This action might not be possible to undo. Are you sure you want to continue?
MARTIN J. JARVIS
British Antarctic Survey, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, U.K. E-mail: email@example.com
(Received 8 December 2000; accepted 8 August 2001)
Abstract. Within the global context, Antarctica has a key role to play in understanding long-term change in the upper atmosphere, both because of its isolation from the rest of the world and because of its unique geophysical attributes. Antarctic upper atmosphere data can provide global change observations regarding the mesosphere, thermosphere, ionosphere, plasmasphere and magnetosphere. It will not only provide trend estimates but, just as importantly, it will deﬁne the background variability which exists in the upper atmosphere and against which these trends must be resolved. Upper atmospheric change can be driven both from within the Earth’s near environment primarily through changing atmospheric composition, dynamics or geomagnetic ﬁeld, or it can be driven externally, predominantly by the Sun. Recent observations are discussed in the light of increasing interest in global change issues and sun-weather relationships. Keywords: Antarctica, global change, mesosphere, thermosphere, ionosphere, plasmasphere
1. Introduction The Earth’s upper atmosphere, taken here to be the region upward of 60 km altitude extending outwards more than ten Earth radii to the magnetopause, includes the mesosphere, thermosphere, ionosphere, plasmasphere and magnetosphere. It is observed to undergo changes on time scales from less than a second through to one hundred years and beyond. The latter limit merely reﬂects the longest period over which we have been recording any absolute measurements at these altitudes but time scales for change can be expected to extend through millions of years. Both short-term variability and long-term change can be driven both from sources within the Earth’s environmental envelope, delineated by the bounds of the geomagnetic ﬁeld, and from external sources primarily within the solar system and predominantly by the Sun. The upper atmosphere can respond more strongly and relatively more simply than the troposphere to complex changes occurring in the troposphere itself and consequently can act as a ‘litmus test’ of underlying long-term changes, possibly of anthropogenic cause. For instance, a temperature increase near the Earth’s surface resulting from increased ‘greenhouse gases’ is expected to be accompanied by a decrease in temperature twenty times greater in the thermosphere at 250 km. However, in order to extract these trends against a background of shorter-term variability and non-anthropogenic secular change, it
Surveys in Geophysics 22: 155–174, 2001. © 2001 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands.
MARTIN J. JARVIS
is essential that we ﬁrst understand and quantify the naturally-varying inﬂuences of the Sun, geomagnetic ﬁeld, lower atmosphere and all other external inﬂuences upon upper atmospheric processes. Antarctica has an inﬂuential role to play in research into long-term change processes. It provides important opportunities for testing critical hypotheses relating observations to current theories, both because of its advantageously unique geophysical attributes and because of its remote location with respect to localised anthropogenic sources. This paper will discuss ways in which Antarctic research can help us to understand how and why our planet’s upper atmosphere may be slowly changing.
2. The Thermosphere Increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the Earth’s atmosphere lead to increased temperatures in the troposphere. The increase that will be invoked by doubling concentrations of ‘greenhouse gases’ (primarily carbon dioxide and methane) compared to pre-industrialised times has been predicted to be of the order of 2 K (Kattenberg et al., 1996) and is forecast to occur by the year 2100. However, numerical models show that higher up in the atmosphere this doubling of greenhouse gases should result in a decrease in temperature several times greater. Roble and Dickinson (1989), for instance, demonstrated that the thermosphere should cool by approximately 50 K and the mesosphere by approximately 10 K. A dramatic illustration of such a cooling effect is evident on the upper atmosphere of Venus which has a very high concentration (96%) of carbon dioxide in its atmosphere and thus is an extreme case of a planet experiencing the greenhouse effect. This raises the temperature of the Venusian lower atmosphere to 700 K – over twice that on Earth. At the same time, however, its effect is to cool the Venusian daytime thermosphere to just 300 K (Keating and Bougher, 1992) typically less than one third of the corresponding temperature on Earth. This cooling is due primarily to very strong radiative infrared cooling associated with CO2 at 15 µm wavelength and the consequent enhancement in emissivity of the planet’s upper atmosphere. One current goal within upper atmospheric research is to conﬁrm this predicted temperature decrease by detecting its signature in geophysical data series. The reliability of temperature trend estimates is dependent on our ability to retrieve those trends against naturally occurring variability in the parameter that we are trying to measure. The magnitude of both the predicted trend and the natural variability vary with altitude. The predicted values for a scenario where greenhouse gases are doubled are shown in Figure 1. Near the ground we might expect a rise in temperature of just 2 K and this will be seen against a diurnal variability of the order of 20 K. Lübken and Von Zahn (1991) grouped winter and summer polar mesospheric temperature proﬁles measured in situ in the northern hemisphere by tracking
The expected change in temperature for a doubled greenhouse gas scenario compared to diurnal variability at different levels in the atmosphere. However. the rate of descent of inﬂated spheres ejected from meteorological rockets. much of the diurnal thermospheric temperature variability can be removed because of its known dependence upon the strength of solar radiation. The upper atmosphere is consequently potentially the most sensitive region of the atmosphere in which to detect a ‘signal’ of a greenhouse gas-induced longterm trend seen against the ‘noise’ of the diurnal variability. in the thermosphere. Rishbeth (1990) demonstrated that the temperature decreases predicted by Roble and Dickinson (1989) for a doubled greenhouse gas scenario would result in a lowering in the height of the ionospheric F2-layer peak height . a number of workers have used proxies to indirectly investigate temperature trends. In the thermosphere it is similar to that near the surface. the doubled greenhouse gas scenario leads to a predicted decrease in temperature of approximately 50 K (Roble and Dickinson.ANTARCTICA’S ROLE IN UNDERSTANDING CHANGE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE 157 Figure 1. There are no direct long-term measurement series of thermospheric temperature. However. the thermosphere has dual advantages over the lower atmosphere: ﬁrst. the trend is an order of magnitude greater than that near the surface and second. Thus the polar summer mesosphere provides a relatively stable background against which to detect secular change. Against this background the mesosphere should experience cooling of approximately 10 K (Roble and Dickinson. In the summer polar mesosphere this signal-to-noise ratio is ﬁve times larger than near the Earth’s surface. 1989). during winter the temperature is more variable and this ﬁgure rises to approximately 60 K. Higher up. They showed that the temperature variation in the high latitude mesosphere throughout the summer covers a range of <20 K at 82 km. 1989) against a background temperature that can vary by >400 K from day to day.
It is also important to carefully consider the detrimental consequences both of poorly calibrated or disrupted data series and of inadequate time series duration [Bremer (1992) demonstrated that a dataset of at very least two solar cycles in duration is necessary to get reliable results for this work]. (1998) showed that hmF2 at these two sites was also decreasing. The results were in general agreement with those of Bremer (1992) and Ulich and Turunen (1997) implying that this phenomenon was indeed a global effect. One reason for confusion is the different methodology used by different authors. 13 ◦ E) over 38 years. This is due primarily to the change in altitude of a ﬁxed pressure level as a direct consequence of cooling. 27 ◦ E) with similar results. means that these two ionosonde stations have the highest possible geographic latitudes for their geomagnetic latitude (see Figure 2). There have since been a number of similar analyses which have begun to confuse the picture. 64 ◦ W) on the Antarctic Peninsula and Port Stanley (52 ◦ S. the fact that in the southern hemisphere the offset between the geomagnetic and geographic poles is signiﬁcantly greater than that in the northern hemisphere. but the remoteness of Antarctica away from localised anthropogenic inputs means that its atmosphere tends to represent a global average. the European results shown are the median values of all individual trends in the region west or east of 30 ◦ E (from Bremer (1998) Figure 2). at some stations downward trends are detected and at some sites upward trends are detected. Bremer (1998). Not only were these measurements from the opposite hemisphere to previous results. JARVIS (hmF2) by around 20 km..158 MARTIN J. Bremer (1992) utilised this thermospheric temperature proxy by deriving hmF2 from ionograms recorded at Juliusruh (54 ◦ N. Jarvis et al. The minimisation of solar cycle effects in hmF2 trend analyses has generally been achieved through the generation of an empirical relationship between sunspot . Those published results that fully meet these criteria (e. Figure 3 gives a summary of these results. geomagnetic activity and any diurnal variation in trend induced by secular variations in thermospheric wind. Furthermore.24 km yr−1 . These European observations were brought into a global context by an analysis of 38 years of ionospheric sounding data from Argentine Islands (65 ◦ S. During the analysis it is important to minimise the effects of changing solar radiation. Jarvis et al. 1998).g. Thus they are able to sample the high latitude atmosphere with minimal introduction of variability into the data through geomagnetic activity and are therefore extremely valuable sites for such measurements. Ulich and Turunen (1997) made a similar analysis of hmF2 over 39 years at Sodankyla (67 ◦ N. 58 ◦ W) in the Falkland Islands (Jarvis et al. coupled with the location of Argentine Islands and Port Stanley at the opposite geographic longitude to that of the geomagnetic pole. Bremer (1992). He found a downward trend in hmF2 averaged over the whole year of 0.. Taking into account any residual effects of geomagnetic activity or changing thermospheric winds they determined the trend for each month of the year. (1998)) indicate that there is generally a negative trend except over part of Eastern Europe (east of 30 ◦ E) where there is a positive trend.
This has then been used to remove as much of the solar cycle inﬂuence from the data analysis as possible. However. this is a relatively simplistic approach and does not account for the possibility that the thermosphere has long-term conditioning. The invariant geomagnetic pole is denoted by M.7 cm ﬂux and the hmF2 data itself. Danilov and Mikhailov (2001) extend this concept to consider whether hmF2 . number or 10.P. This emphasises the need for data series covering several solar cycles. Such conditioning was reported by Field and Rishbeth (1997) who found F2-layer data for different solar cycles showed a markedly different response to the same level of geomagnetic activity. Mikhailov and Marin (2000) interpret trends in the peak electron concentration of the F-region (foF2) in terms of the long-term variation in geomagnetic activity and consequent changes in the occurrence characteristics of geomagnetic storms.ANTARCTICA’S ROLE IN UNDERSTANDING CHANGE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE 159 Figure 2. Geographic (solid) and geomagnetic (dashed) latitude lines are drawn at 10◦ intervals. Thus Field and Rishbeth (1997) suggested that the response to a given level of geomagnetic activity depends not just on the current level of solar ﬂux but on its past ‘history’. Antarctica showing the offset of the geomagnetic invariant and geographic poles and the locations of research stations mentioned in this paper.
There is clearly more research required before the implications of the observed hmF2 trends can be fully understood. Keating et al. European ionosonde data (mean of all months) from Bremer (1998).. The ionospheric results from Antarctica and western Europe have recently been corroborated by a completely independent method. Comparison with the calculations of Rishbeth (1990) indicates that this is equivalent to a 0. (1998) even though it occurred during a long-term increase in geomagnetic activity (Clilverd et al. and Port Stanley ionosonde data (by month) from Jarvis et al. Argentine Is. (2000) have conﬁrmed that the thermosphere is cooling by measuring the atmospheric drag on ﬁve satellites to show that the density of the thermosphere at 350 km has decreased by approximately 10% over two solar cycles. (2000). (1998). trends may be linked to long-term geomagnetic activity changes. Conversely. satellite drag data from Keating et al. they reproduce the negative hmF2 trend found by Jarvis et al. JARVIS Figure 3. The derived trend in F-region altitude from ionosonde and satellite observations. in spite of ﬁnding a positive correlation between hmF2 trend and geomagnetic activity. This is equivalent to a decrease in hmF2 of 0. .160 MARTIN J.6 K yr−1 drop in temperature.25 km yr−1 (also shown in Figure 3). In a reanalyses of the Argentine Islands and Port Stanley data presented by Jarvis et al. (1998) they conclude that the local time variation of the correlation between geomagnetic activity and hmF2 trend principally agrees with the current understanding of ionospheric storms. 1998) (see Section 5).
At about 82 km altitude one of the most striking indications of long-term change in the upper atmosphere is visible from the ground unaided. In the early years (1960s) these measurements were carried out using rocket grenades. 1990). primarily because the upwardpropagating gravity wave activity. Antarctica. At around 60 kin altitude cooling rates between 0. then it is estimated that the increase in occurrence rate reﬂects a temperature drop of 0. Using an entirely different technique. hence providing sufﬁciently low temperatures for ice particle formation more frequently than in the past. we need to fully understand how mesospheric temperatures are controlled or what the characteristics of the background variability are. (1997) monitored the reﬂection height of 164 kHz radiowaves in the lower D region at 50 ◦ N over 30 years and demonstrated that the column-mean temperature between the stratopause and 82 km altitude has systematically fallen at a linear rate of 0. to Heiss Island (81◦ N. If this is so.6 K yr−1 at heights between 60 and 70 km. Fogle and Haurwitz. which does not sit easily with observations above and below this altitude. Golitsyn et al.. 1990).. (1996) do not ﬁnd evidence of any long term change in temperature below the mesopause from a survey of over 30 years of measurements at high latitude (66 ◦ N – 71 ◦ N). Lübken et al. An alternative possibility is that methane increases in the lower atmosphere have led to increased water vapour presence at the mesopause promulgating ice particle formation (Thomas. Golitsyn et al. The Mesosphere Lower down. 58 ◦ E). Hauchecorne et al. in the mesosphere. 46 ◦ E).4 K yr−1 are found. One way to try to resolve this problem is to compare mesospheric temperatures and drivers in the Arctic with those in the Antarctic. 1999. which generates the cold summer mesopause by forcing adiabatic cooling. A more detailed presentation of this result is given by Lübken (2000). However. This may be an indication of steadily declining temperatures at that altitude. 1996). 1996).. Until recently mesopause temperature in the Antarctic had been believed to be several degrees warmer than that in the Arctic. (1996) present the results from over 7000 rocket launches between 1964 and 1995 at 5 sites covering a latitudinal range from Molodeshneya (68 ◦ S.g.ANTARCTICA’S ROLE IN UNDERSTANDING CHANGE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE 161 3. Taubenheim et al. 1991) and sounding rockets (Keckhut et al. In order to investigate the implications of this result.. in the later years (1990s) the mesospheric temperature proﬁles were derived from the rate of descent of rocket-launched falling spheres. 1991.3 K yr−1 (Gadsden. 1966). There are three ways to test this. the consensus of observations also show longterm cooling. . which are formed of ice particles which appear in the extremely low temperatures near the polar summer mesopause.25 K yr−1 and 0. has been argued to be weaker in the Antarctic than in the Arctic.6 K yr−1 . Noctilucent clouds (e. Measurement techniques at this altitude include lidar (Aikin et al. have doubled in occurrence rate over northern Europe in thirty years (Gadsden. Temperature measurements were made between approximately 22 km and 75 km altitude using a resistance thermometer and showed cooling of the order of 0..
This close symmetry of the Antarctic and Arctic upper atmosphere thermal structure during January/July implies that the physical processes dominating the energy budget are similar. These ﬁrst in situ mesospheric temperature proﬁles over Antarctica provide an important benchmark for future long-term change studies. (1999a) and Figure 1 of Huaman and Balsley (1999). Remotely sensed temperature comparisons between the Antarctic and Arctic mesospheres have recently been published by Huaman and Balsley (1999). 1999a). the ﬁrst in situ measurements of the Antarctic mesospheric temperature proﬁle were not carried out until very recently (Lübken et al. are plainly needed in order to provide a more deﬁnitive result. JARVIS The ﬁrst is to make temperature measurements in the Antarctic mesosphere for direct comparison with those in the Arctic. Norway. The Antarctic in situ and remotelysensed measurements at 82 km tend towards disagreement in the data closest to solstice (i. While Arctic mesospheric temperatures have been well documented for different seasons and for over 30 years. The logistical constraints of a rocket campaign from the Antarctic meant that the ﬁrst launch of the two-month campaign took place three weeks after summer solstice. Rothera is ideally located for such a north-south comparison because it is almost exactly co-latitudinal to Andoya (69 ◦ N. Figure 4 shows a superposition of data taken from Figure 4. Temperatures at 82 km altitude from the falling spheres over Rothera show close agreement with those in the Arctic for January/July but indicate that the Antarctic mesosphere became 4 ± 6 K warmer by mid-February. 15–20 days after solstice) and further in situ Antarctic observations. this time taken within a day or two of the solstice. Limb-scanned satellite observations from the High Resolution Doppler Imager (HRDI) were averaged across seven years and sampled between 64◦ and 68◦ latitude over an altitude range of 84–87 km. A series of rocket-released falling spheres were launched and tracked from Rothera (68 ◦ S.162 MARTIN J. It will also be necessary to consider whether the . 68 ◦ W) research station on the Antarctic Peninsula during the austral summer. Twenty-four temperature proﬁles where taken from Rothera approximately two days apart and the temperature through January at 82 km was found to be close to that in the Arctic. This is contrary to expectation given the clear interhemispheric difference in surface topography and land/ocean distribution which might be expected to cause different gravity wave activity and hence different dynamical forcing in the two polar mesospheres.. This difference then reduces rapidly and levels off to 3 ± 2 K by three weeks after solstice – just after the Antarctic rocket campaign began. The ﬁrst temperature measurement on 5 January 1998 showed the mesopause temperature to be as cold as 129 K at 87 km surprisingly close to the northern hemisphere July mean value of 130 K (July being the equivalent northern month with respect to the solstice).e. of Lübken et al. These data indicate that the mesosphere in the Antarctic is some 15 K warmer than that in the Arctic for a period extending from about 10 days before to about 15 days after the summer solstice. but by February it was a few degrees warmer than its Arctic equivalent. 16 ◦ E). from where the majority of northern hemisphere in situ measurements have been made..
Comparison of the Antarctic-Arctic temperature difference in the summer mesosphere at 82 km altitude from in situ (Lübken et al. Individual in situ measurements are noted by ﬁlled squares and the best-ﬁt through these by a dashed line. Grifﬁths and Shanklin (1987) and Shanklin (1988) documented two occurrences of noctilucent cloud at Faraday research station (65 ◦ S) on the Antarctic peninsula in June 1985. noctilucent cloud formation is highly temperature dependent. Warren et al. there have been few noctilucent cloud observations in Antarctica (cf. that we do not properly understand the energy budget of the mesosphere – a necessary prerequisite for interpreting trend estimates. not because of their absence. In other words. As noted earlier.. 1999) observations. Unfortunately. this summer phenomenon was observed near the winter solstice. For instance. is to compare the occurrence of temperature-dependent phenomena. Similarly. Limb-scanned observations are denoted by a solid line with error bars. there have surprisingly been ‘out-of-season noctilucent cloud observations in the Antarctic implying.ANTARCTICA’S ROLE IN UNDERSTANDING CHANGE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE 163 Figure 4. however. That said. 1999a) and limb-scanned (Huaman and Balsley. 1996). providing a benchmark of when mesopause temperatures drop below a certain value. (1997) observed noctilucent clouds in April (four months after summer solstice) at South Pole Station (90 ◦ S) and also provided supporting evidence that unusually cold temperatures can occur in the Antarctic mesosphere at unexpected times of year. The second way to test whether forced adiabatic cooling is weaker in the Antarctic than in the Arctic. but because land in the ideal latitude range for observations (55–65◦ ) is very limited and sparsely inhabited and tropospheric cloud hampers observation because of the presence of the Antarctic Convergence. They presented examples of OH temperature meas- . again. interhemispheric temperature comparison has the same characteristics at 82 km as it does at the mesopause. Thomas.
40 ◦ E) and Casey (66 ◦ S. two other manifestations of similar phenomena. PMC are optically thin layers of cloud typically observed during summer at polar latitudes >70◦ by satellite via limb-scanning at ultra-violet wavelengths. Yoshiki and Sato (2000) have recently published a statistical analysis of gravity waves observed in the polar stratosphere over a period of 10 years from radiosonde measurements. Statistical data on the occurrence rate and strength of PMSE and NLC from the ground or PMC from satellites provide only an indirect proxy to the physical processes. This leads to the presumption that if their formation is primarily controlled by temperature. 27 ◦ W) (Clilverd et al.. They also ﬁnd evidence that. the southern polar mesosphere is warmer than that in the north. In situ temperature measurements by rocket and remote measurement of temperature by limb-scanning satellites detect the effect (temperature change) rather than the cause (gravity waves). Polar Mesospheric Summer Echoes (PMSE) and Polar Mesospheric Clouds (PMC). none are without difﬁculty. However due to the sparcity of the occurrence statistics. while most gravity waves transfer energy upward in the Arctic. Of the three methods described above. While noctilucent clouds are rarely observable in Antarctica. They use data from 33 sites. 110 ◦ E). They suggest that gravity waves observed in the Arctic are forced by topography whereas in the Antarctic some sources may exist in the stratosphere.. PMSE. It is only through a combination of these techniques and additional numerical modelling work that a better understanding of the physics is likely to be forthcoming. 15 of which are poleward of 60 ◦ S. which are radar echoes from thin layers at similar height and with similar characteristics as noctilucent clouds.164 MARTIN J. Olivero and Thomas (1986) showed that. but those that have (Woodman et al. further southern hemisphere PMSE observations are necessary to conﬁrm this. northern PMC are inherently brighter than southern PMC presumably because of larger particles or higher particle concentrations. statistically. make for easier measurement. there is a relatively high percentage of downward energy propagation in the Antarctic in winter and spring. . provide similar indications. but particularly concentrate on data from the Antarctic stations of Syowa (69 ◦ S.. To this end airglow imagers have recently been installed at South Pole (90 ◦ S) (Ejiri et al. 1999) suggest that PMSE in the southern hemisphere are weaker than their northern counterparts. 1999) and Halley (76 ◦ S. The third method of investigating whether upward-propagating gravity wave activity is weaker in the Antarctic than in the Arctic is to directly observe how the gravity wave ﬁeld in the Antarctic mesosphere compares with that used in numerical computer models of the atmosphere. 2000b). JARVIS urements from 88 km altitude over South Pole which show transitory reductions over a period of a few hours to values as low as 130 K at the end of May and August – ﬁve and four months respectively from summer solstice. Few measurements have yet been made in the Antarctic. Observation of the gravity wave ﬁeld suffers from its dependence on darkness and clear skies and thus south of the Antarctic Circle is not possible for the scientiﬁcally critical summer solstice period.
ANTARCTICA’S ROLE IN UNDERSTANDING CHANGE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE 165 4.S. Clilverd et al. New Zealand. nor the result of outward E × B drift of plasma. The Effect of the Geomagnetic Field In addition to long-term change triggered by changes in the atmosphere itself.e.. Clilverd et al. Argentine Islands. These comparisons did demonstrate that it was likely that the depletions were neither solely the result of modiﬁcations to the chemical balance or electron concentration in the thermosphere. we must consider what long-term changes are driven by geomagnetic and extraterrestrial processes. (2000a) monitored VLF radio waves received at Faraday Research Station. 1910). Exactly which ﬁeld line the signals travelled along (i. (2000a) but these did not clearly identify any mechanism. In addition these depletions seen at both Faraday and Dunedin were even deeper than those observed in 1958 and 1961 Carpenter (1962) using naturally occurring whistlers. independent of the time of year.e. which were transmitted from the opposite hemisphere by two U. Whistler-mode electromagnetic signals propagated along the geomagnetic ﬁeld lines from the northern to the southern hemisphere. but Antarctica also offers the opportunity to assess what change might be occurring even higher in altitude where the atmosphere is completely ionised. For instance. indicated by changes to the aa index.S. Using this method. They showed that changes due to drifting magnetic latitude of the sites used to derive the aa index would be barely signi- . Clilverd et al. their group delay being determined by the ﬁeld line length and the plasma density along it. on the Antarctic Peninsula and at Dunedin. These results suggest some long-term change in the plasmasphere taking place over a timescale of at least 38 years. (1998) demonstrated that all phases of the solar cycle have shown an enhancement in geomagnetic activity. the L-shell of the magnetospheric duct) was determined from the difference in group delay time for the two different transmitting frequencies.. Navy transmitters in the U. The group delay time was measured by direct comparison with the travel time of the subionospheric signal and provided an estimation of tubular plasmaspheric electron concentration along the ﬁeld line. there may be some as yet unexplained link between the greater storm-time plasmaspheric depletions and an increase in geomagnetic activity. (2000a) studied the depletion of the plasmasphere in the aftermath of magnetic storms and found that depletions during the solar minimum of 1995 were signiﬁcantly deeper than during the minimum of 1986. Analytical and numerical model comparisons with the depletion data were carried out by Clilverd et al.A. 5. The Plasmasphere So far we have discussed only signatures of change to the neutral atmosphere. since solar cycle 14 (i. but what this change might be is difﬁcult to determine until the exact cause of the plasmaspheric depletions is understood. The depletion factor was approximately 2 in 1986 but was 3–4 in 1995.
1999) and hence changes in charged particle precipitation into the upper atmosphere which in turn can change nitric oxide concentration. (1999).166 MARTIN J. JARVIS ﬁcant and that the prime cause of the aa index increase was an increase in solar activity. An example of this is demonstrated by Crowley et al. on NO production. However. the geographic and geomagnetic invariant poles are separated by 17◦ of latitude in the Antarctic (see Figure 2). For both short-term atmospheric variability and long-term atmospheric change. that this geomagnetic-geographic offset becomes most dominant in its role on the physics and chemistry of the atmosphere.. the Antarctic provides the best location for separating the signatures of geomagnetically controlled processes from those dependent on the Earth’s orbital geometry (e. limb-scanned satellite measurements of nitric oxide at around 105 km altitude at equinox show a 25% hemispheric asymmetry: smaller values of NO concentration are found in the southern hemisphere than in the northern hemisphere. (1999) note. compared to only 11◦ in the Arctic. In this paper those changes have been mapped . solar radiation and meteoric bombardment). The reason for this is the large offset between the geographic south pole and the geomagnetic south pole. which is magnetospherically conﬁgured. (1999) who highlight the implications of presenting nitric oxide observations in the geographic coordinate system. It is in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere which together form the transition region between the fully-ionised collisionless plasma of geospace and the virtually unionised collision-dominated air of the troposphere and stratosphere.g. It is readily apparent that minor species can have a dramatic long-term effect on the upper atmosphere and this means of separating causal mechanisms is more effective in the Antarctic than in the Arctic because of the greater offset of the poles there. This eccentricity of the southern geomagnetic lines of latitude enables comparison of records from geophysical observatories with a similar geomagnetic latitude but with a variety of geographic latitudes (or vice versa) and hence the isolation of phenomena driven by changes in the internally-generated geomagnetic ﬁeld or by externally-driven changes to the balance of the magnetosphere from those driven by solar zenith angle or geographic symmetry. this result is a clear demonstration of the importance of the geographic-geomagnetic polar offset for understanding magnetospheric and solar inﬂuences on various minor species in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. As Crowley et al. Secular changes in solar magnetic activity produce statistical changes in the position of the auroral oval (Feynman and Ruzmaikin. That such an increase in solar activity has occurred has been indicated by Lockwood et al. when viewed in geomagnetic coordinates the asymmetry disappears belying the importance of charged particle precipitation. which prevails as standard practice amongst chemists. In geographic coordinates. The changes over 90 years in the location of the equatorward edge of the auroral oval for speciﬁed ‘quiet’ and ‘disturbed’ geomagnetic activity levels which were presented by Feynman and Ruzmaikin (1999) (their Figure 4) for the northern hemisphere.
ANTARCTICA’S ROLE IN UNDERSTANDING CHANGE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE 167 Figure 5. Heliomagnetic Inﬂuence Lockwood et al. 6. They also showed that the aa index appears to make a good proxy for these magnetic ﬁeld measurements and hence. The equatorward movement (indicated by shading) over 90 years starting in 1904 of the position of the equatorward edge of the auroral oval under both quiet and disturbed geomagnetic conditions. (1999) inferred from near-Earth interplanetary magnetic ﬁeld measurements that the total magnetic ﬂux leaving the Sun has increased by a factor of 1. Solar radiance and solar magnetic activity both directly and indirectly affect the balance of the upper atmosphere. Also marked are the positions of the research stations named in Figure 2. Solar radiance directly heats the upper atmosphere but also changes the climatology in the lower atmosphere which then .3 since 1901.4 between 1964 and 1995. This has been mapped here as the geomagnetic conjugate to the northern hemisphere result of Feynman and Ruzmaikin (1999). to their magnetic conjugate positions in the southern hemisphere and these are shown in Figure 5. by inference from earlier aa records. they suggest that the magnetic ﬂux leaving the Sun has increased by a factor of 2. Longer-term variations than these can only be modelled using some other permanently preserved proxy to extrapolate back in time.
Shea et al. JARVIS feeds back to the upper atmosphere through changes in upward-propagating wave ﬁelds and hence momentum forcing of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. The clearest demonstration of this effect is the Forbush decrease observed before geomagnetic storms (Forbush.168 MARTIN J. This reduction in the cosmic ray ﬂux leads to a reduction in the production of cosmogenic radionuclides in the atmosphere. It is also relatively unaffected by anthropogenic inﬂuences (Beer et al.. Tinsley and Deen (1991) correlated cyclone intensity in the northern hemisphere with cosmic ray ﬂux on a decadal timescale. Veretenenko and Pudovkin (1994) observationally correlated a 10% change of cloud cover at 50–60◦ geomagnetic latitude . Dreschhoff and Zeller (1998) have demonstrated that Antarctic ice cores can also be used to provide a historical record of major solar proton events. (1990) compared 10 Be in polar ice-core records with the aa index over a period >100 years and demonstrated that the 10 Be provides a possible proxy for heliomagnetic activity. Feynman and Ruzmaikin (1999) have noted that there are two ways that the long-term increase in solar wind noted by Lockwood et al.. For instance.g. The greatest uncertainty in interpretation were short-term ﬂuctuations presumed due to changes in precipitation rate. First. On shorter time scales. Cosmic rays have been suggested as a missing link between solar output and terrestrial weather. it is well documented that the solar wind suppresses the cosmic ray ﬂux reaching the earth (e. A longterm decrease in cosmic ray ﬂux has been observed by Stozhkov et al. It deﬂects cosmic rays. particularly those with the lowest energies. and consequently Beer et al. 1937). (2000) and argued by Ahuwalia (2000) to be of solar inﬂuence. There is evidence that solar irradiance and solar magnetic activity are positively correlated (Willson et al. 1986). atmospheric mixing and scavenging efﬁciency but Beer et al. Jackman et al. 10 Be has a short lifetime in the atmosphere (compared to 14 C. from penetrating the Earth’s atmosphere. the Forbush decrease) and thus an increased solar wind will lead to a decrease in cosmic ray ﬂux. (1999) might affect tropospheric cloud cover and hence climate change. (1990) have suggested that 10 Be can be used as the permanently preserved proxy needed to study variations in solar activity pre-dating accurate solar records. The magnetic ﬁeld frozen into the solar wind is dependent upon solar activity. (2000) have shown that SPEs can produce HOx and NOy constituents in the mesosphere and stratosphere and that these NOy constituents in the stratosphere have the capability of affecting ozone for years past the events. 1990). for example) and is thus best suited to monitoring changes in solar activity on timescales as short as the 11-year solar cycle. with maximum effect at subauroral latitudes. Solar proton events can have a signiﬁcant impact on the upper atmosphere and any long-term changes in their occurrence characteristics could change both the ambient ionised and neutral characteristics. (1990) suggested that a possible way to reduce these uncertainties is to combine records from different sites such as the Antarctic and Arctic with different climate conditions but similar production rates. Beer et al.. (1999) identiﬁed large transient concentrations of nitrates in the cores as signatures of these events.
1985). Second. Vertical Dynamic Coupling Clearly there are poorly understood complex inter-relationships here – ones which could be crucial for understanding the natural variability of our atmospheric environment and how past and future climate changes are inﬂuenced by extraterrestrial processes.. though ignoring the inﬂuence of other known drivers. 27 ◦ W). Svensmark and FriisChristensen (1997) suggested that cosmic rays form a missing link in solar-climate relationships and they relate changes in cosmic ray ﬂux to long-term trends in surface temperature. In a simple comparison. when direct solar insolation is least competitive. (1998). Antarctica.ANTARCTICA’S ROLE IN UNDERSTANDING CHANGE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE 169 with Forbush decreases in the ﬂux of galactic cosmic rays with energies between several hundred MeV and 1 GeV. Changes in cosmic ray ﬂux may then affect surface temperature because of its sensitivity to cloud cover. Jorgansen and Hansen (2000)). Halley has an impressive array of collocated instrumentation . At lower latitudes no effect was apparent. although there is considerable debate about this suggestion (e. This winter dependence is demonstrated in the Wilcox effect (Wilcox et al. 7. this is consistent with a cosmic ray causal mechanism because at low geomagnetic latitudes the geomagnetic ﬁeld shields the Earth from cosmic rays so that particles with energies <1 GeV cannot penetrate to the troposphere (Smart and Shea.. it lies at a relatively high geographic latitude and thus experiences 4 months of continuous darkness in winter. thereby qualifying the high (geographic) latitude atmosphere as a primary region for causal mechanism research. provides a unique opportunity in this respect. here the ﬁeld lines are open to the solar wind and particles of all rigidities and incident from all directions can ﬁnd their way to the troposphere. it is located at a subauroral latitude and yet because of the large offset of the geographic and geomagnetic poles in the southern hemisphere. the increase in solar wind will trigger more magnetospheric storms and substorms which will move the subauroral region further equatorward (see Figure 5) and hence move the latitude of the cloud-effective cosmic ray activity further equatorward also. found a strong correlation between minimum aa geomagnetic index values and the Earth’s surface temperature. In the polar cap the effect was more complex and less clearly determinable. 1973) relating solar sector boundary crossings to the atmospheric vorticity index – a then controversial ﬁnding which Hines and Halevy (1977) examined critically and extensively and were obliged to concede to the physical reality of the correlation. Cliver et al. Second. To study these relationships further there is a need both for long-term data series of a global nature and for collocated measurements from a host of instrumentation looking at all aspects of the atmospheric and solar-terrestrial environment on shorter timescales. First. Goldberg (1979) noted that many Sun-weather relationships show their best correlation at high latitudes during local winter. Halley Research Station (76 ◦ S.g.
Ground-based observations can provide temporal continuity at a ﬁxed geographic location. 8. often going back to the pre-satellite era. and the ability to observe small scale phenomena. 105 km) is sensitive to changes in that upper boundary which. Consequently the wave ﬁeld between the ground and the lower thermosphere (e. They showed that the presence of planetary waves coupled the upper and lower atmospheres through a feedback mechanism where planetary waves actively modify the atmospheric winds which in turn affect the propagation of the waves. 1998). situated at a growing number of sites around the Antarctic (e. To this end the growing network of SuperDARN radars (Greenwald et al. in turn. JARVIS routinely measuring a multitude of atmospheric parameters from the troposphere right through to the magnetosphere. For example. rocket-launched falling spheres and satellite-based limb-scanning provide complementary mesospheric . A circumpolar network of mesospheric wind radars. additional feedbacks.. Rothera.170 MARTIN J.. satellite drag observations and ionosonde observations are able to corroborate thermospheric temperature changes through completely independent techniques. 1995) may also prove highly beneﬁcial due to their ability to monitor planetary waves in meteor winds (Jenkins et al. Summary In all the research areas discussed in this paper there is a need for a multiplicity of observations and a growing requirement to understand the atmospheric processes in the context of the whole ‘Earth system’.. Satellites have the obvious advantage that they can provide much greater geographic coverage but at the expense of often having poorer spatial resolution and usually sampling in a ﬁxed or slowly drifting local time sector. This will require observations at all levels of the atmosphere using a combination of both ground-based and satellite observing techniques. Davis. is sensitive to solar cycle input. Climate change in the troposphere will produce changes in the upper atmosphere. Halley).g. Planetary waves are important in the bulk transport of chemical constituents in the middle atmosphere and there will consequently be other. Many examples of the complementary nature of ground-based and satellite data have been shown here.g. McMurdo. The Antarctic is an ideal location for studying such effects because of the pole-centred topology of the continent and the extremes of sunlight encountered even as high as the lower thermosphere. The converse is also true. For instance.. Arnold and Robinson (1998) computationally explored the ways in which the propagation of planetary-scale waves between the troposphere and thermosphere responds to solar-cycle-induced changes. Antarctic-Arctic differences in satellite observations of PMC complement Antarctic-Arctic differences in ground–based observations of PMSE strength. will enable planetary wave modal and propagation characteristics to be determined and compared to prevailing lower thermospheric conditions. The lower and upper atmospheres cannot be considered in isolation.
satellite measurements of the interplanetary magnetic ﬁeld provide a benchmark for the use of the aa index as a proxy for the Sun’s magnetic ﬂux going back 100 years. The issues are complex and much research is needed. Therefore no one area of the world can be isolated for carrying out such research. a subauroral location with months of continuous darkness for investigating sun-weather relationships and their long-term consequences.ANTARCTICA’S ROLE IN UNDERSTANDING CHANGE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE 171 temperature data. Even more importantly Antarctica has a unique role to play in several speciﬁc areas of long-term change study regarding the upper atmosphere. and a pole-centred land-base for studying feedbacks between the upper and lower atmospheres through planetary wave activity and the subsequent signatures of tropospheric trends in the upper atmosphere. studies in the Antarctic are essential in order to prove that any upper atmospheric changes observed elsewhere in the world are. Long–term change tends by its very nature to be a global phenomena. indeed. Research stations on the Antarctic peninsula have a role to play in investigating trends in plasmaspheric storm response because of their geomagnetic position in the Southern Hemisphere with respect to northern hemisphere VLF transmitters. The Antarctic also offers the potential of permanently preserved records of solar activity and solar proton events in ice-cores. Not only does this provide a ‘clean’ environment for carrying out trend measurements. In this role Antarctica stands out from all other continents. However. It is particularly important in this work because high geographic latitude stations there have relatively low geomagnetic latitudes. It is the most isolated from human inﬂuence having low levels of direct pollution from chemicals (including greenhouse gases). but any lasting residual inﬂuence of these pollutants detected in Antarctica will tend to represent a global mean. historical ground-based geomagnetic data and recent satellite data can be used to study different aspects of the effect of geomagnetic storms on the upper atmosphere. global in nature and not the result of some localised phenomenon. In all these cases the scientiﬁc value of having both ground-based and satellite data far outweighs the scientiﬁc value of the sum of the parts. particulates. This will be partly based on the excellent long-term data series that have been taken in Antarctica by scientists of many nations since the International Geophysical Year in 1957 and partly based upon new observations from the expanding network of upper atmospheric instrumentation around the Antarctic combined with that from upcoming satellite missions such as TIMED and Odin. electromagnetic radiation and direct heating. Ionospheric soundings from Antarctica will help unravel the problem of why different regions of the world observe different trends in the height of Fregion peak electron density. . either natural or anthropogenic. Comparison between the Antarctic and Arctic will enable us to understand the balance of mechanisms behind mesospheric energetics and hence the reason behind trends in mesospheric temperature and noctilucent cloud occurrence.
Res.D.: (2000b). Geophys. 1035–1038.J. S.. 69–76. Phys. Sato. J. A. Clarke. Res. Plasmaspheric storm time erosion.. The Netherlands. 27. Taylor.: (1990). D. Atmos.. E. Res.: (1990). Res. W. B. Scharber. Aikin A. P. Use of 10 Be in polar ice to trace the 11-year cycle of solar activity. J. Geophys. JARVIS References Ahuwalia. and Rishbeth.M. Stauffer. Trends in the ionospheric E and F regions over Europe. 164–347. Shefov.: (1962).. 59.. and Wolﬂi. Hofmann. 1505–1511. Ionospheric trends in mid-latitudes as a possible indicator of the atmospheric greenhouse effect. Sapporo. Temperature trends in the lower mesosphere. Bremer. Clilverd M.. An experimental search for causal mechanisms in Sun/weather-climatic relationships. T. and Haurwitz.. Sigg.. D. Staffelbach. Ann. G. and Robinson. p328. 51. Fogle. 1545–1548. Studying mesospheric dynamics in the Antarctic using the upgraded instrument cluster at Halley. A. 25. Ultra-high resolution nitrate in polar ice as indicator of past solar activity. 2997–13008. Japanese research project on Arctic and Antarctic observations of the middle atmosphere. 52..: (1999). Beer J..C. Tsutsumi.V. Rev. G.: (1998). E. Geophys. Lett..: (2000). Long-term temperature trends in the middle and upper atmosphere. Atmos. E.: (1979). N. Dreschhoff. D. T.L.C. Fishkova.. and Ruzmaikin. Terr. M. M. R.. Reidel. H.. N. Geophysicae 16. 161–174. Feynman. and Perov. Clilverd M. Finkel. and Okano. B. 135–145. 416–419. Aso. Frahm.. A.: (1998). J. Lett. G. Rev.V.. and Kendig. Solar cycle changes to planetary wave propagation and their inﬂuence on the middle atmosphere circulation.B.: (1992). M. T.-L.: (2000a). Field. Boriakoff. R. J. L.A. 986–996. 1108–1109. New experimental evidence of the effect of magnetic storms on the magnetosphere. 18.J. T. Arnold. Danilov. Winningham. N.A.. Ridley. 279–340.F. Blinov. A secular change in noctilucent cloud occurrence.D. J. and Russell III. Solar Physics 177.: (1999). Res. Noctilucent clouds.G. G.W.-Terr. Ann.: (1998). 2057–2060. J. Lett. Gadsden.. B. H. Espy. H. A. Suter. . Japan. B. Bremer. Bonani. A. Goldberg.. Lysenko.).. J. Res.: (1966).S. 26. M. M. Res.: (1937). and Zeller.J.: (1998).P.A. Space Res. M. Adv.N. Cliver. 26. 1741– 1744.-Terr. Space Sci. Nash. Geophys. J. R.: (1997). P. J. M. On galactic cosmic ray ﬂux decrease near solar minima and IMF intensity. 1689–1692. and Rose.: (1998). Geophys. Atmos.S. J. 54. S. Jenkins. E. Increased magnetic storm activity from 1868 to 1995. Golitsyn. H. F2-layer parameters long-term trends at the Argentine Islands and Port Stanley stations.: (2001).J. B. Terr. Res. D. McCorinac and T. Sol. A. The response of the ionospheric F2-layer to geomagnetic activity: an analysis of worldwide data.: (1999). 6. V. Clark. Lett. Phys.. Phys.. M. Ann. Clilverd M. Solar-terrestrial Inﬂuences on Weather and Climate..J. A. in B.. 365–374.172 MARTIN J.R.. Jarvis. 1047–1056. and Thomson.. Rishbeth.C. and Feynman. Solar variability and climate change: Geomagnetic aa index and global surface temperature.. Nature 347.A. Forbush S. Schwander. 247–251.. 60. Seliga (eds. Geophysicae 19.. Taguchi. Chanin. H.E. J. and Mikhailov. Modulation of cosmic ray precipitation related to climate. In First S-RAMP Conference. Geophys. Geophys. Seminov. 76. M. Geophys. Lett. 23. On the hemispheric symmetry in thermsopheric nitric oxide.I. pp. On the effects in cosmic ray intensity observed during the recent magnetic storm. J.: (1996)..R. Carpenter. Sol. Phys. N.M.: (1991). 105.. Okada. Atmos..A. Oeschger. 163–180.. 1603–1606. 24(12).. Phys. Crowley. Lett. J. Ejiri M. Geophysicae 16. J. 341–349. Lehmann.
Nielson. 33. An observation of noctilucent cloud in Antarctic winter.M. C. J.-J.M. 9135–9149... Geophys. Jarvis M..A. Lett. Jarvis. F. J..: (1977). Phys... Southern hemisphere observations of a longterm decrease in F-region altitude and thermospheric wind providing possible evidence for global thermospheric cooling. Res. Noctilucent clouds and the thermal structure near the Arctic mesopause in summer. Res. Tolson. and Jones. 27. Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. M. M.. T. N. Phys. J. Harris. A. E. J. J. Stratospheric and mesospheric cooling trend estimates from US rocketsondes at low latitude stations (8◦ S–34◦ N). Mesospheric wind observations derived from Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) HF radar meteor echoes at Halley.). S. Res..B.: (1991). Hines.: (1999). J. Thermal structure of the mesopause region at polar latitudes. Res. Keckhut P. pp. temperatures. Lübken F. 62. 105.B. M. Lett. Geophys. Kattenberg. 4189–4197. Hauchecorne. Rev. D..O. Sato. F. Fricke. Res. B. Atmos. A. 61. P. 20841–20857.L. Meehl.D.J. and Keckhut. Walker. Tokioka. Atmos.. J. J.: (2000). Lett. Senior.F. 382–404.. B.M. Dudeney. K. and Wild. 1523–1526. T.ANTARCTICA’S ROLE IN UNDERSTANDING CHANGE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE 173 Greenwald. M. A. M. On the reality and nature of a certain Sun-weather correlation... Nearly zero temperature trend in the polar summer mesosphere.: (1998). Geophys. Jones. . C. Lübken.O. 73–77. L. Jorgansen..: (1999). 447–459. G..-Terr. A doubling of the Sun’s coronal magnetic ﬁeld during the past 100 years. Langer. J. R. M. Isolation of major Venus cooling mechanism and implications for Earth and Mars. N. F.-L.B.A. Lübken. E. Keating.T. Hunsucker. Villain. Cambridge. 104. Baker. Res. Geophys.H. Comments on ‘Variation of cosmic ray ﬂux and global cloud coverage – a missing link in solar terrestrial relationships’. 97.M. J. and Wigley. R. Jenkins. G. 96. Jarvis.: (1991). taking into account instrumental changes and natural variability. 101.M. Grifﬁths. and Bradford. and Rodgers. R. Weather 42.C. Geophys. Climatology and trends in the middle atmosphere temperature (33–87 km) as seen by Rayleigh lidar over France..C.-J.A. U..L. M.D.C. Weaver. K. 71. 3581–3584. H. and Balsley. Sol. Nature 399. and Shanklin..D. Hanuise. R. Chanin. T.A. 26.P.J.: (1996).: (1999). F. and Bougher. 103. Cerisier.: (2000). Geophys. Inﬂuence of extremely large solar proton events in a changing stratosphere. H. F.A.: (1987). Geophys.. B. Geophys. and Halevy. J. Geophys. Stamper.J... I. 34.H. E. A.S. Sol. Hauchecorne. Radio Sci. 761–793.. A. 1529–1532. G. Differences in near-mesopause summer winds. B.W. Lett. J. Pellinen.. and Yamagishi.. Giorgi.-J.K. Houghton. in J.. Cambridge University Press. 391.. Fleming. 15297–15309. Atmos. Keating. A. Geophys.M. J.: (2000).W...-L.J. C. G. M. 96. Kattenberg and K. First in situ temperature measurements at the Antarctic summer mesopause. and Vitt.. 957–965. Thomas. Res.-Terr.: (1999).. Space Sci. F. Lübken.. A. Stouffer. 3603–3606. and Chanin. Res. and Von Zahn.L. Sci.: (2000). 9489–9508.: (1995). Lübken. Evidence of long term global decline in the Earth’s thermospheric densities apparently related to anthropogenic effects. F. Lockwood M. and water vapor at northern and southern latitudes as possible causal factors for inter-hemispheric PMSE differences.. Callander.B. M. 26. Res. Sofko. Res. 437–439.. U.: (1996).H. Geophys. J.. 20774–20787. DARN/SuperDARN: a global view of the dynamics of high-latitude convection.-J.M. G.S.N.: (1998).: (1999). Pinnock. Filho. Res.-J. Antarctica: Preliminary results. G. 285–357. and Hansen. and Forbes. J. Maskell (eds. Thermal structure of the Arctic summer mesosphere. Climate models – projections of future climate.: (1992). 27. Grassi. T. Jackman C. 11659–11670. J. R.J. Huaman. Jenkins. L. Mitchell. Schmidlin. R.J. Koehler.R.
JARVIS Mikhailov. J. Atmos. G. and Thomas. E. Lett.. J. A statistical study of gravity waves in the polar regions based on radiosonde data.F. Aquino. Svensmark H. Terr.M. Roberts. 1963–1995. 2059–2063.: (2000). J.. H. and Berendorf. Y. P. Res. Huaman. Noctilucent cloud observed in late April at South Pole Station: temperature anomaly or meteoritic dust? J.P. Yoshiki M.: (1997). J. in A. and Marin. Identiﬁcation of major proton ﬂuence events from nitrates in polar ice cores. Woodman. R. Thomas.W.J. S. and Deen. Sarango. 43.A. B. S. Geomagnetic control of foF2 trends.F.. G. Balsley. A. M. M. First observations of polar mesospheric summer echoes in Antarctica.V.: (1999). J. Thomas. 104...: (1999).E. Stozhkov. Geophys. and Sato. 96. Effects of Forbush decrease of galactic cosmic rays in variation of general cloudiness. Long term negative trend in cosmic ray ﬂux. G.174 MARTIN J. Lab.G. G. Smart D. Shea.: (1988). J. Atmos.. Hernandez. Geophys. G.. Flores. Geophys.E.: (1985). F. 1263–1274. G. and Dickinson. V. 945–948.: (1986). L. 309–316. R. Phys. K. Ulich. J.. and Dreschhoff. 1991–2000. 9–17. Science 234..: (1973). and Okhlopkov. Geophys. Geophys. Scherrer. Vazqez.: (1991). Apparent response to MeV–GeV particle-ﬂux variations – a connection via electrofreezing of supercooled water in high-level clouds. How will changes in carbon dioxide and methane modify the mean structure of the mesosphere and thermosphere? Geophys. 368. Terr.: (2000).H..: (2000).D. Res.: (1996). D. Reply. Res. Global change in the mesosphere-lower thermosphere region: has it already arrived? J. R. K.W. M. Smart.A. 22577–22590. Res. R.H.: (1986). Veretenenko. Warren. Phys. MA. and Shea. J. Science 180. Space Sci. H.E. Olivero J. Atmos.: (1997). and Brusa. Geophysicae 18. 59.). Willson R. Geomagnetizm I Aeronomiya 34. Space Res. 102. and Smith. Ann.: (1997). 58(14). 1103–1106. 105. 1629–1656. Handbook of Geophysics and Space Environment. Shanklin.: (1994).G. P. Solar magnetic structure: inﬂuence on stratospheric circulation.: (1989). 38–44.. 185–186. L. and FriisChristensen. W. Frohlich. 1114–1117.S. 653–665.E. Res. Bedford.A. 1225–1232.I. 38.: (1990). Res. E. Tinsley.B. 43. A greenhouse effect in the ionosphere? Planet.. C. and Soldi. Evidence for long-term cooling of the upper atmosphere in ionosonde data. E. Air Force Geophys. 1441–1444. D. Climatology of polar mesospheric clouds. Radiation Measurements 30.. Variation of cosmic ray ﬂux and global cloud coverage – a missing link in solar-climate relationships. Roble. R. 17995–18011. Galactic cosmic radiation and solar energetic particles. 380. . Long-term decrease of mesospheric temperature. Geophys. Pokrevsky. and Olson.V. 20(11). 105. M. Jursa (ed.M. Long-term downward trend in total solar irradiance.. inferred from radiowave reﬂection heights. 16.I..C.. Sci. T. Taubenheim. Entzian. Lett. Svalgaard. R. 24. and Pudovkin. Res. Adv. B.O.W. and Turunen. J.F.A. Rishbeth H. G. Wilcox. M. 22283–22296.M. Weather 43.: (1997). Hudson..
This action might not be possible to undo. Are you sure you want to continue?
We've moved you to where you read on your other device.
Get the full title to continue reading from where you left off, or restart the preview.