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POWERING TANZANIA'S FUTURE: TANZANIAN SECONDARY SCHOOL ELECTRIFICATION PROJECT

P REPARED BY T HE I NTERNATIONAL P ROJECT M ANAGEMENT AND D EVELOPMENT P ROJECT T EAM U NIVERSITY OF W ATERLOO M ASTER OF M ANAGEMENT S CIENCES P ROGRAM

April, 2011

Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................................................. 4 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................ 6 1.1. 1.2. 1.3. 2. 3. 4. Project Overview ........................................................................................................................................................ 6 Vision .......................................................................................................................................................................... 6 Scope of the project .................................................................................................................................................... 7

Project Background: Establishing the context.............................................................................................................. 8 Research Methodology ............................................................................................................................................. 10 Power Consumption Requirements ........................................................................................................................... 11 4.1. 4.2. 4.3. 4.4. Background .............................................................................................................................................................. 11 Assumptions ............................................................................................................................................................. 11 Power Requirement Calculation ............................................................................................................................... 11 Estimated Power Requirement ................................................................................................................................. 15

5.

Stakeholder Analysis ................................................................................................................................................. 16 5.1. 5.2. Coordination between Stakeholders ........................................................................................................................ 16 Stakeholder mapping ............................................................................................................................................... 17

6.

Power Solutions Overview ........................................................................................................................................ 19 6.1. 6.2. Non-Ideal Power Alternatives................................................................................................................................... 21 Top 3 Ideal Power Alternatives................................................................................................................................. 23

7.

Recommended Power Solutions Analysis and Evaluation.......................................................................................... 25 7.1. 7.2. 7.3. Solar Solution ........................................................................................................................................................... 25 Wind Energy Solution ............................................................................................................................................... 28 Solar-Wind Solution .................................................................................................................................................. 31

8.

Risk Assessment ........................................................................................................................................................ 33 8.1. 8.2. 8.3. Technical Risks .......................................................................................................................................................... 33 Political risks ............................................................................................................................................................. 34 Financial risks ........................................................................................................................................................... 34

9.

Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................................. 35 9.1. Recommended Solution Analysis: Solar Energy ........................................................................................................ 35

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9.2. 9.3. 9.4. 10. 11.

Sensitivity Analysis ................................................................................................................................................... 37 Recommendations for Implementation.................................................................................................................... 38 Project Budgeting ..................................................................................................................................................... 42 References ............................................................................................................................................................ 44 Appendices ........................................................................................................................................................... 49

Appendix A: List of Team Members ....................................................................................................................................... 49 Appendix B: Power Requirement Calculations ...................................................................................................................... 51 Appendix C: Solar Solution - Vendor Quotes ......................................................................................................................... 52 Appendix D: Wind Solution - Vendor Quotes ........................................................................................................................ 54 Appendix E: Tanzania Wind Map........................................................................................................................................... 55 Appendix F: Sensitivity Analysis ............................................................................................................................................. 56 Appendix G: Summary of Risks .............................................................................................................................................. 56 Appendix H: Evaluation Matrix .............................................................................................................................................. 56 Appendix I: Project Cost Estimates ........................................................................................................................................ 56

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
In 1996, the International Commission on Education for the 21st Century published a report to UNESCO discussing the future of education and its fundamental role in social development. Today, in 2011, technology plays a pivotal role in the teaching of the 21st century learner. Information and communications technology (ICT) provides a tool in which teachers can enhance traditional teaching methods and advance their skills and development; and students can easily access a variety of learning materials including customized and digitized interactive content. Acquiring skills of the future to enable active participation in today's global knowledge-based society will depend on an educational system which integrates information and communications technology into teaching and learning. In Tanzania, the Government has established education as a top priority based on the belief that a good educational system is the basis of a solid democracy, and is the best investment in terms of long-term social and economic development. While improvements to its educational system have occurred over the past few years, more are needed to overcome the serious challenges faced within the current system. Access to eLearning solutions through ICT has been identified as key to overcoming the major challenges faced by the current system and the ability to create a relevant, high-quality educational system. The basis of this report is to provide NetHope and the Accenture Development Partnerships with a recommendation for an innovative approach to bring electric power to 90% of the Tanzanian secondary schools that are currently not connected to the national power grid. This will assist in their joint endeavour to improve the educational system in Tanzania through the use of eLearning solutions. Ten sources of renewable energy were identified and considered for providing power to the off-grid schools in Tanzania: Solar, Wind, Solar-Wind Hybrid, Biomass, Micro- Hydroelectric, Tidal, Wave, Natural Gas, Bio Fuel (Croton & Jatropha Trees), Geothermal. Initial preliminary research was conducted on each alternative to identify their strengths and weaknesses according to the constraints and requirements of the project. Factors such as the maturation of the technology for electricity generation, the geography and climate of Tanzania, the locations of off-grid schools, the availability & distribution of actual energy sources, and the overall infrastructure requirements were considered. Based on this preliminary research, the three most viable solutions were selected for in-depth research and analysis: solar power, wind power, and a hybrid of both solar and wind power solutions. For a power solution to be viable for the NetHope initiative, it must be cost-effective from an installation and maintenance perspective and adaptable to other regions to increase its economic viability. Based on an analysis of potential power solutions using the aforementioned evaluation criteria, it is recommended that a solar photovoltaic, or PV power solution be used to bring power to Tanzanian schools. Tanzania is ideally situated to take advantage of its ample year-round solar radiation to introduce a solar based power generating system across its off-grid secondary schools. Solar powered electric generation systems harness solar energy into electricity, and represent a significantly powerful source of renewable energy. While solar power systems can be especially effective in areas that receive a lot of sunlight year-round, they can carry relatively high investment costs. Due to Tanzanias geographic location just below the equator, many parts of the country average between 7 to 10

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hours of sunshine a day, making them ideal locations for harnessing solar energy. Battery storage can be added to such a system, allowing for the capture and storage of excess power. Based on an analysis that determined that the optimal power requirement for each school is 2.4kWh per day using energy efficient devices, a detailed cost analysis was conducted based on vendor input. The estimated cost that satisfies the optimal power requirement is approximately US$10,000 per school for installation. Costs for operations and maintenance for each school ranges from US$25 to US$115 per year. The total estimated cost for providing off-grid power to all 4000 schools is approximately US$40 million, including operations and maintenance over 5 years. While the coordination and implementation of a solar power solution will certainly be challenging, such a project will enable the integration of a 21st century information and communications technology into the learning environment of Tanzanian students, and will positively impact the nations overall development. As a leader, Tanzania will be one of the first in Africa to benefit from the economic and social opportunities that such an education provides.

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1. INTRODUCTION
1.1. PROJECT OVERVIEW
The main objective of this report is to provide an innovative approach to bring electric power to 90% of the secondary schools in Tanzania that are currently not connected to the national power grid.1 To this end, extensive research was conducted to identify and prioritize potential power solutions, to identify key stakeholders who would need to be involved, and to develop a high level business case for solution implementation. The project team (refer to Appendix A for a list of members) identified potential power solutions which were evaluated against the following criteria: cost, time, effort, sustainability, adaptability, and opportunities. From all of the potential solutions explored, the best three were selected, extensively researched and analyzed, and ranked for recommendation. The project to develop this document is sponsored by Cathy Koop, Global Education Program Director at NetHope, Thomas E. Abell, Project Manager with Accenture Development Partnerships, and Kelvin Cantafio, Vice Chair and Board Member at NetHope. This project is supported by Dr. Peter D. Carr, Director of the Management of Technology program at the University of Waterloo.

1.2. VISION
The Government of Tanzania recognizes that education is the pillar of national development.2 Furthermore, Tanzanias Ministry of Education and Vocational Training believes that the use of Information & Communication Technology (ICT) in teaching and learning...represents a powerful tool with which to achieve educational and national development objectives.3 However, the majority of schools in Tanzania do not have access to power generation resources or to the Internet.4 Without the ability to use ICT, the majority of students and teachers in Tanzania cannot leverage the tools they need to become 21st century learners and contribute to the global knowledge-based society. In addition, economic and social development in Tanzania will not reach its potential if the capacity and effectiveness of education is not increased. Access to adequate power resources by all schools in Tanzania will enable the effective integration of ICT in the education system, and therefore contribute to the creation of a modern learning environment and advance the nations development. What will the Tanzanian education system look like if all schools could access adequate resources to power eLearning solutions and thus use ICT in the classroom? Teachers will have access to countless up-to-date teaching and learning materials that will enhance traditional teaching methods and advance teachers skills and development. They will be able to develop and use interactive learning materials which will be more engaging and effective. More students can be reached through the use of ICT using a variety of learning models such as blended and distance learning. Students will have easy access to up-to-date, engaging (Carr, 2011). (The Tanzania National Website, n.d.) 3 (ICT Policy for Basic Eduction, 2007) 4 (Accenture, 2010)
1 2

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learning materials, and digitized interactive content will allow them to learn at their own pace. Rural communities will no longer be isolated as they will be interconnected through ICT and people. Opportunities for collaboration and remote learning will exist, and community development will be enhanced through the community-use of schools and vocational training opportunities. The government will have the ability to easily distribute common curriculum and content to schools, and better manage and coordinate the activities of all schools across the country. Economic and social development will occur across Tanzania as the nations workforce gains access to a relevant, high-quality educational system.

1.3. SCOPE OF THE PROJECT


The scope of this project is to develop a report that recommends the best power generation solution with respect to overall cost, maintainability, capacity, and power requirements for a typical setup of eLearning technologies in off-grid secondary schools across Tanzania.

1.3.1. IN SCOPE
Various power supply options will be explored in order to find the most cost effective and efficient solution to off-grid schools in Tanzania. An assessment of the potential ongoing economic benefits of the recommended power solution will be provided. An analysis of the potential feasible power solutions will be conducted by examining the costs, benefits and sustainability of the implementation of the power solutions explored in this report. Recommendations and considerations for an implementation plan will consist of a pilot plan rollout and requirements for successful adoption in terms infrastructure and community acceptance. The identification and role of key stakeholders and potential partners will be discussed.

1.3.2. OUT OF SCOPE


A detailed implementation plan is out of scope. This project will not issue an RFP to potential providers of the recommended power solution. The recommended power solution will be based on a benchmark eLearning system setup; this report will not provide recommendations regarding eLearning device selection. Funding from outside organizations will not be solicited or investigated in depth. The project recommendations will be limited to the boundaries of the current technological environment. While the economic implications of the application of the recommended power solution outside Tanzania will be taken into consideration, scalability to schools in developing countries other than Tanzania will not be a requirement.

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2. PROJECT BACKGROUND: ESTABLISHING THE CONTEXT


The Government of Tanzania, under the leadership of President Jakaya Kikiwete, has established education as a top priority. This priority is based on the belief that a good educational system is the basis of a solid democracy, and is the best investment in terms of long-term social and economic development. The current Tanzanian secondary education system is made up of over 4000 schools, 35,000 teachers, and more than 1.6 million students. Due to overcrowded schools (a 100 student to one teacher ratio was common in many schools), an effort was made to greatly increase the number of schools in rural areas. This effort was extremely successful; 3000 of Tanzanias over 4000 schools have been built in the last three to four years; two years ahead of schedule. This explosive growth in schools has resulted, however, in a shortage of approximately 65,000 secondary school teachers. This lack of teachers has meant that interactive learning and individual attention from teachers is impossible5. A shortage of learning resources also limits the learning opportunities for students. For example, reference books, labs, teaching and learning aids are in extremely short supply. In some schools, up to 20 students share a textbook. As a result of these shortages, the government has been unable to change the curriculum since 2005. Additionally, the results currently being achieved by the students are of great concern. Nationally, only around 30% of students pass exams6. With such a high failure rate for secondary students, the government has realised that definitive action needs to be taken for the betterment of the nations future. In combating this challenge, the Tanzanian Ministry of Education and Vocational Training launched Tanzania Beyond Tomorrow. The goal of this initiative is to address the challenges currently faced by the Tanzanian secondary school system in the most timely and cost effective way possible. The objectives of the program are to improve access for all students to quality education; complement the current teachers in the system with innovative uses of technology; improve student learning outcomes as measured by standardized educational metrics; create solutions that are engaging for the students; and build capacity within the Ministry of Education for adaptability for the future needs of Tanzanias students. Key to the objectives listed above is the implementation of an eLearning solution. This solution will be used to fill the teacher gap by providing students with access to material that is not currently available in their schools. The solution as proposed is to involve a variety of eLearning content, focusing on five themes: watch, read, play, experiment and connect. Having discussed an eLearning solution, it is important to note that the focus of the program as outlined is to be on student learning rather than on the underlying technology solution. Major hurdles exist with the eLearning solution; among the most critical is the lack of power and internet services in over 90% of the schools7. This problem is often compounded by the remoteness of many of the
5 6
7

(Carr, 2011) (Accenture, 2010)


(Carr, 2011)

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secondary schools, many of which have poor transportation access. To overcome these challenges, the Government of Tanzania has brought together a broad community of partners including technology firms, NGOs and donors. Both expertise and funding is currently being sought in order to achieve program success. As one of the partnering organizations, NetHopes mission is to ensure that their members have access to the best information and communication technology and practices when serving people in the developing world.8 The International Project Management and Development Project Team from the University of Waterloos Masters of Management Sciences Program has been called upon to assist NetHope by recommending a solution to bring electric power to the off-grid secondary schools in Tanzania.

(NetHope, n.d.) Page |9

3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Research was conducted in 2 key areas through the course of this project. The first was research into potential eLearning device hardware in an effort to elicit accurate power requirements. The results of this research helped determine the power requirements that the alternative power solutions were measured against and provided input for the sensitivity analysis conducted on the recommended power solution. The second area is the research of alternative power solutions. Preliminary research of all alternative power solutions was completed. This was done in a sufficient manner to allow the team to narrow the list of possible solutions to the best 3 options that meet the constraints and requirements of the project. After narrowing the number of alternative solutions to 3, extensive research into these 3 options was undertaken in an effort to thoroughly evaluate each against the criteria outlined below. Detailed results of this research can be found in Section 7: Recommended Power Solutions Evaluation and Analysis in this report. In each case, the following research methods were applied: Brainstorming (potential hardware devices/power solutions) Review of available resources such as books, journals, Internet, etc. Resources at the University of Waterloo recommended by Dr. Peter Carr Vendors (determined whether team members have existing relationships that could be leveraged, then determined the list of possible vendors to interview) Preliminary research from primary sources - interviewed industry experts and vendors for initial information gathering Preliminary research from secondary sources Detailed primary research - in depth interviews with a selection of the most appropriate and accessible industry experts and vendors Compiled and provided case studies related to similar projects successfully implemented in other countries

For all of the above outlined steps, results of the research was documented for future reference and included in this report where appropriate. Background information forms the basis of all research conducted. The evaluation criteria, found in Appendix H: Evaluation Matrix, was used as a guideline for expanding the research so that each criterion could be evaluated accurately and consistently based on supporting details that address all pertinent questions about the alternatives being researched.

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4. POWER CONSUMPTION REQUIREMENTS


4.1. BACKGROUND
The power solutions analyzed and recommended in this report must appropriately satisfy the expected power requirements of the proposed eLearning plan for the Tanzania Beyond Tomorrow initiative.9 In order to estimate the expected power requirements, a list of devices were selected that could support the technical requirements of an eLearning system in an off-grid school in Tanzania as described.10 For each device, research was conducted to estimate the expected power consumption based on the advertised consumption of the devices available on the market at the time of this report. Based on this research, the total estimated power consumption was derived for each school. The spreadsheet accompanying this document, entitled Appendix B: Power Requirement Calculations can be used to adjust any assumptions made and assist with power requirement sensitivity analysis.

4.2. ASSUMPTIONS
The power requirements for the Tanzania Beyond Tomorrow initiative are based on the following assumptions. The assumptions were derived from weekly discussions with the project sponsors, as well as from the documents provided and listed in the References and Appendices sections of this report. There are roughly 400 students per school Student devices will be available for 20% of the students in a school at one time There are 10 classrooms per school Each classroom requires 1 projector, 1 teacher device capable of connecting to the projector Each classroom requires 8 student eLearning devices (400 students x 20% / 10 classrooms) Each school requires 3 wireless access points (one access point can support up to 30 devices.) Each school requires a server Each school requires 1 internet device to provide internet access via the mobile phone network to the server Schools are open for an 8 hour period Device up-time is approximately 85% of the school day, or 6.8 hours a day Devices are expected to be used 100% of the required up-time (required usage time)

4.3. POWER REQUIREMENT CALCULATION


The estimated total power requirement was determined by selecting appropriate potential devices, researching the power consumption of those devices, and then calculating the estimated total consumption of the devices based on the stated assumptions.

9 (Accenture, 10

2010) (Accenture, 2010) P a g e | 11

4.3.1. SELECTION OF APPROPRIATE DEVICES


Before selecting the actual devices required at the schools, hardware architecture was selected by consulting the work done by the One Laptop Per Child project. This model, which has been successfully implemented across the world in similar low power situations, recommends the use of a school server and a wireless access point in order to be able to route communication throughout a school.11 In order to get a realistic estimate of the power consumption of each device, a set of criteria was identified to assist in targeting appropriate devices to be used as a basis for estimating their respective power consumption. The criteria used were as follows:

Primary Criteria
Cost of devices ($) cost is a major factor in determining the feasibility of using a particular device; therefore, lower cost devices are more desirable Power consumption/output (W) devices with relatively low power consumption are more desirable

Secondary Criteria
Enhanced eLearning capabilities devices with specific educational capabilities, such as portability and durability, are more desirable Maintenance requirements devices requiring relatively low maintenance, such as those without moving parts, and devices that can operate without batteries are more desirable

4.3.2. ESTIMATION OF DEVICE POWER CONSUMPTION


Several brands and models of each device were researched in order to obtain a realistic estimate of a devices power consumption. A summary of the most appropriate models based on the selection criteria is provided below. The brand/model that best fit the criteria is given in the un-shaded box.

Student/Teacher Device
Type of Make/Model Max. Power Enhanced Maintenance Average Price Device Consumption (W) eLearning Required (USD) Netbook Acer Aspire One 532 h 49 No Average $329 Netbook Asus EeePC1015 48 Yes Average $347 Tablet Apple iPad 7.5 No Below Average $600 Tablet BlackBerry Playbook ~7.5 No Below Average $500 Netbook OLPC XO-1.75 5 Yes Below Average $165 Tablet Marvell Moby 2 Yes Below Average $100 Notebook Intel Classmate 18 Yes Average $285 Sources: acer.com, asus.com, apple.com, blackberry.com, laptop.org, marvell.com (respectively)

11

(Deployment Guide, n.d.) P a g e | 12

Projector
Type of Device Projector Projector Projector Micro Projector Micro Projector Make/Model Epson EB-84 Sanyo PLC-XW250 BenQ GP1 Aaxa Technologies M1 Ultimate Aaxa Technologies L1 Max. Power Consumption (W) 228 212 60 30 7.5 Maintenance Required Above average Above average Average Average Well Below Average Below Average Average Price (USD) $1,800 $595 $629 $279 $400 $110

Micro Projector Aaxa Technologies P1 Jr Pico 5 Sources: epson.com, sanyo.com, benq.com, aaxatech.com (respectively)

Wireless Access Point


Max. Power Maintenance Required Consumption (W) Linksys E2100L 12 Average D-Link DIR-655 Xtreme 12 Average Netgear N300 12 Average Ubiquiti PicoStation2 4 Below Average Sources: linksys.com, dlink.com, netgear.com, ubnt.com (respectively) Make/Model Average Price (USD) $120 $120 $80 $60

School Server
Make/Model Max. Power Consumption (W) 49 Memory / Drive Size Maintenance Required Average Average Below Average Below Average Average Price (USD) $329 $347 $480 $398

Acer Aspire One 532 1 GB/250 GB h Asus EeePC1015 48 1 GB/250 GB Aleutia T1 18 1 GB/0.5 TB fitPC2 13 1 GB/160 GB Sources: acer.com, asus.com, aleutia.com, fit-pc.com (respectively)

Internet Device
Make/Model USB Internet Device Source: zte.com.cn Max. Power Consumption (W) 5 Internet Source Mobile Average Price (USD) $20

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4.3.3. CALCULATION OF TOTAL POWER REQUIREMENT


Total power requirement calculations are based on the consumption for each device along with the stated assumptions. The calculations are provided in Appendix B within the accompanying spreadsheet entitled NetHope_Sensitivity Analysis.xls. The spreadsheet can be used to determine the impact of a change to an assumption or the power consumption of a specific device on the total power requirement.

Optimal Power Requirement


This report will make reference to the optimal power requirement when referring to the power required for the brand/models identified in this section that best fit the criteria given.

Conservative Power Requirement


This report will make reference to the conservative power requirement when referring to a more conservative power requirement that substitutes the Intel Classmate as the student and teacher device instead of the Marvell Moby tablet.

Average Power Requirement


This report will make reference to the average power requirement when referring to a rough average between the optimal and conservative power requirements. This is done for comparative purposes. The calculations for the optimal power requirement are summarized below for convenience. Total Power Requirement (per school, per day) Max. Power Number of Expected Hours of Consumption (W) Devices operation 2 5 4 13 5 90 10 3 1 1 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8

Device Student/Teacher Device Projector Wireless Access Point Server Internet Access Device Total

Total Power Consumption (kWh) 1.224 0.34 0.0816 0.0884 0.034 1.768

Source: Appendix B: Power Requirement Calculations

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4.4. ESTIMATED POWER REQUIREMENT


The estimated optimal power requirement for each off-grid school in the Tanzania Beyond Tomorrow project is 1.768kWh per day. This amount takes into consideration a 15% loss factor for an AC to DC conversion for those devices that use an AC adaptor (the teacher/student device, server, and wireless access point). If a completely DC based system is used, the estimated optimal daily power requirement is reduced by 0.1822 kWh, the amount of loss for the equipment listed above. For comparative purposes, the estimated conservative power requirement is 11.56kWh per day, calculated using the sensitivity analysis tool in Appendix B using the Intel Classmate as the student and teacher device.

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5. STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS
Stakeholder analysis is a technique for determining how stakeholders interact with organizations and more specifically how they may respond to changes. Stakeholders interact with the project in two primary arenas: cultural and political.12 It is very important for the project team to understand the processes that take place in both arenas to ensure effective coordination between major stakeholders.

5.1. COORDINATION BETWEEN STAKEHOLDERS


The requirements of the Tanzania Beyond Tomorrow project require collaboration among its stakeholders including: the Tanzanian Government and Ministry of Education, rural Tanzanian communities (teachers, students, general public), technology providers, Internet service providers, NGOs and outside funding organizations. This collaboration requires each participant to present their specifications such that an accurate estimation of the power requirement for a technological solution can be made. From this, the best solution that satisfies the eLearning requirements can be chosen and approved by the Tanzanian Ministry of Education. Careful attention must be made to address the feedback from the stakeholders who have a direct impact on the successful adoption of the project, such as the funding organizations and the Government of Tanzania. NetHope, a partner of the Government of Tanzania, maintains a repository of best practices and processes for such projects, and allows access to these assets to people in the developing world. As a result, NetHope has an interest in a modular system that is reusable, scalable, and adaptable to other developing countries. The Government of Tanzania has undertaken the eLearning project as a strategic action that complements teaching and learning to deliver a quality educational experience and help bridge the teacher shortage gap. These efforts are aiming to transform the Tanzanian educational system through technology.13 The Government of Tanzania should collaborate closely with NGOs, donors, teachers, students and its Ministry of Education to create the proper linkages between these parties in order to allow a smooth flow of requirements and data. NGOs utilize financial resources, materials and volunteers to create localized programs around the world. NGOs garner their funds from fundraising and grants provided by governments and organizations. NGOs around the world are involved in a range of projects, but are most often associated with health and safety, social welfare, and environmental issues.14 Assistance with eLearning initiatives in Tanzania falls within these associated interests.

(Newcombe, Robert, 2003) (Abell & Long, 2010) 14 (Willetts, 2002)


12 13

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Wireless Internet service providers (WISPs) exist predominantly in rural environments where digital subscriber lines and cable are unavailable.15 Such an environment exists in Tanzania, which creates a high level of interest for WISPs and a need to stay apprised of developments in this project.

5.2. STAKEHOLDER MAPPING


One of the most important elements of the stakeholder analysis is a stakeholder mapping. Stakeholder mapping is a technique that allows the project team to evaluate the influences of the various stakeholders on the project objectives and create the strategies to manage their expectations. Stakeholder mapping can be performed in two dimensions power/predictability and power/ interest.

5.2.1. PREDICTABILITY/POWER MATRIX


The parties with high power and low predictability (in our case technology partners and donors) represent the greatest influence on project outcomes. Therefore, it is very important to understand the expectations of these parties and manage them accordingly. Predictability / Power Few problems Low

High

Low Unpredictable but manageable

Technology providers Internet service providers NetHope

Tanzanian community (teachers, students, general public)

Powerful and predictable High


Greatest danger or opportunities

Government of Tanzania Tanzanian Ministry of Education

Donor parties

15

(Glossary WISPTech, n.d.) P a g e | 17

5.2.2. INTEREST/POWER MATRIX


The Interest/Power matrix helps to define the stakeholders with highest level of power and interest in the project outcome. The expectations of these stakeholders, for example the Tanzanian government, Ministry of Education, and funding organizations, must be closely monitored and satisfied accordingly. Level of interest / Power Low Minimal efforts Low

High Keep informed


General public

Students and teachers Technology providers Internet service providers NetHope

Keep satisfied High

Key players

N/A

Government of Tanzania Tanzanian Ministry of Education Donor parties

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6. POWER SOLUTIONS OVERVIEW


Eight alternative sources for energy were identified and considered for providing power for the Tanzania Beyond Tomorrow initiative. Initial preliminary research was conducted on each alternative to identify their strengths and weaknesses as they pertain to the constraints and requirements of the project. This research is summarized in the table below. Based on this preliminary research, the top three most viable solutions were selected for in-depth research and analysis. Strengths Solar Renewable energy source Ideal for off-grid power 16 Short installation times; can be installed in a few months 17 Environmentally friendly (low emissions or waste)18 Easy to scale output as demand grows19 Effective in areas with consistently high sunlight Proven technology Renewable energy source Ideal for off-power grid: power generation is inconsistent due to wind availability but less expensive in per kWh term Environmentally friendly (no emissions and waste) Can potentially generate power 24 hrs/day depending on consistency of wind Low initial investment for smaller output requirements costs 20 Relatively small land requirements for smaller turbines 21 Effective in high wind-speed regions Weaknesses Only generates power during daylight Highly dependent on environmental conditions; available sunlight, time of day, time of year, location Potentially high initial investment costs

Wind

Power generation depends on wind levels and therefore not constant and relatively less predictable 22 Relatively high maintenance costs (1.5% - 2% for new systems, 3% for older systems/ yr) 23 Negative impact on wildlife (birds, bats) 24 Impact of noise on health and welfare of surrounding communities 25

16 17
18 19

(Efficient Energy Saving, n.d.) (HeatingOil.com, 2009)

(Efficient Energy Saving, n.d.) (HeatingOil.com, 2009) 20 (Latzko, L., n.d.) 21 (Gavalda, M., n.d.)

(TutorVista.com (n.d.) (Wind Measurement International, n.d.) 24 (Energy Business Daily, 2010) 25 (Brathwaite, C., 2010)
22 23

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Solar/Wind Combination

Biomass

Proven technology Renewable energy source Ideal for off-grid power as solar system is incorporated Environmentally friendly (no emissions and waste) Can potentially generate power 24 hrs/day depending on consistency of wind, sunlight Can use high-sunlight or high windspeed conditions to generate power Renewable energy source Can help in reducing local waste Biomass is available almost anywhere Renewable energy source Can produce efficient power in areas near flowing water Produces a continuous supply of electrical energy Low initial investment costs Relatively low maintenance costs27

Weather dependency of both solar and wind Maintenance requires a high level of skills, knowledge and cost Impact of noise on health and welfare of surrounding communities26 High initial investment costs (see Appendices C & D)

High initial and on-going maintenance costs Technology used for generating electric power is immature Can be a major cause of pollution Requires a distribution system for areas away from the water source Can have adverse environmental effects: siltation, impact on flora and fauna, effect of water diversion on local ecology Inconsistent: Season dependant; lower power output in summer months Poor scalability, as the size of the power source is a limiting factor28 Not supported by the Government of Tanzania29 Requires transmission line and distribution system Not supported by the Government of Tanzania31 Requires transmission line and distribution system Inconsistent dependant on a consistent supply of powerful waves Non-renewable energy source Produces C02 emissions Requires costly exploration of deposits

MicroHydroelectric

Tidal

Wave

Renewable energy source Reliable and predictable source of energy Not weather dependant Environmentally friendly Renewable energy source Powerful source of energy Low maintenance costs 30

Natural Gas

Less C02 emissions than coal or oil32 Power output can be increased during peak periods and decreased during off-

26

(Brathwaite, C., 2010)

27
28

(Alternative Energy News, 2006)


(Alternative Energy News, 2006)

(The Republic of Tanzania, 1992) (Mitchell, Kiley, n.d.) 31 (The Republic of Tanzania, 1992) 32 (Global Greenhouse Warming.com, 2010)
29 30

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peak times Proven technology

No government regulatory body in Tanzania to administer its implementation and use current gas industry is a monopoly in Tanzania with no government regulatory control33 Exploration of natural gas deposits not supported and encouraged by Government of Tanzania34 System requires three years of planting the trees prior to trees mature for fruit bearing Technology not fully support by Tanzania Government, as food shortage is a bigger issue Requires local farmers buy-in Site for plant is dependent on specific land constraints 35 High risk as underground geothermal reserves are not confirmed36 Large initial investment37

Bio Fuel (Croton & Jatropha Trees)

Renewable energy source Powerful source of energy (comparable to diesel) Environmentally friendly (low emissions) Renewable energy source Can produce large quantities of power Little to no by-products or emissions

Geothermal

6.1. NON-IDEAL POWER ALTERNATIVES


6.1.1. BIO FUEL (CROTON & JATROPHA TREES)
The Government of Tanzania policies oppose the use of edible foods or lands for energy production that could be used for edible food production38. Although using Croton & Jatropha trees as bio fuel energy can stimulate the local economy and create an entrepreneurial culture, the substantial ongoing cost to pay for local labour can be up to US$5,500 per year39. In addition, these trees require a 4-5 year initial growth before the trees are mature enough to produce fruit for energy generation40. This energy source also requires significant buy-in from the local farmers and entrepreneurs to grow the trees.

(Semberya, D., 2011) (Semberya, D., 2011) 35 (Green Living Answers, n.d.) 36 (The Republic of Tanzania, 1992) 37 (The Republic of Tanzania, 1992) 38 (Browne, P., 2009) 39 (Henning, R. K., n.d.) 40 (Henning, R. K., n.d.)
33 34

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6.1.2. MICRO-HYDRO ELECTRIC


Micro-hydroelectric power systems use energy from flowing water and are a form of hydroelectric power that can produce up to 100 kW of power41. Micro-hydroelectricity was not considered for further analysis primarily due to geographical factors since success of this solution relies significantly on its proximity to a river. For schools not located near a river, a power distribution system would be required, dramatically increasing the setup costs.

6.1.3. TIDAL AND WAVE


Both tidal and wave power systems are forms of hydroelectric power that converts the energy of tides and waves respectively, into electricity. These forms of power generation were not considered primarily because a power distribution system is required to distribute the power across Tanzania. 42 In addition, as of the date of this report, the policies and legislations of the Government of Tanzania do not support the use of tidal and wave power systems.43

6.1.4. NATURAL GAS


Natural gas is one of the largest sources of electricity and produces approximately 30% less carbon dioxide than petroleum and 45% less than coal.44 In Tanzania, however, the use of natural gas for power generation is not supported by the local government, and there are no regulatory bodies to administer its use. In addition, transmission lines would be required to distribute the generated power across Tanzania. Therefore the use of natural gas for this initiative was not considered.

6.1.5. BIOMASS
The use of biomass to produce energy typically involves the incineration of living and non-living biological material such as plants and wood. If used and managed properly, biomass energy has the potential to be a significant and viable source of renewable energy.45 At this time, the technology for electricity generation from biomass is still in the early stages of development. As well, the cost of implementing biomass solutions for generating electric power is significantly high and is therefore not a suitable alternative for this application. For these reasons, biomass was not explored further as a potential solution for generating power for off-grid schools in Tanzania.46

6.1.6. GEOTHERMAL
The energy contained within the earth, known as geothermal energy, can be used as a renewable source of electric power. Geothermal energy is being used to produce electricity by many countries in the world, (U.S. Department of Energy, n.d.) (Wald, M., 2010) 43 (The Republic of Tanzania, 1992) 44 (NaturalGas.org, n.d.) 45 (Cruickshank, W., Robert, J. & Silversides, C., n.d.) 46 (Haq, Z., n.d)
41 42

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including the United States, where it accounts for approximately 18% of the countrys electric power.47 Of particular interest is its use in Kenya, where approximately 25% of the countrys power is estimated to come from geothermal energy.48 Geothermal energy used for power generation was not chosen as one of the three most ideal solutions primarily because of the extremely high upfront costs and high risks associated with this alternative, particularly when compared to solar or wind technology.49 It is not something that can be done effectively at 4000 different schools as it would be cost-prohibitive. Although geothermal is effectively used in Kenya to generate on-grid power, it is at a much higher volume then what is needed for this project.50

6.2. TOP 3 IDEAL POWER ALTERNATIVES


6.2.1. SOLAR
Solar powered electric generation systems harness solar energy into electricity, and represent a significantly powerful source of renewable energy. While solar power systems can be especially effective in areas that receive a lot of sunlight year-round, they can carry relatively high investment costs. Solar energy has been used to generate power as early as the 1950s, and significant advancements in related technologies have led its increase in adoption over the past 50 years. Improvements in technology have also significantly decreased the costs of installation. While costs are still relatively high, solar power has become a viable option for developing countries such as Tanzania.51 Due to Tanzanias geographic location just below the equator, many parts of the country average between 7 to 10 hours of sunshine a day, making them ideal locations for harnessing solar energy.52 However, since the amount of sunshine in Tanzania varies across the country, special considerations may be required for schools in these locations. In spite of the relatively high installation costs, solar powered electric generation is a proven and powerful renewable technology that can be suitable for many locations in Tanzania. It was therefore selected as a potential candidate for this initiative.

6.2.2. WIND
A wind turbine system uses wind energy to generate electric power, and can be a cost effective method of generating electricity from a renewable energy source. The effectiveness and feasibility of wind turbine systems depend largely on wind patterns, power requirements, and availability of land in the targeted region.

(Geothermal Energy Association, 2010) (Geothermal Energy Association, 2010) 49 (The Republic of Tanzania, 1992) 50 (Slater, T., 2010) 51 (Perlin, J. 1999) 52 (BBC Weather, n.d.)
47 48

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Wind solutions have been implemented in many regions throughout the world and have been proven to be a viable option in many cases. This is partly due to their relatively low initial installation costs compared with other renewable energy sources such as solar.53,54 Areas with an average of 10 mph (16 km/hr) or higher winds are particularly conducive to wind turbine systems, as they can potentially generate large amounts of power throughout the day. According to the Tanzania Wind Map in Appendix E, there are a few areas in Tanzania with relatively high wind speeds that would be good candidates for a wind turbine system. The land requirements of a wind solution depend on the size of the turbine, which in turn depends on the power output requirements. Considering the relatively low power requirement of the off-grid schools in Tanzania (less than 10 kWh/day), it may be possible to use smaller turbines, and therefore the availability of land is likely not be an issue. Due to the relatively low implementation costs and historical wind speeds in parts of Tanzania, a wind turbine system was chosen as a viable option for further analysis.

6.2.3. COMBINATION SOLAR AND WIND


The combined solar and wind solution has both the advantages and disadvantages of both wind and solar, as it is solar system with a wind turbine component added-on. For the solar component, the two rooftop solar technologies that may be considered are thin-film PV technology and crystalline silicon (PV module) technology. The panels used in the cost analysis in this report are crystalline silicon PV technology panels.55 A wind turbine can be added to the solution if wind speeds are sufficient. While a solar/wind hybrid system is likely not an ideal solution due to the complexity of the system for initial setup and ongoing maintenance, detailed research and analysis for this option was pursued in the context of this report since in time it may prove to be a viable and effective option worth exploring further.

(Windpowergenerators.com, 2011) (Latzko, L., n.d.) 55 See Appendix C, Solar Solution Vendor Summary
53 54

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7. RECOMMENDED POWER SOLUTIONS ANALYSIS AND EVALUATION


7.1. SOLAR SOLUTION
7.1.1. DESCRIPTION
Solar energy is a powerful source of renewable energy that radiates more potential energy on the Earths surface in a single hour than is consumed by the human race in an entire year.56 Innovations in solar technology have been developed over the past 50 years that can be used to harness the suns energy in the form of sunlight and converted into usable energy for heat and electricity.57 Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology is one of the most commonly used methods of electricity generation from solar radiation.58 Individual PV cells are grouped into panels and arrays of panels that can be used in a wide range of applications. Solar systems can be applied on a small scale where single cells are used to charge calculator and watch batteries, to medium sized systems that bring power to buildings, to much larger scale systems such as power plants that supply electricity to a grid system.59 In addition to the numerous advantages of solar energy discussed throughout this report, the Government of Tanzania has simplified procedures for investing in solar projects. The simplifications include a 100% depreciation allowance in the first year of operation, and exemptions from import duty and VAT on PV modules and system components.60 Furthermore, extensive guarantees are provided by the Government of Tanzania to investors under the investment promotion centers certificate of approval. These guarantees relate to the ownership of property, dispensation of assets, and repatriation of income.61

7.1.2. DETAILED ANALYSIS


This detailed analysis on micro generation solar systems includes research from numerous published sources on the Internet, as well as information provided by solar solution vendors in the region. Refer to Appendix C: Solar Solution Vendor Summary for details on the vendors contacted. Three specific power requirements were considered for analysis; 1.768 kWh per day for the optimal scenario, 11.56 kWh per day using the Intel Classmate device, and 6.16 kWh per day, chosen for comparative purposes. Refer to Section 4: Power Consumption Requirements for a detailed explanation of the calculation of these estimates. In addition, Appendix F: Sensitivity Analysis provides a tool for analysing alternative device and system selections.

(National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2007) (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2007) 58 (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2007) 59 (U.S. Energy Information Administration, n.d.) 60 (Tanzania Solar Energy Association, 2005). 61 (African Rural Energy Enterprise Development, n.d.)
56 57

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Micro generation refers to power system installations that generate power in small increments and have a minimal overall footprint, both carbon and otherwise. Micro generation systems can be used to provide electricity to remote locations where providing access to the main grid is infeasible. Systems generally require a relatively small amount of space compared to more traditional counterparts, since typical installations do not require pipelines, storage tanks and other space-inefficient equipment.62 Solar systems in particular have been used to power off-grid schools in other parts of Africa, including Mali.63,64 Micro generation solar systems rely on solar radiation for power generation. However, the amount of sunlight that arrives at the Earth's surface is not constant, making the consistent generation of electricity a challenge. The generation of electricity using solar energy depends on location, time of day, time of year, and weather conditions. Since Tanzania lies just below the equator, clear, sunny days are typical in most of Tanzania. According to a study completed in 2002 at the University of Dar es Salaam, 90% of the country experiences more than sufficient solar radiation levels to generate electricity to meet the power consumption requirements of a school (as calculated in Section 4: Power Consumption Requirements).65 Solar solutions can be enhanced and made more reliable through the addition of a battery storage system. A battery storage system would be able to capture and store the excess electricity generated by the micro generation solar solution and use it to displace some portion of the electricity demanded at a later period.66 Therefore, a battery storage system was incorporated into the design of the micro generation solar solution used for analysis. Table 7.1 provides details on the cost breakdown of PV power generator solutions, including battery storage, for the three power requirement options. Note that all costs are in US dollars.

Table 7.1: Potential Solar Solutions Cost Breakdown


Optimal: 3.08 kWh / day Cost of solar panels 2 x 220W modules $1,383 ~ $6.5 Average: 6.16 kWh / day 4 x 220W modules $2,766 Conservative: 15.4 kWh / day 10 x 220W modules $6,914 ~ $33

Cost of panel interconnectors, lugs, etc. Cost of free-standing frame w/ adjustable pivot + swivel Cost of inverter and other related parts Cost of battery

~ $13

~ $457.5

~ $915

~ $1,830

~ $3,442

~ $3,442

~ $3,442

12V 200Ah (2 Units)

12V 200Ah (2 Units) $760

12V 200Ah (2 Units)

(HeatingOil.com, 2009) (Victron Energy, n.d.) 64 (Efficient Energy Saving, n.d.) 65 (Alfayo, R; & Uiso, C., 2002) 66 (Hodge, B., Huang, S., & Reklaitis, G., 2010)
62 63

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$760 Fixed cost of other system infrastructure Estimated labour cost Total Cost ~ $1,517 ~ $1,517

$760 ~ $1,517

~ $2,286 ~ $9,852

~ $2,286 ~ $11,699

~ $2,286 ~ $16,782

(Source: Appendix C Solar Solution Vendor Summary and other sources as referenced) The cost breakdown includes a few non-essential pieces of equipment that may not be necessary for all installations. A free-standing frame which can be used to mount the solar panels on the ground would not be required if a schools roof were large and stable enough to support the mounted solar panel(s). An inverter would not be required if there is no requirement to convert DC power to AC. According to Harmon, Operations & maintenance (O&M) costs for systems are nominal, ranging between $0.02 to $0.10 cents/kWh.67 Using this range, it can be estimated that the annual O&M costs for a solar system that produces 3.08kWh/day is be between $22.48/year and $112.42/year. Similarly, O&M costs range from $44.97/year to $224.84/year, and $112.42/year and $562.10/year, for systems generating 6.16kWh/day and 15.4kWh/day respectively. In addition to the ongoing annual costs related to operation and maintenance of the system, the battery in the battery storage system needs to be replaced approximately every 5 years. Battery replacement represents a cost of approximately $760 per battery every 5 years over the life of the solar energy solution, which is approximately 25 years.68

7.1.3. ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES


Advantages
Ideal for off-grid power Many configurations of solar systems use modular subcomponents to provide a redundant generation of power; failure of one solar panel should not have a significant impact on the overall power output in the short term.69 Solar solutions are easily scalable by adding more panels if greater power generation is needed.70 System installation can be completed in approximately 8 weeks per school according to vendor estimates (see Appendix C). Energy is generated using a sustainable and renewable energy source and produces no emissions during operation.71

(Harmon, C., 2000) (European Photovoltaic Energy Association, n.d.) 69 (Solar Systems, n.d.) 70 (Phono Solar, n.d.) 71 (Alesma, E., & Nieuwlaar, E., 1997)
67 68

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The use of progressive technology to provide practical solutions encourages innovation within the rural communities of Tanzania. The use of solar systems to power off-grid schools may also increase the feasibility of employing similar solutions within the rest of the community. Solar energy solutions align with Tanzania's renewable energy policy72 and has the potential to help set the standards for good practice for planning, consultation, development, operational activities and research across Tanzania for the renewable energy sector (similar to the practise started in UK in 1999).

Disadvantages
There is a slightly higher installation cost associated with solar systems versus comparable wind system solutions. Solar systems are largely dependent on the amount of sunlight that arrives at the Earths surface. Therefore the effectiveness of these systems depends on the location, time of day, time of year, and weather conditions.73

7.2. WIND ENERGY SOLUTION


7.2.1. DESCRIPTION
Over the years, wind turbine systems have proven themselves to be a cost effective method of generating electricity from a renewable energy source. The usage of such a system is dictated by land availability, topography, and meteorology. In general, a suitable location for a wind turbine system used for the generation of electricity is one with sufficient open land and a minimum average wind speed of 6 m/s74. Depending on size, wind turbines typically produce one to five watts per square metre of land.75 While data for Tanzania shows sufficient wind speeds for the generation of electricity in some areas of the country, there is insufficient average wind speeds in other areas, especially through the rainy season when average monthly wind speeds drop below the minimum required to operate a wind turbine.76 It is therefore not feasible for wind energy solutions to bring electric power to the majority of schools in Tanzania, however it could be considered as a potential source of energy for schools located in areas with the required wind speeds where solar power generation is not practical.

7.2.2. DETAILED ANALYSIS


This analysis includes information from published sources in addition to information provided by wind solution vendors in Tanzania and Kenya. As the study lacks specific site details and wind performance for each location, it has been built on vendor experience and prior research analysis.

(The Republic of Tanzania, 1992) (U.S. Energy Information Administration, n.d.) 74 (House Energy, n.d.) 75 (Wind Resources, n.d.) 76 (Alpha Omega Ecological Solutions, n.d.)
72 73

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As previously mentioned, a power solution needs to generate, at minimum, 1.768KWh of electricity (see Section 4: Power Consumption Requirements for details of how this estimate was calculated). Based on vendor recommendations, a 1kW, 1.4kW or 5kW micro generation wind energy system for off-grid schools in Tanzania could be considered.77 Table 7.2 provides details on these three wind energy options and shows the complete installation costs, the cost of equipment to save excess power, the cost of battery damage prevention equipment, and the cost of capacity building for local training for operations.

Table 7.2: Potential Wind Energy Solutions Cost Breakdown


Wind Turbine Solution Name Turbine max power [kW] Turbine rotor diameter [m] Daily generated power Turbine price Voltage controller for grid Voltage controller battery charging Grid inverter SMA Windy boy Standalone inverter DC->220V AC Battery Guyed wire (GW) mast 12 meter Free standing tower 12 meter Wind measurement analysis Total system cost78 Battery (to save excess power) Optimal: 2.4kWh/day Piggott 1kW 1 kW 3m 2.4 kWh ~$1,777.78 N/A ~$355.56 N/A ~$260.00 12V 200Ah (2 Units) $760 ~$938.67 ~$938.67 ~$2,000.00 ~$7,030.68 12V 200Ah (2 Units) $760 ~$178.00 ~$200.00 Average: 3.36kWh/day Passaat 1.4kW 1.4kW 3.12m 3.36 kWh ~$3,652.00 ~$1,256.00 ~$636.00 ~$1,772.00 ~$1,110.67 12V 200Ah (2 Units) $760 ~$2,171.00 ~$2,766.67 ~$2,000.00 ~$16,124.34 12V 200Ah (2 Units) $760 ~$178.00 ~$200.00 Conservative: 12kWh/day Montana 5kW 5kW 5m 12kWh ~$9,601.33 ~$1,960.00 ~$2,036.00 ~$2,950.67 ~$2,148.00 12V 200Ah (2 Units) $760 ~$2,657.33 ~$5,132.00 ~$2,000 ~$29,245.33 12V 200Ah (2 Units) $760 ~$178.00 ~$200.00

Battery regulator79 Battery isolator80 Total with power saving equipment ~$8,168.68 ~$17,262.34 ~$30,383.33 Capacity building ~$8,977.99 ~$8,977.99 ~$8,977.99 TOTAL (with capacity building) ~$17,146.67 ~$26,240.33 ~$39,361.32 (Source: Appendix D Wind Solution Vendor Summary and other sources as referenced)
77

Refer to Appendix D Wind Solution Vendor Summary total system cost in the vendor's quote is not equal to the total system cost in this table because we are substituting the vendor's battery cost with the battery cost analysis in Section 7. 79 (Bright Green Energy, n.d.). 80 (Bright Green Energy, n.d.)
78The

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The installation cost is provided by the vendor and included in the total system cost. The operation and maintenance cost of a wind solution is 1.5% to 2% of the total initial cost per year.81 In theory, wind power solutions can generate energy 24 hours a day. While operating, however, they typically have an efficiency factor of less than 40%.82 To calculate the energy generating capacity of the solutions listed in Table 7.2, an efficiency factor of 10% was used based on a rough estimate from the vendor. This efficiency factor takes into consideration both the power loss of a wind system, as well as the average amount of hours per day of sufficient wind. Excess power generated during the windy season can be saved by adding extra batteries and a battery isolator. A battery isolator allows the simultaneous charge of multiple deep cycle batteries. A battery regulator (or protector) can be added to prevent the overcharge and discharge of energy from the batteries. The battery regulator is a key component and should always be incorporated as an essential element in a wind turbine system. Since reliable, current wind speed data for the specific geographical locations of the schools are not available, it is critical that site-specific wind assessments be conducted prior to implementation of a wind system to determine whether the solution is viable and, if so, the proper installation configuration. The wind measurement analysis takes 12 months at a cost of US$2,000.83

7.2.3. ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES


Advantages
A wind power solution can theoretically generate electricity 24 hours per day as long as there are sufficient wind speeds. Wind energy solutions align with Tanzania's renewable energy policy.84 Energy is generated using a completely renewable energy source that requires no fuel and emits no air pollution. Wind power solutions are easily scalable by adding more wind turbines if greater power generation is needed. Wind power solutions are ideal for off-grid power generation.

Disadvantages

81 82

Not all locations in Tanzania experience sufficient wind speed to use wind energy to generate electricity. To investigate whether a location is suitable for electricity generation by wind power, a wind measurement analysis needs to be conducted at the site over 12 months at a cost of US$2,000.85 The production of electricity would not always remain consistent due to variations in wind speeds. Landscape impacts, noise pollution and bird mortality are environmental issues of concern.86

(Wind Measurement International, n.d.) (The Engineering Toolbox, n.d.) 83 Refer to Appendix D Wind Solution Vendor Summary 84 (The Republic of Tanzania, 1992) 85 Refer to Appendix D Wind Solution Vendor Summary 86 (Birnie, R., Lumsden, C., ODowd, S., & Warren, C., 2005) P a g e | 30

7.3. SOLAR-WIND SOLUTION


7.3.1. DESCRIPTION
The proposed solution would be to develop a micro-generation power package that combines wind and solar power units with battery back-up. The objective is to deliver a continuously regulated power supply of 1.768kWh to 11.56 kWh for a minimum of 6.8 hours a day in rural areas of Tanzania. The solution will use the same technology as discussed in the solar and wind detailed analysis sections of this report.

7.3.2. DETAILED ANALYSIS


A solar plus wind solution for a power requirement of 12 kWh or less would be a custom solution built to specifications based on the locations needs. Micro generation solar and wind hybrid solutions are not commonly available from commercial vendors in Africa. Additionally, custom solutions do not lend themselves well to adaptability; not only does there need to be site specific testing for a sustained wind, the vendor has to be able to calculate how much battery storage is needed to supply an uninterrupted supply of power on a residential scale. To compensate for the inconsistency in wind speeds, the solar component of the system would, at times, provide 100% of the power required. Conversely, when solar radiation levels are not sufficient to produce the required amount of energy, the wind component of the system would compensate to generate the required power. The solution would have to be designed to meet the minimum power requirement which may be achieved through the adequate application of solar panels since the amount of available sunlight is easier, more accurate and less expensive to measure than wind speed. A combined solar and wind solution would produce varying amounts of excess power; some days there would be enough power to just meet the power requirements of the school while others there would be excess to sell for other uses. If a combined solution were designed such that the solar component meets at least 90% of the power requirements with wind supplying the balance, excess power could be used for other uses such as an AC and DC outlet to charge small mobile phones and other personal devices. For this reason, a combined solution may have greater potential for the generation of income through the sale of excess power generated by the system. Some days there may be enough excess power to do this and other days there may not be.

7.3.3. ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES


Advantages
100% up time energy provided; continuous 24/7 availability of power Higher reliability due to the redundancy of the systems Aligned with the Tanzania's renewable energy policy Suitable for geographical regions with seasonal variation in wind and solar radiation

Disadvantages
Lack of consistency in the power generation - both systems may generate up to the capacity while the system is designed for a split percentage P a g e | 31

Cost of maintenance is higher for a hybrid solution Extra skill sets required to maintain both systems Less cost effective than a single technology solution

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8. RISK ASSESSMENT
The wide scale implementation of renewable energy solutions to off-grid schools in Tanzania involves risks associated with different phases of the project. A thorough risk management plan is required so that the impact of these risks can be minimized. Developing an effective risk management plan requires extensive knowledge and research about Tanzania, the stakeholders involved in the project, and the technology being deployed. While significant research was conducted during the development of this report, there are many unknown aspects of the project that require additional knowledge so that risk management can be executed effectively. Using a variety of different techniques such as brainstorming, expert judgment and lessons learned from similar projects, known risks of implementing this project were identified. Risks are classified into categories (technical, commercial, political), and the phase of the project (research, vendor selection, pilot, implementation, operation, maintenance) in which the risk might occur and the impact of the risk (low, medium, high) is defined. A summary of these risks are provided in Appendix G. The strategy towards managing risk varies based on the risk response method. Some risks should be controlled and mitigated, while others need to be avoided or transferred. It is recommended the risks listed in this report be revisited and additional risks added prior to moving to the next stage of the project. Also, risk management should be progressively elaborated throughout the project and not limited to the beginning phase. To develop a full scale mitigation plan and properly assess the impact of the identified risks on the project objectives, a project implementation plan is required. In the absence of such a plan, some discussion around high-level recommendations on how to mitigate the risks has been considered for each risk type.

8.1. TECHNICAL RISKS


The recommended solution may not be the best solution for all locations of schools in Tanzania. The eLearning devices selected for schools may not be accepted by end users. New technology may become available in the near future, which might become the preferred technology by the end users. However, this new technology might consume more power than the total capacity of the recommended power solution. Solar panels may be installed incorrectly, which might add to the cost of maintenance. If a solar panel is in partial shade for a prolonged period of time it will produce hot spots, which would result in damage to the panel and therefore additional costs. The building structure of the schools in Tanzania may not be strong enough to support roof-top solar panels. There may be noise issues raised by the community if the selected solution involves wind turbines. Environmental changes in the future may negatively impact the performance of the selected power solution. Adverse weather effects may damage power solution equipment (e.g. lightning may damage solar panels, high winds may damage wind turbines, etc.).

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Technical Risk Mitigation Strategies


o o o o o o Ensure that government agencies, end users, sponsors, general public, and other important stakeholders are actively involved throughout the project, including the early stages. Identify and involve vendors who have experience with similar power solution projects in Africa. Use vendors technical experience and recommendations in regards to future design, installation and scalability of the recommended power solution. A prototype should be used to test the selected power solution. Ensure uninterrupted flow of technical information among sponsors, vendors, government agencies and end users. Investigate and utilize the lessons learned from similar projects, preferably in similar geographical regions.

8.2. POLITICAL RISKS


Some stakeholders may demand project changes that might lead to schedule delays and cost overruns. Unpredictable difficulties in the relationships with government authorities and other key stakeholders might occur. The Government of Tanzania may prefer certain suppliers, which was not communicated during the development of this report.

Political Risk Mitigation Strategies


o o o o Develop a detailed stakeholder map which includes their different perspectives (e.g. power, influence, interest) so that expectations can be managed throughout the project. Ensure constant communication between all parties of the project in order to avoid misinterpretations, misunderstandings, and duplicated efforts. Build a strong relationship with the Government of Tanzania and keep it informed throughout the project life cycle. Acceptance and support for the project is critical. Identify possible sources of conflict and manage them accordingly.

8.3. FINANCIAL RISKS


Actual costs might exceed the quotations provided by the vendors during the development of this report. Theft of the power solution equipment might occur during and after project implementation. There may not be enough resources for operations and maintenance.

Financial Risk Mitigation Strategies


o o Thoroughly evaluate the quotations from different vendors in order to keep the project within the allocated budget. Document changes to the project scope, eLearning device choices, and the power solution design so the impact on the overall cost of the project can be determined. Negotiate in the contract who takes financial responsibility for changes that may occur. Perform a thorough evaluation of operations and maintenance costs. Consider the involvement of the local community in these activities. Evaluate the financial benefits associated with the selling of excess power. Plan for the long term sustainability of the project to ensure sufficient funds are available for operations and maintenance.

o o o

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9. CONCLUSION
9.1. RECOMMENDED SOLUTION ANALYSIS: SOLAR ENERGY
To bring electric power to approximately 4,000 Tanzania secondary schools not connected to the national power grid, the solution needs to generate a minimum of 1.768 kWh/day per school (refer to Section 4: Power Consumption Requirements for details of how this estimate was calculated). The power solution must be cost-effective from an installation and maintenance perspective, and adaptable to other nations to increase its economic viability. To ensure Tanzanian students have access to a 21st century learning environment as soon as possible, the time and effort required for the power solutions installation and implementation needs to be minimal. Finally, the solution needs to be sustainable into the long-term future, and the generation of economic benefits and other opportunities should be considered. Based on an analysis of potential power solutions using the aforementioned evaluation criteria, it is recommended that a solar energy solution should be used to bring electric power to Tanzania schools. Compared with a wind energy solution, a solar energy solution installation and maintenance is more costeffective. According to SolarSells, a South African company specializing in solar power solutions, the installation cost of a 15.4 kWh/day solar solution is approximately US$16,783 (refer to Table 7.1). Average annual operational and maintenance costs of solar solutions are estimated at less than US$565 per year including battery replacement costs every five years (refer to Section 7.1.2 Detailed Analysis of Solar Solution). In comparison, the installation cost of a 12 kWh/day wind power solution is estimated to be approximately US$29,245 (refer to Table 7.2). In addition, a wind measurement analysis would need to be conducted at each potential location over a 12 month period at a cost of US$2,000.87 Maintenance costs for similar wind energy projects are estimated at approximately 1.5% to 2% of the initial investment per year.88 Since Tanzania lies just below the equator, clear sunny days are the norm in much of Tanzania. According to a study completed in 2002 at the University of Dar es Salaam, 90% of the country experiences more than sufficient solar radiation levels to generate electricity to meet the power consumption requirements of a school (as calculated in Section 4: Power Consumption Requirements).89 On the other hand, wind energy has been harnessed to pump water in several areas but its ability to efficiently generate electricity in a lot of the country is unknown. It is known that wind speeds in some areas are sufficiently high and constant for electricity generation, but this is not the case for all areas. Research recommends that before a final decision on the suitability for wind energy in Tanzania can be decided, an investigation of wind energy distribution on an hourly, daily, monthly and annual basis from continuous wind speed data for a period of at least 5 years is necessary.90 Both wind and solar power solutions are adaptable to other developing

Refer to Appendix D Wind Solution Vendor Summary (Wind Measurement International, n.d.). 89 (Alfayo, R; & Uiso, C., 2002) 90 (Kainkwa, R., 2002)
87 88

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countries, however an analysis of solar radiation and wind speed maps of Africa suggest that solar energy is a more feasible solution for electricity generation for the majority of locations on the continent.91,92 For schools, the highest time of available power coincides with peak power consumption, providing a significant benefit of solar power solutions. This increases reliability, so that even on a cloudy day, when there is insufficient power for the student computer lab, the teachers will still be able to use a projector. In addition to this advantage, there will be less demand on the batteries. Each system will need fewer batteries, and each battery will have a longer life span, since they will not have to cycle as often or as deep. This is an advantage in comparison to wind power generation where batteries can be a cause of large installation and maintenance costs. Unlike wind power solutions, there is no need for a feasibility evaluation at each location to determine if solar power is a viable option. Without the need for an evaluation, money will be saved and the installation will happen much faster. According to Ensol Tanzania Limited, a Tanzanian company specializing in the installation of solar energy equipment, it takes a maximum of 8 weeks for a full solar power solution to be installed.93 While the installation time for similar wind power systems is estimated at only 1-2 days, the wind analysis required before a wind power solution can be installed takes 12 months or more, adding a significant amount of time for installation.94 Both solar power and wind power solutions are installed and maintained by companies specializing in these areas. No effort is required by local schools and communities to maintain these power generation systems and overall maintenance requirements for both solutions appear to be minimal. Another benefit of both solutions is their scalability. The same components work effectively for each school, regardless of its size and power requirements. It is easy to add more solar panels or wind turbines to a system if necessary. To accommodate minor changes in power requirements either system can be scaled in small increments, with proportionally small incremental cost increases. Solar energy is a long term sustainable power solution that will bring economic and social benefits to the country. Solar energy depends on the renewable resource of sunlight. While wind is also a renewable resource, solar radiation is more plentiful throughout the country. Solar power solutions are environmentally friendly in operation. They consume no fuel and emit no air pollution or greenhouse gases. While wind power solutions also consume no fuel and emit no air pollution, landscape impacts, noise pollution and bird mortality can be environmental issues of concern.95 Economic benefits can be realized through the sale of excess power, furthering enhancing the sustainability of the solution. The amount of excess power available will vary, depending on the amount of power the system generates and the amount of power consumed at each school. However, due to the lower cost of solar energy systems and the climate favouring solar energy generation, the potential for solar power solutions to generate a higher income on the sale of excess power is greater. (Global Energy Network Institute, n.d.) (European Commission Joint Research Centre, n.d.) 93 (Ensol Tanzania Limited, n.d.) 94 (Dasolar Energy, n.d.) 95 (Birnie, R., Lumsden, C., ODowd, S., & Warren, C., 2005)
91 92

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A hybrid solution of both solar and wind energy technologies might be suitable for locations in Tanzania with sufficient wind speeds. The ratio of solar panels to wind turbines would be location-dependent and would require a wind measurement analysis at each location. This solution is more complex than a solaronly power solution, and the cost, time and effort of implementation is greater. A hybrid solution is typically used for generating more power than is required for the off-grid schools. Because a hybrid solution is not suitable for all locations, it is more complex and costly, and the time and effort to implement is greater, a solar-only solution is recommended as a national off-grid power solution for schools in Tanzania. While the coordination and implementation of a solar power solution will be challenging, such a project will enable the creation of 21st century learning environments for Tanzanian students and will positively impact the nations development.

9.2. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS


Sensitivity analysis is an important decision making tool because real-world problems, such as the challenge with powering off-grid secondary schools in Tanzania addressed in this report, exist in the context of a changing environment96. The power consumption of eLearning devices can be expected to vary over time as technology advances, as will the amount power demanded by the local communities as new applications of an off-grid power source arise. The sensitivity analysis tool that has been developed and is presented in Appendix F: Sensitivity Analysis will provide decision makers with the information required to respond to these changes without having to rework the calculations that the variable inputs are based on. In the sensitivity analysis, the cost of a solar solution is based on location variables including solar radiation levels and device variables including cost, voltage, output, rating, and efficiency as well as a summary of balance of materials costs associated with panel installation and operation. The number of solar radiation hours per day will vary by location. Typically, most areas of Tanzania experience 7-10 hours of sun per day depending on location and time of year. The numbers provided in the sensitivity analysis are for demonstration purposes and do not necessarily reflect the solar radiation levels in any specific region of Tanzania. The battery back-up for a solar system should be able to store and provide up to one day of power in the event that the solar panels do not receive adequate sunlight to meet the daily power requirement. This is reflected in the cost calculation for battery back-up for solar. The cost of a wind solution is based on location variables including wind speeds and air density and device variables including cost, turbine blade diameter, rating, and efficiency as well as a summary of balance of materials costs associated with turbine installation and operation. Wind speeds in Tanzania vary by location. Overall, Tanzania experiences a median wind speed of around 11m/s97 but this varies widely by location and time of year. The numbers provided in the sensitivity analysis are for demonstration purposes and do not reflect the annual wind speeds in any specific region of Tanzania. The density of air decreases

96 97

(Anderson D., Sweeney D., Williams T., 1999) (Kainkwa, R.M. and Mwanyika, H.H., n.d.)

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with temperature and altitude; 1.23 kg/m3 is the density of dry air at sea-level. Actual air density can be calculated using a tool, available from various online sources. The battery back-up for a wind system should be able to store and provide up to three days of power in the event that there is insufficient wind to meet the daily power requirement. This is reflected in the cost calculation for battery back-up for wind. A table summarizing the costs of solar and wind solutions with and without battery back-up systems has been provided in Appendix F for comparison purposes.

9.3. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION


9.3.1. FEASIBILITY STUDY
An implementation feasibility study should be performed to identify ideal schools for the pilot phase. During the feasibility study, any location-specific implementation risks can be identified.

9.3.2. PILOT PROJECT


The project should be implemented in multiple phases, beginning with a pilot project phase. A total of fifty schools across Tanzania in various geographical locations should be identified based on the feasibility study results. The recommended time to properly implement the pilot project across fifty schools, allowing time for installation, testing and observation, is between one and three years. During this phase, vendors should work with stakeholders and develop an implementation strategy - parallel, sequential or hybrid based on the pilot experience and projected resources.

9.3.3. FUNDING & PROJECT COSTS


It is recommended a detailed budget is developed once a power solution and appropriate vendors are selected. Clear milestones should be established and payments should be tied to achieving the milestones. Examples of such milestones include the number of schools with an installed solution and minimal cost variation between estimated and actual per solution implementation. In addition to power solution technology costs, the detailed budget should include costs for the implementation of community education and training programs and other costs associated with such a project. It is recommended that the cost estimates provided in the various sections of this report, based on the vendor quotes in Appendices C & D, should be used as a guide. A tendering process should be undertaken so that the best vendors can be identified and a detailed budget developed. Additionally, partnership opportunities between the Government of Tanzania and non-governmental organizations such as NetHope, donors, vendors, and developed countries should be explored and leveraged.

9.3.4. IMPLEMENTATION PHASE


The following includes recommendations that should be considered for project implementation.

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Project management & coordination:


A complete project management plan should be developed for each phase of the project. Establish a project governance model and ensure adherence to standards is maintained. The vendors that are responsible for the overall project management of the project should be independent of the vendors providing the power solution implementation. Independent vendors should be used for training, consultation, security and monitoring. Legal contracts and service agreements with defined deliverables for cost, solution, training, consultation, and monitoring should be signed. Project management should be supported and guided by a stakeholder steering committee so that the stakeholders are involved in the implementation and are consulted throughout the entire project. The stakeholder steering committee would consist of representatives from government, educators, vendors and community leaders. Such a committee will mitigate several of the project risks listed in the Risk Assessment section of this report. Create a network of local professionals and community individuals to facilitate the implementation of the project. Identify community champions to assist with the coordination and management of the project at a community level. The role of the Government of Tanzania should be evaluated at each stage of the project to increase the chances of successful rollout and adoption.

Vendor selection:
Use local vendors where possible to stimulate the local economy and maximize local expertise. Use local contractors and materials to reduce project costs.

Local training for operations and maintenance: Maintenance


Local training for the maintenance of the system should be done by the vendor to ensure that all warranty requirements are met. The local school district should be advised and trained on common maintenance issues and an operations manual should be present in each school. This will assist the local school districts to identify more serious issues and know when to call a qualified, vendor-approved technician. Warranty overview training should be provided to the local school boards. Ongoing maintenance expenses should be considered in the local school districts annual budget to ensure consistency, sustainability and reliability of maintenance activities.

Knowledge Transfer & Training


Train local teachers on the use of the network, peripherals, and educational software. Train local community members to maintain and operate the system and hardware devices. Develop a formalized training program for the community to enrich individuals knowledge-base in computer technologies.

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Security:
School district budgets should incorporate the funds required to secure the power solution and eLearning systems and equipment. Security models should consider both outsourcing and community involvement options.

9.3.5. TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS


Recommended Power System
To take full advantage of all the benefits of solar power generation, recommendations for a modular system have been established. It is important to note that all system recommendations herein are based on a 12 Volt DC system throughout. Solar panels have a wired connection to a battery storage system; the batteries are protected with high and low power protection devices to prevent over and under charging. The system also requires wiring from the batteries around the school, and a separate wired connection from the main bus bar to the devices. The alternatives for each of the components were considered and a selection of devices that best reduces maintenance cost while mitigating risk and reducing initial cost were chosen.

DC Power system
It is recommended is that the entire system be hardwired to use 12 Volt DC, since it is likely that most of the devices will require DC power. If the some devices selected use AC rather and DC power, an inverter may be incorporated into the system for those particular devices. The advantage to a 12 Volt DC system is that it will save both money and energy. If an inverter is used to convert to AC power, efficiency would be lost in this process, as well as the added cost of the inverter. A similar loss of efficiency and money would apply when a transformer is used to reconvert the power from AC to DC.

Panel Types
Two technologies were considered for the solar panels; thin film and crystalline silicon. In many cases, thin film technology could be integrated onto the roofs of the existing building. However, this is likely not the best option for the off-grid schools in Tanzania since it is anticipated that there is considerable variance in roof materials, quality of construction, slope, amount of space, and exposure to direct sunlight among the many schools. Therefore it is recommended that crystalline silicon solar panels be used for the NetHope initiative. Crystalline silicon panels are currently cheaper and are considered a proven technology that is widely adopted and carried by vendors in Africa. The panels can be mounted on a constructed base beside the school. As a part of a modular design, this will also increase solution scalability, increase solution adaptability, and lower the long-term operational maintenance costs. This design will also decrease implementation time and the overall cost; the cost and time of assessing each roof will be avoided. A mounted solution allows for roof maintenance without affecting the solar panels, thereby lowering the maintenance costs as well as increasing system flexibility based on each schools individual requirements and conditions.

Modular Harness
The wiring of the system can be designed and built to further increase flexibility. Although wiring is not complex, the cost can become substantial, especially if it requires skilled labourers to design or install. For this reason it is recommended that a custom harness be created specifically for the NetHope initiative that can be deployed to each of the 4000 schools. Because of the quantities required, it is likely that the P a g e | 40

development of the panel can be produced cost-effectively in a factory setting and with superior quality due to economies of scale. The custom harness would be designed to accommodate a specific number of solar panels, with a set number of safe plugs that connect to the panels equipped with mating plugs. This set up would ensure that one efficient and inexpensive system could be used in all locations with little technical abilities required for setup. The harnesses would have a limited amount of plugs available to control the number of panels added so the current would not exceed a safe and efficient amount. For larger requirements, additional panels could be used. Multiple harnesses could be used to support additional panels if required. This design would help to ensure the system is installed correctly and maximize its efficiency.

Battery Considerations
It is recommended that deep cycle, 200-amp 12 Volt DC batteries be used for battery backup. Two or more batteries are likely required to supply enough energy to power to the school for one full day. The batteries should be stored just inside the computer lab in a compartment that will protect them from excess heat or cold conditions, and from tampering. Only proven battery brands should be used since the life expectancy criteria is difficult to define and regulate, and is often inconsistent. Other battery considerations include the cost per amp hour and life expectancy based on depth, number of cycles and time. The batteries chosen will also need to be protected against overcharge and undercharge to maximize battery life. Safety devices should be used to avoid damage to the various parts of the system.98 It is recommended that a double protection system be used. The device chosen will turn on a heating element if the voltage of the system goes above 14.4 Volts.99.100 In addition to this it will not allow power to be used by the devices if the power goes below 11 Volts for more than 11 seconds.101 A secondary device should be used to provide power to the teacher devices including the projectors, which will turn off if the power for that device goes below 10.5 volts for 20 seconds. By doing this teachers are able to continue teaching without interruption even if the sun intensity is not high enough for several days.

Wiring
The wiring to the devices will be done similar to the power supply with pre-made harnesses that will limit the number of devices by the number of plugs on them. These will be wired throughout the classroom as required. This common wire can be used in all the schools were the system is used. The devices will need to be provided with a power cable that uses matching plugs to go directly into the 12 Volt DC system. No transformers or internal batteries will be required with the devices. This will further increase the efficiency of the devices and reduce their costs.

Additional Batteries
Additional batteries can also be used to capture excess output. This can be used especially on weekends and holidays, and any time there is a surplus of power. The excess power may provide a source of revenue to assist with maintenance of the system. For a fee, members of the community could charge personal batteries from the excess power stored in the additional battery.
98 99

(Battery and Energy Technologies n.d.) (Power Planted. n.d.)


(REUK n.d.)

100

101

(REUK n.d.) P a g e | 41

9.4. PROJECT BUDGETING


The project estimated expenses are based on quotations received from the vendors in the first quarter of 2011, and are available for detailed review in Appendix C and D. Appendix I contains a detailed projection for cost estimates. These expense estimates will facilitate the budgeting process required to implement the off-grid solar power solution to 4,000 schools in Tanzania in five years. The cost of maintaining the system until year 10 has also been projected. Assumptions have been made to calculate the estimated expense projections. Any changes to these assumptions may impact the forecasted costs. The sensitivity analysis tool in the accompanying Excel spreadsheet document (Appendices B, F, and I) can be used to determine the impact on project costs with any changes to these assumptions. The cost of the project has been estimated for three different solar power generation capacities: the solution generating the optimal power requirement of 1.768kWh/day; a solution generating a power supply requirement of 5kWh/day; and the solution generating the conservative power requirement of 11.56kWh/day, sufficient for using the Intel Classmate in the schools. The 5 year project cost estimate has been included below for convenience.

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10. REFERENCES
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Browne, P. (2009). Tanzania Suspends Biofuels Investments, New York Times. Retrieved March 2, 2011 from http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/10/14/tanzania-suspends-biofuels-investments Carr, Peter (2011). Tanzania Beyond Tomorrow [Class handout]. Department of Management Sciences, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada. Cruickshank, W., Robert, J. & Silversides, C. (n.d.). Biomass Energy. Retrieved March 21, 2011 from http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.com/index.cfm?PgNm=TCE&Params=A1ARTA0000758 Dasolar Energy (n.d.). Residential Wind Power. Retrieved March 19, 2011 from http://www.dasolar.com/home-wind-power/california Diaf, S., Diaf, D., Belhamel, M., Haddadi, M., Louche, A. (n.d.). A methodology for optimal sizing of autonomous hybrid PV/wind system. Retrieved March 2, 2011 from http://hal.archivesouvertes.fr/docs/00/18/33/57/PDF/diaf_revised.pdf Deployment Guide (n.d.). Retrieved February 5, 2011 from http://wiki.laptop.org/go/Deployment_Guide Efficient Energy Saving (n.d.). Micro Generation Advantage. Retrieved March 2, 2011 from http://www.efficientenergysaving.co.uk/microgenerationadvantage.html Energy Business Daily (2010). Wind Turbine Color May Impact Wildlife Deaths. Retrieved March 21, 2011 from http://energybusinessdaily.com/power/wind-turbine-color-may-impact-wildlife-deaths Ensol Tanzania Limited (n.d.). Welcome to Ensol. Retrieved March 2, 2011 from http://www.ensol.co.tz/question.php?subcat=39 European Commission Joint Research Centre (n.d.). Photovoltaic Geographical Information System Interactive Maps: Africa. Retrieved March 15, 2011 from http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvgis/apps4/pvest.php?lang=en&map=africa European Photovoltaic Energy Association (n.d.). Photovoltaic Energy Frequently Asked Questions. Retrieved March 2, 2011 from http://www.solarcop16.org/uploads/Media%20kit%20%20PV%20FAQs.pdf Gavalda, M. (n.d.). Pros and Cons of Wind Turbines. Retrieved March 21, 2011 from http://ezinearticles.com/?Pros-and-Cons-of-Wind-Turbines&id=1477746 Geothermal Energy Association (2010). Geothermal Energy: International Market Update. Retrieved March 21, 2011 from http://www.geoenergy.org/pdf/reports/GEA_International_Market_Report_Final_May_2010.pdf Green Living Answers (n.d.). Advantages and Disadvantages of Geothermal Energy. Retrieved March 21, 2011 from http://www.greenlivinganswers.com/archives/178 Global Energy Network Institute (n.d.). Wind Energy Potential in AFRICA. Retrieved March 15, 2011 from http://www.geni.org/globalenergy/library/renewable-energy-resources/world/africa/windafrica/index.shtml P a g e | 45

Global Greenhouse Warming.com (2010). Gas vs Coal. Retrieved March 21, 2011 from http://www.globalgreenhouse-warming.com/gas-vs-coal.html Glossary WISPTech (n.d.). Retrieved March 25, 2011 from http://www.wisptech.com/index.php/Glossary#Wireless_Internet_Service_Provider Government of India Ministry of New and Renewable Energy Small Wind Energy and Hybrid Systems Programme (2010). Modified scheme for the programme on Small Wind Energy and Hybrid Systems (SWES) during 2010-11 and 2011-12 reg. Retrieved March 29, 2011 from http://mnre.gov.in/admapprovals/wind-hybrid-system.pdf Harmon, C. (2000). Experience Curves of Photovoltaic Technology. Retrieved March 19, 2011 from http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-00-014.pdf Haq, Z. (n.d.). Biomass for Electricity Generation. Retrieved March 21, 2011 from http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/analysispaper/biomass/pdf/biomass.pdf Henning, R. K., (n.d.). Integrated Rural Development by Utilisation of Jatropha curcas L. (JCL) as Raw Material and as Renewable Energy. Retrieved March 2, 2011 from http://www.jatrophabiodiesel.org/drRKHeaning.php ICT Policy for Basic Eduction (2007). Retrieved March 11, 2011 from http://www.moe.go.tz/pdf/ICT%20Policy%20for%20Basic%20Education.pdf Iringa Case Study For RES Wind & Solar (n.d.). Retrieved April 1, 2011 from http://www.alphaomega.com.gr/public/Example%20Project%20Files/Iringa%20Village%20RES%20Case%20STudy.pdf HeatingOil.com (2009). Worlds Largest Distributed Solar Installation Planned for New Jersey. Accessed March 2, 2011 from http://www.heatingoil.com/blog/worlds-largest-distributed-solar-installationplanned-jersey Hodge, B., Huang, S., & Reklaitis, G. (2010). The Value of Battery Storage and Discharge Logic with Solar Microgeneration. Retrieved March 2, 2010 from http://www.aidic.it/escape20/webpapers/357Huang.pdf House Energy (n.d.). Wind Turbines Location. Accessed March 1, 2011 from http://www.houseenergy.com/Wind/Location.htm Kainkwa, R. (2002). The Status of Wind Energy Development in Tanzania. Physica Scripta. no. T97, pp. 107109. Kainkwa, R.M. and Mwanyika, H.H. (n.d.). INDIGENOUS SMALL SCALE WIND GENERATED ELECTRICITY: A Case Study from Tanzania. Physica Scripta. pp. 8-9. Latzko, L. (n.d.). Is Wind Better Than Solar Energy? Retrieved March 21, 2011 from http://www.ehow.com/about_5046220_wind-better-solar-energy.html Mitchell, Kiley (n.d.). Advantages & Disadvantages of Wave Energy. Retrieved March 21, 2011 from http://www.ehow.com/list_5974568_advantages-_amp_-disadvantages-wave-energy.html P a g e | 46

National Renewable Energy Laboratory (2007). Learning - Solar Energy Basics. Retrieved March 2, 2011 from http://www.nrel.gov/learning/re_solar.html NaturalGas.org (n.d.). Natural Gas and the Environment. Retrieved March 21, 2011 from http://www.naturalgas.org/environment/naturalgas.asp#greenhouse NetHope (n.d.). About Us. Retrieved February 11, 2011 from http://www.nethope.org/about/us Newcombe, Robert (2003). From client to project stakeholders: a stakeholder mapping approach. Construction Management and Economics P.842 Perlin, J. (1999). From Space to Earth (The Story of Solar Electricity). Harvard University Press. Phono Solar (n.d.). Why Solar Energy? Retrieved March 21, 2011 from http://www.phonosolarusa.com/resource-center2/why-solar-energy PREGA National Technical Experts from Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (2005). Solar-Wind-Diesel Hybrid For Power Generation in Small Towns and Villages: A Pre-Feasibility Study Report. Retrieved March 21, 2011 from http://www.adb.org/clean-energy/documents/ban-pfs-solar-wind-diesel-hybrid.pdf Power Planted. (n.d.). LVD 12 & 24; Low Voltage Disconnect for all loads. Retrieved April 2, 2011 from http://www.powerplanted.com/LVD_Datasheet.pdf REUK. (n.d.). LM2940 12V 1A Low Dropout Regulator: Find out how to use an LM2940 to efficiently regulate voltage. Retrieved April 2, 2011 from http://www.reuk.co.uk/LM2940-12V-1A-Low-DropoutRegulator.htm REUK. (n.d.). Low Voltage Battery Disconnect Circuits. Retrieved April 2, 2011 from http://www.reuk.co.uk/Low-Voltage-Battery-Disconnect-Circuits.htm Semberya, D. (2011). Gas prices soar in Tanzania. Retrieved March 21, 2011 from http://www.busiweek.com/11/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=275:gas-prices-soar-intanzania&catid=105:tanzania&Itemid=1315 Slater, T. (2010). Kenya turns to geothermal with new $1.3B, international aid. Retrieved March 21, 2011 from http://venturebeat.com/2010/02/12/kenya-turns-to-geothermal-with-new-1-3b-international-aid/ Solar Systems (n.d.). The Technology. Retrieved March 21, 2011 from http://www.solarsystems.com.au/the_technology.html Tanzania Solar Energy Association (2005). Lighting the Way for Solar Energy. Retrieved March 20, 2011 from http://www.solarmwanza.org/downloadables/tasea.pdf The Engineering Toolbox (n.d.). Wind Power. Retrieved March 20, 2011 from http://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/wind-power-d_1214.html The Republic of Tanzania (1992). The Energy Policy of Tanzania. Retrieved February 14, 2011 from http://www.tzonline.org/pdf/theenergypolicyoftanzania.pdf P a g e | 47

The Tanzania National Website (n.d.). Retrieved March 11, 2011 from http://www.tanzania.go.tz/educationf.html TutorVista.com (n.d.). Power Energy Generation. Retrieved March 21, 2011 from http://www.tutorvista.com/biology/power-energy-generation U.S. Department of Energy (n.d.). Wind and Water Program. Retrieved March 21, 2011 from http://www1.eere.energy.gov/windandhydro/hydro_plant_types.html U.S. Energy Information Administration (n.d.). EIA Energy Kids Solar. Retrieved March 2, 2011 from http://www.eia.doe.gov/kids/energy.cfm?page=solar_home-basics Victron Energy (n.d.). Off-grid market. Retrieved March 21, 2011 from http://www.victronenergy.com/markets/off-grid Wald, M. (2010). Underwater Cable an Alternative to Electrical Towers. Retrieved March 21, 2011 from http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/17/business/energy-environment/17power.html?_r=1 Willetts, Peter (2002). What is a Non-Governmental Organization? Retrieved March 25, 2011 from http://www.staff.city.ac.uk/p.willetts/CS-NTWKS/NGO-ART.HTM Wind Measurement International (n.d.). Operational and Maintenance Costs for Wind Turbines. Accessed March 19, 2011 from http://www.windmeasurementinternational.com/wind-turbines/om-turbines.php Windpoweredgenerators.com (2011). Residential Wind Power Generators versus Solar. Retrieved March 21, 2011 from http://windpoweredgeneratorsonline.com/wind-power-generator-system/residential-windpower-generators-versus-solar/76 Wind Resources (n.d.). The Future of Energy. Retrieved March 25, 2011 from http://energyfuture.wikidot.com/wind-resources

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11. APPENDICES
APPENDIX A: LIST OF TEAM MEMBERS
Atif Aijaz has extensive software development experience as a Programmer Analyst in the Information Technology Services Department at George Brown College of Applied Arts and Technology. Sarah Meghan Arnott is currently works as an information technology instructor and project manager at the College of the North Atlantic Qatar in the Middle East. Wendy Buhlman is a Business Analyst professional with almost a decade of experience in the financial services, retail banking and brokerage industries. Karl Daher is CIO at the Canadian Grain Commission, a federal government agency responsible for regulating the Canadian grain industry. Bandar Darwazeh is a systems analyst with 6 years of experience in the software industry, currently working for RIM. Suheer Drwesh is currently working as Sr. Project Manager at Royal Bank of Canada and has more than 10 years experience in Foreign Aid US AID. She served as Education and Health Program Officer in many developing countries. Matthew Fung brings eight years of progressive professional experience in both Performance and Financial Management and has been employed in various industries such as banking, telecommunications and technology. Yousef Kimiagar is an electrical engineer with more than twenty years of professional engineering and project management experience in variety of engineering fields as urban rail control and signalling systems, electronic fare collection, oil and gas pipeline survey, power transmission and distribution substations. Rahim Lalani is a Project and Team Lead for a Professional Services information technology firm, with over 5 years of project management experience and 9 years of consulting experience. Venugopal Rai is a technical Project Manager overseeing projects and onshore/offshore teams for about 10 years, primarily in the Telecom and Service sectors. Khris Singh brings experience in rural energy projects in British Columbia through his job as a Regional Manager for the Ministry of Regional Economic and Skills Development. He has been involved with supporting clean energy research and program development in the BC Government. Aravanan Sivaloganathan has over 3 years of e-commerce experience in both Canada and the United States. Has a strong background in Applications Development through co-op placements at Canada Revenue Agency, Qualcomm Inc., and Research In Motion.

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Xing Hai (Rody) Suen is a project coordinator working for downstream Lubricant & Specialties for Imperial Oil in Calgary. He has a background in manufacturing from his experience at General Motors, Linamar, and AddisonMckee. Nasir Tanim has extensive business and program analysis experience in the IT industry. As a Business Analyst, he acts as a liaison between Business and IT representatives in delivering solutions to clients around the globe. Anthony Vis is a professional engineer and has extensive experience in product development and the management of these processes. He also brings to the project experience with management of both a primary school and a post secondary institution. Ross Zolotoverkhiy possesses extensive experience in managing various projects in Chemical, Food and Pharmaceutical industries as a functional manager. For the past four years as a Production Manager, he successfully managed waste disposal project that allowed the company to comply with requirements of Ministry of the Environment and avoid costly fines.

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APPENDIX B: POWER REQUIREMENT CALCULATIONS


Refer to the Power Requirements tab in accompanying Microsoft Excel document: NetHope_Sensitivity Analysis.xls.

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APPENDIX C: SOLAR SOLUTION - VENDOR QUOTES


VENDORS CONTACTED
One vendor was contacted to provide a basis for establishing approximate cost estimates for implementing a solar solution to meet the specific requirements of the NetHope initiative. It is anticipated that other vendors will be contacted to refine actual cost estimates as required. Summary of Contacted Vendors SolarSells Vendor 11 Harfield Village, Sundowner, 2164, Gauteng, South Africa Peter Burden Contact Information Phone: 071 686 5086 Fax: +27 11 794 3551 E-mail: info@solarsells.co.za Vendor Comments Quote provided: Solar Solution Quote SolarSells.pdf Quotes are for crystalline technology. Thin film is not used by vendor; thin film needs a larger space for the equivalent amount of watts, and has not been tested over a long period. Vendor builds complete systems and ship in modular form. Vendor does installation work and specified that they can do installations in Tanzania.

ASSUMPTIONS
The total estimated cost of the recommended solar solution uses battery cost estimates outlined in Section 7 instead of those outlined in the SolarSells quote. Therefore, this cost of the solar solution outlined in Table 7.1 of this report was estimated using the total cost quoted by SolarSells, less the cost of the battery components as listed in the quote The panels quoted by SolarSells provide 0.22kW per panel

ADDITIONAL COST CALCULATIONS


With the exception of battery costs, estimates for a solar solution presented in this report are largely based on the quote estimate provided by SolarSells. The SolarSells quote reflects the Conservative power requirement of 11.56kWh as outlined in Section 4 of this report. As such, some cost estimates were derived as follows: Quotes provided by SolarSells are in South African Rand (R), and have been converted to US dollars for inclusion in Table 7.1: Potential Solar Solutions Cost Breakdown using an approximate conversion rate of US$1 = R7 The cost per panel, as quoted by SolarSells, is US$691.43 (R48,400 / 10 = R4,840 ~= US$691.43) The quote provided incorporates the use of 10 panels to provide an estimated power output of 15.4kWh (10 panels * 0.22kW per panel * 7 hours of sunlight = 15.4kWh)

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It is assumed that 2 panels would be used to provide an estimated power output of 3.08kWh (2 panels * 0.22kW * 7 hours of sunlight = 3.08kWh). This model reflects the Optimal power requirement of 1.768kWh as outlined in Section 4 of this report It is assumed that 4 panels would be used to provide an estimated power output of 3.08kWh (4 panels * 0.22kW * 7 hours of sunlight = 6.16kWh). This model reflects the Average power requirement of 1.768kWh as outlined in Section 4 of this report The costs of other components (panel inter-connectors, lugs, free-standing frame, etc) in the solution are derived in a similar fashion

Summary of Additional Cost Calculations Power Number of Output per Requirement Panels panel (kWh) (kW) 11.56 10 0.220 (Conservative) (Average) 4 0.220 1.768 (Optimal) 2 0.220

Sunlight (Hrs/Day) 7 7 7

Power Output (kWh) 15.4 6.16 3.08

Cost per Panel ( US$) 691.43 691.43 691.43

Total Cost of Panels (US$) 6,914.30 2,766 1,383

VENDOR QUOTE
Refer to accompanying PDF document, provided by SolarSells: Solar Solution Quote SolarSells.pdf.

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APPENDIX D: WIND SOLUTION - VENDOR QUOTES


VENDORS CONTACTED
One vendor was contacted to provide a basis for establishing approximate cost estimates for implementing a wind solution to meet the specific requirements of the NetHope initiative. It is anticipated that other vendors will be contacted to refine actual cost estimates as required. Summary of Contacted Vendors Windpower Serengeti Ltd. Vendor Dar es Salaam, Tanzania Roland Valckenborg Contact Information Phone: +255(0)684109511 (Tanzania - Airtel) Phone: +255(0)773447168 (Tanzania - Zantel) E-mail: roland.valckenborg@gmail.com Skype: Roland.Valckenborg www.i-love-windpower.com/Tanzania http://nl.linkedin.com/in/rolandvalckenborg Vendor Comments Quote provided: Wind Solution Quote- Wind Power Serengeti.pdf All prices include installation, but exclude shipment from Dar es Salaam. A furling tail is used for storm-protection to prevent mechanical damage. As well, a dumpload is included that will produce heat in case of storm and full batteries. This protection lasts forever, since the dumped head will radiate into the air, with no time limit. Quote includes a wind assessment cost of $2000 per site. It will provide very detailed information to base the implementation on. First preliminary conclusions can be drawn after about half a year. The best will be a full year measurement, which is included in the price. Consistent hours of peak (greater than 10 m/s windspeed) are very rare in Tanzania. Therefore the efficiency factor is 10% Vendor Contact Information Winafrique Technologies Ltd. 3rd Floor Soin Arcade, Westlands,Westlands Rd, Nairobi, Kenya Kevin Angoro, Engineering Department Phone: +254 20 4453898 GSM: +254 722 736067 CDMA: + 254 20 3521288 E-mail: angoro@winafrique.com Skype: kevin.angoro www.winafrique.com No Quote provided; the vendor indicated that a wind solution meeting the requirements of this project is not practical.

Vendor Comments

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APPENDIX E: TANZANIA WIND MAP


The map of the wind speeds in Tanzania outlines the historical hind speeds in the various regions within Tanzania.

Source102

102

(Iringa Case Study For RES Wind & Solar, n.d.)

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APPENDIX F: SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS


Refer to the Solution Sensitivity Analysis tab in accompanying Microsoft Excel document: NetHope_Sensitivity Analysis.xls.

APPENDIX G: SUMMARY OF RISKS


Refer to the Risk_Opportunity tab in accompanying Microsoft Excel document: NetHope_Risk_Opportunity Identification.xls.

APPENDIX H: EVALUATION MATRIX


Refer to the Evaluation Matrix tab in accompanying Microsoft Excel document: NetHope_Power Solution Evaluation Matrix.xls.

APPENDIX I: PROJECT COST ESTIMATES


Refer to the 5-Year Estimated Expenses, 10-Year Estimated Expenses, Year 6-10 Estimated Expenses tabs in accompanying Microsoft Excel document: NetHope_Sensitivity Analysis.xls.

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