Research

April 28, 2008

Results inline with expectations
HDFC Bank’s reported net profit of Rs4.7bn inline with our expectation. However NII growth was much better than what we expected. The NII grew 55.7% yoy to Rs 16.4bn driven by stronger NIM’s. The operating profit grew by 42.3% yoy to Rs10.9bn driven by higher other income which compensated for higher Opex. However net profit grew by only 37.1%, as the bank’s made a higher provisioning of Rs4.7bn in the quarter as compared to Rs2.7bn in the corresponding quarter last year which was also compensated by lower tax rate of 24.4% We continue to like robust business model of HDFC Bank and robust quality of its earnings as well as assets. At the current valuations of 19.5x its FY2010E EPS and 3.3x FY2010E P/ABV, the stock seems quite attractive. We retain BUY rating on the stock with a price target of Rs1,700.

BUY
Price Rs1, 498 Sensex Target Price Rs1, 700 17,126

Price Performance
(%) Absolute Rel. to Sensex
Source: Capitaline

1M

3M

6M 12M

4 (2)

(1) (0)

(3) 9

45 21

NII grows 55.7%yoy led by NIM’s expansion
HDFC Bank’s NII (net of amortisation expenses) grew by 55.7% yoy to Rs16.4bn driven by 35.4% yoy growth in core customer assets to Rs704bn and NIM expansion of 30bps on yoy basis and 42bps sequentially. NII reports strong growth

Stock Details
Sector Reuters Bloomberg Equity Capital (Rs mn) Face Value No. of shares (mn) 52 Week H/L Market Cap Banks HDBK.BO HDFCB@IN 3544 10 354 1825/976 Rs531bn/USD13.2bn 843923 29.5mn

Q4FY08 Reported NII Add: Amortisation exp Adjusted NII 16,421 1,010 17,431

Q4FY07 10,545 632 11,177

Q3FY08 14,376 719 15,095

% yoy chg 55.7 56.0

% qoq chg 14.2 15.5

Higher yield on advances and investments drive margins
The NIM’s expanded by 30bps yoy and 42bps qoq driven by higher yield on advances and investments. The yield on advances grew by 101bpsyoy to whereas yield on investment grew by 57bps yoy. NIM analysis
(%) Q4FY08 11.9 7.7 8.9 4.0 5.0 4.4 Q4FY07 10.9 7.1 8.5 3.9 4.7 4.5 Q3FY08 11.1 7.5 8.6 4.1 4.5 4.3 Change in bps yoy 101.0 56.8 41.5 11.5 30.0 -10.0 qoq 78.4 19.3 31.4 -10.4 41.8 10.0

Daily Avg Volume (No of shares) Daily Avg Turnover (US$)

Shareholding Pattern (%)
(31 st Mar.’08) Promoters FII Institutions Private Corp. Public

Yield on advances* Yield on investments* 23.3 50.3 6.2 8.1 12.1 Yield on assets* Cost of funds* NIM* Core NIM (reported)

Source: Company, Emkay Research * Calculated on basis of average quarterly balances

Business growth remains healthy…..
The bank registered a 42.5%yoy growth in the overall business. The advances have grown by 35.1% yoy to Rs634.2 bn, whereas deposits grew by 47.5%yoy. The C/D ratio fall to 63% in the quarter from 69% in the same quarter last year as the bank seems to have sold down some loans to reduce priority sector lending requirement for FY09. Balance sheet expansion
Kashyap Jhaveri kashyap.jhaveri@emkayshare.com +91 22 6612 1249 Pradeep Agrawal pradeep.agrawal@emkayshare.com +91 22 6612 1340 Rs bn Advances Deposits C/D ratio Q4FY08 634 1008 63% Q4FY07 469 683 69% Q3FY08 714 994 72% % yoy chg 35.1 47.5 % qoq chg -11.2 1.4

Source: Company, Emkay Research

Emkay Research

28 April 2008

Result Update 1

Emkay

HDFC Bank

5 Change in bps yoy qoq -31 -292 137 80 -182 -116 -325 338 95 83 47 13 -81 141 62 30 CASA deposits remain stable The CASA ratio has remained fairly stable on sequential basis as it improved by 360bps qoq.6bn respectively.8 21.9 28.8 19.8 8. Emkay Research 96. employee expenses as well as other opex grew by ~60%yoy to Rs3.0 195.500 25.0 287.0bn.500 31.508 Q4FY07 4.8 12.000 85.596 Q3FY08 5. business banking loans and auto loans.6 Fee income growth slows down The other income has grown by 39.8 -97.5 549.9 Proportion (%) 24.5 33.315 5.0 394. Credit cards business has also seen significant expansion.4 57. The increase in expenses has been mainly driven by branch expansion.7 261.9 249.0 3.508 -15 5.4 3.5bn and Rs7.8 505. 2-wheeler loans continued to decline as the bank has stayed away from the segment due to increasing instances of delinquencies.3 8.474 1.6 -101. Emkay Research Q4FY08 5.500 59.7 198.8 -25.2% yoy (5% sequentially) to Rs11. the operating expenses have grown by 61.1 54.6 Opex continues to remain high During the quarter.5 45.3% yoy to Rs5.9 % yoy chg 47. Retail loan portfolio mix Rs mn Auto Loans Personal Loans CVs Loan Against Securities 2-Wheelers Business Banking Credit Cards Others Total Source: Company.5bn driven mainly by treasury profits (treasury loss of Rs650mn last year).5 Q4FY07 683.500 13.1 3.5 59.2 39.4 % qoq chg 1. Deposit mix Rs bn Total Deposits Savings % of total Current % of total Total CASA % of total Source: Company. The fee income (CEB+derivatives/forex gains) grew by a bit slower 20% (34% for M9FY08) Fee income Rs mn Fee income Other Total Source: Company.1 256.5 26.1 24.6 25.8 % qoq chg 0.0 57.1 0.000 66.1 29. Emkay Research 28 April 2008 2 .0 64.6 28.596 -652 4.4 4.9 15.474 % yoy chg 19.500 15. On yoy basis. Both.000 % yoy change 37.0 25.H D F C BA N K Result Update Growth in retail assets continues to remain selective The growth in the retail assets was led by personal loans.4 38. Emkay Research Q4FY08 1.0 6.6 50.1 51.007.4 16. the CASA mix has gone down primarily because in Q4FY08 the bank had significantly decelerated its balance sheet growth.7 Q3FY08 993.500 393.

The bank has raised fresh equity capital of Rs37.8 bn during the current year via preferential allotment to its promoter and ADS. Emkay Research Result Update Q4FY07 684 1. In addition the bank made a provision of Rs1.6% and tier I CAR at 10.700. the stock seems quite attractive.3x FY2010E P/ABV. Comfortable capital adequacy The bank had Capital adequacy of 13. the bank continues to enjoy robust asset quality as the GNPA as well as NNPA remained 1.5 % respectively.H D F C BA N K Network Q4FY08 Branches ATM Source: Company. We retain BUY rating on the stock with a 12m price target of Rs1.5x its FY2010E EPS and 3. However.977 Provisioning higher however asset quality remains robust The provisioning requirement during the quarter has gone up substantially driven by Non Performing Assets and standard asset provisioning of Rs2. At the current valuations of 19.9bn. broadly inline with last year.906 761 1.3% and 0.7bn during the quarter for legal and other contingent liabilities.605 Q3FY08 754 1. Valuations and view We continue to like robust business model of HDFC Bank and robust quality of its earnings as well as assets.3 % at the end of Q4FY08. Emkay Research 28 April 2008 3 .

This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal.436 Q3FY08 14.162 15.7 54.252 7.2 61.398 4. We and our affiliates.902 FY07 34. and to observe.685 15. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Emkay Share & Stock Brokers Ltd'sprior written consent.5 P/ABV (x) 8.3 74.8 43.9 -16.2 -1. although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of.912 22. The recipient of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice.7 9.794 -632 49.5 59.1 % qoq chg 14.289 75.493 5.139 122. Tel no.2 42.7 Valuation table Y/E March 31 FY2007 FY2008E FY2009E FY2010E Net income 52. 66121212.110 37.294 Result Update % yoy chg 55.847 24.2 35. officers.432 2.110 16. Worli.8 18.911 28.8 51.1 -28.H D F C BA N K Quarterly results FY08 Net interest income Other Income Fee income Other Net Income Operating Expenses Operating Profit Provisions & Contingencies Loan loss provision Profit before tax Provision for Taxes Net Profit 52. The same persons may have acted upon the information contained here. nor any person connected with it. No person associated with Emkay Share & Stock Brokers Ltd is obligated to call or initiate contact with you for the purposes of el aborating or following up on the information contained in this document.0 4.7 374.6 76.258 75. No part of this document may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in the United Kingdom. including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may.6 30.944 4. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material. and we are not soliciting any action based upon it.027 10.1 19. Neither Emkay Share & Stoc k Brokers Ltd.6 25. .806 6.387 4.3 -3.414 % yoy chg 50.7 50.501 6.7 ABV (Rs) 187.654 14.543 2. Paragon Center.3 50.045 Net profit 11.139 4. compliance. Prospective investor s and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.2 456.1 0.671 1. of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compens ation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such company(ies)or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company(ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions.2 25.8 39.3 Note: numbers are not adjusted for Centurion Bank of Punjab numbers DISCLAIMER: This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person.8 -97.544 3. and employees world wide.979 1.1 109.3 315.196 EPS (Rs) 35.650 2.5 -2.639 9.0 2.839 7.973 11. Fax: 66121299 Emkay Research 28 April 2008 4 .2 -19.7 4. accepts any liability arising from the use of this document.231 3.545 3.0 16.4 1.8 39..315 21.7 39.508 -15 21. it is believed to be rel iable.1 3.789 5.664 4. (a) from time to time.887 4. such restrictions.1 -462. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. and buy or sell the securities thereof.3 Q4FY08 16.4 1.1 9. and it should not be relied upon.646 21.2 38.711 Q4FY07 10.5 5.596 -652 14.5 17.2 37. there may be regulatory. Ground Floor. C-6 Pandurang Budhkar Marg.3 19.905 15.9 60.848 6. including the United States.914 11.4 1.456 37.236 1.832 20.165 10.622 99.208 25.501 10.930 6.279 22. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient.489 6. The manner of circulation and distribution of this document may be restricted by law or regulation in certain countries. directors. In so far as this report includes current or historical information.419 15.7 46.421 5.376 6.525 4.6 -101.651 2. have long or short positions in. The material is based upon information that we consider reliable.5 RoE (%) 19. or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.474 1. Emkay Share and Stock Brokers Ltd.0 3. Mumbai – 400 013.3 PE (x) 48. but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete.4 RoA (%) 1.