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Environmental Management Plan Dam Break Analysis & Disaster Management Plan

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11
DAM BREAK ANALYSIS & DISASTER MANAGEMENT PLAN
11.1 INTRODUCTION

11.1.1 Dam Break Phenomenon The construction of dams in rivers can provide considerable benefits such as the supply of drinking and irrigation water as well as the generation of electric power and flood protection; however the consequences which would result in the event of their failure could be catastrophic. They vary dramatically depending on the extent of the inundation area, the size of the population at risk, and the amount of warning time available. Dam break may be summarized as the partial or catastrophic failure of a dam leading to the uncontrolled release of water. Such an event can have a major impact on the land and communities downstream of the breached structure. A dam break may result in a high flood wave traveling along a valley at quite high speeds. The impact of such a wave on developed areas can be sufficient to destroy infrastructure, such as, roads, railways and bridges, and, to damage buildings. With such destructive force comes an inevitable loss of life, if advance warning and evacuation were not possible. Additional features of such extreme flooding include movement of large amounts of sediment (mud) and debris along with the risk of distributing pollutants from any sources, such as chemical works or mines in the flood risk area. Though, there have been great advancements in design methodologies, failures of dams and water retaining structures may still occur. Failure of the Malpasset concrete dam in France in 1959 led to 433 casualties and eventually prompted the introduction of dam safety legislation into France. In October 1963, 2000 people died in Italy, when a landslide fell into the Vaiont reservoir creating a flood wave some 100 m high that overtopped the dam and flooded into the downstream valley. In July 1985, about 90% of the 300 people living in Stava near the Stave Dam in Italy also died when
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this mine tailing dam failed. More recently, in May 1999, a dam failed in Southern Germany causing 4 deaths and over 1 billion Euro of damage. In Spain 1997, failure of a dam on the Guadalquivir river, not far from Sevilla, caused immense ecological damage from the release of polluted sediments into the river valley. Similarly, in Romania earlier this year, failure of a mine tailings dam released lethal quantities of cyanide into the river system, polluting the environment and a major source of drinking water for both Romania and Hungary. In India, the breaching of Kodaganar Dam (Tamil Nadu) in year 1977 caused a huge loss of property in downstream area. About 2000 people died due to breaching of Machhu II dam (Gujarat) in year 1979 and the flood wave of order of 10 m caused a heavy devastation in Morvi town and near by villages. In year 2005, the failure of Nand Gavan dam in Maharashtra and Pratapura dam in Gujarat caused severe flooding in downstream area. The above instances of dam breaks establish that hazard posed by dams, large and small alike, is very real. As public awareness of these potential hazards grows, and tolerance of catastrophic environmental impact and loss of life reduces, managing and minimizing the risk from individual structures is becoming an essential requirement rather than a management option.

11.1.2 Need for Dam break modeling The first European Law on dam break was introduced in France in 1968 following the earlier Malpasset Dam failure that was responsible for more than 400 injuries. Since then many countries have also established requirements and in others, dam owners have established guidelines for assessment. In India, Risk assessment and disaster management plan has been made a mandatory requirement while submitting application for environmental clearance in respect of river valley projects. Preparation of Emergency Action Plan after detailed dam break study has become a major component of dam safety programme of India. The extreme nature of dam break floods means that flow conditions will far exceed the magnitude of most natural flood events. Under these conditions, flow will behave differently to conditions assumed for normal river flow modelling and areas will be inundated, that are not normally considered. This makes dam break modelling a separate study for the risk management and emergency action plan.

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The objective of dam break modelling or flood routing is to simulate the movement of a dam break flood wave along a valley or indeed any area downstream that would flood as a result of dam failure. The key information required at any point of interest within this flood zone is generally: i) ii) iii) iv) v) Time of first arrival of flood water Peak water level extent of inundation Time of peak water level Depth and velocity of flood water (allowing estimation of damage potential) Duration of flooding The nature, accuracy and format of information produced from a dam break analysis will be influenced by the end application of the data. For example: Emergency Planning To reasonably prepare an emergency plan, it will be necessary for the dam break analysis to provide: i) ii) iii) iv) v) Inundation maps at a scale sufficient to determine the extent of and duration of flooding in relation to people at risk, properties and access routes Identification of structures (bridges etc.) likely to be destroyed Indication of main flow areas (damage potential of flow) Timing of the arrival and peak of the flood wave Identification of features likely to affect mobility / evacuation during and after the event including impact on infrastructure and the deposition and scour of debris and sediment. Development Control Development control will focus mainly on the extent of possible inundation resulting from different failure scenarios. Consideration may also be given to the characteristics of the population at risk.

11.1.3 Present Dam Break Modeling Study The present study for the Lower Siang H.E. Project comprises of: 1. 2. Prediction of outflow hydrograph due to dam breach Routing of dam breach flood hydrograph through the downstream river downstream of the dam
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valley to get the

maximum water level and discharge along with time of travel at different locations of the

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3. 4.

Routing the PMF through the reservoir and downstream valley without dam breach to get the maximum discharge and water level at different locations of the river downstream of the dam Channel routing the PMF through the downstream valley in the virgin condition of Siang river i.e. without Lower Siang dam to get the maximum discharge and water level at different locations of the river downstream of the dam. These studies will give assessment of inundation area due to flood caused by dam breach

over and above the inundation due to the heaviest flood that may occur without dam being constructed.

11.2

DAM BREAK MODELING PROCESS

11.2.1 Introduction to Dam Break Modeling Generally, dam break modeling can be carried out by either i) scaled physical hydraulic models, or ii) mathematical simulation using computer. A modern tool to deal with this problem is the mathematical model, which is most cost effective and reasonably solves the governing flow equations of continuity and momentum by computer simulation. Mathematical modeling of dam breach floods can be carried out by either one dimensional analysis or two dimensional analysis. In one dimensional analysis, the information about the magnitude of flood, i.e., discharge and water levels, variation of these with time and velocity of flow through breach can be had in the direction of flow. In the case of two dimensional analysis, the additional information about the inundated area, variation of surface elevation and velocities in two dimension can also be assessed. One dimensional analysis is generally accepted, when valley is long and narrow and the flood wave characteristics over a large distance from the dam are of main interest. On the other hand, when the valley widens considerably downstream of dam and large area is likely to be flooded, two dimensional analysis is necessary. In the instant case, as the Saing valley is long and the flood wave characteristics over a large distance from the dam are of main interest, one dimensional modeling was adopted.

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11.2.2 Hydrodynamic Modeling The essence of dam break modeling is hydrodynamic modeling, which involves finding solution of two partial differential equations originally derived by Barre De Saint Venant in 1871. The equations are: i. ii. Conservation of mass (continuity) equation (Q/X) + (A + A0) / t - q = 0 Conservation of momentum equation (Q/t) + { (Q2/A)/X } + g A ((h/X ) + Sf + Sc ) = 0 where, Q = discharge; A = active flow area; A0 = inactive storage area; h = water surface elevation; q = lateral outflow; x = distance along waterway; t = time; Sf = friction slope; Sc = expansion contraction slope and g = gravitational acceleration.

11.2.3 Selection of Model Selection of an appropriate model to undertake dam break flood routing is essential to ensure the right balance between modeling accuracy and cost (both in terms of software cost and time spent in developing & running the model). In the instant case, MIKE 11 model developed by Danish Hydraulic Institute has been selected for the present study because of its wide acceptability in India and abroad.

11.2.4 MIKE 11 Model The core of the MIKE 11 system consists of the HD (hydrodynamic) module, which is capable of simulating unsteady flows in a network of open channels. The results of a HD simulation consist of time series of water levels and discharges. MIKE 11 hydrodynamic module is an implicit, finite difference model for unsteady flow computation. The model can describe sub-critical as well

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as supercritical flow conditions through a numerical description, which is altered according to the local flow conditions in time and space. Advanced computational modules are included for description of flow over hydraulic structures, including possibilities to describe structure operation. The formulations can be applied for looped networks and quasi two-dimensional flow simulation on flood plains. The computational scheme is applicable for vertically homogeneous flow conditions extending from steep river flows to tidal influenced tributaries. The following three approaches simulate branches as well as looped systems.
i)

Kinematic wave approach: The flow is calculated from the assumption of balance between the friction and gravity forces. The simplification implies that the Kinematic wave approach can not simulate backwater effects.

ii)

Diffusive wave approach: In addition to the friction and gravity forces, the hydrostatic gradient is included in this description. This allows the user to take downstream boundaries into account, and thus, simulate backwater effects.

iii)

Dynamic wave approach: Using the full momentum equation, including acceleration forces, the user is able to simulate fast transients, tidal flows, etc., in the system. Depending on the type of problem, the appropriate description can be chosen. The dynamic

and diffusive wave descriptions differ from kinematic wave description by being capable of calculating backwater effects. The solution algorithm for the different flow descriptions is identical in the inner programme structure, implying that the user does not have to distinguish between the different computational levels, when running the program. In the instant case, dynamic wave approach was adopted for a better simulation. Hydrodynamic module utilizes a space staggered grid consisting of alternating h and Q points, i.e., points where water levels (h) and discharges (Q) are computed sequentially. Topographic data are entered at the h points, and discharge relations are evaluated at Q points. During simulations, the complete non-linear equations of open channel flow are solved numerically at the grid points at specified time intervals for the given boundary conditions.

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11.2.4.1 Solution technique In order to obtain a stable solution to the finite difference scheme, two conditions viz. (i) Velocity condition and (ii) Courant condition have to be satisfied. (i) Velocity condition: (ii) Courant condition: (V.t/x) 1-2

Cr = [(V+(g.d)).t]/x 10-15

Cr is the Courant number, v is the cross-sectional mean velocity, g is the acceleration due to gravity, d is the mean depth, t is the time step, x is the space step (the distance between adjacent h-points) The most important considerations determining the selection of space and time steps for a particular model application are the expected wave lengths and duration of the wave period, and the ability to adequately resolve the channel topography. The space step length must be chosen ensuring a sufficient number of points along the channel axis to resolve the expected waves. The wavelength is determined by the wave period and the speed of propagation. A second concern is the adequate resolution of rapid changes in topography along the channel axis, and this may require extra grid points. The time step must be selected so that all expected significant wave periods are adequately resolved in time. As the duration of tidal waves is generally shorter than flood waves, the time step of a hydrodynamic model, which simulates tidal flows requires a shorter time step than that used in flood wave computations. The solution to the combined system of equations at each time step is performed in a computational grid consisting of alternative Q-point and h-point, i.e. points where the discharge Q and water level h respectively, are computed at each time step. A typical layout of channel section with computational net is shown in Fig. 11.1.

11.2.4.2 Boundary conditions in general The boundary conditions in MIKE 11 are distinguished between external and internal boundary conditions. Internal boundary conditions are (i) links at nodal points, (ii) structures, (iii) internal inflows, and (iv) wind friction. External boundary conditions may consist of (i) constant values for h or Q, (ii) time varying values for h or Q, and (iii) relation between h and Q. Generally, model boundaries should be chosen at points, where either water level or discharge measurements are available so that the model is used for predictive purposes. It is
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important that the selected boundary locations lie outside the range of influences of any anticipated changes in the hydraulic system. The structure description combines a wide range of elements covering weirs, narrow crosssections, flood plains, reservoirs operations, etc., and which can be regarded as an internal boundary condition. The description is obtained by replacing the momentum equation with an h-Q-h relation or an h-Q relation. The grid to be used to describe a structure will consist of h-point on both side, and a Q-point at the structure. Lateral inflows can also be accommodated in MIKE 11 Hydrodynamic module (HD). The lateral inflows are specified at h-points, and are included in the continuity description.

11.2.4.3 Topographical requirement and discretization MIKE 11 HD is a physical modeling system, and hence, data related to the detailed physical characteristics of the study area must be obtained, if realistic results are to be expected. Topographic data are necessary to provide an adequate geometrical and topographical description of the river system, flood plains, and all important structures. First, the layout of the channel network is determined, and all significant channels identified, including the locations of the main channel confluences and bifurcations. Flood cells subject to inundation must be delimited, and the network of discharge exchange between the flood cells and the main river channels need to be identified. Cross-sections are required at regular intervals along the river. These must extend up to the river bank to encompass any natural or man-made river embankments. In the model schematization, the available cross-sections are placed at h-points. The cross-sections should be representative of the entire channel reach between the adjacent Q-points. Hence, channels which exhibit highly irregular cross-sectional variations require denser grid, and hence, have greater data requirements. The equations of one dimensional flow assume a horizontal water level surface across the channel section. Where flow occurs over wide flood plains, which are separated from the main river channel by natural levees or man made embankments, a purely one dimensional description is no
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longer adequate. The description of such areas, called flood cells, is readily accommodated by MIKE 11 module through linking of the individual cells via an appropriate discharge formulation. For example, where the flood cell boundary constitutes a road or flood embankment, the discharge relation describing the exchange of flows between the cells by overtopping of the embankment is a simple weir formulation. Where flood cells are interconnected by road culverts, the standard culvert formulation of MIKE 11 HD may be used. Longitudinal profiles along the flood cell embankments, which lie directly adjacent to the main river are also required to establish the locations and levels at which over bank spilling may occur. Similar profiles are required along the embankments or a road, which separate the individual flood cells, if over bank spilling is possible. Topographic input for flood cells consists of a flooded area / water level elevation relation, such that the storage characteristics for each cell may be identified. Possible sources of data for the topographical input include contour maps, hydrographic charts, aerial photographs, satellite imagery, etc. However, in the majority of cases, sufficiently detailed information can only be obtained from controlled field surveys. It is essential that all topographical data levels relate to a common fixed reference level, preferably mean sea level. Besides topographic data, hydrometric data are necessary to enable the model to be calibrated against actual events, and thus, provide a basis for verification of the chosen schematization. Hydrometric data are also required at the model boundaries for any subsequent operation of the model. The main types of hydrometric data required are water levels and discharges.

11.2.5 MIKE 11 Model set-up The Dam Break Module in MIKE 11 simulates the outflow hydrograph resulting from the failure of a dam. The model set-up consists of a single or several channels, reservoirs, dam break structures and other auxiliary dam structures such as spillways, bottom outlets etc. As the flood propagation due to the dam break will be of highly unsteady nature, the river course needs to be described accurately through the use of as many cross-sections as possible, particularly where the cross-section is changing rapidly. Further, the cross-sections should extend as far as possible to cover the highest modeled water level, which normally will be in excess of the highest recorded
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flood level. If the modeled water level exceeds the highest level in the cross-section for a particular location, MIKE 11 will extrapolate the processed Data as a vertical wall, and this will give conservative results.

11.2.5.1 River channel set-up The river channel set-up for dam break modeling is the same as for the HD model except that the dam break structure is located in a separate reservoir branch, which contains 3 calculation points, i.e., two h-points and one Q-point. If a spillway is added to the dam, it can be described as a separate branch with 3 calculation points. The dam and spillways are located at a Q-point. The river set-up with a dam and, with dam and spillway are shown in Fig. 11.2 and Fig. 11.3 respectively.

11.2.5.2 Description of reservoir and appurtenant structures a) Reservoir To obtain an accurate description of the reservoir storage characteristics, the reservoir is normally modeled as a single h-point in the model. This will usually correspond to the upstream boundary of the model, where also the inflow hydrograph is also specified. The description of the reservoir storage is entered in the processed data. The surface storage area of the dam is described as a function of the water level and it is entered as additional flooded area. The lowest water level given for the reservoir should be somewhere below the final breach elevation of the dam. The cross-sectional area is set to a large finite value and is used only for calculating the inflow head loss into the breach. The inflow head loss can be calculated as : H = (Vs2 /2g) Ci [1-(As / Ares)] Where, Vs = Velocity through the breach Ci = Inflow head loss coefficient As = Flow area through the breach, and Ares = Cross-sectional area of the reservoir In order to obtain a reasonable head loss description it is only necessary that Ares >> As so that [1-(As /Ares)] = 1. The hydraulic radius is set to any non-zero value.
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The total surface area of the reservoir is calculated as: Atotal = b.2x + Additional flooded area

Since the total surface area is already described by the additional flooded area, the first term should be equal to zero. Therefore, the width b should be set to zero.

b)

Dam At the Q point, where the dam break structure is located, the momentum equation is replaced

by an equation, which describes the flow through the structure. As the momentum equation is not used at the Q point, the x step is of no relevance. The maximum x for the river branch, where the dam is to be placed should, therefore, be greater than the distance between two cross-sections in the reservoir branch, so that no cross-section is interpolated between the actual cross-sections.

c)

Spillways and other structures At the node, where two branches meet (Fig 3) the surface flooded area is taken as the sum of

the individual flooded areas specified at the h-points. Therefore, if the reservoir storage has already been specified at the reservoir h-point, the spillway h-point should not contain any flooded areas. Both the width b, and the additional flooded area should be set to zero and other parameters such as the cross-sectional area and hydraulic radius should be the same as for the reservoir.

11.2.5.3 Boundary conditions for dam break modeling The boundary conditions must be specified at both upstream and downstream limits of the model. The upstream boundary will generally be an inflow into the reservoir at the first reservoir hpoint. The downstream boundary will generally be a stage-discharge relationship at the last cross section of the set up.

11.2.6 Specifications of Dam Break Structures The following information relating to dam break structures need to be specified: (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) Geometrical specifications Breach characteristics Failure moment, and Failure mode
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11.2.6.1 Breach development Earth and Rockfill dams usually do not collapse instantaneously, but they develop breaches, which increase gradually. The failure time may vary between a few minutes up to a few hours, depending on amongst other, the dam geometry and the construction material. The development of the breach determines the breach outflow hydrograph, and an accurate description of the breach development is, therefore, required in near field dam breach studies. In the far-field studies, an accurate flood routing procedure is of more importance, because the outflow variation is rapidly damped out as the flood propagates downstream.

11.2.6.2 Failure modes The dam break module of MIKE 11 allows selection of one of various breach development modes. Either linear failure mechanism or an erosion based formulation may be selected. The linear failure mode assumes a linear increase in the breach dimensions in time between specified limits. In the erosion based mode, the increase in breach dimensions is calculated from the prevailing hydraulic conditions in the breach, and from the given geometrical data. For both modes, limits of the final breach width and level are specified. These may be determined, for example, by the original valley embankments.

a)

Linear failure modes The necessary data required to fully specify a linear dam failure are shown in Fig. 11.4. In

addition, the user specifies the duration of the breach development and whether the failure is to commence at a given time, or is initiated by overtopping of the dam. This facility has applications in simulating the cascading failure of several dams located on the same river.

b)

Erosion based failure The enlargement of the breach in earth fill dams from erosion of the dam core material may

also be determined from sediment transport considerations. Erosion based breach formulations are based on sediment continuity equation for the breach. Numerous sediment transport formulae are available, of which two have been implemented in the breach formulation, being those of EngelundHansen (1967), and Meyer-Peter and Muller (1947). Modeling of the variation of the width of the breach is more difficult to relate to the classical theories of sediment transport. Due to the development of a wall boundary layer along the often very steep side walls of the breach, the
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theories for bed load and suspended load do not apply. As an approximation, the sediment transport at the sloping walls is assumed to be proportional to that in the central part of the breach. The coefficient of proportionality (side erosion index) is of the order of 0.5 1.0.

11.2.7 Initial Conditions Though in many cases, dam failure may occur on a dry river bed downstream of the dam, but such conditions are not possible in MIKE 11, which require a finite depth of water, in order to ensure the continuity of the finite difference algorithm. Therefore, before a dam break is actually simulated, it is necessary to create a steady state hot-start file, which can be used for all subsequent dam break simulation. This file is created by: (i) (ii) (iii) Giving a lateral inflow at the first h-point in the river Setting the inflow into the reservoir to zero, and Specifying the dam break structure to fail by overtopping, ensuring that the dam crest level is greater than the specified reservoir level. Initial conditions (water level and discharge) must be specified in HD parameter file, including the reservoir level, at which the dam break simulation should commence. The set-up should be run until a steady state condition is reached (i.e., Q=constant=lateral inflow up to the downstream boundary).

11.2.8 Dam Break Simulations The dam break simulation may be carried out using the hotstart file generated as mentioned above, specifying the upstream boundary as the inflow hydrograph. The time step depends upon the slope of the river bed and should be selected of the order of 0.5 to 5 minutes according to the slope.

11.3

DESCRIPTION OF THE PROJECT Lower Siang (9 X 300 MW) is lower most project proposed on river Siang, as a part of series

of projects in the Siang basin in Arunachal Pradesh, India. A number of projects have been proposed in the Siang basin with a view to exploit the vast hydro potential. The proposed dam site is situated near Bodak village, about 23km upstream of Pasighat. The project envisages construction of 86m high concrete dam (above river bed level) on Siang River with a gross storage capacity of 1421
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Mcum at FRL 230m and submergence area as 5151 Ha. The reservoir length at FRL is approximately 77.5 km and 28.5 km along main Siang River and Siyom River respectively. The Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) for Siang Lower HE Project is 60115 cumec. The catchment of Siang Lower project lies between latitude 275930 N and 31100 N and 8200 E and 97200 E longitudes. The catchment area upto the proposed dam site of Lower Siang project is about 2,50,594 sq.km, out of which about 2,36,556 sq.km lies in Tibet and the remaining i.e. about 14,038 sq.km lies in India. The catchment plan of river Siang draining in Indian territory is given in Fig. 11.5. The upstream elevation along the dam axis is given in Fig. 11.6.

11.3.1 Salient Features of the Project The salient features of Lower Siang HE Project are given below; I. i) ii) iii) iv) II. i) ii) III. i) ii) iii) iv) IV. i) ii) iii) iv) v) Location State River Dam site Nearest airport Hydrology Catchment area at dam site PMF Reservoir FRL MWL MDDL Gross storage at FRL Concrete Gravity Dam Total length Non-overflow Overflow Top of dam Height of dam above deepest foundation
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Arunachal Pradesh Siang Near Bodak village about 23 km upstream of Pasighat Guwahati 2505946 sq.km 60115 cumec El. 230 m El. 234.40 m El. 220.0m 1421 M Cum 709.49 m 549.49 m 160 m El. 235 m 111 m

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V. i) iii) iii) iv) v) vi) vv)

Spillway Type No. of radial gates Size of each radial gate Crest level of spillway No. of under sluices Size of each sluice radial gate Sill level of radial under sluice gate Gated Ogee Spillway 8 20m (W) x 22.6m (H) EL 208 m 14 7m (W) x 12m (H) EL 168 m

11.4

INPUT DATA AND MODEL SETUP

11.4.1 Input Data Requirement Dam break flood analysis requires a range of data to depict accurately to the extent possible the topography and hydraulic conditions of the river course and dam break phenomenon. The important data required are; (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) (vi) Cross sections of the river from dam site and up to location downstream of the dam to which the study is required Elevation-surface area relationship of the reservoir Rating curve of spillway and sluices Salient features of the all hydraulic structures at the dam site and also in the study reach of the river Design flood hydrograph Stage-discharge relationship at the last river cross section of the study area

(vii) Mannings roughness coefficient for different reaches of the river under study (viii) Rating curve of all the hydraulic structures in the study reach of the river For the present study, the following data has been used;

11.4.1.1 River cross sections For dam break studies of Lower Siang HE Project the Siang river for a length of 51.31 km downstream of the dam site, has been represented in the model by cross sections taken at regular interval varying from 5 km to 10 km. To get the discharge and water level at every 1 km interval the dx maximum in the MIKE11 model setup has been specified as 1000 m. In the case of extreme
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floods the flood water spreads beyond the normal course of the river, where the resistance to flow will be high due to presence of bushes, vegetation etc. Considering the above the Manning's roughness coefficient for the entire study reach of the river has been taken as 0.040.

11.4.1.2 Reservoir and dam The reservoir has been represented in the model by a separate reservoir branch and its elevation-surface area relation, which has been specified at Chainage 0 km of the reservoir branch, is given in Table-11.1. Since the reservoir has been represented by elevation-surface area at chaingae 0 m of the reservoir branch, the length of the reservoir branch can be assumed arbitrarily to any value as the same does not play any role in the calculations performed by MIKE11 model. Further the dam can be placed anywhere in the reservoir branch within the assumed length of reservoir branch of model set up. For the present case the length of the reservoir branch has been assumed as 5000 m. The dam has been placed at Chainage 2500 m of the reservoir branch and dam breach parameters specified therein.

Table-11.1: Elevation-Area relationship of the reservoir


Elevation (m) 149.4 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250 Surface area (sq m) 0 1756400 4221900 8101700 13792200 21693100 28245300 39793600 51159200 62189000 77561000

11.4.1.3 Spillway and Sluices The spillway with 8 radial gates of size 20m (W) x 22.6m (H) each has been represented in the model by its rating curve as given in Table-11.2. The same has been specified at chainage 2500 m of the spillway branch of the model setup. The sluice with 14 radial gates of size 7m (W) x 12m
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(H) each and invert level at EL 168 m has been specified as control structure at chainage 2500 m of sluice branch of model set up. The gate opening for all 14 gates of the sluice has been correlated with the reservoir water level with gates opening varying from 0.1 m to 12 m for reservoir level at EL 230 m (FRL) and EL 234.4 m (MWL) respectively.

Table-11.2 Rating curve of spillway


Reservoir level (m) 208 210 212 214 216 218 220 222 224 226 228 230 232 234 235 Discharge through 8 spillway gates fully opened (cumec) 0 980 2754 5026 7687 10672 13934 17440 21162 25079 29170 33419 37812 42335 44641

11.4.1.4 Probable Maximum Flood Hydrograph (PMF) The probable maximum flood hydrograph which has been used as the upstream boundary of the dam break model set up and applied at chainage 0 km of the reservoir branch is given in Table-11.3.

Table-11.3 : Probable Maximum Flood Hydrograph (PMF)


Time (hour) 0 1 2 Discharge (cumec) 30500 31652 31665 51 52 53 Time (hour) Discharge (cumec) 52591 51088 50374 Time (hour) 102 103 104
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Discharge (cumec) 37348 37187 36974

Time (hour) 153 154 155

Discharge (cumec) 32894 32877 32860

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36760 36466 36318 36171 35998 35826 35611 35504 35396 35282 35167 34994 34908 34821 34718 34615 34478 34409 34340 34265 34190 34095 34048 34001 33933 33865 33806 33751 33696 33641 33586 33530 33473 33417 33388 33360 33310 33262 33213 33188

156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194

32833 32807 32780 32767 32753 32727 32700 32674 32661 32648 32638 32627 32617 32611 32606 32592 32577 32562 32555 32547 32540 32533 32526 32522 32518 32521 32524 32530 32536 32542 32541 32539 32538 32537 32536 32027 31518 31009 30500

Environmental Management Plan Dam Break Analysis & Disaster Management Plan 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 55051 56597 58673 58340 57694 56794 55894 54094 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 39819 39386 39025 38694 38362 38096 37829 37508 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 33163 33121 33078 33036 33015 32994 32961 32927

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11.4.1.5 Downstream boundary For the present case the study reach of the river is about 51.13 km downstream of the Siang Lower dam axis. In order to have no influence of the downstream boundary in the study reach of the river the same has been applied at a location 60 km downstream of the dam site. The downstream boundary (stage-discharge relationship) worked out using Mannings equation is given in Table-11.4.

Table-11.4 Stage-discharge relationship - downstream boundary of MIKE11 model set up


Stage (m) 107.71 108.69 109.67 110.65 111.64 112.62 113.60 114.58 115.56 116.54 117.52 118.51 119.49 120.47 121.45 122.43 123.41 123.74 Discharge (cumec) 0.00 18.83 104.22 309.58 703.76 1376.49 2680.25 4937.07 8452.61 13649.41 20909.84 30795.54 45646.69 67584.30 96556.71 133342.50 178543.29 195388.52

The MIKE11 model set up for the dam break studies is given in Fig.11.7
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11.5

DAM BREAK AND OTHER HYDRODYNAMIC SIMULATIONS

11.5.1 Selection of Dam Breach Parameters Estimation of the dam break flood will depend on time of failure, extent of overtopping before failure, size, shape and time of the breach formation, etc., which are called dam breach parameters. The breach characteristics that are needed as input to the existing dam break models are i) Initial and final breach width; ii) Shape of the breach; iii) Time duration of breach development, and iv) Reservoir level at time of start of breach. The predominant mechanism of breach formation is, to a large extent, dependent on the type of dam and the cause due to which the dam failed. A study of the different dam failures indicate that concrete arch and gravity dams breach by sudden collapse, overturning or sliding away of the structure due to inadequate design or excessive forces that may result from overtopping, earthquakes and deterioration of the abutment or foundation material.

As per the UK Dam Break Guidelines and U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Guidelines, in the case of concrete gravity dams, the breach width should be taken 0.2-0.5 times the crest length of the dam. The breach development time for gravity dam should be about 0.2 hour. The breach depth can been taken corresponding to the relatively weaker locations in the dam such as galleries, sluices etc.

11.5.2 Critical conditions for Dam Break Study The critical condition for a dam break study is when the reservoir is at FRL and design flood hydrograph is impinged. For the Lower Siang HE Project the FRL is at EL 230 m and MWL is at EL 234.4 m. For the reservoir routing it has been assumed that all spillway gates are fully opened when the PMF impinges in the reservoir with initial reservoir level at FRL. All the 14 gates of the sluices have been assumed to open gradually from gate opening of 0.1 m for reservoir level at FRL and gate opening of 12 m for the reservoir level at MWL. The maximum water level reached in the reservoir routing is 233.60 m, which occurs 72 hours after the impingement of PMF. The time series of reservoir level during routing the PMF through the reservoir is given in Fig. 11.8. The PMF, discharge through spillway and sluices is given in Fig. 11.9.

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From the reservoir routing of the PMF it has been concluded that the spillway and sluice capacity is quite adequate to negotiate the PMF safely through the reservoir. Further, since the top of the dam is at El 235 m, no overtopping of the dam will occur. Hence for the hypothetical case of dam break simulation and also to get the maximum dam breach flood peak it would be appropriate to assume the dam breaches when the reservoir level is at EL 233.40 m. Hence the dam has been assumed to breach 72 hours after the impingement of PMF when the reservoir level is at maximum EL of 233.60 m. 11.5.3 Breach Parameters selected for Sensitivity Analysis of Dam Break Simulation Considering the criteria for selection of breach parameters and critical condition for the dam break study as discussed in para 11.5.1 and 11.5.2, two different cases of breach parameters as given in (Table-11.5) have been identified for sensitivity analysis of dam break simulations. In all these two cases, the initial breach elevation has been taken corresponding to the top of dam (EL 235 m). The final bottom elevation of the breach has been taken as 168 m corresponding to invert level of sluices and 194.925 corresponding to invert level of power intake. The breach side slope has been taken as zero as applicable for concrete gravity dam. The time of failure has been taken as 10 minutes for the instantaneous failure of gravity dam. Table-11.5 Breach parameters considered for sensitivity analysis
Case No. Breach Elevation Breach (m) Width (m) Initial Final 235 168 144 Breach Development Time (Minutes) 10 Max. Discharge through breach (cumec) 102861 Remarks

1.

2.

235

194.925

225

10

72652

Four non-overflow blocks of 36 m each with cumulative breach width of 144 m considered to break up to the invert level of sluice at EL 168 m. Non-overflow blocks between left and right spillway with a total width of 225 m considered to break up to invert level of power intake at EL 194.925 m

As case-1 generates the maximum discharge through the breach due to 67 m depth of breaching section, the same has been finalized for detailed outputs of dam break simulation.
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11.5.4 Dam Break Simulation (breach width 144 m, breach depth 67 m, breach development time 10 minutes) Taking the above breach parameter and critical condition of para 11.5.2 the dam break simulation has been simulated. The time base of PMF used for hydrodynamic simulations in MIKE11 model set up varies from 1-8-2009 00:00:00 hours to 9-8-2009 02:00:00 hours. In the simulation the dam has been assumed to breach at 4-8-2009 00:00:00 hours i.e. 72 hours after the impingement of the PMF, to get the maximum discharge through breach. The discharge through the breach in this case is 102861 cumec, which occurs on 4-8-2009 at 00:10:00 hours i.e. 10 minutes after the start of breaching. The combined discharge of the breach, spillway and sluices just downstream of the dam has been calculated as 137304 cumec which gets attenuated to 114035 cumec at about 50 km downstream of the dam. The time series of discharge through breach is given in Fig. 11.10. The dam break flood hydrograph just downstream of dam comprising of cumulative discharge of breach, spillway and sluices is given in Fig. 11.11. RESERVOIR 2500 is the breach location as per MIKE11 model set up. The peak of the dam breach flood just down stream of the dam is 137304 cumec which includes about 60000 cumec due to PMF. Hence the contribution of reservoir storage in the dam breach flood peak is about 77000 cumec. The maximum discharge, water level and their time of occurrence at different locations of the Siang river downstream of the dam are given in Table 11.6 and 11.7 respectively. From the Table-11.8, it can be seen that the flood peak of 137304 cumec gets attenuated to 114035 cumec during its translation for about 50 km reach of the river. The travel time of dam break flood for this reach is about 3 hours and the velocity of the flood wave is about 17 km/h. Table-11.6 : Maximum discharge due to dam breach flood (breach width 144 m and breach depth 67 m)
Note : SIANG 494.00 means location of Siang river 494 m d/s of Siang Lower dam. The same way all other locations should be read. The breach has been assumed to start on 4-8-2009 at 00:00:00 hours Chainage (m) d/s of Siang Maximum discharge (cumecs) Lower dam SIANG 494.00 137304 SIANG 1482.00 SIANG 2470.00 137076 136815
172

Time of occurrence (Date:hours:Minutes:seconds) 4-8-2009 00:39:59 4-8-2009 00:39:59 4-8-2009 00:39:59

Environmental Management Plan Dam Break Analysis & Disaster Management Plan SIANG 3458.00 SIANG 4446.00 SIANG 5381.67 SIANG 6265.00 SIANG 7148.33 SIANG 8031.67 SIANG 8915.00 SIANG 9798.33 SIANG 10700.83 SIANG 11622.50 SIANG 12544.17 SIANG 13465.83 SIANG 14387.50 SIANG 15309.17 SIANG 16207.00 SIANG 17081.00 SIANG 17955.00 SIANG 18829.00 SIANG 19703.00 SIANG 20635.00 SIANG 21625.00 SIANG 22615.00 SIANG 23605.00 SIANG 24595.00 SIANG 25563.89 SIANG 26511.67 SIANG 27459.45 SIANG 28407.22 SIANG 29355.00 SIANG 30302.78 SIANG 31250.55 SIANG 32198.33 SIANG 33146.11 SIANG 34100.50 136567 136284 136023 135797 135668 135687 135624 135634 135628 135462 135524 135392 135112 135083 135151 134703 134798 134738 134615 134351 133844 133337 133116 132612 131790 131417 130870 129993 129704 129087 128643 128309 127661 127439
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4-8-2009 00:39:59 4-8-2009 00:39:59 4-8-2009 00:39:59 4-8-2009 00:39:59 4-8-2009 00:50:00 4-8-2009 00:50:00 4-8-2009 00:50:00 4-8-2009 00:50:00 4-8-2009 00:50:00 4-8-2009 00:50:00 4-8-2009 00:50:00 4-8-2009 00:50:00 4-8-2009 00:50:00 4-8-2009 00:50:00 4-8-2009 00:50:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:09:59 4-8-2009 01:09:59 4-8-2009 01:09:59 4-8-2009 01:09:59 4-8-2009 01:20:00 4-8-2009 01:20:00 4-8-2009 01:30:00 4-8-2009 01:30:00 4-8-2009 01:30:00 4-8-2009 01:39:59 4-8-2009 01:39:59 4-8-2009 01:50:00 4-8-2009 01:50:00

Environmental Management Plan Dam Break Analysis & Disaster Management Plan SIANG 35061.50 SIANG 36022.50 SIANG 36983.50 SIANG 37944.50 SIANG 38905.50 SIANG 39866.50 SIANG 40827.50 SIANG 41788.50 SIANG 42749.50 SIANG 43678.89 SIANG 44576.67 SIANG 45474.45 SIANG 46372.22 SIANG 47270.00 SIANG 48167.78 SIANG 49065.55 SIANG 49963.33 SIANG 50861.11 126784 126464 125870 125455 124859 124392 123689 122928 121623 120613 119567 118560 117746 116838 116119 115427 114644 114035 4-8-2009 01:50:00 4-8-2009 02:00:00 4-8-2009 02:00:00 4-8-2009 02:09:59 4-8-2009 02:09:59 4-8-2009 02:20:00 4-8-2009 02:20:00 4-8-2009 02:30:00 4-8-2009 02:39:59 4-8-2009 02:39:59 4-8-2009 02:50:00 4-8-2009 02:50:00 4-8-2009 03:00:00 4-8-2009 03:09:59 4-8-2009 03:09:59 4-8-2009 03:20:00 4-8-2009 03:20:00 4-8-2009 03:30:00

CISMHE

Note : The dates shown are relative dates as used in MIKE11 model set up.

Table-11.7 Maximum water level due to dam breach flood (breach width 144 m and breach depth 67 m)
Note : SIANG 988.00 means location of Siang river 988 m d/s of Siang Lower dam. The same way all other locations should be read. * Cross sections of Siang river interpolated by MIKE11 model Chainage (m) d/s of Siang Lower dam SIANG 0.00 SIANG 988.00 SIANG 1976.00 SIANG 2964.00 SIANG 3952.00 SIANG 4940.00 149.40 * * * * 158.83 Bed level (m) Maximum level (m) 210.71 209.78 208.73 207.66 206.03 202.83 water Time of occurrence (Date:hours:Minutes:seconds) 4-8-2009 00:50:00 4-8-2009 00:50:00 4-8-2009 00:50:00 4-8-2009 00:50:00 4-8-2009 00:50:00 4-8-2009 00:50:00

174

Environmental Management Plan Dam Break Analysis & Disaster Management Plan SIANG 5823.33 SIANG 6706.67 SIANG 7590.00 SIANG 8473.33 SIANG 9356.67 SIANG 10240.00 SIANG 11161.67 SIANG 12083.33 SIANG 13005.00 SIANG 13926.67 SIANG 14848.33 SIANG 15770.00 SIANG 16644.00 SIANG 17518.00 SIANG 18392.00 SIANG 19266.00 SIANG 20140.00 SIANG 21130.00 SIANG 22120.00 SIANG 23110.00 SIANG 24100.00 SIANG 25090.00 SIANG 26037.78 SIANG 26985.55 SIANG 27933.33 SIANG 28881.11 SIANG 29828.89 SIANG 30776.67 SIANG 31724.45 SIANG 32672.22 SIANG 33620.00 SIANG 34581.00 SIANG 35542.00 SIANG 36503.00 * * * * * 140.76 * * * * * 149.96 * * * * 145.67 * * * * 138.19 * * * * * * * * 137.66 * * * 200.68 198.48 196.24 193.94 191.74 189.56 188.54 187.72 186.58 184.97 182.83 179.99 177.78 175.87 174.16 172.60 171.21 169.36 167.48 165.61 163.90 162.58 161.25 159.90 158.51 157.08 155.62 154.12 152.57 151.01 149.52 147.99 146.47 144.94
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4-8-2009 00:50:00 4-8-2009 00:50:00 4-8-2009 00:50:00 4-8-2009 00:50:00 4-8-2009 00:50:00 4-8-2009 00:50:00 4-8-2009 00:50:00 4-8-2009 00:50:00 4-8-2009 00:50:00 4-8-2009 00:50:00 4-8-2009 00:50:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:09:59 4-8-2009 01:09:59 4-8-2009 01:09:59 4-8-2009 01:09:59 4-8-2009 01:20:00 4-8-2009 01:20:00 4-8-2009 01:20:00 4-8-2009 01:30:00 4-8-2009 01:30:00 4-8-2009 01:30:00 4-8-2009 01:39:59 4-8-2009 01:39:59 4-8-2009 01:39:59 4-8-2009 01:50:00 4-8-2009 01:50:00 4-8-2009 02:00:00 4-8-2009 02:00:00 4-8-2009 02:09:59

Environmental Management Plan Dam Break Analysis & Disaster Management Plan SIANG 37464.00 SIANG 38425.00 SIANG 39386.00 SIANG 40347.00 SIANG 41308.00 SIANG 42269.00 SIANG 43230.00 SIANG 44127.78 SIANG 45025.55 SIANG 45923.33 SIANG 46821.11 SIANG 47718.89 SIANG 48616.67 SIANG 49514.45 SIANG 50412.22 SIANG 51310.00 * * * * * * 121.97 * * * * * * * * 114.71 143.41 141.89 140.37 138.86 137.43 136.20 135.32 134.60 133.88 133.16 132.45 131.73 131.01 130.29 129.56 128.83 4-8-2009 02:09:59 4-8-2009 02:20:00 4-8-2009 02:20:00 4-8-2009 02:30:00 4-8-2009 02:39:59 4-8-2009 02:50:00 4-8-2009 02:50:00 4-8-2009 03:00:00 4-8-2009 03:09:59 4-8-2009 03:09:59 4-8-2009 03:20:00 4-8-2009 03:20:00 4-8-2009 03:30:00 4-8-2009 03:39:59 4-8-2009 03:39:59 4-8-2009 03:50:00

CISMHE

Note : The dates shown are relative dates as used in MIKE11 model set up.

11.5.5

Maximum discharge and water level in SIANG river due to occurrence of PMF without dam breach

To know the maximum discharge and water levels at different locations of Siang river downstream of the dam due to occurrence of PMF, when reservoir is at FRL, but without any dam breach, the simulation has been simulated in MIKE11 model. The maximum discharge and water level obtained at the different locations along the river reach is given in Table-11.8 and 11.9 respectively. The velocity of flood wave in this case is also about 17 km/h.

Table 11.8 Maximum discharge due to occurrence of PMF without dam breach
The PMF has been impinged in to the reservoir on 1-8-2009 at 00:00:00 hours. The PMF peak is 60115 cumec occurring on 3-8-2009 21:00:00 hours as per MIKE11 simulation time. Chainage (m) d/s of Siang dam SIANG 494.00 SIANG 1482.00 SIANG 2470.00 Lower Maximum discharge (cumecs) 58172 58171 58169
176

Time of occurrence (Date:hours:Minutes:seconds) 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00

Environmental Management Plan Dam Break Analysis & Disaster Management Plan SIANG 3458.00 SIANG 4446.00 SIANG 5381.67 SIANG 6265.00 SIANG 7148.33 SIANG 8031.67 SIANG 8915.00 SIANG 9798.33 SIANG 10700.83 SIANG 11622.50 SIANG 12544.17 SIANG 13465.83 SIANG 14387.50 SIANG 15309.17 SIANG 16207.00 SIANG 17081.00 SIANG 17955.00 SIANG 18829.00 SIANG 19703.00 SIANG 20635.00 SIANG 21625.00 SIANG 22615.00 SIANG 23605.00 SIANG 24595.00 SIANG 25563.89 SIANG 26511.67 SIANG 27459.45 SIANG 28407.22 SIANG 29355.00 SIANG 30302.78 SIANG 31250.55 SIANG 32198.33 SIANG 33146.11 SIANG 34100.50 58168 58167 58166 58165 58163 58162 58161 58159 58158 58156 58154 58152 58150 58148 58146 58143 58139 58134 58128 58119 58110 58112 58119 58124 58130 58134 58138 58140 58140 58139 58136 58131 58123 58111
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4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00

Environmental Management Plan Dam Break Analysis & Disaster Management Plan SIANG 35061.50 SIANG 36022.50 SIANG 36983.50 SIANG 37944.50 SIANG 38905.50 SIANG 39866.50 SIANG 40827.50 SIANG 41788.50 SIANG 42749.50 SIANG 43678.89 SIANG 44576.67 SIANG 45474.45 SIANG 46372.22 SIANG 47270.00 SIANG 48167.78 SIANG 49065.55 SIANG 49963.33 SIANG 50861.11 58096 58077 58077 58089 58097 58103 58105 58102 58093 58076 58053 58024 57990 58000 58004 58003 57997 57984 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 02:00:00 4-8-2009 02:00:00 4-8-2009 02:00:00 4-8-2009 02:00:00 4-8-2009 02:00:00 4-8-2009 02:00:00 4-8-2009 02:00:00 4-8-2009 02:00:00 4-8-2009 02:00:00 4-8-2009 02:00:00 4-8-2009 03:00:00 4-8-2009 03:00:00 4-8-2009 03:00:00 4-8-2009 03:00:00 4-8-2009 03:00:00 4-8-2009 03:00:00

CISMHE

Note : The dates shown are relative dates as used in MIKE11 model set up.

Table-11.9 Maximum water level due to occurrence of PMF without dam breach
Note : SIANG 988.00 means location of Siang river 988 m d/s of Lower Siang dam. The same way all other locations should be read. * Cross sections of Siang river interpolated by MIKE11 model Chainage (m) d/s of Lower Siang dam SIANG 0.00 SIANG 988.00 SIANG 1976.00 SIANG 2964.00 SIANG 3952.00 SIANG 4940.00 SIANG 5823.33 SIANG 6706.67 Bed level (m) 149.40 * * * * 158.83 * * Maximum level (m) 194.90 194.23 193.41 192.37 190.87 188.33 186.36 184.49
178

water Time of occurrence (Date:hours:Minutes:seconds) 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00

Environmental Management Plan Dam Break Analysis & Disaster Management Plan SIANG 7590.00 SIANG 8473.33 SIANG 9356.67 SIANG 10240.00 SIANG 11161.67 SIANG 12083.33 SIANG 13005.00 SIANG 13926.67 SIANG 14848.33 SIANG 15770.00 SIANG 16644.00 SIANG 17518.00 SIANG 18392.00 SIANG 19266.00 SIANG 20140.00 SIANG 21130.00 SIANG 22120.00 SIANG 23110.00 SIANG 24100.00 SIANG 25090.00 SIANG 26037.78 SIANG 26985.55 SIANG 27933.33 SIANG 28881.11 SIANG 29828.89 SIANG 30776.67 SIANG 31724.45 SIANG 32672.22 SIANG 33620.00 SIANG 34581.00 SIANG 35542.00 SIANG 36503.00 SIANG 37464.00 SIANG 38425.00 * * * 140.76 * * * * * 149.96 * * * * 145.67 * * * * 138.19 * * * * * * * * 137.66 * * * * * 182.74 181.10 179.58 178.16 177.92 177.37 176.61 175.64 174.33 172.40 170.85 169.38 167.98 166.65 165.40 163.86 162.34 160.84 159.43 158.36 157.28 156.17 155.03 153.85 152.64 151.39 150.08 148.73 147.32 145.78 144.24 142.70 141.15 139.61
179

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4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 02:00:00 4-8-2009 02:00:00 4-8-2009 02:00:00 4-8-2009 02:00:00

Environmental Management Plan Dam Break Analysis & Disaster Management Plan SIANG 39386.00 SIANG 40347.00 SIANG 41308.00 SIANG 42269.00 SIANG 43230.00 SIANG 44127.78 SIANG 45025.55 SIANG 45923.33 SIANG 46821.11 SIANG 47718.89 SIANG 48616.67 SIANG 49514.45 SIANG 50412.22 SIANG 51310.00 * * * * 121.97 * * * * * * * * 114.71 138.07 136.54 135.09 133.86 133.01 132.34 131.68 131.03 130.38 129.73 129.08 128.42 127.74 127.03 4-8-2009 02:00:00 4-8-2009 02:00:00 4-8-2009 02:00:00 4-8-2009 02:00:00 4-8-2009 02:00:00 4-8-2009 02:00:00 4-8-2009 03:00:00 4-8-2009 03:00:00 4-8-2009 03:00:00 4-8-2009 03:00:00 4-8-2009 03:00:00 4-8-2009 03:00:00 4-8-2009 03:00:00 4-8-2009 03:00:00

CISMHE

Note : The dates shown are relative dates as used in MIKE11 model set up.

11.5.6

Maximum discharge and water level in the virgin condition of the SIANG river due to occurrence of PMF

To know the maximum discharge and water level due to occurrence of PMF in the virgin condition of the Siang river i.e. without Lower Siang dam, the necessary simulation has been run. In this case, the PMF has been impinged at chainage 0 of the Siang river (just d/s of dam site) without considering the Lower Siang dam. The maximum discharge and water level obtained at the different locations along the river reach is given in Table 11.10 and 11.11 respectively. The velocity of flood wave for this case is about 13 km/h.

Table 11.10 Maximum discharge due to occurrence of PMF in virgin river condition
The PMF has been impinged in to the reservoir on 1-8-2009 at 00:00:00 hours. The PMF peak is 60115 cumec occurring on 3-8-2009 21:00:00 hours as per MIKE11 simulation time. Chainage (m) d/s of Siang Maximum discharge (cumecs) Lower dam SIANG 494.00 60088 SIANG 1482.00 SIANG 2470.00 SIANG 3458.00 60035 59985 59936
180

Time of occurrence (Date:hours:Minutes:seconds) 3-8-2009 21:00:00 3-8-2009 21:00:00 3-8-2009 21:00:00 3-8-2009 21:00:00

Environmental Management Plan Dam Break Analysis & Disaster Management Plan SIANG 4446.00 SIANG 5381.67 SIANG 6265.00 SIANG 7148.33 SIANG 8031.67 SIANG 8915.00 SIANG 9798.33 SIANG 10700.83 SIANG 11622.50 SIANG 12544.17 SIANG 13465.83 SIANG 14387.50 SIANG 15309.17 SIANG 16207.00 SIANG 17081.00 SIANG 17955.00 SIANG 18829.00 SIANG 19703.00 SIANG 20635.00 SIANG 21625.00 SIANG 22615.00 SIANG 23605.00 SIANG 24595.00 SIANG 25563.89 SIANG 26511.67 SIANG 27459.45 SIANG 28407.22 SIANG 29355.00 SIANG 30302.78 SIANG 31250.55 SIANG 32198.33 SIANG 33146.11 SIANG 34100.50 SIANG 35061.50 59891 59852 59815 59779 59743 59723 59729 59735 59740 59748 59756 59763 59771 59777 59785 59794 59804 59815 59827 59838 59848 59855 59858 59856 59849 59834 59811 59778 59733 59674 59623 59655 59684 59706
181

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3-8-2009 21:00:00 3-8-2009 21:00:00 3-8-2009 21:00:00 3-8-2009 21:00:00 3-8-2009 21:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 23:00:00 3-8-2009 23:00:00 3-8-2009 23:00:00 3-8-2009 23:00:00

Environmental Management Plan Dam Break Analysis & Disaster Management Plan SIANG 36022.50 SIANG 36983.50 SIANG 37944.50 SIANG 38905.50 SIANG 39866.50 SIANG 40827.50 SIANG 41788.50 SIANG 42749.50 SIANG 43678.89 SIANG 44576.67 SIANG 45474.45 SIANG 46372.22 SIANG 47270.00 SIANG 48167.78 SIANG 49065.55 SIANG 49963.33 SIANG 50861.11 59719 59723 59716 59699 59670 59628 59565 59505 59522 59528 59521 59501 59467 59418 59353 59273 59291 3-8-2009 23:00:00 3-8-2009 23:00:00 3-8-2009 23:00:00 3-8-2009 23:00:00 3-8-2009 23:00:00 3-8-2009 23:00:00 3-8-2009 23:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00

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Note : The dates shown are relative dates as used in MIKE11 model set up.

Table 11.11 Maximum water due to occurrence of PMF in virgin river condition
* Cross sections of Siang river interpolated by MIKE11 model Chainage (m) d/s of Bed level (m) Lower Siang dam SIANG 0.00 149.40 SIANG 988.00 SIANG 1976.00 SIANG 2964.00 SIANG 3952.00 SIANG 4940.00 SIANG 5823.33 SIANG 6706.67 SIANG 7590.00 SIANG 8473.33 SIANG 9356.67 * * * * 158.83 * * * * * Maximum level (m) 195.37 194.68 193.85 192.80 191.28 188.72 186.74 184.86 183.10 181.45 179.90
182

water

Time of occurrence (Date:hours:Minutes:seconds) 3-8-2009 21:00:00 3-8-2009 21:00:00 3-8-2009 21:00:00 3-8-2009 21:00:00 3-8-2009 21:00:00 3-8-2009 21:00:00 3-8-2009 21:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00

Environmental Management Plan Dam Break Analysis & Disaster Management Plan SIANG 10240.00 SIANG 11161.67 SIANG 12083.33 SIANG 13005.00 SIANG 13926.67 SIANG 14848.33 SIANG 15770.00 SIANG 16644.00 SIANG 17518.00 SIANG 18392.00 SIANG 19266.00 SIANG 20140.00 SIANG 21130.00 SIANG 22120.00 SIANG 23110.00 SIANG 24100.00 SIANG 25090.00 SIANG 26037.78 SIANG 26985.55 SIANG 27933.33 SIANG 28881.11 SIANG 29828.89 SIANG 30776.67 SIANG 31724.45 SIANG 32672.22 SIANG 33620.00 SIANG 34581.00 SIANG 35542.00 SIANG 36503.00 SIANG 37464.00 SIANG 38425.00 SIANG 39386.00 SIANG 40347.00 SIANG 41308.00 140.76 * * * * * 149.96 * * * * 145.67 * * * * 138.19 * * * * * * * * 137.66 * * * * * * * * 178.45 178.21 177.65 176.89 175.90 174.57 172.61 171.05 169.57 168.17 166.84 165.59 164.04 162.51 160.99 159.57 158.49 157.40 156.29 155.14 153.95 152.73 151.47 150.16 148.80 147.38 145.85 144.31 142.77 141.23 139.68 138.14 136.62 135.16
183

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3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 22:00:00 3-8-2009 23:00:00 3-8-2009 23:00:00 3-8-2009 23:00:00 3-8-2009 23:00:00 3-8-2009 23:00:00 3-8-2009 23:00:00 3-8-2009 23:00:00 3-8-2009 23:00:00 3-8-2009 23:00:00 3-8-2009 23:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00

Environmental Management Plan Dam Break Analysis & Disaster Management Plan SIANG 42269.00 SIANG 43230.00 SIANG 44127.78 SIANG 45025.55 SIANG 45923.33 SIANG 46821.11 SIANG 47718.89 SIANG 48616.67 SIANG 49514.45 SIANG 50412.22 SIANG 51310.00 * 121.97 * * * * * * * * 114.71 133.93 133.09 132.42 131.76 131.10 130.45 129.79 129.14 128.48 127.80 127.09 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 00:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00 4-8-2009 01:00:00

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Note : The dates shown are relative dates as used in MIKE11 model set up.

11.6

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

11.6.1 Comparison of Maximum Discharge and Water Level For the different hydrodynamic scenario simulated so far, the maximum discharge and water level occurring at different locations of Siang river downstream of Lower Siang dam have been compared in Table 11.12 and 11.13 respectively.

Table 11.12 Comparison of maximum discharge obtained in different cases


Chainage (m) d/s of Lower Siang dam SIANG 494.00 SIANG 1482.00 SIANG 2470.00 SIANG 3458.00 SIANG 4446.00 SIANG 5381.67 SIANG 6265.00 SIANG 7148.33 SIANG 8031.67 SIANG 8915.00 Maximum discharge (cumec) PMF and dam PMF without breach dam breach (Table-5.2) (Table-5.4) 137304 58172 137076 136815 136567 136284 136023 135797 135668 135687 135624
184

PMF in condition (Table-5.6) 60088 60035 59985 59936 59891 59852 59815 59779 59743 59723

virgin

58171 58169 58168 58167 58166 58165 58163 58162 58161

Environmental Management Plan Dam Break Analysis & Disaster Management Plan SIANG 9798.33 SIANG 10700.83 SIANG 11622.50 SIANG 12544.17 SIANG 13465.83 SIANG 14387.50 SIANG 15309.17 SIANG 16207.00 SIANG 17081.00 SIANG 17955.00 SIANG 18829.00 SIANG 19703.00 SIANG 20635.00 SIANG 21625.00 SIANG 22615.00 SIANG 23605.00 SIANG 24595.00 SIANG 25563.89 SIANG 26511.67 SIANG 27459.45 SIANG 28407.22 SIANG 29355.00 SIANG 30302.78 SIANG 31250.55 SIANG 32198.33 SIANG 33146.11 SIANG 34100.50 SIANG 35061.50 SIANG 36022.50 SIANG 36983.50 SIANG 37944.50 SIANG 38905.50 SIANG 39866.50 SIANG 40827.50 135634 135628 135462 135524 135392 135112 135083 135151 134703 134798 134738 134615 134351 133844 133337 133116 132612 131790 131417 130870 129993 129704 129087 128643 128309 127661 127439 126784 126464 125870 125455 124859 124392 123689
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58159 58158 58156 58154 58152 58150 58148 58146 58143 58139 58134 58128 58119 58110 58112 58119 58124 58130 58134 58138 58140 58140 58139 58136 58131 58123 58111 58096 58077 58077 58089 58097 58103 58105

59729 59735 59740 59748 59756 59763 59771 59777 59785 59794 59804 59815 59827 59838 59848 59855 59858 59856 59849 59834 59811 59778 59733 59674 59623 59655 59684 59706 59719 59723 59716 59699 59670 59628

Environmental Management Plan Dam Break Analysis & Disaster Management Plan SIANG 41788.50 SIANG 42749.50 SIANG 43678.89 SIANG 44576.67 SIANG 45474.45 SIANG 46372.22 SIANG 47270.00 SIANG 48167.78 SIANG 49065.55 SIANG 49963.33 SIANG 50861.11 122928 121623 120613 119567 118560 117746 116838 116119 115427 114644 114035 58102 58093 58076 58053 58024 57990 58000 58004 58003 57997 57984 59565 59505 59522 59528 59521 59501 59467 59418 59353 59273 59291

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From the table-11.12 it can be seen that the attenuation of flood peak in the study river reach is more in case of PMF and dam break condition in comparison to all other simulated cases. Futher due to large capacity of the reservoir the PMF peak gets mitigated by 2500 cumec in comparison to virgin condition of river, by storage available between FRL and MWL of Lower Siang reservoir.

Table 11.13 Comparison of maximum water level obtained in different cases


Chainage (m) d/s of Siang Lower dam Bed Level Maximum water level (m) (m) PMF and PMF dam breach without (Table-5.3) dam breach (Table-5.5) 149.40 * * * * 158.83 * * * * * 140.76 * 210.71 209.78 208.73 207.66 206.03 202.83 200.68 198.48 196.24 193.94 191.74 189.56 188.54
186

PMF in virgin condition (Table-5.7) 195.37 194.68 193.85 192.80 191.28 188.72 186.74 184.86 183.10 181.45 179.90 178.45 178.21

SIANG 0.00 SIANG 988.00 SIANG 1976.00 SIANG 2964.00 SIANG 3952.00 SIANG 4940.00 SIANG 5823.33 SIANG 6706.67 SIANG 7590.00 SIANG 8473.33 SIANG 9356.67 SIANG 10240.00 SIANG 11161.67

194.90 194.23 193.41 192.37 190.87 188.33 186.36 184.49 182.74 181.10 179.58 178.16 177.92

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SIANG 12083.33 SIANG 13005.00 SIANG 13926.67 SIANG 14848.33 SIANG 15770.00 SIANG 16644.00 SIANG 17518.00 SIANG 18392.00 SIANG 19266.00 SIANG 20140.00 SIANG 21130.00 SIANG 22120.00 SIANG 23110.00 SIANG 24100.00 SIANG 25090.00 SIANG 26037.78 SIANG 26985.55 SIANG 27933.33 SIANG 28881.11 SIANG 29828.89 SIANG 30776.67 SIANG 31724.45 SIANG 32672.22 SIANG 33620.00 SIANG 34581.00 SIANG 35542.00 SIANG 36503.00 SIANG 37464.00 SIANG 38425.00 SIANG 39386.00 SIANG 40347.00 SIANG 41308.00 SIANG 42269.00 SIANG 43230.00 SIANG 44127.78 SIANG 45025.55 SIANG 45923.33 SIANG 46821.11

* * * * 149.96 * * * * 145.67 * * * * 138.19 * * * * * * * * 137.66 * * * * * * * * * 121.97 * * * *

187.72 186.58 184.97 182.83 179.99 177.78 175.87 174.16 172.60 171.21 169.36 167.48 165.61 163.90 162.58 161.25 159.90 158.51 157.08 155.62 154.12 152.57 151.01 149.52 147.99 146.47 144.94 143.41 141.89 140.37 138.86 137.43 136.20 135.32 134.60 133.88 133.16 132.45
187

177.37 176.61 175.64 174.33 172.40 170.85 169.38 167.98 166.65 165.40 163.86 162.34 160.84 159.43 158.36 157.28 156.17 155.03 153.85 152.64 151.39 150.08 148.73 147.32 145.78 144.24 142.70 141.15 139.61 138.07 136.54 135.09 133.86 133.01 132.34 131.68 131.03 130.38

177.65 176.89 175.90 174.57 172.61 171.05 169.57 168.17 166.84 165.59 164.04 162.51 160.99 159.57 158.49 157.40 156.29 155.14 153.95 152.73 151.47 150.16 148.80 147.38 145.85 144.31 142.77 141.23 139.68 138.14 136.62 135.16 133.93 133.09 132.42 131.76 131.10 130.45

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SIANG 47718.89 SIANG 48616.67 SIANG 49514.45 SIANG 50412.22 SIANG 51310.00

* * * * 114.71

131.73 131.01 130.29 129.56 128.83

129.73 129.08 128.42 127.74 127.03

129.79 129.14 128.48 127.80 127.09

From the Table 11.13, it can be concluded that : i) ii) The water level due to dam breach varies from EL 210.71 m to 128.83 m along the river reach, while the variation of the same without dam breach is from EL 194.90 to 127.03 m. The reservoir dampens the PMF by about 2500 cumec and water level along the river reach in non dam breach condition is about 6 cm to 40 cm less in comparison to virgin river condition. The water levels, given in Table 11.13, is used for the preparation of inundation map. The plots of time series of peak segment of water level due to dam break flood at different locations of Siang river is given in Plate 11.1. The same can be used for estimating the period of inundation corresponding to a particular elevation during the preparation of disaster management plan. The plots of all the cross sections of the Siang River have been given in Plate 11.2. The maximum water level at these cross sections due to dam break flood has also been superimposed over them.

11.6.2 Dam Break Flood Hydrograph The dam breach flood hydrograph of Fig. 11.11 has been reproduced in the tabular form and the same is given in Table 11.14. The peak of the hydrograph is 137304 cumec.

Table 11.14 Dam breach Flood hydrograph just d/s of Lower Siang dam
Time (hr:m:s) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Discharge (cumecs) 33419 33313 33084 32923 32850 32797 32754 Time (hr:m:s) 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 Discharge (cumecs) 50557 50327 50288 50204 50113 50065 50058 Time (hr:m:s) 94 95 96 97 98 99 100
188

Discharge (cumecs) 42434 41807 41228 40699 40213 39767 39361

Time (hr:m:s) 150 151 152 153 154 155 156

Discharge (cumecs) 33116 33083 33051 33018 32987 32959 32932

Environmental Management Plan Dam Break Analysis & Disaster Management Plan 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 32727 32721 32735 32767 32817 32891 32996 33123 33278 33511 34156 34937 35789 36678 37654 38620 39340 39911 40425 40930 41463 42101 42967 44045 45311 46794 48552 50202 51217 51794 52093 52196 52186 52077 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 72:10:00 72:20:00 72:30:00 72:40:00 72:50:00 73:00:00 73:10:00 73:20:00 73:30:00 73:40:00 73:50:00 74:00:00 74:10:00 74:20:00 74:30:00 74:40:00 74:50:00 75:00:00 75:10:00 75:20:00 75:30:00 76:00:00 77 78 50089 50273 50780 51614 52733 54109 55728 57181 57948 58172 90152 132117 136209 137304 134955 131501 127609 123576 119559 115687 111918 108283 104825 101503 98325 95315 92474 90149 88014 86047 84188 79142 71136 65315 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134
189

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38981 38628 38317 38037 37772 37512 37258 37026 36811 36606 36406 36212 36036 35875 35726 35580 35435 35303 35180 35062 34945 34829 34723 34625 34533 34443 34357 34279 34206 34135 34066 33999 33935 33873

157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190

32906 32880 32855 32832 32811 32788 32765 32742 32721 32702 32686 32670 32657 32645 32634 32623 32611 32598 32587 32577 32567 32558 32550 32543 32537 32533 32531 32531 32533 32535 32536 32537 32537 32537

Environmental Management Plan Dam Break Analysis & Disaster Management Plan 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 52033 52314 52942 53891 55126 56307 56939 57088 56871 56286 55325 54165 52991 51965 51121 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 61094 58040 55752 54022 52753 51609 50514 49408 48406 47440 46502 45595 44710 43869 43115 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 33813 33754 33695 33637 33582 33533 33487 33440 33393 33348 33307 33268 33229 33189 33151 191 192 193 194 32493 32343 32104 31797

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11.6.3 Longitudinal Profile The longitudinal profile of the Siang river for dam break condition is given in Fig. 11.12.

11.6.4 Assumptions Modeling process is nothing but approximation of a physical phenomenon through which the physical phenomenon and its effects can be studied. Thus, as in the case of any other modeling process, dam break modeling has inherent approximations through assumptions. The foremost assumptions are in the hydrodynamic equations (Saint Venant equations) which are derived on the basis of the following assumptions: (1) (2) (3) The water is incompressible and homogeneous i.e. without significant variation in density. The bottom slope is small. The wave lengths are large compared to the water depth. This ensures that the flow everywhere can be regarded as having a direction parallel to the bottom, i.e., vertical accelerations can be neglected and a hydrostatic pressure variation along the vertical can be assumed. (4) The flow is sub-critical.

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The other assumptions are associated with the breach parameters, especially, breach width and breach depth, which has significant impact on flood peak and arrival times. Dam break floods create a large amount of transported debris. This may accumulate at constricted cross sections, where it acts as a temporary dam and partially or completely restricts the flow, resulting variation in water level at the downstream locations. This aspect has also been neglected due to limitations in modeling of such a complicated physical process. This limitation also has an effect on the conservative side only. Even with the assumptions outlined above, dam break modeling serves very useful purpose, as it provides reasonable extent of inundation under different situations enabling preparation of Emergency Action Plan/ Disaster Management Plan.

11.7 PREPARATION OF INNUNDATION MAP An inundation map is a map depicting the d/s areas vulnerable to inundation by the dam break flood. The MIKE 11 model computes maximum flood elevation at each original or interpolated crosssection. In present case, the cross-sections are available up to 51.3 km d/s of dam. The profile of water levels below the dam at all cross-sections for 144 m breach width & 67m breach depth (case-1) for 10 minute breach time, is El 210.71m at dam and El 128.83 at 51.3 km downstream of dam is given as Table 11.5. It may also be seen that water profile at 51.3kms downstream of dam is EL 127.09m with incoming PMF and with or without dam existing. From this profile, at locations below the dam and their subsequent markings on the topographic maps, it can be seen which areas are likely to be submerged in case of dam break (Fig. 11.13) and disaster management plan can be worked out.

11.8

DISASTER MANAGEMENT PLAN Failure of dam is a low risk- high impact hazard as they do not occur often but can be

catastrophic. In recent years failure rate has fallen below 0.5%, in which most of the failures involve small dams. The failures of dam are directly related to the type of dams. Earth and rock fill dams fail with overtopping by floods and to inadequate foundation drains that can lead to the collapse of earth embankment. The concrete dam may fail with foundation problem due to internal erosion or insufficient bedrock strength. Dam failure poses serious threat to all people and property, located downstream from the structure. In order to save a large numbers of injuries, huge damage to property
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an integrated disaster management approach to is essential. This approach includes disaster prevention, mitigation, preparedness responses, recovery and rehabilitation. From the result it is evident that up to about 51.3 km D/S of the Lower Siang dam, time required in reaching the flood wave elevation to the maximum is of the order of few minutes. It hardly leaves any possibility of any rescue or evacuation. Since the time available is very short, the Disaster Management Plan should concentrate on preventive actions. Surveillance and monitoring programmes are required to be implemented during design and investigation, construction, first reservoir filling, early operation period and operation & maintenance phases of the life cycle of dam. It is desirable that all gates, electricity, public announcement system, power generator backups etc are thoroughly checked before arrival of the monsoon. As it is clear from the results that upstream water level has significant effect on the dam break flood, the following flood conditions may be considered for different level of alertness: i) If u/s water level reaches at top of the dam, it may be considered as an emergency. At this point only a few minutes are available for taking any action. All the staff from the dam site should be alerted to move to a safe place. The district administration and the corporations head office shall be informed about the possibility of dam failure. ii) If u/s water level rises above the dam top and dam begins to fail, it may be considered as a disaster condition. At this stage, nothing can be done. Information in this regard should be given to the head office and district administration. The following measures can be taken to avoid the loss of lives and property:

11.8.1 Preventive Measures Once the likelihood of an emergency situation is suspected, action has to be initiated to prevent a failure. The point at which each situation reaches an emergency status shall be specified and at that stage the vigilance and surveillance shall be upgraded. At this stage a through inspection of the dam shall be carried out to locate any visible signs of distress. The anticipated need of equipment shall be evaluated and if these are not available at the dam site, the exact locations and

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availability of these equipments shall be identified. A plan shall be drawn on priority for inspection of the dam. The dam, its sluices and non-overflow sections will be properly illuminated.

11.8.2 Surveillance Surveillance and monitoring programs are required to be implemented during design and investigation, construction, early operation period and operation and maintenance phases of the life cycle of the dam. It is desirable that all gates, public announcement system, power generator backups etc are thoroughly checked before arrival of the monsoon. An effective flood forecasting system is required by establishing hourly gauge reading at suitable u/s locations with real time communicator at the top. An effective dam safety surveillance and monitoring programme also includes rapid analysis and interpretation of instrumentation and observation data along with periodic inspection, safety reviews and evaluation. 11.8.3 Infrastructural Development It is essential to improve, modernize and expand the existing network and rainfall and stream gauging stations in the region. Total financial allocation for the surveillance, monitoring and infrastructure development would be Rs. 120.00 lakhs. 11.8.4 Preparedness Community preparedness is key mitigation factor in the flash flood condition. It involves not only the emergency action plan and well developed communication but needs awareness programme for the people residing in downstream areas. Preparedness also involves the development of infrastructures like escape routes and refuge for people and livestock flood prone areas. The following preparedness measures are suggested for disaster management of Lower Siang H.E. project. 11.8.4.1 Emergency Action Plan An emergency is defined as a condition of serious nature which develops unexpectedly and endangers downstream property and human life and requires immediate attention. The following measures are required for emergency action plan. 11.8.4.2 Administrative and Procedural Aspects The Administrative and procedural aspects of emergency action plan consists of a flowchart depicting the names, addresses and telephone numbers of the responsible and coordinating officials.
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In order of hierarchy, the following system will usually be appropriate. In the event of potential emergency, the observer at the site is required to report it to the Engineer-in-charge through a wireless system, if available, or by the fastest communication system available. The Engineer-incharge shall be responsible for contacting the Civil Administration, viz. Deputy Commissioner, In order to oversee all the operations required to tackle the emergency situations, a centralised command and control room would be set up by the project authorities at Pasighat. The office would also remain in contact with offices of upstream projects. Each person involved with the emergency plan would be made aware of his/her responsibilities/ duties and the importance of work assigned under the Emergency Action Plan. All the villages falling under the flood prone zone or on the margins would be connected through wireless communication system with backup of standby telephone lines. A centralized siren alert system would be installed at all the Village Panchayats so that in the event of a warning all villagers can be alerted through sirens rather than informing every body through messengers which is not feasible in such emergency situations. A financial allocation of Rs.120.00 lakhs has been made in the project cost for setting up of emergency control room and installation of siren/hooter alert systems at various locations.

11.8.4.3 Communication System An efficient communication system and a downstream warning system are absolutely essential for the success of an emergency plan especially when time is of great essence. The difference between a high flood and a dam break situation shall be made clear to the downstream people in advance through awareness programmes. All the villages falling under the flood-prone zone or on the margins are required to be connected through wireless system backed by stand-by telephone lines. A centralized siren system is to be installed at Panchayats so that in the event of a warning. Keeping the disaster scenario in mind, any terrestrial system such as land lines or even cellular towers, etc. are likely to be the first casualty in earthquakes or floods. The restoration of such systems is time consuming. Moreover, the maintenance of such lines becomes a great problem in emergency even for the technical personnel who are required to reach the site of fault, which may be struck by the disaster. The system, therefore, cannot be made operational soon enough. The fault repairs and restoration of communication services are usually not possible for a considerable period
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of time after the calamity has struck. Moreover, it is critical that the communication systems are restored at the earliest so that relief/medical teams and other personnel can be arranged at the earliest possible time. All the subsidiary help depends solely on the communication system. As this criterion is paramount, existing systems such as telephones and telex, etc. are practically of little use in case of such events and situations. Similarly, microwave links are expected to be down due to collapse of towers, etc. Restoration of towers and alignment of equipment is again a time consuming activity. Keeping in view the urgency of services and their dependability during emergency relevant to the disaster conditions, satellite based systems present an ideal solution. The satellite based system usually comprises following components. i) ii) iii) A small dish of approximately one meter diameter Associated radio equipment A power source

The deployment of the system is not dependent on the restoration of land routes. The existing satellite based communication systems are designed in such a manner that they are able to withstand fairly high degree of demanding environmental conditions. Secondly, the restoration of the satellite based system can be undertaken by carrying maintenance personnel and equipment by helicopters at a very short notice. Even the fresh systems could be inducted in a matter of an hour or so because most of these are designed for transportability by air. The deployment takes usually less than an hour. The power requirements are not large and can be met by sources such as UPS/batteries/ generators. Satellite phones are the other option that could prove very useful for such situations and must be considered by the project authorities is critical to their operations. The cost of deployment and maintenance of a telecommunication system in disaster prone areas is not as important as the availability, reliability and quick restoration of the system. The cost of both satellite bandwidth and the ground components of the satellite communication system has been decreasing rapidly like that of V-SAT (Very Small Aperture Terminal) based systems supporting a couple of voice and data channels. Some highly superior communication systems in VSAT without time delay are marketed by National agencies like HECL, HFCL and HCL Comet. There are two different types of systems with the above mentioned capabilities available in the market viz. SCPCDAMA and TDMA. However, the first one named SCPCDAMA has been recommended for
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Lower Siang H.E. project. In all three, such systems would be installed at different sites in the area. The estimated cost of installation of such a communication system has been given in Table 11.15.

Table 11.15 The estimated cost of setting up of a satellite communication system


Sl.No. Product Setting up of V-SAT communication system Product Name : SCPCDAMA (8 sites) @ Rs.25.00 lakhs per site a) b) c) 2. 3. 4. Antenna 3 x 2.4 M RF 3 x 2 W Modem 3 x 1No. 24.00 10.00 120.00 Amount (Rs. in lakhs)

A. 1.

200.00

Generators 8 Nos. (2 KVA) UPS 8 Nos. (2 KVA) Installation and maintenance of system, maintenance and running cost of UPS, generators, etc. @ 10% of the total cost for 7 years Total

334.00

11.8.5 Awareness A few guidelines to be generally followed by the inhabitants of flood prone areas, which form part of public awareness for disaster mitigation include : (i). (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) (vi) Listen to the radio for advance information and advice. Disconnect all electrical appliances and move all valuable personal and Move household goods and all clothing out of reach of flood water. Move vehicles, farm animals and movable goods to the highest ground nearby. Move all dangerous pollutants and insecticides out of reach of water. Do not enter flood waters on foot, if it can be avoided.

11.8.6 Response and Recovery The entire rescue operation depends on the responses from the administration and project developers. All technical support and medical support must be supplied to the victims in first phase of operation. The response and Recovery plan include evacuation plan,
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11.8.7 Evacuation Plan Emergency Action Plan includes evacuation plans and procedures for implementation based on local needs. These are: (i). (ii) Demarcation/prioritization of areas to be evacuated Notification procedures and evacuation instructions

(iii) Safe routes, transport and traffic control (iv) Shelter areas (v) Functions and responsibilities of members of evacuation team properly at the village locations with adequate factor of safety. As the flood wave takes sufficient time in reaching these villages, its populace shall be informed well in time through wireless and sirens etc. so that people may climb on hills or to some elevated place beyond the flood zone which has been marked. The Evacuation Team would comprise of : i) D.M./ his Nominated Officer (To peacefully relocate the people to places at higher elevation with state administration) ii) Engineer-in-Charge of the Project (Team Leader) iii) S.P./Nominated Police Officer (To maintain law and order) iv) C.M.O. of the area (To tackle morbidity of affected people) v) Sarpanch/Gram Budha of Affected Villages to execute the resettlement operation with the aid of state machinery and project proponents vi) Sub-committees at village level The entire evacuation team will be well equipped with rescue team, medical team, medicines, emergency vans, boats, helicopter, and other means of transport. The Engineer-in-Charge will be responsible for the entire operation including prompt determination of the flood situation from time to time. Once the red alert is declared the whole state machinery will come into swing and will start evacuating people in the inundation areas delineated in the inundation map. For successful execution, annually Demo exercise will be done. DM is to monitor the entire operation. Total financial outlay for the Recovery, Evacuation and rescue operation would be Rs. 150.00 lakhs. (vi) The flood prone zone in the event of dam break of Lower Siang H.E. project shall be marked

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11.8.8 Medical Team After declaration of red alert, district administration would arrange a team of doctors within a few hours. The strength of the medical team depends on the magnitude of disaster. The team will be lash with all possible medical facilities to cure the emergency cases, injuries and water borne diseases like diarrhea, etc. Total financial budget for the medical team would be Rs. 80.00 lakhs.

11.8.9 Mitigation and Rehabilitation In event of the dam break, project authorities would provide adequate Relief and Resettlement package to the inhabitants of flood prone area against the loss of life (people, livestock) and property. The package includes the cost of property lost, sustenance grant, livelihood grant, medical grant and rights and privilege grant on forest resources. Considering the villages located in the downstream flood prone areas, total allocation of 350.00 lakhs has been made in the project cost.

11.9

COST ESTIMATES The estimated total cost of execution of disaster management plan including the equipment

would be Rs. 1254.00 lakhs and it is given in Table 11.16.

Table 11.16 Cost estimates for the disaster management plan of Lower Siang H.E. project
Particulars Surveillance and monitoring Administrative and Procedural Aspects Communication System Recovery, Evacuation and rescue operation Medical expenditure Mitigation and Rehabilitation Notification and Public awareness Miscellaneous Total cost (rupees in lakhs) 120.00 120.00 334.00 150.00 80.00 350.00 50.00 50.00

Total

1254.00

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