Integrated Analysis of Hybrid Systems for Rural Electrification in Developing Countries

Timur Gül

Supervisor and Examiner Assoc. Professor Jan-Erik Gustafsson Division of Land and Water and Water Resources Engineering Royal Institute of Technology

Supervisor in Germany Dr. Dirk Aßmann Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment, Energy

Reviewer Michael Bartlett Department of Energy Processes Royal Institute of Technology Stockholm 2004

TRITA-LWR Master Thesis ISSN 1651-064X LWR-EX-04-26

Abstract

I

Abstract
Around 2 billion people world-wide do not have access to electricity services, of which the main share in rural areas in developing countries. Due to the fact that rural electricity supply has been regarded as essential for economic development during the Earth Summit on Sustainable Development in 2002, it is nowadays a main focus in international development cooperation. Renewable energy resources are a favourable alternative for rural energy supply. In order to handle their fluctuating nature, however, hybrid systems can be applied. These systems use different energy generators in combination, by this maintaining a stable energy supply in times of shortages of one the energy resources. Main hope attributed to these systems is their good potential for economic development. This paper discusses the application of hybrid systems for rural electrification in developing countries by integrating ecological, socio-economic and economic aspects. It is concluded that hybrid systems are suitable to achieve both ecological and socio-economic objectives, since hybrid systems are an environmental sound technology with high quality electricity supply, by this offering a good potential for economic development. However, it is recommended to apply hybrid systems only in areas with economic development already taking place in order to fully exploit the possibilities of the system. Moreover, key success factors for the application of hybrid systems are discussed. It is found that from a technical point of view, appropriate maintenance structures are the main aspect to be considered, requiring the establishment of maintenance centres. It is therefore recommendable to apply hybrid systems in areas with a significant number of villages, which are to be electrified with these systems, in order to improve financial sustainability of these maintenance centres. The appropriate distribution model is seen as being important as well; it is thought that the sale of hybrid systems via credit, leasing or cash is the most likely approach. In order to do so, however, financial support and capacity building of local dealers is inalienable.

Table of Contents

II

Table of Contents
Abstract ........................................................................................................................I Table of Contents....................................................................................................... II List of Figures ........................................................................................................... IV List of Tables.............................................................................................................. V Acronyms .................................................................................................................. VI 1 1.1 1.2 2 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1 Objective ........................................................................................................... 2 Methodology...................................................................................................... 2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply ........................................................... 4

2.1 Decentralised Electrification .............................................................................. 4 2.1.1 Diesel Generating Sets ....................................................................................... 4 2.1.2 Renewable Energy Technologies ....................................................................... 5 2.2 2.2.1 2.2.2 2.2.3 2.2.4 2.3 3 Hybrid System Technology................................................................................ 6 Relevance .......................................................................................................... 6 Hybrid Systems in Developing Countries........................................................... 7 Other Hybrid Systems........................................................................................ 9 Technical Aspects ............................................................................................ 11 Grid-based Electrification ................................................................................ 14 Analysis of Impacts ........................................................................................ 16

3.1 Scope of the Analysis....................................................................................... 16 3.1.1 Scenario Definitions......................................................................................... 16 3.1.2 Modelling Assumptions ................................................................................... 18 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4.1 3.4.2 3.4.3 The Concept of Indicators of Sustainability...................................................... 18 Developing an Indicator Set for Energy Technologies...................................... 19 Analysis of Sustainability ................................................................................ 21 Ecological Dimension ...................................................................................... 21 Socio-Economic Dimension............................................................................. 27 Economic Dimension....................................................................................... 33

3.5 Results and Discussion..................................................................................... 42 3.5.1 Results ............................................................................................................. 42 3.5.2 Discussion ....................................................................................................... 45

.... 53 Financing .1 Baseline .............................................................2 Electricity Generating Costs............................................................................................................................................. 57 Capacity Building .2 4.................................................................................................... 110 Terms of Reference .....3 5............................................................................................................................................ 75 B........ 87 C.................................. 104 D.............................. 75 B......................................... 64 Summary and Conclusions ......... 49 Project Description ................................................ 93 Annex D: Cost Analysis ............................................................................................................ 63 Political Factors ......................3 Electricity Generating Costs from Different Sources ............................................... 47 4......4 5.........3 5 5....2 4..... 68 A...........2................... 68 A..2 Modelling Results .......................................................................................................................................... 47 4............ 66 Annex A: Electricity Demand and System Design................................ 113 ...................................1 Scenario Definitions ... 47 4...............1 Ecology. 60 Technical Aspects .........................1 Calculation of Electricity Demand............................3 Economic Issues................................................................................................................................................................1................. 105 D...1 Hybrid Systems in Indonesia........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 101 D..................Table of Contents III 4 Project Examples ........................................................................................................1 5...........2.. 86 C................................................................................................ 79 Annex C: Analysis of Impacts ....................................... 47 4................................................1......... 52 Key success factors........................... 49 Aspects of System Dissemination .........................................................................6 6 Hybrid Systems in Inner Mongolia..................................2 System Design ........................................................................................5 5........................................................................1 4............................. 53 Organisation ....................... 86 C........................................................................................2 5.......................2 Project Description ...............................................................................2..........................................................1 Investment Costs............... 49 Baseline ....................................................................... 62 Assessment of Electricity Demand and Potential for Renewable Energies....2 Socio-Economic Issues........................... 70 Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations ...................................

....................................11 Comparative Assessment of Potential for Economic Development ........................1 Specific Investment for Wind Power Plants and Diesel Gensets ..................................19 Comparative Assessment of Supply Security.......................5 Cumulative Energy Demand (Primary Energy)...7 Comparative Assessment of Noise Pollution ..........................................1 GEMIS Results: Greenhouse Gas Emissions .............. 39 Figure 3.. 28 Figure 3..........8 Comparative Assessment of Cultural Compatibility and Acceptance ................ 22 Figure 3... 84 Figure B.......................4 Illustration of Electricity Generating Costs for Wind/Diesel ...................... 8 Figure 3..............1 GEMIS Results: GHG Emissions .........................................................3 Illustration of Electricity Generating Costs for PV/Diesel............................... 60 Figure B.....................9 Comparative Assessment of Supply Equity ..................................5 GEMIS Results: Cumulative Energy Demand of Primary Energy ..............................13 Comparative Assessment of Impacts on Health .......................1 Principle Circuit of Hybrid Systems ............. 23 Figure 3.. 108 Figure D................................ 85 Figure B........................ 25 Figure 3..........................2 GEMIS Results: Methane Emissions .........2 Comparative Assessment of GHG Emissions ...........................................List of Figures IV List of Figures Figure 2.. 42 Figure 3.......................................... 108 ...........................4 Selected Air Pollutants ..........................17 Comparative Assessment of Maintenance Requirements ......... 38 Figure 3......................4 Comparative Assessment of Air Pollutants Emissions .................................... 25 Figure 3.. 43 Figure 3...........3 GEMIS Results: Emissions of Air Pollutants........................15 Electricity Generating Costs in Comparison ............................................................. 81 Figure B......6 Cumulative Energy Demand According to Resources.......... 80 Figure B. 32 Figure 3......................... 83 Figure B...............................1 Hybrid Village Systems: Distribution Steps .............................................. 33 Figure 3.........3 GEMIS Results: Air Pollutants ....... 23 Figure 3...........20 Comparative Assessment of Future Potential.......... 37 Figure 3..............................................10 Comparative Assessment of Participation and Empowerment. 41 Figure 3................. 44 Figure 3...................22 Results Socio-Economic Assessment ............ 30 Figure 3.............................. 26 Figure 3... 104 Figure D............. 31 Figure 3............14 Comparative Assessment of Investment Costs........12 Comparative Assessment of Employment Effects................ 24 Figure 3...... 29 Figure 3......6 Comparative Assessment of Resource Consumption ........... 85 Figure D...16 Comparative Assessment of Electricity Generating Costs..................18 Comparative Assessment Regional Self-Supply and Import Independence 40 Figure 3.23 Results Economic Assessment .......... 103 Figure D.........................2 Specific Investment for Hybrid Systems of Different Capacities... 36 Figure 3......................................... 44 Figure 5.......................21 Results Ecology Assessment ........................................

.......5 Electricity Generating Costs of PV/Diesel Systems [€/kWh]..........................5 Share of Technologies for Electricity Generation..................................................................................................... 70 Table A............ 111 Table D.....7 Electricity Generating Costs for Different Scenarios.............................. 35 Table 3....... 68 Table A.................8 Investment and Operating Costs of Different Household Systems.............................................................1 Scenarios and Technologies for Rural Electrification...................... 84 Table C......... Inner Mongolia..... 111 Table D....... 49 Table A... 112 .........1 Standard Household Characteristics.................... 109 Table D.......................................................................... 102 Table D................3 Cumulative Energy Demand (Primary Energy) ................................3 Investment Costs for Diesel Gensets... 101 Table D..............................................4 Main Assumptions for the Cost Analysis ................1: Initial Investment Costs for Diesel Gensets.....1 Main Assumptions for the Cost Analysis ...............................3 Peak and Base Loads for Different Village Sizes .... 68 Table A..................................................... 38 Table 4........ 34 Table 3......................2 Investment Costs for Small-Scale Wind Power Plants..............4 Main Modelling Assumptions.................... 102 Table D................ 106 Table D...................1 Amount of Greenhouse Gas Emissions ......................................3: Hybrid Systems at Different Diesel Prices ............3 Performance Assessment Scheme.1 Hybrid Systems in Inner Mongolia ... 36 Table 3...... 93 Table C..... 20 Table 3.....................................10 5 kW Hybrid Systems at Different Diesel Prices ............................. 106 Table D.................2 Air Pollutants.............................5 Specific Investment Costs of Hybrid Systems.. 80 Table B.............................................................................2: Electricity Generating Costs for Diesel Gensets .........2 Criteria and Indicators for the Assessment of Energy Technologies . 105 Table D.................................. 95 Table C...List of Tables V List of Tables Table 3........4 Range of Investment Costs for Hybrid Systems ......................................6 Electricity Generating Costs of Wind/Diesel Systems [€/kWh] ........................... 16 Table 3..... 96 Table D............2 Rich Household Characteristics . 19 Table 3.......9 Electricity Generating Costs of Hybrid Systems in Inner Mongolia ................... 69 Table A................................................................7 Electricity Generating Costs PV/Wind................................................................................................. 71 Table B................................6 Investment Costs of Different Scenarios for Rural Electrification ............ 82 Table B....................................

produces i. inverters Solar Home System World Health Organisation .e.Acronyms VI Acronyms AC CED CSD DC EMS GEF GHG GTZ KfW OECD PV Schueco SMA SHS WHO Alternating Current Cumulative Energy Demand Commission on Sustainable Development Direct Current Energy Management System Global Environmental Facility Greenhouse Gas Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Photovoltaic Schueco International KG. different solar energy systems SMA Regelsysteme GmbH. produces i.e.

however. will account for more than 60 % of this increase (IEA. Global consumption of primary energy resources. Developing countries. Today. which are especially suited for decentralised electricity generation. however. is to improve access to modern energy services. the compatibility to climate is better than for currently used options. 2. Social benefits related to improved energy services include poverty alleviation by changing energy use patterns in favour of non-traditional fuels. without on the other hand increasing reliance on fossil fuels. Around 2 billion people world-wide do not have access to modern energy services. solar and hydro power. 2002.4 billion people or 18 % of the world’s population without electricity supply (IEA. In response to the lack of electricity supply in developing countries. Higher availability of jobs. are the effect that can be expected from better energy services. Main hope is here attributed to the application of renewable energies as wind. 2002). 2002). the combating population growth by shifting relative benefits and costs of fertility towards lower rates of birth. is the instable energy provision due to the fluctuating nature of the resources. 2002). by catalysing the creation of small enterprises or livelihood activities in evening hours (WEHAB Working Group. the situation in 2030 will remain more or less unchanged with 1. Without states taking heavy financial initiatives. their improved access to modern energy services has been regarded as essential for sustainable development during the Earth Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg. and the creation of new opportunities for women by reducing the time for the collection of wood for cooking and heating (WEHAB Working Group. 2002). The outstanding key role in economic development. Renewable energies use environmentally sound technologies: their consumption does not result in the depletion of resources. The challenge. A pos- . however. especially in Asia. time that could be used for education or employment instead. Recent approaches meet this challenge with a focus on decentralised systems for the electrification of rural areas. A major problem related to the application of renewable energies in decentralised systems. thus.e. could not live up to experiences.1 Introduction 1 1 Introduction Recent research on the development of the world’s energy state and the future development scenarios show alarming developments: 1. 1996a). productivity increases or improved economic opportunities. and progress being made over the last 25 years has applied mainly to urban areas (The World Bank. This lack of access to electricity mainly applies to rural areas in developing countries. but additional measures are required as well. 3. which is a major occupation of women in developing countries. with the increase being mainly based on fossil fuels. major ones being economic and social goals. which had been attributed to energy services in the past. i. and their application strengthens the security of energy supply by using local resources. energy services are indeed seen as a major driving force to economic development. The effect of increasing global CO2-emissions will be the consequence. This is mainly due to the goals that are associated with the development of energy infrastructure. is likely to increase.

1 Introduction 2 sibility to solve this problem is to backup the renewable energy generator with another power generator in a so-called hybrid system. The findings of this research were then discussed with project developers at the fair Intersolar in Freiburg/Germany on June. which needs to be ensured by setting the right framework. 2003. These key success factors are related to aspects of financing. Solar Home Systems and biogas plants for electricity generation.1 Objective The objective of this paper is to analyse and assess the sustainability of the application of hybrid systems for rural electrification in developing countries. Several factors have been limiting to this work. Chapter 4 then describes experiences with projects in Indonesia and Inner Mongolia. which have already been applied in developing countries.is developed. accepting that sustainability is an ongoing dynamic process. while the potential of other such possibilities is briefly discussed as well. therefore. capacity building and others. socio-economic and economic issues . the question whether and to which extent these systems satisfy the expectations on rural electrification projects with regard to sustainable development. the different systems for energy provision being important for the comparative assessment of sustainability are presented first. this analysis is performed in comparative terms on the basis of an indicator set developed here. 1. several are currently under implementation. This approach. 14th. 1. For the assessment of sustainability in Chapter 3. and Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) on August. Moreover. organisation. 28th.2 Methodology To pursue the above objectives. Another objective here is to find key success factors for the application of hybrid systems. site visits could not be held and. 7th. 2003. Due to the absence of respective surveys. as well as with experts from Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW) on July. Firstly. although being known for quite some years already. In this paper. while chapter 5 then outlines the key success factors for the application of hybrid systems. A number of projects applying hybrid systems for electricity generation have already been carried out. Special attention is paid to hybrid systems. the information here is limited to the findings of the literature review and the interviews. which are of importance for any decentralised rural electrification project and especially for hybrid systems. The objective in investigating key success factors is to maintain the sustainability of a project for rural electrification with hybrid systems. has not been investigated yet and shall be matter of this paper. 2003. an indicator system on the three dimensions of sustainability – ecology. However. The sustainability of hybrid systems is assessed relative to the other potential decentralised electrification scenarios: diesel generator-based mini-grids. chapter 6 gives a summary and an outlook to the perspective of hybrid systems in developing countries. a literature research was performed first. . where hybrid systems were applied. is just now stepwise gaining importance. Finally. the extension of the conventional grid is considered as well. The different options for rural electrification are then investigated and compared with regard to these indicators.

What proves to be right in one country can be completely wrong for another country. the findings of this analysis are always to be seen as strongly generalised and their applicability must be proven anew in each case. Therefore. . the analysis of hybrid systems in developing countries in general can come only to rather vague results.1 Introduction 3 Moreover.

In a next step... Raptis. 2. centrally. power supply in developing countries for rural areas takes place in three different ways (Kleinkauf. Typically. accepting that no electricity can be supplied in times the genset is out of commission. which is due to the fact that they work very inefficiently when running just at fractions of their rated capacity. single diesel gensets can be applied for electrification. which are in operation in developing countries nowadays. Finally. 1996/1997): 1. most commonly diesel generating sets and renewable energies.2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply 4 2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply This chapter gives an overview on potential solutions for rural energy supply. F. 2. Different technological options are in practice. They provide a simple solution for rural electrification and can be designed for different capacities.. W. the options of importance for this work are discussed more in detail. Diesel gensets have problems with short durability. being adapted to the needs of the consumers. Generally. The approaches of local and decentralised electrification are obviously closely connected and can be met by similar technologies. The objective is to provide a technical background for the evaluation of these options in the following chapters. by expansion of interconnected grids. the electric current is produced within the village itself. 2000). due to repair or maintenance. this chapter will also briefly discuss the centralised approach of the extension of the conventional grid to rural areas. Those of importance for this paper are described more detailed firstly in the following. will be presented. the different hybrid systems. with the other gensets providing backup (ESMAP. Moreover. including technical aspects to be considered and main applications.1 Diesel Generating Sets Small diesel-power generating sets (diesel gensets) have been the traditional way to address the problem of the lack of electricity. by erecting or extending stand-alone regional mini-grids. 2.e.1 Decentralised Electrification In highly fragmented areas or at certain distances from the grid. i. potential other hybrid solutions will be discussed against the background of applying them in developing countries. decentrally. the decentralised approaches of regional mini-grid systems or local supply of single consumers can become competitive due to lower investments and maintenance costs compared to large scale electrification by expanding interconnected grids. the effi- . by supplying single consumers and load groups. The voltage of the generator is often adjusted to be higher than the required 220 Volt for the household because of high losses within the local distribution lines (Baur. 2000).1. 3. This problem can be met by using a group of diesel gensets. J. locally. In cases security of supply is not of major importance. With diesel gensets.

excrements from animal husbandry) for the production of biogas under anaerobic conditions2. hydropower and larger-scale photovoltaics.2 Renewable Energy Technologies The use of renewable energy technologies is a very promising approach towards meeting environmental. 2001). Moreover. which can be used in gas burners or motors 1 More potential renewable technologies include stand-alone wind turbines.. D.to 100-Wp photovoltaic array and a leadacid battery with charge controller supplying energy for individual household appliances (Cabraal. The electricity current is provided in direct current (DC). The application of inverters to provide alternating current (AC) at a voltage of 220 Volt is possible. frequent start-up and shut-down procedures decrease their lifetime as well.. One of the basic problems for the application of diesel generating systems in developing countries. The photovoltaic modules are usually installed on rooftops. but increases overall system costs. the transportation of diesel fuel can result in severe environmental damage.e.. islands) from higher developed regions so that the regular supply with diesel fuel becomes a logistical problem and an important financial burden even in countries.. they convert the insolation into electric current. 2001). Moreover. In 2001. wind farms. especially rural. 2. On a local level. L.. areas are far away or isolated (i.2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply 5 ciency of operation is between 25-35% (Turcotte. 1996). is more a problem related to infrastructure. two technologies are of high importance: Solar Home Systems (SHS) for supply of single consumers. and biogas for local mini-grids or single consumers.. as experienced for example at the Galapagos Islands. The originating gas consists of 55 to 70% from Methane (CH4). which is used for loading the battery. . thus. and very often old motors from cars are used for the purpose of electrification. spilling out 145. The systems work at voltages of 12 or 24 Volt. K. be adapted to individual needs.1 Both are presented in the following.. The battery supplies electricity to the consumer during evening hours and in case of insolation shortages due to unfavourable weather conditions.1. Cosgrove-Davies. the tanker Jessica ran aground close to San Cristobal. Biogas Biogas systems utilise micro-organisms for the conversion of biomass (i.e. F. A. however. Many. the capacity can technically be expanded easily and. 2 Anaerobic conditions: in absence of oxygen. the battery offers the possibility to meet peak load demand for short periods of time. 2000). A common 50 Wp can supply lighting and a TV/radio for several hours per day (Preiser. Schaeffer.000 gallons of industrial fuel and diesel and putting the sensitive ecosystems of the islands to high risks. Diesel gensets are typically just operated for around 4 hours in the evenings. Solar Home Systems Solar Home Systems (SHS) typically include a 20. M. Moreover. social as well as economic goals associated with rural electrification. where fuel is heavily subsidised. S. J. Sheriff. Pneumaticos. which requires high cross-sectional wiring in order to avoid high losses (Baur.

Biogas systems are widely used in India and China for the supply of single consumers or local mini-grids. 1999a). Main component of a biogas plant is the digestion tank (fermenter).e. In developing countries these other technology options have not yet gained importance. Hybrid systems can technically be designed for almost any purpose at any capacity. A system using complementary energy supply technologies has the advantage of being able to supply energy even at times when one part of the hybrid system is unavailable. Although other renewable energy resources than solar and wind can in principle be used in hybrid systems as well.. the system components. . solar cells and wind power plants” (Weber. radiant heaters. i.2. This can be avoided by the use of hybrid systems. this has so far been limited to pilot projects in industrialised countries.2. Photovoltaic and Wind Generators. A hybrid system can be defined as “a combination of different. incubators and refrigerators working on biogas (GTZ. 1999a). 2000) or for gas cookers/stoves. three different types of hybrid systems have been applied in developing countries. including Photovoltaic Generator and Diesel Generating Set (Diesel Genset). general technical aspects and potential applications. Wind Generator and Diesel Genset. resulting in intermittent delivery of power and causing problems if supply continuity is required. M. The presentation of these other potential options is left for section 2.1 Relevance One of the main problems of solar as well as wind energy is the fluctuation of energy supply.3. 2. where the organic substrate is decomposed in the three steps hydrolysis. biogas lamps.2 Hybrid System Technology Hybrid systems are another approach towards decentralised electrification. R. 2. 1995).2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply 6 for the production of electric current3 (Kaltschmitt. acidification and methane formation.. basically by combining the technologies presented above. but complementary energy supply systems at the same place. 1 m3 biogas is necessary (GTZ. So far. They can be designed as stand-alone mini-grids or in smaller scale as household systems. Main applications for rural electrification in developing countries include independent electric power supply for 3 To generate 1 kWh of electricity. This section wants to discuss available technology options.

Radio Relay Transmitters.2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply 7 - Villages. . The batteries act as “buffers”. Georg Weingarten. using the energy surplus to load the battery. . . 4 Personal Comment given by Mr. controlling the battery not to be overloaded.e.e.Irrigation systems. Figure 2. A charge controller. 2003).or long-term storage. A future option might be the hydrogen fuel cell. Germany. i. Hospitals. a diesel genset. .4. the renewable part of the system satisfies the energy demand. W. 2003). 6. cables.Desalination Systems. A charge controller regulates the state of load of the battery. A storage system to guarantee a stable output during short times of shortages. 2..e. etc. A secondary source of energy for supply in case of shortages.).1. on June 28th. 3. at the same time loading the battery.2 Hybrid Systems in Developing Countries A common hybrid system for the application in developing countries generally consists of the following main components: 1. wind and diesel generators in a hybrid system (Roth. Schools. . At favourable weather conditions. a renewable energy resource. a DC/AC inverter needs to be installed additionally. maintaining a stable energy supply during short periods of time (Blanco. Maintaining high availability with renewable energies alone usually requires big renewable energy generators.5 4. which might not be satisfied by the renewable system alone. i. Hybrid systems are applied in areas where permanent and reliable availability of electricity supply is an important issue.Farmhouses. combustion aggregates need to be used for medium. 2003. Installation material (safety boxes. which can be avoided with hybrid systems. All these components and the problems related to their application are further described in section 2.). . Residential Buildings. Rotating masses can be used for shorter time frames (seconds). in cases of low sunlight or low wind. 5..Hotels. TV/radio. . Energiebau Solarstromsysteme GmbH. Moreover.1 shows a principle overview of how to combine PV. i. The complementary resource produces the required energy at times of imminent deep discharge of the battery.4 2. plugs.2.2. A primary source of energy. Freiburg. The appliances (lighting.Missions. at Intersolar-Fair. Usually. 5 Storage systems in hybrid systems in developing countries are usually battery aggregates maintaining a stable output over a time frame of one or more days. J. the battery serves to meet peak demands. etc.

Bopp. since PV modules provide direct current. 2003. R. Energiebau Solarstromsysteme GmbH. Typically. Puls. Georg Weingarten. the rest being supplied with the diesel genset.2. in climatic regions like Germany a PV/Diesel hybrid system is designed to provide around 50% of the electricity from photovoltaic during winter.1. R. From a perspective of financial competitiveness.2.6 depending on the regional conditions and the design of the system. 2003).1 PV/Diesel Combining Photovoltaic arrays and a diesel genset provides a rather simple solution and is feasible for regions with good solar resources.. 7 Personal Comment given by Mr. 2003. at Intersolar-Fair. As can be seen in Figure 2. the hybrid solution using photovoltaic offers great potential in saving fuel. . The solar generator can provide about 100% of the electricity during summertime. Naturally.7 2. Freiburg. 2000). they can be applied in regions where average wind speed is around 3. PV/Diesel hybrid systems require a DC/AC-inverter if appliances need alternating current. while in winter this figure is less. on June 28th. H. Germany. The CO2 emissions decrease correspondingly. on June 28th.2 Wind/Diesel Wind/Diesel combinations are. Georg Weingarten.. Compared to the common solution for rural off-grid electrification using diesel gensets alone.. D. Energiebau Solarstromsysteme GmbH. Germany. G.1 Principle Circuit of Hybrid Systems 2. the observed fuel saving varies over the year. Freiburg. in principal. built up in the same way as are PV/Diesel systems. A project at Montague Island even reached an 87% decrease in fuel consumption (Corkish.. Lowe. et al. at Intersolar-Fair..2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply 8 Solar Generator Charge Control G Wind Generator Charge Control Battery Inverter Mini-Grid / Appliances G Diesel Generator Charge Control Figure 2.5 m/s already (Sauer. If wind 6 Personal Comment given by Mr.2. Experiences show annual fuel savings of more than 80% compared to stand-alone mini-grids on diesel genset basis.2.

2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply 9 speed is sufficient. if weather conditions are favourable. In regions. for a hikers’ inn in the Black Forest of Germany (Kaltschmitt. situated close to the Baltic Sea in Northeastern Germany. where two different resources complement each other. a PV/Wind hybrid system might ideally be supported by an additional diesel generating set for times of extremely unfavourable weather conditions. however.e. Generally.2. In the first stage. 2. the battery maintains a stable system. the wind turbine is in charge of the provision of energy.. depending on the availability of resources. hospital electrification.2. A PV/Wind hybrid system is able to provide energy all time of the day. 1996). the objective in designing the system is to maximise the exploitation of the renewable energy resource. i. A. This is obviously due to the fact that PV/Wind/Diesel hybrid systems involve a higher share of renewable energy resources. G. Of utmost importance is here that wind and solar energy supply complement each other so that energy provision is possible over the whole year.e.2. This kind of hybrid system has been implemented e. being highly reliable and resulting in a further reduction of diesel compared to other hybrid systems. Here.1 Biogas Hybrid Systems PV/Wind/Biogas ASE GmbH as the performing organisation has created an autonomous hybrid power supply systems for the purification plant of Körkwitz. the situation is different for PV/Wind systems. breakdowns in energy supply are possible. While for the other hybrid systems applying diesel gensets. the system was implemented using just wind energy and photovoltaic arrays.3. which is not suitable for some non-household applications.2. combinations in hybrid systems are worth discussing. 2003).g. However. being able to feed up to 30% of surplus energy under good performing conditions into the public grid. The main components of the system include a 250 kWp solar generator and a 300 kW wind turbine with 3 inverted rectifiers connected in parallel (Neuhäusser. During short periods of time with low winds. M. i. using the renewable energy resources photovoltaic. For the application in developing countries. Wiese. 2. accurate assessment of the resources is essential for the decision on the appropriate system design. it must be doubted whether this effect of further reduction of diesel use can trade off the higher investment and operation costs. combining any renewable resource with others is conceivable. The objective was to provide 80% of the necessary energy.3 Other Hybrid Systems The hybrid systems implemented in developing countries so far do not reflect the whole range of potential solutions. being replaced by the diesel generating set when low winds occur over longer periods of time.3 PV/Wind and PV/Wind/Diesel In some regions the exploitation of both wind and solar resources can become favourable. 2. however preparing the energy management for further expansion using biogas in a decentralised cogeneration plant. wind and biogas for energy provision. Thus. The PV/Wind/Diesel hybrid system has proven successful in Germany. . at coastal or mountain areas with high degree of solar radiation...

during late summer. R. Instead of the diesel genset.3. Especially in winter. However. 1999).2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply 10 Information on the performance of the installed system and about the further expansion with biogas could not be obtained within the framework of this work.2 Hydropower Hybrid Systems Wind/Large Hydropower On a seasonal basis. it is unlikely that these resources are combined in a project in developing countries. Wind/Biogas The concept of a Wind/Biogas system is to some degree similar to Wind/Diesel hybrid systems. Micro-hydroelectric generators are turbines that are able to op- . Generally it is thought that biogas plants instead of diesel gensets as backup for wind or PV systems offer an environmental benign approach towards rural electrification. microhydropower is more feasible. Depending on the management strategy and the scenario used for the type of consumers. 2002a). since this opportunity does not seem economically attractive. conventional gases as propane can be used instead. However. or some kinds of fuel cells can be used to generate electricity in addition to the wind turbine.. The engine is fuelled by biogas. small gas turbines. Combining three different types of renewable energy systems certainly involves investment costs too high for this purpose. If the production of biogas is at times not sufficient. however. 2003). This is due to the fact that the participating companies have been declared insolvent since implementation and the new operator of the systems could not be identified. more detailed information could. so that the potential should be more closely investigated. so that the feasibility of Wind/Large Hydropower systems needs to be assessed for each case individually. while hydro generators on rivers are usually at lower levels. 2. wind has the potential to take over electricity supply. the two resources wind and hydropower tend to complement each other to some extent (Iowa. when river flows are low. Since the combination of wind and hydropower offers just limited advantages. Modelling simulations proved that the availability of wind energy is upgraded by applying biogas systems additionally (Surkow. which is produced in an anaerobic digester. not be obtained. here engine generator sets. A reasonable statement on the applicability therefore cannot be given here. for some locations the situation might be different.2. additional secondary energy needed from conventional fuels (propane or diesel) accounts for 7-11% of the total amount of electricity. the adaptation of this hybrid system for rural electrification in developing countries seems unlikely especially from a financial perspective. wind resources are better at high elevations. However. another energy resource would therefore be necessary. and the combination of both is then disadvantageous. Wind/Micro-Hydro and PV/Micro-Hydro While hybrid systems with large-scale hydropower generators seem unattractive. For constant electricity generation. both resources might become low. Moreover. During the research for this work it was found out that these kind of systems are currently tested in developing countries in South Asia (ITDG. A key role can be assigned to the size of the systems’ gas storage tank and its operating management.

rapeseed or sunflowers. This approach. 2002b). but also common for the use of the single elements. including general technical aspects and problems of the system’s components as well as technical management aspects. gas turbines or fuel cells. being suitable for small rivers (Iowa. however. is still matter of research and currently more applicable for industrial purposes (Iowa. 2002). Problems and other general technical aspects. A careful assessment of water resources is therefore essential. since here start-up and shut-down procedures are less frequent. are briefly summarised below.1 General Aspects General problems occurring with the elements of hybrid systems are not only specific for hybrid systems.2.2. Instead of conventional diesel gensets. frozen in winter). the application in hybrid systems is advantageous in this respect. a gasification system might be applied as well. F. The decrease in efficiency is 1% for every 100 m above sea level. generators using vegetable oil for operation offer a potential solution. 2. To improve the situation of diesel dependence. producer gas is made from biomass in a fluidised bed gasifier and used to fuel internal combustion engines. A holistic approach to create this kind of infrastructure and to make the use of renewable energy technologies in developing countries sustainable is imperative for energy planners and development aid organisations. strongly depending on the way of operation.1. In comparison to the application of diesel gensets alone. 2. to mention but a few. .000 – 80. 2002). This. Although the production of vegetable oil requires an additional initial investment. Where rivers have inconsistent flow characteristics (dry in summer. with figures from 1.4. Moreover. being mostly produced in the industrialised countries. Vegetable oil can be made available by peanut plants.. 2002c). diesel generating sets are rather sensitive to climatic and geographic conditions. this can be traded off with later cost reduction due to fuel savings. as was further outlined in section 2.1. Here.2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply 11 erate under low elevation head or low volumetric flow rate conditions. a hybrid system applying wind or PV support can be attractive. and another 1% for every 5. In comparison to other technical devices.000 hours for generators with capacities less than 30 kW (Kininger. especially those specific to the adaptation in developing countries. The diesel generating set The non-continuous use of diesel generating sets always results in a reduction of lifetime due to the frequent start-up and shut-down procedures. motor generating sets have a wide range of operating hours.5 °C above a temperature of 20 °C (Wuppertal Institute. makes their adaptation in developing countries a rather difficult task. These plants are often locally available and CO2 neutral. Lack of infrastructure for renewable energies One of the key disadvantages of renewable energies is the fact that they apply new and not yet widespread technologies. and the accordingly missing infrastructure for maintenance of renewable energy technologies.4 Technical Aspects This section gives an overview on different technical aspects related to the application of hybrid systems in developing countries.

is a very sensitive and crucial part of the system. it is important to note that a battery’s capacity decreases over lifetime. 2003. Germany. the storage of power is meant to bypass short times of power shortages. Energiebau Solarstromsysteme GmbH. Therefore. the longer the battery’s lifetime. a battery installation should be designed based on the 80% of the nominal battery capacity (IEA. 8 Personal Comment given by Mr. 1998): 1. overcharge and a low electrolyte level should be avoided. Thus. resulting in lower overall costs. 1998). in most cases lead-acid batteries. Regulation of the current from the renewable energy generator in order to protect the battery from being overcharged. thus significantly reducing the utilisable capacity. 2. though being one of the least costly components in renewable energy systems. The following major aspects need to be considered when designing a battery bank for hybrid systems: Capacity Design: When designing a battery bank installation. where the nominal value is given by the manufacturer. The use of storage systems in hybrid power plants has a twofold effect: on the one hand. The performance of a battery bank is controlled with the help of a charge controller. This is due to the fact that an accurately working charge controller increases performance and lifetime of the battery bank. it also influences the overall performance costs of the system. Freiburg. 1999a). Deep discharge to less than 50% of the capacity. Low temperatures slow down the chemical reactions inside the battery. The more optimal the performance of the battery bank. The end of life of a battery is reached when capacity has declined to 80% of the nominal value. the application of a charge controller is essential. too. The charge controller. the battery offers support in times of peak demands. thus reducing the battery’s lifetime significantly. at Intersolar-Fair. daily control both of battery acid level and voltage are fundamental.2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply 12 The Storage System The storage device of hybrid systems. The optimal performance of this component highly influences not only the system’s performance. both high and low temperatures should be avoided as far as possible (IEA. is of high importance for the system’s reliability and highly influences the system’s maintenance costs (IEA. Georg Weingarten. which cannot be met by the renewable energy source alone. On the other hand. which guarantees that the battery is neither over-charged nor discharged too deeply. on June 28th. Furthermore.8 - - The Charge Controller The charge controller in renewable energy systems has two fundamental functions (IEA. In order to guarantee this. resulting in the need for suitable operation and management system. Effect of temperature: The nominal capacity is usually given at a battery temperature of 20°C. Most controllers additionally regulate the current to the load in order to protect the battery from discharge. . High temperatures result in an increase of corrosion velocity of the battery’s electrodes. 1999a).

000 – 3.. 1998). charge currents can be rather high. there are four major differences for diesel genset supported hybrid systems compared to “simple” systems with renewable energy technologies alone (IEA. Since hybrid systems are typically designed for higher loads than pure renewable systems. Other dispatch strategies are to turn on the genset only when the load is reasonably large and to run it at a loading to supply just enough power in order to keep the batteries from being discharged. one needs to distinguish two different scenarios: firstly. at Intersolar-Fair. PV/Wind hybrid systems). the objective of system control. Main problems related to batteries and the charge controller in hybrid systems include temperature control. Pneumaticos. the charge controller is giving the dispatch strategy. 2001). is different for hybrid systems using diesel gensets as a backup.. During this time.000 cycles. charge controllers are relatively less costly for the overall system. the main objective of applying charge control is to maximise the battery’s lifetime. the diesel genset runs at full loading. D. or to start the genset when the net load. A typical cycle life of hybrid systems’ battery banks consists of 2. without increasing the overall costs significantly. many charge controllers cannot be properly adjusted.e. Concerning the diesel genset itself.. the loading at which to operate. Georg Weingarten. S. in pure photovoltaic systems. on June 28th. making the charge control simpler. Energiebau Solarstromsysteme GmbH. 9 Personal Comment given by Mr. For the aspect of charge control. 2003. and not only that battery specifications are not always available. is also to minimise costs for diesel fuel and maintenance (IEA. This dispatch strategy is commonly quite simple: it can be determined by a low voltage point of the battery and a voltage point at which the battery is fully charged. sometimes it is even left to the user to switch on the genset (IEA. in hybrid systems relying on renewable energy technologies for power supply alone (i. F. and when to switch the genset off. in addition to the former. 1998). the control of charge and discharge basically works as it does in systems with just one renewable energy resource. There. The situation. which is often difficult.e. Battery banks in hybrid systems are generally relatively smaller and cycled more than. 1998): 1. batteries are also usually the first component suffering from abuse (Turcotte. Freiburg.2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply 13 For hybrid systems. . 3. meaning the load current minus the current available from the renewable energy generators. Sheriff. Germany. i. This increases the importance of regular equalisation and makes the cycle life the main factor determining the battery lifetime. using the power which is not required by the load to charge the battery bank (IEA. deciding when to turn it on.. Especially if the diesel genset is oversized. exceeds a certain threshold. This gives potential for more costly controllers with higher functionality. Since the genset is switched on in times the renewable energy resource cannot meet the demand. 4. however. 1998). 9 2. The fact that power is available on demand in diesel genset supported hybrid systems eliminates many of the vagaries associated with the fluctuating nature of renewable energy resources.

2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply

14

Inverters In cases where the power supplied by the renewable energy generator is given in DC, a DC/AC-inverter needs to be installed additionally. This is due to the fact that most appliances needing AC current are less costly than those requiring DC current. There are different inverter models available, which are not to be discussed within this work. All of these models, however, need to meet the following requirements (Kaltschmitt, M., 2001/2002): optimal adjustment to the renewable energy generator proper energetic inversion to DC current compliance with the principles of netparallel operation

Inverters for hybrid systems are nowadays still considered as problematic and are in need for further development (Turcotte, D.; Sheriff, F.; Pneumaticos, S., 2001). Common problems related to their application in hybrid systems include faults during transition and difficulties in starting the generators. Moreover, available models often loose their parameters when being reset, and some faults additionally require manual reset (Turcotte, D.; Sheriff, F.; Pneumaticos, S., 2001). Modern inverter technologies available on the market not only provide the normal functions of an inverter, but additionally integrate the charge control. These appliances allow with their integrated system management an automatic control of the energy sources, the charging state of the battery and the power demand of the loads. 2.2.4.2 Energy Management Systems Energy Management Systems (EMS) are a modern possibility to improve supply security of hybrid or other systems applying renewable energy resources. It serves the function of the charge controller in a more flexible way, while at the same time serving additional functions. An EMS anticipates expected loads and prioritises them, co-ordinates the application of the different generators and optimises the exploitation of the renewable energy resource, and decreases the maintenance requirements by optimising the operation of the batteries (Benz, J., 2003).

2.3

Grid-based Electrification

Finally, the centralised approach of extending the conventional grid to rural areas is the last option to be described here. Grid-based electricity is delivered to consumers at three different levels (Baur, J., 2000): 1. The electric current produced in conventional central power plants is transported via high-voltage transmission lines at a voltage of 60 – 200 kilovolt over long distances; 2. On a regional level, the electric current is distributed to the villages via mean-voltage grid, normally at a voltage of 10 - 22 kilovolt. 3. Inside the village, the electric current is transformed to the voltage level of 110 – 220/230 volt of the households.

2 Technologies for Rural Energy Supply

15

Compared to European standards, the conventional grid in developing countries lacks redundancy. This leads to lower costs on the one hand, but to less reliability on the other hand as well. Grid-based electrification is often highly favoured by rural population despite the problems with reliable electricity supply. However, the extension of the conventional grid is often not feasible from an economic point of view. Factors to be considered include10 distance of the village from the grid, number of households to be connected to the grid within the village, and household density in the villages, meaning the distances between the different houses.

Moreover, the fact that many developing countries are heavily dependent on fossil fuels makes grid-based rural electrification unattractive not only from an economic, but also from an environmental perspective.

10

For further reading see: (Cabraal, A.; Cosgrove-Davies, M.; Schaeffer, L., 1996) and (Baur, J., 2000).

3 Analysis of Impacts

16

3

Analysis of Impacts

Although several projects with hybrid systems for rural electrification have been carried out already, surveys investigating these systems are so far very limited. In fact, no socioeconomic survey discussing the adaptation of hybrid systems in developing countries has been conducted to date. This problem led to the idea of discussing the application of hybrid systems in developing countries not in absolute terms, but rather to compare their sustainability relative to other likely scenarios of rural electrification, which will be defined in the following section. This chapter, thus, aims to analyse the impacts of rural electrification in developing countries with hybrid systems relative to the different technology options presented above. In doing so, it is tried to find out to which degree hybrid system likely provide a sustainable option for rural electrification. The assessment of hybrid systems compared to the different other scenarios is accomplished with a set of indicators, which is developed in 3.2 and 3.3, making possible a comparison on the three dimensions of sustainability: ecological, socio-economic and economic issues.

3.1

Scope of the Analysis

For the assessment, the fictitious case of electrification of a remote village in a rural area in a developing country is discussed. It is assumed that this village is electrified with different scenarios of rural electrification, and their impacts on the three dimensions of sustainability are analysed relative to each other. Table 3.1 gives and overview on the chosen scenarios. Table 3.1 Scenarios and Technologies for Rural Electrification
No. Scenario Technologies PV-Diesel 1 Decentralised Rural Electrification with Hybrid Systems Wind-Diesel PV-Wind 2 3 4 Decentralised Rural Electrification with Diesel Gensets Decentralised Rural Electrification with Renewable Energies Centralised Rural Electrification by Grid Extension Diesel Gensets SHS Biogas Country dependent

3.1.1 Scenario Definitions This section outlines the underlying assumptions for the different scenarios for rural electrification, as they will be used for the assessment in the following. Scenario 1: Hybrid Systems The analysis of the different hybrid systems is here restricted to those which have been applied already in developing countries, namely the combinations PV/Diesel, Wind/Diesel and PV/Wind. The reason to leave out potential other technologies, as they were presented in

operated by a private operator and being implemented privately. Where appropriate. the comparison of non-electrified areas with the electrification by different technologies seems to be inadequate in technical terms anyway. However. this is accounted for here. accepting that the comparison with a hybrid village system is to some extent not accurate. not under the guidance of development cooperation organisations. only a more limited number of the technical options will be available. the relevant combinations of hybrid systems are discussed as a whole. The scenario “Rural area without electrification” is not included in the analysis. SHS are accounted here because they are applied widely nowadays.2. Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets The comparison of hybrid systems with diesel gensets is based on the assumption that the considered rural village is for this scenario supplied by a diesel-based mini-grid. This is due to two reasons: on the one hand. it is here often referred to experiences of two projects on rural electrification with hybrid systems. It is obvious that in practical cases. two typical options are investigated here in comparison to hybrid systems: SHS and biogas systems. The different scenarios are all discussed as real application scenarios. However. These projects took place in Inner Mongolia and Indonesia. meaning that a generator is applied for producing electricity. Scenario 3: Renewable Energies For electrification of rural villages with renewable energies. Scenario 4: Grid Extension The extension of the conventional grid to remote rural areas is in most cases unlikely due to usually large distances of rural villages to the grid and the corresponding considerable investment necessary for the extension. which more detailed information could be obtained for. which means that ideal conditions are not assumed. for the assessment of hybrid systems it is seen as important to include grid extension as well in order to accurately determine the quality of hybrid system electrification. . is that this kind of assessment would be based on too many assumptions and therefore be too speculative. the electrification of non-electrified areas has been regarded as essential to economic and social development during the Earth Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg. they are discussed each for themselves. It is assumed that the households of the considered village are electrified each with a SHS. The hybrid systems discussed here are designed for 24-hours electrification of a remote rural village. However. it is thought that the comparison with SHS will be supportive to identify the circumstances under which the application of hybrid systems is reasonable with regard to sustainability. but usually for household electrification only. Since SHS are not used for productive purposes. it is supposed that natural and other conditions for the realisation of the considered technical alternatives are given. 2002.3 Analysis of Impacts 17 chapter 2.3. and will be presented as examples in detail in chapter 4. For the assessment of hybrid systems. Biogas systems are investigated as village systems for electrification of the considered remote village. since it is seen as inappropriate for being discussed here. if necessary. It is rather a debate on principles but a question of analytical discussion. on the other hand.

The annual consumption results from a calculated specific consumption per household and an additional 40% excess consumption for productive purposes.2 Modelling Assumptions For the assessment of parts of the ecological and economic dimension. of which some of the most known on an international level have been set up by the Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).664 kWh/m2/a. the details of the calculations can be found in Annex A. Source: Meteosat. The hybrid systems are then designed accordingly to meet this demand with the ratio 4:1 in the cases of PV/Diesel and Wind/Diesel systems. This electricity demand is then met with the different scenarios for rural electrification in order to comparatively assess hybrid systems. Especially. no approved indicator system has been developed yet. the annual peak demand of the village was determined according to different possible village sizes. 3.2 The Concept of Indicators of Sustainability Measuring the degree of sustainability obviously is a difficult task.3 Analysis of Impacts 18 Parts of the ecological and economic analysis in the following could not be performed in general terms and required an accurate modelling of the considered remote village and the installed hybrid systems. how- 11 Global radiation: 1.1. The main assumptions are presented in the following. The need for such an indicator system. 3. and 1:2 in the case of PV/Wind systems. leaving much space for discussion and interpretation.11 Although this location is not situated in a developing country. summarising complex information and. For the design of the hybrid systems to electrify a village in Trapani. Indicators are used to give a comprehensive view on sustainability. A number of indicator sets have been developed. thus. Most commonly. the latter concept of indicators for societies as a whole has gained importance by understanding the global dimension of sustainability. The assessment of ecological issues is performed for a village with 170 households with a calculated annual peak electricity consumption of 48. The calculation of investment and electricity generating costs for the assessment of economic sustainability is then performed for different village sizes for the same location.126 kWh/a. . A system trying to describe and to quantify the degree of sustainability is the concept of indicators for sustainable development. the comparison with weather data from several other locations revealed that this location makes a generalised statement possible by offering average conditions. Trapani/Italy was chosen as an example with moderately suited weather conditions. creating a transparent and simplified system to provide information on the degree of sustainability both to decision-makers and the interested public. indicator sets have been developed and used to provide information on the state of sustainability of production processes or societies as a whole. For the task of evaluating the sustainability of different energy technology concepts.

Voß.1 0.05 12 Compare for example: (Aßmann.3 Analysis of Impacts 19 ever. D..3 0. 2003) or (Nill.1 0. They do. and also offering a comprehensive view on the their weak points from a perspective of sustainability. it allows a “relative” comparison of different technologies.4 0. a set of indicators measuring these criteria was developed. the three dimensions of sustainability – ecological.25 0. This led to the following set of indicators: Table 3. On the other hand. Friedrich.. provide the basis for the indicator set being developed within this work. however.1 0. 3.2 0..1 0. 2000).3 0.3 0. M.3 Developing an Indicator Set for Energy Technologies Available indicator sets for measuring the sustainability of energy technologies have been found to be inappropriate within the framework of this work since they are commonly adapted to the conditions of industrialised rather than to those in developing countries and they include too many indicators.. In a next step. Marheineke.1 0. evaluating their current state of sustainability relative to each other. A. the results being obtained by such an indicator set can provide a data base for the evaluation of the sustainability of a society as a whole. T. socio-economic and economic issues – needed to be broken down to a set of criteria describing these issues.1 0.2 0. Krewitt.1 0. is apparent and has been highlighted in a number of studies already. In a first step. 12 On the one hand.. .. with the indicators weighted relative to their importance for the respective dimension according to the author’s opinion.2 Criteria and Indicators for the Assessment of Energy Technologies Dimension Criteria Climate Protection Ecology Resource Protection Noise Reduction Indicator Greenhouse Gas Emissions per kWh Emissions of Air Pollutants per kWh Consumption of Unlasting Resources Noise Pollution Cultural Compatibility and Acceptance SocioEconomic Issues Overall SocioEconomic Matters Degree of Supply Equity Potential for Participation and Empowerment Potential for Economic Development Individual SocioEconomic Interests Low Costs and Tariffs Economic Issues Maintenance Economic Independence Future Potential Employment Effects Impacts on Health Investment Costs per W Electricity Generating Costs per kWh Maintenance Requirements Degree of Import Dependence and Regional Self-Supply Supply Security Degree of know-how Improvement Weighting 0. R.3 0. W.

where each indicator is presented and analysed for different energy technology options.3 Analysis of Impacts 20 The discussion of the relevance of the different indicators to the three dimensions of sustainability is left to the sections below. the indicators are then summarised for each dimension individually according to their respective weight for the dimension. For the economic dimension.. a detailed determination of differences can only be discussed on concrete case studies.13 However. the indicator of electricity generating costs is seen as being of highest importance because these costs are to be covered by the customers directly. . For the socio-economic dimension. A. aiming to analyse the three dimensions of sustainability as comprehensive as possible. the criteria of low costs and tariffs as well as maintenance are seen as most important criteria because of their high influence on the success of electrification projects. DomDom.3 Performance Assessment Scheme 2 Comparatively very good performance 1 0 -1 Comparatively poor performance -2 Comparatively very poor performance Average performComparatively good ance or no statement performance possible 13 As examples: (Barkat. The comparative assessment of hybrid systems with the other scenarios of rural electrification with regard to the different indicators is done with the following assessment scheme: Table 3. As an example.. emphasis is given to climate and resource protection due to their high importance for environmental sustainability. The extent to which technologies meet this objective should be weighted accordingly. investment costs. moreover. 2002). Maintenance. - In order to come to a conclusion on the performance of hybrid systems on the three dimensions of sustainability. the indicators for economic development and employment effects are emphasised in the weighting due to the fact that economic development is one of the major objectives of rural electrification. meanwhile. The weighting of the indicators is explained as follows: For the ecological dimension. 2002) and (Barnes. The discussion of sustainability in this chapter does not account for benefits or problems related to electrification in general. thus. while this work needs to stay on a more generalised level. This set of indicators tries to give a holistic picture. can be covered by other means. gender issues are not taken into account although this issue might be important in individual cases. The constricted number of indicators allows to give significant statements on the chosen criteria by being investigated intensively. is of key importance for the reliable performance of the electricity supply system and. weighted high as well. et al. for example donor organisations.. D. A. and the assessment of these kinds of general benefits of rural electrification has been matter of a lot of research work during the last years. Among these criteria.

but during their whole life cycle including i.oeko.3 Analysis of Impacts 21 It must be emphasised at this point that this assessment scheme only gives information on the relative sustainability of the different scenarios compared to each other. recycling. For the extension of the conventional grid. are closely linked to the occurrence of acid rain and have severe impacts on human health. 3. since it is not a detailed life cycle assessment. shall be shown as a relative comparison rather than as in absolute figures. CO = carbon monoxide. this electricity demand was met with the different technology scenarios. CH4 or N2O14 due to their contribution to the greenhouse effect over a time frame of 100 years.1 Climate Protection The degree of climate sustainability is here determined with two different indicators. For the modelling in GEMIS. the main results are presented here.e. . All of these emissions occur not only during operation of energy supply systems. China.16 The results of this analysis. only the results are presented here.4 Analysis of Sustainability This section analyses hybrid systems on the three dimensions of sustainability with the help of the indicators set up above. 14 15 CO2 = carbon dioxide. NOx. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are here measured in CO2-Equivalents per kWh. and South Africa) are chosen as representatives. Air pollutants are emitted in combustion processes as well. Greenhouse Gas Emissions per kWh. 3.1. three country examples (Brazil. The details of the modelling assumptions and a detailed discussion of the results can be found in Annex B. and compares them relative to the other options for rural electrification. operation. and Emissions of Air Pollutants per kWh.4. NOx = nitrogen oxide. For the relative comparison with the other scenarios. CH4 = methane. transport. this section presents only the assessment for hybrid systems in detail. SO2-Equivalents aggregate different air pollutants like SO2. dust or CO15 due to their acidification potential.de/service/gemis/. however. Annex C. They can be assessed with the help of GEMIS (Global Emission Model for Integrated Systems).1 Ecological Dimension 3. gives chapter for a justification of the results. production. SO2 = sulphur oxide. then. Conclusions on an absolute degree of sustainability cannot be drawn from this. CO2Equivalents aggregate the different greenhouse gas emissions as CO2. 16 Available at: http://www. For a better reading.4. The emission of air pollutants is here measured in SO2-Equivalents per kWh. N2O = nitrous oxide (laughing gas). a free download software provided by the German Öko-Institut. All of these gases are emitted as products of combustion processes.

000 10. PV/Wind systems result in lower greenhouse gas emissions than all other scenarios except SHS.1 GEMIS Results: Greenhouse Gas Emissions The comparison of GHG emissions per kWh shows that especially PV/Wind hybrid systems are highly preferential.000 20.000 30. The scenario of grid extension is described with the chosen countries Brazil. their performance is therefore worse.1. South Africa and China. In comparison to purely renewable energy systems.000 40. however.1.000 0 PV/ Wind/ PV/ Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South China Diesel Diesel Wind Af rica Figure 3. Figure 3.2 summarises the results of the analysis of GHG emissions on the basis of the comparative assessment scheme.1 Greenhouse Gas Emissions per kWh Scenario Comparison Figure 3.000 Greenhouse Gases [kg CO2-Equivalents] 50. diesel-based hybrid systems are advantageous. 60. which similar greenhouse gas emissions can be attributed to.1 shows the modelling results of GHG emissions attributable to the different scenarios for meeting the electricity demand of the chosen village.3 Analysis of Impacts 22 3. It shows that hybrid systems can be assessed as being supportive for the objective of decreasing GHG emissions compared to conventional energy systems.4. Compared to conventional energy systems. Purely renewable hybrid systems as PV/Wind are here performing even better than dieselbased systems. The GHG emissions resulting from diesel-based hybrid systems are higher due to the application of the diesel genset. .

the application of diesel-based hybrid systems is associated with more emissions of air pollutants compared to the grid of Brazil.2 Comparative Assessment of GHG Emissions 3. They are therefore strongly disadvantageous in this respect. Thus.3 Analysis of Impacts 23 2 1 0 PV/ Diesel -1 -2 Wind/ Diesel PV/ Wind Diesel SHS Biogas Grid Extension Figure 3. The other hybrid systems suffer in their performance mainly from the emission of NOx in the combustion process of the diesel generator. While Brazil applies mainly hydroelectric power and therefore hardly has significant emissions of air pollutants. The comparison with the conventional grid clearly shows a high dependence on the respective energy sources used in such grids.3 GEMIS Results: Emissions of Air Pollutants While SHS almost do not result in any emission of air pollutants due to the absence of a combustion process.1. 800 Air Pollutants [kg SO2-Equivalents] 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 PV/ Wind/ PV/ Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South China Diesel Diesel Wind Africa Figure 3. the amount of air pollutants is considerable in the case of biogas. These emissions result mainly from sulphur bound in the substrate. while they emit less air pollutants compared to the grids of China and South Africa.4.1. Diesel-based mini-grids result in the highest amount of air pollutants due to NOx emissions in the combustion process. . China and South Africa rely mainly on coal with the associated high SO2-emissions from sulphur bound in the coal.2 Emissions of Air Pollutants per kWh Scenario Comparison The comparison of emissions of air pollutants again shows a preference for the PV/Wind system. PV/Wind systems are advantageous in any case.

A comparatively good performance can be attributed to PV/Diesel. GEMIS investigates the cumulative energy demand (CED) in kWh.3 Analysis of Impacts 24 For the comparative assessment. This shows the assessment with GEMIS in Figure 3. 2 1 0 PV/ Diesel -1 -2 Wind/ Diesel PV/ Wind Diesel SHS Biogas Grid Extension Figure 3.5.1.17 It is therefore a measure to describe the extent to which renewable and non-renewable energy resources are consumed in order to provide electricity. . Wind/Diesel and biogas systems. The conventional grid is concluded to perform worst with regard to the emission of air pollutants.4.2 Resource Protection The degree of resource protection is here measured with the help of the indicator “Consumption of unlasting Resources”. both during operation and for the construction of the power plant. which is a measure for the whole effort on energy resources (primary energy) caused by the provision of products or services. Scenario Comparison The comparison of CED with GEMIS shows expected results: fossil fuelled scenarios involve a higher amount of non-renewable energy for the production of energy. The reason to investigate the CED rather than just the consumption of non-renewable resources is that the depletion of all resources is crucial for the environmental performance of energy systems. 17 Source: GEMIS. GEMIS is used as well. because most developing countries apply a significant share of fossil resources for electricity generation. PV/Wind systems and SHS are evaluated to perform comparatively best.4 Comparative Assessment of Air Pollutants Emissions 3. the availability of unlasting renewable energy resources as for example firewood is to be ensured as well. For the assessment.

3 Analysis of Impacts

25

250.000 200.000 CED [kWh] 150.000 100.000 50.000 0 PV/ Wind/ PV/ Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South China Diesel Diesel Wind Africa Non-renew able Renew able Others

Figure 3.5 GEMIS Results: Cumulative Energy Demand of Primary Energy Thus, here again PV/Wind systems are to be distinguished from diesel-based hybrid systems. PV/Wind systems involve a similar CED as do biogas systems and slightly more than SHS, while diesel-based systems here come out worse. While in comparison to diesel gensets, all hybrid systems perform better with regard to CED, the situation is different concerning the conventional grid. Since the CED as well strongly depends from the energy mix of the respective countries, it is here decided to give preference just to PV/Wind systems and rank diesel-based hybrid systems similar to the conventional grid. Figure 3.6 summarises the results of the assessment of this indicator on the basis of the assessment scheme.
2 1 0 PV/ Diesel -1 -2 Wind/ Diesel PV/ Wind Diesel SHS Biogas Grid Extension

Figure 3.6 Comparative Assessment of Resource Consumption

3.4.1.3 Noise Reduction Noise reduction is here measured with the help of the indicator „Noise Pollution”. Noise is a ubiquitous environmental problem, being more than just disturbing. A stringent interpretation of the term “health” as given by the World Health Organisation (WHO) allows to call noise a health problem (WHO, 1948). The effects of noise on health reach from aural detriment or deterioration to extra-aural health problems or the perturbation of well-being (Helfer, M., 1998/1999).

3 Analysis of Impacts

26

Although the absolute figure of noise pollution measured in decibel is of importance to measure the effect on human health, it is here abandoned to do so. This is due to the fact that on the one hand reliable data could not be obtained; on the other hand mitigation measures on severe noise pollution are available and applied in developing countries as well.18 Thus, this section is based on own assessment of the author, leaving out noise being generated during construction phase, as this applies to all scenarios. Assessment of Hybrid Systems PV modules do not create noise during operation. For the case of a PV/Diesel system, thus, the diesel genset is the only part generating noise during operation and through start-up and shut-down procedures. The noise originated by the diesel genset, however, can well be cushioned by building a capsule, i.e. a powerhouse, which is taken into consideration for the assessment here. Wind turbines create an additional buzzing noise by their rotating wings. This effect can be recognised as being disturbing. Moreover, the power distribution lines of the mini-grid further contribute with a buzzing noise as well. Scenario Comparison The comparison of the impacts of the different technologies shows a disadvantage of windbased hybrid systems, being due to the noise generated by the wind turbines.
2 1 0 PV/ Diesel -1 -2 Wind/ Diesel PV/ Wind Diesel SHS Biogas Grid Extension

Figure 3.7 Comparative Assessment of Noise Pollution For PV/Diesel hybrid systems, the assessment here is less negative. Still, the application of the diesel genset is disadvantageous in comparison to SHS. For the comparison with diesel gensets, hybrid systems are all seen as advantageous, because cushioning measures are usually not applied for diesel gensets in developing countries. The comparatively good performance of the extension of the conventional grid on this indicator results from the fact that electricity generation does not take place in the village itself, by this not being disturbing to its inhabitants.

18

Personal Comment given by Georg Kraft, German Bank for Reconstruction (KfW), on July 7th, 2003 in Frankfurt/Main, Germany.

3 Analysis of Impacts

27

3.4.2 Socio-Economic Dimension 3.4.2.1 Overall Socio-Economic Matters The discussion of overall social matters, reflecting overall interests and needs for sustainable social development, is based on a number of different indicators: Cultural Compatibility and Acceptance, Degree of Supply Equity, Degree of Participation and Empowerment, and Potential for Economic Development.

3.4.2.1.1 Cultural Compatibility and Acceptance Cultural Compatibility and Acceptance can be seen as key factors for project developers in developing countries. The history of development aid projects has many examples of projects, which failed due to a lack of cultural compatibility and the corresponding lack of acceptance. This indicator, thus, tries to investigate whether major cultural obstacles exist and whether this or other factors can lead to problems with regard to acceptance. It is obvious that an assessment of cultural compatibility and acceptance in global terms can just be rather vague. Especially cultural compatibility varies strongly not only between countries, but even within different regions. However, it is tried here to assess the cultural compatibility of hybrid systems by extracting experiences obtained within projects and by referring to studies addressing this issue. For this purpose, detailed information only on two projects in Inner Mongolia and Indonesia could be reviewed, because other detailed project reports could not be obtained. Assessment of Hybrid Systems The final reports of projects applying hybrid systems for rural electrification in Inner Mongolia (GTZ, 2003) and Indonesia (Preiser, K. et al., 2000) do not indicate that cultural reservations must be anticipated. Neither is there any evidence that rural electrification through solar or wind energy would reveal any potential cultural obstacles.19 However, although cultural compatibility is likely not to be problematic, problems with the acceptance of the application of hybrid system can always arise from poor system performance.20 Commonly, rural population is familiar with good-quality energy services through information given by relatives or friends who live in grid-electrified urban areas. A system promising electrification on a 24-hours basis, but not working reliably, can soon lead to dissatisfaction. Moreover, it can be expected that in areas where renewable energies have not been applied yet, hybrid systems will be met with scepticism and caution by rural population.

19

Personal Comment given by Jörg Baur, GTZ, in Eschborn/Germany on August 14th, 2003. 20 In Subang/Indonesia, for example, it was observed that consumers were dissatisfied due to technical failures or temporary breakdowns of a PV/Diesel hybrid systems. Thus, a connection to the grid was stated to be preferential by the consumers (Preiser, K., et al., 2000).

Assessment of Hybrid Systems By being a decentralised system. in Eschborn/Germany on August. 2 1 0 -1 -2 Hybrid Systems Diesel Genset SHS Biogas Grid Extension Biogas. Low total costs make electricity affordable to people of almost any income class. based not only on literature. The way of implementation and existing structures of political power in the village itself can be obstacles for supply equity as well. This section is. 3. but also on own estimations by the author as well as on conversations with project co-ordinators of the GTZ. Moreover.22 This restricts the application of hybrid systems for the electrification of rural villages to areas with some economic and financial potential..2 is based on the assumption that all systems are working well. 2003.8 Comparative Assessment of Cultural taboos associated with dealing with Compatibility and Acceptance excrements. The assessment of cultural compatibility shows that conventional technologies as grid extension and diesel gensets are likely to result in less cultural obstacles or problems of acceptance since these technologies are wellknown to rural population. Low total costs are used as an additional criterion for the comparative assessment.21 In the assessment. however.3 Analysis of Impacts 28 Scenario Comparison The comparison as being presented in Annex C. Without taking external costs into account. 2000). However. et al. Surveys and project descriptions dealing with electrification in developing countries have been analysed. 21 22 With Jörg Baur and Roman Ritter.. supply equity is not a matter of course in decentralised systems and should not be overestimated. K. widely independent from national political matters. hybrid systems are relatively expensive regarding both investment and operation costs. and both need to be taken into account here: Access to electricity services can be hampered by existing structures of political power.1. priority is given to the matter of equal access to electricity. but just very limited information could be obtained. . hybrid systems offer the possibility to supply energy equally to everybody within the village. From a financial perspective.2. faces severe cultural obstacles due to religious or social Figure 3.2 Degree of Supply Equity Supply equity basically refers to two different aspects. thus. The Indonesian project proofs that population of a hybrid-powered village does not feel discriminated with energy distribution compared to other customers (Preiser. it is assumed that the use of renewable energy technologies is a rather unknown approach for most people in rural areas.4. 14th.

come to the conclusion that people are willing and able to learn about the system. Not only that the installed capacity is limited and does not allow unlimited consumption of electricity. however. is a good mixture for capacity building and empowerment. Both project reports. which improves understanding and empowerment. Both projects did apply certain consumption restrictions to the consumers.3 Potential for Participation and Empowerment This section aims to discuss whether hybrid systems are likely to contribute to capacity building on matters of energy. as do decentralised electricity generation in general.2. The provision of fossil resources as well as the conventional grid are often subject to political changes and interference. and therefore by their nature less able to guarantee longterm equal access to electricity.1. For a future sustainable energy system it is essential not only to provide energy in a clean and inexpensive way.3 Analysis of Impacts 29 Scenario Comparison The analysis of supply equity shows a preference to decentralised systems in general and especially to those applying renewable energies. but provide electricity the whole day. and by which people can learn about issues of electricity production. . However. and that people were also willing to adapt to the restrictions that were set. SHS come off better concerning supply equity. Another aspect to be considered is empowerment: increased understanding and participation of the interested public in a development context provides the opportunity of increasing empowerment. Since hybrid systems are discussed here for the application on community level. since especially in Indonesia the capacity installed was too low to meet the demand.9 Comparative Assessment of Supply Equity 3. 2 1 0 -1 -2 Hybrid Systems Diesel Genset SHS Biogas Grid Extension Among the renewable energies. preference is given to household units. Biogas plants come off better than hybrid systems due to the lower total costs associated with their application. but also to make customers aware of the fact that energy is limited and saving of energy therefore important. Assessment of Hybrid Systems The experiences made in the projects in Indonesia and in Inner Mongolia do not create a consistent picture of the ability of hybrid systems to improve knowledge on energy saving measures.4. which is not very surprising since the decentralised nature and the avoiding of fossil resources are major advantages of renewable energies. hybrid systems are likely to improve people’s understanding in matters of energy provision. Electricity is also produced within the village itself. Scenario Comparison The comparison shows a great potential for hybrid systems on capacity building for energy issues. Figure 3. The fact that hybrid systems are applied at a certain limited capacity.

2. because they require a high degree of user involve. Assessment of Hybrid Systems As already mentioned in section 3. the assessment would be different. et al.. the conclusion can be drawn that they offer a good potential for economic development. electrification should be seen as essential for economic development. 2000). the demand is likely to increase..4 Potential for Economic Development The indicator “Potential for Economic Development” certainly is of major importance for the assessment of the sustainability of energy technologies. A. which was not expected especially in Indonesia. 2002).1. For hybrid systems applying tion and Empowerment biogas plants as backup. have greater -2 potential compared to the hybrid systems investigated here.10 Comparative Assessment of Participament. for example. A. the stability and flexibility of the system.5. moreover.4.. the good quality of the produced electricity as well as the possibility to install high capacities make hybrid systems very favourable. et al.Figure 3. 2 1 0 -1 Hybrid Systems Diesel Genset SHS Biogas Grid Extension Biogas plants. These examples.. For hybrid systems. proof the necessity of careful demand forecasts as will be discussed in chapter 5. for example. Both projects experienced that the installed capacity of the systems soon was unable to meet the demand since people employed more and more electric appliances. If an adequate capacity is installed.. Complementary measures need to be taken in order to ensure economic development. However. . and experiences made particularly in connection with SHS. Under quality aspects of electricity provision. but are matter of the implementation process and cannot be considered for a comparative assessment. K. but not as only necessary measure. a significant share of annual income could be attributed to electricity in Bangladesh (Barkat. Experiences made in Bangladesh. 2002).4. however.. 3. they can supply electricity on a 24 hours basis. even among household without access to electricity (Barkat. et al. they are normally meeting the needs. As a result. show that electrification results in a higher number of people being employed. and people in general have more time for enhanced commercial activities during the day if they have lighting for doing their household chores in the evenings. because once electricity is available.3.3 Analysis of Impacts 30 People need to understand the limited nature of energy in order to properly exploit the installed capacity of hybrid systems and in order to give every user in the community the same possibility to use electricity. which can be installed at and technically easily extended to comparatively high capacities. in Indonesia some customers even evaluated the quality higher than that of the conventional public grid (Preiser.1. the projects in Indonesia and Inner Mongolia did apply certain restrictions on the use of electricity. This is due to the fact that energy services are commonly seen as essential for economic development: lighting. electrification allows handicraft enterprises to apply more power tools and to increase their productivity. allows shop owners or handicraft enterprises to extend their commercial activities to the evenings.2.

2000). A. but are also likely to occur due to manufacturing and maintenance processes related to the application of the energy technology in the village.4. F. 2002) reveals that access to electricity results in a higher number of people employed even among non-electrified households in the village. 2 1 0 -1 -2 Hybrid Systems Diesel Genset SHS Biogas Grid Extension Just the conventional grid by offering Figure 3. 1999).. Assessment of Hybrid Systems Compared to conventional power plant technologies. because these other systems are problematic with regard to issues as reliability. Only fragmentary information could be obtained on employment effects attributable to the application of different energy technologies in developing countries in general. sales.11 Comparative Assessment of Potential practically no limitations to commer.for Economic Development cial activities on rural village level has higher potential for economic development. Case studies in Africa expect that the decentralised nature of manufacturing of technologies as solar energy is likely to result in wide-spread employment opportunities (Painuly. no studies at all were found investigating employment effects of hybrid systems explicitly. Socio-economic surveys on rural electrification in general reveal that employment effects are likely to occur and can directly be attributed to electrification. and Impacts on Health. Demand-side-management to optimise appliances and con- 23 (Barkat. J. renewable energy technologies as wind energy are relatively more labour intensive (Scheelhasse. Haker. et al. Fenhann. 3. 2002).4. K.23 Employment effects can result from enhanced economic activities as a result of lighting on the one hand.1 Employment Effects In order to create a sustainable energy system in developing countries. J.. The expansion of renewable energy technologies in Germany has shown that the provision of energy services gains importance. the effects of different technology options on employment are important.. 3.... continuity of electricity supply or commonly installed capacities.2. .D.2 Individual Social Interests The criterion individual social interests will be discussed with the two indicators Employment Effects.2. It can generally be expected that employment opportunities in production..3 Analysis of Impacts 31 Scenario Comparison Hybrid systems show a good advantage on economic development in comparison to other decentralised rural electrification options.2. J.J. et al. For this issue it was therefore tried to draw conclusions from surveys investigating the effects on employment of renewable energies in Germany. service and maintenance of renewable energy systems will occur as was already experienced with SHS (Nieuwenhout.

. too. 1999). Assessment of Hybrid Systems Hybrid systems emit corrosive gases during operation of the diesel genset. by this creating more employment opportunities than in the case of hybrid systems. Scenario Comparison The comparison of hybrid systems 2 with other electrification scenarios shows a good potential for hybrid sys1 tems.Figure 3. Other sources of soot and fumes are candles and kerosene lamps.4. J. are seen as preferential compared to hybrid systems with regard to the fact that many system components of biogas plants can be produced inside the respective countries. Due to this usually incomplete combustion process. On the other hand they have good potential for economic develop. The electrification of rural health clinics is a main application for hybrid systems of smaller capacities. which makes them favourable compared to options as SHS. by this creating employment ment Effects opportunities. Haker. corrosive gases are generated with negative impacts on human health.. Critical corrosive gases emitted by diesel gensets are NOx. X-ray and sonography equipment can be used for better diagnosis of illnesses. Systems Genset Extension which makes them favourable com-2 pared to conventional options as diesel gensets. Moreover.3 Analysis of Impacts 32 sumption is likely to have significant employment effects (Scheelhasse. 3. There are no emissions during operation resulting from the use of the renewable energy technologies.12 Comparative Assessment of Employment.2 Impacts on Health The relevance of this indicator derives from the experience that people in areas. cannot be quantified here. however. which are not electrified. burn biomass for cooking. This is mainly due to the fact 0 that renewable energies are relatively Hybrid Diesel SHS Biogas Grid -1 labour intensive on the one hand.2. Another aspect concerning human health refers to experiences with rural electrification. The example of Inner Mongolia shows that hybrid systems indeed provide the possibility to improve the situation for rural health clinics reliably on a 24 hours basis. which reveal that rural health clinics could improve their medical services due to electrification. This. refrigerators can be used to store vaccines. fume and particles. their higher potential on economic development and therefore employment opportunities than for hybrid systems is attenuated by lower potential for employment attributable to production or maintenance of the energy system. Biogas systems. 2003).. is taken into consideration here. To which extent this observation might apply to developing countries as well. K. For the extension of the conventional grid.2. thus directly affecting human health (GTZ.

hardly result in 1 exhaust fumes. but also for commercial activities.3 Economic Dimension 3. Electricity generating costs per kWh. but also affordability of electricity services on the other hand are essential matters of investigation in the planning process of these projects. Figure 3. Low costs and tariffs in general are key factors for the successful realisation and sustainable operation of electrification projects. If first investment is too high and requires substantial financial expenditure.3.13 Comparative Assessment of Impacts on Health 3. not accounting for the fact that electricity generating costs in the end might be lower. they are seen as advan0 tageous compared to diesel gensets Hybrid Diesel SHS Biogas Grid and SHS. Low electricity generating costs per kWh allow customers to apply more technical devices.3 Analysis of Impacts 33 Scenario Comparison Due to the fact that hybrid systems can 2 well provide electricity to rural health clinics. Investment costs must be seen as a major hurdle for the implementation of electrification projects. Willingness-to-pay on the one hand.1 Low Costs and Tariffs The question of low costs and tariffs mainly depends on three different aspects: Investment costs per W. The following basic assumptions were made: .4. a cost analysis for hybrid systems was performed based on cost data obtained by project developers and system providers and for the location of Trapani/Italy. and. moreover. While biogas is seen as -1 Systems Genset Extension preferable due to further effects on -2 overall cleanliness. For the assessment of costs and tariffs. not only for lighting purposes. the extension of the conventional grid brings out similar health effects as do hybrid systems.4. potential customers are likely to decide for a cheaper option.

during a telephone interview on August.. Maintenance and Repair: Annually 4% of total investment Interest Rate: 6% Miscellaneous Lifetime system components: PV modules 20 years. Puls.4 Main Assumptions for the Cost Analysis Type of Costs Costs/Details Specific Investment PV Modules: 400 €/kWp Specific Investment Wind Power Plants (incl. the batteries are designed for a storage capacity of 2 days Inverter and Charge Controller “Sunny Island”. D.007 × Diesel Genset: Costs = 345. Annex D.1068 × Source Schueco24   P  25  [€/kW] kW  P   [€/kW] kW  For Plants ≥ 10 kW: Costs = 2016. 18th. Support: 2000 € Operating Costs Manpower. . Bopp. 4. 2003. 28 Personal Comment Mr. The electricity generating costs were calculated with the annuity method for diesel fuel prices of 0. 18th.63 × exp − 0. Internal Wiring: 6000 € Cabinets.. others: own estimation The cost analysis was performed for different village sizes of 30 to 300 households and. different system capacities. G. 2003.5kW: 5000 € Planning. 27 Personal Recommendation Mr.0394 ×   Own calculation based on available cost data (see Annex D) Investment   P   [€/kW] kW  Schueco 26 Battery bank: 333 €/kWh for a 12V.3 additionally gives an overview on cost estimations made by other organisations in order to make the picture as comprehensive as possible. Koerner during a telephone interview on August. The details of the calculation can be found in Annex D.. 25 P = Installed capacity. 2003). 2003. 18th. Cables. 500Ah battery. Koerner during a telephone interview on August. Battery 5 years. 2003. Tower): For Plants ≤ 10kW: Costs = 4309 × exp − 0. accordingly. Assembly and Commissioning: 15% of total investment Transport: 1000 € Local grid.1 to 1 € per litre. Diesel genset 10 years.7 × exp − 0. Koerner during a telephone interview on August. in Eschborn/Germany on August 14th. former KfW staff member. GTZ.3 Analysis of Impacts 34 Table 3. 26 Personal Comment Mr. 29 Personal Recommendation Jörg Baur. 22nd. 24 Personal Comment Mr. Geis. Wind generator 12 years. Inverter and Charge Controller 10 years Cost data SMA KfW27 Schueco28 Own estimations GTZ 29 Own assumption For PV and Wind: (Sauer. 2003. H.

By this it is tried to find out at which level of the different cost ranges hybrid systems are positioned. they need to be taken with caution.00 6.20 8.05 – 10. cost data was collected from various other institutions. This is proven by a number of examples collected from other organisations. In the investment costs analysis.5 Specific Investment Costs of Hybrid Systems System PV/Diesel Systems Wind/Diesel Systems PV/Wind Systems at 2 days battery capacity PV/Wind Systems at 1 day battery capacity Share in Electricity Generation 4:1 4:1 1:2 1:2 Range of Investment Costs [€/W] 8. These investment costs vary between 3. Therefore. The results in Table 3. .03 to 3.3.5 €/W for Wind/Diesel village systems and 2. more suitable locations with regard to weather conditions strongly influence the system design and can therefore decrease investment costs. Locally produced batteries.3 Analysis of Impacts 35 For the comparison with the other electrification scenarios. the here obtained investment costs for hybrid systems cannot be generalised for all cases.6 gives an overview on typical investment costs for the other scenarios of rural electrification. the influence of the battery capacity on investment costs was investigated by varying the storage capacity.23 – 9. 3. 3. Scenario Comparison Table 3.86 – 9. Since these costs are based on data from German manufacturers. the following results were obtained for the specific investment costs per W for villages with 30 to 300 households.44 9.18 For PV/Wind systems. moreover. This implies that PV/Wind systems are likely to be cost-competitive with the other hybrid systems only where weather conditions are favourable enough to guarantee electricity supply with smaller battery banks.3.4.1 Investment Costs per W Assessment of Hybrid Systems Assessing the initial investment necessary for hybrid systems is a difficult task since it depends strongly on the chosen system configuration.5 indicate that the size of the battery highly influences the specific investment costs. inverters or other devices may significantly reduce investment costs.30 to 4.21 €/W for PV/Wind household systems. Table 3.03 to 4.67 – 12.1. the quality of the components and the specific characteristics of the location. charge controllers.8 €/W for PV/Diesel village systems. which are presented in more detail in Annex D. but should rather be seen as indicative.

2003) The comparison of this data with those for hybrid systems calculated here reveals the following aspects: Diesel gensets are likely to be least costly among the decentralised solutions. meanwhile. M. According to the World Bank. L. Source (Kininger. and: Baur. The comparison shows that among the decentralised solutions for rural village supply – hybrid systems. 1996. F. the number of households to be connected. 2002) (Cabraal. CosgroveDavies.. and are therefore evaluated as comparatively very good here. J.14.000 US$ per kilometre (ESMAP. Schaeffer... 2 1 0 -1 -2 Hybrid Systems Diesel Genset SHS Biogas Grid Extension - - This leads to a comparative assessment as shown in Figure 3. investment costs for grid extension can therefore be evaluated as higher than for hybrid systems.6 Investment Costs of Different Scenarios for Rural Electrification System Diesel Genset SHS Biogas Grid Extension Range of Investment Costs 0. the investment for hybrid systems might become similar.hybrid power plants require the highest specific investment and are therefore disadvantageous. L.14 Comparative Assessment of Investment Costs .... Grid extension. A.. Figure 3. the construction of power distribution lines account for 80 to 90% of the overall investment. The quantity depends on the distance of the village to the grid. Schaeffer. requires high financial input for remote rural areas..3 – 2. Compared to the use of PV alone as SHS. The comparison of hybrid systems with biogas systems shows that biogas is likely to be less costly as well. 1996) (ATB. 2000). For the case of a remote village. show that for other locations and circumstances.5 €/W 7 – 26 US$/Wp 2. diesel gensets and biogas systems .5 – 4 €/W Depending on the location. The investment cost calculations for hybrid systems from other sources. hybrid systems require less specific investment due to the fact that the renewable part of the systems is not designed to meet the full electricity demand. Cosgrove-Davies. M. and the density of households in the village (Cabraal. however. A. by this reducing investment costs strongly since specific investment for PV modules does not decrease with higher installed capacities.3 Analysis of Impacts 36 Table 3. and can be up to 20. 2000b).

This is proven by comparing the data calculated here with those of other institutions.80 PV/Wind. In fact.1 €/l Diesel Wind/Diesel: 1 €/l Diesel PV/Diesel: 0. 1.00 0. The electricity generating costs of PV/Wind systems as well strongly depend on the battery size and the weather conditions.90 Number of Households Figure 3. which is mainly due to the decline in investment costs for wind and diesel generators.70 1. Especially in the case of household systems. both for PV/Diesel and Wind/Diesel systems. Battery 1 Day Wind/Diesel: 0.30 1.15.2 Electricity Generating Costs per kWh Assessment of Hybrid Systems The cost analysis of hybrid systems was performed for different village sizes as well as different fuel prices in order to determine their influence on electricity generating costs.20 1. so that the data here shall just be seen as indicative. The results can be found in Figure 3. Battery 2 Days PV/Wind.3. does not only result in higher electricity output of the PV modules. Higher annual global radiation..60 1.06 €/kWh lower for all village sizes at a fuel price of 0.1.10 1. i.3 Analysis of Impacts 37 3. higher loads/larger villages give preference to Wind/Diesel systems if wind potential is sufficient. - - Again.40 1.e. They might vary strongly according to actual site conditions. the costs can be significantly lower. and the chosen system configuration strongly influences the electricity generating costs. the electricity generating costs are only 0.50 1. The decrease in electricity generating costs for PV/Diesel systems is lower than for the other systems due to the fact that investment for PV modules does not decrease with higher capacities.4.1 €/l compared to 1 €/l. but also in the possibility to design the battery bank smaller. which can be found in Annex D.3. Therefore. which is mainly due to the fact that factors as the construc- . the absolute numbers for electricity generating costs must be taken with caution. The effect of decreasing diesel fuel prices is only moderate.1 €/l Diesel PV/Diesel: 1 €/l Diesel 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 120 140 160 175 225 275 Electricity Generating Costs [€/kWh] 1.15 Electricity Generating Costs in Comparison The analysis of electricity generating costs lead to the following main observations: The electricity generating costs of all systems decrease with higher capacities.

the comparison with hybrid village systems Figure 3. 1999).4.3. shows a clear disadvantage of hybrid village systems among the decentralised solutions.7 Electricity Generating Costs for Different Scenarios System Diesel Genset SHS Biogas Systems Grid Extension Specific Electricity Generating Costs 0. the situation can be completely different. they are evaluated as 0 comparatively good here.15 – 0. because grid extension offers the least costly option for electricity generation if a medium voltage line passes the respective village nearby. et al. Scenario Comparison The comparison with other potential systems for rural electrification. However. If compared to Generating Costs hybrid household system. 2000a) (BMZ. Once the conventional grid is extended to a rural village.000 kWh at an interest rate of 6% (Sauer. the scattered nature of these systems is generally problematic with regard to maintenance. For decentralised electrification.16 Comparative Assessment of Electricity here is anyway critical. Diesel gensets strongly depend on the diesel fuel price. Table 3.3 Analysis of Impacts 38 tion of a local mini-grid or maintenance and repair must not be accounted. this observation must not be taken for granted and can differ strongly from case to case. SHS proHybrid Diesel SHS Biogas Grid duce electricity at lower costs than -1 Systems Genset Extension hybrid village systems due to lower -2 operational costs. The main results are presented in Table 3.60 US$/kWh 1 US$/kWh 0. which can be found in Annex C.03 Euro/kWh for village systems with annual consumption of less than 15.. and since diesel fuel is often heavily subsidised in develop1 ing countries. since this is left to the buyer of the systems.20 €/kWh Country dependent Source (ESMAP. 3. For PV/Diesel hybrid systems.2 Maintenance Requirements The indicator “Maintenance Requirements” discusses requirements on maintenance structures. the Fraunhofer-Institute states that electricity generating costs are likely not to become lower than 1.3. the resulting electricity generating costs are likely to be lower. .20 – 0. 2002) The comparison shows that biogas systems are the least costly option among the decentralised systems from a point of view of electricity generating costs. 2 The comparison with the conventional grid shows a disadvantage of hybrid systems as well.7. 1999) (Wuppertal Institute. D.. Still.

.1. This shows that maintenance structures are very complex in the case of hybrid systems.17 Comparative Assessment of Maintenance Requirements The criterion of economic independence is measured with the two indicators Degree of Import Dependence and Regional Self-Supply. 2001). maintenance centres need to be erected. Special attention needs to be paid to the maintenance of the key components. S. Experiences show that regular annual inspection and maintenance can reduce average fault rates of three failures per year to one failure every two years (Turcotte. F.3. two important aspects of electrification are investigated in detail: on the one hand supply security refers to likeliness of system breakdowns. More details can be found in section 5. and Supply Security. the question to be discussed here is whether a technology is able to decrease dependency of developing countries on the one hand.. the assessment as presented in Figure 3. D. Scenario Comparison The comparison of maintenance requirements with other scenarios shows that hybrid systems due to their complexity require higher attention on maintenance issues than do other systems for rural electrification. GTZ. than system breakdowns of several days can be the result. None of the systems is therefore assessed as comparatively very good with regard to maintenance here. . because biogas systems require regular attendance and maintenance. 3. and whether the creation of economic surplus remains within the country on the other hand. Just biogas systems are here seen to be even more problematic. and problems with charge controller and batteries make these systems comparatively problematic with regard to maintenance. adequate supply of spare parts is essential.. 2003. etc.3 Analysis of Impacts 39 Assessment of Hybrid Systems Maintenance requirements for hybrid systems must be evaluated as being comparatively high. Economic dependence on industrialised countries is one of the major problems of developing countries. 14th. in hybrid systems.17 reflects that maintenance is problematic for rural electrification in general. If this is not ensured. Pneumaticos. With focus on matters of energy.4. To make customers aware of the need for maintenance of these small components is one of the key issues to be addressed in the implementation process of hybrid electrification projects. Generally. Sheriff. on August. in Eschborn/Germany. Project developers state this issue to be of major importance and very crucial from a technical point of view30: whole maintenance centres need to be erected close to the villages. By investigating the degree of supply security.3 Economic Independence 2 1 0 -1 -2 Hybrid Systems Diesel Genset SHS Biogas Grid Extension Figure 3. Technicians need to be educated. batteries and charge controllers. which is an important economic factor since commercial activities require reliable 30 Personal Comment given by Jörg Baur.

Improvements in this respect and the development of markets for renewable technologies can be expected only over longer periods of time and often need external support. charge controllers. 31 Experiences lately. show that developing countries very well had the ability to produce at least parts of hybrid systems. Pure renewable energies. shows that a market for renewable energies can emerge as well (GTZ. where renewable energies have been strongly promoted.Supply and Import Independence sources.e. 1990). 1999b). et al. The latter question has been discussed for many years already. K. On the other hand the importance of supply security refers to the question whether a technology has the ability to supply electricity the whole day. The fear is that dependency on oil imports from industrialised countries might be replaced by a dependency on imports of modern technologies for the use of non-depleting resources as solar energy. two different aspects need to be discussed. On the other hand experiences also show that quality of important system parts as batteries is likely to be low (Preiser.3 Analysis of Impacts 40 electricity output. etc. On the one hand. The example of Inner Mongolia. however.3.. i.4.3. 3. . can be preferred to hybrid systems. 2 two major groups can be distinguished: electrification scenarios de1 pendent on fossil resources are less 0 preferential from the point of view of Hybrid Diesel SHS Biogas Grid -1 Systems regional self-supply and import indeGenset Extension pendence.. except diesel is produced in the country itself. the question whether the other components of a hybrid system can be produced in the respective countries is of major importance for sustainability in terms of maintenance as well as further dissemination of this technology.18 Comparative Assessment Regional Selfnologies nor reliant on fossil re. 31 See for example: (Hemmers.. 2000).1 Degree of Import Dependence and Regional Self-Supply Assessment of Hybrid Systems With regard to import dependence and regional self-supply.Figure 3. On the other hand. Systems like biogas plants are neither dependent on new tech. wiring. -2 however. Scenario Comparison In comparison to the other scenarios. (IEA. batteries. and therefore are significantly preferential to hybrid systems. It was argued that necessary production facilities and experts are likely not to be available in developing countries for many years. the need for diesel fuel makes regions applying this technology dependent on fuel imports. R. 2003).

For this reason. if systems breakdowns due to failures of one of the electricity generation components occur. system breakdowns can occur by incidents. The assessment here therefore reflects supply security as a main strength of hybrid systems. The relevance of future potential and know-how improvement is to be seen within the context of technology transfer. The experiences with hybrid systems in Inner Mongolia and Indonesia therefore did not show major breakdowns due to system component failures. Firstly. hybrid systems offer a high degree of supply security. Moreover.. the likelicurity hood of complete system breakdowns is comparatively low.ture technologies. K.3. a PV/Diesel hybrid system in Indonesia was not working due to lightning strike (Preiser.3 Analysis of Impacts 41 3. leading to breakdowns and therefore decreasing supply security severely (Preiser. As an example.2 Supply Security Assessment of Hybrid Systems Renewable energy generators as PV arrays and wind generators have a lifetime of up to 20 years and are nowadays very reliable. both nowadays being maFigure 3.4. This observation is mainly 1 due to the fact that hybrid systems do 0 not rely on one generator alone. 2000). a hybrid system is still able to supply a limited amount of energy with the other components. modern and sustainable approaches for rural electrification can be promoted. K. The experience of Indonesia shows as well that if projections are not carried out closely.4. the system is likely not to cover demand increase at a certain stage anymore.4 Future Potential The criterion of future potential is discussed with the indicator “Degree of know-how Improvement”. This and the fact that hybrid systems can be applied for 24-hours electrification shows that hybrid systems generally have a relatively high degree of supply security. tribute is given to the fact that fossil resources are limited and that for future development a decrease of dependence on such resources is desirable.3. By this.3. but Hybrid Diesel SHS Biogas Grid are backed up by another one.. hybrid systems apply renewable -2 energy technologies as photovoltaic and wind. Assessment of Hybrid Systems .. 2000). Anyhow. careful projection of demand development is essential in order to enable supply security.. capacity building and sustainable energy development. With the help of demonstration projects and well-functioning rural electrification projects. More-1 Systems Genset Extension over.19 Comparative Assessment of Supply Se. 2 3. Naturally. et al. which cannot be influenced by project developers. Scenario Comparison Compared with other methods. et al. this section tries to identify the potential of the respective technologies by evaluating their degree of modernity and their ability to improve the people’s knowledge on energy issues.

A high degree of potential for know-how improvement and capacity building can therefore be attributed to such technologies. it is tried to come to a conclusion on the degree. the comparison of the future potential clearly results in a preference for the solutions based on renewable energy resources.1 Ecological Dimension The analysis of the ecological dimension shows good potential for hybrid systems.5.2 on page 19. tential Thus. 3.3 Analysis of Impacts 42 Hybrid systems apply modern and new technologies for rural electrification. as was the objective in the beginning.Figure 3. since these are modern and new technologies not demanding fossil resources either. The three dimensions ecological. hybrid systems indeed have the potential to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. the relatively low energy consumption for the production of hybrid systems as well contributes to a good overall result on environmental sustainability compared to diesel gensets and grid extension. to which hybrid systems are likely to be a sustainable option for rural electrification. which certainly offer less potential for know-how improve. Especially compared to conventional electrification solutions. socio-economic and economic sustainability are still discussed individually. Moreover. 2 1 0 Hybrid Diesel SHS Biogas Grid -1 Systems Genset Extension Diesel gensets and extension of the -2 conventional grids on the other hand are options. With this.5. 3. which was attributed to the individual indicators in Table 3. the future potential can be seen as equally high.5 Results and Discussion The result of the assessment of the indicators is now aggregated according to the weight. .1 Results 3.1.20 Comparative Assessment of Future Poments. Scenario Comparison For SHS and Biogas. which are based on approaches being followed in the industrialised countries as well and involve lower dependence on fossil resources.

3 Analysis of Impacts 43 2 1 0 This observation is not very surprising with regard to diesel gensets. the aggregated impacts on environment investigated here are worse for diesel-based hybrid systems. aspects of diesel storage need to be taken into account. Due to the fact that purely renewable systems do not consume fossil resources during operation. however. . because they serve different purposes (basic household electrification in the case of SHS. other environmentally important aspects would be of importance as well and would need to be examined as well. The question whether hybrid systems are more environmentally Figure 3. which needs to be assured in order to make the systems environmentally benign. These aspects include mainly battery recycling. village electrification also for productive purposes in the case of hybrid systems). Moreover. For the real application of hybrid systems. the choice between SHS and hybrid systems will not need to be made.21 Results Ecology Assessment benign than the conventional grid strongly depends on the energy mix of the respective countries. and can become problematic for diesel-based hybrid systems as well. reveals a worse performance of hybrid systems. the commonly high dependence of developing countries on fossil fuels allows assessing the environmental performance of hybrid systems as better. 32 Note: In practical terms. -1 The comparison of hybrid systems with purely renewable energy technologies as SHS and biogas. The comparison here is therefore fictitious. since leakages in diesel tanks and the associated ground pollution are a major problem especially in dieselbased mini-grids. especially of those applying diesel gensets for backup. since hybrid systems are especially meant to replace them in rural electrification.32 The assessment of environmental sustainability was here restricted to matters of air and noise pollution. if the choice is to be made between hybrid systems and other renewable energies as SHS and biogas. PV/Wind systems are the only systems being able to compete under ecological aspects and to provide an equal environmentally sound solution. The comparison of hybrid systems with the extension of the conventional grid does not provide a -2 PV/ Diesel Wind/ PV/ Wind Diesel SHS Biogas Grid consistent picture at first Diesel Extension glance. Nevertheless. Therefore.

The slight comparative disadvantage of hybrid systems to grid-based electrification mainly results from the high preference rural population is likely to give to grid extension and from the high potential for economic development attributed to grid-based electrification here. they do. which have been facing many problems with regard to financial issues as investment and maintenance. indeed. -1 high electricity generating costs and the problem of high require-2 ments on maintenance are main Hybrid Diesel SHS Biogas Grid problems associated with the apSystems Genset Extension plication of hybrid systems.5. severe and Figure 3. 0 which is mainly due to the high potential of hybrid systems for -1 economic development and for the creation of employment op-2 portunities. .1.1. If one. These indicators have Hybrid Diesel SHS Biogas Grid Systems Gensets Extension been weighted comparatively high in the assessment scheme since the furtherance of economic development is one of the main Figure 3. hybrid systems have problems in 2 competing with other decentralised systems for rural electrification. Hybrid systems by providing high quality and reliable electrification and with the quality of electric current being comparable to the conventional grid are likely to be the best among the here investigated methods for decentralised electrification. then this applies to hybrid systems as well. 3.22 Results Socio-Economic Assessment hopes connected to rural electrification. assesses SHS as problematic from this point of view. therefore.2 Socio-Economic Dimension The assessment of the socio2 economic effects of hybrid systems reveals a good preference 1 for hybrid systems compared to other decentralised solutions. however. But high investment costs.3 Economic Dimension From an economic perspective. however. result in the demand for high involvement of donor organisations. the decentralised option hybrid system is certainly favourable. Regarding other matters of social sustainability as supply equity and capacity building/empowerment.23 Results Economic Assessment are in the relative assessment here not reflected accurately in absolute terms. The analysis here reveals that hybrid systems can be ranked similarly to SHS. These problems are.5. 1 Hybrid systems have advantages with regard to supply security 0 compared to other decentralised options.3 Analysis of Impacts 44 3.

then. and the question whether positive impacts of hybrid systems on ecological and socio-economic issues trade-off this problem. but at least a basis of economic de- . Firstly. 1. The discussion of advantages and disadvantages here has revealed that probably the most important advantage compared to other systems is that hybrid systems offer a good potential for economic development. This. However. For the real application of hybrid systems. It is rather inappropriate to apply hybrid systems in rural areas. Hybrid systems certainly have the potential of furtherance of economic development. is the answer on the initially raised question whether hybrid systems are a sustainable solution for rural electrification? What. cannot simply be answered with yes or no. the analysis shows that especially the question of financial competitiveness with other decentralised options for rural electrification is a major problem. the question of ecological and socio-economic impacts will always need to be investigated individually. What. the question is whether the application of hybrid systems. and under which circumstances should they be implemented? For the answer to these questions. 3. does make sense at all. the assessment of these impacts was done in relatively general terms and is therefore strongly related to the underlying assumptions and their subjective evaluation. Nevertheless. however. Hybrid systems are applicable for remote rural areas. this main advantage also provides the ground on which to decide whether or not to apply hybrid systems. is the niche for hybrid systems. and the extension of the conventional grid to these areas will in practical cases not be an option for their electrification due to the high investment involved. It was shown that hybrid systems indeed can be a method for sustainable rural electrification with regard to ecological and socio-economic issues. cannot fully exploit the system. for the electrification of individuals. in other terms.3 Analysis of Impacts 45 The comparison also revealed that hybrid systems are disadvantageous from an economic perspective to grid extension.5. is crucial. and the resulting intermittent supply of energy was accepted (GTZ. is at all given.2 Discussion The analysis of impacts of hybrid systems reveals that the initially raised question. From an economic perspective. applies to hybrid systems. In a way. In Inner Mongolia it was experienced that the diesel genset was in some cases not operated in order to decrease expenditure on diesel fuel. to which degree hybrid systems are likely to provide a sustainable option for rural electrification. the question whether or not to apply hybrid systems depends on the respective local circumstances. two different possibilities are distinguished. to be taken with caution. meaning the demand for electrification for productive purposes. This assessment is. as well. thus. it is thought here that hybrid systems on village level should just be applied in areas where this potential. But if this is the case. which do not have the demand for reliable and continuous electricity supply and. From a personal point of view. both on a household scale as well as in the here investigated village mini-grids. decentralised systems for electrification are advantageous compared to grid extension with regard to the regional creation of value and to independence and supply security. 2003). being relatively expensive and sophisticated at the same time.

2. then the application of hybrid systems might be ideally seen as the second step of development. However. the sustainability of hybrid systems and other options will need to be investigated prior to the implementation process every time again individually. small-scale hybrid systems are well applicable to the electrification of single consumers as rural health clinics. therefore.3 Analysis of Impacts 46 velopment already taking place should be given in order to apply and fully exploit hybrid systems. Secondly. which are already developing by other means and where other conditions are favourable to allow a positive prognosis of further development. Hybrid systems.3 might provide a framework for such an assessment. smaller and less sophisticated solutions as biogas. are seen as less suitable for poverty alleviation for the poorest as are other systems. For supporting the first step. desalination systems. . For this purpose. telecommunication devices. For a respective project with the objective of sustainable rural electrification. etc. Hybrid systems are here assessed to be more suitable for supporting development of areas. SHS or stand-alone wind turbines seem to offer a better suited method. If one considers economic development as a stepwise process. The indicator set developed here and presented in section 3. taking account of the specific conditions and circumstances. this assessment is not to be taken for granted for any situation. the advantage of high quality electrification exactly adapted to the consumer demand applies and makes hybrid systems very favourable and certainly trades off the relatively high investment costs. hotels. It is based on a subjective and generalised assessment of the impacts of hybrid systems and therefore not universally applicable. The extension of such small-scale renewable solutions to hybrid systems by applying additional diesel or other generators might then be a possibility to support the next step of development by providing 24-hours electrification.

1 Baseline Indonesia consists of around 17.500 islands with approximately 23 million households not being connected to the conventional grid. Despite the problems. Inhabitants are usually farmers.2 Project Description Within the project described in (Preiser.2. By this. people were satisfied with the hybrid systems. a wind power plant and a diesel genset.4 Project Examples 47 4 Project Examples This section presents the experiences made in two projects on rural electrification with hybrid systems in Indonesia and Inner Mongolia. the Indonesian government has created the so-called 50 MW PV-programme in 1997. are connected in parallel to supply electricity to a village of approximately 50 inhabitants. which is switched on during evening hours and works smoothly.1. 4. but also a number of PV-based hybrid systems. The village has an elementary school and some shopping facilities for food. first pilot projects installed 85 SHS and 15 PV street lighting already in 1989 in Sukatani. et al. hygiene and fuel.1 PV/Wind/Diesel Hybrid System at Nusa Penida Island Two plants. or work in nearby urban areas. The following information were obtained at the on-site visit: Lightning stroke has damaged the plant. drivers. They are based on literature review. but no reaction resulted from that. the operational experiences with PV systems were reviewed.. which aims to electrify one million households with PV within 10 years. two existing plants were visited by the project planners. a market for SHS has developed over recent years. For this purpose. a test and certification laboratory for PV is to be erected in Jakarta. Systems of choice are not only SHS. Indonesia has long standing experiences with PV. the village used just the diesel genset for electrification. . the results on hybrid systems are summarised here. 4. but also with regard to PV hybrid systems. which according to their opinion provided ideal electricity supply for their remote village. so that this could easily be repaired by a technician.1.. with special focus on SHS. K. The inhabitants of the village reported the breakdown of the system two months before the on-site visit. 2000). The project team felt that just protection elements were damaged.1.2. Therefore. Since breakdown of the system. In order to overcome this situation. 4. PV/Diesel Hybrid System close to Subang - 4.2 This system was erected in 1997 and is designed to provide electricity to three settlements with altogether 350 families.1.1 Hybrid Systems in Indonesia 4. and since then there is no 24-hours electricity supply. both consisting of a PV generator.

Consumers could be connected to either 100W or 200W. However. and only the local technician remained in position. project organisation was felt to be not transparent and people would have wished to be more involved in the project during implementation. shows that maybe not all characteristics of electricity supply and energy saving had been understood. only one of the three settlements can use electricity. where light is simply not switched off. exceeding the assumed level by 88 kWh/d. the behaviour in using lights was similar to that in urban areas. ironing during daytime.e. because the provided amount of energy was not sufficient and the temporary disconnection was not acceptable. During night-time. Test of system components proved that the system was still in good shape. respectively. This. the system could soon not meet the demand anymore.000 or 30. 33 It was assumed that due to the low income of inhabitants. they proved good understanding about the characteristics of the system and felt that the allocation of electricity was fair. When asked. People were obviously dissatisfied with the system’s performance.200 Ah and a 20 kW bi-directional Inverter. which need to be connected to the grid permanently. all system components except the battery bank were showing good overall test result. just those. The system was designed for a electricity consumption of 150 kWh/d.4 Project Examples 48 The hybrid system consists of a 7 kWp PV Generator. The battery bank was after the three years of operation down to a capacity of 60% and therefore close to replacement. a Battery Bank of 1. tried to cope with increased level of demand by extending the operational hours of the diesel genset and by temporarily disconnecting parts of the village from the system. The saved money of six million Rupees disappeared during these changes. The organisation committee changed several times. People had experienced the limitations of the system and did adapt to the system’s needs by i. The operation of the system. village inhabitants are not supplied with electricity for 24 hours anymore. people began to apply more electrical devices than they were supposed to. In a new arrangement. being secured by fuses. Already in the year 2000. Since the fuses did not function. which is due to the system’s constant operation with high loads. for which they had to pay a connection fee of 20. the installed capacity was likely to be sufficient to satisfy consumers’ needs. 33 Quoted Exchange Rate: 1 US $ = 2.000 Indonesian Rupees. . The first led to increased electricity generating costs. while during daytime. could not be used anymore. this was not a problem. in turn. Some adapters and cables of the PV-modules were also abraded and needed to be replaced. The whole situation led to strikes and civil commotion. which was created in the village before and which was in charge of the hybrid system. a 40 kW Diesel Genset. proved that this assumption was wrong. all settlements obtain electricity service.500 Indonesian Rupees. On the other hand. the consumption rose to 238 kWh/d. however. which where experienced by system failures. while the latter led to massive frustration among consumers. The organisation committee. because those devices. Soon after connection. But when other consumers began to follow this behaviour. The system applies two different load limitations.

and the purchasing power of the respective county. for the demonstration projects. and therefore it was in many villages avoided to run the diesel genset to save the additional costs for fuel. 2003). and was reviewed in 2000 (GTZ.1 System Design The hybrid systems for village electrification were designed and meant for 24-hours supply. Hybrid Village Systems 4.2 Hybrid Systems in Inner Mongolia 4. 4.1 Hybrid Systems in Inner Mongolia Applied Systems PV/Diesel Systems Wind/Diesel Systems Wind/Diesel Systems Different Hybrid Systems Place Inner Mongolia Inner Mongolia China Sea Remote Repeater Stations Battery Bank 300 W Wind-Generator PV/Wind Systems Household Systems 100 W PV-Generator Battery Bank Hybrid Village Systems Application System Configuration Wind.2. Huhhot. repeater stations and as household systems. as many project examples on SHS. Table 4. However.4 Project Examples 49 4. It was assumed that the village governments/the operator were willing and able to pay for the additional diesel.2.2. experiences showed that this assumption was wrong.or PV-Generator up to 10 kW Diesel Genset. proximity to the parent company of HDNTC. Prolonged power cuts due to low availability of renewable resources were accepted. the actual and projected demand for electricity. The project presented here was taking place from 1990 till the end of 1999. 8-24 kW Criteria for the selection of projects sites were the quality of wind and solar resources. Through the executing company Hua De New Technology Company (HDNTC). Table 4.1 Baseline China and Inner Mongolia have been supporting the adaptation of renewable energies for rural electrification very strongly over recent years. a distance of more than 50 km from the conventional grid.2. in some villages the availability .1 gives an overview.2 Project Description This project was implemented to locally produce and use wind and solar energy systems to solve problems with the availability of energy in rural areas. different hybrid systems were installed for village electrification. It was observed that guiding principle for the operators was to minimise costs. Main focus was the transfer of technical knowledge. wind farms or other prove.

and 34 Quoted Exchange Rate (5/2000): 4 Renminbi = 1 DM = 0. More appropriate after-sales service is difficult. The tariff system was.51 €. radios and TV. The electricity fee was experienced to be paid regularly by the consumers. To account this. downtimes of one or two months may occur. too. which was strongly accounted to the high acceptance of the system. Operation and Maintenance of the Systems There was no agreed management system on the plants with the villages. With the installation of the hybrid systems. Costs and Tariffs The village centres applied one fixed tariff. according to the affordability by the users and the objective of operational cost recovery.4 Renminbi/kWh34 and was set by the village government after a test phase of one or two months. however. The main problem was that a transparent and comparable bookkeeping was not introduced. the tariffs were found not to cover the full costs of the systems. In cases of major breakdowns and need for spare parts from Germany. found to be sufficiently transparent and known by everybody concerned.8 – 2. The chosen operators were then trained by HDNTC with a Mobile Training Bus and an additional on-the-job-training during and after installation. Development of Electricity Demand The development of electricity consumption showed the expected effects. Due to high investment costs for the systems. with all consequential costs. the households were connected to an electricity meter to pay the consumption-based tariff. Households use typical appliances as irons. This approach is pragmatic and very user-oriented. however. . no differentiation is made according to the amount of power consumed or to the point of time of consumption. Here. the village governments and the households contributed with connection fees in the range of 350-1. financial and operational management were separated in many villages for better control of revenues. which is in the range of 1. However. Electricity is mainly used for lighting. but problematic due to the fixed tariff. leaving the total management performance much to individual perceptions and attitudes of the operator. Subsidies between 60 to 80% of the initial investment were necessary. since many villages are situated at far distances from the company. it seems that it was not understood that this intermittent mode of operation increased the risk of reduced technical lifetime of the battery bank. but only the costs of operation. it was mostly the operator being responsible for the collection of the electricity fees. This shows clearly that the willingness to pay for the convenience of 24-hours electrification was not given.4 Project Examples 50 of electricity supply was reduced to 4 hours/day. The operator or the village government are responsible for maintenance of the systems and all expenditures on it.000 Renminbi per household. In the beginning. in most cases the villages decided to choose the actual operator of their previously used diesel genset to operate the hybrid system. However. HDNTC can be contacted via telephone and gives advises in cases of technical problems. progressive tariffs depending on the consumption or seasonal adjustment of tariffs to the operation costs would be helpful instead in order to reduce peak load demands. Later.

In other regions. Experiences here where. they were rarely replaced due to the high purchase costs. local banks installed electrical warning systems. Households were. many electrical appliances can be used by the customers. This training needed to be very comprehensive. PV/Wind hybrid household systems in Inner Mongolia require high initial investment and can therefore only be afforded by higher income households. the users were trained with the Mobile Training Bus of HDNTC. Most household systems were paid by instalments. Families caused almost a quarter of system breakdowns due to lack of knowledge of the system and neglecting attitudes towards maintenance. Problems with the installed capacity were experienced in villages with a rather high number of inhabitants as Wuliji (600 inhabitants). cost data and service time experienced indicate that PV/Wind systems are the most cost-effective option for decentralised household electricity supply from a point of view of electricity generating costs. the demand was tried to be controlled by an increase of tariffs. For the sale of the systems.2 Hybrid Household Systems System Purchase and Costs Compared to other household systems. Hospitals use X-ray equipment or sonographs. which was technically easily feasible.2. But once these bulbs were broken. because families in Inner Mongolia are usually herdsmen and come rarely to urban areas. In smaller villages as Yingen (200 inhabitants). Sometimes.4 Project Examples 51 working equipment as drilling machines. However. which makes the sale a risk for HDNTC being the creditor. However. An overview on cost details can be found in Annex D. by optimisation of supply or through control of demand by adapting regulations on consumption behaviour. 4.2.3 Electricity Generating Costs from Different Sources. electric water pumps are used for irrigation purposes. however. which obviously stroke poor families more. Development of Electricity Demand Due to the relatively high installed capacity of the hybrid systems. This problem was met in Wuliji by extension of the system. on the other hand. because a contract on maintenance was not concluded between HDNTC and the system owners. disappointing. Nevertheless. Moreover. constant problem occurring was the balance of energy demand in the households: in some cases people wanted to use more appliances than the systems were designed for. this capacity problem was partly also met by extension of the system. Because of this. Operation and Maintenance As in the case of village systems. The experiences showed that most people were willing to adapt to these regulation. The installed 10 kW Wind/Diesel system reached its capacity limit within two years. dealers were engaged as mediators for HDNTC. . and boarding schools apply washing machines. some families stayed without electricity after system breakdowns between two and five months. found to be very conscious on matters of energy saving by using energy saving bulbs in the beginning. experiences in Inner Mongolia were good in this regard. the same capacity as above still met the electricity demand at the time of project review.

The acceptance of the system was. . The owners of household systems manage them by themselves and expand them according to their need and purchasing power.2. SHS have a higher degree of acceptance. because a market for renewable energy devices already exists. for the village systems. however. The experiences show that the village supply systems are a persuasive demonstration for a decentralised RE supply system not only for village inhabitants. but also for scattered households who feel motivated to buy a household system. however. financing schemes need to be supportive. The installed capacity is simply to low for income generating activities. Of course. found to be high. Compared to SHS.3 Aspects of System Dissemination The dissemination of hybrid systems by market mechanisms alone is the ultimate goal for the sustainability of the project presented here. 4. the project review states scepticism due to high initial investment costs and considered subsidies to remain essential for their dissemination. mainly due to the fact that the wind generator in the PV/Wind system has shown to be a bit temperamental. However. For PV/Wind household systems. The users apparently tolerated downtimes for repairs without being negatively influenced on their opinion on the systems. China and Inner Mongolia provide relatively good conditions in this respect. the users were less satisfied. especially compared to diesel gensets and their high costs for operation.4 Project Examples 52 Miscellaneous Aspects As is usually the case with SHS.e. and service provision to other families is not possible due to far distances between scattered households in Inner Mongolia. direct economic benefits could also not be attributed to the application of PV/Wind household systems. the circumstances with regard to i. however. further dissemination without subsidisation and just by market mechanisms alone are stated to be feasible in the project review.

Leasing is an option of lower risk for the dealers since it is considerably less complicated to retrieve the equipment in case the consumers neglect their duty to pay the monthly leasing rates. 5. which can be sup- . For this. equipment dealers usually lack financial background to offer credit to local consumers. and direct equipment sale has proven to be difficult already in the case of SHS. the key success factors in approaching a sustainable electrification project with hybrid systems shall be discussed in this section. as is in the case of SHS. thus. but which has not yet gained major importance due to the same reason of insufficient working capital on the side of the dealers as in case of credit based purchase (ESMAP. Dominican Republic). and this is likely to remain so in the future due to the fact that credit is rarely available in rural areas and is just provided to consumers with secure occupations. the provision of working capital is to be ensured. To achieve this.1 Organisation Decision on the distribution model The World Bank distinguishes two major distribution or sales models to be applied in developing countries (ESMAP. financing. Investment costs are simply too high for hybrid systems. Moreover. the responsibility for maintenance and repair is transferred to the purchaser.e. important aspects of organisation. funding of the dealers shall be provided by local banks. Sustainability needs also to be ensured by implementing the system in a way that guarantees a sustainable self-contained operation after project implementation. and capacity building will be discussed on the basis of a literature review. nor can poor communities commonly afford hybrid systems for electrification of villages. which has been successfully implemented in some countries (i. ownership. Another option for equipment sales is leasing. The approach of direct equipment sales therefore demands to make funds available to dealers in order to give them the possibility to provide credit to rural population or to create a leasing model. These models are presented in the following. demand assessment and management.5 Key success factors 53 5 Key success factors Sustainability describes a dynamic process. With the approach of selling equipment directly to individuals. The systems can be purchased either on cash or credit basis. 2001). Direct Equipment Sales: The approach of direct equipment sales commonly refers to sale of complete systems rather than components. and therefore it is not enough to ensure whether hybrid systems are likely to be a sustainable option for rural electrification. although it involves less investment than hybrid systems for an individual consumer. for the adaptation of leasing. operation and maintenance. For hybrid systems the approach of direct equipment sales is adequate if an appropriate credit or leasing system is set up. Predominating option is cash sales. Neither will individual poor households be able to purchase hybrid home system on cash basis. Ideally. on the other hand there is the sale of electricity service approach. 2001): on the one hand there is the equipment-sale approach.

Common experiences in developing countries especially with SHS show that if . is the fact that in many countries electricity service provision is restricted to only national utility. however. however.e. the electricity service company may receive a subsidy per user. Identification of Responsibility For the electrification of a rural village. although being probably even more financially sustainable. however. but also demands high involvement by donor organisations. In order to make electricity affordable to even the poorest among the rural population. are very important for the mini-grid in several respects: Firstly. In an ideal model. As an option or in addition. R. depending on the actual local situation. Problematic for the adaptation of this approach is the fact that in remote areas electricity service companies are rarely existent. Basic problem of all projects applying renewable energies is the fact that knowledge and therefore necessary infrastructure is rarely existent in rural areas. therefore requiring new political regulations (ESMAP. questions of ownership and responsibility. In fact. Recent approaches. credits can also be made available to consumers by such banks. General problem in the approach to provide electricity services through private companies or businessman. The question for hybrid systems is which of these models to favour. 2001).. The alternative is then to build capacity among small local companies through business advisory services and business development.5 Key success factors 54 ported by international organisations as the World Bank. Sale of Electricity Service: This approach is called “Dispersed Area Concession Model” by the World Bank and gives an electricity service company exclusive right to provide electricity service to a certain area by concession. the isolation of these rural areas makes them highly unattractive for substantial private participation at any level of subsidy (Tomkins. 2001). Criterion for decision is either - the least grant necessary for a predetermined number of connections. The winning company then constructs the energy provision system including distribution lines. The Global Environmental Facility (GEF) recommends to task managers of single electrification projects to experiment with both approaches individually in order to then decide for the most appropriate one (GEF. focus rather on supporting private providers of electricity supply and to support them with subsidies in order to ease access to electricity for poor population. 2000). both local and foreign companies are bidding for the right to provide the electricity service exclusively. It is assumed that this approach is likely to open up and strengthen markets for decentralised electrification and therefore result in an increase of equipment sales (ESMAP. The decision will therefore always be an individual one. responsibility for the power plant is important with regard to theft and vandalism.). i. the operational structure for the mini-grids to be established. This approach. is not only comparatively time-consuming. or the maximum number of concessions possible with a given grant (Tomkins. 2003). R. Users are provided electricity after paying a certain connection fee and through paying a monthly cost-based tariff.

The appropriate solutions will vary strongly between countries and even among different villages in the same region.. Important issues to be addressed with regard to sustainable maintenance structures include the following: Identification and Training of Technicians for System Operation and Maintenance: The identification of technicians within the rural community is a crucial and important task in setting up a maintenance structure. but also with other renewable energy technologies as SHS. the second approach of creating co-operatives or user groups. require regular maintenance. In general.. and he will by his own interest prevent the plant from theft and vandalism. Sheriff. clear responsibility for the financial management of a plant is necessary in order to ensure the payment of bills from the customers. is rather difficult in the case of hybrid systems. especially with regard to leadership in order to avoid failures and severe problems. D. It should. because it is strongly matter of their trust among each other and of their ability to work together whether such an approach will be successful. and knowledge about maintenance is usually very limited. and ensure the payment of bills. since training requirements are high and complex and need high involvement especially with regard to maintenance. especially the crucial parts of a hybrid system. 2001). Then all responsibility is left to him. The decision on the appropriate organisational model is difficult. even slight problems with the system can become major issues and lead to complete breakdown of electricity supply. This approach is very common in developing countries and has a strong advantage by committing the village’s population to the project. Therefore.. which one to prefer in the case of hybrid systems. then theft and vandalism can become severe problems and compromise the whole success of the electrification project. take care of operation and maintenance. S. Moreover. - The World Bank distinguishes two different scenarios (ESMAP. a clear knowledge on responsibility is essential for operation and maintenance of the system. and a general recommendation. prove the importance of sustainable maintenance structures. Not even costly and well-designed systems with high quality components can reliably provide electricity without regular and proper maintenance.5 Key success factors 55 the question of responsibility is not solved. Secondly. however. Pneumaticos. 2000a): Either the hybrid power plant and the corresponding mini-grid are installed by a private entrepreneur. F. depending on the specific local conditions. meaning a co-operative or a user group. Clear assignment of responsibility helps a lot to avoid problems in this regard. Applying renewable energies for rural electrification is a new and innovative approach. Implementing sustainable maintenance structures Experiences not only with hybrid systems. the organisational structure must be set up very carefully. battery bank and charge controller. If private entrepreneurs are chosen for the . Failure rates of these components can be reduced from three every year to one every two years if just inspection and maintenance are carried out carefully (Turcotte. Thirdly. The other possibility is some form of village ownership. be avoided to press from outside village inhabitants to form such organisations. one has to take into account that this organisational solution brings with it higher risks for the local community. cannot be given here. Moreover. Without appropriate maintenance structures.

however. which are ideally situated in the vicinity of the centre. 2000a). Establishment of Regional Maintenance Centres: System operators should optimally have contact persons with higher technical expertise (ESMAP. a pool of potential later technical experts can be created. For hybrid systems. . but to involve as many interested people as possible (ESMAP. Schaeffer. which cannot be solved by the operator individually. the approach of assigning the responsibility for the system to elder persons has proved to be recommendable. These people then can be asked in case technical problems occur. Young people tend to be more open to changes and are more likely to move away to urban areas after a while (ESMAP. and the implementing organisation needs to monitor success after project implementation. then others can take over seamlessly. and people with highest capability as well as respect among other village inhabitants can be chosen in the end. if outside organisations take over responsibility for guiding the implementation process. as for example in a project at Galapagos Islands.. Otherwise. which have the necessary potential for economic development and are in need of such a system.e. L. For this. then the choice of the technicians is of course to be left to them. 2000a). the main objective is not to have high staff turnover on this position. This. since maintenance centres in nearby urban areas are not available and therefore need to be erected. A. Maintenance centres can serve this function of guidance and technical knowledge backup. For the application of hybrid systems it therefore seems to be essential to choose areas with a considerable number of potential communities. can only be achieved if these centres serve a substantial number of villages. the question of maintenance centres is difficult. these centres should be financially self-sufficient and not need financial assistance. 1996). A rule of thumb from the application of SHS in the Dominican Republic is that systems should not be further away than 50 km from a service centre (Cabraal. illness. M. Ideally. When deciding for a system operator. the World Bank recommends not to decide for one or two system operators in the very beginning of the project implementation process. Training of system operators is a long-term process and cannot be performed with in a couple of days.. too (ESMAP. This remoteness can become a problem for hybrid systems.. Also the engagement of young people as system operators. Not only has the potentially higher degree of respect and acceptance of elder people within rural communities played a role here. Cosgrove-Davies. having been educated at school recently. People need to be involved in the whole implementation process for a deeper understanding of the power plant. just having graduated and looking for work. Hybrid systems are commonly implemented for electrification of remote areas. 2000b).5 Key success factors 56 provision of electricity. 2000a). Moreover. has shown to be problematic. in case the chosen operator is at times not available in the future due to i. By this.

warrants the higher financial burden for the consumer. thus. It is to be found out how much the potential consumers are willing to invest to get access to and to pay for the provision of electricity services in order to determine the investment and operation costs. Prior to the decision. As a rule of thumb.2 Financing Willingness. but also the operational costs often used to be covered to a large extent by subsidies. Common approaches usually investigate the current expenditure of rural households on kerosene. 2000a): capital costs for the implementation of the mini-grid project fuel costs for the diesel genset. Affordability of electrical appliances and electricity services is difficult to determine and closely linked to energy demand assessment. failed. Costs for hybrid systems can be broken down to the following aspects (ESMAP. maintenance and overhauling costs for equipment replacement Finding the most appropriate way for covering these costs is a difficult matter. not only the implementation or connection costs. it needs to be found out whether the demand for 24-hours electrification as can be provided by hybrid systems is given and whether the economic potential. if applied costs for operation. 2001). which these systems certainly offer. Operational costs should be covered by consumers themselves from the beginning. which are likely to be covered by consumers themselves.5. It is obvious that rural population is likely to be interested in electrification and. as is described in section 5. Investigating both willingness. But whether people can actually afford electrification is a different question of equal importance and cannot be answered by simple investigation of willingness-topay. . which involve rather high investment and electricity generating costs. 2000a: Annex 5.and Ability-to-pay for the electricity service of rural population Investigating the consumer’s willingness-to-pay is one of the key issues to be determined prior to any electrification project. This approach.5 Key success factors 57 5. willing to pay for it. Investigating the consumer’s willingness-to-pay is commonly done on the basis of questionnaires. In areas where steady income is not guaranteed.and ability-to-pay is of major importance especially in the case of hybrid systems. candles. the World Bank estimates that about 15 percent of the disposable income is usually spent on all such energy services (ESMAP.4). which option for rural electrification is to be chosen. however. Based on the objective to provide electricity to even the poorest among the poor.35 However. disposable batteries for radios and rechargeable car-batteries and the costs for their recharging. Otherwise it was experienced that consumers op- 35 Examples can be found at the World Bank (ESMAP. the effects of this fact on affordability are to be taken into account. Correct pricing of electricity – setting up a sustainable tariff structure Correct pricing of electricity is probably the most important success factor to be described here. pure investigation of consumer’s willingness-to-pay has been found to be shortsighted.

It is therefore widely agreed nowadays that grants and subsidies should only be given on implementation costs. 2003. this method is of special interest because it attenuates a disadvantage of these technologies compared to diesel gensets-based electrification: if consumers temporarily do not have money to afford electricity. thus awarding energy-saving consumer behaviour through lower energy bills. the emphasis on poverty alleviation by subsidising can restrict sustainable market expansion. Setting up a sustainable tariff structure cannot be done by following a single and proven formula for success. which makes it an additional test of user’s demand and preferences concerning electrification. If time-of-day meters are applied. which needs to be applied to any decentralised rural electrification project.. a more constant flow of operational income can be expected. billing and money collecting. 36 Personal Comment given by Mr. This approach uses magnetic cards or tokens. Energy-based tariffs: The approach of applying energy-based tariffs is probably the most equitable one. however. Common for all tariff structures. et al. . However. Moreover. conventional energy meters do not limit consumption. Different approaches exist. and therefore it might come out that wealthier households consume that much that minigrids with limited capacity are overloaded. 1998). which can be bought by the consumers and with which the consumer purchases the possibility to consume a certain amount of electricity. the use of power during offpeak times is encouraged additionally. on July. as World Bank (ESMAP. discourage investment. whether money is available at that time or not. less welleducated consumers might have difficulties in understanding the meter and how to read it. in order not to undermine the other users’ paying morality. however.L. with diesel gensets the purchase of diesel fuel can be reduced or stopped. For electrification projects applying renewable energies. 7th. which often led to financial difficulties and even to failures of electrification projects. In summary.. In order to avoid problems associated with meter reading. Finally. Moreover. the option of energy-based tariffs is applied in cases where there is a reasonable number of potential consumers and where ability and willingness to pay allow the application of this rather sophisticated tariff system.5 Key success factors 58 posed to later tariff increases to fully cover operational costs themselves. This tariff allows appropriate charging according to the real individual consumption by applying an energy meter. 2000a) is presented in the following. An overview about potential solutions as described by the World Bank in (ESMAP. is one rule. W. resulting in unexpected high bills. 2003). Dubois. and each of them can be applied successfully depending on the specific circumstances. With fee-for-service. fee-for-service is as well very costly with regard to equipment and support service. R. and a contribution to connection costs for households can be justified as well. However. 2000a) and KfW36 both strongly recommend: those who do not pay their monthly bills should be consequently disconnected from electricity supply. a new approach applies prepayment meters and is usually called “Fee-for-service”. Renewable energy devices.. energy meters require considerable additional investment and are therefore not suitable in small-sized mini-grids with small numbers of consumers. and hamper business development as was experienced in China (Wallace. KfW staff member. The latter subsidy on connection costs is proposed just to be partial by the World Bank (Tomkins. need to be paid off.

Generally. reliability and accuracy of electrical load limiters is often poor. furthermore. leaves more potential to fraud by bypassing the limiter. 2000). Moreover. which he is not allowed to exceed and for which he monthly pays a constant amount of money.1 gives an overview about the key issues addressed so far being important with regard to distribution. GTZ. In comparison to energy-based tariffs the power-based tariff is easier to understand for consumers and requires less effort for payment collection. . However. Energy-based tariffs using energy meters are applied for well-income consumers and businesses as restaurants. overloading of the system can be avoided and every user gets the same possibility of access to electricity services. this approach generally restricts availability of electricity to consumers and. while power-based tariffs can be applied to other users. To avoid this problem. reliable load limiters are mostly less expensive than reliable energy meters. In practice. in Eschborn/Germany on August 14th.. but on the maximum amount of power likely to be consumed. electrification projects will most likely apply a mixture of both tariffs. However. et al.38 37 38 Personal Comment Jörg Baur. organisation and financing. 2003. This approach obviously depends much on the honesty of the consumers and is disadvantageous in this respect since it does not apply control mechanisms. while the second approach of power-based tariffs is likely to be better applicable in mini-grids with a concise number of consumers and well-established social structures.37 Figure 5. Roman Ritter. an oral or written agreement with the consumer limits his consumption to a predetermined level according to his appliances. as was experienced for example in Indonesia (Preiser. power consumption can be limited electrically by regulating the current into the home. In the most simple variation.5 Key success factors 59 Power-based tariffs: This tariff-scheme is not based on metering of actual electricity consumption. Source: Own illustration. it can be stated that the first approach of energy-based tariffs is well applicable in mini-grids of a substantial size with a considerable number of consumers. Moreover. K..

thus needing subsidies.5 Key success factors 60 Rural Electrification with Hybrid Village Systems Sales Model Distribution Model Cash Credit Leasing Existing Utility Service Model Communitybased Provider Open-Market Provider System Owner Buyer Buyer Dealer Energy Service Company (ESCo) Operator Private Entrepreneur Village Co-operative ESCo Maintenance Operator Local Technician ESCo Energy-based Tariff Power-based Tariff Tariff Energy Meters Agreement Fee-for-Service Load Limiters Applicable for Large Mini-grids Small Mini-grids Evaluation Unlikely due to low profits. In order to exploit the full potential a hybrid system offers. Most likely approach. Education on Demand-side management Hybrid systems are installed at certain capacities and are therefore limited.1 Hybrid Village Systems: Distribution Steps 5. Aspects as the education of technicians are part of capacity building. . For other private providers. education on demand-side management is advisable. Other important aspects on capacity building are to be discussed in the following. thus subsidies necessary. the potential profit is too low for involvement. demands high donor involvement Public power utility is usually not interested much in decentralised rural electrification due to high costs.3 Capacity Building Capacity Building is a major aspect for the success of any project implemented in developing countries. Figure 5. but have already been outlined above.

Firstly. project examples are an important aspect for the dissemination of knowledge on hybrid systems. then awareness rising is essential. A successful project for rural electrification with hybrid systems should prepare the ground for economic development. This is especially important in order not to raise unreasonable expectations. 2000a). the installed capacity of a hybrid system may soon be insufficient to meet the demand. an example can be found at the World Bank (ESMAP. If consumers are not aware of it. i. ironing. Education on Business Planning If the potential of hybrid systems is to be fully exploited. Common for the use of electricity in developing countries is the occurrence of a relatively high peak demand during evening hours. If markets for hybrid systems are to be developed. Population in rural areas in developing countries are commonly sceptic towards unknown approaches in the first place.e. Other issues to be addressed in consumer education include theft of power and safety. If other appliances are used at the same time.5 Key success factors 61 Demand-side management in the first place refers to consumption habits. will not be tolerated. Demand-side management also refers to the use of energy-saving appliances such as energy saving bulbs. i. a policy encouraging the payment of bills by disconnecting non-paying consumers from electricity supply needs to be established. and can be included in an agreement. and to guide them in using it correctly by performing activities. These include especially financial obligations: the understanding of the need to pay for receiving electricity is not to be taken for granted. which is to be signed by the consumers. The example of Inner Mongo- . This policy is best to be established in a written manner. and prefer to be convinced by being informed about the possibilities and the functioning of hybrid systems visually. then rural population should not be left alone with the system. Education of Consumers on Obligations and Behaviour Another aspect in educating consumers deals with the obligations related to the connection to an electricity supply system. which do not necessarily have to take place in the evening. through bypassing energy meters or current limiters. as setting up business plans. during daytime. Additionally. etc. and therefore helps to better exploit the potential of a hybrid system. Two major possibilities are worth mentioning. the limitation of their electricity supply system can lead to consumer’s dissatisfaction and frustration. This has to be explained to consumers in order to make the project a financial success. Especially in the case of household systems. Hybrid systems strongly need accompanying with regard to economic development by teaching about important aspects of business founding. but also for larger systems in case of village electrification. Awareness Rising as a Means of Market Development The issue of awareness rising refers to making public hybrid systems as an option for rural electrification. and electrical lines and appliances should be handled with caution (ESMAP. this question is of major importance. 2000a).e. The issue of safety should be addressed because for many areas electricity is a new commodity. which cannot be obtained by electrification alone. when for example lights are switched on everywhere in the village. This agreement describes explicitly all obligations for the potential consumers. This reduces electricity consumption considerably. It is therefore important to make consumers aware of the limitations of the system. Consumers must be aware that theft of power.

5 Key success factors 62 lia. on August 14th. S. since it increases system costs especially in the case of photovoltaic-based systems remarkably (Turcotte. Pneumaticos. F. For the purpose of developing markets. he will tell this to his friends and neighbours and make them aware of the possibility to use hybrid systems for electrification. However. especially with regard to maintenance requirements.. This fact increases the importance of pilot projects for awareness rising. By informing and training the staff of multiplier organisations as local non-governmental organisations (NGOs). include (ESMAP. the regional administration or others.4. S. GTZ. Secondly. Key requirement from a technical point of view is simplicity and reliability (Turcotte. Sheriff. the dissemination of hybrid systems can be promoted. Experts see the point of reliability as a major hurdle for the adaptation of hybrid systems in developing countries. Other aspects.39 - 39 Personal Comment given by Jörg Baur. project examples should not be seen as the end of dissemination activities. multiplier organisations can play an important role. Pneumaticos. which can be addressed by these organisations. D. but are due to rather frequent failures of components’ integration... But real market development can just take place through replication (Richards. it can be stated that for awareness rising in developing countries the word-ofmouth propaganda is the most effective way. The same phenomenon applies to hybrid systems for village electrification: if the neighbour village owns one and feels satisfied. oversizing of the renewable energy generator is not an option. Sheriff.2. The trained staff can then multiply the obtained information by teaching the interested public about the possibilities of hybrid systems. 5. 2001). . Most technical problems observed with hybrid system are not result of failures of single components itself. Local institutions or NGOs can play an even greater role than just capacity building. 1999). Key success factors from a technical point of view are the following: The design of hybrid systems should always seek to maximise utilisation of local resources in order to keep the use diesel fuel low.. For hybrid systems. this issue is a major challenge. 2003). proves this (GTZ. too. F. 2003. since these systems are rather sophisticated. pilot projects indeed can contribute to the sale of the technology. If someone owns a hybrid household system and feels satisfied with it. However. D. they are rather a tool. the other villages are likely to get interested as well.. et al.4 Technical Aspects Main technical aspects of hybrid systems have already been discussed in chapter 2.. 2001): o assessment of electricity demand prior to the project o provision of credit guarantees or cash sales for group lending o independent operation of the hybrid system o financing Generally. in Eschborn/Germany.. 2001). where project examples in rural administrative villages contributed to the dissemination of especially household systems. E..

Demand in the surveyed region is not kept down by applying consumption restrictions due to limited installed capacity. 2000a). which is likely not to be connected to conventional grid during the lifetime of the system.1.4. Therefore.4. and may soon lead to dissatisfaction of consumers if future growth is not accurately forecasted in advance. Similar tariffs are applied in the surveyed regions as are planned for the new project. 5. then this period has to be accounted for growth projections. 2000a). for appropriate comparison certain restrictions apply for the surveyed area: The surveyed area should have a similar type of electricity service. the potential of hybrid systems to economic development is comparatively high. which describes major technical aspects in detail (ESMAP. the electricity demand is likely to increase substantially. two different aspects are of major importance: Demand Assessment and Projections The assessments of current demand for electricity as well as projections of future growth in demand are essential. and the corresponding financial burden in terms of the monthly bills for electricity supply cannot be overviewed by them. However. As described in chapter 3. the World Bank proposes to assess electricity demand by surveying adjoining. The relevance results from the fact that over sizing of the hybrid system inherently increases the overall system costs. 2000a): If the system is to be installed in a region. while underestimation of load demand is likely to entail frustration on poor system performance due to excessive consumption. which is lower than the system’s lifetime. As the project examples in chapter 4 prove. meaning 24-hour power supply in the case of hybrid systems. but also the history of load growth can be determined and taken into consideration. two different situations need to be distinguished (ESMAP.2. it is here referred to the Mini-Grid Design Manual published by the World Bank. as the World Bank describes (ESMAP. For a hybrid system. The knowledge of so far non-electrified households on their real demand for electricity is very limited. However. By doing so. The approach of simply asking households for their potential electricity demand is not sufficient. already-electrified regions with similar characteristics (ESMAP. but also of potential future growth is of major importance for hybrid systems. the optimal system performance is closely linked to an accurate demand assessment. which expects grid-based electrification in medium-term perspective. making adequate load projections is frequently a very difficult task. then the growth in demand during the whole lifetime has to be accounted.5 Key success factors 63 For information on key technical issues to be considered when erecting mini-grids in developing countries in general. - . For this reason. The assessment of not only actual demand for electricity.5 Assessment of Electricity Demand and Potential for Renewable Energies In order to guarantee optimal sizing of hybrid systems and the application of the most suitable hybrid combinations. 2000a). If the system is to be installed in a region. not only the actual demand for electricity.

legalisation of rural energy markets In many countries legislation does not allow for private operators to provide electricity services. Sector reforms may be necessary. value-added taxes or other taxes. Establishing electricity laws. Foley. can do much to obtain information on demand and future growth (Barnes. Elimination of Tax and Duty Barriers The introduction of renewable energy technologies in many countries faces obstacles from unfair import duties.6 Political Factors The political framework is a major issue for decentralised electrification as well. G. the potential of wind power and/or the extent of insolation need to be investigated prior to project implementation. A general problem in developing countries concerning the role of government results from unrealistic promises during election campaigns. Project developers report from the example of Morocco that the promise to extend the conventional grid to non-electrified areas had the ef- . 2001).e. This then needs to be changed in a way that allows private operators to supply electricity to regions without electricity. Investigation of the Potential for Hybrid Systems for Electrification In order to assess the potential for hybrid systems for electrification of a certain area. 1998). ideally through policy statements and direct support of respective initiatives. accurate assessment of these resources is important. which require converse occurrence of insolation and wind power in order to produce electricity on a 24-hours basis. since this is traditionally the exclusive right of national or regional utility.5 Key success factors 64 An important role in assessing energy demand plays the population itself: involvement of rural population. D. which need to be eliminated in order to make the option of renewable energy. Moreover. 5.. and with it hybrid systems. Three key issues can be identified (ESMAP. i. The World Bank states that no project on electrification has ever succeeded without the backing of political will (ESMAP. 2001): Defining the Role of the Government The central and local governments need to be involved from the very beginning and to demonstrate commitment to decentralised electrification. a rural electrification committee. and supporting institutions might need to be established. competitive. and therefore it is tried here to state the main political framework conditions for decentralised hybrid system projects. Especially in the case of PV/Wind hybrid systems. subsidies on diesel fuel or kerosene need to be lowered or fully eliminated in order to decrease competitive disadvantages of renewable energy technologies.. This is essential for choosing the appropriate system design and to quantify the share of the renewable energy resource for electricity generation.

28th. Main issues to be addressed include environmental concerns for fossil fuel powered sources.. because they fear then to be ignored when the grid connection becomes possible. F. growing demand for electricity in developing countries. at Intersolar Fair in Freiburg/Germany. . S.40 People rather remain without electrification for some more years than to be electrified with other systems. with hybrid systems. Fraunhofer ISE – Club für ländliche Elektrifizierung. and ongoing advances in technology (Turcotte. Decentralised electrification is often seen as a second class electrification.. and grid connection is preferred strongly. For the project developers it is therefore important when addressing the governments to intensively inform them about the benefits of rural electrification with decentralised systems. i.5 Key success factors 65 fect that decentralised solutions were not accepted among rural population. and general characteristics of electrification.e. Pneumaticos. 2001).. D. on June. 2003. 40 Personal Comment given by Dirk-Uwe Sauer. Sheriff.

The assessment was performed in comparative terms relative to other solutions for rural electricity supply by using an indicator set developed within this work. Common practice to meet the problem of rural electrification in developing countries is the use of diesel gensets. therefore. was and is the intermittent supply of power due to the fluctuating nature of the resources. The assessment revealed that from a point of view of environmental and socio-economic sustainability. therefore. main advantages include reliable and continuous energy supply and. since diesel gensets usually cannot evolve the full potential of electrification for rural development. and is integral part especially for furtherance of economic progress. Main strengths of hybrid systems from an environmental perspective include low emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants compared to conventional methods for rural electrification. Renewable energies are an environmental benign solution for rural electrification. which hybrid . are questions of financing and maintenance. The main problem for the application of renewable energies in rural electricity supply. In many cases renewable energies have failed to meet the expectations of rural population. on the other hand due to problems with reliability of the systems. is as well unfavourable not only from an environmental. As is the case always for the application of renewable energies as PV and wind in developing countries.. however. thus. was to generally assess the sustainability of hybrid systems for rural electrification with regard to environmental. renewable energies. however. Despite these numerous advantages. This approach. Modern approaches. It was argued that in order to fully exploit the potential. but also from a socio-economic and economic perspective. the application of renewable energies for rural electrification has not yet been the success story it was expected to be. however. This problem is recently met with the application of hybrid systems. a good potential for economic development. Objective of this work. socio-economic and economic issues. did not result in a clear yes concerning their application. i. from a socio-economic perspective. hybrid systems are likely to be more beneficial than are other technologies. which has lead to customer dissatisfaction in many cases. rural electrification is a problematic issue.6 Summary and Conclusions 66 6 Summary and Conclusions Rural electrification is commonly seen as essential part for the development of rural areas in developing countries. However. and that expectations associated to decentralised rural electrification are likely to be met. and to identify key success factors to improve the sustainability of a hybrid rural electrification project. on the one hand by unrealistically high expectations on side of the population. Problematic. thus. use locally available resources and offer a high potential with regard to local independence compared to grid extension and diesel gensets.e. The assessment of sustainability of hybrid systems. and can as well be undesirable from a point of view of environmental sustainability. these issues are major hurdles and require attention during the planning of hybrid system projects and high donor involvement through subsidies and the development of maintenance structures. and have several additional benefits related to their use. however. since they are less dependent on external interference. address the challenge of rural electrification with decentralised energy supply systems applying renewable energies. The extension of the conventional grid is often economically not feasible for remote rural areas.

and the potential to meet the demand with renewable energies for an appropriate system design. the assessment of electricity demand now and projected to the future. issues of financing as the investigation of willingness. Moreover. for which the preconditions and circumstances allow to expect the full evolvement of the system’s potential. Hybrid systems are here assessed to be a promising approach for decentralised rural electrification. the results allow the statement that hybrid systems can be a sustainable option.and ability-to-pay for electricity service. This paper has also identified key factors to successfully apply hybrid systems in developing countries. however. should and cannot be seen as the ultimate solution for rural electrification in developing countries.6 Summary and Conclusions 67 systems certainly can offer especially with regard to economic development. meanwhile being more environmentally benign. and political framework conditions and several technical aspects. hybrid systems require a holistic approach towards electrification. a certain economic development should already be taking place in the area to be electrified. Although the assessment here was performed in rather global terms and although therefore in individual cases the assessment might be a different one. For an analysis of respective projects. Hybrid systems. since economic benefits not just depend on the availability of energy. Despite their advantages. certain framework conditions need to be established. the indicator set developed here might provide a framework for the assessment whether environmental and socio-economic surpluses attributable to hybrid systems justify the high investment and the necessary effort in setting up maintenance structures. but also on other conditions favouring economic development. capacity building as an essential condition to create the appropriate framework for economic development and for correct use of the hybrid systems. . Main issues to be addressed include organisational issues with decision on appropriate distribution models and the implementation of sustainable maintenance schemes. They might therefore be applied within the context of whole electrification programmes for remote rural areas as an integral part of a set of different methods. and they might then ideally be chosen for those villages in the region. which make them comparable to the conventional grid especially with regard to the quality of electricity supply. or the implementation of an appropriate tariff system.

health care.) and public consumption (public lighting. during a telephone interview on August.).20 Annual Electricity Consumption [kWh/a] 65. while 90% are standard households. former KfW staff member.1 Calculation of Electricity Demand For the calculation. This is accounted by adding 40% excess consumption on the consumption of the individual households.8 7. the base load of the villages is calculated.2 Rich Household Characteristics Equipment Number Capacity [W] Daily Hours of Operation [h/d] 3 6 2 8 Daily Electricity Consumption [kWh/d] 0.9 Table A. etc.8 43.02 2. It is assumed here that (fictitious) 10% of all households in the village are rich. 22nd. 2003. two different types of households with different consumption behaviour are distinguished: standard households and rich households. .12 0.30 876. Erich Geis.00 Energy Saving Lamp TV (Colour) Radio Refrigerator Total 6 1 1 1 10 100 10 300 470 In a next step.02 0. etc. the peak load for different village sizes are calculated. Table A. with village sizes from 30 to 300 households. It is assumed that energy saving lighting is applied within the electrification project.41 The figures adopted here are mainly based on data from (Baur. handicraft businesses. since the diesel 41 Personal Recommendation Mr.26 Annual Electricity Consumption [kWh/a] 43. Moreover. The base load is of major importance for the design of the diesel genset in a hybrid system.40 3.18 0.1 Standard Household Characteristics Equipment Energy Saving Lamp TV (b/w) Radio Total Number Capacity [W] 4 1 1 10 20 10 70 Daily Hours of Operation [h/d] 3 6 2 Daily Electricity Consumption [kWh/d] 0. J. Additional electricity consumption results from commercial (shops.60 0.12 0..3 94.Annex A: Electricity Demand and System Design 68 Annex A: Electricity Demand and System Design A. 2000).00 1168.70 219.00 7. schools.

8 73.2 14.6 22.5 7.2 14154.8 18.9 Peak Load Annual [kWh/a] 8492.9 135.8 63696.0 35.0 5.0 55.4 31140.4 21.0 3.0 202.5 6.0 48.3 shows the results for different village sizes.0 4.0 85.0 58.0 117.0 31.5 72.0 126.0 95.5 4.6 85.0 110.0 144.5 24063.8 31.2 39633.0 75.0 70.1 174.5 90.4 15.0 135.6 10.0 250.6 116.6 18401.0 65.5 54.0 30.7 46.5 20.0 14.9 28309. Table A.0 49541.0 67.0 160.0 130.5 193.2 42464.8 42.3 93.0 48126.4 28.2 20.0 140.0 40.5 81.3 Peak and Base Loads for Different Village Sizes Number of Households Daily [kWh/d] 23. during a telephone interview on August 20th.8 108.8 12.6 16.5 225.0 85.4 40.5 9.0 60.1 45295.1 131. Institut für Solare Energieversorgungstechnik (ISET).5 63.8 12739.0 175.2 62.0 40.5 45.6 21232.9 69.0 9. Strauß.0 Annual [kWh/a] 2628 3066 3504 3942 4380 4818 5256 5694 6132 6570 7008 7446 7884 8322 8760 9636 10512 11388 12264 13140 14016 14892 15330 17520 19710 21900 Standard Rich Total 27.0 17.2 8.42 To simplify matters.0 17.2 33.0 25478.5 36.9 38.0 80.5 180.0 26.0 12.3 58.0 8.0 13. the load caused by the adaptation of refrigerators is defined as the base load.0 11.6 36.0 19.0 170.0 60.3 11323.2 70773.0 150.4 9.0 15.3 33971.8 42.Annex A: Electricity Demand and System Design 69 genset should normally be designed to satisfy the base demand.8 24.0 42 Personal Comment Mr.1 19816.7 155.5 8.0 49.0 90.0 225.0 3.0 108.1 100.0 16.7 15570.5 26893. 2003.0 99. Table A.0 76.5 5.5 56618.3 124.5 50.0 22.0 200.0 120.3 27.0 65.8 9908.0 153.0 7.1 31.5 10.3 36802.0 54.5 Base Load (Refrigerators) Daily [kWh/d] 7.0 34.7 77.0 50.4 54. .0 13.1 22647.0 100.0 45.2 16985.5 25.0 38.0 157.0 6.

it seems sufficient.4 Main Modelling Assumptions PV Modules Annual Global Radiation: 1. Strauss. good site Equals 6 h/d Own assumption.. (FHG ISE. Berger. the following basic assumptions are made: Table A. Pneumaticos.85 In Winter: 0.190 h/a Efficiency: 0. 2003)).2 kWh/m2/d Temperature Correction In Summer: 0. 44 During a telephone interview on August 20th.000 W/m2 Diesel Genset Annual operating time in Mini-Grid: 2.3 232. R. 2002). typically between 0.35 (Turcotte.Annex A: Electricity Demand and System Design 70 Number of Households Daily Peak Load Annual [kWh/a] 77850.2 System Design The design of hybrid systems here is based on personal comments by project developers and literature review (Haselhuhn. ISET44 Personal Recommendation given by Claudia Hemmerle.3 Designed to meet the base load Wind Generator Annual Full Load Hours: 2. 2003.. . Hemmerle. R.25 – 0. For the system design. 2001) Personal Recommendation Mr. Source Meteosat 2 Remarks/Source 43 During a telephone interview on August 21st. 43 Deutsche Gesellschaft für Sonnenenergie Average Site in Trapani. D.9 Norm Radiation = 1.7 247. Hemmerle.5 30..664 kWh/m /a Radiation on a surface with 10° incline In June: 7. S. Italy.0 27.0 Standard Rich Total [kWh/d] 213..0 300.0 275.. C.5 270.0 26280. F. Sheriff.9 84928. 2002) Own assumption. It is obvious that the design of the systems here is therefore rather rough and that real application of hybrid systems would require accurate system design with the help of optimisation models as for example TALCO (Technical and Least Cost Optimisation. 2003.0 Annual [kWh/a] 24090..2 Base Load (Refrigerators) Daily [kWh/d] 66. F. C. F. for a comparative assessment.0 72. (Homer. Berger..0 A. 2003)) or HOMER (Evaluation of design options.000 h/a Miscellaneous Energy losses due to inverter and battery: 24% (Haselhuhn.2 kWh/m2/d In December: 2... However.

1/3 PV Own assumption Common design for cost optimisation Based on these assumptions. 2003. the calculations lead to the following system designs for the different village sizes. . 20% Diesel Genset Remarks/Source Common design for cost optimisation PV generator is designed to meet 50% of the electricity Personal Recommendation Mr. 45 demand in winter Energiebau GmbH Wind/Diesel Hybrid Systems Share: 80 % Wind. Georg Weingarten.Annex A: Electricity Demand and System Design 71 For the different hybrid systems. 45 Given at Intersolar Fair in Freiburg/Germany on June 28th. the following share on electricity generation was attributed to the different generators: Table A.5 Share of Technologies for Electricity Generation PV/Diesel Hybrid Systems Share: 80 % PV. 20% Diesel Genset PV/Wind Hybrid Systems Share: 2/3 Wind.

0 Wind Capacity at 2000 h/a [kW] 3.7 10.8 12456.3 9.2 15.4 11323.6 .6 12.1 13588.6 21.4 11323.5 4.5 7077.4 13211.7 9.3 20.0 5.9 4.1 13588.7 15098.2 5.6 3.7 9.6% Wind [kWh/a] 5661.3 4.6 9059.8 7.5 16.5 7549.1 5661.9 9.9 12.1 6.0 10191.8 5.2 6.3%PV [kWh/a] 2830.3 16042.7 6605.Annex A: Electricity Demand and System Design 72 Total Number of Households 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 Diesel Capacity [kW] 1.1 14154.9 10.0 19250.4 2.2 5190.0 10191.7 3.1 2.9 3302.0 10.6 18118.6 4246.8 9436.8 2.8 12267.1 8.7 4.6 6.6 6.9 6133.2 8492.9 15853.4 4718.8 18.8 3774.6 9059.2 11.0 3.9 15853.5 14720.3 3.0 19250.9 6605.3 16985.8 5.0 7.7 33.9 4.3 5.3 16985.4 7549.8 12456.5 10380.5 5.0 19.4 11.2 8021.5 7.6 18118.2 6.5 3.0 3.0 System Design PV/Wind PV Capacity [kW] 2.4 8.1 System Design PV/Diesel 80% PV [kWh/a] 6794.9 14.5 14720.3 11.4 8.7 7.6 3.4 66.1 11323.9 System Design Wind/Diesel 80% Wind [kWh/a] 6794.0 6.2 8.2 4.3 7926.4 PV Capacity [kW] 7.4 Wind Capacity at 2000 h/a [kW] 4.3 7926.

Annex A: Electricity Demand and System Design 73 Total Number of Households 90 95 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 175 200 Diesel Capacity [kW] 5.6 10.0 6.8 8.8 .2 13.1 22647.8 31706.7 9.2 10.0 29441.3 23.3 26.9 16.1 21.6 7.1 17.5 24912.0 System Design PV/Diesel 80% PV [kWh/a] 20382.3 8.3 27177.1 14154.8 21515.7 15098.9 System Design PV/Wind PV Capacity [kW] 7.0 Wind Capacity at 2000 h/a [kW] 13.5 33971.4 13.2 14.5 24534.8 8964.1 11323.8 45.8 25.8 15.4 5.1 51.6 17929.2 17.4 13211.5 36.1 28309.7 32084.5 24912.2 22647.0 38500.5 25.0 13.7 14.3 36236.5 System Design Wind/Diesel 80% Wind [kWh/a] 20382.4 30196.8 39633.1 29.3 36236.0 9.0 29441.6 10.8 8.4 11.8 12267.2 11.9 20760.9 33.9 14.2 45295.3 12.1 22647.8 12.4 9.2 24.3%PV [kWh/a] 8492.6 37745.2 7.3 18872.6 19.8 21515.0 33027.3 16042.9 16.3 27177.8 31706.4 66.8 28.7 6.5 33971.9 Wind Capacity at 2000 h/a [kW] 11.9 19.3 30.5 12.8 33.4 20.1 38.4 17.2 45295.2 43.9 21.7 24.7 41.4 14.0 16513.8 39633.8 26422.4 18.6 9436.6% Wind [kWh/a] 16985.9 22.5 10380.0 PV Capacity [kW] 23.0 38500.8 18872.

5 18.6% Wind [kWh/a] 42464.0 64.4 70.1 66.5 15.7 67942.9 31.0 44.2 25950.9 26.6 PV Capacity [kW] 58.0 34.6 Wind Capacity at 2000 h/a [kW] 33.1 37.1 23591.7 67942.8 62280.3%PV [kWh/a] 21232.9 56618.6 56618.7 33.Annex A: Electricity Demand and System Design 74 Total Number of Households 225 250 275 300 Diesel Capacity [kW] 13.6 21.3 51900.5 37.2 .8 Wind Capacity at 2000 h/a [kW] 27.0 System Design PV/Diesel 80% PV [kWh/a] 50956.8 62280.0 16.1 47182.3 28309.9 77.9 56618.4 System Design PV/Wind PV Capacity [kW] 19.7 23.2 41.3 System Design Wind/Diesel 80% Wind [kWh/a] 50956.

Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations

75

Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations
B.1 Scenario Definitions
For the comparison of the different electrification scenarios, the main requirement for adequate comparison is that in all scenarios the same amount of electricity is provided. Here, a village with 170 households is chosen, with peak electricity consumption of 48,126 kWh/a, which is to be produced by the different scenarios. SHS, however, are seen as an exception here. SHS are just used for household electrification, and since real application is to be investigated, this is accounted for here. It is assumed that every household is supplied with a 50 Wp SHS-module each, generating 80 kWh/a at the given global irradiation, efficiency and energy density. For the assessment of the impacts of conventional grid-based electrification on ecology, three commonly used developing/transition countries are chosen: Brazil for its high share of hydro power plants on electricity supply; China for its high share coal power plants on electricity supply; and South Africa as an African representative and with comparatively high share of nuclear power.

The different electricity supply systems are chosen from the database of GEMIS. An overview on system designs and main assumptions is given in the following.
Scenario 1: Hybrid systems
PV Module PV/Diesel monocrystalline PVmodule, system with aluminium-frame incl. Elevation after DIN small-scale dieselmotor for decentral electricity production, no emission control (base case) 20 9,625.2 10.2 30 1,460 10 Own assumption Source: GEMIS; for the diesel generator, no emission control is applied as worst case scenario Wind Generator Diesel Remarks/Source

Description

Electricity Production [%] Electricity Production [kWh/a] Installed Capacity [kW] Efficiency [%] Annual Operating Hours [h/a] Lifetime [a]

80 38,500.8 43.8 10 1,664 20

Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations
PV Module PV/Wind monocrystalline PVsmall-scale single module, system mit wind turbine, for good aluminium-frame incl. sites Elevation after DIN 33.3 16,042 14.8 10 1,664 20 66.7 32,084 21.1 100 2,000 12 Own estimation Wind Generator Diesel

76
Remarks/Source

Description

Source: GEMIS

Electricity Production [%] Electricity Production [kWh/a] Installed Capacity [kW] Efficiency [%] Annual Operating Hours [h/a] Lifetime [a] Wind/Diesel

Description

small-scale dieselmoSmall-scale single tor for decentral elecwind turbine, for good tricity production, no emission control sites (base case) 80 38,500.8 25.3 100 2,000 12 20 9,625.2 10.2 30 1,460 10

Source: GEMIS; for the diesel generator, no emission control is applied as worst case scenario

Electricity Production [%] Electricity Production [kWh/a] Installed Capacity [kW] Efficiency [%] Annual Operating Hours [h/a] Lifetime [a]

Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations

77
Remarks/Source

Scenario 2: Diesel Mini-Grid
Diesel Mini-Grid

Description

small-scale dieselmotor for decentral electricity Source: GEMIS; no emission control as is production, no emission control (base case) common in developing countries

Electricity Production [kWh/a] Installed Capacity [kWp] Efficiency [%] Annual Operating Hours [h/a] Lifetime [a] 48,126

22 30 2,190 6 Own assumption

Scenario 3: Renewable Energy
Solar Home system Remarks/Source Biogas Plant Remarks/Source Small generator for biogas from decentral Source: GEMIS; fermentation for elecCatalytic Converter tricity generation in added; Converter developing countries, meets World Bank with three-way cataEmission and Imlytic-converter for remission Standards duction of NOx/CO/NMVOC 35,058.3 170 Buildings, each one SHS

Description

Complete 50 Wp Solar Home System, incl. battery & CFL bulbs, with 100% firm power due to battery storage

Source: GEMIS

Electricity Production [kWh/a] Installed Capacity [kWp] Efficiency [%] Annual Operating Hours [h/a] Lifetime [a]

13,600

8.5 10 1,600 20

10 27.74 4,813 10

Own estimation Source: GEMIS

Own estimation

sumed nuclear waste simple-cycle steaming tower.597.or in developing counintegrated biomass power plant Brazil tries. no cool.2 50 100 6.4 82.Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations 78 Hydroelectric Power Plant Scenario 4: Grid-Extension Coal Power Plant Brazil In Brazil: bagasse.000 50 2.1 577.994. in China China.000 20 250 100 4. injected gas turbine = STIG 8. includes asNOx. PWR) sized power plant with Large scale river countries. but gasification of wood.2 1.250 33 6.2 18.3 4.5 1.8 10 38.000 50 .903.000 20 39. electric filter.5 0.plant (pressurisedbine for developing water reactor.1 here neglected 600 38 6.213. no SO2.5 8.506 15 Description Nuclear power plant Coal-fired steamhydro-electric power (pressurised lightturbine power plant in plant . Large hard coal power Generic nuclear power Here dealt with as biomass: mediumplant with steam tur.6 Nuclear Power Plant Others Description Electricity Production [%] Electricity Production [kWh/a] Installed Capacity [MW] Efficiency [%] Annual Operating Hours [h/a] Lifetime [a] China 3.1 Electricity Production [%] Electricity Production [kWh/a] Installed Capacity [MW] Efficiency [%] Annual Operating Hours [h/a] Lifetime [a] 38. 80.000 30 2.98 3.117.dam + reservoir water reactor LWR) in China.removal.7 4.000 30 950 33 6.800. of 5 g/MWh-el.5 300 38 5.

South Africa. Nuclear Power Plant Hydroelectric Power Plant Others 79 Description Electricity Production [%] Electricity Production [kWh/a] Installed Capacity [MW] Efficiency [%] Annual Operating Hours [h/a] Lifetime [a] 93. includes moval.8 2. Greenhouse Gas Emissions The following table shows the amount of greenhouse gas emissions attributable to the different electrification scenarios.1 44. the amount of greenhouse gas emissions.reMW-netto.646.000 25 920 33 7.4 here neglected 500 38 5.or NOx.9 529.5 1. supplied with energy due to the different scenarios. bine in South Africa.2 Modelling Results The following section gives an overview and interpretation on the results of the GEMIS calculation for a village of 170 household.Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations Coal Power Plant South Africa Nuclear power plant Large hard coal power Koeberg close to Cape plant with steam turTown.561 50 B. With GEMIS. . PWR with 2x 920 no SO2.200 25 360 100 3.5 5.1 0. of 5 g/MWh-el.997. cooling tower assumed nuclear waste with wet recooling. CO2-Equivalents aggregate the different greenhouse gas emissions due to their contribution to the greenhouse effect. air pollutants and the cumulative energy demand (CED) were calculated.

165.43 13.533.32 0.65E-03 7.24 2.Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations 80 Table B.52E-07 1.73 11.11E-03 5.31 1.43 17.80 4.000 20.1 GEMIS Results: GHG Emissions The comparison of the different scenarios clearly shows that hybrid systems result in relatively few GHG emissions.51 10.36 46.56 29.945.80E-03 4. For Brazil.7% of hydropower for electricity generation.201.43 40.93 3.47E-07 8.27 42.38E-06 6. so that their GHG emissions are equal to those attributable to SHS and biogas.63 2.46E-06 3. PV/Wind hybrid systems do not apply fossil resources during operation.98E-06 8.637.35 Perfluormethane Perfluorethane [kg] [kg] 2.815.50 0.16E-06 2.37 34.31 2.969.35E-06 6.503.422.83E-07 4.000 0 PV/ Wind/ PV/ Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South China Diesel Diesel Wind Af rica Figure B.95 CH4 [kg] 27.27 3. the result . The comparison of hybrid systems with grid-based electrification shows expected results for South Africa and China.00 3.44E-07 1.38 0.52 553.710.071.1 Amount of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Option [kg] PV/ Diesel Wind/ Diesel PV/ Wind Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South Africa China CO2Equivalents [kg] 18.000 Greenhouse Gases [kg CO2-Equivalents] 50.53 54.879.568.677.000 10.09 1. 60.02 8.69 N2O [kg] 0.16 12.57 166.05E-08 1.340.11E-02 5.73E-07 7.23 234.63 CO2 [kg] 17.74E-07 These figures are illustrated by the following graphs. The comparison with diesel genset shows the expected result: the application of hybrid systems result in less GHG emissions due to the fact that the diesel generator accounts for just 80% of the electricity production. The comparison with renewable energy technologies shows a likewise expected result: diesel based hybrid systems result in more GHG emissions than do SHS and biogas plants due to the application of the diesel generator.75 54.887.04 6. which applies 82.38 56. which can be explained with the high share of coal in electricity production.707.53E-06 1.40E-07 1.000 40.593.000 30.50 0.10 1.

2 GEMIS Results: Methane Emissions CH4 emissions. . Secondly. the Brazilian grid results in similar GHG emissions as do PV/Diesel systems. SO2-Equivalents aggregate the different air pollutants due to their acidification potential.Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations 81 seems surprising in the first instance.2. This has two main reasons: Firstly. 600 Methance Emissions [kg] 500 400 300 200 100 0 PV/ Wind/ PV/ Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South China Diesel Diesel Wind Africa Figure B. although from their total amount fewer than CO2 emissions. the application of hydroelectric power plants results in a high degree of CH4 emissions as shows figure B. the diesel generator applied in the model here does not apply emission reduction measures as catalytic converters. have a comparatively high greenhouse potential and therefore significantly contribute to the aggregated CO2Equivalents. Air Pollutants The following tables show the amount of air pollutants attributable to the different electrification scenarios.

22 246.54 161.33E-06 2.56E-05 5.11E-06 2.67 47.01 0.78 27.88 12.21E-06 3.22 32.42E-10 1.38E-08 -1.24E-08 Option PV/ Diesel NH3 [kg] As [kg] Cd [kg] Cr [kg] Hg [kg] Ni [kg] Pb [kg] PCDD/F [kg] 1.08 0.00 155.83 799.13 35.89E-05 South Africa 8.55E-05 1.92E-08 6.46E-05 1.48E-06 -1.04E-05 1.30 222.05E-06 1.56E-05 4.53 116.02E-05 1.85 297.06 168.89E-05 4.53E-05 8.24E-04 1.01 2.22 -6.52E-04 PV/ Wind Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil 5.42E-05 6.03 3.89E-05 6.69E-05 9.33 1.28E-03 Wind/ Diesel 3.51E-08 1.79 395.35E-06 2.97 4.40 H2 S [kg] -1.2 Air Pollutants Option PV/ Diesel Wind/ Diesel PV/ Wind Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South Africa China 9.97E-05 1.32E-06 5.17E-04 3.07E-06 1.29 16.12 5.04E-05 5.30E-06 1.24E-08 1.06 186.76E-04 1.67E-05 1.04 40.36 197.25 HF [kg] 0.66 0.69 25.15E-09 -4.04E-04 3.35E-05 2.13E-08 1.71 1.01 21.86 215.66 18.50 0.17 1.71 NOx [kg] 169.61 4.02 0.03 Dust [kg] 44.77E-10 1.46E-10 1.62E-08 1.08 0.57E-04 China 5.00 0.49E-06 3.26E-07 -1.97E-05 2.86E-06 1.74E-05 6.22 0.18E-05 3.66E-07 These figures are illustrated with the following graphs.47E-05 4.74 0.94E-10 1.19E-09 4.00E-06 2.76 6.97E-04 8.44E-09 4.18E-05 1.20 77.08 0.39E-04 6.18E-07 3.87E-11 SO2Equivalent [kg] 172.15 0.91 0.31E-04 2.87E-06 1.07 1.14 3.64E-10 2.95 HCl [kg] 0.17E-12 8.12E-05 1.23E-05 1.27E-05 4.62 390.48 43.41 NMVOC [kg] 3.43E-05 1.76E-06 6.65E-08 2.85 0.03E-04 4.75E-09 6.45 52.56 14.33E-05 9.06 156.88 3.10E-06 3.73 SO2 [kg] 53.04E-07 7.03 CO [kg] 51.40 0.01 0.37 2.Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations 82 Table B.49E-10 2.86 4.89E-06 4.51 13.12 0.91E-06 2.73E-06 5.47 0.61 134.16E-05 4.04 772. .79E-04 8.10 1.

is lower. The comparison with SHS shows that diesel-based hybrid systems result in higher emissions of air pollutants.3 GEMIS Results: Air Pollutants lower than for diesel mini-grids. The high amount of air pollutants in the biogas system here results mainly from SO2 from sulphur in the fuel. In comparison with grid-based electrification. while the conventional grid emits mainly SO2 from coal combustion. For PV/Wind systems. the following figure is meant to provide an overview. Compared to diesel gensets.Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations 83 800 Air Pollutants [kg SO2-Equivalents] 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 PV/ Wind/ PV/ Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South China Diesel Diesel Wind Af rica The comparison of the different scenarios shows that hybrid systems are likely to result in few emissions of air pollutants. NOx. however. the amount of air pollutants in a country like Brazil. It illustrates that main pollutants in diesel systems are NOx. the higher the share of coal in electricity production and the worse the flue gas cleaning in these countries. again the expected result is obtained. dust and CO. applying a high share of hydroelectric power. the total amount is similar. Due to fewer operational time of the diesel generator in hybrid systems. . However. the amount of air pollutants is significantly Figure B. the better the comparative performance of hybrid system. For a better overview on the amount of the main air pollutants SO2. especially PV/Wind systems. reveals similar or less air pollutants from hybrid systems. The comparison with biogas systems.

0 60.0 38.8 13.6 129.7 64. Table B.085.600.537.799.2 129.681.0 12.4 Selected Air Pollutants Cumulative Energy Demand (CED) The Cumulative Energy Demand (CED) in kWh is a measure for the whole effort on energy resources (primary energy) for the provision of products or services.1 10. both during operation and for the construction of the power plant.9 19.040.742.6 68.3 56.602.1 109.645.4 350.0 118.975.0 58.032.370.078.2 14.3 Cumulative Energy Demand (Primary Energy) Option Total CED [kWh] 103.012.273.015.2 43.159.Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations 800 Selected Air Pollutants [kg] 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 PV/ Wind/ Diesel Diesel PV/ Wind Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South Africa China SO2 NOx Dust CO 84 Figure B.3 59.3 82.861.0 Others [kWh] 2.6 537.1 Renewable Resources [kWh] 39.0 210.4 123.1 180.4 45.353.053.46 It is therefore a measure to describe the extent to which renewable and non-renewable energy resources are consumed in order to provide electricity.369.4 Non-Renewable Resources [kWh] 62.6 8.705.4 54.3 0.717.945.747.6 48.3 39.2 1.3 209. The following table shows the results of the GEMIS calculations.6 958.3 PV/Diesel Wind/Diesel PV/Wind Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South Africa China These figures are illustrated with the following graphs. 46 Source: GEMIS .454.

being most important for this assessment here. this disadvantage might well be due to the fact that larger systems of higher installed capacity are applied to provide more energy than with SHS. hybrid systems applying diesel generators are disadvantageous.6 Cumulative Energy Demand According to Resources .5 Cumulative Energy Demand (Primary Energy) tion. In comparison to SHS. As is proved by figure B. the consumption of non-renewable resources. but also a significantly higher degree of non-renewable energy consumption. This idea is supported by figure B. This is to the higher energy demand for higher installed capacity in PV/Wind hybrid systems.Annex B: GEMIS Scenario Calculations 85 The investigation of 250.000 total cumulative energy demand 200. Just PV/Wind systems are able to compete with biogas and the grid of Brazil. 250.000 0 PV/ Wind/ PV/ Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South China Diesel Diesel Wind Africa Non-renew able Renew able Others CED [kWh] Figure B.000 CED [kWh] 200. is higher in these hybrid systems due to the use of the diesel generator. For the case of PV/Wind hybrid systems.000 50.000 the diesel mini-grid and to the conven0 tional grid in counPV/ Wind/ PV/ Diesel SHS Biogas Brazil South China tries with a high Diesel Diesel Wind Africa share of coal in electricity generaFigure B.000 shows that the ap150. hybrid systems are all disadvantageous. In comparison to Biogas and the conventional grid of Brazil with a high share of hydropower.000 150.000 100. which shows not only a higher degree of renewable energy consumption by PV/Wind systems than with SHS.6 as well.000 geous compared to 50.6 as well.000 plication of hybrid systems is advanta100.

The impact on noise pollution is therefore estimated to be negligible. but in reality this is not often the case and. for the single remote village discussed here the impact on noise pollution is estimated to be low due to the fact that electricity generation does not take place in the village itself. Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies The PV modules of SHS do not generate noise during operation and do not apply power distribution lines. by this resulting in a comparatively good assessment. Cushioning the noise of a diesel genset alone can as well be done by building a powerhouse. However. cannot be taken in consideration for the assessment here. larger gensets producing more noise. the generator produces noise not only through operation. For power distribution lines the same considerations apply as above. Due to this reason the impact of diesel gensets on noise pollution is evaluated to be comparatively very poor. but also due to start-up and shut-down procedures. the noise is distributed over these large distances as well. Therefore. which could create noise.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 86 Annex C: Analysis of Impacts C. Biogas plants for electrification create noise through the operation of the biogas-generator. Moreover. power distribution lines cause significant noise pollution by generating a constantly buzzing noise.1 Ecology Indicator: Noise Pollution Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets Diesel genset-based mini-grids are commonly operating the generator during evening hours. thus. However. which as well can be cushioned. . power distribution lines of the mini-grid further contribute to noise generation. affecting more villages than the discussed single remote one. the impact on noise pollution created by biogas-systems is estimated to be low. This clearly shows that this effect is not negligible. Just as for hybrid systems. Due to the fact that power transport to remote villages takes place over large distances with high and medium voltage lines. Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid The generation of electricity in centralised power plants does not result in noise in the remote villages. resulting in a comparatively good assessment. with longer operation time than in diesel-based hybrid systems. Since the load is not constant during these hours. which frequently occur. resulting in a comparatively very good evaluation. are necessary in order to provide the same amount of electricity as with hybrid systems. usually for the duration of several hours.

it is also reported that people are often dissatisfied with the unreliable and intermittent energy provision with diesel gensets (Prokahausli Sangsad Ltd. people are likely to have a high degree of confidence towards this technology. so that hybrid systems are likely to face less cultural obstacles than do SHS. SHS are assessed to perform comparatively poor with regard to cultural compatibility and acceptance.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 87 C. Biogas systems have been found to be the system probably facing most cultural obstacles. Most people in rural areas are familiar of the possibilities and benefits of gridbased electrification. if functioning well. Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies For SHS. can give to rural population. a preference towards these technologies can sometimes even be observed. 2000). no major obstacles resulting from cultural incompatibilities have been reported yet. The fact that energy provision is very limited and does not satisfy all needs and expectations. because they have relatives or friends in cities. However. Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid The extension of the conventional grid is usually the option being preferred the most by rural population.. The GTZ reports obstacles arising from religious and/or social taboos (GTZ. but also to the hard and tiring work connected to filling the tank of a generator.2 Socio-Economic Issues Indicator: Cultural Compatibility and Acceptance Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets Diesel gensets are one of the most common and well-known ways to address the problem of electrification of remote areas. diesel gensets are still likely to face hardly any cultural obstacles or problems with acceptance than hybrid systems due to their high degree of publicity. and are. 2003). Religious taboos are experienced to arise for example from the fact that cleanliness. in regions where renewable energies like photovoltaic and wind have already been applied.. the feeling of being electrified in second class manner. biogas systems are estimated to be in many cases significantly less compatible to cultural issues than hybrid systems. This is not only due to the high operational costs for diesel gensets. thus. which. All in all. is not seen as guaranteed in dealing with human and animal excrements. which is valued very high in some religions. In an overall result. This effect is likely to be stronger than in hybrid systems. 2000). can supply electricity for 24 hours. H. especially in winter (GTZ. Furthermore. the use of the produced gas for the preparation of food and the use of the slurry as fertiliser is sometimes hindered on cultural grounds. Especially the work connected to running a biogas system can be prohibited as well. Thus. Furthermore. resulting in a comparatively very good performance. However. Experiences show that only the advertisement of SHS as pre-electrification before being connected to the grid brings the necessary acceptance among rural population (Sauer. As a result. SHS suffer from the same problem of acceptance due to intermittent supply as do diesel gensets. but probably to a higher degree since SHS is a new technology being unknown to population. therefore performing comparatively very poor. Since word-of-mouth . open to solutions for this. who is well aware of possibilities of grid-based electrification. 1999a).

Project developers even describe experiences where rural population refused to be electrified with renewable energy technologies because of their fear that the conventional grid is then likely not to be extended to their region. 1996). SHS are independent from fuel and are not likely to become matter of political power demonstrations since they belong to the consumers themselves. Comparatively high investments make this technology more affordable to well-situated families. the degree of cultural compatibility and acceptance of grid extension is assessed to be comparatively very good. Cosgrove-Davies. SHS are significantly advantageous compared to hybrid systems and other decentralised electrification measures: because SHS provide electricity to individual households. the application of hybrid systems (and any other technology) has the potential to do so and to take account of matters of supply equity. However. June 28th. preferred to remain for a couple of years without electrification in order to preserve the chances for grid extension. this effect does not apply. A. Once constructed. that investment costs for SHS are comparatively high. Schaeffer. M. and electrification with diesel gensets has then usually not been implemented in an elaborated way.and middle-income rural families (Cabraal. Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies SHS offer a solution for electrification being largely independent from existing power structures. however.. The fact. Meanwhile. 1999b). thus. attenuates this effect. However. Indicator: Degree of Supply Equity Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets Diesel-based mini-grids often do already exist in developing countries. the same problem might apply as for hybrid systems that matters of political power or 47 Personal Comment given by Dirk-Uwe Sauer. nevertheless. 2003 . so that it is decided here to assess hybrid systems and diesel gensets as equally with regard to supply equity. The World Bank states that investment costs are in the order of magnitude of a year’s income for low. being independent from fossil resources. In this respect. Biogas systems generally seem to offer a good possibility for independent and fair power supply. the GTZ notes the possibility of a further accentuation of existing differences in income and property holdings (GTZ. SHS can be assessed to be more beneficial towards supply equity. since costs for hybrid systems are high as well. It is. From a financial perspective. diesel gensets are relatively expensive with regard to total costs. For a biogas plant on community level. and poor farmers are likely to be coerced to deliver their manure to the landlord or more prosperous farmers. at Intersolar fair. L. hybrid systems are even more expensive.. Fraunhofer ISE – Club for Rural Electrification. however. they can be considered as completely independent from power structures even within rural communities. the extension of the conventional grid to remote villages is considered as “real electrification” and will most likely be welcomed by rural population.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 88 propaganda is a common cultural habit in developing countries. either free of charge or at least cheaply. Nevertheless.47 For this reason..

where people are to understand the limited nature of energy in order to make electricity available to everybody to the same extent. resulting in a comparatively poor performance of grid extension in this respect. Ounalli. F. the potential for capacity building and increasing empowerment is higher for hybrid systems due to the fact that consumers in hybrid systems need to adapt to certain regulations. biogas plants are seen as preferential with regard to supply equity compared to hybrid systems. A. where electricity is simply not available during the day.J. The consumer should not only be directly involved in the planning processes.. et al. Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid It is a well-known fact that the conventional grid can become a matter of political power on a national level.. This is not the case with diesel gensets. however. et al. a general statement cannot be given. to some degree have the same problem as diesel gensets: if insolation (or diesel in the case of diesel gensets) is there. and therefore the effect on capacity building is here evaluated to be higher than for hybrid systems.. Still. Njaimi. but also needs to directly participate in the production of energy and the fertiliser. if not. This effect. it is decided here to assess hybrid systems as preferential to grid extension with regard to supply equity. From a financial perspective.D. N. due to lower costs for biogas systems. 1999). This does not result in the same effect on capacity building or social empowerment than with hybrid systems.. 2000). and the responsibility for this is left to the individual consumer.. Therefore. Biogas systems involve a lot of work to be done by the consumer himself. and that people adapt energy consumption to seasonal patterns with regard to insolation (Hammamami.. but to a lesser degree since back-up with a diesel genset weakens the effect. applies to hybrid systems as well. which make decentralised rural electrification highly advantageous with regard to supply equity. This shows the great potential this technology offers towards capacity building and empowerment. Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies Experiences with PV systems in general and SHS in particular show that the link between energy consumption and insolation is usually understood (Nieuwenhout. Indicator: Potential for Participation and Empowerment Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets Diesel gensets. The question whether or not to extend the conventional grid to certain rural areas is often a matter of political influence and preference as well. then no electricity can be used. the effect on capacity building of SHS is here evaluated to be lower. but only during some hours in the evening. SHS. However. Since grid extension to remote rural areas requires enormous investment. which cannot be run all day. Many developing countries have experienced demonstrations of political power on the issue of energy. by this offer potential for understanding of the limited nature of energy. . which is obviously due to natural limitations and fluctuations of renewable energy resources. resulting in a comparatively very good assessment.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 89 mismanagement of the electrification committee can result in unequal supply. electricity is available. M.

. and the costs for expanding capacity are considerably high (Cabraal. The following aspects are mentioned (Campen. Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies The potential for economic development of SHS has been matter of intensive research. Experiences show that rural population reverts to existing diesel gensets in the village for productive purposes or to the use of petroleum for further lighting (Preiser. The commonly installed capacities are not sufficient to be used for productive purposes by installing electrical machines. a biofertiliser.. F. D. M... et al. An extension of an existing system can be done by erecting new tanks and biogas generators if enough substrate is available and financial feasibility is given.. have been reported (GTZ. Best. resulting in the assessment of a comparatively very poor potential for participation and empowerment. resulting in a comparatively very poor potential of SHS for economic development. Guidi. An important constraint on the potential for economic development is the fact that diesel gensets are less suitable to be operated the whole day.. in some cases up to 20%. the potential for economic development with diesel gensets is estimated to be lower than with hybrid systems.J. B.. The potential for economic development of biogas systems depends on the size of the system and is therefore a matter of the pre-investment planning process.. Indicator: Potential for Economic Development Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets From a technical point of view. 1996). et al. The effect is therefore evaluated to be significantly lower than for hybrid systems. A. but there was just little evidence found for the potential of SHS to generate income (Nieuwenhout. When discussing the economic development potential. 2000).Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 90 Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid The extension of the conventional grid is not likely to improve understanding about the limited availability of electricity. The potential of SHS for economic development is therefore rated to be considerably lower than for hybrid systems. However. Energy is not generated on site to improve people’s understanding. Cosgrove-Davies. SHS were found to be a tourist attraction in Nepal. 2000). one should not ignore the fact of improved yields attributable to biogas systems. 2000b). As a result of the use of the by-product.. offering a high degree of flexibility for the villages with effectively no technical constraints to be made on the use of appliances (ESMAP. SHS services are limited.. which was mentioned as potential for income generation. L. K. 2000): lighting provides the possibility of extended commercial activities in the evening. Schaeffer. since operation costs are high. and energy supply is open to any kind of use with limitation just through pricing. diesel gensets are comparable to grid connection. G. 1999b). average increases of yields between 6 to 10%.D. Due to the latter fact.

it should not be overseen that for grid connection a minimum threshold level of electricity demand as well as certain load densities are essential in order to achieve economies of scale (Cabraal. This effect. who are the major competitor of SHS for lighting. L. as outlined above. are likely to result in further employment effects as well. These activities are mostly carried out by family members of the operator and are often neglected (GTZ. Since building material for biogas plants is less sophisticated than for example for photovoltaic modules. As for all energy technologies. the potential for economic development through biogas systems seems lower than with hybrid systems. employment effects by enhanced commercial activities during the evenings are likely to occur through SHS. Production. the impact of diesel gensets on overall employment is valued to be lower than with hybrid systems. In China it was experienced that every district applying biogas erected its own enterprises for the production of the individual parts of the biogas plant (GTZ.. service and maintenance of PV systems. the potential for economic development given by the conventional grid can be considered to be higher than for hybrid systems. 2003).. 1996). 2000). since it is limited by the availability of the substrate. For this reason. already the construction phase is likely to encourage local manufacturing of building materials and accessories.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 91 However. Generally. which are likely to experience a substantial load-growth after electrification. however. but not for electrification of machines for handicraft businesses..D. to sell their goods (Nieuwenhout. 1999b).J. Direct effects on employment related to operation and maintenance of diesel gensets can be evaluated to be low. However. the effect of enhanced economic activities is likely to occur. it is expected here that SHS are likely to result in lower employment effects than hybrid systems. while hybrid systems depend on the unlimited resources wind and/or sun. Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies As with diesel gensets. especially of those activities taking place in evenings since this is the time when diesel-based mini-grids likely operate. and related maintenance work is carried out – if at all . . Biogas systems provide potential for employment both in a long-term and short-term perspective. Cosgrove-Davies. the extension of the conventional grid normally offers a maximum degree of flexibility to accommodate increasing demand without supply constraints. F. the application of diesel gensets is not very labour intensive.. et al. M. A. Since SHS systems just provide potential for lighting.. is reduced by the fact that the application of SHS is likely to have negative influence on the possibility of kerosene dealers. Indicator: Employment Effects Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets The use of diesel gensets for electrification is likely to result in lower employment effects as in the case of hybrid systems. Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid For villages.by the operator or family members. Anyhow. The main restriction given is quite often the ability of the customers to pay for the energy service. Schaeffer. sales.

Besides the potential general impacts of electrification on human health. direct employment effects are likely not to occur. In comparison to hybrid systems. The fermentation process inside the tank significantly reduces the initial pathogenic capacity of the animal and human excrements. Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies During operation of SHS. The positive effect on human health is thus higher than with hybrid systems. Due to the fact that biogas systems are less sophisticated and that experiences proof immediate effects on employment due to their application. . further employment effects for operation and maintenance of the plants can be expected. diesel gensets generally can be applied as well. and biogas slurry does not attract important causes for contagious diseases as flies and other insects (GTZ. However. families have more time during the day to follow commercial activities as farming or animal husbandry. the likelihood to create job opportunities is here estimated to be higher than for hybrid systems. Commercial activities using electricity can take place at any time of the day. since skilled craftsmen are needed as permanent staff for the plant (GTZ. SHS are usually not designed to support appliances like refrigerators or even X-ray equipment. This positive effect can be reduced if kerosene lamps and candles are applied additionally in case lighting is not sufficient. Indicator: Impacts on Health Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets For the use of diesel gensets the same argument concerning corrosive gases applies as outlined for the hybrid systems. Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid The extension of the conventional grid is certainly the possibility offering the highest potential to create all such employment opportunities. the impact on improved human health is lower than with hybrid systems. The extension of the conventional grid hardly gives rise to job opportunities related to production. For the electrification of health clinics. and since household chores can be dealt with in the evenings due to lighting. and both are evaluated to have a comparatively good effect on employment opportunities. Electrification of rural health clinics with SHS is unlikely. 1999b). which can be attributed to electrification. but do not produce electricity in the same reliable and constant manner as do hybrid systems. For this reason the positive impact on human health is here considered to be lower than with hybrid systems. biogas systems have a special positive side effect by improving sanitary conditions for the plant owners or even the villages. Thus. handicraft enterprises get the opportunity to use as many appliances as they need and can finance. 1999b). This leads to the estimation that no preference is made towards one of these scenarios. the fact that grid-based electrification offers higher potential for commercial activities than hybrid systems is lowered by the lack of job opportunities related to the energy provision itself. no corrosive gases are emitted.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 92 When applying biogas systems on a community level. sales or maintenance of energy generating technologies.

F. the main problems of diesel gensets are rather the high operation costs and the overall low lifetime.. high amounts of i. J.10 – 1. Thus.5 Inner Mongolia (Byrne. Since flue gas cleaning in these power plants is usually not elaborated well.20 US$/W 5 – 20 Diesel 2. 1998) any (Kininger.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 93 Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid The extension of the conventional grid to remote areas does not result in emissions from the electricity generating process in the village itself. However.. is worsened in countries where for example the share of coal for electricity generation is high. This does not take place close to the remote villages and therefore does not result in immediate health problems.3 – 2. Shen.1: Initial Investment Costs for Diesel Gensets System Investment costs Capacity [kW] Location/Source Remarks 0. This positive assessment.45 – 0. 2000) Second hand generators of private service providers 0.e. C. Table C. it is decided here not to give a preference to grid extension or hybrid systems with regard to the impacts on human health and both are considered to have a comparatively good potential to improve human health situation.1. Wallace. CO or SO2 are emitted.29 €/W 5 (Wuppertal Institute.3 Economic Issues Indicator: Investment Costs per kW Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets Diesel gensets commonly require low initial investment.. Moreover. But after-effects as acid rain have severe impacts on human health. some data could be collected and is presented in Table C.. B. however. 2003) Bangladesh (Prokahausli Sangsad Ltd.33 US$/W 50 Bulitai (Inner Mongolia) (GTZ.. CO2. 2002) .57 US$/W 0. the conventional grid is undoubtedly able to support electricity demand from rural health clinics. 2002) 1. W.5 €/W 0.

the initial investment for diesel gensets is therefore significantly lower..0394 ×  [€/kW]. with 250 – 400 €/ m3 for the digester. Therefore. 2000). 1996). resulting in a comparatively good assessment of investment costs. L. the initial investment is as well significantly higher than for diesel gensets. M. et al. A recent Dutch study concluded that prices are typically in the range of 10 – 22 US$/Wp (Nieuwenhout. including all installations but not including land. Observed price reductions are stated to be related to decreases in taxes and duties rather than to a decrease of hardware costs. A. A. it can be stated that SHS can require significantly higher investments per Watt than hybrid systems. L. are estimated to be 50 – 75 US$ per m3 capacity in (GTZ. 1999b). Biogas plants usually require high investment as well. Total costs of biogas plants. the World Bank estimated in 1996 that prices for SHS are typically in the range of 7 – 26 US$/Wp (Cabraal. but also within countries. lower capacity utilisation rates.. and costs vary strongly between different plant types and sizes. For PV/Wind systems. which is not surprising with regard to the fact that PV/Diesel and Wind/Diesel systems apply diesel gensets as well.5 – 4 €/W as a reference point for specific investment costs. An appraisal in (ATB. Problems associated with grid extension in rural areas are lower load densities in rural areas. M.. can be constructed with a high share of user’s involvement. with the main share of the costs needed for the digester. costs for extension of the conventional grid vary widely not only among..J. F.000 US$ per kilometre (ESMAP. A reduction of up to 15% for labour wages can be achieved (GTZ.D. resulting in the assessment of comparatively very poor performance with regard to investment costs.16 €/W for a 20 kW diesel genset.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 94 The cost analysis here revealed specific investment costs for diesel gensets of P   345. meaning for example 0. investment cost for biogas plants can be evaluated to be lower than for hybrid systems. and can be up to 20. 1999b). Additional costs result from the application of the biogas generator. the construction of power distribution lines account for 80 to 90% of the overall investment. Schaeffer. could not be supported. Cosgrove-Davies. 2000b). According to the World Bank. biogas plants. Schaeffer. Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid As in all of the above cases. the extension of the conventional grid is just economically feasible. but are generally comparatively high: depending on the size of the module and the frame conditions of the respective countries. Cosgrove-Davies. however. The same study furthermore concluded that the prevailing view that costs for PV hardware are likely to decrease.48 Compared to the figures for hybrid systems. Therefore. Due to their simplicity. Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies The initial investment costs for SHS vary significantly from country to country.. For the evaluation.. if 48 P = Installed Capacity in kW .. and often higher energy losses (Cabraal.28 €/W in the case of a 5 kW kW   genset or 0. 2003) gives 2. 1996)..63 × exp − 0.

1998) Source A direct comparison of hybrid systems with diesel gensets. Table C. and: Baur.76-0. 49 Levelized costs based on field analysis of battery’s lifetime. L. Main determinant for the resulting connection cost is the average number of consumers per kilometre of line (ESMAP. From a perspective of the local consumer. and the efficiency of operation. For the case of a remote village.60 per kWh (ESMAP. 2003) (Byrne. a considerable number of households is to be connected to the grid. Wallace.20 to US$ 0. consumption per individual consumer. Cosgrove-Davies.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 95 - the village is situated close to the next medium-voltage line of the conventional grid. 2001). For the case of Inner Mongolia. J.2. 2002). The operational costs for diesel gensets are usually considerably high.16-1. number of consumers. A.. the experiences with diesel genset are presented in Table C. the connection cost to the grid is of major importance. Shen.3. This was done by Wuppertal Institute in (Wuppertal Institute. B. The World Bank estimates that costs for electricity generation with such systems typically range from US $0.2: Electricity Generating Costs for Diesel Gensets Diesel Genset (non-continuous service) 0.. with a median cost of about US$ 520 per connection. J.. .80 US$/kWh 1.. Indicator: Electricity Generating Costs Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets The costs for electricity generation with mini-grids based on diesel gensets vary depending mainly on the following factors (ESMAP. Schaeffer. 2000).27 US$/kWh49 Diesel Genset (continuous service) (GTZ. and is shown in Table C. 1996.. 2000b): size of the generator.56 US$/kWh 0. M. hybrid systems can be evaluated to be less costly than grid extension. should be performed on the basis of the same capacity installed and with the same electricity output. and a review of the World Bank in 1990 showed that these costs typically range from US$ 230-US$ 1. which is still lower than for hybrid systems.. however.. W. 2000b). and the distance between single households in the village is low (household density) (Cabraal.800 per connection.

Here.51 €/kWh 1.45 €/kWh 1.. ratio 4:1 Investment costs in € 11. diesel-based hybrid systems are likely not to be competitive. et al. thus lowering overall system costs. However. J. 1999). In countries where fuel is subsidised. F. Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies In case smaller loads are required. B. the aspect of costs for electricity generation cannot be seen independent from the fact that the production of bio-fertiliser and a correspondent observed increase of yields generates income (GTZ.67 –0..84 €/kWh 1. Nevertheless. this situation might be considerably different as the above example of Inner Mongolia proves.J. 1999a). PV/Wind household systems were experienced to be as low as 0. a general statement cannot be given for PV/Diesel and Wind/Diesel hybrid systems.450 23.37 US$/kWh (Byrne. Shen. et al.3 shows the high dependency on the fuel price. Experiences in Inner Mongolia reveal costs of 0. the electricity generating costs are approximately 1 US$/kWh (BMZ. Experiences of GTZ show that biogas programmes are usually less costly than similar strategies accounting both for energy and the production or use of fertilisers and being based on fossil resources (GTZ.70 €/kWh Electricity Generating Costs at Diesel Price of 1. Wallace. photovoltaic systems are likely to become the least cost option (Nieuwenhout.25 kWh of electricity on a sunny day. J. in the case of hybrid household systems. The comparison in Table C.J.20 . these costs are high and make the application of SHS difficult for electrification of the poorest. 2000).. Wallace.825 22. in the evaluation preference is given to diesel gensets due the data of the World Bank. delivering around 0. especially if 24-hours electrification is required. Shen. these hybrid systems can compete.59 €/kWh Comparing these figures for hybrid systems and diesel gensets. ratio 4:1 Wind/Diesel.. 2000). 1998). F.. However.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 96 Table C.740 Electricity Generating Costs at Diesel Price of 0. In any case. 1999b).. W. B. if no subsidies are provided by the respective countries. costs do not decrease with more households applying SHS.D.15 – 0. auxiliary energy sources as diesel gensets might be applied and generate additional costs (Nieuwenhout..5 € 1..75 € 1. For a common 50 Wp SHS..73 US$/kWh (Byrne. Generally. making the construction of mini-grids more attractive for villages with several households demanding electrification. For the application of biogas systems. 1998).. data based on experiences could not be obtained. However. W. An appraisal of the Wuppertal Institute results in electricity generating costs of 0.3: Hybrid Systems at Different Diesel Prices Capacity: 5 kW Electricity Output: 2190 kWh/a Diesel Genset PV/Diesel.D. Whether additional costs occur is matter of further use of appliances: since SHS have limited capacity and extension is comparatively expensive. the cost analysis of electricity generating costs reveals that SHS is likely to result in lower costs than hybrid village systems.

Schaeffer. M.J. 2000b). A. 2001). et al.. According to the World Bank. Cosgrove-Davies. Service centres are needed as well. then costs and tariffs can be relatively low. and they can even further decline with increasing consumption. which is available on rural markets (Prokahausli Sangsad Ltd. L. 2002). as the example of Bangladesh proofs (Barkat. 1996). Nevertheless. et al. not every PV user owns the required auxiliary means as for example a ladder for cleaning the PV array. has not to be taken for granted since costs for biogas plants vary strongly. M. Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies SHS can partly be maintained by users themselves. If this is the case. L. from a perspective of maintenance the application of hybrid systems seems to be less favourable than diesel gensets. especially simple maintenance functions as cleaning of the PV arrays can be carried out individually. Moreover. the additional requirement for the maintenance of the renewable energy generator and the other components as batteries and charge controllers give preference to the diesel genset. a rule of thumb from the Dominican Republic states that systems should not be installed more than 50 km away from the next service centre (Cabraal. Technicians are needed. resulting in considerable effort for cleaning (Nieuwenhout. grid extension offers the least costly option for electricity generation in cases where a medium voltage line serving a number of centres with larger loads passes the respective community nearby (ESMAP. as the World Bank describes.. again. A problematic experience with the education of technicians was observed in Indonesia in applying SHS: technicians who were educated within the context of the project left the villages . spare parts are difficult to purchase due to the remoteness of the villages (ESMAP. Cosgrove-Davies. operators often lack knowledge about these systems.. electricity generating costs are here valued to be significantly lower for grid extension than for hybrid systems. A.. Experiences also show severe problems with poor quality contaminated fuel... 2000a). Schaeffer.. F. In case of system breakdowns.. A common occurrence is that a doubling of consumption per household over a time frame of ten years leads in many places to a decline of costs per kWh of about 40% (ESMAP.D. 2002).. Still. 1996). L.. Cosgrove-Davies. Even though the technology itself has been known for years. but a single technician can serve maintenance needs for a large number of customers (Cabraal. 2000). As a conclusion it is decided here to value the performance of biogas systems with regard to electricity prices significantly better than for hybrid systems... However. 2000). 1996). A. M. just few households can carry out this maintenance by themselves over a long period of time (Cabraal. This. A.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 97 Euro/kWh for biogas plants (Wuppertal Institute.. Indicator: Maintenance Requirements Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets The application of diesel gensets in remotely located mini-grids has been facing long-standing maintenance problems. Schaeffer. Although the back-up diesel generator in hybrid systems is likely to be strained less than in the case of a diesel genset-based mini-grid. Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid A general statement on electricity generating costs from the conventional grid cannot be given since costs vary strongly between different countries and grid characteristics..

making the performance of diesel gensets comparatively poor with regard to this indicator. GTZ.. India. a return to normal levels takes up to 10 days (GTZ. .50 For this reason. Diesel gensets are also heavily dependent on the import of fuel. Regular charging with substrate is essential. K. Indicator: Degree of Import Dependence and Regional Self-Supply Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets Diesel gensets can usually be only produced in larger countries as China. If once the production of biogas is reduced. Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid System breakdowns and shortages in power supply are likely to occur due to often unreliable conventional grids in developing countries. in Eschborn/Germany on August 14th. Maintenance of the conventional grid is to be carried out by a central public or private utility. the result of decreasing gas production is observed with significant time lag. the cause of problems related to the micro-organisms inside the tank cannot be identified by users themselves. which can be a problem especially in tropic countries where climate dictates agricultural activities.51 and therefore hybrid systems are evaluated to be less problematic from a point of view of maintenance. resulting in comparatively very poor performance of biogas plants with regard to maintenance. especially in African countries. resulting in longer periods of shortages. 2003.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 98 and searched for better paid jobs in cities (Preiser. Because in the case of decentralised electrification with hybrid systems. which usually have a pool of experts or technicians for this purpose. 1999a). the relatively higher complexity of hybrid systems compared to SHS makes the application of SHS advantageous from the point of view of maintenance. 2000). 50 51 Personal Comment given by Jörg Baur. Thus. very often it is just old motors from cars. but taking into account the current non-existence. Biogas systems require regular attendance and maintenance. in Eschborn/Germany on August 14th.. which are taken for electrification. It is therefore likely that due to the remoteness of the here considered villages. local technicians need to be trained and maintenance centres need to be erected. the conventional grid is assessed to perform comparatively good with regard to maintenance. etc. Therefore. the comparative assessment results in a preference for grid extension. Although the problem of batteries and charge controllers applies to SHS as well. but requires help from experts even in developed countries. GTZ. maintenance will be carried out slowly. 2003. where fuel consumption is reduced to roughly 20% of the figures for diesel-based mini-grids. et al. Maintenance usually cannot be carried out by the customers themselves or local technicians. the result is then a slight preference for hybrid systems. experts from GTZ have experienced maintenance as a major issue with biogas plants. This dependency is of course much higher than for hybrid systems. This lead to a lack of maintenance and undermined the whole effort for setting up a maintenance structure. Moreover. Personal Comment given by Jörg Baur. but in case it is forgotten. Assuming that markets for renewable energy technologies are likely to develop.

the degree of supply security is here estimated to be lower than with hybrid due to the following aspects: as already described. the experience shows that due to the uncomplex nature of the systems. since it was experienced and is assumed here that markets for PV are likely to develop. 1999a).. the lifetime of a conventional diesel genset is about 4 years and can become as low as 1. This is due to the fact that the degree of regional self-supply is higher for decentralised electrification solutions than with the conventional grid. L. A. Thus. the degree of import dependency is difficult to assess for developing countries in general. 2000). The degree of import independence is here evaluated to be lower than for hybrid systems. the gensets usually operate 4-12 hours in the evenings (Cabraal.. Indicator: Supply Security Scenario 2: Diesel Gensets Electricity provision with diesel-based mini-grids is limited. the result of this assessment is the same due to the fact that markets both for PV and for wind generators need to be developed before local production becomes reasonable. diesel gensets provide limited energy supply . For the application of SHS in developing countries. which are dependent on fuel imports to a large extent. Furthermore. Cosgrove-Davies. resulting in a comparatively very good assessment of biogas plants with regard to this indicator. 1996). Countries as Brazil. this is not taken in consideration. 1996). Schaeffer. ingredients for the operation of the plants are locally available. Firstly.. However. generating a high share of its electricity with hydropower.. M.. The additional effect of the production of bio-fertiliser can even lower the need for import of mineral fertilisers. The degree of import independence and regional self-supply is therefore rated to be significantly higher with biogas systems compared to hybrid systems. the comparative assessment reveals a poor performance of grid extension with regard to this indicator. Biogas systems provide a comparatively high potential for independence in electricity generation. Although diesel gensets offer a proven and reliable technology for rural electrification. obviously are less dependent on energy import than the major part of the developing countries.. M. local production of needed materials and components and respective markets can rather easily be developed. Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid On a country level. resulting in a comparatively good performance of SHS with regard to this indicator. Schaeffer. Therefore preference is given to SHS with regard to import dependency since hybrid systems applying diesel gensets normally still rely on diesel imports. Cosgrove-Davies.. For the case of PV/Wind systems. L. This effect was evaluated to be in the range of 30-35% by Indian experts (GTZ. the World Bank in 1996 stated high transaction costs in purchase and servicing for SHS due to limited market structures (Cabraal.5 years (Prokahausli Sangsad Ltd.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 99 Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies SHS offer to a large extent the possibility of independence from the import of fossil resources as oil or coal. A.

However. F. with breakdowns in generating equipment or distribution systems and leading to intermittent availability of electricity (ESMAP. maintenance or repair is likely to take a long time. For biogas plants no information on the reliability of the systems could be obtained.J.. Scenario 3: Renewable Energy Technologies Security supply with SHS is certainly to be estimated as lower than with hybrid systems. SHS are seen as average with regard to supply security. being average in the comparative assessment here. in many regions in developing countries the quality of grid supply is rather low. It is therefore assessed that biogas systems offer a lower degree of security on energy supply.D. 1999a). 2000). diesel gensets are valued as average with regard to supply security. lies in the fact that once the system is down. 2000b). in cases of system breakdowns no back-up with other energy sources can stabilise electricity generation if no diesel genset is available. a recent survey estimates that roughly three-quarters of the SHS systems operate relatively well (Nieuwenhout. and with system breakdowns without electricity supply during longer periods of unfavourable weather conditions. et al. However. Scenario 4: Extension of the Conventional Grid From the extension of the conventional grid one can usually expect a reliable full-time coverage of electricity demand. The same study also reveals that larger SHS systems are working more reliable since deep discharge of batteries occurs less frequently in larger systems (Nieuwenhout. 2000). For the comparative assessment here. limiting electricity provision to just several hours during the day.Annex C: Analysis of Impacts 100 - in case of breakdowns. being average in the comparative assessment here.. others report 100% failures. On the other hand. as was mentioned in the context of maintenance requirements already.. F. Information concerning reliability of SHS is very limited and does not give a consistent picture. The reason for this is on the one hand non-continuous energy provision. Moreover. it has to be considered that markets and maintenance structures for renewable energy have not yet emerged in most developing countries. the reactivation can take several days and needs the involvement of experts in case problems with the tank occur. This certainly reduces the otherwise significant advantage of hybrid systems compared to grid extension concerning supply security and results in an evaluation of just better performance. . While some projects report all SHS systems as being operative. the problem of biogas plants. 2000b).J. no electricity can be generated at all For the comparative assessment here.D. et al.. It can generally be stated that biogas plants nowadays are a mature technology (Biogas. reductions and fluctuations in voltage can become so severe that the use of appliances is connected with the risk of damages for the customer (ESMAP. no alternative energy source is available in case of shortages of fuel. However. On the other hand. implying that in case of breakdowns.

Geis. Cables. Wind generator 12 years. Assembly and Commissioning: 15% of total investment Transport: 1. ..0394 ×   Own calculation based on available cost data Investment   P   in [€/kW] kW  Schüco 54 Battery bank: 333 €/kWh for a 12V.000 € Cabinet. 2003).63 × exp − 0.000 € Operating Costs Manpower. Bopp. Tower) For Plants ≤ 10kW: Costs = 4309 × exp − 0. Internal Wiring: 6.5kW: 5. the following basic assumptions were made. 54 Personal Comment given by Mr. Maintenance and Repair: Annually 4% of total investment Cost data SMA KfW55 Schueco56 Own estimation GTZ57 Own assumption For PV and Wind: (Sauer. 2003. 500Ah battery. Battery 5 years. 2003.007 × Diesel Genset: Costs = 345. former KfW staff member. 4. H. during a telephonme interview on August. Körner during a telephone interview on August 18th.1 Main Assumptions for the Cost Analysis Type of Costs PV Modules 400 €/kWp Wind Power Plants (incl. others: own assumption Interest Rate: 6% Miscellaneous Lifetime system components: PV modules 20 years. in Eschborn/Germany. Körner during a telephone interview on August 18th. D. Inverter and Charge Controller 10 years 52 Personal Comment given by Mr. 53 P = Installed capacity in kW.000 € Planning.Annex D: Cost Analysis 101 Annex D: Cost Analysis For the cost analysis. 2003. 22nd. 56 Personal Comment given by Mr. Support: 2. Diesel Genset 10 years. Table D. G. 55 Personal Recommendation given by Mr. Puls. 57 Personal Comment given by Jörg Baur. 2003. Körner during a telephone interview on August 18th.7 × exp − 0.. 2003. on August 14th. GTZ..000 € Local grid. the batteries are designed for a storage capacity of 2 days Inverter and Charge Controller “Sunny Island”.1068 × Costs/Details Source Schüco52   P  53  in [€/kW] kW  P   in [€/kW] kW  For Plants ≥ 10 kW: Costs = 2016.

2003.069.762.38 Source (Diesel.499.0 17.9 Total Investment Costs [€] 629.67 5.165.08 1.24 10.68 2.84 1.80 29.751.5 2.0 6. Twele during a telephone interview on September.599.999.600.998.0 8.0 3.0 3.0 20.970.471.8 2.742.954.310.80 6.51 1.Annex D: Cost Analysis 102 The investment costs for wind power plants and diesel gensets are based on the costs for different plants from various manufacturers.75 1.0 1.0 60.970.44 78.381.00 1.80 6.39 Specific Investment Costs [€/kW] 349.725.60 Including 19 m tower Inventus Windpower GmbH Including 11 m tower (Heyde.2 Investment Costs for Small-Scale Wind Power Plants Name Capacity Total Investment Specific Investment Costs [€] Costs [€/kW] [kW] 0.294.3 Investment Costs for Diesel Gensets Diesel Generator Mitsubishi MGE-1800 ROU Mitsubishi MGE-2900 ROU Capacity [kW] 1.00 2.90 862.40 3.08 19.8 1.17 1. 2003) Including 11 m tower Bundesverband 58 Windenergie Including 18m tower Including 27m tower Including 30m tower Including 40m tower Bundesverband 59 Windenergie Table D.00 60.022.420.40 2. The details are shown in the following tables.680.509. Twele during a telephone interview on September. 59 Personal Comment given by Mr.68 4. 2003)60 58 Personal Comment given by Mr.48 3.0 10. 2003) Remarks Source INCLIN 600 AC 752 turbo MAJA 1000 INCLIN 1500 neo GRT 2000 INCLIN 3000 neo INCLIN 6000 neo Inventus 6 GRT 8000 AIRMAXX-10 Novatec ML10Eco Vergnet GEV10/20 Fuhrländer FL30 Vergnet GEV15/60 Lagerwej LW18 6. .00 89.324.6 0.980. 1st.40 2.20 3.68 1.00 9.94 297.199.802.490.0 10.60 5. Table D.97 3.0 80.117.40 17.981.17 (Heyde. 2003.373.0 30. 1st.

2003).000 1. 2003). 2003)61 The decline in specific investment cost per kW is reflected in the following graphs.000 1.6 12 Total Investment Costs [€] 1.007 ×  in [€/kW] kW   Installed Capacity [kW] P  Costs = 345.000 3.693.431. Calculated Exchange Rate: 1 US$ = 0.116.00 300.Annex D: Cost Analysis 103 Diesel Generator Yamaha EF4000DE Yamaha YG4000D Yamaha EF5200DE Yamaha EF6600DE Yamaha EF12000DE Capacity [kW] 4 4 5.91 1.500 2.20 2.63 × exp − 0.2 6.51 Specific Investment Costs [€/kW] 310.000 2.000 500 0 0 50 100 Installed Capacity [kW] P   Costs = 4309 × exp − 0.90114 € (September 8th.7 × exp − 0.90114 € (September 8th.000 0 0 5 10 15 Installed Capacity [kW] Specific Investm ent for Plants =>10kW Specific Investment [€/kW] 2.00 100.67 1.51 1.0394 × kW    in [€/kW]  Figure D.1 Specific Investment for Wind Power Plants and Diesel Gensets 60 61 Calculated Exchange Rate: 1 US$ = 0.1068 ×  in [€/kW] kW   Specific Investm ent for Diesel Gensets Specific Investment [€/kW] 400.00 200.000 5.09 224. .000 4.67 279.46 Source (Diesel. Specific Investm ent for Plants <=10kW Specific Investment [€kW] 6.37 251.00 0.500 1.242.00 0 5 10 15 P   Costs = 2016.13 275.657.

still being relatively poor.0037 ×  in [€/kW] Costs = 11061 × exp − 0.6659 in the case of smaller plants and R2 = 0.000 6.600 8. it was distinguished between plants of smaller capacity ≤ 10 kW and plants of higher capacity ≥ 10 kW in order to improve the accuracy of regression. the analysis of investment and electricity generating costs was performed.5 × exp − 0.8422.000 7. Here.000 10. With this data.800 8.000 10.200 9.000 7.400 8.200 8.0027 ×  in [€/kW] kW  kW    Figure D. this leads to the following range of investment costs. Investment Costs [€/kW] .0009 ×  in [€/kW]  in [€/kW] Costs = 9564.0034 × kW  kW    PV/Wind at 1 Day Battery 10.000 8. Regression coefficients of R2 = 0. this is not the case for wind power plants.000 9.7 × exp − 0.2 Specific Investment for Hybrid Systems of Different Capacities For the different village sizes as presented in Annex A.7163 for bigger plants were obtained.000 8.000 0 20 40 60 80 Installed Capacity [kW] PV/Wind at 2 Days Battery 14.1 × exp − 0.000 12. PV/Diesel 9.Annex D: Cost Analysis 104 While the regression is rather fair in the case of diesel gensets with a regression coefficient of R2 = 0.000 9.000 6. D.1 Investment Costs The analysis investment costs revealed the following results.400 9.000 8.000 6.000 0 20 40 60 80 Installed Capacity [kW] Investment Costs [€/kW] P  P    Costs = 8241.000 8.000 0 50 100 150 11.000 0 20 40 60 80 Wind/Diesel Investment Costs [€/kW] Investment Costs [€/kW] Installed Capacity [kW] Installed Capacity [kW] P  P    Costs = 8880.

00 9. With the help of the underlying assumptions as presented on page 101.86 D.2 Electricity Generating Costs The electricity generating costs per kWh were calculated with the help of the annuity method. repair and diesel fuel. Division of the annual costs by the annual electricity production leads to the specific electricity generating costs per kWh.18 Investment Costs at 300 Households [€/W] 8. maintenance. the following formula was used to calculate the annuity of the investment costs of single components: a = C0 × (1 + i )n − 1 i × (1 + i ) n With a i = Annuity = Interest Rate = 6% C0 = Capital Value n = Component Lifetime The total annuity of investment is then the sum of the single annuities. For the different systems and varying diesel fuel prices. the following results were obtained: .44 12.05 9.20 10.67 6. the total annual costs can be calculated.Annex D: Cost Analysis 105 Table D.4 Range of Investment Costs for Hybrid Systems System PV/Diesel Systems Wind/Diesel Systems PV/Wind Systems at 2 days battery capacity PV/Wind Systems at 1 day battery capacity Investment Costs at 30 Households [€/W] 9.23 8. By adding the annuities of operation costs for manpower.

48 1.53 1.47 1.44 0.68 1.47 1.54 1.49 1.44 1.43 1.49 1.71 1.56 1.47 1.46 1.46 1.51 1.45 1.59 0.65 .2 1.48 1.51 1.54 1.47 1.45 1.45 1.48 1.48 1.46 1.3 1.55 1.49 1.50 1.44 1.44 1.46 1.47 1.55 1.52 1.47 1.64 1.44 1.5 1.47 1.5 Electricity Generating Costs of PV/Diesel Systems [€/kWh] Number of Households 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 175 200 225 250 275 300 Diesel Fuel Price [€/l] 0.49 1.50 1.52 1.45 1.66 1.50 1.45 1.49 1.47 1.46 1.45 1.43 1.69 1.45 1.47 1.47 1.49 1.54 1.44 1.47 1.50 1.70 1.49 1.50 1.73 1.46 0.47 1.43 1.46 1.47 1.7 1.48 1.53 1.43 1.47 1.53 1.42 1.43 0.50 1.52 1.51 1.52 1.48 1.55 1.48 1.42 1.45 1.6 1.50 1.1 1.44 1.46 1.48 1.53 1.53 1.43 1.43 1.48 1.53 1.4 1.48 1.55 1.51 1.44 1.47 1.43 1.48 1.45 1.47 1.42 1.43 0.46 1.48 1.57 1.53 1.45 1.50 1.43 1.49 1.50 1.3 1.69 1.48 1.50 1.45 0.51 1.45 1.47 1.51 1.45 1.51 1.44 1.48 1.45 1.60 0.52 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.47 1.71 1.68 1.52 1.42 0.49 1.45 1.48 1.50 1.73 1.48 1.43 1.46 1.44 1.49 1.9 1.50 1.49 1.48 1.46 1.46 1.47 1.49 1.67 1.47 1.46 1.6 Electricity Generating Costs of Wind/Diesel Systems [€/kWh] Number of Households 30 35 40 Diesel Fuel Price [€/l] 0.53 1.52 1.70 1.50 1.49 1.44 1.51 1.47 1.47 1.47 1.47 1.49 1.48 1.51 1.70 1.44 1.48 1.47 1.51 1.51 1.8 1.48 1.52 1.46 1.48 1.44 1.46 1.67 1.54 1.2 1.56 1.47 1.48 1.72 1.47 1.46 1.47 1.6 1.43 1.46 1.44 1.45 1.63 0.49 1.48 1.49 1.49 1.45 1.45 1.49 1.48 1.45 1.45 1.47 1.45 1.52 1.58 1.48 1.52 1.50 1.53 1.45 1.50 1.49 1.62 0.47 1.69 1.48 1.49 1.51 1.48 1.47 1.46 1.66 1.50 1.44 1.46 1.5 1.51 1.52 1.1 1.47 1.46 1.51 1.49 1.61 0.51 1.47 1 1.48 1.44 1.45 0.56 1.46 1.49 1.47 1.48 1.48 Table D.63 0.51 1.50 1.54 1.47 0.43 1.48 1.46 1.55 1.43 1.47 1.45 1.49 1.52 1.51 1.68 1.50 1.46 1.46 1.52 1.49 1.Annex D: Cost Analysis 106 Table D.49 1.65 1.50 1.8 1.65 1 1.64 0.54 1.4 1.48 1.61 0.46 1.45 1.43 1.49 1.46 1.46 1.7 1.49 1.45 1.45 1.53 1.52 1.50 1.51 1.44 1.47 1.50 1.44 1.50 1.46 1.44 1.49 1.51 1.53 1.48 1.53 1.48 1.9 1.42 1.50 1.

51 1.52 1.51 1.55 1.51 1.41 1.53 1.4 1.59 1.55 1.51 1.45 1.52 1.44 1.49 1.46 1.49 1.53 1.46 1.48 1.45 1.51 1.45 1.47 1.59 1.47 1.52 1.50 1.47 1.46 1.48 1.50 1.53 1.48 1.58 1.52 1.41 1.46 1.53 1.50 1.43 1.56 1.46 1.48 1.51 1.60 1.47 1.51 1.51 1.50 1.48 1.51 1.43 1.46 1.49 1.48 1.54 1.46 1.50 1.56 1.46 1.51 1.55 1.50 1.49 1.52 1.59 1.44 1.48 1.43 1.54 1.44 1.56 1.6 1.43 1.51 1.55 1.55 1.44 1.47 1.57 1.49 1.40 0.42 0.57 1.52 1.46 1.53 1.48 1.47 1.48 1.45 1.58 1.45 1.51 1.50 1.41 0.52 1.42 1.50 1.43 0.47 1.45 1.8 1.44 0.53 1.51 1.43 1.44 1.53 1.47 1.45 1.49 1.47 1.5 1.51 1.45 1.44 1.3 1.48 1.41 1.50 1.55 1.48 1.63 1.45 1.49 1.51 1.44 1.54 1.51 1.48 1.48 1.44 0.53 1.40 1.45 1.46 1.47 1.48 1.52 1.47 1.50 1.55 1.42 0.53 1.57 1.59 1.45 1 1.54 1.52 1.51 1.46 1.47 1.47 1.2 1.45 1.44 1.50 1.53 1.49 1.44 1.58 1.43 1.50 1.48 1.42 1.48 1.56 1.44 1.49 1.53 1.42 1.49 1.54 1.54 1.49 1.54 1.53 1.53 1.50 1.45 1.49 1.52 1.48 1.41 1.48 1.47 1.54 1.45 1.49 1.1 1.52 1.44 1.42 1.51 1.50 1.55 1.57 1.44 1.46 1.50 1.43 1.47 1.40 0.46 1.56 1.49 1.49 1.60 1.48 1.50 1.49 1.48 1.46 These figures can be illustrated with the graphs on the following page.52 1.61 1.61 1.53 1.52 1.50 1.53 1.55 1.52 1.49 1.9 1.48 1.54 1.51 1.50 1.50 1.7 1.48 1.52 1.43 1.56 1.47 1. .53 1.42 1.46 1.47 1.62 1.46 1.45 1.50 1.49 1.46 1.48 1.49 1.Annex D: Cost Analysis 107 Number of Households 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 175 200 225 250 275 300 Diesel Fuel Price [€/l] 0.46 1.50 1.46 1.61 1.51 1.47 1.56 1.49 1.49 1.51 1.

60 1.45 108 Figure D..40 1.45 1.60 1.60 1.Annex D: Cost Analysis 1. et al.1 300 1 Diesel Costs [€/l] 1.35 1.40 1. The buckling in the curve progression is a result of the different equations used for small and big wind generators.40-1. meanwhile.55 1. PV/Diesel systems.50 Figure D.70 1.3 Illustration of Electricity Generating Costs for PV/Diesel 1.55-1. where costs decline over the whole area of investigation due to the decrease in specific investment costs for wind power plants with higher capacities. D. This is due to the fact that the decline in investment costs of diesel gensets at certain installed capacities does not trade off the high investment for the PV modules anymore..50 1. This effect is stronger in the case of Wind/Diesel systems. seem to reach a threshold value at all diesel fuel prices.20 30 45 60 110 140 170 225 Num ber of Households 75 90 0.60 Electricity Costs [€/kWh] 1.70-1.4 Illustration of Electricity Generating Costs for Wind/Diesel The cost analysis of hybrid systems here reveals that electricity generating costs are decreasing with higher loads and lower diesel fuel prices.1 300 1 Diesel Price [€/l] 1.30 30 45 60 110 140 170 225 Num ber of Households 75 90 0.45-1.55 1. where it is calculated that electricity generating costs are .50 1.50-1.50 1.70 1.50-1.40-1.80 1. This observation is supported by the investigations of the Fraunhofer Institute in (Sauer.60-1. 1999). which they are likely not to fall below.80 Electricity Costs [€/kWh] 1.30 1.

00 1.73 1.09 1.54 1.54 1.03 1.03 1.56 1.63 1.56 1.58 1.56 1.22 1.04 1.Annex D: Cost Analysis 109 likely not to become lower than 1.57 1.55 1. For PV/Wind systems.12 1.58 1.66 1.03 Euro/kWh for systems with lower annual consumption of 15.53 1.02 1.05 1.64 1.00 1.59 1.52 1.01 1.01 1.54 1.10 1.55 1.04 1.58 1.15 1. the following results were obtained with regard to electricity generating costs per kWh: Table D.01 1.58 1.52 1 Day 1.57 1.69 1.62 1.03 1.53 1.56 1.54 1.03 1.98 0.01 1.76 1.7 Electricity Generating Costs PV/Wind Number of Households 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 175 200 225 250 275 300 PV/Wind Systems with Battery Capacity for 2 Days 1.02 1.07 1.18 1.000 kWh and at an interest rate of 6%.99 0.99 0.00 0.98 .98 0.

the circumstances are just moderately suited for fully renewable coverage of electricity demand. Fraunhofer Institut für Solare Energiesysteme ISE in (Sauer. transport and construction for Kassel/Germany.0 % 37.Annex D: Cost Analysis 110 The analysis of PV/Wind systems shows the high dependency of electricity generating costs from the size of the battery bank.30 Euro/l 6% 350 Euro/d . 1.. 1999) PV/Diesel hybrid system for Mexico City. These costs increase for remote regions.6 kW 96. 11. et al.9 kWp 6. D.34 Euro/kWh.0 kWh 6.000 kWh/a 77% 0.6 kWh 1. Assumptions o Electricity Consumption: o Capacity PV Modules: o Capacity Diesel Genset: o Battery Bank: o Inverter: o Energy Management System applied o Global radiation in Sevilla/Spain: o Diesel Costs: o Interest rate: o Labour Costs: 2.000 full load hours for wind generators. Assumptions o Electricity Consumption: o Solar Coverage Rate: o Diesel Fuel Price: o Interest Rate: o Labour Costs: 2..00 Euro/l 5.3 Electricity Generating Costs from Different Sources Institut für Solare Energieversorgungstechnik (ISET) in (Kininger.752 kWh/m2/a 1..664 kWh/m2/a and under the assumption of 2.76 Euro kWh. 1. Result 50 kWh/d 9. For the chosen location of Trapani/Italy with annual global radiation of 1. 2002) PV/Diesel hybrid system for Sevilla/Spain with costs on planning. F.5 Euro/h Electricity generating costs of 0. Result o Electricity generating costs of 1. D.

J. Inner Mongolia System specification PV-Battery-Inverter System (100 W) Wind-Battery-Inverter System (300 W) Wind-PV-Battery-Inverter System (300 + 100 W) Investment costs [RMB] 6. with large hybrid systems being less expensive.72 US$/kWh.150 kWh/m2/a 150 W/m2 300 W 100 W 0. Gesellschaft für technische Zusammenarbeit GTZ. Wallace. Shen.85 US$/kWh Wind/Diesel Village System 0.720 Operating costs/year [RMB/a] 100 119 119 Table D. Result 1. B. in (GTZ. Assumptions o Global radiation: o Wind Energy Density: o Capacity Wind: o Capacity PV: o Diesel Fuel Price: o Interest Rate: 2. 2003) Application of PV/Diesel and Wind/Diesel hybrid systems for village electrification. 1. Electricity Generating Costs: 0.82 US$/l 12% Levelised costs based on field analysis of battery’s lifetime.. Results Table D. Costs are related to the size of the system.37 US$/kWh .9 Electricity Generating Costs of Hybrid Systems in Inner Mongolia PV/Diesel Village System 1. W. 100 W PV) for household electrification..43 US$/kWh – 0. 1998) PV/Wind Household hybrid systems for Inner Mongolia.8 Investment and Operating Costs of Different Household Systems. PV/Wind hybrid systems (300 W Wind. China.087 11.837 6..75 US$/kWh PV/Wind Household System 0.Annex D: Cost Analysis 111 National Renewable Energy Laboratory(NREL)/University of Delaware in (Byrne.

45 €/kWh 1. ratio 80:20 Investment costs in € 11. ratio 80:20 Wind/Diesel.10 5 kW Hybrid Systems at Different Diesel Prices Capacity: 5 kW Electricity Output: 2.190 kWh/a Diesel Genset PV/Diesel.75 € 1.70 €/kWh Electricity Generating Costs at Diesel Price of 1.Annex D: Cost Analysis 112 Wuppertal Institute in (Wuppertal Institute.825 22.740 Electricity Generating Costs at Diesel Price of 0. 2002) Table D.5 € 1.84 €/kWh 1.450 23.59 €/kWh .51 €/kWh 1.

th 16 European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference.html. 2003: Energy as an Instrument for Socio-Economic Development. D. DomDom.ise. Berlin/Germany... J.org/html/fpd/esmap/publication/255-02phil. Energy Policy.org/infrastructure/infrastructure. W. 2003.pdf. Shen. 1996: Best Practices for Photovoltaic Household Electrification Programs – Lessons from Experiences in Selected Countries. 2002: Rural Electrification and Development in the Philippines: Measuring the Social and Economic Benefits. Baur. Schaeffer. M. 1999: Materials No. Barkat. A. 2003: Akteure.htm... in: http://www.26(1). 1998. Washington.pdf. Human Development Research Centre.. UNDP. Best. Strukturen und Technologien für ein zukunftsfähiges Energiesystem. August 1996..worldbank. seen: June 6th.C./USA.45-54.. German Federal Ministry for Economic Co-operation and Development (BMZ). in: http://www.. seen: th September 15 .... et al.undp. 2003: Wirtschaftlichkeit von Biogasanlagen. Cabraal. 2000: The Potential and Impact of Solar Photovoltaic Systems for Sustainable Agriculture and Rural Development. 1998: The Economics of Sustainable Energy for Rural Development – A Study of Renewable Energy in Rural China. Guidi. G. J.. Vol.. Dhaka/Bangladesh. 2000. Benz. 1998.. . L. 2003. Byrne. 2003. IER-Forschungsbericht Band 69. 2000: Montague Island Photovoltaic/Diesel Hybrid System. Lowe. ATB. et al.de/german/fields/field3/mb1/materialien/Energiemanagement%20f%F Cr%20autonome%20Photovoltaik-Systeme.atb-potsdam.Terms of Reference 113 Terms of Reference Aßmann. 2000. 2003: Energiemanagement für autonome Photovoltaik-Systeme. 2003. J. in: http://www. 2000.nsf/0/8525690b0065f5d18525 68a3005d4a23?OpenDocument. May 2002. Wallace. J.fhg. Barnes.de/hauptseite-deutsch/ATB-aktuell/Presse/PArchiv-aktuell/p_info13_02-dateien/Wirtschaftlichkeit_von_Biogasanlagen. D. D. in: www. BMZ. World Bank Technical Paper Number 324... D..V. G.100: Renewable Energy for Sustainable Development and Climate Protection.. October 2002. A. Barnes. R.... in: http://wbln0018. Glasgow/UK. 1998: Rural Electrification in the Developing World: Lessons from Successful Programms. Blanco. 2003.org/seed/energy/policy/ch_6. Draft. seen: August 3rd. Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung. B. B. The World Bank.worldbank. R. Cosgrove-Davies. Leibniz – Institut für Agrartechnik Bornim e.. Corkish. 2002: Economic and Social Impact Evaluation Study of the Rural Electrification Program in Bangladesh. pp. A. Campen. 2000: Verfahren zur Bestimmung optimaler Versorgungsstrukturen für die Elektrifizierung ländlicher Gebiete in Entwicklungsländern. 1999. Foley. Stuttgart/Germany. 1-5 May 2000.. D. seen: August 23rd. Peter Lang Verlag. Frankfurt/Germany.

. Hammamami. in: http://www5.a-diesel- ESMAP. Washington. volume 1 and 2.D. not yet published. Eschborn/Germany.gtz. November 2000.C. 1999. pp. Vol. The World Bank. Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit GTZ.pdf ESMAP. Njaimi. ESMAP.. Berger.C. 1998/1999: Strassenverkehrslärm. Vol. D. Fachplaner. Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit GTZ. Washington. October 1990. Washington. in: www.pdf FHG ISE.heyde-windtechnik. Dachdecker. in: www.. ESMAP Technical Paper No.de/gate/publications/BiogasDigestVol1. A.. Haselhuhn. 2000: The GEF Solar PV Portfolio: Emerging Experiences and Lessons. in: http://www5. Stuttgart University. 1990: Einsatz regenerativer Energien zur Infrastrukturverbesserung in Entwicklungsländern. 2003. August 2000. in: http://wwwwds.. in: http://www. R.. D. September 2000. in: Geographische Rundschau. 1999. October 2001. 2003: Final Report of the Sino-German project „Use of Wind and Solar Energy in Inner Mongolia and Selected Islands of the People’s Republic of China“. I: Biogas Basics.de/german/fields/field3/mb1/materialien/Design_und_Optimierung/De sign%20&%20Optimierung%20im%20Detail. 2003.V. 1999a: Biogas Digest.. 2003: Design und Optimierung im Detail.org/servlet/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2000/12/15/000094946_00112 305412326/Rendered/PDF/multi_page. Landesverband Berlin Brandenburg e. 007.. Hemmers.III: Biogas Costs and Benefits./USA.Terms of Reference 114 Diesel.C. R. seen: September 2nd./USA.worldbank. Berlin/Germany. Hemmerle.C.pdf. published by DGS – Deutsche Gesellschaft für Sonnenenergie. 2002 Helfer.ise. approach and practical experience. 2001: Best Practice Manual: Promoting Decentralized Electrification Investment. 2000a: Mini-Grid Design Manual./USA. C. Architekten und Bauherren. D. ESMAP Technical Paper 009. Washington..worldbank. et al. 2003: Heyde Windtechnik. GTZ.org/html/fpd/esmap/pdfs/248-01.pdf GTZ. Ounalli. . Braunschweig/Germany. Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit GTZ. 2003: Diesel Generator Superstore generator. in: http://www. Monitoring and Evaluation Paper 2. Eschborn/Germany. 1999b: Biogas Digest. Eschborn/Germany. 2.gtz. 1999: Solar rural electrification in Tunisia. Southwest Supply. The World Bank.. N. Global Environmental Facility GEF. GTZ. M.com. GEF.de/gate/publications/BiogasDigestVol3. The World Bank. 2000b: Photovoltaic Applications in Rural Areas of the Developing World. Auflage.fhg. 2003. 1998/1999. 1999. M. Washington. seen: September 8th.552-558 Heyde. Lecture Handout Stuttgart/Germany. 2002: Photovoltaische Anlagen – Leitfaden für Elektriker. seen: September 5th. F.de. Fraunhofer Gesellschaft Solare Energiesysteme.pdf. USA.

3. 2001/2002.. F. Wiese. Intermediate Technology Development Group. http://www. 1999. seen: August 25th. 2003. 2003. 2000: Monitoring and Evaluation of Solar Home Systems – Experiences with applications of solar PV for households in developing countries.Terms of Reference 115 Homer.ia. Themen 96/97. in: Modulare PV. Iowa Department of Natural Resources/USA. 2002: World Energy Outlook 2002.state.und Hybridsysteme.state. in: Forschungsverbund Sonnenenergie. 2002: Ermittlung der allgemeinen Investitions. Nieuwenhout.. Berlin/Germany. OECD/ International Energy Agency. Neuhäusser. Kassel/Germany..htm.nrel. http://www... seen: August 25th. IEA. ITDG.us/dnr/energy/pubs/whea/hydro2. G.org/html/itdg_southasia/programmes. August 20th. 2003. OECD/ International Energy Agency. IEA. Report IEAPVPS 3-06:1999. Iowa Department of Natural Resources/USA.ia. Iowa.nl/pub/www/library/report/2000/c00089. http://www.D.pdf. Springer Verlag.und Hybridsystemtechnik.gov/homer.. M. OECD/ International Energy Agency.. F. Abschlußbericht FuE Vorhaben Nr. www. 2002. January 1996. Kaltschmitt.. Paris/France. Iowa. F. 2000: Regenerative Energieträger zur Stromerzeugung II. 2003.htm. 2003: South Asia Programmes – Energy. Kaltschmitt. 2001/2002: Regenerative Energieträger zur Stromerzeugung I. 2003. et al. Lecture Handout Stuttgart University. M. Paris/France.. seen: September 23rd.htm. Stuttgart/Germany. March 2002. 2002b: Wind Hybrid Electricity Applications. Wedel/Germany.Teilprojekt PV/Biogas. 1998: Recommended Practices for Charge Controllers. 1996: Schlussbericht Demonstrationsvorhaben zur objektorientierten hybriden Stromversorgung des Klärwerkes Körkwitz/Riebnitz-Damgarten mit DVgestütztem Energiemanagement . 2003: Analysis of small and renewable energy power system options. Stuttgart/Germany 2000. Auflage. A. Iowa Department of Natural Resources/USA. IEA PVPS Task III. Report IEA PVPS T305:1998. OECD/ International Energy Agency.. W. Iowa. 2002c: Wind Hybrid Electricity Applications. M. Kininger. BMBF-Förderkennzeichen 032 9170 A. Raptis. in: http://analysis. seen: August 25th.state. Grid-Compatible Power Supply. Institut für Solare Energieversorgungstechnik (ISET). Wirtschaftlichkeit. in: ftp://ftp. Kleinkauf. IEA. 1998. 2003. 1999b: Stand-alone PV Systems in Developing Countries. 2002a: Wind Hybrid Electricity Applications.us/dnr/energy/pubs/whea/producer.us/dnr/energy/pubs/whea/micro_hydro. Paris/France.itdg. 1999a: Lead-Acid Battery Guide for Stand-Alone Photovoltaic Systems. August 1999. 1996/1997: Electrification with Renewable Energies – Hybrid Plant Technology for Decentralised.ia.J. IEA. Lecture Handout Stuttgart University.ecn. September 2000. . Kaltschmitt.htm. Paris/France. Umweltaspekte. 2003: Erneuerbare Energien: Systemtechnik.und Betriebskostenstrukturen für modulare PV. 0329833.

February 5th/6th.. Programm Lebensgrundlage Umwelt und ihre Sicherung (BWPLUS). 2001. Zwischenbericht anlässlich des Statusseminars des BWPLUS am 1.V. edp-Entwicklungspolitik 21/2000. W. Volume 13: An Annual Review of Research and Development. Puls. A. in: Fachseminar Netzferne Stromversorgung mit Photovoltaik.. K. Survey of Prognos Institute on behalf of Greenpeace. 2002: Implementation of Renewable Energy Technologies – Opportunities and Barriers. Richards.. H. R. 2000: Feasibility Study for a Solar Home Systems Project within the Context of Alternative Options for Rural Electrification.de/german/fields/field3/mb1/materialien/Optimierungswerkzeug%20f %FCr%20Auslegung%20und%20Betriebsfuehrung. D. 1999. UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment. Preiser. 2003. Preiser. 039722 des vom BMBF geförderten Vorhabens. 2003: Netzferne Stromversorgung mit Photovoltaik.. .gov/en/pb/pd/mexicopaper. 2000: Evaluation. die Schweiz und Österreich. June 2000. September 3rd. et al.re. in http://www. Gelsenkirchen/Germany.. in: Renewable Energies for the South – New Support for Clean Energy Investment in Developing Countries. Surkow. E. Leipzig/Germany 1999. et al. Fraunhofer Gesellschaft. 1999: Optimierung der Leistungsverfügbarkeit von Windenergie durch ihre Integration in Wind-Biogas-Hybridanlagen. 1999: Photovoltaics in Mexico: A Model for Increasing the Use of Renewable Energy Systems. Krewitt. Roth.epd.htm Sauer. Preprint of a chapter that appeared in Advances in Solar Energy. in: http://www. K. T. Fenhann. J.pdf.. und 2.. J. 2000: Ein überschätzter Hoffnungsträger.. G. J. published by the American Solar Energy Society (ASES).Terms of Reference 116 Nill.. in: http://www. Munich/Germany. in: http://www. D..pdf Scheelhasse. Marheineke. Sauer. Science Park Gelsenkirchen. Fraunhofer-Institut für Solare Energiesysteme ISE. K. Riso National Laboratory. Freiburg/Germany. Colorado/USA. Sauer.fhg. 2003. Voß.. Abschlußbericht zum Forschungsvorhaben Nr. 1999. Wissenschaftliche Mitteilungen aus dem Institut für Meteorologie der Universität Leipzig und dem Institut für Troposphärenforschung e. Bopp.. 2003. Summary of Country Studies. Boulder. Erprobung und Weiterentwicklung von PV-Systemen in Indonesien. Haker.fhg. H. 2000: Grundlagen zur Beurteilung der Nachhaltigkeit von Energiesystemen in Baden-Württemberg.. January 2000. 2001: Photovoltaic Hybrid Systems – Energy Supply for Villages. M.de/entwicklungspolitik/2000/21sauer. W. April 1999.ise. 2003: Optimierungswerkzeug für Auslegung und Betriebsführung – Kostenrechnung und Batteriemodell inklusive...pdf. 1999: Inselanlagen – Was kosten sie?. 2002.. Painuly. Leipzig.. et al. 1999: Mehr Arbeitsplätze durch ökologisches Wirtschaften? Eine Untersuchung für Deutschland. Prokaushali Sangsad Ltd. 2000.. Final Report.ise. R.de/german/fields/field3/mb1/materialien/Inselanlagen%20%20was%20kosten%20sie..sandia. Friedrich... Karlsruhe/Germany.. Denmark.. prepared for the World Bank. März 2000 im Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe.

. D. Tomkins. 1948. . 2003: Extending rural electrification: A survey of innovative schemes. deren Auswirkungen auf die Wirtschaftsstruktur und Ableitung technologiepolitischer Handlungsempfehlungen. World Health Organisation. in: http://www. The World Bank. 1995: Erneuerbare Energie: Energieformen. 2002: Der Beitrag regenerativer Energien und rationeller Energienutzung zur wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung in Nordrhein-Westfalen – Analyse und Bewertung von Zukunftstechnologien. November 2001. 1998: The Use of Photovoltaics for Rural Electrification in Northwestern China. Report no: 2001-116 (TR)411HYBRND. Washington.. – Vaduz: Olynthus-Verlags-Anstalt. 2001: PV Horizon: Workshop on Photovoltaic Hybrid Systems – Summary and Conclusions of the Workshop. Geneva/Switzerland. 1996. 1998. Ergebnisse der einzeltechnologischen Analysen. 2. 2003.Aufl. Wallace.nrel.gov/ncpv/pdfs/photo. 2002: A Framework for Action on Energy. in: http://rru. Bd. The World Bank.C. S. Presented at the 2nd World Conference and Exhibition on Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conversion.– 2. D.. August 2002. R. CANMET Energy Diversification Research Laboratory. Umwelteinflüsse. R.. Wuppertal Institut für Klima. W. 1995. South Africa. Turcotte..Terms of Reference 117 The World Bank. Washington./USA. Tsd. Vienna/Austria. 2002. Energie GmbH. Johannesburg. 34.L. 1996. WEHAB Working Group.. 1996a: Rural Energy and Development – Improving Energy Supplies for Two Billion People.C. F. August 2002./USA. D. Natural Resources Canada. Umwelt.pdf. et al. Varennes/Canada. July 6th-10th.worldbank. World Summit on Sustainable Development. Webers Taschenlexikon.. Sheriff. 1996b: Best Practices for Photovoltaic Household Electrification Programs – Lessons from Experiences in Selected Countries. Wuppertal/Germany. bis 53. July 20th.org/Documents/10ch5. WHO. Nutzungstechniken.pdf Weber. The World Bank. Pneumaticos. Endbericht Band II. 1948: Constitutions of World Health Organisation. Wuppertal Institute.