REGIONAL WORKSHOP IN DEVELOPING PARTNERSHIPS FOR WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION 1- 5 DECEMBER 2008, HOTEL EQUATORIAL BANGI

-PUTRAJAYA, SELANGOR, MALAYSIA NAHRIM/NARBO/ADB

MALAYSIA: Water and Climate Change - “projection, vulnerability, adaptation, p policy, capacity building, etc” y p y g
Ir. SALMAH BINTI ZAKARIA, PhD, FAsc
Director General Di t G l National Hydraulic Research Institute Of Malaysia (NAHRIM) Ministry Of Natural Resources And Environment (MoNRE)
The views expressed in this paper/presentation are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), or its Board of Governors, or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. Terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.

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OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION
WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SO C S G CLIMATE CHANGE & POLICY CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION VULNERABILITY ADAPTATION CAPACITY BUILDING WHAT NEXT

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Water Resources Management

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Vision 2020
30years:1990-2020

A Developed Country with the environment remaining pristine
Have appropriate economic independence, g p shelter, food and clothing of acceptable quality Clean land, clean air, clean water (including coastal waters) environment & waters), bio-diversity well managed for our continued survival
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189 River Basins Over 330,000 sq km

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Water Challenges
Wa e supp y Water supply Water quality Other Environmental Challenges Governance and Management Instruments

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Water S W t Supply l
Domestic and Industrial Agriculture Environment Hydropower H d Transportation Recreation

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Hydrological balance in Malaysia
(billion cubic meters per year)

Region

Rainfall Surface Runoff

Distribution EvapoTrans piration Ground water Recharge 20 14 30

JICA Study (1982) Pen Malaysia Sabah Sarawak

320 194 476

147 113 306

153 67 140

Malaysia (1982) y ( ) SMHB (2000) Pen Malaysia

990

566

360

64

324

152

152

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D & I and Agricultural needs
2000 D&I (in MLD) (in million m3/yr)* Irrigation Water Demand ( million m3/yr) Total (mill m3/yr)* % of runoff f ff 9,543 3,483 7,350 7 350 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

15,285 20,338 24,485 28,131 31,628 5,579 7,423 8,937 10,268 11,544 6,517 6 517 6,517 6 517 6,132 6 132 6,132 6 132 6,132 6 132

10,833 12,086 13,940 15,069 16,400 17,676 7.1% 7.6% 9.2% 9.9% 10.8% 11.6% 7 1% 7 6% 9 2% 9 9% 10 8% 11 6%

Extracted and calculated from SMHB et al
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Water Quality y
Pollutants Chemical
industrial ll t t i d t i l pollutants residuals from agricultural fertilisers and pesticides households

Organic
microbial contamination agriculture and livestock waste

Solids
Silts, sediment and construction waste material House waste

At risk
Oil spills Leachate from land fills
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Solid waste in rivers

Solid wastes

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Multi coloured Rivers

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Inland water bodies
Asia, Asia Europe and America
More than 40% of lakes were identified as eutrophic Eutrophic, very rich in nutrients

Malaysia
A preliminary desk top study in 2005 surveyed 90 lakes and reservoirs more than 60% of the 90 l k and h f h lakes d reservoirs surveyed were eutrophic

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Coastal W t C t l Waters
Major pollution sources j p
From the hinterland, washed to the coast
domestic waste and industrial wastes Animal and agricultural waste

land reclamation

Oil Pollution (Source: DOE) ( )

At risk from oil pollution
Discharges and spills from oil tankers t k vessel accidents coastal oil refineries and pipelines
Oil Spill Cleanup (Source: DOE) 14

Other E i Oth Environmental Challenges t l Ch ll
Floods Droughts Erosion (coastal and rivers) ( ) Forest Fires Climate Change

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Floods – 2006/07

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Floods - Old

Tmn Sri Muda, , Shah Alam, Dec1995

Kelantan Kuching 2003

Kuala Lumpur, 2005 PJ, 2000
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Floods - Older

Kuala Lumpur 1971

KL Railway, around 1920s

Kuantan 1975 Padang Kelab Selangor…. 1949
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Drought g

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Erosion

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Forest Fires
Forest fires and haze now ha e no have a common recurrent of 3-4 years in Malaysia and Indonesia Major threats causing the loss of peat swamp forests Cause: Improper peat land management

Firemen battle peat fires 200 firemen are battling the biggest forest and peat fires triggered by the current dry spell at the Bukit Tarik forest ti d b th td ll t th B kit T ik f t reserve in Lembah Beringin, Kuala Kubu Baru. As of press time the firemen had succeeded in putting out fires covering over 5,000ha of the forest.

The New Straits Times 16 Feb 2002 p Fires to be put out within two weeks

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How Does Peat Form?

Flooded hollows and basins provide ideal growing conditions of reeds and sedges and in humid tropical climate, indigenous shrubs and rain forests trees
Key to Formation of Peat Bog
•Http://www.nics.gov.uk/doe env/leaflet5.htm 22

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1.

When the vegetation dies, it does not rot away completely as the water in the hollows prevents oxygen, which most decomposer organisms need to live, from reaching the dead plants. The partly-rotted plants gradually build up to form the peat swamp. Eventually dark fibrous peat completely fills the hollow to form a peat swamp basin. Most of the nutrients are tied up in the peat and so the only minerals available for plant growth are those dissolved in rainfall. The decomposition of the rotted material create a very acidic environment, and in humid tropical climate, rain forests with appropriate root systems thrived. In some areas, eg Sarawak, an increasing thickness of peat slowly accumulates and the surface of the peat swamp starts to rise above the surrounding land, sometimes reaching a height of more than 7m after o e than yea s o g owt . e wate tab e more t a 6,000 years of growth. The water table in the raised mass fluctuates seasonally. But the moist condition remains because of the sponge-like abilities of the peat and the humidity and wet climate. The original peat swamp has now become a raised peat land. l d

2.

2
3.

3

4.

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•Http://www.nics.gov.uk/doe env/leaflet5.htm 23

Peat Environment

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Climate Change
Exacerbate current water challenges

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Governance and M G d Management t Instruments
Generally Sectoral, and needs to be integrated in areas i di
Institutions and Legislations Awareness, Advocacy A areness Ad ocac and Capacit B ilding Capacity Building Financing

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Existing Over-arching Policy on g g y Water Resources Management
Third Outline perspective Plan (OPP3) for the years 20012010 describes development thrusts for a sustainable environmental development, IWRM Eight M l i Pl Ei h Malaysia Plan (8MP) f the years 2001 2005 for h 2001-2005
‘Adopting an integrated and holistic approach in addressing environmental and resource issues to attain sustainable development. development.’ , IWRM and IRBM

Ninth Malaysia Plan (9MP) for the years 2006-2010
Promotes environmental stewardship to strengthen
Preventive measures to mitigate negative environmental effects at source Intensifying conservation efforts

Strengthening of the institutional capacity and regulatory framework g g p y g y
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From a technically1 ideal standpoint, Malaysia might wish to create a y p , y g Water Resource Ministry (WRM)…
2003: Institutional Study on Water Resources Management in Malaysia

• Malaysia has a highly fragmented water management system. • Malaysia’s water management Malaysia s system is disorganised. • Malaysia does not have an empowered champion for water. • Malaysia lacks an effective and sustainable national policy/framework for water.

To have a ‘Water Resource Ministry’ to provide single-focus, sustainable, ‘Integrated Water Resource Management’ (IWRM) for Malaysia

…But several ‘fixes’ to the current water management system would be required, and there would be significant challenges to be overcome
Note: (1) Technical in this case refers to water-related technical issues

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Our Response
Reorganising of Ministries, 29 March 2004 g g
Two new ministries related to the water sector
Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) Dealing with land and water resources and environment i t Ministry of Energy and Water and Communication (MEWC) Dealing with service provisions utilities

Issues on agriculture waters and project approvals at local levels remain with the Ministry of Agriculture and Local Authorities, respectively

Preparation of National Physical Plan (NPP) Preparation of National Water Policy
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National Physical Plan (NPP)
Goal
The establishment of an efficient, eq itable and s stainable efficient equitable sustainable national spatial framework to guide the overall development of the country towards achieving developed nation status by 2020

Objectives
To rationalise national spatial planning for economic efficiency and global competitiveness. d l b l titi To optimise utilisation of land and natural resources for sustainable development. To promote balanced regional development for national unity. To secure spatial and environmental quality and diversity for a high quality of life.

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10 Principles of NPP
P1: Develop the country as a single integrated unit.
P2: Promote areas of greatest growth potential

P3: Maximise the use of existing and committed infrastructure. P4: Protect national heritage areas and locations locations. P5: Encourage the development of regions based on their potentials.
P6: Favour public transport over private vehicle use for interurban and i t b d intra-city movement. it t P7: Strive towards compact urban forms with clear identity.

P8: Avoid disrupting ecological stability.
P9: Facilitate the development of the k-economy. k economy. P10: Strengthen urban and rural linkages.

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National Water Policy
Currently being looked into y g
There is a need to have an all inclusive National Water Policy, acceptable and supported by all stakeholders, stakeholders and included in it sho ld be incl ded should
Strategies of managing all the challenges, including climate change Action Plans with milestones Supported by needed resources

IWRM2005 Project: Completed in 2006
Proposed a National Framework for Water Resources g (NFWRM) ) Management (
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Vision for National Framework for WRM (NFWRM)
Water Resources Management fully integrated through out the country from the head waters to the coastal areas
Equity distribution of water between the sectors
Water supply for industry, housing and agriculture, integrated and well coordinated

Clean and vibrant rivers and water bodies Malaysia’s biodiversity and gene bank, recognised, protected, thriving and contributing to the country’s economy Floods, erosion, land slides and other land & water related challenges, well managed and under control
12/10/2008 33

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The NFWRM
Focuses on Water resources governance
Incorporate land and water, together with other related resources, weaved i a matrix that d in i h
Complement one another Workable, and developing incrementally, if necessary Supported, monitored, assisted and enforced by all stakeholders

Ensure sustainable economic growth and pristine environment Inclusive in it
Managed the vulnerability of the country attributed to impact of climate change

Support, nurture and develop related water services pp , p turning them into successful businesses; beyond the shores of the nation Must have action plans with targeted milestones

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Suggested Milestones NFWRM
Immediate Term
6 months to 2 years : secure financial support to develop the framework - as directed by the NWRC and chaired by the YAB PM

Short Term
2-3 years: Develop the framework, together with more detail milestones and prioritize action plans

Medium Term
3-10 years: implement prioritized areas of actions such as
over-arching IRWM legislations to fit-in (adapt, adopt, amend) existing water related laws and proposed water related laws, which lies within a connected and contiguous single environmental system or units setting up river basin organizations (189 of them) to manage development within each basin managed i d impact of global warming on climate changes and water resources t f l b l i li t h d t

Visionary Term
Over 2 planning horizons or more, each of 25 to 30 years
Achieve Clean Water in lakes, rivers , ground water resources and coastal waters The water sector developed to include development of related businesses providing service provisions beyond our shores

May need to be packaged to anticipate/dovetail election schedules, not only to ensure compliance but to monitor impacts

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Climate Change g & Policy

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Generic Policies - 1
Adopts a “precautionary principle” and “no regret” policy,
that ti th t action, j tifi d i th i right, could b t k t justified in their i ht ld be taken to mitigate or adapt to climate change, even though there are still scientific uncertainties. Utilises the overarching framework on sustainable g developments goals of the Third Malaysia Plan (19761980)

Some Strategies Previously adopted
Energy sector is a major contribution to GHGs to the atmosphere.
Besides petroleum/oil; Identify alternative energy sources such as hydro power and gas Promote energy efficiency among industries buildings and the industries, transport sector

Implement public awareness programs promoting energy efficiency, recycling and use of public transport (cont…)

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Generic Policies - 2
Some Strategies Previously adopted (…cont)
Maintain an effective forest management and conservation program to preserve biodiversity and sinks ti t bi di it d i k for GHGs Ensure food sufficiency by through appropriate g management and R&D Undertake R&D in Climate Change Projection

Additional policies in 2008
Setting up of a Cabinet Committee on Climate Change g p g
Draft National Policy on Climate Change completed

Commitment of the National Water Resources Council on the need to manage impact of climate change on water resources
Endorsement of the need for finer downscaling of climate change projection Endorsement of a study on impact assessment on water resources related infrastructure

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Malaysia’s Milestones Commitment on Climate Change
Date
1989 1994 1995 2000 2002 2002 2004 2007 2008 2008

chronology
Malaysia ratified Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer Malaysia ratified UNFCCC Malaysia set up National Climate Committee Malaysia submitted Initial National Communication (INC) to UNFCCC Malaysia ratified K t P t M l i tifi d Kyoto Protocol l Set up National Committee on Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) NAHRIM commenced Reg Hydro-Climatic Model for Peninsula Malaysia (Reg HCM PM) HCM-PM) completed in 2006 Malaysia begins preparation for Second National Communication , anticipated to complete in 2009, uses NAHRIM CCProj as base line for WG2 NAHRIM commenced to CC Projection Study for Sabah and Sarawak, anticipated to complete in 2010 Cabinet Committee on Climate Change set up and Draft National Climate Policy Completed NWRC endorsed the need for downscaling of climate change projection to finer resolution and R&D in impact assessment
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Climate Change g Projection

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Climate Change Projections g j
Currently, steered by the CC Projection Subcommittee, chaired by NAHRIM, under WG2 for the preparation of NC2 h i f Institutions currently involved
NAHRIM and DID of the Ministry of NRE MMD (Malaysian Meteorological Dept), Ministry of Science and Technology National University, UKM University University Malaya, UM

Anticipated more institutions and universities will be interested eg
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) Water Supply Department
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Observed Climate Change
GLOBAL*
1906-2005 1906 2005 Surface p temperature (ºC) Sea l S level l rise (mm/yr) 0.74

MALAYSIA
1968-2002 1968 2002 0.49 – 0.91**

1961-2003 1.8 18

1993-2003 3.1 31

1986-2006 1.25 **

* IPCC 4TH ASESSMENT REPORT (AR4), 2007 MMD **MMD ***DID, 2007
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NAHRIM REGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE MODEL
The regional hydrologic atmospheric model of hydrologic-atmospheric Peninsular Malaysia, ‘Regional Hydroclimate Model of Peninsular Malaysia (RegHCM-PM)’ was developed from
Downscaling global climate change simulation data (Canadian GCM1 current and future climate data) that are at very coarse resolution ( 410km), t fi l ti (~ 410k ) to finer spatial resolution ti l l ti (~9km) for Peninsular Malaysia Able to quantify the impact of the complex topographical and q y p p p g p land surface features of Peninsular Malaysia on its climate conditions.

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Data grid of CGCM1 that were used in the RegHCM-PM. The ocean grids which are used in the RegHCM PM are RegHCM-PM shown as blue. The land grids which are used in the RegHCM-PM are shown as green.

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The grid layout for the outer domain (1st Domain, 26x28 grids, 81 km resolution) of the RegHCM-PM grids under Mercator projection.

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Locations of selected stream gauging stations and watersheds t ti d t h d

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Sub-regions in Peninsular Malaysia Sub-

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RESULTS: Future Air Temperature
Mean temperature during the future period is higher than during historical period up to 1 4 1.4 deg Celcius. Increase of maximum monthly temperature of up to 2.0 deg Celcius all over Peninsular Malaysia. Malaysia

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Temperature change until 2100

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Summary of Historical And Future Monthly Air Temperature (2025-2050)
Subregion Name Maximum Monthly Air Temp (deg C) Mean Monthly Air Temp (deg C) Minimum Monthly Air Temp (deg C) Historical Future Increase % Increase Historical Future Increase % Increase Historical Future Increase %I Increase West Coast 28.9 30.7 1.8 6.2% 27.3 28.6 1.3 4.7% 24.9 26.2 1.3 5.2% 5 2% Klang 27.7 29.7 2.0 7.2% 26.5 27.9 1.4 5.3% 24.8 25.5 0.7 2.8% 2 8% Selangor 27.7 29.5 1.8 6.5% 26.4 27.8 1.4 5.3% 24.7 25.4 0.7 2.8% 2 8% Terengganu 28.2 29.9 1.7 6.0% 25.5 26.8 1.3 5.1% 21.9 23.1 1.2 5.5% 5 5% Kelantan 28.0 29.6 1.6 5.7% 25.3 26.5 1.2 4.7% 21.0 22.4 1.4 6.7% 6 7% Pahang 28.3 29.9 1.6 5.7% 26.1 27.4 1.3 5.0% 22.8 24.1 1.3 5.7% 5 7%
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RESULTS: Future Precipitation p
More extreme hydrological conditions in the future may be expected since higher maximum and lower y p g minimum precipitation are observed. Increase in maximum monthly precipitation of up to 51% over Pahang Kelantan and Terengganu Pahang, Terengganu. Decrease in minimum monthly precipitation from 32% to 61% for all over Peninsular Malaysia. There is a substantial decrease in future precipitation and river flow at the northwestern subregion ( p g (especially at Kedah watershed) of y ) Peninsular Malaysia, when compared to the historical conditions

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Summary of Historical And Future Monthly Precipitation (2025-2050)
West W t Coast 600.0 560.3 -39.7 -6.6 6.6 179.2 176.2 -3.0 -1.7 12.4 7.9 -4.5 -36.3 36 3 SelanS l gor 564.1 525.7 -38.4 -6.8 6.8 190.2 180.9 -9.3 +4.9 12.2 8.3 -3.9 -32 32 TerenT ggau 1271.2 1913.9 +642.7 +50.6 50.6 289.0 299.0 +10.0 +3.5 33.6 14.0 -19.6 -58.3 58 3 KelaK l ntan 929.7 1128.5 +198.8 +21.4 21.4 221.8 239.5 +17.7 +7.9 15.4 10.9 -4.5 -29.2 29 2 Pahan P h g 633.6 684.6 +51.0 +8.0 8.0 198.5 208.4 +9.9 +4.9 24.5 16.6 -7.9 -32.2 32 2 Keda K d h 626.7 705.3 +78.3 +12.5 12.5 173.6 176.6 +3.0 +1.7 2.1 1.1 -1.0 -50 50 Joho J h r 591.7 538.2 -53.5 -9.0 9.0 187.3 180.0 -7.3 -3.9 13.3 5.2 -8.1 -60.9 60 9
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Sub-region Name Historical Maximum Monthly Precip (mm) Future Diff. (%) Historical Mean Monthly Precip P i (mm) Future Diff. (%) Historical Minimum Monthly Precip (mm) Future Diff. (%)

Klang 436.2 601.3 165.1 +37.8 37.8 190.1 182.3 -7.8 -4.1 12.8 5.9 -6.9 -53.9 53 9

Perak 722.9 767.8 +44.9 +6.21 6.21 192.9 199.4 +6.5 +3.4 9.0 4.1 -4.9 -54.4 54 4

RESULTS: Future River Flow
Table C is a summary of simulated monthly flows y y during the historical and future periods at the selected Peninsular Malaysia watershed. An increase in interannual and intraseasonal variability with increased hydrologic extremes are expected in Kelantan, Pahang, Terengganu and Perak. P k Increase in maximum monthly flows from 11% to 47% for all over Peninsular Malaysia Decrease in minimum monthly flows from 31% to 93% for Johor and Selangor.
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Summary of Historical And Future Monthly Flows (2025-2050)
River Historica l Future Diff. (%) Historica l Future F t Diff. (%) Historica l Future Diff. Diff (%) Klang 31.2 45.8 +14.6 +46.8 14.4 13.3 13 3 -1.1 -7.6 2.6 3.5 +0.9 +34.6 Selangor 107.9 108.5 +0.6 +0.6 40.7 37.5 37 5 -3.2 -7.9 7.1 0.5 -6.6 -93.0 Dungun 398.4 569.5 +171.1 +42.9 93.4 98.3 98 3 +4.9 +5.2 13.1 10.8 -2.3 -17.6 Kelantan 1535.1 1950.7 +415.6 +27.1 535.9 601.7 601 7 +65.8 +12.3 158.4 125.8 -32.6 -20.6 Pahang 1697.4 2176.6 +479.2 +28.2 669.6 718.1 718 1 +48.5 +7.2 156.3 122.7 -33.6 -21.5 Perak 523.7 578.2 +54.5 +10.4 286.4 299.7 299 7 +13.3 +4.6 183.6 139.2 -44.4 -24.2 Muda 307.4 340.0 +32.6 +10.6 105.6 104.0 104 0 -1.6 -1.5 25.3 5.3 -20 -79.1 Johor 82.7 94.0 +11.3 +13.7 32.7 31.8 31 8 -0.9 -2.8 9.8 6.8 -3 -30.6
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Maximum Monthly Flows (cms)

Mean Monthly M thl Flows (cms)

Minimum Monthly Flows (cms)

Vulnerability V lnerabilit

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National Vulnerability and Adaptation Plans
Formulating National Overarching Policies
Strategies for sustainable development despite climate changes Setting up cabinet committee and approval of National Policy on Climate Changes Prioritising in the light of limited resources, both human and financial

Incorporates x-cutting issues dealing with Climate Change
Inventories –WG1 Vulnerability and Adaptation – WG2 (essentially water related) Adaptation and Mitigation – WG3 (essentially energy related)

Secretariat is Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, working together with
Ministries of Science and Technology, Transport, WaterCommunication-Energy, International Trade, Agriculture, Finance, Prime Minister’s Department, and others Supported by Universities NGOs etc Universities,
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NC2: WG2 - Vulnerability and Adaptation
To undertake an assessment of potential impacts of climate change on several vulnerable sectors to formulate corresponding adaptation measures
7 vulnerable sectors (and sub-committees):
Agriculture (MARDI) A i lt Forestry (FDPM) Biodiversity (FRIM) Water resources (NAHRIM) Coastal and marine resources (DID) C t l d i Public health (MOH) Energy (PTM)

2 support groups under WG2
Climate Projections ( C (NAHRIM) - looks at climate projections studies carried ) out in Malaysia, based on available climate models and data. Socio-Economic Impacts and Responses (LESTARI, UKM) - looks at socioeconomic impact and responses from global warming and climate changes as e adaptation easu es well as adap a o measures.

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NC2 - WG2 (V&A)
Climate Projection NAHRIM
V&A WG Chair NAHRIM

Socio-Economic & Impacts Resources LESTARI - UKM

Agriculture MARDI

Coastal Resources JPS

Water Resources NAHRIM

Biodiversity FRIM

Forestry FRIM

Public Health IMR

Energy PTM

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WG II – Current Progress
PUBLIC HEALTH A second workshop on time series was carried out in EHRC from 30 July – 1 August where Prof Wong from Hong Kong University was invited to assist the researchers in their research on air pollution and temperature. We expect to finish it by the end of the year and it will be presented to Prof Wong when he makes his third visit. Another meeting is expected in this November, 2008. Compilation of databases on climate sensitive infectious diseases over the last 20 years completed completed. Preliminary vulnerability assessment of selected agriculture activities (rice, cocoa, oil palm, aquaculture and livestock) are in progress. For rice the impact will be assessed by using DSSAT crop model, and the analysis was started by collecting required soil and weather d i d il d h data, and analysing projected weather changes i selected d l i j d h h in l d rice growing areas (MADA, KADA and Seberang Perak). Meanwhile, general adaptation strategies from other countries were compiled and analysed, where possible the strategies can be used and applied under Malaysian environment. Preliminary report on rubber and li t k was completed. P li i t bb d livestock l t d Appointment of a consultant to carry out assessment of the climate change on Irrigation on selected irrigation areas and domestic water supply in Klang Valley. Initiation of assessment of the impact of climate change on groundwater by the p g g y Department of Mineral and Geosciences, as well as assessment on the hydrological changes by the Division of Hydrology, Department of Irrigation and Drainage. Finalization of modes of carrying out the assessment of the impact on river quality changes and hydropower supply – to determine the source for funding and personnel g y p pp y g p to carry out the study.
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AGRICULTURE

WATER RESOURCES

WG II – Current Progress
SOCIOECONOMIC Development of proposal on ‘Socio-Economic Impacts of Climate Change On Public Health’ for funding from Ministry of Higher Education Malaysia. Methodology approach on developing socio-economic scenarios for vulnerability and adaptation assessments. Satisfactorily achieve current JPSM RMK-9 projects related on WG2 V&A for forestry sector, includes Forest Rehabilitation and Conservation, Planting of y , , g Mangroves and Other Suitable Tree Species Along the Country’s Shoreline and Management of Water Catchments Forest have been undertaken by JPSM under RMK-9. NAHRIM Future Hydroclimate Database now available online. As of 27th NOV 2008, 59 users have registered and already accessing the hydroclimate projection at various location in Peninsular Malaysia Circulation of National Coastal Vulnerability report to sub-sector group members. FORESTRY

CLIMATE PROJECTION COASTAL & MARINE RESOURCES BIODIVERSITY ENERGY

Checklist for plant species that maybe vulnerable to climate change for Peninsular Malaysia has been compiled and can be submitted to the committee The V&A impact assessment for oil and gas and electricity sector is ready. The team will further refine the impact assessment. The team managed to establish a good networking with agencies from the transport sector. More agencies under MoT has been participated in the group. The team has been assisted by UKM for sociop p g p y economic analysis.
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Possible Climate Change Implication - 1 Immediate impact on water resources
Extreme events of floods and droughts, affect E t t f fl d dd ht ff t
Water supply Water quality Agricultural production Bio-diversity, etc

Melting Polar Ice will result in sea-level rise
Inundation of low lying areas
Potentially affecting coastlines and low riverine areas

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Possible Climate Change Implication -2 g p

Water Availability:
Collapse of water system leading to severe and long-term water shortage Water scarcity that retards progress on Millennium Development Goals and threatens food security Losses from reallocations of water among competing users Non-violent but costly conflict among competing water users Losses to water users from localized temporary localized, and manageable fluctuations in water availability Lack of quality water

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Possible Impacts as a result of stream flow extreme – lower low flows and higher high flows
Possibly are higher concentration of pollutants from varies sources – dilution would be lesser Retention of flow during these events will eventually result in environmental flows being scarified Impacts to aquatic life would be extremes – less tolerable species would be replaced by hardy species Biodiversity in rivers is expected to reduce Impacts to riparian areas vegetation would be expected due to lowering of ground water level Saline water intrusion would increase due to two reasons – saline water flow greater than fresh water flow and increase sea level rise Saline water intrusion would impact productivity of agriculture output – paddy, palm oil Fishes Fi h spawning cycle could b affected i l ld be ff t d
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Possible Climate Change Impact on Groundwater g p

The di t i Th direct impact of climate change on groundwater t f li t h d t resources - depends upon the change in the volume and distribution of groundwater recharge. The drier g g periods lead to the seasonal deficits in the moisture content of soils. Most likely impact on groundwater resources: Change in Recharge Change in Discharge Change in Storage

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Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture and Forestry
Agriculture
Increase in rainfall is bad for rubber but good for oil palm 273000 h rubber l d could b affected ha bb land ld be ff t d Rise in sea level could force abandoning low lying planted areas Decline of rice yields 10% for every 10C increase in temperature Decrease in rainfall would affect crop that need wet condition p

Forestry
Physiological process - up to 40% increase in biomass growth due to increase in photosynthesis processes Forest distribution/habitat Biodiversity - still uncertain

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Climate Change Impacts Coastal Resources Coastal Resources
Tidal Inundation
(a) Mangrove-fringed mudflats (b) Sandy shores - Insignificant as existing ground level is higher (c) Increased flooding - Reduced drainage efficiency of tidal control gates

Shoreline Erosion
(a) Sandy shoreline retreat - Insignificant (b) Mangrove loss - Vertical accretion rate able to keep pace Increased Wave Action – Insignificant Saline Intrusion - Unlikely to
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Geographic distribution of long-term linear trends in mean sea level ( G f (mm yr–1) for 19 to 2003 based 1) f 1955 on the past sea level reconstruction with tide gauges and altimetry data (from Church et al., 2004)
Figure 1. (Reproduced from Figure 5.16 of Bindoff et al. (2007)

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Climate Change Impacts in Public health g p
Vector-borne diseases tropics, sub-tropics to temperate zones Dengue – Increase in urban areas. High rainfall required for g g q high transmission. Malaria - Specific temperature & rainfall required for vector breeding. Increase in sea level & deforestation without proper and sound land use may lead to increased vector breeding ground. Viral diseases – Increase with increases in humidity & temperature. Can change from endemic to epidemic forms. E.g. J E Japanese encephalitis. h liti Water-borne diseases tropics and sub-tropics Bacterial – Escherichia coli, Vibrio cholera, Salmonella sp. Viral Hepatitis A P li Vi l – H titi A, Poliomyelitis. liti Protozoa – Giardia sp. Amoeba sp. Airborne diseases - Increase in particulate (PM10) concentrations, concentrations high temperatures and humidity cause/ aggravate conjunctivitis, bronchitis & asthma.
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Adaptation

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Adaptation Strategies in Stream Flow
Increasing base flow in rivers through
Rainwater harvesting by all community within catchment and release when q not required Retention ponds at higher location within catchment

Groundwater recharge techniques to supplement base flow
Small and low check dams in hill areas to reduce peak flow and increase base flow

Decrease uptake of river water (bigger flow in river)
Efficient use of water for agriculture

Improvement in irrigation efficiency
Domestic use need to be reduce and delivery efficient Industrial use to be reduced

Wider River buffer within coastal zone
To reduce salt water intrusion effect To improve river environment

Barrages
To prevent salt water intrusion and sea level surges

Reduction of pollution
Better treatment f waste water B tt t t t t t
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Adaptation St t i Ad t ti Strategies on Groundwater G d t
Increase monitoring of groundwater resource conditions with respect to climatologic changes Refine projections of climate change, consequences on groundwater supply and reliability Assess climate change effects on groundwater Study the combined effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide and increased temperature on groundwater resources Analyze the effect of sea level rise on delta salinity Improve interaction and coordination with other state, federal, and academic researchers

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Adaptation Strategies in Water Resources
Water Resources
Enlarging reservoir capacity Improving hydrological forecasting Promoting widespread use of groundwater Changing land use practices Demand side management for water resources Buffer zone for agriculture and forestry industries to minimize erosion and sedimentation

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Adaptation Strategies in Coastal Resources
Coastal Resources
Defend Accommodate Retreat e ea Counter attack Coastal land buyback Integrated coastal zone management

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Adaptation Strategies in Agriculture
Agriculture g
Develop plant varieties that are tolerant to high temperature and high water use efficiency Develop the means to maximize efficient usage of water and nutrient input Preserve PFRs and water catchments areas to ensure adequate water supply for agriculture Develop appropriate management practices for p -harvest handling p pp p g p postpost g Strengthen the integrated pest management and biocontrol procedures to deal with increase incidences of pests and diseases Conduct research on impact of environment on the physiology of animals to cope with the changes and perform technically Establish semi-controlled and controlled plant and animal housing semiImplement microclimatic modification through landscaping and agroagroforestry y
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Adaptation Strategies in Forestry
Forestry
Forest plantation establishment National seed bank collection Promotion of greater use of timber Reduction of wastage in forest harvesting and increased efficiency of wood processing Strengthen and integrate conservation of protected areas

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Adaptation Strategies in Energy Sector
In oil and gas sector
Raise offshore platform Built retaining wall/dredging Install water pump Upgrade cooling system

In electricity sector
Air intake cooling Precipitation enhancement Wave break water Relocation of power plant
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Capacity Building Capacit B ilding

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Various sectors related to water
Technical
Can concurrently be identified with identification of vulnerability and impact assessment Include also the need to update hydrological/hydraulics data bases/information for future scenarios as compared to historical extreme weather conditions and consequently Possible modification in operations and maintenance and design rehabilitation

Planning and Policy g y
There is a need to capacity-built planners, macro and micro ie @ national, state and basin levels so that project planning can incorporate impacts from climate changes to ensure continued sustainable d t i bl development l t policy decision makers, to ensure support for project proposals as well as provision of adequate funding

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What Next

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From: RK Pachauri el, “Climate Change 2007-Synthesis Report”, IPCC

WAY FORWARD
Pool our Resources
Being part of the NC2 team showed us the benefit of team work and networking
Share our strength and strengthen our weaknesses Share the resources, expertise and finance, data & information Understand that a positive initiative in one sector, need not be so for another sector
WG2 of NC2 had 7+2 subcommittees WKHCCA will have the support of the 9 subcommittees

Build alliances
across the board; across expert areas; across levels of subsidiarity– from decision makers to communities; across economic activities; across administrative boundaries; private/public sectors partnerships, international partnerships, etc

Reaching out
Advocacy and awareness: preschools, primary, t ti Ad d h l i tertiary, pensioners i Media, School curriculum, product branding, etc

Capacity building
Training, formal and informal, technical and non-technical non technical Demonstration projects of best practices
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THE WATER CYCLE
NAHRIM CC Projection has proceeded from the normal output of temp and rainfall, to include surface runoff/stream flow (water infrastructure design), design) evapotranspiration & soil water storage (agriculture) and local sea level rise (coastal settlement, etc)
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Potential Regional Downscaling

The modeling domains of Southeast Asia; D01 denotes the large outer domain, delineated by g g g red lines; D02 is the intermediate domain, delineated by the large rectangular region that is bounded by blue lines; the domains D03, D04, D05 and D06 are the inner modeling domains where the modeling studies will be carried out at 12km grid resolution.
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Land cover map (GLCC) over the Southeast Asia region and proposed computational domains
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Digital Elevation Model (GTOPO30) over the Southeast Asia Region
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FAO soil map over the Southeast Asia region. The color indicates soil p map units
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CC Projections at Regional level
Provide first cut of CC Projection for countries in the region The Th results obtained from such studies, will help lt bt i d f h t di ill h l governments in
determining the potential long term climate hydrologic impacts of global warming on the hydrologic regime and water resources Identifying vulnerabilities from the impact of climate change, extreme weather conditions Preparing and implementing adaptation plans P i di l i d i l

The results will provide a scientific basis in formulating any policy or adaptive measures related to climate change Countries may use it downscale to finer

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Thank You
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