# 2010 H2 Mathematics Prelim Exam Binomial and Poisson Distributions

S/No
1 2 AJC

(i) 0.295 (ii) 0.0311 (iii) 0.328 (iv) 0.989 ACJC Breakages occur randomly or Breakages occur independently or Mean number of breakages is a constant (i) 22, (ii) T Po(25.9), 0.578 ACJC (i) 0.00330, (ii) 91 CJC DH HCI (i) 0.385 (ii) 0.704 (iii) 0.983 (iv) Least n = 16 (i) 0.125 (3 s.f.) (iii) 0.0944 (3 s.f.) (iv) 0.191 (3 s.f.)

3 4 5 6

7 8 9 10 11

IJC JJC MI MJC NJC

(i) The condition is that the rate of call-ins received by the centre is constant throughout a month / the call-in occurs randomly / The call-ins occur in a month are independent of one another (ii) 0.810 Minimum value of n is 28 0.0115 (3 s.f.); 0.781 (3 s.f.); 107 0.0130 (3 s.f.) (i) 0.961 (ii) 0.657 (iii) 0.0182

0.205, 0.541, 0.916 (i) 0.915 (ii) 0.583 (iii) 0.0206

(ii) 0.0503 (iii) (1)There are two mutually exclusive outcomes – either there are at least 13 arrivals in each two-hour period or there isn’t. (2)The probability of having at least 13 arrivals for each two hour period remains constant for each of the 60 two-hour periods. (3)There is a fixed number of 60 two-hour periods independently selected under consideration.

12 13

(iv) 0.00609 NYJC (i) 0.0201 , (ii) 0.101 , (iv) least n=58 NYJC (i) 0.76006, (ii) 0.00652 (iii) It is not suitable since the weather conditions may have changed over such a long time period and the model may no longer be applicable. (ii) 0.806 (iii) n = 12
(i) The average number of incoming calls received per hour is constant throughout the opening hours of the mall. OR The probability of 2 or more incoming calls received in a very short interval of time is negligible. (ii) 0.364 (iii) 0.115 (iv) 0.6551 (v) 0.0426

14 15

PJC RJC

16

RVH

0.150

By using a suitable approximation.159 TPJC (ii) Y ~ B(500.7556 0.493 Method 2: (Binomial Distribution) 0.772. [1] 2 ACJC/II/11 [A-level] In a hotel. The number of cups that are broken each day while washing averages 2. he will close down the shop. Comment on whether he should close down the shop.0072) (iii) 0.483 (ii) 0.564 1 AJC/II/10 [Challenging] At a newly opened shop.0381 (iii) 0.513 0. [3] (iv) Explain whether the Poisson distribution is a good model for the number of orders for herbal chicken soup in a day.0000587 SAJC (a) 0. He decides to observe the lunch time crowd from 12 pm to 2 pm for 25 days selected at random.1.949 (iii) 0.703 (ii) 0.927 approx. 0.0487 (ii) 0. [2] Find the probability that in 100 randomly chosen one-hour periods. the shop owner wishes to assess if he should continue with the business. of Buzzland spies is independent of the no. .756 TJC 22 23 24 VJC YJC YJC (a) 63 (b)(i) 0.) (i) (ii) (iii) Find the probability that there are at least 6.17 18 19 20 21 RVH (i) 0. from 11 am to 7 pm. The no. find the probability that he makes a profit of at least 40% of his total cost incurred per day. but less than 10 orders received in a randomly chosen one-hour period.647 (c) Method 1: (CLT) 0. The cost price and selling price of a bowl of herbal chicken soup are \$8 and \$20 respectively. 0.0. SRJC 1 pair or 2 pairs of twins P (Y ≤ 6) = 0. [1] Assume that the number of broken cups and saucers follow a Poisson distribution. of Dodoland spies.294 (b)(i) 80 (ii) 20. (Assume that the orders received are independent. the shop receives an average of more than 5 orders in a one-hour period. 10. the number of orders for herbal chicken soup received in a randomly chosen 30-minute interval follows a Poisson distribution with mean 2. large number of cups and saucers are washed each day.112 (i) 0. a condition under which a Poisson distribution would be a suitable probability model. (ii) 0.213 (iii) 11 (iv) 0.3.734. [4] After operating the shop for half a year. [2] The shop owner incurs a fixed operating cost of \$250 per day. The shop is opened for 8 hours daily. If there are less than 14 days with more than 10 orders during the lunch period. State in context.

State a possible model for the distribution of T. Find the least value of n. find the probability that in 5 years. derive the approximate inequality 10. Using a suitable approximation. this particular residential area is flooded at least twice. (i) Find the probability that in 4 months. independently of the number of cups broken. find the probability that the average weekly total number of broken cups and saucers does not exceed 26. Using a suitable approximation.2n ≤ −0. this residential area is flooded at most thrice each year is found to be less than 0. [3] The number of saucers broken each day averages 1. [2] A random sample of 100 weeks is chosen. [2] [4] [4] .8 n . When caught. this particular residential area is flooded at least 11 times. [2] 4 CJC/II/7 [Basic] The occurrences of floods per year at a particular residential area in Singapore follow a Poisson distribution with mean 4.6. [4] Hence find the least possible number of fish to be caught. it is proposed that the residential area be observed for 40 years.5 − 0. the probability that at least 3 cups are broken is 0. (i) What is the probability that the 10th fish caught is the sixth fish that is less than 8 cm long? [2] (ii) A large number. [1] The probability that there will be at least two days in n days with at least 3 broken cups is more than 0. The total number of cups broken and saucers broken during a week of 7 days is denoted by T. Find the probability that in at most 5 of these 12 periods. Using a suitable approximation. [3] ACJC/II/12 [A-level] Fish are bred in large batches and allowed to grow until they are caught at random for sale. The probability that in at least n years out of these 40 years. find the least value of n. only 20% of the fish measure less than 8 cm long. [2] (ii) A random sample of 12 periods of 4 months is taken. n.999.350 correct to 3 significant figures. this particular residential area is flooded at least twice. (iv) In a long term study of the flooding problem in this particular residential area.(i) (ii) Show that on any randomly chosen day. (iii) Using a suitable approximation. of fish are caught and the probability of there being 10 or fewer fish in the catch which measures less than 8 cm long is at most 0.8.0227 .

(i) show that the value of λ is 32. [3] by using a suitable approximation. State a condition under which a Poisson distribution would be a suitable probability model for the number of faults detected on the track on a randomly chosen day. the number of call-ins received is more than 25 but not more than 40. calculate the probability that she terminates her subscription. Find the probability that he terminates his mobile line subscription.7. [4] (ii) The centre also has 70 support groups. the numbers of unsolicited text messages and phone calls received by a mobile line subscriber follow independent Poisson distributions with means 5 and 3 respectively.816. in the next 10 weeks. the average number of call-ins received in a month regarding alcohol abuse problem is denoted by λ . [2] The subscriber decides to terminate his mobile line subscription if. the probability of having an average of at least 4 people per group successfully correcting their alcohol abuse problem is more than 0. State a condition under which the distribution used is valid. The probability of receiving at most 9 such calls in a week is 0. [2] . By using a suitable approximation. each consisting of n people. 3 in 20 people in such support groups will be successful in correcting their alcohol abuse problem. (i) Find the probability that the subscriber receives exactly 2 unsolicited text messages in a day. determine the minimum value of n. Assuming that there are 4 weeks in a month.5 DHS/II/10 [A-level] In a randomly chosen week. It is known that. find the probability that in a month. Find the probability that on a randomly chosen day.5. [4] (iii) (iv) 6 HCI/II/11 [Challenging] At the counselling centre CareforSociety. there are more than 3 weeks where he receives more than 10 unsolicited text messages or phone calls in a week. which help one another to deal with alcohol abuse problems. [4] 7 IJC/II/12 [A-level] A roller-coaster ride has a safety system to detect faults on the track. [3] Another subscriber intends to terminate her subscription if she receives a total of 20 or more unsolicited text messages or phone calls in the next 2 weeks. [1] Faults on the track are detected at an average rate of 0. the number of faults detected on the track is between 2 and 6 inclusive. Given that in the 70 support groups. on average.16 per day. correct to 3 significant figures.701. [2] (ii) Show the probability that the subscriber receives at most 10 unsolicited text messages or phone calls in a week is 0.

2. p.97. Find the greatest value of n. [3] After a certain time. Find the probability that. By using a suitable approximation. there are no guitars sold. [4] The virus then mutates to a much more deadly form and the value of p is now 0. [3] 9 MI/II/10 [Basic] There is an outbreak of an infection caused by a new strain of a virus in City X. at most 5 are not infected [3] . in a random sample of 12 people chosen from City X. in a random sample of 100 days.Find the probability that in a randomly chosen period of 20 days. in a random sample of 100 people.6.2. the mean number of guitars sold per day is more than 1. find the probability that. [4] 8 JJC/II/7 [Basic] The number of guitars sold by a music shop per day follows a Poisson distribution with mean λ . Find the probability that in a randomly chosen period of 20 days. Faults are detected by this system at an average rate of 0. independently of the faults detected on the track. there will be more than 95 days in which less than 4 guitars are sold per day.15 that the mean number of faults detected on the track per day over a randomly chosen long period of n days is at least 0. Show that λ = 1. correct to 3 decimal places. the virus mutates and the value of p increases to 0. find the probability that. [2] There is a probability of at least 0. of a randomly chosen person being infected is 0. there are at least 60 but not more than 80 who are infected. find the probability that. It is known that on 2 in 7 days.5.05 per day. [2] (i) (ii) Calculate the probability that less than 4 guitars are sold in a day.253 . the number of faults detected on the track is at most 1 given that the total number of faults detected is 5. there are not more than 4 faults detected on the track. By using a suitable approximation. The probability. in a random sample of 100 people. [3] There is also a separate safety system to detect faults on the roller-coaster train itself. [4] (iii) Calculate the probability that in a period of 90 days. [2] Using a suitable approximation. at least 4 are infected.

[3] 12 NYJC/II/9 [A-level] A vehicle rental company has 7 cars and 4 vans available for rental per day. in a randomly selected one-hour period. Calls are received at random times. correct to 3 significant figures. and independently. [3] Using a suitable approximation. It is known that the request for cars has a mean of 4 per day. Another nurse independently goes through the same procedure.0638. [4] A nurse records the number of calls received by the hospital per week for 100 randomly chosen weeks. the number of weeks in which the hospital and police station receive a total of more than 11 calls is greater than 45. (iii) Giving two reasons. the request for vans has a mean of 2 per day. find the probability that there are at most 50 two-hour periods with less than 13 arrivals each. (i) Find the probability that the hospital and the police station receive a total of more than 11 calls in a randomly chosen week. In a one-hour period. it is expected that there are 4 arrivals and 3 departures. in this context. Find the probability that the sum of the two averages obtained by the nurses is at most 23. explaining clearly why the approximation is appropriate. [3] A study of the domestic airport arrivals for 60 randomly selected two-hour periods is being conducted to see if there are at least 13 arrivals for each two-hour period. a hospital and a police station receive 36 and 15 calls respectively in a three-week period. explain why the binomial distribution is a suitable model for the study of the domestic airport arrivals. . (ii) [1] Find the probability that. [3] (ii) (iii) 11 NJC/II/10 [A-level] Suppose that the arrival and departure of aircrafts at a domestic airport follow two independent Poisson distributions.10 MJC/II/10 [A-level] On average. there are less than 2 departures given that the airport handles a total of exactly 9 arrivals and departures. The number of calls received by the hospital may be assumed to be independent of the number of calls received by the police station. She then calculates the average number of calls received per week based on her data. (iv) [2] Using a suitable approximation. find the probability that out of 50 randomly chosen weeks. (i) Show that the probability that there are at least 13 arrivals in a two-hour period is 0.