19
Braja M. Das* ^{1} and Nagaratnam Sivakugan ^{2}
Settlements of shallow foundations on granular soil — an overview
ABSTRACT: The main objective of this paper is to review the cur rent stateoftheart for predicting settlements of shallow foundations in granular soils. The traditional settlement prediction methods are critically reviewed. The Settlement ’94 predic tion session held in Texas clearly showed the deficiencies in the present settlement prediction methods, which generally over estimate the settlements and underestimate the allowable pressures, making the foundation designs very conservative. Some recent developments, including two deterministic methods and a probabilistic approach, are discussed as they have significant potential to improve the current stateoftheart. Several empirical correlations relating the modulus of elasticity of soil and penetration resistances and standard penetration and cone penetration tests are summarized.
KEYWORDS: Shallow foundations, granular soils, settlements, empirical correlations, Settlement ’94
1. INTRODUCTION
Shallow foundations are generally designed to satisfy bearing capacity and settlement criteria. The bearing capacity crite rion stipulates that there is adequate safety against bearing capacity failure beneath the foundation, and a factor of safety of three is generally used on the computed ultimate bearing capacity. Settlement criterion is to ensure that the settlement is within tolerable limits. It is commonly believed that the settlement criterion is more critical than the bearing capacity one in the designs of shallow foundations, especially for foundation width greater than 1.5 m, which is often the case. By limiting the total set tlements, differential settlements and any subsequent dis tresses to the structure are limited. Generally the settlements of shallow foundations such as pad or strip footings are lim ited to 25 mm (Terzaghi et al. 1996). Douglas (1986) reported the existence of more than 40 different methods for estimating settlements in granular soils. All these methods recognize that the applied pressure, soil stiffness and the foundation width are the three most impor tant variables affecting the settlements in granular soils. Soil stiffness is often quantified indirectly through penetration
*Corresponding Author
1 Geotechnical Engineer, Henderson, Nevada 89044 USA, email: brajam das@gmail.com
2 Associate Professor and Head of Civil and Environmental Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, AUSTRALIA, siva.sivakugan@jcu.edu.au
resistance such as blow count from standard penetration test or tip resistance from cone penetration test. The objective of this paper is to present the current stateoftheart for com puting settlements of shallow foundations on granular soils, discuss some of the popular methods and review the empiri cal correlations for estimating the soil stiffness.
2. CURRENT STATEOFTHEART
The most popular methods for settlement predictions, dis cussed commonly in text books, are the ones proposed by Terzaghi and Peck (1948), Schmertmann (1970), Schmertmann et al. (1978) and Burland and Burbidge (1985). Meyerhof (1956) and Peck and Bazaraa (1969) meth ods are similar to the one proposed by Terzaghi and Peck (1948). Two of the more recent methods are after Berardi and Lancellotta (1991) and Mayne and Poulos (1999). Sivakugan and Johnson (2004) proposed a probabilistic approach quan tifying the uncertainties associated with the settlement pre diction methods. Computed and measured settlements of fullscale foot ings have been compared by Jeyapalan and Boehm (1986), Papadopoulos (1992) and Sivakugan et al. (1998). The mes sage is loud and clear that the predictions are generally signif icantly greater than the measured values. Based on 79 case histories of shallow foundations, Sivakugan et al. (1998) showed that Terzaghi and Peck (1948) method overestimates the settlements by 218% and Schmertmann (1970) method overestimates the settlements by 339%.
International Journal of Geotechnical Engineering (2007) 1: (19–29) DOI 10.3328/IJGE.2007.01.01.1929
J. Ross Publishing, Inc. © 2007
20
International Journal of Geotechnical Engineering
—
1
X
bility among all methods. Terzaghi and Peck (1948) and Schmertmann (1970) methods appear to have high reliability
and poor accuracy, reflecting their conservativeness. On the
other hand, Burland and Burbidge (1985) and Berardi and Lancellotta (1991) methods have good accuracy, with values close to unity, but low reliability.
f x (x)
2.2 Settlement ’94 Prediction Session
Briaud and Gibbens (1994) documented the class A settle ment prediction session held at Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas in 1994, where 16 academics and 15 consultants participated. An extensive site investigation involving 7 cone penetration tests, 6 standard penetration
tests, 4 dilatometer tests, 4 pressuremeter tests, 4 cross hole
X
tests, 3 bore hole shear tests and a step blade test was carried out at a 12 m 18 m site, where five different square pad footings were to be load tested to failure at a future date. Laboratory test data including maximum/minimum densi
ties, specific gravity of the grains, natural water content, void
ratio, densities and friction angles were also available for sand samples taken from 0.6 m and 3.0 m depths. The soil profile consisted predominantly of sands. The soil data were avail
able to all participants, who were asked to predict the loads,
Q _{2}_{5} and Q _{1}_{5}_{0} , which would make the five footings settle by 25
Accuracy
Figure 1. Accuracy and reliability in settlement predictions.
2.1 Accuracy and Reliability of the Different
Methods
Tan and Duncan (1991) defined two parameters for compar ing settlement prediction methods: accuracy and reliability . Accuracy is how close the predic tions by a specific method are to the measured values, and is defined as the average value of the ratio of the calculated to measured settlements. Reliability is the probability that the actual settlements would be less than those computed by a specific method. It is a measure of conservativeness of a settlement prediction method. The probabilistic representation of these two terms, accuracy and reliability, is shown in Figure 1. Here, settlement ratio (x) is defined as the ratio of calculated to measured set tlements. A good method should have accuracy closer to 1 and reliability closer to 100%. Tan and Duncan (1991) found that there is generally a tradeoff between accuracy and relia
mm 
and 150 mm, respectively. Q _{2}_{5} is the allowable footing 
load 
satisfying the settlement criterion, and Q _{1}_{5}_{0} is more or 
less the failure load corresponding to ultimate bearing capac
ity. The predicted and measured Q _{2}_{5} and Q _{1}_{5}_{0} values are summarized in Table 1. Also shown in the table are the values of measured Q _{1}_{5}_{0} divided by the safety factors of 2.5 and 3,
which are the allowable foot ing loads that satisfy the bearing capacity criterion. It is interesting to note that in all five foot
ings, 
these allowable loads satisfying bearing capacity crite 
rion 
are reached before the loads corresponding to settlement 
criterion. In other words, bearing capacity considerations
Table 1. Predicted and measured values of Q _{2}_{5} and Q _{1}_{5}_{0}
Footing dimensions (m) 
1.0 × 1.0 
1.5 × 1.5 
2.5 × 2.5 
3.0 × 3.0 
3.0 × 3.0 

Q _{2}_{5} : 
Measured (kN): 
850 
1500 
3600 
5200 
4500 

Predicted/Measured: 
Range 
0.071.29 
0.081.73 
0.081.19 
0.081.23 
0.091.24 

Mean 
0.71 
0.84 
0.68 
0.69 
0.70 

Std.dev. 
0.30 
0.60 
0.29 
0.28 
0.35 

Q _{1}_{5}_{0} : 
Measured (kN): 
1740 
3400 
7100 
10250 
9000 

Predicted/Measured: 
Range 
0.122.28 
0.123.34 
0.152.32 
0.152.51 
0.153.11 

Mean 
0.65 
0.81 
0.99 
1.08 
1.12 

Std.dev. 
0.45 
0.64 
0.55 
0.59 
0.69 

Q _{1}_{5}_{0}_{/} 2.5 (Allowable load with FS = 2.5) Q _{1}_{5}_{0}_{/} 3.0 (Allowable load with FS = 3.0) 
696 
1360 
2840 
4100 
3600 

580 
1133 
2367 
3417 
3000 
Settlements of shallow foundations on granular soil — an overview
21
(mm)
Settlement
govern the failure of all footings, as opposed to the common belief that the settlement considerations are more critical. This is probably due to the overestimations in the settlement prediction methods that result in underestimation of the allowable pressures. A total of 22 different methods were used by the partici pants, with Schmertmann (1970, 1978), Burland and Burbidge (1985) and finite element analysis being more pop ular. Table 1 shows that the quality of predictions were better for Q _{1}_{5}_{0} than Q _{2}_{5} , emphasizing the poor stateoftheart for settlement predictions of shallow foundations in sands.
3. TRADITIONAL SETTLEMENT PREDICTION METHODS
The traditional settlement prediction methods that were widely used over the past two decades or more are discussed in this section. These methods are discussed in great detail in several foundation engineering text books.
3.1 Terzaghi and Peck (1948) and Related
Methods
Terzaghi and Peck (1948) proposed the first rational method for estimating the settlement of a square footing on granular soils. They carried out plate load tests using a 300 mm square plate on sands with N _{6}_{0} = 10, 30 and 50 respectively and the pressuresettlement plots are shown in Figure 2. Here, N _{6}_{0} is the blow count from standard penetration test, not corrected for overburden stress. They related the settlement of a B meter wide square footing (δ _{f}_{o}_{o}_{t}_{i}_{n}_{g} ) to that of a 300 mm plate (δ _{p}_{l}_{a}_{t}_{e} ) by the following equation:
δ
=
δ
footingplate
×
⎛
⎜
2
B
⎞
2
⎛
⎜
D
f
⎟
⎞
⎝
B +
0
.
3
4
B
⎠
⎟
⎠
⎝
1 −
(1)
The last term in Eq. 1 accounts for the depth of embedment. Presence of water table in the vicinity of the footing is reflected in the blow count and therefore a separate correc tion for water table is not warranted. Nevertheless, rise of water table, while in service, can reduce the stiffness and pro duce additional settlements. Meyerhof (1965) noted the conservativeness in his previ ous method (Meyerhof, 1956) and the modified expression for the settlement is:
δ footing
δ footing
(mm)
=
1
.(q 33
kPa
)
N
60
(mm)
=
0
.(q 53
kPa
⎜
⎝
)
⎛
2 B
⎞
⎟
N
60
B +
0.3
⎠
2
for
B
for
≤
B
1.22
>
1.22
m
(2)
(3)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
100
200
300
Applied
400
pressure
(kPa)
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Loose
Very
Dense
dense
N 60
=
50
Medium
N 60
=
N 60
=
30
10
Figure 2. Pressuresettlement plot of a 300 mm square plate in sands with N _{6}_{0} = 10, 30 and 50 (load test data from Late Professor G.A. Leonards).
When correction for depth of embedment is taken into account, Eqs. (2) and (3) would become:
δ footing
(mm)
=
1
.(q 33
kPa
)
⎜
⎝
1
⎛
D
f
⎟
⎞
−
N
60
4
B
⎠
for
δ footing
(mm)
=
0
.(q 53
kPa
⎜
⎝
)
⎛
2 B
⎞
⎟
N
60
B +
0.3
⎠
2
⎛
⎜
⎝
⎞
D
1 −
ff
⎟
4
B
⎠
B
≤
for
1.22
B
>
m
1.22
m
(4)
(5)
Peck and Bazaraa (1969) methods adopt Eq. (3), replacing N _{6}_{0} with (N _{1} ) _{6}_{0} blow count from standard penetration test corrected for overburden stress. The settlement should then be multiplied by water table correction and depth correction. Thus,
δ footing
where
(mm)
= C
W
C
D
0
.(
53
q
kPa
)
⎜
⎝
⎛
2 B
⎞⎞
⎟
(
N
1
)
60
B +
0.3
⎠
2
C
W
=
σ 
at 
0.5 B 
below 
the 
bottom 
of the foundattion 

o 

σ 
′ 
at 
0.5 
B 
below 
the 
bottom 
of 
the 
fo 
uundation 
o 
(6)
(7)
σ _{o} = total overburden stress σ´ _{o} = effective overburden stress
C
D
=
10
.
−
04
.
⎛
⎜
⎝
γ D
f
q
⎞
⎟
⎠
0
.
5
(8)
γ = unit weight of soil The relationships for (N _{1} ) _{6}_{0} are:
and
(
N
1
)
60
=
4 N
60
1
+
0.0
4
σ
′
o
(for
σ
′ ≤
o
75
kN/m
2 )
(9)
22
International Journal of Geotechnical Engineering
Settlements of shallow foundations on granular soil — an overview
23
rectangular footings, the settlements should be computed for square and strip footing of the same width, and interpolated on the basis of B/L (L = length of footing). Terzaghi et al. (1996) simplified this further and sug gested influence factors as shown in Figure 3c. Here, I _{z}_{,} _{p}_{e}_{a}_{k} = 0.6 for both square and strip. For rectangular footing, the depth of influence (see Figure 3c) can be computed as:
z
I
=
2
B
⎛
⎜
⎝
1
+
log
L
B
⎞ (15)
⎟
⎠
3.3 Burland & Burbidge (1985) Method
Burland and Burbidge (1985) proposed a semiempirical method, using the blow counts from standard penetration test, based on the review of an extensive database of settle ment records of shallow foundations for buildings, tanks and embankments on granular soils. They noted that the influ ence depth of the footing, z _{I} , is approximately B ^{0}^{.}^{7} , where B and z _{I} are in meters. They recommend increasing N _{6}_{0} by 25% in gravel or sandy gravel. For fine sands and silty sands below water table, where N _{6}_{0} >15, driving of the split spoon sampler can dilate the sands which can produce negative pore water pressures that would increase the effective stresses and hence overesti mate the blow counts. Here, Terzaghi’s correction given below should be applied:
N _{6}_{0}_{,}_{c}_{o}_{r}_{r}_{e}_{c}_{t}_{e}_{d} = 15 + 0.5(N _{6}_{0} – 15)
(16)
The compressibility of the soil was represented by a com pressibility index ( I _{c} ), defined as:
I
c
=
–
1
.
71
N
1
.
4
60
(17)
where I _{c} is in MPa ^{}^{1} , and N _{6}_{0} is the average value of N _{6}_{0}
within the influence depth z _{I} . For overconsolidated granular soils, I _{c} is 1/3 of what is given in Eq. (17). Burland and Burbidge (1985) suggested that the settle ment can be estimated from:
^{δ} footing ^{=} ^{q} net ^{I} c ^{z} I
^{(}^{1}^{8}^{)}
In normally consolidated granular soils, Eq. (18) becomes:
δ footing
=
q
net
1
.
71
N
1
.
4
60
B
0
.
7
(19)
In overconsolidated granular soils, with preconsolidation pressure of σ′ _{p} , Eq. (19) becomes:
δ
footing
=
1
q
1
. 71
B
3
net
N
1
. 4
60
0
. 7
if
q
≤
σ
′
p
(20)
δ
footing
=
⎛
⎜
⎝
q net
−
2
σ
′
⎞
⎟
1
. 71
0
B
3
p
⎠
N
1
. 4
60
. 7
i ff
q
≥
σ
′
p
(21)
The settlements estimated as above apply for square foot ings. For rectangular or strip footings, the settlements have to be multiplied by the following factor (f _{s} ):
f
s
=
⎛
⎜
⎝
1
.
25
L
/
B
0
.
25
+
L
/
B
⎞
⎟
⎠
2
(22)
The settlements estimated above imply that there is gran ular soil at least to a depth of z _{I} . If the thickness (H _{s} ) of the granular layer below the footing is less than the influence depth, the settlements have to be multiplied by the following reduction factor (f _{l} ):
f
l
=
H
s
⎜
⎝
2
⎛
H
s
−
z
I
z
I
⎞ (23)
⎟
⎠
Burland and Burbidge (1985) noted some timedepend ent settlements of the footings, and suggested a multiplica tion factor (f _{t} ) given by:
f
t
=+
1
RR
3
+
t
log
t
′
3
(24)
where R _{3} takes into consideration the time dependent settle ment during the first three years of loading, and the last com ponent accounts for the timedependent settlement that takes place after the first three years at a slower rate. Suggested values for R _{3} and R _{t} are 0.30.7 and 0.20.8 respectively. The lower end of the range is applicable for static loads and the upper end for fluctuating loads such as bridges, silos, and tall chimneys.
4. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN SETTLEMENT
PREDICTION METHODS
Two recent methods that appear to give better settlement pre dictions are the ones proposed by Berardi and Lancellotta (1991) and Mayne and Poulos (1999). These two methods are briefly discussed below. Sivakugan and Johnson’s (2004) probabilistic approach is an effective way of quantifying the risk associated with the settlement prediction methods.
4.1 Berardi and Lancellotta (1991) Method
Berardi and Lancellotta (1991) proposed a method to esti mate the elastic settlement which takes into account the vari ation of the modulus of elasticity of soil with the strain level. This method is also described by Berardi et al. (1991). According to this procedure:
δ footing
=
I
q
net
B
s
E
(25)
24
International Journal of Geotechnical Engineering
Table 2. Variation of I _{s}
Depth of influence, z _{I}
B
L/B 
0.5 
1.0 
1.5 
2.0 
1 
0.35 
0.56 
0.63 
0.69 
2 
0.39 
0.65 
0.76 
0.88 
3 
0.40 
0.67 
0.81 
0.96 
5 
0.41 
0.68 
0.84 
0.89 
10 
0.42 
0.71 
0.89 
1.06 
where I _{s} = influence factor for a rigid footing (Tsytovich, 1951) and E = modulus of elasticity of soil. The variation of I _{s} (Tsytovich, 1951) with Poisson’s ratio v = 0.15 is given in Table 2. Analytical and numerical evaluations have shown that, for circular and square footings, the depth z _{2}_{5} below the foot ing beyond which the residual settlement is about 25% of the surface settlement can be taken as 0.8 to 1.3B. For strip foot ings ( L/B ≥ 10), z _{2}_{5} is about 50 to 70% more as compared to that for square footings. Thus the depth of influence z _{I} can be taken to be z _{2}_{5} . The modulus of elasticity E in Eq. (25) can be evaluated as:
E
=
Kp
E
a
⎛
⎜
⎝
σ
+
0
.
5
Δ
σ
o
p
a
⎠
⎟
′
′
⎞
0
.
5
(26)
where p _{a} = atmospheric pressure, σ′ _{o} and Δσ′ = effective overburden stress and net effective stress increase due to the foundation loading, respectively, at a depth B/2 below the foundation, and K _{E} = nondimensional modulus number. After reanalyzing the performance of 130 structures found on predominantly silica sand as reported by Burland and Burbidge (1986), Berardi and Lancellotta (1991) obtained the variation of K _{E} with the relative density D _{r} at δ /B = 0.1% and K _{E} at varying strain levels. Figures 4a and 4b show the average variation of K _{E} with D _{r} and
^{[}^{K} E(δ/B) ^{/}^{K} E( δ/B =0.1%) ^{]} ^{w}^{i}^{t}^{h} ^{δ}^{/}^{B}
In order to estimate the elastic settlement of the footing, an iterative procedure is suggested, which can be described as follows:
A. Determine the variation of the blow count from standard penetration test N _{6}_{0} within the zone of influence, that is z _{2}_{5} .
B. Determine the corrected blow count ( N _{1} ) _{6}_{0} as:
( N
1
)
60
=
N
60
⎛
⎜
⎝
2
1
+ σ
′
o
⎞
⎟
⎠
(27)
where σ′ _{o} = vertical effective stress
C. Determine the average corrected blow count from
–
standard penetration test ( N _{1} ) _{6}_{0} and hence the
average relative density as:
D
r
= ⎛
⎜
⎝
(28)
D. With known D _{r} , determine K _{E} _{(}_{δ}_{/}_{B} _{=} _{0}_{.}_{1}_{%}_{)} from Figure 4a and, hence, E from Eq. (26) for δ/B =
0.1%.
E. With the known value of E from Step D, the mag nitude of elastic settlement δ _{f}_{o}_{o}_{t}_{i}_{n}_{g} can be calcu lated from Eq. (25).
F. If the calculated δ/B is not the same as the assumed δ/B , then use the calculated δ/B from Step E and use Figure 4b to estimate a revised K _{E} _{(}_{δ}_{/}_{B}_{)} . This value can now be used in Eqs. (26) and (25) to obtain a revised δ _{f}_{o}_{o}_{t}_{i}_{n}_{g} . This iterative procedure can be continued until the assumed and calculated δ _{f}_{o}_{o}_{t}_{i}_{n}_{g} is the same.
(a) Variation of K _{E} with D _{r} for δ/B = 0.1%. (b) Variation of
[K _{E}_{(}_{δ}_{/}_{B}_{)} /K _{E} ( _{δ}_{/}_{B} _{=} _{0}_{.}_{1}_{%}_{)} ] with δ/B (adapted from Berardi and Lancellotta,
1991).
Figure 4.
Settlements of shallow foundations on granular soil — an overview
25
4.2 Mayne and Poulos (1999) Method
Mayne and Poulos (1999) provided a general relationship for elastic settlement calculation of footings using displacement influence factors derived from elasticity continuum theory. Here, it is assumed that the soil stiffness increases linearly with depth, from a value of E _{o} at footing level. According to this theory (Figure 5a):
where
δ
footing
=
q
net
′
BI
I
I
GFE
(1
− ν
2
)
E
o
(29)
B ′ = ⎛
⎜
⎝
4 BL
π
⎞
⎟
⎠
0
.
5
= equivalent diameter of a rectangular
footing
ν =Poisson’s ratio of soil
I _{G} =displacement influence factor (Figure 5b) I _{E} =settlement coefficient factor to account for depth
of embedment I _{F} =rigidity coefficient factor
The relationships to estimate I _{E} and I _{F} are:
I
E
I
F
=
=
1
1
−
π
4
⎡
⎛
3.5 
exp(1.22 ν 
− 
0.4) 
⎢ 
⎜ 
B 
′ 
⎟ 
+ 

1 
⎢ ⎣ 
⎝ D 
f 
⎠ 

+ 
4 
6 
10 ⎛ ⎜ 
E 
f 
⎞ ⎟ 
⎛ 
2 
t 
⎞ 
3 

. 
+ 
⎜ ⎜ ⎝ 
E 
+ 
B 
′ 
k 
⎟ ⎟ 
⎜ ⎝ 
B 
′ 
⎟ ⎠ 

o 
2 
⎠ 
⎞
1.6
⎤ ⎥⎥
⎥
⎦
(30)
(31)
where E _{f} = modulus of elasticity of the footing material (which is, in most cases, reinforced concrete), t = footing thickness, and k = increase in soil stiffness per unit depth (i.e., E = E _{o} + kz). The above procedure will give good results pro vided the modulus of elasticity of soil is predicted reasonably well.
4.3 Sivakugan and Johnson’s (2004)
Probabilistic Approach
Noting the different degrees of scatter associated with the set tlement prediction methods, a probabilistic approach is more appropriate than the traditional deterministic methods. The magnitude of settlement can have different meaning depend ing on which method was used for the computations. Sivakugan and Johnson (2004) developed a probabilistic framework, based on the settlement records in the literature, to quantify the risk associated with the settlement prediction methods. They proposed probabilistic design charts, for four
E
E o lkB´
(b)
Figure 5. Solution of Mayne and Poulos: (a) Footing on a compressible layer; (b) Variation of I _{G} with E _{o} /kB′ and H _{s} /B′.
different settlement prediction methods, which enable the designer to quantify the probability that the actual settlement will exceed a specific limiting value. The design chart for lim iting settlement value of 25 mm is shown in Figure 6. It can be seen from Figure 6 that when the settlement estimated by Terzaghi and Peck or Schmertmann et al. method is 25 mm, there is only 26% probability that the actual settlement will exceed 25 mm, demonstrating their conservativeness. The Burland and Burbidge method is a clear improvement on the quality of predictions, and the Berardi and Lancellotta method improves this even further.
26
International Journal of Geotechnical Engineering
mm)
25
exceed
will
settlement
(actual
p
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Lancellotta
&
Burbidge
Berardi
&
Burland
al.
et
Schmertmann
Peck
&
erzaghi
T
Settlements of shallow foundations on granular soil — an overview
27
Table 4. Correlations between E and q _{c} for granular soils
Reference
Relationship
Soil type
Schultze and Melzer (1965)
E =
⎛
⎜
⎝
301.1log
q
c
–
′
σ
o
+
382.3
p
a
60.3
±
50.3
⎞ ⎛
⎟
⎜
σ
′
o
⎞
⎟
⎠
0.522
σ
′
o
⎠ ⎝
p
aa
p
a
for
0
0.8
Dry sand
E/q _{c} = 2.5( q _{c} + 30) 
Sand below water table Clayey sand below water table 

Webb (1969) 
E/q _{c} = 1.67( q _{c} + 15) 

Buisman (1940) 
E = 1.5 q _{c} 
Sand 
Schmertmann (1970) 
E = 2 q _{c} 
Sand 
Schmertmann et al. (1978)
E = 2 q _{c} (axisymmetric loading)
E = 3.5 q _{c} (axisymmetric loading)
Normally consolidated sand
Vesic (1970) 
E = 2(1 + D ^{2} _{r} ) q _{c} 
Sand 

Bachelier and Parez (1965) 
E = αq _{c} 
α = 0.8 to 0.9 for pure sand; 1.3 to 1.9 for silty sand; 3.8 to 5.7 for clayey sand; and 7.7 for soft clay 
All soils 

DeBeer (1965) 
E = 1.5 q _{c} 
Sand 

E 
= 1.5 q _{c} (for q _{c} > 3 MN/m ^{2} ) 

DeBeer (1974) 
E = 3 q _{c} (for q _{c} < 3 MN/m ^{2} ) 
Sand (Greek practice) 

E 
= αq _{c} (1.5 < α < 2) 
Sand (U.K. practice) 

Trofimenkov (1964) 
E = 2.5 q _{c} 
Sand (lower limit) 

Trofimenkov (1974) 
E = 3 q _{c} 
Sand 
(USSR practice) 

E 
= 7 q _{c} 
Clay 

Thomas (1968) 
E = αq _{c} (α = 3 to 12) 
Sand 

Bogdanovi (1973) 
E = 1.5 q _{c} (for q _{c} > 4 MN/m ^{2} ) 
Sand and sandy gravel 

E 
= 1.5 to 1.8q _{c} (for 2 MN/m ^{2} < q _{c} < 4 MN/m ^{2} ) 
Silty saturated sand 

E 
= 1.8 to 2.5q _{c} (for 1 MN/m ^{2} < q _{c} < 2 MN/m ^{2} ) 
Clayey silt with silty sand, and silty saturated sand with silt 

E 
= 2.5 to 3.0q _{c} (for 0.5 MN/m ^{2} < qc < 1 MN/m ^{2} ) 
5. EMPIRICAL CORRELATIONS FOR MODULUS
OF ELASTICITY, _{E}
One of the main factors that contribute to the uncertainty in settlement predictions is our inability to quantify the soil stiffness correctly. Soil stiffness, measured by the modulus of elasticity, is generally quantified indirectly through the pene tration resistances from standard penetration or cone pene tration tests. The various empirical correlations relating N _{6}_{0} and q _{c} to E are summarized in Tables 3 and 4 respectively.
6. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
The current stateoftheart for predictions of the settlements of shallow foundations in granular soils is discussed. The Settlement ′94 prediction session held in Texas clearly showed the deficiencies in the current stateoftheart, where the pre dictions from the 31 international experts varied in a wide range. In spite of having access to the full data from a rigor
ous site investigation program, their predictions of Q _{2}_{5} , the load required to produce 25 mm settlement, were signifi cantly less than what was measured, implying that the settle ments were overestimated in general. In reality, the geotechnical engineer has access to very limited data from the field, and the quality of predictions can only be worse. The load test data for the five footings at the above pre diction sessions showed that, provided the factor of safety is greater than 2.5, bearing capacity considerations are more critical than the settlement criterion. It is the poor stateof theart for settlement predictions, which results in overesti mation of the settlements and underestimations of the allowable pressures, which leads one to believe that the settle ment criterion generally governs the design of shallow foun dations in granular soils. The traditional settlement prediction methods, including Terzaghi and Peck (1948), Schmertmann (1970) and Burland and Burbidge (1985) are discussed. Two of the most recent methods, proposed by Berardi and Lancellotta (1991) and Mayne and Poulos (1999) appear to give better and more
28
International Journal of Geotechnical Engineering
realistic settlement predictions. The probabilistic design chart presented by Sivakugan and Johnson (2004) can be used to estimate the probability that the actual settlement will exceed 25 mm in the field, based on the settlements estimated from the traditional methods. Several empirical correlations relating the modulus of elasticity of soil to blow count from a standard penetration test and cone resistance from a cone penetration test are dis cussed. These correlations are quite useful in assessing the soil stiffness, which is required in the settlement computations.
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