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India vs China vs USA vs World

N. Sasidhar The data given in the following table is taken from The world fact book https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/us.html S.No 1 1a 2 3 3a 4 4a 5 5a 5b 6 6a 6b 7 7a 7b 8 8a 8b 9 10 10a 10b 10c 10d 11 11a Parameter Total Population % of total population Population density Population growth Life expectancy at birth Median age of population Population between 15 to 64 years age Labor force % of total population Share of world labor force Agriculture labor force % of labor force % of world labor force Industrial labor force % of labor force Share of world labor force Services labor force % of labor force Share of world labor force GDP purchase power parity (PPP) GDP- official exchange Multiplication factor to PPP Per capita income Labor productivity Unemployment Agriculture GDP (PPP) Share of Agriculture Units millions % per Sq km % years years % millions % % millions % % millions % % millions % % Trillion US $ Trillion US $ US $ (PPP) US $ (PPP) % Trillion US $ % INDIA 1160 17.10 353 1.41 66.09 25.3 64.3 467.0 40.26 14.67 CHINA 1338 19.71 139 0.66 73.45 34.1 72.1 812.7 60.74 25.52 USA 307 4.52 31 0.98 78.11 36.7 67.0 154.5 50.32 4.85 0.93 0.6 0.078 34.92 22.6 4.96 118.66 76.8 9.22 14.27 14.27 1.00 46482 92362 9.4 0.17 1.2 WORLD 6790 100 46 1.13 66.12 28.4 65.3 3184.0 46.89 100 1194.00 37.5 100 703.66 22.1 100 1286.34 40.4 100 70.21 57.53 1.22 10340 22050 8.7 4.21 6.0 S.No 9 ÷ S.No 10 S.No 9 ÷ S.No 1 S.No 9 ÷ S.No 5 S.No 11a*S.No 9 S.No 7a * S.No 5 Remarks

S.No 5 ÷ S.No 1

243.00 321.00 52.00 20.35 65.38 14.00 9.29 39.5 26.88 221.06 27.2 31.42

S.No 6a * S.No 5

158.78 269.82 34.00 33.2 12.34 20.98 3.548 1.243 2.85 3058 7597 9.5 0.62 17.5 8.767 4.758 1.84 6552 10787 4.3 0.956 10.9

S.No 8a * S.No 5

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11b

11c 12 12a 12b 12c 13 13a 13b 13c

GDP (PPP) Share of world agriculture GDP (PPP) Agriculture labor Productivity Industrial GDP (PPP) Share of Industrial GDP (PPP) Share of world Industrial GDP (PPP) Industrial Productivity Services GDP (PPP) Share of Services GDP (PPP) Share of world services GDP (PPP) Services Productivity

%

14.73

22.7

4

100

US $ (PPP) Trillion US $ % % US $ (PPP) Trillion US $ % % US $ (PPP)

2551 0.71 20.0 3.16 10860 2.22 62.5 4.99 13982

2978 4.261 48.6 18.95 19275 3.55 40.5 7.98 13157

182795 3.13 21.9 13.92 89633 10.97 76.9 24.65 92449

3526 22.48 30.6 100 31947 44.51 63.4 100 34602

S.No 11 ÷ S.No 6 S.No 12a*S.No 9

S.No 12 ÷ S.No 7 S.No 13a*S.No 9

S.No 13 ÷ S.No 8

The following conclusions can be drawn from above data: USA: The USA labor force is declining by its very high median age of its population. Already its labor productivity is very high with little scope of increase in future. In this scenario, zero growth is optimistic growth in a declining labor force but per capita income keeps on increasing favorably in declining population. The agriculture productivity in USA is two times the productivity of other sectors with 0.6% of its labor force. That means people do not prefer agriculture sector or agriculture sector is highly subsidized by other sectors or most of its income may be land lease/rental based. CHINA: It is highly industrialized nation with 19% of world industrial production. Eastern China is the world s biggest factory . The productivity in service and industrial sectors is four to six times the productivity in agriculture sector indicating lesser earnings by farmers. There is very good scope for growth in Service sector which is lagging behind the world average. The agriculture labor force is 39.5% of total labor force. There is good scope to increase labor force in industrial and service sectors by diverting from agriculture sector. Rural population will age faster with migration of fresh labor force to cities to join service and industrial sectors. UNDER DEVELOPED WORLD: 2 of 4

The developing / under developed nations excluding India, Pakistan and Bangladesh will have better standard of living than these countries due to their low population density and higher per capita natural resources availability. INDIA: Indian population is young with lower median age in comparison with populations of developed countries including China and USA. That means it has future potential to increase its labor force whereas USA and China cannot increase its labor force as their populations are aging. India has better potential to enhance its labor force than China in next 10 years from existing 40% to 60% of its population. With this future labor potential, India can show better growth than China in next decade. The lower percentage of labor force (40.26%) in total population with lower median age (25.3 years) & life expectancy indicates lot of unaccounted unemployment / idling labor. Available labor force is not utilized to the full extent for optimum growth. This may be due to substantial percentage of women are house wives whose value addittions are not accounted in the economy. The service sector contribution (62.5%) to its GDP is at par with the global trends. The industrial sector contribution is far behind with 3.16% global share against 17% of world population. Only industrial sector is lagging behind China in labor productivity Indian economy is trapped in a subsistence phase due to its very high population density and ineffective governance. It is not exaggeration to state that poverty is going to prevail longer in India than many under developed countries despite its advancements in science and technology. POST SCRIPT: The geographical locations of all under developed countries are between latitudes N30 to S30 on both sides of equator. There are few exceptions such as Singapore (city state), oil rich countries (Brunei, Middle East), etc. which have attained developed country status. Many of these countries are tropical countries receiving good rain fall with established arable lands and forests to sustain high population density. The populations of these countries soared to further higher levels with the advent of modern medical/health science increasing life expectancy appreciably. Many of these countries (Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, etc) were colonized few centuries ago by Europeans but their economic status despite abundant resourses is not at par with native European countries. The people of these countries are self content using plenty of renewable/surface resources available to them. Whereas Europe, North America and Australia (cold climate countries) which are not endowed with adequate renewable/surface resources, relied on popularizing science and technology which helped mankind to find new resources and methods. More and more adaptation to science and technology improved their living standards beyond their expectations. Tropical countries lagged behind this process but modern health sciences increased the population further ultimately straining the available renewable resources. When the tropical countries face shortage of renewable resources, they are compelled to adopt modern science & technology to improve the living standards. This developmental drift is evident (i.e. China and South Africa are developing faster than Nigeria, Congo and Brazil) from poles to the equator. 3 of 4

In fact the living standards of common people in cold climate countries were not better than tropical countries 100 years back due to shortage of surface resources. Large number of Europeans have migrated permanently to other continents for survival. During 14th century, Europe was populated beyond its sustainability compared to the available surface resources. Unfortunately, Europe suffered from plague endemic during this period which wiped out one third of its population. It took nearly 150 years to recover its population back. During this 150 years period, the fragile surface resources such as forests rejuvenated due to lesser exploitation by the people. Thus the rats which caused the plague endemic in Europe halted the advent of modern science and technology by at least one century. Otherwise we would have been enjoying 22nd century living standards now. The present contributions of science and technology are mainly from research and development (R&D) in material sciences. The future development would be from in depth knowledge of natural sciences (flora and fauna) which will overcome the limitations exhibited by material sciences. In future, the countries which take early lead in devoting its human resources on R&D in natural sciences would be contributing to mankind substantially. The tropical countries are better endowed with biological resources to take up lead in future science and technology development. India is concentrating on software services by deploying most of the talented young people. India should take steps to see that young talented people are deployed to conduct R&D in natural sciences. ------------------------------Notes: This paper was written in the year 2009

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