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Renewable Energy in India:

Status and future Potential

Rangan Banerjee
Energy Systems Engineering
IIT Bombay, India
Primary Energy Production in
India (2003-2004)
Wind
Total 19800 PJ
0.2%

Biomass
32.9%

Coal
Hydro 36.8%
1.7%

Nuclear Oil
1.3% Nat Gas 20.7%
6.5%
Issues

#1 Sustainability Demand- Supply


Fossil fuel Reserves
Emissions
#2 Access to Rural Poor –
Equity/Affordability
#3 Attractive for Investors ?
#4 Mainstreaming of renewables and
efficiency
#5 Technology Development / Cost
Reduction
#1 Sustainability
India - Fossil Fuel reserves

Fuel Reserves Prodn R/P


2003-4 ratio
Coal +Lignite 34000 414 ~83 (P)
(Million Tonnes)
140 P+I
Oil 760 33 23 (7)
(Million Tonnes)
(117)
N.Gas 920 32 29
Billion m3

Uranium 61000 PHWR ~50


Tonnes
10GW
Data Source Plg Comm IEPC, 2006
#1 Sustainability

†Present consumption pattern


predominantly -fossil fuel
†Supply unable to meet demand
†Limited fossil reserves
†Adverse environmental impacts
†Unsustainable
†Need for transition to renewable
energy systems, nuclear, efficiency
Energy End uses

End-uses

Cooking Transport Electricity Cooling Heating

Cooling Motive Lighting Heating


Power
Renewable Energy Options

Renewable Energy

Solar Wind Biomass Small Geothermal


Hydro

Solar Solar Tidal Wave Ocean


Thermal Photovoltaic Thermal
Power Generation Options

Power Generation

Decentralised
Centralised
Distributed Generation
Grid Connected
Isolated

Demand Side Management


Cogeneration/Trigeneration
(Solar Water Heater,
Passive Solar)
Renewables in Power

† Power generation 6500 PJ -46% of Comm


Energy, 33% of total
† Installed Capacity 130,000 MW (2004),
Nuclear 2720 MW(2004)
Renewables 7855(2006)
† Gross Generation 633000GWh (2003-4)
Nuclear 17780 GWh(2003-4), ~19000
GWh
Renewables 19950 GWh (2006)
† Renewables ~ 6% of Capacity and 2-3% of
generation
Geothermal

Geothermal/
Wind (wind speed > 5.6 m/s

Solar

Wind (Annual global radiation > 2100


kWh/m2/year)
Geothermal + WInd

Geothermal + Solar
Wind + Solar

Geothermal + Wind +Solar


Wind Power

† 5000 MW installed
† Single machine upto 2.1
MW
† Average capacity factor
14%
† Capital cost Rs 4- Satara, Maharashtra
5crores/MW, Rs 2- 40
3/kWh (cost effective if Annual Load Factor (%) 35

site CF >20%) 30
25
† India 45000 /13000 MW 20
potential estimated 15

32%/ year (5 year 10

growth rate)
5
0
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
Installed Capacity (MW
Ti
ll

0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
03
/
19 92
92
-
19 93
93
-
19 94
94
-
19 95
95
-
19 96
96
-
19 97
97
-
19 98
9
19 8-9
99 9
-2
0
20 00

Year
00
-
20 01
in India

01
-
20 02
02
-
20 03
03
-
20 04
04
-
20 05
05
Ti -06
ll
09
/0
6
Trend of wind energy development
Power Generated Annualy (GWh)..
T
il l

0
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500

500
03
/9
2
19
92
-9
3
19
93
-9
4
19
94
-9
5
19
95
-9
6
19
96
-9
7
19
97
-9
8
19

Year
98
-
19 99
99
-2
00
0
20
00
-0
1
20
01
Generation from wind

-0
2
20
02
-0
3
20
03
-0
4
Capacity factor for win
Ti

0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
ll
03
/9
2
19
92
-9
3
19
93
-9
4
19
94
-9
5
19
95
-9
6
19
96
-9
7
19
97
-9
8

Year
19
98
-9
19 9
99
-2
00
0
20
00
-0
1
20
01
-0
2
20
02
-0
3
Variation in Capacity Factor
Cost of Generation of Electricity
from Wind

Capital Annualised Cost of Generation


cost/MW capital cost Annual O&M ALCC
(Million INR) (Million INR) (Million INR) (Million INR) CUF=14% CUF=30%

40 4.70 0.80 5.50 4.48 2.09

50 5.87 1.00 6.87 5.60 2.62

With incentive of 80% accelerated depreciation in the first year

40 3.57 0.80 4.37 3.56 1.66

50 4.46 1.00 5.46 4.45 2.08

Values assumed for calculation of cost of generation


Life of system = 20 years
Discount Rate = 10%
Income tax = 33%
Maintenance = 2% of capital cost
Macro –Level Diffusion Models

Variable Limit L
Being Exponential
Forecast growth

Logistic
or S curve

Time t

Growth curves (Linstone and Sahal, 1976)


Diffusion Curves for wind
energy
50000
Potential = 45000MW

40000
a2
Installed Capacity (MW

30000

a
20000
am

Actual Installation
10000 Diffusion curve
Upper limit of uncertainity
Low er limit of uncertainity
a1
Forecast Values by MNRE
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Year
Year Projection by Projection by Values in the uncertainty limit of 5%
MNRE diffusion curve Higher limit
Lower limit
2007 7000 8700 2000 24800
2012 17500 23000 5800 39600
2022 40000 42900 27400 44800
#4 Mainstreaming of renewables and efficiency
Small Hydro Power

† Classification - Capacity
-Micro less than 100 kW
Mini 100 kW - 3 MW
Small 3 MW - 15 MW
† Micro and Mini - usually
isolated, 200 kW Chizami village,
Small grid connected Nagaland

† Heads as low as 3 m viable


† Capital Cost Rs 5-6crores/MW
,
Rs 1.50-2.50/kWh
† 1846 MW (7%/year)

Aleo (3MW) Himachal Pradesh


Trend of Installed Capacity Small
Hydro Power Projects in India
2000
Installed Capacity
1800
Capacity Addition
1600
Installed Capacity (MW

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
Diffusion Curves for Small
Hydro Power Projects
16000
Potential =15000MW
14000

12000
Installed Capacity (MW

10000

8000

6000 Actual Installation


Diffusion curve
4000 Upper limit of uncertainity
Lower limit of uncertainity
2000 Forecast Values by M NRE
Diffusion curve (accelerated growth rate =9%)
0
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110 2130
Year
Projection by diffusion Values in the uncertainty limit of 5%
Year Projection by MNRE
curve Lower limit Higher limit
2007 1960 1970 1860 2080
2012 3360 2550 2370 2740
2022 6500 4100 3710 4520
Cost of Generation for Small
Hydro Power Plants

Run of River Dam Canal

Life 40 years 40 years 40 years

Capacity of plant considered (kW) 3000 2000 1000

Capital Cost (lakhs) 1429.38 740.87 593.65

Average Capital cost (lakhs/kW) 0.60 0.15 0.74

Annual O&M in lakhs 42.88 22.23 17.81

Generation cost(Rs./kWh) 1.80 1.40 2.24


Load factor = 40 %

Values assumed for calculation of cost of generation


Life of system = 40 years
Discount Rate = 10%
Maintenance = 3% of capital cost
Cost of Electricity
Generation(Small Hydro)
5
Run of River
Unit Cost of Electricity Generation (Rs./kWh

4.5 Run of River (with capital subsidy)


Dam
4
Dam (with capital subsidy)
3.5 Canal
Canal (with capital subsidy)
3

2.5

1.5

0.5

0
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Capacity Utilisation Factor
Biomass Power

† Higher Capacity factors


than other renewables
† Fuelwood, agricultural
residues, animal waste
† Atmospheric gasification
with dual fuel engine - 100 kWe Pfutseromi village, Nagaland

† 500 kW gasifier - largest


installation
† Combustion – 5-7.5 MW
† Rs 2.50-4/kWh

Kaganti Power Ltd. Raichur Distt. A.P. 7.5 MW


Biogas

„ 45-70% CH4 rest CO2


„ Calorific value 16-25MJ/m3
„ Digestor- well containing animal waste
slurry
„ Dome - floats on slurry- acts as gas
holder
„ Spent Slurry -sludge- fertiliser
„ Anaerobic Digestion- bacterial action
„ Family size plants 2m3/day
„ Community Size plants 12- 150 m3/day
„ Rs 12-14000 for a 2m3 unit
„ Cooking, Electricity, running engine
Pura, Karnataka
Bagasse Cogeneration

Incremental Capital Cost 30000


(Rs/kW)
Life 20 years
Boiler Efficiency 70%
Bagasse NCV = 3400 kcal/kg (dry basis), Price Rs 1.50/kg
Discount rate = 10%, O&M cost = Rs 0.5/kWh
2500 tcd plant 9.5 MW export, 0.93 kg extra/ kWh
Load factor 0.4 0.5 0.6

Rs/kWh 2.60 2.40 2.27


2 2 a ta 5 8 T /h r
330o C

FEED
W ATER 2 7 T /h r
4 .5 T /h r 2 6 T /h r
F eed w ater
B O IL E R
0 .5 T /h r

PRDS
BA G A SSE
0 .5 T /h r
M IL L IN G

PRDS

6 a ta

P ro cess 2 .5 M W
STEA M
F la s h e d T U R B IN E
2 a ta
C o n d e n s a te

P ro cess

S c h e m a tic o f ty p ic a l 2 5 0 0 tc d S u g a r fa c to r y
B O IL E R
F e e d w a te r
75 TPH , 65 STEA M
a ta , 4 8 0 O C T U R B IN E
9 .5 M W
13 M W P ow er export
BA G A SSE
( A lt e r n a t e f u e l) ~

6 a ta
4 .5 T P H 1 .0 M W

Condenser
M ill
PR O C ESS d r iv e s
2 a ta
CO NDENSER
2 a ta
2 .5 M W
C a p tiv e
BFP lo a d
PR O C ESS

P R O P O S E D P L A N T C O N F IG U R A T IO N : O P T IO N 2
Solar PV

† India -2740 kW
Grid connected
systems Vidyut Saudha Building, 100 kWp , APTRANSCO

(25-239 kW) (2001) BHEL

† Array efficiency in
field 12-15%
† Cost Rs 26cr/MW
Rs 15-20 /kWh
Mousuni Island , 105 kWp, West Bengal
Renewable Energy Agency (2003 )
Technology Options for Solar
power
Solar Power

Thermal PV

Low Temp. Medium Temp. Up to Material Production Process


High Temp.
<100°C 400° C Line Focusing >400°C
Parabolic Collectors Single Crystal Silicon

Polycrystalline Silicon
Solar Solar
Amorphous Silicon
Solar Flat Plate Chimney Pond
Collectors CdTe/ GAAs

Wafer Thin Film


Parabolic Dish Central Tower
Growth in Production of
Photovoltaic Modules in India
70
Annual PV Module Produciton (MW)
60

50

40

30

20

10

0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
Cost of power generation using solar PV
Solar PV Modules Production
Capital Annualised ALCC Cost of Generation (Rs./kWh)
cost/MW capital cost Annual O&M (Million
(Million INR) (Million INR) (Million INR) INR) CUF=10% CUF=20% CUF=25%
300.60 35.30 6.00 41.30 47.17 23.58 18.87
Solar PV-Breakup of Module
Street Light
Electrification 3% Power Plant
2% 3%
Lantern
Others 4%
15% Pump
6%

Home light
8%

Telecom
14%

Export
45%
Household Cooking fuels
BiogasNo cooking
0.3% 0.7% Others
Coal
2.8%
1.6%
Kerosene
2.7%
1999-2000
Dung
10.7% Rural
LPG Household
5.0%

Fuelwood
76.1%

Data Source:
NSSO,2002
Cooking Energy

• 30% of total primary energy


use
•Predominantly biomass used in
chulha
•Efficiency low ~ 10%
•Indoor Air pollution- health Improved Chulha
impact
•Transition to convenient fuels
–with income
Technology options

• Improved Chulha
•Solar Cooker – flat
plate – box type
•Scheffler cooker
•Biogas Cooking Scheffler
Cooker
•Biomass Gasifier

Kitchen
End Uses and Technologies for
Use of Solar Thermal Energy

Solar
Thermal

Low Temperature Medium Temperature High Temperature


(<100 °C) (<400 °C) (>400 °C)

Parabolic Central
Box Flat Plate Solar Solar Line Dish Tower
type /Evacuated Chimney Pond Focussing
cookers Tube Parabolic
Collectors

Solar Air Power Power Hot water Power Power Industrial Cooking Cooking Power Power
Water Dryer for Heating
Heater Industrial
Use
Comparison of Solar Thermal
Power Generation Technologies
Technology Efficiency Indian Experience Status
Solar Flat Plate Collectors 2% 10 kW exptl unit at IITM D

Solar Chimney 1% No experience D


50 kW Spain

Solar Pond 1-2% Experience for hot water D


Bhuj (Israel 5 MW power)

Line focussing Parabolic Peak 20% 50 kW system in SEC installed C


Average 11-14% Planned 35MW solar in 140 MW
ISCC at Mathania

Paraboloid Dish 29% peak Demo unit 20 kW near Hyderabad D


12-18% 10 kW Vellore
Central Tower 23% peak No experience D
7-14%

D- Demonstration
C- Commercially available technology
Details of world’s largest solar
steam cooking system

1. Location of world’s largest solar Tirupati in Andhra Pradesh (2002)


steam cooking system

2. Capacity 15,000 people (two meals/day)

3. Cost of system including back up Rs. 10.9 million


boiler, utensils and AMC for 5 years
4. Generation 4000 kg. of steam/day at 180ºC and 10 kg.cm2

5. No. of concentrators 106 automatic tracked parabolic concentrators


of 9.2 m2 reflector area

6. Savings around 1,18,000 diesel per year


Solar Cooking

•Tirumala(Tirupati) – 4 T/day of
steam – food for 15000 people
Solar parabolic Concentrators
•Solar cooking – Suitable for
Institutions/ Community kitche

•Households- Army
difficult – change mess,
in cooking habits Ladakh
Fuel

GTG 2sets
sets of 35 M W each
Proposed
GTG-2 of35.2
MW
~

Air Gas Turbine sets


Steam, 103 b,500 o C
ISCC

W HRB
Aux. Firing
Feed water
Flue gas from GT
Heat exchanger
Solar Radiation 103 b,371 o C
75.5 M W
Steam, 103 b,500 o C
391 o C

Heat exchanger ~

Steam
Solar Heat Heat Transfer turbine
Exchanger oil, 291 o C To W HRB

BFP Condenser

b- bar
Biomass Conversion Routes

BIOMASS

THERMOCHEMICAL BIOCHEMICAL

COMBUSTION GASIFICATION PYROLYSIS DIGESTION FERMENTATION


PRODUCER GAS
RANKINE BIOGAS ETHANOL
CYCLE

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURISED
Duel Fuel
SIPGE
Gas Turbines
Solar Water Heating System
STORAGE
TANK
TO USAGE
POINT
AUXILIARY COLLECTOR
HEATER TO USAGE
COLLECTOR POINT
AUXILIARY
HEATER
STORAGE
TANK
FROM
OVERHEAD
TANK
FROM PUMP
OVERHEAD Schematic of solar water heating system
TANK

ŠSolar Water Heating Systems in India


– Installed Capacity = 1.5 million sq. m. (0.8% of estimated potential)
Factors Affecting Diffusion Of
SWHS

† Location- Insolation
† Water Usage Pattern
† Cost of electricity
† Capital Cost
† Reliability
† Potential savings
† Subsidies/ Financial Incentives
Micro Level Decision Model
(Parametric Analysis)

INPUT DATA
Water usage pattern
TRNSYS
Location
(Monthly average hourly
temperature and radiation data)
Characteristics of SWHS Auxiliary heating requirement
(Monthly average hourly data)

Economic Analysis
MS EXCEL

Savings in Electricity Cost


Payback Period Analysis Selection and sizing
Cost of electricity saved of SWHS

TRNSYS (Transient System Simulation Program developed at SEL, University of Wisconsin)


Information Flow Diagram of Micro
–simulation for SWHS

Weather Hourly Global Solar Radiation


data & Diffuse Solar Radiation

SOLAR RADIATION
PROCESSOR

Hourly Solar Radiation on


Collector Surface
Hourly ambient
Temperature
COLLECTOR

STORAGE LOAD
TANK (Hourly hot water
usage pattern)

AUXILIARY Auxiliary
HEATER heating
requirement
Potential Of SWHS
Technical potential Pij for sub-class j in sector i is

Pij = f j f aj Ni Psj
where j denotes sub-class of end use points in sector i.
Psj is the simulation output for a single end use point
fj denotes fraction of the end uses
m is the total number of sub-classes.
faj is fraction of roof area availability
Ni is the number of end uses points in sector i

Technical Potential for sector i is

m where i denotes sector


Pi = ∑ Pij
Technical Potential of SWHS P(T) in the target area is
j=1

P( T ) = ∑ Pi
Economic Potential

Economic potential of SWHS


P(E): subset of technical potential

P (E )ij = ve Pij
ve = 0, if payback period > maximum acceptable
limit
ve = 1, if payback period < maximum acceptable
limit
Payback Acceptance Schedule
1
Fraction Meeting Economic 0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
Criteria

0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Payback period (years)

MARKET POTENTIAL
P (M )ij = f pj Pij
fp,j is fraction of potential adopters meeting economic criteria.
Input Data For Potential Estimation Of
SWHS in Pune
Target Area Pune
Area 138 sq.km
Total Number of households 5.17 lakhs
Number of households with more than three rooms 1.41 lakhs
Average number of persons in each household 5
Number of hospitals 394
Capacity range of hospitals 1-570 beds
Number of nursing homes 118
Capacity range of nursing homes 1-50 beds
Number of hotels 298
Capacity range of hotels 10-414 inmates
Number of households residing in single ownership houses 35250
6 floors 1400
Number of buildings (4 flats in each floor) 10 floors 880
11 floors 840
Cost of electricity Residential 2.80
(Rs./kWh) Commercial 4.00
Hot Water Usage Patterns (Pune)
70 o 200 o
T e mp e ra t ure = 4 0 C T e mp e ra t ure = 4 0 C
60 180
160
50 140
120

litres/h
litres/h

40
100
30 80
20 60
40
10
20
0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Hour of day Hou r of day

(a) Re si de nti al (1) [Gadgi l , 1987] (b) Re si de nti al (2) [Nark h e de , 2001]

25 12
o o
T e mp e ra t ure = 5 0 C T e mp e ra t ure = 5 0 C

20 10
8
15
litres/h

litres/h
6
10
4
5 2

0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Hou r of day Hou r of day
(c) Hospi tal (1 be d) (d) Nu rsi n g Hom e (1 be d)
30
o
T e mp e ra t ure = 6 0 C
25

20
itres/h

15

10

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Ti m e of day (Hour)
(e ) Hote l - 1 gue st
Model for Potential Estimation of Target Area
Target area
Weather data, area details
Identification and Classification of different end uses by sector (i)

Residential (1) Hospital Nursing Hotels Others


(2) Homes (3) (4) (5)
Classification based on factors* (j)
Sub-class (i, j)
Technical Potential
Economic Potential Market Potential

Potential for end use Potential Potential Potential Potential


sector (i = 1) for i = 2 for i = 3 for i = 4 for i = 5

POTENTIAL OF SWHS IN TARGET AREA


Technical Potential (m2 of collector area)
Economic Potential (m2 of collector area)
Market Potential (m2 of collector area)
Energy Savings Potential (kWh/year)
Load Shaving Potential (kWh/ hour for a monthly average day)
Single end use point
Micro simulation using TRNSYS
SECTOR (i)
Hot water Weather
usage pattern data Classification based on factors* (j)
SIMULATION Sub-class (i, j)
Auxiliary heating requirement Single end use point

Target Capacity of POTENTIAL


Auxiliary SWHS
heating (Collector area) No. of end Technical
use points Potential
Technical
SWHS Potential Economic Market
capacity
Potential Potential
Constraint: roof
Base load
for heating area availability Economic Constraint:
Constraint market
Electricity/ fuel savings acceptance
Price of electricity
Potential for end use sector (i = 1)
Investment for Economic
SWHS viability
* Factors affecting the adoption/sizing of
solar water heating systems
Potential of Solar Water
Heating Systems for Pune

† Technical Potential=0.35 million m2 of


collector area
„ Electricity Savings = 225 GWh
† Market Potential = 0.05 million m2 of
collector area
„ Electricity Savings = 43 GWh
Hot Water Usage Patterns (Pune)
70 o 200 o
T e mp e ra t ure = 4 0 C T e mp e ra t ure = 4 0 C
60 180
160
50 140
120

litres/h
litres/h
40
100
30 80
20 60
40
10
20
0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Hou r of day Hou r of day

(a) Re si de n ti al (1) [Gadgi l , 1987] (b) Re si de n ti al (2) [Nark h e de , 2001]

25 12
o o
T e mp e ra t ure = 5 0 C T e mp e ra t u re = 5 0 C

20 10
8
15
litres/h

litres/h
6
10
4
5 2

0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Hou r of day Hou r of day
(c) Hospi tal (1 be d) (d) Nu rsi n g Hom e (1 be d)
30
o
T e mp e ra t ure = 6 0 C
25

20
itres/h

15

10

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Ti m e of day (Hou r)
(e ) Hote l - 1 gu e st
Achievable Potential of SWHS for Different
Payback Periods

100%
100% replacement
90%
85% replacement
Potential as percentage of technical

Technical Potential = 1700 m 2


potential for 100% replacement

80% 50% replacement


70%
Technical Potential = 1200 m 2
60%
50%
40%
30%
20% Technical Potential = 460 m 2
10%
0%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Payback period (years)
Load Curve Representing Energy Requirement for
Water Heating for Pune

1000
Typical day of January
900
Typical day of May
Energy Consumption (MW)

800
Total Consumption =14300 MWh/day
700

600
53% Total Consumption = 13900 MWh/day
500

400
Total Consumption =760 MWh/day
300

200 Total Consumption = 390 MWh/day

100

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Hour of day

Total Electricity Consumption of Pune


Electricity Consumption for water heating of Pune
Potential of SWHS for a state: Maharashtra

Selected Population % urban Estimated potential


district/State (million) populatio
Electricity Collector Area
n
savings (million sq.
(GWh) m.)
1 Maharashtra 96.9 42.4 1620 7.6
2 Mumbai 1.20 100 477 2.5
3 Pune 7.22 58.07 242 1.0

4 Nagpur 4.05 64.36 129 0.6


.
Potential for Sample States
State Potential of SWHS
Electricity savings Collector
area
(GWh) (million m2)
1 Tamil Nadu 920 4.7
2 Karnataka 780 3.6
3 Rajasthan 450 2.1
4 Haryana 300 1.3

5 Assam 30 0.1

6 Maharashtra 1620 7.6

India 12200 57.0


Growth of solar water heating
systems in India
1.6
Installed Capacity of Solar Water Heating

1.4

1.2
Systems (million sq.m.)

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
1989-90 1991-92 1993-94 1995-96 1997-98 1999-00 2001-02 2003-04 2005-06
Year
Diffusion Curves for Solar
Water Heating Systems
80
Actual installed (million sq. m.)
Diffusion curve
70 Upper limit of uncertainity
Installed Capacity of Soalr Water Heating

Lower limit of uncertainity Pote ntial =60 million sq.m.


60
Systems (million sq. m.)

50

40

30

20

10

0
1988 1998 2008 2018 2028 2038 2048 2058 2068 2078
Ye ar
Solar Water Heater Potential
Solar Water Heating Capacity (collector area in millio

300 Actual installed (million sq. m.)


Potential 140 million sq. m.
Potential 60 million sq. m.
250 Potential 200 million sq. m.
Extrapolated Potential (million sq.m.) Estimated Potential in
2
Potential = 200 m illion m 2 2092 = 199 million m
200

Potential = 140 m illion m 2


m )..
2

150

100
Potential = 60 m illion m 2

50

0
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
Sustainability indicators

Indicators used in the current analysis


Indicator Parameter
Economic indicator (EcI) Life cycle cost
Environment indicator (EnvI) Life cycle greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions
Renewability indicator (RI) Net energy ratio (NER)*
Resource indicator (RsI) Resource constraint (Area,
material, land etc.)

*Net energy ratio = Energy Output/Fossil energy input


Net energy analysis

„ All material and energy inputs to the process


are identified
„ Total energy required to extract, produce, and
deliver a given energy output or end use
„ Energy output delivered is compared with the
total energy required
† Functional unit – 1 kWh electricity
generation.
Methodology to compute indicators
Process flow Sizing of different
charts equipment required

Inventory (process energy and material) to produce 1 one


unit of output

Total primary energy required to produce


required process energy and materials

Cost of equipments
Total GHG emissions in Classification of total
and material
producing process primary energy into
required, discount
energy and materials renewable and non-
rate, life of the
(using emission factors) renewable energy
equipments

EnvI RI
EcI

Amount of material and Materials and other resources such


RsI other resources required to as water, land etc required to
meet the current demand produce 1 unit of output
Material supply constraint Annual requirement/Reserve

Area required/Available land area


Area

RsI
Material constraint Annual requirement/Reserve

Technical constraint, water for


Other constraint biomass based systems etc.

No constraint
Approx present
price of GHG
reduction
Comparison

Net Cost GHG Resource


energy (Rs/kWh) (kg CO2- constraint
ratio eq /kWh)

Coal based 0.35-0.4 1.2-2.2 0.85-0.9 Fossil fuel


Solar PV 1.6-4.2 8.5-52 0.05-0.13 Higher cost
WECS 8-26 1.8-13 0.012- Grid
0.04 penetration
Biomass 8.5-12.5 2.8-4.2 0.06-0.08 Land
Renewable CDM Projects

18 12
Wind Wind
16 10

GHG Savings Estimates


SHP SHP
14

(million tCO2).
No. of projects

12 8
10
6
8
6 4
4
2
2
0 0
<5 5 - 10 10 - 20 - 30 - 50 - 100 - <5 5-10 10-20 20 - 30 - 50 - 100 -
20 30 50 100 500 30 50 100 500
Capacity (MW) Capacity (MW)

(a) No. of CDM proje cts ( b ) G H G S a v in g s E s t im a t e s o f C D M p ro je c t s


Status of Renewable Energy
Technologies

Estimated Installed Capacity as Annual Capacity Growth


Technology Potential on December, 2006 Growth Installed in Rate in
{Estimated Annual Rate 2005-06 2005-06
Generation (GWh)} (2001-5)
Power Generation
Wind 45000 MW 6270 MW {7690} 40% 1452 MW 49%
Small Hydro Projects 15000 MW 1861 MW{6521} 6% 53 MW 3%
Solar Photovoltaic (Grid 5000 MW 2.74 MW {3} 10% 0a 0%
connected)
Bio Power (Woody 52000 MW 500 MW 36% 87 MW 30%
Biomass)
Bagasse Cogeneration 5000 MW 708 MW 22% 54 MW 12%
Energy Recovery from 5000 MW 46 MW 28% 0b 0%
Waste
Status of Renewable Energy
Technologies
Installed Annual Capacity Growth
Technology Capacity as on Growth Rate Installed in Rate in
December, 2006 (2001-5) 2005-06 2005-06
Decentralized Energy Systems
Biogas Plants 3.9 million 4% 0.02 million 1%
Improved Chulhas 35.2 million 1% 0 0%
Solar Photovoltaics
i.Solar Street Lighting System (March 31, 2006) 54795 nos. 4% 1023 nos. 2%
i.Solar Home Lighting Systems (March 31, 342607 nos. 11% 16530 nos.
2006) 5%
i.Solar Power Plants (Isolated) 1.86 MWp 3% 0.59 MWp 3%
Solar Thermal
i.Solar Water Heating Systems 1.65 million m2 26% 0.2 million m2 25%
i.Box solar cookers 0.6 million 4% 0.25 5%
i.Concentrating dish cookers 2000 nos. 98% 0 nos. 0%
i.Community cookers 12 nos. - 1 nos. 10%
Wind Pumps 1137 nos. 8% 62 nos. 7%
Aero-generator /Hybrid Systems 0.5 MW 38% 11 kW 3%
Solar Photovoltaic Pumps 7015 nos. 14% 366 nos. 6%
Summary of Power Generation
Technologies Using Renewable Energy
Status of Largest Capacity Cost of CDM Projects Applications
Technology Technology Installation Factor Generation
No. of MW Estimate of
(Rs./kWh)
projects GHG
abatement
in million
tCO2 eq.
Geothermal D 50 25%
OTEC D 1 MWa -
Wave P 150 kW -
Tide P 3.6 MWb 17%
Wind C 400 MW 14% 2.0-4.4 42 1186 20.5
Small Hydro C 25 MW 40% 1.0-4.5 37 317 8.4
Solar PV C 239 kW 15% 18.0-50.0 - - -

D - Demonstration
P - Prototype
C – Commercial
a - Not operational till date
b – being planned
Present Status, Targets and Projections
of Renewable Energy Technologies

Wind Small Hydro SWHS


Grid Power
Annual Installed
Installed Capacity Installed Capacity Installed Capacity
Generation Capacity
(MW) (MW) (million m2)
(MU) (MW)
as on
Dec, 659 [77] 132329 6290 1861 1.65
2006
TARGETS AND PROJECTIONS

Targets Projected Targets


Targets (IEPC) Targets Projected Projected
(MNRE ) (9%)a (MNRE)

17500
2012 1097 220000 23000 3360 3533 10 4
(MNRE)
40000
2022 2118 425000 42900 6500 6466 30 15
(MNRE)
33341
2032 3880 779000 44900 9462 50 35
(IEPC)
a Higher growth rate expected than the past trends due to potential and cost effectiveness
Policy Interventions

† Independent Tracking of performance/ costs.


† Renewable energy targets based on generation
† Assess impacts of policies
† Preferential Feed-in tariffs
† Innovative cost recovery/ policy experiments for
Isolated Systems
† Changes in Building Bye Laws –SWH, Passive
† Institutional Building – e.g National Bio Power
Corporation
† Centres of Excellence
† India as a global renewable energy hub
References

† Manish, Pillai, Banerjee, ‘Sustainability analysis of renewables’,


Energy for Sustainable Development , December 2006
† World Energy Assessment – Energy & the Challenge of
Sustainability,UNDP, 2000,
† IIASA- WEC Study //www.iiasa.ac.at
† AKNReddy,R H Williams, T. Johannson,Energy After Rio-
Prospects and Challenges-,UNDP, 1997, New York.
† MNES Annual Report, 2005-2006, March 2006
† Integrated Energy Policy Report, Planning Commission, 2006
† S.P.Sukhatme, Solar Energy, Tata McGraw Hill, Delhi,1997
† Banerjee, Comparison of DG options, Energy Policy, 2006
End-Note

The use of solar energy has not been


opened up because the oil industry
does not own the sun
Ralph Nader US Consumer activist

Thank you