Q+A Kantar Public Tauranga Poll

31 May to 8 June 2022

Attention: Q+A, TVNZ

Contact: (04) 913-3000

Release date: Sunday 12 June 2022

Level One
46 Sale Street, Auckland CBD
PO Box 33690 Takapuna
Auckland 0740
Ph: (09) 919-9200

Level 9, Legal House

101 Lambton Quay
PO Box 3622, Wellington 6011
Ph: (04) 913-3000

www.kantarpublic.com/nz
Contents
Contents ........................................................................................................................................................................... 2

Methodology summary .................................................................................................................................................... 3

Question order and wording............................................................................................................................................. 4

Candidate support – Tauranga electorate ......................................................................................................................... 5

Reappointment of Tauranga Commissioners .................................................................................................................... 6

Methodology summary
CLIENT: Q+A, Television New Zealand.

RELEASED: Sunday 12 June 2022

POLL CONDUCTED: Interviewing took place from Tuesday 31 May to Wednesday 8 June 2022.

MEDIAN FIELDWORK DAY: Friday 3 June (50% of sample size target was reached on this day).

TARGET POPULATION: Eligible Tauranga electorate voters. Respondents were screened to a) check they
live in the Tauranga electorate, and b) check they are on the general electoral roll.

INTERVIEW METHOD: Face-to-face and online. Conducted by CAPI (Computer Assisted Personal
Interviewing) and CAWI (Computer Assisted Web Interviewing).

SAMPLE SELECTION: Face-to-face: Potential respondents were recruited on-street in key locations across
the electorate. Quotas (or interviewing targets) were set across both the face-to-
face and online samples to ensure we surveyed a locally representative sample of
people aged 18 years or over from the electorate. Only those eligible to vote in the
Tauranga electorate are included in the final sample.
Online: Interviews were collected through online panels. All respondents were aged
18 or over. The panels used comply with the ESOMAR guidelines for online research.
SAMPLE SIZE: n = 500 eligible voters, including n=220 polled face-to-face and n=280 polled online.

SAMPLING ERROR: The maximum sampling error is approximately ±4.4%-points at the 95% confidence
level. This is the sampling error for a result around 50%. Results higher and lower
than 50% have a smaller sampling error. For example, results around 10% and 5%
have sampling errors of approximately ±2.6%-points and ±1.9%-points, respectively,
at the 95% confidence level. These sampling errors assume a simple random sample
of 500 eligible voters.

It should be noted that any demographic sub-group analysis (e.g., by age or gender)
will be based on a smaller set of interviews and so will have a wider sampling error.

WEIGHTING: The data have been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age,
gender and ethnic identification in the Tauranga electorate.

REPORTED FIGURES: Reported bases are unweighted. For Candidate Support, percentages have been
rounded up or down to whole numbers, except those less than 1%, which are
reported to 1 decimal place.

Note: Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the data on candidate
support. The results are a snapshot in time, and not a prediction.
This poll was conducted in accordance with the New Zealand Political Polling Code. Publication or reproduction
of the results must be acknowledged as the “Q+A Kantar Public Tauranga Poll”.
Question order and wording

Resident in the electorate

Do you live in the Tauranga electorate shown on the map?

Voting eligibility
“If a general election was held today, would you be eligible to vote?”

NOTE: Those not eligible to vote are excluded from the total sample size for this poll.

General electoral roll

Please can you confirm, are you on the general electoral roll or are you registered to vote on the Māori electoral roll? The
Māori electorate is known as Waiariki.

Candidate vote
“A by-election is being held on the 18th of June for the Tauranga electorate.

Which candidate, if any, will you vote for as your local MP in the by-election??”

IF DON’T KNOW

“Which candidate, if any, would you be most likely to vote for?”

NOTE: Those who said don’t know, refused to answer, or that they would not vote in the by election have been excluded
from the results on candidate support.
Candidate support – Tauranga electorate
“A by-election is being held on the 18th of June for the Tauranga electorate.

Which candidate, if any, will you vote for as your local MP in the by-election?”1

IF DON’T KNOW

“Which candidate, if any, would you most likely vote for?”

31 May – 8 June 2022

Don’t know 13%
Refused 4%
Do not plan to vote 6%
TOTAL 24%
Base (n=) 500
Based on eligible Auckland Central Electorate voters.

31 May – 8 June 2022

National Party candidate - Sam Uffindell 45%

Labour Party candidate - Jan Tinetti 35%
ACT New Zealand candidate - Cameron Luxton 7%
NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party candidate - Sue Grey 3%

New Nation Party candidate - Andrew Hollis 3%

Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party candidate - Christopher Coker 2%

ONE Party candidate - Allan Cawood 1%
New Conservative candidate - Helen Houghton 1%

Independent candidate - Yvette Lamare 0.9%

Independent candidate - Peter Wakeman 0.5%

Independent candidate - Tony Corbett 0.3%
Independent candidate - Gordon Dickson -
TOTAL 100%*
Base (n=) 395
Based on probed candidate supporters, excluding those who say they would not vote, don’t know who they will vote for or refused to
say. *Percentages do not add to total due to rounding.

Those groups of eligible voters who are more likely than average (47%) to vote for Sam Uffindell as their candidate
include:
• National party supporters (86%)
• Men aged 55+ (68%).

Those groups of eligible voters who are more likely than average (35%) to vote for Jan Tinetti as their candidate include:
• Labour party supporters (95%)
• Those with a household income of up to $30,000 (49%)
• Women (42%).

1 The order in which the list of parties and candidates was shown to each respondent was rotated across the sample.
Reappointment of Tauranga Commissioners
“In November 2020, an independent review identified significant governance issues at Tauranga City Council.
The Local Government Minister then sacked the Council and installed four commissioners in their place. In
April 2022, the Local Government Minister announced that the four commissioners are being reappointed, and
will stay in place until July 2024 when fresh elections will be held for the Council.

Do you support or oppose2 the decision to reappoint the Commissioners?”

Total eligible New Zealand voters

31 May – 8 June 2022

Support 41%
Oppose 34%
Don’t know / Refused 25%
Total 100%
Base (n=) 500
Based on eligible New Zealand voters.

A plurality of eligible voters (41%) support the reappointment of the Commissioners to Tauranga City Council.
This compares to 34% of voters who oppose the reappointment. A high proportion do not feel able to express
an opinion (25%), indicating a potential lack of engagement with local politics and the issue.

Those groups of eligible voters who are more likely than average (41%) to support the reappointment of the
Commissioners include:
• Labour party supporters (51%).

Those groups of eligible voters who are more likely than average (34%) to oppose the reappointment of the
Commissioners include:
• Men aged 55+ (50%)
• Women aged 55+ (47%)
• National party supporters (45%).

Those groups of eligible voters who are more likely not to express an opinion either way (25%) include:
• Women aged 18-34 (51%)
• Men aged 18-34+ (41%).

2The order in which the answer codes were shown was reversed, so 50% of respondents saw “support or oppose” and 50%
of respondents saw “oppose or support.”

1 NEWS Kantar Public Poll - Page 6

- ‹#›