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Peak Load Forecasting

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION
Forecasting is the process of making statements about the events whose actual
outcomes has not been yet observed. It is a systematic effort to anticipate future events
and conditions. As power system planning and construction requires a gestation period
of four to eight years or even longer for the present day super power stations energy
and load demand forecasting plays an important role. Related to Power system
forecasting means estimating active load at various load buses ahead of actual load
occurrences. The importance of demand forecasting needs to be emphasized at all
levels as the consequences of under or over forecasting the demand are serious and will
affect all stakeholders in the electricity supply industry. If under estimated, the result is
serious since plant installation cannot easily be advanced, it will affect the economy,
business, loss of time and image. If over estimated, the financial penalty for excess
capacity (i.e., over-estimated and wasting of resources). Nature of forecasts, lead times
and application are summarized in the table.
TABLE 1. TYPES OF FORECAST AND ITS APPLICATION
Nature of forecast Lead time Application
Very short term A few seconds to several Generation, distribution
minutes schedules. contingency
analysis for system security
Short term Half an hour to a few hours Allocation of spinning
reserve, operational planning
and unit commitment,
maintanence and scheduling
Medium term A few days to few weeks Planning for seasonal peak
winter, summer
Long term A few months to a few years Planning generation growth

Two approaches used for load forecasting is total load approach and component
approach. Advantage of total load approach is, it is much smoother and indicative of
overall growth trends and it is easy to apply. On the other hand component approach
shows the abnormal conditions in growth trends of a certain component which prevents
the misleading forecast conclusions. All the forecasting techniques are based on the
assumption that the load supplied will meet the system demand at all points of time. A
statistical analysis of previous load data is used to set up a demand pattern. Once this
has been done, this load model is used for predicting the estimated demand for selected
time. The major task associated with forecasting is to select the best load model this can
be done by decomposing the given load demand at any given point of time into number
of distinctive components. The load is depending on industrial, commercial and
agricultural activities and the weather conditions like temperature, cloudiness, wind
velocity, visibility and precipitation.

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Since there are few comparative studies available to help the forecaster to choose
wisely among the various forecasting schemes, some of which are already in use and
some of which are not yet developed to the point of practical implementation. This
paper reviews six possible approaches to peak-demand forecasting but places greatest
emphasis on probabilistic monthly or weekly peak demand forecasting. Due to the vast
extent of relevant literature, only a few contributions to weather sensitive peak
forecasting, will be pointed out here. A methodology for forecasting annual or weekly
and monthly peak loads, based on the decomposition of peak loads into nonweather
sensitive and weather sensitive components, was developed in [1], [2] and [3]. In [4], a
weather-sensitive model for summer afternoon peak loads, applied to both long and
short term forecasting, using a normal distribution was developed. In [5], a different
regression model, used in forecasting is described. This methodology was modified in
order to apply for a practical system in [6].

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CHAPTER 2

METHODS FOR LOAD FORECASTING


Forecasting techniques may divide into three main classes. Techniques may be based
on extrapolation or on correlation or on a combination of both. Techniques may be
further classified as deterministic, probabilistic or stochastic. Methods are selected in
order to improve.
1. The accuracy of forecast
2. Comprehensiveness of forecast.
Six forecasting techniques used are
1. Energy and Load factor method
2. Extrapolation of annual peak demand
3. Extrapolation of demand data for a sampling of potential peak days
4. Separate extrapolation of trend and weather sensitive components of annual peak
demand.
5. Determination of annual peak demand, from weekly or monthly peak demand
forecast.
6. Stochastic methods.
Method 1,2 and 3 are deterministic method and simple but do not provide estimates
of variance. Other 3 methods are probabilistic method and its advantage is the
availability concerning the uncertainty of the forecast. The methods are described
below.

2.1 ENERGY AND LOAD FACTOR METHOD

Energy forecasting can be done with more reliability than demand forecasts. Annual
energy can be converted into demand by multiplying it with load factor. Therefore it is
possible to obtain a demand forecast by combining the forecasting of energy and load
factor which is superior in accuracy to a peak demand forecasted by direct methods. It
is easy to obtain energy forecasting because of the availability of data but forecasting of
load factor is just as difficult as the annual peak demand. The accuracy of load factor
forecast can be maintained but the work involved in forecasting is comparable with
peak demand forecasting.
Advantage of energy forecasting is the availability of data from which the energy
consumption of different classes of customers can be known.
Limitation of this method is that it does not provides estimates of the variance of
annual peak demand forecasts. This method is used for finding the seasonal peak
demands.

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2.2EXTRAPOLATION OF ANNUAL PEAK DEMANDS.

Extrapolation technique involves fitting a trend curves to basic historical dataset of


annual peak demand adjusted to reflect the growth trend itself. With the trend curve a
forecast is obtained by evaluating the trend curve function at the desired future point.
The effect of weather in peak demand is neglected by assuming that the same weather
condition prevails at the time of annual peak demand. The effect of economic
conditions on peak demand may be used in analysis by including an economic variable
when fitting the trend curve but this step is practically difficult.
The variance of annual peak demand can be computed in this manner but its
reliability is unsatisfactory because of limited amount of data. Twenty years of data will
provide twenty points for fitting the trend curve which is not enough for estimating the
variance. Extending the database is not practical even if adequate amount of historical
data is available because the phenomena which produce the annual peak demand
changes with time. By this method seasonal peak can be obtained by fitting two trend
lines one to summer peak and other for winter peak.

2.3 MODIFIED EXTRAPOLATION OF ANNUAL PEAK DEMAND


The advantage of using this method is the use of extra data without resorting to a
longer data base. If we are taking a sample of six days on which peak demand occurs,
we can find out that the conditions on these days will be similar. Statistically these six
values may be treated in the same class as the annual peak demand, and a six fold
increase in the data results. The number of extra demand value used is arbitrary but
going beyond 10 or 12 risks including data points for which peak demand conditions do
not apply.
Typically modified procedure uses six data points over a period of 10 or 12 years.
The time of incidence associated with each demand value, a trend curve is fitted to the
data points using least square minimization. The effect of weather on the trend curve is
neglected by assuming that the same weather condition prevails at the time of peak
demand. It is not easy to treat effect of weather in this method because the dependence
of weather on peak demand changes from year to year. The effect of economic
conditions can be included by using an economic variable while fitting the trend curve.
The forecast can be obtained by extrapolating the trend curve at desired time and
adjusting for expected economic conditions. By using this method it is expected to
provide variance of peak demand but the method fails to provide it when factors
contributing the peak demand changes with time. Another point is the reliability of
variance estimated will increase with number of data points used but its value will
increase with increase in data points.
The above three methods are simple and produces reasonable results in some
instances. Such techniques are called deterministic extrapolation since the random
errors in the data or in analytical model are not accounted.

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2.4 SEPARATE TREATMENT OF WEATHER- SENSITIVE COMPONENT OF


ANNUAL PEAK DEMAND

It is possible to observe the system demand at hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, by


seasons, or annually the difference is in the rate of sampling of this continuously
varying demand. The sampling rate is important in order to differentiate the weather
sensitive and non- weather sensitive components, which is obtained from the weather
load model which is determined from the data which is sampled more frequently in a
year. The weather load models must be updated annually due to the time variation of
weather sensitive demand. Hourly load data or weekly load data can be used for finding
the weather load model but weekly sampling of data gives an absolute minimum in the
number of data points also it gives adequate load model when correlated with
coincident dry bulb temperature. Once the weather load model have been determined it
is possible to remove weather sensitive component from the annual peak demand data.
Modified extrapolation method can be used for the separate treatment of weather
sensitive and non weather sensitive data as follows.
1. Week day peak demand and weather data are used to determine weather
load model year by year or season by season
2. The weather load models are used to separate the weather sensitive and non
weather sensitive components.
3. A trend curve is fitted for non weather sensitive components and is
extrapolated to obtain the mean and variance of annual peak demand at
desired time.
4. Growth curves are fitted for the changing coefficients of weather load model
and are extrapolated to obtain the variance at desired time.
5. The historical demand and weather data are used to determine the mean and
variance of the weather variable corresponding to annual peak demand
conditions. It is assumed that the weather variable is normally distributed.
6. The forecasted weather load model obtained at the 4th step and the weather
statistics determined in the step 5 is combined to forecast the mean and
variance of weather sensitive component of future peak demands.
7. The forecast of the non weather sensitive component obtained in step 3 is
combined with the forecast of weather forecast obtained in step 6 to make
the total peak demand forecast.
This forecasting scheme is acceptable on the basis of our knowledge in power system
growth.

2.5 FORECASTING ON A MONTHLY OR WEEKLY BASIS

Monthly or weekly peak demand forecast is necessary in situations where there is a


planning of Interchange energy requirement, Peaking capacity and Maintenance of
major plant as well as for economic studies.
Determining annual and seasonal peak demand forecast from weekly and monthly
forecast is considered as a superior approach, since it is possible to obtain annual peak
demand from monthly peak demand by applying monthly peak demand ratio. As

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weekly peak demand data is more suitable for obtaining weather load model it is used
over monthly peak demand data also a week is a precisely defined time period whereas
a month possesses an irregular number of potential peak demand days. The procedure is
similar with that of the method specified by the 4 th method but in method describes
above it is assumed that the weather sensitive component is normally distributed but in
actual case it is not strictly normally distributed and it gives no indication of the
difficulties caused by the non Gaussian distribution of the weather sensitive component
of weekly peak demand. If it is assumed that the non- weather sensitive component of
weekly peak demand is normally distributed, and that its variance is several times the
variance of weather sensitive component, it is a reasonable approximation to assume
that the total load is normally distributed. The total peak demand forecast at some
future time has a mean value
D (t) = B (t) + S (t)
Where B (t) is the mean value of the non-weather sensitive component of weekly peak
demand and S (t) is the mean value of the weather sensitive component of the weekly
peak demand. Its variance is
σ2 D(t) = σ2 B(t) + σ2 S(t)
Although these results can be applied to any distribution, the usefulness of variance by
setting up a confidence interval for forecasts does depends on the total forecast being
nearly Gaussian.
Having obtained a weekly peak demand methods should be formulated to extract
information concerning the annual or seasonal peak demands. It should be noted that
the peak demand forecasted for a particular week is not a number rather a probability
distribution. Although we can represent the distribution by means of its mean and
variance but these two variables is not sufficient to describe the distribution. It is
temporarily assumed that the distribution of weekly peak demand is known and is not
necessarily Gaussian. Let Pk(x) be the cumulative probability distribution of peak
demand of kth week and pk(x) be the probability density function of kth week. The
problem is to determine the annual or seasonal peak demand from 52 different
probability distribution. The probability density function for annual or seasonal peak
demand is given by

Where N=52 for annual peak and N=26 for seasonal peak. The result is quite general
and time consuming to evaluate using a digital computer. This can be simplified by
considering only those weeks where annual or seasonal peak occurs, in this way we can
reduce the value of N there by reducing the computational effort.
Procedure can be summarized as follows
1. Forecast both mean and peak demand for each week

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2. Assume the weekly peak demand is normally distributed and calculate the
probability density function of annual peak demand that includes only those
weeks in which annual peak demand occurs.
3. Calculate mean and variance of the annual peak demand using

2.6. STOCHASTIC METHOD

Stochastic model involves developing a probabilistic model whose output is electrical


demand. Stochastic model take the form of difference equation since demand is
expressed in discrete time series perturbed by random inputs and the forecast can be
obtained by solving these difference equations.
Stochastic process is concerned with the sequence of events governed by
probabilistic laws it may be defined as A stochastic process X = { X(t), t T } is a
collection of random variables. That is, for each t in the index set T, X(t) is a random
variable. We often interpret t as time and call X(t) the state of the process at time t” . If
T is a countable set then we have a discrete stochastic process and if T is a continuous
set then we have a continuous time stochastic process.
In most case stochastic variable has both expected value term and a random
term the stochastic process forecasting for a random variable X, as a forecasted value
(E[X]) plus a forecasting error, where error follow some probability distribution. So:
X(t) = E[X(t)] + error(t).
Gaussian process is a stochastic process whose realizations consist of random values
associated with every point in a range of times (or of space) such that each such random
variable has a normal distribution. Moreover, every finite collection of those random
variables has a multivariate normal distribution.
Gaussian process may be defined as a stochastic process { Xt ; t TT} for which any
finite linear combination of samples will be normally distributed (or, more generally,
any linear functional applied to the sample function Xt will give a normally distributed
result). Although mathematical and computational complexity discourage the use of
stochastic methods, these techniques bring a new field of mathematics to bear on the
problem of demand forecasting.

The following three steps are used in stochastic forecasting procedure


1. specify the form of the stochastic model
2. use historical data to determine the unknown random input to the
stochastic model
3. calculate the response of the stochastic model

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Stochastic model for monthly peak demand is given as

Where Xt is the estimate of monthly peak demand produced by the model, ut, vt
and wt are variables with zero mean, Gaussian random process, ρ is a parameter
varying between 0 and 1, and U is the backward shift operator. Four parameters
must be estimated before the model is complete, the variance of random inputs σu2,
σv2, σw2 and a parameter of the model ρ. However no meaningful statistics can be
developed from historical data due to non stationarity so a reversible transformation
which converts the non stationary process Xt to stationary process Yt.

The above equation represents a stochastic model producing the stationary


random process Yt.. The forecast is prepared by first manipulating Yt into
convenient form for forecasting Yt, performing necessary computation and then
using the inverse transformation to convert Yt into forecasted values of monthly
peak demand Xt. Since the model is non stationary, it does not have to be updated
as frequently as the trend curves and weather load models used in other approaches.
Regarding practical application it appears that a purely stochastic approach to
demand forecasting has a limited practical significance, but the combination of
simple stochastic models with more conventional techniques such as weather load
models may have great potential.
Out of these six methods the most applicable method to any type of system is
‘Separate treatment of weather sensitive component in annual peak demand’. It is
more accurate and reliable too. For separate treatment of weather induced and non
weather induced demand it uses weather load model , by using weather load model
separate forecasting of weather induced and non weather induced demand is done
and both are combined to get the final total load forecast.

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CHAPTER 3

FORECASTING AND REGRESSION METHODS


3.1 REGRESSION
Regression is a statistical tool for finding the relationship among the variables, it is
used to investigate the causal relationship of dependent variable and one or more
independent variable .It helps us to understand how the value of dependent variables
change due to the change in one independent variable while the other independent
variables held as constant. The analysis starts by finding a function which defines the
dependent variables as a function of independent variable, by assembling data on the
underlying variable of interest, this function is termed as regression function. It is
widely used in prediction and forecasting.
Techniques available for performing regression are numerous. Most widely used
technique is Linear Regression or ordinary least square regression technique which is
parametric which uses finite number of unknown parameters for defining the regression
function. Non parametric methods are also available which allows the regression
function to lie within a set of functions, which may be infinite dimensional.

Regression model
Regression model involves three variables
1. Unknown parameter denoted as β which may be a scalar or a vector
2. Dependent variable, Y
3. Independent variable, X

The dependent variable Y can be represented as a function of β and X as


Y=f (β, X)
For carrying out regression analysis the form of the function should be specified. The
form is obtained from the relationship between Y and X that does not rely on the
data. If no such knowledge is available then a flexible or a convenient form of
function is chosen.

Assume now that the vector of unknown parameters β is of length k. In order to perform a
regression analysis the user must provide information about the dependent variable Y:

• If N data points of the form (Y, X) are observed, where N < k, most classical
approaches to regression analysis cannot be performed: since the system of
equations defining the regression model is underdetermined, there is not enough
data to recover β.
• If exactly N = k data points are observed, and the function f is linear, the
equations Y = f(X, β) can be solved exactly rather than approximately. This
reduces to solving a set of N equations with N unknowns (the elements of β),

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which has a unique solution as long as the X are linearly independent. If f is


nonlinear, a solution may not exist, or many solutions may exist.
• The most common situation is where N > k data points are observed. In this
case, there is enough information in the data to estimate a unique value for β
that best fits the data in some sense, and the regression model when applied to
the data can be viewed as an over determined system in β.

Statistical Assumptions

When the number of measurements, N, is larger than the number of unknown parameters,
k, and the measurement errors εi are normally distributed then excess of information
contained in (N - k) measurements is used to make statistical predictions about the
unknown parameters. This excess of information is referred to as the degrees of freedom
of the regression.

Classical Assumptions

Classical assumptions include

• The sample is representative of the population for the inference prediction.


• The error is a random variable with a mean of zero conditional on the
explanatory variables.
• The independent variables are measured with no error. (Note: If this is not so,
modeling may be done instead using errors-in-variables model techniques).
• The predictors are linearly independent, i.e. it is not possible to express any
predictor as a linear combination of the other.
• The errors are uncorrelated, that is, the variance-covariance matrix of the errors
is diagonal and each non-zero element is the variance of the error.
• The variance of the error is constant across observations (Note: If not, weighted
least squares or other methods might instead be used).

3.1.2 DIFERENT FORMS OF MULTIPLE REGRESSION

1. LINEAR REGRESSION

In Linear Regression the dependent variable is expressed as a linear combination of


the parameters. Linear Regression is of two types simple linear regression and
multiple linear regression. In simple linear regression there is only a single
independent variable and its analysis is simpler because the curve is approximated
as a straight line. Simple linear regression is of the form.

Where β0 and β1 are unknown parameters and xi is the independent variable.


Multiple regression model dependent variables are expressed as a function of more than
one independent variable or as a function of independent variable. For example

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there may be relationship between three variables X, Y, and Z that can be described
by the equation
Z= β0 + β1 X+ β2 Y, which is called a linear equation in the variables X, Y, and Z. In a
three dimensional rectangular coordinate system this equation represents a plane.

2. QUADRATIC REGRESSION
Quadratic Regression is in the form of a parabola that means the function will
first increase then decrease or first decrease then increase. It can be described by the
equation

3. CUBIC REGRESSION
Cubic regression is described by the equation
Y= β3 X3 + β2 X2 + β1 X+ β0
Cubic regression can increase then decrease and then increase or it will decrease then
increase and then decrease.

4. QUARTIC REGRESSION
It is described by the equation
Y= β4 X4+ β3 X3 + β2 X2+β1 X+
Quartic regression can increase then decrease then increase then decrease or it will
decrease then increase then decrease then increase.

5. EXPONENTIAL REGRESSION.
It is described by the equation
Y= β0 + β1x . It will strictly increase or decrease.

3.2. TERMINOLOGIES USED IN FORECASTING METHODOLOGY

3.2.1 WEATHER INDUCED DEMAND


Weather induced demand is affected by varying weather conditions and can be
calculated using weather load model given by
Dw = Ks(T-Ts) for T>Ts
Dw=0 for Tw≤T≤Ts
Dw= Kw(T-Tw) for T<Tw
Where Dw is the weather sensitive component of demand, T is the coincident dry
bulbtemperature, Kw and Ks are the computed slopes of the model and Tw and Ts are
the break points of the model which assumes that no weather sensitive components of
demand exists in between the temperature of Tw and Ts.

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Fig 3.1 Weather load model [2]

3.2.2 NON WEATHER DEMAND


It is otherwise called as the base load which is not affected by weather conditions. It
is assumed to be constant under the ideal conditions like no load growth due to
installation of new equipment and no change in the consumer’s user’s habit occur. It is
obtained by subtracting the weather load model with weather induced demand.

3.2.3 SEASONAL COMPONENT OF DEMAND


It indicates the cyclic variation of demand throughout the year. Weather induced
demand contributes more for seasonal component of peak demand and is treated
separately in the forecasts. Non weather component also contributes for seasonal
demand for example demand due to grain drying, Festivals lighting loads etc…

3.2.4 EXPONENTIALLY WEIGHTED REGRESSIONS


A least square curve fit where errors are discounted by multiplying by exponentially
decreasing weight factors as the data becomes older. The weight factor will be a
parameter between zero and one which is selected by the user. A weighting factor of
one gives standard multiple regression where all errors are weighted equally.

3.3 DESCRIPTION OF METHODOLOGY


Application of the forecasting methodology ‘Separate treatment of weather sensitive
component of Annual peak demand’ in Hellenic system is described here. Assuming for
a given month that economic activities are practically similar for every working day, it
becomes apparent that from day to day, the variation of the daily peak load is mainly
due to the impact of temperature (or other weather sensitive parameters like humidity).
The daily peak load, for every working day of the month, can be considered as the sum
of two components, a nonweather sensitive (base load) and a weather sensitive load.
Decomposition of peak load into these two components requires weather load model.

3.3.1 DATA PREPARATION


Two sets of input data is required a daily summery of load and its corresponding
weather observations for developing weather load models and a weekly summary of
load and weather data which is the input to the weekly peak demand forecasting
program.

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The demand data may be prepared on daily, weekly or hourly basis it may consists of
several useful variables, it is desirable to include only the most promising variables on
the data so that subsequent experimentation is possible without reprocessing the hourly
data. The results were produced with daily and weekly peak demand and coincident dry
bulb temperature.

3.3.2 WEATHER LOAD MODEL


The weather load model of every year is obtained by the scatter diagram of the daily
peaks vs one or more weather variables such as temperature, humidity etc. Weekends,
major holidays and other abnormal days (such as major strikes, natural disasters,
blackouts etc) are excluded. A typical example of such a diagram for the Hellenic
system, considering only temperature as a weather variable, is shown in Fig.2

Fig 3.2 Typical scatter diagram for Hellenic system [3]


The scatter diagram is fitted to a non-linear model. After experimenting with several
forms of models it was seen that a quadratic model was the most suitable one, such as
the one depicted in Fig. 3

Fig 3.3 Quadratic weather load model [3]


Two methods are used to determine weather load model. First methods make use of
yearly load data to plot a scatter diagram with the values of Tw and Ts is given the
value of Kw and Ks is estimated directly from the diagram. Second method makes use

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of linear regression to fit kw and Ks values of Tw and Ts have been specified. The
specific procedure is as follows.
D0 is the average value of all the demand values lying in the temperature range of
Tw<T<Ts. Since the winter weather load characteristic must pass through the point
(D0, Tw) a least squares, straight line fit gives the value of Kw. Similarly, the summer
characteristics passes through the point (D0, Ts) and Ks is readily determined by a least
squares fit. Since the points (D0, Kw) and (D0, Ks) are already specified some data
points are excluded while estimating the values of Kw and Ks. All heating days with
peak demand less than D0 are excluded while fitting Ks and all cooling days with peak
demand less than D0 are excluded while fitting Ks.

3.3.3 CALCULATION OF WEATHER SENSITIVE AND NON WEATHER


SENSITIVE COMPONENTS
The mean value D(t) of the daily peak loads (mean monthly peak) for every month t,
similar to the daily peak load, can also be considered as the sum of two components,
the base load L(t) and the mean value of the weather sensitive load components S(t).
D(t) = L(t) + S(t) (3.1)
For each month of the historical data, using corresponding weather- load model
obtained in step 1 and using the mean monthly peak and corresponding mean value of
temperature during the peak hours one can easily calculate the components L(t) and
S(t).

3.3.4 FORECAST OF THE BASE LOAD

The values of the base load obtained in the step 2 is fitted to a suitable trend curve
and are extrapolated and thus obtaining the mean value and variance of the base load at
every month of the forecasting period. A linear trend curve is utilized for this purpose.
Variation of base load from month to month for every year of historical data annual
behaviour pattern was observed. In the forecasted values, monthly coefficients are
calculated and then imposed on the values of the base load resulting from the
extrapolation.

3.3.5 EXTRAPOLATION OF WEATHER LOAD MODELS

In this step, the morning and afternoon weather-load models created in step 1 are
extrapolated resulting in the respective models for every year of the forecast period.
More specifically, the forecasted weather-load models are created by extrapolating the
value of the first derivative of the historical models at various temperatures. Particular
care must be given to the impact of the level of saturation of heating or cooling devices.

3.3.6 FORECAST OF WEATHER SENSITIVE COMPONENT


In this step, using the forecasted weather-load models (morning or afternoon) and the
known distribution of the temperature during peak hours for every month and by
applying classical random variable techniques we can determine the distribution of the
weather sensitive load component for every month of the forecast period. It is assumed

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that the temperature during peak hours and the weather sensitive load component are
normally distributed.

3.3.7 FORECAST OF THE MONTHLY DAILY PEAK LOAD


The total monthly peak is also assumed to be normally distributed. Its mean and
variance is given by the equation
D (t) = L (t) + s (t)
σ 2D(t) = σ 2L(t) +σ 2S(t) (4.2)

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CHAPTER 4

RESULTS
The above method is applied to Hellenic system. Historical data for the peak load
and the temperature variation is used. The mean monthly peak loads are
decomposed into base load and weather sensitive load components. The known
weather load models and base loads are extrapolated. The extrapolation result is as
shown in the figure4.1

Fig 4.1 Forecast of evening weather load model [3]


The forecast of the weather sensitive component requires the knowledge of the
distribution of the temperature during peak hours for every month. Forecast of non-
weather sensitive component is as shown in the figure 4.2

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Fig 4.2 Forecast of base load [3]


The dark lines in the above forecast indicate the forecast of the simulation period.
Since the weather conditions on future months cannot be predicted the choice of
monthly temperature distribution can be on the basis of impact of different weather
conditions on peak load .The mean and variance of the weather sensitive components
are calculated using the techniques described earlier. The assumption that the total
monthly peaks are normally distributed allows us to set up confidence intervals for the
forecast. The selection of the expected peaks that will be used for planning purposes
depends on the acceptable level of risk. As described in the methodology the total load
forecast is obtained by combining the forecast of weather sensitive and non weather
sensitive components which is indicated in figure 4.3

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Fig 4.3 Forecast of monthly peak load [3]

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CHAPTER 5

CONCLUSION
The implementation of forecasting technique “Separate treatment of weather
sensitive component” is described in the paper which is quite straight forward and
also a widely used technique. The theoretical implementation of this load
forecasting approach for real system is not so straight forward so the method with
little modification is described here. The accuracy of this method is acceptable to
some extend. The method uses statistical extrapolation technique with lots of
assumptions which suffers from following drawbacks like annual peak load data of
particular element for example substation, can deviate much during the loading
history. These data shifts are mostly caused by switching as loads are routinely
moved from one substation to another during the course of utility operation. Hence
the extrapolation technique suffers badly due to these data shifts. This problem can
be significant, especially in electricity distribution systems with an incomplete
Remote control Systems. In order to solve these problems improve techniques has
to be used. Forecasting using neural networks which models all these uncertainties
is recommended.

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APPENDIX 1

DERIVATION OF PROBABILITY FUNCTION OF WEATHER SENSITIVE


COMPONENT

Fig 6.1. Derivation of probability function of weather sensitive component [1]

Fig 6.2. Probability density function for weather


sensitive component of demand [2]
From the theory of random variables it is known that
if a random variable Y is given by:
Y= g(X)
and fx(x) is the density distribution function of the
random variable X, then the density distribution
function fy(y)of the random variable Y is given by the
following
equation:

where xI, x2, . . . are the roots of the equation y = g (x).


Let C denote the normally distributed random variable of the temperature, with mean
value and variance ,Y© the quadratic weather-load model and Cmin the
temperature that minimizes the value of the weather-load model. The random variable
X, given by:

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Peak Load Forecasting

is a normally distributed random variable, with a mean value 0 and variance 1.


The mean value and the variance of the weather sensitive load component arecalculated
by applying the above theorem. It can be seen that the mean value s(t) is

where dY/dC is the value of the derivative of the weather-load model at temperature
and

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Peak Load Forecasting

REFERENCES
[1] K.N Stanton and Pradeep C Guptha, “Forecasting Annual or seasonal peak demand
in Electric utility systems” IEEE Transactions of Power Apparatus and systems pp.951
– 959 May/June 1970
[2] K.N Stanton, “Medium Range, Weekly and Seasonal Peak Demand Forecasting by
Probability methods” IEEE Transactions pp 1183-1189June 1970”
[3] R.L Sullivan, “Power System Planning”, Tata Mcgraw Hill, Newyork. 1977, pp 19-
59

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Peak Load Forecasting

[4] C.E Asburgy, “Weather load model for electric demand and energy forecasting”
IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, vol.-94, no.4 July/August 1975
[5] Murray R. Spielgal and Larry J.Stephens, “Shaum’s Outline of Statistics” , Mcgraw
Hill ,Newyork , 1998 pp.282-286,311-318,434-439
[6] E.G Contaxi, “Application of weather sensitive Peak load forecasting Model to the
Hellenic system” IEEE Melecon 2004 pp.819-822
[7] Slobodan M. Maksimovich and Vladimir M. Shiljkut, “The Peak load forecasting
afterwards its intensive reduction” IEEE Transactions on power delivery, vol, 24, N0.3,
July 2009 pp 1552-1559

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