DELPHI TECHNIQUE

SUBMITTED BY: Chandan singh Swati priya

3 2.... INTRODUCTION ................................. 15 QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS 1 .............. DELPHI TECHNIQUE IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT... REGULAR FEEDBACK .......................1 HISTORY OF DELPHI............................... 7 3.......... 2 1......... 9 6.........3.1 KEY CHARACTERISTICS .......... 7 2............................ 4 2........... APPLICATION OF DELPHI TECHNIQUE......................................................................................1.............................1 STRUCTURING OF INFORMATION FLOW ................................................1 RESEARCH APPROACH – IDENTIFYING FACTORS AND STRATEGIES ................................................................................................................... DELPHI PROCESS .............................................................DELPHI TECHNIQUE 2011 Contents 1.............................................................................................................................................................................................................. EXAMPLE OF USING THE DELPHI TECHNIQUE .................................................................. 12 7............................................................ 10 7........................................................................2.... 14 2nd Interim Workshop .....1....................................................................................... 7 3......1........................... 6 2........................ CONCLUSIONS .................................. ANONYMITY OF THE PARTICIPANTS ........................................................................1 PIVOTAL ROLE OF THE FACILITATOR ........... 11 7...................................................... 9 5................... 12 1st Interim Workshop ......... 15 8................ DEFINING DELPHI METHOD ............................................ ORGANISATION OF DELPHI SURVEY ............................. 8 4........ 6 2......1 Research Plan ............

1991.DELPHI TECHNIQUE 2011 1. Its a Technique may be defined as a unique method for arriving at a consensus opinion by experts through a process of thesis. as expert opinions are the only source of information available. California.  This approach consists of a survey conducted in two or more rounds.or stick to their previous opinion. the Delphi method was used more often especially for national science and technology foresight. the communication effect of Delphi studies and therefore the value of the process as such is also acknowledged. antithesis. The survey is done anonymously using a questionnaire (the first Delphi’s were panels). and eventual synthesis.  The Delphi method is especially useful for long-range forecasting (20-30 years). The Delphi method was originally developed in the 50s by the RAND Corporation in Santa Monica. Häder/Häder 1995) whereby the questionnaire is the medium of interaction (Martino 1983). Meanwhile. usually about the future.  It provides the participants in the second round with the results of the first so that they can alter the original assessments if they want to . Delphi studies are rather complex procedures and require some resources depending on the breadth of the study planned.  During the last ten years.  It is commonly assumed that the method makes better use of group interaction (Rowe et al. INTRODUCTION The Delphi method is a structured process for consolidating the opinions of a group of experts into a judgment on an issue. Delphi studies are processes that include  Preparation QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS 2 .

The temple was the locus of knowledge. Santa Monica. Delphi was developed in the 1950's by the Rand Corporation. some practical exercises in small groups are conducted so that the participants gain a feeling for a Delphi procedure. California.DELPHI TECHNIQUE 2011  Survey in two or more rounds  some analyses and application (implementation) when the survey is finished. The information came in from the ambassadors through their queries and the answers were written down on metal or stone plates. ordered and preserved. Delphi monastery was one of the very few spots on the earth where knowledge was accumulated. as an illumination of the 'genealogical tree' of the Delphi technique. 1. several of them found by archeologists. All three phases are important and are addressed during the course. For the preparation phase and the implementation. if we put it more mundanely.1 HISTORY OF DELPHI The Delphi method belongs to the subjective-intuitive methods of foresight. In figure 1-1. the Delphic oracle was probably the largest database of the ancient world. QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS 3 . the major steps achieved in a chronological manner are listed. in operations research. or.

DEFINING DELPHI METHOD The Delphi method is a systematic.DELPHI TECHNIQUE 2011 2. After each round. The experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts. a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS 4 .

It is best used for a fairly simple assessment of new products and developments. Therefore. are judged upon by experts. given the variableness of human opinion. There is agreement that Delphi is an expert survey in two or more 'rounds' in which in the second and later rounds of the survey the results of the previous round are given as feedback.’ QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS 5 . The uniqueness of Delphi lies in its reliability. who are mainly experts. the experts answer from the second round on under the influence of their colleagues' opinions. The goal of this method is to reach a consensus among the group by the end of this multiple-round questionnaire process. Wechsler characterises a 'Standard-Delphi-Method' in the following way: 'It is a survey which is steered by a monitor group. The Delphi method is a combination of qualitative and quantitative processes that draws mainly upon the opinions of identified experts to develop theories and projections for the future. Thus. on which naturally unsure and incomplete knowledge is available. predictive even normative elements. and in its ability to be administered remotely and without direct participant interaction. A multiple-round survey system is administered to this group over an extended period of time. the Delphi method is a 'relatively strongly structured group communication process. in which matters. comprises several rounds of a group of experts. A group of experts is drawn from several disciplines and professions. it de-livers qualitative as well as quantitative results and has beneath its explorative.DELPHI TECHNIQUE 2011 experts’ forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments The Delphi method is based on structural surveys and makes use of the intuitive available information of the participants. Therefore. who are anonymous among each other and for whose subjective-intuitive prognoses a consensus is aimed at. but it is one of the most complex methodologies available.

 Delphi are judgement processes with unsure aspects.  Especially the psychological process in connection with communication and less in the sense of mathematical models have to be stressed.  Delphi tries to make use of self-fulfilling.  Starting from the second round.  The same experts assess the same matters once more . 2.1 STRUCTURING OF INFORMATION FLOW The initial contributions from the experts are collected in the form of answers to questionnaires and their comments to these answers. Otherwise there are more efficient methods for decision making. a feedback is given (about the results of previous rounds).1 KEY CHARACTERISTICS 2.  For the participation experts are to be involved who on the basis of their knowledge and experience are able to assess in a competent way. During the rounds. Characteristics of Delphi are therefore specified as .influenced by the opinions of the other experts.  Content of Delphi studies are always issues about which unsure respectively incomplete knowledge exists. they have the opportunity to gather new information. The panel director controls the interactions among the participants by processing the information QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS 6 . The persons involved in Delphi studies only give estimations.1.DELPHI TECHNIQUE 2011 This sounds a bit complicated but the essentials are:  Delphi is an expert survey in two or more 'rounds'.

Their identity is not revealed even after the completion of the final report. While in regular group meetings participants tend to stick to previously stated opinions and often conform too much to group leader. the Delphi method prevents it.DELPHI TECHNIQUE 2011 and filtering out irrelevant content.1.) do I have?  Is Delphi the right choice? QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS 7 .3. Before starting. At any moment they can revise their earlier statements. 2. REGULAR FEEDBACK Participants comment on their own forecasts.2. you should answer the following questions:  What is my objective?  How many resources (manpower. 2.. minimizes the "bandwagon effect" or "halo effect". This avoids the negative effects of face-toface panel discussions and solves the usual problems of group dynamics.1.. frees them to some extent from their personal biases. DELPHI PROCESS There are certainly different possibilities to organise a Delphi process. encourages open critique and admitting errors by revising earlier judgments 3. money. This stops them from dominating others in the process using their authority or personality. allows them to freely express their opinions. ANONYMITY OF THE PARTICIPANTS Usually all participants maintain anonymity. the responses of others and on the progress of the panel as a whole.

Participants complete the first questionnaire anonymously and independently. as to whether each breakthrough will occur earlier or later than predicted by the other participants. Ask participants to provide potential solutions through a series of carefully designed questionnaires 3. collect the responses. Wherever consensus is missing. 2.DELPHI TECHNIQUE 2011  How can I formulate the statements?  What are my questions? The essential steps in a traditional anonymous Delphi study are as follows: 1. Articulate a problem. 6. The results of the first questionnaire are tabulated. the facilitator initiates the process of thesis and antithesis. They may make new estimates. 3. study the individual reports to ascertain the areas of commonality and the areas of divergence. reproduced. members submit new solutions. 7. transcribed. as explained earlier and strives to create a synthesis for final acceptance by all. 5. often based on a 50-50 probability. After reviewing.1 PIVOTAL ROLE OF THE FACILITATOR It is the responsibility of the facilitator to distribute the questionnaires. and forwarded to each participant. The submission of new solutions based on reiterations of the questionnaire process is repeated until the participants reach a consensus. QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS 8 . 4.

Widely practiced for forecasting in business circles. ORGANISATION OF DELPHI SURVEY The first step is to found a steering committee (if you need one) and a management team with sufficient capacities for the process. The whole procedure has to be fixed in advance The last organisational point is the interface with the financing organisation if this is different from the management team. Then expert panels to prepare and formulate the statements are helpful unless it is decided to let that be done by the management team.DELPHI TECHNIQUE 2011 4. QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS 9 . APPLICATION OF DELPHI TECHNIQUE • • Used in the field of science and technology for forecasting. 5.

The responses from all experts are typically combined in the form of an overall QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS 10 . such as while estimating. is solicited. Typically. it reduces the tacit and complex knowledge to a single statement and makes it possible to judge upon. participants are not influenced by others taking part in the process. It is common to use expert opinion in project activities. Then. which is typically. DELPHI TECHNIQUE IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT The Delphi Technique is an essential project management technique that refers to an information gathering technique in which the opinions of those whose opinions are most valuable. education. Hence. but not always. in hopes of eliciting new ideas regarding specific project points. traditionally industry experts. The experts are presented with a series of questions in regards to the project. that they reach a consensus. 6. Project manager can channel expert by using the Delphi Method. with the ultimate hope and goal of attaining a consensus. The Delphi method is mainly used when long-term issues have to be assessed. in hopes of attaining opinions that are unfettered by fears or identifiability. you can make an informed decision. the participants do not know who the other participants are. As it is a procedure to identify statements (topics) that are relevant for the future. and project management. presented to the expert by a third-party facilitator. the polling of these industry experts is done on an anonymous basis. and it is used to forecast economic trends.DELPHI TECHNIQUE 2011 • A tool in several areas including health. A key point to note about the Delphi Technique is that while gathering thoughts. • Widely accepted as a decision-making tool and has been used successfully in many areas.

or force that result in an increase in pollution. quality. 7. and this technique typically helps minimize bias. EXAMPLE OF USING THE DELPHI TECHNIQUE Is CNG a viable option for Delhi’s growing traffic and pollution problem?  Identify factors contributing to increase in pollution o List issues. The Delhi Method (Technique) is a recommended for Quality. etc.  Identify possible strategies and methods to reduce pollution o Draft General plan or direction selected to accomplish pollution reduction  Assess possible impact of different strategies and methods on pollution reduction and traffic problems based on (cost.)  Develop guidelines and recommendations QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS 11 . causes. and minimizes the possibility that any one person can have too much influence on the outcomes. Delphi method is used in:   Risk Management: For identifying risks and quantifying risks. procedures. performance. Risk and Time Management. which is then provided to the experts for a review and for the opportunity to make further comments. This process typically results in consensus within a number of rounds.DELPHI TECHNIQUE 2011 summary. Time Management: For estimating stories or work activities. safety.

1 RESEARCH APPROACH – IDENTIFYING FACTORS AND STRATEGIES QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS 12 .DELPHI TECHNIQUE 2011 7.1 Research Plan 7.

Conduct in rounds  Analyze responses and request re-assessment over at least two rounds  Complete when responses converge  Final analysis and rank order Method Step 1: Determine and formulate the questions Step 2: Select experts QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS 13 .DELPHI TECHNIQUE 2011 Delhi Method Steps followed in Delphi Methods  Proven research methodology  Solicit subjective assessments  Group of knowledgeable and experienced professionals  Assess a series of questions .

The topic of the questionnaire is “Assessment viability that is CNG a viable option for Delhi’s growing traffic and pollution problem.DELPHI TECHNIQUE 2011 Step 3: Formulate the first questionnaire Step 4: Analyse the answers to the first questionnaire  Questionnaire sent to all participants  First Round response: 29 Participants  Second Round response: 24 Participants  Group included consultants of the following divisions: o environmentalists o traffic officers o drivers and commmuters Step 5: Formulate subsequent questionnaires Step 6: Summarize the results FIRST ROUND.No Methods to cut the pollution 1 2 3 Awareness of renewable sources Effects of of cng over conventional fuel Causes of pollution in Delhi Votes 4 5 6 Rank 3 2 1 QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS 14 . Please fill the information below (tick the appropriate boxes) and send it as a reply to our internet message” 1st Interim Workshop Delphi Analysis Result Cost Sl. Formal introduction Thank you for participating in this questionnaire which is through internet and verbal medium.

CONCLUSIONS Based on the work shop the following conclusions were drawn The panel had better idea about the causes of pollution and there is strong need of some clean source of fuel but there are concerns of the infrastructure and technology support which will be provided to the users.DELPHI TECHNIQUE 2011 Out of the survey it was found that maximum people knew about the causes of pollution in Delhi and very few people had an idea about the sources of renewable energy. The cost benefit analysis of cng as option came out to be the most efficient alternative fuel. 2nd Interim Workshop Main factors to be considered for introducing CNG in delhi traffic  fuelling centres infrastructure  maintenances of new technology  cost benefit analysis of the new facility 8. QUALITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS 15 .

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