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capital IT keynote 2005 - the next game in telecommunication 2010

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Capital IT, Par is 2005 keynote

the next game in telecoms?
trends, shifts & fir st glance scenar ios
Daniel Er asmus (daniel@dtn.net)
the DTN (www.dtn.net) & the RSM (www.r sm.nl)
Apr il 2005

m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w . d t n . n e t 2 0 0 5 ) , p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . n e t ) D T N

capital IT keynote 2005 - the next game in telecommunication 2010+

a new space

the future

scenarios

challenges
m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w . d t n . n e t 2 0 0 5 ) , p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . n e t ) D T N

capital IT keynote 2005 - the next game in telecommunication 2010+

Is it a room full of
fast computers,
video on demand,
high Internet use,
the
e-commerce
limits
of planning
m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w . d t n . n e t 2 0 0 5 ) , p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . n e t ) D T N

capital IT keynote 2005 - the next game in telecommunication 2010+

we need to
break through the
false security,
offered to us by visions
of a singular future,
where we type 19.2 into
our spreadsheets certain
in the fact that we have
dealt with uncertainty...

m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w . d t n . n e t 2 0 0 5 ) , p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . n e t ) D T N

capital IT keynote 2005 - the next game in telecommunication 2010+

9/11
rise of WiFi
who
would have
delay of 3G
guessed:
the rise/fall of the internet
recession of early 2000's

m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w . d t n . n e t 2 0 0 5 ) , p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . n e t ) D T N

Nokia Choices stories that could happen Is it a room fullusof & surprise scenarios fast computers. d t n . e-commerce our assumptions they help us prepare for the unthinkable c o p y r i g h t D a n i e l E r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . n e t 2 0 0 5 D T N . introduction to scenario thinking . n e t ) w e b : w w w . if this happens? they are meant to high Internet challenge are: use. the trick is not to ask if they will happen but. video on what we do demand.

the next game in telecommunication 2010+ the official future in mobile telephony in 2004 reduce costs to match the new discount competition world with lower margins differentiate from competitors by combining services. capital IT keynote 2005 . p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . subscription and handsets in a easy-to-use. strongly branded package disruptive technologies are coming – but very uncertain when and with what impact a new space the future being too early to market is very expensive scenarios challenges m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w . n e t ) D T N . n e t 2 0 0 5 ) . d t n .

p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . d t n . n e t ) D T N . capital IT keynote 2005 . the next game in telecommunication 2010+ a new space is emerging m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w . n e t 2 0 0 5 ) .

d t n . capital IT keynote 2005 . n e t 2 0 0 5 ) . p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . n e t ) D T N . the next game in telecommunication 2010+ a new space is emerging a new space the future scenarios challenges m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w .

capital IT keynote 2005 . n e t 2 0 0 5 ) . d t n . n e t ) D T N . p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . etc) Usage of new non-voice services in European market Internet distribution Substitute technologies leading to open network competition a new space International consolidation mobile industry Handset technology the future Fixed – mobile migration Customer demand for increased simplicity and availability scenarios Industry structure (operator brand value?) challenges m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w . the next game in telecommunication 2010+ driving forces Maturing market means lower prices Stricter regulations Increasing interdependence between operators and third parties (services. content.

the next game in telecommunication 2010+ DF: maturing market means lower prices With more than 80% of the people in most European countries using mobile phones. n e t 2 0 0 5 ) . capital IT keynote 2005 . n e t ) D T N . a new space the future scenarios challenges m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w .which means much lower prices in the long run. d t n . the market for mobile voice service is maturing. p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n .

because of their excessive investment in 3G. capital IT keynote 2005 . challenges m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w . Secondly the dominant player in specific regions are selling space a new space on their advanced networks. Slow adoption of new services will scenarios only strengthen the smaller players position. n e t 2 0 0 5 ) . and do not have the resources or freedom to go into a massive acquisition drive. Alternatively the larger players. d t n . to secure additional sources of the future revenue. are still in financial difficulties. struggling with the investment required to deliver next generation services could lead to market consolidation. Therefore the significant barriers to entry that smaller players had in offering advanced services are reduced. the next game in telecommunication 2010+ DF: international consolidation in mobile industry Globalisation.leading to less drive for consolidation. and increasing market liberalisation in telecoms services will lead to greater “cross border” competition. n e t ) D T N . p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . This increased pressure on existing players in smaller markets.

capital IT keynote 2005 . Aside from the possibility of health concerns there is 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% little to indicate that this trend will not 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 continue. n e t 2 0 0 5 ) . d t n . the next game in telecommunication 2010+ DF: move from fixed to mobile telephony Mobile's share of total voice 100% 90% 80% There is a steady move from fixed 70% 60% telephony to mobile telephony. p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . 25000 20000 a new space 15000 Traffic originating in the future the mobile network 10000 Traffic originating in the fixed network 5000 scenarios 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 challenges m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w . n e t ) D T N .

n e t 2 0 0 5 ) . fundamentally. p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . The space was bought as a licence and optimally managed in which users bought access to this network. the next game in telecommunication 2010+ New Space: closed to open networks Traditionally telecommunication companies have competed by efficiently managing restricted space. d t n . capital IT keynote 2005 . a new space Open technologies.by the minute. and open access the future networks changes this equation. What is the business model scenarios for operators in the future? challenges m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w . n e t ) D T N .

the future Will the ubiquitous WiFi networks work together or as separate islands? scenarios challenges m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w . the next game in telecommunication 2010+ New Space: ubiquitous WiFi The cost of WiFi chip has now dropped to U$5. n e t 2 0 0 5 ) . With 12 000 base stations across Europe and a provider like the Cloud experiencing 5-7% usage growth per week we see a vast a new space bottom-up network emerging. n e t ) D T N . which means that we can expect WiFi capabilities to be inserted into everything. p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . capital IT keynote 2005 . d t n .

n e t 2 0 0 5 ) . the next game in telecommunication 2010+ New Space: edge intelligence Intelligence used to be in the network. We are now seeing increased intelligence in the device and that the routing is done by intelligence embedded in the network (eg. d t n . p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . for example large hierarchical switch networks that route calls. n e t ) D T N . capital IT keynote 2005 . TCP/IP) a new space How will a network then be valued in the the future future? scenarios challenges m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w .

desktop video. There is a critical confluence of technologies. How will this new rush of innovation in a new space type of media. cheap the future access and cheap storage drive usage patterns in 2005-1010? scenarios challenges m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w . n e t 2 0 0 5 ) . capital IT keynote 2005 . n e t ) D T N . broadband. Wiki's. d t n . the next game in telecommunication 2010+ New Space: bottom up boom We are entering the second wave of the Internet. open source and the Internet Archive. breadth of content. WiFi. p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . blogging.

With storage technology becomming this cheap are we not talking of a mobile internet facilitating access to content already stored versus downloading content to a device. n e t 2 0 0 5 ) . p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . d t n . a new space the future scenarios challenges m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w . the next game in telecommunication 2010+ New Space: download or access? Today an iPod can record your entire life. n e t ) D T N . capital IT keynote 2005 .

n e t 2 0 0 5 ) . n e t ) D T N . capital IT keynote 2005 . p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . the next game in telecommunication 2010+ the scenarios a new space the future scenarios challenges m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w . d t n .

and external interviews to build the initial set of scenarios. n e t 2 0 0 5 ) . The process used workshops. internal. p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . capital IT keynote 2005 . desk research. a summary of which are listed below. d t n . n e t ) D T N . the next game in telecommunication 2010+ industry views During 2004 Telenor built a First Glance Scenario Set to get a first view of the uncer tainties associated with the next paradigm in mobile telephony. m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w .

capital IT keynote 2005 . p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . d t n . n e t 2 0 0 5 ) . the next game in telecommunication 2010+ Strategic Processes: A Systemic View Inside-Out: Combining people processes and Outside-In: systems to Building scenarios to produce value describe possible future business environments contextual environment Structurally Understanding the understanding systems in the transactional environment the uncertainties organisation and match in the business policy & strategic environment moves to the scenarios Organisation + - degree of influence m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w . n e t ) D T N .

n e t 2 0 0 5 ) . d t n . the next game in telecommunication 2010+ Scenario Thinking: Systemic Methodology pick scenario issue research 2003+ events 2003 driving force driving force driving force enablers inhibitors 03 20 why? driving driving force 10 forces 20 understand the build systems build the systems driving forces diagram scenarios from the axes m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w . n e t ) D T N . p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . capital IT keynote 2005 .

n e t ) D T N . d t n . n e t 2 0 0 5 ) . p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . capital IT keynote 2005 . the next game in telecommunication 2010+ the next game in the focal question telecoms: how and to whom do people relate when it comes to satisfying communication needs in 2010? a new space the future scenarios 2010 challenges m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w .

the next game in telecommunication 2010+ key uncertainty: use of new sevices evolutionary usage of new services revolutionary + + + third generation infrastructure data volume on third generation infrastructure 2004 2009 2004 2009 m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w . d t n . n e t ) D T N . capital IT keynote 2005 . p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . n e t 2 0 0 5 ) .

n e t ) D T N . n e t 2 0 0 5 ) . the next game in telecommunication 2010+ key uncertainty: industry structure end user industry structure portal role portal role content producer. content host content host new systemintegrator. p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . content aggregator operator systemintegrator role business dominates service provider . application developer.and structures service provider transaction support role MVNO & network operator role interconnect infrastructure role network operator m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w . capital IT keynote 2005 . d t n .

the next game in telecommunication 2010+ operator dominates industry structure big bright evolution usage of new services revolution cheap fast new business structures m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w . n e t 2 0 0 5 ) . p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . capital IT keynote 2005 . d t n . n e t ) D T N .

n e t 2 0 0 5 ) . n e t ) D T N . p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . the next game in telecommunication 2010+ operator dominates industry structure big bright evolution usage of new services revolution cheap fast new business structures m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w . d t n . capital IT keynote 2005 .

n e t ) D T N . p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . the next game in telecommunication 2010+ bright m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w . n e t 2 0 0 5 ) . capital IT keynote 2005 . d t n .

the next game in telecommunication 2009? bright video streaming on mobile takes off old hyped predictions come true – 5 years later mobile operator integrates banking services scenario keywords “U” in UMTS gets real seamless roaming in the entire world is made possible young users love PAN – wireless personal area networks no matter what carrier – operator integrates stand-alone WiFi operators never succeeded material prepared by the DTN (info@dtn.dtn.net) web: www.net 2003 .

n e t ) w e b : w w w . 3G & WiFi UMTS used in other products (cars. t h e n e x t g a m e i n t e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n 2 0 0 9 ? operator dominates bright industry structure big bright Football World Cup evolution usage of new services revolution in 2006 Video streaming takes off cheap fast Exponential data new business structures Mobile file sharing growth Price drives UMTS communities (PANs) take-up in Nordic market 30% subscribers with UMTS Corporate demand Increased operator for bandwidth on profitability the move UMTS network costs low (25% GSM) Operator integrates 2G.) global markets integrate Heavy third party Open garden integration model 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 D T N m a t e r i a l p r e p a r e d b y t h e D T N ( i n f o @ d t n . etc. d t n . n e t 2 0 0 4 .

d t n .09 Orange Pay-online Fixed fee Private+ March 2009 EUR 130 Please confirm by pressing ”Yes” m a t e r i a l p r e p a r e d b y t h e D T N ( i n f o @ d t n . n e t ) w e b : w w w . t h e n e x t g a m e i n t e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n 2 0 0 9 ? how and to whom does the customer relate: Orange 01. n e t 2 0 0 3 .apr.

n e t ) D T N . n e t 2 0 0 5 ) . p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . capital IT keynote 2005 . the next game in telecommunication 2010+ operator dominates industry structure big bright evolution usage of new services revolution cheap fast new business structures m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w . d t n .

the next game in telecommunication 2010+ fast m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w . n e t 2 0 0 5 ) . capital IT keynote 2005 . d t n . n e t ) D T N . p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n .

x is standard scenario keywords TeliaSonera establish their “TS Wireless division” with all wireless services (2G.net) web: www.3G. 10-50 times faster than UMTS all buildings get Wifi then WMAX handsets with 802.dtn.net 2003 . the next game in telecommunication 2009? fast users wants wireless broadband. Wlan etc) email and voice telephony converge s tan dar dis ation of 3G in th r e e in compatible dir e ction s ! VoI P make s U MT S ir r e le van t real competition on mobile infrastructure material prepared by the DTN (info@dtn.

n e t ) w e b : w w w . t h e n e x t g a m e i n t e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n 2 0 0 9 ? operator dominates fast industry structure big bright evolution usage of new services revolution cheap fast UMTS perceived as slow and old VoIP takes voice revenues new business structures WiFI takes data revenues Operators implement radical cost cutting in voice and data rates Laptops and handsets with WiFi IT and communications MSN and AOL Independent WiFI operators converge become significant increase coverage players in telephony Competing carrier infrastructures in place IP telephony (and Customers used data services) is Growth of fixed to large media preferred broadband access/ transfers at high use bandwidth 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 D T N m a t e r i a l p r e p a r e d b y t h e D T N ( i n f o @ d t n . d t n . n e t 2 0 0 4 .

n e t 2 0 0 3 . n e t ) w e b : w w w . t h e n e x t g a m e i n t e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n 2 0 0 9 ? how and to whom does the customer relate: WISP m a t e r i a l p r e p a r e d b y t h e D T N ( i n f o @ d t n . d t n .

capital IT keynote 2005 . n e t ) D T N . p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . d t n . the next game in telecommunication 2010+ operator dominates industry structure big bright evolution usage of new services revolution cheap fast new business structures m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w . n e t 2 0 0 5 ) .

n e t 2 0 0 5 ) . p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . d t n . capital IT keynote 2005 . the next game in telecommunication 2010+ cheap m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w . n e t ) D T N .

dtn. the next game in telecommunication 2009? UMTS increases price competition – not service uptake radical cost-cutting again and again Infrastructure. retail brands or wholesale volumes? slow uptake of new services standardisation of 3G in three incompatible directions price. price material prepared by the DTN (info@dtn.a pot of gold for Service Providers scenario keywords service providers aggressive growth network operators face dilemma.net 2003 .net) web: www. . price.

Cross border service providers are sucessful + Service providers break into new Strong price focus georgraphical in media markets Stricter regulations on retention and subsidising Increased fixed mobile integration 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 D T N m a t e r i a l p r e p a r e d b y t h e D T N ( i n f o @ d t n . n e t ) w e b : w w w . "discount prices Demand increases dramatically. d t n . n e t 2 0 0 4 . t h e n e x t g a m e i n t e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n 2 0 0 9 ? operator dominates cheap industry structure big bright evolution usage of new services revolution UMTS increasers cheap fast network capacity Lower prices to encourage uptake new business structures Both access costs number portability Operators and price fall respond with dramatically.

d t n . t h e n e x t g a m e i n t e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n 2 0 0 9 ? how and to whom does the customer relate: m a t e r i a l p r e p a r e d b y t h e D T N ( i n f o @ d t n . n e t 2 0 0 3 . n e t ) w e b : w w w .

the next game in telecommunication 2010+ operator dominates industry structure big bright evolution usage of new services revolution cheap fast new business structures m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w . p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . n e t 2 0 0 5 ) . d t n . n e t ) D T N . capital IT keynote 2005 .

capital IT keynote 2005 . d t n . n e t ) D T N . n e t 2 0 0 5 ) . the next game in telecommunication 2010+ big m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w . p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n .

d t n . n e t ) w e b : w w w . t h e n e x t g a m e i n t e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n 2 0 0 9 ? operator dominates big industry structure big bright evolution usage of new services revolution cheap fast big operator buys small operator – consolidation new business structures radical cost-cutting in the beginning operator has increased power scenario keywords smaller players increasingly dependent on third party and alliances differences in value proposition between service provider and operator becomes clearer slow uptake of new ser vices s t a n d a r d i s a t i o n o f 3 G i n t h r e e i n c o m p a t i b l e d i r e c t i o n s service providers are going out of business 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 D T N m a t e r i a l p r e p a r e d b y t h e D T N ( i n f o @ d t n . n e t 2 0 0 4 .

n e t 2 0 0 4 . d t n . t h e n e x t g a m e i n t e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n 2 0 0 9 ? operator dominates big industry structure big bright evolution usage of new services revolution Operators share networks and cheap fast technologies consolidation in new business structures the market Small margins on new services low uptake of data services Block of operators emerge that Scale is all compete with each Reduction of price to important other drive use Retention driven subsidising Fixed revenues Operators keep deterioate control on subscribers and user interface Increased fixed mobile integration Customers prefer convenience and integration 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 D T N m a t e r i a l p r e p a r e d b y t h e D T N ( i n f o @ d t n . n e t ) w e b : w w w .

45 67 88 99 Flg.00 Beløbet indeholder ikke dansk moms. Kontonr. 7600-1163492.: 26 38 75 58 TelMore Invoice no 332.342.00 Beløbet bedes indbetalt på vedlagte girokort Til intern brug eller overført til nedenstående bank.seddel Antall Beskrivelse Enhetspris I ALT 1000 Voice minutes kr 0. Subtotal kr 1 185. t h e n e x t g a m e i n t e l e c o m m u n i c a t i o n 2 0 0 9 ? how and to whom does the customer relate: Cvr. whatever your needs.00 1 Fixed month-fee kr 800. Wherever you are.00 Forsendelse Betaling Moms 25.00 500 Mb transfer kr 0. d t n .00% Betaling senest I ALT kr 1 185.35 Dato 4/4/09 Name Kari Nordmann Ordrenr.25 kr 125.00 1 Invoice provision kr 130. Ibankontonummer: DK8376000001163492.00 kr 130.00 kr 120. Bank: Vestjysk Bank.00 1 Voice mail recognition 1 Roaming kr 120.00 kr 800.nr. Address Sælger Tel. 7500 Holstebro. Vestergade 1. Modtagers momsnummer: Husk venligst at anmode bank om at modtager ikke betaler bankgebyr i Norge. convenience from m a t e r i a l p r e p a r e d b y t h e D T N ( i n f o @ d t n . n e t ) w e b : w w w . Swiftkode VEHODK22. n e t 2 0 0 3 .01 kr 10.

d t n . p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . n e t ) D T N . n e t 2 0 0 5 ) . the next game in telecommunication 2010+ operator dominates industry structure big bright evolution usage of new services revolution cheap fast new business structures m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w . capital IT keynote 2005 .

or services at no. the next game in telecommunication 2010+ operator dominates strategic challenges & user industry structure big bright requirements evolution usage of new services revolution cheap fast new business structures Cheap Big Bright Fast simplicity and convenient new User requirement cheap voice choice convenience services globalisation transition to substitution and much lower Strategic challenge (eat or be new networks competing in prices eaten) and services open networks "best of class" compelling win-win next generation Entrepreneurial services. d t n . n e t 2 0 0 5 ) . p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . capital IT keynote 2005 . dealmaking with services in a challenge inventing a new cost large operators "walled garden" class m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w . n e t ) D T N .

user experiences disappointment advertising Displays/keyboards display technology input technologies (soft) voice memory device Specialist systems integrator POS device Mobile games dev. oss) Mobile Virtual Network usability/personalisation the Mobile Internet in Operators Professional content scenarios (big brother. services. n e t ) D T N . savvy operator Not the Mobile Internet Safe Haven Example: (incumbent) a new space storage (disks. d t n . p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . rather than react to it few players nimble. n e t 2 0 0 5 ) . playboy) 2007 made during industry mobile media advertising workshops in 2002 Waiting for Godot content re-purposing service Mesh network end user pack Mobile Mania challenges many players m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w . multimedia index database marketing (tools and services) mobile anti-virus techn. the next game in telecommunication 2010+ challenges entrepreneurs: develop business cases that will be successful in all the scenarios investors: develop a portfolio of investments that anticipate all the scenarios find early indicators that tell you which scenario will happen. 3G infrastructure user experiences delight P2P payment security (tech) Investment Opportunities in DRMs vendors server-side geo- Device centric browser localization campaign management (tools & services) 2* display payment platforms CMR software railway/plane internet billing vendors sp (size / 3D / power) 3G & LAN integration access low power DAB MVNO in a box outsourcing (II. sps) energy devices (batteries) Scenario Map of Image management distribution the future mobile media user interface. capital IT keynote 2005 . to anticipate the future.

n e t ) D T N . the next game in telecommunication 2010+ m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w . capital IT keynote 2005 . n e t 2 0 0 5 ) . p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . d t n .

p r e s e n t e d b y d a n i e l e r a s m u s ( d a n i e l @ d t n . capital IT keynote 2005 . d t n . n e t 2 0 0 5 ) . n e t info@dtn. the next game in telecommunication 2010+ D T N The DTN To m o r r o w i s a d i f f e r e n t w o r l d . Prinsengracht 707 1017 JW Amsterdam The Netherlands h t t p : / / w w w. d t n .net m a t e r i a l c o p y r i g h t t h e D T N ( w w w . n e t ) D T N .