Water Wate and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in China

2 December 2008, Selangor, Malaysia

Dr. Guoqing Wang
Research Center for Climate Change MWR China Change, MWR, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, China_

The views expressed in this paper/presentation are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), or its Board of Governors, or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included i thi paper and accepts no t d t t th f th d t i l d d in this d t responsibility for any consequence of their use. Terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.

Contents
How serious of Water issues in China Water-related Water related climate change study Adaptive strategies to climate change Case study for Yellow River Basin Expectation and possible collaboration

Flooding

High flood-induced loss, 71% of total losses. Flooding 1991, HuaiH River, , 1996, South HaiH River 1998, Yangtze River, SongHJ River, Min River 2003, Huai River, Wei River, and HanJ River 2005, Huai River and HanJ River, 2007, HuaiH River.

Increasing flooding frequency!

Flooding g

Flood detention basin

Dam

Reservoirs

Dyke

Imperfect flood defense system p y 1. 2. • • Vulnerable structural projects: 87,000 flood defense works built. 37% of that can’t work well. Weak nonstructural measures: forecasting, warning system, etc. HIGHER FUTURE development, HIGHER flood-induced losses. GREAT CHALLENGE of future flood defense and disaster relief relief.

Water supply pp y

• 1. 2.

Features of Drought: large affecting scope, and high losses China: 2200 m3 per person, (1/4 of the world level). 40% of China people live in water-deficit areas. City water supply: 400/668, in water deficit level, 108/668, in heavy water deficit, 0.16 billion, 0 16 billion affected people

Drinking water security, a big problem.

Water supply
458 m3 1999

Less than 200 m3 Water deficit 30 40 30~40 billion m3

1949

In Normal Year

demand supply

Ecological environment

Polluted Huai River
• • • •

Dried Baiyang Lake y g

Soil and water losing area: 3 56 million km2 (37%) ; 3.56 Annual losing soil: 5.1 billion tones; Pollution in 2004: Class Ⅲ standard reach, 41% of appraisal reach. Environment problems: Flow running dry, channel shrinkage, desertification, overexploitation of groundwater groundwater, shrinkage in wetland, etc.

Change in runoff: China
20 0 De eparture(%) -20 -40 -60 -80 80 Basin and station Yangze River

Wujiadu u

n Zhangjiafen

Tangnaiha ai

Wangjiaba a

X Xiangshuibao o

Huayuankou u

Jiangqiao o

Wuzhou u

Yichang g

Guantai i

Xiahui

Hankou u

Yellow River Huai River

Haihe River

Songliao River

Haerbin n

Shixiali i

Datong g

Tieling g

Pear and Min River

Departure of average runoff from 1981~2004 (baseline: 1950~1980) • • • • Trends as a whole:decreasing Significant decreasing :Haihe River, Yellow River, Liao River insignificant decreasing:Huai River Songliao River etc River, River, insignificant increasing:M-L Yangze River, Upper Huai River, etc.

Shijiao o

Zhuq qi

Lijin n

Change in runoff: Haihe River
Average discharge (m3/s) 1955-2004 Guantai Shixiali Xiahui Zhangjiafen 31.3 16.1 16 1 8.61 17.4 17 4 Before 1980 48.9 24.7 24 7 11.2 25.0 25 0 After 1980 10.8 5.77 5 77 6.68 9.4 94 Departure of runoff in 1981-2004 (%) 1955-2004 -65.4 -64.2 64 2 -22.4 -45.6 45 6 1950-1980 -77.9 -76.6 76 6 -40.1 -62.2 62 2

stations

Change in runoff: Yellow River

Stations

Average discharge (m3/s) 19551955 2004 Before B f 1980 638 1460 1360

Departure of runoff in 1981-2004 (%) 19501950 1980 -3.2 - 33.0 - 55.5

After Aft 1980 1955 2004 1955-2004 617 978 605 - 1.6 - 21.4 - 40.5

Tangnaihai Huayuankou Lijin

627 1240 1020

Contents
How serious of water issues in China Water-related climate change study Adaptive strategies to climate change p g g Case study for Yellow River Basin Expectation and possible collaboration E t ti d ibl ll b ti

National Key Project (1992-1996 ) y j (
Tributaries Hydr ro-meteorolog Database gic GCMs Social econom database mic

Study Catchments: Tributaries of six big rivers Assessment Models: Lumped Water Balance Models

Random weather model

Water balance models

Assessment system of water

40 Runoff/m mm 30 20 10 0 1960

Sub-area1

Effect assessment

Adaptation measures

1962

1964 1966 Time/month

1968

Assessment: The future water resources, based on outputs of 7 GCMs

National Key Project (1997-2001 )
GCMs or RCM (60km×60km) Hyd dro-meteorol logic database
80 60
- 2℃ - 1℃ 0℃ 1℃ 2℃

Downscaling of P and T (30km×30km) GIS database
DR(%

40 20 0 - 20 - 40 D % P( ) - 20 - 10 0 10 20

30km×30km grid based hydrological model g y g

Spatial distribution and simulated discharge

Sensitivity analysis

Study basins St d basins: 4 big river basins (Yellow River, Yangtze River, Huaihe River, ri er (Yello Ri er Yangt e Ri er H aihe Ri er Haihe River) Assessment Models: 30×30km grid based hydrologic model Assessment: sensitivity analysis

National Key Project (2002-2006)
Study area: China Assessment Model: VIC model d l Assessment: vulnerability, Threshold value

Relative change in average annual water quota in 2050 under the scenario A2

A A2 scenario a Change in runoff distribution under the scenario A2 C ff • • Probability of flood and drought hazards would increase, and the pattern of south-flood and north-drought would aggravate aggravate.

Change in runoff distribution under the scenario B2 C ff • Similar to that under scenario A2, exacerbating the instability of water system

B2 scenario n

Ongoing programs (2007-2010) g g g ( )
National key program” Ad t ti N ti lk ” Adaptation strategies for water t t i f t vulnerable areas in China” Nonprofit program on water conservation “Impact of Impact climate change on water security and adaptative measures in China”

Contents
How serious of water issues in China Water-related climate change study Adaptive strategies to climate change p g g Case study for Yellow River Basin Expectation and possible collaboration E t ti d ibl ll b ti

1. Building a Water-Saving Society
建设节水型社会,提高水资源利用效率是解决我国水资源短缺的基本途径 Building a water-saving society, to improve the efficiency of water use, it i th f d is the fundamental resolution t Chi ’ water scarcity. t l l ti to China’s t it

Index of water usage Consumed Water/ 10000GDP(RMB) The effective-utilization coefficient of agricultural irrigation water

China 537 m3 0.4- 0.4-0.5

Developed Countries

4×World Mean value

0.7~ 0.7~0.8

How to establish a water-saving society
初始水权识别,Identify the initial water right. 建立两个指标体系,To 建立两个指标体系 To establish two index systems: 总量控制,Total Quantity at macro level (for regions) and 定额控制,Quota at micro level (for each water user). water-user). 实施水权贸易体制,实现水资源的高效分配; Implement the water right trading system to realize highp g g y g efficiency allocation of water resources. 政府调节、市场机制与公众参与相结合; Combining governmental regulation, market orientation and public participation.

2. Developing & Utilizing of Non-Traditional WR

非传统水源的开发利用
Developing & Utilizing of Non-Traditional Water Resources p g g 洪水资源的最大化利用 Maximizing utilization of flood water (rainfall)
1.35万亿立方洪水资源很难在正常年份利用, 1 35万亿立方洪水资源很难在正常年份利用 因此需要加强控制性工程与非工程措施建设 1.35 trillion m3 flood water, be difficult to be used for normal years. To enhance flood controlling engineer and nonstructural measures

2. Developing & Utilizing of Non-Traditional WR 废水利用
( p ) Utilization of waste water (an important resources to be utilized) 2006年我国排放的废水高达730亿立方,到2050年,将达到1100-1500亿 立方;Discharged waster water 73 billion tons in 2006 in China, and will reach to 110 ~ 150 billion tons in 2050.

海水的利用 Utilization of sea water
由于海水脱盐费用较大 目前海水利用较少 但未来利用的潜力巨大 由于海水脱盐费用较大,目前海水利用较少,但未来利用的潜力巨大 Small amount has been utilized, as high-cost for the desalination, but there is a great potential of sea water utilization in future

需要科学技术的支撑
All based on the Science and Technology Support

3. Constructing more Water Controlling Projects
加强水库、堤防、滞洪区的建设,提高对自然灾害的承受能力和供水能力。 To construct reservoirs, river dikes and flood retention areas, to enhance the capability of withstanding of natural flood disasters and the capacity of water supply 建设流域间的调水工程,实现多流域水资源的优化利用。 To construct water transfer projects between basins, to realize the optimal allocation basins and utilization of water resources in basins.

Water transfer project from South to North

中线 工程 ML 西 线 工 程 WL 黄河 Yellow river 淮河Huaihe river 长江Yangtize

海河Haihe river 东 线 工 程 EL

South-to-North water transfer project
3-line: E t Middl W t 3 li East, Middle, West 南水北调 程总体布局示意图 南水北调工程总体布局示意图

East Route
从 长 江 下 游 取 水 , draw water from downstream of Yangtze. 向天津、山东和河北供水, Water supply to: Tianjin city, Sandong and Hebei provinces 工 程 长 度 , Route length : 1150km 运行Operation: 13个提水站,总 提 水 高 度 65 米 。 13 pumping p p g stations, with total pumping height 65m 输 输水能力Transferring capacity: g p y 近期(Recently): 400 m3/s (water transfer 6-7 billion m3 per years, cost 5 billion RMB) 远期目标(for long term): 1000 m3/s

Middle route
自长江中游引水;Discharge water from middle of Yangtze 向北京、天津、河北供水; 、 、 ; Water supply to: Beijing and Tianjin cities, and Hebei provinces 路线长度Route length: 1246km 输水能力 a s e 输水能力Transferring g capacity: 近期目标(short term): 350 m3/s (8-9 billion m3 water transfer to north per year, cost 78 billion RMB)

West Route R t 自长江上游调水,

目前仅处于规划及 勘测阶段。 Discharge water from the upstream of Yangtze river to upstream of yellow river basin,, only in the phase of planning and survey

4. To enhance the Integrated Management of WR 完善法规体系,加强一体化水资源管理
Perfecting Policies, Regulations, to enhance the Management of water resources 开展新一轮的水资源评价和规划 The second national assessment of water resources and planning for integrated utilization will be issued soon (2002-2008) 健全法律法规,Laws and regulations 水法,water l 水法 t law 水资源保护法,water resources protection law , 取水许可制, water using license (April 9, 2008 issued) g ( p , ) 地 方 水 资 源 管 理 条 例 和 法 律 , local governmental laws or regulations for water resources management Integrated

Contents
Water issues in China Climate change study Adaptive strategies to climate change p g g Case study for Yellow River Basin Our O expectation and possible collaboration t ti d ibl ll b ti

YR Introduction

Drought

ISSUES IN WATER • • Location of YRB Water shortage; Flooding; Water quality Challenge under the CC
YRB

Flooding

• •

Soil losing

Impact of environmental change on Runoff
Temperature change

Climate change Human activities
Rainfall change

9 8 年

+

+

-

-

Impact of environmental change on Runoff

Reced (108m3) Background 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-2000 1970-2000 237.5 148.5 172.7 95.3 138.8 138 8

Caled (108m3)

Total reduction (108m3)

Climate-induced (108m3) (%)

Human induced (108m3) (%)

198.5 217.6 181.1 199.5 199 5

89.0 64.8 142.2 98.7 98 7

39.0 19.9 56.4 38.0 38 0

43.82 30.67 39.64 38.53 38 53

50.0 44.9 85.8 60.6 60 6

56.18 69.33 60.36 61.47 61 47

In: J.Y.Zhang, G.Q.Wang, Impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources, 2007

Sensitivity of runoff to climate change
80 60 DR(% 40 20 0 - 20 - 20 - 10 0 - 40 D (% P ) 10 20

80

0℃ 1℃ 2℃

DR(%

Region g 1

- 2℃ - 1℃

Region 2 20 Region
40 0 - 20 - 20 - 10 0 - 40 D (% P ) 80

60

- 2℃ - 1℃ 0℃ 1℃ 2℃

2

10 20

80 60 DR(% % 40 20 0 - 20 - 20 - 10 0 - 40 D (% P ) 10 20

0℃ 1℃ 2℃

DR(% %

Region 3

- 2℃ - 1℃

60 40 20 0

Region 4
10 20

- 20 - 20 - 10 0 - 40 D (% P )

- 2℃ - 1℃ 0℃ 1℃ 2℃

Note:DP is change in precipitation, DR is change in runoff

Main Issues on Water and Climate Change Adaptation in the Yellow River Basin
Water cellars • • • Dyke • ISSUES IN ADAPTATION Water ll W t cellars Dyke Check dams Terrace, etc EXTREM WEATHER Design standard? Terrace T Check dams

Ongoing / Planned Water and Climate Change Ad t ti Ch Adaptation Initiatives in the I iti ti i th Yellow River Basin
• Water transfer projects • Water transfer from south to north Sediment and water S di t d t regulation with reservoirs Ecological environment restoration Integrated water allocation Water-saving Water saving society Water-saving Water saving society

• Sediment and water regulation

• •

Integrated water allocation

Contents
How serious of water issues in China Water-related climate change study Adaptive strategies to climate change p g g Case study for Yellow River Basin Expectation and possible collaboration E t ti d ibl ll b ti

Expectations from the Regional Knowledge p g g Hub (NAHRIM) and its Network
• The role of MWR-RCCC
1. New research center under the MWR within Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute 2. Undertake water-related climate change research 3. Provide scientific assessment for climate change impacting on water sector. sector
4. Seek for effective measures to adapt climate change

5. Support climate-related policy making

Expectations from the Regional Knowledge p g g Hub (NAHRIM) and its Network Climate change projections
Downscaling technology; Climate change projections with fine resolution.

Impact assessments
Assessment methods Impact of climate change on water quality Impact of climate change on flood and drought

Adaptation strategies Ad t ti t t i
Adaptation for flood control Adaptation for water supp y daptat o o ate supply climate-related policy making.

Proposed collaboration with NAHRIM p
1. Climate change and climate scenario 2. Assessment model for climate change impacting on water 3. Impact of climate change on water sector • • • • Flood Drought Water quality Sensitivity and vulnerability of water resources system

4. Feasible and effective adaptation strategies to climate change p g g

Thanks for your attention

The Research Center for Climate Change Ministry of Water Resources, China gqwang0258@yahoo.com.cn gqwang0258@yahoo com cn

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