Key Findings - Survey in Washington CD 8
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Breitbart NewsKey Findings - Survey in Washington CD 8
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Breitbart NewsMEMORANDUM
TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: GLEN BOLGER
RE: KEY FINDINGS – SURVEY IN WASHINGTON CD 8
DATE: MAY 12, 2022
Methodology
NMB Research conducted a survey in the 8th Congressional District of Washington for Lead the
Way PAC. The survey was completed May 2-5, 2022, among four hundred likely primary voters
and has a margin of error of +4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases. Of the 400 interviews, 240 were
completed via cell phone.
Key Takeaway
Reagan Dunn has too many skeletons in his closet to defeat Schrier. Jesse Jensen is the only
candidate with a pathway to winning the general election against Schrier and turning
Washington CD 8 red again.
Key Findings
1. The political environment is already tilting against the Democrats.
Only 21% of voters in the district say the country is going in the right direction, while
70% say things are pretty seriously off on the wrong track, a clear indicator that a
change election is in the works.
Joe Biden’s job rating is underwater at 47% approve/51% disapprove in a district he
won by seven points. Intensity is strong against him, with 27% strongly approving and
43% strongly disapproving. Among Independents, Biden has a 29% approve/66%
disapprove rating, a terrible sign for Democrats.
Washington CD 8 Survey Key Findings
May 12, 2022
page two
2. The Democratic incumbent, Kim Schrier, has an underwhelming image.
Schrier is well-known, but has an underwhelming image. Her 83% name ID is solid, but
only 42% are favorable while 26% are unfavorable. Her image is maxed out with her
Democratic base, but she’s only at 33% fav/29% unfav with Independents.
3. Of the four Republican candidates running, only two, Jesse Jensen and Reagan
Dunn, are in double digits against Schrier.
The Washington primary system sends the top two finishers, regardless of party, to the
general election. As the incumbent, Schrier is well below 50%, polling 44%. An
incumbent to be that far below 50% portends a close race. Jensen and Dunn are both in
the low teens, while Matt Larkin, Scott Stephenson, and Independent Justin Greywolf do
not break out of low/mid-single digits.
Only 24% of Independents vote for Schrier, and undecided voters are unlikely to vote
for her. Biden’s approval rating among undecided voters is terrible, at just 11%
approve/87% disapprove.
4. In the November ballots, Jensen and Dunn are both just six points behind Schrier.
They both trail her 42%-48%, which means, despite being an incumbent with high name
ID, Schrier is in for a tight race.
5. If Dunn is held accountable for his record during the primary, he really drops off
against Schrier.
We tested likely hits against all three candidates, and Dunn comes out the worse for the
wear. In a hypothetical three-way ballot, Schrier polls 45%, Jensen gains to 30%, and
Dunn drops to 11%.
In two-way informed ballots, the Jensen-Schrier two-way tightens to 43%
Jensen/46% Schrier, while the Dunn-Schrier two-way opens up to 37% Dunn/49%
Schrier.
