886. In contrast to its uncertain beginning, there is a consensus that the Little Ice Age ended in the mid-19th century.

Evidence of anthropogenic climate change
Through deforestation and agriculture, some scientists have proposed a human component in some historical climatic changes. Human-started fires have been implicated in the transformation of much of Australia from grassland to desert.[1] If true, this would show that even a primitive society could have a role in influencing regional climate. Deforestation, desertification and the salinization of soils may have contributed to or caused other climatic changes throughout human history. For a discussion of recent human involvement in climatic changes, see Attribution of recent climate change.

References
[1] Miller GH, Fogel ML, Magee JW, Gagan MK, Clarke SJ, Johnson BJ (July 2005). "Ecosystem Collapse in Pleistocene Australia and a Human Role in Megafaunal Extinction" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 309/ 5732/ 287). Science 309 (5732): 287–290. doi:10.1126/science.1111288. PMID 16002615. .

External links
• US Historical Climatology Network (http://cdiac.ornl.gov/epubs/ndp/ushcn/newushcn.html) • Historical climatology and the cultural memory of extreme weather events (http://www.eh-resources.org/ podcast/podcast.html#29) - Exploring Environmental History Podcast featuring Christian Pfister

Paleoclimatology

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Paleoclimatology
Paleoclimatology (also palaeoclimatology) is the study of changes in climate taken on the scale of the entire history of Earth. It uses a variety of proxy methods from the Earth and life sciences to obtain data previously preserved within (e.g.) rocks, sediments, ice sheets, tree rings, corals, shells and microfossils; it then uses these records to determine the past states of the Earth's various climate regions and its atmospheric system. Paleoclimatology has wider implications for climate change today. Scientists often consider past changes in environment and biodiversity to reflect on the current situation, and specifically the impact of climate on mass extinctions and biotic recovery.[1]

Reconstructing ancient climates
Paleoclimatologists employ a wide variety of techniques to deduce ancient climates. Ice Mountain Glaciers and the polar ice caps/ice sheets are a widely employed source of data in paleoclimatology. Recent ice coring projects in the ice caps of Greenland and Antarctica have yielded data going back several hundred thousand years—over 800,000 years in the case of the EPICA project. • Air trapped within fallen snow becomes encased in tiny bubbles as the snow is compressed into ice in the glacier under the weight of later years' snow. This trapped air has proven a tremendously valuable source for direct measurement of the composition of air from the time the ice was formed. • Layering can be observed due to seasonal pauses in ice accumulation and can be used to establish chronology; associating specific depths of the core with ranges of time. • Changes in the layering thickness can be used to determine changes in precipitation or temperature. • Oxygen-18 quantity changes (δ18O) in ice layers represent changes in average ocean surface temperature. Water molecules containing the heavier O-18 evaporate at a higher temperature than water molecules containing the normal Oxygen-16 isotope. The ratio of O-18 to O-16 will be higher as temperature increases and less as temperature decreases. Various cycles in those isotope ratios have been detected. • Pollen has been observed in the ice cores and can be used to understand which plants were present as the layer formed. Pollen is produced in abundance and its distribution is typically well understood. A pollen count for a specific layer can be produced by observing the total amount of pollen categorized by type (shape) in a controlled sample of that layer. Changes in plant frequency over time can be plotted through statistical analysis of pollen counts in the core. Knowing which plants were present leads to an understanding of precipitation and temperature, and types of fauna present. Palynology includes the study of pollen for these purposes. • Volcanic ash is contained in some layers, and can be used to establish the time of the layer's formation. Each volcanic event distributed ash with a unique set of properties (shape and color of particles, chemical signature). Establishing the ash's source will establish a range of time to associate with layer of ice. Dendroclimatology

Paleoclimatology Climatic information can be obtained through an understanding of changes in tree growth. Generally, trees respond to changes in climatic variables by speeding up or slowing down growth, which in turn is generally reflected a greater or lesser thickness in growth rings. Different species, however, respond to changes in climatic variables in different ways. A tree-ring record is established by compiling information from many living trees in a specific area. Older intact wood that has escaped decay can extend the time covered by the record by matching the ring depth changes to contemporary specimens. Using this method some areas have tree-ring records dating back a few thousand years. Older wood not connected to a contemporary record can be dated generally with radiocarbon techniques. A tree-ring record can be used to produce information regarding precipitation, temperature, hydrology, and fire corresponding to a particular area. On a longer time scale, geologists must refer to the sedimentary record for data. Sedimentary content • Sediments, sometimes lithified to form rock, may contain remnants of preserved vegetation, animals, plankton or pollen, which may be characteristic of certain climatic zones. • Biomarker molecules such as the alkenones may yield information about their temperature of formation. • Chemical signatures, particularly Mg/Ca ratio of calcite in Foraminifera tests, can be used to reconstruct past temperature. • Isotopic ratios can provide further information. Specifically, the δ18O record responds to changes in temperature and ice volume, and the δ13C record reflects a range of factors, which are often difficult to disentangle. Sedimentary facies On a longer time scale, the rock record may show signs of sea level rise and fall; further, features such as "fossilised" sand dunes can be identified. Scientists can get a grasp of long term climate by studying sedimentary rock going back billions of years. The division of earth history into separate periods is largely based on visible changes in sedimentary rock layers that demarcate major changes in conditions. Often these include major shifts in climate. Corals (see also sclerochronology) Coral "rings" are similar to tree rings, except they respond to different things, such as the water temperature and wave action. From this source, certain equipment can be used to derive the sea surface temperature and water salinity from the past few centuries. The δ18O of coraline red algae provides a useful proxy of sea surface temperature at high latitudes, where many traditional techniques are limited.[2]

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Limitations
The oldest ice core taken was from the Antarctic and dates to 800,000 years old. An international effort is currently being made in the same location to core to 1.2 million years ago. The deep marine record, the source of most isotopic data, only exists on oceanic plates, which are eventually subducted — the oldest remaining material is 200 [3] million years old. Older sediments are also more prone to corruption by diagenesis. Resolution and confidence in the data decrease over time.

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Planet's timeline
Knowledge of precise climatic events decreases as the record goes further back in time. Some notable events are noted below, with a timescale for context. • • • • • • • • • • • • Faint young Sun paradox (start) Huronian glaciation (~2400Mya Earth completely covered in ice probably due to Great Oxygenation Event) Later Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth (~600Mya, Precursor to the Cambrian Explosion) Andean-Saharan glaciation (~450Mya) Permian-Triassic extinction event (251.4Mya) Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (Paleocene-Eocene, 55Mya) Younger Dryas/The Big Freeze (~11Kya) Holocene climatic optimum (~7-3Kya) Climate changes of 535-536 (535-536 AD) Medieval warm period (900-1300) Little ice age (1300-1800) Year Without a Summer (1816)

Millions of Years

History of the atmosphere
Earliest atmosphere
The outgassings of the Earth was stripped away by solar winds early in the history of the planet until a steady state was established, the first atmosphere. Based on today's volcanic evidence, this atmosphere would have contained 60% hydrogen, 20% oxygen (mostly in the form of water vapor), 10% carbon dioxide, 5 to 7% hydrogen sulfide, and smaller amounts of nitrogen, carbon monoxide, free hydrogen, methane and inert gases.
Oxygen content of the atmosphere over the last

A major rainfall led to the buildup of a vast ocean, enriching the other billion years agents, first carbon dioxide and later nitrogen and inert gases. A major part of carbon dioxide exhalations were soon dissolved in water and built up carbonate sediments.

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Second atmosphere
As early as 3.8 billion years ago, water related sediments have been found.[4] About 3.4 billion years ago, nitrogen was the major part of the then stable second atmosphere. An influence of life has to be taken into account rather soon since hints on early life forms are to be found as early as 3.5 billion years ago.[5] The fact that this is not in line with the — compared to today 30% lower — solar radiance of the early sun has been described as the faint young Sun paradox. The geological record, however, shows a continually relatively warm surface during the complete early temperature record of the earth with the exception of one cold glacial phase about 2.4 billion years ago. In the late Archean Era an oxygen containing atmosphere began to develop from photosynthesizing algae. The early basic carbon isotopy is very much in line with what is found today [6] As Jan Veizer assumed that not only did we have life as far back as we had rocks, but there was as much life then as today and the fundamental features of the carbon cycle were established as early as 4 billion years ago.[6]

500 million years of changes in carbon dioxide concentrations

Third atmosphere
The accretion of continents about 3.5 billion years ago[7] added plate tectonics, constantly rearranging the continents and also shaping long-term climate evolution by allowing the transfer of carbon dioxide to large land-based carbonate storages. Free oxygen did not exist until about 1.7 billion years ago and this can be seen with the development of the red beds and the end of the banded iron formations. This signifies a shift from a reducing atmosphere to an oxidising atmosphere. O2 showed major ups and downs until reaching a steady state of more than 15%.[8] The following time span was the Phanerozoic, during which oxygen-breathing metazoan life forms began to appear.

Climate during geological ages
Precambrian climate
In the first three quarters of the Earth's history, only one major glaciation is to be found in the geological record. Since about 950 million years ago, the Earth's climate has varied regularly between large-scale or just polar cap wide glaciation and extensively tropical climates. The time scale for this variation is roughly 140 million years and may be related to Earth's motion into and out of galactic spiral arms and compared to the previous time, significantly reduced solar wind.[9] The climate of the late Precambrian showed some major glaciation events spreading over much of the earth. At this time the continents were bunched up in the Rodinia supercontinent. Massive deposits of tillites are found and anomalous isotopic signatures are found, which gave rise to the Snowball Earth hypothesis. As the Proterozoic Eon drew to a close, the Earth started to warm up. By the dawn of the Cambrian and the Phanerozoic, life forms were abundant in the Cambrian explosion with average global temperatures of about 22 °C.

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Phanerozoic climate
Major drivers for the preindustrial ages have been variations of the sun, volcanic ashes and exhalations, relative movements of the earth towards the sun and tectonically induced effects as for major sea currents, watersheds and ocean oscillations. In the early Phanerozoic, increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have been linked to driving or amplifying increased global temperatures.[10] Royer et al. 2004[11] found a climate sensitivity for the rest of the Phanerozoic which was calculated to be similar to today's modern range of values.
500 million years of climate change The difference in global mean temperatures between a fully glacial Earth and an ice free Earth is estimated at approximately 10 °C, though far larger changes would be observed at high latitudes and smaller ones at low latitudes. One requirement for the development of large scale ice sheets seems to be the arrangement of continental land masses at or near the poles. The constant rearrangement of continents by plate tectonics can also shape long-term climate evolution. However, the presence or absence of land masses at the poles is not sufficient to guarantee glaciations or exclude polar ice caps. Evidence exists of past warm periods in Earth's climate when polar land masses similar to Antarctica were home to deciduous forests rather than ice sheets.

The relatively warm local minimum between Jurassic and Cretaceous goes along with widespread tectonic activity, e.g. the breakup of supercontinents. Superimposed on the long-term evolution between hot and cold climates have been many short-term fluctuations in climate similar to, and sometimes more severe than, the varying glacial and interglacial Phanerozoic till today's temperature record states of the present ice age. Some of the most severe fluctuations, such as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, may be related to rapid climate changes due to sudden collapses of natural methane clathrate reservoirs in the oceans. A similar, single event of induced severe climate change after a meteorite impact has been proposed as reason for the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction event. Other major thresholds are the Permian-Triassic, and Ordovician-Silurian extinction events with various reasons suggested.

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Quaternary sub-era
The Quaternary sub-era includes the current climate. There has been a cycle of ice ages for the past 2.2–2.1 million years (starting before the Quaternary in the late Neogene Period). Note in the graphic on the right the strong 120,000-year periodicity of the cycles, and the striking asymmetry of the curves. This asymmetry is believed to result from complex interactions of feedback mechanisms. It has been observed that ice ages deepen by progressive steps, but the recovery to interglacial conditions occurs in one big step.

Controlling Factors
Short term (104 to 106 years)
Geologically short-term (<120,000 year) temperatures are believed to be driven by orbital factors (see Milankovitch cycles) amplified by changes in greenhouse gases. The arrangements of land masses on the Earth's surface are believed to influence the effectiveness of these orbital forcing effects.
Ice core data for the past 400,000 years. Note length of glacial cycles averages ~100,000 years. Blue curve is temperature, green curve is CO2, and red curve is windblown glacial dust (loess). Today's date is on the left side of the graph.

Medium term (106 to 108 years)
Continental drift affects the thermohaline circulation, which transfers heat between the equatorial regions and the poles, as does the extent of polar ice coverage. The timing of ice ages throughout geologic history is in part controlled by the position of the continental plates on the surface of the Earth. When landmasses are concentrated near the polar regions, there is an increased chance for snow and ice to accumulate. Small changes in solar energy can tip the balance between summers in which the winter snow mass completely melts and summers in which the winter snow persists until the following winter. See the web site Paleomap Project [12] for images of the polar landmass distributions through time. Comparisons of plate tectonic continent reconstructions and paleoclimatic studies show that the Milankovitch cycles have the greatest effect during geologic eras when landmasses have been concentrated in polar regions, as is the case today. Today, Greenland, Antarctica, and the northern portions of Europe, Asia, and North America are situated such that a minor change in solar energy will tip the balance between year-round snow/ice preservation and complete summer melting. The presence of snow and ice is a well-understood positive feedback mechanism for climate. The Earth today is considered to be prone to ice age glaciations. Another proposed factor in long term temperature change is the Uplift-Weathering Hypothesis, first put forward by T. C. Chamberlin in 1899 and later independently proposed in 1988 by Maureen Raymo and colleagues, where upthrusting mountain ranges expose minerals to weathering resulting in their chemical conversion to carbonates thereby removing CO2 from the atmosphere and cooling the earth. Others have proposed similar effects due to changes in average water table levels and consequent changes in sub-surface biological activity and PH levels.

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Long term (108 to 109 years)
It has been proposed that long term galactic motions of the sun have a major influence on the Earth's climate. There are two principal motions, the first and most significant is the orbit of the sun around the galactic centre with a period of the order of 240 million years.[14] Since this period is different from the rotation period of the galactic spiral arms, the sun, and the earth with it, will periodically pass through the arms (estimates of the period are uncertain and vary from 143 million years[13] to 176 million years[15] ). The Correlation between variations in cosmic ray flux (red) and second is an oscillatory bobbing motion, similar to a change in sea temperature (black). Data as presented by Shaviv & [13] floating buoy, which will periodically take the sun Veizer. through the galactic disc. The period of this bobbing motion is 67 million years, so a pass through the galactic plane will occur every 33 million years.[16] The causal link between these galactic motions and climate is unclear but one (controversial) postulate is the effect that entering a denser region of the galaxy will have on increasing the cosmic ray flux (CRF).[13] This theory has been criticised, both for overstating the correlation with CRF and for failing to propose a believable mechanism that would allow CRF to drive temperature.[11] The claims by Henrik Svensmark that CRF also strongly affects short term climate changes is even more controversial and has been challenged by many.[17] [18] It has also been suggested that there is some correlation between these galactic cycles and geological periods. The reason for this is postulated to be that the earth experiences many more impact events while passing through high density regions of the galaxy. Both the climate changes and sudden impacts may cause, or contribute to, extinction events.[15]

Very long term (109 years or more)
Jan Veizer[6] and Nir Shaviv[13] have proposed the interaction of cosmic rays, solar wind and the various magnetic fields to explain the long term evolution of earth's climate. According to Shaviv, the early sun had emitted a stronger solar wind with a protective effect against cosmic rays. In that early age, a moderate greenhouse effect comparable to today's would have been sufficient to explain an ice free earth and the faint young sun paradox.[19] The solar minimum around 2.4 billion years ago is consistent with an established cosmic ray flux modulation by a variable star formation rate in the Milky Way and there is also a hint of an extinction event at this time. Within the last billion years the solar wind has significantly diminished. It is only within this more recent time that passages of the heliosphere through the spiral arms of the galaxy have been able to gain a strong and regularly modulating influence as described above. Over the very long term the energy output of the sun has gradually increased, on the order of 5% per billion (109) years, and will continue to do so until it reaches the end of its current phase of stellar evolution.

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References
Notes
[1] Sahney, S. and Benton, M.J. (2008). "Recovery from the most profound mass extinction of all time" (http:/ / journals. royalsociety. org/ content/ qq5un1810k7605h5/ fulltext. pdf) (PDF). Proceedings of the Royal Society: Biological 275 (1636): 759. doi:10.1098/rspb.2007.1370. PMC 2596898. PMID 18198148. . [2] Halfar, J.; Steneck, R.S.; Joachimski, M.; Kronz, A.; Wanamaker, A.D. (2008). "Coralline red algae as high-resolution climate recorders". Geology 36: 463. doi:10.1130/G24635A.1. [3] http:/ / toolserver. org/ ~verisimilus/ Timeline/ Timeline. php?Ma=200 [4] Windley, B. (1984). The Evolving Continents. New York: Wiley Press. ISBN 0471903760. [5] J. Schopf (1983). Earth’s Earliest Biosphere: Its Origin and Evolution. Princeton NJ: Princeton University Press. ISBN 0691083231. [6] Veizer, J. (2005). Celestial climate driver: a perspective from four billion years of the carbon cycle. Geoscience Canada [7] Veizer (1976). Windley, B.F.. ed. The Early History of the Earth. London: John Wiley and Sons. p. 569. [8] Summary Chart for the Precambrian (http:/ / www. scotese. com/ precamb_chart. htm) [9] Shaviv N.J. (2002). "Cosmic Ray Diffusion from the Galactic Spiral Arms, Iron Meteorites and a possible Climatic Connection". Physical Review Letters 89 (5): 051102. Bibcode 2002PhRvL..89e1102S. doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.89.051102. PMID 12144433. [10] Rosemarie E. Came, John M. Eiler, Jan Veizer, Karem Azmy, Uwe Brand & Christopher R. Weidman (September 2007). "Coupling of surface temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations during the Palaeozoic era". Nature 449 (7159): 198–201. doi:10.1038/nature06085. PMID 17851520. [11] Royer, Dana L. and Robert A. Berner, Isabel P. Montañez, Neil J. Tabor, David J. Beerling (July 2004). "CO2 as a primary driver of Phanerozoic climate" (http:/ / www. gsajournals. org/ gsaonline/ ?request=get-document& issn=1052-5173& volume=014& issue=03& page=0004). GSA Today 14 (3): 4–10. doi:10.1130/1052-5173(2004)014<4:CAAPDO>2.0.CO;2. . [12] http:/ / www. scotese. com/ earth. htm [13] Shaviv, NJ, Veizer, J (July 2003). "Celestial driver of Phanerozoic climate?". GSA Today 7 (7): 4–10., see also online version (http:/ / www. gsajournals. org/ perlserv/ ?request=get-document& doi=10. 1130/ 1052-5173(2003)013<0004:CDOPC>2. 0. CO;2) or online discussion (http:/ / www. sciencebits. com/ ice-ages) [14] Borrero, Hess et al. (2008). Earth Science: Geology, the Environment, and the Universe. Glencoe: McGraw-Hill. p. 348. ISBN 0-07-875045-8. [15] Gillman, M, Erenler, H (2008). "The galactic cycle of extinction". International Journal of Astrobiology 7. doi:10.1017/S1473550408004047. [16] Huggett, RJ (2003). Environmental Change the Evolving Ecosphere. Routledge. p. 48. ISBN 0-415-14520-1. [17] Schmidt, Gavin (2007-06-01). "Clouding the issue of climate" (http:/ / physicsworld. com/ cws/ article/ print/ 30103). Physics World. . [18] K. S. Carslaw, R. G. Harrison, J. Kirkby (November 2002). "Atmospheric Science: Cosmic Rays, Clouds, and Climate". Science 298 (5599): 1732–7. doi:10.1126/science.1076964. PMID 12459578. [19] Shaviv, N. J. (2003). "Toward a solution to the early faint Sun paradox: A lower cosmic ray flux from a stronger solar wind". J. Geophys. Res. 108 (A12): 1437. arXiv:astro-ph/0306477. Bibcode 2003JGRA..108.1437S. doi:10.1029/2003JA009997.

Bibliography
• Bradley, Raymond S. (1985). Quaternary paleoclimatology: methods of paleoclimatic reconstruction. Boston: Allen & Unwin. ISBN 0-04-551067-9. • Imbrie, John (1986, c1979). Ice ages: solving the mystery. Cambridge MA: Harvard University Press. ISBN 0674440757. • Margulis, Lynn; Sagan, Dorion (1986). Origins of sex: three billion years of genetic recombination. The Bio-origins series. New Haven: Yale University Press. ISBN 0-300-03340-0. • Gould, Stephen Jay (1989). Wonderful life, the story of the Burgess Shale. New York: W.W. Norton. ISBN 0-393-02705-8. • Crowley, Thomas J.; North, Gerald R. (1996). Paleoclimatology. Oxford monographs on geology and geophysics. 18. Oxford: Clarendon Press. ISBN 0-19-510533-8. • Karl-Heinz Ludwig: Eine kurze Geschichte des Klimas. Von der Entstehung der Erde bis heute, (A short history of climate, From the evolution of earth till today) Herbst 2006, ISBN 3-406-54746 • William F. Ruddimann (2001). Earth's Climate — Past and Future. Palgrave Macmillan. ISBN 0-7167-3741-8. • B. Windley (1984). The Evolving Continents. New York: Wiley Press.

Paleoclimatology • Drummond, Carl N. and Wilkinson, Bruce H. (2006). "Interannual Variability in Climate Data". Journal of Geology 114: 325–339. Bibcode 2006JG....114..325D. doi:10.1086/500992.

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External links
• A Brief Introduction to History of Climate (http://muller.lbl.gov/pages/IceAgeBook/history_of_climate. html), an excellent overview by Prof. Richard A Muller of UC Berkley. • NOAA Paleoclimatology (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/paleo.html) • AGU Paleoclimatology and climate system dynamics (http://www.agu.org/revgeophys/overpe00/overpe00. html) • Paleoclimatology in the 21st century (http://www.nhm.ac.uk/hosted_sites/paleonet/paleo21/pclimate.html) • Environmental Literacy Council (http://www.enviroliteracy.org/article.php/75.html) • Climate change and Palaeoclimatology (http://www.earth-pages.com/archive/climate.asp) News Archive • The Uplift-Weathering Hypothesis (http://www.moraymo.us/uplift_overview.php) • NASA's GISS paleoclimate site (http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/paleo/) • CalPal — Cologne Radiocarbon Calibration & Paleoclimate Research Package (http://www.calpal.de) • W. F. Ruddiman (2006). "Ice-driven CO2 feedback on ice volume" (http://www.copernicus.org/EGU/cp/cpd/ 2/43/cpd-2-43_p.pdf). Clim. Past 2 (1): 43–55. doi:10.5194/cp-2-43-2006. • Rapid Climate Change (http://www.aip.org/history/climate/rapid.htm) • Short history of climate (http://stratus.astr.ucl.ac.be/textbook//pdf/Chapter_5.pdf)

Biofuel
Biofuels are a wide range of fuels which are in some way derived from biomass. The term covers solid biomass, liquid fuels and various biogases.[1] Biofuels are gaining increased public and scientific attention, driven by factors such as oil price spikes, the need for increased energy security, concern over greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels, and government subsidies. Bioethanol is an alcohol made by fermenting the sugar components of plant materials and it is made mostly from sugar and starch crops. With advanced technology being developed, cellulosic biomass, such as trees and grasses, are also used as feedstocks for ethanol production. Ethanol can be used as a fuel for vehicles in its pure form, but it is usually used as a gasoline additive to increase octane and improve vehicle emissions. Bioethanol is widely used in the USA and in Brazil. Biodiesel is made from vegetable oils, animal fats or recycled greases. Biodiesel can be used as a fuel for vehicles in its pure form, but it is usually used as a diesel additive to reduce levels of particulates, carbon monoxide, and hydrocarbons from diesel-powered vehicles. Biodiesel is produced from oils or fats using transesterification and is the most common biofuel in Europe.

Information on pump regarding ethanol fuel blend up to 10%, California

Bus run on biodiesel

Biofuels provided 1.8% of the world's transport fuel in 2008. Investment into biofuels production capacity exceeded $4 billion worldwide in 2007 and is growing.[2] According to

Biofuel the International Energy Agency, biofuels have the potential to meet more than a quarter of world demand for transportation fuels by 2050.[3]

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Liquid fuels for transportation
Most transportation fuels are liquids, because vehicles usually require high energy density, as occurs in liquids and solids. High power density can be provided most inexpensively by an internal combustion engine; these engines require clean burning fuels, to keep the engine clean and minimize air pollution. The fuels that are easiest to burn cleanly are typically liquids and gases. Thus liquids (and gases that can be stored in liquid form) meet the requirements of being both portable and clean burning. Also, liquids and gases can be pumped, which means handling is easily mechanized, and thus less laborious.

First generation biofuels
'First-generation' or conventional biofuels are biofuels made from sugar, starch, and vegetable oil. Bioalcohols Biologically produced alcohols, most commonly ethanol, and less commonly propanol and butanol, are produced by the action of microorganisms and enzymes through the fermentation of sugars or starches (easiest), or cellulose (which is more difficult). Biobutanol (also called biogasoline) is often claimed to provide a direct replacement for gasoline, because it can be used directly in a gasoline engine (in a similar way to biodiesel in diesel engines). Ethanol fuel is the most common biofuel worldwide, particularly in Neat ethanol on the left (A), gasoline on the right Brazil. Alcohol fuels are produced by fermentation of sugars derived (G) at a filling station in Brazil from wheat, corn, sugar beets, sugar cane, molasses and any sugar or starch that alcoholic beverages can be made from (like potato and fruit waste, etc.). The ethanol production methods used are enzyme digestion (to release sugars from stored starches), fermentation of the sugars, distillation and drying. The distillation process requires significant energy input for heat (often unsustainable natural gas fossil fuel, but cellulosic biomass such as bagasse, the waste left after sugar cane is pressed to extract its juice, can also be used more sustainably). Ethanol can be used in petrol engines as a replacement for gasoline; it can be mixed with gasoline to any percentage. Most existing car petrol engines can run on blends of up to 15% bioethanol with petroleum/gasoline. Ethanol has a smaller energy density than gasoline, which means it takes more fuel (volume and mass) to produce the same amount of work. An advantage of ethanol (CH3CH2OH) is that it has a higher octane rating than ethanol-free gasoline available at roadside gas stations which allows an increase of an engine's compression ratio for increased thermal efficiency. In high altitude (thin air) locations, some states mandate a mix of gasoline and ethanol as a winter oxidizer to reduce atmospheric pollution emissions. Ethanol is also used to fuel bioethanol fireplaces. As they do not require a chimney and are "flueless", bio ethanol fires[4] are extremely useful for new build homes and apartments without a flue. The downside to these fireplaces, is that the heat output is slightly less than electric and gas fires. In the current alcohol-from-corn production model in the United States, considering the total energy consumed by farm equipment, cultivation, planting, fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides, and fungicides made from petroleum, irrigation systems, harvesting, transport of feedstock to processing plants, fermentation, distillation, drying, transport to fuel terminals and retail pumps, and lower ethanol fuel energy content, the net energy content value added and delivered to consumers is very small. And, the net benefit (all things considered) does little to reduce imported oil

Biofuel and fossil fuels required to produce the ethanol.[5] Although ethanol-from-corn and other food stocks has implications both in terms of world food prices and limited, yet positive energy yield (in terms of energy delivered to customer/fossil fuels used), the technology has led to the development of cellulosic ethanol. According to a joint research agenda conducted through the U.S. Department of Energy,[6] the fossil energy ratios (FER) for cellulosic ethanol, corn ethanol, and gasoline are 10.3, 1.36, and 0.81, respectively.[7] [8] [9] Even dry ethanol has roughly one-third lower energy content per unit of volume compared to gasoline, so larger / heavier fuel tanks are required to travel the same distance, or more fuel stops are required. With large current unsustainable, non-scalable subsidies, ethanol fuel still costs much more per distance traveled than current high gasoline prices in the United States.[10] Methanol is currently produced from natural gas, a non-renewable fossil fuel. It can also be produced from biomass as biomethanol. The methanol economy is an interesting alternative to get to the hydrogen economy, compared to today's hydrogen production from natural gas. But this process is not the state-of-the-art clean solar thermal energy process where hydrogen production is directly produced from water.[11] Butanol is formed by ABE fermentation (acetone, butanol, ethanol) and experimental modifications of the process show potentially high net energy gains with butanol as the only liquid product. Butanol will produce more energy and allegedly can be burned "straight" in existing gasoline engines (without modification to the engine or car),[12] and is less corrosive and less water soluble than ethanol, and could be distributed via existing infrastructures. DuPont and BP are working together to help develop Butanol. E. coli have also been successfully engineered to produce Butanol by hijacking their amino acid metabolism.[13] Biodiesel Biodiesel is the most common biofuel in Europe. It is produced from oils or fats using transesterification and is a liquid similar in composition to fossil/mineral diesel. Chemically, it consists mostly of fatty acid methyl (or ethyl) esters (FAMEs). Feedstocks for biodiesel include animal fats, vegetable oils, soy, rapeseed, jatropha, mahua, mustard, flax, sunflower, palm oil, hemp, field pennycress, pongamia pinnata and algae. Pure biodiesel (B100) is the lowest emission diesel fuel. Although liquefied petroleum gas and hydrogen have cleaner combustion, they are used to fuel much less efficient petrol engines and are not as widely available. Biodiesel can be used in any diesel engine when mixed with mineral diesel. In some countries manufacturers cover their diesel engines under warranty for B100 use, although Volkswagen of Germany, for example, asks drivers to check by telephone with the VW environmental services department before switching to B100. B100 may become more viscous at lower temperatures, depending on the feedstock used. In most cases, biodiesel is compatible with diesel engines from 1994 onwards, which use 'Viton' (by DuPont) synthetic rubber in their mechanical fuel injection systems.

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In some countries biodiesel is less expensive than conventional diesel.

Electronically controlled 'common rail' and 'unit injector' type systems from the late 1990s onwards may only use biodiesel blended with conventional diesel fuel. These engines have finely metered and atomized multi-stage injection systems that are very sensitive to the viscosity of the fuel. Many current generation diesel engines are made so that they can run on B100 without altering the engine itself, although

Biofuel this depends on the fuel rail design. Since biodiesel is an effective solvent and cleans residues deposited by mineral diesel, engine filters may need to be replaced more often, as the biofuel dissolves old deposits in the fuel tank and pipes. It also effectively cleans the engine combustion chamber of carbon deposits, helping to maintain efficiency. In many European countries, a 5% biodiesel blend is widely used and is available at thousands of gas stations.[14] [15] Biodiesel is also an oxygenated fuel, meaning that it contains a reduced amount of carbon and higher hydrogen and oxygen content than fossil diesel. This improves the combustion of fossil diesel and reduces the particulate emissions from un-burnt carbon. Biodiesel is also safe to handle and transport because it is as biodegradable as sugar, 10 times less toxic than table salt, and has a high flash point of about 300 F (148 C) compared to petroleum diesel fuel, which has a flash point of 125 F (52 C).[16] In the USA, more than 80% of commercial trucks and city buses run on diesel. The emerging US biodiesel market is estimated to have grown 200% from 2004 to 2005. "By the end of 2006 biodiesel production was estimated to increase fourfold [from 2004] to more than 1 billion gallons".[17] Green diesel Green diesel, also known as renewable diesel, is a form of diesel fuel which is derived from renewable feedstock rather than the fossil feedstock used in most diesel fuels. Green diesel feedstock can be sourced from a variety of oils including canola, algae, jatropha and salicornia in addition to tallow. Green diesel uses traditional fractional distillation to process the oils, not to be confused with biodiesel which is chemically quite different and processed using transesterification. “Green Diesel” as commonly known in Ireland should not be confused with dyed green diesel sold at a lower tax rate for agriculture purposes, using the dye allows custom officers to determine if a person is using the cheaper diesel in higher taxed applications such as commercial haulage or cars.[18]

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Biofuel Vegetable oil Straight unmodified edible vegetable oil is generally not used as fuel, but lower quality oil can and has been used for this purpose. Used vegetable oil is increasingly being processed into biodiesel, or (more rarely) cleaned of water and particulates and used as a fuel. Also here, as with 100% biodiesel (B100), to ensure that the fuel injectors atomize the vegetable oil in the correct pattern for efficient combustion, vegetable oil fuel must be heated to reduce its viscosity to that of diesel, either by electric coils or heat exchangers. This is easier in warm or temperate climates. Big corporations like MAN B&W Diesel, Wärtsilä, and Deutz AG as well as a number of smaller companies such as Elsbett offer engines that are compatible with straight vegetable oil, without the need for after-market modifications. Vegetable oil can also be used in many older diesel engines that do not use common rail or unit injection electronic diesel injection systems. Due to the design of the combustion chambers in indirect injection engines, these are the best engines for use with vegetable oil. This system allows the relatively larger oil molecules more time to burn. Some older engines, especially Mercedes are driven experimentally by enthusiasts without any conversion, a handful of drivers have experienced limited success with earlier pre-"Pumpe Duse" VW TDI engines and other similar engines with direct injection. Several companies like Elsbett or Wolf [19] have developed professional conversion kits and successfully installed hundreds of them over the last decades.
Filtered waste vegetable oil

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Oils and fats can be hydrogenated to give a diesel substitute. The resulting product is a straight chain hydrocarbon with a high cetane number, low in aromatics and sulfur and does not contain oxygen. Hydrogenated oils can be blended with diesel in all proportions Hydrogenated oils have several advantages over biodiesel, including good performance at low temperatures, no storage stability problems and no susceptibility to microbial attack.[20]

Biofuel Bioethers Bio ethers (also referred to as fuel ethers or oxygenated fuels) are cost-effective compounds that act as octane rating enhancers. They also enhance engine performance, whilst significantly reducing engine wear and toxic exhaust emissions. Greatly reducing the amount of ground-level ozone, they contribute to the quality of the air we breathe.[21] [22] Biogas Biogas is methane produced by the process of anaerobic digestion of organic material by anaerobes.[23] It can be produced either from biodegradable waste materials or by the use of energy crops fed into anaerobic digesters to supplement gas yields. The solid byproduct, digestate, can be used as a biofuel or a fertilizer. • Biogas can be recovered from mechanical biological treatment waste processing systems. Note:Landfill gas is a less clean form of biogas which is produced in landfills through naturally occurring anaerobic digestion. If it escapes into the atmosphere it is a potential greenhouse gas. • Farmers can produce biogas from manure from their cows by using an anaerobic digester (AD).[24]
Pipes carrying biogas

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Syngas Syngas, a mixture of carbon monoxide and hydrogen, is produced by partial combustion of biomass, that is, combustion with an amount of oxygen that is not sufficient to convert the biomass completely to carbon dioxide and water.[20] Before partial combustion the biomass is dried, and sometimes pyrolysed. The resulting gas mixture, syngas, is more efficient than direct combustion of the original biofuel; more of the energy contained in the fuel is extracted. • Syngas may be burned directly in internal combustion engines or turbines. The wood gas generator is a wood-fueled gasification reactor mounted on an internal combustion engine. • Syngas can be used to produce methanol, DME and hydrogen, or converted via the Fischer-Tropsch process to produce a diesel substitute, or a mixture of alcohols that can be blended into gasoline. Gasification normally relies on temperatures >700°C. • Lower temperature gasification is desirable when co-producing biochar but results in a Syngas polluted with tar. Solid biofuels Examples include wood, sawdust, grass cuttings, domestic refuse, charcoal, agricultural waste, non-food energy crops (see picture), and dried manure. When raw biomass is already in a suitable form (such as firewood), it can burn directly in a stove or furnace to provide heat or raise steam. When raw biomass is in an inconvenient form (such as sawdust, wood chips, grass, urban waste wood, agricultural residues), the typical process is to densify the biomass. This process includes grinding the raw biomass to an appropriate particulate size (known as hogfuel), which depending on the densification type can be from 1 to 3 cm (1 in), which is then concentrated into a fuel product. The current types of processes are wood pellet, cube, or puck. The pellet process is most common in Europe and is typically a pure wood product. The other types of densification are larger in size compared to a pellet and are compatible with a broad range of input

Biofuel feedstocks. The resulting densified fuel is easier to transport and feed into thermal generation systems such as boilers. A problem with the combustion of raw biomass is that it emits considerable amounts of pollutants such as particulates and PAHs (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons). Even modern pellet boilers generate much more pollutants than oil or natural gas boilers. Pellets made from agricultural residues are usually worse than wood pellets, producing much larger emissions of dioxins and chlorophenols.[25] Notwithstanding the above noted study, numerous studies have shown that biomass fuels have significantly less impact on the environment than fossil based fuels. Of note is the U.S. Department of Energy Laboratory, Operated by Midwest Research Institute Biomass Power and Conventional Fossil Systems with and without CO2 Sequestration – Comparing the Energy Balance, Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economics Study. Power generation emits significant amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs), mainly carbon dioxide (CO2). Sequestering CO2 from the power plant flue gas can significantly reduce the GHGs from the power plant itself, but this is not the total picture. CO2 capture and sequestration consumes additional energy, thus lowering the plant's fuel-to-electricity efficiency. To compensate for this, more fossil fuel must be procured and consumed to make up for lost capacity. Taking this into consideration, the global warming potential (GWP), which is a combination of CO2, methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, and energy balance of the system need to be examined using a life cycle assessment. This takes into account the upstream processes which remain constant after CO2 sequestration as well as the steps required for additional power generation. firing biomass instead of coal led to a 148% reduction in GWP. A derivative of solid biofuel is biochar, which is produced by biomass pyrolysis. Bio-char made from agricultural waste can substitute for wood charcoal. As wood stock becomes scarce this alternative is gaining ground. In eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, for example, biomass briquettes are being marketed as an alternative to charcoal in order to protect Virunga National Park from deforestation associated with charcoal production.[26]

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Advanced biofuels
Advanced biofuels can refer to any biofuel made by a novel method and/or that gives a better product than current biofuels.[27] Second, third, and fourth generation biofuels are also called advanced biofuels. Second generation biofuels Supporters of biofuels claim that a more viable solution is to increase political and industrial support for, and rapidity of, second-generation biofuel implementation from non-food crops. These include waste biomass, the stalks of wheat, corn, wood, and special-energy-or-biomass crops (e.g. Miscanthus). Some second generation (2G) biofuels use biomass to liquid technology,[28] including cellulosic biofuels.[29] Many second generation biofuels are under development such as biohydrogen, biomethanol, DMF, BioDME, Fischer-Tropsch diesel, biohydrogen diesel, mixed alcohols and wood diesel. Cellulosic ethanol production uses non-food crops or inedible waste products and does not divert food away from the animal or human food chain. Lignocellulose is the "woody" structural material of plants. This feedstock is abundant and diverse, and in some cases (like citrus peels or sawdust) it is in itself a significant disposal problem. Producing ethanol from cellulose is a difficult technical problem to solve. In nature, ruminant livestock (like cattle) eat grass and then use slow enzymatic digestive processes to break it into glucose (sugar). In cellulosic ethanol laboratories, various experimental processes are being developed to do the same thing, and then the sugars released can be fermented to make ethanol fuel. In 2009 scientists reported developing, using "synthetic biology", "15 new highly stable fungal enzyme catalysts that efficiently break down cellulose into sugars at high temperatures", adding to the 10 previously known.[30] The use of high temperatures, has been identified as an important factor in improving the overall economic feasibility of the biofuel industry and the identification of enzymes that are stable and can operate efficiently at extreme temperatures is an area of active research.[31] In addition, research conducted at TU Delft by Jack Pronk has shown that elephant yeast, when slightly modified can also create ethanol from non-edible

Biofuel ground sources (e.g. straw).[32] [33] The recent discovery of the fungus Gliocladium roseum points toward the production of so-called myco-diesel from cellulose. This organism was recently discovered in the rainforests of northern Patagonia and has the unique capability of converting cellulose into medium length hydrocarbons typically found in diesel fuel.[34] Scientists also work on experimental recombinant DNA genetic engineering organisms that could increase biofuel potential. Scientists working in New Zealand have developed a technology to use industrial waste gases from steel mills as a feedstock for a microbial fermentation process to produce ethanol.[35] [36] Third generation biofuels Algae fuel, also called oilgae or third generation biofuel, is a biofuel from algae. Algae are low-input, high-yield feedstocks to produce biofuels.[37] Based on laboratory experiments, it is claimed that algae can produce up to 30 times more energy per acre than land crops such as soybeans,[38] but these yields have yet to be produced commercially. With the higher prices of fossil fuels (petroleum), there is much interest in algaculture (farming algae). One advantage of many biofuels over most other fuel types is that they are biodegradable, and so relatively harmless to the environment if spilled.[39] [40] [41] Algae fuel still has its difficulties though, for instance to produce algae fuels it must be mixed uniformly, which, if done by agitation, could affect biomass growth.[42] The United States Department of Energy estimates that if algae fuel replaced all the petroleum fuel in the United States, it would require only 15,000 square miles (38,849 square kilometers), which is roughly the size of Maryland,[38] or less than one seventh the amount of land devoted to corn in 2000.[43] Algae, such as Botryococcus braunii and Chlorella vulgaris are relatively easy to grow,[44] but the algal oil is hard to extract. There are several approaches, some of which work better than others.[45] Macroalgae (seaweed) also have a great potential for bioethanol and biogas production.[46] Ethanol from living algae Most biofuel production comes from harvesting organic matter and then converting it to fuel but an alternative approach relies on the fact that some algae naturally produce ethanol and this can be collected without killing the algae. The ethanol evaporates and then can be condensed and collected. The company Algenol is trying to commercialize this process. Distillates However, if biocatalytic cracking and traditional fractional distillation are used to process properly prepared algal biomass, i.e. biocrude,[47] then distillates can be produced, such as jet fuel, gasoline, diesel and others. Fourth generation biofuels A number of companies are pursuing advanced "bio-chemical" and "thermo-chemical" processes that produce "drop in" fuels like "green gasoline," "green diesel," and "green aviation fuel." While there is no one established definition of "fourth-generation biofuels," some have referred to it as the biofuels created from processes other than first generation ethanol and biodiesel, second generation cellulosic ethanol, and third generation algae biofuel. Some fourth generation technology pathways include: pyrolysis, gasification, upgrading, solar-to-fuel, and genetic manipulation of organisms to secrete hydrocarbons.[48] • GreenFuel Technologies Corporation developed a patented bioreactor system that uses nontoxic photosynthetic algae to take in smokestacks flue gases and produce biofuels such as biodiesel, biogas and a dry fuel comparable to coal.[49] • With thermal depolymerization of biological waste one can extract methane and other oils similar to petroleum. Hydrocarbon plants or petroleum plants are plants which produce terpenoids as secondary metabolites that can be converted to gasoline-like fuels. Latex producing members of the Euphorbiaceae such as Euphorbia lathyris and E. tirucalli and members of Apocynaceae have been studied for their potential energy uses.[50] [51]

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Biofuel

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Biofuels by region
There are international organizations such as IEA Bioenergy,[52] established in 1978 by the OECD International Energy Agency (IEA), with the aim of improving cooperation and information exchange between countries that have national programs in bioenergy research, development and deployment. The U.N. International Biofuels Forum is formed by Brazil, China, India, South Africa, the United States and the European Commission.[53] The world leaders in biofuel development and use are Brazil, United States, France, Sweden and Germany. Russia also has 22% of worlds forest[54] and is a big biomass (solid biofuels) supplier. In 2010, Russian pulp and paper maker, Vyborgskaya Cellulose, said they would be producing pellets that can be used in heat and electricity generation from its plant in Vyborg by the end of the year.[55] The plant will eventually produce about 900,000 tons of pellets per year, making it the largest in the world once operational.

Issues with biofuel production and use
There are various social, economic, environmental and technical issues with biofuel production and use, which have been discussed in the popular media and scientific journals. These include: the effect of moderating oil prices, the "food vs fuel" debate, poverty reduction potential, carbon emissions levels, sustainable biofuel production, deforestation and soil erosion, loss of biodiversity, impact on water resources, as well as energy balance and efficiency.

References
[1] Demirbas, A. (2009). "Political, economic and environmental impacts of biofuels: A review". Applied Energy 86: S108–S117. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2009.04.036. [2] "Towards Sustainable Production and Use of Resources: Assessing Biofuels" (http:/ / www. unep. fr/ scp/ rpanel/ pdf/ Assessing_Biofuels_Full_Report. pdf). United Nations Environment Programme. 2009-10-16. . Retrieved 2009-10-24. [3] "IEA says biofuels can displace 27% of transportation fuels by 2050 Washington" (http:/ / www. platts. com/ RSSFeedDetailedNews/ RSSFeed/ Oil/ 6017103). Platts. 20 April 2011. . [4] Bio ethanol fires information bio ethanol fireplace (http:/ / www. prestigiousfires. co. uk). (2009) [5] Andrew Bounds (2007-09-10). "OECD warns against biofuels subsidies" (http:/ / www. ft. com/ cms/ s/ 0/ e780d216-5fd5-11dc-b0fe-0000779fd2ac. html). Financial Times. . Retrieved 2008-03-07. [6] see "Breaking the Biological Barriers to Cellulosic Ethanol" [7] Brinkman, N. et al., "Well-to-Wheels Analysis of Advanced/Vehicle Systems", 2005. [8] Farrell, A.E. et al. (2006) "Ethanol can Contribute to Energy and Environmental Goals", Science, 311, 506-8. [9] Hammerschlag, R. 2006. "Ethanol's Energy Return on Investment: A Survey of the Literature 1999-Present", Environ. Sci. Technol., 40, 1744-50. [10] "With only 2/3 the energy of gasoline, ethanol costs more per mile" (http:/ / zfacts. com/ p/ 436. html). zFacts.com. 2007-04-27. . Retrieved 2008-03-07. [11] "Hydrogen Solar home" (http:/ / www. hydrogensolar. com/ ). Hydrogensolar.com. . Retrieved 2010-07-14. [12] "ButylFuel, LLC Main Page" (http:/ / www. butanol. com/ ). Butanol.com. 2005-08-15. . Retrieved 2010-07-14. [13] Evans, Jon (14 January 2008). "Biofuels aim higher" (http:/ / www. biofpr. com/ details/ feature/ 102347/ Biofuels_aim_higher. html). Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining (BioFPR). . Retrieved 2008-12-03. [14] "ADM Biodiesel: Hamburg, Leer, Mainz" (http:/ / www. biodiesel. de/ ). Biodiesel.de. . Retrieved 2010-07-14. [15] RRI Limited for Biodiesel Filling Stations. "Welcome to Biodiesel Filling Stations" (http:/ / www. biodieselfillingstations. co. uk). Biodieselfillingstations.co.uk. . Retrieved 2010-07-14. [16] "Biofuels Facts" (http:/ / www. hempcar. org/ biofacts. shtml). Hempcar.org. . Retrieved 2010-07-14. [17] THE FUTURIST (http:/ / www. wfs. org/ futcontja07. htm), Will Thurmond (http:/ / www. prleap. com/ pr/ 80099/ ). July–August 2007 [18] "Customs seize illegal fuel" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ uk_news/ northern_ireland/ 4083017. stm). BBC News. 2004-12-09. . Retrieved 2010-07-25. [19] http:/ / www. wolf-pflanzenoel-technik. de/ [20] Evans, G. "Liquid Transport Biofuels - Technology Status Report" (http:/ / www. nnfcc. co. uk/ metadot/ index. pl?id=6597;isa=DBRow;op=show;dbview_id=2457), National Non-Food Crops Centre, 2008-04-14. Retrieved on 2009-05-11. [21] "Council Directive 85/536/EEC of 5 December 1985 on crude-oil savings through the use of substitute fuel components in petrol" (http:/ / eur-lex. europa. eu/ LexUriServ/ LexUriServ. do?uri=CELEX:31985L0536:EN:HTML). Eur-lex.europa.eu. . Retrieved 2010-07-14. [22] "Microsoft Word - IA 55 EN.doc" (http:/ / www. europarl. europa. eu/ registre/ docs_autres_institutions/ commission_europeenne/ sec/ 2007/ 0055/ COM_SEC(2007)0055_EN. pdf) (PDF). . Retrieved 2010-07-14.

Biofuel
[23] Redman, G., The Andersons Centre. "Assessment of on-farm AD in the UK" (http:/ / www. nnfcc. co. uk/ metadot/ index. pl?id=7198;isa=DBRow;op=show;dbview_id=2457), National Non-Food Crops Centre, 2008-06-09. Retrieved on 2009-05-11. [24] "BIOGAS: No bull, manure can power your farm." Farmers Guardian (September 25, 2009): 12. General OneFile. Gale. [25] Cedric Briens, Jan Piskorz and Franco Berruti, "Biomass Valorization for Fuel and Chemicals Production -- A Review," 2008. International Journal of Chemical Reactor Engineering, 6, R2 [26] "Threat to Great Apes Highlighted at Virunga Meeting" (http:/ / www. america. gov/ st/ env-english/ 2008/ July/ 20080711150646mlenuhret0. 9135401. html). America.gov. . Retrieved 2010-07-14. [27] National Non-Food Crops Centre. NNFCC Newsletter - Issue 19. Advanced Biofuels (http:/ / www. nnfcc. co. uk/ publications/ nnfcc-newsletter-issue-19. -advanced-biofuels) [28] Oliver R. Inderwildi, David A. King (2009). "Quo Vadis Biofuels". Energy & Environmental Science 2 (4): 343. doi:10.1039/b822951c. [29] Chris Somerville. "Development of Cellulosic Biofuels" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20070927005653/ http:/ / www. usda. gov/ oce/ forum/ 2007+ Speeches/ PDF+ PPT/ CSomerville. pdf) (PDF). U.S. Dept. of Agriculture. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. usda. gov/ oce/ forum/ 2007+ Speeches/ PDF+ PPT/ CSomerville. pdf) on 2007-09-27. . Retrieved 2008-01-15. [30] EurekAlert. (2009). 15 new highly stable fungal enzyme catalysts that efficiently break down cellulose into sugars at high temperatures (http:/ / www. eurekalert. org/ pub_releases/ 2009-03/ ciot-csc032009. php). [31] Yeoman CJ, Han Y, Dodd D, Schroeder CM, Mackie RI, Cant IK. (2010) "Thermostable enzymes as biocatalysts in the biofuel industry" (http:/ / www. ncbi. nlm. nih. gov/ pubmed/ 20359453). .. Advances in Applied Microbiology 70: 1 - 55 [32] "Jack Pronk's elephant yeast" (http:/ / www. tnw. tudelft. nl/ live/ pagina. jsp?id=811b8180-6e76-47bb-8ee6-57f89b0d8b17& lang=en). Tnw.tudelft.nl. . Retrieved 2010-07-14. [33] "Straw to ethanol plant in Sas van Gent" (http:/ / www. tnw. tudelft. nl/ live/ pagina. jsp?id=811b8180-6e76-47bb-8ee6-57f89b0d8b17& lang=en). Tnw.tudelft.nl. . Retrieved 2010-07-14. [34] "Fill her up please, and make it myco-diesel" (http:/ / afp. google. com/ article/ ALeqM5gz4TxqoKipVTNNcSTylCrzgb0IAg). AFP. . Retrieved 2008-11-04. [35] *Fisher, Lawrence M. April 24th 2007. "Carbon gas is explored as a source of ethanol" New York Times. [36] *Voegele, E. August 27th 2009. "LanzaTech develops waste gas to ethanol technology", Ethanol Producer Magazine [37] Matthew Aylott (2010-09-24). "Forget palm oil and soya, microalgae is the next big biofuel source" (http:/ / www. theecologist. org/ blogs_and_comments/ commentators/ other_comments/ 609556/ forget_palm_oil_and_soya_microalgae_is_the_next_big_biofuel_source. html). The Ecologist. . Retrieved 2011-02-22. [38] Eviana Hartman (2008-01-06). "A Promising Oil Alternative: Algae Energy" (http:/ / www. washingtonpost. com/ wp-dyn/ content/ article/ 2008/ 01/ 03/ AR2008010303907. html). Washington Post. . Retrieved 2008-01-15. [39] astutech ltd / wordserver 2.0. "Globeco biodegradable bio-diesel" (http:/ / www. globeco. co. uk/ Bio-diesel_news_0007. html). Globeco.co.uk. . Retrieved 2010-07-14. [40] FriendsOfEthanol.com. "Friends of Ethanol.com biodegradable ethanol" (http:/ / www. friendsofethanol. com/ facts. html). Friendsofethanol.com. . Retrieved 2010-07-14. [41] Low Cost Algae Production System Introduced (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20071011212956/ http:/ / energy-arizona. org/ archive/ 200708280001_low_cost_algae_production_system_introduced. php) [42] "New algal extraction techniques using helix bioreactor." Industrial Bioprocessing (April 3, 2009): NA. General OneFile. Gale. [43] "Nanofarming technology harvest biofuel oils without harming algae" (http:/ / www. physorg. com/ news158333205. html). Physorg.com. 2009-04-07. . Retrieved 2010-07-14. [44] (http:/ / algaloildiesel. wetpaint. com/ page/ PROPAGATION+ OF+ ALGAE+ BY+ USE+ OF+ COVERED+ PONDS), [45] "Prospects For The Biodiesel Industry - Algaloildiesel, Llp" (http:/ / algaloildiesel. wetpaint. com/ page/ PROSPECTS+ FOR+ THE+ BIODIESEL+ INDUSTRY). Algaloildiesel.wetpaint.com. . Retrieved 2010-07-14. [46] "Seaweed Biofuels: Production of Biogas and Bioethanol from Brown Macroalgae". Amazon.com. ASIN 3639153073. [47] University of Oklahoma (2009, January 14) 'Green' Gasoline On The Horizon. ScienceDaily. Retrieved March 9, 2010, from http:/ / www. sciencedaily. com­/ releases/ 2009/ 01/ 090113155902. htm [48] http:/ / www. gtmresearch. com/ report/ third-and-fourth-generation-biofuels [49] "greenfuelonline.com" (http:/ / www. greenfuelonline. com/ ). greenfuelonline.com. . Retrieved 2010-07-14. [50] Kalita, D (2008). "Hydrocarbon plant—New source of energy for future". Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 12 (2): 455–471. doi:10.1016/j.rser.2006.07.008. ISSN 13640321. [51] K. G. Ramawat (2010). Desert Plants: Biology and Biotechnology (http:/ / books. google. com/ books?id=UNaNWN4zkqQC& pg=PA37). Springer. pp. 37–. ISBN 9783642025495. . Retrieved 23 August 2010. [52] "IEA bioenergy" (http:/ / www. ieabioenergy. com/ IEABioenergy. aspx). IEA bioenergy. . Retrieved 2010-07-14. [53] "Press Conference Launching International Biofuels Forum" (http:/ / www. un. org/ News/ briefings/ docs/ 2007/ 070302_Biofuels. doc. htm). United Nations Department of Public Information. 2007-03-02. . Retrieved 2008-01-15. [54] Greenpeace - The Russian Forests (http:/ / archive. greenpeace. org/ comms/ cbio/ russia. html) [55] Moscow Times - World's Largest Pellet Plant to Start by Year-End (http:/ / www. themoscowtimes. com/ business/ article/ worlds-largest-pellet-plant-to-start-by-year-end/ 421905. html)

57

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58

Further reading
• Caye Drapcho, Nhuan Phú Nghiêm, Terry Walker (August 2008). Biofuels Engineering Process Technology (http://www.mhprofessional.com/product.php?isbn=0071487492). [McGraw-Hill]. ISBN 9780071487498. • IChemE Energy Conversion Technology Subject Group (May 2009). A Biofuels Compendium (http://www. icheme.org/biofuelscompendium). [IChemE]. ISBN 9780852955338. • Fuel Quality Directive Impact Assessment (http://www.europarl.europa.eu/registre/docs_autres_institutions/ commission_europeenne/sec/2007/0055/COM_SEC(2007)0055_EN.pdf) • Biofuels Journal (http://www.future-science.com/loi/bfs) • James Smith (November 2010). Biofuels and the Globalisation of Risk (http://www.zedbooks.co.uk/book. asp?bookdetail=4363). [Zed Books]. ISBN 9781848135727. • Mitchell, Donald (2010) (Available in PDF). Biofuels in Africa: Opportunities, Prospects, and Challenges (http:// africaknowledgelab.worldbank.org/akl/node/67). The World Bank, Washington, D.C.. ISBN 978-0821385166.

External links
• Investing in Alternative (http://www.investinginalternative.com/Moringa_Investment_Investin.html) - Biofuel Research • Alternative Fueling Station Locator (http://www.eere.energy.gov/afdc/fuels/stations_locator.html) (EERE). • Towards Sustainable Production and Use of Resources: Assessing Biofuels (http://www.unep.fr/scp/rpanel/ pdf/Assessing_Biofuels_Full_Report.pdf) by the United Nations Environment Programme, October 2009. • Biofuels guidance for businesses, including permits and licences required (http://www.netregs.gov.uk/netregs/ 94953.aspx) on NetRegs.gov.uk • How Much Water Does It Take to Make Electricity? (http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/apr08/6182) -- Natural gas requires the least water to produce energy, some biofuels the most, according to a new study. • International Conference on Biofuels Standards (http://ec.europa.eu/energy/res/events/biofuels.htm) European Union Biofuels Standardization • International Energy Agency: Biofuels for Transport - An International Perspective (http://www.iea.org/ textbase/nppdf/free/2004/biofuels2004.pdf) • Biofuels from Biomass: Technology and Policy Considerations (http://web.mit.edu/professional/ short-programs/courses/biofuels_biomass.html) Thorough overview from MIT • The Guardian news on biofuels (http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/biofuels) • The U.S. DOE Clean Cities Program (http://www1.eere.energy.gov/cleancities/) - links to all of the Clean Cities coalitions that exist throughout the U.S. (there are 87 of them)

Earth's energy budget

59

Earth's energy budget
The Earth can be considered as a physical system with an energy budget that includes all gains of incoming energy and all losses of outgoing energy. The planet is approximately in equilibrium, so the sum of the gains is approximately equal to the sum of the losses. Note on accompanying images: These graphics depict only net energy transfer. There is no attempt to depict the role of greenhouse gases and the exchange that occurs between the Earth's surface and the atmosphere or any other exchanges.

The energy budget
Incoming energy
The total solar flux of energy entering the Earth's atmosphere is estimated at 174 petawatts. This flux consists of: • solar radiation (99.97%, or nearly 173 petawatts; or about 340 W m−2) • This is equal to the product of the solar constant, about 1,366 watts per square metre, and the area of the Earth's disc as seen from the Sun, about 1.28 × 1014 square metres, averaged over the Earth's surface, which is four times larger. The solar flux averaged over just the sunlit half of the Earth's surface is about 680 W m−2 • This is the incident energy. The energy actually absorbed by the earth is lower by a factor of the This image is from a NASA site explaining the effects of clouds on co-albedo; this is discussed in the next section. the Earth's Energy Budget • Note that the solar constant varies (by approximately 0.1% over a solar cycle); and is not known absolutely to within better than about one watt per square metre. Hence the geothermal, tidal, and waste heat contributions are less than the uncertainty in the solar power. • geothermal energy (0.025%; or about 44[2] to 47[3] terawatts; or about 0.08 W m−2) • This is produced by stored heat and heat produced by radioactive decay leaking out of the Earth's interior. • tidal energy (0.002%, or about 3 terawatts; or about 0.0059 W m−2)
A schematic representation of the energy exchanges between the Earth's surface, the Earth's atmosphere, and outer space. Note that the total energy entering each level is equal to the energy leaving that level as should be expected for a system in balance.

Earth's energy budget

60

• This is produced by the interaction of the Earth's mass with the gravitational fields of other bodies such as the Moon and Sun. • waste heat from fossil fuel consumption (about 0.007%, or about 13 terawatts; or about 0.025 W m−2)[4] The total energy used by commercial energy sources from 1880 to 2000 (including fossil fuels and nuclear) is calculated to be 17.3x1021Joules.[5] There are other minor sources of energy that are usually ignored in these calculations: accretion of interplanetary dust and solar wind, light from distant stars, the thermal radiation of space. Although these are Solar energy as it is dispersed on the planet and radiated back to [1] space. Values are in PW =1015 watt. now known to be negligibly small, this was not always obvious: Joseph Fourier initially thought radiation from deep space was significant when he discussed the Earth's energy budget in a paper often cited as the first on the greenhouse effect.[6]

Outgoing energy
The average albedo (reflectivity) of the Earth is about 0.3, which means that 30% of the incident solar energy is reflected into space, while 70% is absorbed by the Earth and reradiated as infrared. The planet's albedo varies from month to month and place to place, but 0.3 is the average figure. The contributions from geothermal and tidal power sources are so small that they are omitted from the following calculations. 30% of the incident energy is reflected, consisting of: • 6% reflected from the atmosphere • 20% reflected from clouds • 4% reflected from the ground (including land, water and ice) The remaining 70% of the incident energy is absorbed: • 51% is absorbed by land and water, and then emerges in the following ways: • 23% is transferred back into the atmosphere as latent heat by the evaporation of water, called latent heat flux • 7% is transferred back into the atmosphere by heated rising air, called Sensible heat flux • 6% is radiated directly into space • 15% is transferred into the atmosphere by radiation, then reradiated into Earth's longwave thermal radiation intensity, from clouds, atmosphere and ground space • 19% is absorbed by the atmosphere and clouds, including: • 16% reradiated into space • 3% transferred to clouds, from where it is radiated back into space When the Earth is at thermal equilibrium, the same 70% that is absorbed is reradiated:

Earth's energy budget • 64% by the clouds and atmosphere • 6% by the ground .

61

References
[1] Data to produce this graphic was taken from a NASA publication. [2] Pollack, H.N.; S. J. Hurter, and J. R. Johnson (1993). "Heat Flow from the Earth's Interior: Analysis of the Global Data Set" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 1993/ 93RG01249. shtml). Rev. Geophys. 30 (3): pp. 267–280. [3] J. H. Davies and D. R. Davies, "Earth’s Surface heat flux," Solid Earth, 1, 5–24 (2010), available in pdf form (http:/ / www. solid-earth. net/ 1/ 5/ 2010/ se-1-5-2010. pdf) here (accessed 8 October 2010) [4] (http:/ / mustelid. blogspot. com/ 2005/ 04/ global-warming-is-not-from-waste-heat. html) [5] Nordell, Bo; Bruno Gervet. Global energy accumulation and net heat emission (http:/ / www. ltu. se/ polopoly_fs/ 1. 5035!nordell-gervet ijgw. pdf). . Retrieved 2009-12-23. [6] Connolley, William M. (18 May 2003). "William M. Connolley's page about Fourier 1827: MEMOIRE sur les temperatures du globe terrestre et des espaces planetaires" (http:/ / www. wmconnolley. org. uk/ sci/ fourier_1827/ ). William M. Connolley. . Retrieved 5 July 2010.

• "Earth's Energy Budget", Oklahoma Climatological Survey (http://okfirst.ocs.ou.edu/train/meteorology/ EnergyBudget2.html) • "Earth's Energy Budget" graphic, NASA (http://asd-www.larc.nasa.gov/erbe/components2.gif) • "Understanding the Heat Budget", cricketmx.com (http://www.cricketmx.com/articles/read/ understanding-the-heat-budget/)

Earth's radiation balance
Earth's radiation balance is the equation of the incoming and outgoing thermal radiation. The incoming solar radiation is short wave, therefore the equation below is called the short wave radiation balance Qs: Qs = G - R = D + H - R or depending on the albedo (back-reflection to space): = G (1 - a) • • • • • G = global radiation D = direct radiation H = diffuse radiation R = reflected portion of global radiation (ca. 4%) a = albedo
An instrument for measuring the net radiation balance and albedo.

The Earth's surface and atmosphere emits heat radiation Model shown CNR 1. Courtesy of Kipp & Zonen in the infrared spectrum, called long wave radiation. There is little overlap between the long wave radiation spectrum and the solar radiation spectrum. The equation below expresses the long wave radiation balance Ql: Ql = AE = AO - AG • AE = effective radiation • AO = radiation of the Earth's surface • AG = trapped radiation (radiation forcing, also known as the so called greenhouse effect) The two equations on incoming and outgoing radiation can be combined to show the net total amount of radiation energy, total radiation balance Qt: Qt = Qs - Ql = G - R - AE

Earth's radiation balance The difficulty is to precisely quantify the various internal and external factors influencing the radiation balance. Internal factors include all mechanisms affecting atmospheric composition (volcanism, biological activity, land use change, human activities etc.). The main external factor is solar radiation. The sun's average luminosity changes little over time. External and internal factors are also closely interconnected. Increased solar radiation for example results in higher average temperatures and higher water vapour content of the atmosphere. Water vapour, a heat trapping gas absorbing infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's surface, can lead to either higher temperatures through radiation forces or lower temperatures as a result of increased cloud formation and hence increased albedo.

62

Fossil fuel
Fossil fuels are fuels formed by natural processes such as anaerobic decomposition of buried dead organisms. The age of the organisms and their resulting fossil fuels is typically millions of years, and sometimes exceeds 650 million years.[1] The fossil fuels, which contain high percentages of carbon, include coal, petroleum, and natural gas. Fossil fuels range from volatile materials with low carbon:hydrogen ratios like methane, to liquid petroleum to nonvolatile materials composed of almost pure carbon, like anthracite coal. Methane can be found in hydrocarbon fields, alone, associated with oil, or in the form of methane clathrates. It is generally accepted that they formed from the fossilized remains of dead plants and animals[2] by exposure to heat and pressure in the Earth's crust over millions of years.[3] This biogenic theory was first introduced by Georg Agricola in 1556 and later by Mikhail Lomonosov in the 18th century.

Coal, one of the fossil fuels.

It was estimated by the Energy Information Administration that in 2007 primary sources of energy consisted of petroleum 36.0%, coal 27.4%, natural gas 23.0%, amounting to an 86.4% share for fossil fuels in primary energy consumption in the world.[4] Non-fossil sources in 2006 included hydroelectric 6.3%, nuclear 8.5%, and others (geothermal, solar, tide, wind, wood, waste) amounting to 0.9 percent.[5] World energy consumption was growing about 2.3% per year. Fossil fuels are non-renewable resources because they take millions of years to form, and reserves are being depleted much faster than new ones are being made. The production and use of fossil fuels raise environmental concerns. A global movement toward the generation of renewable energy is therefore under way to help meet increased energy needs. The burning of fossil fuels produces around 21.3 billion tonnes (21.3 gigatonnes) of carbon dioxide (CO2) per year, but it is estimated that natural processes can only absorb about half of that amount, so there is a net increase of 10.65 billion tonnes of atmospheric carbon dioxide per year (one tonne of atmospheric carbon is equivalent to 44/12 or 3.7 tonnes of carbon dioxide).[6] Carbon dioxide is one of the greenhouse gases that enhances radiative forcing and contributes to global warming, causing the average surface temperature of the Earth to rise in response, which most climate scientists agree will cause major adverse effects.

Fossil fuel

63

Origin
Petroleum and natural gas are formed by the anaerobic decomposition of remains of organisms including phytoplankton and zooplankton that settled to the sea (or lake) bottom in large quantities under anoxic conditions, millions of years ago. Over geological time, this organic matter, mixed with mud, got buried under heavy layers of sediment. The resulting high levels of heat and pressure caused the organic matter to chemically alter, first into a waxy material known as kerogen which is found in oil shales, and then with more heat into liquid and gaseous hydrocarbons in a process known as catagenesis. There is a wide range of renewable, or hydrocarbon, compounds in any given fuel mixture. The specific mixture of hydrocarbons gives a fuel its characteristic properties, such as boiling point, melting point, density, viscosity, etc. Some fuels like natural gas, for instance, contain only very low boiling, gaseous components. Others such as gasoline or diesel contain much higher boiling components. Terrestrial plants, on the other hand, tend to form coal and methane. Many of the coal fields date to the Carboniferous period of Earth's history. Terrestrial plants also form type III kerogen, a source of natural gas.

Importance
Fossil fuels are of great importance because they can be burned (oxidized to carbon dioxide and water), producing significant amounts of energy per unit weight. The use of coal as a fuel predates recorded history. Coal was used to run furnaces for the melting of metal ore. Semi-solid hydrocarbons from seeps were also burned in ancient times,[7] but these materials were mostly used for waterproofing and embalming.[8] Commercial exploitation of petroleum, largely as a replacement for oils from animal sources (notably whale oil), for use in oil lamps began in the 19th century.[9] Natural gas, once flared-off as an unneeded byproduct of petroleum production, is now considered a very valuable resource.[10] Heavy crude oil, which is much more viscous than conventional crude oil, and tar sands, where bitumen is found mixed with sand and clay, An oil well in the Gulf of Mexico are becoming more important as sources of fossil fuel.[11] Oil shale and similar materials are sedimentary rocks containing kerogen, a complex mixture of high-molecular weight organic compounds, which yield synthetic crude oil when heated (pyrolyzed). These materials have yet to be exploited commercially.[12] These fuels can be employed in internal combustion engines, fossil fuel power stations and other uses. Prior to the latter half of the 18th century, windmills and watermills provided the energy needed for industry such as milling flour, sawing wood or pumping water, and burning wood or peat provided domestic heat. The widescale use of fossil fuels, coal at first and petroleum later, to fire steam engines enabled the Industrial Revolution. At the same time, gas lights using natural gas or coal gas were coming into wide use. The invention of the internal combustion engine and its use in

Fossil fuel

64 automobiles and trucks greatly increased the demand for gasoline and diesel oil, both made from fossil fuels. Other forms of transportation, railways and aircraft, also required fossil fuels. The other major use for fossil fuels is in generating electricity and as feedstock for the petrochemical industry. Tar, a leftover of petroleum extraction, is used in construction of roads.

Levels and flows
Levels of primary energy sources are the reserves in the ground. Flows are production. The most important part of primary energy sources are the carbon based fossil energy sources. Coal, oil, and natural gas provided 79.6% of primary energy production during 2002 (in million tonnes of oil equivalent (mtoe)) (34.9+23.5+21.2).
A petrochemical refinery in Grangemouth, Scotland, UK

Levels (proved reserves) during 2005-2007 • Coal: 997,748 million short tonnes (905 billion metric tonnes),[13] 4416 billion barrels (702.1 km3) of oil equivalent • Oil: 1119 billion barrels (177.9 km3) to 1317 billion barrels (209.4 km3)[14] • Natural gas: 6,183-6,381 trillion cubic feet (175-181 trillion cubic metres),[14] 1161 billion barrels (184.6×109 m3) of oil equivalent Flows (daily production) during 2006 • Coal: 18,476,127 short tonnes (16,761,260 metric tonnes),[15] 52000000 barrels ( m3) of oil equivalent per day • Oil: 84000000 barrels per day ( m3/d)[16] • Natural gas: 104,435 billion cubic feet (2,960 billion cubic metres),[17] 19000000 barrels ( m3) of oil equivalent per day Years of production left in the ground with the current proved reserves and flows above • Coal: 148 years • Oil: 43 years • Natural gas: 61 years Years of production left in the ground with the most optimistic proved reserve estimates (Oil & Gas Journal, World Oil) • Coal: 417 years • Oil: 43 years • Natural gas: 167 years The calculation above assumes that the product could be produced at a constant level for that number of years and that all of the proved reserves could be recovered. In reality, consumption of all three resources has been increasing. While this suggests that the resource will be used up more quickly, in reality, the production curve is much more akin to a bell curve. At some point in time, the production of each resource within an area, country, or globally will reach a maximum value, after which, the production will decline until it reaches a point where is no longer economically feasible or physically possible to produce. See Hubbert peak theory for detail on this decline curve with regard to petroleum. Note also that proved reserve estimates do not include strategic reserves, which (globally)

Fossil fuel amount to 4.1 billion more barrels. The above discussion emphasizes worldwide energy balance. It is also valuable to understand the ratio of reserves to annual consumption (R/C) by region or country. For example, energy policy of the United Kingdom recognizes that Europe's R/C value is 3.0, very low by world standards, and exposes that region to energy vulnerability. Alternatives to fossil fuels are a subject of intense debate worldwide.

65

Limits and alternatives
The principle of supply and demand suggests that as hydrocarbon supplies diminish, prices will rise. Therefore higher prices will lead to increased alternative, renewable energy supplies as previously uneconomic sources become sufficiently economical to exploit. Artificial gasolines and other renewable energy sources currently require more expensive production and processing technologies than conventional petroleum reserves, but may become economically viable in the near future. See Energy development. Different alternative sources of energy include nuclear, hydroelectric, solar, wind, and geothermal.

Environmental effects
In the United States, more than 90% of greenhouse gas emissions come from the combustion of fossil fuels.[18] Combustion of fossil fuels also produces other air pollutants, such as nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, volatile organic compounds and heavy metals. According to Environment Canada: "The electricity sector is unique among industrial sectors in its very large contribution to emissions associated with nearly all air issues. Electricity generation produces a Global fossil carbon emission by fuel type, 1800-2007. Note: Carbon only represents 27% large share of Canadian of the mass of CO2 nitrogen oxides and sulphur dioxide emissions, which contribute to smog and acid rain and the formation of fine particulate matter. It is the largest uncontrolled industrial source of mercury emissions in Canada. Fossil fuel-fired electric power plants also emit carbon dioxide, which may contribute to climate change. In addition, the sector has significant impacts on water and habitat and species. In particular, hydro dams and transmission lines have significant effects on water and biodiversity."[19]

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According to U.S. Scientist Jerry Mahlman and USA Today: Mahlman, who crafted the IPCC language used to define levels of scientific certainty, says the new report will lay the blame at the feet of fossil fuels with "virtual certainty," meaning 99% sure. That's a significant jump from "likely," or 66% sure, in the group's last report in 2001, Mahlman says. His role in this year's effort involved spending two months reviewing the more than 1,600 pages of research that went into the new assessment.[20] Combustion of fossil fuels generates Carbon dioxide variations over the last 400,000 years, showing a rise since the industrial revolution. sulfuric, carbonic, and nitric acids, which fall to Earth as acid rain, impacting both natural areas and the built environment. Monuments and sculptures made from marble and limestone are particularly vulnerable, as the acids dissolve calcium carbonate. Fossil fuels also contain radioactive materials, mainly uranium and thorium, which are released into the atmosphere. In 2000, about 12,000 tonnes of thorium and 5,000 tonnes of uranium were released worldwide from burning coal.[21] It is estimated that during 1982, US coal burning released 155 times as much radioactivity into the atmosphere as the Three Mile Island incident.[22] However, this radioactivity from coal burning is minuscule at each source and has not shown to have any adverse effect on human physiology. Burning coal also generates large amounts of bottom ash and fly ash. These materials are used in a wide variety of applications, utilizing, for example, about 40% of the US production.[23] Harvesting, processing, and distributing fossil fuels can also create environmental concerns. Coal mining methods, particularly mountaintop removal and strip mining, have negative environmental impacts, and offshore oil drilling poses a hazard to aquatic organisms. Oil refineries also have negative environmental impacts, including air and water pollution. Transportation of coal requires the use of diesel-powered locomotives, while crude oil is typically transported by tanker ships, each of which requires the combustion of additional fossil fuels. Environmental regulation uses a variety of approaches to limit these emissions, such as command-and-control (which mandates the amount of pollution or the technology used), economic incentives, or voluntary programs. An example of such regulation in the USA is the "EPA is implementing policies to reduce airborne mercury emissions. Under regulations issued in 2005, coal-fired power plants will need to reduce their emissions by 70 percent by 2018.".[24] In economic terms, pollution from fossil fuels is regarded as a negative externality. Taxation is considered one way to make societal costs explicit, in order to 'internalize' the cost of pollution. This aims to make fossil fuels more expensive, thereby reducing their use and the amount of pollution associated with them, along with raising the funds necessary to counteract these factors. Former CIA Director James Woolsey recently outlined the national security arguments in favor of moving away from fossil fuels.[25]

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References
[1] Paul Mann, Lisa Gahagan, and Mark B. Gordon, "Tectonic setting of the world's giant oil and gas fields," in Michel T. Halbouty (ed.) Giant Oil and Gas Fields of the Decade, 1990-1999 (http:/ / books. google. com/ books?id=mrghwzjeU-AC& pg=PA50& lpg=PA50& dq="precambrian+ oil"+ halbouty& source=bl& ots=xGS8yx9cUn& sig=kAQvoCdognlM-k0bDI2ZLCj5ri4& hl=en& ei=bo8_SoSNJZPCsQPYgvS6Dw& sa=X& oi=book_result& ct=result& resnum=1), Tulsa, Okla.: American Association of Petroleum Geologists, p.50, accessed 22 June 2009. [2] Dr. Irene Novaczek. "Canada's Fossil Fuel Dependency" (http:/ / www. elements. nb. ca/ theme/ fuels/ irene/ novaczek. htm). Elements. . Retrieved 2007-01-18. [3] "Fossil fuel" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20070312054557/ http:/ / oaspub. epa. gov/ trs/ trs_proc_qry. navigate_term?p_term_id=7068& p_term_cd=TERM). EPA. Archived from the original (http:/ / oaspub. epa. gov/ trs/ trs_proc_qry. navigate_term?p_term_id=7068& p_term_cd=TERM) on March 12, 2007. . Retrieved 2007-01-18. [4] "U.S. EIA International Energy Statistics" (http:/ / tonto. eia. doe. gov/ cfapps/ ipdbproject/ IEDIndex3. cfm). . Retrieved 2010-01-12. [5] "International Energy Annual 2006" (http:/ / www. eia. doe. gov/ iea/ overview. html). . Retrieved 2009-02-08. [6] "US Department of Energy on greenhouse gases" (http:/ / www. eia. doe. gov/ oiaf/ 1605/ ggccebro/ chapter1. html). . Retrieved 2007-09-09. [7] "Encyclopedia Britannica, use of oil seeps in accient times" (http:/ / www. britannica. com/ ebc/ article-50695). . Retrieved 2007-09-09. [8] Bilkadi, Zayn (1994). "BULLS FROM THE SEA : Ancient Oil Industries". Aramco World. Archived (http:/ / web. archive. org/ 20071113215013/ http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20071113215013/ http:/ / www. gr8dubai. com/ oil2. htm) November 13, 2007 at the Wayback Machine. [9] Ball, Max W.; Douglas Ball, Daniel S. Turner (1965). This Fascinating Oil Business. Indianapolis: Bobbs-Merrill. ISBN 0-672-50829-X. [10] Kaldany,, Rashad, Director Oil, Gas, Mining and Chemicals Dept, World Bank (December 13, 2006). "Global Gas Flaring Reduction: A Time for Action!" (http:/ / www. worldbank. org/ html/ fpd/ ggfrforum06/ kadany. pdf) (PDF). Global Forum on Flaring & Gas Utilization. Paris. . Retrieved 2007-09-09. [11] "Oil Sands Global Market Potential 2007" (http:/ / www. prlog. org/ 10026386-oil-sands-global-market-potential-2007. html). . Retrieved 2007-09-09. [12] "US Department of Energy plans for oil shale development" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20070813012953/ http:/ / www. fossil. energy. gov/ programs/ reserves/ npr/ NPR_Oil_Shale_Program. html). Archived from the original (http:/ / www. fossil. energy. gov/ programs/ reserves/ npr/ NPR_Oil_Shale_Program. html) on August 13, 2007. . Retrieved 2007-09-09. [13] World Estimated Recoverable Coal (http:/ / www. eia. doe. gov/ pub/ international/ iea2005/ table82. xls) [14] World Proved Reserves of Oil and Natural Gas, Most Recent Estimates (http:/ / www. eia. doe. gov/ emeu/ international/ reserves. xls) [15] http:/ / www. eia. doe. gov/ pub/ international/ iealf/ table14. xls [16] http:/ / www. eia. doe. gov/ emeu/ international/ RecentPetroleumConsumptionBarrelsperDay. xls [17] http:/ / www. eia. doe. gov/ pub/ international/ iealf/ table13. xls [18] US EPA.2000. Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-1998, Rep. EPA 236-R-00-01. US EPA, Washington, DC, http:/ / www. epa. gov/ globalwarming [19] "Electricity Generation" (http:/ / www. ec. gc. ca/ cleanair-airpur/ Electricity-WSDC4D330A-1_En. htm). . Retrieved 2007-03-23. [20] O'Driscoll, Patrick; Vergano, Dan (2007-03-01). "Fossil fuels are to blame, world scientists conclude" (http:/ / www. usatoday. com/ tech/ science/ 2007-01-30-ipcc-report_x. htm). USA Today. . Retrieved 2010-05-02. [21] Coal Combustion: Nuclear Resource or Danger (http:/ / www. ornl. gov/ info/ ornlreview/ rev26-34/ text/ colmain. html) - Alex Gabbard [22] Nuclear proliferation through coal burning (http:/ / www. physics. ohio-state. edu/ ~aubrecht/ coalvsnucMarcon. pdf#page=8) - Gordon J. Aubrecht, II, Ohio State University [23] American Coal Ash Association. "CCP Production and Use Survey" (http:/ / www. acaa-usa. org/ PDF/ 2005_CCP_Production_and_Use_Figures_Released_by_ACAA. pdf) (PDF). . [24] "Frequently Asked Questions, Information on Proper Disposal of Compact Fluorescent Light Bulbs (CFLs)" (http:/ / www. energystar. gov/ ia/ partners/ promotions/ change_light/ downloads/ Fact_Sheet_Mercury. pdf) (PDF). . Retrieved 2007-03-19. [25] Video of Woolsey speech (http:/ / www. law. uh. edu/ eelpj/ symposium. html)

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External links
• "The Coming Energy Crisis?" (http://www.wtrg.com/EnergyCrisis/index.html) - essay by James L. Williams of WTRG Economics and A. F. Alhajji of Ohio Northern University • "Powering the Future" (http://www7.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0508/feature1/fulltext.html) - Michael Parfit (National Geographic) • "Federal Fossil Fuel Subsidies and Greenhouse Gas Emissions" (http://www.mindfully.org/Energy/ Fossil-Fuel-Subsidies.htm) • Fossil Fuel Subsidies in Europe (http://archive.greenpeace.org/comms/97/climate/eusub.html) • Oil companies hit by 'state' cyber attacks (http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/01/25/oil_companies_attacked) Debate • The Origin of Methane (and Oil) in the Crust of the Earth (http://web.archive.org/web/20021015163818/ www.people.cornell.edu/pages/tg21/usgs.html)-Thomas Gold (Internet Archives)

Global dimming
Global dimming is the gradual reduction in the amount of global direct irradiance at the Earth's surface that was observed for several decades after the start of systematic measurements in the 1950s. The effect varies by location, but worldwide it has been estimated to be of the order of a 4% reduction over the three decades from 1960–1990. However, after discounting an anomaly caused by the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, a very slight reversal in the overall trend has been observed.[1] It is thought to have been caused by an increase in particulates such as sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere due to human action. Global dimming has interfered with the hydrological cycle by reducing evaporation and may have reduced rainfall in some areas. Global dimming also creates a cooling effect that may have partially masked the effect of greenhouse gases on global warming. Deliberate manipulation of this dimming effect is now being considered as a geoengineering technique to reduce the impact of global warming.

Causes and effects
It is thought that global dimming is probably due to the increased presence of aerosol particles in the atmosphere caused by human action.[2] Aerosols and other particulates absorb solar energy and reflect sunlight back into space. The pollutants can also become nuclei for cloud droplets. Water droplets in clouds coalesce around the particles.[3] Increased pollution causes more particulates and thereby creates clouds consisting of a greater number of smaller droplets (that is, the same amount of water is spread over more droplets). The smaller droplets make clouds more reflective, so that more incoming sunlight is reflected back into space and less reaches the Earth's surface. In models, these smaller droplets also decrease rainfall.[4] Clouds intercept both heat from the sun and heat radiated from the Earth. Their effects are complex and vary in time, location, and altitude. Usually during the daytime the interception of sunlight predominates, giving a cooling effect; however, at night the re-radiation of heat to the Earth slows the Earth's heat loss.

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Research
In the late-1960s, Mikhail Ivanovich Budyko worked with simple two-dimensional energy-balance climate models to investigate the reflectivity of ice.[5] He found that the ice-albedo feedback created a positive feedback loop in the Earth's climate system. The more snow and ice, the more solar radiation is reflected back into space and hence the colder Earth grows and the more it snows. Other studies found that pollution or a volcano eruption could provoke the onset of an ice age.[6] [7] In the mid-1980s, Atsumu Ohmura, a geography researcher at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, found that solar radiation striking the Earth's surface had declined by more than 10% over the three previous decades. His findings appeared to contradict global warming—the global temperature had been generally rising since the 70s. Less light reaching the earth seemed to mean that it should cool. Ohmura published his findings "Secular variation of global radiation in Europe" in 1989.[8] This was soon followed by others: Viivi Russak in 1990 "Trends of solar radiation, cloudiness and atmospheric transparency during recent decades in Estonia",[9] and Beate Liepert in 1994 "Solar radiation in Germany — Observed trends and an assessment of their causes".[10] Dimming has also been observed in sites all over the former Soviet Union.[11] Gerry Stanhill who studied these declines worldwide in many papers (see references) coined the term "global dimming".[12]
Eastern China. Dozens of fires burning on the surface (red dots) and a thick pall of smoke and haze (greyish pixels) filling the skies overhead. Photo taken by MODIS aboard NASA's Aqua satellite.

Independent research in Israel and the Netherlands in the late 1980s showed an apparent reduction in the amount of sunlight,[13] despite widespread evidence that the climate was actually becoming hotter. The rate of dimming varies around the world but is on average estimated at around 2–3% per decade. The trend reversed in the early 1990s. [1] It is difficult to make a precise measurement, due to the difficulty in accurately calibrating the instruments used, and the problem of spatial coverage. Nonetheless, the effect is almost certainly present. The effect (2–3%, as above) is due to changes within the Earth's atmosphere; the value of the solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere has not changed by more than a fraction of this amount.[14] The effect varies greatly over the planet, but estimates of the terrestrial surface average value are: • 5.3% (9 W/m²); over 1958–85 (Stanhill and Moreshet, 1992)[12] • 2%/decade over 1964–93 (Gilgen et al., 1998)[15] • 4% over 1961–90 (Liepert 2002)[17] Note that these numbers are for the terrestrial surface and not really a global average. Whether dimming (or brightening) occurred over the ocean has been a bit of an unknown though a specific measurement (see below, Causes) measured effects some 400 miles (643.7 km) from India over the Indian Ocean towards the Maldives Islands. Regional effects probably dominate but are not strictly confined to the land area, and the effects will be driven by regional air circulation. A 2009 review by Wild et al.[18] found that widespread variation in regional and time effects. There was solar brightening beyond 2000 at numerous stations in Europe, the United States, and Korea. The brightening seen at sites in Antarctica during the 1990s, influenced by recovering from the Mount Pinatubo
Smog at the Golden Gate Bridge. Smog is a likely contributor to global dimming.

• 2.7%/decade (total 20 W/m²); up to 2000 (Stanhill and Cohen, 2001)[16]

Global dimming volcanic eruption in 1991, fades after 2000. The brightening tendency also seems to level off at sites in Japan. In China there is some indication for a renewed dimming, after the stabilization in the 1990s. A continuation of the long-lasting dimming is also noted at the sites in India. Overall, the available data suggest continuation of the brightening beyond the year 2000 at numerous locations, yet less pronounced and coherent than during the 1990s, with more regions with no clear changes or declines. Therefore, globally, greenhouse warming after 2000 may be less modulated by surface solar variations than in prior decades. The largest reductions are found in the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes.[19] Visible light and infrared radiation seem to be most affected rather than the ultraviolet part of the spectrum.[20]

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Pan evaporation data
Over the last 50 or so years, pan evaporation has been carefully monitored. For decades, nobody took much notice of the pan evaporation measurements. But in the 1990s in Europe, Israel, and North America, scientists spotted something that at the time was considered very strange: the rate of evaporation was falling although they had expected it to increase due to global warming.[21] The same trend has been observed in China over a similar period. A decrease in solar irradiance is cited as the driving force. However, unlike in other areas of the world, in China the decrease in solar irradiance was not always accompanied by an increase in cloud cover and precipitation. It is believed that aerosols may play a critical role in the decrease of solar irradiance in China.[22] BBC Horizon producer David Sington believes that many climate scientists regard the pan-evaporation data as the most convincing evidence of solar dimming.[23] Pan evaporation experiments are easy to reproduce with low-cost equipment, there are many pans used for agriculture all over the world and in many instances the data has been collected for nearly a half century. However, pan evaporation depends on some additional factors besides net radiation from the sun. The other two major factors are vapor pressure deficit and wind speed.[24] The ambient temperature turns out to be a negligible factor. The pan evaporation data corroborates the data gathered by radiometer[16] [21] and fills in the gaps in the data obtained using pyranometers. With adjustments to these factors, pan evaporation data has been compared to results of climate simulations.[25]

Probable causes
The incomplete combustion of fossil fuels (such as diesel) and wood releases black carbon into the air. Though black carbon, most of which is soot, is an extremely small component of air pollution at land surface levels, the phenomenon has a significant heating effect on the atmosphere at altitudes above two kilometers (6,562 ft). Also, it dims the surface of the ocean by absorbing solar radiation.[27] Experiments in the Maldives (comparing the atmosphere over the northern and southern islands) in the 1990s showed that the effect of macroscopic pollutants in the atmosphere at that time (blown south NASA photograph showing aircraft contrails and from India) caused about a 10% reduction in sunlight reaching the natural clouds. The temporary disappearance of contrails over North America due to plane surface in the area under the pollution cloud — a much greater groundings after the September 11, 2001 attacks, reduction than expected from the presence of the particles and the resulting increase in diurnal temperature themselves.[28] Prior to the research being undertaken, predictions range gave empirical evidence of the effect of [26] were of a 0.5–1% effect from particulate matter; the variation from thin ice clouds at the Earth's surface. prediction may be explained by cloud formation with the particles acting as the focus for droplet creation. Clouds are very effective at reflecting light back out into space. The phenomenon underlying global dimming may also have regional effects. While most of the earth has warmed, the regions that are downwind from major sources of air pollution (specifically sulfur dioxide emissions) have

Global dimming generally cooled. This may explain the cooling of the eastern United States relative to the warming western part.[29] However some research shows that black carbon will actually increase global warming, being second only to CO2. They believe that soot will absorb solar energy and transport it to other areas such as the Himalayas where glacial melting occurs. It can also darken Arctic ice reducing reflectivity and increasing absorption of solar radiation.[30] Some climate scientists have theorized that aircraft contrails (also called vapor trails) are implicated in global dimming, but the constant flow of air traffic previously meant that this could not be tested. The near-total shutdown of civil air traffic during the three days following the September 11, 2001 attacks afforded a unique opportunity in which to observe the climate of the United States absent from the effect of contrails. During this period, an increase in diurnal temperature variation of over 1 °C (1.8 °F) was observed in some parts of the U.S., i.e. aircraft contrails may have been raising nighttime temperatures and/or lowering daytime temperatures by much more than previously thought.[26] Airborne volcanic ash can reflect the Sun's rays back into space and thereby contribute to cooling the planet. Dips in earth temperatures have been observed after large volcano eruptions such as Mount Agung in Bali that erupted in 1963, El Chichon (Mexico) 1983, Ruiz (Colombia) 1985, and Pinatubo (Philippines) 1991. But even for major eruptions, the ash clouds remain only for relatively short periods.[31]

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Recent reversal of the trend
Wild et al., using measurements over land, report brightening since 1990,[13] [32] [33] and Pinker et al.[34] found that slight dimming continued over land while brightening occurred over the ocean.[35] Hence, over the land surface, Wild et al. and Pinker et al. disagree. A 2007 NASA sponsored satellite-based study sheds light on the Sun-blocking aerosols around the world steadily declined (red line) since the 1991 puzzling observations by other eruption of Mount Pinatubo, according to satellite estimates. Credit: Michael scientists that the amount of sunlight Mishchenko, NASA reaching Earth's surface had been steadily declining in recent decades, began to reverse around 1990. This switch from a "global dimming" trend to a "brightening" trend happened just as global aerosol levels started to decline.[31] [36] It is likely that at least some of this change, particularly over Europe, is due to decreases in airborne pollution. Most governments of developed nations have taken steps to reduce aerosols released into the atmosphere, which helps reduce global dimming. Sulfate aerosols have declined significantly since 1970 with the Clean Air Act in the United States and similar policies in Europe. The Clean Air Act was strengthened in 1977 and 1990. According to the EPA, from 1970 to 2005, total emissions of the six principal air pollutants, including PM’s, dropped by 53% in the US. In 1975, the masked effects of trapped greenhouse gases finally started to emerge and have dominated ever since.[37] The Baseline Surface Radiation Network(BSRN) has been collecting surface measurements. BSRN was started in the early 1990s and updated the archives in this time. Analysis of recent data reveals that the surface of the planet has brightened by about 4% in the past decade. The brightening trend is corroborated by other data, including satellite analyses.

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Relationship to hydrological cycle
Pollution produced by humans may be seriously weakening the Earth's water cycle — reducing rainfall and threatening fresh water supplies. A 2001 study by researchers at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography suggests that tiny particles of soot and other pollutants have a significant effect on the hydrological cycle. According to Veerabhadran Ramanathan, "the energy for the hydrological cycle comes from sunlight. As sunlight heats the ocean, water escapes into the atmosphere and falls out as rain. So as aerosols cut down sunlight by large amounts, they may be spinning down the hydrological cycle of the planet."[38] Large scale changes in weather patterns may also have been caused by global dimming. Climate modelers speculatively suggest that this reduction in solar radiation at the surface may have led to the failure of the monsoon in sub-Saharan Africa during the 1970s and 1980s, together with the associated famines such as This figure shows the level of agreement between a climate model driven by five factors and the historical temperature record. The the Sahel drought, caused by Northern hemisphere [39] negative component identified as "sulfate" is associated with the pollution cooling the Atlantic. Because of this, the aerosol emissions blamed for global dimming. Tropical rain belt may not have risen to its northern latitudes, thus causing an absence of seasonal rains. This claim is not universally accepted and is very difficult to test. However a 2009 Chinese study of 50 years of continuous data found that though most parts of eastern China saw no significant change in the amount of water held by the atmosphere but light rains had decreased.[4] In addition, where the atmosphere transported water vapor didn't coincide with light rain frequency. The researchers then modeled the effect of aerosols and also concluded the overall effect was that water drops in polluted cases are up to 50 percent smaller than in pristine skies. They concluded smaller size impedes the formation of rain clouds and the falling of light rain beneficial for agriculture; a different effect than reducing solar irradiance, but still a direct result from the presence of aerosols. The 2001 study by researchers at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography concluded that the imbalance between global dimming and global warming at the surface leads to weaker turbulent heat fluxes to the atmosphere. This means globally reduced evaporation and hence precipitation occur in a dimmer and warmer world, which could ultimately lead to a more humid atmosphere in which it rains less.[40] A natural form of large scale environmental shading/dimming has been identified that affected the 2006 northern hemisphere hurricane season. The NASA study found that several major dust storms in June and July in the Sahara desert sent dust drifting over the Atlantic Ocean and through several effects caused cooling of the waters — and thus dampening the development of hurricanes.[41] [42]

Relationship to global warming
Some scientists now consider that the effects of global dimming have masked the effect of global warming to some extent and that resolving global dimming may therefore lead to increases in predictions of future temperature rise.[43] According to Beate Liepert, "We lived in a global warming plus a global dimming world and now we are taking out global dimming. So we end up with the global warming world, which will be much worse than we thought it will be, much hotter."[44] The magnitude of this masking effect is one of the central problems in climate change with

Global dimming significant implications for future climate changes and policy responses to global warming.[43] Interactions between the two theories for climate modification have also been studied, as global warming and global dimming are neither mutually exclusive nor contradictory. In a paper published on March 8, 2005 in the American Geophysical Union's Geophysical Research Letters, a research team led by Anastasia Romanou of Columbia University's Department of Applied Physics and Mathematics, New York, also showed that the apparently opposing forces of global warming and global dimming can occur at the same time.[45] Global dimming interacts with global warming by blocking sunlight that would otherwise cause evaporation and the particulates bind to water droplets. Water vapor is the major greenhouse gas. On the other hand, global dimming is affected by evaporation and rain. Rain has the effect of clearing out polluted skies. Brown clouds have been found to amplify global warming according to Veerabhadran Ramanathan, an atmospheric chemist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, CA. "The conventional thinking is that brown clouds have masked as much as 50 percent of global warming by greenhouse gases through so-called global dimming... While this is true globally, this study reveals that over southern and eastern Asia, the soot particles in the brown clouds are in fact amplifying the atmospheric warming trend caused by greenhouse gases by as much as 50 percent."[46]

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Possible use to mitigate global warming
Some scientists have suggested using aerosols to stave off the effects of global warming as an emergency geoengineering measure.[47] In 1974, Mikhail Budyko suggested that if global warming became a problem, the planet could be cooled by burning sulfur in the stratosphere, which would create a haze.[48] [49] An increase in planetary albedo of just 0.5 percent is sufficient to halve the effect of a CO2 doubling.[50] The simplest solution would be to simply emit more sulfates, which would end up in troposphere - the lowest part of the atmosphere. If this was done, Earth would still face many problems, such as: • • • • • Using sulfates causes environmental problems such as acid rain[51] Using carbon black causes human health problems[51] Dimming causes ecological problems such as changes in evaporation and rainfall patterns[51] Droughts and/or increased rainfall cause problems for agriculture[51] Aerosol has a relatively short lifetime

The solution actually advocated is transporting sulfates into the next higher layer of the atmosphere - stratosphere. Aerosols in the stratosphere last years instead of weeks - so only a relatively smaller (though still large) amount of sulfate emissions would be necessary, and side effects would be less. This would require developing an efficient way to transport large amounts of gases into stratosphere, many of which have been proposed [52] though none are known to be effective or economically viable. In a blog post, Gavin Schmidt stated that "Ideas that we should increase aerosol emissions to counteract global warming have been described as a 'Faustian bargain' because that would imply an ever increasing amount of emissions in order to match the accumulated greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, with ever increasing monetary and health costs."[53]

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References
[1] Hegerl, G. C.; Zwiers, F. W.; Braconnot, P.; Gillett, N.P.; Luo, Y.; Marengo Orsini, J.A.; Nicholls, N.; Penner, J.E. et al. (2007). "Chapter 9, Understanding and Attributing Climate Change – Section 9.2.2 Spatial and Temporal Patterns of the Response to Different Forcings and their Uncertainties" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter9. pdf). In Marquis, M.; Qin, D.; Manning, M. et al.. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ ipccreports/ ar4-wg1. htm). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.: Cambridge University Press. . Retrieved 2008-04-13. "See 9.2.2.2" [2] Keneth L. Denman and Guy Brasseur, et al. (2007). 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"Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 173/ 3992/ 138). Science 173 (3992): 138–141. doi:10.1126/science.173.3992.138. PMID 17739641. . [7] Lockwood, John G. (1979). Causes of Climate. Lecture notes in mathematics 1358. New York: John Wiley & Sons. pp. 162. ISBN 0470266570. [8] Ohmura, A. and Lang, H. (June 1989). Lenoble, J. and Geleyn, J.-F. (Eds). ed. Secular variation of global radiation in Europe. In IRS '88: Current Problems in Atmospheric Radiation, A. Deepak Publ., Hampton, VA. , Hampton, VA: Deepak Publ.. pp. (635) pp. 298–301. ISBN 978-0-937194-16-4. [9] Russak, V. (1990). "Trends of solar radiation, cloudiness and atmospheric transparency during recent decades in Estonia". Tellus B 42 (2): 206. Bibcode 1990TellB..42..206R. doi:10.1034/j.1600-0889.1990.t01-1-00006.x. 1990TellB..42..206R. [10] Liepert, B. G., P. Fabian, et al. (1994). 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"Global dimming: a review of the evidence for a widespread and significant reduction in global radiation with discussion of its probable causes and possible agricultural consequences" (http:/ / www. sciencedirect. com/ science?_ob=ArticleURL& _udi=B6V8W-42JYVKX-1& _user=10& _rdoc=1& _fmt=& _orig=search& _sort=d& _docanchor=& view=c& _rerunOrigin=google& _acct=C000050221& _version=1& _urlVersion=0& _userid=10& md5=089bea6bf240b57ec1cc5b74b863e0f6). Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 107 (4): 255–278. doi:10.1016/S0168-1923(00)00241-0. . [17] Liepert, B. G. (2002-05-02). "Observed Reductions in Surface Solar Radiation in the United States and Worldwide from 1961 to 1990" (http:/ / www. ldeo. columbia. edu/ ~liepert/ pdf/ 2003GL019060. pdf) (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters 29 (12): 1421. doi:10.1029/2002GL014910. . [18] Wild, Martin; Trüssel, Barbara; Ohmura, Atsumu; Long, Charles N.; König-Langlo, Gert; Dutton, Ellsworth G.; Tsvetkov, Anatoly (2009-05-16). "Global dimming and brightening: An update beyond 2000" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 2009/ 2008JD011382. shtml). Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 114: D00D13. doi:10.1029/2008JD011382. . [19] R. E. Carnell, C. A. Senior (1998-04). "Changes in mid-latitude variability due to increasing greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols" (http:/ / www. springerlink. com/ content/ rreh3q3kkf79f65x/ ). Climate Dynamics Springer Berlin / Heidelberg 14 (5): 369–383. doi:10.1007/s003820050229. . [20] Adam, David (2003-12-18). "Goodbye sunshine" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ science/ 2003/ dec/ 18/ science. research1). Guardian News and Media Limited. . Retrieved 2009-08-26. [21] Roderick, Michael L. and Farquhar, Graham D. (2002). "The Cause of Decreased Pan Evaporation over the Past 50 Years" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 298/ 5597/ 1410). Science 298 (5597): 1410–1411. doi:10.1126/science.1075390. PMID 12434057. .

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[22] Liu B., Xu M., Henderson M. & Gong W. (2004). "A spatial analysis of pan evaporation trends in China, 1955-2000" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 2004/ 2004JD004511. shtml). Journal of Geophysical Research 109 (D15): D15102. doi:10.1029/2004JD004511. . [23] Sington, David (January 15, 2005). "TV&Radio follow-up" (http:/ / www. bbc. co. uk/ sn/ tvradio/ programmes/ horizon/ dimming_qa. shtml). BBC - Science & Nature - Horizon. . [24] Roderick, Michael L.; Leon D. Rotstayn, Graham D. Farquhar, Michael T. Hobbins (2007-09-13). "On the attribution of changing pan evaporation" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 2007/ 2007GL031166. shtml). Geophysical Research Letters 34 (17): L17403. doi:10.1029/2007GL031166. . [25] Rotstayn L.D., Roderick M.L. & Farquhar G.D. (2006). "A simple pan-evaporation model for analysis of climate simulations: Evaluation over Australia" (http:/ / www. rsbs. anu. edu. au/ Profiles/ Graham_Farquhar/ documents/ 235doiRotstaynpanGRL2006. pdf) (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters 33 (17): L17403. doi:10.1029/2006GL027114. . [26] Travis, David J. (2002). "Contrails reduce daily temperature range" (http:/ / facstaff. uww. edu/ travisd/ pdf/ jetcontrailsrecentresearch. pdf) (PDF). Nature 418 (6898): 601. doi:10.1038/418601a. PMID 12167846. . [27] "Transported Black Carbon A Significant Player In Pacific Ocean Climate" (http:/ / www. sciencedaily. com/ releases/ 2007/ 03/ 070314134655. htm). Science Daily. 2007-03-15. . [28] J. Srinivasan et al. (2002). "Asian Brown Cloud – fact and fantasy" (http:/ / www. ias. ac. in/ currsci/ sep102002/ 586. pdf) (PDF). Current Science 83 (5): 586–592. . [29] "Crichton's Thriller State of Fear: Separating Fact from Fiction" (http:/ / www. ucsusa. org/ global_warming/ science/ crichton-thriller-state-of-fear. html). . Retrieved 2006-06-12. [30] "Nature Geoscience: Global and regional climate changes due to black carbon" (http:/ / www. nature. com/ ngeo/ journal/ vaop/ ncurrent/ full/ ngeo156. html). . Retrieved 2008-03-26. [31] "Global 'Sunscreen' Has Likely Thinned, Report NASA Scientists" (http:/ / www. nasa. gov/ centers/ goddard/ news/ topstory/ 2007/ aerosol_dimming. html). NASA. 2007-03-15. . [32] Wild, M et al. (2005). "From Dimming to Brightening: Decadal Changes in Solar Radiation at Earth’s Surface" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 308/ 5723/ 847). Science 308 (2005-05-06): 847–850. doi:10.1126/science.1103215. PMID 15879214. . [33] Wild, M., A. Ohmura, and K. Makowski (2007). "Impact of global dimming and brightening on global warming" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 2007/ 2006GL028031. shtml). Geophysical Research Letters 34 (4): L04702. doi:10.1029/2006GL028031. . [34] Pinker, et al.; Zhang, B; Dutton, EG (2005). "Do Satellites Detect Trends in Surface Solar Radiation?" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 308/ 5723/ 850). Science 308 (6 May 2005): 850–854. doi:10.1126/science.1103159. PMID 15879215. . [35] "Global Dimming may have a brighter future" (http:/ / www. realclimate. org/ index. php?p=154). . Retrieved 2006-06-12. [36] Richard A. Kerr (2007-03-16). "Climate change: Is a Thinning Haze Unveiling the Real Global Warming?" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ summary/ 315/ 5818/ 1480). Science (Science) 315 (5818): 1480. doi:10.1126/science.315.5818.1480. PMID 17363636. . [37] "Air Emissions Trends - Continued Progress Through 2005" (http:/ / www. epa. gov/ airtrends/ econ-emissions. html). . [38] Cat Lazaroff (2007-12-07). "Aerosol Pollution Could Drain Earth's Water Cycle" (http:/ / ens-newswire. com/ ens/ dec2001/ 2001-12-07-07. asp). Environment News Service. . [39] Rotstayn and Lohmann; Lohmann, Ulrike (2002). "Tropical Rainfall Trends and the Indirect Aerosol Effect" (http:/ / ams. allenpress. com/ perlserv/ ?request=get-abstract& issn=1520-0442& volume=015& issue=15& page=2103). Journal of Climate 15 (15): 2103–2116. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2103:TRTATI>2.0.CO;2. . [40] Kostel, Ken and Oh, Clare (2006-04-14). "Could Reducing Global Dimming Mean a Hotter, Dryer World?" (http:/ / www. ldeo. columbia. edu/ news/ 2006/ 04_14_06. htm). Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory News. . Retrieved 2006-06-12. [41] "Study ties hurricanes to Sahara" (http:/ / www. upi. com/ NewsTrack/ Science/ 2007/ 04/ 03/ study_ties_hurricanes_to_sahara/ ). United Press International. 2007-04-03. . [42] "Did Dust Bust the 2006 Hurricane Season Forecasts?" (http:/ / www. nasa. gov/ mission_pages/ hurricanes/ archives/ 2007/ hurricane_dust. html). NASA. 2007-03-28. . [43] Andreae O. M., Jones C. D., Cox P. M. (2005). "Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future" (http:/ / www. nature. com/ nature/ journal/ v435/ n7046/ abs/ nature03671. html). Nature 435 (7046): 1187–1190. doi:10.1038/nature03671. PMID 15988515. . [44] "Global Dimming" (http:/ / www. bbc. co. uk/ sn/ tvradio/ programmes/ horizon/ dimming_trans. shtml). BBC. . Retrieved 06 April 2009. [45] Alpert, P., P. Kishcha, Y. J. Kaufman, and R. Schwarzbard (2005). "Global dimming or local dimming?: Effect of urbanization on sunlight availability" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 2005/ 2005GL023320. shtml). Geophys. Res. Lett. 32 (17): L17802. doi:10.1029/2005GL023320. . [46] National Science Foundation (2007-08-01). ""Brown Cloud" Particulate Pollution Amplifies Global Warming" (http:/ / www. nsf. gov/ news/ news_summ. jsp?cntn_id=109712). . Retrieved 2008-04-03. [47] William J. Broad (27 June 2006). "How to Cool a Planet (Maybe)" (http:/ / www. nytimes. com/ 2006/ 06/ 27/ science/ earth/ 27cool. html). The New York Times. . Retrieved 6 April 2009. [48] Spencer Weart (July 2006). "Aerosols: Effects of Haze and Cloud" (http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ aerosol. htm). The Discovery of Global Warming. American Institute of Physics. . Retrieved 06 April 2009. [49] Crutzen, P. (August 2006). "Albedo enhancement by stratospheric sulfur injections: a contribution to resolve a policy dilemma?" (http:/ / www. cogci. dk/ news/ Crutzen_albedo enhancement_sulfur injections. pdf) (PDF). Climatic Change 77 (3-4): 211–220. doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9101-y. .

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Global dimming
[50] Ramanathan, V. (1988-04-15). "The greenhouse theory of climate change: a test by an inadvertent global experiment". Science 240 (4850): 293–299. doi:10.1126/science.240.4850.293. PMID 17796737. [51] Ramanathan, V. (2006). "Atmospheric Brown Clouds: Health, Climate and Agriculture Impacts" (http:/ / www-ramanathan. ucsd. edu/ PASScriptaVaria106. pdf) (PDF). Pontifical Academy of Sciences Scripta Varia (Pontifica Academia Scientiarvm) 106 (Interactions Between Global Change and Human Health): 47–60. . [52] http:/ / climate. envsci. rutgers. edu/ pdf/ GRLreview2. pdf [53] "RealClimate: Global Dimming?" (http:/ / www. realclimate. org/ index. php?p=105). 2005-01-18. . Retrieved 2007-04-05.

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External links
Bibliographies • Roderick, Michael. "Global Dimming Bibliography" (http://www.greenhouse.crc.org.au/research/c2_bibliog. cfm). • Saunders, Alison. "Global Dimming Bibliography" (http://www.greenhouse.crc.org.au/crc/research/ c2_bibliog.htm). Notable web pages • Shah, Anup. "Global Dimming" (http://www.globalissues.org/EnvIssues/GlobalWarming/globaldimming. asp). Global Issues. • Liepert, Beate. "Global Dimming (requires flash)" (http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~liepert/media/flash/ globalDimming.swf). Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University. • Schmidt, Gavin. "Global Dimming - part 1" (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=105). RealClimate. • Liepert, Beate. "Global Dimming - part 2" (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=110). RealClimate. • Connolley, William. "Global Dimming may have a brighter future" (http://www.realclimate.org/index. php?p=154). RealClimate. • Haywood, Jim. "Met Office: Global dimming" (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/science/ explained/explained3.html). The Met Office. Podcasts • "Brown Cloud" (http://www.ecoshock.org/downloads/ecoshock/Ecoshock_BrownCloud.mp3) (mp3). Ecoshock. Q&A • "BBC Global Dimming Q&A" (http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/tvradio/programmes/horizon/dimming_qa.shtml). News articles • Adam, David (2003-12-18). "Goodbye Sunshine" (http://www.guardian.co.uk/life/feature/story/ 0,13026,1108853,00.html). The Guardian. • Chang, Kenneth (2004-05-13). "Globe Grows Darker as Sunshine Diminishes 10% to 37%" (http://www. commondreams.org/headlines04/0513-01.htm). The New York Times. • Appell, David (2004-08-02). "The Darkening Earth Less sun at the Earth's surface complicates climate models" (http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?articleID=000C3AAE-D82A-10F9-975883414B7F0000). Scientific American. • Keen, Kip (2004-09-22). "Dim Sun Global dimming? Global warming? What's with the globe, anyway?" (http:// www.grist.org/news/maindish/2004/09/22/keen-dimming). Grist Magazine. • Sington, David (2005-01-13). "Why the Sun seems to be 'dimming'" (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/ 4171591.stm). BBC News. • Onion, Amanda (2006-02-09). "Are Skies Dimming Over Earth? Data Suggest Human Pollution Can Lead to Darker Days" (http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/GlobalWarming/story?id=1566139). ABC News. • "Transported Black Carbon A Significant Player In Pacific Ocean Climate" (http://www.sciencedaily.com/ releases/2007/03/070314134655.htm). Science Daily. 2007-03-15.

Global dimming • "Global 'Sunscreen' Has Likely Thinned, Report NASA Scientists" (http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/ news/topstory/2007/aerosol_dimming.html). NASA. 2007-03-15. • Catherine, Brahic (2007-11-14). "Pollution is dimming India's sunshine" (http://environment.newscientist.com/ channel/earth/dn12919-pollution-is-dimming-indias-sunshine.html). New Scientist. • Seinfeld, John (January 2008). "Atmospheric science: Black carbon and brown clouds" (http://www.nature. com/ngeo/journal/v1/n1/full/ngeo.2007.62.html). Nature Geoscience 1 (1): 15–6. doi:10.1038/ngeo.2007.62. Slide decks • Irina N. Sokolik. "Atmospheric Aerosol and Air Pollution" (http://www.neespi.org/web-content/meetings/ IGBPbrief/Briefing_Sokolik.pdf) (PDF). School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia Institute of Technology Atlanta, GA, USA. Television programs • "Report on another consequence of global warming: the dimming effect of clouds" (http://www.bbc.co.uk/sn/ tvradio/programmes/horizon/dimming_prog_summary.shtml). BBC2 TV Horizon. 2005-01-15. • "Dimming The Sun" (http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/sun/). PBS WGBH Boston NOVA. 2006-04-18. • "BBC Horizon - Global Dimming - Google Video" (http://video.google.com/ videoplay?docid=39520879762623193). BBC Horizon.

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Global warming potential
Global warming potential (GWP) is a relative measure of how much heat a greenhouse gas traps in the atmosphere. It compares the amount of heat trapped by a certain mass of the gas in question to the amount heat trapped by a similar mass of carbon dioxide. A GWP is calculated over a specific time interval, commonly 20, 100 or 500 years. GWP is expressed as a factor of carbon dioxide (whose GMP is standardized to 1). For example, the 20 year GWP of Methane is 56, which means if the same weights of Methane and carbon dioxide were introduced into the atmosphere, that Methane will trap 56 times more heat than the carbon dioxide over the next 20 years.[1] The substances subject to restrictions under the Kyoto protocol either are rapidly increasing their concentrations in Earth's atmosphere or have a large GWP. The GWP depends on the following factors: • the absorption of infrared radiation by a given species • the spectral location of its absorbing wavelengths • the atmospheric lifetime of the species Thus, a high GWP correlates with a large infrared absorption and a long atmospheric lifetime. The dependence of GWP on the wavelength of absorption is more complicated. Even if a gas absorbs radiation efficiently at a certain wavelength, this may not affect its GWP much if the atmosphere already absorbs most radiation at that wavelength. A gas has the most effect if it absorbs in a "window" of wavelengths where the atmosphere is fairly transparent. The dependence of GWP as a function of wavelength has been found empirically and published as a graph.[2] Because the GWP of a greenhouse gas depends directly on its infrared spectrum, the use of infrared spectroscopy to study greenhouse gases is centrally important in the effort to understand the impact of human activities on global climate change.

Global warming potential

78

Calculating the global warming potential
Just as radiative forcing provides a simplified means of comparing the various factors that are believed to influence the climate system to one another, Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) are one type of simplified index based upon radiative properties that can be used to estimate the potential future impacts of emissions of different gases upon the climate system in a relative sense. GWP is based on a number of factors, including the radiative efficiency (infrared-absorbing ability) of each gas relative to that of carbon dioxide, as well as the decay rate of each gas (the amount removed from the atmosphere over a given number of years) relative to that of carbon dioxide.[3] The radiative forcing capacity (RF) is the amount of energy per unit area, per unit time, absorbed by the greenhouse gas, that would otherwise be lost to space. It can be expressed by the formula:

where the subscript i represents an interval of 10 inverse centimeters. Absi represents the integrated infrared absorbance of the sample in that interval, and Fi represents the RF for that interval. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides the generally accepted values for GWP, which changed slightly between 1996 and 2001. An exact definition of how GWP is calculated is to be found in the IPCC's 2001 Third Assessment Report [4]. The GWP is defined as the ratio of the time-integrated radiative forcing from the instantaneous release of 1 kg of a trace substance relative to that of 1 kg of a reference gas:

where TH is the time horizon over which the calculation is considered; ax is the radiative efficiency due to a unit increase in atmospheric abundance of the substance (i.e., Wm−2 kg−1) and [x(t)] is the time-dependent decay in abundance of the substance following an instantaneous release of it at time t=0. The denominator contains the corresponding quantities for the reference gas (i.e. CO2). The radiative efficiencies ax and ar are not necessarily constant over time. While the absorption of infrared radiation by many greenhouse gases varies linearly with their abundance, a few important ones display non-linear behaviour for current and likely future abundances (e.g., CO2, CH4, and N2O). For those gases, the relative radiative forcing will depend upon abundance and hence upon the future scenario adopted. Since all GWP calculations are a comparison to CO2 which is non-linear, all GWP values are affected. Assuming otherwise as is done above will lead to lower GWPs for other gases than a more detailed approach would.

Use in Kyoto Protocol
Under the Kyoto Protocol, the Conference of the Parties decided (decision 2/CP.3) that the values of GWP calculated for the IPCC Second Assessment Report are to be used for converting the various greenhouse gas emissions into comparable CO2 equivalents when computing overall sources and sinks.[5]

Importance of time horizon
Note that a substance's GWP depends on the timespan over which the potential is calculated. A gas which is quickly removed from the atmosphere may initially have a large effect but for longer time periods as it has been removed becomes less important. Thus methane has a potential of 25 over 100 years but 72 over 20 years; conversely sulfur hexafluoride has a GWP of 22,800 over 100 years but 16,300 over 20 years (IPCC TAR). The GWP value depends on how the gas concentration decays over time in the atmosphere. This is often not precisely known and hence the values should not be considered exact. For this reason when quoting a GWP it is important to give a reference to the calculation.

Global warming potential The GWP for a mixture of gases can not be determined from the GWP of the constituent gases by any form of simple linear addition. Commonly, a time horizon of 100 years is used by regulators (e.g., the California Air Resources Board).

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Values
Carbon dioxide has a GWP of exactly 1 (since it is the baseline unit to which all other greenhouse gases are compared).
GWP values and lifetimes from 2007 IPCC AR4 p212 [6] (2001 IPCC TAR [7] in parentheses) Methane Nitrous oxide HFC-23 (hydrofluorocarbon) HFC-134a (hydrofluorocarbon) sulfur hexafluoride Lifetime (years) 20 years 12         (12) 114       (114) 270       (260) 14         (13.8) 3200     (3,200) 72         (62) 289       (275) 12,000   (9400) 3,830     (3,300) GWP time horizon 100 years 25         (23) 298       (296) 500 years 7.6       (7) 153       (156)

14,800   (12,000) 12,200   (10,000) 1,430     (1,300) 435       (400)

16,300   (15,100) 22,800   (22,200) 32,600   (32,400)

Although water vapour has a significant influence with regard to absorbing infrared radiation (which is the green house effect; see greenhouse gas), its GWP is not calculated. Its concentration in the atmosphere mainly depends on air temperature. There is no possibility to directly influence atmospheric water vapour concentration.

References
[1] "Global Warming Potentials" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ ghg_data/ items/ 3825. php). Climate Change 1995, The Science of Climate Change: Summary for Policymakers. Technical Summary of the Working Group I Report, page 22.. 1995. . Retrieved 2011-04-26. [2] Matthew Elrod, "Greenhouse Warming Potential Model." (http:/ / www. chem. tamu. edu/ rgroup/ north/ ITS GWP Data. xls) Based on Journal of Chemical Education, Vol 76, pp. 1702-1705, December 1999 [3] "Glossary: Global warming potential (GWP)" (http:/ / www. eia. gov/ tools/ glossary/ index. cfm?id=G). U.S. Energy Information Administration. . Retrieved 2011-04-26. "An index used to compare the relative radiative forcing of different gases without directly calculating the changes in atmospheric concentrations. GWPs are calculated as the ratio of the radiative forcing that would result from the emission of one kilogram of a greenhouse gas to that from the emission of one kilogram of carbon dioxide over a fixed period of time, such as 100 years." [4] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 247. htm [5] Conference of the Parties (25 March 1998). "Methodological issues related to the Kyoto Protocol" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ resource/ docs/ cop3/ 07a01. pdf). Report of the Conference of the Parties on its third session, held at Kyoto from 1 to 11 December 1997 Addendum Part Two: Action taken by the Conference of the Parties at its third session. UNFCCC. . Retrieved 17 January 2011. [6] http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter2. pdf [7] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 248. htm

External links
• 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) by Working Group 1 (http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report. html) (WG1) and Chapter 2 of that report ( Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing (http:/ /www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter2.pdf)) which contains GWP information. • 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) page on Global Warming Potentials (http://www.grida.no/ climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/247.htm) and Direct GWP (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/248.htm). • List of Global Warming Potentials and Atmospheric Lifetimes (http://www.epa.gov/nonco2/econ-inv/table. html) from the U.S. EPA • Greenhouse Gases and Global Warming Potential Values, Excerpt from the Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2000 (http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/UniqueKeyLookup/

Global warming potential SHSU5BUM9T/$File/ghg_gwp.pdf) from the U.S. EPA • An overview of the role of H2O as a greenhouse gas (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=142) • GWP and the different meanings of CO2e explained (http://www.darkoptimism.org/2008/09/03/ the-climate-science-translation-guide)

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Greenhouse effect
The greenhouse effect is a process by which thermal radiation from a planetary surface is absorbed by atmospheric greenhouse gases, and is re-radiated in all directions. Since part of this re-radiation is back towards the surface, energy is transferred to the surface and the lower atmosphere. As a result, the temperature there is higher than it would be if direct heating by solar radiation were the only warming mechanism.[1] [2] This mechanism is fundamentally different from that of an actual greenhouse, which works by isolating warm air inside the structure so that heat is not lost by convection. The greenhouse effect was discovered by Joseph Fourier in 1824, first reliably experimented on by John Tyndall in 1858, and first reported quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896.[3]

If an ideal thermally conductive blackbody was the same distance from the Sun as the Earth is, it would have a temperature of about 5.3 °C. However, since the Earth reflects about 30%[4] (or 28%[5] ) of the incoming sunlight, the planet's effective temperature (the temperature of a blackbody that would emit the same amount of radiation) is about −18 or −19 °C,[6] [7] about 33°C below the actual surface temperature of about 14 °C or 15 °C.[8] The mechanism that produces this difference between the actual surface temperature and the effective temperature is due to the atmosphere and is known as the greenhouse effect. Global warming, a recent warming of the Earth's surface and lower atmosphere,[9] is believed to be the result of a strengthening of the greenhouse effect mostly due to human-produced increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases.[10]

A representation of the exchanges of energy between the source (the Sun), the Earth's surface, the Earth's atmosphere, and the ultimate sink outer space. The ability of the atmosphere to capture and recycle energy emitted by the Earth surface is the defining characteristic of the greenhouse effect.

Basic mechanism
The Earth receives energy from the Sun in the form UV, visible, and near IR radiation, most of which passes through the atmosphere without being absorbed. Of the total amount of energy available at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), about 50% is absorbed at the Earth's surface. Because it is warm, the surface radiates far IR thermal radiation that consists of wavelengths that are predominantly much longer than the wavelengths that were absorbed. Most of this thermal radiation is absorbed by the atmosphere and re-radiated both upwards and downwards; that radiated downwards is absorbed by the Earth's surface. This trapping of long-wavelength thermal radiation leads to a higher equilibrium temperature than if the atmosphere were absent. This highly simplified picture of the basic mechanism needs to be qualified in a number of ways, none of which affect the fundamental process.

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• The incoming radiation from the Sun is mostly in the form of visible light and nearby wavelengths, largely in the range 0.2–4 μm, corresponding to the Sun's radiative temperature of 6,000 K.[11] Almost half the radiation is in the form of "visible" light, which our eyes are adapted to use.[12] • About 50% of the Sun's energy is absorbed at the Earth's surface and the rest is reflected or absorbed by the atmosphere. The reflection of light back into space—largely by clouds—does not much affect the basic mechanism; this light, effectively, is lost to the system.

• The absorbed energy warms the surface. Simple presentations of the greenhouse effect, such as the idealized greenhouse model, show this heat being lost as thermal radiation. The reality is more complex: the atmosphere near the surface is largely opaque to thermal radiation (with important exceptions for "window" bands), and most heat loss from the surface is by sensible heat and latent heat transport. Radiative energy losses become increasingly important higher in the atmosphere largely because of the decreasing concentration of water vapor, an important greenhouse gas. It is more realistic to think of the greenhouse effect as applying to a "surface" in the mid-troposphere, which is effectively coupled to the surface by a lapse rate. • Within the region where radiative effects are important the description given by the idealized greenhouse model becomes realistic: The surface of the Earth, warmed to a temperature around 255 K, radiates long-wavelength, infrared heat in the range 4–100 μm.[11] At these wavelengths, greenhouse gases that were largely transparent to incoming solar radiation are more absorbent.[11] Each layer of atmosphere with greenhouses gases absorbs some of the heat being radiated upwards from lower layers. To maintain its own equilibrium, it re-radiates the absorbed heat in all directions, both upwards and downwards. This results in more warmth below, while still radiating enough heat back out into deep space from the upper layers to maintain overall thermal equilibrium. Increasing the concentration of the gases increases the amount of absorption and re-radiation, and thereby further warms the layers and ultimately the surface below.[7] • Greenhouse gases—including most diatomic gases with two different atoms (such as carbon monoxide, CO) and all gases with three or more atoms—are able to absorb and emit infrared radiation. Though more than 99% of the dry atmosphere is IR transparent (because the main constituents—N2, O2, and Ar—are not able to directly absorb or emit infrared radiation), intermolecular collisions cause the energy absorbed and emitted by the greenhouse gases to be shared with the other, non-IR-active, gases. • The simple picture assumes equilibrium. In the real world there is the diurnal cycle as well as seasonal cycles and weather. Solar heating only applies during daytime. During the night, the atmosphere cools somewhat, but not greatly, because its emissivity is low, and during the day the atmosphere warms. Diurnal temperature changes decrease with height in the atmosphere.

The solar radiation spectrum for direct light at both the top of the Earth's atmosphere and at sea level

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Greenhouse gases
By their percentage contribution to the greenhouse effect on Earth the four major gases are:[13] [14] • • • • water vapor, 36–70% carbon dioxide, 9–26% methane, 4–9% ozone, 3–7%

The major non-gas contributor to the Earth's greenhouse effect, clouds, also absorb and emit infrared radiation and thus have an effect on radiative properties of the atmosphere.[14]

Role in climate change
Strengthening of the greenhouse effect through human activities is known as the enhanced (or anthropogenic) greenhouse effect.[15] This increase in radiative forcing from human activity is attributable mainly to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.[16] CO2 is produced by fossil fuel burning and other activities such as cement production and tropical deforestation.[17] Measurements of CO2 from the Mauna Loa observatory show that concentrations have increased from about 313 ppm [18] in 1960 to about 389 ppm in 2010. The Keeling Curve of atmospheric CO2 concentrations measured at Mauna Loa The current observed amount of CO2 exceeds the geological record [19] Observatory. maxima (~300 ppm) from ice core data. The effect of combustion-produced carbon dioxide on the global climate, a special case of the greenhouse effect first described in 1896 by Svante Arrhenius, has also been called the Callendar effect. Because it is a greenhouse gas, elevated CO2 levels contribute to additional absorption and emission of thermal infrared in the atmosphere, which produce net warming. According to the latest Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations".[20] Over the past 800,000 years,[21] ice core data shows unambiguously that carbon dioxide has varied from values as low as 180 parts per million (ppm) to the pre-industrial level of 270ppm.[22] Paleoclimatologists consider variations in carbon dioxide to be a fundamental factor in controlling climate variations over this time scale.[23] [24]

Real greenhouses
The "greenhouse effect" is named by analogy to greenhouses. The greenhouse effect and a real greenhouse are similar in that they both limit the rate of thermal energy flowing out of the system, but the mechanisms by which heat is retained are different.[25] A greenhouse works primarily by preventing absorbed heat from leaving the structure through convection, i.e. sensible heat transport. The greenhouse effect heats the earth because greenhouse gases absorb outgoing radiative energy and re-emit some of it back towards earth. A greenhouse is built of any material that passes sunlight, usually glass, or plastic. It mainly heats up because the Sun warms the ground
A modern Greenhouse in RHS Wisley

Greenhouse effect inside, which then warms the air in the greenhouse. The air continues to heat because it is confined within the greenhouse, unlike the environment outside the greenhouse where warm air near the surface rises and mixes with cooler air aloft. This can be demonstrated by opening a small window near the roof of a greenhouse: the temperature will drop considerably. It has also been demonstrated experimentally (R. W. Wood, 1909) that a "greenhouse" with a cover of rock salt (which is transparent to infra red) heats up an enclosure similarly to one with a glass cover.[26] Thus greenhouses work primarily by preventing convective cooling.[27] [28] In the greenhouse effect, rather than retaining (sensible) heat by physically preventing movement of the air, greenhouse gases act to warm the Earth by re-radiating some of the energy back towards the surface. This process may exist in real greenhouses, but is comparatively unimportant there.

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Bodies other than Earth
In our solar system, Mars, Venus, and the moon Titan also exhibit greenhouse effects.[29] Titan has an anti-greenhouse effect, in that its atmosphere absorbs solar radiation but is relatively transparent to infrared radiation. Pluto also exhibits behavior superficially similar to the anti-greenhouse effect.[30] [31] A runaway greenhouse effect occurs if positive feedbacks lead to the evaporation of all greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.[32] A runaway greenhouse effect involving carbon dioxide and water vapor is thought to have occurred on Venus.[33]

Literature
• Earth Radiation Budget, http://marine.rutgers.edu/mrs/education/class/yuri/erb.html • Businger, Joost Alois; Fleagle, Robert Guthrie (1980). An introduction to atmospheric physics. International geophysics series (2nd ed.). San Diego: Academic. ISBN 0-12-260355-9. • IPCC assessment reports, see http://www.ipcc.ch/ • Henderson-Sellers, Ann; McGuffie, Kendal (2005). A climate modelling primer (3rd ed.). New York: Wiley. ISBN 0-470-85750-1. "Greenhouse effect: the effect of the atmosphere in re-reradiating longwave radiation back to the surface of the Earth. It has nothing to do with glasshouses, which trap warm air at the surface." • Idso, S.B. (1982). Carbon dioxide : friend or foe? : an inquiry into the climatic and agricultural consequences of the rapidly rising CO2 content of Earth's atmosphere. Tempe, AZ: IBR Press. OCLC 63236418. "...the phraseology is somewhat in appropriate, since CO2 does not warm the planet in a manner analogous to the way in which a greenhouse keeps its interior warm" • Kiehl, J.T., Trenberth, K. (1997). "Earth's annual mean global energy budget". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78 (2): 197–208. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<0197:EAGMEB>2.0.CO;2.

References
[1] "Annex II Glossary" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ syr/ en/ annexessglossary-e-i. html). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. . Retrieved 15 October 2010. [2] A concise description of the greenhouse effect is given in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, "What is the Greenhouse Effect?" IIPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Chapter 1 (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter1. pdf), page 115: "To balance the absorbed incoming [solar] energy, the Earth must, on average, radiate the same amount of energy back to space. Because the Earth is much colder than the Sun, it radiates at much longer wavelengths, primarily in the infrared part of the spectrum (see Figure 1). Much of this thermal radiation emitted by the land and ocean is absorbed by the atmosphere, including clouds, and reradiated back to Earth. This is called the greenhouse effect." Stephen H. Schneider, in Geosphere-biosphere Interactions and Climate, Lennart O. Bengtsson and Claus U. Hammer, eds., Cambridge University Press, 2001, ISBN 0521782384, pp. 90-91. E. Claussen, V. A. Cochran, and D. P. Davis, Climate Change: Science, Strategies, & Solutions, University of Michigan, 2001. p. 373. A. Allaby and M. Allaby, A Dictionary of Earth Sciences, Oxford University Press, 1999, ISBN 0192800795, p. 244. [3] Annual Reviews (requires registration) (http:/ / arjournals. annualreviews. org/ doi/ full/ 10. 1146/ annurev. energy. 25. 1. 441) [4] "NASA Earth Fact Sheet" (http:/ / nssdc. gsfc. nasa. gov/ planetary/ factsheet/ earthfact. html). Nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov. . Retrieved 2010-10-15.

Greenhouse effect
[5] "Introduction to Atmospheric Chemistry, by Daniel J. Jacob, Princeton University Press, 1999. Chapter 7, "The Greenhouse Effect"" (http:/ / acmg. seas. harvard. edu/ people/ faculty/ djj/ book/ bookchap7. html). Acmg.seas.harvard.edu. . Retrieved 2010-10-15. [6] "Solar Radiation and the Earth's Energy Balance" (http:/ / eesc. columbia. edu/ courses/ ees/ climate/ lectures/ radiation/ ). Eesc.columbia.edu. . Retrieved 2010-10-15. [7] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Chapter 1: Historical overview of climate change science (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter1. pdf) page 97 [8] The elusive "absolute surface air temperature," see GISS discussion (http:/ / data. giss. nasa. gov/ gistemp/ abs_temp. html) [9] Merged land air and sea surface temperature data set (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ gcag/ gcagmerged. jsp) [10] "Enhanced greenhouse effect – a hot international topic" (http:/ / www. science. org. au/ nova/ 016/ 016key. htm). Nova. Australian Academy of Science. 2008. . The enhanced greenhouse effect] [11] Mitchell, John F. B. (1989). "THE "GREENHOUSE" EFFECT AND CLIMATE CHANGE" (http:/ / astrosun2. astro. cornell. edu/ academics/ courses/ astro202/ Mitchell_GRL89. pdf). Reviews of Geophysics (American Geophysical Union) 27 (1): 115–139. doi:10.1029/RG027i001p00115. . Retrieved 2008-03-23. [12] "Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SOURCE)" (http:/ / earthobservatory. nasa. gov/ Features/ SORCE/ sorce_02. php). NASA.Gov. . Retrieved 15 October 2010. [13] "Water vapour: feedback or forcing?" (http:/ / www. realclimate. org/ index. php?p=142). RealClimate. 6 April 2005. . Retrieved 2006-05-01. [14] Kiehl, J. T.; Kevin E. Trenberth (February 1997). "Earth’s Annual Global Mean Energy Budget" (http:/ / www. atmo. arizona. edu/ students/ courselinks/ spring04/ atmo451b/ pdf/ RadiationBudget. pdf) (PDF). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78 (2): 197–208. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<0197:EAGMEB>2.0.CO;2. . Retrieved 2009-12-23. [15] "Enhanced greenhouse effect — Glossary" (http:/ / www. science. org. au/ nova/ 016/ 016glo. htm). Nova. Australian Academy of Science. 2006. . [16] "Enhanced Greenhouse Effect" (http:/ / www. ace. mmu. ac. uk/ eae/ Global_Warming/ Older/ Enhanced_Greenhouse_Effect. html). Ace.mmu.ac.uk. . Retrieved 2010-10-15. [17] IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group I Report "The Physical Science Basis" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter7. pdf) Chapter 7 [18] "Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide – Mauna Loa" (http:/ / www. esrl. noaa. gov/ gmd/ ccgg/ trends/ co2_data_mlo. html). NOAA. . [19] Hansen J. (February 2005). "A slippery slope: How much global warming constitutes “dangerous anthropogenic interference”?" (http:/ / www. springerlink. com/ content/ x283l27781675v51/ ?p=799ebc88193f4ecfa8ca76f6e28f45d7). Climatic Change 68 (333): 269–279. doi:10.1007/s10584-005-4135-0. . [20] IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Synthesis Report: Summary for Policymakers (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ syr/ ar4_syr_spm. pdf) (p. 5) [21] "Deep ice tells long climate story" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ science/ nature/ 5314592. stm). BBC News. 2006-09-04. . Retrieved 2010-05-04. [22] Hileman B (2005-11-28). "Ice Core Record Extended" (http:/ / pubs. acs. org/ cen/ news/ 83/ i48/ 8348notw1. html). Chemical & Engineering News 83 (48): 7. . [23] Bowen, Mark; Thin Ice: Unlocking the Secrets of Climate in the World's Highest Mountains; Owl Books, 2005. [24] Temperature change and carbon dioxide change (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ paleo/ globalwarming/ temperature-change. html), U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [25] Brian Shmaefsky (2004). Favorite demonstrations for college science: an NSTA Press journals collection (http:/ / books. google. com/ books?id=L4jtv2mX0iQC& pg=PA57). NSTA Press. p. 57. ISBN 9780873552424. . [26] Wood, R.W. (1909). "Note on the Theory of the Greenhouse" (http:/ / www. wmconnolley. org. uk/ sci/ wood_rw. 1909. html). Philosophical Magazine 17: 319–320. . "When exposed to sunlight the temperature rose gradually to 65 °C., the enclosure covered with the salt plate keeping a little ahead of the other because it transmitted the longer waves from the Sun, which were stopped by the glass. In order to eliminate this action the sunlight was first passed through a glass plate." "it is clear that the rock-salt plate is capable of transmitting practically all of it, while the glass plate stops it entirely. This shows us that the loss of temperature of the ground by radiation is very small in comparison to the loss by convection, in other words that we gain very little from the circumstance that the radiation is trapped.". [27] Oort, Abraham H.; Peixoto, José Pinto (1992). Physics of climate. New York: American Institute of Physics. ISBN 0-88318-711-6. "...the name water vapor-greenhouse effect is actually a misnomer since heating in the usual greenhouse is due to the reduction of convection" [28] Schroeder, Daniel V. (2000). An introduction to thermal physics. San Francisco, California: Addison-Wesley. pp. 305–7. ISBN 0-321-27779-1. "... this mechanism is called the greenhouse effect, even though most greenhouses depend primarily on a different mechanism (namely, limiting convective cooling)." [29] McKay, C.; Pollack, J.; Courtin, R. (1991). "The greenhouse and antigreenhouse effects on Titan". Science 253: 1118–21. doi:10.1126/science.11538492. PMID 11538492. [30] "Titan: Greenhouse and Anti-greenhouse :: Astrobiology Magazine - earth science - evolution distribution Origin of life universe - life beyond :: Astrobiology is study of earth" (http:/ / www. astrobio. net/ news/ modules. php?op=modload& name=News& file=article& sid=1762& mode=thread& order=0& thold=0). Astrobio.net. . Retrieved 2010-10-15. [31] "Pluto Colder Than Expected" (http:/ / www. space. com/ scienceastronomy/ 060103_pluto_cold. html). SPACE.com. 2006-01-03. . Retrieved 2010-10-15.

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[32] Kasting, James F. (1991). "Runaway and moist greenhouse atmospheres and the evolution of Earth and Venus." (http:/ / books. nap. edu/ openbook. php?record_id=1790& page=234). Planetary Sciences: American and Soviet Research/Proceedings from the U.S.-U.S.S.R. Workshop on Planetary Sciences. Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems (CETS). pp. 234–245. . Retrieved 2009. [33] Rasool, I.; De Bergh, C.; De Bergh, C. (Jun 1970). "The Runaway Greenhouse and the Accumulation of CO2 in the Venus Atmosphere" (http:/ / pubs. giss. nasa. gov/ docs/ 1970/ 1970_Rasool_DeBergh. pdf). Nature 226 (5250): 1037. doi:10.1038/2261037a0. ISSN 0028-0836. PMID 16057644. . Retrieved 02/25/2009.

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Greenhouse gas
A greenhouse gas (sometimes abbreviated GHG) is a gas in an atmosphere that absorbs and emits radiation within the thermal infrared range. This process is the fundamental cause of the greenhouse effect.[1] The primary greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone. In the Solar System, the atmospheres of Venus, Mars, and Titan also contain gases that cause greenhouse effects. Greenhouse gases greatly affect the temperature of the Earth; without them, Earth's surface would be on average about 33 °C (59 °F)[2] colder than at present.[3] [4] [5]

Simple diagram of greenhouse effect.

Since the beginning of the Industrial revolution, the burning of fossil fuels has contributed to the increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from 280ppm to 390ppm.[6] [7] Unlike other pollutants, carbon dioxide emissions do not result from inefficient combustion: CO2 is a product of ideal, stoichiometric combustion of carbon.[8] The emissions of carbon are directly proportional to energy consumption.

Greenhouse effects in Earth's atmosphere
In order, the most abundant greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere are: • • • • • • water vapor carbon dioxide methane nitrous oxide ozone chlorofluorocarbons

The contribution to the greenhouse effect by a gas is affected by both the characteristics of the gas and its abundance. For example, on a molecule-for-molecule
Modern global anthropogenic carbon emissions.

Greenhouse gas basis methane is about eighty times stronger greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide,[9] but it is present in much smaller concentrations so that its total contribution is smaller. When these gases are ranked by their contribution to the greenhouse effect, the most important are:[10]
Gas Formula Contribution (%) H2O CO2 CH4 O3 36 – 72 % 9 – 26 % 4–9% 3–7%

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Water vapor Carbon dioxide Methane Ozone

It is not possible to state that a certain gas causes an exact percentage of the greenhouse effect. This is because some of the gases absorb and emit radiation at the same frequencies as others, so that the total greenhouse effect is not simply the sum of the influence of each gas. The higher ends of the ranges quoted are for each gas alone; the lower ends account for overlaps with the other gases.[10] [11] The major non-gas contributor to the Earth's greenhouse effect, clouds, also absorb and emit infrared radiation and thus have an effect on radiative properties of the greenhouse gases.[10] [11] In addition to the main greenhouse gases listed above, other greenhouse gases include sulfur hexafluoride, hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons (see IPCC list of greenhouse gases). Some greenhouse gases are not often listed. For example, nitrogen trifluoride has a high global warming potential (GWP) but is only present in very small quantities.[12] Although contributing to many other physical and chemical reactions, the major atmospheric constituents, nitrogen (N2), oxygen (O2), and argon (Ar), are not greenhouse gases. This is because molecules containing two atoms of the same element such as N2 and O2 and monatomic molecules such as Ar have no net change in their dipole moment when they vibrate and hence are almost totally unaffected by infrared light. Although molecules containing two atoms of different elements such as carbon monoxide (CO) or hydrogen chloride (HCl) absorb IR, these molecules are short-lived in the atmosphere owing to their reactivity and solubility. As a consequence they do not contribute significantly to the greenhouse effect and are not often included when discussing greenhouse gases.

Late 19th century scientists experimentally discovered that N2 and O2 do not absorb infrared radiation (called, at that time, "dark radiation") while, at the contrary, water, as true vapour or condensed in the form of microscopic droplets suspended in clouds, CO2 and other poly-atomic gaseous molecules do absorb infrared radiation. It was recognized in the early 20th century that the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere caused the Earth's overall temperature to be higher than it would be without them. During the late 20th century, a scientific consensus has evolved that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are causing a substantial rise in global temperatures and changes to other parts of the climate system, with consequences for the environment and human health.[13]

Atmospheric absorption and scattering at different electromagnetic wavelengths. The largest absorption band of carbon dioxide is in the infrared.

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Natural and anthropogenic sources
Aside from purely human-produced synthetic halocarbons, most greenhouse gases have both natural and human-caused sources. During the pre-industrial Holocene, concentrations of existing gases were roughly constant. In the industrial era, human activities have added greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, mainly through the burning of fossil fuels and clearing of forests.[14] [15] The 2007 Fourth Assessment Report compiled by the IPCC (AR4) noted that "changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, land cover and solar radiation alter the energy balance of the climate system", and concluded that "increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations is very likely to have caused most of the increases in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century".[16] In AR4, "most of" is defined as more than 50%.

400,000 years of ice core data.

Top: Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels as measured in the atmosphere and reflected in ice cores. Bottom: The amount of net carbon increase in the atmosphere, compared to carbon emissions from burning fossil fuel.

Gas Carbon dioxide Methane Nitrous oxide CFC-12

Preindustrial level 280 ppm 700 ppb 270 ppb 0

Current level   388 ppm 1745 ppb 314 ppb 533 ppt

Increase since 1750   108 ppm 1045 ppb 44 ppb 533 ppt

Radiative forcing (W/m2) 1.46 0.48 0.15 0.17

Ice cores provide evidence for variation in greenhouse gas concentrations over the past 800,000 years. Both CO2 and CH4 vary between glacial and interglacial phases, and concentrations of these gases correlate strongly with temperature. Direct data does not exist for periods earlier than those represented in the ice core record, a record which indicates CO2 mole fractions staying within a range of between 180ppm and 280ppm throughout the last 800,000 years, until the increase of the last 250 years. However, various proxies and modeling suggests larger variations in past epochs; 500 million years ago CO2 levels were likely 10 times higher than now.[17] Indeed higher CO2 concentrations are thought to have prevailed throughout most of the Phanerozoic eon, with concentrations four

Greenhouse gas to six times current concentrations during the Mesozoic era, and ten to fifteen times current concentrations during the early Palaeozoic era until the middle of the Devonian period, about 400 Ma.[18] [19] [20] The spread of land plants is thought to have reduced CO2 concentrations during the late Devonian, and plant activities as both sources and sinks of CO2 have since been important in providing stabilising feedbacks.[21] Earlier still, a 200-million year period of intermittent, widespread glaciation extending close to the equator (Snowball Earth) appears to have been ended suddenly, about 550 Ma, by a colossal volcanic outgassing which raised the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere abruptly to 12%, about 350 times modern levels, causing extreme greenhouse conditions and carbonate deposition as limestone at the rate of about 1 mm per day.[22] This episode marked the close of the Precambrian eon, and was succeeded by the generally warmer conditions of the Phanerozoic, during which multicellular animal and plant life evolved. No volcanic carbon dioxide emission of comparable scale has occurred since. In the modern era, emissions to the atmosphere from volcanoes are only about 1% of emissions from human sources.[22] [23]

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Anthropogenic greenhouse gases
Since about 1750 human activity has increased the concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Measured atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are currently 100 ppm higher than pre-industrial levels.[24] Natural sources of carbon dioxide are more than 20 times greater than sources due to human activity,[25] but over periods longer than a few years natural sources are closely balanced by natural sinks, mainly photosynthesis of carbon compounds by plants and marine plankton. As a result of this balance, the atmospheric mole fraction of carbon dioxide remained between 260 and 280 parts per million for the 10,000 years between the end of the last glacial maximum and the start of the industrial era.[26]

Global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions broken down into 8 different sectors for the year 2000.

It is likely that anthropogenic warming, such as that due to elevated greenhouse gas levels, has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems. Warming is projected to affect various issues such as freshwater resources, industry, food and health.[27] The main sources of greenhouse gases due to human activity are:

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• burning of fossil fuels and deforestation leading to higher carbon dioxide concentrations in the air. Land use change (mainly deforestation in the tropics) account for up to one third of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions.[26] • livestock enteric fermentation and manure management,[28] paddy rice farming, land use and wetland changes, pipeline losses, and Per capita anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions by country for the year 2000 covered vented landfill emissions including land-use change. leading to higher methane atmospheric concentrations. Many of the newer style fully vented septic systems that enhance and target the fermentation process also are sources of atmospheric methane. • use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in refrigeration systems, and use of CFCs and halons in fire suppression systems and manufacturing processes. • agricultural activities, including the use of fertilizers, that lead to higher nitrous oxide (N2O) concentrations. The seven sources of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion are (with percentage contributions for 2000–2004):[29]
Seven main fossil fuel combustion sources Liquid fuels (e.g., gasoline, fuel oil) Solid fuels (e.g., coal) Gaseous fuels (e.g., natural gas) Cement production Flaring gas industrially and at wells Non-fuel hydrocarbons "International bunker fuels" of transport not included in national inventories Contribution (%) 36 % 35 % 20 % 3% <1% <1% 4%

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ranks the major greenhouse gas contributing end-user sectors in the following order: industrial, transportation, residential, commercial and agricultural.[30] Major sources of an individual's greenhouse gas include home heating and cooling, electricity consumption, and transportation. Corresponding conservation measures are improving home building insulation, installing geothermal heat pumps and compact fluorescent lamps, and choosing energy-efficient vehicles. Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and three groups of fluorinated gases (sulfur hexafluoride, HFCs, and PFCs) are the major greenhouse gases and the subject of the Kyoto Protocol, which came into force in 2005.[31] Although CFCs are greenhouse gases, they are regulated by the Montreal Protocol, which was motivated by CFCs' contribution to ozone depletion rather than by their contribution to global warming. Note that ozone depletion has only a minor role in greenhouse warming though the two processes often are confused in the media. On December 7, 2009, the US Environmental Protection Agency released its final findings on greenhouse gases, declaring that "greenhouse gases (GHGs) threaten the public health and welfare of the American people". The finding applied to the same "six key well-mixed greenhouse gases" named in the Kyoto Protocol: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride.[32] [33]

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Role of water vapor
Water vapor accounts for the largest percentage of the greenhouse effect, between 36% and 66% for clear sky conditions and between 66% and 85% when including clouds.[11] Water vapor concentrations fluctuate regionally, but human activity does not significantly affect water vapor concentrations except at local scales, such as near irrigated fields. The atmospheric concentration of vapor is highly variable, from less than 0.01% in extremely cold regions up to 2% in warm, humid regions.[34]

Increasing water vapor in the stratosphere at Boulder, Colorado.

The average residence time of a water molecule in the atmosphere is only about nine days, compared to years or centuries for other greenhouse gases such as CH4 and CO2. Thus, water vapor responds to and amplifies effects of the other greenhouse gases. The Clausius-Clapeyron relation establishes that air can hold more water vapor per unit volume when it warms. This and other basic principles indicate that warming associated with increased concentrations of the other greenhouse gases also will increase the concentration of water vapor. Because water vapor is a greenhouse gas this results in further warming, a "positive feedback" that amplifies the original warming. This positive feedback does not result in runaway global warming because it is offset by other processes which stabilize average global temperatures.[35]

Greenhouse gas emissions
The two primary sources of CO2 emissions are from burning coal used for electricity generation and petroleum used for motor transport. Measurements from Antarctic ice cores show that before industrial emissions started atmospheric CO2 mole fractions were about 280 parts per million (ppm), and stayed between 260 and 280 during the preceding ten thousand years.[36] Carbon dioxide mole fractions in the atmosphere have gone up by approximately 35 percent since the 1900s, rising from 280 parts per million by volume to 387 parts per million in 2009. One study using evidence from stomata of fossilized leaves suggests greater variability, with carbon dioxide mole fractions above Recent year-to-year increase of atmospheric CO2. 300 ppm during the period seven to ten thousand years ago,[37] though others have argued that these findings more likely reflect calibration or contamination problems rather than actual CO2 variability.[38] [39] Because of the way air is trapped in ice (pores in the ice close off slowly to form bubbles deep within the firn) and the time period represented in each ice sample analyzed, these figures represent averages of atmospheric concentrations of up to a few centuries rather than annual or decadal levels. Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the concentrations of most of the greenhouse gases have increased. For example, the mole fraction of carbon dioxide has increased by about 36% to 380 ppm, or 100 ppm over modern pre-industrial levels. The first 50 ppm increase took place in about 200 years, from the start of the Industrial

Greenhouse gas Revolution to around 1973; however the next 50 ppm increase took place in about 33 years, from 1973 to 2006.[40] Recent data also shows that the concentration is increasing at a higher rate. In the 1960s, the average annual increase was only 37% of what it was in 2000 through 2007.[41] The other greenhouse gases produced from human activity show similar increases in both amount and rate of increase. Many observations are available online in a variety of Atmospheric Chemistry Observational Databases.

91

Relevant to radiative forcing
Gas Current (1998) Amount by volume Increase Increase (absolute, ppm) (relative, %) over pre-industrial (1750) over pre-industrial (1750) 87 ppm (105 ppm, 2007.01) 1045 ppb 44 ppb 31 % (38 %, 2007.01) 150 % 16 % Radiative forcing (W/m2) 1.46 (~1.53, 2007.01) 0.48 0.15

Carbon dioxide

365 ppm (383 ppm, 2007.01) 1745 ppb 314 ppb

Methane Nitrous oxide

Relevant to both radiative forcing and ozone depletion; all of the following have no natural sources and hence zero amounts pre-industrial
Gas Current (1998) Amount by volume Radiative forcing (W/m2) 0.07 0.17 0.03 0.01 0.03

CFC-11 CFC-12 CFC-113 Carbon tetrachloride HCFC-22

268 ppt 533 ppt 84 ppt 102 ppt 69 ppt

(Source: IPCC radiative forcing report 1994 updated (to 1998) by IPCC TAR table 6.1[42] [43] ).

Greenhouse gas

92

Regional and national attribution of emissions
There are several different ways of measuring GHG emissions (see World Bank (2010, p. 362) for a table of national emissions data).[44] Some variables that reported[45] include: have been

• Definition of measurement boundaries. Emissions can be attributed geographically, to the area where they were emitted (the territory principle) or by the activity principle to the territory that caused the emissions to be produced. These two principles would result in Major greenhouse gas trends. different totals when measuring for example the importation of electricity from one country to another or the emissions at an international airport. • The time horizon of different GHGs. Contribution of a given GHG is reported as a CO2 equivalent; the calculation to determine this takes into account how long that gas remains in the atmosphere. This is not always known accurately and calculations must be regularly updated to take into account new information. • What sectors are included in the calculation (e.g. energy industries, industrical processes, agriculture etc.). There is often a conflict between transparency and availability of data. • The measurement protocol itself. This may be via direct measurement or estimation; the four main methods are the emission factor-based method, the mass balance method, the predictive emissions monitoring system and the continuing emissions monitoring systems. The methods differ in accuracy, but also in cost and usability. The different measures are sometimes used by different countries in asserting various policy/ethical positions to do with climate change (Banuri et al., 1996, p. 94).[46] This use of different measures leads to a lack of comparability, which is problematic when monitoring progress towards targets. There are arguments for the adoption of a common measurement tool, or at least the development of communication between different tools.[45] Emissions may be measured over long time periods. This measurement type is called historical or cumulative emissions. Cumulative emissions give some indication of who is responsible for the build-up in the atmospheric concentration of GHGs (IEA, 2007, p. 199).[47] Emissions may also be measured across shorter time periods. Emissions changes may, for example, be measured against a base year of 1990. 1990 was used in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as the base year for emissions, and is also used in the Kyoto Protocol (some gases are also measured from the year 1995) (Grubb, 2003, pp. 146, 149).[48] A country's emissions may also be reported as a proportion of global emissions for a particular year. Another measurement is of per capita emissions. This divides a country's total annual emissions by its mid-year population (World Bank, 2010, p. 370). Per capita emissions may be based on historical or annual emissions (Banuri et al., 1996, pp. 106–107).

Greenhouse gas Greenhouse gas intensity and land-use change The figure opposite is based on data from the World Resources Institute, and shows a measurement of GHG emissions for the year 2000 according to greenhouse gas intensity and land-use change. Herzog et al. (2006, p. 3) defined greenhouse gas intensity as GHG emissions divided by economic output.[49] GHG intensities are subject to uncertainty over whether they are calculated using market Greenhouse gas intensity in 2000 including land-use change. exchange rates (MER) or purchasing power parity (PPP) (Banuri et al., 1996, p. 96).[46] Calculations based on MER suggest large differences in intensities between developed and developing countries, whereas calculations based on PPP show smaller differences. Land-use change, e.g., the clearing of forests for agricultural use, can affect the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere by altering how much carbon flows out of the atmosphere into carbon sinks.[50] Accounting for land-use change can be understood as an attempt to measure “net” emissions, i.e., gross emissions from all GHG sources minus the removal of emissions from the atmosphere by carbon sinks (Banuri et al., 1996, pp. 92–93). There are substantial uncertainties in the measurement of net carbon emissions.[51] Additionally, there is controversy over how carbon sinks should be allocated between different regions and over time (Banuri et al., 1996, p. 93). For instance, concentrating on more recent changes in carbon sinks is likely to favour those regions that have deforested earlier, e.g., Europe. Cumulative and historical emissions

93

Top-5 historic CO2 contributors by region over the years 1800 to 1988 (in %)
Region Industrial Total CO2 CO2 33.2 26.1 14.1 5.5 5.5 29.7 16.6 12.5 6.0 4.8

OECD North America OECD Europe Former USSR China Eastern Europe

The table above is based on Banuri et al. (1996, p. 94).[46] Overall, developed countries accounted for 83.8% of industrial CO2 emissions over this time period, and 67.8% of total CO2 emissions. Developing countries accounted for industrial CO2 emissions of 16.2% over this time period, and 32.2% of total CO2 emissions. The estimate of total CO2 emissions includes biotic carbon emissions, mainly from deforestation. Banuri et al. (1996, p. 94) calculated per capita cumulative emissions based on then-current population. The ratio in per capita emissions between industrialized countires and developing countries was estimated to be more than 10 to 1. Including biotic emissions brings about the same controversy mentioned earlier regarding carbon sinks and land-use change (Banuri et al., 1996, pp. 93–94). The actual calculation of net emissions is very complex, and is affected by how carbon sinks are allocated between regions (an equity consideration), and the dynamics of the climate system.

Greenhouse gas The International Energy Agency (IEA, 2007, p. 201) compared cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions for several countries and regions.[47] Over the time period 1900-2005, the US accounted for 30% of total cumulative emissions; the EU, 23%; China, 8%; Japan, 4%; and India, 2%. The rest of the world accounted for 33% of global, cumulative, energy-related CO2 emissions. Changes since a particular base year In total, Annex I Parties managed a cut of 3.3% in GHG emissions between 1990 and 2004 (UNFCCC, 2007, p. 11).[52] Annex I Parties are those countries listed in Annex I of the UNFCCC, and are the industrialized countries. For non-Annex I Parties, emissions in several large developing countries and fast growing economies (China, India, Thailand, Indonesia, Egypt, and Iran) GHG emissions have increased rapidly over this period (PBL, 2009).[53] The sharp acceleration in CO2 emissions since 2000 to more than a 3% increase per year (more than 2 ppm per year) from 1.1% per year during the 1990s is attributable to the lapse of formerly declining trends in carbon intensity of both developing and developed nations. China was responsible for most of global growth in emissions during this period. Localised plummeting emissions associated with the collapse of the Soviet Union have been followed by slow emissions growth in this region due to more efficient energy use, made necessary by the increasing proportion of it that is exported.[29] In comparison, methane has not increased appreciably, and N2O by 0.25% y−1. Annual and per capita emissions At the present time, total annual emissions of GHGs are rising (Rogner et al., 2007).[54] Between the period 1970 to 2004, emissions increased at an average rate of 1.6% per year, with CO2 emissions from the use of fossil fuels growing at a rate of 1.9% per year. Today, the stock of carbon in the atmosphere increases by more than 3 Per capita responsibility for current anthropogenic atmospheric CO2. million tonnes per annum (0.04%) compared with the existing stock. This increase is the result of human activities by burning fossil fuels, deforestation and forest degradation in tropical and boreal regions.[55] Per capita emissions in the industrialized countries are typically as much as ten times the average in developing countries (Grubb, 2003, p. 144).[48] Due to China's fast economic development, its per capita emissions are quickly approaching the levels of those in the Annex I group of the Kyoto Protocol (PBL, 2009).[56] Other countries with fast growing emissions are South Korea, Iran, and Australia. On the other hand, per capita emissions of the EU-15 and the USA are gradually decreasing over time. Emissions in Russia and the Ukraine have decreased fastest since 1990 due to economic restructuring in these countries (Carbon Trust, 2009, p. 24).[57] Energy statistics for fast growing economies are less accurate than those for the industrialized countries. For China's annual emissions in 2008, PBL (2008) estimated an uncertainty range of about 10%.

94

Greenhouse gas Top emitters In 2005, the world's top-20 emitters comprised 80% of total GHG emissions (PBL, 2010. See notes for the following table).[58] Tabulated below are the top-5 emitters for the year 2005 (MNP, 2007).[59] The second column is the country's or region's share of the global total of annual emissions. The third column is the country's or region's average annual per capita emissions, in tonnes of GHG per head of population:

95

Top-5 emitters for the year 2005
Country or region % of global total annual emissions Tonnes of GHG per capita 24.1 12.9 10.6 5.8 2.1

United Statesa Indonesiac European Union-27a Chinab India Table footnotes:

16 % 6% 11 % 17 % 5%

• •

These values are for the GHG emissions from fossil fuel use and cement production. Calculations are for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and gases containing fluorine (the F-gases HFCs, PFCs and SF6). These estimates are subject to large uncertainties regarding CO2 emissions from deforestation; and the per country emissions of other GHGs (e.g., methane). There are also other large uncertainties which mean that small differences between countries are not significant. CO2 emissions from the decay of remaining biomass after biomass burning/deforestation are not included.

• • •

a b c

Industrialised countries: official country data reported to UNFCCC. Excluding underground fires. Including an estimate of 2000 million tonnes CO2 from peat fires and decomposition of peat soils after draining. However, the uncertainty

range is very large.

Embedded emissions One way of attributing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is to measure the embedded emissions (also referred to as "embodied emissions") of goods that are being consumed. Emissions are usually measured according to production, rather than consumption (Helm et al., 2007, p. 3).[60] Under a production-based accounting of emissions, embedded emissions on imported goods are attributed to the exporting, rather than the importing, country. Under a consumption-based accounting of emissions, embedded emissions on imported goods are attributed to the importing country, rather than the exporting, country. Davis and Caldeira (2010, p. 4) found that a substantial proportion of CO2 emissions are traded internationally.[61] The net effect of trade was to export emissions from China and other emerging markets to consumers in the US, Japan, and Western Europe. Based on annual emissions data from the year 2004, and on a per-capita consumption basis, the top-5 emitting countries were found to be (in tCO2 per person, per year): Luxembourg (34.7), the US (22.0), Singapore (20.2), Australia (16.7), and Canada (16.6) (Davis and Caldeira, 2010, p. 5).

Greenhouse gas Effect of policy Rogner et al. (2007) assessed the effectiveness of policies to reduce emissions (mitigation of climate change).[54] They concluded that mitigation policies undertaken by UNFCCC Parties were inadequate to reverse the trend of increasing GHG emissions. The impacts of population growth, economic development, technological investment, and consumption had overwhelmed improvements in energy intensities and efforts to decarbonize (energy intensity is a country's total primary energy supply (TPES) per unit of GDP (Rogner et al., 2007).[62] TPES is a measure of commercial energy consumption (World Bank, 2010, p. 371)).[44] Projections Based on then-current energy policies, Rogner et al. (2007) projected that energy-related CO2 emissions in 2030 would be 40-110% higher than in 2000.[54] Two-thirds of this increase was projected to come from non-Annex I countries. Per capita emissions in Annex I countries were still projected to remain substantially higher than per capita emissions in non-Annex I countries. Projections consistently showed a 25-90% increase in the Kyoto gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride) compared to 2000. IEA (2007, p. 199) estimated future cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions for several countries.[47] Their reference scenario projected cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions between the years 1900 and 2030. In this scenario, China’s share of cumulative emissions rises to 16%, approaching that of the United States (25%) and the European Union (18%). India’s cumulative emissions (4%) approach those of Japan (4%).

96

Relative CO2 emission from various fuels
One liter of gasoline, when used as a fuel, produces about 2.32 kg (19.4 lb/US gallon) of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas.[63] [64]

Mass of carbon dioxide emitted per quantity of energy for various fuels[65]
Fuel name CO2 CO2 emitted emitted (lbs/106 Btu) (g/106 J) 117 139 139 153 156 159 161 189 195 205 213 215 225 227 50.30 59.76 59.76 65.78 67.07 68.36 69.22 81.26 83.83 88.13 91.57 92.43 96.73 97.59

Natural gas Liquefied petroleum gas Propane Aviation gasoline Automobile gasoline Kerosene Fuel oil Tires/tire derived fuel Wood and wood waste Coal (bituminous) Coal (subbituminous) Coal (lignite) Petroleum coke Coal (anthracite)

Greenhouse gas

97

Removal from the atmosphere and global warming potential
Natural processes
Greenhouse gases can be removed from the atmosphere by various processes, as a consequence of: • a physical change (condensation and precipitation remove water vapor from the atmosphere). • a chemical reactions within the atmosphere. For example, methane is oxidized by reaction with naturally occurring hydroxyl radical, OH· and degraded to CO2 and water vapor (CO2 from the oxidation of methane is not included in the methane Global warming potential). Other chemical reactions include solution and solid phase chemistry occurring in atmospheric aerosols. • a physical exchange between the atmosphere and the other compartments of the planet. An example is the mixing of atmospheric gases into the oceans. • a chemical change at the interface between the atmosphere and the other compartments of the planet. This is the case for CO2, which is reduced by photosynthesis of plants, and which, after dissolving in the oceans, reacts to form carbonic acid and bicarbonate and carbonate ions (see ocean acidification). • a photochemical change. Halocarbons are dissociated by UV light releasing Cl· and F· as free radicals in the stratosphere with harmful effects on ozone (halocarbons are generally too stable to disappear by chemical reaction in the atmosphere).

Atmospheric lifetime
Aside from water vapor, which has a residence time of about nine days,[66] major greenhouse gases are well-mixed, and take many years to leave the atmosphere.[67] Although it is not easy to know with precision how long it takes greenhouse gases to leave the atmosphere, there are estimates for the principal greenhouse gases. Jacob (1999)[68] defines the lifetime of an atmospheric species X in a one-box model as the average time that a molecule of X remains in the box. Mathematically can be defined as the ratio of the mass (in kg) of X in the box to its removal rate, which is the sum of the flow of X out of the box ( X( ) (all in kg/sec):
[68]

), chemical loss of X (

), and deposition of

The atmospheric lifetime of a species therefore measures the time required to restore equilibrium following an increase in its concentration in the atmosphere. Individual atoms or molecules may be lost or deposited to sinks such as the soil, the oceans and other waters, or vegetation and other biological systems, reducing the excess to background concentrations. The average time taken to achieve this is the mean lifetime. The atmospheric lifetime of CO2 is often incorrectly stated to be only a few years because that is the average time for any CO2 molecule to stay in the atmosphere before being removed by mixing into the ocean, photosynthesis, or other processes. However, this ignores the balancing fluxes of CO2 into the atmosphere from the other reservoirs. It is the net concentration changes of the various greenhouse gases by all sources and sinks that determines atmospheric lifetime, not just the removal processes.

Global warming potential
The global warming potential (GWP) depends on both the efficiency of the molecule as a greenhouse gas and its atmospheric lifetime. GWP is measured relative to the same mass of CO2 and evaluated for a specific timescale. Thus, if a gas has a high radiative forcing but also a short lifetime, it will have a large GWP on a 20 year scale but a small one on a 100 year scale. Conversely, if a molecule has a longer atmospheric lifetime than CO2 its GWP will increase with the timescale considered. Carbon dioxide has a variable atmospheric lifetime, and cannot be specified precisely.[69] Recent work indicates that recovery from a large input of atmospheric CO2 from burning fossil fuels will result in an effective lifetime of tens of thousands of years.[70] [71] Carbon dioxide is defined to have a GWP of 1 over all time periods.

Greenhouse gas Methane has an atmospheric lifetime of 12 ± 3 years and a GWP of 72 over 20 years, 25 over 100 years and 7.6 over 500 years. The decrease in GWP at longer times is because methane is degraded to water and CO2 through chemical reactions in the atmosphere. Examples of the atmospheric lifetime and GWP relative to CO2 for several greenhouse gases are given in the following table:[72]

98

Atmospheric lifetime and GWP relative to CO2 at different time horizon for various greenhouse gases.
Gas name Chemical formula Carbon dioxide Methane Nitrous oxide CFC-12 HCFC-22 Tetrafluoromethane Hexafluoroethane Sulphur hexafluoride Nitrogen trifluoride CO2 CH4 N2O CCl2F2 CHClF2 CF4 C2F6 SF6 NF3 Lifetime (years) See above 12 114 100 12 50 000 10 000 3 200 740 Global warming potential (GWP) for given time horizon 20-yr 1 72 289 11 000 5 160 5 210 8 630 16 300 12 300 100-yr 1 25 298 10 900 1 810 7 390 12 200 22 800 17 200 500-yr 1 7.6 153 5 200 549 11 200 18 200 32 600 20 700

The use of CFC-12 (except some essential uses) has been phased out due to its ozone depleting properties.[73] The phasing-out of less active HCFC-compounds will be completed in 2030.[74]

Airborne fraction
Airborne fraction (AF) is the proportion of an emission (e.g. CO2) remaining in the atmosphere after a specified time. Canadell (2007)[75] define the annual AF as the ratio of the atmospheric CO2 increase in a given year to that year’s total emissions, and calculate that of the average 9.1 PgC y−1 of total anthropogenic emissions from 2000 to 2006, the AF was 0.45. For CO2 the AF over the last 50 years (1956–2006) has been increasing at 0.25 ± 0.21%/year.[75]

Negative emissions
There exists a number of technologies which produce negative emissions of greenhouse gases. Most widely analysed are those which remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, either to geologic formations such as bio-energy with carbon capture and storage[76] [77] [78] and carbon dioxide air capture,[78] or to the soil as in the case with biochar.[78] It has been pointed out by the IPCC, that many long-term climate scenario models require large scale manmade negative emissions in order to avoid serious climate change.[79]

Greenhouse gas

99

Related effects
Carbon monoxide has an indirect radiative effect by elevating concentrations of methane and tropospheric ozone through scavenging of atmospheric constituents (e.g., the hydroxyl radical, OH) that would otherwise destroy them. Carbon monoxide is created when carbon-containing fuels are burned incompletely. Through natural processes in the atmosphere, it is eventually oxidized to carbon dioxide. Carbon monoxide has an atmospheric lifetime of only a few months[80] and as a consequence is spatially more variable than longer-lived gases. Another potentially important indirect effect comes from methane, which in addition to its direct radiative impact also contributes to ozone formation. Shindell et al. (2005)[81] argue that the contribution to climate change from methane is at least double previous estimates as a result of this effect.[82]
MOPITT 2000 global carbon monoxide.

Notes
[1] "IPCC AR4 SYR Appendix Glossary" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ syr/ ar4_syr_appendix. pdf) (PDF). . Retrieved 14 December 2008. [2] Note that the greenhouse effect produces a temperature increase of about 33 °C (59 °F) with respect to black body predictions and not a surface temperature of 33 °C (91 °F) which is 32 °F higher. The average surface temperature is about 14 °C (57 °F). [3] Karl TR, Trenberth KE (2003). "Modern Global Climate Change" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 302/ 5651/ 1719). Science 302 (5651): 1719–23. doi:10.1126/science.1090228. PMID 14657489. . [4] Le Treut H, Somerville R, Cubasch U, Ding Y, Mauritzen C, Mokssit A, Peterson T and Prather M (2007) (PDF). Historical Overview of Climate Change Science In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M and Miller HL, editors) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter1. pdf). Cambridge University Press. . Retrieved 14 December 2008. [5] "NASA Science Mission Directorate article on the water cycle" (http:/ / nasascience. nasa. gov/ earth-science/ oceanography/ ocean-earth-system/ ocean-water-cycle). Nasascience.nasa.gov. . Retrieved 2010-10-16. [6] Frequently Asked Global Change Questions (http:/ / cdiac. ornl. gov/ pns/ faq. html), Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center [7] http:/ / www. esrl. noaa. gov/ gmd/ ccgg/ trends/ [8] [Lindeburgh, Michael R., (2006). Mechanical Engineering Reference Manual for the PE Exam. Professional Publications, Inc., Belmont, CA. ISBN 978-1-59126-049-3.] [9] Houghton, John (4 May 2005). "Global warming" (http:/ / stacks. iop. org/ RoPP/ 68/ 1343). Reports on Progress in Physics (Institute of Physics) 68: 1362. doi:10.1088/0034-4885/68/6/R02. . [10] Kiehl, J. T.; Kevin E. Trenberth (1997). "Earth’s Annual Global Mean Energy Budget" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20060330013311/ http:/ / www. atmo. arizona. edu/ students/ courselinks/ spring04/ atmo451b/ pdf/ RadiationBudget. pdf) (PDF). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78 (2): 197–208. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<0197:EAGMEB>2.0.CO;2. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. atmo. arizona. edu/ students/ courselinks/ spring04/ atmo451b/ pdf/ RadiationBudget. pdf) on 30 March 2006. . Retrieved 1 May 2006. [11] "Water vapour: feedback or forcing?" (http:/ / www. realclimate. org/ index. php?p=142). RealClimate. 6 April 2005. . Retrieved 1 May 2006. [12] Prather, Michael J.; J Hsu (2008). "NF3, the greenhouse gas missing from Kyoto". Geophysical Research Letters 35: L12810. Bibcode 2008GeoRL..3512810P. doi:10.1029/2008GL034542. [13] Opposing Viewpoints Resource Center. Detroit: Thomson Gale, 2005. From Opposing Viewpoints Resource Center. [14] "Chapter 1 Historical Overview of Climate Change Science" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter1. pdf) (PDF). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 5 February 2007. . Retrieved 25 April 2008.

Greenhouse gas
[15] "Chapter 3, IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, 2000" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ Climate/ ipcc/ emission/ 049. htm). Grida.no. . Retrieved 2010-10-16. [16] "AR4 SYR SPM page 5" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ syr/ ar4_syr_spm. pdf) (PDF). . Retrieved 2010-10-16. [17] Image:Phanerozoic Carbon Dioxide.png [18] Berner, Robert A. (1994). "GEOCARB II: a revised model of atmospheric CO2 over Phanerozoic time" (http:/ / earth. geology. yale. edu/ ~ajs/ 1994/ 01. 1994. 02Berner. pdf). American Journal of Science 294: 56–91. doi:10.2475/ajs.294.1.56. ISSN 0002-9599. . [19] Royer, DL; RA Berner and DJ Beerling (2001). "Phanerozoic atmospheric CO2 change: evaluating geochemical and paleobiological approaches". Earth-Science Reviews 54: 349–92. Bibcode 2001ESRv...54..349R. doi:10.1016/S0012-8252(00)00042-8. [20] Berner, Robert A.; Kothavala, Zavareth (2001). "GEOCARB III: a revised model of atmospheric CO2 over Phanerozoic time" (http:/ / www. geology. yale. edu/ ~ajs/ 2001/ Feb/ qn020100182. pdf). American Journal of Science 301 (2): 182–204. doi:10.2475/ajs.301.2.182. . [21] Beerling, DJ; Berner, RA (2005). "Feedbacks and the co-evolution of plants and atmospheric CO2". Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 102 (5): 1302–5. doi:10.1073/pnas.0408724102. PMC 547859. PMID 15668402. [22] Hoffmann, PF; AJ Kaufman, GP Halverson, DP Schrag (1998). "A neoproterozoic snowball earth" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ full/ 281/ 5381/ 1342). Science 281 (5381): 1342–6. doi:10.1126/science.281.5381.1342. PMID 9721097. . [23] Gerlach, TM (1991). "Present-day CO2 emissions from volcanoes". Transactions of the American Geophysical Union 72: 249–55. Bibcode 1991EOSTr..72..249.. doi:10.1029/90EO10192. [24] "Climate Change 2001: Working Group I: The Scientific Basis: figure 6-6" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ fig6-6. htm). . Retrieved 1 May 2006. [25] "The present carbon cycle - Climate Change" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ vital/ 13. htm). Grida.no. . Retrieved 2010-10-16. [26] IPCC; Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.) (2007). [PDF 7.83 MB "Chapter 7. Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry"]. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-88009-1. PDF 7.83 MB. Retrieved 13 May 2008. [27] AR4 WG2 SPM (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg2/ ar4-wg2-spm. pdf) pp. 9,11 [28] H. Steinfeld, P. Gerber, T. Wassenaar, V. Castel, M. Rosales, C. de Haan (2006) Livestock’s long shadow. Environmental issues and options. (http:/ / www. fao. org/ docrep/ 010/ a0701e/ a0701e00. htm) FAO Livestock, Environment and Development (LEAD) Initiative. [29] Raupach, M.R. et al. (2007). "Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions" (http:/ / www. pnas. org/ cgi/ reprint/ 0700609104v1. pdf). Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 104 (24): 10288–93. doi:10.1073/pnas.0700609104. PMC 1876160. PMID 17519334. . [30] "U.S. Greenhouse Gas Inventory - U.S. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Reports|Climate Change - Greenhouse Gas Emissions|U.S. EPA" (http:/ / epa. gov/ climatechange/ emissions/ usinventoryreport. html). Epa.gov. 2006-06-28. . Retrieved 2010-10-16. [31] Lerner & K. Lee Lerner, Brenda Wilmoth (2006). "Environmental issues: essential primary sources." (http:/ / catalog. loc. gov/ cgi-bin/ Pwebrecon. cgi?v3=1& DB=local& CMD=010a+ 2006000857& CNT=10+ records+ per+ page). Thomson Gale. . Retrieved 11 September 2006. [32] United States Environmental Protection Agency (7 December 2009). "EPA: Greenhouse Gases Threaten Public Health and the Environment / Science overwhelmingly shows greenhouse gas concentrations at unprecedented levels due to human activity" (http:/ / yosemite. epa. gov/ opa/ admpress. nsf/ d0cf6618525a9efb85257359003fb69d/ 08d11a451131bca585257685005bf252!OpenDocument). Press release. . Retrieved 10 December 2009. [33] "Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under the Clean Air Act" (http:/ / www. epa. gov/ climatechange/ endangerment. html). Climate Change - Regulatory Initiatives. United States Environmental Protection Agency. 7 December 2009. . Retrieved 10 December 2009. [34] Evans, Kimberly Masters (2005). "The greenhouse effect and climate change". The environment: a revolution in attitudes. Detroit: Thomson Gale. ISBN 0-7876-9082-1. [35] doi: 10.1146/annurev.energy.25.1.441 This citation will be automatically completed in the next few minutes. You can jump the queue or expand by hand (http:/ / en. wikipedia. org/ wiki/ Template:cite_doi/ _10. 1146. 2fannurev. energy. 25. 1. 441?preload=Template:Cite_doi/ preload& editintro=Template:Cite_doi/ editintro& action=edit) [36] Flückiger, Jacqueline (2002). "High-resolution Holocene N2O ice core record and its relationship with CH4 and CO2". Global Biogeochemical Cycles 16: 1010. Bibcode 2002GBioC..16a..10F. doi:10.1029/2001GB001417. [37] Friederike Wagner, Bent Aaby and Henk Visscher (2002). "Rapid atmospheric CO2 changes associated with the 8,200-years-B.P. cooling event". Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 99 (19): 12011–4. doi:10.1073/pnas.182420699. PMC 129389. PMID 12202744. [38] Andreas Indermühle, Bernhard Stauffer, Thomas F. Stocker (1999). "Early Holocene Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations". Science 286 (5446): 1815. doi:10.1126/science.286.5446.1815a. "Early Holocene Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ full/ 286/ 5446/ 1815a). Science. . Retrieved 26 May 2005. [39] H.J. Smith, M Wahlen and D. Mastroianni (1997). "The CO2 concentration of air trapped in GISP2 ice from the Last Glacial Maximum-Holocene transition". Geophysical Research Letters 24 (1): 1–4. Bibcode 1997GeoRL..24....1S. doi:10.1029/96GL03700. [40] "Monthly Average Carbon Dioxide Concentration, Mauna Loa Observatory" (http:/ / cdiac. ornl. gov/ trends/ co2/ graphics/ mlo145e_thrudc04. pdf) (PDF). Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (http:/ / cdiac. ornl. gov/ ). 2005. . Retrieved 14 December 2008. [41] Dr. Pieter Tans (3 May 2008) "Annual CO2 mole fraction increase (ppm)" for 1959–2007 (ftp:/ / ftp. cmdl. noaa. gov/ ccg/ co2/ trends/ co2_gr_mlo. txt) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory, Global Monitoring Division (

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additional details (http:/ / www. esrl. noaa. gov/ gmd/ ccgg/ trends/ ); see also K.A. Masarie, P.P. Tans (1995). "Extension and integration of atmospheric carbon dioxide data into a globally consistent measurement record". J. Geophys. Research 100: 11593–610. Bibcode 1995JGR...10011593M. doi:10.1029/95JD00859. [42] "Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 221. htm). Grida.no. . Retrieved 2010-10-16. [43] "Current Greenhouse Gas Concentrations" (http:/ / cdiac. esd. ornl. gov/ pns/ current_ghg. html). Cdiac.esd.ornl.gov. . Retrieved 2010-10-16. [44] World Bank (2010). World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change (http:/ / go. worldbank. org/ BKLQ9DSDU0). The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433. doi:10.1596/978-0-8213-7987-5. ISBN 9780821379875. . Retrieved 2010-04-06. [45] Bader, N. and R. Bleichwitz (2009) “Measuring Urban Greenhouse Gas Emissions: The Challenge of Comparability”. S.A.P.I.EN.S. 2 (3) (http:/ / sapiens. revues. org/ index854. html) [46] Banuri, T. et al. (1996) (PDF). Equity and Social Considerations. In: Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (J.P. Bruce et al. Eds.) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ ipccreports/ sar/ wg_III/ ipcc_sar_wg_III_full_report. pdf). This version: Printed by Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. PDF version: IPCC website. doi:10.2277/0521568544. ISBN 9780521568548. . [47] IEA (2007). World Energy Outlook 2007 Edition- China and India Insights (http:/ / www. iea. org/ publications/ free_new_Desc. asp?PUBS_ID=1927). International Energy Agency (IEA), Head of Communication and Information Office, 9 rue de la Fédération, 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France. p. 600. ISBN 9789264027305. . Retrieved 2010-05-04. [48] Grubb, M. (July–September 2003). "The Economics of the Kyoto Protocol" (http:/ / www. econ. cam. ac. uk/ rstaff/ grubb/ publications/ J36. pdf). World Economics 4 (3): 143–189. . Retrieved 2010-03-25. [49] Herzog, T., et al. (November 2006). Yamashita, M.B.. ed (PDF). Target: intensity - an analysis of greenhouse gas intensity targets (http:/ / pdf. wri. org/ target_intensity. pdf). World Resources Institute. ISBN 1569736383. . Retrieved 2011-04-11. [50] IPCC (2007). "Annex I: Glossary J-P" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg3/ en/ annex1sglossary-j-p. html). In B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 9780521880114. . Retrieved 2011-04-11. [51] Markandya, A. et al. (2001). "7.3.5 Cost Implications of Alternative GHG Emission Reduction Options and Carbon Sinks" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg3/ 293. htm). In B. Metz et al.. Costing Methodologies. Climate Change 2001: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: GRID-Arendal website. doi:10.2277/0521015022. ISBN 9780521015028. . Retrieved 2011-04-11. [52] UNFCCC (19 November 2007). "Compilation and synthesis of fourth national communications. Executive summary. Note by the secretariat. Document code: FCCC/SBI/2007/INF.6" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ documentation/ documents/ advanced_search/ items/ 3594. php?rec=j& priref=600004368#beg). United Nations Office at Geneva, Switzerland. . Retrieved 2010-05-17. [53] PBL (October 16, 2009). "Industrialised countries will collectively meet 2010 Kyoto target" (http:/ / www. pbl. nl/ en/ dossiers/ COP13Bali/ moreinfo/ Industrialised-countries-will-collectively-meet-2010-Kyoto-target. html). Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) website. . Retrieved 2010-04-03. [54] Rogner, H.-H., D. Zhou, R. Bradley. P. Crabbé, O. Edenhofer, B.Hare, L. Kuijpers, M. Yamaguchi (2007). "Executive Summary" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg3/ en/ ch1s1-es. html). In B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer. Introduction. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 9780521880114. . Retrieved 2010-05-05. [55] Târziu DR, Păcurar VD (Feb 2011). "Forest, climate and energy" (http:/ / www. revistapadurilor. ro/ index. php?section=Article& ID=16720). Revista pădurilor 125 (1): 34–40. . Retrieved 2011-03-14. [56] PBL (25 June 2009). "Global CO2 emissions: annual increase halves in 2008" (http:/ / www. pbl. nl/ en/ publications/ 2009/ Global-CO2-emissions-annual-increase-halves-in-2008. html). Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) website. . Retrieved 2010-05-05. [57] Carbon Trust (March 2009). "Global Carbon Mechanisms: Emerging lessons and implications (CTC748)" (http:/ / www. carbontrust. co. uk/ Publications/ pages/ publicationdetail. aspx?id=CTC748& respos=2& q=global+ carbon+ market& o=Rank& od=asc& pn=0& ps=10). Carbon Trust website. . Retrieved 2010-03-31. [58] PBL (24 February 2010). "Dossier Climate Change: FAQs. Question 10: Which are the top-20 CO2 or GHG emitting countries?" (http:/ / www. pbl. nl/ en/ dossiers/ Climatechange/ FAQs/ index. html?vraag=10& title=Which are the top-20 CO2 or GHG emitting countries?#10). Netherlands Environment Agency website. . Retrieved 2010-05-01. [59] MNP (2007). "Greenhouse gas emissions of countries in 2005 and ranking of their per capita emissions. Table 2.a. Top-20 countries of greenhouse emissions in 2006 from fossil fuels and cement production" (http:/ / www. pbl. nl/ images/ Top20-CO2andGHG-countries-in2006-2005(GB)_tcm61-36276. xls). Netherlands Environment Agency website. . Retrieved 2010-05-01. [60] Helm, D., et al. (10 December 2007). "Too Good To Be True? The UK's Climate Change Record" (http:/ / www. dieterhelm. co. uk/ sites/ default/ files/ Carbon_record_2007_0. pdf) (PDF). Website of Dieter Helm, a professor at the University of Oxford and a Fellow of New College, Oxford. . Retrieved 2011-04-18.

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[61] Davis, S.K. and K. Caldeira (8 March 2010). "Consumption-based Accounting of CO2 Emissions" (http:/ / www. pnas. org/ content/ early/ 2010/ 02/ 23/ 0906974107. abstract). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. doi:10.1073/pnas.0906974107. . Retrieved 2011-04-18. [62] Rogner, H.-H., D. Zhou, R. Bradley. P. Crabbé, O. Edenhofer, B.Hare, L. Kuijpers, M. Yamaguchi (2007). 1.3.1.2 Intensities. In (book chapter): Introduction. In: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds)) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg3/ en/ ch1s1-3-1-2. html). Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. This version: IPCC website. ISBN 9780521880114. . Retrieved 2010-05-05. [63] Greenhouse Gas Emissions from a Typical Passenger Vehicle, US Environment Protection Agency (http:/ / www. epa. gov/ oms/ climate/ 420f05004. htm#step1) [64] How Gasoline Becomes CO2, Slate Magazine (http:/ / www. slate. com/ id/ 2152685/ ) [65] "Voluntary Reporting of Greenhouse Gases Program" (http:/ / www. eia. doe. gov/ oiaf/ 1605/ coefficients. html). Energy Information Administration. . Retrieved 21 August 2009. [66] AGU Water Vapor in the Climate System - 1995 (http:/ / www. eso. org/ gen-fac/ pubs/ astclim/ espas/ pwv/ mockler. html) [67] Betts et al (2001). "6.3 Well-mixed Greenhouse Gases" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ publications/ other/ ipcc_tar/ ?src=/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 218. htm). Chapter 6 Radiative Forcing of Climate Change. Working Group I: The Scientific Basis IPCC Third Assessment Report - Climate Change 2001. UNEP/GRID-Arendal - Publications. . Retrieved 2010-10-16. [68] Jacob, Daniel (1999). Introduction to Atmospheric Chemistry (http:/ / www-as. harvard. edu/ people/ faculty/ djj/ book/ ). Princeton University Press. pp. 25–26. ISBN 0-691-00185-5. . [69] edited by Susan Solomon ... (2007). "Frequently Asked Question 7.1 "Are the Increases in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Other Greenhouse Gases During the Industrial Era Caused by Human Activities?"" (http:/ / www. gcrio. org/ ipcc/ ar4/ wg1/ faq/ ar4wg1faq-7-1. pdf). In Solomon, Kristen; Qin, Dahe; Manning, Martin et al.. IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http:/ / ipcc-wg1. ucar. edu/ wg1/ wg1-report. html). Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge Press. ISBN 978-0521-88009-1. . Retrieved 24 July 2007. [70] Archer, David (2005). "Fate of fossil fuel CO2 in geologic time" (http:/ / geosci. uchicago. edu/ ~archer/ reprints/ archer. 2005. fate_co2. pdf) (PDF). Journal of Geophysical Research 110 (C9): C09S05.1–C09S05.6. Bibcode 2005JGRC..11009S05A. doi:10.1029/2004JC002625. . Retrieved 27 July 2007. [71] Caldeira, Ken; Wickett, Michael E. (2005). "Ocean model predictions of chemistry changes from carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere and ocean" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20070810202611/ http:/ / www. ipsl. jussieu. fr/ ~jomce/ acidification/ paper/ Caldeira_Wickett_2005_JGR. pdf) (PDF). Journal of Geophysical Research 110 (C9): C09S04.1–12. Bibcode 2005JGRC..11009S04C. doi:10.1029/2004JC002671. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. ipsl. jussieu. fr/ ~jomce/ acidification/ paper/ Caldeira_Wickett_2005_JGR. pdf) on 10 August 2007. . Retrieved 27 July 2007. [72] IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Table 2.14, Chap. 2, p. 212 (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter2. pdf) [73] Use of ozone depleting substances in laboratories (http:/ / www. norden. org/ pub/ ebook/ 2003-516. pdf). TemaNord 2003:516 [74] Montreal Protocol [75] Canadell, J.G.; Le Quere, C.; Raupach, M.R.; Field, C.B.; Buitenhuis, E.T.; Ciais, P.; Conway, T.J.; Gillett, N.P.; Houghton, R.A.; Marland, G. (2007). "Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks" (http:/ / www. pnas. org/ cgi/ reprint/ 0702737104v1. pdf). Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.. . Retrieved 15 March 2008. [76] Obersteiner M, Azar C, Kauppi P, et al. (October 2001). "Managing climate risk". Science 294 (5543): 786–7. doi:10.1126/science.294.5543.786b. PMID 11681318. [77] Azar, C., Lindgren, K., Larson, E.D. and Möllersten, K. (2006). "Carbon capture and storage from fossil fuels and biomass – Costs and potential role in stabilising the atmosphere" (http:/ / www. environmental-expert. com/ Files\6063\articles\6220\w30h4274h130580u. pdf). Climatic Change 74: 47–79. doi:10.1007/s10584-005-3484-7. . [78] "Geoengineering the climate: science, governance and uncertainty" (http:/ / royalsociety. org/ displaypagedoc. asp?id=35151). The Royal Society. 2009. . Retrieved 12 September 2009. [79] Fischer, B.S., N. Nakicenovic, K. Alfsen, J. Corfee Morlot, F. de la Chesnaye, J.-Ch. Hourcade, K. Jiang, M. Kainuma, E. La Rovere, A. Matysek, A. Rana, K. Riahi, R. Richels, S. Rose, D. van Vuuren, R. Warren, (2007) “Issues related to mitigation in the long term context”, In Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg3/ ar4-wg3-chapter3. pdf) [B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. [80] Impact of Emissions, Chemistry, and Climate on Atmospheric Carbon Monoxide: 100-year Predictions from a Global Chemistry-Climate Model (http:/ / web. mit. edu/ globalchange/ www/ MITJPSPGC_Rpt35. pdf)PDF (115 KB) [81] Shindell, Drew T. (2005). "An emissions-based view of climate forcing by methane and tropospheric ozone" (http:/ / www. nasa. gov/ vision/ earth/ lookingatearth/ methane. html). Geophysical Research Letters 32: L04803. Bibcode 2005GeoRL..3204803S. doi:10.1029/2004GL021900. . [82] "Methane's Impacts on Climate Change May Be Twice Previous Estimates" (http:/ / www. nasa. gov/ vision/ earth/ lookingatearth/ methane. html). Nasa.gov. 2007-11-30. . Retrieved 2010-10-16.

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103

References External links
• Greenhouse gas (http://www.dmoz.org/Science/Environment/Global_Change//) at the Open Directory Project • The NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) (http://www.cmdl.noaa.gov/aggi/) • Atmospheric spectra of GHGs and other trace gases (http://www.spectralcalc.com/) • Greenhouse Gases (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggccebro/chapter1.html) Sources, Levels, Study results — University of Michigan; eia.doe.gov findings • How Much Greenhouse Gas Does the United States Emit? (http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/energy_in_brief/ greenhouse_gas.cfm) • Grist article on convenient summary from various sources incl IPCC of greenhouse gas emissions (http:// gristmill.grist.org/story/2009/1/11/192838/298) * * • Convenient summary of Greenhouse gas emissions (http://spreadsheets.google.com/ ccc?key=pzrff2j0rl2wNrQfxOKkYYQ) • Greenhouse Gases (http://www.lakescientist.com/learn-about-lakes/lakes-climate-change/ lakes-and-greenhouse-gases.html) Carbon dioxide emissions • Carbon Emissions World Map in 2009 (http://image.guardian.co.uk/sys-files/Guardian/documents/2011/02/ 10/CarbonWeb.pdf) Mark McCormick and Paul Scruton, Guardian February 2011 • Eddy covariance • International Energy Annual: Reserves (http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/iea/res.html) • International Energy Annual 2003: Carbon Dioxide Emissions (http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/iea/carbon. html) • International Energy Annual 2003: Notes and Sources for Table H.1co2 (http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/iea/ Notes for Table H_1co2.html) (Metric tons of carbon dioxide can be converted to metric tons of carbon equivalent by multiplying by 12/44) • Textbook on Eddy Covariance Measurements of Gas Emissions (http://www.licor.com/env/applications/ eddy_covariance/book.jsp) • Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (http://www.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/) (NOAA) • NOAA Paleoclimatology Program — Vostok Ice Core (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/icecore/antarctica/ vostok/vostok.html) • NOAA CMDL CCGG — Interactive Atmospheric Data Visualization (http://www.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccgg/iadv/ ) NOAA CO2 data • Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre FAQ (http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/pns/faq.html) Includes links to Carbon Dioxide statistics • Little Green Data Book 2007 (http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTDATASTA/64199955-1178226923002/ 21322619/LGDB2007.pdf), World Bank. Lists CO2 statistics by country, including per capita and by country income class. • Database of carbon emissions of power plants (http://www.carma.org/) • NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory (http://oco.jpl.nasa.gov/) Methane emissions • Eddy covariance • BBC News — Thawing Siberian bogs are releasing more methane (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/ nature/5321046.stm)

Greenhouse gas • Textbook on Eddy Covariance Measurements of Gas Emissions (http://www.licor.com/env/applications/ eddy_covariance/book.jsp)

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Land use, land-use change and forestry
Land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) is defined by the UN Climate Change Secretariat as "A greenhouse gas inventory sector that covers emissions and removals of greenhouse gases resulting from direct human-induced land use, land-use change and forestry activities."[1] LULUCF has impacts on the global carbon cycle and as such these activities can add or remove carbon dioxide (or, more generally, carbon) from the atmosphere, contributing to climate change. LULUCF has been the subject of two major reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Additionally, land use is of critical importance for biodiversity.

Climatic impacts of land-use, land-use change and forestry
Land-use change can be a factor in CO2 atmospheric concentration, and is thus a contributor to climate change. IPCC estimates that land-use change (e.g. conversion of forest into agricultural land) contributes a net 1.6 ± 0.8 Gt carbon per year to the atmosphere. For comparison, the major source of CO2, namely emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production amount to 6.3 ± 0.6 Gt carbon per year.[2] This decision sets out the rules that Per capita greenhouse gas emissions by country including govern how Kyoto Parties with emission reduction land-use change commitments (co-called Annex 1 Parties) account for changes in carbon stocks in land use, land-use change and forestry. It is mandatory for Annex 1 Parties to account for changes in carbons stocks resulting from afforestation, reforestation and afforestation (B Article 3.3) [3] and voluntary to account for emissions from forest management, cropland management, grazing land management and revegetation (B. Article 3.4). The rules governing the treatment of land use, land-use change and forestry for the second commitment period are currently being renegotiated as part of the Bali Action Plan under the Ad-Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex 1 Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP) [4] . The most recent options for rule changes under consideration are summarized in a "Non-Paper" the co-chairs of the contact group on LULUCF (as of June 12)[5] .

Land use, land-use change and forestry

105

Land use and biodiversity
The extent, and type of land use directly affects wildlife habitat and thereby impacts local and global biodiversity. Human alteration of landscapes from natural vegetation (e.g. wilderness) to any other use typically results in habitat loss, degradation, and fragmentation, all of which can have devastating effects on biodiversity. Land conversion is the single greatest cause of extinction of terrestrial species[6] . An example of land conversion being a chief cause of the critically endangered status of a carnivore is the reduction in habitat for the African Wild Dog, Lycaon pictus.)[7]

Per capita greenhouse gas emissions by country not including land-use change

Of particular concern is deforestation, where logging or burning are followed by the conversion of the land to agriculture or other land uses. Even if some forests are left standing, the resulting fragmented landscape typically fails to support many species that previously existed there.

References
[1] Land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) (http:/ / unfccc. int/ essential_background/ glossary/ items/ 3666. php#L), Glossary of climate change acronyms, UNFCCC website. Retrieved 2009-01-11. [2] "Vital Climate Graphics | UNEP/GRID-Arendal - Publications - Vital Climate Graphics" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ vital/ 10. htm). Grida.no. . Retrieved 2010-04-29. [3] "Microsoft Word - kpcmp8a3.doc" (http:/ / unfccc. int/ resource/ docs/ 2005/ cmp1/ eng/ 08a03. pdf) (PDF). . Retrieved 2010-04-29. [4] AWG-KP begins final year of work (http:/ / unfccc. int/ kyoto_protocol/ items/ 4795. php), UNFCCC website. Retrieved 2009-10-11. [5] A text on other issues outlined in document FCCC/KP/AWG/2008/8 (http:/ / unfccc. int/ resource/ docs/ 2009/ awg8/ eng/ 08. pdf), UNFCCC website. Retrieved 2009-10-11. [6] Bierregaard, Richard; Claude Gascon, Thomas E. Lovejoy, and Rita Mesquita (eds.) (2001). Lessons from Amazonia: The Ecology and Conservation of a Fragmented Forest. ISBN 0300084838. [7] C. Michael Hogan. 2009. Painted Hunting Dog: Lycaon pictus, GlobalTwitcher.com, ed. N. Stromberg (http:/ / globaltwitcher. auderis. se/ artspec_information. asp?thingid=35993)

External links
• Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/ public/gpglulucf/gpglulucf.htm) • IPCC Special Report on Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/ land_use/index.htm)

Radiative forcing

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Radiative forcing
In climate science, radiative forcing is loosely defined as the change in net irradiance at atmospheric boundaries between different layers of the atmosphere, namely the troposphere and the stratosphere (the tropopause). Net irradiance is the difference between the incoming radiation energy and the outgoing radiation energy in a given climate system and is measured in Watts per square meter. The change is computed based on "unperturbed" values, defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as the measured difference relative to a base period. For radiative forcings for the industrial era, it is customary to take the year 1750 as the starting point. A positive forcing (more incoming energy) tends to warm the system, while a negative forcing (more outgoing energy) tends to cool it. Possible sources of radiative forcing are changes in insolation (incident solar radiation), or the effects of variations in the amount of radiatively active gases and aerosols present. Because the IPCC regularly assesses the radiative forcing, it also has a more specific technical definition - see "IPCC usage" section.

Radiation balance
The vast majority of the energy which affects Earth's weather comes from the Sun. The planet and its atmosphere absorb and reflect some of the energy, while long-wave energy is radiated back into space. The balance between absorbed and radiated energy determines the average temperature. The planet is warmer than it would be in the absence of the atmosphere: see greenhouse effect. The radiation balance can be altered by factors such as intensity of solar energy, reflection by clouds or gases, absorption by various gases or surfaces, and emission of heat by various materials. Any such alteration is a radiative forcing, and causes a new balance to be reached. In the real world this happens continuously as sunlight hits the surface, clouds and aerosols form, the concentrations of atmospheric gases vary, and seasons alter the ground cover.

IPCC usage
The term “radiative forcing” has been used in the IPCC Assessments with a specific technical meaning, to denote an externally imposed perturbation in the radiative energy budget of Earth’s climate system, which may lead to changes in climate parameters.[1] The exact definition used is: The radiative forcing of the surface-troposphere system due to the perturbation in or the introduction of an agent (say, a change in greenhouse gas concentrations) is the change in net (down minus up) irradiance (solar plus long-wave; in Wm-2) at the tropopause AFTER allowing for stratospheric temperatures to 2005 radiative forcings as estimated by the IPCC. readjust to radiative equilibrium, but with surface and tropospheric temperatures and state held fixed at the unperturbed values.[2] In a subsequent report,[3] the IPCC defines it as: "Radiative forcing is a measure of the influence a factor has in altering the balance of incoming and outgoing energy in the Earth-atmosphere system and is an index of the importance of the factor as a potential climate change mechanism. In this report radiative forcing values are for changes relative to preindustrial conditions defined at 1750 and are expressed in watts per square meter (W/m2)."

Radiative forcing In simple terms, radiative forcing is "...the rate of energy change per unit area of the globe as measured at the top of the atmosphere."[4] In the context of climate change, the term "forcing" is restricted to changes in the radiation balance of the surface-troposphere system imposed by external factors, with no changes in stratospheric dynamics, no surface and tropospheric feedbacks in operation (i.e., no secondary effects induced because of changes in tropospheric motions or its thermodynamic state), and no dynamically induced changes in the amount and distribution of atmospheric water (vapour, liquid, and solid forms). Radiative forcing can be used to estimate a subsequent change in equilibrium surface temperature (ΔTs) arising from that radiative forcing via the equation: where λ is the climate sensitivity, usually with units in K/(W/m2), and ΔF is the radiative forcing.[5] A typical value of λ is 0.8 K/(W/m2), which gives a warming of 3K for doubling of CO2.

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Example calculations
Radiative forcing (often measured in watts per square meter) can be estimated in different ways for different components. For the case of a change in solar irradiance, the radiative forcing is the change in the solar constant divided by 4 and multiplied by 0.7 to take into account the geometry of the sphere and the amount of reflected sunlight. For a greenhouse gas, such as carbon dioxide, radiative transfer codes that examine each spectral line for atmospheric conditions can be used to calculate the change ΔF as a function of changing concentration. These calculations can often be simplified into an algebraic formulation that is specific to that gas. For instance, the simplified first-order approximation expression for carbon dioxide is:

Radiative forcing for doubling CO2, as calculated by radiative transfer code Modtran. Red lines are Planck curves.

Radiative forcing for eight times increase of CH4, as calculated by radiative transfer code Modtran.

where C is the CO2 concentration in parts per million by volume and C0 is the reference concentration.[6] The relationship between carbon dioxide and radiative forcing is logarithmic so that increased concentrations have a progressively smaller warming effect. Formulas for other greenhouse gases such as methane, N2O or CFCs are given in the IPCC reports.[7]

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Related measures
Radiative forcing is intended as a useful way to compare different causes of perturbations in a climate system. Other possible tools can be constructed for the same purpose: for example Shine et al.[8] say "...recent experiments indicate that for changes in absorbing aerosols and ozone, the predictive ability of radiative forcing is much worse... we propose an alternative, the 'adjusted troposphere and stratosphere forcing'. We present GCM calculations showing that it is a significantly more reliable predictor of this GCM's surface temperature change than radiative forcing. It is a candidate to supplement radiative forcing as a metric for comparing different mechanisms...". In this quote, GCM stands for "global circulation model", and the word "predictive" does not refer to the ability of GCMs to forecast climate change. Instead, it refers to the ability of the alternative tool proposed by the authors to help explain the system response.

References
[1] [2] [3] [4] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 212. htm http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 214. htm#611 http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ syr/ ar4_syr. pdf Rockstrom, Johan; Steffen, Will; Noone, Kevin; Persson, Asa; Chapin, F. Stuart; Lambin, Eric F.; et al., TM; Scheffer, M et al. (2009). "A safe operating space for humanity". Nature 461 (7263): 472–475. doi:10.1038/461472a. PMID 19779433. [5] http:/ / www. grida. no/ publications/ other/ ipcc_tar/ ?src=/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 222. htm [6] Myhre et al., New estimates of radiative forcing due to well mixed greenhouse gases (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 1998/ 98GL01908. shtml), Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 25, No. 14, pp 2715–2718, 1998 [7] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 222. htm [8] Shine et al., An alternative to radiative forcing for estimating the relative importance of climate change mechanisms (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 2003/ 2003GL018141. shtml), Geophysical Research Letters, Vol 30, No. 20, 2047, doi:10.1029/2003GL018141, 2003

• IPCC glossary http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/glossary/ar4-wg1.pdf

External links
• CO2: The Thermostat that Controls Earth's Temperature (http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/lacis_01/ ) by NASA, Goddard Institute for Space Studies, October, 2010, Forcing vs. Feedbacks • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report (2007), Chapter 2, “Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and Radiative Forcing,” (http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter2.pdf) pp. 133–134 (PDF, 8.6 MB, 106 pp.). • NOAA/ESRL Global Monitoring Division (no date), The NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (http://www. esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/). Calculations of the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases. • U.S. EPA (2009), Climate Change – Science (http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/recentac.html). Explanation of climate change topics including radiative forcing. • United States National Research Council (2005), Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties (http://www.nap.edu/openbook/0309095069/html/), Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate • A layman's guide to radiative forcing, CO2e, global warming potential etc (http://www.darkoptimism.org/ 2008/09/03/the-climate-science-translation-guide)

Urban heat island

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Urban heat island
An urban heat island (UHI) is a metropolitan area which is significantly warmer than its surrounding rural areas. The phenomenon was first investigated and described by Luke Howard in the 1810s, although he was not the one to name the phenomenon.[1] The temperature difference usually is larger at night than during the day, and is most apparent when winds are weak. Seasonally, UHI is seen during both summer and winter. The main cause of the urban heat island is modification of the land surface by urban development which uses materials which effectively retain heat. Tokyo, an example of an urban heat island. Normal temperatures of Tokyo go up Waste heat generated by energy usage is a more than those of the surrounding area. secondary contributor. As population centers grow they tend to modify a greater and greater area of land and have a corresponding increase in average temperature. The lesser-used term heat island refers to any area, populated or not, which is consistently hotter than the surrounding area.[2] Monthly rainfall is greater downwind of cities, partially due to the UHI. Increases in heat within urban centers increases the length of growing seasons, and decreases the occurrence of weak tornadoes. Increases in the death rate during heat waves has been shown to increase by latitude due to the urban heat island effect. The UHI decreases air quality by increasing the production of pollutants such as ozone, and decreases water quality as warmer waters flow into area streams, which stresses their ecosystems. Not all cities have a distinct urban heat island. Mitigation of the urban heat island effect can be accomplished through the use of green roofs and the use of lighter-colored surfaces in urban areas, which reflect more sunlight and absorb less heat. Despite concerns raised about its possible contribution to global warming, comparisons between urban and rural areas show that the urban heat island effects have little influence on global mean temperature trends.[3] Recent qualitative speculations indicate that urban thermal plumes may contribute to variation in wind patterns that may influence the melting of arctic ice packs and thereby the cycle of ocean current.[4]

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Causes
There are several causes of an urban heat island (UHI). The principal reason for the nighttime warming is that buildings block surface heat from radiating into the relatively cold night sky. Two other reasons are changes in the thermal properties of surface materials and lack of evapotranspiration (for example through lack of vegetation) in urban areas. Materials commonly used in urban areas for pavement and roofs, such as concrete and asphalt, have significantly different thermal bulk properties (including heat capacity and thermal conductivity) and surface radiative properties (albedo and emissivity) than the surrounding rural areas. This causes a change in the energy balance of the urban area, often leading to higher temperatures than surrounding rural areas.[5] Other causes of a UHI are due to geometric effects. The tall buildings within many urban areas provide multiple surfaces for the reflection and absorption of sunlight, increasing the efficiency with which urban areas are heated. This is called the "urban canyon effect". Another effect of buildings is the blocking of wind, which also inhibits cooling by convection. Waste heat from automobiles, air conditioning, industry, and other sources also contributes to the UHI. High levels of pollution in urban areas can also increase the UHI, as many forms of pollution change the radiative properties of the atmosphere.[5] Some cities exhibit a heat island effect, largest at night. Seasonally, Thermal (top) and vegetation (bottom) locations around New York City via infrared satellite UHI shows up both in summer and winter.[6] [7] The typical imagery. A comparison of the images shows that temperature difference is several degrees between the center of the city where vegetation is dense, temperatures are and surrounding fields. The difference in temperature between an inner cooler. city and its surrounding suburbs is frequently mentioned in weather reports, as in "68 °F (20 °C) downtown, 64 °F (18 °C) in the suburbs". Black surfaces absorb significantly more electromagnetic radiation, and causes the surfaces of asphalt roads and highways to heat.[8]

Diurnal behavior
The IPCC stated that "it is well-known that compared to non-urban areas urban heat islands raise night-time temperatures more than daytime temperatures."[9] For example, Barcelona, Spain is 0.2 °C (0.4 °F) cooler for daily maxima and 2.9 °C (5.2 °F) warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.[10] A description of the very first report of the UHI by Luke Howard in the late 1810s said that the urban center of London was warmer at night than the surrounding countryside by 3.7 °F (2.1 °C).[11] Though the warmer air temperature within the UHI is generally most apparent at night, urban heat islands exhibit significant and somewhat paradoxical diurnal behavior. The air temperature difference between the UHI and the surrounding environment is large at night and small during the day. The opposite is true for skin temperatures of the urban landscape within the UHI.[12] Throughout the daytime, particularly when the skies are free of clouds, urban surfaces are warmed by the absorption of solar radiation. Surfaces in the urban areas tend to warm faster than those of the surrounding rural areas. By virtue of their high heat capacities, urban surfaces act as a giant reservoir of heat energy. For example, concrete can hold roughly 2,000 times as much heat as an equivalent volume of air. As a result, the large daytime surface temperature within the UHI is easily seen via thermal remote sensing.[13] As is often the case with daytime heating, this warming

Urban heat island also has the effect of generating convective winds within the urban boundary layer. It is theorized that, due to the atmospheric mixing that results, the air temperature perturbation within the UHI is generally minimal or nonexistent during the day, though the surface temperatures can reach extremely high levels.[14] At night, the situation reverses. The absence of solar heating causes the atmospheric convection to decrease, and the urban boundary layer begins to stabilize. If enough stabilization occurs, an inversion layer is formed. This traps urban air near the surface, and keeping surface air warm from the still-warm urban surfaces, forming the nighttime warmer air temperatures within the UHI. Other than the heat retention properties of urban areas, the nighttime maximum in urban canyons could also be due to the blocking of "sky view" during cooling: surfaces lose heat at night principally by radiation to the comparatively cool sky, and this is blocked by the buildings in an urban area. Radiative cooling is more dominant when wind speed is low and the sky is cloudless, and indeed the UHI is found to be largest at night in these conditions.[15]

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Other impacts on weather and climate
Aside from the effect on temperature, UHIs can produce secondary effects on local meteorology, including the altering of local wind patterns, the development of clouds and fog, the humidity, and the rates of precipitation.[16] The extra heat provided by the UHI leads to greater upward motion, which can induce additional shower and thunderstorm activity. In addition, the UHI creates during the day a local low pressure area where relatively moist air from its rural surroundings converges, possibly leading to more favorable conditions for cloud formation.[17] Rainfall rates downwind of cities are increased between 48% and 116%. Partly as a result of this warming, monthly rainfall is about 28% greater between 20 miles (32 km) to 40 miles (64 km) downwind of cities, compared with upwind.[18] Some cities show a total precipitation increase of 51%.[19] Research has been done in a few areas suggesting that metropolitan areas are less susceptible to weak tornadoes due to the turbulent mixing caused by the warmth of the urban heat island.[20] Using satellite images, researchers discovered that city climates have a noticeable influence on plant growing seasons up to 10 kilometers (6 mi) away from a city's edges. Growing seasons in 70 cities in eastern North America were about 15 days longer in urban areas compared to rural areas outside of a city's influence.[21] [22]

Health effects
UHIs have the potential to directly influence the health and welfare of urban residents. Within the United States alone, an average of 1,000 people die each year due to extreme heat.[23] As UHIs are characterized by increased temperature, they can potentially increase the magnitude and duration of heat waves within cities. Research has found that the mortality rate during a heat wave increases exponentially with the maximum temperature,[24] an effect that is exacerbated by the UHI. The nighttime effect of UHIs can be particularly harmful during a heat wave, as it deprives urban residents of the cool relief found in rural areas during the night.[25]

Research in the United States suggests that the relationship between extreme temperature and mortality varies by location. Heat is more likely to increase the risk of mortality in cities at mid-latitudes and high latitudes with significant annual temperature variation. For example, when Chicago and New York experience unusually hot summertime temperatures, elevated levels of illness and death are predicted. In contrast, parts of the country that are mild to hot year-round have a lower public health risk from excessive heat. Research shows that residents of southern cities, such as Miami, tend to be acclimated to hot weather conditions and therefore less vulnerable to heat related deaths.[26]

Image of Atlanta, Georgia, showing temperature distribution, with blue showing cool temperatures, red warm, and hot areas appear white.

Urban heat island Increased temperatures and sunny days help lead to the formation of low-level ozone from volatile organic compounds and nitrous oxides which already exist in the air. As urban heat islands lead to increased temperatures within cities, they contribute to worsened air quality.[27] UHIs also impair water quality. Hot pavement and rooftop surfaces transfer their excess heat to stormwater, which then drains into storm sewers and raises water temperatures as it is released into streams, rivers, ponds, and lakes. Rapid temperature changes can be stressful to aquatic ecosystems.[28]

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Impact on nearby water bodies
Runoff from rainfall can lead to heating via conduction from the surface which the water is flowing over. In August 2001, rains over Cedar Rapids, Iowa led to a 10.5C (18.9F) rise in the nearby stream within one hour, which led to a fish kill. Since the temperature of the rain was comparatively cool, it could be attributed to the hot pavement of the city. Similar events have been documented across the American Midwest, as well as Oregon and California.[29]

Impact on energy usage
Another consequence of urban heat islands is the increased energy required for air conditioning and refrigeration in cities that are in comparatively hot climates. The Heat Island Group estimates that the heat island effect costs Los Angeles about US$100 million per year in energy.[30] Conversely, those that are in cold climates such as Moscow, Russia would have less demand for heating. However, through the implementation of heat island reduction strategies, significant annual net energy savings have been calculated for northern locations such as Chicago, Salt Lake City, and Toronto.[31]

Images of Salt Lake City, Utah, show positive correlation between white reflective roofs and cooler temperatures. Image A depicts an aerial view of Salt Lake City, Utah, site of 865000-square-foot (80400 m2) white reflective roof. Image B is a thermal infrared image of same area, showing hot (red and yellow) and cool (green and blue) spots. The reflective vinyl roof, not absorbing solar radiation, is shown in blue surrounded by other hot spots.

Mitigation
The temperature difference between urban areas and the surrounding suburban or rural areas can be as much as 10 degrees. Nearly 40 percent of that increase is due to the prevalence of dark roofs, with the balance coming from dark pavement and the declining presence of vegetation. The heat island effect can be counteracted slightly by using white or reflective materials to build houses, roofs, pavements, and roads, thus increasing the overall albedo of the city. Relative to remedying the other sources of the problem, replacing dark roofing requires the least amount of investment for the most immediate return. Green roof of City Hall in Chicago, Illinois. A cool roof made from a reflective material such as vinyl can reflect three-quarters of the sun’s rays – usually far more – and emit 70 or more percent of the solar radiation absorbed by the building envelope. Asphalt built-up roofs (BUR), by comparison, reflect between 6 percent and 26 percent of solar radiation.[32]

Urban heat island Using light-colored concrete has proven effective in reflecting up to 50% more light than asphalt and reducing ambient temperature.[33] A low albedo value, characteristic of black asphalt, absorbs a large percentage of solar heat and contributes to the warming of cities. By paving with light colored concrete, in addition to replacing asphalt with light-colored concrete, communities can lower their average temperature.[34] This is a long established practice in many countries. A second option is to increase the amount of well-watered vegetation. These two options can be combined with the implementation of green roofs. Green roofs are excellent insulators during the warm weather months and the plants cool the surrounding environment. Air quality is improved as the plants absorb and convert carbon dioxide to oxygen.[35] The city of New York determined that the cooling potential per area was highest for street trees, followed by living roofs, light covered surface, and open space planting. From the standpoint of cost effectiveness, light surfaces, light roofs, and curbside planting have lower costs per temperature reduction.[36] A hypothetical "cool communities" program in Los Angeles has projected that urban temperatures could be reduced by approximately 3 °C (5 °F) after planting ten million trees, reroofing five million homes, and painting one-quarter of the roads at an estimated cost of US$1 billion, giving estimated annual benefits of US$170 million from reduced air-conditioning costs and US$360 million in smog related health savings.[37]

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Green building programs that encourage reduction in the effect
Voluntary green building programs have been promoting the mitigation of the heat island effect for years.[38] For example, one of the ways for a site to earn points under the US Green Building Council’s (USGBC) Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) Green Building Rating System is to take action that reduces heat islands, minimizing impacts on microclimates and human and wildlife habitats. Credits associated with reflective roofing or planted roofs can help a building achieve LEED certification. Buildings also receive credits by providing shade.[39] Similarly, The Green Building Initiative (GBI)’s Green Globes program awards points to sites that take measures to decrease a building’s energy consumption and reduce the heat island effect. As many as 10 points may be awarded to sites with roof coverage from vegetation, highly reflective materials, or a combination of the two.[40]

Global warming
Because some parts of some cities may be hotter than their surroundings, concerns have been raised that the effects of urban sprawl might be misinterpreted as an increase in global temperature. While the "heat island" warming is an important local effect, there is no evidence that it biases trends in historical temperature record. For example, urban and rural trends are very similar.[9] The Third Assessment Report from the IPCC says: However, over the Northern Hemisphere land areas where A depiction of the varying degree of the urban urban heat islands are most apparent, both the trends of heat island effect as a function of land use. Gill et lower-tropospheric temperature and surface air temperature [41] al. 2007 found that an additional 10% green show no significant differences. In fact, the lower-tropospheric space can mitigate UHI by up to 4 °C (7 °F). temperatures warm at a slightly greater rate over North America (about 0.28°C/decade using satellite data) than do the surface temperatures (0.27°C/decade), although again the difference is not statistically significant.[9] Ground temperature measurements, like most weather observations, are logged by location. Their siting predates the massive sprawl, roadbuilding programs, and high- and medium-rise expansions which contribute to the UHI. More

Urban heat island importantly, station logs allow sites in question to be filtered easily from data sets. Doing so, the presence of heat islands is visible, but overall trends change in magnitude, not direction. The effects of the urban heat island may be overstated. One study stated, "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." This was done by using satellite-based night-light detection of urban areas, and more thorough homogenisation of the time series (with corrections, for example, for the tendency of surrounding rural stations to be slightly higher in elevation, and thus cooler, than urban areas). If its conclusion is accepted, then it is necessary to "unravel the mystery of how a global temperature time series created partly from urban in situ stations could show no contamination from urban warming." The main conclusion is that microscale and local-scale impacts dominate the mesoscale impact of the urban heat island. Many sections of towns may be warmer than rural sites, but surface weather observations are likely to be made in park "cool islands."[42] Not all cities show a warming relative to their rural surroundings. After trends were adjusted in urban weather stations around the world to match rural stations in their regions, in an effort to homogenise the temperature record, in 42 percent of cases, cities were getting cooler relative to their surroundings rather than warmer. One reason is that urban areas are heterogeneous, and weather stations are often sited in "cool islands" – parks, for example – within urban areas.[43] Studies in 2004 and 2006 attempted to test the urban heat island theory, by comparing temperature readings taken on calm nights with those taken on windy nights.[44] [45] If the urban heat island theory is correct then instruments should have recorded a bigger temperature rise for calm nights than for windy ones, because wind blows excess heat away from cities and away from the measuring instruments. There was no difference between the calm and windy nights, and one study said that we show that, globally, temperatures over land have risen as much on windy nights as on calm nights, indicating that the observed overall warming is not a consequence of urban development.[44] [46] A view often held by skeptics of global warming is that much of the temperature increase seen in land based thermometers could be due to an increase in urbanization and the siting of measurement stations in urban areas.[47] For example, Ross McKitrick and Patrick J. Michaels conducted a statistical study of surface-temperature data regressed against socioeconomic indicators, and concluded that about half of the observed warming trend (for 1979–2002) could be accounted for by the residual UHI effects in the corrected temperature data set they studied—which had already been processed to remove the (modeled) UHI contribution.[48] [49] Critics of this paper, including Gavin A. Schmidt,[50] have said the results can be explained away as an artifact of spatial autocorrelation. Mckittrick and Nicolas Nierenberg have rebutted Schmidt's critique, and found that "the evidence for contamination of climatic data is robust across numerous data sets." [51] Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report from the IPCC states the following. Studies that have looked at hemispheric and global scales conclude that any urban-related trend is an order of magnitude smaller than decadal and longer time-scale trends evident in the series (e.g., Jones et al., 1990; Peterson et al., 1999). This result could partly be attributed to the omission from the gridded data set of a small number of sites (<1%) with clear urban-related warming trends. In a worldwide set of about 270 stations, Parker (2004, 2006) noted that warming trends in night minimum temperatures over the period 1950 to 2000 were not enhanced on calm nights, which would be the time most likely to be affected by urban warming. Thus, the global land warming trend discussed is very unlikely to be influenced significantly by increasing urbanisation (Parker, 2006). ... Accordingly, this assessment adds the same level of urban warming uncertainty as in the TAR: 0.006°C per decade since 1900 for land, and 0.002°C per decade since 1900 for blended land with ocean, as ocean UHI is zero.[52]

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Urban heat island

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Ocean temperatures
Climate reporting includes "global average surface temperature," which is combined from the land surface temperature and ocean surface temperature. As the Fourth Assessment hints, the oceans are immune to urban measurement effects. Oceanic data is in hand from a wide variety of different data collection methods, taken by both civil and national defense groups, and academic and commercial groups, as well as multiple subsurface readings: • • • • Fixed and drifting weather buoys Weather ships and ships' logs [53] Several sinker and float types Ocean acoustic tomography

As water covers approximately 70% of the surface of the Earth, has a higher thermal mass, and can mix, any possible errors due to urbanization (itself a fraction of the land area) will be averaged down to a fraction of their original magnitude.

Three-dimensional sampling
In addition, lower-, middle-, upper-, and ultrahigh-atmosphere datasets can be consulted. In addition to distance, winds and mixing, as mentioned above, average down any effects of urban heating on an instrument. Many weather balloons are launched daily, around the world; balloons often reach the stratosphere, and depending on launch site may also overfly oceans. Dedicated weather planes exist; AIREP and AMDAR data from airliner programs (both dedicated, and incidental) also records the stratosphere, and includes transoceanic routes. Satellites observe over both land and water, recording temperatures at altitude through infrared and microwave radiometry, and now refractometry. In exceptional situations dropsondes may be used to profile storms in three dimensions. Lower-quality data can be obtained with rocketsondes, temperature LIDARs, measurement of orbital decay on suitable satellites, and other methods.

Phenology
Most phenologies are not reliant on instrumentation, and are largely immune to calibration effects. While they are subject to observer and sampling effects, and have far coarser resolutions, they complement instrument data by acting as independent checks. Phenologies also include shifts in the ranges of fish, and high-altitude observations.

References
[1] Luke Howard, The climate of London, deduced from Meteorological observations, made at different places in the neighbourhood of the metropolis, 2 vol., London, 1818-20 [2] Glossary of Meteorology (2009). "Urban Heat Island" (http:/ / amsglossary. allenpress. com/ glossary/ search?id=urban-heat-island1). American Meteorological Society. . Retrieved 2009-06-19. [3] Peterson, T.C.; Gallo, K.P.; Lawrimore, J.; Owen, T.W.; Huang, A.; McKittrick, D.A. (1999). "Global rural temperature trends". Geophysical Research Letters 26 (3): 329–332. Bibcode 1999GeoRL..26..329P. doi:10.1029/1998GL900322. [4] Anthony Rail (2007). Urban Thermal Plumes (1st ed.). Sudbury: Kastell. ISBN 978-0-9565215-0-7. [5] T. R. Oke (1982). "The energetic basis of the urban heat island". Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 108: 1–24. [6] Imyunku (2009). "Learning About Urban Heat Islands" (http:/ / home. pusan. ac. kr/ ~imyunkyu/ research/ about_UHI. html). Pusan National University. . Retrieved 2009-06-18. [7] Hinkel, Kenneth M. (March 2003). "Barrow Urban Heat Island Study" (http:/ / www. geography. uc. edu/ ~kenhinke/ uhi/ ). Department of Geography, University of Cincinnati. . Retrieved 2007-08-02. [8] Brian Jones (2007-11-14). "What does color have to do with cooling?" (http:/ / littleshop. physics. colostate. edu/ activities/ atmos1/ ColorAndCooling. pdf). Colorado State University. . Retrieved 2009-09-07. [9] IPCC (2001). "Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Chapter 2.2 How Much is the World Warming?" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 052. htm#2221). . Retrieved 2009-06-18. [10] M. Carmen Moreno-garcia (1993-10-28). "Intensity and form of the urban heat island in barcelona" (http:/ / www3. interscience. wiley. com/ journal/ 114028197/ abstract?CRETRY=1& SRETRY=0). International Journal of Climatology 14 (6): 705–710. doi:10.1002/joc.3370140609. . Retrieved 2009-06-27.

Urban heat island
[11] Keith C. Heidorn (2009). "Luke Howard: The Man Who Named The Clouds" (http:/ / www. islandnet. com/ ~see/ weather/ history/ howard. htm). Islandnet.com. . Retrieved 2009-06-18. [12] M. Roth, T. R. Oke, and W. J. Emery (1989). "Satellite-derived urban heat islands from three coastal cities and the utilization of such data in urban climatology". International Journal of Remote Sensing 10: 1699–1720. doi:10.1080/01431168908904002. [13] H.-Y. Lee (1993). "An application of NOAA AVHRR thermal data to the study or urban heat islands". Atmospheric Environment 27B: 1–13. [14] I. Camilloni and V. Barros (1997). "On the urban heat island effect dependence on temperature trends". Climatic Change 37: 665–681. doi:10.1023/A:1005341523032. [15] C.J.G. (Jon) Morris (2006-07-09). earthsci.unimelb.edu.au "Urban Heat Islands and Climate Change - Melbourne, Australia" (http:/ / www. earthsci. unimelb. edu. au/ ~jon/ WWW/ uhi-melb. html). University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. earthsci.unimelb.edu.au. Retrieved 2009-06-18. [16] Arizona Board of Regents (2006). "Urban Climate – Climate Study and UHI via the Internet Wayback Machine" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20071123091726/ http:/ / asusmart. com/ urbanclimate. php). Arizona State University. Archived from the original (http:/ / asusmart. com/ urbanclimate. php) on 2007-11-23. . Retrieved 2007-08-02. [17] Chiel C. van Heerwaarden and J. Vilà-Guerau de Arellano (2008). "Relative humidity as an indicator for cloud formation over heterogeneous land surfaces". Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 65: 3263–3277. doi:10.1175/2008JAS2591.1. [18] Fuchs, Dale (2005-06-28). "Spain goes hi-tech to beat drought" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ weather/ Story/ 0,2763,1516375,00. html). The Guardian. . Retrieved 2007-08-02. [19] Goddard Space Flight Center (2002-06-18). "NASA Satellite Confirms Urban Heat Islands Increase Rainfall Around Cities" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20080612173654/ http:/ / www. gsfc. nasa. gov/ topstory/ 20020613urbanrain. html). National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. gsfc. nasa. gov/ topstory/ 20020613urbanrain. html) on June 12, 2008. . Retrieved 2009-07-17. [20] "Myths and Misconceptions about Tornadoes" (http:/ / www. tornadoproject. com/ myths/ myths. htm). Tornado Project. 1999. . Retrieved 2008-06-24. [21] NASA (2004-06-29). "Urban Heat Islands Make Cities Greener" (http:/ / eobglossary. gsfc. nasa. gov/ Newsroom/ NasaNews/ 2004/ 2004072917348. html). Press release. . Retrieved 2007-08-02. [22] Gretchen Cook-Anderson (2004-06-29). "Urban Heat Islands Make Cities Greener" (http:/ / www. nasa. gov/ centers/ goddard/ news/ topstory/ 2004/ 0801uhigreen. html). NASA. . Retrieved 2007-08-02. [23] S. A. Changnon, Jr., K. E. Kunkel, and B. C. Reinke (1996). "Impacts and responses to the 1995 heat wave: A call to action". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 77: 1497–1506. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<1497:IARTTH>2.0.CO;2. [24] R. W. Buechley, J. Van Bruggen, and L. E. Trippi (1972). "Heat island = death island?". Environmental Research 5 (1): 85–92. doi:10.1016/0013-9351(72)90022-9. PMID 5032927. [25] J. F. Clarke (1972). "Some effects of the urban structure on heat mortality". Environmental Research 5 (1): 93–104. doi:10.1016/0013-9351(72)90023-0. PMID 5032928. [26] Robert E. Davis, Paul C. Knappenberger, Patrick J. Michaels, and Wendy M. Novicoff (November 2003). "Changing Heat-Related Mortality in the United States" (http:/ / www. ehponline. org/ members/ 2003/ 6336/ 6336. html). Environmental Health Perspectives 111 (14): 1712–1718. doi:10.1289/ehp.6336. PMC 1241712. PMID 14594620. . [27] New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (2006-06-13). "Weather and Air Quality" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20061008122320/ http:/ / www. nj. gov/ dep/ airmon/ waqpage. htm). Interet Archive Wayback Machine. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. nj. gov/ dep/ airmon/ waqpage. htm) on 2006-10-08. . Retrieved 2008-06-18. [28] "Urban Climate – Climate Study and UHI" (http:/ / www. epa. gov/ hiri/ about/ index. htm). United States Environmental Protection Agency. 2009-02-09. . Retrieved 2009-06-18. [29] Paul A. Tipler and Gene Mosca (2007). Physics for Scientists and Engineers (http:/ / books. google. com/ books?id=BMVR37-8Jh0C& pg=PA686& lpg=PA686& dq=satellite+ temperature+ urban+ heat+ island+ book& source=bl& ots=hEWBhB9LVb& sig=_UwQfiQQgzI9PjWJ9fJwYY_HEp8& hl=en& ei=f8kwTaDhLsSugQfJ4pSgCw& sa=X& oi=book_result& ct=result& resnum=4& sqi=2& ved=0CCsQ6AEwAw#v=onepage& q=satellite temperature urban heat island book& f=false). Macmillan. p. 686. ISBN 9781429201247. . Retrieved 2011-01-14. [30] Sheng-chieh Chang (2000-06-23). "Energy Use" (http:/ / eetd. lbl. gov/ HeatIsland/ EnergyUse/ ). Environmental Energies Technology Division. . Retrieved 2009-06-18. [31] "Aging and Weathering of Cool Roofing Membranes" (http:/ / www. vinylroofs. org/ downloads/ library/ aging_weathering. pdf). Cool Roofing Symposium. 2005-08-23. . Retrieved 2010-08-16. [32] "Comprehensive Cool Roof Guide from the Vinyl Roofing Division of the Chemical Fabrics and Film Association" (http:/ / vinylroofs. org/ cool-roofs/ cool-roofs-explained. html). . [33] "Cool Pavement Report" (http:/ / www. epa. gov/ heatisland/ resources/ pdf/ CoolPavementReport_Former Guide_complete. pdf) (PDF). Environmental Protection Agency. June 2005. p. 14. . Retrieved 2009-02-06. [34] Al Gore; A. Steffen (2008). World Changing: A User's Guide for the 21st Century. New York: Abrams. pp. 258. [35] "Green (Planted) Roofs" (http:/ / vinylroofs. org/ cool-roofs/ green-planted-roofs. html). . Retrieved 2010-08-07. [36] New York City Regional Heat Island Initiative (October 2006). "Mitigating New York City's Heat Island With Urban Forestry, Living Roofs, and Light Surfaces" (http:/ / www. nyserda. org/ programs/ environment/ emep/ project/ 6681_25/ 06-06 Complete report-web. pdf).

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New York State Energy Research and Development Authority. p. ii. . Retrieved 2009-06-18. [37] Arthur Rosenfeld; Joseph Romm; Hashem Akbari; Alana Lloyd (February/March 1997). "Painting the Town White -- and Green" (http:/ / eetd. lbl. gov/ HeatIsland/ PUBS/ PAINTING/ ). MIT Technology Review. . Retrieved 2007-09-29. [38] "Voluntary Green Building Programs" (http:/ / vinylroofs. org/ cool-roofs/ green-programs. html). . Retrieved 2010-08-17. [39] "LEED 2009 for New Construction and Major Renovations Rating System" (http:/ / www. usgbc. org/ ShowFile. aspx?DocumentID=5546). US Green Building Council. November 2008. . Retrieved 2010-08-17. [40] "Green Globes" (http:/ / vinylroofs. org/ cool-roofs/ green-programs-globes. html). . Retrieved 2010-08-17. [41] http:/ / www. atypon-link. com/ ALEX/ doi/ abs/ 10. 2148/ benv. 33. 1. 115 [42] T. C. Peterson (2003). "Assessment of Urban Versus Rural In Situ Surface Temperatures in the Contiguous United States: No Difference Found" (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ oa/ wmo/ ccl/ rural-urban. pdf). Journal of Climate 16: 2941–2959. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<2941:AOUVRI>2.0.CO;2. . [43] J. Hansen, R. Ruedy, M. Sato, M. Imhoff, W. Lawrence, D. Easterling, T. Peterson, and T. Karl (2001). "A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change". Journal of Geophysical Research 106: 239–247. Bibcode 2001JGR...10623947H. doi:10.1029/2001JD000354. [44] D. E. Parker (2004). "Climate: Large-scale warming is not urban". Nature 432 (7015): 290. doi:10.1038/432290a. PMID 15549087. [45] David E. Parker (2006). "A demonstration that large-scale warming is not urban". Journal of Climate 19: 2882–2895. doi:10.1175/JCLI3730.1. [46] Black, Richard (2004-11-18). "Climate change sceptics 'wrong'" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ uk_news/ 4021197. stm). BBC News. . Retrieved 2007-08-02. [47] Richard Black (2004-11-18). "Climate change sceptics 'wrong'" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 1/ hi/ uk/ 4021197. stm). BBC. . Retrieved 2009-06-18. [48] McKitrick, R.R. and P.J. Michaels (2007), Quantifying the influence of anthropogenic surface processes and inhomogeneities on gridded global climate data, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D24S09, doi:10.1029/2007JD008465. Full text (http:/ / www. uoguelph. ca/ ~rmckitri/ research/ jgr07/ M& M. JGRDec07. pdf) [49] Non-technical summary of M&M 2007 by McKitrick (http:/ / www. uoguelph. ca/ ~rmckitri/ research/ jgr07/ M& M. JGR07-background. pdf) [50] Gavin A. Schmidt, 2009, "Spurious correlations between recent warming and indices of local economic activity." International Journal of Climatology, http:/ / dx. doi. org/ 10. 1002/ joc. 1831, full text (http:/ / www3. interscience. wiley. com/ cgi-bin/ fulltext/ 121590177/ PDFSTART) [51] McKitrick, Ross R. and Nicolas Nierenberg (2010), "Socioeconomic Patterns in Climate Data." Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 35, Number 3-4 / 2010. doi:10.3233/JEM-2010-0336. Full text (http:/ / rossmckitrick. weebly. com/ uploads/ 4/ 8/ 0/ 8/ 4808045/ final_jesm_dec2010. formatted. pdf). Also see (http:/ / rossmckitrick. weebly. com/ temperature-data-quality. html) for a non-technical summary, and comments on the publication delay. [52] Kevin E. Trenberth, Philip D. Jones, Peter Ambenje, Roxana Bojariu, David Easterling, Albert Klein Tank, David Parker, Fatemeh Rahimzadeh, James A. Renwick, Matilde Rusticucci, Brian Soden, and Panmao Zhai (2007). "IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - Chapter 3 Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter3. pdf). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. p. 244. . Retrieved 2009-06-27. [53] http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ oa/ climate/ coads/

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Further reading
• P. D. Jones, P.Y. Groisman, M. Coughlan, N. Plummer, W.-C. Wang, T.R. Karl (1990). "Assessment of urbanization effects in time series of surface air temperature over land". Nature 347: 169–172. doi:10.1038/347169a0. • Helmut E. Landsberg (1981). The Urban Climate. New York: Academic Press. ISBN 0124359604.

External links
• Land-Surface Air Temperature (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/052.htm#2221) - from the IPCC • Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Heat Island Group (http://eetd.lbl.gov/HeatIsland/) • NASA Earth Observatory: The Earth's Big Cities, Urban Heat Islands (http://eobglossary.gsfc.nasa.gov/Study/ GreenRoof/index.html) • Urban Heat Islands and Climate Change (http://www.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au/~jon/WWW/uhi-melb.html) from the University of Melbourne, Australia • Reducing Urban Heat Islands: Compendium of Strategies – Green Roofs (http://vinylroofs.org/downloads/ green-roofs/GreenRoofsCompendium.pdf)

Urban heat island • Research and mitigation strategies on UHI (http://asusmart.com/urbanclimate.php) - US EPA designated, National Center of Excellence on SMART Innovations at Arizona State University • The Surface Temperature Record and the Urban Heat Island (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=43) From RealClimate.org • Urban Heat Island research group (http://isu1.indstate.edu/heatisland/) - NSF project, Department of Geography, Indiana State University • UrbanHeatIslands.com (http://www.urbanheatislands.com/) - Urban Heat islands in Canada and the world

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Albedo
Albedo (English pronunciation: /ælˈbiːdoʊ/), or reflection coefficient, is the diffuse reflectivity or reflecting power of a surface. It is defined as the ratio of reflected radiation from the surface to incident radiation upon it. Being a dimensionless fraction, it may also be expressed as a percentage, and is measured on a scale from zero for no reflecting power of a perfectly black surface, to 1 for perfect reflection of a white surface. Albedo depends on the frequency of the radiation. When quoted unqualified, it usually refers to some appropriate average across the spectrum of visible light. In general, the albedo depends on the directional distribution of incoming radiation. Exceptions are Lambertian surfaces, which scatter radiation in all directions according to a cosine function, so their albedo does not depend on the incident distribution. In practice, a bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) may be required to characterize the scattering properties of a surface accurately, although the albedo is a very useful first approximation.

Percentage of diffusely reflected sun light in relation to various surface conditions of the Earth

The albedo is an important concept in climatology and astronomy, as well as in computer graphics and computer vision. The average overall albedo of Earth, its planetary albedo, is 30 to 35%, because of the covering by clouds, but varies widely locally across the surface, depending on the geological and environmental features.[1] The term is derived from Latin albedo "whiteness", in turn from albus "white", and was introduced into optics by Johann Heinrich Lambert in his 1760 work Photometria.

Terrestrial albedo

Albedo

119

Sample albedos
Surface Typical albedo 0.04 0.12 [2] [2] [3] 0.09 to 0.15 [4]

Fresh asphalt Worn asphalt Conifer forest (Summer)

0.08,

Deciduous trees 0.15 to 0.18[4] Bare soil Green grass Desert sand New concrete Ocean Ice Fresh snow 0.17 0.25 0.40 0.55 [5] [5] [6] [5] [5] [5]

0.5–0.7

0.80–0.90

Albedos of typical materials in visible light range from up to 0.9 for fresh snow, to about 0.04 for charcoal, one of the darkest substances. Deeply shadowed cavities can achieve an effective albedo approaching the zero of a black body. When seen from a distance, the ocean surface has a low albedo, as do most forests, while desert areas have some of the highest albedos among landforms. Most land areas are in an albedo range of 0.1 to 0.4.[7] The average albedo of the Earth is about 0.3.[8] This is far higher than for the ocean primarily because of the contribution of clouds. Human activities have changed the albedo (via forest clearance and farming, for example) of various areas around the globe. However, quantification of this effect on the global scale is difficult. The classic example of albedo effect is the snow-temperature feedback. If a snow-covered area warms and the snow melts, the albedo decreases, more sunlight is absorbed, and the temperature tends to increase. The converse is true: if snow forms, a cooling cycle happens. The intensity of the albedo effect depends on the size of the change in albedo and the amount of insolation; for this reason it can be potentially very large in the tropics.

Albedo

120 The Earth's surface albedo is regularly estimated via Earth observation satellite sensors such as NASA's MODIS instruments onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites. As the total amount of reflected radiation cannot be directly measured by satellite, a mathematical model of the BRDF is used to translate a sample set of satellite reflectance measurements into estimates of directional-hemispherical reflectance and bi-hemispherical reflectance. (e. g., .[9] ) The Earth's average surface temperature due to its albedo and the greenhouse effect is currently about 15°C. For the frozen (more reflective) planet the average temperature is below -40°C[10] (If only all continents being completely covered by glaciers - the [11] mean temperature is about 0°C ). The simulation for (more absorptive) aquaplanet shows the average temperature close to 27°C.[12]

2003-2004 mean annual clear sky and total sky albedo

White-sky and black-sky albedo
It has been shown that for many applications involving terrestrial albedo, the albedo at a particular solar zenith angle can reasonably be approximated by the proportionate sum of two terms: the directional-hemispherical reflectance at that solar zenith angle, , and the bi-hemispherical reflectance, . the proportion concerned being defined as the proportion of diffuse illumination Albedo can then be given as:

Directional-hemispherical reflectance is sometimes referred to as black-sky albedo and bi-hemispherical reflectance as white sky albedo. These terms are important because they allow the albedo to be calculated for any given illumination conditions from a knowledge of the intrinsic properties of the surface.[13]

Astronomical albedo
The albedos of planets, satellites and asteroids can be used to infer much about their properties. The study of albedos, their dependence on wavelength, lighting angle ("phase angle"), and variation in time comprises a major part of the astronomical field of photometry. For small and far objects that cannot be resolved by telescopes, much of what we know comes from the study of their albedos. For example, the absolute albedo can indicate the surface ice content of outer solar system objects, the variation of albedo with phase angle gives information about regolith properties, while unusually high radar albedo is indicative of high metallic content in asteroids. Enceladus, a moon of Saturn, has one of the highest known albedos of any body in the Solar system, with 99% of EM radiation reflected. Another notable high albedo body is Eris, with an albedo of 0.86. Many small objects in the outer solar system[14] and asteroid belt have low albedos down to about 0.05.[15] A typical comet nucleus has an albedo of 0.04.[16] Such a dark surface is thought to be indicative of a primitive and heavily space weathered surface containing some organic compounds. The overall albedo of the Moon is around 0.12, but it is strongly directional and non-Lambertian, displaying also a strong opposition effect.[17] While such reflectance properties are different from those of any terrestrial terrains, they are typical of the regolith surfaces of airless solar system bodies.

Albedo Two common albedos that are used in astronomy are the (V-band) geometric albedo (measuring brightness when illumination comes from directly behind the observer) and the Bond albedo (measuring total proportion of electromagnetic energy reflected). Their values can differ significantly, which is a common source of confusion. In detailed studies, the directional reflectance properties of astronomical bodies are often expressed in terms of the five Hapke parameters which semi-empirically describe the variation of albedo with phase angle, including a characterization of the opposition effect of regolith surfaces. The correlation between astronomical , where is the astronomical albedo, is the diameter in kilometres, and H is the absolute magnitude. (geometric) albedo, absolute magnitude and diameter is:[18]

121

Examples of terrestrial albedo effects
The tropics
Although the albedo-temperature effect is best known in colder regions on Earth, because more snow falls there, it is actually much stronger in tropical regions which receive consistently more sunlight.

Small scale effects
Albedo works on a smaller scale, too. People who wear dark clothes in the summertime put themselves at a greater risk of heatstroke than those who wear lighter color clothes.[19]

Trees
Because trees tend to have a low albedo, removing forests would tend to increase albedo and thereby could produce localized climate cooling (ignoring the lost evaporative cooling effect of trees). Cloud feedbacks further complicate the issue. In seasonally snow-covered zones, winter albedos of treeless areas are 10% to 50% higher than nearby forested areas because snow does not cover the trees as readily. Deciduous trees have an albedo value of about 0.15 to 0.18 while coniferous trees have a value of about 0.09 to 0.15.[4] Studies by the Hadley Centre have investigated the relative (generally warming) effect of albedo change and (cooling) effect of carbon sequestration on planting forests. They found that new forests in tropical and midlatitude areas tended to cool; new forests in high latitudes (e.g. Siberia) were neutral or perhaps warming.[20]

Snow
Snow albedos can be as high as 0.9; this, however, is for the ideal example: fresh deep snow over a featureless landscape. Over Antarctica they average a little more than 0.8. If a marginally snow-covered area warms, snow tends to melt, lowering the albedo, and hence leading to more snowmelt (the ice-albedo positive feedback). Cryoconite, powdery windblown dust containing soot, sometimes reduces albedo on glaciers and ice sheets.[21]

Water
Water reflects light very differently from typical terrestrial materials. The reflectivity of a water surface is calculated using the Fresnel equations (see graph).

Albedo

122

At the scale of the wavelength of light even wavy water is always smooth so the light is reflected in a locally specular manner (not diffusely). The glint of light off water is a commonplace effect of this. At small angles of incident light, waviness results in reduced reflectivity because of the steepness of the reflectivity-vs.-incident-angle curve and a locally increased average incident angle.[22] Although the reflectivity of water is very low at low and medium angles of incident light, it increases tremendously at high angles of incident light such as occur on the illuminated side of the Earth near the Reflectivity of smooth water at 20 C (refractive index=1.333) terminator (early morning, late afternoon and near the poles). However, as mentioned above, waviness causes an appreciable reduction. Since the light specularly reflected from water does not usually reach the viewer, water is usually considered to have a very low albedo in spite of its high reflectivity at high angles of incident light. Note that white caps on waves look white (and have high albedo) because the water is foamed up, so there are many superimposed bubble surfaces which reflect, adding up their reflectivities. Fresh ‘black’ ice exhibits Fresnel reflection.

Clouds
Cloud albedo is an important factor in the global warming effect. Different types of clouds exhibit different reflectivity, theoretically ranging in albedo from a minimum of near 0 to a maximum approaching 0.8. "On any given day, about half of Earth is covered by clouds, which reflect more sunlight than land and water. Clouds keep Earth cool by reflecting sunlight, but they can also serve as blankets to trap warmth."[23] Albedo and climate in some areas are affected by artificial clouds, such as those created by the contrails of heavy commercial airliner traffic.[24] A study following the burning of the Kuwaiti oil fields during Iraqi occupation showed that temperatures under the burning oil fires were as much as 10oC colder than temperatures several miles away under clear skies.[25]

Aerosol effects
Aerosols (very fine particles/droplets in the atmosphere) have both direct and indirect effects on the Earth’s radiative balance. The direct (albedo) effect is generally to cool the planet; the indirect effect (the particles act as cloud condensation nuclei and thereby change cloud properties) is less certain.[26] As per [27] the effects are: • Aerosol direct effect. Aerosols directly scatter and absorb radiation. The scattering of radiation causes atmospheric cooling, whereas absorption can cause atmospheric warming. • Aerosol indirect effect. Aerosols modify the properties of clouds through a subset of the aerosol population called cloud condensation nuclei. Increased nuclei concentrations lead to increased cloud droplet number concentrations, which in turn leads to increased cloud albedo, increased light scattering and radiative cooling (first indirect effect), but also leads to reduced precipitation efficiency and increased lifetime of the cloud (second indirect effect).

Albedo

123

Black carbon
Another albedo-related effect on the climate is from black carbon particles. The size of this effect is difficult to quantify: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that the global mean radiative forcing for black carbon aerosols from fossil fuels is +0.2 W m−2, with a range +0.1 to +0.4 W m−2.[28]

Other types of albedo
Single scattering albedo is used to define scattering of electromagnetic waves on small particles. It depends on properties of the material (refractive index); the size of the particle or particles; and the wavelength of the incoming radiation. Albedo also refers to the white, spongy inner lining of a citrus fruit rind.[29] According to Dr. Renee M. Goodrich, associate professor of food science and human nutrition at the University of Florida, the albedo is rich in the soluble fiber pectin and contains vitamin C.

References
[1] Environmental Encyclopedia, 3rd ed., Thompson Gale, 2003, ISBN 0-7876-5486-8 [2] Pon, Brian (1999-06-30). "Pavement Albedo" (http:/ / eetd. lbl. gov/ HeatIsland/ Pavements/ Albedo/ ). Heat Island Group. . Retrieved 2007-08-27. [3] Alan K. Betts, John H. Ball (1997). "Albedo over the boreal forest" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 1997/ 96JD03876. shtml). Journal of Geophysical 102 (D24): 28,901–28,910. Bibcode 1997JGR...10228901B. doi:10.1029/96JD03876. . Retrieved 2007-08-27. [4] "The Climate System" (http:/ / www. ace. mmu. ac. uk/ Resources/ gcc/ 1-3-3. html). Manchester Metropolitan University. . Retrieved 2007-11-11. [5] Tom Markvart, Luis CastaŁżer (2003). Practical Handbook of Photovoltaics: Fundamentals and Applications. Elsevier. ISBN 1-85617-390-9. [6] Tetzlaff, G. (1983). Albedo of the Sahara. pp. 60–63. [7] Albedo - from Eric Weisstein's World of Physics (http:/ / scienceworld. wolfram. com/ physics/ Albedo. html) [8] Goode, P. R.; et al. (2001). "Earthshine Observations of the Earth’s Reflectance" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ journals/ ABS/ 2001/ 2000GL012580. shtml). Geophysical Research Letters 28 (9): 1671–1674. Bibcode 2001GeoRL..28.1671G. doi:10.1029/2000GL012580. . [9] "MODIS BRDF/Albedo Product: Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document, Version 5.0" (http:/ / modis. gsfc. nasa. gov/ data/ atbd/ atbd_mod09. pdf). . Retrieved 2009-06-02. [10] "Snowball Earth: Ice thickness on the tropical ocean" (http:/ / www. atmos. washington. edu/ ~sgw/ PAPERS/ 2002_Snowball. pdf). . Retrieved 2009-09-20. [11] "Effect of land albedo, CO2, orography, and oceanic heat transport on extreme climates" (http:/ / www. clim-past. net/ 2/ 31/ 2006/ cp-2-31-2006. pdf). . Retrieved 2009-09-20. [12] "Global climate and ocean circulation on an aquaplanet ocean-atmosphere general circulation model" (http:/ / www. mpimet. mpg. de/ fileadmin/ staff/ smithrobin/ IC_JClim-final. pdf). . Retrieved 2009-09-20. [13] Roman, M. O.; C.B. Schaaf, P. Lewis, F. Gao, G.P. Anderson, J.L. Privette, A.H. Strahler, C.E. Woodcock, and M. Barnsley (2010). "Assessing the Coupling between Surface Albedo derived from MODIS and the Fraction of Diffuse Skylight over Spatially-Characterized Landscapes". Remote Sensing of Environment 114: 738–760. doi:10.1016/j.rse.2009.11.014. [14] Wm. Robert Johnston (2008-09-17). "TNO/Centaur diameters and albedos" (http:/ / www. johnstonsarchive. net/ astro/ tnodiam. html). Johnston's Archive. . Retrieved 2008-10-17. [15] Wm. Robert Johnston (2003-06-28). "Asteroid albedos: graphs of data" (http:/ / www. johnstonsarchive. net/ astro/ astalbedo. html). Johnston's Archive. . Retrieved 2008-06-16. [16] Robert Roy Britt (2001-11-29). "Comet Borrelly Puzzle: Darkest Object in the Solar System" (http:/ / www. space. com/ scienceastronomy/ solarsystem/ borrelly_dark_011129. html). Space.com. . Retrieved 2008-10-26. [17] Medkeff, Jeff (2002). "Lunar Albedo" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20080523151225/ http:/ / jeff. medkeff. com/ astro/ lunar/ obs_tech/ albedo. htm). Archived from the original (http:/ / jeff. medkeff. com/ astro/ lunar/ obs_tech/ albedo. htm) on 23 May 2008. . Retrieved 5 July 2010 [18] Dan Bruton. "Conversion of Absolute Magnitude to Diameter for Minor Planets" (http:/ / www. physics. sfasu. edu/ astro/ asteroids/ sizemagnitude. html). Department of Physics & Astronomy (Stephen F. Austin State University). . Retrieved 2008-10-07. [19] Health and Safety: Be Cool! (August 1997) (http:/ / www. ranknfile-ue. org/ h& s0897. html) [20] Betts, R.A. (2000) Offset of the potential carbon sink from boreal forestation by decreases in surface albedo, Nature, Volume 408, Issue 6809, pp. 187-190. [21] "Changing Greenland - Melt Zone" (http:/ / ngm. nationalgeographic. com/ 2010/ 06/ melt-zone/ jenkins-text/ 3) page 3, of 4, article by Mark Jenkins in National Geographic June, 2010, accessed July 8, 2010

Albedo
[22] (http:/ / vih. freeshell. org/ pp/ 01-ONW-St. Petersburg/ Fresnel. pdf) [23] Baffled Scientists Say Less Sunlight Reaching Earth | LiveScience (http:/ / www. livescience. com/ environment/ 060124_earth_albedo. html) [24] http:/ / facstaff. uww. edu/ travisd/ pdf/ jetcontrailsrecentresearch. pdf [25] The Kuwait oil fires as seen by Landsat (http:/ / adsabs. harvard. edu/ abs/ 1992JGR. . . . 9714565C) [26] Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 231. htm#671) [27] DOMINICK V. SPRACKLEN, BORIS BONN, AND KENNETH S. CARSLAW. 2008. Boreal forests, aerosols and the impacts on clouds and climate. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. doi:10.1098/rsta.2008.0201. http:/ / homepages. see. leeds. ac. uk/ ~eardvs/ papers/ spracklen08c. pdf [28] Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 233. htm) [29] wordsmith.org

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External links
• • • • • www.albedo-project.org - Official Website of Albedo Project (http://www.albedo-project.org/) Albedo - Encyclopedia of Earth (http://www.eoearth.org/article/Albedo) NASA MODIS Terra BRDF/albedo product site (http://lpdaac.usgs.gov/modis/mod43b1.asp) NASA MODIS BRDF/albedo product site (http://www-modis.bu.edu/brdf/product.html) Surface albedo derived from Meteosat observations (http://www.eumetsat.int/Home/Main/Access_to_Data/ Meteosat_Meteorological_Products/Product_List/SP_1125489019643?l=en) • A discussion of Lunar albedos (http://jeff.medkeff.com/astro/lunar/obs_tech/albedo.htm)

Bond event
Bond events are North Atlantic climate fluctuations occurring every ≈1,470 ± 500 years throughout the Holocene. Eight such events have been identified, primarily from fluctuations in ice-rafted debris. Bond events may be the interglacial relatives of the glacial Dansgaard-Oeschger events, with a magnitude of perhaps 15-20% of the glacial-interglacial temperature change. The theory of 1,500-year climate cycles in the Holocene was postulated by Gerard C. Bond of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University, mainly based on petrologic tracers of drift ice in the North Atlantic.[1] [2] The existence of climatic changes, possibly on a quasi-1,500 year cycle, is well established for the last glacial period from ice cores. Less well established is the continuation of these cycles into the holocene. Bond et al. (1997) argue for a cyclicity close to 1470 ± 500 years in the North Atlantic region, and that their results imply a variation in Holocene climate in this region. In their view, many if not most of the Dansgaard-Oeschger events of the last ice age, conform to a 1,500-year pattern, as do some climate events of later eras, like the Little Ice Age, the 8.2 kiloyear event, and the start of the Younger Dryas. The North Atlantic ice-rafting events happen to correlate with most weak events of the Asian monsoon over the past 9,000 years,[3] [4] as well as with most aridification events in the Middle East.[5] Also, there is widespread evidence that a ≈1,500 yr climate oscillation caused changes in vegetation communities across all of North America.[6] For reasons that are unclear, the only Holocene Bond event that has a clear temperature signal in the Greenland ice cores is the 8.2 kyr event. The hypothesis holds that the 1,500-year cycle displays nonlinear behavior and stochastic resonance; not every instance of the pattern is a significant climate event, though some rise to major prominence in environmental history.[7] Causes and determining factors of the cycle are under study; researchers have focused attention on

Bond event variations in solar output, and "reorganizations of atmospheric circulation."[7] Bond events may also be correlated with the 1800 year lunar tidal cycle. [8]

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List of Bond events
Most Bond events do not have a clear climate signal; some correspond to periods of cooling, others are coincident with aridification in some regions. • ≈1,400 BP (Bond event 1) — roughly correlates with the Migration Period pessimum (450–900 AD) • ≈2,800 BP (Bond event 2) — roughly correlates with the Iron Age Cold Epoch (900–300 BC)[9] • ≈4,200 BP (Bond event 3) — correlates with the 4.2 kiloyear event (correlates also with the collapse of the Akkadian Empire and the end of the Egyptian Old Kingdom) • ≈5,900 BP (Bond event 4) — correlates with the 5.9 kiloyear event (correlates with the end of the Pre Pottery Neolithic B, and the arrival of nomadic pastoralists in the Middle East) • ≈8,100 BP (Bond event 5) — correlates with the 8.2 kiloyear event • ≈9,400 BP (Bond event 6) — correlates with the Erdalen event of glacier activity in Norway,[10] as well as with a cold event in China.[11] • ≈10,300 BP (Bond event 7) — unnamed event (correlates with the beginnings of grain agriculture in the Middle East) • ≈11,100 BP (Bond event 8) — coincides with the transition from the Younger Dryas to the boreal

References
[1] Bond, G.; et al. (1997). "A Pervasive Millennial-Scale Cycle in North Atlantic Holocene and Glacial Climates" (http:/ / rivernet. ncsu. edu/ courselocker/ PaleoClimate/ Bond et al. , 1997 Millenial Scale Holocene Change. pdf). Science 278 (5341): 1257–1266. doi:10.1126/science.278.5341.1257. . [2] Bond, G.; et al. (2001). "Persistent Solar Influence on North Atlantic Climate During the Holocene". Science 294 (5549): 2130–2136. doi:10.1126/science.1065680. PMID 11739949. [3] Gupta, Anil K.; Anderson, David M.; Overpeck, Jonathan T. (2003). "Abrupt changes in the Asian southwest monsoon during the Holocene and their links to the North Atlantic Ocean". Nature 421 (6921): 354–357. doi:10.1038/nature01340. PMID 12540924. [4] Yongjin Wang; et al. (2005). "The Holocene Asian Monsoon: Links to Solar Changes and North Atlantic Climate". Science 308 (5723): 854–857. doi:10.1126/science.1106296. PMID 15879216. [5] Parker, Adrian G.; et al. (2006). "A record of Holocene climate change from lake geochemical analyses in southeastern Arabia" (http:/ / www. gulfnexus. org/ articles/ geo/ 2006a Parker et al. pdf). Quaternary Research 66 (3): 465–476. doi:10.1016/j.yqres.2006.07.001. . [6] Viau, André E.; et al. (2002). "Widespread evidence of 1,500 yr climate variability in North America during the past 14 000 yr". Geology 30 (5): 455–458. doi:10.1130/0091-7613(2002)030<0455:WEOYCV>2.0.CO;2. [7] Cox, John D. (2005). Climate Crash: Abrupt Climate Change and What It Means for Our Future. Washington DC: Joseph Henry Press. pp. 150–155. ISBN 0309093120. [8] Keeling, Charles; Whorf, TP (2000). "The 1,800-Year Oceanic Tidal Cycle: A Possible Cause of Rapid Climate Change". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 97 (8): 3814–3819. doi:10.1073/pnas.070047197. JSTOR 122066. PMC 18099. PMID 10725399. [9] Swindles, Graeme T.; Plunkett, Gill; Roe, Helen M. (2007). "A delayed climatic response to solar forcing at 2800 cal. BP: multiproxy evidence from three Irish peatlands". The Holocene 17 (2): 177–182. doi:10.1177/0959683607075830. [10] Dahl, Svein Olaf; et al. (2002). "Timing, equilibrium-line altitudes and climatic implications of two early-Holocene glacier readvances during the Erdalen Event at Jostedalsbreen, western Norway". The Holocene 12 (1): 17–25. doi:10.1191/0959683602hl516rp. [11] Zhou Jing; Wang Sumin; Yang Guishan; Xiao Haifeng (2007). "Younger Dryas Event and Cold Events in Early-Mid Holocene: Record from the sediment of Erhai Lake" (http:/ / www. climatechange. cn/ qikan/ manage/ wenzhang/ 08. pdf). Advances in Climate Change Research 3 (Suppl.): 1673–1719. .

Glacial period

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Glacial period
A glacial period (or alternatively glacial or glaciation) is an interval of time (thousands of years) within an ice age that is marked by colder temperatures and glacier advances. Interglacials, on the other hand, are periods of warmer climate within an ice age. The last glacial period ended about 15,000 years ago;[1] The Holocene epoch is the current interglacial.

Quaternary ice age
Within the Quaternary glaciation (2.58 Ma to present), there have been a number of glacials and interglacials. In the British Isles the Pleistocene extent of the Quaternary ice age, has been subdivided into the following stages and superstages. • • • • • • • • Preludhamian Ludhamian Thurnian Antian Bramertonian Prepastonian Pastonian Beestonian (glacial)

• Cromerian • Anglian (glacial) • Hoxnian • Wolstonian (glacial) • Ipswichian • Devensian (glacial)

Glacial and interglacial cycles of the late Pleistocene epoch within the Quaternary glaciation, as represented by atmospheric CO2, measured from ice core samples going back 650,000 years. The stage names are part of the North American and the European Alpine subdivisions. The correlation between both subdivisions is tentative.

The Cromerian consists of multiple glacial and interglacial periods. Other stages, the Anglian and Hoxnian, consist either of single glacial or interglacial periods. This subdivision is valid for the British Isles and hence has a local significance. Other areas have different subdivisions that partly correlate with the British subdivision.

Last glacial period
The last glacial period was the most recent glacial period within the current ice age, occurring in the Pleistocene epoch, which began about 70,000 and ended about 15,000 years ago. The glaciations that occurred during this glacial period covered many areas of the Northern Hemisphere, and have different names, depending on their geographic distributions: Wisconsin (in North America), Devensian (in the British Isles), Midlandian (in Ireland), Würm (in the Alps), Weichsel (in northern central Europe) and Llanquihue in Chile. The glacial advance reached its maximum extent about 18,000 BP. In Europe, the ice sheet reached northern Germany.

Glacial period

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Next glacial period
Since orbital variations are predictable,[2] if one has a model that relates orbital variations to climate, it is possible to run such a model forward to "predict" future climate. Two caveats are necessary: that anthropogenic effects (global warming) are likely to exert a larger influence over the short term; and that the mechanism by which orbital forcing influences climate is not well understood. Work by Berger and Loutre suggests that the current warm climate may last another 50,000 years.[3]

References
[1] J. Severinghaus, E. Brook (1999). "Abrupt Climate Change at the End of the Last Glacial Period Inferred from Trapped Air in Polar Ice" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ short/ 286/ 5441/ 930). Science 286 (5441): 930–4. doi:10.1126/science.286.5441.930. PMID 10542141. . [2] F. Varadi, B. Runnegar, M. Ghil (2003). "Successive Refinements in Long-Term Integrations of Planetary Orbits" (http:/ / astrobiology. ucla. edu/ OTHER/ SSO/ SolarSysInt. pdf). The Astrophysical Journal 592: 620–630. Bibcode 2003ApJ...592..620V. doi:10.1086/375560. . [3] Berger A, Loutre MF (2002). "Climate: An exceptionally long interglacial ahead?". Science 297 (5585): 1287–8. doi:10.1126/science.1076120. PMID 12193773.

Global cooling
Global cooling was a conjecture during the 1970s of imminent cooling of the Earth's surface and atmosphere along with a posited commencement of glaciation. This hypothesis had mixed support in the scientific community, but gained temporary popular attention due to a combination of press reports that did not accurately reflect the scientific understanding of ice age cycles, and a slight downward trend of temperatures from the 1940s to the early 1970s. In contrast to the global cooling conjecture, the current scientific opinion on climate change is that the Earth has not durably cooled, but undergone global warming throughout the twentieth century.[1]

Mean temperature anomalies during the period 1965 to 1975 with respect to the average temperatures from 1937 to 1946. This dataset was not available at the time.

Introduction: general awareness and concern
In the 1970s there was increasing awareness that estimates of global temperatures showed cooling since 1945. Of those scientific papers considering climate trends over the 21st century, only 10% inclined towards future cooling, while most papers predicted future warming.[2] The general public had little awareness of carbon dioxide's effects on climate, but Science News in May 1959 forecast a 25% increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide in the 150 years from 1850 to 2000, with a consequent warming trend.[3] The actual increase in this period was 29%. Paul R. Ehrlich mentioned climate change from greenhouse gases in 1968.[4] By the time the idea of global cooling reached the public press in the mid-1970s temperatures had stopped falling, and there was concern in the climatological community about carbon dioxide's warming effects.[5] In response to such reports, the World Meteorological Organization issued a warning in June 1976 that a very significant warming of global climate was probable.[6] Currently there are some concerns about the possible cooling effects of a slowdown or shutdown of thermohaline circulation, which might be provoked by an increase of fresh water mixing into the North Atlantic due to glacial melting. The probability of this occurring is generally considered to be very low, and the IPCC notes, "even in models where the THC weakens, there is still a warming over Europe. For example, in all AOGCM integrations

Global cooling where the radiative forcing is increasing, the sign of the temperature change over north-west Europe is positive."[7]

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Physical mechanisms
The cooling period is well reproduced by current (1999 on) global climate models (GCMs) that include the physical effects of sulphate aerosols, and there is now general agreement that aerosol effects were the dominant cause of the mid-20th century cooling. However, at the time there were two physical mechanisms that were most frequently advanced to cause cooling: aerosols and orbital forcing.

Aerosols
Human activity — mostly as a by-product of fossil fuel combustion, partly by land use changes — increases the number of tiny particles (aerosols) in the atmosphere. These have a direct effect: they effectively increase the planetary albedo, thus cooling the planet by reducing the solar radiation reaching the surface; and an indirect effect: they affect the properties of clouds by acting as cloud condensation nuclei.[8] In the early 1970s some speculated that this cooling effect might dominate over the warming effect of the CO2 release: see discussion of Rasool and Schneider (1971), below. As a result of observations and a switch to cleaner fuel burning, this no longer seems likely; current scientific work indicates that global warming is far more likely. Although the temperature drops foreseen by this mechanism have now been discarded in light of better theory and the observed warming, aerosols are believed to have contributed a cooling tendency (outweighted by increases in greenhouse gases) and also have contributed to "Global Dimming."

Orbital forcing
Orbital forcing refers to the slow, cyclical changes in the tilt of Earth's axis and shape of its orbit. These cycles alter the total amount of sunlight reaching the earth by a small amount and affect the timing and intensity of the seasons. This mechanism is believed to be responsible for the timing of the ice age cycles, and understanding of the mechanism was increasing rapidly in the mid-1970s. The seminal paper of Hays, Imbrie and Shackleton Variations in the Earth's Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages qualified its predictions with "forecasts must be qualified in two ways. First, they apply only to the CO2, temperature, and dust concentration natural component of future climatic trends - and not to anthropogenic measured by Petit et al. from Vostok ice core at Antarctica. effects such as those due to the burning of fossil fuels. Second, they describe only the long-term trends, because they are linked to orbital variations with periods of 20,000 years and longer. Climatic oscillations at higher frequencies are not predicted... the results indicate that the long-term trend over the next 20,000 years is towards extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation and cooler climate".[9] The idea that ice ages cycles were predictable appears to have become conflated with the idea that another one was due "soon" - perhaps because much of this study was done by geologists, who are accustomed to dealing with very long time scales and use "soon" to refer to periods of thousands of years. A strict application of the Milankovitch theory does not allow the prediction of a "rapid" ice age onset (i.e., less than a century or two) since the fastest orbital period is about 20,000 years. Some creative ways around this were found, notably one championed by Nigel Calder under the name of "snowblitz", but these ideas did not gain wide acceptance. It is common to see it asserted that the length of the current interglacial temperature peak is similar to the length of the preceding interglacial peak (Sangamon/Eem), and from this conclude that we might be nearing the end of this warm period. This conclusion is supported by the fact that the lengths of previous interglacials were regular; see

Global cooling appended figure. Petit et al. note that "Interglacials 5.5 and 9.3 are different from the Holocene, but similar to each other in duration, shape and amplitude."[10] During each of these two events, there is a warm period of 4000 years followed by a relatively rapid cooling. As an objection, the future orbital variations will not closely resemble those of the past.

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Concern in the mid-twentieth century
Pre-1970s
At a conference on climate change held in Boulder, Colorado in 1965, evidence supporting Milankovitch cycles triggered speculation on how the calculated small changes in sunlight might somehow trigger ice ages. In 1966 Cesare Emiliani predicted that "a new glaciation will begin within a few thousand years." In his 1968 book The Population Bomb, Paul R. Ehrlich wrote "The greenhouse effect is being enhanced now by the greatly increased level of carbon dioxide... [this] is being countered by low-level clouds generated by contrails, dust, and other contaminants... At the moment we cannot predict what the overall climatic results will be of our using the atmosphere as a garbage dump."[4]

1970s awareness

The temperature record as seen in 1975; compare with the next figure.

Instrumental record of global average temperatures.

Concern peaked in the early 1970s, partly because of the cooling trend then apparent (a cooling period began in 1945, and two decades of a cooling trend suggested a trough had been reached after several decades of warming), and partly because much less was then known about world climate and causes of ice ages. Although there was a cooling trend then, climate scientists were aware that predictions based on this trend were not possible - because the trend was poorly studied and not understood (for example see reference[11] ). However in the popular press the possibility of cooling was reported generally without the caveats present in the scientific reports. In the 1970s the compilation of records to produce hemispheric, or global, temperature records had just begun. A history of the discovery of global warming states that: While neither scientists nor the public could be sure in the 1970s whether the world was warming or cooling, people were increasingly inclined to believe that global climate was on the move, and in no small way.[12] In 1972 Emiliani warned "Man's activity may either precipitate this new ice age or lead to substantial or even total melting of the ice caps..."[13] By 1972 a group of glacial-epoch experts at a conference agreed that "the natural end of our warm epoch is undoubtedly near";[14] but the volume of Quaternary Research reporting on the meeting said that "the basic conclusion to be drawn from the discussions in this section is that the knowledge necessary for

Global cooling understanding the mechanism of climate change is still lamentably inadequate". Unless there were impacts from future human activity, they thought that serious cooling "must be expected within the next few millennia or even centuries"; but many other scientists doubted these conclusions.[15] [16] In 1972, George Kukla and Robert Matthews, in a Science write-up of a conference, asked when and how the current integlacial would end; concluding that "Global cooling and related rapid changes of environment, substantially exceeding the fluctuations experienced by man in historical times, must be expected within the next few millennia or even centuries."[17]

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1970 SCEP report
The 1970 "Study of Critical Environmental Problems"[18] reported the possibility of warming from increased carbon dioxide, but no concerns about cooling, setting a lower bound on the beginning of interest in "global cooling".

1971 paper on warming and cooling factors
There was a paper by S. Ichtiaque Rasool and Stephen H. Schneider, published in the journal Science in July 1971. Titled "Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate," the paper examined the possible future effects of two types of human environmental emissions: 1. greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide; 2. particulate pollution such as smog, some of which remains suspended in the atmosphere in aerosol form for years. Greenhouse gases were regarded as likely factors that could promote global warming, while particulate pollution blocks sunlight and contributes to cooling. In their paper, Rasool and Schneider theorized that aerosols were more likely to contribute to climate change in the foreseeable future than greenhouse gases, stating that quadrupling aerosols could decrease the mean surface temperature (of Earth) by as much as 3.5 C. If sustained over a period of several years, they calculated, such a temperature decrease could be sufficient to trigger an ice age.

1972 and 1974 National Science Board
The National Science Board's Patterns and Perspectives in Environmental Science report of 1972 discussed the cyclical behavior of climate, and the understanding at the time that the planet was entering a phase of cooling after a warm period. "Judging from the record of the past interglacial ages, the present time of high temperatures should be drawing to an end, to be followed by a long period of considerably colder temperatures leading into the next glacial age some 20,000 years from now."[19] But it also continued; "However, it is possible, or even likely, that human interference has already altered the environment so much that the climatic pattern of the near future will follow a different path."[19] The Board's report of 1974, Science And The Challenges Ahead , continued on this theme. "During the last 20-30 years, world temperature has fallen, irregularly at first but more sharply over the last decade."[20] However discussion of cyclic glacial periods does not feature in this report. Instead it is the role of man that is central to the report's analysis. "The cause of the cooling trend is not known with certainty. But there is increasing concern that man himself may be implicated, not only in the recent cooling trend but also in the warming temperatures over the last century".[20] The report can not conclude whether carbon dioxide in warming, or agricultural and industrial pollution in cooling, are factors in the recent climatic changes, noting; "Before such questions as these can be resolved, major advances must be made in understanding the chemistry and physics of the atmosphere and oceans, and in measuring and tracing particulates through the system."[21]

Global cooling

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1975 National Academy of Sciences report
There also was a study by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences about issues that needed more research.[22] This heightened interest in the fact that climate can change. The 1975 NAS report titled "Understanding Climate Change: A Program for Action" did not make predictions, stating in fact that "we do not have a good quantitative understanding of our climate machine and what determines its course. Without the fundamental understanding, it does not seem possible to predict climate." Its "program for action" consisted simply of a call for further research, because "it is only through the use of adequately calibrated numerical models that we can hope to acquire the information necessary for a quantitative assessment of the climatic impacts." The report further stated: The climates of the earth have always been changing, and they will doubtless continue to do so in the future. How large these future changes will be, and where and how rapidly they will occur, we do not know.. This is not consistent with claims like those of Science & Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) that "the NAS "experts" exhibited ... hysterical fears" in the 1975 report.[23]

1974 Time Magazine article
While these discussions were ongoing in scientific circles, other accounts appeared in the popular media. In their June 24, 1974 issue, Time presented an article titled Another Ice Age? that noted "the atmosphere has been growing gradually cooler for the past three decades" but noted that "Some scientists... think that the cooling trend may be only temporary" [24]

1975 Newsweek article
An April 28, 1975 article in Newsweek magazine was titled [25] "The Cooling World", it pointed to "ominous signs that the Earth's weather patterns have begun to change" and pointed to "a drop of half a degree [Fahrenheit] in average ground temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere between 1945 and 1968." The article claimed "The evidence in support of these predictions [of global cooling] has now begun to accumulate so massively that meteorologists are hard-pressed to keep up with it." The Newsweek article did not state the cause of cooling; it stated that "what causes the onset of major and minor ice ages remains a mystery" and cited the NAS conclusion that "not only are the basic scientific questions largely unanswered, but in many cases we do not yet know enough to pose the key questions." The article mentioned the alternative solutions of "melting the Arctic ice cap by covering it with black soot or diverting Arctic rivers" but conceded these were not feasible. The Newsweek article concluded by criticizing government leaders: "But the scientists see few signs that government leaders anywhere are even prepared to take the simple measures of stockpiling food or of introducing the variables of climatic uncertainty into economic projections of future food supplies...The longer the planners (politicians) delay, the more difficult will they find it to cope with climatic change once the results become grim reality." The article emphasized sensational and largely unsourced consequences - "resulting famines could be catastrophic", "drought and desolation," "the most devastating outbreak of tornadoes ever recorded", "droughts, floods, extended dry spells, long freezes, delayed monsoons," "impossible for starving peoples to migrate," "the present decline has taken the planet about a sixth of the way toward the Ice Age."[25] On October 23, 2006, Newsweek issued a correction, over 31 years after the original article, stating that it had been "so spectacularly wrong about the near-term future" (though editor Jerry Adler claimed that 'the story wasn't "wrong" in the journalistic sense of "inaccurate."').[26]

Global cooling

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Other 1970s sources
In the late 1970s there were several popular books on the topic, including The Weather Conspiracy: The Coming of the New Ice Age.[27]

1979 WMO conference
Later in the decade, at a WMO conference in 1979, F K Hare reported that: Fig 8 shows [...] 1938 the warmest year. They [temperatures] have since fallen by about 0.4 °C. At the end there is a suggestion that the fall ceased in about 1964, and may even have reversed. Figure 9 challenges the view that the fall of temperature has ceased [...] the weight of evidence clearly favours cooling to the present date [...] The striking point, however, is that interannual variability of world temperatures is much larger than the trend [...] it is difficult to detect a genuine trend [...] It is questionable, moreover, whether the trend is truly global. Calculated variations in the 5-year mean air temperature over the southern hemisphere chiefly with respect to land areas show that temperatures generally rose between 1943 and 1975. Since the 1960-64 period this rise has been strong [...] the scattered SH data fail to support a hypothesis of continued global cooling since 1938. [p 65][28]

More recent climate cooling predictions
1980s
Concerns about nuclear winter arose in the early 1980s from several reports. Similar speculations have appeared over effects due to catastrophes such as asteroid impacts and massive volcanic eruptions. A prediction that massive oil well fires in Kuwait would cause significant effects on climate was quite incorrect.

1990s
The idea of a global cooling as the result of global warming was already proposed in the 1990s.[29] In 2003, the Office of Net Assessment at the United States Department of Defense was commissioned to produce a study on the likely and potential effects of a modern climate change, especially of a shutdown of thermohaline circulation.[30] The study, conducted under ONA head Andrew Marshall, modelled its prospective climate change on the 8.2 kiloyear event, precisely because it was the middle alternative between the Younger Dryas and the Little Ice Age. The study caused controversy in the media when it was made public in 2004.[31] [32] However, scientists acknowledge that “abrupt climate change initiated by GIS melting is not a realistic scenario for the 21st century.”.[33]

Present level of knowledge
Currently, the concern that cooler temperatures would continue, and perhaps at a faster rate, has been observed to be incorrect by the IPCC.[7] More has to be learned about climate, but the growing records have shown that the cooling concerns of 1975 have not been borne out. As for the prospects of the end of the current interglacial (again, valid only in the absence of human perturbations): it isn't true that interglacials have previously only lasted about 10,000 years; and Milankovitch-type calculations indicate that the present interglacial would probably continue for tens of thousands of years naturally.[34] Other estimates (Loutre and Berger, based on orbital calculations) put the unperturbed length of the present interglacial at 50,000 years.[35] Berger (EGU 2005 presentation) believes that the present CO2 perturbation will last long enough to suppress the next glacial cycle entirely. As the NAS report indicates, scientific knowledge regarding climate change was more uncertain than it is today. At the time that Rasool and Schneider wrote their 1971 paper, climatologists had not yet recognized the significance of

Global cooling greenhouse gases other than water vapor and carbon dioxide, such as methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons.[36] Early in that decade, carbon dioxide was the only widely studied human-influenced greenhouse gas. The attention drawn to atmospheric gases in the 1970s stimulated many discoveries in future decades. As the temperature pattern changed, global cooling was of waning interest by 1979.[28]

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References
[1] "Summary for Policymakers" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg1/ ar4-wg1-spm. pdf) (PDF). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2007-02-05. . Retrieved 2007-02-02. [2] Peterson, Thomas & Connolley, William & Fleck, John (September 2008). The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus (http:/ / scienceblogs. com/ stoat/ Myth-1970-Global-Cooling-BAMS-2008. pdf). American Meteorological Society. doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1. . [3] "Science Past from the issue of May 9, 1959" (http:/ / www. sciencenews. org/ view/ generic/ id/ 43155/ title/ Science_Past_from_the_issue_of_May_9,_1959). Science News: p. 30. May 9, 2009. . [4] Erlich, Paul. "Paul Erhlich on climate change in 1968" (http:/ / backseatdriving. blogspot. com/ 2005_07_01_backseatdriving_archive. html#112148592454360291). Backseat driving. . Retrieved November 17, 2005. [5] Schneider SH (November 1972). "Atmospheric particles and climate: can we evaluate the impact of mans activities?". Quaternary Research 2 (3): 425–35. doi:10.1016/0033-5894(72)90068-3. [ Precis (http:/ / www. wmconnolley. org. uk/ sci/ iceage/ quat_res_1972. html#schneider) Lay summary]. [6] World's temperature likely to rise; The Times; 22 June 1976; pg 9; col A [7] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. "Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 357. htm). . Retrieved November 17, 2005. [8] Rasool, S.I.; Schneider, S.H. (1971). "Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate". Science 173 (3992): 138. doi:10.1126/science.173.3992.138. PMID 17739641. [9] Hays, J.D.; Imbrie, J.; Shackleton, N.J. (1976). "Variations in the Earth's Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages". Science 194 (4270): 1121. doi:10.1126/science.194.4270.1121. PMID 17790893. [10] Petit, J.R., et al. (1999). "Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica". Nature 399 (6735): 429–436. doi:10.1038/20859. [11] Mason, B. J.. "QJRMS, 1976, p 473 (Symons Memorial Lecture)" (http:/ / www. wmconnolley. org. uk/ sci/ iceage/ mason. 1976. html). Was an imminent Ice Age predicted in the '70s? No. . Retrieved November 17, 2005. [12] Weart, Spencer. "The Modern Temperature Trend" (http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ 20ctrend. htm#L_0338). The Discovery of Global Warming. . Retrieved November 17, 2005. [13] Emiliani, Cesare (November 1972). "Quaternary hypsithermals". Quaternary Research 2 (3): 270–3. doi:10.1016/0033-5894(72)90047-6. [14] Past Climate Cycles: Ice Age Speculations (http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ cycles. htm#N_29_) [15] Weart, Spencer. "Past Cycles: Ice Age Speculations" (http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ cycles. htm). The Discovery of Global Warming. . Retrieved November 17, 2005. [16] Kukla GJ, Matthews RK, Mitchell JM (November 1972). "Guest editorial: The end of the present interglacial". Quaternary Research 2 (3): 261–9. doi:10.1016/0033-5894(72)90046-4. [ Was an imminent Ice Age predicted in the '70s? No (http:/ / www. wmconnolley. org. uk/ sci/ iceage/ quat_res_1972. html) Lay summary]. [17] Kukla, G.J.; Matthews, R.K. (1972). "When Will the Present Interglacial End?". Science 178 (4057): 190–202. doi:10.1126/science.178.4057.190. PMID 17789488. [18] SCEP. "The 1970 SCEP report" (http:/ / www. wmconnolley. org. uk/ sci/ iceage/ scep-1970. html). Was an imminent Ice Age predicted in the '70s? No. . Retrieved November 17, 2005. [19] Patterns and Perspectives in Environmental Science (Hardcover) (http:/ / www. archive. org/ details/ patternsperspect00nati). Report of the National Science Board. Government Printing Office. 1972. pp. 55. . Retrieved July 15, 2008. [20] Science and the challenges ahead : report of the National Science Board (http:/ / www. archive. org/ details/ sciencechallenge00nati). Report of the National Science Board. Government Printing Office. 1974. pp. 24. . Retrieved July 18, 2008. [21] Science and the challenges ahead : report of the National Science Board (http:/ / www. archive. org/ details/ sciencechallenge00nati). Report of the National Science Board. Government Printing Office. 1974. pp. 25. . Retrieved July 18, 2008. [22] U. S. National Academy of Sciences. "The 1975 US National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council Report" (http:/ / www. wmconnolley. org. uk/ sci/ iceage/ nas-1975. html). Was an imminent Ice Age predicted in the '70s? No. . Retrieved November 17, 2005. [23] Singer, S. Fred. "Scientists add to heat over global warming" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20051119045242/ http:/ / sepp. org/ glwarm/ sciaddheat. html). Archived from the original (http:/ / sepp. org/ glwarm/ sciaddheat. html) on November 19, 2005. . Retrieved November 19, 2005. [24] "Science: Another Ice Age?" (http:/ / www. time. com/ time/ magazine/ article/ 0,9171,944914,00. html). Time. June 24, 1974. . [25] Peter Gwynne (April 28, 1975). "The Cooling World". Newsweek. [26] Jerry Adler (October 23, 2006). "Remember Global Cooling?" (http:/ / www. newsweek. com/ id/ 72481). Newsweek. .

Global cooling
[27] Schneider, Stephen (December 29, 1977). "Against instant books" (http:/ / stephenschneider. stanford. edu/ Publications/ PDF_Papers/ Schneider1977. pdf). Nature 270 (22): 650. doi:10.1038/270650a0. . [28] "World Climate Conference 1979" (http:/ / www. wmconnolley. org. uk/ sci/ iceage/ wcc-1979. html). Was an imminent Ice Age predicted in the '70s? No. . Retrieved November 17, 2005. [29] Calvin, William H. (1998). "The great climate flip-flop" (http:/ / WilliamCalvin. com/ 1990s/ 1998AtlanticClimate. htm). The Atlantic Monthly 281 (1): 47–64. . [30] Schwartz, Peter; Randall, Doug (October 2003). An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security (http:/ / www. grist. org/ pdf/ AbruptClimateChange2003. pdf). . [31] Stripp, David (February 9, 2004). "The Pentagon's Weather Nightmare" (http:/ / money. cnn. com/ magazines/ fortune/ fortune_archive/ 2004/ 02/ 09/ 360120/ index. htm). Fortune. . [32] Townsend, Mark; Harris, Paul (2004-02-22). "Now the Pentagon tells Bush: climate change will destroy us" (http:/ / www. guardian. co. uk/ environment/ 2004/ feb/ 22/ usnews. theobserver). The Observer (London). . [33] Jungclaus, Johann H.; et al. (2006). "Will Greenland melting halt the thermohaline circulation?". Geophysical Research Letters 33: L17708. doi:10.1029/2006GL026815. [34] EPICA community members; Barbante, Carlo; Barnes, Piers R. F.; Marc Barnola, Jean; Bigler, Matthias; Castellano, Emiliano; Cattani, Olivier; Chappellaz, Jerome et al. (June 10, 2004). "Eight glacial cycles from an Antarctic ice core". Nature 429 (6992): 623–8. doi:10.1038/nature02599. PMID 15190344. [35] Berger, A.; Loutre, M. F. (2002). "An Exceptionally Long Interglacial Ahead?". Science 297 (5585): 1287–8. doi:10.1126/science.1076120. PMID 12193773. [36] Weart, Spencer. "Other Greenhouse Gases" (http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ othergas. htm). The Discovery of Global Warming. . Retrieved November 17, 2005.

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• Carslaw, K. S.. "The Climate Record: The Last Several Centuries and Last Several Decades. Is the Climate Stable?" (http://www.env.leeds.ac.uk/envi2150/oldnotes/lecture7/lecture7.html). ENVI2150 Climate Change: Scientific Issues. Retrieved November 17, 2005. • unknown. "History of Continental Drift - Before Wegener" (http://www.bbm.me.uk/portsdown/ PH_061_History_a.htm). Retrieved November 17, 2005. • http://tvnews.vanderbilt.edu/program.pl?ID=52903 Vanderbilt Television News Archive

External links
• Details historical presentation of Global Cooling in the popular media (http://www.businessandmedia.org/ specialreports/2006/fireandice/fireandice.asp) • Discussion and quotes from various papers about the "1970s prediction of an imminent ice age" (http://www. wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/) • SCOPE 13 - The Global Carbon Cycle (http://www.icsu-scope.org/downloadpubs/scope13/foreword.html), SCOPE, 1976. • SCOPE 27 - Climate Impact Assessment (http://www.icsu-scope.org/downloadpubs/scope27/preface.html), 1984. • "Another Ice Age?" (http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,944914,00.html). TIME. 1974-06-24. • Chambers FM, Brain SA (2002). "Paradigm shifts in late-Holocene climatology?" (http://hol.sagepub.com/cgi/ content/abstract/12/2/239). The Holocene 12 (2): 239–249. doi:10.1191/0959683602hl540fa. • http://www.saveportland.com/Climate/index.html - some newspaper scans • http://www.climatemonitor.it/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/1974.pdf - CIA report from 1974

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Atlantic multidecadal oscillation
The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is a mode of variability occurring in the North Atlantic Ocean and which has its principal expression in the sea surface temperature (SST) field. While there is some support for this mode in models and in historical observations, controversy exists with regard to its amplitude, and in particular, the attribution of sea surface temperature change to natural or anthropogenic causes, especially in tropical Atlantic areas important for hurricane development.

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Timeseries, 1856–2009

Definition
The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) was identified by Schlesinger and Ramankutty in 1994.[1] The AMO signal is usually defined from the patterns of SST variability in the North Atlantic once any linear trend has been removed. This detrending is intended to remove the influence of greenhouse gas-induced global warming from the analysis. However, if the global warming signal is significantly non-linear in time (i.e. not just a smooth increase), variations in the forced signal will leak into the AMO definition. Consequently, correlations with the AMO index may alias effects of global warming.

Mechanisms
In models, AMO-like variability is associated with small changes in the North Atlantic branch of the Thermohaline Circulation, however historical oceanic observations are not sufficient to associate the derived AMO index to present day circulation anomalies.

Climate impacts worldwide
The AMO index is correlated to air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere, in particular, North America and Europe such as North Eastern Brazilian and African Sahel rainfall and North American and European summer climate. It is also associated with changes in the frequency of North American droughts and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes. It alternately obscures and exaggerates the global increase in temperatures due to human-induced global warming [2] . Recent research suggests that the AMO is related to the past occurrence of major droughts in the US Midwest and the Southwest. When the AMO is in its warm phase, these droughts tend to be more frequent or prolonged. Two of the most severe droughts of the 20th century occurred during the positive AMO between 1925 and 1965: The Dust Bowl of the 1930s and the 1950s drought. Florida and the Pacific Northwest tend to be the opposite—warm AMO, more rainfall. Climate models suggest that a warm phase of the AMO strengthens the summer rainfall over India and Sahel and the North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity.[3] Paleoclimatologic studies have confirmed this pattern—increased rainfall in AMO warmphase, decreased in cold phase—for the Sahel over the past 3,000 years.[4]

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Relation to Atlantic hurricanes
In viewing actual data on a short time horizon, sparse experience would suggest the frequency of major hurricanes is not strongly correlated with the AMO. During warm phases of the AMO, the number of minor hurricanes (category 1 and 2) saw a modest increase.[5] With full consideration of meteorological science, the number of tropical storms that can mature into severe hurricanes is much greater during warm phases of the AMO than during cool phases, at least twice as many; the AMO is reflected in the frequency Atlantic basin cyclone intensity by Accumulated of severe Atlantic hurricanes.[2] The hurricane activity index is found cyclone energy, timeseries 1895-2007 to be highly correlated with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation.[5] If there is an increase in hurricane activity connected to global warming, it is currently obscured by the AMO quasi-periodic cycle.[5] The AMO alternately obscures and exaggerates the global increase in temperatures due to human-induced global warming.[2] Based on the typical duration of negative and positive phases of the AMO, the current warm regime is expected to persist at least until 2015 and possibly as late as 2035. Enfield et al. assume a peak around 2020.[6]

Florida rainfall
The AMO has a strong effect on Florida rainfall. Rainfall in central and south Florida becomes more plentiful when the Atlantic is in its warm phase and droughts and wildfires are more frequent in the cool phase. As a result of these variations, the inflow to Lake Okeechobee — the reservoir for South Florida’s water supply — changes by as much as 40% between AMO extremes. In northern Florida the relationship begins to reverse — less rainfall when the Atlantic is warm.

Periodicity and prediction of AMO shifts
There are only about 130–150 years of data based on instrument data which are too few samples for conventional statistical approaches. With aid of multi –century proxy reconstruction, a longer period of 424 years was used by Enfield and Cid–Serrano as an illustration of an approach as described in their paper called "The Probabilistic Projection of Climate Risk".[7] Their histogram of zero crossing intervals from a set of five re-sampled and smoothed version of Gray et al (2004) index together with the Maximum Likelihood Estimate gamma distribution fit to the histogram, showed that the largest frequency of regime interval was around 10–20 year. The cumulative probability for all intervals 20 years or less was about 70% [8] There is no demonstrated predictability for when the AMO will switch, in any deterministic sense. Computer models, such as those that predict El Niño, are far from being able to do this. Enfield and colleagues have calculated the probability that a change in the AMO will occur within a given future time frame, assuming that historical variability persists. Probabilistic projections [9] of this kind may prove to be useful for long-term planning in climate sensitive applications, such as water management. Assuming that the AMO continues with its quasi-cycle of roughly 70 years, the peak of the current warm phase would be expected in c. 2020,[10] or based on its 50–90 year quasi-cycle, between 2000 and 2040 (after peaks in c. 1880 and c. 1950).[6]

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References
[1] Schlesinger, M. E. (1994). "An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65-70 years". Nature 367 (6465): 723–726. Bibcode 1994Natur.367..723S. doi:10.1038/367723a0. [2] "National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Frequently Asked Questions about the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation" (http:/ / www. aoml. noaa. gov/ phod/ amo_faq. php). [3] Zhang, R.; Delworth, T. L. (2006). "Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes". Geophys. Res. Lett. 33: L17712. doi:10.1029/2006GL026267. [4] Shanahan, T. M.; et al. (2009). "Atlantic Forcing of Persistent Drought in West Africa". Science 324 (5925): 377–380. doi:10.1126/science.1166352. PMID 19372429. [5] Chylek, P.; Lesins, G. (2008). "Multidecadal variability of Atlantic hurricane activity: 1851–2007". Journal of Geophysical Research 113: D22106. doi:10.1029/2008JD010036 [6] Enfield, David B.; Cid-Serrano, Luis (2010). "Secular and multidecadal warmings in the North Atlantic and their relationships with major hurricane activity". International Journal of Climatology 30 (2): 174–184. doi:10.1002/joc.1881 [7] http:/ / www. usclivar. org/ Newsletter/ Variations_V3N3/ Enfield. pdf [8] For additional comments and citations see AMO, The Key Global Climate Indicator (http:/ / icecap. us/ images/ uploads/ amoarticlel. pdf). [9] http:/ / www. aoml. noaa. gov/ phod/ d2m_shift/ index. php [10] Curry, Judith A. (2008). "Potential Increased Hurricane Activity in a Greenhouse Warmed World". In MacCracken, Michael C.; Moore, Frances; Topping, John C.. Sudden and disruptive climate change. London: Earthscan. pp. 29–38. ISBN 1844074781. "Assuming that the AMO continues with a 70-year periodicity, the peak of the next cycle would be expected in 2020 (70 years after the previous 1950 peak)."

Further reading
• Andronova, N. G.; Schlesinger, M. E. (2000). "Causes of global temperature changes during the 19th and 20th centuries" (http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2000/2000GL006109.shtml). Geophys. Res. Lett. 27: 2137–2140. doi:10.1029/2000GL006109. • Delworth, T. L.; Mann, M. E. (2000). "Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere". Climate Dynamics 16: 661–676. doi:10.1007/s003820000075. • Enfield, D. B.; Mestas-Nunez, A. M.; Trimble, P. J. (2001). "The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and its relationship to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S." (http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2001/ 2000GL012745.shtml). Geophys. Res. Lett. 28: 2077–2080. doi:10.1029/2000GL012745. • Goldenberg, S. B.; et al. (2001). "The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: Causes and implications". Science 293: 474–479. doi:10.1126/science.1060040. PMID 11463911. • Gray, S. T.; et al. (2004). "A tree-ring based reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation since 1567 A.D.". Geophys. Res. Lett. 31: L12205. doi:10.1029/2004GL019932. • Hetzinger, Steffen; et al. (2008). "Caribbean coral tracks Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and past hurricane activity". Geology 36 (1): 11–14. doi:10.1130/G24321A.1. • Kerr, R. A. (2000). "A North Atlantic climate pacemaker for the centuries". Science 288 (5473): 1984–1986. doi:10.1126/science.288.5473.1984. PMID 17835110. • Kerr, R. A. (2005). "Atlantic climate pacemaker for millennia past, decades hence?". Science 309 (5731): 41–43. doi:10.1126/science.309.5731.41. • Knight, J. R. (2005). "A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate". Geophys. Res. Lett. 32: L20708. doi:10.1029/2005GL024233. • McCabe, G. J., G. J.; Palecki, M. A.; Betancourt, J. L. (2004). "Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States". PNAS 101: 4136–4141. doi:10.1073/pnas.0306738101. PMID 15016919. • Sutton, R. T.; Hodson, L. R. (2005). "Atlantic forcing of North American and European summer climate". Science 309: 115–118. doi:10.1126/science.1109496. PMID 15994552. • Knight, J. R.; C. K. Folland, and A. A. Scaife (2006). "Climate impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation". Geophys. Res. Lett. 33: L17706. doi:10.1029/2006GL026242. • "Climate change: the next ten years" (http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/mg19926691. 500-climate-change-the-next-ten-years.html) by Fred Pearce and Michael Le Page, New Scientist, 13 Aug. 2008,

Atlantic multidecadal oscillation pp. 26–30.

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External links
• Frequently asked questions about the AMO (http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/amo_faq.php) • Probabilistic projection of future AMO regime shifts (http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/d2m_shift/index. php) • AMO Data from 1856 - Present (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/AMO/)

El Niño-Southern Oscillation
El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, is a quasiperiodic climate pattern that occurs across the tropical Pacific Ocean with on average five year intervals. It is characterized by variations in the temperature of the surface of the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean—warming or cooling known as El Niño and La Niña respectively—and air surface pressure in the tropical western Pacific—the Southern Oscillation. The two variations are coupled: the warm oceanic phase, El Niño, accompanies high air surface pressure in the western Pacific, while the cold phase, La Niña, accompanies low air surface pressure in the western Pacific.[2] [3] Mechanisms that cause the oscillation remain under study. ENSO causes extreme weather (such as floods and droughts) in many regions of the world. Developing countries dependent upon The 1997 El Niño observed by TOPEX/Poseidon. The white areas off the tropical coasts of South and North agriculture and fishing, particularly those bordering the Pacific [1] America indicate the pool of warm water. Ocean, are the most affected. In popular usage, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is often called just "El Niño". El Niño is Spanish for "the boy" and refers to the Christ child, because periodic warming in the Pacific near South America is usually noticed around Christmas.[4] The expression of ENSO is potentially subject to dramatic changes as a result of global warming, and is a target for research in this regard.

Definition
El Niño is defined by prolonged differences in Pacific Ocean surface temperatures when compared with the average value. The accepted definition is a warming or cooling of at least 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) averaged over the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean. Typically, this anomaly happens at irregular intervals of 2–7 years and lasts nine months to two years.[5] The average period length is 5 years. When this warming or cooling occurs for only seven to nine months, it is classified as El Niño/La Niña "conditions"; when it occurs for more than that period, it is classified as El Niño/La Niña "episodes".[6] The first signs of an El Niño are: 1. 2. 3. 4. Rise in surface pressure over the Indian Ocean, Indonesia, and Australia Fall in air pressure over Tahiti and the rest of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean Trade winds in the south Pacific weaken or head east Warm air rises near Peru, causing rain in the northern Peruvian deserts

5. Warm water spreads from the west Pacific and the Indian Ocean to the east Pacific. It takes the rain with it, causing extensive drought in the western Pacific and rainfall in the normally dry eastern Pacific.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation El Niño's warm rush of nutrient-poor tropical water, heated by its eastward passage in the Equatorial Current, replaces the cold, nutrient-rich surface water of the Humboldt Current. When El Niño conditions last for many months, extensive ocean warming and the reduction in Easterly Trade winds limits upwelling of cold nutrient-rich deep water and its economic impact to local fishing for an international market can be serious.[7]

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Early stages and characteristics of El Niño
Although its causes are still being investigated, El Niño events begin when trade winds, part of the Walker circulation, falter for many months. A series of Kelvin waves—relatively warm subsurface waves of water a few centimetres high and hundreds of kilometres wide—cross the Pacific along the equator and create a pool of warm water near South America, where ocean temperatures are normally cold due to upwelling. The weakening of the winds can also create twin cyclones, another sign of a future El Niño.[8] The Pacific Ocean is a heat reservoir that drives global wind patterns, and the resulting change in its temperature alters weather on a global scale.[9] Rainfall shifts from the western Pacific toward the Americas, while Indonesia and India become drier.[10]
5-day running mean of MJO. Note how it moves eastward with time. Jacob Bjerknes in 1969 helped toward an understanding of ENSO, by suggesting that an anomalously warm spot in the eastern Pacific can weaken the east-west temperature difference, disrupting trade winds that push warm water to the west. The result is increasingly warm water toward the east.[11] Several mechanisms have been proposed through which warmth builds up in equatorial Pacific surface waters, and is then dispersed to lower depths by an El Niño event.[12] The resulting cooler area then has to "recharge" warmth for several years before another event can take place.[13]

While not a direct cause of El Niño, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, propagates rainfall anomalies eastward around the global tropics in a cycle of 30–60 days, and may influence the speed of development and intensity of El Niño and La Niña in several ways.[14] For example, westerly flows between MJO-induced areas of low pressure may cause cyclonic circulations north and south of the equator. When the circulations intensify, the westerly winds within the equatorial Pacific can further increase and shift eastward, playing a role in El Niño development.[15] Madden-Julian activity can also produce eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin waves, which may in turn be influenced by a developing El Niño, leading to a positive feedback loop.[16]

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Southern Oscillation
The Southern Oscillation is the atmospheric component of El Niño. This component is an oscillation in surface air pressure between the tropical eastern and the western Pacific Ocean waters. The strength of the Southern Oscillation is measured by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The SOI is computed from fluctuations in the surface air pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia.[17] El Niño episodes are associated with negative values of the SOI, meaning that the pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin is relatively small.
Normal Pacific pattern. Equatorial winds gather warm water pool Low atmospheric pressure tends to occur over warm toward west. Cold water upwells along South American coast. (NOAA water and high pressure occurs over cold water, in / PMEL / TAO) part because deep convection over the warm water acts to transport air. El Niño episodes are defined as sustained warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This results in a decrease in the strength of the Pacific trade winds, and a reduction in rainfall over eastern and northern Australia.

Walker circulation
During non-El Niño conditions, the Walker circulation is seen at the surface as easterly trade winds which move water and air warmed by the sun towards the west. This also creates ocean upwelling off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador and brings nutrient-rich cold water to the surface, increasing fishing stocks. The western side of the equatorial Pacific is characterized by warm, wet low pressure weather as the collected moisture is dumped in the form of typhoons and thunderstorms. The ocean is some 60 centimetres (24 in) higher in the western Pacific as the result of this motion.[18] [19] [20] [21]

El Niño Conditions. Warm water pool approaches South American coast. Absence of cold upwelling increases warming.

Effects of ENSO's warm phase (El Niño)
South America
Because El Niño's warm pool feeds thunderstorms above, it creates increased rainfall across the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean including several portions of the South American west coast. The effects of El Niño in South America are direct

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and stronger than in North America. An El Niño is associated with warm and very wet weather months April–October along the coasts of northern Peru and Ecuador, causing major flooding whenever the event is strong or extreme.[22] The effects during the months of February, March and April may become critical. Along the west coast of South America, El Niño reduces the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water that sustains large fish populations, which in turn sustain abundant sea birds, whose droppings support the fertilizer industry. This leads to fish kills offshore Peru.[7]

La Niña Conditions. Warm water is further west than usual.

The local fishing industry along the affected coastline can suffer during long-lasting El Niño events. The world's largest fishery collapsed due to overfishing during the 1972 El Niño Peruvian anchoveta reduction. During the 1982–83 event, jack mackerel and anchoveta populations were reduced, scallops increased in warmer water, but hake followed cooler water down the continental slope, while shrimp and sardines moved southward so some catches decreased while others increased.[23] Horse mackerel have increased in the region during warm events. Shifting locations and types of fish due to changing conditions provide challenges for fishing industries. Peruvian sardines have moved during El Niño events to Chilean areas. Other conditions provide further complications, such as the government of Chile in 1991 creating restrictions on the fishing areas for self-employed fishermen and industrial fleets. The ENSO variability may contribute to the great success of small fast-growing species along the Peruvian coast, as periods of low population removes predators in the area. Similar effects benefit migratory birds that travel each spring from predator-rich tropical areas to distant winter-stressed nesting areas. Southern Brazil and northern Argentina also experience wetter than normal conditions but mainly during the spring and early summer. Central Chile receives a mild winter with large rainfall, and the Peruvian-Bolivian Altiplano is sometimes exposed to unusual winter snowfall events. Drier and hotter weather occurs in parts of the Amazon River Basin, Colombia and Central America.

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North America
Winters, during the El Niño effect, are warmer and drier than average in the Northwest, Northmidwest, and Northmideast United States, and therefore those regions experience reduced snowfalls. Meanwhile, significantly wetter winters are present in northwest Mexico and the southwest United States including central and southern California, while both cooler and wetter than average winters in northeast Mexico and the southeast United States (including the Tidewater region of Virginia) occur during the El Niño phase of the oscillation.[24] [25] In Canada, both warmer and drier winters (due to forcing of the Polar Jet further north) over much of the country occur, although less variation from normal is seen in the Maritime Provinces. The following summer is warmer and sometimes drier creating a more active than average forest fire season over Central/Eastern Canada. Some believed that the Regional impacts of warm ENSO episodes (El Niño). ice-storm in January 1998, which devastated parts of Southern Ontario and Southern Quebec, was caused or accentuated by El Niño's warming effects.[26] El Niño warmed Vancouver for the 2010 Winter Olympics, such that the area experienced a subtropical-like winter during the games.[27] Summers, during the El Niño effect, are wetter than average in the Northwest, Northmidwest, Northmideast, and mountain regions of the United States. El Niño is credited with suppressing hurricanes and made the 2009 hurricane season the least active in twelve years.[28] El Niño is also associated with increased wave-caused coastal erosion along the United States Pacific Coast. There is some evidence that El Niño activity is correlated with incidence of red tides off the Pacific coast of California.

Tropical cyclones
Most tropical cyclones form on the side of the subtropical ridge closer to the equator, then move poleward past the ridge axis before recurving into the main belt of the Westerlies.[29] When the subtropical ridge position shifts due to El Niño, so will the preferred tropical cyclone tracks. Areas west of Japan and Korea tend to experience much fewer September–November tropical cyclone impacts during El Niño and neutral years. During El Niño years, the break in the subtropical ridge tends to lie near 130°E, which would favor the Japanese archipelago.[30] During El Niño years, Guam's chance of a tropical cyclone impact is one-third of the long term average.[31] The tropical Atlantic ocean experiences depressed activity due to increased vertical wind shear across the region during El Niño years.[32]

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Elsewhere
In Africa, East Africa, including Kenya, Tanzania and the White Nile basin experiences, in the long rains from March to May, wetter than normal conditions. There are also drier than normal conditions from December to February in south-central Africa, mainly in Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique and Botswana. Direct effects of El Niño resulting in drier conditions occur in parts of Southeast Asia and Northern Australia, increasing bush fires and worsening haze and decreasing air quality dramatically. Drier than normal conditions are also generally observed in Queensland, inland Victoria, inland New South Wales and eastern Tasmania from June to August. West of the Antarctic Peninsula, the Ross, Bellingshausen, and Amundsen Sea sectors have more sea ice during El Niño. The latter two and the Weddell Sea also become warmer and have higher atmospheric pressure. El Niño's effects on Europe are not entirely clear, but certainly it is not nearly as affected as at least large parts of other continents. There is some evidence that an El Niño may cause a wetter, cloudier winter in Northern Europe and a milder, drier winter in the Mediterranean Sea region. The El Niño winter of 2006/2007 was unusually mild in Europe, and the Alps recorded very little snow coverage that season.[33] Most recently, Singapore experienced the driest February in 2010 since records begins in 1869. With only 6.3 millimetres of rain fell in the month and temperatures hitting as high as 35 degrees Celsius on 26 February. 1968 and 2005 had the next driest Februaries when 8.4 mm of rain fell.[34]

Effects of ENSO's cool phase (La Niña)
La Niña is the name for the cold phase of ENSO, during which the cold pool in the eastern Pacific intensifies and the trade winds strengthen. The name La Niña originates from Spanish, meaning "the girl", analogous to El Niño meaning "the boy". It has also in the past been called anti-El Niño, and El Viejo (meaning "the old man").[35]

Africa

La Niña results in wetter than normal conditions in Southern Africa from December to February, and drier than normal conditions over equatorial East Africa over the same period.[36]

Sea surface skin temperature anomalies in November 2007 showing La Niña conditions

Asia
During La Niña years, the formation of tropical cyclones, along with the subtropical ridge position, shifts westward across the western Pacific ocean, which increases the landfall threat to China.[30] In March 2008, La Niña caused a drop in sea surface temperatures over Southeast Asia by an amount of 2 °C. It also caused heavy rains over Malaysia, Philippines and Indonesia.[37]

South America
During a time of La Niña, drought plagues the coastal regions of Peru and Chile.[38] From December to February, northern Brazil is wetter than normal.[38]

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North America
La Niña causes mostly the opposite effects of El Niño. La Niña causes above average precipitation across the North Midwest, the Northern Rockies, Northern California, and in the Pacific Northwest's southern and eastern regions. Meanwhile there is below average precipitation in the southwestern and southeastern states.[39] La Niñas occurred in 1904, 1908, 1910, 1916, 1924, 1928, 1938, 1950, 1955, 1964, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1988, 1995.[40] In Canada, La Niña will generally cause a cooler, snowier winter, such as the near record-breaking amounts of snow recorded in the La Niña winter of 2007/2008 in Eastern Canada.[41]

Recent occurrences
Regional impacts of La Niña. There was a strong La Niña episode during 1988–1989. La Niña also formed in 1995, from 1998–2000, and a minor one from 2000–2001. Recently, an occurrence of El Niño started in September 2006[42] and lasted until early 2007.[43] From June 2007 on, data indicated a moderate La Niña event, which strengthened in early 2008 and weakened by early 2009; the 2007–2008 La Niña event was the strongest since the 1988–1989 event. The strength of the La Niña made the 2008 hurricane season one of the most active since 1944; there were 16 named storms of at least 39 mph (63 km/h), eight of which became 74 mph (119 km/h) or greater hurricanes.[28]

According to NOAA, El Niño conditions were in place in the equatorial Pacific Ocean starting June 2009, peaking in January–February. Positive SST anomalies (El Niño) lasted until May 2010. Since then, SST anomalies have been negative (La Niña) and expected to stay negative for the next northern winter.[44]

Remote influence on tropical Atlantic Ocean
A study of climate records has shown that El Niño events in the equatorial Pacific are generally associated with a warm tropical North Atlantic in the following spring and summer.[45] About half of El Niño events persist sufficiently into the spring months for the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP) to become unusually large in summer.[46] Occasionally, El Niño's effect on the Atlantic Walker circulation over South America strengthens the easterly trade winds in the western equatorial Atlantic region. As a result, an unusual cooling may occur in the eastern equatorial Atlantic in spring and summer following El Niño peaks in winter.[47] Cases of El Niño-type events in both oceans simultaneously have been linked to severe famines related to the extended failure of monsoon rains.[48]

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ENSO and global warming
During the last several decades the number of El Niño events increased, and the number of La Niña events decreased.[49] The question is whether this is a random fluctuation or a normal instance of variation for that phenomenon, or the result of global climate changes towards global warming. The studies of historical data show that the recent El Niño variation is most likely linked to global warming. For example, one of the most recent results is that even after subtracting the positive influence of decadal variation, shown to be possibly present in the ENSO trend,[50] the amplitude of the ENSO variability in the observed data still increases, by as much as 60% in the last 50 years.[51] It is not certain what exact changes will happen to ENSO in the future: different models make different predictions (cf.[52] ) It may be that the observed phenomenon of more frequent and stronger El Niño events occurs only in the initial phase of the global warming, and then (e.g., after the lower layers of the ocean get warmer as well), El Niño will become weaker than it was.[53] It may also be that the stabilizing and destabilizing forces influencing the phenomenon will eventually compensate for each other.[] More research is needed to provide a better answer to that question, but the current results do not completely exclude the possibility of dramatic changes. The ENSO is considered to be a potential tipping element in Earth's climate.[54]

El Niño "Modoki" and Central-Pacific El Niño
The traditional Niño, also called Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño,[55] involves temperature anomalies in the Eastern Pacific. However, in the last two decades non-traditional El Niños were observed, in which the usual place of the temperature anomaly (Nino 1 and 2) is not affected, but an anomaly arises in the central Pacific (Nino 3.4).[56] The phenomenon is called Central Pacific (CP) El Niño,[55] "dateline" El Niño (because the anomaly arises near the dateline), or El Niño "Modoki" (Modoki is Japanese for "similar, but different").[57] The effects of the CP El Niño are different from those of the traditional EP El Niño—e.g., the new El Niño leads to more hurricanes more frequently making landfall in the Atlantic.[58] The recent discovery of El Niño Modoki has some scientists believing it to be linked to global warming.[59] However, Satellite data only goes back to 1979. More research must be done to find the correlation and study past El Niño episodes. The first recorded El Niño that originated in the central Pacific and moved towards the east was in 1986.[60] A joint study by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration concluded that climate change may contribute to stronger El Niños. El Niño "Modoki" events occurred in 1991-92, 1994–95, 2002–03, 2004–05 and 2009-10.[61] The strongest such Central Pacific El Niño event known occurred in 2009-2010.[62]

Map showing Nino3.4 and other index regions

Map of Atlantic major hurricanes during post-"Modoki" seasons, including 1987, 1992, 1995, 2003 and 2005.

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Health Impact of El Niño
Extreme weather conditions related with the El Niño cycle are associated with changes in the incidence of epidemic diseases. For example, the El Niño cycle is associated with increased risks of some of the diseases transmitted by mosquitoes, such as malaria, dengue and Rift Valley fever. Cycles of malaria in India, Venezuela and Colombia have now been linked to El Niño. Outbreaks of another mosquito-transmitted disease, Australian Encephalitis (Murray Valley Encephalitis - MVE), occur in temperate south-east Australia after heavy rainfall and flooding, which are associated with La Nina events. A severe outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurred after extreme rainfall in north-eastern Kenya and southern Somalia during the 1997-98 El Niño.[63]

Cultural history and pre-historic information
ENSO conditions have occurred at two- to seven year intervals for at least the past 300 years, but most of them have been weak. There is also evidence for strong El Niño events during the early Holocene epoch 10,000 years ago.[64] El Niño affected pre-Columbian Incas [65] and may have led to the demise of the Moche and other pre-Columbian Peruvian cultures.[66] A recent study suggests that a strong El-Niño effect between 1789–93 caused poor crop yields in Europe, which in turn helped touch off the French Revolution.[67] The extreme weather produced by El Niño in 1876–77 gave rise to the most deadly famines of the 19th century.[68] An early recorded mention of the term "El Niño" to refer to climate occurs in 1892, when Captain Camilo Carrillo told the Geographical society congress in Lima that Peruvian sailors named the warm northerly current "El Niño" because it was most noticeable around Christmas. The phenomenon had long been of interest because of its effects on the guano industry and other enterprises that depend on biological productivity of the sea.
Average equatorial Pacific temperatures

Charles Todd, in 1893, suggested that droughts in India and Australia tended to occur at the same time; Norman Lockyer noted the same in 1904. An El Niño connection with flooding was reported in 1895 by Pezet and Eguiguren. In 1924 Gilbert Walker (for whom the Walker circulation is named) coined the term "Southern Oscillation". The major 1982–83 El Niño led to an upsurge of interest from the scientific community. The period from 1990–1994 was unusual in that El Niños have rarely occurred in such rapid succession.[69] An especially intense El Niño event in 1998 caused an estimated 16% of the world's reef systems to die. The event temporarily warmed air temperature by 1.5 °C, compared to the usual increase of 0.25 °C associated with El Niño events.[70] Since then, mass coral bleaching has become common worldwide, with all regions having suffered "severe bleaching".[71] Major ENSO events were recorded in the years 1790–93, 1828, 1876–78, 1891, 1925–26, 1972–73, 1982–83, and 1997–98.[48]

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[54] Lenton, T. M.; Held, H.; Kriegler, E.; Hall, J. W.; Lucht, W.; Rahmstorf, S.; Schellnhuber, H. J. (Feb 2008). "Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system" (http:/ / www. pnas. org/ cgi/ pmidlookup?view=long& pmid=18258748) (Free full text). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105 (6): 1786–1793. doi:10.1073/pnas.0705414105. PMC 2538841. PMID 18258748. . [55] Kao, Hsun-Ying and Jin-Yi Yu (2009). "Contrasting Eastern-Pacific and Central-Pacific Types of ENSO" (http:/ / ams. allenpress. com/ perlserv/ ?request=get-abstract& doi=10. 1175/ 2008JCLI2309. 1). Journal of Climate 22 (3): 615–632. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2309.1. . [56] Larkin, N. K.; Harrison, D. E. (2005). "On the definition of El Niño and associated seasonal average U.S. Weather anomalies". Geophysical Research Letters 32 (13): L13705. Bibcode 2005GeoRL..3213705L. doi:10.1029/2005GL022738. [57] Modoki: The [[Mimetic (http:/ / books. google. com. au/ books?id=CDwaTsno9IMC& lpg=PA254& ots=6fk0sRLZns& dq=Modoki meaning OR pronunciation& pg=PA254#v=onepage& q=Modoki meaning OR pronunciation& f=false)] Tradition in Japan] (article by Sakabe Magumi), p251- in Modern Japanese Aesthetics - A Reader, ed Michelle Marra, 1999, University of Hawaii Press [58] Hye-Mi Kim, Peter J. Webster, & Judith A. Curry (2009). "Impact of Shifting Patterns of Pacific Ocean Warming on North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 325/ 5936/ 77). Science 335 (5936): 77–80. doi:10.1126/science.1174062. PMID 19574388. . [59] Yeh, Sang-Wook; Kug, Jong-Seong; Dewitte, Boris; Kwon, Min-Ho; Kirtman, Ben P.; Jin, Fei-Fei (September 2009). "El Niño in a changing climate". Nature 461 (7263): 511–4. doi:10.1038/nature08316. PMID 19779449. [60] Phillander, S. George (2004). Our affair with El Niño: how we transformed an enchanting Peruvian current into a global climate hazard. Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-691-11335-1. [61] CIT, JPL; Michael McPhaden. "NASA/NOAA Study Finds El Niños are Growing Stronger" (http:/ / www. jpl. nasa. gov/ news/ news. cfm?release=2010-277& cid=release_2010-277& msource=nino20100825& tr=y& auid=6878202). National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Pasadena, California: Jet Propulsion Laboratory. . Retrieved 27 August 2010. [62] Staff, OurAmazingPlanet. "New Type of El Niño Emerges as Climate Changes" (http:/ / www. livescience. com/ environment/ el-nino-rising-ocean-temperatures-100830. html). Imaginova Corporation. LiveScience. . Retrieved 19 September 2010. [63] "El Niño and its health impact" (http:/ / www. allcountries. org/ health/ el_nino_and_its_health_impact. html). Health Topics A to Z. . Retrieved 2011-01-01.. [64] Carrè, Matthieu; et al. (2005). "Strong El Niño events during the early Holocene: stable isotope evidence from Peruvian sea shells". The Holocene 15 (1): 42–7. doi:10.1191/0959683605h1782rp. [65] "El Nino here to stay" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ science/ nature/ 25433. stm). BBC News. . Retrieved 2010-05-01. [66] Brian Fagan (1999). Floods, Famines and Emporers: El Niño and the Fate of Civilizations. Basic Books. pp. 119–138. ISBN 0-465-01120-9. [67] Grove, Richard H. (1998). "Global Impact of the 1789–93 El Niño". Nature 393 (6683): 318–9. doi:10.1038/30636. [68] " Ó Gráda, C.: Famine: A Short History (http:/ / press. princeton. edu/ chapters/ s8857. html)". Princeton University Press. [69] Trenberth, Kevin E.; Hoar, Timothy J. (1996). "The 1990-1995 El Niño-Southern Oscillation Event: Longest on Record" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 1996/ 95GL03602. shtml). Geophysical Research Letters 23 (1): 57–60. Bibcode 1996GeoRL..23...57T. doi:10.1029/95GL03602. . [70] Trenberth, K. E.; et al. (2002). "Evolution of El Niño – Southern Oscillation and global atmospheric surface temperatures". Journal of Geophysical Research 107 (D8): 4065. Bibcode 2002JGRD..107.4065T. doi:10.1029/2000JD000298. [71] Marshall, Paul; Schuttenberg, Heidi (2006). A reef manager's guide to coral bleaching (http:/ / coris. noaa. gov/ activities/ reef_managers_guide/ pdfs/ reef_managers_guide. pdf). Townsville, Qld.: Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority. ISBN 1876945400. .

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Further reading
• Caviedes, César N. (2001). El Niño in History: Storming Through the Ages. Gainesville: University of Florida Press. ISBN 0813020999. • Fagan, Brian M. (1999). Floods, Famines, and Emperors: El Niño and the Fate of Civilizations. New York: Basic Books. ISBN 0712664785. • Glantz, Michael H. (2001). Currents of change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 052178672X. • Philander, S. George (1990). El Niño, La Niña and the Southern Oscillation. San Diego: Academic Press. ISBN 0125532350. • Trenberth, Kevin E. (1997). "The definition of El Niño" (http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/ ?request=res-loc&uri=urn:ap:pdf:doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2771:TDOENO>2.0.CO;2) (pdf). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Scociety 78 (12): 2771–7. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2771:TDOENO>2.0.CO;2. ISSN 1520-0477.

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External links
• Latest ENSO updates & predictions from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (http://iri. columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/QuickLook.html) • PO.DAAC's El Niño Animations (http://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/el-nino/index.html) • National Academy of Sciences El Niño/La Niña article (http://www7.nationalacademies.org/opus/elnino. html) • NOAA FAQ "What is ENSO?" (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ ensofaq.shtml#ENSO) • Latest El Niño/La Niña Data from NASA (http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/jason1-quick-look/) • Economic Costs of El Niño / La Niña and Economic Benefits from Improved Forecasting (http://www.ncdc. noaa.gov/oa/esb/?goal=climate&file=events/enso/) from "NOAA Socioeconomics" website initiative • El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (http://www.linkingweatherandclimate.com/ENSO/) • El Niño and La Niña from the 1999 International Red Cross World Disasters Report (http://www.ericjlyman. com/elnino.html) by Eric J. Lyman. • ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso. shtml) • La Niña episodes in the Tropical Pacific (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ lanina/cold_impacts.shtml) • NOAA announces 2004 El Niño (http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/s2317.htm) • NOAA El Niño Page (http://www.elnino.noaa.gov) • Ocean Motion: El Niño (http://www.oceanmotion.org/html/impact/el-nino.htm) • SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) (http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/glossary/soid.htm) • The Climate of Peru (http://www.limaperunet.com/climate/climateall.html) • What is El Niño? (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/el-nino-story.html) • What is La Niña? (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/la-nina-story.html) • El-Nino, La-Nina, Southern Oscillation, ENSO (http://www.sbg.ac.at/ipk/avstudio/pierofun/atmo/elnino. htm) • Kelvin Wave Renews El Niño - NASA, Earth Observatory image of the day, 2010, March 21 (http:// earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=43105) • Animation of ENSO in Victoria, Australia (http://www.new.dpi.vic.gov.au/agriculture/ environment-and-community/climate/understanding-weather-and-climate/climatedogs/enso)

Indian Ocean Dipole

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Indian Ocean Dipole
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an irregular oscillation of sea-surface temperatures in which the western Indian Ocean becomes alternately warmer and then colder than the eastern part of the ocean.

The phenomenon
The IOD involves an aperiodic oscillation of sea-surface temperatures, between "positive", "neutral" and "negative" phases. A positive phase sees greater-than-average sea-surface temperatures and greater precipitation in the western Indian Ocean region, with a corresponding cooling of waters in the eastern Indian Ocean—which tends to cause droughts in adjacent land areas of Indonesia and Australia. The negative phase of the IOD brings about the opposite conditions, with warmer water and greater precipitation in the eastern Indian Ocean, and cooler and drier conditions in the west.

Water temperatures around the Mentawai Islands dropped about 4° Celsius during the height of the Indian Ocean Dipole in November of 1997. During these events unusually strong winds from the east push warm surface water towards Africa, allowing cold water to upwell along the Sumatran coast. In this image blue areas are colder than normal, while red areas are warmer than normal.

The IOD also affects the strength of monsoons over the Indian subcontinent. A significant positive IOD occurred in 1997-8, with another in 2006. The IOD is one aspect of the general cycle of global climate, interacting with similar phenomena like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean. The IOD phenomenon was first identified by climate researchers in 1999. Yet evidence from fossil coral reefs demonstrates that the IOD has functioned since at least the middle of the Holocene period, 6500 years ago. An average of four each positive/negative IOD events occur during each 30 year period with each event lasting around six months. However, there have been 12 positive IODs since 1980 and no negative events since 1992. The occurrence of consecutive positive IOD events are extremely rare with only two such events recorded, 1913–1914 and the three consecutive events from 2006-2008 which preceded the Black Saturday bushfires. Modelling indicates that consecutive positive events occur twice over a 1,000 year period. The positive IOD in 2007 evolved together with La Niña which is a very rare phenomenon that has happened only once in the available historical records (in 1967).[1] [2] [3] [4]

Effect on Australian Droughts
A 2009 study by Ummenhofer et al. at the University of New South Wales (UNSW) Climate Change Research Centre, has demonstrated a significant correlation between the IOD and drought in the southern half of Australia, in particular the south-east. Every major southern drought since 1889 has coincided with positive/neutral IOD fluctuations including the 1895-1902, 1937–1945 and the current 1995-present droughts.[5] The research shows that when the IOD is in its negative phase, with cool Indian Ocean water west of Australia and warm Timor Sea water to the north, winds are generated that pick up moisture from the ocean and then sweep down towards southern Australia to deliver higher rainfall. In the IOD positive phase, the pattern of ocean temperatures is reversed, weakening the winds and reducing the amount of moisture picked up and transported across Australia. The consequence is that rainfall in the south-east is well below average during periods of a positive IOD. The study also shows that the IOD has a much more significant effect on the rainfall patterns in south-east Australia than the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean as already shown in some of the previous [6] [7] and recent studies.[8]

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Further reading
• Abram, Nerilie J.; et al. (2007). "Seasonal characteristics of the Indian Ocean dipole during the Holocene epoch". Nature 445 (7125): 299–302. doi:10.1038/nature05477. PMID 17230187. • Ashok, Karumuri; Guan, Zhaoyong; Yamagata, Toshio (2001). "Impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Relationship between the Indian Monsoon Rainfall and ENSO". Geophysical Research Letters 28 (23): 4499–4502. Bibcode 2001GeoRL..28.4499A. doi:10.1029/2001GL013294. • Li, Tim; et al. (2003). "A Theory for the Indian Ocean Dipole–Zonal Mode". Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 60 (17): 2119–2135. doi:10.1175/1520-0469(2003)060<2119:ATFTIO>2.0.CO;2. • Rao, S. A.; et al. (2002). "Interannual variability in the subsurface Indian Ocean with special emphasis on the Indian Ocean Dipole". Deep Sea Research-II 49 (7–8): 1549–1572. doi:10.1016/S0967-0645(01)00158-8. • Saji, N. H.; et al. (1999). "A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean". Nature 401 (6751): 360–363. doi:10.1038/43854. PMID 16862108. • Behera, S. K.; et al. (2008). "Unusual IOD event of 2007". Geophysical Research Letters 35: L14S11. Bibcode 2008GeoRL..3514S11B. doi:10.1029/2008GL034122.

References
[1] "Argo profiles a rare occurrence of three consecutive positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, 2006–2008" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 2009/ 2008GL037038. shtml). Geophysical Research Letters. April 16, 2009. . Retrieved December 22, 2009. [2] Cooper, Dani (March 25, 2009). "Bushfire origins lie in Indian Ocean" (http:/ / www. abc. net. au/ science/ articles/ 2009/ 03/ 25/ 2525580. htm). Australian Broadcasting Corporation. . Retrieved December 22, 2009. [3] Perry, Michael (February 5, 2009). "Indian Ocean linked to Australian droughts" (http:/ / www. reuters. com/ article/ idUSTRE5133FL20090205). Reuters. . Retrieved December 22, 2009. [4] Rosebro, Jack (February 12, 2009). "Australi Reels From Split Weather System" (http:/ / www. greencarcongress. com/ 2009/ 02/ australia-reels/ comments/ page/ 2/ ). Green Car Congress. . Retrieved December 22, 2009. [5] Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; et al. (February 2009). "What causes southeast Australia's worst droughts?" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ pubs/ crossref/ 2009/ 2008GL036801. shtml). Geophysical Research Letters 36 (L04706). doi:10.1029//2008GL036801. . [6] Swadhin K. Behera and Toshio Yamagata (2003). Influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the Southern Oscillation. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. (http:/ / www. jstage. jst. go. jp/ article/ jmsj/ 81/ 1/ 81_169/ ) 37, 169--177 [7] H. Annamalai, S.-P. Xie, J.-P. McCreary and R Murtugudde (2005). Impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature on developing El Niño. Journal of Climatology. 18, 302-319 (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ abs/ 10. 1175/ JCLI-3268. 1) [8] Takeshi Izumo, Jérôme Vialard, Matthieu Lengaigne, Clément de Boyer Montegut, Swadhin K. Behera, Jing-Jia Luo, Sophie Cravatte, Sébastien Masson and Toshio Yamagata (2010). Influence of the state of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the following year’s El Niño. Nature Geoscience. 3, 168-172, DOI: 10.1038/NGEO760

External links
• IOD home page. (http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/) • IOD, monsoons, and ENSO. (http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/jp/press/yamagata/011129/eng/index_e. html) • Indian Ocean causes Big Dry: drought mystery solved. (http://www.science.unsw.edu.au/news/ indian-ocean-drought) • Animation of Indian Ocean Dipole in Victoria, Australia (http://www.new.dpi.vic.gov.au/agriculture/ environment-and-community/climate/understanding-weather-and-climate/climatedogs/indy)

Pacific decadal oscillation

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Pacific decadal oscillation
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a pattern of Pacific climate variability that shifts phases on at least inter-decadal time scale, usually about 20 to 30 years. The PDO is detected as warm or cool surface waters in the Pacific Ocean, north of 20° N. During a "warm", or "positive", phase, the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms; during a "cool" or "negative" phase, the opposite pattern occurs. The Pacific (inter-)decadal oscillation was named by Steven R. Hare, who noticed it while studying salmon production patterns results in 1997.[1] The prevailing hypothesis is that the PDO is caused by a "reddening" of ENSO combined with stochastic atmospheric forcing.[2]
NASA image of the Pacific Ocean in April 2008 showing La Niña and Pacific Decadal Anomalies.

A PDO signal has been reconstructed to 1661 through tree-ring chronologies in the Baja California area.[3] The interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO or ID) display similar sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-level pressure (SLP) patterns, with a cycle of 15–30 years, but affects both the north and south Pacific. In the tropical Pacific, maximum SST anomalies are found away from the equator. This is quite different from the quasi-decadal oscillation (QDO) with a period of 8-to-12 years and maximum SST anomalies straddling the equator, thus resembling the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Mechanisms
Several studies have indicated that the PDO index can be reconstructed as the superimposition of tropical forcing and extra-tropical processes.[2] [4] [5] [6] Thus, unlike ENSO, the PDO is not a single physical mode of ocean variability, but rather the sum of several processes with different dynamical origins. At inter-annual time scales the PDO index is reconstructed as the sum of random and ENSO induced variability in the Aleutian low, on decadal timescales ENSO teleconnections, stochastic atmospheric forcing and changes in the North Pacific oceanic gyre circulation contribute approximately equally, additionally sea surface temperature anomalies have some winter to winter persistence due to the reemergence mechanism. ENSO teleconnections, the atmospheric bridge[7] ENSO can influence the global circulation pattern thousands of kilometers away from the equatorial Pacific through the "atmospheric bridge". During el nino events deep convection and heat transfer to the troposphere is enhanced over the anomalously warm sea surface temperature, this ENSO related tropical forcing generates Rossby waves that propagates poleward and eastward and are subsequently refracted back from the pole to the tropics. The planetary waves forms at preferred locations both in the North and

The atmospheric bridge during el nino

Pacific decadal oscillation South Pacific Ocean and the teleconnection pattern is established within 2–6 weeks.[8] ENSO driven patterns modify surface temperature,humidity, wind and the distribution of cloud over the North Pacific that alter surface heat, momentum and freshwater fluxes and thus induce sea surface temperature,salinity and mixed layer depth (MLD) anomalies. The atmospheric bridge is more effective during boreal winter when the deepened Aleutian low results in stronger and cold northwesterly winds over the central Pacific and warm/humid southerly winds along the North American west coast, the associated changes in the surface heat fluxes and to a lesser extent Ekman transport creates negative sea surface temperature anomalies and a deepened MLD in the central pacific and warm the ocean from the Hawaii to the Bering Sea. SST reemergence[9]

154

Reemergence mechanism in the North Pacific.

Mixed layer depth seasonal cycle.

Midlatitude SST anomaly patterns tend to recur from one winter to the next but not during the intervening summer, this process occurs because of the strong mixed layer seasonal cycle. The mixed layer depth over the North Pacific is deeper, typically 100-200m, in winter than it is in summer and thus SST anomalies that forms during winter and extend to the base of the mixed layer are sequestered beneath the shallow summer mixed layer when it reforms in late spring and are effectively insulated from the air-sea heat flux. When the mixed layer deepens again in the following autumn/early winter the anomalies may influence again the surface. This process has been named "reemergence mechanism" by Alexander and Deser[10] and is observed over much of the North Pacific Ocean although is more effective in the west where the winter mixed layer is deeper and the seasonal cycle greater. Stochastic atmospheric forcing[11] Long term sea surface temperature variation may be induced by random atmospheric forcings that are integrated and reddened into the ocean mixed layer. The stochastic climate model paradigm was proposed by Frankignoul and Hasselmann,[12] in this model a stochastic forcing represented by the passage of storms alter the ocean mixed layer temperature via surface energy fluxes and Ekman currents and the system is damped due to the enhanced (reduced) heat loss to the atmosphere over the anomalously warm (cold) SST via turbulent energy and longwave radiative fluxes, in the simple case of a linear negative feedback the model can be written as:

where v is the random atmospheric forcing, λ is the damping rate (positive and constant) and y is the response. The variance spectrum of y is:

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where F is the variance of the white noise forcing and w is the frequency, an implication of this equation is that at short time scales (w>>λ) the variance of the ocean temperature increase with the square of the period while at longer timescales(w<<λ, ~150 months) the damping process dominates and limits sea surface temperature anomalies so that the spectra became white. Thus an atmospheric white noise generates SST anomalies at much longer timescales but without spectral peaks. Modeling studies suggest that this process contribute to as much as 1/3 of the PDO variability at decadal timescales. Ocean dynamics Several dynamic oceanic mechanisms and SST-air feedback may contribute to the observed decadal variability in the North Pacific Ocean. SST variability is stronger in the Kuroshio Oyashio extension (KOE) region and is associated with changes in the KOE axis and strength,[6] that generates decadal and longer time scales SST variance but without the observed magnitude of the spectral peak at ~10 years, and SST-air feedback. Remote reemergence occurs in regions of strong current such as the Kuroshio extension and the anomalies created near the Japan may reemerge the next winter in the central pacific. • Advective resonance Saravanan and McWilliams[13] have demonstrated that the interaction between spatially coherent atmospheric forcing patterns and an advective ocean shows periodicities at preferred time scales when non-local advective effects dominates over the local sea surface temperature damping. This "advective resonance" mechanism may generate decadal SST variability in the Eastern North Pacific associated with the anomalous Ekman advection and surface heat flux.[14] • North Pacific oceanic gyre circulation Dynamic gyre adjustments are essential to generate decadal SST peaks in the North Pacific, the process occurs via westward propagating oceanic Rossby waves that are forced by wind anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The quasigeostrophic equation for long non-dispersive Rossby Waves forced by large scale wind stress can be written as:[15]

where h is the upper-layer thickness anomaly, curl(τ) is the wind stress, c is the Rossby waves speed that depends on latitudes, ρ0 is the density of sea water and f0 is the Coriolis parameter at a reference latitude. The response time scale is set by the Rossby waves speed, the location of the wind forcing and the basin width, at the latitude of the Kuroshio Extension c is 2.5 cm s−1 and the dynamic gyre adjustement timescale is ~(5)10 years if the Rossby wave was initiated in the (central)eastern Pacific Ocean. If the wind white forcing is zonally uniform it should generate a red spectrum in which h variance increase with the period and reaches a constant amplitude at lower frequencies without decadal and interdecadal peaks, however low frequencies atmospheric circulation tends to be dominated by fixed spatial patterns so that wind forcing is not zonally uniform, if the wind forcing is zonally sinusoidal then decadal peaks occurs due to resonance of the forced basin-scale Rossby waves. The propagation of h anomalies in the western pacific changes the KOE axis and strength[6] and impact sst due to the anomalous geostrophic heat transport. Recent studies[6] [16] suggest that Rossby waves excited by the Aleutian low propagates the PDO signal from the North Pacific to the KOE through changes in the KOE axis while Rossby waves associated with the NPO propagates the NPGO signal through changes in the KOE strength.

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Reconstructions and Regime shifts

Observed monthly values for the PDO (1900–2010).

Reconstructed PDO (993-1996).

The PDO index has been reconstructed using tree rings and other hydrologically sensitive proxies from west North America and Asia.[3] [17] [18] MacDonald and Case[19] reconstructed the PDO back to 993 using tree rings from California and Alberta. The index shows a 50-70 year periodicity but this is a strong mode of variability only after 1800, a persistent negative phase occurred during medieval times (993-1300) which is consistent with la nina conditions reconstructed in the tropical Pacific[20] and multi-century droughts in the South-West United States.[21] Several regime shifts are apparent both in the reconstructions and instrumental data, during the 20th century regime shifts associated with concurrent changes in SST, SLP, land precipitation and ocean cloud cover occurred in 1924/1925,1945/1946 and 1976/1977:[22] • 1750: PDO displays an unusually strong oscillation.[3] • 1924/1925: PDO changed to a "warm" phase.[22] • 1945/1946: The PDO changed to a "cool" phase, the pattern of this regime shift is similar to the 1970s episode with maximum amplitude in the subarctic and subtropical front but with a greater signature near the Japan while the 1970s shift was stronger near the American west coast.[22] [23] • 1976/1977: PDO changed to a "warm" phase.[24] • 1988/1989:A weakening of the Aleutian low with associated SST changes was observed,[25] in contrast to others regime shifts this change appears to be related to concurrent extratropical oscillation in the North Pacific and North Atlantic rather than tropical processes.[26] • 1997/1998: Several changes in Sea surface temperature and marine ecosystem occurred in the North Pacific after 1997/1998, in contrast to prevailing anomalies observed after the 1970s shift SST declined along the United States west coast and substantial changes in the populations of salmon, anchovy and sardine were observed,[27] however the spatial pattern of the SST change was different with a meridional SST seesaw in the central and western Pacific that resemble a strong shift in the NPGO rather than the PDO structure, this pattern dominated much of the North Pacific SST variability after 1989.[28]

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Predictability
NOAA's forecast [29] use a linear inverse modeling (LIM)[30] method to predict the PDO, LIM assumes that the PDO can be separated into a linear deterministic component and a non-linear component represented by random fluctuations. Much of the LIM PDO predictability arises from ENSO and the global trend rather than extra-tropical processes and is thus limited to ~4 season, the prediction is consistent with the seasonal footprinting mechanism[31] in which an optimal SST structure evolve into the ENSO mature phase 6–10 months later that subsequently impact the North Pacific Ocean SST via the atmospheric bridge. Skills in predicting decadal PDO variability could arise from taking into account the impact of the externally forced[32] and internally generated[33] pacific variability.

Related patterns
• ENSO tends to lead PDO/IPO cycling. • Shifts in the IPO change the location and strength of ENSO activity. The South Pacific Convergence Zone moves northeast during El Niño and southwest during La Niña events. The same movement takes place during positive IPO and negative IPO phases respectively. (Folland et al., 2002) • Interdecadal temperature variations in China are closely related to those of the NAO and the NPO. • The amplitudes of the NAO and NPO increased in the 1960s and interannual variation patterns changed from 3–4 years to 8–15 years. • Sea level rise is affected when large areas of water warm and expand, or cool and contract.

References
[1] Mantua, Nathan J.; et al. (1997). "A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production" (http:/ / www. atmos. washington. edu/ ~mantua/ abst. PDO. html). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78: 1069–1079. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2. . [2] Newman, M.; Compo, G.P.; Alexander, Michael A. (2003). "ENSO-Forced Variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation". Journal of Climate 16 (23): 3853–3857. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3853:EVOTPD>2.0.CO;2. [3] Biondi, Franco; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R. (2001). "North Pacific Decadal Climate Variability since 1661" (http:/ / www. ngdc. noaa. gov/ paleo/ pubs/ biondi2001/ biondi2001. html). Journal of Climate 14 (1): 5–10. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<0005:NPDCVS>2.0.CO;2. . [4] Vimont, Daniel J. (2005). "The Contribution of the Interannual ENSO Cycle to the Spatial Pattern of Decadal ENSO-Like Variability" (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ abs/ 10. 1175/ JCLI3365. 1). Journal of Climate 18 (12): 2080–2092. doi:10.1175/JCLI3365.1. . Retrieved 2010-09-16. [5] Schneider, Niklas; Bruce D. Cornuelle (2005). "The Forcing of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation" (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ abs/ 10. 1175/ JCLI3527. 1). Journal of Climate 18 (8): 4355–4372. doi:10.1175/JCLI3527.1. . Retrieved 2010-09-16. [6] Qiu, Bo; Niklas Schneider, Shuiming Chen (2007). "Coupled Decadal Variability in the North Pacific: An Observationally Constrained Idealized Model" (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ full/ 10. 1175/ JCLI4190. 1). Journal of Climate 20 (14): 3602–3620. doi:10.1175/JCLI4190.1. . Retrieved 2010-09-16. [7] Alexander, Michael A; Ileana Bladé,Matthew Newman,John R. Lanzante,Ngar-Cheung Lau,James D. Scott (2002). "The Atmospheric Bridge: The Influence of ENSO Teleconnections on Air–Sea Interaction over the Global Oceans" (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ abs/ 10. 1175/ 1520-0442(2002)015<2205:TABTIO>2. 0. CO;2). Journal of Climate 15 (16): 2205–2231. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<2205:TABTIO>2.0.CO;2. . Retrieved 2010-09-20. [8] Liu, Zhengyu; Alexander Michael (2007). "Atmospheric bridge, oceanic tunnel,and global climate teleconnections." (http:/ / www. agu. org/ journals/ ABS/ 2007/ 2005RG000172. shtml). REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS 45: 2. Bibcode 2007RvGeo..45.2005L. doi:10.1029/2005RG000172. . Retrieved 2010-09-20. [9] Deser, Clara; Michael A. Alexander, Michael S. Timlin (2003). "Understanding the Persistence of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in Midlatitudes" (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ abs/ 10. 1175/ 1520-0442(2003)016<0057:UTPOSS>2. 0. CO;2). Journal of Climate 16 (12): 57–72. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<0057:UTPOSS>2.0.CO;2. . Retrieved 2010-09-20. [10] Alexander, Michael A.; Deser Clara (1995). "A Mechanism for the Recurrence of Wintertime Midlatitude SST Anomalies" (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ abs/ 10. 1175/ 1520-0485(1995)025<0122:AMFTRO>2. 0. CO;2). Journal of Physical Oceanography 125 (1): 122–137. doi:10.1175/1520-0485(1995)025<0122:AMFTRO>2.0.CO;2. . Retrieved 2010-09-20.

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[11] Alexander, Michael A.; Penland, Cecile (1996). "Variability in a mixed layer ocean model driven by stochastic atmospheric forcing" (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ abs/ 10. 1175/ 1520-0442(1996)009<2424:VIAMLO>2. 0. CO;2). Journal of Climate 9 (10): 2424–2442. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<2424:VIAMLO>2.0.CO;2. . Retrieved 2010-09-22. [12] Frankignoul, Claude; Hasselmann, Klaus (1977). "Stochastic climate models, Part II Application to sea-surface temperature anomalies and thermocline variability" (http:/ / onlinelibrary. wiley. com/ doi/ 10. 1111/ j. 2153-3490. 1977. tb00740. x/ abstract). Tellus 24 (4): 289–305. doi:10.1111/j.2153-3490.1977.tb00740.x. . Retrieved 2010-09-22. [13] Saravanan, R.; McWilliams James C. (1998). "Advective Ocean–Atmosphere Interaction: An Analytical Stochastic Model with Implications for Decadal Variability" (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ abs/ 10. 1175/ 1520-0442(1998)011<0165:AOAIAA>2. 0. CO;2). Journal of Climate 11 (2): 165–188. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<0165:AOAIAA>2.0.CO;2. . Retrieved 2010-09-23. [14] Wu, Lixin; Zhengyu Liu (2003). "Decadal Variability in the North Pacific: The Eastern North Pacific Mode" (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ abs/ 10. 1175/ 1520-0442(2003)016<3111:DVITNP>2. 0. CO;2). Journal of Climate 16 (19): 3111–3131. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3111:DVITNP>2.0.CO;2. . Retrieved 2010-09-27. [15] Jin, Fei-Fei (1997). "A Theory of Interdecadal Climate Variability of the North Pacific Ocean–Atmosphere System" (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ full/ 10. 1175/ 1520-0442(1997)010<1821:ATOICV>2. 0. CO;2). Journal of Climate 10 (8): 1821–1835. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1821:ATOICV>2.0.CO;2. . Retrieved 2010-10-07. [16] Ceballos, Lina; Emanuele Di Lorenzo; Carlos D. Hoyos; Niklas Schneider; Bunmei Taguchi (2009). "North Pacific Gyre Oscillation Synchronizes Climate Fluctuations in the Eastern and Western Boundary Systems" (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ full/ 10. 1175/ 1520-0442(1997)010<1821:ATOICV>2. 0. CO;2). Journal of Climate 22 (19): 5163–5174. doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2848.1. . Retrieved 2010-10-07. [17] Shen, Caiming; Wei-Chyung Wang; Wei Gong; Zhixin Hao (2006). "A Pacific Decadal Oscillation record since 1470 AD reconstructed from proxy data of summer rainfall over eastern China" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ journals/ ABS/ 2006/ 2005GL024804. shtml). Geophys. Res. Lett. 33. Bibcode 2006GeoRL..3303702S. doi:10.1029/2005GL024804. . Retrieved 2010-10-26. [18] D'arrigo, R.; Wilson R. (2006). "On the Asian Expression of the PDO." (http:/ / onlinelibrary. wiley. com/ doi/ 10. 1002/ joc. 1326/ abstract). International Journal of Climatology 26: 1607–1617. doi:10.1002/joc.1326. . Retrieved 2010-10-26. [19] MacDonald, G.M.; Case R.A. (2005). "Variations in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation over the past millennium" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ journals/ ABS/ 2005/ 2005GL022478. shtml). Geophys. Res. Lett. 32. Bibcode 2005GeoRL..3208703M. doi:10.1029/2005GL022478. . Retrieved 2010-10-26. [20] Rein, Bert; Andreas Lückge; Frank Sirocko (2004). "AA major Holocene ENSO anomaly during the Medieval period" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ journals/ ABS/ 2004/ 2004GL020161. shtml). Geophys. Res. Lett. 31. Bibcode 2004GeoRL..3117211R. doi:10.1029/2004GL020161. . Retrieved 2010-10-26. [21] Seager, Richard; Graham, Nicholas; Herweijer, Celine; Gordon, Arnold L.; Kushnir, Yochanan; Cook, Ed (2007). "Blueprints for Medieval hydroclimate". Quaternary Science Reviews 26 (19-21): 2322–2336. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2007.04.020. [22] Deser, Clara; Phillips, Adam S.; Hurrell, James W. (2004). "Pacific Interdecadal Climate Variability: Linkages between the Tropics and the North Pacific during Boreal Winter since 1900." (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ abs/ 10. 1175/ 1520-0442(2004)017<3109:PICVLB>2. 0. CO;2). Journal of Climate 17 (15): 3109–3124. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<3109:PICVLB>2.0.CO;2. . Retrieved 2010-10-26. [23] Minobe, Shoshiro; Atsushi Maeda (2005). "A 1° monthly gridded sea-surface temperature dataset compiled from ICOADS from 1850 to 2002 and Northern Hemisphere frontal variability" (http:/ / onlinelibrary. wiley. com/ doi/ 10. 1002/ joc. 1170/ abstract). International Journal of Climatology 25 (7): 881–894. doi:10.1002/joc.1170. . Retrieved 2010-10-26. [24] Hare, Steven R.; Mantua, Nathan J. (2000). "Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989". Progress in Oceanography 47 (2–4): 103–145. Bibcode 2000PrOce..47..103H. doi:10.1016/S0079-6611(00)00033-1. [25] Trenberth, Kevin; Hurrell, James W. (1994). "Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific" (http:/ / www. springerlink. com/ content/ m5711482u6554132/ ). Climate Dynamics 9 (6): 303–319. Bibcode 1994ClDy....9..303T. doi:10.1007/BF00204745. . Retrieved 2010-10-26. [26] Yasunaka, Sayaka; Kimio Hanawa (2003). "Regime Shifts in the Northern Hemisphere SST Field: Revisited in Relation to Tropical Variations" (http:/ / www. jstage. jst. go. jp/ article/ jmsj/ 81/ 2/ 81_415/ _article/ -char/ en). Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan 81 (2): 415–424. doi:10.2151/jmsj.81.415. . Retrieved 2010-10-26. [27] Chavez, Francisco P; John Ryan, Salvador E. Lluch-Cota, Miguel Ñiquen C. (2003). "From Anchovies to Sardines and Back: Multidecadal Change in the Pacific Ocean" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ short/ 299/ 5604/ 217). Science 299: 217–221. doi:10.1126/science.1075880. . Retrieved 2010-10-26. [28] Bond, N.A.; J. E. Overland; M. Spillane; P. Stabeno (2003). "Recent shifts in the state of the North Pacific" (http:/ / europa. agu. org/ ?uri=/ journals/ gl/ gl0323/ 2003GL018597/ 2003GL018597. xml& view=article). Geophys. Res. Lett 30. Bibcode 2003GeoRL..30wCLM1B. doi:10.1029/2003GL018597. . Retrieved 2010-10-26. [29] http:/ / www. esrl. noaa. gov/ psd/ forecasts/ sstlim/ for1pdo. html [30] Alexander, Michael A.; Ludmila Matrosova; Cécile Penland; James D. Scott; Ping Chang (2008). "Forecasting Pacific SSTs: Linear Inverse Model Predictions of the PDO" (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ abs/ 10. 1175/ 2007JCLI1849. 1). Journal of Climate 21 (2): 385–402. doi:10.1175/2007JCLI1849.1. . Retrieved 2010-10-08. [31] Vimont, Daniel J.; John M. Wallace; David S. Battisti (2003). "The Seasonal Footprinting Mechanism in the Pacific: Implications for ENSO" (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ abs/ 10. 1175/ 1520-0442(2003)016<2668:TSFMIT>2. 0. CO;2). Journal of Climate 16 (16): 2668–2675. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<2668:TSFMIT>2.0.CO;2. . Retrieved 2010-10-08.

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[32] Meehl, Gerard A.; Aixue Hu; Benjamin D. Santer (2009). "The Mid-1970s Climate Shift in the Pacific and the Relative Roles of Forced versus Inherent Decadal Variability" (http:/ / journals. ametsoc. org/ doi/ abs/ 10. 1175/ 2008JCLI2552. 1). Journal of Climate 22 (3): 780–792. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2552.1. . Retrieved 2010-10-08. [33] Mochizuki, Takashi; Masayoshi Ishii; Masahide Kimoto; Yoshimitsu Chikamotoc; Masahiro Watanabec; Toru Nozawad; Takashi T. Sakamotoa; Hideo Shiogamad; Toshiyuki Awajia; Nozomi Sugiuraa; Takahiro Toyodaa; Sayaka Yasunakac; Hiroaki Tatebea; Masato Moric (2010). "Pacific decadal oscillation hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction" (http:/ / www. pnas. org/ content/ 107/ 5/ 1833. full). PNAS 107 (5): 1833–1837. doi:10.1073/pnas.0906531107. . Retrieved 2010-10-08.

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Further reading
• LI Chongyin, HE Jinhai, ZHU Jinhong (2004). "A Review of Decadal/Interdecadal Climate Variation Studies in China". Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 21 (3): 425–436. doi:10.1007/BF02915569. • C. K. Folland, J. A. Renwick, M. J. Salinger, A. B. Mullan (2002). "Relative influences of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and ENSO in the South Pacific Convergence Zone" (http://www.agu.org/journals/ABS/ 2002/2001GL014201.shtml). Geophysical Research Letters 29 (13): 21–1–21–4. Bibcode 2002GeoRL..29m..21F. doi:10.1029/2001GL014201. • Steven R. Hare and Nathan J. Mantua, 2001. An historical narrative on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, interdecadal climate variability and ecosystem impacts, Report of a talk presented at the 20th NE Pacific Pink and Chum workshop, Seattle, WA, 22 March 2001. (http://www.iphc.washington.edu/Staff/hare/html/papers/ pcworkshop/pcworkshop.pdf) • Nathan J. Mantua and Steven R. Hare, 2002. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Journal of Oceanography, Vol. 58, p. 35–44. doi:10.1023/A:1015820616384 (http://jisao.washington.edu/PNWimpacts/Publications/Pub166. pdf) • Kevin Ho, 2005. Salmon-omics: Effect of Pacific Decadal Oscillation on Alaskan Chinook Harvests and Market Price. Columbia University. (http://www.columbia.edu/~kjh2103/Salmon-omics-PDO.pdf)

External links
• "The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)" (http://www.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/). JISAO. Retrieved February 13, 2005. • "Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)" (http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/pdo.html). JPL SCIENCE - PDO. Retrieved February 13, 2005.

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Milankovitch cycles
Milankovitch Theory describes the collective effects of changes in the Earth's movements upon its climate, named after Serbian civil engineer and mathematician Milutin Milanković, who worked on it during First World War internment. Milanković mathematically theorised that variations in eccentricity, axial tilt, and precession of the Earth's orbit determined climatic patterns on Earth. The Earth's axis completes one full cycle of precession approximately every 26,000 years. At the same time the elliptical orbit rotates more slowly. The combined effect of the two precessions leads to a 21,000-year period between the seasons and the orbit. In addition, the angle between Earth's rotational axis and the normal to the plane of its orbit (obliquity) oscillates between 22.1 and 24.5 degrees on a 41,000-year cycle. It is currently 23.44 degrees and decreasing. Other astronomical theories were advanced by Joseph Adhemar, James Croll and others, but verification was difficult due to the absence of reliably dated evidence and doubts as to exactly which periods were important. Not until the advent of deep-ocean cores and a seminal paper by Hays, Imbrie, and Shackleton, "Variations in the Earth's Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages", in Science (1976)[1] did the theory attain its present state.

Past and future Milankovitch cycles. VSOP allows prediction of past and future orbital parameters with great accuracy. ε is obliquity (axial tilt). e is eccentricity. ϖ is longitude of perihelion. esin(ϖ) is the precession index, which together with obliquity, controls the seasonal cycle of insolation. is the

calculated daily-averaged insolation at the top of the atmosphere, on the day of the summer solstice at 65 N latitude. Benthic forams and Vostok ice core show two distinct proxies for past global sealevel and temperature, from ocean sediment and Antarctic ice respectively. Vertical gray line is current conditions, at 2 ky A.D.

Earth’s movements
As the Earth spins around its axis and orbits around the Sun, several quasi-periodic variations occur. Although the curves have a large number of sinusoidal components, a few components are dominant.[2] Milankovitch studied changes in the orbital eccentricity, obliquity, and precession of Earth's movements. Such changes in movement and orientation change the amount and location of solar radiation reaching the Earth. This is known as solar forcing (an example of radiative forcing). Changes near the north polar area, about 65 degrees North, are considered important due to the great amount of land, which reacts to such changes quicker than the oceans do. Land masses respond to temperature change more quickly than oceans which self cool by mixing of surface and deep water, the movement of cool and warm currents and suface evaporation, and the fact that the specific heat of solids is generally lower than that of water (i.e., it takes a smaller change in the amount of heat a given mass of a solid contains to change its temperature by the same number of degrees than it would take to change the same mass of water's temperature by the same number of degrees.)

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Orbital shape (eccentricity)

Circular orbit, no eccentricity.

Orbit with 0.5 eccentricity.

The Earth's orbit is an ellipse. The eccentricity is a measure of the departure of this ellipse from circularity. The shape of the Earth's orbit varies in time between nearly circular (low eccentricity of 0.005) and mildly elliptical (high eccentricity of 0.058) with the mean eccentricity of 0.028. The major component of these variations occurs on a period of 413,000 years (eccentricity variation of ±0.012). A number of other terms vary between components 95,000 and 125,000 years (with a beat period 400,000 years), and loosely combine into a 100,000-year cycle (variation of −0.03 to +0.02). The present eccentricity is 0.017. If the Earth were the only planet orbiting our Sun, the eccentricity of its orbit would not perceptibly vary even over a period of a million years. The Earth's eccentricity varies primarily due to interactions with the gravitational fields of Jupiter and Saturn. As the eccentricity of the orbit evolves, the semi-major axis of the orbital ellipse remains unchanged. From the perspective of the perturbation theory used in celestial mechanics to compute the evolution of the orbit, the semi-major axis is an adiabatic invariant. According to Kepler's third law the period of the orbit is determined by the semi-major axis. It follows that the Earth's orbital period, the length of a sidereal year, also remains unchanged as the orbit evolves. As the semi-minor axis is decreased with the eccentricity increase, the seasonal changes increase.[3] But the mean solar irradiation for the planet changes only slightly for small eccentricity, due to Kepler's second law. The same average irradiation does not correspond to the average of corresponding temperatures (due to non-linearity of the Stefan–Boltzmann law). For an irradiation with corresponding temperature 20°C and its symmetric variation ±50% (e.g. from the seasons change[4] ) we obtain asymmetric variation of corresponding temperatures with their average 16°C (i.e. deviation −4°C). And for the irradiation variation during a day (with its average corresponding also to 20°C) we obtain the average temperature (for zero thermal capacity) -113°C. The relative increase in solar irradiation at closest approach to the Sun (perihelion) compared to the irradiation at the furthest distance (aphelion) is slightly larger than 4 times the eccentricity. For the current orbital eccentricity this amounts to a variation in incoming solar radiation of about 6.8%, while the current difference between perihelion and aphelion is only 3.4% (5.1 million km). Perihelion presently occurs around January 3, while aphelion is around July 4. When the orbit is at its most elliptical, the amount of solar radiation at perihelion will be about 23% more than at aphelion.

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Season (Northern Hemisphere) Durations
data from United States Naval Observatory Year 2005 2006 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 Winter Solstice Spring Equinox Summer Solstice Autumn Equinox Winter Solstice Spring Equinox Summer Solstice Autumn Equinox Winter Solstice Date: GMT 12/21/2005 18:35 3/20/2006 18:26 6/21/2006 12:26 9/23/2006 4:03 12/22/2006 0:22 3/21/2007 0:07 6/21/2007 18:06 9/23/2007 9:51 12/22/2007 06:08 [5] Season Duration 88.99 days 92.75 days 93.65 days 89.85 days 88.99 days 92.75 days 93.66 days 89.85 days

Orbital mechanics requires that the length of the seasons be proportional to the areas of the seasonal quadrants, so when the eccentricity is extreme, the seasons on the far side of the orbit can be substantially longer in duration. When autumn and winter occur at closest approach, as is the case currently in the northern hemisphere, the earth is moving at its maximum velocity and therefore autumn and winter are slightly shorter than spring and summer. Thus, summer in the northern hemisphere is 4.66 days longer than winter and spring is 2.9 days longer than autumn.

Axial tilt (obliquity)
The angle of the Earth's axial tilt (obliquity of the ecliptic) varies with respect to the plane of the Earth's orbit. These slow 2.4° obliquity variations are roughly periodic, taking approximately 41,000 years to shift between a tilt of 22.1° and 24.5° and back again. When the obliquity increases, the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in insolation increases, with summers in both hemispheres receiving more radiative flux from the Sun, and the winters less radiative flux. But these changes of opposite sign in the summer and winter are not of the same magnitude. The annual mean insolation increases in high latitudes with increasing obliquity, while lower latitudes experience a reduction in insolation. Cooler summers are suspected of encouraging 22.1-24.5° range of Earth's obliquity. the start of an ice age by melting less of the previous winter's ice and snow. So can it be argued that lower obliquity favors ice ages both because of the mean insolation reduction in high latitudes as well as the additional reduction in summer insolation. However no significant climate changes are associated with extreme axial tilts. Scientists using computer models to study more extreme tilts than those that actually occur have concluded that climate extremes at high obliquity would be particularly threatening to advanced forms of life that presently exist on Earth. They noted that high obliquity would not likely sterilize a planet completely, but would make it harder for fragile, warm-blooded land-based life to thrive as it does today.[6] Currently the Earth is tilted at 23.44 degrees from its orbital plane, roughly halfway between its extreme values. The tilt is in the decreasing phase of its cycle, and will reach its minimum value around the year 10,000 CE. This trend, by itself, would tend to make winters warmer and summers colder; however increases in greenhouse gases may

Milankovitch cycles overpower this effect.

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Axial precession
Precession is the trend in the direction of the Earth's axis of rotation relative to the fixed stars, with a period of roughly 26,000 years. This gyroscopic motion is due to the tidal forces exerted by the sun and the moon on the solid Earth, which has the shape of an oblate spheroid rather than a sphere. The sun and moon contribute roughly equally to this effect. When the axis points toward the Sun in perihelion, one polar hemisphere has a greater difference between the seasons while the other has milder seasons. The hemisphere that is in summer at perihelion receives much of the corresponding increase in solar radiation, but that same hemisphere in winter at aphelion has a colder winter. The other hemisphere will have a relatively warmer winter and cooler summer.

Precessional movement.

When the Earth's axis is aligned such that aphelion and perihelion occur near the equinoxes, the Northern and Southern Hemispheres will have similar contrasts in the seasons. At present, perihelion occurs during the southern hemisphere's summer, and aphelion is reached during the southern winter. Thus the southern hemisphere seasons are somewhat more extreme than the northern hemisphere seasons, when other factors are equal.

Apsidal precession
In addition, the orbital ellipse itself precesses in space, primarily as a result of interactions with Jupiter and Saturn. This orbital precession is in the same sense to the gyroscopic motion of the axis of rotation, shortening the period of the precession of the equinoxes with respect to the perihelion from 25,771.5 to ~21,636 years.

Orbital inclination
The inclination of Earth's orbit drifts up and down relative to its present orbit with a cycle having a period of about 70,000 years. Milankovitch did not study this three-dimensional movement. This movement is known as "precession of the ecliptic" or "planetary precession".

Planets orbiting the Sun follow elliptical (oval) orbits that rotate gradually over time (apsidal precession). The eccentricity of this ellipse is exaggerated for visualization. Most orbits in the Solar System have a much smaller eccentricity, making them nearly circular.

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More recent researchers noted this drift and that the orbit also moves relative to the orbits of the other planets. The invariable plane, the plane that represents the angular momentum of the solar system, is approximately the orbital plane of Jupiter. The inclination of the Earth's orbit has a 100,000 year cycle relative to the invariable plane, this is very similar to the 100,000 year eccentricity period. This 100,000-year cycle closely matches the 100,000-year pattern of ice ages. It has been proposed that a disk of dust and other debris exists in the invariable Effects of apsidal precession on the seasons plane, and this affects the Earth's climate through several possible means. The Earth presently moves through this plane around January 9 and July 9, when there is an increase in radar-detected meteors and meteor-related noctilucent clouds.[7] [8] A study of the chronology of Antarctic ice cores using oxygen-nitrogen ratios in air bubbles trapped in the ice, which appear to respond directly to the local insolation, concluded that the climatic response documented in the ice cores was driven by northern hemisphere insolation as proposed by the Milankovitch hypothesis (Kawamura et al., Nature, 23 August 2007, vol 448, p912-917). This is an additional validation of the Milankovitch hypothesis by a relatively novel method, and is inconsistent with the "inclination" theory of the 100,000-year cycle.

Problems
Because the observed periodicities of climate fit so well with the orbital periods, the orbital theory has overwhelming support. Nonetheless, there are several difficulties in reconciling theory with observations.

100,000-year problem
The 100,000-year problem is that the eccentricity variations have a significantly smaller impact on solar forcing than precession or obliquity and hence might be expected to produce the weakest effects. However, observations show that during the last 1 million years, the strongest climate signal is the 100,000-year cycle. In addition, despite the relatively great 100,000-year cycle, some have argued that the length of the climate record is insufficient to establish a statistically significant relationship between climate and eccentricity [9] variations. Some models can however reproduce the 100,000 year cycles as a result of non-linear interactions between small changes in the Earth's orbit and internal oscillations of the climate system.[10] [11]

The nature of sediments can vary in a cyclic fashion, and these cycles can be displayed in the sedimentary record. Here, cycles can be observed in the colouration and resistance of different strata

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400,000-year problem
The 400,000-year problem is that the eccentricity variations have a strong 400,000-year cycle. That cycle is only clearly present in climate records older than the last million years. If the 100ka variations are having such a strong effect, the 400ka variations might also be expected to be apparent. This is also known as the stage 11 problem, after the interglacial in marine isotopic stage 11 which would be unexpected if the 400,000-year cycle has an impact on climate. The relative absence of this periodicity in the marine isotopic record may be due, at least in part, to the response times of the climate system components involved—in particular, the carbon cycle.

Stage 5 problem
The stage 5 problem refers to the timing of the penultimate interglacial (in marine isotopic stage 5) which appears to have begun ten thousand years in advance of the solar forcing hypothesized to have caused it (the causality problem).

Effect exceeds cause
The effects of these variations are primarily believed to be due to variations in the intensity of solar radiation upon various parts of the globe. Observations show climate behavior is much more intense than the calculated variations. Various internal characteristics of climate systems are believed to be sensitive to the insolation changes, causing amplification (positive feedback) and damping responses (negative feedback).

The unsplit peak problem
The unsplit peak problem refers to the fact that 420,000 years of ice core data from Vostok, Antarctica research station. eccentricity has cleanly resolved variations at both the 95 and 125ka periods. A sufficiently long, well-dated record of climate change should be able to resolve both frequencies,[12] but some researchers interpret climate records of the last million years as showing only a single spectral peak at 100ka periodicity. It is debatable whether the quality of existing data ought to be sufficient to resolve both frequencies over the last million years.

The transition problem
The transition problem refers to the switch in the frequency of climate variations 1 million years ago. From 1–3 million years, climate had a dominant mode matching the 41ka cycle in obliquity. After 1 million years ago, this switchd to a 100ka variation matching eccentricity, for which no reason has been established.

Variations of Cyle Times, curves determined from ocean sediments

Milankovitch cycles

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Identifying dominant factor
Milankovich himself believed that reductions in summer insolation in northern high latitudes was the dominant factor leading to glaciation, which led to him (incorrectly) deducing an approximate 41kyr period for ice ages.[13] Subsequent research has shown that the 100kyr eccentricity cycle is more important, resulting in 100,000-year ice age cycles of the Quaternary glaciation over the last few million years.

Theory incomplete
The Milankovitch theory of climate change is not perfectly worked out; in particular, the greatest observed response is at the 100,000-year timescale, but the forcing is apparently small at this scale, in regard to the ice ages.[14] Various explanations for this discrepancy have been proposed, including frequency modulation[15] or various feedbacks (from carbon dioxide, cosmic rays, or from ice sheet dynamics).

Present and future conditions
As mentioned above, at present, perihelion occurs during the southern hemisphere's summer and aphelion during the southern winter. Thus the southern hemisphere seasons should tend to be somewhat more extreme Past and future of daily average insolation at top of the atmosphere on the day of the than the northern hemisphere seasons. summer solstice, at 65 N latitude. The green curve is with eccentricity e hypothetically set to 0. The red curve uses the actual (predicted) value of e. Blue dot is current conditions, at The relatively low eccentricity of the 2 ky AD present orbit results in a 6.8% difference in the amount of solar radiation during summer in the two hemispheres. Since orbital variations are predictable,[16] if one has a model that relates orbital variations to climate, it is possible to run such a model forward to "predict" future climate. Two caveats are necessary: that anthropogenic effects may modify or even overwhelm orbital effects and that the mechanism by which orbital forcing influences climate is not well understood. The amount of solar radiation (insolation) in the Northern Hemisphere at 65° N seems to be related to occurrence of an ice age. Astronomical calculations show that 65° N summer insolation should increase gradually over the next 25,000 years. A regime of eccentricity lower than the current value will last for about the next 100,000 years. Changes in northern hemisphere summer insolation will be dominated by changes in obliquity ε. No declines in 65° N summer insolation, sufficient to cause a glacial period, are expected in the next 50,000 years. An often-cited 1980 study by Imbrie and Imbrie determined that, "Ignoring anthropogenic and other possible sources of variation acting at frequencies higher than one cycle per 19,000 years, this model predicts that the long-term cooling trend which began some 6,000 years ago will continue for the next 23,000 years."[17] More recent work by Berger and Loutre suggests that the current warm climate may last another 50,000 years.[18] The best chances for a decline in northern hemisphere summer insolation that would be sufficient for triggering a glacial period is at 130,000 years or possibly as far out at 620,000 years.[19]

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References
[1] Hays, J.D.; Imbrie, J.; Shackleton, N.J. (1976). "Variations in the Earth's Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages". Science 194 (4270): 1121–1132. doi:10.1126/science.194.4270.1121. PMID 17790893. [2] Girkin, Amy Negich (2005) (PDF). A Computational Study on the Evolution of the Dynamics of the Obliquity of the Earth (http:/ / etd. ohiolink. edu/ send-pdf. cgi/ Girkin, Amy Negich. pdf?miami1133292203) (Master of Science thesis). Miami University. . [3] Berger A., Loutre M.F., Mélice J.L. (2006). "Equatorial insolation: from precession harmonics to eccentricity frequencies" (http:/ / www. clim-past-discuss. net/ 2/ 519/ 2006/ cpd-2-519-2006. pdf) (PDF). Clim. Past Discuss. 2 (4): 519–533. doi:10.5194/cpd-2-519-2006. . [4] "Deliverables of IEA SHC - Task 26: Solar Combisystems" (PDF). [5] http:/ / aa. usno. navy. mil/ data/ docs/ EarthSeasons. php [6] Williams, D.M., Pollard, P. (2002). "Earth-like worlds on eccentric orbits: excursions beyond the habitable zone" (http:/ / physics. bd. psu. edu/ faculty/ williams/ 3DEarthClimate/ ija2003. pdf). Inter. J. Astrobio. 1: 21–9. . [7] Richard A Muller, Gordon J MacDonald (1997). "Glacial Cycles and Astronomical Forcing". Science 277 (1997/07/11): 215–8. doi:10.1126/science.277.5323.215. [8] "Origin of the 100 kyr Glacial Cycle: eccentricity or orbital inclination?" (http:/ / muller. lbl. gov/ papers/ nature. html). Richard A Muller. . Retrieved March 2, 2005. [9] Wunsch, Carl (2004). "Quantitative estimate of the Milankovitch-forced contribution to observed Quaternary climate change". Quaternary Science Reviews 23 (9–10): 1001–12. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2004.02.014. [10] Ghil, Michael (1994). "Cryothermodynamics: the chaotic dynamics of paleoclimate". Physica D 77 (1–3): 130–159. doi:10.1016/0167-2789(94)90131-7. [11] Gildor H, Tziperman E (2000). "Sea ice as the glacial cycles' climate switch: Role of seasonal and orbital forcing". Paleoceanography 15 (6): 605–615. Bibcode 2000PalOc..15..605G. doi:10.1029/1999PA000461. [12] Zachos JC, Shackleton NJ, Revenaugh JS, Pälike H, Flower BP (April 2001). "Climate response to orbital forcing across the Oligocene-Miocene boundary" (http:/ / www. scencemag. org/ cgi/ pmidlookup?view=long& pmid=11303100). Science 292 (5515): 27–48. doi:10.1126/science.1058288. PMID 11303100. . [13] Imbrie and Imbrie; Ice Ages, solving the mystery, p 158 [14] Milankovitch, Milutin (1998) [1941]. Canon of Insolation and the Ice Age Problem. Belgrade: Zavod za Udz̆benike i Nastavna Sredstva. ISBN 8617066199.; see also "Astronomical Theory of Climate Change" (http:/ / www. ncdc. noaa. gov/ paleo/ milankovitch. html). . [15] http:/ / www. geolab. unc. edu/ faculty/ rial/ GPCRial2. pdf [16] F. Varadi, B. Runnegar, M. Ghil (2003). "Successive Refinements in Long-Term Integrations of Planetary Orbits" (http:/ / astrobiology. ucla. edu/ OTHER/ SSO/ SolarSysInt. pdf) (PDF). The Astrophysical Journal 592: 620–630. Bibcode 2003ApJ...592..620V. doi:10.1086/375560. . [17] J Imbrie, J Z Imbrie (1980). "Modeling the Climatic Response to Orbital Variations". Science 207 (1980/02/29): 943–953. doi:10.1126/science.207.4434.943. PMID 17830447. [18] Berger A, Loutre MF (2002). "Climate: An exceptionally long interglacial ahead?". Science 297 (5585): 1287–8. doi:10.1126/science.1076120. PMID 12193773. [19] http:/ / amper. ped. muni. cz/ gw/ articles/ html. format/ orb_forc. html

Further reading
• Roe G (2006). "In defense of Milankovitch". Geophysical Research Letters 33 (24): L24703. Bibcode 2006GeoRL..3324703R. doi:10.1029/2006GL027817. This shows that Milankovitch theory fits the data extremely well, over the past million years, provided that we consider derivatives. • Zachos J, Pagani M, Sloan L, Thomas E, Billups K (2001). "Trends, Rhythms, and Aberrations in Global Climate 65 Ma to Present". Science 292 (5517): 686–693. doi:10.1126/science.1059412. PMID 11326091. This review article discusses cycles and great-scale changes in the global climate during the Cenozoic Era.

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External links
• Milankovitch Cycles and Glaciation (http://www.homepage.montana.edu/~geol445/hyperglac/time1/ milankov.htm) • The Milankovitch band (http://web.archive.org/web/20080729060933/http://www.agu.org/revgeophys/ overpe00/node6.html), Internet Archive of American Geophysical Union lecture • Some history of the adoption of the Milankovitch hypothesis (and an alternative) (http://muller.lbl.gov/pages/ IceAgeBook/IceAgeTheories.html) • More detail on orbital obliquity also matching climate patterns (http://muller.lbl.gov/papers/sciencespectra. htm) • Graph of variation in insolation (http://www.museum.state.il.us/exhibits/ice_ages/insolation_graph.html) Note 20,000 year, 100,000 year, and 400,000 year cycles are clearly visible. • "Milutin Milankovitch" (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Milankovitch/milankovitch.php). On the Shoulders of Giants. Retrieved January 15, 2010. • Potential Problems with Milankovitch Theory (http://www.detectingdesign.com/milankovitch.html) by Sean Pitman (http://www.detectingdesign.com) • The Seasons (http://aa.usno.navy.mil/faq/docs/seasons_orbit.php) • The NOAA page on Climate Forcing Data (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/forcing.html) includes (calculated) data on orbital variations over the last 50 million years and for the coming 20 million years. • The orbital simulations by Varadi, Ghil and Runnegar (2003) (http://astrobiology.ucla.edu/OTHER/SSO/) provide another, slightly different series for orbital eccentricity, and also a series for orbital inclination • ABC: Earth wobbles linked to extinctions (http://www.abc.net.au/science/news/stories/2006/1763328.htm)

Orbital forcing
Orbital forcing is the effect on climate of slow changes in the tilt of the Earth's axis and shape of the orbit (see Milankovitch cycles). These orbital changes change the total amount of sunlight reaching the Earth by up to 25% at mid-latitudes (from 400 to 500 Wm−2 at latitudes of 60 degrees). In this context, the term "forcing" signifies a physical process that affects the Earth's climate. This mechanism is believed to be responsible for the timing of the ice age cycles. A strict application of the Milankovitch theory does not allow the prediction of a "sudden" ice age (rapid being anything under a century or two), since the fastest orbital period is about 20,000 years. The timing of past glacial periods coincides very well with the predictions of the Milankovitch theory, and these effects can be calculated into the future.

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Overview
It is sometimes asserted that the length of the current interglacial temperature peak will be similar to the length of the preceding interglacial peak (Sangamonian/Eem Stage), and that therefore we might be nearing the end of this warm period. However, this conclusion is probably mistaken: the lengths of previous interglacials were not particularly regular (see graphic at right). Berger and Loutre (2002) argue that “with or without human perturbations, the current warm climate may last another 50,000 years. The reason is a minimum in the eccentricity of Earth's orbit around the Sun.”[1] Also, Archer and Ganopolski (2005) report that probable future CO2 emissions may be enough to suppress the glacial cycle for the next 500 kyr.[2]

Note in the graphic the strong 100,000 year periodicity of the cycles, and the striking asymmetry of the curves. This asymmetry is believed to result from complex interactions of feedback mechanisms. It has been observed that ice ages deepen by progressive steps, but the recovery to interglacial conditions occurs in one big step. Orbital mechanics require that the length of the seasons be proportional to the swept areas of the seasonal quadrants, so when the eccentricity is extreme, the seasons on the far side of the orbit can last substantially longer. Today, when autumn and winter in the northern hemisphere occur at closest approach, the earth is moving at its maximum velocity and therefore autumn and winter are slightly shorter than spring and summer. Today, northern hemisphere summer is 4.66 days longer than winter and spring is 2.9 days longer than autumn.[3] As axial precession changes the place in the Earth's orbit where the solstices and equinoxes occur, Northern hemisphere winters will get longer and summers will get shorter, eventually creating conditions believed to be favorable for triggering the next glacial period. The arrangements of land masses on the Earth's surface are believed to reinforce the orbital forcing effects. Comparisons of plate tectonic continent reconstructions and paleoclimatic studies show that the Milankovitch cycles have the greatest effect during geologic eras when landmasses have been concentrated in polar regions, as is the case today. Greenland, Antarctica, and the northern portions of Europe, Asia, and North America are situated such that a minor change in solar energy will tip the balance between year-round snow/ice preservation and complete summer melting. The presence of snow and ice is a well-understood positive feedback mechanism for climate.

Ice core data. Note length of glacial cycles averages ~100,000 years. Blue curve is temperature, green curve is CO2, and red curve is windblown glacial dust (loess). Today's date is on the left side of the graph.

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References
[1] Berger, A.; Loutre, M. F. (2002). "An Exceptionally Long Interglacial Ahead?". Science 297 (5585): 1287–1288. doi:10.1126/science.1076120. PMID 12193773. [2] Archer, David; Ganopolski, Andrey (2005). "A Movable Trigger: Fossil Fuel CO2 And The Onset Of The Next Glaciation". Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems 6: Q05003. doi:10.1029/2004GC000891. [3] Benson, Gregory (2007-12-11). "Global Warming, Ice Ages, and Sea Level Changes: Something new or an astronomical phenomenon occurring in present day?" (https:/ / sites. google. com/ site/ bensonfamilyhomepage/ Home/ ice-age-and-global-warming). .

Further reading
• Hays, J. D.; Imbrie, John; Shackleton, N. J. (1976). "Variations in the Earth's Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages". Science 194 (4270): 1121–1132. doi:10.1126/science.194.4270.1121. PMID 17790893. • Hays, James D. (1996). Schneider, Stephen H.. ed. Encyclopedia of Weather and Climate. New York: Oxford University Press. pp. 507–508. ISBN 0195094859. • Lutgens, Frederick K.; Tarbuck, Edward J. (1998). The Atmosphere. An Introduction to Meteorology. Upper Saddle River, N.J.: Prentice-Hall. ISBN 0137429746. • National Research Council (1982). Solar Variability, Weather, and Climate. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. p. 7. ISBN 0309032849.

External links
• The NOAA page on Climate Forcing Data (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/forcing.html) includes (calculated) data on orbital variations over the last 50 million years and for the coming 20 million years • The orbital simulations by Varadi, Ghil and Runnegar (2003) (http://astrobiology.ucla.edu/OTHER/SSO/) provide another, slightly different series for orbital eccentricity

Solar variation
Solar variation is the change in the amount of radiation emitted by the Sun and in its spectral distribution over years to millennia. These variations have periodic components, the main one being the approximately 11-year solar cycle (or sunspot cycle). The changes also have aperiodic fluctuations.[1] In recent decades, solar activity has been measured by satellites, while before it was estimated using 'proxy' variables. Scientists studying climate change are interested in understanding the effects of variations in the total and spectral solar irradiance on Earth and its climate.

One composite of the last 30 years of solar variability

Variations in total solar irradiance were too small to detect with technology available before the satellite era, although the small fraction in ultra-violet light varies by a few percent. Total solar output is now measured to vary (over the last three 11-year sunspot cycles) by approximately 0.1%[2] [3] [4] or about 1.3 Watts per square meter (W/m2) peak-to-trough during the 11-year sunspot cycle. The amount of solar radiation received at the outer surface of Earth's atmosphere averages 1366 W/m2.[5] [6] [7] There are no direct measurements of the longer-term variation, and interpretations of proxy measures of variations differ. The intensity of solar radiation reaching Earth has been

Solar variation relatively constant through the last 2000 years, with variations of around 0.1-0.2%.[8] [9] [10] Solar variation, together with volcanic activity probably contributed to climate change, for example during the Maunder Minimum. However, changes in solar brightness are too weak to explain recent climate change.[11]

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History of study into solar variations
The longest recorded aspect of solar variations are changes in sunspots. The first record of sunspots dates to around 800 BC in China and the oldest surviving drawing of a sunspot dates to 1128. In 1610, astronomers began using the telescope to make observations of sunspots and their motions. Initial study was focused on 400 year history of sunspot numbers. their nature and behavior.[12] Although the physical aspects of sunspots were not identified until the 20th century, observations continued. Study was hampered during the 17th century due to the low number of sunspots during what is now recognized as an extended period of low solar activity, known as the Maunder Minimum. By the 19th century, there was a long enough record of sunspot numbers to infer periodic cycles in sunspot activity. In 1845, Princeton University professors Joseph Henry and Stephen Alexander observed the Sun with a thermopile and determined that sunspots emitted less radiation than surrounding areas of the Sun. The emission of higher than average amounts of radiation later were observed from the solar faculae.[13] Around 1900, researchers began to explore connections between solar variations and weather on Earth. Of particular note is the work of Charles Greeley Abbot. Abbot was assigned by the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory (SAO) to detect changes in the radiation of the Sun. His team had to begin by inventing instruments to measure solar radiation. Later, when Abbot was head of the SAO, it established a solar station at Calama, Chile to complement its data from Mount Wilson Observatory. He detected 27 harmonic periods within the 273-month Hale cycles, including 7, 13, and 39 month patterns. He looked for connections to weather by means such as matching opposing solar trends during a month to opposing temperature and precipitation trends in cities. With the advent of dendrochronology, scientists such as Waldo S. Glock attempted to connect variation in tree growth to periodic solar variations in the extant record and infer long-term secular variability in the solar constant from similar variations in millennial-scale chronologies.[14] Statistical studies that correlate weather and climate with solar activity have been popular for centuries, dating back at least to 1801, when William Herschel noted an apparent connection between wheat prices and sunspot records.[15] They now often involve high-density global datasets compiled from surface networks and weather satellite observations and/or the forcing of climate models with synthetic or observed solar variability to investigate the detailed processes by which the effects of solar variations propagate through the Earth's climate system.[16]

Solar activity and irradiance measurement
Direct irradiance measurements have only been available during the last three cycles and are based on a composite of many different observing satellites.[17] [18] However, the correlation between irradiance measurements and other proxies of solar activity make it reasonable to estimate past solar activity. Most important among these proxies is the record of sunspot observations that has been recorded since ~1610. Since sunspots and associated faculae are directly responsible for small changes in the brightness of the sun, they are closely correlated to changes in solar output. Direct measurements of radio emissions from the Sun at 10.7 cm also provide a proxy of solar activity that can be

Solar variation measured from the ground since the Earth's atmosphere is transparent at this wavelength. Lastly, solar flares are a type of solar activity that can impact human life on Earth by affecting electrical systems, especially satellites. Flares usually occur in the presence of sunspots, and hence the two are correlated, but flares themselves make only tiny perturbations of the solar luminosity. Recently, it has been claimed that the total solar irradiance is varying in ways that are not duplicated by changes in sunspot observations or radio emissions. However, this conclusion is disputed. Some believe that shifts in irradiance may be the result of calibration problems in the measuring satellites.[19] [20] These speculations also admit the possibility that a small long-term trend might exist in solar irradiance.[21]

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Sunspots
Sunspots are relatively dark areas on the radiating 'surface' (photosphere) of the Sun where intense magnetic activity inhibits convection and cools the photosphere. Faculae are slightly brighter areas that form around sunspot groups as the flow of energy to the photosphere is re-established and both the normal flow and the sunspot-blocked energy elevate the radiating 'surface' temperature. Scientists have speculated on possible relationships between sunspots and solar luminosity since the historical sunspot area record began in the 17th century.[22] [23] Graph showing proxies of solar activity, including changes in sunspot number and cosmogenic isotope production. Correlations are now known to exist with decreases in luminosity caused by sunspots (generally < - 0.3 %) and increases (generally < + 0.05 %) caused both by faculae that are associated with active regions as well as the magnetically active 'bright network'.[24] Modulation of the solar luminosity by magnetically active regions was confirmed by satellite measurements of total solar irradiance (TSI) by the ACRIM1 experiment on the Solar Maximum Mission (launched in 1980).[24] The modulations were later confirmed in the results of the ERB experiment launched on the Nimbus 7 satellite in 1978.[25] Sunspots in magnetically active regions are cooler and 'darker' than the average photosphere and cause temporary decreases in TSI of as much as 0.3 %. Faculae in magnetically active regions are hotter and 'brighter' than the average photosphere and cause temporary increases in TSI. The net effect during periods of enhanced solar magnetic activity is increased radiant output of the sun because faculae are larger and persist longer than sunspots. There had been some suggestion that variations in the solar diameter might cause variations in output. But recent work, mostly from the Michelson Doppler Imager instrument on SOHO, shows these changes to be small, about 0.001% (Dziembowski et al., 2001). Various studies have been made using sunspot number (for which records extend over hundreds of years) as a proxy for solar output (for which good records only extend for a few decades). Also, ground instruments have been calibrated by comparison with high-altitude and orbital instruments. Researchers have combined present readings and factors to adjust historical data. Other proxy data — such as the abundance of cosmogenic isotopes — have been used to infer solar magnetic activity and thus likely brightness. Sunspot activity has been measured using the Wolf number for about 300 years. This index (also known as the Zürich number) uses both the number of sunspots and the number of groups of sunspots to compensate for variations in measurement. A 2003 study by Ilya Usoskin of the University of Oulu, Finland found that sunspots had

Solar variation been more frequent since the 1940s than in the previous 1150 years.[26] Sunspot numbers over the past 11,400 years have been reconstructed using dendrochronologically dated radiocarbon concentrations. The level of solar activity during the past 70 years is exceptional — the last period of similar magnitude occurred over 8,000 years ago. The Sun was at a similarly high level of magnetic activity for only ~10% of the past 11,400 years, and almost all of the earlier high-activity periods were shorter than the present episode.[27]

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Reconstruction of solar activity over 11,400 years. Period of equally high activity over 8,000 years ago marked.

Solar activity events recorded in radiocarbon. Present period is on left. Values since 1900 not shown.

Solar activity events and approximate dates
Event Oort minimum (see Medieval Warm Period) Start 1040 End 1080 1250 1350 1550 1715 1820 present

Medieval maximum (see Medieval Warm Period) 1100 Wolf minimum Spörer Minimum Maunder Minimum Dalton Minimum Modern Maximum 1280 1450 1645 1790 1900

A list of historical Grand minima of solar activity [28] includes also Grand minima ca. 690 AD, 360 BC, 770 BC, 1390 BC, 2860 BC, 3340 BC, 3500 BC, 3630 BC, 3940 BC, 4230 BC, 4330 BC, 5260 BC, 5460 BC, 5620 BC, 5710 BC, 5990 BC, 6220 BC, 6400 BC, 7040 BC, 7310 BC, 7520 BC, 8220 BC, 9170 BC.

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Solar cycles
Solar cycles are cyclic changes in behavior of the Sun. Many possible patterns have been suggested; only the 11 and 22 year cycles are clear in the observations. • 11 years: Most obvious is a gradual increase and more rapid decrease of the number of sunspots over a period ranging from 9 to 12 years, called the Schwabe cycle, named after Heinrich Schwabe. Differential rotation of the sun's convection zone (as a function of latitude) consolidates magnetic flux 2,300 year Hallstatt solar variation cycles. tubes, increases their magnetic field strength and makes them buoyant (see Babcock Model). As they rise through the solar atmosphere they partially block the convective flow of energy, cooling their region of the photosphere, causing 'sunspots'. The Sun's apparent surface, the photosphere, radiates more actively when there are more sunspots. Satellite monitoring of solar luminosity since 1980 has shown there is a direct relationship between the solar activity (sunspot) cycle and luminosity with a solar cycle peak-to-peak amplitude of about 0.1 %.[2] Luminosity has also been found to decrease by as much as 0.3 % on a 10 day timescale when large groups of sunspots rotate across the Earth's view and increase by as much as 0.05 % for up to 6 months due to faculae associated with the large sunspot groups.[24] • 22 years: Hale cycle, named after George Ellery Hale. The magnetic field of the Sun reverses during each Schwabe cycle, so the magnetic poles return to the same state after two reversals. • 87 years (70–100 years): Gleissberg cycle, named after Wolfgang Gleißberg, is thought to be an amplitude modulation of the 11-year Schwabe Cycle (Sonnett and Finney, 1990),[29] Braun, et al., (2005).[30] • 210 years: Suess cycle (a.k.a. de Vries cycle). Braun, et al., (2005).[30] • 2,300 years: Hallstatt cycle[31] [32] • 6000 years (Xapsos and Burke, 2009).[33] Other patterns have been detected: • In carbon-14: 105, 131, 232, 385, 504, 805, 2,241 years (Damon and Sonnett, 1991). • During the Upper Permian 240 million years ago, mineral layers created in the Castile Formation show cycles of 2,500 years. The sensitivity of climate to cyclical variations in solar forcing will be higher for longer cycles due to the thermal inertia of the ocean, which acts to damp high frequencies. Using a phenomenological approach, Scafetta and West (2005) found that the climate was 1.5 times as sensitive to 22 year cyclical forcing relative to 11 year cyclical forcing, and that the thermal inertial induced a lag of approximately 2.2 years in cyclic climate response in the temperature data.[34] Predictions based on patterns • A simple model based on emulating harmonics by multiplying the basic 11-year cycle by powers of 2 produced results similar to Holocene behavior. Extrapolation suggests a gradual cooling during the next few centuries with intermittent minor warmups and a return to near Little Ice Age conditions within the next 500 years. This cool period then may be followed approximately 1,500 years from now by a return to altithermal conditions similar to the previous Holocene Maximum.[35] • There is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years (Gleisberg cycle). These characteristics indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 145±30 in 2010 while the following cycle should have a maximum of about 70±30 in 2023.[36]

Solar variation • Because carbon-14 cycles are quasi periodic, Damon and Sonett (1989) predict future climate:[37] Solar irradiance, or insolation, is the amount of sunlight which reaches the Earth. The equipment used might measure optical brightness, total radiation, or radiation in various frequencies. Historical estimates use various measurements and proxies.

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Solar irradiance spectrum above atmosphere and at surface

Cycle length

Cycle name

Last positive carbon-14 anomaly AD 1922 (cool) AD 1898 (cool) AD 1986 (cool)

Next "warming"

232 208 88

--?-Suess Gleisberg

AD 2038 AD 2210 AD 2030

Solar irradiance of Earth and its surface
There are two common meanings: • the radiation reaching the upper atmosphere • the radiation reaching some point within the atmosphere, including the surface. Various gases within the atmosphere absorb some solar radiation at different wavelengths, and clouds and dust also affect it. Measurements above the atmosphere are needed to determine variations in solar output, to avoid the confounding effects of changes within the atmosphere. There is some evidence that sunshine at the Earth's surface has been decreasing in the last 50 years (see global dimming) possibly caused by increased atmospheric pollution, whilst over roughly the same timespan solar output has been nearly constant.

Solar variation Milankovitch cycle variations Some variations in insolation are not due to solar changes but rather due to the Earth moving closer or further from the Sun, or changes in the latitudinal distribution of radiation. These have caused variations of as much as 25% (locally; global average changes are much smaller) in solar insolation over long periods. The most recent significant event was an axial tilt of 24° during boreal summer at near the time of the Holocene climatic optimum.

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Solar interactions with Earth
There are several hypotheses for how solar variations may affect Earth. Some variations, such as changes in the size of the Sun, are presently only of interest in the field of astronomy.

Changes in total irradiance
• Total solar irradiance changes slowly on decadal and longer timescales. • The variation during recent solar magnetic activity cycles has been about 0.1% (peak-to-peak).[2] • Variations corresponding to solar changes with periods of 9–13, 18–25, and >100 years have been detected in sea-surface temperatures. • In contrast to older reconstructions,[38] most recent reconstructions of total solar irradiance point to an only small increase of only about 0.05 % to 0.1 % between Maunder Minimum and the present.[39] [40] [41] • Different composite reconstructions of total solar irradiance observations by satellites show different trends since 1980; see the global warming section below.

Changes in ultraviolet irradiance
• Ultraviolet irradiance (EUV) varies by approximately 1.5 percent from solar maxima to minima, for 200 to 300 nm UV.[42] • Energy changes in the UV wavelengths involved in production and loss of ozone have atmospheric effects. • The 30 hPa atmospheric pressure level has changed height in phase with solar activity during the last 4 solar cycles. • UV irradiance increase causes higher ozone production, leading to stratospheric heating and to poleward displacements in the stratospheric and tropospheric wind systems. • A proxy study estimates that UV has increased by 3% since the Maunder Minimum.

Changes in the solar wind and the Sun's magnetic flux
• A more active solar wind and stronger magnetic field reduces the cosmic rays striking the Earth's atmosphere. • Variations in the solar wind affect the size and intensity of the heliosphere, the volume larger than the Solar System filled with solar wind particles. • Cosmogenic production of 14C, 10Be and 36Cl show changes tied to solar activity. • Cosmic ray ionization in the upper atmosphere does change, but significant effects are not obvious. • As the solar coronal-source magnetic flux doubled during the past century, the cosmic-ray flux has decreased by about 15%. • The Sun's total magnetic flux rose by a factor of 1.41 from 1964–1996 and by a factor of 2.3 since 1901.

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Effects on clouds
• Cosmic rays have been hypothesized to affect formation of clouds through possible effects on production of cloud condensation nuclei. Observational evidence for such a relationship is inconclusive. • 1983–1994 data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) showed that global low cloud formation was highly correlated with cosmic ray flux; subsequent to this the correlation breaks down.[43]

Other effects due to solar variation
Interaction of solar particles, the solar magnetic field, and the Earth's magnetic field, cause variations in the particle and electromagnetic fields at the surface of the planet. Extreme solar events can affect electrical devices. Weakening of the Sun's magnetic field is believed to increase the number of interstellar cosmic rays which reach Earth's atmosphere, altering the types of particles reaching the surface. It has been speculated that a change in cosmic rays could cause an increase in certain types of clouds, affecting Earth's albedo.

Geomagnetic effects
The Earth's polar aurorae are visual displays created by interactions between the solar wind, the solar magnetosphere, the Earth's magnetic field, and the Earth's atmosphere. Variations in any of these affect aurora displays. Sudden changes can cause the intense disturbances in the Earth's magnetic fields which are called geomagnetic storms.

Solar proton events

Solar particles interact with Earth's magnetosphere

Energetic protons can reach Earth within 30 minutes of a major flare's peak. During such a solar proton event, Earth is showered in energetic solar particles (primarily protons) released from the flare site. Some of these particles spiral down Earth's magnetic field lines, penetrating the upper layers of our atmosphere where they produce additional ionization and may produce a significant increase in the radiation environment.

Galactic cosmic rays
An increase in solar activity (more sunspots) is accompanied by an increase in the "solar wind," which is an outflow of ionized particles, mostly protons and electrons, from the sun. The Earth's geomagnetic field, the solar wind, and the solar magnetic field deflect galactic cosmic rays (GCR). A decrease in solar activity increases the GCR penetration of the troposphere and stratosphere. GCR particles are the primary source of ionization in the troposphere above 1 km (below 1 km, radon is a dominant source of ionization in many areas). Levels of GCRs have been indirectly recorded by their influence on the Solar wind and magnetic field create heliosphere production of carbon-14 and beryllium-10. The Hallstatt solar cycle around solar system. length of approximately 2300 years is reflected by climatic Dansgaard-Oeschger events. The 80–90 year solar Gleissberg cycles appear to vary in length depending upon the lengths of the concurrent 11 year solar cycles, and there also appear to be similar climate patterns occurring on this time scale.

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Cloud effects
Changes in ionization affect the abundance of aerosols that serve as the nuclei of condensation for cloud formation.[44] As a result, ionization levels potentially affect levels of condensation, low clouds, relative humidity, and albedo due to clouds. Clouds formed from greater amounts of condensation nuclei are brighter, longer lived, and likely to produce less precipitation. Changes of 3–4% in cloudiness and concurrent changes in cloud top temperatures have been correlated to the 11 and 22 year solar (sunspot) cycles, with increased GCR levels during "antiparallel" cycles.[45] Global average cloud cover change has been found to be 1.5–2%. Several studies of GCR and cloud cover variations have found positive correlation at latitudes greater than 50° and negative correlation at lower latitudes.[44] However, not all scientists accept this correlation as statistically significant, and some that do attribute it to other solar variability (e.g. UV or total irradiance variations) rather than directly to GCR changes.[46] [47] Difficulties in interpreting such correlations include the fact that many aspects of solar variability change at similar times, and some climate systems have delayed responses.

Carbon-14 production
The production of carbon-14 (radiocarbon: 14 C) also is related to solar activity. Carbon-14 is produced in the upper atmosphere when cosmic ray bombardment of atmospheric nitrogen (14N) induces the Nitrogen to undergo β+ decay, thus transforming into an unusual isotope of Carbon with an atomic weight of 14 rather than the more common 12. Because cosmic rays are partially excluded from the Solar System by the outward sweep of magnetic Sunspot record (blue) with 14C (inverted). fields in the solar wind, increased solar activity results in a reduction of cosmic rays reaching the Earth's atmosphere and thus reduces 14C production. Thus the cosmic ray intensity and carbon-14 production vary inversely to the general level of solar activity.[48] Therefore, the atmospheric 14C concentration is lower during sunspot maxima and higher during sunspot minima. By measuring the captured 14C in wood and counting tree rings, production of radiocarbon relative to recent wood can be measured and dated. A reconstruction of the past 10,000 years shows that the 14C production was much higher during the mid-Holocene 7,000 years ago and decreased until 1,000 years ago. In addition to variations in solar activity, the long term trends in carbon-14 production are influenced by changes in the Earth's geomagnetic field and by changes in carbon cycling within the biosphere (particularly those associated with changes in the extent of vegetation since the last ice age).[49]

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179

Global warming
See Solar constant#Variation.

References
Footnotes
[1] Satellite observations of total solar irradiance (http:/ / www. acrim. com) [2] Willson, Richard C.; H.S. Hudson (1991). "The Sun's luminosity over a complete solar cycle" (http:/ / www. nature. com/ nature/ journal/ v351/ n6321/ abs/ 351042a0. html). Nature 351 (6321): 42–4. doi:10.1038/351042a0. . [3] "Solar Forcing of Climate" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 244. htm). Climate Change 2001: Working Group I: The Scientific Basis. . Retrieved 2005-03-10. [4] Weart, Spencer (2006). "The Discovery of Global Warming" (http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ index. html). In Weart, Spencer. American Institute of Physics. . Retrieved 2007-04-14. [5] http:/ / acrim. com/ TSI%20Monitoring. htm [6] Willson, R. C.; Mordvinov, A. V. (2003). "Secular total solar irradiance trend during solar cycles 21–23" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ journals/ gl/ gl0905/ 2008GL036307). Geophys. Res. Lett. 30 (5): 1199. Bibcode 2003GeoRL..30e...3W. doi:10.1029/2002GL016038. . [7] "Construction of a Composite Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) Time Series from 1978 to present" (http:/ / www. pmodwrc. ch/ pmod. php?topic=tsi/ composite/ SolarConstant). Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos (PMOD). . Retrieved 2005-10-05. [8] Committee on Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Studies, National Research Council of the National Academies. (2006). "Climate Forcings and Climate Models" (http:/ / books. nap. edu/ openbook. php?record_id=11676& page=102). In North, Gerald R.; Biondi, Franco; Bloomfield, Peter et al.. Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years (http:/ / www. nap. edu/ catalog. php?record_id=11676). National Academies Press. ISBN 0-309-10225-1. . Retrieved 19 April 2007. [9] Lean, J. (2000). "Evolution of the Sun's Spectral Irradiance Since the Maunder Minimum" (ftp:/ / ftp. ncdc. noaa. gov/ pub/ data/ paleo/ climate_forcing/ solar_variability/ lean2000_irradiance. txt). Geophysical Research Letters 27 (16): 2425–8. Bibcode 2000GeoRL..27.2425L. doi:10.1029/2000GL000043. . [10] Scafetta, N.; West, B. J. (2006). "Phenomenological solar signature in 400 years of reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperature record" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ journals/ gl/ gl0617/ 2006GL027142/ ). Geophys. Res. Lett. 33 (17): L17718. Bibcode 2006GeoRL..3317718S. doi:10.1029/2006GL027142. . [11] UCAR (September 13, 2006). "Changes In Solar Brightness Too Weak To Explain Global Warming" (http:/ / www. ucar. edu/ news/ releases/ 2006/ brightness. shtml). Press release. . Retrieved 18 April 2007. [12] "Great Moments in the History of Solar Physics 1" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20060301083022/ http:/ / web. hao. ucar. edu/ public/ education/ sp/ great_moments. html). Great Moments in the History of Solar Physics. Archived from the original (http:/ / web. hao. ucar. edu/ public/ education/ sp/ great_moments. html) on March 1, 2006. . Retrieved 2006-03-19. [13] Arctowski, Henryk (1940). "On Solar Faculae and Solar Constant Variations" (http:/ / www. pnas. org/ cgi/ reprint/ 26/ 6/ 406. pdf) (PDF). Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 26 (6): 406–11. doi:10.1073/pnas.26.6.406. PMC 1078196. PMID 16588370. . [14] Fritts, Harold C. (1976). Tree rings and climate. Boston: Academic Press. ISBN 0-12-268450-8. [15] "William Herschel (1738–1822)" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20070607215435/ http:/ / www. hao. ucar. edu/ Public/ education/ bios/ herschel. html). High Altitude Observatory. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. hao. ucar. edu/ Public/ education/ bios/ herschel. html) on June 7, 2007. . Retrieved 2008-02-27. [16] Camp, Charles D.; Tung, Ka-Kit; Quinif, Yves; Kaufman, Olivier; Van Ruymbeke, Michel; Vandiepenbeeck, Marc; Camelbeeck, Thierry (2006). "The Influence of the Solar Cycle and QBO on the Late Winter Stratospheric Polar Vortex" (http:/ / www. amath. washington. edu/ research/ articles/ Tung/ journals/ camp-tung-0721-revised. pdf) (PDF). EOS Trans. AGU 87 (52): Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract #A11B–0862. Bibcode 2006EOSTr..87..298V. doi:10.1029/2006EO300005. . Retrieved 28 April 2009. [17] TSI Composites (http:/ / www. acrim. com/ TSI Monitoring. htm) [18] http:/ / www. pmodwrc. ch/ pmod. php?topic=tsi/ composite/ SolarConstant [19] Richard C. Willson, Alexander V. Mordvinov (2003). "Secular total solar irradiance trend during solar cycles 21–23". Geophysical Research Letters 30 (5): 1199. Bibcode 2003GeoRL..30e...3W. doi:10.1029/2002GL016038. [20] Steven DeWitte, Dominiqu Crommelynck, Sabri Mekaoui, and Alexandre Joukoff (2004). "MEASUREMENT AND UNCERTAINTY OF THE LONG-TERM TOTAL SOLAR IRRADIANCE TREND". Solar Physics 224 (1-2): 209–216. doi:10.1007/s11207-005-5698-7. [21] Fröhlich, C. and J. Lean (2004). "Solar Radiative Output and its Variability: Evidence and Mechanisms". Astronomy and Astrophysical Reviews 12 (4): 273–320. doi:10.1007/s00159-004-0024-1. 10.1007/s00159-004-0024-1. [22] Eddy, J.A. (1990). "Samuel P. Langley (1834–1906)" (http:/ / www. hao. ucar. edu/ Public/ education/ bios/ langley. html). Journal for the History of Astronomy 21: 111–20. . [23] Foukal, P. V.; Mack, P. E.; Vernazza, J. E. (1977). "The effect of sunspots and faculae on the solar constant" (http:/ / ucp. uchicago. edu/ cgi-bin/ resolve?id=doi:10. 1086/ 155431). The Astrophysical Journal 215: 952. Bibcode 1977ApJ...215..952F. doi:10.1086/155431. .

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"A Millennium Scale Sunspot Number Reconstruction: Evidence For an Unusually Active Sun Since the 1940’s". Physical Review Letters 91 (21): 211101. arXiv:astro-ph/0310823. Bibcode 2003PhRvL..91u1101U. doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.91.211101. [27] Solanki, Sami K.; Usoskin, Ilya G.; Kromer, Bernd; Schüssler, Manfred; Beer, Jürg (2004). "Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years" (http:/ / cc. oulu. fi/ ~usoskin/ personal/ nature02995. pdf) (PDF). Nature 431 (7012): 1084–7. doi:10.1038/nature02995. PMID 15510145. . Retrieved 17 April 2007., "11,000 Year Sunspot Number Reconstruction" (http:/ / gcmd. nasa. gov/ KeywordSearch/ Metadata. do?Portal=GCMD& KeywordPath=[Parameters:Category='EARTH+ SCIENCE',Topic='SUN-EARTH+ INTERACTIONS',Term='SOLAR+ ACTIVITY',Variable='SUNSPOTS']& OrigMetadataNode=GCMD& EntryId=NOAA_NCDC_PALEO_2005-015& MetadataView=Brief& MetadataType=0& lbnode=gcmd3b). Global Change Master Directory. . Retrieved 2005-03-11. [28] Usoskin, Ilya G.; Solanki, Sami K.; Kovaltsov, Gennady A. (2007). "Grand minima and maxima of solar activity: new observational constraints" (http:/ / cc. oulu. fi/ ~usoskin/ personal/ aa7704-07. pdf) (PDF). Astron. Astrophys. 471 (1): 301–9. Bibcode 2007A&A...471..301U. doi:10.1051/0004-6361:20077704. . [29] Sonett, C. P.; Finney, S. A.; Berger, A. (April 24, 1990). "The Spectrum of Radiocarbon". Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lon. A 330 (1615): 413–26. [30] Braun, H; Christl, M; Rahmstorf, S; Ganopolski, A; Mangini, A; Kubatzki, C; Roth, K; Kromer, B (10 November 2005). "Possible solar origin of the 1,470-year glacial climate cycle demonstrated in a coupled model" (http:/ / www. awi. de/ fileadmin/ user_upload/ Research/ Research_Divisions/ Climate_Sciences/ Paleoclimate_Dynamics/ Modelling/ Methods/ PossibleSolar. pdf). Nature 438 (7065): 208–11. doi:10.1038/nature04121. PMID 16281042. . [31] "The Sun and Climate" (http:/ / pubs. usgs. gov/ fs/ fs-0095-00/ fs-0095-00. pdf) (PDF). U.S. Geological Survey. Fact Sheet 0095-00. . [32] Vasiliev, S. S.; Dergachev, V. A. (2002). "The ~ 2400-year cycle in atmospheric radiocarbon concentration: bispectrum of 14C data over the last 8000 years" (http:/ / www. ann-geophys. net/ 20/ 115/ 2002/ angeo-20-115-2002. pdf). ANGEO 20 (1): 115–20. . [33] Xapsos, M. A.; Burke, E. A. (July 2009). "Evidence of 6 000-Year Periodicity in Reconstructed Sunspot Numbers". Solar Physics 257 (2): 363–9. doi:10.1007/s11207-009-9380-3. [34] Scafetta, Nicola; West, Bruce J. (2005). "Estimated solar contribution to the global surface warming using the ACRIM TSI satellite composite" (http:/ / www. fel. duke. edu/ ~scafetta/ pdf/ 2005GL023849. pdf) (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters 32 (18): L18713. Bibcode 2005GeoRL..3218713S. doi:10.1029/2005GL023849. . [35] Perry, Charles A.; Hsu, Kenneth J. (2000). "Geophysical, archaeological, and historical evidence support a solar-output model for climate change" (http:/ / www. pnas. org/ cgi/ reprint/ 97/ 23/ 12433. pdf) (PDF). Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 97 (23): 12433–8. doi:10.1073/pnas.230423297. PMC 18780. PMID 11050181. . [36] Hathaway, David H.; Wilson, Robert M. (2004). "What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20060104223339/ http:/ / science. msfc. nasa. gov/ ssl/ pad/ solar/ papers/ hathadh/ HathawayWilson2004. pdf) (PDF). Solar physics 224 (1–2): 5–19. doi:10.1007/s11207-005-3996-8. Archived from the original (http:/ / science. msfc. nasa. gov/ ssl/ pad/ solar/ papers/ hathadh/ HathawayWilson2004. pdf) on January 4, 2006. . Retrieved 19 April 2007. [37] "Solar Variability: climatic change resulting from changes in the amount of solar energy reaching the upper atmosphere." (http:/ / www. geo. arizona. edu/ palynology/ geos462/ 20climsolar. html). Introduction to Quaternary Ecology. . Retrieved 2005-03-11. [38] Board on Global Change, Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources, National Research Council. (1994). Solar Influences on Global Change (http:/ / books. nap. edu/ openbook. php?record_id=4778& page=R1). Washington, D.C: National Academy Press. p. 36. ISBN 0-309-05148-7. . [39] Wang, Y.-M.; Lean, J. L.; Sheeley, N. R. (2005). "Modeling the Sun's magnetic field and irradiance since 1713" (http:/ / www. climatesci. org/ publications/ pdf/ Wang_2005. pdf). The Astrophysical journal 625 (1): 522–38. Bibcode 2005ApJ...625..522W. doi:10.1086/429689. . [40] Krivova, N. A.; Balmaceda, L.; Solanki, S. K. (2007). "Reconstruction of solar total irradiance since 1700 from the surface magnetic flux" (http:/ / www. aanda. org/ articles/ aa/ abs/ 2007/ 19/ aa6725-06/ aa6725-06. html). A&A 467 (1): 335–46. Bibcode 2007A&A...467..335K. doi:10.1051/0004-6361:20066725. . [41] Steinhilber, F.; Beer, J.; Fröhlich, C. (2009). "Total solar irradiance during the Holocene". Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 (19): L19704. Bibcode 2009GeoRL..3619704S. doi:10.1029/2009GL040142. [42] Lean, J. (14 April 1989). "Contribution of Ultraviolet Irradiance Variations to Changes in the Sun's Total Irradiance (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ abstract/ 244/ 4901/ 197) Science"]. Science 244 (4901): 197–200. doi:10.1126/science.244.4901.197. PMID 17835351. . "1 percent of the sun's energy is emitted at ultraviolet wavelengths between 200 and 300 nanometers, the decrease in this radiation from 1 July 1981 to 30 June 1985 accounted for 19 percent of the decrease in the total irradiance". (19% of the 1/1366 total decrease is 1.4% decrease in UV)

180

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[43] Damon, Paul E.; Paul Laut (28 2004). "Pattern of Strange Errors Plagues Solar Activity and Terrestrial Climate Data" (http:/ / stephenschneider. stanford. edu/ Publications/ PDF_Papers/ DamonLaut2004. pdf) (PDF). Eos 85 (39September): 370–4. Bibcode 2004EOSTr..85..370D. doi:10.1029/2004EO390005. . Retrieved October 5, 2005. [44] Tinsley, Brian A.; Yu, Fangqun (2004). "Atmospheric Ionization and Clouds as Links Between Solar Activity and Climate" (http:/ / www. utdallas. edu/ physics/ pdf/ Atmos_060302. pdf). In Pap, Judit M.; Fox, Peter. Solar Variability and its Effects on Climate. 141. American Geophysical Union. pp. 321–339. ISBN 0-87590-406-8. . Retrieved 19 April 2007. [45] Svensmark, Henrik (1998). "Influence of Cosmic Rays on Earth's Climate" (http:/ / www. cosis. net/ abstracts/ COSPAR02/ 00975/ COSPAR02-A-00975. pdf) (PDF). Physical Review Letters 81 (22): 5027–5030. Bibcode 1998PhRvL..81.5027S. doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.81.5027. . Retrieved 19 April 2007. [46] E. Pallé, C.J. Butler, K. O'Brien (2004). "The possible connection between ionization in the atmosphere by cosmic rays and low level clouds" (http:/ / www. arm. ac. uk/ preprints/ 433. pdf) (PDF). Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 66 (18): 1779. doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2004.07.041. . [47] Pallé, E. (2005). "Possible satellite perspective effects on the reported correlations between solar activity and clouds" (http:/ / bbso. njit. edu/ Research/ EarthShine/ literature/ Palle_2005_GRL. pdf) (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters 32 (3): L03802.1–4. Bibcode 2005GeoRL..3203802P. doi:10.1029/2004GL021167. . [48] "Astronomy: On the Sunspot Cycle" (http:/ / users. zoominternet. net/ ~matto/ M. C. A. S/ sunspot_cycle. htm). . Retrieved 2008-02-27. [49] Landscheidt, Theodor (21 September 2003). "Variations in CO2 Growth Rate Associated with Solar Activity" (http:/ / www. john-daly. com/ theodor/ co2new. htm). John-daly.com — website of John Lawrence Daly. . Retrieved 2007-04-19.

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• "Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis" (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/122.htm). Retrieved 2005-10-05. • Shaviv, Nir J.; Veizer, Ján (2003). "Celestial driver of Phanerozoic climate?" (http://www.gsajournals.org/ archive/1052-5173/13/7/pdf/i1052-5173-13-7-4.pdf) (PDF). GSA Today 13 (7): 4–10. doi:10.1130/1052-5173(2003)013<0004:CDOPC>2.0.CO;2. Retrieved 19 April 2007. • "http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/GG/FACULTY/POPP/Rahmstorf%20et%20al.%202004%20EOS.pdf" (http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/GG/FACULTY/POPP/Rahmstorf et al.2004 EOS.pdf) (PDF). Retrieved 2005-10-05.

General references
• Abbot, C. G. (1966). "Solar Variation, A Weather Element" (http://www.pnas.org/cgi/reprint/56/6/1627. pdf) (PDF). Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 56 (6): 1627–34. doi:10.1073/pnas.56.6.1627. PMC 220145. PMID 16591394. • Willson, Richard C.; H.S. Hudson (1991). "The Sun's luminosity over a complete solar cycle" (http://www. nature.com/nature/journal/v351/n6321/abs/351042a0.html). Nature 351 (6321): 42–4. doi:10.1038/351042a0. • "The Sun and Climate" (http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-0095-00/). U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 0095-00. Retrieved 2005-02-21. • "The Sun's role in Climate Changes" (http://web.archive.org/web/20041022012450/http://zeus.nascom. nasa.gov/~pbrekke/articles/halifax_brekke.pdf) (PDF). Proc. of The International Conference on Global Warming and The Next Ice Age, 19–24 August 2001, Halifax, Nova Scotia.. Archived from the original (http:// zeus.nascom.nasa.gov/~pbrekke/articles/halifax_brekke.pdf) on October 22, 2004. Retrieved 2005-02-21. • White, Warren B.; Lean, Judith; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Michael D. (1997). "Response of global upper ocean temperature to changing solar irradiance" (http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/1997/96JC03549.shtml). Journal of Geophysical Research 102 (C2): 3255–66. Bibcode 1997JGR...102.3255W. doi:10.1029/96JC03549. • Foukal, Peter; et al. (1977). "The effects of sunspots and faculae on the solar constant". Astrophysical Journal 215: 952. Bibcode 1977ApJ...215..952F. doi:10.1086/155431. • Dziembowski, W.A.; P.R. Goode, and J. Schou (2001). "Does the sun shrink with increasing magnetic activity?". Astrophysical Journal 553 (2): 897–904. Bibcode 2001ApJ...553..897D. doi:10.1086/320976. • Stetson, H.T. (1937). Sunspots and Their Effects. New York: McGraw Hill.

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External links
• Gerrit Lohmann, Norel Rimbu, Mihai Dima (2004). "Climate signature of solar irradiance variations: analysis of long-term instrumental, historical, and proxy data" (http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/abstract/ 109062443/ABSTRACT). International Journal of Climatology 24 (8): 1045–56. doi:10.1002/joc.1054. • Solar Climatic Effects (Recent Influence) — Summary. Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change. 19 March 2003. http://www.co2science.org/subject/s/summaries/solarrecin.htm • NOAA / NESDIS / NGDC (2002) Solar Variability Affecting Earth (http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/CDROM/ solar_variability.html) NOAA CD-ROM NGDC-05/01. This CD-ROM contains over 100 solar-terrestrial and related global data bases covering the period through April 1990. http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/CDROM/ solar_variability.html • Solanki, S.K.; Fligge, M. (2001). Long-term changes in solar irradiance (http://www.astro.phys.ethz.ch/ papers/fligge/solspa_2.pdf). ESA Publications Division. ESA SP-463. • Solanki, S.K.; Fligge, M. (2000). "Reconstruction of past solar irradiance" (http://www.astro.phys.ethz.ch/ papers/fligge/solfli_rev.pdf). Space Science Review 94 (1/2): 127–38. doi:10.1023/A:1026754803423. • Reid, George C. (1995). "The sun-climate question: Is there a real connection?" (http://www.agu.org/ revgeophys/reid00/reid00.html). Rev. Geophys. 33 (Suppl). Aeronomy Laboratory, NOAA/ERL, Boulder, Colorado. U.S. National Report to IUGG, 1991–1994 • Recent Total Solar Irradiance data (http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/data/tsi_data.htm) updated every Monday

Volcano

Cleveland Volcano in the Aleutian Islands of Alaska photographed from the International Space Station, May 2006

Cross-section through a stratovolcano (vertical scale is exaggerated): 1. Large magma chamber 2. Bedrock 3. Conduit (pipe) 4. Base 5. Sill 6. Dike 7. Layers of ash emitted by the volcano 8. Flank 9. Layers of lava emitted by the volcano 10. Throat 11. Parasitic cone 12. Lava flow 13. Vent 14. Crater 15. Ash cloud

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A volcano is an opening, or rupture, in a planet's surface or crust, which allows hot magma, volcanic ash and gases to escape from below the surface. Volcanoes are generally found where tectonic plates are diverging or converging. A mid-oceanic ridge, for example the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, has examples of volcanoes caused by divergent tectonic plates pulling apart; the Pacific Ring of Fire has examples of volcanoes caused by convergent tectonic plates coming together. By contrast, volcanoes are usually not created where two tectonic plates slide past one another. Volcanoes can also form where there is stretching and thinning of the Earth's crust in the interiors of plates, e.g., in the East African Rift, the Wells Gray-Clearwater volcanic field and the Rio Grande Rift in North America. This type of volcanism falls under the umbrella of "Plate hypothesis" volcanism.[1]

Pinatubo ash plume reaching a height of 19 km, 3 days before the climactic eruption of 15 June 1991

Intraplate volcanism has also been postulated to be caused by mantle plumes. These so-called "hotspots", for example Hawaii, are postulated to arise from upwelling diapirs from the core-mantle boundary, 3,000 km deep in the Earth.

Etymology
The word volcano is derived from the name of Vulcano, a volcanic island in the Aeolian Islands of Italy whose name in turn originates from Vulcan, the name of a god of fire in Roman mythology.[2] The study of volcanoes is called volcanology, sometimes spelled vulcanology.

Plate tectonics
Divergent plate boundaries
At the mid-oceanic ridges, two tectonic plates diverge from one another. New oceanic crust is being formed by hot molten rock slowly cooling and solidifying. The crust is very thin at mid-oceanic ridges due to the pull of the tectonic plates. The release of pressure due to the thinning of the crust leads to adiabatic expansion, and the partial melting of the mantle causing volcanism and Map showing the divergent plate boundaries (OSR – Oceanic Spreading Ridges) and recent sub aerial volcanoes. creating new oceanic crust. Most divergent plate boundaries are at the bottom of the oceans, therefore most volcanic activity is submarine, forming new seafloor. Black smokers or deep sea vents are an example of this kind of volcanic activity. Where the mid-oceanic ridge is above sea-level, volcanic islands are formed, for example, Iceland.

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Convergent plate boundaries
Subduction zones are places where two plates, usually an oceanic plate and a continental plate, collide. In this case, the oceanic plate subducts, or submerges under the continental plate forming a deep ocean trench just offshore. Water released from the subducting plate lowers the melting temperature of the overlying mantle wedge, creating magma. This magma tends to be very viscous due to its high silica content, so often does not reach the surface and cools at depth. When it does reach the surface, a volcano is formed. Typical examples for this kind of volcano are Mount Etna and the volcanoes in the Pacific Ring of Fire.

Mount Rinjani eruption in 1994, in Lombok, Indonesia

"Hotspots"
"Hotspots" is the name given to volcanic provinces postulated to be formed by mantle plumes. These are postulated to comprise columns of hot material that rise from the core-mantle boundary. They are suggested to be hot, causing large-volume melting, and to be fixed in space. Because the tectonic plates move across them, each volcano becomes dormant after a while and a new volcano is then formed as the plate shifts over the postulated plume. The Hawaiian Islands have been Lava enters the Pacific at the Big Island of Hawaii suggested to have been formed in such a manner, as well as the Snake River Plain, with the Yellowstone Caldera being the part of the North American plate currently above the hot spot. This theory is currently under criticism, however.[1]

Volcanic features
The most common perception of a volcano is of a conical mountain, spewing lava and poisonous gases from a crater at its summit. This describes just one of many types of volcano, and the features of volcanoes are much more complicated. The structure and behavior of volcanoes depends on a number of factors. Some volcanoes have rugged peaks formed by lava domes rather than a summit crater, whereas others present landscape features such as massive plateaus. Vents that issue volcanic material (lava, which is what magma is called once it has escaped to the surface, and ash) and gases (mainly steam and magmatic gases) can be located anywhere on the landform. Many of these vents give rise to smaller cones such as Puʻu ʻŌʻō on a flank of Hawaii's Kīlauea.

Conical Mount Fuji in Japan, at sunrise from Lake Kawaguchi (2005)

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Other types of volcano include cryovolcanoes (or ice volcanoes), particularly on some moons of Jupiter, Saturn and Neptune; and mud volcanoes, which are formations often not associated with known magmatic activity. Active mud volcanoes tend to involve temperatures much lower than those of igneous volcanoes, except when a mud volcano is actually a vent of an igneous volcano.

Fissure vents
Volcanic fissure vents are flat, linear cracks through which lava emerges.
Lakagigar fissure vent in Iceland, source of the major world climate alteration of 1783–84. Volcanic eruptions are experienced somewhere in [3] Iceland on an average of once every five years.

Shield volcanoes
Shield volcanoes, so named for their broad, shield-like profiles, are formed by the eruption of low-viscosity lava that can flow a great distance from a vent, but not generally explode catastrophically. Since low-viscosity magma is typically low in silica, shield volcanoes are more common in oceanic than continental settings. The Hawaiian volcanic chain is a series of shield cones, and they are common in Iceland, as well.

Lava domes
Lava domes are built by slow eruptions of highly viscous lavas. They are sometimes formed within the crater of a previous volcanic eruption (as in Mount Saint Helens), but can also form independently, as in the case of Lassen Peak. Like stratovolcanoes, they can produce violent, explosive eruptions, but their lavas generally do not flow far from the originating vent.

Skjaldbreiður, a shield volcano whose name means "broad shield"

Cryptodomes
Cryptodomes are formed when viscous lava forces its way up and causes a bulge. The 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens was an example. Lava was under great pressure and forced a bulge in the mountain, which was unstable and slid down the north side.
January 2009 image of the rhyolitic lava dome of Chaitén Volcano, southern Chile during its 2008–2009 eruption

Volcanic cones (cinder cones)
Volcanic cones or cinder cones are the result from eruptions that erupt mostly small pieces of scoria and pyroclastics (both resemble cinders, hence the name of this volcano type) that build up around the vent. These can be relatively short-lived eruptions that produce a cone-shaped hill perhaps 30 to 400 meters high. Most cinder cones erupt only once. Cinder cones may form as flank vents on larger volcanoes, or occur on their own. Parícutin in Mexico and Sunset Crater in Arizona are examples of cinder cones. In New Mexico, Caja del Rio is a volcanic field of over 60 cinder cones.

Holocene cinder cone volcano on State Highway 18 near Veyo, Utah

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Stratovolcanoes (composite volcanoes)
Stratovolcanoes or composite volcanoes are tall conical mountains composed of lava flows and other ejecta in alternate layers, the strata that give rise to the name. Stratovolcanoes are also known as composite volcanoes, created from several structures during different kinds of eruptions. Strato/composite volcanoes are made of cinders, ash and lava. Cinders and ash pile on top of each other, lava flows on top of the ash, where it cools and hardens, and then the process begins again. Classic examples include Mt. Fuji in Japan, Mayon Volcano in the Philippines, and Mount Vesuvius and Stromboli in Italy.

Mayon, near-perfect stratovolcano in the Philippines

In recorded history, explosive eruptions by stratovolcanoes have posed the greatest hazard to civilizations, as ash is produced by an explosive eruption. No supervolcano erupted in recorded history. Shield volcanoes have not an enormous pressure build up from the lava flow. Fissure vents and monogenetic volcanic fields (volcanic cones) have not powerful explosive eruptions, as they are many times under extension. Stratovolcanoes (30–35°) are steeper than shield volcanoes (generally 5–10°), their loose tephra are material for dangerous lahars.[4]

Supervolcanoes
A supervolcano is a large volcano that usually has a large caldera and can potentially produce devastation on an enormous, sometimes continental, scale. Such eruptions would be able to cause severe cooling of global temperatures for many years afterwards because of the huge volumes of sulfur and ash erupted. They are the most dangerous type of volcano. Examples include Yellowstone Caldera in Yellowstone National Park and Valles Caldera in New Mexico (both western United States), Lake Taupo in New Zealand, Lake Toba in Sumatra, Indonesia and Ngorogoro Crater in Tanzania, Krakatoa near Java and Sumatra, Indonesia. Supervolcanoes are hard to identify centuries later, given the enormous areas they cover. Large igneous provinces are also considered supervolcanoes because of the vast amount of basalt lava erupted, but are non-explosive.

The Lake Toba volcano created a caldera 100 km long

Submarine volcanoes
Submarine volcanoes are common features on the ocean floor. Some are active and, in shallow water, disclose their presence by blasting steam and rocky debris high above the surface of the sea. Many others lie at such great depths that the tremendous weight of the water above them prevents the explosive release of steam and gases, although they can be detected by hydrophones and discoloration of water because of volcanic gases. Pumice rafts may also appear. Even large submarine eruptions may not disturb the ocean surface. Because of the rapid cooling effect of water as compared to air, and increased buoyancy, submarine volcanoes often form rather steep pillars over their volcanic vents as compared to above-surface volcanoes. They may become so large that they break the ocean surface as new islands. Pillow lava is a common eruptive product of submarine volcanoes. Hydrothermal vents are common near these volcanoes, and some support peculiar ecosystems based on dissolved minerals.

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Subglacial volcanoes
Subglacial volcanoes develop underneath icecaps. They are made up of flat lava which flows at the top of extensive pillow lavas and palagonite. When the icecap melts, the lavas on the top collapse, leaving a flat-topped mountain. These volcanoes are also called table mountains, tuyas or (uncommonly) mobergs. Very good examples of this type of volcano can be seen in Iceland, however, there are also tuyas in British Columbia. The origin of the term comes from Tuya Butte, which is one of the several tuyas in the area of the Tuya River and Tuya Range in northern British Columbia. Tuya Butte was the first such landform analyzed and so its name has entered the geological literature for this kind of volcanic formation. The Tuya Mountains Provincial Park was recently established to protect this unusual landscape, which lies north of Tuya Lake and south of the Jennings River near the boundary with the Yukon Territory.

Herðubreið, one of the tuyas in Iceland

Mud volcanoes
Mud volcanoes or mud domes are formations created by geo-excreted liquids and gases, although there are several processes which may cause such activity. The largest structures are 10 kilometers in diameter and reach 700 meters high.

Mud volcano on Taman Peninsula, Russia

Erupted material
Lava composition
Another way of classifying volcanoes is by the composition of material erupted (lava), since this affects the shape of the volcano. Lava can be broadly classified into 4 different compositions (Cas & Wright, 1987): • If the erupted magma contains a high percentage (>63%) of silica, the lava is called felsic. • Felsic lavas (dacites or rhyolites) tend to be highly viscous (not very fluid) and are erupted as domes or short, stubby flows. Viscous lavas tend to form stratovolcanoes or lava domes. Lassen Peak in California is an example of a volcano formed from felsic lava and is actually a large lava dome.
Pāhoehoe Lava flow on Hawaii. The picture shows overflows of a main lava channel.

• Because siliceous magmas are so viscous, they tend to trap volatiles (gases) that are present, which cause the magma to erupt catastrophically, eventually forming stratovolcanoes. Pyroclastic flows (ignimbrites) are highly hazardous products of such volcanoes, since they are composed of molten volcanic ash too heavy to go up into the atmosphere, so they hug the volcano's slopes and travel far from their vents during large eruptions.

Volcano Temperatures as high as 1,200 °C are known to occur in pyroclastic flows, which will incinerate everything flammable in their path and thick layers of hot pyroclastic flow deposits can be laid down, often up to many meters thick. Alaska's Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes, formed by the eruption of Novarupta near Katmai in 1912, is an example of a thick pyroclastic flow or ignimbrite deposit. Volcanic ash that is light enough to be erupted high into the Earth's atmosphere may travel many kilometres before it falls back to ground as a tuff. • If the erupted magma contains 52–63% silica, the lava is of intermediate composition. • These "andesitic" volcanoes generally only occur above subduction zones (e.g. Mount Merapi in Indonesia). • Andesitic lava is typically formed at convergent boundary margins of tectonic plates, by several processes: • Hydration melting of peridotite and fractional crystallization • Melting of subducted slab containing sediments • Magma mixing between felsic rhyolitic and mafic basaltic magmas in an intermediate reservoir prior to emplacement or lava flow. • If the erupted magma contains <52% and >45% silica, the lava is called mafic (because it contains higher percentages of magnesium (Mg) and iron (Fe)) or basaltic. These lavas are usually much less viscous than rhyolitic lavas, depending on their eruption temperature; they also tend to be hotter than felsic lavas. Mafic lavas occur in a wide range of settings: • At mid-ocean ridges, where two oceanic plates are pulling apart, basaltic lava erupts as pillows to fill the gap; • Shield volcanoes (e.g. the Hawaiian Islands, including Mauna Loa and Kilauea), on both oceanic and continental crust; • As continental flood basalts. • Some erupted magmas contain <=45% silica and produce ultramafic lava. Ultramafic flows, also known as komatiites, are very rare; indeed, very few have been erupted at the Earth's surface since the Proterozoic, when the planet's heat flow was higher. They are (or were) the hottest lavas, and probably more fluid than common mafic lavas.

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The Stromboli volcano off the coast of Sicily has erupted continuously for thousands of years, giving rise to the term strombolian eruption.

Mafic basalt lava flows created the Deccan Traps near Matheran, east of Mumbai, one of the largest volcanic features on Earth.

Pāhoehoe lava from Kīlauea, Hawaii

Lava texture
Two types of lava are named according to the surface texture: ʻAʻa (pronounced Hawaiian pronunciation: [ˈʔaʔa]) and pāhoehoe (Hawaiian pronunciation: [paːˈho.eˈho.e]), both Hawaiian words. ʻAʻa is characterized by a rough, clinkery surface and is the typical texture of viscous lava flows. However, even basaltic or mafic flows can be erupted as ʻaʻa flows, particularly if the eruption rate is high and the slope is steep. Pāhoehoe is characterized by its smooth and often ropey or wrinkly surface and is generally formed from more fluid lava flows. Usually, only mafic flows will erupt as pāhoehoe, since they often erupt at higher temperatures or have

Volcano the proper chemical make-up to allow them to flow with greater fluidity.

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Volcanic activity
Popular classification of volcanoes
Active A popular way of classifying magmatic volcanoes is by their frequency of eruption, with those that erupt regularly called active, those that have erupted in historical times but are now quiet called dormant, and those that have not erupted in historical times called extinct. However, these popular classifications—extinct in particular—are practically meaningless to scientists. They use classifications which refer to a particular volcano's formative and eruptive processes and resulting shapes, which was explained above. There is no real consensus among volcanologists on how to define an "active" volcano. The lifespan of a volcano can vary from months to several million years, making such a distinction sometimes meaningless when compared to the lifespans of humans or even civilizations. For example, many of Earth's volcanoes have erupted dozens of times in the past few thousand years but are not currently showing signs of eruption. Given the long lifespan of such volcanoes, they are very active. By human lifespans, however, they are not. Scientists usually consider a volcano to be erupting or likely to erupt if it is currently erupting, or showing signs of unrest such as unusual earthquake activity or significant new gas emissions. Most scientists consider a volcano active if it has erupted in holocene times. Historic times is another timeframe for active.[5] But it is important to note that the span of recorded history differs from region to region. In China and the Mediterranean, recorded history reaches back more than 3,000 years but in the Pacific Northwest of the United States and Canada, it reaches back less than 300 years, and in Hawaii and New Zealand, only around 200 years.[6] The Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program's definition of active is having erupted within the last 10,000 years (the 'holocene' period). Presently there are about 500 active volcanoes in the world – the majority following along the Pacific 'Ring of Fire' – and around 50 of these erupt each year.[7] The United States is home to 50 active volcanoes.[8] There are more than 1,500 potentially active volcanoes.[9] An estimated 500 million people live near active volcanoes.[10]
Fresco of Bacchus and Agathodaemon with Mount Vesuvius, as seen in Pompeii's House of the Centenary.

Active volcano Mount St. Helens shortly after the eruption of 18 May 1980

Damavand, the highest volcano in Asia, is a potentially active volcano with fumaroles and solfatara near its summit.

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Extinct Extinct volcanoes are those that scientists consider unlikely to erupt again, because the volcano no longer has a lava supply. Examples of extinct volcanoes are many volcanoes on the Hawaiian – Emperor seamount chain in the Pacific Ocean, Hohentwiel, Shiprock and the Zuidwal volcano in the Netherlands. Edinburgh Castle in Scotland is famously located atop an extinct volcano. Otherwise, whether a volcano is truly extinct is often difficult to determine. Since Fourpeaked volcano, Alaska, in September 2007, "supervolcano" calderas can have eruptive lifespans sometimes after being thought extinct for over 10,000 years. measured in millions of years, a caldera that has not produced an eruption in tens of thousands of years is likely to be considered dormant instead of extinct. Dormant It is difficult to distinguish an extinct volcano from a dormant one. Volcanoes are often considered to be extinct if there are no written records of its activity. Nevertheless, volcanoes may remain dormant for a long period of time. For example, Yellowstone has a repose/recharge period of around 700 ka, and Toba of around 380 ka.[11] Vesuvius was described by Roman writers as having been covered with gardens and vineyards before its famous eruption of AD 79, which destroyed the towns of Herculaneum and Pompeii. Before its catastrophic eruption of 1991, Pinatubo was an inconspicuous volcano, unknown to most people in the surrounding areas. Two other examples are the long-dormant Soufrière Hills volcano on the island of Montserrat, thought to be extinct before activity resumed in 1995 and Fourpeaked Mountain in Alaska, which, before its September 2006 eruption, had not erupted since before 8000 BC and had long been thought to be extinct.

Notable volcanoes
The 16 current Decade Volcanoes are:

Koryaksky volcano towering over Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky on Kamchatka Peninsula, Far Eastern Russia.

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Mount Teide on the island of Tenerife (Spain).

• • • • • • • •

Avachinsky-Koryaksky, Kamchatka, Russia Nevado de Colima, Jalisco and Colima, Mexico Mount Etna, Sicily, Italy Galeras, Nariño, Colombia Mauna Loa, Hawaii, USA Mount Merapi, Central Java, Indonesia Mount Rainier, Washington, USA

• • • • • • •

Sakurajima, Kagoshima Prefecture, Japan Santa Maria/Santiaguito, Guatemala Santorini, Cyclades, Greece Taal Volcano, Luzon, Philippines Teide, Canary Islands, Spain Ulawun, New Britain, Papua New Guinea Mount Unzen, Nagasaki Prefecture, Japan Vesuvius, Naples, Italy

Mount Nyiragongo, Democratic Republic of the Congo •

Effects of volcanoes
There are many different types of volcanic eruptions and associated activity: phreatic eruptions (steam-generated eruptions), explosive eruption of high-silica lava (e.g., rhyolite), effusive eruption of low-silica lava (e.g., basalt), pyroclastic flows, lahars (debris flow) and carbon dioxide emission. All of these activities can pose a hazard to humans. Earthquakes, hot springs, fumaroles, mud pots and geysers often accompany volcanic activity. The concentrations of different volcanic gases can vary considerably from one volcano to the next. Water vapor is typically the most abundant volcanic gas, followed by carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide. Other principal volcanic gases include hydrogen sulfide, hydrogen chloride, and hydrogen fluoride. A large number of minor and trace gases are also found in volcanic emissions, for example hydrogen, carbon monoxide, halocarbons, organic compounds, and volatile metal chlorides.

Volcanic "injection"

Large, explosive volcanic eruptions inject water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), hydrogen chloride (HCl), hydrogen fluoride (HF) and ash (pulverized rock and pumice) into the stratosphere to heights of 16–32 kilometres (10–20 mi) above the Earth's surface. The most significant impacts from these injections Solar radiation reduction from volcanic eruptions come from the conversion of sulfur dioxide to sulfuric acid (H2SO4), which condenses rapidly in the stratosphere to form fine sulfate aerosols. The aerosols increase the Earth's albedo—its reflection of

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radiation from the Sun back into space – and thus cool the Earth's lower atmosphere or troposphere; however, they also absorb heat radiated up from the Earth, thereby warming the stratosphere. Several eruptions during the past century have caused a decline in the average temperature at the Earth's surface of up to half a degree (Fahrenheit scale) for periods of one to three years — sulfur dioxide from the eruption of Huaynaputina probably caused the Russian famine of 1601 - 1603.[12] One proposed volcanic winter happened c. 70,000 years ago following the supereruption of Lake Toba on Sumatra island in Indonesia.[13] According to the Toba catastrophe theory to which some anthropologists and archeologists subscribe, it had global consequences,[14] killing most humans then alive and creating a population bottleneck that affected the genetic inheritance of all humans today.[15] The 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora created global climate anomalies that became known as the "Year Without a Summer" because of the effect on North American and European weather.[16] Agricultural crops failed and livestock died in much of the Northern Hemisphere, resulting in one of the worst famines of the 19th century.[17] The freezing winter of 1740–41, which led to widespread famine in northern Europe, may also owe its origins to a volcanic eruption.[18]

Sulfur dioxide emissions by volcanoes.

Average concentration of sulfur dioxide over the Sierra Negra Volcano (Galapagos Islands) from October 23 – November 1, 2005

It has been suggested that volcanic activity caused or contributed to the End-Ordovician, Permian-Triassic, Late Devonian mass extinctions, and possibly others. The massive eruptive event which formed the Siberian Traps, one of the largest known volcanic events of the last 500 million years of Earth's geological history, continued for a million years and is considered to be the likely cause of the "Great Dying" about 250 million years ago,[19] which is estimated to have killed 90% of species existing at the time.[20] The sulfate aerosols also promote complex chemical reactions on their surfaces that alter chlorine and nitrogen chemical species in the stratosphere. This effect, together with increased stratospheric chlorine levels from chlorofluorocarbon pollution, generates chlorine monoxide (ClO), which destroys ozone (O3). As the aerosols grow and coagulate, they settle down into the upper troposphere where they serve as nuclei for cirrus clouds and further modify the Earth's radiation balance. Most of the hydrogen chloride (HCl) and hydrogen fluoride (HF) are dissolved in water droplets in the eruption cloud and quickly fall to the ground as acid rain. The injected ash also falls rapidly from the stratosphere; most of it is removed within several days to a few weeks. Finally, explosive volcanic eruptions release the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide and thus provide a deep source of carbon for biogeochemical cycles.

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193 Gas emissions from volcanoes are a natural contributor to acid rain. Volcanic activity releases about 130 to 230 teragrams (145 million to 255 million short tons) of carbon dioxide each year.[21] Volcanic eruptions may inject aerosols into the Earth's atmosphere. Large injections may cause visual effects such as unusually colorful sunsets and affect global climate mainly by cooling it. Volcanic eruptions also provide the benefit of adding nutrients to soil through the weathering process of volcanic rocks. These fertile soils assist the growth of plants and various crops. Volcanic eruptions can also create new islands, as the magma cools and solidifies upon contact with the water.

Rainbow and volcanic ash with sulfur dioxide emissions from Halema`uma`u vent.

Ash thrown into the air by eruptions can present a hazard to aircraft, especially jet aircraft where the particles can be melted by the high operating temperature. Dangerous encounters in 1982 after the eruption of Galunggung in Indonesia, and 1989 after the eruption of Mount Redoubt in Alaska raised awareness of this phenomenon. Nine Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers were established by the International Civil Aviation Organization to monitor ash clouds and advise pilots accordingly. The 2010 eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull caused major disruptions to air travel in Europe.

Volcanoes on other planetary bodies
The Earth's Moon has no large volcanoes and no current volcanic activity, although recent evidence suggests it may still possess a partially molten core.[22] However, the Moon does have many volcanic features such as maria (the darker patches seen on the moon), rilles and domes. The planet Venus has a surface that is 90% basalt, indicating that volcanism played a major role in shaping its surface. The planet may have had a major global resurfacing event about 500 million years ago,[23] from what scientists can tell from the density of impact craters on the surface. Lava flows are widespread and forms of volcanism not present on Earth occur as well. Changes in the planet's atmosphere and observations of lightning have been attributed to ongoing volcanic eruptions, although there is no confirmation of whether or not Venus is still volcanically active. However, radar sounding by the Magellan probe revealed evidence for comparatively recent volcanic activity at Venus's highest volcano Maat Mons, in the form of ash flows near the summit and on the northern flank. There are several extinct volcanoes on Mars, four of which are vast shield volcanoes far bigger than any on Earth. They include Arsia Mons, Ascraeus Mons, Hecates Tholus, Olympus Mons, and Pavonis Mons. These volcanoes have been extinct for many millions of years,[24] but the European Mars Express spacecraft has found evidence that volcanic activity may have occurred on Mars in the recent past as well.[24]

Olympus Mons (Latin, "Mount Olympus") is the tallest known mountain in our solar system, located on the planet Mars.

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194 Jupiter's moon Io is the most volcanically active object in the solar system because of tidal interaction with Jupiter. It is covered with volcanoes that erupt sulfur, sulfur dioxide and silicate rock, and as a result, Io is constantly being resurfaced. Its lavas are the hottest known anywhere in the solar system, with temperatures exceeding 1,800 K (1,500 °C). In February 2001, the largest recorded volcanic eruptions in the solar system occurred on Io.[25] Europa, the smallest of Jupiter's Galilean moons, also appears to have an active volcanic system, except that its volcanic activity is entirely in the form of water, which freezes into ice on the frigid surface. This process is known as cryovolcanism, and is apparently most common on the moons of the outer planets of the solar system.

In 1989 the Voyager 2 spacecraft observed cryovolcanoes (ice volcanoes) on Triton, a moon of Neptune, and in 2005 the Cassini-Huygens probe photographed fountains of frozen particles erupting from Enceladus, a moon of Saturn.[26] The ejecta may be composed of water, liquid nitrogen, dust, or methane compounds. Cassini-Huygens also found evidence of a methane-spewing cryovolcano on the Saturnian moon Titan, which is believed to be a significant source of the methane found in its atmosphere.[27] It is theorized that cryovolcanism may also be present on the Kuiper Belt Object Quaoar. A 2010 study of the exoplanet COROT-7b, which was detected by transit in 2009, studied that tidal heating from the host star very close to the planet and neighboring planets could generate intense volcanic activity similar to Io.[28]

The Tvashtar volcano erupts a plume 330 km (205 mi) above the surface of Jupiter's moon Io.

Traditional beliefs about volcanoes
Many ancient accounts ascribe volcanic eruptions to supernatural causes, such as the actions of gods or demigods. To the ancient Greeks, volcanoes' capricious power could only be explained as acts of the gods, while 16th/17th-century German astronomer Johannes Kepler believed they were ducts for the Earth's tears.[29] One early idea counter to this was proposed by Jesuit Athanasius Kircher (1602–1680), who witnessed eruptions of Mount Etna and Stromboli, then visited the crater of Vesuvius and published his view of an Earth with a central fire connected to numerous others caused by the burning of sulfur, bitumen and coal. Various explanations were proposed for volcano behavior before the modern understanding of the Earth's mantle structure as a semisolid material was developed. For decades after awareness that compression and radioactive materials may be heat sources, their contributions were specifically discounted. Volcanic action was often attributed to chemical reactions and a thin layer of molten rock near the surface.

Panoramas

Mount Bromo, East Java, Indonesia.

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Crater of Mount Tangkuban Perahu, West Java, Indonesia.

Irazú Volcano, Costa Rica.

Black Rock Volcano an extinct cinder cone near Fillmore, Utah.

Taal Volcano, Philippines.

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Crater of Sierra Negra volcano, Isabela island, Galapagos, Ecuador.

Vulcano island with the north coast of Sicily in the background.

Remote Binubulauan in Kalinga province, central northern Luzon, Philippines, April 2009

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References
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Robert Wayne Decker, Barbara Decker (1991). p.7. ISBN 0521312906 [7] " Volcanoes (http:/ / www. esa. int/ SPECIALS/ Space_for_our_climate/ SEM3XU2VQUD_0. html)". European Space Agency. [8] " Volcano Environments (http:/ / pubs. usgs. gov/ gip/ volc/ environments. html)". U.S. Geological Survey. [9] " Sensing Remote Volcanoes (http:/ / earthobservatory. nasa. gov/ Features/ monvoc/ )". NASA Earth Observatory. [10] " Volcanoes (http:/ / www. alertnet. org/ db/ crisisprofiles/ VOLCANO. htm)". Reuters. December 12, 2009. [11] Chesner, C.A.; Westgate, J.A.; Rose, W.I.; Drake, R.; Deino, A. (March 1991). "Eruptive History of Earth's Largest Quaternary caldera (Toba, Indonesia) Clarified" (http:/ / www. geo. mtu. edu/ ~raman/ papers/ ChesnerGeology. pdf). Geology 19: 200–203. doi:10.1130/0091-7613(1991)019<0200:EHOESL>2.3.CO;2. . Retrieved 2010-01-20. [12] University of California – Davis (2008, April 25). "Volcanic Eruption Of 1600 Caused Global Disruption" (http:/ / www. sciencedaily. com/ releases/ 2008/ 04/ 080423135236. htm). ScienceDaily. . [13] " Supervolcano Eruption – In Sumatra – Deforested India 73,000 Years Ago (http:/ / www. sciencedaily. com/ releases/ 2009/ 11/ 091123142739. htm)". ScienceDaily. November 24, 2009. [14] " The new batch – 150,000 years ago (http:/ / www. bbc. co. uk/ sn/ prehistoric_life/ human/ human_evolution/ new_batch1. shtml)". BBC – Science & Nature – The evolution of man. [15] "When humans faced extinction" (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 2/ hi/ science/ nature/ 2975862. stm). BBC. 2003-06-09. . Retrieved 2007-01-05. [16] " Volcanoes in human history: the far-reaching effects of major eruptions (http:/ / books. google. com/ books?id=ipNcKc0Mv5IC& pg=PA155& dq& hl=en#v=onepage& q=& f=false)". Jelle Zeilinga de Boer, Donald Theodore Sanders (2002). Princeton University Press. p.155. ISBN 0691050813 [17] Oppenheimer, Clive (2003). "Climatic, environmental and human consequences of the largest known historic eruption: Tambora volcano (Indonesia) 1815". Progress in Physical Geography 27 (2): 230–259. doi:10.1191/0309133303pp379ra. [18] " Ó Gráda, C.: Famine: A Short History (http:/ / press. princeton. edu/ chapters/ s8857. html)". Princeton University Press. [19] " Yellowstone's Super Sister (http:/ / dsc. discovery. com/ convergence/ supervolcano/ others/ others_07. html)". Discovery Channel. [20] Benton M J (2005). When Life Nearly Died: The Greatest Mass Extinction of All Time. Thames & Hudson. ISBN 978-0500285732. [21] "Volcanic Gases and Their Effects" (http:/ / volcanoes. usgs. gov/ Hazards/ What/ VolGas/ volgas. html). U.S. Geological Survey. . Retrieved 2007-06-16. [22] M. A. Wieczorek, B. L. Jolliff, A. Khan, M. E. Pritchard, B. P. Weiss, J. G. Williams, L. L. Hood, K. Righter, C. R. Neal, C. K. Shearer, I. S. McCallum, S. Tompkins, B. R. Hawke, C. Peterson, J, J. Gillis, B. Bussey (2006). "The Constitution and Structure of the Lunar Interior". Reviews in Mineralogy and Geochemistry 60 (1): 221–364. doi:10.2138/rmg.2006.60.3. [23] D.L. Bindschadler (1995). "Magellan: A new view of Venus' geology and geophysics" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ journals/ rg/ rg9504S/ 95RG00281/ index. html). American Geophysical Union. . Retrieved 2006-09-04. [24] "Glacial, volcanic and fluvial activity on Mars: latest images" (http:/ / www. esa. int/ esaMI/ Mars_Express/ SEMLF6D3M5E_0. html). European Space Agency. 2005-02-25. . Retrieved 2006-08-17. [25] Exceptionally Bright Eruption on lo Rivals Largest in Solar System, Nov. 13, 2002 (http:/ / www2. keck. hawaii. edu/ news/ archive/ eruption/ ) [26] "Cassini Finds an Atmosphere on Saturn's Moon Enceladus'" (http:/ / www. pparc. ac. uk/ Nw/ enceladus. asp). Pparc.ac.uk. . Retrieved 2010-10-24. [27] "Hydrocarbon volcano discovered on Titan" (http:/ / www. newscientist. com/ article. ns?id=dn7489). Newscientist.com. June 8, 2005. . Retrieved 2010-10-24. [28] Jaggard, Victoria (2010-02-05). ""Super Earth" May Really Be New Planet Type: Super-Io" (http:/ / news. nationalgeographic. com/ news/ 2010/ 02/ 100205-new-type-planet-corot-7b-io/ ). National Geographic web site daily news (http:/ / news. nationalgeographic. com/ news/ ). National Geographic Society. . Retrieved 2010-03-11. [29] Micheal Williams (11-2007). "Hearts of fire". Morning Calm (Korean Air Lines Co., Ltd.) (11-2007): 6.

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Further reading
• Cas, R.A.F. and J.V. Wright, 1987. Volcanic Successions. Unwin Hyman Inc. 528p. ISBN 0-04-552022-4 • Macdonald, Gordon and Agatin T. Abbott. (1970). Volcanoes in the Sea. University of Hawaii Press, Honolulu. 441 p. • Marti, Joan and Ernst, Gerald. (2005). Volcanoes and the Environment. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0-521-59254-2. • Ollier, Cliff. (1988). Volcanoes. Basil Blackwell, Oxford, UK, ISBN 0-631-15664-X (hardback), ISBN 0-631-15977-0 (paperback). • Sigurðsson, Haraldur, ed. (1999) Encyclopedia of Volcanoes. Academic Press. ISBN 0-12-643140-X. This is a reference aimed at geologists, but many articles are accessible to non-professionals.

External links
• Volcanoes (http://www.dmoz.org/Science/Earth_Sciences/Geology/Volcanoes/) at the Open Directory Project • Volcano Eruptions, Ancient & Modern (http://www.life.com/image/first/in-gallery/22994/ volcano-eruptions-ancient--modern) slideshow by Life magazine • Volcano (http://www.fema.gov/hazard/volcano/index.shtm), U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency FEMA • Volcano World (http://volcano.oregonstate.edu/)

Global climate model
A General Circulation Model (GCM) is a mathematical model of the general circulation of a planetary atmosphere or ocean and based on the Navier–Stokes equations on a rotating sphere with thermodynamic terms for various energy sources (radiation, latent heat). These equations are the basis for complex computer programs commonly used for simulating the atmosphere or ocean of the Earth. Atmospheric and Oceanic GCMs (AGCM and OGCM) are key components of Global Climate Models along with sea ice and land-surface components. GCMs and global climate models are widely applied for weather forecasting, understanding the climate, and projecting climate change. Versions designed for decade to century time

Climate models are systems of differential equations based on the basic laws of physics, fluid motion, and chemistry. To “run” a model, scientists divide the planet into a 3-dimensional grid, apply the basic equations, and evaluate the results. Atmospheric models calculate winds, heat transfer, radiation, relative humidity, and surface hydrology within each grid and evaluate interactions with neighboring points. The winds, heat transfer and other quantities are only used to compute a final result so they do not need to correspond to real world conditions, and in some numerical schemes fictitious quantities are introduced.

Global climate model scale climate applications were originally created by Syukuro Manabe and Kirk Bryan at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, New Jersey.[1] These computationally intensive numerical models are based on the integration of a variety of fluid dynamical, chemical, and sometimes biological equations.

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History
In 1956, Norman Phillips developed a mathematical model which could realistically depict monthly and seasonal patterns in the troposphere, which became the first successful climate model.[2] [3] Following Phillips's work, several groups began working to create general circulation models.[4] The first general circulation climate model that combined both oceanic and atmospheric processes was developed in the late 1960s at the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.[5] By the early 1980s, the United States' National Center for Atmospheric Research had developed the Community Atmosphere Model; this model has been continuously refined into the 2000s.[6] In 1986, efforts began to initialize and model soil and vegetation types, which led to more realistic forecasts.[7] Coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models such as the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research's HadCM3 model are currently being used as inputs for climate change studies.[4] The importance of gravity waves was neglected within these models until the mid 1980s. Now, gravity waves are required within global climate models in order to properly simulate regional and global scale circulations, though their broad spectrum makes their incorporation complicated.[8]

Atmospheric vs Ocean models
There are both atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) and oceanic GCMs (OGCMs). An AGCM and an OGCM can be coupled together to form an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model (CGCM or AOGCM). With the addition of other components (such as a sea ice model or a model for evapotranspiration over land), the AOGCM becomes the basis for a full climate model. Within this structure, different variations can exist, and their varying response to climate change may be studied (e.g., Sun and Hansen, 2003).

Modeling trends
A recent trend in GCMs is to apply them as components of Earth System Models, e.g. by coupling to ice sheet models for the dynamics of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and one or more chemical transport models (CTMs) for species important to climate. Thus a carbon CTM may allow a GCM to better predict changes in carbon dioxide concentrations resulting from changes in anthropogenic emissions. In addition, this approach allows accounting for inter-system feedback: e.g. chemistry-climate models allow the possible effects of climate change on the recovery of the ozone hole to be studied.[9] Climate prediction uncertainties depend on uncertainties in chemical, physical, and social models (see IPCC scenarios below).[10] Progress has been made in incorporating more realistic chemistry and physics in the models, but significant uncertainties and unknowns remain, especially regarding the future course of human population, industry, and technology. Note that many simpler levels of climate model exist; some are of only heuristic interest, while others continue to be scientifically relevant.

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Model structure
Three-dimensional (more properly four-dimensional) GCMs discretise the equations for fluid motion and integrate these forward in time. They also contain parametrisations for processes - such as convection - that occur on scales too small to be resolved directly. More sophisticated models may include representations of the carbon and other cycles. A simple general circulation model (SGCM), a minimal GCM, consists of a dynamical core that relates material properties such as temperature to dynamical properties such as pressure and velocity. Examples are programs that solve the primitive equations, given energy input into the model, and energy dissipation in the form of scale-dependent friction, so that atmospheric waves with the highest wavenumbers are the ones most strongly attenuated. Such models may be used to study atmospheric processes within a simplified framework but are not suitable for future climate projections. Atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) model the atmosphere (and typically contain a land-surface model as well) and impose sea surface temperatures (SSTs). A large amount of information including model documentation is available from AMIP.[11] They may include atmospheric chemistry. • AGCMs consist of a dynamical core which integrates the equations of fluid motion, typically for: • surface pressure • horizontal components of velocity in layers • temperature and water vapor in layers • There is generally a radiation code, split into solar/short wave and terrestrial/infra-red/long wave • Parametrizations are used to include the effects of various processes. All modern AGCMs include parameterizations for: • convection • land surface processes, albedo and hydrology • cloud cover A GCM contains a number of prognostic equations that are stepped forward in time (typically winds, temperature, moisture, and surface pressure) together with a number of diagnostic equations that are evaluated from the simultaneous values of the variables. As an example, pressure at any height can be diagnosed by applying the hydrostatic equation to the predicted surface pressure and the predicted values of temperature between the surface and the height of interest. The pressure diagnosed in this way then is used to compute the pressure gradient force in the time-dependent equation for the winds. Oceanic GCMs (OGCMs) model the ocean (with fluxes from the atmosphere imposed) and may or may not contain a sea ice model. For example, the standard resolution of HadOM3 is 1.25 degrees in latitude and longitude, with 20 vertical levels, leading to approximately 1,500,000 variables. Coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs (AOGCMs) (e.g. HadCM3, GFDL CM2.X) combine the two models. They thus have the advantage of removing the need to specify fluxes across the interface of the ocean surface. These models are the basis for sophisticated model predictions of future climate, such as are discussed by the IPCC. AOGCMs represent the pinnacle of complexity in climate models and internalise as many processes as possible. They are the only tools that could provide detailed regional predictions of future climate change. However, they are still under development. The simpler models are generally susceptible to simple analysis and their results are generally easy to understand. AOGCMs, by contrast, are often nearly as hard to analyse as the real climate system.

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Model grids
The fluid equations for AGCMs are discretised using either the finite difference method or the spectral method. For finite differences, a grid is imposed on the atmosphere. The simplest grid uses constant angular grid spacing (i.e., a latitude / longitude grid), however, more sophisticated non-rectantangular grids (e.g., icohedral) and grids of variable resolution[12] are more often used.[13] The "LMDz" model can be arranged to give high resolution over any given section of the planet. HadGEM1 (and other ocean models) use an ocean grid with higher resolution in the tropics to help resolve processes believed to be important for ENSO. Spectral models generally use a gaussian grid, because of the mathematics of transformation between spectral and grid-point space. Typical AGCM resolutions are between 1 and 5 degrees in latitude or longitude: the Hadley Centre model HadCM3, for example, uses 3.75 in longitude and 2.5 degrees in latitude, giving a grid of 96 by 73 points (96 x 72 for some variables); and has 19 levels in the vertical. This results in approximately 500,000 "basic" variables, since each grid point has four variables (u,v, T, Q), though a full count would give more (clouds; soil levels). HadGEM1 uses a grid of 1.875 degrees in longitude and 1.25 in latitude in the atmosphere; HiGEM, a high-resolution variant, uses 1.25 x 0.83 degrees respectively.[14] These resolutions are lower than is typically used for weather forecasting.[15] Ocean resolutions tend to be higher, for example HadCM3 has 6 ocean grid points per atmospheric grid point in the horizontal. For a standard finite difference model, uniform gridlines converge towards the poles. This would lead to computational instabilities (see CFL condition) and so the model variables must be filtered along lines of latitude close to the poles. Ocean models suffer from this problem too, unless a rotated grid is used in which the North Pole is shifted onto a nearby landmass. Spectral models do not suffer from this problem. There are experiments using geodesic grids[16] and icosahedral grids, which (being more uniform) do not have pole-problems. Another approach to solving the grid spacing problem is to deform a Cartesian cube such that it covers the surface of a sphere.[17]

Flux correction
Early generations of AOGCMs required a somewhat ad hoc process of "flux correction" to achieve a stable climate. The danger, however, is that a model may need flux corrections because of unrealistically strong feedback processes that result in a transition to a different climate state. As a result, there has been strong movement away from the use of flux corrections, and the vast majority of models used in the current round of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change do not use them. The model improvements that now make flux corrections unnecessary are various, but include improved ocean physics, improved resolution in both atmosphere and ocean, and more physically consistent coupling between atmosphere and ocean models.

Convection
Moist convection causes the release of latent heat and is important to the Earth's energy budget. Convection occurs on too small a scale to be resolved by climate models, and hence must be parameterised. This has been done since the earliest days of climate modelling, in the 1950s. Akio Arakawa did much of the early work and variants of his scheme are still used [18] although there is a variety of different schemes now in use [19] [20] [21]. The behavior of clouds is still poorly understood and is parametrized. [22].

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Output variables
Most models include software to diagnose a wide range of variables for comparison with observations or study of atmospheric processes. An example is the 1.5 metre temperature, which is the standard height for near-surface observations of air temperature. This temperature is not directly predicted from the model but is deduced from the surface and lowest-model-layer temperatures. Other software is used for creating plots and animations.

Projections of future climate change
Coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs use transient climate simulations to project/predict future temperature changes under various scenarios. These can be idealised scenarios (most commonly, CO2 increasing at 1%/yr) or more realistic (usually the "IS92a" or more recently the SRES scenarios). Which scenarios should be considered most realistic is currently uncertain, as the projections of future CO2 (and sulphate) emission are themselves uncertain. The 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report figure 9.3 [23] shows the global Shows the distribution of warming during the late 21st century predicted by the HadCM3 climate model (one of those used by the IPCC) if a business-as-usual scenario is assumed mean response of 19 different coupled for economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. The average warming predicted by models to an idealised experiment in this model is 3.0 °C. which CO2 is increased at 1% per year [24]. Figure 9.5 [25] shows the response of a smaller number of models to more realistic forcing. For the 7 climate models shown there, the temperature change to 2100 varies from 2 to 4.5 °C with a median of about 3 °C. Future scenarios do not include unknowable events - for example, volcanic eruptions or changes in solar forcing. These effects are believed to be small in comparison to GHG forcing in the long term, but large volcanic eruptions, for example, are known to exert a temporary cooling effect. Human emissions of GHGs are an external input to the models, although it would be possible to couple in an economic model to provide these as well. Atmospheric GHG levels are usually supplied as an input, though it is possible to include a carbon cycle model including land vegetation and oceanic processes to calculate GHG levels.

Emissions scenarios
For the six SRES marker scenarios, IPCC (2007:7-8) gave a "best estimate" of global mean temperature increase (2090-2099 relative to the period 1980-1999) that ranged from 1.8 °C to 4.0 °C. Over the same time period, the "likely" range (greater than 66% probability, based on expert judgement) for these scenarios was for a global mean temperature increase of between 1.1 and 6.4 °C.[26] Pope (2008) described a study where climate change projections were made using several different emission scenarios.[27] In a scenario where global emissions start to decrease by 2010 and then decline at a sustained rate of 3% per year, the likely global average temperature increase was predicted to be 1.7 °C above pre-industrial levels by 2050, rising to around 2 °C by 2100. In a projection designed to simulate a future where no efforts are made to reduce global emissions, the likely rise in global average temperature was predicted to be 5.5 °C by 2100. A rise as

Global climate model high as 7 °C was thought possible but less likely. Sokolov et al. (2009) examined a scenario designed to simulate a future where there is no policy to reduce emissions. In their integrated model, this scenario resulted in a median warming over land (2090-2099 relative to the period 1980-1999) of 5.1 °C. Under the same emissions scenario but with different modeling of the future climate, the predicted median warming was 4.1 °C.[28]

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Accuracy of models that predict global warming
AOGCMs represent the pinnacle of complexity in climate models and internalise as many processes as possible. However, they are still under development and uncertainties remain. They may be coupled to models of other processes, such as the carbon cycle, so as to better model feedback effects. Most recent simulations show "plausible" agreement with the measured temperature anomalies over the past 150 years, when forced by observed changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols, but better agreement is achieved when natural forcings are also included.[29] [30] No model – whether a wind tunnel model for designing aircraft, or a climate model for projecting global warming – perfectly reproduces the system being modeled. Such inherently imperfect models may nevertheless produce useful results. In this context, GCMs are capable of reproducing the general features of the observed global temperature over the past century.[31] A debate over how to reconcile climate model predictions that upper air (tropospheric) warming should be greater than surface warming, with observations some of which appeared to show otherwise [32] now appears to have been resolved in favour of the models, following revisions to the data: see satellite temperature record. The effects of clouds are a significant area of uncertainty in climate models. Clouds have competing effects on the climate. One of the roles that clouds play in climate is in cooling the surface by reflecting sunlight back into space; another is warming by increasing the amount of infrared radiation emitted from the atmosphere to the surface.[33] In the 2001 IPCC report on climate change, the possible changes in cloud cover were highlighted as one of the dominant uncertainties in predicting future climate change; see also [34]. Thousands of climate researchers around the world use climate models to understand the climate system. There

Mean global temperatures from observations and two climate models.

SST errors in HadCM3

North American precipitation from various models.

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are thousands of papers published about model-based studies in peer-reviewed journals - and a part of this research is work improving the models. Improvement has been difficult but steady (most obviously, state of the art AOGCMs no longer require flux correction), and progress has sometimes led to discovering new uncertainties. In 2000, a comparison between measurements and dozens of GCM simulations of ENSO-driven tropical precipitation, water vapor, temperature, and outgoing longwave radiation found similarity between Temperature predictions from some climate models assuming the measurements and simulation of most factors. However SRES A2 emissions scenario. the simulated change in precipitation was about one-fourth less than what was observed. Errors in simulated precipitation imply errors in other processes, such as errors in the evaporation rate that provides moisture to create precipitation. The other possibility is that the satellite-based measurements are in error. Either indicates progress is required in order to monitor and predict such changes. [35] A more complete discussion of climate models is provided by the IPCC TAR chapter 8, Model Evaluation (2001). • The model mean exhibits good agreement with observations. • The individual models often exhibit worse agreement with observations. • Many of the non-flux adjusted models suffered from unrealistic climate drift up to about 1°C/century in global mean surface temperature. • The errors in model-mean surface air temperature rarely exceed 1 °C over the oceans and 5 °C over the continents; precipitation and sea level pressure errors are relatively greater but the magnitudes and patterns of these quantities are recognisably similar to observations. • Surface air temperature is particularly well simulated, with nearly all models closely matching the observed magnitude of variance and exhibiting a correlation > 0.95 with the observations. • Simulated variance of sea level pressure and precipitation is within ±25% of observed. • All models have shortcomings in their simulations of the present day climate of the stratosphere, which might limit the accuracy of predictions of future climate change. • There is a tendency for the models to show a global mean cold bias at all levels. • There is a large scatter in the tropical temperatures. • The polar night jets in most models are inclined poleward with height, in noticeable contrast to an equatorward inclination of the observed jet. • There is a differing degree of separation in the models between the winter sub-tropical jet and the polar night jet. • For nearly all models the r.m.s. error in zonal- and annual-mean surface air temperature is small compared with its natural variability. • There are problems in simulating natural seasonal variability.( 2000) [37] • In flux-adjusted models, seasonal variations are simulated to within 2 K of observed values over the oceans. The corresponding average over non-flux-adjusted models shows errors up to about 6 K in extensive ocean areas. • Near-surface land temperature errors are substantial in the average over flux-adjusted models, which systematically underestimates (by about 5 K) temperature in areas of elevated terrain. The corresponding average over non-flux-adjusted models forms a similar error pattern (with somewhat increased amplitude)
[36]

Global climate model over land. • In Southern Ocean mid-latitudes, the non-flux-adjusted models overestimate the magnitude of January-minus-July temperature differences by ~5 K due to an overestimate of summer (January) near-surface temperature. This error is common to five of the eight non-flux-adjusted models. • Over Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude land areas, zonal mean differences between July and January temperatures simulated by the non-flux-adjusted models show a greater spread (positive and negative) about observed values than results from the flux-adjusted models. • The ability of coupled GCMs to simulate a reasonable seasonal cycle is a necessary condition for confidence in their prediction of long-term climatic changes (such as global warming), but it is not a sufficient condition unless the seasonal cycle and long-term changes involve similar climatic processes. • Coupled climate models do not simulate with reasonable accuracy clouds and some related hydrological processes (in particular those involving upper tropospheric humidity). Problems in the simulation of clouds and upper tropospheric humidity, remain worrisome because the associated processes account for most of the uncertainty in climate model simulations of anthropogenic change. The precise magnitude of future changes in climate is still uncertain [38]; for the end of the 21st century (2071 to 2100), for SRES scenario A2, the change of global average SAT change from AOGCMs compared with 1961 to 1990 is +3.0 °C (4.8 °F) and the range is +1.3 to +4.5 °C (+2 to +7.2 °F). Forecasts of climate change are inevitably uncertain. Even the degree of uncertainty is uncertain, a problem that stems from the fact that these climate models do not necessarily span the full range of known climate system behavior. [39]

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Relation to weather forecasting
The global climate models used for climate projections are very similar in structure to (and often share computer code with) numerical models for weather prediction but are nonetheless logically distinct. Most weather forecasting is done on the basis of interpreting the output of numerical model results. Since forecasts are short—typically a few days or a week—such models do not usually contain an ocean model but rely on imposed SSTs. They also require accurate initial conditions to begin the forecast—typically these are taken from the output of a previous forecast, with observations blended in. Because the results are needed quickly the predictions must be run in a few hours; but because they only need to cover a week of real time these predictions can be run at higher resolution than in climate mode. Currently the ECMWF runs at 40 km (25 mi) resolution [40] as opposed to the 100-to-200 km (62-to-120 mi) scale used by typical climate models. Often nested models are run forced by the global models for boundary conditions, to achieve higher local resolution: for example, the Met Office runs a mesoscale model with an 11 km (6.8 mi) resolution [41] covering the UK, and various agencies in the U.S. also run nested models such as the NGM and NAM models. Like most global numerical weather prediction models such as the GFS, global climate models are often spectral models [42] instead of grid models. Spectral models are often used for global models because some computations in modeling can be performed faster thus reducing the time needed to run the model simulation.

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Computations involved
Climate models use quantitative methods to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and ice. They are used for a variety of purposes from study of the dynamics of the climate system to projections of future climate. All climate models take account of incoming energy as short wave electromagnetic radiation, chiefly visible and short-wave (near) infrared, as well as outgoing energy as long wave (far) infrared electromagnetic radiation from the earth. Any imbalance results in a change in temperature. The most talked-about models of recent years have been those relating temperature to emissions of carbon dioxide (see greenhouse gas). These models project an upward trend in the surface temperature record, as well as a more rapid increase in temperature at higher altitudes.[43] Three (or more properly, four since time is also considered) dimensional GCM's discretise the equations for fluid motion and energy transfer and integrate these over time. They also contain parametrisations for processes—such as convection—that occur on scales too small to be resolved directly. Atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs) model the atmosphere and impose sea surface temperatures as boundary conditions. Coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs (AOGCMs, e.g. HadCM3, EdGCM, GFDL CM2.X, ARPEGE-Climat[44] ) combine the two models. Models can range from relatively simple to quite complex: • A simple radiant heat transfer model that treats the earth as a single point and averages outgoing energy • this can be expanded vertically (radiative-convective models), or horizontally • finally, (coupled) atmosphere–ocean–sea ice global climate models discretise and solve the full equations for mass and energy transfer and radiant exchange. This is not a full list; for example "box models" can be written to treat flows across and within ocean basins. Furthermore, other types of modelling can be interlinked, such as land use, allowing researchers to predict the interaction between climate and ecosystems.

Box models
Box models are simplified versions of complex systems, reducing them to boxes (or reservoirs) linked by fluxes. The boxes are assumed to be mixed homogeneously. Within a given box, the concentration of any chemical species is therefore uniform. However, the abundance of a species within a given box may vary as a function of time due to the input to (or loss from) the box or due to the production, consumption or decay of this species within the box. Simple box models, i.e. box model with a small number of boxes whose properties (e.g. their volume) do not change with time, are often useful to derive analytical formulas describing the dynamics and steady-state abundance of a species. More complex box models are usually solved using numerical techniques. Box models are used extensively to model environmental systems or ecosystems and in studies of ocean circulation and the carbon cycle.[45]

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Zero-dimensional models
A very simple model of the radiative equilibrium of the Earth is:

where • the left hand side represents the incoming energy from the Sun • the right hand side represents the outgoing energy from the Earth, calculated from the Stefan-Boltzmann law assuming a constant radiative temperature, T, that is to be found, and • S is the solar constant - the incoming solar radiation per unit area—about 1367 W·m−2 • is the Earth's average albedo, measured to be 0.3.[46] [47] • r is Earth's radius—approximately 6.371×106m • π is the mathematical constant (3.141...) • is the Stefan-Boltzmann constant—approximately 5.67×10−8 J·K−4·m−2·s−1 • is the effective emissivity of earth, about 0.612 The constant πr2 can be factored out, giving

Solving for the temperature,

This yields an average earth temperature of 288 K (15 °C; 59 °F).[48] This is because the above equation represents the effective radiative temperature of the Earth (including the clouds and atmosphere). The use of effective emissivity and albedo account for the greenhouse effect. This very simple model is quite instructive. For example, it easily determines the effect on average earth temperature of changes in solar constant or change of albedo or effective earth emissivity. Using the simple formula, the percent change of the average amount of each parameter, considered independently, to cause a one degree Celsius change in steady-state average earth temperature is as follows: • Solar constant 1.4% • Albedo 3.3% • Effective emissivity 1.4% The average emissivity of the earth is readily estimated from available data. The emissivities of terrestrial surfaces are all in the range of 0.96 to 0.99[49] [50] (except for some small desert areas which may be as low as 0.7). Clouds, however, which cover about half of the earth’s surface, have an average emissivity of about 0.5[51] (which must be reduced by the fourth power of the ratio of cloud absolute temperature to average earth absolute temperature) and an average cloud temperature of about 258 K (−15 °C; 5 °F).[52] Taking all this properly into account results in an effective earth emissivity of about 0.64 (earth average temperature 285 K (12 °C; 53 °F)). This simple model readily determines the effect of changes in solar output or change of earth albedo or effective earth emissivity on average earth temperature. It says nothing, however about what might cause these things to change. Zero-dimensional models do not address the temperature distribution on the earth or the factors that move energy about the earth.

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Radiative-Convective Models
The zero-dimensional model above, using the solar constant and given average earth temperature, determines the effective earth emissivity of long wave radiation emitted to space. This can be refined in the vertical to a zero-dimensional radiative-convective model, which considers two processes of energy transport: • upwelling and downwelling radiative transfer through atmospheric layers that both absorb and emit infrared radiation • upward transport of heat by convection (especially important in the lower troposphere). The radiative-convective models have advantages over the simple model: they can determine the effects of varying greenhouse gas concentrations on effective emissivity and therefore the surface temperature. But added parameters are needed to determine local emissivity and albedo and address the factors that move energy about the earth. Links: • "Effect of Ice-Albedo Feedback on Global Sensitivity in a One-Dimensional Radiative-Convective Climate Model" [53] • http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/258.htm

Higher Dimension Models
The zero-dimensional model may be expanded to consider the energy transported horizontally in the atmosphere. This kind of model may well be zonally averaged. This model has the advantage of allowing a rational dependence of local albedo and emissivity on temperature - the poles can be allowed to be icy and the equator warm - but the lack of true dynamics means that horizontal transports have to be specified. • http://www.shodor.org/master/environmental/general/energy/application.html

EMICs (Earth-system Models of Intermediate Complexity)
Depending on the nature of questions asked and the pertinent time scales, there are, on the one extreme, conceptual, more inductive models, and, on the other extreme, general circulation models operating at the highest spatial and temporal resolution currently feasible. Models of intermediate complexity bridge the gap. One example is the Climber-3 model. Its atmosphere is a 2.5-dimensional statistical-dynamical model with 7.5° × 22.5° resolution and time step of 1/2 a day; the ocean is MOM-3 (Modular Ocean Model) with a 3.75° × 3.75° grid and 24 vertical levels. • http://www.pik-potsdam.de/emics/

Climate modellers
A climate modeller is a person who designs, develops, implements, tests, maintains or exploits climate models. There are three major types of institutions where a climate modeller may be found: • In a national meteorological service. Most national weather services have at least a climatology section. • In a university. Departments that may have climate modellers on staff include atmospheric sciences, meteorology, climatology, or geography, amongst others. • In national or international research laboratories specialising in this field, such as the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR, in Boulder, Colorado, USA), the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL, in Princeton, New Jersey, USA), the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (in Exeter, UK), the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany, or the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL in Paris, France). The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), hosted by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), coordinates research activities on climate modelling worldwide.

Global climate model

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Climate models on the web
• National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System [54] (NOMADS) is a NOAA Web-services based project providing both real-time and retrospective format independent access to climate and weather model data. • Dapper/DChart [55] — plot and download model data referenced by the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. • http://www.hadleycentre.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/models/modeltypes.html — Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research — general info on their models • http://www.ccsm.ucar.edu/ — NCAR/UCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) • http://www.climateprediction.net — do it yourself climate prediction • http://www.giss.nasa.gov/tools/modelE/ — the primary research GCM developed by NASA/GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) • http://edgcm.columbia.edu/ — the original NASA/GISS global climate model (GCM) with a user-friendly interface for PCs and Macs • http://www.cccma.bc.ec.gc.ca/ — CCCma model info and interface to retrieve model data • http://nomads.gfdl.noaa.gov/CM2.X/ — NOAA / Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2 global climate model info and model output data files • http://www.climate.uvic.ca/ — University of Victoria Global climate model, free for download. Leading researcher was a contributing author to the recent IPCC report on climate change.

References
[1] ": The First Climate Model" (http:/ / celebrating200years. noaa. gov/ breakthroughs/ climate_model/ welcome. html). NOAA 200th Celebration. 2007. . Retrieved 2010-04-20. [2] Phillips, Norman A. (April 1956). "The general circulation of the atmosphere: a numerical experiment". Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 82 (352): 123–154. [3] Cox, John D. (2002). Storm Watchers. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.. p. 210. ISBN 047138108X. [4] Lynch, Peter (2006). "The ENIAC Integrations". The Emergence of Numerical Weather Prediction. Cambridge University Press. pp. 206–208. ISBN 9780521857291. [5] http:/ / celebrating200years. noaa. gov/ breakthroughs/ climate_model/ welcome. html [6] Collins, William D.; et al. (June 2004). "Description of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 3.0)" (http:/ / www. cesm. ucar. edu/ models/ atm-cam/ docs/ description/ description. pdf). University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. . Retrieved 2011-01-03. [7] Xue, Yongkang and Michael J. Fennessey (1996-03-20). "Impact of vegetation properties on U. S. summer weather prediction" (http:/ / www. geog. ucla. edu/ ~yxue/ pdf/ 1996jgr. pdf). Journal of Geophysical Research (American Geophysical Union) 101 (D3): 7419. . Retrieved 2011-01-06. [8] McGuffie, K. and A. Henderson-Sellers (2005). A climate modelling primer. John Wiley and Sons. p. 188. ISBN 9780470857519. [9] Allen, Jeannie (2004-02). "Tango in the Atmosphere: Ozone and Climate Change" (http:/ / www. theozonehole. com/ climate. htm). NASA Earth Observatory. . Retrieved 2010-04-20. [10] Ken, Richard A (2001-04-13). "Global Warming: Rising Global Temperature, Rising Uncertainty" (http:/ / www. sciencemag. org/ cgi/ content/ full/ 292/ 5515/ 192). Science 292 (5515): 192–194. doi:10.1126/science.292.5515.192. PMID 11305301. . Retrieved 2010-04-20. [11] "Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project" (http:/ / www-pcmdi. llnl. gov/ projects/ amip/ index. php). The Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. . Retrieved 2010-04-21. [12] C. Jablonowski , M. Herzog , J. E. Penner , R. C. Oehmke , Q. F. Stout , B. van Leer, "Adaptive Grids for Weather and Climate Models" (http:/ / citeseerx. ist. psu. edu/ viewdoc/ summary?doi=10. 1. 1. 60. 5091) (2004). See also Christiane Jablonowski, Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) for Weather and Climate Models (http:/ / www-personal. umich. edu/ ~cjablono/ amr. html) page (accessed July 24, 2010) [13] NCAR Command Language documentation: Non-uniform grids that NCL can contour (http:/ / www. ncl. ucar. edu/ Document/ Graphics/ contour_grids. shtml) (accessed July 24, 2010) [14] "High Resolution Global Environmental Modelling (HiGEM) home page" (http:/ / higem. nerc. ac. uk/ ). Natural Environment Research Council and Met Office. May 18 2004. . Retrieved October 5 2010. [15] "Mesoscale modelling" (http:/ / www. metoffice. gov. uk/ science/ creating/ hoursahead/ mesoscale. html). . Retrieved 5 October 2010. [16] "Climate Model Will Be First To Use A Geodesic Grid" (http:/ / www. unisci. com/ stories/ 20013/ 0924011. htm). Daly University Science News. 24 September 2001. . Retrieved 3 May 2011. [17] "Gridding the sphere" (http:/ / mitgcm. org/ projects/ cubedsphere/ ). MIT GCM. . Retrieved 9 September 2010. [18] http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ arakawa. htm [19] http:/ / grads. iges. org/ reps/ rep27/ colarep27. html

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[20] http:/ / www-pcmdi. llnl. gov/ projects/ modeldoc/ amip/ 10Tbl2. 10. html [21] http:/ / rainbow. llnl. gov/ projects/ modeldoc/ cmip/ table4. html [22] http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ GCM. htm [23] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ fig9-3. htm [24] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 348. htm#fig93 [25] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ fig9-5. htm [26] IPCC (2007). "Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report. htm)"]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. pp. 104. . Retrieved 2009-05-20. [27] Pope, V. (2008). "Met Office: The scientific evidence for early action on climate change" (http:/ / www. metoffice. gov. uk/ climatechange/ policymakers/ action/ evidence. html). Met Office website. . Retrieved 2009-03-07. [28] Sokolov, A.P. et al. (2009). "Probabilistic Forecast for 21st Century Climate Based on Uncertainties in Emissions (without Policy) and Climate Parameters" (http:/ / ams. allenpress. com/ perlserv/ ?request=get-abstract& doi=10. 1175/ 2009JCLI2863. 1). Journal of Climate 22 (19): 5175–5204. doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2863.1. . Retrieved 2009-01-12. [29] "Climate Change 2001: Working Group I: The Scientific Basis" (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ figspm-4. htm). . [30] "Simulated global warming 1860–2000" (http:/ / www. hadleycentre. gov. uk/ research/ hadleycentre/ pubs/ talks/ sld017. html). . [31] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ figspm-4. htm [32] http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20060420125451/ http:/ / www4. nationalacademies. org/ news. nsf/ isbn/ 0309068916?OpenDocument [33] http:/ / liftoff. msfc. nasa. gov/ academy/ space/ greenhouse. html [34] http:/ / ams. allenpress. com/ amsonline/ ?request=get-document& doi=10. 1175%2FJCLI3799. 1 [35] http:/ / ams. allenpress. com/ amsonline/ ?request=get-abstract& doi=10. 1175%2F1520-0442(2000)013%3C0538:TSOTTH%3E2. 0. CO%3B2 [36] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 308. htm [37] http:/ / pubs. giss. nasa. gov/ abstracts/ 2000/ CoveyAbeOuchi. html [38] http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg1/ 339. htm [39] http:/ / epw. senate. gov/ repwhitepapers/ ClimateChange. pdf [40] http:/ / www. ecmwf. int/ index_forecasts. html [41] http:/ / www. metoffice. gov. uk/ research/ nwp/ numerical/ operational/ index. html [42] http:/ / www-das. uwyo. edu/ ~geerts/ cwx/ notes/ chap12/ nwp_gcm. html [43] IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007 Chapter 10: Global Climate Projections (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg1/ en/ ch10. html) [44] http:/ / www. cnrm. meteo. fr/ gmgec/ site_engl/ arpege/ arpege_en. html [45] Sarmiento, J.L.; Toggweiler, J.R. (1984). "A new model for the role of the oceans in determining atmospheric P CO 2" (http:/ / www. nature. com/ nature/ journal/ v308/ n5960/ abs/ 308621a0. html). Nature 308 (5960): 621–4. doi:10.1038/308621a0. . [46] Goode, P. R.; et al. (2001). "Earthshine Observations of the Earth’s Reflectance". Geophys. Res. Lett. 28 (9): 1671–4. Bibcode 2001GeoRL..28.1671G. doi:10.1029/2000GL012580. [47] "Scientists Watch Dark Side of the Moon to Monitor Earth's Climate" (http:/ / www. agu. org/ sci_soc/ prrl/ prrl0113. html). American Geophysical Union. April 17, 2001. . [48] http:/ / eospso. gsfc. nasa. gov/ ftp_docs/ lithographs/ CERES_litho. pdf [49] http:/ / www. icess. ucsb. edu/ modis/ EMIS/ html/ seawater. html [50] Jin M, Liang S (15 June 2006). "An Improved Land Surface Emissivity Parameter for Land Surface Models Using Global Remote Sensing Observations" (http:/ / www. glue. umd. edu/ ~sliang/ papers/ Jin2006. emissivity. pdf). J. Climate 19 (12): 2867–81. doi:10.1175/JCLI3720.1. . [51] T.R. Shippert, S.A. Clough, P.D. Brown, W.L. Smith, R.O. Knuteson, and S.A. Ackerman. "Spectral Cloud Emissivities from LBLRTM/AERI QME" (http:/ / www. arm. gov/ publications/ proceedings/ conf08/ extended_abs/ shippert_tr. pdf). Proceedings of the Eighth Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Science Team Meeting March 1998 Tucson, Arizona. . [52] A.G. Gorelik, V. Sterljadkin, E. Kadygrov, and A. Koldaev. "Microwave and IR Radiometry for Estimation of Atmospheric Radiation Balance and Sea Ice Formation" (http:/ / www. arm. gov/ publications/ proceedings/ conf11/ extended_abs/ gorelik_ag. pdf). Proceedings of the Eleventh Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Science Team Meeting March 2001 Atlanta, Georgia. . [53] doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1980)037<0545:EOIAFO>2.0.CO;2 This citation will be automatically completed in the next few minutes. You can jump the queue or expand by hand (http:/ / en. wikipedia. org/ wiki/ Template:cite_doi/ 10. 1175. 2f1520-0469. 281980. 29037. 3c0545%3aeoiafo. 3e2. 0. co. 3b2?preload=Template:Cite_doi/ preload& editintro=Template:Cite_doi/ editintro& action=edit) [54] http:/ / nomads. ncdc. noaa. gov/ [55] http:/ / dapper. pmel. noaa. gov/ dchart/ index. html?cid=AAAAHg@@

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External links
• Climate Change Prediction: A challenging scientific problem (2005) (http://www.iop.org/activity/policy/ Publications/file_4147.pdf). By Prof. A.J. Thorpe. Explains how predictions of future climate change are made using climate models. • Climate Simulations for 1951–2050 with a Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean Model (http://stephenschneider. stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/SunHansenJOC.pdf) by Sun and Hansen (2003) • History of Global Climate Modelling (http://www.aip.org/history/climate/GCM.htm) • E-Media from GFDL's CCVP Group (http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/e-media-gfdl-ccvp-group-main). Includes videos, animations, podcasts and transcripts on climate models. • (http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~fms) GFDL's Flexible Modeling System containing code for the climate models. • Dapper/DChart (http://dapper.pmel.noaa.gov/dchart/index.html?cid=AAAAHg@@) - plot and download model data referenced by the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. • Chapter 8: Climate Models and Their Evaluation (http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ ar4-wg1-chapter8.pdf). The IPCC Working Group I Fourth Assessment Report (2007). • CCSP, 2008: Climate Models: An Assessment of Strengths and Limitations (http://www.climatescience.gov/ Library/sap/sap3-1/final-report/default.htm) A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research [Bader D.C., C. Covey, W.J. Gutowski Jr., I.M. Held, K.E. Kunkel, R.L. Miller, R.T. Tokmakian and M.H. Zhang (Authors)]. Department of Energy, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, Washington, D.C., USA, 124 pp. • BBC News: Models 'key to climate forecasts' (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/6320515.stm). Dr Vicky Pope of the Hadley Centre explains how computer models are used to predict the day-to-day weather and changes to the climate (2007). • The scientific basis for projections of climate change (in a nutshell) (http://uc.princeton.edu/main/index.php/ component/content/article/3181). Video of a lecture given at Princeton University by Isaac Held, Professor of Geosciences and Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). February 26, 2008. • (IPCC 2001 section 8.3) (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/313.htm) — on model hierarchy • (IPCC 2001 section 8) (http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/308.htm) — much information on coupled GCM's • Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/projects/modeldoc/cmip/index.html) • On the Radiative and Dynamical Feedbacks over the Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue (http://ams.allenpress. com/amsonline/?request=get-abstract&doi=10.1175/2786.1) • Basic Radiation Calculations (http://www.aip.org/history/climate/Radmath.htm) — The Discovery of Global Warming • Henderson-Sellers, A.; Robinson, P. J. (1999). Contemporary Climatology (http://www.pearsoned.co.uk/ Bookshop/detail.asp?item=100000000002249). New York: Longman. ISBN 0-582-27631-4.

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History of climate change science
The history of the scientific discovery of climate change began in the early 19th century when natural changes in paleoclimate were first suspected and the natural greenhouse effect first identified. In the late 19th century, scientists first argued that human emissions of greenhouse gases could change the climate, but the calculations were disputed. In the 1950s and 1960s, scientists increasingly thought that human activity could change the climate on a timescale of decades, but were unsure whether the net impact would be to warm or cool the climate. During the 1970s, scientific opinion increasingly favored the warming viewpoint. In the 1980s the consensus position formed that human activity was in the process of warming the climate, leading to the beginning of the modern period of global warming science summarized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Paleoclimate change and the natural greenhouse effect, early and mid 1800s
Prior to the 18th century, scientists had not suspected that prehistoric climates were different from the modern period. By the late 18th century, geologists found evidence of a succession of geological ages with changes in climate. There were various competing theories about these changes, and James Hutton, whose ideas of cyclic change over huge periods of time were later dubbed uniformitarianism, was among those who found signs of past glacial activity in places too warm for glaciers in modern times.[1] Although he wasn't a scientist, in 1815 Jean-Pierre Perraudin described Erratics, boulders deposited by glaciers far from for the first time how glaciers might be responsible for the giant any existing glaciers, led geologists to the conclusion that climate had changed in the past. boulders seen in alpine valleys. As he hiked in the Val de Bagnes, he noticed giant granite rocks that were scattered around the narrow valley. He knew that it would take an exceptional force to move such large rocks. He also noticed how glaciers left stripes on the land, and concluded that it was the ice that had carried the boulders down into the valleys.[2] His idea was initially met with disbelief. Jean de Charpentier wrote, "I found his hypothesis so extraordinary and even so extravagant that I considered it as not worth examining or even considering."[3] Despite Charpentier rejecting his theory, Perraudin eventually convinced Ignaz Venetz that it might be worth studying. Venetz convinced Charpentier, who in turn convinced the influential scientist Louis Agassiz that the glacial theory had merit.[2] Agassiz developed a theory of what he termed "Ice Age" — when glaciers covered Europe and much of North America. In 1837 Agassiz was the first to scientifically propose that the Earth had been subject to a past ice age.[4] William Buckland had led attempts in Britain to adapt the geological theory of catastrophism to account for erratic boulders and other "diluvium" as relics of the Biblical flood. This was strongly opposed by Charles Lyell's version of Hutton's uniformitarianism, and was gradually abandoned by Buckland and other catastrophist geologists. A field trip to the Alps with Agassiz in October 1838 convinced Buckland that features in Britain had been caused by glaciation, and both he and Lyell strongly supported the ice age theory which became widely accepted by the 1870s.[1] In the same general period that scientists first suspected climate change and ice ages, Joseph Fourier, in 1824, found that Earth's atmosphere kept the planet warmer than would be the case in a vacuum, and he made the first calculations of the warming effect. Fourier recognized that the atmosphere transmitted visible light waves efficiently to the earth's surface. The earth then absorbed visible light and emitted infrared radiation in response, but the atmosphere did not transmit infrared efficiently, which therefore increased surface temperatures. He also suspected that human activities could influence climate, although he focused primarily on land use changes. In a 1827 paper Fourier stated, "The establishment and progress of human societies, the action of natural forces, can notably change,

History of climate change science and in vast regions, the state of the surface, the distribution of water and the great movements of the air. Such effects are able to make to vary, in the course of many centuries, the average degree of heat; because the analytic expressions contain coefficients relating to the state of the surface and which greatly influence the temperature."[5] John Tyndall took Fourier's work one step further when he investigated the absorption of heat in different gases.[6]

213

First calculations of human-induced climate change, late 1800s
By the late 1890s, American scientist Samuel Pierpoint Langley had attempted to determine the surface temperature of the moon by measuring infrared radiation leaving the moon and reaching the earth.[7] The angle of the moon in the sky when a scientist took a measurement determined how much CO2 and water vapor the moon's radiation had to pass through to reach the earth's surface, resulting in weaker measurements when the moon was low in the sky. This result was unsurprising given that scientists had known about the greenhouse effect for decades. Meanwhile, Swedish scientist Arvid Högbom had been attempting to quantify natural sources of emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) for purposes of understanding the global carbon cycle. Högbom decided to compare the natural sources with estimated carbon production from industrial sources in the 1890s.[8]
In 1896 Svante Arrhenius calculated the effect of

Another Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius, integrated Högbom and a doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide to be an increase in surface temperatures of 5-6 degrees Langley's work. He realized that Högbom's calculation of human Celsius. influence on carbon would eventually lead to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and used Langley's observations of increased infrared absorption where moon rays pass through atmosphere at a low angle, encountering more CO2, to estimate an atmospheric warming effect from a future doubling of CO2. He also realized the effect would also reduce snow and ice cover on earth, making the planet darker and warmer. Adding in this effect gave a total calculated warming of 5-6 degrees Celsius. However, because of the relatively low rate of CO2 production in 1896, Arrhenius thought the warming would take thousands of years and might even be beneficial to humanity.[8]

Controversy and disinterest, early 1900s to mid 1900s
Arrhenius' calculations were disputed and subsumed into a larger debate over whether atmospheric changes had caused the ice ages. Experimental attempts to measure infrared absorption in the laboratory showed little differences resulted from increasing CO2 levels, and also found significant overlap between absorption by CO2 and absorption by water vapor, all of which suggested that increasing carbon dioxide emissions would have little climatic effect. These early experiments were later found to be insufficiently accurate, given the instrumentation of the time. Many scientists also thought that oceans would quickly absorb any excess carbon dioxide.[8] While a few early 20th-Century scientists supported Arrhenius' work, including E. O. Hulburt and Guy Stewart Callendar, most scientific opinion disputed or ignored it through the early 1950s.[8]

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Concern and increasing urgency, 1950s and 1960s
Better spectrography in the 1950s showed that CO2 and water vapor absorption lines did not overlap completely. Climatologists also realized that little water vapor was present in the upper atmosphere. Both developments showed that the CO2 greenhouse effect would not be overwhelmed by water vapor.[8] Scientists began using computers to develop more sophisticated versions of Arrhenius' equations, and carbon-14 isotope analysis showed that CO2 released from fossil fuels were not immediately absorbed by the ocean. Better understanding of ocean chemistry led to a realization that the ocean surface layer had limited ability to absorb carbon dioxide. By the late 1950s, more scientists were arguing that carbon dioxide emissions could be a problem, with some projecting in 1959 that CO2 would rise 25% by the year 2000, with potentially "radical" effects on climate.[8] By the 1960s, aerosol pollution ("smog") had become a serious local problem in many cities, and some scientists began to consider whether the cooling effect of particulate pollution could affect global temperatures. Scientists were unsure whether the cooling effect of particulate pollution or warming effect of greenhouse gas emissions would predominate, but regardless, began to suspect the net effect could be disruptive to climate in the matter of decades. In his 1968 book The Population Bomb, Paul R. Ehrlich wrote "the greenhouse effect is being enhanced now by the greatly increased level of carbon dioxide... [this] is being countered by low-level clouds generated by contrails, dust, and other contaminants... At the moment we cannot predict what the overall climatic results will be of our using the atmosphere as a garbage dump."[9]

Scientists increasingly predicting warming, 1970s
Scientists in the 1970s started to shift from the uncertain leanings in the 1960s to increasingly a prediction of future warming. A survey of the scientific literature from 1965 to 1979 found 7 articles predicting cooling and 44 predicting warming, with the warming articles also being cited much more often in subsequent scientific literature.[10] Several scientific panels from this time period concluded that more research was needed to determine whether warming or cooling was likely, indicating that the trend in the scientific literature had not yet Mean temperature anomalies during the period become a consensus.[11] [12] On the other hand, the 1979 World 1965 to 1975 with respect to the average temperatures from 1937 to 1946. This dataset was Climate Conference of the World Meteorological Organization not available at the time. concluded "it appears plausible that an increased amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can contribute to a gradual warming of the lower atmosphere, especially at higher latitudes....It is possible that some effects on a regional and global scale may be detectable before the end of this century and become significant before the middle of the next century."[13] In July of 1979 the United States National Research Council published a report, [14] concluding (in part): When it is assumed that the CO2 content of the atmosphere is doubled and statistical thermal equilibrium is achieved, the more realistic of the modeling efforts predict a global surface warming of between 2°C and 3.5°C, with greater increases at high latitudes. … … we have tried but have been unable to find any overlooked or underestimated physical effects that could reduce the currently estimated global warmings due to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 to negligible proportions or reverse them altogether. … The mainstream news media at the time did not reflect scientific opinion. In 1975, Newsweek magazine published a story that warned of "ominous signs that the Earth's weather patterns have begun to change," and reported "a drop of half a degree [Fahrenheit] in average ground temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere between 1945 and 1968."[15] The article continued by stating that evidence of global cooling was so strong that meteorologists were having "a

History of climate change science hard time keeping up with it."[15] On October 23, 2006, Newsweek issued an update stating that it had been "spectacularly wrong about the near-term future".[16]

215

Climate change scientific consensus begins development, 1980-1988
By the early 1980s, the slight cooling trend from 1945-1975 had stopped. Aerosol pollution had decreased in many areas due to environmental legislation and changes in fuel use, and it became clear that the cooling effect from aerosols was not going to increase substantially while carbon dioxide levels were progressively increasing. In 1985 a joint UNEP/WMO/ICSU Conference on the "Assessment of the Role of Carbon Dioxide and Other Greenhouse Gases in Climate Variations and Associated Impacts" assessed the role of carbon dioxide and aerosols in the atmosphere, and concluded that greenhouse gases "are expected" to cause significant warming in the next century and that some warming is inevitable.[17] In June 1988, James E. Hansen made one of the first assessments that human-caused warming had already measurably affected global climate.[18]

James Hansen during his 1988 testimony to Congress, which alerted the public to the dangers of global warming.

Modern period: 1988 to present
IPCC Assessment reports:

First (1990) 1992 sup. Second (1995) Third (2001) Fourth (2007) Fifth (2014) UNFCCC | WMO | UNEP

Both the UNEP and WMO had followed up on the 1985 Conference with additional meetings. In 1988 the WMO established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change with the support of the UNEP. The IPCC continues its work through the present day, and issues a series of Assessment Reports and supplemental reports that describe the state of scientific understanding at the time each report is prepared. Scientific developments during this period are discussed in the articles for each Assessment Report.

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Discovery of other climate changing factors
Methane: In 1859, John Tyndall determined that coal gas, a mix of methane and other gases, strongly absorbed infrared radiation. Methane was subsequently detected in the atmosphere in 1948, and in the 1980s scientists realized that human emissions were having a substantial impact.[19] Milankovitch cycles: Beginning in 1864, Scottish geologist James Croll proposed that changes in earth's orbit could trigger cycles of ice ages by changing the total amount of winter sunlight in the high latitudes. His ideas were widely discussed but not accepted. Serbian geophysicist Milutin Milanković developed these concepts in more detail in 1941 with the publication of Kanon der Erdbestrahlung und seine Anwendung auf das Eiszeitenproblem (Canon of Insolation of the Earth and Its Application to the Problem of the Ice Ages). Milanković's ideas became the consensus position in the 1970s, when ocean sediment dating matched the prediction of 100,000 year ice-age cycles. Chlorofluorocarbon: In 1973, British scientist James Lovelock speculated that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) could have a global warming effect. In 1975, V. Ramanathan found that a CFC molecule could be 10,000 times more effective in absorbing infrared radiation than a carbon dioxide molecule, making CFCs potentially important despite their very low concentrations in the atmosphere. While most early work on CFCs focused on their role in ozone depletion, by 1985 scientists had concluded that CFCs together with methane and other trace gases could have nearly as important a climate effect as increases in CO2.[19]

Published works discussing the history of climate change science
Historian Spencer Weart wrote The Discovery of Global Warming that summarized the history of climate change science, and provided an extensive supplementary website at the American Institute of Physics.[20] The IPCC published a review of the later period of climate science in December 2004, "16 Years of Scientific Assessment in Support of the Climate Convention".[21] The American Meteorological Society published "The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Consensus" that focuses on the middle period in climate science.[10] The Long Thaw by David Archer is primarily about current understanding of climate science but also includes information about the science's history.[7] Keeping Your Cool - Canada in a Warming World by Andrew Weaver addresses many questions about climate science including extensive discussion of its history.

References
[1] Young, Davis A. (1995). The biblical Flood: a case study of the Church's response to extrabiblical evidence (http:/ / www. bringyou. to/ apologetics/ p82. htm). Grand Rapids, Mich: Eerdmans. ISBN 0-8028-0719-4. . Retrieved 2008-09-16. [2] Holli Riebeek (28 June 2005). "Paleoclimatology" (http:/ / earthobservatory. nasa. gov/ Features/ Paleoclimatology/ paleoclimatology_intro. php). NASA. . Retrieved 01 July 2009. [3] Imbrie, J. and K. P. Imbrie, 1979: Ice Ages, Enslow Publishers: Hillside, New Jersey. [4] E.P. Evans: The Authorship of the Glacial Theory, North American review. / Volume 145, Issue 368, July 1887 (http:/ / rs6. loc. gov/ cgi-bin/ query/ r?ammem/ ncps:@field(DOCID+ @lit(ABQ7578-0145-13))::|The). Accessed on February 25, 2008. [5] William Connolley. "Translation by W M Connolley of: Fourier 1827: MEMOIRE sur les temperatures du globe terrestre et des espaces planetaires" (http:/ / www. wmconnolley. org. uk/ sci/ fourier_1827/ fourier_1827. html). . Retrieved 18 July 2009. [6] John Tyndall (1872) "Contributions to molecular physics in the domain of radiant heat" (http:/ / ia341003. us. archive. org/ 0/ items/ contributionsto01tyndgoog/ contributionsto01tyndgoog. djvu)DjVu [7] David Archer (2009). The Long Thaw: How Humans Are Changing the Next 100,000 Years of Earth's Climate. Princeton University Press. p. 19. ISBN 9780691136547. [8] Spencer Weart (2003). "The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect" (http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ co2. htm). The Discovery of Global Warming. . [9] Paul R. Ehrlich (1968). The Population Bomb. p. 52. [10] Peterson, T.C., W.M. Connolley, and J. Fleck (2008). "The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus". Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 89: 1325–1337. doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1.

History of climate change science
[11] Science and the Challenges Ahead. Report of the National Science Board (http:/ / www. archive. org/ details/ sciencechallenge00nati). . [12] W M Connolley. "The 1975 US National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council Report" (http:/ / www. wmconnolley. org. uk/ sci/ iceage/ nas-1975. html). . Retrieved 28 June 2009. [13] "Declaration of the World Climate Conference" (http:/ / www. dgvn. de/ fileadmin/ user_upload/ DOKUMENTE/ WCC-3/ Declaration_WCC1. pdf). World Meteorological Organization. . Retrieved 28 June 2009. [14] Report of an Ad Hoc Study Group on Carbon Dioxide and Climate, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, July 23-27, 1979, to the Climate Research Board, Assembly of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, National Research Council (1979). Carbon Dioxide and Climate:A Scientific Assessment (http:/ / books. nap. edu/ catalog. php?record_id=12181). Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press. ISBN 0309119103. . [15] Peter Gwynne (1975). "The Cooling World" (http:/ / www. denisdutton. com/ newsweek_coolingworld. pdf) (PDF). . [16] Jerry Adler (23 October 2006). "Climate Change: Prediction Perils" (http:/ / www. newsweek. com/ id/ 72481). Newsweek. . [17] World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) (1986). "Report of the International Conference on the assessment of the role of carbon dioxide and of other greenhouse gases in climate variations and associated impacts" (http:/ / www. icsu-scope. org/ downloadpubs/ scope29/ statement. html). Villach, Austria. . Retrieved 28 June 2009. [18] "Statement of Dr. James Hansen, Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies" (http:/ / image. guardian. co. uk/ sys-files/ Environment/ documents/ 2008/ 06/ 23/ ClimateChangeHearing1988. pdf). The Guardian (London). . Retrieved 28 June 2009. [19] Spencer Weart (2003). "Other Greenhouse Gases" (http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ othergas. htm). The Discovery of Global Warming. . [20] Spencer Weart (2003). "The Discovery of Global Warming" (http:/ / www. aip. org/ history/ climate/ ). American Institute of Physics. . [21] "16 Years of Scientific Assessment in Support of the Climate Convention" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ 10th-anniversary/ anniversary-brochure. pdf). 2004. . Retrieved 28 June 2008.

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External links
• Joseph Fourier's 1827 article, Memoire sur les temperatures du globe terrestre et des espaces planetaires (http:// www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/fourier_1827/fourier_1827.html), in French and English, with annotations by William Connolley • Svante Arrhenius' April 1896 article, On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground (http://www.globalwarmingart.com/images/1/18/Arrhenius.pdf) • How Was the Greenhouse Effect Discovered? (http://pastandfutureclimates.blogspot.com/2009/02/ how-was-greenhouse-effect-discovered.html)

Scientific opinion on climate change

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Scientific opinion on climate change
Scientific opinion on climate change is given by synthesis reports, scientific bodies of national or international standing, and surveys of opinion among climate scientists. Individual scientists, universities, and laboratories contribute to the overall scientific opinion via their peer reviewed publications, and the areas of collective agreement and relative certainty are summarised in these high level reports and surveys. Self-selected lists of individuals' opinions, such as petitions, are not normally considered to be part of the scientific process. National and international science academies and scientific societies have assessed the current scientific opinion, in particular on recent global warming. These assessments have largely followed or endorsed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) position of January 2001 which states: An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system... There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.[1] No scientific body of national or international standing has maintained a dissenting opinion; the last was the American Association of Petroleum Geologists, which in 2007 updated its 1999 statement rejecting the likelihood of human influence on recent climate with its current non-committal position.[2] [3] Some other organizations, primarily those focusing on geology, also hold non-committal positions.

Synthesis reports
Synthesis reports are assessments of scientific literature that compile the results of a range of stand-alone studies in order to achieve a broad level of understanding, or to describe the state of knowledge of a given subject.[4]

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007
In February 2007, the IPCC released a summary of the forthcoming Fourth Assessment Report. According to this summary, the Fourth Assessment Report finds that human actions are "very likely" the cause of global warming, meaning a 90% or greater probability. Global warming in this case is indicated by an increase of 0.75 degrees in average global temperatures over the last 100 years.[5] The New York Times reported that “the leading international network of climate scientists has concluded for the first time that global warming is 'unequivocal' and that human activity is the main driver, very likely' causing most of the rise in temperatures since 1950”.[6] A retired journalist for The New York Times, William K. Stevens wrote: “The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said the likelihood was 90 percent to 99 percent that emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, spewed from tailpipes and smokestacks, were the dominant cause of the observed warming of the last 50 years. In the panel’s parlance, this level of certainty is labeled 'very likely'. Only rarely does scientific odds-making provide a more definite answer than that, at least in this branch of science, and it describes the endpoint, so far, of a progression.”.[7] The Associated Press summarized the position on sea level rise: On sea levels, the report projects rises of 7-23 inches by the end of the century. That could be augmented by an additional 4-8 inches if recent polar ice sheet melt continues.[8]

Scientific opinion on climate change

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U.S. Global Change Research Program
formerly the Climate Change Science Program The U.S. Global Change Research Program reported in June, 2009[9] that: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. The report, which is about the effects that climate change is having in the United States, also says: Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7°F. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested.

Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
In 2004, the intergovernmental Arctic Council and the non-governmental International Arctic Science Committee released the synthesis report of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment:[10] Climate conditions in the past provide evidence that rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are associated with rising global temperatures. Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas), and secondarily the clearing of land, have increased the concentration of carbon dioxide, methane, and other heat-trapping ("greenhouse") gases in the atmosphere...There is international scientific consensus that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.[11]

Statements by organizations
This list of scientific bodies of national or international standing, that have issued formal statements of opinion, classifies those organizations according to whether they concur with the IPCC view, are non-committal, or dissent from it.

Statements by concurring organizations
Academies of Science Joint science academies' statements Since 2001, 32 national science academies have come together to issue joint declarations confirming anthropogenic global warming, and urging the nations of the world to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. The signatories of these statements have been the national science academies: • • • • • of Australia, of Belgium, of Brazil, of Cameroon, Royal Society of Canada,

• of the Caribbean, • of China,

Scientific opinion on climate change • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Institut de France, of Ghana, Leopoldina of Germany, of Indonesia, of Ireland, Accademia nazionale delle scienze of Italy, of India, of Japan, of Kenya, of Madagascar, of Malaysia, of Mexico, of Nigeria, Royal Society of New Zealand, Russian Academy of Sciences, of Senegal, of South Africa, of Sudan, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, of Tanzania, of Turkey, of Uganda, The Royal Society of the United Kingdom, of the United States, of Zambia, and of Zimbabwe.

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• 2001-Following the publication of the IPCC Third Assessment Report, seventeen national science academies issued a joint statement, entitled "The Science of Climate Change", explicitly acknowledging the IPCC position as representing the scientific consensus on climate change science. The statement, printed in an editorial in the journal Science on May 18, 2001,[12] was signed by the science academies of Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, the Caribbean, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Malaysia, New Zealand, Sweden, Turkey, and the United Kingdom.[13] • 2005-The national science academies of the G8 nations, plus Brazil, China and India, three of the largest emitters of greenhouse gases in the developing world, signed a statement on the global response to climate change. The statement stresses that the scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify nations taking prompt action,[14] and explicitly endorsed the IPCC consensus. The eleven signatories were the science academies of Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. • 2007-In preparation for the 33rd G8 summit, the national science academies of the G8+5 nations issued a declaration referencing the position of the 2005 joint science academies' statement, and acknowledging the confirmation of their previous conclusion by recent research. Following the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, the declaration states, "It is unequivocal that the climate is changing, and it is very likely that this is predominantly caused by the increasing human interference with the atmosphere. These changes will transform the environmental conditions on Earth unless counter-measures are taken."[15] The thirteen signatories were the national science academies of Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, India, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Scientific opinion on climate change • 2008-In preparation for the 34th G8 summit, the national science academies of the G8+5 nations issued a declaration reiterating the position of the 2005 joint science academies’ statement, and reaffirming “that climate change is happening and that anthropogenic warming is influencing many physical and biological systems.” Among other actions, the declaration urges all nations to “(t)ake appropriate economic and policy measures to accelerate transition to a low carbon society and to encourage and effect changes in individual and national behaviour.”[16] The thirteen signatories were the same national science academies that issued the 2007 joint statement. • 2009-In advance of the UNFCCC negotiations to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009, the national science academies of the G8+5 nations issued a joint statement declaring, "Climate change and sustainable energy supply are crucial challenges for the future of humanity. It is essential that world leaders agree on the emission reductions needed to combat negative consequences of anthropogenic climate change". The statement references the IPCC's Fourth Assessment of 2007, and asserts that "climate change is happening even faster than previously estimated; global CO2 emissions since 2000 have been higher than even the highest predictions, Arctic sea ice has been melting at rates much faster than predicted, and the rise in the sea level has become more rapid."[17] The thirteen signatories were the same national science academies that issued the 2007 and 2008 joint statements. InterAcademy Council As the representative of the world’s scientific and engineering academies,[18] [19] the InterAcademy Council (IAC) issued a report in 2007 titled Lighting the Way: Toward a Sustainable Energy Future. Current patterns of energy resources and energy usage are proving detrimental to the long-term welfare of humanity. The integrity of essential natural systems is already at risk from climate change caused by the atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases.[20] Concerted efforts should be mounted for improving energy efficiency and reducing the carbon intensity of the world economy.[21] European Academy of Sciences and Arts In 2007, the European Academy of Sciences and Arts issued a formal declaration on climate change titled Let's Be Honest: Human activity is most likely responsible for climate warming. Most of the climatic warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been caused by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Documented long-term climate changes include changes in Arctic temperatures and ice, widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns and extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones. The above development potentially has dramatic consequences for mankind’s future.[22] International Council of Academies of Engineering and Technological Sciences In 2007, the International Council of Academies of Engineering and Technological Sciences (CAETS) issued a Statement on Environment and Sustainable Growth:[23] As reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), most of the observed global warming since the mid-20th century is very likely due to human-produced emission of greenhouse gases and this warming will continue unabated if present anthropogenic emissions continue or, worse, expand without control. CAETS, therefore, endorses the many recent calls to decrease and control greenhouse gas emissions to an acceptable level as quickly as possible.

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Scientific opinion on climate change Network of African Science Academies In 2007, the Network of African Science Academies submitted a joint “statement on sustainability, energy efficiency, and climate change” to the leaders meeting at the G8 Summit in Heiligendamm, Germany: A consensus, based on current evidence, now exists within the global scientific community that human activities are the main source of climate change and that the burning of fossil fuels is largely responsible for driving this change. The IPCC should be congratulated for the contribution it has made to public understanding of the nexus that exists between energy, climate and sustainability.[24] The thirteen signatories were the science academies of Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe, as well as the African Academy of Sciences. Royal Society of New Zealand Having signed onto the first joint science academies' statement in 2001, the Royal Society of New Zealand released a separate statement in 2008 in order to clear up "the controversy over climate change and its causes, and possible confusion among the public": The globe is warming because of increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Measurements show that greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere are well above levels seen for many thousands of years. Further global climate changes are predicted, with impacts expected to become more costly as time progresses. Reducing future impacts of climate change will require substantial reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.[25] Royal Society of the United Kingdom The Royal Society of the United Kingdom has not changed its concurring stance. According to the Telegraph, "The most prestigious group of scientists in the country was forced to act after forty-three fellows complained that 'uncertainty in the debate' over man made global warming were not being communicated to the public."[26] In May 2010, it announced that it "is presently drafting a new public facing document on climate change, to provide an updated status report on the science in an easily accessible form, also addressing the levels of certainty of key components."[27] The society says that it is three years since the last such document was published and that, after an extensive process of debate and review,[28] [29] the new document was printed in September 2010. It summarises the current scientific evidence and highlights the areas where the science is well established, where there is still some debate, and where substantial uncertainties remain. The society has stated that "this is not the same as saying that the climate science itself is in error – no Fellows have expressed such a view to the RS".[27] Polish Academy of Sciences In December 2007, the General Assembly of the Polish Academy of Sciences (PAN) issued a statement endorsing the IPCC conclusions, and states: it is the duty of Polish science and the national government to, in a thoughtful, organized and active manner, become involved in realisation of these ideas. Problems of global warming, climate change, and their various negative impacts on human life and on the functioning of entire societies are one of the most dramatic challenges of modern times. PAS General Assembly calls on the national scientific communities and the national government to actively support Polish participation in this important endeavor.[30]

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Scientific opinion on climate change National Research Council (US) In 2001, the Committee on the Science of Climate Change of the National Research Council published Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions.[31] This report explicitly endorses the IPCC view of attribution of recent climate change as representing the view of the scientific community: The changes observed over the last several decades are likely mostly due to human activities, but we cannot rule out that some significant part of these changes is also a reflection of natural variability. Human-induced warming and associated sea level rises are expected to continue through the 21st century... The IPCC's conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issue.[31] General science American Association for the Advancement of Science As the world's largest general scientific society, the American Association for the Advancement of Science adopted an official statement on climate change in 2006: The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring now, and it is a growing threat to society....The pace of change and the evidence of harm have increased markedly over the last five years. The time to control greenhouse gas emissions is now.[32] American Chemical Society The American Chemical Society stated: Careful and comprehensive scientific assessments have clearly demonstrated that the Earth’s climate system is changing rapidly in response to growing atmospheric burdens of greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosol particles (IPCC, 2007). There is very little room for doubt that observed climate trends are due to human activities. The threats are serious and action is urgently needed to mitigate the risks of climate change. The reality of global warming, its current serious and potentially disastrous impacts on Earth system properties, and the key role emissions from human activities play in driving these phenomena have been recognized by earlier versions of this ACS policy statement (ACS, 2004), by other major scientific societies, including the American Geophysical Union (AGU, 2003), the American Meteorological Society (AMS, 2007) and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS, 2007), and by the U. S. National Academies and ten other leading national academies of science (NA, 2005).[33] American Institute of Physics The Governing Board of the American Institute of Physics endorsed the AGU statement on human-induced climate change:[34] The Governing Board of the American Institute of Physics has endorsed a position statement on climate change adopted by the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Council in December 2003. American Physical Society In November 2007, the American Physical Society (APS) adopted an official statement on climate change: Emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are changing the atmosphere in ways that affect the Earth's climate. Greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide as well as methane, nitrous oxide and other gases. They are emitted from fossil fuel combustion and a range of industrial and agricultural processes. The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth’s physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely

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Scientific opinion on climate change to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now. Because the complexity of the climate makes accurate prediction difficult, the APS urges an enhanced effort to understand the effects of human activity on the Earth’s climate, and to provide the technological options for meeting the climate challenge in the near and longer terms. The APS also urges governments, universities, national laboratories and its membership to support policies and actions that will reduce the emission of greenhouse gases.[35] Australian Institute of Physics In 2005, the Australian Institute of Physics (AIP)[36] issued a science policy document in which they stated: Policy: The AIP supports a reduction of the green house gas emissions that are leading to increased global temperatures, and encourages research that works towards this goal. Reason: Research in Australia and overseas shows that an increase in global temperature will adversely affect the Earth’s climate patterns. The melting of the polar ice caps, combined with thermal expansion, will lead to rises in sea levels that may impact adversely on our coastal cities. The impact of these changes on biodiversity will fundamentally change the ecology of Earth.[37] European Physical Society In 2007, the European Physical Society issued a position paper regarding energy: The emission of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, among which carbon dioxide is the main contributor, has amplified the natural greenhouse effect and led to global warming. The main contribution stems from burning fossil fuels. A further increase will have decisive effects on life on earth. An energy cycle with the lowest possible CO2 emission is called for wherever possible to combat climate change.[38] European Science Foundation In 2007, the European Science Foundation issued a Position Paper on climate change: There is now convincing evidence that since the industrial revolution, human activities, resulting in increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases have become a major agent of climate change. These greenhouse gases affect the global climate by retaining heat in the troposphere, thus raising the average temperature of the planet and altering global atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns. While on-going national and international actions to curtail and reduce greenhouse gas emissions are essential, the levels of greenhouse gases currently in the atmosphere, and their impact, are likely to persist for several decades. On-going and increased efforts to mitigate climate change through reduction in greenhouse gases are therefore crucial.[39] Federation of Australian Scientific and Technological Societies In 2008, the Federation of Australian Scientific and Technological Societies (FASTS) issued a policy statement on climate change: Global climate change is real and measurable. Since the start of the 20th century, the global mean surface temperature of the Earth has increased by more than 0.7°C and the rate of warming has been largest in the last 30 years. Key vulnerabilities arising from climate change include water resources, food supply, health, coastal settlements, biodiversity and some key ecosystems such as coral reefs and alpine regions. As the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases increases, impacts become more severe and widespread. To reduce the global net economic, environmental and social losses in the face of these impacts, the policy objective must remain squarely focused on returning greenhouse gas concentrations to near pre-industrial levels through the reduction of emissions.

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Scientific opinion on climate change The spatial and temporal fingerprint of warming can be traced to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, which are a direct result of burning fossil fuels, broad-scale deforestation and other human activity.[40] Earth sciences American Geophysical Union The American Geophysical Union (AGU) statement,[41] adopted by the society in 2003 and revised in 2007, affirms that rising levels of greenhouse gases have caused and will continue to cause the global surface temperature to be warmer: The Earth's climate is now clearly out of balance and is warming. Many components of the climate system—including the temperatures of the atmosphere, land and ocean, the extent of sea ice and mountain glaciers, the sea level, the distribution of precipitation, and the length of seasons—are now changing at rates and in patterns that are not natural and are best explained by the increased atmospheric abundances of greenhouse gases and aerosols generated by human activity during the 20th century. Global average surface temperatures increased on average by about 0.6°C over the period 1956–2006. As of 2006, eleven of the previous twelve years were warmer than any others since 1850. The observed rapid retreat of Arctic sea ice is expected to continue and lead to the disappearance of summertime ice within this century. Evidence from most oceans and all continents except Antarctica shows warming attributable to human activities. Recent changes in many physical and biological systems are linked with this regional climate change. A sustained research effort, involving many AGU members and summarized in the 2007 assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, continues to improve our scientific understanding of the climate. European Federation of Geologists In 2008, the European Federation of Geologists[42] (EFG) issued the position paper Carbon Capture and geological Storage : The EFG recognizes the work of the IPCC and other organizations, and subscribes to the major findings that climate change is happening, is predominantly caused by anthropogenic emissions of CO2, and poses a significant threat to human civilization. It is clear that major efforts are necessary to quickly and strongly reduce CO2 emissions. The EFG strongly advocates renewable and sustainable energy production, including geothermal energy, as well as the need for increasing energy efficiency. CCS [Carbon Capture and geological Storage] should also be regarded as a bridging technology, facilitating the move towards a carbon free economy.[43] European Geosciences Union In 2005, the Divisions of Atmospheric and Climate Sciences of the European Geosciences Union (EGU) issued a position statement in support of the joint science academies’ statement on global response to climate change. The statement refers to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), as "the main representative of the global scientific community", and asserts that the IPCC represents the state-of-the-art of climate science supported by the major science academies around the world and by the vast majority of science researchers and investigators as documented by the peer-reviewed scientific literature.[44] Additionally, in 2008, the EGU issued a position statement on ocean acidification which states, "Ocean acidification is already occurring today and will continue to intensify, closely tracking atmospheric CO2 increase. Given the potential threat to marine ecosystems and its ensuing impact on human society and economy, especially as it acts in

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Scientific opinion on climate change conjunction with anthropogenic global warming, there is an urgent need for immediate action." The statement then advocates for strategies "to limit future release of CO2 to the atmosphere and/or enhance removal of excess CO2 from the atmosphere."[45] Geological Society of America In 2006, the Geological Society of America adopted a position statement on global climate change. It amended this position on April 20, 2010 with more explicit comments on need for CO2 reduction. Decades of scientific research have shown that climate can change from both natural and anthropogenic causes. The Geological Society of America (GSA) concurs with assessments by the National Academies of Science (2005), the National Research Council (2006), and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) that global climate has warmed and that human activities (mainly greenhouse‐gas emissions) account for most of the warming since the middle 1900s. If current trends continue, the projected increase in global temperature by the end of the twentyfirst century will result in large impacts on humans and other species. Addressing the challenges posed by climate change will require a combination of adaptation to the changes that are likely to occur and global reductions of CO2 emissions from anthropogenic sources.[46] Geological Society of Australia In July 2009, the Geological Society of Australia issued the position statement Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change: Human activities have increasing impact on Earth’s environments. Of particular concern are the well-documented loading of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere, which has been linked unequivocally to burning of fossil fuels, and the corresponding increase in average global temperature. Risks associated with these large-scale perturbations of the Earth’s fundamental life-support systems include rising sea level, harmful shifts in the acid balance of the oceans and long-term changes in local and regional climate and extreme weather events. GSA therefore recommends…strong action be taken at all levels, including government, industry, and individuals to substantially reduce the current levels of greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the likely social and environmental effects of increasing atmospheric CO2.[47] Geological Society of London In November 2010, the Geological Society of London issued the position statement Climate change: evidence from the geological record: The last century has seen a rapidly growing global population and much more intensive use of resources, leading to greatly increased emissions of gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, from the burning of fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal), and from agriculture, cement production and deforestation. Evidence from the geological record is consistent with the physics that shows that adding large amounts of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere warms the world and may lead to: higher sea levels and flooding of low-lying coasts; greatly changed patterns of rainfall; increased acidity of the oceans; and decreased oxygen levels in seawater. There is now widespread concern that the Earth’s climate will warm further, not only because of the lingering effects of the added carbon already in the system, but also because of further additions as human population continues to grow. Life on Earth has survived large climate changes in the past, but extinctions and major redistribution of species have been associated with many of them. When the human population was small and nomadic, a rise in sea level of a few metres would have had very little effect on Homo sapiens. With the current and growing global population, much of which is concentrated in coastal cities, such a rise in sea level would have a drastic effect on our complex society, especially if the climate were to change as suddenly as it has at times in the past. Equally, it seems likely that as warming continues some areas may experience less

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Scientific opinion on climate change precipitation leading to drought. With both rising seas and increasing drought, pressure for human migration could result on a large scale.[48] International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics In July 2007, the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) adopted a resolution titled “The Urgency of Addressing Climate Change”. In it, the IUGG concurs with the “comprehensive and widely accepted and endorsed scientific assessments carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and regional and national bodies, which have firmly established, on the basis of scientific evidence, that human activities are the primary cause of recent climate change.” They state further that the “continuing reliance on combustion of fossil fuels as the world’s primary source of energy will lead to much higher atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gasses, which will, in turn, cause significant increases in surface temperature, sea level, ocean acidification, and their related consequences to the environment and society.”[49] National Association of Geoscience Teachers In July 2009, the National Association of Geoscience Teachers[50] (NAGT) adopted a position statement on climate change in which they assert that "Earth's climate is changing [and] "that present warming trends are largely the result of human activities": NAGT strongly supports and will work to promote education in the science of climate change, the causes and effects of current global warming, and the immediate need for policies and actions that reduce the emission of greenhouse gases.[51] Meteorology and oceanography American Meteorological Society The American Meteorological Society (AMS) statement adopted by their council in 2003 said: There is now clear evidence that the mean annual temperature at the Earth's surface, averaged over the entire globe, has been increasing in the past 200 years. There is also clear evidence that the abundance of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased over the same period. In the past decade, significant progress has been made toward a better understanding of the climate system and toward improved projections of long-term climate change... Human activities have become a major source of environmental change. Of great urgency are the climate consequences of the increasing atmospheric abundance of greenhouse gases... Because greenhouse gases continue to increase, we are, in effect, conducting a global climate experiment, neither planned nor controlled, the results of which may present unprecedented challenges to our wisdom and foresight as well as have significant impacts on our natural and societal systems.[52] Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society The Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society has issued a Statement on Climate Change, wherein they conclude: Global climate change and global warming are real and observable ... It is highly likely that those human activities that have increased the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been largely responsible for the observed warming since 1950. The warming associated with increases in greenhouse gases originating from human activity is called the enhanced greenhouse effect. The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased by more than 30% since the start of the industrial age and is higher now than at any time in at least the past 650,000 years. This increase is a direct result of burning fossil fuels, broad-scale deforestation and other human activity.”[53]

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Scientific opinion on climate change Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences In November 2005, the Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences (CFCAS) issued a letter to the Prime Minister of Canada stating that We concur with the climate science assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 ... We endorse the conclusions of the IPCC assessment that 'There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities'. ... There is increasingly unambiguous evidence of changing climate in Canada and around the world. There will be increasing impacts of climate change on Canada’s natural ecosystems and on our socio-economic activities. Advances in climate science since the 2001 IPCC Assessment have provided more evidence supporting the need for action and development of a strategy for adaptation to projected changes.[54] Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society In November 2009, a letter to the Canadian Parliament by The Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society states: Rigorous international research, including work carried out and supported by the Government of Canada, reveals that greenhouse gases resulting from human activities contribute to the warming of the atmosphere and the oceans and constitute a serious risk to the health and safety of our society, as well as having an impact on all life.[55] Royal Meteorological Society (UK) In February 2007, after the release of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report, the Royal Meteorological Society issued an endorsement of the report. In addition to referring to the IPCC as “world’s best climate scientists”, they stated that climate change is happening as “the result of emissions since industrialization and we have already set in motion the next 50 years of global warming – what we do from now on will determine how worse it will get.”[56] World Meteorological Organization In its Statement at the Twelfth Session of the Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change presented on November 15, 2006, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirms the need to “prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” The WMO concurs that “scientific assessments have increasingly reaffirmed that human activities are indeed changing the composition of the atmosphere, in particular through the burning of fossil fuels for energy production and transportation.” The WMO concurs that “the present atmospheric concentration of CO2 was never exceeded over the past 420,000 years;” and that the IPCC “assessments provide the most authoritative, up-to-date scientific advice.” [57] Paleoclimatology American Quaternary Association The American Quaternary Association (AMQUA) has stated Few credible Scientists now doubt that humans have influenced the documented rise of global temperatures since the Industrial Revolution,” citing “the growing body of evidence that warming of the atmosphere, especially over the past 50 years, is directly impacted by human activity.[58] International Union for Quaternary Research The statement on climate change issued by the International Union for Quaternary Research (INQUA) reiterates the conclusions of the IPCC, and urges all nations to take prompt action in line with the UNFCCC principles. Human activities are now causing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gasses - including carbon dioxide, methane, tropospheric ozone, and nitrous oxide - to rise well above pre-industrial levels….Increases

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Scientific opinion on climate change in greenhouse gasses are causing temperatures to rise…The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to justify nations taking prompt action….Minimizing the amount of this carbon dioxide reaching the atmosphere presents a huge challenge but must be a global priority.[59] Biology and life sciences American Association of Wildlife Veterinarians The American Association of Wildlife Veterinarians[60] (AAWV) has issued a position statement regarding "climate change, wildlife diseases, and wildlife health": There is widespread scientific agreement that the world’s climate is changing and that the weight of evidence demonstrates that anthropogenic factors have and will continue to contribute significantly to global warming and climate change. It is anticipated that continuing changes to the climate will have serious negative impacts on public, animal and ecosystem health due to extreme weather events, changing disease transmission dynamics, emerging and re-emerging diseases, and alterations to habitat and ecological systems that are essential to wildlife conservation. Furthermore, there is increasing recognition of the inter-relationships of human, domestic animal, wildlife, and ecosystem health as illustrated by the fact the majority of recent emerging diseases have a wildlife origin.[61] American Institute of Biological Sciences In October 2009, the leaders of 18 US scientific societies and organizations sent an open letter to the United States Senate reaffirming the scientific consensus that climate change is occurring and is primarily caused by human activities. The American Institute of Biological Sciences (AIBS) adopted this letter as their official position statement:[62] Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver.[63] The letter goes on to warn of predicted impacts on the United States such as sea level rise and increases in extreme weather events, water scarcity, heat waves, wildfires, and the disturbance of biological systems. It then advocates for a dramatic reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases.[64] American Society for Microbiology In 2003, the American Society for Microbiology issued a public policy report in which they recommend “reducing net anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the atmosphere” and “minimizing anthropogenic disturbances of” atmospheric gases:[65] Carbon dioxide concentrations were relatively stable for the past 10,000 years but then began to increase rapidly about 150 years ago…as a result of fossil fuel consumption and land use change.[66] Of course, changes in atmospheric composition are but one component of global change, which also includes disturbances in the physical and chemical conditions of the oceans and land surface. Although global change has been a natural process throughout Earth’s history, humans are responsible for substantially accelerating present-day changes. These changes may adversely affect human health and the biosphere on which we depend.[67] Outbreaks of a number of diseases, including Lyme disease, hantavirus infections, dengue fever, bubonic plague, and cholera, have been linked to climate change.[68]

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Scientific opinion on climate change Australian Coral Reef Society In 2006, the Australian Coral Reef Society [69] issued an official communique regarding the Great Barrier Reef and the "world-wide decline in coral reefs through processes such as overfishing, runoff of nutrients from the land, coral bleaching, global climate change, ocean acidification, pollution", etc.: There is almost total consensus among experts that the earth’s climate is changing as a result of the build-up of greenhouse gases. The IPCC (involving over 3,000 of the world’s experts) has come out with clear conclusions as to the reality of this phenomenon. One does not have to look further than the collective academy of scientists worldwide to see the string (of) statements on this worrying change to the earth’s atmosphere. There is broad scientific consensus that coral reefs are heavily affected by the activities of man and there are significant global influences that can make reefs more vulnerable such as global warming....It is highly likely that coral bleaching has been exacerbated by global warming.[70] Institute of Biology (UK) The UK's Institute of Biology states “there is scientific agreement that the rapid global warming that has occurred in recent years is mostly anthropogenic, ie due to human activity.” As a consequence of global warming, they warn that a “rise in sea levels due to melting of ice caps is expected to occur. Rises in temperature will have complex and frequently localised effects on weather, but an overall increase in extreme weather conditions and changes in precipitation patterns are probable, resulting in flooding and drought. The spread of tropical diseases is also expected.” Subsequently, the Institute of Biology advocates policies to reduce “greenhouse gas emissions, as we feel that the consequences of climate change are likely to be severe.”[71] Society of American Foresters In 2008, the Society of American Foresters (SAF) issued two position statements pertaining to climate change in which they cite the IPCC and the UNFCCC: Forests are shaped by climate....Changes in temperature and precipitation regimes therefore have the potential to dramatically affect forests nationwide. There is growing evidence that our climate is changing. The changes in temperature have been associated with increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and other GHGs in the atmosphere.[72] Forests play a significant role in offsetting CO2 emissions, the primary anthropogenic GHG.[73] The Wildlife Society (international) The Wildlife Society has issued a position statement titled Global Climate Change and Wildlife:[74] Scientists throughout the world have concluded that climate research conducted in the past two decades definitively shows that rapid worldwide climate change occurred in the 20th century, and will likely continue to occur for decades to come. Although climates have varied dramatically since the earth was formed, few scientists question the role of humans in exacerbating recent climate change through the emission of greenhouse gases. The critical issue is no longer “if” climate change is occurring, but rather how to address its effects on wildlife and wildlife habitats. The statement goes on to assert that “evidence is accumulating that wildlife and wildlife habitats have been and will continue to be significantly affected by ongoing large-scale rapid climate change.” The statement concludes with a call for “reduction in anthropogenic (human-caused) sources of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions contributing to global climate change and the conservation of CO2- consuming photosynthesizers (i.e., plants).”

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Scientific opinion on climate change Human health American Academy of Pediatrics In 2007, the American Academy of Pediatrics issued the policy statement Global Climate Change and Children's Health: There is broad scientific consensus that Earth's climate is warming rapidly and at an accelerating rate. Human activities, primarily the burning of fossil fuels, are very likely (>90% probability) to be the main cause of this warming. Climate-sensitive changes in ecosystems are already being observed, and fundamental, potentially irreversible, ecological changes may occur in the coming decades. Conservative environmental estimates of the impact of climate changes that are already in process indicate that they will result in numerous health effects to children. Anticipated direct health consequences of climate change include injury and death from extreme weather events and natural disasters, increases in climate-sensitive infectious diseases, increases in air pollution–related illness, and more heat-related, potentially fatal, illness. Within all of these categories, children have increased vulnerability compared with other groups.[75] American College of Preventive Medicine In 2006, the American College of Preventive Medicine issued a policy statement on “Abrupt Climate Change and Public Health Implications”: The American College of Preventive Medicine (ACPM) accept the position that global warming and climate change is occurring, that there is potential for abrupt climate change, and that human practices that increase greenhouse gases exacerbate the problem, and that the public health consequences may be severe.[76] American Medical Association In 2008, the American Medical Association issued a policy statement on global climate change declaring that they: Support the findings of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, which states that the Earth is undergoing adverse global climate change and that these changes will negatively affect public health. Support educating the medical community on the potential adverse public health effects of global climate change, including topics such as population displacement, flooding, infectious and vector-borne diseases, and healthy water supplies.[77] American Public Health Association In 2007, the American Public Health Association issued a policy statement titled ‘’Addressing the Urgent Threat of Global Climate Change to Public Health and the Environment’’: The long-term threat of global climate change to global health is extremely serious and the fourth IPCC report and other scientific literature demonstrate convincingly that anthropogenic GHG emissions are primarily responsible for this threat….US policy makers should immediately take necessary steps to reduce US emissions of GHGs, including carbon dioxide, to avert dangerous climate change.[78]

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Scientific opinion on climate change Australian Medical Association In 2004, the Australian Medical Association issued the position statement Climate Change and Human Health in which they recommend policies "to mitigate the possible consequential health effects of climate change through improved energy efficiency, clean energy production and other emission reduction steps."[79] This statement was revised again in 2008: The world’s climate – our life-support system – is being altered in ways that are likely to pose significant direct and indirect challenges to health. While ‘climate change’ can be due to natural forces or human activity, there is now substantial evidence to indicate that human activity – and specifically increased greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions – is a key factor in the pace and extent of global temperature increases. Health impacts of climate change include the direct impacts of extreme events such as storms, floods, heatwaves and fires and the indirect effects of longer-term changes, such as drought, changes to the food and water supply, resource conflicts and population shifts. Increases in average temperatures mean that alterations in the geographic range and seasonality of certain infections and diseases (including vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, Ross River virus and food-borne infections such as Salmonellosis) may be among the first detectable impacts of climate change on human health. Human health is ultimately dependent on the health of the planet and its ecosystem. The AMA believes that measures which mitigate climate change will also benefit public health. Reducing GHGs should therefore be seen as a public health priority.[80] World Federation of Public Health Associations In 2001, the World Federation of Public Health Associations[81] issued a policy resolution on global climate change: Noting the conclusions of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other climatologists that anthropogenic greenhouse gases, which contribute to global climate change, have substantially increased in atmospheric concentration beyond natural processes and have increased by 28 percent since the industrial revolution….Realizing that subsequent health effects from such perturbations in the climate system would likely include an increase in: heat-related mortality and morbidity; vector-borne infectious diseases,… water-borne diseases…(and) malnutrition from threatened agriculture….the World Federation of Public Health Associations…recommends precautionary primary preventive measures to avert climate change, including reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and preservation of greenhouse gas sinks through appropriate energy and land use policies, in view of the scale of potential health impacts....[82] World Health Organization In 2008, the United Nations' World Health Organization issued their report Protecting health from climate change: There is now widespread agreement that the earth is warming, due to emissions of greenhouse gases caused by human activity. It is also clear that current trends in energy use, development, and population growth will lead to continuing – and more severe – climate change. The changing climate will inevitably affect the basic requirements for maintaining health: clean air and water, sufficient food and adequate shelter. Each year, about 800,000 people die from causes attributable to urban air pollution, 1.8 million from diarrhoea resulting from lack of access to clean water supply, sanitation, and poor hygiene, 3.5 million from malnutrition and approximately 60,000 in natural disasters. A warmer and more variable climate threatens to lead to higher levels of some air pollutants, increase transmission of diseases through unclean water and through contaminated food, to compromise agricultural production in some of the least developed countries, and increase the hazards of extreme weather.[83]

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Scientific opinion on climate change Miscellaneous American Astronomical Society The American Astronomical Society has endorsed the AGU statement:[84] In endorsing the "Human Impacts on Climate" statement [issued by the American Geophysical Union], the AAS recognizes the collective expertise of the AGU in scientific subfields central to assessing and understanding global change, and acknowledges the strength of agreement among our AGU colleagues that the global climate is changing and human activities are contributing to that change. American Statistical Association On November 30, 2007, the American Statistical Association Board of Directors adopted a statement on climate change: The ASA endorses the IPCC conclusions.... Over the course of four assessment reports, a small number of statisticians have served as authors or reviewers. Although this involvement is encouraging, it does not represent the full range of statistical expertise available. ASA recommends that more statisticians should become part of the IPCC process. Such participation would be mutually beneficial to the assessment of climate change and its impacts and also to the statistical community.[85] Engineers Australia (The Institution of Engineers Australia) "Engineers Australia believes that Australia must act swiftly and proactively in line with global expectations to address climate change as an economic, social and environmental risk... We believe that addressing the costs of atmospheric emissions will lead to increasing our competitive advantage by minimising risks and creating new economic opportunities. Engineers Australia believes the Australian Government should ratify the Kyoto Protocol."[86] International Association for Great Lakes Research In February 2009, the International Association for Great Lakes Research[87] (IAGLR) issued a Fact Sheet on climate change: While the Earth’s climate has changed many times during the planet’s history because of natural factors, including volcanic eruptions and changes in the Earth’s orbit, never before have we observed the present rapid rise in temperature and carbon dioxide (CO2). Human activities resulting from the industrial revolution have changed the chemical composition of the atmosphere....Deforestation is now the second largest contributor to global warming, after the burning of fossil fuels. These human activities have significantly increased the concentration of “greenhouse gases” in the atmosphere. As the Earth’s climate warms, we are seeing many changes: stronger, more destructive hurricanes; heavier rainfall; more disastrous flooding; more areas of the world experiencing severe drought; and more heat waves.[88]

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Scientific opinion on climate change Institute of Professional Engineers New Zealand In October 2001, the Institute of Professional Engineers New Zealand[89] (IPENZ) published an Informatory Note entitled "Climate Change and the greenhouse effect": Human activities have increased the concentration of these atmospheric greenhouse gases, and although the changes are relatively small, the equilibrium maintained by the atmosphere is delicate, and so the effect of these changes is significant. The world’s most important greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide, a by-product of the burning of fossil fuels. Since the time of the Industrial Revolution about 200 years ago, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased from about 280 parts per million to 370 parts per million, an increase of around 30%. On the basis of available data, climate scientists are now projecting an average global temperature rise over this century of 2.0 to 4.5°C. This compared with 0.6°C over the previous century – about a 500% increase... This could lead to changing, and for all emissions scenarios more unpredictable, weather patterns around the world, less frost days, more extreme events (droughts and storm or flood disasters), and warmer sea temperatures and melting glaciers causing sea levels to rise. ... Professional engineers commonly deal with risk, and frequently have to make judgments based on incomplete data. The available evidence suggests very strongly that human activities have already begun to make significant changes to the earth’s climate, and that the longterm risk of delaying action is greater than the cost of avoiding/minimising the risk.[90]

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Non-committal statements
American Association of Petroleum Geologists As of June 2007, the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) Position Statement on climate change stated: the AAPG membership is divided on the degree of influence that anthropogenic CO2 has on recent and potential global temperature increases ... Certain climate simulation models predict that the warming trend will continue, as reported through NAS, AGU, AAAS and AMS. AAPG respects these scientific opinions but wants to add that the current climate warming projections could fall within well-documented natural variations in past climate and observed temperature data. These data do not necessarily support the maximum case scenarios forecast in some models.[91] Prior to the adoption of this statement, the AAPG was the only major scientific organization that rejected the finding of significant human influence on recent climate, according to a statement by the Council of the American Quaternary Association.[2] Explaining the plan for a revision, AAPG president Lee Billingsly wrote in March 2007: Members have threatened to not renew their memberships... if AAPG does not alter its position on global climate change.... And I have been told of members who already have resigned in previous years because of our current global climate change position.... The current policy statement is not supported by a significant number of our members and prospective members.[92] AAPG President John Lorenz announced the sunsetting of AAPG’s Global Climate Change Committee in January 2010. The AAPG Executive Committee determined: Climate change is peripheral at best to our science…. AAPG does not have credibility in that field…….and as a group we have no particular knowledge of global atmospheric geophysics.[93]

Scientific opinion on climate change American Association of State Climatologists The Association has no current statement. The previous statement, discussed below, became inoperative in 2008.[94] The 2001 statement from the American Association of State Climatologists noted the difficulties with predicting impacts due to climate change, while acknowledging that human activities are having an effect on climate: Climate prediction is difficult because it involves complex, nonlinear interactions among all components of the earth’s environmental system.... The AASC recognizes that human activities have an influence on the climate system. Such activities, however, are not limited to greenhouse gas forcing and include changing land use and sulfate emissions, which further complicates the issue of climate prediction. Furthermore, climate predictions have not demonstrated skill in projecting future variability and changes in such important climate conditions as growing season, drought, flood-producing rainfall, heat waves, tropical cyclones and winter storms. These are the type of events that have a more significant impact on society than annual average global temperature trends. Policy responses to climate variability and change should be flexible and sensible – The difficulty of prediction and the impossibility of verification of predictions decades into the future are important factors that allow for competing views of the long-term climate future. Therefore, the AASC recommends that policies related to long-term climate not be based on particular predictions, but instead should focus on policy alternatives that make sense for a wide range of plausible climatic conditions regardless of future climate... Finally, ongoing political debate about global energy policy should not stand in the way of common sense action to reduce societal and environmental vulnerabilities to climate variability and change. Considerable potential exists to improve policies related to climate.[95] American Geological Institute In 1999, the American Geological Institute (AGI) issued the position statement ‘’Global Climate Change’’: The American Geological Institute (AGI) strongly supports education concerning the scientific evidence of past climate change, the potential for future climate change due to the current building of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, and the policy options available. Understanding the interactions between the solid Earth, the oceans, the biosphere, and the atmosphere both in the present and over time is critical for accurately analyzing and predicting global climate change due to natural processes and possible human influences.[96] American Institute of Professional Geologists In 2009, the American Institute of Professional Geologists[97] (AIPG) sent a statement to President Barack Obama and other US government officials: The geological professionals in AIPG recognize that climate change is occurring and has the potential to yield catastrophic impacts if humanity is not prepared to address those impacts. It is also recognized that climate change will occur regardless of the cause. The sooner a defensible scientific understanding can be developed, the better equipped humanity will be to develop economically viable and technically effective methods to support the needs of society.[98] Concerned that the original statement issued in March 2009 was too ambiguous, AIPG’s National Executive Committee approved a revised position statement issued in January 2010: The geological professionals in AIPG recognize that climate change is occurring regardless of cause. AIPG supports continued research into all forces driving climate change.[99] In August 2009, the Ohio Section of AIPG submitted a position statement to Senators Brown and Voinovich opposing H.R. 2454, the Markey-Waxman climate bill. The statement professed that “there is no scientific evidence supporting…. the premise that human production of CO2 gas is responsible for ‘global warming’….” The statement went on to challenge the findings of the IPCC and made numerous references to articles published by the Heartland

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Scientific opinion on climate change Institute.[100] In March 2010, AIPG’s Executive Director issued a statement regarding polarization of opinions on climate change within the membership and announced that the AIPG Executive had made a decision to cease publication of articles and opinion pieces concerning climate change in AIPG’s news journal, The Professional Geologist.[101] The Executive Director noted that “the question of anthropogenicity of climate change is contentious.”[102] Canadian Federation of Earth Sciences The science of global climate change is still evolving and our understanding of this vital Earth system is not as developed as is the case for other Earth systems such as plate tectonics. What is known with certainty is that regardless of the causes, our global climate will continue to change for the foreseeable future... The level of CO2 in our atmosphere is now greater than at any time in the past 500,000 years; there will be consequences for our global climate and natural systems as a result.[103]

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Statements by dissenting organizations
Since 2007, when the American Association of Petroleum Geologists released a revised statement,[104] no scientific body of national or international standing rejects the findings of human-induced effects on global warming.[2] [3] Statements by individual scientists opposing the mainstream assessment of global warming do include opinions that the earth has not warmed, or that warming is attributable to causes other than increasing greenhouse gases.

Surveys of scientists and scientific literature
Various surveys have been conducted to evaluate scientific opinion on global warming.

Anderegg, Prall, Harold, and Schneider, 2010
A 2010 paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States reviewed publication and citation data for 1,372 climate researchers and resulted in the following two conclusions: (i) 97–98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field support the tenets of ACC (Anthropogenic Climate Change) outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers.[105]

Doran and Kendall Zimmerman, 2009
A poll performed by Peter Doran and Maggie Kendall Zimmerman at Earth and Environmental Sciences [106], University of Illinois at Chicago received replies from 3,146 of the 10,257 polled Earth scientists. Results were analyzed globally and by specialization. 76 out of 79 climatologists who "listed climate science as their area of expertise and who also have published more than 50% of their recent peer-reviewed papers on the subject of climate change" believe that mean global temperatures have risen compared to pre-1800s levels, and 75 out of 77 believe that human activity is a significant factor in changing mean global temperatures. Among all respondents, 90% agreed that temperatures have risen compared to pre-1800 levels, and 82% agreed that humans significantly influence the global temperature. Economic geologists and meteorologists were among the biggest doubters, with only 47 percent and 64 percent, respectively, believing in significant human involvement. A summary from the survey states that: It seems that the debate on the authenticity of global warming and the role played by human activity is largely nonexistent among those who understand the nuances and scientific basis of long-term climate processes.[107]

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Bray and von Storch, 2008
Dennis Bray and Hans von Storch conducted a survey in August 2008 of 2058 climate scientists from 34 different countries.[108] A web link with a unique identifier was given to each respondent to eliminate multiple responses. A total of 373 responses were received giving an overall response rate of 18.2%. No paper on climate change consensus based on this survey has been published yet (February 2010), but one on another subject has been published based on the survey.[109] The survey was composed of 76 questions split into a number of sections. There were sections on the demographics of the respondents, their assessment of the state of climate science, how good the science is, climate change impacts, adaptation and mitigation, their opinion of the IPCC, and how well climate science was being communicated to the public. Most of the answers were on a scale from 1 to 7 from 'not at all' to 'very much'. In the section on climate change impacts questions 20, 21 were relevant to scientific opinion on climate change. Question 20 "How convinced are you that climate change, whether natural or anthropogenic, is occurring now?" got 67.1% very much agree, 26.7% to some large extent (5–6), 6.2% said to some small extent (2–4), none said not at all. Question 21 "How convinced are you that most of recent or near future climate change is, or will be, a result of anthropogenic causes?" received 34.6% very much agree, 48.9% agreeing to a large extent (5–6), 15.1% to a small extent (2–4), and 1.35% not agreeing at all.

STATS, 2007
In 2007, Harris Interactive surveyed 489 randomly selected members of either the American Meteorological Society or the American Geophysical Union for the Statistical Assessment Service (STATS) at George Mason University. The survey found 97% agreed that global temperatures have increased during the past 100 years; 84% say they personally believe human-induced warming is occurring, and 74% agree that “currently available scientific evidence” substantiates its occurrence. Only 5% believe that that human activity does not contribute to greenhouse warming; and 84% believe global climate change poses a moderate to very great danger.[110] [111]

Oreskes, 2004
A 2004 article by geologist and historian of science Naomi Oreskes summarized a study of the scientific literature on climate change.[112] The essay concluded that there is a scientific consensus on the reality of anthropogenic climate change. The author analyzed 928 abstracts of papers from refereed scientific journals between 1993 and 2003, listed with the keywords "global climate change". Oreskes divided the abstracts into six categories: explicit endorsement of the consensus position, evaluation of impacts, mitigation proposals, methods, paleoclimate analysis, and rejection of the consensus position. 75% of the abstracts were placed in the first three categories, thus either explicitly or implicitly accepting the consensus view; 25% dealt with methods or paleoclimate, thus taking no position on current anthropogenic climate change; none of the abstracts disagreed with the consensus position, which the author found to be "remarkable". According to the report, "authors evaluating impacts, developing methods, or studying paleoclimatic change might believe that current climate change is natural. However, none of these papers argued that point."

Bray and von Storch, 2003
Bray and von Storch conducted a survey in 2003 of the perspectives of climate scientists on global climate change.[113] The survey received 530 responses from 27 different countries. The 2003 survey has been strongly criticized on the grounds that it was performed on the web with no means to verify that the respondents were climate scientists or to prevent multiple submissions. The survey required entry of a username and password, but the username and password were circulated to a climate skeptics mailing list and elsewhere on the internet.[114] Bray and von Storch defended their results.[115] and accused climate change skeptics of interpreting the results with bias. Bray's submission to Science on December 22, 2004 was rejected.

Scientific opinion on climate change One of the questions asked in the survey was "To what extent do you agree or disagree that climate change is mostly the result of anthropogenic causes?", with a value of 1 indicating strongly agree and a value of 7 indicating strongly disagree. The results showed a mean of 3.62, with 50 responses (9.4%) indicating "strongly agree" and 54 responses (9.7%) indicating "strongly disagree". The same survey indicates a 72% to 20% endorsement of the IPCC reports as accurate, and a 15% to 80% rejection of the thesis that "there is enough uncertainty about the phenomenon of global warming that there is no need for immediate policy decisions."

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Survey of U.S. state climatologists, 1997
In 1997, the conservative think tank Citizens for a Sound Economy surveyed America's 48 state climatologists on questions related to climate change.[116] Of the 36 respondents, 44% considered global warming to be a largely natural phenomenon, compared to 17% who considered warming to be largely man-made. The survey further found that 58% disagreed or somewhat disagreed with then-President Clinton's assertion that "the overwhelming balance of evidence and scientific opinion is that it is no longer a theory, but now fact, that global warming is for real". 89% agreed that "current science is unable to isolate and measure variations in global temperatures caused ONLY by man-made factors," and 61% said that historical data do not indicate "that fluctuations in global temperatures are attributable to human influences such as burning fossil fuels." 60% of the respondents said that reducing man-made CO2 emissions in the US by 15% below 1990 levels would not prevent global temperatures from rising, and 86% said that reducing emissions in the US to 1990 levels would not prevent rising temperatures. 39% agreed and 33% disagreed that "evidence exists to suggest that the earth is headed for another glacial period,"[117] though the time scale for the next glacial period was not specified.

Bray and von Storch, 1996
In 1996, Dennis Bray and Hans von Storch undertook a survey of climate scientists on attitudes towards global warming and related matters. The results were subsequently published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.[118] The paper addressed the views of climate scientists, with a response rate of 40% from a mail survey questionnaire to 1000 scientists in Germany, the USA and Canada. Most of the scientists believed that global warming was occurring and appropriate policy action should be taken, but there was wide disagreement about the likely effects on society and almost all agreed that the predictive ability of currently existing models was limited. The abstract says: The international consensus was, however, apparent regarding the utility of the knowledge to date: climate science has provided enough knowledge so that the initiation of abatement measures is warranted. However, consensus also existed regarding the current inability to explicitly specify detrimental effects that might result from climate change. This incompatibility between the state of knowledge and the calls for action suggests that, to some degree at least, scientific advice is a product of both scientific knowledge and normative judgment, suggesting a socioscientific construction of the climate change issue. The survey was extensive, and asked numerous questions on many aspects of climate science, model formulation, and utility, and science/public/policy interactions. To pick out some of the more vital topics, from the body of the paper: The resulting questionnaire, consisting of 74 questions, was pre-tested in a German institution and after revisions, distributed to a total of 1,000 scientists in North America and Germany... The number of completed returns was as follows: USA 149, Canada 35, and Germany 228, a response rate of approximately 40%.... ...With a value of 1 indicating the highest level of belief that predictions are possible and a value of 7 expressing the least faith in the predictive capabilities of the current state of climate science knowledge, the mean of the entire sample of 4.6 for the ability to make reasonable predictions of inter-annual variability tends to indicate that scientists feel that reasonable prediction is not yet a possibility... mean of 4.8 for reasonable predictions of 10 years... mean of 5.2 for periods of 100 years...

Scientific opinion on climate change ...a response of a value of 1 indicates a strong level of agreement with the statement of certainty that global warming is already underway or will occur without modification to human behavior... the mean response for the entire sample was 3.3 indicating a slight tendency towards the position that global warming has indeed been detected and is underway.... Regarding global warming as being a possible future event, there is a higher expression of confidence as indicated by the mean of 2.6. Older surveys of scientists • Global Environmental Change Report, 1990: GECR climate survey shows strong agreement on action, less so on warming. Global Environmental Change Report 2, No. 9, pp. 1–3 • Stewart, T. R.,[119] Mumpower, J. L., and Reagan-Cirincione, P. (1992). Scientists' opinions about global climate change: Summary of the results of a survey. NAEP (National Association of Environmental Professionals) Newsletter, 17(2), 6-7. • In 1991, the Center for Science, Technology, and Media commissioned a Gallup poll of 400 members of the American Geophysical Union and the American Meteorological Society along with an analysis of reporting on global warming by the Center for Media and Public Affairs, a report on which was issued in 1992.[120] Accounts of the results of that survey differ in their interpretation and even in the basic statistical percentages: • Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting states that the report said that 67% of the scientists said that human-induced global warming was occurring, with 11% disagreeing and the rest undecided.[121] • George Will reported "53 percent do not believe warming has occurred, and another 30 percent are uncertain." (Washington Post, September 3, 1992). In a correction Gallup stated: "Most scientists involved in research in this area believe that human-induced global warming is occurring now."[122] • A 1993 publication by the Heartland Institute reports: "A Gallup poll conducted on February 13, 1992 of members of the American Geophysical Union and the American Meteorological Society-the two professional societies whose members are most likely to be involved in climate research-found that 18 percent thought some global warming had occurred, 33 percent said insufficient information existed to tell, and 49 percent believed no warming had taken place."[123]

239

Scientific consensus
A question which frequently arises in popular discussion of climate change is whether there is a scientific consensus.[124] Several scientific organizations have explicitly used the term "consensus" in their statements: • American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2006: "The conclusions in this statement reflect the scientific consensus represented by, for example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and the Joint National Academies' statement."[32] • US National Academy of Sciences: "In the judgment of most climate scientists, Earth’s warming in recent decades has been caused primarily by human activities that have increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. ... On climate change, [the National Academies’ reports] have assessed consensus findings on the science..."[125] • Joint Science Academies' statement, 2005: "We recognise the international scientific consensus of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)."[126] • Joint Science Academies' statement, 2001: "The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) represents the consensus of the international scientific community on climate change science. We recognise IPCC as the world’s most reliable source of information on climate change and its causes, and we endorse its method of achieving this consensus."[13] • American Meteorological Society, 2003: "The nature of science is such that there is rarely total agreement among scientists. Individual scientific statements and papers—the validity of some of which has yet to be assessed adequately—can be exploited in the policy debate and can leave the impression that the scientific community is

Scientific opinion on climate change sharply divided on issues where there is, in reality, a strong scientific consensus.... IPCC assessment reports are prepared at approximately five-year intervals by a large international group of experts who represent the broad range of expertise and perspectives relevant to the issues. The reports strive to reflect a consensus evaluation of the results of the full body of peer-reviewed research.... They provide an analysis of what is known and not known, the degree of consensus, and some indication of the degree of confidence that can be placed on the various statements and conclusions."[127] • Network of African Science Academies: “A consensus, based on current evidence, now exists within the global scientific community that human activities are the main source of climate change and that the burning of fossil fuels is largely responsible for driving this change.”[24] • International Union for Quaternary Research, 2008: "INQUA recognizes the international scientific consensus of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)."[128] • Australian Coral Reef Society,[129] 2006: "There is almost total consensus among experts that the earth’s climate is changing as a result of the build-up of greenhouse gases.... There is broad scientific consensus that coral reefs are heavily affected by the activities of man and there are significant global influences that can make reefs more vulnerable such as global warming...."[130]

240

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[122] Steve Rendall, "The Hypocrisy of George Will" (http:/ / www. fair. org/ index. php?page=1156), FAIR report, citing the San Francisco Chronicle, 9/27/92. [123] J.L. Best et al. Eco-Sanity (http:/ / www. heartland. org/ pdf/ 2329do. pdf), p. 55 [124] Oreskes, Naomi (2007). "The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change: How Do We Know We’re Not Wrong?". In DiMento, Joseph F. C.; Doughman, Pamela M.. Climate Change: What It Means for Us, Our Children, and Our Grandchildren. The MIT Press. pp. 65–66.

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Scientific opinion on climate change
ISBN 9780262541930. [125] Understanding and Responding to Climate Change (http:/ / dels-old. nas. edu/ climatechange/ understanding-climate-change. shtml) [126] Joint Science Academies' Statement (http:/ / nationalacademies. org/ onpi/ 06072005. pdf) [127] Climate Change Research: Issues for the Atmospheric and Related Sciences (http:/ / www. ametsoc. org/ POLICY/ climatechangeresearch_2003. html) February 2003 [128] INQUA statement on climate change (http:/ / www. inqua. tcd. ie/ documents/ iscc. pdf) [129] Australianreefsocieity.org (http:/ / www. australiancoralreefsociety. org/ ) [130] Australian Coral Reef Society official letter (http:/ / www. australiancoralreefsociety. org/ pdf/ chadwick605a. pdf), June 16, 2006

244

External links
• Robin Lloyd (23 February 2011). "Why Are Americans So Ill-Informed about Climate Change?" (http://www. scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=why-are-americans-so-ill). Scientific American. Retrieved 31 March 2011.

List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming
This article lists living and deceased scientists who have made statements that conflict with the mainstream assessment of global warming as summarized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and endorsed by other scientific bodies. Climate scientists agree that the global average surface temperature has risen over the last century. The scientific consensus was summarized in the 2001 Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The main conclusions relating directly to past and ongoing global warming about the scientific opinion on climate change were as follows: 1. The global average surface temperature has risen 0.6 ± 0.2 °C since the late 19th century, and 0.17 °C per decade in the last 30 years.[1] 2. "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities", in particular emissions of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane.[2] 3. If greenhouse gas emissions continue the warming will also continue, with temperatures projected to increase by 1.4 °C to 5.8 °C between 1990 and 2100. Accompanying this temperature increase will be increases in some types of extreme weather and a projected sea level rise of 9 cm to 88 cm, excluding "uncertainty relating to ice dynamical changes in the West Antarctic ice sheet".[3] "Overall it is expected that benefits will be outweighed by the negative health effects of rising temperatures, especially in developing countries." [4] This article is an attempt to list notable scientists who have made statements in disagreement with one or more of the principal conclusions of the Third (or Fourth) Assessment Report of the IPCC. Inclusion is based on the following specific criteria: 1. For the purposes of this list, qualification as a scientist is reached by publication of at least one peer-reviewed article in their lifetime in a broadly construed area of "natural sciences". The article need not have been written in recent years nor be in a field relevant to climate. 2. Attributable statements of disagreement in any venue in the individual's own words (not merely inclusion on petitions, surveys, or lists).

List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming

245

Position: Accuracy of IPCC climate projections is questionable
Individuals in this section conclude that it is not possible to project global climate accurately enough to justify the ranges projected for temperature and sea-level rise over the next century. They do not conclude specifically that the current IPCC projections are either too high or too low, but that the projections are likely to be inaccurate due to inadequacies of current global climate modeling. • Richard Lindzen,Pubs [5] Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and member of the National Academy of Sciences: "We are quite confident (1) that global mean temperature is about 0.5 °C higher than it was a century ago; (2) that atmospheric levels of CO2 have risen over the past two centuries; and (3) that CO2 is a greenhouse gas whose increase is likely to warm the earth (one of many, the most important being water vapor and clouds). But – and I cannot stress this enough – we are not in a position to confidently attribute past climate change to CO2 or to forecast what the climate will be in the future."[6] "[T]here has been no question whatsoever that CO2 is an infrared absorber (i.e., a greenhouse gas – albeit a minor one), and its increase should theoretically contribute to warming. Indeed, if all else were kept equal, the increase in CO2 should have led to somewhat more warming than has been observed."[7] [8] • Garth Paltridge,Pubs [9] Visiting Fellow ANU and retired Chief Research Scientist, CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research and retired Director of the Institute of the Antarctic Cooperative Research Centre."There are good and straightforward scientific reasons to believe that the burning of fossil fuel and consequent increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide will lead to an increase in the average temperature of the world above that which would otherwise be the case. Whether the increase will be large enough to be noticeable is still an unanswered question."[10] • Hendrik Tennekes, retired Director of Research, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute: "The blind adherence to the harebrained idea that climate models can generate 'realistic' simulations of climate is the principal reason why I remain a climate skeptic. From my background in turbulence I look forward with grim anticipation to the day that climate models will run with a horizontal resolution of less than a kilometer. The horrible predictability problems of turbulent flows then will descend on climate science with a vengeance."[11] • Antonino Zichichi,Pubs [12] emeritus professor of nuclear physics at the University of Bologna and president of the World Federation of Scientists : "models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are incoherent and invalid from a scientific point of view".[13] He has also said, "It is not possible to exclude that the observed phenomena may have natural causes. It may be that man has little or nothing to do with it"[14]

List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming

246

Position: Global warming is primarily caused by natural processes
Individuals in this section conclude that the observed warming is more likely attributable to natural causes than to human activities. • Khabibullo Abdusamatov, mathematician and astronomer at Pulkovo Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences: "Global warming results not from the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, but from an unusually high level of solar radiation and a lengthy – almost throughout the last century – growth in its intensity...Ascribing 'greenhouse' effect properties to the Earth's atmosphere is not scientifically substantiated...Heated greenhouse gases, which become lighter as a result of expansion, ascend to the atmosphere only to give the absorbed heat away."[15] [16] [17] • Sallie Baliunas, astronomer, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics: "[T]he recent warming trend in the surface temperature record cannot be caused by the increase of human-made greenhouse gases in the air."[18]

Attribution of climate change, based on Meehl et al. (2004), which represents the consensus view

• George V. Chilingar, Professor of Civil and Petroleum Engineering at the University of Southern California: "The authors identify and describe the following global forces of nature driving the Earth’s climate: (1) solar radiation ..., (2) outgassing as a major supplier of gases to the World Ocean and the atmosphere, and, possibly, (3) microbial activities ... . The writers provide quantitative estimates of the scope and extent of their corresponding effects on the Earth’s climate [and] show that the human-induced climatic changes are negligible."[19] • Ian Clark,Pubs [20] hydrogeologist, professor, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa: "That portion of the scientific community that attributes climate warming to CO2 relies on the hypothesis that increasing CO2, which is in fact a minor greenhouse gas, triggers a much larger water vapour response to warm the atmosphere. This mechanism has never been tested scientifically beyond the mathematical models that predict extensive warming, and are confounded by the complexity of cloud formation – which has a cooling effect. ... We know that [the sun] was responsible for climate change in the past, and so is clearly going to play the lead role in present and future climate change. And interestingly... solar activity has recently begun a downward cycle."[21] • Chris de Freitas,Pubs [22] Associate Professor, School of Geography, Geology and Environmental Science, University of Auckland: "There is evidence of global warming. ... But warming does not confirm that carbon dioxide is causing it. Climate is always warming or cooling. There are natural variability theories of warming. To support the argument that carbon dioxide is causing it, the evidence would have to distinguish between human-caused and natural warming. This has not been done."[23] • David Douglass, Pubs [24]solid-state physicist, professor, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Rochester: "The observed pattern of warming, comparing surface and atmospheric temperature trends, does not show the characteristic fingerprint associated with greenhouse warming. The inescapable conclusion is that the human contribution is not significant and that observed increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases make only a negligible contribution to climate warming."[25] • Don Easterbrook,Pubs [26] emeritus professor of geology, Western Washington University: "global warming since 1900 could well have happened without any effect of CO2. If the cycles continue as in the past, the current warm cycle should end soon and global temperatures should cool slightly until about 2035"[27] • William M. Gray, Professor Emeritus and head of The Tropical Meteorology Project, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University: "This small warming is likely a result of the natural alterations in global ocean currents which are driven by ocean salinity variations. Ocean circulation variations are as yet little understood. Human kind has little or nothing to do with the recent temperature changes. We are not that influential."[28] "I am of the opinion that [global warming] is one of the greatest hoaxes ever perpetrated on the

List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming American people."[29] "So many people have a vested interest in this global-warming thing—all these big labs and research and stuff. The idea is to frighten the public, to get money to study it more."[30] • William Happer, physicist specializing in optics and spectroscopy, Princeton University: "all the evidence I see is that the current warming of the climate is just like past warmings. In fact, it's not as much as past warmings yet, and it probably has little to do with carbon dioxide, just like past warmings had little to do with carbon dioxide"[31] • William Kininmonth, meteorologist, former Australian delegate to World Meteorological Organization Commission for Climatology: "There has been a real climate change over the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries that can be attributed to natural phenomena. Natural variability of the climate system has been underestimated by IPCC and has, to now, dominated human influences."[32] • David Legates, associate professor of geography and director of the Center for Climatic Research, University of Delaware: "About half of the warming during the 20th century occurred prior to the 1940s, and natural variability accounts for all or nearly all of the warming."[33] • Tad Murty, oceanographer; adjunct professor, Departments of Civil Engineering and Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa: global warming "is the biggest scientific hoax being perpetrated on humanity. There is no global warming due to human anthropogenic activities. The atmosphere hasn’t changed much in 280 million years, and there have always been cycles of warming and cooling. The Cretaceous period was the warmest on earth. You could have grown tomatoes at the North Pole"[34] • Tim Patterson, Pubs [35] paleoclimatologist and Professor of Geology at Carleton University in Canada: "There is no meaningful correlation between CO2 levels and Earth's temperature over this [geologic] time frame. In fact, when CO2 levels were over ten times higher than they are now, about 450 million years ago, the planet was in the depths of the absolute coldest period in the last half billion years. On the basis of this evidence, how could anyone still believe that the recent relatively small increase in CO2 levels would be the major cause of the past century's modest warming?"[36] [37] • Ian Plimer,Pubs [38] Professor emeritus of Mining Geology, The University of Adelaide: "We only have to have one volcano burping and we have changed the whole planetary climate... It looks as if carbon dioxide actually follows climate change rather than drives it".[39] • Tom Segalstad, head of the Geology Museum at the University of Oslo: "The IPCC's temperature curve (the so-called 'hockey stick' curve) must be in error...human influence on the 'Greenhouse Effect' is minimal (maximum 4%). Anthropogenic CO2 amounts to 4% of the ~2% of the "Greenhouse Effect", hence an influence of less than 1 permil of the Earth's total natural 'Greenhouse Effect' (some 0.03 °C of the total ~33 °C)."[40] • Nicola Scafetta, Pubs [41] research scientist in the physics department at Duke University, wrote a booklet proposing a phenomenological theory of climate change based on the physical properties of the data. Scafetta describes his conclusions writing "At least 60% of the warming of the Earth observed since 1970 appears to be induced by natural cycles which are present in the solar system. A climatic stabilization or cooling until 2030–2040 is forecast by the phenomenological model."[42] [43] • Nir Shaviv, Pubs [44] astrophysicist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem: "[T]he truth is probably somewhere in between [the common view and that of skeptics], with natural causes probably being more important over the past century, whereas anthropogenic causes will probably be more dominant over the next century. ... [A]bout 2/3's (give or take a third or so) of the warming [over the past century] should be attributed to increased solar activity and the remaining to anthropogenic causes." His opinion is based on some proxies of solar activity over the past few centuries.[45] • Fred Singer, Pubs [46] Professor emeritus of Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia: "The greenhouse effect is real. However, the effect is minute, insignificant, and very difficult to detect."[47] [48] “It’s not automatically true that warming is bad, I happen to believe that warming is good, and so do many economists.”[49] • Willie Soon, astrophysicist, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics: "[T]here's increasingly strong evidence that previous research conclusions, including those of the United Nations and the United States

247

List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming government concerning 20th century warming, may have been biased by underestimation of natural climate variations. The bottom line is that if these variations are indeed proven true, then, yes, natural climate fluctuations could be a dominant factor in the recent warming. In other words, natural factors could be more important than previously assumed."[50] • Roy Spencer, principal research scientist, University of Alabama in Huntsville: "I predict that in the coming years, there will be a growing realization among the global warming research community that most of the climate change we have observed is natural, and that mankind’s role is relatively minor".[51] • Philip Stott, professor emeritus of biogeography at the University of London: "...the myth is starting to implode. ... Serious new research at The Max Planck Society has indicated that the sun is a far more significant factor..."[52] • Henrik Svensmark, Pubs [53] Danish National Space Center: "Our team ... has discovered that the relatively few cosmic rays that reach sea-level play a big part in the everyday weather. They help to make low-level clouds, which largely regulate the Earth’s surface temperature. During the 20th Century the influx of cosmic rays decreased and the resulting reduction of cloudiness allowed the world to warm up. ... most of the warming during the 20th Century can be explained by a reduction in low cloud cover."[54] • Jan Veizer, Pubs [55] environmental geochemist, Professor Emeritus from University of Ottawa: "At this stage, two scenarios of potential human impact on climate appear feasible: (1) the standard IPCC model ..., and (2) the alternative model that argues for celestial phenomena as the principal climate driver. ... Models and empirical observations are both indispensable tools of science, yet when discrepancies arise, observations should carry greater weight than theory. If so, the multitude of empirical observations favours celestial phenomena as the most important driver of terrestrial climate on most time scales, but time will be the final judge."[56]

248

Position: Cause of global warming is unknown
Scientists in this section conclude that no principal cause can be ascribed to the observed rising temperatures, whether man-made or natural. • Syun-Ichi Akasofu, Pubs [57] retired professor of geophysics and Founding Director of the International Arctic Research Center of the University of Alaska Fairbanks: "[T]he method of study adopted by the International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) is fundamentally flawed, resulting in a baseless conclusion: Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. Contrary to this statement ..., there is so far no definitive evidence that 'most' of the present warming is due to the greenhouse effect. ... [The IPCC] should have recognized that the range of observed natural changes should not be ignored, and thus their conclusion should be very tentative. The term 'most' in their conclusion is baseless."[58] • Claude Allègre, geochemist, Institute of Geophysics (Paris): "The increase in the CO2 content of the atmosphere is an observed fact and mankind is most certainly responsible. In the long term, this increase will without doubt become harmful, but its exact role in the climate is less clear. Various parameters appear more important than CO2. Consider the water cycle and formation of various types of clouds, and the complex effects of industrial or agricultural dust. Or fluctuations of the intensity of the solar radiation on annual and century scale, which seem better correlated with heating effects than the variations of CO2 content."[59] • Robert C. Balling, Jr., a professor of geography at Arizona State University: "[I]t is very likely that the recent upward trend [in global surface temperature] is very real and that the upward signal is greater than any noise introduced from uncertainties in the record. However, the general error is most likely to be in the warming direction, with a maximum possible (though unlikely) value of 0.3 °C. ... At this moment in time we know only that: (1) Global surface temperatures have risen in recent decades. (2) Mid-tropospheric temperatures have warmed little over the same period. (3) This difference is not consistent with predictions from numerical climate models."[60]

List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming • John Christy, Pubs [61] professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, contributor to several IPCC reports: "I'm sure the majority (but not all) of my IPCC colleagues cringe when I say this, but I see neither the developing catastrophe nor the smoking gun proving that human activity is to blame for most of the warming we see. Rather, I see a reliance on climate models (useful but never "proof") and the coincidence that changes in carbon dioxide and global temperatures have loose similarity over time."[62] • Petr Chylek, Space and Remote Sensing Sciences researcher, Los Alamos National Laboratory: "carbon dioxide should not be considered as a dominant force behind the current warming...how much of the [temperature] increase can be ascribed to CO2, to changes in solar activity, or to the natural variability of climate is uncertain"[63] • David Deming, geology professor at the University of Oklahoma: "The amount of climatic warming that has taken place in the past 150 years is poorly constrained, and its cause – human or natural – is unknown. There is no sound scientific basis for predicting future climate change with any degree of certainty. If the climate does warm, it is likely to be beneficial to humanity rather than harmful. In my opinion, it would be foolish to establish national energy policy on the basis of misinformation and irrational hysteria."[64]

249

Position: Global warming will have few negative consequences
Scientists in this section conclude that projected rising temperatures will be of little impact or a net positive for human society and/or the Earth's environment. • Craig D. Idso, faculty researcher, Office of Climatology, Arizona State University and founder of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change: "the rising CO2 content of the air should boost global plant productivity dramatically, enabling humanity to increase food, fiber and timber production and thereby continue to feed, clothe, and provide shelter for their still-increasing numbers ... this atmospheric CO2-derived blessing is as sure as death and taxes." (May 2007)[65] • Sherwood Idso, former research physicist, USDA Water Conservation Laboratory, and adjunct professor, Arizona State University: "[W]arming has been shown to positively impact human health, while atmospheric CO2 enrichment has been shown to enhance the health-promoting properties of the food we eat, as well as stimulate the production of more of it. ... [W]e have nothing to fear from increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 and global warming." (2003)[66] • Patrick Michaels, Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute and retired research professor of environmental science at the University of Virginia: "scientists know quite precisely how much the planet will warm in the foreseeable future, a modest three-quarters of a degree (Celsius), plus or minus a mere quarter-degree ... a modest warming is a likely benefit... human warming will be strongest and most obvious in very cold and dry air, such as in Siberia and northwestern North America in the dead of winter." (October 16, 2003)[67]

Now deceased
The lists above only include living scientists. The following are deceased. • August H. "Augie" Auer Jr. (1940–2007) believed that the cause of global warming was unknown. Retired New Zealand MetService Meteorologist, past professor of atmospheric science at the University of Wyoming, in 2006 he said: "So if you multiply the total contribution 3.6 by the man-made portion of it, 3.2, you find out that the anthropogenic contribution of CO2 to the global greenhouse effect is 0.117 percent, roughly 0.12 percent, that's like 12c in $100." "'It's miniscule ... it's nothing,'".[68] • Reid Bryson (1920–2008) believed global warming was primarily caused by natural processes. Emeritus Professor of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, in 2007 he said: "It’s absurd. Of course it’s going up. It has gone up since the early 1800s, before the Industrial Revolution, because we’re coming out of the Little Ice Age, not because we’re putting more carbon dioxide into the air."[69]

List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming • Marcel Leroux (1938–2008) believed global warming was primarily caused by natural processes. former Professor of Climatology, Université Jean Moulin, in 2005 he said: "The possible causes, then, of climate change are: well-established orbital parameters on the palaeoclimatic scale, ... solar activity, ...; volcanism ...; and far at the rear, the greenhouse effect, and in particular that caused by water vapor, the extent of its influence being unknown. These factors are working together all the time, and it seems difficult to unravel the relative importance of their respective influences upon climatic evolution. Equally, it is tendentious to highlight the anthropic factor, which is, clearly, the least credible among all those previously mentioned."[70] • Frederick Seitz (1911–2008) believed global warming was primarily caused by natural processes. Former solid-state physicist, former president of the National Academy of Sciences, in 2001 he said: "So we see that the scientific facts indicate that all the temperature changes observed in the last 100 years were largely natural changes and were not caused by carbon dioxide produced in human activities."[71]

250

References
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[6] The Press Gets It Wrong Our report doesn't support the Kyoto treaty. (http:/ / opinionjournal. com/ editorial/ feature. html?id=95000606) Lindzen, Richard Opinion Journal (The Wall Street Journal) June 2001 [7] There is no consensus on Global Warming (http:/ / www. opinionjournal. com/ extra/ ?id=110008597) appeared in The San Francisco Examiner July 2006 and in The Wall Street Journal, June 26, 2006, Page A14 [8] The Climate Science Isn't Settled (http:/ / online. wsj. com/ article/ SB10001424052748703939404574567423917025400. html) in The Wall Street Journal online, November 30, 2009. [9] http:/ / www. rsbs. anu. edu. au/ ResearchGroups/ EBG/ profiles/ Garth_Paltridge/ documents/ Paltridge_Publicationsto2009. pdf [10] Paltridge, FGarth (2009). the Climate Caper (http:/ / books. google. com. au/ books?id=FXNzPgAACAAJ& dq=climate+ caper& ei=DCDQSuylA5-qkASewLz1DQ). Connor Court Publishing. ISBN 978-1-921421-25-9. . [11] A Skeptical View of Climate Models (http:/ / www. his. com/ ~sepp/ Archive/ NewSEPP/ Climate models-Tennekes. htm) Tennekes, Hendrik from Science & Environmental Policy Project www.his.com/~sepp [12] http:/ / www. ccsem. infn. it/ em/ zichichi/ AZ_publication_list. pdf [13] Global Warming Natural, Says Expert (http:/ / www. zenit. org/ english/ visualizza. phtml?sid=106708) Zenit April 2007 [14] Zichichi, Antonino (April 26–27, 2007). "Meteorology and Climate: Problems and Expectations" (http:/ / www. justpax. it/ pcgp/ dati/ 2007-05/ 18-999999/ ZICHICHI_METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATE. pdf). Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace. . Retrieved 2009-10-25. "quote is found on page 9" [15] Russian academic says CO2 not to blame for global warming (http:/ / en. rian. ru/ russia/ 20070115/ 59078992. html) Russian News & Information Agency, January 2007 [16] Russian scientist issues global cooling warning (http:/ / en. rian. ru/ russia/ 20060825/ 53143686. html) Russian News & Information Agency August 2006 [17] http:/ / www. ogoniok. com/ 4933/ 24/ Page in Russian, Go here (http:/ / translate. google. com/ translate?u=http:/ / www. ogoniok. com/ 4933/ 24/ & langpair=ru|en& hl=en& ie=UTF8) for a translation. [18] Global Warming Science vs. Computer Model Speculation: Just Ask the Experts (http:/ / capmag. com/ article. asp?ID=1816) Capitalism Magazine, August 2002 [19] On global forces of nature driving the Earth’s climate. Are humans involved? (http:/ / www. springerlink. com/ content/ t341350850360302/ ) L. F. Khilyuk1 and G. V. Chilingar Environmental Geology, vol. 50 no. 6, August 2006 [20] http:/ / mysite. science. uottawa. ca/ idclark/ pubs. html [21] Letter to the editor (http:/ / www. nrsp. com/ clark_letter_22-03-04. html) The Hill Times, March 2004 [22] http:/ / www. sges. auckland. ac. nz/ about_us/ our_people/ defreitas_chris/ index. shtm#Publications [23] http:/ / www. climatescience. org. nz/ assets/ 2006510223000. CSC_News_3. PDF The New Zealand Herald, May 2006 [24] http:/ / www. pas. rochester. edu/ ~douglass/ recent-publications. html [25] Newsmax.com – New Study Explodes Human-Global Warming Story (http:/ / www. newsmax. com/ insidecover/ global_warming/ 2007/ 12/ 10/ 55974. html) [26] http:/ / myweb. wwu. edu/ dbunny/ pubs. htm [27] The Cause of Global Warming and Predictions for the Coming Century (http:/ / gsa. confex. com/ gsa/ 2006AM/ finalprogram/ abstract_108164. htm) Easterbrook, Don

List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming
[28] Viewpoint: Get off warming bandwagon (http:/ / news. bbc. co. uk/ 1/ hi/ in_depth/ sci_tech/ 2000/ climate_change/ 1023334. stm) Gray, William BBC November 2000 [29] The Tempest (http:/ / www. washingtonpost. com/ wp-dyn/ content/ article/ 2006/ 05/ 23/ AR2006052301305_pf. html) Achenbach, Joel The Washington Post May 2006 [30] Discover Dialogue: Meteorologist William Gray (http:/ / www. discover. com/ issues/ sep-05/ departments/ discover-dialogue) Discover September 2005 [31] Raymond Brusca (January 12, 2009). "Professor denies global warming theory" (http:/ / www. dailyprincetonian. com/ 2009/ 01/ 12/ 22506/ ). . [32] Climate Change: A Natural Hazard (http:/ / www. lavoisier. com. au/ papers/ articles/ climatechange. pdf) [33] Climate Science: Climate Change and Its Impacts (http:/ / www. ncpa. org/ pub/ st/ st285/ ) National Center for Policy Analysis May 2006 [34] Global warning? 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[41] http:/ / www. fel. duke. edu/ ~scafetta/ index-publications. html [42] Scafetta webpage (http:/ / www. fel. duke. edu/ ~scafetta/ index. html) [43] "Climate Change and Its Causes, A Discussion About Some Key Issues” (http:/ / scienceandpublicpolicy. org/ images/ stories/ papers/ originals/ climate_change_cause. pdf) [44] http:/ / www. phys. huji. ac. il/ ~shaviv/ cv/ cv. html [45] Carbon Dioxide or Solar Forcing? (http:/ / www. sciencebits. com/ CO2orSolar) ScienceBits [46] http:/ / www. sepp. org/ about%20sepp/ bios/ singer/ profact. html [47] Singer, S. Fred (April 22, 2005). "'Flat Earth Award' nominee's challenge to Chicken Littles" (http:/ / www. csmonitor. com/ 2005/ 0422/ p08s01-coop. html). Christian Science Monitor. . [48] Singer, S. Fred; Avery, Dennis T. (September 2005). "The Physical Evidence of Earth’s Unstoppable 1,500-Year Climate Cycle" (http:/ / www. ncpa. org/ pdfs/ st279. pdf). National Center for Policy Analysis. . [49] The Denial Machine (http:/ / www. cbc. ca/ fifth/ denialmachine/ index. html) CBC's Denial machine @ 19:23 – Google Video Link (http:/ / video. google. com/ videoplay?docid=522784499045867811& sourceid=docidfeed& hl=en) [50] Global warming is not so hot: 1003 was worse, researchers find (http:/ / news. harvard. edu/ gazette/ 2003/ 04. 24/ 01-weather. html) Harvard University Gazette April 2003 [51] (http:/ / epw. senate. gov/ public/ index. cfm?FuseAction=Files. View& FileStore_id=e12b56cb-4c7b-4c21-bd4a-7afbc4ee72f3) Testimony of Roy W. Spencer before the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee on July 22, 2008 [52] Essay 1: 'Global Warming' as Myth (http:/ / parliamentofthings. info/ climate. html) A Parliament of Things [53] http:/ / www. space. dtu. dk/ English/ Research/ Research_divisions/ Geodesy/ Publications. aspx?lg=showcommon& type=publications& id=38287 [54] Influence of Cosmic Rays on the Earth's Climate (http:/ / www. junkscience. com/ Greenhouse/ influence-of-cosmic-rays-on-the-earth. pdf) Svensmark, Henry Danish National Space Center, Juliane Maries Vej 30, DK-2100 Copenhagen [55] http:/ / mysite. science. uottawa. ca/ jveizer/ default. html [56] Celestial climate driver: a perspective from four billion years of the carbon cycle (http:/ / www. findarticles. com/ p/ articles/ mi_m0QQS/ is_1_32/ ai_n13670777/ pg_11) and here (http:/ / www. esd. mun. ca/ ~gac/ JOURNALS/ TOC/ GACgcV32No1Web. pdf) In J. Veizer, , Geoscience Canada, March 2005 [57] http:/ / www. iarc. uaf. edu/ people/ sakasofu [58] On the Fundamental Defect in the IPCC’s Approach to Global Warming Research (http:/ / climatesci. org/ 2007/ 06/ 15/ on-the-fundamental-defect-in-the-ipcc’s-approach-to-global-warming-research-by-syun-ichi-akasofu/ ) Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr. Research Group Weblog, June 15, 2007 [59] Climat: la prévention, oui, la peur, non (http:/ / www. lexpress. fr/ idees/ tribunes/ dossier/ allegre/ dossier. asp?ida=452950), Translation from the original French version in L'Express, May 2006 [60] The Increase in Global Temperature: What it Does and Does Not Tell Us (http:/ / www. marshall. org/ pdf/ materials/ 170. pdf) Balling, Robert George C. Marshall Institute, Policy Outlook September 2003 [61] http:/ / www. nsstc. uah. edu/ atmos/ christy_pubs. html [62] Christy, John (2007-11-01). "My Nobel Moment" (http:/ / online. wsj. com/ article/ SB119387567378878423. html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries). Wall Street Journal. . Retrieved 2007-11-02. [63] A Long Term Perspective on Climate Change (http:/ / downloads. heartland. org/ 2329bo. pdf) – Heartland.org

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List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming
[64] Testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works (http:/ / epw. senate. gov/ hearing_statements. cfm?id=266543) December 2006 [65] A Science—Based Rebuttal to the Testimony of Al Gore before the United States Senate Environment & Public Works Committee (http:/ / www. heartland. org/ custom/ semod_policybot/ pdf/ 21345. pdf) [66] Enhanced or Impaired? Human Health in a CO2-Enriched Warmer World (http:/ / www. co2science. org/ scripts/ Template/ 0_CO2ScienceB2C/ pdf/ health2pps. pdf). CO2 Science. November 2003, p. 30 [67] Michaels, Patrick (October 16, 2003). "Posturing and Reality on Warming" (http:/ / www. cato. org/ research/ articles/ michaels-031016. html). CATO Institute. . Retrieved June 10, 2009. [68] AUER EXPLAINS WHY HE BACKS CLIMATE SCIENCE COALITION (http:/ / www. tmcnet. com/ usubmit/ 2006/ 04/ 30/ 1626112. htm) New Zealand Press Association April 30, 2006. [69] Wisconsin's Energy Cooperative (http:/ / www. wecnmagazine. com/ 2007issues/ may/ may07. html) May 2007 [70] M. Leroux, Global Warming – Myth or Reality?, 2005, p. 120 (http:/ / www. amazon. com/ dp/ 354023909X) [71] Do people cause global warming? (http:/ / www. heartland. org/ Article. cfm?artId=812) Heartland Institute Environment News December 2001

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Effects of global warming
This article is about the effects of global warming and climate change.[2] The effects, or impacts, of climate change may be physical, ecological, social or economic. Evidence of observed climate change includes the instrumental temperature record, rising sea levels, and decreased snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere.[3] According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007a:10), "[most] of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in [human greenhouse gas] concentrations". It is predicted that future climate changes will include further global warming (i.e., an upward trend in global mean temperature), sea level rise, and a Graphical description of risks and impacts of climate change by IPCC (2001). A revision probable increase in the frequency of [1] of this figure by Smith et al. (2009) shows increased risks. some extreme weather events. Signatories of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change have agreed to implement policies designed to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases.

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Definition of climate change
This article refers to reports produced by the IPCC. In their usage, "climate change" refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean and/or variability of its properties, and that persists for extended periods, typically decades or longer (IPCC, 2007d:30).[4] The climate change referred to may be due to natural causes or the result of human activity.

Physical impacts

Global mean surface temperature difference from the average for 1880-2009

Mean surface temperature change for the period 1999 to 2008 relative to the average temperatures from 1940 to 1980

This section describes some physical impacts of climate change. For some of these physical impacts, their effect on social and economic systems are also described. Over the last hundred years or so, the instrumental temperature record has shown a trend in climate of increased global mean temperature, i.e., global warming. Other observed changes include Arctic shrinkage, Arctic methane release, releases of terrestrial carbon from permafrost regions and Arctic methane release in coastal sediments, and sea level rise.[5] [6] Global average temperature is predicted to increase over this century, with a probable increase in frequency of some extreme weather events, and changes in rainfall patterns. Moving from global to regional scales, there is increased uncertainty over how climate will change. The probability of warming having unforeseen consequences increases with the rate, magnitude, and duration of climate change.[7] Some of the physical impacts of climate change are irreversible at continental and global scales.[8] With medium confidence, IPCC (2007b:17) concluded that with a global average temperature increase of 1–4°C, (relative to 1990–2000) partial deglaciation of the Greenland ice sheet would occur over a period of centuries to millennia.[9] Including the possible contribution of partial deglaciation of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, sea level would rise by 4–6 m or more.

Effects on weather
Observations show that there have been changes in weather.[10] As climate changes, the probabilities of certain types of weather events are affected. Changes have been observed in the amount, intensity, frequency, and type of precipitation.[11] Widespread increases in heavy precipitation have occurred, even in places where total rain amounts have decreased. IPCC (2007d) concluded that human influences had, more likely than not (greater than 50% probability, based on expert judgement), contributed to an increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events.[12] Projections of future changes in precipitation show overall increases in the global average, but with substantial shifts in where and how precipitation falls.[13]

Effects of global warming Evidence suggests that since the 1970s, there have been substantial increases in the intensity and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes.[14] Models project a general tendency for more intense but fewer storms outside the tropics.[13] Extreme weather Since the late 20th century, changes have been observed in the trends of some extreme weather and climate events, e.g., heat waves.[15] Human activities have, with varying degrees of confidence, contributed to some of these observed trends. Projections for the 21st century suggest continuing changes in trends for some extreme events. Solomon et al. (2007), for example, projected the following likely (greater than 66% probability, based on expert judgement) changes: • an increase in the areas affected by drought; • increased tropical cyclone activity; • and increased incidence of extreme high sea level (excluding tsunamis) Increased freshwater flow Research based on satellite observations, published in October, 2010, shows an increase in the flow of freshwater into the world's oceans, partly from melting ice and partly from increased precipitation driven by an increase in global ocean evaporation. The increase in global freshwater flow, based on data from 1994 to 2006, was about 18%. Much of the increase is in areas which already experience high rainfall. One effect, as perhaps experienced in the 2010 Pakistan floods, is to overwhelm flood control infrastructure.[16] Local climate change Regional effects of global warming vary in nature. Some are the result of a generalised global change, such as rising temperature, resulting in local effects, such as melting ice. In other cases, a change may be related to a change in a particular ocean current or weather system. In such cases, the regional effect may be disproportionate and will not necessarily follow the global trend. There are three major ways in which global warming will make changes to regional climate: melting or forming ice, changing the hydrological cycle (of evaporation and precipitation) and changing currents in the oceans and air flows in the atmosphere. The coast can also be considered a region, and will suffer severe impacts from sea level rise.

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The first recorded South Atlantic hurricane, "Catarina", which hit Brazil in March 2004

Biogeochemical cycles
Climate change may have an effect on the carbon cycle in an interactive "feedback" process . A feedback exists where an initial process triggers changes in a second process that in turn influences the initial process. A positive feedback intensifies the original process, and a negative feedback reduces it (IPCC, 2007d:78).[4] Models suggest that the interaction of the climate system and the carbon cycle is one where the feedback effect is positive (Schneider et al.., 2007:792).[17] Using the A2 SRES emissions scenario, Schneider et al.. (2007:789) found that this effect led to additional warming by 2100, relative to the 1990-2000 period, of 0.1 to 1.5 °C. This estimate was made with high confidence. The climate projections made in the IPCC Forth Assessment Report of 1.1 to 6.4 °C account for this feedback effect. On the other hand, with medium confidence, Schneider et al.. (2007) commented that additional releases of GHGs were possible from permafrost, peat lands, wetlands, and large stores of marine hydrates at high latitudes.

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Glacier retreat and disappearance
IPCC (2007a:5) found that, on average, mountain glaciers and snow cover had decreased in both the northern and southern hemispheres.[3] This widespread decrease in glaciers and ice caps has contributed to observed sea level rise. With very high or high confidence, IPCC (2007d:11) made a number of predictions relating to future changes in glaciers:[4] • Mountainous areas in Europe will face glacier retreat • In Latin America, changes in precipitation patterns and the disappearance of glaciers will significantly affect water availability for human consumption, agriculture, and energy production • In Polar regions, there will be reductions in glacier extent and the thickness of glaciers.

A map of the change in thickness of mountain glaciers since 1970. Thinning in orange and red, thickening in blue.

Oceans
The role of the oceans in global warming is a complex one. The oceans serve as a sink for carbon dioxide, taking up much that would otherwise remain in the atmosphere, but increased levels of CO2 have led to ocean acidification. Furthermore, as the temperature of the oceans increases, they become less able to absorb excess CO2. Global warming is projected to have a number of effects on the oceans. Ongoing effects include rising sea levels due to thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and ice sheets, and warming of the ocean surface, leading to increased temperature stratification. Other possible effects include large-scale changes in ocean circulation. Acidification Dissolving CO2 in seawater increases the hydrogen ion (H+) concentration in the ocean, and thus decreases ocean pH. Caldeira and Wickett (2003) placed the rate and magnitude of modern ocean acidification changes in the context of probable historical changes during the last 300 million years.[18] Since the industrial revolution began, it is estimated that surface ocean pH has dropped by slightly more than 0.1 units (on the logarithmic scale of pH; approximately a 30% increase in H+), and it is estimated that it will drop by a further 0.3 to 0.5 units (more than doubling ocean H+ concentrations) by 2100 as the oceans absorb more anthropogenic CO2.[18] [19] [20] Oxygen depletion The amount of oxygen dissolved in the oceans may decline, with adverse consequences for ocean life.[21] [22] Sea level rise

IPCC (2007a:5) reported that since 1961, global average sea level had risen at an average rate of 1.8 [1.3 to 2.3] mm/yr.[3] Between 1993 and 2003, the rate increased above the previous period to 3.1 [2.4 to 3.8] mm/yr. IPCC (2007a) were uncertain whether the increase in rate from 1993 to 2003 was due to natural variations in sea level over the time period, or whether it reflected an increase in the underlying long-term trend. IPCC (2007a:13, 14) projected sea level rise to the end of the 21st century using the SRES emission scenarios. Across the six SRES marker scenarios, sea level was projected to rise by 18 to 59 cm (7.1 to 23.2 inches). This

Effects of global warming projection was for the time period 2090-2099, with the increase in level relative to average sea levels over the 1980-1999 period. Due to a lack of scientific understanding, this sea level rise estimate does not include all of the possible contributions of ice sheets (see the section on abrupt or irreversible changes). Temperature rise From 1961 to 2003, the global ocean temperature has risen by 0.10 °C from the surface to a depth of 700 m. There is variability both year-to-year and over longer time scales, with global ocean heat content observations showing high rates of warming for 1991 to 2003, but some cooling from 2003 to 2007.[23] The temperature of the Antarctic Southern Ocean rose by 0.17 °C (0.31 °F) between the 1950s and the 1980s, nearly twice the rate for the world's oceans as a whole.[24] As well as having effects on ecosystems (e.g. by melting sea ice, affecting algae that grow on its underside), warming reduces the ocean's ability to absorb CO2.

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Social systems
Food supply
Climate change will impact agriculture and food production around the world due to: the effects of elevated CO2 in the atmosphere, higher temperatures, altered precipitation and transpiration regimes, increased frequency of extreme events, and modified weed, pest, and pathogen pressure (Easterling et al.., 2007:282).[25] In general, low-latitude areas are at most risk of having decreased crop yields (Schneider et al.., 2007:790).[17] With low to medium confidence, Schneider et al.. (2007:787) concluded that for about a 1 to 3°C global mean temperature increase (by 2100, relative to the 1990-2000 average level) there would be productivity decreases for some cereals in low latitudes, and productivity increases in high latitudes. With medium confidence, global production potential was predicted to: • increase up to around 3°C, • very likely decrease above about 3 to 4°C. Most of the studies on global agriculture assessed by Schneider et al.. (2007:790) had not incorporated a number of critical factors, including changes in extreme events, or the spread of pests and diseases. Studies had also not considered the development of specific practices or technologies to aid adaptation.

Health
Human beings are exposed to climate change through changing weather patterns (temperature, precipitation, sea-level rise and more frequent extreme events) and indirectly through changes in water, air and food quality and changes in ecosystems, agriculture, industry and settlements and the economy (Confalonieri et al.., 2007:393).[26] According to a literature assessment by Confalonieri et al.. (2007:393), the effects of climate change to date have been small, but are projected to progressively increase in all countries and regions. With high confidence, Confalonieri et al.. (2007:393) concluded that climate change had altered the seasonal distribution of some allergenic pollen species. With medium confidence, they concluded that climate change had: • altered the distribution of some infectious disease vectors • increased heatwave-related deaths With high confidence, IPCC (2007d:48) projected that:[4] • the health status of millions of people would be affected through, for example, increases in malnutrition; increased deaths, diseases and injury due to extreme weather events; increased burden of diarrhoeal diseases; increased frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases due to high concentrations of ground-level ozone in urban areas related to climate change; and altered spatial distribution of some infectious diseases.

Effects of global warming • climate change would bring some benefits in temperate areas, such as fewer deaths from cold exposure, and some mixed effects such as changes in range and transmission potential of malaria in Africa. Overall, IPCC (2007d:48) expected that benefits would be outweighed by negative health effects of rising temperatures, especially in developing countries. With very high confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007:393) concluded that economic development was an important component of possible adaptation to climate change. Economic growth on its own, however, was not judged to be sufficient to insulate the world's population from disease and injury due to climate change. The manner in which economic growth occurs was judged to be important, along with how the benefits of growth are distributed in society. Examples of other important factors in determining the health of populations were listed as: education, health care, and public-health infrastructure. Specific health impacts Malnutrition With high confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007) projected that malnutrition would increase due to climate change.[27] This link is associated with climate variability and change (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[28] Drought reduces variety in diets and reduces overall consumption. This can lead to micronutrient deficiencies. The World Health Organization (WHO) (referred to by Confalonieri et al., 2007)[29] conducted a regional and global assessment to quantify the amount of premature morbidity and mortality due to a range of factors, including climate change. Projections were made over future climate change impacts. Limited adjustments for adaptation were included in the estimates based on these projections. Projected relative risks attributable to climate change in 2030 varied by health outcome and region. Risks were largely negative, with most of the projected disease burden due to increases in diarrhoeal disease and malnutrition. These increases were primarily in low-income populations already experiencing a large burden of disease. Extreme events With high confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007) projected that climate change would increase the number of people suffering from death, disease and injury from heatwaves, floods, storms, fires and droughts.[27] Floods and weather disasters Floods are low-probability, high-impact events that can overwhelm physical infrastructure and human communities (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[30] Major storm and flood disasters have occurred in the last two decades. The impacts of weather disasters is considerable and unequally distributed. For example, natural disasters have been shown to result in increased domestic violence against - and post-traumatic stress disorders in – women. In terms of deaths and populations affected, floods and tropical cyclones have the greatest impact in South Asia and Latin America. Vulnerability to weather disasters depends on the attributes of the person at risk, including where they live and their age, as well as other social and environmental factors. High-density populations in low-lying coastal regions experience a high health burden from weather disasters. Heatwaves Hot days, hot nights and heatwaves have become more frequent (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[31] Heatwaves are associated with marked short-term increases in mortality. For example, in August 2003, a heatwave in Europe resulted in excess mortality in the range of 35,000 total deaths. Heat-related morbidity and mortality is projected to increase (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[32] The health burden could be relatively small for moderate heatwaves in temperate regions, because deaths occur primarily in susceptible persons. Drought The effects of drought on health include deaths, malnutrition, infectious diseases and respiratory diseases (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[28] Countries within the "Meningitis Belt" in semi-arid sub-Saharan Africa experience the

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Effects of global warming highest endemicity and epidemic frequency of meningococcal meningitis in Africa, although other areas in the Rift Valley, the Great Lakes, and southern Africa are also affected (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[33] The spatial distribution, intensity, and seasonality of meningococcal (epidemic) meningitis appear to be strongly linked to climate and environmental factors, particularly drought. The cause of this link is not fully understood. Fires In some regions, changes in temperature and precipitation are projected to increase the frequency and severity of fire events (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[34] Forest and bush fires cause burns, damage from smoke inhalation and other injuries. Infectious disease vectors With high confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007) projected that climate change would continue to change the range of some infectious disease vectors.[27] Vector-borne diseases (VBD) are infections transmitted by the bite of infected arthropod species, such as mosquitoes, ticks, triatomine bugs, sandflies, and blackflies (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[35] There is some evidence of climate-change-related shifts in the distribution of tick vectors of disease, of some (non-malarial) mosquito vectors in Europe and North America. Climate change has also been implicated in changes in the breeding and migration dates of several bird species. Several species of wild bird can act as carriers of human pathogens as well as of vectors of infectious agents. Dengue It is possibled that climate change will increase the number of people at risk of dengue (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[27] Based on the expert judgement of Confalonieri et al. (2007), this projection had about a two-in-ten chance of being correct. Dengue is the world's most important vector-borne viral disease (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[36] Several studies have reported associations between dengue and climate, however, these associations are not entirely consistent. Malaria The spatial distribution, intensity of transmission, and seasonalty of malaria is influenced by climate in Sub-saharan Africa (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[37] Rainfall can be a limiting factor for mosquito populations and there is some evidence of reductions in transmission associated with decadal decreases in rainfall. The effects of observed climate change on the geographical distribution of malaria and its transmission intensity in highland regions remains controversial. There is no clear evidence that malaria has been affected by climate change in South America or in continental regions of the Russian Federation. There is still much uncertainty about the potential impact of climate change on malaria at local and global scales. A paper by researchers from the University of Oxford and the University of Florida published in Nature in May 2010 concluded that claims that a warming climate has led to more widespread disease and death due to malaria are largely at odds with the evidence, and that "predictions of an intensification of malaria in a warmer world, based on extrapolated empirical relationships or biological mechanisms, must be set against a context of a century of warming that has seen marked global declines in the disease and a substantial weakening of the global correlation between malaria endemicity and climate."[38] [39] Other infectious diseases There is good evidence that diseases transmitted by rodents sometimes increase during heavy rainfall and flooding because of altered patterns of human-pathogen-rodent contact (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[40] Projections With very high confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007) concluded that climate change would have mixed effects on malaria.[27] Malaria is a complex disease to model and all of the published models assessed by Confalonieri et al. (2007) had limited parameterization of some key factors.[41] Parametrization is used in climate models because the resolution of models is insufficient to resolve some physical processes (Randall et al., 2007).[42] Given this limitation, models assessed by Confalonieri et al. (2007) projected that, particularly in Africa, climate change would

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Effects of global warming be associated with geographical expansions of the areas suitable for Plasmodium falciparum malaria in some regions, and contractions in other regions. Projections also suggested that some regions would experience a longer season of transmission. Projections suggested expansions in vector species that carry dengue for parts of Australia and New Zealand. Diarrhoeal diseases With medium confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007) concluded that climate change would increase the burden of diarrhoeal diseases.[27] Childhood mortality due to diarrhoea in low-income countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, remains high (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[43] This is despite improvements in care. Several studies have shown that transmission of enteric pathogens is higher during the rainy season. Some studies have found that higher temperature was strongly associated with increased episodes of diarrhoeal disease in adults and children in Peru. The WHO study, referred to earlier, projected that climate change would increase the burden of diarrhoeal diseases in low-income regions by approximately 2 to 5% in 2020 (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[29] Ground-level ozone With high confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007) projected that climate change would increase cardio-respiratory morbidity and mortality associated with ground-level ozone.[27] Ground-level ozone is both naturally occurring and is the primary constituent of urban smog (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[44] Ozone in smog is formed through chemical reactions involving nitrogen oxides and other compounds. The reaction is a photochemical reaction, meaning that it involves electromagnetic radiation, and occurs in the presence of bright sunshine and high temperatures. Exposure to elevated concentrations of ozone is associated with increased hospital admissions for pneumonia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma, allergic rhinitis and other respiratory diseases, and with premature mortality. Background levels of ground-level ozone have risen since pre-industrial times because of increasing emissions of methane, carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxides (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[45] This trend is expected to continue into the mid-21st century. Cold-waves It is expected thatb climate change will bring some health benefits (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[27] It is expected that these benefits will be outweighed by negative climate change effects. Cold-waves continue to be a problem in northern latitudes, where very low temperatures can be reached in a few hours and extend over long periods (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[46] Reductions in cold-deaths due to climate change are projected to be greater than increases in heat-related deaths in the UK (Confalonieri et al., 2007).[32]

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Water resources
In a literature assessment, Kundzewicz et al.. (2007:175) concluded, with high confidence, that:[47] • the negative impacts of climate change on freshwater systems outweigh the benefits. All of the regions assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (Africa, Asia, Australia and New Zealand, Europe, Latin America, North America, Polar regions (Arctic and Antarctic), and small islands) showed an overall net negative impact of climate change on water resources and freshwater ecosystems. • Semi-arid and arid areas are particularly exposed to the impacts of climate change on freshwater. With very high confidence, it was judged that many of these areas, e.g., the Mediterranean basin, western USA, southern Africa, and north-eastern Brazil, would suffer a decrease in water resources due to climate change.

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Migration and conflict
An argument can be made that rising ethnic conflicts may be linked to competition over natural resources that are increasingly scarce as a result of climate change (Wilbanks et al.., 2007:365).[48] According to a literature assessment by Wilbanks et al.. (2007:365), other factors need to be taken into account. It was suggested that major environmentally influenced conflicts in Africa have more to do with the relative abundance of resources, e.g., oil and diamonds, than with resource scarcity. On this basis, Wilbanks et al.. (2007:365) suggested that predictions of future conflicts due climate change should be viewed with caution. With high confidence, Schneider et al.. (2007:787) predicted that stresses such as increased drought, water shortages, and riverine and coastal flooding would affect many local and regional populations.[17] With medium confidence, it was predicted that these stresses would lead, in some cases, to relocation within or between countries. This might have the effect of exacerbating conflicts, and possibly impose migration pressures. Zhang et al also concluded that climate change drives conflict.[49]

Aggregate impacts
Aggregating impacts adds up the total impact of climate change across sectors and/or regions (IPCC, 2007d:76).[4] The impacts of climate change across world population will not be distributed evenly (Smith et al., 2001:957).[50] IPCC (2007b:17) found that for increases in global mean temperature of less than 1-3 °C above 1990 levels, some impacts were projected to produce benefits in some places and sectors, and produce costs in other places and sectors.[9] For some low-latitude and polar regions, net costs were projected for small increases in temperature. According to IPCC (2007b:17), a temperature increase of greater than about 2-3 °C would very likely result in all regions either experiencing reductions in net benefits or increases in net costs.

Regions
Some regions are likely to be especially affected by climate change (IPCC, 2007d:9):[4] • The Arctic, because of high rates of projected warming. • Africa, especially in the sub-Saharan region. This is due to the continent's low capacity to adapt to climate change and projected impacts. • Small islands, due to high exposure of population and infrastructure at risk to sea-level rise and increased storm surge. • Asian megadeltas, due to large populations and high exposure to sea-level rise, storm surge and river flooding. Within other areas, some people are particularly at risk, such as the poor, young children and the elderly.

Biological systems
With very high confidence, Schneider et al.. (2007:792) concluded that regional temperature trends were already affecting species and ecosystems around the world.[17] In a literature assessment, Rosenzweig et al.. (2007:81) concluded that over the last three decades, human-induced warming had likely had a discernable influence on many physical and biological systems.[51] Schneider et al.. (2007:792) concluded, with high confidence, that climate change would result in the extinction of many species and a reduction in the diversity of ecosystems. • Terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity: With a warming of 3°C, relative to 1990 levels, it is likely that global terrestrial vegetation would become a net source of carbon (Schneider et al.., 2007:792). With high confidence, Schneider et al.. (2007:788) concluded that a global mean temperature increase of around 4°C (above the 1990-2000 level) by 2100 would lead to major extinctions around the globe.

Effects of global warming • Marine ecosystems and biodiversity: With very high confidence, Schneider et al.. (2007:792) concluded that a warming of 2°C above 1990 levels would result in mass mortality of coral reefs globally. • Freshwater ecosystems: Above about a 4°C increase in global mean temperature by 2100 (relative to 1990-2000), Schneider et al.. (2007:789) concluded, with high confidence, that many freshwater species would become extinct.

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Abrupt or irreversible changes
Abrupt climate change Abrupt climate change is defined as a large-scale change in the climate system that takes place over a few decades or less, persists (or is anticipated to persist) for at least a few decades, and causes substantial disruptions in human and natural systems (CCSP, 2008a).[52] There is the possibility of a rapid change in glaciers, ice sheets, and hence sea level. Predictions of such a change are highly uncertain due to a lack of scientific understanding. Modeling of the processes associated with a rapid ice sheet and glacier change could potentially increase future projections of sea level rise. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important component of the Earth's climate system, characterized by a northward flow of warm, salty water in the upper layers of the Atlantic and a southward flow of colder water in the deep Atlantic (CCSP, 2008b, p. 5).[53] Potential impacts associated with MOC changes include reduced warming or (in the case of abrupt change) absolute cooling of northern high-latitude areas near Greenland and north-western Europe, an increased warming of Southern Hemisphere high-latitudes, tropical drying, as well as changes to marine ecosystems, terrestrial vegetation, oceanic CO2 uptake, oceanic oxygen concentrations, and shifts in fisheries (Schneider et al., 2007).[54] According to a assessment by the US Climate Change Science Program (CCSP, 2008b, p. 5), it is very likely that the strength of the AMOC will decrease over the course of the 21st century. Warming is still expected to occur over most of the European region downstream of the North Atlantic Current in response to increasing greenhouse gases, as well as over North America. Although it is very unlikely that the AMOC will collapse in the 21st century, the potential consequences of such a collapse could be severe. Irreversibilities An irreversible change is one where that change, once set in motion, cannot be reversed, at least over some specified timescale, e.g., centuries to millennia (Goldemberg et al., 1996, p. 22).[55] Climate change is likely to lead to some irreversible impacts (IPCC, 2007d).[56] One example of a potentially irreversible impact of climate change is damage to ecosystems.

Footnotes
The IPCC report that is referred to in this article uses specific and quantitative language to describe uncertainty (Ahmad et al., 2001).[57] This language is intended to provide an indication of the level of confidence that IPCC authors have about a particular finding. The qualitative language used to describe uncertainty has a quantitative scale associated with it. The quantitative values for qualitative terms are intended to ensure that confidence levels are interpreted correctly. The is because qualitative statements, e.g., using the word "likely," can be interpreted differently in quantitative terms (Moss and Schneider, 2000, p. 44).[58] Quantitative values for confidence statements made in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report are listed below (IPCC, 2007).[59] These quantitative values are subjective probabilities (see Ahmad et al., 2001, section 2.6.2) that reflect the expert judgement of IPCC authors: • • •
a

Very high confidence: At least 9 out of 10 chance of being correct High confidence: About 8 out of 10 chance c Medium confidence: About 5 out of 10 chance
b

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d e

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Low confidence: About 2 out of 10 chance Very low confidence: Less than a 1 out of 10 chance

Notes
[1] Smith, B.; Schneider, H.; Oppenheimer, M.; Yohe, W.; Hare, W.; Mastrandrea, D.; Patwardhan, A.; Burton, I. et al. (Mar 2009). "Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) "reasons for concern"". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 106 (11): 4133–4137. doi:10.1073/pnas.0812355106. ISSN 0027-8424. PMC 2648893. PMID 19251662. [2] In this article, the phrases "global warming" and "climate change" are used interchangeably. [3] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. "Summary for Policymakers" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg1/ en/ spm. html). In Solomon 2007. . [4] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007d). "Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team et al. (eds.) (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report. htm)"]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. pp. 104. . Retrieved 2009-05-20. [5] "IMPACTS: On the Threshold of Abrupt Climate Changes" (http:/ / newscenter. lbl. gov/ feature-stories/ 2008/ 09/ 17/ impacts-on-the-threshold-of-abrupt-climate-changes/ ). IMPACTS: On the Threshold of Abrupt Climate Changes. U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research. September 2008. . Retrieved 2008-10-14. [6] Connor, Steve (September 2008). "Hundreds of methane 'plumes' discovered" (http:/ / www. independent. co. uk/ news/ science/ hundreds-of-methane-plumes-discovered-941456. html). Hundreds of methane 'plumes' discovered (London: The Independent). . Retrieved 2008-10-14. [7] "Executive Summary" (http:/ / books. nap. edu/ openbook. php?record_id=10136& page=1) (PHP). Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. United States National Academy of Sciences. June 2002. . Retrieved 2007-05-07. [8] NOAA (26 Jan 2009). "New Study Shows Climate Change Largely Irreversible" (http:/ / www. noaanews. noaa. gov/ stories2009/ 20090126_climate. html). Press release. . [9] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. "Summary for Policymakers" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ pdf/ assessment-report/ ar4/ wg2/ ar4-wg2-spm. pdf). In Parry 2007, pp. 7–22 (PDF). . [10] Le Treut, H., et al.. "FAQ 1.2 What is the Relationship between Climate Change and Weather?" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg1/ en/ faq-1-2. html). In Solomon 2007. Historical Overview of Climate Change. . [11] Karl 2009, ed. "Global Climate Change" (http:/ / downloads. globalchange. gov/ usimpacts/ pdfs/ Global. pdf) (PDF). p. 18. . [12] IPCC, 2007d. SPM 2. Causes of change (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ syr/ en/ spms2. html) [13] Karl 2009, ed. "Global Climate Change" (http:/ / downloads. globalchange. gov/ usimpacts/ pdfs/ Global. pdf) (PDF). p. 24. . 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Syeda, et al, Published online before print October 4, 2010, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1003292107 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, posted on NatGeo NewsWatch October 8, 2010, "There is nearly 20 percent more freshwater flowing into the world's oceans than there was 10 years ago--a sign of climate change and a harbinger of more flooding.", accessed October 9, 2010 [17] Schneider, S.H., et al.. "Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change" (http:/ / www. ipcc. ch/ publications_and_data/ ar4/ wg2/ en/ ch19. html). In Parry 2007, p. 781. . [18] Caldeira, K. and M.E. Wickett (2003). "Anthropogenic carbon and ocean pH" (http:/ / pangea. stanford. edu/ research/ Oceans/ GES205/ Caldeira_Science_Anthropogenic Carbon and ocean pH. pdf). Nature 425 (6956): 365–365. doi:10.1038/425365a. PMID 14508477. . [19] Orr, James C.; et al. (2005). "Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms" (http:/ / web. archive. org/ web/ 20080625100559/ http:/ / www. ipsl. jussieu. fr/ ~jomce/ acidification/ paper/ Orr_OnlineNature04095. pdf). Nature 437 (7059): 681–686. doi:10.1038/nature04095. PMID 16193043. Archived from the original (http:/ / www. ipsl. jussieu. fr/ ~jomce/ acidification/ paper/ Orr_OnlineNature04095. pdf) on 2008-06-25. . [20] Raven, J. A. et al. (2005). "Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide" (http:/ / www. royalsoc. ac. uk/ displaypagedoc. asp?id=13314). Royal Society, London, UK.. . [21] Crowley, T. J.; North, G. R. (May 1988). "Abrupt Climate Change and Extinction Events in Earth History". Science 240 (4855): 996–1002. doi:10.1126/science.240.4855.996. PMID 17731712. [22] Shaffer, G.; Olsen, S. M.; Pedersen, J. O. P. (2009). "Long-term ocean oxygen depletion in response to carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels". 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Parikh, C. Parmesan, S.H. Schneider, F. Toth, G. Yohe. Contributing Authors: A.U. Ahmed, P. Ayton, B.B. Fitzharris, J.E. Hay, R.N. Jones, G. Morgan, R. Moss, W. North, G. Petschel-Held, R. Richels. Review Editors: I. Burton and R. Kates (2001). 2.6. Characterizing Uncertainty and "Levels of Confidence" in Climate Assessment. In: Chapter 2. Methods and Tools. In: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (J.J. McCarthy, O.F. Canziani, N.A. Leary, D.J. Dokken, and K.S. White, Eds.) (http:/ / www. grida. no/ climate/ ipcc_tar/ wg2/ 103. htm). Print version: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. This version: GRID-Arendal website (http:/ / www. grida. no/ ). ISBN 0521807689. . Retrieved 2010-05-31. [58] Moss, R. and S. Schneider (July 2000) (PDF). Uncertainties. 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ISBN 9780521880107. . Retrieved 2010-05-31.

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Further reading
• Houghton, P.J.; Ding, Y.; Griggs, D.J. et al., eds (2001). Climate change 2001: the scientific basis: contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http:// www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0-521-80767-0. • Karl, T.R., et al., ed (2009). Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States (http://www.globalchange. gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/download-the-report). Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-0-521-14407-0. Retrieved 2011-04-28. • Parry, M.L., et al., ed (2007). Climate change 2007 : impacts, adaptation and vulnerability : contribution of Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http:// www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html). Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0521880106. • Solomon, S., et al., ed (2007). Climate change 2007 : the physical science basis : contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (http://www.ipcc.ch/ publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html). Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0521705967. • US National Research Council (2008). "Understanding and Responding to Climate Change" (http:// americasclimatechoices.org/climate_change_2008_final.pdf) (PDF). Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (http://dels.nas.edu/basc), US National Academy of Sciences. Retrieved 2011-04-28. • US National Research Council (2008). "Ecological Impacts of Climate Change" (http://books.nap.edu/catalog. php?record_id=12491). The National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001, USA. pp. 70. Retrieved 2010-03-13.

External links
Physical impacts
• "Climate Change" (http://www.wmo.int/pages/themes/climate/main_climate_change.php). World Meteorological Organization. • The IPCC Working Group I (WG I) website (http://www.ipcc-wg1.unibe.ch/). This body assesses the physical scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change.

Social, economic and ecological impacts
• Climate change (http://www.un.org/esa/dsd/dsd_aofw_cc/cc_index.shtml) on the United Nations Economic and Social Development (UNESD) Division for Sustainable Development website. • The IPCC Working Group II (WG II) website (http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/) – This body assesses the vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems to climate change, negative and positive consequences of climate change, and options for adapting to it.

General
• List of United Nations Functional Commissions and Expert Bodies related to climate change (http://esa.un.org/ subindex/pgViewSites.asp?termCode=QB.25) • IRIN, the humanitarian news and analysis service of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs: "What climate change does" (http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=79563), "How climate change works" (http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=79508), and "Gathering Storm - the humanitarian impact of climate change" (http://www.irinnews.org/IndepthMain.aspx?IndepthId=73&ReportId=78246) • Videos: • "Educational Forum: Arctic Climate Impact" (http://video.google.com/ videoplay?docid=4119472365452589212). Panel discussion with James J. McCarthy, Professor at Harvard

Effects of global warming University, and Author; Paul R. Epstein, M.D., instructor in medicine at Harvard Medical School; and Ross Gelbspan, Pulitzer-prize winning journalist and author. Massachusetts School of Law. • "How we know humans are changing the climate and Why climate change is a clear and present danger" (http:/ /climateprogress.org/2010/02/05/ videos-humans-are-changing-the-climate-global-warming-threat-chris-field/#more-18551). Interviews with Christopher Field and Michael MacCracken. Christopher Field is the director of the Department of Global Ecology at the Carnegie Institution of Washington, professor of biology and environmental earth system science at Stanford University, and the Working Group II Co-Chair for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Michael MacCracken is the chief scientist for Climate Change Programs at the Climate Institute and a co-author and contributing author for various chapters in the IPCC assessment reports. Climate Progress website, February 5, 2010.

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Abrupt climate change
An abrupt climate change occurs when the climate system is forced to transition to a new state at a rate that is determined by the climate system itself, and which is more rapid than the rate of change of the external forcing.[1] Past events include the end of the Carboniferous Rainforest Collapse,[2] Younger Dryas,[3] Dansgaard-Oeschger events, and possibly also the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum.[4] The term is also used within the context of global warming to describe sudden climate change that is detectable over the time-scale of a human lifetime. One proposed reason for the observed abrupt climate change is that feedback loops within the climate system both enhance small perturbations and cause a variety of stable states.[5] Timescales of events described as 'abrupt' may vary dramatically. Changes recorded in the climate of Greenland at the end of the Younger Dryas, as measured by ice-cores, imply a sudden warming of +10°C within a timescale of a few years.[6] Other abrupt changes are the +4 °C on Greenland 11,270 years ago[7] or the abrupt +6 °C warming 22 000 years ago on Antarctica.[8] By contrast, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum may have initiated anywhere between a few decades and several thousand years.

Definitions
According to the Committee on Abrupt Climate Change of the National Research Council[1] [9] : There are essentially two definitions of abrupt climate change: • In terms of physics, it is a transition of the climate system into a different mode on a time scale that is faster than the responsible forcing. • In terms of impacts, "an abrupt change is one that takes place so rapidly and unexpectedly that human or natural systems have difficulty adapting to it". These definitions are complementary: the former gives some insight into how abrupt climate change comes about ; the latter explains why there is so much research devoted to it, why it inspires catastrophe movies, and may even be the reason why you are reading this page.

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Current situation
The IPCC states that global warming "could lead to some effects that are abrupt or irreversible".[10] In an article in Science, Alley et al. said "it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the probability of large, abrupt events. Were such an event to recur, the economic and ecological impacts could be large and potentially serious."[11]

Regional changes
Lenton et al.[12] investigated tipping elements in the climate system. These were regional effects of global warming, some of which had abrupt onset and may therefore be regarded as abrupt climate change. They found that "Our synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century under anthropogenic climate change."

Ocean effects
Global oceans have established patterns of currents. Several potential disruptions to this system of currents have been identified as a result of global warming: • Increasing frequency of El Nino events.[13] [14] • Potential disruption to [15] the thermohaline circulation, such as that which may have occurred during the Younger Dryas event.[16] • Changes to the North Atlantic oscillation[17]

A summary of the path of the thermohaline circulation. Blue paths represent deep-water currents, while red paths represent surface currents

Climate feedback effects
One source of abrupt climate change effects is a feedback process, in which a warming event causes a change which leads to further warming. This can also apply to cooling. Example of such feedback processes are: • Ice-albedo feedback, where the advance or retreat of ice cover alters the 'whiteness' or the earth, and its ability to absorb the sun's energy.[18] • The dying and burning of forests, as a result of global warming.[19]

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Past events
Several periods of abrupt climate change have been identified in the paleoclimatic record. Notable examples include: • About 25 climate shifts, called Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles, which have been identified in the ice core record during the glacial period over the past 100,000 years. The most recent of these events was the Younger Dryas which began 12,900 years ago and moved back into a warm-and-wet climate regime about 11,600 years ago. • The Younger Dryas event, notably its sudden end. It has been suggest