2010 H2 Mathematics Prelim Exam Binomial and Poisson Distributions

S/No
1 2 AJC

Answers(includes comments and graph)
(i) 0.295 (ii) 0.0311 (iii) 0.328 (iv) 0.989 ACJC Breakages occur randomly or Breakages occur independently or Mean number of breakages is a constant (i) 22, (ii) T Po(25.9), 0.578 ACJC (i) 0.00330, (ii) 91 CJC DH HCI (i) 0.385 (ii) 0.704 (iii) 0.983 (iv) Least n = 16 (i) 0.125 (3 s.f.) (iii) 0.0944 (3 s.f.) (iv) 0.191 (3 s.f.)

3 4 5 6

7 8 9 10 11

IJC JJC MI MJC NJC

(i) The condition is that the rate of call-ins received by the centre is constant throughout a month / the call-in occurs randomly / The call-ins occur in a month are independent of one another (ii) 0.810 Minimum value of n is 28 0.0115 (3 s.f.); 0.781 (3 s.f.); 107 0.0130 (3 s.f.) (i) 0.961 (ii) 0.657 (iii) 0.0182

0.205, 0.541, 0.916 (i) 0.915 (ii) 0.583 (iii) 0.0206

(ii) 0.0503 (iii) (1)There are two mutually exclusive outcomes – either there are at least 13 arrivals in each two-hour period or there isn’t. (2)The probability of having at least 13 arrivals for each two hour period remains constant for each of the 60 two-hour periods. (3)There is a fixed number of 60 two-hour periods independently selected under consideration.

12 13

(iv) 0.00609 NYJC (i) 0.0201 , (ii) 0.101 , (iv) least n=58 NYJC (i) 0.76006, (ii) 0.00652 (iii) It is not suitable since the weather conditions may have changed over such a long time period and the model may no longer be applicable. (ii) 0.806 (iii) n = 12
(i) The average number of incoming calls received per hour is constant throughout the opening hours of the mall. OR The probability of 2 or more incoming calls received in a very short interval of time is negligible. (ii) 0.364 (iii) 0.115 (iv) 0.6551 (v) 0.0426

14 15

PJC RJC

16

RVH

0.150

By using a suitable approximation.159 TPJC (ii) Y ~ B(500.7556 0.493 Method 2: (Binomial Distribution) 0.772. [1] 2 ACJC/II/11 [A-level] In a hotel. The number of cups that are broken each day while washing averages 2. he will close down the shop. Comment on whether he should close down the shop.0072) (iii) 0.483 (ii) 0.564 1 AJC/II/10 [Challenging] At a newly opened shop.0381 (iii) 0.513 0. [3] (iv) Explain whether the Poisson distribution is a good model for the number of orders for herbal chicken soup in a day.0000587 SAJC (a) 0. He decides to observe the lunch time crowd from 12 pm to 2 pm for 25 days selected at random.1.949 (iii) 0.703 (ii) 0.927 approx. 0.0487 (ii) 0. [2] Find the probability that in 100 randomly chosen one-hour periods. the shop owner wishes to assess if he should continue with the business. of Buzzland spies is independent of the no. .756 TJC 22 23 24 VJC YJC YJC (a) 63 (b)(i) 0.) (i) (ii) (iii) Find the probability that there are at least 6.17 18 19 20 21 RVH (i) 0. from 11 am to 7 pm. The no. find the probability that he makes a profit of at least 40% of his total cost incurred per day. but less than 10 orders received in a randomly chosen one-hour period.647 (c) Method 1: (CLT) 0. The cost price and selling price of a bowl of herbal chicken soup are $8 and $20 respectively. 0.0. SRJC 1 pair or 2 pairs of twins P (Y ≤ 6) = 0. [1] Assume that the number of broken cups and saucers follow a Poisson distribution. of Dodoland spies.294 (b)(i) 80 (ii) 20. (Assume that the orders received are independent. the shop receives an average of more than 5 orders in a one-hour period. 10. the number of orders for herbal chicken soup received in a randomly chosen 30-minute interval follows a Poisson distribution with mean 2. large number of cups and saucers are washed each day.112 (i) 0. a condition under which a Poisson distribution would be a suitable probability model. (ii) 0.213 (iii) 11 (iv) 0.3.734. [4] After operating the shop for half a year. [2] The shop owner incurs a fixed operating cost of $250 per day. The shop is opened for 8 hours daily. If there are less than 14 days with more than 10 orders during the lunch period. State in context.

State a possible model for the distribution of T. Find the least value of n. find the probability that in 5 years. derive the approximate inequality 10. Using a suitable approximation. this particular residential area is flooded at least twice. (i) Find the probability that in 4 months. independently of the number of cups broken. find the probability that the average weekly total number of broken cups and saucers does not exceed 26. Using a suitable approximation.2n ≤ −0. this residential area is flooded at most thrice each year is found to be less than 0. [3] The number of saucers broken each day averages 1. [2] A random sample of 100 weeks is chosen. [2] [4] [4] .8 n . When caught. this particular residential area is flooded at least 11 times. [2] 4 CJC/II/7 [Basic] The occurrences of floods per year at a particular residential area in Singapore follow a Poisson distribution with mean 4.6. [4] Hence find the least possible number of fish to be caught. it is proposed that the residential area be observed for 40 years.5 − 0. the probability that at least 3 cups are broken is 0. (i) What is the probability that the 10th fish caught is the sixth fish that is less than 8 cm long? [2] (ii) A large number. [1] The probability that there will be at least two days in n days with at least 3 broken cups is more than 0. The total number of cups broken and saucers broken during a week of 7 days is denoted by T. Find the probability that in at most 5 of these 12 periods. Using a suitable approximation. [3] ACJC/II/12 [A-level] Fish are bred in large batches and allowed to grow until they are caught at random for sale. The probability that in at least n years out of these 40 years. find the least value of n. only 20% of the fish measure less than 8 cm long. [2] (ii) A random sample of 12 periods of 4 months is taken. n.999.350 correct to 3 significant figures. this particular residential area is flooded at least twice. (iv) In a long term study of the flooding problem in this particular residential area.(i) (ii) Show that on any randomly chosen day. (iii) Using a suitable approximation. of fish are caught and the probability of there being 10 or fewer fish in the catch which measures less than 8 cm long is at most 0.8.0227 .

(i) show that the value of λ is 32. [3] by using a suitable approximation. State a condition under which a Poisson distribution would be a suitable probability model for the number of faults detected on the track on a randomly chosen day. the number of call-ins received is more than 25 but not more than 40. calculate the probability that she terminates her subscription. Find the probability that he terminates his mobile line subscription.7. [4] (ii) The centre also has 70 support groups. the numbers of unsolicited text messages and phone calls received by a mobile line subscriber follow independent Poisson distributions with means 5 and 3 respectively.816. in the next 10 weeks. the average number of call-ins received in a month regarding alcohol abuse problem is denoted by λ . [2] The subscriber decides to terminate his mobile line subscription if. the probability of having an average of at least 4 people per group successfully correcting their alcohol abuse problem is more than 0. State a condition under which the distribution used is valid. The probability of receiving at most 9 such calls in a week is 0. [2] . By using a suitable approximation. each consisting of n people. 3 in 20 people in such support groups will be successful in correcting their alcohol abuse problem. (i) Find the probability that the subscriber receives exactly 2 unsolicited text messages in a day. determine the minimum value of n. Assuming that there are 4 weeks in a month.5 DHS/II/10 [A-level] In a randomly chosen week. It is known that. find the probability that in a month. Find the probability that on a randomly chosen day.5. [4] (iii) (iv) 6 HCI/II/11 [Challenging] At the counselling centre CareforSociety. there are more than 3 weeks where he receives more than 10 unsolicited text messages or phone calls in a week. which help one another to deal with alcohol abuse problems. [4] 7 IJC/II/12 [A-level] A roller-coaster ride has a safety system to detect faults on the track. [3] Another subscriber intends to terminate her subscription if she receives a total of 20 or more unsolicited text messages or phone calls in the next 2 weeks. [1] Faults on the track are detected at an average rate of 0. the number of faults detected on the track is between 2 and 6 inclusive. Given that in the 70 support groups. on average.16 per day. correct to 3 significant figures.701. [2] (ii) Show the probability that the subscriber receives at most 10 unsolicited text messages or phone calls in a week is 0.

2. p.97. Find the greatest value of n. [3] After a certain time. Find the probability that. By using a suitable approximation. there are no guitars sold. [4] The virus then mutates to a much more deadly form and the value of p is now 0. [3] 9 MI/II/10 [Basic] There is an outbreak of an infection caused by a new strain of a virus in City X. at most 5 are not infected [3] . in a random sample of 12 people chosen from City X. in a random sample of 100 days.Find the probability that in a randomly chosen period of 20 days. in a random sample of 100 people.6.2. the mean number of guitars sold per day is more than 1. find the probability that. [4] 8 JJC/II/7 [Basic] The number of guitars sold by a music shop per day follows a Poisson distribution with mean λ . Find the probability that in a randomly chosen period of 20 days. Faults are detected by this system at an average rate of 0. independently of the faults detected on the track. there will be more than 95 days in which less than 4 guitars are sold per day.15 that the mean number of faults detected on the track per day over a randomly chosen long period of n days is at least 0. Show that λ = 1. correct to 3 decimal places. the virus mutates and the value of p increases to 0. find the probability that. [2] There is a probability of at least 0. of a randomly chosen person being infected is 0. there are at least 60 but not more than 80 who are infected. find the probability that. It is known that on 2 in 7 days.5.05 per day. [2] (i) (ii) Calculate the probability that less than 4 guitars are sold in a day.253 . the number of faults detected on the track is at most 1 given that the total number of faults detected is 5. there are not more than 4 faults detected on the track. By using a suitable approximation. The probability. in a random sample of 100 people. [3] There is also a separate safety system to detect faults on the roller-coaster train itself. [4] (iii) Calculate the probability that in a period of 90 days. [2] Using a suitable approximation. at least 4 are infected.

[3] 12 NYJC/II/9 [A-level] A vehicle rental company has 7 cars and 4 vans available for rental per day. in a randomly selected one-hour period. Calls are received at random times. correct to 3 significant figures. and independently. [3] Using a suitable approximation. It is known that the request for cars has a mean of 4 per day. Another nurse independently goes through the same procedure.0638. [4] A nurse records the number of calls received by the hospital per week for 100 randomly chosen weeks. the number of weeks in which the hospital and police station receive a total of more than 11 calls is greater than 45. (iii) Giving two reasons. the request for vans has a mean of 2 per day. find the probability that there are at most 50 two-hour periods with less than 13 arrivals each. (i) Find the probability that the hospital and the police station receive a total of more than 11 calls in a randomly chosen week. In a one-hour period. it is expected that there are 4 arrivals and 3 departures. in this context. Find the probability that the sum of the two averages obtained by the nurses is at most 23. explaining clearly why the approximation is appropriate. [3] A study of the domestic airport arrivals for 60 randomly selected two-hour periods is being conducted to see if there are at least 13 arrivals for each two-hour period. a hospital and a police station receive 36 and 15 calls respectively in a three-week period. explain why the binomial distribution is a suitable model for the study of the domestic airport arrivals. . (ii) [1] Find the probability that. [3] (ii) (iii) 11 NJC/II/10 [A-level] Suppose that the arrival and departure of aircrafts at a domestic airport follow two independent Poisson distributions.10 MJC/II/10 [A-level] On average. there are less than 2 departures given that the airport handles a total of exactly 9 arrivals and departures. The number of calls received by the hospital may be assumed to be independent of the number of calls received by the police station. She then calculates the average number of calls received per week based on her data. (iv) [2] Using a suitable approximation. find the probability that out of 50 randomly chosen weeks. (i) Show that the probability that there are at least 13 arrivals in a two-hour period is 0.

[2] Find the probability that some requests for a vehicle have to be refused on a particular day. [2] Explain why the value found in (ii) is larger than the value found in (i). find the least number of days such that the average number of requests for vehicles exceeding 7 is less than 0.760. [2] (ii) (iii) 15 RJC/II/10 [A-level] Incoming telephone calls to the management office of a shopping mall are received randomly and independently. A “bad” month is a month where there are at least 4 floods occurring. [3] 13 NYJC/II/11 [A-level] On the tropical island of Stabletree. [3] use a suitable approximation to find the probability that out of fifty years. find an approximate probability that there are more than forty-five short ribbons that do not need to be discarded. records show that the number of floods occurring each month may be modelled using a Poisson distribution with mean 2. (i) State a condition under which a Poisson distribution would be a suitable probability model and find the percentage of short ribbons that do not need to be discarded. and assuming independence of flood occurrences. A short ribbon is not discarded if it contains at most 1 defective spot. The roll of ribbon is cut into short ribbons. [1] Using a suitable approximation.001. 5 defective spots are found per 10 m of ribbon.1. there are less than 5 bad years. . [4] (iii) Comment on whether it is suitable to use the model to estimate the probability that the year 2060 (which is 50 years from now) will be a bad year. (i) (ii) show that the probability that there are at most 2 bad months in a year is 0. each of length 1 m. [3] Given 52 randomly chosen short ribbons. and a “bad” year is one where there are more than 2 bad months in the year. [1] 14 PJC/II/9 [A-level] Defective spots are found randomly on a roll of ribbon. On average. at an average rate of 6. [4] Determine the maximum number of short ribbons required for which the probability of at least 3 short ribbons discarded does not exceed 0. The mall (including its management office) is open from 10 am to 10 pm.75 per hour.(i) (ii) (iii) (iv) Find the probability that the number of request for a vehicle exceeds 11 on a particular day. Regarding a month as a twelfth part of a year.

has mean μ and standard deviation σ . (ii) (iii) Find the probability of receiving no fewer than 8 calls in a particular hour. Using a suitable approximation.(i) State.2. and no fewer than 8 calls in each of the 2 remaining one-hour periods. [1] (iii) (iv) . Y . The number of cases for each disciplinary offence is assumed to have an independent Poisson distribution. giving your answer correct to 4 decimal places. Use a suitable approximation to find P ( μ − σ < Y < μ + σ ) . it is the third day in the school week in which the discipline master caught at least 4 students having long hair in a day. the mean number of disciplinary offences recorded per school week involving failure to wear the school badge is 4. in the context of the question. (v) [4] (iv) A day is considered busy if there are more than 90 incoming calls received from 10 am to 10 pm. [3] (ii) In a school week in which there are more than 7 cases of disciplinary offence involving long hair. The mean number of disciplinary offences recorded per day involving long hair is 1. (i) Find the probability that at most 9 cases of disciplinary offence are recorded in a given school week. [2] In 4 non-overlapping one-hour periods. [3] 16 RVH/II/6 [Basic] Research has shown that 5 out of 8 students of a particular school make use of the school’s e-learning portal. (You may assume that Monday is the first day of school for a school week. find the probability that at most 9 cases of disciplinary offence are recorded.12. Assuming that each school week consists of five school days. Find the probability that the 3rd busy day in a month occurs on the 15th day of the month. exactly 7 calls in another one-hour period. a condition required for a Poisson distribution to be a suitable model for the number of incoming calls from 10 am to 10 pm. [3] The number of incoming calls from 10 am to 10 pm. [1] Assume that the condition in (i) is satisfied. [3] 17 RVH/II/12 [A-level] The two most common types of disciplinary offences in a particular boy school is keeping long hair and failure to wear the school badge.) [3] Explain why the Poisson distribution may not be a good model for the number of disciplinary cases involving long hair. find the probability of receiving at most 6 calls in a one-hour period. in a school year. [3] Calculate the probability that on a Thursday in a particular school week. find the probability that more than 80 students make use of the school’s e-learning portal. Three random samples of 40 students are chosen.

A plastic sheet will be rejected if it has at least 2 scratches. scratches occur at random and independently at an average of λ scratches per plastic sheet. are randomly selected and inspected for quality control.3 Buzzland spies and 0. The bureau investigated a certain number of cities and caught 23 Buzzland spies and 11 Dodoland spies. [3] Find the probability that the mean number of pairs of twins born in 50 weeks is less than 1. using a suitable approximation. λ2 .12. [2] 2 500 plastic sheets produced by manufacturer A. estimate the probability that there are less than 73 two-week periods with at most 7 pairs of twins born in 3 years. Find the probability of having at most 7 pairs of twins to be born in a two-week period. stating an assumption needed for your calculation in the context of the question.000 Zozoland cities. (i) Show that. [2] (iv) (v) 20 TPJC/II/10 [A-level] In the production of plastic sheets.18 (a) SAJC/II/8 [Challenging] A secret source claims that 0. (i) (ii) (iii) Find the most probable number(s) of pairs of twins that are to be born weekly. (i) The investigation bureau will only do extensive combing of a city where there are more than five spies present. the probability that a plastic sheet has at least 2 scratches is approximately . Find the most likely number of cities that had been investigated. If the claim were true. if λ is sufficiently small. for which the value of λ is 0. estimate the number of cities that will be under investigation. it is found that on average the number of pairs of twins born weekly are 2. [1] [2] Assuming there are 26 two-week periods in a year.4 Dodoland spies in a typical Zozoland city. Given that there are 10. that there are at least five spies living in a Zozoland suburb of 1200 residents? [3] Another independent source (assumed to be reliable) claims that there is an average of 1. what is the probability. [3] Using a suitable approximation. You may assume that the number of weeks is more than 5.3% of the residents in the suburbs of Zozoland are spies from Buzzland. (b) [3] (ii) [4] 19 SRJC/II/11 [A-level] In a certain country.8. find the least number of consecutive weeks such that the probability of having at most 20 pairs of twins born falls below half. Let Y denote the number of plastic sheets rejected.

5 scratches per plastic sheet.05. (iii) Using a suitable approximation. λ = 0. By using a normal distribution to approximate the Poisson distribution. On a weekend evening. (a) If the stall holder wants the probability of more than 5 prizes to be won on a particular day to be less than 0. [4] 21 TJC/II/10 [A-level] At a stall in a fun-fair. the largest value of λ such that the probability of having more than 30 arrivals during the peak period is less than 0.1. there will be at most 10 arrivals given that there are more than 5 arrivals. find the probability that there are a total of at least 11 scratches found in the 45 plastic sheets selected. N games are played. 60 games are played. [3] (b) On another day.5 and 3 inclusive. 25 plastic sheets from manufacturer A and 20 plastic sheets from manufacturer B are randomly selected. Find the probability that the average number of prizes won each day is between 2. [4] 22 VJC/II/9 [Challenging] The number of arrivals per minute at a fast food drive-through outlet has a Poisson distribution with mean λ .20 (ii) TPJC/II/10 continue… State the exact distribution of Y. Using a suitable approximation. N = 200. the management wants to control the number of arrivals during the peak period which spans over a 30-minute interval. find. to 4 decimal places. [4] Another manufacturer B independently produces plastic sheets with an average of 0. the probability that at most 6 plastic sheets are rejected. Find the probability that in a 10-minute interval.05. find the largest number of games that can be played on that day. games of chance are played. [3] [3] (c) The stall is open for 70 days and on each day. by using a suitable approximation. Find. find the probability that prizes are won in at most 5% of the games if : (i) (ii) N = 60. [3] In view of space constraints. [5] .8 . The probability that a participant wins a prize in each game is 0.

the number of customers purchasing postal products in a two-hour period is an independent Poisson distribution with mean 10. find the probability that the total number of customers during off-peak hours is less than thrice the total number of customers during peak hours on a particular day. the number of customers purchasing postal products in a half-hour period during peak hours follows a Poisson distribution with mean 5. [5] .22 YJC/II/11 [A-level] A multiple choice test consists of 20 questions. what is the expected score obtained by a student? [2] 50 students took the test. [3] 23 YJC/II/12 [A-level] At a post office. find the probability of getting at least four but less than nine correct answers.30 pm. (i) (ii) Find the probability that there are more than 15 customers from 12. [2] Suppose that each correct answer is awarded five marks and each incorrect answer carries a penalty of one mark. find the probability that the mean score is more than 12 marks. each with four possible answers.30 pm to 1. The peak period for the post office is from 12 pm to 1. If a student randomly chooses the answer to each question. During the off. [2] Using suitable approximations.peak period. of which only one is correct. Using a suitable approximation.30 pm and the post office is open from 8 am to 5 pm.

Sign up to vote on this title
UsefulNot useful