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The Global Mobile Market Fact Book 2008
Published by telecomsmarketresearch.com In association with Buddecomm
© BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. 2008
GSM & CDMA 3G Handsets Introduction ARPU Emerging Markets MVNOs Pre-Paid Spectrum Termination Rates Bluetooth & UWB Mobile Data Regional Markets Europe Europe – Balkans and South East Europe Europe - Baltic countries Europe – Central Europe Europe - France and Switzerland Europe - Germany and Austria Europe - Italy and Malta Europe - Russia, Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine Europe - Scandinavia Europe - Spain and Portugal Europe - United Kingdom and Ireland Africa: Africa – Central and Eastern Regions Africa – Lesotho, South Africa and Swaziland Africa – Northern Regions Africa – Southern Region and Indian Ocean Islands Africa – Western Region Asia-Pacific – Hong Kong and Macau Asia-Pacific – Indonesia and Timor Leste Asia-Pacific - Japan Asia-Pacific – Malaysia and Philippines Asia-Pacific – Myanmar and Thailand Asia-Pacific – North and South Korea Asia-Pacific - South Pacific Islands Asia-Pacific - Taiwan Asia-Pacific - China Asia-Pacific - Australia Asia-Pacific - New Zealand: North America Latin America Latin America – Andean Bloc Latin America – Central America Latin America – Eastern Nations Latin America – Mexico and the Caribbean Latin America – Southern Cone Middle East – Gulf Middle East – Mediterranean and Levant Countries
3G:.................................................................... 4 Africa – Central and Eastern Regions ....... 21 Africa – Lesotho, South Africa and Swaziland .................................................. 23 Africa – Northern Regions........................... 24 Africa – Southern Region and Indian Ocean Islands ....................................................... 27 Africa – Western Region.............................. 29 AFRICA: ......................................................... 20 ARPU: .............................................................. 5 Asia-Pacific - Australia ................................ 55 Asia-Pacific – Hong Kong and Macau ....... 43 Asia-Pacific – Indonesia and Timor Leste. 44 Asia-Pacific - Japan ..................................... 46 Asia-Pacific – Malaysia and Philippines.... 48 Asia-Pacific – Myanmar and Thailand ....... 50 Asia-Pacific - New Zealand: ........................ 57 Asia-Pacific – North and South Korea ....... 52 Asia-Pacific - South Pacific Islands: .......... 54 Asia-Pacific - Taiwan.................................... 53 Asia-Pacific: China....................................... 41 Bluetooth & UWB: .......................................... 6 Disclaimer and Legal Notices ....................... 3 Emerging Markets: ......................................... 5 Europe – Balkans and South East Europe .. 9 Europe - Baltic countries............................. 12 Europe – Central Europe ............................... 9 Europe - France and Switzerland ............... 13
Europe - Germany and Austria ...................14 Europe - Italy and Malta ...............................15 Europe - Russia, Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine.......................................................16 Europe - Scandinavia ...................................17 Europe - Spain and Portugal .......................18 Europe - United Kingdom and Ireland........19 Europe: ............................................................7 GSM & CDMA: .................................................4 Handsets:.........................................................4 Introduction:....................................................4 Latin America – Andean Bloc......................40 Latin America – Central America ................37 Latin America – Eastern Nations ................36 Latin America – Mexico and the Caribbean ....................................................................38 Latin America – Southern Cone..................39 Latin America:...............................................35 Middle East – Gulf ........................................58 Middle East – Mediterranean and Levant Countries ...................................................59 Mobile Data: ....................................................6 MVNOs: ............................................................5 North America:..............................................33 Pre-Paid: ..........................................................5 Regional Markets:...........................................7 Spectrum: ........................................................5 Termination Rates: .........................................6
© BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. 2008
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Published 1st. September 2008. Copyright 2008
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2007 saw a steadier growth of around 14%. as it becomes increasingly important for mobile operators to begin to tap into these new revenue streams.4 The Global Mobile Market Fact Book 2008 Introduction: While it still too early to claim a turnaround it is clear that the mobile industry is undergoing profound changes. designed so that Chinese operators can stake their share in the 3G mobile market. Internet media companies and private equity companies becoming involved in this market. information on TDMA and China’s TD-SCDMA standard. Handsets: In 2008 Nokia retains its dominant position in terms of market share and in 2007 Samsung finally overtook Motorola for second place on a global scale. 2008 . the equivalent of over 2. the focus of the CDMA camp has turned to 3G which includes the technologies that bridge the gap to 3G (CDMA2000) and its 3G successor CDMA2000 1x EV-DO. but started to recover in early 2004.6 billion users. and the TD-SCDMA standard. This market share is expected to grow even more due to increasing mobile penetration in the developing markets and the uptake of 3G around the world. Growth slowed markedly following the industry downturn in 2001. With GSM being the leader in terms of 2G. This report provides an overview of the CDMA family. The saturated developed markets are forcing the industry to find news revenue streams and we are now also see other organisations such as media companies. The main objective of 3G systems is to provide a more robust network with a range of data and multimedia services. The mobile handset market has grown rapidly. the business case for 3G is beginning to build and most 3G deployments now rollout smoothly in contrast to the many problems experienced in early years. In this report BuddeComm provides an overview and analyses of 3G market developments. after more than five years of waiting. China’s. See ‘2007 Mobile Communications and Mobile Data Technologies Handbook’ for further information. See Global Mobile Communications . In 2008 GSM technologies account for around 85% of the world’s digital mobile phones. Either the mobile industry or the IT/Internet industry is going to be the winner here. designed so that Chinese operators can stake their share in the 3G mobile market. GSM & CDMA: With GSM being the leader in terms of 2G. including the evolution of 3G to 4G. and BuddeComm believes it will be difficult for the mobile industry to stay in the lead. with rapid growth during that year aided by the development of new equipment such as camera phones. Trends and Forecasts for further information. We are now are finally seeing a more rapid rollout of 3G services. content providers. Finally. 3G: In 2008 there are close to 300 million subscribers to 3G technologies worldwide. The report also includes subscriber statistics and forecasts and a brief case study on one of the more visible companies in the 3G market – Hutchison with its 3 service. This can be attributed to saturation in the developed © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. While in 2006 overall handset sales worldwide were strong due to the growing demand from emerging markets such as China and India. the focus of the CDMA camp has turned to 3G which includes the technologies that bridge the gap to 3G (CDMA2000) and its 3G successor CDMA2000 1x EV-DO. since there are not many other growth markets open to them.Statistics.
overall mobile ARPU rates have remained fairly steady due to the increased use in mobile data services. This report provides statistics and forecasts for mobile handsets. with many of the less mature regions around the world showing significant growth and operators around the world are certainly taking note. it was only possible to use the UHF band and below. which has had somewhat of a balancing out effect. particularly if they are tied in to minimum contracts of one. two or even three years. Many emerging markets. but has been successful in only a few countries around the world. Spectrum auctions have become an increasingly popular way of assigning spectrum licences throughout the world. However in some markets.5 markets which is starting to balance out the booming growth we have observed in developing regions. 2008 . with the USA holding one of its largest auctions ever in 2006. markets with strong competition have seen a considerable drop in mobile call charges. The MVNO model has been around for a number of years. such as Asia Pacific still have room for more growth ahead. Pre-Paid: Avoiding the monthly fee has always been – and still is – a very successful way to broaden the appeal of mobile services. despite saturated developed markets. sales and revenue. Some MVNOs are now introducing new business models. Spectrum: Before 1990. who has expressed interest in acquiring spectrum. such as the launch of content-orientated MVNOs in the US. but not until 2015. however on the whole all regions have experienced declines in ARPU over the past few years. allowing for major advances in technology and service. particularly outside the business market. Current and historical market share for the top handset suppliers is also included. Many potential subscribers. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. thereby limiting the speed of information transfer. including growth. are simply not prepared to pay a monthly fee for a service that they feel they may use only occasionally. The report also provides information on key trends and developments in the industry. ARPU: Mobile ARPU levels differ widely between the regions of the world. In Europe and other parts of the world the band 790-862MHz has been allocated to mobile telecommunication services. There are now around 3 billion mobile subscribers worldwide and some of the more mature markets have over 100% penetration. Towards the end of 2007. Emerging Markets: The emerging markets are making their mark on the mobile sector. Auctions took place in 2008. The prepaid model has now taken off around the world and is particularly popular in developing markets. such as the US. This has assisted in the number of subscribers worldwide continuing to grow. ARPU from mobile voice services have been particularly affected by cuts to tariff rates and the trend towards voice-data substitution. Since then governments have released more of the high frequency spectra. MVNOs: An MVNO is a mobile service provider that provides mobile services independently from the operator that is supplying the network. the USA was granted the ability at the World Radio Communications Conference (WRC-07) to auction off the 700MHz frequency to new service providers such as Google. As would be expected.
where mobile phones are being viewed as an opportunity to reach the masses that would not otherwise use m-payment or mbanking services. This report includes information on trends. including telecommunications. However while there are good applications. finance. Focus has also turned to the developing markets. Competition will continue to increase as more participants enter the mobile market. some manufacturers are shipping Ultra-Wideband enabled laptop computers. as well as for end-users. International roaming charges are finally beginning to drop due to both this competition and the introduction of regulations/price capping. 2008 .6 Termination Rates: Competition continues to increase in the telecommunications sector because users of all forms of technologies continues to grow. This applies to the mobile industry. It will work best in those areas where it can emphasise the core virtue of mobile networks – convenience. This is beginning to change as banks and merchants are now collaborating with mobile operators. statistics and analysis for the mcommerce sector. Mobile Data: Mobile commerce is potentially important for a wide range of industries. especially in personal communications. Work still continues today to combine the strengths of both Bluetooth and Ultra-Wideband technologies. retail and the media. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. and the convergence of fixed and mobile continues. with high-speed Bluetooth one of the key areas of focus (integrating Wi-Fi and/or Ultra–Wideband technology). Bluetooth wireless technology continues to be widely adopted throughout the telecommunications. as well as such diverse areas as automotive and health care. where mobile subscribers have more than doubled in the last five years or so. Despite the absence of a global standard. including m-payments and m-banking. reaching almost all sectors of the economy. Bluetooth & UWB: In 2008 further developments to the Bluetooth technology are taking place. Applications around contactless cards using Near Field Communications are also being developed and trialled around the world. IT. the technologies and business models to date have not been well suited to mass market applications. IT and home entertainment industries.
IPTV packages of more than 100 channels have also become standard offers to attract and retain customers. including exchanges and Main Distribution Frames. 2008 . Italy. either through mobile operators moving into the broadband arena or through established triple play telcos setting up as MVNOs. though countries such as Italy have also made progress following government subsidies for set-top boxes. companies can deliver innovative services which will in turn feed demand for more content. stimulated by continuing investments in the mobile and broadband sectors. Structural separation will be at the forefront in a number of markets in 2008. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. For further information. The review of the European Union’s New Regulatory Framework (NRF) will create further changes in the sector during 2008 and 2009. have aimed to ensure that new entrants continue to have competitive access to NGNs following the closure of legacy networks. The UK is the market leader for digital TV penetration. Faster and more widespread broadband networks have expanded the reach of triple play to a greater proportion of the population. Moves by national regulators. With this infrastructure in place. In addition. moving infrastructure to an IP packet-based. most operators have upgraded existing networks to higher-capacity HSDPA to take advantage of mobile data offerings. Fixed-voice traffic and revenue continues to fall as mobile substitution and. take hold among consumers. Other key developments related to further progress towards NGNs. making the effective deployment of digital media commercially viable. either through incumbents themselves (Ireland) or through government and regulatory pressure (Sweden. and The Netherlands). full service typology. Sweden was one of the first to complete digital switchover. and local content providers will also profit. see Western European Mobile Communications Convergence In conjunction with investments in faster broadband networks. particularly in the Netherlands. National incumbents have a good starting position. since they dominate the infrastructure industry. Further investment in the cable sector is expected to the end of the decade following the consolidation of cable operators in key markets (the UK. Clearly the long-term winners will be those players who are first to offer the consumer triple play on favourable terms. Germany. in 2008 a greater emphasis will be placed on migrating consumers to 3G services and on developing content to stimulate higher-ARPU use among consumers. In the UK some parts of the country were switched over to BT’s 21CN during 2007. Billions of Euro will be invested in this sector in coming years. Operators have thus focussed on data-rich applications such as mobile TV and Video-onDemand. 2007 saw an increasing emphasis on triple play and quad play services. in October 2007. followed by the Netherlands. including proposals for a single EU telecoms regulator and measures to force structural separation on incumbents in a bid to increase competition. Europe continues to be a prime testing ground for emerging technologies and new business models incorporating a growing range of services. while most regions will be progressively migrated to the network in 2008 and 2009.7 Regional Markets: Europe: The European telecom market in 2007 showed a vibrancy lacking in previous years. Some markets have also seen the first successful quad-play offers. the European Commission has focussed on a range of policies which will have far reaching implications for incumbents in coming years. to a lesser extent VoIP. The market for digital TV has also grown rapidly. Denmark). principally driven by municipal involvement in providing local open-access networks. The legacy copper networks continued to be supplemented by substantial cable and fibre network deployments during 2007. A substantial increase in fibre deployments is also expected in 2008-09. While there was little further mobile network construction. This development will be further stimulated in 2008 and coming years as network operators consolidate their competitive position through extensive agreements with content providers. In conjunction with these investments.
notably H3. Operators have successfully focused on migrating subscribers to 3G. the proportion of data revenue to total revenue will steadily increase: data ARPU has been resilient despite promotions lowering the price of SMS services. a move which promises much scope for innovative services in coming years. Many countries are assigning for mobile use spectrum released by digital switchover. Europe remains an important laboratory for emerging mobile technologies such as Enhanced Data for GSM Evolution and High-Speed Downlink Packet Access. 2008 . Flat-rate data plans are beginning to take hold among operators. Mobile communications By early 2008 about 25 of the region’s markets had exceeded 100% mobile penetration. See Western European Convergence Market for further information. which alone can account for up to 90% of total data revenue. Moving further into 2008 and 2009. Regulatory controls and increasing competition among network providers and from a growing number of MVNOs has lead to falling ARPU for most operators. while GSM growth has been flat or minimal. launching the world’s first commercial 3G network in late 2007.8 though cable network operators also have a large subscriber base and many have been at the forefront in developing new strategies to encourage digital media. Countries such as Finland are in the forefront of utilising 900MHz spectrum for 3G. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. and in coming years this simple business model should encourage greater use of 3G services and dispel consumer concern over high costs. See Western European Mobile Communications for further information.
Mobile penetration growth is levelling off in some countries. 2008 . FttH/FttB availability is expanding in all five countries. Commercial DVB-T services are well into deployment. both in size and wealth: Slovenia’s GDP per capita is more than double that of Poland’s although Poland’s population is 19 times that of Slovenia. EU funding has improved accessibility to e-government services and broadband Internet in underserved areas. In response cable operators continue to poach fixed-line voice subscribers from the incumbent telcos. WiMAX) operators. mobile network operators. Numerous fixed-line networks in the region are undergoing modernisation at a fortunate time. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. offered over now widely-available EDGE/WCDMA/HSDPA networks and posing significant challenges for existing wireless broadband (ie. Montenegro and Serbia (including Kosovo) and the three largest countries in the region: Greece. indicative of mature markets. Bosnia-Herzegovina. a trend that is expected to continue moving into 2009. with deployments by all manner of different players in the telecoms market – municipal governments. fixed-line alternative operators as well as incumbents. Emerging on the back of growing broadband penetration is the Internet economy. Croatia. Service providers in such markets are focused on increasing ARPU levels through promoting 3G/HSDPA mobile broadband services and higher-spending postpaid plans to prepaid users. See Europe . Highlights: Benefits of regulatory measures are becoming evident – the cost of unbundled local loops and shared access loops fell during 2007 in Slovakia and Slovenia while Hungary and Slovenia offer ULLs at prices below the average of the 27 EU member nations. Future fixed-line broadband growth may be constrained by the falling number of fixed lines in service. Bulgaria and Romania. Cyprus. Aggressively priced mobile broadband access with prepaid data bundles are available in all these countries. as incumbents and telecom operators acquire additional content and improve service offerings. IPTV take up is on the rise in all five countries. Macedonia. with additional funding until at least 2013. Impacting on the telecoms market is EU-mandated competition. given that numerous countries in the region had low fixed-line penetration levels to begin with. Europe – Balkans and South East Europe This covers Albania. Economic development is transforming telecoms markets within this region as international investment drives infrastructure deployments and service rollouts. Low broadband penetration levels are rising at extraordinary rates. mirroring growth rates recorded in Central Eastern Europe during that region’s initial broadband growth period in 2004/05. the market in each one varies significantly. Mobile and Broadband in Central Europe for further information. with NGNs and advanced wireless broadband technologies such as WiMAX widely available.Telecoms. DVB-H developments/trials are underway in Czech Republic. with data showing rises in the proportion of businesses or individuals accessing e-government services as well as businesses and individuals purchasing online.9 Europe – Central Europe While all are EU countries. Hungary and Poland. decreasing prices and leading to the introduction of new services by competing operators and incumbents alike. with multiplexes launched or about to be launched in all five countries.
see chapter 2. Numerous WiMAX operators have started operations. A third mobile network operator has launched services in Serbia while a second approved operator is to launch services in Kosovo. A sizeable cable TV sector also exists. with plans to increase DVB-H coverage to 80% by 2008. The country’s nascent broadband sector will provide considerable opportunities in coming years. while Telekom Austria launched two mobile network operators in Serbia and Montenegro during 2007. Macedonia’s first alternative fixed-line operator launched services in January 2007. WiMAX licences were awarded in Montenegro in February 2007 to two alternative operators and a mobile network operator. see chapter 5.Telecoms. page 12. FttH services and Digital Video BroadcastingHandheld (DVB-H) services are available. See Europe . Bosnia-Herzegovina’s government is preparing to privatise incumbent operator BH Telecom. Bulgaria is also witnessing new infrastructure rollouts.2007 and HSDPA services are also available. Year-on-year increasing GPRS usage growth rates suggest the product has reached critical mass and is gaining widespread market acceptance. with incumbent RomTelecom and a number of now well-established competitors modernising and upgrading infrastructure to expand availability of existing services and prepare for the introduction of new ones. 2008 . Bosnia-Herzegovina. During 2006 ADSL subscriber levels grew by 358% while cable broadband subscribers grew by 150%. For more information. page 85. ADSL subscriber numbers grew by 50% in the first six months on 2007 while 3G services were launched by both of the country’s established mobile network operators. with FttH and WiMAX alternative operators launching services. Romania has achieved the most success immediately following liberalisation. 3G services were launched by all three Serbian mobile operators during 2006 . © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. The country already boasts one of the world’s largest WiFi mesh networks providing 95% coverage. from which a new regional player is emerging after M&A activity in the sector. which will assist the country’s main competing ADSL service provider that has launched ADSL2+ based triple play services. FttH services have been launched in Croatia. Mobile and Broadband in Balkans and South East Europe for further information. Opportunities in the region’s emerging markets continues to attract investment from established European telecom players: Slovenia Telecom acquired the largest competing ISPs in Albania.10 Both Bulgaria and Romania opened their markets as a result of EU ascension in 2007 and transposed the EU’s communications regulatory framework into national law. with local loops unbundled for the first time. Key Highlights Establishment of a competing fibre backbone wholesale carrier in Albania has allowed a number of broadband ISPs to flourish. is paving the way for competing ADSL2+ services. Regulatory reforms designed to ensure a competitive wholesale market are bearing fruit in Cyprus. evident from rapidly rising number of unbundled and shared local loops. Broadband subscriber numbers grew by 194% during 2006 with competing WiMAX services to be launched during 2008. including a mobile network operator that also offers HSDPA mobile broadband. Greece’s growing wholesale market. Broadband subscriber levels are increasing and accounting for a growing percentage of total Internet users. partly through the size of the market and the reach of both existing and new alternative infrastructure such as cable and FttH. For more information. Macedonia and Kosovo. Triple play services have been launched by a competing operator in Kosovo.
together accounting for 66% of all broadband users.000 8.168.574. The largest operator offers 85% population coverage. Balkans and South East Europe .3% 70.9% 83.951. with Serbia. each capturing an equal share of the fixed-line market through triple play offerings.7% 109. which commenced offering LLU-based ADSL services in October 2007.000 18.6% for Serbia and 39.226. with the market’s growth potential attracting unlikely players such as mobile network operator Vodafone.000 14. opening up a new market to complement the saturated mobile voice market. many of which are likely to consolidate as competition from ADSL provider RomTelecom intensifies.922.000 1. the largest of which has expanded into Macedonia.580. with the combined number of shared access/unbundled loops increasing 918% in the year to June 2007.4% 77. This is RCS&RDS’ first foray as a mobile network operator and Zapp’s second as it already operates a 1x EV-DO network capable of 3G speeds. 2008 .000 1.5% for Kosovo © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. Cable and LAN are the two most popular broadband access methods in Romania. RCS&RDS and CDMA mobile operator Zapp have both been awarded Romania’s third and fourth 3G / WCDMA licences.0% 132. enabling the operator to take advantage of consumers’ appetite for services and content. The number of LLU-based ADSL/ADSL2+ service providers is increasing in Greece.0% 101. M&A activity in Bulgaria’s cable market has reduced the number of significant operators to two. WiMAX services in Bulgaria have been rapidly launched by at least four competing alternative operators. RCS&RDS has rolled out FttB networks in 15 cities.884.8%* (Source: BuddeComm based on ITU and Global Mobile data) Note: * = Penetration was 86.000 during 2008.11 RCS&RDS and UPC have emerged as Romania’s premier alternative operators.453. LAN broadband is available from a large number of micro ISPs.000 4. Traditionally a cable TV operator.000 1.6% 118. Regulatory reforms designed to ensure a competitive wholesale market are bearing fruit in Greece.March 2007 Country Albania BosniaHerzegovina Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Greece Macedonia Montenegro Romania Serbia Subscribers 1. Romanian cable operators are well positioned to offer triple play services as cable TV household penetration is the third highest in the EU behind Belgium and Holland.000 Penetration 52.000 7. with plans to expand further into the Balkans.9% 127.670.mobile subscribers and penetration . All three mobile network operators in Bulgaria have launched 3G services. Price competition of 3G data services will encourage promotion and development of affordable and desirable mobile content.000 714. with plans to extend coverage to all cities with a population in excess of 50. Albania and Turkey likely target markets.4% 43.
000 Lithuania 4. Broadband accounts for nearly all Internet connections in each country. It is the only Eastern European country with broadband penetration above the EU average. which are characterised by relatively high broadband and mobile penetration.000 (Source: BuddeComm) Penetration 118% 102% 134% Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year. Latvia and Lithuania. One Latvian mobile operator estimates that 30% of all laptops in Latvia will be connected to mobile broadband services during 2008. All three incumbents have managed to maintain or grow revenue despite losing market share to competing operators in traditional fixed-line voice markets.12 Europe .Baltic countries The Baltics consist of Estonia. with dial-up almost completely disappearing. Lithuania’s incumbent has embarked on a FttX rollout drive which entails deploying infrastructure in the country’s five largest cities.March 2007 Country Mobile Subscribers Estonia 1. which launched MPEG-4 based services in April 2007. Healthy infrastructure-based competition in the broadband market is evident as ADSL accounts for less than 50% of total broadband connections in all three countries. Lithuania’s incumbent has also aggressively rolled out WiFi hotspots as part of its target of 20.Telecoms. Despite widespread availability of ADSL and introduction of ADSL2+.558. Advanced HSDPA services are available in all three countries.000 WiFi hotspots by 2010.795. Take up has been the most successful in Latvia. Estonia dominates Eastern Europe in broadband penetration and Internet economy development. For further information. Internet banking is undertaken by half of the population while the entire voting population is able to vote online. Mobile and Broadband in Baltic countries Mobile subscribers and penetration in the Baltic countries . see Europe . accounting for 73% of all Internet subscribers. Mobile Internet access via WAP is very high in Lithuania. with competition leading to the introduction of affordable mobile broadband access for the mass market. Cable is the leading competing broadband platform in all three countries while FttH/FttB accounts for approximately 15% of total broadband connections in Estonia and Lithuania. IPTV has been launched by incumbents in all three countries. Large scale or nationwide WiMAX deployments are underway or have been completed in Estonia and Lithuania. 3G-based mobile broadband access services with affordable pricing and generous data bundles (varying from 1Gb a month to unlimited) are available in all three countries. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. the first such country in the world. 2008 . Growing ADSL and IPTV uptake has contributed to their success although they face increasing competition from the region’s widely accessible cable TV network operators. providing alternative last-mile access in urban areas or extending access networks into rural areas.000 Latvia 2.303. Future broadband subscriber growth will be driven predominantly by first time subscribers rather than migrations from dial-up.
growth is increasing steadily and may reach 17% of the market by 2010. Government restrictions on Swisscom’s ability to expand internationally were lifted in 2007. France’s mobile market is facing increasing competition from a growing number of MVNOs. and the provision of free national calls has become standard as operators look for the optimum portfolio of offers to secure customer stickiness. The incumbent operator France Telecom has a number of fixed-line and mobile interests sweeping across Europe and it is at the forefront of emerging convergent business models focussed on triple and quad play offerings. Although the 2. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. DTTV was available to 85% of the French population by mid-2007. By the end of 2008 the first national digital transmitter network should be completed. In addition. The strategy has led to France being a global leader in IPTV. a 250% year-on-year increase. France Telecom has progressed with its all-IP NeXT strategy. For further information see Europe . meaning that competitors will not have automatic access to it. VoIP is also very popular. while legislation making the provision of broadband a Universal Service Obligation will dramatically increase broadband availability to outlying rural areas. with the result that the company can now broaden its horizons. accounting for more than half of all IPTV subscribers in Europe in 2007. Analogue TV transmissions were scheduled to close in 2010. 2008 . By January 2007 there were over 6. and penetration for digital TV as a whole stood at about 40%. Switzerland’s smaller telecom market has excellent broadband and mobile services despite topographical challenges.13 Europe . France Telecom and Free (Iliad) competing for customers by offering an ever expanding range of channels coupled with Video-on-Demand services.France and Switzerland France’s large and affluent population has propelled the country’s telecom market to the first tier in Europe. Mobile and Broadband in France and Switzerland Key Highlights France remains Europe’s leading market for IPTV services. with only the canton of Oberwallis to switch over in February 2008. Domestically. Its aggressive moves into central European markets and its purchase of Italy’s leading fibre operator FASTWEB in 2007 are indicative of how the company plans to compete with other major players on the international stage.825 million DTTV STBs sold or leased in France. making it possible to receive DVB-T signals throughout Switzerland. This may protect Swisscom’s investment in the short term but the European Commission may oblige competitor access to promote competition. Swisscom’s hybrid fibre/VDSL infrastructure being rolled out to most cities by 2008 is exempted from LLU legislation.1 million MVNO subscribers in September 2007 represented only 4% of the overall subscriber base. and has become the first country in Europe to make broadband access a universal service. upgrading its infrastructure to cope with increasing consumer demand for high-bandwidth applications. Growth in the Swiss broadband market has continued strongly. Digital TV take-up has progressed strongly. Switchover in the German speaking parts of the country was completed in November 2007.Telecoms. Digital switchover in Switzerland has progressed well. with the main service providers neuf Cegetel. France is one of the top European countries for fibre deployment.
Germany’s broadband subscriber base continued to develop well in 2007. Austria’s telecom market is one of the smallest in the European Union. Mobile and Broadband in Germany and Austria Key Highlights Germany’s digital TV market grew strongly in 2007 with a number of regions switching from analogue transmission. and have promoted cheaper data rates to stimulate consumer take-up of high-bandwidth services. 2008 . This report presents an overview of the telecom markets in these two important countries. Triple play remains a developing market in Germany. The €3 billion all-IP Next Generation Network forms a key strategic platform. being built by Deutsche Telekom’s T-Systems division. Deutsche Telekom’s fibre/VDSL network. reaching more than 20 major cities by the end of 2007. one of the largest undertakings in Europe. together with the key regulatory measures which affect competition and investment. In addition to increased investment in cable network upgrades. and assesses the latest developments in advanced services such as mobile TV and HSDPA. yet its advanced and progressive infrastructure has placed its providers in an excellent position to exploit opportunities in central and eastern Europe. HanseNet and NetCologne. is one of Europe’s major companies and one of the largest telcos. while telcos have made effective use of network sharing opportunities and operating synergies. VoIP and VoD. had gone live in 22 cities by the end of 2007. Operators have invested heavily in upgrading networks with HSDPA technology. reached 64 million by the end of the year. delivering the required bandwidth. highlighting technological developments and the emergence of media convergence and triple play offerings. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. Germany has Europe’s largest telecom market. the regulatory environment and consumer demand. mobile and digital TV sectors. With more than ten providers offering services on a single platform.14 Europe . growth in 2008 is expected to be particularly strong. but consumer take-up accelerated strongly in 2007. The important broadband market is assessed. the DSL network of Deutsche Telekom will provide 50Mb/s to most of the country be the end of the decade. The report provides essential statistics covering the broadband. Austria’s topography encouraged the early development of cable networks which have been upgraded to provide a sound platform for triple play services such as iTV. It also examines the product offerings for the mobile sector. spurred by the incumbent’s increasing coverage of its 50Mb/s service and by the successful business models of municipally owned and private network operators such as QSC. For further information see Europe . The country’s broadband sector will provide considerable opportunities in coming years. while digital take-up approached 20%. supported by an affluent and tech-savvy population of more than 82 million. including an assessment of sector liberalisation and privatisation. Deutsche Telekom has continued to expand its national hybrid fibre and VDSL infrastructure. The mobile markets in Germany and Austria remain fiercely competitive. Deutsche Telekom. with a growing number of MVNOs battling for customers. enabling the company to take advantage of consumers’ appetite for services and content.Telecoms. together with forecasts for broadband growth to 2017 based on factors such as network investment. The potential audience of the digital network. The incumbent.Germany and Austria Germany and Austria enjoy a common language and border. partly through the size of the market and partly through investments in network upgrades which will encourage a range of IP-delivered services.
Vodafone launched 3G in 2007. and soon afterwards reduced tariffs to make services more affordable to a wider range of users. Mid-year coverage was extended to most major settlements. The digital TV and broadband sectors have also progressed well. Mobile and Broadband in Italy and Malta for further information. GO Mobile launched its HSDPA network in early 2007. The incumbent was rebranded as GO in 2007. Malta has Europe’s smallest telecom market but does not lag behind in technological developments. Continued growth in coming years will be supported by the propensity to own multiple SIMs and by the popularity of emerging mobile data services. and while GO is currently the island’s only quad play provider. representing about 50% of the market. broadband and DTTV. Key Highlights Malta has kept abreast with the rest of Europe in the digital TV sector. and its new owners have invested in infrastructure upgrades.15 Although Germany has a fragmented cable market the sector underwent further consolidation in 2007. The country has a few major cablecos which can take advantage of scale to invest in network upgrades and so take compete effectively with ubiquitous DSL. Together with upgraded ADSL2+ networks. Europe . Italy’s triple play development remains one of the strongest in Europe. offering fixed voice. which will make the cableco the island’s second quad-play operator and providing greater competition against GO. the highest proportion in Europe. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. with TV services available to 95% of the population. page 1. see chapter 1. and will provide a strong foundation for IPTV. Malta’s third 3G operator was licensed August 2007. FASTWEB is one of Europe’s leading fibre players. and continued to mature in 2007 on the back of ADSL2+ and fibre roll-outs. bringing Malta in line with the rest of Europe in this important market. supported by a large population keen to adopt new services. investing €3 billion in infrastructure by 2010 to reach 11. mobile. with KDG expanding its presence in eight states in October. Take-up of 3G has reached almost 24% of total subscribers by mid-2007. See Europe . GO is a quad play service provider. the widening fibre footprint has boosted popular take-up of triple play services. with companies such as FASTWEB being among the top tier in Europe.4 million potential customers.Italy and Malta Italy’s mobile market is among the more dynamic in Europe. Network roll-out is being funded by Melita Cable. Italy’s mobile market is among the most competitive in Europe. Melita Cable and Vodafone both have ambitions to compete with full bundled services. By the end of 2007 there were three 3G licensees. VoD and VoIP in coming years.Telecoms. 2008 . Italy also has one of the most advanced fibre infrastructures. For the country overview.
2008 . Moldova and Ukraine Rapid modernisation and development is transforming the region as alternative operators deploy alternative infrastructure and launch competing services. some of which possessed the country’s fastest mobile broadband networks. A competing operator has executed a wellthought strategy by deploying a GSM-based unlicensed mobile access network in conjunction with a nationwide WiMAX network.3% respectively. FttH and WiMAX to offer new services or cost-effectively expand availability of existing ones. ADSL services are widely available. which are now tasked with migrating millions of GSM users to 3G platforms to entice take up of high-speed mobile broadband and content services. Triple play services are offered by a number of operators in Russia. Ukraine and Moldova. particularly in Russia and Ukraine where competitive last-mile access regimes are lacking.Russia. FttH/FttB networks have been deployed in previously unserved areas to provide futureproof last mile networks or high-bandwidth alternative infrastructure in high-density areas. see Europe . Russia and Belarus to a lesser extent. resulting in rising broadband penetration levels and the birth of IPTV and triple play services. threatening growth prospects of the country’s minor CDMA operators. Fragmented cable TV markets exist in all countries. Both total telecom market revenue and investment is thriving. Belarus. Incumbent and alternative operators alike are rolling out new technologies including Next Generation Networks. Growth in Russia’s mobile market has peaked. leading major operators into a global search for new growth opportunities and confrontation with established western European telcos.2007 © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. with alternative and regional incumbent operators across the expansive nation promoting ADSL or fibre-based services. WiMAX has been utilised by incumbents to extend last mile access into unserved lowdensity areas while alternative operators have deployed WiMAX to rapidly gain last mile access to customers. Moldova. For further information. with total mobile market revenue expected to surpass fixed-line market revenue during 2008/09. Mature mobile markets exist in Ukraine.16 Europe . Moldova and Ukraine Key Highlights Broadband availability has proliferated across the region. FttH and/or WIMAX networks have been deployed in all four countries.6% and 23. Russia and Ukraine . Mobile and Broadband in Russia. allowing a western European telco to acquire a majority stake in the country’s second largest mobile operator. Belarus. Belarus. broadband and/or voice services. WCDMA 3G network deployments and services have been launched by the three national mobile network operators. Both fixed-line and mobile penetration levels are rapidly rising in Moldova. with quite a number of cable TV networks requiring investment to launch digital cable. Belarus’ government has relaxed ownership controls on its telecoms market.mobile subscribers and penetration . This is particularly the case in the massive market that is Russia. Ukraine’s incumbent has finally launched WCDMA 3G services. posting 2006 annual growth rates of 33. available via ADSL and FttH/FttB. while new competitors are appearing in Ukraine and Moldova.Telecoms. Infrastructure deployments are supporting the launch of broadband and convergence services across the region. Domestic growth prospects still exist due to underdeveloped mobile broadband and content markets.
Country Subscribers Belarus 6,288,000 Moldova 1,511,000 Russia 159,250,000 Ukraine 51,241,000 (Compiled by BuddeComm, various industry sources)
Penetration 61.1% 33.8% 111.0% 110.2%
Europe - Scandinavia
With Iceland’s incumbent opening a 3G network in October 2007, all Scandinavian countries have now deployed some of Europe’s fastest mobile broadband technologies. Nokia has also used the region to trial its innovative mobile user generated content services. The region also has one of Europe’s most concentrated municipal fibre deployments, despite topographical difficulties, which are spurring take-up of triple play services. In digital broadcasting, Sweden and Finland had completed analogue switchover by October 2007, while most of the Danish population could receive all four digital multiplexes by August and Norway was prepared to launch national digital services in January 2008, with 95% geographic coverage. Sweden’s incumbent TeliaSonera bowed to regulator pressure for functional separation, having agreed to establish a new fully-owned infrastructure subsidiary covering copper and fibre networks and multiplexing. The move will further increase competition in the broadband sector, reducing prices and favouring stronger consumer take-up for fast connections in coming years. See Europe - Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband in Scandinavia for further information. Key Highlights Síminn opened Iceland’s first 3G network in October 2007, promising 60% population coverage by mid-2009 and offering download speeds at up to 7.2Mb/s. The development marks an ambitious investment for this small market, and brings the country into line with 3G deployments elsewhere in Scandinavia. Nordisk Mobiltelefon launched a commercial CDMA2000 1x EV-DO Rev A network in Norway in October 2007 using the 450MHz band, the first of its type in the world. A similar launch is planned for Sweden, while Finland is also using the 450MHz band to provide wireless broadband. Sweden’s switch-over to digital TV was completed in October 2007, ahead of the original February 2008 schedule and before many European countries begin the process. Competition in the mobile sector remains strong with a growing number of new resellers, though their overall market share remains low. Triple play services are beginning to reach mass market appeal on the back of upgraded fibre and ADSL2+ / VDSL networks, coupled with greater customer awareness of bundled products. Including VoIP, Video-on-Demand and IPTV. Scandinavia also enjoys some of the highest broadband penetration levels in Europe, with Iceland leading the world, closely followed by Sweden and Denmark, both of which have effective regulatory backing and strong involvement from municipal governments.
© BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. 2008
Europe - Spain and Portugal
Spain’s large mobile market was slow to develop an Mobile Virtual Network Operator sector, but by the end of 2006 the national regulator and the European Commission overcame operator resistance to allowing competitor access to their networks. By mid-2007 several MVNOs were preparing to launch services. The launch of a 3G service by Xfera has added further competition to a lively market, while providers have invested huge sums in building networks to support HSDPA. Portugal’s smaller telecom market has proved to be a major growth area. The incumbent, Portugal Telecom, has significant interests in Brazil and sub-Saharan Africa, and domestically is the leading telco in all sectors. The country’s broadband growth is supported by an excellent cable and DSL footprint, while alternative operators such as Vodafone have emerged as key providers of faster ADSL2+ services. See Europe - Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband in Spain and Portugal for further information. Key Highlights Portugal’s broadband market showed continued strong growth in 2007. The incumbent dominates the DSL sector while its former subsidiary, PT Multimedia, sold in November 2007, bought up three regional cablecos in the year, further consolidating its market position. Cable data speeds at up to 100Mb/s were trialled in 2007, while ADSL2 at up to 24Mb/s is increasingly common. The government set a goal of 50% household broadband penetration by 2010, which should be easily achieved. Broadband in Spain remains comparatively slow, with almost half of all subscribers only able to access about 1Mb/s. This has dampened consumer take up triple play services, though Telefónica and alternative providers have invested heavily in network upgrades, and during 2008 ADSL2+ will be extended beyond the major urban areas. By 2010 up to half of all households should get a 50Mb/s service. IPTV take-up has grown rapidly in Spain, but its real potential will not be realised until 2008 when the country’s broadband infrastructure is further upgraded. Telefónica’s Imagenio service is very popular, while ONO, Jazztel and Orange also provide multiplechannel IPTV. Regulator pressure opened up the Spanish market to MVNOs in late 2006, and by mid2007 several operators were prepared to launch services on the three networks. This development will herald great changes to the country’s mobile market in coming years as competition further reduces consumer prices. Portugal and Spain mobile penetration – 2005 - 2008 Year (e) Portugal 2005 107% 2006 110% 2007 (e) 119% 2008 (e) 125% (Source: BuddeComm) Spain 97% 103% 113% 119%
© BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. 2008
Europe - United Kingdom and Ireland
Ireland’s small telecom market contrasts with that of the UK, which is among Europe’s largest and most vibrant. Ireland has been slow to develop broadband and digital TV, while the UK has a highly competitive broadband sector and the largest digital TV market in the EU. In the UK the markets for triple play continued to mature during 2007, while digital TV take-up reached 85% by mid-year. The country began switching off analogue transmissions in October 2007 in a phased program to 2012. The consolidation of the cable market, with Virgin Media the dominant player, has helped rationalise network upgrades while the operator has extended its footprint through wholesale DSL access. Ireland’s incumbent, eircom, in October 2007 set in train its structural separation, aiming to separate its network infrastructure from its retail business. The model differs from that of BT’s Openreach but if successful it may dramatically boost market competition and provide the stimulus for widespread broadband take-up, encourage investment in network upgrades and promote high-bandwidth triple play services in coming years. See Europe - Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband in United Kingdom and Ireland for further information. Key Highlights 2007 saw further development in quad-play offers, led by Virgin Media and BSkyB through its Sky Broadband, Sky Talk and Sky Plus brands. In October 2007 BSkyB launched a pared down version of its pay TV, broadband and telephone services under a new brand, Picnic. The company’s equipment has been installed in BT exchanges covering 70% of UK homes. To address the UK’s relatively low broadband download speeds the regulator in October 2007 promoted the concept of a national fibre network costing up to £15 billion, with the potential for regulatory intervention to safeguard operator investment sin the sector. eircom sought government approval to split company’s wholesale and retail divisions into two separate operations, with different owners. The structural separation would go some way to address the country’s poor broadband infrastructure and take-up, though the company may expect its fibre network to be closed to competitors for up to five years as a part of any deal. The UK’s digital and pay TV markets is among the most developed in Europe, with a range of services reached by about 85% of the population. The Mobile TV market was strengthened in 2007 with deals between operators and content providers - H3 with BSkyB, Orange and Vodafone with the BBC. H3 in April 2007 launched free advertising-funded mobile TV, while an advertising-funded MVNO, Blyk, may prove to be one of the more successful business models in the market.
© BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. 2008
has found its way to Africa and is growing fast. Several countries have launched broadband initiatives and are rolling out dedicated IP-based networks and new fibre optic links. The extent of Next Generation Networks and services on the continent is still limited. Profit margins are still very healthy in this emerging market. data and broadband TV/video. Given the still large amounts of unsatisfied demand for basic voice services in Africa. leaving ample room for further growth in the coming years. Broadcasting is an integral part of Africa’s development and a means of communication over the vast areas of the continent. Due to Africa’s poor fixed-line infrastructure. Broadband has begun to rapidly replace dial-up as the preferred access method. at least 10% of international calls in almost every country on the continent are still carried by unlicensed grey market players. Massive efforts are under way to adapt the continent’s underdeveloped infrastructure to the growing need. the mobile networks are beginning to play an increasing role in Internet service provision as well.20 AFRICA: While being the worlds most rapidly growing market for mobile telephony and also home to the fastest growing fixed telephony markets in the world. Mobile and Broadband Overview © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. Improvements in broadband infrastructure and the emergence of 3G mobile systems are now opening the way to convergence of conventional and digital media as well as telecommunications. especially the variety using mobile phone text messages (SMS). Newly introduced converged licensing regimes have increased the competitive pressure in a number of key markets but also allow the mobile operators to branch out into new service segments. with market penetration standing at little more than 20%. A surge in demand for Internet access and broadband capabilities is expected to drive these developments further in the coming years. Foreign investors are scrambling for positions in this very lucrative market as privatisation and liberalisation are progressively being introduced. will enable the continent to leapfrog straight to wireless NGNs at affordable cost. Africa’s telecoms future looks very promising and offers great opportunities to service providers. because many operators are not yet passing on the full cost savings from VoIP to their customers. the broadcasters’ viewers represent a huge potential customer base for Internet services as well. fuelled by rapid growth of ADSL and wireless broadband services. currently being rolled out in at least 20 African countries. and this process is already virtually completed in the continent’s more developed markets. equipment vendors and investors. With far greater ownership of TV sets compared to PCs in Africa. typically converged with voice and data services under so-called triple play models. Overall Internet market penetration is still low at just over 4%. The number of African countries where VoIP can be regarded as open to private operators has more than doubled to around 20 in 2007. Other wireless solutions are also used to serve as substitutes for inadequate fixed-line infrastructure. Explosive growth in the mobile sector has meant that by early 2007 mobile users constituted almost 90% of all African telephone subscribers. WiMAX technology. There are. For further information see Africa . and this technology is now gaining ground on the continent following steady improvements in Internet bandwidth. Enormous further potential remains. both on the national and international level. Interactive TV. Africa’s data traffic is on the rise. The first triple play services have been launched across the continent. Several international fibre projects currently under development will deliver the necessary bandwidth to Africa and bring down costs. The continent’s mobile market is consistently growing at around 50-60% every year. Nevertheless. At least nine African countries are currently trialing or planning to introduce Broadband TV and VoD services. following the launch of 3G services in a number of markets – a welcome new revenue stream in an almost entirely prepaid environment with low ARPU levels. offering converged voice. deregulation in several countries and the growing number of VoIP service providers entering the market. 2008 . VoIP is a primary application at this stage. encouraging developments. however. Overall.Telecoms. Africa still has some of the world’s lowest penetration rates.
The government is intent on eventually privatising the national operator. ETC. and the to-be-licensed second national operator will have a mobile concession as well. Gabon Following the introduction of competition between three service providers in Gabon. Democratic Republic of Congo The Democratic Republic of Congo is a mineral-rich country that is recovering from civil strife and many years of pillage by its former leaders which has accounted for the low level of development of its telecommunications and other infrastructure. Kenya Kenya’s mobile market looks likely to move beyond a duopoly in 2007 with the third operator. liberalised international access and VoIP Internet telephony. At the same time.21 Africa – Central and Eastern Regions Low fixed-line teledensity and Internet penetration and strong growth of mobile telephony have been the chief characteristics of the telecom markets in the Central and Eastern regions of Africa. are planned for the five years to 2012. There is also strong demand for Internet service which has been hampered by the underdeveloped telecoms infrastructure. mobile telephony has experienced excellent growth. while the existing mobile operators are establishing themselves as leading ISPs by introducing mobile data services and acquiring existing ISPs. Further massive investments into fixed. Cameroon Like in most African countries. fixed-line incumbent Telkom Kenya will be privatised and licensed to compete in the mobile sector directly. The existing ISPs are combining their forces by merging and preparing to offer VoIP services through newly established wireless broadband networks. creating enormous potential for the provision of basic services. Key countries in the region have privatised their incumbent telcos. and are implementing new competition frameworks. 2008 . Convergence between fixed and mobile. This is creating new opportunities in an environment of converging technologies and services and promises the long-awaited cost reduction and improved availability of telecommunications. is re-entering the mobile sector through a third national licence. and introducing competition in mobile and Internet services. Camtel. Cameroon’s mobile market has been booming since competition was introduced. Telkom would have to dispose of its majority stake in © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. while the fixed-line sector has been stagnant. but its fixed-line and Internet sectors remain underdeveloped due to a lack of competition and the resulting high prices. totalling US$4 billion. voice and data services is now set to change the market dramatically: The fixed-line incumbent. National teledensity remains extremely low. but major efforts to roll out a national fibre backbone and wireless access networks have resulted in an acceleration of growth in all market segments. Ethiopia Ethiopia still practices a monopoly in almost all areas of its telecoms sector. While the traditional fixed-line network has deteriorated to almost non-existence. mobile and Internet services. The recently completed privatisation of Gabon Télécom may bring new impetus to the market in 2007 if coupled with further market liberalisation. Market penetration is still very low. The mobile operators are also among the bidders in the privatisation of a majority stake in Camtel with a view to providing converged services. set to finally overcome its legal challenges and shareholder disputes. already licensed since 2003. Wireless technologies serve as a replacement of the obsolete fixed network infrastructure and public payphones. Several new international submarine cable projects are now set to bring large amounts of fibre-based bandwidth to countries along the continent’s East coast and in the interior for the first time. this relatively small and wealthy African nation has achieved one of the highest mobile market penetration rates on the continent.
Telecoms. With three mobile networks. Ethiopia. Uganda became the first country in Africa where the number of mobile subscribers passed the number of fixed-line users. the aftermath of the 1994 genocide and a monopolistic market structure until 2006 have weighed on the telecommunications sector. have been introduced and at least four WiMAX network rollouts are going on or being planned with the aim of providing converged voice. which as a whole is already the fastest growing region in the world. The recent introduction of GPRS will enable the mobile operators to play a larger role in Internet service provision as well. market penetration is still very low. A new converged licensing regime introduced in 2006 has brought a large number of new players into the market. but the country is now on its way to outpace most other markets in Africa. with legalised VoIP enabling cheaper calls through newly licensed international gateways. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. Tanzania Tanzania has a fully competitive mobile sector comprising four networks and two fixed-line operators. creating additional opportunities for ISPs who are already operating wireless broadband networks. with mobile market penetration at only just over 20%. with other countries set to follow in their footsteps. New international submarine fibre projects will bring bandwidth prices down further and open the Internet up to the mass market. opening up an opportunity for strategic investors. Enormous further growth potential exists. Uganda As early as 1999. The liberalisation of VoIP as well as the introduction of Third-Generation mobile services and wireless broadband networks is also expected to provide a boost to the Internet sector which has been hampered by the low level of development of the traditional fixed-line network. mobile and Internet market forecasts to 2010 and 2015 for Cameroon. Nonetheless. while market penetration is still low at less than 9%. and the ratio is now more than 18:1. Mergers and acquisitions are in full swing. Wireless broadband technologies and ADSL. and mobile banking services empowering the largely un-banked population. including the country’s third national fixed-line and fifth mobile network operator.a. Gabon. and it was recently licensed to compete in the mobile sector as well.22 leading mobile operator Safaricom.. the introduction of 3G mobile services catapulting the mobile operators into the virtually untapped Internet sector. affordable services. A new competition framework has been announced which will include the licensing of a third national operator and the liberalisation of VoIP. soon to be followed by ADSL2. Key highlights Fixed-line. New converged licensing frameworks introduced in Kenya and Tanzania. Kenya and Rwanda. Convergence is ever-present in Kenya’s dynamic and fast growing market. Rwanda In Rwanda. The country has one of the most developed fibre infrastructures in the region and is preparing to connect to the new high-bandwidth submarine cables that are being planned along the east cost of Africa. See Africa . Privatisation of incumbent telcos underway in Cameroon and Kenya. data and video/broadband TV (triple play) services. Mobile and Broadband in Central and Eastern Regions for further information. and a fourth licence for 3G mobile technology is being considered. the market is consistently growing at around 50% p. The 99% privatised incumbent telco is more innovative than most of its African counterparts in the provision of market-driven. 2008 .
the subscriber growth © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. A number of countries in the region have taken a world lead role by abolishing international mobile roaming surcharges. legalising . ISPs are turning into phone companies. combined with voice and entertainment services in a converging and more competitive environment of fixed. Under the incumbent’s monopoly rule. have begun to change the country’s telecoms landscape fundamentally. With market penetration exceeding 70% and mobile number portability introduced in 2006. The continent’s leading mobile market. The newly licensed SNO. and vice versa. South Africa has seen rapid uptake of GSM since competition was introduced to the sector more than 10 years ago. using nationwide infrastructure of Eskom and Transtel. Broadcasting signal carrier Sentech is another major owner of telecommunications infrastructure. The small kingdoms of Lesotho and Swaziland are expected to follow in the footsteps of their powerful neighbour. followed by continuous price cuts in the following years. The long awaited new Electronic Communications Act (formerly Convergence Bill) was finally enacted in mid-2006. Modest growth has now returned to the Internet market. leaving service providers to compete aggressively on price. The boom will be taken over by the provision of broadband Internet access. commercial launch expected in Kenya before the end of the year. Despite being open to competition by more than 200 ISPs. wireless and mobile platforms. stimulated by the launch of ADSL and wireless broadband services in 2004. WiMAX networks are operational or under development in almost every country in the region. Wireless technologies are being pursued to provide alternatives to Telkom’s copper access network. fixed-line teledensity has continuously fallen since 2000. South Africa’s Internet sector has been stagnant in recent years due to the expensive operating environment created by Telkom SA’s dominance in the fixed-line and bandwidth market. The country is taking a regional lead role in the convergence of telecommunication and information technologies. privatise their incumbent telecom monopolies and further liberalise their markets. Sweeping liberalisation measures taken two years earlier. South Africa will see a flattening subscriber growth curve in its mobile market over the next few years. Both are moving into delivering audio and video content over their networks. At more than 70% penetration. The end of Telkom’s monopoly on the international SAT-3 submarine cable in 2007 is expected to help reduce the costs of telecommunication in South Africa which are currently among the highest in the world. but a lack of competition in several key areas has slowed developments down in recent years and allowed the country to be overtaken by some other African countries in terms of certain key indicators. value-add and quality of services. South Africa South Africa’s telecom sector boasts the continent’s most advanced networks in terms of technology deployed and services provided. the country’s electricity and railway utilities. while in turn the traditional electronic media carriers are discovering the potential of their infrastructure for telecommunications service delivery. 3G mobile services launched in Tanzania. 2008 . South Africa and Swaziland South Africa is the economic powerhouse and leading telecommunications market of the continent. The Democratic Republic of Congo is set to become the world’s first entirely wireless country. with virtually no fixed-line network left. Africa – Lesotho. and some of the largest municipalities in the country are also rolling out their own networks.among other things the use of VoIP. Further stimulus is expected in 2007 from the launch of the SNO and an expansion of 3G/HSDPA services by the country’s mobile network operators.23 Full liberalisation of VoIP Internet telephony expected in Uganda. Neotel finally launched services in competition to Telkom SA in early 2007.
three operators. Swaziland The telecoms sector in Swaziland features an old-style posts and telecom monopoly operator for fixed services and one of the last mobile monopolies on the continent as well. The planned unbundling and eventual privatisation of the incumbent and the introduction of more competition would enable the market to live up to its relative GDP strength. Telecom Lesotho is pushing fixed-mobile convergence. Mobile data revenue close to 10% of total in South Africa. Egypt. fixed and mobile penetration is relatively high compared with other countries in the region. only about average in the region. Egypt.Telecoms. The use of wireless technology has led to an accelerated increase of teledensity. caused by the limited extent of the fixed-line network and limited options for affordable international bandwidth. The introduction of mobile Internet and multimedia services via 3G mobile technology is one way of doing this and has lead to a marked increase in data traffic. 2008 . Mobile market penetration was approaching 20% in mid-2007 compared with a fixed-line teledensity and Internet penetration of less than 3%. Second national operator (SNO) in South Africa has launched services. Key highlights: Fixed-line. mobile and Internet/broadband market forecasts to 2010 and 2015 for South Africa and Swaziland. in the case of Morocco. with Algerie Telecom scheduled to follow suit in 2007. See Africa . Another is the adoption of the MVNO model. ADSL is rapidly replacing dial-up as the main Internet access method in South Africa.24 curve has started to flatten. with competition in the mobile subsector since 2002. Africa – Northern Regions Northern Africa is home to some of the most developed telecom markets on the continent. has been held back by a lack of attractive broadband offerings. The level of Internet usage. South African mobile market is approaching saturation. increasingly forcing the three network operators to find innovative ways of distinguishing themselves from the competition in order to gain and retain customers. Morocco and Sudan which already have two and. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. Mobile and Broadband in Lesotho. Nevertheless. joining Algeria. All countries in this group except for landlocked Chad have well developed fixed-line infrastructures and direct access to international submarine fibre optic cables. Lesotho Telecommunications in Lesotho has undergone gradual transformation from a state-owned monopoly to a privately majority-owned national operator. which in turn will foster further growth in Internet penetration. Morocco and Tunisia have fast growing broadband markets. Swaziland’s incumbent SPTC due for privatisation following major restructuring program. South Africa and Swaziland for further information. Telkom SA continues to post record results. highlighted by the entry of Virgin Mobile into the market. Telkom SA prepares major WiMAX launch in early 2008. Following the end of Telecom Lesotho’s exclusivity period. more competition may be introduced in several market segments. Algeria. Most incumbent telcos in the region are already privatised. Tunisia is planning to licence a second fixed-line operator.
Sudan is regarded as one of Africa’s most lucrative telecommunications markets. A nationwide fibre optic backbone and international access via submarine cables. Two fixed-line and three mobile networks are competing for customers. The majority stake in the country’s leading mobile network was sold in 2006 for a record price. highly profitable incumbent telco. The second and third fixed network operators are both rolling out wireless infrastructures based on the WiMAX standard which will allow the provision of converged next-generation IP-based services. Enormous further potential exists since penetration rates are still low in all market segments. Sudan The third largest oil producer in sub-Saharan Africa and one of the biggest countries on the continent. rolling out broadband and nextgeneration services. as well as the highest penetration and some of the lowest prices for broadband access on the continent. See Africa . 3G mobile services were introduced in 2007. and the licensing of a second fixed-line operator is expected in the near future. Second fixed-line licence expected in Tunisia. The Moroccan market is set for continued spectacular growth that will see it reach levels of development rivalling those of some European markets over the next five to ten years. receiving hundreds of millions of Dollars in foreign investment in 2007. a mobile penetration in excess of 55%. 3G mobile services have been launched and are set to stimulate the underdeveloped Internet sector as well.26 network in 2004 which sent market penetration skyrocketing from one of the lowest in Africa to one of the highest within only two years. mobile and Internet market forecasts to 2010 and 2015 for Algeria.Telecoms. is now establishing its own independent telecommunications regime. Privatisation of Algerie Telecom in progress. Algeria and Egypt are the most advanced VoIP markets in Africa. creating huge new opportunities for service providers and equipment suppliers. A commercial IPTV service was launched as one of the first in Africa. One of Africa’s first commercial IPTV services launched in Morocco. Mobile and Broadband in Northern Region for further information. three fixed network operators. The incumbent telco was part-privatised in 2006. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. Egypt and Morocco. The mobile sector has experienced exceptional growth since the introduction of competition in 2002. Key highlights Fixed-line. coupled with some of the lowest broadband prices in Africa have supported rapid development of the Internet sector. Tunisia Tunisia has one of the most developed telecommunications infrastructures in the relatively affluent Northern African region and sports some of the continent’s highest market penetration rates. Libya’s mobile market penetration has skyrocketed from one of the lowest in Africa to one of the highest within only two years. featuring a majority-privatised. 2008 . Under a recent peace agreement. A majority stake in Sudan’s leading mobile network was sold for a record price. the oil-rich south of the country which has been beyond the central government’s control and deprived of development. Morocco Morocco is one of the most advanced telecommunications markets in Africa.
albeit from a very low base.3% 2003 127. through a new service-neutral licence. They also entered the mobile market successfully as the country’s third player.015.800 0. to some of the poorest countries in the world like Malawi and the island of Madagascar. Angola Angola is the second-largest producer of oil in sub-Saharan Africa. A national fibre optic backbone network is being implemented.34% 1999 28. is now also enabled to compete in the mobile sector.000 1. neighbouring Zimbabwe is demonstrating how telecoms markets in Africa survive even the most difficult of operating conditions.3% 2004 320. have managed to almost double the number of fixed line customers in 2006 alone after years of stagnation.000 67% (Source: BuddeComm based on industry data) Africa – Southern Region and Indian Ocean Islands The diversity among the countries in this group is immense. Madagascar The new private owners of Madagascar’s incumbent telco. With peace restored in 2002 after almost 30 years of civil war. The government is in the process of privatising BTC which. but plans to exploit and export crude oil and natural gas reserves may deliver a boost to the economy.89% 2002 710. resulting from the traditionally underdeveloped fixed network.27 Mobile subscribers and penetration rate in Libya . Penetration rates in both sectors are still extremely low. sporting some of the best telecoms market indicators of the continent. using 3G wireless technologies and WiMAX to provide advanced services.6% 2005 877.51% 2000 39. ranging from the small Indian Ocean island nation of Mauritius. promising excellent growth potential. The licensing of four new fixedwireless operators in 2002 has introduced competition to this sector. Major steps were taken in 2006 towards full liberalisation of the already competitive telecommunications sector.000 0. while the governmentowned national operator BTC has seen a continued decline in the number fixed-line connections despite the introduction of ADSL broadband services. as well as countries which have emerged from decades-long civil wars like Angola and Mozambique and which are consequently at a very low level of development. Privatisation of Angola Telecom and the licensing of a third mobile operator are expected in the not too distant future.000 2.700 15% 2006 (e) 4. With one of the lowest GDPs per capita in the world. Botswana Botswana is one of the continent’s wealthiest nations with a thriving economy mainly based on diamond exploitation and tourism. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. Telma. there will be limits to the growth of Madagascar’s telecoms market. In between are relatively wealthy nations like Botswana and Namibia which benefit from their close ties with South Africa. foreign investment has multiplied. However.000 5. Angola Telecom’s fixed-line network still serves less than 1% of the population.000 0. Pent-up demand for Internet access and broadband capabilities. Mobile penetration has passed the 50% mark which is more than twice the African average.71% 2001 50. In its deep political and economic crisis.000 0. 2008 . and the recent rise of oil prices may push GDP growth as high as 35% in 2007.1998-2006 Year Subscribers Penetration 1998 20. will continue driving both market sectors.
The incumbent telco has been partially privatised and all sectors of the market are open to competition. textiles. Several WiMAX networks currently under development will boost Internet connectivity and bring additional competition to the voice market once Internet telephony (VoIP) is deregulated. The country’s ISPs are rolling out wireless broadband networks. giving additional impetus to the market moving into 2007. 2008 . the first commercial 3G mobile service in November 2004. but market penetration is still very low in this sub-sector as well. which in turn has impeded growth in the Internet sector. and to become a regional telecom hub with Singapore as a role model. A second national operator was licensed in May 2007 and the county’s third mobile licence is expected later in the year. Mauritius The island nation of Mauritius sports some of the best telecommunication market indicators in Africa and has been the first with many innovations: It launched Africa’s first cellular system in 1989. and yet. and the planned liberalisation of Internet telephony (VoIP) should create further opportunities. Zambia Zambia has an independently regulated telecoms sector with three competing mobile networks and a monopoly fixed-line operator. positioning themselves as competitors in the telecoms sector once Internet telephony (VoIP) is fully liberalised – a key component in Zambia’s new ICT Policy which was launched in early 2007. the country had already achieved a market penetration rate above the African average. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. among other issues. Telecom Namibia. The fixed-line incumbent. the country is well positioned to remain one of the most developed telecommunications markets in Africa. tourism and financial services. A second fixed-line and third mobile operator launched services in 2006. around 5%. The country was one of the first in the region to reform its telecommunications landscape. An announcement regarding the licensing of a third mobile operator is expected before the end of 2007. immediately after a peace accord had been reached in 1992. With an extensive fibre optic backbone. Mauritius is actively pursuing a policy to make telecommunications the fifth pillar of its economy after sugar. market penetration is still only about half the African average. The fixed-line network is at a very low level of development. The other mobile network was partially privatised in 2006 and has launched 3G services. and the world’s first nationwide high-speed wireless broadband network based on the WiMAX standard in 2005. The mobile sector has grown more than ten-fold during the same period. despite more than doubling the number of fixed-line connections in the past five years. market penetration is still relatively low at little more than half the African average. Namibia Namibia was one of the last countries in Africa to introduce competition in the mobile communications sector when a second network finally launched in 2007. Zamtel. The mobile sub-sector has experienced excellent growth rates. Malawi’s telecommunications sector is among the least developed in Africa with a fixed-line penetration rate below 1%. Mozambique Fifteen years of peace and radical reforms have transformed Mozambique into one of the fastest-growing economies on the continent. While the mobile sector has experienced excellent growth. MTL. Several ISPs are rolling out wireless broadband networks. was finally privatised in 2006 following several unsuccessful attempts. quietly entered the lucrative mobile market as the third player but was put on hold by the regulator until the new ICT Bill brings clarity about fixed-mobile convergence. Despite this.28 Malawi Malawi’s incumbent telco. Internet usage is expected to receive a boost from wireless broadband networks currently being rolled out and the introduction of 3G mobile services in the second half of 2007.
500 385. 3G mobile services launched in Namibia. Privatisation of incumbent telcos expected in Angola and Botswana. For further information see Africa .001. Attempts to privatise the national telco during this time have failed.600 1. In its almost decade-old deep political and economic crisis. Ghana led the way when it privatised its national telco as early as 1995.000 325. with Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal following in 1997 when France Telecom acquired stakes.81% 2. The country’s backbone network is being upgraded. Mobile subscribers and penetration in Zimbabwe . as has a second national operator. Growth of the country’s three mobile networks has been slowed down temporarily.28% 3.000 281. The mobile markets in this region are highly competitive with three or more network operators in most © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. broadband data and IPTV) launched in Mauritius. Malawi and Mozambique. Zimbabwe demonstrates how telecoms markets in Africa survive even the most difficult of operating conditions.74% 8. Mozambique and Zimbabwe before the end of the year.100 509.09% 0. Converged Triple Play services (voice.29 Zimbabwe Zimbabwe’s almost decade-old deep political and economic crisis has not spared the country’s telecom industry. Additional mobile licences expected in Angola.42% 2. with a dwindling local currency. including the introduction of 3G mobile services. Successful turnaround story of Madagascar’s incumbent telco following privatisation.45% 1. Mobile and Broadband in Southern Region and Indian Ocean Islands Key highlights: Fixed-line.000 177. 2008 .400 336.1997-2006 Year 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 (Source: BuddeComm) Subscribers 11.300 Penetration 0.300 55.Telecoms.89% 3. including fibre optic links which will also improve Internet connectivity. but an immense pent-up demand is now being addressed following major infrastructure upgrades. two of Africa’s most promising growth markets driven by oil revenues. hyper inflation and government interference creating a difficult operating environment.800 745. WiMAX networks are operational or under development in almost every country in the region. unable to raise the necessary funding.53% 2.21% Africa – Western Region The countries in this group include some of Africa’s most liberalised telecommunications markets.92% 5. expected in Angola. Liberalisation of VoIP expected in Malawi. mobile and Internet market forecasts to 2010 and 2015 for Angola and Madagascar.
the Middle East and South Africa continue to keep a keen eye on every takeover opportunity or new operator licence being tendered in the region. as market penetration rates are still relatively low. is affected. Continuing liberalisation of VoIP is creating new opportunities for wireless broadband access networks that are set to replace the extremely underdeveloped copper fixed-line networks and ultimately compete in the mobile sector as well. fresh investment is expected to accelerate the development of the national network infrastructure. but fixed-line penetration has remained low at around 3%. Benin Benin only recently separated an old-style posts and telecommunications entity and established an independent regulator. caused by aggressive restructuring attempts by the government. Nigeria is one of the continent’s largest and fastest growing markets. Mobile telephony has experienced outstanding growth. the growth prospects are excellent. Four mobile operators © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. However. With hundreds of service providers for all kinds of telecommunication services. The recent award of additional international licences. The country has a relatively well developed infrastructure and some of the lowest prices in Africa for ADSL broadband services. which in turn has hindered Internet usage. are expected to lead to new opportunities for additional market players. Mobile penetration is well above the African average and is expected to be driven further by the recent licensing of a third and fourth network operator. rural operators and possibly a VoIP operator. including new guidelines on VoIP. Extensive national fibre optic backbone networks are being rolled out. already highly competitive with four networks. Uncertainty currently hangs over the liberalisation of the sector. most segments of the telecom market have continued to flourish during the crisis which started in 1999. Foreign investors from Europe. It was also among the first countries in Africa connected to the Internet and to introduce ADSL broadband services. While growth prospects in the mobile voice market are still excellent. Côte d’Ivoire A new peace agreement signed in Côte d’Ivoire in March 2007 gives hope for a normalisation of affairs in this divided country. the focus is beginning to shift to broadband Internet and converged voice and data services. However. ADSL broadband services were introduced in Gambia in 2006. making extensive use of wireless systems. with subscribers to the three digital networks now outnumbering fixed lines in the country by more than 10:1. Onatel. and the new Telecommunications Bill. Moving into 2007. once a clear. Ghana Ghana led the way in telecommunications liberalisation and deregulation in Africa when it privatised Ghana Telecom as early as 1996. investor-friendly framework is back in place. the telecom sector promises new opportunities with the government’s plans to license several new international gateway operators. with speeds of up to 8Mb/s. Even the mobile sector. the planned privatisation of Gamtel. Burkina Faso Following the majority-privatisation at the end of 2006 of Burkina Faso’s incumbent telco.30 countries. 2008 . and all countries in this group have access to high-speed transmission capacity on submarine cable systems linking them with each other and the rest of the world. This is expected to change with ambitious plans to multiply teledensity by 2008.000 per customer are indicators for the enormous potential that is seen in this market. Recent events such as the launch of a third and a fourth mobile network and the sale of the second national operator for more than US$30. with penetration rates in all market segments well below African averages. Gambia Gambia has had a 100% digital network since 1995.
Senegal was one of the first African countries to introduce ADSL in 2003 which has almost completely replaced dial-up as an Internet access method. and is yet standing at low to very low levels of market penetration. The mobile sector has seen triple-digit growth rates five years in a row since competition was introduced. Ghana. The current deployment of the country’s first NGN will drive further convergence of voice. enabling the provision of triple play services that will ultimately also involve the country’s already competitive broadcasting sector.31 are competing for customers. mainly from Europe. The sale of second national operator Westel.10% 0. With an ailing incumbent that was finally privatised in 2006. in early 2007 for almost four times the asking price indicates the huge potential that is seen in the market despite the already intense competition.000 91. VoIP is already carrying the bulk of Nigeria’s international voice traffic. ADSL has almost completely replaced dial-up as an Internet access method in Senegal.2006 Year 1996 1997 1998 1999 Subscribers 13. The national telco. Nigeria Nigeria is one of the biggest and fastest growing telecom markets in Africa. the Middle East and South Africa continue to expand their footprints in the region. Following a share buy-back from the original private stakeholder. resulting in attractive opportunities for new entrants.100 Penetration 0. now representing more than 90% of all telephone lines.Telecoms. but US$2 billion in investments continue to flow into the country’s telecommunications market every year. a second national operator and several private fixed-wireless operators dominate the fixed-line market. attracting huge amounts of foreign investment. See Africa . A new unified licensing regime designed to increase competition between fixed and mobile network operators is expected to also give a boost to the Internet sector. Cote d’Ivoire mobile subscribers and penetration rate – 1996 . including its mobile business. The incumbent’s monopoly officially ended in 2004. Senegal Senegal has developed one of Africa’s most extensive and modern telecommunications infrastructures. the number of mobile subscribers has grown dramatically. and a second national operator and third mobile operator are to be licensed. A fifth GSM operator and four 3G mobile networks were licensed in early 2007.26% 0. Key highlights: Fixed-line.600 36. Since the introduction of competition in the mobile sector in 1999. Overall market penetration is still low. and the electricity utility’s fibre network in Ghana will be privatised. Cote d’Ivoire demonstrates how African telecoms markets are relatively unaffected by conflict. Ghana Telecom will be looking for a new strategic investor and float part of its equity on the local stock market. 2008 . data and video/TV. Foreign investors.8% © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. Nigeria and Senegal. The national operator Sonatel is partially privatised and highly profitable. Over 200 companies are providing virtually all kinds of telecom and value-added services. mobile and Internet market forecasting to 2010 and 2015 for Benin. which also holds the country’s fifth mobile licence. The spectacular growth curve of Nigeria’s mobile market is slowly beginning to flatten.64% 1.200 257. Mobile and Broadband in Western Region for further information.
000 3.671.100 4. Global Mobile.000 23% (Source: BuddeComm based on ITU reports.32 2000 450.200 7.347.239.0% 2001 706.5% 2004 1.077. ATCI) © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd.000 13.700 6.4% 2006 4.3% 2002 1. 2008 .400 9. 030.3% 2003 1.9% 2005 2.
State-by-state video franchising reform continued apace. though cable still leads in terms of market share. with subscriber growth rates around 75%. The number of traditional fixed-line customers continued to drop sharply during 2007. In particular. WiFi was becoming increasingly commonplace in the USA during 2007. However. The Internet economy continued its meteoric rise. Microsoft’s bid for Yahoo!. whose VoIP services enjoyed rapid subscriber gains. for the first time. both Verizon and AT&T Inc posted fixed-line losses of around 10% for 2007. On the regulatory front. thus facilitating the deployment by the RBOCs of IPTV on their expanding fibre networks. The US wireless industry continued to enjoy considerable growth through 2007 reaching approximately 83% subscriber penetration by early 2008. together with Google. Total broadband subscribers continued to grow solidly.33 North America: This market continues its trend towards a triple play model during 2007 and early 2008. Key highlights: During 2007 total revenue for the telecommunications industry grew by around 8% to reach over $1 trillion. with sites such as Facebook becoming $100 billion companies virtually overnight. See North America . of which wireless service revenue accounted for approximately 31%. with the telcos aggressively deploying fibre networks. Broadband and Mobile Statistics (tables only) for further information. with Verizon and AT&T both reporting declines of around 10% in residential wireline accounts. a combined 50% of the $20 billion per annum online advertising market. after a series of complaints were filed with the FCC by public interest groups. the Commission demonstrated some support for the principles of net neutrality in late 2007 by launching an inquiry into network management practices by broadband providers. the percentage of wireless-only households exceeded. would give the merged entity. nevertheless doubts were being raised over the viability of municipal WiFi programs following the difficulties experienced in cities such as San Francisco. the telcos started making genuine strides towards their vision of triple play. were the cable companies. the percentage of wireline-only households. in particular cable VoIP.Telecoms. by aggressively accelerating their deployment of optic fibre networks across their footprint. Broadband DSL subscriber growth continued to outpace cable subscriber growth. Thus the RBOCs continued to focus on their fibre deployments in response to increasing competition from the MSOs’ VoIP and triple play offerings. they will soon overtake the cable companies in terms of broadband market share. Significantly. although in terms of broadband penetration. laptops being automatically equipped with WiFi cards and WiFi moving beyond the laptop. if successful. Online advertising and e-commerce are becoming an increasingly significant share of the overall advertising and retail markets. Telecom service revenues reached $458 billion. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. The main beneficiaries of the telcos’ significant churn rates. Their sense of urgency was highlighted by the rate of wireline losses. By late 2007 FttH deployments in the US were growing at over 110% per annum. The growth in VoIP was a major contributor to this decline. with a burgeoning hotspot network. Chicago and Philadelphia. the US continued to edge towards the bottom half of the OECD tables. 2008 . highlighting the enormous scale of network economies that can be harnessed by the Internet’s expansive reach.
video blogs and Internet-accessed entertainment services. During 2007 the major satellite providers. A number of causes which may explain the trend include over-reliance on a content-focussed business-model and/or distribution issues with MVNOs failing to secure channel deals with large retailers. satellite will struggle to maintain these gains as it cannot match the cable companies’ broadband networks. Thus while overall voice ARPU decreased during the third quarter of 2007. DirecTV and the DISH Network. continued to make gains at cable’s expense. For instance. up from around 4% in 2004. Wireless data revenues continued to enjoy strong growth in 2007. with the market moving towards a triple play model in the longer term. due in part to their competitive pricing plans and comparative advertising campaigns against their cable competitors. causing a cloud of uncertainty to hang over the sector. with mandatory analogue switch-off scheduled in February 2009. underpinned by robust wireless data revenue growth. These open access platforms both offer significant scope for increased convergence among services and devices. The acquisitions are seen as a means by which major carriers can increase their subscriber numbers and network footprints as wireless penetration reaches saturation point.34 The wireless industry was characterised in 2007 by a number of acquisitions by major carriers of smaller regional and rural carriers. In the broadcasting sector. the transition to digital TV gathered pace in 2007. This drove the growth of VoD services in particular. data ARPU sustained a steady incline. The selection of 4G wireless technologies became more compelling in late 2007. with Sprint Nextel on the verge of an extensive WiMAX deployment and Verizon Wireless announcing its decision to start LTE trials in late 2008. the majority of wireless data revenues were being generated by non-messaging applications and services such as music downloads. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. mobile TV. By late 2007 data service revenues accounted for approximately 18% of total wireless service revenues. Significantly. by 2007 it was estimated that approximately 45% of all cable subscribers utilised VoD. However. 2008 . During 2007 the MVNO market witnessed a number of high-profile exits.
It gained control of the operator in May 2007 with an 86.9%. 28. Mobile and Broadband Overview and Latin America Mobile Statistics (tables only) for further information. América Móvil and Telefónica Móviles (jointly with Portugal Telecom in Brazil) serve around 65% of the region’s mobile subscribers. and CANTV in Venezuela. Argentina and Uruguay came next. Disagreements continue over the choice of digital terrestrial TV standards. but broadband penetration at year-end was only 3. In February 2007.35 Latin America: The Latin American region is making giant strides forward in the telecoms market. ADSL is the broadband leader. Latin America saw its first IPTV services in 2007.Telecoms. but frequency licensing in Brazil and Mexico was further delayed.3% in 2008. due to the inequalities between rich and poor.4%. Mobile penetration in Latin America and the Caribbean was over 66% in early 2008. and 51. particularly mobile telephony. which was around 46%.1% that it purchased through concurrent share offers on the New York and Caracas stock exchanges. fixed-line growth in Latin America continues to stagnate. See Latin America . In early 2008. and indeed within each nation. with a stable 71% market share virtually unchanged since 2005. and between urban and rural areas. There exists however a wide digital gap among the various nations. and Uruguay were offering 3G services. and Uruguay has opted for Europe’s DVB standard. and Brasil Telecom in September 2007. considerably less than the global average of 5. Chile’s Telsur in July 2007.6% of the world’s population. Broadband grew at an annual rate of around 40% in 2007. UNE-EPM in Colombia. all mobile operators in Chile. 3G mobile services first reached Latin America in late 2006. Both countries are expected to hold WiMAX auctions in 2008. in mid-2007. while it holds about 8.6% that it already owned.0% in 2007. which comprised 6. Brazil has chosen the Japanese ISDB. Paraguay led the trend. Other companies with plans to launch IPTV include Oi and Telesp in Brazil. Latin America had 375 million mobile phones compared with 101 million fixed-line phones.5% that it purchased from Verizon. the Venezuelan government moved to renationalise the country’s incumbent telco CANTV. Any chance of reaching a common standard has evaporated. Cable modem accounts for 26% of the market. The region’s share of the global mobile pie is around 12%. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. Argentina. Telefónica Chile lunched IPTV in June 2007. Key highlights Latin America’s GDP grew by 5. Brazil saw its first 3G services in November 2007 and Mexico in February 2008. WiMAX deployments continued in 2007 throughout Latin America. with more than twelve mobile phones for every fixed line in service.2% stake. By end-2007. well above the world average. Despite a low 18% average teledensity. 2008 . and wireless broadband for the remaining 3%. launched by Cingular in Puerto Rico in November and by Entel PCS in Chile in December. and is expected to grow by 4. since Mexico and Honduras have adopted the USA’s ATSC.
to Suriname. Brazil’s fixed-line market has been privatised since 1998. to less than 0. With the fourth largest oil reserves in the world. and Paraguay. 2008 . Key highlights The fixed-line market has been liberalised in Brazil and Venezuela.5 million sq km and 191 million people. the Bolivian government (47%). and the mobile market continues to post double-digit growth. Triple play strategies combining voice. government initiatives and regulations in the telecom industry. Suriname and Paraguay’s incumbents are wholly state-owned. and video services have been adopted in Brazil and Venezuela. Internet. while Guyana’s is one of the lowest. they are slowly losing market share to smaller operators. the countries are also vastly different. although the incumbents continue to dominate the fixed-line infrastructure in both countries. while Venezuela’s was privatised in 1991 and renationalised in 2007. with 161 thousand sq km and half a million people. but holds exclusivity over all fixed-line services. essential country and operator statistics in all telecom sectors. Brazil is a leading investment destination for international operators and suppliers. given its size and potential to develop into a top world market. Economically. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. Mobile telephony is highly competitive in all five countries. Guyana. no conciliation was yet in sight. making mobile phones accessible to many customers who do not meet credit requirements for postpaid services. they range from Brazil. Mobile penetration ranges from around 60% to 80%. with which they are frequently associated. and the emergence of convergence and triple play. and in early 2008. led by Paraguay where mobile phones outnumber fixed lines in service by as much as twelve to one. Latin America – Eastern Nations The Eastern Nations consists of five nations that occupy the north-east and centre-east of South America. mobile penetration is similar in all five countries. with several operators offering services. and Entel workers (3%). varying from about 4% in Brazil and 3% in Venezuela.36 The Bolivian government announced in April 2007 that the country’s fixed-line incumbent and mobile market leader Entel would be renationalised. Guyana and Suriname are preparing for fixed-line liberalisation after years of failed attempts. Guyana. Negotiations between the Bolivian government and Telecom Italia however turned sour. with a land area of 8. The Eastern Nations of Latin America are considerably diverse.5% in Suriname. the smallest country in South America. There is good investment potential in this market. In size. while Paraguay continues to function in a monopolistic environment. the development of product offerings for both mobile and broadband technologies. Guyana and Suriname share many characteristics with the Caribbean Nations. Broadband penetration is low but on the rise. Prepaid cards have played a significant role in driving growth. but the small markets of Suriname. Venezuela’s GDP per capita is one of the region’s highest. bordering the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea – except for Paraguay. which is land-locked. Entel’s stakeholders were Telecom Italia (50%). Guyana’s incumbent telco has been privatised since 1991. and Paraguay are still behind technologically. This report presents a concise overview of sector liberalisation and privatisation among the Eastern nations of South America. Fixed-to-mobile substitution is prevalent throughout the sub-region. Despite the huge differences in size and economy. the fifth largest country in the world.
on the other hand. and there is good scope for the testing of new technologies. essential country and operator statistics in all telecom sectors. Costa Rica is the only exception. 2008 . the nations of Central America have leapfrogged directly into mobile communications. Due to low fixed-line teledensity. from Guatemala.000 people (Belize) to 13. These countries present the worst case scenarios in Central America in terms of fixed-line development. which remains a state-owned monopoly. Guatemala’s teledensity is no more and no less than would be expected given the country’s other macroeconomic indicators. Poverty is more widespread in these countries than in the rest of Latin America. but proper implementation has been delayed by political and legal wrangles. Interestingly. only slightly higher than would be expected considering Honduras’s other macroeconomic indicators. is about 40% lower than the overall Latin American average. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. and competition is growing. mobile phones. and in population from 311.720 sq km (El Salvador) to 120. El Salvador. Nevertheless. and a colossal one. Teledensity in Guatemala. which would indicate that fixed-line privatisation and competition are no guarantee of development in this market. however.Telecoms. and this is reflected in the development of telecommunications. especially thanks to fixed-wireless deployments. and has only partially liberalised its fixed-line market. is in the process of liberalisation. Apart from Costa Rica. They have also theoretically liberalised their fixed-line sectors. Mobile and Broadband in Central America for further information. This is a good indication that mobile telephony thrives best in private hands and in a competitive environment. Mobile competition is keen. and an abysmally low mobile penetration compared with its relatively high GDP per capita. we find that Costa Rica’s fixed-line teledensity is one of the highest in Latin America and well beyond what could be expected given its other macroeconomic indicators. only El Salvador and Panama are slightly above the regional average. With the start of competition and the introduction of prepaid plans. while in mobile telephony. government initiatives and regulations in the telecom industry. which has been open to competition since 1996. all telecoms markets are growing.254 sq km (Nicaragua). fixed-line teledensity in the Central American nations is lower than average for Latin America. the development of product offerings for both mobile and broadband technologies. Investment opportunities are promising. and the emergence of convergence and triple play. to Costa Rica. Guatemala. Nevertheless. no prepaid cards. and penetration is far higher that would be expected considering their other macroeconomic indicators. mobile telephony is expected to soar. See Latin America . and Panama have fully privatised and liberalised their fixed-line markets.3 million people Guatemala.37 Latin America – Central America Central American consists of seven small countries. since it has a single state-owned mobile company. since privatisation without liberalisation places a telecom incumbent in a position of hegemony where it can charge high prices and is under little pressure to improve services. This report presents a concise overview of sector liberalisation and privatisation in the Central American sub-region. ranging in size from 20. Key highlights Liberalisation of the fixed-line market is at different stages. Honduras has yet to privatise its telecom incumbent. teledensity is low. and broadband. Costa Rica’s mobile market. particularly in the areas of wireless systems. Nicaragua and Belize have privatised their fixed-line incumbents. Differently from Costa Rica.
Growth during 2008 will continue to be fuelled by declining tariffs in the mobile and longdistance sector. Mexican telecommunications growth for 2008/09 will receive further impetus from government reforms. given President Felipe Calderon’s recent statement that telecommunications is one of two key industries in which he intends to promote greater competition as part of his economic goals to 2012. mobile and broadband markets including developments in emerging technologies such wireless broadband and VoIP. but there is good scope for investment in alternative technologies. the fixed-line market remains relatively stagnant. and WiMAX in El Salvador. Dominican Republic. following industry growth in 2007 at an estimated eight times higher than average real GDP growth rates. analyses and detailed statistics of the Mexican and Caribbean countries’ fixed-line. For instance. The provision of ADSL in Panama is dominated by the incumbent. Despite being relatively small markets by global standards. enjoy first world telecom services.6%. far lower than would be expected considering its GDP per capita. compelled Mexico’s antitrust agency to launch an investigation into the mobile and other telco markets in November 2007. 2008 may witness CFC rulings with important industry-wide implications. Despite the generally low telecoms indicators in Central America. In particular. Jamaica. telecommunications has become one of the Caribbean’s major growth industries. Latin America – Mexico and the Caribbean The area consists of Mexico and the Caribbean. 2008 . the country that is slated to be Latin America’s best performer in terms of economic growth. the region’s mobile sector has been witnessing significant expansion in recent years. such as IPTV in Panama. Indeed. These two companies are predicted to continue dominating the robust mobile sector growth during 2008/09. Mexico still suffers from a lack of competition.4% in Nicaragua and Honduras. such as VoIP. Although Telefónica’s Movistar launched in 2002. broadband penetration is only 0.2% in Costa Rica. concerns about the overall lack of competition and about certain monopolistic behaviour. In contrast to the mobile sector. Accordingly. mobile subscribers in Mexico grew by over 20% in 2007 and broadband lines continued to post even stronger gains of around 50%. In Panama. Mexico and Puerto Rico. these countries have witnessed some of the region’s most advanced technological deployments.38 Broadband uptake varies greatly among these seven countries – from a penetration of around 2. High Definition TV in Honduras. This may lead to unbundling in Mexico © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. Investment in infrastructure during 2008/09 is expected to increasingly trend towards broadband access and associated IP services. while rural areas lack even basic telephony. Key highlights: The Mexican telecom industry is forecast to continue its strong growth rates through 2008/09. Haiti. to less than 0. This phenomenon is partly due to the leapfrogging of conventional systems often found in developing countries. where certain urban areas. with the small island nations through to the larger countries of Cuba. and by increased deployment of broadband networks. particularly in capital cities. While in a handful of countries Cable & Wireless still holds a monopoly in the fixed-line sector. This report provides overviews. a growing number of countries now have other operators offering fixed-line services at competitive prices. and partly due to the sharp social disparities. Despite this strong growth. To date this growth has largely been harnessed by Mexico’s América Móvil and more recently by Digicel. América Móvil’s Telcel still holds around 75% of the market.
2.4. but only by 3% annually. and digital TV. and Uruguay are Latin America’s most prosperous countries. adult literacy. the last OECD country to unbundle its local loop. particularly in the more advanced technologies such as 3G. As penetration rates are still relatively low. broadband. 2008 . For more information. WiMAX.39 in 2008-2010. such as standard of living. it is predicted that 2008 will continue to enjoy strong subscriber and revenue growth rates. see chapter 1. and its other telecom markets are fully open to competition. see chapter 6.5 million subscribers (around 50% of the market) within 18 months of operation. Growth has been stimulated by the entry of Digicel. has been soaring in the Southern Cone. For more information. page 52. with 23% teledensity. All three markets present good investment opportunities. and this is reflected in the development of telecommunications. Uruguay enjoys the highest fixed-line teledensity in Latin America. Mobile telephony. Cuba’s telecom market. and penetration has either reached or is close to reaching the 100% mark. essential country and operator statistics in all telecom sectors. One of the star performers in terms of mobile growth has been the region’s poorest country. and the emergence of convergence and triple play. bar a few Caribbean islands. Argentina. for instance. Verizon’s interests in the region. For more information. Latin America – Southern Cone Argentina. page 74. see chapter 3. For more information. These nations are the regional leaders in a number of key indicators. Key highlights While Chile and Argentina have fully privatised and liberalised their telecoms markets. which had a late development in the mobile market. is the only country where fixed lines in service are growing. and regulations in the telecom industry. and Internet uptake. Haiti. This report presents a concise overview of sector liberalisation and privatisation in the Southern Cone sub-region. thus giving it control of the dominant Puerto Rico Telephone Company and of Verizon Dominicana (to be renamed Codetel) which dominates the Dominican Republic’s fixed-line market and holds around 50% of its mobile market. Competition between operators is keen in all three countries. may be on the verge of liberalisation from 2008 following President Castro’s retirement in February 2008 and the imminent transfer of power to a more reform-minded successor. page 11. teledensity. which attained approximately 1. Carlos Slim’s América Móvil continued its aggressive expansion in the region. It acquired. Uruguay’s local fixed-line sector remains a state-owned monopoly. Nevertheless. IP-based communications. with subscribers in the region increasing at an average annual growth rate of around 50% per annum between 2003 and 2007. mobile. quality of life. see chapter 4. which has the lowest mobile and Internet penetration in Latin America. Chile. Argentina and Uruguay have the highest mobile penetration in Latin America. and pay-TV technologies.6. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. government initiatives. convergence. on the other hand. the development of product offerings for fixed-line. The fixed-line sector in the Southern Cone suffers from fixed-mobile substitution. especially in Uruguay. The overall Caribbean mobile market has become one of the most dynamic markets in the world.9. page 97. Haitian mobile subscriber numbers increased by nearly fivefold in the three years to early 2008. and Chile is the region’s Internet and broadband leader.
or nationally. Colombia. 2008 . snow-capped mountains. a telecom company must ally with a cable TV operator to offer converged services. bordering the Pacific Ocean – except for Bolivia. particularly in alternative technologies suited to the area’s rugged terrain. mobility has become the chosen alternative in the Andean countries. In Argentina. Ecuador. and have not been able to develop any convergence solutions. Telmex Chile launched Latin America’s first mobile WiMAX e service in October 2007. there is considerable room for growth in all four markets. leading to a ratio of around 4.8 million sq km and a population of 99. with the worst macroeconomic indicators in the region.5 million. and Uruguay is not far behind. the trade bloc was called the Andean Pact until 1996. Argentina in May 2007. these countries are characterised by tropical lowlands. with VTR – Latin America’s first triple player – and several other companies all offering triple play packages. Colombia. the other countries have several regional operators – Bolivia has 15 local telephone cooperatives. And all three countries have witnessed the launch of 3G mobile services – Chile in December 2006. particularly in Chile. Bolivia has South America’s lowest mobile penetration and second lowest fixed line teledensity.40 The broadband market has been booming. Apart from Peru. but in Argentina. Although all three markets are open to competition. Prepaid cards have played a significant role in driving growth. Latin America – Andean Bloc This region consists of four nations that occupy the north-west and centre-west side of South America. CAN’s headquarters are in Lima. where there is no cable modem broadband. The Andean Community of Nations – Comunidad Andina de Naciones (CAN) – is a trade bloc comprising Bolivia. regionally. and Uruguay in July 2007. CAN’s membership decreased from six to four countries following the withdrawal of Chile in 1976. and Colombia has around 30 local providers that operate municipally. and good investment opportunities. Chile is the regional leader. cable TV companies are not allowed to offer either Internet or voice services. Convergence has had a different development in each one of the three countries. Argentina’s penetration is the second highest. And in Uruguay. On the upside. Telefónica Chile was the first company in Latin America to launch IPTV. All three countries have developed WiMAX networks. particularly in Uruguay. Key highlights The fixed-line market has been liberalised in all four nations. and of Venezuela in 2006. Peru. and Peru are among the poorest countries in South America. regulations prevent telcos from providing pay TV services. where penetration is the highest in Latin America. and Peru. Bolivia. Uruguay’s Antel hopes to launch IPTV services. in June 2007.5 mobile phones for every fixed-line in service. making mobile phones accessible to many customers who do not meet credit requirements for postpaid services. which hinder the laying of copper wire. Ecuador. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. VoIP telephony has been adopted by a number of operators and is available through Internet cafés and telecentres. lack of local loop unbundling has given the incumbent operators a dominant position. Founded in 1969. which is land-locked. With a total land area of 3. which has one fixed line incumbent that dominates the last mile. Long distance telephony is extremely competitive in all four markets. Fixed-line teledensity is limited throughout the Andes by the low population density and the rough mountainous landscapes. Due to the poor fixed-line teledensity. and extremely ragged landscapes.
Falling equipment prices. operators have been using various wireless and satellite technologies to reach isolated communities. Asia-Pacific: China The Chinese telecommunications market is the largest in the world. Triple play strategies combining telephone. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. however. China Satcom and China Unicom. broadband.4%. total mobile subscriber numbers are forecast to pass 600 million in 2008.6% in Bolivia and Ecuador respectively. low service tariffs and strong consumer demand for services such as online gaming and file sharing have been some of the reasons behind the impressive growth of broadband. China Mobile. China became the second largest broadband market in the world after the US in 2004.2% to total GDP. especially in rural China. the number of mobile phone users reached 565 million. According to official statistics from the Ministry Information of Industry. Telecommunications development figures prominently in the nation’s priority scheme as China readies itself for the 2008 Beijing Olympics. The robust growth was due to an expanding rural market and the increasing number of people who have acquired more than one mobile phone. the long-awaited licensing of 3G services is getting closer and will surely give the market yet another boost.1% and 0. to 0. where approximately 750 million of China’s population resides and teledensity is just 12%. In the past five years. revenue from basic telecom service contributes approximately 2. about a quarter of China’s Internet users. There is little doubt that China will soon pass the US to become the world’s top broadband market. 2008 .3 million to around 365 million. after it had passed Japan earlier in that year and South Korea in 2003. The Chinese telecom market is serviced by six main operators: China Telecom. while the Peruvian government has created a single licensing system in the hope of encouraging convergence. Both China Mobile and China Unicom have invested considerably in network improvements. following a record level of subscriber additions during the year. the substitution of fixed-line services by mobile networks has accelerated. cable modem is strong and WiMAX has gained a 5% market share. while value-added telecom services contribute a further 3. with several major players offering triple play service. or roughly 7 million a month. China Tietong (formerly China Railcom). WiMAX has become the future hope for this region.8%. and pay TV services have been adopted or are being rolled out in all four markets. Broadband uptake is below the South American average. the mobile phone is becoming the preferred means of using the Internet. exceeding the fixedline subscription base of 362 million. Since the implementation of one-way charging implemented nationwide in the middle of 2007. China’s telecom service industry has grown at a faster rate than the country’s GDP. Colombia is the most advanced of the four in the area of convergence. There continues to be a major need for industry restructuring and government action is expected in conjunction with the issuing of 3G licences. According to the annual survey conducted by China Internet Network Information Centre. ADSL is the leading technology by far. but crucially market penetration will remain below 50%. State agencies have been discussing possible mergers among the operators as part of the industry restructuring. the fixed-line customer base shrank by 2. Looking ahead. The number of people who access the Internet through their mobile phone surged to 50 million in 2007 from 17 million at the end of 2006. a penetration of 27. meaning the Chinese market still has a lot of untapped potential. In Colombia.1% of the country’s GDP. For many of China’s tech-savvy citizens. With the mobile sector still expanding at over 18% going into 2008.41 Besides mobile telephony. By the end of 2007. While China Mobile and China Unicom added over 86 million users. as one of the country’s ‘pillar industry’. mobile penetration in China stood at 41. and the first WiMAX or pre-WiMAX networks have been deployed in all four countries. China Netcom. By February 2008. varying from about 2% in Peru and Colombia.
that would give China 590 million Internet users. up 61. page 94.5%.6 million giving a rural penetration rate of 7. It is estimated that China’s online gaming population will hit 84.3. China had about a 16% Internet penetration rate compared with the world standard 19.8% in 2008. see chapter 6.7%. By end-2007.2. see Asia .3.2 million IPTV subscribers.Telecoms. This was well above rural subscribers of 52. telecommunication charges fell 13.42 going into 2008. Sales of online games in China topped US$1.3 billion in 2007. in early 2008 China Mobile started selling heavily subsidised TD-SCDMA phones in eight cities. which accounted for less than 1% of China’s total retail sales. Against a background of rising consumer prices in 2007.6 billion) in 2002. Internet users stood at 210 million. the highest in the country. The rise in broadband lines to over 66 million was accompanied by a significant fall in the cost of Internet connections. Shanghai had 300.4. For further information. For more information.5%. Of China’s 210 million Internet users.8 billion) in 2011 from 76 billion yuan (US$10. it is estimated that the number of Internet users in China will grow at a compounded annual rate of 18.2. Over the next five years.000 IPTV subscribers by March 2008. The Internet makes up only about 5% of advertising spending in China compared with 10% in the US. however a World Bank report released in May 2007 highlights that this is more than 10% of the Chinese average monthly income. see chapter 6.2%. Online sales. In developed countries people spend an average of less than 1% of their income to access the same information online. TD-SCDMA. 68 cities had completed digital cable TV conversion. with the penetration rate of digital cable TV reaching 24.8 billion yuan and is expected to grow 45.9% year on year to 2.45 billion in 2007. Mobile and Broadband in China Key highlights: The number of China’s telecommunication users reached more than 900 million in 2007. close to 75% of China’s 210 million Internet users were from urban areas. China’s online advertising market revenue reached US$1.6% year-on-year. The average connection cost fell to less than 75 yuan per month at the end of 2007. Early in 2007 China ramped up the number of cities trialling its home grown 3G standard.4 billion in the same period. including around 365 million fixed lines and 545 million mobile users. The transaction volume of China’s online business-to-business jumped 65. China Netcom and China Telecom between them. By early 2008. up more than 90% from 2006.4. Officially it is © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. 55 million shopped online in 2007. while US Internet advertising spending reached around US$21.2. Revenues drawn from online B2B operations are expected to jump to 13.6. to 10. For more information. After initial reports in May 2007 that China was expected to invest at least RMB4 billion (US$519 million) buying TD-SCDMA handsets. China Internet consumption in 2007 was 398.5%.3.2 billion. page 90. By end-2007.33%. Going into 2008. Online shopping reached US$8. By 2012.1% and the US’s 69. while the US will grow at only 2.8 billion yuan (US$1. page 122. This makes it the first country in the world to do so. For more information. see chapter 7. had over 1. over 75% using broadband for Internet access. 2008 .3%. are forecast to make up 5-8% of total retail sales by 2012.56 million by 2012 from 40 million in 2007. Urban subscribers reached 157 million representing an urban penetration rate of 27.1 trillion yuan (US$292 billion) in 2007.
8 million Internet users in the territory. As a result of open competition in the local FTNS market and government’s withdrawal of its mandatory Type II interconnection policy.5G and 3G subscribers. the inability to offer a widely-supported 3G network was the only infrastructure target that Beijing failed to meet. Broadband Internet subscriptions well and truly surpassed dial-up subscriptions by end-2005. the country’s mobile market has been growing strongly and had become one of the most highly penetrated in the world . Hong Kong has moved quickly in providing around 75% of all households with access to broadband connectivity. The calling-party-pays billing policy for mobile phones. There were in excess of 4. the territory had more than 3. gaining access using either dial-up or broadband. as operators benefited from lower churn and higher revenue due to good quality content. supported by a large number of ISPs. based on OFTA data. the Office of the Telecommunications Authority. An ongoing price war cut mobile phone air-time rates to levels where operators became increasingly reliant on provision of non-voice value-added services to maintain margins. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd.000 dial-up subscribers. because 3G licences have not yet been issued.151% by the start of 2008.7 million 2. The country has put in place substantial infrastructure which supports one of the world’s highest penetrations of mobile phones and telephone services. Taiwan). This is remarkable considering that Hong Kong not only has the highest density of fixed telephone lines in the region but also that local calls on the fixed network are free. Macau. Broadband ARPU levels were increasing. PCCW can provide CDMA 2000 services after 20 November 2008. Asia-Pacific – Hong Kong and MacauError! Bookmark not defined. 2008 . a SAR of China. giving a 95% fixed-line household penetration rate and 53% fixed-line population penetration rate. representing an impressive penetration of over 152%. remains very low profile compared with its bustling sister SAR. The number of broadband subscribers represented about 67% of the total Internet subscriber base. Hong Kong’s regulator. was finally implemented during 2007. in turn.588 million mobile subscribers.88 million broadband subscribers and 960. While fixed lines reached an effective saturation point a few years ago. Hong Kong. This included over 2. including the provision of public switched voice telephone services anywhere in Hong Kong in a reasonable period of time. under discussion from before 2001. PCCW has a universal service obligation to provide a continuous basic service. Mobile and Broadband in Hong Kong and Macau for further information. See Asia . and will construct the new network during the intervening period.8 million fixed telephone lines in service. It has however quietly built itself a strong modern telecoms infrastructure. By early 2008. Hong Kong. Going into 2008. mainly using DSL. Macau has been busy adopting the Internet and by January 2008. a Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China. Furthermore. over 80% of residential households are able to enjoy an alternative choice of local fixed network operators.5G and 3G services of considerable importance. This has been accompanied by rapid growth in the Internet market.43 a trial. there were an amazing 10. By December 2007.Telecoms. has played a major role in developing the telecom sector. made 2. over 94% of all Internet subscriptions were broadband based. going into 2008. Hong Kong’s Internet subscriber base consisted of 1. According to the International Olympic Committee. this. This penetration level puts Hong Kong in a tussle with Macau for first place in the Asian mobile market (both now well ahead of previous leader. according to OFTA. takes pride in the way it has built one of the most sophisticated telecommunications markets in the world. among the highest in Asia as well as in the world. Key highlights: In October 2007 OFTA awarded a 15-year licence to PCCW for the CDMA2000 licence in the 850MHz band.
a process that took on a new impetus following the Asian economic crisis of the late 1990s. political and economic issues that have been proving problematic. Although the statistics were somewhat imprecise. Telkomsel was indeed making its presence felt in the market. Operators are expected to launch services in 2009. it has some particularly big challenges to confront in building the necessary telecommunications infrastructure to cover a uniquely complex geography. Indonesia has been experiencing healthy sustained growth in subscriber numbers and revenues.3. In more recent times. It was expected that the milestone of 120 million mobile subscribers would be reached by end-2008. despite the occasional setback. The roll-out of fixed wireless infrastructure has been well supported by the operators with Bakrie Telecom and PT Telkom leading the way. up from 12 million just six years earlier. Besides losing its historic market share edge. in October 2007 Hutchison (Macau) launched its 3G network deploying WCDMA technology to roll out a 3. While the country’s mobile penetration was suddenly approaching 40%. the industry view was that there was still considerable potential for further growth in the market.44 After being awarded a 3G licence for WCDMA in 2006.6Mb/s HSDPA broadband network. The company launched its 3G network in Macau in October 2007. Broadband © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd.50 service fee for its 100Mb/s service. At the same time market interest started to focus on the 3G services already being offered by five operators. page 102. That still put it within striking range of i-Cable.000 video subscribers in Hong Kong with a paying base of 628. In November 2007 HKBN began deploying what it claims to be Hong Kong’s first Gigabit Passive Optical Network. representing a relatively low penetration of 10%. In December 2007 the Telecommunications Authority announced the decision to auction spectrum for the provision of broadband wireless access services in the 2. Asia-Pacific – Indonesia and Timor Leste Indonesia Indonesia continues to see its telecommunications sector grow. 2008 . however.000. i-Cable may also start shedding subscribers. expanding at an annual rate of close to 50%.69GHz band by October 2008. see chapter 2. In a densely packed market that has an estimated 2.5-2. By early 2008 the total mobile subscriber base had passed 90 million. claiming about 80% of the five million 3G subscribers at end-2007.2. While fixed-line teledensity remains disconcertingly low (just over 8% in early 2008). HKBN claimed it had turned traditionally cost prohibitive FttH technology into affordable mass-deployed residential service at a HK$48. PCCW ended 2007 with 882. For more information.4GHz and the 2. In the meantime.10. In June 2007 China Unicom won a licence to provide services based on the alternative 3G standard CDMA2000 1x EV-DO.3-2. The number of Internet users in Indonesia was estimated at more than 25 million by early 2008. which closed 2007 with 882. the advent of fixed wireless services has boosted the growth rate in the last few years and provided much-needed basic telephone services to previously unserved communities. by end-2007 fixed wireless services made up about half the total fixed-line subscriber base.3 million TV households. The government has been gradually reshaping the telecom industry. This has PCCW stealing away cable customers in a highly competitive market considered one of the most mature and saturated in the world. The country of around 250 million people is obviously a huge potential market. Indonesia’s mobile market continues to grow. progressing to HK$215 1Gb/s. the nation has had to deal with a range of social. The Internet subscription market was generally depressed with less than 4 million subscribers reported in early 2008.000 video subscribers. At the same time.
Where official statistics are not available. which had a 35% stake in PT Telkomsel. the annual increase in mobile subscribers was almost 50%. after receiving medical treatment in Australia. the country appeared to have started reasonably well in rebuilding its entire infrastructure following the turbulence that ensued after the referendum of 1999. announced in May 2007 that there was evidence of cross-ownership of Indosat and Telkomsel that was violating the country’s anti-monopoly laws. In the meantime. The Prime Minister was uninjured. The state of emergency ended in May 2008. but nonetheless significant. after Temasek appealed a lower court’s adverse ruling. these efforts appeared to have little impact. Fixed-line network expansion was generally languishing coming into 2008. While the ITU does provide some information on this market. Temasek owned a 56% stake in Singapore Telecom.Telecoms. President Ramos-Horta returned in April 2008. A short time later a convoy including Prime Minister Gusmao was fired upon. At the time. Temasek’s wholly-owned Singapore Technologies Telemedia controlled 75% of Asia Mobile Holdings. Mobile and Broadband in Indonesia and Timor Leste Key highlights: Indonesia’s mobile market passed 90 million subscribers in early 2008 with penetration running at about 37%. PT Telkomsel and PT Indosat controlled more than 80% of the domestic mobile market. just on 50% in 2007). 2008 . Together. However. the parties were waiting on a decision by the Supreme Court. The issue subsequently underwent a process of resolution by the courts. Indonesia’s competition watchdog. After more than seven straight years of strong growth. with teledensity down around 0. While the government was continuing to promote greater use of online services. Then. BuddeComm will normally provide an estimate. following the surrender of most of the rebels. it was evident that growth in this sector remained constricted and there was little optimism about online activity in the short term.45 Internet access was virtually non-existent. It is noted that Timor Leste has finally been listed as a member of the ITU. with mobile penetration reaching a low. Timor Leste (formerly East Timor) The political instability and outbreaks of civil unrest that erupted in Timor Leste in April/May 2006 continued into the first half of 2007. throughout this difficult political period. Responding to the attacks. in February 2008 President Ramos Horta was shot and severely wounded in an attack led by rebel Alfredo Reinado (who was allegedly involved in the unrest of April/May 2006). The KPPU alleged that the cross-ownership by Singapore’s state-owned holding company Temasek in two of Indonesia’s mobile operators violated the 1999 anti-monopoly law. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. By June 2008. the government declared a state of emergency. 7% milestone by end-2007. a company that owned 40% of PT Indosat. To the outside observer. For further information. it remained difficult to assess the long term impact of these events on the country’s fragile economy and the process of infrastructure building. Despite the election of a new government led by Nobel Peace Laureate Jose Ramos Horta in May/June 2007 opposition to the administration caused further outbreaks of violence and looting. the events of 2006/07 caused major concerns about the direction of the Timor Leste. the country’s mobile sector was experiencing strong growth (over 50% in 2006. see Asia . the KPPU. In a move that some observers felt could have a negative impact on investment in the country’s telecom sector. Although it was difficult to get accurate figures on the Internet market.3%. it has continued to be a difficult task to obtain official statistics for the country’s telecom sector.
The telecommunications regulatory authorities in Japan have been instrumental in shaping the industry and as a result. the ongoing political and civil unrest in the country continued into 2008 and was a major distraction for government. with 3G subscribers representing only about 4% of the total mobile subscriber base. The DSL and FttH platforms support the bulk of the country’s broadband market. Coming into 2008. has continued to exert over virtually all local customers remains a particular challenge for the regulator. Japan is one of the world’s top 3G markets. On the broader scene. with other technologies such as cable modem and wireless making up less than 10% of the total market. The year 2007 again proved positive for Timor Leste’s mobile market.5% of the world subscriber base going into 2008. with over 80 million (80%) 3G subscribers by the end of 2007. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. penetration had reached 7% by early 2008. Japan’s telecommunications infrastructure is significantly ahead of those in the US and Europe. not only in terms of size but also in terms of innovation and its ability to be early with the introduction of advanced technologies. the market in Japan remains as eager as ever for broadband connection to the Internet. 2008 . but penetration remained low (0. Strong competition was also apparent among the mobile operators in the 3G segment of the market. Asia-Pacific . Internet penetration remained low (10% user penetration by end-2007) and Internet subscription rates were considerably lower. Broadband Internet access numbers in Indonesia were starting to grow. Japan’s telecommunications sector is one of the most active markets in the world. Especially noteworthy has been the uptake of FttH services (with a corresponding move away from DSL) and the big strides taken in developing digital and mobile broadcasting. however.46 Indonesia’s 3G market was still in its infancy two years after launch. Japanese broadband subscribers comprised around 8. In terms of quality and affordability. DSL subscribers were declining from the peak in 2006. the country was witnessing the continued growth of VoIP and triple-play services in particular. more than tripling in size over the four years to March 2007. Mobile market leader Telkomsel had made a big impact on the still small 3G market with 80% of the five million subscribers coming into 2008.Telecoms. with growth surging by almost 50% for the second consecutive year. Japan has been an early adopter of triple play models which provide TV. as well as plans for 4G.JapanError! Bookmark not defined. a growing concern has been the development (and lack) of cyber law in a society that is increasingly spending its time online. as customers continued to shift to FttH. Going into 2008. NTT Corp. providing a serious disruption to development programs and infrastructure building. See Asia . broadband Internet and voice telephony as packaged services from a single provider. Key Highlights: The number of broadband lines in Japan has posted dramatic growth.1%). Japan has assumed a dynamic leadership role in many aspects of global and regional telecommunications. This has been enabled through Japan being a world leader in broadband Internet. Japan is one of the world’s leading mobile telephone markets. In addition. Mobile and Broadband in Japan for further information. Though there is little hope of surpassing the US and China in terms of numbers. The control that the incumbent operator.
although NTT showed considerable increases during 2007 to obtain over 50% market share 3G accounts for almost 80% of the mobile market in Japan.47 During 2007. also in 2009. 2008 . however. with 30% of the total VoIP subscriber base by September 2007. MVNOs are common outside Japan. For more information. put in jeopardy as a result of difficult and protracted negotiations with DoCoMo on a roaming deal. After investing over US$426 million. see chapter 9. This trend highlights the severe pressure that NTT is experiencing. IPMobile was awarded a licence restricted to 2. The plan to offer voice telephony services were. an increase of 100% for the latter over the previous year. music downloads facilitated by linkage between the content providers and the operators. The local market’s other significant growth area coming into 2008 was in IP based telephony. Other operators showed reluctance due to concerns that handset sales could decline. in December 2007. The company is also one of the strongest drivers of the Long-Term Evolution standard. while Willcom hopes to launch its own high speed service. Japanese subscribers are well accustomed to accepting rich content advertising messages. Out of NTT DoCoMo’s 53 million subscribers by September 2007. In March 2008 US brand Walt Disney launched as an MVNO on Softbank’s network. and in 2006 discontinued a similar service based on its ESPN sports TV network. taking up more than 10% of all telephony subscriptions. the total value of all mobile advertising and marketing is expected to reach US$1.0GHz bandwidth in November 2005. Mobile operators establish their own mobile advertising agencies to support operators’ business models for mobile advertisements. nearly 48 million used the i-mode service and 27 million the mobile wallet. to adopt an MIC panel recommendation. and is expected to launch around 2009/10 before the standard is complete. KDDI plans to introduce WiMAX in 2009. to stop subsidising mobile phone prices through rebates. using next generation PHS technology. DoCoMo has introduced HSDPA and plans to offer HSUPA in 2008. and Osaifu-Keitai which is a mobile wallet allowing subscribers to pay for train tickets and the like with their mobile phones. the number of fixed subscribers declined below 50 million (less than 40% penetration). in 2007 IPMobile abandoned its plans to enter the mobile market due to financial difficulties. Here Softbank is a major player. though they have had mixed results. The Radio Regulatory Council awarded licences to KDDI and PHS operator Willcom in December 2007.2 billion in Japan. and high levels of competition and low price plans eating away at the mobile market dominance. By 2012. providing a strong base for the development of richer content. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. EMobile launched its 3G service in October 2007 and by end January 2008 the operator had 238. faced with declining fixed-line subscribers. page 108. resulting in the possible closure of retail outlets. and that of mobile subscribers surpassed 100 million (just less than 80% penetration).500 subscribers. NTT DoCoMo became the first mobile operator. Popular valued added services continue to be i-mode for Internet access via mobile phones. Disney last year hung up on an MVNO in the US that used Sprint Nextel Corp’s network. The company returned its 3G mobile licence and filed for bankruptcy with the Tokyo District Court.
7 million in 2002 (almost 20% penetration). up from only two million in 1998. The mobile phone has captured the imagination of the population. having reached annual growth levels in excess of 50% by the mid-1990s. but then it found a new ways to grow.5 million subscriber mark (or around 16% household penetration).48 Asia-Pacific – Malaysia and Philippines Malaysia Malaysia has developed one of the more advanced telecom environments in the developing world. however.35 million (just under 16% penetration) by the start of 2008. R&D investment to date totalled more RM814 million. However. the market quickly recovered. By contrast. Coming into 2008 the market. The 25 million mobile subscriber milestone is set to be passed in 2008. the Philippines has witnessed a strong focus on and a rapid take-up of mobile services. was expanding at an annual rate of more than 50%. Although the project has become much lower key than previously. with the regulator reporting that Malaysians sent more than 10 billion SMS during 2006. Malaysia’s mobile users have also been enthusiastic in their adoption of SMS. Fixed-line teledensity stands at less than 5%. No doubt contributing to the problems experienced in the fixed-line sector. A large proportion of the recent growth has also been © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. fixed-line subscribers dipped to 4. For a period in the 1990s the country was busily promoting itself as a regional high technology hub. which is dominated by services based on DSL technology. mobiles have well and truly overwhelmed fixed-line services.000 companies involved by June 2008. growth of fixed-line services has been far more modest. Following the example set by the Philippines. from only 1% at end-2004. the Philippine government. with broadband growth in particular being disappointing. While still in an expansion phase the Malaysia’s telecom sector has undergone a period of consolidation with telecom companies doing battle in an increasingly competitive and changing market. The last decade has seen healthy overall growth in the country’s telecom sector. Internet take-up in Malaysia has been surprisingly restrained. especially in recent times. Of particular note has been the remarkably high national usage of SMS. but in recent times it has adopted a quieter profile and has set about the task of steadily building a technologically progressive economy. growth dropped sharply coming into 1998 as the impact of the Asian economic crisis was felt. lifting penetration to 5%. the broadband Internet market finally started to experience a major surge. The mobile market has been a totally different story. over the last few years. During 2006-07 there was close to 200% expansion. only a little more than half of all Philippine towns and cities have a telephone service. working with the country’s telecom operators. Having moved rapidly from around 2 million in 1990 to 4. The continued growth has confounded the market. Penetration has grown quickly to reach 60% (55 million subscribers) by early 2008. passing the 1. The Philippines Despite considerable effort over the last decade or so. Malaysia has also been continuing to develop its multi-billion dollar Multimedia Super Corridor (MSC) project. This gave Malaysia the second highest mobile penetration in South East Asia after Singapore. with more than 2. remains well behind the regional leaders where broadband household penetration is typically running at above 50%. has not succeeded in its efforts to extend the basic fixed-line telephone network to reach the wider population. there have been times when the sector looked to have reached a plateau. A fixed-line teledensity of 12% by 2002 was the original target set for the government as part of its Service Area Scheme (SAS). However. Coming into 2008 just over 90% of the 27 million people in Malaysia had a mobile telephone service. the government says it has been meeting its MSC targets. not surprisingly. 2008 . The plan fell well short of target and since then fixed-line penetration has remained relatively static. Malaysia. Malaysia’s mobile market had made a remarkable recovery after suffering a serious setback.
obviously being given a massive boost by the mobile segment. 2008 . See Asia .000 people in the country early in 2008. there were only 11 broadband services for every 1. the growth level in the overall economy. While 3G numbers were growing quickly they still only represented 4% of the total mobile subscriber base. leaving plenty more room for growth. Broadband subscribers in Malaysia represented only 5% of the population at end-2007. The launch of 3G mobile networks by Telekom Malaysia and Maxis in late 2005 saw a total of almost 1 million subscribers signed up for new generation services by end-2007. vigorously competing for lower income segments of the population by offering a range of cheap prepaid products. Mobile penetration reached almost 60% by early 2008. Broadband Internet access finally started to grow in 2006. and. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. a wireless broadband product similar to WiBro in South Korea. Despite the fresh new growth. providing a much needed boost to a market where over half the users are still accessing the Internet at cyber cafes and other such venues. Globe and Smart. most importantly. with subscribers continuing to increase through 2008 despite expectations that the market was saturating. on top of 30% in 2006. The MSC project continues to grow. Mobile and Broadband in Malaysia and Philippines for further information. The jump followed the expansion of PLDT’s SmartBro service.000 subscribers by year-end. with the big operators. the sector has been contributing more than 10% to the country’s GDP. The Philippines telecom sector continues to contribute over 10% to the country’s GDP. After surprisingly little interest in broadband Internet for many years. with an estimated 340. 2006 saw the start of a significant surge in broadband uptake. rising to almost 1 million in mid-2007. continuing into 2007 with a massive surge of almost 200% over the year. Key highlights: Over 90% of Malaysians had a mobile telephone service by early 2008. The fixed-line market continued to be a problem for the Philippines. overall broadband penetration remains low. with more than 2. Growth in fixed-line services has continued to ‘flat-line’ with penetration of only about 16%. Further mobile growth will depend on pricing and marketing strategies of the operators.000 companies signed up by June 2007. with mobile penetration only expected to rise to about 75% (about 15 million new subscribers) over that period. fixed teledensity stands at less than 5% with no sign of increased expansion in sight. broadband penetration in Malaysia has finally started to grow – up by 50% in 2007. but this was still only 4% of the population. Growth is expected to ease over 2008-2010. The Philippines has been lagging badly in its roll-out of Internet and broadband services. The mobile market in the Philippines managed to grow another 20% in 2007. The Philippine telecoms and IT market continues to exude considerable optimism despite the ups and downs.Telecoms.49 coming from outside the main city of Manila.
some positive reforms did emerge during this period. which are not likely to be easily or quickly resolved. happily this interim period ended without too much pain and certainly no further militarily intervention when general elections were held in late 2007 and a new government was installed. Thailand. the NTC had to contend with the volatile political environment following the 2006 coup. further to this. Even in basic fixed-line telephone services. wanted to roll back the process of privatisation of the two state-owned telcos. Myanmar is continuing to lag far behind Thailand. the mobile market had moved from 8 million in 2001 to 53 million in 2007. the recent high level of growth taking the industry by surprise. there can be no doubt that the upheaval over the last few years has had considerable negative impact on (1) the Thai economy. In a matter of only six years. Nevertheless. This ministry’s form has indeed been consistent with the overall operating environment of an economy where change is simply slow. Despite all the difficulties.000. again throwing uncertainty over the regulator’s role. in Myanmar it is less than US$250. The telecom sector witnessed the appointment by the post-coup government of a Minister for Information and Communication Technology who. sectoral reform remains unfinished business. By early 2008. Myanmar Posts and Telecommunications (MPT). 2008 . A reasonably strong growth trend has continued since then and by end-2007 there were around 1 million broadband subscribers in the country. GDP per capita in Thailand is running at around US$4. In mobile and Internet penetrations Thailand leaves Myanmar far behind. which has certainly been struggling with its democratic processes and institutions. While generally seen within the industry as a rather regressive administration. TOT and CAT. It was not until 2005 that the number of broadband subscribers started to move in any serious fashion. resulting in major economic imbalances. On the other hand we have Myanmar operating as it has under a repressive military dictatorship for many years now and presenting a market that remains totally closed and centrally controlled. to be put in place. he wanted to restore some of their regulatory powers. It took four years after the enabling Telecommunications Act was adopted as law in 2000 for the country’s new regulator. the National Telecommunications Commission. The overthrow of the Thailand’s Shinawatra government in a military coup in September 2006 was followed by a period of government by a military-appointed administration. The development of their respective telecom sectors reflects the same divide. mobile penetration was around 82%. however. the Internet is an area of the Thai market that has also been popular – at least in its dial-up form. for example. Oddly. a constitutional monarchy. Apart from the booming mobile sector. at least initially. Thailand’s telecom sector has continued to display a surprising amount of energy. the two countries have been developing along totally different economic paths.50 Asia-Pacific – Myanmar and Thailand The neighbouring countries of Thailand and Myanmar continue to provide an interesting contrast. As the country continued its search for increased politically stability. The country has been battling both economic problems and a troubled political climate. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. Soaring inflation remains a major problem (34% in 2007). Myanmar’s telecom sector continues to be dominated by the state-owned monopoly telephone service provider. a segment of the market that the Thais have not given any priority. And once it became operational. Broadband penetration was still under 2%. has nonetheless been able to offer an essentially open market. (2) the administration of the country and (3) investor confidence. The country’s mobile telephone market in particular has recorded strong annual growth rates. took a policy position that was essentially against what were seen as Thaksin Shinawatra’s telecom reforms. the development of broadband Internet has been languishing. Even with a newly-elected government in place in early 2008 the future direction for the regulator was not exactly clear. Similar in both population size and land area. The new minister. Thailand has certainly been seeing the benefits of a liberalised market with the highly competitive mobile sector being the big beneficiary. The country’s centrally planned economy is plagued by weak fiscal and monetary management.
Then in December 2007 a newly-elected government committed itself to the task of getting the country back on track.Telecoms. Key highlights: Thailand’s mobile market had reached 53 million subscribers by end-2007. overall broadband penetration remained low (under 2%).000 (0. after reportedly growing at an annual rate in excess of 100% in 2006. The broadband Internet market in Thailand saw another year of vigorous subscriber growth in 2007. Mobile and Broadband in Myanmar and Thailand for further information. At the same time. Thailand needs to work to get fresh momentum in its stalled reform processes. Myanmar’s mobile market. the annual increase in the mobile subscribers was still running at over 30% coming into 2008. managed another healthy expansion in 2007 with a 40% jump in subscribers. The latter has a lot further to travel in this regard. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. In the meantime. one source suggested that mobile subscriber numbers had in fact declined from a mid-2007 peak. combined with a disturbing lack of transparency.000 subscribers (0. the telecom sector is characterised by what can only be described as stunted growth. After more than seven straight years of strong growth. While interest in broadband services was finally picking up in Thailand. 2008 . it was happening from a relatively small base. running at an annual rate of around 60% with all the signs suggesting that this would continue through 2008.3% penetration) in 2005 to 325. It should also be noted that Myanmar’s official economic data is not considered reliable. it is reasonable to assume that fixed-line telephone penetration remains at or below 1%. worked hard to stimulate the economy. To cap this off. the post-coup government. following the political and social upheaval of late 2007 subscriber data reports suggested that things were actually going backwards. the country suffered a devastating cyclone in May 2008 resulting in a huge loss of life and massive damage to the country’s fragile infrastructure. have not surprisingly frightened off foreign investment. this growth was from a low subscriber base in the first place – up from 126. making actual growth rates difficult to ascertain. the MPT’s level of capital investment in telecoms infrastructure has been depressingly low. Nevertheless. after a number of missteps. looking to such initiatives as free trade agreements. Of course. Despite a slowing in economic growth following the September 2006 coup.51 These problems. From totally different perspectives Thailand and Myanmar must both seriously address regulatory reform. See Asia . The telecom sector reflects the overall state of the national economy and society. and Internet access continues to be severely restricted in its availability to the general public. given the state of the economy and the absence of serious foreign investment. With information on growth patterns being difficult to obtain. Myanmar needs to get some sort of reform process started. the penetration of mobile services is even less than that. In fact.7%) in 2007.
South Korea is considered a leader in 3G mobile technology and has the world’s highest percentage of mobile users on 3G. the Republic of Korea continues to push forward on this front. South Korea has the world’s highest number of broadband services per capita. South Korea is the most penetrated broadband market in the world. Around 90% of South Koreans have at least one mobile phone. Electronic commerce is common in private and public sectors. South Korea is an early adopter of triple play models. The three main mobile operators are SK Telecom. deregulation and early privatisation of the incumbent. this lead to the introduction of HSUPA. Mobile and Broadband in North and South Korea Key highlights: In early 2008. a major government education initiative provides Internet education to all segments of the population.Telecoms. South Korea’s Fair Trade Commission gave approval to the proposal by SKT to buy a large stake in Hanaro. Loans were given and licences awarded to alternative operators to build networks and increase penetration. By 2010 incumbent Korea Telecom plans to have transformed its network into an NGN running over 50 times faster than current rates. The fixed-line telephone market in South Korea continues to be dominated by the incumbent KT Corp. digital cable and digital satellite TV broadcasting by 2010. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. North Korea’s obsession with secrecy has made it extremely difficult to get a clear picture of the sector.6% and allows it a quadruple play offering bundling mobile with fixed-line services. around 30% of the population. The South Korean Government is committed to transitioning the country to digital terrestrial. 2008 . The acquisition brought SKT’s stake in Hanaro to 43. with around 30% penetration (broadband subscribers as a percentage of population). Supported by a visionary government program of stimulating development through liberalisation. broadband Internet and voice telephony as packaged services from a single provider. KTF and LG Telecom. South Korea has one of the most vibrant and interesting telecommunications markets in the world. To foster a knowledge-based society. a creative and energetic private sector and a technology savvy population. By early 2008. Going into 2008. At the start of 2008. KTF about 30% and LG Telecom almost 20%. or 90% of households. For further information. SK Telecom held just over 50% of the mobile market. see Asia . Internet usage rate of the population ages 6 and over had reached 76. The announcement in February 2005 that the DPRK had nuclear weapons did nothing to help the flow of useful telecom technologies and expertise into the country. the move to ALAN and FttH services. the development of the telecoms sector in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) is seriously impeded by the country’s parlous economic state and the government’s general repression of communications. By contrast. Of particular interest are the developments in the broadband market including market interest in VDSL. the country’s second-largest broadband service provider. the shift away from DSL. were broadband subscribers. which provide TV. By 2007 the introduction of the faster HSDPA platform was making these services more attractive and the 3G market received a real boost as a result. the development of mobile DMB services and the launch of WiBro services.52 Asia-Pacific – North and South KoreaError! Bookmark not defined.5%.
other forms of broadband access including FttH increased by 1.Taiwan Taiwan has been very progressive in its efforts to liberalise the telecommunications industry and to create a positive regulatory regime.53 By mid-2007. KTF launched HSUPA in five major cities. The government has committed the country to being on a par with the US by 2010. After peaking at a penetration of 114% in late 2003. By October 2007. Going into 2008 broadband penetration had been lifted to over 20%. the legalisation of private cable TV operations.5G HSDPA network in just seven months. This provided a good indication of the alternative developments taking place in South Korea going into 2008. although a handful of big ones continue to dominate the market. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd.5 million in 2008 from 330. There are a large number of ISPs. Following the awarding of five licences for 3G services in 2002. Taiwan’s telecommunication infrastructure has been upgraded significantly. 4. structural reforms have been achieved. Taiwan has one of the highest TV penetrations in the world.11 million users to its 3. At the same time. In recent times. granting a de-facto monopoly in North Koreas’s almost non existent mobile market. This allowed KT and Hanaro to launch full IPTV services amid slowing growth in the traditional broadband and telephone markets. and over 60% of all Internet connections are broadband. including the capital Seoul. the promotion of digital television.the establishment of a public television system. South Korea had the fourth largest broadband subscriber base in the world.4 million broadband subscribers at the time. Of the 14. one of the new licensees. putting it 3 million behind third placed Germany. APBW. Taiwan’s mobile market has been a remarkable phenomenon. mainly on DSL subscriptions. undergoing a series of network modernisation projects over the last decade or so. 3G-based HSDPA services by SK Telecom and KTF show great success. The proportion of the population who are Internet users has exceeded 65%. In February 2008. Some 80% of all homes in Taiwan own PCs and around 70% of homes have Internet connections. The market newcomer passed the ‘one million subscribers’ milestone in late 2006. A law was passed by South Korea’s National Assembly in early 2008 allowing the country’s telecommunications companies to offer real-time broadcasting over their broadband networks.000 during 2007. KTF had signed up 2. Taiwan moved energetically into the ‘next generation’ of mobile services. KT expected the number of its IPTV subscribers to rise to 1. The market has moved rapidly away from dial-up access to broadband. Consistent with the performance of its impressive mobile sector. the increased popularity of satellite broadcasting. Asia-Pacific . Despite the odd bout of bureaucratic bickering. 2008 . Three other 3G licensees launched their 3G services in 2005 and now account for nearly 15% of the total mobile subscriber base. the penetration was sitting at around 105% going into 2008. Internet growth has been phenomenal in Taiwan.553 million. By early 2002. launched its CDMA2000 1x service in 2003. Egypt’s Orascom Telecoms Holding won a licence to launch a Greenfield operation in North Korea. having grown fivefold in just three years. and the employment of a whole range of new digital technologies. the country had reached the milestone of one mobile service for every person on the island. with SKT well on its way to commence commercial operation in 2008. The country had just over 14. with KTF planning to migrate all its subscribers to 3G by 2012 or earlier. change has been the order of the day in Taiwan’s television industry .8 million broadband subscribers at February 2008.000 at end-2007 when only VoD could be offered.4 million were DSL subscribers. While DSL subscribers fell by 686.
officials revealed that strong progress had been made to the digital connectivity plan. Incumbent mobile operators Chunghwa Telecom and Taiwan Mobile failed to secure spectrum at 2. The strategy largely comprises two parts. In early 2008. During 2007. and Far EasTone won with the lowest revenue-share bid of 4.89% of its WiMAX service revenue to the government.000 by end-2007. Chunghwa Telecom planned to invest NT$46 billion during 2008-2012 with the aim of achieving 80% broadband coverage by 2011.5 million units. with sales in 2008 expected to top 7. and the construction of a new cable connecting the 12 member nations and partially funded by the French government.Telecoms. but had not specified a timescale. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. The government announced plans to invest US$664 million on the development of WiMAX technology over the next few years.18%. The group won a WiMAX licence covering southern parts of the country in the first half of 2007. most islands are in a satellite footprint and both Fiji and Guam are connected by submarine cable. They were outbid by six companies. a dedicated Pacific Islands satellite system sponsored by Australia. with the change referring to combined direct and indirect holdings. Taiwan’s mobile operators sold over 7 million handsets between them in 2007. Asia-Pacific . Taiwan Mobile Company planned to accelerate the deployment of its fibre optic network with a NT$8 billion investment. 2008 . which walked away with the regional licences. The direct foreign ownership cap remained at 49%. To communicate outside the region.5G and WiMAX operations. mobile or Internet service. Mobile voice volume surpassed that of fixed voice communications for the first time in 2007. rising from less than 500.4 billion (US$340 million) in 2008 to boost its 3. The company aimed to have 1 million Multimedia-On-Demand subscribers on its fibre network by end-2008.54 See Asia . Following the 2007 Pacific Islands Forum in Tonga. FITEL. a number of the five operators awarded trial licences for mobile TV started operations with the DVB-H standard. Access to basic telecom services remains relatively expensive. Internet cafes and telecentres help to address the issue of low Internet penetration. PNG and Guam.South Pacific Islands: Less than half of all Pacific Islanders have a phone and generally only had one supplier for any particular fixed. although mobile and Internet penetration have gained traction in some of the more highly populated and developed islands such as Fiji. WiMAX equipment manufacturers and operators were encouraged to co-operate to support the government aims to make Taiwan a ‘role model’ for wireless broadband development in Asia. The highest bidder. Mobile and Broadband in Taiwan for further information. agreed to pay 12. Key highlights: In January 2008 the Taiwan Government raised the cap on foreign ownership in Chunghwa Telecom to 55% from the previous 49%. three Taiwanese operators announced their investment plans for network expansion: The Far Eastern Group planned to spend NT$10. The direct ownership cap in Taiwan Mobile and Far EasTone is also 49% with indirect foreign holding capped at 60%.5GHz. Penetration rates of telecom services in the region remain comparatively low.
There is strong interest amongst South Pacific operators regarding WiMAX as a communications solution. Mobile and Broadband Asia-Pacific . Mobile telephony is expected to continue outpacing growth in fixed-line connections as the market moves into 2008. No wonder the industry have been so to move to the next stage. after a lengthy process.Telecoms. Vodafone and Hutchison. where.Australia Mobile communications is still a huge telecommunications powerhouse. Telstra is still leading the market. The Pacific Islands Trade Agreement (PICTA) governs the tiny proportion of trade that is conducted between the islands themselves in the region. led by Telstra’s Next G network. for that matter). Several of the South Pacific nations are upgrading satellite links to outer islands. and mobile wireless computing. but Vodafone remains a marginal operation and there is continued speculation about the future of the Australian operation. In November 2007. For a long time Hutchison has been the only 3G operator. satellite communications plays a critical role in both the national and international infrastructure. and these. Market overview The islands comprised a total economic market of about US$20 billion. Both in 2G and 3G the players remain the same: Telstra. Vodafone and Hutchison have been leading the competition. revenues will come from mobility applications. installing wireless broadband and upgrading fixed-line broadband capability and some are rolling out high-speed ADSL2+ broadband. Data traffic both over the 2G and 3G networks is currently going thought the roof. The premium prices that the industry can charge are generating an ongoing flood of revenue into the industry. Optus. therefore. There are few submarine cables in the region. Optus’ revenues have been severely affected by the competition of 2005/06. combined. Belatedly Optus is now rushing into 3G with an $800 million investment in a regional network. In November 2007 Fiji’s first licensed VoIP service provider. still account for well over 90% of mobile revenues. 2008 . However. large parts of the 2G infrastructure have been written off and the spectrum on which these services are built has also long been written off. But 3G is now making serious progress with more than 4 million users. Furthermore. Fintel and Vodafone Fiji.55 Pacific leaders are aiming for a 2008 implementation of a major new undersea cable network and satellite links servicing island nations throughout the region. VoiceNetIP (Fiji) Ltd. See South Pacific Islands . like what happened in the fixed network. the Fiji interim government passed a New Telecommunications Bill that fully deregulated Fiji’s telecom sector. fuelled by the capped price plans. The Pacific Island Countries have three major options in terms of improving telecommunications access – satellite communications. however it is now facing increased competition and has lost its leading position to Telstra. in general they obviously still want to milk their 2G revenues for as long as possible. thanks to a very conservative strategy. Mobile telephony is expected to continue outpacing growth in fixed-line connections as the market moves into 2008. The New Bill effectively ends the exclusive privileges granted to Telecom Fiji. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. Let’s be honest – it doesn’t matter if a call is made on a 2G or a 3G network (or SMSs. They still have not introduced capped voice plans. submarine cable. planned to launch commercial operations after waiting three years for its VoIP licence. New technologies are gaining ground in some island countries.
Mobile substitution remains low as mobile call charges remain relatively high. and Hutchison has the highest. Mobile revenues will grow to over $12 billion in 2008. Margins for retailers are again under pressure and continue their downward spiral. There are now more than 20 million mobile subscriptions. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. Key highlights: Despite all the grandstanding on new data applications in 2008 the market will still be dominated by voice. indicating that a significant proportion of the population has more than one mobile subscription. Trends and Forecasts for further information. A million CDMA customers will have to be transferred over the next 12 months. The growth in prepaid has slowed down.Statistics. 2008 . indicating a ‘controlled’ level of competition.Mobile Communications . Telstra has the lowest ARPU. Growth in 3G is steady and is approaching 25% penetration. See Australia . indicating a stabilisation of competition in the market. Following a spurt in 2006 capped prices have not featured to any large degree in the competition scene. The players are attempting to rein in the advance of too much competition. which around the world is manifested in large numbers of customers moving to prepaid services. ARPUs have dropped again and are now around $46 per month. The handset market continues to be dominated by the operators and their bundled pricing strategies. the majority to Telstra’s Next G.56 The growth in prepaid has slowed down. The lack of a similar development in Australia indicates that the level of competition is maintained and controlled by the happy ‘quadropoly’. Nokia remains the key supplier. There are now more mobile subscribers than there are people in Australia. Fixed Mobile Convergence (FMC) is not expected to occur to any significant extent until 2010-2012. Together with SMS that will account for well over 90% of all mobile revenues.
MVNO networks are very slow to get of the ground. 2008 . despite a 2% overall market share loss in 2006/07. The current mobile market is a duopoly of Vodafone New Zealand and Telecom Mobile.9% in 2007/08 and 2. Key Highlights Vodafone took the number one spot in mobile subscribers in New Zealand back in 2003 and now holds 53% of the subscriber market. naked DSL. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd.New Zealand:Error! Bookmark not defined. However. including Telecom. based on traditional voice and texting services. But equally a range of innovative customer services can be built on the new wholesale products and perhaps more importantly open networks will create a great new environment for digital media. Competition can only be developed on top of these networks (MVNOs). Overall subscriber growth was unusually high at 11. network management. data and video services (triple play) and mobile services (quadruple play) are likely to develop on a more large-scale fashion in New Zealand in 2008 and 2009. With a reluctant Vodafone. Opportunities include the value-added infrastructure services such as data centres. The bundling of voice. and a wider range of regulated wholesale services which should begin to be introduced into the New Zealand market by the beginning of 2008. See New Zealand . tele-education and smart grid applications in which there will now be much wider scope for a variety of organisations to participate. The local mobile market is now approaching saturation and we expect overall market subscriber growth to drop to just 2. with overall subscriber growth in excess of 30% in 2006/07. New Zealand is finally catching up with the rest of the world in terms of broadband penetration. This will require ongoing regulations.57 Asia-Pacific .25 million subscribers. However. Orcon (now part of Kordia) and ihug. Mobile voice is becoming another commodity service. and there will be increasing pressure on Vodafone and Telecom to lower mobile call prices. The new environment is going to open up lots of new opportunities for everybody involved. These developments will be assisted by the government’s decision to proceed with the operational separation of Telecom and to introduce new services such as LLU. Only a year only ago. based on traditional voice and texting services. The FTA broadcasting networks are expected to see intense competition for viewers and advertising in 2008 and beyond.3% in 2008/09 as the market approaches saturation. e-health.6% in 2006/07. In the long term BuddeComm does not think it will be viable for more than two mobile network operators to survive in a nation as small as New Zealand. which will impact on their cost margins as they will be forced to put more money into programming and marketing.9% in 2007/08. etc. we expect overall market subscriber growth to drop to just 2. However. Voice and data bundling has already been introduced by a number of players. we would have put New Zealand two to three years behind Australia in terms of some of its broadband developments. it could take time before that actually starts to happen. content hosting. bringing the market to a total of 4.Mobile & Broadband Overview and Analysis for further information. there could be potential opportunity for a third operator to enter the market offering niche data services. In the long term BuddeComm does not think it will be viable for more than two mobile network operators to survive in a nation as small as New Zealand. which remain very high by international standards.
Broadband penetration levels do not appear high but improve once larger household sizes are accounted for. This is partly a result of very little fixed-line infrastructure. In addition. although as yet with a smaller subscriber total than Etisalat or Zain. this sector at least has been transformed with annual growth of over 100%. Yemen. causing annual growth of over 100%. Three quite equal operators were competing in the market but after the award of longer-term licences there are now three much less equally sized players.58 Middle East – Gulf The GCC countries have benefited to differing degrees. Zain of Kuwait and Etisalat of the UAE have continued their expansion abroad. Despite many channels being launched for political rather than commercial reasons.Telecoms Mobile & Broadband in The Gulf Countries for further information. in the Middle East. resulting in much greater competition. All countries realise the need to use the bonanza to upgrade their infrastructure. They are also keen to increase the ‘knowledge component’ of their economies as a bulwark against a potentially less profitable future. South Africa and Turkey. A third licence has been granted for Kuwait. all the GCC countries have liberalised their markets to a greater or lesser degree. particularly in the smaller and more urban countries.2 million. Even countries with less oil such as Bahrain or the emirate of Dubai have benefited from the wealth coming into the region. The broadband and Internet sectors are very different due to government restrictions on competition. The government is intending to introduce a level of private ownership into the incumbent operator and it will be interesting to see what effect this will have. extending into the fixed-line and Internet sectors. Zain now operates in 20 countries and Etisalat in 16. an annual increase of 106. with around 300 FTA channels plus pay TV operators. the mobile market has been one of the great successes of the post-war period. from the very high oil and gas prices. Africa and Asia. the competition is generating some very interesting players – news channels Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya and more entertainment-oriented channels from Rotana and others. hugely greater availability of services and introduced a degree of transparency to the market. depending on their reserves. particularly in the mobile sector. 2008 . while in Bahrain an auction for a third licence in imminent. The launch of services by MTN Irancell has transformed the Iranian mobile market.41%. with a proportional mobile subscriber base of 24. growing from nothing to 44% penetration in four years. Key highlights: The GCC countries are investing in NGN infrastructure. with FttH becoming a reality. In Iraq. This trend towards greater competition is still continuing. All countries have licensed at least two mobile operators. speeds and services. See Middle East . © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. All of these factors have had a strong bearing on their telecoms industries. Since the launch of a second mobile operator in September 2006. The remarkable regional DTH satellite TV market continues unabated. Qtel of Qatar is also expanding rapidly abroad. with new interests in Kuwait. The markets of Iraq. with GDP per capita of only around US$1. which will possibly result in a less competitive and more expensive market. Yemen and Iran are much less developed but are all quite exciting. Household broadband penetration in the UAE is at least 40%.000 is nevertheless also experiencing healthy growth in its mobile market. STC of Saudi Arabia has aspirations to join the club. The lack of development in Iran is government induced rather than a result of economic factors. also with interests in 16 countries (most of them acquired in 2007). Etisalat claimed to be the fastest growing mobile operator in the world in 2008.
unbundling local lines and licensing MVNOs. Saudi Arabia will see major players STC. one must always take into consideration larger household sizes. Lebanon is poised to choose which course it will take. Middle East – Mediterranean and Levant Countries Egypt. Etisalat and Zain go head to head. 2008 . The advisory commission has also advocated giving independent content providers a real chance to operate on broadcasting infrastructure.59 Saudi Arabia’s third mobile operator. indicate fertile ground for digital media developments. Israel. Jordan has mobile penetration of over 80%. In Israel regulatory policies have produced intense competition with several very strong players and a very advanced and highly developed market where telecommunications and media are converging in a digital environment. Vodafone Qatar expects to launch services early in 2009. Syria remains steadfastly against liberalisation and competition and consequently has an undeveloped market. the second Qatari mobile licence was the first to go to a European operator. Key highlights: Number portability and new licences have shaken up the Israeli fixed-line market. While fixed-line. Zain. is about to launch operations into an already very competitive market. Israel has widespread DBS and cable multi-channel TV and IPTV is also operational. Turkey has a unique position in the region with its links to the European Union. Internet and broadband penetration rates are low in the Arab countries of the region. together with Israel’s flourishing IT and venture capital sectors. penetration rates have leapt to nearly 170%. Of the many new licences auctioned in the region in the past few years. Egypt and Jordan are not rich countries but sensible policies have resulted in relatively open and developed markets. Jordan and Turkey have all benefited greatly from comparatively well developed regulatory systems and competitive markets resulting in strong investment in telecommunications. The report of an advisory commission has recommended key regulatory changes. Household broadband penetration is around 70%.Telecoms Mobile & Broadband in The Mediterranean & Levant countries for further information. See Middle East . young populations and a habit of sharing broadband and cable TV subscription amongst neighbours. probably inflated by non-Jordanian nationals and multi-SIM usage. Growth rates in all countries tend to reflect the degree of competition in the market rather than the penetration levels. Jordan’s thriving mobile market is likely to get even more competitive with the granting of its first MVNO operator licence in mid-2008. These figures. including creating a wholesale market in all sectors. Lebanon is a battle ground between groups that would stifle development in the manner of Syria and those that seek to liberalise the market and bring the benefits of mobile and broadband services to a larger proportion of the population. mobile penetration is well over 100% and 3G penetration around 30%. but still indicative of a highly developed market. Since the introduction of competition to the UAE mobile market. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. It has a healthy mobile market and growing broadband penetration. with incumbent Bezeq’s share of the market falling to levels around 85% by mid-2008. Egypt has emerged as the largest Arab Internet market thanks to the successful implementation of a free Internet strategy.
Following the resolution of its political stalemate in mid-2008. up from only 27% in early 2007. A string of potential buyers is ready to enliven the market and release its untapped potential. together with the expansion of broadband services and wireless networks. its growing economy and the alignment of its regulatory framework with that of the European Union. An independent regulator has made an impressive start.60 A second Egyptian fixed-line licence is planned for 2008. the Lebanese government will decide whether to privatise and liberalise its fixed line and mobile operators. Turkey’s communications market holds much potential given the size of its population. © BuddeComm & Chiltern Magazine Services Ltd. 2008 . The licensing and launch of a third network gave Egypt’s mobile market a significant boost to reach 43% penetration by March 2008.