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Michael Totten, Chief Advisor, Climate, Water and Green Technologies, Conservation International
Denin Dialogue Series Delaware Environmental Institute November 30, 2010
2 to 3% Annual Average growth Gross World Product (GWP) in 21st Century (~10 to 20x today’s GWP)
$500 trillion GWP ~$50,000 per cap # in poverty?
$1,000 trillion GWP ~$100,000 per cap # in poverty?
$50 trillion GWP ~$7,500 per cap 2+ billion in poverty
More absolute poor than any time in human history [alongside more wealth than ever]
Where we will be by 2100
Past planetary mass extinctions triggered by high CO2 >550ppm
Parts per Million CO2
2010.55 million years since oceans as acidic – business-as-usual emissions growth threaten collapse of marine life food web Oceans Acidifying 40% decline in phytoplankton – base of the marine food web -.past 50 years Bernie et al. Influence of mitigation policy on ocean acidification. GRL .
Species extinction by humans 1000x natural background rate Species extinction .
Ecological Footprint .
A. L. J. E. Mandrak.. S. Lyons. DíazPardo. E. J. B. Conservation status of imperiled North American freshwater and diadromous fishes. Jr. A. Schmitter-Soto. B. J. N. J. B. Fisheries 33(8): 372–40 . Platania. 2008.Decline of North American Freshwater Fishes Fish species 8 times more threatened than mammals or birds in the USA Map source: Jelks. Walsh. Renaud. Taylor. D. F. Contreras-Balderas. E. S. S. Nelson. M. Hendrickson. H. C. S. N. Warren. McCormick. Burkhead. J. J. P. Porter. and M.
37% Freshwater Fish Species Threatened % Sources: IUCN Red List 2009 for species threatened. and IUCN 2000 for map .
Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries.purdue. www. Purdue Calumet.2 billion people lack safe water Ashok Gadgil. Global Water Solutions through Technology. 10/23/08.pdf .edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.
purdue. Global Water Solutions through Technology.Every hour 200 children under 5 die from drinking dirty water. www. 10/23/08. Every year. 60 million children reach adulthood stunted for good. Ashok Gadgil.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008. Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries.pdf . Purdue Calumet.
Global Water Solutions through Technology.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008. Purdue Calumet.pdf .cost billions of dollars in lost income to the poor Ashok Gadgil. Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries.purdue. 10/23/08.4 billion annual episodes of diarrhea exhaust physical strength to perform labor -. www.
2010 . Nature.Incident Human Water Security Threat Source: C. J.467 30 Sept. Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity. V. Vorosmarty et al. 2010.
2010 .Incident Biodiversity Threat Source: C. 2010. Vorosmarty et al. Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity. Nature. V.467 30 Sept. J.
2010 . Nature. Vorosmarty et al. V.Threat to Human Water Security & Biodiversity Source: C.467 30 Sept. 2010. Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity. J.
like this one in 2001 that swept aerosol particles into the Great Lakes region of the US. . and even left a sprinkling in the Alps mountains in Europe.Intensive farming and grazing practices and deforestation in China have led to more frequent dust storms.
which can spread far out to sea (inset). Leyrer/NIOZ (photo). Credit: J. NASA (inset) . has been linked to agriculture.Increased dust in the Sahel.
Water availability in +2°C and +4°C worlds References. Ana Lopez and Mark New. Trans. 2010.Direction of change in water run-off by 2060 2 C increase 4 C increase drier areas dry further & wetter areas become wetter Source: Fai Fung. 99-116 . Phil. R. Soc. A 2011 369.
2010. Phil. Ana Lopez and Mark New. R. A 2011 369. Soc.Seasonal changes Mean Annual Run-off 2060 Nile Ganges Murray Darling +2 C +4 C Danube Mississippi Amazon +2 C increasing to +4 C by 2100 Source: Fai Fung. Trans. Water availability in +2°C and +4°C worlds References. 99-116 .
Impacts by Country 2007. . Global Warming and Agriculture.Climate Impact on Agricultural Productivity at +4°C William Cline.
Interactions may result in societal impacts that are greater than the sum of individual sectoral impacts .
Resource Wars & Conflicts .
S. Ackerman. October 2009. The Economics of 350: The Benefits and Costs of Climate Stabilization..org/ . E.J.e3network.A.Comparing Cumulative Emissions for 350 ppm CO2 Trajectory GtCO2 BAU >80 GtCO2 and >850 ppm Based on 6 Celsius average global temperature rise due to greater climate sensitivity Need to reverse CO2 emissions by 2015 and become negative CO2 by 2050 to achieve <350 ppm Main difference between projections is assumption of rate of technology diffusion Source: F. Stanton. DeCanio et al. www.
DC: National Academies Press. .based on data from World Bank 2008. adapted from NRC (National Research Council). Washington. 2008. The National Academies Summit on America’s Energy Future: Summary of a Meeting. World Development Indicators 2008.Where the world needs to go: energy-related CO2 emissions per capita >$/GDP/cap Source: WDR.
harvard. or neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly harboring weapons of mass destruction Martin Weitzman …A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of climate-change environmental insurance policies might be that the U. 2008.Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading … a more illuminating and constructive analysis would be determining the level of "catastrophe insurance" needed: "rough comparisons could perhaps be made with the potentially-huge payoffs." MARTIN WEITZMAN. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. small probabilities.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL. REStat FINAL Version July 7.pdf.S. already spends approximately 3% [~$400 billion in 2010] of national income on the cost of a clean environment. 2008. http://www. . building anti-ballistic missile shields. and significant costs involved in countering terrorism.economics.
Averting catastrophes by Greening the Global Economy .
A. [online] URL: http://www. Dewulf. M. C. Taillieu. and T.org/vol13/iss2/art30/ .Examples of uncertainties identified in each of 3 knowledge relationships of knowledge Unpredictability Incomplete knowledge Multiple knowledge frames Natural system Technical system Social system Brugnach. knowing too differently.. Toward a relational concept of uncertainty: about knowing too little. and accepting not to know. Ecology and Society 13(2): 30.ecologyandsociety. 2008. Pahl-Wostl.
USA Water Chart 2004 45% US water use 75% US water consumption .
pdf Dr Ashok Gadgil.purdue. Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries. 264 gallons. www. inventor WaterHealth Intl device . Purdue Calumet. Global Water Solutions through Technology. 10/23/08. Mature components • Can treat unpressurized water • Rapid throughput: 12 seconds • Low maintenance: 4x per year • No overdose risk • Fail-safe Ashok Gadgil.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Globalwater%202008.A new water disinfector for the developing world’s poor DESIGN CRITERIA • Meet /exceed WHO & EPA criteria for disinfection • Energy efficient: 60W UV lamp disinfects 1 ton per hour (1000 liters. or 1 m3) • Low cost: 4¢ disinfects 1 ton of water • Reliable.
Global Water Solutions through Technology.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.purdue. Other Treatment Options Ashok Gadgil.pdf . 10/23/08. www. Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries.WHI’s Investment Cost Advantage vs. Purdue Calumet.
such as Cryptosporidium and Giardia. Purdue Calumet. oocysts.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008. Ashok Gadgil.pdf . 10/23/08.purdue.000 people.WaterHealth International The system effectively purifies and disinfects water contaminated with a broad range of pathogens. per day. The standard system is designed to provide 20 liters of potable water per person. Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries. Global Water Solutions through Technology. for a community of 3. www. including polio and roto viruses.
the user fees become attractive sources of revenue for the community after loans have been repaid. Purdue Calumet. Community members hired to conduct day-to-day maintenance of these “micro-utilities. www. Global Water Solutions through Technology. 10/23/08. And because the facilities are owned by the communities in which they are installed.pdf .” thus creating employment and building capacity.purdue.WaterHealth International Business model reaches underserved by including financing for the purchase and installation of our systems. Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008. such as sales and distribution of the purified water to outlying areas. User fees for treated water are used to repay loans and to cover the expenses of operating and maintaining the equipment and facility. as well as generating entrepreneurial opportunities for local residents to provide related services. Ashok Gadgil.
. Currently drip irrigation accounts for only 1% of the world‟s irrigated area.1524-28. yet conventional irrigation can waste as much as 80% of the water. Drip irrigation systems for water intensive crops such as cotton can mean water savings of up to 80% compared to conventional flood irrigation systems. Global Freshwater Resources: Soft-Path Solutions for the 21st Century. often unconnected to the amount of water used.pacinst. www. nearly 70% of water withdrawals go to irrigated agriculture. State of the Planet Special. pp.org/ Soft Water Path . Science. 28. but these techniques are out of reach for most small farmers. Such waste is driven by misplaced subsidies and artificially low water prices. Gleick. Nov. Less damage Globally. Less cost. 302.More productive. Peter H. 2003 V.
Dams & Future of Freshwater Ecosystems. Dam Right! Rivers at Risk.Immense Water Waste The efficiency of irrigation techniques is low and globally up to 1500 trillion liters (~400 trillion gallons) of water are wasted annually WWF. 2003 .
Leading Perspectives.org/?page=files/CorporateWaterFootprints. pp. http://www. Summer 2008.Hoekstra. (2008) Measuring your water footprint: What’s next in water strategy.Y.waterfootprint. 19. 12-13. A. .
. Holly Conte et al.Energy/Water Integration Benefits during Drought Periods Source: Andrew Belden. Univ. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy. Priscilla Cole. 2008. of Delaware. Integrated Policy and Planning for Water and Energy.
1200 1000 100.000+ Water consumption per kWh (relative to wind power=1) 1022 800 600 400 200 0 784 552 541 1 4 5 38 .
Green Power or Megadamus negavitae? .
Kelly CA. . BioScience 50: 766–75. Reservoir surfaces as sources of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere: a global estimate. Brazil St. Duchemin E.Hydrodams 7% GHG emissions Tucuruí dam. et al. Louis VL. 2000.
02 7. June 2004 . International Rivers Network.5 Balbina 3150 250 13 6.12 58 Source: Patrick McCully. Tropical Hydropower is a Significant Source of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Interim response to the International Hydropower Association.15 0.91 0.60 2.Net Emissions from Brazilian Reservoirs compared with Combined Cycle Natural Gas Reservoir Area (km2) Generating Capacity (MW) DAM km2/ MW Emissions: Hydro (MtCO2eq/yr) Emissions: CC Gas (MtCO2eq/yr) Emissions Ratio Hydro/Gas Tucuruí CuruáUna 24330 4240 6 8.22 4 72 40 2 0.
2008. UNESCO-IHE. Hoekstra. A. the Netherlands. 29. Delft. . Water footprint of bio-energy and other primary energy carriers..W.What about Biofuels? The water requirements of energy derived from biomass are about 70 to 400 times more than that of other energy carriers such as fossil fuels. and solar. Th. van der Meer.. wind. P. Source: Gerbens-Leenes. Value of Water Research Report Series No. More than 90% of the water needed is used in the production of the feedstock.
edu/biofuels/) .W. Proceedings of the Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE) International Biofuels Project Rapid Assessment. Howarth and S. Germany. & Berndes. 22-25 September 2008. G. http://cip. . Gummersbach.) Biofuels: Environmental Consequences and Interactions with Changing Land Use.Projections of crop water use and irrigation withdrawals for bio-energy Source: De Fraiture. Biofuels and water. Bringezu (Eds. C.cornell. 2009. Ithaca NY: Cornell University. Pages 139-153 in R.
Intact ecosystems and biodiversity-rich habitats under constant threat.Food. Fuel. an additional 1700 million ha of land required for agriculture. 800 MILLION HA OF ADDITIONAL LAND FOR MEDIUM GROWTH BIOFUEL SCENARIOS. Species Tradeoffs? By 2100. .
Onroad Vehicles? Solar-w/storage Wind turbines ground footprint Wind-w/storage turbine spacing Cellulosic ethanol Corn ethanol Solar-storage and Wind-storage refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles.S. Jacobson. Stanford University. Atmosphere/Energy Program. and Energy. Health. Dept. March 5.Area to Power 100% of U. Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate. CAES or other storage technologies Mark Z. . of Civil & Environmental Engineering.
A power source delivered daily and locally everywhere worldwide. never failing. continuously for billions of years. never interrupted. never subject to the volatility afflicting every energy and power source used in driving economic activity Solar Fusion Waste as Earth Nutrients – 1336 Watts per m2 in the Photon Bit stream .
SUN FUSION PHOTONS .
along highway walls. cities and residences cover 56 million hectares. and in dual-uses. Requires 93% less water than fossil fuels.In the USA.S. energy requirements can be met simply by applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of existing urban area— on roofs. Every kWh of current U. on sides of buildings. parking lots. Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of new land to make PV our primary energy source! .
2001. Cleaning Up Brownfield Sites w/ PV solar Larry Kazmerski. www.nrel. Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity. National Renewable Energy Lab.Solar Photovoltaics (PV) satisfying 90% total US electricity from brownfields 90% of America’s current electricity could be supplied with PV systems built in the “brown-fields”— the estimated 2+ million hectares of abandoned industrial sites that exist in our nation’s cities. .gov/.
udel.33 +$14. July 2001. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy.024 1.70 Aluminum SunSlate Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial building in Switzerland PBP (yrs) 2 2 Byrne et al.China Economics of Commercial BIPV Building-Integrated Photovoltaics Net Present Values (NPV). of Delaware. Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit) Material Replaced Economic Measure Beijing Shanghai Polished Stone NPV ($) BCR +$18.237 2. Twww. Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR) & Payback Periods (PBP) for „Architectural‟ BIPV (Thin Film. Economics of Building Integrated PV in China.586 2.373 1. Univ.89 1 +$11.edu/ceep/T] .14 PBP (yrs) NPV ($) BCR 1 +$15.
.China EconomicsCommercial BIPV Economics of of Commercial BIPV Reference costs of facade-cladding materials BIPV is so economically attractive because it captures both energy savings and savings from displacing other expensive building materials. P. National Renewable Energy Lab.nrel. 2003. www. NREL/TP-550-31977. Eiffert. International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7: Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment. Jan.gov/ . Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems.
Municipal Solar Financing – Long-Term. Low-Cost Financing .
21GW Global Cumulative PV Growth 1998-2008 MW 40% annual growth rate Doubling <22 months 40% annual growth rate through 2030 could provide twice current total world energy use Compared to: Wind power 121.000 MW Hydro power 770.000 in 2009] Nuclear power 350.000 MW [158.000 MW Natural Gas power 1 million MW Coal power 2 million MW 2009 .
000.000.000.000.000.000.000 2.000.000 4.000.000.000.000.000 12.000 14.000.000 6.000 14.000.000.000 0 2000 1 2009 4 2021 7 2033 10 2045 13 2057 16 2069 2089 19 2069 59 TW by 2075 Year Equal to total world consumption in 2009 16.000 2.000 8.000 4.000 6.000 0 59 TW by 2119 2009 4 2029 7 2049 10 Year Megawatts 2000 1 2069 13 2089 16 2109 19 2109 .000 Solar PV Growth @ 25% year Solar PV Growth@ 25% perper year Megawatts 10.000 12.000 Solar PV Growth@ 15% per per year Solar PV Growth @ 15% year 10.000 8.What Annual Growth Rate Can Solar PV Sustain this Century? 16.000.000.
Plug‐in Hybrids. http://Solar. Institute for Analysis of Solar Energy.edu . George Washington University. & Wind.Ken Zweibel. Solar.edu/ . 2009. firstname.lastname@example.org.
Solar PV Charging stations Electric Bicycles/Scooters .
Solar power beats thermal plants within their construction lead time—at zero carbon price Source: Amory Lovins. RMI2009 from Ideas to Solutions.rmi.org/ citing SunPower analysis . Nov. Reinventing Fire. www. 2009.
2 1 PV 1 NUCLEAR 2 . 50 40 Solar Photovoltaics (1975-2009) 30 20 10 0 $4.Federal Research & Development Funds 90 80 70 60 Billion $ 2008 constant $85 2 Civilian Nuclear Power (1948 – 2009) vs.
GIS Mapping the Solar Potential of Urban Rooftops 100% Total Global Energy Needs -. WATER. FUELS OR EMISSIONS – Achievable this Century Germany's SUN-AREA Research Project Uses ArcGIS to calculate the possible solar yield per building for city of Osnabroeck. .NO NEW LAND.
cross integrates data with administrative and financial programs for installing and maintaining solar PV systems. . calculates revenue stream based on real-time dynamic power market price points.Solar smart poly-grids Continuous algorithm measures incoming solar radiation. converts to usable energy provided by solar photovoltaic (PV) power systems.
. Information used to rank expansion of solar panel locations.Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power Auctions Smart Grid Collective intelligence design based on digital map algorithms continuously calculating solar gain.
Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) & Decoupling sales from revenues are key to harnessing Efficiency Power Plants For delivering least-cost & risk electricity. California signed MOUs with Provinces in China to share IRP expertise (now underway in Jiangsu). . natural gas & water services USA minus CA & NY 165 GW Coal Power Plants Per Capital Electricity Consumption New York [EPPs] California Californian‟s have net savings of $1.000 per family California 30 year proof of IRP value in promoting lower cost efficiency over new power plants or hydro dams. and lower GHG emissions.
energy. Commissioner.State.CA. Arthur H.gov/commission/commissioners/rosenfeld. ARosenfe@Energy. California Energy Commission.Achieving the 2050 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goal How Far Can We Reach with Energy Efficiency?.ca.html . Rosenfeld. http://www.US . (916) 654-4930.
or about half the $258 billion per year currently spent subsidizing fossil fuels. or less than 1 % of global GDP. Not counting the efficiency savings the incremental cost of achieving a 450 ppm path is $66-96 billion per year between 2010–2020 for developing countries and $48–60 billion for developed countries.CO2 Abatement potential & cost for 2020 Breakdown by abatement type: • 9 Gt terrestrial carbon (forestry & agriculture) • 6 Gt energy efficiency • 4 Gt low carbon energy supply Zero net cost counting efficiency savings. .
Universal symbol for Efficiency eta η The best thing about lowhanging fruit is that it keeps growing back. SHRINKING footprints through Continuous innovation .
ELECTRIC MOTOR SYSTEMS Now use 1/2 global power 50% efficiency savings achievable 90% cost savings .
www.Cost of new delivered electricity (cents per kWh) CCS US current average nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind cogen end-use bldg scale recycled ind cogen efficiency cogen Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh. The Nuclear Illusion.rmi. May 2008.org .
www. The Nuclear Illusion.How much coal-fired electricity can be displaced by investing one dollar to make or save delivered electricity 2¢ 50 33 25 nuclear coal CC gas wind farm Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh. May 2008.rmi.org CC ind cogen end-use bldg scale recycled ind cogen efficiency cogen .
rmi. The Nuclear Illusion.Coal-fired CO2 emissions displaced per dollar spent on electrical services 2¢ 47 1¢: 93 kg CO2/$ 32 23 nuclear coal CC gas wind farm Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh. May 2008. www.org CC ind cogen end-use bldg scale recycled ind cogen efficiency cogen .
THANK YOU! Michael Totten Conservation International email@example.com .
Hypoxia Dead Zones due to Agriculture fertilizer run-off .
Mississippi River Delta Using Wastewater Pollutants as Feedstock for Biofuel Production through Algae Systems Yangtze River Pearl River .
Small Land footprint Only Wastewater as Feedstock Butanol. Biodiesel and Clean Water Outputs .
Smithsonian Institute. Marine Systems. email: ADEYW@si. Director.edu ph: 202 633-0923 .Source: Walter Adey.
Pasteurianum.) C6H12O6 C4H9OH + CO2 + … Solvent Extraction Oil Transesterification Organic Fertilizer Source: Walter Adey. Smithsonian Institute. polluted river water) Clean water + atmospheric CO2 ATS ALGAL BIOMASS Lower N P P. Marine Systems.edu ph: 202 633-0923 Biodiesel . email: ADEYW@si.Nutrient Rich Water (Sewage. Director. etc. higher O2 + pH (or power plant stack gases) Less CO2 in atmosphere CO2 Biobutanol Ethanol Acetone Lactic Acid Acetic Acid Fermenter (Clostridium butylicum C.
Biofuel Production from Algal Turf Scrubber Biomass
(50 tons per acre or 125 tons per hectare per year, dry)
Estimated Biofuel Production (gallons per acre or ha per year)
butanol biodiesel Corn (ethanol) 1520
Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: ADEYW@si.edu ph: 202 633-0923
95% U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains Figures of Merit
Great Plains area 1,200,000 mi2 Provide 100% U.S. electricity 400,000 3MW wind turbines Platform footprint 6 mi2 Large Wyoming Strip Mine >6 mi2
Total WindFarm spacing area
Still available for farming and prairie restoration 90%+ (34,000 mi2) CO2 U.S. electricity sector 40% USA total GHG emissions
Wind Farm Royalties – Could Double farm/ranch income with 30x less land area
Although agriculture controls about 70% of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross Regional Product. Wind farms could enable one of the greatest economic booms in American history for Great Plains rural communities, while also enabling one of world’s largest restorations of native prairie ecosystems
The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains = Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)
Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of Rural Farm and Ranch Income
US Farm Revenues per hectare
windpower farm $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250
windpower farm govt. subsidy windpower royalty farm commodity revenues $0 $200 $50
non-wind farm $60 $0 $64
Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/
Great Plains Dust Bowl in 1930s Again this century? .
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