Statistically Speaking
A Dictionary of Quotations

About the Compilers
Carl C Gaither was bom in 1944 in San Antonio, Texas. He has conducted research work for the Texas Department of Corrections and for the Louisiana Department of Corrections. Additionally he has worked as an Operations Research Analyst for the past ten years. He received his undergraduate degree (Psychology) from the University of Hawaii and has graduate degrees from McNeese State University (Psychology), North East Louisiana University (Criminal Justice), and the University of Southwestem Louisiana (Mathematical Statistics). Alma E Cavazos-Gaitherwas born in 1955 in San Juan, Texas. She has worked in quality control, material control, and as a bilingual data collector. She received her associate degree (Telecommunications)from Central Texas College.

Statistically Speaking
A Dictionary of Quotations
Selected and Arranged by

Carl C Gaither
and

Alma E Cavazos-Gaither

Institute of Physics Publishing Bristol and Philadelphia

@ 1996 IOP Publishing Ltd

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher. Multiple copying is permitted in accordance with the terms of licences issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency under the terms of its agreement with the Committee of ViceChancellors and Principals. IOP Publishing Ltd has attempted to trace the copyright holders of all the quotations reproduced in this publication and apologizes to copyright holders if permission to publish in this form has not been obtained.

British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.
ISBN 0 7503 0401 4

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Gaither, Carl C., 1944Statistically speaking : a dictionary of quotations / selected and arranged by Carl C. Gaither and Alma E. Cavazos-Gaither. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references (p. - ) and index. ISBN 0-7503-0401-4 (alk. paper) 1. Probabilities--Quotations, maxims, etc. 2. Mathematical statistics--Quotations, maxims, etc. I. Cavazos-Gaither, Alma E., 1955- 11. Title. QA273.63124 1996 519.5- 4 c 2 0 96-44176 CIP

Published by Institute of Physics Publishing, wholly owned by The Institute of Physics, London Institute of Physics Publishing, Techno House, Redcliffe Way, Bristol BS1 6NX, UK US Editorial Office: Institute of Physics Publishing, Suite 1035, The Public Ledger Building, 150 South Independence Mall West, Philadelphia, PA 19106, USA Typeset in TE3( using the IOP Bookmaker Macros Printed in Great Britain by J W Arrowsmith Ltd, Bristol

We respectfully dedicate this book to our parents

Mr and Mrs C C Gaither

and
Ms M Cavazos

CONTENTS

PREFACE ACTUARY ANALYSIS AVERAGE BAYESIAN CAUSE AND EFFECT CERTAINTY CHANCE COMMON SENSE CORRELATION DATA DEFINITIONS DEGREES OF FREEDOM DESIGN OF EXPERIMENTS DICE DISTRIBUTIONS ERROR EXPERIMENT FACTS FORECAST GAMBLING GRAPHICS HYPOTHESES IMPOSSIBLE INFINITE
Vii

xi
1 2 6 18 19 30 34 50 52 55 59 64 65 67 7 1 76 83 89 106 111 113 117 122 125

Viii

STATISTICALLY SPEAKING
126 127 134 136 140 142 148 150 151 154 156 158 183 187

KNOWLEDGE LAWS LIKELIHOOD MEASUREMENT MODELS OBSERVATIONS ORDER OUTLIERS PERCENTAGES PRAYER PREDICTION PROBABILITY PROBABLE PROBLEMS QUALITY CONTROL QUEUE RANDOMNESS REASON RECURSION REGRESSION RESEARCH RESIDUALS SAMPLE SCIENCE STATISTICAL STATISTICIAN STATISTICS SURVEYS AND QUESTIONNAIRES SYMMETRY TABLES TEACHING TESTING THEORY TRUTH

188 190 191 193 196 197
199 200 201 204 206 221 234 266 268 269 271 273 275 284

CONTENTS
VARIABILITY BIBLIOGRAPHY PERMISSIONS SUBJECT BY AUTHOR INDEX AUTHOR BY SUBJECT INDEX

i x
285 289 320 331 398

changes to punctuation. Frequently. Identify the source of the quotation. some are witty. Quotations from the most famous men and women lie in good company with those from unknown wits. Judicial opinions and speeches include. but none are frivolous. “Always verify your quotations” was advice given to Dean John William Bourgen. books on quotations will have subtle changes to the quotation. when possible. In summary. We attempted to verify each and every one of the quotations in this book to ensure that they are correct. brought together in one easily accessible form the best expressed thoughts that are especially illuminating and pertinent to the disciplines of probability and statistics. Statistically Speaking is a book that has many uses. We assure the reader that not one of the quotations in this book was created by us. Find sayings by other individuals on the same subject. The attributions give the fullest possible information that we could find to help you pinpoint the quotation in its appropriate context or discover more quotations in the original source. so that the compiler will know if someone used a quotation from ‘their’ book. but we are certain that you will find a great number of them here.and to quote correctly. slight changes to the wording. Discover what an individual has said on a subject. then fellow of Oriel College. We believe that Benjamin Franklin was correct when he said that “Nothing gives an author so much pleasure as to find his work respectfully quoted. Statistically Speaking is also an aid for the individual who loves to quote . for the first time..”. Identify the author of a quotation.PREFACE It has. others are wise. by Dr Martin Joseph Routh. You Can: 0 0 0 0 0 Statistically Speaking is a book of quotations. That advice was given over 150 years ago and is still true today. Check the precise wording of a quotation. Some of the quotations are profound. the date of the opinion or speech. even misleading information in the attribution.. xi . You may not find all the quoted ’jewels’ that exist.

the main library of the University of Mary-Hardin Baylor. A follow-up letter was sent to those who did not respond to our first letter. First. and the human resource library of the University of Texas at Austin. A quotation for a given subject may be found by looking for that subject in the alphabetical arrangement of the book itself. the main library. If you recall the name appearing in the attribution or if you wish to read all of an individual author’s contributions that are included hs in ti book then you will want to use the AUTHOR BY SUBJECT INDEX. Letters were written to each publisher or agent for which we could find an address. the medical library of the Virginia Commonwealth Medical School. Here the authors are listed alphabetically along with their quotations. We made a very serious attempt to contact the publishers for permission to use the quotations. you will find nine quotations listed under the heading likelihood. Carl Gaither Alma Cavazos-Gaither . if a quotation on likelihood is wanted. we thank the following libraries for allowing us to use their resources: the main library and the science library of The University of Richmond. A brief extract of each quotation is included in this index. and helping to sort the piles of correspondence generated in obtaining permissions. the main library and the science library of Baylor University.Xii STATISTKALLY SPEAKING How to Use This Book 1.). looking for books in the libraries. The arrangement of quotations in this book under each subject heading constitutes a collective composition that incorporates the sayings of a range of people. This index will help guide you to the specific statement that is sought. Thanks It is never superfluous to say thanks where thanks are due. the physics-math-astronomy library. the main library of the Virginia Commonwealth University. The birth and death dates are provided for the authors whenever we could determine them. 3. To find all the quotations pertaining to a subject and the individuals quoted use the SUBJECT BY AUTHOR INDEX. the main library of the Central Texas College. Next. we would like to thank each of the publishers who provided permission to use the quotations. When we could not find the information we included a ( . Additionally. To illustrate. I thank my stepdaughter Maritza Marie Cavazos for her assistance in tracking down incomplete citations. 2. In no way did we use a quotation without attempting to obtain prior approval. If no response was received we then assumed a calculated risk and incorporated the quotation.

High School Education Chapter 6 (p. they are right.95 and 4. Even when they are wrong. and'even the physician.99". the marketing director has his foot on the accelerator. Karpansky. The accountant said "4".The mathematician said "It all depends on your number base. ." The actuary said "What do you want it to add up to?" Unknown Actuaries are funny people. Unknown 1 . a statistician and a n actuary how much 2 plus 2 was. L. I told an actuary to go to the back of the queue. The managing director has his hands on the wheel. with the most surprising valuable results . 134) Someone once asked an accountant. the philanthropist. the business expert. a n engineer.05. He immediately came back and said that he couldn't-there was already someone there. . Unknown An insurance company is like an automobile going down the road at high speed." The engineer took out his slide-rule and said "approximately 3. the actuary. The statistician consulted his tables and said. a mathematician. The finance director is heaving with all his might on the hand-brake and the actuary is in the back screaming directions from a map he has just made by looking out of the rear window.ACTUARY Analytical and graphical treatment of statistics is employed by the economist. "I am 95% confident that it lies between 3.

Cardozo. 14) The technical analysis of any large collection of data is a task for a highly trained and expensive man who knows the mathematical theory of statistics inside and out. He could distinguish and divide A hair 'twixt south and south-west side. Mathematics: Queen and Servant o Science (p. March 1931 (p. Profoundly skill'd in Analytick. Benjamin N. Allen. Bell. 689) 2 .D. Number 5.G. Samuel Hudibras Part I. 65 The repetition of a catchword can hold analysis in fetters for f&y years and more. Canto I. Statistics for Economists Chapter I (p. 383) f He was in Logick. cute little battleships. 1. and tapering rows of sturdy soldiers in diversified uniforms-interesting enough in a colored Sunday supplement. Butler. Otherwise the outcome is likely to be a collection of drawings-quartered pies. Justice Holmes Volume 44. a great Critick. Eric T. Harvard Law Review Mr. R.ANALYSIS Not even the most subtle and skilled analysis can overcome completely the unreliability of basic data. but hardly the sort of thing from which to draw reliable inferences.

. hardly an argument at all. Eliot. Quoted in Paul Dickson’s The Official Rules (M-126) The mere fact of naming an object tends to give definiteness to our conception of it-we have then a sign that at once calls up in our minds the distinctive qualities which mark out for us that particular object from all others. Holmes. . the figures that are obviously correct contain errors.. (2) It is customary for a decimal to be misplaced. G. Deakly. . 12) But to argue. .W. Sherlock in Arthur Conan Doyle’s The Complete Sherluck Holmes The Man with the Twisted Lip . will. Keynes. . delay further analysis for fifty years. Holmes. is . . Howard Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Trade-offs (p. from the mere fact that a given event has a frequency of 10 percent in the thousand instances under observation. Keeney. or even in a million instances. but which. Ralph Raiffa. (3) An error that can creep into a calculation. it is likely to have a frequency near to 1/10 in a further set of observations. John Maynard Treatise on Probability Chapter XXXIII (p. Jr. by their very felicity. be wary of analysts that try to quantify the unquantifiable. .C. (1)In any collection of data. 251) It is not the first use but the tiresome repetition of inadequate catchwords which I am observing-phrases which originally were contributions. . 407) . Also. it will always be in the direction that will cause the most damage to the calculation. 230-1) I have seen too much not to know that the impression of a woman may be more valuable than the conclusion of an analytical reasoner. without analysis of the instances. George The George Eliot Letters Volume I1 (p. that . O.ANALYSIS 3 Murphy’s Laws of Analysis. Collected Legal Papers (pp.

Psychological. . would be open to its eyes. or other certain Truths. . poetic analysis. Mill. Newton. the habit of analysis has a tendency to wear away the feelings. and in drawing general Conclusions from them by Induction. like the past. . John Stuart Autobiography V (p. that it enables us mentally to separate ideas which have only casually clmg together . at a given instant. Christopher Christopher Murlowe's Doctor Faustus Scene 1 . . John Stuart Autobiography V ( p . and the future. Cross-reference analysis. Pierre-Simon A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities ( p . Sherman. Susan With AngerMrith Love The Fourth Wall Stanza 2 . . Sir Isaac Opticks Book 111. Mill. Part I Analysis. For such an intelligence nothing would be uncertain. ought ever to precede the Method of Composition. .. 2) Sweet Analytics. Marlowe. philosophical. could comprehend all the forces by which nature is animated and the respective situation of the beings that make it up. but the picturing of the event. Not the event. would encompass in the same formula the movements of the greatest bodies of the universe and those of the lightest atoms. 116) The very excellence of analysis .4 STATISTICALLY S P E A K " An intelligence that. This Analysis consists in making Experiments and Observations. 116) As in Mathematics. the Investigation of difficult Things by the Method of Analysis. 'tis thou hast ravish'd me . if moreover it were vast enough to submit these data to analysis. tends to weaken and undermine whatever is the result of prejudice. and admitting of no Objections against the Conclusions but such as are taken from Experiments. so in Natural Philosophy. The age of analysis. Laplace..

”I mean he believes that every $50 raise he doesn’t give you increases future profits by the same amount. 10) It always helps to know the answer when you are working toward the solution of a problem. Unknown It requires a very unusual mind to undertake the analysis of the obvious. 4) . Number 1.” Thomsett. whether statistical or non-statistical. nothing like that.“ the manager told a new employee. Michael C . Alfred North Science and the Modern World (p. John W. Annals of Mathematical Statistics The Future of Data Analysis Volume 33. The Little Black Book of Business Statistics (p. and “theory”. much of it must be a matter of judgment.ANALYSIS 5 “Our company’s president built a financial empire on the 50-50 future theory. Whitehead.” the manager answered. Tukey. will have to guide. ”Oh. not command. 74) If data analysis is to be well done. March 1962 (p. you mean he used probability analysis to forecast and make business decisions?” ”No.

M. 16) 6 . the observance of the mean is Greatness of Soul.H. . Atherton. Atherton. . VI1 The average intelligence is always shallow. Thomas D. . but you can’t find a parent who will acknowledge that it is his child . and in electric climates very excitable. you are running about average. Wall Street Joumal Notable and Quotable December 17. Gertrude Senator North Book 11. Chapter 7 . Gertrude Senator North Book 11. but they are more hysterical than the average because they have the opportunity their constituents lack. Alderson. Smallness of Soul.AVERAGE If at first you don’t succeed. the excess a sort of Vanity. of shouting in public. Bailey. . Aristotle The Nicomachean Ethics Book 11. 1962 (p. and the deficiency. as it may be called. A-4) In respect of honour and dishonour. Quoted in Paul Dickson’s The Ojicial Explanations (p. IX There must be such a thing as a child with average ability.

is different from urine during digestion. and is often an excuse for laziness. for urine. Bowley. leads. Chapter I (p. when fasting. iz tew spark two girls at onest. Louis D. the use of averages in physiology and medicine usually gives only apparent accuracy to the results. but that is not a good way to live. The Mathematical Gazette Volume 12. it is the nature of an abbreviation. and preserve a good average. and who believed he could thus present an analysis of average European urine! Bernard. . Billings.AVERAGE 7 Another very frequent application of mathematics to biology is the use of averages which. making an average of three meals per day. have great inertia. Mason‘s Brandies: A Free Man’s Life (p. 421) I abhor averages. July 1925 #319 (p. we get an analysis of a urine which simply does not exist. A startling instance of this kind was invented by a physiologist who took urine from a railroad station urinal where people of all nations passed. 145) . 8) Of itself an arithmetic average is more likely to conceal than to disclose important facts. Number 77. 134-5) About the hardest thing a phellow kan do. in medicine and physiology. By destroying the biological character of phenomena. Arthur L. I like the individual case. Claude An Introduction to the Study of Experimental Medicine (pp. Elements of Statistics Part I. such as we always obtain in measuring social phenomena. necessarily to error . Bowley. 134) Chemical averages are also often used. so to speak. Brandies. Arthur L. Claude An Introduction to the Study of Experimental Medicine (p. Quoted in Alpheus T. Bernard. If we collect a man’s urine during twenty-four hours and mix all this urine to analyze the average. A man may have six meals one day and none the next. Josh Old Probability: Perhaps Rain-Perhaps Not May 1870 Great numbers and the averages resulting from them.

. 23-4 The best way of increasing the [average] intelligence of scientists would be to reduce their number. the criminal intellect. . The concept of average was developed in the Rhodian laws as to the distribution of losses in maritime risks. Journal of the American Statistical Association The Statistical View of Nature Volume 31. Freidman.1972 (p. Dickens. Cohen. 57) .June 1936 (p. Carrel. the average rate for the year as a whole.A daily plague. Number 194. Charles The Work of Charles Dickens The Mystery of Edwin Drood xx The plain man is the basic clod From which we grow the demigod. Foss. is not too bad. though on the high side. 49) . Alexis Man the Unknown Chapter 2 4 (p. And the average man is curled The hero stuff that rules the world.8 S TATlS TICAL LY S PE AKlNG Have shaving too entailed upon their chins. Sam Walter Back County Poems Memorial Day Stanza 2 True. but that is like assuring the nonswimmer that he can safely walk across a river because its average depth is only 4 feet. Morris R. Byron. Lord Don Juan Canto X I V . . which in the aggregate May average on the whole with parturition. 328) . Martin Newsweek Irresponsible Monetary Policy January 10. which its own professed students perpetually misread. because they persist in trying to reconcile it with the average intellect of average men instead of identifying it as a horrible wonder apart. .

261) My friends at Rhodes made me so. Froude. not excluding the two boys were the latter. James Anthony Short Studies on Great Subjects A Fortnight in Kerry (p. not the units. Galton.AVERAGE 9 Unfortunately. 195) We have to consider the million. An average is but a solitary fact. James Anthony Short Studies on Great Subjects The Science of History (p. whose retrospect of Switzerland was that. which nearly corresponds to the observed one. 62) . 26) There is no medium at sea. starts potentially into existence. Froude. You are either dead sick or ravenous. if its mountains could be thrown into its lakes. not the exceptions. the average. Froude. Froude. Francis Natural Inheritance Scheme of Distribution and of Frequency (p. I cost as much as sixteen gold gods of average size. Their souls seem as dull to the charm of variety as that of the native of one of our flat English counties. 35) It is difficult to understand why statisticians commonly limit their enquiries to Averages. the average of one generation need not be the average of the next. an entire Normal Scheme. and we. two nuisances would be got rid of at once. James Anthony Short Studies on Great Subjects Lucian (p. James Anthony Short Studies on Great Subjects On Progress (p. whereas if a single other fact be added to it. and do not revel in more comprehensive views. Galton. Francis Natural Inheritance The Charms of Statistics (p. 225) The knowledge of an average value is a meager piece of information.

270) They had on average. bunting with a man on first loses a lot of runs. Horace The Complete Works of Horace The Golden Mean (p. about a quarter of a suit of clothes and one shoe apiece. Tanur’s Statistics: A Guide to the Unknown Statistics. Walter in Harry Hopkins’ The Numbers Game: The Bland Totalitarianism Chapter 12.10 STATlSTlCALLY SPEAKING But though to visit the sins of the fathers upon the children may be a morality good enough for divinities. 425) If a man stands with his left foot on a hot stove and his right foot in a refrigerator. on the average. looking as if he were working a hard sum in arithmetic. Faithful Partners Counter Attack (p. it doesn’t increase the probability of scoring at least one run in the inning. fixed limits on either side of which right living cannot get a foothold. which was what I meant to speak about. rather than a l cold.W. and it therefore does not mend the matter. Tales of 0. Holmes. Henry. On the average. and Some Other Things There is a mean in things. He was trying very solemn. Hooke. the statistician would say that. 6 ) . One chap was sitting on the floor of the aisle. he’s comfortable. 0. calculating average of a l the virtues! Harte.M. is one of the most extraordinary subjects of observation and study. Robert Quoted in J. it is scorned by average human nature. Hardy. Heller. Henry Holding Up a Train But an average. to pull a lady’s number two shoe on a number nine foot. Thomas Tess of the d’Urbervilles XI Give me a man that is capable of a devotion to anything. O. The Autocrat of the Breayast Table Chapter 6 On the average. Francis Bret Two Men of Sandy Bar Act IV (p. Sports.

Jacobs. "it's a little bit more than a half." Juster. William Ralph Outspoken Essays Our Present Discontents (p.9) The average man is rich enough when he has a little more than he has got." he said thoughtfully. as I explained. ." he repeated. July 1900 (p. Aldous Brave New World (p. "I beg your pardon?" said Milo. . all within two years of the same age. public opinion.. father. and not till then. "It's .195-6) . impertinent. we're just the average family. March 1907 "Pardon me for staring.58.36) Fertilize and bokanovskify-in other words.and especially as many below him as above him." .58. "mother. Elbert The Philistine: A Periodical o Protest f Volume X I .. and then searches for proof to bolster his opinion. Inge. after he had been staring for some time. Joseph American Magazine The Middle American Volume 63. and certain future of the Middle American. a vulgar. and 2." replied the child from the left side of his mouth (which happened to be the only side of his mouth).58 to be precise. Norton The Phantom Tollbooth (pp. William Ralph Outspoken Essays Patriotism (pp.AVERAGE 11 The average man believes a thing first. There are as many above him as below him." said Milo.'' "It's . anonymous tyrant who deliberately makes life unpleasant for anyone who is not content to be the average man. Hubbard. present condition. "Oh. Huxley. I'm the . Inge. "out I've never seen half a child before. multiply by seventy-twand you get an average of nearly eleven thousand brothers and sisters in a hundred and fifty two batches of identical twins.38-9) Such is the past career. 7 ) .58 children-and.

nobody has an average education. Krutch. Leacock. Norton The Phantom Tollbooth (p. Stephen Literary Lapses A Manual of Education (p.12 STATlSTlCALLY SPEAKING “But averages aren’t real. . the All very old men have splendid educations. is henceforth to be left to the law of averages. but you happened to be with four other people who had ten dollars apiece. for centuries the principal military skill. . ”average”. then you’d each have an average of eight dollars. . 196) . Keegan. Joseph Wood Human Nature and the Human Condition Chapter 5 (p. Frequently they make no distinction between what is “normal” and what is ”usual”. if you didn’t have any money at all.” ”That may be so. And since some men have only one leg. or none.” he agreed. John The Face o BattIe (p. ”but they’re also very useful at times. Isn’t that right?” Juster. 158) . we are pleased to accept you as a first-class risk. 76) . Leacock. . ”they’re just imaginary. Stephen Literary Lupses Insurance up to Date (p. For instance. Krutch.” objected Milo.-We beg to acknowledge your letter of application and cheque for fifteen dollars. ’hitting the target’. 127) Dear Sir. Joseph Wood Human Nature and the Human Condition Chapter 5 (p. 75) question ”How many legs does a normal man have?” should be answered by finding a statistical average. 307) f One need not accept Shaw’s own estimate of his intellectual equipment to see that the doctor’s remark cut through a confusion in which psychologists and sociologists flounder. all men who apparently know nothing else have thorough classical educations. After careful comparison of your case with the average modem standard. this would lead inevitably to the conclusion that a ”normal” man is equipped with one and some fraction legs. or ”statistically probable”.

. I ask. Thomas Gravity's Rainbow (p. 207) Quetelet.C. Moroney.1972 For.. The Education of T. M. Blaise Pascal's Pensees Section I. The New York Times Statement from PreElection Interviews with Nixon Outlining 2nd Term Plans Page 20. Richard M. 43 . what is man in Nature? A cypher compared with the Infinite. Nixon. Pynchon. MITS (p. Facts from Figures On the Average (p. 34) A want of the habit of observing and an inveterate habit of taking averages are each of them often equally misleading. a n All compared with Nothing. it was recognized that those whose goods were sacrificed had a claim in equity to indemnification at the expense of those whose goods were safely delivered. Lillian R. l'homme moyen [the average man] you know . when the hazards of sea voyages were much more serious than they are today. Pascal.. From this Latin word derives our modem word average.J. Adolphe A Treatise on Man and the Develupment o His Faculties (p. This sea damage to cargo in transit was known as 'havaria' and the word came naturally to be applied to the compensation money which each individual was called upon to pay. Florence Notes on Nursing Chapter XI11 The average American is just like the child in the family.AVERAGE What does this mean for The Average Man? 13 Lieber. The value of the lost goods was paid for by agreement between all of those whose merchandise had been in the same ship. it suggests Huverie-average. . a mean between nothing and all. 71) In former times. Column 8 November 10. Nightingale. 100) f . when ships buffeted by storms threw a portion of their cargo overboard.

59) Scientific laws. 26) "You can't fight the law of averages. 5 It is a well-known statistical paradox that the average age of women over forty is under forty . Slonim. or statistical averages. H. 191) The Normal is the good smile in a child's eyes-all right. either differential equations. Grover Quoted in Thomas Pynchon's Slow Learner The Secret Integration (p. Peter Two Plays by Peter Shafer Equus Act I. . are different in form from the common-sense rules which have exceptions: they are always. at least in physics. average minds discuss events. The Analysis of Matter Chapter XIX (p. It is also the dead stare in a million adults. 142) . small minds discuss people." Grover said." Snood. It is no mean happiness therefore. Russell. Shaffer. Bertrand A. Rickover. . It both sustains and kills-like a God. Shakespeare. 170) Great minds discuss ideas. it is also the Average made lethal. Redfield. 1.14 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING Make sure that the real average is what you are dealing with. It is the Ordinary made beautiful. William The Complete Works o William Shakespeare f Merchant of Venice Act I. Scene 2. Morris James Sampling (p. Factors of Growth in a Law Practice (p. "you can't fight the curve. The Saturday Evening Post The World of the Uneducated November 28.G. They are as sick that surfeit with too much as they that starve with nothing. to be seated in the mean: superfluity comes sooner by white hairs. when we have reason to think them accurate. Roy A. Scene 19 Nerissa. but competency lives longer.1959 (p.

Stamp. and about half our babies below average weight. Tsu. there isn’t exactly an average”. Stoppard. This is only one of many similarly disturbing facts. which ensures that he will not upset himself by losing too much nor upset his opponent by winning too often. or rather a tendency.-In your issue of December 31 you quoted Mr. or let us say a probability. about half our coal scuttles below average capacity. January 4. Lao Tao Te Ching (Forty-one) . 253) Sir. The Encyclopaedia Britannica 11th Edition Probability The wise student hears of the Tao and practices it diligently. or at any rate a mathematically calculable chance. and with an appearance of great intellectual discomfort he assures you the number varies so much. The only remedy would seem to be to repeal the law of averages. Tom Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead Act One (p. ”Some days it’s a lot.1954 (p. if I have got this right. The average student hears of the Tao and gives it thought now and again. About half the church steeples in the country are below average height. and some days only a few. 7) GUIL: The law of averages.S. means that if six monkeys were thrown up in the air for long enough they would land on their tails about as often as they would land on their Stoppard.AVERAGE 15 Ask a fenyman or a toll-keeper how many visitors come through daily on an average. B.Morris as saying that many people are disturbed that about half the children in the country are below the average in reading ability. Stewart. Alan The Times Averages Monday. 13) The equanimity of your average tosser of coins depends upon a law. Tom Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead Act One (p. Josiah Some Economic Factors in Modern Life Chapter VI1 (p. 19) Expectation in the general sense may be considered as a kind of average.

we can afford to be perfectly indifferent to the fate.] Unknown If we start with the assumption.000 words a day-nothing for Sir Walter Scott. and Design Section 4 (p. The average man don’t like trouble and danger.400 words per sitting of four or five hours. nothing for Louis Stevenson. London. 239) . [Always choose the middle road. here in Florence (1904) my average seems to be 1. and as I did 200. . and I was writing the book called Following the Equator. grounded on experience. younger than 1 am now. that there is uniformity in this average. Mark Mark Twain Laughing 1904. my average was 1. Twain.16 STATlSTlCALLY SPEAKlNG The only very marked difference between the average civilized man and the average savage is that the one is guilded and the other painted. Mark The Autobiography of Mark Tkuain Chapter 29 The average man’s a coward . but quite handsome for me. #370 (p. Venn. I worked every night from eleven or twelve until broad day in the morning. In 1897. of the individuals which compose the average. when we were living in Tedworth Square. by hundreds of years. Causation. Twain. Mark Huckleberry Finn XXII In medio fortissimus ibis. marvelously young. the average was more than 3. The Logic of Chance Chance. younger than I shall ever be again. as regards causation. and so long as this is secured to us. . 98) I was very young in those days.000 words in the sixty days. nothing for plenty of other people.800 words a day. Twain. J. exceedingly young.

J.AVERAGE 17 Why do we resort to averages at all? Venn. the one thing cannot take the place of the other for purposes in general. but only for this or that specific purpose. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society On the Nature and Uses of Averages Volume 54. 118) . 429) How can a single introduction of our own [average]. Lady Bracknell. that it can not possibly do so. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society On the Nature and Uses of Averages Volume 54. Venn. . 430) We have seen that man in general. Oscar The Importance of Being Earnest: A Trivial Comedy for Serious People Act I11 (p. Lady Bracknell [with a shiver. one with another.and that a fictitious one. possibly take the place of the many values which were actually given to us? And the answer surely is. . Moncrieff and I are engaged to be married. Wilde. but the number of engagements that go on seems to me considerably above the proper average that statistics have laid down for our guidance. or (as it is expressed) on the average. J. 1891 (p. Voltaire Philosophical Dictionary Miscellany Cecily: Mr. crossing to the sofa and sitting down]: I do not know whether there is anything peculiarly exciting in the air of this particular part of Hertfordshire. does not live above two-and-twenty years . 1891 (p.

Luchenbruch. 158) 18 . Bayesians should also take care to distinguish their various denominations of Bayesian Epistmologis ts. . Joseph Statistical Science Comment Volume 1. but I have not seen any. . because they impose a discipline on the user. (Actually.BAYESIAN I am not altogether facetious in suggesting that.S. Bartlett. There might also be some specialized terminology for Bayesians. February 1986 (p. while non-Bayesians should make it clear in their writings whether they are non-Bayesian Orthodox or non-Bayesian Fisherian. I prefer ”a skewer of statisticians”.197) I believe that assumptions are useful to state in statistical practice. and Bayesian Savage. Wan& Chamont Sense and Nonsense of Statistical Inference (p. Peter Unknown source . but that’s another topic for another time. Once a full set of assumptions is stated. Number 1. there are at least 46. the conclusion should follow. 12) I have seen the collective noun for statisticians cited as ”a variance of statisticians”.) Kadane. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Discussion on Professor Pratt’s Paper (p. M. only a Bayesian analysis can meet this standard. Bayesian Orthodox.656 varieties of Bayesians.

The first cause. Is everything subject to divine Providence? Thus all the action of men must necessarily be referred to seven causes: chance. cannot have a random effect in its own order. Disclose her working hand. we speak of it as fortuitous or a chance happening . Mark The Poetical Works of Mark Akenside and John Dyer Hymn to Science in Works of the English Poets (p. a particular cause another. and through the sky. reason. Akenside. Let number’s figure motion’s laws Revealed before me stand. as when wood dowsed with water will not catch fire. nature. Thomas Summa Theologiae Part I Question 22. Aquinas. An effect can be haphazard with respect to the plan of the second. . These to great Nature’s secret apply. God‘s Providence Article 2. compulsion. however. but not of the first.CAUSE AND EFFECT Give me to learn each secret cause. since all particular causes are comprehended in its causality. And round the Globe. . 357) The universal cause is one thing. and desire. When an effect does escape from a system of particular causality. habit. Aristotle The Art of Rhetoric Book I. Chapter X 19 . For an effect is not taken out of the scope of one particular cause save by another particular cause which prevents it. anger.

Cicero Epistolae ad atticum Book IX. Bacon. they forever escape us in the sciences of living as well as in those of inorganic bodies. Section 5 . Gertrude Senator North Book 11. 288) .S. Bernard. Ten Nights in a Bar Room and What I Saw There Night the Fifth The law of cause and effect does not hide in the realm of the unexpected when intelligent beings go looking for it. 66) Every effect becomes a cause. Aurelius. the present contains nothing more than the past. 17) First causes are outside the realm of science. and the enlarging of the bounds of human empire.STATISTICALLY SPEAKING Only a few look at causes. T. Buddhist Maxim The Causes of events are ever more interesting than the events themselves. and trace them to their effects. Claude A n Introduction to the Study of Experimental Medicine (p. to the effecting of all things possible. . Henri Creative Evolution (p. and secret motions of things. Arthur. Marcus The Meditations of the Emperor Antonius Marcus Aurelius Book IV. Francis New Atlantis (p. Atherton. . and what is found in the effect was already in the cause. Bergson. Section 45 The end of our foundation is the knowledge of causes. . . XXI In the series of things those which follow are always aptly fitted to those which have gone before .

. Benjamin Sybil or the Two Nations Book V. Benedict Ethics Conceming God Axiom I11 . From a given determined cause an effect follows of necessity. . Colton. . . Leonardo The Notebooks of Leonardo da Vinci Philosophy (p. that all men are born ignorant of the causes of things. Disraeli. and that all have a desire of acquiring what is useful. therefore. understand the cause and you will have no need of the experiment. Benedict Ethics Conceming God Definition I III. I11 (p. and on the other hand. Benedict Ethics Conceming God Appendix But great things spring from causalities. Charles Caleb Lacon: or many things in a few words (p. is a surer guide than imagination. experience. but the causes of few. if no determined cause is granted. 64) I understand that to be CAUSE OF ITSELF (causa sui) whose essence involves existence and whose nature cannot be conceived unless existing. Cicero Orationes Philippicae V We know the effects of many things. and inquiry than conjecture. .CAUSE A N D EFFECT 21 The most important events are often determined by very trivial causes. 345) . da Vinci. 111) There is no result in nature without a cause. it is impossible that an effect should follow. de Spinoza. de Spinoza. de Spinoza.

1. Emerson. Emerson. possessing in a quiet state. Dryden. for the effect already blooms in the cause.701 f Cause and effect are two sides of one fact. Emerson. Fearless of fortune and resigned to fate. John The Poetical Works of Dryden Translation of Virgil The Second Book o the Georgics. Ralph Waldo Essays Compensation Do not clutch at sensual sweetness until it is ripe on the slow tree of cause and effect. the chancellors of God. Ralph Waldo Essays Prudence Cause and effect. Emerson. some at cards. who studying Nature’s laws. some at the Stock Exchange. Through known effects can trace the secret causeHis mind. means and ends.22 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING Happy the man. Ralph Waldo Essays Circles Cause and effect. the fruit in the seed. the end preexists in the means. Ralph Waldo Essays Self-Reliance Some play at chess. Emerson. I prefer to play at Cause and Effect. seed and fruit. Ralph Waldo The Journals of Ralph Waldo Emerson (p. 234) . cannot be severed.

CAUSE A N D EFFECT 23 Shallow men believe in luck. instead of confining yourself to the task of placing upon record that severe reasoning from cause to effect which is really the only notable feature about the thing. 12) Causation depends on a n extraordinary turning of reality at a particular instant such that one event transmutes into another. which may be discovered by observation. O. Holmes. Heise. Jean Baptiste Joseph Analytical Theory of Heat Preliminary Discourse Every effect has its cause. David R. but are subject to simple and constant laws. 6) But he who. Strong men believe in cause and effect. . .Holmes. Fourier. James Anthony Short Studies on Great Subjects Calvinism (p.W. . unconscious of the cause. Emerson. . 191-2) Primary causes are unknown to us. Sees but effects. The Complete Poetical Works o Oliver Wendell Holmes f A Metrical Essay . Ralph Waldo Conduct o Life f Worship (pp. Causal Analysis (p. blind to universal laws. believe in circumstances . the study of them being the object of natural philosophy. Sherlock in Arthur Conan Doyle’s The Complete Sherlock Holmes The Adventure of the Copper Beeches . you have erred perhaps in attempting to put colour and life into each of your statements. Froude.

This is as perfect an instance of the relations of cause and effect as any which we know either by sensation or reflection. my dear Watson. and another ball moving toward it with rapidity. David An Enqiiiy Concerning Human Understanding Section IV (p. and that chance. Hume. Sherlock in Arthur Conan Doyle’s The Complete Sherlock Holmes The Adventure of the Second Stain In a word. 186-7) . then. 99) All effects follow not with like certainty from their supposed causes. and he meets a violent death during the very hours when we know that the drama was being enacted.” Holmes. No figures could express them. and means not any real power which has anywhere a being in nature. Hume. 35) It is universally allowed that nothing exists without a cause of its existence. It is for us to find the connection. the two events are connected-must be connected. No. They strike. David An Enqiiiy Concerning Human Understanding Section VI11 (p. Hume. Hume. 115) Here is a billiard ball lying on the table. David An Enquiy Concerning Human Understanding Section X (p. the ball which was formerly at rest now acquires a motion. when strictly examined. every effect is a distinct event from its cause.24 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING “A coincidence! Here is one of the three men who we had named as possible actors in this drama. David An Enqiiiy Concerning Human Understanding Section IV (p. This is the sum of all our experimental conclusions. 28) From causes which appear similar we expect similar effects. David An Enquiy Concerning Human Understanding An Abstract of A Treatise of Human Nature (pp. is a mere negative word. The odds are enormous against its being a coincidence. Hume.

Lee. Georg Lichtenberg: Aphorisms B Letters Aphorisms (p. is coextensive with human experience. 1 . and never as a physical end. Number 3. Hannah Famham The Log Cabin. Lichtenberg. William The Principles of Psychology V With earth’s first clay they did the last man knead. or. Immanuel Philosophical Writings The Critique of Judgment Critique of Teleological Judgment 63. And the first morning of creation wrote What the last dawn of reckoning shall read. John Stuart system of Logic Book 111. September 1884 Pure mathematics can never deal with the possibility. William Unitarian Review and Religious Magazine The Dilemma of Determinism Volume XXII. James. so in the darkness of metaphysical criticism all causes are obscure. And there of the last harvest sowed the seed. with the possibility of an intuition answering to the conceptions of the things. he could be named the causesearcher within the hierarchy of minds.CAUSE AND EFFECT 25 As in the night all cats are gray. V. fn Causes are often disproportionate to effects. all the finality there observed must always be regarded simply as formal. James. The World before You Part the Second Man is a creature who searches for causes. Hence it cannot touch the question of cause and effect. 62) The truth that every fact which has a beginning has a cause. and consequently. Kant. that is to say. Mill.

Non-existence of effect is not instrumental towards the non-existence of cause. but the enfeebling power of the fountain is well known.] Pascal. 287 Rem Viderunt.26 STATlSTlCALLY SPEAKING Before the effect one believes in other causes than after the effect. Nietzsche. Causomnon Viderunt. Plotinus The Six Enneads Third Ennead First Tractate. but non-existence of cause is instrumental towards non-existence of effect. Pettie. Prakash. [They saw the thing.5 If the law of the relation of effect and cause does not exist. Polybius The Histories Book XI. sutch wilbe the effect. for every event whether probable or improbable must have some cause. 111. 38. 322) . then the non-existence of cause will follow also from non-existence of effect. Blaise The Thoughts of Blaise Pascal On the Necessity of the Wager #235 Sutch as the cause of every thing is. Friedrich The Complete Works of Friedrich Nietzsche The JoyfulWisdom. Fate. it is easy to discover the nearest determinants of any particular act or state to trace it plainly to them. Satya Founders of Sciences in Ancient India (p. Number 217 The cause is hidden. but not the cause. Ovid Metamorphoses IV.1. 1 We must rather seek for a cause. George A Petite Pallace of Pettie His Pleasure Volume I Germanicus and Agrippina On the assumption that all happens by Cause.

tollitur flectus. William The Complete Works o William Shakespeare f Hamlet. Bertrand A. . Shakespeare. 3 c . Scene 2. for no more by the law of reason than by the law of nature can anything occur without a cause. 102) . Rousseau. Jacques Rohault’s System o Natural Philosophy f Volume I. Shakespeare. and now remains That we find out the cause of this effect. Latin Post hoc. Latin Every Effect Presupposes some Cause. . the effect is removed. [After this.CAUSE AND EFFECT 27 Sublata causa. 1. Rohault. Scene 1. Jean Jacques The Social Contract Book 11. Or rather say. ergo propter hoc. 100 1 There is occasions and causes why and wherefore in all things. Chapter 5.l. The Analysis of Matter Chapter XI (p. Russell. Prince of Denmark Act 1 . William The Complete Works o William Shakespeare f The Life of King Henry the Fifth A t V.] Proverb. . . 6 . Part I. the cause of this defect. Chapter 4 But we are not likely to find science returning to the crude form of causality believed in by Fijians and philosophers of which the type is ”lightning causes thunder”. [The cause being taken away.] Proverb. For this effect defective comes by cause. therefore because of this.

William The Complete Works of William Shakespeare The Tragedy of King Richard the Third Act I. snatches at the first and most easily understood approximation. any one of which may be separately conceived as the cause of it. Chapter 1 Everything can be a "that". it is the cause. William The Complete Works of William Shakespeare Othello. Therefore it is said "'That' comes ti" from 'this' and 'this' comes from 'that"'-which means "that" and " h s give birth to one another. Scene 2. 1 Thou art the cause. The Moor of Venice Act V. everything can be a "this". . m unknown . Shakespeare. you chaste stars!It is the cause. with no inkling of the immense variety and complexity of circumstances conditioning a phenomenon. Chuang Inner chapters (p. Scene 2. The Bible Matthew 7:20 The combination of phenomena is beyond the grasp of the human intellect.l. Tsu. Taylor. and says here is the cause. 29) I a not a heretic. 120 Looking for long-term causes of things is like ascribing motor accidents to the existence of the internal combustion engine. Leo War and Peace Book X I I .P. And the human intellect. I do believe in causality. my soulLet me not name it to you. . J.l. London Review Books 3(1) Wherefore by their fruits ye shall know them. One man cannot see things as another sees them . Tolstoy. and most accursed effect. But the impulse to seek cause is innate in the soul of man. Shakespeare.28 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING It is the cause.

48 Happy is he who has been able to learn the causes of things.CAUSE AND EFFECT 29 The cause is the same with a Barmter (a Barometer I suppose she meant. which has a great Effect on the Weather. Say rather the Weather has a great Effect on it. 489 . . if she meant anything). Virgil Quoted in James Lonsdale’s The Works o Virgil f The Georgics 11.. . Unknown Adventures o Sylvia Hughes f Written by herself. 1.

Butler. . at least one could get oneself taken seriously.it was a certainty.we’re not sure. . Bacon.CERTAINTY . there would be a solution. but the infinite probability of certainty is never reached. namely that we can have nothing certain. . 195) . but if he will be content to begin with doubts. 47) 30 . we can’t be sure. Francis The Advancement of Learning First Book (p. 41) Oh! let us never doubt What nobody is sure about! Belloc. 74) Sometimes the probability in favor of a generalization is enormous. Desderius and Luther (p. he shall end in certainties. if a man will begin with certainties he shall end in doubts. Camus. Samuel Samuel Butler’s Note-Books (p. William Science and the Human Mind Chapter X It was not a PERHAPS. Dampier-Whetham. Otherwise. Hilaire More Beasts for Worse Children The Microbe There is one thing certain. Albert The Fall (p. and therefore it is not certain that we can have nothing certain. Froude. James Anthony Short Studies on Great Subjects Times of Erasmus. .

Harvard Law Rm'ew Natural Law Volume 32.W.. Jr. and repose is not the destiny of man.W.W. The gravely and cautiously formed conclusion of the scientific investigator. 40) . do not differ from each other so far as they are acts of the mind. Holmes. Hoffer. and the determination of the school-girl that the weather is going to be fine. Froude. 79) Heads I win.. Holmes. 223) But certainty generally is illusion. Chapter XII. Eric The True Belimn Part 3. Holmes. James Anthony Short Studies on Great Subjects The Grammar of Assent (p." Father Newman insists. February 25.CERTAINTY 31 "Certainty. Number 7. O. Tails you lose. 466) Certitude is not the test of certainty. 278) Quoted by Plutarch Moralia Section 505D We can be absolutely certain only about things we do not understand. Number 1. Section 57 (p. November 1918 (p. 105) If one thing is more certain than another-which is extremely doubtfulGalsworthy. O. Jr. is the same in kind wherever and by whomsoever it is experienced. We have been cock-sure of many things that were not so. Harvard Law Rm'ew The Path of the Law Volume 10. Hesiod Fragments Frag 18 (p. O. John End of the Chapter Maid in Waiting Chapter 13 He is a fool who leaves certainties for uncertainties. The Professor at the Breayast Table (p. 1897 (p.

l. Mansfield. . without which there can be no true knowledge. George Bernard Back to Methuselah Act I In the Beginning Not a resemblance. Johnson. the highest probability amounts not to certainty. John A n Essay Concerning Human Understanding Book IV. . James Hopwood The New Background of Science (p.32 STATISTICALLY S P E A K " certain . Samuel The ldler Yet I shall not deny that the number of phenomena which are happily explained by a given hypothesis may be so great that it may be taken as morally certain. William The Complete Works o William Shakespeare f Measure for Measure Act IV. Give it to me. . . 58) When speculation has done its worst. reasoning and public utility require that judges and all mankind in forming their opinion of the truth of facts should be regulated by the superior number of probabilities on the one side or the other. . or I will kill you when next I catch you asleep. Jeans. Shaw. 203 . but a certainty. Leibniz.. Shakespeare. 168) f I must have certainty. Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz: Philosophical Papers and Letters Volume I On the Elements of Natural Science (p. two and two still make four. 1 1 14 1.for . Locke. .. As mathematical and absolute certainty is seldom to be attained in human affairs. 347) . Scene 2. Lord Quoted in Francis Wellman's The Art o Cross-Examination (p. we can know nothing .

O.CERTAINTY 33 All predictions are statistical. Walker.(See p.W. Holmes . Tails you lose. 31) . 70) Heads I win. Marshall The Nature of Scient@ Thought (p. but some predictions have such a high probability that one tends to regard them as certain.

Aquinas. Chapter V 34 . who should have known better. Aristotle The Physics Book 11. 1) In all such beings chance occurs. Thomas Summa Theologiae Part I Question 103. then. He emphasized that one in a million is a very remote risk. . Chapter V 1 I1 To begin with. Abelson. we note that some things follow upon others uniformly or generally.God’s Government taken as a Whole Article 5. Aristotle Metaphysics Book XI. once said that chance was a nickname for Providence. . Philip H. Eric A CofinfO~ Dimitrios (p. Science Editorial 4 February 1994 A Frenchman named Chamfort. Whether all things are subject to God’s government Clearly none of the traditional sciences concerns itself with the accidental. not in the sense that everything about them occurs by chance. Ambler. and it is evidently not such things that we attribute to chance or luck. but that in each of them there is room for chance and this very fact is a sign that they are subject to someone’s rule.CHANCE A substantial portion of the lecture was devoted to risks .

Blake. Borel. The Development of Mathematics (p. Bell. Fred The movie The Gay Divorcee Games of chance are probably as old as the human desire to get something for nothing. Aristotle O n the Heavens Book 11. rational action is merely a question of calculating the chances. should be negative. . she walks into mine! Bogart. phenomena whose causes are too complex to permit prediction. Humphrey The movie Casablanca Can there be laws of chance? The answer. and whatever applies everywhere and to all cases is not to be ascribed to chance. 1) . Every mom and every night Some are bom to sweet delight.CHANCE 35 . but their mathematical implications were appreciated only after Fermat and Pascal in 1654 reduced chance to law. 1. . since chance is in fact defined as the characteristic of the phenomena which follow no law. Eric T. chance is excluded from natural events. 165) Chance is the fool’s name for fate. Astaire. it would seem. William The Complete Writings of William Blake Poems from the Pickering Manuscript Auguries of Innocence. Raymond The Opium o the Intellectuals f Chapter VI The Illusion of Necessity (p.119-21 Of all the gin joints in all the towns in all the world. Emile Probabilities and Life Introduction ( p. . Chapter VI11 . Aron. . 154) Every night and every mom Some to misery are bom.

” Butler. I think chance is a more fundamental conception than causality. . or fortune . 62 ”Proof!” he cried. the intemal connection and the final causes of which we have as yet been unable to unravel. Buchner. M x Natural Philosophy of Cause and Chance (p. 47) What we still designate as chance. we deny that it is subject to any fixed laws at all. [Chance is a nickname of Providence. Samuel Erewhon Chapter XXIII Quoth She: ”I’ve heard old cunning Stagers Say. Samuel Erewhon Chapter XXII We see but a part. Fools for Arguments use wagers. of course. merely depends on a concatenation of circumstances.36 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING The conception of chance enters into the very first steps of scientific activity in virtue of the fact that no observation is absolutely correct. and ascribe much both of a man’s character and actions to chance. . or luck. 179) It must always be remembered that man’s body is what it is through having been molded into its present shape by the chances and changes of an immense time . . a Born. and being thus unable to generalize human conduct. the chances are twenty to one that it has nothing to do with .] Chamfort. verses 298-9 Quelqu’un disait que la providence strat le nom de bapthe du hasard . a cause-effect relationship holds or not can only be judged by applying the laws of chance to the observation. Ludwig Force and Matter The Fitness of Things in Nature (p. . for whether in a concrete case. Butler. except very roughly. Butler. . . Sebastien Roch Maximes et pensies Ib. ”Good God! the man is looking for proof! Why. Samuel Hudi bras The Second Part Canto I.

1. by chance. . . 96 Chance is the only source of true novelty. Comfort. when they do happen. Gilbert Keith The Father Brown Omnibus The Innocence of Father Brown The Blue Cross Surely nothing is so at variance with reason and stability as chance. Francis H r y Compton ar Life Itself (p. 1. De Divinatione De Divinatione XI. Colton. William Cowper: Poetical Works Conversation. he who loses remains sorrowful .. Dante The Divine Comedy o Dante Alighiere f Purgatory Canto 6. De Divinatione De Divinatione XI. . vii . Crick. to meet one nymphomaniac in a lifetime. ix As in the game of billiards. Cicero Cicero: De Senectute. Cowper. 87) A fool must now and then be right. . Charles Caleb Lacon: or many things in a fmwords (p. serve mainly to teach him how much he has still to learn . which the most skillful player could neither execute nor foresee. Alex Darwin and the Naked Lady: Discursive Essays on Biology and Art The Rape of Andromeda (p. in our society. but things that happen by chance cannot be certain..” Chesterson. 345) One has to be extraordinarily lucky. De Amicitia. De Amicitia. but which. 82) When the game of hazard is broken up.CHANCE 37 them. the balls are constantly producing effects from mere chance. But what else can we do? Don’t you see we must either follow one wild possibility or else go home to bed. Cicero Cicero: De Senectute. 1-2 .

de Moivre. Disney. Charles The Origin of Species Chapter 1 1 1 I am inclined to look at everything as resulting from designed laws. . ii) There are many People in the World who are prepossessed with an Opinion. Dorothy Crimson Fridny (p. that their Solution may be attained by the mere Strength of natural good Sense. But how false a view this is! Darwin. Abraham The Doctrine of Chances Dedication Nothing can come into being from that which is not. Abraham The Doctrine of Chances (p. . will be looked upon as a help to good reasoning. with the details. that it is rather a Guard against it. Darwin to Asa Gray May 22nd [1860](p. this Doctrine is so far from encouraging Play. 105) . 206) . Which generally providing otherwise and the Mistakes occasioned thereby being not unfrequent. by setting in a clear Light. but they soon will be undeceived . the Advantages and Disadvantages of those Games wherein Chance is concemed. . Charles The Life and Letters of Charles Darwin Volume I1 C. . the Mind is easily drawn into a belief. ’Tis presumed that a Book of this Kind. whether good or bad. Darwin. that the Doctrine of Chances has a Tendency to promote Play. Democritus in Diogenes Laterius’ Lives of Eminent Philosophers Chapter IX She hadn’t a Chinaman’s chance. de Moivre. we are tempted to attribute their proportional numbers and kinds to what we call chance. which teaches to distinguish Truth from what seems nearly to resemble it. or pass away into what is not. left to the working out of what we may call chance.38 STATlS TlCALLY SPEAKlNG When we look at the plants and bushes clothing an entangled bank. some of the Problems about Chance having a great appearance of Simplicity.

CHANCE Be juster. Eldridge. John The Poetical Works o D y d e n f All For Love Act V There was once a brainy baboon. 486 A general is a man who takes chances. For he said ”It appears That in billions of years I shall certainly hit on a tune. Einstein. Fermi. Albert Letter to Max Bom 7 November 1944 Value depends upon price and price upon chance and caprice. 39 Dryden. Heav’n: such virtue punish’d thus. though fortune governs all? Euripides The Plays o Euripides f Hecuba. the Lots Which Man is forc’d to draw. with a random hand. Sir Arthur Stanley New Pathways in Science Chapter 111. 62) In our scientific expectation we have grown antipodes. Will make us think that Chance rules all above. 147) f . which I try to grasp in a wildly speculative way. or have they rashly formed A vain opinion. Who always breathed down a bassoon. 1. if he happens to win three times in succession he is considered a great general. Mostly he takes a fifty-fifty chance. Paul Maxims for a Modern M a n 1855 Great Jove! What shall I say? that thou from Heaven look‘st down Upon mankind.” Eddington. And shuffles. You believe in God playing and I in perfect laws in the world of things existing as real objects. Section IV The End of the World (p. Enrico Quoted in Leo Szilard’s Leo Szilard: His Version o the Facts (p. deeming that the race Of gods exists.

not even membership in Onwentsa. not a house circumspectly clean. but we can’t stop now. and effectively plug it. Chapter 28 The whimsical effects of chance in producing stable results are common enough. Tangled strings variously twitched. or the Lake Forest Golf and Country Club. but several bits in their numerous chance encounters will at length so come into collision as to wedge themselves into a sort of arch across the tube. his evidence is accepted without difficulty. Froude. Galsworthy. no one bit may be so large as its bore. yet a person says that he saw me go that way and not another. Galton. Rubbish thrown down a sink is pretty sure in time to choke the pipe. The odds are forty-nine to one against my taking any particular way that can be mentioned. James Anthony Short Studies on Great Subjects The Grammar of Assent (p. John End o the Chapter f Maid in Waiting. when he discovered that not promptly kept appointments. Judith Ordinay People Chapter 11 The odds are still about five to one against hitting the right combination. 109) It’s all chance. or the Lawyer’s Club. that it is chance and not perfection that rules the world. Guest. and the fact is taken to be proved. but that is better than no odds at all. not power-not anything-leared you through the terrifying office of chance. Francis Natural lnheritance Organic Stability (p. Harrison. soon get themselves into tight knots.40 STATlSTlCALLY SPEAKlNG There are fifty ways which I may go after I leave my door. 21) He had left off being a perfectionist then. Harry Astounding The Mothballed Spaceship .

chance. it is not perhaps less real . Herodotus The History of Herodotus Volume 11. 221) . that is. . Chapter IV (p. Chapter I (p. with respect to which our ignorance will not permit us to perceive their causes. Harvey. it is well to bear in mind that chances rule men. Now.A. . .. and the chain that connects them together. Helvetius.. Homer The Iliad o Homer f Book XVII. then 9 times out of 10 it will. H u e .CHANCE 41 If there is a 50-50 chance that something can go wrong. 37) . Paul Paul Harvey News. our ignorance of the real cause of any event has the same influence on the understanding. Book VII. Heyward. C. this chance has a greater share in our education than is imagined. an infinite number of events. O n Mind Essay 111. and begets a like species of belief or opinion. Helvetius. C. .1979 . . in consequence of this. O n Mind Essay 111. occasions more happy ideas. . DuBose Carolina Chansons: Legends of the Low C o u n t y Gamesters All Then let a man now face the foe and perish or be saved: such is the intercourse of war. 196) If chance be generally acknowledged to be the author of most discoveries in almost all the arts. David An Enquiy Concerning Human Understanding Section VI (p. and not men chances. 49 Roll dem bones . . . and if in speculative sciences its power be less sensibly perceived. and sometimes leads us to the greatest discoveries .A. 226 Though there be no such thing as Chance in the world. It is this that places certain objects before us and.

that power which erring men call Chance. It fell to earth I know not where. John Poetical Works of John Milton Volume I1 Comus 1. . 587 . Longfellow. a trillion maybe. Dexter The Accident (p. Samuel The Yale Edition of the Works of Samuel Johnson The Idler and the Adventurer Idler No. . 16) But then I was reading in the paper just the other day about one of them saying there wasn’t more than one chance in God-knows-what. the sight Could not follow it in its flight. as well as valor must be content to share its honors with fortune. 382) . and therefore.42 STATlSTlCALLY SPEAKlNG Nothing was ever said with uncommon felicity. I said to myself. hey! how come any odds at all? Who’s running t i show anyway? I sort of get to hs wondering every once in a while whether anybody knows the middle and the end of what’s going on as well as the beginning. But then I said to myself. “that there is one chance in ten nothing will happen with the bomb. For so swift it flew. 58 Caput aut navia [Heads or Tails] Latin Expression I shot an arrow into the air. and one chance in a hundred that it will ignite the atmosphere. Henry Wadsworth The Poems of Longfellow The Arrow and the Song ”I should estimate. Johnson. this seems pretty safe odds. that these Bikini bombs could blow up the world. Dexter The Accident (p. Masters. wit. Milton.” this scientist was supposed to have said. but by the cooperation of chance.” Masters.

chance favors only the prepared mind. Nietzsche. Friedrich The Complete Works o Friedrich Nietzsche f The Joys of Wisdom. One man travelling to York. and heads or tails hs un will t r up. that the opinion of the many must be regarded. Goodness of the Deity (p. Goodness of the Deity (p. life is 9 to 5 against. Socrates. by which we mean. necessarily arise from the pursuit of events which are designed. for what is now happening shows that they can do the greatest evil to any one who has lost their good opinion. 186) Cleopatra’s nose-had have been changed. But you see. Number 258 There must be chance in the midst of design. . Blaise Pascal’s Penskes Section I. 910 No conqueror believes in chance. 186) The appearance of chance will always bear a proportion to the ignorance of the observer.CHANCE 43 . All things considered. William Natural Theology Volume 11. Louis in Rent2 Dubos’ Louis Pasteur: Free Lance o Science (p. Paley. 101) f Nick the Greek’s Law of Life. . that events which are not designed. 223 In the field of experimentation. Peers. John Paradise Lost Book 11. C h n c e govems all. Pasteur. Paley. 1. . the whole face of the earth would Pascal. it been shorter. at the other end of ti infinite distance. 50) Crito. Blaise Pascal’s Penskes Section I. Milton. 111. meets another man travelling to London. John ZOO1 Logical Laws (p. William Natural Theology Volume 11. What will you wager? Pascal. 93 A game is on.

of those things which. From outside. And this is what we too must do. for then they would be able to do the greatest good-and what a fine thing this would be! But in reality they can do neither. for they cannot make a man either wise or foolish. molds and fashions all those lesser works which are generally termed artificial. Frederik The Coming of the Quantum Cuts 22 August 1983 4:20 A.M. and whatever they do is the result of chance. I only wish it were so. and that the many could do the greatest evil. 709 Athenian Stranger. being moved by others. secondly. Plato Crito 44 . in human affairs chance is almost everything. the lesser of art. . 889 The lover of intellect and knowledge ought to explore causes of intelligent nature first of all. which. but a distinction should be made between those which are endowed with mind and are the workers of things fair and good. But a cat can’t be five-tenths alive.44 STATISTICALLY SPEAKlNG Socrates. and those which are deprived of intelligence and always produce chance effects without order or design. established one and for all. are compelled to move others. Crito. and. . Pohl. Plato Timaeus 46 But from outside there is no knowing which is true. and those which they attributed to chance. Plato Laws Book IV. there is a five-tenths chance that the cat’s alive. 57) And first. these were the ones . receiving from nature the greater and primeval creations. what is chance? The ancients distinguished between phenomena seemingly obeying harmonious laws. Plato Laws Book X. Both kinds of causes should be acknowledged by us. Senator Dominic DeSota (p. They say that the greatest and fairest things are the work of nature and of chance.

395) Chance is only the measure of our ignorance. 289 . harmony. One truth is clear. 41C-1) All chance. we should always lose. Henri The Foundations of Science Science and Method (p. All partial evil. Henri The Foundations of Science Science and Method (p. It would have suffered to deflect it a tenth of a millimeter and Napoleon would not have been bom and the destinies of a continent would have been changed. containing precisely. however minute. In this conception the word chance had a precise and objective meaning: what was chance for one was also chance for another and even for the gods. direction. In each domain the precise laws did not decide everything. could have foreseen it from the beginning of the centuries. we could not play with it at any game of chance. ”Whatever is. the mysterious elements whose mutual reaction must produce the genius. has a cause. How slight a thing it would have required to deflect from its route the carrying spermatozoon. spite of Pride. If such a mind existed.CHANCE 45 unpredictable because rebellious to all law. in erring Reason’s spite. and a mind infinitely powerful. 395) Every phenomenon. Poincark. universal good: And.” Pope. not understood. which thou canst not see. Poincar6. of different sex. No example can better make us understand the veritable characteristics of chance. each on its side. they only drew limits between which chance might act. infinitely well-informed about the laws of nature. is Right. 395) The greatest bit of chance is the birth of a great man. All discord. One will agree that these elements must be rare and that their meeting is still more rare. It is only by chance that the meeting of two germinal cells. Alexander The Complete Poetical Works o POPE f An Essay on Man Epistle I. Henri The Foundations of Science Science and Method (p. Poincare. Poincark. Henri The Foundations of Science Science and Method (pp.

Blow it or rough or smooth. to find out how Things may be. [We must for the most part be content with probability. 8) There’s no such thing as chance. and folly. And what to us seems merest accident Springs from the deepest source of destiny. Arthur Parerga and Paralipomena: Short Philosophical Essays Wisdom of Life: Aphorisms Chance will not do the work-Chance sends the breeze. which. Scene I11 Consider that chance. and yours too. Scott. Jacques Rohault‘s System of Natural Philosophy Volume I. Schiller. Damon Collier’s A Nice Place 8 September 1934 (p. Friedrich Early Dramas The Death of Wallenstein Act 11. rules in this world.] Rohault. Schopenhauer. which every year and every day. its grandmother. by blows great and small. The very wind that wafts us toward the port May dash us on the Shelves-The steersman’s part is viglance. 3 I long ago came to the conclusion that all life is 6 to 5 against. Proverb. English Thus we must content our selves for the most part. Runyon. and malice. with error. But if the pilot slumbers at the helm. its aunt. Chapter 3. embitters the life of every son of earth. Part I.46 STATISTICALLY SPEAKlNG Wisdom liketh not chance. Sir Walter Fortunes o Nigel f Chapter XXII . without pretending to come to a certain knowledge and determination of what they really are. its brother.

William The Complete Works o William Shakespeare f Othello. 13 Portia. . Shakespeare. 1. 120 Wherein I spake of most disastrous chances . Scene 2. Shakespeare. The Moor of Venice Act I. 1. the lottery of my destiny Bars me the right of voluntary choosing. 48 As things but done by chance. William The Complete Works of William Shakespeare Anthony and Cleopatra Act V. . And either not attempt to choose at all Or swear before you choose. Scene 1. if you choose wrong . In terms of choice I am not solely led By nice direction of a maiden’s eyes. 134 Portia.. bring me unto my chance. im From fr security. why. William The Complete Works o William Shakespeare f The Merchant of Venice Act 11.l. 43 1 If chance will have me King. 1. 38 Come. Shakespeare. Besides..l. 1. Scene 3. Shakespeare. Scene 1. Shakespeare. William The Complete Works o William Shakespeare f The Merchant of Venice Act 11.CHANCE 47 Give up yourself merely to chance and hazard. . Scene 7. 1. Shakespeare. William The Complete Works o William Shakespeare f The Merchant of Venice Act 1 . You must take your chance. Scene 1. William The Complete Works o William Shakespeare f Anthony and Cleopatra Act 111. William The Complete Works of William Shakespeare Macbeth Act I. . Shakespeare. 143 . chance may crown me . Scene 3.

and the lot fell upon Jonah. But as the unthought-on accident is guilty To what we wildly do. and God. . and Chance. Occasion.H. . Fate. Shakespeare.. William The Complete Works of William Shakespeare The Winter's Tale Act IV. Scene 4. Percy Bysshe The Poems of Percy Bysshe Shelley Prometheus Unbound Act 11. nor the battle to the strong .l. The Bible Proverbs 16:33 . Shelley. Part 1. 92 1. 1. and Chaos old . 757 Quoted in George E.l. Scene IV. Tennyson. .48 STATISTICALLY SPEAHNG Florizel . xiv Blessed be the gods. . Scene 4. . The Bible Jonah 1:7 . T i e .H. Alfred Lord The Poems and Plays of Tmnyson In Memoriam A. Shelley. 548 Of Fate. Chance and Change-to these all things are subject. . Percy Bysshe The Poems of Percy Bysshe Shelley Prometheus Unbound Act 11. by whose aid things happen that we wouldn't even dare hope for! Terence Phormio Act V. Scene 11 1. . Duckworth's The Complete Roman Drama So they cast lots. . 119 And grasps the skirt of happy chance. . the race is not to the swift. so we profess Ourselves to be the slaves of chance and flies Of every wind that blows.

[Age at death is a chance variable.5 . But what is chance? What is genius? The words chance and genius do not denote any really existing thing and therefore cannot be defined. Thucydides The H s o y of the Peloponnesian War itr I. Virgil Quoted i James Lonsdale's n The Works of Virgil The Eclogues Ix. without attaching any determinate. Paul Henri.] Unknown Since Fortune sways to the world [Chance sways all. 71) For sometimes the course of things is as arbitrary as the plans of man. but which is always opposed to that of intelligence. 140 Why did it happen in this and not in some other way? Because it happened so! "Chance created the situation.] .1." says history. indeed this is why we usually blame chance for whatever does not happen as we expected. genius utilized it. Thiery. Unknown Omnium versatur uma serius ocius sors exitura. or any certain idea. Chapter I1 No more chance than a snowball in Hell. Leo War and Peace First Epilogue. chance is an empty word without sense. .. Baron d'Holbach The System of Nature Volume I Chapter 5 (p. Tolstoy..CHANCE 49 . .

He glanced furtively at the crowd to see whether anyone was observing him. and. Well. He said to himself. Amauld. Hilaire The Silence o the Sea f On Statistics (p. or fifty times.”) Bennett. it having been decided to bet. until at last a sufficiency of statistics comes very near to common sense. being of a mathematical turn. and the treble kills the double. 9) The double analysis kills the single analysis. Henry had read a magazine article concerning the tables at Monte Carlo. the next question was.” remarked the logical superior person in him. 245-6) 50 . Arnold A Great Man Chapter XXV (pp. ”I know all about that. with his characteristic caution: “I’ll wait till red wins four times running. and then I’ll stake on the black.” (”But surely. Antoine The Art of Thinking: Port-Royal Logic First Discourse ( p . ”You don’t mean to argue that a spin of the ball is affected by the spins that have proceeded it? You don’t mean to argue that because red wins four times. Belloc. how to bet? Now. 173) And then he knew that something within him more powerful than his common-sense would force him to stake that five-franc piece. running. No. had clearly grasped the principles of the game.COMMON SENSE Common sense is not really so common. black is any the more likely to win at the next spin?” “You shut up!” retorted the human side of him crossly.

Bell's Mathematics: Queen and Servant of Science (p. not by reasoning. . John Maynard A Treatise on Probability Chapter XXI (p. but by instinct and experience. 259) One sees in t i essay that the theory of probabilities is basically only hs common sense reduced to a calculus. Albert Quoted in Eric T. Keynes. both of the individual and of the race. E. but. we cannot. 124) . and justify.COMMON S E N S E Statistics are no substitute for common sense. Pierre-Simon A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities (p. 42) What is common sense? That which attracts the least opposition: that which brings most agreeable and worthy results. Encyclopaedia Britannica 9th Edition Probability . B14) There is no more remarkable feature in the mathematical theory of probability than the manner in which it has been found to harmonize with. though sound. and invested them with a definiteness and precision of which these crude. common sense is nothing more than a deposit of prejudices laid down in the mind before you reach eighteen. Quoted in Paul Dickson's The OfFcial Explanations (p.W. Laplace. Howe. appreciations of common sense were till then devoid. But how much stronger or how strong we cannot express. 51 Bialac. extended. Crofton. Einstein. M. Sinner Sermons (p. 7) We know that the probability of a well-established induction is great.W. the conclusions to which mankind have been led. At the same time it has corrected. when we are asked to name its degree. . Common sense tells us that some inductive arguments are stronger than others. Richard N. and that some are very strong.

And the moral of that is ’Birds of a feather flock together. Nigel The Small Buck Room (p. smoked heavily.CORRELATION There is no correlation between the cause and the effect. used drugs. ”The taller the man. Lewis The Complete Works of Lewis Carroll The Mock Turtle’s Story Reading the twenty-sixth chart. the more rarefied the atmosphere and the less the air resistance. and failed to exercise.” I said. connected not so much with the imperfection of our knowledge as with the structure of the human world. “Right as usual.” said the Duchess: ”what a clear way you have of putting things!‘. there’s a positive correlation between penetration and the height of the man firing. they 52 .” “Easy.’’ Alice remarked. their charts showed a predominance of high-risk social habits.” “Well.” Balchin. Aron. Although the patients did not share physical symptoms. The events reveal only an aleatory determination. 8 ) ”Very true. drank too much. Carroll. 163) ”You know those penetration figures?” “Mm. Raymond The Opium of the lntellectuuls Chapter VI (p. or combined any and all of these unhealthy practices.”’ ’’Only mustard isn’t a bird.” said the Duchess: “flamingos and mustard both bite. They were overweight. one correlation suddenly occurred to Jason.

Cronbach. The shaking fact was that they deteriorated so quickly. Maybe it was a kind of statistical equalizing. Statistical Methods for Research Workers (p. Dickson. with a boldness and complexity far beyond the resources of science. Robin Mortal Fear Chapter 11 (p. Fisher. It thus permits rigorous tests of hypotheses and confidential statements about causation. Cook. not sufficiently accurate. The correlator’s mission is to observe and organize the data of nature’s experiments. and the evasion of the real difficulties of sampling problems under cover of a contempt for small samples. And why the sudden upswing in deaths.6). These procedures were not only ill-aimed. Nature has been experimenting since the beginning of time. L. while members of the lower class average 2. were obviously beginning to make its pretensions ridiculous. The American Psychologist The Two Disciplines of Scientific Psychology Volume 12. The correlational method. 220) The well-known virtue of the experimental method is that it brings situational variables under tight control. Paul The OfFciaZ Rules (p. but for all their elaboration. for its part. v) . Sir Ronald A. 672) Hall’s Law: There is a statistical correlation between the number of initials in an Englishman’s name and his social class (the upper class having sigruficantly more than three names.CORRELATION 53 were men and women who were eventually destined to have severe medical problems.J. They’d been lucky and now the numbers were catching up to them. can study what man has not learned to control. November 1957 (p. People weren’t indulging in vices more than they were a year ago. H-80) The futile elaboration of innumerable measures of correlation.

. with the average of all the associated deviations of the Relative . were seen to be only differentiated from the physical by the intensity of their correlations. Chapter XIV (p. that there is truth in the theory that all variability is much the same kind. Part 11. Galton. The idea Galton placed before himself was to represent by a single quantity the degree of relationships. and it was fully confirmed by this theory. and Labours of Francis Galton Volume IIIA. and the idea is even more frequently present than the phrase but I am not aware of any previous attempt to define it clearly. that connects with close approximation every value of the deviation on the part of the subject. or to show how it measures its degree. which lies quite open to the research of any competent person who cares to investigate it. a fraction.1888 It had appeared from observation. Part 11. now commonly written T. Karl The Life. Galton.STATISTICALLY SPEAKlNG ”Co-relation or correlation of structure’’ is a phrase much used in biology. April 1890 (pp. Chiefly for Anthropometric Data Volume 45. and not least in that branch of it which refers to heredity. April 1890 (p. 2) The quantity of the correlation is inversely proportional to the density of the control (the fewer the facts. 427-8) I can only say that there is a vast field of topics that fall under the laws of correlation. that is to say. to trace its mode of action in detail. Letters. Francis Memories of My Life Chapter XX It is now beginning to be generally understood. even by merely practical statisticians. the smoother the curves). Galton. 431) Biological phenomena in their numerous phases. economic and social. Galton. Francis North American Review Kinship and Correlation Volume 150. that such a thing existed as an ”Index of Correlation”. Francis Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Co-relations and Their Measurements. . or of partial causality between the different variables of our everchanging universe. unknown . Francis North American Review Kinship and Correlation Volume 150. Pearson.

Computers and Automation Right Answers-A Short Guide for Obtaining Them Volume 18. Berkeley. 20) Lots of people bring you false information. thorough. Good data and poor reasoning give poor results. April 1948 (p. 16) 55 . good and bad. Number 2. William Edwards Some Theory o Sampling (p. Number 10. Number 10. Edmund C. Deming. 20) Anyone can easily misuse good data. Deming. Computers and Automation Right Answers-A Short Guide for Obtaining Them Volume 18. September 1969 (p. 18) f There is only one kind of whiskey. Edmund C. September 1969 (p.DATA There is no substitute for honest. Poor data and good reasoning give poor results. There is no substitute for actually reaching a correct claim of reasoning. William Edwards The American Statistician On the Classification of Statistics Volume 2. Poor data and poor reasoning give rotten results. scientific effort to get correct data (no matter how much of it clashes with preconceived ideas). but two broad classes of data. Berkeley.

Number 218. A.56 S TATIS TlCAL LY SPEAKZNG Scientific data are not taken for museum purposes. 173) Data are often presented in a form that is not immediately clear. Holmes. we should endeavor to obtain some. Austin A Certain Dr. Harold L. it is an error to argue in front of your data. Sherlock in Arthur Conan Doyle’s The Complete Sherlock Holmes The Adventure of Wisteria Lodge . Deming. June 1942 (p. or retum them to the author for him to analyze.C. 48) Still. as we are practically without data. Enarson. Francis Natural Inheritance Schemes of Distribution and of Frequency (p. they are taken as a basis for doing something. The ultimate purpose of taking data is to provide a basis for action or a recommendation for action. If nothing is to be done with the data.human mind is capable of grasping in its entirety the meaning of any considerable quantity of numerical data. The step intermediate between the collection of data and the action is prediction. Statistical Methods for Research Workers (p. 6 ) I can only suggest that. Ehrenberg. William Edwards Journal of the American Statistical Association On a Classification of the Problems of Statistical Inference Volume 37. The reader can then either ignore the data. Thorndyke Thomdyke Takes up the Inquiry My data were very lax but this method of treatment got all the good out of them that they possessed. analyze them himself. Data Reduction (p. Fisher. 1) It does not follow that because something can be counted it therefore should be counted. September 1975 No.S. Freeman. Speech to Society for College and University Planning. then there is no use in collecting any. Sir Ronald A. R. Galton. You find yourself insensibly twisting them around to fit your theories.

Hoyle. Sherlock in Arthur Conan Doyle’s The Complete Sherlock Holmes Scandal in Bohemia ”No data yet. 4) . radio data serves like a good dog on a hunt. 43) By no process of sound reasoning can a conclusion drawn from limited data have more than a limited application. Sherlock in Arthur Conan Doyle’s The Complete Sherlock Holmes A Study in Scarlet If you can’t have an experiment. Mellor. do the best you can with whatever data you can gather. Robert Quoted in J. Nuclei and Quasars (p. Higher Mathematics for Students of Chemistry and Physics (p. It biases the judgment. ”It is a capital mistake to theorize before you have all of the evidence. Tanur‘s Statistics: A Guide to the Unknown Statistics. hn Hooke.” he answered.M.” Holmes.W. Holmes. Sherlock in Arthur Conan Doyle’s The Complete Sherlock Holmes The Adventure of the Copper Beeches It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has the data. but do be very skeptical of historical data and subject them to all the logical tests you can t i k of. and Some Other Things To the optical astronomer.” Holmes. Sports.DATA 57 “Data! Data! Data!’’ he cried impatiently. J . Fred Galaxies. ”I can’t make bricks without clay.

His friend said. The Analysis of Matter Chapter X I X (p. L. and yet it would seem improper to call something a "datum" if it involved inferences as well as observation. . and have yielded certain observed results.C. This constitutes a problem Russell. "Cox. The World of Mathematics Sampling and the Standard Error Volume 3 (p. But what you must never forget is that every one of those figures comes in the first instance from the chowty dur (village watchman). the task is not altogether easy. A datum.] Unknown If at first you don't succeed. [Accept them as they are or deny their existence. Josiah Some Economic Factors in Modern Life Chapter VI1 (p. Harold Cox tells a story of his life as a young man in India. an Englishman. 1486) Sint ut sunt aut non sint. when you are a bit older. . he knows very well in practice what he means. Thurber. James Lanterns and Lances The Last Clock In general. who just puts down what he damn pleases. and they raise them to the nth power. they merely calculate them." Stamp. which have been recorded. unknown . obviously. But it is very difficult to arrive at a fact in which there is no element of inference. He quoted some statistics to a Judge. 187) The individual source of the statistics may easily be the weakest link. must be a fact known by perception. you will not quote Indian statistics with that assurance. But when we try to define a "datum" theoretically. take the cube root and prepare wonderful diagrams. 258) We have no scientific data whatever on clock-eating and hence no controlled observation. transform your data set. Statisticians do not evolve probabilities out of their inner consciousness.58 STATISTZCAL LY S P E A K " When a man of science speaks of his "data". Bertrand A. Tippett. The Government are very keen on amassing statistics-they collect them. it is necessary to have some data on which to calculate probabilities . and a very good fellow. Certain experiments have been conducted.

The word is found in an immortal couplet by that eminent poet and domestic economist. 20) f Die. n. Anscombe. some one says: "The die is cast". Belief without evidence in what is told by one who speaks without knowledge. Bierce.J. refined and chemically transmuted. "Never say die". which is not true. Senator Depew: A cube of cheese no larger than a die May bait the trap to catch a nibbling mie. Ambrose The Devil's Dictionary Faith. At long intervals. Ambrose The Dezd's Dictionary 59 . Technometn'cs Rejection of Outliers Volume 2.1960 Common knowledge is. in fact. n. assorted. nothing else than the raw material which. Barry. one may also speak of a "discordant". F. of things without parallel. however. Other terms in English are "wild. "sport" and "maverick. The singular of "dice". Frederick The Scientific Habit o Thought (p. We seldom hear the word. has served as the basic substance of its vastly elaborated synthesis. "straggler". Bierce. "anomalous" or "aberrant" observation. for it is cut. because there is a prohibitory proverb.An observation with an abnormally large residual will be referred to as an outlier.

data: 1. 2. expected value: One that the sample average will almost never equal. To weigh probabilities in the scales of desire. Bierce. it is best used with a dimensional measure. probability: An erudite measure of ignorance. Ambrose The Datil’s Dictionary Indecision. an estimate having optimum qualities under conditions almost never met in practice. Being dimensionless. When there are more than one. Deified numbers. ”was admirable. n. ”Your prompt decision to attack. vi. posterior probability: A result arrived at by the application of an elegant mathematical formula to nothing more than seat-of-the-pants reasoning. assignable cause: The cause that takes the rap when the process runs amok. The chief element of success. Deming. ”there is but one way to do nothing and diverse ways to do something. commode: Term applied to each mode of a bimodal distribution. 14) assessed probability: One manipulated by the Intemal Revenue Service. 3. especially a grain of salt.60 S TATlS TZCAL LY SPEAKING Reason. ”for whereas”. General.Brandname for the products from down here. Ambrose The Devil’s Dictionary A chunk is a convenient slice of a population.” “Yes. to a surety. When in doubt whether to attack or retreat I never hesitate a moment-I toss up a copper.” Bierce. you had but five minutes to make up your mind in. meaning reference point.” ”Do you mean to say that’s what you did this time?” “Yes. . “it is a great thing to know exactly what to do in an emergency. Sir. said General Grant on a certain occasion to General Gordon Granger. only one is the right way. Plural of datum. William Edwards Some Theory of Sampling (p. said Sir Thomas Brewbold.” answered the victorious subordinate. they almost always conflict. it followeth that he who from indecision standeth still hath not so many chances of going astray as he who pusheth forwards”-a most clear and satisfactory exposition of the matter. best estimate: In the theory of estimation. whereof. but for Heaven’s sake don’t reprimand me: I disobeyed the coin.

Green. 4) Thinking in words.21) When there is no explanation. A form of lying that is neither black. sequential analysis: A systematic procedure for generating second guesses. since deviates are abnormal. scatterbrain: 1. H u f f . Darrell How to Lie with Statistics ( p . Kelly-Bootle. Those who entertain it are known as regressions. 2. 172) Misinforming people by use of statistical material might be called statistical manipulation. Harold Mar. 100) summation convention n. A disorderly. A mathematicians’ shindig held each year in the Kronecker Delta. 2. A sexual activity formerly considered perverted but now universally practiced and accepted. hoping that one will prove sigruficant. An attempt to analyze data-rare and archaic. . They regress first and think afterward. June 1970 (. Fabing. but not quite random. which immediately explains everything. Ray Fischerisms (p.p. statistics: 1. consciousness is behavior. A Classicist who scatters test levels to the wind. Stan The Devil’s DP Dictionary standard deviation n. white.DEFlNITlONS 61 random normal deviate: A contradiction in terms. Durand. statisticulation. regression fallacy: The naive belief that regression analysis is a cure-all. they give it a name. and their way is hard.A Bayesian whose beliefs have been randomized in order to facilitate deriving personal probabilities without systematic bias. in a word (though not a very good one). experiment is measurement. Number 3. progress from datum to datum. 3. Celia The Decline and Fall of Science Aphorisms (p. nor color. David The American Statistician A Dictionary for Statismagicians Volume 24.

3) Inference. John Allen lnnumeracy (p.” On his seventieth birthday he wrote: “Awoke this morning with a fine erection. plagues far too many otherwise knowledgeable citizens. and into my accounts payable . Stan The Devil‘s DP Dictionary map n. Stan The Devil’s DP Dictionary The words figure and fictitious both derive from the same Latin root. I tell them all. while the other (the range) is unknowable. . Volkart‘s The Angel’s Dictionary A posit is a statement which we treat as true although we do not know whether it is so. Paulos. Hans The Rise of Scient@ Philosophy (p. One person’s meat is another person’s Poisson. Kelly-Bootle. An old sea captain kept a personal diary. Reichenbach. That soon gets the idiots off my couch.62 STATlSTlCALLY SPEAKING A DP Freudian writes: ”I divide my patients into two broad categories: those who are tumed on by normally distributed curves and those who are not. Beware! Moroney.’’ On his seventy- fifth birthday he wrote: “Awoke this morning with a fine erection. could barely bend it with both hands. Phineas Quoted in Edmund H.” Kelly-Bootle. Do not fret. n. The imponderable correspondence between two sets. out of my sample. A mysterious process allowing us to reach a conclusion that is desired. 56) Innumerancy.J.” Plonk. couldn’t bend it with both hands. couldn’t bend it with both hands. an inability to deal comfortably with the fundamental notions of numbers and chance. one of which is unknown (called the domain). . On his sixty-fifth birthday he wrote: ”Awoke this moming with a fine erection. Facts from Figures Scatter ( p . M. Must be getting stronger. fingere. 240) .

you will permit me again to say. 36) - . The Angel’s Dictionary Define your terms. Volkhart. 2) It must always be remembered that man’s body is what it is through having been molded into its present shape by the chances and changes of a immense time. . Edmund H. n. . Voltaire The Portable Voltaire Philosophical Dictionary Miscellany (p. pl. Handbook o Nonparametric Statistics f Volume 1. 225) A precise and universally acceptable definition of the term ’nonpararnetric’ is not presently available. Chapter 1 (p. John E. or we shall never understand one another.DEFINlTlONS 63 Statistics. Walsh. n Samuel Butler (See p. analysis. The collection. and interpretation of numerical data in such a way as to be understood by computers and misunderstood by everyone else.

June 1970 (p. 21) The conception of degrees of freedom is not altogether easy to attain. Number 3. L C . n Durand. is usually considered self-evident-xcept for the analysis of data that have not appeared i a textbook. David The American Statistician A Dictionary for Statismagicians Volume 24. Tippett. The number of fetters on the statistician. ..DEGREES OF FREEDOM Degrees of freedom. The number of d. .f. The Method of Statistics (p. 64) 64 .

. . a young student at the back of the room timidly asked. Hooke. Fisher. Robert Quoted in J. Tanur‘s Statistics: A Guide to the Unknown Statistics. and the second thing is to hn find my way into that lovely garden. Sports. 13) If you’re trying to establish cause-and-effect relationships. no doubt. The voice at the back of the room very hesitantly replied. ”DO you have any controls?” Well. Carroll. do try to do so with a properly designed experiment. hit the desk. I t i k that will be the best plan. “Yes.” Then the visitor’s fist really 65 . and Some Other Things One day when I was a junior medical student. At the end of the lecture. and said. Sir Ronald A.DESIGN OF EXPERIMENTS ”The first thing I’ve got to do” said Alice to herself as she wandered in the woods. . The Design of Experiments (p. Lewis The Complete Works of Lewis Carroll The Rabbit Sends in a Little Bill A lady declares that by tasting a cup of tea made with milk she can discriminate whether the milk or the tea infusion was first added to the cup.” It sounded an excellent plan. We will consider the problem of designating an experiment by means of which this assertion can be tested. the great surgeon drew himself up to his full height. the only difficulty was that she had not the smallest idea how to set about it. ”is to grow to my right size again.M. a very important Boston surgeon visited the school and delivered a great treatise on a large number of patients who had undergone successful operations for vascular reconstructions. that’s what I had in mind. ”Do you mean did I not operate on half the patients?” The hall grew very quiet then.

"Which half?" Peacock. sitteth not down first. 1926 (p. E. Pope.66 STATISTICALLY SPEAKlNG came down as he thundered. whether he have sufficient to finish it? The Bible Luke 14:28 .1972 (p. Journal of the Minist y of Agriculture of Great Britain Field Experiments: How They are Made and What They Are Volume 32. only one question should be asked at a time. . The chief requirement is simplicity. Russell. 989) For which of you intending to build a tower. Alexander The Complete Poetical Works of POPE An Essay on Man. Medical World News September 1. and counteth the cost.. "Of course not.E. 1. ask whether each experiment or question is framed in such a way that a definite answer can be given. .J. That would have doomed half of them to their death. ." It was absolutely silent then. 6 A committee or an investigator considering a scheme of experiments should first . 45) A mighty maze! but not without a plan . Epistle I. and one could scarcely hear the small voice ask. E.

if in one hundred casts you made hn one hundred Venus throws? It is possible for paints flung at random on a canvas to form the outline of a face. Bierce. . De Amicitia.DICE . John Works Volume XV. 1821 Edition (p. Aristotle On the Heavens Book 1 . too. is that a reason for believing that it could write out Ennius's poem The Andromche? Cicero Cicero: De Senectute. whereas to make it once or twice is comparatively easy. De Divinatione De Divinatione I. to put the dice into the box for another throw. In law. and as she flings of Kings makes peasants.t. . to repeat the same throw ten thousand times with the dice would be impossible. xiii 'lis fate that flings the dice. but do you t i k it would be chance. but do you imagine that an accidental scattering of pigments could produce the beautiful portrait of Venus of Cos? Suppose that a hog should form a letter 'A' on the ground with its snout. Chapter XI1 1 Appeal: v. Dryden. and of peasants Kings. 103) 67 . Ambrose The Dm'l's Dictionary Four dice are cast and a Venus throw results-that is chance.

Consideration of particle emission from black holes suggests that God not only plays with dice but that he sometimes throws them where they cannot be seen. still realize that God may have created a world in which there are no natural laws. But that there should be statistical laws with definite solutions. Nature The Breakdown of Physics Volume 257.. Zoology (those first steps which the farmer. Ralph Waldo Nature Discipline ( p . as the dice of chance decree. and the sailor take). Hawking. the hunter. a chaos. S. Clark’s Einstein: The Life and Times (p. Einstein. 340) I can. Einstein. Albert Quoted in Ronald W. Clark‘s Einstein: The Life and Times (p. i. am convinced that He does not throw dice. Emerson. that in her heaps of rubbish are concealed sure and useful results. Emerson.68 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING Quantum mechanics is certainly imposing. if the worst comes to worst. Eldridge. I. 38) The dice of God are always loaded. The theory says a lot but does not bring us any closer to the secret of the Old One. Paul Maxims for a Modern Man 1849 The first steps in Agriculture. I find highly disagreeable. teach that Nature’s dice are always loaded. Albert Quoted in Ronald W. 1975 (p. Astronomy. In short. 362) . at any rate.e. Ralph Waldo Essays First Series Compensation It therefore seems that Einstein was doubly wrong when he said that God does not play dice. 340) Acorns may be food for hogs or rise into magruficent oaks. laws which compel God to throw the dice in each individual case. But an inner voice tells me that it is not yet the real thing.

Hood. four. [ A throw of the dice will never abolish chance. you say. Polya. in fact. he got three sixes right away. Stephane Title of poem in Poems (p. Andrew Lost Leaders Winter Sports U n Coup de dis jamis n’abolira le hasard. G.DICE For dice will run the contrary way As well is known to all who play. 69 . Men permitted themselves to eat only every second day. and each time he produced three sixes. 2150 They need only adapt to the circumstances that old Lydian tradition which says that games of chance were invented during great famine.. and the bet was repeated. ‘Sangue di Bacco. Such luck is possible. ’the dice are loaded!’ And they were.] Mallarmt5. [The die is cast.’ exclaimed the reverend. Yet the man succeeded a second time. Thomas Miss Kilmansegg and Her Previous Leg Her Misery 1. shaking three dice in a cup. He put back the dice in the cup. three. and. Patterns o Plausible Inference (p. 159) Jacta alea est. wagered to throw three sixes. Yannis Erotica Small Suite in Red Major . Lang. five times.] Plutarch Plutarch‘s Lives Caesar One day in Naples the reverend Galiana saw a man from the Basilicata who. and tried to forget their hunger by playing at draughts and dice. 74) f I hear the clackwho cast the dice on the bathroom tiles? Ritsos.

l. Scene 4. like dice from a box. Withdraw. Scene 4.70 STATlSTlCALLY SPEAKING And by the hazard of the spotted die Let die the spotted. Williams. Five have I slain to-day instead of him.l. I have set my life upon a cast And I will stand the hazard of the die: I think there be six Richmonds in the field. Wilder. my lord. Illinois t Chile (p. William The Complete Works of William Shakespeare Timon of Athens Act V. I help you to a horse. A horse! a horse! my kingdom for a horse! Catesby. 107) o I of dice possess the science. Slave. [Midas on the dice gives the best advice.] Suidas Collected Works o Erasmus f Adages I1 vii 1 to I11 iii 100 (p. Thomton The Eighth Day 11. William The Complete Works of William Shakespeare The Tragedy of King Richard the Third Act V. Shakespeare. And in numbers thus am skilled. Monier The Story of Nala Book XX (p. 7 Midas in tesseris consultor optimus. ' l King Richard. 124) We were shaken into existence. A horse! a horse! my kingdom for a horse! Shakespeare. 133) . 34 King Richard.

Francis Memories o M y Life f Chapter XX It has been objected . yet it is necessary that it either should or should not take place to-morrow.DISTRIBUTIONS A sea-fight must either take place to-morrow or not. that I pushed the application of the Law of m Frequency of Error somewhat too far. Abraham The Doctrine o Chances (p. Let the Reader chuse. . the applicability of that law is more than justified within . with the evidence before me. reasonable limits. 44) 71 . They were to get rid of.but I a sure that. neither is it necessary that it should not take place. Galton. of a Class indeed very different from that of James Bernoulli. rather disqualify a man for reasoning on every other subject. who insinuate as if the Doctrine of Probabilities could have no place in any serious Enquiry. . But these errors or deviations were the very thing I wanted to preserve and to know about. Francis Natural Inheritance Schemes of Distribution and of Frequency (p. and that Studies of this kind. Aristotle On Interpretation Chapter IX Yet there are Writers. . de Moivre. I may have done so . but it is not necessary that it should take place to-morrow. . . Galton. 254) f The primary objects of the Gaussian Law of Error were exactly opposed. to those to which I applied them. . or to provide a just allowance for errors. in one sense. trivial and easy as they be. .

Stan T e Devil’s DP Dictiona y h A misunderstanding of Bernoulli’s theorem is responsible for one of the commonest fallacies in the estimation of probabilities. R. Became quite unroulli Expounding Bemoulli. who said (partly in jest no doubt) that there must be something mysterious about the normal law since mathematicians think it is a law of nature whereas physicists are convinced that it is a mathematical theorem.72 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING Normality is a myth. ‘Large Numbers’ Bemoulli or ‘Probability’ Bemoulli? Harris. Kac. Kneale. Sidney What‘s So Funny about Science Caption to Cartoon . 298) Which Bemoulli do you wish to see-‘Hydrodynamics’ Bemoulli. to quote a statement of Poincark. Chapter 3. a normal distribution. gamblers sometimes say that it is more likely to come down tails next time because ‘by the law of averages’ (whatever that may mean) the proportion of tails must be brought right some time. then since I do not know what I am doing how would I dare act on the conclusions drawn? Hamming. 140) . 241) If the prior distribution.C. Richard W. ’Calculus’ Bernoulli. The Art of Probability for Scientists and Engineers (p. ‘Geodesic’ Bemoulli. at which I am frankly guessing. . Probability and Induction (p. 1947 (p. When a coin has come down heads twice in succession. Mark Statistical lndependence in Probability Analysis and Number Theoy . and if it has a large effect. then why bother. W. 52) A mathematician in Reno. The Normal Law (p. Overcome by the heat and the vino. And was killed by the crows playing Keno. and never will be. has little or no effect on the result. the fallacy of the maturity of chances. Geary. B iometrika Testing for Normality Volume 34. Kelly-Bootle. there never has.

G. Such is the paradox. May. Robert M. Nature Simple Mathematical Models with very Complicated Dynamics Volume 261. Its study does not involve as much conceptual sophistication as does elementary calculus. Quoted in DArcy Thompson’s On Growth and Form Volume I (p. et les mathhaticiens d‘itreun fait expkimental! [Everybody believes in the [normal approximation]. Number 6. employ the chi-square test incorrectly. June 10. Lewis. and precisely because we do not know. taken in the aggregate. the experimenters hn because they t i k it is a mathematical theorem. 467) We know not to what are due the accidental errors. 406) . B-21) Les Expbimentateurs s’imaginent que c‘est un thiorhe de mathhatique. Poincark. 433) Distribute dissatisfaction uniformly. Don Burke.A.J. Henri The Foundations o Science f Science and Method (p. we are aware they obey the law of Gauss.1976 (p. November 1949 (p. the mathematicians because they think it is an experimental fact!] Lippmann. Lidberg. Psychological Bulletin The Use and Misuse of the Chi-square Test Volume 46. Not only in research but also in the everyday world of politics and economics.DISTRIBUTIONS 73 It has become increasingly apparent over a period of several years that psychologists. Such study would greatly enrich the student’s intuition about nonlinear systems. C. we would all be better off if more people realized that simple nonlinear systems do not necessarily possess simple dynamical properties. 121) I would therefore urge that people be introduced to [the logistic equation] early in their mathematical education. A. or even by hand. Quoted in Paul Dickson’s The OfFcial Explanations (p. This equation can be studied phenomenologically by iterating it on a calculator.

Statistics.” unknown Quoted in Amold 0. and Queueing Theory with Computer Science Applications (p. there ain’t a curve in the world that can save you. 84) You have two chancesOne of getting the germ And one of not. . Pynchon. Pynchon. elegant. and Queueing Theory m’th Computer Science Applications (p. you still have two chances. 54) But a hardon. . nearly understands his Poisson equation . Allen‘s Probability. Unknown An exterminator made this contribution On rats arriving in random profusion ”I know nothing of math. . Binary. Unknown When you get an 8 on the midterm. Statistics. Thomas Gravity’s Rainbow (p. . And if you dieWell. that’s either there. But I handle ’em with Poisson distributions. 86) Keep your hyperexponential away from me! unknown Quoted in Amold 0. Thomas Gravity‘s Rainbow (p. Allen’s Probability. The job of observing it can even be done by a student. 178) .74 STATlSTlCALLY SPEAKING Roger has tried to explain to her the V-bomb statistics: the difference between distribution . or it isn’t. And if you get the disease You have two chancesOne of dying And one of not. She’s almost got it. Probability of stats. And if you get the germ You have two chancesOne of getting the disease And one of not.

178) The normal law of error stands out in the experience of mankind as one of the broadest generalizations of natural philosophy. It is an indispensable tool for the analysis and the interpretation of the basic data obtained by observation and experiment. J. Allen’s n Probability. 55) See also The American Statistician April-May 1950 (p. It serves as the guiding instrument in researches in the physical and social sciences and in medicine. Statistics. Youden. 178) Socrates took Poisson. Unknown Quoted i Arnold 0. agriculture and engineering. Allen’s n Probability. and Queueing Theory with Computer Science Applications (p. W. Statistics. Unknown Quoted i Arnold 0. and Queueing Theory with Computer Science Applications (p. 11) .DISTRIBUTIONS 75 Monique is exponentially distributed. Experimentation and Measurement (p.

Anscombe.ERROR If frequently I fret and fume. But truth has but one way to be i’ th’ right.J. Franklin Tobogganing on Pamassus Erring in Company One sufficiently erroneous reading can wreck the whole of a statistical analysis. Old Socrates and T. for he does not know the correct answer. and he does not know that he does not know it. Technometrics Rejection of Outliers Volume 2. Borel. According to the subtle remark made by a famous Greek philosopher. I err in company with H u e .114 76 . 226) The problem of error has preoccupied philosophers since the earliest antiquity. the man who makes a mistake is twice ignorant. And absolutely will not smile. Butler. F. Carlyle. 1960 (p. b i l e Probability and Certainty Chapter 9 (p. Adams. 114) For error and mistake are infinite. Samuel The Poetical Works Miscellaneous Thoughts 1. however many observations there are.

Charles Caleb Lacon: or many things in a few words (p. William Cowper: Poetical Works Truth 1. Edwin The Tangier Papers of Samuel Pepys (p. Colton. 2) Man. for error is always more busy than ignorance. Cowper. especially as ti was done before they sighted land. viz. Cage. and it was corrected accordingly. ”Hell that’s why they make erasers. da Vinci. Clarence Quoted in Irving Stone’s Clarence Darrow for the Defense (p. 1 0 mathematicians. Lewis The Complete Works of Lewis Carroll A Tangled Tale Pepys probably did not much increase his popularity in the Grafton by getting Dartmouth to call for the dead-reckoning from twelve different hs persons on board. on the dubious waves of error toss’d.. Chappell.ERROR 77 An error is simply a failure to adjust immediately from a preconception to an actuality. It measures the average of the difference between a complete . the standard error. 75) Precision is expressed by a n international standard. 64) If someone made a mistake he would drawl. throw light on this error.’’ Darrow. xxxviii) Mal-information is more hopeless than non-information. Their errors were subsequently found to be very considerable--one was as much as seventy leagues out! It is interesting to note that the inference drawn from these discrepancies was that the chart must be wrong. John Silence 1961 45’ for a Speaker No error at all! They were positively steeped in error! Carroll. Leonardo The Notebooks of Leonardo da Vinci Volume I Philosophy (p.

and processed by a particular estimating formula. From correspondence with him before the War . 73) It is doubtful if "Student" ever realized the full importance of his contribution to the Theory of Errors. Erasmus. William Edwards Journal of the American Statistical Association O n the Presentation of the Results of Sample Surveys as Legal Evidence Volume 49. 1955 (p. the idea of calculating its extent may appear paradoxical. Edgeworth. . Evans. although apparently only a harmless piece of technical jargon. would have sought to gain similar advantages in more complex problems. Bergen The Natural H i s t o y of Nonsense A Tale of a Tub The phrase "Errors of the Second Kind". 820) Errors. A science of errors seems a contradiction in terms. Probably he felt. He who would search for pearls must dive below. and better still. Sir Ronald A. however. . . Number 17. 1. Deming. like straws. . . Francis Ysidro Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Volume 53 (p. passed without the writers in Biometrika. 462) Error is Prolific. December 1954 (p. Prologue. upon the surface flow. Dryden. had the problem really been so important as it had once seemed. Five years. the leading authorities in English statistics would have at least given him the encouragement of recommending the use of his method. I should form a confident judgment that at that time certainly he did not see how big a thing he had done . John The Poetical Works of D y d e n All for Love.78 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING coverage and a long series of estimates formed from samples drawn from this complete coverage by a particular procedure or drawing. Desiderius Epicureus No error is harmless. 25 However we define error. Fisher. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Statistical Methods and Scientific Induction Series B. Number 268. is useful as indicating the type of mental confusion in which it was coined.

Hugo. or a multitude of strands. like the largest ropes. . Victor Les Miskrables Cosette Book V. the system of tests of which Student was the prototype was logically complete. Only during the thirteen years which have since passed has “Student’s” work found its proper place as an experiment resource. Thomas H.S. Thomas H. Chapter 10 It sounds paradoxical to say the attainment of scientific truth has been effected. Hobbes. Huxley. . Chapter I V The greatest follies are often composed. in 1928. to a great extent. Method and Results Natural Rights and Political Rights (p. Method and Results The Progress of Science (p. Huxley. Froude. 369) . W. Fisher. James Anthony Short Studies on Great Subjects Spinoza An error? What error? Gilbert. Thomas Mathan Part I. 63) There is no greater mistake than the hasty conclusion that opinions are worthless because they are badly argued. Annals of Eugenics Student Volume 9. This weighty apathy must greatly have chilled his enthusiasm . showing any sign of appreciating the signrficance of his work. Sullivan. 1939 (p. Sir Ronald A. by the help of scientific errors.ERROR 79 the joumal in which he had published. Arthur The Complete Plays of Gilbert and Sullivan The Pirates of Penance Act I Nature itself cannot err. 5) No vehement error can exist in this world with impunity. It was sixteen years before.

Thomas H. . Henri The Foundations of Science Science and Method (p. the errors are not the art. . Poincark. When I make a mistake. it’s a beaut. without affixing to it its probable mor. 219) . . W. . even with the best instruments. He’s more than mortal that ne’er err’d at all. To how many snares is not the observer exposed. quantities which are called m o r s in one case. 339) . Manners. 145 . Jevons.80 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING . Here it is that the causes are complex and multitude. . John The Poetical Works o John Pomfret f Love Triumphant over Reason 1. Collected Essays The Coming of Age of ”The Origin of Species” Volume I1 . When we speak of eliminating error we really mean disentangling the complicated phenomena of nature. may really be most important and interesting phenomena in another investigation. but in the artifiers. William Patience and Fortitude (p. geodesy. . and metrical astronomy-no man of self-respect ever now states his results. Newton. irrationally held truths may be more harmful than reasoned errors. 3) f A final word about the theory of errors. 402) The best may slip. The Principles o Science f Chapter 15 (p. . Peirce. . Pomfret. and the most cautious fall.S. Hwley. Charles Sanders Philosophical Writing o Peirce (p. and if this practice is not followed in other sciences it is because in those the probable errors are too vast to be estimated. Sir Isaac Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy Preface to the First Edition In those sciences of measurement which are the least subject to errormeteorology.

which they acknowledge. and continue to use. Tukey. It is far easier to put out a figure. The American Statistician Memorandum on Statistics in the Federal Government Volume 3. Henry David Winter 9 Jan 1842 For the Bureau has worked hard to leam the accuracy of its measurements and it supplies with each weight a certificate indicating how much the weight may differ from exactly one pound. I’m not going to deny that you don’t now and then slip up on something. than to accompany the figure with a wise and reasoned account of its liability to systematic and fluctuating errors. . Reagan Seeks to Stiffen Credibility Grip 20 April 1980 (A8) Always expect to find at least one error when you proofread your own statistics. Alfred N. Watson.. Yet if the figure is . Reagan. Unknown A Type IV error is a wrong solution to the wrong problem. the accompanying amount may be more important than the figures themselves. Chicago. If you don’t. 9) A Type I11 error is a good solution to the wrong problem. Statement made at a meeting of the American Statistical Association. no one bats a thousand. Russell. Now.. Cheryl Quoted in Tom Parker’s Rules o Thumb (p. to serve as the basis of an important decision. 124) f One cannot too soon forget his errors . When the Bureau of the Census makes an enumeration. February 1949 (p. . . Number 5. . because I believe they are correct. They know the extent of the errors from many sources and they try to leam more about those from others . John W. there are errors. Thoreau.ERROR 81 I will stand on. Ronald Washington Post On Bandwagon. the figures I have used. 1942 . The calibration of the weight is valuable just because its possible error is known. Unknown A standard error is just as bad as any other error. you are probably making the same mistake twice.

Whitehead. 68) - .82 STATISTlCALLY SP EAKlNG There is great room for error here. Alfred North Science and the Modern World Chapter I1 The dice of God me always loaded. Ralph Waldo Bhnerrron (See p.

Bloch. Sludge. 15) The experiment may be considered a success if no more than 50% of the observed measurements must be discarded to obtain a correspondence with the theory. 248) “This is the most interesting Experiment” the Professor announced.] Cahier. Robert The Poems and Plays o Robert BrDwning f Mr. something has gone wrong. [Experiment is the mother of science. Browning. ’The Medium’ La Experiencia madre es de la ciencia. but only take counsel from the Occurrence of circumstances. . 70 If an experiment works. Arthur Murphy‘s Law Finangle’s First Law (p. Charles Quelques Six Mille Prmerbes (p. . Bacon. 47) Just an experiment first. Bloch. Francis The Nmum Organon First Book. but advance little. .EXPERIMENT But the method of experiment which men now make use of is blind and stupid: and so. Arthur Murphy‘s Law Maier’s Law: Corollary (p. ”It will need time. they are carried about to many points. while they wander and stray without any certain way. for candour’s sake. Now 83 . I’m afraid: but that is a trifling disadvantage.

and let go. Charles The Life and Letters of Charles Darwin Volume I C. for they are so absurd even in my opinion that I dare not tell you. .D. Lecture in Washington. you would have a good right to sneer. You do not deny that?" Again. If I were to unhook this weight. "And in the same way. that it ca'n't straighten itself any more. The Professor looked at his watch. WE MUST KNOW ALSO THE PROCEDURE BY . 11 January 1951 If you knew some of the experiments (if they may be so-called) which I am trying. why shouldn't the same thing happen with the weight. now suppose we left things as they are. when completed. Gertrude M. Now. nobody denied it. finds repeatedly that he makes his most valuable contribution simply by persuading the investigator to explain why he wishes to do the experiment. "Well. Darwin. "Well. for a long time. Cox. I think a thousand years will do to begin with. and it would stay bent. you know. if I were to bend this piece of whalebone round stays bent: the post-thus-and put the ring over this hook-thus-it but. it straightens itself again. 18551 (p. that it ca'n't fall any more? That's what I want to know!" "That's what we want to know!" echoed the crowd. will assist him in his research. "How long must we wait?" grumbled the Emperor. Why shouldn't the weight get so used to being held up. 415) WE MUST KNOW MORE ABOUT A PLAN THAN THE PROBABILITIES OF SELECTION. Hooker [April 14th. The whalebone gets so used to being bent. You do not deny that?" Nobody denied it. and to explain why it is that the experiment. if I unhook it. Lewis . Darwin to J. The force of the whalebone would get exhausted. even when you unhooked it.. by persuading him to justdy the experimental treatments. it would fall to the ground.84 STATISTICALLY SPEAKlNG observe. Carroll.'I The Complete Works of Lewis Carroll Sylvie and Bruno Concluded Chapter XXI The statistician who supposes that his main contribution to the planning of an experiment will involve statistical theory.

The more experiments the better. All life is an experiment. Eldridge. A Tale of the Sixteenth Centuy (p. . . the null hypothesis is never proved or established. Ralph Waldo Journals of Ralph Waldo Emerson . Fisher. Hume. however accurate or certain. Green.EXPERIMENT 85 WHICH TO DRAW THE SAMPLING UNITS. 77) . 140) . Deming. William St. William Edwards Sampling Design in Business Research (p. 17) There are some things that are sure to go wrong as soon as they stop going right. Fisher. Godwin. AND THE FORMULA OR PROCEDURE BY WHICH TO CALCULATE THE ESTIMATE. Paul Maxims for a Modern Man 1286 Do not be too timid and squeamish about your actions. 171) No experiment can be more precarious than that of a half-confidence. He can perhaps say what the experiment died of. but is possibly disapproved. Sir Ronald A. Sankya Indian Statistical Congress. Leon. Emerson. ca 1938 Volume 4 (p. . Sir Ronald A. 39) Those who fear muddy feet will never discover new paths. Celia The Decline and Fall of Science Aphorisms (p. . David An Enquiy Concerning Human Understanding -ion VI1 (p. 19) To consult the statistician after an experiment is finished is often merely to ask him to conduct a post mortem examination. The Design of Experiments (p. Every experiment may be said to exist only in order to give the facts a chance of disproving the null hypothesis. in the course of experimentation. it being justly esteemed an unpardonable temerity to judge the whole course of nature from one single experiment.

.March 4.86 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING Why t i k Why not try the experiment? hn? Hunter.ll December 1980 (p. 23-4) . 627) Every experiment is like a weapon which must be used in its particular way-a spear to thrust. when tested by the severe processes of modem investigation. . in the full tide of successful experiment . 1801 . 1775 Ancient traditions. John Letter to Edward Jenner. 15) . The American Statistician Hiawatha Designs an Experiment Volume 13.August 2. . Maurice G. theory is a good thing but a good experiment lasts forever. Planck. a club to strike. Thomas The Inaugural Addresses of the Presidents of the United States First Inaugural Address at Washington DC. Man's Place in Nature I (p. Huxley. December 1959 (pp. Thomas H. Number 5. presaging a reality. Jefferson. . commonly enough fade away into mere dreams: but it is singular how often the dream tums out to have been a half-waking one. Experimenting requires a man who knows when to thrust and when to strike. Paracelsus. each according to need and fashion. Kapitza. . 1) Hiawatha Designs an Experiment Kendall. . Max A Survey of Physics The Unity of the Physical Universe (p. Philippus Aureolus Surgeon's Book If one wishes to obtain a definite answer from Nature one must attack the question from a more general and less selfish point of view. Pyetr Leonidovich Nature Science East and West: Reflections of Peter Kapitza (Book Review by Nevill Mott) Volume 288.

Mark Adam’s Diary . Poincar6. 0 chaerephon. The other animals are glad. for she was always experimenting with them and bothering them. because the snake talks. That is impossible. hs Twain. and I am glad. there are many arts among mankind which are experimental. it alone can give us certainty. Rutherford. Ernest Quoted in N. Bailey’s The Mathematical Approach to Biology and Medicine Chapter 2 (p. 127) It is often said that experiments must be made without preconceived ideas. Plato Gorgias 448 Experiment is the sole source of truth. and different persons in different ways are proficient in different arts. for experience makes the days of men to proceed according to art. you ought to have done a better experiment.T. 129) If your experiment needs statistics. The Bible 1 Thessalonians 5:21 Tuesday. but that would be attempted which could not be done. and have their origin in experience. 23) Prove all things. Henri The Foundations o Science f Science and Hypothesis (p. It alone can teach us something new. She has taken up with a snake now. Not only would it make all experiment barren.EXPERIMENT 87 Polus. Henri The Foundations o Science f Science and Hypothesis (p. and the best persons in the best arts. hold fast that which is good. and t i enables me to get a rest. PoincarC. and inexperience according to chance.

Search for the guilty 8. Wild enthusiasm 2. who says so distinctly "No" and so indistinctly "Yes" to our theories. Exciting commitments 3. . Disillusionment 6.88 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING The Eleven Phases of an Experiment 1. Unknown If an experiment is not worth doing at all. Cross-accusations 7. Total confusion 4. Re-evaluation of goals 5. xx) . it is not worth doing well. once and for all. Hermann The Theory o Groups and Quantum Mechanics f Introduction ( p . Weyl. It can always be used as a bad example. Verbally assassinate visible leaders 11. Promote the non-participants 10. Alfred N r h ot Adventures o Ideas f Foresight Section I . Punish the innocent 9. my deep respect for the work of the experimenter and for his fight to wring signrficant facts from an inflexible Nature. Write and publish the report Unknown Diversity of treatment has been responsible for much of the criticism leveled against the experiment. experiment is nothing else than a mode of cooking the facts for the sake of exemphfying the law. Unknown Allow me to express now. . Unknown You must be using the wrong equipment if an experiment works. Whitehead. Unknown No experiment is ever a complete failure.

or at least as certain as other facts. Stop subtracting the date and get Balchin. 435) Entrenching himself behind an undeniable fact. Abbott. hn. but with a false one the facts soon clash. Alcott. all they needed was explanation." are. "So they with it. Louisa May Little Women XXXV ." said Tiilly sulkily. 68) The facts seemed certain. Flafland (p. . and figures are figures. 101) "Well facts are facts. Aristotle The Nicomchean Ethics Book I. Amold. 24) 89 . Adams. Edwin A. . I t i k he hardly can. Henry The Education of H n y A d a m er The Abyss of Ignorance (p. Chapter VI11 Deny the facts altogether. Nigel The Small Back Room (p. with a true view all the data harmonize. Matthew Discourse in America Literature and Science (p.FACTS From dreams I proceed to facts.

53) Facts were never pleasing to him. Barrie. Belinski. or my opinions or your opinions or what?” Balchin. Bernard. 34) . Frederick The Scientific Habit of Thought (p. The Greenwood Hat Love me Never or Forever (pp. Barry. 13) f Facts are neither great or small in themselves.90 STATlSTlCALLY SPEAKING ”Am I supposed to give all the facts. 50-51) To an ordinary person a fact is a fact. everything will crumble or be falsified. 348) If the facts used as the basis for reasoning are ill-established or erroneous. Claude A n Introduction to the Study of Expm‘mental Medicine ( p . Sir J. He acquired them with reluctance and got rid of them with relief. or some of the facts. Frederick The Scientific Habit o Thought (p. He was never on terms with them u t l he ni had stood them on their heads. 91) A fact is no simple thing. and it is thus that errors in scientific theories most often originate in errors of fact. there is no science. Nigel The Small Back Room (p. and that is all there is to be said about it. Claude A n Introduction to the Study o Expm’mental Medicine ( p . 92) In science one must search for ideas. Frederick The Scientific Habit of Thought (p.M. Barry. Barry. coercive. A knowledge of facts is only valuable in so far as facts conceal ideas: facts without ideas are just the sweepings of the brain and the memory. Bernard. If there are no ideas. Vissarion Grigorievich Collected Works Volume 2 (p. 91) f Facts are to begin with.

] Burns. that the wicked work harder tew reach Hell. 76 Facts are chiels that winna ding an’ downa be disputed. Claude A n Introduction to the Study o Experimental Medicine (p. Sludge.30 . Buchner. Robert The Ring and the Book Part I1 Half-Rome. it is useless to “kick against the pricks”. Budgell. Eustace Liberty and Progress ii. than the righteous do tew git to heaven. vi) But enough of facts! Buchner. it has value only through the idea connected with it or through the proof it supplies. Robert The Poems and Plays of Robert Browning Mr. in the long run there is no contending against facts. 231) Plain matters of fact are terrible stubbom things. Ludwig Force and Matter Preface to the First Edition (p. 1 1049 . Browning. [Facts are entities which cannot be manipulated or disputed. Billings. Browning. Josh Old Probability: Perhaps Rain-Perhaps Not April 1870 This plain. plump fact. Ludwig Force and Matter Brain and Mind (p. Robert The Complete Poetical Works o Robert Bums f A Dream. . 53) f It is a statistikal fakt. .FACTS 91 A fact is nothing in itself. Bernard. . ’The Medium’ But facts are facts and flinch not. 1.

F. Cohen. 1971 (p. Carroll. and theory less and less. for no one could possibly have imagined them. 24) They demand facts from him. Number Forty The Theory hardly rose to the dignity of a Working Hypothesis. if not by God. then at least by the Devil. Clearly more Facts were needed. Crawford. Marion Don Orsino xv . Conrad. The Lost Worlds o 2001 f Chapter 30 Every lawyer knows that the name of the game is what label you succeed in imposing on the facts. Number Forty Some facts are so incredible that they are believed at once. 1836 First accumulate a mass of Facts: and then construct a Theory.92 STATlSTZCALLY SPEAKlNG I grow to honor facts more and more. April 29. that are so often more enigmatic than the craftiest arrangement of words. A fact. Carlyle. Lewis The Complete Works of Lewis Carroll Sylvie and Bruno Queer Street. Thomas Letter to Ralph Waldo Emerson. Clarke. Arthur C. Jerome Tense Triangle-What Time to Do About Taiwan June 7. is a great thing-a sentence printed. it seems to me.as if facts could explain anything. Joseph Lord Jim IV The language of facts. Lewis The Complete Works of Lewis Carroll Sylvie and Bruno Queer Street. Conrad. Joseph Lord Jim XXXVI Facts make life long-not years. Carroll.

Charles The Work of Charles Dickens Hard Times Book I. Sir Arthur Stanley The Nature of the Physical World (p. Dickens. sir. nothing but Facts. Charles The Work of Charles Dickens Pickwick Papers Chapter 4 (p. Dickens. Eddington. but conceived facts. Einstein. Chapter I In this life we want nothing but Facts.1947 We hew and saw and plane facts to make them dovetail with our prejudices. Charles The Work of Charles Dickens Hard Times Book I. so that they become mere omaments with which to parade our objectivity. what I want are facts . Dickens. Facts alone are wanted in life. Dickens.FACTS 93 The trouble with facts is that there are so many of them. 183) Now. . 46) Facts and Figures! Put ‘em down. Samuel McChord The Gentle Reader (p. 305) I am absolutely convinced that one will eventually arrive at a theory in which the objects connected by laws are not probabilities. Charles The Work of Charles Dickens The Chimes: First Quarter With fuller knowledge we should sweep away the references to probability and substitute the exact facts. Albert Letter to Max Bom December 3. Crothers. Eldridge. Chapter 1 The labors of others have raised for us an immense reservoir of important facts. . Paul Maxims for a Modern M a n 2098 .

. with no Past at my back. Ralph Waldo Essays History (p. 57) A little fact is worth a whole limbo of dreams . Ralph Waldo Essays Experience (p. 14) I distrust the facts and the inferences.94 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING Combining superstition with facts is often as efficacious as breaking rocks with fists. Emerson. Ralph Waldo Essays Circles (p. none are profane. no cable. Eldridge. Emerson. Eliott. Fabing. Emerson. 205) Facts are stubborn things. no fences avail to keep a fact a fact. Emerson. Paul Maxims for a Modem Man 2168 You seem to have a decided faculty for digestingfucts as evidence. 35) No facts are to me sacred. 21) . Harold M r Ray a.. Ralph Waldo Lectures and Biographical Sketches The Superlative Facts are not s c i e n c e a s the dictionary is not literature. I simply experiment. Eldridge. Eliot. Ebenezer Field Husbandry (p. 297) No anchor. Fischerisms (p. Paul Maxims for a Modem Man 2159 Facts only emphasize that men are guided by fancies. an endless seeker. George The George Eliot Letters Volume I1 (p.

James Anthony Short Studies on Great Subjects The Grammar of Assent (pp. and by an unintermittent skepticism which goes out of its way to look for difficulties. Scene VI1 (p. Froude. Desderius and Luther (p. 89-90) Facts are no longer looked in the face. James Anthony Short Studies on Great Subjects Times of Erasmus. if we evade or deny them. . and objections are either ignored altogether or are caricatured in order to be answered. but facts were made for us.FACTS 95 We may make our own opinions. Let’s get the facts. 11) These are facts which no casuistry can explain away. James Anthony Short Studies on Great Subjects The Grammar of Assent (p. Froude. 11) It is through a conviction of the inadequacy of all formulas to cover the facts of nature. 453) 4th VOICE. 99) Facts can be accurately known to us only by the most rigid observation and sustained and scrutinizing skepticism. James Anthony Short Studies on Great Subjects Calvinism (p. Froude. . that scientific progress has been made possible. and. James Anthony Short Studies on Great Subjects Scientific Method Applied to History (p. it is by a constant recollection of the fallibility of the best instructed intelligence. Garson. James Anthony Short Studies on Great Subjects Calvinism (p. Froude. Let’s go and watch TV. Froude. Barbara MacBird Act I. Froude. 41) The necessitarian fall back upon the experienced reality of facts. it will be the worse for us. 18) .

Arthur The Complete Plays of GiZbert and Sullivan The Mikado Act I1 The acts and facts of to-day continually diverge from the concepts of yesterday. Get the facts! Heinlein. 212) What are the facts? Again and again and again-what are the facts? Shun wishful thinking.” Harrison.W. facts are your single clue. O. 264) The more facts one has. Heyworth. Charlotte P. Sullivan. l They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain. care not what the neighbors t i k never mind hn.S. Sir Geoffrey Inaugural Address President of the Royal Statistical Society 1949 A l generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called ”facts”. Gilbert.96 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING Her taste exact For faultless fact Amounts to a disease. W. Time Enough f i r Lave (p. the easier it is to put them together wrong. The Autocrat of the Brealgfast Table Chapter 1 . “Well. but one must never forget the corollary that the more facts one has. the better the judgment one can make. Human Work Concept and Conduct (p. might come in handy. avoid opinion. 41) ”And of what possible use is that information?” Kerk asked. you never know. forget what ”the stars foretell”. the unguessable ”verdict of history”-what are the facts. Harry Astounding The Mothballed Spaceship (p. Gilman. Holmes. and how many decimal places? You pilot always into an unknown future. Robert A. ignore divine revelation.

” ”You are right. Sherlock in Arthur Conan Doyle’s The Complete Sherlock Holmes The Problem of Thor Bridge . Sherlock in Arthur Conan Doyle’s The Complete Sherlock Holmes The Boscombe Valley Mystery There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact. “you do find it very hard to tackle the facts. preemptory facts are bullies and those who keep company with them are apt to get a bullying habit of mind . but if a false note is uttered. .W. O. Holmes. deduce from it not only all the chain of events which led up to it. Holmes. Sherlock in Arthur Conan Doyle’s The Complete Sherlock Holmes The Boscombe Valley Mystery If you will find the facts. to thoughts about facts. .” said Holmes demurely.” Holmes. when he has once been shown a single fact in all its bearings. “would.W. without flying away after theories and fancies. O. . Holmes. .FACTS 97 Absolute. The Autocrat o the BreaYast Table f Chapter 3 Facts always yield the place of honor in conversation. The Autocrat of the BreaYast Table Chapter 6 ”The ideal reasoner.” Holmes. Holmes. Sherlock in Arthur Conan Doyle’s The Complete Sherlock Holmes The Five Orange Pips “I find it hard enough to tackle facts. down comes the finger on the key and the man of facts asserts his true dignity. Holmes. perhaps others may find the explanation.” he remarked. but also all the results which would follow from it .

Huxley. Huxley. Aldous Time Must Have a Stop (p. it invariably proves to be capable of bearing some other interpretation. 127) Those who refuse to go beyond fact rarely get as far as fact. Henry The Spoils o Poynton f Preface I have to forge every sentence in the teeth of irreducible and stubbom facts. ”I ought to know by this time that when a fact appears to be opposed to a long train of deductions. elsewhere they say nothing or talk nonsense . Sitting on a wise man’s knee they may be made to utter words of wisdom. .98 STAT1STICALL. I ”I should have more faith. James. Huxley.” Holmes. 205) . . 301) Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored. he had one eye upon fact. Sherlock in Arthur Conan Doyle’s The Complete Sherlock Holmes A Study in Scarlet Facts are ventriloquists’dummies. .” he said. Thomas H. Thomas H. and the other on Genesis. Holmes. Sherlock in Arthur Conan Doyle’s The Complete Sherlock Holmes The Adventure of Wisteria Lodge. Methods and Results The Progress of Science (p. 62) The fatal futility of Fact. Aldous Proper Studies A Note on Dogma (p. Huxley. . James.Y SPEAKING A further knowledge of facts is necessary before I would venture to give ia a f n l and definite opinion. William Letter to brother Henry James . Methods and Results The Progress of Science (p.

The American Psychologist Maier‘s Law March 1960 (p. stanza 8 What you want are facts. Meredith. 419) Facts are stubbom things. Florence Notes on Nursing Chapter XI11 . Chapter XX (p.F. 99 Kipling. 208) If the facts do not conform to the theory. canto iii. One of the most common is to give the facts a new hs name. 391) The method of how psychologists as scientists dispose of facts is of special interest. Robert Real Estate Law (p. Owen (Lord Lytton) Lucile Part 11. LaSage.R. Rudyard Rudyard Kipling’s Verse McAndrew’s Verse An impartial and reliable research substitutes facts for hunches. N. Alan Rent5 The Adventure of Gil Blas o Santillane f Book X . The effect has its cause. N. The American Psychologist Maier’s Law March 1960 (p.FACTS Just statin’ eevidential facts beyon’ all argument.F. In t i way they are given a special compartment and therefore cease to infringe on the privacy of the theory. Agnes C. Laut. Maier. The Conquest o the Great Northwest f Part 111. and I mount to the cause. Kratovil. Maier. not opinionsNightingale.R. they must be disposed of. 208) To all facts there are laws. Chapter I The ultimate umpire of all things in Life is-Fact.

Science consists of using good facts.when technical people talk they always emphasize the facts that they are not sure. Julius Robert Harper's Magazine The T e of Knowledge re Volume 217. then is the time that spring begins. collect facts. 1 149 . [Believe the facts] Ovid Fasti 11. Peers. 67) Leam. Facts are not all equal. I'm not afraid of facts. Latin .57) When five days later the Morning Star has lifted up its radiance bright from out the ocean waves. Reader We are the Crazy Lady and Other Feisty Feminist Fables (p. I welcome facts-but a congeries o acts is not f equivalent to an idea. There are good facts and bad facts.35) Res ipse laquitur [The fact speaks for itself] Phrase. October 1958 (p. . indeed they are: departing winter leaves behind great tokens of himself. Ivan Bequest of the Academic Youth of Soviet Russia 1936 Gross's Postulate. Cynthia Quoted in Francis Klagsbrun's The First Ms. Ozick. Oppenheimer. cold days are still in store for thee. compare. But yet be not deceived. Pavlov. they are gossips.100 STATISTICALLY SPEAK" Facts are carpet-tacks under the pneumatic tires of theory. John 2001 Logical Laws (p. . Austin Keystones of Thought . This is the essential fallacy of the so-called "scientific" mind. People who mistake facts for ideas are incomplete thinkers. OMalley.

Poincark. PoincarC. Henri The Foundations of Science Science and Method (p. We have been so fortunate as to be born in a world where there are such.] Plautus Aulularia 1. We are all imprisoned by facts. 301) The facts of greatest outcome are those we think simple.FACTS 101 The facts are to blame my friend. [Facts speak for themselves. PoincarC. 128) . these are the facts which have a chance of coming up again. may be they really are so. Planck. Luigi The Rules o the Game. 363) Science is built up with facts. Henri The Foundations o Science f Science and Method (pp. . But a collection of facts is no more a science than a heap of stones is a house. 421 see also Aldous Huxley’s Time Must Have a Stop (p. 544-5) . M x a A Survey of Physics New Path of Physical Knowledge (pp. because they are influenced only by a small number of welldefined circumstances. 127) A fact is a fact. for this is his particular work. the most interesting facts are those which may serve many times. Henri The Foundations of Science Science and Hypothesis (p. 72-3) Res ipsa testit. as a house is with stones. Henri The Foundations o Science f Science and Hypothesis (p. PoincarC. may be they take on an appearance of simplicity because the various circumstances upon which they depend obey the laws of chance and so come to mutually compensate. Pirandello. The Life I Gave you land1 Lnzarus f Nothing is more interesting to the true theorist than a fact which directly contradicts a theory generally accepted up to that time. .

102

STATISTICALLY S P E A K "

I beg to advise you of the following facts of which I happen to be the equally impartial and horrified witness. Queneau, Raymond
Exercises in Style Official Letter

But it was a fact-not a theory, not a hypothesis, but a fact-that was attracted, that she did trust, that she did believe.

she

Roberts, Nora
Without a Trace Chapter 5 (p. 104)

With solid facts on hand one may have only one undisputed explanation; with no facts, there can be a dozen argumentative ones.

Romanoff, Alexis L. Encyclopedia o Thoughts f Aphorisms 2411
Facts were facts, fantasies were fantasies. And never the twain should meet.

Ross, JoAnn
Tempting Fate Chapter One

Science, as its name implies, is primarily knowledge; by convention it is knowledge of a certain kind, the kind namely, which seeks general laws connecting a number of particular facts.

Russell, Bertrand A.
The Scientific Outlook Introduction

One of the chief motivations behind the attempt to defend a distinction between theoretical and observational terms has been the desire to explain how a theory can be tested against the data of experience, and how one theory can be said to "account for the facts" better than another; that is, to give a precise characterization of the idea, almost universally accepted in modem times, that the sciences are "based on experience," that they are "empirical".

Shapere, Dudly
Philosophical Problems of Natural Science (p. 15)

FACTS

103

Putiokim:In Russia we face facts.
Edstaston: In England, sir, a gentleman never faces any facts if they are unpleasant facts.

Putiokim:In real life, all facts are unpleasant.
Shaw, George Bernard
Complete Plays with Prefaces Volume IV Great Catherine Scene I

A mere fact will never stop an Englishman.

Shaw, George Bernard
Speech, October 28, 1930

. . . the facts, the stubbom, immovable facts.
Smedley, F.E.
Frank Fairlegh or Scenes from the Life of a Private Pupil Chapter 49

Facts are facts, as the saying is. Smollett, Tobias
The Life and Adventures o Sir Latincelot Greaves f Chapter III

Comment is free but facts are on expense. Stoppard, Tom
Night and Day Act 2

Facts speak louder than statistics. Streatfield, Mr. Justice Geoffrey The O s r e bevr
Sayings of the Week, 19 March, 1950

Let us look at the facts. Terence
Adelphoe 1. 796

Matters of fact, which as Mr. Budgell somewhere observes, are very stubbom things. Tindall, Matthew
The Will o Matthew Tindall (p. 23) f

104

STATISTICALLY S P E A K ”

Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please. Twain, Mark
Quoted in Rudyard Kipling’s From Sea to Sea An Interview with Mark Twain

My mind is made up, do not confuse me with facts.
unknown

We want the facts to fit the preconceptions. When they don’t, it is easier to ignore the facts than change the preconceptions. West, Jessamyn
The Quaker Reader Introduction (p. 2)

No matter of fact can be mathematically demonstrated, though it may be proved in such a manner as to leave no doubt on the mind.
Whatley, Richard
Logic IV

It was an ultimate fact. Whitehead, Alfred North
Science and the Modern World Chapter I11

They remain ’stubbom fact’ . . . Whitehead, Alfred North
Adventures o Ideas f Philosophic Method Section XVII

But a fact ‘contrary’ is consciousness in germ . . . Consciousness requires more than the mere entertainment of theory. It is the feeling of the contrast of theory, as mere theory with fact, as mere fact. This contrast holds whether or not the theory is correct. Whitehead, Alfred North
Process and Reality Part I1 Discussions and Applications Propositions Section I

FACTS

105

A chain of facts is like a barrier reef. On one side there is wreckage, and beyond it harbourage and safety. Whitehead, Alfred N r h ot
Process and Reality Part I11 The Theory of Prehensions The Theory of Feelings Section I V

There is nothing in the real world which is merely an inert fact . . Whitehead, Alfred North
I

Process and Reality The Theory of Extension Part IV

Facts fled before philosophy like frightened forest things.
Wilde, Oscar
The Picture o Dorian Gray f I11

?
ITS A HOUSE!

Science is built up with facts, aa a house is with stones. But a collection of facts is no more a science than a heap of stones is a house.
H d pOinau4

-

(See p. 101)

FORECAST

Foreknowledge of the future makes it possible to manipulate both enemies and supporters.
Aron, Raymond
The Opium of the Intellectuals Chapter IX (p. 284)

How could one haruspex look another in the face without laughing?
Cicero
Cicero: De Senectute, De Amicitia, De Divinatione De Divinatione ii, 24

Forecasting in economics is an activity fully licensed in the City of Action and the City of Intellect. Sought and subsidized by executives in govemment and business, it is also recognized and accredited by the universities. For it to attain so remarkable a status, two suspicions had to be overcome: that of men of action "the speculative views of intellectuals who lack any experience of reality"; and that, even stronger, of men of learning about "intellectual adventurism which discredits science by going beyond the established facts".
de Jouvenel, Bertrand
The Art o Conjecture @. 179) f

Forecasting is very difficult, especially about the future.
Fiedler, Edgar R.
Across the Bwrd The Three Rs of Economic Forecasting-Irrational, Irrelevant and Irreverent June 1977

106

FORECAST

107

He who lives by the crystal ball soon leams to eat ground glass. Fiedler, Edgar R.
The Three Rs of Economic Forecasting-Irrational,

Across the Board Irrelevant and Irreverent June 1977

The moment you forecast you know you’re going to be wrong, you just don’t know when and in which direction. Fiedler, Edgar R.
The Three Rs of Economic Forecasting-Irrational,

Across the Board Irrelevant and Irreverent June 1977

The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers. Fiedler, Edgar R.
The Three Rs of Economic Forecasting-Irrational,

Across the Board Irrelevant and Irreverent June 1977

When you know absolutely nothing about the topic, make your forecast by asking a carefully selected probability sample of 300 others who don’t know the answer either. Fiedler, Edgar R.
The Three Rs of Economic Forecasting-Irrational,

Across the Board Irrelevant and Irreverent June 1977

If you have to forecast, forecast often. Fiedler, Edgar R.
The Three Rs of Economic Forecasting-Irrational,

Across the Board Irrelevant and Irreverent June 1977

I know of no way of judging the future but by the past. Henry, Patick
Speech at Second Virginia Convention, March 23, 1775

It appears to me a most excellent thing for the physician to cultivate Prognosis; for by foreseeing and foretelling, in the presence of the sick, the present, the past, and the future, and explaining to omissions which patient have been gudty of, he will be the more readily believed to be acquainted with the circumstances . . . Hippocrates T e Book of Prognostics h
1

108

STATISTICALLY SPEAKING

Nearly every inference we make with respect to any future event is more or less doubtful. If the circumstances are favorable, a forecast may be made with a greater degree of confidence than if the conditions are not so disposed. Mellor, J.W. Higher Mathematics for Students of Chemistry and Physics
Probability and Theory of Errors (p. 498)

We are making forecasts with bad numbers, but bad numbers are all we've got. Penjer, Michael The New York Times
September 1,1989

It is far better to foresee even without certainty than not to foresee at all. Poincark, Henri The Foundations of Science
Science and Hypothesis (p. 129)

Qui bene conjiciet, hunc vatem. [He who guesses right is the prophet.]
Proverb, Greek
A forecast is a forecast is a forecast. What if an important new trend developed? All the possibilities were considered three months ago, and it's too late to discuss any further changes in this year's projections. Strong, Lydia Management Review
Sales Forecasting: Problems and Prospects September 1956

He's fed in enough data for a dozen forecasts-let the electronic brains do the rest. While the THINK machines grind out prophecies, he can relax and contemplate the cosmos. Strong, Lydia Management Review
Sales Forecasting: Problems and Prospects September 1956

Hs forecasts could have been presented at the deadline date-but he's i held it up six weeks waiting for information which will clear up one "crucial" point-crucial only to him. Strong, Lydia Management Review
Sales Forecasting: Problems and Prospects September 1956

FORECAST

109

Will he ever be able to correlate all these facts into one forecast that makes sense? What does it matter? He’s just obtained a new and exclusive figure on discretionary consumer income in Hudson N.Y.-and he’s sublimely happy. Strong, Lydia
Management Rm’ew Sales Forecasting: Problems and Prospects September 1956

Two plus two is four? Not to this forecaster. He knows the sales manager (who hired him) wants a different answer. Strong, Lydia
Management Review Sales Forecasting: Problems and Prospects September 1956

The charts rustle as the wind murmurs through the sacred grove. The high priest interprets the prophecy to the waiting supplicant. Business will improve, he says . . . unless it takes a tum for the worse. Strong, Lydia
Management Review Sales Forecasting: Problems and Prospects September 1956

Why fool around with market research? Why try to correlate economic indicators? The correct prediction will strike suddenly-like a bolt from the blue. Strong, Lydia
Management Review Sales Forecasting: Problems and Prospects September 1956

“You’ve got a tough job ahead of you,’’ the manager told the new employee in the research department. “Our president respected the guy you’re replacing and had great faith in his forecasting abilities.” “Was he a statistician?” the employee asked.
”In a way. He used to hang around the lunchroom and read coffee grounds.”

Thomsett, Michael C. The Little Black Book of Business Statistics (p. 140)

Voltaire The Portable Voltaire Philosophical Dictionary Concatenation of Events Men have always valued the ability to predict future events. 2) . Walker.110 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING It is said that the present is pregnant with the future. for those who can predict events can guard against them. Marshall The Nature of Scientific Thought (p.

Yet it presents a curious spectacle replete with contradictions. ’Pitch-and-toss’ is too dull: all must bet. 336) In moderation. Edward Newman. Pompidou. Bookies stand about and meet men as they go to and from their work. ‘Choose it.‘ And actually no one takes it. The most pleasant is with women. Georges Sunday Telegraph 26 May 1968 111 . 239) People don’t like to choose #1 in a lottery. women as well as men.’ a je ne sais 9uoi whispers. James Mathematics and the lmagination (p. Lichtenberg.000 thalers as any other. 46) There are three roads to ruin. Kasner. ’There’s no example of such little numbers being listed before great winnings. Georg Lichtenberg: Aphorisms 6 Letters Aphorisms (p. Charles Charles Booth’s London (p. the quickest is with gambling. ‘It has as good a chance of winning the 12. women.’ Reason cries loudly.GAMBLING Gambling is increasing beyond what you could imagine. Booth. the great laboratories and respectable insurance palaces stand as monuments to a science originally born of the dice cup. but the surest is with technicians. While indulgence in its pleasures has always lain beyond the pale of fear of Hell’s fires. gambling and technicians.’ ’In Heaven’s name don’t choose it. gambling possesses undeniable virtues.

As gamblers believed mystically i their luck so n Gronevelt believed in percentages. but he knew. Mario Fools Die: A Novel Chapter 17 (pp. 1 6 0) - . Puzo. Gronevelt would never accept that explanation. Gronevelt believed that the house could not lose over the long run. that the laws of percentage were not subject to chance.112 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING He felt the table was having a run of bad luck. 187-8) How could one haMlspex look another i the face without laughing? n Ciaetro (See p.

27) 113 . . Advertisement for Doan’s Backache Kidney Pills One picture is worth ten thousand words. 121) You can draw a lot of curves through three graph points. but are valuable in suggesting such tests. Michael The Terminal Man Chapter 5 (p. Michael The Terminal Man Chapter 5 (p. the width of the line should be inversely proportional to the precision of the data. they are therefore no substitutes for such critical tests as may be applied to the data.” Gerhard said. but bring outstanding features readily to the eye. Advertisement for Royal Baking Powder Printers Ink Volume 138. cross-hatching for a graph appeared and the points began to blink o n .lO March 1927 When graphing a function. Crichton. Fisher. You can extrapolate it a lot of ways. 155) The preliminary examination of most data is facilitated by the use of diagrams. A-3) ”I’ll give you a graphic display. Diagrams prove nothing. Crichton. After a moment. wiping the screen. Marvin J.GRAPHICS Every picture tells a story. Statistical Methods For Research Workers (p. He punched buttons. Albinak. Sir Ronald A. Quoted i Paul Dickson’s n The Official Explanations (p. . and in explaining the conclusions founded upon them.

M. William The Complete Works o William Shakespeare f The Taming of the Shrew Introduction. . yet a few seem to apprehend there may possibly be some deception in it. Andrew H. Judea Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems (p. local and national conventions. In Japan.1933 (p. so frank. . of which they are not aware. 51 . Will The Will Rogers Book June 25. New York Times Data-Loving Japanese Rejoice on Statistics Day October 26.114 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING . Facts from Figures The Magic Lantem Technique (p. the task of capturing informational dependencies by graphs is not at all trivial. We leam through the eye and not the noggin. 81) As to the propriety and justness of representing sums of money. You must illustrate it. award ceremonies and nationwide statistical collection and graphdrawing contests.J. and time.l. by parts of space. A-1 It pays to keep wide awake in studying any graph. 27) Despite the prevailing use of graphs as metaphors for communicating and reasoning about dependencies. The thing looks so simple. 121) Dost thou love pictures? Shakespeare. statistics are the subject of holidays. 1977. Pearl. Chinese You must never tell a thing. tho' very readily agreed to by most men. and so appealing that the careless are easily fooled. Rogers. Proverb. Malcolm. Moroney. no nation ranks higher in its collective passion for statistics. . Scene 2. Playfair. . William The Commercial and Political Atlas A picture is worth more than ten thousand words.

just like statistical calculations. from a broad overview to the fine structure 0 serve a reasonable clear purpose: description. exploration. Write out explanations of the data on the graphic itself. precision. Graphical displays should show the data induce the viewer to t i k about the substance rather than about the hn methodology. Tufte. 13) Of course statistical graphics. Clear. In time-series displays of money. The Visual Dispky of Quantitative Information (p. Show data variations. Label important events in the data. An ill-specified or preposterous model or a puny data set cannot be rescued by a graphic (or by calculation). tabulation. should be directly proportional to the numerical quantities represented. 0 0 The Visual Display of Quantitative Information (p. 77) Excellence in statistical graphics consists of complex ideas communicated with clarity. graphic design.GRAPHICS 115 Graphical integrity is more likely to result if these six principles are followed: The representation of numbers. and efficiency. or decoration 0 be closely integrated with the statistical and verbal descriptions of a data set. Tufte. deflated and standardized units of monetary measurements are nearly always better than nominal units. not design variations. The Visual Display of Quantitative Information (p. the technology of graphic production. as physically measured on the surface of the graphic itself. Edward R. The number of information-carrying (variable) dimensions depicted should not exceed the number of dimensions in the data. no matter how clever or fancy. Graphics must not quote data out of context. Tufte. or something else 0 avoid distorting what the data have to say 0 present many numbers in a small space 0 make large data sets coherent 0 encourage the eye to compare different pieces of data 0 reveal the data at several levels of detail. A silly theory means a silly graphic. 15) . Edward R. detailed. and thorough labeling should be used to defeat graphical distortion and ambiguity. Edward R. are only as good as what goes into them.

Ivan Fathers and Sons Chapter 16 Every picture tells a story. 113) .(See p. Turgenev.116 S TATlS TlCAL LY SPEAKING A sketch tells me as much in a glance as a dozen pages of print. Advertisement for Doan’s Backache Kidney Pills .

Carroll. Barry. hypothetical questions get hypothetical answers.” said the Cat. . 164) The shrewd guess.” said the Cat. is an inference based on knowledge which is insufficient to prove its high probability. 134) Hypothesis. [A pretty hypothesis which explains many things. which way I ought to go from here?” ”That depends a good deal on where you want to get to. Frederick The Scientific Habit of Thought The Elements of Theory (p. Herbert Speech in House of Commons March 29. the fertile hypothesis.] Asquith. Jerome Seymour The Process o Education (p. Joan Daybreak What Would You Do If (p. please. Lewis The Complete Works of h i s Carroll Pig and Pepper 117 .1917 . Bruner.HYPOTHESES Jolie hypothese elle explique tant de choses. ”I don’t much care where-. ’Then it doesn’t matter which way you go. Baez. 14) f ”Would you tell me. however.’ said Alice. the courageous leap to a tentative conclusion-these are the most valuable coin of the thinker at work. .

Moms R. Cohen. or more useful than. a truer one for which acceptable evidence is not yet at hand. 7) . we cannot determine what is relevant and what is irrelevant. Evans. in their minds. Fabing. at the right stage of science. Bergen The Natural History of Nonsense A Tale of a Tub Many confuse hypothesis and theory. Dampier-Whetham. I have no doubt that certain of the savants have taken grave offense and think it wrong to raise any disturbance among liberal disciplines which have had the right set-up for a long time now. and observation conforms to hypothesis. into fact. . 39) An honorable man will not be bullied by a hypothesis. Ray Fischerisms (p. William Science and the Human Mind Science in the Ancient World (p. . . David Social Astonishments Believing in Books A false hypothesis. if it serve as a guide for further enquiry. Copemicus. no genuine progress in scientific insight through the Baconian method of accumulating empirical facts without hypotheses or anticipation of nature. may. 148) Since the newness of the hypotheses of this work-which sets the earth in motion and puts an immovable sun at the center of the universehas already received a great deal of publicity. Harold Mar. " There is . Evans.118 STATISTICALLY S P E A K . the correct one. An hypothesis is a possible explanation. Nicolaus On the Revolutions of the Heavenly Spheres Introduction But suspicion is a thing very few people can entertain without letting the hypothesis turn. A Preface to Logic (p. Cort. . Bergen The Natural History o Nonsense f A Tale of a Tub We see what we want to see. be as useful as. Without some guiding idea we do not know what facts to gather . a theory.

S. Reason and Romanticism Book Two Chapter I (p. we may be permitted. until it either fails or becomes confirmed. Thomas H. Collected Essays Biogenesis and Abiogenesis This is called the inductive method. Holmes. Sir Isaac Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy Book 111. then our hypothesis may gradually become a solution. established itself by a cumulative process. Konrad O n Aggression (p. slaying of a beautiful hypothesis by Huxley. Freud. or. . 126) The great tragedy of Science-the an ugly fact.HYPOTHESES 119 In the complete absence of any theory of the instincts which would help us to find our bearings. Lewis. if you make the same guess often enough it ceases to be a guess and becomes a Scientific Fact. it is incumbent upon us. Rule I . . Sherlock in Arthur Conan Doyle’s The Complete Sherlock Holmes The Adventure of Wisteria Lodge . Sigmund O n Narcissism If the fresh facts which come to our knowledge all fit themselves into the scheme. Man’s Place in Nature I1 (p. . Newton. It keeps him young. C. 37) It is a good morning exercise for a research scientist to discard a pet hypothesis every day before breakfast. my dear young friend. Lorenz. . or rather. Huxley. in the first place to work out any hypothesis to its logical conclusion. The Pilgrim’s Regress: A n Allegorical Apology for Christianity. it is the first duty of a hypothesis to be intelligible . to use popular language. 12) We are to admit no more causes of natural things than such as are both true and sufficient to explain their appearances. Hypothesis. Thomas H.

that it assimilates every thing to itself. and. and when we have not yet been able to draw an absurdity either from its negation or from its affirmation. Chapter 19 . Newton. Blaise Scient@ Treatises Concerning the Vacuum It is the nature of an hypothesis. Pascal. Rule IV I frame no hypotheses. Sir Isaac Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy Book 111. the hypothesis remains doubtful. whether metaphysical or physical. from the first moment of your begetting it. or understand. by which they may either be made more accurate. and then the hypothesis is considered false. Steme. that is enough to make certain its falsity. So that to establish the truth of an hypothesis it is not enough that all the phenomena should follow from it. or liable to exceptions. Newton. it generally grows stronger by every thing you see. Sir Isaac Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy Book 111. General Scholium For sometimes an obvious absurdity follows from its negation. when once a man has conceived it. This is of great use. for whatever is not deduced from the phenomena is to be called an hypothesis.120 STATlSTlCAL LY SPEAKING In experimental philosophy we are to look upon propositions inferred by general induction from phenomena as accurately or very nearly true. till such time as other phenomena occur. as proper nourishment. and hypotheses. have no place in experimental philosophy. read. and then the hypothesis is true and certain. hear. or an obvious absurdity follows from its affirmation. whether of occult qualities or mechanical. notwithstanding any contrary hypotheses that may be imagined. whereas if there follows from it something opposed to a single phenomenon. Laurence Tristram Shandy Book 2.

164) f [Hypothesis] Something murdered by facts. The Little Black Book o Business Statistics (p. "At first." "How did you do?" the friend asked. "It was tough." an exhausted manager told a friend." Thomsett. but they wouldn't accept that explanation. So then I said that our hypothesis had not included the entire scope of probabilities. Michael C.HYPOTHESES 121 "I just finished up in the budget review meeting. and the outcome fell outside of the range we had used. I tried to tell them we simply made a mistake. unknown . W were way off on our projections. and I e had to explain why." "And?" "They loved it.

as if they were impossible. Adam. Emile Probabilities and Life Introduction (pp.” said the Queen. 2-3) Alice laughed. Borel. or at least we must act. Why. in all circumstances. there being no outside to import things in from. Carroll. Aristotle The Poets Chapter XXIV Events with a suficiently small probability never occur.’I The Complete Works of Lewis Carroll Through the Looking Glass Wool and Water 122 . “There’s no use trying. Lewis .IMPOSSIBLE It is impossible to import things into an infinite area. “When I was your age. 101) What is convincing though impossible should always be prefered to what is possible and unconvincing. sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast . .” she said “one ca’n’t believe impossible things. Douglas The Original Hitchhiker Radio Scripts Fit the Fifth (p. I always did it for half-an-hour a day.” ”I daresay you havn’t had much practice.

I’ll have her: and if it be a match. Juster. Part I1 . any kind of accurate foresight is impossible. The Lost Worlds of 2001 Chapter 34 I’ll tell you in two words-im-possible. Clarke. 112) The only way of finding the limits of the possible is by going beyond them into the impossible. 296) . Sheynin. Tertullian De Came Christi Chapter V. Leon Forum Philosophicum Look Back and Struggle Volume 1. February 1. Chestov. Archive for History of Exact Science (p. Goldwyn. 247) Well. O.B. Arthur C. 101) The fact is certain because it is impossible. Aldous Time Must Have a Stop (p.IMPOSSIBLE 123 A round square or a wooden iron is an absurdity and consequently an impossibility . Huxley.1974 Except under controlled conditions. Samuel New York Times Obituary. so many things are possible just as long as you don’t know they’re impossible. Scene 2. . 1930 (p. . or in circumstances where it is possible to ignore individuals and consider only large numbers and the law of averages. Shakespeare. . 379 A likely impossibility is always preferable to an unconvincing possibility. Number 1. Norton The Phantom Tollbooth (p. William The Complete Works of William Shakespeare The Two Gentlemen of Verona Act 111. . 1. as nothing is impossible-.

James Lanterns and Lances The Last Clock Man can believe the impossible. Wilde.124 STATISTICALLY SPEAKlNG All things. as we know. Thurber. are impossible in this most impossible of all impossible worlds. Oscar Epigrams: Phrases and Philosophiesfir the Use of the Young Sebastian Melmoth . but man can never believe the improbable.

18. Box. In addition to those functions studied there are an infinity of others. adored by the Platonists. therefore.INFINITE The ignorant suppose that infinite number of drawings require an infinite amount of time. 29) I had expressed my wish to have a thermometer o probability. Augustus Budget o Paradoxes f Volume I1 James Smith Once More (p.1956 (p. This infinitude harmonizes in an admirable manner with the sinuous numbers of Chance and of the Celestial Archetype of the Lottery. that the authors have confined their attention to the relatively simple problem of determining the approximate distribution of arbitrary criteria and have failed to produce any sort of justification for the tests they propose. de Morgan. in reality it is quite enough that time is infinitely subdivisible. and unless some principle of selection is introduced we have nothing to look forward to but an infinity of test criteria and an infinity of papers in which they are described. G.P. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Discussion Series B. as is the case in the famous parable of the Tortoise and the Hare. with f impossibility at one end. as 2 plus 2 makes 5. Borges. and necessity at the other as 2 plus 2 make 4.E. 247) 125 . Jorge Luis Ficciones The Babylon Lottery It is a pity.

197) We give them an excellent survey of the methods and techniques of thinking. but. psychology.F. 13) Thus. W. producing doubt. scientific method. the scientist must recognize the statistical aspect of much of his knowledge. unduly hesitating to accept it as true if the probability is reasonably high. taken from logic. therefore. Man and Society (p. Science.KNOWLEDGE Incomplete knowledge must be considered as perfectly normal in probability theory. 37) I am convinced that it is impossible to expound the methods of induction in a sound manner. 111) 126 . to content ourselves with partial knowledge. We have. statistics. we might even say that. which is clearly beyond our capacities. Robert B. not. Walden Two (p. and we would know the outcome with certainty.S. if we knew all the circumstances of the phenomena. and mathematics. Emile Probability and Certainty Chapter I (p. there would be no place for probability.-knowledge mingled with ignorance. Fischer. on the other hand. Jevons. The Principles of Science Chapter 10 (p. maintaining an alertness to the possibility that what may for good appear to be highly improbable may indeed occur or be true. Skinner. on the one hand. Perfect knowledge alone can give certainty. without resting them on the theory of Probability. Borel. B. and in nature perfect knowledge would be infinite knowledge.

you know. Arthur Murphy‘s Law The Nonreciprocal Laws of Expectation (p. You see? It‘s not a question of training. Boulle. D. 23) [in quantum mechanics] we have the paradoxical situation that observable events obey laws of chance. is always true in general and false in particular. it’s dead certain they won’t get off scot free. Bloch. Chapter 8 (p. according to a great mathematician’s expression. 67) 127 . 103) f . The third time. Claude A n Introduction to the Study o Experimental Medicine (p. M x a Natural Philosophy o Cause and Chance (p. Bernard. a law which. if they do only one jump. Positive expectations yield negative results. 138) f Negative expectations yield negative results. Two jumps it’s eighty percent. but that the probability for these events itself spreads according to laws which are still in all essential features causal laws. .LAWS But physicians have nothing to do with what is called the l w o large a f numbers. there’s a fifty percent chance of an injury. Pierre The Bridge over the River Kwai Part Two. the laws of chance are just as necessary as the causal laws themselves. 21) Indeed. Causality and Chance in Modern Physics (p. but the law of averages. Bohm. . Born.

A-5) . 2271) I believe neither in chance nor in miracle. de Jouvenel. but only in phenomena regulated by laws. economic. William Edwards Statistical Adjustment o Data (p. Dickson. the numbers and the things are not the same. that the Law of Averages had never been incorporated into the body of federal jurisprudence. as the simplest way of assuring it. Coates. people were required to be average. not evidence of divine guidance. both by Constitutional amendment and by a law-the HillsSlooper Act-implementing it. and though the upholders of States’ Rights rebelled violently. so many of the laws remain yet to be discovered that most action must be taken on the basis of knowledge of the subject matter in related fields. The World of Mathematics Volume 3 The Law (p. to everyone’s dismay. Robert M. Deming. Paul The Oficial Rules (p. (5) The product of an arithmetical computation is the answer to an equation. (3) Skill in manipulating numbers is a talent. 11) f Ashley-Perry Statistical Axioms (1)Numbers are tools. they were divided alphabetically and the permissible activities catalogued accordingly. it is not the solution to a problem. (2) Numbers are symbols for things. and industrial planning could be based on scientific laws. (4) Like other occult techniques of divination. it had been discovered. According to the Act. Bertrand Quoted in Ludwig Buchner‘s Force and Matter (p.128 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING In the course of the committee’s investigations. but actually. and. (6) Arithmetical proofs of theorems that do not have arithmetical bases prove nothing. the statistical method has a private jargon deliberately contrived to obscure its methods from nonpractitioners. the oversight was at once corrected. not rules. 80) It would be splendid if all action required in social.

Moustache hairs are shed very freely. It was totally opposed to the laws of probability. in each box. Austin A Certain Dr. the modems should at least respect it as the most universal law of nature. if they had known of the law of errors. one. says Mr.or more hairs in any one box would not have been surprising. Albert Sidelights on Relativity Geometry and Experience (p. Freeman. or speculative prejudice. political. 470) It will. R. Froude. they do not refer to reality. Edgeworth. be clearly understood that the numbers of men in the several classes in my table depend on no uncertain hypothesis. Thorndyke Thomdyke COM&S the Links Superstition. A man who was in the habit of pulling or stroking his moustache might dislodge two or three at once. if . I trust. heroworship. Einstein. One or other of these has tended from the beginning to give us distorted pictures. Francis Ysidro ] o u m l o the Royal Statistical Society f On the Representation of Statistics by Mathematical Formula (concluded) Volume XLII. and usually one only. two. but they do not drop out at regular intervals. Galton. One. they are not certain. 28) But when I came to reflect on the facts observed. and no complete box in which there was none. ignorance of the laws of probability. James Anthony Short Studies on Great Subjects Scientific Method Applied to History (p. religious. and as far as they are certain. 1899 (p. The law would have been personified by the Greeks and deified. 552) As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality. The surprising thing was the regularity with which these hairs occurred. Galton. Francis Hereditary Genius According to Their Natural Gift (p. I was struck by their singularity. They are determined by the assured law of deviations from the average. would have personified and deified it. 30) I know of scarcely anything so apt to impress the imagination as the wonderful form of cosmic order expressed by the “Law of Frequency of Error”.LAWS 129 The Greeks.

the success of prediction . . accurately adapted to fit it. . Edward Gibbon's Autobiography (p. . adds credibility to the beliefs which led to it. as it is sorted in place. 124) "Law" means a rule which we have always found to hold good. . Galton. It reigns with serenity. a preordained niche. Gibbon. Physics Today Complete Structure from Simple Systems March 1991 (p. but instead arises from the many-times repeated application of quite simple laws. The tops of the marshalled now form a flowing curve of invariable proportions. . Abraham The Conduct o Inquiry f Chapter I X . the more perfect is its sway. and in complete effacement amidst the wildest confusion. Kaplan. Section 40 (p. Leo P. 346) Dieselbe Ordnung waltet iiberall: Im wechselvollen Reigen der Gestime Gebietet das Gesetz nach Mass und Zahl. so true in general. . laws serve to explain events and theories to explain laws. 66) . but the laws of probability. an unsuspected and most beautiful form of regularity proves to have been latent all along. and a corresponding force to the explanations they provide. 9) . It is the supreme law of Unreason. and each element. and the greater the apparent anarchy. Francis Nuturul Inheritance Normal Variability (p. At any rate. Wie in des Menschen denkendm Gehime.130 STATISTICALLY SPEAKlNG they had known of it. Thomas H. Kadanoff. Whenever a large sample of chaotic elements are taken in hand and marshalled in the order of their magnitude. . The huger the mob. Huxley. Collected Essays On Descartes' "Discourse Touching the Method of U i g One's Reason sn Rightly and of Seeking Scientific Truth Volume I . . a good law allows us to predict new facts and a good theory new laws. finds. so fallacious in particular. all the richness of structure observed in the natural world is not a consequence of the complexity of physical law. as it were. . and which we expect always will hold good.

P-152) I feel like a fugitive from th’law o averages. constants aren’t. The law of probability gives to natural and human sciences-to human experience as a whole-the unity of life we seek. F. the recognition of which is the main pillar of inductive science. that the invariability of succession is found by observation to obtain between every fact in nature and some other fact which has preceded it. Agnes Education for a New Morality (p. Don Quoted in Paul Dickson’s The Official Rules (p. Bill (William Henry) Up Front Cartoon caption (p.LAWS [The same order rules everywhere.] 131 Krass. f Mauldin. Variables won’t. 103) Law of Probable Disposal: Whatever hits the fan will not be evenly distributed. Mill. Quoted in Ludwig Buchner’s Force and Matter (p. Richard Introduction to Bayes’ Essays . Price. the law of measure and number rules in the changeful hosts of the stars as it does in man’s thinking brain. . John Stuart System o Logic f Book 111. Logical Machine Advertisement Quoted in Paul Dickson’s The OfFcial Rules (p. Chapter V. Section 2 Osbom’s Law. . 39) W can never achieve absolute truth but we can live hopefully by a e system of calculated probabilities. to show what reason we have for believing that there are in the constitution of things fixed laws according to which events happen. Meyer. is but the familiar truth. 0-138) The purpose I mean is. 21) The Law of Causation. Osbom.

or none of the above. just as other laws are inferred from particular single occurrences. Charles E. indirectly. ideally are accurate laws about large groups. utl such time ni as it becomes advantageous to assume otherwise. and adhered to as absolute truth to be undeniably. maybe. universally. or statistical averages. material gain. Leo War and Peace Second Epilogue. are different in form from the common-sense rules which have exceptions: they are always. or personal comfort. that is. deduced. t i is hs the second law of thermodynamics. roughly speaking. it will always for the purpose of convenience. so that in regard to them the older physics is very nearly right. that the world is growing continuously more disorderly. induced. Russell. or circuitously proven. or scientifically guessed. implied. Rhodes. Quoted in Paul Dickson’s The Oficial Explanations (p. circumstance. and infinitely so. probability.132 STATlSTZCALLY SPEAKING When any principle. one supremely important law which is only statistical. Statistical laws are inferred from particular statistics. estimated. Russell. but this would be a mistake. proclaimed. either differential equations. or any combination of the above. when we have reason to think them accurate. at least in physics. Statistics. empirically. expediency. Large aggregates behave almost exactly as they were supposed to do before quantum theory was invented. Bertrand A. It might be thought that a statistical average is not very different from a rule with exceptions. however. 92) Only by reducing this element of free will to the infinitesimal. be unilaterally and unequivocally assumed. or result can in no way be directly. political advantage. not about individuals. The Scientific Outlook Scientific Metaphysics (p. inferred. Inferences. by regarding it as an infinitely small quantity. It states. and Theories (p. tenet. history will take the discovery of laws as its problem. derived. Tolstoy. immutably. Bertrand A. 191) I come now to the statistical part of physics. they differ from other laws only in being about groups. There is. The Analysis o Matter f Data. can we convince ourselves of the absolute inaccessibility of the causes. R-192) Scientific laws. happening. Chapter XI . Hypotheses. which is concemed with the study of large aggregates. and then instead of seeking causes. law.

Whitehead. Alfred North An Introduction to Mathematics Chapter 3 Laws are statements of observed facts. Whitehead. and thus even at the best the result. precisely as calculated. almost certainly it is not precisely accurate. unknown If the law states a precise result. unknown Twyman’s Law states that any figure that looks interesting or different is usually wrong. is not likely to occur. Alfred North Adventures o Ideas f Laws of Nature W o n VI1 . and not invent them.LAWS 133 We must discover the laws on which our profession rests.

George Theophrastus Such The Wasp Credited with the Honeycomb (p. Why. Ruben Mopworth Chapter Thirty-Four (p.LIKELIHOOD "I wonder how we can account for such parallelism in door design. 411) He was a strange boy to be sure. and some disgust might have been felt for a real author who made comparatively so shabby an appearance of likelihood. Peter Ruben. Eliot. 166) No doubt if it had been discovered who wrote the "Vestiges. banking on the Law of Probability to reduce the likelihood of another rock coming in that one again before it came in another. There was always some ground of probability and likelihood mingled with his absurd behaviour. or patched with cardboard. 64) Mopworth always took a seat at a window already cracked and taped. de Vries. "The likelihood of its occurring by chance is astronomically small. Michael Sphere The Door (p. That was the best of it." many an ingenious structure of probabilities would have been spoiled. 82) 134 ." Ted said. this door is the perfect size and shape for human beings!" Crichton. Charles The Work of Charles Dickens Martin Chuzzlewit Chapter XI (p. Dickens.

Malice in Blunderland Fuglemenship (p. ”Will we make a profit?” The manager of the research department answered. Harold Proceedings o the Royal Statistical Society f Probability and Scientific Method Series A. Volume 146.. Wright. in conformity with the established laws of probability. 103) There was not much likelihood now that a third encounter would take place. and the fact is that from that day to this I have never seen the young man again. The Little Black Book o Business Statistics (p. Raymond Exercises in Style Probabilist A meeting was called to review the result of a recent market sample for a new product.LIKE LIHOOD 135 I have no objection to the study of likelihood as such. “Yes.1934 A professor’s enthusiasm for teaching introductory courses varies inversely with the likelihood of his having to do it. Thomas L. Martin. Jefferys. Jim The Dallas Morning News September 9. Queneau. “Based on the specific assumptions applied to our test.” The president leaned over and whispered to his secretary.1969 . there is a reasonable likelihood that response will fall within our range of expectations.194) f The likelihood of a thing happening is inversely proportional to its desirability. ”What was the answer?” She whispered back.” Thomsett. The president started out by asking. Michael C. Jr.

ther lyth mesure. 1. William Cox. Isaac OfTime and Space and Other Things Part I1 Of Other Things (p. 143) One grain of wheat does not constitute a pile. What. . . although. then is the threshold number? Can we say that 325. . I woot. nor do two grains. 3) f 136 . we must remember that measures were made for man and not man for measures. 715 . in certain extreme cases. Gertrude Experimental Designs (p. Emile Probability and Certainty Chapter 8 (p. 336) It is important to realize that it is not the one measurement. but that 325. Asimov. Deming. Chaucer. On the other hand. 98) In every thing.647 grains of wheat do not form a pile. alone. nor three and so on.MEASUREMENT . but its relation to the rest of the sequence that is of interest.648 grains do? If it is impossible to fix a threshold number. . Geoffrey Troyfus and Crysyde Book ii. Borel. William Edwards Statistical Adjustment o Data (p. the words can have no meaning. Cochran. it will also be impossible to know what is meant by a pile of wheat. everybody will agree about them. polynomials are notoriously untrustworthy when extrapolated. everyone will agree that a hundred million grains of wheat do form a pile.

. 215) Proleptically. John Logic: The Theory of Inquiry Chapter XI (p. p. The principle. 205) Measurement has meaning only if we can transmit the information without ambiguity to others. W o n 25 (p. . it must be regarded as accidental. is a mark of respect for the ritual of scientific practice at the expense of its substance. 31) Who hath measured the waters in the hollow of his hand . If. 171) Measurement. as f Jevons [see The Principles o Science.” he explained. . ’How many times?’” . Dewey. not on that thing. Fox. above all on the skill and ingenuity which we can bring to bear on the process of measurement which our inquiry can put to use. and. Kaplan. Kaplan. on our knowledge of it. The most exact description or prediction that a scientist can make is still only approximate. “Let’s get it down to something we can count!” does not always formulate the best research strategy. Kaplan. . M x Hooke. Section 20 (p. 176) . Abraham The Conduct o Inquiry f Chapter V. ”NOmatter what I told him. Robert The Science o Science f A Standard Language (p.? The Bible Isaiah 40:12 One of the subjects of Kinsey’s study of sexual behavior in the human male afterwards complained bitterly of the injury to his masculine ego. Section 20 (p.MEASUREMENT 137 Insistence upon numerical measurement when it is not inherently required by the consequence to be effected. as sometimes happens. Abraham The Conduct o Inquiry f Chapter VI. Russell a Gorbuny. we have seen. always has an element of error in it. 4571 . ”he just looked me straight in the eye and asked. . remarks. but on how we have conceptualized it. it “should give rise to suspicion rather than to satisfaction”. Abraham The Conduct o Inquiry f Chapter V. I would say that whether we can measure something depends. . a perfect correspondence with observation does appear.

75) Crude measurement usually yields misleading. and all things would be of equal size. The Principles o Mathematics f Entry 164 Measure f o r Measure Shakespeare.56) f Measurement demands some one-one relations between the numbers and magnitudes in question-a relation which may be direct or indirect. Herbert Icon and Idea: The Function o Art in the Development of Human Consciousness f Chapter IV (p.T. as the reduction of the chaos of appearances to the precision of linear symbols. but as measure. Symmetry. Georg Lichtenberg: Aphorisms t Letters 3 Aphorisms (p. Bertrand A. important or trivial. if we should find a universal measure. I’m not interested. Lichtenberg. as we so often conceive it nowadays. 27) Coomb’s Law. Krutch. balance. Russell. Reynolds. Human Behavior Peter’s People August. Joseph Wood Human Nature and Human Condition Chapter 5 (p. Read. Analysis o Nominal Data (p. harmonic division. as an ideal of humanity. William Title of play . not. mated and mensurated intervals-such were its abstract characteristics. the miraculous elements would disappear. 78) We are ourselves the measure of the miraculous. H. If you can’t measure it. Peter. 9) Beauty had been bom. 1976 (p.138 STATISTICALLY S P E A K ” We are committed to the scientific method and measurement is the foundation of that method. Lawrence J. according to circumstances. even erroneous conclusions no matter how sophisticated a technique is used. hence we are prone to assume that whatever is measurable must be signhcant md that whatever cannot be measured may as well be disregarded.

This further and crucial method is that of ul measurement. Unknown If you don’t measure it. but you have scarcely. . . Wordsworth. Thompson. if lacking it. Spearman. . great as may be the potency of this [the experimental method]. . is to get you out of the crisis you are already in. . when you cannot express it in numbers. and two feet wide. in your thoughts.MEASUREMENT 139 Nay. but when you cannot measure it. Charles Psychology Down the Ages Volume I (p. you know something about it. Sophocles The Plays of Sophocles Trachiniae 1. and express it in numbers. there is yet another one so vital that. if these measures give any ground of confidence. we t i k that thy hn design is not amiss. any study is thought by many authorities not to be scientific in the f l sense of the word. 89) I often say that when you can measure what you are speaking about. it won’t happen. William (Lord Kelvin) Popular Lectures and Addresses (p. William Wordsworth Poetry and Prose The Thom iii (Early Reading) . 80) What the measurements will not do.587 . your knowledge is of a meager and unsatisfactory kind: it may be the beginning of knowledge. advanced to the stage of science whatever the matter might be. uko n nnw I’ve measured it from side to side: ‘Tis three feet long. or of the preceding methods.

Navidi. Samuel 11th R. A model has a third possibility: it may be right. Kaplan.A. Section 30 (p. D. 258) The purpose of models is not to fit the data but to sharpen the questions. W. today. In such circumstances. . 1986 (p. Abraham The Conduct o Inquiry f Chapter VII. Eigen. Greedman. the inferences may not be reliable either. . the same root. This limitation is often ignored by applied workers who fail to idenbfy crucial assumptions or subject them to any kind of empirical testing. However statistical differences from data depend on assumptions about the process which generated these data. using statistical procedures may only compound the uncertainty . indeed.C. but irrelevant. 618) Models are often used to decide issues in situations marked by uncertainty. Statistical modeling seems likely to increase the stock of things you think you know that ain’t so. Manfred The Physicist’s Conception of Nature edited by JagdishMehra (p. If the assumptions do not hold.A. Karlin. Fisher Memorial Lectures Royal Society 20 April 1983 140 . Number 1. Statistical Science Regression Models for Adjusting the 1980 Census Volume 1. 3) The words “model” and “mode” have. model building is science h la mode.MODELS A theory has only the altemative of being right or wrong.

they mainly make models. they hardly even try to interpret. Knowledge must come through action. 223) .MODELS 141 Nay. thou canst have no test which is not fanciful. Unknown (Statistician) A figure head Bvan Bsar . Sophocles The Plays of Sophocles Trachiniae 1. 589 The sciences do not try to explain.(See p. save by t i l ra.

Chapter I1 Consider that everything which happens.1960 (p. Claude A n lntmduction to the Study of Experimental Medicine (p. Aurelius.” we mean that observation is the mind’s support in reasoning. then. while those whom devotion to abstract discussions has rendered unobservant of the facts are too ready to dogmatize on the basis of a few observations. . F. that we make attempts and trials in order to gain facts from which the mind. Technometrics Rejection of Outliers Volume 2. may draw knowledge or instruction. and if thou observest carefully. when we say ”making experiments or making observations. through reasoning. ”relying on observation and gaining experience. when we say. the fruit of exact reasoning applied to the interpretation of facts.Section 10 Speaking concretely.OBSERVATIONS No observations are absolutely trustworthy. and experience the mind’s support in deciding. . Speaking in the abstract. experiment is what teaches about facts and gives experience in relation to anything. Bernard. 11) 142 . Aristotle O n Generation and Corruption Book I. 124) . happens justly. or still better. thou wilt find it to be so. Marcus The Meditations o the Emperor Antonius Marcus Aurelius f Book IV. is what shows facts. Anscombe.” we mean that we devote ourselves to investigation and to research. Observation.J.

Number 4 November 1966 (p. he is a good observer. Yogi Quoted in Dick Schaap and Mort Gerberg’s Joy in Mudville: The Big Book o Baseball Humor f Reflections (p.OBSERVATIONS You can observe a lot by just watching. we are creatures that look before and after: the more surprising that we do not look round a little. Shakespeare says. 629) . hs Dickens. Box. Blake. Technometrics Use and Abuse of Regression Volume 8. William The Complete Writings o William Blake f The Marriage of Heaven and Hell Proverbs of Hell 18 . but he has no power of reasoning! Darwin. 82) For no one is so weak in mind that he does not perceive that while he is seated he is in some way different from what he is when he is standing on his feet. To find out what happens to a system when you interfere with it you have to interfere with it (not just passively observe it). RenQ Rules for the Direction of the Mind Rule XI1 The bearing of t i observation lays in the application on it. Charles The Life and Letters of Charles Darwin Volume I Mental Qualities (p. Thomas Sartor Resartus Book I. 185) A fool sees not the same tree that a wise man sees. Chapter 1 Oh.E. Carlyle. G. 143 Bema. Descartes.P. Charles The Work o Charles Dickens f Dombey and Son Chapter 23 . and see what is passing under our very eyes.

Ray Fischerisms (p. customs. 20) Ettore’s Observation: The Other Line moves faster. 8) . The Physical Principles of the Quantum Theory Introductory ( p . in Kant’s epigram. Ettore. as some say. . ”Concepts without precepts are empty”. but you do not observe. Harold Mar. Holmes. 160) This assumption is not permissible in atomic physics.. supermarket. It is also the process of relating our observations to theory. of ”operationalizing our concepts”. Sherlock in Arthur Conan Doyle’s The Complete Sherlock Holmes A Scandal in Bohemia . The Other Line-the one you were in originally-will then move faster.144 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING A man should look for what is. W. August 1974 You must acquire the ability to describe your observations and your experience in such language that whoever observes or experiences similarly will be forced to the same conclusion. and not for what he thinks should be . Albert Quoted in Peter Michelmore’s Einstein (p. This applies to all lines-bank. and so on. The distinction is clear. tollbooth. . ”Precepts without concepts are blind”. to finish the epigram. Our creations in the world of possibility must be fitted in the world of probability. Fabing. And don’t try to change lines. Greer. Number 1491. 3) You see. Einstein. Heisenberg. because of the discontinuous changes characteristic of atomic processes. the link between observation and formulation is one of the most difficult and crucial in the scientific enterprise. Scott The Logic of Social Inquiry (p. the interaction between observer and object causes uncontrollable and large changes in the system being observed. Barbara Harper’s Magazine Volume 249.. It is the process of interpreting our theory or.

O’Neil. The important thing to know is when one is on the more solid ground of observation and when one is on the ice. Mary The Poems of M a y Howitt The Spider and the Fly Seeing many things.S. Contemporay Physics Quasi-stellar Radio Sources Volume 8. it may properly be asked whether science can be undertaken without taking the risk of skating on the possibly t i ice hn of supposition. 154) . but thou observest not . The Bible Isaiah 42:20 I do love to note and to observe. Sherlock in Arthur Conan Doyle’s The Complete Sherlock Holmes A Case of Identity The way into my parlor is up a winding stair. in effect. Arthur Poems The Indifferent Mariner It urges the scientist. And most when the wind’s from the no’th’ard. However. but concentrate yourself upon details. Ben Volpone Act 11. Longair. Fact and Theory Chapter 8 (p. And I have many curious things to show when you are there . not to take risks incurred in moving far from the facts. For what’s the use 0’being bothered? I drink a little more when the wind’s offshore.0B SERVATIONS 145 Never trust impressions. the implications of the observations are far from clear. my boy. Holmes... Macy. Scene 1 Although by now a large amount of observational material is available. . Howitt. . W. Jonson. 1967 But I keep no log of my daily grog.M. M.

nothing. how stupid can he get. [No answer is also an answer. Cree muy poco. I. One day when I arrived at the field an old farmer was standing at the gate. I went and I counted the cattle-there were always thirty-two-and then I went back to the bailiff. after all. 36) Keine Antwort ist auch eine Antwort.” I went back.] Proverb. or so it seems.] Proverb. 127) To observations which ourselves we make. what do you do here every morning?” I said. The bailiff was very angry.146 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING . It was during the war and I was a farm laborer and my il task was before breakfast to go to yonder h l and to a field there and count the cattle. Realism and the Aim of Science (p. to observe is not enough. believe very little. there were only thirty-one. Of what you are told. He said. and he said. I thought to myself. De lo que te cuenten.” And we went together and we searched the place and indeed. sir. We must use our observations. I counted and counted again. 1. touched my cap. . and on the way back I thought. “Thnty-two. 11 Some scientists find. and said. Spanish I will tell you a moment in my life when I almost missed learning something. We grow more partial for th’ observer’s sake. “Have your breakfast and then we‘ll go up there together. that they get their best ideas when smoking. “Young man. Karl R. Thus there is no reason why I should not admit that some may get their ideas by observing or by repeating observations. I a a professional m statistician. . [Of what you see. One day I hs went back.” and went and had my breakfast. Popper. Well. Pope. nuda.” He shook his head and said. Poincar4. under a bush. t i is only a country yokel. Why . I reported thutytwo. and to do that we must generalize. was a dead beast. ”Nothing much. I just count the cattle. “If you count them every day they won’t flourish. German De lo 9ue veas. others by drinking coffee or whiskey. Henri The Foundations of Science Science and Hypothesis (p. Alexander The Complete Poetical Works of POPE Moral Essays Epis.

Alfred N r h A n Introduction to Mathematics (p. Shakespeare. ”Well. William The Complete Works o William Shakespeare f As You Like It Act 11. 1. ’ igone. . . ’tis there. E. Dr. When we differ. 38 That was excellently observ’d. 145) You will see something new. Jonathan Satires and Personal Writings Thoughts on Various Subjects ‘lis here. I don’t know how many I saw but one looks mimsey. observations. . Study the sheen on his coat.OBSERVATIONS 147 have I been counting them all the time? I haven’t prevented this beast dying. . Seuss.” Schumacher. .F. . 1) . Prince of Denmark Act 111. Swift. William The Complete Works o William Shakespeare f Hamlet. . where his Opinion agrees with mine. there I pronounce him to be mistaken. Look him in the eye. The Cat in the Hat (p. And I call them Thing One and Thing Two. 1. 33) The observed of all observers . say I. . They won’t flourish if you don’t look and watch the quality of each individual beast. he hath strange places cram”d with Shakespeare. Two things. and in his brain. Scene 1. Then I might have gone back and said. T ot Whitehead. Perhaps that’s what the farmer meant. . Good Work Education for Good Work (p. 162 . when I read a Passage in an Author. Scene 7.

Himself all-wise. 251-2) The order is rapidly fading And the first one now will later be last. Bob “The Times They Are A-Changin‘ ” If you take a pack of cards as it comes from the maker and shuffle it for a few minutes. the introduction of a random element in place of the arrangement. we shall be led. nor indeed did they make compact what movements each should start. Sir Arthur Stanley The Nature o the Physical World ( p . those Irregularities will bear no proportion to the recurrency of that Order which naturally results from ORIGINAL DESIGN . . Abraham The Doctrine of Chances ( p p . all trace of the original systematic order disappears. . all-powerful and good. Dylan. de Moivre.ORDER . still the Odds will be infinitely great. namely. Eddington. but because many of them shifting in many ways throughout the world are harried and 148 . altho’ Chance produces Irregularities. 63) f For in very truth. if we blind not ourselves l with metaphysical dust. must a l be from without . The order will never come back however long you shuffle. Something has been done which cannot be undone. by a short obvious way. as well as the original Design and Purpose of their Establishment. such Laws. that in the process of Time. . to the acknowledgment of the great MAKER and GOVERNOUR of all. . not by design did the first-beginnings of things place themselves each in their order with foreseeing mind. . .

by trying movements and unions of every kind. at last they fall into such dispositions as those. 49 No answer i also an answer. Lucretius Lucretitrs On the Nature of Things Book I. whereby our world of things is created and holds together.1. 146) - . 1020 Order is heaven's first law. Pope.ORDER 149 buffeted by blows from limitless time. Alexander The Complete Poetical Works o POPE f An Essay on Man Epistle IV. s Oennaa Proverb (See p.

which differ so much from the others as to indicate some abnormal source of error not contemplated in the theoretical discussions.OUTLIERS The fact that something is far-fetched is no reason why it should not be true.J. it cannot be as far-fetched as the fact that something exists. 432) In almost every true series of observations. some are found. shortly after 7 AM on the moming of December 7 1941. the officer in charge of a Hawaiian radar station ignored data solely because it seemed so incredible. Mulkay’s Astronomy Transformed (p. to perplex and mislead the inquirer. 1) I don’t see the logic of rejecting data just because they seem incredible. Benjamin The Astronomical Journal (p. Fred Quoted in D. 160) The folly of rejecting an extreme observation was demonstrated when . Hoyle. in the present state of science. Edge and M.O. Peirce. Celia The Decline and Fall of Science Aphorisms (p. Green. and the introduction of which into the investigations can only serve. Unknown 150 .

Michael R. sniffing? Davies. we have the figures.Wednesday (p. Michael The Terminal Man Chapter 6 (p. Robertson The D ay o Samuel Marchbanks i f Winter. 255) My eye was caught this morning by a statement in the paper that “76 percent of adults have bad breath”. They were about plus or minus two minutes for ninety-nine percent. Michael Rising Sun Second Day (p. Quoted in Paul Dickson’s The OfFcial Explanations (p. Trust us on this. 8 9 ) Ninety per cent of everything is crap Bloch. How are these conclusions reached? Do investigators scamper about the streets.” Crichton. “But I don’t know any more.” Gerhard said. I am always puzzled by such dogmatic observations. 157) John. Arthur Murphy’s Law Sturgeon’s Law ”I did. Crichton. Barnes. We‘ve passed the confidence limits already. We are telling you with ninety-five percent confidence intervals how the people feel.PERCENTAGES There’s a 50 percent chance of anything-ither it happens or it doesn’t. 17) 151 . Section IV.

But when we think of one baby bom in a single minute of time. Big Science (p. and so on. 89) It’s a little like the tale of the roadside merchant who was asked to explain how he could sell rabbit sandwiches so cheap. and I would say.P-175) Later that evening we were watching the news. We can only say that f there is a 20 percent probability o its being bom in London.136) When the weather predicts 30 percent chance o rain. and so on. James Hopwood Physics and Philosophy Chapter V (p. He would say there was a 60 percent chance of a Soviet strike on China for example.114) When half a million babies are bom in England in a year. Parry. H. Henry? Couldn’t it be 65 percent or 58 percent?” Haldeman. rain is twice as f likely as when 60 percent chance is predicted.” Huff. ”Well” he explained. and f a 50 percent chance for Sunday. 2 percent in Manchester. we cannot say that 20 percent of it was bom in London. one rabbit.152 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING Using any reasonable definition of a scientist.R. Derek John Little Science. 2 percent in Manchester. and the TV weathercaster announced that there was a 50 percent chance o rain for Saturday. we can say that between 80 and 90 percent of all the scientists that have ever lived are alive now. I used to tease him about his use of percentages. and concluded that there was therefore a 100 percent chance of rain that weekend.1) Kissinger’s concem about a Russian attack on China was expressed many times. But I mix them 50-50. John Allen Innumeracy (p. Thomas Quoted in Paul Dickson’s The Official Explanations (p. we may say that 20 percent of them are bom in London. and so on. 1 percent in Bristol. “Why 60. de Solla Price. 3) . One horse. Paulos. Darrell How to Lie with Statistics (p. The Ends of Power Book Three (p. Jeans. a 2 percent probability of its being bom in Manchester. ”I have to put in some horse meat too.

Would You Let One Marry Your Sister? (p. Mark The Autobiography of Mark Twain Chapter 1 "Well". . he explained. 350) . one rabbit. But I mix them 50-50. Theodore Quoted i Harlon Ellison's n Dangerous Visions If All Men Were Brothers. It may not be modest in me to refer to this but it is true. "If you like statistical scales better than the truth." B w growled. It was a long joumey in those days and must have been a rough and tiresome one. One horse. for I was not bom then and cared nothing for such things. . It was more than many of the best men in history could have done for a town. Sturgeon." D m l lH ~ f f (See p.PERCENTAGES 153 "That would be a little like saying '102 percent normal. Twain. 152) - .'" said the Master smugly. The village contained a hundred people and I increased the population by 1 percent. "I have to put in some horse meat too. I do not remember just when.

and Human Judgment Volume 194. E.W. and has led to many extremely valuable insights. Flexibility in analysis is often to be had honestly at the price of 154 .' Hammond. Leonard Paraphrasing Edmund Muskie Science Science. Number 4263. please find me a one-armed statistician . Plato Tit?WeUS 48 The physical sciences are used to "praying over" their data. Values. Across the Board The Three R s of Economic Forecasting-Irrational. This process has been very rewarding. Adelman. Without this sort of flexibility. . . 7) I call upon God. . Howe. and to bring us to the heaven of probability.PRAYER Thank God for compensating errors. Kenneth R. and beg him to be our savior out of a strange and unwanted enquiry. 390) What is the thing we call Common Sense? It is prayer practically applied. . examining the same data from a variety of points of view. Irrelevant and Irreverent June 1977 Lord. Edgar R. progress in physical science would have been much slower. assistance given hope. Sinner Sermons (p. Fiedler. so I won't always hear 'on the other hand . 22 October 1976 (p.

In physical science generally. as indications rather than conclusions. Tukey. the results of praying over the data are thought of as something to be put to further test in another experiment. 46) . what analysis suggests. or prove.PRAYER 155 a willingness not to demand that what has already been observed shall establish. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics The Future of Data Analysis Volume 33. John W. Number 1. March 1962 (p.

if done honestly and with as little interpretation as possible a kind of randomization. . For the laws of i established observation of phenomena are generally employed to foresee their succession. Abraham The Conduct o Inquiry f Chapter IX. the knowledge of the future from the past. and perhaps the best of reason. But chicken guts are hard to read and invite flights of fancy or corruption. 111) Cutting up fowl to predict the future is.PREDICTION The am of every science is foresight (prevoyunce). Auguste Quoted in Bertrand de Jouvenel's The Art of Conjecture (p. Hacking.Section 40 (p. Newsweek Science and Stocks September 19. Al men. Kaplan. 350) Wall Street indexes predicted nine out of the last five recessions! Samuelson. Ian The Emergence of Probability Am Absent Family of Ideas (p. 1966 (p. however little advanced make true predictions. if we can predict successfully on the basis of a certain explanation we have good reason. l which are always based on the same principle. for accepting the explanation. Paul A. Compte. 3) . . 92) 156 .

unknown WHAT DA’I IS IT? ( PROBABLY MOUOAY. old soothsayer.” Scott. s n v (See p. ”Your calculations are true and undeniable when they regard brass and wire and mechanical force. To predict correctly is another. Sir Walter The Fortunes of Nigel Chapter VI (p. 1 Blnhazd P F .PRE DZCTZON 157 “Hold your peace. but future events are at the pleasure of Him who bears the hearts of kings in His hands.’’ said Heriot. 75) To predict is one thing. The most we can know i i t e r m of probabilities. who at that instant entered the room with a calm and steady countenance. 1 7 ) 6’ - .

what’s happening? ARTHUR: Ford. three to one . which are not capable of being reduc’d to a Mathematical Reasoning. Adam. we have normality . anything you still can’t cope with is therefore your own problem. when you have a Candle standing by you. four to one against and falling . . which one would imagine are subject to no Rules. . . And where mathematical reasoning can be had. . . . I believe the Calculation of the Quantity of Probability might be improved to a very useful and pleasant Speculation. Douglas The Original Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy Radio Script Fit the Second (p. . besides those of Games. two . . its as great folly to make use of any other. . . Douglas The Original Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy Radio Script Fit the Second (pp. one . . there’s an infinite number of monkeys outside who want to talk to us about this script for Hamlet they’ve worked out. Probability factor one to one . and applied to a great many Events which are accidental. . John Ofthe Laws of Chance Preface 158 . . Arthur . which can be successfully applied. . 41-2) TRILLIAN: Five to one against and falling . 42) The Reader may here observe the Force of Numbers. .PROBABILITY FORD: Arthur. I repeat we have normality . . . even to those things. Arbuthnot. This is fantastic. its a Sign our Knowledge of them is very small and confus’d. . There are very few things which we know. . we‘ve been picked up by a ship with the new Infinite Improbability Drive. Arthur. . Adam. and when they cannot. as to grope for a thing in the dark. . this is really incredible.

in an equal degree. It is under its influence that lotteries and other shameful snares cunningly laid for avarice and ignorance have definitely disappeared. merely because they are not certainties? Austen. it is the calculus of probabilities which alone can regulate justly the premiums to be paid for assurances. Amauld. Bagehot. Walter Quoted in Rudolf Flesch's The New Book o Unusual Quotations f . Russell Title of poem Are no probabilities to be accepted. discounts. ought to interest. Jane Sense and Sensibility Volume I. which. Chapter 15 Life is a school of probability. Chapter I1 The good or evil of an event should be considered in view of the event's likelihood of occurrence.PROBABILZTY 159 The calculus of probabilities. annuities. in useful character. services of the most eminent kind. 355) n Probability and Birds in the Yard Atkins. Antoine The Art of Thinking: Port-Royal Logic Belief i future contingent events (p. Aristotle The Art of Rhetoric Book I. after having suggested the best arrangements of the tables of populations and mortality. teaches us to deduce from those numbers. the experimentalist. it has rendered. the mathematician. when confined within just limits. Arago Smithsonian Report Eulogy on Laplace 1874 (p. It is the calculus of probabilities. the reserve funds for the disbursements of pensions. etc. and continues daily to render. 164) For that which is probable is that which generally happens. and the statesman. From the time when Pascal and Fermat established its first principles.

George Collected Logical Works Volume I1 An Investigation of the L w of Thought a Chapter X M (p. Billings. 151) Ambrozial weather will permeate all around Pordunk for the next 16 months. but only within certain approximation. 258) Probabilities must be regarded as analogous to the measurement of physical magnitudes. so to speak. and leave neither room nor demand for a theory of probabilities. all is to them a dull round of probabilities and possibilities. a quantitative average throughout the universe. it could only be concentrated or increased at the cost of a diminution elsewhere. If they don’t. Boole. be digrufied. .160 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING The more ridiculous a belief system. The Grand Wheel (p. Blake. du notiss will be giv. and all sorts ov stuff in the ballance ov the United States of America. Bayley. Human Behavior Keys to Success Luck was not probability. that is to say. It was. with rain and snow. William The Complete Writings o William Blake f The Ancient Britons Probability is expectation founded upon partial knowledge. Emile Probabilities and Life Introduction (pp. Wayne R. Josh Old Probability: Perhaps Rain-Perhaps Not Probabilitiz 1873 . Bartz. and don’t be skeerd. In the mean time be kalm. quantities of probability. The probabilitiz that the abuv probabilitiz will assimilate themselfs tew the principal probabilitiz in the case. And like any other fixed quantity. . A perfect acquaintance with all the circumstances affecting the occurrence of an event would change expectation into certainty. Barrington J. they can never be known exactly. but it acted through probability. the higher the probability of its success. Borel. 32-3) .

PRO BABZLITY 161 It is easier to make true misleading statements in the subject of probabilities than anywhere else. . The Growth o the Law (p. . like other branches of social science. without his being restrained by my judging. in the romance of early youth. Joseph The Analogy of Religion Introduction (p. Probability is no more ’relative’ and ‘subjective’ than is any other act of logical inference from hypothetical premise. Cardozo. Butler. 33) f . is rarely interrupted with scruples of probability. must be satisfied to test the validity of its conclusions by the logic of probabilities rather than the logic of certainty. January 10. Benjamin N. . God may have this probability increased to certainty. Number 54.” Boswell. 71) The play of imagination. “If I am well acquainted with a man. 209-10) Probability tells us what we ought to believe. Bumey. Bulwer. . Eugene Aram Book I Chapter 10 (p. 1778 (pp. Arthur E. Science The Theory of Probabilities Volume 111. Bostwick. Bradley. xxv) . The Principles of Logic (p. I can judge with great probability how he will act in any case. E. James The Life o Samuel Johnson f Volume I1 April 15. Lytton. probability is the very guide to life. 66) Johnson. law. 208) Fate laughs at probabilities.G.1896 (p. 102) But to us. F.H. Chapter V (p. what we ought to believe on certain data . Fanny Camilla Book 11.

Considine. Skill. that is. Journal o the American Statistical Association f Science and Society Volume 34. “Have you any thought. Part 1 (p.162 STATlSTICALLY SPEAKING ”Do you think that to cut a man’s throat like that would need a great force? Or.” H wrote: P = fpnhfififc “What it means.” resumed Valentine.” said the doctor. Chesterson. and Luck Chapter 2. only a very sharp knife?” ”I should say that it could not be done with a knife at all. I really haven’t. the probability that simple life will evolve on a habitable planet. pulled out a sheet of paper. C-32) Harry sighed irritably. Whenever one word or letter can change the entire meaning of a sentence.. p. Number 205. arching his painful brow.” Harry Adams said. the probability of an error being made will be in direct proportion to the embarrassment it will cause. John Chance. R H . “It’s a probability e equation. “is that the probability. etc. Bob Quoted in Paul Dickson’s The Oficiul Rules (p. 6 ) Unlike almost all mathematics. Cohen. rational. the probability that intelligent life will evolve from simple life. ”of a tool with which it could be done?” “Speaking within modem probabilities. something to which it is meaningless to apply such attributes as right. . that intelligent life will evolve in any star system is a function of the probability that the star will have planets. perhaps.” said the pale doctor. the number o habitable f planets. 28) Considine’s Law. the electron is just a “smear of probability”. . I agree completely with your statement that every probability evaluation is a probability evaluation. and the . March 1939 (p. Gilbert Keith The Father Brown Omnibus The Innocence of Father Brown The Secret Garden . Coats. wrong.

expressible only in terms of a bet. That’s all the equation says. Miguel The Ingenious Gentleman Don Quixote de la Mancha Part I. and that as fiction. 29) “But the point is that we have no facts. Charles The Life and Letters o Charles Darwin f Religion (p. more especially as contingent or dependent upon other propositions or events the probability of which is known. Chapter 47 My thesis . Michael Sphere The Briefing (p. . too. .’’ Crichton. or to the occurrence of events. Dampier-Whetham. future or past. the amount of credence due to propositions or statements.” Harry said. 155) As for a future life. I should reply that the falsehood is all the greater when it appears in the guise of truth. where possible.” Crichton. M.W. Fairies and Witches was an essential step along the road to scientific thinking. . is simply this: PROBABILITY DOES NOT EXIST. . the more it contains of the pleasing and the possible the more it delights us. 277) . Michael Sphere The Briefing (p. “We must guess at every single one of these probabilities. The Encyclopaedia Britannicn 9th Edition Probability Indeed the intellectual basis of all empirical knowledge may be said to be a matter of probability. William A History o Science f Chapter I11 (p. .PROBABILITY 163 probability that intelligent life will attempt interstellar communication within five billion years. de Cervantes. Crofton. The abandonment of superstitious beliefs about. every man must judge for himself between conflicting vague probabilities. Darwin. 29) The mathematical theory of probability is a science which aims at reducing to calculation. . . Probability.

. B. (2) his wife. Fermi asked how a general qualified for the adjective. and Groves replied that any general . de Jouvenel. 13) As to the influence and genius of great generals-there is a story that Enrico Fermi once asked Gen. an illusory attempt to exteriorize or materialize our true probabilistic beliefs. Groves said about three out of every 100. de Finetti. note 19) But how is it they suffer themselves to incline to and be swayed by probability. if they know not the truth itself? de Montaigne.164 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING if regarded as something endowed with some kind of objective existence. Ronald H. the best advised. (3) a better looking and richer male friend. Deifield. Quoted i Paul Dickson’s n The OfFcial Rules (p. is no less a misleading conception. Bertrand The Art of Conjecture (p. as the art of evaluating as exactly as possible the probabilities of things. Theory of Probability (p. B-12) The statistician’s report to management should not talk about probabilities. This is Probability Theory. the most certain. Leslie Groves how many generals might be called “great”. and all that we are reasonably entitled to. the most appropriate. Deming. The probability of a young man meeting a desirable receptive young female increases by pyrimidical progression when he is already in the company of (1) a date. and their reasonable relation to any kind of relevant objective data . all we require. . or stochastic art. this is the only object of the wisdom of the philosopher and the prudence of the statesman. 21. William Edwards Sample Design in Business Research (p. is consistency among these beliefs.12 Deifield’s Principle. Michel Eyquem The Essays Essays 11. It will merely give outside margins of error for the results of chief importance. x) We defined the art of conjecture. so that in our judgments and actions we can always base ourselves on what has been found to be the best. In investigating the reasonableness of our own modes of thought and behavior under uncertainty.

if that were possible the conclusion would be a matter o f certainty not probability. one in eight for three. Eddington. Apart from the hns obvious definition of a right-thinking person as ‘someone who t i k as I do’ (which is probably the definition at the back of our minds) there seems to be no easy way of defining his qualities. General. for we want to know the probability relative to the information stated and not relative to occult information. W e try to remove this subjective element by saying that the true probability corresponds to the judgment of a ’right-thinkingperson’. Sir Arthur Stanley New Pathways in Science Probability (p. William Edwards Out ofthe Crisis (p. 112) In most modem theories of physics probability seems to have replaced aether as ”the nominative of the verb ’to undulate”’. considering that the opposing forces in most theaters of operation are roughly equal. This was in the middle of. about three out of every 100. one of four that he will win two battles in a row. one of sixteen for four. for there is no question of making a strictly logical deduction from the evidence. W do not mean a person gdted with seconde sight. for he is likely to use his past experience to supplement surreptitiously the information on which the judgment of probability is ostensibly based.” Deming.PROBABILITY 165 who had won five major battles in a row might safely be called great. said Fermi.315) f One difficulty in employing strength of belief as a measure of probability is that an expectation of belief has partly a subjective bias. Well. then. W have e agreed that it depends (and ought to depend) on the information or evidence supplied. “So you are right.394) There can be no unique probability attached to any event or behaviour: we can only speak of ”probability in the light of certain given information”. but how shall hs we define ti ideal reference? We do not mean a perfectly logical person. 110) . We do not particularly mean a person of long experience in similar judgments. Mathematical probability. Sir Arthur Stanley New Pathways in Science Probability (p. and the probability alters according to the extent of the information.World War II. Sir Arthur Stanley The Nature o the Physical World (p. Eddington. one of thuty-two for five. but in addition the strength of the expectation depends on the personality of the man who weighs the evidence. Eddington. the odds are one of two that a general will win a battle. not genius.

and the charm. Eliot. David Quoted in Paul Dickson’s TIE q c i a r Rules (p. of geometry or analytical mechanics. The character. Ellis.166 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING Probability may be described. Eliot. F-60) Probability is a mathematical discipline with aims akin to those. Edgeworth. agreeably to general usage. for example. George The Mill on the Floss Book v. then it is damn near zero. Eliot. ignorance gives one a large range of probabilities. Eliot. .1884 . of the whole structure cannot be appreciated without considering all three aspects in their proper relation. William An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications (p. (b) the intuitive background. 1) . In each field we must carefully distinguish three aspects of the theory: (a) the formal logical content. Fear is almost always haunted by terrible dramatic scenes. . (c) the applications. Feller. George Daniel Deronda 11 xiii (p. as importing partial incomplete belief. George The George Eliot Letters Volume I1 (p. which recur in spite of the best-argued probabilities against them. Francis Ysidro Mind The Philosophy of Chance Volume 9. 100) Secrets are rarely betrayed or discovered according to any program our fear has sketched out. George The George Eliot Letters Volume I1 (p. v Still there is a possibility-even a probability-the other way. If the probability of success is almost one. . 127) But I see no probability of my being able to be with you before your other Midsummer visitors arrive. 160) Fourth Law of Thermodynamics. .

Edinburgh and Dublin Philosophical h4agazine and Journal o Science f On the alleged evidence for a Physical Connection between Stars forming Binary or Multiple Groups Third Series. or having occurred before he is informed of the results. Austin A Certain Dr. . 145) ss . 15) But if probability measures the importance of our state of ignorance it must change its value whenever we add new knowledge. Probability and Its Engineering Uses (p. . Feller. Richard P.D. Forbes. The most we can know is in terms of probabilities. They represent only the state of expectation of the mind of a person before the event has occurred. Friedman. Thorndyke Thomdyke Makes a Beginning The balance of probabilities is in favor of that view. 51) After all. Fry. December 1850 (p. and in every assertion keeps a doubt in reserve. Much of our knowledge must always remain uncertain. R. 6-11) . the ratios or probabilities of which we have been speaking have no absolute signification with reference to an event which has occurred . Froude. J. And so it does. Feynman. 19) In its efforts to learn as much as possible about nature.PROBABILITY 167 All possible "definitions" of probability fall short of the actual practice. . The London. The Feynman Lectures on Physics (pp. From Beirut to Jerusalem (p. modem physics has found that certain things can never be "known" with certainty. James Anthony Short Studies on Great Subjects Calvinism (p. Thomas L. Freeman. Thomton C . without the experiment-either a real one or a mathematical model-there would be no reason for a theory of probability. 35) Philosophy goes no further than probabilities. Thomton C. William A n Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications (p. . Probability and Its Engineering U e (p. 406) It is a question of probabilities . . . Fry.

1 Men are deplorably ignorant with respect to natural things. Keep probability in view. Chapter 10 Of course. George New Grub Street Interim (p. Gracian. as you have. 38) f Wisdom does not trust to probabilities. Gracian. William O n the Loadstone and Magnetic Bodies and on the Great h4agnet the Earth Book 1. Gracian.168 STATlSTlCALLY SPEAKING Lest men suspect your tale untrue. and that rests only on vain arguments from probability and upon conjecture. must be aroused and taught the uses of things. 411) It is only by mature meditation on the possibilities and probabilities of future events-that we can elude the tortuous troubles of the tomorrows. they must be made to quit the sort of learning that comes only from books. it always marches in the midday light of reason. the dealing with things. Gay. 22) f Whereas wisdom favors the probabilities. if your work is strong. Corvan’s The Best o Grucian (p. Gilbert. Balthasar Quoted in Thomas G. as though dreaming in the darkness. Corvan’s The Best o Grucian (p. Balthasar Quoted in Rudolf Flesch’s The New Book of Unusual Quotations . the probability is that half a dozen people will at last begin to shout that you have been monstrously neglected. and you can afford to wait. folly favors only the possibilities. Balthasar Quoted in Thomas G. Gissing. and modem philosophers. John John Gay: Poetry and Prose Fables The Painter Who Pleased Nobody and Everybody 1.

F. 46) Probability is too important to be left to the experts. what thing was there ever set down so agreeable with sound reason but some probable show against it might be made. . Gumperson.F. 342) probability = (possibility)* Herbert. Austin Allibone’s Prose Quotations from Socrates to Mncauhy Probability A reasonable probability is the only certainty. Hooker. Hamming. O. 1957 (p. Changing Times Gumperson’s Law Volume 11. E. Hypothesis and Perception The Logic of Construction (p. Number 11. Gumperson. The Art of Probability for Scientists and Engineers (p. Holmes.W. Howe. . R. 96) No priest or soothsayer that ever lived could hold his own against Old Probabilities. Number 11.46) The outcome of a given desired probability will be inverse to the degree of desirability. Nick Quantum Reality (p. 4) Probability is truth in some degree. November. 23) . 327) As for probabilities. R. Changing Times Gumperson’s Law Volume 11.W. Pagesfrom an Old Volume of Life (p.PROBABZLZTY 169 . 1957 (p. November. Sinner Sermons (p. Harris. Errol E. the contradictory of a welcome probability will assert itself whenever such an eventuality is likely to be most frustrating. Richard Quoted in S. Richard W.

Part IV. in much the same way that there are laws goveming our society. David A Treatise o Human Nature f Book I. and it is against these that we must examine the use of an identical division number. and these are called the laws of probability. your Honor. by waiting longer. and further. . and which even differ much therefrom. There will be seen in it demonstrations of those kinds which do not produce as great a certitude as those of geometry. when one can imagine and foresee new phenomena which ought to follow from the hypotheses which one employs. when things which have been demonstrated by the principles that have been assumed correspond perfectly to the phenomena which experiment has brought under observation. and when one finds that therein the fact corresponds to our prevision. I have finally judged that it was better worth while to publish this writing such as it is. of remaining lost. here the principles are verified by the conclusions to be drawn from them. Huygens. Hume. especially when there are a great number of them. there are also laws goveming chance. whereas the geometers prove their propositions by fixed and incontestable principles. Aldous Proper Studies Varieties of Intelligence (p. Evan The Paper Dragon Tuesday Chapter 6 Magic and devils offend our sense of probabilities. . It is always possible to attain thereby to a degree of probability which very often is scarcely less than complete proof. . Section 1 ”Now. the nature of these things not allowing of this being done otherwise.. this ought to be a very strong confirmation of the success of my inquiry. To wit. But if all these proofs of probability are met with in that which I propose to discuss.” Hunter. since. 7) . as it seems to me they are. principally. than to let it run the risk.1 70 S TATZSTZCALLY SPEAKING All knowledge resolves itself into probability. Hwley. Christiaan Treatise on Light Preface .

. Possibilities. heading the lst. 28) . 2nd. a spectrum ranging from number theory to physics. 83) Perhaps an editor might begin a reformation in some way as this. Chapter 111 (p. Probabilities. Divide his paper into four chapters. others have suggested seriously a 'barometer of probability'. John Maynard A Treatise on Probability Chapter 111 (p. 3rd. None of those nasty mathematical probabilities we're so fond of. Lies.1807 To the author the main chain of probability theory lies in the enormous variability of its applications. 251) . Keynes. Edward Newman. 20) Probability is. As soon as you step into the box you see a curtain of obstinate incomprehension clanging down over their minds. Thus. the statement "head and tail are equiprobable'' is at best an assumption. Keynes. Death o an Expert Witness f Book 11." James. . .PROBABILITY "Juries hate scientific evidence. Kac. What they want is certainty. ix) Equiprobability in the physical world is purely a hypothesis . closely analogous to Similarity. and even fewer have penetrated so decisively the whole of our scientific thinking. so far as measurement is concerned. John Maynard A Treatise on Probability Chapter 111 (p. Jefferson. P. Thomas Letter to John Norvell June 11. 4th. Few mathematical disciplines have contributed to as wide a spectrum of subjects. Truth. . Did this paint particle come from this car body? Answer yes or no. Kasner. Mark Lectures in Applied Mathematics Volume I Probability and Related Topics in Physical Sciences (p." 171 hn "They t i k they won't be able to understand it so naturally they can't understand it.D. James Mathematics and the Imagination (p.

. . . . Laplace. 1) . 9) . Foundations of the Theory of Probability Chapter 1 Elementary Theory of Probability (p. and yet treatises on the subject profess to arrive at complicated results of the greatest precision and the most profound practical importance. Pierre-Simon A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities (p. Laplace. 3) It is remarkable that a science that began by considering games of chance should itself be raised to the rank of the most important subject of human knowledge. . Kolmogorov. PierreSimon Essai Philosophique sur les Probabilith (p. and Smokler. Studies in Subjective Probability (p. the principle means of arriving at the truth . additive set function. Andrei N. . 1) Probability has reference partly to our ignorance. there is no problem about probability: it is simply a non-negative. . . John Maynard A Treatise on Probability Chapter IV (p. Pierre-Simon A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities (p. . . for the most part. Kyburg. .. are based on probabilities. partly to our knowledge. in the small number of things we are able to know with any certainty . H E . 123) The most important questions of life are.. 251) The theory of probability as mathematical discipline can and should be developed from axioms in exactly the same way as Geometry and Algebra. Jr. really only problems of probability. . or of how we are ever to determine the probability of any particular proposition.172 STATZSTZCALLY SPEAKlNG It is difficult to find an intelligible account of the meaning of 'probability'. H E . Keynes. Laplace. whose maximum value is unity.

. Dennis V. C. or fuzzifiers? Lindley. . Lewis. or the probability of anything else. 22 (p. 330) A ”poor evaluation” of the probability of anything may reflect ignorance of relevant data which “ought” to be known . Clarence Irving Mind and the World-Order Chapter X I (p. 399) There is no such thing as the probability of four aces in one hand. but we can get probability. Lewis. Christian Reflections Para. Duke of Brunswick Hanover (p. and half e a loaf is better than no bread. Lewis. .PROBABILITY 1 73 . though it would be of great importance in legal matters and even in the management business. believers. Lincoln.S. empirical knowledge is exclusively a knowledge of probabilities . Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz: Philosophical Papers and Letters Volume I Letter to John Frederick. . 111) The probability that we may fall in the struggle ought not to deter us from the support of a cause we believe to be just.1839 Are we probabilists. the art of weighing probabilities is not yet even partly explained. 331) . . Lewis. everything is either certainly true or certainly false. Statistical Science Comment:A Tale of Two Wells Volume 2. . Abraham The Sub-Treasury Speech Springfield. Illinois December 26. . Clarence Irving Mind and the World-Order Chapter X (p. Clarence Irving Mind and the World-Order Chapter X (p. . Given all the relevant data which there are to be known. it shall not deter me. 38) . 345) W may not be able to get certainty. Leibniz. Number 1 February 1987 (p.

235) If absolutes had disappeared under the inquiries of science. you'll get five thousand heads. Ludlum. Condominium: A Novel Chapter 26 (p. Like a coin. If a coin comes up heads fifty times.XV. based on probabilities. Locke. Robert The Bourne Supremacy Chapter 24 (p.. John An Essay Concerning Human Understanding Book IV. Locke. and apparently they had. But if you flip it ten thousand times.XV. John Quoted i S. 4 The mind ought to examine al the grounds of probability. 365) Messenger said. why then the only rational procedure. John An Essay Concerning Human Understanding Book IV. was to follow where the probabilities led. "Can you work out any equations of probability of one hitting here?" "No sir. reject or receive it proportionably to the preponderancy of probability on the one side or the other. Locke. John D. Robert The Bourne Supremacy Chapter 18 (p. 1 Probability is likeness to be true . head or tail. Dexter The Accident (p. Masters. A hurricane has no memory. the odds on the next flip are still fifty-fifty. but it was all he had left. it was a reality. Ludlum. the only procedure consistent with man's development. plus or minus. 256) It was a desperate strategy.174 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING Probability is the appearance of agreement upon fallible proofs. 19) . Austin Allibone's n Prose Quotations from Socrates to Macaulay Probability It wasn't a probability anymore.." MacDonald. and upon l a due balancing the whole.

Peirce.1948 (p. and you can no longer displease it. Muggeridge. I believe. Number 35. Chesterton once remarked that when people ceased to believe in God they do not believe in nothing.S. Pearl. Minnick. in which good writers frequently get results entirely erroneous. 142) . 279) . and you can no longer please the world. however.PROBABILZ" 175 Uncertainty is introduced.it may be doubtful if there is a single extensive treatise on probabilities in existence which does not contain solutions absolutely indefensible. E. 21) Hitherto the user has been accustomed to accept the function of probability theory laid down by the mathematicians.. 278) This branch of mathematics [probability] is the only one. Pearson. most'of the time. Wayne C . Charles Sanders Writings of Charles Sanders Peirce Volume 3 (p. but in anything. which happens to all members of a class. . but it would be good if he could take a larger share in formulating himself what are the practical requirements that the theory should satisfy in applications. Malcolm New Statesman 1955 Take away probability. Charles Sanders Writings o Charles Sanders Peirce f Volume 3 (p. Pascal. The Art o Persuasion (p. I suppose that the Monarchy has become a kind of ersatz religion. Peirce. Even scientific truth is a matter of probability and the degree of probability stops somewhere short of certainty. give probability. Biometrika The Choice of Statistical Test Illustrated on the Interpretation of Data Classed i a 2 x 2 Table n Volume 34. Judea Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems (p. 167) f The probability is. Blaise The Thoughts of Blaise Pascal Appendix: Polemical Fragments 918 Probabilities are summaries of knowledge that is left behind when information is transferred to a higher level of abstraction. by the impossibility of making generalizations.

Probability opposed to certainty is what we do not know. Poincar6. and unless great caution is observed in the use of them. in reference to a single case considered in itself. 189) The very name calculus of probabilities is a paradox. Frederik The Coming of the Quantum Cats (p. therefore.” He paused to look at the other faces for disagreement. we are never absolutely sure that experiment will not contradict it. Henri The Foundations of Science Science and Hypothesis (p. or occurrences.” Pohl. Henri The Foundations o Science f Science and Hypothesis (p. 281) I know too well that these arguments from probabilities are impostors. and how can we calculate what we do not know? Poincar6. “If this goes on. they are apt to be deceptive. and still propagating. These seem to be characterized by a peculiar kind of incalculability which makes one disposed to believe-after many unsuccessful attempts-that all known .” he said evenly. It is far better to foresee even without certainty than not to foresee at all. 129) The most important application of the theory of probability is to what we may call ‘chance-like’or ’random’ events.176 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING The idea of probability essentially belongs to a kind of inference which is repeated indefinitely. if we undertake to venfy it . . 155) No matter how solidly founded a prediction may appear to us. and can show no effect of probability. There wasn’t any. An individual inference must be either true or false. Plato Phaedo 92 ”I t i k we can see the extent of the problem. Peirce. I’ve measured harmonics hn up to the sixth-order already. Charles Sanders Writings of Charles Sanders Peirce Volume 3 (p. . probability can have no meaning. and. ”I project a nine-nines probability that within one standard year the disturbances will be effectively both plenary and irreversible.

" So says the half-educated man . Popper. . The Dark Side of the Sun ( p . We have.PROBABILITY 177 rational methods of prediction must fail in their case. space and time without limit. . The Dark Side o the Sun ( p . T . . as it were. 153) f PROBABILI'IY MATH: "As with the first Theory of Relativity and the Sadhimist One Commandment. The Dark Side of the Sun ( p . sifting through the population of the galaxy to find those who's probability profile matched the theoretical one for the discoverers of Jokers World. it is just this incalculability that makes us conclude that the calculus of probability can be applied to these events. 150) "You haven't heard of probability math? You. The Logic of Scientific Discovery (p. T . Pratchett. the feeling that not a scientist but only a prophet could predict them. 37) . . and tomorrow you become Chairman of the Board of Widdershins and heir to riches untold? Then first we will talk. T . But if the universe is so ordered." Pratchett. 24) ." Pratchett. Karl R. W now understand e probability." "Probability math predicts the future." Pratchett. worlds without end-a creation so vast that what we are pleased to call our cause-and-effectdatum Universe is a mere circle of candlelight. The Dark Side of the Sun ( p . so-immutable-that the future can be told by a handful of numbers. T . . And yet. so the nine equations of probability math provide an example of a deceptively simple spark initiating a great explosion of social change. then why need we go on living?" Pratchett. by the mathemagic of probability. 22) "Understanding is the first step towards control. and then we will eat. T . . . . The Dark Side of the Sun ( p . "Probability math arises from the premise that we dwell in a truly infinite totality. In such a totality we can only echo the words of Quixote: All things are possible . 13) "I can't pretend to understand probability math.

it types by chance one of Shakespeare's sonnets. contrary to Mr.46) f . Roy A. Reade. by which the degree of belief in it which it would be rational for me to have is that given by the probability relation between the proposition in question and the things I know for certain. Russell. Italian I think I perceive or remember something but am not sure. The long-time winner is the man who is not unreasonably discouraged by persistent streaks of ill fortune not at other times made reckless with the thought that he is fortune's darling. Jean-Paul The Philosophy o Existentialism (p. He keeps a cool head and trusts in the mathematics of probability. Factors o Grozoth in a Law Practice (p. 190) I feign probabilities. Ramsey. we always have to reckon with probabilities. Keynes' theory. Bertrand A.178 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING In this case probability must atone for want of Truth. Charles A Tm'ble Temptation: a story of the day Good and bad come mingled always. the law of averages. 309) A thousand probabilities does not make one fact. Sartre. this would seem to give me some ground for believing it. Matthew The Literary Works of Matthew Prior Solomon Preface (p. Frank Plumpton The Foundation o Mathematics and Other Logical Essays f Truth and Probability The Logic of Consistency (p. I record improbabilities. or as often said. Nightmares o Eminent Persons f The Metaphysician's Nightmare (p. Proverb. 29) When we want something. Redfield. 168) f There is a special department of hell for students of probability. Prior. Every time that a monkey walks on a typewriter. In this department there are many typewriters and many monkeys.

. far without at least an acquaintance with the mathematics of probability. Friedrich Quoted in Rudolf Flesch's The New Book o Unusual Quotations f And nobody can get . we can take it that we are not held within un-. and we prophesy in part.or supematural forces after all. that they never do anything else. George Bernard The W r d o Mathematics ol f Volume 3 (p. The Bible I C r n h a s 13:9 oitin . Shaw. personal bias. sub. 17) c For we know in part. . Stoppard. sub. guesswork. then we must accept that the probability of thejirst part will not operate as a factor with un-. not to the extent of making its calculations and filling examination papers with typical equations. that is.or supematural forces. Tom Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead A t One (p. but enough to know when they can be trusted. and pecuniary interests. S i l r s n tge' The History o Statistics f Chapter 10 (p. they are safe within certain limits.PROBABZLZTY 179 It is better to be satisfied with probabilities than to demand impossibilities and starve. and when they are cooked.or supematural forces the probability is that the law of probability will not operate as a factor. . Letter from Francis Ysidro Edgeworth to K r Pearson al 11 September 1893 Quoted i Stephen M. Schiller. but when the calculation is one of no constant and several very capricious variables. . in all probability. For when their imaginary numbers correspond to exact quantities of hard coins unalterably stamped with heads and tails. come in so strong that those who began by ignorantly imagining that statistics cannot lie end by imagining equally ignorantly. 1531) The Vice of Gambling and the Virtue of Insurance I hope that you flourish in Probabilities. And since it obviously hasn't been doing so. for here we have solid certainty . sub. 326) If we postulate that within un-.

and soon probability is reduced to zero. probabilities. and probability diminishes. equal to one strong probability. Voltaire The Portable Voltaire Philosophical Dictionary Truth Almost all human life depends on probabilities. Austin Allibone's Prose Quotations from Socrates to Mucaulay Probability It is a known fact that if a man uses one of the end urinals his probability o being pissed on is reduced by 50 percent. good luck and bad that weaves its way throughout the length and breadth o the tapestry.21 (p. yet it is also frequently used for a fr assent to a thing upon such grounds as fully im satisfy a prudent man. Thurber. which can only produce a doubtful assent. From the very start there is an interplay of possibilities. von Clausewitz. James Lanterns and Lances Such a Phrase as Drifts Through Dreams Though moral certainty be sometimes taken for a high degree of probability. absolute.180 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING A pinch of probability is worth a pound of perhaps. Tollotson. 86) . so-called mathematical factors never find a fr im basis in military calculations. f Unknown He who has heard the thing told by twelve thousand eye-witnesses. In the whole range f of human activities war most closely resembles a game of cards. has only twelve thousand probabilities. which is not equal to certainty. Karl On War Chapter 1. Voltaire The Portable Voltaire Philosophical Dictionary Truth From generation to generation skepticism increases. Voltaire Essays Probabilities In short. John Quoted in S.

65) f The road is a strange place. in a sense. 33) . 125) Only a certain probability remains of a one-to-one association of any spatial feature now with a similar feature a moment later. no reference to a prolonged sequence of cases is possible and it hardly makes sense to assign a numerical value to such a conjecture. Richard Probability. 22-3) But Positivistic science is solely concemed with observed fact. Shuffling along I looked up and you were there walking across the grass toward my truck on a n August day. Stu tistics and Truth First Lecture (p. Whitehead. and must hazard no conjecture as to the future. or even while one is. 13-4) One can locate an octopus by giving the coordinates of his beak. then there is no other knowledge. Richard Mathematical Theory of Probability and Statistics (pp. Waller. von Mises. Probability is relative to knowledge. Alfred North Adventures of Ideas Cosmologies (p. Whyte. it seemed inevitablcit could not have been any other way-a case of what I call the high probability of the improbable. . Lancelot Law Essay on Atomism: from Democritus to 2960 Chapter 2 (pp. that any physical apparatus stays put. though small. von Mises. In retrospect. for the laws of quantum mechanics allow it a finite. 25-6) . It is sheer luck.PROBABILITY 181 The theory of probability can never lead to a definite statement concerning a single event. There is no probability as to the future within the doctrine of Positivism. Robert James The Bridge of Madison County (pp. If observed fact be all we know. but it would be unwise to forget that neighboring coordinates for two or three yards out in all directions have a considerable probability of being occupied by octopus at a given instant. . probability of dispersing while one is not looking. Marshall The Nature o Scient@ Thought (p. if one talks of the probability that the two poems known as the Iliad and the Odyssey have the same author. Walker.

182 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING If the universe is a mingling of probability clouds spread through a cosmic eternity of space-time. He drew up charts analyzing the elements of probability in the various games. 123) The theory of probabilities and the theory of errors now constitute a formidable body of knowledge of great mathematical interest and of great practical importance. and physics. Woodward. their range of applicability extends to all the sciences. and coherent transformation as there is? Whyte. Wilder. . No ignoble consideration of probability. Illinois to Chile (p. that cowardly concession to the tedious repetitions of domestic or public life. geodesy. He had a memory for numbers and symbols. Thomton The Eighth Day 11. and they are plainly destined to play a n increasingly important role in the development and in the applications of the sciences of the future. persistence. but he took great interest in the play of numbers. Robert S. Lancelot Law Essay on Atomism:from Democritus to 1960 Chapter 2 (p. affect it ever. Oscar The Critic as Artist Part I Ashley had no competitive sense and no need for money. how is there as much order. Wilde. 27) Gilbert . Hence their study is not only a commendableelement in a liberal education. Probability and Theory of Errors Preface . Though developed largely through the applications to the more precise sciences of astronomy. but some knowledge of them is essential to a correct understanding of daily events. .

L. happen. coalesce and separate and recombine. . Rambling through Science Gambling (p. we ought to act accordingly to what is most probable . these fundamental elements of scientific knowledge assimilate and grow. Purtell. and can serve to direct the conduct of the wise man. They do not predict. shrink and wane. Descartes. A. die and come to life again. de Leeuw. 88) When it is not in our power to determine what is true. Warren v. Chapter 5. Barry. . . 63 Georgia Reports 428. but what m y . and while they persist they are never more than probable. Frederick The Scient@ Habit o Thought (p.PROBABLE In short. . many sensations are probable. . . Logan E. Cicero De Natura Deorum Book I. but not what is certain to happen. section 12 The laws of chance tell us what is probable. They do not tell us what will. Rent! Discourse on the Method o Rightly Conducting the f Reason and Seekingfor Truth in the Sciences Part 1 1 1 183 . though not accounting to a full perception they are yet possessed of a certain distinctness and cleamess. that is. 430 (1879) . 139) f . Bleckley. it is always probable that something improbable will happen.

Gilbert. but undoubtedly false.184 STATlSTlCALLY SPEAKlNG Such a fact is probable. . Gibbon. M. all empirical knowledge is probable only. No possible doubt whatever. . The dictionary tells me that ’probable’ means ’likely’. Edward The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire Notes: Chapter XXIV. Henry Quoted in S. Clarence Irving Mind and the World-Order Chapter X (p. possible. Facts from Figures The Laws of Chance (p. so is truth to belief . are only mortal men. or of improbables the least. Lewis. Blaise The Thoughts o Blaise Pascal f Appendix: Polemical Fragments. . am the speaker. Hammond. Arthur The Complete Plays of Gilbert and Sullivan The Gondoliers Act I The only seasonable inquiry is. 309) There are certain notions which it is impossible to define adequately..J. W S Sullivan. No probable. Further reference gives the not very helpful information that ‘likely’ means ’probable’. Which is of probables the most. 4) But is it probable that probability gives assurance? Pascal. 908 As being is to become. Plato Timaeus 29 . such. and you who are the judges. Such notions are found to be those based on universal experience of nature. Moroney. Enough if we adduce probabilities as likely as any other. Probability is such a notion. for we must remember that I who . Austin Alibone’s Prose Quotations from Socrates to Macaukay Probability The only knowledge a priori is purely analytic. shadow of doubt. 116 Of that there is no manner of doubt. . and we ought to accept the tale which is probable and enquire no further .

you must have a firm hold on the true. Shakespeare. K r R. Reichenbach. 51) f It may be probable she lost it .1. . 76 . 1. 185 PoincarC. before there can be any truth whatsoever. 93) All views are only probable. al The Logic o Scientific Discovery (p. 1. Shakespeare. Hans The Rise of Scientific Philosophy (p. can only be probable. . Henri The Foundations o Science f Science and Hypothesis (p. 155) I think that we shall have to get accustomed to the idea that we must not look upon science as a 'body of knowledge' but rather as a system of hypotheses. In order to describe the probable. as a system of guesses or anticipations which in principle cannot be justified. Therefore. but with which we work as long as they stand up to tests. that is to say.76 'lis probable and palpable to thinking. 115 Most probable That so she died . The Moor of Venice Act I. Scene 2. William The Complete Works o William Shakespeare f Othello.. Scene 2.. Jean-Paul The Philosophy o Existentialism (p. there must be absolute truth. Scene 4. and of which we are never justified in saying that we know that they are 'true' or 'more or less certain' or even 'probable'.PROBABLE Predicted facts . Popper. which is incomplete unless a theory of probability is developed that explains what we should mean by "probable" and on what ground we can assert probabilities. and a doctrine of probability which is not bound to a truth dissolves into thin air. Sartre. Shakespeare. William The Complete Works o William Shakespeare f Cymbeline Act 11... William The Complete Works o William Shakespeare f Anthony and Cleopatra Act V. 317) f To say that observations of the past are certain. whereas predictions are merely probable. it is only a sort of intermediate answer. is not the ultimate answer to the question of induction.

Scene 2. Shakespeare. . sure. .l.186 STATZSTlCALLY SPEAKING Which to you shall seem probable . and very probable . Wilkins. . South. Alvin Future Shock (p. Shakespeare. Toffler. 1. 30) f f . John O the Principles and Duties o Natural Religion (p. Austin Alibone's Prose Quotations fiom Socrates to Macaulay Probability The management of changes is the effort to convert certain possibles into probables. 11 That is accounted probable which has better arguments producible for it than can be brought against it. 407) It is probable that many things will happen contrary to probability.l. William The Complete Works of William Shakespeare As You Like It Act 111. William The Complete Works of William Shakespeare Coriolanus Act IV. Scene 5. 178 'lis pretty. I do not know Shakespeare. Scene 1. Unknown In all the ordinary affairs of l i e men are used to guide their actions by this rule. . Robert Quoted in S. William The Complete Works of William Shakespeare The Tempest Act V. 249 How probable. in pursuit of agreed-on preferables. namely to incline to that which is most probable and likely when they cannot attain any clear unquestionable certainty.

however complicated. . when you looked at it in the right way. did not become still more complicated. Only a few problems have a single answer. 949) . Bloch. 1968 187 . Cleaver. Right Answers-A Computers and Automation Short Guide for Obtaining Them September 1969 h i d e every large problem is a small problem struggling to get out. Chambers. 50) Man is seen to be an enigma only as an individual. organicism New Scientist Volume 43. 638) Most problems have either many answers or no answer. Gilbert Keith The Father Brown Omnibus The Scandal of Father Brown The Point of the Pin (p. he is a mathematical problem. Arthur Murphy’s Law Hoare’s Law of Large Problems (p.25 September 1969 (p. Edmund C. in mass. Robert Vestiges o the Natural History o Creation (p. It is that they can’t see the problem.PROBLEMS I have yet to see any problem. . which. Eldridge Speech in San Francisco. 333) f f It isn’t that they can’t see the solution. Poul Quoted in William Thorpe’s article Reduction v. Anderson. Berkeley. Chesterson. you’re either part of the solution or part of the problem. Number 66.

Origin: mean ”poor or inferior in grade or quality” + repair ”to take off”: as.] . Stan The Devil’s DP Dictionary M’ITR n. for which there is no easy convergence test: M-”F M’ITRTF MTTLFEPN Mean T i e To Notice Fault Mean Time To React To Fault Mean T i e To Locate Field Engineer’s Phone Number MTTCFE Mean T i e To Call Field Engineer MTAFECB Mean T i i e Awaiting Field Engineer’s Call Back MTTCSC Mean T i e To Check Service Contract MTTCFES Mean Time To Call Field Engineer’s Superior MTTLTFEDBS Mean T i e To Listen To Field Engineer’s Disclaimer Blaming Software MTTCA Mean Time To Call Attomey MTFFETA Mean Tune For Field Engineer To Arrive MTrD Mean T i e To Diagnose MTTLTFEDBS Mean T i e To Listen To Field Engineer’s Disclaimer Blaming Software MTOOSCM x M# Mean T i e Ordering/Obtaining Software/Changing Modules multiplied By Number of Modules M’ITRB Mean T i e To ReBoot MTTRRB Mean T i e To ReReBoot Kelly-Bootle. in decades or fractions of decades) leads to a stultifying sense of boredom and complacency on the part of the user. [Mean T i i e To Repair. [Mean T i e Between Failure. Kelly-Bootle. Let’s repair to the bar. . usually.QUALITY CONTROL MTBF n.] The possible sum of the following series. . Stan The Devil‘s DP Dictionary 188 . Manufacturers have long been aware that too high a value for the MTBF (measured.

are in the same position as the man who bets on a horse r a c e w i t h one exception. 156) - .A. as a producer or purchaser. Textile World Quality Control Posts Mill-Production Odds Volume 94. University of Pennsylvania Bicentennial Conference Without quality control you. Frank M. Steadman.to the difference between the use of a scientific method based upon the concept of laws of nature that do not allow for chance or uncertainty and a scientific method based upon the concepts of laws of probability as an attribute of nature. Jul-Dec 1944 (p. the odds are not posted. Samuelson (See p. W.QUALZTY CONTROL 189 The fundamental difference between engineering with and without statistics boils down . Unknown Wl Street indexes predicted nine out of the last five recessions I al Paul A. 63) You can't inspect quality into a product. Shewhart.

George How to be an Alien Israel (p. they have no passion for queueing. form orderly queues at many places. But they stick to the queueing etiquette. Unlike the British. and guard their rights with a morose kind of vigilance. Old Army Saying There is one habit which is clearly of British origin-that of queueing. they do not like queueing for queueing’s sake.QUEUE Hurry up and wait. Mikes. 121) 190 .

speed. 147) Hardyman’s Truism. The RAND Corporation Title of Book 191 . Robert A. Random stomping seldom catches bugs.All the King’s horses and all the King’s men Couldn’t put Humpty Dumpty in his place again. and action that Brian remarked. Carroll.” Heinlein. Lewis The Complete Works o Lewis Carroll f Through the Looking Glass Humpty Dumpty What they appear to tell us is that nothing is so alien to the human mind as the idea of randomness. ”That kitten doesn’t have a brain. Skill. John Chance. he just has a skull full of random numbers. and whenever he bangs his head into a chair f or ricochets o f a wall.000 Normal Deviates. But he demonstrated such lightening changes in mood. Cohen. it shakes up the random numbers and causes him to do something else. Peers. 42) The kitten was an adorable mass of silver-grey fluff and was at first named Fluffy Ruffles through an error in sex. and Luck Chapter 2. Part IV (p. To Sail Beyond the Sunset Chapter 10 (p. John 1001 Logical Laws (p. 27) A Million Random Digits with 100. she was a he.

as one may. and who hath clear foresight of nothing? 'i best to live at random. Robert A. Sophocles The Plays of Sophocles Oedipus the King 1.997 Random is not haphazard Unknown and whenever he bangs his head into a chair or ricochets off a wall. for whom the degree of fortune Ts are supreme.192 STATISTICALLY SPEAKlNG Iocustu. 191) . Nay. Heinlein . it shakes up the random numbers and causes him to do something else.(See p. what should mortal fear.

you can see everything.REASON Pile up facts or observations as we may. 87) Reason is the shepherd trying to corral life’s vast flock of wild irrationalities. Watson. Sherlock in Arthur Conan Doyle’s The Complete Sherlock Holmes The Adventure of the Blue Carbuncle 193 . Sherlock in Arthur Conan Doyle’s The Complete Sherlock Holmes The Adventure of the Empty House ”I can see nothing.” Holmes.” Holmes. Bernard. You fail. To learn. ”On the contrary. handing it back to my friend. Paul Maxims for a Modern Man 2194 “Ah! my dear Watson. we shall be none the wiser. there we come into those realms of conjecture where the most logical mind may be at fault. You are too timid in drawing your inferences. we must necessarily reason about what we have observed. Claude A n Introduction to the Study o Experimental Medicine (p. The Art of Scientific Investigation (p. W. to reason from what you see. however. 16) f How easy it is for unverified assumptions to creep into our reasoning unnoticed! Beveridge.I.B.” said I. compare the facts and judge them by other facts used as controls. Eldridge.

holds that i f we are wholly ignorant of the different ways an event can occur and therefore have no reasonable ground for preference. Newton. would be able to evolve from their own inner consciousness what the steps were which led up to the result. 229) This kind of reasoning has weaknesses. not complete. Alexis L. This principle . . Edward Newman. it is as likely to occur m e way as another. then the argument collapses. Wayne C. Sir Isaac Opticks Book One. will tell you what the result would be. . as do all forms of reasoning. There are few people. 16) My Design in this Book is not to explain the Properties of Light by Hypotheses. if significant differences can be shown to exist. Sherlock in Arthur Conan Doyle’s The Complete Sherlock Holmes A Study in Scarlet One of the difficulties arising out of the subjective view of probability results from the principle of insuficient reasons. . The Art of Persuasion (p. Encyclopedia of Thoughts Aphorisms 1973 . that is. and a very easy one. They can put those events together in their minds. If the correspondence between two things compared is. . Most people. . Part I Reasoning goes beyond the analysis of facts. if you told them a result. and argue from them that something will come to pass. however. who. This power is what I mean when I talk of reasoning backward . of course. This is a very useful accomplishment. Kasner. . but to propose and prove by Reason and Experiments: In order to which I shall premise the following Definitions and Axioms. the grand thing is to be able to reason backward. if you describe a train of events to them. James Mathematics and lmagination (p. but people do not practise it much .194 STATISTICALLY SPEA KlNG In solving a problem of this sort. Minnick. Romanoff. Holmes.

Probability and Scientific Inference Chapter VI1 (p. . they are not worth the search. Shakespeare. Scene 1’1. Dr. 115 The concept of randomness arises partly from games of chance. and when you have them.REASON 195 His reasons are as two grains of wheat hid in two bushels of chaff you shall seek all day ere you find them. Spencer Brown. The word ’random’ itself comea from the French rundir meaning to run fast or gallop. in Arthur Conan Doyle’s The Complete Sherlock Holmes The Adventure of the Stockbroker’s Clerk ELEMENTARY MY W A T S O ~ CLEARLY A CASEOF SUICIDE 6 Y A - v CIRCUS KM IF€-THW€K. William The Complete Works of William Shakespeare The Merchant of Venice Act I. The word ‘chance’ derives from the Latin cudentiu signifying the fall of a die. Watson. G. 35) Like all Holmes’ reasoning the thing seemed simplicity itself when it was once explained.

Unknown 196 . to recurse divine. Kelly-Bootle. 71) To iterate is human. Seymour Mindstorm (p. Papert. See RECURSIVE. recursion stands out as the one idea that is particularly able to evoke an excited response. Stan The Devil’s DP Dictionary Of all ideas I have introduced to children.RECURSION recursive adj.

Cardozo.243. there was a sensible straight line who was hopelessly in love with a dot. Benjamin N. 1921 Most economists t i k of God as working great multiple regressions in hn the sky. unknown Like father. like son. so I settled for t i instead. Caption on cartoon by unknown artist Regression begins with the unknown and ends with the unknowable. Jacob & Youngs v. Edgar R. Irrelevant and Irreverent June 1977 Once upon a time. Kent. Norton The Dot and the Line How did I get into this business? Well I couldn't understand multiple hs regression in college.REGRESSION Where the line is to be drawn the important and the trivial cannot be settled by a formula. Unknown 197 . 230 New York Reports 239. Juster. Across the Board The Three Rs of Economic Forecasting-Irrational. Fiedler. Unknown You've got to draw the line somewhere.

G. Kendall.198 STATISTICALLY SPEAKlNG The term “regression” is not a particularly happy one from the etymological point of view. 277) - . Yule. A n Introduction to the Theory of Statistics (p. n Paul Dick8on (See p. M. but it is so firmly embedded in statistical literature that we make no attempt to replace it by an expression which would more suitably express its essential properties.U.G. 230) Rowe’s Rule: the odds me six to five that the light at the end of the tunnel is the headlight of a oncoming train.

Quoted in John Gunther’s Taken at the Flood: The Story of Albert D.” Lasker. 1) Research is a way of taking calculated risks to bring about incalculable consequences. 66) 199 . it’s research. ”is something that tells you that a jackass has two ears. Green. Wilson Quoted in Alva Johnson’s The Legendary Mizners Chapter 4. Mizner.” he said. Celia The Decline and Fall o Science f Aphorisms (p. it’s plagiarism.RESEARCH The way to do research is to attack the facts at the point of greatest astonishment. Albert D. 96) If you steal from one author. Green. Lash (p. Celia The Decline and Fall o Science f Aphorisms (p. 1) ”Research. if you steal from many. The Sport (p.

John Outlines of Astronomy (p. with or without a teakettle.RESIDUALS Almost all the greatest discoveries in astronomy have resulted from the consideration of what we have elsewhere termed RESIDUAL PHENOMENA. 548) in Statistics show that seventy-fourper cent of wives open letters. Rex Stout (See p. Herschel. of such portions of the numerical or quantitative results of observations as remain outstanding and unaccounted for after subducting and allowing for all that would result from the strict application of known principles. of a quantitative or numerical kind. 258) - 200 . that is to say.

1) Sampling is the science and art of controlling and measuring the reliability of useful statistical information through the theory of probability. William G. with no worry about costs. Sampling Techniques (p. though. Cochran. 48) A person’s opinion of an institution that conducts thousands of transactions every day is often determined by the one or two encounters which he has had with the institution in the course of several years. 3) A good sample-design is lost if it is not carried out according to plans. 320) 201 . Sampling Techniques (p. William Edwards Some Theory of Sampling (p. and our actions are based to a very large extent on samples. William Edwards Sample Design in Business Research (p. William Edwards Some Theory of Sampling (p. one could always safely recommend fantastic plans of stratified sampling.SAMPLE After painstaking and careful analysis of a sample. Bloch. our attitudes. Cochran. you are always told that it is the wrong sample and doesn’t apply to the problem. William G. 241) If the cost of classifying a sampling unit were zero. The fact is. Arthur Murphy’s Law Fourth Law of Revision (p. Deming. Deming. . . 1 ) Our knowledge. Deming. that there is always a price to pay .

Quinn Psychological Bulletin Sampling in Psychological Research Volume 37. particularly in individual and social psychology. i They never would be missed-they never would be missed! Gilbert. . George New Grub Street The Way Hither (p. stick my hand in. Number 6. 7) . "Impossible to read them all. to realize that there exists a great deal of confusion in the minds of investigators as to the necessity of obtaining a truly representative sample. 33) . June 1940 (p. W. Sullivan. Arthur The Complete Plays of Gilbert and Sullivan The Mikado Act I He pointed to a heap of five or six hundred letters. Mosteller. from which the sample was drawn. I've got h m on the list . . It seemed to me that the fairest thing would be to shake them together. 1) Sampling is only one component.202 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING I've got a little list-I've got a little list . and laughed consumedly. 62) One does not have to read much of the current research literature in psychology. describing carefully how the sample was secured. 1954 (p. and take out one by chance. I would try a second time. F. weighting a sample appropriately is no more fudging the data than is correcting a gas volume for barometric pressure. Slonim. ." Gissing. McNemar. 33) Everyone who has poured a highball into the nearest potted plant after taking one sip has had some experience in sampling. . Journal o the American Statistical Association f Principles of Sampling Volume 49. If it didn't seem very promising. . .S. you know. Slonim. of that broad based field of scientific method known as statistics. Number 265. and restricting generalizations to the universe. often ill-defined. but undoubtedly the most important one. Moms James Sampling (p. Moms James Sampling (p.

Unknown The things directly observed are. theories.SAMPLE 203 Everybody’s taken samples.(See p. and if you’re the chef. 282) . It doesn’t have hs to be a random sample. . Whitehead. 23) Very dangerous things.Alfred North Science and the Modern World (p. it won’t be a representative sample. When you taste a bowl of soup. you take a sample. but it does have to be representative. t i could yield undesirable results. almost always. but if you don’t stir it up. only samples. Dorothy L Sayem .

like Spiders. Galton. Francis Inquiries into Human Faculty Statistical Methods Accordingly there are two main types of science. . 95 The object of statistical science is to discover methods of condensing information concerning large groups of allied facts into brief and compendious expressions suitable for discussion. spin webs out of themselves: but the course of the Bee lies midway. more strictly. 363) 204 . Bacon. I go about the streets of science collecting whatever I find. and then by her own power t u m s and digests them. and empirical science . Harris. amass only and use: the latter. she gathers materials from the flowers of the garden and the field. like the Ant. Errol E. Franfois Quoted i Rent5 Dubos' n Louis Pasteur: Free Lance of Science (p. . seeking laws which are generalizations from particular experiences and are verifiable (or. The Empirics. The possibility of doing this is based on the constancy and continuity with which objects of the same species are found to vary.SCIENCE They who have handled the Sciences have been either Empirics or Dogmatists. Magendie. 'probabilities') only by observation and experiment. With hook in hand and basket on my back. Hypothesis and Perception Prevalent Views of Science (p. . Francis The Novum Organon First Book. exact science . 25) I am a mere street scavenger of science. .

Karl R. Unknown . 282) .(See p. primarily. at high probabilities. well backed by experience. Theory without facts is bullshit. It aims at a high informative content.SCIENCE 205 Science does not aim. or very little. But a hyIjothesis may be very probable simply because it tells us nothing. The Logic of Scient$c Discovery (p. 399) Facts without theory is trivia. Popper.

Bloch. John Statistics (p. as individuals. occasionally show that they can stand erect and walk like men. To grasp and analyze mass-reactions. 9) Statistical tables are essentially specific in their meaning. R. The Development of Mathematics (p.STATISTICAL A knowledge of statistical methods is not only essential for those who present statistical arguments it is also needed by those on the receiving end. Allen. 33) The statistical method is social mathematics par excellence. anything may be proved by statistical methods. Bell.G.B. Bailey. and they require data that are uniformly specific in the same kind and degree. Statistics for Economists Chapter I (p. Cummings. a mastery of the modem statistical method is essential. it may be a necessary first step that half a dozen human beings in every hundred thousand understand the mass-reactions of creatures who. Arthur Murphy’s Law William and Holland’s Law (p. The Development of Mathematics (p. 582) Mankind in the mass is more despotically govemed by the laws of chance than it ever was by the decrees of any tyrant. whether of atoms or of human beings. Eric T. 582) If enough data is collected. W. Eric T. 47) 206 . If our shambling race is ever to get anything but suicidal destruction out of science.D. Bell.

Clyde V. omitting the cautions as to their incompleteness. Elements of Statistics Part I. Chapter I (p. 5 ) Since statistical significance is so earnestly sought and devoutly hn wished for by behavioral scientists. Journal of the American Statistical Association Obstacles to Accurate Statistics New Series Number 41. 1) . one would t i k that the U priori probability of its accomplishment would be routinely determined and well understood. and the nature of things can only be disproved by statistical methods. fidelity. 5 ) Some of the common ways of producing a false statistical argument are to quote figures without their context. Problems in the Collection and Comparability of International Statistics (p. 13) A statistical estimate may be good or bad. and who might otherwise try to make everyone excited about some sensational treatment effect that can well be ascribed to the ordinary variation in his experiment. Boudreau. accurate or the reverse. omitting the other side. to take these estimates referring to only part of a group as complete. and diligence. James H. MD Kiser. 1) We are far from having ”one statistical world”. Blodgett. 9) A useful property of a test of significance is that it exerts a sobering influence on the type of experimenter who jumps to conclusions on scanty data. Frank G. Arthur L. this last error being the one most often fathered on to statistics. statistics is held responsible. Arthur L. Elements of Statistics Part I. Quite surprisingly. William G. or to apply them to a group of phenomena quite different to that to which they in reality relate. Chapter I (p.STATISTICAL 207 In statistical work we should be able to presume upon honesty. and to argue hastily from effect to cause. Cochran. March 1898 (p. For all these elementary mistakes in logic. ti is not the case. Bowley. Experimental Design (p. to enumerate the events favorable to an argument. Bowley. but in almost all cases it is likely to be more accurate than a casual observer’s impression. hs Cohen. Cox. Gertrude M. Jacob Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences (p..

rather. Deming. it is Sharpened Thinking. or a good chemist.R. 1) Operational research is the application of methods of the research scientist to various rather complex practical operations . William Edwards Mechanical Engineering Some Principles of the Shewhart Method of Quality Control Volume 66. or a good economist. A paucity of numerical data with which to work is a usual characteristic of the operations to which operational research is applied. Richard The Blind Watchmaker Chapter 11 The method used by the scientist to find probable exact truth is what he calls "the method of least squares". Deming. Rambling through Science Gambling (p. de Leeuw. 86) The essence of life is statistical improbability on a colossal scale.T. or economics. already has a good start.V. The Scientific Approach (p. D. Cox. viii) . chemistry. William Edwards Paper presented at meeting of the Intemational Statistical Institute September 1953 Statistical research is particularly necessary in the government service because of the high level of quality and economy that the public has the right to expect in government statistics. J. it will extend your knowledge of engineering. The statistical method is a Mode of Thought. Dawkins. . 88) You need not be a mathematical statistician to do good statistical work. Deming. it is Power. Hinkley. and make it more useful. but you will need the guidance of a first class mathematical statistician. William Edwards Some Theory of Sampling (p.208 S TATIS TlCAL LY SPEAKING Statistical methods of analysis are intended to aid the interpretation of data that are subject to appreciable haphazard variability. D. A. because the statistical method is only good science brought up to date by the recognition that all laws are subject to the variations which occur in nature. Davies. . March 1944 The statistical method is more than an array of techniques. Your study of statistical methods will not displace any other knowledge that you have. A good engineer. Theoretical Statistics (p.L.

VII. that the Good Samaritian was a bad economist. 106) Mr. a mistake merely reinforced the belief in magic. is a mystery to the public. Thou shalt not apply large-sample approximations in vain. proving something no doubt-probably. Driscoll. Ely Essays in Economics Chapter 6 (p. . misleading. and like primitive magic it can never be proved wrong . Number 8. Gradgrind sat writing in the room with the deadly statistical clock. Chapter XI1 1 Thou shalt not hunt statistical sigruficance with a shotgun. Thou shalt not bear false witness against thy control-group. and induces everyone to try to impress their case on public attention by peppering it with statistics. Ely Essays in Economics Chapter 7 (p. model. Dickens. 1977 (p. Devons. 135) There are those who are so impressed by the notion that ’quantification’ is the only form of scientific knowledge.05 significance level. or simply ineffective picture that a statistical description of events may give. Thou shalt not covet thy colleague’s data. Devons. It is indeed because this view is so widespread. The Ten Commandments of Statistical Inference Volume 84. . Ix.STATISTICAL 209 Statistical magic. The oracle is never wrong. To such people the statistical picture is always to be preferred as the most meaningful and objective. like its primitive counterpart. significance. Charles The Work o Charles Dickens f Hard Times Book 1 . Thou shalt not infer causal relationships from statistical X. that they see no danger in the distorted. Thou shalt not make statistical inference in the absence of a III. Thou shalt honor the assumptions of the model. in the main. The Amm’can Mathematical Monthly I. Thou shalt not adulterate thy model to obtain significant results. VI. Iv. VIII. 11. that an argument stated in statistical terms has such a powerful influence in policy decision. Michael F. Thou shalt not worship the 0. V. 628) . Thou shalt not enter the valley of the methods of inference without an experimental design.

W. Albert The Evolution o Physics f Quanta (p. Chapter Four. When it asks for input.210 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING ”Try it yourself. H and press the ENTER key. Three Stones make six Houses. Likelihood (p. Number 2. There are only twenty-four possible permutations. H. type in I. 299) The primary function of a statistical consultant in a research organization is to furnish advice and guidance in the collection and use of numerical data to provide quantitative foundations for decisions. Six Stones make seven hundred and twenty Houses. Beyond this point. t i k of what the mouth cannot say and the ear cannot hear. A. we have no theory of statistical graphics .F.” Eco. . Churchill The Amm’can Statistician The Role of a Statistical Consultant i a Research Organization n Volume 2.” ”Holy Seraphim. Einstein. Four Stones make twenty-four Houses. Fienberg. ‘Two Stones make two Houses. . Stephen E. Seven stones make five thousand and forty Houses. Number 4. the probability. And they didn’t have computers. November 1979 (p.’ You know hn what this is called today? Factor analysis. xi) By applying the statistical method we cannot foretell the behavior of an individual in a crowd. But you may be disappointed. Five Stones make one hundred and twenty Houses. V. Eisenhart. 165) . 35) There comes a time in the life of a scientist when he must convince himself either that his subject is so robust from a statistical point of view that the finer points of statistical inference he adopts are irrelevant or that the precise mode of inference he adopts is satisfactory. Section Sixteen. The American Statistician Graphical Methods in Statistics Volume 13. Edwards. We can only foretell the chance. that it will behave in some particular manner. Umberto IZ pendolo di FoucauZt (p. What can you do with twenty-four names of God? You t i k our wise men hadn’t made that calculation? Read the Sqer hn Jesiruh.6) Although advice on how and when to draw graphs is available. April 1948 (p.

April 1954 (p. . 1980 (p. my various and laborious statistical conclusions with far more minuteness than I had dared to hope. Green. Greenwood. Fisher. . for the original data ran somewhat roughly. Number 2. Celia The Decline and Fall of Science Aphorisms (p.A. suggest that hidden causes have been at work . Circulation Biostatistics: How to Detect. 13) Approximately half the articles published in medical journals that use statistical methods use them incorrectly. . and Prevent Errors i n the Medical Literature Volume 61. preparing men's minds. American Scientist Magazine The Expansion of Statistics Volume 42. Correct. and I had to smooth them out with tender caution.1939 . Glantz. Letters. Galton. by purely mathematical reasoning. into the working part of going concems of the largest size. M. 522) to the paper Some Aspects of the Teaching of Statistics Volume 102. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Discussion (p. Sir Ronald A.STATISTICAL 211 This rather tumultuous overflow of statistical techniques from the quiet backwaters of theoretical methodology . . 4) Sometimes a David felled a Goliath of a statistical difficulty with a smooth stone. and labours o Francis Galton f Volume IIIA (p. Francis Quoted in Karl Pearson's The Lge. It might take a mathematician to prove how truly the stone was aimed. 277) I may be permitted to say that I never felt such a glow of loyalty and respect towards the sovereignty and magruficent sway of mathematical analysis when his answer reached me confirming. S. . 1) When people talk about 'the sanctity of the individual' they mean 'the sanctity of the statistical norm'. and shaping the institutions through which they work. .

212

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When we can’t prove our point through the use of sound reasoning, we fall back upon statistical “umbo jumbo’ to confuse and demoralize our opponents. Habera, Audrey Runyon, Richard P.
General Statistics Chapter 1 (p. 3)

Oh, the hell with!-it

did not change the statistical outcome. Heinlein, Robert A.
Time Enoughfor Love (p. 208)

Statistical methods are essentially methods for dealing with data that have been obtained by repetitive operations. Hoel, P.G.
Introduction to Mathematical Statistics (p. 1)

Acceptability of a statistically sigrzificunt result of an experiment on animal behavior in contradistinction to a result which the investigator can repeat before a critical audience naturally promotes a high output of publication. Hence, the argument that the techniques work has a tempting appeal to young biologists. Hogben, Lancelot
Statistical Theory (p. 27)

And when, in pursuit of the black cat of definitive truth, more refined techniques of statistical analysis, factor analysis, and so forth, are developed, the researcher is more and more distanced from the subject of his pursuit, and the real human world in which it exists. He raises as by a sort of mathematical levitation, into that other, finer sphere, where black cats are clawless, mewless and abstract . . . Hopkins, Harry
The Numbers Game: The Bland Totalitarianism Chapter 7 (p. 141)

Confidence in the omnicompetenceof statistical reasoning grows by what it feeds on. Hopkins, Harry
The Numbers Game: The Bland Totalitarianism Chapter 6 (p. 132)

Research in statistical theory and technique is necessarily mathematical, scholarly, and abstract in character, requiring some degree of leisure and detachment, and access to a good mathematical and statistical library. Hotelling, Harold
Memorandum to the Govemor of India 24 February, 1940

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The purely random sample is the only kind that can be examined with entire confidence by means of statistical theory, but there is one thing wrong with it. It is so difficult and expensive to obtain for many uses that sheer cost eliminates it. Huff, Darrell
How to Lie with Statistics (p. 21)

The use of available statistical records requires, first, that the social scientist be familiar with the better known sources of such data and that he display some ingenuity in discovering less obvious material. Jahoda, Marie Deutsch, Morton Cook, Stuart
Research Methods in Social Relations Basic Process Part I (p. 232)

Statistical laws enable the insurance company to function, and make a profit for its shareholders. But what does statistics do for the policyholder? Not one damn‘ thing! Jones, Raymond F.
The Non-Statistical Man (p. 32)

Sarah Bascomb was well aware that she didn’t live in the same world with her husband, and that made it rather nice, she thought. It would have been exceedingly boring if they both talked of nothing but expectancy tables and statistical probabilities, or the PTA and young Chuck’s music lessons. Jones, Raymond F. The Non-Statistical Man (p. 10)

. . . statistical techniques are tools of thought, and not substitutes for thought. Kaplan, Abraham
The Conduct o Inquiry f Chapter VI, Section 29 (p. 257)

Monte Carlo method [Origin: after Count Montgomery de Carlo, Italian gambler and random number generator (1792-1838)l. A method o jazzing up the action in certain statistical and number-analytic f environments by setting up a book and inviting bets on the outcome of a computation. Kelly-Bootle, Stan
The Devil’s DP Dictionary

214

STATISTICALLY SPEAKING

The first mathematical discussion of the Latin Square known to modem statisticians was given by Euler in 1882. Euler does not make any specific references to previous work and merely mentions the problem as having aroused interest, but since he entitled his paper "Recherche sur une nouvelle espice de cant! magique" he seems to have been under the impression that the problem was fairly new . . . Kendall, Maurice G .
The Amm'can Statistician
Who Discovered the Latin Square? Volume 11, Number 4, August 1948 (p. 13)

Archaeologists unearthed today in Babylon a remarkable set of clay tablets recording the minutes of the 1242 annual meeting of the Babylonical Statistical Association. King, Willford Journal o the American Statistical Association f
Consolidating Our Gains Volume 31, Number 193, March 1936 (p. 2)

It is all too easy to notice the statistical sea that supports our thoughts and actions. If that sea loses its buoyancy, it may take a long time to regain the lost support. Kruskal, William
The Amm'can Statistician Coordination Today: A Disaster or a Disgrace Volume 37, Number 3, 1983 (p. 179)

The applicability in psychology of certain of Professor R.A. Fisher's designs should be examined. Eventually, the analysis of variance will come into use in psychological research. Thus we must recognize, alongside of those natural laws which are based upon past experience without exceptions and are predicted universally, empirical generalizations admitting of possible or actual exception but nevertheless having a certain probability in the individual case. Let us call these last "statistical generalizations" since they are exhibited at their best when supported by statistical procedures. Lewis, Clarence Irving
Mind and the World-Order Chapter X (pp. 334-5)

. . . the statistical prediction of the future from the past cannot be generally valid, because whatever is future to any given past, is in tum past for some future. That is, whoever continually revises his judgment of the probability of a statistical generalization by its successively observed

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verifications and failures, cannot fail to make more successful predictions than if he should disregard the past in his anticipation of the future. This might be called the "Principle of statistical accumulation". Lewis, Clarence Irving
Mind and the World-Order Chapter XI (p. 386)

The statistical method is of use only to those who have found it out. Lippmann, Walter
A Prqace to Politics The Golden Rule and After (p. 92)

No matter what the statistical problem may be, it must proceed according to a plan. It is always a specific question which may be answered in several more or less accurate ways. The end in view and the reasoning which can be drawn upon will indicate in which manner and within which limits the answer is to be given. According to the choice made, it may be very simple or very complicated. But under all circumstances a definite plan providing for all the detail is an absolute prerequisite. Meitzen, August
History, Theory and Techniques of Statistics (p. 168)

No statistical judgment deals with the unit, but strictly and only with the aggregate. The variable elements of persons and things otherwise typical, that are enumerated, are always counted in a specific aggregate and under certain specific circumstances. The qualities of the objects themselves, so far as they are not typical, or the subject of the investigation, are completely unknown. Meitzen, August History, Theory and Techniques of Statistics (p. 163)

Statistical methods serve as land marks which point to further improvement beyond that deemed obtainable by experienced manufacturing men. Hence, after all obvious correctives have been exhausted and all normal logic indicates no further gain is to be made, statistical methods still point toward a reasonable chance for yet further gains; thereby giving the man who is doing trouble shooting sufficient courage of his convictions to cause him to continue to the ultimate gain, in spite of expressed opinion on all sides that no such gain exists. Meyers, G.J., Jr.
Transactions, American Society of Mechanical Engineers Discussion of E.G. Olds' On Some of the Essentials of the Control Chart Analysis Volume 64, July 1942

216

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A statistical analysis, properly conducted, is a delicate dissection of uncertainties, a surgery of suppositions. Moroney, M.J.
Facts from Figures Statistics Undesirable (p. 3)

The organized charity, scrimped and iced, In the name of a cautious, statistical Christ.

O’Reilly, John Boyle
In Bohemia In Bohemia

It’s been estimated that, because of the exponential growth of the world’s population, between 10 and 20 percent of all the human beings who have ever lived are alive now. If this is so, does this mean that there isn’t enough statistical evidence to conclusively reject the hypothesis of immortality? Paulos, John Allen Innumeracy (p. 99) [Florence Nightingale] Her statistics were more than a study, they were indeed her religion. For her Quetelet was the hero as scientist, and the presentation copy of his Physique sociale is annotated by her on every page. Florence Nightingale befived-and in all the actions of her life acted upon the belief-that the administrator could only be successful if he were guided by statistical knowledge. The legislator-to hs say nothing of the politician-too often failed for want of t i knowledge. Nay, she went further; she held that the universe-including human communities-were evolving in accordance with a divine plan; that it was man’s business to endeavour to understand this plan and guide his actions in sympathy with it. But to understand God’s thoughts, she held we must study statistics, for these are the measure of His purpose. Thus, the study of statistics was for her a religious duty. Pearson, Karl

Lqe, Letters and labours of

Francis Galton Volume I1 (p. 57)

There is much value in the idea of the ultimate laws being statistical laws, though why the fluctuations should be attributed to a Lucretian ’Chance’, I cannot say. It is not an exactly dignhed conception of the Deity to suppose him occupied solely with first moments and neglecting second and higher moments! Pearson, Karl
The History o Statistics in the 17th and 18th Centuries against the Changing f f Background o Intellectual, Scientific, and Religious Thought (p. 160)

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217

is a function of statistical method to emphasize that precise conclusions cannot be drawn from inadequate data. Pearson, E S .. Hartley, H.Q.
Biometrika Tables for Statisticians Volume I (p. 83)

. . . it

Statistical knowledge, though in some degree searched after in the most early ages of the world, has not till within these last 50 years become a regular object of study. Playfair, William Statistical Breviay Pronouncing each word with great deliberateness, Rep. Resent asked, “Are you now, or have you ever been, a member of the American Statistical Association?” Looking Rep. Resent straight in the eye, Minnie defiantly replied. “I refuse to answer on the grounds that it might incriminate me.” Proschan, Frank
Industrial Quality Control Investigation of Latin Squares Volume XI, Number 1, July 1954 (p.31)

For the first five months they were virtually identical, but for the past four, they showed an increasing difluence! With shaking fingers, I worked out a Standard Deviation on the sets of totals. There was no doubt: the difference between the Centre’s and CPPL’s totals were significant. Statistics don’t lie . . .

Puckett, Andrew
Bloodstains (p. 80)

“Why am I surrounded,” his usual understanding self today, ”by statistical illiterates?” Pynchon, Thomas
Gravity‘s Rainbow (p. 54)

That he must always be lovable, in need of her and never, as now, the hovering statistical cherub who‘s never quite been to hell but speaks as if he’s one of the most fallen. Pynchon, Thomas
Gravity‘s Rainbuzu (p. 57)

218

STATZSTZCALLY SPEAK"

Since no scientific hypothesis is ever completely verified, in accepting a hypothesis on the basis of evidence, the scientist must make the decision that the evidence is sufichtly strong or that the probability is suficimtly high to warrant the acceptance of the hypothesis. Obviously, the decision with respect to the evidence and how strong is "strong enough is going to be a function of the importance,in the typically ethical sense, of making a mistake in accepting or rejecting the hypothesis.
Rudner, R.
Scient@ Monthly Remarks on Value Judgment in Scientific Validation Volume 79, September 1954 (p. 152)

The emergency room was a madhouse. The stormy holiday roads had yielded more than the statistical expectation of traffic accidents.
Segal, Erich Man, Woman and Child Chapter 26 (p. 191)

You cannot escape the statistical method, so you may as well make friends with it. You think it is cold and inhuman and impersonal, but, as a matter of fact, it is fuller of red blood and human nature than half the descriptive literature in the world.
Stamp, Josiah
Some Economic Factors in Modern Life Chapter V 1 (p. 256) I7

It was demonstrated however very satisfactorily, that such a ponderous mass of heterogeneous matter could not be congested and conglomerated to the nose, whilst the infant was in Utero, without destroying the statistical balance of the foetus, and throwing it plump upon its head nine months before the time.
Steme, Laurence
Tristram Shandy Book IV

But lo! men have become the tools of their tools.
Thoreau, Henry David
Walden Economy

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219

Factor analysis is useful especially in those domains where basic and f u t u concepts are essentially lacking and where crucial experiments rifl have been difficult to conceive . . . They enable us to make only the crudest first map of a new domain. But if we have scientific intuition and sufficient ingenuity, the rough factorial map of a new domain will enable us to proceed beyond the factorial stage to the more direct form of psychological exploration in the laboratory. Thurston, L.L.
Psychological Bulletin Current Issues in Factor Analysis Volume 37, April 1940 (p. 189)

It is not wise for a statistician who knows factor analysis to attempt problems in a science which he has not himself mastered. Thurston, L.L.
Psychological Bulletin

Current Issues in Factor Analysis Volume 37, April 1940 (p. 235) A sort of question that is inevitable is: “Someone taught my students exploratory, and now (boo hoo) they want me to tell them how to assess sigrhcance or confidence for all these unusual functions of the data. (Oh, what can we do?)” To this there is an easy answer: TEACH them the JACKKNIFE. Tukey, John W. The American Statistician Volume 34, Number 1, February 1980 (p. 25) The critical ratio is Z-ness, But when samples are small, it is t-ness. Alpha means a, So does p in a way, And it’s hard to tell a-ness from p-ness.

uko n nnw
The problems of statistical physics are of the greatest in our time, since they lead to a revolutionary change in our whole conception of the universe. von Mises, Richard
Probability, Statistics, and Truth (p. 219)

I should like to give a word of warning concerning the approach to tests of sigrhcance adopted in this paper. It is very easy to devise different tests which, on the average, have similar properties, i.e., they behave satisfactorily when the null hypothesis is true and have approximately

Volume 17. Two such tests may. give very different results when applied to a given set of data. H. 31) Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write." he returned. The situation leads to a good deal of contention amongst statisticians and much discredit of the science of statistics.G. Wells. Quoted in Warren Weaver's article Statistics Scienti$c American January 1952 VERY IhJfERESTlNB - \ She was reading birth and death statistics. Andersen Series B. F. 1955 (p.Braude (See p. The appalling position can easily arise in which one can get any answer one wants if only one goes around to a large enough number of statisticians. 237) - . Box and Dr. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Discussion on the Paper by Dr. Suddenly she turned to a man near her and sadd. "have you tried toothpaste?" Jamb M. however.220 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING the same power of detecting departures from that hypothesis. "Do you know that every time I breathe a man dies?" "Very interestAng. Yates.

Daisy was a statistician for the Gallup Poll. 172) An utterly steady. Bailey. and people who didn’t. W. Saul H-g ( a 221) P 221 . Hilaire The Silence o the Sea f On Statistics (p. therefore. Cummings. Balchin. responsible to the point of grimness. John Statistics (p. people who knew about statistics. tabulation is a final process. He didn’t like the real statisticiansmuch because they argued with him.STATISTICIAN While.B.and he thought people who didn’t know any statistics were just animal life. the work of the untrained social investigator from that of the experienced scientific statistician. Belloc. Nigel The Small Buck Room (p. preceding even the formulation of the schedule. Bellow. 137) The statistician was let loose. distinguishes the work of the amateur from that of the expert. which should be determined by hs the character of the tables to be produced. 26) He divided people into statisticians. the formulation of the scheme of tabulation should be the initial process. He liked the middle group best. reliable woman. perhaps more than any other characteristic. Failure to observe ti fundamental principle in statistical practice.

as when we are reminded that the confidence coefficient refers. not at all comforting. The AmPrican Statistician Letters to the Editor Volume 23. February 1969 (p. 19) Perhaps statisticians themselves have not always fully recognized the limitations of their work. James H. Of course sometimes we use such statements to describe how nice a job we actually have. . Chapter I (p. Elements o Statistics f Part I. 1) [Statistics] We are constantly made aware of our awkward position. Blodgett. These thoughts have prompted the following. Elementay Decision Theoy (p. Bowley. may never make a correct decision. Chemoff. as when we tell our students. after all. to-day’s statistician will be more likely to say that statistics is concemed with decision making in the face of uncertainty. or some mere child will point out the errors in his statements and his conclusions and set people wondering of what value the rest of his work may be.E. although he may know exactly what he is talking about and what he says may be mathematically true. 35) . March 1898 (p. . Moses. Number 1. W. Coole. Arthur L. ”Look.” Yet every day we must live with the non-zero probability that we might be that statistician who will always base his conclusions on unusual assumptions. you don’t really have to be right. L.222 STATISTlCALLY SPEAKlNG The individual statistician must scan closely the authority on which he rests. definitions: A statistician is a mathematician who. and guard his statements with all the cautionary words which imperfect knowledge requires. more to the ’lifework of the statistician’ than to any particular interval. Journal of the American Statistical Association Obstacles to Accurate Statistics New Series Number 41.P. H. 13) Years ago a statistician might have claimed that statistics deals with the processing of data . you must only be correct.

However. he is frequently adept at discovering and measuring errors in data and determining the source of the errors.STATZSTZCZAN 223 The statistician accepts in any engagement certain responsibilities and obligations to his client and to the people that he works with. William Edwards Sample Design in Business Research (p. It is important that he clanfy the various responsibilities at the outset of the study. Deming. Number 2. engineering. the statistician ceases to be a statistician. April 1948 (p. 1942-1945 Volume 75. 321) [Statistician] A figure head. In the first place. William Edwards Journal of the Amm'can Statistical Association Quoted in W. business. He avoids drawing wrong conclusions from data whether the data be good or bad. Evan Esar's Comic Dictionary . physics. 10) A statistician's responsibility is not confined to plans: he must also seek assurance of cooperation in field and office. 16) The only useful function of a statistician is to make predictions. Deming. Esar. Deming. also with the interpretation of the results. William Edwards Sample Design in Business Research (p. William Edwards The American Statistician On the Classification of Statisticians Volume 2. he is the architect of a survey or experiment. Number 370. Wallis' The Statistical Research Group. Deming. and maintain constant touch with the work. etc. Deming. 8) The minute a statistician steps into the position of the executive who must make decisions and defend them. sociology. William Edwards Some Theory of Sampling (p.A. It is his business to fit the various skills together to make them effective. and because he acquires a broad knowledge in many fields. because of the high transferability of the statistician's mathematical techniques. 13) It should be emphasized that the statistician is not necessarily abler at handling data than his colleagues trained in economics.June 1980 (p. and thus to provide a basis for action.

The Design of Experiments (p. Joseph L. Fisher. 1) The statistician cannot excuse himself from the duty of getting his head clear on the principles of scientific inference. 5) The statistician cannot evade the responsibility for understanding the process he applies or recommends. Evan Esar's Comic Dictionay Too often. October 1967 (p. Evan Esar's Comic Dictionay [Statistician] A specialist who assembles figures and then leads them astray. performs standard calculations. in many fields of science. D. Esar. Finney. Fleiss. the statistician is regarded as someone who comes on stage after data have been collected. 1982 (p. and then departs. So of course his design Was a Hebro-Greco-Latin square. 49) . The Amm'can Statistician Letters to the Editor Volume 21. but equally no other thinking man can avoid a like obligation. i The Design of Experiments (p. Statistics in Medicine The Questioning Statistician Volume' 1.224 STATISTICALLY S P E A K " [Statistician] A matter-of-fact specialist. Had five factors he wished to compare. Evan Esar's Comic Dictionay [Statistician]A man who believes figures don't lie. Esar. delivers a verdict 'Signrficant' or 'Not Signrficant'. Sir Ronald A. Fisher. but admits that under analysis some of them won't stand up either. Levels of each were nine. Esar. S r Ronald A. 2) An Israeli statistician named Hare. Number 4.J.

He’d measure the skewness. Joseph L. Number 4 October 1967 (p. From the lx’s of the life table. The American Statistician Letters to the Editor Volume 21. Joseph L. Who had a nonnormal neurosis. W are not concemed with the very poor. She’d find life expectations. The American Statistician Letters to the Editor Volume 21. They are unthinkable. E M . Galton. 49) There was a statistician from Needham. And also the data’s kurtosis.October 1967 (p. He’d never subtract an extra degree of freedom. Fleiss. There was a statistician from Knossus. Joseph L. Yet his embarrassed confession Was that. 49) .. Who’d never look at populations unstable. Number 4 October 1967 (p. The American Statistician Letters to the Editor Volume 21. and only e to be appreciated by the statistician or the poet. Forster.STATlSTlClAN There was a biometrician named Mabel. Fleiss. 225 Fleiss. Using intricate relations. With techniques of newness. in linear regression. his clients would heed him. Francis Memories o My Life f Chapter XXI . Who was so bright. Number 4. Howards End Chapter 6 Statistician-a term that is more or less equivalent to that of ”Statesman”. 49) .

the philosopher talks about them. Hopkins. The mathematician develops its formal consequences.205) . The mathematician develops symbolic tools without worrying overmuch what the tools are for. Most statisticians deplore the fact. and there is that Other. I deeply regret to say that the situation has changed so much for the worse that the journals devoted to mathematical statistics are now completely unreadable. Rational World to which the better statisticians have already been called. Maurice G. Each does his job better if he knows something about the work of the other two. but even he wrote in the tradition of English mathematics. Karl Pearson was trained in mathematics. Statistical Papers in Honour of George Snedecor (p. "You are a blunt man.226 STATlSTlCALLY SPEAKlNG The mathematician. the statistician applies the work of the mathematician and the philosopher describes in general terms what this application consists in. but they were not great creative mathematicians. Science Kinds of Probability Volume 129. Finer. theoretical statistics in the forties could be understood by anybody with moderate mathematical attainment. 29) The early statisticians of the present century were competent at mathematics." he said. and the philosopher do different things with a theory of probability. criticized his predecessors for the clumsiness of their style." Jones. Good. we find ourselves caught up in the new contemporary dualism. The Non-Statistical Mnn (p. say at the first year undergraduate level. the statistician uses them. for a statistician. Kendall. the statistician. but Edgeworth was a classical scholar and Yule an engineer by training. 134) Magruder smiled and settled back in a chair opposite Bascomb. with few exceptions. Harry The Numbers Game: The Bland Totalitarianism Chapter 6 (p. "I find the uncertainties of their profession ordinarily extends to their common speech. verbalising. 443) Increasingly. Fisher. I. which does not care much about extreme generalizationor extreme rigor as long as it gets the right answer to its problems. impressionistic.J. human old world down there. but there is not very much they can do about it.Raymond F. Communications between the two can be tenuous. The consequence was that. there is the muddling-on. who wus a creative mathematician. February 20.1959 (p.

In other words. Journal o the Royal Statistical Society f Discussion on Paper by D . 120) There is more than a germ of truth in the suggestion that.1950 The statistician's job is to draw general conclusions from fragmentary data.6 cases out of 10 the lady's smile disappears. Too often the data supplied to him for analysis are not only fragmentary but positively incoherent. W. D. as an initial conversational ice-breaking. and Henry Adams 1967 (p. Even the most kindly statistician swears heartily under his breath whenever this happens. 416) A couple of government statisticians recently threw dust on the wedding ring business by coming right out with the fact that for every male there are 1. so that he can do next to nothing with them. M. . 440) An occupational hazard to which we statisticians are exposed occurs in the context of a social occasion. she tums to my rival on her other side. and. . . It is for someone else to say what decisions should be made with [inferential] . . perhaps a dinner party.J. she tums to me with a winning smile and says: "Now tell me what is it you do?" We must tell the truth. 1968 (p. Volume 30.J. misunderstood dignity. M. Moroney. It's about time they stop shoving the American taxpayer behind decimal points. Kemdge. Collier's The AVERAGE STATISTICIAN June 17. liberty and individuality are likely to be emasculated. it is the statistician's job to inform not to decide. William American Scientist Magazine Statistics.let us say.03females. Facts from Figures Statistics Undesirable (p. for in 8. Moroney. Miksch. so I reply that I am a statistician. of course. Moliere. 1) . ideally. and I attack the fried chicken in lonely.Marshall and Professor Olkin r Series B. Facts from Figures What Happens When We Take a Sample (p. Kruskal. That usually ruins a fine conversation.F.F. in all society where statisticians thrive. seated next to a charming lady whom I have just met. information.STATISTICIAN 227 It is not primarily the responsibility of a statistician to make decisions for other people-not in general at any rate . I am.

Number 245. Management's big question is no longer "What can the statistician do for us that we can't do just as well ourselves?". The Amm'can Statistician The Statistician and Modem Management Volume 2 Number 6. Journal of the American Statistical Association On a Unique Feature of Statistics (Presidential Address to the American Statistical Association. 10) . The characteristic which distinguishes the present-day professional statistician. 241) . December 1948) Volume 4 . 253) Most of you would as soon be told that you are cross-eyed or knockkneed as that you are destined to be a statistician . unemotional. Josiah Some Economic Factors in Modern Life Chapter VI11 (p. . Snedecor. as the job of finding the truth and explaining it continues to become more complex and more difficult. . The former keeps his finger on the pulse of Humanity . But. we are all statisticians nowadays.W. as a matter of fact. bloodless and steely-eyed. George Sarton on the History o Science f Quetelet (p. Sarton.228 STATIS TICALLY SPEAKING I like to t i k of the constant presence in any sound Republic of two hn guardian angels: the Statistician and the Historian of Science. December 1948 (p. . Stamp. is his interest and skill in the measurement of the fallibility of conclusions. . We are either forming opinions on other people's statistics. They are supposed to be cold. the question now is. G L . whether we like it or not.. March 1949 4 I sometimes t i k that statisticians do not deserve quite all the hard hn things that are said about them. 253) . management again casts a doubtful eye at the statistician. or we are providing the raw material of statistics. for a different reason. Josiah Some Economic Factors in Modern Life Chapter VI11 (p. "Do our statisticians have the tools and the capacity and the experience and the persistence and the breadth of vision to seek the truth and to know it when they have found it?" Seaton. . G. Stamp. .

” Thomsett. experiment.” one commented to the other. The distinguishing characteristic of the true scientist is not the fact that he employs scientific methodology. The scientific sequence-hypothesis. The History o Statistics f Introduction (p. Thurber. and test hypothesis-is now a familiar approach to problems. The Little Black Book o Business Statistics (p.STATISTICIAN 229 Statisticians have an understandable penchant for viewing the whole of the history of science as revolving around measurement and statistical reasoning. So it is with the statistician. “I never realized before how close we came to losing the Revolutionary War. James Further Fables of Our Times The Godfather and His Godchild .” the first one explained. Nearly everyone. Michael C. A mark of the true statistician is his special expertness at arranging an investigation and analyzing the result so as to yield the most reliable conclusions with minimum effect. Man wants a great deal here below and Women even more. ”If they’d had the budget to hire a statistician. they didn’t understand the risks. Number 5. they never would have declared independence. ”What do you mean?” “Well. with most of the risk evaluation work done by two employees. but rather his expertness with it. The Editors The American Statistician The Statistician and Everyday Affairs Volume 11. Stigler. Only a few of all those who use it are known popularly as scientists. draws conclusions from quantitative data. the subject of American history came up. During a break. Stephen M. 181) f Though statisticians in our time have never kept the score.1948 The accounting department was working on a marketing plan for the coming year. scientists included. 1) Everyday life is influenced more and more each day by decisions based on quantitative information.

and perhaps even guidance-those who suggested this title to me must have hoped for such-even though occasional indulgences in such actions by statisticians has undoubtedly contributed to the characterization of a statistician as a man who draws straight lines from insufficient data to foregone conclusions! Tukey. Number 1.’ Data analysis must progress by approximate answers. John W. TOOoften the statistician looks upon himself as a guardian of the proven truth . which is often vague. Tukey. . . Number 289. March 1962 (pp. but it’s better than we used to use!”) Tukey. December 1954 (p. Journal of the American Statistical Association Where do We Go From Here? Volume 55. which can always be made precise. 86) Predictions. Tukey. at best. prophecies. 80) (The experimental statistician dare not shrink from the war cry of the analyst ”Only a fool would use it.230 STATlSTlCALLY SPEAKlNG Too often the client (whether or not a social scientist) looks to the statistician as a man who applies the final stamp of approval-perhaps by saying. John W. March 1960 (p.718) The most important maxim for data analysis to heed. Journal o the American Statistical Association f Unsolved Problems of Experimental Statistics Volume 49. uko n nnw .Number 268. since its knowledge of what the problem really is will at best be approximate. Ray’s Trends in Social Science Statistical and Quantitative Methodology (p. John W. there will be 4 minority reports. Annals of M a t h t i c a l Statistics The Future of Data Analysis Volume 33. 13-4) It is necessary to add that statisticians themselves are not infallible. and one which hs many statisticians seem to have shunned is t i : ’Far better an approximate answer to the right question. than an exact answer to the wrong question. John W. unknown If there are three statisticians on a committee. ”This result is significant”. Quoted in Donald P.

” Unknown A statistician is a person who draws a mathematically precise line from an unwarranted assumption to a foregone conclusion. most passionate statistician west of the Vistula. Lately the relationships in her life-aside from a four-way interaction that was almost impossible to interpret-had been lacking in significance. Stretching her sleek limbs. the statistician replied. She did not know the name of the transformation that had come over her since meeting Log. square . Unknown ”Multiple births are more frequent in larger families. The other men she knew were structural zeros. Her last lover. she joined the saturated models who already lounged on the exercise floor. really. but he had tumed cruel and selfish. Mean. the new. but factors beyond her analysis had taken possession of her life.STATZS TZCZAN 231 I all the statisticians in the world were laid end to end-it f good thing. As the group moved through a series of unorthodox patterns on the floor (for a session with Log Linear was not restricted to hierarchical designs) she mused over the turbulent events of recent days. . was aroused from illicit daydreams of Graeco-Latin squares by the husky voice of Bruce ”Log” Linear. . The contrasts between Log and her were quite orthogonal. Unknown Svetlana Manova. any more than she could analyze the persistent departures from normality in some of her dependants. It was time to start working on Log Linear’s exercises. muscular (yet intellectual) Aerobics instructor at the swank Goodness of Fit health club.” declares a statistician. Unknown A statistician and the statistician’s wife were marooned on a remote island. would be a Unknown A biostatistician talks statistics to the biologist and biology to the statistician. ”Assuming we have a boat . It’s mighty hard to fool these statisticians. for reasons she could not articulate. a task from which she had been deviating randomly. When the wife asked how they were going to escape the island and get home. the tallest. they just discuss women. had been kind and generous when they were first associated. but when he meets another biostatistician. apparently regressing toward the mean. the fabulously wealthy Italian recording tycoon “Disk” Riminate.

And then Log had come into her life. Unknown Flip a coin 100 times. Part 10 (p.’’ Wan& Chamont Sense and Nonsense of Statistical lnfuences (p. 154) . . She never had any trouble rejecting their hypothesis. who were classmates in high school. He showed a reprint to his former . . talking about their jobs. Even then. she wondered how it would feel to nest her effects within his. the statistician. the movement of the last hundred years is all in favour of the statistician. Wealth and Happiness of Mankind Chapter Nine. He feared that in the end he would be driven to a breakdown. . her life was becoming less significant. unknown to Svetlana. Log was analyzing a related problem. and at the same time a gentlemanly kurtosy. and. . instead of always crossing them . There was a skewness about his attitude.G. what a rare event.232 STATISTZCALLY S P E A K ” errors. Assume that 99 heads are obtained. as always happens in such cases. Short of doing her exercises for her. He knew that he needed a woman like her. but as time passed she felt she was gradually losing her residual degrees of freedom. comes that scavenger of adventurers. 391) Behind the adventurer. Feeling his eyes on her as she obliquely rotated her lovely torso.” But if you ask a probabilist.o r any other man-could ever understand Manova.G. Part 10 (p. 390) There is a story about two friends. Wells. One of them became a statistician and was working on population trends. he could not have been more attentive. the speculator. The Work. H. or eluding their predictably normal plots. H. but he didn’t know if h e . The Work. He had been devoting more time and attention to statistics (her statistics) than he ever had anticipated doing. He wasn’t like the others. the response is likely to be: ”It is a biased coin. she termed them. If you ask a statistician. that made her want to know what it would be like to know him fully. he may say: ”Wooow. Wells. Unknown It is difficult to determine what a statistician is and what a statistician is not. Wealth and Happiness of Mankind Chapter 9.

February 1960 Since the statistician can seldom or never make experiments for himself.812) It i now proved beyond s doubt that smoking is one of the leading causes of statistics.U. . Hs classmate was a bit incredulous and was not quite sure whether to i statistician was pulling his leg. Communications in Pure and Applied Mathematics The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Mathematics in the Natural Sciences Volume XIII.STATZSTZCZAN 233 classmate. ”How can you know that?” was h s query.” Wiper.’’ said the classmate. The reprint started.” ”Well now you are pushing your joke too far. Yule. ”this is n. Journal o the Royal Statistical Society f On the Theory of Correlation Volume LX. 248) . as usual with the Gaussian distribution and the statistician explained to his former classmate the meaning of the symbols for the actual population. “surely the population has nothing to do with the circumference of the circle. Eugene P. and discuss as best he can the relations of a whole group of changes . Number 1-4. G. for the average population. . Fletcher Xaebel(See p.” said the statistician. December 1897 (p. ”And what is this symbol i here?” “Oh. he has to accept the data of daily experiences. and so on.” “What is that?” ”The ratio of the circumference of the circle to its diameter.

and methods for applying the plasters of fact. fancying that education would find the surest bottom there. 248) . Worthington Ford supplied any material that curiosity could imagine for filling the vast gaps of ignorance. It w s the a hs Science of Vital Energy in relation with time. Adams. and the study proved the easiest he had ever approached. and of late t i radiating center of life has been steadily tending-together with every form of physical and mechanical energy/-toward mathematical expression. Number 4 November 1979 (p.115) f . Adams. Henry The Education o Henry Adams f Chapter 23 (p. 351) No honest historian can take part with-or against-the forces he has to study. To him even the extinction of the human race should be merely a fact to be grouped with other vital statistics. bottomless averages merely for the asking. . 447) History has never regarded itself as a science of statistics. . Advertisement Tke American Statistician Volume 33. and you thought 'impressive' statistics were 36-24-36. endless columns of figures. Henry The Education o H n y Adams f er Vis Interiae (p. At the Statistical Bureau. he plunged deep into statistics. Henry A ktter to A m e r i c a n Teachers o History (p. Even the Government volunteered unlimited statistics. Adams. 234 .STATISTICS Taking for granted that the altemative to art was arithmetic.

. and that no lie is so false or inconclusive as that which is based on statistics. M. ul innocent life. 235 Angell." Balchin. Jean Cool Memories Chapter 4 It has long been recognized by public men of all kinds. "Probably knows no statistics whatever. and informed by fairly good judgment. 11) Like dreams. that statistics come under the head of lying.S. Essays on Probability and Statistics (p. 9) "Organic chemist!" said Tilley expressively. persons. so many nuts and bolts made during December-they can be counted and new statistical facts are born. Hilaire The Silence o the Sea f On Statistics (p. fl of merriment and go. and the quantitative method is the victory of sterility and death. Hilaire The Silence o the Sea f On Statistics (p. Belloc. statistics are meaningless and many statisticians silenced. In so far as things. 170) Before the curse of statistics fell upon mankind we lived a happy. Nigel The Small Back Room (p. in so far as things are similar and definit-o workers over 25. 136) [Statistics] I t is concerned with things we can count. Belloc. Roger Lute Innings: A Baseball Companion Chapter 1 (p. Bartlett. . Baudrillard. are unique or ill-defined. 173) . Belloc. Hilaire The Silence o the Sea f On Statistics (p.STATZSTZCS Statistics are the food of love. 171) Statistics are the triumph of the quantitative method. statistics are a form of wish fulfillment.

Boorstin. statistics have tended to make facts into norms. Daniel J. which will very largely be drawn from the current facts of administration. The first requirement in using statistics is that the facts treated shall be reduced to comparable units. . Daniel J. Bernard. or by an employee unfamiliar with medicine. Charles Charles Booth’s London (p. . The Decline of Radicalism Chapter 1 The science of statistics is the chief instrumentality through which the progress of civilization is now measured and by which its development hereafter will be largely controlled. Boorstin. . Everyone familiar with hospitals knows what errors may mark the definitions on which statistics are based. For this reason pathological statistics can be valid only when compiled from data collected by the statistician himself. they are given a great role in medicine. have enlarged their dominion over the American consciousness by becoming the most powerful statement of the ”ought”4isplacers of moral imperatives. Daniel J.STATlSTlCALLY SPEAKING As for statistics. The Decline o Radicalism f Chapter I So far I speak only of impersonal statistics. either because the diagnosis is obscure. Boorstin. Claude An Introduction to the Study of Experimental Medicine (p. Now this is very often not the case in medicine. The names of diseases are very often given haphazard. 136) . personal ideals. and they therefore raise a medical question which we should examine here. Booth. or because the cause of death is carelessly recorded by a student who has not seen the patient. and unfulfilled objectives. 375) . . which first secured prestige here by a supposedly impartial utterance of stark fact. statistics. The Decline o Radicalism f Chapter I .

“Do you know that every time I breathe a man dies?“ “Very interesting. W talk by aggregates. which has only been tumed to proper account in modem times. sometimes very accurate. that whereas arithmetic attains exactness. Chapter I (p. Jacob M . 4) Statistics are for losers. 800 The science of statistics. Complete Speaker’s and Toastmaster‘s Library Business and Professional Pointmakers There’s too much abstract willing. 3) A knowledge of statistics is like a knowledge of foreign languages or of algebra. Elements of Statistics Part I. Bowman. Suddenly she tumed to a man near her and said. Buchner. Elements o Statistics f Part I. Arthur L. it may prove of use at any time under any circumstances.” he returned.STATISTICS 237 Great numbers are not counted correctly to a unit. e And think by systems and being used to face Our evils in statistics. has the great honor of having proved the existence of definite rules in a number of phenomena. Ludwig Force and Matter Free Will (p. statistics deals with estimates. purposing. In this poor world. 1. Scotty Sports Illustrated A Lot More Where They Come From April 2. Chapter I (p. are inclined To cap them with unreal remedies Drawn out in haste on the other side. they are estimated. Browning. 1973 She was reading birth and death statistics. and very often sufficiently so for their purpose. Arthur L. but never mathematically exact. Bowley. which had hitherto been looked upon as merely accidental or as owing their origin to an arbitrary power. hs and we might perhaps point to ti as a division between arithmetic and statistics. Elizabeth Barrett The Complete Poetical Works o Elizabeth Barrett Browning f Aurora Leigh Eighth Book. “have you tried toothpaste?” Braude. Bowley. 367) .

. Carlyle. and dogmatism and to increase the domain in which decisions are made and principles are formulated on the basis of analyzed quantitative facts. and abuse of (p. Chapter I1 . outright liar that much easier. arbitrary or premature decisions. misuse." says he. . relevance.December 1937 (p. misues. and truth are all checked. a wise hand is requisite for carrying it on. Robert W. Number 200. any more than others are. rule-of-thumb. use. and abuse of (p. Thomas English and Other Critical Essays Chartism. but to save himself from having ignorance foisted on him. Byron. 244) . and become good for something. the worship of statistics has had the particularly unfortunate result of making the job of the plain. Thomas Critical and Miscellaneous Essays Chartism. one may hope. Burnan. Conclusive facts are inseparable from unconclusive except by a head that already understands and knows. Tom The Dictionary of Misinformation Statistics. will improve gradually. "looks at Statistics. Meanwhile. but it is not to be carried on by steam. Statistics. use. tradition. Lord The Complete Poetical Works of Byron Don Juan Canto the Eighth. this science. Journal of the American Statistical Association The Whole Duty of the Statistical Forecaster Volume 32. 588 Statistics is a science which ought to be honourable. it is to be feared the crabbed satirist was partly right. I1 Statistics. tactics. 246) So that I do not grossly err in facts." Carlyle.636) No matter how much reverence is paid to anything purporting to be "statistics." the term has no meaning unless the source. not to get knowledge. prejudice. the basis of many most important sciences. XXIV. 1. as things go: "A judicious man. . Burgess. politics. and geography .238 STATlSTlCALLY SPEAKlNG The fundamental gospel of statistics is to push back the domain of ignorance. . Burnan. Tom The Dictionary of Misinformation Statistics.

254) Statistics are proverbially dry-forgive me if I say they are far better dry than "wet"-but to give them optimum moisture content is simply a matter of mastering fundamentals that no one should hold in contempt. . apprenticed in the scullery. Jacob Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences Preface to the Original Edition Conversation and statistics.H. and requires a verbal-intuitive exposition. Quoted in Harry Harrison's Astounding Probability Zero (p. Changing Times Defend Yourself Against Statistics March 1956 Beginning softly. Crichton. though not quite scripture. however. statistics. .STATISTICS 239 "And on the dead level our pace i-" the younger suggested. Michael Rising Sun (p. rich in redundancy and with many concrete illustrations. Cohen. Theodore R. that the typical behavioral scientist approaches applied statistics with considerable uncertainty (if not actual nervousness). Number 197. Davis. 329) I have learned repeatedly. but now risen housekeeper. R. March 1939 (p. statistics has long been handmaid to these exact sciences. March 1937 (p. Joseph S . Journal of the American Statistical Association Statistics and Social Engineering Volume 32. for he s? was weak in statistics. Cogswell. Coats. Journal of the American Statistical Association Science and society Volume 34. Number 205. eating with the family. Carroll. Lewis The Complete Works o Lewis Carroll f A Tangled Tale Knot I Elsior . can be quoted by the devil. 6) . 3) Statistics show that you have nothing to worry about. Really boring. and left all such details to his aged companion.

Devons. where the lessons of history. that it describes things in quantitative terms. hs Devons. the heightening of poetic vision. 105) . Big Science (p. Derek John Little Science. Ely Essays in Economics Chapter 6 (p. measured by the number of lines of poetry written to the beloved-I won’t go on. Ely Essays in Economics Chapter 6 (p. and the secrets of the future were concealed in mysterious characters. no doubt you can t i k of further hn measures. A record of heart beats per minute. Each of the three groups has gone its own way. least squares. the number of calories consumed per day. Ely Essays in Economics Chapter 6 ( p . or-what is worse-not rediscovering them. Deming. iv) f I cannot oscillate a time series or properly analyse a variance . and curve fitting. and second. 5) His passion was to count everything and reduce it to statistics. 105) The two most important characteristics of the language of statistics are first.240 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING Statistics are like the hieroglyphics of ancient Egypt. de Jonnes. William Edwards Statistical Adjustment o Data (p. 33) Unfortunately and inadvertently. the stammering and hesitation in speech. Moreau k l h e n t s de Statistique (p. intellectual gulfs have grown up between writers in statistics. 106) The experience of falling in love could be adequately described in terms of statistics. Devons. . rediscovering developments long since discovered by the others. the precepts of wisdom. that it gives t i description an air of accuracy and precision. de Solla Price.

Ely Essays in Economics Chapter 7 (p. I might add. Ely Essays in Economics Chapter 7 (p. . precision and accuracy. and statistics’. . And statistics. Ely Essays in Economics Chapter 6 (p. and even then. ’statistics are only for the statistician’. 134) What more tempting facade of rationality than the portrayal of some statistics that seem to point to policy in one direction rather than another? Devons. only for the good statistician. . imprecision and inaccuracy are fully taken into account? It is because this task is so difficult and so rarely achieved that statistics are frequently referred to as ‘the hard facts’. Ely Essays in Economics Chapter 7 (p. Devons. however uncertain. Ely Essays in Economics Chapter 6 (p. 134) . and yet we talk of three kinds of lies-’lies. so I decided to toss a coin and assume inflationary tendencies if it came down heads and deflationary if it came down tails’ . can apparently provide some basis. may play an important role in decision-making. in such a way that the subjective element of judgment. 111) . 118) No Chancellor of the Exchequer could introduce his proposals for monetary and fiscal policy in the House of Commons by saying ’I have looked at all the forecasts. Devons. . Ely Essays in Economics Chapter 7 (p.STATISTKS 241 How to use a language which by its very nature implies objectivity. damn lies. indeed eagemess. some another. 135) . Devons. some go one way. . there seems to be striking similarities between the role of economic statistics in our society and some of the functions which magic and divination play in primitive society. . Devons. 134) This exaggerated influence of statistics resulting from willingness. Devons. to be impressed by the ’hard facts’ provided by the ’figures’.

Dewey. Esar. Evan Esar's Comic Dictiona y [Statistics] Data of a numerical kind looking for an argument. Edgeworth. 346) There are lies. Esar. that it is never possible to be sure that one is operating with figures of equal weight. the methods of statistics are so variable and uncertain. Evan Esar's Comic Dictiona y [Statistics] The science that can prove everything except the usefulness of statistics. Evan Esar's Comic Dictionary . 273) [Statistics] Fiction in its most uninteresting form. but past history reversed. Esar. 167) On the other hand. as has been well said. Disraeli. I (p. Esar. so apt to be influenced by circumstances. Benjamin Quoted in George Seldes' The Great Quotations In short. Esar.242 STATlSTICALLY SPEAK" Factual science may collect statistics. Ellis. and church statistics. Evan Esar's Comic Dictiona y [Statistics] The only science that enables different experts using the same figures to draw different conclusions. and make charts. John Art as Expm'ence Chapter XIV (p. Statistics reigns and revels in the very heart of Physics. Francis Ysidro Journal of the Royal Statistical Society On the Use of the Theory of Probabilities in Statistics Relating to Society January 1913 (p. Havelock The Dance of Life Chapter VII. damned lies. But its predictions are. Evan EsarS Comic Dictiona y [Statistics] The science of producing unreliable facts from reliable figures. Conclusion.

Linton C . 3) f "I was counting the waves." replied Amory gravely. 62-3) . Scott This Side o Paradise (p." Fitzgerald. 1) I could prove God statistically. Galton. November 1979 (p. 14) Statistical procedure and experimental design are only two different aspects of the same whole. Gallup. "I'm going in for statistics. Freeman.STATISTICS 243 You complain that your report would be dry. 42) Some people hate the very name of statistics. Sankhya First Indian Statistical Conference. William Journal o the Royal Statistical Society f Nightingale on Quetelet Series A. and that whole is the logical requirements of the complete process of adding to natural knowledge by experimentation. The dryer the better. 1938 Volume 4. Statistics should be the dryest of all reading. 144) In the original sense of the word. Whenever they are not brutalized. Sir Ronald A. 244) f We are all victims of statistics. its function was to be the eyes and ears of the central government. Francis Natural Inheritance Normal Variability (pp. Issue 2. Fisher. but delicately handled by the higher methods. 1938 (p. 1981 (p. and are warily interpreted. Fan. Sir Ronald A. 'Statistics' was the science of Statecraft: to the political arithmetician of the eighteenth century. The Design o Experiments (p. George Omni Volume 2. Fisher. but I find them fl of ul beauty and interest. Elementary Applied Statistics (p. their power of dealing with complicated phenomena is extraordinary. F. They are the only tools by which an opening can be cut through the formidable thicket of difficulties that bars the path of those who pursue the Science of man.

Unfortunately when they are of long standing they become fixed rules of life. despite your nasty little secret thoughts. 3. They cannot endure the idea of submitting their sacred impressions to cold-blooded verification. 498) Most of us have some idea of what the word statistics means. . Richard P. those who are not accustomed to original inquiry entertain a hatred and a horror of statistics. . is a good deal more often than the average wife enjoys. O r answer would be on the right lines. 3) Statistics is the refuge of the uninformed. diagrams and graphs in economic and scientific publications. but I do very much enjoy a more than occasional roll in the hay. Consequently. Richard Modem Statistics (p. Habera. to start with. . 11) Statistics is ’hocuspocus’ with numbers. We should probably say that it has something to do with tables of figures. . George New Grub Street The Sunny Way (p. bits of jokes. Galton. 27-8) . 3) . Ernest K. and assume a prescriptive right not to be questioned. Gann. and with a host of other seemingly unrelated matters of concem or unconcem . . Habera. bits of foolery. I do not hop into bed with every man I meet. Gissing. Audrey Runyon. p. Audrey Runyon. Brain 2000 (pp. Rwue de l’lnstitut InternutionuIe de Stutistique. Mother dear. bits of statistics. 1935).244 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING General impressions are never to be trusted. General Statistics Chapter 1 (p.F. Goodman. Francis Annals of Eugenics Quote on page facing the Table of Contents No. with the cost of living . 288. we seem a little vague. which. if I have my statistics right. General Statistics Chapter 1 (p. Willcox. Nor should we u be unduly upset if. vol. . Statisticians themselves disagree about the definition of the word: over a hundred definitions have been listed (W. Richard P.

.STATISTICS 245 Legal proceedings are like statistics. 1985 (p. Leslie Journal of the American Statistical Association Some U e of Statistics in Executive Control ss Volume 31. Hand. Heinlein. a calculating age has stabbed it to the heart with innumerable dagger-thrusts of statistics. you can prove anything. William Keith Australia (p. Number 193. Chapter 1 (p. Arthur Airport Part 3. 36) In 1906 he started on statistics. Number 193. 385) 1 Oratory is dying. Robert A. . F. Psychological Medicine The Role of Statistics in Psychiatry Volume 15. Simplicity of treatment and presentation is a requisite in the making of statistics useful in executive control. complicated statistical methods rarely are necessary and always are to be avoided if possible.. 36) . The latter enables one to see further and to make clear objects which were diminished or obscured by distance. Hayford. If you manipulate them.J. 146) Statistics has been likened to a telescope. Hayford. and chance by mail . To Sail Beyond the Sunset Chapter 10 (p.. D. March 1936 (p. probability. Leslie - Joiirnal of the American Statistical Association Some U e of Statistics in Executive Control ss Volume 31. neither statistics nor the statistician can ordinarily give the executive the final answer to his problems. Hancock. The former enables one to discem structure and relationships which were distorted by other factors or obscured by random variation. 471) In the everyday use of statistics in business. Hailey. 147) . F. March 1936 (p.

W. The rings show it was sixty years old. Sampson. Tales of 0. Sports. 0.. but the man of the future is the man of statistics and the master of economics. I think statistics are just as lovely as they can be. 95) For the rational study of the law the black-letter man may be the man of the present. Pratt.” says Mrs. 0. near Newcastle. Robert Quoted in J.246 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING ”Let us sit on this log at the roadside. If an artery is cut. . Simpson. Jr. The Harvard Law Review Path of the Law Volume 10. the lowest grade of information that exists. H e n y The Handbook of Hymen The word statistics has at least six different meanings in current use.” Henry. Mrs. A box four feet long. Hogben.1897 Don’t waste time arguing about the merits or demerits of something if you can gather some statistics that will answer the question realistically. O. ”is statistics more wonderful than any poem.M. At the depth of two thousand feet it would become coal in three thousand years. Holmes. The deepest coal mine in the world is at Killingworth. three feet wide. Hooke. “Them ideas is so original and soothing.” says I. H e n y The Handbook of Hymen ”What you’ve got. It is in the glorious columns of ascertained facts and legalized measures that beauty is to be found. In this very log we sit upon. and some Other Things .” says Idaho.” ”GO on Mr. and two feet eight inches deep will hold one ton of coal. Tales of 0.” says I. Lancelot Science in Authority The Present Crisis in Statistical Theory (p. A man’s leg contains thirty bones. “is statistics. . The Tower of London was bumed in 1841. compress it above the wound. Tanur‘s Statistics: A Guide to the Unknown Statistics. four in the context of statistical theory alone. They poison your mind .” Henry. ”and forget the inhumanity and ribaldry of the poets.

But statistics must not be sedatives. in fact. Robert Quoted in J. Sports. we simply don’t COUNT. yet it cannot be pinned on you. Lyndon B. Woman’s Realm . 232) As they put it in Greek. it was regarded ”introducing unnecessary confusion into otherwise plain issues”. Harry The Numbers Game: The Bland Totalitarianism The Sterile Circle (p.STATlS TlCS 247 Do remember that your experiment is merely a hodgepodge of statistics. Horace The Satires and Epistles of Horace Epistle I To Lollius Maximus A well-wrapped statistic is better than Hitler’s ”big lie”. Tanur‘s Statistics: A Guide to the Unknown Statistics. Johnson. 23 March. Huff. it misleads. your experience may be far less dependable than a good set of statistics. Jones. Palmer 0. 9) The economy was never stronger in your lifetime. and some Other Things You can’t argue with statistics. consisting of those cases that you happen to remember. 385) Statistics can be used to support anything--especially statisticians. We consume. Hooke. Darrell How to Lie with Statistics (p. The Scientific Monthly Modem Statistical Science and its Function in Educational and Psychological Research June 1951 (p.J. Economic power is important only as it is put to human use. Hopkins.M. generally you can’t even get at them. Speech at United Automobile Worker’s Convention Atlantic City. Johnson. 1964 There was a time when statistics as a tool in experimentation was almost completely ignored by the experimenter. Because these are necessarily small in number and because your memory may be biased toward one result or another. N. Franklin P.

2) It is now proved beyond doubt that smoking is one of the leading causes of statistics. Maurice G. benchmarks. statistics. 15) In statistics. Science Editorial 14 January 1994 What is there about the word "statistics" that so often provokes strained silence? Kruskal. I'm afraid.Noitall. Stuart. DP dictionary entries. you do not have any understanding of r statistics. Fletcher Reader's Digest December 1961 Science. Kelly-Bootle. The Advanced Theory of Statistics Volume I (p. Raymond F. 416) . Jones. and Henry Adams (p. Jr. Knebel. Raymond F. 17) The basic sequence. The Non-Statistical Man (p. William American Scientist Magazine Statistics. in ascending order. Stan The Devil's DP Dictionary Statistics is the branch of scientific method which deals with the data obtained by counting or measuring the properties of populations of natural phenomena. is: lies. delivery promises. Jones.. either human or not. you look for the common factor in order to lump otherwise dissimilar items in a single category. In this definition 'natural phenomena' includes all the happenings of the extemal world. Daniel E. taken one at a time. Moliere. Koshland. A. D .248 STATISTICALLY S P E A K " people were so That was why statistics had to be invented-because unstable and irrational. The Non-Statistical Man (p. Kendall. damn statistics.

Kruskal. . William American Scientist Magazine Statistics. . and Henry Adams (p. Stephen Literary Lapses A Force of Statistics (p.STATISTICS 249 Statistics is the art of stating in precise terms that which one does not know. LaGuardia. Fiorello Liberty The Banking Investigation May 13. 2) “I’ve been reading some very interesting statistics. and Henry Adams (p. statistics!’’ said the other. . Lapin. sir. 74) . 91) . ”wonderful things. very fond of them myself. William American Scientist Magazine Statistics. Moliere. statistics. 417) . Walter A Preface to Politics The Golden Rule and After (p. in the sense that each of us has been busily reaching conclusions based on empirical observations ever since birth. Moliere. each of us has been doing statistics all his life. support rather Lang. all statistical devices are open to abuse and require constant correction. Lawrence Statistics for Modern Business Decisions (p. Lippmann.1933 He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts-for than illumination.’’ Leacock. 417) Statistics are like alienists-they will testdy for either side. “Ah. Andrew Quoted in Evan Esar’s The Dictionary of Humerous Quotations Statistics is a body of methods and theory applied to numerical evidence in making decisions in the face of uncertainty. .” he was saying to the other thinker. Kruskal.

128) . he’s saved the lives of hundreds with those statistics. Walter A Prgace to Politics The Golden Rule and After (p. but because it doesn’t conform with the facts. That impertinent fellow who goes from house to house is one of the real masters of the statistical situation. 137) I don‘t believe you. Lippmann. Ludlum. Lloyd George. Bourne. or whatever your name is. I respect observable data and I can spot inaccuracies. Washbum. David Advocating Tariff Reform Speech 1904 If for medical joumals the 1960s and 1970s seem likely to be remembered as the era when the importance of ethics was emphasized. Lippmann. the last 20 years of this century promise to be that of statistics. Robert The Bourne Identity Chapter 9 (p. God knows he’s brilliant at it. 93-4) You cannot feed the hungry on statistics. or Mr.250 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING You and I are forever at the mercy of the census-taker and the census maker. 92) Even the most refined statistics are nothing but abstractions. Walter A Preface to Politics The Golden Rule and After (pp. The other is the man who organizes the results. 92) Statistics then is no automatic device for measuring facts. Statistics in Practice Daniel’s a statistician. Lippmann. I work with statistics. Lock. Robert The Parsifal M s i oac Chapter 10 (p. S. equations. Mr. Walter A Preface to Politics The Golden Rule and After (p. He sees numbers-fractions. Not because you’re a poor liar. totalsand they spell out the odds for him. I’m trained to do that. Ludlum.

Marshall. like every other economist. Don’t dismiss it through ignorance or because it calls for thought . Robert The Bourne Supremacy Chapter 18 (p.STATISTICS Death is a statistic for the computers. Facts from Figures Statistics Undesirable (p.J. which we’ve covered separately. not counting the hotels. you may be able to do without statistics. . 401) There are three major and perhaps a dozen minor rental agencies. Whoever you are. the garages are not.J. Quoted in Arthur L. M. 8) If you are young. still is used-to enable rulers to know just how far they may safely go in picking the pockets of their subjects. 260) Statistics are the straw out of which I.’’ Ludlum. 251 Ludlum. Robert The Bourne Identity Chapter 29 (p. Mr. have to make the bricks. then I say: Leam something about statistics as soon as you can. 463) Historically. Chapter I (p. Gregory In the movie Charlie Chan at Treasure Island . These are manageable statistics. Moroney. It has been used-indeed. of course. Statistics is no more than State Arithmetic. . A. see to it that those under your wing who look to you for advice are encouraged to look into this subject. a system of computation by which differences between individuals are eliminated by the taking of an average. 1) Well statistics prove that you’re far safer in a modem plane than in a bathtub. M. In this way you will show that your arteries are not yet hardened. if your work calls for the interpretation of data. Facts from Figures Statistics Desirable (p. and you will be able to reap the benefits without doing overmuch work yourself. but you won’t do as well. Moroney. but. If you are older and already crowned with the laurels of success. Bowley’s Elements of Statistics Part I.

The ninety-year-old patient sounded cogent enough when he assured the doctor he would never die. because statistics prove few that few men die over ninety. Winston. The World of Mathematics Volume 3 ( p . more clothes. presentation. William Applied Statistics ( p . marked the figure down to fifty-seven millions. and insanity. more cooking pots. statistics refers to the methodology for the collection. A great deal of the time you were expected to make them up out of your head. Only if the figures prove so startling a thesis that they become dramatized by their very revelation. John Wasserman. more babies-more of everything except disease. more helicopters. For example. in rewriting the forecast. a ”haberdasher of small-wares” in a tiny book called Natural and Political Observations made upon the Bills of Mortality. Neuman. and analysis of data. Neter. more ships. In any case. 1) Statistics was founded by John Graunt of London. Very likely no boots had been produced at all. People are skeptical of statistics. Orwell. sixty-two millions was no nearer the truth than fifty-seven millions. more furniture. more fuel. George Nineteen Eighty-Four ( p p . and for the uses of such data. more houses. They may prove anything. so as to allow for the usual claim that the quota had been overfilled. 42-3) The fabulous statistics continued to pour out of the telescreen. Orwell. As compared with last year there was more food. George Nineteen Eighty-Four (p. the Ministry of Plenty’s forecast had estimated the output of boots for the quarter at a hundred and fortyfive millions pairs. The actual output was given as sixty-two million. . much less cared.252 STATISTICALLY SPEAKlNG . . however. nobody knew how many had been produced. Likelier still. 59) . can they be safely employed. more books. crime. Louis Thinking on Your Feet Let Them In Statistics were just as much a fantasy in their original version as in their rectified version. James R. or a hundred and forty-five millions. Nizer. 1416) Nobody loves a fact man.

a town. Porter. there was a difference. 79) . Statistics don’t lie. a village. Theodore M. The Rise of Statistical Thinking 1820-1900 (p. it could be explained by random error. which last can seldom be the case with young men in any rank of life.] Proverb. 16) “Statistics”as a plural means to us simply numbers.but it wasn’t as large as I would have thought. Well. number of things. the bell clinks! Proverb La estadistics. more blood packs had been separated in the Centre than plasma packs had arrived in CPPL. 25) f No study is less alluring or more dry and tedious than statistics. Porter. otra mas que nos engafia. [Statistics. Puckett. then I worked out a statistical error rate on them. 11) Statistics derives from a German term. not in the right hands. The difference between them was not significant. or more particularly. William The Statistical Brmiary (p. one descends to a province. Andrew Bloodstains (p.STATISTICS 253 It is thus that statistics reveals more and more the inconstance and the irregularity of much social phenomena. unless the mind and imagination are set to or that the person studying is particularly interested in the subject. Jean Quoted in Mary Jo Nye’s Molecular Reality: A Perspective on the Scientific Work o Jean Perrin (p. Playfair. when in lieu of applying it to a great nation altogether. I added them and then compared the two tables. Theodore M. and there is no acceptable synonym. and a difference on the right side. first used as a substantive by the Gottingen professor Gottfried Achenwall in 1749. Pemn. I stared at the figures for a moment. Spanish They were in monthly columns. yet another mistress to deceive us. Statistik. 23) As the statists thinks. The Rise of Statistical Thinking 1820-1900 (p.

254) . 1) The government keeps statistics on every known thing. Rogers. No conditioning. Puzo. statistics-whatever their mathematical sophistication and elegancecannot make bad variables into good ones. . Osno said quickly. Mario Fools Die: A Novel Chapter 24 (p. Robinson." Pynchon. so far as the English language is concemed. Analysis of Nominal Data (p. 56) The political practice of citing only agreeable statistics can never settle economic arguments. H. No link. Rogers. Lewis Newton History and Organization of Criminal Statistics in the United States (p. "How do you get that figure?" He always did that whenever somebody pulled a statistic on him. Will The Writings of Will Rogers Volume IV-3 (p. Reynolds. 167) Everything is figured out down to a Gnat's tooth according to some kind of statistics. 8 ) In this country the statistical side of criminology is very imperfectly developed. No memory. 77) . James B.T. and while the same cannot be said with equal force of other English-speaking countries. Economic Forecasting-Models or Market? (p. it yet remains true that the statistical terminology of this social science is characterized. That's the Monte Carlo Fallacy. No matter how many have fallen inside a particular square. the odds remain the same as they always were. He hated statisticians.254 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING "You got a ninety percent chance. 270) "I" sorry." he said. Each hit is independent of all the others. But there is yet to be a statistics on how many laws we are living under. Bombs are not dogs. Ramsey. Will The Writings o Wl Rogers f il Volume IV-1 (p. . Thomas Gravity's Rainbow (p. by great vagueness and uncertainty.

Like any good religion. Bertrand A. not about individuals. ideally. 154) History is statistics in a state of progression. Schlozer.J. I1 Transactions of the Statistical Society of London Footnote on page 72 Volume I. Russell. Savage. Ludwig Westminster Review Art. L. and Techniques of Statistics (p. Schlozer. Part I April-August 1838 History is for him continuous statistics. David S. they differ from other laws only in being about groups. Ludwig Quoted ip August Meitzen’s History. The American Statistician The Religion of Statistics as Practiced in Medical Joumals Volume 39. It has a priesthood and a class of mendicant friars.191) After 17 years of interacting with physicians. statistics stationary history. Theory. statistics is history at a stand. August 1985 (p. 220) [Statistics] The art of dealing with vagueness and with interpersonal difference in decision situations. I have come to realize that many of them are adherents of a religion they call Statistics. Number 3. Statistics refers to the seeking out and interpretation of p values. are accurate laws about large groups. The Foundation of Statistics (p. And it provides Salvation: Proper invocation of the religious dogmas of Statistics will result in publication in prestigious joumals. Salsburg. 37) . it involves vague mysteries capable of contradictory and irrational interpretation.STATISTICS 255 Statistics. The Analysis of Matter Chapter XIX (p.

Woman and Child Chapter 13 (p. Erich Man. “That’s my job every month. Erich Man. Better than a sleeping pill.256 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING “How are you’ Mrs. Erich Man. And you get a kid as evidence. and thought. 8) .42) ”I mean. 109) “My husband’s a professor at M. I can barely add a column of figures. Segal. For a few lousy days. Woman and Child Chapter 1 (p. ”about a billion to one. Professor?” “Mmm.” Segal.” Shelia smiled.” said Jean-Claude. Woman and Child (p. He idly leafed through a particularly unoriginal piece on stochastic processes. “You‘ll have to see me tomorrow about that.” “So?” ”So you have one lousy affair in your whole life. “What are the chances of this damn rain stopping today. Erich Man.” replied Bob.” Segal. pondering eamestly. He tumed over on his side and picked up the American Jouml of Statistics.” Segal.” he pronounced in a kind of sopranm baritone. I’m always self-conscious when I meet that sort of mind. sir?” “Yes. Woman and Child Chapter 17 (p. I’ve said this stuff a million times. Christ. 178) . 132) “I a Professor Beckworth.I.” ”Oh.” “Really? What’s his field?” ”Statistics. a real brain. Christ. here you are a professor of statistics. what are the odds of that happening to anybody?” ”Oh.” ”Neither can Bob. How’s yer statistics?” Segal.” said Bob bitterly. Erich Man. Woman and Child Chapter 5 (p. ”Would you like to ask me some statistics.T. And then he realized that he himself was the author. Coleman?” “Not too bad.

unrewarded millions without whom Statistics would be a bankrupt science. Now.STATISTICS We ask for no statistics of the killed. It is we who are bom. September 1959 (p. Commenting upon this human frailty to rely too much upon the logic of statistics. who marry. sinking or dispersed. Smith. like chloroform. I may get wet. lull many people to sleep in blissful ignorance. After reading this several times he sauntered off to bed saying. Don’t take them at face value. Solomon. who die. Logan Pearsall Trivia Book I1 Where Do I Come In? Lawyers like words and dislike statistics. 945) Statistics. Karl Collected Poems 1940-1978 Elegy for a Dead Soldier 1. 257 Shapiro. or all those gone. Dale Baughman’s Teacher‘s Treasuy o Stories for Every Occasion f Youth Leader Digest . Dr. in constant ratios. Ben Quoted in M. but I won’t get bumed. Reginald H. For nothing political impinges on This single Casualty. Smith. Hundreds of thousands counted. millions lost. Jay B. statistics make my slumber sweet m If I die. the hours of sleep and all the other details. Missing or healing.49-53 For I am one of the unpraised. and under the glass on the dresser were the statistics on how many people had slept with peace in the room. I a not concerned. I lay me down to sleep. American Bar Association Journal A Sequel: The Bar is Not Overcrowded Volume 45. An inebriate lay at night in a hotel which had a sprinkler system in the room as a fire safety device. Nash of New York University gives us the following story. Look behind statistics! Find out how they’re made up and on what definitions they are based.

3) September 28. 120) Statistics are the heart of democracy. . 90) Statistics show that seventy-four per cent of wives open letters.258 STATlSTlCALLY SPEAKING A single death is a tragedy. Stephen M.1958 I propose that infinitely refutable statistics be declared the official language of politics. How could the core of such a course date from both 1805 and 1885? Is there more than one way a sum of squared deviations can be made small? Stigler. Strunsky. Simeon Topics of the Times November 30.1995 Statistics is the art of lying by means of figures. in studies of heredity.1944 . a million deaths is a statistic. 2) There are two kinds of statistics. Mark Alan Time Washingtoon (p. Already we have a puzzle-a modem course i regression analysis is concemed almost entirely with the method of n least squares and its variations. elementary statistics texts tell us that the method of least squares was first discovered about 1805. Stamaty. Josef cited by Anne Fremantle in The New York Times Book Review Unwritten Pages at the End of the Diary (p. The History of Statistics Introduction (p. Stalin. . 20) . Stekel. Wilhelm Marriage at the Crossroads Chapter I1 (p. the kind you look up and the kind you make up. with or without a teakettle. Whether it had one or two or more discoverers can be argued. We also read that Sir Francis Galton discovered regression about 1885. Stout. 21) September 25. Stout. Rex Death of a Doxy (p. still the method dates from no later than 1805. Rex Death of a Doxy (p.

”But we’ve lost money for the last three years. What do I tell the stockholders?” “Well. The Editors The American Statistician Statistics. Many regard it as a branch of economics. pigs of lead.” Thomsett. bars of iron.STATISTICS 259 Everything is quiet. Tchekhov. Jews. The Little BZuck Book o Business Statistics (p. The Physical Sciences and Engineering Volume 2. and the company would soon be a national success story. Michael C . Catholics. The Little Black Book o Business Statistics (p. ”Drop a few zeros off the sales figures and put a negative sign in front of the profit projections-and you’ll get a pretty good idea of where we’re going. peaceful and against it all is only the silent protest of statistics. have calculated to a nicety how many quarter loaves. A new manager.“ one executive piped up. it is columns and columns of numerical facts. The beginning student of the subject considers it to be largely mathematics. Future sales would skyrocket. Methodists. asked one veteran executive how accurate the president’s statistics were. But why cite performance? Let’s blame it on statistics. and Church-of-England men are consumed or produced in the different countries of this wicked world. sacks of wool. . profits would grow. . Thackery. Anton Tchekhov’s Plays and Stories Gooseberries The statistics mongers . The executive replied. impressed with the apparent growth potential for the company. statistics is ”quartered pies.” Thomsett. Pigeon To some people. William M. Quakers. 6 ) f “This used to be a profitable company. ”it’s true that our three-year average is poor. 21) f . . . cute little battleships and tapering rows of sturdy soldiers in diversified uniforms”. Michael C . Character Sketches Captain Rook and Mr. Number 4.” the president complained. August 1948 The president always led off meetings with a dizzying array of projections. To others. Turks.

I’m a black woman. Anthony The Eustace Diamond XXIV Statistics is the science. his calculation of the various probabilities led him to conclude that this was his ”percentage play”. Now not so much as a glimmer of any number entered the shortstop’s head in this time. I’m a middle-aged woman. 51) I am a statistic. Anthony The Eiistace Diamond XXIV As one of the legislators of the country I am prepared to state that statistics are always false. he probably has no chance of a double play. Tillmon. John The Hidden Game of Baseball (p. Research Operations in Industry . Trollope. Tukey. and the technique of making inferences from the particular to the general. And I’m on welfare. you just don’t count. he may have a little chance of a play at second. I’m a poor woman. the philosophy. John W.260 STATlSTlCALLY SPEAKING While he is racing to the hole. Reader Welfare Is a Woman’s Issue (p. If you’re all those things. Reader Welfare Is a Woman’s Issue (p. He throws to third because the distance from the hole to the bag is short. In this country. Trollope. 51) We have no statistics to tell us whether there be any such disproportion in class where men do not die early from overwork. the shortstop is figuring: Based on the speed of the runners and how hard the ball is hit. except as a statistic. and he almost certainly has no play at first. yet he wus thinking statistically. Tillmon. Thorn. Johnnie Quoted in Francine Klagsbrun’s The First Ms. if you’re any one of those things you count less as a person. the art. 5 ) I‘m a woman. Johnnie Quoted in Francine Klagsbrun’s The First Ms. I’m a fat woman.

which grinds you stuff of any degree of fineness. Unknown Quoted i Alexis L. damned lies. nevertheless. what you get out depends on what you put in. Statistics show that we lose more fools on this day than in all the other days of the year put together. has little or no advantage over the sitting of today. so pages of formulas will not get a definite result out of loose data. but. and as the grandest mill in the world will not extract wheat flour from peascods. Mark The Autobiography of Mark Twain Chapter 29 July 4. What I like to read about are facts and statistics of any kind. Twain.” Twain. I never care for fiction or story-books. and statistics. they are probably wrong. Mark Quoted in Rudyard Kipling’s From Sea to Sea An Interview with Mark Twain Statistics can provide a ready proof For doubtful facts which ought to stay aloof. 164) Personally. but I perceive that my statistics have a defect: 3. particularly when I have the arranging of them myself. Statistics may be compared to a mill of exquisite workmanship. Mark Pudd‘nhead Wilson Chapter XVII (p. Unknown Paraphrase of Thomas Henry Huxley in Quarterly Journal o Geological Society f Volume 25 1869 . covering half the time and producing half the output. in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: ”There are three kinds of lies: lies. Twain.STATISTICS 261 I was deducing from the above that I had been slowing down steadily in these hrty-six years. Romanoff‘s n Encyclopedia o Thoughts f If the statistics show a trend or change. Unknown This seems to be one of the many cases in which the admitted accuracy of statistical processes is allowed to throw a wholly inadmissible appearance of authority over the results obtained from them. Figures often beguile me. when I was working seven or eight or nine hours at a sitting.000 words in the spring of 1868.

What they reveal is interesting but what they conceal is vital. Unknown Statistics must be based upon something. Unknown Quoted in The Macmillan Dictionary of Quotations Thinking has its place. you surrender your thinking in trust to the feelings that come to you out of the bush. . . Unknown Statistics prove Near and Far That folks who Drive like crazy -Are! Burma Shave Unknown Medical statistics are like a bikini. Unknown What statisticians have in their briefcases is terrifying. . but I'm not certain what it is. Van der Post. only when one is confronted with known facts and statistics.] Unknown If I had only one day left to live. but. born to consume resources. Unknown Nos numerus sumus et fruges consumere nati. [We are just statistics. 248) . Unknown The Durbin-Whatzit statistics is used to test unknown assumptions. Laurens A Far-off Place (p. When you're in the unknown and the dark . I would live it in my statistics class-it would seem so much longer. . Unknown The beginning of modem statistics is also the beginning of modern Calamity.262 STATlSTlCA LLY S P E A K " Statistics is the science which uses easy words for hard ideas.

Evelyn In Mark Amory’s The Letters of Evelyn Waiigh Letter to Laura Herbert. 46) Mathematical statistics provides an exceptionally clear example of the relationship between mathematics and the extemal world. which are justifiable. Marshall The Nature of Scientific Thought (p. postulate models to predict new measurements.STATISTICS 263 There are three kinds of lies: white lies. Chamont Sense and Nonsense of Statistical Inference (p. . . 29) 0 god thou has appointed three score years and ten as man’s allotted span but 0 god statistics go to prove that comparatively few ever attain that age. not unknown. Chamont Sense and Nonsense of Statistical Inference (p. 7-8 Statistics provides a quantitative example of the scientific process usually described qualitatively by saying that scientists observe nature. Marshall The Nature of Scientific Thought (p. and validate the model by the success of prediction. Richard Probability. common lies-these have no justification. Walker. study the measurements. Walker. Wang. 29) Statistics as a science is to quantify uncertainty. Derek Collected Poems A Far Cry from Africa 1. Waugh. 50) As a matter of fact. and statistics. mathematics provides the equation (the mathematical model) that corresponds to the empirical curve. Wang. Statistics and Truth First Lecture (p. 99) . Walcott. The extemal world provides the experimentally measured distribution curve. 1) Statistics justify and scholars seize The salients of colonial policy. dated October 1935 (p. The statistician may be guided by a thought experiment in finding the corresponding equation. the whole notion of ”statistical inference” often is more of a plague and less of a blessing to research workers. von Mises.

Alfred N r h ot Adventures of Ideas Cosmologies Section IV . Whitehead. 156) There is a curious misconception that somehow the mathematical mysteries of Statistics help Positivism to evade its proper limitation to the observed past. it would be a science. Volume I. Part I Volume 29. it is merely a form of knowledge-a mode of arranging and stating facts which belong to various sciences. Studied as the statistical council have decreed statistics shall be studied. But statistics tell you nothing about the future unless you make the assumption of the permanence of statistical form. 1838 (p. the probable error.264 STATlSTlCALLY SPEAKING The pretensions advanced for statistics by the student of it are undoubtedly gaining increased authority with the public. No mere record and arrangement of facts can constitute a science. White. Westminster Review Art I1 Transactions of the Statistical Society of London. Part I Volume 29. Part I Volume 29. Westminster Review Art I1 Transactions of the Statistical Society of London. Volume I. Volume I. in order to use statistics for prediction. But statistics is not even a department of human knowledge. and cannot be one. though even then not a distinct and separate science. unless the bias can be measured and eliminated from the result-so also conclusions obtained from even the best data by one unacquainted with the principles of statistics must be of doubtful value. Westminster Review Art I1 Transactions of the Statistical Society of London. the mode. 69) But statistics is not a science. no department of human knowledge ever could become a science-a collection of theoriesbecause they have put their veto on theorizing. 45) Statistics has been called a science. William F. But the observations of astronomy may be called the science of astronomy as properly as statistics may be denominated a science. assumptions are wanted as to the stability of the mean. 70) Just as data gathered by an incompetent observer are worthies-r by a biased observer. It is said to connect its facts by a chain of causation: if it did so. 1838 (p. A Scrap-Book o Elementary Mathematics f The Mathematical Treatment of Statistics (p. For example. and the symmetry or skewness of the statistical expression of functional correlation. 1838 (p.

A diagram hung there instead. “God’s fire upon the wan. and when this condition is unnecessarily chronic the so-called statisticians may be called liars.” he said. More women bom than men. Introductory Statistics (p.B.B. Wonnacott.STATISTICS 265 Figures may not lie. 5) ”Those Platonists are a curse. but statistics compiled unscientifically and analyzed incompetently are almost sure to be misleading. E. Ronald J. Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society Volume 18. Wilson.1912 But in all cases remember that statistics is not a spectator sport. Wonnacott.” Yeats. Yeats Statistics . Thomas H. William Butler The Collected Poems of W.

should be so put and so worded as to be unaffected by contextual contaminations. The question. 545) . William Edwards Some Theory of Sampling (p.Z. expression. Nagi and R.neither the interviewer nor the instrument should act in any way upon the situation. Quoted in S. I.G. one question at a time. Convin’s The Social Contexts of Research Public and Private Opinions: Social Situations and Multiple Realities No aphorism is more frequently repeated with field trial. The question must be unloaded in that it does not hint in any way that one response is more desirable or more correct than any other response. 31) A perfect survey is a myth. ideally. It must be placed in the sequence of the instrument in such a way that the subject’s response is not affected by previous queries or by his own previous responses. right or wrong. The interviewer must be an inert agent who exerts no influence or response by tone. will be made. ideally. 24) The only excuse for taking a survey is to enable a rational decision to be made on some problem that has arisen and on which decision. Deming. or statement. . Deming. William Edwards Some Theory of Sampling (p. . William Edwards Some Theory of Sampling (p. than that we must ask Nature few questions or.SURVEYS AND QUESTIONNAIRES A questionnaire is never perfect: some are simply better than others. Deming. Deutscher. stance. 266 .

and circulated by untrained and inexperienced individuals. Strong. Abraham Naffali Questionnaire Design and Attitude Measurement (pp.SURVEYS AND QUESTIONNAIRES 267 The writer is convinced that this view is wholly mistaken. it has to be specifically designed according to particular specifications and with specific aims in mind. ix) A questionnaire is not just a list of questions or a form to be filled out. indeed. efficient or inefficient. 511) ”But what is the purpose of your survey?” he asked. he suggests. worded so as to lead to worthless replies. You can’t fair a curve with so little data. So. ”Does it need a purpose? I tell you. Like all such instruments. but first and foremost. as modified by the sum of the last digits of all new telephone numbers in Toronto. 6 ) The time of busy people is sometimes wasted by time-consuming questionnaires dealing with inconsequential topics. Nature. Beyond This Horizon (p. about the design of the investigation as a whole. Sir Ronald A. Journal o the Ministry o Agriculture of Great Britain f f Volume 33 (p.” ”But your numbers are too few to be significant. Fisher. lacking in facilities for summarizing and disseminating any worthwhile information which they may obtain. Berdie and John F. your results don’t mean anything. John K. This means that we have to think not merely about the wording of particular questions. Norton. why bother with surveys of your own market? Just send away for the data from Canada and Brazil. 2-3) Your sales last year just paralleled the sales of rum cokes in Rio de Janeiro. We cannot judge a questionnaire as good or bad. unless we know what job it was meant to do. Oppenheim. I just made it up. she will often refuse to answer until some other topic has been discussed. Robert A. Lydia Management Rm‘ew Sales Forecasting: Problems and Prospects September 1956 (p.” Heinlein. if we ask her a single question. Quoted in Douglas R. Besides. and the data it yields are subject to error. Anderson’s Questionnaires: Design and Use (p. 803) . will best respond to a logical and carefully thought out questionnaire. your conditions are uncontrolled. It is essentially a scientific instrument for measurement and for collection of particular kinds of data.

Edward Newman. 270) - 268 . lames Mathematics and the Imagination.SYMMETRY Equiprobability in the physical world is purely a hypothesis. Thus. or rather our ignorance. Charlie Chan (See p. 251) I - =? r - k m --=<T Theory like mist on eyeglasses. Obscure facts. Even if we are satisfied that it is. our knowledge. Kasner. the statement ”head and tail are equiprobable” is at best an assumption.&. and that our evidence on that point is conclusive. about the vast number of other causes which affect the fall of the penny is so abysmal that the fact of the penny’s symmetry is a mere detail. We may exercise the greatest care and the most accurate of scientific instruments to determine whether or not a penny is symmetrical.

their arrangement in a particular way in tables. . the juxtaposition of sets of figures. some witty comments made by A. like the sieve of the Danaides. of a kind to vitiate any tests of significance which the reader may be tempted to apply to them. 1938 Volume 4. orderly to look upon. There are innumerable circumstances. known only to the officers who compiled it. Fisher. .L. 1938 (p. Thomas English and other Critical Essays Chartism Chapter I1 The way statistics are presented. . Conclusive facts are inseparable from inconclusive except by a head that already understands and knows. and which they are unable for official reasons to divulge. allowances and other corrections. . Bowley . Footnote: (a) The terms used in the headings and margins of the table are all employed in a technical sense. Sankhya Presidential Address First Indian Statistical Conference. (b) The sub-divisions of the table and the region to which it refers have been changed since the last retum was published. (c) Before tabulation the data have been subjected to numerous adjustments. . 109) . 15) 269 . Ely Essays in Economics Chapter 6 (p. Carlyle. in itself reflects the judgment of the author about what is sigruficant and what is trivial in the situation which the statistics portray. beautifully reticulated. . but which will hold no conclusion.TABLES Tables are like cobwebs. Devons. Tables are abstractions . Sir Ronald A. and one circumstance left out may be the vital one on which all tumed . . .

270

STATISTICALLY SPEAK"

Worst of all, however, are joumals that publish tables giving the results, mostly unintelligible, of multiple range tests, the said results receiving no mention in the text. The last fault arises possibly from the misconceived idea that the property of sigruficance resides in the data themselves, not in the contrasts they estimate. Accordingly, if the data are "significant," the author is free to comment on any feature however trivial; if they are not, interpretation is deemed impermissible. Peirce, Charles Sanders Quoted i Samuel Kotz and Norman L. Johnson's n
Breakthroughs in Statistics Volume I1 (p. 61)

Information that is imperfectly acquired, is generally as imperfectly retained; and a man who has carefully investigated a printed table, finds, when done, that he has only a very faint and partial idea of what he has read; and that like a figure imprinted on sand, is soon totally erased and defaced. Playfair, William
The Commercial and Political Atlas (p. 3)

Education is an admirable thing, but it is well to remember from time to time that nothing that is worth knowing can be taught.
Oscar Wilde

- (See p. 272)

TEACHING

When an engineer apologetically approaches a statistician, graph in hand, and asks how he should fit a straight line to these points, the situation is not unlike the moment when one’s daughter inquires where babies come from. There is a need for tact, there is a need for delicacy, but here is opportunity for enlightenment and it must not be discarded casually-or destroyed with the glib answer.
Acton, F.S.
National Bureau of Standards Report 12-10-51 (p. 1)

To teach doubt and Experiment Certainly was not what Christ meant.
Blake, William
The Complete Writings of William Blake The Everlasting Gospel d, 1. 49

The teaching of probabilistic reasoning, so very common and important a feature of modem science, is hardly developed in our educational system before college.
Bruner, Jerome Seymour The Process of Education (p. 45)

Statistics is not the easiest subject to teach, and there are those to whom anything savoring of mathematics is regarded as for ever anathema.
Moroney, M.J. Facts from Figures Statistics Desirable (p. 458) 271

272

STATISTICALLY SPEAKING

It is hard to understand why he failed to appreciate the pedagogical value of designing an experiment to illustrate a point of theory, predicting the result, running the experiment, and then taking the consequences if it tumed out wrong. Olds, Edwin G.
Journal of the American Statistical Association Teaching Statistical Quality Control for Town and Gown Volume 44, 1949 (pp.2 2 3 4 )

Two managers were taking a course in basic statistics. After an evening in class, one said to the other, ”I’ve noticed that every time a new idea is introduced, I have to look up three or four words just to make sense out of the idea. Why do statisticians obfuscate their message with so much terminology? Why can’t they simplify it instead?” The second manager replied, “I’ll tell you, but only after I find out what ’obfuscate’ means.” Thomsett, Michael C. The Little Black Book o Business Statistics (p.117) f Teaching data analysis is not easy, and the time allowed is always far from sufficient. Tukey, John W.
Annals of Mathematical Statistics The Future of Data Analysis Volume 33, Number 1, March 1962 (p.11)

Education is an admirable thing, but it is well to remember from time to time that nothing that is worth knowing can be taught. Wilde, Oscar
Epigrams: Phrases and Philosophies for the Use of the Young Sebastian Melmoth

TESTING

Rejection rules are not significance tests.
Anscombe, F.J.
Technometrics Rejection of Outliers Volume 2, 1960 (p. 126)

There is no more pressing need in connection with the examination of experimental results than to test whether a given body of data is or is not in agreement with any suggested hypothesis. Fisher, Sir Ronald A.
Statistical Methods for Research Workers (p. 250)

Comparisons do ofttime great grievance.
Lydgate, John
Bochas Book 111, Chapter VI11

No instrument smaller than the World is fit to measure men and women: Examinations measure Examinees. Raleigh, Sir Walter
Laughterfrom a Cloud Some Thoughts on Examinations (p. 120)

In an examination those who do not wish to know ask questions of those who cannot tell. Raleigh, Sir Walter
Laughterfrom a Cloud Some Thoughts on Examinations (p. 120)

Beware of the confounded effect!
Unknown

273

274

STATISTICALLY SPEAKlNG

Examinations are pure humbug from beginning to end.

Wilde, Oscar
Epigrams: Phrases and Philosophies for the Use of the Young Oscariana

In examinations the foolish ask questions that the wise cannot answer. Wilde, Oscar
Epigrams: Phrases and Philosophies for the Use of the Young Phrases and Philosophies

W€DDED..
I

It is not nice to be wedded to anythug-not even t o a theory.
Samuel Butler (See p. 276)

-

THEORY

The real beginning of the theory of probability goes back to 1654,when Pascal and Fermat laid down the fundamental principles in a short correspondence. Most mathematical disciplines have had respectable enough parents; the progenitors (not Fermat and Pascal) of the theory of probability were thoroughly disreputable. Bell, Eric T.
Mathematics: Queen and Servant of Science (p. 377)

Shortly after they were married, one of Corde’s academic friends had congratulated him, saying, ”Do you remember that old piece of business from probability theory, that if a million monkeys jumped up and down on the keys of typewriters for a million years one of them would compose Paradise Lost?” Bellow, Saul
The Dean‘s December Chapter iv (p. 80)

The world is more complicated than most of our theories make it out to be. Berkeley, Edmund C.
Right Answers-A

Computers and Automation Short Guide for Obtaining Them September 1969 (p. 20)

A theory is merely a scientific idea controlled by experiment. Bernard, Claude
A n Introduction to the Study o Experimental Medicine (p. 26) f

That quantity which, when multiplied by, divided by, added to, or subtracted from the answer you get, gives you the answer you should have gotten. Bloch, Arthur
Murphy’s Law Skinner’s Constant (p. 36)

275

276

STATISTICALLY SPEAKING

Your theory is most excellent, and I shall endeavour to collect facts for you with a view to its elucidation. Buckland, Frank
Quoted in Karl Pearson’s The Life, Letters, and Labours of Francis Galton Volume I1 (p. 87)

It is not nice to be wedded to anything-not

even to a theory. Butler, Samuel Samuel Butler’s Note-Books (p. 116)

For that theory [mathematical theory of statistics] is solely concemed with working out the properties of the theoretical models, whereas what matters-and what in one sense is most difficult-is to decide what theoretical model best corresponds to the real world-situation to which statistical methods must be applied. There is a great danger that mathematical pupils will imagine that a knowledge of mathematical statistics alone makes a statistician. Champemowne, D.G.
Journal o the Royal Statistical Society f A Discussion on the Teaching of Mathematical Statistics at the University Level Volume 118, 1955 (p. 203)

Theory like mist on eyeglasses. Obscure facts.
Chan, Charlie
In the movie Charlie Chan in Egypt

But Pop, I’ve got a theory.
Chan, Jimmy
In the movie Charlie Chan in Panama

A man warmly concemed with any large theories has always a relish for

applying them to any triviality.
Chesterson, Gilbert Keith
The Father Brown Omnibus The Wisdom of Father Brown The Absence of Mr. Glass

“I’d be glad to settle without the theory,” remarked Kimball, ”if I could even understand what this thing i s - o r what it’s supposed to do.” Clarke, Arthur C.
The Lost Worlds o 2001 f Chapter 30

THEORY

277

”And that,” said Kaminski, ”reminds me of another quotation-one of Niels Bohr’s. ’Your theory is crazy-but not crazy enough to be true.’” Clarke, Arthur C.
The Lost Worlds of 2001 Chapter 30

Theory is worth little, unless it can explain its own phenomena, and it must effect this with out contradicting itself; therefore, the facts are sometimes assimilated to the theory, rather that the theory to the facts. Colton, Charles Caleb
Lacon: or many things in a few words (p. 77)

Professors in every branch of the sciences prefer their own theories to truth: the reason is, that their theories are privafe property, but truth is common stock. Colton, Charles Caleb
Lacon: or many things in a few words (p. 189)

. . . for without the making of theories I am convinced there would be no observation. Darwin, Charles
The Life and Letters of Charles Darwin Volume I1 C . Darwin to C. Lye11 June 1st [1860] (p. 108)

. . . a theory arises from a leap of the imagination. . .
Davies, J.T.
The Scientific Approach (p. 1 ) 1

Theories are generalizations and unifications, and as such they cannot logically follow only from our experiences of a few particular events. Indeed we often generalize from a single event, just as a dog does who, having once seen a cat in a certain driveway, looks eagerly around whenever he passes that place in the future.Evidently this latter activity is equivalent to testing the theory . . . that “there is always a cat in that driveway”. Davies, J.T.
The Scientific Approach (p. 1 ) 1

Rowe’s Rule: the odds are six to five that the light at the end of the tunnel is the headlight of an oncoming train. Dickson, Paul
Washingtonian November 1978

Theory is of the essence of facts. W. Gilbert. Albert The Sunday Times 18 July 1976 The possession of an original theory which has not yet been assailed must certainly sweeten the temper of a man who is not beforehand ill-natured. Sullivan. however. and it is another matter. And lo! It is our own. Eliot. Hamilton. Quoted in Paul Dickson’s The Oficial Rules (S165) We have found a strange footprint on the shores of the unknown. Let them be digested into theory. Edith The Roman Way Comedy’s Mirror Facts are of not much use. and brought into mutual harmony. but no path leads from experiment to the birth of a theory.278 STATlSTlCALLY SPEAKING Schumper’s Observation of Scientific Theories. Sir Arthur Stanley Space. Time and Gravitation (p. Eddington. one after another to account for its origin. We have devised profound theories. we have succeeded in reconstructing the creature that made the footprint. Any theory can be made to fit the facts by means of appropriate additional assumptions. Heaviside. Introduction (p.S. Arthur The Complete Plays o Gilbert and Sullivan f The Pirates of Penzance Act I Theories that go counter to the facts of human nature are foredoomed. George The Impressions o Theophrasttrs Such f How We Encourage Research (p. Einstein. At last. They bewilder by their number and their apparent incoherency. Without theory scientific knowledge would be only worthy of the mad house. considered as facts. 131) A theory can be proved by experiment. Oliver Electromagnetic Theory Chapter I. 12) . 26) About binomial theorem I’m teeming with a lot 0’ newsWith many cheerful facts about the square of the hypotenuse.

and many Bemoullis. Sherlock i Arthur Conan Doyle's n The Complete Sherlock Holmes Adventure of the Norwood Builder No theory is sacred. Then came Chebyshev. Holmes. and they begat limit theorems. for Taylor had expanded that which needed expansion and he said it twice. Aleksander Isaakovich Lecture. Ferguson. a second-rate theory forbids and a third-rate theory explains after the event. in the long run. Holmes. Liapounov. Edwin The Nature o Science and other Lectures f Experiment and Experience (p. stable. and sufficient. I only wish to point out that there are other theories possible. but the time shall come when Gauss will have no parts except that they be in . Hilton. August 1975 In the beginning there was de Moivre. James This Week Magazine 1937 One forms provisional theories and waits for time or fuller knowledge to explode them." And it was good. Kitaigordski. 41) A first-rate theory predicts. but human nature is weak. and Markov and they begat a proof and Polya saw that it was momentous and he said that its name shall be called the Central Limit Theorem. but they asked "Is it necessary"? Levy answered. Sherlock i Arthur Conan Doyle's n The Complete Sherlock Holmes The Adventure of the Sussex Vampire I don't mean to deny that the evidence is in some ways very strong in favour of your theory. Mr. Laplace. Then there were new generations and they said that it had experimental vigor but lacked in rigor.THEORY 279 And I believe that the Binomial Theorem and a Bach Fugue are. but Levy had seen that Fourier transforms are characteristic functions and he said "Let them multiply and bring forth limit theorems and stable laws. and the wise men saw that it was good and they called it by the name of Gauss. A bad habit. "I shall say verily unto you that it is not necessary.more important than all the battles of history. Then came Lindeberg and he said that it was elementary. Hubble. ICU Amsterdam.

and it came to pass that there were many limit theorems and many were central and they overflowed the chronicles and this was the history of the central limit theorem. LeCam. but when a theory collides with a fact. 23-4) The argument seemed sound enough. L. Number 1. Peirce. Statistical Science The Central Limit Theorem around 1935 Volume 1. in front of a turbulent audience. Moger. and then it will be necessary. The third. 278) On another occasion I awoke covered in sweat. I had just dreamt the obvious solution to my nightmare. the result is a tragedy. Standing beside a huge blackboard covered in equations. Art. seated on a hippopotamus hide. weighs 300 pounds. Nizer. John The Natural and the Supernatural Chapter XV (p. Charles Sanders Writings of Charles Sanders Peirce Volume 3 (p. that meant not just that a roulette player placing his stake on a random number had just as much . Louis M Life in Court y Proxy Battle (p. The Complete Pun Book (pp. the answer is that the squaw on the hippopotamus is equal to the sons of the squaws on the other two hides. The second. 86) Three Indian women are sitting side by side. sitting on a goatskin. has a son who weighs 130 pounds. What famous theorem does this illustrate? Naturally. and when Cramer announced that the time had come. sitting on a deerskin. 433) To refuse to consider any possibility is merely the old habit of making theory the measure of reality. The first. and there was much rejoicing and Levy said it must be recorded in the bibles and he did record it. February 1986 (p. that the celebrated ”Monte Carlo Theorem” was generalisable.280 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING the image of Gauss himself. has a son who weighs 170 pounds. Oman.’’ It was a prophecy. 269) The theory of probabilities is simply the science of logic quantitatively treated. a mathematician was concluding his demonstration.

that is to add to its content. Romanoff. Reichenbach. But if high probability were an aim of science. For the scientist is most interested in theories with a high content. then degree of confirmation cannot be identified with probability. Edgar Allen Tales of Mystery and Imagination The Murders in the Rue Morgue (p. 231) A theory is worthless without good supporting data. .THEORY 281 chance of winning as a martingale player systematically doubling his stake on the same number on each loss in order to recoup eventually . Petit. don’t get upset. please believe me. If (as Camap tell us) a high degree of confirmation is one of the things we aim at in science. And in view of the high content of universal laws. 146) Sir. Alexis L. 208) But this is sufficient to show that a high probability cannot be one of the aims of science. But their aim is to ’advance‘ science. Popper. Conjectures and Refutations: The Growth of Scient@ Knowledge (p. Encyclopedia of Thoughts Aphorisms 2410 . 11) Coincidences. This may sound paradoxical to some people. since observational facts can make a theory only probable but wiU never make it absolutely certain. it’s the first time this has ever happened. You know our Theorems are GUARANTEED. 286) The study of inductive inference belongs to the theory of probability. . Hans The Rise of Scientific Philosophy (p. Poe. He does not care for highly probable trivialities but for bold and severely testable (and severely tested) hypotheses. in general. are great stumbling-blocks in the way of that class of thinkers who have been educated to know nothing of the theory of probabilities-that theory to which the most glorious objects of human research are indebted for the most glorious of illustration. . Yet this means lowering its probability. Perec. then scientists should say as little as possible. Jean-Pierre Euclid Rules OK (p. and preferably utter tautologies only. Georges Life: A User’sManual (p. it is neither surprising to find that their probability is zero . . Have another try. Karl R.

Da Vinci. 1946 (p. theories. Unknown The Treadmill Theorem states that every solution entails k GE. The Unpleasantness at the Bellona Club Chapter 4 It is noteworthy that the etymological root of the word theatre is the same as that of the word theory! namely a view. try to see clearly what it means. Seeger." said Martin.282 STATlSTlCALLY SPEAKlNG Very dangerous things. Leonard0 Notebooks C "Let us work without theorising. Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences Volume 36. non-independent observations. First of all. and an indeterminate number of inaccurately recorded values. particular instances as are needed to convince yourself of its t u h When you have satisfied yourself that the theorem is true. Sayers. verify as many rt. Unknown The supreme misfortune is when theory outstrips performance. unknown The Dirty Data Theorem states that "real world" data tends to come from bizarre and unspecifiable distributions of highly correlated variables and have unequal sample sizes. Raymond J. Then check the theorem." Voltaire Candide XXX . A theory offers us a better view. Dorothy L. do not rush. Unknown Why bother to make it elegant if it already works. missing data points. you start proving it. understand fully what the theorem says. Examine the consequences. unknown Facts without theory is trivia. "tis the only way to make life endurable. it could be false. 1 new problems. Theory without facts is bullshit. 286) If you have to prove a theorem.

282) . 748) Why bother to make it elegant if it already works. most of the theorems of statistics would not survive i mathematics if the subject of statistics itself were to die out. Wolfowitz. Unknoe~n - (888 p. J. and perhaps not even n these.THEORY 283 Except perhaps for a few of the deepest theorems. I order to survive the n subject must be more responsive to the needs of application. Essays in Probabilily and Statistics (p.

58) There are certain statements which. George The George Eliot Letters Volume IV (p. Raymond F. . . and not wade o f into arbitrary falsehood. but at least one must strive for that. Anthony The Eustace Diamond LXXVIII 284 . The Non-Statistical Man (p. Jones. though they are false as hell. Trollope.TRUTH Approximate truth is the only truth attainable. 43) . f Eliot. must be treated as though they were true gospel. in the statistical world you can multiply ignorance by a constant and get truth.

Cooley. The Task Book I1 (The Timepiece) 1.VARIABILITY McDougall's freedom was my variance. If there is a known law. Crichton. The Scientific Monthly When is Human Behavior Predetermined Volume 84. for there freedom might still persist. 190) It is clear that one who attempts to study precisely things that are changing must have a great deal to do with measures of change. Cowper. McDougall hoped that variance would always be found in specdying the laws of behavior.G. E. Michael The Terminal Man Chapter 6 (p. At any rate t i general fact emerges from this hs example: freedom. always resides in an area of ignorance. when you believe it is operating. Boring. William Cowper: Poetical Work. 1957 (p. 606 The computer informed her that three spaces accounted for eighty-one percent of variance. 47) 285 . I hoped then-less wise than I think I am now (it was 31 years ago)-that science would keep pressing variance towards zero as a limit. That gives it all its flavour. Charles Journal of the Amm'can Statistical Association Observations on the Measure of Change New Series. March 1893 Variety's the very spice of life. you do not have freedom. Number 21.

1888 The incalculable number of petty accidents that concur to produce variability among brothers. assays were sometimes carried out on as few as three rabbits: as one pharmacologist put it. Francis Quoted in Karl Pearson’s The Lfe. and in the same direction. 16-7) If we knew the little differences which divide one man from another. Galton. . and we can also obtain precise information concerning the penumbra of uncertainty that attaches itself to single predictions.. Chiefly from Anthropometric Data Volume 45. Breeders believe that long limbs are almost always accompanied by an elongated head . those were the happy days. . Galton.. makes it impossible to predict the exact qualities of any individual from hereditary data. . Charles The Origin o Species f Chapter I Effects of Habit and the Use or Disuse of Parts Before the inherent variability of the test-animals was appreciated. . Francis Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Co-relations and Their Measurements. . . it appears that white sheep and pigs are injured by certain plants whilst dark-coloured individuals escape . . Francis Natural Inheritance Process in Heredity (pp. Journal o the Royal Statistical Society f Volume vii (p. Darwin.286 STATlSTZCALLY SPEAKZNG Many laws regulate variation. we should have the key to most of life’s riddles. . 3) Two variable organs are said to be co-related when the variation of one is accompanied on the average by more or less variation of the other. Important changes in the embryo or larva will probably entail changes in the mature animal. and Labours o Francis Galton f Volume I (p. 55) . . Letters. cats which are entirely white and have blue eyes are generally deaf. Galton. even within the same family. But we may predict average results with great certainty . . Fieller. . E C . I will here only allude to what may be called correlated variation. some few of which can be dimly seen .

David An Enquiy Concerning Human Understanding Section IV (p. but to be a mere accident. . Gottfried Wilhelm Lzibniz: Discoiirse on Metaphysics Monadology. Huxley. . Hume. William Anatomical Exercises on the Generation o Animals f Exercise 59 . occur. uproar's your only music. to me the form of Nothing so like as eggs. Thomas H. . yet no one. 166) There is nothing stable in the world. in different individuals. 35) The student of anatomy is perfectly well aware that there is not a single organ of the human body the structure of which does not vary. . is the existence of differences among its members.VARIABILITY 287 the egg has never appeared to have aught to do with the engenderment of the chick. The unit. The first condition necessary. on account of t i appearing hs similarity. . 1818 . expects the same taste and relish in all of them. there are never in nature two beings which are exactly alike . with which . John Letters of John Keats Letter to George and Thomas Keats 13 January. and to this conclusion I come the rather when I see the diversities in the shapes of the eggs of different hens. to a greater or less extent. exhibiting any given degree of abnormality with respect to that character. Harvey. Keats. . in order that any process of Natural Selection may begin among a race. Man's Place in Nature I11 (p. Leibniz. 9 The starting point of D r i ' theory of evolution is precisely the exawns istence of those differences between individual members of a race or species which morphologists for the most part rightly neglect. or species. and the first step in an enquiry into the possible effect of a selective process upon any character of a race must be an estimate of the frequency with which individuals.

A thousand exactly similar steel bearing balls (if such were possible) would be no more than one ball multiplied one thousand times. personality. The World o Mathematics f Sampling and Standard Error Volume 3 (p. or a statistically representative sample of a race..288 STATlSTlCA LLY SPEAKlNG such an enquiry must deal. . Unknown Since no two events are identical. showing the relative frequency with which the various kinds of individuals composing the race occur. L C . William Maston Proceedings o the Sixth lnternational Congress o Philosophers f f Emergent Evolution of the Social Cambridge. Tippett.] Proverb Variation is. and the result must take the form of a numerical statement. and society is an emergent and. [Variety is the spice of life. at least to some extent. Pearson. molecule. 1901 (p. of course. Wheeler. 1) jucunda vicissitudo rerum. an important characteristic of populations that individuals cannot have .] Unknown Variance is what any two statisticians are at. Massachusetts . organism. Karl Biometrika Editorial. It is the quality of variation that makes it difficult at first to carry in mind a population in its complexity. [All variates are limited in both directions. . a novelty. 1480) Sunt certi denique tines quos ultra citraque nequit existere verum. every atom. is not an individual but a race.

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’Discussion on a Paper by Dr. Marshall and Professor O h ’ by D.F. Kemdge. Copyright 1968. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. ‘Discussion on the paper Some Aspects of the Teaching of Statistics’ by M. Greenwood. Copyright 1939. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Joumal o the Royal Statistical Society. f DOES GOD PLAY DICE by Ian Stewart. Copyright 1990. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Blackwell Publishers. Oxford, UK. ELEMENTARY APPLIED STATISTICS by Linton Freeman. Copyright 1965. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Linton Freeman. ELEMENTARY DECISION THEORY by Herman Chemoff and Lincoln E. Moses. Copyright 1959. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Herman Chemoff and Lincoln E. Moses. EREWHON OR OVER THE RANGE by Samuel Butler. Copyright 1981. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, the University of Delaware Press. Newark, New Jersey. ESSAYS IN PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS edited by R.C. Bose et al. Copyright 1969. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, University of North Carolina Press. Chapel Hill, North Carolina. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGNS by William Cochran and Gertrude M. Cox. Copyright 1957. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. New York. FASTI by Ovid. Translated by Sir James George Frazer. Copyright 1959. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Harvard University Press, and the Leob Classical Library. Cambridge, Massachusetts. FICCIONES by Luis Borges. Copyright 1962. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Grove Press, Inc. New York.

FUTURE SHOCK by Alvin Toffler. Copyright 1970. Reprinted by
permission of the publisher, Random House, Inc. New York. GORGIAS by Plato. Translated with notes by Terrence Irwin. Copyright 1979. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, The Clarendon Press. Oxford, UK. HOW TO LIE WITH STATISTICS by Darrell Huff. Copyright 1954. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, W.W. Norton & Company, Inc. New York. HUDIBRAS by Samuel Butler. Copyright 1967. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, The Clarendon Press. Oxford, UK.

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HUMAN NATURE AND THE HUMAN CONDITION by Joseph Wood Krutch. Copyright 1959. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Random House, Inc. New York. ICON AND IDEA: THE FUNCTION OF ART IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF HUMAN CONSCIOUSNESS by Herbert Read. Copyright 1955. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Harvard University Press. Cambridge, Massachusetts. 'Inaugural Address' by S r Geoffrey Heyworth. Copyright 1950. i Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Journal o the Royal Statistical f

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INTRODUCTION TO MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS by Paul G. Hoel. Copyright 1962. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. New York. INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS by Ronald J. Wonnacott and Thomas H. Wonnacott. Copyright 1985. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. New York. JOHN GAY POETRY AND PROSE by John Gay. Volume 11. Copyright 1974. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, The Clarendon Press. Oxford, UK. LEO SZILARD: HIS VERSION OF THE FACTS by Leo Szilard. Copyright 1978. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, The MIT Press. Cambridge, Massachusetts. LICHTENBERG: APHORISMS & LETTERS by George Lichtenberg. Translated, edited and introduced by Franz H. Maunter and Henry Hatfield. Copyright 1959. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Jonathan Cape. London, UK. LIKELIHOOD by A.W.F. Edwards. Copyright 1972. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Cambridge University Press. New York. LUCRETIUS ON THE NATURE OF THINGS. Translated by Cyril Bailey. Copyright 1950. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, The Clarendon Press. Oxford, UK. MATHEMATICS AND THE SEARCH FOR KNOWLEDGE by Morris Kline. Copyright 1985. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Oxford University Press. Oxford, UK. METAMORPHOSES by Ovid. Translated by Frank Justus Miller. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Harvard University Press, and the Leob Classical Library. Cambridge, Massachusetts. MODELS OF MAN: SOCIAL AND RATIONAL by Herbert Simon. Copyright 1957. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Herbert R. Simon.

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NATURAL PHILOSOPHY OF CAUSE AND CHANCE by Max Bom. Copyright 1964. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Dover Publications, Inc. New York. NEW ATLANTIS by Francis Bacon. Copyright 1942. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, D. Van Nostrand Co., Inc. New York. ’Nightingale on Quetelet’ by Marion Diamond and Mervyn Stone. Copyright 1981. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Joumal o f the Royal Statistical Society. NINETEEN EIGH’IY-FOUR by George Orwell. Copyright 1949. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Harcourt, Brace & World, Inc. New York. ’Observations on the Measure of Change’ by Charles Cooley. Copyright 1893. Reprinted by permission of the publishers, Joumal o the American f Statistical Association. ’Obstacles to Accurate Statistics’ by James H. Blodgett. Copyright 1898. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Joumal o the American f Statistical Association.

’Ona Classification of the Problems of Statistical Inference’ by William
Edwards Deming. Copyright 1942. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, J o u m l o the American Statistical Association. f
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Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Joumal o the American f Statistical Associa tion. ON AGGRESSION by Konrad Lorenz. Translated by Majorie Kerr Wilson. Copyright 1963. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Harcourt, Brace & World, Inc. New York.

’On the Nature and Uses of Averages’ by J. Venn. Copyright 1891.
Reprinted by permission of the publisher, J o u m l o the Royal Statistical f Society.

‘On the Presentation of the Results of Sample Surveys as Legal
Evidence’ by William Edwards Deming. Copyright 1954. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, J o u m l of the American Statistical Association.

’On the Representation of Statistics by Mathematical Formula (concluded)’ by Francis Ysidro Edgeworth. Copyright 1899. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Journal o the Royal Statistical Soci~ty. f

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’On the Use of the Theory of Probabilities in Statistics Relating to Society’ by Francis Ysidro Edgeworth. Copyright 1913. Reprinted by

permission of the publisher, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. OPTICKS by Sir Isaac Newton. Copyright 1952. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Dover Publications, Inc. New York.

OUT OF THE CRISIS by William Edwards Deming. Copyright 1986. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, MIT and the W. Edwards Deming Institute. Published by MIT, Center for Advanced Educational Services. Cambridge, Massachusetts.
PARERGA AND PARALIPOMENA: SHORT PHILOSOPHICAL ESSAYS by Arthur Schopenhauer. Translated by E.F.J. Payne. Copyright 1974. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, The Clarendon Press. Oxford, UK. PATIENCE AND FORTITUDE by William Manners. Copyright 1976. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Harcourt Brace Jovanovich. New York. PHILOSOPHICAL WRITINGS OF PEIRCE by C.S. Peirce. Copyright 1955. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Dover Publications, Inc. New York. PHYSICS AND PHILOSOPHY by James Jeans. Copyright 1981. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Dover Publications, Inc. New York. ’Principles of Sampling’ by F. Mosteller. Copyright 1954. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Joumal o the American Statistical f Association. PROBABILITY AND CERTAINTY by Emile Borel. Copyright 1964. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Dover Publications, Inc. New York. PROBABILITY AND INDUCTION by W.C. Kneals. Copyright 1952. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, The Clarendon Press. Oxford, UK. PROBABILITY AND LIFE by Emile Borel. Copyright 1964. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Dover Publications, Inc. New York. REAL ESTATE LAW by Robert Kratovil. Copyright 1952. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Prentice-Hall/A Division of Simon & Schuster. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey. RESEARCH METHODS IN SOCIAL RELATIONS by Marie Jahoda, Morton Deutsch and Stuart W. Cook. Volume I. Copyright 1951. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Dryden Press. New York.

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RISING SUN by Michael Crichton. Copyright 1993. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Random House, Inc. New York. ROSENCRANTZ AND GUILDENSTERN ARE DEAD by Tom Stoppard. Copyright 1967. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Grove Press, Inc. New York. RUBEN, RUBEN by Peter De Vries. Copyright 1964. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Little, Brown and Company. Boston, Massachusetts. RULES OF THUMB by Tom Parker. Copyright 1983. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Houghton Mifflin Co. New York. SAMPLE DESIGN IN BUSINESS RESEARCH by William Edwards Deming. Copyright 1960. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. New York. SAMUEL BUTLERS NOTE-BOOKS by Samuel Butler. Edited by Geoffrey Keynes and Brian Hill. Copyright 1951. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Jonathan Cape. London, UK. SATIRES AND PERSONAL WRITINGS by Jonathan Swift. Copyright 1932. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Oxford University Press. Oxford, UK. 'Science and Society' by R.H. Coats. Copyright 1939. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Journal of the American Statistical Association. SCIENCE AND THE MODERN WORLD by Alfred North Whitehead. Copyright 1967. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Macmillan Publishing Company. New York. SENSE AND NONSENSE OF STATISTICAL INFERENCE by Chamont Wang. Copyright 1993. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Marcel Dekker, Inc. New York. SLOW LEARNER by Thomas Pynchon. Copyright 1984. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Little, Brown and Company. Boston, Massachusetts. SOME THEORY OF SAMPLING by William Edwards Deming. Copyright 1950. Reprinted by permission of The Estate of W. Edwards Deming. 'Some Uses of Statistics in Executive Control' by Leslie F. Hayford. Copyright 1936. Reprinted by permission of the publishers, J o u m l o the American Statistical Association. f STATISTICAL ADJUSTMENT OF DATA by William Edwards Deming. Copyright 1943. Reprinted by permission of The Estate of W. Edwards Deming.

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'Statistical Methods and Scientific Induction' by S r Ronald A. Fisher. i Copyright 1955. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Journal o f the Royal Statistical Society. STATISTICALPAPERS IN HONOUR OF GEORGE SNEDECOR by M.G. Kendall. Copyright 1972. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Iowa State University Press. Ames, Iowa. 'Statistics and Social Engineering' by Joseph S. Davis. Copyright 1937. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Journal of the American Statistical Association. STATISTICS FOR MODERN BUSINESS DECISIONS by Lawrence L. Lapin. Copyright 1973. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, Inc. New York. STUDIES IN SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY by H.E. Kyburg, Jr., and H.E. Smokler. Copyright 1959. Reprinted by permission of Henry Kyburg. TEACHERS TREASURY OF STORIES FOR EVERY OCCASION by M. Dale Baughman. Copyright 1958. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Simon & Schuster. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey. 'Teaching Statistical Quality Control for Town and Gown' by Edwin G. Olds. Copyright 1949. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, lournal of the American Statistical Association. TEN NIGHTS IN A BAR-ROOM AND WHAT I SAW THERE by Timothy Shay Arthur, edited by Donald A. Koch. Copyright 1964. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press. Cambridge, Massachusetts. THE ANALYSIS OF MATTER by Bertrand Russell. Copyright 1954. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Dover Publications, Inc. New York.

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THE BLIND WATCHMAKER WHY THE EVIDENCE OF EVOLUTION REVEALS A UNIVERSE WITHOUT DESIGN by Richard Dawkins. Copyright 1987. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, W.W. Norton & Company, Inc. New York.

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THE COMPLETE ROMAN DRAMA by George Duckworth. Copyright 1966. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Random House, Inc. New York. THE DEVIL’S DICTIONARY by Ambrose Bierce. Copyright 1958. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Dover Publications, Inc. New York. THE DOT AND THE LINE: A ROMANCE IN LOWER MATHEMATICS by Norton Juster. Copyright 1963. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Random House, Inc. New York. THE EDUCATION OF HENRY ADAMS by Henry Adams. Copyright 1946. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Random House, Inc. New York. THE EDUCATION OF T. C. MrrS by Lillian R. Lieber. Copyright 1944. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Harold Ober Associates, Inc. and W.W. Norton & Company, Inc. New York. THE ENDS OF POWER by H.R. Haldeman. Copyright 1978. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, New York Times Books. New York. THE EUSTACE DIAMOND by Anthony Trollope. Copyright 1983. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Oxford University Press. Oxford, UK. ’The Future of Data Analysis’ by John W. Tukey. Copyright 1962. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Annals of Mathematical

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THE LETTERS OF EVELYN WAUGH edited by Mark Amory. Copyright 1980. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, Houghton Mifflin Company. New York.
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THE MATHEMATICAL APPROACH TO BIOLOGY AND MEDICINE by Norman Bailey. Copyright 1967. Reprinted by permission of the publisher, John Wiley & Sons. Chichester, UK.
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Copyright 1960. . Journul o the American Statistical f Association.330 STATETICALLY S P E A K " 'Where do We Go From Here?' by John Tukey. Reprinted by permission of the publisher.

Eric T... The technical analysis of any large collection of data is a task for a highly trained and expensive man... Alfred North It requires a very unusual mind to undertake the analysis of the obvious.by their very felicity. 1 American Statistical Association Proschan. 2 Holmes. age of Sherman.the actuary is in the back seat screaming directions.. 5 analysis.. Pierre-Simon . 2 Cardozo. 1 unknown ..... 5 analysis of the instances Keynes.. or have you ever been. 4 331 ...if moreover it were vast enough to submit these data to analysis.. O.with the most surprising results. Frank Are you now. John Maynard But to argue. Susan The age of analysis... 1 Someone once asked an actuary how much 2 plus 2 was.G... 3 analysis of the obvious Whitehead. 1 actuary Karpansky. . Jr. a member of the American Statistical Association?.W..the actuary. 4 Unknown It always helps to know the answer when you are working toward the solution of a problem. 3 Laplace. 2 Bell... 217 analysis Allen. Not even the most subtle and skilled analysis can overcome completely the unreliability of basic data. Analytical and graphical treatment of statistics is employed by . Benjamin N.D.. R. without analysis of the instances... L. delay further analysis for fifty years..SUBJECT BY AUTHOR INDEX -Aactuaries Unknown Actuaries are funny people.. The repetition of a catchword can hold analysis in fetters for fifty years and more.

you mean he used probability analysis.. habit of Mill.be wary of analysts that try to quanhfy the unquantifiable. the investigation of difficult things by the method of analysis.. 6 Atherton. 'tis thou hast ravish'd me..H.. Ralph and Raiffa. Profoundly skill'd in Analytic.. 15 Byron.. Howard .preserve a good average. M. If at first you don't succeed.. 7 Britmica.332 STATISTICALLY SPEAKlNG than the conclusion of an analytical reasoner. See Bayesians average Alderson. ought to precede the method of composition.. probability Thomsett. David The cause that takes the rap when the process runs amok. data Tukey. 3 analytic Butler. 4 Ashley-Perry Statistical Axioms Dickson. 60 assumptions Kadane. If data analysis is to be well done... 5 analysis. so in natural philosophy. 3 analysis. C.the impression of a woman mav be more valuable . John Stuart The very excellence of analysis. Christopher Sweet Analytics. Sir Isaac As in mathematics...... "Oh. 4 analysis. your running about average. . not rules.. Lord A daily plague.. a great critic.. Samuel He was in Logic. 2 analytical reasoner Holmes. Gertrude . Michael C. 60-1 assignable cause Durand.. John Stuart The habit of analysis has a tendency to wear away the feelings.. lames Anthony analysis. 6 Billings. John W.. excellence of Mill.. 128 assessed probability Durand.. Sherlock .the figures that are obviously correct contain errors. method of Newton. The Encyclopaedia Expectation in the general sense may be considered as a kind of average. David One manipulated by the Intemal Revenue Service... 3 analytics Marlowe.G.... 5 analyst Keeney. 4 analysis. 4 analysis. Joseph I believe that assumptions are useful in statistical practice.but they are more hysterical than the average. Murphy's Laws of Deakly. Paul Numbers are tools. which in the aggregate may average on the whole with parturition.. 8 Froude. Josh .

of the individuals which compose the average. Peter ...the average of one generation.000 words a day . Stephen After careful comparison of your case with the average modem standard ... J. 10 Huxley. Josiah .the average was more than 3.. 17 Voltaire . O.. 15 Stoppard.... 6 average American Nixon. They had on average. 14 Slonim.J.. rather than a cold.the average age of women over forty is under forty. 10 Heller... From this Latin word derives our modem word average.....sixteen gold gods of average size. you know.we can afford to be perfectly indifferent to the fate.possibly take the place of many values ......it suggests Haverie-average.. . 17 average ability Bailey. Pynchon.there isn't exactly an average. 12 Leacock...the Average made lethal. 9 Harte. 9 Galton.y ou get an average of nearly eleven thousand brothers and sisters..... Thomas . Thomas D... 15 Tsu.. Tom The equanimity of your average tosser of coins.... Francis Bret Give me a man that is capable of a devotion to anything. 13 .. 10 Hooke.W. But an average.. 9 . 12 Moroney... Mark . bunting with a man on first loses a lot of runs.. Walter . Richard M.... or "statistically probable. Lao The average student hears of the Tao and gives it thought now and again. Morris James . Robert On the average..SUBJECT BY AUTHOR INDEX 333 ..on the average.. Joseph Wood .. There must be such a thing as a child with average ability. 10 Holmes.man in generaLon the average.. "average". he's comfortable.what is "normal" and what is "usual". 16 How can a single introduction of our own.. Make sure that the real average is what you are dealing with... Francis An Average is but a solitary fact. 14 Shaffer. M...".... 0.is one of the most extraordinary subjects of observation and study. Aldous . Roy A... 13 Redfield. 14 Stamp.. calculating average of all the virtues. 10 Henry.. 15 Twain... 11 Krutch... about a quarter of a suit of clothes. does not live above two-and-twenty years. 16 Venn.

.STATISTICALLY SPEAKlNG The average American is just like the child in the family.... 13 Quetelet. Arthur L. 11 Lieber... 7 average. 8 average man Foss.average minds discuss events.makes life unpleasant for anyone who is not content to be the average man. 16 average minds Rickover.. 6 average intelligence of scientists Carrel.nobody has an average education.. 8 average. 13 average civilized man Twain. Lillian R. and it therefore does not mend the matter. H.the average man is curled. 8 average value Galton.... 8 average intelligence Atherton..the average intellect of average men. Adolphe the average man.. Of itself an arithmetic average is more likely to conceal than to disclose important facts.. proper Wilde.. 10 average intellect Dickens. Mark The average man don’t like trouble and danger.... Sam Walter .. William Ralph ... 9 average. 17 average. arithmetic Bowley. statistical Krutch.. Oscar .. Stephen . Martin .. Francis The knowledge of an average value is a meager piece of information.public opinion..the average rate for the year as a whole. 8 Hubbard.. Gertrude The average intelligence is always shallow. 11 average human nature Hardy..”. 11 Inge..the number of engagements that go on seems to me considerably above the proper average. Mark The only very marked difference between the average civilized man and the average savage is... The concept of average was developed in Rhodian laws..... Charles .. 11 The average man is rich enough when he has a little more than he has got. Thomas ....it is scomed by average human nature. Alexis The best way of increasing the [average] intelligence of scientists would be to reduce their number. .... 16 average education Leacock. concept of Cohen. Elbert The average man believes a thing first...... 12 average family Juster...G. 14 average rate Freidman.. we‘re just the average family.. Joseph Wood . Norton “Oh.. 13 Twain.... What does this mean for The Average Man?. Morris R.

... Norton But averages aren’t real. 7 Brandies. 13 Venn.. Louis D. Claude Another very frequent application to biology is the use of averages... 18 Bernoulli Harris.“. Willford .. 12 averages Bemard.are always.clay tablets recording the minutes of the 1242 annual meeting of the Babylonical Statistical Association. Stan A mathematician in Reno. 18 Wang... Sidney Which Bernoulli do you wish to see?. or statistical averages. W.means that if six monkeys were thrown up in the air. I abhor averages. 18 Luchenbruch.. Florence . 14 -BBabylonical Statistical Association King.they’re just imaginary. 72 ..’hitting the target’. Alan The only remedy would seem to be to repeal the law of averages. A misunderstanding of Bemoulli’s theorem is responsible for one of the commonest fallacies in the estimation of probabilities.. 7 Froude. at least in physics. 7 averages.. Arthur L. not the units. 12 Nightingale. Great numbers and the averages resulting from them .. 9 Juster. but I have not seen any...is henceforth to be left to the law of averages. M. Peter There might also be some specialized terminology for Bayesians.... Bertrand A... chemical Bemard. Grover “You can’t fight the law of averages.. 17 averages...S.. Bayesians should also take care to distinguish their various denominations...656 varieties of Bayesians... 72 Bernoulli’s theorem Kneale.. 7 Bowley.there are at least 46.the question “How many legs does a normal man have?” should be answered by finding a statistical average. Tom The law of averages. either differential equations. law of Keegan. James Anthony We have to consider the million. 15 averages.. Why do we resort to averages at all?.. 72 Kelly-Bootle. J.. 15 Stoppard. Claude Chemical averages are also often used. Scientific laws.an inveterate habit of taking averages... statistical Russell. 12 Snood.. 214 Bayesians Bartlett.. John . 14 Stewart. Chamont ...SUBIECT BY AUTHOR INDEX 335 ....

. 23 Holmes... O.336 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING best estimate Durand..... Causation depends on an extraordinary tuming of iy.. 26 Pettie. David ... But he who.. 74 biometrician Fleiss... David R... blind to universal laws... Leonard0 There is no result in nature without a cause. 79 . Bertrand But we are not likely to find science retuming to the crude form of causality believed in by Fijians...W... 21 Froude.what is found in the effect was already in the cause.every fact which has a beginning has a cause. Joseph L. 28 causation Heise. ... Henri . Benjamin But great things spring from causalities. Blaise They saw the thing.. 23 cause Akenside. 26 Polybius -Ccausalities Disraeli.. but not the cause. Victor Great blunders are often make.. James Anthony Every effect has its cause. 225 biostatistician Unknown A biostatistician talks statistics to the biologist. Benedict By CAUSE of itself. 26 Pascal. whose essence involves existence.. like large ropes. 60 Binary Pynchon. that’s either there.. 231 blunders Hugo.. John Stuart . 20 Buddhist Maxim Every effect becomes a cause.. 21 causality Russell. 25 Ovid The cause is hidden .. 24 It is universally allowed that nothing exists without a cause.. Thomas But a hardon. 19 Bergson. Sees but effects.. George Sutch as the cause of everything is. real t .an estimate having optimum qualities. 26 Plotinus O n the assumption that all happens by Cause. unconscious of the c a u s e . or it isn’t.. 23 Hume. 28 Mill... 21 De Spinoza... 20 Da Vinci.. There was a biometrician named Mabel.every effect is a distinct event from its cause. of a multitude of fibers. 21 From a given determinate cause an effect necessarily follows.. 24 Matthew Wherefore by their fruits ye shall know them... Mark Give me to leam each secret cause. 27 Unknown I am not a heretic.. sutch wilbe the effect. I understand that.. David ...

.... Marcus In the series of things those which follow are always aptly fitted to those which have gone before.every event.S. 22 Do not clutch at sensual sweetness until it is ripe on the slow tree of cause and effect. 20 cause.. Immanuel Pure mathematics. 26 Proverb. Jean Jacques .. William For this effect defective comes by cause.. Latin The cause being taken away. Leo . secret Dryden. .cannot touch the question of cause and effect. 22 Cause and effect. 22 I prefer to play at Cause and Effect..... Jacques Every Effect Presupposes some Cause. Sherlock .must have some cause. Through known effects can trace the secret cause-... 27 Rohault. 19 Arthur. Latin After this... William ... 24 James. 23 cause.. 27 Shakespeare. 26 Proverb.. 27 It is the cause... T.. Gertrude The law of cause and effect does not hide in the realm of the unexpected ..for no more by the law of reason than by the law of nature can anything occur without a cause. therefore because of this.SUBIECT BY AUTHOR INDEX 337 .... means and ends. 28 Thou art the cause. 28 Unknown The cause is the same with a Barmter. the chancellors of God.the first morning of creation wrote What the last dawn of reckoning shall read...that severe reasoning from cause to effect.. 27 Tsu. Chuang Everything can be a “that“. Satya If the law of the relation of effect and cause does not exist. 29 cause and effect Aurelius. Ralph Waldo Cause and effect are two sides of one fact. John Happy the man. 28 Tolstoy.. 22 causes Aristotle Thus every action must be due to one or other of seven causes. 22 Strong men believe in cause and effect. 27 Rousseau. 20 Emerson... who studying Nature’s laws.... the effect is removed. 25 Kant.the impulse to seek cause is innate in the soul of man.. 22 Cause and effect.... 23 H u e . David This is as perfect an instance of the relations of cause and effect as any which we know either by sensation or reflection. 28 cause to effect Holmes.. 25 Prakash. law of Atherton..

. 31 certainty Dampier-Whetham. and trace them to their effects... Georg Man is a creature who searches for causes. Gottfried Wilhelm . Marshall ... John If one thing is more certain than another-which is extremely doubtful-. Charles Caleb We know the effects of many things.. 30 Hesiod He is a fool who leaves certainties for uncertainties...... 32 Walker. 31 Hoffer... 27 Taylor.. 25 Shakespeare. 21 Hume. 31 Jeans. 20 The most important events are often determined by very trivial causes. first Bemard. 30 Galsworthy.... 25 Lee.. 21 Colton.we can know nothing . 24 James. who has the skill to understand Nature’s hid causes. 20 causes. Claude First causes are outside the realm of science. David All effects follow not with like certainty from their supposed causes.. 23 certain Butler.. 21 De Spinoza. Samuel There is one thing certain. James Hopwood ..... 32 Leibniz. 24 From causes which appear similar we expect similar effects. Hannah Farnham Causes are often disproportionate to effects.some predictions have such a high probability that one tends to regard them as certain.. 29 causes. 20 Cicero The Causes of events are ever more interesting than the events themselves...for certain . Looking for long-term causes of things..... Eric We can be absolutely certain only about things we do not understand...... William Only a few look at causes.... Benedict . 33 certainties Bacon. William As in the night all cats are gray. primary Fourier...338 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING Virgil Happy. 28 . 25 Lichtenberg.it may be taken as morally certain.man is bom ignorant of the causes of things. Jean Baptiste Joseph Primary causes are unknown to us .. Francis The end of our foundation is the knowledge of causes.. J. Francis ... William There is occasions and causes why and wherefore in all things.if a man will begin with certainties he shall end in doubts.P. but the causes of few. so in the darkness of metaphysical criticism all causes are obscure. 20 Bacon.

...... 31 It was not a PERHAPS... Eric T. or luck.. 35 Bell.. 31 Certitude is not the test of certainty. Heads I win. George Bemard I must have certainty. 32 Shaw.the infinite probability of certainty is never reached. 36 Cicero .. 36 Butler.. 38 . Fred Chance is the fool’s name for fate. William Every night and every mom Some to misery are bom .. 37 Darwin. Francis Harry Compton Chance is the only source of true novelty. O.W. 35 Buchner. 35 Bogart. or fortune.. merely depends on a concatenation of circumstances.. 35 Blake. But certainty generally is illusion... 30 Holmes. 32 Mansfield. Charles Caleb .. she walks into mine!...is the same in kind wherever and by whomsoever it is experienced. 37 Cowper.. 37 Crick.. William Not a resemblance.. Samuel I’ve heard cunning stagers Say fools for arguments use wagers. 31 Johnson. Eric A Frenchman. William A fool must now and then be right.. 32 Shakespeare..W.. 37 Surely nothing is so at variance with reason and stability as chance. Games of chance are probably as old as human desire . 32 chance Ambler.. O. two and two still make four...left to the working out of what we may call chance. 31 Holmes. 37 Colton. 32 Locke.the balls are constantly producing effects from mere chance. 36 We.. John ..SUBJECT BY AUTHOR INDEX 339 . and repose is not the destiny of man. Samuel When speculation has done its worst. 36 Chamfort.. Sebastien Roch Chance is a nickname of Providence. 30 Froude. James Anthony Certainty.. Tails you lose. by chance.ascribe much both of a man’s character and actions to chance. Charles .. Humphrey Of all the gin joints in all the towns in all the world..the highest probability amounts not to certainty. Lord As mathematical and absolute certainty is seldom to be attained in human affairs.once said that chance was a nickname for Providence... Ludwig What we still designate as chance. 34 Astaire..but things that happen by chance cannot be certain. but a certainty. Jr.

. It fell to earth 1 know not where .and the lot fell upon Jonah. 43 The power which erring men call chance.. the Mind is easily drawn into a belief..... 40 Guest. David Though there be no such thing as Chance in the world .. Samuel Nothing was ever said with uncommon felicity.Chance rules all above. Sir Arthur Stanley . with respect to which our ignorance will not permit us to Derceive their causes. Dexter I should estimate. 48 Longfellow.... but by the cooperation of chance.......I shall certainly hit on a tune... 43 When we look at the plants and bushes clothing an entangled bank.that there is one chance in ten nothing will happen with the bomb ... .340 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING If chance be generally acknowledged to be the author of most discoveries in almost all the arts.A.. an infinite number of events. 41 Hume. 38 De Moivre. Blaise A game is being played at the extremity of this infinite distance where heads or tails will tum up . Abraham .. John It’s all chance. to stand or fall as is the game of war . 43 Pascal.. John Chance govems all. 39 Eldridge. 42 Nietzsche. or pass away into what is not..some of the Problems about Chance having a great appearance of Simplicity. William There must be chance in the midst of design. but we can’t stop now. 39 Eddington. 43 Paley. 41 Johnson... we are tempted to attribute their proportional numbers and kinds to what we call chance. 42 Jonah . Judith . 38 Democritus Nothing can come into being from that which is not...it is chance that rules the mortal sphere....chance. 42 There wasn’t more than one chance in God-knows-what... and charge at the foe.. 41 .. Friedrich No conqueror believes in chance... Paul Value depends upon price and price upon chance and caprice.. that their Solution may be attained by the meer Strength of natural good Sense.. C. John . 42 Milton. 41 Homer Therefore tum.. 39 Galsworthy...it is chance and not perfection that rules the world. 39 Euripides . 40 Helvetius... 38 Dryden. 42 Masters. Henry Wadsworth I shot an arrow into the air.. that is..

chance favors only the prepared mind. 46 Schopenhauer.. 47 You must take your chance..but a distinction made between those which are endowed with mind.. 46 Shakespeare. Henri And first. 48 Thiery. which thou canst not see. 44 Poincare... Alexander All chance. 48 Terence .. Friedrich There’s no such thing as chance..life is 6 to 5 against... Alfred Lord And grasps the skirt of happy chance... 48 Of Fate.. with error. 43-4 Both kinds of causes should be acknowledged . 44 But in reality they can do neither.... and Chance..SUBJECT BY AUTHOR INDEX Cleopatra’s nose had it been shorter. 47 Shelley... William . for they cannot make a man either wise or foolish.. 47 Give up yourself merely to chance and hazard .. 47 As things done by chance..... life is 9 to l 5 against. what is chance?. Damon . 48 341 Runyon..and those which are deprived of intelligence and always produce chance effects without order or design.chance is an empty word without sense.. Louis . 49 Unknown . 43 Plato .. we could not play with it any game of chance.. 43 Peers. direction. P.H.. 47 Come. 43 Pasteur.. Arthur Consider that chance. Paul Henri. bring me unto my chance..the race is not to the swift..things happen that we wouldn’t even dare hope for... Percy Bysshe Fate.. 49 Thucydides .there is a five-tenths chance that the cat’s alive..... Leo But what is chance?.. Frederik .. 47 If chance will have me King.. 44 They say that the greatest and fairest things are the work of nature and of chance. 45 Pope. Occasion. 45 The greatest bit of chance is the birth of a great man. its brother . and God..... Baron d’Holbach.. 45 If such a mind existed.. 46 Scott. 48 Tennyson.. 44 Pohl....in human affairs chance is almost everything.. and whatever they do is the result of chance. Sir Walter Chance will not do the work .T. 44-5 Chance is only the measure of our ignorance. ... 45 Proverbs ... 46 Schiller..we usually blame chance for whatever does not happen as we expected...the lottery of my destiny ... Time.. which. and Chaos old. 49 Tolstoy. Chance and Change. John Al things considered..

William Edwards A chunk is a convenient slice of a population. 50-50 Harvey.rational action is merely a question of calculating the chances...... 38 chance.... Chinaman's Disney. 39 Herodotus ... Enrico A general is a man who takes chances. 36-7 Fermi. employ the chi-square test incorrectly. 36 Chesterson. doctrine of De Moivre. Emile Can there be laws of chance?. appearance of Paley.. disastrous Shakespeare. Dorothy She hadn't a Chinaman's chance.. Max The conception of chance enters into the very first steps of scientific activity. 41 Unknown You have two chances.the Doctrine of Chances has a Tendency to promote Play. and not men chances. Abraham . 41 chance. slaves of Shakespeare.. 46 Vir$ Chance sways all.. Don It has been increasingly apparent over a period of several years that psychologists.. 40 chances Aron. 47 chances.. then 9 times out of 10 it will. William The appearance o chance will f always bear a proportion to the ignorance of the observer... taken in the aggregate... Paul If there is a 50-50 chance that something can go wrong. William .. 36 chance. 49 Wisdom liketh not chance... 74 chances.342 S TATlS TICALLY S P E A K " Age at death is a chance variable. Samuel . laws of Borel.. whimsical effects of Galton. 42 No more chance than a snowball in Hell. 43 chance. 49 Heads or Tails.. 60 .man's body is what it is through having been molded into its present shape by the chances and changes of an immense time. 38 chi-square Lewis.. 73 chunk Deming. 49 chance.we profess ourselves to be the slaves of chance and flies. 35 chance. Raymond . Gilbert Keith .it is well to bear in mind that chances rule men. 48 chance.. conception of Bom.. William Wherein I spake of most disastrous chances.the chances are twenty to one that it has nothing to do with them.. Francis The whimsical effect of chance in producing stable results are common enough. 35 Butler..

50 Bialac.SUBJECT BY AUTHOR INDEX coincidence Holmes. What is common sense?. 53 Galton... Nigel . 52 Balchin. 54 Unknown The quantity of the correlation is inversely proportional to the density of the control. 154 Keynes. 51 Laplace. Sherlock . 50 Belloc..W. appreciations of common sense were till then devoid.common sense is nothing more than a deposit of prejudices laid down in the mind before you reach eighteen. 193 correlation Aron.W. though sound.a definiteness and precision of which these crude.there's a positive correlation between penetration and height of the man firing.. 273 conjecture Holmes.. Robin Reading the twenty-sixth chart.. 50 Bennett. Hilaire . Pierre-Simon .. 51 confounded effect Unknown Beware of the confounded effect!. Raymond There is no correlation between the cause and the effect... Sherlock The odds are enormous against its being a coincidence. 54 Correlation..at last a sufficiency of statistics comes very near to common sense. 60 common sense Amauld. 51 Einstein..the theory of probabilities is basically only common sense reduced to calculus. David Term applied to each mode of a bimodal distribution. Richard N... index of Galton. 52-3 Fisher. 51 Crofton.. Francis .correlation.. M. Albert . Arnold And then he knew that something within him more powerful than his common sense would force him to stake that five-franc piece. 52 Cook.. 24 commode Durand. John Maynard Common sense tells us that some inductive arguments 343 are stronger than others .is a phrase much used in biology. Lewis Birds of a feather flock together. one correlation suddenly occurred to Jason.. .. Antoine Common sense is not really so common. Statistics are no substitute for common sense. The futile elaboration of innumerable measure of correlation.we come into those realms of conjecture where the most logical mind may be at fault.... Francis . 52 Carroll. Sir Ronald A. 51 Howe.. 51 What is the thing we call Common Sense?. E.

. 54 correlation. thorough.. 55 Scientific data are not taken for museum purposes . William Edwards Anyone can easily misuse good data.. 54 Correlation. 57 Hooke. Data are often presented in a form that is not immediately clear... good and bad.. . Edmund E.. 74 -Ddata Berkeley.. Sir Walter A..do the best you c& with . The correlational method. It does not follow that because something can be counted it therefore should be counted. Harold L. for its part.344 STATlSTlCALLY SPEAKlNG .. Karl Biological phenomena in their numerous phases. 54 counted Enarson. Sherlock .. 56 Fisher.J. 57 It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has the data. we should endeavor to obtain some. L. 56 Data! Data! Data!. there ain’t a curve in the world that can save you. scientific effort to get correct data. Francis My data were very lax....there is a vast field of topics that fall under the laws of correlation. Robert If you can’t have an experiment.. David Deified numbers.such a thing existed as an ”Index of Correlation”. as we are practically without data. laws of Galton. Austin I can only suggest that. 56 critical ratio Unknown The critical ratio is Z-ness. 57 No data yet . 53 correlations Pearson. 55 Deming..... 219 curve Unknown When you get an 8 on the midterm.. 55 Durand. R. economical and social.. 53 correlational method Cronbach.. There is no substitute for honest. No human mind is capable of grasping in its entirety the meaning of any considerable quantity of numerical data.. statistical Dickson. 56 Galton... 56 Holmes.it is an error to argue in front of your data. were seen to be only differentiated from the physical by the intensity of their correlations. 56 There is only one kind of whiskey. but two broad classes of data. A.. Paul There is a statistical correlation between the number of initials in an Englishman’s name and his social class. 60 Ehrenberg. Francis ..S.. can study what man has not learned to control...C. 56 Freeman.

J.. the cost... Alexander A mighty maze! but not without a plan.it is necessary to have some data on which to calculate probabilities.. 113 dice Bierce. 67 Dryden.. limited Mellor.E..W.. Sir Ronald A. The chief requirement is simplicity. "Do you have any controls?". Fred . 67 Einstein. David The number of fetters on the statistician. E. scientific Thurber. The conception of degrees of freedom is not altogether easy to attain. 63 degrees of freedom Durand... 58 Unknown Accept them as they are or deny their existence.. Bertrand When a man of science speaks of his "data" .. Sir Ronald A. 68 . John 'lis fate that flings the dice. i. Lewis I think that will be the best plan. do try to do so with a properly designed experiment..... L.. L.. 58 data.SUBJECT BY AUTHOR INDEX whatever data you can gather .. Albert But there should be statistical laws with definite solutions.radio data serves like a good dog on a hunt... The preliminary examination of most data is facilitated by the use of diagrams. 58 If at first you don't succeed. 65 Hooke.to put the dice into the box for another throw.. James We have no scientific data whatever on clock-eating. transform your data set..C.. Robert If you're trying to establish cause-and-effect relationships. 57 data. laws which compel God to throw the dice in each individual case. 57 Russell. 64 design of experiment Carroll.. 345 We wl consider the problem of il designating an experiment by means of w i h this hc assertion can be tested.. 65 Fisher. 66 diagrams Fisher.. Ambrose . E. 57 Hoyle. whether he have sufficient to finish it?. 66 Russell. By no process of sound reasoning can a conclusion drawn from limited data have more than a limited application.. 65-6 Pope...e....J. 64 lippett. 67 Cicero Four dice are cast and a Venus throw results.C. 65 Peacock. 66 The Bible For which of you intending to counteth build a tower . 58 lippett. .. 58 define Voltaire Define your terms .

69 Shakespeare.. William And by the hazard of the spotted die.. 69 Mallarmb.the diversities in the shapes of the eggs of different hens...Nature's dice are always loaded . 68 The dice of God are always loaded... DuBose Roll dem bones . at any rate.. Thomton We were shaken into existence like dice out of a box.. 41 Hood.. Paul . Ralph Waldo . G... 184 I. 68 Eldridge.. 70 die Bierce. Ambrose A cube of cheese no larger than a die. William . 59 -Eeffect Nietzsche. at which I am frankly guessing. 287 doubt Gilbert and Sullivan Of what there is no manner of doubt . 70 And I will stand the hazard of the die. 70 Polya. 68 Hawking. S. Andrew Men permitted themselves to eat only every second day..346 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING Plutarch The die is cast....who cast the dice on the bathroom tiles?. 72 Unknown Monique is exponentially distributed. 70 Wilder.. 70 differences Galton.. Thomas (1789-1845) For dice will run the contrary way . 68 Heyward. Francis If we knew the little differences which divide one man from another.it is necessary that it either should or should not take place to-morrow. 69 Suidas Midas on the dice gives the best advice. 69 Lang..the dice are loaded!..as the dice of chance decree.. and tried to forget their hunger by playing at draughts and dice..H.. Richard If the prior distribution.. H. Friedrich Before the effect one believes in other causes than after the effect. 286 distribution Aristotle . ..... 69 Ritsos. 69 Milman. 26 enquiry De Moivre. It therefore seems that Einstein was doubly wrong when he said that God does not play dice. Yannis ... 71 Hamming... I of dice possess the science.. 71 ... am convinced that He does not throw dice.. Abraham Let the Reader chuse. StCphane -it A Throw of the Dice Will Never Abolish Chance. 75 diversities Harvey...we should have the key to most of life's riddles.... 68 Emerson.

171 err Adams. F.. 77 Colton. 80 erroneous reading Anscombe. 76 . 77 Cowper. Franklin I err in company with Hume .J.. possible Tukey.. 77 Da Vinci... 76 Cage.. Emile The problem of error has preoccupied philosophers since the earliest antiquity. William Man... John He’s more than mortal that ne’er err’d at all... problem of Borel. Francis Ysidro However we define error. One sufficiently erroneous reading can wreck the whole of a statistical analysis.to those to which I applied them. 76 Hobbes. James Anthony No vehement error can exist in this world with impunity. The calibration of the weight is valuable just because its possible error is known. Ronald . 78 Erasmus. the idea of calculating its extent may appear paradoxical.. 78 Evans. 81 Russell. Edward Equiprobability in the physical world is purely a hypothesis .. 81 error. Lewis No error at all!. John An error is simply a failure to adjust . Samuel Error and mistake are infinite. on the dubious waves of error toss’d. 77 Edgeworth. Alfred North There is great room for error here. Thomas Nature itself cannot err... 78 Froude.SUBJECT BY AUTHOR INDEX equiprobability Kasner. 79 err‘d Pomfret. law of Galton. Charles Caleb ... 71 error. John W.error is always more busy than ignorance. Francis It has been objected. 80 error. 79 Gilbert and Sullivan An error?.no one bats a thousand.. Bergen 347 No error is harmless. Cheryl Always expect to find at least one error when you proofread your own statistics. Charles Sanders ..... law of frequency of Galton..that I pushed the application of the Law of Frequency of Error somewhat too far. Francis The primary objects of the Gaussian Law of Error were exactly opposed.. 76 error Butler. 82 error..no man of self-respect ever now states his results without affixing to it its probable error. throw light on this error. 71 error. 77 Carroll. 81 Whitehead. Leonard0 0 mathematicians.. Desiderius Error is Prolific.. probable Peirce.. 79 Reagan..

Edwin Their errors were subsequently found to be very considerable. 80 Newton. type 111 Unknown A Type 111 error is a good solution to the wrong problem. 273 examinations Raleigh.. Henry David One cannot too soon forget his errors. . 273 Wilde.348 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING We know not to what are due the accidental errors. vis. standard Deming... Sir Isaac . theory of Fisher. Sir Ronald A. 78 errors. 83 Bloch. John Errors. Alfred N.. 274 In examinations the foolish ask questions that the wise cannot answer. but in the artifiers.. 274 expected value Durand. Henri ...irrationally held truths may be more harmful than reasoned errors. S r Ronald A.. W. i It is doubtful if ”Student” ever realized the full importance of his contribution to the Theory of Errors.. 81 errors Chappell.. 81 errors of the second kind Fisher. 81 error.the errors are not the art. 78 Huxley.S. 73 Thoreau... 78-9 Poincar6.. Arthur error. 77-8 Watson. William Edwards Precision is expressed by an international standard..the attainment of scientific truth has been erected.. Sir Walter In an examination those who do not wish to know ask questions of those who cannot tell... 80 Poincare. 81 error. Oscar Examinations are pure humbug from beginning to end.. like straws.. 77 Dryden. type IV Unknown A Type I error is a wrong V solution to the wrong problem.. the standard error.. The phrase “Errors of the Second Kind”. upon surface flow. David One that the sample average will almost never equal. 60 experiment Bacon. 80 examination Raleigh.. Francis But the method of experiment which men now make use of is blind and stupid . Sir Walter Examinations measures Examinees.quantities which are called errors in one case. . 79 Jeavons... 80 . may really be most important and interesting phenomena in another investigation. A standard error is just as bad as any other error. Thomas H..by the help of scientific errors. Henri A final word about the theory of errors..

61 experiment. David something has gone wrong... 86 Kapitza. Philippus Aureolus good right to sneer. 85 The Bible Godwin... Lewis modem investigation. 86 Every experiment may be said Poincark. 83 experiment?.. Max never discover new paths... Thomas H. 84 Every experiment is like a Eldridge. less selfish point of view. you would have a Paracelsus. Pyetr Leonidovich that his main contribution .. when tested science.. Maurice G... 87 No experiment can be more Unknown precarious than that of a Diversity of treatment has been half-confidence..which I a m Experiment. 84 forever. Gertrude The statistician who supposes experiment..experiment is measurement. 85 If your experiment needs He can perhaps say what the statistics.. 86 Cahier. Experiment is the mother of Ancient traditions.... Sir Ronald A.it being justly esteemed an 83 unpardonable temerity to The experiment may be judge the whole course considered a success if.theory is a good thing but to the planning of an experiment will involve a good experiment lasts statistical the0ry.... 83 of nature from one single Browning. Charles Huxley. 86 Darwin. 85 from a more general and Fisher... If you knew some of the n Hiawatha Designs a experiments... 88 . Henri to exist only in order to Experiment is the sole source of give the facts a chance truth. Ralph Waldo must attack the question All life is an experiment.. Charles Kendall. 86 This is a most interesting Jefferson.. 8 3 4 ..SUBIECT BY AUTHOR INDEX 349 If an experiment works. 86 trying.. Robert experiment. Ernest hypothesis. William Prove all things. Hume. 86 Those who fear muddy feet will Planck. Paul weapon. 83 by the severe process of Carroll.. John Why think? Why not try the sake..... . 87 experiment died of.Celia criticism leveled against the .. Thomas experiment... 87 of disproving the null Rutherford. 85 responsible for much of the Green.. 85 Just an experiment for candour’s Hunter.in the full tide of successful Cox. If one wishes to obtain a definite 85 answer from nature one Emerson.

Sherlock . Ralph Waldo . they give it a name .. Henri It is often said that experiments must be made without preconceived idea.a single fact in all its bearings. 87 experiments Poincark. 98 Laut. Latin The fact speaks for itself....he had one eye upon fact... 91 Browning.. 91 Emerson.there are many arts among mankind which are experimental.. Frederick A fact is no simple thing.. 90 To an ordinary person a fact is a fact.. 97 Huxley. 90 Bemard.. 96 Holmes. Alfred North . 98 Those who refuse to go beyond fact rarely get as far as fact. eleven phases of an Unknown Wild enthusiasm . H e r " Allow me to express now .... 99 Phrase.... 88 experimental Plato . 87 experimenter Weyl... 61 -Ffact Alcott. Harold When there is no explanation.no fences avail to keep a fact a fact. The ultimate umpire of all things in Life is-Fact.. Robert This plain. 88 Whitehead.. Max Nothing is more interesting to the true theorist than a fact If an experiment is not worth doing at all. for she was always experimenting with them. plump fact.. Mark The other animals are glad. 91 Budgell.. 100 Planck. 87 explanation Fabing..when a fact appears to be opposed to a long train of deductions . Eustace Plain matters of fact are terrible stubborn things.. 94 A little fact is worth a whole limbo of dreams . 97 .. 89 Barry.. 98 James.. Claude A fact is nothing in itself..my deepest respect for the work of the experimenter.. Agnes C. Louisa May . Henry The fatal futility of Fact.. Thomas H.. 88 No experiment is ever a complete failure.. 88 experimenting Twain.. .. 98 There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact....350 STATlS TICAL LY SPEAKING Entrenching himself behind an undeniable fact.experiment is nothing else than a mode of cooking the facts...... 94 Gilbert and Sullivan Her taste exact for faultless fact. and the other on Genesis. 88 experiment... it is not worth doing well.. 88 You must be using the wrong equipment if an experiment works.....

101 Roberts. 219 facts Abbott. 90 "Well facts are facts. Factor analysis is useful especially in those domains where basic and fruitful concepts are essentially lacking. 89 i Barrie.. 104 factor analysis Eco... Vissarion Grigorievich . 89 Balchin. 92 .... 103 Tindall. 91 Bums. 105 They remain 'stubbom fact' .with a true view all the data harmonize.. 89 Arnold. 102 Shaw. 91 Carlyle.89 The facts seemed certa n .M.. 90 Barry. George Bemard A mere fact will never stop an Englishman.". Robert Facts are chiels that winna ding. 210 Thurston.. 90 Browning.. 101 Poincare. 104 Whitehead. 91 But enough of facts!. but with a false one the facts soon clash. Richard No matter of fact can be mathematically demonstrated.. Matthew Matters of fact. 104 There is nothing in the real world which is merely an inert fact. Aristotle . Alfred North But a fact 'contrary' is consciousness in germ... Umberto You know what this is called today? Factor analysis. everything will crumble or be falsified.are very stubbom things.. Robert But facts are facts and flinch not.. .. he hardly can. S r J. Claude Facts are neither great or small in themselves.. Henry 351 i ....... 104 It was an ultimate fact. Ludwig ... 89 Adams.L.. Nora But it was a fact. Edwin A. L. 90 Bemard. From dreams I proceed to facts.. ..." said T i y sulkily. 91 Buchner.. 103 Whatley. I think. 219 It is not wise for a statistician who knows factor analysis to attempt problems in a science which he has not himself mastered. coercive...in the long run there is no contending against facts..facts without ideas are just the sweepings of the brain and memory.. Nigel "Am I supposed to give all the facts... 90 If the facts used as the basis for reasoning are ill-established or erroneous.SUBJECT BY AUTHOR INDEX which directly contradicts a the0ry. Facts were never very pleasing to him... 90 Belinski.. Matthew Deny the facts altogether..... Henri A fact is a fact. Thomas I grow to honor facts more and more. Frederick Facts are to begin with.

95 Facts can be accurately known to us only by the most rigid observation.. Paul Combining superstition with fact is often as efficacious as breaking rocks with fists.. but conceived facts. 93 Eddington. Samuel McChord The trouble with facts is that there are so many of them. Let's go and watch TV. 92 First accumulate a mass of Facts. 95 Carroll. 93 Eliot. 94 Froude. James Anthony Facts are no longer looked in the face. Barbara Let's get the facts.. 95 Garson.. Jerome Every lawyer knows that the name of the game is what label you succeed in imposing on the facts... Lewis Clearly more Facts were needed...... Joseph The language of facts.. 94 Fabing... 92 Cohen. 94 No facts are to me sacred. Harold Facts are not science. Some facts are so incredible that they are believed at once. 94 Emerson. as if facts could explain anything. Sir Arthur Stanley With fuller knowledge we should sweep away the references to probability and substitute the exact facts.. Arthur C. 92 Conrad... Ralph Waldo I distrust the facts and the inferences.. 93 In this life we want nothing but Facts. 94 We hew and saw and plane facts to make them dovetail with our prejudices... but facts were made for us. 93 Eldridge.352 STATlSTlCALLY SPEAKING are not probabilities. 95 These are facts which no casuistry can explain away. 92 They demand facts from him. Marion Facts make life long-not years. George You seem to have a decided faculty for digesting facts as evidence.... 95 It is through a conviction of the inadequacy of all formulas to cover the facts of nature... 92 Crothers. Albert I am absolutely convinced that one will eventually arrive at a theory in which the objects connected by laws . 94 Eliott. 92 Clarke.. 94 Facts only emphasize that men are guided by fancies.. Charles Facts and Figures! Put 'em down. F..... 93 Dickens. 95 The necessitarian fall back upon the experienced reality of facts. 95 We may make our own opinions.. 93 The labors of others have raised for us a n immense reservoir of important facts. 93 Now.. 92 Crawford.. what I want are facts.. 93 Einstein.. Ebenezer Facts are stubbom things.

99 Heyworth. 96 What you want are facts. Ivan Huxley. they must be Facts are not much use. Sherlock they always emphasize the facts that they are not sure. 99 The method of how considered as facts. perhaps others may find the I’m not afraid of facts. Raymond U . 100 explanation. 98 Ozick. psychologists as scientists Get the facts!.. disposed of. Maier.W... commonly called ”facts”.the most interesting facts are beyon’ all argument. 98 Pirandello. Luigi James. 96 dispose of facts is of special interest. William The facts are to blame my I have to forge every sentence in friend.. Alan Rene those we t i k simple... Owen The more facts one has. O. 100 because they are ignored..when technical people talk honor in conversation..you do find it very hard to tackle the facts. 101 Kipling. opinions. The acts and facts of to-day.. 101 the teeth of irreducible and Plautus stubbom facts... John Facts do not cease to exist Facts are not all equal... 98 Facts speak for themselves. 99 The facts of greatest outcome are LaSage.. Cynthia If you will find the facts. Charlotte P. 96 100 Oppenheimer. 97 Pavlov. 97 Facts are carpet-tacks under the All generous minds have a horror of what are pneumatic tires of theory...SUBIECT BY AUTHOR INDEX 353 Gilman. research substitutes facts for 101 hunches. Austin bullies. Robert A. not Holmes.F. 97 100 Ovid A further knowledge of facts is Believe the facts. N. 101 An impartial and reliable Science is built up with facts.. Robert many times... 98 Peers.. . Compare. collect facts. the To all facts there are laws. 99 Queneau.. Henri Just statin’ eevidential facts . Facts are ventriloquists’ 100 dummies. 99 those which may serve Kratovil.. 97 Holmes. 100 necessary.R. 278 Heinlein.. Julius Robert Facts always yield the place of .. Florence make. Sir Geoffrey Meredith... preemptory facts are OMalley. 101 hn Facts are stubbom thines.... Oliver the theory..... 99 better judgment one can Nightingale. . 96 If the facts do not conform to Heaviside. Rudyard Poincare. Aldous Learn. 99 Absolute.

Ambrose Belief without evidence.. 103 Terence Let us look at the facts.. 104 Unknown My mind is made up. 108 Strong..... 102 Russell.. J.. Jessamyn We want the facts to fit the preconceptions.. as the saying is... Alfred North A chain of facts is like a barrier reef. 91 figure Moroney.. 62 forecast Fiedler. Dudly . 107 Hippocrates It appears a most excellent thing for the physician to cultivate. JoAnn Fact were facts. Justice Geoffrey Facts speak louder than statistics. 103 Smollett... With solid facts on hand . 107 He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. Tom Comment is free but facts are on expense.. George Bemard In Russia we face facts. 108 I beg to advise you of the following facts of which I happen to be the equally impartial and horrified witness. 107 Henry.which seeks general laws connecting a number of particular facts. 104 West. Patrick I know of no way of judging the future but by the past. Edgar R. Lydia A forecast is a forecast is a forecast. Oscar Facts fled before philosophy like frightened things.... 103 Twain. 107 If you have to forecast.. 104 Whitehead.. Science... . M.W. do not confuse me with facts...is a knowledge of a certain kind. 59 fakt Billings.. Mr.make your forecast by asking a carefully selected probability sample of 300 others who don’t know the answer either. 102 Ross. 105 Wilde...354 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING faith Bierce. Alexis L.. Bertrand A.. forecast often.. 105 . 102 Shapere. 107 Mellor. 107 The moment you forecast you know you’re going to be wrong . Greek He who guesses right is the prophet.account for the facts. Mark Get your facts first.... Tobias Facts are facts. Nearly every inference we make with respect to any future event is more or less doubtful.. The words figure and fictitious both derive from the same Latin root. Josh It is a statistikal fakt. 102 Romanoff.. 103 Stoppard. 103 Streatfield. 108 Proverb.J. 102 Shaw.

.SUBJECT BY AUTHOR INDEX Business will improve.. 108 355 Strong. 106 foresee Poincark. 112 gambling Booth... 109 forecasters Fiedler.. 111 Pompidou. he says... Mario As gamblers believed mystically in their luck so Gronevelt believed in percentages. 111 Lichtenberg.. Charles Gambling is increasing beyond what you could imagine. 111 . Georg People don’t like to choose #1 in a lottery.. Auguste The aim of every science is foresight. the quickest is with aamblina. Georges There are three roads to ruin. The herd instinct among forecasters makes sheep look like independent thinkers.. Lydia Two plus two is four? Not to this forecaster. 109 Will he ever be able to correlate all these facts into one forecast that makes sense?. Raymond Foreknowledge of the future makes it possible to manipulate both enemies and supporters. 107 forecasting De Jouvenel. 108 foresight Compte. especially about the future. Edgar R.. gambling possesses undeniable virtues.. Edgar R. 108 foreknowledge &on..unless it takes a tum for the worse.. 109 The correct prediction will strike suddenly . 110 forecaster Strong. Bertrand Forecasting in economics is an activity fully licensed in the City of Action ... Marshall Men have always valued the ability to predict future events . Michael C. 111 Kasner.. 106 Thomsett. 108 His forecasts could have been presented at the deadline data .. 110 Walker. 109 forecasts Penjer... Henri It is far better to foresee even without certainty than not to foresee at all.. Our president respected the guy you’re replacing and had great faith in his forecasting abilities... Michael We are making forecasts with bad numbers . 156 -Ggamblers Puzo. 106 Fiedler. 109 Voltaire It is said that the present is pregnant with the future. Forecasting is very difficult. Lydia He’s fed in enough data for a dozen forecasts.. Edward In moderation..

Frederick. 113 -Hharuspex Cicero How could one haruspex look another in the face without laughing?.... 118 Newton.. he who loses remains sorrowful... 116 graph points Crichton. Michael You can draw a lot of curves through three graph points. It pays to keep wide awake in studying any graph. 37 hyperexponential Unknown Keep your hyperexponential away from me!.. 114 Proverb.. 114 Playfair..... Chinese A picture is worth more than ten thousand words. and time. Will You must never tell a thing. 120 I frame no hypotheses. Ivan A sketch tells me as much in a glance as a dozen pages of print. 74 hypotheses Copemicus. Frederick Hypothesis.. 114 Shakespeare.. Nicolaus Since the newness of the hypotheses of this work .. 114 Tugenev. 115 graphing Albinak.is an inference based on knowledge.. Albert In our scientific expectation we have grown antipodes. 120 hypothesis Asquith......notwithstanding any contrary hypotheses that may be imagined. Jerome Seymour . Sir Isaac . R.. 117 Bruner...356 STATISTICALLY SPEAKlNG graphs Pearl... You believe in God playing and I in perfect laws. 114 God Einstein. Michael I'll give you a graphic display . by parts of space.. 117 Barry. 39 graph Advertisement Every picture tells a story. One picture is worth ten thousand words. 113 graphical integrity Tufte. 106 hazard Dante When the game of hazard is broken up. You must illustrate it.. M. Graphical integrity is more likely to result if these six principles are followed. When graphing a function. Judea Despite the prevailing use of graphs as metaphors for communicating.. 113 Moroney.J. Herbert A pretty hypothesis which explains many things. William Dost thou love pictures?...... William As to the propriety and justness of representing sums of money. Marvin J... 113 graphic Crichton.. Edward R. 114 Rogers. 113 Bemard.

as be useful. Sherlock . please. There is. Laurence It is the nature of an hypothesis . 123 . 120 Steme. established itself by a cumulative process.. 118 hypothetical Baez. 118 Freud... David But suspicion is a thing very few people can entertain without letting the hypothesis tum.. Konrad It is a good exercise for a research scientist to discard a pet hypothesis every day before breakfast. 118 Cort. Michael C. Leon A round square or a wooden iron is an absurdity and consequently an impossibility.. Sigmund . 121 hypothesis.. So then I said that our hypothesis had not included the entire scope of probabilities. 119 . 117 -Iimpossibility Chestov. and observation conforms to hypothesis.... .. may. 119 Lewis..the slaying of a beautiful hypothesis by an ugly fact. C.SUBJECT BY AUTHOR INDEX The shrewd guess. 118 Fabing.into fact.. my dear young friend.... the fertile hypothesis....to work out any hypothesis to its logical conclusion.. Hypothesis.our hypothesis may gradually become a solution. 118 Evans. 119 Huxley.. 118 We see what we want to see. a truer one..... Joan .. 117 Cohen.. 121 Unknown Something murdered by facts. 117 Carroll..... or more useful than..no genuine progress in scientific insight through the Baconian method of accumulating empirical facts without hypothesis. 120 Thomsett. Morris R. William A false hypothesis.... Bergen An honorable man will not be bullied by a hypothesis. which way I ought to go from here?. Harold Many confuse hypothesis and theory.S.. Thomas H.. 119 Pascal... false Dampier-Whetham. 119 357 Loren.. 119 Holmes. 119 Newton.. and then the hypothesis is true and certain.... Lewis Would you tell me..it is the first duty of a hypothesis to be intelligible.. Sir Isaac We are to admit no more causes of natural things than such as are both true and sufficient to explain their appearances..it is incumbent upon us...hypothetical questions get hypothetical answers. Blaise For sometimes an obvious absurdity follows from its negation.

. 123 Shakespeare. as we know.358 STATISTICALLY S P E A K " Tertullian The fact is certain because it is impossible. 122 Borel. 124 indecision Bierce...any kind of accurate foresight is impossible.. as nothing is impossible-. are impossible in t i most hs impossible of all impossible worlds.. with impossibility at one end. 125 infinity Box. The only way to find the limits of the possible is by going beyond them into the impossible. 60 inference Plonk.there's an infinite number of monkeys outside who want to talk to us about this script for Hamlet they've worked out. 123 Goldwyn.. 123 impossible Adams.. William Well. 125 Sheynin. sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast .. Lewis Why.. Ambrose The chief element of success. A likely impossibility is always preferable to an unconvincing possibility.. 96 Playfair.. 122 Clarke. Oscar Man can believe the impossible. G.E.. or at least we must act. Lots of people bring you false information.a thermometer of probability. 158 Borges.. Wlim ila De Morgan. 125 information Berkeley. James All things.. In addition to those functions studied there are an infinity of others.so many things are possible just as long as you don't know they're impossible. 123 Huxley.. 123 Thurber. Harry And of what possible use is that information?. 55 Harrison.... 122 Carroll. Douglas It is impossible to import things into an infinite area. 123 Juster. Samuel I'll tell you in two words-im-possible. 123 . Augustus . Aldous Except under controlled conditions. O.... I'll have her and if it be a match. Jorge Luis The ignorant suppose that infinite number of drawings require an infinite amount of time...... 124 Wilde. Douglas . Arthur C.as if they were impossible.. Norton . Emile Events with a sufficiently small probability never occur. Phineas A mysterious process allowing us to reach a conclusion that is desired. 62 infinite Adams.. Edmund C.B....P.

S. The first mathematical discussion of the Latin Square known to modern statisticians was given by Euler in 1882. 214 law Bloch. Knowledge must come but the law of averages... Skinner.the Law of Averages had Barry.neither the interviewer nor the instrument should act in any way upon the situation. 130 Krass..nothing into the body of federal else than the raw material jurisprudence . 62 interviewer Deutscher.SUBJECT BY AUTHOR INDEX Information that is imperfectly acquired. 59 of averages... Whitehead.... 219 Law means a rule ... 127 TEACH them the JACKKNIFE.. negative results.. 131 -J- . 141 Coates.. F. John Allen . ..the law of measure and knowledge numbers rules in the Fischer. Charles E.. I.. almost certainly it is not We give them an excellent precisely accurate... Robert B. B.. 133 survey of the methods and law of averages techniques of thinking... 127 through action. -K.. 126 Boulle.has served as the Mauldin.. changeful hosts of the stars . 270 innumerancy Paulos.. Frederick never been incorporated Common knowledge is. Thomas H.. We have . 126 Rhodes. law..... Pierre Sophocles It’s not a question of training.. Bill basic substance of its vastly I feel like a fugitive from th’ law elaborated synthesis. Alfred North 126 If the law states a precise result.. 266 359 -L- labeling Eliot. Huxley.. 132 with partial knowledge .an inability to deal comfortably with the fundamental notions of numbers . is generally as imperfectly retained . Nay. Maurice G... John W.to content ourselves tenet .. common ..... 130-31 of his knowledge ... When any principle.. Arthur jackknife Negative expectations yield Tukey.. George The mere fact of naming an object tends to give definiteness to our conception of it. Robert M.. 3 Latin Square Kendall. Jevons.F.. W.. 128 whi&...the scientist must recognize as it does in man’s thinking the statistical aspect of much brain. knowledge..

Don Whatever hits the fan will not be evenly distributed..360 STATISTICALLY SPEAKlNG Kaplan. . 129 law of errors Edgeworth.history will take the discovery of laws as its problem. Leo P. 128 Kadanoff...... 129 Gibbon... 129 Froude.. but only in phenomena regulated by laws.... 127 laws of mathematics Einstein. D. Francis Ysidro The Greeks. 129 law of frequency of error Galton. 131 law of deviations Galton. 132 Unknown We must discover the laws on which our profession rests. Albert As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality. James Anthony ..is but the familiar truth. Max [in quantum mechanics] we have the paradoxical situation that observable events obey laws of chance.. 131 Tolstoy.all the richness of structure observed in the natural world is not a consequence of the complexity of physical law .. Alfred North Laws are statements of observed facts. Leo . Abraham .. 127 Bom. 131 laws De Jouvenel.... Francis I know of scarcely anything so apt to impress the imagination as the wonderful form of cosmic order expressed by the "Law of Frequency of Error"..if they had known of the law of errors. 129-30 law of large numbers Bemard... ... John Stuart The Law of Causation....we have reason for believing that there are in the constitution of things fixed laws according to which events happen . 133 laws of chance Bohm. 130 . and not invent them. they are not certain.. Edward law of causation Mill. 129 laws of probability Freeman. Austin It was totally opposed to the laws of probability.. Richard ..laws serve to explain events and theories to explain laws.... Claude But physicians have nothing to do with what is called the law of large numbers. 130 Price... R. 127 law of probable disposal Osbom.ignorance of the laws of probability. 133 Whitehead. Bertrand I believe neither in chance nor in miracle...... Francis They are determined by the assured law of deviations from the average...the laws of chance are just as necessary as the causal laws themselves.. would have personified and deified it.

Michael C.banking on the Law of Probability to reduce the likelihood of another rock coming in..... 134 Jefferys. so fallacious in particular. Bertrand A. Harold I have no objection to the study of likelihood as such......258 likelihood Crichton.SUBJECT BY AUTHOR INDEX The laws of probability. 361 so shabby an appearance of likelihood..to meet one nymphomaniac in a lifetime.. Jr. 37 .. 135 Wright... 131 laws..and some disgust might have been felt for a real author who made comDarativelv A .. Agnes The law of probability gives to natural and human science. Alex One has to be extraordinarily lucky.could be based on scientific laws. Charles There was always some ground of probability and likelihood mingled with his absurd behavior. scientific Deming. Stephen M. 128 Russell.the unity of life we seek.elementary statistics texts tell us that the method of least squares was first discovered about 1805.. 135 Queneau.. 73 lucky Comfort.. Michael The likelihood of its occurring by chance is astronomically small.. 135 Thomsett. Scientific laws.. 134 Eliot. 134 Dickens. George .. 135 Martin. 202 logistic equation May.. Raymond There was not much likelihood now that a third encounter would take place. there is a reasonable likelihood that response will fall within our range of expectations. 130 Meyer. J m i The likelihood of a thing happening is inversely proportional to its desirability. I would therefore urge that people be introduced to [the logistic equation] early in their mathematical education. 134 De Vries.. Robert M.. Thomas L. so true in general. William Edwards It would be splendid if all action. Based on the specific assumptions applied to our test. ... 135 list Gilbert I've got a little list. A professor's enthusiasm for teaching introductory courses varies inversely with the likelihood of his having to do it. 132 least squares... Peter Mopworth always took a seat at a window already cracked. method of Stigler..are different in form from the common-sense rules which have exceptions.

Geoffrey Dewey. William [Lord Kelvin] Measurement demands some one-one relations... Blaise .. 136 Chaucer... William It is important to realize that it It is no mean happiness is not the one measurement. Joseph Wood Read. 139 measured The Bible Who hath measured the waters in the hollow of his hand ... Thompson. Charles ... 13 know something about it .. Measurement.. even Shakespeare. 138 Measure for Measure.the mean is proper pride .. scientific method and measurement... 139 Unknown If you don’t measure it. “How many the miraculous... I’m not element of error in it. H. 6 Horace here is a meun in things . 136 measurement.. 137 Kaplan... 138 Krutch. as we so often conceive it nowadays. 137 Wordsworth.. John In eveV*ing. William I’ve measured it from side to side.... Abraham Lichtenberg. 138 times?”... William erroneous conclusions.. 138 Russell. 10 Pascal.a mean between nothing and everything. 137 Peter. Abraham Fox... Lawrence J... 137 conceptualized it.362 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING -M- map Kelly-Bootle.T..always has an If you can’t measure it. 137 Kaplan. 14 rest of the sequence that is measure of interest.y ou Spearman.. Russell .... Georg . as an ideal of Reynolds. not..on how we have information. William Edwards Shakespeare..when you can measure what you are speaking about .. 138 . but as measure.. but its relation to the mean...I would say that whether we Measurement has meaning can measure something only if we can transmit the depends .. Crude measurement usually 138 yields misleading. Herbert We are committed to the Beauty had not been born. 139 measurement Deming.. Stan The imponderable correspondence between two sets......... 1 WOO^! the‘ l ~ t h Insistence upon numerical mesure. humanity.... 137 interested. therefore.he looked me straight in the We are ourselves the measure of eye and asked.. to be seated in the alone. Bertrand A. 62 mean Aristotle .... 138 . it won’t happen...

. 9 method of least squares De Leeuw. if these measures give any ground of confidence. 79 Manners.SUBJECT BY AUTHOR INDEX This further and crucial method is that of measurement.. William ... 280-1 MTBF Kelly-Bootle. Thomas That’s the Monte Carlo Fallacy.. 77 Huxley. it’s a beaut”. ”Hell that’s why they make erasers”.. Samuel The purpose of models is not to fit the data but to sharpen the questions. 139 measurements unknown What the measurement will not do. Manfred A model has a third possibility: it may be right... 213 Monte Carlo Theorem Perec. D.. 208 middle American Jacobs. 140 models Greedman. Stan . The method used by the scientist to find probable exact truth is what he calls “the method of least squares”.. Stan A method of jazzing up the action in certain statistical and number-analytic environments. 11 middle road unknown Always choose the middle road . is to get you out of the crisis you are already in.. 80 model Eigen. 139 measures Asimov.. Abraham The words ”model” and ”mode” have. Clarence If someone made a mistake he would drawl.... See average mistake Darrow..the celebrated Monte Carlo Theorem was generalisable.. James Anthony There is no medium at sea.they mainly make models. Georges . Models are often used to decide issues in situations marked by uncertainty.A.”When I make a mistake. A.. 140 Kaplan.. Thomas H. we t i k that thy design is not hn amiss. but irrelevant. 254 Monte Carlo method Kelly-Bootle. 140 Unknown The sciences do not try to expl&. 141 Monte Carlo Fallacy Pynchon.. and certain future of the Middle American. Isaac . 136 Sophocles Nay. There is no greater mistake than the hasty conclusion that opinions are worthless 363 because they are badly argued. Joseph Such is the past career.we must remember that measures were made for man and not man for measures. 140 Karlin.. present condition.L.the same root . 139 medium Froude.

Dr. 144 Macy. John E.F.. You will see something new. 73 normal law Kac...unobservant of the facts are too ready to dogmatize . happens justly.J. 'tis there... 72 -0observation Aurelius. W.. R.. 188 MTTR Kelly-Bootle. G.the link between observation and formulation is one of the most difficult and crucial in the scientific enterprise.there must be something mysterious about the normal law . 146 Schumacher. Marcus Consider that everything which happens.. Alfred North 'lis here. Ettore's Ettore.C.364 STATISTICALLY S P E A K " The bearing of this observation lays in the application on it. The important thing to know is when one is on the more solid ground of observation and when one is on the ice. 142 Aristotle ....... E. thou wilt find it to be so. 63 normal approximation Lippmann. 142 Bemard. 145 Proverb.. 147 Whitehead.. W. No observations are absolutely trustworthy. Charles . Normality is a myth.. Well I don't know how many I saw but one looks mimsey. 147 observation. 75 normality Geary. Jonathan That was excellently observ'd .those.. 72 normal law of error Youden.leads to a stultifying sense of boredom and complacency on the part of the user... German No answer is also an answer. 143 Greer.. 188 -Nnonparametric Walsh.. F...J.. 142 Dickens. Barbara The Other Line moves faster.. Scott . 146-7 Seuss.M.. A precise and universally acceptable definition of the term 'nonparametric' is not presently available. Claude Observation. Arthur I drink a little more when the wind's off shore.... is what shows facts. 144 observations Anscombe.. Everybody believes in the [normal approximation]. 147 Swift.... and if thou observest carefully. Mark . The normal law of error. Stan poor or inferior in grade or quality + to take off . 145 ONeil. 'TIS gone. then.

William A fool sees not the same tree The observed of all observers.. the research scientist to ...E. Spanish we make.SUBJECT BY AUTHOR INDEX 365 on the basis of a few You see.. G.P...we are creatures that look The odds are still about five to before and after. 144 watching...... 40 Carlyle. but you do not observe. but thou some may get their ideas by observest not. Ben .. Thomas Harrison... 143 .. 146 Of what you see.... should be. Thus there is no reason why The Bible I should not admit that Seeing many things. William . 143 one against hitting the right Einstein. J. Yogi changes in the system being You can observe a lot by just observed... Charles Shakespeare. M. . Alexander .. William Shakespeare... that a wise man sees. 143 147 Box..he hath strange places Heisenberg.... 145 s... W. Sherlock application of methods of Never trust impression . 143 observers Blake..the implications of the I do love to note and to observe. Albert combination.S.T.. Karl R. Henri Pope. Jonson...he is a good observer.. 144 Operational research is the Holmes. odds To find out what happens to a Froude...I have many curious things to ability to describe your show when you are there.. Harry ..... Harold Howitt. 145 observing or by repeating observer observations.. 144 145 Longair..the interaction between observations. observations.. 143 particular way. 146 To observations which ourselves Proverb. 40 A man should look for what is..... 146 Popper.. Mary You must acquire the .. 147 observer and object causes observe uncontrollable and large Berra.. observations are far from 145 clear. operational research and not for what he thinks Davies.. cram”d with ... 146 Darwin.. 145 Poincare. believe very little. James Anthony system when you interfere The odds are forty-nine to with it you have to interfere one against my taking a with it. observations.. 142 144 Fabing..to observe is not enough.

148 Pope.... John Allen . 152 Haldeman. There’s a 50 percent chance of anything .. Celia The fact that something is far fetched is no reason why it should not be true.R... Arthur Ninety per cent of everything is crap. Benjamin In almost every true series of observations.. which differ so much from the others as to indicate some abnormal source of error . Darrell But I mix them 50-50.J. moming o December 7 1941... Fred I don’t see the logic of rejecting data just because they seem incredible. 129 outlier Anscombe.. 150 Unknown The folly of rejecting an extreme observation was -Ppercent Bames. 152 .... 151 Davies.. 150 Peirce. Bob The order is rapidly fading . some are found. one rabbit.. 208 demonstrated.there was a 50 percent chance of rain for Saturday. Don Variables won’t.. 150 order De Moivre.... Alexander Order is heaven‘s first law.we can say that between 80 and 90 percent of all the scientists that have ever lived are alive now.. James Hopwood We can only say that there is a 20 percent probability of its being bom in London.. Robertson ...... 152 Jeans.. 59 Green.. 149 Osbom’s Law Osbom. 148 Dylan.. Michael R. One horse.. 151 De Solla Price.. 151 Crichton. 152 Huff.76 percent of adults have bad breath.366 STATISTICALLY SPEAKlNG various rather complex practical operations... An observation with an abnormally large residual will be referred to as an outlier.. 151 Bloch.. 151 We are telling you with ninety-five percent confidence intervals how the people feel. Michael They were about plus or minus two minutes for ninety-nine percent. He would say there was a 60 percent chance of a Soviet strike on China. Derek John . H. Sir Arthur Stanley The order will never come back... 152 Parry. Abraham Those Irregularities will bear no proportion to the recurrency of that Order which naturally results from ORIGINAL DESIGN.. F. 152 Paulos.on the f . Thomas When the weather predicts 30 percent chance of rain. 148 Eddington. 150 Hoyle. constants aren’t.

62 posterior probability Durand. 156 Samuelson.. Paul A...for accepting the explanation.. 160 Borel..a kind of randomization.all is to them a dull round of probabilities and possibilities.. 173 probabilities Austen.to bring us to the heaven of probability.. Thomas She’s almost got it.... Abraham .. 154 unknown Lord.. 156 Unknown To predict is one thing.. 153 Twain.. Hans A posit is a statement which we treat as true.. Ian Cutting up fowl to predict is. 176 probabilists Lindley... 160 Bostwick. we are never absolutely sure that experiment will not contradict it. please find me a one-armed statistician. The physical sciences are used to ”praying over” their data. 153 Poisson unknown Socrates took Poisson. Emile Probabilities must be regarded as analogous to the measurement of physical magnitudes. Henri No matter how solidly founded a prediction may appear to us. 74 Poisson equation Pynchon. 74 polynomials Cochran and Cox .. 154-5 367 predict Hacking. It is easier to make true misleading statements in the . Jane Are no probabilities to be accepted.if we can predict successfully. William . 60 prayer Fiedler.I handle ’em with Poisson distributions. 154 Plato .. John W. Thank God for compensating errors. Wall Street indexes predicted nine out of the last five recessions......SUBJECT BY AUTHOR INDEX Sturgeon. merely because they are not certain?. 157 prediction Poincar6. 154 praying Tukey.. 75 Poisson distribution Unknown .. Dennis Are we probabilists.. 159 Blake. Theodore That would be a little like saying ‘102percent normal’.. Mark . 136 posit Reichenbach... Edgar R..I increased the population by 1 percent.... David A result arrived at by the application of an elegant mathematical formula...polynomials are notoriously untrustworthy when extrapolated..we have good reason.. 156 Kaplan. To predict correctly is another.. Arthur E....

. 173 Lewis.. 164 Deming...... 161 Cardozo. 162 Crichton. 167 Froude. The most we can know is in terms of probability. Francis Ysidro I hope that you flourish in Probabilities.. 166 Fear is almost always haunted by terrible dramatic scenes. Benjamin N. Lytton E... 161 Chesterson.. 169 Hooker. 161 Bulwer. Thomas Perhaps an editor might begin a reformation in some way as this.D.. 169 Huxley. Richard As for probabilities. 168 Wisdom does not trust to probabilities. Fate laughs at probabilities.. 167 Freeman.ignorance gives one a large range of probabilities...... Robert subject of probabilities than anywhere else. 163 Darwin.. Charles . 167 Forbes. P...the art of weighing probabilities is not yet even partly explained.368 STATlSTlCA LLY SPEAKING to an event which has occurred. Probabilities have no absolute signhcance with reference . 171 Leibniz. George .the logic of probabilities.empirical knowledge is exclusively a knowledge of probabilities.. 170 James. Richard P...as the art of evaluating as exactly as possible the probabilities of things . 167 Gracian.. Gottfried Wilhelm . 167 Freeman.. which recur in spite of the best-argued probabilities against them.D.. 171 Jefferson... 173 Ludlum.. R. No priest or soothsayer that ever lived could hold his own against Old Probabilities... Thomas L. .W. Bertrand We defined the art of conjecture. Austin It is a question of probabilities.... 168 Holmes.. 164 Edgeworth..G. The balance of probabilities is in favor of that view. James Anthony Philosophy goes no further than probabilities... 163 De Jouvenel.. Clarence Irving . Balthasar . O..... Michael We must guess at every single one of these probabilities.. J.mature meditation on the possibilities and probabilities of future events. 179 Eliot.every man must judge for himself between conflicting vague probabilities.... William Edwards The statistician’s report to management should not talk about Probabilities.. None of these nasty mathematical probabilities we’re so fond of... Aldous Magic and devils offend our sense of probabilities.. Gilbert Keith Speaking within modern probabilities. 166 Feynman..

..SUBIECT BY AUTHOR INDEX It was a desperate strategy. 174 Pearl... Dexter . based on probabilities. 179 Voltaire Almost all human life depends on probabilities...it may be doubtful if there is a single extensive treatise on probabilities in existence which does not contain solutions absolutely indefensible. Charles Sanders . 174 Masters. 178 Sartre... Judea Probabilities are summaries of knowledge . Italian A thousand probabilities does not make one fact. 175 Plato .. Friedrich It is better to be satisfied with probabilities than to demand impossibilities and starve.. Charles I feign probabilities... Henri The very name of calculus of probabilities is a paradox.....these arguments from probabilities are impostors. 180 probabilities.... Robert S. Antoine To judge what one must do to obtain a good or avoid . 180 Von Clausewitz. Douglas Probability factor one to one. 158 Aristotle A Probability is a thing that usually happens. 158 Arbuthnot. 180 He who has heard the thing told by twelve thousand eye-witnesses. the experimentalist.. 178 Schiller. 176 Proverb. The theory of probabilities and the theory of errors now constitute a formidable body of knowledge . 159 Amould. probabilities. Jean-Paul When we want something... theory of Woodward... calculus of Arago The calculus of probabilities. 182 probabilitiz Billings.. Josh The probabilitiz that the abuv probabilitz will assimilate themselfs tew the principal probabilitiz in the case.. good luck and bad that weaves its way throughout the length and breadth of the tapestry. 159 Poincar6..... has only twelve thousand probabilities...there is an interplay of possibilities.the mathematician. and the statesman.. 178 Reade. 175 Peirce. we always have to reckon with probabilities. John I believe the Calculation of the Quantity of Probability might be improved to a very useful and pleasant Speculation. 160 probability Adams..the only procedure consistent with man’s development was to follow where the probabilities led. 176 probabilities..ought to interest.. Karl 369 .

Joseph ... B. Walter Life is a school of probability. 162 Crichton.D.PROBABILITY DOES NOT EXIST. Barrington Luck was not probability. not genius... 160 Bayley. George Probability is expectation founded upon partial knowledge.the intellectual basis of all empirical knowledge may be said to be a matter of probability.. F. 162 Considine. 162-3 Dampier-Whetham.with scruples of probability. The more ridiculous a belief system. but also the probability that it happens or does not happen .370 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING direct proportion to the embarrassment it will cause....as an evil...H. Probability tells us what we ought to believe. Russell Probability and Birds in the Yard.... it is necessary to consider not only the good and the evil in itself.. Michael It’s a probability equation...the probability of an error being made will be in ...H. 160 Boole.. Fanny .. John . David An erudite measure of ignorance.. R.. 164-5 Durand. Wayne R..probability is the very guide to life.... 159 Atkins. Michel Eyquem ... 165 One difficulty in employing strength of belief as a measure of probability is that an expectation of belief has partly a subjective bias.. 161 Bradley.. Ronald H..to incline and be swayed by probability. 161 Bumey. 161 Butler. 159 Bartz. James . . 160 Boswell.. Sir Arthur Stanley In most modem theories of physics probability seems to have replaced aether as “the nominative of the verb ’to undulate’ ”. William C. 164 Deifield. 161 Coats. 60 Eddington. 163 De Finetti. 164 Deming...smear of probability. The probability of a young man meeting a desirable receptive young female.. 165 Edgeworth. 165 There can be no unique probability attached to any event..I can judge with great probability how he will act in any case. .... William Edwards Mathematical probability. Francis Ysidro Probability may be described.. Bob . 159 Bagehot..every probability evaluation is a probability evaluation.. 163-4 De Montaigne. the higher the probability of its success.. 162 Cohen.. .

.. 166 Ellis. David If the probability of success is almost one. Probability is truth in some degree.... 167 Probability is a mathematical discipline with aims akin to those.169 Howe.the probability is that half a dozen people will at last begin to shout that you 371 have been monstrously neglected. Richard W.. 166 Feller.. 169 Harris.W.. 171 Kyburg.a degree of probability which very often is scarcely less than complete proof.. George But I see no probability of my being able to be with you before your other Midsummer visitors arrive.. 168 Gumperson. . Nick probability = (possibility)*...... 169 Hamming. closely analogous to similarity. 170 Huygens. William . 170 Kac. so far as measurement is concemed.of geometry or analytical mechanics. Mark To the author the main chain of probability theory lies in the enormous variability of its applications. Keep probability in view.. 169 The outcome of a given desired probability will be inverse to the degree of desirability. William Al possible “definitions” of l probability fall short of the actual practice. Probability is too important to be left to the experts..the contradictory of a welcome probab ility.F. Jr. But if probability measures the importance of our state of ignorance it must change its value whenever we add new knowledge.. 168 Gilbert.E. 168 Gissing.. H.. 172 Laplace. 169 Herbert. Pierre-Simon . .. 172 Probability is. R.. 167 Gay..they must be made to quit the sort of learning that comes only from books. E. 171 Keynes. Errole E. and that rests only on vain arguments from probability and upon conjecture. George . David Al knowledge resolves itself l into probability.. then it is damn near zero.. John Maynard It is difficult to find an intelligible account of the meaning of ‘probability’. Thomton C. John Let men suspect your tale untrue. Christiaan .there is no problem about probability. 166 Fry. 169 Hume. 166 Still there is a possibility-even a probability-the other way.SUBJECT BY AUTHOR INDEX importing partial incomplete belief. 166 Eliot. A reasonable probability is the only certainty.

173 Lincoln. 172 The most important questions of life are. E......... 178 . 174 Probability is the appearance of agreement upon fallible proofs. Wayne C. 177 I can’t pretend to understand probability math.only problems of probability.. Clarence Irving A ”poor evaluation’’ of the probability of anything may reflect ignorance of relevant data which ”ought” to be known . 177 Probability math predicts the future... 173 Lewis. Hitherto the user has been accustomed to fccept the function of propability theory laid down by the mathematicians...S.. Malcolm The probability is.. .by the mathemagic of probability.. 174 The mind ought to examine all grounds of probability.... T. it was a reality.. 176 Pratchett.. We may not be able to get certainty.. 177 You haven’t heard of probability math?. 173 Locke. I suppose that the Monarchy has become a kind of ersatz religion. but we can get probability.. 174 Minnick. Abraham The probability that we may fall in the struggle ought not to deter us . Can you work any equations of probability of one hitting here?.. 172 Probability has reference partly to our ignorance... 175 Peirce.... 175 Muggeridge.in which good writers frequently get results entirely erroneous.... 177 Prior.. 174 Ludlum.. Robert It wasn’t a probability anymore.. 175 Pohl. Charles Sanders The idea of probability essentially belongs to a kind of inference which is repeated indefinitely. Frederik .372 STATlSTlCALLY S P E A K ” Even scientific truth is a matter of probability. 174 MacDonald... John Probability is likeness to be true.. and you can no longer please the world .. Blaise Take away probability. . 175 Pearson. C. 175 Pascal... Matthew In this case probability must atone for want of Truth.....I project a nine-nines probability. 173 There is no such thing as the probability of four aces in one hand . 177 We now understand probab ility..S..... John D. 172 Lewis..a science that began by considering games of chance should itself be raised to the rank of the most important subject of human knowledge. 176 This branch of mathematics is the only one..

... there are also laws goveming chance..a considerable probability of being occupied by octopus... 181 Walker. 181 Whitehead. 180 Tollotson.. and probability diminishes. 182 Only a certain probability remains of a one-to-one association of any spatial feature now with a similar feature a moment later..or supematural forces after all.the laws of probability..if one talks of the probability that the two poems ... Richard . James A pinch of probability is worth a pound of perhaps..the probability relation between the proposition in question and the things I know for certain. 181 Whyte. 181 Wilde.... 179 probability. 170 Shewhart. 189 probability.... 179 Thurber. W..... in all probability... 180 Von Mises.... John Maynard .. students of Russell... 178 Shaw.... George Bemard And nobody can get.. Oscar No ignoble consideration of probability. 180 Voltaire .skepticism increases.. 182 probability.trusts in the mathematics of probability.a barometer of probability. 171 probability. Alfred North There is no probability as to the future within the doctrine of Positivism. Roy A.we can take it that we are not held within un-. laws of Hunter.. 46 Stoppard....SUBJECT BY AUTHOR INDEX Ramsey... 182 Wilde.. mathematics of Redfield... There is a sDecia1 deDartment . John .. that is. have the same author. Bertrand A. Thomton He drew up charts analyzing the elements of probability. Marshall .if a man uses one of the end urinals his probability of being pissed on is reduced by 50 percent.engineering with and without statistics boils down to.moral certainty be sometimes taken for a high degree of probability.. Frank Plumpton . 180 Unknown ..... sub. Lancelot Law 373 If the universe is a mingling of probability clouds. Robert James . Jacques We must for the most part be content with probability...in much the same way that there are laws goveming our society. Evan ..... barometer of Keynes. and these are called the laws of probab ility.. 181 Waller..A...the high probability of the improbable. The long time winner is the man who. 178 Rohault. Tom ..far without at least an acquaintance with the mathematics of probability.

.. 184 Hammond. 167 Kolmogorov. 185 Sartre. The dictionary tells me that 'probable' means 'likely'. 184 Poincark.....W. theory of Crofton.it is always probable that something improbable will happen... Karl R. and very E probable.... Karl R... Jean-Paul All views are only probable. 183 . 185 Popper. Henri Predicted facts. The theory of probability.. Henry Which is of probables the most. 183 De Leeuw. M.. is not the ultimate answer to the question of induction. . 172 Popper. or occurrences. ... 176-7 Von Mises. William ' spretty sure. Clarence Irving . whereas predictions are merely probable. The mathematical theory of probability is a science which aims at reducing to calculation.while they persist they are never more than probable... but undoubtedly false. 184 Moroney. Edward Such fact is probable. The most important application of the theory of probability is to what we may call 'chance-like' or random events.. 184 Lewis.. Andrei N..without the experiment. Hans To say that observations of the past are certain...many sensations are probable. 181 probable Barry.... Logan E... 178 probability.. 185 Reichenbach. 186 'Ti probable and palpable to thinking.the amount of credence due to propositions or statements..374 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING Gibbon. Thomton C.all empirical knowledge is probable only..we ought to accept the tale which is probable and enquire no further.. Blaise But is it probable that probability gives assurance?. Richard The theory of probability can never lead to a definite statement concerning a single event... . 163 Fry.L. The laws of chance tell us what is probable. 183 Bleckley. A..can be axiomated in exactly the same sense as Geometry and Algebra. Frederick . 183 Cicero .can only be probable.. 185 Shakespeare..there would be no reason for a theory of probability. M.... 185 of hell for students of probability.. 184 Pascal. 184 Plato .....J.we are never justified in saying that we know that they are 'true' or 'more or less certain' or even 'probable'.

John In all the ordinary affairs of life men are used to guide their actions by this rule.. 266 problem ....youtre either part of the Hurry up and wait.. namely to incline to that which is most probable. 187 queue Cleaver....did Fisher...... Abraham Naffali Most problems have either A questionnaire is not just a list many answers or no answer. I do not know . Robert Man is seen to be an enigma only as an individual... 266-7 Berkeley.which. Oppenheim. 187 is sometimes wasted Chesterson... 189 186 questionnaire problem Deming. 186 It may be probable she lost it. 187 prophesy The Bible For we know in part. Eldridge Old Army Saying .. 267 problem.SUBJECT BY AUTHOR INDEX How probable. in mass. of questions. Frank M. Poul A questionnaire is never I have yet to see any perfect. 186 unknown It is probable that many things will happen contrary to probability. mathematical Chambers... not become still more Nature .. 186 probables Toffler... he is a mathematical problem. George -Q- .267 187 questionnaires Bloch. John K... William Edwards Anderson... 185 Which to you shall seem probable .. Alvin The management of changes is the effort to convert certain possibles into probables.will best respond to a complicated. logical and carefully thought 187 out questionnaire. Inside every large problem is a The time of busy people small problem struggling to get out. Sir Ronald A. and we prophesy in part. 185 Most probable. 189 quality control Steadman... 186 Wilkins.... 375 problem. Edmund C..... 190 solution or part of the queueing problem. 187 Mikes.. Gilbert Keith by time-consuming It is that they can’t see the questionnaires.. 179 quality Unknown You can’t inspect quality into a product.... . Arthur Norton.are in the same position as the man who bets on a horse race. Without quality control you .

.376 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING There is one habit which is clearly of British origin-that of queueing.. to recurse divine.B. 193 Bierce. Robert A.. Paul Reason is the shepherd trying to corral life’s vast flock of wild irrationalities. 192 random normal deviate Durand.. 193 Minnick.. William His reasons are as two grains of wheat hid in two bushels of chaff . 194 Romanoff. Sir Isaac My design in this book is. 191 randomness Brown. This kind of reasoning has weakness.. we must necessarily reason about what we have observed. Claude To leam....principle of insufficient reasons.. 61 random numbers Heinlein.000 Normal Deviates. How easy it is for unverified assumption to creep into our reasoning unnoticed!.. Edward .. 191 Sophocles ’Tis best to live at random . 191 reason Bemard.. 60 Eldridge....to reason from what you see.. Like all Holmes’ reasoning the thing seemed simplicity itself when it was once explained. David A contradiction in terms .nothing is so alien to the human mind as the idea of randomness. 195 Cohen. Reasoning goes beyond the analysis of facts.. Wayne C.. 196 .. Ambrose To weigh probabilities in the scales of desire.. 195 recurse Unknown To iterate is human. Spencer The concept of randomness arises partly from games of chance. 191 unknown Random is not haphazard. 193 Holmes.. 192 The RAND Corporation A Million Random Digits with 100. John .. 194 You fail. Sherlock . 191 Peers. 190 -Rrandom C r o l Lewis arl. 194 Shakespeare.to propose and prove by reason and experiments. Dr..the grand thing is to be able to reason backward. That kitten doesn’t have a brain.I. Alexis L.. 193 Newton. W... Couldn’t put Humpty Dumpty in his place again.. he just has a skull full of random numbers... 195 reasons Kasner. 194 reasoning Beveridge.. John Random stomping seldom catches bugs. 194 Watson.

199 The way to do research is to attack the facts at the point of greatest astonishment.. The term “regression” is not a particularly happy one.. multiple unknown . Wilson . there was a sensible straight line who was hopelessly in love with a dot..SUBJECT BY AUTHOR INDEX recursion Papert.I couldn’t understand multiple regression in college. Albert D. 61 regression. 196 regression Cardozo. George It seemed to me that the fairest thing would be to shake them together.. 201 Cochran. 199 Misner.. and take out one by chance. Philip H. multiple Fiedler. 198 regression fallacy Durand. A person’s opinion of an institution.. 201 Gissing. . Benjamin N.. Arthur After painstaking and careful analysis of a sample. 197 Regression begins with the unknown and ends with the unknowable. Stan See recursive..is often determined by one or two encounters. 34 -Ssample Bloch. hn Most economists t i k of God as working great multiple regressions in the sky. 199 residuals Herschel. 197 You’ve got to draw the line somewhere. G.. Edgar R.. 197 Juster.. stick my hand in.. 197 regressions. recursion stands out as the one idea that is particularly able to evoke an excited response.. 197 Yule.. He emphasized that one in a million is a very remote risk.... William G..if you steal from many.. John Almost all the greatest discoveries in astronomy have resulted from the consideration of RESIDUAL PHENOMENA.. 202 McNemar. Norton Once upon a time.. it’s research. Seymour Of all ideas I have introduced to children. 200 risks Abelson. 197 Unknown Like father. Celia Research is a way of taking calculated risks. like son. 199 Lasker. Quinn . 196 recursive Kelly-Bootle. David The naive belief that regression analysis is a cure all.. 197 377 research Green. Research is something that tells you a jackass has two ears. Where the line is to be drawn the important and the trivial cannot be settled by a formula..

204 Popper. Stan A sexual activity formerly considered perverted . 203 Whitehead. 132 sequential analysis Durand.. one supremely important law which is only statistical. old soothsayer.378 STATISTICALLY SPEAKlNG sampling units Deming. 157 standard deviation Kelly-Bootle.... David A systematic procedure for generating second guesses.. William G.. 247 Ludlum. scavenger of Magendie.and empirical science. Sir Walter Hold your peace.. 204 second law of thermodynamics Russell.. i.. Karl R. Morris James Everyone who has poured a highball into the nearest potted plant after taking one sip has had some experience in sampling. Science does not a m primarily.our actions are based to a very large extent on samples.. however... 202 Sampling is only one component... almost always.. William Edwards A good sample-design is lost if it is not carried out according to plans. There is.. exact science...weighting a sample appropriately. William Edwards We must know also the procedure by which to draw the sampling units. 202 sampling unit Deming.. 202 sample-design Deming. Darrell A well wrapped statistic is better than Hitler’s ”big lie”.there exists a great deal of confusion in the minds of investigators as to the necessity of obtaining a truly representative sample. at high probabilities.. 201 samples Cochran..... 201 Slonim.. 205 science.. 201 .. 61 science Harris.. Errole E... Franqois I am a mere street scavenger of science.there are two main types of science. Alfred North The things directly observed are. F. only samples... 85 scatterbrain Durand. Our knowledge.... Bertrand A. 61 soothsayer Scott... . Robert .. David A Bayesian whose beliefs have been randomized.... 201 unknown Everybody’s taken samples. William Edwards Sampling is the science and art of controlling and measuring.. . 202 Mosteller. 61-2 statistic Huff. William Edwards If the cost of classlfyrng a sampling unit were zero.of that broad based field of scientific method known as statistics. 203 sampling Deming.

SUBJECT BY AUTHOR INDEX 379 Death is a statistic for the . 260 . 207 . John Boyle on him... false statistical estimate Bowley.all statistical devices are open of statistical analysis.my various and laborious statistical statistical conclusions. 218 statistical cherub statistical expectations Pynchon. Arthur L. 211 Robinson.. black cat of definitive t u h Lippmann. statistical clock 258 Dickens...the hovering statistical cherub computers....... difficulty with a smooth 216 stone..... Arthur L. 251 who’s never quite been to Puzo.. 254 statistical consultant in a statistical analysis research organization is to . Some of the common ways A statistical estimate may be of producing a false good or bad . statistical balance of the 216 foetus.. Churchill side of criminology is very The primary function of a imperfectly developed . Harry 210 And when..without destroying the hypothesis of immortality?. Hopkins. Bowley... properly Sometimes a David felled a conducted.... 216 . Greenwood...are to abuse.a million deaths is a statistic. Lewis Newton statistical consultant In this country the statistical Eisenhart.. 207 statistical argument are to statistical evidence quote figures without their Paulos. Laurence to conclusively reject the . 211 statistical argument... Stalin.. I am a statistic. M.does this mean there isn’t statistical balance enough statistical evidence Steme.... Mario hell. 212 statistical difficulty Moroney. A statistical analysis. is a delicate Goliath of a statistical dissection of uncertainties. Josef statistical Christ. Charles Ti’ilmon... Thomas Segal.. you just statistical conclusions don’t count. except as a Galton.J.... Erich .. John Allen context.. 249 developed ... in pursuit of the statistical devices rt.. 254 In the name of a cautious. 217 He always did that whenever statistical Christ somebody pulled a statistic O’Reilly... Francis statistic.. Johnnie . M.the deadly statistical clock. Walter more refined techniques ... 260 209 If you’re all those things..

115 Excellence in statistical graphics consists of complex ideas communicated with clarity.. 210 Lippmann. 263 statistical inference..statistical graphics.S. The statistical method is social mathematics par excellence.. E. Edward R. Albert By applying the statistical method we cannot foretell the behavior of an individual in a crowd.. 209 statistical method Bell.. August .are only as good as what goes into them... Walter The statistical method is of use only to those who have found it out. .we have no theory of statistical graphics.a mastery of the modern statistical method is essential. Thomas Why am I surrounded by statistical illiterates?. ten commandments of Driscoll.. 217 statistical improbability Dawkins... 208 statistical inference Wang. Karl There is much value in the idea of the ultimate laws being statistical laws. Clarence Irving Let us call these last "statistical generalizations" since they are exhibited at their best when supported by statistical procedures. The Ten Commandments of Statistical Inference. 218 statistical generalizations Lewis.the whole notion of "Statistical inference" often is more of a plague and less of a blessing to research workers.. 210 Tufte. Richard The essence of life is statistical improbability on a colossal scale.... 115 statistical illiterates Pynchon. .. 215 Pearson. Statistical laws enable the insurance company to function. 214 statistical graphics Fienberg.is a mystery to the public. The stormy holiday roads had yielded more than the statistical expectation of traffic accidents. Raymond F.. 206 To grasp and analyze mass-reactions.. Stephen E. William has Statistical knowledge.. Chamont . 208 Einstein.. 216 statistical magic Devons. Michael F.. 217 statistical laws Jones... not till within these last 50 years become a regular object of study. William Edwards The statistical method is more than an array of techniques. 209 statistical judgment Meitzen. Eric T. precision...380 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING No statistical judgment deals with the unit .. and efficiency. 215 statistical knowledge Playfair. Ely Statistical magic.. 206 Deming. 213 Pearson.

206 Bloch. Richard The problems of statistical physics are of the greatest in our time. 243 statistical reasoning Ho~kins. statistical mumbo jumbo Habera.... 210 statistical prediction Lewis.the statistical prediction of the future from the past cannot be generally valid .it is a function of statistical method to emphasize that precise conclusions cannot be drawn from inadequate data. R.. 212 Meyers. 219 statistical point of view Edwards....... 212 statistical physics Von Mises..SUBIECT BY AUTHOR INDEX 381 ...we fall back upon statistical 'mumbo jumbo' to confuse and demoralize our opponents. Sir Ronald A. 206 Cox.. 217 Stamp. Josiah You cannot escape the statistical method ... S.A.. Audrey . 213 statistical problem Meitzen. Arthur If enough data is collected.. Statistical methods serve as land mark.R. A knowledge of statistical methods is not only essential for those who present statistical arguments it is also needed by those on the receiving end. A.. D. G.. Robert A.G. It would have been exceedingly boring if they both talked of nothing but expectancy tables and statistical probabilities. 218 statistical methods Allen.. Statistical methods of analysis are intended to aid the interpretation of data... 215 s. 208 Glantz.. 211 Hoel.. Statistical procedure and experimental design are only two different aspects of the same whole . Approximately half the articles published in medical joumals that use statistical methods use them incorrectly...D.his subject is so robust from a statistical point of view .. 2 1 4 5 statistical probabilities Jones.W.J. Harrv .the sanctity of the statistical norm.G. Statistical methods are essentially methods for dealing with data that have been obtained by repetitive operations... 211 statistical outcome Heinlein. P. it must proceed according to a plan. Celia .it did not change the statistical outcome. August No matter what the statistical problem may be.....F. 212 statistical norm Green.. 215 statistical procedure Fisher. Clarence Irving . . Raymond F. . Jr. anything may be proved by statistical methods..

213 statistical thinking Wells... 213 statistical theory Hotelling. Francis The object of statistical science is to discover methods of condensing information concerning large groups of allied facts. Sir Ronald A. Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write.. 211 Kaplan.. William . MD We are far from having "one statistical world".... 243 statistically significant result Hogben.. Mane The use of available statistical records requires first that the investigator be familiar with the better known sources of such data. James H... and diligence. 213 statistical research Deming. 207 statistically Gallup..382 STATISTICALLY SPEAKlNG This rather tumultuous overflow of statistical techniques from the quiet backwaters of theoretical methodology.. H... .B..the real masters of the statistical situation.. 208 statistical science Galton.... Statistical tables are essentially specific in their meaning. 212 Huff.. 207 statistical situation Lippmann.the statistical sea that supports our thoughts and actions.statistical techniques are tools of thought. 250 statistical tables Bailey.. 212 Confidence in the omnicompetence of statistical reasoning grows by what it feeds on. 207 statistical world Boudreau. Lancelot Acceptability of a statistically sigruficant result of an experiment. William Edwards Statistical research is particularly necessary in the govemment service.. 204 statistical sea Kruskal. fidelity.. Jacob Since statistical sigmfmnce is so earnestly sought and devoutly wished for by behavioral scientists. George I could prove God Statistically. Walter ......G.. 212 statistical records Jahoda. 214 statistical significance Cohen. In statistical work we should be able to presume upon honesty.. Abraham ... 206 statistical techniques Fisher.. Frank G. Darrell The purely random sample is the only kind that can be examined with entire confidence by means of statistical the0ry... Harold Research in statistical theory and techniques is necessarily mathematical.. W. 220 statistical work Blodgett..

...... They are unthinkable..a term that is more or less equivalent to that of “Statesman”. Evan A figure head.distinguishes. 25 Good... 224 Finney. Sir Ronald A.B. 223 383 Esar. 225 Forster. 222 Chemoff.... An Israeli statistician named Hare. 221 Belloc. 223 It should be emphasized that the statistician is not necessarily abler at handling data. 224 A specialist who assembles figures and then leads them astray..lifework of the statistician..SUBJECT BY AUTHOR INDEX statistician Bailey.. 224 A matter of fact specialist.. W. the Statistician. 222 Coole..M. Saul Daisy was a statistician for the Gallup Poll. 223 The only useful function of a statistician is to make predictions. The individual statistician must scan closely the authority on which he rests... W.....P. Hilaire The statistician was let loose. and the philosopher do different .. 2 ... 225 Galton..... 224 Fleiss.... 221 Blodgett.. 222 Deming.. 223 The statistician accepts in any engagement certain responsibilities. 224 The statistician cannot excuse himself from the duty of getting his head clear on the principles of scientific inference.... William Edwards A statistician’s responsibility is not confined to plans. H.the work of the untrained social investigator from that of the experienced scientific statistician. 221 Bellow..the statistician is regarded as someone who comes on stage after data have been collected... 225 There was a statistician from Meedham.. We are not concemed with the very poor... 223 The minute a statistician steps into the position of the executive...J.J... 223 A man who believes figures don’t lie. E. . Failure to observe this fundamental principle in statistical practice... .. I. Joseph L. Years ago a statistician might have claimed that statistics deals with the processing of data. 224 Fisher.... and only to be appreciated by the statistician.the statistician ceases to be a statistician. The statistician cannot evade the responsibility for understanding the process he applies or recommends... D. James H. The mathematician.. Francis . 224 There was a statistician from Knossus.

. hire a statistician. Eugene P. precise line from an management again casts unwarranted assumption to a doubtful eye at the a foregone conclusion. 232 Most of you would as soon The movement of the last be told that you are hundred years is all in favor cross-eyed.as the job of finding the island. Stamp.. Josiah the statistician. Raymond F... for a never would have declared statistician.F.. 230 are exposed occurs in Too often the client. 232 destined to be a statistician. William The experimental statistician An occupational hazard to dare not shrink from the which we statisticians war cry of the analyst. Wiper. M.. 226 independence... marooned on a remote .. 232 distinguishes the Wang. Michael C. Tukey.384 STATISTICALLY S P E A K " things with a theory of So it is with the statistician. insufficient data to foregone 227 conclusions. a statistician is and what a The characteristic which statistician is not. . 230 The statistician's job is to draw Unknown general conclusions from A statistician and the fragmentary data. statistician) ~~ .. 228 Wells..looks to the the context of a social statistician as a man who occasion.that scavenger of adventurers.as that you are of the statistician... G.. 232 measurement of the fallibility of conclusions.. 229 Thomsett.G.the characterization of a responsibility of a statistician as a man who statistician to make draws straight lines from decisions for other people. 228 One of them became a The Editors (of The American statistician.. is his response is likely to be "It is interest and skill in the a biased coin".. probability.. G... they You are a blunt man... It is not primarily the . 229 Kerridge.. 232-3 .. D.. 227 statistician's wife were Seaton. 227 applies the final stamp of Moroney. John W. the statistician... H.L. approv al. 230 Kruskal. 228 It is difficult to determine what Snedecor. 226 If they'd had the budget to Jones... 231 statistician. Chamont present-day professional If you ask a statistician.. 231 truth and explaining it A statistician is a person who continues to become more draws a mathematically complex and more difficult.W..J..

Maurice G. 229 Thurber.in all society where statisticians thrive. Finer. 227 Stamp. 233 statistician..... 228 385 Stigler. 219-20 statistics Adams...U.F. Since the statistician can seldom or never make experiments for himself .the extinction of the human race should be merely a fact to be grouped with other vital statistics.. and people who didn't. 229 Tukey. F. Henry . Harry . 231 What statisticians have in their briefcases is terdying.. Josiah I sometimes t i k that hn statisticians do not deserve quite all the hard things that are said about them. 230 If all the statisticians in the world were laid end to end-it would be a good thing. Stephen M.. people who knew about statistics. 222 Hopkins.SUBJECT BY AUTHOR INDEX Yule.statisticians are not infallible.. 230 Unknown . Statisticians have an understandable penchant for viewing the whole of the history of science as revolving around measurement and statistical reasoning. .. there will be 4 minority reports.J.. Nigel He divided people into statisticians. 226 Miksch. mathematical Deming. The most important maximum.. 226 Kendall.. Perhaps statisticians themselves have not always fully recognized the limitations of their work.which many statisticians seem to have shunned. G.. 230 It's mighty hard to fool these statisticians.. The early statisticians of the present century were competent at mathematics.. Arthur L...there is that Other. 221 Bowley. 262 Yates... A couple of govemment statisticians recently threw dust on the wedding ring business . Rational World to which the better statisticians have already been called. W.. liberty and individuality are likely to be emasculated. M. 234 . 231 If there are three statisticians on a committee.. John W... James Though statisticians in our time have never kept the score... William Edwards You need not be a mathematical statistician to do good statistical work.. 208 statisticians Balchin. the appalling position can easily arise in which one can get any answer one wants if only one goes around to a large enough number of statisticians. 227 Moroney.

. Charles So far I speak only of impersonal statistics. they are given a great role in medicine.. 236 Bowley. Lord So that I do not grossly err in facts. Jacob M. he plunged deep into statistics.. R. the term has no meaning unless the source.. 238 Carroll. 239 Cogswell. Arthur L... 238 Statistics.. Jacob . . Elizabeth Barrett We talk by aggregates.. statistics are a form of wish fulfillment. Statistics....for he was weak in statistics. 236 .. one may hope. relevance.S.and you thought "impressive" statistics were 36-24-36.. 235 Statistics are the triumph of the quantitative method .statistics. 238 Bumman. 239 Coats.. 238 Carlyle. 235 Bemard.... Theodore...statistics has long been handmaid to these exact sciences...... 237 Bowman. ...... 236 Boorstin. Scotty Statistics are for losers..... 235 Baudrillard..the typical behavioral scientist approaches applied History has never regarded itself as a science of statistics.statistics deals with estimates.. 236 Booth.. Roger Statistics are the food of love... 234 Advertisement . Nigel Probably knows no statistics whatever.. 235 Bartlett. 238 Byron. Daniel J. politics... Jean Like dreams. 235 Balchin. The fundamental gospel of statistics is to push back the domain of ignorance. Lewis . 234 Taking for granted that the alternative to art was arithmetic. 234 Angell... Thomas Statistics is a science which ought to be honourable. Claude As for statistics. .... Hilaire .. Statistics show that you have nothing to worry about.. 235 Belloc.statistics come under the heading of lying.386 STATlSTlCALLY SPEAKlNG A knowledge of statistics is like a knowledge of foreign languages...H. Robert W.... 235 Before the curse of statistics fell upon mankind we lived a happy... It is concemed with things we can count. R... and truth are all checked out.statistics have tended to make facts into norms.statistics. Tom . and think by systems and being used to face our evils in statistics. She was reading birth and death statistics... M... 237 Burgess.. will improve gradually ..... 237 .. 237 Browning.. 237 Braude. innocent life... tactics. 239 Cohen..displacers of moral imperatives .

. ’Statistics’ was the science of Statecraft...statistics are frequently referred to as ‘the hard facts’. 241 .to draw different conclusions...intellectual gulfs have grown up between writers in statistics.. 240 ... Derek John Hs passion was to count i everything and reduce it to statistics. Francis Ysidro .. Benjamin There are lies. however uncertain.. Moreau Statistics are like the hieroglyphics of ancient Egypt.. and church statistics. 61 Edgeworth.. 241 Dewey. 242 Farr.... Wlim Edwards ila . Joseph S. 209 ...... 242 Durand...I cannot oscillate a time series. 239 Crichton. William Statistics should be the dryest of all reading. Statistics are proverbially dry...and some of the functions which magic and divination play in primitive society.the portrayal of some statistics that seem to point to policy in one direction rather than another?. 241 And statistics. 240 The two most important characteristics of the language of statistics are. In the original sense of the word. 242 Disraeli..’statistics are only for the statistician’. 243 . David A form of lying .SUBJECT BY AUTHOR INDEX statistics with considerable uncerta inty. 241 . 239 De Jonnes. 242 Esar....... 240 Deming. Evan Data of a numerical kind looking for an argument.. Sir Ronald A. 243 Fisher.. 240 This exaggerated influence of statistics.. 241 387 The experience of falling in love could be adequately described in terms of statistics... and make charts.induces everyone to try to impress their case on public attention by peppering it with statistics.... John Factual science may collect statistics...there seems to be striking similarities between the role of economic statistics. 242 The science of producing unreliable facts from reliable figures.. can apparently provide some basis.. 241 .. 242 Fiction in its most uninteresting form...Statistics reigns and revels in the very heart of Physics. 240 De Solla Price. 240 Devons.. Really boring. damned lies. Ely .. Michael Conversation and statistics.. 242 The only science that enables different experts.. 239 Davis... 242 The science that can prove everything except the usefulness of statistics..

243 Gann... Leslie . 0.388 STATlSTlCALLY SPEAKING Statistics has been likened to a telescope. bits of foolery. is a good deal more often than the average wife enjoys. Emest K. F. Lyndon B.bits of jokes. 262 Johnson. Arthur Legal proceedings are like statistics..245 Heinlein.. Robert A. We are all victims of statistics. 246 Hogben.. 245 Hayford. Lancelot The word statistics has at least six different meaning in current use .. 245 Hancock..the man of the future is the man of statistics.. bits of statistics. which if I have my statistics right.. 244 Hailey... Scott I'm going in for statistics. Palmer 0. the lowest grade of information that exists.... 251 Habera. O. 244 Goodman... 246 Holmes.W. 246 I think statistics are just as lovely as they can be.. Robert Do remember that your experiment is merely a hodgepodge of statistics.... . Richard Most of us have some idea of what the word statistics means...a calculating age has stabbed it to the heart with innumerable dagger-thrusts of statistics..... 247 Johnson. .. Francis . 244 Some people hate the very name of statistics.. In 1906 he started on statistics.. 247 Don't waste time arguing.. 246 Hopkins. 244 Gissing. D. .. Jr... F.statistics. 246 Hooke. . Well statistics prove that you're far safer in a modem plane than in a bathtub. 243 Freeman.. George . complicated statistical methods rarely are necessary. Mr. Linton C... William Keith .. Audrey Statistics is 'hocuspocus' with numbers... 243 Galton. bom to consume resources. 245 In the everyday use of statistics in business. 245 Henry..those who are not accustomed to original inquiry entertain a hatred and a horror of statistics.. 244 Gregory. Fitzgerald. 244 Statistics is the refuge of the uninformed.statistics must not be sedatives. I do very much enjoy a more than occasional roll in the hay. Harry You can't argue with statistics..neither statistics nor the statistician can ordinarily give the executive the final answer to his problems.. 247 Horace We are just statistics.J..if you can gather some statistics. 245 Hand.

.. Stephen I’ve been reading some very interesting statistics.he’s saved the lives of hundreds with those statistics. David You cannot feed the hungry on statistics... Learn something about statistics as soon as you can. Andrew He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts . Andrew H... you look for the common factor.. 249 What is there about the word “statistics” that so often provokes strained silence?......SUBJECT BY AUTHOR INDEX There was a time when statistics. Fiorello Statistics are like alienists...... Raymond F. Walter Even the most refined statistics are nothing but abstractions.. S .. Robert . 250 Ludlum.. Franklin P... William . 248 Kruskal. 249 Lippmann.. John .. statistics.... in ascending order. is lies.... Stan The basic sequence.. I’m afraid. 248 Kelly-Bootle...the last 20 years of this century promise to be that of statistics. 251 Neter. 250 These are manageable statistics.have to make the brick.statistics refers to the methodology for the . Fletcher . Statistics can be used to support anything. 114 Marshall. 250 I work with statistics.. you do not have any understanding of statistics. 249 Leacock.. A. 248 Koshland......J.. 250 Lloyd George.. 251 Moroney. 247 Jones.. 248 Knebel.. M. In statistics. Statistics is the branch of scientific method which deals with the data obtained by counting or measuring the properties of populations of natural phenomena. 249 389 Lapin.no nation ranks higher in its collective passion for statistics... Daniel E. 249 Statistics is the art of stating in precise terms that which one does not know. 251 Malcolm.. 249 Lang. 248 That was why statistics had to be invented .smoking is one of the leading causes of statistics.. Maurice G. Dr. 247 Jones.was almost completely ignored by the experimenter .. 251 Statistics is no more than State Arithmetic. 248 Kendall. 250 Lock.... 250 Statistics then is no automatic device for measuring facts. 248 LaGuardia. Jr. ...each of us has been doing statistics all his life. Lawrence Statistics is a body of methods and theory applied to numerical evidence.. Noitall.. . Statistics are the straw out of which I.

. 252 Pearson.. 258 Stekel. Louis People are skeptical of statistics. Ludwig History is statistics in a state of progression. 253 Reynolds..... 254 Rogers. ”Statistics” as a plural means to us simply numbers . sir?”... and analysis of data .. 252 Neuman... 254 Russell...T. ..statistics reveals more and more the inconstance and the irregularity of much social phenomena . James R. .390 STATISTICALLY SPEAKlNG to some kind of statistics. 252 Nizer... 253 Porter.. about individuals. Statistics was founded by John Graunt of London.a religion they call Statistics.. 253 Puckett. 256 How’s yer statistics?.J. 253 Playfair. 257 Smith. 216 Perrin. Theodore M..statistics. 256 My husband’s a professor at M.. . William For no study is less alluring or more dry and tedious than statistics. Spanish Statistics.. Jean ...I. Mark Alan I propose that infinitely refutable statistics be declared the official language of politics. 256 Shapiro.. 255 Schlozer. Karl Her statistics were more than a study. 255 Salsburg.. presentation.cannot make bad variables into good ones.. 252 The fabulous statistics continued to pour out of the telescreen.. 258 collection.. Erich ”Would you like to ask me some statistics. Wilhelm Statistics is the art of lying by means of figures.. yet another mistress to deceive us.. unrewarded millions without whom Statistics would be a bankrupt science. Ben Look behind statistics!.the art of dealing with vagueness. 253 Statistics derives from a German term.. 255 Segal.. 252 Orwell... 254 The govemment keeps statistics on every known thing.... 257 Smith. L. H. 253 Proverb.. 257 Stamaty. 217.. Statistik .. Andrew Statistics don’t lie. Lawyers like words and dislike statistics. Will Everything is figured out down to a Gnat’s tooth according ...are accurate laws not about large groups. George Statistics were just as much a fantasy in their original version as in their rectified version.. Bertrand Statistics.. Logan Pearsall For I am one of the unpraised. Karl We ask for no statistics of the killed.. 257 Solomon.T. 255 Savage.. Reginald H.. David S.

statistics are always false... Anton . Derek Statistics justdy. The collection. Mark Statistics show that we lose more fools on this day .. 239 He had been devoting more time and attention to statistics (her statistics). Anthony .of making inferences from the particular to the general....but.the silent protest of statistics.... 63 Von Mises....... 259 Thackery. 258 Strunsky.. Edmund H. they are probably wrong. Michael C... 262 Statistics may be compared to a mill. 262 The beginning of modem statistics is also the beginning of modem calamity..... 260 Twain.. The statistics mongers ... Simeon Statistics are the heart of democracy. statistics is “quartered pies”.SUBJECT BY AUTHOR INDEX Stout. 260 We have no statistics to tell us whether .. damned lies. and interpretation of numerical data .statistics. 262 Volkhart. only when one is confronted with known facts and statistics.... 263 Walcott...men do not die early from overwork. 258 Tchekhov.asked one veteran executive how accurate the president’s statistics were... 263 . 260 Tukey. 259 Thomsett... 261 Statistics must be based upon something... 261 There are three kinds of lies: lies.can be quoted by the devil. 261 unknown 391 .... Laurens Thinking has its place. 259 Let’s blame it on statistics. 259 Trollope... 264 Statistics is the science which uses easy words for hard ideas. Statistics is the science.and statistics. 231-2 If the statistics show a trend or change. 259 The Editors (of The American Statistician) To some people. Rex Statistics show that seventy-four percent of wives open letters with or without a teakettle.... 262 The pretensions advanced for statistics... 262 Statistics can provide a ready proof ..common lies. 261 Medical statistics are like a bikini.. analysis... 258 There are two kinds of statistics.. and cannot be one. 264 Van der Post... Richard There are three kinds of lies: white lies.. John W... 264 .. William M.. 261 What I like to read about are facts and statistics of any kind... 261 Statistics has been called a science.statistics is not a science. and statistics. A new manager .

that it is never possible to be sure that one is operating with figures of equal weight.392 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING statistics... 262 statistics course Thomsett. mathematical Walker. Ronald J. Alfred North There is a curious misconception that somehow the mathematical mysteries of Statistics help Positivism to evade its proper limitation to the observed past. 263 Wang.statistics compiled unscientifically. 263 statistics. 265 statistics class unknown If I had only one day left to live. here you are a professor of statistics. .. Indian Stamp.. E.the methods of statistics are so variable. 242 statistics. William Butler More women bom than men. Two managers were taking a course in basic statistics.are almost sure to be misleading.. 254 Statistics. 265 Yeats... Chamont Statistics as a science is to quanhfy uncertainty.. 256 statistics. Durbin-Whatzit Unknown . The science of statistics is the chief instrumentality through which the progress Walker..statistics is not a spectator sport..when you are a bit older.... professor of Segal. American Journal of Segal.. 256 statistics. Josiah .. . The political practice of citing only agreeable statistics can never settle economic arguments. Michael C. Havelock . you will not quote Indian statistics with that assurance. 265 Wonnacott. 263 Waugh. Erich He tumed over on his side and picked up the American Journal of Statistics.. I would live it in my statistics class.. Daniel J. science of Boorstin.B.. Marshall Statistics provides a quantitative example of the scientific process. 264 Wilson. Marshall Mathematical statistics provides an exceptionally clear example of the relationship between mathematics and the extemal world.. agreeable Ramsey. ... 263 White. James B.... 58 statistics. methods of Ellis..conclusions obtained from even the best data by one acquainted with the principles of statistics must be of doubtful value... Erich I mean. Evelyn 0 god statistics go to prove that comparatively few ever attain that age.used to test unknown assumptions. not unknown. 272 .. 264 Whitehead. 262 statistics. Ailliam F.

Darrell Misinforming people by use of statistical material. Ludwig The science of statistics.... 61 statists Proverb As the statists thinks. Sir Ronald A..we’re not sure. 267 surveys Strong..has the great honor of having proved the existence of definite rules in a number of phenomena. we can’t be sure. Albert . 266 Heinlein. 237 statisticulation Huff. 236 Buchner.. Edward .. It is hard to understand why he failed to appreciate the pedagogical value of designing an experiment... however. Stan A mathematician’s shindig. 267 symmetry Kasner.nothing that is worth knowing can be taught. Lydia So.... 272 teach Blake..... 272 teaching Acton... Edwin G..... R.. 266 The only excuse for taking a survey is to enable a rational decision to be made. But what is the purpose of your survey?..of multiple range tests. Hilaire Oh! let us never doubt What nobody is sure about!.... are joumals that publish tables giving the results...... 218 summation convention Kelly-Bootle.of making a mistake. 270 taught Wilde.S..J.. why bother with surveys of your own market?. 271 Moroney.. Thomas Tables are like cobwebs.in a particular way in tables. 30 survey Deming.. 30 Camus.... 269 Peirce. F. the said results receiving no mention in the text... Oscar ... M.how strong is ”strong enough’’ is going to be a function of the importance... 253 strongenough Rudner. Charles Sanders Worst of all. 271 Olds. Statistics is not the easiest subject to teach. the bell clinks!. Robert A. William Edwards A perfect survey is a myth. The terms used in the headings and margins of the tables are all employed in a technical sense.. 268 -Ttables Carlyle.... Ely The way statistics are presented . 269 Devons..the fact of the penny’s symmetry is a mere detail.. 269 Fisher.SUBJECT BY Al JTHOR INDEX 393 of civilization is now measured . William To teach doubt and Experiment. . 61 sure Belloc.. .

Edmund C. 281 theorems of statistics Wolfowitz. What famous theorem does this illustrate?. 279 Moger... 272 test Fisher. 276 Colton... Art. F. About binomial theorem. do not rush.more important than all the battles of history. Rejection rules are not sigruficance tests.J. L.S. Charles Caleb Professors in every branch of the sciences prefer their own theories to truth.and this was the history of the central limit theorem...in agreement with any suggested hypothesis. 207 tests Anscombe. W.. Jean-Pierre You know our Theorems are Guaranteed. . Gilbert Keith A man warmly concemed with any large theories.... 278 theorem. Jerome Seymour The teaching of probabilistic reasoning. Teaching data analysis is not easy.394 STATlSTlCALLY SPEAKING And I believe that the Binomial Theorem and a Bach Fugue are. 273 Lydgate.. 280 Unknown If you have to prove a theorem. 282 The Treadmill Theorem.. Sir Ronald A.most of the theorems of statistics would not survive in mathematics if the subject of statistics itself were to die out. binomial Gilbert. 279-80 theorems Petit. 271 Bruner.. John W. the situation is not unlike the moment when one’s daughter inquires where babies come from.. John Comparisons do ofttime great grievance.is hardly developed in our educational system before college. 282 Why bother to make it elegant if it already works. . William G.. J.. 277 When an engineer apologetically approaches a statistician. 273 test of significance Cochran.. 282 theorem. 282 The Dirty Data Theorem. The world is more complicated than most of our theories make it out to be.. 283 theories Berkeley. 271 Tukey.. There is no more pressing need in connection with the examination of experimental results than to test whether a given body of data is. 275 Chesterson. A useful property of a test of sigruficance is that it exerts a sobering influence on the type of experimenter who jumps to conclusions on scanty data.. central limit LeCam.... James ..and asks how he should fit a straight line to these points. 273 theorem Hilton.

Claude A theory is merely a scientific idea controlled by experiment.. 276 Butler.. 276 Chan. Karl R. 276 Clarke......... 282 theorising Voltaire Let us work without theorising. For that theory is solely concemed with working out the properties of the theoretical models .. 278 Hamilton.T. 275 Buckland..a theory arises from a leap of the imagination. Frank 395 Your theory is most excellent. Aleksander Isaakovich A first rate theory predicts . 275 Bloch.. Jimmy But Pop... Leonard0 The supreme misfortune is when theory outstrips performance..T.... 277 Eddington. I’ve got a theory.. 281 Sayers... . 279 One forms provisional theories. 277 Colton. 279 Kitaigordski. 278 Eliot. 279 . 277 Da Vinci...SUBJECT BY AUTHOR INDEX Darwin... 282 theory Bellow.. Saul Do you remember that old piece of business from probability the0ry. Sir Arthur Stanley We have devised profound theories... Charlie Theory like mist on eyeglasses. I’d be glad to settle without the the0ry.I only wish to point out that there are other theories possible. unless it can explain its own phenomena . 278 Holmes.. 276 Champemowne.. 276 Chan. 278 Hubble. 279 Popper... Edith Theories that go counter to the facts of human nature are foredoomed. 277 Einstein. Sherlock . Dorothy L. Edwin No theory is sacred.. Albert A theory can be proved by experiment.. J... Theories are generalizations and unifications. 276 Your theory is crazy-but not crazy enough to be true. Arthur C.. 282 Davies.G. Charles .. Very dangerous things.. 277 Davies. Samuel It is not nice to be wedded to anything-not even to a theory... theories. For the scientist is most interested in theories with a high content. Paul Rowe’s Rule. Arthur Skinner’s Constant. George The possession of an original the0ry. J. D...for without the making of theories I am convinced there would be no observation. 277 Dickson. 275 Bernard.. Charles Caleb Theory is worth little.

John ...must be treated as though they were true gospel.. Charles Sanders The theory of probabilities is simply the science of logic quantitatively treated. 280 Romanoff. 281 theory of probability Bell. 85 thinking statistically Thom.. Raymond J.. . probability Borel. Raymond F. Anthony There are certain statements which. Eric T. Alexis L. Distribute dissatisfaction uniformly.. 126 things Green. 284 truth Eliot.. A.. Emile One grain of wheat does not constitute a pile. 275 Reichenbach.. George Approximate truth is the only truth attainable.396 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING Nizer. the result is a tragedy.. Emile Incomplete knowledge must be considered as perfectly normal in probability the0ry.. 284 Jones. 260 threshold number Borel.... 282 Unknown Any theory can be made to fit the facts. yet he was thinking statistically. Edgar Allen Coincidences. 218 true gospel Trollope... A theory offers us a better view. 281 Seeger. Celia There are some things that are sure to go wrong as soon as they stop going right. Louis .are great stumbling blocks in the way of that class of thinkers who have been educated to know nothing of the theory of probabilities. Hans The study of inductive inference belongs to the theory of probability. 284 Twyman's Law Unknown .any figure that looks interesting or different is usually wrong.. The real beginning of the theory of probability goes back to 1654. 73 . 280 Oman. 136 tools Thoreau.. 278 Theory without facts is bullshit.. 133 -Uuniformly Lidberg.when a theory collides with a fact. 280 Poe... Henry David But lo! men have become the tools of their tools.the old habit of making theory the measure of reality. A theory is worthless without good supporting data.in the statistical world you can multiply ignorance by a constant and get truth.... 281 theory.A...... 282 theory of probabilities Peirce. John Now not so much as a glimmer of any number entered the shortstop's head in this time..

SUBJECT BY AUTHOR INDEX 397 -Vvariability Fieller..an important characteristic of populations that individuals cannot have.G.. Thomas H.... Michael The computer informed her that three spaces accounted for eighty-one percent of variance.one who attempts to study precisely things that are changing must have a great deal to do with measures of change.... 286 Keats. Karl The starting point of Darwin’s theory of evolution is precisely the existence of those differences between individual members of a race...C.. William Variety’s the spice of life.. 54 The incalculable number of petty accidents that concur to produce variability among brothers .. Charles .. 285 Cooley.. 287 Leibniz.. 288 vary Huxley. Before the inherent variability of the test animals was appreciated .. 287 variance Boring.there is not a single organ of the human body the structure of which does not vary. McDougall’s freedom was my variance..there are never in nature two beings which are exactly alike.there is truth in the theory that variability is much the same kind... 287-8 Wheeler. William Maston Since no two events are identical.. 285 Proverb Variety is the spice of life. David Nothing so like as eggs... 288 variable Galton. Francis Two variable organs are said to be co-related when . 286 Hume. Charles Many laws regulate variation .. ... John There is nothing stable in the world ....C.... Variation is.. 286 Tippett.. 285 Unknown Variance is what any two statisticians are at. E. 286 Galton. Francis .. Gottfried Wilhelm .... 287 Pearson.... 285 Crichton... E. 287 .. 288 variates Unknown All variates are limited in both directions. 288 variety Cowper. 288 variation Darwin.. L..

142 probability. F. 89 Alderson. ( . Antoine (1612-1694) common sense.AUTHOR BY SUBJECT INDEX -AAbbott. 89 impossibility.) probabilities. 19 Albinak. Poul (1926-?) problem. 122 mean.S. 158 Arago ( . Thomas (1225?-1274) causes. Matthew (1822-1888) facts. (1928-?) graphing. ( .) erroneous reading. Louisa May (1832-1888) fact. calculus of. 6 observations. 89 Aron. 71 facts. Roger (1920-?) statistics. 158 probability. Henry (1838-1918) facts.D. Raymond (1905-1983) 398 . 271 Adams. ( . 122 infinite.J.) accidental. 34/35 dice. 235 Anscombe.H. 206 Ambler. 67 distribution. 159 Amold. 19 chance. 76 Adams. 142 outlier. 89 statistics.C. 59 tests. 34 Arbuthnot. 159 Aristotle (384-322 B. M. 273 Aquinas. 158 Adams. 187 Angell. Douglas (1952-?) impossible. Franklin (1881-1960) err. 34 causes.) average.G. 6 Allen. Philip H. Mark (1721-1770) cause. 34 Anderson. 19 chance. ( . 234 Advertisement statistics. (1913-?) risk.) teaching. R. Eric (1909-?) chance. 113 Alcott. 89 Abelson. Edwin A. 76 observations.) analysis. Marvin J. F. 159 Amauld. 234 Akenside. 34 Acton. 2 statistical methods. John (1667-1735) probability. 50 probability. (1838-1926) facts.

common. 6 Bailey. Jean ( . 59 probable. Walter (1826-1877) probability. 204 Baez. 52 facts. Nigel (1908-1970) correlation. 2 chance. 106 Arthur.) data. 20 observation.) percent. law of.M.) statistical tables. W. Wayne R. 221 statistics. 206 theory of probability. 18 statistics. Sir J. 159 Bailey. 7 .) probability. 235 Bayley. 221 Balchin. 235 Barnes. Gertrude (1857-1948) average. 83 sciences. 55 information.( . Fred (1899-1987) chance. 35 correlation.) Bayesians. Vissarion Grigorievich (1811-1848) facts. (193&?) probability. 235 sure. 90 Barry. (1809-1895) causes. Joan (1941-?) hypothetical. 183 Bartlett.S. 6 average intelligence. 151 Barrie. M. Marcus (121-180) cause and effect. 221 theory. 159 Aurelius. Isaac (1920-1992) measures. Edmund C.) statistics. 117 Bagehot. Frederick (1876-1943) analysis. 89. Thomas D. 50 statistician. 90 facts.B. ( . Herbert (1852-1928) hypothesis. Barrington J. 275 Belloc. 35 statistical method. 6 cause. T. 275 Bennett. Jane (1775-1817) probabilities. 20 certainties. 55 problem. Henri (1859-1941) cause.S. Russell ( . 160 Baudrillard. (1860-1937) facts. 142 Austen. 30 Bellow. ( . 187 theories. 20 Atkins. 30 experiment. Michael R ( . 117 Astaire. 52 foreknowledge. 90 hypothesis. 20 Asimov. ( . 117 knowledge.AUTHOR BY SUBJECT INDEX chances. Saul (1915-?) statistician. Francis (1561-1626) causes. ( . 136 Asquith. 206 statistician. 20 Berkeley. Frederick (1876-1943) fact.) average ability.) probability. 90 statisticians. 159 399 -BBacon. 235 Bartz. Arnold (1867-1931) common sense. 90 Bell. 35 Atherton. 50 Bergson. 275 Bemard. 160 Belinski. Hilaire (1870-1953) common sense. Claude (1813-1878) averages. 221 statistics.

400 STATIS TICALLY SPEAKING averages. chemical.125 niiy observe. Arthur E. (1917-?) laws of chance. 207 statistician.H. probability. 236 Borel. 160 Blake. (1827-1907) probable. 193 statistics. Pierre (1912-?) law of averages. 237 Bowman. 161 Braude. conception of. 67 die. 76 impossible. 187 sample. E. 143 Beveridge. Yogi (1925-?) observe.. problem of. Arthur L. 236 theory. 222 Bogart. 183 Bloch. Logan E.B. 35 error. 143 Bradley. 236 Booth. 35 Bohm. 51 Bierce. 59 indecision.I.G. 201 statistical methods. 193 Bialac. (1896-?) statistics. 127 observation. Jacob M. 275 Berra. (1846-1924) probability. laws of. false. Mm (1882-1970) chance. (1919-?) i f n t . F. first. 222 statistics. 207 statistical estimate. D. Frank G. Humphrey (1899-1957) chance. 7 fakt. Jorge Luis (1899-1986) infinite. 90 law of large numbers. Richard N.G. 125 Boring. (1914-?) statistics. 7 averages.) common sense. 136 Borges. Josh (1818-1885) average. Daniel J. 127 Bowley. 35 observe. 59 faith. 91 probabilitiz. Arthur (194&?) experiment. William (1757-1827) chance. (1860-1942) probabilities. (1908-?) reasoning. 206 theory.E. 237 .) statistical world. 91 facts.) statistical work. 60 reason. (1886-1968) variance. Scotty (1933-?) statistics. 127 percent. 275 Blodgett. 36 laws of chance. 20 fact. 83 law. 271 Bleckley. 127 Bostwick. ( . W. 160 theory. 207 Boulle. ( . 60 Billings. James H. MD ( . 207 statisticians. 143 probabilities. 161 Boudreau. 126 threshold number. Emile (1871-1956) chance. 151 problem. 122 probabilities. arithmetic. 7 statistical argument. 127 Boorstin. Ambrose (1842-1914?) dice. 237 BOX. 7 causes. 142 reason. James (1740-1795) probability. (1869-?) average.P. 285 BO^. 111 statistics. Charles (1840-1916) gambling. 161 Boswell. 160 teach.

36 facts. 83-4 facts. 8 statistics. Eustace (1686-1787) fact. 276 Chan. 143 statistics.G. 91 Bulwer. Thomas (1795-1881) facts. Spencer ( . 238 tables. 237 Buckland. Lewis (1832-1898) correlation. 276 Buddhist Maxim cause. 91 statistics. Alexis (1873-1944) average intelligence of scientists. Benjamin N. Robert (1773-1858) experiment. 77 Chaucer. 117 impossible. Sebastien Roch (1741-1 794) chance. science of. Lord (1788-1824) average. 8 Carroll.) errors. Frank ( . Jerome Seymour (1915-?) hypothesis. 2 certain. (1803-1873) probabilities.AUTHOR BY SUBJECT INDEX Brown. 36 error. D. 91 facts. 161 regression.) theory. Edwin ( . 276 Chappell. 2 probabilities.G.) theory. 77 experiment. 83 fact. 91 Bruner. Tom ( . Charlie theory. 92 hypothesis. H. 77 Cahier. 65 error. 238 401 -CCage. 195 Browning. Charles (1807-1882) experiment. 161 Butler. Robert W. 161 Bums. (1923-?) . 52 design of experiment. 271 Buchner. ( . 76 theory. 122 random. Joseph (1692-1752) probability. mathematical. (1870-1938) analysis.) randomness. 239 Chambers. 36 chances. 191 statistics. 92 observe. 238 Buman. 117 teaching. 36 Champemowne. 187 Chamfort. 276 Chan. 83 Camus. 238 Bumey. Jimmy theory. 161 Burgess. 91 Butler. Lytton. Elizabeth Barrett (1806-1861) statistics. John (1912-1992) error. Samuel (1612-1680) analytic. Fanny (1752-1840) probability.) statistics. 30 Cardozo. Albert (1913-1960) sure. 30 chance. 276 Byron. 136 Chemoff. 269 Carrel. Ludwig (1824-1899) chance. E. 237 Browning. 197 Carlyle. 20 Budgell. Geoffrey (1342-1400) measure. Robert (1759-1796) facts. Robert (1802-1871) problem. (1887-1969) statistics.

276. 239 Cohen. Bob (1906-1975) probability. Eldridge (1935-?) problem. 222 Cooley. concept of. 162 statistics. 156 Conrad. Gertrude M. Charles (1864-1929) variance. 92 Crichton. 128 Coats. 92 Considine. (1880-1947) average. Leon (1866-1938) impossibility. 37 Compte.) facts. Michael (1942-?) graph points. W.) statistician.) statistical methods.) experiment. 162 problem. 277 Comfort. Marion (1854-1909) facts. 113 graphic. 106 probable. 163 probability.P. 191 Cohen. 118 Cort. 207 Cogswell. 118 Cowper. 187 Coates. Gilbert Keith (1874-1936) chances. 201 samples. 123 Cicero (106-43 B. (1909-?) sample.R. Jerome (1935-?) facts. R. 162-3 statistics. ( . Francis Harry Compton (1916-?) statistician. Arthur C. Charles Caleb (1780?-1832) causes. 239 Cochran and Cox polynomials. Alex (1920-?) lucky. 208 Cox. 67 haruspex. 207 statistics. F. Robert M. 187 theories. law of averages. William (1731-1800) chance. ( . 92 impossible. 92 Cohen. 21 chance. 134 percent. 151 probabilities. 20. 21 chance. 118 . 239 Cohen. Robin (194&?) correlation. 162 randomness. 36-7 probabilities. 222 Chesterson. ( . 37 error. John ( . Theodore R. D. 84 Crawford. Auguste (1798-1857) foresight. Jacob (1923-?) statistical sigruficance. Nicolaus (1473-1543) hypotheses. David (1904-?) hypothesis. Joseph (1857-1924) facts. 37 error. 239 variance. 277 Cleaver. 276 Chestov. 37 dice. 201 test of significance. 277 theory. 52-3 Coole. (1897-1973) probability. 77 variety. 285 Crick.H. 113 likelihood. 123 theory. Morns R. William G.) causes. ( . 162 Cook. (1918-?) statistics.C. 285 Copernicus. 285 COX. 183 Clarke. 8 hypotheses. 77 theories. 136 Cochran.402 STATlSTlCAL LY SPEAKlNG Colton.) probability.

53 Crothers. 55. Michel Eyquem (1533-1592) probability. 128 probabilities. 151 Da Vinci. 37 Darrow.J.T. 266 Democritus (46&370 B. 21 error. Murphy’s Laws of. 84 observer. Moreau ( .) analysis. Joseph S.AUTHOR BY SUBJECT lNDEX chance. 85 statistical method. 208 probable.) chance. 93 403 -DDampier-Whetham.W.L. Robertson (1913-?) percent. 37 Crofton.C. ( . J. A. M.) statistics. Bertrand (1903-1987) forecasting. 163 theories. B. 38 chances. 30 hypothesis. G. 208 statistical research. Leonard0 (1452-1519) cause. (1916-?) correlational method. 118 probability. Augustus (1806-1871) impossibility. William (1867-1953) certainty. standard. mathematical. ( . 164 De Morgan. 223 statistician. 277 Davies. 201 sampling units. 3 De Cervantes. 164 De Leeuw. 208 Deakly. 60 data. 239 Dawkins. 38 enquiry. Charles (1809-1938) chance. 164-5 questionnaire. Ronald H. 201 sampling. 128 measurement. 286 Davies. 136 probabilities. Abraham (1667-1754) chance. false. William Edwards (1900-1995) chunk. Samuel McChord (1857-1927) facts. (1899-?) method of least squares. 266 sample-design. ( . 77 theory. doctrine of. ( . 125 .C. 208 statistician. 51 probability. 240 survey. 163 De Finetti. theory of. scientific. 143 probabilities. 164 probability. (1885-1975) statistics. Richard (1941-?) statistical improbability. 163 Cronbach. 163 Dante (1265-1321) hazard. 71 order. 163-4 Deifield.) probability. 183 Deming. 201 sampling unit. Miguel (1547-1616) probabilitv.) probability. 148 De Montaigne. 240 De Jouvenel. 208 statistics. L. Clarence (1857-1938) mistake. 77-8 laws. 77 Darwin. 277 variation. 208 theories. (1924-?) operational research. 56 error. 164 De Jonnes. 277 theory. 38 experiment. 282 Davis. 38 De Moivre. 106 laws.) common sense.

67 errors. 269 De Vries. 128 correlation. (1935-?) statistical point of view.) Ashley-Perry Statistical Axioms. Albert (1879-1955) common sense. 266 Devons. 165 theories. ten commandments of. 51 dice. 21 statistics. 143 statistical clock.) statistical inference. 60 commode. A. 56 Eigen. 240. 277 Disney. ( . Peter (1910-1993) likelihood. 242 Edwards.404 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING Durand. 39 dice. 60 degrees of freedom. Manfred (1927-?) model. 60 assignable cause. 241 tables. 60 regression fallacy. ( .C. 61 sequential analysis. 60 data. 22 chance. 278 Edgeworth. Sir Arthur Stanley (1882-1944) chance. (1907-1967) interviewer. 61 scatterbrain. secret. 93 order. 38 Disraeli. 68 facts. 210 Eddington. 60 best estimate. 78 -EE C ~Umberto (1932-?) . Francis Ysidro (1845-1926) error. 61 Dylan. 152 statistics. 64 expected value. 78 law of errors. Ely ( . Benedict (1632-1677) cause. 166 statistics. 210 Ehrenberg. 134 observation. Dorothy (1903-?) chance. 53 theory. 242 Dickens. John (1631-1700) cause.) statistical magic. 129 . 93 likelihood. 143 probable. Derek John (1922-1983) percent. 240 De Spinoza. Paul ( . 39 facts. 129 probability. Bob (1941-?) order. Michael F. chinaman’s. statistical. David (1950-?) assessed probability. Benjamin (1 804-1 881) causalities. RenC (1596-1650) observe. I. 140 Einstein. 39 laws of mathematics. 209 Dryden.W. 61 statistics. 209 statistics. 148 Descartes. 93 God. 137 statistics. 209 Dickson. 60 probability. John (1859-1952) measurement. 148 probability.S. Charles (1812-1870) average intellect. 21 Deutscher. 183 De Solla Price. 242 Driscoll. factor analysis. 60 posterior probability. 209.) data. 8 facts. A. 134 Dewey. 21 causes.F.

56 design of experiment. (1890-1962) correlation. Havelock (1859-1939) statistics. 154 regressions. Robert B. 118 405 -FFabing. 78 errors. 107 forecasters. William (1807-1883) statistics. Bergen (1904-1978) error. David (1933-?) probability. Barbara ( . 118 observations. 167 Fermi. 166 Ellis. Desiderius (1466-1536) error. William (1906-1970) probability. 273 Fitzgerald. statistician. E. 278 truth. F. 107 forecasting.) chance. Stephen E. 93. 94 labeling. 242 Emerson. Sir Ronald A. 94 hypothesis. 94 Enarson. 266-7 statistical procedure. 166. 94 Ellis.J. Paul (1888-1982) chance. 61 facts. 286 Fienberg. 166 probability. 193 Eliot. 210 Eldridge.C. 39 dice. Harold and Mar. (1943-?) forecast. method of. 210 theory. (1917-?) statistician. (1919-?) counted.) variability. 106 prayer. 68 experiment. 65 diagrams. Harold L. 242 Ettore. George (1819-1880) facts. 211 statistician.) . Enrico (1901-1954) chances. 126 Fisher. 197 Fieller. 94 reason. (1920-?) knowledge. Ettore’s.) observation. 3 likelihood. 68 experiment. 243 statistical techniques. 53 data. Churchill (1913-?) statistical consultant. 224 statistics. 243 Feller. 23 dice. 113 errors of the second kind. Ralph Waldo (1803-1882) cause and effect. Ebenezer (1781-1849) facts. 94 facts. 56 Erasmus. 22. D. theory of. 284 Eliott. 144 Euripides (484-406 B.AUTHOR BY SUBJECT INDEX observe. 78 E s ~ Evan ( . 278 Eisenhart. 144 statistical method. multiple. 39 Fiedler. 223. 243 . 210 Finney. Ray explanation. 85 facts. 78-9 experiment.C. 78 hypothesis. 144 Farr. 39 Evans. ( . 224 Fischer. 166 theory. Edgar R. (1942-?) statistical graphics. 224 statistics. 85 fact. 85 questionnaire. 269 test. 243 tables. 134 probabilities. Scott (1896-1940) statistics.

Francis (1822-1911) average. 9 average value.) average rate. Barbara ( . 119 Froude. R. 167 Forster. 96 Fleiss.) statistically. 71 error. 40 Galton. 23 Fox. Edward (1737-1794) law of probability.) normality. 225 statistics. ( . 168 Geary. 79 facts. 72 Gibbon. 184 Gilbert and Sullivan doubt. law of frequency of. 167 Freidman.C. 167 probability. Wlim (1540-1603) probability. 167 -G- Gallup. primary. (1951-?) probabilities. 56 differences. index of. Sam Walter (1858-1911) average man. (1937-?) biometrician. E. Martin ( . 286 Gann. Joseph L. 54 data. 129 probabilities. 31 error. 9 odds. 243. George ( . 184 error.S.) statistician. 225 statistician. 137 Freeman. 244 variability. 167 Fry. 71 law of deviations. 129 medium. 129 law of frequency of error. 286 variable. Austin (1862-1943) data. (1809-1868) probabilities. Charlotte P. 8 Fourier. laws of. 202 theorem. Thomton C. 95 laws of probability. 79 fact. 225 Foss. 224. 130 probable. Sigmund (1856-1939) hypothesis. W. 31 chance. 9 averages. 8 Freud.D. 286 error. ( . 23 certainty. J. Ernest K. 9 chance. 54 correlation. John (1685-1732) probability. 54. 9 cause. 278 ila Gilbert. 30.406 STATlSTlCALLY SPEAKING Galsworthy. 96 Gilbert. 95 Gay. (1910-1991) statistics. 40 correlation. whimsical effects of. 168 Gilman. James Anthony (1 18-1894) 8 average. Linton C. 243 Freeman. theory of. 54 correlation. 40 probabilities. law of. binomial. 225 Forbes. 167 Freeman. R. 243 .) facts. 204 statistician. 211 statistical science. (1927-?) statistics. (1836-1911) list. 244 Garson. Russell ( . Jean Baptiste Joseph (1768-1 830) causes. Thomas L. (1892-?) probability.) measurement. 56 laws of probability. (1861935) facts. John (1867-1953) certain. 129-30 statistical conclusions.M.

202 statistics. 169 science. 245 Hardy. Edith (1867-1963) theories.J. Oliver (1850-1925) facts. George (1857-1903) probability. 245 Heaviside. (1901-1976) observer. Henry ( . Kenneth R. 152 Hamilton. S.) probability. (1926-1993) percent. F. Samuel (1879-1974) impossible. 123 Good. Sidney ( .) probable. David R. Audrey ( .) experiment. 204 Harris. Walter (1915-1987) average. 168 sample. 72 probability. Richard ( . 154 Hancock. 41 Harvey. 245 survey. 245 Hand. Arthur (1947-?) statistics. 10 . 212 statistics. Robert A. Celia ( .F.) statistical difficulty. Ian (1936-?) predict. 144 Guest. 191 statistical outcome.) models. William (1756-1836) experiment.) statistician.) causation. 226 Goodman. (1946-?) statistical methods. 23 Heisenberg. Francis Bret (1836-1902) average. 267 Heise. Leslie ( . ( . Balthasar (1601-1658) probabilities. 169 407 -HHabera. M. 278 Hamming. ( . Paul (1918-?) chance. 10 Harris. 211 Godwin. 96 odds. 211 Greer. ( . S.A. ( . (1908-?) probability. 168 Greedman.AUTHOR BY SUBJECT INDEX Gissing. 72 Harrison.) statistics. 287 Hawking. 50-50. 169 Hammond. H. Scott (1935-?) observation. William Keith (1898-?) statistics. Richard W.) statistics. (1907-1988) facts. D. 85 Goldwyn. 40 Harte. Thomas (1840-1928) average human nature. 212 statistics.A.) statistics.) statistical mumbo jumbo. 144 Heller. 156 Hailey. 40 Gumperson.J. 211 things. Errole E. 68 Hayford. (1947-?) dice. 140 Green. ( . 85 Greenwood. 150 research. (1915-?) distribution. R. 244 Glantz. (1951-?) prayer. D. ( . I. Harry (1925-?) information. W. 96 random numbers. William (1578-1657) diversities.) Bemoulli.R. 245 Haldeman. 244 Hacking. 184 Hammond. 10 Harvey. 61 outlier. 278 Heinlein. 199 statistical norm. Judith (1936-?) chance. 244 Gracian.

212 statistical reasoning. (1853-1937) common sense. 193 data. 145 reason. 279 Hippocrates (460?-370? B. (1809-1894) average. 193.T. O. C.G.) probability. 144. 279 Helvetius. 212 statisticians. Nick ( . 41 Henry. Elbert (1856-1915) 1 average man. 700 B.408 STATlSTlCALLY SPEAKlNG Holmes.H. 119 observe. Sherlock analytical reasoner. 79 Hoel. 31 statistics. Sir Geoffrey ( . (1862-1910) average. 247 Hooker. Richard (1554-1600) probabilities. 246 Henry. Jr. 10 data. 10 statistics. 169 Hopkins. O. 24 conjecture. 194 theories. 107 Herbert. 65 statistics. 96. 31 Hogben. 97. 23 coincidence. 1 Hubble. P.) facts.?) chances.C. 51. 212 Howe. Thomas (1588-1679) err. 31 facts.W. 41 Hood. DuBose (1885-1940) dice. 31 Heyward.) certainties. 3 certainty. Mary (1799-1888) observe. Thomas (1799-1845) dice. 97 probabilities. 69 Hooke.A. 145 Hoyle. Fred (1915-?) data. 212 Hoffer.) mean. 150 Hubbard. James (1900-1954) theorem.W. 169 Herodotus (486-430 B. 57 fact. Lancelot (1895-1975) statistically significant result.C. 57 design of experiment. 246. Robert (1918-?) average. 169 Holmes. 56. Harold (1945-?) statistical theory. 107 Hobbes. 57 outlier. P. 169 Howitt. 41 Heyworth. 247 Hotelling. 98 hypothesis.C. (1905-?) statistical methods. 246 . 49 Holmes. Patrick (1736-1799) forecast. 0. 279 Homer (800 B. 41 Herschel. E.154 probability. 200 Hesiod (c. 226 statistics. 97. (1841-1935) analysis. 247 Horace (65-8 B. 96 Hilton.?-?) chance. 10 cause. 10 statistics. (1715-1771) chance. Harry (1890-1946) statistical analysis. 3 cause to effect..W. 246 Holbach. (1723-1789) chance. 212 statistics. Edwin (1889-1953) theory.C.) forecast. John (1792-1871) residual. Eric (1902-1983) certain. 23 certainty. 98 facts.C.

Christiaan (1629-1695) probability. 197 Kac. Mane ( . (1920-?) probabilities. laws of.) statistical records. William (1842-1910) cause and effect. Mark ( .D. 32 percent. Lyndon B. 24 chance. Thomas (1743-1826) experiment. William Ralph (1860-1954) 1 average man.AUTHOR BY SUBJECT INDEX Huff. 98 Jeans. Henry (1843-1916) fact. 85 probability. 123 probabilities. 170 Huxley. 287 Huygens. 171 Jefferys. W. 80 experiment. 79. Ben (1572-1637) observe. 247 statistical theory. 1 Jacobs. Thomas H. 152 Jefferson. 248 truth. 170 Hunter.) statistics. (1835-1882) errors. Palmer 0. 226 statistics. 61 Hugo. 42 Jones. 213 -J- James. 247 Jones. 86 Huxley. P. ( . 98 impossible. Franklin P. 119 law.) middle american. 130 mistake. 170 409 -1Inge. Joseph ( . 152 statistic. Darrell ( . 86 probabilities. Norton (1929-?) average family. James Hopwood (1877-1946) certain. 86 fact. 170 variability.) statistics. 135 Jevons. 1 1 averages.) -K- . 213 statistician. (1915-?) statistical laws. John (1728-1793) experiment. 213 statistical probabilities. 79 Hume. 247 Johnson. 1 1 Jahoda.S. 145 Juster. 213 statisticulation. 24 causes. 24 cause and effect. 98 James.) percent. 98 hypothesis. 12 impossible. 32 chance. 171 James. Raymond F. David (1711-1776) cause. 287 Hunter. (1825-1895) errors. 25 causes. 284 Jonson. Evan (1926-?) probability. 80 knowledge. Harold (1891-1989) likelihood. Aldous (1894-1963) average. 25 facts. 41 experiment. ( . Victor (1802-1885) blunders. Samuel (1696-1772) certainty. (1908-1973) statistics. 11 facts. 123 regression. 247 Johnson. 79 vary. 126 Johnson.

214 statistician. 248. John Maynard (1883-1946) analysis of the instances.) statistician. Immanuel (1724-1804) cause and effect.) facts. 249 Krutch. (1937-?) laws. W. Edward (1878-1955) equiprobability. 196 standard deviation. Joseph (1941-?) Bayesian.F. 72 probability. F. 61 - . 3 Kelly-Bootle.) Bemoulli. 172 Koshland. 227 statistics. L. Robert ( . law of. 214 Kipling. (1907-1983) experiment. D. 188 recursive. (1920-?) statistics. 1 Kasner.) laws. Daniel E. 156 statistical techniques. 99 Kruskal.) law. Stan ( . 248 Kerridge. 248 Krass. 130 measure. James gambling. Andrei N. Edward and Newman.) theory. William (1919-?) statistical sea. 171. 61-2 statistics. 72 map. 130 Kant.) actuary. ( . 226 statistics. ( . 268 Kasner. 72 Knebel. 140 Karpansky.. John (1795-1821) variable. Ralph and Raiffa. 12 measurement. 248 Kolmogorov. 86 Latin Square. Jr. 194 symmetry. 213 MTBF. 137 measurement.. Abraham ( . Pyetr Leonidovich (1894-1984) experiment. 172 normal law. 248 summation convention. 99 Kitaigordski. Kyburg. 227 Keynes. Joseph Wood (1893-1970) average. barometer of. Maurice G. Rudyard (1865-1936) facts. H. statistical. ( . 214 statisticians. 86 Kaplan. 111 Keats. 213 Karlin. theory of. 279 Kneale. 130-31 Kratovil. Howard analysts. 171 reasons. John (1934-?) averages. (1903-1987) probability. 12 Keeney. 3 common sense. Aleksander Isaakovich ( . 137 model. 172 probability. 188 MTT'R.E. 171 King. (1906-1990) Bernoulli's theorem. (1928-?) probability. Willford ( ) Babylonical Statistical Association. 51 probability. 25 Kapitza. 171 Kadane. Samuel (1924-?) models. 138 Jr.410 STATISTICALLY SPEAIUNG Kendall. 140 predict. 62 Monte Carlo method. Leo P. Fletcher (1911-1993) statistics. 12 average. 287 Keegan. 18 Kadanoff.

148-9 Ludlum. 99 Lasker. 73 Lippmann. Don ( . 172 LaSage. (1923-?) probabilists. 18 Lucretius (99?-55 B. M. 173 Lewis. 249 LeCam.) statistics. ( . John (1370-1451) . 251 Lydgate. 32 probability. 250 statistics. 251 statistics. Clarence Irving (1883-1 964) probabilities. Peter ( . 279-80 Lee. Konrad (1993-1989) hypothesis. 249 statistical method. 214 statistical prediction. 145 Longfellow. 184 statistical generalizations.AUTHOR BY SUBJECT INDEX 411 -LLaGuardia. Hannah Famham (1780-1865) causes.) uniformly. 51 probability. 32 probabilities. Lillian R. 249 Lapin. Stephen (1869-1944) average. Albert D. 173 probability. C. Pierre-Simon (1749-1827) analysis. (1871-1936) fact. (1941-?) observations. test. 215 statistical situation. 250. Dennis V.) and Burke. ( .J. 25 Leibniz. 111 measure. Georg (1742-1799) causes. 173 Lindley. (1929-?) statistics. 12 statistics. Lawrence ( . 69 statistics. Fiorello (1882-1947) statistics. 25 gambling. 249 Lang. John (1632-1704) certainty. 199 Latin Expression chance. (1880-1952) research. 42 Loren. 250 Locke.C. 174 statistic. A. (-1 Lichtenberg. chi-sauare. (1924-?) theorem.A. 249 Laplace. 173 probable. 250 Lock. Alan Rene ( .) Bayesians. 73 Lieber. C. 287 Lewis. L. Andrew (1844-1912) dice.S.S. S. 273 .(1898-1963) hypothesis. 174 probability. David (1863-1945) statistics. 119 Luchenbruch. 4 common sense. central limit. Abraham (1809-1865) probability. Robert (1927-?) probabilities. 138 Lidberg. 173 variable. 12 average education.) order.) average man. 119 probability. G. (1845-1921) normal approximation. Agnes C. 99 Leacock. 174 Longair. 173 Lippmann. 73 1 . 214-5 Lewis. 250 Lloyd George. Henry Wadsworth (1807-1882) chance. Gottfried Wilhelm (1646-1716) certain.) facts. Walter (1889-1974) statistical devices. 13 Lincoln. 42 Laut.

) statistical methods. 252 Newton. W. 131 Meyers. 108 Meredith.F. A. 73 McNemar. (1940-?) average. Sir Isaac (1642-1727) analysis. James R. 131 Milton. 280 Moroney. Wayne C. Robert M.) research. 215 statistical problem. B l (1921-?) il law of averages. Agnes (1887-1970) laws of probability. 204 Maier. 43 Minnick. 227 Mill. 271 Mosteller. (1928-?) data. (1921-?) likelihood. William (1907-?) mistake. Jr. 57 forecast. 4 errors. (1916-1986) probability. 42. ( . G.W. Gregory statistics. 216 statistician.J. Quinn (1900-?) sample.F. 190 Miksch.) statistics. (1842-1924) statistics. 199 Moger. Andrew H. N.) theorem. Malcolm (1903-1990) probability. 227 statistics. 114 Mallarme. 184 statistical analysis.. 120 hypothesis. excellence of. F. 202 Mr. (1916-?) sample. Thomas L. ( . 174 Macy. 251 Martin. 80 Mansfield. 251 teach. Dexter (1908-1989) chance. 194 . (1943-?) statistics. Art. 25 law of causation. method of. ( . Stephen (1842-1890) dice. ( . 251 Muggeridge. 32 Marlowe. 175 reasoning. Wilson ( .. 42 probabilities. 4 Marshall. John (1608-1674) chance. Fransois (1783-1855) science. (1900-?) facts. 215 Mellor. 227 statisticians. 131 May. 194 Misner. 99 Meyer. Jr. John (1823-?) statistics. habit of. 119 reason. J. 114 probable. Lord (1705-1793) certainty. M. August (1 822-1 910) statistical judgment. scavenger of. ( .412 STATIS TICAL LY SPEAKING -MMacDonald. 4 cause. George (1912-1987) queueing. 145 Magendie.) statisticians. 62 graph. 175 -NNeter. 13 figure. (1936-?) logistic equation. 4 analysis. 215 Mikes.J. Christopher (1564-1593) analytics. 69 Manners. John Stuart (1806-1873) analysis. 252 Neuman.) probability. Owen (1924-?) facts. 135 Masters. 202 Meitzen.R. 80 hypotheses. Arthur (1842-1904) observation. John D. 99 Malcolm. 174 Mauldin.

80 413 -0Old Army Saying queue. 150 Peirce. 54 statistical laws. 86 Parry. 13 facts. 114 probabilities. John Boyle (1844-1890) statistical Christ.) chance. Seymour (1928-?) recursion. 191 Peirce. 280 O’Neil. (1913-1994) average American. Blaise (1623-1662) cause. John (1860-1939) theory. 100 random. 145 Oppenheim. Charles Sanders (1839-1 914) error. 216 Pavlov.) questionnaire. E.AUTHOR BY SUBJECT INDEX Nietzsche. Edwin G. 99 Nixon. 100 Oman. 65-6 Pearl. 26 Nightingale. 287-8 Peers. (1926-?) design of experiment. 131 Ovid (43 B. ( . 216 statistics.) Osbom’s Law.) cause.E. Benjamin (1809-1880) outlier. Karl (1857-1936) correlations. 184 Pasteur. W. appearance of. 252 theory.S. 43 . 100 Ozick. 152 statistical evidence. 175 probable. 43 hypothesis. 272 OMalley.) percent. 26 facts. 267 Oppenheimer. 43 effect.) questionnaires. Abraham Naffali ( . Austin (1862-1943) facts.) teach. 175 statistical method. 252 Osbom. Julius Robert (1904-1967) facts. 175 Pearson. probable. Don ( . Richard M. 100 Peacock. John K.D. 62 percent. 43 Paulos. Friedrich (1844-1900) chance. 216 Orwell. 216 variability.) probability. 100 -PPaley. Thomas ( . 120 mean. E. Ivan (1849-1936) facts. Wlim (1743-1805) ila chance. Philippus Aureolus (1493-1541) experiment. (1912-?) observation. 190 Olds. 13 Nizer. John ( . 13 probability. 196 Paracelsus. Louis (1902-1994) statistics. Louis (1822-1895) chance.-18 A. 43 facts. Florence (1820-1910) averages. 26 chance. 43 Papert. 217 Pearson. John Allen (1945-?) innumerancy. ( . Judea (1936-?) graphs. George (1903-1950) statistics. Cynthia (1928-?) facts. 267 chance. 152 Pascal. 100 O’Reilly.C.M. 280 Norton. ( .

) cause. calculus of. Theodore M. 176 Poincark. Max (1858-1947) experiment. 176 probabilities.) inference.) Monte Carlo Theorem.C. 26 Pratchett. 270 statistical knowledge. 176 probable. 114 information. Karl R. 149 Popper. 108 Perec. 281 . 177 Price. 44 probability.C. 217 statistics. (1919-1990) measure. Latin fact. 26 Plutarch (46-119) die.C. 175 probability. 205 theories. 87 fact.) facts. theory of. 86 fact. 131 Prior. G. 184 Plautus (254-184 B. 176-7 probable. 108 observe. 111 Pope. 101 Plato (428-348 B. Frederik ( . 69 Poe. Richard (1723-1781) laws. (1948-?) probability. 80 experiment.) chance. 26 Pomfret. 43-4 experimental. 176 probable. 146 order.414 STATISTICALLY SPEAKlNG Pohl. 253 Peter. Matthew (1664-1721) probability. Phineas ( . 176 tables. 80 Pompidou. 253 Prakash. 280-1 8 01 Perrin. 281 Porter. Henri (1854-1912) chance. 185 Polya. Michael ( . Jean (1 7 . Alexander (1688-1744) chance. 154 probabilities. Lawrence J. 87 experiments. 281 Pettie. 138 Petit. Luigi (1867-1936) facts. T. 26 Phrase. 62 Plotinus (205-270) cause. (1953-?) statistics. theory of. 101 Playfair. 101 foresee. George (1548-1589) cause. (1902-1994) observations. 280 Penjer. 101 Planck.942) statistics. Jean-Pierre ( . 100 Pirandello. 146 prediction. 175. William (1789-1857) graphs. 146 probability.) forecasts. 270 theory of probabilities. 73 errors. 87 prayer. 101 facts. 69 Polybius (200-118 B. 178 probabilities. 66 observations. John (1667-1702) err’d. (1887-1985) dice. 185 science. 44-5 errors.) theorems. Georges (1911-1974) gambling. Edgar Allen (1809-1849) theory of probabilities. Satya (1938-?) cause and effect. 253 Plonk.) chance. 45 design of experiment. Georges ( .

132 Puzo. Raymond (1903-1976) cause. 254 Rohault. 74 statistical. Herbert (1893-1968) Proverb. 46 Reade. Adolphe (1796-1874) facts.) binary. Will (1879-1935) statistical illiterates.) Proverbs measurement. 273 217 Ramsey. 288 Ramsey. 178 error. 254 Puckett. Sir Walter (1551-1618) facts. 254 Ritsos. 217. mathematics of. 14 forecast. Lewis Newton ( . German probabilities. 253 law. 102 average man. English measure. 178 Proverb. 74 fact. Spanish theory of probability. 13 Roberts. 13 reasoning. 178 observation. 27 facts. 48 statistics. James B. 281 statistics.) Proverb. agreeable. 81 Proverb. 69 average. 102 Monte Carlo Fallacy. 217 Rogers. Chinese statistics. 254 Robinson. Yannis ( .) Pynchon. 138 chance. Roy A. Alexis L. 138 chance. 14 statistic. 102 -Q- . 112 average minds. 254 graph. 194 theory. (1892-?) Quetelet. 135 Romanoff. 254 statistical cherub. H.G. 114 Read. 253 Reynolds. Hans (1891-1953) cause. (1900-1986) gamblers. Greek average. 281 -RROSS.) statistics. ( . Jacques ( .JoAnn ( .) Proverb. 146 Redfield. ( .) Queneau. Frank (1921-?) examination. Latin Reichenbach. ( . Mario (192&?) Rickover. Italian Reagan. examinations. 273 American Statistical Association. 27 probable. Thomas (1937-?) dice. 46 likelihood. 108 probability. H. Ronald (1911-?) probabilities. Charles (1814-1880) Proverb. 27 posit. 114 statistics.) Rhodes. 178 variety. 62 cause and effect. Andrew ( . Charles E. Frank Plumpton Proverb (1903-1930) statists. 102 probability. 185 Proverb.AUTHOR BY SUBJECT INDEX 415 Proschan.) Poisson equation.T. ( . Nora ( . 253 probability. 217 graph.) Raleigh.

Friedrich (1759-1805) chance. 256 statistics. 157 Seaton. Sir Walter (1771-1832) chance. 87 -SSalsburg. 123 mean. 255 Russell. 147 probable. (1893-1957) theories. 14 Shakespeare. professor of. 178 second law of thermodynamics. 102 laws. 32 chance. 179 Shelley. mathematics of. 58 facts. American Journal of.F. 138 probability. 147 observers. ( . ( . Dudly ( . 256 Statistics. 132 measurement. David S. slaves of. 114 impossible. (1872-1970) averages.) statistician.) cause. 46 Schumacher. 46 Russell. 185 Savage. 138 observations.L. 256 Seuss. 47 die. (1931-?) statistics. Peter (1926-?) average. 48 chances. 32 fact. 282 Schiller. 46 probabilities. Jean-Paul (1905-1980) probabilities.) facts. (1915-?) predict. (1911-1977) observation. 81 Russell. 257 Shaw. William (1564-1616) cause.) statistics. 28 causes. 186 reasons. 102 Shapiro.J. statistical. disastrous. Raymond J. 14 causality. Arthur (1788-1860) chance. Paul A. Damon (1884-1946) chance. E.J. Ludwig ( . ( . 255 Samuelson. 156 Sartre. Ernest (1871-1937) experiment. R. 70 graph. 27 data. observation.) design of experiment. 47 chance. 132 statistics. 66 Rutherford.) statistics. 46 soothsayer. E. scientific. 146-7 . 27 Rudner. Dorothy L. (1906-?) theory. 14 measure. 255 Sayers. 27 certainty. students of. Erich (1937-?) statistical expectations. 195 Shapere. 179 Schlozer. G. ( . 255 Schopenhauer. 282 Segal.416 STATISTICALLY SPEAKING Scott. Bertrand A. 178 probable. 218 statistics. Cheryl (1953-?) error. 27. L. 103 probability. 147 Shaffer. 48 Rousseau. 218 Runyon. 185. Dr. Percy Bysshe (1792-1822) chance. George Bernard (1856-1950) certainty. 103 facts. Karl (1913-?) statistics. 228 Seeger. Jean Jacques ( .) strong enough.

15 averages. method of. ( . 258 Streatfield. F. ( . 186 Spearman. Mr. 108 surveys. 123 Skinner. Jonathan (1667-1745) observation. (1818-1864) facts. Rex (1886-1975) statistics. 147 -TTaylor.F. 258 Steme. (1904-1990) knowledge. laws of. law of.) statistics. 218 Stewart. (1891-1967) probability. 141 measure. 153 Suidas ( . ( . 179 Stout.E. Frank M. W. 14 sampling. Logan Pearsall (1865-1946) statistics.P. Wilhelm (1868-1940) statistics. ( .) knowledge. 202 Smedley. J.) statistics. Mark Alan ( . 48 Terence (185-159 B. law of. 228 Snood.) statistician. 15 facts. 267 Strunsky.) averages. 126 Slonim. 229 Stoppard. Charles (?-1945) measurement. Lydia ( . 108. Ben ( . Susan (1939-?) analysis.) causes. 257 Sophocles (496-406 B. 103 Smith. B. 257 Smollett. 103 Snedecor.) probable. Simeon (1879-1948) statistics. Alan ( . Grover averages. Laurence (1713-1768) hypothesis.) impossibility.C. 192 South.A.) forecast. 139 random. ( . 48 facts. Reginald H. 58 Steadman.C.) statistics. O. 109 forecaster. ( . 258 Stamp. 258 Sturgeon. 103 . 109 forecasts. Indian. 228 statisticians.) average.) chance.W. 103 probability. Morris James ( . 15 statistical method. Alfred Lord (1809-1892) chance. 259 Tennyson. 14 Solomon. 189 Sheynin. 139 Stalin. Josef (1879-1953) statistic. Josiah (1880-1941) average.) dice. 4 Shewhart. 103 Strong. 70 Swift. 218 statistician. age of. 228 statistics. 258 statisticians. Tobias (1721-1771) facts. Stephen M. 15 Stigler. G. Anton (1860-1904) statistics. Justice Geoffrey (1897-1978) facts.B. 189 417 Stekel.) percent. Robert ( . law of. 257 Smith. 120 statistical balance.AUTHOR BY SUBJECT INDEX Sherman. 28 Tchekhov.) quality control.) least squares. Tom (1937-?) average. 258 Stamaty. Theodore ( .

28 chance. Leo (1828-1910) cause. L. 49 laws. 180 Tolstoy. ( . 229 statistics. Matthew (1657-1733) fact. 153 statistics. 103 Tippett. Lao (c. 231 causality. 109 hypothesis. 15 Tufte. 219 praying. 81 tools. 104 percent. 186 -UUnknown actuaries.) cause and effect. 139 Thomsett. 260 Thucydides (471-400 B. 58 impossible. 5 error. Johnnie ( . ( . 261 Tertullian (160-230) impossible.418 STATIS TlCALLY S P E A K " Tollotson. 288 Toffler. 180 statisticians. 16 experimenting. John (1947-?) thinking statistically. possible. 64 variation. 272 Thoreau. Ivan (1818-1883) graph. (1942-?) graphical integrity. 115 statistical graphics. (1887-1955) factor analysis. 259 statistics course. 49 Thurber. John W. William M. L.) probability. Alvin (1928-?) probables. 230 statisticians. 16 average civilized man. 284 TSU. Mark (1835-1910) average. 5 biostatistician.C. 29 chance.) average.C. 154-5 statistician. John ( . 116 Twain.) analysis. 259 Thompson. (1811-1863) statistics.L. 218 Thom. William [Lord Kelvin] (1824-1907) measure. 135 statistician.) data. data.) chance. 121 likelihood. 28 cause. 28 Tsu. (1915-?) analysis. 259 The Bible chance. 260 Tindall.C. 81 jackknife.) statistic. 272 Turgenev. 132 Trollope. Henry David ( 3 7errors. 1 analysis. 230 statistics.Chuang ( . 219 Tiilmon. 1 actuary. scientific. 123 Thackery. 124 probability. 16 average man. Edward R. probability. 48 The Editors of The American S tu tisticiun statisticians. 115 Tukey. 5 forecasting. Anthony (1815-1882) statistics. 260 teaching. 604-531 B. 229 Thurston. James (1894-1961) data. 58 degrees of freedom. 87 facts. 260 true gospel. 49 . Michael C. 229 statistics.

74 probabilities. Edmund H. 49 critical ratio. 181 measurements. 263 outlier. 133 probability. 133 Bayesians. 33 recurse. 288 statistician. 74 Virgil (70-19 B. 263 -w- .) random. 17 statistics. Chamont (1949-?) Twyman’s Law. 262 Watson. 63 theory. 263 statistician. 63 data.) confounded effect. Karl (1730-1831) hyperexponential. standard. J. 139 statistical physics. 262 Walsh. Laurens ( . 197 probability. 263 quality. (1919-?) curve. eleven phases of an. 17 Waugh.AUTHOR BY SUBIECT INDEX 419 chances. 231. 75 Poisson distributions. Venn. 219 Volkhart. 262 Waller. 150 Poisson. 263 statisticians. 282 facts. 186 statistics. Richard (1883-1953) laws. 219 middle road. 196 forecast. 181 measure. (1834-1923) reasoning. 18 variance. 17 error. (1919-?) theorem. ( . 274 causes. Evelyn (1903-1966) averages. 29 correlation. 189 Walker. 180 88 theorising. 58 Voltaire (1694-1778) distribution. 263 -VWatson. probability. 75 average. 195 average. mathematical. 74 predict. 192 certain. 110 experiment. 203 statistics. 63 error. 282 nonparametric.) Van der Post. Robert James (1939-?) statistics. theory of. John E. 81 forecast. 16. 180 hypothesis. 181 statistics class. 104 Von Clausewitz. Dr. 139 probability. 157 Walcott.C. 230. 110 regression. 81 define. type IV. 282 Wang. 121 Von Mises. Derek (1930-?) probability. 81 statistics. Marshall ( . 180 experiment. 263 variates.) error. 181 samples. 16 statistics. type 111. 231 statistics. 262 probability. 54 chance. Alfred N. 74 statistics. 288 statistical inference. 231-2. 261. 88 probabilities. 232 statistics.

Richard (1787-1863) fact. 232 West. William Maston ( . (1902-1995) statistician. 232-3 Wilde. 70 probability. 288 White.) statistics. Jim (1922-?) likelihood. 203 statistics. ( . 198 statistician. 133 laws. William F. 17 examinations. 181. 182 Wigner. 105 facts. 265 Woodward. Thomton (1897-1975) dice. theory of. G. Ronald J. 274 -YYates. proper.U. ( . 133 observation. 182 Wilkins. (1856-1939) statistics. E. ( . 135 Wells. Robert S. Jessamyn ( . 265 Wolfowitz. (1866-1946) statistical thinking. 220 statistician. 105 impossible. 139 Wright. (1900-1971) normal law of error. Eugene P. ( . 124 probability. Oscar (1856-1900) average. 105 law. 104 Weyl. H e r " (1885-1955) experimenter. 82 experiment. Lancelot Law (1896-1972) probability.B. 104. 186 Wilson. Alfred North (1861-1947) analysis of the obvious. H. 264 Whyte. 88 Whatley.) variability. 88 fact.) statisticians.) regression.420 STATIS TICALLY SPEAKlNG facts. 233 . William Butler (1865-1939) statistics.G. 264 Whitehead.) facts. 147 probzbility. 181 samples. 283 Wonnacott. 182 Wordsworth.) theorems of statistics. J. (1849-1924) probabilities. 219-20 Yeats. W. 75 Yule.) statistics. William (1770-1850) measured. 272 Wilder.J. 5 error. ( . 265 Youden. F. 182 taught. 104 Wheeler. John (1614-1672) probable.

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