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(Global Economy) Japan's economy shrank 3.7% in the first quarter of 2011.
(Indian Economy) Food inflation slipped to 7.47% for the week ended May 7.
(Economic Calendar)
Global Economy
Housing starts in the US fell 11% to 523,000 as flooding and tornadoes Hong Kong’s economy expanded 7.2%, more than forecast, in the
in the South shut down construction sites and homebuilders first quarter from a year earlier, compared with a revised 6.4% gain
continued to struggle almost two years into an economic recovery. in the fourth quarter, as the government wrestled with accelerating
However, new jobless claims declined by 29,000 to 409,000 in the inflation and threat of a property bubble.
week ended May 14. Investment spending in emerging markets is outpacing expenditures
UK house prices increased 0.3% on average in April (MoM). in developed economies for the first time, as a surge in
However, inflation accelerated 4.5% in April, more than economists infrastructure supports global growth. The biggest investment boom
forecast. This rise was the fastest since October 2008 as low interest of recent decades will help boost expansion worldwide about 4%
rates have started to fuel inflation. Earlier in the week, the Bank of this year and next, compared with a long – run average of just
England voted 6 – 3 to keep interest rate son hold again this month. below 3%. International Monetary Fund data show investment will
Japan’s economy shrank 3.7% (annualized) in the first quarter of top 24% of global gross domestic product in 2012, the most in more
2011, following a revised 3% drop in the previous quarter as the than two decades, and then rise above 25%, the highest since records
disruptions caused by the earthquake and tsunami disrupted began 30 years ago.
production and prompted consumers to cut back spending. Capital
investment dropped 0.9% while consumer spending fell 0.6% in the
January – March quarter compared to the previous quarter.
Indian Economy
The government plans to carry out an economic census next year to The new Consumer Price Index introduced earlier this year stood
assess the impact of economic reforms on various industries and at 106 points in April, the same level as March & against the base
to formulate policies better. The census would involve collection of of 100 in 2010, the exact inflation figures would only be released
data from entrepreneurial units in the country. Data on sectoral from next year. The general indices for rural and urban consumers
activity of the unit, number of workers, social group of the owner, stood at 108 and 105 points, respectively, in April. Continuing on its
female owned enterprise among others would be collected for micro downward trajectory, food inflation in the country slipped further
level planning and policy formulations with respect to various to 7.47% for the week ended May 7 on the back of cheaper pulses,
economic activities. vegetables and wheat. The latest numbers are likely to bring cheer
According to PM’s economic advisory panel if the monsoon is normal, to the government which has termed inflation control as one of the
then food inflation will come down. However, fuel prices could go major items on its agenda. During the week under review, pulses
up. Allowing for some increase in fuel prices, inflation could come became cheaper by 8.87% (YoY), while prices of vegetables were
down to 6.5% by the end of this fiscal. down by 3.61%. Overall, primary articles reported 10.94% inflation.
Enthused by a good tax collection in 2010 – 11 fiscal, India’s Central Meanwhile, non-food primary articles were up 23.82% during the
Board of Direct Taxes has fixed its collection target for 2011 – 12 at week under review.
INR.5.3 tn. In 2010 – 11, it has achieved the budget target of INR.4.46
tn against the original budget target of INR.4.3 tn. In 2010 – 11, it has
made around 85 lakh refunds, amounting to nearly INR 74 bn.
Headline Inflation by WPI (%) (Apr’11) INR Exchange Rate (As on May 20, 2011)
Annualized Rate Annualized Rate Change Change
Current 1 Week 1 Year
(current) (last month) Weekly annual
Headline Inflation USD 44.93 44.79 0.31% 44.99 -0.13%
8.66 8.98
(WPI) GBP 72.92 73.19 -0.37% 66.91 8.98%
Internals Euro 64.34 63.59 1.17% 56.98 12.92%
Yen 54.99 54.18 1.47% 48.18 14.13%
Primary Products 12.05 12.96
Debt Market Yields (%)
Fuel Power and
13.32 12.92 10 year Gilt 8.34
Lubricants
Manufactured 1 Year Gilt 8.09
6.18 6.21 Source: CCIL
Goods
Source: CCIL
(Million Barrels)
1600 50 390
110
1500 45
380
370
1400 40 100
Silver ($/OZ)
Gold ($/OZ)
Price (USD)
360
1300 35
Inventory
90 350
1200 30
340
1100 25 80
330
1000 20
320
70
900 15 310
800 10 60 300
May-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Apr-11
Silver Gold Inventory Crude Oil
USD / AUD
0.0115
USD / EUR
0.95
1.35
USD / GBP
1.6 0.9
1.3 0.011
1.55 0.85
1.25 0.0105
0.8
1.5
1.2 0.01
0.75
1.15 1.45
0.0095 0.7
1.1 1.4 May-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Apr-11
May-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 USD / JPY USD / AUD
Economic Calendar
India US
Date Event Period Prior Date Event Period Prior
26-May Food Articles WPI YoY 14-May 7.47% 24-May New Home Sales APR 300K
26-May Fuel Power Light WPI YoY 14-May 12.11% 25-May House Price Index MoM MAR -1.6%
26-May Primary Articles WPI YoY 14-May 10.94% 25-May House Price Purchase Index 1Q -0.8%
26-May GDP QoQ (Annualized) 1Q S 1.8%
26-May GDP Price Index 1Q S 1.9%
26-May Initial Jobless Claims 21-May 409K
26-May Continuing Claims 14-May 3711K
27-May Personal Income APR 0.5%
27-May Personal Spending APR 0.6%
27-May U. of Michigan Confidence MAY F 72.4
27-May Pending Home Sales (YoY) APR -11.5%
Nikkei-225 9,607.10 -0.4% Consumption, Initial Jobless Claims, Personal Spending, Personal Income.
NSE NIFTY 5,486.40 -1.1% IT (+0.4%) gained marginally, while Bankex (-3.4%), Metals (-1.8%), Auto (-1.2%)
ended negative. On the BSE100 index, LT gained 8.1% in the week after
BSE MIDCAP 6,756.40 -2.1%
announcement of good results. Mundraport also gained 7.1%.ON the losing
BSE SMALL CAP 8,185.20 -2.2%
front were SBI and ONGC. SBI lost due to poor quarterly numbers while ONGC
Sectoral Indices
faces subsidy burden in the coming quarters. DII activity was muted during
BSE AUTO 9,113.10 -1.2% the week, while FIIs continued heavy selling in cash as well as future market.
BSE METALS 15,121.10 -1.8% Data to watch next week: Food Articles WPI YoY, Fuel Power Light WPI YoY,
BSE BANKEX 12,158.60 -3.4% Primary Articles WPI YoY.
BSE 127.3 and stock futures over the last few weeks. Results to watch in the coming week:
GAIL, BHEL, KFA, Tata Global, DLF, Hindpetro, Tata Motors, GSPL, Tech
NSE CASH 492.4
Mahindra.
NSE F&O 4442.5
Institutional Activity in INR Bn (Weekly)
FII -10.4
DIIs -0.1
5,000,000
close (20.63). In the week VIX touched low of 18.42 and high of 21.97.
3,000,000
5400
5500
5600
5800
6000
6100
6200
5200
5700
5900
(1,000,000) while open interest in the put options is highest at 5400, 5500, 5300 strike
Strike
prices, suggesting 5300-6000 to be the trading zone for Nifty index in short
Call Option
Change in OI
4,000,000
Put Option
term.
3,000,000
1,000,000
0
5200
5300
5400
5500
5700
6000
6100
5600
5800
5900
6200
(1,000,000)
Top 5 Price Gainers
(2,000,000)
SCRIPS % Change - Price %Change - Volume % Change
Strike
Cash Future Cash Future in OI
LT 8.10% 7.88% 206.01% 150.49% -5.14%
Cement SRTRANSFIN 7.27% 7.05% 45.73% 99.50% 39.26%
CapitalGoods
PANTALOONR 7.35% 6.90% -17.18% 446.37% 5.58%
IT
Pharma
MUNDRAPORT 7.05% 6.82% 41.86% -4.17% 2.26%
Sec tors
Power
Cash Future Cash Future in OI
PATNI -12.13% -12.73% 475.73% 245.31% 30.13%
50%
150%
250%
-100%
-50%
0%
100%
200%
300%
0.8
0.78 Price Open Interest (Delivery Based)
0.76
GTL -0.79% 3.62% 2431.98%
0.74
0.72 COREPROTEC -0.83% 11.19% 1473.78%
0.7 DIVISLAB 2.98% 58.64% 1374.82%
17-May
18-May
16-May
19-May
20-May
Technical Analysis
(Source: Iris)
Conclusion
Last week Nifty shut on a negative note @ 5486.35, down by 59 points from the previous week's close. Technically Nifty on weekly chart
has formed hammer candle stick pattern, which shows sideways to positive sentiment in coming sessions. Nifty spot on weekly has
opened high at 5542 and made a low of 5401 and then finally closed negative at 5486. Stochastics and the RSI are slightly oversold
signaling that buying pressure at support levels are possible short-term. The close below the 65 day moving average (5600) indicates the
short term trend could be turning sideways. Stochastics trending lower at midrange will tend to reinforce a move higher especially if
support levels are taken out. The market setup is somewhat sideways trend with trading range between 5400-5600. The next area of
resistance is around 5600-5675. So Nifty appears to be sideways trading on weekly chart having supports at 5400-5350 levels. For short
term trading long positions, stop loss of 5395 is advisable.
Weekly Nifty has resistance at 5600-5675 and supports at 5400-5350.
Weekly Bank Nifty has resistance at 10865-11000 and supports at 10400-10180.
Weekly Recommendations
• OVL entered into a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Uzbekneftegaz (UNG), the national oil company of Uzbekistan for
joint cooperation in the upstream E&P sector of Uzbekistan as well as third countries. The MoU provides for the formation of Joint
Working Group consisting of experts from both the companies for identifying specific oil and gas fields in Uzbekistan and the areas
in third countries for E&P activities through joint cooperation.
Information Technology
• 3i Infotech Ltd. has sold its US-based Global Billing and Payments Unit to an affiliate of Cerberus Capital Management LLP for INR
6.17 bn (USD 137 mn).
• MphasiS Ltd. might have a difficult FY11 (Calendar Year November – October) as its US parent and largest shareholder Hewlett
Packard (HP) has cut its sales forecast for the full year ending October 2011. HP owns nearly 60.53% stake in MphasiS and is the
latter’s largest business client.
• Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. (TCS) will adopt IFRS accounting standard from the current fiscal (FY12).
• Fifteen Indian steel and mining companies, shortlisted by the Afghan government for grant of mining licences at Hajigak, are likely to
form two consortiums —led by SAIL and NMDC-- for bidding. Hajigak has an estimated 1.8 billion tonnes of high quality magnetite
with 62-63% iron (Fe) content.
• Coal India today overtakes ONGC in becoming the most valuable PSU of India in terms of market capitalisation (m-cap).
State-owned Coal India is in negotiations to pick 15 per cent stake in a joint venture with US-based coal firm Peabody Energy’s USD
600 million mining project in Australia. The US-based firm will have 85 per cent holding in the JVC, while the rest will be owned by the
Maharatna firm.
17-May
Ø UTI Mutual Fund has declared dividend under dividend option of UTI Fixed
16-May
Income Interval Fund Half Yearly Interval Plan I on the face value of Rs 10 per
unit, quantum of dividend will be 100% of distributable surplus as on the record -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500
Debt Equity
date, record date for dividend has been fixed as May 25, 2011. The NAV for retail
FII Trading Activity ( In Billions)
option and institutional option stood at Rs 10.1343 per unit and Rs 10.1386 per unit
respectively as on 18, May 2011.
20-May
19-May
Ø Religare Mutual Fund has announced that units of Religare Fixed Maturity Plan -
18-May
Series VII - Plan C (369 Days) under Religare Fixed Maturity Plan - Series VII-
Plan A to F, a close ended scheme, will be listed and admitted to dealings on the 17-May
Capital market segment of Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) with effect from 20, 16-May
May 2011. -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000
Debt Equity
Weekly Activity
Equity (INR in Bn) Debt (INR in Bn)
Date
Purchase Sales Net Purchase /Sales Purchase Sales Net Purchase /Sales
Mutual Fund Activity
19-May-11 5.52 5.24 0.28 22.07 27.70 -5.63
18-May-11 3.79 5.09 -1.30 11.69 19.14 -7.45
17-May-11 2.79 9.11 -6.32 0.00 0.00 0.00
16-May-11 3.36 4.12 -0.76 37.11 23.43 13.69
FII Activity
20-May-11 21.12 21.19 -0.07 12.23 13.07 -0.83
19-May-11 24.58 27.18 -2.60 5.85 3.40 2.45
18-May-11 38.32 40.74 -2.42 25.60 15.83 9.77
16-May-11 23.01 60.07 -37.06 6.80 10.92 -4.12
Source: Accord Fintech
ICICI Pru Multiple Close Mr. Chaitanya secondary objective of the Scheme is to generate Crisil MIP Blended
20-May 31-May
Yield-A(G) ended Pande long term capital appreciation by investing a Index
Dividend Declaration
Scheme Name Category Record Date Gross Corporate Non-Corporate
AIG Qtrly Inv-I-Ret(D) Debt 23-May-11 1.77 1.77 1.77
ICICI Pru FMP-50-18M-A-Ret(D) Debt 23-May-11 9.82 9.82 9.82
ICICI Pru FMP-50-18M-B-Ret(D) Debt 23-May-11 10.31 10.31 10.31
Reliance Inv-Annual-I-Ret(D) Debt 23-May-11 6.50 6.50 6.50
Source: Accord Fintech
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