Integrated Analysis of Hybrid Systems for Rural Electrification in Developing Countries

Timur Gül

Supervisor and Examiner Assoc. Professor Jan-Erik Gustafsson Division of Land and Water and Water Resources Engineering Royal Institute of Technology

Supervisor in Germany Dr. Dirk Aßmann Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment, Energy

Reviewer Michael Bartlett Department of Energy Processes Royal Institute of Technology Stockholm 2004

TRITA-LWR Master Thesis ISSN 1651-064X LWR-EX-04-26

Abstract

I

Abstract
Around 2 billion people world-wide do not have access to electricity services, of which the main share in rural areas in developing countries. Due to the fact that rural electricity supply has been regarded as essential for economic development during the Earth Summit on Sustainable Development in 2002, it is nowadays a main focus in international development cooperation. Renewable energy resources are a favourable alternative for rural energy supply. In order to handle their fluctuating nature, however, hybrid systems can be applied. These systems use different energy generators in combination, by this maintaining a stable energy supply in times of shortages of one the energy resources. Main hope attributed to these systems is their good potential for economic development. This paper discusses the application of hybrid systems for rural electrification in developing countries by integrating ecological, socio-economic and economic aspects. It is concluded that hybrid systems are suitable to achieve both ecological and socio-economic objectives, since hybrid systems are an environmental sound technology with high quality electricity supply, by this offering a good potential for economic development. However, it is recommended to apply hybrid systems only in areas with economic development already taking place in order to fully exploit the possibilities of the system. Moreover, key success factors for the application of hybrid systems are discussed. It is found that from a technical point of view, appropriate maintenance structures are the main aspect to be considered, requiring the establishment of maintenance centres. It is therefore recommendable to apply hybrid systems in areas with a significant number of villages, which are to be electrified with these systems, in order to improve financial sustainability of these maintenance centres. The appropriate distribution model is seen as being important as well; it is thought that the sale of hybrid systems via credit, leasing or cash is the most likely approach. In order to do so, however, financial support and capacity building of local dealers is inalienable.

Table of Contents

II

Table of Contents
Abstract ........................................................................................................................I Table of Contents....................................................................................................... II List of Figures ........................................................................................................... IV List of Tables.............................................................................................................. V Acronyms .................................................................................................................. VI 1 1.1 1.2 2 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1 Objective ........................................................................................................... 2 Methodology...................................................................................................... 2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply ........................................................... 4

2.1 Decentralised Electrification .............................................................................. 4 2.1.1 Diesel Generating Sets ....................................................................................... 4 2.1.2 Renewable Energy Technologies ....................................................................... 5 2.2 2.2.1 2.2.2 2.2.3 2.2.4 2.3 3 Hybrid System Technology................................................................................ 6 Relevance .......................................................................................................... 6 Hybrid Systems in Developing Countries........................................................... 7 Other Hybrid Systems........................................................................................ 9 Technical Aspects ............................................................................................ 11 Grid-based Electrification ................................................................................ 14 Analysis of Impacts ........................................................................................ 16

3.1 Scope of the Analysis....................................................................................... 16 3.1.1 Scenario Definitions......................................................................................... 16 3.1.2 Modelling Assumptions ................................................................................... 18 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4.1 3.4.2 3.4.3 The Concept of Indicators of Sustainability...................................................... 18 Developing an Indicator Set for Energy Technologies...................................... 19 Analysis of Sustainability ................................................................................ 21 Ecological Dimension ...................................................................................... 21 Socio-Economic Dimension............................................................................. 27 Economic Dimension....................................................................................... 33

3.5 Results and Discussion..................................................................................... 42 3.5.1 Results ............................................................................................................. 42 3.5.2 Discussion ....................................................................................................... 45

...................................................................................................2 Project Description .......1 Ecology.............................. 57 Capacity Building ......................................................................................................................................... 87 C.......2 Electricity Generating Costs..............................................................................................................1 5....................2 Modelling Results .........1............................................... 110 Terms of Reference ... 93 Annex D: Cost Analysis ......1 Hybrid Systems in Indonesia........... 75 B..............................................2 5..3 Electricity Generating Costs from Different Sources ................................... 53 Financing .......................................................... 68 A................. 47 4................................1 Scenario Definitions ............................................................ 60 Technical Aspects ....................... 68 A........................................................................................................ 86 C..3 5.............Table of Contents III 4 Project Examples ...................................................................... 49 Project Description ............................................................... 79 Annex C: Analysis of Impacts ........................................................................................................... 64 Summary and Conclusions ..........................2.. 105 D................................................................................ 47 4............................................................................................................................. 86 C.................. 47 4........................................................................................3 Economic Issues...... 49 Aspects of System Dissemination ... 53 Organisation .....................................................................................................2 Socio-Economic Issues.......................... 75 B..................................................................6 6 Hybrid Systems in Inner Mongolia.... 70 Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations .................................................................................5 5........1 4..............................1............. 66 Annex A: Electricity Demand and System Design.....................................................................................1 Calculation of Electricity Demand.............................................................. 113 ...............................3 5 5..................................................... 101 D........................2................. 52 Key success factors.....................2 System Design ............................ 47 4..........................................................................................................................................................2 4...............................................................2 4....................................................... 62 Assessment of Electricity Demand and Potential for Renewable Energies.......................4 5...................1 Investment Costs........ 63 Political Factors ............ 49 Baseline .............2........................................................................1 Baseline ...................................................... 104 D.........................................................

..................................................................... 85 Figure B...........................................................................9 Comparative Assessment of Supply Equity .......................1 GEMIS Results: Greenhouse Gas Emissions ........................................1 Principle Circuit of Hybrid Systems ..2 Specific Investment for Hybrid Systems of Different Capacities........................ 29 Figure 3..........................12 Comparative Assessment of Employment Effects....................21 Results Ecology Assessment ..........................3 GEMIS Results: Air Pollutants ............... 28 Figure 3............. 32 Figure 3..15 Electricity Generating Costs in Comparison ......................16 Comparative Assessment of Electricity Generating Costs... 30 Figure 3..........................................19 Comparative Assessment of Supply Security..................................................... 31 Figure 3.... 60 Figure B.... 41 Figure 3. 83 Figure B..........................6 Cumulative Energy Demand According to Resources. 25 Figure 3....................................... 25 Figure 3...4 Comparative Assessment of Air Pollutants Emissions ........................................................... 85 Figure D..............................................4 Illustration of Electricity Generating Costs for Wind/Diesel ......................... 23 Figure 3.........10 Comparative Assessment of Participation and Empowerment...2 GEMIS Results: Methane Emissions ............ 42 Figure 3.......................22 Results Socio-Economic Assessment .........2 Comparative Assessment of GHG Emissions ........................ 108 .......... 24 Figure 3............................ 38 Figure 3............. 104 Figure D...................... 84 Figure B.......................... 37 Figure 3...1 Specific Investment for Wind Power Plants and Diesel Gensets ....... 108 Figure D........... 23 Figure 3. 43 Figure 3...................17 Comparative Assessment of Maintenance Requirements ........................ 39 Figure 3...............................13 Comparative Assessment of Impacts on Health ....... 44 Figure 5..............................5 GEMIS Results: Cumulative Energy Demand of Primary Energy . 81 Figure B...........................3 GEMIS Results: Emissions of Air Pollutants..1 GEMIS Results: GHG Emissions ...........................14 Comparative Assessment of Investment Costs........3 Illustration of Electricity Generating Costs for PV/Diesel..........18 Comparative Assessment Regional Self-Supply and Import Independence 40 Figure 3....... 26 Figure 3....6 Comparative Assessment of Resource Consumption ........7 Comparative Assessment of Noise Pollution .................................20 Comparative Assessment of Future Potential................................11 Comparative Assessment of Potential for Economic Development ............................................................................. 22 Figure 3.... 103 Figure D...23 Results Economic Assessment ...................List of Figures IV List of Figures Figure 2................... 36 Figure 3....5 Cumulative Energy Demand (Primary Energy)............. 8 Figure 3.. 80 Figure B................. 33 Figure 3...............................1 Hybrid Village Systems: Distribution Steps ............. 44 Figure 3...........................4 Selected Air Pollutants ....8 Comparative Assessment of Cultural Compatibility and Acceptance ..........................

. 71 Table B...........................4 Range of Investment Costs for Hybrid Systems .......1: Initial Investment Costs for Diesel Gensets.....10 5 kW Hybrid Systems at Different Diesel Prices ......................................................................... 96 Table D....................... 95 Table C.............................. 69 Table A............. 19 Table 3.................................................... 68 Table A........1 Main Assumptions for the Cost Analysis ....................................... 20 Table 3.....7 Electricity Generating Costs PV/Wind..................................................3 Cumulative Energy Demand (Primary Energy) ............................... 84 Table C...........1 Amount of Greenhouse Gas Emissions .........1 Standard Household Characteristics................... 111 Table D..............2: Electricity Generating Costs for Diesel Gensets ......... 93 Table C.......................... 38 Table 4....................................7 Electricity Generating Costs for Different Scenarios.3 Peak and Base Loads for Different Village Sizes ...................................2 Rich Household Characteristics ................... 106 Table D................................ 101 Table D....... 49 Table A.........2 Criteria and Indicators for the Assessment of Energy Technologies ........................1 Scenarios and Technologies for Rural Electrification.................... 80 Table B......................2 Air Pollutants....... Inner Mongolia..3: Hybrid Systems at Different Diesel Prices ... 36 Table 3..... 82 Table B.................................................................. 106 Table D.6 Electricity Generating Costs of Wind/Diesel Systems [€/kWh] ..... 68 Table A.................................................... 16 Table 3......................................................List of Tables V List of Tables Table 3.........5 Electricity Generating Costs of PV/Diesel Systems [€/kWh].......................................................5 Specific Investment Costs of Hybrid Systems........... 111 Table D...............................................6 Investment Costs of Different Scenarios for Rural Electrification ....................................................... 112 ................................4 Main Assumptions for the Cost Analysis ....................................................2 Investment Costs for Small-Scale Wind Power Plants.. 34 Table 3............................................... 102 Table D...3 Performance Assessment Scheme......................9 Electricity Generating Costs of Hybrid Systems in Inner Mongolia .............................5 Share of Technologies for Electricity Generation....3 Investment Costs for Diesel Gensets..... 109 Table D..... 105 Table D......... 35 Table 3.............1 Hybrid Systems in Inner Mongolia ..........4 Main Modelling Assumptions............................................................ 70 Table A... 102 Table D................................8 Investment and Operating Costs of Different Household Systems........................

inverters Solar Home System World Health Organisation . produces i.e.e.Acronyms VI Acronyms AC CED CSD DC EMS GEF GHG GTZ KfW OECD PV Schueco SMA SHS WHO Alternating Current Cumulative Energy Demand Commission on Sustainable Development Direct Current Energy Management System Global Environmental Facility Greenhouse Gas Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Photovoltaic Schueco International KG. produces i. different solar energy systems SMA Regelsysteme GmbH.

Developing countries. Today. could not live up to experiences. i. 2002). Without states taking heavy financial initiatives. solar and hydro power. are the effect that can be expected from better energy services. their improved access to modern energy services has been regarded as essential for sustainable development during the Earth Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg. is likely to increase. productivity increases or improved economic opportunities. the combating population growth by shifting relative benefits and costs of fertility towards lower rates of birth. This lack of access to electricity mainly applies to rural areas in developing countries. Social benefits related to improved energy services include poverty alleviation by changing energy use patterns in favour of non-traditional fuels. will account for more than 60 % of this increase (IEA. without on the other hand increasing reliance on fossil fuels. however. is to improve access to modern energy services. 2002). 2002). and the creation of new opportunities for women by reducing the time for the collection of wood for cooking and heating (WEHAB Working Group. 2002. 1996a). the situation in 2030 will remain more or less unchanged with 1. the compatibility to climate is better than for currently used options. which is a major occupation of women in developing countries.1 Introduction 1 1 Introduction Recent research on the development of the world’s energy state and the future development scenarios show alarming developments: 1. time that could be used for education or employment instead. however. Around 2 billion people world-wide do not have access to modern energy services. thus. 2002). 3. Global consumption of primary energy resources. which are especially suited for decentralised electricity generation. Main hope is here attributed to the application of renewable energies as wind. A pos- . major ones being economic and social goals. A major problem related to the application of renewable energies in decentralised systems. is the instable energy provision due to the fluctuating nature of the resources. The effect of increasing global CO2-emissions will be the consequence. by catalysing the creation of small enterprises or livelihood activities in evening hours (WEHAB Working Group. 2. but additional measures are required as well.e. Higher availability of jobs. The challenge. energy services are indeed seen as a major driving force to economic development. however. In response to the lack of electricity supply in developing countries.4 billion people or 18 % of the world’s population without electricity supply (IEA. This is mainly due to the goals that are associated with the development of energy infrastructure. Renewable energies use environmentally sound technologies: their consumption does not result in the depletion of resources. Recent approaches meet this challenge with a focus on decentralised systems for the electrification of rural areas. which had been attributed to energy services in the past. with the increase being mainly based on fossil fuels. especially in Asia. The outstanding key role in economic development. and progress being made over the last 25 years has applied mainly to urban areas (The World Bank. and their application strengthens the security of energy supply by using local resources.

Firstly. a literature research was performed first. The objective in investigating key success factors is to maintain the sustainability of a project for rural electrification with hybrid systems.is developed. The sustainability of hybrid systems is assessed relative to the other potential decentralised electrification scenarios: diesel generator-based mini-grids. . 2003. Finally.2 Methodology To pursue the above objectives. site visits could not be held and. accepting that sustainability is an ongoing dynamic process. which are of importance for any decentralised rural electrification project and especially for hybrid systems. Special attention is paid to hybrid systems. 1. 7th. For the assessment of sustainability in Chapter 3. Moreover. Several factors have been limiting to this work. which needs to be ensured by setting the right framework. socio-economic and economic issues . therefore. Another objective here is to find key success factors for the application of hybrid systems. These key success factors are related to aspects of financing. A number of projects applying hybrid systems for electricity generation have already been carried out. 1. Solar Home Systems and biogas plants for electricity generation.1 Introduction 2 sibility to solve this problem is to backup the renewable energy generator with another power generator in a so-called hybrid system. which have already been applied in developing countries. Chapter 4 then describes experiences with projects in Indonesia and Inner Mongolia. This approach. this analysis is performed in comparative terms on the basis of an indicator set developed here.1 Objective The objective of this paper is to analyse and assess the sustainability of the application of hybrid systems for rural electrification in developing countries. has not been investigated yet and shall be matter of this paper. several are currently under implementation. the information here is limited to the findings of the literature review and the interviews. In this paper. the extension of the conventional grid is considered as well. 28th. 14th. while the potential of other such possibilities is briefly discussed as well. However. an indicator system on the three dimensions of sustainability – ecology. the question whether and to which extent these systems satisfy the expectations on rural electrification projects with regard to sustainable development. as well as with experts from Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW) on July. 2003. capacity building and others. 2003. the different systems for energy provision being important for the comparative assessment of sustainability are presented first. is just now stepwise gaining importance. where hybrid systems were applied. while chapter 5 then outlines the key success factors for the application of hybrid systems. and Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) on August. although being known for quite some years already. organisation. The different options for rural electrification are then investigated and compared with regard to these indicators. chapter 6 gives a summary and an outlook to the perspective of hybrid systems in developing countries. The findings of this research were then discussed with project developers at the fair Intersolar in Freiburg/Germany on June. Due to the absence of respective surveys.

Therefore. What proves to be right in one country can be completely wrong for another country. the analysis of hybrid systems in developing countries in general can come only to rather vague results.1 Introduction 3 Moreover. the findings of this analysis are always to be seen as strongly generalised and their applicability must be proven anew in each case. .

Different technological options are in practice. the options of importance for this work are discussed more in detail. centrally. accepting that no electricity can be supplied in times the genset is out of commission.. will be presented. power supply in developing countries for rural areas takes place in three different ways (Kleinkauf. most commonly diesel generating sets and renewable energies. The approaches of local and decentralised electrification are obviously closely connected and can be met by similar technologies. Moreover. decentrally. In a next step. J.e. This problem can be met by using a group of diesel gensets. Diesel gensets have problems with short durability. which are in operation in developing countries nowadays. 1996/1997): 1. 2000). which is due to the fact that they work very inefficiently when running just at fractions of their rated capacity. the electric current is produced within the village itself. including technical aspects to be considered and main applications. They provide a simple solution for rural electrification and can be designed for different capacities. the decentralised approaches of regional mini-grid systems or local supply of single consumers can become competitive due to lower investments and maintenance costs compared to large scale electrification by expanding interconnected grids.1. the different hybrid systems. With diesel gensets. Those of importance for this paper are described more detailed firstly in the following. Finally. 3. locally. by supplying single consumers and load groups.1 Diesel Generating Sets Small diesel-power generating sets (diesel gensets) have been the traditional way to address the problem of the lack of electricity. by expansion of interconnected grids. potential other hybrid solutions will be discussed against the background of applying them in developing countries. 2. 2. Raptis. the effi- .. with the other gensets providing backup (ESMAP. i. this chapter will also briefly discuss the centralised approach of the extension of the conventional grid to rural areas. being adapted to the needs of the consumers. In cases security of supply is not of major importance. W. 2. The objective is to provide a technical background for the evaluation of these options in the following chapters.. Generally. 2000).2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply 4 2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply This chapter gives an overview on potential solutions for rural energy supply.1 Decentralised Electrification In highly fragmented areas or at certain distances from the grid. single diesel gensets can be applied for electrification. F. by erecting or extending stand-alone regional mini-grids. The voltage of the generator is often adjusted to be higher than the required 220 Volt for the household because of high losses within the local distribution lines (Baur. Typically. due to repair or maintenance.

especially rural. The originating gas consists of 55 to 70% from Methane (CH4).. areas are far away or isolated (i. K.. and very often old motors from cars are used for the purpose of electrification. 1996). which is used for loading the battery. . 2001).000 gallons of industrial fuel and diesel and putting the sensitive ecosystems of the islands to high risks. Moreover. wind farms. two technologies are of high importance: Solar Home Systems (SHS) for supply of single consumers..e. the capacity can technically be expanded easily and. 2. On a local level. D. Sheriff. hydropower and larger-scale photovoltaics. Schaeffer. islands) from higher developed regions so that the regular supply with diesel fuel becomes a logistical problem and an important financial burden even in countries. they convert the insolation into electric current. Moreover.. Many. 2001). A common 50 Wp can supply lighting and a TV/radio for several hours per day (Preiser. but increases overall system costs. J. S. be adapted to individual needs.e. Moreover. Solar Home Systems Solar Home Systems (SHS) typically include a 20. which requires high cross-sectional wiring in order to avoid high losses (Baur. F. M. thus. The systems work at voltages of 12 or 24 Volt. The battery supplies electricity to the consumer during evening hours and in case of insolation shortages due to unfavourable weather conditions. Biogas Biogas systems utilise micro-organisms for the conversion of biomass (i. is more a problem related to infrastructure. excrements from animal husbandry) for the production of biogas under anaerobic conditions2. In 2001.. One of the basic problems for the application of diesel generating systems in developing countries. A. as experienced for example at the Galapagos Islands. and biogas for local mini-grids or single consumers.2 Renewable Energy Technologies The use of renewable energy technologies is a very promising approach towards meeting environmental. the battery offers the possibility to meet peak load demand for short periods of time. the transportation of diesel fuel can result in severe environmental damage. which can be used in gas burners or motors 1 More potential renewable technologies include stand-alone wind turbines. Diesel gensets are typically just operated for around 4 hours in the evenings.2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply 5 ciency of operation is between 25-35% (Turcotte. 2000).1 Both are presented in the following. social as well as economic goals associated with rural electrification. the tanker Jessica ran aground close to San Cristobal. The application of inverters to provide alternating current (AC) at a voltage of 220 Volt is possible.. The electricity current is provided in direct current (DC). 2 Anaerobic conditions: in absence of oxygen. Cosgrove-Davies. frequent start-up and shut-down procedures decrease their lifetime as well. spilling out 145.1. where fuel is heavily subsidised. The photovoltaic modules are usually installed on rooftops.to 100-Wp photovoltaic array and a leadacid battery with charge controller supplying energy for individual household appliances (Cabraal.. however. Pneumaticos. L.

acidification and methane formation. M.2 Hybrid System Technology Hybrid systems are another approach towards decentralised electrification. 2..1 Relevance One of the main problems of solar as well as wind energy is the fluctuation of energy supply. where the organic substrate is decomposed in the three steps hydrolysis. They can be designed as stand-alone mini-grids or in smaller scale as household systems. . Biogas systems are widely used in India and China for the supply of single consumers or local mini-grids. resulting in intermittent delivery of power and causing problems if supply continuity is required. basically by combining the technologies presented above. biogas lamps. This section wants to discuss available technology options. The presentation of these other potential options is left for section 2. solar cells and wind power plants” (Weber.2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply 6 for the production of electric current3 (Kaltschmitt. Although other renewable energy resources than solar and wind can in principle be used in hybrid systems as well. Main component of a biogas plant is the digestion tank (fermenter). Hybrid systems can technically be designed for almost any purpose at any capacity. three different types of hybrid systems have been applied in developing countries. Wind Generator and Diesel Genset. So far. 2000) or for gas cookers/stoves. radiant heaters. This can be avoided by the use of hybrid systems. i. general technical aspects and potential applications. the system components. 1995). 2.2. Photovoltaic and Wind Generators. R. including Photovoltaic Generator and Diesel Generating Set (Diesel Genset). 1 m3 biogas is necessary (GTZ.3. incubators and refrigerators working on biogas (GTZ.2. In developing countries these other technology options have not yet gained importance. Main applications for rural electrification in developing countries include independent electric power supply for 3 To generate 1 kWh of electricity. A hybrid system can be defined as “a combination of different. 1999a). but complementary energy supply systems at the same place..e. A system using complementary energy supply technologies has the advantage of being able to supply energy even at times when one part of the hybrid system is unavailable. 1999a). this has so far been limited to pilot projects in industrialised countries.

e. Hybrid systems are applied in areas where permanent and reliable availability of electricity supply is an important issue. 5. in cases of low sunlight or low wind.Missions. .). 5 Storage systems in hybrid systems in developing countries are usually battery aggregates maintaining a stable output over a time frame of one or more days.Farmhouses. the renewable part of the system satisfies the energy demand.Desalination Systems. A charge controller. 4 Personal Comment given by Mr. 3.2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply 7 - Villages. Installation material (safety boxes.). Residential Buildings. which can be avoided with hybrid systems. .4. a diesel genset.1 shows a principle overview of how to combine PV. wind and diesel generators in a hybrid system (Roth.e. Germany. A storage system to guarantee a stable output during short times of shortages. i. a DC/AC inverter needs to be installed additionally. TV/radio. at Intersolar-Fair. cables. J.or long-term storage. Hospitals.. Figure 2. plugs. etc.. controlling the battery not to be overloaded.e. 2003). 2003. using the energy surplus to load the battery. . at the same time loading the battery.2 Hybrid Systems in Developing Countries A common hybrid system for the application in developing countries generally consists of the following main components: 1. Maintaining high availability with renewable energies alone usually requires big renewable energy generators. Freiburg. Moreover. W. A charge controller regulates the state of load of the battery. . maintaining a stable energy supply during short periods of time (Blanco.Radio Relay Transmitters. the battery serves to meet peak demands.4 2. The complementary resource produces the required energy at times of imminent deep discharge of the battery. Usually. on June 28th. Rotating masses can be used for shorter time frames (seconds). .1. etc. A secondary source of energy for supply in case of shortages. .5 4. Georg Weingarten. Energiebau Solarstromsysteme GmbH. The appliances (lighting. i. . a renewable energy resource. Schools.Irrigation systems. 2003). At favourable weather conditions. combustion aggregates need to be used for medium. All these components and the problems related to their application are further described in section 2. The batteries act as “buffers”.Hotels. 2. A future option might be the hydrogen fuel cell.2. 6. A primary source of energy. which might not be satisfied by the renewable system alone.2. i.

et al. while in winter this figure is less. D. since PV modules provide direct current. Georg Weingarten. the hybrid solution using photovoltaic offers great potential in saving fuel.5 m/s already (Sauer. 2003).. the rest being supplied with the diesel genset. A project at Montague Island even reached an 87% decrease in fuel consumption (Corkish. Freiburg. PV/Diesel hybrid systems require a DC/AC-inverter if appliances need alternating current. 2003. Germany. The CO2 emissions decrease correspondingly. Lowe. Bopp. the observed fuel saving varies over the year.. If wind 6 Personal Comment given by Mr. Energiebau Solarstromsysteme GmbH.2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply 8 Solar Generator Charge Control G Wind Generator Charge Control Battery Inverter Mini-Grid / Appliances G Diesel Generator Charge Control Figure 2. on June 28th.1. at Intersolar-Fair.2. Freiburg.7 2. Energiebau Solarstromsysteme GmbH. in climatic regions like Germany a PV/Diesel hybrid system is designed to provide around 50% of the electricity from photovoltaic during winter. Typically..1 PV/Diesel Combining Photovoltaic arrays and a diesel genset provides a rather simple solution and is feasible for regions with good solar resources. built up in the same way as are PV/Diesel systems. Naturally.6 depending on the regional conditions and the design of the system. in principal. they can be applied in regions where average wind speed is around 3.2. 2000).2. R.2. Experiences show annual fuel savings of more than 80% compared to stand-alone mini-grids on diesel genset basis. Germany. Georg Weingarten. R. Puls. 7 Personal Comment given by Mr.. As can be seen in Figure 2. From a perspective of financial competitiveness. on June 28th. ..2 Wind/Diesel Wind/Diesel combinations are. H. G. at Intersolar-Fair.1 Principle Circuit of Hybrid Systems 2. Compared to the common solution for rural off-grid electrification using diesel gensets alone. The solar generator can provide about 100% of the electricity during summertime. 2003.

depending on the availability of resources. i.e.2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply 9 speed is sufficient. G. the objective in designing the system is to maximise the exploitation of the renewable energy resource.3 PV/Wind and PV/Wind/Diesel In some regions the exploitation of both wind and solar resources can become favourable.1 Biogas Hybrid Systems PV/Wind/Biogas ASE GmbH as the performing organisation has created an autonomous hybrid power supply systems for the purification plant of Körkwitz. if weather conditions are favourable. This kind of hybrid system has been implemented e.. it must be doubted whether this effect of further reduction of diesel use can trade off the higher investment and operation costs. While for the other hybrid systems applying diesel gensets. for a hikers’ inn in the Black Forest of Germany (Kaltschmitt. being replaced by the diesel generating set when low winds occur over longer periods of time. The objective was to provide 80% of the necessary energy. A PV/Wind hybrid system is able to provide energy all time of the day.g. Here. being highly reliable and resulting in a further reduction of diesel compared to other hybrid systems. using the renewable energy resources photovoltaic. situated close to the Baltic Sea in Northeastern Germany. the wind turbine is in charge of the provision of energy. combining any renewable resource with others is conceivable. M. For the application in developing countries. where two different resources complement each other. 2. During short periods of time with low winds. which is not suitable for some non-household applications. However. hospital electrification. a PV/Wind hybrid system might ideally be supported by an additional diesel generating set for times of extremely unfavourable weather conditions. the situation is different for PV/Wind systems. Of utmost importance is here that wind and solar energy supply complement each other so that energy provision is possible over the whole year. 2003).2. The PV/Wind/Diesel hybrid system has proven successful in Germany. 2. the system was implemented using just wind energy and photovoltaic arrays. In regions.. Wiese. however preparing the energy management for further expansion using biogas in a decentralised cogeneration plant.. i. 2. The main components of the system include a 250 kWp solar generator and a 300 kW wind turbine with 3 inverted rectifiers connected in parallel (Neuhäusser. breakdowns in energy supply are possible. 1996). A. In the first stage. Thus. being able to feed up to 30% of surplus energy under good performing conditions into the public grid. combinations in hybrid systems are worth discussing. accurate assessment of the resources is essential for the decision on the appropriate system design. at coastal or mountain areas with high degree of solar radiation. .e.2.3.2.2. This is obviously due to the fact that PV/Wind/Diesel hybrid systems involve a higher share of renewable energy resources.3 Other Hybrid Systems The hybrid systems implemented in developing countries so far do not reflect the whole range of potential solutions. however. Generally. wind and biogas for energy provision. the battery maintains a stable system.

however. 2. During the research for this work it was found out that these kind of systems are currently tested in developing countries in South Asia (ITDG. Especially in winter. Wind/Micro-Hydro and PV/Micro-Hydro While hybrid systems with large-scale hydropower generators seem unattractive. If the production of biogas is at times not sufficient. Instead of the diesel genset. Since the combination of wind and hydropower offers just limited advantages.2 Hydropower Hybrid Systems Wind/Large Hydropower On a seasonal basis. A reasonable statement on the applicability therefore cannot be given here.. or some kinds of fuel cells can be used to generate electricity in addition to the wind turbine. However. 2002a). for some locations the situation might be different.2. conventional gases as propane can be used instead. while hydro generators on rivers are usually at lower levels. This is due to the fact that the participating companies have been declared insolvent since implementation and the new operator of the systems could not be identified. 2003). However. small gas turbines. However. 1999). so that the feasibility of Wind/Large Hydropower systems needs to be assessed for each case individually. not be obtained. during late summer. Micro-hydroelectric generators are turbines that are able to op- .3. Combining three different types of renewable energy systems certainly involves investment costs too high for this purpose. Depending on the management strategy and the scenario used for the type of consumers. more detailed information could. For constant electricity generation. additional secondary energy needed from conventional fuels (propane or diesel) accounts for 7-11% of the total amount of electricity.2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply 10 Information on the performance of the installed system and about the further expansion with biogas could not be obtained within the framework of this work. wind has the potential to take over electricity supply. it is unlikely that these resources are combined in a project in developing countries. A key role can be assigned to the size of the systems’ gas storage tank and its operating management. both resources might become low. R. since this opportunity does not seem economically attractive. Generally it is thought that biogas plants instead of diesel gensets as backup for wind or PV systems offer an environmental benign approach towards rural electrification. here engine generator sets. and the combination of both is then disadvantageous. which is produced in an anaerobic digester. The engine is fuelled by biogas. microhydropower is more feasible. so that the potential should be more closely investigated. when river flows are low. wind resources are better at high elevations. the adaptation of this hybrid system for rural electrification in developing countries seems unlikely especially from a financial perspective. Modelling simulations proved that the availability of wind energy is upgraded by applying biogas systems additionally (Surkow. the two resources wind and hydropower tend to complement each other to some extent (Iowa. another energy resource would therefore be necessary. Wind/Biogas The concept of a Wind/Biogas system is to some degree similar to Wind/Diesel hybrid systems. Moreover.

diesel generating sets are rather sensitive to climatic and geographic conditions. Problems and other general technical aspects.1. rapeseed or sunflowers. makes their adaptation in developing countries a rather difficult task. 2. since here start-up and shut-down procedures are less frequent. 2002). a gasification system might be applied as well. being suitable for small rivers (Iowa. including general technical aspects and problems of the system’s components as well as technical management aspects. 2002b).4. but also common for the use of the single elements. a hybrid system applying wind or PV support can be attractive.5 °C above a temperature of 20 °C (Wuppertal Institute.. . In comparison to the application of diesel gensets alone.2. To improve the situation of diesel dependence. producer gas is made from biomass in a fluidised bed gasifier and used to fuel internal combustion engines. frozen in winter). Although the production of vegetable oil requires an additional initial investment. This. In comparison to other technical devices. is still matter of research and currently more applicable for industrial purposes (Iowa.2. as was further outlined in section 2. Here.1. with figures from 1. These plants are often locally available and CO2 neutral. Moreover. Vegetable oil can be made available by peanut plants.1 General Aspects General problems occurring with the elements of hybrid systems are not only specific for hybrid systems. 2. A holistic approach to create this kind of infrastructure and to make the use of renewable energy technologies in developing countries sustainable is imperative for energy planners and development aid organisations. and the accordingly missing infrastructure for maintenance of renewable energy technologies. A careful assessment of water resources is therefore essential. motor generating sets have a wide range of operating hours. This approach. to mention but a few. however. Where rivers have inconsistent flow characteristics (dry in summer. gas turbines or fuel cells. Instead of conventional diesel gensets.2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply 11 erate under low elevation head or low volumetric flow rate conditions. strongly depending on the way of operation. The diesel generating set The non-continuous use of diesel generating sets always results in a reduction of lifetime due to the frequent start-up and shut-down procedures. generators using vegetable oil for operation offer a potential solution.4 Technical Aspects This section gives an overview on different technical aspects related to the application of hybrid systems in developing countries.000 – 80. 2002c). F. this can be traded off with later cost reduction due to fuel savings. Lack of infrastructure for renewable energies One of the key disadvantages of renewable energies is the fact that they apply new and not yet widespread technologies. are briefly summarised below.000 hours for generators with capacities less than 30 kW (Kininger. 2002). being mostly produced in the industrialised countries. the application in hybrid systems is advantageous in this respect. especially those specific to the adaptation in developing countries. and another 1% for every 5. The decrease in efficiency is 1% for every 100 m above sea level.

Furthermore. the longer the battery’s lifetime. in most cases lead-acid batteries. The more optimal the performance of the battery bank. though being one of the least costly components in renewable energy systems. In order to guarantee this. resulting in the need for suitable operation and management system. is of high importance for the system’s reliability and highly influences the system’s maintenance costs (IEA. 1998): 1. 8 Personal Comment given by Mr. The charge controller. resulting in lower overall costs. 1998). both high and low temperatures should be avoided as far as possible (IEA. a battery installation should be designed based on the 80% of the nominal battery capacity (IEA. is a very sensitive and crucial part of the system. On the other hand. The performance of a battery bank is controlled with the help of a charge controller. Energiebau Solarstromsysteme GmbH. thus reducing the battery’s lifetime significantly. too. 2003. This is due to the fact that an accurately working charge controller increases performance and lifetime of the battery bank. The following major aspects need to be considered when designing a battery bank for hybrid systems: Capacity Design: When designing a battery bank installation. Regulation of the current from the renewable energy generator in order to protect the battery from being overcharged. it is important to note that a battery’s capacity decreases over lifetime. 1999a). Therefore.8 - - The Charge Controller The charge controller in renewable energy systems has two fundamental functions (IEA. at Intersolar-Fair. Deep discharge to less than 50% of the capacity.2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply 12 The Storage System The storage device of hybrid systems. High temperatures result in an increase of corrosion velocity of the battery’s electrodes. Low temperatures slow down the chemical reactions inside the battery. The optimal performance of this component highly influences not only the system’s performance. Effect of temperature: The nominal capacity is usually given at a battery temperature of 20°C. Thus. it also influences the overall performance costs of the system. 1999a). where the nominal value is given by the manufacturer. which guarantees that the battery is neither over-charged nor discharged too deeply. The end of life of a battery is reached when capacity has declined to 80% of the nominal value. 2. on June 28th. . daily control both of battery acid level and voltage are fundamental. Georg Weingarten. Freiburg. the battery offers support in times of peak demands. The use of storage systems in hybrid power plants has a twofold effect: on the one hand. Most controllers additionally regulate the current to the load in order to protect the battery from discharge. which cannot be met by the renewable energy source alone. thus significantly reducing the utilisable capacity. overcharge and a low electrolyte level should be avoided. Germany. the storage of power is meant to bypass short times of power shortages. the application of a charge controller is essential.

This gives potential for more costly controllers with higher functionality. Energiebau Solarstromsysteme GmbH. Since hybrid systems are typically designed for higher loads than pure renewable systems.2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply 13 For hybrid systems.e. on June 28th. however. many charge controllers cannot be properly adjusted. Since the genset is switched on in times the renewable energy resource cannot meet the demand. the control of charge and discharge basically works as it does in systems with just one renewable energy resource.000 cycles. Concerning the diesel genset itself. 2001). is different for hybrid systems using diesel gensets as a backup. Other dispatch strategies are to turn on the genset only when the load is reasonably large and to run it at a loading to supply just enough power in order to keep the batteries from being discharged. 4. Especially if the diesel genset is oversized. There. Main problems related to batteries and the charge controller in hybrid systems include temperature control. Sheriff. there are four major differences for diesel genset supported hybrid systems compared to “simple” systems with renewable energy technologies alone (IEA. A typical cycle life of hybrid systems’ battery banks consists of 2. deciding when to turn it on. meaning the load current minus the current available from the renewable energy generators. 9 2. and when to switch the genset off. exceeds a certain threshold.. charge currents can be rather high. This dispatch strategy is commonly quite simple: it can be determined by a low voltage point of the battery and a voltage point at which the battery is fully charged. or to start the genset when the net load.. 9 Personal Comment given by Mr. the charge controller is giving the dispatch strategy. which is often difficult.000 – 3. Pneumaticos. . 1998). PV/Wind hybrid systems). 1998). Freiburg. in addition to the former. using the power which is not required by the load to charge the battery bank (IEA. This increases the importance of regular equalisation and makes the cycle life the main factor determining the battery lifetime. The situation. the loading at which to operate. Battery banks in hybrid systems are generally relatively smaller and cycled more than. the diesel genset runs at full loading. in hybrid systems relying on renewable energy technologies for power supply alone (i. at Intersolar-Fair.e. F. in pure photovoltaic systems. S. without increasing the overall costs significantly. batteries are also usually the first component suffering from abuse (Turcotte. Germany. is also to minimise costs for diesel fuel and maintenance (IEA. one needs to distinguish two different scenarios: firstly. 1998). i. D. charge controllers are relatively less costly for the overall system.. the objective of system control. For the aspect of charge control. 2003. sometimes it is even left to the user to switch on the genset (IEA. the main objective of applying charge control is to maximise the battery’s lifetime. During this time. and not only that battery specifications are not always available. The fact that power is available on demand in diesel genset supported hybrid systems eliminates many of the vagaries associated with the fluctuating nature of renewable energy resources. 1998): 1. making the charge control simpler. Georg Weingarten.. 3.

2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply

14

Inverters In cases where the power supplied by the renewable energy generator is given in DC, a DC/AC-inverter needs to be installed additionally. This is due to the fact that most appliances needing AC current are less costly than those requiring DC current. There are different inverter models available, which are not to be discussed within this work. All of these models, however, need to meet the following requirements (Kaltschmitt, M., 2001/2002): optimal adjustment to the renewable energy generator proper energetic inversion to DC current compliance with the principles of netparallel operation

Inverters for hybrid systems are nowadays still considered as problematic and are in need for further development (Turcotte, D.; Sheriff, F.; Pneumaticos, S., 2001). Common problems related to their application in hybrid systems include faults during transition and difficulties in starting the generators. Moreover, available models often loose their parameters when being reset, and some faults additionally require manual reset (Turcotte, D.; Sheriff, F.; Pneumaticos, S., 2001). Modern inverter technologies available on the market not only provide the normal functions of an inverter, but additionally integrate the charge control. These appliances allow with their integrated system management an automatic control of the energy sources, the charging state of the battery and the power demand of the loads. 2.2.4.2 Energy Management Systems Energy Management Systems (EMS) are a modern possibility to improve supply security of hybrid or other systems applying renewable energy resources. It serves the function of the charge controller in a more flexible way, while at the same time serving additional functions. An EMS anticipates expected loads and prioritises them, co-ordinates the application of the different generators and optimises the exploitation of the renewable energy resource, and decreases the maintenance requirements by optimising the operation of the batteries (Benz, J., 2003).

2.3

Grid-based Electrification

Finally, the centralised approach of extending the conventional grid to rural areas is the last option to be described here. Grid-based electricity is delivered to consumers at three different levels (Baur, J., 2000): 1. The electric current produced in conventional central power plants is transported via high-voltage transmission lines at a voltage of 60 – 200 kilovolt over long distances; 2. On a regional level, the electric current is distributed to the villages via mean-voltage grid, normally at a voltage of 10 - 22 kilovolt. 3. Inside the village, the electric current is transformed to the voltage level of 110 – 220/230 volt of the households.

2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply

15

Compared to European standards, the conventional grid in developing countries lacks redundancy. This leads to lower costs on the one hand, but to less reliability on the other hand as well. Grid-based electrification is often highly favoured by rural population despite the problems with reliable electricity supply. However, the extension of the conventional grid is often not feasible from an economic point of view. Factors to be considered include10 distance of the village from the grid, number of households to be connected to the grid within the village, and household density in the villages, meaning the distances between the different houses.

Moreover, the fact that many developing countries are heavily dependent on fossil fuels makes grid-based rural electrification unattractive not only from an economic, but also from an environmental perspective.

10

For further reading see: (Cabraal, A.; Cosgrove-Davies, M.; Schaeffer, L., 1996) and (Baur, J., 2000).

3 Analysis of Impacts

16

3

Analysis of Impacts

Although several projects with hybrid systems for rural electrification have been carried out already, surveys investigating these systems are so far very limited. In fact, no socioeconomic survey discussing the adaptation of hybrid systems in developing countries has been conducted to date. This problem led to the idea of discussing the application of hybrid systems in developing countries not in absolute terms, but rather to compare their sustainability relative to other likely scenarios of rural electrification, which will be defined in the following section. This chapter, thus, aims to analyse the impacts of rural electrification in developing countries with hybrid systems relative to the different technology options presented above. In doing so, it is tried to find out to which degree hybrid system likely provide a sustainable option for rural electrification. The assessment of hybrid systems compared to the different other scenarios is accomplished with a set of indicators, which is developed in 3.2 and 3.3, making possible a comparison on the three dimensions of sustainability: ecological, socio-economic and economic issues.

3.1

Scope of the Analysis

For the assessment, the fictitious case of electrification of a remote village in a rural area in a developing country is discussed. It is assumed that this village is electrified with different scenarios of rural electrification, and their impacts on the three dimensions of sustainability are analysed relative to each other. Table 3.1 gives and overview on the chosen scenarios. Table 3.1 Scenarios and Technologies for Rural Electrification
No. Scenario Technologies PV-Diesel 1 Decentralised Rural Electrification with Hybrid Systems Wind-Diesel PV-Wind 2 3 4 Decentralised Rural Electrification with Diesel Gensets Decentralised Rural Electrification with Renewable Energies Centralised Rural Electrification by Grid Extension Diesel Gensets SHS Biogas Country dependent

3.1.1 Scenario Definitions This section outlines the underlying assumptions for the different scenarios for rural electrification, as they will be used for the assessment in the following. Scenario 1: Hybrid Systems The analysis of the different hybrid systems is here restricted to those which have been applied already in developing countries, namely the combinations PV/Diesel, Wind/Diesel and PV/Wind. The reason to leave out potential other technologies, as they were presented in

It is assumed that the households of the considered village are electrified each with a SHS. However. it is here often referred to experiences of two projects on rural electrification with hybrid systems. Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets The comparison of hybrid systems with diesel gensets is based on the assumption that the considered rural village is for this scenario supplied by a diesel-based mini-grid. not under the guidance of development cooperation organisations. Where appropriate. they are discussed each for themselves. For the assessment of hybrid systems. it is supposed that natural and other conditions for the realisation of the considered technical alternatives are given. two typical options are investigated here in comparison to hybrid systems: SHS and biogas systems. if necessary. and will be presented as examples in detail in chapter 4. Since SHS are not used for productive purposes. but usually for household electrification only. Biogas systems are investigated as village systems for electrification of the considered remote village.3. Scenario 3: Renewable Energies For electrification of rural villages with renewable energies.3 Analysis of Impacts 17 chapter 2. These projects took place in Inner Mongolia and Indonesia. The scenario “Rural area without electrification” is not included in the analysis. accepting that the comparison with a hybrid village system is to some extent not accurate. this is accounted for here. meaning that a generator is applied for producing electricity. It is obvious that in practical cases. SHS are accounted here because they are applied widely nowadays. Scenario 4: Grid Extension The extension of the conventional grid to remote rural areas is in most cases unlikely due to usually large distances of rural villages to the grid and the corresponding considerable investment necessary for the extension. for the assessment of hybrid systems it is seen as important to include grid extension as well in order to accurately determine the quality of hybrid system electrification. which more detailed information could be obtained for. is that this kind of assessment would be based on too many assumptions and therefore be too speculative. 2002. The hybrid systems discussed here are designed for 24-hours electrification of a remote rural village. the comparison of non-electrified areas with the electrification by different technologies seems to be inadequate in technical terms anyway.2. . the electrification of non-electrified areas has been regarded as essential to economic and social development during the Earth Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg. However. only a more limited number of the technical options will be available. operated by a private operator and being implemented privately. The different scenarios are all discussed as real application scenarios. since it is seen as inappropriate for being discussed here. which means that ideal conditions are not assumed. This is due to two reasons: on the one hand. on the other hand. it is thought that the comparison with SHS will be supportive to identify the circumstances under which the application of hybrid systems is reasonable with regard to sustainability. the relevant combinations of hybrid systems are discussed as a whole. However. It is rather a debate on principles but a question of analytical discussion.

The hybrid systems are then designed accordingly to meet this demand with the ratio 4:1 in the cases of PV/Diesel and Wind/Diesel systems. The annual consumption results from a calculated specific consumption per household and an additional 40% excess consumption for productive purposes. the comparison with weather data from several other locations revealed that this location makes a generalised statement possible by offering average conditions. the latter concept of indicators for societies as a whole has gained importance by understanding the global dimension of sustainability.664 kWh/m2/a. The need for such an indicator system. and 1:2 in the case of PV/Wind systems. . of which some of the most known on an international level have been set up by the Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). creating a transparent and simplified system to provide information on the degree of sustainability both to decision-makers and the interested public.11 Although this location is not situated in a developing country.1. The assessment of ecological issues is performed for a village with 170 households with a calculated annual peak electricity consumption of 48. For the design of the hybrid systems to electrify a village in Trapani. leaving much space for discussion and interpretation. 3. how- 11 Global radiation: 1. This electricity demand is then met with the different scenarios for rural electrification in order to comparatively assess hybrid systems. Indicators are used to give a comprehensive view on sustainability.3 Analysis of Impacts 18 Parts of the ecological and economic analysis in the following could not be performed in general terms and required an accurate modelling of the considered remote village and the installed hybrid systems. Source: Meteosat.2 The Concept of Indicators of Sustainability Measuring the degree of sustainability obviously is a difficult task. 3. A system trying to describe and to quantify the degree of sustainability is the concept of indicators for sustainable development. the details of the calculations can be found in Annex A. summarising complex information and. the annual peak demand of the village was determined according to different possible village sizes. Trapani/Italy was chosen as an example with moderately suited weather conditions. indicator sets have been developed and used to provide information on the state of sustainability of production processes or societies as a whole. The main assumptions are presented in the following. Especially.126 kWh/a. A number of indicator sets have been developed. The calculation of investment and electricity generating costs for the assessment of economic sustainability is then performed for different village sizes for the same location.2 Modelling Assumptions For the assessment of parts of the ecological and economic dimension. For the task of evaluating the sustainability of different energy technology concepts. thus. Most commonly. no approved indicator system has been developed yet.

In a next step. and also offering a comprehensive view on the their weak points from a perspective of sustainability. the three dimensions of sustainability – ecological. Krewitt. it allows a “relative” comparison of different technologies.4 0.1 0.. 12 On the one hand..1 0. .05 12 Compare for example: (Aßmann. W. evaluating their current state of sustainability relative to each other.1 0. M.3 0. 2003) or (Nill. This led to the following set of indicators: Table 3.3 Analysis of Impacts 19 ever. 3.3 0.. On the other hand. with the indicators weighted relative to their importance for the respective dimension according to the author’s opinion.3 Developing an Indicator Set for Energy Technologies Available indicator sets for measuring the sustainability of energy technologies have been found to be inappropriate within the framework of this work since they are commonly adapted to the conditions of industrialised rather than to those in developing countries and they include too many indicators.2 0.1 0. They do.. socio-economic and economic issues – needed to be broken down to a set of criteria describing these issues. a set of indicators measuring these criteria was developed. 2000).1 0. Marheineke. A. Voß. however. T.. R.3 0.2 Criteria and Indicators for the Assessment of Energy Technologies Dimension Criteria Climate Protection Ecology Resource Protection Noise Reduction Indicator Greenhouse Gas Emissions per kWh Emissions of Air Pollutants per kWh Consumption of Unlasting Resources Noise Pollution Cultural Compatibility and Acceptance SocioEconomic Issues Overall SocioEconomic Matters Degree of Supply Equity Potential for Participation and Empowerment Potential for Economic Development Individual SocioEconomic Interests Low Costs and Tariffs Economic Issues Maintenance Economic Independence Future Potential Employment Effects Impacts on Health Investment Costs per W Electricity Generating Costs per kWh Maintenance Requirements Degree of Import Dependence and Regional Self-Supply Supply Security Degree of know-how Improvement Weighting 0.3 0. provide the basis for the indicator set being developed within this work. is apparent and has been highlighted in a number of studies already. Friedrich.1 0.1 0.2 0.25 0. In a first step. the results being obtained by such an indicator set can provide a data base for the evaluation of the sustainability of a society as a whole.. D.

This set of indicators tries to give a holistic picture.13 However. and the assessment of these kinds of general benefits of rural electrification has been matter of a lot of research work during the last years. a detailed determination of differences can only be discussed on concrete case studies. A. . where each indicator is presented and analysed for different energy technology options. For the socio-economic dimension. can be covered by other means. meanwhile. investment costs. thus. As an example. The constricted number of indicators allows to give significant statements on the chosen criteria by being investigated intensively. DomDom.. the indicators are then summarised for each dimension individually according to their respective weight for the dimension. the indicator of electricity generating costs is seen as being of highest importance because these costs are to be covered by the customers directly. The extent to which technologies meet this objective should be weighted accordingly. the criteria of low costs and tariffs as well as maintenance are seen as most important criteria because of their high influence on the success of electrification projects. gender issues are not taken into account although this issue might be important in individual cases. Among these criteria. et al. D. emphasis is given to climate and resource protection due to their high importance for environmental sustainability. Maintenance. for example donor organisations.3 Analysis of Impacts 20 The discussion of the relevance of the different indicators to the three dimensions of sustainability is left to the sections below. moreover. For the economic dimension. is of key importance for the reliable performance of the electricity supply system and. 2002). aiming to analyse the three dimensions of sustainability as comprehensive as possible. while this work needs to stay on a more generalised level. 2002) and (Barnes..3 Performance Assessment Scheme 2 Comparatively very good performance 1 0 -1 Comparatively poor performance -2 Comparatively very poor performance Average performComparatively good ance or no statement performance possible 13 As examples: (Barkat. A. The weighting of the indicators is explained as follows: For the ecological dimension.. weighted high as well. - In order to come to a conclusion on the performance of hybrid systems on the three dimensions of sustainability. The comparative assessment of hybrid systems with the other scenarios of rural electrification with regard to the different indicators is done with the following assessment scheme: Table 3. The discussion of sustainability in this chapter does not account for benefits or problems related to electrification in general. the indicators for economic development and employment effects are emphasised in the weighting due to the fact that economic development is one of the major objectives of rural electrification.

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are here measured in CO2-Equivalents per kWh. shall be shown as a relative comparison rather than as in absolute figures. Air pollutants are emitted in combustion processes as well. SO2-Equivalents aggregate different air pollutants like SO2. this electricity demand was met with the different technology scenarios. 14 15 CO2 = carbon dioxide. production. N2O = nitrous oxide (laughing gas).16 The results of this analysis. the main results are presented here. CO2Equivalents aggregate the different greenhouse gas emissions as CO2. 3. CH4 or N2O14 due to their contribution to the greenhouse effect over a time frame of 100 years. For the modelling in GEMIS. For the extension of the conventional grid. China.oeko. gives chapter for a justification of the results. 16 Available at: http://www. For a better reading. All of these gases are emitted as products of combustion processes. and Emissions of Air Pollutants per kWh.e.1 Ecological Dimension 3. a free download software provided by the German Öko-Institut. CO = carbon monoxide. only the results are presented here. The details of the modelling assumptions and a detailed discussion of the results can be found in Annex B. operation. They can be assessed with the help of GEMIS (Global Emission Model for Integrated Systems). Conclusions on an absolute degree of sustainability cannot be drawn from this. but during their whole life cycle including i.de/service/gemis/. are closely linked to the occurrence of acid rain and have severe impacts on human health. this section presents only the assessment for hybrid systems in detail. For the relative comparison with the other scenarios. since it is not a detailed life cycle assessment.3 Analysis of Impacts 21 It must be emphasised at this point that this assessment scheme only gives information on the relative sustainability of the different scenarios compared to each other.4. All of these emissions occur not only during operation of energy supply systems.4. dust or CO15 due to their acidification potential. then. The emission of air pollutants is here measured in SO2-Equivalents per kWh. however.1. SO2 = sulphur oxide. transport. NOx. NOx = nitrogen oxide. CH4 = methane. and compares them relative to the other options for rural electrification.1 Climate Protection The degree of climate sustainability is here determined with two different indicators. three country examples (Brazil. 3. Greenhouse Gas Emissions per kWh. and South Africa) are chosen as representatives. recycling. . Annex C.4 Analysis of Sustainability This section analyses hybrid systems on the three dimensions of sustainability with the help of the indicators set up above.

1 shows the modelling results of GHG emissions attributable to the different scenarios for meeting the electricity demand of the chosen village. . PV/Wind systems result in lower greenhouse gas emissions than all other scenarios except SHS. The GHG emissions resulting from diesel-based hybrid systems are higher due to the application of the diesel genset. In comparison to purely renewable energy systems. Compared to conventional energy systems.000 0 PV/ Wind/ PV/ Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South China Diesel Diesel Wind Af rica Figure 3.1. their performance is therefore worse.3 Analysis of Impacts 22 3.000 30. The scenario of grid extension is described with the chosen countries Brazil. diesel-based hybrid systems are advantageous. 60. however. It shows that hybrid systems can be assessed as being supportive for the objective of decreasing GHG emissions compared to conventional energy systems.000 40.1.4.2 summarises the results of the analysis of GHG emissions on the basis of the comparative assessment scheme.1 GEMIS Results: Greenhouse Gas Emissions The comparison of GHG emissions per kWh shows that especially PV/Wind hybrid systems are highly preferential.000 20. Figure 3. South Africa and China. which similar greenhouse gas emissions can be attributed to.000 Greenhouse Gases [kg CO2-Equivalents] 50.000 10.1 Greenhouse Gas Emissions per kWh Scenario Comparison Figure 3. Purely renewable hybrid systems as PV/Wind are here performing even better than dieselbased systems.

They are therefore strongly disadvantageous in this respect. Diesel-based mini-grids result in the highest amount of air pollutants due to NOx emissions in the combustion process.1.2 Comparative Assessment of GHG Emissions 3. .1.3 Analysis of Impacts 23 2 1 0 PV/ Diesel -1 -2 Wind/ Diesel PV/ Wind Diesel SHS Biogas Grid Extension Figure 3. The other hybrid systems suffer in their performance mainly from the emission of NOx in the combustion process of the diesel generator.4. the application of diesel-based hybrid systems is associated with more emissions of air pollutants compared to the grid of Brazil. Thus. PV/Wind systems are advantageous in any case. The comparison with the conventional grid clearly shows a high dependence on the respective energy sources used in such grids. while they emit less air pollutants compared to the grids of China and South Africa.3 GEMIS Results: Emissions of Air Pollutants While SHS almost do not result in any emission of air pollutants due to the absence of a combustion process. China and South Africa rely mainly on coal with the associated high SO2-emissions from sulphur bound in the coal. These emissions result mainly from sulphur bound in the substrate.2 Emissions of Air Pollutants per kWh Scenario Comparison The comparison of emissions of air pollutants again shows a preference for the PV/Wind system. the amount of air pollutants is considerable in the case of biogas. While Brazil applies mainly hydroelectric power and therefore hardly has significant emissions of air pollutants. 800 Air Pollutants [kg SO2-Equivalents] 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 PV/ Wind/ PV/ Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South China Diesel Diesel Wind Africa Figure 3.

5.1. 2 1 0 PV/ Diesel -1 -2 Wind/ Diesel PV/ Wind Diesel SHS Biogas Grid Extension Figure 3. both during operation and for the construction of the power plant.2 Resource Protection The degree of resource protection is here measured with the help of the indicator “Consumption of unlasting Resources”.4 Comparative Assessment of Air Pollutants Emissions 3. The conventional grid is concluded to perform worst with regard to the emission of air pollutants. which is a measure for the whole effort on energy resources (primary energy) caused by the provision of products or services. PV/Wind systems and SHS are evaluated to perform comparatively best. The reason to investigate the CED rather than just the consumption of non-renewable resources is that the depletion of all resources is crucial for the environmental performance of energy systems. For the assessment. A comparatively good performance can be attributed to PV/Diesel. GEMIS investigates the cumulative energy demand (CED) in kWh. Wind/Diesel and biogas systems.17 It is therefore a measure to describe the extent to which renewable and non-renewable energy resources are consumed in order to provide electricity. the availability of unlasting renewable energy resources as for example firewood is to be ensured as well. GEMIS is used as well. 17 Source: GEMIS. This shows the assessment with GEMIS in Figure 3.3 Analysis of Impacts 24 For the comparative assessment. Scenario Comparison The comparison of CED with GEMIS shows expected results: fossil fuelled scenarios involve a higher amount of non-renewable energy for the production of energy. because most developing countries apply a significant share of fossil resources for electricity generation.4. .

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25

250.000 200.000 CED [kWh] 150.000 100.000 50.000 0 PV/ Wind/ PV/ Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South China Diesel Diesel Wind Africa Non-renew able Renew able Others

Figure 3.5 GEMIS Results: Cumulative Energy Demand of Primary Energy Thus, here again PV/Wind systems are to be distinguished from diesel-based hybrid systems. PV/Wind systems involve a similar CED as do biogas systems and slightly more than SHS, while diesel-based systems here come out worse. While in comparison to diesel gensets, all hybrid systems perform better with regard to CED, the situation is different concerning the conventional grid. Since the CED as well strongly depends from the energy mix of the respective countries, it is here decided to give preference just to PV/Wind systems and rank diesel-based hybrid systems similar to the conventional grid. Figure 3.6 summarises the results of the assessment of this indicator on the basis of the assessment scheme.
2 1 0 PV/ Diesel -1 -2 Wind/ Diesel PV/ Wind Diesel SHS Biogas Grid Extension

Figure 3.6 Comparative Assessment of Resource Consumption

3.4.1.3 Noise Reduction Noise reduction is here measured with the help of the indicator „Noise Pollution”. Noise is a ubiquitous environmental problem, being more than just disturbing. A stringent interpretation of the term “health” as given by the World Health Organisation (WHO) allows to call noise a health problem (WHO, 1948). The effects of noise on health reach from aural detriment or deterioration to extra-aural health problems or the perturbation of well-being (Helfer, M., 1998/1999).

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26

Although the absolute figure of noise pollution measured in decibel is of importance to measure the effect on human health, it is here abandoned to do so. This is due to the fact that on the one hand reliable data could not be obtained; on the other hand mitigation measures on severe noise pollution are available and applied in developing countries as well.18 Thus, this section is based on own assessment of the author, leaving out noise being generated during construction phase, as this applies to all scenarios. Assessment of Hybrid Systems PV modules do not create noise during operation. For the case of a PV/Diesel system, thus, the diesel genset is the only part generating noise during operation and through start-up and shut-down procedures. The noise originated by the diesel genset, however, can well be cushioned by building a capsule, i.e. a powerhouse, which is taken into consideration for the assessment here. Wind turbines create an additional buzzing noise by their rotating wings. This effect can be recognised as being disturbing. Moreover, the power distribution lines of the mini-grid further contribute with a buzzing noise as well. Scenario Comparison The comparison of the impacts of the different technologies shows a disadvantage of windbased hybrid systems, being due to the noise generated by the wind turbines.
2 1 0 PV/ Diesel -1 -2 Wind/ Diesel PV/ Wind Diesel SHS Biogas Grid Extension

Figure 3.7 Comparative Assessment of Noise Pollution For PV/Diesel hybrid systems, the assessment here is less negative. Still, the application of the diesel genset is disadvantageous in comparison to SHS. For the comparison with diesel gensets, hybrid systems are all seen as advantageous, because cushioning measures are usually not applied for diesel gensets in developing countries. The comparatively good performance of the extension of the conventional grid on this indicator results from the fact that electricity generation does not take place in the village itself, by this not being disturbing to its inhabitants.

18

Personal Comment given by Georg Kraft, German Bank for Reconstruction (KfW), on July 7th, 2003 in Frankfurt/Main, Germany.

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27

3.4.2 Socio-Economic Dimension 3.4.2.1 Overall Socio-Economic Matters The discussion of overall social matters, reflecting overall interests and needs for sustainable social development, is based on a number of different indicators: Cultural Compatibility and Acceptance, Degree of Supply Equity, Degree of Participation and Empowerment, and Potential for Economic Development.

3.4.2.1.1 Cultural Compatibility and Acceptance Cultural Compatibility and Acceptance can be seen as key factors for project developers in developing countries. The history of development aid projects has many examples of projects, which failed due to a lack of cultural compatibility and the corresponding lack of acceptance. This indicator, thus, tries to investigate whether major cultural obstacles exist and whether this or other factors can lead to problems with regard to acceptance. It is obvious that an assessment of cultural compatibility and acceptance in global terms can just be rather vague. Especially cultural compatibility varies strongly not only between countries, but even within different regions. However, it is tried here to assess the cultural compatibility of hybrid systems by extracting experiences obtained within projects and by referring to studies addressing this issue. For this purpose, detailed information only on two projects in Inner Mongolia and Indonesia could be reviewed, because other detailed project reports could not be obtained. Assessment of Hybrid Systems The final reports of projects applying hybrid systems for rural electrification in Inner Mongolia (GTZ, 2003) and Indonesia (Preiser, K. et al., 2000) do not indicate that cultural reservations must be anticipated. Neither is there any evidence that rural electrification through solar or wind energy would reveal any potential cultural obstacles.19 However, although cultural compatibility is likely not to be problematic, problems with the acceptance of the application of hybrid system can always arise from poor system performance.20 Commonly, rural population is familiar with good-quality energy services through information given by relatives or friends who live in grid-electrified urban areas. A system promising electrification on a 24-hours basis, but not working reliably, can soon lead to dissatisfaction. Moreover, it can be expected that in areas where renewable energies have not been applied yet, hybrid systems will be met with scepticism and caution by rural population.

19

Personal Comment given by Jörg Baur, GTZ, in Eschborn/Germany on August 14th, 2003. 20 In Subang/Indonesia, for example, it was observed that consumers were dissatisfied due to technical failures or temporary breakdowns of a PV/Diesel hybrid systems. Thus, a connection to the grid was stated to be preferential by the consumers (Preiser, K., et al., 2000).

The Indonesian project proofs that population of a hybrid-powered village does not feel discriminated with energy distribution compared to other customers (Preiser.. it is assumed that the use of renewable energy technologies is a rather unknown approach for most people in rural areas. However. 2003.3 Analysis of Impacts 28 Scenario Comparison The comparison as being presented in Annex C. The assessment of cultural compatibility shows that conventional technologies as grid extension and diesel gensets are likely to result in less cultural obstacles or problems of acceptance since these technologies are wellknown to rural population. et al. 3. Assessment of Hybrid Systems By being a decentralised system. Moreover. but also on own estimations by the author as well as on conversations with project co-ordinators of the GTZ. widely independent from national political matters.4. Low total costs make electricity affordable to people of almost any income class. but just very limited information could be obtained. and both need to be taken into account here: Access to electricity services can be hampered by existing structures of political power. hybrid systems are relatively expensive regarding both investment and operation costs. hybrid systems offer the possibility to supply energy equally to everybody within the village. From a financial perspective.1. Without taking external costs into account.2.2 is based on the assumption that all systems are working well. based not only on literature. This section is. . Surveys and project descriptions dealing with electrification in developing countries have been analysed. thus.21 In the assessment.22 This restricts the application of hybrid systems for the electrification of rural villages to areas with some economic and financial potential. in Eschborn/Germany on August. 2000).8 Comparative Assessment of Cultural taboos associated with dealing with Compatibility and Acceptance excrements. priority is given to the matter of equal access to electricity. supply equity is not a matter of course in decentralised systems and should not be overestimated. K. Low total costs are used as an additional criterion for the comparative assessment. 2 1 0 -1 -2 Hybrid Systems Diesel Genset SHS Biogas Grid Extension Biogas. 21 22 With Jörg Baur and Roman Ritter. 14th. faces severe cultural obstacles due to religious or social Figure 3. however..2 Degree of Supply Equity Supply equity basically refers to two different aspects. The way of implementation and existing structures of political power in the village itself can be obstacles for supply equity as well.

Another aspect to be considered is empowerment: increased understanding and participation of the interested public in a development context provides the opportunity of increasing empowerment. and therefore by their nature less able to guarantee longterm equal access to electricity. Both projects did apply certain consumption restrictions to the consumers. Not only that the installed capacity is limited and does not allow unlimited consumption of electricity.3 Potential for Participation and Empowerment This section aims to discuss whether hybrid systems are likely to contribute to capacity building on matters of energy.9 Comparative Assessment of Supply Equity 3. Scenario Comparison The comparison shows a great potential for hybrid systems on capacity building for energy issues. hybrid systems are likely to improve people’s understanding in matters of energy provision. but provide electricity the whole day. however. since especially in Indonesia the capacity installed was too low to meet the demand. which is not very surprising since the decentralised nature and the avoiding of fossil resources are major advantages of renewable energies. The provision of fossil resources as well as the conventional grid are often subject to political changes and interference. For a future sustainable energy system it is essential not only to provide energy in a clean and inexpensive way. as do decentralised electricity generation in general. Both project reports. come to the conclusion that people are willing and able to learn about the system.4. Electricity is also produced within the village itself. which improves understanding and empowerment. However. 2 1 0 -1 -2 Hybrid Systems Diesel Genset SHS Biogas Grid Extension Among the renewable energies.1. SHS come off better concerning supply equity. The fact that hybrid systems are applied at a certain limited capacity.3 Analysis of Impacts 29 Scenario Comparison The analysis of supply equity shows a preference to decentralised systems in general and especially to those applying renewable energies. . and by which people can learn about issues of electricity production. Figure 3. and that people were also willing to adapt to the restrictions that were set. preference is given to household units. is a good mixture for capacity building and empowerment. but also to make customers aware of the fact that energy is limited and saving of energy therefore important. Biogas plants come off better than hybrid systems due to the lower total costs associated with their application. Assessment of Hybrid Systems The experiences made in the projects in Indonesia and in Inner Mongolia do not create a consistent picture of the ability of hybrid systems to improve knowledge on energy saving measures. Since hybrid systems are discussed here for the application on community level.2.

K. allows shop owners or handicraft enterprises to extend their commercial activities to the evenings.3.. A. Assessment of Hybrid Systems As already mentioned in section 3.2. electrification allows handicraft enterprises to apply more power tools and to increase their productivity. and people in general have more time for enhanced commercial activities during the day if they have lighting for doing their household chores in the evenings.4. show that electrification results in a higher number of people being employed. for example. which was not expected especially in Indonesia. the conclusion can be drawn that they offer a good potential for economic development. This is due to the fact that energy services are commonly seen as essential for economic development: lighting. they are normally meeting the needs. A.. Complementary measures need to be taken in order to ensure economic development.1.. however..Figure 3. for example. Both projects experienced that the installed capacity of the systems soon was unable to meet the demand since people employed more and more electric appliances. These examples. and experiences made particularly in connection with SHS. the stability and flexibility of the system..4. which can be installed at and technically easily extended to comparatively high capacities. et al. et al. because they require a high degree of user involve. et al.3 Analysis of Impacts 30 People need to understand the limited nature of energy in order to properly exploit the installed capacity of hybrid systems and in order to give every user in the community the same possibility to use electricity. proof the necessity of careful demand forecasts as will be discussed in chapter 5. have greater -2 potential compared to the hybrid systems investigated here. For hybrid systems applying tion and Empowerment biogas plants as backup. 2 1 0 -1 Hybrid Systems Diesel Genset SHS Biogas Grid Extension Biogas plants. the projects in Indonesia and Inner Mongolia did apply certain restrictions on the use of electricity. in Indonesia some customers even evaluated the quality higher than that of the conventional public grid (Preiser. As a result. 3. a significant share of annual income could be attributed to electricity in Bangladesh (Barkat. the demand is likely to increase. moreover. the assessment would be different. However. the good quality of the produced electricity as well as the possibility to install high capacities make hybrid systems very favourable.4 Potential for Economic Development The indicator “Potential for Economic Development” certainly is of major importance for the assessment of the sustainability of energy technologies. If an adequate capacity is installed. but are matter of the implementation process and cannot be considered for a comparative assessment.5.10 Comparative Assessment of Participament. because once electricity is available. electrification should be seen as essential for economic development. they can supply electricity on a 24 hours basis. even among household without access to electricity (Barkat. . 2002).2. For hybrid systems.1. 2000). 2002). Experiences made in Bangladesh. Under quality aspects of electricity provision. but not as only necessary measure..

. The expansion of renewable energy technologies in Germany has shown that the provision of energy services gains importance.. et al.J. It can generally be expected that employment opportunities in production. because these other systems are problematic with regard to issues as reliability.3 Analysis of Impacts 31 Scenario Comparison Hybrid systems show a good advantage on economic development in comparison to other decentralised rural electrification options. F. sales. 3. K. 2002).11 Comparative Assessment of Potential practically no limitations to commer. service and maintenance of renewable energy systems will occur as was already experienced with SHS (Nieuwenhout. Only fragmentary information could be obtained on employment effects attributable to the application of different energy technologies in developing countries in general.23 Employment effects can result from enhanced economic activities as a result of lighting on the one hand.2.D. For this issue it was therefore tried to draw conclusions from surveys investigating the effects on employment of renewable energies in Germany. the effects of different technology options on employment are important. Socio-economic surveys on rural electrification in general reveal that employment effects are likely to occur and can directly be attributed to electrification. J. Haker.2 Individual Social Interests The criterion individual social interests will be discussed with the two indicators Employment Effects.. but are also likely to occur due to manufacturing and maintenance processes related to the application of the energy technology in the village. A. 1999). . J.4. Assessment of Hybrid Systems Compared to conventional power plant technologies.2. Demand-side-management to optimise appliances and con- 23 (Barkat. J. et al. 2002) reveals that access to electricity results in a higher number of people employed even among non-electrified households in the village..4.for Economic Development cial activities on rural village level has higher potential for economic development..2. 3. no studies at all were found investigating employment effects of hybrid systems explicitly. Case studies in Africa expect that the decentralised nature of manufacturing of technologies as solar energy is likely to result in wide-spread employment opportunities (Painuly. continuity of electricity supply or commonly installed capacities. 2 1 0 -1 -2 Hybrid Systems Diesel Genset SHS Biogas Grid Extension Just the conventional grid by offering Figure 3.. 2000). Fenhann.. renewable energy technologies as wind energy are relatively more labour intensive (Scheelhasse.1 Employment Effects In order to create a sustainable energy system in developing countries. and Impacts on Health.

Another aspect concerning human health refers to experiences with rural electrification. Scenario Comparison The comparison of hybrid systems 2 with other electrification scenarios shows a good potential for hybrid sys1 tems.3 Analysis of Impacts 32 sumption is likely to have significant employment effects (Scheelhasse. which makes them favourable compared to options as SHS. however.4. The electrification of rural health clinics is a main application for hybrid systems of smaller capacities. This. Other sources of soot and fumes are candles and kerosene lamps. fume and particles.2 Impacts on Health The relevance of this indicator derives from the experience that people in areas. For the extension of the conventional grid. Assessment of Hybrid Systems Hybrid systems emit corrosive gases during operation of the diesel genset. which reveal that rural health clinics could improve their medical services due to electrification.2. Haker. corrosive gases are generated with negative impacts on human health. The example of Inner Mongolia shows that hybrid systems indeed provide the possibility to improve the situation for rural health clinics reliably on a 24 hours basis. burn biomass for cooking. by this creating more employment opportunities than in the case of hybrid systems. Biogas systems. is taken into consideration here.12 Comparative Assessment of Employment.Figure 3.. Due to this usually incomplete combustion process.. . cannot be quantified here. which are not electrified. thus directly affecting human health (GTZ. refrigerators can be used to store vaccines. their higher potential on economic development and therefore employment opportunities than for hybrid systems is attenuated by lower potential for employment attributable to production or maintenance of the energy system. Systems Genset Extension which makes them favourable com-2 pared to conventional options as diesel gensets. Critical corrosive gases emitted by diesel gensets are NOx. K. 3. J. 1999). too. To which extent this observation might apply to developing countries as well. This is mainly due to the fact 0 that renewable energies are relatively Hybrid Diesel SHS Biogas Grid -1 labour intensive on the one hand.2. Moreover. There are no emissions during operation resulting from the use of the renewable energy technologies. by this creating employment ment Effects opportunities. X-ray and sonography equipment can be used for better diagnosis of illnesses. 2003). On the other hand they have good potential for economic develop. are seen as preferential compared to hybrid systems with regard to the fact that many system components of biogas plants can be produced inside the respective countries.

hardly result in 1 exhaust fumes.3 Economic Dimension 3. Low costs and tariffs in general are key factors for the successful realisation and sustainable operation of electrification projects. Investment costs must be seen as a major hurdle for the implementation of electrification projects. If first investment is too high and requires substantial financial expenditure.1 Low Costs and Tariffs The question of low costs and tariffs mainly depends on three different aspects: Investment costs per W. but also affordability of electricity services on the other hand are essential matters of investigation in the planning process of these projects. but also for commercial activities. not only for lighting purposes. a cost analysis for hybrid systems was performed based on cost data obtained by project developers and system providers and for the location of Trapani/Italy. For the assessment of costs and tariffs.3. moreover. Figure 3.13 Comparative Assessment of Impacts on Health 3. Willingness-to-pay on the one hand. Electricity generating costs per kWh. The following basic assumptions were made: . the extension of the conventional grid brings out similar health effects as do hybrid systems. While biogas is seen as -1 Systems Genset Extension preferable due to further effects on -2 overall cleanliness. potential customers are likely to decide for a cheaper option. and. not accounting for the fact that electricity generating costs in the end might be lower. Low electricity generating costs per kWh allow customers to apply more technical devices. they are seen as advan0 tageous compared to diesel gensets Hybrid Diesel SHS Biogas Grid and SHS.3 Analysis of Impacts 33 Scenario Comparison Due to the fact that hybrid systems can 2 well provide electricity to rural health clinics.4.4.

The details of the calculation can be found in Annex D.. Annex D. 2003). 2003. 27 Personal Recommendation Mr. D.0394 ×   Own calculation based on available cost data (see Annex D) Investment   P   [€/kW] kW  Schueco 26 Battery bank: 333 €/kWh for a 12V. Bopp. Diesel genset 10 years. Koerner during a telephone interview on August. in Eschborn/Germany on August 14th. 18th. former KfW staff member. 18th. 500Ah battery. 2003. GTZ. 2003. H. Support: 2000 € Operating Costs Manpower. 4. Wind generator 12 years.7 × exp − 0. Cables. 28 Personal Comment Mr. 24 Personal Comment Mr.3 Analysis of Impacts 34 Table 3.. Puls.1 to 1 € per litre. 18th. others: own estimation The cost analysis was performed for different village sizes of 30 to 300 households and.3 additionally gives an overview on cost estimations made by other organisations in order to make the picture as comprehensive as possible. Geis. 2003.007 × Diesel Genset: Costs = 345. the batteries are designed for a storage capacity of 2 days Inverter and Charge Controller “Sunny Island”. . Assembly and Commissioning: 15% of total investment Transport: 1000 € Local grid. Koerner during a telephone interview on August. Inverter and Charge Controller 10 years Cost data SMA KfW27 Schueco28 Own estimations GTZ 29 Own assumption For PV and Wind: (Sauer. 29 Personal Recommendation Jörg Baur.63 × exp − 0.5kW: 5000 € Planning. 26 Personal Comment Mr. Koerner during a telephone interview on August. 2003. 22nd. Tower): For Plants ≤ 10kW: Costs = 4309 × exp − 0. 25 P = Installed capacity. Battery 5 years. G. accordingly.1068 × Source Schueco24   P  25  [€/kW] kW  P   [€/kW] kW  For Plants ≥ 10 kW: Costs = 2016. during a telephone interview on August.4 Main Assumptions for the Cost Analysis Type of Costs Costs/Details Specific Investment PV Modules: 400 €/kWp Specific Investment Wind Power Plants (incl.. Maintenance and Repair: Annually 4% of total investment Interest Rate: 6% Miscellaneous Lifetime system components: PV modules 20 years. The electricity generating costs were calculated with the annuity method for diesel fuel prices of 0. Internal Wiring: 6000 € Cabinets. different system capacities.

5 indicate that the size of the battery highly influences the specific investment costs. inverters or other devices may significantly reduce investment costs.21 €/W for PV/Wind household systems.5 Specific Investment Costs of Hybrid Systems System PV/Diesel Systems Wind/Diesel Systems PV/Wind Systems at 2 days battery capacity PV/Wind Systems at 1 day battery capacity Share in Electricity Generation 4:1 4:1 1:2 1:2 Range of Investment Costs [€/W] 8.18 For PV/Wind systems. Scenario Comparison Table 3.67 – 12. charge controllers. cost data was collected from various other institutions. Locally produced batteries.86 – 9.3 Analysis of Impacts 35 For the comparison with the other electrification scenarios. Table 3.1 Investment Costs per W Assessment of Hybrid Systems Assessing the initial investment necessary for hybrid systems is a difficult task since it depends strongly on the chosen system configuration.03 to 4. they need to be taken with caution. moreover. the following results were obtained for the specific investment costs per W for villages with 30 to 300 households.00 6.03 to 3.3.1.20 8. This implies that PV/Wind systems are likely to be cost-competitive with the other hybrid systems only where weather conditions are favourable enough to guarantee electricity supply with smaller battery banks. These investment costs vary between 3. but should rather be seen as indicative. By this it is tried to find out at which level of the different cost ranges hybrid systems are positioned.8 €/W for PV/Diesel village systems. the quality of the components and the specific characteristics of the location.05 – 10. In the investment costs analysis.30 to 4.6 gives an overview on typical investment costs for the other scenarios of rural electrification. the influence of the battery capacity on investment costs was investigated by varying the storage capacity. 3. 3.23 – 9. The results in Table 3. Since these costs are based on data from German manufacturers.5 €/W for Wind/Diesel village systems and 2. Therefore. the here obtained investment costs for hybrid systems cannot be generalised for all cases. which are presented in more detail in Annex D.44 9.4. more suitable locations with regard to weather conditions strongly influence the system design and can therefore decrease investment costs. This is proven by a number of examples collected from other organisations. .3.

1996. The investment cost calculations for hybrid systems from other sources. requires high financial input for remote rural areas. For the case of a remote village. Schaeffer. Cosgrove-Davies. meanwhile. Figure 3. 2000).. the construction of power distribution lines account for 80 to 90% of the overall investment. 1996) (ATB.. hybrid systems require less specific investment due to the fact that the renewable part of the systems is not designed to meet the full electricity demand. M.. A.. 2 1 0 -1 -2 Hybrid Systems Diesel Genset SHS Biogas Grid Extension - - This leads to a comparative assessment as shown in Figure 3. L. however.. F. the number of households to be connected. investment costs for grid extension can therefore be evaluated as higher than for hybrid systems. Schaeffer. The comparison shows that among the decentralised solutions for rural village supply – hybrid systems. L.hybrid power plants require the highest specific investment and are therefore disadvantageous.14. 2000b). diesel gensets and biogas systems .14 Comparative Assessment of Investment Costs . by this reducing investment costs strongly since specific investment for PV modules does not decrease with higher installed capacities. and can be up to 20. The comparison of hybrid systems with biogas systems shows that biogas is likely to be less costly as well.. J.5 – 4 €/W Depending on the location. Grid extension. CosgroveDavies.000 US$ per kilometre (ESMAP..3 – 2. the investment for hybrid systems might become similar. M. and the density of households in the village (Cabraal.5 €/W 7 – 26 US$/Wp 2. A. The quantity depends on the distance of the village to the grid.6 Investment Costs of Different Scenarios for Rural Electrification System Diesel Genset SHS Biogas Grid Extension Range of Investment Costs 0. and are therefore evaluated as comparatively very good here. According to the World Bank. show that for other locations and circumstances. Source (Kininger. 2003) The comparison of this data with those for hybrid systems calculated here reveals the following aspects: Diesel gensets are likely to be least costly among the decentralised solutions. 2002) (Cabraal.3 Analysis of Impacts 36 Table 3. and: Baur.. Compared to the use of PV alone as SHS.

1 €/l Diesel Wind/Diesel: 1 €/l Diesel PV/Diesel: 0. Battery 2 Days PV/Wind. The results can be found in Figure 3.4.10 1. the electricity generating costs are only 0.3.1 €/l Diesel PV/Diesel: 1 €/l Diesel 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 120 140 160 175 225 275 Electricity Generating Costs [€/kWh] 1. both for PV/Diesel and Wind/Diesel systems. The effect of decreasing diesel fuel prices is only moderate. The electricity generating costs of PV/Wind systems as well strongly depend on the battery size and the weather conditions.e.3 Analysis of Impacts 37 3.70 1. which is mainly due to the decline in investment costs for wind and diesel generators.1 €/l compared to 1 €/l. and the chosen system configuration strongly influences the electricity generating costs.30 1.3.. higher loads/larger villages give preference to Wind/Diesel systems if wind potential is sufficient.50 1. the absolute numbers for electricity generating costs must be taken with caution. This is proven by comparing the data calculated here with those of other institutions.40 1. but also in the possibility to design the battery bank smaller. Therefore. so that the data here shall just be seen as indicative. does not only result in higher electricity output of the PV modules. Especially in the case of household systems.80 PV/Wind. The decrease in electricity generating costs for PV/Diesel systems is lower than for the other systems due to the fact that investment for PV modules does not decrease with higher capacities. - - Again.2 Electricity Generating Costs per kWh Assessment of Hybrid Systems The cost analysis of hybrid systems was performed for different village sizes as well as different fuel prices in order to determine their influence on electricity generating costs.00 0.15 Electricity Generating Costs in Comparison The analysis of electricity generating costs lead to the following main observations: The electricity generating costs of all systems decrease with higher capacities. In fact. which can be found in Annex D. Higher annual global radiation. 1. i. Battery 1 Day Wind/Diesel: 0. They might vary strongly according to actual site conditions.90 Number of Households Figure 3.20 1. which is mainly due to the fact that factors as the construc- .60 1.06 €/kWh lower for all village sizes at a fuel price of 0.15. the costs can be significantly lower.1.

60 US$/kWh 1 US$/kWh 0. 3. For PV/Diesel hybrid systems. Table 3. However. this observation must not be taken for granted and can differ strongly from case to case. because grid extension offers the least costly option for electricity generation if a medium voltage line passes the respective village nearby. 1999) (Wuppertal Institute.20 €/kWh Country dependent Source (ESMAP.000 kWh at an interest rate of 6% (Sauer. The main results are presented in Table 3. and since diesel fuel is often heavily subsidised in develop1 ing countries..20 – 0. Still. SHS proHybrid Diesel SHS Biogas Grid duce electricity at lower costs than -1 Systems Genset Extension hybrid village systems due to lower -2 operational costs. which can be found in Annex C. 2 The comparison with the conventional grid shows a disadvantage of hybrid systems as well.7 Electricity Generating Costs for Different Scenarios System Diesel Genset SHS Biogas Systems Grid Extension Specific Electricity Generating Costs 0.2 Maintenance Requirements The indicator “Maintenance Requirements” discusses requirements on maintenance structures. 2000a) (BMZ.3.16 Comparative Assessment of Electricity here is anyway critical.03 Euro/kWh for village systems with annual consumption of less than 15.3 Analysis of Impacts 38 tion of a local mini-grid or maintenance and repair must not be accounted. the situation can be completely different. Diesel gensets strongly depend on the diesel fuel price. et al. since this is left to the buyer of the systems. . 1999). Once the conventional grid is extended to a rural village. shows a clear disadvantage of hybrid village systems among the decentralised solutions. the scattered nature of these systems is generally problematic with regard to maintenance. 2002) The comparison shows that biogas systems are the least costly option among the decentralised systems from a point of view of electricity generating costs.7. If compared to Generating Costs hybrid household system. they are evaluated as 0 comparatively good here. the Fraunhofer-Institute states that electricity generating costs are likely not to become lower than 1..4. the resulting electricity generating costs are likely to be lower. Scenario Comparison The comparison with other potential systems for rural electrification. D.15 – 0. For decentralised electrification.3. the comparison with hybrid village systems Figure 3.

on August. This shows that maintenance structures are very complex in the case of hybrid systems.. the assessment as presented in Figure 3. Scenario Comparison The comparison of maintenance requirements with other scenarios shows that hybrid systems due to their complexity require higher attention on maintenance issues than do other systems for rural electrification.3 Economic Independence 2 1 0 -1 -2 Hybrid Systems Diesel Genset SHS Biogas Grid Extension Figure 3. Just biogas systems are here seen to be even more problematic. Generally. GTZ. 2001).. Project developers state this issue to be of major importance and very crucial from a technical point of view30: whole maintenance centres need to be erected close to the villages. With focus on matters of energy. 14th. in hybrid systems.3 Analysis of Impacts 39 Assessment of Hybrid Systems Maintenance requirements for hybrid systems must be evaluated as being comparatively high. which is an important economic factor since commercial activities require reliable 30 Personal Comment given by Jörg Baur.4. More details can be found in section 5. Experiences show that regular annual inspection and maintenance can reduce average fault rates of three failures per year to one failure every two years (Turcotte. adequate supply of spare parts is essential. because biogas systems require regular attendance and maintenance.3. maintenance centres need to be erected. and Supply Security. and problems with charge controller and batteries make these systems comparatively problematic with regard to maintenance.17 reflects that maintenance is problematic for rural electrification in general. If this is not ensured. F. 2003. . Sheriff. in Eschborn/Germany.1. To make customers aware of the need for maintenance of these small components is one of the key issues to be addressed in the implementation process of hybrid electrification projects. etc. batteries and charge controllers. S. and whether the creation of economic surplus remains within the country on the other hand.. None of the systems is therefore assessed as comparatively very good with regard to maintenance here. than system breakdowns of several days can be the result.17 Comparative Assessment of Maintenance Requirements The criterion of economic independence is measured with the two indicators Degree of Import Dependence and Regional Self-Supply. D. two important aspects of electrification are investigated in detail: on the one hand supply security refers to likeliness of system breakdowns. Technicians need to be educated. Pneumaticos. the question to be discussed here is whether a technology is able to decrease dependency of developing countries on the one hand. 3. By investigating the degree of supply security. Economic dependence on industrialised countries is one of the major problems of developing countries. Special attention needs to be paid to the maintenance of the key components.

.Figure 3. the need for diesel fuel makes regions applying this technology dependent on fuel imports. The example of Inner Mongolia. R. On the one hand. 31 See for example: (Hemmers. Scenario Comparison In comparison to the other scenarios. Pure renewable energies. Improvements in this respect and the development of markets for renewable technologies can be expected only over longer periods of time and often need external support.3 Analysis of Impacts 40 electricity output. charge controllers. -2 however. wiring.3. (IEA. however. 1990). On the other hand experiences also show that quality of important system parts as batteries is likely to be low (Preiser. show that developing countries very well had the ability to produce at least parts of hybrid systems. 2000). On the other hand the importance of supply security refers to the question whether a technology has the ability to supply electricity the whole day. 3. 1999b). shows that a market for renewable energies can emerge as well (GTZ. i.Supply and Import Independence sources.3. Systems like biogas plants are neither dependent on new tech. The latter question has been discussed for many years already. et al. .. 2003). can be preferred to hybrid systems. where renewable energies have been strongly promoted. 2 two major groups can be distinguished: electrification scenarios de1 pendent on fossil resources are less 0 preferential from the point of view of Hybrid Diesel SHS Biogas Grid -1 Systems regional self-supply and import indeGenset Extension pendence. two different aspects need to be discussed. etc. the question whether the other components of a hybrid system can be produced in the respective countries is of major importance for sustainability in terms of maintenance as well as further dissemination of this technology. and therefore are significantly preferential to hybrid systems. K. 31 Experiences lately. On the other hand.e.18 Comparative Assessment Regional Selfnologies nor reliant on fossil re. batteries.4. It was argued that necessary production facilities and experts are likely not to be available in developing countries for many years.1 Degree of Import Dependence and Regional Self-Supply Assessment of Hybrid Systems With regard to import dependence and regional self-supply.. except diesel is produced in the country itself. The fear is that dependency on oil imports from industrialised countries might be replaced by a dependency on imports of modern technologies for the use of non-depleting resources as solar energy.

The experiences with hybrid systems in Inner Mongolia and Indonesia therefore did not show major breakdowns due to system component failures. tribute is given to the fact that fossil resources are limited and that for future development a decrease of dependence on such resources is desirable.3. 2 3. With the help of demonstration projects and well-functioning rural electrification projects.. et al. K.4.. More-1 Systems Genset Extension over. Anyhow. Naturally. For this reason. hybrid systems offer a high degree of supply security.3. K.4. This and the fact that hybrid systems can be applied for 24-hours electrification shows that hybrid systems generally have a relatively high degree of supply security. 2000). both nowadays being maFigure 3.4 Future Potential The criterion of future potential is discussed with the indicator “Degree of know-how Improvement”. The assessment here therefore reflects supply security as a main strength of hybrid systems. which cannot be influenced by project developers. modern and sustainable approaches for rural electrification can be promoted. By this. Firstly. a hybrid system is still able to supply a limited amount of energy with the other components. hybrid systems apply renewable -2 energy technologies as photovoltaic and wind.19 Comparative Assessment of Supply Se. Scenario Comparison Compared with other methods.3.ture technologies. The relevance of future potential and know-how improvement is to be seen within the context of technology transfer. Assessment of Hybrid Systems . system breakdowns can occur by incidents. capacity building and sustainable energy development. the system is likely not to cover demand increase at a certain stage anymore. Moreover. but Hybrid Diesel SHS Biogas Grid are backed up by another one. As an example.2 Supply Security Assessment of Hybrid Systems Renewable energy generators as PV arrays and wind generators have a lifetime of up to 20 years and are nowadays very reliable.. leading to breakdowns and therefore decreasing supply security severely (Preiser. the likelicurity hood of complete system breakdowns is comparatively low.3 Analysis of Impacts 41 3. this section tries to identify the potential of the respective technologies by evaluating their degree of modernity and their ability to improve the people’s knowledge on energy issues.. The experience of Indonesia shows as well that if projections are not carried out closely. careful projection of demand development is essential in order to enable supply security. 2000). et al. if systems breakdowns due to failures of one of the electricity generation components occur. a PV/Diesel hybrid system in Indonesia was not working due to lightning strike (Preiser. This observation is mainly 1 due to the fact that hybrid systems do 0 not rely on one generator alone.

2 1 0 Hybrid Diesel SHS Biogas Grid -1 Systems Genset Extension Diesel gensets and extension of the -2 conventional grids on the other hand are options. the relatively low energy consumption for the production of hybrid systems as well contributes to a good overall result on environmental sustainability compared to diesel gensets and grid extension. socio-economic and economic sustainability are still discussed individually. hybrid systems indeed have the potential to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. as was the objective in the beginning. Scenario Comparison For SHS and Biogas. A high degree of potential for know-how improvement and capacity building can therefore be attributed to such technologies. The three dimensions ecological. Moreover. which are based on approaches being followed in the industrialised countries as well and involve lower dependence on fossil resources.5. which was attributed to the individual indicators in Table 3.1 Results 3. to which hybrid systems are likely to be a sustainable option for rural electrification. 3.3 Analysis of Impacts 42 Hybrid systems apply modern and new technologies for rural electrification. the comparison of the future potential clearly results in a preference for the solutions based on renewable energy resources. 3.5. which certainly offer less potential for know-how improve.1. since these are modern and new technologies not demanding fossil resources either. . the future potential can be seen as equally high.Figure 3.2 on page 19. With this. Especially compared to conventional electrification solutions. tential Thus. it is tried to come to a conclusion on the degree.20 Comparative Assessment of Future Poments.5 Results and Discussion The result of the assessment of the indicators is now aggregated according to the weight.1 Ecological Dimension The analysis of the ecological dimension shows good potential for hybrid systems.

For the real application of hybrid systems. These aspects include mainly battery recycling.21 Results Ecology Assessment benign than the conventional grid strongly depends on the energy mix of the respective countries. especially of those applying diesel gensets for backup. other environmentally important aspects would be of importance as well and would need to be examined as well. since leakages in diesel tanks and the associated ground pollution are a major problem especially in dieselbased mini-grids. 32 Note: In practical terms. which needs to be assured in order to make the systems environmentally benign. village electrification also for productive purposes in the case of hybrid systems). . PV/Wind systems are the only systems being able to compete under ecological aspects and to provide an equal environmentally sound solution. the choice between SHS and hybrid systems will not need to be made. Therefore. aspects of diesel storage need to be taken into account. -1 The comparison of hybrid systems with purely renewable energy technologies as SHS and biogas. The comparison here is therefore fictitious. since hybrid systems are especially meant to replace them in rural electrification. The question whether hybrid systems are more environmentally Figure 3. because they serve different purposes (basic household electrification in the case of SHS. the commonly high dependence of developing countries on fossil fuels allows assessing the environmental performance of hybrid systems as better. Moreover.32 The assessment of environmental sustainability was here restricted to matters of air and noise pollution. the aggregated impacts on environment investigated here are worse for diesel-based hybrid systems. however. reveals a worse performance of hybrid systems.3 Analysis of Impacts 43 2 1 0 This observation is not very surprising with regard to diesel gensets. Due to the fact that purely renewable systems do not consume fossil resources during operation. and can become problematic for diesel-based hybrid systems as well. Nevertheless. if the choice is to be made between hybrid systems and other renewable energies as SHS and biogas. The comparison of hybrid systems with the extension of the conventional grid does not provide a -2 PV/ Diesel Wind/ PV/ Wind Diesel SHS Biogas Grid consistent picture at first Diesel Extension glance.

The analysis here reveals that hybrid systems can be ranked similarly to SHS. These indicators have Hybrid Diesel SHS Biogas Grid Systems Gensets Extension been weighted comparatively high in the assessment scheme since the furtherance of economic development is one of the main Figure 3. indeed. result in the demand for high involvement of donor organisations. Regarding other matters of social sustainability as supply equity and capacity building/empowerment. Hybrid systems by providing high quality and reliable electrification and with the quality of electric current being comparable to the conventional grid are likely to be the best among the here investigated methods for decentralised electrification.1. they do. therefore.2 Socio-Economic Dimension The assessment of the socio2 economic effects of hybrid systems reveals a good preference 1 for hybrid systems compared to other decentralised solutions. however.5. The slight comparative disadvantage of hybrid systems to grid-based electrification mainly results from the high preference rural population is likely to give to grid extension and from the high potential for economic development attributed to grid-based electrification here. 3. severe and Figure 3. the decentralised option hybrid system is certainly favourable. however. assesses SHS as problematic from this point of view.3 Analysis of Impacts 44 3.5. But high investment costs. which have been facing many problems with regard to financial issues as investment and maintenance. hybrid systems have problems in 2 competing with other decentralised systems for rural electrification.22 Results Socio-Economic Assessment hopes connected to rural electrification. then this applies to hybrid systems as well.1.23 Results Economic Assessment are in the relative assessment here not reflected accurately in absolute terms. 1 Hybrid systems have advantages with regard to supply security 0 compared to other decentralised options. .3 Economic Dimension From an economic perspective. If one. These problems are. -1 high electricity generating costs and the problem of high require-2 ments on maintenance are main Hybrid Diesel SHS Biogas Grid problems associated with the apSystems Genset Extension plication of hybrid systems. 0 which is mainly due to the high potential of hybrid systems for -1 economic development and for the creation of employment op-2 portunities.

It is rather inappropriate to apply hybrid systems in rural areas. Hybrid systems certainly have the potential of furtherance of economic development. both on a household scale as well as in the here investigated village mini-grids. decentralised systems for electrification are advantageous compared to grid extension with regard to the regional creation of value and to independence and supply security. to be taken with caution. then. the analysis shows that especially the question of financial competitiveness with other decentralised options for rural electrification is a major problem. For the real application of hybrid systems. Nevertheless. What. Firstly. two different possibilities are distinguished. the assessment of these impacts was done in relatively general terms and is therefore strongly related to the underlying assumptions and their subjective evaluation. It was shown that hybrid systems indeed can be a method for sustainable rural electrification with regard to ecological and socio-economic issues. and the extension of the conventional grid to these areas will in practical cases not be an option for their electrification due to the high investment involved.5. to which degree hybrid systems are likely to provide a sustainable option for rural electrification. it is thought here that hybrid systems on village level should just be applied in areas where this potential. From an economic perspective. and under which circumstances should they be implemented? For the answer to these questions. is at all given. as well. However. 2003). meaning the demand for electrification for productive purposes. and the resulting intermittent supply of energy was accepted (GTZ. is crucial. for the electrification of individuals. cannot fully exploit the system. 1. does make sense at all. the question is whether the application of hybrid systems. cannot simply be answered with yes or no. In a way. this main advantage also provides the ground on which to decide whether or not to apply hybrid systems. and the question whether positive impacts of hybrid systems on ecological and socio-economic issues trade-off this problem. From a personal point of view. Hybrid systems are applicable for remote rural areas. This assessment is. applies to hybrid systems. being relatively expensive and sophisticated at the same time. thus.3 Analysis of Impacts 45 The comparison also revealed that hybrid systems are disadvantageous from an economic perspective to grid extension. 3. but at least a basis of economic de- .2 Discussion The analysis of impacts of hybrid systems reveals that the initially raised question. the question whether or not to apply hybrid systems depends on the respective local circumstances. The discussion of advantages and disadvantages here has revealed that probably the most important advantage compared to other systems is that hybrid systems offer a good potential for economic development. is the niche for hybrid systems. But if this is the case. in other terms. is the answer on the initially raised question whether hybrid systems are a sustainable solution for rural electrification? What. This. however. the question of ecological and socio-economic impacts will always need to be investigated individually. which do not have the demand for reliable and continuous electricity supply and. In Inner Mongolia it was experienced that the diesel genset was in some cases not operated in order to decrease expenditure on diesel fuel.

For this purpose. The indicator set developed here and presented in section 3. then the application of hybrid systems might be ideally seen as the second step of development. taking account of the specific conditions and circumstances. etc. the advantage of high quality electrification exactly adapted to the consumer demand applies and makes hybrid systems very favourable and certainly trades off the relatively high investment costs. If one considers economic development as a stepwise process. hotels.3 Analysis of Impacts 46 velopment already taking place should be given in order to apply and fully exploit hybrid systems. telecommunication devices. However. Secondly. the sustainability of hybrid systems and other options will need to be investigated prior to the implementation process every time again individually. this assessment is not to be taken for granted for any situation. small-scale hybrid systems are well applicable to the electrification of single consumers as rural health clinics. The extension of such small-scale renewable solutions to hybrid systems by applying additional diesel or other generators might then be a possibility to support the next step of development by providing 24-hours electrification. are seen as less suitable for poverty alleviation for the poorest as are other systems. For a respective project with the objective of sustainable rural electrification.3 might provide a framework for such an assessment. It is based on a subjective and generalised assessment of the impacts of hybrid systems and therefore not universally applicable. Hybrid systems. Hybrid systems are here assessed to be more suitable for supporting development of areas. desalination systems. therefore. . smaller and less sophisticated solutions as biogas. 2. which are already developing by other means and where other conditions are favourable to allow a positive prognosis of further development. For supporting the first step. SHS or stand-alone wind turbines seem to offer a better suited method.

The following information were obtained at the on-site visit: Lightning stroke has damaged the plant. 4.2. two existing plants were visited by the project planners. the results on hybrid systems are summarised here. first pilot projects installed 85 SHS and 15 PV street lighting already in 1989 in Sukatani.2.1. with special focus on SHS. Since breakdown of the system.2 Project Description Within the project described in (Preiser. which according to their opinion provided ideal electricity supply for their remote village.. but no reaction resulted from that.. but also a number of PV-based hybrid systems. The inhabitants of the village reported the breakdown of the system two months before the on-site visit. a test and certification laboratory for PV is to be erected in Jakarta. the operational experiences with PV systems were reviewed. the village used just the diesel genset for electrification. K. For this purpose.1. both consisting of a PV generator. Systems of choice are not only SHS. a market for SHS has developed over recent years. Therefore.4 Project Examples 47 4 Project Examples This section presents the experiences made in two projects on rural electrification with hybrid systems in Indonesia and Inner Mongolia.2 This system was erected in 1997 and is designed to provide electricity to three settlements with altogether 350 families. but also with regard to PV hybrid systems. a wind power plant and a diesel genset. Despite the problems. so that this could easily be repaired by a technician. By this. which aims to electrify one million households with PV within 10 years. . PV/Diesel Hybrid System close to Subang - 4. hygiene and fuel.1. the Indonesian government has created the so-called 50 MW PV-programme in 1997. drivers. The village has an elementary school and some shopping facilities for food. et al. Inhabitants are usually farmers.500 islands with approximately 23 million households not being connected to the conventional grid. which is switched on during evening hours and works smoothly. In order to overcome this situation. or work in nearby urban areas.1 Hybrid Systems in Indonesia 4. The project team felt that just protection elements were damaged.1 PV/Wind/Diesel Hybrid System at Nusa Penida Island Two plants.1 Baseline Indonesia consists of around 17. 4. and since then there is no 24-hours electricity supply. Indonesia has long standing experiences with PV. They are based on literature review. 4.1. 2000). people were satisfied with the hybrid systems. are connected in parallel to supply electricity to a village of approximately 50 inhabitants.

200 Ah and a 20 kW bi-directional Inverter. the system could soon not meet the demand anymore. for which they had to pay a connection fee of 20. people began to apply more electrical devices than they were supposed to. in turn. because those devices. Some adapters and cables of the PV-modules were also abraded and needed to be replaced. Test of system components proved that the system was still in good shape. a 40 kW Diesel Genset. During night-time. only one of the three settlements can use electricity. because the provided amount of energy was not sufficient and the temporary disconnection was not acceptable. where light is simply not switched off. 33 It was assumed that due to the low income of inhabitants. which need to be connected to the grid permanently. . People were obviously dissatisfied with the system’s performance. however. while during daytime. could not be used anymore. Already in the year 2000. The system was designed for a electricity consumption of 150 kWh/d.000 or 30. which is due to the system’s constant operation with high loads. The system applies two different load limitations. village inhabitants are not supplied with electricity for 24 hours anymore. Soon after connection. exceeding the assumed level by 88 kWh/d.e. However. the behaviour in using lights was similar to that in urban areas. all settlements obtain electricity service. project organisation was felt to be not transparent and people would have wished to be more involved in the project during implementation. The battery bank was after the three years of operation down to a capacity of 60% and therefore close to replacement. respectively. The first led to increased electricity generating costs. On the other hand. proved that this assumption was wrong. the installed capacity was likely to be sufficient to satisfy consumers’ needs.4 Project Examples 48 The hybrid system consists of a 7 kWp PV Generator. In a new arrangement. The operation of the system.000 Indonesian Rupees. this was not a problem. Consumers could be connected to either 100W or 200W. When asked. they proved good understanding about the characteristics of the system and felt that the allocation of electricity was fair. The whole situation led to strikes and civil commotion. which where experienced by system failures. ironing during daytime. Since the fuses did not function. The organisation committee. shows that maybe not all characteristics of electricity supply and energy saving had been understood. while the latter led to massive frustration among consumers. The saved money of six million Rupees disappeared during these changes. the consumption rose to 238 kWh/d. being secured by fuses.500 Indonesian Rupees. 33 Quoted Exchange Rate: 1 US $ = 2. and only the local technician remained in position. tried to cope with increased level of demand by extending the operational hours of the diesel genset and by temporarily disconnecting parts of the village from the system. all system components except the battery bank were showing good overall test result. But when other consumers began to follow this behaviour. This. a Battery Bank of 1. which was created in the village before and which was in charge of the hybrid system. People had experienced the limitations of the system and did adapt to the system’s needs by i. The organisation committee changed several times. just those.

2 Project Description This project was implemented to locally produce and use wind and solar energy systems to solve problems with the availability of energy in rural areas.1 System Design The hybrid systems for village electrification were designed and meant for 24-hours supply. The project presented here was taking place from 1990 till the end of 1999. a distance of more than 50 km from the conventional grid.or PV-Generator up to 10 kW Diesel Genset. Table 4.1 Hybrid Systems in Inner Mongolia Applied Systems PV/Diesel Systems Wind/Diesel Systems Wind/Diesel Systems Different Hybrid Systems Place Inner Mongolia Inner Mongolia China Sea Remote Repeater Stations Battery Bank 300 W Wind-Generator PV/Wind Systems Household Systems 100 W PV-Generator Battery Bank Hybrid Village Systems Application System Configuration Wind. in some villages the availability . for the demonstration projects.2. wind farms or other prove. different hybrid systems were installed for village electrification.2.4 Project Examples 49 4. 8-24 kW Criteria for the selection of projects sites were the quality of wind and solar resources. It was observed that guiding principle for the operators was to minimise costs. repeater stations and as household systems. However. Hybrid Village Systems 4. proximity to the parent company of HDNTC. Huhhot. Through the executing company Hua De New Technology Company (HDNTC). the actual and projected demand for electricity. and the purchasing power of the respective county.1 gives an overview. 2003). and therefore it was in many villages avoided to run the diesel genset to save the additional costs for fuel.1 Baseline China and Inner Mongolia have been supporting the adaptation of renewable energies for rural electrification very strongly over recent years.2. 4. and was reviewed in 2000 (GTZ. Main focus was the transfer of technical knowledge. Table 4. Prolonged power cuts due to low availability of renewable resources were accepted. experiences showed that this assumption was wrong.2 Hybrid Systems in Inner Mongolia 4. It was assumed that the village governments/the operator were willing and able to pay for the additional diesel.2. as many project examples on SHS.

In the beginning. To account this. with all consequential costs. the tariffs were found not to cover the full costs of the systems.4 Project Examples 50 of electricity supply was reduced to 4 hours/day. Development of Electricity Demand The development of electricity consumption showed the expected effects. no differentiation is made according to the amount of power consumed or to the point of time of consumption. it was mostly the operator being responsible for the collection of the electricity fees. Here. In cases of major breakdowns and need for spare parts from Germany. but problematic due to the fixed tariff.51 €. The chosen operators were then trained by HDNTC with a Mobile Training Bus and an additional on-the-job-training during and after installation. and 34 Quoted Exchange Rate (5/2000): 4 Renminbi = 1 DM = 0. Operation and Maintenance of the Systems There was no agreed management system on the plants with the villages. the village governments and the households contributed with connection fees in the range of 350-1. The electricity fee was experienced to be paid regularly by the consumers. found to be sufficiently transparent and known by everybody concerned. More appropriate after-sales service is difficult. Households use typical appliances as irons. Electricity is mainly used for lighting.8 – 2. which was strongly accounted to the high acceptance of the system. in most cases the villages decided to choose the actual operator of their previously used diesel genset to operate the hybrid system. However. financial and operational management were separated in many villages for better control of revenues. however. The operator or the village government are responsible for maintenance of the systems and all expenditures on it. downtimes of one or two months may occur. according to the affordability by the users and the objective of operational cost recovery. HDNTC can be contacted via telephone and gives advises in cases of technical problems. radios and TV. which is in the range of 1. Later. This approach is pragmatic and very user-oriented. . Costs and Tariffs The village centres applied one fixed tariff. The tariff system was. progressive tariffs depending on the consumption or seasonal adjustment of tariffs to the operation costs would be helpful instead in order to reduce peak load demands. However. This shows clearly that the willingness to pay for the convenience of 24-hours electrification was not given. but only the costs of operation. however. leaving the total management performance much to individual perceptions and attitudes of the operator. since many villages are situated at far distances from the company. The main problem was that a transparent and comparable bookkeeping was not introduced. With the installation of the hybrid systems.4 Renminbi/kWh34 and was set by the village government after a test phase of one or two months. Subsidies between 60 to 80% of the initial investment were necessary.000 Renminbi per household. too. Due to high investment costs for the systems. the households were connected to an electricity meter to pay the consumption-based tariff. it seems that it was not understood that this intermittent mode of operation increased the risk of reduced technical lifetime of the battery bank.

Sometimes. experiences in Inner Mongolia were good in this regard. However. cost data and service time experienced indicate that PV/Wind systems are the most cost-effective option for decentralised household electricity supply from a point of view of electricity generating costs. The experiences showed that most people were willing to adapt to these regulation. and boarding schools apply washing machines. PV/Wind hybrid household systems in Inner Mongolia require high initial investment and can therefore only be afforded by higher income households. some families stayed without electricity after system breakdowns between two and five months.2. 4. Operation and Maintenance As in the case of village systems. In smaller villages as Yingen (200 inhabitants). But once these bulbs were broken. however.2 Hybrid Household Systems System Purchase and Costs Compared to other household systems. because a contract on maintenance was not concluded between HDNTC and the system owners. they were rarely replaced due to the high purchase costs. which obviously stroke poor families more. Nevertheless.3 Electricity Generating Costs from Different Sources. However. Because of this. electric water pumps are used for irrigation purposes. on the other hand. constant problem occurring was the balance of energy demand in the households: in some cases people wanted to use more appliances than the systems were designed for. Moreover.4 Project Examples 51 working equipment as drilling machines. . Development of Electricity Demand Due to the relatively high installed capacity of the hybrid systems. found to be very conscious on matters of energy saving by using energy saving bulbs in the beginning. The installed 10 kW Wind/Diesel system reached its capacity limit within two years. This training needed to be very comprehensive. In other regions. Families caused almost a quarter of system breakdowns due to lack of knowledge of the system and neglecting attitudes towards maintenance. Experiences here where. the demand was tried to be controlled by an increase of tariffs. Problems with the installed capacity were experienced in villages with a rather high number of inhabitants as Wuliji (600 inhabitants). this capacity problem was partly also met by extension of the system. dealers were engaged as mediators for HDNTC. An overview on cost details can be found in Annex D. disappointing. For the sale of the systems. This problem was met in Wuliji by extension of the system. local banks installed electrical warning systems. many electrical appliances can be used by the customers.2. the same capacity as above still met the electricity demand at the time of project review. which was technically easily feasible. Hospitals use X-ray equipment or sonographs. Households were. by optimisation of supply or through control of demand by adapting regulations on consumption behaviour. which makes the sale a risk for HDNTC being the creditor. the users were trained with the Mobile Training Bus of HDNTC. because families in Inner Mongolia are usually herdsmen and come rarely to urban areas. Most household systems were paid by instalments.

. direct economic benefits could also not be attributed to the application of PV/Wind household systems. the users were less satisfied.3 Aspects of System Dissemination The dissemination of hybrid systems by market mechanisms alone is the ultimate goal for the sustainability of the project presented here.e. Of course. The acceptance of the system was. China and Inner Mongolia provide relatively good conditions in this respect. especially compared to diesel gensets and their high costs for operation. however. For PV/Wind household systems. further dissemination without subsidisation and just by market mechanisms alone are stated to be feasible in the project review. 4. financing schemes need to be supportive. however. The experiences show that the village supply systems are a persuasive demonstration for a decentralised RE supply system not only for village inhabitants. for the village systems. because a market for renewable energy devices already exists. the circumstances with regard to i. the project review states scepticism due to high initial investment costs and considered subsidies to remain essential for their dissemination. and service provision to other families is not possible due to far distances between scattered households in Inner Mongolia. The installed capacity is simply to low for income generating activities. The users apparently tolerated downtimes for repairs without being negatively influenced on their opinion on the systems. however. but also for scattered households who feel motivated to buy a household system. found to be high. mainly due to the fact that the wind generator in the PV/Wind system has shown to be a bit temperamental. SHS have a higher degree of acceptance. However. The owners of household systems manage them by themselves and expand them according to their need and purchasing power.2.4 Project Examples 52 Miscellaneous Aspects As is usually the case with SHS. Compared to SHS.

5 Key success factors 53 5 Key success factors Sustainability describes a dynamic process. 2001). the provision of working capital is to be ensured. These models are presented in the following.e. on the other hand there is the sale of electricity service approach. Moreover. and direct equipment sale has proven to be difficult already in the case of SHS. which has been successfully implemented in some countries (i.1 Organisation Decision on the distribution model The World Bank distinguishes two major distribution or sales models to be applied in developing countries (ESMAP. For this. For hybrid systems the approach of direct equipment sales is adequate if an appropriate credit or leasing system is set up. Neither will individual poor households be able to purchase hybrid home system on cash basis. Another option for equipment sales is leasing. and this is likely to remain so in the future due to the fact that credit is rarely available in rural areas and is just provided to consumers with secure occupations. the responsibility for maintenance and repair is transferred to the purchaser. Predominating option is cash sales. Direct Equipment Sales: The approach of direct equipment sales commonly refers to sale of complete systems rather than components. thus. as is in the case of SHS. important aspects of organisation. although it involves less investment than hybrid systems for an individual consumer. operation and maintenance. 5. Sustainability needs also to be ensured by implementing the system in a way that guarantees a sustainable self-contained operation after project implementation. nor can poor communities commonly afford hybrid systems for electrification of villages. 2001): on the one hand there is the equipment-sale approach. Leasing is an option of lower risk for the dealers since it is considerably less complicated to retrieve the equipment in case the consumers neglect their duty to pay the monthly leasing rates. Dominican Republic). and therefore it is not enough to ensure whether hybrid systems are likely to be a sustainable option for rural electrification. for the adaptation of leasing. financing. Ideally. funding of the dealers shall be provided by local banks. The systems can be purchased either on cash or credit basis. ownership. equipment dealers usually lack financial background to offer credit to local consumers. the key success factors in approaching a sustainable electrification project with hybrid systems shall be discussed in this section. and capacity building will be discussed on the basis of a literature review. Investment costs are simply too high for hybrid systems. demand assessment and management. The approach of direct equipment sales therefore demands to make funds available to dealers in order to give them the possibility to provide credit to rural population or to create a leasing model. To achieve this. which can be sup- . With the approach of selling equipment directly to individuals. but which has not yet gained major importance due to the same reason of insufficient working capital on the side of the dealers as in case of credit based purchase (ESMAP.

R. but also demands high involvement by donor organisations. Recent approaches. Identification of Responsibility For the electrification of a rural village. As an option or in addition. Criterion for decision is either - the least grant necessary for a predetermined number of connections. i. however. The Global Environmental Facility (GEF) recommends to task managers of single electrification projects to experiment with both approaches individually in order to then decide for the most appropriate one (GEF. 2001). depending on the actual local situation. is the fact that in many countries electricity service provision is restricted to only national utility. the operational structure for the mini-grids to be established. Problematic for the adaptation of this approach is the fact that in remote areas electricity service companies are rarely existent. Sale of Electricity Service: This approach is called “Dispersed Area Concession Model” by the World Bank and gives an electricity service company exclusive right to provide electricity service to a certain area by concession. the electricity service company may receive a subsidy per user. both local and foreign companies are bidding for the right to provide the electricity service exclusively. 2003).5 Key success factors 54 ported by international organisations as the World Bank. The winning company then constructs the energy provision system including distribution lines. General problem in the approach to provide electricity services through private companies or businessman. however. Common experiences in developing countries especially with SHS show that if . responsibility for the power plant is important with regard to theft and vandalism. 2001). Users are provided electricity after paying a certain connection fee and through paying a monthly cost-based tariff. This approach. or the maximum number of concessions possible with a given grant (Tomkins. 2000). although being probably even more financially sustainable. therefore requiring new political regulations (ESMAP. In an ideal model. It is assumed that this approach is likely to open up and strengthen markets for decentralised electrification and therefore result in an increase of equipment sales (ESMAP..e. The decision will therefore always be an individual one. focus rather on supporting private providers of electricity supply and to support them with subsidies in order to ease access to electricity for poor population. are very important for the mini-grid in several respects: Firstly. questions of ownership and responsibility. In order to make electricity affordable to even the poorest among the rural population. the isolation of these rural areas makes them highly unattractive for substantial private participation at any level of subsidy (Tomkins. Basic problem of all projects applying renewable energies is the fact that knowledge and therefore necessary infrastructure is rarely existent in rural areas. The question for hybrid systems is which of these models to favour. credits can also be made available to consumers by such banks. In fact. is not only comparatively time-consuming. The alternative is then to build capacity among small local companies through business advisory services and business development.). however. R.

Therefore. battery bank and charge controller. however. the second approach of creating co-operatives or user groups. cannot be given here. but also with other renewable energy technologies as SHS. Sheriff. clear responsibility for the financial management of a plant is necessary in order to ensure the payment of bills from the customers. Clear assignment of responsibility helps a lot to avoid problems in this regard. 2000a): Either the hybrid power plant and the corresponding mini-grid are installed by a private entrepreneur. The decision on the appropriate organisational model is difficult. a clear knowledge on responsibility is essential for operation and maintenance of the system. The appropriate solutions will vary strongly between countries and even among different villages in the same region. Implementing sustainable maintenance structures Experiences not only with hybrid systems. be avoided to press from outside village inhabitants to form such organisations.. Important issues to be addressed with regard to sustainable maintenance structures include the following: Identification and Training of Technicians for System Operation and Maintenance: The identification of technicians within the rural community is a crucial and important task in setting up a maintenance structure. especially the crucial parts of a hybrid system. F. take care of operation and maintenance. then theft and vandalism can become severe problems and compromise the whole success of the electrification project. because it is strongly matter of their trust among each other and of their ability to work together whether such an approach will be successful. prove the importance of sustainable maintenance structures.5 Key success factors 55 the question of responsibility is not solved.. Not even costly and well-designed systems with high quality components can reliably provide electricity without regular and proper maintenance. and a general recommendation. especially with regard to leadership in order to avoid failures and severe problems. and he will by his own interest prevent the plant from theft and vandalism. even slight problems with the system can become major issues and lead to complete breakdown of electricity supply. depending on the specific local conditions. This approach is very common in developing countries and has a strong advantage by committing the village’s population to the project. and ensure the payment of bills. Pneumaticos. S. Without appropriate maintenance structures. Applying renewable energies for rural electrification is a new and innovative approach. - The World Bank distinguishes two different scenarios (ESMAP. which one to prefer in the case of hybrid systems. the organisational structure must be set up very carefully. Then all responsibility is left to him. If private entrepreneurs are chosen for the . D. Moreover. Secondly.. meaning a co-operative or a user group. since training requirements are high and complex and need high involvement especially with regard to maintenance. Failure rates of these components can be reduced from three every year to one every two years if just inspection and maintenance are carried out carefully (Turcotte. It should. and knowledge about maintenance is usually very limited. Moreover. The other possibility is some form of village ownership. In general. is rather difficult in the case of hybrid systems. Thirdly. require regular maintenance. 2001). one has to take into account that this organisational solution brings with it higher risks for the local community.

illness. having been educated at school recently. just having graduated and looking for work. Ideally. and people with highest capability as well as respect among other village inhabitants can be chosen in the end.5 Key success factors 56 provision of electricity. these centres should be financially self-sufficient and not need financial assistance. M. which have the necessary potential for economic development and are in need of such a system. can only be achieved if these centres serve a substantial number of villages. These people then can be asked in case technical problems occur. has shown to be problematic. For hybrid systems. but to involve as many interested people as possible (ESMAP. Cosgrove-Davies. which cannot be solved by the operator individually. which are ideally situated in the vicinity of the centre.. the main objective is not to have high staff turnover on this position. in case the chosen operator is at times not available in the future due to i. the question of maintenance centres is difficult. 2000a). 2000a). then others can take over seamlessly. . L. Not only has the potentially higher degree of respect and acceptance of elder people within rural communities played a role here. 2000a). if outside organisations take over responsibility for guiding the implementation process. however. This. 1996).e. Also the engagement of young people as system operators. Otherwise. a pool of potential later technical experts can be created. Maintenance centres can serve this function of guidance and technical knowledge backup. When deciding for a system operator. People need to be involved in the whole implementation process for a deeper understanding of the power plant. A. This remoteness can become a problem for hybrid systems. By this.. the World Bank recommends not to decide for one or two system operators in the very beginning of the project implementation process.. Training of system operators is a long-term process and cannot be performed with in a couple of days. Hybrid systems are commonly implemented for electrification of remote areas. Establishment of Regional Maintenance Centres: System operators should optimally have contact persons with higher technical expertise (ESMAP. then the choice of the technicians is of course to be left to them. Moreover. too (ESMAP. as for example in a project at Galapagos Islands. Young people tend to be more open to changes and are more likely to move away to urban areas after a while (ESMAP. A rule of thumb from the application of SHS in the Dominican Republic is that systems should not be further away than 50 km from a service centre (Cabraal. the approach of assigning the responsibility for the system to elder persons has proved to be recommendable. For this. and the implementing organisation needs to monitor success after project implementation. For the application of hybrid systems it therefore seems to be essential to choose areas with a considerable number of potential communities. Schaeffer. since maintenance centres in nearby urban areas are not available and therefore need to be erected. 2000b).

warrants the higher financial burden for the consumer. maintenance and overhauling costs for equipment replacement Finding the most appropriate way for covering these costs is a difficult matter. as is described in section 5.35 However. which option for rural electrification is to be chosen. however. the World Bank estimates that about 15 percent of the disposable income is usually spent on all such energy services (ESMAP. Affordability of electrical appliances and electricity services is difficult to determine and closely linked to energy demand assessment. But whether people can actually afford electrification is a different question of equal importance and cannot be answered by simple investigation of willingness-topay. which involve rather high investment and electricity generating costs. the effects of this fact on affordability are to be taken into account.and Ability-to-pay for the electricity service of rural population Investigating the consumer’s willingness-to-pay is one of the key issues to be determined prior to any electrification project. Investigating the consumer’s willingness-to-pay is commonly done on the basis of questionnaires. Prior to the decision. if applied costs for operation. it needs to be found out whether the demand for 24-hours electrification as can be provided by hybrid systems is given and whether the economic potential. which these systems certainly offer. which are likely to be covered by consumers themselves. Common approaches usually investigate the current expenditure of rural households on kerosene.and ability-to-pay is of major importance especially in the case of hybrid systems. failed. Investigating both willingness. but also the operational costs often used to be covered to a large extent by subsidies. pure investigation of consumer’s willingness-to-pay has been found to be shortsighted. 2001). .4).5. It is to be found out how much the potential consumers are willing to invest to get access to and to pay for the provision of electricity services in order to determine the investment and operation costs. disposable batteries for radios and rechargeable car-batteries and the costs for their recharging. In areas where steady income is not guaranteed.2 Financing Willingness. As a rule of thumb. willing to pay for it. Based on the objective to provide electricity to even the poorest among the poor. candles. This approach. It is obvious that rural population is likely to be interested in electrification and. Otherwise it was experienced that consumers op- 35 Examples can be found at the World Bank (ESMAP. 2000a: Annex 5. Correct pricing of electricity – setting up a sustainable tariff structure Correct pricing of electricity is probably the most important success factor to be described here.5 Key success factors 57 5. not only the implementation or connection costs. 2000a): capital costs for the implementation of the mini-grid project fuel costs for the diesel genset. Operational costs should be covered by consumers themselves from the beginning. Costs for hybrid systems can be broken down to the following aspects (ESMAP. thus.

In summary. however. which makes it an additional test of user’s demand and preferences concerning electrification. the use of power during offpeak times is encouraged additionally. resulting in unexpected high bills. R. as World Bank (ESMAP. with diesel gensets the purchase of diesel fuel can be reduced or stopped. W. Moreover. a new approach applies prepayment meters and is usually called “Fee-for-service”. this method is of special interest because it attenuates a disadvantage of these technologies compared to diesel gensets-based electrification: if consumers temporarily do not have money to afford electricity. thus awarding energy-saving consumer behaviour through lower energy bills. the option of energy-based tariffs is applied in cases where there is a reasonable number of potential consumers and where ability and willingness to pay allow the application of this rather sophisticated tariff system. is one rule. Dubois. discourage investment. Setting up a sustainable tariff structure cannot be done by following a single and proven formula for success. 36 Personal Comment given by Mr. However.5 Key success factors 58 posed to later tariff increases to fully cover operational costs themselves. billing and money collecting. Energy-based tariffs: The approach of applying energy-based tariffs is probably the most equitable one. conventional energy meters do not limit consumption. in order not to undermine the other users’ paying morality.L.. 2003). et al. For electrification projects applying renewable energies. whether money is available at that time or not. Different approaches exist.. need to be paid off. Finally. However. fee-for-service is as well very costly with regard to equipment and support service. 2000a) is presented in the following.. which often led to financial difficulties and even to failures of electrification projects. 2003. which needs to be applied to any decentralised rural electrification project. Renewable energy devices. which can be bought by the consumers and with which the consumer purchases the possibility to consume a certain amount of electricity. This approach uses magnetic cards or tokens. less welleducated consumers might have difficulties in understanding the meter and how to read it. on July. and a contribution to connection costs for households can be justified as well. however. If time-of-day meters are applied. and each of them can be applied successfully depending on the specific circumstances. energy meters require considerable additional investment and are therefore not suitable in small-sized mini-grids with small numbers of consumers. KfW staff member. Moreover. With fee-for-service. In order to avoid problems associated with meter reading. a more constant flow of operational income can be expected. An overview about potential solutions as described by the World Bank in (ESMAP. This tariff allows appropriate charging according to the real individual consumption by applying an energy meter. 1998). the emphasis on poverty alleviation by subsidising can restrict sustainable market expansion. and hamper business development as was experienced in China (Wallace. 2000a) and KfW36 both strongly recommend: those who do not pay their monthly bills should be consequently disconnected from electricity supply. Common for all tariff structures. It is therefore widely agreed nowadays that grants and subsidies should only be given on implementation costs. . 7th. The latter subsidy on connection costs is proposed just to be partial by the World Bank (Tomkins. and therefore it might come out that wealthier households consume that much that minigrids with limited capacity are overloaded.

In comparison to energy-based tariffs the power-based tariff is easier to understand for consumers and requires less effort for payment collection.1 gives an overview about the key issues addressed so far being important with regard to distribution. Moreover. while the second approach of power-based tariffs is likely to be better applicable in mini-grids with a concise number of consumers and well-established social structures. Roman Ritter. electrification projects will most likely apply a mixture of both tariffs. as was experienced for example in Indonesia (Preiser. reliability and accuracy of electrical load limiters is often poor.38 37 38 Personal Comment Jörg Baur.. . but on the maximum amount of power likely to be consumed. power consumption can be limited electrically by regulating the current into the home. In practice. This approach obviously depends much on the honesty of the consumers and is disadvantageous in this respect since it does not apply control mechanisms. et al. this approach generally restricts availability of electricity to consumers and. in Eschborn/Germany on August 14th. which he is not allowed to exceed and for which he monthly pays a constant amount of money. Generally. reliable load limiters are mostly less expensive than reliable energy meters. Energy-based tariffs using energy meters are applied for well-income consumers and businesses as restaurants. GTZ. while power-based tariffs can be applied to other users. an oral or written agreement with the consumer limits his consumption to a predetermined level according to his appliances.37 Figure 5. it can be stated that the first approach of energy-based tariffs is well applicable in mini-grids of a substantial size with a considerable number of consumers. In the most simple variation. overloading of the system can be avoided and every user gets the same possibility of access to electricity services. Source: Own illustration. To avoid this problem. furthermore. However. organisation and financing. 2000). Moreover. K.5 Key success factors 59 Power-based tariffs: This tariff-scheme is not based on metering of actual electricity consumption.. 2003. However. leaves more potential to fraud by bypassing the limiter.

In order to exploit the full potential a hybrid system offers. Most likely approach. demands high donor involvement Public power utility is usually not interested much in decentralised rural electrification due to high costs. Other important aspects on capacity building are to be discussed in the following. the potential profit is too low for involvement.5 Key success factors 60 Rural Electrification with Hybrid Village Systems Sales Model Distribution Model Cash Credit Leasing Existing Utility Service Model Communitybased Provider Open-Market Provider System Owner Buyer Buyer Dealer Energy Service Company (ESCo) Operator Private Entrepreneur Village Co-operative ESCo Maintenance Operator Local Technician ESCo Energy-based Tariff Power-based Tariff Tariff Energy Meters Agreement Fee-for-Service Load Limiters Applicable for Large Mini-grids Small Mini-grids Evaluation Unlikely due to low profits. thus subsidies necessary. education on demand-side management is advisable. Aspects as the education of technicians are part of capacity building. For other private providers.3 Capacity Building Capacity Building is a major aspect for the success of any project implemented in developing countries.1 Hybrid Village Systems: Distribution Steps 5. but have already been outlined above. . thus needing subsidies. Education on Demand-side management Hybrid systems are installed at certain capacities and are therefore limited. Figure 5.

Common for the use of electricity in developing countries is the occurrence of a relatively high peak demand during evening hours. which do not necessarily have to take place in the evening. and can be included in an agreement. as setting up business plans. A successful project for rural electrification with hybrid systems should prepare the ground for economic development. The issue of safety should be addressed because for many areas electricity is a new commodity. This policy is best to be established in a written manner. Firstly. then rural population should not be left alone with the system. If consumers are not aware of it. a policy encouraging the payment of bills by disconnecting non-paying consumers from electricity supply needs to be established. when for example lights are switched on everywhere in the village. 2000a). Two major possibilities are worth mentioning. Demand-side management also refers to the use of energy-saving appliances such as energy saving bulbs. i. Consumers must be aware that theft of power. Especially in the case of household systems. Awareness Rising as a Means of Market Development The issue of awareness rising refers to making public hybrid systems as an option for rural electrification. this question is of major importance. etc.5 Key success factors 61 Demand-side management in the first place refers to consumption habits. This reduces electricity consumption considerably. and therefore helps to better exploit the potential of a hybrid system. Other issues to be addressed in consumer education include theft of power and safety.e. which is to be signed by the consumers. This is especially important in order not to raise unreasonable expectations. through bypassing energy meters or current limiters. will not be tolerated. This has to be explained to consumers in order to make the project a financial success. Education on Business Planning If the potential of hybrid systems is to be fully exploited. It is therefore important to make consumers aware of the limitations of the system. This agreement describes explicitly all obligations for the potential consumers. the limitation of their electricity supply system can lead to consumer’s dissatisfaction and frustration. Population in rural areas in developing countries are commonly sceptic towards unknown approaches in the first place. which cannot be obtained by electrification alone. and electrical lines and appliances should be handled with caution (ESMAP. If markets for hybrid systems are to be developed. then awareness rising is essential. Education of Consumers on Obligations and Behaviour Another aspect in educating consumers deals with the obligations related to the connection to an electricity supply system. and prefer to be convinced by being informed about the possibilities and the functioning of hybrid systems visually. Additionally. 2000a). ironing. i. Hybrid systems strongly need accompanying with regard to economic development by teaching about important aspects of business founding. an example can be found at the World Bank (ESMAP.e. These include especially financial obligations: the understanding of the need to pay for receiving electricity is not to be taken for granted. during daytime. the installed capacity of a hybrid system may soon be insufficient to meet the demand. project examples are an important aspect for the dissemination of knowledge on hybrid systems. but also for larger systems in case of village electrification. and to guide them in using it correctly by performing activities. The example of Inner Mongo- . If other appliances are used at the same time.

but are due to rather frequent failures of components’ integration. oversizing of the renewable energy generator is not an option. D.5 Key success factors 62 lia. Pneumaticos.4 Technical Aspects Main technical aspects of hybrid systems have already been discussed in chapter 2. This fact increases the importance of pilot projects for awareness rising. where project examples in rural administrative villages contributed to the dissemination of especially household systems. project examples should not be seen as the end of dissemination activities. include (ESMAP. S.. since these systems are rather sophisticated. in Eschborn/Germany. S. this issue is a major challenge. F. the regional administration or others. For hybrid systems. However. Sheriff. The trained staff can then multiply the obtained information by teaching the interested public about the possibilities of hybrid systems. 2003. But real market development can just take place through replication (Richards. Key requirement from a technical point of view is simplicity and reliability (Turcotte. 2001). However. proves this (GTZ. he will tell this to his friends and neighbours and make them aware of the possibility to use hybrid systems for electrification. D. 5.. the other villages are likely to get interested as well. especially with regard to maintenance requirements..2. which can be addressed by these organisations. since it increases system costs especially in the case of photovoltaic-based systems remarkably (Turcotte..4. et al.. 2001): o assessment of electricity demand prior to the project o provision of credit guarantees or cash sales for group lending o independent operation of the hybrid system o financing Generally. multiplier organisations can play an important role. the dissemination of hybrid systems can be promoted. it can be stated that for awareness rising in developing countries the word-ofmouth propaganda is the most effective way. Experts see the point of reliability as a major hurdle for the adaptation of hybrid systems in developing countries. pilot projects indeed can contribute to the sale of the technology.. Other aspects.39 - 39 Personal Comment given by Jörg Baur. GTZ. E. on August 14th.. If someone owns a hybrid household system and feels satisfied with it. 1999). For the purpose of developing markets.. By informing and training the staff of multiplier organisations as local non-governmental organisations (NGOs). Most technical problems observed with hybrid system are not result of failures of single components itself. F. The same phenomenon applies to hybrid systems for village electrification: if the neighbour village owns one and feels satisfied. 2001). Key success factors from a technical point of view are the following: The design of hybrid systems should always seek to maximise utilisation of local resources in order to keep the use diesel fuel low. Sheriff. Local institutions or NGOs can play an even greater role than just capacity building. . too. Secondly. 2003). Pneumaticos. they are rather a tool.

the electricity demand is likely to increase substantially. two different situations need to be distinguished (ESMAP. which is lower than the system’s lifetime. making adequate load projections is frequently a very difficult task. the potential of hybrid systems to economic development is comparatively high. which describes major technical aspects in detail (ESMAP. while underestimation of load demand is likely to entail frustration on poor system performance due to excessive consumption. two different aspects are of major importance: Demand Assessment and Projections The assessments of current demand for electricity as well as projections of future growth in demand are essential. The approach of simply asking households for their potential electricity demand is not sufficient. 2000a).2. As described in chapter 3. 2000a). Therefore. then this period has to be accounted for growth projections. 5. the optimal system performance is closely linked to an accurate demand assessment. not only the actual demand for electricity. For this reason. for appropriate comparison certain restrictions apply for the surveyed area: The surveyed area should have a similar type of electricity service.1. already-electrified regions with similar characteristics (ESMAP. By doing so. the World Bank proposes to assess electricity demand by surveying adjoining. but also the history of load growth can be determined and taken into consideration. as the World Bank describes (ESMAP. However.4. and may soon lead to dissatisfaction of consumers if future growth is not accurately forecasted in advance. However. and the corresponding financial burden in terms of the monthly bills for electricity supply cannot be overviewed by them. then the growth in demand during the whole lifetime has to be accounted. The knowledge of so far non-electrified households on their real demand for electricity is very limited. As the project examples in chapter 4 prove. - . 2000a). The assessment of not only actual demand for electricity.5 Assessment of Electricity Demand and Potential for Renewable Energies In order to guarantee optimal sizing of hybrid systems and the application of the most suitable hybrid combinations. For a hybrid system. meaning 24-hour power supply in the case of hybrid systems. Demand in the surveyed region is not kept down by applying consumption restrictions due to limited installed capacity. which expects grid-based electrification in medium-term perspective.5 Key success factors 63 For information on key technical issues to be considered when erecting mini-grids in developing countries in general. 2000a): If the system is to be installed in a region.4. which is likely not to be connected to conventional grid during the lifetime of the system. but also of potential future growth is of major importance for hybrid systems. it is here referred to the Mini-Grid Design Manual published by the World Bank. If the system is to be installed in a region. Similar tariffs are applied in the surveyed regions as are planned for the new project. The relevance results from the fact that over sizing of the hybrid system inherently increases the overall system costs.

.. i.e. This is essential for choosing the appropriate system design and to quantify the share of the renewable energy resource for electricity generation. Moreover. This then needs to be changed in a way that allows private operators to supply electricity to regions without electricity. ideally through policy statements and direct support of respective initiatives. Project developers report from the example of Morocco that the promise to extend the conventional grid to non-electrified areas had the ef- . subsidies on diesel fuel or kerosene need to be lowered or fully eliminated in order to decrease competitive disadvantages of renewable energy technologies. legalisation of rural energy markets In many countries legislation does not allow for private operators to provide electricity services. G. value-added taxes or other taxes. Elimination of Tax and Duty Barriers The introduction of renewable energy technologies in many countries faces obstacles from unfair import duties. The World Bank states that no project on electrification has ever succeeded without the backing of political will (ESMAP. can do much to obtain information on demand and future growth (Barnes. the potential of wind power and/or the extent of insolation need to be investigated prior to project implementation. which require converse occurrence of insolation and wind power in order to produce electricity on a 24-hours basis. which need to be eliminated in order to make the option of renewable energy. 5. Three key issues can be identified (ESMAP. Especially in the case of PV/Wind hybrid systems. 1998). D. 2001): Defining the Role of the Government The central and local governments need to be involved from the very beginning and to demonstrate commitment to decentralised electrification. Investigation of the Potential for Hybrid Systems for Electrification In order to assess the potential for hybrid systems for electrification of a certain area. competitive. Establishing electricity laws. since this is traditionally the exclusive right of national or regional utility. and supporting institutions might need to be established.6 Political Factors The political framework is a major issue for decentralised electrification as well.5 Key success factors 64 An important role in assessing energy demand plays the population itself: involvement of rural population. and therefore it is tried here to state the main political framework conditions for decentralised hybrid system projects. 2001). accurate assessment of these resources is important. Foley. Sector reforms may be necessary. and with it hybrid systems. a rural electrification committee. A general problem in developing countries concerning the role of government results from unrealistic promises during election campaigns.

and ongoing advances in technology (Turcotte. For the project developers it is therefore important when addressing the governments to intensively inform them about the benefits of rural electrification with decentralised systems. Decentralised electrification is often seen as a second class electrification. S. Sheriff. growing demand for electricity in developing countries.. D. and general characteristics of electrification.. Fraunhofer ISE – Club für ländliche Elektrifizierung. Pneumaticos. 2003.5 Key success factors 65 fect that decentralised solutions were not accepted among rural population. 40 Personal Comment given by Dirk-Uwe Sauer.40 People rather remain without electrification for some more years than to be electrified with other systems.. because they fear then to be ignored when the grid connection becomes possible. at Intersolar Fair in Freiburg/Germany. 2001). . with hybrid systems. 28th. on June. i. F. and grid connection is preferred strongly.e. Main issues to be addressed include environmental concerns for fossil fuel powered sources.

is as well unfavourable not only from an environmental. on the one hand by unrealistically high expectations on side of the population. these issues are major hurdles and require attention during the planning of hybrid system projects and high donor involvement through subsidies and the development of maintenance structures. thus. on the other hand due to problems with reliability of the systems. The assessment of sustainability of hybrid systems. socio-economic and economic issues. hybrid systems are likely to be more beneficial than are other technologies. Common practice to meet the problem of rural electrification in developing countries is the use of diesel gensets. As is the case always for the application of renewable energies as PV and wind in developing countries. however. and that expectations associated to decentralised rural electrification are likely to be met. use locally available resources and offer a high potential with regard to local independence compared to grid extension and diesel gensets. Objective of this work. main advantages include reliable and continuous energy supply and. which has lead to customer dissatisfaction in many cases. This approach. It was argued that in order to fully exploit the potential. since they are less dependent on external interference. however. rural electrification is a problematic issue. However. which hybrid . Renewable energies are an environmental benign solution for rural electrification. are questions of financing and maintenance. and to identify key success factors to improve the sustainability of a hybrid rural electrification project. thus. Modern approaches. Despite these numerous advantages. from a socio-economic perspective. Main strengths of hybrid systems from an environmental perspective include low emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants compared to conventional methods for rural electrification. however. In many cases renewable energies have failed to meet the expectations of rural population. Problematic. The main problem for the application of renewable energies in rural electricity supply. and have several additional benefits related to their use. The assessment revealed that from a point of view of environmental and socio-economic sustainability. a good potential for economic development. therefore. the application of renewable energies for rural electrification has not yet been the success story it was expected to be. was and is the intermittent supply of power due to the fluctuating nature of the resources. This problem is recently met with the application of hybrid systems.e. address the challenge of rural electrification with decentralised energy supply systems applying renewable energies. The extension of the conventional grid is often economically not feasible for remote rural areas. did not result in a clear yes concerning their application.. and is integral part especially for furtherance of economic progress. since diesel gensets usually cannot evolve the full potential of electrification for rural development. The assessment was performed in comparative terms relative to other solutions for rural electricity supply by using an indicator set developed within this work. and can as well be undesirable from a point of view of environmental sustainability. however. was to generally assess the sustainability of hybrid systems for rural electrification with regard to environmental. renewable energies. i. therefore.6 Summary and Conclusions 66 6 Summary and Conclusions Rural electrification is commonly seen as essential part for the development of rural areas in developing countries. but also from a socio-economic and economic perspective.

however. the assessment of electricity demand now and projected to the future. which make them comparable to the conventional grid especially with regard to the quality of electricity supply. or the implementation of an appropriate tariff system.6 Summary and Conclusions 67 systems certainly can offer especially with regard to economic development. . since economic benefits not just depend on the availability of energy. and they might then ideally be chosen for those villages in the region. the results allow the statement that hybrid systems can be a sustainable option. hybrid systems require a holistic approach towards electrification. the indicator set developed here might provide a framework for the assessment whether environmental and socio-economic surpluses attributable to hybrid systems justify the high investment and the necessary effort in setting up maintenance structures. Despite their advantages. Moreover. capacity building as an essential condition to create the appropriate framework for economic development and for correct use of the hybrid systems. This paper has also identified key factors to successfully apply hybrid systems in developing countries. They might therefore be applied within the context of whole electrification programmes for remote rural areas as an integral part of a set of different methods. and political framework conditions and several technical aspects. Hybrid systems are here assessed to be a promising approach for decentralised rural electrification. meanwhile being more environmentally benign. issues of financing as the investigation of willingness. and the potential to meet the demand with renewable energies for an appropriate system design. a certain economic development should already be taking place in the area to be electrified. Hybrid systems.and ability-to-pay for electricity service. should and cannot be seen as the ultimate solution for rural electrification in developing countries. certain framework conditions need to be established. Main issues to be addressed include organisational issues with decision on appropriate distribution models and the implementation of sustainable maintenance schemes. but also on other conditions favouring economic development. for which the preconditions and circumstances allow to expect the full evolvement of the system’s potential. Although the assessment here was performed in rather global terms and although therefore in individual cases the assessment might be a different one. For an analysis of respective projects.

It is assumed here that (fictitious) 10% of all households in the village are rich.60 0. etc. The base load is of major importance for the design of the diesel genset in a hybrid system.26 Annual Electricity Consumption [kWh/a] 43.30 876. with village sizes from 30 to 300 households. former KfW staff member. the base load of the villages is calculated. Erich Geis.Annex A: Electricity Demand and System Design 68 Annex A: Electricity Demand and System Design A.8 7. during a telephone interview on August.) and public consumption (public lighting.00 Energy Saving Lamp TV (Colour) Radio Refrigerator Total 6 1 1 1 10 100 10 300 470 In a next step. schools. the peak load for different village sizes are calculated. while 90% are standard households.41 The figures adopted here are mainly based on data from (Baur. health care. This is accounted by adding 40% excess consumption on the consumption of the individual households.70 219. J.1 Calculation of Electricity Demand For the calculation.18 0. 2003. . It is assumed that energy saving lighting is applied within the electrification project.8 43. Moreover. 2000).. since the diesel 41 Personal Recommendation Mr.1 Standard Household Characteristics Equipment Energy Saving Lamp TV (b/w) Radio Total Number Capacity [W] 4 1 1 10 20 10 70 Daily Hours of Operation [h/d] 3 6 2 Daily Electricity Consumption [kWh/d] 0.12 0.2 Rich Household Characteristics Equipment Number Capacity [W] Daily Hours of Operation [h/d] 3 6 2 8 Daily Electricity Consumption [kWh/d] 0.20 Annual Electricity Consumption [kWh/a] 65. 22nd.00 7.00 1168. two different types of households with different consumption behaviour are distinguished: standard households and rich households. Additional electricity consumption results from commercial (shops.40 3.02 2.9 Table A.02 0. handicraft businesses.3 94. Table A. etc.).12 0.

7 46.0 25478. . Table A.9 28309.4 54.6 22.3 58.5 7. the load caused by the adaptation of refrigerators is defined as the base load.0 14.0 17.42 To simplify matters.0 202.4 40.6 16.0 13.1 19816.0 170.1 31.3 36802.4 9.2 20.0 135.6 21232.5 10.0 60.0 85.0 60.9 135.9 69.5 81.0 54. Institut für Solare Energieversorgungstechnik (ISET).5 5.0 16.0 12.5 72.4 21.5 193.4 15.0 7.0 34.5 26893.5 20.3 11323.3 27.2 14154.0 153.0 8.2 16985.5 56618.0 130. during a telephone interview on August 20th.0 19.6 10.0 65.0 17.0 48126.0 15.0 110.0 90.0 9.5 9.0 250.0 225.0 6.8 9908.8 18.3 Peak and Base Loads for Different Village Sizes Number of Households Daily [kWh/d] 23.0 150.0 140.8 12739.0 3.2 8.5 90.5 24063.6 116.0 75.0 100.8 42.0 95.0 120. 2003.0 48.0 55.2 70773.2 62.4 28.0 35. Strauß.0 3.9 Peak Load Annual [kWh/a] 8492.0 160.0 49541.0 85.6 18401.6 85.7 15570.5 180.0 26.5 25.0 76.0 45.0 99.0 200.8 12.0 22.2 39633.5 45.1 22647.2 42464.7 77.8 108.0 38.9 38.1 174.0 4.1 131.8 31.0 11.2 33.0 144.2 14.0 5.0 42 Personal Comment Mr.4 31140.0 49.0 126.0 Annual [kWh/a] 2628 3066 3504 3942 4380 4818 5256 5694 6132 6570 7008 7446 7884 8322 8760 9636 10512 11388 12264 13140 14016 14892 15330 17520 19710 21900 Standard Rich Total 27.5 Base Load (Refrigerators) Daily [kWh/d] 7.0 40.0 175.5 225.3 shows the results for different village sizes.0 50.0 58.3 33971.5 54. Table A.8 42.5 36.5 6.0 157.0 70.0 30.0 65.8 73.3 93.5 50.7 155.0 117.6 36.1 45295.8 63696.0 31.Annex A: Electricity Demand and System Design 69 genset should normally be designed to satisfy the base demand.3 124.1 100.5 4.5 63.0 67.0 13.0 80.5 8.0 40.8 24.0 108.

R. R. 43 Deutsche Gesellschaft für Sonnenenergie Average Site in Trapani.85 In Winter: 0. It is obvious that the design of the systems here is therefore rather rough and that real application of hybrid systems would require accurate system design with the help of optimisation models as for example TALCO (Technical and Least Cost Optimisation. typically between 0. 2003. Italy. Strauss.9 84928. C.9 Norm Radiation = 1.3 Designed to meet the base load Wind Generator Annual Full Load Hours: 2. Sheriff.0 27.2 kWh/m2/d Temperature Correction In Summer: 0.4 Main Modelling Assumptions PV Modules Annual Global Radiation: 1. Berger.5 270. Source Meteosat 2 Remarks/Source 43 During a telephone interview on August 21st.0 275.. D.3 232.2 System Design The design of hybrid systems here is based on personal comments by project developers and literature review (Haselhuhn.0 300. (Homer.2 Base Load (Refrigerators) Daily [kWh/d] 66.2 kWh/m2/d In December: 2. it seems sufficient.664 kWh/m /a Radiation on a surface with 10° incline In June: 7. 2003)) or HOMER (Evaluation of design options.. However..5 30.0 26280.190 h/a Efficiency: 0. for a comparative assessment.0 72. Pneumaticos..000 h/a Miscellaneous Energy losses due to inverter and battery: 24% (Haselhuhn. 2003)). 2003.. F. 2002) Own assumption.Annex A: Electricity Demand and System Design 70 Number of Households Daily Peak Load Annual [kWh/a] 77850. 2001) Personal Recommendation Mr. C. good site Equals 6 h/d Own assumption. ISET44 Personal Recommendation given by Claudia Hemmerle. Berger.. For the system design. Hemmerle. Hemmerle. F. the following basic assumptions are made: Table A..7 247.0 A. . 2002). (FHG ISE. F.35 (Turcotte.0 Annual [kWh/a] 24090..25 – 0.. S. 44 During a telephone interview on August 20th.000 W/m2 Diesel Genset Annual operating time in Mini-Grid: 2.0 Standard Rich Total [kWh/d] 213.

1/3 PV Own assumption Common design for cost optimisation Based on these assumptions. the calculations lead to the following system designs for the different village sizes.5 Share of Technologies for Electricity Generation PV/Diesel Hybrid Systems Share: 80 % PV. 20% Diesel Genset Remarks/Source Common design for cost optimisation PV generator is designed to meet 50% of the electricity Personal Recommendation Mr. 20% Diesel Genset PV/Wind Hybrid Systems Share: 2/3 Wind. 45 Given at Intersolar Fair in Freiburg/Germany on June 28th. the following share on electricity generation was attributed to the different generators: Table A.Annex A: Electricity Demand and System Design 71 For the different hybrid systems. 45 demand in winter Energiebau GmbH Wind/Diesel Hybrid Systems Share: 80 % Wind. 2003. . Georg Weingarten.

3 7926.0 Wind Capacity at 2000 h/a [kW] 3.4 8.1 2.7 15098.4 Wind Capacity at 2000 h/a [kW] 4.7 6605.3 7926.9 12.0 10191.1 13588.8 5.2 8492.9 10.4 11323.2 8021.6 9059.6 4246.1 14154.8 12267.3 16042.8 3774.3 3.6 .4 2.6 3.6 18118.5 14720.7 7.2 4.3 16985.9 6133.7 9.4 11323.3 11.5 3.4 13211.5 7549.4 PV Capacity [kW] 7.8 9436.9 6605.8 2.8 18.6 3.2 15.0 10.6% Wind [kWh/a] 5661.7 4.2 5.0 19250.9 15853.9 4.0 10191.5 14720.7 10.6 6.3 4.3 16985.0 6.4 11.0 3.4 4718.3%PV [kWh/a] 2830.8 12456.0 7.5 7077.5 5.1 13588.6 21.0 19250.5 10380.8 5.1 5661.4 8.0 System Design PV/Wind PV Capacity [kW] 2.6 12.9 3302.2 6.0 5.2 8.7 9.1 6.6 9059.2 11.9 14.9 9.9 System Design Wind/Diesel 80% Wind [kWh/a] 6794.8 7.1 System Design PV/Diesel 80% PV [kWh/a] 6794.Annex A: Electricity Demand and System Design 72 Total Number of Households 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 Diesel Capacity [kW] 1.0 19.1 11323.9 4.6 6.2 6.4 7549.0 3.7 33.5 7.5 16.3 5.9 15853.2 5190.7 3.5 4.1 8.3 9.3 20.6 18118.4 66.8 12456.

0 29441.4 18.6 37745.5 33971.5 33971.4 13.3 27177.2 13.8 8964.7 6.0 System Design PV/Diesel 80% PV [kWh/a] 20382.7 24.4 66.3 16042.0 16513.8 21515.2 22647.3 36236.8 31706.6 17929.9 19.8 8.4 13211.8 28.6 7.Annex A: Electricity Demand and System Design 73 Total Number of Households 90 95 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 175 200 Diesel Capacity [kW] 5.1 22647.3 12.1 11323.9 System Design PV/Wind PV Capacity [kW] 7.2 45295.3 8.3%PV [kWh/a] 8492.1 21.2 45295.4 20.4 14.8 .8 18872.8 12.8 31706.9 22.0 6.0 38500.1 51.1 28309.4 5.4 30196.2 17.0 29441.5 25.7 41.2 14.5 System Design Wind/Diesel 80% Wind [kWh/a] 20382.8 15.0 38500.5 24912.2 10.0 33027.8 12267.5 36.8 39633.0 PV Capacity [kW] 23.6 10.3 23.4 11.3 18872.0 Wind Capacity at 2000 h/a [kW] 13.3 26.7 14.8 39633.9 20760.9 16.6 19.5 10380.6 10.8 25.2 24.2 43.1 22647.4 17.0 9.1 29.9 21.3 30.8 21515.8 45.1 38.9 14.2 7.5 24912.3 27177.2 11.9 Wind Capacity at 2000 h/a [kW] 11.4 9.5 12.6% Wind [kWh/a] 16985.6 9436.5 24534.9 16.8 33.1 14154.7 15098.7 32084.9 33.8 26422.7 9.0 13.1 17.3 36236.8 8.

0 44.1 47182.3%PV [kWh/a] 21232.9 77.1 66.4 70.6 56618.8 62280.9 56618.0 System Design PV/Diesel 80% PV [kWh/a] 50956.8 Wind Capacity at 2000 h/a [kW] 27.4 System Design PV/Wind PV Capacity [kW] 19.3 System Design Wind/Diesel 80% Wind [kWh/a] 50956.6% Wind [kWh/a] 42464.2 25950.7 33.5 37.2 .0 34.1 37.8 62280.5 18.5 15.7 67942.6 Wind Capacity at 2000 h/a [kW] 33.9 56618.9 31.9 26.Annex A: Electricity Demand and System Design 74 Total Number of Households 225 250 275 300 Diesel Capacity [kW] 13.3 51900.3 28309.1 23591.6 PV Capacity [kW] 58.2 41.6 21.7 23.7 67942.0 16.0 64.

Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations

75

Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations
B.1 Scenario Definitions
For the comparison of the different electrification scenarios, the main requirement for adequate comparison is that in all scenarios the same amount of electricity is provided. Here, a village with 170 households is chosen, with peak electricity consumption of 48,126 kWh/a, which is to be produced by the different scenarios. SHS, however, are seen as an exception here. SHS are just used for household electrification, and since real application is to be investigated, this is accounted for here. It is assumed that every household is supplied with a 50 Wp SHS-module each, generating 80 kWh/a at the given global irradiation, efficiency and energy density. For the assessment of the impacts of conventional grid-based electrification on ecology, three commonly used developing/transition countries are chosen: Brazil for its high share of hydro power plants on electricity supply; China for its high share coal power plants on electricity supply; and South Africa as an African representative and with comparatively high share of nuclear power.

The different electricity supply systems are chosen from the database of GEMIS. An overview on system designs and main assumptions is given in the following.
Scenario 1: Hybrid systems
PV Module PV/Diesel monocrystalline PVmodule, system with aluminium-frame incl. Elevation after DIN small-scale dieselmotor for decentral electricity production, no emission control (base case) 20 9,625.2 10.2 30 1,460 10 Own assumption Source: GEMIS; for the diesel generator, no emission control is applied as worst case scenario Wind Generator Diesel Remarks/Source

Description

Electricity Production [%] Electricity Production [kWh/a] Installed Capacity [kW] Efficiency [%] Annual Operating Hours [h/a] Lifetime [a]

80 38,500.8 43.8 10 1,664 20

Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations
PV Module PV/Wind monocrystalline PVsmall-scale single module, system mit wind turbine, for good aluminium-frame incl. sites Elevation after DIN 33.3 16,042 14.8 10 1,664 20 66.7 32,084 21.1 100 2,000 12 Own estimation Wind Generator Diesel

76
Remarks/Source

Description

Source: GEMIS

Electricity Production [%] Electricity Production [kWh/a] Installed Capacity [kW] Efficiency [%] Annual Operating Hours [h/a] Lifetime [a] Wind/Diesel

Description

small-scale dieselmoSmall-scale single tor for decentral elecwind turbine, for good tricity production, no emission control sites (base case) 80 38,500.8 25.3 100 2,000 12 20 9,625.2 10.2 30 1,460 10

Source: GEMIS; for the diesel generator, no emission control is applied as worst case scenario

Electricity Production [%] Electricity Production [kWh/a] Installed Capacity [kW] Efficiency [%] Annual Operating Hours [h/a] Lifetime [a]

Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations

77
Remarks/Source

Scenario 2: Diesel Mini-Grid
Diesel Mini-Grid

Description

small-scale dieselmotor for decentral electricity Source: GEMIS; no emission control as is production, no emission control (base case) common in developing countries

Electricity Production [kWh/a] Installed Capacity [kWp] Efficiency [%] Annual Operating Hours [h/a] Lifetime [a] 48,126

22 30 2,190 6 Own assumption

Scenario 3: Renewable Energy
Solar Home system Remarks/Source Biogas Plant Remarks/Source Small generator for biogas from decentral Source: GEMIS; fermentation for elecCatalytic Converter tricity generation in added; Converter developing countries, meets World Bank with three-way cataEmission and Imlytic-converter for remission Standards duction of NOx/CO/NMVOC 35,058.3 170 Buildings, each one SHS

Description

Complete 50 Wp Solar Home System, incl. battery & CFL bulbs, with 100% firm power due to battery storage

Source: GEMIS

Electricity Production [kWh/a] Installed Capacity [kWp] Efficiency [%] Annual Operating Hours [h/a] Lifetime [a]

13,600

8.5 10 1,600 20

10 27.74 4,813 10

Own estimation Source: GEMIS

Own estimation

80.4 82. but gasification of wood.1 here neglected 600 38 6.Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations 78 Hydroelectric Power Plant Scenario 4: Grid-Extension Coal Power Plant Brazil In Brazil: bagasse.1 577.5 300 38 5. electric filter.2 18.000 30 950 33 6.800.1 Electricity Production [%] Electricity Production [kWh/a] Installed Capacity [MW] Efficiency [%] Annual Operating Hours [h/a] Lifetime [a] 38. PWR) sized power plant with Large scale river countries.2 1.removal.250 33 6.5 1.000 20 250 100 4.7 4.or in developing counintegrated biomass power plant Brazil tries.6 Nuclear Power Plant Others Description Electricity Production [%] Electricity Production [kWh/a] Installed Capacity [MW] Efficiency [%] Annual Operating Hours [h/a] Lifetime [a] China 3. injected gas turbine = STIG 8.117. of 5 g/MWh-el.213. in China China.2 50 100 6.597. includes asNOx.8 10 38.000 30 2.994.dam + reservoir water reactor LWR) in China.98 3.plant (pressurisedbine for developing water reactor.903.000 20 39.sumed nuclear waste simple-cycle steaming tower. no SO2.3 4.5 0.000 50 .506 15 Description Nuclear power plant Coal-fired steamhydro-electric power (pressurised lightturbine power plant in plant . no cool.000 50 2. Large hard coal power Generic nuclear power Here dealt with as biomass: mediumplant with steam tur.5 8.

bine in South Africa. Greenhouse Gas Emissions The following table shows the amount of greenhouse gas emissions attributable to the different electrification scenarios.1 0.200 25 360 100 3.000 25 920 33 7. South Africa.997. PWR with 2x 920 no SO2.5 5.8 2. Nuclear Power Plant Hydroelectric Power Plant Others 79 Description Electricity Production [%] Electricity Production [kWh/a] Installed Capacity [MW] Efficiency [%] Annual Operating Hours [h/a] Lifetime [a] 93. the amount of greenhouse gas emissions. CO2-Equivalents aggregate the different greenhouse gas emissions due to their contribution to the greenhouse effect. cooling tower assumed nuclear waste with wet recooling. supplied with energy due to the different scenarios.5 1.or NOx.2 Modelling Results The following section gives an overview and interpretation on the results of the GEMIS calculation for a village of 170 household. includes moval.9 529.646. With GEMIS. of 5 g/MWh-el.Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations Coal Power Plant South Africa Nuclear power plant Large hard coal power Koeberg close to Cape plant with steam turTown.1 44.4 here neglected 500 38 5.reMW-netto. . air pollutants and the cumulative energy demand (CED) were calculated.561 50 B.

38E-06 6.75 54.37 34.65E-03 7.63 2.53E-06 1. which can be explained with the high share of coal in electricity production.568.52 553.38 56.637.422.00 3.50 0.50 0.74E-07 These figures are illustrated by the following graphs.43 13.000 0 PV/ Wind/ PV/ Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South China Diesel Diesel Wind Af rica Figure B.000 30.340.879.071.43 40.93 3.38 0.53 54.23 234.51 10.815.63 CO2 [kg] 17.31 1.40E-07 1.533. The comparison of hybrid systems with grid-based electrification shows expected results for South Africa and China.Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations 80 Table B.47E-07 8.32 0.24 2.56 29.35 Perfluormethane Perfluorethane [kg] [kg] 2.02 8.73 11.677.36 46. the result .04 6.73E-07 7.52E-07 1.000 Greenhouse Gases [kg CO2-Equivalents] 50.16 12.11E-03 5.1 GEMIS Results: GHG Emissions The comparison of the different scenarios clearly shows that hybrid systems result in relatively few GHG emissions. PV/Wind hybrid systems do not apply fossil resources during operation. so that their GHG emissions are equal to those attributable to SHS and biogas. 60.57 166.000 40. The comparison with renewable energy technologies shows a likewise expected result: diesel based hybrid systems result in more GHG emissions than do SHS and biogas plants due to the application of the diesel generator.69 N2O [kg] 0.201.83E-07 4.11E-02 5.165. which applies 82.05E-08 1.27 3.27 42.43 17.98E-06 8.503.7% of hydropower for electricity generation.46E-06 3.945.1 Amount of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Option [kg] PV/ Diesel Wind/ Diesel PV/ Wind Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South Africa China CO2Equivalents [kg] 18.707. For Brazil.710.80 4.593.16E-06 2.09 1.80E-03 4.35E-06 6.000 10.10 1.887.44E-07 1.000 20.95 CH4 [kg] 27.31 2.969. The comparison with diesel genset shows the expected result: the application of hybrid systems result in less GHG emissions due to the fact that the diesel generator accounts for just 80% of the electricity production.

Air Pollutants The following tables show the amount of air pollutants attributable to the different electrification scenarios.2 GEMIS Results: Methane Emissions CH4 emissions. Secondly. the diesel generator applied in the model here does not apply emission reduction measures as catalytic converters.2. .Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations 81 seems surprising in the first instance. have a comparatively high greenhouse potential and therefore significantly contribute to the aggregated CO2Equivalents. the application of hydroelectric power plants results in a high degree of CH4 emissions as shows figure B. the Brazilian grid results in similar GHG emissions as do PV/Diesel systems. This has two main reasons: Firstly. although from their total amount fewer than CO2 emissions. SO2-Equivalents aggregate the different air pollutants due to their acidification potential. 600 Methance Emissions [kg] 500 400 300 200 100 0 PV/ Wind/ PV/ Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South China Diesel Diesel Wind Africa Figure B.

04E-04 3.08 0.71 NOx [kg] 169.30E-06 1.12E-05 1.18E-07 3.79 395.17 1.97E-04 8.19E-09 4.10E-06 3.87E-06 1.16E-05 4.41 NMVOC [kg] 3.06 156.66E-07 These figures are illustrated with the following graphs.22 -6.86 215.03 3.87E-11 SO2Equivalent [kg] 172.56E-05 5.04 40.17E-12 8.75E-09 6.07 1.76E-06 6.61 134.52E-04 PV/ Wind Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil 5.88 3.89E-06 4.74E-05 6.06 186.03 CO [kg] 51.48 43.73E-06 5.77E-10 1.20 77.26E-07 -1.24E-08 1.57E-04 China 5.17E-04 3.51E-08 1.14 3.46E-10 1.02 0.33 1.18E-05 3.94E-10 1.00 0.56 14.53 116.65E-08 2.35E-06 2.51 13.Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations 82 Table B.56E-05 4.07E-06 1.33E-06 2.00 155.24E-04 1.89E-05 4.01 0.53E-05 8.40 0.85 0.02E-05 1.67E-05 1.15E-09 -4.86E-06 1.03E-04 4. .66 18.29 16.04E-05 5.01 21.23E-05 1.39E-04 6.43E-05 1.76E-04 1.04 772.08 0.88 12.61 4.22 246.45 52.62E-08 1.71 1.76 6.46E-05 1.86 4.89E-05 6.01 2.85 297.2 Air Pollutants Option PV/ Diesel Wind/ Diesel PV/ Wind Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South Africa China 9.97E-05 1.44E-09 4.04E-07 7.91 0.18E-05 1.38E-08 -1.78 27.28E-03 Wind/ Diesel 3.04E-05 1.47E-05 4.25 HF [kg] 0.31E-04 2.42E-05 6.73 SO2 [kg] 53.47 0.74 0.49E-10 2.03 Dust [kg] 44.79E-04 8.11E-06 2.37 2.97E-05 2.36 197.13 35.05E-06 1.64E-10 2.35E-05 2.00E-06 2.24E-08 Option PV/ Diesel NH3 [kg] As [kg] Cd [kg] Cr [kg] Hg [kg] Ni [kg] Pb [kg] PCDD/F [kg] 1.91E-06 2.21E-06 3.89E-05 South Africa 8.22 32.33E-05 9.22 0.95 HCl [kg] 0.48E-06 -1.40 H2 S [kg] -1.08 0.13E-08 1.69 25.92E-08 6.67 47.32E-06 5.83 799.12 5.69E-05 9.10 1.15 0.54 161.50 0.66 0.49E-06 3.30 222.42E-10 1.12 0.97 4.27E-05 4.55E-05 1.62 390.06 168.01 0.

the higher the share of coal in electricity production and the worse the flue gas cleaning in these countries. the better the comparative performance of hybrid system. however. It illustrates that main pollutants in diesel systems are NOx. the following figure is meant to provide an overview. dust and CO. applying a high share of hydroelectric power. the amount of air pollutants is significantly Figure B. . while the conventional grid emits mainly SO2 from coal combustion. NOx. The high amount of air pollutants in the biogas system here results mainly from SO2 from sulphur in the fuel. the amount of air pollutants in a country like Brazil. However. In comparison with grid-based electrification. again the expected result is obtained. is lower. Compared to diesel gensets. Due to fewer operational time of the diesel generator in hybrid systems. For PV/Wind systems. especially PV/Wind systems. The comparison with SHS shows that diesel-based hybrid systems result in higher emissions of air pollutants. For a better overview on the amount of the main air pollutants SO2. The comparison with biogas systems.3 GEMIS Results: Air Pollutants lower than for diesel mini-grids. reveals similar or less air pollutants from hybrid systems. the total amount is similar.Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations 83 800 Air Pollutants [kg SO2-Equivalents] 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 PV/ Wind/ PV/ Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South China Diesel Diesel Wind Af rica The comparison of the different scenarios shows that hybrid systems are likely to result in few emissions of air pollutants.

040.945.0 Others [kWh] 2.7 64.6 129.1 10.717.353.6 48.4 123.6 958.645.9 19.602.600.861.4 54.4 350.6 8.159.3 56.0 12.4 Non-Renewable Resources [kWh] 62.1 109.8 13. 46 Source: GEMIS .0 118. both during operation and for the construction of the power plant.537.3 59.3 39.0 38.0 210.273.3 0.2 14.3 82.0 58.747.078.032.2 1.975.3 Cumulative Energy Demand (Primary Energy) Option Total CED [kWh] 103.369.6 68.2 43.085.0 60.681.3 209.Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations 800 Selected Air Pollutants [kg] 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 PV/ Wind/ Diesel Diesel PV/ Wind Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South Africa China SO2 NOx Dust CO 84 Figure B.015.3 PV/Diesel Wind/Diesel PV/Wind Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South Africa China These figures are illustrated with the following graphs.705.742.012.053.6 537.799.370. Table B.1 180.4 Selected Air Pollutants Cumulative Energy Demand (CED) The Cumulative Energy Demand (CED) in kWh is a measure for the whole effort on energy resources (primary energy) for the provision of products or services. The following table shows the results of the GEMIS calculations.1 Renewable Resources [kWh] 39.454.46 It is therefore a measure to describe the extent to which renewable and non-renewable energy resources are consumed in order to provide electricity.2 129.4 45.

which shows not only a higher degree of renewable energy consumption by PV/Wind systems than with SHS. This is to the higher energy demand for higher installed capacity in PV/Wind hybrid systems.000 50.000 100. In comparison to Biogas and the conventional grid of Brazil with a high share of hydropower. hybrid systems are all disadvantageous. In comparison to SHS. This idea is supported by figure B. but also a significantly higher degree of non-renewable energy consumption. the consumption of non-renewable resources. Just PV/Wind systems are able to compete with biogas and the grid of Brazil. being most important for this assessment here. As is proved by figure B. 250. this disadvantage might well be due to the fact that larger systems of higher installed capacity are applied to provide more energy than with SHS.6 Cumulative Energy Demand According to Resources . For the case of PV/Wind hybrid systems.6 as well.6 as well.000 150.000 0 PV/ Wind/ PV/ Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South China Diesel Diesel Wind Africa Non-renew able Renew able Others CED [kWh] Figure B.000 CED [kWh] 200. is higher in these hybrid systems due to the use of the diesel generator.000 the diesel mini-grid and to the conven0 tional grid in counPV/ Wind/ PV/ Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South China tries with a high Diesel Diesel Wind Africa share of coal in electricity generaFigure B. hybrid systems applying diesel generators are disadvantageous.000 geous compared to 50.5 Cumulative Energy Demand (Primary Energy) tion.000 total cumulative energy demand 200.Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations 85 The investigation of 250.000 shows that the ap150.000 plication of hybrid systems is advanta100.

power distribution lines cause significant noise pollution by generating a constantly buzzing noise. Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid The generation of electricity in centralised power plants does not result in noise in the remote villages. Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies The PV modules of SHS do not generate noise during operation and do not apply power distribution lines. Moreover. However. by this resulting in a comparatively good assessment. but in reality this is not often the case and. for the single remote village discussed here the impact on noise pollution is estimated to be low due to the fact that electricity generation does not take place in the village itself.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 86 Annex C: Analysis of Impacts C. Biogas plants for electrification create noise through the operation of the biogas-generator. are necessary in order to provide the same amount of electricity as with hybrid systems. which frequently occur. resulting in a comparatively very good evaluation. which as well can be cushioned. Since the load is not constant during these hours. However. usually for the duration of several hours. Just as for hybrid systems. . but also due to start-up and shut-down procedures. with longer operation time than in diesel-based hybrid systems. Due to this reason the impact of diesel gensets on noise pollution is evaluated to be comparatively very poor. affecting more villages than the discussed single remote one. For power distribution lines the same considerations apply as above. Due to the fact that power transport to remote villages takes place over large distances with high and medium voltage lines. the generator produces noise not only through operation. which could create noise. Therefore. thus. The impact on noise pollution is therefore estimated to be negligible. This clearly shows that this effect is not negligible. the noise is distributed over these large distances as well. the impact on noise pollution created by biogas-systems is estimated to be low. power distribution lines of the mini-grid further contribute to noise generation. cannot be taken in consideration for the assessment here. resulting in a comparatively good assessment.1 Ecology Indicator: Noise Pollution Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets Diesel genset-based mini-grids are commonly operating the generator during evening hours. Cushioning the noise of a diesel genset alone can as well be done by building a powerhouse. larger gensets producing more noise.

resulting in a comparatively very good performance. biogas systems are estimated to be in many cases significantly less compatible to cultural issues than hybrid systems. thus. The GTZ reports obstacles arising from religious and/or social taboos (GTZ. which is valued very high in some religions. In an overall result.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 87 C. Most people in rural areas are familiar of the possibilities and benefits of gridbased electrification. SHS suffer from the same problem of acceptance due to intermittent supply as do diesel gensets.. can supply electricity for 24 hours. Since word-of-mouth . Furthermore. Experiences show that only the advertisement of SHS as pre-electrification before being connected to the grid brings the necessary acceptance among rural population (Sauer. 1999a). in regions where renewable energies like photovoltaic and wind have already been applied. a preference towards these technologies can sometimes even be observed. 2000). As a result. and are. it is also reported that people are often dissatisfied with the unreliable and intermittent energy provision with diesel gensets (Prokahausli Sangsad Ltd. Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid The extension of the conventional grid is usually the option being preferred the most by rural population. which. 2003). but also to the hard and tiring work connected to filling the tank of a generator. 2000). is not seen as guaranteed in dealing with human and animal excrements. the feeling of being electrified in second class manner. H. Biogas systems have been found to be the system probably facing most cultural obstacles. so that hybrid systems are likely to face less cultural obstacles than do SHS. the use of the produced gas for the preparation of food and the use of the slurry as fertiliser is sometimes hindered on cultural grounds. can give to rural population. because they have relatives or friends in cities. This effect is likely to be stronger than in hybrid systems. SHS are assessed to perform comparatively poor with regard to cultural compatibility and acceptance. Especially the work connected to running a biogas system can be prohibited as well. Furthermore.2 Socio-Economic Issues Indicator: Cultural Compatibility and Acceptance Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets Diesel gensets are one of the most common and well-known ways to address the problem of electrification of remote areas. but probably to a higher degree since SHS is a new technology being unknown to population. The fact that energy provision is very limited and does not satisfy all needs and expectations. people are likely to have a high degree of confidence towards this technology. therefore performing comparatively very poor. However. especially in winter (GTZ. diesel gensets are still likely to face hardly any cultural obstacles or problems with acceptance than hybrid systems due to their high degree of publicity.. if functioning well. Religious taboos are experienced to arise for example from the fact that cleanliness. no major obstacles resulting from cultural incompatibilities have been reported yet. Thus. Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies For SHS. However. This is not only due to the high operational costs for diesel gensets. who is well aware of possibilities of grid-based electrification. All in all. open to solutions for this.

and middle-income rural families (Cabraal. they can be considered as completely independent from power structures even within rural communities. the extension of the conventional grid to remote villages is considered as “real electrification” and will most likely be welcomed by rural population. Once constructed. hybrid systems are even more expensive. however. SHS can be assessed to be more beneficial towards supply equity. however. SHS are significantly advantageous compared to hybrid systems and other decentralised electrification measures: because SHS provide electricity to individual households. 1996). The fact.. Biogas systems generally seem to offer a good possibility for independent and fair power supply. the application of hybrid systems (and any other technology) has the potential to do so and to take account of matters of supply equity. A. since costs for hybrid systems are high as well. However. and electrification with diesel gensets has then usually not been implemented in an elaborated way.47 For this reason.. at Intersolar fair. Meanwhile. this effect does not apply. attenuates this effect. the GTZ notes the possibility of a further accentuation of existing differences in income and property holdings (GTZ. L. Nevertheless. that investment costs for SHS are comparatively high. From a financial perspective. 2003 . and poor farmers are likely to be coerced to deliver their manure to the landlord or more prosperous farmers. However. In this respect. so that it is decided here to assess hybrid systems and diesel gensets as equally with regard to supply equity.. being independent from fossil resources. diesel gensets are relatively expensive with regard to total costs. the degree of cultural compatibility and acceptance of grid extension is assessed to be comparatively very good.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 88 propaganda is a common cultural habit in developing countries. preferred to remain for a couple of years without electrification in order to preserve the chances for grid extension. Schaeffer. SHS are independent from fuel and are not likely to become matter of political power demonstrations since they belong to the consumers themselves. June 28th. Project developers even describe experiences where rural population refused to be electrified with renewable energy technologies because of their fear that the conventional grid is then likely not to be extended to their region. 1999b). Fraunhofer ISE – Club for Rural Electrification. The World Bank states that investment costs are in the order of magnitude of a year’s income for low. either free of charge or at least cheaply. For a biogas plant on community level. nevertheless. Comparatively high investments make this technology more affordable to well-situated families. Cosgrove-Davies. the same problem might apply as for hybrid systems that matters of political power or 47 Personal Comment given by Dirk-Uwe Sauer. Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies SHS offer a solution for electrification being largely independent from existing power structures. M. thus. It is. Indicator: Degree of Supply Equity Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets Diesel-based mini-grids often do already exist in developing countries.

and the responsibility for this is left to the individual consumer. the effect on capacity building of SHS is here evaluated to be lower. F. Ounalli. This does not result in the same effect on capacity building or social empowerment than with hybrid systems. by this offer potential for understanding of the limited nature of energy. Therefore. then no electricity can be used. 2000). which make decentralised rural electrification highly advantageous with regard to supply equity. However. 1999). however. biogas plants are seen as preferential with regard to supply equity compared to hybrid systems. and that people adapt energy consumption to seasonal patterns with regard to insolation (Hammamami. Many developing countries have experienced demonstrations of political power on the issue of energy.. M. if not.. where electricity is simply not available during the day.. The consumer should not only be directly involved in the planning processes. due to lower costs for biogas systems. A.J. . which is obviously due to natural limitations and fluctuations of renewable energy resources. applies to hybrid systems as well. but only during some hours in the evening. Biogas systems involve a lot of work to be done by the consumer himself. This is not the case with diesel gensets. and therefore the effect on capacity building is here evaluated to be higher than for hybrid systems. Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid It is a well-known fact that the conventional grid can become a matter of political power on a national level..D. a general statement cannot be given. The question whether or not to extend the conventional grid to certain rural areas is often a matter of political influence and preference as well. Still. which cannot be run all day.. N. but to a lesser degree since back-up with a diesel genset weakens the effect.. et al. Since grid extension to remote rural areas requires enormous investment. resulting in a comparatively very good assessment. electricity is available. resulting in a comparatively poor performance of grid extension in this respect. Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies Experiences with PV systems in general and SHS in particular show that the link between energy consumption and insolation is usually understood (Nieuwenhout. Indicator: Potential for Participation and Empowerment Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets Diesel gensets. the potential for capacity building and increasing empowerment is higher for hybrid systems due to the fact that consumers in hybrid systems need to adapt to certain regulations. This effect. it is decided here to assess hybrid systems as preferential to grid extension with regard to supply equity. From a financial perspective. to some degree have the same problem as diesel gensets: if insolation (or diesel in the case of diesel gensets) is there. Njaimi.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 89 mismanagement of the electrification committee can result in unequal supply. This shows the great potential this technology offers towards capacity building and empowerment. but also needs to directly participate in the production of energy and the fertiliser. where people are to understand the limited nature of energy in order to make electricity available to everybody to the same extent. SHS. et al.

2000). Indicator: Potential for Economic Development Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets From a technical point of view. An important constraint on the potential for economic development is the fact that diesel gensets are less suitable to be operated the whole day... 2000). have been reported (GTZ. 2000b).Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 90 Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid The extension of the conventional grid is not likely to improve understanding about the limited availability of electricity.J. a biofertiliser. Due to the latter fact. The effect is therefore evaluated to be significantly lower than for hybrid systems. the potential for economic development with diesel gensets is estimated to be lower than with hybrid systems. B. et al.. . and energy supply is open to any kind of use with limitation just through pricing. However. Schaeffer. offering a high degree of flexibility for the villages with effectively no technical constraints to be made on the use of appliances (ESMAP. L. and the costs for expanding capacity are considerably high (Cabraal. one should not ignore the fact of improved yields attributable to biogas systems. The potential for economic development of biogas systems depends on the size of the system and is therefore a matter of the pre-investment planning process. Best. since operation costs are high. The potential of SHS for economic development is therefore rated to be considerably lower than for hybrid systems. The following aspects are mentioned (Campen. F. but there was just little evidence found for the potential of SHS to generate income (Nieuwenhout. et al. average increases of yields between 6 to 10%.. As a result of the use of the by-product. diesel gensets are comparable to grid connection. Guidi. K. Cosgrove-Davies. An extension of an existing system can be done by erecting new tanks and biogas generators if enough substrate is available and financial feasibility is given. Energy is not generated on site to improve people’s understanding. which was mentioned as potential for income generation. 2000): lighting provides the possibility of extended commercial activities in the evening.. G.D. Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies The potential for economic development of SHS has been matter of intensive research.. resulting in a comparatively very poor potential of SHS for economic development. A.. The commonly installed capacities are not sufficient to be used for productive purposes by installing electrical machines. in some cases up to 20%. 1999b). When discussing the economic development potential. SHS services are limited. SHS were found to be a tourist attraction in Nepal.. resulting in the assessment of a comparatively very poor potential for participation and empowerment. 1996).. Experiences show that rural population reverts to existing diesel gensets in the village for productive purposes or to the use of petroleum for further lighting (Preiser. M. D.

Biogas systems provide potential for employment both in a long-term and short-term perspective. M.by the operator or family members. the application of diesel gensets is not very labour intensive. Since building material for biogas plants is less sophisticated than for example for photovoltaic modules.. Indicator: Employment Effects Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets The use of diesel gensets for electrification is likely to result in lower employment effects as in the case of hybrid systems. as outlined above. the potential for economic development through biogas systems seems lower than with hybrid systems. A.D. F. As for all energy technologies. . which are likely to experience a substantial load-growth after electrification.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 91 However. the extension of the conventional grid normally offers a maximum degree of flexibility to accommodate increasing demand without supply constraints. but not for electrification of machines for handicraft businesses. 2000). This effect. is reduced by the fact that the application of SHS is likely to have negative influence on the possibility of kerosene dealers. to sell their goods (Nieuwenhout. the impact of diesel gensets on overall employment is valued to be lower than with hybrid systems. who are the major competitor of SHS for lighting.. The main restriction given is quite often the ability of the customers to pay for the energy service. sales. 1996). For this reason. In China it was experienced that every district applying biogas erected its own enterprises for the production of the individual parts of the biogas plant (GTZ. and related maintenance work is carried out – if at all . however.. et al. Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid For villages. while hybrid systems depend on the unlimited resources wind and/or sun. already the construction phase is likely to encourage local manufacturing of building materials and accessories.. the potential for economic development given by the conventional grid can be considered to be higher than for hybrid systems. Direct effects on employment related to operation and maintenance of diesel gensets can be evaluated to be low. Since SHS systems just provide potential for lighting.. Anyhow. the effect of enhanced economic activities is likely to occur. are likely to result in further employment effects as well. 2003). However. since it is limited by the availability of the substrate. Generally.J. L. Production. especially of those activities taking place in evenings since this is the time when diesel-based mini-grids likely operate. 1999b). Cosgrove-Davies. employment effects by enhanced commercial activities during the evenings are likely to occur through SHS. it should not be overseen that for grid connection a minimum threshold level of electricity demand as well as certain load densities are essential in order to achieve economies of scale (Cabraal. These activities are mostly carried out by family members of the operator and are often neglected (GTZ. it is expected here that SHS are likely to result in lower employment effects than hybrid systems. Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies As with diesel gensets. Schaeffer. service and maintenance of PV systems.

sales or maintenance of energy generating technologies. Thus. Besides the potential general impacts of electrification on human health. and both are evaluated to have a comparatively good effect on employment opportunities. the fact that grid-based electrification offers higher potential for commercial activities than hybrid systems is lowered by the lack of job opportunities related to the energy provision itself. and since household chores can be dealt with in the evenings due to lighting. diesel gensets generally can be applied as well. 1999b). Commercial activities using electricity can take place at any time of the day. no corrosive gases are emitted. direct employment effects are likely not to occur. Due to the fact that biogas systems are less sophisticated and that experiences proof immediate effects on employment due to their application. The extension of the conventional grid hardly gives rise to job opportunities related to production. 1999b). This positive effect can be reduced if kerosene lamps and candles are applied additionally in case lighting is not sufficient. In comparison to hybrid systems. For the electrification of health clinics. The fermentation process inside the tank significantly reduces the initial pathogenic capacity of the animal and human excrements. For this reason the positive impact on human health is here considered to be lower than with hybrid systems. Indicator: Impacts on Health Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets For the use of diesel gensets the same argument concerning corrosive gases applies as outlined for the hybrid systems. . families have more time during the day to follow commercial activities as farming or animal husbandry. Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies During operation of SHS. Electrification of rural health clinics with SHS is unlikely. the impact on improved human health is lower than with hybrid systems. the likelihood to create job opportunities is here estimated to be higher than for hybrid systems. The positive effect on human health is thus higher than with hybrid systems.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 92 When applying biogas systems on a community level. but do not produce electricity in the same reliable and constant manner as do hybrid systems. since skilled craftsmen are needed as permanent staff for the plant (GTZ. further employment effects for operation and maintenance of the plants can be expected. biogas systems have a special positive side effect by improving sanitary conditions for the plant owners or even the villages. SHS are usually not designed to support appliances like refrigerators or even X-ray equipment. and biogas slurry does not attract important causes for contagious diseases as flies and other insects (GTZ. However. handicraft enterprises get the opportunity to use as many appliances as they need and can finance. Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid The extension of the conventional grid is certainly the possibility offering the highest potential to create all such employment opportunities. This leads to the estimation that no preference is made towards one of these scenarios. which can be attributed to electrification.

3 – 2. However. CO2.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 93 Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid The extension of the conventional grid to remote areas does not result in emissions from the electricity generating process in the village itself.1. J. Moreover. the main problems of diesel gensets are rather the high operation costs and the overall low lifetime.45 – 0. Table C.. however. 2002) 1.33 US$/W 50 Bulitai (Inner Mongolia) (GTZ.57 US$/W 0.29 €/W 5 (Wuppertal Institute. some data could be collected and is presented in Table C. F.. But after-effects as acid rain have severe impacts on human health.5 Inner Mongolia (Byrne. This positive assessment. CO or SO2 are emitted.. W.3 Economic Issues Indicator: Investment Costs per kW Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets Diesel gensets commonly require low initial investment. Since flue gas cleaning in these power plants is usually not elaborated well. 1998) any (Kininger. Thus. B.5 €/W 0. 2002) . high amounts of i.e. is worsened in countries where for example the share of coal for electricity generation is high. it is decided here not to give a preference to grid extension or hybrid systems with regard to the impacts on human health and both are considered to have a comparatively good potential to improve human health situation. Shen.1: Initial Investment Costs for Diesel Gensets System Investment costs Capacity [kW] Location/Source Remarks 0..20 US$/W 5 – 20 Diesel 2. the conventional grid is undoubtedly able to support electricity demand from rural health clinics. 2003) Bangladesh (Prokahausli Sangsad Ltd..10 – 1. C. 2000) Second hand generators of private service providers 0. This does not take place close to the remote villages and therefore does not result in immediate health problems. Wallace.

2003) gives 2. and often higher energy losses (Cabraal.5 – 4 €/W as a reference point for specific investment costs.48 Compared to the figures for hybrid systems..16 €/W for a 20 kW diesel genset.. Due to their simplicity. and can be up to 20.. Schaeffer. Therefore. A. 1996). the World Bank estimated in 1996 that prices for SHS are typically in the range of 7 – 26 US$/Wp (Cabraal.J. 1996).. Observed price reductions are stated to be related to decreases in taxes and duties rather than to a decrease of hardware costs. An appraisal in (ATB. M.0394 ×  [€/kW]. M. A reduction of up to 15% for labour wages can be achieved (GTZ. Therefore. The same study furthermore concluded that the prevailing view that costs for PV hardware are likely to decrease.. 2000). Cosgrove-Davies.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 94 The cost analysis here revealed specific investment costs for diesel gensets of P   345. According to the World Bank. including all installations but not including land. Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid As in all of the above cases. with the main share of the costs needed for the digester. L. Additional costs result from the application of the biogas generator. For the evaluation. Problems associated with grid extension in rural areas are lower load densities in rural areas. the initial investment for diesel gensets is therefore significantly lower.D.28 €/W in the case of a 5 kW kW   genset or 0. the construction of power distribution lines account for 80 to 90% of the overall investment. A. meaning for example 0. which is not surprising with regard to the fact that PV/Diesel and Wind/Diesel systems apply diesel gensets as well. resulting in the assessment of comparatively very poor performance with regard to investment costs. Biogas plants usually require high investment as well. A recent Dutch study concluded that prices are typically in the range of 10 – 22 US$/Wp (Nieuwenhout. L. F... 1999b). can be constructed with a high share of user’s involvement. et al. costs for extension of the conventional grid vary widely not only among. Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies The initial investment costs for SHS vary significantly from country to country. Total costs of biogas plants. biogas plants. but are generally comparatively high: depending on the size of the module and the frame conditions of the respective countries. and costs vary strongly between different plant types and sizes. are estimated to be 50 – 75 US$ per m3 capacity in (GTZ. 1999b). with 250 – 400 €/ m3 for the digester. Cosgrove-Davies. could not be supported. For PV/Wind systems. however.000 US$ per kilometre (ESMAP. it can be stated that SHS can require significantly higher investments per Watt than hybrid systems. Schaeffer. investment cost for biogas plants can be evaluated to be lower than for hybrid systems. the initial investment is as well significantly higher than for diesel gensets. if 48 P = Installed Capacity in kW .63 × exp − 0. lower capacity utilisation rates. resulting in a comparatively good assessment of investment costs.. but also within countries. 2000b). the extension of the conventional grid is just economically feasible.

2. The operational costs for diesel gensets are usually considerably high. 1996. Wallace. J. with a median cost of about US$ 520 per connection. B.. For the case of Inner Mongolia. . 2001). M.80 US$/kWh 1. W..800 per connection. a considerable number of households is to be connected to the grid. A. however. the experiences with diesel genset are presented in Table C.20 to US$ 0. For the case of a remote village.27 US$/kWh49 Diesel Genset (continuous service) (GTZ. and the efficiency of operation. 1998) Source A direct comparison of hybrid systems with diesel gensets. Table C.2: Electricity Generating Costs for Diesel Gensets Diesel Genset (non-continuous service) 0.. 2002). Indicator: Electricity Generating Costs Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets The costs for electricity generation with mini-grids based on diesel gensets vary depending mainly on the following factors (ESMAP. From a perspective of the local consumer. Main determinant for the resulting connection cost is the average number of consumers per kilometre of line (ESMAP..16-1..56 US$/kWh 0. the connection cost to the grid is of major importance.76-0. should be performed on the basis of the same capacity installed and with the same electricity output. 2000b). Shen. L. 49 Levelized costs based on field analysis of battery’s lifetime. The World Bank estimates that costs for electricity generation with such systems typically range from US $0. and a review of the World Bank in 1990 showed that these costs typically range from US$ 230-US$ 1. and: Baur. Schaeffer. hybrid systems can be evaluated to be less costly than grid extension. This was done by Wuppertal Institute in (Wuppertal Institute. 2000). and the distance between single households in the village is low (household density) (Cabraal..3.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 95 - the village is situated close to the next medium-voltage line of the conventional grid. 2000b): size of the generator. and is shown in Table C. J. number of consumers.. consumption per individual consumer. Cosgrove-Davies. 2003) (Byrne.60 per kWh (ESMAP. which is still lower than for hybrid systems.

Shen. the electricity generating costs are approximately 1 US$/kWh (BMZ.. these costs are high and make the application of SHS difficult for electrification of the poorest.25 kWh of electricity on a sunny day.450 23.J. Experiences in Inner Mongolia reveal costs of 0. However.. 1998). 1999). The comparison in Table C. photovoltaic systems are likely to become the least cost option (Nieuwenhout. W. Shen. For a common 50 Wp SHS. thus lowering overall system costs.J.. this situation might be considerably different as the above example of Inner Mongolia proves. Experiences of GTZ show that biogas programmes are usually less costly than similar strategies accounting both for energy and the production or use of fertilisers and being based on fossil resources (GTZ.45 €/kWh 1. if no subsidies are provided by the respective countries..73 US$/kWh (Byrne.740 Electricity Generating Costs at Diesel Price of 0.5 € 1.. B. Whether additional costs occur is matter of further use of appliances: since SHS have limited capacity and extension is comparatively expensive. ratio 4:1 Wind/Diesel. 2000). For the application of biogas systems. ratio 4:1 Investment costs in € 11.. 2000).D.3: Hybrid Systems at Different Diesel Prices Capacity: 5 kW Electricity Output: 2190 kWh/a Diesel Genset PV/Diesel. In countries where fuel is subsidised.15 – 0. making the construction of mini-grids more attractive for villages with several households demanding electrification. Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies In case smaller loads are required. auxiliary energy sources as diesel gensets might be applied and generate additional costs (Nieuwenhout.84 €/kWh 1.59 €/kWh Comparing these figures for hybrid systems and diesel gensets.. However.. Here. these hybrid systems can compete. costs do not decrease with more households applying SHS.. B. An appraisal of the Wuppertal Institute results in electricity generating costs of 0. delivering around 0. W.67 –0. data based on experiences could not be obtained.51 €/kWh 1. 1999a). J. diesel-based hybrid systems are likely not to be competitive. 1999b).20 .37 US$/kWh (Byrne. the cost analysis of electricity generating costs reveals that SHS is likely to result in lower costs than hybrid village systems. a general statement cannot be given for PV/Diesel and Wind/Diesel hybrid systems. et al. especially if 24-hours electrification is required. 1998).75 € 1.D.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 96 Table C. Generally. the aspect of costs for electricity generation cannot be seen independent from the fact that the production of bio-fertiliser and a correspondent observed increase of yields generates income (GTZ. Nevertheless. et al. F. However.3 shows the high dependency on the fuel price.825 22.70 €/kWh Electricity Generating Costs at Diesel Price of 1. Wallace. Wallace. in the case of hybrid household systems. in the evaluation preference is given to diesel gensets due the data of the World Bank. PV/Wind household systems were experienced to be as low as 0.. F. In any case. J.

. M. 1996). This. Schaeffer. 2000).. Cosgrove-Davies. M. A. Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid A general statement on electricity generating costs from the conventional grid cannot be given since costs vary strongly between different countries and grid characteristics. 2001). L. Even though the technology itself has been known for years. L. operators often lack knowledge about these systems. Service centres are needed as well.. M.. not every PV user owns the required auxiliary means as for example a ladder for cleaning the PV array. Cosgrove-Davies.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 97 Euro/kWh for biogas plants (Wuppertal Institute.. A problematic experience with the education of technicians was observed in Indonesia in applying SHS: technicians who were educated within the context of the project left the villages . then costs and tariffs can be relatively low. Still. Nevertheless. 1996). In case of system breakdowns. which is available on rural markets (Prokahausli Sangsad Ltd. According to the World Bank. Moreover. spare parts are difficult to purchase due to the remoteness of the villages (ESMAP. Indicator: Maintenance Requirements Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets The application of diesel gensets in remotely located mini-grids has been facing long-standing maintenance problems. Technicians are needed. but a single technician can serve maintenance needs for a large number of customers (Cabraal. Experiences also show severe problems with poor quality contaminated fuel.. electricity generating costs are here valued to be significantly lower for grid extension than for hybrid systems.J. If this is the case. especially simple maintenance functions as cleaning of the PV arrays can be carried out individually. the additional requirement for the maintenance of the renewable energy generator and the other components as batteries and charge controllers give preference to the diesel genset. et al. F. A. has not to be taken for granted since costs for biogas plants vary strongly.. 1996).. 2000b). 2000). resulting in considerable effort for cleaning (Nieuwenhout. L. As a conclusion it is decided here to value the performance of biogas systems with regard to electricity prices significantly better than for hybrid systems. 2000a). Schaeffer.. just few households can carry out this maintenance by themselves over a long period of time (Cabraal. as the World Bank describes. A. Schaeffer.. et al. A common occurrence is that a doubling of consumption per household over a time frame of ten years leads in many places to a decline of costs per kWh of about 40% (ESMAP. A. and they can even further decline with increasing consumption.D. However.. Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies SHS can partly be maintained by users themselves. Although the back-up diesel generator in hybrid systems is likely to be strained less than in the case of a diesel genset-based mini-grid. grid extension offers the least costly option for electricity generation in cases where a medium voltage line serving a number of centres with larger loads passes the respective community nearby (ESMAP.. 2002). again. a rule of thumb from the Dominican Republic states that systems should not be installed more than 50 km away from the next service centre (Cabraal. 2002). as the example of Bangladesh proofs (Barkat... Cosgrove-Davies. from a perspective of maintenance the application of hybrid systems seems to be less favourable than diesel gensets.

GTZ. This lead to a lack of maintenance and undermined the whole effort for setting up a maintenance structure. the relatively higher complexity of hybrid systems compared to SHS makes the application of SHS advantageous from the point of view of maintenance. This dependency is of course much higher than for hybrid systems.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 98 and searched for better paid jobs in cities (Preiser. If once the production of biogas is reduced.51 and therefore hybrid systems are evaluated to be less problematic from a point of view of maintenance. the comparative assessment results in a preference for grid extension.. very often it is just old motors from cars. Indicator: Degree of Import Dependence and Regional Self-Supply Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets Diesel gensets can usually be only produced in larger countries as China. 2000). 1999a). . etc. 2003. Regular charging with substrate is essential. the result is then a slight preference for hybrid systems. but taking into account the current non-existence. resulting in comparatively very poor performance of biogas plants with regard to maintenance. Biogas systems require regular attendance and maintenance. resulting in longer periods of shortages. which usually have a pool of experts or technicians for this purpose. It is therefore likely that due to the remoteness of the here considered villages. especially in African countries. Personal Comment given by Jörg Baur. which can be a problem especially in tropic countries where climate dictates agricultural activities. experts from GTZ have experienced maintenance as a major issue with biogas plants. local technicians need to be trained and maintenance centres need to be erected. 50 51 Personal Comment given by Jörg Baur.. making the performance of diesel gensets comparatively poor with regard to this indicator. where fuel consumption is reduced to roughly 20% of the figures for diesel-based mini-grids. but requires help from experts even in developed countries. Thus. Maintenance of the conventional grid is to be carried out by a central public or private utility. Diesel gensets are also heavily dependent on the import of fuel. in Eschborn/Germany on August 14th. in Eschborn/Germany on August 14th. maintenance will be carried out slowly. Moreover. India. but in case it is forgotten. Assuming that markets for renewable energy technologies are likely to develop. Therefore. the cause of problems related to the micro-organisms inside the tank cannot be identified by users themselves. 2003. et al. Because in the case of decentralised electrification with hybrid systems. K. Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid System breakdowns and shortages in power supply are likely to occur due to often unreliable conventional grids in developing countries. which are taken for electrification. a return to normal levels takes up to 10 days (GTZ. GTZ. Although the problem of batteries and charge controllers applies to SHS as well. the conventional grid is assessed to perform comparatively good with regard to maintenance. Maintenance usually cannot be carried out by the customers themselves or local technicians. the result of decreasing gas production is observed with significant time lag.50 For this reason.

this is not taken in consideration. obviously are less dependent on energy import than the major part of the developing countries. For the application of SHS in developing countries. Indicator: Supply Security Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets Electricity provision with diesel-based mini-grids is limited. This effect was evaluated to be in the range of 30-35% by Indian experts (GTZ. diesel gensets provide limited energy supply . Therefore preference is given to SHS with regard to import dependency since hybrid systems applying diesel gensets normally still rely on diesel imports. A. the gensets usually operate 4-12 hours in the evenings (Cabraal. Thus. 2000). resulting in a comparatively good performance of SHS with regard to this indicator.. M.5 years (Prokahausli Sangsad Ltd. This is due to the fact that the degree of regional self-supply is higher for decentralised electrification solutions than with the conventional grid. The degree of import independence and regional self-supply is therefore rated to be significantly higher with biogas systems compared to hybrid systems. L. However. the experience shows that due to the uncomplex nature of the systems. the World Bank in 1996 stated high transaction costs in purchase and servicing for SHS due to limited market structures (Cabraal. Cosgrove-Davies.. 1999a). which are dependent on fuel imports to a large extent. M. the degree of supply security is here estimated to be lower than with hybrid due to the following aspects: as already described. Schaeffer. resulting in a comparatively very good assessment of biogas plants with regard to this indicator. For the case of PV/Wind systems. 1996). 1996). since it was experienced and is assumed here that markets for PV are likely to develop.. Cosgrove-Davies. generating a high share of its electricity with hydropower. A. The degree of import independence is here evaluated to be lower than for hybrid systems. local production of needed materials and components and respective markets can rather easily be developed.. Firstly. L. ingredients for the operation of the plants are locally available. the result of this assessment is the same due to the fact that markets both for PV and for wind generators need to be developed before local production becomes reasonable. Countries as Brazil. Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid On a country level. Schaeffer. the lifetime of a conventional diesel genset is about 4 years and can become as low as 1..Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 99 Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies SHS offer to a large extent the possibility of independence from the import of fossil resources as oil or coal. the degree of import dependency is difficult to assess for developing countries in general. Furthermore.. the comparative assessment reveals a poor performance of grid extension with regard to this indicator. Although diesel gensets offer a proven and reliable technology for rural electrification. The additional effect of the production of bio-fertiliser can even lower the need for import of mineral fertilisers.. Biogas systems provide a comparatively high potential for independence in electricity generation.

Moreover. diesel gensets are valued as average with regard to supply security. The reason for this is on the one hand non-continuous energy provision. Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid From the extension of the conventional grid one can usually expect a reliable full-time coverage of electricity demand. and with system breakdowns without electricity supply during longer periods of unfavourable weather conditions. it has to be considered that markets and maintenance structures for renewable energy have not yet emerged in most developing countries.J.. For the comparative assessment here. 2000b). implying that in case of breakdowns. the reactivation can take several days and needs the involvement of experts in case problems with the tank occur. Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies Security supply with SHS is certainly to be estimated as lower than with hybrid systems. no electricity can be generated at all For the comparative assessment here. F. For biogas plants no information on the reliability of the systems could be obtained. 2000b). et al.D. 1999a). reductions and fluctuations in voltage can become so severe that the use of appliances is connected with the risk of damages for the customer (ESMAP. limiting electricity provision to just several hours during the day. SHS are seen as average with regard to supply security. being average in the comparative assessment here. with breakdowns in generating equipment or distribution systems and leading to intermittent availability of electricity (ESMAP. 2000). This certainly reduces the otherwise significant advantage of hybrid systems compared to grid extension concerning supply security and results in an evaluation of just better performance. as was mentioned in the context of maintenance requirements already. It is therefore assessed that biogas systems offer a lower degree of security on energy supply.D. . no alternative energy source is available in case of shortages of fuel. However. It can generally be stated that biogas plants nowadays are a mature technology (Biogas. maintenance or repair is likely to take a long time. a recent survey estimates that roughly three-quarters of the SHS systems operate relatively well (Nieuwenhout.. in many regions in developing countries the quality of grid supply is rather low.. However. et al. On the other hand. On the other hand. While some projects report all SHS systems as being operative. others report 100% failures.J. 2000). the problem of biogas plants.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 100 - in case of breakdowns. The same study also reveals that larger SHS systems are working more reliable since deep discharge of batteries occurs less frequently in larger systems (Nieuwenhout. F. Information concerning reliability of SHS is very limited and does not give a consistent picture. in cases of system breakdowns no back-up with other energy sources can stabilise electricity generation if no diesel genset is available. being average in the comparative assessment here. However.. lies in the fact that once the system is down.

2003.0394 ×   Own calculation based on available cost data Investment   P   in [€/kW] kW  Schüco 54 Battery bank: 333 €/kWh for a 12V. in Eschborn/Germany. Bopp. Battery 5 years. Tower) For Plants ≤ 10kW: Costs = 4309 × exp − 0. Geis.000 € Cabinet. 55 Personal Recommendation given by Mr. 2003. Assembly and Commissioning: 15% of total investment Transport: 1. 4.007 × Diesel Genset: Costs = 345. G.5kW: 5. 2003. during a telephonme interview on August.000 € Operating Costs Manpower. 2003.000 € Planning. H. on August 14th. Puls. 56 Personal Comment given by Mr.63 × exp − 0. Internal Wiring: 6.000 € Local grid. former KfW staff member. Körner during a telephone interview on August 18th. 54 Personal Comment given by Mr. Table D. others: own assumption Interest Rate: 6% Miscellaneous Lifetime system components: PV modules 20 years. Körner during a telephone interview on August 18th. the following basic assumptions were made.. Cables. Wind generator 12 years. Inverter and Charge Controller 10 years 52 Personal Comment given by Mr. 57 Personal Comment given by Jörg Baur.1068 × Costs/Details Source Schüco52   P  53  in [€/kW] kW  P   in [€/kW] kW  For Plants ≥ 10 kW: Costs = 2016.Annex D: Cost Analysis 101 Annex D: Cost Analysis For the cost analysis. Diesel Genset 10 years. 22nd. 2003.7 × exp − 0. 500Ah battery. Körner during a telephone interview on August 18th.1 Main Assumptions for the Cost Analysis Type of Costs PV Modules 400 €/kWp Wind Power Plants (incl... Support: 2. 53 P = Installed capacity in kW. 2003). Maintenance and Repair: Annually 4% of total investment Cost data SMA KfW55 Schueco56 Own estimation GTZ57 Own assumption For PV and Wind: (Sauer. GTZ. . D. the batteries are designed for a storage capacity of 2 days Inverter and Charge Controller “Sunny Island”.

600.38 Source (Diesel. The details are shown in the following tables.08 19. 2003.20 3.999.08 1.0 8. 1st.80 29.3 Investment Costs for Diesel Gensets Diesel Generator Mitsubishi MGE-1800 ROU Mitsubishi MGE-2900 ROU Capacity [kW] 1.60 Including 19 m tower Inventus Windpower GmbH Including 11 m tower (Heyde.40 2.97 3. 2003)60 58 Personal Comment given by Mr.117.Annex D: Cost Analysis 102 The investment costs for wind power plants and diesel gensets are based on the costs for different plants from various manufacturers.80 6.17 1.0 1.94 297.0 6.68 2. Table D.0 80.80 6.00 60. .165.294.499.381.5 2.970.0 3.509.599.48 3. 2003.762.0 60. 1st.0 10.490.420.9 Total Investment Costs [€] 629. 2003) Remarks Source INCLIN 600 AC 752 turbo MAJA 1000 INCLIN 1500 neo GRT 2000 INCLIN 3000 neo INCLIN 6000 neo Inventus 6 GRT 8000 AIRMAXX-10 Novatec ML10Eco Vergnet GEV10/20 Fuhrländer FL30 Vergnet GEV15/60 Lagerwej LW18 6.2 Investment Costs for Small-Scale Wind Power Plants Name Capacity Total Investment Specific Investment Costs [€] Costs [€/kW] [kW] 0.75 1.725.0 20.17 (Heyde.802.022.40 17.954. 59 Personal Comment given by Mr.68 1.00 2. Twele during a telephone interview on September.471.44 78.0 30.324.67 5.40 2.68 4.90 862.00 89.199.00 1.51 1.8 1.751.39 Specific Investment Costs [€/kW] 349.310.998.60 5.24 10.981.84 1.0 17.680. 2003) Including 11 m tower Bundesverband 58 Windenergie Including 18m tower Including 27m tower Including 30m tower Including 40m tower Bundesverband 59 Windenergie Table D.40 3.970.6 0.742.0 3.8 2.00 9.069.980.0 10.373. Twele during a telephone interview on September.

51 Specific Investment Costs [€/kW] 310.51 1.46 Source (Diesel.91 1. 2003)61 The decline in specific investment cost per kW is reflected in the following graphs.693.37 251.242.431.00 0.13 275.000 0 0 5 10 15 Installed Capacity [kW] Specific Investm ent for Plants =>10kW Specific Investment [€/kW] 2.116.000 3. 2003). Calculated Exchange Rate: 1 US$ = 0.00 200.500 1.007 ×  in [€/kW] kW   Installed Capacity [kW] P  Costs = 345.000 500 0 0 50 100 Installed Capacity [kW] P   Costs = 4309 × exp − 0.67 1.00 300.1 Specific Investment for Wind Power Plants and Diesel Gensets 60 61 Calculated Exchange Rate: 1 US$ = 0.63 × exp − 0.500 2.1068 ×  in [€/kW] kW   Specific Investm ent for Diesel Gensets Specific Investment [€/kW] 400.000 2.67 279.6 12 Total Investment Costs [€] 1.000 4.09 224. 2003).000 1.90114 € (September 8th.00 0 5 10 15 P   Costs = 2016.90114 € (September 8th. .20 2.000 5.0394 × kW    in [€/kW]  Figure D.00 100.Annex D: Cost Analysis 103 Diesel Generator Yamaha EF4000DE Yamaha YG4000D Yamaha EF5200DE Yamaha EF6600DE Yamaha EF12000DE Capacity [kW] 4 4 5. Specific Investm ent for Plants <=10kW Specific Investment [€kW] 6.2 6.7 × exp − 0.657.000 1.

Here. With this data.6659 in the case of smaller plants and R2 = 0.200 9.000 9.800 8.1 Investment Costs The analysis investment costs revealed the following results. D. this leads to the following range of investment costs.200 8. PV/Diesel 9.000 6.000 10.1 × exp − 0.5 × exp − 0.7163 for bigger plants were obtained.600 8.2 Specific Investment for Hybrid Systems of Different Capacities For the different village sizes as presented in Annex A.Annex D: Cost Analysis 104 While the regression is rather fair in the case of diesel gensets with a regression coefficient of R2 = 0.0037 ×  in [€/kW] Costs = 11061 × exp − 0.000 10.0009 ×  in [€/kW]  in [€/kW] Costs = 9564.000 0 20 40 60 80 Installed Capacity [kW] Investment Costs [€/kW] P  P    Costs = 8241.000 8. Investment Costs [€/kW] .000 7.000 6.0027 ×  in [€/kW] kW  kW    Figure D.400 9.000 9.7 × exp − 0.000 0 50 100 150 11. the analysis of investment and electricity generating costs was performed.000 0 20 40 60 80 Installed Capacity [kW] PV/Wind at 2 Days Battery 14. still being relatively poor. this is not the case for wind power plants.0034 × kW  kW    PV/Wind at 1 Day Battery 10.8422.000 8.000 12.000 6.000 8.000 8.400 8. it was distinguished between plants of smaller capacity ≤ 10 kW and plants of higher capacity ≥ 10 kW in order to improve the accuracy of regression.000 0 20 40 60 80 Wind/Diesel Investment Costs [€/kW] Investment Costs [€/kW] Installed Capacity [kW] Installed Capacity [kW] P  P    Costs = 8880. Regression coefficients of R2 = 0.000 7.

44 12.20 10.86 D.4 Range of Investment Costs for Hybrid Systems System PV/Diesel Systems Wind/Diesel Systems PV/Wind Systems at 2 days battery capacity PV/Wind Systems at 1 day battery capacity Investment Costs at 30 Households [€/W] 9. For the different systems and varying diesel fuel prices.18 Investment Costs at 300 Households [€/W] 8. By adding the annuities of operation costs for manpower. Division of the annual costs by the annual electricity production leads to the specific electricity generating costs per kWh.00 9.05 9. the following formula was used to calculate the annuity of the investment costs of single components: a = C0 × (1 + i )n − 1 i × (1 + i ) n With a i = Annuity = Interest Rate = 6% C0 = Capital Value n = Component Lifetime The total annuity of investment is then the sum of the single annuities.Annex D: Cost Analysis 105 Table D. the total annual costs can be calculated. the following results were obtained: .67 6. With the help of the underlying assumptions as presented on page 101. maintenance.23 8.2 Electricity Generating Costs The electricity generating costs per kWh were calculated with the help of the annuity method. repair and diesel fuel.

63 0.55 1.49 1.54 1.69 1.66 1.53 1.61 0.49 1.46 1.44 1.49 1.51 1.47 1.48 1.50 1.45 1.46 1.49 1.50 1.52 1.47 1.49 1.46 0.72 1.53 1.42 1.42 1.48 1.44 1.50 1.8 1.65 1 1.48 1.49 1.44 1.46 1.48 1.48 1.57 1.46 1.49 1.53 1.48 1.49 1.46 1.53 1.50 1.49 1.59 0.51 1.71 1.46 1.50 1.2 1.55 1.48 1.2 1.43 1.48 1.44 1.51 1.48 1.45 1.67 1.43 1.54 1.50 1.9 1.45 1.50 1.3 1.42 1.43 1.48 1.49 1.70 1.49 1.46 1.46 1.63 0.47 1.47 1.47 1.54 1.52 1.45 1.46 1.47 1.45 1.49 1.58 1.70 1.48 1.8 1.45 1.50 1.5 1.50 1.51 1.43 1.43 0.44 1.44 1.52 1.48 1.49 1.47 1.44 1.45 1.47 1.1 1.45 1.1 1.48 1.46 1.51 1.68 1.47 1.49 1.73 1.52 1.67 1.49 1.46 1.53 1.50 1.45 1.45 1.68 1.46 1.42 0.47 1.53 1.61 0.51 1.54 1.48 1.71 1.47 1.47 1.49 1.55 1.46 1.6 1.65 .49 1.44 1.44 1.48 1.51 1.68 1.73 1.6 Electricity Generating Costs of Wind/Diesel Systems [€/kWh] Number of Households 30 35 40 Diesel Fuel Price [€/l] 0.69 1.51 1.3 1.49 1.51 1.48 1.4 1.48 1.49 1.43 1.45 1.46 1.7 1.43 1.51 1.47 1.45 1.43 0.64 1.49 1.48 1.44 1.51 1.45 0.54 1.45 1.47 1.49 1.50 1.51 1.49 1.45 0.47 1.45 1.70 1.48 1.52 1.52 1.50 1.47 1.47 1.5 1.46 1.47 1.46 1.48 1.47 1.46 1.Annex D: Cost Analysis 106 Table D.44 1.49 1.52 1.52 1.56 1.48 Table D.44 1.44 1.50 1.49 1.48 1.50 1.51 1.52 1.45 1.48 1.46 1.49 1.46 1.48 1.45 1.49 1.47 1.44 1.49 1.45 1.53 1.47 1 1.43 1.56 1.43 1.48 1.48 1.43 1.53 1.46 1.45 1.45 1.47 1.47 1.49 1.45 1.5 Electricity Generating Costs of PV/Diesel Systems [€/kWh] Number of Households 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 175 200 225 250 275 300 Diesel Fuel Price [€/l] 0.56 1.50 1.53 1.51 1.48 1.44 1.55 1.50 1.49 1.47 0.47 1.46 1.48 1.50 1.51 1.47 1.48 1.6 1.52 1.47 1.48 1.47 1.44 1.43 1.45 1.46 1.53 1.66 1.53 1.43 1.60 0.44 1.48 1.51 1.9 1.47 1.50 1.52 1.52 1.45 1.50 1.47 1.46 1.46 1.51 1.51 1.47 1.4 1.50 1.53 1.55 1.47 1.52 1.47 1.45 1.64 0.49 1.54 1.48 1.69 1.45 1.51 1.44 1.65 1.48 1.43 1.47 1.43 1.48 1.50 1.42 1.62 0.52 1.47 1.50 1.47 1.47 1.50 1.49 1.44 0.46 1.45 1.7 1.46 1.46 1.

59 1.44 1.45 1.42 1.50 1.49 1.51 1.47 1.57 1.46 1.48 1.52 1.50 1.50 1.54 1.44 1.53 1.50 1.5 1.47 1.41 1.43 1.45 1.46 1.44 1.46 1.55 1.51 1.55 1.53 1.47 1.43 1.46 1.48 1.45 1.51 1.1 1.51 1.49 1.53 1.51 1.40 1.47 1.46 1.46 1.51 1.44 1.48 1.50 1.2 1.55 1.45 1.58 1.54 1.48 1.47 1.48 1.56 1.54 1.48 1.51 1.53 1.4 1.48 1.55 1.44 1.57 1.46 1.47 1.55 1.48 1.41 1.48 1.6 1.56 1.50 1.60 1.51 1.49 1.49 1.50 1.45 1.46 1.48 1.49 1.49 1.51 1.41 1.51 1.43 1.51 1.60 1.63 1.52 1.7 1.51 1.50 1.47 1.52 1.41 0.42 0.50 1.49 1.46 These figures can be illustrated with the graphs on the following page.49 1.46 1.46 1.53 1.53 1.50 1.49 1.62 1. .50 1.56 1.45 1.53 1.48 1.42 1.47 1.46 1.45 1.49 1.46 1.44 1.51 1.55 1.48 1.46 1.49 1.51 1.59 1.51 1.53 1.53 1.50 1.43 1.49 1.50 1.43 0.47 1.48 1.50 1.51 1.43 1.44 1.52 1.51 1.48 1.48 1.43 1.9 1.55 1.56 1.48 1.58 1.52 1.50 1.50 1.44 0.48 1.48 1.45 1 1.45 1.50 1.47 1.48 1.61 1.42 1.52 1.40 0.51 1.53 1.52 1.44 1.56 1.47 1.49 1.45 1.50 1.49 1.53 1.47 1.54 1.42 1.Annex D: Cost Analysis 107 Number of Households 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 175 200 225 250 275 300 Diesel Fuel Price [€/l] 0.52 1.45 1.45 1.48 1.54 1.46 1.49 1.56 1.42 1.45 1.61 1.54 1.45 1.57 1.47 1.50 1.59 1.47 1.47 1.51 1.43 1.46 1.53 1.43 1.57 1.49 1.53 1.47 1.46 1.48 1.49 1.55 1.54 1.45 1.48 1.52 1.52 1.54 1.44 1.52 1.44 1.48 1.41 1.49 1.44 0.3 1.42 0.52 1.40 0.61 1.44 1.46 1.46 1.47 1.59 1.58 1.53 1.50 1.52 1.49 1.51 1.53 1.51 1.52 1.56 1.47 1.54 1.52 1.55 1.49 1.44 1.53 1.8 1.49 1.50 1.

60 1. This observation is supported by the investigations of the Fraunhofer Institute in (Sauer.60-1.3 Illustration of Electricity Generating Costs for PV/Diesel 1.50 Figure D. which they are likely not to fall below.Annex D: Cost Analysis 1.55-1.45-1. seem to reach a threshold value at all diesel fuel prices.80 Electricity Costs [€/kWh] 1.60 Electricity Costs [€/kWh] 1. 1999).60 1.45 1.30 1.50-1.50 1. D.70 1.50 1.20 30 45 60 110 140 170 225 Num ber of Households 75 90 0. where it is calculated that electricity generating costs are .60 1.50 1.70 1.50-1.40 1. meanwhile.4 Illustration of Electricity Generating Costs for Wind/Diesel The cost analysis of hybrid systems here reveals that electricity generating costs are decreasing with higher loads and lower diesel fuel prices. This is due to the fact that the decline in investment costs of diesel gensets at certain installed capacities does not trade off the high investment for the PV modules anymore.55 1. The buckling in the curve progression is a result of the different equations used for small and big wind generators.1 300 1 Diesel Costs [€/l] 1.40 1.40-1.80 1...70-1. where costs decline over the whole area of investigation due to the decrease in specific investment costs for wind power plants with higher capacities.30 30 45 60 110 140 170 225 Num ber of Households 75 90 0.35 1.45 108 Figure D.55 1. et al.40-1. This effect is stronger in the case of Wind/Diesel systems.1 300 1 Diesel Price [€/l] 1. PV/Diesel systems.

98 0. the following results were obtained with regard to electricity generating costs per kWh: Table D.53 1.54 1.12 1.64 1.58 1.01 1.04 1.98 .57 1.00 0.52 1.54 1.56 1.66 1.01 1.58 1.03 Euro/kWh for systems with lower annual consumption of 15.03 1.01 1.56 1.07 1.55 1.58 1.69 1.54 1.58 1.22 1.03 1.53 1.99 0.03 1.98 0.18 1.62 1.15 1. For PV/Wind systems.59 1.10 1.7 Electricity Generating Costs PV/Wind Number of Households 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 175 200 225 250 275 300 PV/Wind Systems with Battery Capacity for 2 Days 1.02 1.03 1.55 1.56 1.000 kWh and at an interest rate of 6%.73 1.00 1.56 1.99 0.52 1 Day 1.54 1.00 1.01 1.57 1.76 1.04 1.05 1.09 1.63 1.02 1.Annex D: Cost Analysis 109 likely not to become lower than 1.

Annex D: Cost Analysis 110 The analysis of PV/Wind systems shows the high dependency of electricity generating costs from the size of the battery bank. 2002) PV/Diesel hybrid system for Sevilla/Spain with costs on planning. F.000 kWh/a 77% 0. Result o Electricity generating costs of 1. 1.0 % 37.34 Euro/kWh. These costs increase for remote regions. transport and construction for Kassel/Germany. the circumstances are just moderately suited for fully renewable coverage of electricity demand.3 Electricity Generating Costs from Different Sources Institut für Solare Energieversorgungstechnik (ISET) in (Kininger. Assumptions o Electricity Consumption: o Solar Coverage Rate: o Diesel Fuel Price: o Interest Rate: o Labour Costs: 2. 11.9 kWp 6.. Assumptions o Electricity Consumption: o Capacity PV Modules: o Capacity Diesel Genset: o Battery Bank: o Inverter: o Energy Management System applied o Global radiation in Sevilla/Spain: o Diesel Costs: o Interest rate: o Labour Costs: 2.30 Euro/l 6% 350 Euro/d . For the chosen location of Trapani/Italy with annual global radiation of 1.0 kWh 6.664 kWh/m2/a and under the assumption of 2. 1999) PV/Diesel hybrid system for Mexico City.752 kWh/m2/a 1.00 Euro/l 5. Fraunhofer Institut für Solare Energiesysteme ISE in (Sauer. Result 50 kWh/d 9.. D.76 Euro kWh. D.5 Euro/h Electricity generating costs of 0..6 kWh 1. 1. et al.6 kW 96.000 full load hours for wind generators.

Annex D: Cost Analysis 111 National Renewable Energy Laboratory(NREL)/University of Delaware in (Byrne. Results Table D. 1998) PV/Wind Household hybrid systems for Inner Mongolia. PV/Wind hybrid systems (300 W Wind.837 6. 100 W PV) for household electrification. Inner Mongolia System specification PV-Battery-Inverter System (100 W) Wind-Battery-Inverter System (300 W) Wind-PV-Battery-Inverter System (300 + 100 W) Investment costs [RMB] 6. with large hybrid systems being less expensive.720 Operating costs/year [RMB/a] 100 119 119 Table D. Result 1. 1... in (GTZ.82 US$/l 12% Levelised costs based on field analysis of battery’s lifetime. J. Shen. Electricity Generating Costs: 0.72 US$/kWh.. China.85 US$/kWh Wind/Diesel Village System 0.37 US$/kWh .43 US$/kWh – 0.8 Investment and Operating Costs of Different Household Systems. Costs are related to the size of the system. B.9 Electricity Generating Costs of Hybrid Systems in Inner Mongolia PV/Diesel Village System 1. Assumptions o Global radiation: o Wind Energy Density: o Capacity Wind: o Capacity PV: o Diesel Fuel Price: o Interest Rate: 2.087 11.150 kWh/m2/a 150 W/m2 300 W 100 W 0. W. Wallace. Gesellschaft für technische Zusammenarbeit GTZ. 2003) Application of PV/Diesel and Wind/Diesel hybrid systems for village electrification.75 US$/kWh PV/Wind Household System 0.

5 € 1.825 22.59 €/kWh . 2002) Table D. ratio 80:20 Investment costs in € 11.75 € 1.51 €/kWh 1.450 23.45 €/kWh 1.70 €/kWh Electricity Generating Costs at Diesel Price of 1.10 5 kW Hybrid Systems at Different Diesel Prices Capacity: 5 kW Electricity Output: 2.84 €/kWh 1. ratio 80:20 Wind/Diesel.190 kWh/a Diesel Genset PV/Diesel.740 Electricity Generating Costs at Diesel Price of 0.Annex D: Cost Analysis 112 Wuppertal Institute in (Wuppertal Institute.

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