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From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia Demand forecasting is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that consumers will purchase. Demand forecasting involves techniques including both informal methods, such as educated guesses, and quantitative methods, such as the use of historical sales data or current data from test markets. Demand forecasting may be used in making pricing decisions, in assessing future capacity requirements, or in making decisions on whether to enter a new market.
Contents
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1 Necessity for forecasting demand o 1.1 Stock effects o 1.2 Market response effect 2 Methods o 2.1 Methods that rely on qualitative assessment o 2.2 Methods that rely on quantitative data 3 Ex post studies of demand forecasts 4 See also 5 References
stock level of a particular sweater falls to the point where standard sizes are no longer available, sales of that item are diminished.
[edit] Methods
No demand forecasting method is 100% accurate. Combined forecasts improve accuracy and reduce the likelihood of large errors. Reference class forecasting was developed to reduce error and increase accuracy in forecasting, including in demand forecasting.[2][3]
Unaided judgment Prediction market Delphi technique Game theory Judgmental bootstrapping Simulated interaction Intentions and expectations surveys Conjoint analysis
Discrete Event Simulation Extrapolation Reference class forecasting Quantitative analogies Rule-based forecasting