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" The sole aim of this manual is to reveal a formula to you so that you can make money from the betting exchanges using the football markets. Football used to be dominated by punters betting on trebles, and bookmakers loved it! Those days are over. This manual is all about how you can employ a simple trading formula to win consistently on the betting exchanges. You will be taught how to win money from other punters and operate as a 'wolf' in other words, a shrewd trader. This manual is aimed at those already familiar with how betting exchanges work but if you are a newcomer, a brief introduction is provided in Section 2. We have tried to keep Section 1 concise, putting into context who uses the betting exchanges, and where you should stand in the pecking order. The meat of the manual comes in Section 4 where The 4 System Formula is revealed. This is not theoretical mumbo jumbo but a trading formula that works, backed up with evidence. In fact, Section 5 takes you right to the heart of what it's like making money when we invited one of our contacts to road test the formula. We hope you enjoy this manual.
SECTION 1: SETTING THE SCENE 1.1 Bookmakers and Football Betting Despite all the media coverage on websites and in the newspapers, you'd have expected punters to have as much information on football as journalists and odds compilers. Yet they still end up losing. Why do punters find it so hard to win at football betting? The answer lies in two areas: * Sentimentality - punters bet on emotion. * Mathematics - punters have little, or no, grasp of bookmaking. Sentimentality The majority of punters have a fundamental tendency to bet on emotion and 'gut feeling'. They over-estimate the chance of the team they support winning a game and have a bet on them more out of loyalty than anything else. This is seen even more when patriotism comes to the fore, let's say in a major competition, when huge amounts of bets are placed on England. Betting with the heart as opposed to the head is commonplace, and this is reflected in the profits that bookmakers report from football punters. For some punters, the odds they end up taking on their bets doesn't worry them because their emotion and mindset are based on "if it's going to win, who cares what price I've taken". This kind of attitude is fundamentally flawed, and is the reason why this type of punter, who is betting with fixed-odds bookmakers, can never win over the long-term. Mathematics Following on from the last paragraph, most punters do not have a firm grasp of the way bookmakers 'price up' football matches to their benefit. The bookmakers profit margin, or 'over-round', can be seen by taking the odds of any match. For example, on Saturday 19th February 2005, Ladbrokes were offering the following odds on the Everton v Manchester United FA Cup game: Everton 11/4 Man Utd 4/5 Draw 9/4 Ask most punters to tell you the bookmakers profit margin based on these prices, and you'll be met by a blank stare. The answer is 12.97%.
To calculate the percentage chance of a fractional price, in the case of the Everton home win price of 11/4, simply divide the 11 by the 4 = 2.75, then add on 1, and then divide 100 by 3.75 = 26.66%. The percentages for that game then work out as follows: Everton 26.66% Man Utd 55.55% Draw 30.76% Total 112.97% A perfectly balanced book with no profit margin is 100% so you can see in the above example that the 'over-round' is 12.97%. The relevance of mentioning this here is that as you can see, punters who continue to bet with fixed odds, traditional bookmakers are fighting a losing battle. In fact, even by cherry picking the very best prices with different bookmakers, which is likely to drop the 'over-round' to around 8%, the writing is on the wall, and the cold, hard facts are that nearly every single punter who bets consistently on football will lose over the long-term. Bookmakers have moved with the times by changing their policy of only accepting trebles to offering singles on all games, and updated in-running (in-play) odds on televised games. 1.2 Betting Exchanges and Football Betting Punters have had an alternative for their football betting in the last few years in the shape of person-to-person betting platforms, or betting exchanges as they are more commonly called. The two major ones are Betfair (www.betfair.com) and Betdaq (www.betdaq.com). If you are unfamiliar with how betting exchanges work, please refer to Section 2 of this manual. Punters who have moved across from placing bets with fixed odds bookmakers to utilising the exchanges, have done so for three main reasons: * To achieve better odds on the teams they want to back. * To have the option of acting as a bookmaker, and 'laying' teams that they don't fancy. * To be able to back or lay after kick off - what is known as 'in-play'. The football markets on the exchanges attract lots of punters, and in terms of Betfair, football betting is second only to horse racing when it comes to volumes of 'matched bets'. This trend is accelerating all the time as more and more punters are attracted to the fundamental advantages of exchange betting, and it probably won't be long before football takes over from horse racing as the number one betting medium. In the Everton v Manchester United example in the previous section, the best odds on the home or away win, and the draw, were not with Ladbrokes but with Betfair. Odds comparison sites such as Oddschecker (www.betbrain.com) aid punters in finding which bookmakers or exchanges are offering the best odds. This type of site should be used without hesitation every time you are contemplating placing a football bet. In saying that, it is still surprising the number of punters who stick with one, or a very small group of bookmakers, to place all their bets. The point about punters betting on emotion still holds true for the vast majority of people who use the exchanges for their football betting. The focus of this manual, and The 4 System Formula that we'll come onto later, is all about using the betting exchanges to your advantage. The increasing use of exchanges for football betting is great news for you as a trader because you are only interested in: * High liquidity * Price movements These two factors, brought about by the varying opinions of punters, will give you the opportunities to trade and win. Forget about studying player or team form, wasting endless hours checking out statistics and reading the football press. The way to make money from football (other than as a highly paid professional player!) is to trade on the betting exchanges, and in particular, using the 'in-play' markets where you can create guaranteed profit situations. 1.3 Why Trading works Football punters have tried for years to beat the bookmakers and failed. Trading works because it embraces the fundamental bookmaking concept of risk management ? looking to hedge your position so that you can't lose. Trading seeks to make money from the ignorance, and emotion, of the majority ? for want of a better term, the 'mug punters'.
co. It is no coincidence that a betting exchange is also known as a person-to-person betting platform. similar to a stockbroker. and then look to step in to a market when the time is right. 2. Greed.2 How does a betting exchange operate? With a betting exchange you can choose to do the following: * Take on the role of the bookmaker. Shepherds and Wolves The price movements on the betting exchanges on the outcomes of matches (i. The odds (or prices) available on a betting exchange are shown in decimals. These are the shrewd operators and traders who take advantage of the interaction between shepherds and sheep. offering odds for others to bet on. It works just like a stock exchange . These sources are perceived to be experts. The Sheep This is the group of people that you are going to make money from. a meeting place for traders. such as journalists and tipsters (the shepherds).The beauty of live televised football trading is that you can aim to supplement your income from football.in other words. Whenever these experts advise a bet.e. you go to a bookmaker who offers you odds about the horse/player/team you're interested in. . as nearly all live matches take place in the evenings or at weekends. and this becomes self-reinforcing. who cares what price I've taken. further shortening the odds on offer. 1. rather than traditional bookmakers. These are the punters whose betting is based on greed ('easy money'!). emotion and ignorance are all thrown out of the window for the wolves because they understand how 'mug punters' operate. the shepherds and the wolves. Other shepherds would include tipping services that can influence the market to a position where the outcome becomes 'over bet'. backing where others have offered the odds. The Wolves This is the group of people who you should be aiming to join. home win. A betting exchange makes its money by charging a commission on all winning trades. ignorance and following the accepted wisdom ?'following the crowd'. One of the major shepherds is the Racing Post (www." Coming under the same classification.you are the backer and the bookmaker (licensed under gaming legislation) is the layer. there is also a group of people who will take shorter prices on the betting exchanges rather than seek bigger-priced alternatives with traditional bookmakers. SECTION 2: GETTING STARTED ON THE BETTING EXCHANGES 2.uk) who have a massive following when it comes to football betting. As we said earlier on .racingpost.1 What is a betting exchange? It has always been accepted that if you want to have a bet. It is the job of the wolves to calculate beforehand how the sheep will react to events. the reaction of the sheep is to create a stampede ? they are all looking for odds about the same outcome."if it's going to win. unlike most British-based bookmakers who use fractions. The relationship is simple . Someone who is a regular loser looks to find winners from other sources. and do this around your full-time job. away win or draw) are based on knowing the interaction between the sheep. * Bet as an ordinary punter.4 Sheep. emotion. The Shepherds This is the group of perceived experts who influence the actions of the sheep. A betting exchange doesn't quite work like this because you actually bet against other punters.
betdaq.com Betdaq is still comparatively small by Betfair's standards and at the moment doesn't have the same sort of market liquidity. In order to trade on a betting exchange. The terminology used on betting exchanges is lay (or sell) and back (or buy).betfair.8).com Betfair is the market leading betting exchange at present with turnover in the region of £50 million every week. and open up accounts with them.8 on a betting exchange and a 5/2 chance would read 3.betdaq. it is recommended when trading to be on a fast connection (known in the UK as ADSL or broadband).com is that they offer punters the opportunity to play dual roles. * If you adopt the role of the trader. IMPORTANT: You should refrain from trading on a betting exchange.4 The main betting exchange websites * www.betfair. If you are not a registered user of these sites. we suggest that you open a brand new account separate from all your other previous exchange activity. you are backing and laying at different odds to create profit positions. until you feel totally comfortable and are fully conversant with the terms and conditions. and using the contents of this manual. * If you decide to adopt the role of the punter (or backer) you would place an order under the back column. whereas British-based bookmakers would quote 4/5 (the same as 1. These decimals include your stake as part of your total return so in the first example above. although you wouldn't know this because an individual's identity is not revealed.com: . and that means you could be betting against someone from the other side of the world. £100 win at 1. Commission rates on winning trades vary from 2 to 5% and the more you bet the less commission you pay. Your first visit to one of the above websites can be quite a daunting experience. For best broadband deals click here. Here is an example of a race taken from www. so you would have winnings of £80 plus your original stake of £100 (a total return of £180). 2. If you are already a registered user.5 Trading Principals The main reason behind the rise of betting exchanges such as www.8 returns £180 if your horse/player/team wins. To compensate for this Betdaq offers a lower starting commission rate of 3%.5. You can close down your other account if you want to or keep it running for activities other than trading on football. Their websites can be viewed by a global audience. a 4/5 chance with a bookmaker would read 1. we recommend you click on the links above. Betfair has a strong marketplace and liquidity is good. * If you decide to adopt the role of the bookmaker (or layer) you will in effect be offering a price under the lay column.3 How do I get started? The Internet has been the perfect medium for the growth of the betting exchanges. and the online help options that are available should prove invaluable. The reason we recommend this is because you are likely to be more structured starting again from scratch. 2. 2. To get started you'll therefore need a computer. * www. you will first need to open an account and deposit some money.For example.betfair. phone line and access to the Internet .com and www.
When opening a trade using this method. make sure this risk capital is within your own comfort zone. visit the websites and consult the 'getting started' sections . increase to £42 (your £25 is effectively second in line to the £17). Whilst this section has explained the basics.£40 of your £50 would be 'matched' immediately (in other words. A layer may then come along and be willing to take the £42.INITIAL SUMMARY 3. This would result in the screenshot changing. 5. this is a £1000 liability. In the case of a £2000 starting bank. and on the lay side. and it is money that you do not need to pay for essentials such as your mortgage.6 (4.the effect on the screen would be to see the £17 already underneath the 4. If you decide to operate from this bank size then the following staking is advisable: 3. you would have a confirmed win bet of £40 @ 5. As an example. If you put an order in for let's say £25. our advice is simple. this is a £500 liability. looking at the above screenshot.This screenshot is relatively self-explanatory with the lay prices on the right hand side coloured pink. in which case your 'umatched' order becomes a 'matched' one. The betting exchanges are totally flexible and it's possible to request prices that are better than on the back side of the screen.6) but the remaining £10 would remain 'unmatched' for the time being.When opening a trade using this method. Let's say you wanted a £50 win bet. if you wanted to back Red Trance. 3. You are then effectively asking someone to come along as a layer and 'match' your £10 stake. the potential liability should be set to no more than 25% of your bank.1 Betting Banks The first point to make is that when it comes to funding your betting exchange account in preparation for using The 4 System Formula. the potential liability should be set to no more than 50% of your bank. SECTION 3 . are based on a starting betting bank of £2000. bills etc. and those in the diary (Section 5).6 would appear showing £10 underneath. The examples shown in the next section. To place a trade on a particular horse you click on the relevant coloured square. If you are not already familiar with betting exchanges and don't have your own account(s).6/1).Goal Demander Method 1 .Quick Goals . this would remain 'umatched' .they have basically done the explaining job for us in an excellent fashion. In the case of a £2000 starting bank. you may want to back Barbajuan at 4. this is what would happen .3 System 2 .0 (3/1).2 System 1 . Method 2 . You should always keep your betting and trading activities separate and be prepared for the ultimate worse case scenario which is for your entire betting bank to be lost. For example.0 price. and the back prices on the left hand side coloured blue. The cash values below the prices (referred to as liquidity) indicate the total amount of money you could 'match' at that particular point in time (don't forget that this screenshot is only a snapshot and prices/liquidity are constantly changing). the current best price is 5.
SECTION 4: THE 4 SYSTEM FORMULA The formula is based on the use. the potential liability should be set to no more than 50% of your bank.g. If 1.8.1 System 1 . and the draw would have been laid at 3. The examples shown are taken from actual Betfair data supplied to us. NB: All bookmakers fractional odds quoted in this section are followed by the betting exchange equivalent .Tottenham v Liverpool . this is the cut off point to close out your trade.5) or less. You can use the Trading Calculator software to stake your back part of the trade so that you end up with a winning position no matter what the final outcome of the match.0) then you back the draw for twice the amount of your lay liability. Both the home and away teams need to be a minimum of Evens (2.4 System 3 . The pre-match odds for either the home or away teams is no higher than 4/5 (1. The Methods Method 1 (Risk Profile: 3) * You lay the draw before the kick off if the match odds fit the criteria. you should stake to a percentage of your lower bank figure. The aim is to reduce your liabilities on the trade to around 15% or £15 in every £100.0) with a £200 stake. . * After you back the draw for twice the amount of your lay liability. Example 1 .When opening a trade using this method using a £2000 starting bank. you then look to trade off as soon as possible with a lay at close to 1. Each system has been rated in terms of its risk profile with (1) representing the lowest risk to (5) representing the highest.g. within the Goal Demander: * Method 1 Any live televised match qualifies.8 has not been reached by the 70th minute. * Method 2 Any live televised match qualifies.8) and not less than 1/2 (1.e. * If no team has scored a goal and the match odds for the draw reaches Evens (2. (The advice is to exclude Derby games for Method 2 .35 for £213 to leave a potential loss position of £500 if the game had ended all square (see below).5 System 4 . Levels and The Time Bomb. a £300 stake is advised. Quick Goals. You then back the draw at the bigger odds to secure a profitable trade. * Should a goal be scored by either team the odds on the draw will move higher. You should not be tempted to cherry pick the systems that you will use because the four systems work together to form a complete methodology. Please refer to Section 3 on the staking used for the systems within The 4 System Formula. this is a £1000 liability. In the case of a £2000 starting bank. of four systems . It is strictly based on the pre-match odds available to you. this is a £500 liability. and two sets of criteria.Goal Demander. The match odds for the draw would have fitted the criteria for Method 1 of the Goal Demander.5) to win the match. 3. There are two methods.Levels When opening a trade using this method. and interaction. the potential liability should be set to no more than 25% of your bank. 3. (This would normally happen between the 60th and 66th minute mark). The pre-match odds for the draw must be 5/2 (3.We would recommend that should your starting betting bank reduce in size.Goal Demander (Risk Profile: 3 and 4) The Criteria This is the only system within The 4 System Formula where you open up a trading position before the kick off.5) 4. 5/2 (3. Example: If your lay liability is £100 then you would back the draw at Evens (2.August 14th 2004 The first live game of the 2004-2005 Premiership season was between Tottenham and Liverpool. In the case of a £2000 starting bank.e.The Time Bomb When opening a trade using this method. Manchester United v Manchester City). NOTE .0).
you would have closed the trade by backing the draw at the higher price.000 at 2. leaving a profit on whatever the eventual outcome of the game.0: . This game was a tight affair. the draw would have been backed for double the liability of the original lay ? so ?1. A £60 profit would have been made on this game with this trade . and by the 62nd minute.0). and the draw would have been laid at 3. Again. and shortly after that point. the match odds for the draw had reached Evens (2. The draw would have been backed at 5. use the Trading Calculator to help you.September 11th 2004 The live clash between Aston Villa and Chelsea matched the criteria for Method 1 of the Goal Demander.Method 1 of the Goal Demander.35 to lose no more than £500. Following the method for this trade. Tottenham's Jermain Defoe equalized in the 71st minute and the match finished in a draw.0 with an £140 stake leaving you with a guaranteed profit of £60 if the game finished all square or £73 profit if either Liverpool or Tottenham went on to win the match (see below). when the market had re-established itself and settled down. Example 2 .Aston Villa v Chelsea .Liverpool took the lead in the 38th minute through Djibril Cisse.
use the Trading Calculator to help you. as per the previous screenshot.so a loss of £75. with pre-match odds of 1.0) you will make a loss for Method 1 of the Goal Demander. so you would be looking to reduce those liabilities as quickly as possible. Method 2 (Risk Profile: 4) * You back either the home or away team if they match the criteria prior to kick off. In the screenshot below. and incur a smaller loss if they do not win the game. the first goal of the match was scored before the match odds on the draw had reached Evens (2. Method 1 * Of the 138 live Premiership matches in the 2004-2005 season. then you lay them back to a position where you break even if they win the game.0) in the game. Seven minutes later the odds for the draw shortened to 4/5 (1. Again. The Reasoning This is based on an extensive analysis of the data for the 2004-2005 Premiership season.As you can see from the this screenshot. NOTE . plus the £719 stake that you would collect if either team won the match. as per the previous screenshot. .this is calculated as the £500 profit on the draw. You can use the Trading Calculator software to stake your lay part of the trade so that you end up with a winning position no matter what the final outcome of the match.August 15th 2004 In the first Sunday game of the 2004-2005 Premiership season Arsenal. you would now have significant liabilities if either Aston Villa or Chelsea scored. * If the team you have initially backed has not took the lead by the time they lengthen to Evens (2. A £1000 back stake would have been placed on Arsenal before the kick-off (see below).62. * Should they score the first goal their match odds will shorten. The £68 loss on Aston Villa or Chelsea is calculated as the £787 loss. qualified for Method 2 of the Goal Demander. * Of those 63 matches that qualified. Example 1 .0) in 50 of the matches (79%).Once the match odds for the draw reaches Evens (2. Please refer to Section 3 on the staking used for the systems within The 4 System Formula.80) and you would then have laid the draw to reduce the liabilities on the Aston Villa and Chelsea positions. 63 matches qualified for Method 1 of the Goal Demander System (46%). minus £719 x 0. You then lay them to win the match at the shorter odds to secure a profitable trade.Everton v Arsenal .8 = £575 . the draw would have been laid to a stake of £719 leaving you with a £75 loss on the draw .
The profit positions are £320 if Arsenal win the game or £200 if it ends in a draw or Everton come back and win.0). It remained 0-0 when the match odds for Tottenham reached Evens (2. Example 2 .25 for £1200. Arsenal ran out 4-1 winners and the £320 profit would have been secured. This is the cut off point for this trade. This would have left the position of making no money if Spurs won. The aim is to make at least 20% of your original stake. and a £320 loss if the game finished all-square or Norwich won: .0) for £680. and Tottenham would have been laid back at Evens (2.Arsenal took the lead through Dennis Bergkamp in the 23rd minute and this would have left you in a position to close the trade off securing a profit whatever the eventual outcome of the match. Arsenal would have been laid at 1. to close the trade.Tottenham v Norwich . A £1000 back stake would have been placed at odds of 1. with the profits being skewed towards the team you backed prior to the kick off.68: The game was a tight affair even though Spurs had the best chances.12th Sept 2004 Tottenham entertained Norwich and the home side qualified for Method 2 of the Goal Demander. In the above screenshot.
2 System 2 . A £1200 lay stake would have been placed at 1.Quick Goals (Risk Profile: 1) . the rewards should outweigh the risks over the full course of the season.5) in 13 of those matches (68%). The Reasoning This is based on an extensive analysis of the data for the 2004-2005 Premiership season. 4. That said.Fulham v Manchester United . Example 3 .58 to beat Fulham at Craven Cottage. * The Goal Demander System (both Methods) produced a 77% success rate and a profit of £3370 during the 2004-2005 Premiership season. Method 2 * Of the 138 live Premiership games during the 2004-2005 season. and the trade would have been closed out to leave a healthy profit on Manchester United winning the match.21: Fulham equalized in the 87th minute through Papa Bouba Diop but the system had already secured a healthy profit whatever the final outcome. the first goal was scored by the team that were backed before kick off at odds of between 4/5 (1.8) and 1/2 (1. As we have said. 19 games qualified for Method 2 of the Goal Demander System (14%). Alan Smith opened the scoring for the visitors in the 33rd minute.13th Dec 2004 Manchester United were very short at 1.The match finished 0-0 and a loss of £320 would have been recorded on this match. this is a high-risk trade and losses may occur in individual games over the course of the season. Qualifying for Method 2 of the Goal Demander. * Of those 19 matches that qualified. a £1000 back stake would have been placed pre-kick off at those odds (see below).
Please refer to Section 3 on the staking used for the systems within The 4 System Formula. the odds will shorten on under 2. The Reasoning * A study across a number of seasons by Kevin Pullein of the Racing Post showed that a goal within the first 10 minutes is no more significant than there being more than 2.10% of your trading stake. * This is a low-risk trading system so you are highly likely to be in a position to close the trade at a profit.this is essential because this system involves trading if a goal is scored within the first 10 minutes.5 goals. You should be looking to make around 5% .5 goals at the odds of 2. A goal in the first five minutes means you are likely to get matched at odds of around 2.4 for £310. thus ensuring a good trading position. * The aim is to secure a risk-free profit once the first goal is scored.5 goals whilst the odds on over 2.5 goals if a goal is scored within the first 10 minutes of the match by either the home or away team. Your next aim is to close off the trade as quickly as possible securing a profit on either outcome.5 goals. low-risk trading system.August 22nd 2004 Olof Mellberg gave Aston Villa the lead in the 4th minute of this match and this would have triggered the Quick Goals trade. as soon as the market re-establishes itself and settles down (usually within 2 minutes of the goal being scored).5 goals market on Betfair. * Once you have backed under 2. * This is an in-play trade on how many goals will be scored in the match. WBA did not equalize until the 38th minute and if you had traded out in the 30th minute of the game you would have made the following profit (see below). You ONLY get involved after the first goal is scored. A decrease in odds from 2.38 within five minutes of the first goal is very typical. The Method * To back under 2. 14% of the matches qualified for this system with a 100% success rate.This system is considered a solid. A back stake of £300 would have been placed on under 2.5 to around 2. By using our Trading Calculator software you will be in a good position to secure a trading profit.5 (see below). * Of the 138 live Premiership games during the 2004-2005 season.5 goals will lengthen.5 goals market on Betfair is not as strong as the main match odds market. * By trading in such a tight time span (3-5 minutes after the first goal). the odds of another goal remains exactly the same as before the kick off. you are looking to lay your position within a short time period (3-5 minutes) leaving you with a profit on whatever the outcome of the match in terms of goals. This particular game would have been closed out within a four-minute timeframe by laying under 2. * During the time span quoted (3-5 minutes after the first goal).5. The liquidity in the under/over 2. leaving you a profit of either .the under/over 2. Do not play in this market in the pre-match position. Example .WBA v Aston Villa . . * There are no criteria to the pre-match odds as you are trading in a different in-play market . * It gives you as the trader the opportunity to back at increased odds to those being offered before the kick off. than the actual chance before the kick off. and is very suitable for risk-averse traders. The Criteria * Any live televised match qualifies .5 goals at 2.£16 or £10 (see below). and this is the reason why stakes using this system are reduced accordingly.
* You now have a one-way lay and will lose if the team wins the match. * If there is an equalizing goal then you close out the trade leaving a healthy profit on all results.Yes. * 7% of all live Premiership games in the 2004-05 season qualified for this system. during the 2004-2005 Premiership season you would have made a profit on every game.9 or lower to qualify. even if they match the above criteria. you would have had a 100% success rate. Example 1 . The Reasoning * Teams that are evenly matched tend to produce tight games. they have to be at odds of 1. If the team leading is the away team. The cut off point will be around the 60th minute. you could have made more money by leaving the trade open but we would always advise against this.0) or above. unless a second goal is scored by that team. in this example. and normally at the point of the match.this is essential because this system involves trading if a goal is scored within the first 25 minutes.3 System 3 . you would have had a 100% strike rate. * When a goal is scored within the first 25 minutes. If you traded within a 4-5 minute time span after a first goal had been scored within the first 10 minutes. This action is one of going against the majority of punters who will want to back the team instead. Remember. if the team leading is the home team. and as mentioned. you are in a position to secure a very healthy profit. * When this open lay reaches the position in the match for opening The Time Bomb trade (see next system). * Prior to kick off. * You do not include the big three teams in the Premiership (Chelsea. both teams must be available at Evens (2. and more often than not. However. you should take the loss on this system by backing at the odds you are opening up with The Time Bomb trade. they have to be at odds of 1. the team that takes an early lead will not go on to win the game without conceding at least an equalizer. The advice is to close the trade as quickly as possible securing a small profit. if there is an equalizer. * By laying the team leading the match. A second goal from either team will leave you wide open to make heavy losses.5 or lower to qualify. The Method * To lay the team who scores first if the goal comes before the 25th minute. in the 2004-2005 Premiership season. open lay position. this is meant to be a low-risk trading system where you are looking to quickly make between 5 and 10% of your trading stake.WBA v Aston Villa 22nd Aug 2004 . The Criteria * Any live televised match qualifies . and produced a profit of £5569. The Time Bomb System kicks into play. Arsenal and Manchester United) in this system whether they are playing each other or different opponents. 4. Because of the frequency of equalizing goals based on the criteria for this system.Levels (Risk Profile: 5) This system has the highest risk rating within The 4 System Formula because it is based on a one-way. * The match odds on the team leading the match are unlikely to decrease very much from your opening lay position as the match progresses. it is probably more likely that the overall success rate will be lower in future seasons. * You need to wait until the match odds market re-establishes itself and settles down after the first goal is scored before laying the team leading the match.
not only did that close out Method 1 of the Goal Demander. Aston Villa would have been backed at odds of 2. leaving a minimum profit of £274 on the match. . you skew the profit towards the home team. Aston Villa took the lead in the 4th minute through Olof Mellberg. Muzzy Izzet equalized for Birmingham in the 49th minute.72 with a £450 stake.49.As we mentioned earlier. Bolton would have been laid to the sum of £1020 at 1.47 to lose £500 (see above). Example 2 .Bolton v Birmingham 25th Sept 2004 Bolton took an early lead in the 16th minute through a goal by Radhi Jaidi. Not only did the game qualify for the Quick Goals system but it also qualified for the Levels system as well. It is recommended that when closing out this type of trade. putting you in a very strong position if WBA equalized. Aston Villa would have been laid at 1. giving a liability of £500 (see below). They did in the 38th minute and the trade would have been closed out securing a healthy profit for the game (see below). it would also have presented an opportunity to open up the Levels trade.3 to leave a healthy guaranteed profit (see below). in this match. and the trade would have been closed out by staking £600 at 2.
you open up a live trade by backing that team to win the match. and actions. It also works well on the outsiders who are leading at a certain point in the second half. * The aim is to trade to a position where you will make 5-10% profit on your stake if the team goes on to win the match. * It is important before and during this trade that you are monitoring the developments in the match.the better the trading opportunity could be for this system. then you get involved. the more evenly matched the two teams are .0) will reduce by increments of 0.Tottenham v Liverpool . whereas the odds at less than Evens (2. * Prior to kick off. and is very suitable for risk-averse traders. As a rule.01.35. low-risk trading system.35. As with all trading. Of course.this is essential because this system involves trading at a certain point in the second half of the match. The traders who make the most money are the ones who are the most alert! * In the 2004-05 Premiership season.02. the team you have backed is winning the match and secondly.August 14th 2004 . you can use our Trading Calculator software to guarantee a winning position whatever the final outcome.The Time Bomb (Risk Profile: 1) This system is considered a solid. we recommend looking to make 2% profit on your stake if the game finishes in a draw. 27% of the matches qualified for The Time Bomb system. of other punters. If the game is 0-0 by the 75th minute.4. * You are then looking to lay the team you have backed within a 3 to 4 minutes period.0) will only reduce by 0. it would not be advisable to open up this trade in the 60th to 64 minute zone if the team losing have a corner or free kick. leaving you are trading profit if that team goes on to win the match. * The odds available at the time of opening the trade have to be no lower than 1.35. The Criteria * Any live televised match qualifies .35 or higher. * This is a low-risk trading system so you are highly likely to be in a position to close the trade at a profit. This means a profit can be potentially secured quicker on outsiders. The reason is that any odds over Evens (2. * The 60th to 64th minute zone is a 'tipping point' where the odds on the team winning at that stage of the game start to decrease quite rapidly. the odds of the team currently losing equalizing in this timeframe are extremely high. * If the game is 0-0 when the match reaches the 56th minute. The likely end result will mean the odds on that team winning the match is likely to keep shortening.35 for you to get involved.4 System 4 . * By trading out in such a tight time span (3 to 4 minutes after opening up your trade). With this system you are looking to take advantage of the thinking. if the match odds are 1.i. 6/4 (2. Do not get involved prior to kick off or during the first half. the chances are that team leading will win.e. * If the team leading the game matches the criteria by the time the game reaches a point between the 60th to 64th minutes. You open up a live trade on the team leading if the odds are above 1. * This is an in-play trade on the team that is currently winning the match but you do not get involved until a certain point of the match. Firstly. and the odds on the team who scored that goal are equal to or higher than 1. the clock is ticking towards the end of the game. * If the first goal of the match is scored after the 55th minute and before the 75th minute. * If a team pulls back a goal (after trailing by 2 goals) after the 55th minute and before the 75th minute. you would be looking to back either team that scores the first goal. * The previous comment applies if a team is leading 2-0 and the losing team pulls a goal back between the 55th and 75th minute. and a 100% success rate produced a £2066 profit. Example 1 . the advice is to have your wits about you.5) each . the odds on the team winning the match at that point have to be equal or higher than 1. The Method * The aim is to secure a risk-free profit during the second half of a live match. For example. you will not be getting involved in the match using this system. The Reasoning * Two factors are happening once you have opened up a live position. The reason is that the majority of punters start to think that with 30 minutes and less to go.
5 and both teams were a minimum of Evens (2.Whilst the rest of this manual highlights examples from the 2004-2005 Premiership season. Matt Finnigan. when Tottenham equalized in the 71st minute. A lay stake of £238 was placed on the draw at 3. and a £1020 lay at 1. you could have made more money by leaving the trade open but we would always advise against this. The above screenshot shows that a £1000 back stake on Liverpool would have been placed at 1. In the Liverpool game. this is meant to be a low-risk trading system where you are looking to quickly make between 5 and 10% of your trading stake. April 5th 2005 Two live Champions League quarter final first leg matches were taking place .1 Day 1 . NOTE . For the trader road testing the formula.25. His aim was to see if he could secure a profit on the European matches (not the Premiership) using the formula.36. Liverpool had ticked down to 1. Within four minutes of that action taking place.35 mark.Liverpool v Juventus and Lyon v PSV. 5.In this game. the match odds for Liverpool have stayed the same around the 1.Tuesday. He opened a separate account on Betfair with a starting bank of £2000.31 would have been secured resulting in a guaranteed profit: Incidentally. the odds on Liverpool would have shortened. the majority of the pre-match money was centred on the draw. Liverpool took the lead in the 38th minute (see the second screenshot in Method 1 of the Goal Demander) and between that point and the 60th minute. Remember. Football Select have a network of contacts so we decided to use one of them to road test the formula. The reason for this is because of the 'away team' effect. SECTION 5: THE 4 SYSTEM FORMULA DIARY This section has been included in this manual to give you a better picture of what it's like using The 4 System Formula in actual games.Opening up the trade . it must be stressed that The 4 System Formula can be used on any live televised match where the market goes 'in play'. Sportsvision trader. in this example. as the odds on the draw were less than 3. Yes.0). was given access to the formula and told to see if he could make a profit over a week. Method 1 of the Goal Demander would be triggered. as that seemed the most likely outcome.1 for a liability of £500: Goal Demander (Method 1) .
Lyon just qualified at odds of 4/5 (1. and this gave the trader the perfect opportunity to close the position for a guaranteed profit.7 to a stake of £200 leaving him with a minimum profit of £38: Goal Demander (Method 1) .8) for Method 2 of the Goal Demander system so a £1000 back stake was placed on them: Goal Demander (Method 2) .5 Goals at 2. because a goal was scored within the first 10 minutes. A £300 back stake was placed on under 2.Opening up the trade Liverpool opened the scoring in the 10th minute through Sami Hyypia.14: Quick Goals .Closing out the trade At the same time. He backed the draw at 3. he opened up a trade using the Quick Goals system.Opening up the trade .In the other match.
Lyon was laid at 1. A pull back goal by Cannavaro for Juventus made the scoreline 2-1 in favour of the home side. He therefore needed to close out his Method 2 Goal Demander trade on the French. he had made at least £200 on the Lyon game.the minimum profit of £28. He then opened up a trade on Liverpool to win the match using The Time Bomb system. the trading was not yet over. This lay order remained unmatched for a short period of time but by the 15th minute of the game. he immediately entered a lay order at 1.95 for £330 to secure a guaranteed profit.50 on the Liverpool match .to aim to make 20% profit on your trading stake and to skew the profit towards the team you have backed before the kick off.42 as soon as the market had re-established itself and settled down (the 65th minute): The Time Bomb .50 wasn't bad for 15 minutes 'work'. However. he was now left in a position of a guaranteed profit of £66. He did so to the exact criteria set out in this manual .Closing out the trade At this point.5 Goals plus the minimum profit of £38 on the match odds market. He placed a £1000 back stake at 1.Within seconds of having his £300 back stake matched.Opening up the trade . the odds on under 2.50 on the under 2. He had to wait until the 62nd minute in the Liverpool v Juventus game before getting involved again.32 for £1200 leaving the trader with a guaranteed profit of £200 for the game: Goal Demander (Method 2) . In addition.Closing out the trade He then moved quickly as news filtered through (the trader was not actually watching this game live but instead was keeping his eye on a scorecast service on Sky Sports) that Lyon had taken a 12th minute lead.5 Goals had continued to shorten and the lay order became matched: Quick Goals . A guaranteed profit of £266.
That meant that he would have won £73.Opening up the trade .20 if Liverpool went on to win the match or £38 if Juventus won or £40 if it ended in a draw.Within four minutes of the trade being opened. He placed a lay stake at 1.77 on the home side: Goal Demander (Method 2) .0) to lose no more than £500 (see below). and this again put our trader in a position to open up with Method 1 of the Goal Demander. and our trader placed a £1000 back stake at 1. The screenshot below shows the aggregate profit position taking into account the profit from the previous closed out Goal Demander trade. he was able to close out his position with a healthy profit on Liverpool if they went on to win the match. and a profit of £141. Day 1 . April 5th 2005 Trading Profit / Loss : £341.20 profit before 5% commission 5. The Time Bomb . Goal Demander (Method 1) .2 Day 2 . In the Lyon game. Philip Cocu levelled the match with a goal in the 73rd minute and the match finished 1-1.Tuesday.AC Milan v Inter Milan and Chelsea v Bayern Munich. April 6th 2005 Two live Champions League matches were taking place .34 for £1020.Wednesday. the odds on Chelsea were short enough to qualify for Method 2 of the Goal Demander.Closing out the trade The Liverpool game finished 2-1. leaving a profit of £200. in the AC Milan game. As with the Liverpool v Juventus match the previous night.Opening up the trade In the Chelsea v Bayern Munich match.20 before commission was secured. the draw was very short. He laid the draw at 2/1 (3.
NOTE .5 goals do decrease rather quickly. Goal Demander (Method 2) .Opening up the trade As we have already explained. the odds on under 2.Closing out the trade Chelsea did win the match 4-2 so another £434 was added to his Betfair account. the trader could quickly close his position out to leave a very healthy profit.36 (see below).A single night's successful trading could cover your outlay for this manual. and the trader was able to close out the trade within 5 minutes. it triggered the Quick Goals system. He placed a £320 lay stake at 2. With the early Chelsea goal. and a bigger £434 profit should Chelsea go on to win the game (see below).2 to guarantee a profit (see below).Chelsea took the lead with a quick fire goal after 4 minutes through Joe Cole. Quick Goals .5 goals at 2.28 to guarantee a minimum trading profit of 20% of his stake should the draw or Bayern Munich be the eventual result. and a £300 back stake was placed on under 2.Closing out the trade . Quick Goals . He placed a £1200 lay stake at 1. and following the criteria set out in this manual.
Opening up the trade In the 61st minute the market started to move. AC Milan took the lead on the stroke of half time through a goal by Jaap Stam. A £1020 lay stake was placed at the odds of 1.With a healthy profit secured on the Chelsea game. He wanted a pretty much equal profit distribution whatever the outcome so he backed the draw at 4. The Time Bomb . the trader switched channels to focus on the Milan derby. As the game approached the 60th minute. and the open trade on Method 1 of the Goal Demander could now be closed out for a guaranteed profit.3 for £175 (see below).3. the trader was in a position to open up a trade for The Time Bomb system on AC Milan.Closing out the trade . The Time Bomb . With a profit locked in on the Chelsea game. the trader was in a position to close out his trade leaving a healthy profit if AC Milan went on to win the match.The trader was guaranteed to make at least £220 profit from the Chelsea game from just nine minutes trading activity. FACT .50 if it ended in a draw. This led to the odds on the draw lengthening. That meant that he would have won £64 if AC Milan went on to win the match or £20 if Inter Milan won or £22.37 (see below). The screenshot below shows the aggregate profit position taking into account the profit from the previous closed out Goal Demander trade (see below). and within 4 minutes. Goal Demander (Method 1) .Closing out the trade The match odds did not change much over the half time period and during the first 15 minutes of the second half. the trader was certain of making a profit on the night. A £1000 back stake was placed at the odds of 1.
Opening up the trade The trader had to wait until the 37th minute.Thursday. Once again the pre-match odds on the draw triggered Method 1 of the Goal Demander system. There was just one game to focus on that evening . The trader placed a £170 back stake on the draw at 4.00 profit before 5% commission Cumulative Total for Tuesday and Wednesday Trading Profit / Loss : £934.3 Day 3 .2 (see below). Day 2 .Newcastle v Sporting Lisbon in the last 16 of the UEFA Cup. leaving the trader with a £934. when Alan Shearer opened the scoring for Newcastle. and when the market had re-established itself and settled down. and the draw was laid at 3. Goal Demander (Method 1) . April 6th 2005 Trading Profit / Loss : £593.20 profit before commission over the 2 days. April 7th 2005 We contacted the trader on the morning of Day 3 to see how he had been getting on with the formula. He had this to say: "To be honest this formula is so easy to follow.35 to a maximum liability of £500 (see below). After just two days trading. I am convinced that over the period of a season you will make good profits using this formula.20 profit before 5% commission 5.AC Milan did win the match 2-0 and another profit was secured.Closing out the trade .Wednesday." Matt Finnigan Sportsvision. Goal Demander (Method 1) . I realise that the previous two nights profits are not necessarily the norm but are a reflection of the kind of profits you can quickly make using the criteria set out in the manual. you wouldn't need much knowledge about football or backing and laying to use it. the trade was closed out at a guaranteed profit.
Closing out the trade Newcastle won the game 1-0 and another good night's 'work' was achieved. the trader once again opened up another trade using The Time Bomb system with a £1000 back stake at odds of 1. The Time Bomb . Day 3 . and the trade was closed out to add even more money to the Betfair account.Opening up the trade The odds on Newcastle then shortened over the next five minutes.Thursday. This ended up being on European action instead of the Premiership.31 leaving a healthy profit no matter what the eventual outcome of the game. The Time Bomb . April 7th 2005 Trading Profit / Loss : £90. At that point. Wednesday and Thursday Trading Profit / Loss : £1024.60 profit before 5% commission Cumulative Total for Tuesday.80 profit before 5% commission Overall Diary Summary The aim of the trader was to make money during a week where live televised games were taking place. The screenshot below shows the aggregate profit position taking into account the profit from the previous closed out Goal Demander trade (see below). .A guaranteed profit of over £40 was secured on the match but the match odds on Newcastle remained pretty stable until the 60th minute.37 (see below). Newcastle was laid for£1040 at odds of 1.
and The 4 System Formula. or utilised in any form or by any electronic. you would still have made good profits on the other low-risk trades. reproduced. or in any information storage and retrieval system. without permission in writing from Football Select . by way of trade or otherwise. including photocopying and recording. All trading decisions are made by you. Remember that trading is speculative and only trade with capital that you can afford to lose. This manual is sold subject to the condition that it shall not. and you alone. DISCLAIMER Football Select specifically disclaims any liability. there is a real opportunity to take advantage of the betting exchanges. Even if you exclude the two good profits that came from Method 2 of the Goal Demander system.A very healthy profit was made over the 3 days and this easily covered the outlay that someone would have to make for this manual. re-sold. to supplement your income. With football almost a seven day a week sport. Soccergains are in no way liable for your activities or trading that results from any information given in this manual. hired out or otherwise circulated without the publisher's prior consent in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published and without a similar condition including this condition being imposed on the subsequent purchaser. now known or hereafter invented. . loss or risk incurred as a consequence of the use or misuse. of any information or advice presented in this manual or any of the associated software. and played mainly in the evenings. be lent. The purpose of this manual and associated software is to provide you with information to help you learn to trade using the betting exchanges. mechanical or other means. either directly or indirectly. No part of this manual may be reprinted. must decide if and when to trade. You.
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