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The Forest Fire Detection In Mexico and Central America By Using Satellite Data

PaperNumber: Control #: 654 Ángel R. Terán-Cuevas1, 3 1 Subgerencia de Monitoreo Atmosférico Ambiental, Servicio Meteorológico NacionalCONAGUA, Av. Observatorio N° 192 Col. Observatorio Del. Miguel Hidalgo C.P. 11860 México, D.F Eugenia M. Gutierrez-Castillo1, 2, 3 2 Laboratorio de Monitoreo y Analisis Ambiental, Centro Interdisciplinario de Investigaciones y Estudios sobre Medio Ambiente y Desarrollo- IPN, Calle 30 de Junio de 1520, Barrio la Laguna Ticomán C.P. 07340, México, D.F. Valentina Davydova-Belitskaya3 Gerencia de Meteorología, Servicio Meteorológico Nacional-CONAGUA, Av. Observatorio N° 192 Col. Observatorio Del. Miguel Hidalgo C.P. 11860 México, D.F
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ABSTRACT
The rainfall spatial-temporal pattern has important effects on various environmental variables and is an important component in the hydrologic cycle because of its relationship to issues such as flooding and water quality. Changes in precipitation regime directly affect water resources management, agriculture, hydrology and urban water supply. In order to understand the spatial and temporal Mexico¶s rainfall properties, it was applied a modern approach to analyze a long term rainfall database from Mexico. The data set spans from 1950-2008 integrated from interpolated grids of daily records stored in the official database of the National Weather Service, SMN, CLICOM (CLImatologyCOMputarized) coupled with the use of Geographic Information System (GIS). After a series of procedures finalized to the estimation of missing records and to the verification of data consistency, based on the statistical analysis from the rainfall historical data, we calculate the annual and monthly mean, the frequency probability of occurrence of extreme storms of short and long duration, and positive or negative precipitation tendencies in the different areas of the country. The use of the Geographic Information Systems, made possible to identify sceneries with the behavior of rain in a monthly, seasonal and annual form in Mexico as tendencies, extreme maximums, return period and its comparison with what is occurring now and what is going to occur in 2009.

D¶Odorico and Fagherazzi 2003. GIS. Burton and Bathurst 1998. Therefore. The notable developments in the areas of database technology. The outcome may provide systematic information for evaluating slope failure mechanisms. The rapid infiltration of rainfall. 2003). and is a responsible factor for mass movements.7 Therefore different approaches and statistical models. duration. Lan et al. mechanical and hydraulic characteristics during a rainfall process. and are magnified because the high vulnerability of different populations which are derived from a variety of factors. it is importante to have information with high spatial resolution and integrate all the possible variables such as permitted into the geographic information systems. 2002. Montgomery and Dietrich 1994. frequency analysis and probability.INTRODUCTION Currently in the world. it is very important to apply tools such as Geographic Information System since allow understanding the slope stability behavior during the rainfall process. the inadequate management of watersheds and low operating systems early warning. 2002. timing. This could be helpful in predicting the temporal and spatial characteristics of landslide hazards and how these functions might change in response to rainfall. rainfall intensity-duration thresholds. Wilkinson et al. 1991. it is somewhat imprecise and often misleading to use single rainfall factor for landslide hazard analysis and forecasting (Franks 1997). the destructive effects of extreme rainfall events have caused disasters due severe floods and landslides. and rates of movement (Iverson 2000). and warning system establishment and operation (Lan 2005). have been presented in the literature to evaluate the stability of slopes under rainfall. it is extremely important to . and the frequency of extreme events that often cause flash flooding. 1999. Among the multiple factors involved in natural disasters. Wu and Sidle 1995. physical. causing soil saturation is generally believed to be the mechanism by which most shallow landslides are triggered during rainfall storms (Baum and Reid 1995. Beside. effective risk assessment. the lack of measures which lead to a safer location of human settlements. and rainfall types that vary with time. Therefore. The identification and assessment of extreme rainfall event is a complex process outstanding includes the measurement of several factors such as the intensity. modeling jointly with networking information. One of the problems is the lack of meteorological weather measurements over the mountainous zones which avoid the rainfall monitoring to develop different methods to estimate the rainfall intensity in a certain region.Some researches addressed with the maximum rainfall threshold values have been adopted for warning systems and to establish alarm networks in some endangered areas. Montgomery and Dietrich 1997. and information related to land surface susceptibility can provide valuable inputs on inundations/damage analysis due by flash flooding in remote and inaccessible areas. Among others such as the inadequate preventive and mitigation measures at the level of regions or vulnerable areas. and its hydrological and physical process influence on the location. Guimarães et al. to understand the behave of the rainfall distribution around one area. Guzzetti et al. So. historical landslides triggered and inundation disasters due a combination of intense rainfall and lack of sewer capacity at the same time as high flows in rivers have directly affected human¶s lives. 2003). GIS datasets. The slopes composed of either soil and/or rock respond differently as a function of their geological. producing high social impacts by leaving a trail of deaths and huge economic losses in addition to the influence on community activities and adverse effects on the environment. and explain the relationship between rainfall and slope failures (Carrara et al. 1999.

climate is tropical and semidesert. as in Sinaloa. Therefore. climate is tropical and continuously humid. such as Baja California. and stored in the GIS through geo-referenced database known as geodatabases. which is essential elements in hydrological studies and engineering. On the south of the central high plateau. we attempt to explain and provide well understood estimates to help the implementation of risk mitigation measures that the authorities may determine. Finally. and this make it to have a great variety of climates. On the northern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico. On the southern coasts of the Pacific Ocean. monthly and annually data are basic in the management processes that are under pressure from increasing demand due to both population growth and economic development of different regions. the integration of thematic information. it was established as an essential tool for any research which aims to determine the risk posed by phenomena natural hazards such as those caused by extreme rainfall maximum (Terán and Ibarra. . On the southern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico. management systems of storms. raining only between Tabasco and Chiapas. as in Mexico City. To the north of the central plateau. Mexico is clearly divided into two areas by the tropic of Cancer. To the farthest northeast. supplementary irrigation requirements and engineering studies related to management of water reservoirs. there is a humid steppe during the summer with subtropical and desert climates. such as Sonora. climate is humid during the winter. such as river and coastal flooding by using a geo-based rainfall data. STUDY AREA Mexico is located in a subtropical and temperate region of North America. To the north of this parallel is the template area and to the south is the tropical zone. climate is subtropical in steppes. climate is tropical and humid. such as Tamaulipas. such is the case of hydrological simulations. such as north of Chiapas and Tabasco. The results represent an effort to ensure an understanding by the authorities concerned about the origin and behavior of the effects of extreme hydrometeorological phenomena. the climate is humid with moderate temperatures. varying according the altitude and geographic location. water storage and analysis (Herath and Ratnayakeb.14 mm. humid during the summer.10 This research was focused on the rainfall analysis over México applying a GIS data base from 1950 until 2008. Characteristics of rain as daily. The driest month throughout the country is March with 17. such as Chihuahua. in determining the potential impact on flooding associated with storm events of different frequencies. A climatology analysis was done to estimate the monthly and annual rainfall. The main purpose of this paper was estimating temporally and spatially-distributed rainfall properties with a more accuracy as possible and evaluating the applicability on the generation of a map involving potential areas of flash flooding risk.incorporate the study of hydrometeorological variables as the behavior of the rainfall. from tropical to desert. and it was added a tendency analysis merging aperiod return of 59 years. On the northern coasts of the Gulf of California. 2005). 2004).

The dry tropic is located on the slopes of Sierra Madre Occiental and Oriental. presenting an obstacle to rain clouds. Baja California with 60. therefore the dry tropic is the vastest region of extreme warm climates in Mexico. The semi-desert to the north of the high plateau barely reaches an average 245 mm of rain per year.0°C. Yucatan Peninsula and Chiapas. and the driest area of Mexico is located at Mexicali. certain regions of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.62 mm per year. most notable is the state of Chihuahua with the lowest temperatures in the country during the winter. Figura 1. The most humid season is between May and October. the high basins of Balsas and Papaloapan rivers.874 mm per year (Figure 1). Localization of Mexico in North America. The highest temperatures was registered in Delta Mexicali. Baja Californiathe with 57°C. down to -18. The most humid is located at Tapachula. . Chiapas with 3. The scarcity of rain is related to the mountains of the Mexican high plateau.In Mexico there are places with great climate variations throughout the year. which almost the 80% of the total accumulated rainfall in a year.

the correlation factor decreases. After this.63 r = 0.After this.65 TOTAL coefficient= 0. The final result proccess can be seen of Figure 11.65 Spring March 0. The wettest months showed the factor was 0. while the coefficient in the driest months of 0.67 (August-October). while for files in the rainy season the correlation factor increase. there was a sufficient evidence of daily rainfall records for the past 59 years in a geographic information system. Interpolation provided a separation between node and node in the mesh of 0. . The results shows the areas were the rainfal is increasing or decresing. and the minimum amount of records occurred in 1950 with 603 records.655 Table 1.67 Autumn Sep 0. these files were converted to a GIS format to create a new database called MALLA-SIG. Winter Jan 0. and 21.67 Nov 0. and are those that have registered and available to the general public. The results show that in dry periods.68 Oct 0.65 r = 0. the tendency analisys was overlapped with the period return map with 59 years of analisys.170 files were generated with these characteristics.59 May 0.67 r = 0. Correlation coefficients calculated for the interpolated mesh and daily records of rainfall. Then.633 Jul 0. MALLA-SIG (Figure 2).653 Apr 0. The data had to be interpolated to remove the inconsistency in time and space on the country (Figure 4).633 was (from February to April).64 Summer Jun 0. and shape mesh 320 columns by 200 lines. The rainfall analysis was geared to calculate a monthly.70 Ago 0. The used rainfall records from the formal basis of SMN includes data from 1950 to 2008. andannual climatology to know the normal conditions for rainfall in Mexico. The correlation of the data was carried out between the actual observed records and interpolated mesh 10% of the total population of. Finally.1 ° x 0. The evaluation results are shown in Table 1. seasonal. it was carried out the estimation of the period return for raintogether with a tendency analysis by using the annual accumulated rainfall.1 °. The database was validated to know the degree of reliability. which allowed to us to to make the climatology analisis for Mexico. and applying the first and second derivate (Figures 5).66 r = 0.69 Feb 0. and the highest occurred in 1982 with 3858 records.66 Dic 0.METHODOLOGY The methodology was based on a historical analysis of rainfall using GIS on an interpolated georeferenced database. Figure 3 shows the amount of annual highs records.

Figure 3. Maximum and minimum annual rainfall records from 1950 to 2007. . Construction of MALLA ± SIG (1950-2008).Figure 2.

. A daily rainfall recorded data over Mexicoshowing areas without (indicated by circles). Tendency analysis description by applying the first and second derivate. Figure 5.Figure 4.

The obtained climatology for every month is showed on Figure 7. Baja California with 60.62 mm. Rainfall climatology for the las 59 years in Mexico. This impplies the annual and monthly rainfall distribution . For the annual climatology for last 59 years for Mexico gave 755.RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS The main results was addresed to obtain a characterization of the rainfall behave around the country. The result gave two spectrals signs.The area with the lowest accumulated rainfall is in Mexicali. and one is observed during december to may which is the dryiest season of the year since represents only 12% of the total acumulated rainfal in a year (Figure 9).57 mm (Figure 6). and the most humid is located in the municipality of Tapachula.874 mm. which allowed the make a spectral analysis of the 12 months (Figure 8). and the other from june to november which is the most humidand represents 78% of the total accumulated rainfal in a year (Figure 10). . Figure 6. Chiapas with an accumulated rainfall of 3.

april 2004. this map shows the maximum values around the full country.Figure 7. So. and Tabasco and Chiapas in october of 2007. and shows the most extreme rainfall values ocurred during the history of the last 59 years (Figure 11). Coahuila. This map shows the highest acumulated rainfall ocurred in a day during the analyzed long term rainfall data set(1950-2008). Chiapas. The last disasters ocurred in Mexico registered a daily acumulated rainfall with a period return over 55 years. . Climatology obtained for each month in Mexico Another results was a 59 years period return map. Figure 10. Maximum extreme values of daily acumulated rainfall in a long term data set (19502008). october 2005.

Mark Ruminski from the Satellite Analysys Branch at NOAA-NESDIS. winter. The highest extreme rainfall acumulated values ocurred during the summer since includes 60% of the territory(Figure 11). and for the autumn was 22% of the territory(Figure 14). This implies to considere the areas with highest extreme rainfall values ocurred in Mexico with a positive tendency. summer and autumn. and the ones with a negative tendency. The results generate 4 maps correspondig for each season. For the winter extreme rainfall values ocuppied 12% of the territory(Figure 13). and overlay the tendency. Francisco García from thePanamerican Institute of Geography and History. and it show how increase or decrease the rainfall around the country. and the minimum ocurred during wintersince corresponds only 6% of the territory(Figure 12). spring.Martin . USA. it was necessary to classify the extrema acumulated rainfall values by season.Santiago Borrero.Another result was the calculation of the rainfall tendencies. Therefore. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial and/or technical support ofDavidaStreett.

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