B-9 Kenneth Christopher S.

Murillo 13, 2011 III-Neon History and Development of Statistics

June

Simple forms of statistics have been used since the beginning of civilization, when pictorial representations or other symbols were used to record numbers of people, animals, and inanimate objects on skins, slabs, or sticks of wood and the walls of caves. Before 3000 BC the Babylonians used small clay tablets to record tabulations of agricultural yields and of commodities bartered or sold. The Egyptians analyzed the population and material wealth of their country before beginning to build the pyramids in the 31st century bc. The biblical books of Numbers and 1 Chronicles are primarily statistical works, the former containing two separate censuses of the Israelites and the latter describing the material wealth of various Jewish tribes. Similar numerical records existed in China before 2000 BC. The ancient Greeks held censuses to be used as bases for taxation as early as 594 BC. The Roman Empire was the first government to gather extensive data about the population, area, and wealth of the territories that it controlled. During the Middle Ages in Europe few comprehensive censuses were made. The Carolingian kings Pepin the Short and Charlemagne ordered surveys of ecclesiastical holdings: Pepin in 758 and Charlemagne in 762. Following the Norman Conquest of England in 1066, William I, king of England, ordered a census to be taken; the information gathered in this census, conducted in 1086, was recorded in the DOMESDAY BOOK. Some scholars pinpoint the origin of statistics to 1662, with the publication of Natural and Political Observations upon the Bills of Mortality by John Graunt. Early applications of statistical thinking revolved around the needs of states to base policy on demographic and economic data, hence its stat- etymology. The scope of the discipline of statistics broadened in the early 19th century to include the collection and analysis of data in general. Today, statistics is widely employed in government, business, and the natural and social sciences. Because of its empirical roots and its focus on applications, statistics is usually considered to be a distinct mathematical science rather than a branch of mathematics. Its mathematical foundations were laid in the 17th century with the development of probability theory by Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat. Probability theory arose from the study of games of chance. The method of least squares was first described by Carl Friedrich Gauss around 1794. The use of modern computers has expedited large-scale statistical computation, and has also made possible new methods that are impractical to perform manually. G. Achenwall is usually credited with being the first to use the word " statistics," but statistics, in the modern sense of the word, did not really come into existence until the publication (1761) by J. P. Sussmilch, a Prussian clergyman, of a work entitled Die glittliche Ordnung in den Veranderungen des menschlichen Geschlechts aus der Geburt, dem Tode, and der Fortpflanzung desselben erwiesen. In this book a systematic attempt was made to make use of a class of facts which up to that time had been regarded as belonging to "political arithmetic," under which description

introduced the notion of the . Ivory (1825. and Thiele (1880. Lacroix (1816). Christiaan Huygens (1657) gave the earliest known scientific treatment of the subject. 1812). 1826). Sussmilch had arrived at a perception of the advantage of studying what Quetelet subsequently termed the "laws of large numbers. the "probable error" of a single observation was widely used and inspired early robust statistics (resistant to outliers). The method of least squares. Didion. Further proofs were given by Laplace (1810. Jakob Bernoulli's Ars Conjectandi (posthumous. was published independently by Adrien-Marie Legendre (1805). 1713) and Abraham de Moivre's Doctrine of Chances (1718) treated the subject as a branch of mathematics. Dedekind (1860).some of the most important problems of what modern writers term "vital statistics" had been studied. and K. and Giovanni Schiaparelli (1875). Gauss had used the method in his famous 1801 prediction of the location of the dwarf planet Ceres. The theory of errors may be traced back to Roger Cotes' Opera Miscellanea (posthumous. which can be dated to the correspondence of Pierre de Fermat and Blaise Pascal (1654). 1722). The mathematical methods of statistics emerged from probability theory. Helmert (1872). Littrow (1833). Bessel (1838). Boole. 1889). without much attempt at generalizing from them. Laurant (1873). Daniel Bernoulli (1778) introduced the principle of the maximum product of the probabilities of a system of concurrent errors. Robert Adrain (1808). and Carl Friedrich Gauss (1809). De Morgan (1864)." who had confined themselves to investigations into the facts regarding mortality and a few other similar subjects. Adolphe Quetelet (17961874)." He combined the method of "descriptive statistics" with that of the "political arithmeticians. continuous errors are discussed and a probability curve is given. Herschel (1850). 1856). Hagen (1837). the work of Kolmogorov has been instrumental in formulating the fundamental model of Probability Theory. Gauss (1823). Glaisher (1872). Other contributors were Ellis (1844). which is used throughout statistics. Pearson. De Morgan. and that there are certain assignable limits within which all errors may be supposed to fall. another important founder of statistics. Edgeworth. Liagre. but one which led to unmanageable equations. Peters's (1856) formula for r.[1] In the modern era. He represented the law of probability of errors by a curve. Pierre-Simon Laplace (1774) made the first attempt to deduce a rule for the combination of observations from the principles of the theory of probabilities. Crofton (1870). He deduced a formula for the mean of three observations. Donkin (1844. In the nineteenth century authors on statistical theory included Laplace. but a memoir prepared by Thomas Simpson in 1755 (printed 1756) first applied the theory to the discussion of errors of observation. especially in England. The reprint (1757) of this memoir lays down the axioms that positive and negative errors are equally probable. 1774). S. which was used to minimize errors in data measurement. He also gave (1781) a formula for the law of facility of error (a term due to Joseph Louis Lagrange.

Source: http://www. or suicide rates. summarizing. the development of statistics in Europe was strongly motivated by the need to make sense of the large amount of data collected by population surveys in the emerging nation states. Graunt E. marriage rates. Peirce invented an optimal design for experiments on gravity. Halley Person Sir W. As summarised in Table 1. marriages. statistics is a reliable means of describing accurately the values of economic. Peirce (1839--1914) formulated frequentist theories of estimation and hypothesis-testing in (1877--1878) and (1883). Year Event 153 First weekly data on deaths in London 2 153 Start of data collection on baptisms. controlled randomized experiments with a repeated measures design. Much data can be approximated accurately by certain probability distributions. but is chiefly a process of interpreting the information. the mathematical foundations for statistics advanced significantly due to breakthroughs in probability theory inspired by games of chance (gambling). and making inferences about the state of complex systems. Probability can be used to test the reliability of statistical inferences and to indicate the kind and amount of data required for a particular problem.com/doc/35466489/History-and-Development-of-Statistics Statistics is concerned with exploring."average man" (l'homme moyen) as a means of understanding complex social phenomena such as crime rates. Charles S. refer to Johnson and Kotz (1998). Petty . in which he introduced "confidence". At the same time. The development of the theory of PROBABILITY increased the scope of statistical applications. political. and deaths 9 in France 160 Beginning of parish registry in Sweden 8 166 First published demographic study based on bills of 2 mortality 169 J.1: Summary of some key events in the development of statistics in Europe. Peirce also introduced blinded. The work of the statistician is no longer confined to gathering and tabulating data. and the results of probability distributions can be used in analyzing statistical data.1. At present.scribd. and physical data and serves as a tool to correlate and analyze such data. For more historical details. social. Table 1. biological. psychological. For more information about the history of statistics refer to the books by Johnson and Kotz (1998) and Kotz and Johnson (1993).

of Theoria Motus Corporum Coelestium 9 181 Publ.N. of The probable error of a mean 8 191 Publ. Huygens A. Pearson F. of The Doctrine of Chances 4 173 Start of demographic data collection in Norway 5 J.S. Yule A. of Ars Conjectandi 3 171 Publ. Bayes 3 of Chances 180 Publ. Gauss P. Laplace 190 Publ. Galton K. of An introduction to the theory of statistics 0 193 Publ. De Moivre 176 Publ. of Libellus de Ratiocinus in Ludo Aleae 4 171 Publ.F. of Natural Inheritance 9 190 0 Development of the test F. Bernoulli C. Pearson ``Student'' G. Kolmogorov C.3 Publ. K. Galton et al.U. of An estimate of the degrees of mortality of mankind drawn from curious tables of the births and funerals at the city of Breslaw with an attempt to ascertain the price of annuities upon lives 171 Publ. of Théorie analytique des probabilités 2 183 Establishment of the Statistical Society of London 4 183 Establishment of the American Statistical Association 9 (Boston) 188 Publ. of the first issue of Biometrika 1 190 Development of Principal Component Analysis 3 190 Publ. of On the empirical determination of a distribution 3 . of An essay towards solving a problem in the Doctrine Rev.

html B.W.A. of Generalized linear models 2 J. Hotelling D.M. Cox 197 Publ. of Regression models and life tables 2 R.A. Nelder and R. Efron . of The Design of Experiments 5 193 Publ. Fisher H.no/People/ngbnk/kurs/notes/node4.R. Wedderburn 197 Publ.193 Publ. of Bootstrap methods: another look at the jackknife 9 Source: http://www.uib. of Relations between two sets of variables 6 197 Publ.