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KAConsulting LLC

To: Dave Bossie, Citizens United

From: Kellyanne Conway

Date: October 23, 2022

Re: New Poll - Washington Statewide Survey among 500 Registered Likely Voters

Which party will control the US Senate and its agenda is the big question on the ballot next
month. Washington is not on the list of “swing states,” yet Republican insurgent Tiffany Smiley
continues to lodge a respectable challenge against 30-year incumbent and reliable vote for the
unpopular Biden agenda Democrat Senator Patty Murray.

Our latest poll shows Murray leading Smiley 48% to 42%, a much closer margin than expected and
significantly different from the 59% vote share Murray pulled in six years ago (Biden got 58% in 2020).
Further troubling for Senator Murray, a majority of voters (52%) across Washington think the state is
headed off on the wrong track, including nearly 6-in-10 Independents. By a margin of voters 49%-37%,
voters prefer a candidate who “will be a check and balance on Biden and the Democrats,” over one that
“will support Joe Biden and Democrats pass their agenda” (that is literally Murray, who has voted with
Biden over 96% of the time).

At 49%-41%, Murray’s job approval-disapproval rating mirrors her current ballot position. She also is on
the losing end of another key survey question: whether Murray deserves re-election Washington (39%
agree) or whether it is time to give someone new a chance (51% say yes). That includes majorities of men
(53%), voters under 50 (58%), Independents (58%) and a plurality of women. Murray has a -6% net
approval rating among Independents, a group Smiley must win to pull off an upset victory.

Time is short. Murray’s incumbency and huge campaign war chest give her advantages in the race. But
Smiley has been shown courage and persistence by exposing the Senator’s voting record and lack of
responsiveness to growing concerns about crime and inflation. In what is shaping up to be a big
Republican year, the map is expanding, there will be surprises. Smiley is affable and accessible and
weaves her family’s personal story into her quest for public service. Murray is angling to start her fourth
decade in the other Washington, where her votes have become increasingly partisan and predictable.

KAConsulting LLC on behalf of Citizens United

Washington Statewide Survey of 500 Registered Likely Voters
Data Analysis Report - October 2022 1
KAConsulting LLC

Tiffany Smiley has some advantages going her way in the closing weeks among these key voting

● Among those that disapprove of Joe Biden, 81% support Smiley, 6% support Murray, 8%
remain undecided.

● Among those that want a check and balance on Biden and Democrats, 76% support Smiley,
13% support Murray, 6% remain undecided.

● Among Independent voters, 45% support Smiley, 38% support Murray, 10% remain undecided.

● Among those who want someone new and don’t think Murray deserves re-election, 77%
support Smiley, 11% support Murray, 7% remain undecided.

● Among those that think Washington is off on the wrong track, 71% support Smiley, 19%
support Murray, 5% remain undecided.

Survey Methodology
Citizens United recently commissioned a telephone survey of 500 registered likely voters in Washington.
This quantitative research was conducted between October 20-22, 2022 at a Computer-Assisted
Telephone Interviewing (CATI) facility (60% mobile phones, 40% landlines). Sampling controls were
used to ensure that a proportional and representative number of voters were interviewed from such
demographic groups as age, gender, race, and geographic region. The margin of error is ± 4.4% at the
95% confidence interval for overall survey, M.O.E.s for subgroups are larger.

KAConsulting LLC on behalf of Citizens United

Washington Statewide Survey of 500 Registered Likely Voters
Data Analysis Report - October 2022 2

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