Bahrain: Two Seas, Two Sects

THE HUFFINGTON POST

Lauren Vriens
Fulbright Fellow in Bahrain
Posted: February 23, 2011 10:13 AM

For the past six months, I've lived in a country nicknamed the Las Vegas
of the Middle East, replete with neon lights, clubs and prostitutes. But
I've also been living in a country of sandy villages, lined with black flags
and small mosques. This is Bahrain. The country's name means "two
seas" in Arabic, but it might as well be a metaphor for its division
between two sects.

After the first protester died on February 14, the existing tensions
between the Sunnis and the Shia have heightened. Some observers say
this clash has its roots in a geo-religious power struggle between Shia
Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia; the more likely story is one of tension
between the "haves" and the "have-nots."

The country is rife with rumors that every Shia

household has either a Hezbollah flag or a
picture of Ayatollah Khomeini hanging in the
living room. But as hard as journalists tried to
press at Pearl Roundabout, the locus of the
demonstrations, protesters just shrugged when
asked about Iran's influence. "This isn't about
Iran. This is about me being able to feed my children," one woman said.
On Monday night, there were allegedly
300,000 people protesting around the
Grand Mosque in favor of the government.
Only 20 minutes away, a hundred thousand,
if not more (no Bahraini newspaper has
provided an estimate), were protesting
against the regime.

Shias will say that the pro-government rally was half comprised of
wealthy Sunnis who benefit from the status quo, made clear from their
accessories of Gucci sunglasses and Hummers. The rest of the rally-goers
were Sunnis from Pakistan, India, Yemen, Syria and other countries,
speed-tracked to citizenship by the government to increase the Sunni
percentage of the population.

Since the Iranian revolution in 1979, there has been a palpable fear
among Sunnis that Bahrain is one step away from becoming a mini-Iran,
where women are required by law to wear black chadors and the only
alcohol to be found is fermented in the neighbor's bathtub.
An allegiance between Bahrain and religiously strident Iran is the Sunni
minority's worst fear -- much of the country's wealth is dependent on its
vices. The money generated from Saudi weekend tourists looking for a
good time consists of nearly 25% of the economy according to the U.S.
Embassy. If democracy comes to Bahrain, the majority Shia population
could, conceivably, end all the fun and harm the economy.

My co-worker, a Sunni and a former

financial trader, thinks that democracy is a
good thing -- "Arabs need reform and
modernity; in thousands of years, not even
one word has been added to the Arabic
dictionary" -- but she just applied for papers
to move to Australia. If democracy comes
to Bahrain, she doesn't want to be here for
it.
The lynchpin that is keeping this country the way it is -- the home of a
Formula One race track, the base of the U.S.'s Fifth Naval Fleet and a
favored place in the Gulf for business meetings -- is the monarchy.
The royal family has two faces, however. The first is busy promoting the
country as "Business-Friendly Bahrain," as its visa stamp reads. The
second is systematically and deliberately oppressing a portion of its
population, largely because of fears of an Iranian coup.

In 2001, King Hamad put forward the National

Action Charter, a referendum that signified
political reform and his wish to distance
himself from his father's reign of terror against
dissidents in the '90s. The U.S. applauded him
for his efforts in correcting his family's legacy of
human rights abuse.

Since then, the regime has painstakingly dismantled any serious political
opposition through cleverly-placed veto powers, arrests, torture, and
other dictatorial tricks. In late January, police blasted a 15-year-old Shia
boy in the face with birdshot. Things like that happen all the time.

The main Shia demand on February 14, at the

outset of the protests, was simple: an elected
Prime Minister, rather than an appointed one.
This was a reasonable request. But once the
mercenary Sunni riot police fired rubber bullets
at sleeping men, women and children in Pearl
Roundabout, there have been cries for the whole
regime to step down.

It is unlikely that the monarchy will
close, Saudi Arabia will allegedly roll
but the government could assuage
from civil war, or from grinding to
Pearl Roundabout grow daily.
fall any time soon (if it even comes
its own tanks over the causeway),
the situation and keep the country
a complete stop as the numbers in

The recent release of 23 Shia political activists is a step in the right

direction, but the most important thing the government can do is focus
on closing the income gap by boosting its human capital development
and training programs, like Tamkeen. Forget about the Iran Boogeyman
and bring in the opposition for genuine dialogue and debate. The more
the monarchy alienates the opposition, the more radical and eastward-
leaning the opposition will become.
Regardless of the tactics the monarchy takes, it needs to start soon. It
cannot just keep its finger plugged in the dike, or else the sea may just
well come crashing in.