INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY

AN ALYSIS OF

1

PROJECT REPORT ON ANALYSIS OF INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY

SUBMITTED TO :
MR. KUMAR BIJOY

SUBMITTED BY:
ISHEETA NIRMAL (195) DEEPIKA GARG (188) RASHMI SHARMA (215) ROSHAN AGARWAL(218) VIKAS GUPTA (229) NIKHIL MAHAJAN (240)

NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT
60, 50(B&C), TUGHLAKABAD INSTITUTIONAL AREA NEW DELHI-110062

NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT- PGDM(2008-10)

GRO UP-15, FINANCE-II

INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY

AN ALYSIS OF

2

DECLARATION
We hereby declare that the work presented in this Project entitled “ Analysis of
Indian Automobile Industry” submitted to Prof. Bijoy kumar (visiting Faculty) at

New Delhi Institute Of Management, New Delhi is an authentic record of our original work.

Signature of Mentor

Signature of Candidates

Date:

NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT- PGDM(2008-10)

GRO UP-15, FINANCE-II

INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY

AN ALYSIS OF

3

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The satisfaction and joy that accompanies the successful completion of a task is incomplete without mentioning the name of the person who extended his help and support in making it a success. We are greatly indebted to Mr. Bijoy (Guest Faculty at NDIM), my Project Guide and Mentor for devoting his valuable time and efforts towards my project. We thank him for being a constant source of knowledge, inspiration and help during this period of making project.

ISHEETA NIRMAL DEEPIKA GARG RASHMI SHARMA ROSHAN AGARWAL VIKAS GUPTA NIKHIL MAHAJAN

NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT- PGDM(2008-10)

GRO UP-15, FINANCE-II

The fourth chapter deals with Conclusion & Recommendations and the last chapter includes Bibliography. At present it holds a promising tenth position in the entire world with being # 1 in Two Wheelers and # 4 in commercial vehicles. In this project we have undergone a detailed analysis of India automobile industry by using Fundamental and Technical tools. The third chapter deals with analysis of automobile Industry which entails fundamental and technical analysis of Indian Automobile Industry. The automobile industry in India — the ninth largest in the world with an annual production of over 2.PGDM(2008-10) GRO UP-15. FINANCE-II .INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 4 PREFACE Indian automobile industry has grown leaps and bounds since 1898. NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT. The project report is divided into 5 chapters. it may not be an exaggeration to say that this industry in the coming years will soon touch a figure of 10 million units per year. The first two chapters include Executive Summery & objective of the research. Withstanding a growth rate of 18% per annum and an annual production of more than 2 million units. a time when a car had touched the Indian streets for the first time.3 million units in 2008 — is expected to become one of the major global automotive industries in the coming years. In order to better understand the performance of the industry we have made comparative analysis of Two players Tata motors as (leading player) and Maruti Suzuki.

A. Industry c. PARTICULARS PAGE NO.NO. Company . Objective of the Project Chapter 3. Executive Summary of the Project Chapter 2. Analysis of Indian Automobile Industry Fundamental Analysis a.PGDM(2008-10) GRO UP-15. Share Price Analysis Moving Average Moving Average Crossover Bollinger Band e. d. FINANCE-II . Economy b. b.C. M.Financial & Non-Financial Technical Analysis a.D Chapter 4 Chapter 5 Conclusion & Recommendations Bibliography Annexure NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT. Chapter 1.INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 5 TABLE OF CONTENT S. c.

FDI’s. The Indian automobile market is gearing towards international standards to meet the needs of the global automobile giants and become a global hub. The Industry Analysis has been done with the help of five forces model. NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT. Export. The fundamental aspect consists financial and Non-Financial analysis of both the company. For Company Analysis as a part of Fundamental tool we have undergone with the comparative analysis of TATA Motors as our leading company with Maruti Suzuki India’s largest Car manufacturer. An E.D. moving average crossover.A.PGDM(2008-10) GRO UP-15. SWOT analysis.I.INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The automobile industry. industry life cycle and the industry specific index. Bollinger bands and M. moving average. of both the company by keeping TATA Motors as our leading company. the impact of inflation. A detailed analysis of Automobile industry has been covered in respect of past growth and performance. Under this project to better understand the Industry we have used Fundamental and Technical tools to make it more authentic n meaningful. The sector seems to be optimistic of posting strong sales in the couple of years in the view of a reasonable surge in demand. on Automobile Industry. GDP etc. FINANCE-II . one of the core sectors.C. has undergone metamorphosis with the advent of new business and manufacturing practices in the light of liberalization and globalization. In the Technical aspect we have considered Share price analysis. BCG Matrix.C approach has been followed under Fundamental Analysis which covered effect of Recession. At the end conclusion and recommendations have been specified so as to make the research work more meaningful and purposeful.

The main objectives of the Project study are: Detail ed analysis of Aut omobile industry inte rnational standa rds and compan y’s whi ch is gearing towa rds Analyze the impact of qualitative factors on industry’s prospects Comparative analysis of two tough competitors TATA Motors and Maruti Suzuki Application of various Technical Tools and Fundamental tools (like Financial and Non. NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT.INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 7 OBJECTIVE OF THE PROJECT The objective of this project is deeply analyze our Indian Automobile Industry for investment purpose by monitoring the growth rate and performance on the basis of historical data.financial statements). FINANCE-II .PGDM(2008-10) GRO UP-15.

GDP and Automobile Industry In absolute terms. The per capita Income is near about Rs38. Economic analysis is important in order to understand exact condition of an economy. With comparatively higher rate of economic growth rate index against that of great global powers.PGDM(2008-10) .chart showing contributions of different sectors in Indian economy. Company 2).INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 8 ANALYSIS OF AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY Over a period of more than two decades the Indian Automobile industry has been driving its own growth through phases. As the world economy slips into recession hitting the demand hard and the banking sector takes conservative approach towards lending to corporate sector. This is the pie.1 per GRO UP-15.000 reflecting improvement in the living standards of an average Indian. The service sector is growing rapidly in the past few years. ECONOMY Economic analysis is the analysis of forces operating the overall economy a country. Directly and indirectly it employs more than 10 million people and if we add the number of people employed in the auto-component and auto ancillary industry then the number goes even higher. India has become a hub of domestic and exports business. The automobile sector has been contributing its share to the shining economic performance of India in the recent years. Industry c.I.Technical Analysis 1) FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS a). Economy b. automobile sector in India is one of the key sectors of the economy in terms of the employment. Fundamental Analysis (E. Economic analysis is a process whereby strengths and weaknesses of an economy are analyzed. To understand this industry for the purpose of investment we need to analyze it by following two approaches: 1). FINANCE-II NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT. India is 16th in the world in terms of nominal factory output.C Approach) a. the GDP growth has downgraded it to 7. Today.

77 million to 1.86% over December 2007 Two Wheelers registered minor growth of 1. Although the sector was hit by economic slowdown.43 percent fall in December 2008 over the same month last year. The automotive industry in India grew at a computed annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.5 per cent for FY 2009-10 Mr.17 million vehicles in 2008-09.83 million while two-wheelers increased from 8. two-wheelers and three-wheelers in 2008-09 was 9. In December 2008. NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT.02 million to 8. Montek Singh (Planning Commission of India).7% with passenger car sales shows 1.31% growth while Commercial Vehicles segment slumped 21. industry had to face the hard truth and witnessed the fall in sales compared to last year. while revising its inflation forecast for the FY through March to around 5% from 4%. the Reserve Bank of India said few week back.5 percent over the past five years. Total number of vehicles sold including passenger vehicles. Following is the graph showing a trend of Indian GDP trend in past 3 years. Source:India Central Statistical Organization The market value of Automobile Industry is more than US$8 bl. and Contribution in Indian GDP is near about 5% and will be double by 2016.85 % during April – December 2008. Global recession has hit the Indian auto industry.85 million vehicles in 2007-08 to 11. The fall in wholesale prices from a year earlier is mainly due to a statistical base effect and doesn’t suggest contraction in demand. India is strong and growing industry but the impact of recession is evident now on industry as sales & growth of automobile companies have declined.7%. Recession All the major auto companies enjoyed the high growth ride till the mid 2008. One of its supporting facts is that the sales in December 2008 for passenger vehicles fell by 13. commercial vehicles. Inflation Despite of negative inflation these days (-.INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 9 cent for 2008-09 and predicted it to be 6. overall production (passenger vehicles. However. Passenger Vehicles segment registered negative growth. FINANCE-II .72 million as compared to 9.65 million in 2007-08. but growth rate in last FY2008-09 was only 0.PGDM(2008-10) GRO UP-15. Passenger vehicles increased marginally from 1. two wheelers and three wheelers) increased from 10. commercial vehicles. A moderate amount of inflation is important for the proper growth of an economy like India because it attracts more private investment.41 million. But at the end of the year. Two Wheelers sales recorded 15. overall production fell by 22 % over the same month last year.21% on 22-Aug-09) we saw an increasing trend of sales in auto sector.

FDI inflows in Automobile Industry 2008-09 was Rs. Source: rbi. FINANCE-II .INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 10 In last FY despite of skyrocketing oil prices (crude oil price has already up to $130 compared to $20 per barrel five years back).oil price hike.in Taking these factors into account. Reserves came down cause of recession all over the world however India still able to maintain its reserves hence a minor fall was seen compare to all other country which shows great strength in long-term for Indian Economy. which has led to a turnover of USD 12 billion in the Indian auto industry and USD 3 billion in the auto parts industry. The effect of inflation has taken the rise in the price rate of the cars by 3-4% which in turn suffices the need to meet the rise in price of the raw materials to build a car.5.212 Cr an increase of 47. Increase in Exports specially from auto industry shows an expectations of huge income from western countries and new $200 bl.PGDM(2008-10) GRO UP-15. the share of external sector in the economy and the size of risk-adjusted capital flows. the effect of inflation has affected every sector which is related to car manufacturing and production. has been permitted under automatic route to this sector. Note: NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT. of India Foreign Exchange India holds the third largest stock of reserves among the emerging market economies after China and Russia. Source. while in April-May 2009 it was around Rs.25% compare to 2007-08.5 per cent by 2015. FDI’s In India FDI up to 100 percent. target for exports by 2011 helps in increasing. Following is the table shows the trend of foreign reserves held by central bank in last FY.org.9 per cent to 2. India enjoys a cost advantage with respect to casting and forging as manufacturing costs in India are 25 to 30 per cent lower than their western counterparts the Investment Commission has set a target of attracting foreign investment worth US$ 5 billion for the next seven years to increase India's share in the global auto components market from the existing 0. Indian automobile Industry was not as much affected and experts think that Indian automobile industry will continue to grow this year despite all obstacles. India's foreign exchange reserves continued to be at a comfortable level and consistent with the rate of growth. higher interest rates. The overall approach to the management of India's foreign exchange reserves in recent years reflects the changing composition of the balance of payments and the 'liquidity risks' associated with different types of flows and other requirements. However.FDI Statistics Govt. The car market and the car industry witnessed a fall of 8-9%. The increase in the price of fuel and the steel due to inflation has led to a slower growth rate of the car industry in India.497 Cr.

more and more MNC’s coming in India to setup their ventures which clearly shows the scope of expansion. Two wheeler segment sales grew up by 12. Despite recession. 2. Pound sterling. Export of passenger vehicles increased from 218. under this segment the market leader Hero Honda registered growth of 12% in its domestic sales where as Bajaj Auto disappointed as sales plunging by 23%. except for the decline in the export of commercial vehichles in the financial year 2008-09. such as.3lac/month with help of 5000 new hands. the Indian automobile market continues to perform better than most of the other industries in the economy in coming future. It is assumed that in coming festive season to meet demand. two-wheelers and three-wheelers) in the overseas markets increased to 1.401 in 2007-08 to 335. Current Scenario of Automobile Industry in Economy With the latest available data Indian Automobile Industry is expected to grow at 9%-10% in near future. Gold: Physical stock has remained unchanged at approximately 357 tonnes. RTP refers to the Reserve Tranche Position in the IMF. carmakers going to produce 70000units/month more over the average 1.FCA (Foreign Currency Assets): FCAs are maintained as a multicurrency portfolio comprising ajor currencies. US dollar. There is a continuous increase in the export of automobiles since the financial year 2002-03.7% in last February and Commercial Vehicles reported slower sales. Euro.739 units in 2008-09. etc. and is valued in terms of US dollars. Source: Economic Times .6% growth rate. SDR (Special Drawing Rights): Values in SDR have been indicated in parentheses. Japanese yen. 4. automobile sales (including passenger vehicles.23 million units in 2007-08.8% with the modest 2.53 million units in 2008-09 from 1. Export Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM). which may be attributed to the global economic recession.INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 11 1. commercial vehicles. 3. on the other hand car sales has been grew up by a healthy 22.

FINANCE-II .NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT.PGDM(2008-10) GRO UP-15.

Hero Honda 33%. FINANCE-II is far from being saturated. Source: Economic Times (3/09/09) It is expected that the Automobile Industry in India would be the 7th largest automobile market within the year 2016. leaving ample opportunity for volume growth. whereas the automobile industry in the developing nations. To emerge as the destination of choice in the world for design and manufacture of automobiles and auto components with output reaching a level of US$ 145 billion accounting for more than 10% of the GDP and providing additional employment to 25 million people by 2016.The Indian automobile sector GRO UP-15.3 million units. The domestic two-wheeler sales will grow at a CAGR of 8. Projected Industry Growth rate in Automobile Passenger vehicle sales in the country will grow at a CAGR of 12 per cent to touch 3. Source: Economic Times Sales of different Auto Companies speed up even before festive season Maruti by 29%.75 million units by 2014.) INDUSTRY (AUTOMOBILE) ANALYSIS The current trends of the global automobile industry reveal that in the developed countries the automobile industries are stagnating as a result of drooping markets.8% by 2014 at 11. In 2009. b. Mahindra 42%. estimated rate of growth of India Auto industry is going to be 9% . Product Life Cycle and consumer demand. TATA by 11%. Being one of the fastest growing sectors in the world its dynamic growth phases are explained by the nature of competition.INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 12 Indian level: Automobile Industry at Global India ranks 1st in the global two-wheeler market India is the 4th biggest commercial vehicle market in the world India ranks 11th in the international passenger car market India ranks 5th pertaining to the number of bus and truck sold in the world India is the second largest tractor manufacturer in the world. Volkswagen. The industry is at the crossroads with global mergers and relocation of production centers to emerging developing countries. Toyota. Yamaha 63% etc. . have been consistently registering higher growth rates every passing year for their domestic flourishing domestic automobile markets.Skoda Auto 33%. Nissan & Ford plan new cars to cash in on fastest-growing compact car section of car market in India.

PGDM(2008-10) .Segmentation of Automobile Industry The automobile industry comprises of Heavy NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT.

but none offer the utility. independence and value offered by automobiles. This instinct of the industry is primarily driven by technical capabilities acquired over years of gestation under the technical collaboration with international players. For a new company. Barriers to entry The barriers to enter automotive industry are substantial. Although the barriers to new companies are substantial. Numerous other forms of transportation are available. Two-wheelers. FINANCE-II . with local knowledge and expertise. 4. tractors). 3. Industrial Analysis of any industry can be done based on the following headings: 1. Supplier’s power NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT. convenience and utility. However. These forces are Degree of Rivalry Despite the high concentration ratio seen in the automotive sector. 5. The switching cost associated with using a different mode of transportation. passenger cars. rivalry in the Indian auto sector is intense due to the entry of foreign companies in the market. tempos. buses. and Three-wheelers.INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 13 vehicles (trucks. may be high in terms of personal time.) Five Forces Model Michael Porter identifies five forces that influence an industry.PGDM(2008-10) GRO UP-15. 2. Commercial Vehicles. the startup capital required to establish manufacturing capacity to achieve minimum efficient scale is prohibitive. establishing companies are entering the new markets through strategic partnerships or through buying out or merging with other companies. The industry rivalry is extremely high with any being product being matched in a few months by the competitors. has the potential to compete its home market against the global firms who are not well established there. Following is the segmentation that how much each sector comprises of whole Indian Automobile Industry. Five Forces Model BCG Matrix Industrial Life Cycle SWOT Analysis Industry Specific Index 1. convenience. a domestic company. Threat of Substitutes The threat of substitutes to the automotive industry is fairly mild.

) BCG Matrix In an economy. automobiles. software.PGDM(2008-10) . some of the major sectors are FMCG. Buyers’ Power In the relationship between the automotive industry and its ultimate consumers. there are a number of major industries and they all occupy different positions in the BCG matrix according to their growth and contribution towards the economy. 2. In an economy. the power axis is tipped in industry’s favor. banking and insurance. the power axis is tipped in the consumers’ favor. The industry is comprised of powerful buyers who are generally able to dictate their terms to the suppliers.INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 14 In the relationship between the industry and its suppliers. pharmacology and retail sectors and these can be placed in the different positions in the matrix as shown below: INDUSTRY BCG MATRIX H S QUESTION Bank ing M a r k e t G r o w t h & AUTOMOBIL Softwa Retai Telecom CASH F D Low H Relati ve mar ket Low GRO UP-15. FINANCE-II NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT. steel. different industries are present and different industries have different growth rate as compared to the growth of the economy. In the Indian economy. This is due to the fairly standardized nature and the low switching costs associated with selecting from among competing brands. telecom.

General motors.PGDM(2008-10) GRO UP-15. In the Stars we place the companies with high marke t growth and high market share. FINANCE-II . the companies a re placed in one of the following fo categories: Star. rs. Cash Cows. in terms of the market growth rate and the mar ket share of the company in the industry In the Indian automobile s .INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 15 Ma hindra& BCG matrix is used to determine the Hero TVS relative position of General Mo totrs Bajaj the companies of D ogs an industry or Cash Cow s different SBU’s of any institution. Dogs and Question ur marks. STARS Question Marks COMPANY BCG MATRIX H M a r k e t G r o w t h Maruti TATA Low H Relati ve market Low NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT. Mahindra and Mahindra. In the BCG matrix. th e category of the question marks include the companies with low rela ive market share and high market growth rate and t dogs include the companies who have low relative market share and low market growth rate. Tata Moto Hero Honda and Bajaj auto. cash cows are the companies who have low market growth rateand high relative market share. the major players are Maruti Suzuki Limited. ector.

Business strategies are developing. Passenger Cars grew by 11.66 percent.92 % during this period.07 percent. Industry demand tends to follow the overall economy. Environmental factors internal to the firm usually can be classified as strengths (S) or weaknesses (W). Light Commercial Vehicles recorded a growth of 12.64% and 16. Two Wheelers registered a negative growth rate of 7. Three Wheelers sales fell by 9. Industry life cycle classification generally groups industries into one of four stages: pioneer.INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 16 3.39 percent in this period. Scooters and Mopeds segment grew by 11.29 percent. Utility Vehicles by 10. The Indian automobile sector has passed this stage quite successfully. growth. The cumulative growth of the Passenger Vehicles segment during April 2007 – March 2008 was 12.93% respect. 4. Such an analysis of the strategic environment is referred to as a SWOT analysis.17 percent.13 percent during April.March 2008 compared to the last year. FINANCE-II . However.79 percent. Companies began to focus on market share rather than growth.49 percent and Passenger Carriers declined by 2. While Medium & Heavy Commercial Vehicles declined by 1. and those external to the firm can be classified as opportunities (O) or threats (T). SWOT analysis of the Indian automobile sector gives the following points: NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT. In the pioneer phase.57 percent and Multi Purpose Vehicles by 21. the product market has been established and there is at least some historical guide to ground demand estimates. However. but the scope of growth of the automobile sector is very much possible in India due to the increasing income of the middle class and their income as well as standard of living. The growth rate of the automobile industry in India is greater than the GDP growth rate of the economy. so the automobile sector can be very well be said to be in the growth phase. The Commercial Vehicles segment grew marginally at 4. As the product matures. successful companies can grow at extraordinary rates. The industry is growing rapidly. often at an accelerating rate of sales and earnings growth. with motorcycles and electric two wheelers segments declining by 11.90 percent and 44.) Industrial Life Cycle The industrial life cycle is a term used for classifying industry vitality over time.) SWOT Analysis A scan of the internal and external environment is an important part of the strategic planning process. In the growth phase.PGDM(2008-10) GRO UP-15. growth slows as penetration reaches practical limits.71 percent with sales of Goods Carriers declining drastically by 20. maturity and decline.63% respect. Indian Automotive Industry is booming with a growth rate of around 15 % annually. the product has not been widely accepted or adopted. and there is high risk of failure.

Hence an index like the BSE auto index is made of auto stocks. All stocks in a sectoral index belong to that sector only. FINANCE-II .) Industry Specific Index Industry specific index also called as sectoral index are those indices.INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 17 Strengths Large domestic market Sustainable labor cost advantage Competitive auto component vendor base Government incentives for manufacturing plants Strong engineering skills in design etc Weaknesses Low labor productivity High interest costs and high overheads make the production uncompetitive Various forms of taxes push up the cost of production Low investment in Research and Development Infrastructure bottleneck Opportunities Commercial vehicles: SC ban on overloading Heavy thrust on mining and construction activity Increase in the income level Cut in excise duties Rising rural demand Threats Rising input costs Rising interest rates Cut throat competition 5. Sectoral Indices are very useful in tracking the movement and performance of particular sector.PGDM(2008-10) GROUP-15. NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT. BSE Auto Index comprises all the major auto stocks in the BSE 500 Index. which represent a specific industry sector.

The demand of 2 and 4 Wheelers start increasing rapidly which also force auto industry to employ more workers to meet demand and with GRO UP-15. Also no further launches were made in mid or late 2008 and postponed to next year. Maruti Suzuki. indian auto industry start picking up growth slowly in the first end of 1st quarter index reaches to its highest in his history. etc. But in the beginning of 2009 right from 1st quarter auto industry again start regaining and we saw a tremondous growth in auto industry which never seen before not in india but all over the world. We have also saw a fall in FDI’s in automobile Industry.INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 18 BSE AUTO Index 5 Year Chart Automobile Industry Index at BSE for 5 Year COMPANY Source:Googlefinance.com Above is the Indian Auto Industry Index(BSE) shows the up’s and down’s over the period of 5 years. Most of the company even shut down their manufacturing units for more than a week. Intially in 2003 when major giants got listed on stock exchange TATA Motors. Than we saw a steady fall in the index and in the mid 2006 reaches to years lowest point it again start booming and than year on year we saw a up and down movement in the index as lots of new players came in Indian market with foreign colaboration but when 2008 came with global slowdown it brings the demand of automobile so low that index reaches to its lowest in past 5year . production came down because of less demand in the economy. FINANCE-II NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT.PGDM(2008-10) .

FINANCE-II NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT. compared to 59.28739. With this. a decline of 10. midsize car and utility vehicle segments. and the world’s second largest bus manufacturer.3% to 69.5% to 69.) COMPANY ANALYSIS (Maruti Suzuki & TATA Motors) The company analysis shows the longterm strenght of the company that what is the financial Position of the company in the market where it stand among its competitors and who are the key drivers of the company.PGDM(2008-10) . compared to 54. compared to 5.INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 19 in the 2nd quarter of FY2009-10 Auto index reaches to its highest ever crossed mark of 6000. 25660.583 Million & Profit After Tax at Rs. 12.28599. It is the leader in commercial vehicles in each segment. Profile of Maruti Suzuki Tata Motors Limited is India’s largest automobile company.Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. The Profit after Tax for the year was Rs. Until recently.629 units.808 vehicles in August 2009.28% of the company was owned by the Indian government. of India sold its complete share to Indian financial institutions. what are the policies of government towards the company and how the stake of the company divested among different groups of people. The company's domestic sales in August 2009 increased 29. and 54.92 crores.26 crores compared to Rs. and among the top three in passenger vehicles with winning products in the compact. 2007. And this growth of industry will be carry further as festive season still to come.2028.961 vehicles.351 units in August 2008 The company's exports increased 156. has sold a total of 84.1001. so there is a lot of scope to growth in this industry. As of May 10. GRO UP-15.795 units in August 2008. The turnover for the fiscal 2008-09 stood at Rs. Total passenger car sales in August 2009 increased 30. a decline of 50.76 crores compared to Rs. an increase of 41. both in terms of volume of vehicles sold and revenue earned.187ml.2% to 14.7%. Profile of Maruti Suzuki Maruti Suzuki is one of India's leading automobile manufacturers and the market leader in the car segment.113 vehicles in August 2008. a decline of 60.79 crores compared to Rs.7%. Govt. compared to 53.7%. Revenues (net of excise) for the year were Rs. Govt. 203.847 units.908 vehicles in the same period of 2008.47 crores in 2007-08.1013.33093.2576. of India no longer has stake in Maruti Udyog. reported gross revenue (stand-alone) of Rs.93 crores) in 2008-09.6%.27 crores (2007-08: Rs. a year marked by severe demand contraction in the automobile industry.41 crores in 2007-08. The company is the world’s fourth largest truck manufacturer. The Profit before Tax was Rs. Following is the financial and Non-Financial analysis of Maruti Suzuki & TATA Motors. 18. what is the future plans of the company.2% by Suzuki of Japan. c.

1 car manufacturer Maruti Suzuki shows a negative trend from 2007 onwards. But as trend shows TATA motors have potential so an shareholder expect better in future. Financial Statements RATIO ANALYSIS OF TATA MOTORS AND MARUTI SUZUKI EPS measures the profit available to the equity shareholders per share. Till 2008 both the companies had a rising EPS but in 2009 both of them fall and the effect more on Tata motors as they bought two brands Ford Motors and fall in sales results in low EPS. EPS = Ne incom e.Divi d d on Pr eferred t en s stock Average O utstanding shares The trend shows that Tata’s net profit margin is quite stable until it falls to 3.PGDM(2008-10) GRO UP-15. Net profit Ratio = (Net profit) × 100 (Net sales) Both giants of Automobile industry shows positive trend Sales Revenue over the past 5year. Profit margins come down as recession hits economy badly hence sales get reduced and cost get increased very much.INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 20 Financial Analysis 1. FINANCE-II .77 in 2009. that is. However recession brought hurdles but both companies have potential to in future as lots of products in grow are NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT. But the future prospect for both the company’s profit is higher. the amount that they can get on every share held. While the net profit of India’s no.

Debt-Equity Ratio= Total Debt Total Equity The current ratio is a convenient and reliable tool for measuring a company's level of liquidity. Moreover increased demand in foreign market also seems to be a positive signal for better future.PGDM(2008-10) . We see that the debt –equity ratio of TATA motors is very high compared to that of Maruti. FINANCE-II NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT. It means that a lot of debt is used by TATA’s to finance its increased operations. The ratio acts as an indication that the firm is able to generate GRO UP-15. Sometimes the cost of the debt financing may outweigh the return that the company generates on the debt through investment and business activities and can lead to bankruptcy. The quick ratio is a very stringent measure of solvency. but the performance decreased from 2008 onwards as shortage of cash was there and current liabilities and provision increased by Rs800Cr. A high debt to equity ratio suggests that a company has financed its growth mostly via debt. while TATA motors was doing good till 2007.INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 21 still to add in their portfolio. Maruti is always showing a positive trend as its ratio is always greater than 1 except in 2008. A general rule of thumb suggests that the quick ratio should be around 1. Maruti is going very swiftly in this field.

Maruti is more successful in paying off its liabilities. still both the companies are earning good profit.INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 22 funds to make all needed payments in the future. FINANCE-II NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT. the ratio indicates whether the firm is likely to be a going concern.PGDM(2008-10) . so we see in graph that Maruti has more strong liquidity than TATA Motors as its current ratio is always greater than 1. Expansion plans of TATA brought down its cash & Bank Balance and increase of outside liabilities. it always provided dividend of above 10 per share to its shareholders while maruti stick to below 5 per share. even though the fall in dividend in 2009. Both the companies possess a good ratio but the ratio which is close to 2 is desirable. Dividend Per Share= Total amount of Dividend Share Outstanding a.) Balance Sh e e ts Maruti Suzuki TATA Motors GRO UP-15. but the scenario changed in 2009 as both the company’s dividend per share fell. thus. According to graph TATA’s dividend was much higher than that of Maruti. Tata motors and Maruti Suzuki both the companies showed a positive trend in paying dividends till 2008.

INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 23 b. FINANCE-II .PGDM(2008-10) GRO UP-15.) Income Statements Maruti Suzuki TATA Motors NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT.

P GDM(2008-10) GRO UP-15.INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 24 Non-Financial Analysis 1. FINANCE-II . Share Holding Pattern for Quarter Ended 30-June-09 NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT.

Upcoming Ventures & Products TATA Motors Tata Motors is try to be in a position to dominate the Indian Auto industry. Prakash M Telang 3. J. After the launch of Nano.A. Tata also apparently has its eye on the European and U. Shuji Oishi Ms. N. D. at least in four-wheeler segment. Keiichi Asai Mr. The company hopes to have a version for Europe by 2011 and one for the U. Irani Mr. Tata Motors have announced that they are interested in the idea of designing electric cars. Bhargava Mr. N.A. Board of Director TATA Motors Chairman Director Director Director Director Director Vice Chairman Director Director Director Director Director Maruti Suzuki Mr. N. Mashelkar Mr. Manvinder Singh Banga Mr.S. Wadia Mr. Kenichi Ayukawa Mr. Brar Mr. C. General Public also have quite large sta ke in the comp any 2. Being a ven ture of Japanese co mpany Suzuki big sta ke of the com pany is held by foreign prom oters which shows that they can divest their part(small part) to raise money infutu re.S perhaps by 2012. Pallavi Shroff Mr. S. NEW DELHI INSTITUTE . Company al ready raised huge m oney by selling th eir largestake to institu tional investo rs about 27%. R. R. Tsuneo Shashi Chairman MD and CEO Director Director Director Director Director Director Director Director Director & Managing Executive Office (Production) Mr. Palia Mr. n Munjee Mr. S. V. S.INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 25 Above is the updated sha re holding patte rn of TATA m tors which sho ws that Indian o promoter sha re in the company is 41% that m eans if they are not in the position to raise further money from general public. K. Ravi Kant Mr. Soonawala Mr. J. markets. However institu tional inves tors also held 39% major sta ke in the com pany but general public have very small pa rt which show that less presence s of sha re in the se condary mar ket hence low volume trading in stock mar ket. Jairath Mr. Bhargava Mr. R. Gopalakrishnan Mr. Ratan Tata Mr. Amal Ganguli Mr. Osamu Suzuki Mr.S.M. Shinzo Hakanishi Mr. To take it a step further Tata has also initialized plans for the manufacture of a hybrid car which it will market with Chryster in the U. Tata Motors.

OF MANAGEMENT. FINANCE-II .PGDM(2008-10) GRO UP-15.

PGDM(2008-10) . Suzuki Motors plan to increase their dealership in India.2009 Maruti 02 December 2009 Maruti SX4 Diesel December 2009 Maruti Cervo December 2009 Maruti Kizashi December 2009 Maruti xl7 March 2010 GRO UP-15. They have also been coming with specific sales promotion programmes targeted at interior regions. As Maruti Suzuki eyes one million sales by 2010. among them is the “Mera Sapna Meri Maruti: New Panchayati Scheme”. During the next 3-4 years on capital expenditure and product development. Maruti Suzuki India limited launched the Estilo with all new overall looks and advanced technological features. In a move ahead. towards neighboring Myanmar to boost its sales by setting up a truck manufacturing plant.500 cr. The Haryana government has allotted 700 acres of land to Maruti Suzuki for hi – tech Research & Development complex at Rohtak. 1. FINANCE-II NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT.000 cr. The upcoming cars in near future by both companies are: TATA Motors Maruti Suzuki Products (CAR) Expected Launch Maruti Grand Vitara Diesel December.000 one tone pickup trucks a year over the next 3-5 years.5 billion. By the year 2010. Tata Motors is looking east. The company plans to increase the number of service stations and workshops to over 3800 from about 2800 currently. As part of its expansion plans in Southeast Asia. out of which a quarter will be assigned for amplifying leadership network to 1000 in number. The expansion is estimated to cost $ 3. And will introduce world class R&D facilities into India.000 cr. Maruti Suzuki Maruti Suzuki has expanded the capacity at its Manesar plant to 1. to 1. Tata Motors. While the development of the allotted land and construction of the test tracks will be completed in the first phase by 2012. will see an investment in the range of Rs.INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 26 is now aiming to launch its cars in Indonesia and is also planning to sell Nano in South America with the help of Fiat. is searching options to pump approximately Rs.7 lakhs unit per annum from January 2009. The upcoming facility. the overall R&D facilities will be progressively completed by 2015. they have firmed up a massive expansion plan of its service network and plans to expand it to 1700 towns and cities from the current of about 1200. After launching the world’s cheapest car. 8. Tata Motors had inked a joint venture with Thailand’s Thonburi Auto Assembly’s to manufacture up to 35. Nano. This is a step to increase their sales to one million units as well as for a better position in the Indian auto market.

Government Policies Towards Indian Automobile Industry Automobile industry in India also received an unintended boost from stringent government auto emission regulations over the past few years.The goal is to predict probable. Implication of DOW THEORY NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT. The Proposal by the Govt. Investments in making auto parts by a foreign vehicle maker will also be considered a part of the minimum foreign investment made by it in an auto-making subsidiary in India.000 rupees earlier. subject to approval of the board of directors and of the members by way of a special resolution. Specific component of excise duty applicable to large cars and utility vehicles will be reduced to 15.INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 27 Maruti APV Maruti Jimny June 2010 July 2010 4.) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Technical analysts track price movements and trading volumes in various securities to identify patterns in the price behavior of particular stocks. The announced reduction on the basic customs on bio-diesel is great news for all companies working on environmental saving technologies. often short-term. This ensured that vehicles produced in India conformed to the standards of the developed world. Following is the Technical Analysis of TATA Motors & Maruti Suzuki to understand their pattern and behavior of share prices in the market. price changes in the investments that they study. motivate many foreign commercial vehicle manufactures to set up shops in India. whom will make India as a production hub and export to nearest market. FINANCE-II .PGDM(2008-10) GRO UP-15. to set up an expert group to advise on a viable and sustainable system of pricing petroleum products.000 rupees per vehicle from 20. The move is aimed at helping India emerge as a hub for global manufacturing and sourcing for auto parts. . mutual funds. which allows them to choose an appropriate trading strategy. Bring in a minimum foreign equity of US $ 50 Million if a joint venture involved majority foreign equity ownership Automatic approval for foreign equity investment upto 100% of manufacture of automobiles and component is permitted FIIs including overseas corporate bodies (OCBs) and NRIs are permitted to invest up to 49 per cent of the paid-up equity capital of the investee company. 2. thanks to low costs and government policies it soon faces stiff competition from it multinational competitors all eyeing for a share in the ever growing Indian auto sector. or options in specific market sectors or in the overall financial markets. Though it has an advantage in India. commodities. The policies adopted by Government will increase competition in domestic market. as this will surely had an impact on the Automobile Industry.

In the graph shown above. but then started increasing again. which is when the public at large catches on to what the experts know and begin to trade in the same direction and in the Excess phase. Public Accumulati Contin uati Exces Upst rea Correctio The first tenet of Dow Theory is that the market has three trends. The public participation phase. it is shown that the share prices of Tata motors were increasing in the year 2009. NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT. The accumulation phase is one in which the expert traders are actively taking positions which are against the majority of people in the market.PGDM(2008-10) GRO UP-15. which are defined as when the market makes lower lows and lower highs and Corrections. but it then suddenly decreased near the month of June’2009. which are defined as a move after the market makes a move sharply in one direction where the market recedes in the opposite direction before continuing in its original direction. where rampant speculations occur and the “smart money” starts to exit their positions. but also price philosophy. Accumulation.INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 28 The Dow Theory is valid even in today’s volatile and technology driven market. Uptrends are defined as a time when successive rallies in a security price close at levels higher than those achieved in previous rallies. Downtrends.Dow Theory is broken down into six basic tenets. The Dow Theory addresses not only technological analysis and price action. Public participation and Excess. The second tenet of Dow Theory is that trends have three phases. FINANCE-II .

The market may show moves which are against the primary trend but this do not mean that the trend is over and the market will normally resume its prior trend. The sales of Tata motors decreased by 4% in June end’ 2009 which can be one more reason for the decline in stock prices of Tata motors.3bl panelty. as the market started recovering after December’2008.PGDM(2008-10) GRO UP-15. The above graph also illustrates the sixth tenet. SENSEX AND TATA MOTORS NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT. FINANCE-II . In the case of Tata motors.INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 29 Upst rea m Primary trend Deviati Reaction rally The third tenet of Dow Theory is that the market counts all news. meaning that once news is released it is quickly reflected in the price of an asset. the stock price even increased once. when the prices were decreasing during recession. which may be attributed to the news of breach of JLR contract with Ford Motors which may cause Rs. In the case of Tata motors. but the market then again followed its prior trend of declining prices. the share prices started increasing but they again saw a decline. which says that trends exist until definitive signals prove that they have ended.

INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 30 Tenet four of Dow Theory is that the averages must confirm each other. When the performances diverge. NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT. Different sets of colored line in above chart prove this fact. prices went down and after recession. prices also increased. In case of Tata motors. when people came back to the market. and TATA motors also comes down. Tenet five is that Trends are confirmed by volume. However.PGDM(2008-10) GRO UP-15. FINANCE-II . when the people stopped investing during recession. One thing which very clear is TATA motors react very badly whenever there is a negative sentiments comes in market results SENSEX comes down. it is warning that change is in the air. that means that the performance of related industries should move in one direction for the health of a particular industry. we can see that the movement of stock prices of Tata motors and SENSEX are more or less in the same direction.

1275 ap prox.PGDM(2008-10) GRO UP-15. NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT. As it is seen in the past 4 m onths TATA sha re price moved up and it keeps m aking on new level so per fect resista nce level for this sha re is not easy to predict as perfo rmance of this sha re is very good com re to all scrips of this pa segm ent. Resistance Level shows the price above which share price will not move in normal case on the other hand Support level shows the minimum share price which can be touched by share or crossing of this share will not be there in normal market condition Following is the Resistance & Support level of Maruti Suzuki & TATA Motors for the period of 2 months: Resista nce Lev el Support level RS. The above band of resistance and support level shows that the price of shares will move in between this range only until unless any wrong reaction came out in economy or when any correction takes place the prices will move in between this band only.430 ap prox. FINANCE-II .INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 31 1. (1-Ju l-09 to 7.Se ptResis tance Level Support Lev el Rs. Resistance & Support Level This Technical tool helps in telling that what would be the price band of share price in which it move in near future on the basis of past high and low levels made by a particular scrip.

The method of interpreting a moving average is to compare the relationship between a moving average of the security's price with the security's price itself. Yellow area in the graph indicates buy signal and Green area indicates sell signal.INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY 2. A buy signal is generated when the security's price rises above its moving average and a sell signal is generated when the security's price falls below its moving average. So keeping a hold position for the companies would be profitable in future. Maruti respectively. Simple Moving Average AN ALYSIS OF 32 (50 periods) -M edium Term A Moving Average is an indicator that shows the average value of a security's price over a period of time.PGDM(2008-10) GRO UP-15. In above figure we have compare the share price of Tata Motor and Maruti with moving average of 50 period of Tata Motors. NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT. FINANCE-II . It shows that both companies are performing better. so industry as whole is also performing outstanding. It is designed to keep you in line with the security's price trend by buying shortly after the security's price bottoms and selling shortly after it tops. In the near future both the companies show buy signal as their security prices rises above its moving average.

FINANCE-II . Yellow area in the graph indicates Buy signal and Green area indicates Sell signal. This Tool of 200 Periods tells us about the position of share to buy or sell for a long period say for 9-12 months. Long Term Simple Moving Average (200 periods) In the above chart Moving Average is an indicator that shows the average value of a security's price over a period of time. We have compare the share price of Tata Motor and Maruti with moving average of 200 period of Tata Motors.INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 33 3. In the near future both the companies show Buy signal NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT. A buy signal is generated when the security's price rises above its moving average and a sell signal is generated when the security's price falls below its moving average. Maruti respectively by taking share prices of 5 year to take out the Moving average for 200 periods.PGDM(2008-10) GRO UP-15.

here are three popular ways to use the MACD: crossovers. MARUTI SUZUKI MACD NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT. The trend of buying is seems to be over here or in coming few days and a selling or booking of profit could be seen hence MACD line could fall below EMA in coming time. and divergences. overbought/oversold. FINANCE-II . 4. Crossovers: Yellow area shows that there was situation when sell position occurred in the end of month June till mid of July as MACD curve below EMA or Signal line shows a sell situation otherwise we saw a buy position of TATA Motors most of the time Light Green area shows that investor want to buy and wan to be in hold position.PGDM(2008-10) GRO UP-15. called the "signal" (or "trigger") line is plotted on top of the MACD to show buy/sell opportunities. A 9-day exponential moving average(EMA). This shows that an investor can kept a hold position or can buy for longer period of time but as we can see in case of Maruti the moving average line is also rising which shows that Buy n hold position for very long period could be unprofitable a minor correction in the share price can bring down the share price line and then moving average line will easily cross the share price line. The MACD is the difference between a 26-day and 12-day exponential moving average.INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 34 as their security prices rises above its moving average. TATA MOTORS MACD Sell Overboug Over so Buy Above graph shows the MACD of TATA motors for the period of 6 months.

For both TATA Motors & Maruti Suzuki Overbought/Oversold: The amount of green lines in above graph on the up side shows the overbought situation by the investor which mean that investor buy more shares at this time and oversold situation occurs when green line is on the downside. M.e. here Yellow area shows the selling position as MACD line is below EMA line the Light Green area shows the buy position which occur last time in the end of July but now buy position for Maruti is created as EMA or signal line seems to be below MACD line and it will probably continue in near future.INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 35 Overboug Overso Crossover: The above graph shows the MACD of Maruti Suzuki.C helps in telling buying opportunities when the shorter moving average crosses above the longer moving average and selling opportunities when the shorter moving average crosses below the longer moving average. a shorter period Moving Average-20 periods) crosses either above a slower Moving Average (i.A. Following is the MAC of TATA Motors & Maruti Suzuki to understand the position of both companies average share movement: S NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT.e. M oving Average Crossover A crossover occurs when a faster Moving Average (i. FINANCE-II . a longer period Moving Average-50 periods) which is considered a bullish crossover or below which is considered a bearish crossover. 5.PGDM(2008-10) 20 Periods GRO UP-15.

The increasing trend in the prices after buy signal of shares shows that good amount of profit could be achieved in future if stick with hold position. longer moving average of 50 periods cut shorter moving average from the lower side and shows a holding position of shares in coming future also. A cross above a moving average suggests that the bulls are is in control and that the price may be getting ready to make a move higher and Maruti Share Prices show that trend of moving up prices.INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 36 20 Periods B 50 Periods Above is the MAC graph of TATA Motors for the period of 6 months in which ‘S’ denote the selling situation or position whereas ‘B’ is the point after approx 1 month when we saw a bounce back in share prices hence a buy signal occurs which is because. NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT. FINANCE-II . Below is the MAC graph of Maruti Suzuki for past 6 months in which we haven’t see any sell position till yet the movement of share price is always on the positive side that is increasing so we can say that buying opportunities is always there in case of Maruti Suzuki.PGDM(2008-10) GRO UP-15. above yellow circle shows that area when price fall below average price and then it move onto lower side. A move below the moving average suggests that the bears are in control of the price action and that the asset will likely move lower.

the bands contract. and when the market is LOUD.INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 37 Bu No Sell Position or Always Position of 6. When the stock is outside the upper end of the Bollinger band it is considered as NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT. Basically. As we can see in the graph is that the at most of the time the graph lies between the middle band and the upper band which shows an increasing price trend in the market and it’s called Riding the Band.) BOLLINGER BAND Bollinger bands are used to measure a market’s volatility. TATA Mo tors On the graph it can be seen the overall trend of the market and quick reference for supply and demand as well as support and resistance areas by using a 20 days moving average and 2 standard deviation in calculating the Bollinger Bands. the bands expand.PGDM(2008-10) GRO UP-15. this little tool tells us whether the market is quiet or whether the market is LOUD! When the market is quiet. FINANCE-II Ma ruti .

An oversold stock has gone down too fast. Knowing whether or not prices are high or low on a relative basis can enhance the interpretation of other indicators.e. May. there is a possibility of trend reversal. therefore it becomes an important factor in determining the price trend as it tells that the prices have not fallen very fast in these six months. The buy and sell signals are not given when prices reach the upper or lower bands. i. which means that stock has gone up too fast and when a stock is outside the lower band it is ‘OVERSOLD’. A security can become overbought or oversold for an extended period of time. while in mid of July the stock went below the lower band. The stock also shows overbought many times during the six months but it did not show any oversold trend. mid July and mid august the stock of TATA motors crossed the upper band which means that during these periods the prices rose very fast. During the months of April. FINANCE-II . During the june month the bands contracted very much which shows low volatility. but then onwards the bands started to widen which creates high volatility and looking at the future scenario it may be analysed that the stock will see a fall as at the end of august the band was overbought. It’s also seen that the volatility increased to new highs after July because the bands started to widen. Such levels merely indicate that prices are high or low on a relative basis. CONCLUSION NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT. but in regards all other technical factors should be considered while buying. because when price is trading near the upper or lower Bollinger band line. Initially the bands show slight slope and lie approximately parallel to each other. The prices fell too fast and are susceptible to bargain hunting. and it can assist with timing issues in trading.PGDM(2008-10) GRO UP-15. The overbought and oversold stocks are apt to reverse course.INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 38 ‘OVERBOUGHT’. It’s better to buy stocks when it touches the lower band. this means that the price of the stock is oscillating up and down between the bands through a channel.

FINANCE-II . 430 to Rs. According to Indian Statistical Organization the per capita income (Rs. whenever there is a negative sentiment in the market regarding TATA Motors there is a steep fall in the stock price of TATA Motors but we have seen quick recovery in its share prices to regain its primary trend E. The Indian auto market is still untapped the majority of the people in country don’t own a four wheeler and all the major auto companies are trying to increase their sales by several moves. moreover in two wheeler segment many companies like Mahindra and Mahindra grow even more than expectations. Indian Automobile has a lot of scope for both two wheelers and four wheelers due to development in infrastructure of the country and especially the rural sector in which demand of two wheeler has increased even in recession. From the Technical Analysis of both companies we come to know that the share price of Maruti will move in the band of Rs.4% which shows potential to buy vehicle in auto industry.1425 and that of TATA Motors will move in the range of Rs.1275 to Rs.90% after downfall. 490 if certain correction made in the market. We have also come to know that share price movement of TATA Motors is just according to the movement of SENSEX. Like TATA has launch NANO the people’s car and now TATA motors is also planning to come out with an electric car as well as hybrid car. The growth rate of Indian Automobile is so fast that by 2016 Indian Industry will be world 7 largest manufacturer in all sections.38000) is increasing and national income at the rate of 14. Recommendations NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT.g as we seen in last 3-4 months TATA recovers approx.INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 39 Indian Automobile Industry is in the growth phase and the expected growth rate is 9-10% for FY2009-10 compare to last year growth rate which was just 0.7% and the above facts and figures in our study also support this truth.PGDM(2008-10) GRO UP-15. By analyzing the current trend of Indian Economy and Automobile Industry we can say that being a developing economy there is lot of scope for growth and this industry still have to cross many levels so there is huge opportunities to invest in and this is proving as more and more foreign Companies setting up there ventures in India.

so at this point of time those who invested earlier can book their profit or new investors can buy now and sell with in short period of time by earning profit in short period of time.INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 40 By analyzing the industry on various parameters with the help of implementing Fundamental and Technical tools we came to know that this industry has a lot of potential to grow in future. Through Technical analysis of TATA Motors and Maruti it can be recommended that for now Maruti share price shows that it’s a time to hold the position or buy more shares as there is scope in further rise in share prices until and unless any negative reaction or sentiments comes in the Economy.PGDM(2008-10) GRO UP-15. BIBLIOGRAPHY NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT. The numbers which came out in the end of financial year 2009 prove that even in the period of recession the overall sales went up is sufficient to support to this fact. Investing in Maruti Suzuki for long time could be a good option whereas in TATA motors there is a chance of getting correction. as if we take an example of TATA motors it gives approx 90% return in a period of just 3 months while Maruti Suzuki shows always a buy and hold position because there is possibility of growth in future. FINANCE-II . as it already went on high side in a very short period of time so holding the shares for long time could be a wrong step. The returns which came out of this industry were very impressive recently. So recommending to invest in Automobile Industry have no doubt is going to be a good and smart option because this industry is booming like never before not only in India but all around the world. same situation is in two wheeler segment with market leader Hero-Honda a debt free company also have bright future ahead.

PGDM(2008-10) GRO UP-15.bseindia.in FDI statistic government of India India Central Statistical Organization Economic Times NEW DELHI INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT.googlefinance.google.com www.rbi.INDIAN AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY AN ALYSIS OF 41 www.com www.yahoofinance.in www.com www.co.com www.moneycontrol. FINANCE-II .com www.worldfact.org.

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