Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Leclerc · Ernesto U. Savona
Editors
Crime
Prevention
in the 21st
Century
Insightful Approaches for Crime
Prevention Initiatives
Crime Prevention in the 21st Century
Benoit Leclerc • Ernesto U. Savona
Editors
Crime Prevention
in the 21st Century
Insightful Approaches for Crime Prevention
Initiatives
Editors
Benoit Leclerc Ernesto U. Savona
School of Criminology and Criminal Justice Università Cattolica del Sacro
Griffith University Cuore-Transcrime
Brisbane, QLD, Australia Milano, Italy
We would like to thank the contributors to this volume for assisting in the peer
review process of the manuscripts included in this volume. We would also like to
thank Peter Bell, Rick Brown, Jesse Cale, Ron Clarke, Marcus Felson, Mike
Maxfield, Carlo Morselli, Janet Ransley, Danielle Reynald, and Clifford Shearing
for their assistance in the peer review process.
v
Contents
vii
viii Contents
xi
xii Contributors
xiii
Chapter 1
Crime Prevention in the Twenty-First Century
Even though statistics tend to show a decline of crime generally in the last decade
(Tonry, 2013), there are a number of crimes that represent and/or are perceived as a
serious and constant threat to people’s safety and the society. Terrorism is one
example. The emergence of the Islamic State in the summer of 2014 was alerted by
the media rather than by intelligence analysts. Like the 9/11 terrorist attack, this
seems to be an incident from which a lesson can be learned on the difficulty of pre-
dicting and preventing terrorism at a global level. The development of the Islamic
State was a gradual process that required time in recruitment, funding and arming.
It appears that there is no tangible explanation to date why intelligence agencies of
many governments, private businesses involved in the oil industry, organisations
selling weapons and others did not inform authorities of their reference points of the
signal that a new terrorism was emerging in the north of Iraq. Assuming that this
information was in circulation, difficulties in managing, interpreting and translating
data coming from different sources may have slowed down the process leading to an
alert from authorities. On the face of it, we have to admit that the prevention of ter-
rorism has failed to date.
Terrorism, like other forms of crime, raises doubts on the efficacy of the tradi-
tional instruments of criminal justice system (i.e. investigation-prosecution-
conviction) to prevent crime. It can be argued that the criminal justice system is not
well equipped to combat a crime in which offenders are ready to sacrifice their life
to kill other people. In the scale of complex or emerging criminal phenomenon, ter-
rorism is arguably the most difficult to prevent because the costs and benefits of
B. Leclerc (*)
School of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Griffith University,
176 Messines Ridge Road, Mt Gravatt Campus, Brisbane, QLD 4122, Australia
e-mail: b.leclerc@griffith.edu.au
E.U. Savona
Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore-Transcrime, Largo Gemelli 1, 20123 Milano, Italy
e-mail: ernesto.savona@unicatt.it
a section that covers the technologies of crime prevention. A seventh and final
approach is the design and use of technologies to protect potential targets from
crime (e.g., Farrell, Tseloni, Mailley, & Tilley, 2011).
This edited collection brings together a series of original contributions written by
who we believe are innovative thinkers dedicated to crime prevention. This collec-
tion is divided according to the list of approaches above. Each section focuses on
one particular approach, which includes one theoretical chapter to introduce the
approach of interest but also empirical/applied contribution(s) to showcase how it
can be applied. Specifically, theoretical contributions aim to introduce and explain
the approach and discuss under which circumstances it could better assist crime
prevention initiatives. Empirical/applied contributions are used to illustrate the
potential of the approach for crime prevention through its application to a particular
crime problem. Obviously not all possible crime prevention approaches are covered
in this collection. Efforts have been made to include approaches that we thought
would be most relevant for the future of crime prevention at the time this collection
was initiated.
Chapters 2–4 focus on offender-based research. Chapter 2, by Jacques and
Bonobo, introduces offender-based research by illustrating five ways through which
this approach can be used to inform crime prevention. Jacques and Bonobo make a
strong case of the relevance of offender-based research for crime prevention. They
conclude by discussing the choices involved in conducting offender-based research
for the purposes of situational crime prevention. In Chapter 3, Lindegaard and
Bernasco illustrate the potential of offender-based research for crime prevention by
examining why prospective offenders sometimes do not perpetrate their crimes they
anticipated to commit. Using a sample of robbers, they seek to distinguish aborted
robberies from those that are committed as well as the mechanisms and the ratio-
nales underlying aborted robberies. Subjective reasons for aborting anticipated rob-
beries include expected police and bystander interventions. Gill, in Chapter 4,
borrows the term ‘iatrogenic effects’ from medical science to showcase the impor-
tance of learning through offenders why a number of prevention measures do not
work—the ‘iatrogenic effects’ of crime prevention. Gill argues that ‘iatrogenic
effects’ have much to offer to get an understanding of crime prevention failures.
The emphasis of Chapters 5–7 is on crime script analysis. In Chapter 5, Leclerc
presents an overview of crime script analysis and then promotes its practice for
understanding and preventing crime events. Leclerc uses the SCRIPT acronym
(systematic, compatible, resilient, insightful, practical and theoretically grounded)
to showcase the qualities inherent to script analysis for crime prevention purposes.
Chiu and Leclerc, in Chapter 6, seek to better understand the crime-commission
processes involved in sexual offenses against women by acquaintances and identify
key intervention points by using crime scripts. A script comprising eight stages is
identified through court transcripts, and prevention measures are derived by using
the problem analysis triangle. In Chapter 7, Smith uses crime scripts from the per-
spective of taxi drivers as victims of robbery. Through data obtained from taxi driv-
ers, three main types of scripts are identified. Then Smith discusses potential
situational prevention measures to prevent robberies, or limit their potential negative
4 B. Leclerc and E.U. Savona
References
Anselin, L., Griffiths, E., & Tita, G. (2008). Crime mapping and hot spot analysis. In R. Wortley &
L. Mazerolle (Eds.), Environmental criminology and crime analysis. Cullompton, UK: Willan.
Bernasco, W. (Ed.). (2010). Offenders on offending: Learning about crime from criminals.
Cullompton, UK: Willan.
Birks, D. (2016). Formal models of the crime event: Agent-based modelling in support of crime
prevention. In B. Leclerc & E. U. Savona (Eds.), Crime prevention in the 21st century:
Insightful approaches for crime prevention initiatives. New York: Springer.
Clarke, R. V., & Newman, G. R. (2006). Outsmarting the terrorist. Westport, CT: Praeger Security
International.
Cornish, D. B. (1994). The procedural analysis of offending and its relevance for situational pre-
vention. In R. V. Clarke (Ed.), Crime prevention studies (Vol. 3). Monsey, NY: Criminal Justice
Press.
Cornish, D. B., & Clarke, R. V. (2003). Opportunities, precipitators and criminal decisions: A reply
to Wortley’s critique of situational crime prevention. In M. J. Smith & D. B. Cornish (Eds.),
Theory for practice in situational crime prevention (Crime Prevention Studies, Vol. 16).
Monsey, NY: Criminal Justice Press.
Farrell, G., Tseloni, A., Mailley, J., & Tilley, N. (2011). The crime drop and the security hypothesis.
Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 48, 147–175.
Jacques, S., & Bonobo, E. (2016). Learning from the offenders’ perspective on crime prevention.
In B. Leclerc & E. U. Savona (Eds.), Crime prevention in the 21st century: Insightful
approaches for crime prevention initiatives. New York: Springer.
Leclerc, B., & Wortley, R. (Eds.). (2013). Cognition and crime: Offender decision making and
script analyses (Crime Science Series). London, UK: Routledge.
Lum, C., Kennedy, L., & Sherley, A (2006–2009). The effectiveness of counter-terrorism strate-
gies: A Campbell systematic review. Fairfax, VA: The Campbell Collaboration.
Makkai, T., & Prenzler, T. (2011). The nature and prevalence of crime. In H. Hayes & T. Prenzler
(Eds.), An introduction to crime and criminology (3rd ed.). Frenchs Forest, NSW: Pearson
Education.
Morselli, C. (Ed.). (2014). Crime and networks. New York: Routledge.
Savona, E. U. (2006). Double thematic issue on: Proofing EU legislation against crime. European
Journal on Criminal Policy and Research, 12, 177–178.
Tonry, M. (2013). Understanding crime trends in Italy and elsewhere. In S. Caneppele &
F. Calderoni (Eds.), Organized crime, corruption and crime prevention: Essays in honor of
Ernesto U. Savona. New York: Springer.
Townsley, M. (2016). Crime mapping and spatial analysis. In B. Leclerc & E. U. Savona (Eds.),
Crime prevention in the 21st century: Insightful approaches for crime prevention initiatives.
New York: Springer.
Part I
The Offenders’ Perspective on Crime
Prevention
Chapter 2
Learning from the Offenders’ Perspective
on Crime Prevention
Introduction
To learn about crime, including how to prevent it, criminologists should go to the
source. As a collective, criminals are the preeminent source of knowledge on crime.1
They have a firsthand perspective on what motivates the decision to break the law,
obey it, or abort an in-progress offense. Moreover, offenders are experts on the tech-
nical process involved in committing crime, such as how to steal a vehicle or rob a
pedestrian. And while police and victimization statistics, among other kinds, are
indicative of the crime rate, only the collective knowledge of offenders can truly tell
us how much crime is committed.
In some sense, offenders are not only the “problem” under study but also the
spring from which an answer will be found. This notion serves as part of the basis
for “offender-based research,” or “OBR” for short. Broadly defined, OBR refers to
scholarly work that entails analyzing data collected directly from criminals
(Bernasco, 2010). Examples include everything from the survey of students used by
Hirschi (1969) in Causes of Delinquency to experiments involving offenders (e.g.,
Decker, Wright, & Logie, 1993) and to ethnographies such as Shaw’s The Jack-
Roller (1930) and Sutherland’s (1937) The Professional Thief.
Because offenders are uniquely situated to inform criminology, the potential of
OBR for improving crime prevention is enormous. In this chapter, we outline five
ways that OBR can be used to inform understanding of crime prevention, more
1
Of course, few if any individuals fill a single criminological role. In one situation, for example, a
person may act as an offender, but in another situation be a victim or guardian. Yet for the sake of
simplicity, in this chapter we refer to one role at a time.
S. Jacques (*) • E. Bonomo
Department of Criminal Justice and Criminology, Georgia State University,
P.O. Box 4018, Atlanta, GA 30302, USA
e-mail: sjacques1@gsu.edu
The theoretical premise of SCP is that crime may be prevented by reducing the
characteristics of situations that facilitate offending (Clarke, 2009). The practical
purpose, then, of SCP is to provide a theoretical framework for deducing ways to
block crime opportunities by manipulating the specific situational characteristics
that generate them (Clarke, 2009). To do so, SCP draws on the rational choice and
routine activity perspectives (Clarke & Cornish, 1985; Cohen & Felson, 1979).
The rational choice perspective suggests that an individual’s decision on how
to act is guided by bounded assessments of potential benefit and cost (Bentham,
1988 [1789]). According to this perspective, an individual is more likely to com-
mit an offense when the perceived benefit of doing so is greater or the perceived
risk of incurring cost is smaller (Clarke & Cornish, 1985). Also, a person is more
likely to commit an offense when its perceived utility—i.e., benefits minus
costs—is greater than the utility of obeying the law. Examples of benefits include
money, status, and pride; examples of costs include fines, diminished respecta-
bility, and shame.
Key to the rational choice perspective is that the decision to offend takes place
within a concrete situation, defined as a particular time and place. This is crucial
because situations vary in the opportunities they hold for crime (Cohen & Felson,
1979). One aspect of opportunity is the potential benefit and cost associated with a
particular situation. For instance, the opportunity for robbery is greater when there
is a potential victim with a lot of rather than no cash in possession. And typically,
the opportunity for crime is smaller when a police officer is nearby instead of out of
sight. The second aspect of opportunity is whether the situation presents the mini-
mal elements involved in committing an offense. For example, a motivated offender
cannot rob someone if no one is around to victimize, and a drug distributor cannot
sell his or her product if alone on a deserted island. While such limitations may
seem so obvious as to not even warrant mentioning, their obviousness shows that
opportunity is a crucial component in offending.
Returning to SCP, this framework is based on the notion that a person is less
likely to commit a crime when there is less opportunity, meaning the crime’s poten-
tial benefit is smaller, risk is greater, or the minimal elements to do so are absent.
SCP is more than an academic pursuit, however, as its purpose is to guide real-life
crime prevention efforts. On that note, SCP practices may be categorized as “strate-
gies” or “techniques.” SCP “strategies” are broad, or abstract, notions of how to
introduce discrete managerial and environmental change that helps reduce crime
opportunities (Clarke, 2009). The five strategies of SCP are (1) increasing the effort
and (2) risk involved in lawbreaking and (3) reducing the reward, (4) excuse, and
2 Learning from the Offenders’ Perspective on Crime Prevention 11
(5) provocation to do so (Clarke, 2009). SCP “techniques,” on the other hand, are
specific procedures based on a given strategy. Examples of the five strategies listed
above are, respectively, target hardening, introducing burglars alarms, disrupting
markets, curtailing disputes, and displaying signs that specify the law (for further
examples, see Clarke, 2009).
it is also important to recognize that some hiding places are better than others. As
the authors note, “spare keys are better protected in the home, no matter how well
they are hidden within the vehicle … [and] it is safer to hide valuables, including
spare car keys, in places away from common searching areas. These safer areas
include basements, utility rooms, guest rooms and children’s bedrooms” (Copes &
Cherbonneau, 2006, p. 930). In the language of SCP, what Copes and Cherbonneau
propose is that auto theft can be prevented by increasing the effort involved in
obtaining keys.
Third, OBR can be used to inform SCP by using qualitative findings to refine
what is learned from quantitative analyses. An example relates to Weisburd and col-
leagues’ (2006) analysis of whether geographically targeted crime prevention
efforts cause displacement to nearby, untargeted areas. To test this idea, two areas
with high levels of street-level crime and disorder were subjected to increased police
patrol, which is a way of increasing the risk of offending. Those areas as well as two
neighboring areas were monitored during an experimental period to see whether
offending in the target area “moved around the corner” to the neighboring areas.
The researchers’ quantitative results, which were based on systematic social obser-
vations of the areas, suggest that the increased policing did not displace crime from
one area to the other, but rather reduced offending in both the targeted and nearby
locales. Wisely, the researchers also included an ethnographic component in their
investigation that entailed interviewing offenders. Among other findings, the quali-
tative data showed that some offenders chose a new method of crime commission
rather than quit altogether or move elsewhere. For example, “[r]esearch subjects
began prearranging dates by means of phone or beepers …; quizzing potential cli-
ents to ensure they were not police officers; [and,] disguising their looks and engag-
ing in stealthy solicitation” (Brisgone quoted in Weisburd et al., 2006, p. 581).
These adaptations likely reduced the overall rate of offending because, one, they
take extra time and, two, they are less obvious and therefore less likely to attract
potential customers. Thus, the qualitative findings suggest that increased policing
may have reduced offending not only by increasing its risk but also by increasing
the effort involved.
Related to the above is a fourth way in which OBR can add to understanding
of SCP: by finding out how offenders elude crime prevention efforts. From the
perspective of control agents, the preferred result of implementing an SCP tech-
nique is that offenders choose to stop breaking the law or, if they persist, are
incapacitated via institutionalization. The next best result is for persistent
offenders to commit fewer offenses—a process known as restrictive deterrence
(Gibbs, 1975; Jacobs, 1996). This commonly happens with drug dealers, as
many of them choose to make fewer sales in exchange for diminished risk
(Jacobs, 1999; Jacques & Wright, 2015). For example, selling from known drug
“hot spots” attracts drug buyers but also provokes attention from police; instead,
then, some dealers legitimatize their presence by selling at places known for
non-criminal activities, though this likely reduces their sales as well. St. Jean
(2007) interviewed a Chicago dealer who explained how this tactic undercuts
suspicions:
2 Learning from the Offenders’ Perspective on Crime Prevention 13
The corner stores, fast food joints, check cashing joints, and bus stops are all places where
people be for a purpose. So how you going to tell me I have no reason to be there, or that I
am here to sell dope. You don’t know that. I may be here to wash my clothes, buy a bottle
of water or something else from the corner store … But I can only convince you about this
if the businesses are there. So you see, this is why we hang out in these parts because ain’t
no telling exactly that you here to get or sell dope. (p. 124)
As outlined and illustrated above, there are at least five ways in which OBR can
inform understanding of SCP: (1) by directly determining what works to reduce
crime; (2) generating findings that are suggestive of what prevention measures to
14 S. Jacques and E. Bonomo
invent and employ; (3) refining understanding of why a given prevention method
reduces crime; (4) figuring out how offenders get around particular prevention
measures; and (5) gathering information on not only the positive but also the unin-
tended, negative outcomes of prevention procedures. The first and second ways
inform the extent to which SCP strategies and techniques reduce crime. The third
and fourth lessons also do so, but their unique contribution is determining the
exact mechanism behind a significant or null effect. And the fifth way of learning
involves uncovering the consequences of SCP measures that are less visible until
the offenders’ perspective is taken into account. Thus, these five ways of learning
not only garner knowledge of “what works” in reducing crime—a purely empiri-
cal question—but also illuminate the theoretical forces behind such effects, why
some methods do not work, and the inadvertent but important problems that may
result as well.
Returning to the point made in this chapter’s introduction, OBR is uniquely able
to shed light on these issues. To be clear, there is no doubt that data obtained from
other sources, such as law enforcement officials and victims, can be used to inform
crime prevention. However, if the analytic focus is crime (not “policing,” “victim-
ization,” or whatnot), these other sources are more likely than OBR to result in
indirect or incomplete information. For instance, police statistics are merely a proxy
for crime because what they really measure is the amount of law enforcement
(Black, 1970). And while victim statistics are useful for knowing the extent and
nature of some crime types, like burglary and robbery, they are largely useless for
victimless crimes, which include drug distribution and prostitution. What is more,
offenders are better positioned than others to inform understanding of why and how
they are affected by crime prevention measures. Police, victims, or other non-
offenders may acquire that information somehow, but the source of that knowledge
will always be an offender. There is no getting around it: research with criminals is
the most direct route to information about crime, including how to prevent it.
For OBR to inform SCP, first OBR has to be conducted. In doing so, two major
decision points always arise: What procedure should be used to sample offenders
and should quantitative or qualitative data be obtained? Before closing, we provide
some thoughts on the respective merits of the options, and also briefly discuss the
limitations of OBR broadly.
The two major procedures of sampling offenders are via formal and informal
channels. A formal channel is any government institution that houses or keeps a
population list of (potential) offenders, such as a roster of persons in jail, prison,
high school, or on parole or probation (see, e.g., Copes & Vieraitis, 2012;
Papachristos, Meares, & Fagan, 2012). An informal channel is any route to offend-
ers that does not involve relying on a government institution (see, e.g., Wright &
Decker, 1994, 1997). The formal and informal channels have opposite difficulties.
The major difficulty associated with the formal channel is gaining permission of the
“gatekeeper.” By gatekeeper, we mean an individual who controls access to an insti-
tution and its members. If a gatekeeper’s permission is not obtained, it is practically
impossible to use the institution to facilitate research. With informal sampling, find-
ing offenders and convincing them to participate is the major challenge because
2 Learning from the Offenders’ Perspective on Crime Prevention 15
there is no population list to draw on. For that reason, a researcher who depends on
informal sampling will often recruit offenders who also happen to be friends, fam-
ily, coworkers, or students, and from there build a snowball sample (see, e.g.,
Jacques & Wright, 2008). The difficulty posed by this sampling procedure is that
even the most well-connected researcher will eventually exhaust his or her network
of criminal ties. And for some researchers, such a network will be practically non-
existent to begin with and thereby preclude research getting off the ground. One
way around this particular problem is for a researcher to tap into new networks, such
as by going to a known drug hot spot and trying to recruit there (see, e.g., Jacobs,
1999). Yet that poses another problem, namely the chance of being victimized in the
course of conducting research (Jacobs, 2006; Jacques & Wright, 2010).
Whether a researcher uses a formal or informal channel to sample offenders is a
crucial choice for some research questions. If the major goal of research is some-
thing like obtaining numbers generalizable to a particular population, clearly it is
best to make use of available population lists. A researcher who uses an informal
channel to recruit participants usually cannot make claims about statistical general-
izability because, for one, the true population of offenders is unknown and, even if
it was, informal sampling is rarely if ever truly random sampling (but see Copes,
Jacques, Hochstetler, & Dickinson, 2015). However, it will be better to use an infor-
mal sampling channel if the major goal of the research is more along the lines of
“Why do some offenders not get arrested?” Obviously, it is not possible to study
offenders who are yet to be arrested by sampling individuals who are in jail, prison,
or listed on a parole or probation roster. These are just a couple of examples meant
to illustrate how the different channels of sampling offenders have different strengths
and limitations (for further details, see Copes et al., 2015). If OBR is to reach its
potential for informing SCP, both sampling channels should be used.
Another important consideration for researchers is whether to use quantitative or
qualitative methods. At the simplest level of conceptualization, quantitative research
is based on numbers and qualitative research is not (Jacques, 2014). Analytically, a
major difference between the two is that quantitative research can be used to pro-
duce statistical statements about the significance of effects, whereas qualitative
research can only be used to create theoretically generalizable ideas (Small, 2006).
Thus, quantitative research may often be the better option for determining what SCP
techniques significantly reduce crime. However, the process that goes into conduct-
ing quantitative research often—though not necessarily—requires constraining a
researcher’s attention to a relatively narrow list of preconceived concerns; if this
limitation is not self-imposed, the numbers can become distorted by such things as
the ordering or wording of questions. Qualitative research, on the other hand, is
relatively free from these constraints because the validity of findings is not a statisti-
cal matter. In other words, the limitation of qualitative research is also a virtue in
that it allows for the introduction and discussion of previously unconsidered topics.
Moreover, this freedom facilitates an expanded and more detailed collection of
information. Answers are not boiled down to a number but rather are meant to be
spelled out in detail: exactly why and how a crime was committed, for instance.
Thus, qualitative research may be preferred when the goal is to refine understanding
16 S. Jacques and E. Bonomo
of why a given SCP method reduces crime, figuring out how offenders get around
particular SCP measures, or gathering information on their unintended, negative
consequences.
This chapter has presented a sunny picture of OBR, but this method certainly has
limitations (see Bernasco, 2010; Copes et al., 2015). Perhaps the most widely circu-
lated criticism is “Why should we believe what offenders tell us?” As Richard
Wright puts it, we should expect offenders to lie for the very reason that they are
offenders. In other words, people who break the law are untrustworthy. What is
more, offenders may be motivated to distort the truth because revealing too much is
risky. While there is likely some truth to such assertions, the same can often be said
of victims, police, and other sources of criminological data. For example, victims
may lie to gain justice, and police officers may lie to protect their colleagues. All of
this is to say that offenders are not the only party with “good” reasons to tell less
than the whole truth. Nonetheless, the lessons of OBR for SCP are brought into
question to the extent that offenders are providing researchers with fiction.
In conclusion, we would like to emphasize that the five lessons of OBR for SCP
should not be thought of as independent ventures, but rather as a curriculum. Each
of the ways OBR contributes to knowledge of SCP is useful in its own right, but also
because each lesson informs the totality. Whether, for example, an SCP technique
effective in reducing crime is important, but knowing the full utility of a technique
also depends on knowing what, if anything, are its unintended, negative conse-
quences. And figuring out how offenders circumvent particular SCP techniques
may be used to improve or build the repertoire of effective methods available to
control agents. In short, unlocking the full potential of OBR for informing SCP will
require research geared toward all of its lessons.
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trol. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
Chapter 3
Learning About Crime Prevention
from Aborted Crimes: Intrapersonal
Comparisons of Committed and Aborted
Robbery
Introduction
In this chapter we demonstrate that a lot can be learned about crime and crime pre-
vention by studying aborted crimes: crimes that were not committed despite being
anticipated by the prospective offenders. Getting to know why offenders sometimes
decide to call off a crime they have anticipated is an uncommon but potentially use-
ful way to gain insights into why certain crime prevention measures may actually
work. Our discussion of the potential of offender-based research is based on a study
that included an intrapersonal comparison of committed and aborted robberies. Our
aim in this chapter is twofold. The first aim is to report our findings about aborted
robberies. The second aim is to elaborate on the strengths and weaknesses of our
research design, and thereby provide recommendations for future studies. We will
use our study to answer the following three substantive questions:
1. What distinguished robberies that were aborted from robberies that were
committed?
2. What mechanisms explain why some robberies get aborted and others do not?
3. What reasons do offenders provide for aborting robberies?
We draw on interviews with 104 incarcerated and non-incarcerated robbery
offenders, in which we collected information about aborted and committed robber-
ies both involving the same offender. In our analysis we use answers to both open
and closed questions about characteristics of the committed and aborted robberies
and the situations in which they occurred. These answers include the reasons for
aborting robbery that the offenders themselves provided during the interviews.
Although not all findings are easily applicable in a situational crime prevention
program, we believe that the method of analyzing aborted crime offers great poten-
tial for combatting crime, as it can potentially highlight situational factors that pre-
vent crimes about to be committed.
Counterfactual Strategy
Because experimental designs are seldom feasible in the study of crime, a good
alternative counterfactual strategy is important for explaining crime. An appropriate
counterfactual strategy seeks situations without crime that are similar to situations
with crime. This attempt underlies a variety of criminological studies of conditions
in which crime is decreasing or even absent, including the explanation of decreasing
crime statistics (Tonry, 2014), periods of peace in gang conflicts (Vargas, 2014),
de-escalating behavior during aggressive incidences in public drinking spaces
(Levine, Taylor and Best 2011), nonviolent methods in drug market conflicts
(Jacques, 2010), and desistance from crime over the life course (Maruna, 2001).
Common to these studies is the wish to explain crime and criminal decision making
by understanding conditions for non-criminal behavior. They obviously differ in
terms of their unit of analysis: periods with high and with low crime figures, periods
in the life course with and without criminal activities, and behavior during criminal
and non-criminal events.
Where studies of criminal behavior over the life course tend to focus on differences
in criminal behavior across various periods in the life of the same person (e.g.,
Blokland & Nieuwbeerta, 2005), studies of the effects of situational characteristics on
criminal behavior tend to compare situational characteristics involving different per-
sons; that is, they make between-person comparisons. For instance, in a study of drug
market conflicts, Jacques (2010) aimed at explaining the variable conditions of violent
and nonviolent retaliation without making intrapersonal comparisons. To identify the
situational characteristics of lethal assaults, Ganpat, van der Leun, and Nieuwbeerta
(2013) compared court case descriptions of lethal and nonlethal cases, each involving
both different offenders and different victims. Levine, Taylor, and Best (2011) focused
on explaining why conflicts in public drinking places sometimes escalated into physi-
cal aggression and sometimes de-escalated. Graham et al. (2006) observed conflicts in
bars with the aim of understanding why some conflict situations ended up with physi-
cal aggression while others did not. While the aim of these four studies was to under-
stand the situational circumstances for violent and nonviolent behavior, none of them
compared behavior of the same person in different situations. This design may con-
found personal and situational characteristics, and is therefore not the most rigorous
approach for assessing either personal or situational causes of criminal behavior.
In criminology only a handful of studies of situational characteristics used intra-
personal comparisons of criminal and non-criminal behavior. Phillips (2003)
3 Learning About Crime Prevention from Aborted Crimes… 21
In our study of robberies, we compared three different types of robberies carried out
by the same person: (1) robberies with threat, (2) robberies with physical violence,
and (3) anticipated robberies that were aborted. Respondents were asked to describe
the most recent robbery they committed for each category and to focus on robberies
that took place within a 5-year period prior to the interview. In the present discus-
sion, the first two types are joined and treated as “committed robberies” in order to
compare their situational characteristics with the third type: robberies that were
never committed. The definition of robbery was broad enough to include street rob-
beries, commercial robberies, and home robberies.
Aborted Robberies
We defined aborted robberies as robberies that the respondent had anticipated com-
mitting but decided not to carry out. Our counterfactual case was therefore defined
in relation to the decision-making process: respondents had a target on their mind,
but for whatever reason they decided not to rob the particular target. The character-
istic for an aborted robbery was that the potential victims were (and probably have
always remained) unaware that they were about to get robbed. This rather broad
definition of anticipated robberies included robberies that were planned well in
advance, but got aborted seconds before they were supposed to take place. It also
included robberies that were considered on the spot, but not carried out for some
22 M.R. Lindegaard and W. Bernasco
reason. It also included anticipated robberies that were being discussed among
friends at home, but had not yet been planned.
We interviewed 104 male respondents in the Netherlands who claimed that they
had experiences with committing a robbery. A minority (28) was not incarcerated
and was recruited via a snowball sample on the streets of Amsterdam. The other 76
were recruited in adult prisons (41) and juvenile facilities (35). Each interview
focused on all three types of robbery situations. Since the non-incarcerated respon-
dents found it difficult to concentrate as long as required to go through three types
of robbery events, we decided to leave out, if necessary, aborted robberies among
the non-incarcerated respondents. In practice that meant that we only succeeded
getting information about aborted robberies from five non-incarcerated offenders.
For the purpose of this chapter our sample is therefore 81 respondents.
All respondents who were asked to provide details about an aborted robbery were
able to do so without hesitation. In fact, remembering robberies that they had antici-
pated but decided not to perpetrate seemed easier than recalling the ones that had been
actually carried out. The amount of detail about the situation in which the robbery was
supposed to have taken place varied largely depending on where in the decision-mak-
ing process the respondent had decided not to carry out the robbery. In most cases there
had not yet been established any contact with the victim. Our definition of aborted
robberies therefore differed from “unsuccessful robberies,” where the offender did not
manage to get away with any valuables. In our definition unsuccessful robberies were
“committed robberies.” Aborted robberies were anticipated but had not yet been started.
Recruitment
The non-incarcerated respondents were recruited through a recruiter known to the third
author. The recruiter earned 20 Euros per recruited respondent. The non-incarcerated
respondents were paid 50 Euros for an interview. The incarcerated respondents were
asked for participation face to face by the first author and were paid 30 Euros per inter-
view. The response rate was 66.5 % (see Lindegaard, Bernasco, and Jacques, 2014 for
details about non-response). The only criterion for participation was explained as “hav-
ing experience with committing robberies.” Respondents were never asked to reveal
their real names and were promised confidentiality. The research design and contents
of the questionnaire and interview protocol were reviewed and approved by the ethics
committee of the Law Faculty of Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam.
For the purpose of this chapter we describe 155 committed robberies and 81
aborted robberies. Robberies referred to were committed on the street, in shops and
other types of retail businesses, and in private homes. Respondents were asked to
3 Learning About Crime Prevention from Aborted Crimes… 23
focus on the most recent robberies within the three categories of robberies (threat
only; physical violence; aborted) and only on robberies committed within 5 years
prior to the interview or to their incarceration. Interviews lasted between 20 min
and 3 h depending on the number of robberies described by respondents, their
willingness to discuss the robberies in details, and their ability to reflect on their
experiences. Interviews were recorded and transcribed verbatim. Accounts of 30
robberies were cross-checked with media coverage descriptions and consensus
was found in all cases. Official records were not consulted.
Even though the interviews were semi-structured, all interviews focused on the
same key topics following the same order of attention. Focus was given to occur-
rences during the event rather than on the motivations of the offender. Each descrip-
tion of a robbery event started out with open questions where the respondent was
asked to describe the robbery as if it was a movie unknown to the interviewer. This
open description was followed by closed questions about specific situational char-
acteristics that we specifically wanted to identify (for further reflection on content
of interviews, establishment of rapport, and personal characteristics of the respon-
dents, see Lindegaard et al., 2014).
Analysis
different categories: presence of police, moral, bystanders, physical, fear of victim, co-
offenders, and doubt. Although the description of mechanisms was tentative, the rea-
sons provided by the respondents were representative for the sample but clearly
suffered from the problem of being post-rationalizations of their decision-making pro-
cess. We decided to present both types of findings because they illustrate some of the
potential strengths and weaknesses of learning about crime by focusing on aborted
crimes.
Findings
Table 3.1 presents the result of the 18 univariate fixed effects logit models that link
characteristics of potential robbery situation to their outcome, i.e., whether they
were committed or aborted. Even in a univariate analysis, most of the characteristics
did not seem to have any systematic and significant effect on whether the robbery is
committed or aborted. The three exceptions were whether the robbery was commit-
ted in a home (more likely to be committed), whether it was planned long in advance
(more likely to be aborted), and whether the victim was known to the offender (less
likely to be committed).
Because the univariate regression models did not account for correlations
between the situational characteristics of anticipated robberies, a multivariate
model was required to tease out which were the major characteristics that deter-
mined the outcome. Using initially all 18 variables listed in Table 3.1, a multi-
variate model was determined that optimally described the situational
characteristics that affected whether an anticipated robbery was committed or
aborted. The results demonstrated that when the anticipated robbery was a home
robbery (OR = 2.83, p < 0.10) it was more likely to be committed, and when it
was planned more than 1 h in advance (0.37, p < 0.05) it was more likely to be
aborted.
Table 3.1 Relations between committing (as opposed to aborting) and characteristics of
anticipated robberies. Estimates of 18 separate univariate fixed effect logit models
Characteristics of anticipated robbery Odds ratio Robberies Persons
Location is home 2.22* 198 79
Dark during robbery 1.66 182 73
Planning longer than 1 minute 1.35 202 81
Planned longer than 1 hour 0.44** 202 81
Planning longer than 1 day 1.02 202 81
Clothes chosen 1.28 202 81
Method chosen 1.62 202 81
Target chosen 0.78 202 81
Neighborhood chosen 0.74 199 80
Street chosen 0.78 199 80
Time chosen 1.45 195 78
Tip provided 1.35 200 80
Co-offender(s) 0.81 200 80
More victims 2.00 115 48
Known victim 0.34** 111 47
Criminal victims 1.49 202 81
Any drugs (including alcohol) 1.72 200 80
Alcohol 2.12 200 80
Cannabis (hash, marihuana) 1.00 200 80
Hard drugs (ecstasy, cocaine, heroin) 4.65 202 81
Source: Bernasco et al. (2013) (drug use variables inserted here)
* = p < .10; ** = p < .05
The descriptions by our respondents suggested that they were less likely to abort
home robberies than from other kinds of robberies because (1) victims of home rob-
beries were aware of being robbed as soon as contact was established with the
offender, whereas with other kinds of robberies they could still withdraw after con-
tact was established with the victim; and (2) they expected home robberies to be
more messy than other types of robberies, meaning that “unexpected” occur-
rences—things that did not occur according to the plan—were a part of the package
when going for a home robbery, whereas unexpected events in street robberies and
commercial robberies were seen as a reason to abort.
Respondent 86 described a situation where he carried out a home robbery despite
a whole range of unexpected events (victim came downstairs, he was naked, he
refused to tell where the money was). Instead of considering backing off and giving
up due to these events, he described using extensive physical aggression:
Respondent: yes, yes, and we were inside, everyone was silent, everyone was scared, lots of
adrenaline, mainly for me, and they went searching. By the garden door they had like a
curtain with beads or something and that made a noise. So that man came downstairs. He
was all naked. I know it sounds weird but it really happened miss.
26 M.R. Lindegaard and W. Bernasco
Respondent 67 explained why he carried out a home robbery that was unexpect-
edly difficult. According to him it was impossible to back off because the victims were
already aware that they were getting robbed. Instead of leaving the place when they
were faced with obstacles they took extraordinary risks, and eventually got caught:
So we started putting on gloves. The boy, young know the one I told you about who was
specialized in opening doors, he was unable to do it. But I thought I could also do it. I had seen
it on TV. So he tried, tried, tried. It was like a corridor apartment, right. And in corridor apart-
ments, neighbors more quickly hear what’s going on. And it was already three o’clock in the
morning. We tried to open the door. It didn’t work out, you know what I mean? But I thought:
“Hey, we’re already here. We already revealed who we are, right, we’re not leaving with
empty hands”. So we tried to force it. Force it, you? And, those guys, they weren’t afraid. We
tried, and we had to make more noise, The boy said: “OK, at some point I’m going to push
and then you have to break that door.” So we kicked the door. People inside already heard
everything for a long time. We try and try and we don’t get that door open. The kitchen win-
dow was next to the door. We broke the kitchen window, and opened it, and we came inside
like that. One boy had a gun, you know, I had a crowbar in my hand, and another one, the boy
who could open doors said: “Hey, can I also have a crowbar in my hand?” So we went inside.
During street robberies respondents were more likely to deal with unexpected
obstacles by aborting from robberies and looking for new targets. Respondent 58
described how he together with co-offenders kept changing the target after they had
put their mind to doing a robbery:
Because you wait, you keep waiting, you keep waiting, and you think … by every person
you think: “OK, now?”, “No, no, no, the next one, the next one, the next one”. So you
remain in a kind of tension, you remain in the tension, yes. That sucks! The tension really
sucks! Because you fight against your own adrenaline. You also fight against your will!
Because you want to do it now. And then someone [co-offender] says: “No, no, no, wait,
wait, wait”. So you get a little angry at the other one that says: “No, why not that one?” “No,
no, no, wait a little, because there’re two other people coming.” “Yes, let’s go! Let’s go and
get those two!” “No, no, no, wait, wait, wait.” Then he says, “Yes, now, now!” I say, “Yes,
yes, now I don’t want it” And we just continue like that.
3 Learning About Crime Prevention from Aborted Crimes… 27
Changing the target would require weeks of planning. Robberies that were
planned for less than an hour were commonly referred as “going hunting,” like
described by respondent 58 above. “Going hunting” meant wanting to do a robbery
without having identified the target yet. While being in a state of looking for oppor-
tunities, they were flexible about their targets and therefore less likely to abort from
a robbery they anticipated. Long periods of anticipation, as for robberies planned
more than an hour before the event, also seemed to create levels of doubt that were
more difficult to overcome than robberies that were decided upon on the spot.
Respondent 57 described how he was in doubt about a robbery he had planned for
weeks. He would normally use drugs to suppress his doubt. In this particular case
he had not used drugs and was looking for excuses to avoid committing the
robbery:
At least I know we were sitting somewhere. With the three of us. I think it was the same two
guys. And we were waiting. And eventually … Yeah, I also didn’t feel it like at all. I had
also not used drugs, and I wanted to leave. And then I eventually… I was also the driver of
the car, so they depended on me, and then I think I called my sister. Then I said, you need
to send me this SMS, then I changed the name to my mother’s name, just like ‘mom’ in my
phone. And then I made her send me a SMS: “You have to get home now. Something bad
happened. I want you to come now.” Then I used that phone to say: “Look, a SMS from my
mother,” I said, “I must go home, we have to leave.” And then they immediately came
along, because they agreed. They could see from the SMS like, “yes, I really have to go”.
Well, then we left [laughing].
Respondent 43 described how he was hanging out with his friends at home when
deciding to go somewhere to rob someone. The period of “hunting” was very short
for them. He claimed that they simply went to the local shopping street and grabbed
the first person they met:
Respondent: I just told those guys: “We’re robbing someone”. We were talking and I
grabbed the guy. I got his wallet, and ran away.
Interviewer: And you were just chilling out? Or what did you do, I mean, when you
came up with the idea?
Respondent: We were smoking a joint, watching TV, like that.
Interviewer: So you think it was also related to like boredom?
28 M.R. Lindegaard and W. Bernasco
When the respondents had described the situations of aborted robberies we asked
them to provide the main reason for why they had aborted the robbery. This inter-
pretation afterwards provided insights into reasons that were not asked in the closed
questions. Where our findings of the comparison of the situational characteristics of
committed and aborted robberies showed that the location of the robbery and the
length of planning mattered for the likelihood to abort, the offenders provided a
larger amount of characteristics that according to their memory had mattered for
why they had aborted from committing an anticipated robbery. Despite our doubt
about whether these reasons were merely post-rationalizations of the event than to
the real considerations that made them decide to abort, we provide their answers
because they might be useful to include in a more systematic fashion in future
research about aborted events. We describe the reasons, divided into a limited num-
ber of categories, below: presence of police, moral concerns, bystanders, physical
circumstances, fear of victim, co-offenders, and doubt. The number of times that the
reasons were mentioned by the respondents is presented in Table 3.2.
Presence of Police
This category of reasons included perceptions that the risk of getting arrested during
the robbery was too great. Respondent 31 described how they realized that they
were being observed on cameras and therefore decided to abort the robbery:
We wanted to do it. First, we were planning to come by car. Then we would be fast, fast.
Around the corner, there was a garage. There you could stop the car. But, yeah, when we
wanted to do it, it didn’t work out because there were cameras around there. From the police
station. The police station was behind the garage. We didn’t expect that there would be so
many cameras around. And then, yeah, then we eventually decided not to do it.
Moral Concerns
This category included reasons related to moral concerns such as not wanting to rob
people in the presence of children or not wanting to rob older people or women.
Respondent 33 explained how he had aborted a robbery when he realized that the
victims would be female:
Respondent: I don’t want that, I didn’t want that, no. You know, everything that has to do
with women, even if it’s a whore, it doesn’t matter. It’s a person, you know, it’s a woman.
Women you need to… I don’t want to hurt them, man. Women are a bit sacred to me.
Interviewer: What was the main reason that you didn’t want to do the robbery? That was
…
Respondent: Women, man.
Interviewer: Had to do it with the profession?
Respondent: Yes, also. OK, you know, we do … Some prostitutes who have to work,
you know, they get forced, and then you just steal their money. You make it a lot harder for
them. No man! I just refused to do that!
Bystanders
This category included reasons like there were too many bystanders or the bystand-
ers were too dangerous. Respondent 42 explained how there were too many custom-
ers in the store they wanted to rob. According to him, the risk that one of them
would play what was referred to as “hero” was too high:
Respondent: There were a lot of people and I thought like: No man, today is a busy day. I
don’t go.
Interviewer: Many customers?
Respondent: Yes, and I don’t want customers to be there when I enter. Maybe someone
will try to play the hero or something like that. Then I have to do something. And I’m not
planning to get caught for murder, or for attempted murder, no man. I only come for the
money. Not to hurt someone, you know what I mean?
Physical
Reasons included in this category were circumstances that made it practically impos-
sible to commit the robbery. For instance, that the victim was not present at the chosen
time of the event or did not have the goods intended as prey. Practicalities such as not
having the car necessary for the robbery, or as in the case of respondent 75 not having
the computer that enabled them to turn off the alarm, were included in this category:
Respondent: we wanted to rob a bank, everything was arranged, all the stuff was in place,
car, masks, guns, the grinder for the lockers, everything, but some things were not there.
30 M.R. Lindegaard and W. Bernasco
The code of the … like one of those devices that you can use to switch off the alarm, like a
bypass kind of machine. And that wasn’t there. But we anyway went there and then it was
supposed to come and then we would do it the next day. Waiting, waiting, waiting, waiting
and then we didn’t do it.
Interviewer: And then what?
Respondent: Then we didn’t do it, because it was too late, and the money was already
there … At that specific moment there would be enough.
Interviewer: So the money was gone?
Respondent: Yes
Interviewer: Ok. And why was that machine, that bypass machine not there?
Respondent: It had to get picked up in Germany and the one who was supposed to do it
got arrested. We heard that later. They were doing a large investigation in Germany on those
people. And they had … that’s why we didn’t get it.
Fear of Victims
In this category reasons related to being afraid of the victim were included. For
example, doubt about their ability to convince the victim to cooperate was given as
reason to abort. Respondent 37 described it in the following way:
Yes, let’s say, yeah, you don’t know what kind of, you don’t know what kind of man it is.
Imagine it’s suddenly a kick boxer, or something like that. That you suddenly get beaten up
there.
Co-offenders
In this category reasons related to the behavior of the co-offenders were included.
Typically the respondent described not being certain that the co-offender would do what
they had agreed on. Respondent 33 explained that he realized that his co-offenders were
too afraid to carry out the robbery and that made him decide not to do it anyway:
We didn’t even check it out. We just left. Because the other guys, they were shitting in their
pants. They were scared, you know. They got afraid. So then I already thought: I’m not
going to do anything together with you.
Doubt
This category included less specific reasons like not daring to do it anyway, not feel-
ing like doing it, and the feeling that it took too long. Respondent 83 explained how
he was looking for a suitable target but kept focusing on possible obstacles because
he actually did not dare to do it:
Then you go hunting on the street, to see if you can find a person who is easy to rip off, who
is easy to get, right. But, yeah, then you actually don’t have the guts to do it anyway. […]
Then you sit and watch. Then you think … actually I don’t dare anyway.
3 Learning About Crime Prevention from Aborted Crimes… 31
Discussion
This chapter reported on a study comparing committed and aborted robberies. Its
purpose was to illustrate what can be learned from analyzing crimes that were antic-
ipated but not carried out. Whereas our study did not have a direct crime prevention
purpose, studies of aborted crimes potentially offer insights that could be beneficial
for such purposes. By learning about why offenders abort anticipated crimes, we
might get to know what kind of prevention measures could facilitate aborting antici-
pated crimes. We attempted to answer three questions, namely the following: (1)
What distinguishes aborted from committed robberies? (2) What mechanisms
explain why some get aborted and others not? (3) What reasons do offenders pro-
vide for aborting robberies?
We based our conclusions on interviews with 104 robbery offenders who reported
on a total of 256 robbery situations, including 81 aborted robberies. Aborted robber-
ies were operationalized as robberies that the respondent had anticipated commit-
ting but decided not to carry out: the respondent had a target on his mind but decided
not to rob that particular target, leaving the potential victim unaware of the aborted
robbery.
In the statistical analysis of situational characteristics of aborted crimes we car-
ried out an intrapersonal comparison of committed and aborted robberies involving
the same offender. Where few previous studies of situational characteristics of crime
were based on intrapersonal comparisons, our study included such comparisons.
The effects we found in terms of committed and aborted robberies were therefore
unrelated to relatively stable personal characteristics, such as amount of robbery
experience. One likely hypothesis about the way personal characteristics potentially
could influence our findings is that offenders were more likely to abort from robber-
ies in the beginning of their career due to lack of experiences, whereas they later
were more likely to commit anticipated robberies because they became more pro-
fessional. Since we know that the time span between the committed and aborted
robberies reported in our study was short (respondents were asked to describe the
most recent robbery for each category), it is unlikely that the personal characteris-
tics of the respondent changed significantly between the committed and aborted
robbery described.
In relation to the first question about situational characteristics of aborted crimes
we found that two characteristics were significant for aborted crimes: (1) home rob-
beries got aborted less often than street and commercial robberies; and (2) robberies
planned for more than an hour were more likely to get aborted than robberies that
were planned for shorter periods of time.
In relation to the second question about mechanisms that could explain the deci-
sion to abort the crime, we proposed that our respondents were less likely to abort
from home robberies than other kinds of robberies for two reasons. First, victims of
home robberies were aware of being robbed as soon as contact was established with
the offender, and that made it difficult to withdraw. Second, offenders expected
home robberies to include “unexpected” occurrences—things that did not occur
32 M.R. Lindegaard and W. Bernasco
according to the plan. Unexpected events were seen as part of the package when
going for a home robbery whereas with street and commercial robberies they were
not seen as part of a script and therefore a reason to abort. Similar mechanisms
seemed to be at stake with regard to the finding that long planned robberies were
more likely to get aborted than shortly planned robberies: long planning was
described as making the offender unable to deal with unexpected events. When rob-
beries were planned for more than an hour, offenders described being unable to
define alternative targets if things did not go as expected. Robberies that were
described as a part of a “hunting process” were more likely to take place because the
script for going hunting implied being flexible about the target from the start.
In relation to the third question about subjective reasons for why respondents had
aborted an anticipated robbery, we found that several characteristics, not included as
closed questions, were mentioned as important for the decision to abort: presence of
police, moral concerns, presence of bystanders, physical circumstances, fear of vic-
tim, co-offenders, and doubt. Apart from the presence of bystanders, all these rea-
sons were new to us. In our statistical comparison of aborted and committed
robberies the presence of bystanders did not have a significant effect. When asking
our respondents if any bystanders were present while focusing on specific robberies,
they generally claimed to be so focused on getting the job done that they were
unaware of whether anyone was present and possibly watching them. When being
asked to reflect on the most important reason for the decision to abort bystanders
were anyway mentioned by some of the respondents. Despite the fact that our sam-
ple for aborted robberies was limited (we analyzed 81 aborted robberies), analysis
of the presence and behaviors of bystanders as potential prevention measures seems
worthwhile to investigate in future research. Even though the subjective reasons
provided by respondents potentially suffered from the problem of being post-
rationalizations more than factors that influenced the actual decision-making pro-
cess, the reasons might be relevant to include in future analysis of prevention
measures.
The three types of insights offered in this chapter differ in terms of epistemologi-
cal value. The statistical analysis of situational characteristics, significant for the
decision to abort, is strong because of the intrapersonal comparison: we know that
the tendencies to commit home robberies more often than street and commercial
robberies and to abort from long planned robberies compared with shortly planned
robberies are not the effect of personal preferences but of situational characteristics.
The weak aspect of this type of analysis was the fact that we included a very limited
amount of situational characteristics, leaving out factors that we were unaware of
but nevertheless might be the most relevant for the decision-making process of
offenders.
While our analysis of the mechanisms that might explain why offenders abort
from anticipated robberies was limited in scope, an analysis of open descriptions by
the offenders potentially helped explain findings of the statistical analysis while
being inductively driven: it took the experiences of the respondents as a starting
point for the focus of the analysis without uncritically reproducing their own expla-
nations as significant reason for their behavior.
3 Learning About Crime Prevention from Aborted Crimes… 33
The analysis of the subjective reasons provided by the respondents clearly suffered
from the last mentioned epistemological problem: what respondents claimed to be the
most significant reason was reproduced in the analysis. The strength of this kind of
data was that it was clearly inductively driven and thereby potentially interesting for
the development of hypotheses. The weakness was that it was highly questionable
whether the remembered reasons really guided the actual behavior in the situation
itself. The open coding of the descriptions of the decision-making process of the
aborted and committed robberies aimed at explaining the mechanisms does not suffer
from similar problems of interpretation. Apart from the obvious time-consuming
nature of such analysis, a possible issue lay in the interpretation of the person coding
the data; such interpretation problems are, however, possible to check, control, and
eventually minimize by using multiple coders (Miller, 2014).
The fact that we defined “robberies” and “aborted robberies” relatively broadly,
including street, home, and commercial robberies, and defined “anticipated rob-
bery” as everything from “discussing targets with friends at home” to “standing in
front of the shop door of a robbery planned in detail” made the amount of possible
significant differences so endless that little came out as significant in the analysis.
Recommendations for future research aiming at comparing “events” with “non-
events” therefore include defining both the event and the non-event more narrowly.
Reasons for aborting home robberies might be so different from aborting street rob-
beries that including them in the same analysis makes little sense. Similarly, reasons
for not committing a robbery that was discussed with friends at home are likely
quite different from the reasons not to do it when standing in full equipment in front
of the retail shop door. In other words, future attempts to compare committed and
aborted robberies should probably attempt to compare cases that are similar in many
more aspects than just being anticipated robberies.
The most important conclusion to draw based on our chapter is that it is possible
to gain relevant information about crimes that never took place by asking offenders
to describe such incidents. Getting to know more about aborted crimes from the
perspective of offenders is promising in terms of gaining better understanding about
the usefulness of crime prevention measures. We hope that other researchers will
make use of this approach for such purposes.
References
Bernasco, W., Ruiter, S., Bruinsma, G. J. N., Pauwels, L. F., & Weerman, F. M. (2013). Situational
causes of offending: A fixed-effects analysis of space-time budget data. Criminology, 51(4),
895–926.
Blokland, A. A. J., & Nieuwbeerta, P. (2005). The effects of life circumstances on longitudinal
trajectories of offending. Criminology, 43(4), 1203–1240.
Ganpat, S. M., van der Leun, J., & Nieuwbeerta, P. (2013). The influences of event characteristics
and actors behaviour on the outcome of violent events. British Journal of Criminology, 53(4),
685–704.
34 M.R. Lindegaard and W. Bernasco
Graham, K., Tremblay, P. F., Wells, S., Pernanen, K., Purcell, J., & Jelley, J. (2006). Harm, intent,
and the nature of aggressive behavior measuring naturally occurring aggression in barroom
settings. Assessment, 13(3), 280–296.
Hewitt, A., & Beauregard, E. (2013). Offending patterns of serial sex offenders: Escalation, de-
escalation, and consistency of sexually intrusive and violent behaviours. Journal of Investigative
Psychology and Offender Profiling, 11(1), 57–80.
Jacques, S. (2010). The necessary conditions for retaliation: Toward a theory of non‐violent and
violent forms in drug markets. Justice Quarterly, 27(2), 186–205.
Leclerc, B., Lussier, P., & Deslauriers-Varin, N. (2014). Offending patterns over time: An exami-
nation of specialization, escalation and de-escalation in the commission of sexual offenses. In
A. Blokland & P. Lussier (Eds.), Sex offenders: A criminal career approach. Oxford, UK:
Wiley.
Levine, M., Taylor, P. J., & Best, R. (2011). Third parties, violence, and conflict resolution: The
role of group size and collective action in the microregulation of violence. Psychological
Science, 22(3), 406–412.
Lindegaard, M. R., Bernasco, W., & Jacques, S. (2014). Consequences of expected and observed
victim resistance for offender violence during robbery events. Journal of Research in Crime
and Delinquency, 52(1), 32–61.
Lussier, P., Leclerc, B., Healey, J., & Proulx, J. (2008). Generality of deviance and predation:
Crime switching and specialization patterns in persistent sexual offenders. In M. Delisi &
P. Conis (Eds.), Violent offenders: Theory, public policy and practice (pp. 97–140). Boston,
MA: Jones and Bartlett Publishers.
Maruna, S. (2001). Making good. Washington, DC: American Psychological Association.
Miller, J. (2014). Epistemology and rigor in criminological research: An explanatory journey. In
S. Ruiter, W. Bernasco, & W. Huisman (Eds.), Eenvoud en Verscheidenheid: Liber amicorum
voor Henk Elffers (pp. 491–502). Amsterdam: NSCR and VU University.
Phillips, S. (2003). The social structure of vengeance: A test of black’s model. Criminology, 41(3),
673–708.
Tonry, M. (Ed.). (2014). Why crime rates fall and why they don’t (Crime and justice, Vol. 43).
Chicago, MI: University of Chicago Press.
Vargas, R. (2014). Criminal group embeddedness and the adverse effects of arresting a gang’s
leader: A comparative case study. Criminology, 52(2), 143–168.
Chapter 4
Learning from Offenders: Some Iatrogenic
Effect of Crime Prevention Measures
Martin Gill
This chapter begins by highlighting some limitations of using data derived from
offenders. It then moves on to introduce, briefly, some of the limits of crime preven-
tion measures, and progresses to the main part of the chapter focusing on just one
area where offenders’ insights can be important, that is, in understanding the inher-
ent weaknesses of crime prevention approaches. Given that crime prevention is
ubiquitous, offenders have to make sure that it does not work in a way that will
impede them. As this is a large topic and space is limited, I want to look at this in a
very defined area.
First, I want to look beyond traditional crime prevention measures and instead
look at the role of processes, more broadly policy and procedures which are com-
mon in a business environment (another area where crime prevention studies are
sparse), and show how these are crucial for stopping crime when done well and in
facilitating crime when done badly. Often crime prevention is built into processes
designed for other purposes, for example a process for claiming and checking
expenses may include elements designed to reduce dishonesty, by for example
requiring receipts.
Second, I want to explore the ways in which crime prevention measures may
facilitate crime. Recently crime prevention has been given a boost in that there is
strong evidence that a major contributory factor to the reduction in crime witnessed
across much of the industrialised world has been the implementation of good crime
prevention (Farrell, Tilley, Tseloni, & Mailley, 2011; van Dijk, Tseloni, & Farrell,
2012). Yet, as I hope to show, according to offenders, many crime prevention
The author would like to thank Paul Ekblom, Charlotte Howell, Sarah Webb and two anonymous
referees for advice on this chapter.
M. Gill (*)
Perpetuity Research & Consultancy International (PRCI) Ltd,
11a High Street, Tunbridge Wells, Kent TN1 1UL, UK
e-mail: m.gill@perpetuityresearch.com
There are methodological problems in researching offenders. Put simply, how can
we be sure that what offenders tell us about their criminality is the truth? After all
why would they want to help inform crime prevention efforts not least if they plan
to offend again? Indeed, looking at things from this angle there would appear to be
a reason to lie to make it more difficult for preventers in the future and easier for
themselves rather than the other way around. Moreover, many offenders are by
(legal) definition dishonest, certainly of instrumental crimes, and that further fuels
concerns that they may not tell the truth. In fact much has been written about the
difficulties inherent in the process of collecting, interpreting and using what offend-
ers have to say (for an excellent set of discussions, see Bernasco, 2010).
Moreover, we don’t know whether there are some offences where offenders’
accounts could be deemed more reliable. On the face of it, reflections on circum-
stances where some degree of rationality is evident, that is where to some extent
offenders weigh up the pros and cons of whether to commit an offence and different
ways of conducting it, have more to offer crime preventers. After all if they weigh up
the pros and cons they may perhaps be stopped or deflected in some way. But perhaps
those who are remorseful; who are aiming to desist from committing offences again;
and who see merit in others learning from their experience would be good targets for
interviews if they can be identified? This again warrants more research.
While the limitations of deriving data from offenders need to be acknowledged,
there are some examples of offenders’ insights being used to inform and guide prac-
tice (see Decker, 2005; Gill, 2005; Jacques & Reynald, 2012, Levi, 1998; and see
Gill, 2011a, 2011b). Moreover, there are many studies of how offenders behave that
provide a foundation for assessing what has or can work although much of the
research is on a fairly narrow range of offences and especially burglary (Cromwell &
Olson, 2004; Hearnden & Magill, 2004; Nee & Meenaghan, 2006; Wright & Decker,
1994), robbery (Gill, 2000; Matthews, 2002; Wright & Decker, 1997) and shop theft
4 Learning from Offenders: Some Iatrogenic Effect of Crime Prevention Measures 37
(Gill, Bilby, & Turbin, 1999; Hayes, 2006; Tilley, 2010). Similarly research has been
published on offenders’ perspectives of crime prevention measures although this is
limited to a fairly narrow range of measures and in particular CCTV (for a recent
review see Taylor & Gill, 2014) and intruder alarms (see Bennett & Wright, 1984).
The key premise of situational crime prevention1 is to make crime less likely and
this includes making the target less attractive or more robust against crime attempts
(see Cornish & Clarke, 2005). In effect providing the guidance for making a target less
attractive for offenders or helping to make the guardian more capable as routine activ-
ity theory would have it (Cohen & Felson, 1979). The problem for crime prevention is
that often the target is attractive to offenders even though attempts have been made to
harden it. Offenders’ accounts provide an opportunity to learn more about what are
effectively crime prevention failures, be that of concept (the wrong measure was intro-
duced) or implementation (the measure did not work properly) (Tilley, 2009).
Offenders can tell us precisely how they were able to overcome different mitiga-
tion measures, and specifically how some strategies designed to prevent offending
actually worked in their favour, that is, measures designed to be crime preventers
that actually become crime facilitators, what is in practice the iatrogenic effect. This
is an under-researched area.
I would like to begin with just a few short vignettes about lessons I have learnt from
research work with offenders which help illustrate the iatrogenic effect of crime
prevention measures, at least from the perspective of the offender.
On one occasion I was with a shop thief as he recreated his offences and high-
lighted some of the strengths and weaknesses of different crime prevention mea-
sures in stores (see Gill, 2007). The store manager had advised me that the addition
of a ‘very tall big fat man’ as a security guard at the back exit was a significant
deterrent since he would ‘scare’ many thieves away. The thief I was with that day
found many easy opportunities in store. As he approached the exit he saw the
guard and reacted immediately, ‘what about that, what a bit of luck, a big fat git
who I can outrun’. As he later explained, he was not looking for a fight or for that
matter any form of confrontation and that he believed that the guard could not run
very fast made it easier to escape quickly and that was his priority. In short, the
iatrogenic effect was caused by the misperception that a big guard posed a deter-
rent effect; in this case it didn’t and that the offender viewed the guard as an
advantage was an unintended consequence (albeit that many other offenders may
well have been deterred).
On another occasion I interviewed 13 thieves about their attitudes to goods that
had a label attached stating ‘only sold in (store name)’. The crime prevention theory
1
The techniques can be found here: http://www.popcenter.org/search/?cx=0168173356798859758
49%3Agiidughzfro&q=25+Technique
38 M. Gill
for the tag was that it would make goods less attractive to thieves because they would
have to spoil the packaging to remove the label; anyone seeing the label/tag would be
more likely to recognise that the goods were stolen and that would render them
harder to sell; and if the police found them in the possession of thieves they would
more likely be under suspicion (and the tags also enable the police to return the
goods because the owners would be easily identified). In fact none of the thieves said
that the label/tag would put them off, either because they stole for self-use or because
they believed that their buyers would not be concerned they were stolen. But three
said that the label would be an advantage. Their argument was that buyers knew that
the goods they sold were stolen, not least because they were cheap, that was not an
issue, but they did worry that they may be counterfeit. The label was good evidence
that the goods were not fake (they were originally sold in a high street store) and that
made them easier to sell (and sometimes for more money). In this case iatrogenesis
was caused by the unexamined consequences of the design of a security measure.
In fact all crime prevention measures have the potential for an iatrogenic effect. A
high fence can make it more difficult for intruders to gain access, but if they do get
past it they can be hidden from view while they execute the next stage of their offence;
CCTV in organisational settings can serve security purposes but cameras can also lull
staff and others into a false sense of safety, and they stop looking for suspicious activ-
ity assuming that those who watch cameras will manage it (Beck and Willis, 1995;
Taylor & Gill, 2014); a sign stating that money on the premises is kept in a safe is an
advertisement that it is not easily accessible but it does indicate that there is money on
the premises; if an offender knows how to access the contents of a safe this is good
information (Gill, 2000). What is key in each example is to understand the balance
between the success of the measure, say in reducing crime or the fear of it against its
iatrogenic effects. There are many more examples. One good way of learning how
offenders see things differently to non-offenders (on this issue see the discussion on
‘affordance’ by Pease, 2006) is by collecting insights from offenders themselves.
In this chapter I would like discuss ways in which insights from offenders can
help understand the iatrogenic effects of processes (and in so doing draw parallels
with what Cornish & Clarke (2005) calls ‘rule setting’).
Ben2 had a gambling habit which was out of control, and it came to a point where,
as he said, ‘I owed a lot and nothing was enough’. He worked in hospitality, and
there were at least two characteristics of his job that facilitated crime; he had a rea-
sonably autonomous role and he had access to cash, indeed he was responsible for
banking the money collected at the end of a shift. He would be expected to count it
and within a few days pay it into a bank. As he reflected:
2
Ben, Adam and Carl (all pseudonyms) were interviewed in prison on 15 January 2014, and Cyril
on the 21 September 2012.
4 Learning from Offenders: Some Iatrogenic Effect of Crime Prevention Measures 39
I thought, look I can borrow this for a few days and try my luck and the first time it worked.
I borrowed a thousand and I doubled it (via gambling) and I was able to pay the money in
and I still had some to myself … I saw it as borrowing the cash for now and intending to
pay it into the bank later but it got out of control … I did take the money but I was planning
to pay it back.
Whether this view was genuine or self-deception is unclear, but what was evi-
dent was that he had both the opportunity of access to money and a genuine belief
that he was unlikely to get caught at least in the short run. He learnt from
experience:
The first time I took the money I did not pay it back in until 3 weeks later and they didn’t
check, and then I realised that actually they don’t check immediately. You can always say
you forgot, on an occasional basis you can.
letters, and I told (the mail delivery company) there were only 1 million and I only paid for
1 million. So as long as the (the mail delivery company) did not check I was ok.
For the mail delivery company the process of counting the number of mail items
was woefully inadequate. On only one occasion did they confront him with an
‘error’ and he immediately apologised and passed it off as a mistake. The iatrogenic
effects of this process facilitated Adam’s fraud, as he said, ‘they lost millions of
pounds for work they had not processed properly’. In the next example the victim
was complicit in the offence.
Carl was an independent financial advisor and mortgage broker, in his late 40s,
at the time of the interview. He too had not been to prison before (he had one previ-
ous conviction as a teenager) but was convicted of 15 counts of conspiracy to
defraud for which he was sentenced to 3 years and 4 months. Put simply Carl
obtained mortgages for people by fabricating supporting evidence; this might
include inflating people’s incomes and forging references:
I would say it would be naïve that I was not aware of breaking the law but it was incestuous
and it was common practice with bankers as they are happy to lend if they have a paper trail,
it made the whole process feel normal. So I knew I was bending the rules and felt justified
because everyone else was doing it. To me it was just business, just a way of earning a living
and that is what I did.
He claimed many offences dated back to days when such practices were more
commonplace:
My bosses showed me how to do it. I worked for a company that was owned by a bank and
my bosses showed me how to do false references … Say you have a client you have helped
and instead of charging them a fee I would say will you do a reference? And then the bank
wrote to them and they provided a reference. In (the) old days this was the way it worked
and a lot of the times I would do this.
Carl claimed that the victims were in fact what Ekblom (2011) would call ‘crime
promoters’ in that they increase the chances of an offence taking place:
I did take advantage of the lender but this did not concern me, because business develop-
ment managers from each bank or building society would come and say we have a load of
money and they would say do a.b.c and this would be about them circumventing their sys-
tems, with our help, to meet their targets. So when convenient they turned the tap on to
make things easy for you, and then the tap went off in harder times. They were as complicit
as the mortgage brokers they did business with. I never once felt guilty about them. And the
reason is they were more than complicit they were aiding and abetting and actively promot-
ing practices. As long as they had the hurdles jumped they did not care, they did not check
the validity of what was said they just needed me to say I had done what was necessary.
If the interviewee is right then at least some employees in some financial institu-
tions it seems flouted the rules governing how mortgages should be granted and
proactively engaged in illegality. The weak oversight and/or the poor crafting of the
rules were responsible in part at least for an iatrogenic effect that resulted in a crime
taking place. It is perfectly possible of course that the financial institutions weighed
up the risks and decided that there was a greater benefit in more profits in facilitating
these offences (especially if those who obtained mortgages this way were good pay-
ers). A parallel here would be retailers who display their goods openly to promote
4 Learning from Offenders: Some Iatrogenic Effect of Crime Prevention Measures 41
sales and in so doing make them attractive to thieves; they seemingly calculate that
there are benefits in losing some goods to theft by the increased sales that result
from open display (for discussion of retail security see Bamfield, 2012; Beck, 2009).
More of this later.
The final interviewee was Cyril who was in his mid 60s when he was interviewed
and was serving his first prison sentence, 7½ years for multiple (‘hundreds’ of)
charges of fraud and money laundering to which he pleaded guilty. Cyril was a self-
employed accountant and claimed to have never committed any prior offences. He
believes that he had a midlife crisis fuelled in part by a difficult marriage, but his
offences were facilitated by a sudden and surprising opportunity.
As an accountant Cyril along with a local solicitor he knew well was given a
power of attorney over the estate of a wealthy individual. Together they man-
aged her finances, so when bills arrived Cyril and the solicitor would settle them
ensuring that they jointly approved all payments from the account. Then one
day an invoice arrived from the nursing home which needed to be settled straight
away. The solicitor was away and so Cyril alone authorised payment and it was
paid. Suddenly he realised that he could make withdrawals without a
cosignatory:
I was in my fifties, and had never committed offences. Being made power of attorney was
not a big deal, I had done it before. I was working on this case for 2 years and there was no
problem. When the … solicitor was on holiday and I did it on my own, and no one checked,
it just made me think. It was all quite sudden. I would take £30,000 a month after that and
no one checked.
And the lack of oversight by financial institutions helped. As Cyril noted the
‘lack of checks or notice of anything suspicious by financial institutions was a help’,
and that ‘I could have suffered from an audit at any of the financial institutions’,
both accounts he drew money from as well as those he paid the money into.
He was well known at the financial institution where the account was held
and this is probably why his actions did not raise suspicions there. The solicitor
did not check financial updates he was provided with most probably because he
knew Cyril and trusted him; there were missed opportunities to identify Cyril’s
scam. He exploited several factors: slack procedures at that time in the financial
sector in withdrawing funds; his reputation as a local accountant who could be
trusted; skills to make the accounts look ‘normal’ despite his illegal withdraw-
als; and slack procedure on the part of the solicitor in offering effective due
diligence.
Cyril noted that ‘it was so easy, it was simple’. Although he knew he would be
caught when ‘the old lady died’, at that point he went on the run with £300,000 in
his account and lived the ‘high life’ until he was caught just as his money was run-
ning out.
42 M. Gill
Offenders are well placed to tell us about the strengths and weaknesses of different
crime prevention approaches; it is perhaps surprising that we have not sought their
views more often on this issue not least to better understand how different types of
measures can be improved. In this chapter I have sought to show how offenders’
insights can help explain how a type of measure, business processes, can, when
poorly conceived and/or managed, work in offenders’ interests. I have borrowed the
medical term ‘iatrogenic effect’ which refers to the unintentional harmful effects of
medical intervention and applied it to crime prevention measures to highlight ways
in which crime prevention interventions designed for bona fide reasons unintention-
ally fail with harmful effects in that they work in the interests of offenders. I pro-
vided four different examples of how processes designed (at least in part) to prevent
crime actually facilitated it. The causes of the iatrogenic effect were seemingly a
combination of error, negligence and unintended side effects in the ways processes
were conceived, implemented and monitored.
Each of the examples illustrates points in more than one way, but in summary
processes were poorly conceived and therefore they were flouted even by those
who had created them (and therefore Carl was able to generate income for his
employer because breaching procedures often worked in the employer’s inter-
ests); they were poorly implemented so that they did not guide behaviour in the
way that was intended (so Adam was able to include more items than he was
paying for and was illegally defrauding his client of income); they were poorly
monitored (and so Ben was able to avoid paying in cash and as a consequence
illegally deprived his employer of income it was due); and because of poor pro-
fessional practice (and this enabled Cyril to capitalize on the solicitor failing to
follow proper procedure and benefited from lax practices in the financial institu-
tions he dealt with).
The study of crime prevention has started to draw upon knowledge within a
much broader range of disciplines influenced by the emergence of ‘crime science’
(Ross, 2013 and see LeClerc & Wortley, 2013). Yet in some areas, and crime in
organisations is a case in point, there has been insufficient attention paid to the role
of process in preventing crime. Indeed, there is growing awareness that good crime
prevention in business (at least) is in part about building security into processes
designed for other purposes; that way you can engage users and ensure that crime
prevention is doable rather than getting in the way of doing business (when done
well). The other way around is important too. For example, a study of security in the
supply chain (Peleg-Gillai, Bhat, & Sept, 2006) found many broader additional ben-
efits to good security including the following:
• Improved product safety
• Improved inventory management
• Improved supply chain visibility
4 Learning from Offenders: Some Iatrogenic Effect of Crime Prevention Measures 43
(see also Ekblom, 2011; Pawson & Tilley, 1997). It is a stark lesson to realise that
measures designed to prevent crime may actually facilitate it. Little is known about
the extent to which this happens or the ways in which it does, or indeed what the
range of harmful effects are although offenders’ insights afford the opportunity to
learn more. While it has long been known that crime prevention measures fail, a
better understanding of the precise reasons why this is the case are crucial, and
offenders have the potential to generate important insights.
References
Levi, M. (1998). The craft of the long-firm fraudster: Criminal skills and commercial responses. In
M. Gill (Ed.), Crime at work (Vol. 2, pp. 155–168). Leicester: Perpetuity Press.
Levi, M. (2008). The phantom capitalists: The organisation and control of long-firm fraud.
Aldershot: Ashgate.
Matthews, R. (2002). Armed robbery. Collumpton: Willan.
Nee, C., & Meenaghan, A. (2006). Expert decision making in burglars. British Journal of
Criminology, 46, 935–949.
Pawson, R., & Tilley, N. (1997). Realistic evaluation. London: Sage.
Pease, K. (2006). No through road: Closing pathways to crime. In K. Moss & M. Stephens (Eds.),
Crime reduction and the law (pp. 50–66). Abingdon: Routledge.
Peleg-Gillai, B., Bhat, G., & Sept, L. (2006). Innovators in supply chain security: Better security
drives business value. Stanford: The Manufacturing Institute, Stanford University.
Ross, N. (2013). Crime: How to solve it, and why so much of what we’re told is wrong. London:
Biteback.
Starfield, B. (2000). Is US health really the best in the world? Journal of the American Medical
Association, 284(4), 483–485.
Taylor, E., & Gill, M. (2014). CCTV: Reflections on its use, abuse and effectiveness. In M. Gill
(Ed.), The handbook of security (2nd ed., pp. 705–726). London: Palgrave.
Tilley, N. (2009). Crime prevention. Collumpton: Willan.
Tilley, N. (2010). Shoplifting. In F. Brookman, M. Maguire, H. Pierpoint, & T. Bennett (Eds.),
Handbook of crime (pp. 48–67). Uffculme, Devon: Willan.
van Dijk, J., Tseloni, A., & Farrell, G. (Eds.). (2012). Closing the doors: New perspectives on the
international crime falls. Basingstoke: Palgrave.
Wright, R., & Decker, S. H. (1994). Burglars on the Job: Streetlife and residential break-ins.
Boston: Northeastern University Press.
Wright, R., & Decker, S. H. (1997). Armed robbers in action: Stickups and street culture. Boston:
Northeastern University Press.
Part II
Crime Script Analysis
Chapter 5
Script Analysis and the SCRIPT Acronym
Benoit Leclerc
Introduction
Crime script analysis is more popular than ever in criminology. This popularity did
not occur overnight. Derek Cornish demonstrated the relevance of adapting the con-
cept of the script to the study of crime-commission processes in 1994; yet initially,
crime scripts attracted little attention from criminologists. Since 2006, however,
there has been an increased interest in crime scripts worldwide. Indeed, criminolo-
gists are now attentive to the benefits of crime scripts. This chapter briefly covers
the concept of scripts, recent research on crime scripts, benefits of offender self-
reported data for crafting crime scripts, and the strengths of crime script analysis.
The main objective of this chapter is to promote the practice of using script analysis
in criminology.
Peoples’ brains are inhabited by different forms of schemas (Augoustinos, Walker, &
Donaghue, 2006). A schema is a cognitive structure that contains assumptions and
expectations about the social world based on past behavior and experience. The main
objective of schemas is to help people navigate in the social world. For instance,
every person has accumulated knowledge about himself/herself, other people, and
what sequence of actions to follow in order to achieve desired goals. People also have
schemas to provide them with guidance on how to interact with other people.
Accordingly different forms of schemas exist (e.g., self-schemas, person schemas,
B. Leclerc (*)
School of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Griffith University,
Mt Gravatt Campus, Brisbane, QLD 4111, Australia
e-mail: b.leclerc@griffith.edu.au
relational schemas, event schemas) (Augoustinos et al., 2006; Baldwin, 1992; Fiske
& Taylor, 1991). For instance, self-schemas refer to the knowledge structure people
have of themselves, which is linked to a person’s traits and past behaviors and thus
provides this person with a sense of identity. A person schema is a knowledge struc-
ture that contains personality prototypes of other people the person knows either
personally or by reputation. This structure helps people categorize others according
to their dominant personality traits and then to interact with them according to their
own personality. Relational schemas—called interpersonal scripts—are cognitive
structures that assist people in their interrelations with others (Baldwin, 1992; 1995).
Specifically, interpersonal scripts are a stereotyped relational pattern found in a par-
ticular context—what behaviors tend to be followed by what responses—and are
used to interpret social situations and the behavior of others. Finally, an event schema,
commonly referred as a script, is a knowledge structure that organizes the sequence
of actions to adopt in a particular context. For a more detailed coverage on the origins
of scripts, the reader is invited to read Cornish’s piece published in Crime Prevention
Studies in 1994.
Schank and Abelson (1977) illustrated the concept of scripts by using the now
classic example of eating in a restaurant, that is, the sequence of actions that must
be taken by the customer of a restaurant. The customer must enter the restaurant;
wait to be seated; get the menu; order; eat; get the cheque; pay; and exit. Applied to
crime, the script concept makes the crime-commission process much easier to iden-
tify and understand. Cornish (1994) initially borrowed the script concept in order to
provide a framework to systematically investigate and identify all of the stages of
the crime-commission process of a specific crime, the decisions and actions that
must be taken at each stage, and the resources required for successful completion of
the crime. This template is highly relevant for crime prevention as it assists crimi-
nologists in identifying additional intervention points for prevention besides those
just associated with the “doing” of crimes.
In criminology, there are three innovations that should be noted in the way crime
scripts have been recently used. First, scripts have now been applied to identify the
process of crimes that may have been perceived in the past as irrational and thus
unpreventable through the means of situational crime prevention. This body of
work reinforces the notion that offenders are making decisions before, during, and
after committing their crime, even if these decisions can be made in a few seconds.
For example, interpersonal crimes such as child sexual abuse and sexual offenses
committed by stranger serial offenders have been reconstructed through scripting,
which highlighted the rational nature of these crimes and, as a result, the potential
for situational prevention (Beauregard, Proulx, Rossmo, Leclerc, & Allaire, 2007;
Leclerc, Smallbone, & Wortley, 2013; Leclerc, Wortley, & Smallbone, 2011).
Equally important, the utility of scripts for understanding “organized” crimes has
also been demonstrated by several scholars showing that scripts can capture the
crime-commission process of a criminal organization’s activities (e.g., Chiu,
Leclerc, & Townsley, 2011; Hiropoulos, Freilich, Chermak, & Newman, 2013;
Savona, 2010) and the specific role that certain actors can play within these organi-
zations (Morselli & Roy, 2008).
5 Script Analysis and the SCRIPT Acronym 51
From which source can we extract the most valuable information for crime scripts?
Bullock, Clarke, and Tilley (2010) suggested a number of potential data sources that
are useful for crime script analysis, including materials obtained from police investi-
gations (see Savona et al., 2013); offender self-reports (see Leclerc et al., 2011;
2013); victims (Smith, 2010; 2016); and court transcripts (see Chiu et al., 2011; Chiu
& Leclerc, 2016). Although each source represents a way to collect data on crime
scripts, and a combination of them may present the ideal situation for a researcher,
the most informative method is to talk to offenders themselves. The main reason for
this is that offenders are the ones performing the actions that we are seeking to ana-
lyze. Therefore, there is no better source for this information than offenders them-
selves. This taps into the rationale underlying and driving offender-based research
(Jacques & Bonobo, 2016). Only offenders can provide a detailed account of their
actions. For instance, there are stages of the crime-commission process for which
sources other than offender self-reports would not be useful such as when the
offender contemplates, plans, selects, and approaches the target. If data are missing
for these stages, it is harder to reconstruct the script. This point is vital for situational
crime prevention practice because the script builds on the offender’s perspective in
the design of prevention measures. Of course, this point can also be made for victims
(in the case of victims’ scripts) and guardians (in the case of guardians’ scripts) as
well (Leclerc, 2013a).
52 B. Leclerc
(1994) idea of using crime scripts for situational prevention. Cornish argues that
crime script tracks are the most useful scripts for situational prevention because
they are the most specific to a particular crime. Essentially, there are four levels of
generality of crime scripts, that is, the metascript, the protoscript, the script, and
script tracks. The metascript level comprises all crimes from the same classification
(e.g., sexual offending and burglary). The protoscript is the level at which different
subgroups of a specific crime are distinguished (e.g., sexual offenses against chil-
dren versus sexual offenses against adults). At the script level, the crime is subdi-
vided into categories according to a situational dimension relevant for prevention
(e.g., domestic versus public crime location). The track level provides a more
detailed study of a crime-commission process within a particular set of circum-
stances and therefore is the level at which situational crime prevention can best
operate. Indeed, a script track is the level at which the interaction between the
offender and the environment in which the crime is committed is given most consid-
eration. An example of this is the commission of sexual offenses against boys in
youth-oriented organizations as a crime-specific track (Cornish, 1998).
The strengths of script analysis are numerous. I will only discuss some of these
strengths here—others are also likely identifiable. In the tradition of problem-
oriented policing and situational prevention (e.g., Clarke, 1999; Clarke & Eck,
2005; Farrell & Tilley, 2016), I have developed an acronym to tap into the strengths
of crime script analysis. I have simply used “SCRIPT” (systematic, compatible,
resilient, insightful, practical, theoretical) as an acronym for that purpose. The
reader should note that Borion (2013) has previously looked at the qualities that
empirically generated crime scripts should possess in order to ensure that they are
useful for computer modeling approaches and crime prevention. In this chapter, I
take a different approach and look at the inherent qualities of the analysis of scripts
rather than the qualities that empirical scripts should have for practical purposes.
First, crime script analysis is systematic. It has the power to break down a com-
plex sequence of actions (e.g., the crime-commission process) into a series of steps,
which provides a structure and therefore simplifies it (Cornish, 1994). In other
words, this analysis simplifies complex behavioral processes through a systematic
approach. It is arguably impossible to study crime-commission processes taken as a
whole because they include different stages, each involving different decisions,
actions, and/or situations and even sometime different actors.
Second, crime script analysis is compatible with the perspective of any actors
involved in crime events. Script analysis is not limited to the offenders’ point of view
to prevent crime but can involve other actors in crime events as well (Leclerc, 2013a;
2013b). The victim’s perspective can be adopted to uncover the script for avoiding
victimization successfully (see Smith, 2010; 2016). A researcher can also think of
54 B. Leclerc
crime through the lens of capable guardians and identify the script for intervening
during the commission of a crime in a particular context (Leclerc & Reynald, 2015).
Police scripts can also be examined to facilitate successful and safer interventions
(Dwyer, Graesser, Hopkinson, & Lupfer, 1990). The bottom line is that script analysis
can be adopted from angles other than the offenders’ for crime prevention purposes.
Third, crime script analysis is resilient. It is resilient to time, the evolution of crime,
criminal organizations, offenders’ methods for committing crime, and the adaptation
of the crime prevention field of research in response to crime evolution, which is not
necessarily the case for a number of situational prevention techniques (see Ekblom &
Tilley, 2000). Crime scripts are and will always be applicable to the study of crime-
commission processes simply because any goal-directed sequence of human behavior
can be scripted regardless of its form or content and when it is examined.
Fourth, crime script analysis is insightful. Script analysis has the power of reveal-
ing not only the actions adopted by offenders at each step of the crime-commission
process but also the decision-making process underneath those actions and perhaps
even the motives driving behaviors (Cornish & Clarke, 2002). Scripts can also cap-
ture the behavioral habits or routines of repeat offenders when they carry out par-
ticular forms of crime as well as the range of actors involved, if any, in criminal
activities. Script analysis can be informative well beyond the actions of offenders.
Fifth, crime script analysis is practical. Consistent with the essence of situational
prevention, script analysis has the power of generating a wide range of intervention
points for situational prevention because it breaks down the crime-commission pro-
cess into a series of stages (Cornish, 1994). Given that the most valuable aspect of
script analysis is disrupting the crime-commission process, two aspects of script
analysis are important for achieving this goal. First, more intervention points means
more opportunities for disrupting the crime-commission process before completion.
Second, as script analysis may allow us to uncover at which stages offenders could
be most effectively stopped, it has the potential to allow us to direct situational
efforts to these points in particular.
Sixth, the concept of scripts is in its foundation theoretical. It is theoretically
sound and grounded. As discussed above, it is deeply rooted in cognitive science
and social psychology (Fiske & Taylor, 1991; Schank & Abelson, 1977; in criminol-
ogy, see Cornish, 1994). This theoretical foundation provides a neat and comple-
mentary framework from which to approach the study of crime, criminal decision
making, and importantly crime prevention.
In terms of weaknesses, there are important obstacles to the effective use of
crime script analysis. Perhaps the major shortcoming is related to the nature of data
available to study crime-commission processes, not the analysis of scripts
themselves. Moreto and Clarke (2013) illustrated this point well in their discussion
of the potential of crime script analysis to combat wildlife crime. Wildlife crime
involves a complex interplay of a range of actors across different countries and, as
a result, getting access to quality data in the first place is an important challenge.
Moreto and Clarke pointed out that scripts could be useful for further understanding
and preventing wildlife crime but getting access to relevant data may be simply too
difficult in this case.
5 Script Analysis and the SCRIPT Acronym 55
Another potential weakness may be the terminology used in crime script analysis
research. Cornish has used different terminologies to refer to the stages of crime-
commission processes. In 1994, Cornish borrowed the terminology used in cogni-
tive psychology in his adaptation of scripts to crime (e.g., instrumental initiation,
instrumental actualization). In recent research, Cornish and others have used differ-
ent terminology perhaps simpler or perceived as more applicable for criminologists
(e.g., initiation, continuation, completion) (Cornish & Clarke, 2008). For instance,
Savona et al. (2013) followed this approach and used a different terminology than
cognitive psychology to uncover the stages of human trafficking (e.g., recruitment,
transportation, exploitation, escape). In the end, the researcher should potentially
choose the terminology that best suits the purpose of the research. Perhaps it should
be kept in mind that the terminology used in cognitive psychology keeps us closer
to the theoretical relevance of scripts for providing insights into human decision
making in general.
To make the best of script analysis, quality data are essential, which means that there
is a need to collect data from offenders as well as from a range of other actors
involved in crime events depending on the type of scripts under study. Getting access
to self-report data can represent an important challenge in the current context where
research budgets are cut down by governments and access to incarcerated offenders
is getting more difficult than ever due to how institutions operate. This research con-
text does not encourage future and young researchers to undertake research with
offenders. However, other data sources can (and should) be used to uncover crime
scripts and young scholars should be encouraged to use these methods if necessary.
In the tradition of offender-based research, there is also the possibility of studying
active offenders (e.g., Jacobs, 1999; Jacques & Bernasco, 2013; Wright & Decker,
1994, 1997) although this may prove challenging with certain offender populations,
such as sexual and homicide offenders. Script analysis has the advantages of being
systematic, compatible, resilient, insightful, practical, and theoretically grounded. As
pointed out by Cullen (2011), more and more there is a need to study how offenders
think and how crimes are committed in order to better understand and reduce crime.
I am hopeful that young researchers will seriously take this fact into consideration
and see script analysis as a research avenue to make a significant contribution to
crime, its prevention, and criminology more broadly.
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Chapter 6
An Examination of Sexual Offenses Against
Women by Acquaintances: The Utility
of a Script Framework for Prevention
Purposes
Introduction
ways) (Atkenson, Calhoun, & Morris, 1989; Ullman & Knight, 1991, 1992), to
more sophisticated classifications based on patterns detected, such as home intruder,
tracker and lurker (Beauregard, Rebocho, & Rossmo, 2010). Other variables exam-
ined in relation to offending strategies include the number of offenders involved,
breaking and entering and the use of violence or tools (including weapons, vehicles
or disguises), which could be seen as ‘facilitating hardware’ for the crime (Gibson,
Linden, & Johnson, 1980). Weapons are used as an instrument to leave no choice to
victims but to perform sexual behaviours on offenders regardless of the offender-
victim relationship (Leclerc & Cale, 2015). Offender violence showed a curvilinear
relationship with the degree of closeness of the victim-offender relationship (Ullman
& Siegel, 1993), where acquaintance offenses are generally less violent than
stranger ones; however, this excludes offenses by intimates and family members
(Koss et al., 1988). Offenders previously known to the victim tend to be more likely
to seek interaction with the victim after the attack (Bownes, O’Gorman, & Sayers,
1991). Studies that questioned offenders on their motivations found revenge as the
main motivation (Hale, 1997; Mann & Hollin, 2007). Other motives include power,
anger, seeking sexual gratification to enhance positive mood and sexual pleasure.
Theoretical Background
The rational choice approach posits that potential offenders are people who make
deliberate and purposive decisions to commit crime, with the ultimate aim to benefit
themselves. This approach embodies the shift of focus from the offender to the
crime event (Cornish & Clarke, 2008). Instead of viewing crime as a stable trait or
predisposition of the individual (Waldo & Dinitz, 1967), the offender in this
approach is perceived as a person in a state of readiness for crime and acts on crimi-
nal opportunity (Clarke & Cornish, 1985). It is the offender’s decisions that are seen
to drive criminal behavior. These decisions are considered in an environment of
both opportunities and constraints, which can facilitate or prohibit potential crimes.
Although this process may not always involve conscious and explicit decision-
making, it contains some degree of rationality, meaning these decisions are not ran-
dom or unpredictable and can be reconstructed (Brantingham & Brantingham,
1978; Clarke & Cornish, 1985; Cusson, 1983; Walsh, 1978; Willmer, 1970).
The rational choice perspective does not attempt to decipher the nature of the
offender, nor explain the origins of criminal behaviour. It has a more pragmatic
application: the prevention and disruption of criminal actions. The rational choice
perspective provides a conceptual framework for situational crime prevention.
Crime can be discouraged by increasing the efforts and risks necessary to commit
the crime, and by reducing the associated rewards. Focus is given to the interaction
of the offender with the immediate environment during crime-commission, and the
role of opportunity and situational factors. The more specific the crime, the better
6 An Examination of Sexual Offenses Against Women by Acquaintances… 61
potential that exists for crime prevention and analysis. With a higher level of speci-
ficity, more detailed understanding and tailored prevention can be applied. This
specificity is important for crime scripts.
Using the rational choice approach as a theoretical framework, Cornish (1994) bor-
rowed the concept of scripts from cognitive psychology to develop a systematic
framework to decipher the extent of crime-commission processes involved in crime.
Crime scripts were formed to capture the step-by-step accounts of procedures
before, during and after crime-commission, including any actors, equipment, loca-
tions, resources, decisions and activities involved. Crime scripts enhance the under-
standing of crime-commission, because the crime is perceived as a process rather
than a single event and breaks down the crime into stages that can be analysed
(Cornish, 1994). Once performed, the actions involved form a cognitive script,
which becomes a subconscious template for future behaviour—meaning crime
scripts have the ability to predict criminal behaviour. It therefore becomes a useful
tool to (1) break down and examine the crime-commission process, and (2) develop
potential situation prevention strategies at every stage of the crime.
Currently other crime scripts exist in criminological literature for sexual offenses
(Beauregard, Proulx, Rossmo, Leclerc, & Allaire, 2007; Deslauriers-Varin &
Beauregard, 2010; Leclerc, Wortley, & Smallbone, 2011). Beauregard and col-
leagues focused on either target selection or the ‘hunting process’ of offenders.
These studies examined serial sexual offenses committed by strangers. Leclerc et al.
(2011) used scripts for situational prevention purposes but with a sample of child
sexual offenders. Therefore, there is currently no script that permits the breaking
down of the entire crime-commission process of acquaintance-perpetrated sexual
offenses for prevention purposes.
Method
The analytic strategy involved a further three-step process. The first summarisation
step broke down the court data into the following categories: Actors, Background,
Relationship, Circumstances, Approach Method, Locations, Victim reaction,
Offender reaction, Sexual acts, Exit, Threats/Force, Tools/Transport, Post-Action
and Time. The events were listed in dot point form (i.e. summarised) then broken
down (i.e. location, victim reaction, threat). Secondly the data was coded and tabu-
lated, as indicated in Table 6.1. The categories were determined in part by existing
literature on sexual crimes, including drawing from offender approach methods
such as con, surprise, blitz (Atkenson et al., 1989; Lea, Hunt, & Shaw, 2011; Park,
Schlesinger, Pinizzotto, & Davis, 2008) as well as the child sex offending script
(Leclerc et al., 2011). For example, victim resistance methods have often been bro-
ken down into forceful verbal, non-forceful verbal and physical resistance catego-
ries (Beauregard, Lussier, & Proulx, 2005; Ullman & Knight, 1995). The last step
was script development. The above information gradually coalesced into a complete
script, represented by a web of different stages, actions and actors involved in time
sequence. The common patterns and points in each case were identified and com-
pared. Although not every case proceeded through every stage listed in the final
script due to the individual circumstances of each case, the final script represents the
general pattern from the 23 cases.
Results
The final script comprises of eight different stages, including offender(s) and victim
prehistory, setting, instrumental actualisation, offender approach method, continua-
tion, interaction and crime completion, post-action and exit (see Fig. 6.1). The first
few steps involve the crime-setup phase, which is followed by the crime completion
phase.
1. Offender/s and Victim Prehistory
Offender and victim prehistory is unique to acquaintance rape in that they
share both a previously established relationship and socially historical events
leading up to the crime. The most common relationship between offenders and
victims was friend or acquaintance. The second most common type of relation-
ship was partner/ex-partner.
2. Setting
Factors surrounding the setting of the crime including the circumstances of
their meeting, the location involved, the time of day and also any surrounding
third parties who may have been present initially or during the course of the
crime. The most common location involved a private indoor area, more specifically
64 Y.-N. Chiu and B. Leclerc
Fig. 6.1 Crime script for sexual offenses against women by acquaintances
66 Y.-N. Chiu and B. Leclerc
either the victim or offender’s home. By far the most common circumstances
leading up to sexual offenses by acquaintances was some form of visitation. This
visitation could occur either where the offender visited the victim, or vice versa,
or even where one visited another person living in the same house as the other
(for example, a roommate). Other studies have also shown that sexual offenses
involving known offenders are more likely to occur indoors (Jones, Wynn,
Kroeze, Dunnuck, & Rossman, 2004; Porter & Alison, 2004), with the majority
of these events occurring within the victim’s or assailant’s home (Stermac, Du
Mont, & Kalemba, 1995). Contrary to stranger sexual offenses (e.g. Beauregard
& Leclerc, 2007), only a few cases involved the use of multiple offense locations,
which involved transporting the victim to another site. The cases overwhelmingly
occurred at night, and almost half involved third parties.
3. Instrumental Actualization
The main element that was instrumental to the crime was isolation of the
victim. Even though many cases involved the presence of third parties in the
house, the victim was isolated in one part of the house before the sexual assault
took place. In some cases, the offender waited until the victim was alone (e.g. the
victim walked into another room or others left room), or actively isolated her
from nearby third parties. In other instances they were initially alone in the set-
ting itself. Another factor examined was the concept of potential ‘triggers’ such
as rejection or prior relationship break-up. It is important to note that the word
‘trigger’ may imply cause, which is not the intended meaning in this instance.
This trigger refers to the inherent history between the offender and victim, in
which may result in the offender being in a heightened emotional state such as
stress or anger at the time.
4. Offender Approach Method
Offenders most commonly approached the victim through various con meth-
ods (especially offering or asking for assistance and information, followed by
direct solicitation for sex), then surprise (in particular where the victim was
asleep) and finally blitz. The use of extreme violence and weapons was rare in
this sample. This supports findings that acquaintance sexual offenses are less
likely to involve physical force and violence than stranger offenses (Stermac
et al., 1995; Woods & Porter, 2008).
5. Continuation
The continuation of the crime may involve the use of tools, or removal of
clothing. Mostly the offenders removed the victim’s clothing themselves rather
than forcing the victim to take off their clothing. The tools mentioned in these
cases included car, weapon, condom, bindings and gag, mask and other.
6. Interaction and Crime Completion
Instead of a sequence where one step clearly preceded the other, it was
found that offender reaction, victim reaction and sexual acts formed an inter-
active relationship with each other (see Leclerc, Smallbone, & Wortley, 2013).
For instance, offender reaction was shaped in part by victim reaction, which
in turn affected the acts performed. The cyclical pattern resulted in this
6 An Examination of Sexual Offenses Against Women by Acquaintances… 67
A broad range of potential prevention strategies are identified and broken down
according to each crime script stage in Table 6.2. Suggestions that are specific to
certain offender-victim relationships are labelled. The potential situational
Table 6.2 Crime script and potential intervention points for sexual offenses against women by acquaintances
68
at a relative’s house
6
to develop resilience
5. Continuation • House security design if in victim’s home • Wear secure clothing that is difficult to remove
(e.g. panic button, speed dial for help)
(continued)
69
70
Conclusion
Appendix
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Chapter 7
Expanding the Script Analytic Approach
Using Victim Narratives: Learning About
Robberies of Taxi Drivers from the Drivers
Themselves
Martha J. Smith
Introduction
Driving a taxicab can be a difficult and dangerous job. Drivers work long hours, often in
high-stress traffic environments, and face conditions that put them at risk for being
crime victims. Some of these conditions include working alone, at night and in high-
crime areas; picking up strangers—who may be drunk or high on drugs—and taking
them to isolated or unfamiliar places; and carrying cash (see OSHA, 2010). Offenders
may harass them, seek to avoid payment, assault them, rob them, or even kill them.
Burgel, Gillen, and White (2014) looked at taxi driver victimization in a Western city in
the USA and calculated the prevalence of robbery and assault for each year worked: this
was 6 % and 14 %, respectively. In the previous 12 months, 8 % of these drivers reported
they had experienced a robbery, 12 % reported an assault, and 6 % were assaulted with a
weapon. Although relatively rarer over a driver’s career than physical assaults, robberies
and attempted robberies can have serious consequences for victims, such as injuries,
enhanced fear of crime, time off work, and loss of the stolen property.
This chapter looks at taxi driver robbery and attempted robbery victimization, using
the script analytic approach developed by Cornish (1994a, 1994b). This approach can
accommodate more than crime scripts from the offender’s point of view; it can be used
to describe daily activities of individuals (or groups of individuals) and the decisions
and actions required to carry them out. Three main types of scripts are discussed here:
(1) traditional offender crime scripts, (2) potential-victim scripts, and (3) actual-victim
scripts. The scripts set out here are built from information provided by taxi drivers
operating in Cardiff, Wales, and include drivers’ reactions to offenders’ actions during
the unfolding of these incidents. Comments from the taxi driver victims on their reac-
tions and other crime prevention measures are also examined.
Historically, the taxi industry has been subject to a wide range of regulations about
vehicle characteristics and driver qualifications and practices relating to, for
example:
• The presence of a partition (a shield or screen) separating the driver and the
passengers
• Limits on the number of passengers
• The type of pick-up condition allowed (e.g., on the street, on a rank, or by
pre-booking)
• The use of a meter and standardized fares
• The display of the driver’s identification or license
• Checks on the criminal and driving histories and the knowledge of drivers
• Driver screening of passengers prior to pick up using factors such as race, ethnic-
ity, appearance, or destination
With the exception of the partition, most of these regulations primarily protect
passenger interests.
In the past 15–20 years driver-protection devices, and regulations requiring them,
have become more common. For example, the City of Toronto (2014) requires secu-
rity cameras and emergency lighting in taxis and permits global positioning systems
(GPS). There is evidence that both partitions and cameras can be effective against at
least some types of taxi driver victimizations, such as assault (Stone & Stevens,
2000, looked at partitions) and homicide (Chaumont Menéndez et al., 2013, looked
at both cameras and partitions).
Not all driver protections, however, are related to devices or are likely to be regu-
lated; many depend on the experience and actions of the drivers themselves. Smith
(2005) identified 33 potential measures that could be used to help prevent robberies
against taxi drivers, but only about one-third would be likely to be subject to legisla-
tive oversight. Even where legislation exists, it is not always adhered to by drivers.
For example, drivers often ignore provisions that require them to pick up all pas-
sengers regardless of appearance or destination (see Gambetta & Hamill, 2005, who
studied taxi drivers in Belfast, Northern Ireland, and New York City). Gambetta and
Hamill (2005) examined the behavioral cues drivers used to assess their customers’
trustworthiness (including passenger screening) and explored how effective the
most commonly used techniques were in taxi settings.
The present analysis also looks at driver reactions to dangerous situations, but it
focuses on driver reactions to unfolding crimes as they are occurring—referred to
here as “crimes-in-action.” This type of analysis requires a dynamic tool—the script
analytic approach—which allows researchers to link offender actions to taxi driver
(potential victim) reactions in the sequence in which they occur (see Leclerc,
Smallbone, & Wortley, 2014). With this tool, crime prevention reactions by drivers,
as well as common patterns of crime commission by offenders, can be compared.
Leclerc and his colleagues (2014) used Baldwin’s (1992) theoretical concept of the
7 Expanding the Script Analytic Approach Using Victim Narratives… 79
Crime Scripts
The script analytic approach was developed by Cornish (1994a) to describe the
process of crime commission by setting out the full array of actions of the offender
from preparation to completion. Nine stages of crime commission were identified:
preparation, entry, pre-condition, instrumental pre-condition, instrumental initia-
tion, instrumental actualization, doing, post-condition, and exit. Offender scripts
look at the crime in terms of the offender’s actions: they describe each of the sequen-
tial actions performed by the offender as part of the unfolding crime. Cornish’s
script analytic approach also involves linking situational crime prevention (SCP)
measures to each stage of the crime as potential intervention points. For crime pre-
vention purposes, tracks, the lowest and most specific category in Cornish’s hierar-
chy of scripts, are particularly useful to explore due to their crime and situational
specificity. The scripts used here are examples of crime tracks because they detail
specific crimes discussed by victims.
Cornish (1994a) listed a number of ways in which crime scripts could be elicited,
one of which was from victim reports. A more direct way of gaining this informa-
tion, however, is from talking to the victims themselves. Of course, these accounts
are subject to all the usual problems related to the recall of past events, particu-
larly the failure to remember some crime details and the addition of other plausi-
ble details to fill in where knowledge or memory falls short (see discussion in
Porter & Alison, 2004, of problems related to accounts of crime incidents and
Baldwin, 1992, for research about how people “remember” expected details not
included in a presented script). It is also likely for some relatively rare crimes,
such as robbery in particular settings, that the number of victims may be limited.
Nevertheless, using victim narratives to build crime scripts has a number of
advantages: (1) victims may be more willing to talk about the crime event than
offenders, particularly if it was a unique experience for them; (2) they may
80 M.J. Smith
remember the actions in more detail than an offender who may have committed
many other similar crimes; and (3) they may be easier to find or gain access to. In
addition, victims may be able to provide a fine level of detail about the sequencing
of the interactions between themselves and the offender during the crime event.
For example, Guerette and Santana (2010) were able to gather information about
victim self-protective behaviors (VSPBs) before, during, or after one aspect of
reported rape and robbery events (i.e., victim injury) using data from the National
Crime Victimization Survey.
The scripts described in this section are not true “victim” scripts because they do
not use the actions of the victim as the main sequence of actions described. The
victim in these offender scripts is, however, both the source of the information for
building the script and an actor (and reactor) in the unfolding drama.1 “Potential-
victim” and “actual-victim” scripts are, however, described below.
1
These scripts were called “victim scripts” in an earlier version of this chapter (Smith, 2010). The
current analysis suggests that this term is more usefully applied to two different types of scripts,
potential-victim scripts and actual-victim scripts (see discussion below).
2
For the present discussion, reactive tactics are considered to be a form of SCP. However, they
differ from traditional SCP and routine precautions because reactive tactics involve an identified
offender. Further analysis is needed to clarify the relationships among these types of measures.
7 Expanding the Script Analytic Approach Using Victim Narratives… 81
carried out as a robbery is occurring. Of course, calling for assistance requires the
existence of a radio or telephone to be able to be used in reaction to the crime. While
a crime may be prevented if a potential offender knows that a potential victim has a
telephone, the mechanisms by which the prevention occurs are different in these
two situations. The telephone, in the second situation, while an SCP measure, would
not be considered a reactive tactic. For the present analysis of an unfolding and
dynamic crime-in-action, it is helpful to have terms that can distinguish the different
time frames (and mechanisms) involved with some types of preventive measures. In
addition, it is important to note that information on reactive tactics can only be
adequately gathered from the victims themselves, as it is here, since they are in the
best position to know what offender actions they faced, what they actually did to try
to avoid harm, and why they did it.
Reactive tactics are particularly useful to explore in the context of crimes against
taxi drivers in places where other, more sophisticated and expensive (and perhaps
more effective) SCP measures are not yet widely used or available, or are not
required by taxi companies or government regulations. Even when SCP measures
such as partitions, cameras, and GPS tracking are present and in use, drivers may
still carry out reactive tactics. Their effectiveness needs to be explored.
Scripts can set out other behavioral routines besides crimes because all such activi-
ties involve alternative courses of action, decisions and the actions needed to carry
them out. These are referred to here as “daily activity scripts.” In a sense, daily
activity scripts are always potential-victim scripts, as a crime may occur while
actors are going about their daily activities (see Cohen & Felson, 1979). It is only
when the daily activity scripts become a series of stages that are populated by pos-
sible crime alerts, however, that it becomes useful to consider them as potential-
victim scripts. For taxi drivers, these potential-victim scripts are usually taxi trip
scripts, and these can differ, for example, according to time of day, where the pas-
sengers are picked up, who they are, whether they are drunk or high on drugs, and
where they are going. Each point along the taxi trip carries with it possibilities for
different types of crime to occur. Identifying the risky action points along this trip
script can be useful for helping drivers learn about when they may need to have
prevention measures ready.3
Actual-victim scripts are daily activity scripts in which crimes have occurred.
They can help identify points at which crimes may occur in the future and are used
to construct potential-victim scripts. An example of an actual-victim script is set out
here (see Table 7.5).
3
For example, several types of hypothetical taxi trips, and the attendant crimes that might occur at
each stage of these trips, were discussed with the Cardiff taxi drivers interviewed for this research
during the feedback sessions held in 2002.
82 M.J. Smith
Questions to Be Addressed
Methods
Study Site
The data analyzed here were collected as part of a 2002 study of how taxi drivers in
Cardiff, Wales, protected themselves against crime. Drivers in Cardiff faced a number
of challenges in that period. The City Centre was the main recreation site, with a num-
ber of large clubs and numerous pubs and restaurants (Thomas & Bromley, 2000),
where alcohol-related violence was often a problem (Maguire, Nettleton, Rix, &
Raybould, 2003). Cardiff had two types of taxi services: (1) hackney cabs that are
licensed to pick up fares off the street (known as “black and white” cabs) and (2)
private-hire cabs that are licensed to pick up pre-booked fares. In 2002, there were
1545 licensed taxi drivers in Cardiff, with around 500 (almost one-third) driving
hackney vehicles.
4
This research was not subject to a formal institutional review board protocol. Nevertheless, the
researcher followed the general format required by US universities in that period. A copy of the
form used is available from the author upon request. Subjects were paid 20 pounds sterling per
hour.
5
Dr. Lesley Noaks suggested this venue to help protect the interviewer’s safety.
7 Expanding the Script Analytic Approach Using Victim Narratives… 83
drivers’ memories of events. All but two of the interviews were recorded and, of
these 81 interviews, five were not transcribed and three were partially
transcribed.6 In Table 7.1, the demographic and taxi-related characteristics for
the sample are set out.
A robbery was defined as the taking of property from the driver or the cab through
the threat or use of force. Attempted robberies included any incidents in which the
offender tried to take something from the driver or taxi using actual or threatened
force, but did not succeed. A “near” robbery was an incident where the driver indi-
cated that it was very likely that a robbery had been about to occur but did not or was
abandoned. The interview transcriptions, recordings, or notes were reviewed to
identify any robbery, or “near” robbery, incidents in which the driver provided
6
Notes were taken at the first interview. A low battery prevented another interview from being
recorded. Extensive notes were made when this was discovered, and crime incidents were coded.
Length of the interviews and language difficulties prevented some interviews from being tran-
scribed. All of the interviews that were not transcribed were coded for crime victimization
information.
84 M.J. Smith
enough details to build at least a partial script.7 This process resulted in the identifi-
cation of four completed robberies, eight attempted robberies, and one near miss.
Two of these incidents (one completed and one attempted robbery) involved a single
driver. Table 7.1 shows that robbery victims were very similar to the wider group of
83 drivers.
Cornish’s (1994b) nine-stage template was used for coding all the crime incidents
as “individual tracks.” After the individual tracks were coded, robbery incidents
were grouped as “crime tracks.” During this stage of the analysis, the incidents were
examined to see if the offender approaches to street robbery victims identified by
Smith (2003)—confrontations (immediate demands), blitzes (immediate violence),
cons (distractions), or snatches (quick taking of property)—could be applied to the
taxi settings described here. These categories were not found to be directly appli-
cable although some of these actions did occur in the course of the taxi robberies.
The approaches used by offenders in a taxi robbery may have been different because,
unlike street robbers, all but two of the offenders here spent time in the cabs as pas-
sengers prior to the “doing” stage of the incident. Nevertheless, these approaches
did highlight the importance of grouping individual tracks together by considering
both the sequence in which the actions needed for a robbery (a demand for, or taking
of, property and the threat or use of force) occurred and the nature of these actions.
Results
Four tracks of taxi driver robbery incidents were identified (see Tables 7.2, 7.3, 7.4,
and 7.5). Tables 7.2, 7.3, and 7.4 contain offender tracks built from victim narra-
tives. Table 7.5 is an actual-victim track also based on accounts provided by victims.
In these tables and in the text, a driver’s exact wording is indicated with quotation
marks and a code identifying the driver (e.g., Robbery Victim #4 is “[RV4]”).
Although not always specifically stated by the drivers, it appears that all but one of
the scripted incidents involved a pickup from a pub or club, or late night from the
city center.
7
One driver, who was the victim of two attempted robberies, did not provide enough information
about either incident to build a robbery script. He did provide information about the reactive tactics
he used: (1) he “pushed one offender out of the car”; (2) “the other one had gone out of the car and
come round to this side of the car, like … and I just drove away with him hanging half in and half
out of the car and I finally pushed him out as well” [RV13]. His demographic information is
included in Table 7.1.
7 Expanding the Script Analytic Approach Using Victim Narratives… 85
INSTRUMENTAL 1st incident: “The 3 actually stood out of the car and they wanted STAYED IN CAR
ACTUALIZATION to beat me up.” [RV3]
1st incident: The police came up—“attitude to me was get out Drove away.
of here and he told me to leave the scene.” [RV3]
2nd incident: Physically attacked by two. Chased driver. All GOT TO SAFETY:
passengers got out of the car. Got inside.
“Man opened gate quick. I got in there. Locked
the door.” [RV12]
DOING 2nd incident: One offender went to taxi and stole something. “I haven’t seen yet [2 months later] what they
take.” [RV12]
POST-CONDITION 1st incident: Looked in the mirror and saw what
happened. [Police let them go. No charges.]
“It’s very scary.” [RV3]
EXIT 2nd incident: They left. Did not call the police.
This track is an offender script based on accounts provided by victims
Note: A driver’s exact wording is indicated with quotation marks and a code identifying the driver (e.g., Robbery Victim #4 is “[RV4]”). Summary remarks
(shown in all capital letters) highlight the reactive tactics used
Expanding the Script Analytic Approach Using Victim Narratives…
87
88
Table 7.4 Robbery track—initially friendly offender—attack with little/no warning (N = 8; completed = 3, attempted = 5)
Scene/function Stages in the event Driver reactions or reactive tactics (taken or mentioned)
PREPARATION Incident 8: Passenger had 15 pints prior to pick up.
ENTRY Incidents 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7: Picked up 2 or 3 passengers.
Incident 8: Single man was well mannered, well dressed.
PRE-CONDITION Incidents 1, 2, 3, 5: Going to an area or estate known for One driver asked for money up front.
criminal activity.
Incident 7: Passengers gave the driver the fare.
Incident 8: Going to a distant destination. Driver did not ask for money up front.
INSTRUMENTAL Incidents 2, 5: One passenger sat in front with at least one
PRE-CONDITION in the back.
Incidents 1, 2, 3: Conversation was friendly, not hostile.
INSTRUMENTAL Incidents 1, 4: Dropped off other passenger(s).
INITIATION Incident 8: Stopped on the way and he “came back as a different Would have flashed his lights for the police, if he had seen
person” [had been pleasant initially] [RV2] them.
Incident 8: Asked to stop in isolated dead end. Needed to go Driver got out of the car as well.
in house to get money for the fare. Got out of the car.
INSTRUMENTAL Incidents 3, 8: Passenger (in the front or only) said “Give me
ACTUALIZATION your money.”
Incidents 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6: Passenger in the back used the physical
force or showed a knife.
Incidents 1, 4, 8: Attacker grabbed around the driver’s neck.
Incidents 1, 2, 5: Attacker had a knife. (In one incident the DENIED BENEFITS:
passenger took the driver’s hand before putting a knife to his Incident 5: Told attacker he knew his relative and was able
throat.) to prove it.
Driver noted he could not call because his phone was out
of range. He had no shield and no alarms.
M.J. Smith
7
incident took something from the cab once the driver had fled to an open business.
Neither driver in this track was injured.
In Table 7.4, a single robbery track was built from eight robbery incidents in
which the passengers were initially congenial and not intimidating. For seven of
these incidents, the attack or demand came while the driver was in the car. For these
seven incidents, the driver had no warning that a robbery was unfolding until (at the
initial actualization) the passenger in the back of the car (in five cases) grabbed him
around the neck (three cases), physically held him (one case), put a knife to his
throat (one case), or took his hand (one case). In two of these cases, the assailant
displayed a knife right after the initial actualization of the crime. The other two rob-
bery events involved the passenger in front demanding money initially (one case)
and the passenger, after paying the fare, claiming to have a gun (one case). The
driver reported that an offender verbally demanded money in only two of the eight
cases in this track.
Seven of the eight drivers in this track reported using reactive tactics. Only three
incidents involved completed robberies: in one, the driver handed his change bag
over to the robbers; in another, the offenders took 20 pounds from a driver’s pocket;
and in the last incident, it was not clear how the robbers got the driver’s money. In
four other incidents, the driver reported reactive tactics other than compliance. One
driver, who had been grabbed around his neck, fought back and shouted. No knife
was used in that incident and he was the only driver who reported being injured
(later having a stiff neck). A second driver who had a knife at his throat talked his
way out of the robbery by telling the offender he knew one of his relatives. In a third
noncompliance incident, in which the passenger (offender) paid the fare and then
produced a gun and asked for money, the driver was able to move his car, with the
offender holding on, and drive to the police station. In the last such incident, the
driver’s taxi had both a partition and GPS tracking, unlike any of the other drivers
in this track, but he was outside his vehicle when the passenger asked for his money,
grabbed him, and pushed him to the ground. The passenger then dropped cards
identifying him at the scene and fled. This case went to court, with the passenger
reportedly paying his fare and court costs.8 Drivers in five of the other incidents
described in this track also contacted the police, but either no one was found or they
heard no more from the police after the event.
Table 7.5 uses a different type of script to set out the two robbery events in which
drivers were attacked from outside the car by a third party while waiting for their
passenger to return. This is an actual-victim script that uses a taxi trip as the orga-
nizing daily activity to frame the other actions. At the stage when the driver was
8
This incident (Incident 8) was initially similar to the incidents in this track with its non-threaten-
ing passenger; yet, it differs from the other seven incidents in a number of respects. For example,
the demand for money and the physical attack by the passenger occurred outside of the taxi and
may have been part of a non-payment offense in which the driver exited his vehicle in pursuit of
the fare, with the passenger’s demand for money and use of force occurring either as part of that
crime or as an attempt to gain even more from the situation, perhaps as an afterthought. When an
incident deviates from other incidents in a track, it may be useful to classify it as a separate track.
It was not separated here in order to illustrate this point.
92 M.J. Smith
waiting for the passenger, an offender approached the car and a robbery event
unfolded. In one incident, the driver was approached for a light by a third party who
then produced a knife, got the money, and attempted to remove the car key. The
driver reacted by complying with the robber, which resulted in a completed robbery,
but he provided only part of his takings. In the other incident, the driver also reacted
by complying with the robber’s demands when a knife was displayed, and he too
was able to conceal the bulk of his takings for the night, by claiming he had just
started his shift. The returning passenger hit the robber, took back the money bag,
and gave it to the driver before the taxi left the scene. Because the victim got his
money back, this was classified as an attempted robbery.
Discussion
The crime tracks built from the taxi driver narratives were useful for showing the
dynamic nature of the crimes-in-action and for identifying the reactive tactics used
by drivers. They are the type of “interpersonal script” (Leclerc et al., 2014) that can
be used to evaluate the interactions of offenders and victims in taxi driver robbery
incidents. For example, in looking at the unfolding crimes, as a robbery got closer
to the “doing” stage (at either the instrumental initiation or instrumental actualiza-
tion stage), the reactive tactics focused on avoiding two potential outcomes—i.e.,
loss of money and harm to the driver, the two elements central to the definition of a
robbery. One successful strategy for protecting the driver’s money involved hiding
or concealing money and convincing the offender that there was no more money
available (concealing the target). Similarly, drivers who were able to get away from
the offenders avoided further harm (target removal), as did one who did not go to an
isolated place (thereby improving natural surveillance possibilities). In addition,
staying in a secured car when the offenders were outside (target hardening) and not
resisting the robber (reducing emotional arousal) may have protected drivers from
injury. On the other hand, trying to attract police attention (strengthening formal
surveillance) may have been a useful tactic for driver protection in one case, but the
police officer who responded was not supportive of the driver and quickly let the
intimidating passengers go. Similarly, relying on physically forceful reactive tactics
may have been useful for one of the drivers included here but is problematic.
Pushing and hitting tactics can be difficult to perform, may not prevent the robber
from gaining the money or doing further harm to the driver (particularly if a weapon
is present), and may lead to complaints about taxi-driver roughness. While the
driver who responded with force was the only driver who reported an injury, it is
unclear, even using the interactive script approach, whether his injury would have
been less severe if he had not resisted. It is also unclear whether the driver would
have responded with force if a knife had been present, an issue that was not addressed
in the interview.
It is not possible from the information gathered from these victims to know just
what prevention measures would have kept these drivers from becoming victims. It
7 Expanding the Script Analytic Approach Using Victim Narratives… 93
is possible, however, to note what the drivers said in response to these incidents and
to discuss briefly how prevention measures available now for taxis might have been
used in these robbery events. For example, drivers, who commented on vehicle
partitions (target hardening), were divided in their views on whether they would
have liked to have one in their cabs. Two said they would and one said it might have
prevented it (“it’s that big word ‘if’” [RV11]). Two other drivers did not want parti-
tions because passengers (presumably “runners”) can do damage if locked into
London cabs (which contain both partitions and automatic door locks) or because
passengers would be put off by the presence of a partition. In the UK, partitions are
found in London cabs, which are expensive to buy or rent, and cannot always be
easily fitted to other cars; one driver noted he had checked to try to get a partition
fitted but could not. Just as a partition did not protect one of the drivers who got out
of his vehicle and was then hit by his passenger (in Table 7.4), partitions might not
have protected the two drivers approached by non-passengers (in Table 7.5) or the
woman who got out of her car to try to collect her fare (in Table 7.2). These driver
accounts help explain why partitions are resisted by some drivers and when they
might not be effective. Cameras (strengthen formal surveillance) and GPS tracking
devices (extend guardianship) were not commonly available in the UK during this
period. One cab company in Cardiff had GPS tracking at that time, but it was used
primarily for dispatching drivers to jobs. Like partitions, these devices hold promise
for preventing some robberies (cameras) or assisting responders (GPS tracking), but
they are expensive and are not likely to be installed by drivers unless required.
Most of the actual changes drivers described making following these incidents
related to practices rather than equipment although one driver said that he got a cell
phone (extending guardianship) after the incident. Following the robbery or near
robbery incidents, drivers reported that they
• Became more aware or “more judgmental” [RV3]
• Operated on a different side of town or did not take fares to the part of town
where the incident occurred (“even if they look honest enough” [RV3])
• Screened potential passengers by type of person and number late at night
• Afterwards always got the money up front (at the beginning of the trip)
• Never said how long they had been out
• Stopped working late nights (at least temporarily or less often)
• Hid their money
• Carried something (that could be used for self-protection in an attack)
• Had less faith in the police
Some of these types of reactions to actual or potential victimization (e.g., pas-
senger screening practices) may make it difficult for many late-night riders to get
cabs, causing resentment against drivers, or may lead, in some cases, to sanctions
by taxi regulators.
To place these preventive measures within a broader theoretical context, it is use-
ful to classify them using the 25-techniques table developed for SCP (Cornish &
Clarke, 2003) (see Table 7.6). This table draws upon research on taxi protections
used by drivers and summarized in Smith (2005), as well as some of the techniques
Table 7.6 Possible situational crime prevention techniques to prevent robberies of taxi drivers or limit their negative effects
94
Increase the effort Increase the risks Reduce the rewards Reduce provocations Remove excuses
1. Target harden 6. Extend guardianship 11. Conceal targets 16. Reduce frustrations 21. Set rules
• Safety shields (A) • GPS system and alarm (A) • Limit change to small bills (A) and Stress • Regulate the
• Keep windows • Info. on 24-h locations (A) • Never flash cash (D) • Distribute rules at industry with
rolled up (D) • Radio, alarm code, or “open mike” (C) • “I just started.” “It’s been key supervised crime
• Stay inside • Keep dispatch informed (C) slow.” “Just ticking over.” (D) ranks (R) prevention in
cab—unless • CB radio and cell phone (D) • Hide cash or keep it in more mind (R)
escaping attack from • Use buddy system (C) (D) than one place (D)
within (D)
2. Control access to 7. Assist natural surveillance 12. Remove targets 17. Avoid disputes 22. Post
facilities • Good lighting in cab (A) • Use farecards (R) • Require knowledge instructions
• Limit # of • Ranks near 24-h stores or other • Decal re: limited money (A) tests (R) • List rules,
passengers (R) locations (R) • Allow credit or debit cards (C) • Ask for money up regulations and
• Pre-book all bar • Keep windows clear (A) (D) front (A) fares in
pickups (C) • Use street lighting well/Avoid dark • Use safe or drop off money (C) passenger area
• Screen passengers places (D) (D) of taxi (A)
(C) (D) • Travel main routes/Avoid alleys and • Look for escape opportunity (D)
• Central door locks dead ends (D)
(D)
3. Screen exits 8. Reduce anonymity 13. Identify property 18. Reduce emotional 23. Alert
• Ask “rowdies” to • Keep passenger trip book (A) • Use cab-locator system (GPS) arousal conscience
get out (D) • Caller ID (C) (A) • Exclude violent • Post-notices re:
• Have regular riders (C) (D) drivers (vet) (R) community
• Control the industry awareness and
to reduce driver “cab safe”
abuses (R) programs at
• Do not resist robber ranks and in
(C) (D) cabs (R)
M.J. Smith
7
Increase the effort Increase the risks Reduce the rewards Reduce provocations Remove excuses
4. Deflect offenders 9. Utilize place managers 14. Disrupt markets 19. Neutralize peer 24. Assist
• Limit seating • Security cameras in cab (A) pressure compliance
options (R) (D) • Supervise ranks (R) • Ask troublemakers • Use multiple
• Get destination up • Second person up front with driver in a group to get out payment
front (R) (D) (A) (D) systems (A)
5. Control tools/ 10. Strengthen formal surveillance 15. Deny benefits 20. Discourage 25. Control drugs
weapons • Attract police attention (D) • Notice culprit’s description (D) imitation and alcohol
• Don’t carry a • CCTV at ranks (R) • Resist attacker (D) • Censor details of • Increase
weapon (A) • Trouble lights on cabs (R) • Disable-vehicle capacity (C) modus operandi in passenger
• Authorized police stops (A) (D) press releases and sobriety prior to
• Decoy police (as drivers) (R) • Inside trunk release (C) (D) interviews (A) pick up (R)
• First-aid kit (A) • Keep crime • Prohibit drug or
prevention tips alcohol
during training “in consumption in
house” (A) cab (A)
Adapted from Smith (2004), which was reproduced in Tilley (2005)
Note: Sources controlling implementation of measure: D = Driver (reactive tactics used by drivers in these robbery incidents, in italics); R = Regulator/Police/
City; C = Company/Owner; and A = Any Source: Driver/Company/Owner/Regulator/Police/City (if all likely to be needed, in italics)
Expanding the Script Analytic Approach Using Victim Narratives…
95
96 M.J. Smith
discussed by Cardiff drivers in the larger 2002 study. It also classifies techniques
that the drivers reported using during, and after, the robbery (or near robbery) inci-
dents reported here (which appear in italics). After each included measure, there is
also a notation for the type of party that might be in the best position to implement
this measure—the driver (D), the vehicle owner or dispatch company (C), the taxi
regulator, police, or the local governmental authority (the Council) (R), or any of
these parties (A). These parties may be encouraged to use (or discouraged from
using) these SCP measures by the types of super controllers described by Sampson,
Eck, and Dunham (2010), including organizational, contractual, regulatory, and
market incentives. Further analysis is needed. Nevertheless, this table clearly shows
that there is a need for involvement by a variety of parties to help make the taxi
environment safe for drivers.
Conclusions
The script layout allowed easy comparisons of the unfolding sequences of these
robberies to be made across individual tracks (involving one crime event) and
crime tracks (involving two or more crime events). The results provide support
for using interpersonal scripts, which link offender actions and driver reactions,
for training new drivers. This could help drivers consider a wider variety of poten-
tial cues for discerning the unfolding of a larger number of crime scripts and
assess the effects of using various potential reactive tactics in response to these
cues. In terms of these robberies, one driver said that he was surprised by what
occurred—e.g., his view that pickups from addresses were safe was challenged—
while another referred to advice he had been given from a relative who was a
driver about how to handle a robbery. Having formal training by experienced driv-
ers who discuss unfolding crime scripts could be one way of spreading “practice”
wisdom gained the hard way. Because, among the 83 drivers interviewed, com-
plaints about the lack of support for taxi drivers among police and the local gov-
ernment regulators of taxis were common, it might also be very useful for these
groups to meet and discuss these problems using scripts based on their experi-
ences. They could explore patterns of police or regulator lack of action (as in
Table 7.3, where a police officer would not let the driver explain why he blocked
traffic and then let the intimidating passengers go without holding them), as well
as situations in which taxi drivers may be asking for responses from police and the
local authority that cannot be met.
This research was limited by the small number of robbery events available from
this group of taxi drivers, which may be a good sign for driver safety in Cardiff, but
may reduce the applicability of the findings to another setting, with a wider variety
of robberies than were described here. The research would also have benefited from
more detailed information about the robbery events themselves. Part of this paucity
of information may relate to the nature of robbery events, particularly when seen
from the perspective of the victim. Robberies of taxi drivers by their passengers may
7 Expanding the Script Analytic Approach Using Victim Narratives… 97
not involve (or perhaps require) a great deal of initiating interaction between the
offender and victim. In this respect taxi driver robberies appear to be like street rob-
beries (Smith, 2003), with victims still taken by surprise despite the general atten-
tiveness of drivers to passenger cues for inappropriate or criminal behaviors (see
Gambetta & Hamill, 2005). In addition, robberies may, in general, involve less
offender-victim interaction than other crimes. For example, assaults, such as those
that arise from a dispute or an unsuccessful con (such as a “runner” incident), or a
sexual assault in which the victim is “groomed” (e.g., Leclerc, Wortley, & Smallbone,
2011), may yield more details and cues at each stage. A comparison of robbery and
assault scripts using a single group of victims, however, would help answer whether
this lack of detail results from the robbery process itself or from untapped knowl-
edge held by victims.
Future researchers should be able to gather more information about crimes
against taxi drivers for script building if they systematically ask victims about (1)
the type of vehicle the driver was using at the time of the incident, (2) where and
when the pick-up and drop-off occurred, (3) the condition of the passengers, and (4)
interactions among passengers and between passengers and the driver. It may also
be helpful for victims to be presented with an empty script template that they can
complete with the assistance of the interviewer, as occurred with the calendars used
in Horney and Marshall (1991) to find out more about an offender’s crime commis-
sion and lifestyle. Detailed time and place information would allow researchers to
build maps and compare the information to drivers’ perceptions so that risky places
can be identified and made safer.
Acknowledgements This chapter is based on research supported by a grant from Safer Cardiff
Ltd. It represents the views of the author and does not necessarily represent the views of Safer
Cardiff Ltd., Cardiff University, Wichita State University, or any of the individual taxi drivers
interviewed. The author is grateful to Dave A’Hern, Barbara Natasegara MBE, Bernadette Bowen-
Thomson, Sally Chahrour-Jackson, Elizabeth Renton, Rosemary Howls, Paul Shone of Cardiff
County Council, Inspector Tony Rees of South Wales Police, Terry Evans and Mr. Korash of the
Hackney Cab Association, my former colleagues in the School of Social Sciences at Cardiff
University, the dedicated group of transcribers, and all of the taxi drivers.
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Part III
Crime Mapping and Spatial Analysis
Chapter 8
Crime Mapping and Spatial Analysis
Michael Townsley
M. Townsley (*)
School of Criminology and Criminal Justice and Griffith Criminology Institute,
Griffith University, Mt Gravatt Campus, Nathan, QLD 4111, Australia
e-mail: m.townsley@griffith.edu.au
Rational choice theory (Cornish & Clarke, 1986, 2008) assumes that offender
decision-making is similar in kind to decision-making in other contexts. Decision-
makers are assumed to be utility maximisers, prefering to use less energy or time to
achieve a given goal than alternatives. Cornish and Clarke assume that offenders
weigh up the costs and benefits of exploiting criminal opportunities; if the benefits
outweigh the costs, then that opportunity is likely to be exploited. For example, is
acquisitive crime the benefits usually translate into the perceived economic yield
(the items stolen during shoplifting, say) and the costs are usually partitioned into
the percieved risks of apprehension and the percieved effort required to successfully
exploit the opportunity (e.g. time taken to travel to the crime scene, equipment
required, skills or experience needed, accomplices).
This approach plays an important role in determining the most appropriate means
to disrupt or diminish criminal opportunities, but also in anticipating how offenders
will react to crime prevention. Rational choice theory provides the foundation for situ-
ational crime prevention (Clarke, 1983, 1995, 2008), an approach that considers how
a setting or environment can be changed in order to reduce the quality and quantity of
criminal opportunities. In this sense rational choice theory provides the framework for
treating a crime problem. Our analysis might reveal that a hotspot is caused by an
abundance of easy criminal opportunities, so manipulating the environment so that
those opportunities are harder to exploit is likely to have a beneficial impact on crime.
There are considerable examples of the utility of rational choice theory, and by
extension situational crime prevention (Clarke, 2012). A simple example is found in
the security hypothesis articulated by Farrell, Tilley, Tseloni, and Mailley (2011).
They demonstrate how the introduction of electronic immobilisers and central lock-
ing ushered in sustained, national reductions in vehicle crime.
Routine activity theory was proposed by Cohen and Felson (1979). This approach
says that crime is possible when a motivated offender and a suitable target come
together in some place. Crime is prevented if a target is protected by capable guard-
ian (friends of a person or owner of an object), or a place manager is regulating the
setting (door staff at a nightclub), or offenders are controlled by handlers (parents,
teachers, peers) or some combination of the above controllers.
The routine activity approach was a novel contribution to our understanding of
crime because it suggested that everyday activities contribute to how offenders and
victims came to converge. Importantly, the convergence rate of these two actors
rather than their absolute numbers that determined the amount of crime.1
1
In other words, increases in crimes could be the result of more offenders or increasing motivation
(of a fixed number of offenders) or both. Yet, routine activity theory implies that offender preva-
8 Crime Mapping and Spatial Analysis 103
The geometry of crime theory takes an explicit spatial perspective on crime pat-
terns. Briefly, it says that individuals have certain locations, nodes, they are inti-
mately familiar with and spend considerable amount of time at (e.g. school,
domicile, work). They also travel between nodes in regular predictable routes,
paths. The combination of nodes and paths for an individual is termed an awareness
space; it could be thought of as the sum total of the spatial cognition of a person.
The implication of these straightforward concepts are that they set out what the
offenders' search space who are looking for criminal opportunities. They can only
exploit opportunities they are aware of, and these are limited to their awareness
space. For most people they will commit crime in the nearby vicinity of nodes or
paths in their awareness space.
How can this be used in analysis? While an individual awareness space is of
academic interest, consider if we could gather the awareness spaces of an entire
community. Some nodes would be shared by a small number of people, those living
in the same household, but others would be shared by many people, such as public
transport hubs, schools and shopping centres. This means is that opportunities
located near nodes shared by many people will be scrutinised by more people and
good opportunities to commit crime (if present) will be exploded quickly. Criminal
opportunities featuring in few awareness spaces are unlikely to be exploited or will
be exploited at a far lower rate.
This then leads to predictions about where crime hotspots will emerge and why.
The Brantinghams talk about two types of hotspots, crime generators and crime
attractors (Brantingham & Brantingham, 1999). The key distinction between the
two is that generators are the result of an abundance of targets (shopping centres,
say) and attractors are the results of abundance of offenders who travel to locations
that they know provide good opportunities for crime (night-time entertainment pre-
cincts, open-air drug markets).
Some commentators depict environmental criminology as a response to an
excessive focus by researchers on criminality and treating offenders as fundamen-
tally different from non-offenders. While this may be true, environmental criminol-
ogy is underpinned by knowledge conceived outside criminology. Two concepts
that directly inspired the thinking of environmental criminologists are:
lence and propensity can remain fixed and crime can increase if the offender-victim convergence
rate is increased.
104 M. Townsley
• Tobler's first law: Everything is related to everything else but near things are
more related than distant things (Tobler, 1987). The composition of your house-
hold is probably more similar to your neighbour's household than a random
household on the other side of town. Commercial premises are more likely to be
located next to other commercial premises than residential dwellings. In fact
Tobler's first law applies to land use in all communities—spaces set aside for
residential, human services, commercial and light industry all tend to cluster into
distinct zones.
• least effort principle: Humans will choose the path of least resistance in order to
achieve goals (Zipf, 1965). Individuals need to move across space in order to
achieve goals such as work, education and recreation. Each of these requires a
decision about where and how to travel. The social and physical environment, in
turn, either facilitates or restricts the free movement of individuals. For instance
minorities prefer to avoid white majority communities (Rengert & Wasilchick,
1990), bridges act as connectors and rivers act as obstacles (Clare, Fernandez, &
Morgan, 2009). However, everyone has finite resources to achieve their goals, so
trips that require fewer resources than others will be preferred (all other things
being equal). Long trips will only be taken if the payoff is greater then the addi-
tional resources required to make it (Townsley & Sidebottom, 2010; Vandeviver,
Van Daele, & Vander Beken, 2014).
How do these two concepts underpin environmental criminology? If property
types and demographics cluster in space, then whatever combination of factors
make a house or person an attractive or lucrative target will similarly tend to be
spatially concentrated. Because humans move in predictable ways, much of this
spatial configuration produces a predictable convergence between offenders and tar-
gets/victims, thus leading to criminal opportunities. The consistency of these con-
vergences gives rise to spatial clustering of crimes.
To illustrate the point, consider Ratcliffe's temporal constraint concept (Ratcliffe,
2006). He describes a scenario in which an individual has discretionary time before
some fixed activity, a child attending school in his example. If the journey to school
takes 10 min and the child leaves home 20 min before school starts, she has 10 min
free time. Ratcliffe then shows that there is a “zone of roaming" the child could
cover with their free time and still observe their fixed activity. The practical applica-
tion of the concept are that houses around schools are more exposed to individuals
with discretionary time than other properties. Yet this increased exposure only
occurs at certain times—increased vigilance is only required for a fraction of the
day. The same can be said of properties around public transport, shopping precincts
and other crime generators (Brantingham & Brantingham, 1995). The broader point
is that temporal constraints are interwined as spatial contrainsts; there is only some
far one can travel with a fixed period of discretionary time.
To return to the medical analogy, how do we understand treatment? How does
locating a spatial concentration of crime help us prevent crime? Merely locating a
crime pattern or problem is insufficient for its alleviation. Some amount of analytic
work needs to take place in order for the underlying cause of the problem pattern to
8 Crime Mapping and Spatial Analysis 105
There are four attributes that enable the context for spatial approaches of crime
prevention to be effective. The first is accurate and reliable data. In the law enforce-
ment context, recorded crime data or calls for service data are the most viable source
of crime information. However, analysts need to bear in mind that the utility of
recorded or reported data varies by crime type. For instance drug offences are a very
good indicator of police activity but not a reliable indicator of drug use. Crimes such
as burglary and vehicle crimes usually trigger an insurance claim, so these are fairly
well reported. Even so, there is likely a sample bias here as well. Low-income
households or students sharing accommodation may not take out contents insurance
and so would not have a financial incentive to report burglaries. Importantly, due to
Tobler's law these types of households are likely to clustered in space further obscur-
ing diagnosis of crime problems. This point was illustrated by Ceccato and Lukyte
(2011) in the city of Vilnius (Lithuania). They showed large differences in spatial
patterns of crime between police recorded crime data and a large victimisation
survey.
Other data are important also. Because the theoretical framework focuses on the
opportunity structure of crime, analysts need to depict this, ideally comprising the
population at risk and its major correlates. For some crimes with static targets (e.g.
residential burglary, vandalism) this is fairly straightforward because many com-
munities have digitised property parcels, land use, street networks, public buildings
and other infrastructure. This backdrop can be used to depict the population-at-risk.
For crimes with mobile targets (e.g. motor vehicle theft, street robbery) the popula-
tion at risk is much more difficult to credibly establish. Spatial concentrations may
simply indicate a greater ambient target population. See Andresen and Jenion
(2010) and Andresen (2011) for a detailed treatment of determining ambient target
population.
106 M. Townsley
tactics are available, notably focused patrolling of high risk areas underpinned by
effective forecasting (Fielding & Jones, 2012; Fitterer, Nelson, & Nathoo, 2014;
Nix, 2015; Sorg, Haberman, Ratcliffe, & Groff, 2013, 2014, Sorg, Wood, Groff, &
Ratcliffe, 2014).
to the mean. Because hotspots are areas with extreme crime counts/rates
regression to the mean is a pervasive competing explanation that needs to be
included in any evaluation. Seasonal trends are another potential opportunity for
regression to the means to obscure effectiveness. Resources deployed at the sea-
sonal peak will appear to be more effective than they really are. The best remedy
or protection against regression to the mean is using comparison areas, places
that did not receive the preventative action and are unlikely to experience spill-
over from the action area. For the seasonality example, observing declines in the
action and comparison areas will highlight the subordinate contribution made by
the tactics selected.
There is a risk that police may sour community relations because hotspot polic-
ing can favour intensive responses that just suppress the problem. Merely increasing
patrolling or arrests will not only be ineffective (Telep and Weisburd 2012) but the
legitimacy of police will be diminished. Generic responses, that impact many com-
munity members, are likely to suppress symptoms rather than address causal mech-
anisms. A better approach is to use highly specific, targeted approaches underpinned
in a procedurally fair way (Tyler 1990).
What are the solutions to these problems? Evidently better training for analysts
is a must. Particularly training in inferential techniques (assessing the likelihood of
observing patterns based on some expectation of crime levels), generating and test-
ing hyptheses, as well as both process and outcome evaluations (Eck 2002; Goldstein
2003; Townsley 2013; Townsley et al. 2011).
In addition, it is not just analysts that require support, but also police leaders.
It remains a rarity in modern law enforcement agencies that selection criteria
for promotion includes crime prevention as a core competency in police execu-
tives (Ratcliffe 2008a). It is much more common that senior executives have an
investigative background and leaders are often completely unaware that crime
reduction can include situational approaches that prevent crime from occurring
in the first place, instead of relying on deterring offenders through the use of the
criminal justice system.
Spatial analysis and crime mapping have recently captured the attention of scholars
and law enforcement alike. With respect to preventing crime it represents arguably
the most active area of policing-focused criminological research today. The reasons
for this trend are that data collection and storage have become increasingly cheaper
and easier. In addition, the focus of the approach, the location of crimes, is informa-
tion the police systematically collect. Building on efforts law enforcement routinely
are engaged has lead to a rapid uptake.
But what of the future of spatial analysis and crime mapping? At the start of this
chapter I stressed that this approach is comprised of two parts: the identification of
8 Crime Mapping and Spatial Analysis 109
hotspots and deploying resources to address them. The future of this approach is
best assessed by looking at the limitations of each part.
In terms of identifying spatial concentration of crimes (diagnosis), the historical
factors outlined above suggest that analysis will continue to be considered an impor-
tant and vital role in law enforcement agencies. Thanks to increasing (and cheaper)
computing power, it is becoming easier to deploy advanced statistical techniques
that were impractical even a short time ago. The benefits of big data (Grant 2012;
Manyika et al. 2011) and data science (Stanton 2012) movements suggest that the
focus on reliable and valid data will not go away.
Turning to the prevention (treatment), here I am less hopeful. Analysts typically
do not receive the training necessary to make inferences about data. Many intelli-
gence products are at the level of describing the criminal environment rather than
interpreting it (Ratcliffe 2008a; Townsley et al. 2011). Simply describing a crime
problem is akin to a physician limiting diagnosis to merely cataloguing a patient's
symptoms. Analysis requires a process of developing an explanation of how the set
of symptoms is related to the health problem.
This training gap is not limited to analysts, however. Police leaders and decision
makers in law enforcement agencies also need exposure to effective crime preven-
tion knowledge (Ratcliffe 2008b). Policing tactics still largely comprise of conven-
tional policing approaches (random patrolling, high visibility patrolling, rapid
response, specialised units) that have an extensive body of evidence suggesting that
they are ineffective.
This training and knowledge gap is not new. Scholars have made this point many
times for many years (Clarke and Goldstein 2003; Goldstein 1979; Scott et al.
2008). It is the primary factor Goldstein identified, reflecting on 20 years of research,
limiting the wider adoption of problem-oriented policing (Goldstein 2003). What is
required is for police to rethink their understanding of the unit of analysis for police
work. Goldstein's central claim was that police organisations should move away
from viewing their work as the processing of individual crimes/arrests/calls for ser-
vice and instead aggregate common criminal matters into problems. This claim is
still relevant today. There is a need to move away from offender-centricism, to
place-orientation and problem-solving, away from prosecutions, towards opportu-
nity reduction (Weisburd et al. 2010).
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Chapter 9
Mapping Crime Prevention: What We Do
and Where We Need to Go
Martin A. Andresen
Introduction
Crime prevention is an activity that can take many forms. Crime prevention initia-
tives can be considered developmental, community-based, rehabilitation, policing,
deterrence-punishment, and through modifications of criminal opportunities often
referred to as crime prevention through environmental design—see Tilley (2005)
and other chapters in this volume for discussions of the various forms of crime pre-
vention. Mapping crime prevention is most often associated with the latter of these
types of crime prevention initiatives, but may also be part of policing and community-
based initiatives. Most of the discussions below are most closely aligned with situ-
ational crime prevention (Clarke, 1980, 1983, 1997, 2012).
Mapping for the purposes of crime prevention is instructive because it shows
where the criminal event problem is, but it is also instructive for the purposes of
evaluating various crime prevention initiatives. In this chapter, I briefly cover the
state of the art in mapping for crime prevention and then move into some consider-
ations for the future of mapping crime prevention. I hope to show that adding
sophistication to mapping crime prevention does not necessarily increase its com-
plexity, but adds a significant amount of information that is instructive for under-
standing the criminal event problem at hand, identifying the appropriate crime
prevention initiative, and performing an evaluation of crime prevention initiatives
that can inform future crime prevention activities.
Though one may find a number of different methods to map crime for prevention
purposes, the most common forms of doing so are dot maps and (kernel) density
maps (Santos, 2013). Dot maps can take two forms: (1) one dot on the map for
every (criminal) event; and (2) graduated dots such that as the number of (crimi-
nal) events at each location increases the dot gets larger. This technique can be
instructive when there are not many dots to place on the map but very quickly
becomes difficult to interpret as the number of criminal events increases. Kernel
density maps are based on dots on a map but create a surface representing the
intensity of dots at any location in the study area. There are other basic and
advanced techniques available, but are seldom used when mapping for crime pre-
vention (Santos, 2013).
The kernel density hot spot map is calculated as follows, and shown in
Fig. 9.1. Though the details of how the calculation is made can vary, the general
formation begins by placing a grid over the study area. For each cell in that grid
a value is calculated that represents the intensity of criminal event activity. From
each cell, a circle is drawn (the diameter of this circle is called the bandwidth)
and the criminal events (points) that fall within that circle are counted and used
to calculate the kernel, or the “height” of the hot spot. Generally speaking, the
more criminal events within the circle, the higher the kernel will be for that cell.
This is repeated for every cell within the grid placed over the study area that can
then be used to generate a map showing hot spots: hot spots are usually identified
by the presence of a number of cells that have high kernel values, as can be seen
in Fig. 9.2a.
Fig. 9.2 Kernel density, single versus dual Kernel. Source: Andresen (2014)
No discussion of the consideration for the mapping of anything, including crime pre-
vention, would be complete without a brief discussion of the ecological/atomistic fal-
lacy and the modifiable areal unit problem. The ecological/atomistic fallacy refers to
the improper inference that can be made when analyzing spatial data, including maps,
and the modifiable areal unit problem refers to how the results of an analysis can
change when you change the spatial unit of analysis. We discuss each, briefly, in turn.
The ecological/atomistic fallacy was formally identified by Robinson (1950) when
he identified the conditions that must hold in order to claim that relationships found at
116 M.A. Andresen
one unit of analysis (the neighborhood, for example) would be the same for another
unit of analysis (the individual, for example). He then went on to state how there is no
evidence for these conditions to hold true in any analysis—Openshaw (1984a) showed
that the differences between individual and area-level relationships could not be
known, a priori. As such, the ecological fallacy occurs when a researcher or practitio-
ner states that what is true of the whole is also true of all its parts; the atomistic fallacy
occurs in the opposite direction such that what is true of the parts is also true of the
whole. Of course, the fallacy is rarely, if ever, committed so overtly. Rather, an analy-
sis (for crime prevention, for example) is undertaken using census level data (dissemi-
nation areas of census block groups) and then the researcher or practitioner attributes
the relationships found to the individuals who live in that census area. This is actually
an easy fallacy to commit, but it is also an easy fallacy to avoid.
The modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) also emerges from the aggregation of
data. In the census, for example, data are aggregated from individuals to census tracts
and other spatial units of analysis for subsequent analysis. The trouble is that the
aggregations of these data are usually deemed arbitrary in the sense that they do not
represent “natural units” of analysis. This can emerge in two primary ways: the scale
problem and the zoning problem. The scale problem emerges from analyzing different
sized spatial units of analysis: census block groups, census tracts, and neighborhoods,
for example. The zoning problem emerges when the size and dimension of the spatial
units does not change but they are placed differently on the map—think of dragging
census tract boundaries over by one block, or more. In both cases, different sets of
individuals are aggregated into spatial units of analysis. The problem with these modi-
fiable areas is that the results of any analysis can change, often unpredictably.
Openshaw (1984b) showed that any desired results could be obtained through the
modification of areal units, and Fotheringham and Wong (1991) showed that statisti-
cal results were not reliable and that their results were “depressing”—Wooldredge
(2002) did have more promising results in a spatial crime analysis context.
This does not mean that mapping for crime prevention is inherently problematic.
But it does mean that when undertaking mapping for crime prevention that the
research and/or practitioner must be aware that what they are doing and any results
that they find may be an artifact of the spatial units of analysis that they are using.
Consequently, the use of at least two spatial units of analysis should be undertaken
to (hopefully) show that results are not sensitive to the spatial unit used in the
analysis. It would be recommended to start with the smallest unit of analysis avail-
able (the discrete criminal event point, if possible) and then aggregate, as neces-
sary. This is important because neither the researcher nor the practitioner would
want to improperly identify a location for a crime prevention initiative.
As discussed above, kernel density mapping is one of the most common forms of
crime mapping that is used in crime prevention. Though instructive for its use to iden-
tify crime hot spots, like any analytical technique, it has its limitations. Two of these
limitations are discussed here.
9 Mapping Crime Prevention: What We Do and Where We Need to Go 117
First, kernel density mapping, in its most common form, uses only criminal
event data in order to identify hot spots. But what is a hot spot? John Eck and col-
leagues define as hot spot as “an area that has a greater than average number of
criminal or disorder events, or an area where people have a higher than average risk
of victimization” (Eck, Chainey, Cameron, Leitner, & Wilson, 2005, p. 2). This defi-
nition has two components to it: (1) greater than average number of criminal events,
and (2) higher than average risk. These can be two very different phenomena.
If the researcher or practitioner is concerned with the prevention of the volume
of crime, then a kernel density map that only uses criminal event data is just fine.
However, because criminal events occur when motivated offenders and suitable tar-
gets converge in time and space without the presence of capable guardians (Cohen
& Felson, 1979), where there are more convergences there are more criminal events.
As such, just because there are a lot of criminal events does not mean that a person
is actually at a high risk of victimization. This is quite common in central business
districts and has been known for decades (Schmid, 1960a, 1960b). As a conse-
quence of this, if the intention of a crime prevention initiative is to reduce the risk
of victimization then mapping only criminal events may be problematic. This is
why we calculate crime rates: so we can compare rates across time and space when
we know the population at risk of victimization changes.
In order to control for this in kernel density mapping, if it is a concern, a dual
kernel must be calculated. This is a very simple technique to perform with the only
complication being the need for population at risk data that varies across space at a
spatial resolution that is appropriate for the crime prevention initiative. This is rela-
tively simple when mapping for crime prevention at the level of the city because
reliable data are available for the resident population at the dissemination area (cen-
sus block group) that will give a reasonable approximation of the population at risk,
but is not always a good representation of the population at risk—see Andresen and
Jenion (2010) for a critique of such data. An example of how this impacts the hot
spot map is shown in Fig. 9.2, for violent crime in Vancouver, British Columbia,
Canada, using the ambient population that is more appropriate for considering vio-
lent crime but is not as readily available as census data.
We can see from Fig. 9.2 that using a single-kernel (criminal event data only)
violent crime has a hot spot that is located within the central business district (the
peninsula at the northern portion of the city) that exhibits a distance decay pattern
as one moves away from the central business district. Using this information may
lead the researcher or practitioner to target the high-density area for a crime preven-
tion initiative. This is not incorrect because that is where the volume of violent
crime is occurring, but when considering the dual kernel map that hot spot all but
disappears. The location with the highest density is still in the central business dis-
trict, but no longer in the center of the peninsula; this high-density area is now on
the edge of the central business district itself and closer to skid row. Crime preven-
tion initiatives imposed in the center of the central business district would be very
different from those being implemented on the edge of skid row in any given city.
The second issue regarding kernel density mapping that needs to be made clear is
that the method itself is not technically appropriate for criminal event data. This is
because kernel density mapping is a surface generation technique for geographically
118 M.A. Andresen
There are two aspects of local spatial analysis that are discussed here in the context
of mapping crime prevention. First, when considering the possibility of crime dis-
placement, an example of “local” versus “global” analyses is provided—crime dis-
placement is a well-known and heavily researched area in the field of crime
prevention (Barr & Pease, 1990; Eck, 1993; Hesseling, 1994; Weisburd et al., 2006).
And second, an example is shown regarding changes in spatial patterns of crime that
uses both kernel density mapping and a local spatial analytical technique.
The first example with regard to crime displacement is in the context of a police
foot patrol that took place in North Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. Andresen
and Lau (2014) undertook an evaluation of this police foot patrol initiative and
found that there was a drop in the calls for police service of approximately 17 %,
with most of the reduction in criminal events revolving around mischief and com-
mercial burglary. These authors considered the primary patrol area and a surrounding
9 Mapping Crime Prevention: What We Do and Where We Need to Go 119
area to investigate the possibility of crime displacement from the police foot patrol.
The surrounding area was considered as a whole to measure crime displacement.
However, the surrounding area was relatively large such that it may be difficult to
identify statistically significant increases in the number of criminal events; the pri-
mary patrol area was 0.90 square kilometers, whereas the potential displacement
area was approximately 3 square kilometers. In order to address this concern,
Andresen and Malleson (2014) performed a local analysis of crime displacement on
this police foot patrol initiative and considered 32 units of analysis for crime dis-
placement instead of just 1 unit of analysis.
Andresen and Malleson (2014) used a locally based spatial point pattern test
developed by Andresen (2009) to test the similarity of the spatial patterns of crimi-
nal events before and after the police foot patrol as well as identify the locations in
which the concentrations of crime increased or decreased. As such, this test allowed
the researchers to find out which of the concentrations of criminal events changed
even though it is known that criminal events decreased in both the primary patrol
area and the potential displacement area.
In their analysis, Andresen and Malleson (2014) found that the spatial crime pat-
terns had changed as a result of the police foot patrol. This, of course, is an expected
result because of a police presence in approximately one-quarter of the study area—
commercial burglary did not exhibit much spatial pattern change but the primary
patrol area is where the vast majority of the commercial land use area is located so
not much change could occur. When considering all crime types aggregated together,
little information could be obtained from their results. Some places exhibited
increases in the concentrations of criminal events and other exhibited decreases;
moreover, these increases and decreases occurred in both the primary patrol area
and the potential displacement area. The primary result of interest when considering
all criminal events is that there appeared to be more increases in the concentrations
of criminal events at the border areas of the primary patrol area where less time will
be spent by those who undertake the police foot patrol. In the context of mischief,
the crime type that exhibited the most significant decrease in activity, there was a
moderate indication that the spatial pattern of this crime type shifted away from the
primary patrol area into a small number of areas.
The importance of thinking local should be self-evident from these results.
Global evaluation of the police foot patrol indicates that criminal events decreased
with no evidence for crime displacement. However, the spatial pattern of the remain-
ing number of criminal events had shifted to particular areas. As such, mapping
crime prevention at the local level can allow the researcher and/or practitioner to
identify next steps for the prevention of further criminal activity.
The second example is also in the context of the police foot patrol in North
Vancouver, Canada. In this example, Andresen (2015) shows how the use of the
more standard mapping technique, kernel density mapping, does not provide much
insight regarding any changes in the spatial patterns of criminal events, but another
local spatial statistical technique (local Moran’s I) does provide some insight. The
maps of these two techniques are shown in Fig. 9.3 and represent mischief, the
crime type most impacted by the police foot patrol—the results are similar for other
crime types that Andresen (2015) analyzed.
120 M.A. Andresen
Fig. 9.3 Kernel density, single versus dual Kernel. Source: Andresen (2015)
Comparing Fig. 9.3a, b, very little information can be obtained regarding any
change in the spatial pattern of criminal events. There is a hot spot in both maps at
the southern portion of the study area (contained within the primary patrol area)
with moderate density locations shifting around slightly. If anything is to be identi-
fied, it is the emergence of a moderate intensity “hot” spot in the west side of the
study area. Comparing Fig. 9.3c, d, there also is not a lot of change that occurs.
However, the information is far more specific in the areas of potential concern. The
location in the western section of the study area has actually lost its statistical sig-
nificance as a hot spot (criminal event cluster) and the criminal event cluster area in
the southern portion of the primary patrol area has expanded. This is far more spe-
cific, and curious, information provided than the kernel density maps and may be
because the kernel density maps smooth out the criminal events, as discussed above.
This example shows that the use of one crime mapping technique, particularly in
the context of evaluating a crime prevention initiative, is probably not a good idea.
This does not show that one technique is wrong and one technique is correct, but
that more than one method of analysis should be undertaken to investigate/evaluate
crime prevention. If there is consistency between the multiple methods then the
9 Mapping Crime Prevention: What We Do and Where We Need to Go 121
researcher and/or practitioner can have confidence in the results. If not, caution
must be undertaken before further action is taken.
In their seminal article that outlined the fundamental elements of a criminal event,
Cohen and Felson (1979) stated that a crime occurs when a motivated offender, a
suitable target, and the lack of a capable guardian converge in space and time. As
such, understanding space (where) and time (when) are critical for understanding
crime patterns and, hence, crime prevention. Given that mapping is fundamentally
spatial (it is temporal as well as we shall see below), mapping crime prevention
must pay particular attention to where and when crime occurs.
Similar to the use of local analysis, just knowing where criminal events occur
may be misleading, or at least limited, when trying to understand the crime
problem. As discussed further below, with an example, knowing when criminal
events occur is particularly important. This may seem to be an odd statement in
the context of mapping for crime prevention but it is far more important than
usually thought.
As outlined by Hirschfield (2005), it is not just where and when criminal events
occur that matters, but the combinations of the two: in those places where criminal
events occur, when are they occurring, and at those times when criminal events are
occurring, where are they occurring? These two different questions may lead to very
different interventions. For example, if a location of criminal activity is to be tar-
geted because it is a “known” problem, in order to get the best results from a crime
prevention intervention that intervention should be developed and implemented
considering the timing of those criminal events. If assaults are the problem and
there is a drinking establishment in the area, the timing of most of the assaults will
probably be Friday and Saturday evenings. As such, a crime prevention initiative
that (intentionally or unintentionally) targets a time frame that considers when teen-
agers are out of school (weekdays, 3–6pm) may not be effective. Mapping different
time frames can help with this identification.
It is also possible that a high volume of criminal activity occurs on particular
days and at particular times. If this is the case, all criminal events (or those of inter-
est by the researcher and/or practitioner) that occur within that time range should be
selected and mapped for prevention purposes. It is quite possible that the locations
that emerge will be different than where they would be expected. Perhaps not, but
this needs to be investigated properly to prevent the misuse of scarce resources in
crime prevention. Such different forms of analyses provide much more sophistica-
tion to the mapping of crime prevention without becoming complicated. More maps
will have to be generated, but this extra information will be most instructive for the
prevention of crime.
122 M.A. Andresen
As stated above, routine activity theory highlights the importance of the conver-
gence in space and time for understanding criminal events. Of course, when Cohen
and Felson (1979) were discussing these concepts they were speaking of very spe-
cific moments when motivated offenders and suitable targets converged because
they were interested in understanding specific criminal events, and the aggregation
of those events to understand crime patterns over time. However, we must also
consider time when mapping crime, for crime prevention or not. Most often, this
temporal consideration involves a time frame of criminal events to place on a map:
do we map crime for a particular year, particular season, or a particular month?
This choice obviously depends on the context of the investigation, but it does have
some implications for mapping crime prevention that need to be explicated.
The literature that most commonly investigates these implications is that of sea-
sonality and crime. Such investigations have gone back to early nineteenth century
France (Quetelet, 1842) and find that a seasonal pattern is quite often present—see
Andresen and Malleson (2013) for a discussion of the different studies that do and
do not exhibit seasonality in their criminal event data. If seasonality is present, there
is usually a peak of some degree during the summer months that is explained using
routine activity theory: during the summer months the weather is nicer (warmer and
drier), children are out of school, and people take vacations that all leads to an
increase in motivated offenders and suitable targets converging in time and space
with the lack of capable guardians (Andresen & Malleson, 2013). Because of this
phenomenon, anyone evaluating a crime prevention initiative must consider the
timing of that initiative because measuring the presence of before and after effects
could simply be because of changing of the seasons. But there is another consider-
ation when mapping crime prevention.
The other consideration is that crime patterns may change at different times of the
year, or even different days of the week. As such, when mapping where criminal events
are occurring, the researcher or practitioner must also consider when criminal events are
occurring if s/he wishes to know the appropriate place (and time) to implement a crime
prevention initiative, as discussed above. Unfortunately, there is very little research in
this area to call on in order to show its importance. Overall, this research shows that
during the peak season(s) for criminal events, there is a particular spatial pattern that
emerges: criminal events appear to increase disproportionately in areas/neighborhoods
that are of low socioeconomic status (Breetzke & Cohn, 2012; Ceccato, 2005; Harries
& Stadler, 1983; Harries, Stadler, & Zdorkowski, 1984). Though instructive, this may
not have any particular implications for mapping crime prevention because criminal
events are most often over-represented in these areas anyway.
In an investigation of changing spatial patterns for different seasons and a variety of
crime types, Andresen and Malleson (2013) found that the spatial patterns of crime were
quite dissimilar at different times of the year—only sexual assault and robbery at small
spatial units of analysis (dissemination areas, equivalent to the census block group) had
little change in their spatial patterns from season to season. As shown in Fig. 9.4,
9 Mapping Crime Prevention: What We Do and Where We Need to Go 123
Fig. 9.4 Spatial changes in crime patterns, summer versus yearly aggregate. Source: Andresen
and Malleson (2013)
124 M.A. Andresen
criminal events increased during the summer in very predictable places: the beach,
the central business area, large parks, large shopping centers, and the summer
fair (PNE).
This analysis shows that if crime prevention is truly the goal during a crime
prevention initiative—it could be community building, for example—the time
frame chosen to identify problem areas is very important. Do you want to decrease
criminal events based on criminal events that occur over the course of the year? Or
do you want to focus on criminal events that occur during a particular time of year
because that is when most of the criminal events occur? It should be clear that the
choice made will impact the effectiveness of the crime prevention initiative, because
if the “wrong” or “inappropriate” criminal events are mapped, that crime prevention
initiative may be implemented incorrectly because the prevention of crime is highly
situational (Clarke, 1980, 1983, 1997, 2012).
The example shown here has used a rather coarse temporal unit of analysis, the
season. Criminal events are also known to have different temporal patterns by day
of the week (more assaults during the weekend, for example) and even within the
day (residential burglaries tend to occur during the day and commercial burglaries
during the night) (Andresen, 2014). If spatial patterns of crime vary based on these
temporal units of analysis, the implications for crime prevention become even
stronger. If we are to map for the purposes of crime prevention we must map the
temporal dimension properly as well.
Concluding Thoughts
This chapter considers the importance of mapping for crime prevention. Rather than
simply discussing how to undertake that mapping within any particular software
program, some considerations for what should be done are discussed as well as
some cautions for the various techniques are discussed.
I try to cover aspects of mapping for crime prevention that do not involve any
specialist knowledge. Of course some training in mapping software is neces-
sary, but no specialist training is required. All of these techniques are readily
available in packaged software, most of which in the most common ArcGIS
software program.
The most important aspect of these discussions to consider is that one does not
have to get into complicated analyses when mapping for crime prevention. However,
more sophisticated analyses will prove to be instructive to understand the local
crime problem as well as provide more precise guidance as how to address that
problem with a crime prevention initiative. Mapping for crime prevention is a fruit-
ful endeavor that can very easily aid in the effective use of scarce resources for the
prevention of crime.
9 Mapping Crime Prevention: What We Do and Where We Need to Go 125
References
Giulia Berlusconi
Introduction
Social network analysis (hereafter SNA) has been increasingly adopted by both
criminologists and law enforcement agencies to study crime. It refers to the analysis
of the patterns of social interactions among actors and how these patterns influence
individual behaviors (Wasserman & Faust, 1994). In criminology, SNA has proven
to be a valuable tool for the study of personal and neighborhood networks and their
influence on crime and for the analysis of criminal groups.
This chapter discusses the network approach in criminology and the various
areas of the application of SNA in the criminological context. It describes how SNA
is a valuable tool not only for research but also for law enforcement purposes.
Within law enforcement agencies, SNA methods and techniques have mainly been
used for the purpose of crime enforcement. In the context of this contribution, it is
argued that social network methods and techniques have great value for crime pre-
vention as well.
Less than two decades ago, Nigel Coles (2001) suggested that it’s not what you
know, but who you know that counts (emphasis in the original). Coles was convinc-
ingly arguing for the adoption of SNA in the study of crime and, in particular, of
criminal groups. Indeed, “social network analysis has the very real potential to
uncover the complexities of criminal networks” (Coles, 2001, p. 581). This poten-
tial exists, according to the author, not only in a set of methodological techniques
G. Berlusconi (*)
Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore—Transcrime, Milan, Italy
e-mail: giulia.berlusconi@unicatt.it
but also in two valuable insights: (1) every individual is part of a larger social sys-
tem whose participants influence his behavior and (2) the pattern of interaction with
other actors often follows certain rules or regularities (Coles, 2001; see also
Galaskiewicz & Wasserman, 1994; Knoke & Kuklinski, 1991). Analyzing such
regularities could help unpack criminal groups, their activities, and organizations.
While suggesting the great potential of SNA for studying organized crime, Coles
(2001) complained about the failure of criminologists to adopt SNA’s concepts and
methods to better understand criminal groups. Ten years later, in a review of the
applications of SNA in criminology, Papachristos (2011) sadly acknowledged that
only a very limited number of papers adopting network analysis had been published
in criminology journals, compared to sociology and public health papers. This
neglect was even more striking considering the number of network-related concepts
and images that permeate criminological theories (e.g., social control, peer
influence).
The skepticism by criminologists towards SNA may be partially due to the fact
that it implies a departure from most traditional regression-oriented approaches that
assume independence among the variables (Emirbayer, 1997; Papachristos, 2011).
SNA considers social actors as interacting units. Furthermore, these interactions
shape individuals’ behaviors, including deviant ones. Therefore, from a theoretical
point of view, SNA emphasizes the interdependence among actors rather than their
independence. As a consequence, the independence assumption as the basis of most
causal analyses using regression models is no longer valid and new methods have to
be applied (Papachristos, 2011).
From a methodological point of view, SNA encompasses a range of techniques
rooted in mathematical graph theory (Carrington, Scott, & Wasserman, 2005;
Wasserman & Faust, 1994). Social networks consist in a set of nodes (or vertices)
and the edges (or lines) among them. The former can be represented by individuals,
groups, or even countries, while the latter exist when a relation is present between
two nodes. Edge connecting nodes may have different meanings (e.g., friendship,
exchange of information, co-offending) and may have various properties. Indeed,
the weight or the direction of the edges may be specified, for example, by counting
the number of telephone calls between two actors or by recording the sender and the
receiver of the call (Scott, 2000; Wasserman & Faust, 1994).
In their reviews of studies applying SNA in criminology and its methods and data
collection strategies, various authors have demonstrated the versatility of this
approach (Calderoni, 2014b; Carrington, 2011; Grannis, 2014; Haynie & Soller,
2014; McGloin & Kirk, 2010; Papachristos, 2006, 2011; Piquette, Smith, &
Papachristos, 2014; Radil, 2014). Carrington (2011) identifies three main areas of
application of SNA in criminological research.
First, SNA can be adopted to research the influence of personal networks on
crime and, more generally, on delinquent behavior. This category includes studies
on the consequences that personal networks may have on juvenile delinquency or,
in fewer cases, on adult criminality (e.g., Ennett et al., 2006; Haynie, 2001, 2002;
Kreager & Haynie, 2011; McGloin, 2009; Payne & Cornwell, 2007). Such analyses
use social networks as independent variables to explain crime across the population.
10 Social Network Analysis and Crime Prevention 131
Indeed, the structure of social relations (i.e., the attributes of personal networks) is
considered an explanatory variable of crime and delinquent behavior in addition to
individual characteristics (Haynie & Soller, 2014; Papachristos, 2011).
A second category of studies adopting SNA in criminological research encom-
passes the analyses of neighborhood networks and their influence on crime
(Carrington, 2011). Recognizing the importance of the “neighborhood effects” on
crime (Sampson, Morenoff, & Gannon-Rowley, 2002), these studies adopted SNA
to assess the facilitating and deterring effects that the structural properties of
neighborhood networks have on crime and delinquency rates (Soller & Browning,
2014). Recent studies also focused on interactions among neighborhoods and the
effects of these interactions on crime by integrating spatial and social network
methods. Drawing on the idea that “observable outcomes in one neighborhood are
partly the product of social actions and activities that can stretch beyond local
communities” (Radil, 2014, p. 4995; see also Morenoff, Sampson, & Raudenbush,
2001), some authors have started to model proximity not only in geographical
terms but also in social network terms (e.g., Tita & Radil, 2010). Levels of crime
in a neighborhood are thus influenced by features of both geographically proxi-
mate locations and places connected by social ties (e.g., rivalries among gangs)
(Radil, 2014).
Finally, SNA has been adopted to explore and model the organization of crime
(Carrington, 2011). Street gangs (e.g., McGloin, 2007; Papachristos, 2006), terrorist
groups (e.g., Krebs, 2001; Rothenberg, 2002), and organized crime groups (e.g.,
Bright, Caitlin, & Chalmers, 2012; Calderoni, 2012; Campana, 2011; Morselli,
2009; Natarajan, 2006; Varese, 2013), as well as illicit markets and co-offending
networks (e.g., Bichler, Schoepfer, & Bush, 2015; Heber, 2009; Malm, Bichler, &
Nash, 2011), have been analyzed through the lens of SNA. In recent years, scholars
have also adopted SNA to study online networks (e.g., Décary-Hétu, 2014a; Décary-
Hétu & Dupont, 2012). In this context, the network is analyzed as a dependent vari-
able and social network techniques are adopted to describe the criminal group and
its main structural properties (Papachristos, 2011). Indeed, SNA makes it possible
to seek, rather than assume, the structure of a criminal group (Morselli, 2009).
Therefore, within this approach, all types of organizations, from decentralized to
hierarchical, are conceived as networks of collaborating criminals, and the struc-
tural properties of such networks are subject to analysis through social network
measures.
As Carrington (2011, p. 244) notes, “this research tends to be exploratory and
descriptive rather than theory-testing,” although SNA also allows scholars to test
hypotheses from the literature and compare criminal networks across countries or
markets (Calderoni, 2014b; Papachristos, 2011). For instance, the idea that hierar-
chy does not play a pivotal role in mafia associations in specific circumstances such
as international drug trafficking can be tested and possibly supported by empirical
studies (see Calderoni, 2012). In recent years, scholars have started to adopt statistic
models for social networks to identify the social processes underlying illicit net-
work formation and development as a consequence of both endogenous and exog-
enous factors (Bichler & Franquez, 2014; Boivin, 2014; Everton & Cunningham,
132 G. Berlusconi
2014; Berlusconi, Aziani, & Giommoni, 2015). Therefore, SNA also fosters an
understanding of the etiology and dynamics of criminal groups and illicit trade
networks.
The adoption of SNA in criminology has proven to be a valuable tool for various
reasons. First, it can help refine criminological theories founded upon the idea that
personal—and neighborhood—networks play a role in the etiology of deviance and
crime (Papachristos, 2014). Second, it helps understand complex organizations such
as organized crime and terrorist groups. As a consequence, academics and law
enforcement agencies have adopted SNA for crime enforcement purposes
(Calderoni, 2014b).
If scholars were skeptical about the adoption of SNA to study crime, others
directly involved in criminal intelligence recognized its potential for the analysis
of criminal networks (Coles, 2001). In this context, SNA has been considered a
valuable tool almost exclusively to study criminal groups for the purpose of
crime enforcement.
Since the 1970s, law enforcement agencies have increasingly applied link analy-
sis “to portray the relationships among suspected criminals, to determine the struc-
ture of criminal organizations, and to identify the nature of suspected criminal
activities” (Harper & Harris, 1975, p. 157). Link analysis is adopted for both tactical
and strategic intelligence analysis, as it allows the identification of connections
among individuals using information on activities, events, and places (Sparrow,
1991a; Strang, 2014; Van der Hulst, 2009). The output of this type of analysis is a
two-dimensional representation of actors and the relations among them. The stron-
ger the relationship between two actors, the closer they will be displayed in the
graph representing the network (McAndrew, 1999).
Link analysis has the advantage of visually representing criminal networks start-
ing with the law enforcement data. However, this analysis is not interested in the
mechanisms behind the formation and persistence of criminal networks.
Furthermore, since it does not entail any mathematical computation, the way con-
nections among actors are represented in the graph are likely to influence the under-
standing of the network under analysis. For instance, actors in the center or at the
top of the graph may be interpreted as central actors or leaders regardless of their
values of degree or betweenness centrality (Klerks, 2001; McGrath, Blythe, &
Krackhardt, 1997; Van der Hulst, 2009).1 Instead, SNA enables the analysis of the
structural properties of criminal networks through a set of measures based on
1
Degree and betweenness measure an actor’s centrality within a network. Degree centrality mea-
sures the number of nodes with which each node is connected. Betweenness centrality measures
the extent to which a node lies on the shortest path between any two other nodes (Wasserman &
Faust, 1994).
10 Social Network Analysis and Crime Prevention 133
mathematical graph theory. Network properties are thus calculated rather than
inferred from a graph representing the criminal group (Davis, 1981; McAndrew,
1999).
Since the 1980s, the adoption of SNA for strategic analysis and enforcement of
criminal groups has been advocated by several authors, including law enforcement
analysts (Davis, 1981; Lupsha, 1980, 1983). In the following years, the adoption of
SNA to criminal intelligence was also promoted by scholars researching organized
crime. A common argument for its adoption was that its techniques allow an in-
depth analysis of the internal configuration of criminal groups and are thus valuable
for research, intelligence, and investigation. However, in most cases, such claims
were not supported by empirical analyses of criminal organizations (Ianni & Reuss-
Ianni, 1990; McAndrew, 1999; Sparrow, 1991b; Van der Hulst, 2009).
Van der Hulst (2009) identified various fields of crime enforcement in which
SNA could provide valuable insights. SNA could help identify the key actors to be
removed from the network to achieve destabilization and predict the impact of their
removal as a consequence of an arrest by law enforcement agencies. Social network
techniques could also help identify aliases through the analysis of actors with simi-
lar patterns of connections, especially in the case of large investigations, and they
could provide evidence for prosecution. Furthermore, SNA may help identify poten-
tial defectors according to their position in the network (Faulkner & Cheney, 2015).
SNA is currently adopted by law enforcement agencies. Duijn and Klerks (2014)
describe the Dutch experience and the benefits for intelligence and investigation.
According to the authors, SNA is particularly useful in guiding operational intelli-
gence projects with the aim to identify strategies to target and disrupt criminal net-
works. For instance, the analysis of the topology of a network enables to define the
targeting strategy that is likely to lead to the maximum of network disruptions (Xu
& Chen, 2008).
Despite evidence of positive experiences with the adoption of network tech-
niques for intelligence and investigation, law enforcement analysts also show some
skepticism towards SNA, mainly because they do not observe any significant
advantage offered by current applications to crime enforcement, especially for long-
term investigations in which police agencies managed to gather detailed knowledge
on the suspects from different sources (e.g., wiretapping, background checks)
(Calderoni, 2014b). Nonetheless, SNA can be useful for intelligence collection. In
particular, it can aid ongoing investigations in identifying key individuals and sub-
groups within a larger network of co-offenders, and suggesting effective strategies
for network disruption (Strang, 2014).
For instance, Calderoni (2014a) described how SNA can be useful to identify mafia
bosses with limited information. Contrary to most network studies on criminal groups,
the author retrieved the network structure using information on meetings among co-
offenders, which is easily accessible also at the preliminary stages of a criminal inves-
tigation and is not conditioned by a court order. In the context of a hierarchical
organization such as the Italian ‘Ndrangheta, individual positions within the network
(e.g., degree and betweenness centrality scores) can help identify the leaders of the
criminal group with limited information and resources (Calderoni, 2014a).
134 G. Berlusconi
Similarly, dynamic modeling has been applied to illicit trade networks, such as the
gun trade (Bichler & Franquez, 2014). Indeed, SNA can help identify the
consequences of various strategies to disrupt criminal groups and other types of
illegal networks, such as online child exploitation networks and other clandestine
online networks (Keegan et al., 2010; Kila & Bouchard, 2015).
Finally, SNA can help map the rivalries among gangs and the related violence for
the purpose of understanding the patterns of gang-related violence and predicting
future conflicts (Piquette et al., 2014). For instance, Descormiers and Morselli
(2011) analyzed how gang-level attributes (e.g., ethnicity) and other factors (e.g.,
proximity of gang turf) help to anticipate conflicts among gangs in Montreal.
Similarly, Papachristos (2009) focused on retaliation among gangs in Chicago and
described how patterns of gang-related violence can be explained by prior conflict
relations and the position of the gangs within rivalry networks.
Other studies modeled the effects of both geographic and network processes on
gang violence. They found that both spatial proximity and prior conflicts (i.e., rival-
ries among gangs) influence the patterns of gang violence (Brantingham, Tita,
Short, & Reid, 2012; Papachristos, Hureau, & Braga, 2013; Radil, Flint, & Tita,
2010; Tita & Radil, 2011). These studies consider networks as the dependent vari-
able, whereas explanatory variables include properties of the network (e.g., reci-
procity), of the nodes (e.g., size of the gang, ethnicity), and of the location (e.g.,
poverty level in a neighborhood), as well as spatial proximity of gangs’ turfs and
other social processes (Papachristos, 2011).
Analyses of gang-related violence adopting a network approach may suggest
interventions at the gang level that could prevent specific groups from perpetrating
violence against rival gangs (Papachristos, 2009). For instance, gang injunction
policies may be revisited to incorporate the results from the network analysis of
gang rivalries and alliances and to consider the event of a reorganization of the
gangs targeted by injunctions. Insights into the effects of intervention strategies may
also be acquired through the adoption of network models that simulate gang-related
violence and predict future events (Hegemann et al., 2011; Tita, Butts, Valasik, &
Brantingham, 2012).
Conclusions
Acknowledgments I would like to thank Dr. Francesco Calderoni, Dr. Benoit Leclerc, and the
anonymous reviewer for their valuable comments on earlier versions of the manuscript.
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Chapter 11
Using Social Network Analysis to Design
Crime Prevention Strategies: A Case Study
of Methamphetamine Manufacture
and Trafficking
David A. Bright
network (Bright et al., 2014; Xu & Chen, 2009). SNA can also guide the collection
of intelligence by prioritizing surveillance targets (Schwartz & Rouselle, 2009).
One limitation of these detection and disruption strategies is that they can be trig-
gered only when a network is formed and once law enforcement agencies have col-
lected sufficient intelligence on the actors and connections between them.
Comparatively little attention has been paid to the capacity for SNA to reveal crime
prevention strategies which may be effective against organized crime groups such as
those involved in trafficking illicit drugs. In this chapter, I present a case study of a
methamphetamine manufacture/trafficking network and analyze the network using
SNA in conjunction with crime script analysis (CSA). The aim of the analysis is to
generate a set of crime prevention strategies. Although the crime prevention strate-
gies developed are directed specifically at the manufacture and trafficking of meth-
amphetamine, the strategies are likely to be generalizable to the manufacture and
trafficking of other synthetic drugs and to other forms of organized crime (e.g.,
people trafficking, illicit firearm trafficking, money laundering).
SNA is an analytic technique that conceptualizes social groups as networks.
SNA conceptualizes individuals in the network as nodes and the links or relation-
ships between individuals as ties. SNA can produce metrics about the network as a
whole (density, centralization), at the subgroup level (e.g., clustering, cliques) and
at the actor level (e.g., centrality). Centrality scores can provide information about
the relative influence, authority, and power of actors in the network. SNA can assist
in the identification of key actors in criminal networks. Key actors include those
who are connected to many other actors (high degree centrality) and those who act
as brokers between pairs of actors (high betweenness centrality). In criminal net-
works actors who are high on degree centrality may also be vulnerable by virtue of
the fact that they are so well connected and therefore more visible. The most strate-
gically positioned actors may therefore be those who are low on direct directedness
(low degree centrality) and high on brokerage potential (high betweenness central-
ity; see Morselli, 2010; Calderoni, 2014).
In this chapter, I use SNA as the primary method to describe the social connec-
tions and identify key actors in a case study of a criminal network. CSA is used as
a complementary strategy to describe social connections across crime scenes.
Crime scripts (Cornish, 1994) refer to the sequence of activities that must be acted
out to successfully commit a crime. The crime script approach disaggregates
organized crime into a series of connected events called “crime scenes” or
“niches” (Ekblom, 2003). As crime scripts usually comprise multiple scenes, and
can include several alternate iterations in each scene (Morselli & Roy, 2008), they
facilitate flexibility and innovation across the crime commission process. Crime
scenes or niches depend on interconnections between offenders (Ekblom, 2003);
each crime scene is supported by the loose, flexible networks of actors who popu-
late the scenes, collect the necessary resources, skills, and knowledge, and under-
take the activities necessary to fulfill the scripts (Bright & Delaney, 2013; Morselli
& Roy, 2008). SNA can be used in conjunction with CSA to identify and highlight
these types of relationships and associations (for example, see Bright & Delaney,
2013; Morselli & Roy, 2008).
11 Using Social Network Analysis to Design Crime Prevention Strategies… 145
Within crime scenes, actors may specialize in particular roles, with some inter-
changeability between roles (Bright & Delaney, 2013). As the number of roles
required tends to increase with the complexity of the crime, social networks become
an important source of the skills, resources, equipment, knowledge, and labor
required offender cooperatively complete the crime commission process. The pri-
mary sets of actors are likely to organize themselves into social networks that facili-
tate the exchange of skills and resources and which can minimize risks. The process
of forming branching networks facilitates the accumulation of both human capital
(skills, resources, knowledge) and social capital (connectedness, combining
resources in a way that facilitates the crime). Within each crime scene, actors will
choose situations/context in which they expect to be subjected to minimal (if any)
scrutiny and therefore low risk, or be able to corrupt officials.
Drug law enforcement agencies tend to prioritize interventions that produce arrests,
convictions, and seizures (Chiu, Leclerc, & Townsley, 2011). Unfortunately, these
priorities and the exigencies of law enforcement practice mean that there is usually
no systematic long-term collection or analyses of data on the structures and pro-
cesses characteristic of criminal groups. Furthermore, reactive interventions such as
crackdowns, raids, search and seizure, and buy-busts (Mazerolle, Soole, & Rombouts,
2006) only target offenders who are already known to police and often only after
crimes have been committed. Law enforcement agencies rarely analyze criminal
groups beyond the immediate needs of operational interventions. To facilitate crime
prevention approaches against organized crime, scholars are now beginning to
explore the potential for social network analysis and related approaches to devise
crime prevention strategies for organized crime. There is some extant scholarly work
on crime prevention focused on organized crime. This work is used as a springboard
for the development of crime prevention strategies using the results of SNA.
Crime prevention is well established within criminology, but has mostly
focused on street crime and violent crime, rather than organized crime (for an
overview, see Sutton, Cherney, & White, 2013). According to Ekblom (2003), the
design of crime prevention strategies should proceed in three phases: (1) a com-
prehensive description and analysis of the crime problem; (2) a precise articula-
tion of scenes, actors, skills, and resources; and (3) consideration of an extensive
range of options to undermine the crime script. Although this process was designed
for more traditional crimes committed by individuals (e.g., property crime),
Ekblom (2003) shows that it can be applied to the development of crime preven-
tion strategies directed at organized crimes such as drug trafficking. Ekblom’s
approach is used in this chapter to apply results of social network analysis to the
development of crime prevention strategies.
146 D.A. Bright
Organized crime has two distinct features that have the potential to frustrate
attempts to design effective crime prevention strategies (Cornish & Clarke, 2002;
Levi & Maguire, 2004; Hancock & Laycock, 2010). Firstly, organized crime scripts
tend to be complex and can involve the sharing of necessary resources and equip-
ment, a variety of locations, extended timeframes, a number of different actors, and
a range of activities (i.e., a complex crime script). The complexity inherent in orga-
nized crime such as drug trafficking renders difficult any attempt to generate crime
prevention strategies, especially those relating to specific situations or circum-
stances. Secondly, organized crime is characterized by the existence of an organized
group of offenders who link together to share resources, skills, and experience that
facilitate the enactment of the crime script. The focus on criminal networks is rec-
ognition that in organized crime, individuals are usually part of an extended net-
work that is involved in crime commission across the supply chain. In the case of
drug trafficking this may involve gathering necessary supplies, bringing together
actors with requisite skills, contracting specialists, and seeking customers. Organized
crime can then be conceptualized as involving two levels for the purposes of the
design of crime prevention strategies: (1) the crime commission process; (2) crimi-
nal networks.
In this two-level conceptualization of organized crime, the primary criminal act
is comprised of a sequence of scenes or niches that are connected across time and
place, and are dependent on the existence of a loosely connected network of actors
who bring together and exchange the required skills, knowledge, resources, and
the capacity to exploit crime opportunities as they arise (see Morselli, 2010;
Schwartz & Rouselle, 2009). Due to the complexity inherent in organized crime
such as drug trafficking, there is usually a division of labor, and the crime commis-
sion process relies on the exchange of skills and resources. From one crime scene
to the next the situations and targets (i.e., skills, resources, actors) change.
Therefore, different subgroups of actors are likely to be involved in the different
crime scenes. This has important implications for the development of prevention
strategies. Prevention strategies targeted at vulnerabilities in crime scripts/scenes
may prevent offending by increasing risks significantly so that offenders are no
longer willing to assume requisite risks, or drive changes in offender behavior as
they attempt to circumvent such risks. Prevention strategies seek to undermine the
successful implementation of activities in crime scenes by reducing opportunities
and/or increasing risks.
Another challenge for crime prevention against organized crime is that for
crime prevention strategies to be determined, usually the “target” must be identi-
fied. However, in the case of organized crime, the target is more difficult to iden-
tify. CSA and SNA can be used to overcome this challenge. Through the use of
CSA and SNA, the key questions regarding target specification become: (1) What
are the skills, resources, and knowledge that are required to successfully imple-
ment the crime scene?; (2) Who are the actors involved and what are the charac-
teristics of the connections or relationships between the actors?; and (3) What are
the characteristics of the network as a whole and how does this relate to the crime
commission process?
11 Using Social Network Analysis to Design Crime Prevention Strategies… 147
Method
The first task was to collect relational and actor data on the criminal network1. The
criminal network was engaged in the manufacture and trafficking of the synthetic drug,
methamphetamine. Methamphetamine is produced by transforming precursor chemi-
cals (e.g., pseudoephedrine) into methamphetamine via any one of a variety of chemi-
cal processes. Data was extracted from files of the Office of the Director of Public
Prosecutions (ODPP) in NSW, Australia. File information included details of a police
investigation and subsequent prosecution across an 8-year period. Files included
1
Data was used in a previous study on the evolution of criminal networks; see Bright & Delaney,
2013).
148 D.A. Bright
Previous research (Ritter, Bright, & Gong, 2012; Bright & Delaney, 2013; Chiu
et al., 2011) has studied the crime scenes or supply chain steps required to manufac-
ture and traffic methamphetamine in Australia. For the purposes of this chapter I use
the four steps identified by Bright and Delaney (2013) as this is the most parsimoni-
ous version and simplifies the analyses. Future research could attempt to replicate
the results documented here using the crime script analysis of Chiu et al. (2011) in
which seven steps are used. The four crime scenes used in this chapter are:
1. Sourcing precursor chemicals and laboratory equipment: Precursor chemicals
can be obtained in a number of ways including importation, diversion from legit-
imate chemical industries, and the bulk purchase of “cold and flu” medications
that contain pseudoephedrine. Laboratory equipment can be purchased from
chemical/laboratory equipment retailers, or regular kitchen equipment can be
used as a substandard alternative.
2. Manufacture of methamphetamine in clandestine laboratories: Several different
chemical processes or “recipes” can be employed to convert precursor chemicals
into methamphetamine. These conversion processes vary in complexity and the
requisite knowledge and skills required.
3. Wholesale level distribution of methamphetamine: Following manufacture,
methamphetamine is packaged into kilogram and multiple kilogram amounts
and sold to wholesale distributors. The “pure” methamphetamine produced in
the laboratory is usually diluted or “cut” with impurities prior to being sold at
wholesale level. Wholesale dealers then “cut” the drug further, divide the larger
amounts into smaller amounts, and sell to retail level dealers.
4. Retail level distribution of methamphetamine: Retail level dealers divide the
drug into single dosage units, usually following further “cutting,” and then sell
to illicit drug users.
11 Using Social Network Analysis to Design Crime Prevention Strategies… 149
File information was also used to allocate each actor to a role within the network.
Roles included “precursor providers” who sourced the necessary chemical precur-
sors, and “wholesale dealers” who sold methamphetamine in kilogram and multiple
kilogram quantities. When actors appeared to have more than one role, the primary
role played by the actor was determined.
Actors were also allocated to the crime scene in which they participated. For
example, some workers were provided assistance at manufacture sites, whereas oth-
ers provided support in the wholesale dealing scene.
SNA metrics were calculated using the Visone software package (Brandes &
Wagner, 2004). Standardized degree centrality and betweenness centrality scores
were calculated for each actor in both the “early phase” and “late phase” of the
network. Degree centrality indicates the proportion of the other actors in the net-
work to whom an actor is connected. Betweenness centrality is a measure of the
extent to which an actor is positioned on the shortest paths between pairs of other
actors in the network and is usually considered a measure of brokerage potential.
Results
Figures 11.1 and 11.2 display network maps of the “early phase” and “late phase”
of the network respectively. Viewing the two graphs simultaneously reveals that the
network expanded in size between the early phase and the late phase. The network
originated with M1.13 who was “cooking” methamphetamine for his own use. He
also supplied the drug to his group of friends and associates. Expansion of the net-
work occurred when M1.13 was introduced to M1.5 who was able to supply large
amounts of precursor chemicals. M1.5 introduced M1.13 to M1.16 who also had
access to large amounts of precursor chemicals. With this increased supply, M1.13
could manufacture larger amounts of methamphetamine.
During the early phase of the operation, M1.13 took a proportion of the drug for
his own use. Associates and friends of M1.13 contributed to the network by provid-
ing their homes as sites for manufacture, and provided assistance at laboratory sites
(e.g., conveying equipment, checking on the site). In return, they received drugs and
money.
M2.3 joined the network in around 1993 and he established ties with metham-
phetamine cooks, workers, and dealers. M1.16, M1.5, and M2.3 were provided with
large amounts of precursor chemicals by M2.5 who was the owner of a chemical
supply business. By the late phase, the network had evolved into a large metham-
phetamine manufacture business, with several clandestine laboratory sites. It
included wholesale and retail niches involving many actors.
150 D.A. Bright
Results of the SNA show that the network became less dense and more centralized
over time. In the “early phase” the network comprised 20 actors and 29 links with a
density of 15.26 % and an average degree of 2.90. By the “late phase,” the network
had expanded to 57 actors and 144 ties with a density of 8.71 % and an average
degree of 4.97. Centralization in the early phase of the network was 41.52, while in
the late phase network it was 67.30. It should be noted that centralization and den-
sity are influenced by the number of actors in the network, which renders these
metrics difficult to interpret when comparing networks of different size. Average
degree is a more reliable measure. While the network appeared to become less
dense and interconnected across time, some actors became clear hubs (high degree
centrality) in the network.
Visual inspection of the network map of the early phase of the network reveals
one large chain-like component and two disconnected dyads. M1.13 (the metham-
phetamine cook) had the highest degree centrality score and was directly connected
with more than half of the network (degree centrality = 0.53). M1.18 and M1.19
were next highest on degree centrality, connected to about one third of other actors
in the network (degree centrality = 0.32). M1.13 also had the highest score on
betweenness (0.36) suggesting he was an important broker in the flow of informa-
tion and resources across the network. In the late phase, M2.3 and M1.16 were hubs
(high centrality), connected to 74 % and 51 % of network actors respectively. M2.3
was also high on betweenness centrality (0.66), suggesting he was an important
broker in the late phase of the network.
In the early phase of the network, the network map shows that the methamphet-
amine cook (M1.13) was a well-connected actor and was also a broker in the net-
work. A residence provider (M1.18) and a laborer were both high on betweenness
centrality (brokerage). The most strategically positioned actor (high brokerage, low
degree) was M1.3—an actor whose role is unknown.2
In the late phase of the network, two wholesale dealers (M1.16 and M2.3) were
high on degree and betweenness. One precursor provider was high on both between-
ness and degree centrality. Other high degree/betweenness actors in the late phase
network include laborers (M4.31) and retail dealers (M2.4, M4.32). A strategically
positioned actor was M1.1 a worker in the manufacture scene who appeared to be a
broker across key components of the crime script (e.g., between precursor providers
and cooks and between cooks and wholesale level dealers).
In criminal networks, being high on degree centrality may be a vulnerability
because well-connected actors are more visible. On the other hand, brokerage is
arguably advantageous and does not necessarily indicate high visibility.
Strategically positioned actors are therefore those who are high on betweenness
centrality yet low on degree centrality (see Morselli, 2010; Calderoni, 2014).
Figures 11.3 and 11.4 show that strategically positioned actors (low degree and
high brokerage; see Morselli, 2010) were M1.3 in the early phase and M1.1 in the
2
The “unknown” status may be a result of his high brokerage and low degree. Law enforcement
may not have identified this actor as important either because he was not well connected and/or
because he appeared to play only a minor role.
152 D.A. Bright
late phase of the network. The most visible actors were M1.13 in the early phase
network and M2.3 and M1.16 in the late phase network.
The combined crime script analysis and SNA results are displayed graphically in
Figures 11.5 and 11.6. Three crime scenes were operational in the early phase of the
network (precursor attainment, manufacture, wholesale dealing) while four crime
scenes were present in the late phase (precursor attainment, manufacture, wholesale
dealing, retail dealing). There was no retail dealing in the early phase of the net-
work, whereas by the late phase there was a retail-dealing niche comprising 21 retail
level dealers. This appears to reflect a marked shift in the activities of the network:
from manufacture for personal use and supply to friends, to a focus on profit and
increased manufacture and supply.
Examining roles and crime scenes in more detail reveals some changes between the
early phase network and the late phase network. In the early phase of the network,
one actor was supplying precursor chemicals, whereas by the late phase, four actors
were supplying chemical precursors. Two of the four appeared to be operating
11 Using Social Network Analysis to Design Crime Prevention Strategies… 153
somewhat independently of each other, while the other two were connected to each
other. In the early phase of the network, the manufacture of methamphetamine was
conducted by only one cook (M1.13), while in the late phase of the network there
were four methamphetamine cooks, with each one operating at different lab sites.
This suggests that there was an expansion of manufacture operations between the
early and late phases of the network. Multiple independent laboratory sites increase
overall security; even if one site is detected by law enforcement, other sites remain
to continue manufacture. This increases the need for more individuals with special-
ized skills in cooking methamphetamine as the lab sites operated independently of
each other.
In the early phase, five individuals provided premises and three actors supported
the operation with their labor, while in the late stage there was only one premises
provider (connected only to a precursor chemical supplier) and three individuals
contributing their labor. In the early phase, only one actor was involved in wholesale
distribution (M1.15) while in the late phase 13 actors were involved in wholesale
distribution, 8 as wholesale dealers who were supported by 5 actors who completed
associated tasks such as transporting drugs.
In the late phase of the network, two roles emerge that were not present in the early
phase: corrupt officials and standover men. These new roles may have emerged in
response to increased security concerns in the newly developed profit-driven context.
154 D.A. Bright
Fig. 11.5 Network map with crime scripts and roles showing betweenness centrality: Early phase
of the criminal network
Standover men were connected only to retail level and wholesale level dealers, sug-
gesting that the necessary security or enforcement activities related primarily to the
sale of drugs rather than to other aspects of the operation such as precursor attainment
and manufacture. Corrupt police officers were connected only to a few actors: one
was connected to two of the methamphetamine cooks and precursor suppliers, while
the other two were connected to the most central actor, a wholesale dealer. The corrupt
police officers assisted network actors by tampering with evidence and providing net-
work actors with information regarding the police investigation.
The SNA, complemented by CSA, has aided in a comprehensive description of
the crime commission process and the criminal network per Ekblom (2003). I turn
now to consider the next step in Ekblom’s approach: the design of a range of crime
prevention strategies.
11 Using Social Network Analysis to Design Crime Prevention Strategies… 155
Fig. 11.6 Network map with crime scripts and roles showing betweenness centrality: Late phase
of the criminal network
Prevention strategies can be devised by building on the results of the analyses. Crime
prevention strategies are usually designed to increase effort, increase risk, decrease
rewards, remove excuses, and reduce provocations (Cornish & Clarke, 2003).
Drawing on existing frameworks for crime prevention in organized crime (e.g.,
Ekblom, 2003; Hancock & Laycock, 2010), I categorize prevention strategies into
two primary categories: (1) crime prevention strategies targeted at the crime com-
mission process; and (2) crime prevention strategies targeted at the establishment
156 D.A. Bright
and expansion of criminal networks. While the focus of the strategies is on the
manufacture and trafficking of methamphetamine, many of the prevention strategies
may be broadly applicable to trafficking of other drugs (especially synthetic drugs),
and to other types of organized crime activity.
There are four main crime scenes or niches comprising the crime commission pro-
cess for the manufacture and trafficking of methamphetamine (Bright & Delaney,
2013; Chiu et al., 2011; Ritter et al., 2012): (1) the acquisition of precursor chemi-
cals and laboratory equipment, (2) the manufacture of methamphetamine, (3)
wholesale distribution, and (4) sale of end product at retail level. As detailed above,
within each scene actors play specific roles in order to enact the activities required.
Crime prevention efforts are likely to be more effective when the interventions
occur early in the crime commission sequence: in the case of methamphetamine
manufacture and trafficking, the most effective interventions are likely to be those
against the crime scripts involving obtaining precursors and equipment and manu-
facture of methamphetamine. Therefore, the crime prevention strategies outlined
below focus on these first two scripts in the crime commission sequence. Prevention
strategies focus on the activities undertaken in each scene and the roles played by
actors.
increase the risk of attempting to obtain precursor chemicals and equipment for
illicit purposes. Such partnerships should include the implementation of systems
that facilitate real-time information sharing between companies and law enforce-
ment agencies.
Rewards may also be diminished by specifically targeting chemicals that pro-
duce large and high quality yields, and those that rely on lower risk, relatively easy
cooking methods (see Ritter et al., 2012). Faced with increased effort and risk,
actors may decide to cease production or to use more risky, difficult or untested
cooking methods.
Manufacture
Roles
A number of important roles were identified within each script across the crime
commission process. For example, in the methamphetamine manufacture and
trafficking process, precursor providers and residential premises providers were
important in providing the resources required for the manufacture process.
Prevention strategies should be implemented that restrict the ability of network
actors or other individuals to assume these roles. This can be achieved by increas-
ing the effort and risk required to obtain the necessary resources. As access to
such resources becomes more restricted, it is likely that fewer individuals will be
able to fill the roles. As there are fewer individuals in the “criminal pool” with
access to such resources, it becomes increasingly difficult for network actors to
locate actors who can fill these roles.
158 D.A. Bright
From the results of the SNA and CSA, six areas were identified which may provide
intervention points for crime prevention strategies: (1) Strategic recruitment of
actors with the necessary skills, resources, and experience is necessary to ensure the
completion of the crime commission process; (2) Associations and contacts are
critical for the expansion and adaptability of the network across time; (3) Connections
between legitimate and illegitimate actors are also important to the crime commis-
sion process (e.g., legitimate businesses that sell chemicals may be at risk of coop-
eration or infiltration by organized crime groups; (4) Brokers are key to the operation
of the network and to the flow of information and resources through the network; (5)
Some actors are positioned strategically in the network with low degree centrality
and high betweenness centrality. These actors occupy key brokerage roles and
remain relatively less visible as they have fewer direct connections with other actors;
(6) The network structure as a whole was characterized by loose connections, low
density, and flexibility across time (e.g., fluctuations in centralization). These net-
work level features facilitate the crime commission process and enhance security,
flexibility, and adaptation across time. Each of these six intervention points are
11 Using Social Network Analysis to Design Crime Prevention Strategies… 159
discussed below with recommendations for crime prevention strategies against the
criminal network.
Associations
The SNA identified connections between legitimate businesses and public officials
on the one hand and criminal actors on the other. These connections facilitated
access to an industrial chemist who provided precursor chemicals to the group and
a police officer who interfered with evidence and provided intelligence to network
actors regarding law enforcement strategy and interventions. Prevention strategies
can be employed to limit opportunities for connections between legitimate business
and criminal associates. For example, the effort required to create such partnerships
can be increased through regulation of legitimate businesses that operate in poten-
tially vulnerable industries (e.g., chemical companies, laboratory equipment supply
companies). As mentioned previously, purchasers or precursor chemicals can be
required identification at point-of-sale and databases can be maintained to record all
purchases. Risks can also be increased through the regulation and auditing of
employees, strengthening formal surveillance and informal surveillance of legiti-
mate businesses that are identified as being vulnerable, and education campaigns
targeting employees (e.g., on issues such as integrity, ethics, potential risks).
Brokers
Brokers are those actors who are high on betweenness centrality and play an impor-
tant role in the flow of information and resources through a criminal network (2009b).
The results of analyses suggest that targeting crime prevention strategies at brokers
and potential brokers may be effective in undermining the structure and functionality
of criminal networks. Limitations on access to key resources restrict opportunities for
potential brokers to exploit structural holes (Burt, 1992) between those who wish to
exchange such resources. It may also be possible to identify potential or emerging
brokers based on network position or personal characteristics (Burt, Jannotta, &
Mahoney, 1998; Morselli, 2005). Once emerging brokers are identified, the risks of
detection can be inflated by placing them under increased scrutiny and surveillance.
Fewer opportunities for brokerage can translate into lower rewards both for the
individual brokers and for other network actors who rely on brokers. False informa-
tion can be disseminated to undermine the value of brokers to the criminal network.
Individuals who transmit false or misleading information or who facilitate the
exchange of poor quality resources are of less value to the network and may fail to
successfully occupy brokerage position (Morselli, 2005).
Strategic Position
Actors who are strategically positioned in criminal networks are those who have
relatively high betweenness centrality scores and relatively low degree centrality
scores (Morselli, 2010). They are less visible to law enforcement agencies by virtue
of the low degree but are able to facilitate the transmission of information and
11 Using Social Network Analysis to Design Crime Prevention Strategies… 161
resources due to their high betweenness scores. Prevention strategies could focus on
making it more difficult for actors to achieve such a strategic position in criminal
networks, perhaps by driving them into direct connections with others. Actors who
have many direct connections with other actors are high in degree centrality and are
more visible and vulnerable (increased risks of detection). For example interven-
tions that limit the capacity of actors to remain anonymous or increase the need for
physical meetings between individuals could reduce the number of indirect connec-
tions, and increase direct connections across the network. Such an intervention
would limit the potential for actors to occupy strategic positions within the network.
This could be accomplished through the use of telephone/email surveillance and by
regulation of mobile and other telecommunications devices to require identification
details and impair the capacity of actors to remain anonymous. Counterintuitively,
limits on actors ability to occupy strategic positions could be achieved by facilitat-
ing trust within the network. If actors believe they can trust those around them, they
may be more willing to connect directly rather than through intermediaries.
Increased penalties could be instated for individuals who facilitate or broker
access to resources and equipment required for manufacture. Law enforcement
focus on financial transactions, increased monitoring of suspicious transactions, and
the confiscation of money/profits from organized crime groups can lead to decreased
profit (reward). If actors are concerned that their profits will be confiscated, poten-
tial rewards fall significantly and this may be sufficient to convince some actors to
cease their participation in the criminal enterprise.
Network Structure
Highly centralized networks are those in which there are a proportionately few hubs
(actors with high degree centrality) who are characterized by very many connections to
other actors. A highly centralized network—one with centers of gravity formed around
hubs with clusters of actors surrounding the hub—may be more vulnerable to law
enforcement interventions such as surveillance and arrests. Highly centralized criminal
networks can be dismantled relatively quickly by removing the central actors (hubs) and
then following links to all other actors (e.g., Bright et al., 2014; Xu & Chen, 2009).
Interventions that promote network centralization will increase the risks inherent in
being part of a criminal network and therefore increase the risks of detection and pros-
ecution (see Baker & Faulkner, 1993). This could be achieved by policies that under-
mine trust so that small, dense clusters are formed with only a few trusted associates.
There are a number of limitations of the data and the analysis that should be borne
in mind. First, the data set may contain errors or missing data that have the poten-
tial to bias the results. Furthermore, centrality scores can be artificially influenced
162 D.A. Bright
by the focus of law enforcement efforts. High centrality scores may reflect the
amount of information collected on some actors rather than the actors’ connectivity.
Secondly, the effectiveness of the suggested strategies is largely unknown, although
some have already been evaluated and demonstrated to be efficacious (e.g., precur-
sor controls). Thirdly, as with all crime prevention strategies, there may be some
displacement to other crime. In the case of criminal networks involved in drug
trafficking, prevention strategies that drive groups away from drug manufacture/
trafficking may simply lead to a shift in focus to other illicit activity, e.g., gun traf-
ficking. Finally, the generalizability of the findings and the crime prevention strate-
gies to other criminal networks and other types of organized crime is unknown and
requires further research.
Conclusions
This chapter has demonstrated the utility of SNA and CSA to facilitate the design of
crime prevention strategies against criminal networks. A framework was used to
facilitate the design of crime prevention strategies across two levels in organized
crime groups: (1) crime prevention process; (2) criminal networks. The strategies
aim to undermine the crime commission process and to inhibit the formation and
growth of criminal networks.
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Chapter 12
Uncovering the Social Pecking Order in Gang
Violence
Introduction
Estimates suggest that the more than 33,000 gangs operating in the USA are respon-
sible for generating nearly 48 % of the violent crime, most of which occurs in major
cities and suburban areas (FBI, 2012). The situation in Los Angeles serves as an
illustration; gang-initiated violence accounted for 57 % of the city’s 515 homicides
in 2005 (Winton, 2005). While many street gangs are involved to some extent in the
trafficking of illicit goods and services (e.g., illegal drugs and prostitution), criminal
enterprise does not appear to be the sole impetus of violence. For instance, Houston
and Anglin (1995) show that less than 5 % of the inter-gang-related deaths in Los
Angeles, California, were related to drug trafficking. This finding raises questions
about the nature of gang conflict.
A new thesis about gang violence has begun to emerge from the evidence gener-
ated by recent studies. Drawing upon social network theory, proponents argue that
the behavior of gang members is constrained (and enabled) by the social network
within which the individual and their group are emeshed (e.g., Descormiers &
Morselli, 2011; McCuish, Bouchard, & Corrado, 2015; Papachristos, 2009;
Papachristos, Hureau, & Braga, 2013; Papachristos, Wildeman, & Roberto, 2015).
Gang members do not kill because they are poor, black, or young or live in a socially disad-
vantaged neighborhood. They kill because they live in a structured set of social relations in
which violence works its way through a series of connected individuals (Papachristos,
2009: 75).
Gang Rivalries
One of the most well-known, ongoing gang rivalries is thought to exist between two
predominantly African-American street gangs—the Bloods and the Crips.
Explanations for why the groups formed vary. It is suggested that troubled urban
youth bonded in their quest for “fun,” whereas others argue that young
12 Uncovering the Social Pecking Order in Gang Violence 167
Networked Violence
Intra-Group Conflict
The use of aggressive posturing and violent conflict is not restricted to competitions
for dominance between rival gangs. In fact, several studies document the existence
of intra-gang or intra-consortium violence. For example, Decker and Curry (2002)
found that gang-related homicides in St Louis occurred more often among groups
with the same affiliation: 61.5 % of Crips were killed by other Crips. Descormiers
and Morselli (2011) offer a glimpse into this phenomenon. Through interviews with
20 detained youth gang members, they obtained the information needed to map the
structure of positive and negative associations among 35 groups active in Montreal,
of which 31 % were Bloods subsets and 37 % were Crips. As expected, the majority
of alliances were intra-gang (88 %) and conflict tended to be reported between con-
sortiums (77 %). However, intra-group conflict was found to occur when subsets
were observed to be acting in a fashion that contradicted group norms. Descormiers
and Morselli (2011: 307) report an interviewee stating:
If they represent the same color than our gang, well they better represent it well. If they
don’t do things right, we will have to sort them out (Dawggi, member of the Bloods affili-
ated gang, AYB)
12 Uncovering the Social Pecking Order in Gang Violence 169
Geographic patterns of street gang violence have been widely studied and the gen-
eral finding is that greater density, particularly when there is competition for a stake
in an illicit market, correlates with more violence (e.g., Taniguchi, Ratcliffe, and
Taylor 2011). The conventional explanation is that these patterns of spatial concen-
tration emerge when competing groups claim turf in close proximity. For example,
Robinson et al. (2009) studied the density of gangs in Los Angeles County to test
the hypothesis that homicide rates would be higher in areas with a greater number
of nearby potential rivals. Excluding zip codes with low populations and vast uni-
versity campuses, they found that areas with higher concentrations of street gangs
were directly correlated with elevated homicide levels. Zip codes that contained
more than ten street gangs in a 2-mile radius (of zip code’s center point) accounted
for 40 % of all the homicides in Los Angeles County; yet, these zip codes contained
only 16 % of the County’s population (Robinson et al., 2009).
However, when we consider that conflict diffuses through a network, a more
nuanced understanding of gang violence begins to surface. Through a series of stud-
ies, Tita and colleagues investigated the nature of gang violence among criminally
active street gangs claiming territory in Hollenbeck, a neighborhood in Los Angeles
known for violent gang rivalries (e.g., Tita & Radil, 2011; Brantingham, Tita, Short,
& Reid, 2012). Three critical findings emerge from this body of work.
170 J. Randle and G. Bichler
Current Study
One gap in the extant network-oriented literature is that aggressive posturing and
violence is also used to dominate the local neighborhood through attacks on non-
gang involved people. Asserting dominance within the community is important for
several reasons. A few highly visible attacks on non-gang citizens may cast an
image of omnipresence across the community which may far exceed the group’s
actual control or influence. It follows that this generalized threat could serve the
group well, i.e., acts of public violence may intimidate community members and
decrease interference in group activities that might cut profits gained from illicit
enterprise. Moreover, we know that gang membership is inherently unstable.
Irrespective of the reason why people average only a few years of active involve-
ment, public displays of violence market the group’s prowess and may serve to
attract new members. When the person attacked is not known to be a gang member,
this may have a greater impact on potential recruits that are unaware of the real size,
capabilities, and inter-gang reputation of the group. While Papachristos (2009)
acknowledges that a substantial amount of networked gang violence involves non-
gang-affiliated people, the current study is among the first to investigate how map-
ping these attacks helps us to understand violence networks.
The second contribution made by this chapter is that to our knowledge, this is the
first attempt to map the network structure of violence accruing from the historical
Bloods/Crips rivalry across a region. By examining street gang violence through
this lens, we are able to examine three suppositions about the nature of networked
violence that are drawn from prior studies of city-level violence.
1. Gang violence will reflect the historic rivalry between the Bloods and the Crips.
Most conflict will involve inter-gang violence among subsets, suggesting that
continued retaliation (reciprocal attacks) may be associated with institutional-
ized conflict. It is also expected that local hierarchies will be observed where
some subsets come do subjugate their rivals. Subjugation of subsets may be
observed as a knock-on or domino effect (Group A attacks Group B, and Group
12 Uncovering the Social Pecking Order in Gang Violence 171
B attacks Group C), or a transitive pattern wherein one group attacks many
others or is victimized by many others. These patterns would suggest that an
inter-gang pecking order exists.
2. Local hierarchies will reveal intra-gang conflict. Some subsets will be more
aggressive toward others within the gang as factions vie for dominance over
their counterparts. Subjugation of subsets within a consortium may be observed
as a knock-on or transitive pattern suggesting an intra-gang pecking order exists.
3. Conflict is unlikely to spill across city boundaries, as groups are more apt to
compete with more spatially proximate rivals, and if inter-city violence does
errupt, it is unlikely that groups are from adjacent cities.
If found to be scale invariant, this study offers additional support for the thesis
that gang violence spreads through social networks.
Case Generation
We used information extracted from California court cases in which one or more of
the defendants was suspected or known to be a Blood or Crip gang member at the
time of the incident. To be included in the study
1. The case involved at least one charge/conviction for assault with a deadly
weapon, attempted homicide, or homicide.
2. The defendant was tried as an adult.
3. The violent event occurred in Los Angeles County between January 1st 2002 and
December 31st, 2010 (a period of 9 years).
Eligible court cases were found through LexisNexis, an electronic library that
provides information about federal and state cases. Due to the nature of recording
practicies for California, most of the cases identified through LexisNexis were
appeals for homicides or attempted murder. Thus, the findings reported here cannot
be generalized to less serious violence. The search protocol began with the names
of each active subset (a.k.a. factions) of the Bloods and Crips. This list was gener-
ated with the assistance of two detectives working in jurisdictions with entrenched
gang activity: one detective was from the Inglewood Police Department, and the
other, worked for the Hawthorne Police Department. Each detective modified a list
of Blood and Crip subsets that was retrieved from the Los Angeles County Street
Gangs website (www.streetgangs.com) by adding new factions and removing
groups that were defunct or inactive since January 2002. In addition to ensuring that
the lists were current and complete, detectives were also asked to note which sub-
sets were rivals. The two lists were consolidated and discrepancies resolved prior to
initiating the case identification process. Our search uncovered 284 cases that satis-
fied the inclusion criteria, and these violent crimes involved 439 offenders (includ-
ing defendants and accomplices) and 384 victims. Please note that that the sample
is primarily male: less than 5 % of offenders/victims were female.
172 J. Randle and G. Bichler
Subset-to-subset network. We captured the network of all inter- and intra-gang vio-
lence by aggregating events to the gang subsets. The subset associated with each
defendant (the primary defendant and up to three accomplices) was linked to the
subset associated with each victim. This means that the network is weighted to
reflect the number of victimizations. In total, there were 158 gang subsets, of which
there were: 38 Bloods subsets (24 %), 109 Crips subsets (70 %), and 10 subsets with
no Bloods or Crips affiliation (6 %). Individuals with no-known gang affiliation
were assigned a unique research identification code. This strategy ensured that non-
gang members are not treated as a single group as this would bias the centrality
measures used (see Malm, Bichler, & Nash, 2011). In each dyad, the linkage origi-
nates with a defendant and ends with a victim. The subset-to-subset network had 43
components joining 251 unique entities (37 % of these entities are victims with no-
known gang subset affiliation) with 625 total victimizations (including reflexive ties
that indicate intra-group conflict). Constructing the network in this fashion permits
analysis of the hierarchical structure and magnitude of subset initiated violence.
City-to-city network. A geographic network was produced by aggregating all
gang-affiliated offender-victim pairs to the city associated with the home “turf” of
the subset.
Linking the city associated with the home turf of the defendants’ gang subset to
the city associated with the victims’ claimed gang territory permits an assessment
of where intra- and inter-gang conflict crosses city boundaries. For example, if an
individual that identifies with the Black P-Stones attacks an individual that identi-
fies with the Carver Park Compton Crips, there will be a link between Los Angeles
City and Compton, as the Black P-Stones are based in Los Angeles and Carver Park
Compton Crips are located in Compton. Since both the offender and victim must be
associated with a gang to be included in this analysis, the network contains only 206
links. Of the 15 cities1 identified, the city-to-city network included 12 cities arranged
in a single component.
Structural Variables
Rivalry. Reciprocity occurs when an offender later becomes the victim in another
attack (see the node labeled i in Table 12.1 where the solid line depicts the initial
attack and the dotted line illustrates the retaliation).
A word of caution is warranted. A time window effect may reduce the number
of reciprocal attacks identified at the beginning and end of the study period; that is,
1
Gang subsets were from Altadena, Antelope Valley, Athens, Carson, Compton, Florence, Gardena,
Hawthorne, Inglewood, Long Beach, Los Angeles, Lynwood, Pasadena, Pomona, and Santa
Monica.
12 Uncovering the Social Pecking Order in Gang Violence 173
Table 12.1 Variables used to uncover the structure of inter- and intra-gang violence
Structural variable Visual representation
Reciprocity
Dominance
Degree centrality Outdegree Indegree
Transitive
structures
Chain-like (directed
or transitive ties)
Two-star formations Outward two-star Inward two-star
events occurring at the beginning of the study period may have been in response to
a violent attack occurring before January 2002, but this connection would not have
been captured in the data. Reciprocity may also be affected by several other issues
that are associated with a prosecutorial effect. For example, the length of time
needed to try a major case may push it beyond the study period; plea bargaining
may reduce the number of cases that go to trial; events within a retaliatory sequence
of violence may involve misdemeanors rather than serious felonies; and, some vio-
lent attacks remain undetected or unsolved. Table 12.2 reports that the distribution
of cases peaks in 2005 and that the time window effect may present a greater threat
at the tail end of the interval with only 5.1 % of cases occurring in the final year of
the study period. However, if rivalries are the primary impetus of reciprocated
violence, and the temporal boundary of the study was a problem, we would not
have found a slightly higher than average amount of rivalry cases in 2010. Thus,
our ability to observe reciprocity should not be unduly compromised by a time
window effect.
Dominance. Dominant groups can be identified with two sets of statistics—degree
centrality and transitivity. Degree centrality counts the relative number of links that
each actor possesses (Hanneman & Riddle, 2005). In this study, the links between
actors are directed, permitting us to calculate outdegree and indegree centrality.
Outdegree centrality assesses the number of ties that an actor extends toward
others. Considering the way the networks were generated for this study, a subset
174 J. Randle and G. Bichler
with a high outdegree centrality score is considered to initiate more attacks than
other groups in the network. Since violence may occur among subset members,
reflexive ties capture intra-group violence. Indegree centrality counts the number of
ties received from others. As used here, subsets with high indegree scores are vic-
timized more often and/or by more groups.
By comparing outdegree and indegree centrality scores, we can identify the
dominant groups: those subsets that offend more often than they are attacked.
However, direct aggression alone does not fully reveal the dominance of a group.
Another facet of dominance can be uncovered by examining transitive relations.
Transitivity is a higher order structure involving links among sets of three actors
(Holland & Leinhardt, 1976; Wasserman & Faust, 1994). Here, we are interested in
potential transitivity or “intransitive” structures among triads, that is, sets of three
subsets.
Two forms of potential transitivity are of interest. Examined together, the exis-
tence of chain formations (directed or transitive ties) and two-star formations
(inward and outward) highlight the presence of local hierarchies within the network
(see Table 12.1). Chain-like formations among gang subsets occur when one subset
victimizes another, who in turns attacks a third group. Two-star formations occur
when a group attacks two other groups (outward), or alternatively, when one group
is victimized by two other subsets (inward). Combined, these patterns suggest that
within local circles, some groups are more dominant than others. If these patterns
are observed to illustrate intra-group conflict and reciprocated ties are absent, then
the hypothesis that gang violence is fueled by the Blood/Crip rivalry would not be
supported.
For the city-to-city network, ties represent the total number of gang-on-gang
violent incidents (incidents involving non-gang victims are excluded from this anal-
ysis). Again, in- and outdegree centrality identify the recipients and exporters of
violence, this time at the city level; reflexive ties are indicative of within city con-
flict; reciprocal ties show cities that may be locked in battle or experiencing gang
migration; and, transitivity is taken to reflect an inter-city hierarchy. UCINET 6 was
used to create the networks and calculate all of the structural statistics (Borgatti,
Everett, & Freeman, 2002).
Results
Subset Violence
Rivalry. Table 12.3 reports on reciprocity. Most of the conflicts observed, 67.2 %,
were between subsets and people from the community with no-known gang affilia-
tion. The Crips were more likely to attack non-gang individuals. The Crips were
also involved in more inter-gang attacks and intra-gang conflict.
Turning to gang-on-gang conflict, 62 % of attacks were intra-gang (51.7 % same
gang and 10.2 % same subset) as opposed to between different gangs (37.6 %).
12
Reciprocated violence
Reciprocated conflicts 5 Bloods 1 Bloods-on-Bloods 1 Bloods ←→ Crips –
7 Crips 3 Crips-on-Crips
Number of victimizations 22 26 3 –
Percent of all attacks (N = 625) 3.52 % 4.16 % 0.48 % –
Percent of gang-on-gang attacks 10.73 % 12.68 % 1.46 % –
(N = 205)
175
176 J. Randle and G. Bichler
Table 12.4 Difference in average degree centrality scores between Bloods and Crips
Bloods (n = 38 subsets) Crips (n = 109 subsets)
Outdegree
Mean (SD) 5.68 (8.00) 3.67 (4.82)
Min. to Max. 0 to 45 0 to 36
Difference of means 2.01
T-test (1 tailed) Bloods>Crips 0.05a
Indegree
Mean (SD) 2.05 (2.99) 1.06 (1.94)
Min. to Max. 0 to 12 0 to 14
Difference of means 0.99
T-test (1 tailed) Bloods>Crips 0.02a
Difference (Outdegree—Indegree)
Mean (SD) 3.63 (6.73) 2.61 (4.61)
Min. to Max. −8 to 33 −12 to 31
Difference of means 1.03
T-test (1 tailed) Bloods>Crips 0.16
a
Significant at the p < 0.05 level
Only a small proportion of these attacks generated reciprocal violence. The largest
percent of reciprocated attacks occurred within the gang, either between subsets
(12.7 %) or within the group (10.7 %). Put another way, of the 51 reciprocated vic-
timizations, about 94 % were within group. In the 9-year period examined, two
reciprocated relationships were notably unbalanced:
• Insane Crips caused 5 victimizations and the Rolling 20s Crips attacked twice.
• Rollin 60s Neighborhood Crips generated 12 victimizations and the 83 Gangster
Crips returned one act of violence.
Dominance. Comparing average centrality scores, we see that even though there
are more Crips groups in the sample, the Bloods are involved in more violence.
Table 12.4 reports difference of means T-tests that indicate that subsets associated
with the Bloods are significantly more likely to victimize others and to be attacked.
By calculating the difference between outdegree and indegree centrality, it is
possible to see whether, on balance, one gang is more aggressive than the other.
This means that they would victimize more than they are victimized. While the
T-test fails to achieve significance, on average, Bloods subsets cause more violence
than they receive.
Table 12.5 names the subsets with the highest levels of aggression. Since it is
important to consider overall violence and gang-on-gang violence, two sets of sta-
tistics were generated. To compare structural statistics generated from different net-
works, the outdegree centrality scores are normalized. This accounts for the
difference in network size—the full victimization network contains 625 victimiza-
tions and the gang-on-gang network includes 205 attacks.
At first glance it would appear that the Black P-Stone Bloods are the most aggres-
sive subset in Los Angeles County during the 9-year period examined. However,
12 Uncovering the Social Pecking Order in Gang Violence 177
Table 12.5 Comparison of the five most aggressive subsets from each gang
Rank Bloods Crips
Subset name NrmOutDeg Subset name NrmOutDeg
All violent attacks (N = 625)
1 BLACK P-STONE 0.926 ROLLIN 60S 0.741
BLOODS NEIGHBORHOOD CRIPS
2 BOUNTY HUNTER 0.391 INSANE CRIPS 0.432
BLOODS
3 INGLEWOOD 0.350 GRAPE STREET WATTS 0.370
FAMILY BLOODS CRIPS
4 PASADENA 0.247 EAST COAST CRIPS 0.247
DENVER LANE
BLOODS
5 PUEBLO BISHOP 0.247 TRAGNIEW PARK CRIPS 0.226
BLOODS
Gang-on-gang conflict (N = 205)
1 BLACK P-STONE 0.538 ROLLIN 60S 1.075
BLOODS NEIGHBORHOOD CRIPS
2 FRUIT TOWN PIRUS 0.336 INSANE CRIPS 0.336
3 BOUNTY HUNTER 0.269 ROLLIN 40S 0.269
BLOODS NEIGHBORHOOD CRIPS
4 CRENSHAW MAFIA 0.202 EAST COAST CRIPS 0.269
GANGSTER
BLOODS
5 PASADENA 0.202 ACACIA BLOCK CRIPS 0.269
DENVER LANE
BLOODS
Note: Bold text highlights subsets that are not present in the top five for both networks
removing non-gang-associated victims reveals that among gang subsets, the Rollin
60s Neighborhood Crips are the most aggressive group. While the Black P-Stone
Bloods remain the most aggressive subset of the Bloods, their normed outdegree
centrality score is half of the Rollin 60s Neighborhood Crips.
Many of the highest ranking subsets remain in the top 5, irrespective of the way
in which the network is configured. Of note, two groups swap out for each gang.
Depicted in bold text, the Inglewood Family Bloods and the Pueblo Bishop Bloods
are dominant when all attacks are considered, but they drop from a rank in the top 5
when only gang-on-gang violence is examined. This means that these groups have
a high ranking because of the number of non-gang victims they target. A similar
pattern is apparent for two Crips subsets.
To complete this investigation of local dominance we count the number of
directed lines (transitive ties that form chain-like sequences) and star formations
(inward and outward). About 24 % of victimization paths are directed lines or
chain-like sequences of violence (Table 12.6). The clear majority of potentially
transitive ties are outward 2 stars where one subset victimizes two other groups.
Since many of the victims were individuals with no known gang affiliation, this
178 J. Randle and G. Bichler
Table 12.6 Transitive patterns for the entire network and gang-on-gang conflict
Full network Gang-on-gang
(N = 625) conflict (N = 205)
Structure Visualization Count Percent Count Percent
Potentially transitive
Directed line 324 24.02 78 41.71
Outward 888 65.83 50 26.74
With reciprocity
Outward with one 64 4.74 17 9.09
reciprocal tie
Inward star with one 10 0.74 10 5.35
reciprocal tie
Fully reciprocal star 0 0.00 0 0.00
formation
abundance of outward star structures may be inflated since individuals were not
combined into groups.
Selecting only conflict among subsets, we find a considerably different structure.
About 42 % of the violence occurs in a directed line and 27 % exhibits an outward
star. This finding lends support for the notion that gang violence contributes to the
development of a pecking order with some groups subjugating others. Unable to
retaliate, the victimized group turns on another, perhaps weaker subset. While this
simple structure predominates, we see more reciprocal ties when only gang-on-
gang violence is considered.
Subset Violence Visualized. Figures 12.1 and 12.2 illustrate the patterns of
violence described above. This type of visualization is called a digraph because it
depicts who offends. Symbols are color coded to differentiate between Bloods
(dark grey circles), Crips (light grey circles), individuals (white squares), and other
gangs (very light grey squares). Symbol size varies by the number of attacks that
originated from the group (outdegree centrality). Arrowheads indicate the direction
of attack. To make the image easier to read, arrowheads are resized to reflect
the number of victimizations (similar to the lines). Grey lines with a label of “r”
illustrate channels of reciprocated violence. The looping lines indicate reflexive ties.
Reflexive ties show intra-subset conflict.
Figure 12.1 presents the main component and Fig. 12.2 depicts the 42 smaller
components. The main component is the largest interconnected group where every
Fig. 12.1 Main component illustrating subset-to-subset violence. Arrowheads note the direction
of attack and line thickness indicates the number of victim/offender dyads. Symbol size varies by
outdegree centrality and grey ties illustrate reciprocal and reflexive violence
Fig. 12.2 Subset violence among smaller components. Arrowheads note the direction of attack
and line thickness indicates the number of victim/offender dyads. Symbol size varies by outdegree
centrality and grey ties illustrate reciprocal and reflexive violence
180 J. Randle and G. Bichler
ATHENS INGLEWOOD
LYNWOOD
CARSON
LOS ANGELES
ANTELOPE VALLEY
PASADENA
HAWTHORNE
Fig. 12.3 Gang subset conflict among cities. Symbol size denotes outdegree centrality; line width
shows the number of offender/victim dyads, and arrowheads indicate where violence was exported
to (direction of attack)
Precise geographic information was not available for all gang subsets included in
this study. Consequently, subsets were aggregated to the city in which their primary
turf was located. Figure 12.3 illustrates this aggregation of violence using similar
techniques as the prior figures: symbol size and line width vary to reflect the number
of victimizations; arrowheads designate the direction in which the violence flows;
double-headed arrows identify reciprocated attacks; loops indicate internal conflict;
and, straight lines depict exported violence.
The City of Los Angeles is a clear focal point for gang-related violence in the
county. While LA exports violence to several cities, gangs from other cities do
victimize people from LA. Cities with long-standing, entrenched gang activity—
Inglewood, Long Beach, and Compton—are also involved in a high level of vio-
lence. Reciprocal ties exist between LA and Inglewood and LA and Long Beach.
Hawthorne, Santa Monica and Gardena are isolated (not connected to the main
component) because cases involving subsets located in these cities concerned non-
gang affiliated people during the study period. These patterns reflect
prior neighborhood-level research by Tita and colleagues (e.g., Tita & Radil, 2011)
showing that conflict between groups is not strictly a matter of turf proximity—Los
Angeles borders Inglewood but not Compton or Long Beach.
182 J. Randle and G. Bichler
Gang Injunctions
Injunctions are often used in California to suppress street gang violence. These
court orders are behavioral prohibitions that are lodged against a gang. Typically,
the stipulations prohibit gang members and their associates from participating in
specified activities within designated areas. The first gang injunction was
imposed in 1987 in the City of Los Angeles against the Playboy Gangster Crips.
Currently, there are more than 40 permanent injunctions against 72 gangs in the
city of Los Angeles alone. Arguments against the use of injunctions posit that
these civil restrictions are served in a manner that assumes guilt prior to provid-
ing proof, while arguments in support of injunctions suggest that they restrict
public association among gang members that intimidates other community
members and engenders further criminal activity (Felson, 2006).
Permanent gang injunctions target 17 Blood and Crip gang subsets in the City of
Los Angeles (City Attorney of Los Angeles, 2013). Table 12.7 lists 13 of these
subsets that appeared in the observed networks. We report the percentage of victim-
izations included in this study that occurred prior to and after the filing of the injunc-
tion. Groups ranked in our list of the top five most aggressive subsets are noted. This
ad hoc analysis raises questions about the influence of gang injunctions.
No clear pattern exists. The permanent injunction against the Black P-Stone
Bloods, one of the groups observed to victimize the most, may have reduced their use
of extreme violence following the court order: we find that 76 % of the victimizations
we examined took place before the gang injunction was filed and only 24 % occurred
after. However, with enhanced penalties for gang activity and facing the ban against
congregating, the group may have simply incorporated additional sub-subsets to avoid
crime prevention efforts. Franchising or fracturing to extend territory is not uncom-
mon. For instance, the East Coast Crips have 11 sub-subsets located in four different
cities, the Neighborhood Crips have at least 5, and the Hoover Crips have 8 sub-sub-
sets in the City of Los Angeles. It is also plausible that injunctions cause groups to
reinvent themselves with new or modified names to avoid crime control efforts.
Nonetheless, the same cannot be said for the Rollin 60s Neighborhood Crips—the
Crips group with the highest record of observed violence. We find that 3 % of their
observed attacks occurred prior to the gang injunction and 97 % after the injunction.
Arguably the number of events may have increased after the gang injunction, not
because the group became more violent, rather, officers may have become more
focused on the criminal activities of this gang. In turn, the increased attention from
law enforcement would inevitably generate more cases for the prosecutor’s office.
all of their time in a single set of places, and with widespread vehicle access and an
extensive freeway system, the mobility potential in Southern California is excep-
tional. Another factor to consider is serving time in prison. Large, regional facilities
offer economies of scale, but they also bring people together from different com-
munities who might not have met otherwise. When released, these individuals
return to their home neighborhoods, and their newly extended social network may
help them to break earlier geographic constraints. Thus, social networks, and the
origin of the conflicts they produce, may transcend community borders.
In light of the results of this study, and for the reasons argued above, it would
appear that the injunction policy in Los Angeles should be revisited. Five directives
accrue from this research.
1. Network analysis should be included in the investigatory process to identify criti-
cal aspects of behavioral prohibitions. Emphasis should be placed on identifying
internal conflict and prohibitions enacted to quell said conflicts. Injunctions should
include rivals, such as other factions or subsets of the same gang, as well as allies.
2. Target the most active groups—both in terms of attacks on citizens with no
known gang affiliation and gang-on-gang violence.
3. The network observed in this study suggests that local hierarchies are predomi-
nant in the structure of extreme violence, mostly within the same gang, between
subsets. Targeting the most dominant groups is critical as they originate a greater
proportion of violence and fuel the process of contagion.
4. Social structures are dynamic. Groups reinvent themselves, they split and expand, and
the primary players change. Thus, permanent injunctions must be regularly amended.
5. Generating collaborative injunctions, that interlink several jurisdictions, will
provide greater effectiveness when the underlying social network of gang con-
flict is used as the basis for forming cooperative agreements among criminal
justice agencies. Successful regional efforts do not necessarily need the partici-
pation of adjacent communities—the social proximity of gang activity is more
important than spatial proximity.
Limitations
This study is not without its limitations. First, we focused on felonious vio-
lence resulting more often in extensive court action (appeals). Berg (2012) argues
that some characteristics of gang-related violence are the same in all jurisdictions:
(1) they tend to involve firearms, (2) occur in public places, (3) victimize males
between 15 and 19, and (4) often revolve around retaliation (2012). The last point is
of interest. Retaliation for an injustice does not mean that the same level violence,
if any violence at all, is reciprocated. Retaliation can take many forms. Using only
extreme instances of violence—assault with a deadly weapon, attempted homicide
and homicide—excludes a wide range of behavior that, if included, would better
capture the structure of subset conflict. It follows that future investigations of gang
violence should include a range of offending behavior.
12 Uncovering the Social Pecking Order in Gang Violence 185
Second, conflict is dynamic and aggregate patterns are the outcome of individual
posturing and competition for control of the group and to gain a better position
within the network of subsets. McCuish et al. (2015) found that by studying a single
group over time, they were able to document how engaging in violence, within and
external to the group, elevated the career trajectory of some gang members.
Interpreted in light of our findings, this suggests that any effort to study gang vio-
lence, should consider the trajectory of conflict. Evidence about the group’s net-
work, allies, affiliates, and rivals is time sensitive, and thus, dynamic network
analysis is needed to understand the trajectory of the group’s structure. Several stud-
ies by Papachristos and colleagues illustrate this point (e.g., Papachristos, 2009;
Papachristos et al., 2013, 2015). On a related note, our study used a time window
spanning 9 years. Subsequent investigations of the rivalry between the Bloods and
Crips could employ a number of narrow intervals to improve temporal sensitivity.
Conclusion
Network analysis provides a series of theoretically derived tools that can significantly
strengthen our understanding of criminal behavior so as to improve the effectiveness
of our crime prevention efforts. Most prosecuted cases of gang violence in Los Angeles
County were observed to involve intra-gang rivalries and gang attacks on individuals
with no known gang involvement. By revisiting a historic and widely accepted rivalry
between the Bloods and the Crips, this study demonstrated that the actual social struc-
ture of gang violence does not fully conform to our preconceptions.
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186 J. Randle and G. Bichler
Introduction
In recent years, social network analysis has been amply used to develop social stud-
ies, especially those aimed at understanding covert networks. These types of net-
works are formed by players with broadly shared incentives to conceal their
activities and connections, and to keep at least some of them away from the public
eye (Robins, 2009). The lack of information about the different components of these
networks and their internal workings makes it harder to investigate and dismantle
them. In this regard, SNA, initially devised to study social groups, structures and
dynamics (Moreno, 1953), has proven to be a very useful tool to identify or predict
network structures and their components, to identify their weak points and to design
prevention strategies which are more successful, efficient and tailored to the specific
internal structure of each network. This is why it has been mainly used for juvenile
gangs (McGloin, 2005; Xu & Chen, 2008), criminal organisations (Bruinsma &
Bernasco, 2004; Kleemans & Van De Bunt, 2003; Morselli, 2009; Morselli &
Giguère, 2006; Morselli & Roy, 2008; Natarajan, 2006) and terrorist groups (Krebs,
2001; Carley, 2003). Most authors agree that it is a promising tool for investigation,
criminal intelligence and the study of criminal networks (Sparrow, 1991; Krebs,
2001; Morselli, 2009, Bright, Greenhill, Reynolds, Ritter, & Morselli, 2014b).
In relation to organised crime, apart from the traditional mafia organisations that
can still maintain hierarchical structures (Calderoni, 2012; De La Corte & Giménez-
Salinas Framis, 2010; Varese, 2013), most studies on non-mafia-type organisations
have revealed that their structures are more segmented, they are normally very flex-
ible and resistant (Benson & Decker, 2010), they have limited functional hierarchy
and they are able to reorganise rapidly (Ronfeldt & Arquilla, 2001; Williams, 2001;
Kleemans & Van De Bunt, 2003; Bruinsma & Bernasco, 2004; Morselli, 2009).
These types of networks especially include those dedicated to drug trafficking
(Adeler, 1993; Desroches, 1999; Gimenez-Salinas, 2014; Natarajan, 2000, 2006;
Zaitch, 2002). This is why the effectiveness and applicability of SNA to study these
criminal networks are important.
SNA does not only provide a graphical representation of the networks, but also
allows us to analyse their structure to support and expedite police investigations
(Krebs, 2001). Specifically, it helps detect subgroups within a network, uncover their
patterns of interaction and identify their key members. Although this can also be
done using other tools or methods, SNA brings to light aspects that are not easy to
detect at first sight (Morselli & Roy, 2008). Conversely, SNA enables police or any
intelligence analyst to identify the most central actors in the network in relational
terms (Schwartz & Rouselle, 2009). The police can thus monitor them and act in the
most effective way to weaken the network and its human and material resources. But
its value for investigators does not end here, as proven by Van der Hulst (2009). SNA
addresses seven dimensions that are valuable for investigations: scenario building,
risk analysis and threat assessments, hypothesis testing, network destabilisation and
identification of code names, matching roles and substitutes, support decisions and
deployment of intelligence assets, and evidence for prosecution.
Criminal networks have traditionally been analysed within a static dimension (at
a single point in time) but a dynamic perspective may also be valuable for preven-
tion purposes. Although some empirical approaches have been used to explore the
dynamics of networks, this area still requires further empirical research (Bright &
Delaney, 2013). Criminal networks are social groups subjected to internal and exter-
nal pressures, mainly because the exchange of illicit commodities requires covert
action. The alignment of actors in networks can change when new members join,
members are detained, due to expert requirements (Williams, 2001), or because of
changes caused by external pressures due to geographical expansion, market-driven
strategies, etc. The dynamic perspective of networks is extremely useful for preven-
tion and intelligence because, apart from better understanding internal network
structures, knowing how a network is growing or evolving over time and how it
responds to internal or external challenges are crucial to design effective strategies
to minimise its efficiency, or to test theoretical hypothesis about network flexibility
or responsiveness (Bright & Delaney, 2013).
Studies on dynamics in criminal networks can be classified as three approaches:
descriptive techniques to detect structural changes in social networks by comparing
structural properties over time; statistical approaches to detect, describe and explain
the changes; and simulation methods that rely on multi-agent technology to analyse
network dynamics. In this regard, Carley, Lee, and Krackhardt (2003) used a simula-
tion method to analyse the evolution of terrorist groups. Bright and Delaney (2013)
used a fourth visualisation method through which structural changes can be detected
by network maps. Further studies on network evolution and dynamics will provide
new insights into network continuity and ways to force network discontinuance.
This chapter analyses the value of SNA to investigate these networks. Using a
cocaine trafficking network investigated and dismantled in Spain several years ago
13 Static and Dynamic Approaches of a Drug Trafficking Network 189
as a sample, our analysis is twofold: from a static perspective, we focus on one level
of the organisation, for which we will identify its structure and main players; and
from an individual perspective, we analyse certain individual attributes of members
of the group and link them to their structural role. Then, we highlight the qualities
of SNA as a predictive tool within a dynamic view of the network. We use a descrip-
tive approach to explain the evolution of a network during the investigation. This
type of longitudinal analysis reveals how this dynamic approach is promising to
identify central actors early and prioritise initiatives to neutralise and dismantle
criminal networks.
Methodology
This study would not have been possible without the collaboration of the judicial
police unit of the Spanish Guardia Civil, which gave us access to the investigation
of a drug trafficking group in Spain.1 The network used as a sample for our analysis
is a cocaine trafficking network that was uncovered in Madrid (Spain). This group
brought Colombian cocaine to Spain through Uruguay or Brazil, to then adulterate
and distribute it in Madrid. It is a mid- or intermediate-level group (Adeler, 1993;
Natarajan & Belanger, 1998; Reuter & Haaga, 1989) between the Colombian
wholesalers and the small retailers in Madrid. It is a typical cocaine trafficking
organisation operating in Spain.
We collected quantitative and qualitative information about the drug trafficking
network investigated between 2006 and 2009 using three specifically designed
spreadsheets. One for data regarding the criminal network, another for members of
the criminal group and the third for relations and contacts for SNA purposes. The
spreadsheets are described further below.
(a) Data on criminal organisations: This spreadsheet included 76 variables, which
were divided into four main dimensions: (a) characteristics of the criminal
organisation (b) details of the illicit market and (c) instrumental or transverse
activities carried out. The variables collected are shown in the table below
(Table 13.1).
(b) Data on members: This spreadsheet was prepared to collect information about
members, including the following variables: age, sex, nationality, level of
education, family status, job situation, legal or illegal residency status (for for-
eigners), nationality, role in the organisation and police record.
(c) Data on contacts between members: This spreadsheet was prepared to collect
information about the number of contacts between network members. Contacts
were selected from two main sources of information: meetings corroborated by
1
Spanish police reports include ample data of each investigation and the characteristics of each
organisation and its members. In particular, each police report contains the techniques used by the
agents in the criminal investigation: entry and search, telecommunications interception, asset sei-
zure, photographic reconnaissance, interrogation, shadowing, etc. During the data collecting and
analyses process, the identity of each subject under investigation was anonymous, thus their right
to privacy was safeguarded.
190 A.G.-S. Framis and S.F. Regadera
the police during the investigation and the telephone contacts in the police files
(wiretaps). These contacts were recorded in a template which stated when they
took place, who the caller and the person receiving the call were and the dura-
tion of the call. The UCINET 62 software was used to carry out SNA.
Data from police investigations is difficult to come by and is a valuable source of
information to know more about covert networks. In addition, wiretaps are frequently
used to carry out SNA (Berlusconi, 2013; Natarajan, 2000; Varese, 2013) and can
supplement ethnographic research while posing no risk to the researcher. However,
police data also have major limitations as repeatedly referred to in literature: (a) data
from police investigations are incomplete and biased by the investigation and the
actions of the investigators (Krebs, 2002 & Sparrow, 1991); (b) the barriers between
the legal and illicit activities of the actors who are considered members makes it dif-
ficult to identify the members who are permanently linked to the network (Xu &
Chen, 2005) and (c) concealed networks tend to be dynamic and this fact is not
apparent from the information collected, which generally reflects static data and
realities (Bright & Delaney, 2013). Therefore, we can use the results of this investiga-
tion to exemplify the potential of static and dynamic analyses of criminal networks,
notwithstanding the fact that the initial information about these covert networks does
not accurately reflect reality but rather provides the closest approach to it.
2
Borgatti, S.P., Evertt, M. G. & Freeeman, L.C. (2002).
13 Static and Dynamic Approaches of a Drug Trafficking Network 191
Results
We now analyse the data from the investigation of the cocaine trafficking network in
Spain from a static and a more dynamic perspective. The detailed snapshot of the
network using SNA provides an insight into the network to uncover dynamics and
relationships that are not found using traditional approaches of study of criminal
organisations based on hierarchical structures (Gimenez-Salinas et al., 2012; Morselli,
2009). This type of static analysis is useful insofar as we have complete information
about the network, and its value increases proportionally the more information we
have. However, for the purpose of criminal investigation it is more useful to have
predictive tools to allow us to steer the investigation towards more relevant and vul-
nerable points for the network and to devise ways to neutralise it. Therefore, we will
show how a dynamic analysis of the network offers predictive advantages in criminal
investigation and in the analysis of intelligence. We now analyse the static approach.
structural perspective, there are two types of networks: exponential and scale
free networks (Albert, Jeong, & Barabasi, 1999). Exponential networks are structur-
ally homogenous, with most nodes having approximately the same number of links
(not many). On the other hand, scale-free networks are inhomogeneous, most nodes
having proportionately few links and a minority having a large number of links
(hubs). These structures have a significant impact on resilience. Scale-free networks
are much more vulnerable and less resistant because the network can be dismantled
by removing well-connected nodes (hubs) (Bright, Greenhill, & Levenkova, 2014a).
In the case of exponential networks, many more nodes need to be removed for the
same result. In other words, removing nodes with few connections has little impact
on the general structure.
When SNA was carried out on our drug trafficking network, we found a centralisa-
tion of 6.4 % and a density score of 15 %, with a standard deviation of 1.58.3
Comparing this to networks with a higher (Barnes, 1972) (80 %) or lower (Natarajan,
2006) (12.3 %) density, shows that it is not a dense network. In terms of centralisation,
it is not very centralised but this could be because the network has three subgroups.
Three nodes centralise most of the contacts (hubs). As Fig. 13.1 shows, JPPM, SNRM
and JJTE, who according to the investigation are the leaders of the network’s three
subgroups,4 comprise most of the contacts. In this case, if they are detained, most of the
network’s activity is neutralised because of contact centralisation. Apart from these
actors, the two leaders of the wholesale and importer group (SNRM and JPPM) are the
most central actors in terms of contacts and centralise most of the network’s contacts,
while the leader of the cocaine retail group (JJTE) comes a distant third. Therefore, the
network would be more efficiently disrupted by removing SNRM or JPPM.
If we analyse the core of the overall network5 and its peripheral members, we
see that the core is formed by 11 members (PCCP, JPPM, ELM, SNRM, HAMS,
WGV, CPGT, HPM, JDD, ARG and FR) of a total of 27 subjects investigated,
which means that 40.7 % of the members are in general strongly related within the
structure and have a similar relationship pattern coordinating tasks. The following
table provides general information about the actors of the network’s core, which is
comprised by seven members of the importer group (PCCP, JPPM, HPM, ARG,
FR, ELM and JDD) and four of the wholesaler groups in Spain (SNRM, HAMS,
WGV and CPGT).
Table 13.2 provides a description of the core and peripheral actors and their sex,
age, nationality and role. Apart from the main operational activity of the group
3
These measures are not the same as those provided in Gimenez-Salinas (2014) because the mem-
bers included in both networks are different. This article only includes the members that collabo-
rate with the organisation on a permanent basis.
4
The police reports show that JPPM is the retail group leader, SNRM is the wholesaler group
leader and JPPM is the importer group leader.
5
The method used is a core peripheral analysis that predicts the degree of coreness or closeness to
each actor’s core. This method exposes two types of nodes, namely a cohesive subgraph (the core)
in which actors are connected to each other in some maximal sense, and a class of player that is
loosely connected to the cohesive subgraph by a lack of maximal cohesion with the core (Borgatti
& Evertt, <CitationRef CitationID=”CR12” >1999</Citation Ref>). Actors in the core can coordi-
nate their actions and those in the periphery cannot.
13 Static and Dynamic Approaches of a Drug Trafficking Network 193
involved in the drug trafficking market (importer, wholesaler and retailer), the role of
all the actors in the organisation according to their main task has also been identified.
Their role in the groups has been divided into three categories: leadership, coordina-
tion and operation.6 As we can see, the police files (i.e. the description in the reports)
reveal that most of the core members carry out coordination tasks while the periph-
eral members mainly carry out operational and collaboration tasks. Exceptionally,
JJTE, the leader of the cocaine retailer group, appears as a peripheral member.
6
This category was created after checking the police files and comparing the information in them with
the information about their role in the organisation. Leadership includes group leaders according to
police interpretation and role information; coordination includes secondary positions in the organisa-
tion and management roles; and operation includes all other roles: transportation, debt collection, etc.
194 A.G.-S. Framis and S.F. Regadera
Figure 13.1 is provided in full for a complete picture of the network, which
shows subgroups of a network and the contacts of each of its actors in different
colours. As the table has been prepared using Mode 1 matrices with valued data, the
lines are thicker when the actors have been in contact more than once. As we had
access to the frequency of meetings between the actors and to telephone records, we
opted to use valued data matrices to provide the most complete sample of the
communications.
JV OS FRC
RB JJTE
ARG
JEAB JDD
LIRP
RAJH
JG HAMS FR
SNRM
JPPM
PCCP
CPGT
HPM
ERC JB
GYPMG ELM
VR JHLM
WGV JO JE
Apart from the general structure, SNA can be used to identify the most strategic
nodes of a network in terms of power or brokerage position (Morselli, 2010). The
best connected actors are those that play a central or intermediary role in the rela-
tionship with the other the actors; therefore, if they are identified early, investigators
or analysts can manage the surveillance and detection resources in a more precise,
efficient and effective way.
The most common measures used to identify the important players in a network
are centrality and intermediation (betweenness), but eigenvector centrality and
closeness centrality can also be measured using SNA. These measures work as fol-
lows: (a) Degree centrality measures the number of direct contacts surrounding a
node, which is usually associated with the leader of the group. (b) Betweenness
centrality measures the significance of a players’ intermediation in a network (how
often a node appears in the shortest route connecting two other nodes) (Sparrow,
1991). This position is also called Broker (Morselli, 2009). (c) Closeness centrality
measures how many steps on average it takes for an individual to reach everyone
else in the network. (d) Eigenvector centrality measures the extent to which actors
are connected to other well-connected actors.
Table 13.3 provides information about the actors in the network and the above-
mentioned measures. As we can see, JPPM has highest degree of centrality and
betweenness in the network. He is the leader of the cocaine importing group from
13 Static and Dynamic Approaches of a Drug Trafficking Network 195
Figure 13.2 shows these measures in a graph; the subject with the highest degree
of centrality (JPPM) is represented with a circle and the subject with the highest
degree of intermediation (SNRM) is represented with a triangle.
JV
RB OS
FRC
ARG
RAJH JEAB
JJTE
JDD
JG
LIRP
HAMS
FR
SNRM JPPM
PCCP
JB HPM
CPGT
ELM
ERC
JHLM
YPMG
JE
JO
VR
WGV
Individual Attributes
In order to fully understand covert networks, we should not only focus on the organ-
isational side of things; further information about the individual characteristics,
attributes and motivations of actors is also very important (Robins, 2009) and can be
used to suppress and disrupt networks. Schwartz and Rouselle (2009) recommend
using individual attributes and link weights to develop law enforcement intervention
and intelligence priorities. Bright, Greenhill and Levenkova (2014a) state that to
target and dismantle criminal networks more effectively, law enforcement should
consider node-level features, such as the roles played by individuals in the network
in addition to centrality scores.
The individual factors that contextualise the network are manifold, but the
following are the main ones:
– Socio-demographic characteristics such as sex, age, nationality and marital
status.
– Resources: Capacity, resources or skills (Natarajan, 2006; Bright & Delaney,
2013), possessing information, social capital (Schwartz & Rouselle, 2009),
experience as positive aspects and weaknesses, limitations or shortcomings as
negative aspects.
13 Static and Dynamic Approaches of a Drug Trafficking Network 197
JV
RB OS
FRC
RAJH ARG
JEAB
JJTE JDD
JG LIRP
HAMS
FR
SNRM JPPM
PCCP
JB HPM
CPGT
ELM
ERC
JHLM
YPMG
JE
JO
VR
WGV
Men Women
This chapter has analysed two types of characteristics which relate to the individu-
als that make up a network: their position in the network which depends on the
global volume of contacts and their personal attributes, as a means of supplementing
information about each subject. Taking a step further we can also combine both sets
of information to focus on the network’s inside knowledge. For instance, we may
want to know whether or not the most important actors in the network have legiti-
mate jobs (Morselli, 2009) apart from their involvement in organised crime, or if
they are mainly engaged in illicit activities or, on the contrary, if the main players
have a longer or shorter police record than other members of the network. We will
now illustrate this using our network and comparing the roles of the actors in the
network with the highest degree of centrality. This graph was published in another
article (Gimenez-Salinas, 2014) to prove that the traditional vision of roles or of
higher hierarchical positions does not always coincide with the position of the actors
in the network, taking into account the ties between them through the ARS. In our
network, represented in Fig. 13.4, there seems to be no difference between a hierar-
chical vision and that provided by SNA because the leaders, classed as such accord-
ing to the information in the investigation, have the highest degree of centrality in
the network. However, the article did reveal other organisations in which actors that
were coordinators, at a secondary hierarchical level, had a higher degree of central-
ity, even though their position of power with regard to their contacts was much
higher than that of the leaders.
JDD
FR
JV
HAMS
JJTE
RS
PCCP
YPMG
HPM
RAJH SNRM
WGV
ELM
JG
VR A
EDRS
CPGT
JE
JEAB
JO GA
Fig. 13.4 Degree of centrality of the actors and roles in the organisation. Source: (Gimenez-
Salinas, 2014)
13 Static and Dynamic Approaches of a Drug Trafficking Network 199
Thus far our analysis has been transverse, providing a static picture of our network
within a specific period of time. But this represents a fictitious reality as we are deal-
ing with live social systems, which are changing and dynamic over time. Criminal
organisations, understood as social networks, evolve over time, at least in three
ways (a) they are stable when they retain the same structural characteristics and the
same important players within a period of time; (b) they are changing when their
form and initial configuration evolve internally; and (c) they change and evolve as a
result of an exogenous factor that threatens their initial form and configuration (e.g.
police arrests) (Morselli & Petit, 2007).
In the field of criminal organisations, it is harder to discern the evolution of net-
works because it is difficult to access information in real time. However, it is essen-
tial to grasp the networks from their evolutionary dimension to find out how they
change over time and how they react to external changes such as police arrests,
changes to illicit markets or financial supervision of the their economic resources
(Bright & Delaney, 2013).
As we cannot always have access to information to know the temporal development
of the network, with a view to preventing and improving intelligence related to these
organisations, all efforts should focus on being able to predict and act early with the
least possible information. To this end, dynamic network analysis is useful as a way of
anticipating and identifying the weaknesses of important players whose removal from
the organisation will diminish its efficiency in the future. SNA allows us to carry out
this dynamic analysis even though there are other programmes that may be more effi-
cient in this respect, such as those linked to Dynamic Network Analysis: DNA (Carley,
2003) or Simulation Investigation for Empirical Network Analysis (SIENA).
We will carry out a simple analysis to examine the evolution of the cocaine traf-
ficking network, taking into account the data obtained in the two-year criminal
investigation. The static analysis carried out up until this point has given us some
insight into the network as a whole, but we have to wait until the end of the investi-
gation to reach conclusions about the network. So, how useful then is SNA as a
predictive or anticipation tool? If SNA only works to know more about the internal
workings of organisations once they have been dismantled, we cannot use it to
anticipate or devise early ways of taking them down and dismantling them. In other
words, we cannot use it as a preventive tool but rather just to give us more insight
into organisations. Therefore, the static perspective of the network needs to be
supplemented with a dynamic approach to appreciate how it changes over time,
detect the most relevant players in the network early to prioritise the efforts to iden-
tify and neutralise the members with the greatest impact on the network’s survival
and potential (Carley, 2003).
We will illustrate this form of dynamic analysis using the abovementioned
drug trafficking network. The information provided up until this point is the com-
plete set of information about the network after the investigation. We will now
200 A.G.-S. Framis and S.F. Regadera
divide the period of police investigation into four phases (times) and we will
analyse the network’s evolution with the information about contacts (wiretaps
and meetings) between actors that was available at the end of each phase of the
police investigation. This process will enable us to know which players were the
most relevant at each of the stages and check whether, before the investigation
ended, it was possible to identify the key (central) members of the network. First
of all, we will provide the network’s structure measures over the four phases of
the investigation and then we will analyse the key actors in terms of degree and
betweenness over time.
Table 13.4 provides general measures regarding the network in each of the
four phases of the investigation. Centralisation increases over time, as average
degree over the two-year period. On the contrary, density increases except at the
final stage.
Table 13.4 Descriptive data of network structure in the four phases of the investigation
Network structure Time 1 (n = 7) Time 2 (n = 16) Time 3 (n = 17) Time 4 (n = 27)
Centralisation 4.3 % 3.6 % 5.2 % 6.4 %
Average degree 0.885 (Nrm. 1.769 (Nrm. 3.370 7.849
0.248) 0.347) (Nrm. 0.318) (Nrm. 0.444)
Density 17 % 34 % 63 % 15 %
Figures 13.5, 13.6 and 13.7 show the different phases of the investigation. The
investigation lasted two years and we have divided the investigation into four phases
of six months each. To provide a better understanding of the evolution of each
actor’s centrality measures (degree and betweenness) during the investigation,
Tables 13.5 and 13.6 provide a summary.
Figure 13.5 shows how the investigation started with the surveillance of the mem-
bers of the importer group from Colombia (highlighted in yellow). The first contact
with the wholesale group also occurred at this stage but on a secondary basis. This
group exposes, as tables number 5 and 6 show, JPPM (head of the importer group)
as the member with the highest degree of centrality and betweenness. This first
phase also exposes, although to a much lesser extent with respect to the rest of the
network, the only subject of the wholesale group that we later discover is the head
of the wholesale network in Spain (SNRM). Of the three most important leaders of
the groups, two of them have already appeared within six months of the start of the
investigation.
13 Static and Dynamic Approaches of a Drug Trafficking Network 201
ELM LIRP
JDD
JPPM
SNRM
HPM
JB
Fig. 13.5 Information about the network as at 6 months of the start of the investigation
Figure 13.6 below shows the contacts detected within the first year of the investiga-
tion. This chart already distinguishes the two different subgroups; the wholesale
subgroup in Spain is complete and the importer network has not been completely
identified. The players with the highest degree of centrality are JPPM (head of the
importer group), ELM (one of the main coordinators of the Importer group) and
SNRM (head of the wholesale group, who emerges with a lesser degree of centrality
and intermediation (see tables 13.5 and 13.6). A contact of the third subgroup also
appears at this stage, the retailer and, in reality, the leader of the group. For the sec-
ond time consecutively, the first contact of the group is in fact the leader.
HAMS JB LIRP
SNRM
HPM
JDD
Fig. 13.6 Information about the network as at 12 months of the start of the investigation
Figure 13.7 shows the investigation after 18 months. The chart clearly shows the main
players and almost all the groups in full. According to the centrality and intermedia-
tion measures, the main players begin to appear at this stage (JPPM, head of the
wholesale group; SNRM, head of the importer group). JDD appears in third place,
when in the final graph he drops down to fifth place and carries out an operative-type
role in the network. Then come ELM and HPM, who do carry out coordination tasks.
202 A.G.-S. Framis and S.F. Regadera
JJTE
JB
LIRP
JHLM
SNRM
FRC JDD HPM
JPPM
OS
YPMG
WGV CPGT
ELM
Fig. 13.7 Information about the network as at 18 months of the start of the investigation
The fourth and last phase of the investigation exposes the network in full as
shown at the start of this chapter (Fig. 13.8).
JV OS FRC
RB JJTE
ARG
JEAB JDD
LIRP
RAJH
JG HAMS
FR
SNRM JPPM
PCCP
CPGT
HPM
ERC JB
YPMG ELM
VR JHLM
WGV JO JE
Fig. 13.8 Information about the network as at 24 months of the start of the investigation
A dynamic analysis of the position of the actors reveals that, throughout the
investigation, the key players in the final network appear with high centrality and
intermediation measures from the start. Tables 13.5 and 13.6 show how JPPM
comes first in terms of centrality form the start, followed by ELM who is his
right-hand man and group coordinator. 18 months after the start of the investigation,
SNRM comes first as head of the wholesalers group. However, due to his capacity
to intermediate between the importers group and the retailers, he comes first in
terms of intermediation after one year and remains in that position until the
investigation concludes.
Table 13.5 Degree distribution among members investigated during each of the four phases of the investigation
Phase 1 (6 months) Phase 2 (12 months) Phase 3 (18 months) Phase 4 (24 months)
Rank ID Deg. Rank ID Deg. Rank ID Deg. Rank ID Deg.
1 JPPM 16.000 1 JPPM 21.000 1 JPPM 59.000 1 JPPM 119.000
2 ELM 13.000 2 ELM 19.000 2 SNRM 27.000 2 SNRM 96.000
3 JDD 6.000 3 SNRM 12.000 3 JDD 27.000 3 JDD 35.000
4 JB 5.000 4 JDD 10.000 4 ELM 19.000 4 HAMS 24.000
5 SNRM 3.000 5 HAMS 8.000 5 HPM 11.000 5 WGV 22.000
6 LIRP 2.000 6 JB 5.000 6 HAMS 6.000 6 HPM 22.000
7 HPM 1.000 7 JJTE 3.000 7 JB 5.000 7 ELM 21.000
8 JEAB 2.000 8 ARG 4.000 8 FR 12.000
9 YPMG 2.000 9 JEAB 2.000 9 PCCP 9.000
10 JHLM 2.000 10 LIRP 2.000 10 ARG 8.000
11 RB 2.000 11 CPGT 2.000 11 JEAB 6.000
12 CPGT 2.000 12 YPMG 2.000 12 CPGT 6.000
13 ERC 2.000 13 WGV 2.000 13 YPMG 6.000
13 Static and Dynamic Approaches of a Drug Trafficking Network
Phase 1 (6 months) Phase 2 (12 months) Phase 3 (18 months) Phase 4 (24 months)
Rank ID Deg. Rank ID Deg. Rank ID Deg. Rank ID Deg.
21 VR 2.000
22 JE 2.000
23 RB 1.000
24 JO 1.000
25 JV 1.000
26 FRC 1.000
27 ERAJH 1.000
A.G.-S. Framis and S.F. Regadera
Table 13.6 Degree distribution among members investigated during each of the four phases of the investigation
Time 1 (n = 7) (6 months) Time 2 (n = 16) (12 months) Time 3 (n = 17) (18 months) Time 4 (n = 27) (24 months)
Rank ID Betw. Rank ID Betw. Rank ID Betw. Rank ID Betw.
1 JPPM 0.588 1 SNRM 5.569 1 SNRM 7.039 1 SNRM 12.186
2 ELM 0.196 2 JPPM 1.863 2 JPPM 4.372 2 JPPM 9.772
3 JB 1.765 3 JDD 2.286 3 HAMS 3.343
4 HAMS 1.020 4 ELM 0.907 4 JJTE 2.640
5 ELM 0.843 5 JB 0.163 5 JDD 1.885
6 ELM 1.722
7 YPMG 1.024
8 CPGT 0.201
13 Static and Dynamic Approaches of a Drug Trafficking Network
9 JG 0.107
205
206 A.G.-S. Framis and S.F. Regadera
The example of the cocaine trafficking network analysed in this chapter has given
us an insight into some of the advantages of using SNA to find effective strategies
to dismantle and reduce group capacities. SNA is particularly suitable for flexible
and covert networks, where members do not have a fixed position or role and are
more difficult to arrest. SNA does not just offer a graphic representation but has
numerous other uses to improve the effectiveness of the arrests of members of crim-
inal networks and decrease their capacity over time.
A structural analysis of the group gives us an insight into the centralisation, den-
sity of contacts and whether the same network has different subgroups with a higher
density of contacts. This is extremely relevant to identify weaknesses and forms of
effective disruption. Our cocaine trafficking network clearly revealed the existence
of three subgroups which carried out importing, wholesale and retail activities. It is
debatable whether these groups are different but, given that cocaine distribution
constitutes a chain that goes from the countries of origin to its retail sale in the
destination countries, if we treat the small networks in a fragmented way, we are not
being entirely efficient; we need to see the network globally and identify its weak-
nesses or limitations to break the illicit market chain (Malm & Bichler, 2011). Thus,
by knowing the internal structure, the core-peripheral members in relational terms,
and which groups have a higher degree of contacts and the density of the subgroups,
we can more easily identify weaknesses to be targeted to dismantle the network. We
have seen that depending on the security priorities imposed on group suppression,
the network can be destabilised by first seeking out the main core or the broker
subgroup. In our case, the wholesaler subgroup is the powerful group because it
connects importers and retailers, so priorities are driven by these intermediary
groups (Gimenez-Salinas, 2014; Gimenez-Salinas et al., 2012; Natarajan, 2006). In
terms of key actors, JPPM and SNRM were the most central and broker actors, and
removing SNRM was essential due to his higher degree of betweenness.
SNA also enables an individual evaluation of the members of the network, which
provides further information about the network’s weaknesses. Knowing aspects
such as roles, economic, technical or material resources available, the personal
motivations or beliefs of the members etc. provides more qualitative information to
devise law enforcement strategies that are more efficient and specifically tailor-
made to the type of network at hand. We have used our case to show member distri-
bution by sex as an example of individual attributes. This distribution shows the
intermediation and connection roles that many women play in these criminal groups.
The role of women in these groups is gradually becoming more important, as
revealed by many investigations (Beare, 2010; Campbell, 2008; Caroll, 2002;
Fiandaca, 2007; Requena, De Juan, Gimenez-Salinas, & De La Corte, 2014), where
we can find women in management and coordination positions. Traditionally,
women have played a secondary role in terms of their visibility, but yet have an
increasingly significant role as efficient intermediaries and collaborators in tasks
13 Static and Dynamic Approaches of a Drug Trafficking Network 207
7
Snijders et al. (2008).
208 A.G.-S. Framis and S.F. Regadera
Acknowledgements We would like to thank the judicial police unit of the Spanish Guardia Civil
for giving us access to data. We are also very grateful to all those who reviewed this chapter for
their comments and valuable suggestions.
13 Static and Dynamic Approaches of a Drug Trafficking Network 209
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Part V
Agent-Based Modelling
Chapter 14
Formal Models of the Crime Event:
Agent-Based Modelling in Support
of Crime Prevention
Daniel Birks
Introduction
Agent-Based Models
The ABM is a type of computational model devised to aid in the analysis of com-
plex systems comprising autonomous heterogeneous entities that act and interact in
rich and non-linear ways (Bonabeau, 2002). Many real world systems are complex,
1
For the sake of brevity the acronym ABM is used to refer to both agent-based model(s) and agent-
based modelling.
D. Birks (*)
Griffith Criminology Institute, Griffith University,
176 Messines Ridge Road, Mt Gravatt, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
e-mail: d.birks@griffith.edu.au
but one of the most studied is human society. Harnessing significant advances in
computational capacity, the last three decades have seen a range of social sciences
explore and capitalise on the unique strengths of ABMs to better understand how
the action and interaction of individual members of the population translate into
observed societal outcomes (Hedström, 2005). This approach has been demon-
strated to be particularly useful where the intricacies of cause and effect exhibited
by complex social systems are difficult to formalise through written theory, lack
reliable individual level data to describe them, and are bereft of elegant analytical
solutions capable of estimating system behaviour at the individual level (Epstein,
1999).
In order to describe the agent-based analytical approach to human systems it is
useful to contrast it against more traditional solutions often applied within the social
sciences.2 Analysis of societal phenomena often proceeds via a top-down approach
(Epstein, 1999). This typically involves the observation of relationships between
aggregate level system properties (e.g. area level affluence and educational attain-
ment; residential mobility and crime rates), some statistical measure of fit between
these properties, and subsequent generalised inference about lower order interac-
tions between individual entities. An important limitation of such top-down
approaches is that they often struggle to adequately quantify the mechanisms by
which observed system properties are related. This can be particularly problematic
where an understanding of these mechanisms is desirable to facilitate some form of
intervention that aims to produce or disrupt particular outcomes.
The ABM seeks to provide a complementary approach to study societal phenom-
ena that operates from the bottom-up; exploring how individual action and interac-
tion influence aggregate system properties (Epstein & Axtell, 1996). ABMs are
used to simulate artificial worlds that mimic social systems at a manageable level of
complexity, providing an appropriate analogue to the system of interest, which is
easier to both manipulate and study than the system itself (Gilbert & Troitzsch,
2005). These worlds are populated with simulated decision makers commonly
referred to as agents. Agents are designed to perceive, reason and act based on cur-
rent theory or empirical evidence from the field of interest. By simulating these
actors, and their repeated actions and interactions with both one another and the
environment they inhabit, researchers gain insight into the aggregate properties that
result from particular individual level configurations. Thus, while the statistical
model measures fit between aggregate system properties, ABMs offer formalised,
abstracted models through which the emergence of system relations from individual
level action can be systematically explored (Epstein & Axtell, 1996; Hedström &
Swedberg, 1998).
ABMs can be used to support a broad range of significant research efforts
(Epstein, 2008). While acknowledging this diversity, here we discuss two distinct
but related applications of ABMs that may support crime prevention in important
2
This contrast simply serves description but should not imply competition between approaches.
Any social scientist worth his or her salt can clearly see the advantage of triangulating multiple
methods in the pursuit of better understanding the complexity of society.
14 Formal Models of the Crime Event: Agent-Based Modelling in Support of Crime… 217
ways; (1) in the development of models that explore the explanatory capacity of
mechanisms proposed by criminological theory; and (2) in predicting the likely
outcomes of manipulations to such mechanisms through intervention. Both these
approaches are now briefly summarised.
While explanatory and predictive ABMs are typically applied to address largely
distinct problems, they are both supported by a range of advantages that the ABM
confers on the analysis of complex social systems. These are now briefly
discussed.
First, ABM avoid assumptions about population homogeneity (Epstein & Axtell,
1996). Within an ABM each agent acts autonomously and can be created with its
own unique characteristics, preferences and behaviours. Thus, diverse populations
of decision makers can co-exist and be studied within a single model. This approach
is considerably more flexible than many traditional statistical or mathematical mod-
els where, for the sake of mathematical tractability, the characteristics of individuals
and their interaction are often assumed to remain constant across populations.
Second, as agents are situated in an explicit environment, ABMs permit the
explicit simulation of localised interactions. Agent decision-calculi can be devised
to incorporate both individual- and situation-specific information into decision-
making processes. This supports the simulation of bounded rationality, such that
agents can be devised to draw only on restricted information available at the time a
decision is made. This approach to modelling decision-making avoids unrealistic
assumptions often embedded in mathematical or statistical models that bestow
actors with access to complete information about the world in which they operate.
Third, ABMs are well suited to study changes in the longitudinal dynamics of
social systems (Gilbert & Troitzsch, 2005). ABMs simulate the progression of time
via discrete increments, often referred to as cycles. During each cycle agents act and
interact based upon their specified behaviours, which in turn, draw on agent’s local
circumstances and individual characteristics. Many thousands of these cycles may
occur as a simulation progresses. Thus, ABM is performed in a recursive fashion,
permitting the longitudinal examination of interconnected and interdependent sys-
tem elements over time. Such temporal dynamics are especially important for the
modelling non-equilibrium systems and phenomena such as tipping points, where
the accumulation of individual action over time can lead to rapid and significant
diversions in system behaviour (Grodzins, 1958).
Fourth, ABMs provide an intuitive platform for demonstrating complex concepts
to a broad audience. Models are specified through the conceptualization and for-
malisation of individual level behaviours. Specifying model constructs at this level
is considerably more accessible than complex mathematical abstractions (Bonabeau,
2002). This dictates that audiences need not be highly skilled in the field of ABM in
order to inform, interrogate and interpret models. And as a result, simulations can
be more easily supported by domain experts who often ask more pertinent questions
of models than those who are predominantly interested in developing them (Gilbert
& Troitzsch, 2005).
Fifth, ABMs offer researchers unrestricted powers of both observation and manip-
ulation. Within a given simulation all variables, at all scales of aggregation, can be
observed and analysed by the researcher. Moreover, researchers can systematically
220 D. Birks
manipulate all model configurations, for instance altering the decision-making rules
of an agent, or the environment in which such decisions are made. As a result of this
capacity ABMs permit a wealth of systematic simulated experiments to be carried
out3 free from constraints imposed on empirical experimentation. These properties
facilitate the creation of computational laboratories where researchers can construct
and carry out simulation experiments, holding a system configuration static while
systematically manipulating a single construct of interest (Epstein & Axtell, 1996;
Macy & Willer, 2002).
Given the minimal requirements of such experiments, thousands of simulation
experiments can be run at little cost, exploring the same mechanisms in a range of
circumstances, and at different spatial and temporal scales. In this way the robust-
ness of theoretical proposition can be explored. To illustrate, one might develop an
ABM that explored several distinct models of criminal decision-making, compar-
ing simulated crime generated by these models to observed distributions of crime,
and in turn, assessing which model best reproduces plausible outcomes. Given
such a behaviour, further experiments could be performed situating the same
mechanisms in varying environments, of varying sizes and configurations, and
over short and long time scales, further assessing generalisability across a range of
contexts.
Since the mid-2000s there has been burgeoning interest in the application of
ABM within the field of criminology and in particular environmental criminol-
ogy’s study of crime events and patterns (see Brantingham & Brantingham, 2004
for an important initial effort in this area). This interest fundamentally stems
from the way in which environmental criminologists conceptualise crime as the
outcome of numerous spatio-temporally situated interactions between boundedly
rational potential offenders, victims and guardians, and the environment they
inhabit (Birks, Townsley, & Stewart, 2012). This depiction sees crime events and
patterns as the emergent outcomes of a complex system (Birks, Townsley, &
Stewart, 2014). It is under this conceptualisation that scholars have recently
applied agent-based methods to model and better understand crime event interac-
tions and their likely influences on observed crime phenomena, addressing a
variety of research problems.
3
Note that ABM can be constructed to be either deterministic or probabilistic. In probabilistic
ABM the results of a single simulation offer restricted insight into the system of interest. Multiple
replications of the same probabilistic models are typically run to assess the range of outcomes that
result from a particular model configuration. Also note that the random number generators used in
ABM can be seeded (this process generates the same trace of random numbers when a simulation
is instantiated) in order to facilitate non-deterministic but reproducible model outcomes.
14 Formal Models of the Crime Event: Agent-Based Modelling in Support of Crime… 221
Ekblom and Pease (1995) suggest that standards are generally low. The most com-
mon types of evaluation being measures of crime pre- and post-intervention or
interrupted time series, in some cases with the use of a control area to account for
confounding effects.
Drawing on a range of theories from the field of environmental criminology,
situational approaches to crime prevention seek to reduce crime by reducing the
opportunities for crime (Clarke, 1980). Unlike much of traditional criminological
study, these approaches are predominantly concerned with crime events, suggesting
that the proximal mechanisms that influence observed crime events and patterns are
considerably more easy to both identify and manipulate than those distal causes that
influence criminal involvement over the life course (Cornish & Clarke, 1986).
Situational crime prevention calls for prevention strategies that are crime and prob-
lem specific (Clarke, 1995). Thus, optimal intervention design relies on the identifi-
cation and quantification of these proximal mechanisms involved in generating a
particular crime problem.
Currently, three core theoretical approaches often referred to as the opportunity
theories (Wortley & Mazerolle, 2008) underpin this study of crime events and pat-
terns; the routine activity approach (Cohen & Felson, 1979; Felson, 2008), rational
choice perspective (Clarke, 1980; Cornish & Clarke, 1986, 2008) and crime pattern
theory (Brantingham & Brantingham, 1978, 1981, 1993 2008). Collectively, these
theories provide depictions of the spatio-temporally situated processes by which
offenders find suitable targets in their environment, reason about them, and the role
that the dynamic environmental backcloth plays in influencing such interactions to
shape patterns of crime.
Diverse crime prevention efforts draw on the opportunity theories in the design
of interventions seeking to reduce victimisation. As discussed, the primary aim of
situational crime prevention is to remove or disrupt opportunities for crime by
manipulating the offender expected utility calculus set-out by the rational choice
perspective; increasing offender perceptions of risk and effort while minimising
perceptions of reward (Clarke, 1980). The field of Crime Prevention Through
Environmental Design similarly seeks to devise environmental morphologies that
influence and disrupt offender crime event decision-making with the hope of reduc-
ing crime (Jeffrey & Zahm, 1993). While such approaches have been aptly demon-
strated to be effective in reducing crime (Clarke, 1997), SCP interventions can still
result in divergent outcomes (Guerette & Bowers, 2009). Consequently, there is still
considerable work to be done in identifying those strategies most likely to be effec-
tive in varying contexts and in identifying new strategies aimed at reducing crime in
existing contexts.
To date, progress toward this goal has been encumbered by two key obstacles;
(1) a relative scarcity of reliable and representative micro-level data concerning
crime events, and (2) fundamental difficulties associated with undertaking con-
trolled experiments in the study of crime events. While the nature of these problems
are in no way unique to the study of criminological phenomena, their presence
ultimately restricts the testing, refinement and succession of opportunity based
accounts of crime.
14 Formal Models of the Crime Event: Agent-Based Modelling in Support of Crime… 223
To illustrate, both the routine activity approach and crime pattern theory describe
how spatio-temporal activity patterns of potential victims, offenders and guardians
influence the observed distribution of crime events. Our ability to collect representa-
tive data at the individual level proposed by these theories (i.e. the activities of
individuals) to provide an optimal test of their hypotheses is extremely limited.
Similarly, it is logistically infeasible to examine the internal mechanisms of offender
decision-making in situ and en masse, in pursuit of thorough tests of the rational
choice perspective. Furthermore, our ability to assess the influence of the ever-
changing environmental backcloth on both offenders and offending opportunities is
severely restricted by a lack of accurate micro level data, and our inability to sys-
tematically manipulate environmental contexts from which inferences concerning
the influence of certain environmental features might be drawn. As a result of these
problems, evaluations of individual level interventions are usually defined at the
area level, and from which data are unsuitable for testing the individual level mech-
anisms proposed by theory (Eck, 1995).
Further confounding these difficulties, theory depicts such mechanisms embed-
ded within or alongside one another. This interconnectedness dictates that even with
substantial insight into the offence process it is difficult to estimate the impacts of
individual mechanisms in order to best identify causal paths for optimal crime pre-
vention. Furthermore, such interconnectedness dictates that if a proposed mecha-
nism is erroneous or not adequately understood it is almost impossible to eliminate
as a potential explanation without quantifying the interactions that are occurring in
situ (Birks et al., 2012). Hence, even if the crime event is observed in all of its com-
plexity, and indeed those mechanisms proposed by theory are an accurate reflection
of reality, it is still difficult to disentangle the respective effects of each. As a result
of these problems a causal gap remains between observed intervention outcomes,
crime patterns, and proposed individual-level behaviours that interventions aim to
manipulate. This divide dictates that it is often difficult to accurately test theoretical
depictions of crime to the extent that would be desirable for tailored crime preven-
tion development (Birks et al., 2012).
In response to these difficulties, one potentially productive application of ABMs
is to provide a constraint free environment in which the explanatory capacity of
proposed crime event mechanisms can be systematically assessed (Birks & Elffers,
2014). In doing so, ABMs provides an instrument capable of exploring the afore-
mentioned divide between proposed crime event mechanisms and observed crime
events, in turn, supporting rigorous assessment of theories that inform crime pre-
vention intervention.
In pursuit of this goal, ABMs can be built to simulate populations of potential
offenders and victims whose behaviours are derived from mechanisms proposed by
the opportunity theories. For example, agents can be bestowed with the expected
utility calculus proposed by the rational choice perspective, or the spatially refer-
enced awareness space set out by crime pattern theory. Such models of offending
can then be validated by comparing crime generated by actors who behave accord-
ing to theory to a range of aggregate properties consistently observed in the empiri-
cal study of crime events. These include the observation that crime is both spatially
224 D. Birks
movement remains random but time away from home is specified by a series of
temporal constraints; in the spatio-temporal variant offenders are allocated routine
activity nodes, specified paths to those nodes, and a temporal schedule of activities.
A series of simulated experiments are then performed where the average time spent
away from home is manipulated and the resulting crime examined across all model
configurations. By comparing the simple model to the temporal and spatio-temporal
variants an appropriate counterfactual is established permitting the examination of
the effects of each configuration of hypothesised activity space. Results demon-
strate that several propositions of the opportunity theories concerning actor activi-
ties provide key explanatory capacity in understanding observed likelihood and
spatial distribution of crime events, and moreover that temporal and spatial con-
straints have differential effects on both the prevalence and distribution of crime
within the model.
Similarly, Wang, Liu, and Eck (2008) describe a simulation study of street rob-
bery underpinned by mechanisms of the routine activity approach and crime pattern
theory. Utilising a hybrid of ABM and cellular automata, the presented model situ-
ates agents within an environment drawn from the Cincinnati street network. Agents
represent three key entities: offenders, targets and places. Offender agents operate
under a number of theoretically derived behaviours that allow them to navigate their
environment, choose suitable targets and learn from past experience about suitable
crime places. Similarly, target agents are capable of traversing the environment and
adapting their behaviour to avoid locations where previous victimisation has
occurred. Place agents represent the locations at which crimes can occur and are
represented as cells on the modelled street network. Each place agent is associated
with a place manager designed to represent the crime controller described by Eck
(1994). The management effectiveness of a place is then reflected in a measure of a
place’s ability to control crime within it. Drawing on the routine activity approach,
when offender and target agents converge at a given place, offenders assess their
own motivation, the desirability of available targets, the capability of guardians
present and the management effectiveness of the current place in their decision to
offend. Using this model the authors initially demonstrate that the model produces
results congruent with those expected by the routine activity approach. Subsequently,
two simulated experiments are performed. The first demonstrates that bestowing
agents with temporally constrained routine activities generates hourly patterns of
offending similar to those observed in the empirical study of crime. The second
explores the impact of providing offender and potential victim agents with the abil-
ity to adapt to what is known about “good” crime places, and thus gravitate towards
or away from them respectively. Results of this experiment demonstrate that intro-
duction of the adaptation mechanism produces increases in levels of repeat victimi-
sation, and generates a distribution of crime across place agents that conforms to a
power curve congruent with that commonly observed in the empirical study of
crime (Spelman, 1995).
Brantingham et al. (2008) present an example application of their ABM platform
Mastermind that seeks to provide a formal modelling instrument for criminolo-
gists, policing agencies and city planners interested in the spatial and temporal
226 D. Birks
These studies provide key tests of the opportunity theory’s depiction of crime
that would be exceedingly difficult to undertake through traditional empirical
approaches. Importantly, their results provide confidence in the viability of proxi-
mal crime event mechanisms put forward by the opportunity theories and in doing
so support situational crime prevention efforts that seek to manipulate such mecha-
nisms to leverage reductions in crime. More generally they also provide a compel-
ling argument for the use of ABM in assessing the causal properties of crime event
mechanisms proposed by theory. Finally, they also deliver essential groundwork for
the incremental development of predictive models that seek to estimate how such
mechanisms might be best manipulated to disrupt crime events.
It is also important to note that while these brief examples deal solely with theo-
ries of environmental criminology in support of situational crime prevention, ABM
may support a wide range of theoretical, and subsequently applied, efforts within
many fields of criminological study. To illustrate such diversity, ABM might be
constructed to explore the evolution of illegal trade networks (Bichler & Birks,
2015), the spatial foraging of protected species and illegal poaching of them (Hill,
Johnson, & Borrion, 2013), the formation of organised criminal groups, the escala-
tion of arguments and the emergence of violent outcomes, and the impact of life
choices on criminal propensity, to name but a few.
The requirements of such agent-based investigations are simple: the presence of
proposed individual level mechanisms sufficiently explicit to be formalised, and
some known empirical regularities that such mechanisms purport to explain, and
against which the explanatory capacity of theory can be assessed. Here, I propose
that these requirements are the hallmark of all good theory irrespective of one’s
intention to implement an ABM. The application of ABM within criminology is
undoubtedly still in its infancy. Indeed, a considerable amount of foundational
research is required if criminologists are to harness the potential of ABM in increas-
ing our understanding of criminological phenomena, and subsequently in the design
of effective interventions aimed at reducing harm.
One potentially transformative application of ABMs within criminology is the
explicit simulation of crime prevention interventions (Groff & Birks, 2008). Once
appropriately validated explanatory models of crime are constructed, researchers
can introduce candidate crime prevention interventions into their simulated societ-
ies with the aim of assessing their likely impact on mechanisms of interest. In the
future, ABMs may be applied in this way to identify potential interventions that are
likely to produce the greatest reductions in crime while also minimising unintended
consequences. While such models cannot (and do not purport to) replace traditional
evaluation of implemented intervention, where resources are often limited, ABM
may permit prioritisation of interventions that are likely to be the most fruitful in
terms of crime reduction. In turn, allowing simulation studies to guide expensive
and resource intensive empirical investigation. While to date less research has been
carried out in this regard, several authors have begun to discuss and explore the pos-
sibilities of such predictive models for intervention prototyping (Bosse et al., 2010;
Bosse & Gerritsen, 2010; Elffers & Gerritsen, 2016; Groff & Birks, 2008; Malleson
& Brantingham, 2009; Melo et al., 2006).
228 D. Birks
understand and interpret. Moreover, such models risk over-fitting to specific contexts,
which, in turn, may limit the generalisability of model outcomes.
While the appropriate level of complexity associated with any given model is
clearly driven by its intended applications (Axtell & Epstein, 1994), ABM should
be built in an incremental fashion. In doing so, simple models precede more com-
plex ones, such that increasingly nuanced system components are incorporated
piece by piece, allowing them to be appropriately tested and their impact on model
behaviour systematically assessed (Townsley & Birks, 2008). In this way, step
changes in model complexity are planned, and trade-offs between complexity and
utility can be addressed in the context of research questions that guide model devel-
opment. Ultimately, such an approach follows the principle that underlies all model
development, not just ABM—to seek the most parsimonious model that remains
capable of explaining the widest variety of known system characteristics.
A further challenge facing the application of ABM within criminology relates
to their position within the field. Currently, ABM are applied relatively rarely by
criminologists in comparison to other analytical techniques. As a result, peer
understanding of ABM methods is not widespread. As ABM can be applied in a
vast array of contexts, for a range of purposes, and in substantively different
ways, methods of standardised model description will likely be increasingly use-
ful as the application of ABM grows within criminology. As such, the develop-
ment of standardised frameworks to describe ABMs and enable model
peer-review, replication, comparison and extension are of key importance. Such
practices have been shown to promote transparency, understanding and accep-
tance of ABM in other fields (e.g. Grimm et al., 2010). Thus, it is from the adop-
tion or modification of these established methods that the most productive efforts
will likely originate.
Finally, in disseminating ABM research, authors must acknowledge that model
outcomes are necessarily a function of assumptions derived in the development of a
model. Consequently, bold claims relating to the insights derived from models
should be appropriately tempered and supported by theoretical and empirical study.
Here, it is only through the triangulation of multiple complementary methods that
our understanding of what are undoubtedly complex social systems is best
supported.
Conclusion
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Chapter 15
Investigating Prevention by Simulation
Methods
Introduction
From the point of view of crime prevention, crime can be envisaged as unfolding
itself in two phases in time: anticipation, which happens before the crime is
actually being executed, and execution, which happens during the actual com-
mitment of the crime. What is happening in the aftermath of crime (detection,
prosecution) is interesting in itself for criminologists, but has little relevance
for prevention.
Prevention takes a different guise in the anticipatory and execution phase of
crime. In this chapter we introduce the term anticipatory prevention which
refers to attempts to prohibit the idea that the necessary conditions for a crime
to occur will simultaneously materialise. Those necessary conditions are,
according to the routine activity framework (Cohen & Felson, 1979), the co-
occurrence in time and space of a motivated offender and a suitable target, in
the absence of a capable guardian.
When a crime is actually happening, anticipatory prevention has failed, but
we still can envisage measures that attempt to deflect the seriousness or indeed
interrupt the course of the crime. For such action we coin the term mitigating
prevention.
In this chapter we look into simulation methods for investigating the effects of
prevention, and we treat this topic separately for anticipatory and mitigating pre-
vention, as we argue that anticipatory prevention requires agent based simulation
methods, while mitigating prevention should bank on simulation in the sense of
studying potential victims or guardians in an artificial (laboratory) situation.
Of late, we are enjoying the coming of age of agent based (ABM) simulation
(Epstein, 2006) as a research method in criminology (Brantingham & Brantingham,
2004). ABM-simulations build an artificial context in which artificial agents (reflect-
ing actors such as offenders, targets, guardians and others) iteratively “perform”
actions according to simple (sometimes deterministic, but often probabilistic) rules
that usually prescribe certain actions dependent on the context in which the agent is
located in space, relative to where other agents are.1 Recently some important steps
towards understanding the possible role of simulation studies in theory testing have
been made (Birks & Elffers, 2014; Birks, Townsley, & Stewart, 2012; Groff, 2007).
In that line of thinking, simulation is used for investigating which elements of a
theory are indispensable for producing—in an artificial context—regularities in
crime patterns, regularities that have been demonstrated empirically to have been
observed in real life. Such regularities are in this context often called “stylised
facts”. As such it is a theory development method. It investigates the structure of
explanatory theories, by demonstrating that some parts of a theory cannot be missed
in the sense that without them, established patterns in offending do not occur in the
artificial environment, while others may, at least in the artificial context, be superflu-
ous. Simulation is used, because analytical grasping the complex interactions
between large numbers of diverse agents defies human analytical shrewdness.
Notice, however, that although a particular theoretical construct may be capable of
generating some regularity, there may be other, non-modelled constructs that are
equally capable to do so. Likewise, the usefulness of simulation methods is, of
course, also bound to the theoretical paradigm in which it has been formulated. For
a more thorough discussion of these epistemological issues please refer to the litera-
ture cited above.
In between theory oriented use of simulation and practical application of ABM
simulation models, a number of development studies proposing simulation models
for certain crimes have been published (e.g. Bosse, Gerritsen, & Klein, 2010; Groff,
2008; Johnson, 2008; Liu, Wang, Eck, & Liang, 2005; Malleson, Evans, & Jenkins,
2009). Such models are indispensable for the next step, applying simulation to eval-
uate concrete measures.
In the present chapter, we look at the application of simulation methods as a
means for evaluation of preventive measures, in the line of Groff and Birks (2008).
Within an ABM-framework and using the routine activity approach, this requires
1
The classical (non-criminological) example is Schelling’s (1987) differential moving tendency
simulation: white and black pawns are randomly distributed on a chessboard. Repeatedly an arbi-
trary pawn may select to be relocated to a new square, where white pawns prefer squares next to
other white pawns just a little bit more than next to black pawns and vice versa. In no time (i.e. in
not too many iterations of the simulation) under this scheme almost all pawns are segregated in
black and white neighbourhoods. (Notice that this simulation can be easily done “by hand” and
does not need a computer).
15 Investigating Prevention by Simulation Methods 237
models with agents that are meant to imitate the behaviour of offenders, targets and
sometimes guardians.
Within a simulation model (existing or made for the purpose), a prevention mea-
sure can be implemented in the form of a change in the characteristics of various
agents (e.g. moves of offender agents are hampered or precluded around places with
high concentrations of targets; guardian agents get an ability to “observe” what is
happening farther away; or a number of “property targets” get a higher probability
of stopping an offender agent in successfully burgling that property). Evaluating a
prevention measure boils down to comparing the outcomes of a number of simula-
tion runs with and a number of simulations without the new characteristic built in.
Usually we understand how a change in a characteristic may change just the next
single move of an agent, but due to the complex interaction between various agents,
some of them having built in those new characteristics, further development of the
whole artificial society becomes opaque. It is exactly the—usually rather com-
plex—process that governs the whereabouts of all agents, offenders, targets and
guardians, and their associated actions, that lies behind the occurrence of crime and
hence behind the resulting spatio-temporal pattern of crime occurrence. Simulation
is foremost useful for disentangling the complexities of a multitude of interactions,
which of course does not imply that not some problems demand so many and such
complex interactions that also simulation methods start to become very and perhaps
too complex.
Notice that the more we already know about the theory in which a prevention
method becomes introduced, and the more we know about the validity of the simu-
lation model in which they are built in, the more useful a simulation will be. In a
well-understood case we are aware what differences can be accounted for by known
elements in the theory, so that we can concentrate on differences generated by the
newly built-in prevention elements.
Anticipatory prevention is, within this framework, every influence that precludes
co-occurrence in time and space of offender and target agents and the absence of the
third agent, guardians, or, expressing it differently, every influence on their respec-
tive movements that decreases the likelihood that this occurrence will take place.
Examples of anticipatory prevention are measures for decreasing the streams of
potential offenders, of potential targets and for increasing the streams of potential
guardians. We may also think of measures for deflecting streams in order to mini-
mise the likelihood of meeting of potential targets and offenders, and maximising
the likelihood of meeting of guardians with offenders and targets, increasing the
opportunities for guardians to observe their environment (cf. Felson, 2006).
The field of mitigating prevention has a quite different character from that of antic-
ipatory prevention (Reynald, 2011; van Bavel & Elffers, 2013). In the execution
phase of a crime, standard conditions of routine activity theory have been fulfilled,
238 C. Gerritsen and H. Elffers
2
For example Gerritsen’s (2011) work on ABM modelling of aggression in crowds.
3
There is an interesting research tradition in bringing ordinary people in such environments and
look whether they will displaying criminal behaviour, as a function of environmental queues, e.g.
in tax evasion simulation (Webley, Robben, Elffers, & Hessing, 1991). Van Bavel (forthcoming) is
reporting on theft experiments with ordinary people in the role of offenders. The crux in that type
of experiments is of course how to manipulate the motivation of the prospective offenders.
4
Notice that authors cited here did not present their work in terms of anticipatory prevention,
which is a term introduced in the present chapter.
15 Investigating Prevention by Simulation Methods 239
rules. Offenders could move around randomly or they move with a high probability
toward the most attractive neighbour. Offenders had an attraction threshold; they
would only execute a burglary onto a target if the attraction value of that target
exceeds the threshold. Guardians could move around (1) randomly, (2) with a high
probability towards the most victimised neighbour or (3) a restricted version of
strategy, (2) with some restrictions to the area in which they could move around.
These three simulation strategies may be seen as the analogues of real life strate-
gies: random surveillance, global hot spot surveillance and local hot spot surveil-
lance. Offenders refrain from crime when a guardian is present at the same spot.
From the results of the simulations the authors inferred that it is better for guard-
ians to have a strategy to move to the most victimised targets than to move ran-
domly. Further, a clear difference between crime rates was observed, co-varying
with degree of spatial concentration of attraction values of the targets. Of course, it
is important to realise that these conclusions were drawn based on the assumptions
made by the authors in the development of the model.
The influence of different police patrol strategies on crime rates is an interest-
ing application of ABM. This topic has been explored by Melo, Belchior, and
Furtado (2006). In their article they describe a tool for assisting the investigation
of different strategies of spatial (re-)organisation of (formal) guardianship. They
apply the tool to the public safety domain and show the possibilities for preven-
tive policing. Their hypothesis is “that by knowing where the crime is currently
happening and its associated reasons, it is possible to make a more optimised
distribution of human resources and, consequently, to decrease the overall crime
rate” (pp. 101–102).
The society they created is represented by a grid of cells and consists of facilities
(these reflect commercial or entertainment businesses, and are also called notable
points or targets), offenders and police officers, all located in time and space.
Offenders are able to see a fixed number of cells around them. Police officers intend
to prevent crime and each police team has at least one route to patrol. Their presence
on this route and at the notable points prevents crime from happening.
Three different types of routes can be distinguished, namely short routes, wide
routes and critical routes. When the short route approach is used the team heads to
the most vulnerable point by creating a route that leads directly to this point and
others closest to it. A wide route means that teams take the longest possible path to
the most vulnerable point in their beat. Police teams allocated to the critical routes
approach need to cover notable points that are identified as having the highest crime
rate. The vulnerability of a notable point is calculated by comparing the number of
crimes that occurred and the number of crimes prevented. When the first outweighs
the second the location is considered to be vulnerable.
The main conclusion from this work is that regardless of the type of routes, route
organisation reduces the crime rates. A high level of mobility of the police makes
them visible and offers a sense of safety. They should re-evaluate vulnerability
often, but it is necessary that they spend some time (at least one “day”) at locations
in order to actually create the sense of safety. Unfortunately, the authors did as yet
not take the costs of moving and spatial reorganising into account.
240 C. Gerritsen and H. Elffers
Bosse and Gerritsen (2010) performed similar work and compared different
strategies for guardian movement in terms of their efficiency (costs) and effective-
ness (in terms of number of assaults). They compared reactive, anticipating and
hybrid approaches. In the reactive approaches, guardians react to the density of
offenders, or passers-by present at a certain location at an earlier time point, or to
the number of assaults that took place at that location in the recent past or over all
earlier time points. When the guardians take an anticipating approach they will
move to a location where they expect a high density of offenders or passers-by or a
high crime rate. The hybrid approaches are combinations of reactive and anticipat-
ing approaches namely (1) assaults that took place in the recent past and the density
of passers-by expected in the near future and (2) assaults that took place at all earlier
time points & the density of passers-by in the near future. The total amount of
assaults and the total costs of each of the approaches were calculated as well during
the entire simulation period. These approaches were tested in five different scenar-
ios (with different and changing attractiveness values of the hot spot locations). The
results show that the hybrid strategies are most effective but that the anticipatory
approaches are most cost-efficient.
Though the police strategy simulations discussed here show interesting and
promising results, they should not be overgeneralised. The simulations have been
performed with a limited amount of scenarios and using specific parameters and
simplified assumptions. The main goals of these approaches were to test the under-
lying theory and to attract the attention of policy makers by demonstrating the pos-
sibilities of ABM in this domain. In fact, the papers show that police strategy choice
may be a fruitful approach for anticipatory prevention, and they can be seen as an
exhortation to consider real life experiments now.
These studies all demonstrate that relatively simple interactions between offend-
ers, guardians and passers-by can result in complex dynamical patterns. When the
number of aspects increases it will be more difficult to oversee all patterns.
Computational methods like ABM can be beneficial in exploring these complex
systems.
The interaction between guardians, offenders and targets has been the research
interest of many other interesting simulation projects, among which research into
victims (Birks, Townsley, & Stewart, 2014; Johnson, 2008), pirates (Marchione,
Johnson, & Wilson, 2014), poachers (Yang, Ford, Tambe, & Lemieux, 2014), deter-
rence (van Baal, 2004), peer influence (Bosse, Elffers, and Gerritsen, 2010).
a virtual training model for people who work in the public safety domain
(http://stress.few.vu.nl). These people often have to deal with (verbal) aggressive
behaviour. The environment developed in the STRESS project helps them to learn
how to apply de-escalating communication techniques. The trainee is placed in a
scenario in the training environment and has to make decisions on how to proceed
in a certain situation. During the training the heart rate and skin conductance are
measured and together with the answers given during the training they provide input
for the feedback by the supervisor (de Man, 2014) and help make the training more
tailored to the specific needs of a trainee to ensure an optimal learning effect (Bosse,
Gerritsen, de Man, & Treur, 2013).
Another research project which focuses on de-escalating aggressive behaviour is
the recently started de-escalate project (Defusing Escalating Behaviour through the
Use of Interactive Light Scenarios, http://www.de-escalate.nl; de Kort et al., 2014).
While in the STRESS project the focus lies on intervention by a human being, the
de-escalate project uses the environment as the most important mitigating factor.
From Farrington and Welsh’s (2002) review it is known that street lighting influ-
ences crime levels. In this project it is hypothesised that light can play an important
role in de-escalating aggressive behaviour. The role of light is twofold: light can
alter the atmosphere and make a tense situation more relaxed, but light also has a
positive effect on the psychological and mental states related to aggression. The
main focus is on preventing or decreasing situations that unintentionally got out of
hand (or likely will in the near future) since it is hypothesised that light does not
have an influence on intentional aggressive behaviour. Before actually experiment-
ing in the field, the project intends to use simulation methods to explore various
complex interactions between several possibly aggressive agents under the influ-
ence of interactive light scenarios.
More and more criminologists find their way to using ABMs and other types of
simulation which is promising for potential applications. The main focus of crimi-
nologists who currently use ABMs in their research has primarily been on the
domain of environmental criminology with the interaction between potential offend-
ers, guardians and targets as main focus. There are so much more other interesting
opportunities in different criminological research areas. It is important that crimi-
nologists think outside the box they are so often trapped in.
Gathering and analysis of data is still the main focus in criminological research, but
the use of computer simulations has some additional and interesting benefits over
traditional methods. ABM helps gain more insight into (informal) theories, especially
when relationships are not clear at first sight, for example because the number of rel-
evant aspects is large or relationships between aspects are complex. Next to its use as
an analytical device for investigating the structures of theories, we feel that simulation
has also potential for actually investigating promising intervention strategies. In an
242 C. Gerritsen and H. Elffers
agent-based simulation it is relatively easy to manipulate parameters and see what the
consequences are. This is hardly possible in a real world setting (Birks & Elffers,
2014; Groff, 2007; Townsley & Birks, 2008; Townsley & Johnson, 2008). Further, by
using agent-based simulations it is possible to perform experiments that would be
unethical to do in real life. It is a promising alternative to test new policies before they
are actually implemented.
On the side of using simulated environments for investigating mitigating preven-
tion strategies, we also see some promising developments. Again, the major advan-
tage of such methods is that it is possible to bring people in threatening environments
without exposing them to real harm, as well as making it possible to re-iterate train-
ing in a cheap and reproducible way. It makes exercising possible for trainees,
sometimes even without involvement of others. Using a simulation for training pur-
poses should be considered as an addition to existing real life training, not as a
substitute of the latter.
Of course there are some limitations that need to be considered when using simu-
lations. A model is not identical to the real world, but is a stylised representation.
Using simulations in pre-evaluating prevention strategies should keep an eye open
for possible mismatch of models and reality. Conclusions drawn on the basis of a
given model are in fact based on the assumptions of the developers. That is of course
not different from other uses of models, but it does not harm to be aware of it.
We would relish to see the arrival of research programmes that look in an integrated
way to (1) simulation model development and testing on stylised facts, (2) pre-evaluat-
ing of prevention strategies, and (3) real-life evaluations of the measures that come out
of simulation studies as the most fruitful ones (Eck & Liu, 2008). We would also wel-
come simulations into more sophisticated versions of the interplay between controllers
of different types (handlers, guardians, place managers). Thus, we may exploit the
likely contributions of simulation, without being blind for its limitations. This seems to
us to be the way forward, both in anticipatory and mitigating prevention contexts.
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Part VI
Crime-Proofing Legislations
Chapter 16
Proofing Legislation Against Crime
as Situational Prevention Measure
Ernesto U. Savona
Introduction
The core idea underlying crime proofing is that legislation (intended in its broad
sense as all the norms that, at international, national and local level, regulate the
behaviours of citizens and organisations) may inadvertently produce the risk for
opportunities of crime.1
The first type of risk is non-compliance with certain regulations of the sector,
which include regulatory gaps or a lack of clarity that offers opportunities for crime.
There are different examples: the use of confusing terminology, the presence of
gaps in the regulation of a sector, an insufficient implementation of the regulation
(which creates differences among countries that can be exploited by criminals). The
second type of risks is side-effects, which “occur when legislation is created with a
certain purpose, but at the same time the legislation provides unwanted opportuni-
ties for crime”. These risks may occur when a sector is regulated too much or is
deregulated (Vander Beken & Balcaen, 2006, p. 321). Legislation may also create
risks if it “is ambiguous, provides additional opportunities for malfeasance, stokes
the motivation of persons whose positions expose them to such opportunities” (Levi
& Dorn, 2006, p. 253).
1
Different is the case of legislation that deliberately facilitates crime. It could happen that in heavy
criminal context legislators produce legislation with the aim of being easily exploited by
criminals.
E.U. Savona (*)
Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore-Transcrime, Milano, Italy
e-mail: ernesto.savona@unicatt.it
Once established why and where this legislation produces such opportunities, the
prevention activity should consist in proofing it against crime. Framing it inside the
situational prevention approach means understanding the impact of the regulations
on real life (Russell & Clarke, 2006). This is not always easy to assess, considering
that the effects of the legislation could take time before they are seen.
This approach developed in the middle of 2000 in the framework of the EU
Commission, quite close to the Impact Assessment methodology, has been neglected
for a long time for different reasons that will be explained in this chapter.
The author believes that today, with the development of complex crimes, proof-
ing legislation against crime is a more relevant challenge than it was in the past and
could contribute to the reduction of these crimes.
Today the number of norms at different levels, and their complexity, is increas-
ing at international, national and local level. That means frequent overlapping at
the same level or at different levels of legislation. The complexity of these laws is
also an issue which is quite often addressed by scholars and policy-makers.
Recently the Italian National Authority against corruption declared that one of the
remedies against corruption is to simplify laws addressing vulnerable sectors,
such as procurement and construction (Amadore, 2015). As in many other instru-
ments of situational crime prevention, crime proofing of legislation targets spe-
cific crimes that violate trust, such as fraud and corruption. Exploiting loopholes
of the legislation means complying apparently with the norms on one side, and
intentionally violating their dispositions on the other. This could happen at indi-
vidual level or at a more systemic level when criminal organisations exploit the
loopholes of the legislation to achieve their own interests. In this way, these loop-
holes become opportunities for crime.
These are the opportunities that crime proofing as an instrument of crime prevention
wants to reduce. It considers legislation for its criminogenic effects. Indeed, poorly
drafted legislation may offer unwanted illegal opportunities to criminals. If applied
to existing norms, this approach will lead to ex post crime proofing. When enacted
during the drafting of new legislation, it will be ex ante crime proofing. In order to
reduce such effects, crime proofing of legislation aims at pointing out existing (ex
post crime proofing) or future (ex ante crime proofing) opportunities for crime due to
legislation and at highlighting related interventions in order to proof it against crime.
In 2002, some authors underlined the necessity of introducing a formal crime
risk assessment into the legislative process (Albrecht & Kilching, 2002; Albrecht,
Kilching & Braun, 2002). Indeed, the EU established a steering committee in
2003 to advice on the development of a crime risk assessment process to be used
at the EU level. The Committee was assisted by some researchers, who produced
a literature review (Russell & Clarke, 2006). In 2006, Transcrime created an
initial methodology for proofing EU legislation (explained in the chapter),
proposed on the results of the European Union Crime Proofing Steering Group
16 Proofing Legislation Against Crime as Situational Prevention Measure 249
and of the Mechanisms for Assessing the Risk of Crime (MARC) project. 2This
methodology was initially developed by this project (Savona, 2006a; Savona,
Calderoni, Martocchia, & Montrasio, 2006) later tested through different case
studies in different fields (Savona, 2006b): corporate crimes (Levi & Dorn,
2006), businesses of insurance or private security (Dorn & Levi, 2006), interna-
tional banking (Curtol, Di Nicola, Martocchia, & Savona, 2006), mobile phones,
waste disposal, banking, pharmaceuticals (Vander Beken & Balcaen, 2006), pub-
lic procurement (Curtol, Pesarin, & Vander Beken, 2006) and waste management
(Dorn, Van Daele, & Vander Beken, 2007).
The crime proofing as it has been developed by the author and his colleagues
of Transcrime (Savona, Maggioni, Calderoni, & Martocchia, 2006b) consists of
two phases:
(a) Assessment of the risk that a legislative measure may produce unintended crim-
inal implications/consequences.
(b) Action to close the loopholes in the legislation, thereby “proofing” it against crime.
This process has four aims:
(a) To identify, if present, the unintended criminal implications/consequences of
existing or forthcoming legislation.
(b) To determine whether there is a crime risk, and if so, of what crime and of what
magnitude.
(c) To analyse pros and cons in terms of crimes arising from each policy option.
(d) To suggest textual changes to the legislation likely to reduce crime.
The origin of crime proofing is almost lost among different initiatives around the
end of the past century: the Swedish Tax Legislation Offices (cited by Albrecht,
Kilchling, & Braun, 2002, p. 266) and different preliminary studies (Albrecht,
Kilchling, & Braun, 2002; Leppä, 1999). Its main development occurs when the
issue becomes politically relevant for the European Union. This issue was origi-
nally highlighted by the EU Institutions regarding possible actions to be taken to
monitor and control the infiltration of organised crime into the legitimate economy.
In 1980, the Gabert Report emphasised the relationships between legislation and
fraud, pointing out that complex laws may stimulate fraudulent behaviours and that
these behaviours were facilitated by asymmetries in the implementation of EU
policies (Gabert, 1984). After the Tampere European Council Presidency
Conclusions of 1999,3 which made broad statements on the need to integrate
aspects of crime prevention into legislation, several documents enacted by the EU
2
Special issue of the European Journal of Criminal Policy and Research, 12(3–4)
3
Conclusion No. 41 of the Tampere European Council, 15–16 October 1999.
250 E.U. Savona
Commission have emphasised the added value of a crime proofing strategy for
legislation (European Commission, 2000; Commission of the European
Communities, 2001a, 2001b, 2001c; European Crime Prevention Network, 2001,
p. 4). Establishing a crime proofing mechanism for the EU decision-making pro-
cess could have provided powerful instruments to prevent crime, by minimising
possible risks arising from the laws’ weakness, and therefore achieving greater
security and more opportunities for EU citizens. According to the European
Commission, “crime prevention includes all activities which contribute to halting
or reducing crime as a social phenomenon, both qualitatively and quantitatively,
either through permanent and structured co-operation measures or through ad hoc
initiatives. These activities are undertaken by all actors likely to play a preventive
role: local representatives, enforcement services and judicial system, social ser-
vices, education system, associations in the broad sense, industry, banks and the
private sector, research workers and scientists, and the general public, supported by
the media” (Commission of the European Communities, 2000, p. 7).
Several law reform projects, at international and national levels, may have an
impact on crimes. The screening of legislation for provisions that create or facilitate
opportunities for crime may significantly contribute towards minimising potential
crime risks and their implications in terms of costs and victims.
The importance of crime proofing in the EU crime prevention strategy was con-
firmed in the 2004 Assessment of the Tampere Programme, where the Commission
stated that “as regards crime prevention, efforts must be made to make goods and
services less vulnerable to crime. The crime-proofing of legislation must be an inte-
gral part of this effort” (Commission of the European Communities, 2004, p. 15).
For reasons that have not been clearly explained the issue of crime proofing has
been suddenly abandoned by the European Commission in the second part of the
2000. The author assumes that this was provoked by the conflicts between differ-
ent bureaucracies. DG Home4 launched the priority of crime proofing and was
authorised to intervene in all the policy sectors of the EU Commission that needed
new legislation such as Health or Environment. Pointing out crime implications in
future EU legislation could have scrambled the division of the labour and compe-
tences among different Directions giving to one (DG HOME) the authority to
modify incoming legislation. The problem was considered with the Impact
Assessment procedure, a mandatory process through which future EU legislation
should have been scrutinised (European Commission, 2009). Crime implications
were inserted in the social and environmental aspects—but quite often crime
aspects have not been considered by EU, as the case of Directive Illicit Tobacco
Markets addressed in the essay of Stefano Caneppele contained in this book.
Impact Assessment and Crime proofing could have been complementary if prop-
erly done. At that time there were all the elements for this action: Impact
Assessment for analysing the risk of crime connected to a forthcoming legislation
and crime proofing for reducing it modifying the laws.
4
Departments (Directorates-General) of Migrations and Home Affairs of the European
Commission. It prepares EU-level rules in these policy areas and watches over their application.
16 Proofing Legislation Against Crime as Situational Prevention Measure 251
Impact Assessment is “a set of logical steps to be followed when you prepare policy
proposals. It is a process that prepares evidence for political decision-makers on the
advantages and disadvantages of possible policy options by assessing their potential
impacts” (European Commission, 2009, p. 4).
The IA process aims at providing European Union policymakers with “sound
analysis supported by the best data available” (European Commission, 2009, p. 6).
It has been mainly designed to address the social, economic and environmental
impacts of envisaged proposals of the European Commission (European
Commission, 2009, p. 48). In this framework, crime issues are briefly considered.
The Commission’s Guidelines envisage the following questions to act as drivers
when addressing crime and terrorism issues related to different policy options
(European Commission, 2009, p. 36):
• “Does the option have an effect on security, crime or terrorism?
• Does the option affect the criminal’s chances of detection or his/her potential
gain from the crime?
• Is the option likely to increase the number of criminal acts?
• Does it affect law enforcement capacity?
• Will it have an impact on security interests?
• Will it have an impact on the right to liberty and security, the right to fair trial and
the right of defense?
• Does it affect the rights of victims of crime and witnesses?”
In some ways Impact Assessment if properly done through the inclusion of crime
issues could have been the right complement of the crime proofing exercise. If a
new law was in the process, assessing the risk of crime eventually produced by one
of the options considered could have been an alert signal given to regulators before
enactment. At the end, the decision if and how to modify the forthcoming legisla-
tion because of the risk of crime, could have been a more responsible decision. The
Impact Assessment procedure has become a routine activity at least inside the
European Commission and, for what is known to the author, the crime implications
of forthcoming legislation have been rarely considered at European level.
Although not practised until now, Impact Assessment and Crime Proofing could
come together. Evaluating if past legislation has impacted upon crime or if the new
law will have an impact could help regulators to proof legislation against crime.
This could modify policy options (in the case of IA) and/or revise the form and the
252 E.U. Savona
content of the legislation in those parts that could produce opportunities for crime
when a law is enacted. How to merge the developing IA process with Crime
Proofing, which is almost neglected? What follows in this chapter is the tentative for
developing a methodology that combines the two. Reference should be done to the
manual Transcrime has developed in 2006 for the European Commission (Savona,
Maggioni, et al., 2006b).
As explained there are two phases: the risk assessment one and the proofing. The
Crime Risk Assessment process only aims at highlighting potential crime risks in
envisaged policy options that may affect the effectiveness of EU policies. The final
decision whether to adopt one policy option or another, implying different levels of
crime risk, will lie with the decision-making bodies that will evaluate the different
trade-offs between crime risks and the other impacts (social, economic and environ-
mental impacts) of the proposed action.
ranging from fraud against creditors and tax crime to money laundering and the
financing of terrorism. All major financial scandal (such as Enron and Parmalat)
showed the involvement of shell companies in such massive frauds.
Example 3: suspicious transaction legislation.
According to anti-money laundering legislation, bank clerks have to report suspi-
cious transactions. However, in those areas where criminal organisations are pow-
erful and where intimidation or collusive behaviours are frequent, such a duty may
expose clerks to threats or violence. This was facilitated by weak legislation, not
providing effective measures to guarantee the anonymity of bank officials report-
ing suspicious operations. Such a loophole discouraged officials from reporting
and therefore facilitated the commission of money laundering and other illicit
operations.
Example 4: dividends-received deduction and criminal exploitation.
The dividends-received deduction system is meant to avoid double taxation of divi-
dends. Dividends that are already subject to taxation in the home country of the
company should not be taxed again in the country of the shareholder. According to
the Belgian Tax Code (articles 202 § 2 and 203), dividends paid to a domestic
company could, under certain conditions and within certain boundaries, be
deducted and excluded from taxation. There was an exception on this benefit for
dividends paid by a company that was established in a country in which the laws
on the payment of taxes was “seriously more advantageous” than in Belgium.
However, the wording “seriously more advantageous” was not further elaborated
by the legislator, which of course made it very difficult to know the exact scope of
application of the provision in the law.
Consequently, this system favoured a practice in which a company benefited
from the dividends-received deduction even for dividends that were barely taxed or
not taxed at all in foreign countries. Such ambiguity in the norm wording stimu-
lated a mechanism that finally led companies to evade taxation on dividends. As of
24 December 2002, this system was changed by law to prevent such abuses.
Example 5: turnover of officials.
Article 46 of Council Legislation (EC) no. 2157/2001, which creates a European
Company (Societas Europaea) fixes the term of office for members of the govern-
ing bodies. The rule explicitly provides for a term of 6 years, after which auditors
should quit their office, but it also says that “members may be reappointed once or
more than once for the period determined in accordance with paragraph 1”. The
consequence is that there is no effective duty of turn over: for example, an auditor
could be re-elected without limit. This loophole decreases the independence of
guardians, possibly leading to collusion and conflict of interests.
Example 6: controls in the financial system.
Art. 129 of the Italian Testo Unico Bancario (TUB) proved to be the weak point in
the Cirio case. Indeed, its unclear wording seemed to limit the powers of Bankitalia,
the Italian National Bank, to control only in the “primary market” of foreign bonds
(i.e. the market between the company issuing the bonds and the financial interme-
diaries/banks acquiring them). The secondary market (i.e. the market between
254 E.U. Savona
The following checklist that has been initially prepared for European Union Officials
could be extended to other and different regulative experiences. It should be consid-
ered as an instrument through which Regulators could be able to explore possible
unintended criminal implications associated with legislation. Its purpose is to
explore whether a regulatory strategy contains any crime risk and, if so, to separate
such risk into its components.
16 Proofing Legislation Against Crime as Situational Prevention Measure 255
The checklist is structured on three steps, which allows for a gradual assessment.
It has been developed to answer two questions: (a) Does legislation produce any
unintended crime risk? And (b) if so, how is this crime risk structured? The first two
steps of the checklist will provide information in order to answer question (a), while
the third step will answer question (b).
The checklist follows the proportionate analysis principle: after each step, only
those legislations which show a relevant crime risk will continue to the following
steps. This decision is taken by the officials that are answering the checklist. Crime
risks are relevant when the answers to the questions of the same step highlight
actual criminal implication requiring further assessment.
Example
The vulnerability of a market sector derives from its attractiveness and its acces-
sibility to potential criminals.
1. Attractiveness: it can be defined as the profitability of a market for criminals
minus the risk they run of being detected and punished:
ATTRACTIVENESS = PROFITABILITY − RISK OF DETECTION
(a) Profitability: it concerns the profit/gain/benefit a criminal could obtain by
committing an illicit activity, motivation.
(b) Risk of detection: it concerns the risk to criminals of being detected and
punished. The higher the risk of detection, the lower the attractiveness, and
hence the market is less vulnerable to crime.
2. Accessibility: it concerns the possibility of a market being entered by crimi-
nals, i.e. the presence of obstacles or barriers raised by the legislator to prevent
criminals from accessing the market. The more a market is provided with bar-
riers against access by illegitimate operators, the less vulnerable it is to crime.
Of course, barriers may produce negative effects on the market, but this issue
concerns the evaluation of other impacts produced by the policies which should
be considered in balance, as a trade-off with the crime risk assessment.
At the end of this assessment if any relevant crime risk has been envisaged the
policy option will pass to the third step.
STEP 3—Crime Components
The previous step discovers if any crime risk is associated with the policy option.
In case of a positive answer this step analyses the envisaged risk, entering into the
details of its components and exploring its magnitude. Criminological expertise is
required to answer the related questionnaire.
The following paragraph contains the question in capital letters. Examples are pre-
sented in boxes.
STEP 1. General Crime Risk Indicators
QUESTION 1.1. DOES THE LEGISLATION INTRODUCE A NEW OR
MORE BURDENSOME OBLIGATION?
The introduction of new or heavier burdens increases the risk of non-compliant
behaviours, usually carried out through illicit activities. Waste disposal services, for
example, are characterised by burdens and costs finalised to reduce negative environ-
mental impacts linked to waste production. However, these burdensome obligations
are also an incentive to choose illegal channels for waste disposal. Waste producers
aim at minimising their costs, thus opting for waste firms which offer low costs,
without checking whether they are legitimate operators or criminal organisations, as
well as sometimes colluding with them. As waste disposal services are mainly pro-
vided by local firms, this favours criminal organisations, which act as unfair competi-
tors and create illegal oligopolies. Burdensome obligations may include: new
standards, new administrative requirements, additional procedures/bureaucracy.
16 Proofing Legislation Against Crime as Situational Prevention Measure 257
Example
Council Directive 2000/53/CE on End-Of-Life Vehicles promotes the recov-
ery and reuse of vehicles at the end of their life, by establishing a treatment
process which should improve the environmental performances of the eco-
nomic operators. This entails weighting the last owner of a vehicle with the
costs of its treatment and of a Certification of Destruction (COD). However,
such increased administrative burdens are likely to raise the rate of abandoned
vehicles and of illegal dumping activities.5
Example 1
Council Legislation 2007/2000/EC removed a tariff on sugar imported from
Serbia and Montenegro into the EU. This allowance was used to perform a
sort of “carousel fraud”: goods were being exported from the EU, using export
subsidies, and then freely re-imported from Serbia and Montenegro, finally
evading taxes.
Example 2
The EU duty suspension system was introduced as a part of the Internal
Market to improve trade between EU Member States (MSs). The unwanted
effect of this policy was the so-called “excise diversion funds” phenomenon.
According to this system, those trading excise goods and providing evidence
of their movement to other registered traders in the EU, or of their export
outside the EU, can have the payment of the excise duty suspended. This
would be payable whether the goods were moved to an unregistered trader or
for consumption. Such movements, together with the status of goods, were
recorded through the Accompanying Administrative Document (AAD).
However this mechanism has been abused to obtain the suspension: compa-
nies stimulated the trade of excise goods, which were distributed on the mar-
ket and not in a registered country, or exported and then returned them as
duty-free goods to the home market.
5
The case studies reported hereinafter are taken from Russell M., Clarke R., Government
Regulations and their Unintended Consequences for Crime: a Project to Develop Risk Indicators,
London 2003, report prepared by the Jill Dando Institute and Transcrime for the EU Crime
Proofing Steering Group.
258 E.U. Savona
These examples show how tax relief can increase motivation to commit crime.
Inadequate vetting of warehouses and standards as proof of movement, as well as
improper controls and inspections (reduced after the introduction of the duty sus-
pension system) were identified as added factors which favoured such fraud.
QUESTION 1.3. DOES THE LEGISLATION INTRODUCE BENEFITS SUCH
AS GRANTS, SUBSIDIES AND COMPENSATION SCHEMES?
Grants, subsidies, compensation schemes and benefits can often be an incentive
to adopt deceptive means to obtain such profits. For example differences in the level
of compensation for different benefits may lead to deceptive behaviour in order to
receive the most profitable benefit.
Fraudulent behaviours are the most likely offences stimulated by such measures,
potentially facilitated by corrupting the public officials in charge with the proceed-
ings. Such measures may include: subsidies, grants and compensation schemes.
Example 1
The UK foot and mouth compensation scheme increased the motivation for
committing fraud, exploiting the weak controls in the sector. The system pro-
vides compensation to the owners of infected livestock when they declare that
these have been destroyed. Some farmers exploited this compensation scheme
by various means: false or inflated claims, deliberate infection of their live-
stock to make claims and colluding with administering officials in defrauding
the government.
Example 2
The agriculture sector offers many examples of fraudulent behaviour aiming
to exploit government benefits, e.g. for organic food and farming. The
European Union promotes the development of organic farming, through tar-
geted funds. However, it was often found that false organic products are traded
as organic, as well as these funds being diverted toward non-organic
farming.
Example
Since the 1990s, the UK has introduced high excise on tobacco, aiming to
discourage tobacco consumption. However, the negative impact has been an
increase in tobacco smuggling, involving other European countries, in par-
ticular from the Netherlands, which are gates into UK from the continent for
illegal trade.6
Example
During the twentieth century countries produced laws prohibiting many goods
and services belonging to the category of “vice”, such as alcohol, drugs, pros-
titution, gambling. In each of these cases the experience shows that when one
of these goods/services is prohibited a correspondent illegal market emerges
to respond to the existing demand. The recent debate about the legalisation of
marihuana has been oriented to the goal of reducing the amount of crime con-
nected with the illegal traffic of this substance.
6
To this purpose see the related study: Van Duyne P.C., Organizing cigarette smuggling and policy
making, ending up in smoke, in “Crime, Law and Social Change”, no. 39, 2003, pp. 285-317.
260 E.U. Savona
Example 1
The introduction of federal jurisdiction over tobacco smuggling in the USA
facilitated an increase in tobacco smuggling, due to a decreased involvement
of State law enforcement agencies. Indeed, the centralisation of law enforce-
ment activity reduced the effectiveness of controls.
Example 2
Unintended negative impacts have been associated to the strengthening of
USA–Mexico border enforcement in the 1990s. As organised smuggling
groups perceived a higher difficulty in moving between the countries, an
increase of illegal immigrants in the USA was registered, together with
border-crossing attempts in less protected areas. Another consequence was
the increased number of crossing deaths, due to the adoption of more clandes-
tine methods of transit from one country to the other.
Example
The number of goods classifications used by customs has been deemed to be
a risk factor for corruptive practices. The large number of possible classifica-
tions, which allows for different interpretations, favours the discretion of cus-
toms officials, e.g. giving them the power to classify a good into a lower-tax
category.
Example
The recent Italian scandals, in particular the Parmalat and the Banca Popolare
Italiana (BPI) cases, highlight an example of regulatory uncertainty. In the lat-
ter scandal the BPI was investigated to find whether it acted illegally in attempt-
ing to buy its competitor Antonveneta and whether any illegitimate help of the
ex-governor of Bankitalia could be found. Regulatory overlaps have been dis-
covered in the identification of Bankitalia and Consob’s competencies. The for-
mer should control banking activities; the latter is in charge of monitoring the
stock exchange market. Both of them played a role in the Antonveneta business,
but the borders of their duties and responsibilities were not clear. Such a gap,
making the respective competencies uncertain, poses a great risk of the market
being compromised along with the involved operators.
Example
The lack of a proper implementing structure and mechanism, as well as the
provision of unrealistic deadlines, may hamper Member States of the European
Union in the correct application of new measures. The same effect may be
produced when national budgets are insufficient or inadequate for meeting the
requests of the EU legislator.
Example
Off-shore jurisdictions are used not only to bypass tax burdens, but also as
privileged channels for the activities of organised crime groups. Money laun-
dering, financing of terrorism and trafficking of legal and illegal goods exploit
the lack of transparency offered by these legal systems. Asymmetries between
on-shore and off-shore jurisdictions are an incentive to choose less transpar-
ent channels, which offer anonymous banking services and profitable busi-
ness solutions.7
Example
Criminals have preferred sectors for different reasons.8 They become vulner-
able when these markets are in areas where the presence of organised crime is
relevant. The existence of other crimes, such as extortion, organised crime-
related homicides, fraud and corruption, could be a good indicator of the
vulnerability of these markets.
7
To deepen the question see Transcrime, Euroshore-Protecting the EU Financial System from the
Exploitation of Financial Centres and Offshore Facilities by Organised Crime, Transcrime, Trento,
January 2000.
8
To deepen the example, see chapter “Organised crime investments in Europe” in Savona Ernesto
U. & Riccardi Michele (Eds.). 2015. From illegal markets to legitimate businesses: the portfolio of
organised crime in Europe. Final Report of Project OCP—Organised Crime Portfolio (www.
ocportfolio.eu). Trento: Transcrime—Università degli Studi di Trento.
16 Proofing Legislation Against Crime as Situational Prevention Measure 263
Example
The fashion and pharmaceutical markets are profitable for counterfeiting
because of the high value of trademarks;
The waste market is profitable for criminal organisations, whose profits are
gained by avoiding the costs of the legitimate market. The tobacco market is
profitable for smuggling because of the high taxes levied on cigarettes.
Example
The waste disposal market is characterised by low visibility and weak con-
trols, due to the difficulty in monitoring waste movement from the producers
to the final site. In Italy this happens because of the local dimension of waste
disposal services connected to criminal oligopolies, which are able to prevent
effective controls. Paper controls, i.e. documents certifying the nature and
destination of waste during transit, contribute towards weakening the whole
system, by being exposed to falsification and abuse.
barriers rose against illegitimate entry into the market, the less it will be accessible to
criminals. Such measures may prevent companies with bad or less reliable finances
(thus more inclined to bypass legitimate channels) from accessing to the market. Barriers
may be of different natures, ranging from: background checks, standards of profession-
alism/competence/honesty, economic thresholds, administrative authorisations etc.
Example
Public Procurement legislations usually fix an economic threshold for compa-
nies which intend to compete for tenders. The minimum capital required aims
at selecting participants, on the assumption that possession of a high capital
should ensure high reliability. However, if the legislation does not apply also
to subcontractors the goal of the provision is defeated. Such a loophole may
be exploited by criminal organisations, which would be able to bypass the
economic barrier.
Example
Laws prohibiting or regulating sectors in between legal and illegal markets,
such as drugs and prostitution, could produce other indirect crimes beyond the
crimes of drug trafficking or prostitution, such as robberies, burglaries,
violence.
Example
Thanks to technological improvements, many new laws introduced electronic
controls in sensible sectors/markets (e.g. transports, food production). The
replacement of paper documents with electronic documents with appropriate
anti-forgery devices increase the risk of being detected for criminals and
should therefore deter them from forge certificates and documents.
16 Proofing Legislation Against Crime as Situational Prevention Measure 265
Example
Legislation introducing expensive burdens or requirements on market opera-
tor may render very profitable a non-complying or falsely complying behav-
iour by enterprises.
Example
If a law regulating customs duties will create opportunities for fraud, it could
be possible that the number of fraudsters will increase. The same thing hap-
pens for corruption. When the opportunities for corruption increase due to a
law it could happen that in an environment affected by systemic corruption
more people take the risk (which seems low) of being corrupted or corrupt.
Example
A piece of legislation introduces controls on the quality of food. Consequently,
it regulates the production processes and requires such processes to be certi-
fied by competent authorities. These provisions will indirectly increase the
organisational requirements to commit crimes in the food sector. Indeed,
criminal may have to bribe national authorities and/or forge the required cer-
tifications. Since such activities do not fall under the standard food production
activities, they will probably need the involvement of third persons in the
criminal activity, so increasing the complexity of the organisation.
Example
Electronic documents require higher skills to be forged than mere paper docu-
ments. Consequently, their introduction may increase the skills required to
commit forgery and other crimes.
Example
Annual financial reports must be certified as true by a registered accountant,
who is recognised by her peers and through a professional body.
Example
In order to ensure appropriate guarantees for the customers and the solidity of
the banking system, banks have to fulfil with a series of requirements in order
to operate with the public, such as capital reserves. Any change in such
requirements will consequently modify the structure of the banking sector.
These modifications may impact on the sector in a positive (e.g. increasing
concurrence and transparency of the banking system) or negative way (e.g.
facilitating frauds or increasing the opacity of the market), thus affecting the
economic/legal requirements to commit credit frauds and other similar crimes.
Example
After the occurrence of a disaster, emergency legislation allocating funds for
reconstruction is usually enacted, whose vulnerabilities are exploited
by organised crime in order to divert the aids to their convenience. On 23
November 1980 an earthquake struck Irpinia (Southern Italy) causing 2735
deaths. The emergency relief law was exploited by organised crime (camorra).
The level of criminal infiltration in the building industry rose, the buildings
were not reconstructed or were reconstructed late and/or badly, and other
crimes (killings, corruption and arson) were committed.
Example
The introduction of anti-pollution norms in Italy has force many enterprises to
move their activities in countries with more permissive environmental legisla-
tion. E.g. an enterprises producing aluminium coffee machines in Northern
Italy moved its production plants in Eastern Europe, where anti-pollution laws
are less strict and could easily be fooled. As a consequence, the people living in
such countries became victims of possibly illegal pollution and had to sustain
higher health care costs in countries with worse the public health systems.
Example
A change in industrial property legislation may not specify in a clear way
when a company’s trademark is imitating another registered trademark. Such
a piece of legislation would likely increase the number of companies suffering
from illicit trademark imitation.
Example
Legislation of the credit sector may require specific pre-existing assets in order
to obtain fund from banks or other sponsor. This mechanism may push newborn
enterprises to avoid the legal credit sector and resort to the usury market.
Example
Legislation regulating vulnerable markets should take in account direct and indirect
costs of crime, including the cost of anticipation and reaction usually not considered
by many policy options. In the case of prohibition of health-damaging substances
the emergence of an illegal market produces more crime and direct and indirect
costs for citizens that could be reduced increasing the costs of law enforcement.
Example
Legislation decreasing controls on the pharmaceutical sector may affect the
product reliability and safety. This may impact on the cost suffered by victims
of frauds and counterfeiting of pharmaceutical products, since they may face
higher health care costs due to unexpected effect of medicines.
Example
Frauds against the EU common agricultural policy directly affect the EU and
MSs budget. However, these crimes also hinder the ultimate purposes of the
common agricultural policy, subtracting fund from deserving commercial
farms. The social costs include the losses and inefficiencies caused by this
diversion of funds from their original and legitimate goal.
The following diagram represents a procedure to assess the risk of crime related to a
forthcoming legislation that could have multiple options related to a single law or many
laws aiming at the same goal. The CRA process starts with the Initial Screening which
frames the laws or the policy options into seven different general risk indicators (out-
lined before at The Three-Step Checklist—STEP 1. General Crime Risk Indicators); if
the prospected legislation is found to be at risk, the procedure should go to the
Preliminary Crime Risk Assessment (PCRA), which assesses the potentially crimino-
genic policy options. If the PCRA highlights at least a medium level crime risk, an
Extended Crime Risk Assessment (ECRA), which will assess more deeply the crime
risks connected to the legislation and/or its options, will be recommended. The ques-
tions outlined before at step 1, 2, 3 are the guidelines of this procedure.
The following diagram illustrates the main steps of the CRA process:
270 E.U. Savona
YES
YES
The three steps outlined before could be adapted according to the typology of proof-
ing activity, mainly if it is ex post or ex ante. It is possible to know that a given
market is highly vulnerable because of its attractiveness and because of the strong
presence of organised crime, then the analysis of laws could come almost immedi-
ately looking at the characteristics that make this legislation at risk of producing
opportunities for crime. This is the specific activity of proofing the legislation.
In a recent experience this approach was applied by Transcrime in different
areas, in particular on a specific Directive and in a specific geographical and limited
area (the province of Trento in Italy). In this case the analysis was developed through
two steps. The former classifying those sectors considered at crime risk, and the
second looking at those laws that were regulating the different sectors under
observation.
Among the sectors considered were procurement, construction, transportation,
that in the Italian reality present some risks of being exploited by criminals and in
the Province of Trento were found as vulnerable (Transcrime, 2013).
For each of these sectors the following activities were developed:
1. Literature analysis and case studies, mainly drawn from judicial sources, of how
organised crime has exploited these sectors.
9
The methodology of the CPL has been applied, directly or indirectly by Transcrime in different
areas: evaluation of crime risk implications (Savona, Maggioni, Calderoni, & Martocchia, 2006a),
procurement (Curtol, Pesarin, et al., 2006), international banking (Curtol, Di Nicola, Martocchia, &
Savona, 2006) and waste management (Dorn et al., 2007). Recently, the CPL has also been applied
to the tobacco sector (Calderoni, Savona, & Solmi, 2012; Caneppele, Savona, & Aziani, 2013).
16 Proofing Legislation Against Crime as Situational Prevention Measure 271
1. Volume of the legislation How many laws are regulating the same sector?
2. Internal Organisation Has the legislation an obscure and inconsistent structure (i.e. not
clear partitions and not logically articulated)
3. Conflicts and Are the single dispositions of the legislation conflicting among
contradictions in the them and/or conflicting with the general legislation of the sector?
same legal framework
• CLARITY
This step refers to the language used by texts of law. Generic and/or too wide and
ambiguous concepts could create misunderstandings with different typologies of
implementation. The assumption is that the less the clarity of the text and its
ambiguity, the more it could be exploited for criminal purposes.
The following qualitative indicators were considered:
• CONTROL MECHANISM
This step evaluates whether the law provides adequate control mechanisms. The
assumption is that the less these mechanisms are present, the more the legislation
could be exploited for criminal purposes
The following qualitative indicators were considered:
7. Control Mechanisms Does the legislation provide mechanisms to control its correct
implementation?
For each of these seven indicators it was developed a qualitative analysis and given a
qualitative score following a scale from the Lowest vulnerability to the Highest: High–Low;
Low; Medium; Medium–High; High.
272 E.U. Savona
Conclusions
In the different applications of the crime proofing methodology there has been a
wide room for subjective interpretations by those who have implemented it. In the
three-step methodology that has been used for the European Union Directives the
evaluation has been done by a panel of experts in the sector of the legislation. The
initial idea of setting measurable indicators has been abandoned in favour of more
explorative and qualitative evaluations on the laws, on the vulnerability of the mar-
ket under legislation and its attractiveness. This approach developed by a panel of
experts without setting up benchmarks could be developed in favour of a more
quantitative and measurable approach with measurable indicators. This depends on
the sector considered and data available about crime environment. For example the
European and national legislation of procurement is a framework for single laws
that are produced and implemented at local level. There are areas inside the same
country where the risk of exploitation is different due to the presence of crime envi-
ronment and to socio-economic conditions that make this environment attractive to
crime. The same thing could occur for the construction industry that is an attractive
sector for organised crime infiltration in the legitimate businesses and its implemen-
tation could produce asymmetries, both among countries and inside the same coun-
try, more related to demand and supply mechanisms. This necessary flexibility in
evaluating whether past or new legislation could produce opportunities for crime
requests a panel of experts knowing areas and sectors that follow established guide-
lines rather than a quantitative assessment.
As for many applications of the situational prevention techniques proofing legis-
lation against crime is a methodology that varies across different sectors and areas
regulated by laws. It could be improved with more and more applications in differ-
ent sectors, areas and countries with different legislative systems. At least, if widely
practised, crime proofing could make policy makers aware of the risk that their
action could produce criminal consequences.
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274 E.U. Savona
Stefano Caneppele
Introduction
Crime proofing of legislation (CPL) can be a valuable tool for crime prevention.
CPL makes policymakers aware of the unintended criminal opportunities that regu-
lation may generate. CPL can be applied to the forthcoming legislation (ex ante
evaluation) or to the legislation in force (ex post evaluation).
This chapter shows how CPL operates in practice. The case study regards the
new EU Tobacco Products Directive which has been finally adopted by the European
Council on the 14th March 2014. Transcrime applied the crime proofing methodol-
ogy to the draft version (submitted to the EU Parliament) in order to understand
whether the new regulation may unintentionally have generated criminal opportuni-
ties. The exercise indicated that the preliminary provisions relating to a ban of men-
thol and slim cigarettes in the EU Market: (a) could have increased the illicit tobacco
market by between 11.2 and 17 % for slim cigarettes and by 2.9 and 5.1 % for men-
thol cigarettes; (b) could have reduced the EU MSs tax revenue to between €1 and
more than €2 billion due to the illicit sales of menthol and slim cigarettes. Eventually,
the final version of the Tobacco Products Directive did not include the ban for slim
cigarettes.
S. Caneppele (*)
School of Criminal Sciences, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
e-mail: stefano.caneppele@unil.ch
Criminal opportunities in the tobacco market refer to the illicit trade of tobacco
products (ITTP). The European Commission defines illicit trade as ‘any practice or
conduct prohibited by law and which relates to production, shipment, receipt, pos-
session, distribution, sale or purchase, including any practice or conduct intended to
facilitate such activity’ (European Commission, 2014, see art. 1 of the WHO
Framework convention on tobacco control). The ITTP comprises various illicit
activities (Calderoni, Savona, & Solmi, 2012) such as:
On the 19th December 2012, DG SANCO presented the proposal for a revision of
the TPD Directive and its accompanying impact assessment. The main objective
of the revision was ‘to improve the functioning of the internal market, while
ensuring a high level of health protection’ (European Commission, 2012a, p. 46,
2012b, p. 49). The impact assessment suggested preferred policy options in five
policy areas (European Commission, 2012a): (1) smokeless tobacco products
(STP) and extension of the product scope (i.e. nicotine-containing products (NCP)
and herbal products for smoking), (2) packaging and labeling, (3) ingredients/
17 Crime Proofing of Legislation in Practice… 277
additives, (4) cross-border distance sales and (5) traceability and security features
(European Commission, 2012a, 2). The proposal for a revision of the Tobacco
Products Directive (COM (2012) 788 final) was presented on the 19th December
2012. It received all the preferred policy options suggested in the impact assess-
ment. Table 17.1 summarises the main elements of the proposal which could have
changed the TPD currently in force.
CPL works through a crime risk assessment mechanism (CRAM). CRAM starts
with an initial screening (IS), it continues through a Preliminary Risk Assessment
(PRA) and it ends with an Extended Risk Assessment (ERA). Each step narrows
down the attention on the most at risk part of regulation which may generate crimi-
nal opportunities.
Initial Screening
Initial Screening (IS) is the first step in the Crime Risk Assessment (CRA) process.
Its aim is to select which part of the TPD should undergo a CRA process. Namely,
the IS scans all the articles and it identifies those which fall into CPL risk indicators
((1). Fee/Obligation; (2). Concession; (3). Grant, Subsidy or Compensation Scheme;
(4). Tax or Cost; (5). Availability Restriction; (6). Law Enforcement; (7). Regulatory
Power).
Overall, the IS highlighted that most of the articles of the TPD proposal fell
within the risk indicators concerning fees and obligations, imposing taxes or costs
or restricting the availability of the tobacco products (see Table 17.2). In other
words, most of the innovations recommended were considered at risk by the first
step of the crime proofing methodology. Since they impose fee/obligation or tax/
cost or restrict the availability of tobacco products, those measures could have gen-
erated opportunities for crime. Therefore it was necessary to further investigate
through the Preliminary Crime Risk Assessment (PCRA) the possible magnitude of
those crime risks.
The Preliminary Crime Risk Assessment (PCRA) analyses the vulnerability of the
tobacco market to crime and discusses possible crime risks arising from the preferred
policy options.
278 S. Caneppele
Table 17.1 TPD proposal for revision (December 2012): main changes
TITLE II—Tobacco products
Ingredients and Reporting of ingredients and emissions (Art. 5)
emissions (Chapter Manufacturers are obliged to electronically report ingredients (glossary)
I) of tobacco products in accordance with a common format and to provide
(Art. 3-6) supporting data (e.g. marketing reports).
Regulation of ingredients (Art. 6)
Prohibition of the use of additives in tobacco products which contain:
(a) vitamins or similar, or (b) caffeine and taurine or other stimulant
compounds, (c) colouring properties for emissions.
Prohibition of the use of flavourings in the components of tobacco
products such as filters, papers, packages, capsules or any technical
features allowing modification of flavour or smoke intensity (prohibition
of menthol cigarettes).
Tobacco products other than FMC, RYO and STP (i.e. cigars, cigarillos
and pipes) are exempted.
Labeling and Combined health warnings for tobacco for smoking (Art. 9)
Packaging Each unit packet and any outside packaging of tobacco for smoking shall
(Chapter II) carry combined health warnings which shall: (a) be comprised of a text
(Art. 7–14) warning and a corresponding colour photograph specified in the picture
library, (b) include smoking cessation, (c) cover 75 % of the external
area of both the front and back surface of the unit packet and any outside
packaging
Product Description (Art. 12)
The labeling shall not include any element or feature that: (a) promotes a
tobacco product by means that are false, misleading, deceptive or likely to
create an erroneous impression about its characteristics, health effects,
hazards or emissions; (b) suggests that a particular tobacco product is less
harmful than others or has health or social effects; (c) refers to flavour,
taste, any flavourings or other additives or the absence thereof; (d)
resembles a food product.
Cigarettes with a diameter of less than 7.5 mm shall be deemed to be
misleading (prohibition of slim cigarettes).
Traceability and Security Features (Art. 14)
EU tracking and tracing system. An EU tracking and tracing system at
packet level for tobacco products throughout the supply chain (excluding
retail) is introduced. Tobacco manufacturers shall conclude contracts with
independent third parties that provide data storage capacities for such
system ensuring full transparency and accessibility by member states at all
times (par. 6).
Security features. Adoption of security features against counterfeiting
and against illicit/cheap whites on all tobacco products (e.g. holograms).
Tobacco for oral Art. 15
use (Chapter III) No changes compared to the current TPD
(continued)
17 Crime Proofing of Legislation in Practice… 279
The analysis of the vulnerability of the European tobacco market is based on two
dimensions. The first is how the tobacco market is attractive to crime (Table 17.3).
The second relates to the accessibility of the tobacco market to criminals (Table
17.4). Since this analysis has been carried out in our recent study (Calderoni et al.,
2012), this section provides only a summary of and an update on the results.
Tables 17.5, 17.6, 17.7 and 17.8 combine, for each TPD section, the envisaged
crime risks and their probability. The probability assessment has been carried out
relying on secondary sources that could support the assessment.
280 S. Caneppele
Table 17.2 Measures of the TPD proposal falling within the seven risk indicators of the initial
screening
Risk indicators 1. Fee/Obligation
2. Concession 3. Grant, Subsidy
or Compensation Scheme 4. Tax
or Cost 5. Availability Restriction
Legal elements of 6. Law Enforcement 7.
the proposal Articles of the TPD proposal Regulatory Power
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Ingredients and Mandatory reporting in • •
emissions (Art. 3–6) harmonised format (Art. 5)
Ban on characterizing flavours, •
including menthol (Art. 6)
Labeling and Mandatory enlarged picture • •
packaging (Art. warnings (Art. 9)
7–14) Impose stricter labeling (Art. 11) • •
regulation for smokeless tobacco
products
Ban of misleading colours, • •
symbols and slim FMC (Art. 12)
EU tracking and tracing system • •
and security features (Art. 14)
Cross-border Notification and age verification • •
distance sale of system (Art. 16)
tobacco products
(Art. 16)
Novel tobacco Duty of notification, stricter • • •
products (Art. 17) labeling and ingredient
regulation (Art. 17)
Nicotine-containing Subject NCP above a certain • •
products (Art. 18) nicotine threshold to the
medicinal products legislation,
and the remaining NCP to
labeling requirements (Art. 18)
Herbal products Health warnings (Art. 19) • •
(Art. 19)
The results of the preliminary crime risk assessment (PCRA) highlighted a high
risk that banning menthol and banning slim cigarettes may increase ITTP crimes
(Table 17.9). Both of them were included in the extended crime risk assessment.
While some of the new measures have a low ITTP Crime Risk Probability, the
PCRA did not determine the ITTP Crime Risk Probability for other provisions since
there was still a lack of scientific evidence and/or a lack of clarity on the implemen-
tation of the measures through delegated acts.
17 Crime Proofing of Legislation in Practice… 281
The PCRA identified the banning of menthol and slim cigarettes as having a high
probability of creating unintended crime opportunities in the tobacco market. In
order to assess the possible impact on crime, perpetrators, victims and costs,
Transcrime carried out a collateral study (Caneppele, Savona, & Aziani, 2013).
Since both policy options adopted the same measure (ban), that could have pro-
duced similar effects (eliminating the availability of menthol and slim cigarettes),
the extended crime risk assessment will be carried out jointly.
282 S. Caneppele
Globally, no country has adopted a ban on slim cigarettes. In regard to menthol ciga-
rettes, only Brazil banned all flavours and additives in tobacco products (Framework
Convention Alliance, 2012), but the impact of this decision on ITTP is still unknown
because the Brazilian law will come into force by September 2013. On the other
hand, the USA initially considered banning menthol cigarettes, but then discarded
this option. According to the US Government, ‘the sudden withdrawal from the
market of products to which so many millions of people are addicted would be dan-
gerous. First, there could be significant health risks to many of these individuals.
Second, it is possible that our health care system would be overwhelmed by treat-
ment demands […]. Third, the agency also believes that, given the strength of the
addiction and the resulting difficulty of quitting tobacco use, a black market and
smuggling would develop to supply smokers with these products. It also seems
likely that any black market products would be even more dangerous than those
currently marketed, in that they could contain even higher levels of tar, nicotine, and
toxic additives’ (United States Trade Representative, 2010, 7).
Consequently, there is no information and data available on the actual impact of
banning menthol and/or slim cigarettes on the ITTP. Therefore Transcrime devel-
oped a study to estimate the impact of menthol and slim cigarette ban on the ITTP.
17 Crime Proofing of Legislation in Practice… 283
The assessment is based on the abovementioned study (see Caneppele et al., 2013),
and on general criminological assumptions about the likely evolution of (a) crime
risks, (b) characteristics of perpetrators, (c) characteristics of victims (e.g. tobacco
growers, tobacco manufactures, tobacco retailers, tobacco consumers) and (d) crime
costs/harms.
Crime
Would the amount of risk vary? The study suggested that the ITTP risk was likely
to increase especially in those countries where menthol and slim cigarettes were
highly popular. There was evidence that a proportion of menthol and slim con-
sumers would have moved to the ITTP, since there would be no alternative. The
growing demand for menthol and slim cigarettes would have generated an illicit
supply of menthol and slim FMC. Transcrime study found that the increase in the
17 Crime Proofing of Legislation in Practice… 285
level of the ITTP could have ranged between 2.9 and 5.1 % as a consequence of
the ban on menthol cigarettes, and between 11.15 and 16.95 % because of the ban
on slim cigarettes. Therefore the total increase would have been between 14.0 and
22.1 %. Apparently, the most affected countries would have been those near the
Eastern EU border, where the ITTP was already flourishing (European Commission,
2011; OLAF, 2012; EurActiv.com, 2013). Transcrime study showed that if the
bans on menthol and slim cigarettes were adopted, 12 out of 28 EU member states
would have been seriously affected by the growth of the ITTP (Fig. 17.1). The
significant ITTP growth across Eastern EU borders may have jeopardised the
efforts made by the European Commission to counter the phenomenon (European
Commission, 2011).
How would the risk of detection vary while engaging in the ITTP? The probable
increase in the levels of ITTP as a reaction to the banning of menthol and slim FMC
was likely to impact on the risk of detection. EU seizures of tobacco products were
relatively stable since 2005, and amounted to approximately 7–8 % of the estimated
illicit market (OLAF, 2012). According to Transcrime estimates, the banning of
menthol and slim cigarettes would have generated between 8.2 and 17.8 billion
extra illicit cigarettes per year. Without an increase in law enforcement resources
and capacities, this could have meant a possible drop in the incidence of EU sei-
zures over the estimated illicit market up to 5–6 %. Indeed, in an overall context of
budgetary constraints, it would have been difficult to envisage an increase in law
enforcement resources to prevent and police the ITTP increase. Therefore, EU
member states would have been unable to tackle the increased risks of growth by the
ITTP with a comparable increase in law enforcement. The ITTP’s growth would
have been concentrated along the Eastern EU border, which may have generated
further problems in terms of corruption of border police and customs officers
(European Commission, 2011). As result, the risk of detection for criminals would
have declined.
286 S. Caneppele
Table 17.8 Crime risks arising from novel tobacco products, nicotine-containing products, herbal
products
Duty of notification, stricter ingredient and labeling regulation for novel tobacco
products (Art. 17)
Envisaged crime risks Crime risk probability
Novel tobacco products should LOW—The probability of these behaviours occurring appears
comply with duty of to be scarce, at least in the short run. In fact, advertising
notification and with the same limitations on tobacco products seem to prevent from
limits imposed for ingredients successfully launching new products on a large scale in a
and labeling regulation. This relatively short time
could prevent tobacco
manufacturers from releasing
in Europe new tobacco
products which could be
counterfeit and/or smuggled
from outside EU
Subject NCP above a certain nicotine threshold to the medicinal product legislation and
the remaining NCP to labeling requirements (Art. 18)
Envisaged crime risks Crime risk probability
Products above a certain IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE—NCP (in particular
nicotine threshold, which e-cigarettes) represent an emerging and fluid market, not yet
would require medical regulated by strict rules, which grew out of the anti-smoking
authorisation, may be legislation. The existence of an illicit market seems to emerge
excluded from the legal from some police operations carried out in Italy which
market and therefore favour seized—in the first part of 2013—more than 11 thousand of
the growth of an ITTP market e-cig kits and 692 refillers which did not report, fully or
for NCP partially, the required labels (La Stampa, 2013). The growth of
ITTP crime risks will depend also on how many NCP products
are authorised. In the meantime, several European
governments decided to take action against the e-cig (see for
example (Briggs, 2013; Sparks, 2013)). For all those reasons
and owing to the absence of information, it is currently
impossible to determine the level of ITTP NCP risks created
by the proposed directive
Health warnings on herbal products(Art. 19)
Envisaged crime risks Crime risk probability
Transfer of the increased LOW—The probability of these behaviours occurring appears
labeling production costs to limited since the labeling cost is low
final consumer may increase
retail prices, thereby boosting
the ITTP in some member
states
How will the expected profits vary for the perpetrators of the ITTP? The tobacco
market has a dual nature because it consists of a legitimate and an illegitimate part.
The banning of menthol and slim cigarettes would remove only the legitimate sup-
ply. Profits for illicit traders would increase as a result of a monopolistic position
which would enable them to determine prices without considering the legal bench-
marks. According to Transcrime study, the yearly expected extra profits can be esti-
mated at between €0.4 and €1.3 billion.
17 Crime Proofing of Legislation in Practice… 287
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Czech Republic
Netherlands
Germany
Lithuania
Romania
Belgium
Bulgaria
Denmark
Estonia
Hungary
Slovakia
Slovenia
Finland
Poland
Portugal
Sweden
Austria
France
Greece
Ireland
Latvia
Spain
Italy
UK
Fig. 17.1 Estimated increase of ITTP market resulting from the combined effect of the ban of
menthol and slim cigarettes. Source: Caneppele, Aziani and Savona (2013)
288 S. Caneppele
Consequently, the envisaged bans are likely to increase significantly the ITTP’s
expected profits, as a result of higher returns on both menthol and slim cigarettes.
Perpetrators
Would the number of perpetrators vary? Increased levels of ITTP were likely to
create new opportunities for getting involved. The overall number of people actively
involved in the trade would probably increase. According to the latest estimates the
current number of ITTP perpetrators could vary between 100,000 and 150,000 peo-
ple (Transcrime, 2015). However, it would not have been possible to provide a clear
estimation of the growth.
How would the complexity of the organisational structure of ITTP vary? In the
case of menthol cigarettes, the ban envisaged would have a low impact on the com-
plexity of the organisational structure required to engage in the ITTP, since the
manufacturing of menthol cigarettes is similar to that of non-mentholated cigarettes
and does not require any special equipment. As already pointed out, ‘menthol may
be added at any of the following stages; spraying onto the final blend, through addi-
tion to the filter via a thread, or by application to the cigarette paper or the foil used
to wrap the cigarettes’ (European Commission, 2012b, 15).
In the case of slim cigarettes, the ban envisaged would have a limited impact on
the complexity of the organisational structure required to engage in the ITTP, since
the manufacturing of slim cigarettes requires minimal technical adaptations to the
standard tobacco machineries. Indeed, criminal investigations proved that ITTP per-
petrators were already engaged in the market (Ahec, 2012).
How would the individual skills/knowledge required for the ITTP vary? The bans
envisaged would have a limited impact on the individual skills required to engage in
the ITTP, since the manufacturing of menthol cigarettes is similar to that of non-
mentholated cigarettes, and manufacturing slim cigarettes requires minimal techni-
cal adaptation to the standard tobacco machinery.
Victims
Would the number of victims (namely, consumers) vary? The risk of increased levels
of ITTP implies that the number of consumers of illicit tobacco products may
increase. The only studies available on consumers’ attitudes to the banning of slim
(in Romania) and menthol (in Poland and in Finland) cigarettes revealed a similar
pattern, although with some limitations1 (Coelho & Arink, 2013; Coelho & Moore,
2013). If the bans were approved, 42 % of slim and between 51 % (Poland) and 75 %
(Finland) of menthol consumers would buy their products on the illicit market. In
the case of menthol cigarettes alone, this would mean that approximately 10 % of
1
In both studies, the experiments gave only the alternative between buying licit or illicit slim/
menthol cigarettes. They did not consider the hypothesis that a ban would induce some consumers
to quit smoking.
17 Crime Proofing of Legislation in Practice… 289
Polish consumers would move to the illicit market. Moreover, legitimate market
operators, especially the retail sector, are likely to be seriously damaged by the
availability of illicit products, which cannot be sold in the legal market.
How would the socio-demographic characteristics of victims-consumers vary?
Logically, menthol and slim FMC consumers will be most affected by the bans.
Unfortunately, there are no available studies on the socio-demographic characteris-
tics of European menthol and slim cigarette smokers. Therefore, owing to the lack
of available studies in the field, it is currently impossible to determine how the
characteristics of victims would vary.
Would the amount of victims/legal persons vary? As already mentioned, upstream
and downstream distributors would have been affected by the increase in ITTP as
consequence of the menthol and slim ban, since a part of their income may be trans-
ferred to illicit suppliers. As already noted, the increase would have not been the
same in all the EU countries, so that a significant impact was expected only where
menthol and slim cigarettes were popular.
Costs/Harm
Would the total cost of the crime vary? Surprisingly, only one study focused also on
the impact that menthol and slim bans would have on the illicit side of the tobacco
market (RolandBerger, 2013). This study argued that a combination of menthol and
slim bans together with the pack standardisation measures would generate high job
losses (from 70,000 to 175,000) and a strong drop in tax revenue (from €2.2 billion
to €5.0 billion). Moreover, the study foresaw a strong increase in illicit trade (25–
55 %) which would entail higher costs for law enforcement staff and a decrease in
the expected contraction in smoking prevalence, as well as an increase in the health
risks for smokers because counterfeit cigarettes were more dangerous (Levinson,
2011). Transcrime study, focusing on the ban of menthol and slim cigarettes, argued
that it seemed likely that, at least in the short-medium term, the levels of ITTP
would significantly rise in several European countries to meet the increased demand
for menthol and slim tobacco products. It estimated that EU MSs would lose tax
revenues amounting to between €1.082 and €2.259 billion per year due to the illicit
sales of menthol and slim FMC.
How would private costs for victims vary? As already mentioned, some illicit
products, such as ‘illicit whites’ and counterfeits, were frequently reported to be
significantly more dangerous to smokers’ health (Center for Regulatory Effectiveness,
2011; Levinson, 2011). Therefore, the banning of menthol and slim cigarettes would
generate higher health costs. In addition, the increased ITTP would significantly
affect legitimate tobacco growers (Polskie Radio, 2013), tobacco manufacturers,
and the retail sector, with the risk of lower revenues, loss of employment and
reduced fiscal revenues.
How would social costs vary? The actual impact on social costs of the menthol
and slim ban would depend on the actual increase in the ITTP. According to the
RolandBerger (2013), which also accounted for packaging standardisation, ITTP
290 S. Caneppele
would increase by 25–55 %, so that social costs would be remarkable in terms of job
losses and lost tax revenues. Transcrime study estimated that a menthol and slim
ban could seriously impact on the European legitimate tobacco market with an ITTP
growth by 14.1–22.1 %. In particular, the social costs would not be homogeneously
distributed. Eastern countries and Poland in particular, would suffer disproportion-
ate costs compared with those of the other EU member states.
The ECRA on the banning of menthol and slim cigarettes was supported by a col-
lateral study (see Caneppele et al., 2013). Notwithstanding data and studies limita-
tions, the assessment on menthol and slim bans suggested that:
– A ban on menthol cigarettes would increase the level of the ITTP in Europe by
between 2.9 and 5.1 %.
– A ban on slim cigarettes would increase the level of the ITTP in Europe by
between 11.2 and 17.0 %.
– In Europe, the total ITTP increase would be between 14.1 and 22.1 %.
– The yearly expected extra profits for ITTP perpetrators could be estimated at
between €0.4 and €1.3 billion (for both menthol and slim cigarettes).
– EU MSs would lose yearly tax revenues amounting to between €1.1 and €2.3 bil-
lion due to the illicit sales of menthol and slim cigarettes.
– The social costs of ITTP crime would not be homogeneously distributed. Eastern
countries and Poland in particular would suffer disproportionate costs compared
with those of other EU member states.
Conclusions
This chapter presented a case study on crime proofing of legislation. The application
to the Tobacco products Directive proposal revealed that some provisions, namely
the ban on menthol and slim cigarettes, would significantly increase the crime risks
of an enlargement of the illicit market. Eventually, the European Parliament did not
vote for the ban of slim cigarettes which—according to the analysis—would play a
key role in increasing ITTP risks. On the other hand, the entry into force of the men-
thol ban was also planned only after a phase-out period of 4 years.
It is impossible to say whether and how much this study persuaded European regu-
lators. However, this exercise proved the relevance of the CPL methodology in crime
prevention. Unfortunately, the impact assessment studies conducted in preparation of
new EU directives did not consider properly the criminal impact. Generally, deficien-
cies in the social impact analysis (which include crime) have also been highlighted by
the Impact Assessment Board (IAB). The IAB observed in its most recent report that
‘[d]espite the Board’s previous recommendations to thoroughly assess social impacts
17 Crime Proofing of Legislation in Practice… 291
the Board notes that there has been no progress in the initial assessments of these
impacts’ (2013, 27). Incorporating CPL in the policy cycle would make policy mak-
ers aware of the unintended criminal opportunities. It would also support them and
their decisions, providing a wider set of information on crime risks.
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Chapter 18
A New Victorian Era: Getting Crime Out
of Commercial Sex
Introduction
Approaches to social crimes differ widely around the world, with different cultures apply-
ing their own standards of what is, or is not, acceptable behaviour. This chapter explores
one type of social crime—commercial sex—and the effects of decriminalisation in the
state of Victoria, Australia. We ask how successful is decriminalisation in preventing the
criminality associated with commercial sex and whether decriminalisation will prevent or
increase such criminality.
In Australia, the states and territories have been changing their outlook on the
sale of sexual services (sex work), those who sell these services (sex workers) and
their working environment (brothels). As a multi-jurisdictional federation, there is
little consistency to the changes or how commercial sex is treated by the law and
police. For example, in the Australian Capital Territory and Victoria licenced broth-
els have operated for decades, while at the other end of the scale brothels in
Tasmania and South Australia remain criminalised. Even jurisdictions which have
taken a path toward the decriminalisation of sex work—in effect, preventing crime
by abolishing it—have many regulatory and criminal offences remaining on the
statutes books.
Decriminalisation is not legalisation. In Victoria, decriminalisation has created
additional regulatory offences for sex work, while retaining many of the criminal
offences associated with procuring, human trafficking, child exploitation and organised
A. Masters (*)
Transnational Research Institute on Corruption, The Australian National University,
22 University Avenue, Acton, ACT 2601, Australia
e-mail: adam.masters@anu.edu.au
A. Graycar
School of Social & Policy Studies, Flinders University,
GPO Box 2100, Adelaide, South Australia 5001, Australia
Table 18.1 Historic legislation used for the control of prostitution in Victoria
Act Powers or offences
Vagrancy Act 1852 Arrest and detention for no lawful means of support
The Criminal Law and s.44 an offence ‘by force take away or detain her against her will
Practice Statute 1864 any woman of any age with intent to marry or carnally know
her’. See s.51
Conservation of Public Compelled prostitutes to be medically examined. Those found to
Health Act 1878 be diseased were sent to Lock Hospitals for confinement
Crimes Act 1891 s.14 and s.15 outlawed the procuring of adult women
Police Offences Act 1891 s.7(2) Importuning in a public place
Police Offences Act 1891 s.5 Living off earnings
(1907 amendments) s.6 Keeping a brothel
Police Offences Act 1891 s.26 Soliciting
(1928 amendments) s.30 Prostitutes assembling in ‘refreshment houses’
s.69(2) Prostitutes behaving riotously in public places
s.79 Pimping
s.80 Brothel keeping
Police Offences Act 1940 s.3 Criminalised single-woman brothels
Police Offences Act (1961 s.3 Loitering for the purposes of prostitution
amendment)
Crimes Act 1958 s.59 Procuring offences
Summary Offences Act 1966 s.18 Solicit or accost any person … loiter in a public place
(prostitute)
s.18A Loiter in or frequent any public place for the purposes of
inviting or soliciting any person to prostitute him/herself for
pecuniary reward (client)
Vagrancy Act 1966 s.10(1) Living off earnings of prostitution
s.11(1) Keeping or managing a brothel
s.12 Occupier permit premises to be used for prostitution
Source: Summarised from Perkins, 1991, Chap. 2
1977–1984 (Neave, 1985, vol. II, 38); 1984/1985–1988/1989 (Perkins, 1991: 125;
Pinto et al., 1990); 1984–2013 (VicPol, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991,
1992, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004,
2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 inclusive).1 What is immedi-
ately apparent is the sharp decline in charges laid by police for activities related to
sex work in the past 35 years. The number of charges laid in 2012/2013 (n = 149) is
more than 90 % fewer than those laid in the peak year of 1980 (=1728), while the
lowest year, 2010/11 (n = 81), is less than 5 % of the 1980 peak.
A disease, public agitation, two inquiries and two pieces of legislation framed the
first steps toward decriminalising the sex industry in Victoria. The early 1980s saw
the spread of the human immunodeficiency virus, otherwise known as the acquired
immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS). What had largely been ignored as a
problem for male gay community and intravenous drug users was now a public
health issue—and commercial sex work represented a potential high risk (Frances,
2007; Perkins, 1991). At the same time, both street prostitution and brothels had
spread into residential areas, which led to the formation of a resident lobby group
Westaction (Perkins, 1991: 111). As a result of the lobbying, a working party was
established by the Victorian Parliament to investigate the location of brothels. This
working party produced two significant outcomes. The first was the Planning
(Brothels) Act 1984 (Vic) that established a permit system and regulatory frame-
work for decriminalising brothels in certain areas. The act delegated the authority to
issue permits to local councils. The second was the establishment of the Inquiry into
Prostitution.
Chaired by Marcia Neave, the Inquiry Into Prostitution was given the following
terms of reference:
1. To inquire into and report upon the social, legal and health aspects of prostitution
in all its forms insofar as those matters are relevant to the powers and functions
of the Victorian Parliament and Government.
2. In reporting to the government the inquiry shall amongst other things:
(a) Examine the implications of the various alternative actions available to the
government with respect to all parties involved in prostitution with particular
reference to the implications of decriminalisation and legalisation thereof.
(b) Consider other inquiries relevant to prostitution.
1
Note: Perkins data for 1986/1987–1988/1989 contained a category ‘other’ these were zero, nine
and three charges laid for the respective years. These have been included in the ‘aiding and abet-
ting’ category in Fig. 18.1. Furthermore, Perkin’s categories ‘soliciting for immoral purposes;
soliciting/accost for prostitution; and loiter/soliciting by prostitutes’ have all been included under
our category of ‘street offences’ in Fig. 18.1.
298 A. Masters and A. Graycar
(c) Consider the relevant law and practice in relation to prostitution elsewhere.
(d) Have regard to the reports of the Interdepartmental Monitoring Committee
relating to the Planning (Brothels) Act 1984.
3. In consideration of the above matters to recommend to the Victorian Government
as to whether existing laws and town planning practices require amendment and
to recommend on other measures necessary and desirable with respect to prosti-
tution in Victoria (Neave, 1985: v).
The inquiry eventually made 91 recommendations and identified three policy
options. Essentially the options were to retain criminal penalties for prostitution-
related offences; repeal the criminal penalties (decriminalisation); or regulate pros-
titution (legalisation). The inquiry recommended a combination of repeal and
regulate—repeal penalties for most prostitution related offences (yet retaining pen-
alties for street prostitution); regulate brothels via town planning and licence opera-
tors to exclude criminals (Neave, 1985: 8–9). As a result the parliament eventually
passed the Prostitution Regulation Act 1986 (Vic).
For those in the sex work industry the new legislation was problematic to say
the least. The Prostitutes’ Collective of Victoria claimed at a forum arranged by the
Australian Institute of Criminology (AIC) the Prostitution Regulation Act ‘failed
to meet its stated objectives and should be viewed as a lesson in defective policy
making and how to avoid it’ (Dobinson, 1992: 117). Legal problems for sex work-
ers were both exacerbated and new problems created. Much of this related to the
limited number of licenced brothels under the new regime. Estimates made to the
Neave Inquiry placed the number of brothels in the state at around 120 with an
additional 37 escort agencies, employing between them 1800–2300 of the then
3000–4000 sex workers in the state (Neave, 1985: 47). By the time the Prostitution
Regulation Act gained royal assent, only 42 brothels were licenced under the
Planning (Brothels) Act. This left the majority of sex workers outside the ‘legal-
ised’ sphere of licenced brothels. Furthermore, discriminatory and punitive
employment practices by brothel licencees (e.g. a system of fines for minor rule
infractions; loss of choice in clients; inflexible working hours) meant illegal sex
work was more profitable (Dobinson, 1992: 118). Yet it was not only the sex work-
ers who believed the legislation failed.
The Victorian Brothel Association also made contributed to the AIC forum. By
this stage, the Association represented 64 legal brothel owners. For these owners,
the Planning (Brothels) Act resulted in higher cost pressures associated with com-
pliance, competition from the illegal industry, trading hour restrictions and an
employment cap. The last point meant that legal brothels only employed 2000 of the
then estimated 6000 sex workers in Melbourne (Richardson, 1992). Another result
of the two prostitution acts was a redeployment of police resources, with the
Melbourne Vice Squad reduced to three or four members, who had little time to visit
the licenced brothels, let alone act in relation to the unlicenced ones (Richardson,
1992). From these perspectives, the early years of decriminalisation in Victoria
amounted to little improvement.
18 A New Victorian Era: Getting Crime Out of Commercial Sex 299
Fig. 18.2 Geographic distribution of legal brothels (boundary in red). dark blue, metropolitan,
shaded, rural. Source: prepared by authors
Planning (Brothels) Act was passed. The effect of this veto power is that legalised
brothels have remained principally within the metropolitan areas of Victoria. Of the
96 licenced brothels operating today, two are in Geelong and the remainder are in
Melbourne (RhED, 2014). While the total has fluctuated over the years, the model of
two in Geelong and the remainder in Melbourne is unchanged since the Neave
Inquiry (1985: 152). Rural community resistance was noted by Neave with visits to
Geelong, Shepparton and Morwell, all places known to have brothels operating at the
time. During town meetings locals opposed decriminalisation. Neave noted that
these meetings were heavily attended by religious groups (Neave, 1985: 35–36).
Figure 18.2 shows the current geographic distribution of the legal brothels in Victoria.
Discussion
The previous sections briefly detailed three decades of reform and decriminalisation
in the Victorian sex industry. This section analyses the legal industry created by
these reforms against the criteria developed by Levi and Dorn (2006) for the assess-
ment of regulations applicable to corporate managers and auditors (Table 18.2).
Where necessary, our analysis draws on some vignettes of cases and alternative
approaches from other jurisdictions.
18 A New Victorian Era: Getting Crime Out of Commercial Sex 301
Table 18.2 Summary of 18 draft criteria for legislative/regulatory crime risk assessment
Quality of the text Vulnerability of the market Attraction/repulsion
1. Low level of clarity of 7. Discretionary power or 13. The proposed changes will be
the text itself responsibility for com- widely publicised (considering
2. Complexity when con- pliance put on officials/ that knowledge of a change is a
sidered alongside exist- agents prerequisite to exploiting it)
ing regulations 8. Creation of or increase in 14. The proposed change is in a
3. Difficult or time con- conflicts of interest for field in which/adjacent to which
suming to apply in officials and/or agents criminals are already active
everyday practice (current and future) 15. The methods required to exploit
(trader opinion) 9. Lack of requirement the vulnerabilities listed in col-
4. Rule unlikely to be for rotation of official/ umn 2 are within the existing
robust in the face of on- agents competencies of many
the-spot challenge 10. Lack of requirements criminals
(enforcer opinion) for guidelines on how 16. Those crime methods do not
5. Uncertain justiciability officials/agents should require complicated crime proj-
(legal opinion) discharge their duties ect teams or technologies
6. There are easier ways 11. Lack of requirements for 17. Those methods are skills pos-
of attaining the same effective supervision sessed by at least some poten-
policy objectives 12. Lack of back-up by law tial entrants (as key informants
enforcement (criminal report)
or administrative) 18. Potential/actual perpetrators’
values are not seriously vio-
lated by either targets or meth-
ods of crime (as key informants
report)
Source: Levi & Dorn, 2006: 242
Quality of the text refers to the refers to the clarity, consistency, comprehensibility
and accessibility of legislation or regulatory text to the users, not the drafters (Levi
& Dorn, 2006). The decriminalisation of brothels required a significant increase in
the amount of legislation to differentiate between legal and illegal brothels and to
establish a system of licencing. Over the years, the original legislation—Prostitu-
tion Regulation Act 1986 (Vic) grew from 43 to 81 pages as the Prostitution Control
Act 1994 (Vic), and eventually settled at over 200 pages in the current form—the
Sex Work Act 1994 (Vic). The 80+ criminal and regulatory offences associated with
sex work in Victoria are listed in Appendix, which also indicates to whom these
offences are applicable. While the offences appear relatively straightforward there
remain numerous complicating factors. For example, the offence of living on the
earnings of a sex worker under s.10(1) excludes licence holders and those ‘that do
not hold a relevant position (whether in his or her own right or on behalf of any
other person) in the sex work service providing business or exercise a significant
influence over or with respect to the management or operation of that business’.
Applying Levi and Dorn’s (2006, 239) clarity test, the lay practitioner could easily
believe that the life partners and children of street sex workers and those in unli-
cenced brothels may still be guilty of the offence. Despite only 18 charges being
302 A. Masters and A. Graycar
laid in the past 2 years for earnings related offences (Vicpol, 2012, 2013), the text
remains unclear.
Levi and Dorn pose two questions to consider when comparing the complexity
of new regulations to the old. First are the new rules (i.e. the current version of the
Sex Work Act) consistent with their predecessors. Second are the number of regu-
lations small enough not to overwhelm practitioners and regulators. On the first,
the rules are reasonably consistent, reflecting an evolution of the law as problems
are identified and addressed. For example, while children generally are not per-
mitted on licenced premises or premises used for sex work (s.11A), an exception
has been made for those less than 18 months old. This represented a balanced
change to the law to accommodate the needs of self-employed sex workers who
are also parents of young infants2 and illustrated reasonable consistency between
the new and the old.
However, on the second question, the number of regulations can overwhelm
practitioners and regulators alike. For example, council officers charged with con-
trol of licenced and unlicenced brothels faced complex evidential requirements to
tackle the illegal side of the industry. Several councils found the only way to gather
evidence in a timely fashion was to hire private investigators to engage in commer-
cial sex at illegal brothels (Lucas, 2007a). Without this tactic, Councils were forced
to give 2 days’ notice before an inspection (Lucas, 2007b). This complexity flowed
into Levi and Dorn’s next criterion and demonstrated the difficult and time-
consuming measures required to prove the operation of an illegal brothel.
The difficulties of on-the-spot challenges and uncertainty in justiciability to con-
trolling illegal brothels from a legislative point of view is most aptly underscored by
the presence of a massage parlour that operated as an illegal brothel within view of
the headquarters of Consumer Affairs Victoria (CAV), the state government depart-
ment responsible for regulating sex work. First reported in the media in September
2007 (Moor, 2007), the illegal brothel was still operating 12 months later (Moor,
2008). In 2010, a legislative change prompted by this resulted in an increased num-
ber of brothel keeping charges being preferred (Table 18.3). The change clarified
exactly which agency was responsible for controlling illegal brothels. Victoria
Police were given new powers of entry and responsibility for investigating illegal
brothels; the Sex Work Act made CAV responsible for regulating licenced brothels;
and councils remained responsible for planning permits (Delacorn et al., 2011).
While Table 18.3 shows a jump in brothel keeping offences in 2011/2012 and
2012/2013, this jump is more likely associated with the Victoria Police forming a
Sex Industry Unit, which effectively re-created the Vice Squad, previously dis-
banded in 1999.
From the practitioners’ (i.e. sex worker) point of view, Frances (2007, 275)
explained that ‘although these laws have been in operation for over a decade, the
2
Care needs to be applied to terms such as ‘infant’ when researching sex work in Australia. In the
Northern Territory sex work-related legislation refers to persons less than 18 years of age as
infants.
Table 18.3 Sex Work Offence: Charges laid in Victoria 2003/2004–2012/2013
Offence category 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 Total
Street work 285 488 325 182 73 84 110 29 54 35 1665
Client 40 64 41 19 23 9 14 34 92 73 409
Brothel keeping 6 38 5 8 4 7 0 7 25 20 120
Procuring 6 11 15 21 17 10 11 4 6 2 103
Earnings 1 5 5 4 6 4 1 2 12 6 46
On premises 3 1 9 4 1 3 1 5 3 13 43
Advertising 0 0 3 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 6
Brothel work n/a since 1984
Total sex 341 607 403 239 124 119 137 81 192 149 2392
work-related
18 A New Victorian Era: Getting Crime Out of Commercial Sex
offences
Source: Compiled by authors from Victoria Police Crime Statistics
303
304 A. Masters and A. Graycar
The devolution of controlling part of the sex industry to local government- and
state-based agencies shifted discretionary power and responsibility for compliance
from the police. By the mid-2000s, a multitude of agencies had overlapping respon-
sibility for criminal and regulatory control of sex work. Local government councils
ensured licencees complied with planning laws and responded to constituent com-
plaints. Conflict of interest existed where council officers inspected both legal and
illegal brothels. Furthermore, budgetary measures restricted council ability to rotate
these inspectors. At the state level, Victoria Police retained powers in relation to
criminalised activity associated with the sex industry, including state offences
related to sexual servitude. CAV was responsible for compliance with licencing
regulations. At the federal level, the Australian Federal Police investigated sexual
servitude offences and the Department of Immigration and Citizenship had respon-
sibility for ensuring visa compliance (Joint Committee on the Australian Crime
Commission, 2002; Segrave, 2009). As can be seen in Fig. 18.1 and Table 18.3,
there is a steady decline in police activity in relation to the state laws on prostitution.
Enforcement of brothel keeping offences was at a minimum when local council
inspectors policed both legal and illegal brothels while state and federal police have
focused their attention on sexual servitude, immigration and human trafficking
offences associated with the sex industry (see Larsen, et al., 2012; Putt, 2007). The
result of this multi-tiered approach meant that responsibility was often shuffled
between the various government agencies creating vulnerabilities in the market as
described by Levi and Dorn (Table 18.2).
The multi-tiered approach to regulating the sex industry has proven problematic.
Between 2002 and 2010, the Coordinator of Planning Enforcement for Yarra City
Council accepted $134,260 in bribes from the operators of three illegal brothels.
The payments into a gambling account were made in exchange for early warnings
about any impending raids by authorities. This council officer, had been involved in
the investigation of other illegal brothels, investigations which included local, state
and federal authorities—each with a different role in policing the legal and illegal
sex industry (McKenzie & Beck, 2011c; 2011b). Furthermore, the investigation
revealed federal agencies had intelligence about the corrupt officer as early as 2002
(McKenzie & Beck, 2011c). One of the bribers operated both legal and illegal
brothels, which placed the council officer in contact with them as part of their duties,
thus highlighting the vulnerability of certain high risk functions to corruption
18 A New Victorian Era: Getting Crime Out of Commercial Sex 305
(Gorta, 2006: 209-10).3 The bribed council officer had a high profile in fighting
illegal brothels, having testified before a Commonwealth Parliamentary Committee
on the issue (Joint Committee on the Australian Crime Commission, 2002). The
evidence furnished to the parliamentary committee by this officer and others out-
lined how the policy decision to decriminalise brothels in Victoria had led to unin-
tended consequences. The consequences included an increase in the number of
illegal brothels under the cover of the legal ones and confusion as to which level of
government was responsible for what under the new arrangements (Joint Committee
on the Australian Crime Commission, 2002). Ironically, the council officer was
directly asked whether he had heard of illegal brothels being tipped off before
raids—to which he answered ‘no…’ (Joint Committee on the Australian Crime
Commission, 2002: 10). The scale of the bribery for a single official is indicative of
the illegal profits being generated by the unregulated sex industry.
The case of the Yarra Council inspector highlighted a period of extreme market
vulnerability. Inspectors had a conflict of interest in trying to control both legal and
illegal brothels at the same time. Councils with limited budgets were not in a posi-
tion to rotate or effectively supervise their officials; thus this particular inspector
was left vulnerable to an environment whereby the same activity—sex work—was
legal in one place and illegal literally next door. Finally, as the Yarra Council inspec-
tor pointed out to the parliamentary committee, local officials were not backed up
by law enforcement at either state or federal level.
Attraction/Repulsion
Since 1984, changes to the laws on sex work have been widely publicised as the
Victorian legislature sought to balance conflicting social values. A search of the
Factiva ™ database of the two most popular Victorian newspaper—The Age and the
Herald Sun—shows that since 1992, there have been 180 reports related to illegal
brothels. Our analysis of these reports shows that 84 of these are predominantly
concerned with the policy debate. Naturally, press coverage tends to peak as changes
are debated, proposed and implemented.
Since aspects of the commercial sex were criminalised, organised crime groups
have been active in the field (Neave, 1985; Costigan, 1984; Perkins, 1991). Criminal
groups involved in the illegal side of the Victorian sex industry possess the methods
and competencies to exploit the vulnerabilities listed in the second column of
3
It is worth noting that this council officer falls into 8 of 15 high-risk functions identified by Gorta
(2006: 209-10). These are ‘(1) Inspecting, regulating or monitoring the standards of premises,
businesses, equipment or products; (2). Providng a service to new immigrants [in this case sex-
workers]; (3) Issuing qualifications or licences to indicate their proficiency or enable them to
undertake certain types of activities; (4) Providing a service to the community where demand fre-
quently exceeds supply; … (6) Issuing, or reviewing the issue of, fines or other sanctions; … (10)
Making determinations/handing down judgements about individuals or disputes; … (12) Having
discretion concerning land re-zoning or development applications; … (15) Having regular deal-
ings with the private sector other than for the routine purchasing of goods and services’.
306 A. Masters and A. Graycar
Table 18.2. These methods are often uncomplicated, requiring neither teams nor
technology to apply. Besides utilising bribery as a tool to subvert law enforcement,
at least one illegal operator used the cover of their licenced brothel to operate a
chain of unlicenced ones (McKenzie & Beck, 2011a). Where complexity exists—
i.e. the knowledge required to bypass or exploit federal migration laws in cases
where illegal brothels use human trafficking networks as a source of sex workers—
methodologies are already well known in the region and the groups are sufficiently
flexible to respond to legislative or changes in enforcement practices (Larsen et al.,
2012; Putt, 2007; Yea, 2012). These criminal groups will go to extremes to protect
their business—in one instance a young man attempting to ‘rescue’ a sex slave was
killed in front of a brothel (McKenzie & Beck, 2011a) and in another, a man and
wife involved in the industry were murdered in their home (Silvester et al., 2003).
Thus those wishing to enter Victoria’s illicit sex trade may find themselves chal-
lenged by the murderous lengths already employed by existing players.
On Levi and Dorn’s final point, for those involved in the illegal side of Victoria’s
sex industry their values are not seriously violated by the methods they choose to
meet the demand side of the market. In 1975, Victoria Police estimated there were
100 massage parlours operating as brothels in the state (VicPol, 1975, 12). Their
estimate increased to 150 the following year (VicPol, 1976, 55). Since decriminali-
sation of brothels was first introduced, the estimated number of illegal brothels has
always been significantly greater than the licenced variety. Neave (1985, 47) esti-
mated there were 3000–4000 sex workers, mostly working in 120 brothels in
Victoria. In 1992, there were 64 licenced brothels employing approximately 2000 of
the estimated 6000 sex workers in the state (Richardson, 1992, 136). In 2004, ‘the
sex-worker industry in Victoria is comprised of: about 2000 workers for 400 illegal
brothels; 500 street workers, 5000 sole traders; 1600 workers in about 90 legal
brothels; and 400 escorts working for 20 agencies’ (Lamperd, 2004). By 2010,
operators reported about 400 illegal brothels, a number conflicting with sex workers
who indicated there were only about 140, and prostitution enforcement officers esti-
mating there were 67 (Moor, 2010). In a submission to CAV in May 2014, the
Australian Adult Entertainment Industry Inc. repeated the estimate of 400 illegal
brothels in the state in a submission to CAV (Albon, 2014). Their calculation is
based on the number of advertisements for ‘massage therapy outlets’ in suburban
papers. While the estimates are not official figures they are the best available. The
reduction in overall sex work-related charges (Fig. 18.1) are in stark contrast to the
increased number of illegal brothels. It can reasonably be concluded that the illegal
industry has significantly expanded in the wake of decriminalisation.
Conclusion
The policy choice to decriminalise sex work in Victoria has clearly reduced some
crime related to commercial sex, but has had unintended effects elsewhere. These
effects include an apparent increase in instances of sexual servitude (slavery),
18 A New Victorian Era: Getting Crime Out of Commercial Sex 307
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Part VII
Technologies of Crime Prevention
Chapter 19
Technology, Opportunity, Crime and Crime
Prevention: Current and Evolutionary
Perspectives
Paul Ekblom
The world of crime science and situational crime prevention (SCP) has often drawn
on technology for practical purposes. This will increase as the world in which crime
is committed and prevented becomes ever more technologically based. However,
with some notable exceptions, there has been little attempt to explicitly theorise
about the role of technology in SCP. This chapter seeks to correct this deficiency—to
relate technology to key concepts in SCP, with the aim of giving us a more self-aware
and detached view of what technology is, and how it fits with crime science.
This chapter starts by briefly considering the nature of technology. It then looks
at the relationship between technology, opportunity, problems and solutions. But
opportunity is a more subtle concept than many in the field assume, needing further
development for present purposes. Opportunity is therefore discussed in relation to
both traditional frameworks of crime science and to a more integrated and detailed
counterpart, the Conjunction of Criminal Opportunity. But all the opportunity
I am grateful to Benoit Leclerc for his helpful editing, Richard Wortley and anonymous reviewers
for their inputs to this chapter.
P. Ekblom (*)
Design Against Crime Research Centre, Central Saint Martins, University of the Arts London,
London, UK
Department of Security and Crime Science, UCL, London, UK
Applied Criminology Centre, University of Huddersfield, Huddersfield, UK
e-mail: p.ekblom@csm.arts.ac.uk
Although technology is a rich and complex aspect of human life, somewhat surpris-
ingly, until recently the field has had few theorists of its own. But Mitcham (1979)
identifies four dimensions: artefact (tools, manufactured products etc.), knowledge
(scientific, engineering, technological know-how, plus insight from social and phys-
ical sciences), process (problem-solving, research and development, invention,
innovation), and volition (ethics, technology as social construction). Arthur’s recent
(2009) seminal attempt to provide a theory of technology characterises it on differ-
ent scales: as a means to fulfil a particular human purpose; an assemblage of prac-
tices and purposes; and the entire collection of devices and engineering practices
available to a culture. These levels interact with each other and the entire economy:
“As the collective technology builds, it creates a structure within which decisions
and activities and flows of goods and services takes place.” (p. 194)
For Arthur, technology starts with phenomena—natural effects (e.g. gravitation
or electricity) that exist independently in nature. Technology is organised around
central principles, which are the application of one or more phenomena for some
purpose; principles in turn are expressed in the form of physical or informational
components which are combined, often hierarchically, to meet that purpose.
Technological domains are toolboxes of potential, which are clustered around some
common set of phenomena or applied principles such as movement of mechanical
parts, or of electrons.
These frameworks equally apply to technology in the field of crime and crime
prevention, but need particularisation. Mitcham’s volitional dimension for example
19 Technology, Opportunity, Crime and Crime Prevention: Current and Evolutionary… 321
could include the social institution of crime and the social forces of conflict between
individuals, or between individuals and wider social groups like the state. Arthur
refers to multiple purposes; extending these to the multiple stakeholders that hold
them is especially important in the case of criminal conflicts. As will be seen, these
extensions bestow special qualities on technology in crime and its prevention.
A Focus on Opportunity
Crime science centres on the immediate causes of criminal events and views oppor-
tunity in terms of two related perspectives. In the Rational Choice agenda (Cornish
& Clarke, 1986), an opportunity emerges when the offender perceives risk and
effort as low and reward high. Complementing this psychological approach is the
ecological Routine Activities perspective (Cohen & Felson, 1979) of likely offender
encountering a suitable target in the absence of capable guardians. At a higher eco-
logical level is the opportunity structure (Clarke & Newman, 2006)—the entire
pattern of available opportunities for crime.
At this level there are obvious affinities with Arthur’s “decisions and activities
and flows of goods and services” quoted above. But crime science’s familiar theo-
retical perspectives require some extension and integration to fully and efficiently
engage with technology. Here we discuss “static” aspects of these perspectives;
dynamic and change-related aspects are addressed in later sections.
Rational Choice does not cover prevention that works simply by defeating the
offender1 (e.g. with a massive concrete barrier), or completely designing out the
crime target (e.g. the disappearance of the vehicle tax disc in the UK in 2014 and its
replacement by electronic means of controlling revenue totally obliterated the crime
of forging these discs). Here, any choice has to be exercised at a more strategic level
(“How else can I make some money?”).
Tools and weapons are considered “crime facilitators”, and “control tools/weapons”
appears under “Increase the effort” in the 25 Techniques of SCP (e.g. Clarke & Eck,
2003). However, a direct and explicit theoretical treatment of technology is lacking.
In the “Hot Products” approach (Clarke, 1999) to identification of risk factors for
becoming targets of theft, some of these factors are directly related to technology—
in particular Concealable, Removable, Enjoyable and Disposable. (The same applies
to protective factors, for example those reducing the risk of theft of cell phones
(Whitehead et al., 2008).) Attempts to apply the Hot Products approach in a practi-
cal exercise in crime-proofing of new personal electronic items such as cameras and
phones (Armitage, 2012) revealed difficulties of linking up terms and concepts in
technology and crime science (Ekblom & Sidebottom, 2008).
1
Thanks to Richard Wortley for this point. But it is worth noting that the capabilities technology
brings mean that defeat may rarely be absolute. This is illustrated by the jewel thieves who drilled
through a metre of concrete to reach the safe deposit boxes of London’s Hatton Garden diamond
dealers in 2015—ironically using diamond-tipped cutters.
322 P. Ekblom
Within the core Routine Activities model, the capability of guardians is an obvi-
ous conceptual peg for preventive technology. This applies equally to the other
“crime preventer” roles that were introduced later (Clarke & Eck, 2003), namely
place managers (e.g. surveillance and access control technology) and handlers of
offenders (e.g. electronic tagging used to monitor curfew of convicted offenders).
At first sight, however, there is little that explicitly covers technology for offending.
Cohen and Felson (1979) did originally include offender capacity under “likely” but
this has got lost in recent years and unfortunately most writers now refer, too nar-
rowly, to the “motivated” offender.
The Conjunction of Criminal Opportunity (CCO—Ekblom, 2010, 2011 and
https://5isframework.wordpress.com/conjunction-of-criminal-opportunity/
accessed 17 June 2015) remedies some of these limitations. It seeks to integrate
the Rational Choice and Routine Activities approaches together with others on
both the situational and offender side, and to provide a consistent and all-encom-
passing conceptual framework and a unified terminology. CCO explicitly includes
offenders’ resources for committing crime (Ekblom & Tilley, 2000; Gill, 2005)
and can be readily extended to cover resources for the familiar preventer roles
discussed above (plus many more with its more flexible role concept, including
“engineer” or “designer”).
In brief, CCO offers twin perspectives: (1) on the proximal causes of criminal
events; and (2) on interventions in those causes to reduce the events’ likelihood and/
or harm. CCO comprises agents (offenders, crime preventers and crime promoters,
who inadvertently, carelessly or deliberately make crime more likely or harmful,
including those engineers who ignore crime risks); and entities (material or human
target; target enclosure; wider environment; and the criminal’s psychological, social
and material resources both for offending, and for avoiding offending). Under CCO,
a criminal event happens when an offender who is predisposed, ready and equipped
to offend (and lacking the resources to avoid offending) encounters, seeks or creates
a situation containing a target that is vulnerable, attractive or provocative, in an
enclosure and/or wider environment that is tactically insecure and perhaps motivat-
ing in some way, facilitated by the absence of ready and able preventers and perhaps
too by the presence of promoters. When these preconditions are met (and perceived
to be met) the offender decides to proceed, and acts. When they are blocked, weak-
ened or diverted by a security intervention, or by natural circumstances, the offender
either cannot so act; is not provoked or prompted to act (Wortley, 2008); or decides
on balance that the perceived reward is not worth the effort and risk.
This ability to map systematically and in detail offers a fuller view of proximal
criminogenic mechanisms, and the criminocclusive mechanisms that deliberately
block, weaken or divert them (Pawson & Tilley, 1997; Ekblom, 2011). Although
space is lacking here, each of the 11 elements of CCO can be focused on in turn (and
perhaps in combination) to examine the diverse roles technology, both material and
informational, can play in contributing to the causes of criminal events, and to inter-
ventions in these causes. For example, offender presence in an enclosure can be
controlled through automated access control (keeping them out) or electronic tag-
ging (keeping them in). Intelligent software can act in a preventer role (e.g. making
19 Technology, Opportunity, Crime and Crime Prevention: Current and Evolutionary… 323
2
Alternative imagery for problems/solutions includes that of ‘glass half-full versus glass half-
empty’; for multiple ones Arthur uses chains.
324 P. Ekblom
a b c
d e
How, then, does technology fit with opportunity, opportunity reduction and
problem-solving?
On the opportunity side, the resources and circumstances can obviously include
technological elements. But technology can be quite fundamental to defining oppor-
tunity. This is partly because it extends human capability to cope and exploit, and
partly because (following Arthur, 2009), it always has a purpose. Indeed, offenders
may have purposes for the technology other than those intended by the engineer/
designer—for example misusing or misappropriating it as discussed below.
On the problem side, technology can contribute to solutions by bridging gaps in
the circle of opportunity—for example, how to stop car alarms going off as intended
(problem for offenders), or inappropriately (problem for car owners and their neigh-
19 Technology, Opportunity, Crime and Crime Prevention: Current and Evolutionary… 325
bours). It can even start an entirely fresh circle, opening the doors to new rounds of
problem and opportunity—as with the arrival of CCTV—monitoring misbehaviour,
or spying on changing rooms. Technology can help either party adapt to contextual
conditions necessary for offending or preventive mechanisms to be triggered (Tilley,
1993). Besides the social and architectural context these may include the prevailing
weather conditions such as sun, rain or snow. Likewise, the weather can cause tech-
nology to fail, as anyone whose car alarm has been set off by the wind will attest.
Besides prevention, technology can halt a criminal attack that has been launched
(for example personal attack alarms or “smokecloaks” to obscure vision), and miti-
gate the adverse consequences of crime—whether backing up the data on a stolen
cell phone, or providing for business continuity after a terrorist attack.3
And technology can resolve design contradictions (Ekblom, 2012a) or trade-offs
between security and, say, safety or profitability. An example is the millimetre-wave
airport body scanner that aids security but reduces privacy, where one resolution is
the substitution of a personal (point-and-laugh) body image on the operator’s screen
with a generic, computer-generated outline that still displays suspicious items. In
solving problems, technology thus enables rapid adaptation of the good or the bad
party to the challenges posed by its material and social habitat, to the pursuit of its
goals. But finding technological solutions that enable opportunities may not always
be straightforward. To quote Arthur, “At one end of the chain is the need or purpose
to be fulfilled; at the other is the base effect that will be harnessed to meet it. Linking
the two is the overall solution, the new principle, or concept of the effect used to
accomplish that purpose. But getting the principle to work properly raises chal-
lenges, and these call for their own means of solution, usually in the form of the
systems or assemblies that make the solution possible.” (2009:110) And one might
add that technology can also obstruct achievement of purposes when it fails the
user, engenders a vulnerability to attack, or is difficult to obtain without extra cost
and risk; and sometimes too when the opponent’s technology succeeds.
Cyberspace creates a new technological domain for opportunities and problems,
but whether recently emerged crimes in silico are merely always reconfigurations of
familiar clashes in vivo, with certain constraints removed (such as spatial conjunc-
tions, inertia, conservation of mass etc.), or entirely new ones is debatable. Certainly
the question of identity and trust in online transactions has become a huge issue.
Applying CCO to cyberspace, Collins and Mansell (2004:64) noted that trust fits
into the framework in several ways. “An Internet shopper who is too trusting may
act as a careless or negligent crime promoter, as may a system designer. Conversely,
being an effective crime preventer means being equipped with appropriate applica-
tions and systems. Offenders exploit misplaced trust, sometimes to an expert degree
and are aided by software and hardware based resources, for example, ‘skimming’
devices fitted into cash machines to clone cards.”
Taking the broader view, technological extensions of human agents’ capabilities,
and the technologically modified situations in which those capabilities are exer-
cised, combine to engender a range of opportunities for crime, and likewise for
3
Thanks to Benoit Leclerc for these ideas.
326 P. Ekblom
crime prevention. The combinations range from simple to complex; and from direct
routes to indirect, roundabout ones such as the mediating effect of technology on
people’s routine movements which lead them to crime-generating situations
(Brantingham & Brantingham, 2008). And there are always knock-on and interac-
tion effects between technologies and with other social and physical circumstances
generating unforeseen consequences (for example see Tenner, 1996).
Criminal events are unlike chemical reactions, where the ingredients are simply
brought together and in a single step reliably produce a brightly coloured precipitate
or nasty smell. The coming-together of proximal criminal ingredients may result
from influences at levels ranging from the individual offender creating the opportu-
nity—which is not a Routine Activity—to emergent societal influences such as mar-
ket forces. For its part, Rational Choice does not cover the actions linking successive
decisions. A complete picture of crime as opportunity therefore cannot be devel-
oped without incorporating a dynamic view.
Cornish (1994) developed the dynamic dimension with his seminal article on
crime scripts, boosting understanding of the procedure of crime commission, and
promising identification of particular pinch points in the script where interventions
might be targeted for maximum effect. But scripts can be better woven into the
opportunity/problem perspective presented here if they give more explicit attention
to goals, plans and resources.
Being instrumental, scripts can be influenced by technology in various ways as
problems are solved and opportunities realised. Problems come in hierarchies or
clusters—much as goals do in means-end relationships—e.g. a subsidiary problem
to breaking into the house could be the lack of a crowbar. Offenders must learn to
bypass alarms or pick locks. They must often take extra steps to obtain tools or
weapons; perhaps also to learn how they work, how they can be used, or even
hacked; and maybe to safely dispose of them or eliminate traces on them such as
from DNA or electronic usage data.
The tools themselves can shape or constrain criminal behaviour. Designers refer
to “persuasive technology” (Lockton, Harrison, & Stanton, 2008), and the idea that
devices (e.g. cash machines) have scripts “expected” of their users (Latour, 1992).
Certainly the properties of knives, locks or network routers influence the kinds of
action offenders can contemplate undertaking, and their performance during the
event itself. Material items are often misused, sometimes created, as props for
con-tricks or ambushes which may involve more or less elaborate scripting. The gay
hookup facility Grindr has for example been used to lure victims to robberies.
Applying the procedural dimension to risk factors reveals glossed-over subtle-
ties. For example, the Concealable factor in CRAVED hot products (Clarke, 1999)
19 Technology, Opportunity, Crime and Crime Prevention: Current and Evolutionary… 327
may be criminogenic at the getaway stage when it is the thief who pockets the stolen
smartphone; but the same factor may protect the phone, safely in the owner’s pocket
or bag, at the target-seeking stage.
The procedural analysis of behaviour applies to preventers as well as offenders,
covering all the above considerations. The preventer’s script may be quite closely
interrelated to the offender’s script, for example in collecting money from a cash
machine, and stealing or robbing it. Especially significant for technology is the
concept of the script clash (Ekblom, 2012a). This is where the offender’s script
engages with the preventer’s in such issues as:
• Surveill v conceal
• Exclude v permit entry
• Wield force v resist
• Conceal v detect criminal intent
• Challenge suspect v give plausible response
• Surprise/ambush v warning
• Trap v elude
• Pursue v escape
• Foster trust v become suspicious
• Constrain v circumvent4
Technology can favour one side over the other, creating an opportunity either for
crime, or for prevention, variously relating to targets (e.g. resistant or vulnerable,
concealable or detectable), enclosures (hardened or vulnerable, excluding or per-
mitting entry), environments (e.g. illuminated evenly so as to minimise scope for
ambush, or with deep shadows) and resources for offending (e.g. tools with ambigu-
ous or clear-cut criminal purpose).
Clashes are the fulcrums on which prevention must be designed. The security
design task is to arrange the situation to favour preventers over offenders.
Discriminant technologies are often crucial—for example the swing-down fire
escapes enabling residents to flee a burning building, but hindering offenders from
entering; and the “what you know, what you have and what you are” discriminators
in ICT security (respectively, passwords, tokens and biometrics).
Technological Change
The original Routine Activities article (Cohen & Felson, 1979) theorised how
changes in the weight/bulk of items like TV sets over several decades made them
more suitable as targets for theft. But we can view such changes over greater times-
cales—indeed Felson and Eckert (2015) argue that technological change is of major
importance in understanding longer-term trends in the crime and crime prevention
4
Thanks to Benoit Leclerc for this clash.
328 P. Ekblom
field, illustrating the point with, for example, crime impacts over history of the
adoption of horse transport, and the move into towns and cities.
Although early technologies (such as Acheulian stone hand-axes introduced by
Homo erectus) endured for hundreds of thousands of years, under Homo sapiens
technological change has become the norm. Ogburn (1922), an early historian of
technology, saw technological change as the primary driver of social change. In
understanding change processes, subsequent debates have occurred over the relative
predominance of technological or resource push versus market or demand pull (see
Arthur, 2009; and Sten, 2014 for a thorough review of the development of thought
in this area). The current view seems to be that of a system of mutual influence and
feedback loops between supply and demand for technology, albeit with technology
taking a significant and often-leading role. Technologically induced changes diffuse
through the wider society at differential rates, leading to cultural lags in adjustment
(Ogburn, 1922). Many commentators (e.g. Arthur, 2009) have noted that the rate of
technological change has been accelerating, which can only amplify such lags and
any negative consequences, e.g. from crime prevention techniques trailing those of
crime commission.
Accounts of the change process have usually drawn on evolutionary themes, and
this is adopted here. The pattern of technological evolution has been variously seen
as slow and cumulative (as with Gilfillan’s (1935) account of the development of
ships through many individual inventions), or operating on a range of saltatory
scales. According to Arthur (2009) these range from small “standard engineering”
advances or tweaks, to more radical innovations (such as the leap from steam to
electrical propulsion of locomotives) and those that transform whole industries and
beyond (such as ICT). The pressures shaping technological evolution variously
relate to market forces, networking and both physical and social constraints.
It is self-evident that viewing technological evolution as a subset of cultural evo-
lution can give useful insights. But by combining this with conventional, biological
evolution we can go beyond the human and ecological factors than the “vanilla”
version of crime science supplies, gaining insight from fresh concepts and a certain
detachment from conventional viewpoints.
Early attempts to draw on biological evolution to understand technology include
Samuel Butler’s idea of “Darwin amongst the Machines” (1863) but these resem-
bled superficial analogies (with curious visions of coupling steam engines!). Later
attempts have been more penetrating. Biological and cultural evolution have previ-
ously been viewed as rivals for explaining human behaviour (e.g. see Roach &
Pease, 2013), but the scope for fundamental tie-ups between them has increased
(e.g. Godfrey-Smith, 2012). In fact, “Universal Darwinism” (Nelson, 2007) envis-
ages a common “evolutionary algorithm” (Dennett, 1995) comprising variation of
individual organisms, practices or products; selection on the basis of adaptation to
19 Technology, Opportunity, Crime and Crime Prevention: Current and Evolutionary… 329
Biological Lag
bands with limited weapons and tools. The remarkable human capacity for
cooperation described above evolved in this period, creating the backdrop
against which crime must be understood. But unfortunately we are also pretty
accomplished at conflict between individuals, and between groups; and in
inventing, using and improving tools and weapons in both cooperation and con-
flict. Behavioural tendencies appropriate for the Pleistocene circumstances—
where time, space, materials and local population size provided natural
constraints on conflict, differential wealth, things to steal and violence—are
now inappropriate where weapons of easy, stand-off killing and mass destruc-
tion are available together with a cornucopia of portable high-value goods.
Inappropriate, too, when we are enclosed in vehicles where lack of natural
empathic signals between conflicting individuals can perhaps unleash road rage.
Cultural evolution has largely been able to compensate for inadequate psycho-
logical/ecological controls, including through the development of social con-
trols relating to reputation; and societal institutions such as law, criminalisation
and enforcement. But because these remain imperfect, direct interventions to
improve security remain necessary (Schneier, 2012).
Thwarted commercial burglars can simply return to attack a fence with a more
powerful bolt-cutter—an example of tactical displacement. But the offensive or
defensive tools themselves may change, and the balance of technological advan-
tage between offenders and preventers alters over time. Technological historians
have long identified perturbations and disruptions of a more general nature
(Christensen & Raynor, 2003; Ogburn, 1922). Disruptive trends like automation,
remote monitoring and operation, self-design and production, mass customisa-
tion, miniaturisation, portability including power supply, and the break between
appearance and functionality, will all keep perturbing the balance between offend-
ers and preventers.
Change can be exogenous (driven by external forces like the arrival of the motor
vehicle, acting as crime resource and target par excellence, or police patrol car);
endogenous, by the playing out of script clashes involving the adaptation and
counter-adaptation of criminals and preventers to one another’s tools, techniques
and weapons; or more usually, a combination in which exogenous changes perturb
the endogenous ones. However, the nature of that perturbation, and the interactions
between different perturbations, can only be resolved at the level of the fine detail
of particularities and perhaps only in retrospect. An example is the digital TV set-
top box, intended to allow existing analogue TV sets to receive digital stations. A
compact (and for a few years, widely available) object initially costing around
£100, we might have expected the box to become a hot product—until the TV
service providers decided to subsidise the cost and instead make their money from
the service charge.
332 P. Ekblom
Co-evolutionary Struggles
In the short term one can imagine the mutual adaptation of conflicting scripts—the
first bicycle-parking script might have been “cycle to cake shop, leave bike outside,
buy cake, return, mount bike and pedal off”; the first bike theft script “see unat-
tended bike, get on and pedal off”. Soon these would be followed by various elabo-
rations such as “lock bike”, “break bike lock” etc. In the medium term come “crime
harvests” Pease (2001), in which some product, say the mobile phone, is designed
and developed in a way that is naïvely vulnerable to crime and attractive to offend-
ers (a failure to “think thief”—Ekblom, 1997). Soon after coming on the market it
becomes both a popular purchase and a popular steal. This is usually followed by
desperate commercial or governmental measures to retrofit security which often
result in clunky, user-unfriendly or unreliable products.
In the longer term, such adaptations and counteradaptations can extend into pro-
longed co-evolutionary struggles (Ekblom, 1999; Sagarin & Taylor, 2008). These
are also known as arms races or “Red Queen’s games”, where you have to keep
running merely to stay in the same place (from Alice Through the Looking Glass—
see van Valen 1973; Dawkins and Krebs 1979). Classic examples are the evolution
of the safe (Shover, 1996), coins and banknotes, and more recent means of payment
such as online purchases. Once started, arms races may unfold at an irregular pace
(perhaps resembling the biological “punctuated equilibrium” of Eldredge and Gould
(1972)). At any point in such a criminal co-evolutionary sequence, we may encoun-
ter further harvests in the form of breakouts or “evolutionary surprise attacks”
(Tooby & DeVore, 1987), where a new tactic, tool or weapon becomes available or
is invented out of the blue and, for a while at least, overwhelms the opposition’s
defences. Imagine, for example, the devastating effect on cyber security if someone
discovered how to predict/identify the very large prime numbers relied on in most
security protocols.
Historical changes, and co-evolution especially, mean that knowledge of what works,
including technological solutions to crime problems, is a wasting asset that needs con-
tinual replenishment by new sources of variety. A contemporary example here is what
happens when the automotive industry rests on its laurels. A convincing case can be
made (see Chap. 22) that the “security hypothesis”—sustained technological and proce-
dural improvements in the security of homes, vehicles, shops etc.—accounts for the
striking crime drop seen over the last two decades. A significant contributor to these
improvements has been the inclusion (e.g. mandated by EU Directive) of immobilisers
in vehicles; Brown (2013) thoroughly reviews the evidence. Recently, however, and as
Brown anticipated, car thieves have managed to circumvent the security of keyless top-
end models such as the Land Rover Evoque (www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-29786320
accessed 20 February 2015). These are currently disappearing into shipping containers
and heading abroad so fast that insurers are declining cover unless, say, cars are parked
off-street and primitive security devices like add-on steering wheel locks fitted. A similar
reversion to past technology is evidenced (www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/11/
russia-reverts-paper-nsa-leaks accessed 20 February 2015) by the Russian Federal
19 Technology, Opportunity, Crime and Crime Prevention: Current and Evolutionary… 333
Guard Service. Following the Snowden affair, they have purchased old-fashioned type-
writers in order to deter leaks, by the traceability of individual machines’ key imprints.
In asymmetrical warfare, insurgents sometimes gain advantage by reversion to old-
fashioned weapons or means of communication.
Accelerants
• Misappropriation (theft)
• Mistreatment (damage or injury)
• Mishandling (e.g. smuggling, data transfer)
• Misrepresentation (fraud)5
• Misbegetting (counterfeit)
• Misuse (as tool or weapon)
• Misbehaviour (for spraying graffiti for example)
• Mistakes (e.g. false alarms)
More specific risk factors for, say, misappropriation of products can be devel-
oped, as with CRAVED (Clarke, 1999). In turn, we can link these factors to generic
anticipated trends in technology, including greater miniaturisation and less use of
energy, to spot upcoming criminogenic changes.
Equivalent protective factors/opportunities for prevention are:
• Secured against Misappropriation, e.g. vehicles with built-in immobilisers
• Safeguarded against Mistreatment, e.g. street signs that avoid couching regula-
tions in provocative, confrontational terms
• Scam-proofed against Mishandling, Misbegetting and Misrepresentation, e.g.
fold-over airline baggage labels concealing holidaymakers’ addresses from bur-
glars’ touts; or anti-copying functions within DVDs
• Shielded against Misuse, e.g. one-time syringes
• “Sivilised” against Misbehaviour, e.g. metro station seating shaped to discourage
rough sleeping
These factors can be used descriptively; or as a technology requirement specifi-
cation e.g. by the police (Ekblom, 2005) intended to encourage the development of
the appropriate preventive capabilities. This last is an instance of market pull rather
than technology push.
5
Thanks to Benoit Leclerc for Misrepresentation, and Ken Pease for Misbegetting.
336 P. Ekblom
principles for preventive intervention, which channel more or less complex mecha-
nisms through practical intervention methods. (In this, in itself it resembles Arthur’s
(2009) account of a domain of technology.) Innovation in prevention can also draw
on recombination of modular practice elements (e.g. how to mobilise people as
preventers) (Ekblom, 2011).
However, concepts can only be realised by people. We need professional design-
ers closely working with practice-experts and users for the theory and practical
know-how to come together to generate intervention measures that both work in
principle and are workable in practice; and moreover which meet a range of other
requirements such as cost, aesthetics, durability, a small carbon footprint (Armitage
& Monchuk, 2011), business continuity and public safety. This takes design beyond
the pure homespun practicality of the police and hard-edged engineers. Recent
reviews of design and crime are in Ekblom, 2012a, 2014, and see also www.desig-
nagainstcrime.com and www.designingoutcrime.com/.
The design process needs hefty doses of intuition, inspiration and creativity,
helped by developing a “think criminal” mindset, and always being alert to the
need to “reframe” the presenting problem (Lulham, Camacho Duarte, Dorst, &
Kaldor, 2012). But it must also be systematic, constrained and supported by theo-
retical and methodological discipline. The use of frameworks like CCO, scripts
etc. as discussed, and the more specific situational perspectives behind them, can
contribute to this. One approach to feeding crime science into design is the Security
Function Framework (Ekblom, 2012b; Meyer & Ekblom, 2011) for specifying
criminocclusive products, i.e. those that reduce the possibility, probability and
harm from criminal events. This framework seeks to develop a rationale for secure
designs in terms of
• Purpose (what/who are the designs for, i.e. to reduce what crimes, and serve what
other goals, for which stakeholders?)
• Niche (how do they fit within the security ecosystem? Inherently secure prod-
ucts, dedicated security products, or securing products which confer protection
as a side-benefit to some main function like being a handbag)
• Mechanism (how do they work, causally, to serve security and other goals?)
• Technicality (how are they constructed, of what materials, and how are they
operated?)
A counterpart framework could be developed for criminals’ tools and weapons.
Clarke and Newman (2006) have developed the acronym MURDEROUS to describe
weapons of choice for terrorists: Multipurpose, Undetectable, Removable,
Destructive, Enjoyable, Reliable, Obtainable, Uncomplicated and Safe.
A final approach in the engineering innovation context is TRIZ, the theory of
inventive principles (Ekblom, 2012a; www.triz-journal.com/ accessed 3 March
2015). In brief, TRIZ facilitates the engineering design process by bulk scrutiny of
past inventions and inventive trends. The TRIZ approach has developed a generic
set of 40 inventive principles, abstracted widely across vast numbers of patents; 39
recurrent contradiction principles that routinely face designers seeking to meet con-
flicting user requirements, or technical tradeoffs such as strength versus weight.
19 Technology, Opportunity, Crime and Crime Prevention: Current and Evolutionary… 337
Contradictions and tradeoffs are inherent in crime prevention: there is the central
contradiction between “offender wants the item” versus “owner wants the item”;
and in practice there are specific script clashes, as previously described. There are
also contradictions within security, such as “higher fence keeps intruders out” ver-
sus “blocks natural surveillance”; and “lighting means more security but greater
carbon footprint” (cf. Armitage & Monchuk, 2009). Each contradiction constitutes
a problem as previously defined, in terms of an obstacle to someone’s achievement
of their goals. A central procedure within TRIZ is to identify two principles in con-
flict, then look up to see what inventive principles were previously used to resolve
that contradiction. New technology has always been at the forefront of such resolu-
tions—for example, the arrival of the internal combustion engine relaxing the
strength/weight trade-off, so the military tank simultaneously has both armour and
manoeuvrability, unlike its predecessors the armed knight and the cavalryman, who
had one or the other.
A final aspect of TRIZ worth mentioning is its identification of a range of evolu-
tionary trends in various technological fields (e.g. a trend from fixed links between
components, to hinged links, to infinitely variable links like bicycle chains, to elec-
tromagnetic fields). Knowing such trends can help us anticipate where the next
improvement in some product, process or system might be expected to come from,
whether introduced by legitimate engineers or criminal ones. In this respect, TRIZ
provides yet another, more technologically particular, evolutionary perspective to
those already described.
Beyond the technical side of innovation, designers and those that employ them
must consider the business dimension of market forces in spurring development of
products and getting them sold. Space precludes further discussion but it is worth
briefly noting that opportunity relating not to criminal conflict but commercial com-
petition (e.g. McElwee & Smith, 2015; Trott, 2005), raises interesting theoretical
and practical issues. And Arthur (2009) considers demand too limited a concept to
depict processes at the level of the economy, preferring to refer to “opportunity
niches” (e.g. p. 174). There was no specific demand for penicillin, for example, until
it was discovered, but there was a broader need for something to be done about
bacterial infection. Working this concept into crime science may prove rewarding.
Weaknesses of Technology
Technology has its drawbacks for crime prevention as much as in any other domain
of application. Solution- or supply-driven approaches to problems can canalise
responses, constraining both current interventions and future adaptability. The rush
into public-space CCTV surveillance, despite indications of restricted utility (Welsh
& Farrington, 2008) reflects this. Investment in technology of the rigid, capital-
intensive kind can hinder adaptation to changes and enhance the lag behind adaptive
criminals—a case of “field obsolescence”. Techno-fixes can be superficial, of the
“bolt-on, drop-off” kind. However well-designed and constructed, they can also fail
338 P. Ekblom
at the interface with humans if that part of the preventive system is inadequately
integrated or updated. One example is the Grippa Clip (Ekblom et al., 2012), a care-
fully designed and trialled clip for preventing theft of customers’ bags by anchoring
them to pub/café tables. Despite plaudits from customers, police and bar staff, and
successful utilisation by customers in bars in Barcelona and a café at a London sta-
tion, in one UK bar chain they were ignored. Indications were that utilisation
depended on the crime climate (serious enough in Barcelona for bar staff to not be
shy about alerting customers to these security aids), and on staff motivation and
commitment (in the UK bars this seemed lacking, but was firmly present in the
London café, which “nurtured” its personnel and established mutual commitment
with the company).
Technology can make things worse, with false burglar or car alarms wasting
police time and annoying neighbours. It can also be self-defeating: clunky password-
based security systems overload the memory and exceed an employee’s “compli-
ance budget” (Beautement, Sasse, & Wonham, 2008)—that proportion of their
work time and effort they are willing to dedicate to security procedures (beyond
which they cut corners, like writing passwords down).
But none of these failings are inherent limitations of technology—only technol-
ogy that is over-relied upon in isolation from human/system considerations; poorly
designed (e.g. to be abuser-unfriendly without being simultaneously user-friendly;
and note the DAPPER acronym in Chap. 22); rigid and constraining in the face of
the messy complexity of real life; and incapable of being adapted to changing pat-
terns of risk during its lifetime of use, through material or software upgrades
(Ekblom, 1997).
A broader issue is complexity. Arms races, human system failures etc. show that
technology is often embedded in complex adaptive systems, where introducing
change at one point is followed by the various agents adjusting to the change, and to
each other’s new stance (a theme inaugurated by Ogburn (1922)). Add to this the
complexity of interactions between technologies (think how many technologies
came, or were brought, together to enable the attack on the Twin Towers) and we
can see how unpredictable the crime (or crime prevention) impact of individual
technological developments can be. Crime prevention faces a rich and challenging
future in which sense-making rather than watertight, orderly explanation and pre-
diction may well play a greater part in practice, as it is doing in the economy as a
whole (Arthur, 2009).
Conclusion
Technology forms a pervasive and routine part of the human ecosystem, and consti-
tutes the means of individuals and groups to extend their native capabilities to adapt
to and exploit that ecosystem, whether for legitimate or illegitimate purposes. It is
not an optional bolt-on component to crime science, but is fundamental to concepts
of opportunities, problems and solutions.
19 Technology, Opportunity, Crime and Crime Prevention: Current and Evolutionary… 339
Technology both creates and solves problems for offenders and crime preven-
ters, and—as the other side of the coin—helps to block or generate opportunities for
these parties. It plays many causal roles in the clashing scripts of offenders and
preventers: in the language of CCO it can produce or modify targets, enclosures and
wider built environments; enable or restrict presence in the crime situation; and sup-
ply resources for offending, avoiding offending and preventing offending. All of
these apply to both material and cybercrime, and to both hi-tech and low-tech prod-
ucts and systems. Since every criminal or preventive action has a potential techno-
logical dimension, those seeking to understand and intervene in crime must be
technically aware. Since it is so varied—and variable—crime scientists must under-
stand technology’s fundamental nature, as shown for example by Arthur, and be
able to grasp the specifics of technologies in particular crime situations, scripts and
script clashes, both functionally and … technically.
One underlying theme of this chapter has been the symmetry between problems
and solutions facing offenders, and the solutions and problems facing preventers.
But the point having being made, it may be worth exploring what asymmetries
remain, and their significance for prevention. To a certain degree, professional
developers of preventive technologies work in an intensive way, with considerable
investment and application of know-how, time and other resources in coming up
with solutions. This may also happen with organised or networked crime and terror-
ism, but in many cases the development process may be extensive, with thousands
of offenders “trying it on” in modest ways to develop ways to circumvent particular
locks, or surveillance cameras, or find loopholes in financial systems. The extensive
process resembles all those bacteria mutating away in their billions, with a few com-
ing up with just the right change in their metabolic repertoire to overcome the latest
antibiotic.
Technologies interact with one another and with social and environmental con-
texts, generating challenging levels of complexity and unpredictability. And tech-
nology evolves, under the drivers and constraints of market forces, societal
requirements, the material laws of physics and chemistry, the logical rules and
conventions of ICT, the ingenuity and innovativeness of engineers and designers, a
never-ending succession of technologically induced opportunities and problems and
in some cases, the co-evolutionary arms race between offenders and preventers.
This evolution unfolds in biological, cultural and specifically technological domains.
(Interestingly, Arthur (2009) points out how technology itself is developing ever
increasing resemblance to biology in its complexity, adaptability and integration/
communication between parts.)
For the foreseeable future, technology will be a significant influence in both gen-
erating and reducing crime. However, successful crime prevention through technol-
ogy cannot be based on some narrow and linear technological determinism but must
be undertaken through the understanding of and influence upon complex social/
physical/informational systems. The design of technology must thread its way
between diverse requirements and in particular to intelligently discriminate in
favour of rightful owners/users over criminal abusers and misusers. While a purely
technological approach to crime prevention has notable weaknesses and limitations,
340 P. Ekblom
technology that is carefully designed in line with the tested theories of crime sci-
ence, developed, updateable and updated on an appropriate timescale, and that is
well-integrated with the human parts of a security system, can make a significant
contribution to the well-being of individuals, organisations and society.
But criminals are forever seeking opportunities to misappropriate, mistreat,
misuse and misbehave with technology as they adapt to the changing socio-
technological environment, attempting to cope with its hazards and exploit its vul-
nerabilities. The Red Queen’s game will doubtless continue to run throughout the
remainder of the twenty-first century and beyond. Only strategic, evolutionary and
innovative thinking based on plausible theory and empirical research and develop-
ment can stop the nice guys finishing last. But it seems (www.bbc.co.uk/news/
technology-31416838 accessed 5 March 2015) they will have to contend with
3D-printed knuckledusters!
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Chapter 20
Passive WiFi Radar: A New Technology
for Urban Area Surveillance
Introduction
Wireless Fidelity (WiFi) technology has experienced a major and rapid global roll-
out since its introduction in the late 1990s and is now the standard communication
modality for accessing broadband internet worldwide. It is a pervasive technology
and ubiquitous in our everyday lives, operating in our homes, places of work and
study, right through to transport hubs and the coffee shops and shopping malls we
visit in our leisure time. WiFi is based on the IEEE 802.11 communications proto-
cols (IEEE, 1999) and defines the standards for wireless local area networks
(WLANs) which allow electronic devices to connect to the internet or exchange
data. By the end of 2011 it was estimated that 439 million, or 25 % of all households
worldwide had a WiFi network set-up (Wu, 2011). Additionally WiFi provider
iPass state that at the end of 2014 the number of global public WiFi hotspots reached
approximately 47.7 million.
Concept of Operation
K. Chetty (*)
Department of Security and Crime Science, University College London,
35 Tavistock Square, London WC1h 9EZ, UK
e-mail: k.chetty@ucl.ac.uk
K. Woodbridge
Department of Electronic and Electrical Engineering, University College London,
London, UK
signals which already exist in the atmosphere. It dates back to the earliest days of
radar (Griffiths, 1993) and interest in the field has varied cyclically over the years.
Griffiths (Griffiths, 2008) explains that the most recent resurgence is due to the
increased availability and affordability of both computing power and hardware, as
well as the transition from the more traditional illuminators of opportunity origi-
nating from television (Griffiths & Long, 1986) and FM radio (Lauri et al., 2007)
broadcast stations, to the escalating numbers of new digital communications pro-
tocols such as GSM, digital audio broadcasting, digital video broadcasting ter-
restrial (Poullin, 2005), and wireless networks based on the IEEE 802 standards
such as WiFi (802.11) and WiMAX (802.16). The result of this resurgence has
new wave of passive radar systems (Poullin, 2005; Tan et al., 2005; Zemmari
et al., 2014) which utilise these transmissions primarily for maritime and air sur-
veillance applications.
Passive radar systems essentially consist of a series of synchronised radio receiv-
ers that are spatially separated from the transmitter which they are using. This spa-
tial separation between the transmitter and receivers puts them into a class of radar
system known as bistatic radar (Willis, 2007).
The basic concept of WiFi passive radar is illustrated in Fig. 20.1: In many
typical urban environments there exist WiFi access points which allow people to
connect their electronic devices (e.g. laptops and smart-phones) to the internet.
The WiFi access points flood their surrounding areas with RF communication
signals (shown in blue) so as people move through these signal fields they scatter
Fig. 20.1 WiFi passive radar concept of operation. A person moving within the coverage area of
a WiFi access point scatters the signal field in all directions, which can then be detected by sur-
rounding passive receivers
20 Passive WiFi Radar: A New Technology for Urban Area Surveillance 347
the signals in all directions, and induce a frequency shift within the signal through
a phenomenon known as the Doppler effect (Gill, 1965). By placing a single or set
of surveillance receivers around the environment it is then possible to detect these
scattered echoes, and thus detect the presence of any moving targets of interest.
However, most urban environments are generally already cluttered with other
WiFi and interfering signals in the immediate vicinity so passive radar systems
must also employ a reference receiver to monitor the output from the WiFi access
point. The reference channel is then used to inform the surveillance receiver of
exactly which scattered signals to identify during the cross-correlation signal pro-
cessing. Signal processing can reveal whether or not moving targets such as peo-
ple have been detected in the surveillance receivers’ field-of-view, and if so,
information relating to the range of the target from the receiver, direction of
movement and velocity can be obtained.
WiFi Passive radar is a new concept so in order to determine the feasibility of the
passive WiFi radar concept described above, two types of theoretical analyses were
conducted to predict and quantify its operational characteristics. These were (1) An
ambiguity function waveform analysis to gauge the accuracy to which WiFi signals
can detect moving targets and (2) A signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) performance simu-
lation to identify the distances over which such systems can operate.
It can be seen from Table 20.1 that the range resolutions which can be achieved
by transmission signals previously used as the basis of passive radar systems are
suitable for maritime and air surveillance where a ranging error of between a few
100 m to a kilometre is acceptable. However, these range resolutions are far too
coarse for monitoring urban areas because a target position uncertainty of 100 m
cannot be used effectively. An ambiguity function analysis was applied to various
WiFi waveforms and the results revealed that a range resolution of approximately
12 m can be obtained using the current WiFi standards (Chetty et al., 2009), while
increased bandwidths in future versions of WiFi will allow range resolutions of less
than a metre. The range resolution of the current WiFi standards could be have uses
for identifying the positions of targets of interest in typical urban settings such as
within different rooms of a building or along a section of a street. Overall these
analytical outcomes suggest that the detection accuracy of passive WiFi radar is fine
enough to find surveillance applications in urban environments.
Proof-of-Principle Experiments
Following our theoretical analysis of passive WiFi radar which indicated that the
current technology standards was suitable for urban area surveillance, the next
objective was to run a series of proof-of-principle experiments and demonstrate its
ability to detect people in a range of scenarios. Two experimental campaigns were
carried out; the first campaign investigated the ability of a passive WiFi radar sys-
tem to detect people within indoor environments under realistic conditions, i.e.
where the system has to contend with clutter and multipath components which can
mask target responses, cause fading of the signal or generate ghost targets. The
second examined the possibility of detecting people through walls which presents a
challenging barrier for the WiFi signal to penetrate whilst maintaining a minimum
detectable signal level.
Offices
Target
Surveillance 7m
Receiver 46°
m
Office
10.5
7.6
m
6m
Reference
AP
Receiver
WiFi Access
Point
Offices
20 0
–2
15
–4
10
–6
5 Target
Velocity (m/s)
–8
0 –10
–12
–5
Stationary Objects –14
–10 (walls, filing cabinets etc)
–16
–15
–18
–20 –20
0 10 20 30 40 Signal Power
Range (m) [dB]
Fig. 20.4 Detection of personnel within a high clutter indoor environment using passive WiFi
radar
Key Benefits
The list below outlines some of the main features of passive WiFi radar technology
and describes the benefits it can offer over other types of surveillance and monitor-
ing systems:
352 K. Chetty and K. Woodbridge
Fig. 20.5 Experimental test site for examining the through-wall detection capability of passive
WiFi radar
25
20
15
10
5
Doppler (Hz)
0
–5
–10
–15
–20
–25
0 12 24
Range (m)
Fig. 20.6 Detection of a person through a wall in the experimental test scenario. Note that a cell
averaging technique and interference suppression algorithm have been applied to this result
• Uncooperative Detection:
Unlike some monitoring technologies which require a person to carry a coopera-
tive device such as an RFID tag or mobile phone, passive WiFi radar relies only
on detecting reflected signals from targets of interest and therefore operates in a
completely uncooperative manner.
• Motion Sensitivity:
20 Passive WiFi Radar: A New Technology for Urban Area Surveillance 353
Based on the capabilities and functions described above and in addition to the ubiq-
uitous and pervasive nature of WiFi communication networks, we believe that pas-
sive WiFi radar has the potential to be a valuable crime prevention and detection
tool with widespread applicability, either as a standalone surveillance system or in
conjunction with other technologies such as CCTV. In this section we describe the
354 K. Chetty and K. Woodbridge
potential applications of passive WiFi radar for crime prevention and detection, and
outline some of the system requirements associated with the various types of
deployment:
• General Surveillance in Public Urban Areas:
Networks of distributed passive WiFi radar sensors could be deployed relatively
easily and cheaply over large urban areas where, in addition to WLANs, CCTV
usually already exists. One important crime prevention application here could be
to enhance the existing surveillance capability by addressing the problem of
large volumes of redundant video images which are fed into CCTV control
rooms: CCTV operators are typically required to observe the recordings from
many cameras simultaneously, and though these cameras are equipped with pan,
zoom and tilt capabilities; it is a near impossible task for the operator to ensure
the cameras are always directed toward areas where people are located and activ-
ities of interest are occurring.
Passive WiFi could work alongside CCTV systems to automatically slave
them towards areas where movement is detected, allowing a more useful stream
of video images to the operators. Moreover, the potential of passive WiFi radar
to identify aggressive or anomalous behaviour (see section on Technology
Evolution) could be used to further enhance this function and slave cameras in
real-time to areas which are required to be assessed with high-priority. Finally
the tracking capability of passive WiFi radar (Falcone et al., 2012) could be com-
bined with video analytics to add a level of autonomy to the surveillance net-
work. For example if the CCTV operator wanted to monitor a specific person
over a period of time, the radar could track that person and facilitate automatic
handover between different cameras as they move around.
• Though-the-Wall Surveillance:
For law enforcement agencies being able to determine the numbers and locations
of people in an enclosed area would be useful in scenarios such as hostage situ-
ations or prior to forcing entry in a house raid, or when storming a building. The
through-wall capability of passive WiFi radar could possibly also be extended to
through-floor and through-ceiling detection in structures such as high rise build-
ings for covertly monitoring terrorist activities.
For through-wall surveillance applications there is a requirement for the sen-
sor to be mobile so the architecture of the passive WiFi radar system would have
to be designed to meet this criteria, i.e. the reference and surveillance antennas
would not be fixed and spatially distributed around a large area, but would be
co-located and allowed to have degrees of freedom in their pointing directions.
The signal processing and user interface would also need to be integrated on a
single unit for control by an individual operator.
• Emergency Evacuation:
Within the domain of Intelligent environments, agent based models are being
used in real-time to analyse information relating to the locations of fires, explo-
sions, dense smoke etc from smart sensors to generate optimised emergency
20 Passive WiFi Radar: A New Technology for Urban Area Surveillance 355
evacuation routes (Chooramun, Lawrence, & Galea, 2011; Gwynne et al., 1999)
using intelligent active dynamic signage (Xie et al., 2012). These evacuation
routes are then updated in real-time as the fire or attack progresses. However, a
major issue for the models is that there is a limited availability of data relating to
the positions and numbers of people at any given instant. Passive WiFi radar
could therefore be combined into the intelligent sensor network to aid the agent
models by seeding the simulations with information about the locations and
movements of people. The result would be a tailored and dynamic evacuation
plans for individuals based on their location and current direction of travel.
• Perimeter Monitoring Around Buildings:
Passive WiFi radarcould be used as an alarm system when a predefined perimeter
around a building has been breached. To keep costs low for the home security
market, the sensor could take the form of a single receiver which bolts-on to an
existing WiFi access point. For public, government and industrial buildings the
technology could also be integrated with the existing CCTV infrastructure for
enhanced surveillance capabilities described above.
Technology Evolution
The development in recent years of 4th Generation (4G) wireless networks such as
Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMAX) and Long Term
Evolution (Lte) have allowed internet access over long distances of many tens of
kilometres within wireless metropolitan area networks (WMANs). Passive WiFi
radar could therefore evolve toward passive WiMAX or Lte radar in order to pro-
vide surveillance over much larger areas.
We have investigated the potential application of passive WiMAX radar for
maritime surveillance (Chetty et al., 2010) and the outcomes suggest that due to
its low-cost, ease of large-scale deployment and no requirement to operate with
a spectrum licence, it could be used to extend existing surveillance coverage
areas, or “fill-in” blind spots. Potential applications include monitoring long
stretches of coastline to counter drug smuggling and illegal immigration, ship
based detection of approaching small boats in tackling piracy, and surveilling
harbour areas and shipping channels for non-cooperating unidentified vessels
and suspicious movements associated with terrorist activities. Additionally in
developing countries where it is unlikely that wired communications infrastruc-
tures will be established on a large scale, 4G and 5G wireless communications
are expected to undergo a significant rollout. These countries typically have
little or no protection of coastlines, harbour and port areas, so utilisation of the
wireless transmissions through passive radar technology could prove to be a
useful surveillance tool.
356 K. Chetty and K. Woodbridge
WiFi signal reflections from moving targets that are detected by the surveillance
receiver experience a shift in their frequency due to the well-known Doppler effect
(Gill, 1965). Micro-Doppler is an additional effect whereby any other motions on
the main body of movement, such as vibrations or rotations induce further Doppler
perturbations around the main Doppler shift. These perturbations, or micro-Doppler
signatures, are characteristic to particular types of movement and can therefore be
used to provide extra information about the targets of interest using classification
techniques (Chen, Tahmoush, & Miceli, 2014).
For passive WiFi radar, micro-Doppler signatures associated with the way in
which a person’s torso and limbs move could be used indicate the type of activity
they are carrying out. For example a person who is walking whilst holding a ruck-
sack or concealing an object under one arm while the other arm swings naturally
would generate a different micro-Doppler signature to someone who is walking
absent with any belongings on their person, and similarly for motions such as
punching, kicking, and limping. Potential application of micro-Doppler analysis
include; recognising aggressive behaviour in the night-time economy, determining
if an alarm has been triggered by an animal or human (e.g. in border surveillance)
or identifying erratic behaviour in the bulk movements of large crowds. Moreover
there may also be a possibility that micro-Doppler signatures for the same types of
motions (e.g. walking or running) but between different people can be differentiated
due to subtle differences in body motions, and thus used for gait-based identifica-
tion. Initial results from our real-time passive WiFi radar system prototype (Chetty
et al., 2014) have shown that difference body movements such as swaying and
squatting to pick up an object give distinct Doppler-time characteristics with many
micro-Doppler components (Tan, Woodbridge, & Chetty, 2014).
Summary
This chapter describes a novel approach for surveillance in urban areas using passive
WiFi radar technology. The main features of technology and its advantages over other
surveillance technologies are explained. The application of passive radar for crime
prevention and detection applications within Crime and Security are significant and
some examples of where and how the technology could be deployed are discussed.
The expansion of wireless networks in towns and cities across the world has pro-
vided a basis for the technology to be deployed ubiquitously wherever there is a
requirement for area monitoring and surveillance. The future demand for wireless
networks to provide higher power communication signals and larger bandwidths to
facilitate broader connection coverage faster data rates will result in performance
improvements of wireless based passive radar systems in terms of both surveillance
20 Passive WiFi Radar: A New Technology for Urban Area Surveillance 357
coverage and detection accuracy. Passive WiFi radar is a new technology for monitor-
ing the movements of people, and we envisage that it will become integrated within
the urban wireless landscape with widespread applications in the growth of cities.
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Chapter 21
Micro UAV Crime Prevention: Can We Help
Princess Leia?
Introduction
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are becoming increasingly popular due to the
impressive capabilities, broad range of applications and cost-saving opportunities
they offer. Also known as Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) or drones, these plat-
forms, in particular micro UAVs under 3 kg, are increasingly found in the hands of
untrained operators and probably malicious ones in a near future. As such, these
systems are likely to represent a source of danger and criminal threats, introducing
new operational challenges to police forces.
Prevention of drone crime relies on the ability to pre-empt potential risks, and
implement appropriate measures to affect offenders’ motivation to commit crime,
disrupt their attempts, and minimise the consequences. As seen in the other chapters
of this book, prevention measures are highly specific, and effective implementation
requires relevant tactical information. In particular, prior knowledge of the presence
and location of problematic UAVs is needed to decide when and where prevention
measures should be used. Therefore, achieving UAV detection could soon become
a pressing challenge for law enforcement.
At the time of writing, a representative of DroneShield, a US company manufac-
turing UAV detection systems, indicated in the magazine Motherboard that they were
unable to honour several orders as exportation of UAV detection systems has not yet
been authorised by the US State Department (Koebler, 2014). Amongst the companies
waiting for their products to arrive feature Pinewood studios. Known for blockbusters
including Harry Potter, James Bond, Batman and Alien, the studios was planning to
M. Ritchie • F. Fioranelli
UCL Department of Electronic and Electrical Engineering, London, UK
H. Borrion (*)
UCL Department of Security and Crime Science, London, UK
e-mail: h.borrion@ucl.ac.uk
use it to prevent unauthorised pictures being taken of the Star Wars Episode VII. Several
UAVs have allegedly been flying over the movie set with the hope to capture some
images of this very closely guarded secret. In order to shed a light on the issue of UAV
detection, we investigated empirically the possibility to detect civilian micro UAVs
that would threaten the (commercial) interests of Star Wars.
The chapter is divided into five sections. In the first, we provide an overview of
current UAV uses and list their domains of application. In the second, we introduce
the less glamorous side of UAVs, and identify various ways in which UAVs may
cause or facilitate the occurrence of crime. In the third section, we discuss the main
challenges for law enforcement. As part of this discussion, we present current capabil-
ity gaps that ought to be addressed in order to achieve micro UAV crime prevention.
In the fourth section, we focus on one of those capabilities, and review some of the
principles that have been proposed to detect micro UAVs. Finally, the chapter presents
the physical principles behind radar detection, and concludes with an experimental
study to answer our initial question: Could a conventional radar system be used to
detect civilian micro UAVs that would fly toward Pinewood studios’ movie set?
UAVs can now be found in a range of sizes, shapes and contexts. Their size classification
range are commonly noted as nano, micro, tactical, MALE (Medium Altitude Long
Endurance) and HALE (High Altitude Long Endurance) as well as others. Musial (2008)
provided a comprehensive description of various system architectures for airships, fixed-
wing systems, helicopters and quadrotor UAVs. Over the years, large systems have dem-
onstrated their capacity to produce a real game-change in war theatres. Systems such as
General Atomics’ Predator have shown that military missions can now be technically
carried out from centres situated thousands of kilometres away from targets (Mayer,
2009). However, their impact is mostly perceived through TV documentaries and news
reports. In contrast, smaller civilian UAVs have been operating for several years in our
urban and rural environments, and already delivered local benefits to the population.
Micro UAVs weighing just a few hundred grams, for example, have been used by police
forces to support law enforcement operations (Pilkington, 2014) and, in particular, to
improve situation awareness. The “UK’s first drone arrest” occurred in 2010, according
to a newspaper report that detailed the contribution of an airborne thermal imaging cam-
era to the arrest of a car thief (Hull, 2010). Whilst police UAVs have so far been restricted
to an information gathering role (Constantinescu & Nedelcut, 2011, Lega, Ferrara,
Persechino, & Bishop, 2014), platforms carrying more active payloads are now adver-
tised by several manufacturers. Amongst them, a “riot control” UAV that can make use
of “pepper spray, plastic bullets, paintballs, strobe lights and […] lasers” has recently
appeared on the market (Kelion, 2014). Beside these ethically questionable applications,
UAVs are also employed in more mundane activities such as crop mapping, sheep herd-
ing, delivery of medical equipment, environmental monitoring, search and rescue, air-
craft inspection and filming. Beyond commercial uses, UAVs are also employed in a
range of recreational activities including drone racing (Bloom, 2014).
21 Micro UAV Crime Prevention: Can We Help Princess Leia? 361
In the coming years, the number of small-UAVs, micro UAVs and commer-
cial licences are expected to increase exponentially (TGC, 2014). UAVs are
likely to be used for more applications including, for example, pollination.
Equally, the number of households having their own UAV will probably increase
significantly. This is supported by the fact that these systems already outper-
form a number of popular products (e.g. handheld digital cameras, kites and
remote control model aircraft) and that new applications will become possible
as UAVs are designed to perform more advanced functions (e.g. collision
avoidance).
Through their surveillance capability, UAVs already play an important role in law
enforcement, for example to provide situation awareness during protests. In the
future, it is possible that more widely and systematic use of UAV swarms will allow
police forces to further reduce crime rates. For example, advanced UAVs deployed
near luxury stores could be employed to track so-called “smash-and-grab gangs” as
they leave a crime scene on motorcycles. However, dual-use issues are common to
most advanced technologies (Nissen, 2014), and the impact of UAVs on society will
not be limited to controlling crime. Greater use of such systems could also bring
about various risks (Lucas, 2015).
As an analogy, the introduction of mobile phone (as an example of recent techno-
logical innovation) has been accompanied by various crime issues. Mailley, Garcia,
Whitehead, and Farrell (2008) pointed out that mobile phones handsets are frequently
stolen by criminals; they give criminals enhanced communication capability to plan
future crime; and they can be used to remotely trigger explosive devices. Finally they
make their users more vulnerable to certain types of attacks, e.g. vishing (IC3, 2008).
In the case of UAVs, coarse examination of potential threats and vulnerabilities
reveals various risks that those systems could cause or exacerbate. These risks can
be classified into three categories. These are described below with illustrating
examples of previous incidents.
Criminal activities targeting UAVs, payloads or operators
• In 2010, three UAVs used for environmental research work were stolen at the
University of Bergen (Reuder, 2010).
Misuses and Criminal activities perpetrated using UAVs
• In April 2014, “a man […] has become the first person in the UK to be success-
fully prosecuted for the dangerous and illegal flying of an unmanned aircraft”
after flying over a nuclear submarine facility (CAA, 2014).
Legal UAV-related activities that facilitate crime
• UAV operators may be more vulnerable to theft of properties due to the distrac-
tion caused by operating a UAV.
362 M. Ritchie et al.
The rise of mobile phones has been accompanied by an increase in mobile phone
thefts. To address this phenomenon dedicated police teams were created such as the
National Mobile Phone Crime Unit in the UK. Given the similarity between these
two domains, one may expect that, sooner or later, specialist police units with dedi-
cated techniques and equipment will be established to focus exclusively on crimes
involving UAVs.
In terms of operational capabilities, such police units may seek to have the same
control over UAVs as with other vehicles. Their powers may even be extended fur-
ther to compare with those employed in air traffic control.
• Verification and Evidence collection
– Verifying the administrative status of UAVs, e.g. licence and insurance.
– Verifying compliance to legal requirements, e.g. model, weight, activity,
flight path, altitude, and distance to people.
– Verifying compliance to the code of practice for surveillance technology and
personal information (e.g. ICO, 2014).
• Control
– Operating UAVs
– Grounding UAVs
– Requisitioning UAVs
One of the main challenges for law enforcement is that UAVs can help reduce the
risk of being caught for criminals. First, those systems can be used to carry out cer-
tain actions remotely and anonymously; second, they can evade capture attempts by
moving to higher altitudes; and third, they can disappear relatively rapidly and leave
very little trace at the crime scene.
Another challenge is that a wider range of existing prevention measures have
been developed and implemented in the built environment with the assumptions
that certain events are unlikely to occur because they are too “dirty, difficult or
dangerous”. However, the new capability of UAVs, and their suitability to so-
called 3D tasks place new constraints on police forces, change the risks, and poten-
tially undermine the effectiveness of existing crime prevention and crime detection
measures.
In order for the police to collect tactical information about, or take control of,
UAVs, some basic capabilities would be required. These are described below with a
technical definition for each of them.
• Detection: ascertaining the presence or absence of an entity in given geographic
and time domains
– Detecting UAVs
– Detecting individuals operating a UAV
21 Micro UAV Crime Prevention: Can We Help Princess Leia? 363
UAV Detection
At this stage, UAV crime prevention relies extensively on the ability to detect and
localise platforms or their operators. Without precise information about the presence
and location of UAVs, control measures would be implemented with limited efficacy.
Multi-model netted sensor fence have been proposed to detect and classify rela-
tively large airborne vehicles such as light aircraft. Shi, Fante, Yoder, and Crawford
(2005), for example, provide a comprehensive description of such a system: “The
primary component in the system is a radar fence capable of detecting approaching
targets and providing a cue to two other sensors that perform the discrimination task.
[…] Acoustic microphone arrays [detecting the sound originating from the aircraft’s
engine(s)] are used as the second sensor modality in the system […] (1) to provide
target direction of arrival (DOA) estimates that will then be fused with radar measure-
ments to form a target track; (2) to provide a means for target identification and clas-
sification; and (3) to mitigate false alarms.” Finally “the third sensor modality in the
fence is an optical system which is cued by the radar and/or acoustic sensors and slews
in angle to acquire, track and identify the potential airborne threat. A boresighted vis-
ible camera is also used for improved target resolution during the daytime.”
364 M. Ritchie et al.
Attempts to develop a UAV detection system have been made during a recent
military competition where one team developed a multi-sensor system whose archi-
tecture resembles the one described above. “The team used radar for the long-range
detection outside the city canyons, an acoustic sweep for close range detection,
video cameras for a visual on the target and finally a RF Geolocation, a sensor that
detects video downlink signals from the UAVs” (Azimi, 2012).
Other attempts to develop acoustic sensing system have been published by Case,
Zelino, and Rigling (2008). Such technology is becoming more mature and can now
be found in the market. For example, the company Droneshield (2014) advertises an
acoustic detection system that compares the ambient audio signal recorded by a
microphone with common drone acoustic signatures in a database.
Detection can also be performed based on the data transmitted between UAVs
and their ground station controllers, as this data link is always present within com-
mercial micro-UAVs it can be exploited for detection. Peacock & Johnstone (2013)
developed and tested a detection method “capable of detecting and identifying a
Parrot AR Drone v2 within Wi-Fi operational range”. In the private sector, a US
company called Domestic Drone Countermeasures currently advertises a prototype
drone detection system (Mlot, 2014). Their system is designed to detect data signals
propagating in a given area, and applies a standard triangulation technique to deter-
mine the location of the transmitters. The presence of drones is then inferred by
monitoring the presence of unknown transmitters suddenly appearing on the spec-
trum. According to their website, “the Primary Command and Control Module can
typically communicate with nodes up to 200 ft away. Each RF Sensor Node can
typically detect drones within 50 ft in all directions. Frequency detection range
1 MHz to 6.8 GHz” (DDC, 2014).
Radar Detection
signal contains information on the targets range and Doppler as well as more subtle
information such as its resonance frequency, micro-Doppler and range profile.
Micro-Doppler is the phenomenon of the observed micro-motions on top of the
bulk main Doppler component of target’s motion, such as the blade rotations of a
helicopter on top of its forwards main Doppler velocity (Chen, Tahmoush, &
Miceli, 2014).
Depending on their complexity, radar systems can simply provide an indication
on the absence or presence of targets in the area of interest, as well as estimate addi-
tional information on the number, distance, spatial location, speed, as well as other
characteristics of the targets. Compared with optical sensors, radar systems are less
sensitive to weather conditions, generally operate over longer ranges and can provide
detection capabilities during both day and night, regardless of fog, haze, or clouds.
Radar systems have been used for many decades in a variety of civilian and military
applications. Practical uses include air traffic control (Nolan, 2010), geological surveys
(Oyan et al., 2012), terrain mapping (Dubois et al., 1995), prediction of potentially
dangerous weather phenomena such as severe storms and tornadoes (Alberty & Crum,
1990), vital signs monitoring (Sachs et al., 2014), collision avoidance for aircrafts and
cars (Rohling, 2010), surveillance of areas in war and security enforcement contexts
(Charvat et al., 2012).
The probability of successful target detection and the range at which this can be
achieved depends on numerous parameters, such as transmit power, the fraction of
time when the energy is transmitted (“duty cycle”), the capacity of concentrating the
electromagnetic energy towards a particular direction (“antenna gain”), the fre-
quency of the transmitted waves, the power of the thermal noise, the power of the
background of undesired echoes (called “clutter”), and the power of other signals at
the same frequency generated by external sources (called “interference”), which can
mask the reflections from the targets of interest. An important effect on the detec-
tion performance is also played by the reflective properties of the target, which
366 M. Ritchie et al.
depend on its shape and physical composition, as well as on the frequency and
direction of arrival of the transmitted waveforms. These properties are generally
summarised in the concept of target Radar Cross Section (RCS) which has the unit
of an area (square metres) and is a measure of the power backscattered by the target
towards the direction of the radar (Stimson et al., 2014). All the aforementioned
parameters can be combined in the “radar equation”, which defines the detection
performance of a radar system. A more detailed description of the fundamental
principles of radar can be found in (Stimson et al., 2014).
Experiment
Micro UAVs are challenging targets for radar detection because of their size and the
fact that they are made mostly of low conductivity materials such as plastic, rubber,
and foam, which reduces their RCS in comparison with metallic targets.
An experiment was performed using a radar system in order to assess the detect-
ability of UAVs and signal properties seen by a radar.
Aim
To assess the suitability of conventional radar systems to be used for UAV detection,
we set out to empirically answer three questions:
1. Can a conventional radar system be used to detect micro UAVs hovering or fly-
ing over an area of interest?
2. What do the reflected radar signals from a typical micro UAV look like? Both in
the time domain (RCS) and Doppler domain (micro-Doppler).
3. What tactical information can a conventional radar system provide in the context
of crime prevention? For example can intension of the drone movement be char-
acterised. If the drone is only hovering in place it may not be a great threat, but
if it is moving directly towards an important aspect such as a building / protected
airspace it may be a greater threat.
Method
Design
The quantity measured during this study is the electromagnetic power received at
the radar system after the transmission of a radar pulse. When a small UAV is pres-
ent in the area under test, the electromagnetic signal is reflected back towards the
radar, and the level of received power increases compared with the situation of no
21 Micro UAV Crime Prevention: Can We Help Princess Leia? 367
targets present in the area under test, when only noise return is received at the
radar. This increase in received power provides an indication that the target is pres-
ent. The time for the electromagnetic power to propagate from the radar to the
UAV and back to the radar is related to the physical distance of the target. Each
single pulse is regularly transmitted according to a specific frequency (Pulse
Repetition Frequency, PRF), and the electromagnetic power after each transmis-
sion is recorded as a function of time.
The characteristics of the returned signals were analysed with the aim of defining
how a radar sees a micro drone and what information on the target can be gained
using a radar. These points are important when considering using a radar system to
detect, track and classify micro drones.
Instruments
Radar: NetRAD
The radar system used in this study is the netted radar system NetRAD which has
been developed over a number of years by the Radar Group at University College
London (Derham et al., 2007). NetRAD has been used primarily to gather data for
sea clutter analysis and maritime targets detection in an experimental campaign in
South Africa and in the UK, providing novel results in this research domain
(Al-Ashwal et al., 2011, 2014a, 2014b).
NetRAD consists of three different nodes, each including both a radar trans-
mitter and a receiver. The nodes operate in a networked mode (hence NetRAD)
where they are online on a local network and can be controlled via remote access
through a laptop during the measurements. Networked radars have many advan-
tages over individual radar systems, such as enhanced target signatures, advanta-
geous properties of the clutter, multi-perspective views on targets (Inggs et al.,
2014). Hence, such a system would likely be a good candidate for this applica-
tion of detecting small drones which may be difficult to detect and track using a
single radar.
In order to preserve the coherency (i.e. synchronisation) of the data collected at
each NetRAD node, the same clock signal has to be shared in all the nodes. In its
basic configuration, NetRAD is used in “wired” mode where one of the nodes works
as “master node” generating and providing the same clock signal to the other nodes.
This is achieved via Ethernet cables that physically connect the nodes. NetRAD can
also operate in “wireless” mode where each node is equipped with a GPS Disciplined
Oscillator (GPSDO) which provides the clock signal thanks to the synchronisation
to the same constellation of GPS satellites. This configuration avoids having cables
that run between the nodes, and therefore allows longer physical separation between
the nodes during the measurements
NetRAD transmits electromagnetic pulses at a carrier frequency of 2.4 GHz—the
same frequency as the IEEE 802.11 standard Wi-Fi—with 45 MHz bandwidth.
Parameters such as pulse length, pulse repetition frequency, and number of recorded
368 M. Ritchie et al.
pulses can be selected by the user and flexibly changed at each recording. For this
study the following values have been used: 0.6 μs pulse length, PRF between 1 and
5 kHz, and a duration of between 1 and 10 s of recorded data for each measurement.
The transmitted pulse was modulated with a linear chirp. Each node is equipped with
a directional antenna with 24 dBi gain and 10° by 10° beam-width. The power of the
transmitted signal was 200 mW (23 dBm). NetRAD can also use high power amplifier
with over 400 W peak transmitted power, which allows the radar to operate at ranges
up to approximately 2 km. For this study of UAV detection the high power amplifier
of NetRAD was not used, as the UAV was flying relatively close to the radar, but the
results shown would also translate to longer ranges when using more power.
Figure 21.2 shows one of the NetRAD nodes being deployed in the measurement
area, with the transmitter and the receiver antenna placed onto two tripods.
Figure 21.3 shows a close-up view of the NetRAD node with cables connected at
the front and a monitor to check the computer built in within the node.
The UAV used in this study is the DJI Phantom 2 Vision+ represented in Fig. 21.4
(DJI, 2015). This is a popular commercial micro UAV which weighs about 1.3 kg
and houses a gyroscope, accelerometer, magnetometer and pressure sensor, as
well as ultrasound sensors for altitude. It also carries a 1080p HD (GoPro) camera
that can record a video footage on-board and transmit downlink video data to a
tablet or phone.
Fig. 21.2 View of a NetRAD node with transmitter and receiver antennas
21 Micro UAV Crime Prevention: Can We Help Princess Leia? 369
The DJI Phantom can be piloted through a control unit which operates at
5.8 GHz Wi-Fi (the IEEE 802.11 ac/n standards). It is therefore particularly suit-
able to be used in conjunction with NetRAD, as there is no reciprocal interference
between the 2.4 GHz waveforms transmitted and received by the radar, and the
5.8 GHz signals for the UAV flight control. The DJI phantom is also a very stable
platform, capable of flying in outdoor scenarios even in windy conditions, and easy
to control and move along a desired trajectory. It has a maximum flight time of
approximately 25 min.
The experiments for this study have been conducted in a large open football
field at the UCL sports ground to the North of London. The three NetRAD
nodes were placed along a straight line and spaced 40 m. Node 3 was used as
transmitter and receiver (noted as Tx and Rx, respectively), whereas Node 1
and Node 2 were only used as receivers. The UAV performed different types of
motion in the area under test, approximately at 70 m from the middle node, as
shown in Fig. 21.5.
In the experiment described in this chapter, both the UAV and the operator were
present in the area under test. At the beginning of the measurement, the person
started walking towards Node 3 on a linear trajectory, while the UAV started flying
in the opposite direction. The geometry of the measurement set-up and the trajecto-
ries for the person and the UAV are shown in Fig. 21.5. During a measurement the
antennas were not moved or steered; they were kept in the same position and pointed
as indicated by the dashed lines in Fig. 21.5.
Results
As indicated in the description of the radar system used in this study, each dataset
consists of a selectable amount of recorded pulses, which corresponds to a certain
time interval. The results can be presented to the user either in the form of a single
recording, hence a two-dimensional profile of received power as a function of range,
or in the form of a three-dimensional Range-Time-Intensity (RTI) image, obtained
by stacking multiple profiles next to each other.
Figure 21.6 shows the resulting data plotted as a Range Time Interval (RTI)
image for the aforementioned experiment using 10 s of data recorded at Node 3.
The colour scale in the image is logarithmic and the dynamic range normalised
to 30 dB below the strongest reflection related to the person walking close to the
radar. Both targets, the UAV and the person, are clearly visible within the data
and they intersect at approximately 5 s, when both person and UAV are at the
same distance from the radar. The UAV target is shown to be moving away from
the radar, while the individual is shown to be moving towards the radar. The
signal scattered from the UAV is weaker than that scattered by the person
because of the different RCS of the two targets. This difference is approximately
8–10 dB at a distance of about 70 m, which means in practice that the signal
scattered from the UAV is approximately ten times (an order of magnitude)
weaker than that scattered by the person. The RCS of the average person can be
0 0
1
–5
2
3 Operator
–10
4
Time [s]
5 –15
6
UAV –20
7
8
–25
9
10 –30
50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
Range [m]
Fig. 21.6 RTI image for UAV and person moving in the area under test
372 M. Ritchie et al.
50 0
–5
0 –10
Doppler [Hz]
–15
Operator
–50 –20
–25
UAV
–100 –30
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Time [s]
Fig. 21.7 Doppler-time plot of operator and UAV micro Doppler signatures
21 Micro UAV Crime Prevention: Can We Help Princess Leia? 373
Limitations
This chapter investigates some of the issues that would be faced by society as a
result of the growing use (and potentially misuse) of UAVs. We discuss some of the
tasks law enforcement would need to achieve in order to prevent UAV crime, and
highlight the need for more effective UAV detection capability. Drawing from the
example of Pinewood studio trying to keep Star Wars’ movie sets confidential, we
ask whether a radar system could be used as a non-co-operative system to determine
the presence and location of micro UAVs threatening Princess Leia’s privacy.
374 M. Ritchie et al.
In the second half of this chapter this question is examined empirically. Using a
conventional radar (NetRAD), we demonstrate that such a system can detect micro
UAVs hovering/flying over an area of interest, showed the relative signal levels in
comparison to a human target and finally provide practical information in the con-
text of crime prevention. We also point out that with limited information about the
structure of the target (e.g. presence of propellers), a high false alarm rate would be
expected as UAVs could not be differentiated from birds.
Considering the limitations of the radar system used in this study, it could be hypothe-
sised that UAV detection performance can be improved in actual systems developed specifi-
cally for this purpose. Choosing higher operational frequency, compared to that used in the
experiments, and introducing steerable antennas during measurements to track the UAVs
motion would provide substantial benefits, including allowing discrimination between birds
and UAVs. However, the effect of urban structures (e.g. buildings) on the radar signal would
need to be determined in order to evaluate the effectiveness of radar systems for UAV
detection.
Acknowledgements This work was supported by the Engineering and Physical Sciences
Research Council (EPSRC) [grant number EP/G037264/1]. The authors would like to thank Prof.
Hugh Griffiths for his support, which has been helped greatly by the IET A.F. Harvey Engineering
Prize 2013.
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Chapter 22
Technology for Crime and Crime Prevention:
A Supply Side Analysis
Introduction
Security technology is increasingly elegant. Consider the modern car. The driver
walks up to the vehicle with the car’s RFID-fob about them and the door automati-
cally unlocks. The presence of the RFID-fob allows the car to be started—there is
no need to insert it into a slot. The wing mirrors open. The alarm, tracker and immo-
biliser are deactivated. As the car pulls away the central door locks engage, reducing
the opportunity for offenders to open them and steal, for example, a handbag, at
traffic lights. The inbuilt distributed satnav device (its distribution making it diffi-
cult to steal) warns the driver when they exceed the speed limit (deterring or avoid-
ing inadvertent speeding). The top-notch sound system plays, but its parts are also
distributed around the car so it is at no risk of theft. A warning bleeps when the car
veers too far towards the other side of the road, reducing the risk of negligent driv-
ing and collisions. A light warns the driver of a car in their blind spot (ditto). The
driver stops to buy fuel. They press an internal button to open the fuel tank cover
(siphoning off fuel is more difficult since the button is only accessed from inside the
car, and this is easier to use and more secure than a key). At-pump credit card pay-
ment eliminates the possibility that the driver exposes themselves and the car to risk
if they go inside to pay. But if the driver walks to pay for fuel, the car’s security
measures are automatically reactivated, reducing risk of opportunistic thefts.
When the driver returns, security is once again automatically deactivated. On arrival
at the destination, the car automatically parks safely avoiding unintended damage to
other vehicles. As the driver walks away the locks automatically engage, the win-
dows shut, the wing mirrors fold back, the alarm is activated, the immobiliser is set,
and the tracker is armed (all making theft of and from cars more difficult or risky).
The driver has to do nothing. The car secures itself automatically. The car’s security
is its default state, the security is not obtrusive or ugly, and the effects of the
increased security have dramatically cut car crime in recent years (as detailed fur-
ther below). No-one’s rights or liberties are infringed and the monetary costs are
low whilst the convenience as well as crime prevention benefits are substantial.
Good security goes hand-in-hand with improved quality of life.
This chapter explores the relationship between crime and technological develop-
ments, focussing on car theft as an example. It shows that technology can both
increase and reduce opportunities for crime. It argues that security has to be “ele-
gant” if it is to be effective in preventing crime and introduces “DAPPER” as an
acronym to capture the qualities required. Those trying to design crime prevention
need to think in DAPPER terms if devices are to be widely adopted and used. Finally
the chapter argues that DAPPER technologies may need a governmental or regula-
tory push if they are to be introduced.
If more crime opportunities are supplied, more will be used. If fewer are sup-
plied, fewer will be used. So says supply-side criminology as we conceive it here.
Technology can be both a source of crime opportunities and a means of curtailing
opportunities. It cuts both ways. Producers of technology often generate opportuni-
ties unintentionally. They sometimes curtail them intentionally. Producers of tech-
nology also sometimes unintentionally reduce the supply of crime opportunities.
They may very occasionally create crime opportunities intentionally. Supply-side
criminology proposes that reducing crime opportunities is the key to crime control.
For the purpose of this chapter we are using a very broad definition of technology:
the use of science to invent useful things or to solve problems. Hence, we do not con-
fine ourselves to the various branches of engineering. We also refer to some simple
(and also old) technologies as well as more sophisticated (and contemporary) ones.
Table 22.1 presents examples of technological developments that have either
deliberately or inadvertently marginally increased or reduced the supply of crime
opportunities.
Those technologies that create crime opportunities intentionally are orientated to
solving problems that would otherwise be faced by prospective offenders. Once the
pro-crime technologies are developed and the erstwhile problem for the offender
has been solved, they increase the supply of opportunities that would otherwise be
closed and hence increase levels of crime. Table 22.1 shows a range of examples of
technological developments that are intended to be useful to offenders (albeit that
there are some nifty, if disingenuous, rationalisations for developing the technolo-
gies, for example that it is being done to reveal the weaknesses in security as a kind
of public service!). Some crime-enabling crime-focused technologies are old and
simple, such as knuckle dusters and flick knives; others are recent and comprise
information technology orientated to damaging the network or to enabling offend-
ers to steal identities and to profit from doing so.
22 Technology for Crime and Crime Prevention: A Supply Side Analysis 379
Table 22.1 Examples of technology and its intended and unintended effects on the supply of
crime opportunities
Create opportunity Reduce opportunity
Intentionally Speed limit detectors; flick knives; Security technology, for example
knuckle dusters; skimmers for credit centrally locked cars, milled coins,
cards; innovations in mood-changing safes, alarms, chastity belts, dye
drugs; RFID jammers; phone tags, RFID tags, DNA profiling,
hacking tools; computer viruses, CCTV, niche-free nappy changing
worms, trojans and bots tables, blue lights in public
lavatories, smoke cloaks, mosquito
alarms, airport scanners
Inadvertently Mobile phones; satnav devices, Double glazing; street lighting;
laptop computers; cordless public lavatories; supplying less
screwdrivers/drills; online banking; toxic gas to households; online
tap and pay cards; public lavatories; shopping; central air conditioning.
online shopping; rohypnol;
automatic weapons
Technologies may also be useful to offenders, even if that was not the intention
of their developers: first they can produce goods that comprise suitable targets for
theft, and second they can provide resources facilitating criminal acts. Ron Clarke
(1999, 2012) describes the attributes of goods suitable for theft with his acronym,
“CRAVED”. This refers to concealable, removable, accessible, valuable, enjoyable
and disposable. Other things being equal an increase in the supply of goods with
these characteristics will increase opportunities for theft. Technology has helped
create them. Mobile phones comprise an extreme example, cars another and the
internet a third. Cars and mobile phones have been stolen in very large numbers.
Mobile phones and cars also contribute to increases in crime opportunities because
of their obvious usefulness to offenders in the planning and conduct of crimes.
Other postwar technological developments that have inadvertently increased the
supply of suitable targets and thereby yielded a substantial crime harvest include car
radios, lightweight televisions, satnavs, credit cards, laptop computers, digital cam-
eras, and internet chat rooms.
Some technological developments may reduce the supply of crime opportunities
as a by-product of their intended use. Take technology-driven efforts to deal with
uncomfortably hot or cold weather. In the Northern hemisphere this has led to wide-
spread installation of double-glazed (double-paned) windows. In the South it has
led to the widespread installation of air conditioning. Double-glazing makes break-
ing into houses more difficult. Moreover it often includes inbuilt window and door
locks that are automatically activated when the door or window is shut. On the other
hand inbuilt air conditioning makes keeping doors and windows open less likely in
the hot weather, and hence reduces the supply of opportunities for walk-in burglar-
ies. Many households, particularly in areas of North America with significant sea-
sonal variations in weather, may have central air conditioning as well as
double-glazed windows and doors.
380 G. Farrell and N. Tilley
and cost effective manner. Whereas, say, police patrol requires significant recurrent
costs, inbuilt technology is often a more cost efficient one-off cost. Moreover, tech-
nology purchasing costs often fall over time due to economies of scale and
competition.
Tables 22.2 and 22.3 give examples respectively of ways in which technological
developments have reduced and increased the supply of crime opportunities by
increasing or decreasing effort, increasing or decreasing risk, reducing or increasing
rewards, removing or adding excuses, or removing or adding provocation.
382 G. Farrell and N. Tilley
Car crime accounted for some 25 % of all recorded crime in England and Wales in
the early 1990s. Since then the number of incidents has fallen substantially. Figure
22.1 shows the trend.
Technology has played a large part in making cars more secure from crime. Figure
22.2 shows the percentage of cars on the road in England and Wales with various
security devices installed, as found in the Crime Survey of England and Wales (previ-
ously called the British Crime Survey). It shows that between 1991 and 2006–2007
the proportion of cars with central locking rose from around one in three to almost
nine in 10. Likewise there was a substantial growth in the proportion of cars with
alarms and with electronic immobilisers. At the same time there was a fall in the pro-
portion of cars with window etching and mechanical immobilisers. More sophisti-
cated electronic technology was becoming more widespread at the expense of simpler
mechanical technology. The survey only distinguished electronic and mechanical
immobilisers from 1999 but it is clear that electronic immobilisers spread rapidly
from the early 1990s and that this fits well with the onset of the decline in car theft.
Farrell, Tilley, and Tseloni (2014) calculated the trajectory of the spread of electronic
immobilisers to estimate that the rise was underway by the early 1990s. Similarly they
discuss how the timing of the spread of immobilisers and declines in vehicle theft
have also coincided in other countries, and conclude that this is not a coincidence!
The effectiveness of the security devices fitted to cars can be shown in two ways.
First, as indicated in Fig. 22.3 some modes of entry have fallen dramatically since
Fig. 22.1 Rate of vehicle-related theft in England and Wales 1981–2013 (Crime Survey for
England and Wales)
22 Technology for Crime and Crime Prevention: A Supply Side Analysis 383
100
Central locking
Percent of vehicle-owning households 90
Electronic immobiliser
80 Car alarm
Window etching
70 Mechanical immobiliser
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
01
02
03
04
05
06
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
Year
20
20
20
20
20
20
Fig. 22.2 Changes in the percentage of cars with various security devices (Crime Survey for
England and Wales)
Fig. 22.3 Method of entry for theft of motor vehicles 1995–2010 (Crime Survey for England and
Wales)
1995, whilst others have remained the same or increased (Farrell et al., 2014). The
falls have occurred most dramatically for forced entry, where improvements in
security might have some effect. Where entry is not forced, for example where the
car is left open or where the offender has a key, there has not been so steep a fall.
Indeed the number of thefts where the offender has a key has been increasing
recently, maybe as a result in part of burglaries where the thief has acquired a car
key and then stolen the car.
384 G. Farrell and N. Tilley
Table 22.4 Security protection factors in England and Wales, as calculated from data included in
the 2001–2007 sweeps of the CSEW
Security protection factor
Security configuration Theft of motor vehicle Theft from motor vehicle
ACET 25.4 6.6
CEM 25.2 2.5
ACEM 19.1 5.7
ACE 15.3 5.5
ACM 12.8 6.4
CE 11.8 2.8
ACEMT 10.3 5.4
AEM 8.4 3.0
EM 7.7 1.7
AE 5.6 2.4
CM 5.4 2.6
AC 5.0 3.9
E 4.0 1.7
AM 3.7 2.3
M 2.8 1.9
C 2.7 2.0
A 1.2 1.5
No security 1.0 1.0
Key: A alarm, C central locking, E electronic immobiliser, M mechanical immobiliser, T tracking
device
The car had furnished a rich supply of crime opportunities until the early 1990s,
both because car theft was straightforward and because there were growing num-
bers of cars for the offender to choose from. Numbers of cars on the road have
continued to grow whilst numbers of car thefts have fallen, especially where secu-
rity devices have made offending more difficult or more risky.
A variety of security devices are often found in a car. A second indicator of the
effectiveness of security devices comes from a comparison of the protection fur-
nished by individual security devices and suites of devices, in comparison to cars
with no security. Table 22.4 shows the “Security Protection Factor” (SPFs) for the
more common combinations of security device fitted to cars, as estimated from
British Crime Survey sweeps from 2001 to 2007 (Farrell, Tilley, Tseloni, & Mailley,
2011, Farrell, Tseloni, & Tilley, 2011). The SPFs show the likelihood of a theft
where there is no security to that for a car with a given security combination. Hence,
the first line shows that a car fitted with a combination of Alarm, Central locking,
Electronic immobiliser and Tracking device (ACET) is 25 times less at risk of theft
of a motor vehicle than a vehicle with no security. The list is ranked for theft of a
motor vehicle. The overall finding is clear from simply scanning the findings for
different combinations. Larger combinations tend to be more effective than smaller
ones; inclusion of electronic immobilisers tends to help prevent thefts of motor
vehicles; and inclusion of alarms tends to help prevent theft from motor vehicles.
22 Technology for Crime and Crime Prevention: A Supply Side Analysis 385
This accords with expectations. Immobilisers make it more difficult to drive cars
away but not to break in and steal things from them (for an overview of the extensive
evidence on the importance of immobilisers in preventing theft of cars, see Brown,
2013a). Alarms may deter people from breaking into cars, but do nothing to stop
thieves driving them away if they do get in. They reduce the supply of opportunities
for different types of crime.
A similar approach has been used to tease out variation in the effectiveness of
security devices for preventing household burglary (Tseloni & Thompson, 2015;
Tseloni, Thompson, Grove, Tilley, & Farrell, 2014). Here, door and window locks
were found to be particularly effective as well as external security lighting and inter-
nal lights on timers. Perhaps surprisingly, household burglar alarms were found to
convey little or no additional reduction in burglary risk (Tilley, Farrell, & Clarke,
2015; Tilley, Farrell, Grove, Thompson, & Tseloni, 2015). It is also telling that, over
the period when locks and lights have become more sophisticated (as well as frames
and panes of glass due to the use of reinforced or stronger materials), more inele-
gant types of security declined. That is, window bars and grilles, which are unsightly,
have been in long-term decline. Alongside the steep declines in household burglary
that have been experienced, these patterns, we suggest, are attributable to the spread
of elegant security and the decline of inelegant security. This is important because it
means possibilities of a “fortress society” are, perhaps counter-intuitively, waning
in parallel with crime’s decline, and that some common fears of security are often
misplaced. Hence, our notion of “elegant security” is discussed next.
Some technologies can be clunky, ugly, inconvenient, costly and intrusive. That
which is convenient, cheap, and unobtrusive is more liable to be used and less liable
to provoke opposition. In cars ugly, heavy, iron mechanical immobilisers are applied
manually to lock the gearshift or steering wheel in place. This comprises a clunky,
inconvenient and intrusive technology to make it more difficult to steal cars, and
moreover they are not particularly effective—clubs and crook-locks are often easily
overcome by thieves.
We use the acronym, DAPPER, to capture the attributes of “elegant security”.
Dapper refers to
Default (the default position is secure rather than insecure);
Aesthetic (the form of the security is either pleasing or neutral);
Powerful (the preventive effect is strong and not easily circumvented);
Principled (the security measure is acceptable to all, ideally increasing rather than
reducing liberties);
Effortless (the security requires little or no time or thought to engage), and
Rewarding (the benefits exceed the costs).
386 G. Farrell and N. Tilley
As detailed in the opening paragraph of this chapter, the elegance of the technology
associated with car crime reduction is not incidental to its efficacy. We regard it as
essential. The security devices have the potential to reduce the supply of crime
opportunities. Their practical acceptance, adoption, and routine application how-
ever, are also important if that potential is to be realised. It is to this that elegance is
orientated. In the case of car crime, security has indeed become more elegant.
Opportunities have declined and in spite of the increase in numbers of cars on the
road, numbers of car crimes have dropped precipitously.
Conclusion
This chapter has argued that technology is important in the supply of crime oppor-
tunities. It can increase or decrease them intentially or unintentionally. The chapter
has shown that technology affects the supply of criminal opportunities in five distin-
guishable ways—by increasing or decreasing the effort required to commit a crime;
by increasing or decreasing the risks involved in committing a crime; by increasing
or decreasing the rewards from committing a crime; by adding or removing an
excuse for a crime; and by increasing or decreasing the provocation of a crime. The
use of technology in the prevention of car crime comprises an instructive case study.
There is strong evidence that technology has been effective in producing substantial
drops in the theft of and from cars since the early 1990s. Moreover, the technology
has become increasingly “elegant”, by which we mean that it is operated by default,
is unobtrusive, is pleasing (or at least non-displeasing) aesthetically, brings benefits
that exceed its costs and does not threaten civil liberties.
We believe that the success of car security devices including, in particular, their
individual and collective “elegance” has important implications for the develop-
ment of future security technologies. Consumers have embraced changes in retail
methods, the development of credit and debit cards, multipurpose mobile phones
and lightweight laptop computers. These developments have also increased the sup-
ply of crime opportunities. Responding with or, better still, incorporating powerful,
elegant security technologies to curtail those opportunities seems to us to be impor-
tant. It would be better that the producers of these crime opportunities try to contain
them. Failing that it may be necessary for governments to step in using regulatory
powers to require that security be added to reduce crime opportunities that are,
sometimes unknowingly, created (see Brown, 2013b; Clarke & Newman, 2005 on
forms of persuasion). But events of recent decades suggest there are grounds for
optimism that security technology can dramatically reduce crime while increas-
ing the liberty of all.
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Index
A predictive, 218
ABMs. See Agent-based models (ABMs) properties, 220
Aborted robberies strengths, 219–220
bystanders, 29 temporal dynamics, 219
characteristics, 24, 25 Ambiguity function waveform analysis, 347, 348
co-offenders, 30 Anticipatory prevention, 235
doubt, 30 ABM-simulations, 236, 237
fear of victims, 30 artificial society, 237
home robberies attraction values, 238
gloves, 26 built-in prevention elements, 237
plan, 25 commercial/entertainment businesses, 239
scared, 25 computational methods, 240
unexpected events, 25 guardian agents, 237
victims, 25, 26 guardian movement, 240
moral concerns, 29 offenders and targets, 237
physical, 29–30 police patrol strategies, 239
planning robberies, 27–28 route organisation, 239
police, 28–29 simulation and practical application, 236
robbery events, 22 stylised facts, 236
victims, 30 surveillance strategies, 238
Accompanying Administrative Document tax evasion simulation, 238
(AAD), 257 victimised targets, 239
Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome vulnerable point, 239
(HIV/AIDS), 297
Agent-based models (ABMs), 235
advantages, 219 B
applications, 216, 217 Banca Popolare Italiana (BPI) cases, 261
characteristics, 219 British Crime Survey, 382, 384
complementary approach, 216 Broker, 160, 195
computational criminology, 220, 221 Brothels
computational model, 215 alcohol, 299
decision-making process, 219 legal and illegal, 306
explanatory (see Explanatory ABMs) geographic distribution, 300
mechanisms, 216 licenced, 298
observation and manipulation, 219 unlicenced, 299
C failures, 37
Car crime, 382–385 gang-related violence, 134, 137
Carousel fraud, 257 global level, 1
CAV. See Consumer Affairs Victoria (CAV) logistic regression model, 135
CCO. See Conjunction of criminal opportunity longitudinal modeling techniques, 136
(CCO) network approach, 135
Certification of Destruction (COD), 257 SCP (see Situational crime prevention (SCP))
City-to-city network, 172 social network analysis, 4
Colombian cocaine, 189 street gangs, 4
Commercial sex. See Victorian commercial technical process, 9
sex market terrorism, 1
Computational criminology, 220, 221 victimization, 135
Conjunction of criminal opportunity (CCO), 322 Crime prevention intervention
Consumer Affairs Victoria (CAV), 302, agents, 226
304, 306 characteristics, 229
CPL. See Crime proofing of legislation (CPL) crime events, 222, 223, 227
Crime drop, 332, 386 crime pattern theory, 226
Crime mapping depict criminological theory, 228
criminal events, 114, 115 environmental criminology, 222
ecological/atomistic fallacy, 115 implementation and evaluation design, 221
environmental design, 113 mechanisms, 224, 228
kernel density calculations, 114 optimal test, 223
kernel density mapping, 116–118 requirements, 227
local spatial analysis, 118–121 routine activity approach, 225
MAUP, 116 simulation study, 224, 225
sophistication without complexity, 121 social systems, 229
spatial crime analysis, 116 temporal and spatio-temporal variants, 225
temporal aggregation, 122–124 types, evaluation, 222
Crime mapping and spatial analysis validation, 228
crime analysis, 106 Crime proofing
crime control, 106 IA, 251
crime data/calls, 105 in European Union, 249, 250
crime theory, 103–105 risk assessment, 252
criminal opportunity, 101 Crime proofing of legislation (CPL), 276
criminology, 108–109 ex ante evaluation, 275
environmental criminology, 101 ex post evaluation, 275
hotspots, 101 ITTP, 276
mobile targets, 105 TPD (see Tobacco Products Directive
policing, 101 (TPD))
rational choice theory, 102 Crime Risk Assessment (CRA) Procedure, 269
routine activity theory, 102–103 Crime script analysis (CSA), 144, 147, 148
strengths and weaknesses, 107–108 actions, 52
Crime prevention, 307 behavior and experience, 49
adolescents, 135 child sexual offenders, 61
attacks, 2 compatible, 53
crime events, 4 crime events, 53
crime mapping, 4 criminology, 55
crime problems, 3, 4 future behaviour, 61
crime script analysis, 2, 3 human trafficking, 55
criminal networks, 2 insightful, 54
criminological role, 9 limitations, 52
detecting and tracking, 5 method/investigation, 52
development, 136 police data, 52
economic and social costs, 2 resilient, 54
Index 391
D E
Decriminalisation ECRA. See Extended crime risk assessment
brothels, 297 (ECRA)
regulate prostitution (legalisation), 298 EU Member States (MSs), 257
sex work, 293 Explanatory ABMs, 221
DG Home, 250 characteristics, 217
Dividends-received deduction system, 253 cognitive functioning, 217
DJI Phantom 2 Vision+, 368–370 crime prevention (see Crime prevention
DNA. See Dynamic analysis (DNA) intervention)
Drone formal computational model, 217
micro, 367 mechanisms, 218
microphone, 364 simulation, 217
prevention, 359 Extended crime risk assessment (ECRA)
UAS, 359 limitations, 290
Drug trafficking network, 187, 192–194, menthol and slim cigarettes
201–206 costs/harm, 289
attributes and motivations, 196 criminological assumptions, 284
broker, 195 ITTP, 284, 285, 287, 288
centrality and intermediation perpetrators, 288
(betweenness), 195 victims, 288, 289
criminal networks, 188, 189
dynamic networks analysis, 199–201
ethnographic research, 190 F
hierarchical vision, 198 Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD), 254
investigation
first phase, 201–202
second phase, 201–204 G
third phase, 202–206 Gang rivalries
legal and illicit activities, 190 bloods and crips, 166, 167
mafia organisations, 187 hyperdyadic contagion, 167
non-mafia-type organisations, 187 intra-group conflict, 168, 169
police investigations, 188 partial transitivity, triads, 168
quantitative and qualitative reciprocity, dyads, 168
information, 189 spatial structure, 169, 170
scale-free networks, 195 types, 168
sex, 197 Gang violence, 166, 174–180
SNA (see Social network analysis (SNA)) asserting dominance, 170
Spanish Guardia Civil, 189 blood/crip, 171
static network analysis, 191–192 city to city, 181
392 Index
crime enforcement T
advantages, 132 Technology
agency, 132 accelerants, 333
despite evidence, 133 arms races, 338
hierarchical organization, 133 biological lag, 330, 331
strategic analysis, 133 bridging gaps, 324
topological features, 134 CCO, 322
crime groups, 144 co-evolutionary struggles, 332, 333
crime prevention, 134–137 crime, 334, 335
crime scenes, 144, 152, 154 crime science, 321
crime scripts, 154 cultural and biological evolutionary
criminal network, 143, 150, 151, 156 perspectives, 328–330
criminologists and law enforcement design contradictions, 325
agencies, 129 disadvantages, 337, 338
dependent variable, 131 ecological interaction, 323
drug trafficking, 143 environmental circumstances, 323
effectiveness and applicability, 188 equivalent protective factors/
etiology and dynamics, 132 opportunities, 335
interdependence, 130 factors, 321
law enforcement, 151 goods and services, 321
limitations, 161 hot products approach, 321
mathematical graph theory, 130 human agents’ capabilities, 325
methamphetamine, 149 human life, 320
methodological techniques, 129 innovation and design, 335–337
neighborhood networks and influence, 131 opportunities and problems, 323, 324
network map, 150, 151 problem-oriented approach, 323, 334
organized crime, 155 psychological approach, 321
static analysis, 191–192 resources and circumstances, 324
surveillance targets, 144 scripts and clashes, 326, 327
Spanish Guardia Civil, 189, 209 social and architectural context, 325
Spatial analysis. See Crime mapping and social institution, 320
spatial analysis technological change, 319, 320
Static network analysis tools and weapons, 321
classification, 191 Testo Unico Bancario (TUB), 253
socio-demographic attributes, 191 Three-step checklist
vulnerabilities, 191 accessibility, market, 263
Step-based checklist burdensome obligations, 256
criminal implications, 254 corporate structure, 268
structure, 255–256 crime risk indicators, 256
unintended crime risks, 254–269 discretionary power, 260
Subset-to-subset network, 172 distribution/production, 259
Supply-side crime prevention economic and organised crime, 262
commercial activities, 386 economic impact, 268
crime opportunities, 379, 380 economic/legal requirements, 266
electronic security devices, 386 excise diversion funds, 257
elegant technology, 385, 386 expected effects, 265
intended and unintended effects, 378, 379 grants, subsidies and compensation
security technology, 377 schemes, 258
technology jurisdiction, 261, 262
car crime, 382, 385 law enforcement activity, 259
decline, 385 law enforcement agencies, 264
security protection factors, 384, 385 legal persons, 267
situational crime prevention, 380, 381 market/sector, 263
Swedish Tax Legislation, 249 number of criminals, 265
396 Index