Integrated Analysis of Hybrid Systems for Rural Electrification in Developing Countries

Timur Gül

Supervisor and Examiner Assoc. Professor Jan-Erik Gustafsson Division of Land and Water and Water Resources Engineering Royal Institute of Technology

Supervisor in Germany Dr. Dirk Aßmann Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment, Energy

Reviewer Michael Bartlett Department of Energy Processes Royal Institute of Technology Stockholm 2004

TRITA-LWR Master Thesis ISSN 1651-064X LWR-EX-04-26

Abstract

I

Abstract
Around 2 billion people world-wide do not have access to electricity services, of which the main share in rural areas in developing countries. Due to the fact that rural electricity supply has been regarded as essential for economic development during the Earth Summit on Sustainable Development in 2002, it is nowadays a main focus in international development cooperation. Renewable energy resources are a favourable alternative for rural energy supply. In order to handle their fluctuating nature, however, hybrid systems can be applied. These systems use different energy generators in combination, by this maintaining a stable energy supply in times of shortages of one the energy resources. Main hope attributed to these systems is their good potential for economic development. This paper discusses the application of hybrid systems for rural electrification in developing countries by integrating ecological, socio-economic and economic aspects. It is concluded that hybrid systems are suitable to achieve both ecological and socio-economic objectives, since hybrid systems are an environmental sound technology with high quality electricity supply, by this offering a good potential for economic development. However, it is recommended to apply hybrid systems only in areas with economic development already taking place in order to fully exploit the possibilities of the system. Moreover, key success factors for the application of hybrid systems are discussed. It is found that from a technical point of view, appropriate maintenance structures are the main aspect to be considered, requiring the establishment of maintenance centres. It is therefore recommendable to apply hybrid systems in areas with a significant number of villages, which are to be electrified with these systems, in order to improve financial sustainability of these maintenance centres. The appropriate distribution model is seen as being important as well; it is thought that the sale of hybrid systems via credit, leasing or cash is the most likely approach. In order to do so, however, financial support and capacity building of local dealers is inalienable.

Table of Contents

II

Table of Contents
Abstract ........................................................................................................................I Table of Contents....................................................................................................... II List of Figures ........................................................................................................... IV List of Tables.............................................................................................................. V Acronyms .................................................................................................................. VI 1 1.1 1.2 2 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1 Objective ........................................................................................................... 2 Methodology...................................................................................................... 2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply ........................................................... 4

2.1 Decentralised Electrification .............................................................................. 4 2.1.1 Diesel Generating Sets ....................................................................................... 4 2.1.2 Renewable Energy Technologies ....................................................................... 5 2.2 2.2.1 2.2.2 2.2.3 2.2.4 2.3 3 Hybrid System Technology................................................................................ 6 Relevance .......................................................................................................... 6 Hybrid Systems in Developing Countries........................................................... 7 Other Hybrid Systems........................................................................................ 9 Technical Aspects ............................................................................................ 11 Grid-based Electrification ................................................................................ 14 Analysis of Impacts ........................................................................................ 16

3.1 Scope of the Analysis....................................................................................... 16 3.1.1 Scenario Definitions......................................................................................... 16 3.1.2 Modelling Assumptions ................................................................................... 18 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4.1 3.4.2 3.4.3 The Concept of Indicators of Sustainability...................................................... 18 Developing an Indicator Set for Energy Technologies...................................... 19 Analysis of Sustainability ................................................................................ 21 Ecological Dimension ...................................................................................... 21 Socio-Economic Dimension............................................................................. 27 Economic Dimension....................................................................................... 33

3.5 Results and Discussion..................................................................................... 42 3.5.1 Results ............................................................................................................. 42 3.5.2 Discussion ....................................................................................................... 45

..................................................................2 4...................................................1 5................................ 63 Political Factors .............................. 87 C...............................1 Hybrid Systems in Indonesia........................................................................................................................ 79 Annex C: Analysis of Impacts ...................................................3 Economic Issues....................................................1 Scenario Definitions ...............2.. 101 D...... 57 Capacity Building ........... 53 Financing ............................... 104 D.................................................................................................................... 86 C........................................3 5 5. 105 D.......5 5..........1 4..........................................................................................................Table of Contents III 4 Project Examples .................................................................3 5......................................................4 5............................................. 68 A.............................................. 70 Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations ......1 Ecology......... 93 Annex D: Cost Analysis .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 110 Terms of Reference ..............................................3 Electricity Generating Costs from Different Sources ............................................................................................... 75 B........2 Project Description ... 47 4.......... 113 .............................................1 Calculation of Electricity Demand...................... 64 Summary and Conclusions ........................ 47 4.......................................................................... 49 Baseline .1...... 86 C................................. 47 4.............................................................................. 47 4................................................................................................................................................................................................ 60 Technical Aspects ....6 6 Hybrid Systems in Inner Mongolia................................................ 53 Organisation ............................. 49 Project Description ...................1 Baseline ......................................................................... 68 A.................................2 5...........................................................2 System Design ......................................... 52 Key success factors.2 4..............2................................................................2 Socio-Economic Issues.......................................................1 Investment Costs......................2...........................1........... 75 B................................................2 Electricity Generating Costs............................................................... 62 Assessment of Electricity Demand and Potential for Renewable Energies.............................................................................................................. 66 Annex A: Electricity Demand and System Design.....................2 Modelling Results ............. 49 Aspects of System Dissemination .................................................

.................16 Comparative Assessment of Electricity Generating Costs........2 GEMIS Results: Methane Emissions ...............22 Results Socio-Economic Assessment ....................................... 36 Figure 3....4 Illustration of Electricity Generating Costs for Wind/Diesel .................. 83 Figure B................................................ 44 Figure 5............... 81 Figure B.............................23 Results Economic Assessment ................ 32 Figure 3.........................................List of Figures IV List of Figures Figure 2.........11 Comparative Assessment of Potential for Economic Development .1 GEMIS Results: Greenhouse Gas Emissions ........................ 60 Figure B.........3 GEMIS Results: Air Pollutants ............... 85 Figure B.20 Comparative Assessment of Future Potential......4 Selected Air Pollutants ........... 38 Figure 3...................... 29 Figure 3..........................6 Cumulative Energy Demand According to Resources................................................ 85 Figure D.................. 25 Figure 3............... 24 Figure 3..........1 Principle Circuit of Hybrid Systems .................................. 37 Figure 3.......1 Hybrid Village Systems: Distribution Steps ........................ 42 Figure 3............ 28 Figure 3... 30 Figure 3....... 25 Figure 3...................................................................................3 GEMIS Results: Emissions of Air Pollutants............................................... 23 Figure 3....5 GEMIS Results: Cumulative Energy Demand of Primary Energy ... 80 Figure B.. 39 Figure 3..........8 Comparative Assessment of Cultural Compatibility and Acceptance .....15 Electricity Generating Costs in Comparison ..10 Comparative Assessment of Participation and Empowerment.......... 84 Figure B.................................19 Comparative Assessment of Supply Security..14 Comparative Assessment of Investment Costs.......13 Comparative Assessment of Impacts on Health ...............9 Comparative Assessment of Supply Equity ..... 33 Figure 3............... 44 Figure 3...............6 Comparative Assessment of Resource Consumption .......1 GEMIS Results: GHG Emissions .1 Specific Investment for Wind Power Plants and Diesel Gensets ........ 31 Figure 3..............2 Specific Investment for Hybrid Systems of Different Capacities..........4 Comparative Assessment of Air Pollutants Emissions ..........7 Comparative Assessment of Noise Pollution ............................18 Comparative Assessment Regional Self-Supply and Import Independence 40 Figure 3.................. 103 Figure D.............................................................................21 Results Ecology Assessment ......................................2 Comparative Assessment of GHG Emissions ................................................. 108 Figure D.......... 43 Figure 3....... 26 Figure 3........................................................... 41 Figure 3................ 22 Figure 3......................................... 23 Figure 3..........................................17 Comparative Assessment of Maintenance Requirements ..... 8 Figure 3...................... 108 ........................5 Cumulative Energy Demand (Primary Energy)..................................... 104 Figure D...12 Comparative Assessment of Employment Effects.....................3 Illustration of Electricity Generating Costs for PV/Diesel....................................

..7 Electricity Generating Costs PV/Wind.........5 Share of Technologies for Electricity Generation.......................................... 34 Table 3............... 102 Table D................... 93 Table C............... 84 Table C................2 Criteria and Indicators for the Assessment of Energy Technologies ................ 16 Table 3......................................................... 102 Table D.................................. 68 Table A................................................ 68 Table A.......6 Electricity Generating Costs of Wind/Diesel Systems [€/kWh] ................... 112 .........................................................................................1 Amount of Greenhouse Gas Emissions ......................................1: Initial Investment Costs for Diesel Gensets........... 111 Table D................. 71 Table B. 36 Table 3......4 Main Modelling Assumptions....... 70 Table A..............................................1 Scenarios and Technologies for Rural Electrification.........................3 Peak and Base Loads for Different Village Sizes ........ 109 Table D.................................................... 80 Table B........................................ 49 Table A......................................... 38 Table 4..................... 96 Table D.................................2 Air Pollutants....................... 106 Table D.. 82 Table B...... 101 Table D...2: Electricity Generating Costs for Diesel Gensets ........10 5 kW Hybrid Systems at Different Diesel Prices .........................................................................................................2 Rich Household Characteristics ....... 69 Table A..................9 Electricity Generating Costs of Hybrid Systems in Inner Mongolia .................................8 Investment and Operating Costs of Different Household Systems.............................................4 Main Assumptions for the Cost Analysis . Inner Mongolia.....7 Electricity Generating Costs for Different Scenarios..........................3 Performance Assessment Scheme...........List of Tables V List of Tables Table 3....................... 111 Table D....2 Investment Costs for Small-Scale Wind Power Plants......5 Electricity Generating Costs of PV/Diesel Systems [€/kWh].......................................3: Hybrid Systems at Different Diesel Prices .. 95 Table C... 105 Table D............................... 20 Table 3.. 106 Table D..............................1 Hybrid Systems in Inner Mongolia .......5 Specific Investment Costs of Hybrid Systems.................................. 19 Table 3...1 Main Assumptions for the Cost Analysis ...........................3 Cumulative Energy Demand (Primary Energy) ..........4 Range of Investment Costs for Hybrid Systems .................6 Investment Costs of Different Scenarios for Rural Electrification ...............................1 Standard Household Characteristics..............................................3 Investment Costs for Diesel Gensets.................. 35 Table 3.....................

Acronyms VI Acronyms AC CED CSD DC EMS GEF GHG GTZ KfW OECD PV Schueco SMA SHS WHO Alternating Current Cumulative Energy Demand Commission on Sustainable Development Direct Current Energy Management System Global Environmental Facility Greenhouse Gas Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Photovoltaic Schueco International KG. produces i.e.e. different solar energy systems SMA Regelsysteme GmbH. produces i. inverters Solar Home System World Health Organisation .

In response to the lack of electricity supply in developing countries. are the effect that can be expected from better energy services. 2002). will account for more than 60 % of this increase (IEA. their improved access to modern energy services has been regarded as essential for sustainable development during the Earth Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg. This lack of access to electricity mainly applies to rural areas in developing countries. Social benefits related to improved energy services include poverty alleviation by changing energy use patterns in favour of non-traditional fuels. 2002). however. A pos- . however. 2. and progress being made over the last 25 years has applied mainly to urban areas (The World Bank. is the instable energy provision due to the fluctuating nature of the resources. is likely to increase. the combating population growth by shifting relative benefits and costs of fertility towards lower rates of birth. The effect of increasing global CO2-emissions will be the consequence. Recent approaches meet this challenge with a focus on decentralised systems for the electrification of rural areas. however. solar and hydro power. energy services are indeed seen as a major driving force to economic development. Without states taking heavy financial initiatives. 3. Global consumption of primary energy resources. productivity increases or improved economic opportunities. Today. and the creation of new opportunities for women by reducing the time for the collection of wood for cooking and heating (WEHAB Working Group. Main hope is here attributed to the application of renewable energies as wind. 2002). the situation in 2030 will remain more or less unchanged with 1. major ones being economic and social goals. but additional measures are required as well. This is mainly due to the goals that are associated with the development of energy infrastructure.e.1 Introduction 1 1 Introduction Recent research on the development of the world’s energy state and the future development scenarios show alarming developments: 1. Developing countries. with the increase being mainly based on fossil fuels. and their application strengthens the security of energy supply by using local resources. 2002). The challenge. which is a major occupation of women in developing countries. time that could be used for education or employment instead. without on the other hand increasing reliance on fossil fuels. is to improve access to modern energy services. which had been attributed to energy services in the past. Around 2 billion people world-wide do not have access to modern energy services. thus. the compatibility to climate is better than for currently used options. could not live up to experiences. Renewable energies use environmentally sound technologies: their consumption does not result in the depletion of resources. A major problem related to the application of renewable energies in decentralised systems. Higher availability of jobs. 1996a).4 billion people or 18 % of the world’s population without electricity supply (IEA. i. 2002. which are especially suited for decentralised electricity generation. The outstanding key role in economic development. especially in Asia. by catalysing the creation of small enterprises or livelihood activities in evening hours (WEHAB Working Group.

and Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) on August. In this paper. organisation. accepting that sustainability is an ongoing dynamic process. while the potential of other such possibilities is briefly discussed as well.1 Objective The objective of this paper is to analyse and assess the sustainability of the application of hybrid systems for rural electrification in developing countries. Chapter 4 then describes experiences with projects in Indonesia and Inner Mongolia. 1. which needs to be ensured by setting the right framework.1 Introduction 2 sibility to solve this problem is to backup the renewable energy generator with another power generator in a so-called hybrid system. 2003. The findings of this research were then discussed with project developers at the fair Intersolar in Freiburg/Germany on June. 1. Moreover. For the assessment of sustainability in Chapter 3. where hybrid systems were applied. as well as with experts from Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW) on July. 14th. therefore. Special attention is paid to hybrid systems. This approach. the different systems for energy provision being important for the comparative assessment of sustainability are presented first. which have already been applied in developing countries. several are currently under implementation. Another objective here is to find key success factors for the application of hybrid systems. an indicator system on the three dimensions of sustainability – ecology. However. These key success factors are related to aspects of financing. A number of projects applying hybrid systems for electricity generation have already been carried out. site visits could not be held and. while chapter 5 then outlines the key success factors for the application of hybrid systems. this analysis is performed in comparative terms on the basis of an indicator set developed here. The sustainability of hybrid systems is assessed relative to the other potential decentralised electrification scenarios: diesel generator-based mini-grids.2 Methodology To pursue the above objectives. chapter 6 gives a summary and an outlook to the perspective of hybrid systems in developing countries. Finally. capacity building and others. socio-economic and economic issues . has not been investigated yet and shall be matter of this paper. although being known for quite some years already. Several factors have been limiting to this work. The different options for rural electrification are then investigated and compared with regard to these indicators. 7th. is just now stepwise gaining importance. the extension of the conventional grid is considered as well. the information here is limited to the findings of the literature review and the interviews. Solar Home Systems and biogas plants for electricity generation. a literature research was performed first. which are of importance for any decentralised rural electrification project and especially for hybrid systems. 28th.is developed. Firstly. Due to the absence of respective surveys. 2003. The objective in investigating key success factors is to maintain the sustainability of a project for rural electrification with hybrid systems. . 2003. the question whether and to which extent these systems satisfy the expectations on rural electrification projects with regard to sustainable development.

What proves to be right in one country can be completely wrong for another country. . the findings of this analysis are always to be seen as strongly generalised and their applicability must be proven anew in each case.1 Introduction 3 Moreover. Therefore. the analysis of hybrid systems in developing countries in general can come only to rather vague results.

2.1. by expansion of interconnected grids.. The objective is to provide a technical background for the evaluation of these options in the following chapters. which are in operation in developing countries nowadays.e. 3. In cases security of supply is not of major importance. with the other gensets providing backup (ESMAP. potential other hybrid solutions will be discussed against the background of applying them in developing countries. power supply in developing countries for rural areas takes place in three different ways (Kleinkauf. Moreover. locally. 2. Finally. will be presented. F. accepting that no electricity can be supplied in times the genset is out of commission.1 Decentralised Electrification In highly fragmented areas or at certain distances from the grid. due to repair or maintenance. This problem can be met by using a group of diesel gensets. the decentralised approaches of regional mini-grid systems or local supply of single consumers can become competitive due to lower investments and maintenance costs compared to large scale electrification by expanding interconnected grids. 2. single diesel gensets can be applied for electrification.1 Diesel Generating Sets Small diesel-power generating sets (diesel gensets) have been the traditional way to address the problem of the lack of electricity. by erecting or extending stand-alone regional mini-grids. by supplying single consumers and load groups. the different hybrid systems.. being adapted to the needs of the consumers. With diesel gensets. 1996/1997): 1. In a next step. They provide a simple solution for rural electrification and can be designed for different capacities. 2000). J.2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply 4 2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply This chapter gives an overview on potential solutions for rural energy supply. Those of importance for this paper are described more detailed firstly in the following. 2000). the electric current is produced within the village itself. Diesel gensets have problems with short durability. Typically. Generally. i. The approaches of local and decentralised electrification are obviously closely connected and can be met by similar technologies. decentrally. centrally.. which is due to the fact that they work very inefficiently when running just at fractions of their rated capacity. W. Different technological options are in practice. the options of importance for this work are discussed more in detail. most commonly diesel generating sets and renewable energies. The voltage of the generator is often adjusted to be higher than the required 220 Volt for the household because of high losses within the local distribution lines (Baur. including technical aspects to be considered and main applications. this chapter will also briefly discuss the centralised approach of the extension of the conventional grid to rural areas. Raptis. the effi- .

The photovoltaic modules are usually installed on rooftops. The electricity current is provided in direct current (DC). . spilling out 145. which requires high cross-sectional wiring in order to avoid high losses (Baur. the transportation of diesel fuel can result in severe environmental damage. and very often old motors from cars are used for the purpose of electrification. 2000). Moreover. the capacity can technically be expanded easily and. frequent start-up and shut-down procedures decrease their lifetime as well. 1996). In 2001. The application of inverters to provide alternating current (AC) at a voltage of 220 Volt is possible..e. D. A common 50 Wp can supply lighting and a TV/radio for several hours per day (Preiser. Many. 2 Anaerobic conditions: in absence of oxygen. The battery supplies electricity to the consumer during evening hours and in case of insolation shortages due to unfavourable weather conditions.. Sheriff. Solar Home Systems Solar Home Systems (SHS) typically include a 20. the tanker Jessica ran aground close to San Cristobal. they convert the insolation into electric current. islands) from higher developed regions so that the regular supply with diesel fuel becomes a logistical problem and an important financial burden even in countries. however. thus. M. social as well as economic goals associated with rural electrification. Moreover.to 100-Wp photovoltaic array and a leadacid battery with charge controller supplying energy for individual household appliances (Cabraal. excrements from animal husbandry) for the production of biogas under anaerobic conditions2. F.2 Renewable Energy Technologies The use of renewable energy technologies is a very promising approach towards meeting environmental..1 Both are presented in the following.1. but increases overall system costs...000 gallons of industrial fuel and diesel and putting the sensitive ecosystems of the islands to high risks. and biogas for local mini-grids or single consumers. The originating gas consists of 55 to 70% from Methane (CH4).e. which can be used in gas burners or motors 1 More potential renewable technologies include stand-alone wind turbines. L. The systems work at voltages of 12 or 24 Volt. where fuel is heavily subsidised. One of the basic problems for the application of diesel generating systems in developing countries. 2. J. K. be adapted to individual needs. S. wind farms. Biogas Biogas systems utilise micro-organisms for the conversion of biomass (i.. On a local level. Moreover. the battery offers the possibility to meet peak load demand for short periods of time. especially rural. hydropower and larger-scale photovoltaics. as experienced for example at the Galapagos Islands. areas are far away or isolated (i. 2001). A. which is used for loading the battery. two technologies are of high importance: Solar Home Systems (SHS) for supply of single consumers. Diesel gensets are typically just operated for around 4 hours in the evenings. Cosgrove-Davies. Schaeffer. Pneumaticos..2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply 5 ciency of operation is between 25-35% (Turcotte. 2001). is more a problem related to infrastructure.

basically by combining the technologies presented above. Main applications for rural electrification in developing countries include independent electric power supply for 3 To generate 1 kWh of electricity.2 Hybrid System Technology Hybrid systems are another approach towards decentralised electrification. where the organic substrate is decomposed in the three steps hydrolysis. three different types of hybrid systems have been applied in developing countries.2. So far.1 Relevance One of the main problems of solar as well as wind energy is the fluctuation of energy supply. Wind Generator and Diesel Genset. Hybrid systems can technically be designed for almost any purpose at any capacity. 1999a). 1999a). 2. 2000) or for gas cookers/stoves.e.3. this has so far been limited to pilot projects in industrialised countries. 2. incubators and refrigerators working on biogas (GTZ. resulting in intermittent delivery of power and causing problems if supply continuity is required. This can be avoided by the use of hybrid systems. Photovoltaic and Wind Generators.2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply 6 for the production of electric current3 (Kaltschmitt.. A hybrid system can be defined as “a combination of different. the system components. . 1 m3 biogas is necessary (GTZ. In developing countries these other technology options have not yet gained importance. A system using complementary energy supply technologies has the advantage of being able to supply energy even at times when one part of the hybrid system is unavailable. They can be designed as stand-alone mini-grids or in smaller scale as household systems. biogas lamps.2. Biogas systems are widely used in India and China for the supply of single consumers or local mini-grids. 1995). including Photovoltaic Generator and Diesel Generating Set (Diesel Genset). R. i. The presentation of these other potential options is left for section 2. radiant heaters. but complementary energy supply systems at the same place.. solar cells and wind power plants” (Weber. acidification and methane formation. This section wants to discuss available technology options. Main component of a biogas plant is the digestion tank (fermenter). general technical aspects and potential applications. Although other renewable energy resources than solar and wind can in principle be used in hybrid systems as well. M.

i.4 2.1 shows a principle overview of how to combine PV.Radio Relay Transmitters. . 5. 2003). 2.2. cables.). on June 28th. . at the same time loading the battery..Farmhouses. Germany. . A primary source of energy.5 4.). The appliances (lighting. All these components and the problems related to their application are further described in section 2. TV/radio. etc. Usually.Hotels. 3.Missions. which might not be satisfied by the renewable system alone. Installation material (safety boxes. 5 Storage systems in hybrid systems in developing countries are usually battery aggregates maintaining a stable output over a time frame of one or more days. Figure 2. Residential Buildings. Schools. The batteries act as “buffers”. Georg Weingarten. Moreover. .Irrigation systems. 4 Personal Comment given by Mr. using the energy surplus to load the battery. At favourable weather conditions. a renewable energy resource. J. . A secondary source of energy for supply in case of shortages. A future option might be the hydrogen fuel cell.Desalination Systems. 6.e..2 Hybrid Systems in Developing Countries A common hybrid system for the application in developing countries generally consists of the following main components: 1. the renewable part of the system satisfies the energy demand. The complementary resource produces the required energy at times of imminent deep discharge of the battery.1. a diesel genset. at Intersolar-Fair.2.e. Rotating masses can be used for shorter time frames (seconds). A charge controller. W.4. a DC/AC inverter needs to be installed additionally. controlling the battery not to be overloaded. Hybrid systems are applied in areas where permanent and reliable availability of electricity supply is an important issue. i. maintaining a stable energy supply during short periods of time (Blanco. Maintaining high availability with renewable energies alone usually requires big renewable energy generators. . A storage system to guarantee a stable output during short times of shortages. etc. Hospitals. Energiebau Solarstromsysteme GmbH. the battery serves to meet peak demands. Freiburg. wind and diesel generators in a hybrid system (Roth. plugs. combustion aggregates need to be used for medium. .or long-term storage. in cases of low sunlight or low wind. which can be avoided with hybrid systems. i. 2003. A charge controller regulates the state of load of the battery.e. 2003).2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply 7 - Villages.

2. Compared to the common solution for rural off-grid electrification using diesel gensets alone.1 PV/Diesel Combining Photovoltaic arrays and a diesel genset provides a rather simple solution and is feasible for regions with good solar resources. H. 7 Personal Comment given by Mr. As can be seen in Figure 2. Naturally. Lowe. D. on June 28th. R..2. in principal.. built up in the same way as are PV/Diesel systems. Germany. the rest being supplied with the diesel genset. et al. Germany.. Puls. Georg Weingarten. If wind 6 Personal Comment given by Mr. in climatic regions like Germany a PV/Diesel hybrid system is designed to provide around 50% of the electricity from photovoltaic during winter.2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply 8 Solar Generator Charge Control G Wind Generator Charge Control Battery Inverter Mini-Grid / Appliances G Diesel Generator Charge Control Figure 2. Experiences show annual fuel savings of more than 80% compared to stand-alone mini-grids on diesel genset basis. Freiburg.5 m/s already (Sauer. they can be applied in regions where average wind speed is around 3.2. PV/Diesel hybrid systems require a DC/AC-inverter if appliances need alternating current.2 Wind/Diesel Wind/Diesel combinations are..1. Typically.1 Principle Circuit of Hybrid Systems 2. on June 28th. Bopp. A project at Montague Island even reached an 87% decrease in fuel consumption (Corkish.6 depending on the regional conditions and the design of the system. From a perspective of financial competitiveness. at Intersolar-Fair. while in winter this figure is less. The CO2 emissions decrease correspondingly. the hybrid solution using photovoltaic offers great potential in saving fuel. 2003).2. Energiebau Solarstromsysteme GmbH. . since PV modules provide direct current. G. 2000). 2003. The solar generator can provide about 100% of the electricity during summertime. R. at Intersolar-Fair. Energiebau Solarstromsysteme GmbH.7 2. the observed fuel saving varies over the year. Freiburg.. Georg Weingarten. 2003.

Generally. however. The objective was to provide 80% of the necessary energy. at coastal or mountain areas with high degree of solar radiation. using the renewable energy resources photovoltaic.3 Other Hybrid Systems The hybrid systems implemented in developing countries so far do not reflect the whole range of potential solutions. The main components of the system include a 250 kWp solar generator and a 300 kW wind turbine with 3 inverted rectifiers connected in parallel (Neuhäusser. 2. wind and biogas for energy provision. 2.2. however preparing the energy management for further expansion using biogas in a decentralised cogeneration plant. Here..2. i.. Wiese. hospital electrification.e. This is obviously due to the fact that PV/Wind/Diesel hybrid systems involve a higher share of renewable energy resources. if weather conditions are favourable. situated close to the Baltic Sea in Northeastern Germany. In regions. accurate assessment of the resources is essential for the decision on the appropriate system design.2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply 9 speed is sufficient.3 PV/Wind and PV/Wind/Diesel In some regions the exploitation of both wind and solar resources can become favourable. A PV/Wind hybrid system is able to provide energy all time of the day. the system was implemented using just wind energy and photovoltaic arrays. being able to feed up to 30% of surplus energy under good performing conditions into the public grid. which is not suitable for some non-household applications. However. In the first stage.1 Biogas Hybrid Systems PV/Wind/Biogas ASE GmbH as the performing organisation has created an autonomous hybrid power supply systems for the purification plant of Körkwitz. the situation is different for PV/Wind systems. being replaced by the diesel generating set when low winds occur over longer periods of time. G. where two different resources complement each other. 2. The PV/Wind/Diesel hybrid system has proven successful in Germany. the objective in designing the system is to maximise the exploitation of the renewable energy resource. it must be doubted whether this effect of further reduction of diesel use can trade off the higher investment and operation costs. the wind turbine is in charge of the provision of energy. breakdowns in energy supply are possible.3. depending on the availability of resources.g.e. Of utmost importance is here that wind and solar energy supply complement each other so that energy provision is possible over the whole year.. the battery maintains a stable system. A. i. being highly reliable and resulting in a further reduction of diesel compared to other hybrid systems. combining any renewable resource with others is conceivable. . For the application in developing countries.2. for a hikers’ inn in the Black Forest of Germany (Kaltschmitt. During short periods of time with low winds. This kind of hybrid system has been implemented e. 2003). While for the other hybrid systems applying diesel gensets. Thus. a PV/Wind hybrid system might ideally be supported by an additional diesel generating set for times of extremely unfavourable weather conditions. 1996).2. combinations in hybrid systems are worth discussing. M.

Generally it is thought that biogas plants instead of diesel gensets as backup for wind or PV systems offer an environmental benign approach towards rural electrification. Especially in winter.3. 2.. However. 1999). wind resources are better at high elevations. additional secondary energy needed from conventional fuels (propane or diesel) accounts for 7-11% of the total amount of electricity. during late summer. 2002a). Wind/Biogas The concept of a Wind/Biogas system is to some degree similar to Wind/Diesel hybrid systems. If the production of biogas is at times not sufficient.2 Hydropower Hybrid Systems Wind/Large Hydropower On a seasonal basis. so that the feasibility of Wind/Large Hydropower systems needs to be assessed for each case individually. 2003). more detailed information could. and the combination of both is then disadvantageous. Micro-hydroelectric generators are turbines that are able to op- . The engine is fuelled by biogas. when river flows are low. both resources might become low. however. Combining three different types of renewable energy systems certainly involves investment costs too high for this purpose. it is unlikely that these resources are combined in a project in developing countries. for some locations the situation might be different. Moreover. while hydro generators on rivers are usually at lower levels. This is due to the fact that the participating companies have been declared insolvent since implementation and the new operator of the systems could not be identified. Depending on the management strategy and the scenario used for the type of consumers. Instead of the diesel genset. the adaptation of this hybrid system for rural electrification in developing countries seems unlikely especially from a financial perspective. which is produced in an anaerobic digester.2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply 10 Information on the performance of the installed system and about the further expansion with biogas could not be obtained within the framework of this work. not be obtained. or some kinds of fuel cells can be used to generate electricity in addition to the wind turbine. microhydropower is more feasible. During the research for this work it was found out that these kind of systems are currently tested in developing countries in South Asia (ITDG. Modelling simulations proved that the availability of wind energy is upgraded by applying biogas systems additionally (Surkow. conventional gases as propane can be used instead. A key role can be assigned to the size of the systems’ gas storage tank and its operating management. so that the potential should be more closely investigated. However. A reasonable statement on the applicability therefore cannot be given here. another energy resource would therefore be necessary.2. However. small gas turbines. since this opportunity does not seem economically attractive. R. For constant electricity generation. Wind/Micro-Hydro and PV/Micro-Hydro While hybrid systems with large-scale hydropower generators seem unattractive. Since the combination of wind and hydropower offers just limited advantages. wind has the potential to take over electricity supply. the two resources wind and hydropower tend to complement each other to some extent (Iowa. here engine generator sets.

Lack of infrastructure for renewable energies One of the key disadvantages of renewable energies is the fact that they apply new and not yet widespread technologies. are briefly summarised below. rapeseed or sunflowers. the application in hybrid systems is advantageous in this respect. Here. producer gas is made from biomass in a fluidised bed gasifier and used to fuel internal combustion engines.2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply 11 erate under low elevation head or low volumetric flow rate conditions. a gasification system might be applied as well.1. generators using vegetable oil for operation offer a potential solution. especially those specific to the adaptation in developing countries. but also common for the use of the single elements.000 hours for generators with capacities less than 30 kW (Kininger. In comparison to other technical devices. The diesel generating set The non-continuous use of diesel generating sets always results in a reduction of lifetime due to the frequent start-up and shut-down procedures. Although the production of vegetable oil requires an additional initial investment. including general technical aspects and problems of the system’s components as well as technical management aspects. To improve the situation of diesel dependence. 2. 2. is still matter of research and currently more applicable for industrial purposes (Iowa..1. a hybrid system applying wind or PV support can be attractive. 2002c). to mention but a few. diesel generating sets are rather sensitive to climatic and geographic conditions. 2002). This. strongly depending on the way of operation. 2002). since here start-up and shut-down procedures are less frequent.5 °C above a temperature of 20 °C (Wuppertal Institute. Instead of conventional diesel gensets. Moreover. frozen in winter). The decrease in efficiency is 1% for every 100 m above sea level. Where rivers have inconsistent flow characteristics (dry in summer. A holistic approach to create this kind of infrastructure and to make the use of renewable energy technologies in developing countries sustainable is imperative for energy planners and development aid organisations. This approach. F. this can be traded off with later cost reduction due to fuel savings. with figures from 1. 2002b). Vegetable oil can be made available by peanut plants. Problems and other general technical aspects. makes their adaptation in developing countries a rather difficult task.2.4.1 General Aspects General problems occurring with the elements of hybrid systems are not only specific for hybrid systems. gas turbines or fuel cells. and the accordingly missing infrastructure for maintenance of renewable energy technologies. In comparison to the application of diesel gensets alone. These plants are often locally available and CO2 neutral.2. motor generating sets have a wide range of operating hours.000 – 80. . being mostly produced in the industrialised countries. as was further outlined in section 2. being suitable for small rivers (Iowa. A careful assessment of water resources is therefore essential.4 Technical Aspects This section gives an overview on different technical aspects related to the application of hybrid systems in developing countries. and another 1% for every 5. however.

The more optimal the performance of the battery bank. 8 Personal Comment given by Mr. Freiburg. overcharge and a low electrolyte level should be avoided. in most cases lead-acid batteries. The optimal performance of this component highly influences not only the system’s performance.8 - - The Charge Controller The charge controller in renewable energy systems has two fundamental functions (IEA. Furthermore. on June 28th. Thus. The end of life of a battery is reached when capacity has declined to 80% of the nominal value. where the nominal value is given by the manufacturer. Deep discharge to less than 50% of the capacity. The following major aspects need to be considered when designing a battery bank for hybrid systems: Capacity Design: When designing a battery bank installation. Therefore. . is of high importance for the system’s reliability and highly influences the system’s maintenance costs (IEA. thus significantly reducing the utilisable capacity. at Intersolar-Fair. The performance of a battery bank is controlled with the help of a charge controller. 2. 1998). 1999a). The charge controller. daily control both of battery acid level and voltage are fundamental. too. Effect of temperature: The nominal capacity is usually given at a battery temperature of 20°C. This is due to the fact that an accurately working charge controller increases performance and lifetime of the battery bank. the storage of power is meant to bypass short times of power shortages. the application of a charge controller is essential. though being one of the least costly components in renewable energy systems. In order to guarantee this. the longer the battery’s lifetime. Georg Weingarten. which guarantees that the battery is neither over-charged nor discharged too deeply. thus reducing the battery’s lifetime significantly. On the other hand. 2003. both high and low temperatures should be avoided as far as possible (IEA. 1999a). High temperatures result in an increase of corrosion velocity of the battery’s electrodes. Low temperatures slow down the chemical reactions inside the battery. resulting in lower overall costs.2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply 12 The Storage System The storage device of hybrid systems. Regulation of the current from the renewable energy generator in order to protect the battery from being overcharged. The use of storage systems in hybrid power plants has a twofold effect: on the one hand. the battery offers support in times of peak demands. Energiebau Solarstromsysteme GmbH. which cannot be met by the renewable energy source alone. 1998): 1. Germany. resulting in the need for suitable operation and management system. it is important to note that a battery’s capacity decreases over lifetime. a battery installation should be designed based on the 80% of the nominal battery capacity (IEA. it also influences the overall performance costs of the system. Most controllers additionally regulate the current to the load in order to protect the battery from discharge. is a very sensitive and crucial part of the system.

This dispatch strategy is commonly quite simple: it can be determined by a low voltage point of the battery and a voltage point at which the battery is fully charged... Energiebau Solarstromsysteme GmbH.e. and when to switch the genset off. without increasing the overall costs significantly. Georg Weingarten. Since the genset is switched on in times the renewable energy resource cannot meet the demand.000 cycles. batteries are also usually the first component suffering from abuse (Turcotte. D. Battery banks in hybrid systems are generally relatively smaller and cycled more than. the control of charge and discharge basically works as it does in systems with just one renewable energy resource. many charge controllers cannot be properly adjusted. Pneumaticos. the main objective of applying charge control is to maximise the battery’s lifetime. 2003. and not only that battery specifications are not always available. however. the loading at which to operate. Since hybrid systems are typically designed for higher loads than pure renewable systems. in hybrid systems relying on renewable energy technologies for power supply alone (i. 1998). charge currents can be rather high. This increases the importance of regular equalisation and makes the cycle life the main factor determining the battery lifetime. 1998). the charge controller is giving the dispatch strategy. Germany. For the aspect of charge control. deciding when to turn it on. 3. the diesel genset runs at full loading. is also to minimise costs for diesel fuel and maintenance (IEA. is different for hybrid systems using diesel gensets as a backup. sometimes it is even left to the user to switch on the genset (IEA. 1998). S.000 – 3. using the power which is not required by the load to charge the battery bank (IEA.2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply 13 For hybrid systems. PV/Wind hybrid systems). Especially if the diesel genset is oversized. Sheriff. i.. 9 Personal Comment given by Mr.e. 2001). This gives potential for more costly controllers with higher functionality. Freiburg. There. A typical cycle life of hybrid systems’ battery banks consists of 2. The fact that power is available on demand in diesel genset supported hybrid systems eliminates many of the vagaries associated with the fluctuating nature of renewable energy resources. 4. which is often difficult. one needs to distinguish two different scenarios: firstly. Main problems related to batteries and the charge controller in hybrid systems include temperature control. on June 28th. in addition to the former. The situation. the objective of system control. in pure photovoltaic systems. F. making the charge control simpler. or to start the genset when the net load. there are four major differences for diesel genset supported hybrid systems compared to “simple” systems with renewable energy technologies alone (IEA. During this time.. exceeds a certain threshold. meaning the load current minus the current available from the renewable energy generators. Concerning the diesel genset itself. 9 2. Other dispatch strategies are to turn on the genset only when the load is reasonably large and to run it at a loading to supply just enough power in order to keep the batteries from being discharged. 1998): 1. . charge controllers are relatively less costly for the overall system. at Intersolar-Fair.

2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply

14

Inverters In cases where the power supplied by the renewable energy generator is given in DC, a DC/AC-inverter needs to be installed additionally. This is due to the fact that most appliances needing AC current are less costly than those requiring DC current. There are different inverter models available, which are not to be discussed within this work. All of these models, however, need to meet the following requirements (Kaltschmitt, M., 2001/2002): optimal adjustment to the renewable energy generator proper energetic inversion to DC current compliance with the principles of netparallel operation

Inverters for hybrid systems are nowadays still considered as problematic and are in need for further development (Turcotte, D.; Sheriff, F.; Pneumaticos, S., 2001). Common problems related to their application in hybrid systems include faults during transition and difficulties in starting the generators. Moreover, available models often loose their parameters when being reset, and some faults additionally require manual reset (Turcotte, D.; Sheriff, F.; Pneumaticos, S., 2001). Modern inverter technologies available on the market not only provide the normal functions of an inverter, but additionally integrate the charge control. These appliances allow with their integrated system management an automatic control of the energy sources, the charging state of the battery and the power demand of the loads. 2.2.4.2 Energy Management Systems Energy Management Systems (EMS) are a modern possibility to improve supply security of hybrid or other systems applying renewable energy resources. It serves the function of the charge controller in a more flexible way, while at the same time serving additional functions. An EMS anticipates expected loads and prioritises them, co-ordinates the application of the different generators and optimises the exploitation of the renewable energy resource, and decreases the maintenance requirements by optimising the operation of the batteries (Benz, J., 2003).

2.3

Grid-based Electrification

Finally, the centralised approach of extending the conventional grid to rural areas is the last option to be described here. Grid-based electricity is delivered to consumers at three different levels (Baur, J., 2000): 1. The electric current produced in conventional central power plants is transported via high-voltage transmission lines at a voltage of 60 – 200 kilovolt over long distances; 2. On a regional level, the electric current is distributed to the villages via mean-voltage grid, normally at a voltage of 10 - 22 kilovolt. 3. Inside the village, the electric current is transformed to the voltage level of 110 – 220/230 volt of the households.

2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply

15

Compared to European standards, the conventional grid in developing countries lacks redundancy. This leads to lower costs on the one hand, but to less reliability on the other hand as well. Grid-based electrification is often highly favoured by rural population despite the problems with reliable electricity supply. However, the extension of the conventional grid is often not feasible from an economic point of view. Factors to be considered include10 distance of the village from the grid, number of households to be connected to the grid within the village, and household density in the villages, meaning the distances between the different houses.

Moreover, the fact that many developing countries are heavily dependent on fossil fuels makes grid-based rural electrification unattractive not only from an economic, but also from an environmental perspective.

10

For further reading see: (Cabraal, A.; Cosgrove-Davies, M.; Schaeffer, L., 1996) and (Baur, J., 2000).

3 Analysis of Impacts

16

3

Analysis of Impacts

Although several projects with hybrid systems for rural electrification have been carried out already, surveys investigating these systems are so far very limited. In fact, no socioeconomic survey discussing the adaptation of hybrid systems in developing countries has been conducted to date. This problem led to the idea of discussing the application of hybrid systems in developing countries not in absolute terms, but rather to compare their sustainability relative to other likely scenarios of rural electrification, which will be defined in the following section. This chapter, thus, aims to analyse the impacts of rural electrification in developing countries with hybrid systems relative to the different technology options presented above. In doing so, it is tried to find out to which degree hybrid system likely provide a sustainable option for rural electrification. The assessment of hybrid systems compared to the different other scenarios is accomplished with a set of indicators, which is developed in 3.2 and 3.3, making possible a comparison on the three dimensions of sustainability: ecological, socio-economic and economic issues.

3.1

Scope of the Analysis

For the assessment, the fictitious case of electrification of a remote village in a rural area in a developing country is discussed. It is assumed that this village is electrified with different scenarios of rural electrification, and their impacts on the three dimensions of sustainability are analysed relative to each other. Table 3.1 gives and overview on the chosen scenarios. Table 3.1 Scenarios and Technologies for Rural Electrification
No. Scenario Technologies PV-Diesel 1 Decentralised Rural Electrification with Hybrid Systems Wind-Diesel PV-Wind 2 3 4 Decentralised Rural Electrification with Diesel Gensets Decentralised Rural Electrification with Renewable Energies Centralised Rural Electrification by Grid Extension Diesel Gensets SHS Biogas Country dependent

3.1.1 Scenario Definitions This section outlines the underlying assumptions for the different scenarios for rural electrification, as they will be used for the assessment in the following. Scenario 1: Hybrid Systems The analysis of the different hybrid systems is here restricted to those which have been applied already in developing countries, namely the combinations PV/Diesel, Wind/Diesel and PV/Wind. The reason to leave out potential other technologies, as they were presented in

Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets The comparison of hybrid systems with diesel gensets is based on the assumption that the considered rural village is for this scenario supplied by a diesel-based mini-grid. which more detailed information could be obtained for. Scenario 3: Renewable Energies For electrification of rural villages with renewable energies. if necessary. only a more limited number of the technical options will be available. Where appropriate. It is assumed that the households of the considered village are electrified each with a SHS. accepting that the comparison with a hybrid village system is to some extent not accurate. However. . on the other hand. but usually for household electrification only. two typical options are investigated here in comparison to hybrid systems: SHS and biogas systems. the relevant combinations of hybrid systems are discussed as a whole. It is obvious that in practical cases. for the assessment of hybrid systems it is seen as important to include grid extension as well in order to accurately determine the quality of hybrid system electrification. the electrification of non-electrified areas has been regarded as essential to economic and social development during the Earth Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg. Scenario 4: Grid Extension The extension of the conventional grid to remote rural areas is in most cases unlikely due to usually large distances of rural villages to the grid and the corresponding considerable investment necessary for the extension. However. it is here often referred to experiences of two projects on rural electrification with hybrid systems. meaning that a generator is applied for producing electricity. SHS are accounted here because they are applied widely nowadays. Since SHS are not used for productive purposes. Biogas systems are investigated as village systems for electrification of the considered remote village. This is due to two reasons: on the one hand. this is accounted for here. they are discussed each for themselves. For the assessment of hybrid systems.3. not under the guidance of development cooperation organisations. However. The scenario “Rural area without electrification” is not included in the analysis. it is thought that the comparison with SHS will be supportive to identify the circumstances under which the application of hybrid systems is reasonable with regard to sustainability.3 Analysis of Impacts 17 chapter 2. It is rather a debate on principles but a question of analytical discussion. The hybrid systems discussed here are designed for 24-hours electrification of a remote rural village. since it is seen as inappropriate for being discussed here. 2002.2. the comparison of non-electrified areas with the electrification by different technologies seems to be inadequate in technical terms anyway. it is supposed that natural and other conditions for the realisation of the considered technical alternatives are given. The different scenarios are all discussed as real application scenarios. These projects took place in Inner Mongolia and Indonesia. operated by a private operator and being implemented privately. and will be presented as examples in detail in chapter 4. is that this kind of assessment would be based on too many assumptions and therefore be too speculative. which means that ideal conditions are not assumed.

3. summarising complex information and. The calculation of investment and electricity generating costs for the assessment of economic sustainability is then performed for different village sizes for the same location. The need for such an indicator system. Source: Meteosat. indicator sets have been developed and used to provide information on the state of sustainability of production processes or societies as a whole. 3.1. Indicators are used to give a comprehensive view on sustainability. The main assumptions are presented in the following.664 kWh/m2/a.126 kWh/a. . how- 11 Global radiation: 1. For the task of evaluating the sustainability of different energy technology concepts.2 Modelling Assumptions For the assessment of parts of the ecological and economic dimension. the details of the calculations can be found in Annex A. This electricity demand is then met with the different scenarios for rural electrification in order to comparatively assess hybrid systems.11 Although this location is not situated in a developing country. The annual consumption results from a calculated specific consumption per household and an additional 40% excess consumption for productive purposes. the annual peak demand of the village was determined according to different possible village sizes. Trapani/Italy was chosen as an example with moderately suited weather conditions. Most commonly. leaving much space for discussion and interpretation.3 Analysis of Impacts 18 Parts of the ecological and economic analysis in the following could not be performed in general terms and required an accurate modelling of the considered remote village and the installed hybrid systems. Especially. and 1:2 in the case of PV/Wind systems. the latter concept of indicators for societies as a whole has gained importance by understanding the global dimension of sustainability. The hybrid systems are then designed accordingly to meet this demand with the ratio 4:1 in the cases of PV/Diesel and Wind/Diesel systems. thus.2 The Concept of Indicators of Sustainability Measuring the degree of sustainability obviously is a difficult task. no approved indicator system has been developed yet. the comparison with weather data from several other locations revealed that this location makes a generalised statement possible by offering average conditions. creating a transparent and simplified system to provide information on the degree of sustainability both to decision-makers and the interested public. A system trying to describe and to quantify the degree of sustainability is the concept of indicators for sustainable development. of which some of the most known on an international level have been set up by the Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The assessment of ecological issues is performed for a village with 170 households with a calculated annual peak electricity consumption of 48. A number of indicator sets have been developed. For the design of the hybrid systems to electrify a village in Trapani.

3 0.1 0.05 12 Compare for example: (Aßmann. T. evaluating their current state of sustainability relative to each other.3 0. however. Marheineke.3 0.. provide the basis for the indicator set being developed within this work. In a next step.3 Developing an Indicator Set for Energy Technologies Available indicator sets for measuring the sustainability of energy technologies have been found to be inappropriate within the framework of this work since they are commonly adapted to the conditions of industrialised rather than to those in developing countries and they include too many indicators.4 0.1 0. . W.1 0. M. 3. 12 On the one hand... They do. Krewitt. This led to the following set of indicators: Table 3. 2000). and also offering a comprehensive view on the their weak points from a perspective of sustainability. it allows a “relative” comparison of different technologies.1 0. Friedrich.1 0. the three dimensions of sustainability – ecological. the results being obtained by such an indicator set can provide a data base for the evaluation of the sustainability of a society as a whole. D. is apparent and has been highlighted in a number of studies already. a set of indicators measuring these criteria was developed.. with the indicators weighted relative to their importance for the respective dimension according to the author’s opinion. On the other hand. In a first step.2 Criteria and Indicators for the Assessment of Energy Technologies Dimension Criteria Climate Protection Ecology Resource Protection Noise Reduction Indicator Greenhouse Gas Emissions per kWh Emissions of Air Pollutants per kWh Consumption of Unlasting Resources Noise Pollution Cultural Compatibility and Acceptance SocioEconomic Issues Overall SocioEconomic Matters Degree of Supply Equity Potential for Participation and Empowerment Potential for Economic Development Individual SocioEconomic Interests Low Costs and Tariffs Economic Issues Maintenance Economic Independence Future Potential Employment Effects Impacts on Health Investment Costs per W Electricity Generating Costs per kWh Maintenance Requirements Degree of Import Dependence and Regional Self-Supply Supply Security Degree of know-how Improvement Weighting 0.. 2003) or (Nill. Voß. R..1 0.25 0.3 0.2 0.3 Analysis of Impacts 19 ever. A.2 0.1 0. socio-economic and economic issues – needed to be broken down to a set of criteria describing these issues.

The extent to which technologies meet this objective should be weighted accordingly. . a detailed determination of differences can only be discussed on concrete case studies. gender issues are not taken into account although this issue might be important in individual cases. the criteria of low costs and tariffs as well as maintenance are seen as most important criteria because of their high influence on the success of electrification projects.3 Analysis of Impacts 20 The discussion of the relevance of the different indicators to the three dimensions of sustainability is left to the sections below. D.3 Performance Assessment Scheme 2 Comparatively very good performance 1 0 -1 Comparatively poor performance -2 Comparatively very poor performance Average performComparatively good ance or no statement performance possible 13 As examples: (Barkat. aiming to analyse the three dimensions of sustainability as comprehensive as possible. Among these criteria. - In order to come to a conclusion on the performance of hybrid systems on the three dimensions of sustainability. Maintenance. DomDom. et al. where each indicator is presented and analysed for different energy technology options. A. A. can be covered by other means.13 However. the indicator of electricity generating costs is seen as being of highest importance because these costs are to be covered by the customers directly.. while this work needs to stay on a more generalised level.. The comparative assessment of hybrid systems with the other scenarios of rural electrification with regard to the different indicators is done with the following assessment scheme: Table 3. weighted high as well. for example donor organisations. The weighting of the indicators is explained as follows: For the ecological dimension. This set of indicators tries to give a holistic picture. moreover. The discussion of sustainability in this chapter does not account for benefits or problems related to electrification in general. 2002) and (Barnes. The constricted number of indicators allows to give significant statements on the chosen criteria by being investigated intensively. meanwhile. the indicators are then summarised for each dimension individually according to their respective weight for the dimension. 2002). emphasis is given to climate and resource protection due to their high importance for environmental sustainability. and the assessment of these kinds of general benefits of rural electrification has been matter of a lot of research work during the last years. For the economic dimension.. For the socio-economic dimension. investment costs. thus. the indicators for economic development and employment effects are emphasised in the weighting due to the fact that economic development is one of the major objectives of rural electrification. is of key importance for the reliable performance of the electricity supply system and. As an example.

14 15 CO2 = carbon dioxide. and Emissions of Air Pollutants per kWh. shall be shown as a relative comparison rather than as in absolute figures. CO = carbon monoxide.de/service/gemis/. The details of the modelling assumptions and a detailed discussion of the results can be found in Annex B. and compares them relative to the other options for rural electrification.e.oeko. Air pollutants are emitted in combustion processes as well.4 Analysis of Sustainability This section analyses hybrid systems on the three dimensions of sustainability with the help of the indicators set up above.1. The emission of air pollutants is here measured in SO2-Equivalents per kWh. 16 Available at: http://www. and South Africa) are chosen as representatives. then. dust or CO15 due to their acidification potential. however. N2O = nitrous oxide (laughing gas). . gives chapter for a justification of the results. this section presents only the assessment for hybrid systems in detail.3 Analysis of Impacts 21 It must be emphasised at this point that this assessment scheme only gives information on the relative sustainability of the different scenarios compared to each other. operation. CO2Equivalents aggregate the different greenhouse gas emissions as CO2. For the extension of the conventional grid. SO2-Equivalents aggregate different air pollutants like SO2.4. recycling. Greenhouse Gas Emissions per kWh. since it is not a detailed life cycle assessment. 3. For the relative comparison with the other scenarios. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are here measured in CO2-Equivalents per kWh. They can be assessed with the help of GEMIS (Global Emission Model for Integrated Systems). NOx. production. All of these emissions occur not only during operation of energy supply systems. transport. the main results are presented here. For a better reading. only the results are presented here.1 Climate Protection The degree of climate sustainability is here determined with two different indicators. CH4 = methane. CH4 or N2O14 due to their contribution to the greenhouse effect over a time frame of 100 years. three country examples (Brazil. All of these gases are emitted as products of combustion processes. Conclusions on an absolute degree of sustainability cannot be drawn from this. a free download software provided by the German Öko-Institut. For the modelling in GEMIS. but during their whole life cycle including i. SO2 = sulphur oxide.4. Annex C. this electricity demand was met with the different technology scenarios.16 The results of this analysis. are closely linked to the occurrence of acid rain and have severe impacts on human health. China. 3.1 Ecological Dimension 3. NOx = nitrogen oxide.

4. The GHG emissions resulting from diesel-based hybrid systems are higher due to the application of the diesel genset.3 Analysis of Impacts 22 3. PV/Wind systems result in lower greenhouse gas emissions than all other scenarios except SHS.1 GEMIS Results: Greenhouse Gas Emissions The comparison of GHG emissions per kWh shows that especially PV/Wind hybrid systems are highly preferential.1 shows the modelling results of GHG emissions attributable to the different scenarios for meeting the electricity demand of the chosen village.000 30.000 40.000 10.000 0 PV/ Wind/ PV/ Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South China Diesel Diesel Wind Af rica Figure 3. which similar greenhouse gas emissions can be attributed to. 60. Purely renewable hybrid systems as PV/Wind are here performing even better than dieselbased systems.1.1. diesel-based hybrid systems are advantageous.1 Greenhouse Gas Emissions per kWh Scenario Comparison Figure 3. The scenario of grid extension is described with the chosen countries Brazil. It shows that hybrid systems can be assessed as being supportive for the objective of decreasing GHG emissions compared to conventional energy systems.000 20. .000 Greenhouse Gases [kg CO2-Equivalents] 50. Figure 3. Compared to conventional energy systems.2 summarises the results of the analysis of GHG emissions on the basis of the comparative assessment scheme. their performance is therefore worse. In comparison to purely renewable energy systems. South Africa and China. however.

PV/Wind systems are advantageous in any case. The comparison with the conventional grid clearly shows a high dependence on the respective energy sources used in such grids.2 Emissions of Air Pollutants per kWh Scenario Comparison The comparison of emissions of air pollutants again shows a preference for the PV/Wind system.4. Diesel-based mini-grids result in the highest amount of air pollutants due to NOx emissions in the combustion process. They are therefore strongly disadvantageous in this respect. These emissions result mainly from sulphur bound in the substrate.1.3 GEMIS Results: Emissions of Air Pollutants While SHS almost do not result in any emission of air pollutants due to the absence of a combustion process. the application of diesel-based hybrid systems is associated with more emissions of air pollutants compared to the grid of Brazil. 800 Air Pollutants [kg SO2-Equivalents] 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 PV/ Wind/ PV/ Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South China Diesel Diesel Wind Africa Figure 3.3 Analysis of Impacts 23 2 1 0 PV/ Diesel -1 -2 Wind/ Diesel PV/ Wind Diesel SHS Biogas Grid Extension Figure 3. The other hybrid systems suffer in their performance mainly from the emission of NOx in the combustion process of the diesel generator. the amount of air pollutants is considerable in the case of biogas. China and South Africa rely mainly on coal with the associated high SO2-emissions from sulphur bound in the coal. .1.2 Comparative Assessment of GHG Emissions 3. Thus. While Brazil applies mainly hydroelectric power and therefore hardly has significant emissions of air pollutants. while they emit less air pollutants compared to the grids of China and South Africa.

Wind/Diesel and biogas systems.4 Comparative Assessment of Air Pollutants Emissions 3.5. PV/Wind systems and SHS are evaluated to perform comparatively best. A comparatively good performance can be attributed to PV/Diesel. Scenario Comparison The comparison of CED with GEMIS shows expected results: fossil fuelled scenarios involve a higher amount of non-renewable energy for the production of energy.17 It is therefore a measure to describe the extent to which renewable and non-renewable energy resources are consumed in order to provide electricity. For the assessment.3 Analysis of Impacts 24 For the comparative assessment. The conventional grid is concluded to perform worst with regard to the emission of air pollutants.4. GEMIS is used as well.2 Resource Protection The degree of resource protection is here measured with the help of the indicator “Consumption of unlasting Resources”. This shows the assessment with GEMIS in Figure 3. both during operation and for the construction of the power plant. The reason to investigate the CED rather than just the consumption of non-renewable resources is that the depletion of all resources is crucial for the environmental performance of energy systems. which is a measure for the whole effort on energy resources (primary energy) caused by the provision of products or services. because most developing countries apply a significant share of fossil resources for electricity generation. the availability of unlasting renewable energy resources as for example firewood is to be ensured as well. 2 1 0 PV/ Diesel -1 -2 Wind/ Diesel PV/ Wind Diesel SHS Biogas Grid Extension Figure 3. . 17 Source: GEMIS. GEMIS investigates the cumulative energy demand (CED) in kWh.1.

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25

250.000 200.000 CED [kWh] 150.000 100.000 50.000 0 PV/ Wind/ PV/ Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South China Diesel Diesel Wind Africa Non-renew able Renew able Others

Figure 3.5 GEMIS Results: Cumulative Energy Demand of Primary Energy Thus, here again PV/Wind systems are to be distinguished from diesel-based hybrid systems. PV/Wind systems involve a similar CED as do biogas systems and slightly more than SHS, while diesel-based systems here come out worse. While in comparison to diesel gensets, all hybrid systems perform better with regard to CED, the situation is different concerning the conventional grid. Since the CED as well strongly depends from the energy mix of the respective countries, it is here decided to give preference just to PV/Wind systems and rank diesel-based hybrid systems similar to the conventional grid. Figure 3.6 summarises the results of the assessment of this indicator on the basis of the assessment scheme.
2 1 0 PV/ Diesel -1 -2 Wind/ Diesel PV/ Wind Diesel SHS Biogas Grid Extension

Figure 3.6 Comparative Assessment of Resource Consumption

3.4.1.3 Noise Reduction Noise reduction is here measured with the help of the indicator „Noise Pollution”. Noise is a ubiquitous environmental problem, being more than just disturbing. A stringent interpretation of the term “health” as given by the World Health Organisation (WHO) allows to call noise a health problem (WHO, 1948). The effects of noise on health reach from aural detriment or deterioration to extra-aural health problems or the perturbation of well-being (Helfer, M., 1998/1999).

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26

Although the absolute figure of noise pollution measured in decibel is of importance to measure the effect on human health, it is here abandoned to do so. This is due to the fact that on the one hand reliable data could not be obtained; on the other hand mitigation measures on severe noise pollution are available and applied in developing countries as well.18 Thus, this section is based on own assessment of the author, leaving out noise being generated during construction phase, as this applies to all scenarios. Assessment of Hybrid Systems PV modules do not create noise during operation. For the case of a PV/Diesel system, thus, the diesel genset is the only part generating noise during operation and through start-up and shut-down procedures. The noise originated by the diesel genset, however, can well be cushioned by building a capsule, i.e. a powerhouse, which is taken into consideration for the assessment here. Wind turbines create an additional buzzing noise by their rotating wings. This effect can be recognised as being disturbing. Moreover, the power distribution lines of the mini-grid further contribute with a buzzing noise as well. Scenario Comparison The comparison of the impacts of the different technologies shows a disadvantage of windbased hybrid systems, being due to the noise generated by the wind turbines.
2 1 0 PV/ Diesel -1 -2 Wind/ Diesel PV/ Wind Diesel SHS Biogas Grid Extension

Figure 3.7 Comparative Assessment of Noise Pollution For PV/Diesel hybrid systems, the assessment here is less negative. Still, the application of the diesel genset is disadvantageous in comparison to SHS. For the comparison with diesel gensets, hybrid systems are all seen as advantageous, because cushioning measures are usually not applied for diesel gensets in developing countries. The comparatively good performance of the extension of the conventional grid on this indicator results from the fact that electricity generation does not take place in the village itself, by this not being disturbing to its inhabitants.

18

Personal Comment given by Georg Kraft, German Bank for Reconstruction (KfW), on July 7th, 2003 in Frankfurt/Main, Germany.

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27

3.4.2 Socio-Economic Dimension 3.4.2.1 Overall Socio-Economic Matters The discussion of overall social matters, reflecting overall interests and needs for sustainable social development, is based on a number of different indicators: Cultural Compatibility and Acceptance, Degree of Supply Equity, Degree of Participation and Empowerment, and Potential for Economic Development.

3.4.2.1.1 Cultural Compatibility and Acceptance Cultural Compatibility and Acceptance can be seen as key factors for project developers in developing countries. The history of development aid projects has many examples of projects, which failed due to a lack of cultural compatibility and the corresponding lack of acceptance. This indicator, thus, tries to investigate whether major cultural obstacles exist and whether this or other factors can lead to problems with regard to acceptance. It is obvious that an assessment of cultural compatibility and acceptance in global terms can just be rather vague. Especially cultural compatibility varies strongly not only between countries, but even within different regions. However, it is tried here to assess the cultural compatibility of hybrid systems by extracting experiences obtained within projects and by referring to studies addressing this issue. For this purpose, detailed information only on two projects in Inner Mongolia and Indonesia could be reviewed, because other detailed project reports could not be obtained. Assessment of Hybrid Systems The final reports of projects applying hybrid systems for rural electrification in Inner Mongolia (GTZ, 2003) and Indonesia (Preiser, K. et al., 2000) do not indicate that cultural reservations must be anticipated. Neither is there any evidence that rural electrification through solar or wind energy would reveal any potential cultural obstacles.19 However, although cultural compatibility is likely not to be problematic, problems with the acceptance of the application of hybrid system can always arise from poor system performance.20 Commonly, rural population is familiar with good-quality energy services through information given by relatives or friends who live in grid-electrified urban areas. A system promising electrification on a 24-hours basis, but not working reliably, can soon lead to dissatisfaction. Moreover, it can be expected that in areas where renewable energies have not been applied yet, hybrid systems will be met with scepticism and caution by rural population.

19

Personal Comment given by Jörg Baur, GTZ, in Eschborn/Germany on August 14th, 2003. 20 In Subang/Indonesia, for example, it was observed that consumers were dissatisfied due to technical failures or temporary breakdowns of a PV/Diesel hybrid systems. Thus, a connection to the grid was stated to be preferential by the consumers (Preiser, K., et al., 2000).

but just very limited information could be obtained. priority is given to the matter of equal access to electricity. Assessment of Hybrid Systems By being a decentralised system.3 Analysis of Impacts 28 Scenario Comparison The comparison as being presented in Annex C. .2.4. thus. but also on own estimations by the author as well as on conversations with project co-ordinators of the GTZ. Low total costs are used as an additional criterion for the comparative assessment. This section is.. The assessment of cultural compatibility shows that conventional technologies as grid extension and diesel gensets are likely to result in less cultural obstacles or problems of acceptance since these technologies are wellknown to rural population.8 Comparative Assessment of Cultural taboos associated with dealing with Compatibility and Acceptance excrements.22 This restricts the application of hybrid systems for the electrification of rural villages to areas with some economic and financial potential. 2003. faces severe cultural obstacles due to religious or social Figure 3. and both need to be taken into account here: Access to electricity services can be hampered by existing structures of political power. it is assumed that the use of renewable energy technologies is a rather unknown approach for most people in rural areas. 3.2 Degree of Supply Equity Supply equity basically refers to two different aspects. 2000).21 In the assessment. hybrid systems offer the possibility to supply energy equally to everybody within the village. Without taking external costs into account. However. Surveys and project descriptions dealing with electrification in developing countries have been analysed. Moreover. based not only on literature. however. 2 1 0 -1 -2 Hybrid Systems Diesel Genset SHS Biogas Grid Extension Biogas. supply equity is not a matter of course in decentralised systems and should not be overestimated. From a financial perspective. hybrid systems are relatively expensive regarding both investment and operation costs.2 is based on the assumption that all systems are working well. The way of implementation and existing structures of political power in the village itself can be obstacles for supply equity as well. K. et al. 14th. Low total costs make electricity affordable to people of almost any income class. widely independent from national political matters. 21 22 With Jörg Baur and Roman Ritter.1.. The Indonesian project proofs that population of a hybrid-powered village does not feel discriminated with energy distribution compared to other customers (Preiser. in Eschborn/Germany on August.

The fact that hybrid systems are applied at a certain limited capacity. For a future sustainable energy system it is essential not only to provide energy in a clean and inexpensive way. which is not very surprising since the decentralised nature and the avoiding of fossil resources are major advantages of renewable energies.2. Another aspect to be considered is empowerment: increased understanding and participation of the interested public in a development context provides the opportunity of increasing empowerment. Scenario Comparison The comparison shows a great potential for hybrid systems on capacity building for energy issues. but also to make customers aware of the fact that energy is limited and saving of energy therefore important. and therefore by their nature less able to guarantee longterm equal access to electricity. since especially in Indonesia the capacity installed was too low to meet the demand.3 Analysis of Impacts 29 Scenario Comparison The analysis of supply equity shows a preference to decentralised systems in general and especially to those applying renewable energies.1. Electricity is also produced within the village itself. Biogas plants come off better than hybrid systems due to the lower total costs associated with their application. Not only that the installed capacity is limited and does not allow unlimited consumption of electricity.4. hybrid systems are likely to improve people’s understanding in matters of energy provision. which improves understanding and empowerment. come to the conclusion that people are willing and able to learn about the system. The provision of fossil resources as well as the conventional grid are often subject to political changes and interference. SHS come off better concerning supply equity. however. 2 1 0 -1 -2 Hybrid Systems Diesel Genset SHS Biogas Grid Extension Among the renewable energies.9 Comparative Assessment of Supply Equity 3.3 Potential for Participation and Empowerment This section aims to discuss whether hybrid systems are likely to contribute to capacity building on matters of energy. and by which people can learn about issues of electricity production. Since hybrid systems are discussed here for the application on community level. but provide electricity the whole day. preference is given to household units. and that people were also willing to adapt to the restrictions that were set. Figure 3. However. as do decentralised electricity generation in general. Both projects did apply certain consumption restrictions to the consumers. Assessment of Hybrid Systems The experiences made in the projects in Indonesia and in Inner Mongolia do not create a consistent picture of the ability of hybrid systems to improve knowledge on energy saving measures. is a good mixture for capacity building and empowerment. Both project reports. .

For hybrid systems.4. However.. the stability and flexibility of the system. 2000).2. proof the necessity of careful demand forecasts as will be discussed in chapter 5. the good quality of the produced electricity as well as the possibility to install high capacities make hybrid systems very favourable.Figure 3.1. but are matter of the implementation process and cannot be considered for a comparative assessment. 2002). 2 1 0 -1 Hybrid Systems Diesel Genset SHS Biogas Grid Extension Biogas plants. This is due to the fact that energy services are commonly seen as essential for economic development: lighting. For hybrid systems applying tion and Empowerment biogas plants as backup.5.1. however.. because they require a high degree of user involve. for example. and experiences made particularly in connection with SHS. the conclusion can be drawn that they offer a good potential for economic development. K. A. because once electricity is available. .10 Comparative Assessment of Participament. A. Complementary measures need to be taken in order to ensure economic development. the demand is likely to increase. the projects in Indonesia and Inner Mongolia did apply certain restrictions on the use of electricity. show that electrification results in a higher number of people being employed. which can be installed at and technically easily extended to comparatively high capacities. in Indonesia some customers even evaluated the quality higher than that of the conventional public grid (Preiser. for example.3 Analysis of Impacts 30 People need to understand the limited nature of energy in order to properly exploit the installed capacity of hybrid systems and in order to give every user in the community the same possibility to use electricity.4. have greater -2 potential compared to the hybrid systems investigated here... These examples. 2002). electrification allows handicraft enterprises to apply more power tools and to increase their productivity. even among household without access to electricity (Barkat. but not as only necessary measure. If an adequate capacity is installed. the assessment would be different. et al. they can supply electricity on a 24 hours basis. and people in general have more time for enhanced commercial activities during the day if they have lighting for doing their household chores in the evenings. allows shop owners or handicraft enterprises to extend their commercial activities to the evenings. moreover.2.. As a result. 3. et al. Both projects experienced that the installed capacity of the systems soon was unable to meet the demand since people employed more and more electric appliances. which was not expected especially in Indonesia. Experiences made in Bangladesh. they are normally meeting the needs. a significant share of annual income could be attributed to electricity in Bangladesh (Barkat. electrification should be seen as essential for economic development.4 Potential for Economic Development The indicator “Potential for Economic Development” certainly is of major importance for the assessment of the sustainability of energy technologies. Under quality aspects of electricity provision. Assessment of Hybrid Systems As already mentioned in section 3.. et al.3.

11 Comparative Assessment of Potential practically no limitations to commer.2. The expansion of renewable energy technologies in Germany has shown that the provision of energy services gains importance. J. Fenhann.2. Demand-side-management to optimise appliances and con- 23 (Barkat.4. J. and Impacts on Health.for Economic Development cial activities on rural village level has higher potential for economic development.. K. J.2 Individual Social Interests The criterion individual social interests will be discussed with the two indicators Employment Effects..4. et al. 3. no studies at all were found investigating employment effects of hybrid systems explicitly. service and maintenance of renewable energy systems will occur as was already experienced with SHS (Nieuwenhout. 2 1 0 -1 -2 Hybrid Systems Diesel Genset SHS Biogas Grid Extension Just the conventional grid by offering Figure 3.D. the effects of different technology options on employment are important. For this issue it was therefore tried to draw conclusions from surveys investigating the effects on employment of renewable energies in Germany. renewable energy technologies as wind energy are relatively more labour intensive (Scheelhasse.3 Analysis of Impacts 31 Scenario Comparison Hybrid systems show a good advantage on economic development in comparison to other decentralised rural electrification options. Only fragmentary information could be obtained on employment effects attributable to the application of different energy technologies in developing countries in general.1 Employment Effects In order to create a sustainable energy system in developing countries. 3.2.. continuity of electricity supply or commonly installed capacities. but are also likely to occur due to manufacturing and maintenance processes related to the application of the energy technology in the village. 2000). et al. F. because these other systems are problematic with regard to issues as reliability.. Assessment of Hybrid Systems Compared to conventional power plant technologies. A. 2002).. Haker. 2002) reveals that access to electricity results in a higher number of people employed even among non-electrified households in the village. Case studies in Africa expect that the decentralised nature of manufacturing of technologies as solar energy is likely to result in wide-spread employment opportunities (Painuly. sales. 1999). Socio-economic surveys on rural electrification in general reveal that employment effects are likely to occur and can directly be attributed to electrification.J.. . It can generally be expected that employment opportunities in production..23 Employment effects can result from enhanced economic activities as a result of lighting on the one hand.

This is mainly due to the fact 0 that renewable energies are relatively Hybrid Diesel SHS Biogas Grid -1 labour intensive on the one hand.4.2. too.. Systems Genset Extension which makes them favourable com-2 pared to conventional options as diesel gensets. Haker. Scenario Comparison The comparison of hybrid systems 2 with other electrification scenarios shows a good potential for hybrid sys1 tems. burn biomass for cooking. 3. is taken into consideration here. There are no emissions during operation resulting from the use of the renewable energy technologies. which are not electrified. their higher potential on economic development and therefore employment opportunities than for hybrid systems is attenuated by lower potential for employment attributable to production or maintenance of the energy system. This. which reveal that rural health clinics could improve their medical services due to electrification. The example of Inner Mongolia shows that hybrid systems indeed provide the possibility to improve the situation for rural health clinics reliably on a 24 hours basis.. cannot be quantified here.2. Biogas systems. X-ray and sonography equipment can be used for better diagnosis of illnesses. are seen as preferential compared to hybrid systems with regard to the fact that many system components of biogas plants can be produced inside the respective countries. thus directly affecting human health (GTZ. . On the other hand they have good potential for economic develop. Assessment of Hybrid Systems Hybrid systems emit corrosive gases during operation of the diesel genset. For the extension of the conventional grid. which makes them favourable compared to options as SHS. Other sources of soot and fumes are candles and kerosene lamps.3 Analysis of Impacts 32 sumption is likely to have significant employment effects (Scheelhasse. fume and particles. To which extent this observation might apply to developing countries as well. Moreover. K. Critical corrosive gases emitted by diesel gensets are NOx. The electrification of rural health clinics is a main application for hybrid systems of smaller capacities. however. 2003). Due to this usually incomplete combustion process. 1999).2 Impacts on Health The relevance of this indicator derives from the experience that people in areas. refrigerators can be used to store vaccines. J. by this creating more employment opportunities than in the case of hybrid systems. corrosive gases are generated with negative impacts on human health. Another aspect concerning human health refers to experiences with rural electrification. by this creating employment ment Effects opportunities.12 Comparative Assessment of Employment.Figure 3.

not only for lighting purposes. moreover.4. Low electricity generating costs per kWh allow customers to apply more technical devices.3. they are seen as advan0 tageous compared to diesel gensets Hybrid Diesel SHS Biogas Grid and SHS. While biogas is seen as -1 Systems Genset Extension preferable due to further effects on -2 overall cleanliness.3 Economic Dimension 3.4. a cost analysis for hybrid systems was performed based on cost data obtained by project developers and system providers and for the location of Trapani/Italy.3 Analysis of Impacts 33 Scenario Comparison Due to the fact that hybrid systems can 2 well provide electricity to rural health clinics. but also for commercial activities. hardly result in 1 exhaust fumes. Electricity generating costs per kWh. For the assessment of costs and tariffs. The following basic assumptions were made: . Investment costs must be seen as a major hurdle for the implementation of electrification projects. Figure 3. but also affordability of electricity services on the other hand are essential matters of investigation in the planning process of these projects. If first investment is too high and requires substantial financial expenditure. the extension of the conventional grid brings out similar health effects as do hybrid systems. Willingness-to-pay on the one hand.13 Comparative Assessment of Impacts on Health 3. and. potential customers are likely to decide for a cheaper option.1 Low Costs and Tariffs The question of low costs and tariffs mainly depends on three different aspects: Investment costs per W. Low costs and tariffs in general are key factors for the successful realisation and sustainable operation of electrification projects. not accounting for the fact that electricity generating costs in the end might be lower.

18th. G. Cables.3 additionally gives an overview on cost estimations made by other organisations in order to make the picture as comprehensive as possible. others: own estimation The cost analysis was performed for different village sizes of 30 to 300 households and. in Eschborn/Germany on August 14th.1068 × Source Schueco24   P  25  [€/kW] kW  P   [€/kW] kW  For Plants ≥ 10 kW: Costs = 2016.4 Main Assumptions for the Cost Analysis Type of Costs Costs/Details Specific Investment PV Modules: 400 €/kWp Specific Investment Wind Power Plants (incl. Inverter and Charge Controller 10 years Cost data SMA KfW27 Schueco28 Own estimations GTZ 29 Own assumption For PV and Wind: (Sauer. The electricity generating costs were calculated with the annuity method for diesel fuel prices of 0.3 Analysis of Impacts 34 Table 3. 500Ah battery.. D. Koerner during a telephone interview on August.63 × exp − 0.1 to 1 € per litre. 18th.. 4. the batteries are designed for a storage capacity of 2 days Inverter and Charge Controller “Sunny Island”. former KfW staff member. during a telephone interview on August. 2003.7 × exp − 0. Maintenance and Repair: Annually 4% of total investment Interest Rate: 6% Miscellaneous Lifetime system components: PV modules 20 years. accordingly. different system capacities. Internal Wiring: 6000 € Cabinets. 2003. 2003). The details of the calculation can be found in Annex D. 2003. 18th.0394 ×   Own calculation based on available cost data (see Annex D) Investment   P   [€/kW] kW  Schueco 26 Battery bank: 333 €/kWh for a 12V. 2003. 22nd. 29 Personal Recommendation Jörg Baur. 26 Personal Comment Mr. 28 Personal Comment Mr.5kW: 5000 € Planning. 25 P = Installed capacity. GTZ. Wind generator 12 years. Battery 5 years. Support: 2000 € Operating Costs Manpower. Annex D. 2003. . Assembly and Commissioning: 15% of total investment Transport: 1000 € Local grid. 27 Personal Recommendation Mr. H. Koerner during a telephone interview on August. Geis.. Puls. 24 Personal Comment Mr. Diesel genset 10 years. Bopp. Tower): For Plants ≤ 10kW: Costs = 4309 × exp − 0. Koerner during a telephone interview on August.007 × Diesel Genset: Costs = 345.

23 – 9. . The results in Table 3. which are presented in more detail in Annex D.21 €/W for PV/Wind household systems.03 to 3. Therefore. inverters or other devices may significantly reduce investment costs.5 €/W for Wind/Diesel village systems and 2.3.4. This is proven by a number of examples collected from other organisations. Locally produced batteries.20 8.05 – 10.6 gives an overview on typical investment costs for the other scenarios of rural electrification. Table 3.5 Specific Investment Costs of Hybrid Systems System PV/Diesel Systems Wind/Diesel Systems PV/Wind Systems at 2 days battery capacity PV/Wind Systems at 1 day battery capacity Share in Electricity Generation 4:1 4:1 1:2 1:2 Range of Investment Costs [€/W] 8.03 to 4. Scenario Comparison Table 3.8 €/W for PV/Diesel village systems. charge controllers.5 indicate that the size of the battery highly influences the specific investment costs. the following results were obtained for the specific investment costs per W for villages with 30 to 300 households.00 6. the quality of the components and the specific characteristics of the location.1. In the investment costs analysis. but should rather be seen as indicative. 3.86 – 9.3. cost data was collected from various other institutions. This implies that PV/Wind systems are likely to be cost-competitive with the other hybrid systems only where weather conditions are favourable enough to guarantee electricity supply with smaller battery banks. 3. the here obtained investment costs for hybrid systems cannot be generalised for all cases. the influence of the battery capacity on investment costs was investigated by varying the storage capacity. more suitable locations with regard to weather conditions strongly influence the system design and can therefore decrease investment costs.18 For PV/Wind systems. moreover. they need to be taken with caution.30 to 4.44 9. By this it is tried to find out at which level of the different cost ranges hybrid systems are positioned. Since these costs are based on data from German manufacturers.1 Investment Costs per W Assessment of Hybrid Systems Assessing the initial investment necessary for hybrid systems is a difficult task since it depends strongly on the chosen system configuration. These investment costs vary between 3.67 – 12.3 Analysis of Impacts 35 For the comparison with the other electrification scenarios.

F. For the case of a remote village. the construction of power distribution lines account for 80 to 90% of the overall investment. The investment cost calculations for hybrid systems from other sources. Schaeffer.6 Investment Costs of Different Scenarios for Rural Electrification System Diesel Genset SHS Biogas Grid Extension Range of Investment Costs 0. however. 2003) The comparison of this data with those for hybrid systems calculated here reveals the following aspects: Diesel gensets are likely to be least costly among the decentralised solutions. the number of households to be connected.3 – 2.. The comparison shows that among the decentralised solutions for rural village supply – hybrid systems.. 2000). A.. and the density of households in the village (Cabraal.. 2000b). 1996. Compared to the use of PV alone as SHS. 2 1 0 -1 -2 Hybrid Systems Diesel Genset SHS Biogas Grid Extension - - This leads to a comparative assessment as shown in Figure 3.3 Analysis of Impacts 36 Table 3. L. 1996) (ATB. meanwhile. M... J. and can be up to 20. 2002) (Cabraal. by this reducing investment costs strongly since specific investment for PV modules does not decrease with higher installed capacities. requires high financial input for remote rural areas. Cosgrove-Davies. Figure 3. the investment for hybrid systems might become similar.5 €/W 7 – 26 US$/Wp 2. M. Source (Kininger.. and: Baur. show that for other locations and circumstances.000 US$ per kilometre (ESMAP.hybrid power plants require the highest specific investment and are therefore disadvantageous. According to the World Bank.5 – 4 €/W Depending on the location.. hybrid systems require less specific investment due to the fact that the renewable part of the systems is not designed to meet the full electricity demand. and are therefore evaluated as comparatively very good here. L. The comparison of hybrid systems with biogas systems shows that biogas is likely to be less costly as well. Schaeffer.14. A. The quantity depends on the distance of the village to the grid.14 Comparative Assessment of Investment Costs . diesel gensets and biogas systems . Grid extension. investment costs for grid extension can therefore be evaluated as higher than for hybrid systems. CosgroveDavies.

50 1. and the chosen system configuration strongly influences the electricity generating costs. Especially in the case of household systems. 1. The results can be found in Figure 3.3.10 1. Therefore. Higher annual global radiation.4.60 1. - - Again. which is mainly due to the fact that factors as the construc- . both for PV/Diesel and Wind/Diesel systems.90 Number of Households Figure 3.70 1. They might vary strongly according to actual site conditions.3 Analysis of Impacts 37 3. The electricity generating costs of PV/Wind systems as well strongly depend on the battery size and the weather conditions. so that the data here shall just be seen as indicative.80 PV/Wind. but also in the possibility to design the battery bank smaller.40 1.1 €/l Diesel PV/Diesel: 1 €/l Diesel 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 120 140 160 175 225 275 Electricity Generating Costs [€/kWh] 1. Battery 2 Days PV/Wind. Battery 1 Day Wind/Diesel: 0. The decrease in electricity generating costs for PV/Diesel systems is lower than for the other systems due to the fact that investment for PV modules does not decrease with higher capacities. the costs can be significantly lower. The effect of decreasing diesel fuel prices is only moderate.e. the electricity generating costs are only 0.06 €/kWh lower for all village sizes at a fuel price of 0. the absolute numbers for electricity generating costs must be taken with caution. This is proven by comparing the data calculated here with those of other institutions. does not only result in higher electricity output of the PV modules. which is mainly due to the decline in investment costs for wind and diesel generators.2 Electricity Generating Costs per kWh Assessment of Hybrid Systems The cost analysis of hybrid systems was performed for different village sizes as well as different fuel prices in order to determine their influence on electricity generating costs.1 €/l compared to 1 €/l. i. In fact.20 1.3.00 0.15. which can be found in Annex D.1 €/l Diesel Wind/Diesel: 1 €/l Diesel PV/Diesel: 0.1..15 Electricity Generating Costs in Comparison The analysis of electricity generating costs lead to the following main observations: The electricity generating costs of all systems decrease with higher capacities. higher loads/larger villages give preference to Wind/Diesel systems if wind potential is sufficient.30 1.

The main results are presented in Table 3. this observation must not be taken for granted and can differ strongly from case to case. Scenario Comparison The comparison with other potential systems for rural electrification. 2000a) (BMZ. 3. For decentralised electrification. they are evaluated as 0 comparatively good here. the comparison with hybrid village systems Figure 3. 1999) (Wuppertal Institute. Once the conventional grid is extended to a rural village.000 kWh at an interest rate of 6% (Sauer. 2 The comparison with the conventional grid shows a disadvantage of hybrid systems as well. et al. 2002) The comparison shows that biogas systems are the least costly option among the decentralised systems from a point of view of electricity generating costs. since this is left to the buyer of the systems.3.4.20 – 0.2 Maintenance Requirements The indicator “Maintenance Requirements” discusses requirements on maintenance structures. For PV/Diesel hybrid systems. which can be found in Annex C. the resulting electricity generating costs are likely to be lower. Still. 1999).7 Electricity Generating Costs for Different Scenarios System Diesel Genset SHS Biogas Systems Grid Extension Specific Electricity Generating Costs 0. However. D.16 Comparative Assessment of Electricity here is anyway critical.03 Euro/kWh for village systems with annual consumption of less than 15.. the Fraunhofer-Institute states that electricity generating costs are likely not to become lower than 1. . and since diesel fuel is often heavily subsidised in develop1 ing countries.15 – 0. the situation can be completely different.3 Analysis of Impacts 38 tion of a local mini-grid or maintenance and repair must not be accounted. the scattered nature of these systems is generally problematic with regard to maintenance.60 US$/kWh 1 US$/kWh 0. Diesel gensets strongly depend on the diesel fuel price. Table 3.20 €/kWh Country dependent Source (ESMAP. If compared to Generating Costs hybrid household system. SHS proHybrid Diesel SHS Biogas Grid duce electricity at lower costs than -1 Systems Genset Extension hybrid village systems due to lower -2 operational costs. because grid extension offers the least costly option for electricity generation if a medium voltage line passes the respective village nearby..7.3. shows a clear disadvantage of hybrid village systems among the decentralised solutions.

Project developers state this issue to be of major importance and very crucial from a technical point of view30: whole maintenance centres need to be erected close to the villages. Experiences show that regular annual inspection and maintenance can reduce average fault rates of three failures per year to one failure every two years (Turcotte. and problems with charge controller and batteries make these systems comparatively problematic with regard to maintenance. adequate supply of spare parts is essential.17 reflects that maintenance is problematic for rural electrification in general. because biogas systems require regular attendance and maintenance.17 Comparative Assessment of Maintenance Requirements The criterion of economic independence is measured with the two indicators Degree of Import Dependence and Regional Self-Supply. batteries and charge controllers. etc. in hybrid systems.1. 3.. in Eschborn/Germany. S. This shows that maintenance structures are very complex in the case of hybrid systems. and whether the creation of economic surplus remains within the country on the other hand. Sheriff. With focus on matters of energy... If this is not ensured. Generally. the question to be discussed here is whether a technology is able to decrease dependency of developing countries on the one hand. on August. which is an important economic factor since commercial activities require reliable 30 Personal Comment given by Jörg Baur.4. Technicians need to be educated. two important aspects of electrification are investigated in detail: on the one hand supply security refers to likeliness of system breakdowns. More details can be found in section 5. None of the systems is therefore assessed as comparatively very good with regard to maintenance here. than system breakdowns of several days can be the result.3.3 Analysis of Impacts 39 Assessment of Hybrid Systems Maintenance requirements for hybrid systems must be evaluated as being comparatively high. To make customers aware of the need for maintenance of these small components is one of the key issues to be addressed in the implementation process of hybrid electrification projects. By investigating the degree of supply security. . maintenance centres need to be erected. Special attention needs to be paid to the maintenance of the key components. D.3 Economic Independence 2 1 0 -1 -2 Hybrid Systems Diesel Genset SHS Biogas Grid Extension Figure 3. the assessment as presented in Figure 3. GTZ. Just biogas systems are here seen to be even more problematic. 14th. 2001). F. 2003. and Supply Security. Scenario Comparison The comparison of maintenance requirements with other scenarios shows that hybrid systems due to their complexity require higher attention on maintenance issues than do other systems for rural electrification. Economic dependence on industrialised countries is one of the major problems of developing countries. Pneumaticos.

(IEA. Systems like biogas plants are neither dependent on new tech.4. On the one hand. show that developing countries very well had the ability to produce at least parts of hybrid systems. 1999b). and therefore are significantly preferential to hybrid systems. 2 two major groups can be distinguished: electrification scenarios de1 pendent on fossil resources are less 0 preferential from the point of view of Hybrid Diesel SHS Biogas Grid -1 Systems regional self-supply and import indeGenset Extension pendence.Figure 3. et al. Pure renewable energies. 3. however. It was argued that necessary production facilities and experts are likely not to be available in developing countries for many years. On the other hand experiences also show that quality of important system parts as batteries is likely to be low (Preiser. two different aspects need to be discussed. R.3 Analysis of Impacts 40 electricity output. 2003). wiring. Scenario Comparison In comparison to the other scenarios.18 Comparative Assessment Regional Selfnologies nor reliant on fossil re.. where renewable energies have been strongly promoted. shows that a market for renewable energies can emerge as well (GTZ. Improvements in this respect and the development of markets for renewable technologies can be expected only over longer periods of time and often need external support. On the other hand the importance of supply security refers to the question whether a technology has the ability to supply electricity the whole day. The example of Inner Mongolia.e. can be preferred to hybrid systems.3. The latter question has been discussed for many years already. 31 See for example: (Hemmers. charge controllers. -2 however. batteries. . On the other hand. 1990). i. 31 Experiences lately. the need for diesel fuel makes regions applying this technology dependent on fuel imports. etc. except diesel is produced in the country itself. the question whether the other components of a hybrid system can be produced in the respective countries is of major importance for sustainability in terms of maintenance as well as further dissemination of this technology..3.Supply and Import Independence sources.1 Degree of Import Dependence and Regional Self-Supply Assessment of Hybrid Systems With regard to import dependence and regional self-supply. 2000). K. The fear is that dependency on oil imports from industrialised countries might be replaced by a dependency on imports of modern technologies for the use of non-depleting resources as solar energy..

This observation is mainly 1 due to the fact that hybrid systems do 0 not rely on one generator alone.4 Future Potential The criterion of future potential is discussed with the indicator “Degree of know-how Improvement”. As an example. This and the fact that hybrid systems can be applied for 24-hours electrification shows that hybrid systems generally have a relatively high degree of supply security. a PV/Diesel hybrid system in Indonesia was not working due to lightning strike (Preiser.ture technologies.19 Comparative Assessment of Supply Se. Assessment of Hybrid Systems . 2000). this section tries to identify the potential of the respective technologies by evaluating their degree of modernity and their ability to improve the people’s knowledge on energy issues...3. Naturally. et al.3.4. if systems breakdowns due to failures of one of the electricity generation components occur. K. the likelicurity hood of complete system breakdowns is comparatively low.2 Supply Security Assessment of Hybrid Systems Renewable energy generators as PV arrays and wind generators have a lifetime of up to 20 years and are nowadays very reliable. which cannot be influenced by project developers. Anyhow. 2 3. With the help of demonstration projects and well-functioning rural electrification projects.. The assessment here therefore reflects supply security as a main strength of hybrid systems. The relevance of future potential and know-how improvement is to be seen within the context of technology transfer. a hybrid system is still able to supply a limited amount of energy with the other components. leading to breakdowns and therefore decreasing supply security severely (Preiser. The experiences with hybrid systems in Inner Mongolia and Indonesia therefore did not show major breakdowns due to system component failures. More-1 Systems Genset Extension over.. careful projection of demand development is essential in order to enable supply security. The experience of Indonesia shows as well that if projections are not carried out closely. Scenario Comparison Compared with other methods.3. By this. Firstly. Moreover. but Hybrid Diesel SHS Biogas Grid are backed up by another one. tribute is given to the fact that fossil resources are limited and that for future development a decrease of dependence on such resources is desirable. hybrid systems offer a high degree of supply security. 2000). For this reason.4. hybrid systems apply renewable -2 energy technologies as photovoltaic and wind. et al. modern and sustainable approaches for rural electrification can be promoted. capacity building and sustainable energy development. system breakdowns can occur by incidents. the system is likely not to cover demand increase at a certain stage anymore.3 Analysis of Impacts 41 3. both nowadays being maFigure 3. K.

1 Results 3. tential Thus. Especially compared to conventional electrification solutions.20 Comparative Assessment of Future Poments.1 Ecological Dimension The analysis of the ecological dimension shows good potential for hybrid systems. to which hybrid systems are likely to be a sustainable option for rural electrification.5.5. it is tried to come to a conclusion on the degree. A high degree of potential for know-how improvement and capacity building can therefore be attributed to such technologies.3 Analysis of Impacts 42 Hybrid systems apply modern and new technologies for rural electrification. Scenario Comparison For SHS and Biogas.1. which are based on approaches being followed in the industrialised countries as well and involve lower dependence on fossil resources. 3. since these are modern and new technologies not demanding fossil resources either. The three dimensions ecological. With this. as was the objective in the beginning. the relatively low energy consumption for the production of hybrid systems as well contributes to a good overall result on environmental sustainability compared to diesel gensets and grid extension.Figure 3. 2 1 0 Hybrid Diesel SHS Biogas Grid -1 Systems Genset Extension Diesel gensets and extension of the -2 conventional grids on the other hand are options. 3. which was attributed to the individual indicators in Table 3. which certainly offer less potential for know-how improve.2 on page 19. . the future potential can be seen as equally high.5 Results and Discussion The result of the assessment of the indicators is now aggregated according to the weight. hybrid systems indeed have the potential to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. Moreover. the comparison of the future potential clearly results in a preference for the solutions based on renewable energy resources. socio-economic and economic sustainability are still discussed individually.

since leakages in diesel tanks and the associated ground pollution are a major problem especially in dieselbased mini-grids. and can become problematic for diesel-based hybrid systems as well. the choice between SHS and hybrid systems will not need to be made.21 Results Ecology Assessment benign than the conventional grid strongly depends on the energy mix of the respective countries. aspects of diesel storage need to be taken into account. other environmentally important aspects would be of importance as well and would need to be examined as well. because they serve different purposes (basic household electrification in the case of SHS.32 The assessment of environmental sustainability was here restricted to matters of air and noise pollution. if the choice is to be made between hybrid systems and other renewable energies as SHS and biogas. the commonly high dependence of developing countries on fossil fuels allows assessing the environmental performance of hybrid systems as better. For the real application of hybrid systems. especially of those applying diesel gensets for backup. The comparison of hybrid systems with the extension of the conventional grid does not provide a -2 PV/ Diesel Wind/ PV/ Wind Diesel SHS Biogas Grid consistent picture at first Diesel Extension glance. village electrification also for productive purposes in the case of hybrid systems). These aspects include mainly battery recycling. Due to the fact that purely renewable systems do not consume fossil resources during operation. since hybrid systems are especially meant to replace them in rural electrification. Nevertheless. The comparison here is therefore fictitious. reveals a worse performance of hybrid systems. . The question whether hybrid systems are more environmentally Figure 3. Moreover. PV/Wind systems are the only systems being able to compete under ecological aspects and to provide an equal environmentally sound solution. -1 The comparison of hybrid systems with purely renewable energy technologies as SHS and biogas. however. the aggregated impacts on environment investigated here are worse for diesel-based hybrid systems.3 Analysis of Impacts 43 2 1 0 This observation is not very surprising with regard to diesel gensets. Therefore. 32 Note: In practical terms. which needs to be assured in order to make the systems environmentally benign.

These problems are. hybrid systems have problems in 2 competing with other decentralised systems for rural electrification. severe and Figure 3. Regarding other matters of social sustainability as supply equity and capacity building/empowerment. then this applies to hybrid systems as well. If one. assesses SHS as problematic from this point of view. indeed. The slight comparative disadvantage of hybrid systems to grid-based electrification mainly results from the high preference rural population is likely to give to grid extension and from the high potential for economic development attributed to grid-based electrification here. they do. result in the demand for high involvement of donor organisations. however.3 Analysis of Impacts 44 3. however. 3. 0 which is mainly due to the high potential of hybrid systems for -1 economic development and for the creation of employment op-2 portunities. which have been facing many problems with regard to financial issues as investment and maintenance.5.2 Socio-Economic Dimension The assessment of the socio2 economic effects of hybrid systems reveals a good preference 1 for hybrid systems compared to other decentralised solutions. The analysis here reveals that hybrid systems can be ranked similarly to SHS. These indicators have Hybrid Diesel SHS Biogas Grid Systems Gensets Extension been weighted comparatively high in the assessment scheme since the furtherance of economic development is one of the main Figure 3. the decentralised option hybrid system is certainly favourable. therefore.5. Hybrid systems by providing high quality and reliable electrification and with the quality of electric current being comparable to the conventional grid are likely to be the best among the here investigated methods for decentralised electrification. 1 Hybrid systems have advantages with regard to supply security 0 compared to other decentralised options.1.1.3 Economic Dimension From an economic perspective.22 Results Socio-Economic Assessment hopes connected to rural electrification.23 Results Economic Assessment are in the relative assessment here not reflected accurately in absolute terms. -1 high electricity generating costs and the problem of high require-2 ments on maintenance are main Hybrid Diesel SHS Biogas Grid problems associated with the apSystems Genset Extension plication of hybrid systems. But high investment costs. .

2 Discussion The analysis of impacts of hybrid systems reveals that the initially raised question. meaning the demand for electrification for productive purposes. for the electrification of individuals. It was shown that hybrid systems indeed can be a method for sustainable rural electrification with regard to ecological and socio-economic issues. This. it is thought here that hybrid systems on village level should just be applied in areas where this potential. This assessment is. Firstly. and the resulting intermittent supply of energy was accepted (GTZ. the analysis shows that especially the question of financial competitiveness with other decentralised options for rural electrification is a major problem.3 Analysis of Impacts 45 The comparison also revealed that hybrid systems are disadvantageous from an economic perspective to grid extension. is crucial. In Inner Mongolia it was experienced that the diesel genset was in some cases not operated in order to decrease expenditure on diesel fuel. Nevertheless. cannot fully exploit the system. in other terms. which do not have the demand for reliable and continuous electricity supply and. It is rather inappropriate to apply hybrid systems in rural areas. to which degree hybrid systems are likely to provide a sustainable option for rural electrification. cannot simply be answered with yes or no. applies to hybrid systems. the question is whether the application of hybrid systems. For the real application of hybrid systems. Hybrid systems certainly have the potential of furtherance of economic development. then. From an economic perspective. The discussion of advantages and disadvantages here has revealed that probably the most important advantage compared to other systems is that hybrid systems offer a good potential for economic development. 3. In a way. the question whether or not to apply hybrid systems depends on the respective local circumstances. does make sense at all. decentralised systems for electrification are advantageous compared to grid extension with regard to the regional creation of value and to independence and supply security. two different possibilities are distinguished. and the extension of the conventional grid to these areas will in practical cases not be an option for their electrification due to the high investment involved. the assessment of these impacts was done in relatively general terms and is therefore strongly related to the underlying assumptions and their subjective evaluation. thus. and under which circumstances should they be implemented? For the answer to these questions. From a personal point of view. but at least a basis of economic de- . being relatively expensive and sophisticated at the same time. as well. and the question whether positive impacts of hybrid systems on ecological and socio-economic issues trade-off this problem. this main advantage also provides the ground on which to decide whether or not to apply hybrid systems. however. is at all given. But if this is the case. 2003). 1. the question of ecological and socio-economic impacts will always need to be investigated individually. is the answer on the initially raised question whether hybrid systems are a sustainable solution for rural electrification? What. is the niche for hybrid systems. What. to be taken with caution. both on a household scale as well as in the here investigated village mini-grids. However. Hybrid systems are applicable for remote rural areas.5.

. telecommunication devices. smaller and less sophisticated solutions as biogas. the sustainability of hybrid systems and other options will need to be investigated prior to the implementation process every time again individually. For a respective project with the objective of sustainable rural electrification. this assessment is not to be taken for granted for any situation. which are already developing by other means and where other conditions are favourable to allow a positive prognosis of further development. small-scale hybrid systems are well applicable to the electrification of single consumers as rural health clinics. etc.3 Analysis of Impacts 46 velopment already taking place should be given in order to apply and fully exploit hybrid systems. desalination systems. For supporting the first step. taking account of the specific conditions and circumstances. are seen as less suitable for poverty alleviation for the poorest as are other systems. If one considers economic development as a stepwise process. However. therefore. hotels. then the application of hybrid systems might be ideally seen as the second step of development. the advantage of high quality electrification exactly adapted to the consumer demand applies and makes hybrid systems very favourable and certainly trades off the relatively high investment costs. It is based on a subjective and generalised assessment of the impacts of hybrid systems and therefore not universally applicable. Secondly. SHS or stand-alone wind turbines seem to offer a better suited method. For this purpose.3 might provide a framework for such an assessment. The extension of such small-scale renewable solutions to hybrid systems by applying additional diesel or other generators might then be a possibility to support the next step of development by providing 24-hours electrification. The indicator set developed here and presented in section 3. Hybrid systems are here assessed to be more suitable for supporting development of areas. Hybrid systems. 2.

people were satisfied with the hybrid systems.2 This system was erected in 1997 and is designed to provide electricity to three settlements with altogether 350 families.2. are connected in parallel to supply electricity to a village of approximately 50 inhabitants.1. PV/Diesel Hybrid System close to Subang - 4. Systems of choice are not only SHS.. which aims to electrify one million households with PV within 10 years. but also with regard to PV hybrid systems.1 PV/Wind/Diesel Hybrid System at Nusa Penida Island Two plants. Since breakdown of the system.1. They are based on literature review. a wind power plant and a diesel genset. both consisting of a PV generator. two existing plants were visited by the project planners. a market for SHS has developed over recent years. 4. K. et al.1. or work in nearby urban areas. The village has an elementary school and some shopping facilities for food. which according to their opinion provided ideal electricity supply for their remote village.2 Project Description Within the project described in (Preiser. but no reaction resulted from that. first pilot projects installed 85 SHS and 15 PV street lighting already in 1989 in Sukatani. 2000). and since then there is no 24-hours electricity supply. The following information were obtained at the on-site visit: Lightning stroke has damaged the plant.4 Project Examples 47 4 Project Examples This section presents the experiences made in two projects on rural electrification with hybrid systems in Indonesia and Inner Mongolia. . the Indonesian government has created the so-called 50 MW PV-programme in 1997. 4. drivers.1 Hybrid Systems in Indonesia 4. Despite the problems. Indonesia has long standing experiences with PV. For this purpose. so that this could easily be repaired by a technician.2. By this. but also a number of PV-based hybrid systems. Therefore.1. 4.500 islands with approximately 23 million households not being connected to the conventional grid.. the operational experiences with PV systems were reviewed. In order to overcome this situation. the village used just the diesel genset for electrification. which is switched on during evening hours and works smoothly.1 Baseline Indonesia consists of around 17. with special focus on SHS. The inhabitants of the village reported the breakdown of the system two months before the on-site visit. Inhabitants are usually farmers. hygiene and fuel. The project team felt that just protection elements were damaged. a test and certification laboratory for PV is to be erected in Jakarta. the results on hybrid systems are summarised here.

project organisation was felt to be not transparent and people would have wished to be more involved in the project during implementation.e. 33 Quoted Exchange Rate: 1 US $ = 2. exceeding the assumed level by 88 kWh/d. they proved good understanding about the characteristics of the system and felt that the allocation of electricity was fair. because those devices. Since the fuses did not function.000 Indonesian Rupees. respectively. a 40 kW Diesel Genset. being secured by fuses. However. tried to cope with increased level of demand by extending the operational hours of the diesel genset and by temporarily disconnecting parts of the village from the system. In a new arrangement. When asked. which was created in the village before and which was in charge of the hybrid system. the consumption rose to 238 kWh/d. The organisation committee. People had experienced the limitations of the system and did adapt to the system’s needs by i. The operation of the system. ironing during daytime. for which they had to pay a connection fee of 20. in turn.000 or 30. But when other consumers began to follow this behaviour. During night-time. however. shows that maybe not all characteristics of electricity supply and energy saving had been understood. while during daytime. Soon after connection. . People were obviously dissatisfied with the system’s performance. people began to apply more electrical devices than they were supposed to. this was not a problem. The first led to increased electricity generating costs. could not be used anymore.4 Project Examples 48 The hybrid system consists of a 7 kWp PV Generator. Already in the year 2000. while the latter led to massive frustration among consumers. which need to be connected to the grid permanently. the system could soon not meet the demand anymore.200 Ah and a 20 kW bi-directional Inverter. The saved money of six million Rupees disappeared during these changes. a Battery Bank of 1. The system was designed for a electricity consumption of 150 kWh/d. The whole situation led to strikes and civil commotion. proved that this assumption was wrong. where light is simply not switched off. only one of the three settlements can use electricity. because the provided amount of energy was not sufficient and the temporary disconnection was not acceptable. the behaviour in using lights was similar to that in urban areas. The system applies two different load limitations.500 Indonesian Rupees. and only the local technician remained in position. Some adapters and cables of the PV-modules were also abraded and needed to be replaced. The organisation committee changed several times. just those. This. all settlements obtain electricity service. village inhabitants are not supplied with electricity for 24 hours anymore. all system components except the battery bank were showing good overall test result. the installed capacity was likely to be sufficient to satisfy consumers’ needs. On the other hand. Consumers could be connected to either 100W or 200W. which where experienced by system failures. 33 It was assumed that due to the low income of inhabitants. which is due to the system’s constant operation with high loads. Test of system components proved that the system was still in good shape. The battery bank was after the three years of operation down to a capacity of 60% and therefore close to replacement.

2 Project Description This project was implemented to locally produce and use wind and solar energy systems to solve problems with the availability of energy in rural areas.2.1 gives an overview. and was reviewed in 2000 (GTZ. and therefore it was in many villages avoided to run the diesel genset to save the additional costs for fuel.2. and the purchasing power of the respective county. different hybrid systems were installed for village electrification. 4.1 Hybrid Systems in Inner Mongolia Applied Systems PV/Diesel Systems Wind/Diesel Systems Wind/Diesel Systems Different Hybrid Systems Place Inner Mongolia Inner Mongolia China Sea Remote Repeater Stations Battery Bank 300 W Wind-Generator PV/Wind Systems Household Systems 100 W PV-Generator Battery Bank Hybrid Village Systems Application System Configuration Wind.or PV-Generator up to 10 kW Diesel Genset. experiences showed that this assumption was wrong. 2003).1 Baseline China and Inner Mongolia have been supporting the adaptation of renewable energies for rural electrification very strongly over recent years. the actual and projected demand for electricity. However. Through the executing company Hua De New Technology Company (HDNTC).2. wind farms or other prove. Prolonged power cuts due to low availability of renewable resources were accepted. a distance of more than 50 km from the conventional grid. as many project examples on SHS. Table 4. Table 4. It was observed that guiding principle for the operators was to minimise costs. repeater stations and as household systems. proximity to the parent company of HDNTC. The project presented here was taking place from 1990 till the end of 1999.2. Huhhot.2 Hybrid Systems in Inner Mongolia 4.4 Project Examples 49 4. in some villages the availability . Hybrid Village Systems 4. Main focus was the transfer of technical knowledge. 8-24 kW Criteria for the selection of projects sites were the quality of wind and solar resources. It was assumed that the village governments/the operator were willing and able to pay for the additional diesel. for the demonstration projects.1 System Design The hybrid systems for village electrification were designed and meant for 24-hours supply.

In the beginning. no differentiation is made according to the amount of power consumed or to the point of time of consumption. the tariffs were found not to cover the full costs of the systems. in most cases the villages decided to choose the actual operator of their previously used diesel genset to operate the hybrid system. found to be sufficiently transparent and known by everybody concerned. financial and operational management were separated in many villages for better control of revenues. but only the costs of operation. HDNTC can be contacted via telephone and gives advises in cases of technical problems. This approach is pragmatic and very user-oriented. The electricity fee was experienced to be paid regularly by the consumers. radios and TV. The main problem was that a transparent and comparable bookkeeping was not introduced.4 Project Examples 50 of electricity supply was reduced to 4 hours/day. However. Costs and Tariffs The village centres applied one fixed tariff. leaving the total management performance much to individual perceptions and attitudes of the operator. Here. and 34 Quoted Exchange Rate (5/2000): 4 Renminbi = 1 DM = 0. Electricity is mainly used for lighting.51 €. The chosen operators were then trained by HDNTC with a Mobile Training Bus and an additional on-the-job-training during and after installation. the village governments and the households contributed with connection fees in the range of 350-1.4 Renminbi/kWh34 and was set by the village government after a test phase of one or two months. To account this. which is in the range of 1. The tariff system was. In cases of major breakdowns and need for spare parts from Germany. Development of Electricity Demand The development of electricity consumption showed the expected effects. according to the affordability by the users and the objective of operational cost recovery. Later. More appropriate after-sales service is difficult. The operator or the village government are responsible for maintenance of the systems and all expenditures on it. which was strongly accounted to the high acceptance of the system. Operation and Maintenance of the Systems There was no agreed management system on the plants with the villages. with all consequential costs. it was mostly the operator being responsible for the collection of the electricity fees. This shows clearly that the willingness to pay for the convenience of 24-hours electrification was not given.8 – 2. since many villages are situated at far distances from the company. the households were connected to an electricity meter to pay the consumption-based tariff. downtimes of one or two months may occur. Due to high investment costs for the systems. progressive tariffs depending on the consumption or seasonal adjustment of tariffs to the operation costs would be helpful instead in order to reduce peak load demands. but problematic due to the fixed tariff. it seems that it was not understood that this intermittent mode of operation increased the risk of reduced technical lifetime of the battery bank. too. however. . however. Households use typical appliances as irons. However. With the installation of the hybrid systems. Subsidies between 60 to 80% of the initial investment were necessary.000 Renminbi per household.

2. For the sale of the systems. 4. the users were trained with the Mobile Training Bus of HDNTC. cost data and service time experienced indicate that PV/Wind systems are the most cost-effective option for decentralised household electricity supply from a point of view of electricity generating costs. this capacity problem was partly also met by extension of the system. found to be very conscious on matters of energy saving by using energy saving bulbs in the beginning. they were rarely replaced due to the high purchase costs. by optimisation of supply or through control of demand by adapting regulations on consumption behaviour.3 Electricity Generating Costs from Different Sources. which makes the sale a risk for HDNTC being the creditor.2. Sometimes. however. which was technically easily feasible. some families stayed without electricity after system breakdowns between two and five months. The installed 10 kW Wind/Diesel system reached its capacity limit within two years. experiences in Inner Mongolia were good in this regard. on the other hand. which obviously stroke poor families more. Households were. Experiences here where. Hospitals use X-ray equipment or sonographs. This training needed to be very comprehensive. dealers were engaged as mediators for HDNTC.4 Project Examples 51 working equipment as drilling machines. Most household systems were paid by instalments. However. Because of this. In other regions. In smaller villages as Yingen (200 inhabitants). Operation and Maintenance As in the case of village systems. Families caused almost a quarter of system breakdowns due to lack of knowledge of the system and neglecting attitudes towards maintenance. Moreover. because families in Inner Mongolia are usually herdsmen and come rarely to urban areas. Development of Electricity Demand Due to the relatively high installed capacity of the hybrid systems. . However. The experiences showed that most people were willing to adapt to these regulation. the same capacity as above still met the electricity demand at the time of project review. disappointing. local banks installed electrical warning systems. because a contract on maintenance was not concluded between HDNTC and the system owners. Problems with the installed capacity were experienced in villages with a rather high number of inhabitants as Wuliji (600 inhabitants). An overview on cost details can be found in Annex D. and boarding schools apply washing machines. Nevertheless. This problem was met in Wuliji by extension of the system. PV/Wind hybrid household systems in Inner Mongolia require high initial investment and can therefore only be afforded by higher income households. But once these bulbs were broken. constant problem occurring was the balance of energy demand in the households: in some cases people wanted to use more appliances than the systems were designed for. electric water pumps are used for irrigation purposes. the demand was tried to be controlled by an increase of tariffs.2 Hybrid Household Systems System Purchase and Costs Compared to other household systems. many electrical appliances can be used by the customers.

. and service provision to other families is not possible due to far distances between scattered households in Inner Mongolia. the project review states scepticism due to high initial investment costs and considered subsidies to remain essential for their dissemination. The users apparently tolerated downtimes for repairs without being negatively influenced on their opinion on the systems. The acceptance of the system was. mainly due to the fact that the wind generator in the PV/Wind system has shown to be a bit temperamental. further dissemination without subsidisation and just by market mechanisms alone are stated to be feasible in the project review. because a market for renewable energy devices already exists. The owners of household systems manage them by themselves and expand them according to their need and purchasing power. SHS have a higher degree of acceptance. however. however.3 Aspects of System Dissemination The dissemination of hybrid systems by market mechanisms alone is the ultimate goal for the sustainability of the project presented here.2. For PV/Wind household systems. Of course.4 Project Examples 52 Miscellaneous Aspects As is usually the case with SHS. 4. However. the circumstances with regard to i. The experiences show that the village supply systems are a persuasive demonstration for a decentralised RE supply system not only for village inhabitants. Compared to SHS. especially compared to diesel gensets and their high costs for operation. direct economic benefits could also not be attributed to the application of PV/Wind household systems. The installed capacity is simply to low for income generating activities. for the village systems.e. the users were less satisfied. but also for scattered households who feel motivated to buy a household system. found to be high. financing schemes need to be supportive. China and Inner Mongolia provide relatively good conditions in this respect. however.

Direct Equipment Sales: The approach of direct equipment sales commonly refers to sale of complete systems rather than components.1 Organisation Decision on the distribution model The World Bank distinguishes two major distribution or sales models to be applied in developing countries (ESMAP. equipment dealers usually lack financial background to offer credit to local consumers. nor can poor communities commonly afford hybrid systems for electrification of villages.5 Key success factors 53 5 Key success factors Sustainability describes a dynamic process. which can be sup- . For hybrid systems the approach of direct equipment sales is adequate if an appropriate credit or leasing system is set up. To achieve this.e. The approach of direct equipment sales therefore demands to make funds available to dealers in order to give them the possibility to provide credit to rural population or to create a leasing model. and therefore it is not enough to ensure whether hybrid systems are likely to be a sustainable option for rural electrification. Another option for equipment sales is leasing. These models are presented in the following. the key success factors in approaching a sustainable electrification project with hybrid systems shall be discussed in this section. on the other hand there is the sale of electricity service approach. Investment costs are simply too high for hybrid systems. Ideally. for the adaptation of leasing. financing. and direct equipment sale has proven to be difficult already in the case of SHS. and this is likely to remain so in the future due to the fact that credit is rarely available in rural areas and is just provided to consumers with secure occupations. Neither will individual poor households be able to purchase hybrid home system on cash basis. For this. Moreover. demand assessment and management. thus. Dominican Republic). Leasing is an option of lower risk for the dealers since it is considerably less complicated to retrieve the equipment in case the consumers neglect their duty to pay the monthly leasing rates. but which has not yet gained major importance due to the same reason of insufficient working capital on the side of the dealers as in case of credit based purchase (ESMAP. 2001): on the one hand there is the equipment-sale approach. important aspects of organisation. and capacity building will be discussed on the basis of a literature review. although it involves less investment than hybrid systems for an individual consumer. 5. Sustainability needs also to be ensured by implementing the system in a way that guarantees a sustainable self-contained operation after project implementation. as is in the case of SHS. 2001). funding of the dealers shall be provided by local banks. which has been successfully implemented in some countries (i. Predominating option is cash sales. ownership. the responsibility for maintenance and repair is transferred to the purchaser. With the approach of selling equipment directly to individuals. operation and maintenance. The systems can be purchased either on cash or credit basis. the provision of working capital is to be ensured.

In fact. focus rather on supporting private providers of electricity supply and to support them with subsidies in order to ease access to electricity for poor population. 2003). are very important for the mini-grid in several respects: Firstly. The decision will therefore always be an individual one. As an option or in addition. however. questions of ownership and responsibility. Basic problem of all projects applying renewable energies is the fact that knowledge and therefore necessary infrastructure is rarely existent in rural areas.5 Key success factors 54 ported by international organisations as the World Bank. the electricity service company may receive a subsidy per user. Problematic for the adaptation of this approach is the fact that in remote areas electricity service companies are rarely existent. or the maximum number of concessions possible with a given grant (Tomkins. however.. credits can also be made available to consumers by such banks. depending on the actual local situation. 2001). The Global Environmental Facility (GEF) recommends to task managers of single electrification projects to experiment with both approaches individually in order to then decide for the most appropriate one (GEF. R. In an ideal model. although being probably even more financially sustainable. however. It is assumed that this approach is likely to open up and strengthen markets for decentralised electrification and therefore result in an increase of equipment sales (ESMAP. The alternative is then to build capacity among small local companies through business advisory services and business development. is the fact that in many countries electricity service provision is restricted to only national utility. 2000). The question for hybrid systems is which of these models to favour. Common experiences in developing countries especially with SHS show that if . i. the operational structure for the mini-grids to be established. therefore requiring new political regulations (ESMAP. General problem in the approach to provide electricity services through private companies or businessman. is not only comparatively time-consuming. Criterion for decision is either - the least grant necessary for a predetermined number of connections. The winning company then constructs the energy provision system including distribution lines. responsibility for the power plant is important with regard to theft and vandalism.e. Identification of Responsibility For the electrification of a rural village. 2001). Sale of Electricity Service: This approach is called “Dispersed Area Concession Model” by the World Bank and gives an electricity service company exclusive right to provide electricity service to a certain area by concession. R. both local and foreign companies are bidding for the right to provide the electricity service exclusively. the isolation of these rural areas makes them highly unattractive for substantial private participation at any level of subsidy (Tomkins.). Recent approaches. In order to make electricity affordable to even the poorest among the rural population. but also demands high involvement by donor organisations. This approach. Users are provided electricity after paying a certain connection fee and through paying a monthly cost-based tariff.

If private entrepreneurs are chosen for the . is rather difficult in the case of hybrid systems. cannot be given here. take care of operation and maintenance. be avoided to press from outside village inhabitants to form such organisations. Pneumaticos. - The World Bank distinguishes two different scenarios (ESMAP. 2001). especially the crucial parts of a hybrid system.. In general. then theft and vandalism can become severe problems and compromise the whole success of the electrification project. especially with regard to leadership in order to avoid failures and severe problems. Thirdly. Failure rates of these components can be reduced from three every year to one every two years if just inspection and maintenance are carried out carefully (Turcotte. and he will by his own interest prevent the plant from theft and vandalism. even slight problems with the system can become major issues and lead to complete breakdown of electricity supply. battery bank and charge controller. one has to take into account that this organisational solution brings with it higher risks for the local community. Moreover. prove the importance of sustainable maintenance structures. D. clear responsibility for the financial management of a plant is necessary in order to ensure the payment of bills from the customers. The appropriate solutions will vary strongly between countries and even among different villages in the same region. Important issues to be addressed with regard to sustainable maintenance structures include the following: Identification and Training of Technicians for System Operation and Maintenance: The identification of technicians within the rural community is a crucial and important task in setting up a maintenance structure. 2000a): Either the hybrid power plant and the corresponding mini-grid are installed by a private entrepreneur. Sheriff. Applying renewable energies for rural electrification is a new and innovative approach. Implementing sustainable maintenance structures Experiences not only with hybrid systems. Moreover. which one to prefer in the case of hybrid systems.. and a general recommendation. It should. however. a clear knowledge on responsibility is essential for operation and maintenance of the system. the organisational structure must be set up very carefully. meaning a co-operative or a user group. require regular maintenance. This approach is very common in developing countries and has a strong advantage by committing the village’s population to the project. Then all responsibility is left to him.. Not even costly and well-designed systems with high quality components can reliably provide electricity without regular and proper maintenance. and knowledge about maintenance is usually very limited. The other possibility is some form of village ownership. Clear assignment of responsibility helps a lot to avoid problems in this regard. S. Without appropriate maintenance structures. but also with other renewable energy technologies as SHS. Therefore. and ensure the payment of bills. The decision on the appropriate organisational model is difficult. since training requirements are high and complex and need high involvement especially with regard to maintenance. because it is strongly matter of their trust among each other and of their ability to work together whether such an approach will be successful. the second approach of creating co-operatives or user groups. F. Secondly. depending on the specific local conditions.5 Key success factors 55 the question of responsibility is not solved.

the question of maintenance centres is difficult. Establishment of Regional Maintenance Centres: System operators should optimally have contact persons with higher technical expertise (ESMAP. When deciding for a system operator. 2000b).5 Key success factors 56 provision of electricity. then others can take over seamlessly. Otherwise.e. a pool of potential later technical experts can be created. By this. 2000a). L. just having graduated and looking for work. A rule of thumb from the application of SHS in the Dominican Republic is that systems should not be further away than 50 km from a service centre (Cabraal. M. can only be achieved if these centres serve a substantial number of villages. as for example in a project at Galapagos Islands. These people then can be asked in case technical problems occur. Moreover. A. these centres should be financially self-sufficient and not need financial assistance. Maintenance centres can serve this function of guidance and technical knowledge backup. which have the necessary potential for economic development and are in need of such a system. 2000a). and the implementing organisation needs to monitor success after project implementation. the World Bank recommends not to decide for one or two system operators in the very beginning of the project implementation process.. the approach of assigning the responsibility for the system to elder persons has proved to be recommendable. and people with highest capability as well as respect among other village inhabitants can be chosen in the end. the main objective is not to have high staff turnover on this position. People need to be involved in the whole implementation process for a deeper understanding of the power plant. 2000a). which cannot be solved by the operator individually.. since maintenance centres in nearby urban areas are not available and therefore need to be erected. Also the engagement of young people as system operators. but to involve as many interested people as possible (ESMAP. . which are ideally situated in the vicinity of the centre. For this. 1996). in case the chosen operator is at times not available in the future due to i. Young people tend to be more open to changes and are more likely to move away to urban areas after a while (ESMAP. then the choice of the technicians is of course to be left to them. Ideally. Training of system operators is a long-term process and cannot be performed with in a couple of days. This. if outside organisations take over responsibility for guiding the implementation process. illness. Hybrid systems are commonly implemented for electrification of remote areas. Not only has the potentially higher degree of respect and acceptance of elder people within rural communities played a role here. however. For the application of hybrid systems it therefore seems to be essential to choose areas with a considerable number of potential communities. Cosgrove-Davies. has shown to be problematic. Schaeffer. For hybrid systems. having been educated at school recently. too (ESMAP. This remoteness can become a problem for hybrid systems..

5 Key success factors 57 5. Investigating the consumer’s willingness-to-pay is commonly done on the basis of questionnaires. Otherwise it was experienced that consumers op- 35 Examples can be found at the World Bank (ESMAP. which involve rather high investment and electricity generating costs. Correct pricing of electricity – setting up a sustainable tariff structure Correct pricing of electricity is probably the most important success factor to be described here. which these systems certainly offer. failed. as is described in section 5. pure investigation of consumer’s willingness-to-pay has been found to be shortsighted. however. disposable batteries for radios and rechargeable car-batteries and the costs for their recharging. Investigating both willingness.4). it needs to be found out whether the demand for 24-hours electrification as can be provided by hybrid systems is given and whether the economic potential. It is to be found out how much the potential consumers are willing to invest to get access to and to pay for the provision of electricity services in order to determine the investment and operation costs. In areas where steady income is not guaranteed. which are likely to be covered by consumers themselves. the effects of this fact on affordability are to be taken into account. maintenance and overhauling costs for equipment replacement Finding the most appropriate way for covering these costs is a difficult matter. Common approaches usually investigate the current expenditure of rural households on kerosene. But whether people can actually afford electrification is a different question of equal importance and cannot be answered by simple investigation of willingness-topay.2 Financing Willingness. It is obvious that rural population is likely to be interested in electrification and.and ability-to-pay is of major importance especially in the case of hybrid systems. warrants the higher financial burden for the consumer. which option for rural electrification is to be chosen. 2000a: Annex 5. thus. Prior to the decision. candles. but also the operational costs often used to be covered to a large extent by subsidies. As a rule of thumb. Based on the objective to provide electricity to even the poorest among the poor. if applied costs for operation. the World Bank estimates that about 15 percent of the disposable income is usually spent on all such energy services (ESMAP. Costs for hybrid systems can be broken down to the following aspects (ESMAP. Operational costs should be covered by consumers themselves from the beginning. .5.35 However. This approach. 2001). Affordability of electrical appliances and electricity services is difficult to determine and closely linked to energy demand assessment. willing to pay for it. not only the implementation or connection costs. 2000a): capital costs for the implementation of the mini-grid project fuel costs for the diesel genset.and Ability-to-pay for the electricity service of rural population Investigating the consumer’s willingness-to-pay is one of the key issues to be determined prior to any electrification project.

a more constant flow of operational income can be expected. discourage investment.. The latter subsidy on connection costs is proposed just to be partial by the World Bank (Tomkins. . An overview about potential solutions as described by the World Bank in (ESMAP. For electrification projects applying renewable energies. which makes it an additional test of user’s demand and preferences concerning electrification.. which often led to financial difficulties and even to failures of electrification projects. 2003. Finally. with diesel gensets the purchase of diesel fuel can be reduced or stopped. R. need to be paid off. the option of energy-based tariffs is applied in cases where there is a reasonable number of potential consumers and where ability and willingness to pay allow the application of this rather sophisticated tariff system.L. 7th. and each of them can be applied successfully depending on the specific circumstances. In order to avoid problems associated with meter reading. However. In summary. Setting up a sustainable tariff structure cannot be done by following a single and proven formula for success. energy meters require considerable additional investment and are therefore not suitable in small-sized mini-grids with small numbers of consumers. KfW staff member. this method is of special interest because it attenuates a disadvantage of these technologies compared to diesel gensets-based electrification: if consumers temporarily do not have money to afford electricity. 36 Personal Comment given by Mr. a new approach applies prepayment meters and is usually called “Fee-for-service”.. 2000a) and KfW36 both strongly recommend: those who do not pay their monthly bills should be consequently disconnected from electricity supply. W. Dubois. on July. which can be bought by the consumers and with which the consumer purchases the possibility to consume a certain amount of electricity. and hamper business development as was experienced in China (Wallace. the use of power during offpeak times is encouraged additionally. This tariff allows appropriate charging according to the real individual consumption by applying an energy meter. thus awarding energy-saving consumer behaviour through lower energy bills. 1998). With fee-for-service. However. fee-for-service is as well very costly with regard to equipment and support service. conventional energy meters do not limit consumption. Energy-based tariffs: The approach of applying energy-based tariffs is probably the most equitable one. is one rule. and a contribution to connection costs for households can be justified as well. Common for all tariff structures. billing and money collecting. as World Bank (ESMAP. however. 2003). This approach uses magnetic cards or tokens. the emphasis on poverty alleviation by subsidising can restrict sustainable market expansion. Renewable energy devices. resulting in unexpected high bills. which needs to be applied to any decentralised rural electrification project. Different approaches exist. less welleducated consumers might have difficulties in understanding the meter and how to read it. et al. whether money is available at that time or not. and therefore it might come out that wealthier households consume that much that minigrids with limited capacity are overloaded. in order not to undermine the other users’ paying morality. If time-of-day meters are applied. however.5 Key success factors 58 posed to later tariff increases to fully cover operational costs themselves. It is therefore widely agreed nowadays that grants and subsidies should only be given on implementation costs. 2000a) is presented in the following. Moreover. Moreover.

Source: Own illustration. leaves more potential to fraud by bypassing the limiter.5 Key success factors 59 Power-based tariffs: This tariff-scheme is not based on metering of actual electricity consumption. while power-based tariffs can be applied to other users. an oral or written agreement with the consumer limits his consumption to a predetermined level according to his appliances. Roman Ritter. K. 2003. Moreover. but on the maximum amount of power likely to be consumed. as was experienced for example in Indonesia (Preiser. it can be stated that the first approach of energy-based tariffs is well applicable in mini-grids of a substantial size with a considerable number of consumers. power consumption can be limited electrically by regulating the current into the home. . In comparison to energy-based tariffs the power-based tariff is easier to understand for consumers and requires less effort for payment collection. while the second approach of power-based tariffs is likely to be better applicable in mini-grids with a concise number of consumers and well-established social structures. this approach generally restricts availability of electricity to consumers and. et al.. Generally. However. Energy-based tariffs using energy meters are applied for well-income consumers and businesses as restaurants. 2000). Moreover. However. which he is not allowed to exceed and for which he monthly pays a constant amount of money. This approach obviously depends much on the honesty of the consumers and is disadvantageous in this respect since it does not apply control mechanisms.37 Figure 5.1 gives an overview about the key issues addressed so far being important with regard to distribution. in Eschborn/Germany on August 14th. reliable load limiters are mostly less expensive than reliable energy meters. organisation and financing. furthermore. electrification projects will most likely apply a mixture of both tariffs.. reliability and accuracy of electrical load limiters is often poor.38 37 38 Personal Comment Jörg Baur. In practice. To avoid this problem. overloading of the system can be avoided and every user gets the same possibility of access to electricity services. In the most simple variation. GTZ.

1 Hybrid Village Systems: Distribution Steps 5. Figure 5. Aspects as the education of technicians are part of capacity building. Other important aspects on capacity building are to be discussed in the following. Most likely approach. For other private providers. demands high donor involvement Public power utility is usually not interested much in decentralised rural electrification due to high costs. In order to exploit the full potential a hybrid system offers.3 Capacity Building Capacity Building is a major aspect for the success of any project implemented in developing countries. thus subsidies necessary.5 Key success factors 60 Rural Electrification with Hybrid Village Systems Sales Model Distribution Model Cash Credit Leasing Existing Utility Service Model Communitybased Provider Open-Market Provider System Owner Buyer Buyer Dealer Energy Service Company (ESCo) Operator Private Entrepreneur Village Co-operative ESCo Maintenance Operator Local Technician ESCo Energy-based Tariff Power-based Tariff Tariff Energy Meters Agreement Fee-for-Service Load Limiters Applicable for Large Mini-grids Small Mini-grids Evaluation Unlikely due to low profits. thus needing subsidies. but have already been outlined above. . the potential profit is too low for involvement. Education on Demand-side management Hybrid systems are installed at certain capacities and are therefore limited. education on demand-side management is advisable.

and can be included in an agreement. This is especially important in order not to raise unreasonable expectations. this question is of major importance. Two major possibilities are worth mentioning. which do not necessarily have to take place in the evening. A successful project for rural electrification with hybrid systems should prepare the ground for economic development. etc. This agreement describes explicitly all obligations for the potential consumers. Education of Consumers on Obligations and Behaviour Another aspect in educating consumers deals with the obligations related to the connection to an electricity supply system. This policy is best to be established in a written manner. 2000a). will not be tolerated. and prefer to be convinced by being informed about the possibilities and the functioning of hybrid systems visually. If consumers are not aware of it. which is to be signed by the consumers.e. during daytime.e. and electrical lines and appliances should be handled with caution (ESMAP. Additionally. a policy encouraging the payment of bills by disconnecting non-paying consumers from electricity supply needs to be established. i. If markets for hybrid systems are to be developed. Other issues to be addressed in consumer education include theft of power and safety. but also for larger systems in case of village electrification. Common for the use of electricity in developing countries is the occurrence of a relatively high peak demand during evening hours. and therefore helps to better exploit the potential of a hybrid system. which cannot be obtained by electrification alone. Firstly. This reduces electricity consumption considerably. Hybrid systems strongly need accompanying with regard to economic development by teaching about important aspects of business founding. the limitation of their electricity supply system can lead to consumer’s dissatisfaction and frustration. Especially in the case of household systems. This has to be explained to consumers in order to make the project a financial success. when for example lights are switched on everywhere in the village. then rural population should not be left alone with the system. Education on Business Planning If the potential of hybrid systems is to be fully exploited. the installed capacity of a hybrid system may soon be insufficient to meet the demand. an example can be found at the World Bank (ESMAP. then awareness rising is essential. ironing. through bypassing energy meters or current limiters. project examples are an important aspect for the dissemination of knowledge on hybrid systems. These include especially financial obligations: the understanding of the need to pay for receiving electricity is not to be taken for granted. and to guide them in using it correctly by performing activities. 2000a). Demand-side management also refers to the use of energy-saving appliances such as energy saving bulbs. i.5 Key success factors 61 Demand-side management in the first place refers to consumption habits. It is therefore important to make consumers aware of the limitations of the system. The issue of safety should be addressed because for many areas electricity is a new commodity. The example of Inner Mongo- . If other appliances are used at the same time. Population in rural areas in developing countries are commonly sceptic towards unknown approaches in the first place. Consumers must be aware that theft of power. Awareness Rising as a Means of Market Development The issue of awareness rising refers to making public hybrid systems as an option for rural electrification. as setting up business plans.

. D.5 Key success factors 62 lia.2. 5. Experts see the point of reliability as a major hurdle for the adaptation of hybrid systems in developing countries. Other aspects. proves this (GTZ. 2001): o assessment of electricity demand prior to the project o provision of credit guarantees or cash sales for group lending o independent operation of the hybrid system o financing Generally. Sheriff. 2001).4. 2001). 2003.. By informing and training the staff of multiplier organisations as local non-governmental organisations (NGOs). Local institutions or NGOs can play an even greater role than just capacity building.. the other villages are likely to get interested as well. where project examples in rural administrative villages contributed to the dissemination of especially household systems. oversizing of the renewable energy generator is not an option.4 Technical Aspects Main technical aspects of hybrid systems have already been discussed in chapter 2. Most technical problems observed with hybrid system are not result of failures of single components itself.. but are due to rather frequent failures of components’ integration. E. The same phenomenon applies to hybrid systems for village electrification: if the neighbour village owns one and feels satisfied.. this issue is a major challenge. they are rather a tool. For the purpose of developing markets. But real market development can just take place through replication (Richards. This fact increases the importance of pilot projects for awareness rising. GTZ. it can be stated that for awareness rising in developing countries the word-ofmouth propaganda is the most effective way. S. For hybrid systems. project examples should not be seen as the end of dissemination activities.. However. et al. in Eschborn/Germany. 1999)..39 - 39 Personal Comment given by Jörg Baur.. Sheriff. F. he will tell this to his friends and neighbours and make them aware of the possibility to use hybrid systems for electrification. on August 14th. Secondly.. D. too. the dissemination of hybrid systems can be promoted. S. Pneumaticos. include (ESMAP. Key requirement from a technical point of view is simplicity and reliability (Turcotte. However. multiplier organisations can play an important role. the regional administration or others. If someone owns a hybrid household system and feels satisfied with it. The trained staff can then multiply the obtained information by teaching the interested public about the possibilities of hybrid systems. especially with regard to maintenance requirements. 2003). Pneumaticos. which can be addressed by these organisations. since it increases system costs especially in the case of photovoltaic-based systems remarkably (Turcotte. Key success factors from a technical point of view are the following: The design of hybrid systems should always seek to maximise utilisation of local resources in order to keep the use diesel fuel low. pilot projects indeed can contribute to the sale of the technology. since these systems are rather sophisticated. F.

2000a). while underestimation of load demand is likely to entail frustration on poor system performance due to excessive consumption. which is lower than the system’s lifetime. As the project examples in chapter 4 prove. it is here referred to the Mini-Grid Design Manual published by the World Bank. for appropriate comparison certain restrictions apply for the surveyed area: The surveyed area should have a similar type of electricity service. the optimal system performance is closely linked to an accurate demand assessment. By doing so. The knowledge of so far non-electrified households on their real demand for electricity is very limited. 5.1. However.2. two different situations need to be distinguished (ESMAP. already-electrified regions with similar characteristics (ESMAP. two different aspects are of major importance: Demand Assessment and Projections The assessments of current demand for electricity as well as projections of future growth in demand are essential. As described in chapter 3. Similar tariffs are applied in the surveyed regions as are planned for the new project. 2000a). but also of potential future growth is of major importance for hybrid systems. but also the history of load growth can be determined and taken into consideration. and may soon lead to dissatisfaction of consumers if future growth is not accurately forecasted in advance. Demand in the surveyed region is not kept down by applying consumption restrictions due to limited installed capacity. the electricity demand is likely to increase substantially.4. If the system is to be installed in a region. the potential of hybrid systems to economic development is comparatively high. then the growth in demand during the whole lifetime has to be accounted. The relevance results from the fact that over sizing of the hybrid system inherently increases the overall system costs. which expects grid-based electrification in medium-term perspective. making adequate load projections is frequently a very difficult task.5 Key success factors 63 For information on key technical issues to be considered when erecting mini-grids in developing countries in general. 2000a): If the system is to be installed in a region.4. and the corresponding financial burden in terms of the monthly bills for electricity supply cannot be overviewed by them. For a hybrid system. the World Bank proposes to assess electricity demand by surveying adjoining. 2000a). - . which describes major technical aspects in detail (ESMAP. However. The assessment of not only actual demand for electricity. as the World Bank describes (ESMAP. not only the actual demand for electricity. meaning 24-hour power supply in the case of hybrid systems. Therefore. which is likely not to be connected to conventional grid during the lifetime of the system.5 Assessment of Electricity Demand and Potential for Renewable Energies In order to guarantee optimal sizing of hybrid systems and the application of the most suitable hybrid combinations. For this reason. then this period has to be accounted for growth projections. The approach of simply asking households for their potential electricity demand is not sufficient.

e. a rural electrification committee. The World Bank states that no project on electrification has ever succeeded without the backing of political will (ESMAP. legalisation of rural energy markets In many countries legislation does not allow for private operators to provide electricity services. This is essential for choosing the appropriate system design and to quantify the share of the renewable energy resource for electricity generation. A general problem in developing countries concerning the role of government results from unrealistic promises during election campaigns. value-added taxes or other taxes. accurate assessment of these resources is important. ideally through policy statements and direct support of respective initiatives. Foley. 2001). 1998). Elimination of Tax and Duty Barriers The introduction of renewable energy technologies in many countries faces obstacles from unfair import duties. subsidies on diesel fuel or kerosene need to be lowered or fully eliminated in order to decrease competitive disadvantages of renewable energy technologies. G. 2001): Defining the Role of the Government The central and local governments need to be involved from the very beginning and to demonstrate commitment to decentralised electrification. Moreover. This then needs to be changed in a way that allows private operators to supply electricity to regions without electricity.5 Key success factors 64 An important role in assessing energy demand plays the population itself: involvement of rural population. and therefore it is tried here to state the main political framework conditions for decentralised hybrid system projects. can do much to obtain information on demand and future growth (Barnes. i. and with it hybrid systems. which require converse occurrence of insolation and wind power in order to produce electricity on a 24-hours basis. Sector reforms may be necessary.6 Political Factors The political framework is a major issue for decentralised electrification as well. Establishing electricity laws. Investigation of the Potential for Hybrid Systems for Electrification In order to assess the potential for hybrid systems for electrification of a certain area. which need to be eliminated in order to make the option of renewable energy. Three key issues can be identified (ESMAP. and supporting institutions might need to be established.. competitive. 5. Project developers report from the example of Morocco that the promise to extend the conventional grid to non-electrified areas had the ef- . Especially in the case of PV/Wind hybrid systems. D.. since this is traditionally the exclusive right of national or regional utility. the potential of wind power and/or the extent of insolation need to be investigated prior to project implementation.

. and general characteristics of electrification.e. Main issues to be addressed include environmental concerns for fossil fuel powered sources. Decentralised electrification is often seen as a second class electrification. D. Sheriff. 28th. at Intersolar Fair in Freiburg/Germany. because they fear then to be ignored when the grid connection becomes possible. 40 Personal Comment given by Dirk-Uwe Sauer. growing demand for electricity in developing countries. and grid connection is preferred strongly. For the project developers it is therefore important when addressing the governments to intensively inform them about the benefits of rural electrification with decentralised systems. F. on June. 2001). . 2003. S.. and ongoing advances in technology (Turcotte.5 Key success factors 65 fect that decentralised solutions were not accepted among rural population. Pneumaticos. i.40 People rather remain without electrification for some more years than to be electrified with other systems.. Fraunhofer ISE – Club für ländliche Elektrifizierung. with hybrid systems.

Renewable energies are an environmental benign solution for rural electrification. did not result in a clear yes concerning their application. hybrid systems are likely to be more beneficial than are other technologies. on the one hand by unrealistically high expectations on side of the population. Modern approaches. which has lead to customer dissatisfaction in many cases. This problem is recently met with the application of hybrid systems. As is the case always for the application of renewable energies as PV and wind in developing countries. since diesel gensets usually cannot evolve the full potential of electrification for rural development. address the challenge of rural electrification with decentralised energy supply systems applying renewable energies. on the other hand due to problems with reliability of the systems. the application of renewable energies for rural electrification has not yet been the success story it was expected to be. a good potential for economic development. and that expectations associated to decentralised rural electrification are likely to be met. Objective of this work. Common practice to meet the problem of rural electrification in developing countries is the use of diesel gensets. The main problem for the application of renewable energies in rural electricity supply. therefore. are questions of financing and maintenance. renewable energies. The assessment revealed that from a point of view of environmental and socio-economic sustainability. Problematic. which hybrid . Main strengths of hybrid systems from an environmental perspective include low emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants compared to conventional methods for rural electrification.. i. The assessment was performed in comparative terms relative to other solutions for rural electricity supply by using an indicator set developed within this work. therefore. and have several additional benefits related to their use. The extension of the conventional grid is often economically not feasible for remote rural areas. It was argued that in order to fully exploit the potential. thus. however. since they are less dependent on external interference. and is integral part especially for furtherance of economic progress. however.6 Summary and Conclusions 66 6 Summary and Conclusions Rural electrification is commonly seen as essential part for the development of rural areas in developing countries. use locally available resources and offer a high potential with regard to local independence compared to grid extension and diesel gensets. however. main advantages include reliable and continuous energy supply and. was to generally assess the sustainability of hybrid systems for rural electrification with regard to environmental. In many cases renewable energies have failed to meet the expectations of rural population. socio-economic and economic issues. The assessment of sustainability of hybrid systems. This approach.e. was and is the intermittent supply of power due to the fluctuating nature of the resources. Despite these numerous advantages. from a socio-economic perspective. rural electrification is a problematic issue. these issues are major hurdles and require attention during the planning of hybrid system projects and high donor involvement through subsidies and the development of maintenance structures. thus. but also from a socio-economic and economic perspective. is as well unfavourable not only from an environmental. however. and can as well be undesirable from a point of view of environmental sustainability. However. and to identify key success factors to improve the sustainability of a hybrid rural electrification project.

should and cannot be seen as the ultimate solution for rural electrification in developing countries. and they might then ideally be chosen for those villages in the region. since economic benefits not just depend on the availability of energy. capacity building as an essential condition to create the appropriate framework for economic development and for correct use of the hybrid systems. and the potential to meet the demand with renewable energies for an appropriate system design. the indicator set developed here might provide a framework for the assessment whether environmental and socio-economic surpluses attributable to hybrid systems justify the high investment and the necessary effort in setting up maintenance structures. and political framework conditions and several technical aspects. Although the assessment here was performed in rather global terms and although therefore in individual cases the assessment might be a different one. however. or the implementation of an appropriate tariff system. They might therefore be applied within the context of whole electrification programmes for remote rural areas as an integral part of a set of different methods. the assessment of electricity demand now and projected to the future. for which the preconditions and circumstances allow to expect the full evolvement of the system’s potential.6 Summary and Conclusions 67 systems certainly can offer especially with regard to economic development. Hybrid systems. but also on other conditions favouring economic development. the results allow the statement that hybrid systems can be a sustainable option. This paper has also identified key factors to successfully apply hybrid systems in developing countries. which make them comparable to the conventional grid especially with regard to the quality of electricity supply. For an analysis of respective projects.and ability-to-pay for electricity service. Main issues to be addressed include organisational issues with decision on appropriate distribution models and the implementation of sustainable maintenance schemes. a certain economic development should already be taking place in the area to be electrified. Hybrid systems are here assessed to be a promising approach for decentralised rural electrification. issues of financing as the investigation of willingness. . certain framework conditions need to be established. Despite their advantages. Moreover. meanwhile being more environmentally benign. hybrid systems require a holistic approach towards electrification.

schools.) and public consumption (public lighting.30 876. with village sizes from 30 to 300 households. Moreover.Annex A: Electricity Demand and System Design 68 Annex A: Electricity Demand and System Design A. Table A.3 94.1 Standard Household Characteristics Equipment Energy Saving Lamp TV (b/w) Radio Total Number Capacity [W] 4 1 1 10 20 10 70 Daily Hours of Operation [h/d] 3 6 2 Daily Electricity Consumption [kWh/d] 0..8 7. health care. The base load is of major importance for the design of the diesel genset in a hybrid system. Erich Geis.00 7.26 Annual Electricity Consumption [kWh/a] 43.18 0. . 2000).12 0.00 Energy Saving Lamp TV (Colour) Radio Refrigerator Total 6 1 1 1 10 100 10 300 470 In a next step.60 0. Additional electricity consumption results from commercial (shops.70 219. J. 2003. former KfW staff member. This is accounted by adding 40% excess consumption on the consumption of the individual households.2 Rich Household Characteristics Equipment Number Capacity [W] Daily Hours of Operation [h/d] 3 6 2 8 Daily Electricity Consumption [kWh/d] 0. during a telephone interview on August. while 90% are standard households.9 Table A. It is assumed that energy saving lighting is applied within the electrification project.20 Annual Electricity Consumption [kWh/a] 65.41 The figures adopted here are mainly based on data from (Baur.8 43. etc.02 0. the base load of the villages is calculated. 22nd.02 2.). etc. since the diesel 41 Personal Recommendation Mr. the peak load for different village sizes are calculated. two different types of households with different consumption behaviour are distinguished: standard households and rich households.1 Calculation of Electricity Demand For the calculation.12 0.40 3.00 1168. It is assumed here that (fictitious) 10% of all households in the village are rich. handicraft businesses.

0 49.5 8.5 Base Load (Refrigerators) Daily [kWh/d] 7.7 46.0 160.4 21.0 60.3 Peak and Base Loads for Different Village Sizes Number of Households Daily [kWh/d] 23.5 36.4 9.5 72.5 20.1 22647.0 5. Institut für Solare Energieversorgungstechnik (ISET).0 120.0 80.1 100.5 50.8 73.0 200.0 12.9 38.8 42.9 69.5 193.0 Annual [kWh/a] 2628 3066 3504 3942 4380 4818 5256 5694 6132 6570 7008 7446 7884 8322 8760 9636 10512 11388 12264 13140 14016 14892 15330 17520 19710 21900 Standard Rich Total 27.2 8.6 116.6 10.0 157.0 140.0 95.8 9908.0 26.0 4.8 31. Table A.4 40.0 50.7 15570.0 55.42 To simplify matters.0 40.0 58. Table A.2 33.3 124.3 shows the results for different village sizes.1 19816.8 18.0 225.0 3.0 45.0 153.0 17.0 85.0 100.1 174.2 39633.8 12739.0 126. 2003.1 31.0 8.0 34.0 30.2 62.0 170.8 12.3 27.0 13.0 25478.3 58.1 131.Annex A: Electricity Demand and System Design 69 genset should normally be designed to satisfy the base demand.9 135.0 38.0 144.0 108.2 16985.5 24063.6 16.0 135.8 63696.8 108. during a telephone interview on August 20th.0 7.0 130.0 35.0 11.8 42.0 54.0 9.0 49541.1 45295.5 4.5 9.7 155.7 77.5 63.0 70. the load caused by the adaptation of refrigerators is defined as the base load.5 180.9 Peak Load Annual [kWh/a] 8492.5 26893.8 24.0 65.6 18401.0 99.0 150.2 42464.0 250.2 14.2 70773.0 42 Personal Comment Mr.4 15.5 54.0 85.0 17.0 90.3 33971.0 48.5 6.0 13.3 11323. Strauß.5 45.5 56618.5 10.0 6.0 3.0 19.0 22.6 85.0 67. .5 90.0 40.0 76.0 48126.0 60.5 81.5 25.4 28.4 31140.5 5.9 28309.6 36.3 93.0 31.0 14.0 15.6 21232.6 22.2 14154.5 7.0 175.0 110.0 65.0 117.0 202.0 16.3 36802.5 225.4 54.2 20.0 75.

. good site Equals 6 h/d Own assumption. It is obvious that the design of the systems here is therefore rather rough and that real application of hybrid systems would require accurate system design with the help of optimisation models as for example TALCO (Technical and Least Cost Optimisation. R.3 232.Annex A: Electricity Demand and System Design 70 Number of Households Daily Peak Load Annual [kWh/a] 77850. Strauss.5 270. . 2002) Own assumption.2 kWh/m2/d In December: 2.0 Annual [kWh/a] 24090..0 300. Italy. 2001) Personal Recommendation Mr.000 h/a Miscellaneous Energy losses due to inverter and battery: 24% (Haselhuhn. 2002). (Homer. 43 Deutsche Gesellschaft für Sonnenenergie Average Site in Trapani.. Source Meteosat 2 Remarks/Source 43 During a telephone interview on August 21st. 2003)) or HOMER (Evaluation of design options. C.0 A. 2003.. F.35 (Turcotte.190 h/a Efficiency: 0. (FHG ISE.000 W/m2 Diesel Genset Annual operating time in Mini-Grid: 2. ISET44 Personal Recommendation given by Claudia Hemmerle.3 Designed to meet the base load Wind Generator Annual Full Load Hours: 2. Berger.5 30. Berger.2 System Design The design of hybrid systems here is based on personal comments by project developers and literature review (Haselhuhn. However. Pneumaticos.. it seems sufficient. For the system design..85 In Winter: 0. R.0 72.664 kWh/m /a Radiation on a surface with 10° incline In June: 7. F. 2003)). 2003.25 – 0. C.. Sheriff. the following basic assumptions are made: Table A.4 Main Modelling Assumptions PV Modules Annual Global Radiation: 1. Hemmerle. typically between 0.0 Standard Rich Total [kWh/d] 213. 44 During a telephone interview on August 20th.9 Norm Radiation = 1.0 275. Hemmerle. F. S..9 84928. D.0 27.2 Base Load (Refrigerators) Daily [kWh/d] 66.2 kWh/m2/d Temperature Correction In Summer: 0..7 247. for a comparative assessment.0 26280.

45 Given at Intersolar Fair in Freiburg/Germany on June 28th. . the calculations lead to the following system designs for the different village sizes. 1/3 PV Own assumption Common design for cost optimisation Based on these assumptions. Georg Weingarten. 20% Diesel Genset PV/Wind Hybrid Systems Share: 2/3 Wind. 2003. 45 demand in winter Energiebau GmbH Wind/Diesel Hybrid Systems Share: 80 % Wind.Annex A: Electricity Demand and System Design 71 For the different hybrid systems.5 Share of Technologies for Electricity Generation PV/Diesel Hybrid Systems Share: 80 % PV. the following share on electricity generation was attributed to the different generators: Table A. 20% Diesel Genset Remarks/Source Common design for cost optimisation PV generator is designed to meet 50% of the electricity Personal Recommendation Mr.

7 15098.4 13211.3 16042.7 7.8 3774.3 7926.6 4246.9 14.5 14720.8 18.Annex A: Electricity Demand and System Design 72 Total Number of Households 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 Diesel Capacity [kW] 1.4 4718.0 10.0 System Design PV/Wind PV Capacity [kW] 2.7 9.5 16.8 9436.9 12.4 66.4 11323.8 5.7 4.3 16985.0 10191.2 8021.4 7549.4 2.3 9.8 2.1 System Design PV/Diesel 80% PV [kWh/a] 6794.2 8.0 6.4 11323.1 5661.3 4.1 8.4 8.9 15853.0 19250.1 11323.5 14720.3 20.6 3.3 16985.7 10.4 11.3 5.0 10191.8 7.1 6.9 6605.9 10.3 11.5 7.5 3.6 12.0 3.9 System Design Wind/Diesel 80% Wind [kWh/a] 6794.2 15.1 13588.1 14154.6 18118.6 18118.1 13588.7 9.9 3302.0 5.6 9059.7 33.5 5.5 10380.5 7077.8 12456.6 21.0 7.5 7549.2 5.2 6.7 3.0 19.0 Wind Capacity at 2000 h/a [kW] 3.3 3.2 8492.4 Wind Capacity at 2000 h/a [kW] 4.5 4.6 9059.2 6.9 4.8 12267.8 12456.3 7926.9 9.6 6.2 4.4 PV Capacity [kW] 7.8 5.0 3.7 6605.2 5190.4 8.9 6133.6 6.2 11.9 4.9 15853.0 19250.3%PV [kWh/a] 2830.1 2.6 3.6% Wind [kWh/a] 5661.6 .

8 15.8 28.5 24534.3 30.8 45.8 21515.9 19.0 38500.3 27177.9 Wind Capacity at 2000 h/a [kW] 11.5 33971.8 12267.7 41.6% Wind [kWh/a] 16985.2 45295.5 24912.1 14154.8 18872.6 37745.9 14.2 7.3 18872.2 17.9 20760.6 17929.7 14.2 10.3 26.7 32084.0 29441.4 13.5 10380.5 System Design Wind/Diesel 80% Wind [kWh/a] 20382.3 23.3%PV [kWh/a] 8492.8 26422.4 9.4 66.8 39633.2 24.8 31706.8 8.1 22647.1 22647.0 PV Capacity [kW] 23.2 14.4 30196.4 18.0 16513.0 6.4 13211.3 36236.1 38.3 8.1 21.5 12.1 51.0 Wind Capacity at 2000 h/a [kW] 13.7 9.3 27177.9 System Design PV/Wind PV Capacity [kW] 7.5 36.7 15098.8 12.6 9436.8 .0 33027.0 13.1 28309.9 16.8 8964.9 16.1 11323.0 9.1 17.6 19.5 24912.3 16042.5 33971.6 10.8 25.1 29.2 45295.6 7.8 31706.3 12.4 5.9 21.8 33.2 43.5 25.8 39633.0 29441.8 21515.4 20.Annex A: Electricity Demand and System Design 73 Total Number of Households 90 95 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 175 200 Diesel Capacity [kW] 5.3 36236.4 17.2 11.7 6.4 11.4 14.0 38500.9 22.9 33.8 8.0 System Design PV/Diesel 80% PV [kWh/a] 20382.2 22647.7 24.6 10.2 13.

2 25950.7 67942.Annex A: Electricity Demand and System Design 74 Total Number of Households 225 250 275 300 Diesel Capacity [kW] 13.9 77.2 41.1 23591.5 37.1 66.6% Wind [kWh/a] 42464.3 28309.6 56618.0 16.5 15.9 31.2 .3%PV [kWh/a] 21232.0 64.9 56618.7 33.0 34.9 26.6 PV Capacity [kW] 58.1 37.3 System Design Wind/Diesel 80% Wind [kWh/a] 50956.8 62280.7 23.8 62280.5 18.6 21.0 System Design PV/Diesel 80% PV [kWh/a] 50956.1 47182.4 70.9 56618.7 67942.0 44.3 51900.6 Wind Capacity at 2000 h/a [kW] 33.8 Wind Capacity at 2000 h/a [kW] 27.4 System Design PV/Wind PV Capacity [kW] 19.

Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations

75

Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations
B.1 Scenario Definitions
For the comparison of the different electrification scenarios, the main requirement for adequate comparison is that in all scenarios the same amount of electricity is provided. Here, a village with 170 households is chosen, with peak electricity consumption of 48,126 kWh/a, which is to be produced by the different scenarios. SHS, however, are seen as an exception here. SHS are just used for household electrification, and since real application is to be investigated, this is accounted for here. It is assumed that every household is supplied with a 50 Wp SHS-module each, generating 80 kWh/a at the given global irradiation, efficiency and energy density. For the assessment of the impacts of conventional grid-based electrification on ecology, three commonly used developing/transition countries are chosen: Brazil for its high share of hydro power plants on electricity supply; China for its high share coal power plants on electricity supply; and South Africa as an African representative and with comparatively high share of nuclear power.

The different electricity supply systems are chosen from the database of GEMIS. An overview on system designs and main assumptions is given in the following.
Scenario 1: Hybrid systems
PV Module PV/Diesel monocrystalline PVmodule, system with aluminium-frame incl. Elevation after DIN small-scale dieselmotor for decentral electricity production, no emission control (base case) 20 9,625.2 10.2 30 1,460 10 Own assumption Source: GEMIS; for the diesel generator, no emission control is applied as worst case scenario Wind Generator Diesel Remarks/Source

Description

Electricity Production [%] Electricity Production [kWh/a] Installed Capacity [kW] Efficiency [%] Annual Operating Hours [h/a] Lifetime [a]

80 38,500.8 43.8 10 1,664 20

Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations
PV Module PV/Wind monocrystalline PVsmall-scale single module, system mit wind turbine, for good aluminium-frame incl. sites Elevation after DIN 33.3 16,042 14.8 10 1,664 20 66.7 32,084 21.1 100 2,000 12 Own estimation Wind Generator Diesel

76
Remarks/Source

Description

Source: GEMIS

Electricity Production [%] Electricity Production [kWh/a] Installed Capacity [kW] Efficiency [%] Annual Operating Hours [h/a] Lifetime [a] Wind/Diesel

Description

small-scale dieselmoSmall-scale single tor for decentral elecwind turbine, for good tricity production, no emission control sites (base case) 80 38,500.8 25.3 100 2,000 12 20 9,625.2 10.2 30 1,460 10

Source: GEMIS; for the diesel generator, no emission control is applied as worst case scenario

Electricity Production [%] Electricity Production [kWh/a] Installed Capacity [kW] Efficiency [%] Annual Operating Hours [h/a] Lifetime [a]

Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations

77
Remarks/Source

Scenario 2: Diesel Mini-Grid
Diesel Mini-Grid

Description

small-scale dieselmotor for decentral electricity Source: GEMIS; no emission control as is production, no emission control (base case) common in developing countries

Electricity Production [kWh/a] Installed Capacity [kWp] Efficiency [%] Annual Operating Hours [h/a] Lifetime [a] 48,126

22 30 2,190 6 Own assumption

Scenario 3: Renewable Energy
Solar Home system Remarks/Source Biogas Plant Remarks/Source Small generator for biogas from decentral Source: GEMIS; fermentation for elecCatalytic Converter tricity generation in added; Converter developing countries, meets World Bank with three-way cataEmission and Imlytic-converter for remission Standards duction of NOx/CO/NMVOC 35,058.3 170 Buildings, each one SHS

Description

Complete 50 Wp Solar Home System, incl. battery & CFL bulbs, with 100% firm power due to battery storage

Source: GEMIS

Electricity Production [kWh/a] Installed Capacity [kWp] Efficiency [%] Annual Operating Hours [h/a] Lifetime [a]

13,600

8.5 10 1,600 20

10 27.74 4,813 10

Own estimation Source: GEMIS

Own estimation

98 3.903.1 577.7 4.2 50 100 6.506 15 Description Nuclear power plant Coal-fired steamhydro-electric power (pressurised lightturbine power plant in plant . of 5 g/MWh-el. but gasification of wood.removal. no SO2.000 30 950 33 6.5 300 38 5. no cool.5 0. injected gas turbine = STIG 8.2 1.dam + reservoir water reactor LWR) in China.3 4.250 33 6. includes asNOx.5 8.117.1 here neglected 600 38 6.597.plant (pressurisedbine for developing water reactor.000 20 250 100 4.8 10 38. in China China. 80.000 50 .000 20 39. PWR) sized power plant with Large scale river countries.Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations 78 Hydroelectric Power Plant Scenario 4: Grid-Extension Coal Power Plant Brazil In Brazil: bagasse.6 Nuclear Power Plant Others Description Electricity Production [%] Electricity Production [kWh/a] Installed Capacity [MW] Efficiency [%] Annual Operating Hours [h/a] Lifetime [a] China 3.000 30 2.213.5 1. electric filter.2 18.4 82.800.sumed nuclear waste simple-cycle steaming tower. Large hard coal power Generic nuclear power Here dealt with as biomass: mediumplant with steam tur.994.1 Electricity Production [%] Electricity Production [kWh/a] Installed Capacity [MW] Efficiency [%] Annual Operating Hours [h/a] Lifetime [a] 38.000 50 2.or in developing counintegrated biomass power plant Brazil tries.

4 here neglected 500 38 5.5 1. PWR with 2x 920 no SO2. Greenhouse Gas Emissions The following table shows the amount of greenhouse gas emissions attributable to the different electrification scenarios.Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations Coal Power Plant South Africa Nuclear power plant Large hard coal power Koeberg close to Cape plant with steam turTown. Nuclear Power Plant Hydroelectric Power Plant Others 79 Description Electricity Production [%] Electricity Production [kWh/a] Installed Capacity [MW] Efficiency [%] Annual Operating Hours [h/a] Lifetime [a] 93. air pollutants and the cumulative energy demand (CED) were calculated.1 0.200 25 360 100 3. supplied with energy due to the different scenarios. With GEMIS.561 50 B. South Africa. CO2-Equivalents aggregate the different greenhouse gas emissions due to their contribution to the greenhouse effect.5 5. . the amount of greenhouse gas emissions. of 5 g/MWh-el.or NOx.1 44.646. bine in South Africa.9 529.997.reMW-netto.000 25 920 33 7.2 Modelling Results The following section gives an overview and interpretation on the results of the GEMIS calculation for a village of 170 household. includes moval. cooling tower assumed nuclear waste with wet recooling.8 2.

35E-06 6. which can be explained with the high share of coal in electricity production.93 3.422.071.7% of hydropower for electricity generation.637.000 30. which applies 82.000 10.63 2.80E-03 4.165. The comparison of hybrid systems with grid-based electrification shows expected results for South Africa and China.11E-03 5.56 29.05E-08 1.16 12. PV/Wind hybrid systems do not apply fossil resources during operation.710.98E-06 8. For Brazil.1 Amount of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Option [kg] PV/ Diesel Wind/ Diesel PV/ Wind Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South Africa China CO2Equivalents [kg] 18.000 0 PV/ Wind/ PV/ Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South China Diesel Diesel Wind Af rica Figure B.31 2.593.Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations 80 Table B.38 0.73E-07 7.24 2.95 CH4 [kg] 27.27 42.38 56.43 13.65E-03 7.47E-07 8.53E-06 1.43 17. so that their GHG emissions are equal to those attributable to SHS and biogas.16E-06 2.36 46.44E-07 1.27 3.00 3.51 10.815.000 Greenhouse Gases [kg CO2-Equivalents] 50.75 54.707.02 8.50 0.38E-06 6.63 CO2 [kg] 17.35 Perfluormethane Perfluorethane [kg] [kg] 2.533.52 553.11E-02 5.73 11.945.53 54. The comparison with renewable energy technologies shows a likewise expected result: diesel based hybrid systems result in more GHG emissions than do SHS and biogas plants due to the application of the diesel generator.46E-06 3.31 1.000 40.43 40.32 0.677.340.37 34.52E-07 1.09 1. 60.83E-07 4.568.000 20.503. the result .201.10 1. The comparison with diesel genset shows the expected result: the application of hybrid systems result in less GHG emissions due to the fact that the diesel generator accounts for just 80% of the electricity production.80 4.50 0.40E-07 1.887.74E-07 These figures are illustrated by the following graphs.1 GEMIS Results: GHG Emissions The comparison of the different scenarios clearly shows that hybrid systems result in relatively few GHG emissions.04 6.969.57 166.69 N2O [kg] 0.23 234.879.

have a comparatively high greenhouse potential and therefore significantly contribute to the aggregated CO2Equivalents. although from their total amount fewer than CO2 emissions. the Brazilian grid results in similar GHG emissions as do PV/Diesel systems. the diesel generator applied in the model here does not apply emission reduction measures as catalytic converters. 600 Methance Emissions [kg] 500 400 300 200 100 0 PV/ Wind/ PV/ Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South China Diesel Diesel Wind Africa Figure B.2 GEMIS Results: Methane Emissions CH4 emissions. Secondly.2. Air Pollutants The following tables show the amount of air pollutants attributable to the different electrification scenarios. . This has two main reasons: Firstly. SO2-Equivalents aggregate the different air pollutants due to their acidification potential.Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations 81 seems surprising in the first instance. the application of hydroelectric power plants results in a high degree of CH4 emissions as shows figure B.

73 SO2 [kg] 53.56E-05 5.01 0.12 5.97E-05 1.77E-10 1.83 799.05E-06 1.40 0.04 40.47E-05 4.65E-08 2.56E-05 4.27E-05 4.15E-09 -4.18E-05 3.17E-12 8.71 1.24E-08 1.69 25.43E-05 1.94E-10 1.74E-05 6.Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations 82 Table B.89E-06 4.46E-10 1.85 0.52E-04 PV/ Wind Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil 5.53 116.88 3.89E-05 4.00E-06 2.03E-04 4.04E-05 1.04E-05 5.85 297.40 H2 S [kg] -1.2 Air Pollutants Option PV/ Diesel Wind/ Diesel PV/ Wind Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South Africa China 9. .87E-11 SO2Equivalent [kg] 172.76E-06 6.06 186.56 14.04E-04 3.89E-05 South Africa 8.18E-07 3.62 390.49E-10 2.22 246.08 0.00 0.28E-03 Wind/ Diesel 3.29 16.67E-05 1.47 0.23E-05 1.17E-04 3.76E-04 1.01 0.46E-05 1.30 222.21E-06 3.32E-06 5.50 0.30E-06 1.54 161.39E-04 6.57E-04 China 5.36 197.01 21.22 32.66 0.33 1.92E-08 6.48 43.07 1.66E-07 These figures are illustrated with the following graphs.44E-09 4.35E-05 2.91 0.37 2.17 1.91E-06 2.42E-05 6.20 77.86E-06 1.03 3.78 27.35E-06 2.89E-05 6.42E-10 1.67 47.86 215.33E-05 9.15 0.79E-04 8.38E-08 -1.53E-05 8.51E-08 1.97E-04 8.00 155.48E-06 -1.41 NMVOC [kg] 3.04E-07 7.11E-06 2.69E-05 9.51 13.07E-06 1.13E-08 1.73E-06 5.24E-08 Option PV/ Diesel NH3 [kg] As [kg] Cd [kg] Cr [kg] Hg [kg] Ni [kg] Pb [kg] PCDD/F [kg] 1.10E-06 3.13 35.01 2.03 CO [kg] 51.76 6.87E-06 1.62E-08 1.61 4.25 HF [kg] 0.10 1.06 168.16E-05 4.64E-10 2.33E-06 2.61 134.31E-04 2.71 NOx [kg] 169.86 4.08 0.74 0.12 0.45 52.24E-04 1.88 12.75E-09 6.49E-06 3.02E-05 1.95 HCl [kg] 0.26E-07 -1.04 772.08 0.97 4.02 0.18E-05 1.79 395.22 0.66 18.06 156.19E-09 4.12E-05 1.97E-05 2.14 3.55E-05 1.03 Dust [kg] 44.22 -6.

however. the higher the share of coal in electricity production and the worse the flue gas cleaning in these countries. again the expected result is obtained. It illustrates that main pollutants in diesel systems are NOx. especially PV/Wind systems. the amount of air pollutants is significantly Figure B. the following figure is meant to provide an overview. the better the comparative performance of hybrid system. The high amount of air pollutants in the biogas system here results mainly from SO2 from sulphur in the fuel. reveals similar or less air pollutants from hybrid systems. while the conventional grid emits mainly SO2 from coal combustion. In comparison with grid-based electrification. applying a high share of hydroelectric power. is lower. The comparison with SHS shows that diesel-based hybrid systems result in higher emissions of air pollutants. However.3 GEMIS Results: Air Pollutants lower than for diesel mini-grids.Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations 83 800 Air Pollutants [kg SO2-Equivalents] 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 PV/ Wind/ PV/ Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South China Diesel Diesel Wind Af rica The comparison of the different scenarios shows that hybrid systems are likely to result in few emissions of air pollutants. NOx. For PV/Wind systems. Compared to diesel gensets. . Due to fewer operational time of the diesel generator in hybrid systems. The comparison with biogas systems. the total amount is similar. the amount of air pollutants in a country like Brazil. dust and CO. For a better overview on the amount of the main air pollutants SO2.

0 60.2 43.369.7 64.012.46 It is therefore a measure to describe the extent to which renewable and non-renewable energy resources are consumed in order to provide electricity.4 45.2 129.3 39.4 Non-Renewable Resources [kWh] 62.053.600.3 PV/Diesel Wind/Diesel PV/Wind Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South Africa China These figures are illustrated with the following graphs.1 10.705.799.3 0.3 209.1 Renewable Resources [kWh] 39.6 958.6 537.6 68.717.4 350.353.040.1 180. The following table shows the results of the GEMIS calculations.273.537.0 38.645.6 48.9 19.3 Cumulative Energy Demand (Primary Energy) Option Total CED [kWh] 103.4 Selected Air Pollutants Cumulative Energy Demand (CED) The Cumulative Energy Demand (CED) in kWh is a measure for the whole effort on energy resources (primary energy) for the provision of products or services.1 109.370.Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations 800 Selected Air Pollutants [kg] 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 PV/ Wind/ Diesel Diesel PV/ Wind Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South Africa China SO2 NOx Dust CO 84 Figure B.015.6 8.6 129. both during operation and for the construction of the power plant.742.975.085.4 123.3 82.0 210.159.454.032.747.078.2 14.4 54.0 118.2 1. Table B.8 13.0 58.0 12.681.0 Others [kWh] 2.945.3 56.602.3 59.861. 46 Source: GEMIS .

Just PV/Wind systems are able to compete with biogas and the grid of Brazil.000 geous compared to 50.000 150. hybrid systems applying diesel generators are disadvantageous.000 total cumulative energy demand 200. This is to the higher energy demand for higher installed capacity in PV/Wind hybrid systems. which shows not only a higher degree of renewable energy consumption by PV/Wind systems than with SHS.000 the diesel mini-grid and to the conven0 tional grid in counPV/ Wind/ PV/ Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South China tries with a high Diesel Diesel Wind Africa share of coal in electricity generaFigure B.6 Cumulative Energy Demand According to Resources .6 as well. but also a significantly higher degree of non-renewable energy consumption.000 CED [kWh] 200.000 100.5 Cumulative Energy Demand (Primary Energy) tion.6 as well. the consumption of non-renewable resources. this disadvantage might well be due to the fact that larger systems of higher installed capacity are applied to provide more energy than with SHS.Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations 85 The investigation of 250.000 plication of hybrid systems is advanta100. hybrid systems are all disadvantageous. This idea is supported by figure B. 250.000 shows that the ap150. being most important for this assessment here. For the case of PV/Wind hybrid systems.000 50.000 0 PV/ Wind/ PV/ Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South China Diesel Diesel Wind Africa Non-renew able Renew able Others CED [kWh] Figure B. In comparison to SHS. As is proved by figure B. In comparison to Biogas and the conventional grid of Brazil with a high share of hydropower. is higher in these hybrid systems due to the use of the diesel generator.

However. This clearly shows that this effect is not negligible. Since the load is not constant during these hours. Moreover. Therefore. Biogas plants for electrification create noise through the operation of the biogas-generator. However. affecting more villages than the discussed single remote one. power distribution lines of the mini-grid further contribute to noise generation. thus. by this resulting in a comparatively good assessment. which frequently occur.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 86 Annex C: Analysis of Impacts C. Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies The PV modules of SHS do not generate noise during operation and do not apply power distribution lines. For power distribution lines the same considerations apply as above. .1 Ecology Indicator: Noise Pollution Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets Diesel genset-based mini-grids are commonly operating the generator during evening hours. for the single remote village discussed here the impact on noise pollution is estimated to be low due to the fact that electricity generation does not take place in the village itself. larger gensets producing more noise. the noise is distributed over these large distances as well. but in reality this is not often the case and. The impact on noise pollution is therefore estimated to be negligible. with longer operation time than in diesel-based hybrid systems. the generator produces noise not only through operation. Due to this reason the impact of diesel gensets on noise pollution is evaluated to be comparatively very poor. are necessary in order to provide the same amount of electricity as with hybrid systems. Just as for hybrid systems. resulting in a comparatively good assessment. Due to the fact that power transport to remote villages takes place over large distances with high and medium voltage lines. resulting in a comparatively very good evaluation. Cushioning the noise of a diesel genset alone can as well be done by building a powerhouse. cannot be taken in consideration for the assessment here. but also due to start-up and shut-down procedures. Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid The generation of electricity in centralised power plants does not result in noise in the remote villages. power distribution lines cause significant noise pollution by generating a constantly buzzing noise. which as well can be cushioned. the impact on noise pollution created by biogas-systems is estimated to be low. usually for the duration of several hours. which could create noise.

it is also reported that people are often dissatisfied with the unreliable and intermittent energy provision with diesel gensets (Prokahausli Sangsad Ltd. 2000). so that hybrid systems are likely to face less cultural obstacles than do SHS. This effect is likely to be stronger than in hybrid systems. is not seen as guaranteed in dealing with human and animal excrements. Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid The extension of the conventional grid is usually the option being preferred the most by rural population. This is not only due to the high operational costs for diesel gensets. no major obstacles resulting from cultural incompatibilities have been reported yet. However. However. resulting in a comparatively very good performance. Thus. the use of the produced gas for the preparation of food and the use of the slurry as fertiliser is sometimes hindered on cultural grounds. which is valued very high in some religions. but probably to a higher degree since SHS is a new technology being unknown to population. All in all. 2000). As a result.. Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies For SHS. which.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 87 C. diesel gensets are still likely to face hardly any cultural obstacles or problems with acceptance than hybrid systems due to their high degree of publicity. Since word-of-mouth . people are likely to have a high degree of confidence towards this technology. SHS suffer from the same problem of acceptance due to intermittent supply as do diesel gensets. open to solutions for this. Furthermore. the feeling of being electrified in second class manner. if functioning well.. In an overall result. a preference towards these technologies can sometimes even be observed. can give to rural population. Religious taboos are experienced to arise for example from the fact that cleanliness. who is well aware of possibilities of grid-based electrification.2 Socio-Economic Issues Indicator: Cultural Compatibility and Acceptance Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets Diesel gensets are one of the most common and well-known ways to address the problem of electrification of remote areas. especially in winter (GTZ. biogas systems are estimated to be in many cases significantly less compatible to cultural issues than hybrid systems. and are. The GTZ reports obstacles arising from religious and/or social taboos (GTZ. Biogas systems have been found to be the system probably facing most cultural obstacles. Most people in rural areas are familiar of the possibilities and benefits of gridbased electrification. H. The fact that energy provision is very limited and does not satisfy all needs and expectations. 1999a). therefore performing comparatively very poor. Experiences show that only the advertisement of SHS as pre-electrification before being connected to the grid brings the necessary acceptance among rural population (Sauer. in regions where renewable energies like photovoltaic and wind have already been applied. because they have relatives or friends in cities. but also to the hard and tiring work connected to filling the tank of a generator. can supply electricity for 24 hours. 2003). Furthermore. Especially the work connected to running a biogas system can be prohibited as well. thus. SHS are assessed to perform comparatively poor with regard to cultural compatibility and acceptance.

Fraunhofer ISE – Club for Rural Electrification. the application of hybrid systems (and any other technology) has the potential to do so and to take account of matters of supply equity. at Intersolar fair. diesel gensets are relatively expensive with regard to total costs. and electrification with diesel gensets has then usually not been implemented in an elaborated way. this effect does not apply. Cosgrove-Davies.47 For this reason. 1996). the same problem might apply as for hybrid systems that matters of political power or 47 Personal Comment given by Dirk-Uwe Sauer. However. being independent from fossil resources. It is. they can be considered as completely independent from power structures even within rural communities. SHS are independent from fuel and are not likely to become matter of political power demonstrations since they belong to the consumers themselves. SHS can be assessed to be more beneficial towards supply equity. however. The fact. the GTZ notes the possibility of a further accentuation of existing differences in income and property holdings (GTZ.. so that it is decided here to assess hybrid systems and diesel gensets as equally with regard to supply equity. Schaeffer.. Comparatively high investments make this technology more affordable to well-situated families. In this respect.. Project developers even describe experiences where rural population refused to be electrified with renewable energy technologies because of their fear that the conventional grid is then likely not to be extended to their region.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 88 propaganda is a common cultural habit in developing countries. M. 1999b). the degree of cultural compatibility and acceptance of grid extension is assessed to be comparatively very good.and middle-income rural families (Cabraal. thus. L. 2003 . that investment costs for SHS are comparatively high. however. For a biogas plant on community level. SHS are significantly advantageous compared to hybrid systems and other decentralised electrification measures: because SHS provide electricity to individual households. hybrid systems are even more expensive. nevertheless. since costs for hybrid systems are high as well. Biogas systems generally seem to offer a good possibility for independent and fair power supply. From a financial perspective. The World Bank states that investment costs are in the order of magnitude of a year’s income for low. Indicator: Degree of Supply Equity Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets Diesel-based mini-grids often do already exist in developing countries. A. either free of charge or at least cheaply. Meanwhile. the extension of the conventional grid to remote villages is considered as “real electrification” and will most likely be welcomed by rural population. Once constructed. and poor farmers are likely to be coerced to deliver their manure to the landlord or more prosperous farmers. Nevertheless. However. attenuates this effect. Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies SHS offer a solution for electrification being largely independent from existing power structures. June 28th. preferred to remain for a couple of years without electrification in order to preserve the chances for grid extension.

and that people adapt energy consumption to seasonal patterns with regard to insolation (Hammamami. a general statement cannot be given. Njaimi. and therefore the effect on capacity building is here evaluated to be higher than for hybrid systems. but also needs to directly participate in the production of energy and the fertiliser.D. F. and the responsibility for this is left to the individual consumer. electricity is available. which make decentralised rural electrification highly advantageous with regard to supply equity. Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid It is a well-known fact that the conventional grid can become a matter of political power on a national level. The consumer should not only be directly involved in the planning processes. where people are to understand the limited nature of energy in order to make electricity available to everybody to the same extent. This shows the great potential this technology offers towards capacity building and empowerment. This does not result in the same effect on capacity building or social empowerment than with hybrid systems. biogas plants are seen as preferential with regard to supply equity compared to hybrid systems. 2000). This effect. et al.. Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies Experiences with PV systems in general and SHS in particular show that the link between energy consumption and insolation is usually understood (Nieuwenhout.. by this offer potential for understanding of the limited nature of energy. Biogas systems involve a lot of work to be done by the consumer himself. to some degree have the same problem as diesel gensets: if insolation (or diesel in the case of diesel gensets) is there. SHS. however. then no electricity can be used... if not. resulting in a comparatively very good assessment. Since grid extension to remote rural areas requires enormous investment. . et al. which cannot be run all day.. 1999). Many developing countries have experienced demonstrations of political power on the issue of energy. it is decided here to assess hybrid systems as preferential to grid extension with regard to supply equity. where electricity is simply not available during the day. applies to hybrid systems as well. However. but to a lesser degree since back-up with a diesel genset weakens the effect. but only during some hours in the evening.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 89 mismanagement of the electrification committee can result in unequal supply. which is obviously due to natural limitations and fluctuations of renewable energy resources.J. This is not the case with diesel gensets. From a financial perspective. the effect on capacity building of SHS is here evaluated to be lower. A. M. Indicator: Potential for Participation and Empowerment Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets Diesel gensets. N. Ounalli. The question whether or not to extend the conventional grid to certain rural areas is often a matter of political influence and preference as well. the potential for capacity building and increasing empowerment is higher for hybrid systems due to the fact that consumers in hybrid systems need to adapt to certain regulations. resulting in a comparatively poor performance of grid extension in this respect. Therefore. Still.. due to lower costs for biogas systems.

resulting in a comparatively very poor potential of SHS for economic development... However. since operation costs are high. the potential for economic development with diesel gensets is estimated to be lower than with hybrid systems. 1996). G. 2000). Due to the latter fact.. SHS services are limited. Indicator: Potential for Economic Development Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets From a technical point of view. SHS were found to be a tourist attraction in Nepal. The following aspects are mentioned (Campen.J. offering a high degree of flexibility for the villages with effectively no technical constraints to be made on the use of appliances (ESMAP. The effect is therefore evaluated to be significantly lower than for hybrid systems. et al. When discussing the economic development potential. Guidi.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 90 Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid The extension of the conventional grid is not likely to improve understanding about the limited availability of electricity. K.D. and energy supply is open to any kind of use with limitation just through pricing. Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies The potential for economic development of SHS has been matter of intensive research. diesel gensets are comparable to grid connection. L. Energy is not generated on site to improve people’s understanding.. M. 2000): lighting provides the possibility of extended commercial activities in the evening. a biofertiliser. An extension of an existing system can be done by erecting new tanks and biogas generators if enough substrate is available and financial feasibility is given.... 2000b). The commonly installed capacities are not sufficient to be used for productive purposes by installing electrical machines. have been reported (GTZ. resulting in the assessment of a comparatively very poor potential for participation and empowerment. Cosgrove-Davies. A. Schaeffer. D. Experiences show that rural population reverts to existing diesel gensets in the village for productive purposes or to the use of petroleum for further lighting (Preiser. average increases of yields between 6 to 10%. An important constraint on the potential for economic development is the fact that diesel gensets are less suitable to be operated the whole day. The potential for economic development of biogas systems depends on the size of the system and is therefore a matter of the pre-investment planning process. in some cases up to 20%. one should not ignore the fact of improved yields attributable to biogas systems. and the costs for expanding capacity are considerably high (Cabraal. As a result of the use of the by-product. The potential of SHS for economic development is therefore rated to be considerably lower than for hybrid systems. 2000). F. 1999b). but there was just little evidence found for the potential of SHS to generate income (Nieuwenhout. which was mentioned as potential for income generation... B. . et al. Best.

However. For this reason. 1996). the potential for economic development given by the conventional grid can be considered to be higher than for hybrid systems.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 91 However. A. which are likely to experience a substantial load-growth after electrification. is reduced by the fact that the application of SHS is likely to have negative influence on the possibility of kerosene dealers.by the operator or family members. it should not be overseen that for grid connection a minimum threshold level of electricity demand as well as certain load densities are essential in order to achieve economies of scale (Cabraal.D. as outlined above. M. 2000).. Anyhow.. Production. to sell their goods (Nieuwenhout. Indicator: Employment Effects Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets The use of diesel gensets for electrification is likely to result in lower employment effects as in the case of hybrid systems. already the construction phase is likely to encourage local manufacturing of building materials and accessories.. Schaeffer. et al. it is expected here that SHS are likely to result in lower employment effects than hybrid systems. and related maintenance work is carried out – if at all . service and maintenance of PV systems. As for all energy technologies. L. however. the impact of diesel gensets on overall employment is valued to be lower than with hybrid systems. 1999b). are likely to result in further employment effects as well. the application of diesel gensets is not very labour intensive. Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid For villages. F. Direct effects on employment related to operation and maintenance of diesel gensets can be evaluated to be low. since it is limited by the availability of the substrate. the effect of enhanced economic activities is likely to occur. Since building material for biogas plants is less sophisticated than for example for photovoltaic modules. employment effects by enhanced commercial activities during the evenings are likely to occur through SHS.. Generally. but not for electrification of machines for handicraft businesses.J.. especially of those activities taking place in evenings since this is the time when diesel-based mini-grids likely operate. Biogas systems provide potential for employment both in a long-term and short-term perspective. while hybrid systems depend on the unlimited resources wind and/or sun. 2003). Cosgrove-Davies. Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies As with diesel gensets. who are the major competitor of SHS for lighting. These activities are mostly carried out by family members of the operator and are often neglected (GTZ. In China it was experienced that every district applying biogas erected its own enterprises for the production of the individual parts of the biogas plant (GTZ. Since SHS systems just provide potential for lighting. sales. The main restriction given is quite often the ability of the customers to pay for the energy service. the extension of the conventional grid normally offers a maximum degree of flexibility to accommodate increasing demand without supply constraints. . This effect. the potential for economic development through biogas systems seems lower than with hybrid systems.

direct employment effects are likely not to occur. The extension of the conventional grid hardly gives rise to job opportunities related to production. 1999b). However. For the electrification of health clinics. and biogas slurry does not attract important causes for contagious diseases as flies and other insects (GTZ. and since household chores can be dealt with in the evenings due to lighting. diesel gensets generally can be applied as well. This positive effect can be reduced if kerosene lamps and candles are applied additionally in case lighting is not sufficient. Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies During operation of SHS. since skilled craftsmen are needed as permanent staff for the plant (GTZ. handicraft enterprises get the opportunity to use as many appliances as they need and can finance. Due to the fact that biogas systems are less sophisticated and that experiences proof immediate effects on employment due to their application. and both are evaluated to have a comparatively good effect on employment opportunities. 1999b). Indicator: Impacts on Health Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets For the use of diesel gensets the same argument concerning corrosive gases applies as outlined for the hybrid systems. SHS are usually not designed to support appliances like refrigerators or even X-ray equipment. Commercial activities using electricity can take place at any time of the day. the impact on improved human health is lower than with hybrid systems.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 92 When applying biogas systems on a community level. In comparison to hybrid systems. further employment effects for operation and maintenance of the plants can be expected. Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid The extension of the conventional grid is certainly the possibility offering the highest potential to create all such employment opportunities. which can be attributed to electrification. the fact that grid-based electrification offers higher potential for commercial activities than hybrid systems is lowered by the lack of job opportunities related to the energy provision itself. . Thus. Electrification of rural health clinics with SHS is unlikely. Besides the potential general impacts of electrification on human health. This leads to the estimation that no preference is made towards one of these scenarios. sales or maintenance of energy generating technologies. but do not produce electricity in the same reliable and constant manner as do hybrid systems. the likelihood to create job opportunities is here estimated to be higher than for hybrid systems. The fermentation process inside the tank significantly reduces the initial pathogenic capacity of the animal and human excrements. biogas systems have a special positive side effect by improving sanitary conditions for the plant owners or even the villages. For this reason the positive impact on human health is here considered to be lower than with hybrid systems. families have more time during the day to follow commercial activities as farming or animal husbandry. no corrosive gases are emitted. The positive effect on human health is thus higher than with hybrid systems.

Since flue gas cleaning in these power plants is usually not elaborated well. 2000) Second hand generators of private service providers 0. 2003) Bangladesh (Prokahausli Sangsad Ltd.45 – 0. Table C.10 – 1.. But after-effects as acid rain have severe impacts on human health. Thus.1: Initial Investment Costs for Diesel Gensets System Investment costs Capacity [kW] Location/Source Remarks 0. Wallace.e. some data could be collected and is presented in Table C.. B. high amounts of i.3 Economic Issues Indicator: Investment Costs per kW Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets Diesel gensets commonly require low initial investment. Moreover.. Shen.5 €/W 0. 1998) any (Kininger. J. F. however.29 €/W 5 (Wuppertal Institute.33 US$/W 50 Bulitai (Inner Mongolia) (GTZ.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 93 Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid The extension of the conventional grid to remote areas does not result in emissions from the electricity generating process in the village itself. CO or SO2 are emitted. the conventional grid is undoubtedly able to support electricity demand from rural health clinics. C. This does not take place close to the remote villages and therefore does not result in immediate health problems. 2002) .57 US$/W 0.20 US$/W 5 – 20 Diesel 2. 2002) 1. it is decided here not to give a preference to grid extension or hybrid systems with regard to the impacts on human health and both are considered to have a comparatively good potential to improve human health situation. This positive assessment.5 Inner Mongolia (Byrne. However. W.3 – 2. the main problems of diesel gensets are rather the high operation costs and the overall low lifetime. CO2.1... is worsened in countries where for example the share of coal for electricity generation is high.

M.. and costs vary strongly between different plant types and sizes. Therefore. 2000b). Problems associated with grid extension in rural areas are lower load densities in rural areas. but are generally comparatively high: depending on the size of the module and the frame conditions of the respective countries.48 Compared to the figures for hybrid systems. Observed price reductions are stated to be related to decreases in taxes and duties rather than to a decrease of hardware costs.16 €/W for a 20 kW diesel genset. Biogas plants usually require high investment as well. the initial investment is as well significantly higher than for diesel gensets. For the evaluation. lower capacity utilisation rates.. Therefore. the World Bank estimated in 1996 that prices for SHS are typically in the range of 7 – 26 US$/Wp (Cabraal.D. Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies The initial investment costs for SHS vary significantly from country to country. 1996). 1999b). 2000). The same study furthermore concluded that the prevailing view that costs for PV hardware are likely to decrease. including all installations but not including land.28 €/W in the case of a 5 kW kW   genset or 0.. resulting in the assessment of comparatively very poor performance with regard to investment costs.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 94 The cost analysis here revealed specific investment costs for diesel gensets of P   345.63 × exp − 0. 1999b). and often higher energy losses (Cabraal.. L.5 – 4 €/W as a reference point for specific investment costs. however. A recent Dutch study concluded that prices are typically in the range of 10 – 22 US$/Wp (Nieuwenhout. the initial investment for diesel gensets is therefore significantly lower. are estimated to be 50 – 75 US$ per m3 capacity in (GTZ. M. investment cost for biogas plants can be evaluated to be lower than for hybrid systems. 2003) gives 2. costs for extension of the conventional grid vary widely not only among. Cosgrove-Davies. F. with the main share of the costs needed for the digester. Cosgrove-Davies. the construction of power distribution lines account for 80 to 90% of the overall investment. could not be supported. Schaeffer.. if 48 P = Installed Capacity in kW . Due to their simplicity. A. An appraisal in (ATB. can be constructed with a high share of user’s involvement. which is not surprising with regard to the fact that PV/Diesel and Wind/Diesel systems apply diesel gensets as well. and can be up to 20. Schaeffer. the extension of the conventional grid is just economically feasible. For PV/Wind systems. 1996). Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid As in all of the above cases.J. Additional costs result from the application of the biogas generator.0394 ×  [€/kW].. Total costs of biogas plants. A reduction of up to 15% for labour wages can be achieved (GTZ. but also within countries.. et al.000 US$ per kilometre (ESMAP. According to the World Bank. resulting in a comparatively good assessment of investment costs. with 250 – 400 €/ m3 for the digester. biogas plants. meaning for example 0. A.. L. it can be stated that SHS can require significantly higher investments per Watt than hybrid systems.

number of consumers. Wallace. and is shown in Table C. consumption per individual consumer. however.. which is still lower than for hybrid systems.27 US$/kWh49 Diesel Genset (continuous service) (GTZ. and the efficiency of operation.80 US$/kWh 1.56 US$/kWh 0.60 per kWh (ESMAP. 2000b). M.2: Electricity Generating Costs for Diesel Gensets Diesel Genset (non-continuous service) 0. 2002). Schaeffer. 2001).2. J.3.76-0. J. should be performed on the basis of the same capacity installed and with the same electricity output. Table C. For the case of a remote village. 1998) Source A direct comparison of hybrid systems with diesel gensets. the experiences with diesel genset are presented in Table C. a considerable number of households is to be connected to the grid.800 per connection. and: Baur. Main determinant for the resulting connection cost is the average number of consumers per kilometre of line (ESMAP. L. Cosgrove-Davies. 1996. the connection cost to the grid is of major importance. From a perspective of the local consumer.. . W. hybrid systems can be evaluated to be less costly than grid extension.20 to US$ 0.. Shen. 2003) (Byrne.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 95 - the village is situated close to the next medium-voltage line of the conventional grid. and the distance between single households in the village is low (household density) (Cabraal..16-1. and a review of the World Bank in 1990 showed that these costs typically range from US$ 230-US$ 1.. Indicator: Electricity Generating Costs Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets The costs for electricity generation with mini-grids based on diesel gensets vary depending mainly on the following factors (ESMAP. This was done by Wuppertal Institute in (Wuppertal Institute.. 49 Levelized costs based on field analysis of battery’s lifetime. A. The World Bank estimates that costs for electricity generation with such systems typically range from US $0. The operational costs for diesel gensets are usually considerably high. with a median cost of about US$ 520 per connection. For the case of Inner Mongolia.. B. 2000). 2000b): size of the generator.

3 shows the high dependency on the fuel price. Experiences in Inner Mongolia reveal costs of 0.825 22.25 kWh of electricity on a sunny day. delivering around 0. PV/Wind household systems were experienced to be as low as 0. However. 2000). making the construction of mini-grids more attractive for villages with several households demanding electrification. in the evaluation preference is given to diesel gensets due the data of the World Bank. Generally. Here.D. J. However.450 23. 1999b).J. et al.59 €/kWh Comparing these figures for hybrid systems and diesel gensets.45 €/kWh 1.5 € 1.. For the application of biogas systems..Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 96 Table C.84 €/kWh 1. J. In any case. the aspect of costs for electricity generation cannot be seen independent from the fact that the production of bio-fertiliser and a correspondent observed increase of yields generates income (GTZ. Wallace. B. a general statement cannot be given for PV/Diesel and Wind/Diesel hybrid systems. For a common 50 Wp SHS... An appraisal of the Wuppertal Institute results in electricity generating costs of 0. in the case of hybrid household systems. these costs are high and make the application of SHS difficult for electrification of the poorest. The comparison in Table C. Nevertheless. diesel-based hybrid systems are likely not to be competitive. F.. W. costs do not decrease with more households applying SHS.20 . Shen. especially if 24-hours electrification is required.D.37 US$/kWh (Byrne. W.. Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies In case smaller loads are required. In countries where fuel is subsidised...3: Hybrid Systems at Different Diesel Prices Capacity: 5 kW Electricity Output: 2190 kWh/a Diesel Genset PV/Diesel. ratio 4:1 Investment costs in € 11. Shen. 1999a). thus lowering overall system costs.75 € 1. auxiliary energy sources as diesel gensets might be applied and generate additional costs (Nieuwenhout.67 –0. et al.J. 1998). B. Whether additional costs occur is matter of further use of appliances: since SHS have limited capacity and extension is comparatively expensive. these hybrid systems can compete. 1998). if no subsidies are provided by the respective countries. F. 2000). photovoltaic systems are likely to become the least cost option (Nieuwenhout. Experiences of GTZ show that biogas programmes are usually less costly than similar strategies accounting both for energy and the production or use of fertilisers and being based on fossil resources (GTZ.. However.51 €/kWh 1. ratio 4:1 Wind/Diesel.70 €/kWh Electricity Generating Costs at Diesel Price of 1. this situation might be considerably different as the above example of Inner Mongolia proves.740 Electricity Generating Costs at Diesel Price of 0. 1999). the electricity generating costs are approximately 1 US$/kWh (BMZ. data based on experiences could not be obtained.73 US$/kWh (Byrne.. the cost analysis of electricity generating costs reveals that SHS is likely to result in lower costs than hybrid village systems. Wallace.15 – 0.

J. Even though the technology itself has been known for years. et al. 2000a). as the example of Bangladesh proofs (Barkat. not every PV user owns the required auxiliary means as for example a ladder for cleaning the PV array. Indicator: Maintenance Requirements Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets The application of diesel gensets in remotely located mini-grids has been facing long-standing maintenance problems. but a single technician can serve maintenance needs for a large number of customers (Cabraal.. Cosgrove-Davies. L. operators often lack knowledge about these systems. just few households can carry out this maintenance by themselves over a long period of time (Cabraal. which is available on rural markets (Prokahausli Sangsad Ltd.. Still.. and they can even further decline with increasing consumption. from a perspective of maintenance the application of hybrid systems seems to be less favourable than diesel gensets. This. 2000b). 2000). as the World Bank describes. 1996). 2000). M. Nevertheless. Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid A general statement on electricity generating costs from the conventional grid cannot be given since costs vary strongly between different countries and grid characteristics. especially simple maintenance functions as cleaning of the PV arrays can be carried out individually.. Moreover. the additional requirement for the maintenance of the renewable energy generator and the other components as batteries and charge controllers give preference to the diesel genset. has not to be taken for granted since costs for biogas plants vary strongly. again. However. Experiences also show severe problems with poor quality contaminated fuel... grid extension offers the least costly option for electricity generation in cases where a medium voltage line serving a number of centres with larger loads passes the respective community nearby (ESMAP. Service centres are needed as well. 2001). In case of system breakdowns. 1996). M. Cosgrove-Davies.. If this is the case.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 97 Euro/kWh for biogas plants (Wuppertal Institute. spare parts are difficult to purchase due to the remoteness of the villages (ESMAP.. 2002). A. 2002). According to the World Bank. A. 1996). A problematic experience with the education of technicians was observed in Indonesia in applying SHS: technicians who were educated within the context of the project left the villages .. Cosgrove-Davies. A. F... then costs and tariffs can be relatively low. L. resulting in considerable effort for cleaning (Nieuwenhout. a rule of thumb from the Dominican Republic states that systems should not be installed more than 50 km away from the next service centre (Cabraal.D. Schaeffer. electricity generating costs are here valued to be significantly lower for grid extension than for hybrid systems. M.. Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies SHS can partly be maintained by users themselves. Schaeffer. L. Schaeffer.. A. As a conclusion it is decided here to value the performance of biogas systems with regard to electricity prices significantly better than for hybrid systems. A common occurrence is that a doubling of consumption per household over a time frame of ten years leads in many places to a decline of costs per kWh of about 40% (ESMAP. et al. Although the back-up diesel generator in hybrid systems is likely to be strained less than in the case of a diesel genset-based mini-grid. Technicians are needed..

50 51 Personal Comment given by Jörg Baur. the cause of problems related to the micro-organisms inside the tank cannot be identified by users themselves. If once the production of biogas is reduced. . 2000). GTZ. experts from GTZ have experienced maintenance as a major issue with biogas plants. Biogas systems require regular attendance and maintenance. Because in the case of decentralised electrification with hybrid systems. This dependency is of course much higher than for hybrid systems. Assuming that markets for renewable energy technologies are likely to develop. Indicator: Degree of Import Dependence and Regional Self-Supply Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets Diesel gensets can usually be only produced in larger countries as China. Personal Comment given by Jörg Baur. GTZ. etc. resulting in comparatively very poor performance of biogas plants with regard to maintenance. which can be a problem especially in tropic countries where climate dictates agricultural activities. 2003. It is therefore likely that due to the remoteness of the here considered villages. maintenance will be carried out slowly. the comparative assessment results in a preference for grid extension. very often it is just old motors from cars. where fuel consumption is reduced to roughly 20% of the figures for diesel-based mini-grids. 2003. but in case it is forgotten.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 98 and searched for better paid jobs in cities (Preiser. K. in Eschborn/Germany on August 14th. the result of decreasing gas production is observed with significant time lag. the relatively higher complexity of hybrid systems compared to SHS makes the application of SHS advantageous from the point of view of maintenance. especially in African countries.. which are taken for electrification. Thus. local technicians need to be trained and maintenance centres need to be erected. but requires help from experts even in developed countries. but taking into account the current non-existence. Diesel gensets are also heavily dependent on the import of fuel. Therefore. et al. Regular charging with substrate is essential. resulting in longer periods of shortages.50 For this reason. Moreover. a return to normal levels takes up to 10 days (GTZ. in Eschborn/Germany on August 14th. 1999a). Maintenance usually cannot be carried out by the customers themselves or local technicians. which usually have a pool of experts or technicians for this purpose. Although the problem of batteries and charge controllers applies to SHS as well. making the performance of diesel gensets comparatively poor with regard to this indicator. the result is then a slight preference for hybrid systems. the conventional grid is assessed to perform comparatively good with regard to maintenance. Maintenance of the conventional grid is to be carried out by a central public or private utility.51 and therefore hybrid systems are evaluated to be less problematic from a point of view of maintenance. This lead to a lack of maintenance and undermined the whole effort for setting up a maintenance structure. India. Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid System breakdowns and shortages in power supply are likely to occur due to often unreliable conventional grids in developing countries..

. the World Bank in 1996 stated high transaction costs in purchase and servicing for SHS due to limited market structures (Cabraal. L. M. the degree of import dependency is difficult to assess for developing countries in general. The degree of import independence and regional self-supply is therefore rated to be significantly higher with biogas systems compared to hybrid systems.. the result of this assessment is the same due to the fact that markets both for PV and for wind generators need to be developed before local production becomes reasonable. the lifetime of a conventional diesel genset is about 4 years and can become as low as 1. Although diesel gensets offer a proven and reliable technology for rural electrification. A. resulting in a comparatively good performance of SHS with regard to this indicator. 1996). This is due to the fact that the degree of regional self-supply is higher for decentralised electrification solutions than with the conventional grid. For the case of PV/Wind systems.. Biogas systems provide a comparatively high potential for independence in electricity generation. Cosgrove-Davies. ingredients for the operation of the plants are locally available. 2000). However. diesel gensets provide limited energy supply .. the experience shows that due to the uncomplex nature of the systems. The degree of import independence is here evaluated to be lower than for hybrid systems. 1999a). this is not taken in consideration. This effect was evaluated to be in the range of 30-35% by Indian experts (GTZ. generating a high share of its electricity with hydropower.. Schaeffer.5 years (Prokahausli Sangsad Ltd... Thus. Therefore preference is given to SHS with regard to import dependency since hybrid systems applying diesel gensets normally still rely on diesel imports. Countries as Brazil. A. Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid On a country level. Furthermore. 1996). obviously are less dependent on energy import than the major part of the developing countries. The additional effect of the production of bio-fertiliser can even lower the need for import of mineral fertilisers. local production of needed materials and components and respective markets can rather easily be developed. Indicator: Supply Security Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets Electricity provision with diesel-based mini-grids is limited. Firstly. which are dependent on fuel imports to a large extent. since it was experienced and is assumed here that markets for PV are likely to develop.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 99 Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies SHS offer to a large extent the possibility of independence from the import of fossil resources as oil or coal. the comparative assessment reveals a poor performance of grid extension with regard to this indicator. L. M. the gensets usually operate 4-12 hours in the evenings (Cabraal. Cosgrove-Davies. the degree of supply security is here estimated to be lower than with hybrid due to the following aspects: as already described. For the application of SHS in developing countries. Schaeffer. resulting in a comparatively very good assessment of biogas plants with regard to this indicator.

Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 100 - in case of breakdowns.J.. a recent survey estimates that roughly three-quarters of the SHS systems operate relatively well (Nieuwenhout. no electricity can be generated at all For the comparative assessment here. being average in the comparative assessment here. as was mentioned in the context of maintenance requirements already. F. However. Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies Security supply with SHS is certainly to be estimated as lower than with hybrid systems. et al. 2000). However. For the comparative assessment here. it has to be considered that markets and maintenance structures for renewable energy have not yet emerged in most developing countries. 2000). Information concerning reliability of SHS is very limited and does not give a consistent picture. F. 1999a). On the other hand. This certainly reduces the otherwise significant advantage of hybrid systems compared to grid extension concerning supply security and results in an evaluation of just better performance. While some projects report all SHS systems as being operative.J. no alternative energy source is available in case of shortages of fuel. However. in many regions in developing countries the quality of grid supply is rather low. The reason for this is on the one hand non-continuous energy provision. 2000b). being average in the comparative assessment here. in cases of system breakdowns no back-up with other energy sources can stabilise electricity generation if no diesel genset is available. diesel gensets are valued as average with regard to supply security. and with system breakdowns without electricity supply during longer periods of unfavourable weather conditions. On the other hand. the problem of biogas plants. implying that in case of breakdowns. limiting electricity provision to just several hours during the day. 2000b). lies in the fact that once the system is down.. It is therefore assessed that biogas systems offer a lower degree of security on energy supply.. reductions and fluctuations in voltage can become so severe that the use of appliances is connected with the risk of damages for the customer (ESMAP.. The same study also reveals that larger SHS systems are working more reliable since deep discharge of batteries occurs less frequently in larger systems (Nieuwenhout. . others report 100% failures.D. with breakdowns in generating equipment or distribution systems and leading to intermittent availability of electricity (ESMAP. Moreover. maintenance or repair is likely to take a long time. the reactivation can take several days and needs the involvement of experts in case problems with the tank occur. et al. SHS are seen as average with regard to supply security. It can generally be stated that biogas plants nowadays are a mature technology (Biogas.D. For biogas plants no information on the reliability of the systems could be obtained. Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid From the extension of the conventional grid one can usually expect a reliable full-time coverage of electricity demand.

500Ah battery. 4. 2003. Körner during a telephone interview on August 18th.007 × Diesel Genset: Costs = 345. Geis.000 € Cabinet.0394 ×   Own calculation based on available cost data Investment   P   in [€/kW] kW  Schüco 54 Battery bank: 333 €/kWh for a 12V. Support: 2. . 2003. Internal Wiring: 6. Table D. 57 Personal Comment given by Jörg Baur. Maintenance and Repair: Annually 4% of total investment Cost data SMA KfW55 Schueco56 Own estimation GTZ57 Own assumption For PV and Wind: (Sauer.63 × exp − 0. 2003. Körner during a telephone interview on August 18th. during a telephonme interview on August. H. 55 Personal Recommendation given by Mr. GTZ. Bopp. others: own assumption Interest Rate: 6% Miscellaneous Lifetime system components: PV modules 20 years. D.5kW: 5. the following basic assumptions were made.. 56 Personal Comment given by Mr. Cables. Inverter and Charge Controller 10 years 52 Personal Comment given by Mr. Wind generator 12 years.7 × exp − 0.Annex D: Cost Analysis 101 Annex D: Cost Analysis For the cost analysis. Tower) For Plants ≤ 10kW: Costs = 4309 × exp − 0.1068 × Costs/Details Source Schüco52   P  53  in [€/kW] kW  P   in [€/kW] kW  For Plants ≥ 10 kW: Costs = 2016. the batteries are designed for a storage capacity of 2 days Inverter and Charge Controller “Sunny Island”. in Eschborn/Germany.000 € Planning. former KfW staff member.. Battery 5 years. on August 14th. 54 Personal Comment given by Mr..000 € Local grid. Assembly and Commissioning: 15% of total investment Transport: 1.1 Main Assumptions for the Cost Analysis Type of Costs PV Modules 400 €/kWp Wind Power Plants (incl. Diesel Genset 10 years.000 € Operating Costs Manpower. 2003. 2003). Körner during a telephone interview on August 18th. Puls. 2003. G. 22nd. 53 P = Installed capacity in kW.

94 297.00 9.599.373.38 Source (Diesel.0 10.6 0.08 1.420. 2003) Remarks Source INCLIN 600 AC 752 turbo MAJA 1000 INCLIN 1500 neo GRT 2000 INCLIN 3000 neo INCLIN 6000 neo Inventus 6 GRT 8000 AIRMAXX-10 Novatec ML10Eco Vergnet GEV10/20 Fuhrländer FL30 Vergnet GEV15/60 Lagerwej LW18 6.490.60 5.68 4.2 Investment Costs for Small-Scale Wind Power Plants Name Capacity Total Investment Specific Investment Costs [€] Costs [€/kW] [kW] 0.509.117.0 17.0 20.00 1.97 3.5 2.40 17.310.199. 2003. 1st.00 60.90 862.75 1.67 5.68 2.8 1.0 30.68 1.0 8.0 6.742. 59 Personal Comment given by Mr.970.802.17 1.499.751.999.998.20 3.08 19.981.51 1.24 10. 2003) Including 11 m tower Bundesverband 58 Windenergie Including 18m tower Including 27m tower Including 30m tower Including 40m tower Bundesverband 59 Windenergie Table D.80 6.00 89.165.970. Twele during a telephone interview on September.80 29.40 2.0 80. .9 Total Investment Costs [€] 629.44 78.954. Twele during a telephone interview on September.069.0 3. 2003. The details are shown in the following tables.80 6. 1st.17 (Heyde.0 1.00 2.0 10.680.980.471.40 3.0 3.294.8 2. 2003)60 58 Personal Comment given by Mr.762. Table D.39 Specific Investment Costs [€/kW] 349.324.48 3.60 Including 19 m tower Inventus Windpower GmbH Including 11 m tower (Heyde.Annex D: Cost Analysis 102 The investment costs for wind power plants and diesel gensets are based on the costs for different plants from various manufacturers.022.84 1.3 Investment Costs for Diesel Gensets Diesel Generator Mitsubishi MGE-1800 ROU Mitsubishi MGE-2900 ROU Capacity [kW] 1.0 60.600.40 2.381.725.

7 × exp − 0.000 0 0 5 10 15 Installed Capacity [kW] Specific Investm ent for Plants =>10kW Specific Investment [€/kW] 2.Annex D: Cost Analysis 103 Diesel Generator Yamaha EF4000DE Yamaha YG4000D Yamaha EF5200DE Yamaha EF6600DE Yamaha EF12000DE Capacity [kW] 4 4 5.431.000 2.00 0 5 10 15 P   Costs = 2016.00 300.91 1.500 1.007 ×  in [€/kW] kW   Installed Capacity [kW] P  Costs = 345.09 224.1068 ×  in [€/kW] kW   Specific Investm ent for Diesel Gensets Specific Investment [€/kW] 400. Specific Investm ent for Plants <=10kW Specific Investment [€kW] 6.90114 € (September 8th.00 0.00 100.000 5.51 1.20 2.00 200.63 × exp − 0. Calculated Exchange Rate: 1 US$ = 0.657.500 2.000 3.242. 2003)61 The decline in specific investment cost per kW is reflected in the following graphs. 2003).000 1.37 251.1 Specific Investment for Wind Power Plants and Diesel Gensets 60 61 Calculated Exchange Rate: 1 US$ = 0.000 4. .46 Source (Diesel.000 500 0 0 50 100 Installed Capacity [kW] P   Costs = 4309 × exp − 0.0394 × kW    in [€/kW]  Figure D.90114 € (September 8th.116. 2003).51 Specific Investment Costs [€/kW] 310.2 6.67 279.693.67 1.6 12 Total Investment Costs [€] 1.000 1.13 275.

400 9. the analysis of investment and electricity generating costs was performed.000 6. PV/Diesel 9.7163 for bigger plants were obtained.000 7.000 0 20 40 60 80 Wind/Diesel Investment Costs [€/kW] Investment Costs [€/kW] Installed Capacity [kW] Installed Capacity [kW] P  P    Costs = 8880.000 10.200 8.000 12.000 0 50 100 150 11.000 9.000 6. still being relatively poor.0009 ×  in [€/kW]  in [€/kW] Costs = 9564.1 × exp − 0.000 6.000 8.6659 in the case of smaller plants and R2 = 0.5 × exp − 0. With this data.0034 × kW  kW    PV/Wind at 1 Day Battery 10.1 Investment Costs The analysis investment costs revealed the following results.0027 ×  in [€/kW] kW  kW    Figure D. this is not the case for wind power plants.800 8.600 8. D.Annex D: Cost Analysis 104 While the regression is rather fair in the case of diesel gensets with a regression coefficient of R2 = 0.8422.000 0 20 40 60 80 Installed Capacity [kW] PV/Wind at 2 Days Battery 14.000 9.000 10.000 8. it was distinguished between plants of smaller capacity ≤ 10 kW and plants of higher capacity ≥ 10 kW in order to improve the accuracy of regression. Here.000 0 20 40 60 80 Installed Capacity [kW] Investment Costs [€/kW] P  P    Costs = 8241.0037 ×  in [€/kW] Costs = 11061 × exp − 0.200 9. Regression coefficients of R2 = 0.000 8.7 × exp − 0.2 Specific Investment for Hybrid Systems of Different Capacities For the different village sizes as presented in Annex A.400 8. this leads to the following range of investment costs.000 8. Investment Costs [€/kW] .000 7.

18 Investment Costs at 300 Households [€/W] 8.23 8.20 10.86 D. repair and diesel fuel.67 6. By adding the annuities of operation costs for manpower.Annex D: Cost Analysis 105 Table D.4 Range of Investment Costs for Hybrid Systems System PV/Diesel Systems Wind/Diesel Systems PV/Wind Systems at 2 days battery capacity PV/Wind Systems at 1 day battery capacity Investment Costs at 30 Households [€/W] 9. maintenance. the following formula was used to calculate the annuity of the investment costs of single components: a = C0 × (1 + i )n − 1 i × (1 + i ) n With a i = Annuity = Interest Rate = 6% C0 = Capital Value n = Component Lifetime The total annuity of investment is then the sum of the single annuities. the total annual costs can be calculated.2 Electricity Generating Costs The electricity generating costs per kWh were calculated with the help of the annuity method. For the different systems and varying diesel fuel prices. With the help of the underlying assumptions as presented on page 101. Division of the annual costs by the annual electricity production leads to the specific electricity generating costs per kWh.05 9.44 12. the following results were obtained: .00 9.

44 1.44 1.46 1.46 1.49 1.45 1.2 1.48 1.50 1.72 1.47 1.8 1.54 1.8 1.65 1 1.65 1.53 1.48 1.53 1.47 1.42 1.50 1.71 1.48 1.48 1.45 1.43 0.5 1.44 1.44 1.43 1.49 1.59 0.46 1.45 1.53 1.48 1.45 1.51 1.47 1.48 1.46 1.45 0.50 1.45 1.48 1.53 1.47 1.55 1.48 1.50 1.44 1.70 1.63 0.47 1.48 1.50 1.52 1.52 1.51 1.50 1.48 Table D.49 1.52 1.68 1.47 1.47 1.56 1.49 1.44 1.45 1.53 1.45 1.49 1.53 1.56 1.46 1.1 1.65 .45 1.51 1.47 1.49 1.66 1.45 1.53 1.73 1.48 1.49 1.47 1.50 1.48 1.48 1.50 1.6 1.46 1.69 1.48 1.4 1.43 1.47 1.48 1.45 1.51 1.49 1.1 1.48 1.51 1.49 1.52 1.3 1.52 1.49 1.50 1.61 0.49 1.48 1.43 1.48 1.51 1.47 1.44 1.44 1.69 1.2 1.68 1.56 1.50 1.46 1.47 1.50 1.43 1.49 1.50 1.45 1.49 1.44 1.49 1.52 1.45 0.53 1.47 1.Annex D: Cost Analysis 106 Table D.51 1.49 1.43 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.47 1.45 1.46 1.46 1.55 1.48 1.48 1.54 1.53 1.49 1.55 1.47 1.61 0.50 1.7 1.46 1.46 1.53 1.45 1.68 1.51 1.52 1.50 1.5 Electricity Generating Costs of PV/Diesel Systems [€/kWh] Number of Households 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 175 200 225 250 275 300 Diesel Fuel Price [€/l] 0.44 0.52 1.43 1.70 1.46 1.43 0.48 1.47 1.47 1.48 1.46 1.4 1.47 1.49 1.47 1.48 1.46 1.45 1.51 1.50 1.47 1.44 1.49 1.67 1.45 1.45 1.45 1.54 1.45 1.49 1.45 1.46 1.48 1.47 1.47 1.45 1.47 1.44 1.51 1.52 1.6 Electricity Generating Costs of Wind/Diesel Systems [€/kWh] Number of Households 30 35 40 Diesel Fuel Price [€/l] 0.50 1.46 1.6 1.47 1.69 1.7 1.64 0.44 1.45 1.47 1.49 1.50 1.51 1.43 1.44 1.48 1.43 1.42 1.47 1.48 1.43 1.51 1.51 1.48 1.46 1.43 1.55 1.3 1.50 1.52 1.46 1.52 1.48 1.45 1.54 1.64 1.50 1.53 1.50 1.52 1.47 1.45 1.47 1.52 1.49 1.46 1.52 1.62 0.47 1.46 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.48 1.42 0.47 0.63 0.51 1.58 1.44 1.46 1.49 1.54 1.51 1.44 1.50 1.47 1.42 1.51 1.48 1.46 1.49 1.46 1.49 1.9 1.45 1.54 1.46 1.48 1.42 1.71 1.49 1.9 1.47 1 1.47 1.47 1.44 1.46 0.50 1.46 1.47 1.73 1.49 1.43 1.45 1.5 1.67 1.43 1.49 1.55 1.48 1.57 1.43 1.46 1.70 1.60 0.48 1.50 1.46 1.47 1.44 1.44 1.66 1.49 1.48 1.53 1.47 1.

44 1.47 1.43 1.51 1.53 1.41 1.47 1.53 1.56 1.40 0.62 1.59 1.59 1.50 1.49 1.45 1.51 1.44 0.48 1.58 1.44 1.49 1.51 1.49 1.3 1.53 1.43 0.46 1.49 1.54 1.48 1.42 1.48 1.44 1.47 1.50 1.54 1.50 1.41 1.49 1.52 1.48 1.48 1.54 1.53 1.52 1. .48 1.50 1.48 1.59 1.61 1.50 1.46 1.49 1.50 1.51 1.53 1.49 1.47 1.52 1.51 1.40 0.51 1.55 1.61 1.52 1.51 1.9 1.53 1.63 1.50 1.46 1.57 1.48 1.40 1.55 1.42 0.53 1.43 1.Annex D: Cost Analysis 107 Number of Households 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 175 200 225 250 275 300 Diesel Fuel Price [€/l] 0.51 1.46 1.46 1.48 1.53 1.42 1.45 1.43 1.56 1.59 1.47 1.50 1.52 1.50 1.51 1.47 1.44 1.55 1.51 1.48 1.49 1.54 1.2 1.42 1.43 1.53 1.43 1.46 1.48 1.52 1.51 1.46 1.47 1.44 1.49 1.53 1.50 1.55 1.51 1.47 1.44 1.52 1.44 1.46 1.55 1.47 1.52 1.48 1.57 1.45 1.47 1.45 1.53 1.49 1.44 1.51 1.49 1.1 1.49 1.46 1.46 1.47 1.46 1.55 1.54 1.53 1.46 1.52 1.57 1.48 1.8 1.48 1.54 1.48 1.49 1.51 1.44 1.52 1.53 1.48 1.52 1.56 1.50 1.45 1.60 1.44 0.45 1.50 1.48 1.46 1.46 1.50 1.55 1.44 1.4 1.55 1.46 1.47 1.45 1.47 1.42 0.46 These figures can be illustrated with the graphs on the following page.47 1.53 1.6 1.45 1.54 1.48 1.47 1.53 1.46 1.58 1.48 1.50 1.60 1.51 1.54 1.57 1.49 1.43 1.41 0.43 1.50 1.51 1.52 1.43 1.50 1.45 1.53 1.49 1.61 1.41 1.52 1.49 1.45 1.7 1.56 1.44 1.51 1.45 1.48 1.51 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.47 1.51 1.45 1.50 1.50 1.48 1.41 1.52 1.55 1.56 1.49 1.56 1.47 1.51 1.48 1.45 1.50 1.5 1.50 1.46 1.50 1.47 1.45 1.49 1.52 1.51 1.54 1.58 1.46 1.42 1.48 1.45 1 1.56 1.42 1.44 1.

meanwhile. which they are likely not to fall below. 1999). This is due to the fact that the decline in investment costs of diesel gensets at certain installed capacities does not trade off the high investment for the PV modules anymore.50-1.60 1.70 1.1 300 1 Diesel Price [€/l] 1.70-1. This observation is supported by the investigations of the Fraunhofer Institute in (Sauer.50 Figure D.30 1.50-1. where costs decline over the whole area of investigation due to the decrease in specific investment costs for wind power plants with higher capacities.60 1.1 300 1 Diesel Costs [€/l] 1.45-1. D.55 1.40 1.4 Illustration of Electricity Generating Costs for Wind/Diesel The cost analysis of hybrid systems here reveals that electricity generating costs are decreasing with higher loads and lower diesel fuel prices.60 Electricity Costs [€/kWh] 1. where it is calculated that electricity generating costs are .80 1.40-1.20 30 45 60 110 140 170 225 Num ber of Households 75 90 0. seem to reach a threshold value at all diesel fuel prices. PV/Diesel systems.35 1.50 1.60 1.70 1.50 1. et al.55-1.60-1.Annex D: Cost Analysis 1. The buckling in the curve progression is a result of the different equations used for small and big wind generators. This effect is stronger in the case of Wind/Diesel systems.45 108 Figure D..45 1.50 1.55 1.80 Electricity Costs [€/kWh] 1.40 1.3 Illustration of Electricity Generating Costs for PV/Diesel 1..40-1.30 30 45 60 110 140 170 225 Num ber of Households 75 90 0.

58 1.09 1.07 1.18 1.59 1.01 1.22 1.04 1.10 1.Annex D: Cost Analysis 109 likely not to become lower than 1.56 1.54 1.04 1.58 1.62 1.00 1.53 1.56 1.56 1.54 1.98 0.12 1.05 1.69 1.55 1.99 0.52 1 Day 1.57 1.02 1.7 Electricity Generating Costs PV/Wind Number of Households 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 175 200 225 250 275 300 PV/Wind Systems with Battery Capacity for 2 Days 1.01 1.63 1.54 1.98 .15 1.76 1.03 1.03 1. the following results were obtained with regard to electricity generating costs per kWh: Table D.55 1.03 1.98 0.64 1. For PV/Wind systems.56 1.01 1.52 1.54 1.03 Euro/kWh for systems with lower annual consumption of 15.03 1.00 1.58 1.58 1.99 0.000 kWh and at an interest rate of 6%.66 1.73 1.57 1.53 1.01 1.02 1.00 0.

5 Euro/h Electricity generating costs of 0.0 kWh 6. 1999) PV/Diesel hybrid system for Mexico City.000 full load hours for wind generators.30 Euro/l 6% 350 Euro/d .6 kWh 1. D.3 Electricity Generating Costs from Different Sources Institut für Solare Energieversorgungstechnik (ISET) in (Kininger. F. D.6 kW 96.Annex D: Cost Analysis 110 The analysis of PV/Wind systems shows the high dependency of electricity generating costs from the size of the battery bank. Result 50 kWh/d 9.9 kWp 6. 11. transport and construction for Kassel/Germany.0 % 37. 1.76 Euro kWh.. These costs increase for remote regions. et al. Result o Electricity generating costs of 1.752 kWh/m2/a 1.00 Euro/l 5.. 1. the circumstances are just moderately suited for fully renewable coverage of electricity demand. For the chosen location of Trapani/Italy with annual global radiation of 1. Assumptions o Electricity Consumption: o Solar Coverage Rate: o Diesel Fuel Price: o Interest Rate: o Labour Costs: 2..34 Euro/kWh.664 kWh/m2/a and under the assumption of 2. Assumptions o Electricity Consumption: o Capacity PV Modules: o Capacity Diesel Genset: o Battery Bank: o Inverter: o Energy Management System applied o Global radiation in Sevilla/Spain: o Diesel Costs: o Interest rate: o Labour Costs: 2. Fraunhofer Institut für Solare Energiesysteme ISE in (Sauer.000 kWh/a 77% 0. 2002) PV/Diesel hybrid system for Sevilla/Spain with costs on planning.

Costs are related to the size of the system.8 Investment and Operating Costs of Different Household Systems.82 US$/l 12% Levelised costs based on field analysis of battery’s lifetime. PV/Wind hybrid systems (300 W Wind. Results Table D. in (GTZ.9 Electricity Generating Costs of Hybrid Systems in Inner Mongolia PV/Diesel Village System 1. Shen.837 6.75 US$/kWh PV/Wind Household System 0. 1. China.. Gesellschaft für technische Zusammenarbeit GTZ. 2003) Application of PV/Diesel and Wind/Diesel hybrid systems for village electrification. W. B. Result 1. J. Wallace.150 kWh/m2/a 150 W/m2 300 W 100 W 0.37 US$/kWh .72 US$/kWh.087 11. Electricity Generating Costs: 0.43 US$/kWh – 0. with large hybrid systems being less expensive.Annex D: Cost Analysis 111 National Renewable Energy Laboratory(NREL)/University of Delaware in (Byrne.85 US$/kWh Wind/Diesel Village System 0. 1998) PV/Wind Household hybrid systems for Inner Mongolia.. Inner Mongolia System specification PV-Battery-Inverter System (100 W) Wind-Battery-Inverter System (300 W) Wind-PV-Battery-Inverter System (300 + 100 W) Investment costs [RMB] 6. Assumptions o Global radiation: o Wind Energy Density: o Capacity Wind: o Capacity PV: o Diesel Fuel Price: o Interest Rate: 2. 100 W PV) for household electrification.720 Operating costs/year [RMB/a] 100 119 119 Table D..

84 €/kWh 1.59 €/kWh . ratio 80:20 Wind/Diesel.75 € 1.740 Electricity Generating Costs at Diesel Price of 0.70 €/kWh Electricity Generating Costs at Diesel Price of 1.10 5 kW Hybrid Systems at Different Diesel Prices Capacity: 5 kW Electricity Output: 2.Annex D: Cost Analysis 112 Wuppertal Institute in (Wuppertal Institute.45 €/kWh 1.51 €/kWh 1. ratio 80:20 Investment costs in € 11. 2002) Table D.5 € 1.190 kWh/a Diesel Genset PV/Diesel.825 22.450 23.

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