Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 1/148 Thursday File

Egypt – Harvard/Berkley
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley..................................................................................................................1 ***Notes***.....................................................................................................................................5 ***1NC Shell***...............................................................................................................................6 *****Uniqueness*****..............................................................................................10 *****Uniqueness*****....................................................................................................................10 UQ Ext – A2: Dip Cap Low..............................................................................................................11 UQ Ext – A2: Military Control = N/U...............................................................................................12 UQ Ext – Focused Diplomacy.........................................................................................................13 Diplomacy Focus Key....................................................................................................................15 UQ Ext – Military Diplomacy..........................................................................................................16 UQ Ext – US Has Influence Over Military.......................................................................................18 UQ Ext – Timeframe – Next Few Months Key.................................................................................19 UQ Ext – Dip. K2 Election Timing...................................................................................................20 *****Links*****.......................................................................................................20 *****Links*****..............................................................................................................................20 A2: Link Turns: Timing – (A Must Read).........................................................................................21 2NC Link Magnifier - Focus............................................................................................................22 2NC Link Magnifier – Perception....................................................................................................23 2NC Aid Link Magnifier..................................................................................................................24 Ext – Aid Link: A2 Aid Cuts Now.....................................................................................................26 Ext – Aid Link: Econ Spark Instability.............................................................................................27 2NC Links – Plan Kills Coercive Diplomacy ..................................................................................28 Link – General...............................................................................................................................30 Link – Military Change...................................................................................................................35 Link – Afghanistan ........................................................................................................................36 Links – Asia....................................................................................................................................39 Link – Japan...................................................................................................................................41 Link – South Korea.........................................................................................................................42 Link – Iraq .....................................................................................................................................43 Link – TNWs ..................................................................................................................................48 Link – Turkey.................................................................................................................................51 *****Internal Links*****..........................................................................................51 *****Internal Links*****.................................................................................................................51 2NC Ext - Dip Cap Finite – Egypt...................................................................................................52 2NC Ext – Dip Cap Finite – Middle East..........................................................................................53 2NC Ext – Dip Cap Finite...............................................................................................................54 2NC Ext – Diplomatic Capital Key – Plan Cost................................................................................56 Military K2 Secular Transition........................................................................................................57 A2: Military Not Relinquish Power.................................................................................................59 Dip. K2 Transition – Military...........................................................................................................60 Sustained Diplomacy Checks Extremist Rise.................................................................................62 Dip Cap Checks Spillover..............................................................................................................63 A2: No Influence............................................................................................................................64 *****Impact Scenarios*****.....................................................................................64 *****Impact Scenarios*****...........................................................................................................64 ***Suez Canal Shell***............................................................................................64 ***Suez Canal Shell***..................................................................................................................64

Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 2/148 Thursday File Close Suez Canal = Price Shocks..................................................................................................66 Egypt K2 Oil Markets.....................................................................................................................67 Egypt – Military K2 Suez Canal......................................................................................................68 Impact Magnifier: Saudi Arabia.....................................................................................................69 ***Leadership Shell***..................................................................................................................70 Ext - Leadership............................................................................................................................74 ***Terrorism Shell***..............................................................................................74 ***Terrorism Shell***....................................................................................................................74 Egypt Intel = Best.........................................................................................................................76 Egypt – Counterterrorism..............................................................................................................77 Yemen Spillover............................................................................................................................78 Spillover -> Yemen = Terrorism....................................................................................................79 ***Instability Shell***.............................................................................................79 ***Instability Shell***....................................................................................................................79 Ext – Instability..............................................................................................................................81 ME Diplomacy – Bahrain & Yemen................................................................................................82 Yemen Counter Terrorism.............................................................................................................83 ***Bahrain Shell***.................................................................................................83 ***Bahrain Shell***........................................................................................................................83 Bahrain – 5th Fleet........................................................................................................................87 Bahrain Spillover -> Gulf Oil States...............................................................................................88 Egypt -> Bahrain...........................................................................................................................89 ***Israel Relations Shell***.....................................................................................89 ***Israel Relations Shell***............................................................................................................89 Israel Brink....................................................................................................................................92 A2: Brotherhood Not A Threat.......................................................................................................93 ***Muslim Brotherhood***......................................................................................93 ***Muslim Brotherhood***.............................................................................................................93 Muslim Brotherhood Pushing For Control .....................................................................................94 A2: Muslim Brotherhood Not Win Enough Seats............................................................................95 Egypt – Influence K2 Avoid Islam Rise...........................................................................................96 Brotherhood = Price Spikes...........................................................................................................98 Brotherhood = Econ Collapse........................................................................................................99 Brotherhood = ME Instability......................................................................................................100 Muslim Brother Hood Pushing For Power.....................................................................................101 Brotherhood = No MEPP..............................................................................................................102 Transition K2 Check Muslim Brotherhood....................................................................................103 A2: Muslim Brotherhood Not Threat............................................................................................104 ***Foreign Aid***.................................................................................................104 ***Foreign Aid***.........................................................................................................................104 Congress Cut Aid.........................................................................................................................105 Aid: Peaceful Transition K2 Prevent Cut......................................................................................106 Aid K2 Leverage..........................................................................................................................107 Aid K2 Arms Sales.......................................................................................................................108 Aid Cut Quickly............................................................................................................................109 Egypt – A2: No Aid Cut – Budget.................................................................................................110 Egypt – Aid On Table...................................................................................................................111

Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 3/148 Thursday File ***Iran***............................................................................................................111 ***Iran***....................................................................................................................................111 Diplomacy = Iran Transition........................................................................................................112 ***** Affirmative Answers*****..............................................................................113 ***** Affirmative Answers*****...................................................................................................113 ***2AC F/L***..............................................................................................................................114 ***Uniqueness Ans.***..........................................................................................117 ***Uniqueness Ans.***................................................................................................................117 Aff – Egypt – N/U: Dip Cap Low....................................................................................................118 ***Link Level***...................................................................................................118 ***Link Level***...........................................................................................................................118 Iraq Aff – Link Turn......................................................................................................................119 Afghanistan Aff – Link Turn ........................................................................................................120 Iraq Aff – Link Turn......................................................................................................................122 Japan Aff – Link Turn...................................................................................................................123 Link – Link Turn – South Korea K Aff............................................................................................124 ***Internal Answers***.........................................................................................124 ***Internal Answers***................................................................................................................124 Aff – Egypt: No Influence.............................................................................................................125 Aff – Egypt: Aid =/= Influence.....................................................................................................126 Aff – Egypt – No Influence...........................................................................................................127 Aff – Egypt – No Influence: Military..............................................................................................129 ***Impact Ans.***.................................................................................................129 ***Impact Ans.***........................................................................................................................129 ***A2: Counterterrorism***...................................................................................129 ***A2: Counterterrorism***.........................................................................................................129 A2: Counterterrorism Impacts.....................................................................................................130 ***A2: Spillover/Instability***................................................................................130 ***A2: Spillover/Instability***......................................................................................................130 Aff – No Egypt Spillover...............................................................................................................131 ***A2: Iran Reform***...........................................................................................132 ***A2: Iran Reform***..................................................................................................................132 Aff – No Iran Reform....................................................................................................................133 ***A2: Muslim Brotherhood Bad***........................................................................134 ***A2: Muslim Brotherhood Bad***.............................................................................................134 Aff – Egypt – No I/L: Muslim Brotherhood....................................................................................135 Aff – Egypt – Brotherhood Won’t Run..........................................................................................136 Aff – Egypt – A2: Muslim Brotherhood Bad..................................................................................137 Aff – Egypt – A2: Muslim Brotherhood Takeover..........................................................................139 ***A2: Suez Canal***............................................................................................140 ***A2: Suez Canal***...................................................................................................................140 Aff – Egypt – US Will Keep Suez Canal Open...............................................................................141 Aff – Egypt – A2: Oil Cut-Off.........................................................................................................142 A2: Suez Canal Shut Down = No Impact.....................................................................................143

...145 ***A2: Israel***............................................147 .................................. Change...................................................................145 ***Offense***.143 Aff – Egypt – No Aid Cuts...........................................................................................................................................Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X..............................................145 ***Offense***...........................................144 Aff – Egypt Policy -> Israel Inev...........................................................................143 ***A2: Aid Cuts***................................................................................................................146 Aff – Withdraw = More Democratic Reforms...................................................145 ***A2: Israel***.................................145 Aff – Egypt – Turn: Peace Proces 4/148 Thursday File ***A2: Aid Cuts***.......................................................................................................................................

B. and Impacts. All of the Uniqueness evidence and Internals take into account the fact that Mubarak has left power and is only talking in terms of US diplomatic response to the transition to elections. Nothing in the Status Quo or Affirmative can top the timeframe of the Thursday File ***Notes*** Why you should choose to run Egypt. All of these impacts feed from one source. You are not limited to Egypt after the 1NC. All three happen very quickly. Awesome Timeframes. US diplomatic response in the Middle East as a result of the Egypt Crisis. Internal Link. Impact Scenarios: All of your favorites are right there at your finger-tips from the general Econ impacts from Oil Price Shocks to hyper-specific scenarios about U. this argument puts you there. D. Sometimes it is just good to be on the side of truth in the world.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 5/148 Cross-X. C. Carriers in the Gulf.S. . you can branch out because the US is forced to deal with all of the Middle East turmoil at once as a result of Egypt allowing you to diversify and magnify your impacts. A. The internal link evidence about our focus on Egypt is fantastic right now.

S. (Insert Specific Link or read this generic evidence) Decreasing military deployments kills diplomatic influence. is headed to Israel on a scheduled visit. U. Current efforts will succeed. on Saturday. is already familiar with the players of the council. we can have a relationship and deal with that person. is the first high-level contact between the two governments since President Hosni Mubarak resigned. The ability of the United States to reassure . CNN – 2/12 (Elise Labott and Barbara Starr. B. "They will have to clarify who is now the head of the government. Field Marshal Mohammed Hussein Tantawi. While the U. 6-1. Adm. And you can imagine." one senior State Department official said. U. Recently. Gates spoke with Egypt's defense minister. and Egyptian officials said they expected the two sides to resume broader and more regular consultations this weekend. Ambassador to Egypt Margaret Scobey has had some contact with the foreign ministry. These developments are anything but reassuring. spokesman Geoff Morrell said.S.S. A big unanswered question is the future of Vice President Omar Suleiman. Holmes. VP for Foreign and Defense Policy Studies and Director of the David Institute for International Studies at the Heritage Foundation.cnn. the official said. they don't want to sit down with an American right now when they've got their whole world kind of collapsing on them as we speak.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss %2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS%3A+Politics%29) CJC The Obama administration launched into diplomatic outreach throughout the Middle East Saturday. Diplomacy between the United States and Egypt been effectively cut off. Burns. “U. http://www." He spoke anonymously Washington (CNN) -due to the sensitivity of the ongoing diplomacy. said a Republican congressman familiar with the administration's efforts. seeks diplomatic clarity in Mideast”. the No. Michael Mullen. February 12. Diplomacy is tentative requiring focused and persistent efforts to maintain diplomatic contact. senior officials said. 3 official at the State Department. The discussion. Clinton also is dispatching Under Secretary William Burns to Jordan to discuss "the historic events in Egypt as well as a range of other regional and bilateral issues. it is still unclear who is handling diplomatic issues.S. State Department officials acknowledged it has been hard to reach members of the new Egyptian government during the last 48 hours.pdf] MGM The consequences of hard-power atrophy will be a direct deterioration of America’s diplomatic clout. military primacy and the implications that this decline would have for Australian security and stability in the Asia–Pacific. Gates' sixth phone conversation with the Egyptian Defense Minister since the situation in Egypt began. officials said.d.S. 2011.mubarak/index. even as it tries to determine the composition of the Egyptian military council and the line of authority in the future Egyptian government. where America’s ability to hedge against the growing ambitions of a rising China is being called into question by some of our key Asian allies. "It's been very difficult to get information through normal diplomatic channels given the rapid changes. CNN "We have to figure out the pecking order. Top State Department officials are contacting every Arab foreign minister.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 6/148 Cross-X. "Whomever the Egyptians chose." But the official added. The congressman briefed reporters Friday afternoon on the condition they not use his name. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. and will visit Jordan as well. previously served as an ambassador to Jordan. http://s3." the congressman said. US diplomacy has been launched throughout the Middle East to deal with the transition of power to the military and future transition to democracy." a State Department statement said. 2009 [Kim.. and Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Mullen had some contact with their military counterparts. “Sustaining American Leadership with Military Power”. This is already on display in the western Pacific Ocean. and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is expected to call leaders in the region this Thursday File ***1NC Shell*** A.amazonaws. Ph. Australia released a defense White Paper that is concerned primarily with the potential decline of U.

"The Muslim Brotherhood don't like music or dancing. former deputy director of the State Department's Near East & South Asia Intelligence Office. As countries must watch over more and more issues arising in the international policy arena. Montana. it is critically important that the United States focus its diplomatic efforts on issues of paramount importance to the nation. said Wael Nawara. under Mubarak. are wooing supporters." Egyptians of all political persuasions celebrated the departure of Mubarak. 427) CJC Foreign policy is a bag of goods that includes issues from free trade to arms trading to human rights. Nour talked as his guests sat on gilded armchairs. Quick elections would result in a radical Egypt. Diplomatic capital is finite – each new issue trades off with existing issues Anderson & Grewell – 01 (Terry L. Each new issue in the bag weighs it down. are looking forward to running candidates openly. Reporter at USA TODAY. supporting our allies. Traditionally. monarchs and sheiks have presided over restive populations from which militancy and terrorism have been exported for years. who was forced out of the presidential palace Friday by the military and was staying at the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheik." D. 82. As Schaefer writes. Laying the groundwork for elections The Muslim Brotherhood was founded in Egypt in 1928 ." said Wayne White. Only by building a full-spectrum military force can America reassure its many friends and allies and count on their future support. coerce belligerent states. Stanford University. sipped sparkling fruit juices and dined on baked shrimp. C. deter competitors. http://www. “Ideology shadows fight to rule the new Egypt”. 2001 2 Chi. . such as the sale of ballistic missiles or border conflicts between nations. Dorell – 2/14 (Oren Dorell. secretary general of Nour's liberal party. Many in the West are hopeful that a democratic Egypt. Only by retaining a “big stick” can the United States succeed in advancing its diplomatic priorities. and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. Reuel Marc Gerecht.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. Int'l L. Increased environmental regulations could cause countries to lessen their focus on international threats of violence. Anderson is executive director of Political Economy Research Center ("PERC")The Center for Free Market Environmentalism. Others say democracy in Egypt could help radicals gain power. will herald a new age in a troubled region where Arab despots. lessening the focus on other issues and even creating conflicts between the most populous nation in the Middle East with a population of about 82 million. J. Parties that largely were banned by Mubarak. securing vital resources.htm) CJC Leaders of political parties that dominated the protest movement disagree. these priorities have been opposing hostile domination of key geographic regions. In the upper-class neighborhood of Zamalek. US influence over the Egyptian military is critical to ensure there is enough time for liberal political groups to organize to prevent a takeover by the Muslim Brotherhood in elections. Bozeman. had been rigged for years. it rests on the foundation of a powerful military. members of Egypt's liberal opposition gathered Saturday night at the penthouse apartment of former presidential candidate Ayman Nour. . according to Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq. Egyptians want a government that adheres to the universal declaration of human rights agreed to by the United Nations. "The shorter the time before new elections. the better the chance for the already well-organized Brotherhood to maximize its gains. Fall. and defeat enemies does not rest on the strength of our political leaders’ commitment to diplomacy. where a man danced with a gyrating woman wearing a hijab. they will stretch the resources necessary to deal with traditional international issues. fish and stuffed crab under a clear night sky beside the roof-top swimming pool. Al Ghad. J. 2/14/2011. who spent years in jail for challenging Mubarak's repressive regime. "Egyptians are very mellow." Nawara said. has argued that the United States should welcome the upheaval as a chance for the Arab world to modernize and allow moderate forces to gain the upper 7/148 Thursday File friends.usatoday. Liberals and Islamists have announced that they intend to seek power through elections that. Bishop Grewell is a research associate with PERC. and ensuring access to foreign economies. senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. People talked about a new dawn for Egypt and what it took to get to this point. "Because diplomatic currency is finite . Politicians such as Nour. such as the Muslim Brotherhood. surrounded by clapping onlookers. gesturing to a crowd listening to blaring music outside Al Ghad's downtown office.

Ayman Al-Zawahiri.” It was a chilling peek at what might happen once the dust settles from these popular protests sweeping Egypt. and all out war. businesses and ordinary Egyptians say has made daily life here difficult. radical enemy. It cuts through 118 miles of Egyptian countryside. which also traverses Egypt. an Egyptian and former member of the Brotherhood. The shock waves will be massive. The Suez Canal is one of the engineering marvels of the modern world. Hilliker – 2/2 (Joel Hilliker Columnist. He also said Egyptians should “be prepared for war against Israel. the U. but the Brotherhood wants investment strategies to abide by Islamic law. is a result of Mubarak's repression of liberals.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. Nawara says sweeping out the corrupt members of the regime is a first step toward encouraging foreign investment in Egypt that will lead to jobs. That amounts to 2. he said. surrounded in her office by wooden furnishings and framed oil paintings that hark to the early 20th century. It will embolden extremists like nothing since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. when Cairo was home to Jewish and Christian refugees from Europe. but not a cause for fearful reaction.S. The Brotherhood's Abdel Fattah says the group wants Egypt's army to quickly pave the way for civilian rule. On Monday. http://thetrumpet. Its 8/148 Thursday File as a strict Islamic alternative to Western influences. It was the first time oil hit triple digits since the record spike to $147 two years investors were spooked at even the thought of a disruption in energy production and shipping. Initially completed over 140 years ago—after 1." E. the Muslim Brotherhood will likely end up in power—which means the Middle East’s most populous and influential Arab country is about to lurch from relatively stable. and place formidable levers of power in their hands. A leading Muslim Brotherhood member said the Suez Canal should be immediately shut down. both want to crack down on corruption and a culture of bribery that shopkeepers. On Sunday the Brotherhood got half of what it wanted. connecting the Red Sea with the Mediterranean. Muhammad Ghannem made the provocative statement to an Arabic-language Iranian news network. "You counter (the Brotherhood) by allowing new parties to form without any restriction.6537. she predicted. and some of their goals are similar to those that the Brotherhood supports. Egypt's Armed Forces Supreme Council.0) CJC Almost immediately after angry Egyptians took to the streets last week. war with Israel. Though Egypt exports none itself. This will revolutionize the landscape in the most combustible part of the world." Makram-Ebeid said. Of particular concern is oil. But the youth can mobilize more. The Brotherhood is "a cause for concern. The liberal parties and youth groups that kept the protests going for 20 days have a platform. Nawara says Egypt's military — which has long had close ties to the U. "They can mobilize the street. Allowing the Muslim Brotherhood to gain control of Egypt would result in a closure of the Suez Canal. Control over the Suez Canal is definitely one of those levers. Mona Makram-Ebeid. For example.5 million laborers moved more than 1. It spawned a radical cell that assassinated Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in 1981.0. “Will the Muslim Brotherhood Close the Suez Canal?”.5 billion in aid to Egypt each year — to use its influence to ensure Egyptian officers continue reforms. who were not allowed to organize while the Brotherhood was able to do so in mosques and through its teachers and charities. It inspired al-Qaeda founder Osama Bin Laden and his deputy. which is ruling the nation for now. oil price shocks. as well as changes to the constitution that would lay the groundwork for elections soon." Makram-Ebeid said. military — should remain in charge of Egypt until a civilian government is running smoothly. thus linking Europe with East Africa and Asia.5 percent of global oil production. Energy Department still classifies it as one of the few World Oil Transit Chokepoints. A sharia-based state would be "totally refused" if put to a referendum in Egypt. February 2. About two thirds of that energy is traveling north toward Europe. announced that it had dissolved Mubarak's handpicked parliament and suspended the constitution. It’s a prime example of why Europe is watching events in Egypt so intently. Clearly. moderate ally to volatile. we got a glimpse at one important reason why. Every day. which had been packed with provisions to prevent free elections and opposition parties. 3 million barrels of oil and fuel products pass through the canal and the Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline. Western optimism notwithstanding.2 billion cubic feet of soil with picks and shovels—to this day it remains a conduit for roughly 8 percent of global seaborne trade. oil jumped to over $100 a barrel. The liberal parties say they also want the United States — which sends about $1. 2011. Middle East Instability. It accounts for 5 to . collapsing European Economies. a Coptic Christian and former member of the Egyptian parliament.S. plans to push for a greatly expanded student exchange program with the West so young Egyptians can learn how to development the economy.

the United States broke from its British ally and came out firmly against the action. Longtime Trumpet readers are well familiar with the end-time prophecy in Daniel 11—set to be fulfilled soon—of a “push” by an Iranian-led. though. Colonel Gamal Nasser had taken part in a coup against the Egyptian monarchy in 1952 and then overthrown the president two years later. it violently overthrows Egypt in the process (“and the land of Egypt shall not escape. heating oil and other distillates refined in the Middle East and shipped via the canal and pipeline” (emphasis mine). a likelihood Barclays Capital warned of this week. This time. and European supply—and global prices—would be “affected tremendously. European oil prices have soared—even higher than those in America. in a purposeful display of Arab strength. would be a surging. told the Wall Street Journal. It was a massive defeat for Britain in particular. which relies heavily on jet fuel."(41) and Ezar Weissman. the players would be somewhat different. once unthinkable except as a last resort. Islamist Middle Eastern power (“the king of the south”) of a German-led European empire (“the king of the north”). when a unified Europe wipes out Iran. is the prospect of a radical.” he wrote in the Trumpet’s December 1994 edition. a ceasefire was imposed. and unimaginably ferocious in securing the energy and other resources it needs to fuel itself. a full four fifths of Western Europe’s oil was passing through it. spy secrets. marking its unmistakable loss of status as a great power—and the fulfillment of a biblical prophecy that it would lose control of its sea gates. a nuclear escalation. MIDDLE EAST WAR WILL PRODUCE GLOBAL NUCLEAR CONFLAGRATION.htm Meanwhile. The European empire described in biblical prophecy—and presently coalescing. Our editor in chief has speculated about the likelihood of oil factoring into this provocation: Iran could well gain control over supplies to such an extent as to be able to drive prices to uncomfortable highs. Oil tankers transporting Middle East oil westward would have to travel the extra 6. http://wagingpeace. Steinbach.” Dalton Garis. said Monday. extremely oil-dependent times. Since that event.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. an associate professor at an Abu Dhabi energy-research center. current conditions resound with echoes of that history. or should any Arab nation fire missiles against Israel. he seized control of the Suez Canal.” Remember. delaying delivery times and markedly increasing costs. The prospect of a Muslim Brotherhood government gaining control over this asset—punctuated by the explicit call for its closure by a prominent member—makes it easy to imagine a militant Egyptian government again using the canal to provoke a European power. One could be forgiven for thinking that Ghannem’s call to close the canal was calculated to panic Europeans.. would now be a strong probability. The canal was the West’s most prominent asset in the Middle East: At the time.” Daniel 11:42 tells us). It is widely reported that the principal purpose of even the threat of nuclear war.) Israeli nukes aimed at the Russian heartland seriously complicate disarmament and arms control negotiations .com 9/148 Thursday File 7 percent of Europe’s oil consumption. Disrupt these shipments. as a result of trade in the Mediterranean and therefore with Europe. The United Nations. beholden to Third World opinion. Already this past week. however. the existence of an arsenal of mass destruction in such an unstable region in turn has serious implications for future arms control and disarmament negotiations. rather than a fading Britain. the links between Iran and Egypt will be strong and deep by that point—so much so that Europe will feel compelled to eliminate them both in a stroke. (43) (Since launching its own satellite in 1988. Britain and Israel responded to Nasser’s provocation by combining forces to invade.S. These differences would result in a far different outcome than the war in 1956. it actually tried to assassinate Nasser). the Suez Canal was once before at the heart of a war. In fact. " Jonathan Pollard's spying for Israel was to furnish satellite images of Soviet targets and other super sensitive data relating to U. and Should war break out in the Middle East again. Europe has significantly reduced its dependence on Suez. F. It is important to note that."(42) Russia and before it the Soviet Union has long been a major(if not the major) target of Israeli nukes. also dissented. Investors are concerned that Egypt’s instability makes ships passing through the canal more susceptible to attack. Worse.” Italy’s foreign minister. anti-West government taking over Cairo and shutting the canal down altogether. in Daniel’s prophecy. And on the other. Franco Frattini. in these economically strained. On one side would be the Muslim Brotherhood. Clearly. 2002. as the Iraqis did. the immediate impact of any interruption would be felt primarily in Europe..S. Nevertheless.. In July 1956. which it is in our interest to avoid at all costs. In the end. Israel's current President said "The nuclear issue is gaining momentum(and the) next war will not be /0203/0331steinbachisraeli. The New York Times reported on the same possibility: “While [oil] prices are set globally. unified Europe.000 miles around Africa. Seymour Hersh warns. “People talking about the closure of the Suez Canal are talking about a collapse of the state. and control of the vital Suez Canal was yielded up to Egypt. France. even amid financial troubles—is a voracious economic power. nuclear targeting strategy. Israel no longer needs U. the Suez Canal remains very significant strategically. That’s the last thing a continent mired in economic problems wants. an organization sure to prove even more aggressive than Nasser was (at one time. In what has proven to be a terrible blunder. “This in turn could cause Europe to quickly unite into the most powerful economic bloc in the world. And. On one side was an Egyptian leader with a vision of militant pan-Arabism that put him at odds with European colonial powers. “This is one of the reasons why Egypt’s stability is fundamental for the economy too. On the other side were the canal’s European owners.

com Thursday File and. if the familar pattern(Israel refining its weapons of mass destruction with U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 10/148 Cross-X. at the very least.for whatever reason. complicity) is not reversed soon. ".the deepening Middle East conflict could trigger a world conflagration. In the words of Mark Gaffney." *****Uniqueness***** . and dramatically lowers the threshold for their actual use.. if not for all out nuclear war.S.. the unilateral possession of nuclear weapons by Israel is enormously destabilizing.

Even as she managed a reset with Russia. February 16.sweep/index. That narrative is beginning to fade. which has massive undeveloped fields of petroleum and natural gas.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 11/148 Cross-X. allies in Europe. no country is too small to partner with the United States.S.html?iref=allsearch) CJC For Clinton. either because we were too unilateral or we weren't dealing with what we needed to deal Thursday File UQ Ext – A2: Dip Cap Low Clinton efforts have restored credibility to American diplomacy. “Can Clinton remake U. and deepened relationships with traditional U. "These capital investments helped us deal with what was the biggest problem that we came in facing -.S.cnn. she also traveled to the tiny Pacific island of Papua New Guinea. "That our credibility and leadership were shot. 2011. http://www. expanded ties with China." said Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg. CNN Senior State Department" . diplomacy?”. Labott – 2/16 (Elise Labott.the idea that there was an American decline.

“ Doha.” said Jon Alterman of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.” US officials familiar with the US-sponsored Egyptian military say Tantawi. has long seemed resistant to change. going. “This is just the end of the beginning. Striking the even-handed note the military has maintained throughout the crisis. over how far the military under Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi. the higher military council said it would take measures for an interim phase and hoped to realise people’s hopes. In a statement. 2011. Qatar. http://www.asp? cu_no=2&item_no=415614&version=1&template_id=57&parent_id=56) CJC There was a note of caution in the background. GONE”.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 12/148 Cross-X. it praised Mubarak for resigning “in the interests of the nation” and the “martyrs” who died protesting. He has been defence minister for more than 20 years with a past rooted firmly in the old guard’s ruling elite. it’s moved into martial law and where it goes is now subject to debate. are ready to permit a democracy -. however. “Egypt isn’t moving toward democracy. Gulf Times – 2/11 (Daily Newspaper published by Gulf Publishing & Printing Co. Thursday File UQ Ext – A2: Military Control = N/U Mubarak step down just beings a new round of diplomacy with the military to ensure the transition.especially since the hitherto banned Islamist Muslim Brotherhood is one of the best organised forces. Mubarak’s veteran defence minister. 11 February. .

com/news/politics/la-pn-news-conference-obama-20110216. no champagne toasts on the Truman Balcony like the one Obama hosted after Congress passed his healthcare overhaul last Thursday File UQ Ext – Focused Diplomacy Egypt still requires US diplomacy and regionally an increased role currently to deal with rising wave of protests to reassure allies. faces critical test of influence on Egypt”. but so far the country is sending "the right signals. "Each country is different.story?track=rss) CJC diplomats also acknowledge that events could still easily spin out of control given Egypt's lack of experience with democracy.3805635. "Obviously. http://www.latimes." US must continue to keep the pressure on the Egyptian military to ensure a smooth transition to elections. and say there are clear limits to Washington's influence on key players in Cairo.' " Obama also argued that change was an ongoing process. February 11." he said.0. "Real change in these societies is not going to happen because of terrorism. there is still a lot of work to be done in Egypt itself. "We are obviously concerned about stability. February 15. LA Times – 2/15 (Michael A." There were no celebrations at the White House. He drew a contrast between the demonstrations in Egypt and those in Iran. He would be watching. A White House aide said: "This is hardly over." Obama said Egypt is going to require help in developing democratic institutions. 2011. 2011. The administration has been busy making calls to senior Egyptian officers." but "there are certain universal principles we adhere it will happen because people come together. "We have sent a strong message to allies in the region.story? page=2&utm_medium=feed&track=rss&utm_campaign=Feed%3A%20latimes%2Fnews %2Fpolitics%20%28L. we don't believe in coercion.S. for a "transition that is credible in the eyes of the Egyptian people. “Obama praises Egypt. Los Angeles Times." Obama said in the wake of the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak and the takeover of government by the army. "The world is changing. February 13.'' It was once more. LA Times Staff Writers. each country has its own traditions. 'Let us look at Egypt's example as opposed to Iran's. which have been stifled by the government." Noting that a wave of protests has spread across the region.0.story? track=rss) CJC The question-and-answer session was Obama's first solo press conference since late December and gave reporters a chance to question the president on economic issues and to more fully probe the president's views on the situation in Egypt and other prodemocracy movements throughout the Arab world." the president said.latimes.5580994." Obama said. .S. "What we have seen so far is positive.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 13/148 LA Times – 2/11 (David S.latimes. talks budget at news conference”.5736229. "This opens the door for them to begin a full dialogue. Los Angeles Times Reporters.A." he said. http://www. Obama posed a plan for United States policy. trying to keep the pressure on. 2011. http://www. LA Times – 2/13 (Peter Nicholas. Cloud and Paul Richter. he warned them. Memoli and Michael Muskal. But State U. "America can't dictate. lauding Egyptian demonstrators who peacefully "bent the arc of history toward justice included a pointed message for the military leaders who now were in charge.%20Times%20-%20Politics%29&utm_source=feedburner) CJC Obama at his most eloquent." Obama said people should have a right to express their opinions in public. “U." and the issue is to "get ahead of change. “Obama's strategy was to pressure Mubarak without intruding”. we don't believe in violence. A senior administration official suggested Friday that the opposition should be satisfied with Mubarak's departure and other concessions.0." But he also Diplomats know the situation is volatile and could easily spin out of control if they lack focus of their influence in Egypt.

is not without leverage. commending the army for not firing upon the vast crowds protesting Mubarak's continued rule.5 billion in aid every year. It provides Egypt with $1. lifting the emergency law. his administration was adjusting to the loss of a bedrock ally in a volatile region. Washington director for Human Rights Watch. Yet the U. and preserving that flow — as well as the Egyptian military's longstanding ties with the Pentagon — is likely to be a major goal for the country's new leaders. Obama appeared to reach out to the military in his White House address. said that the Obama administration was already reaching out to other Middle Eastern allies to warn that they should respond to calls for reform to avoid the same sort of upheaval seen in Egypt. Obama made it clear that the U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. Martin Luther King Jr. Tom Malinowski. In a seven-minute address from the White House. requiring Egyptians to now build a democracy almost from scratch. President Obama moved quickly within hours of Mubarak's departure to try to influence the Egypt that will follow. requiring time to develop and nurture institutions that will give the country a stable and inclusive political process." "That means protecting the rights of Egypt's citizens. Los Angeles Times Reporters. the Berlin Wall's crumbling. LA Times – 2/11 (David S. Now it must deal with another daunting task: coaxing the country's new military rulers to deliver genuine democratic reforms they have resisted for decades.S." Obama said.'s fight for racial equality in the United States.S. Mubarak's departure threatens to end 30 years of certainty in which American administrations could count on Egypt maintaining its 1979 peace treaty with Israel. But even as Obama hailed the triumph of democracy in the Cairo streets. revising the constitution and other laws to make this change irreversible. and laying out a clear path to elections that are fair and free.3805635.story?track=rss) CJC The Obama administration got what it said it wanted when Hosni Mubarak surrendered power. “U. 25 and some of the epochal political movements of the 20th century: Gandhi's nonviolent struggle for India's independence. The task is difficult because Mubarak brutally suppressed any party that threatened his stranglehold on power. After days of being buffeted by events. US is using the full force and speed of its diplomacy to handle the transition in Egypt. http://www.0. February 14/148 Thursday File Department officials warned that political reform will be a "medium term" undertaking. as well as cooperating on counter-terrorism efforts. faces critical test of influence on Egypt”. Cloud and Paul Richter. warning they would "have to ensure a transition that is credible in the eyes of the Egyptian people.latimes. He drew a link between the rebellion that began Jan. But he reserved most of his praise for the protesters. expects the Egyptian generals to dismantle the machinery of a repressive state. .

who can speak authoritatively at a time of rapid staff turnover in the West Wing. “And she’s one of the only people who could step in. It requires “all hands on deck” to manage the situation. That’s because the administration has never faced a foreign crisis of this magnitude that requires “all hands on deck. February 2.” says Daniel Kurtzer who served as ambassador to Egypt under Bill Clinton and as President George W. She knows all of these players very well. http://www. who entered Foggy Bottom without the policy agenda of many of her predecessors.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 15/148 Thursday File Diplomacy Focus Key Clinton and her diplomacy team are critical to a successful transition. has turned to Clinton in the past for advice and to serve as the public face for the administration’s policies. known for relying on a tight circle of foreign policy advisers based in the West Wing and Vice President Joe Biden’s office. Thrush – 2/2 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico. “Hillary Clinton plays key role in dance with Hosni Mubarak”. “You need someone out there who understands the complexity of this CJC Obama. “She’s the obvious choice to adopt this role.” . But it’s also because the pragmatic Clinton is “one of the few remaining grown-ups.” in the words of one former State Department higher-up. has never occupied such a central role in such an unpredictable situation. and that’s critical at a time when the administration is presented with so few good alternatives.politico. 2011. But Clinton.” according to a senior administration official.” adds Kurtzer. Bush’s ambassador to Israel.

Washington columnist for the Los Angeles Times. after President Hosni Mubarak ceded his powers to it Feb. Military diplomacy with Egypt is critical to ensuring a stable transition.” said Daniel Kurtzer.” Kirby said. has proposed a three-man "presidential council" with only one of the seats reserved for the military. “Mission not yet accomplished”. http://www. 2011. But Egypt's next step is far from certain. “Public Praise. backing.3212459. reporter for Bloomberg News. Military if left to their own devices will not transition to democracy. The connections may be critical in the coming weeks and months as Egypt’s Supreme Council of the Armed Forces directs a process toward elections and democratic rule. Feb military’s commitment to that partnership.” he said. 2011. and Mullen headed to Jordan and Israel to meet with senior civilian and military leaders there yesterday and today. Mullen will attend a ceremony marking the end of Israeli Lieutenant General Gabi Ashkenazi’s term as chief of staff. it's unlikely the generals.html) CJC Pentagon officials are using public praise and private phone calls to help the Obama administration maintain connections and influence with the Egyptian military. energy and patience. said the official. 11. Lifting the state of emergency that’s been in effect for 30 years and given power to security forces would “send a powerful signal throughout the society. International Atomic Energy Agency who has offered himself as a transitional leader. “Public Praise. reporter for Bloomberg McManus – 2/13 (Doyle McManus.S. they’ve also sought to reassure allies and partners in the region of U. have made regular telephone calls to their counterparts. is going to have to show some results right away. 11 and promised a transition to democracy. including training of Egyptian officers at elite U.S. President Barack Obama’s top military adviser. Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Admiral Mike Mullen. http://www. officials met with Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak at the White House this week.latimes. February 13.S.S.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 16/148 Cross-X. has established relationships between the two forces and made pressure unnecessary so far. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. 2011. Feb 13. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”.com Thursday File UQ Ext – Military Diplomacy Dealing with the Egyptian crisis is requiring huge amounts of military diplomatic capital. according to Pentagon spokesmen Geoff Morrell and Navy Captain John Kirby. the former chief of the U. military official said on condition of anonymity. which took control of the country Feb. who provided few details on the substance of the an end to the repressive state of emergency and new elections.N. military schools. has reported on national and international issues from Washington for more than 25 years. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. Mohamed ElBaradei. will push for a swift transition to a full and free democracy. he will discuss security issues of mutual concern and reassure both these key partners of the U. The inevitable messiness of the ensuing process will present hard choices for the .0. The calls aren’t intended to pressure the Egyptian military to do anything specific. U. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gates and other top who wasn’t authorized to speak publicly on the calls. for its part.column) CJC Left to their own devices.S. a U.S. “In both countries.html) CJC “The military. http://www. though they've promised constitutional changes. He is also calling for the drafting of a wholly new constitution and elections within a year. Diplomacy will require continued aid. a former ambassador to Egypt who is a lecturer at Princeton University. As Gates and Mullen have tried to keep on top of events in Egypt. Decades of ties. Our success relies on our military diplomacy to reassure allies that we have their back.

http://www.S. "We stand ready to provide whatever assistance is necessary. the United States will help. including the programs that would help Egyptian democracy. has proposed eliminating foreign aid entirely. They didn't explain how to do that while reducing U. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. while not 17/148 Thursday File Obama administration too. The new Republican majority statement Friday. President Obama said last week that he hoped Egypt's democratization would be both "orderly and including for both Egypt and Israel. in the House has already proposed deep cuts in foreign aid. the first U. the Facebook insurgents in Tahrir Square or even the Muslim Brotherhood — won't be as strongly pro-U. Bush. “Public Praise. it also want to maintain Egypt's stability." he said. the leader of the Senate's new "tea party" caucus. Sen. Influence over the military is critical to ensure that transition is stable. "They must know that they will continue to have a friend in the United States of America.S.S. Taking advantage of that opening.S. aid — and thus U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.S. Others would cut Egypt but spare Israel." They administration is understandably concerned that Egypt's next political leaders — whether they turn out to be the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. Rand Paul (R-Ky. which leaders of both U.S." he said. Obama made a start on that process with his when he praised Egypt's military for its role as "caretaker to the state" but pointedly defined its mission now as guaranteeing a real transition.S. 2011." He must know that those two goals. will require money. director of national intelligence under President George W. The insurgencies in Egypt and Tunisia have presented the United States with an extraordinary opportunity: a chance to as late as Thursday. to add the democracy-friendly modifier "genuine. But after more than 30 years of support for the military governments of Mubarak and his predecessor. political parties have sought for decades." Obama said. it may prove difficult to convince Egypt's democrats that the United States was on their side all along. That's why the word U. "Nothing less than genuine democracy will carry the day. advise and aid countries that are moving toward democracy in the world's most dangerous region. Anwar Sadat. The administration wants more from Egypt than just democracy.S government will “play a role of holding the military’s feet to the fire” to ensure it makes democratic reforms. And. officials used most often over the last 18 days was "orderly. as Mubarak was. and its peace with Israel. energy and patience. popular in Tahrir Square.S. such as revising the constitution and enabling multiple political parties. its close military relationship with the U. leverage — at the same time. John on CNN’s “State of the Union” yesterday . It's a pity that such an opportunity has arrived when we seem to be short of all three. Feb 13.html) CJC Negroponte. a move that wouldn't make the U. are in tension. reporter for Bloomberg News. But that was a promise that may be difficult to keep. said that the U. he added. Some of those same House Republicans pressed the State Department last week to bar the Muslim Brotherhood from playing any role in a new Egyptian government." and why Obama felt it necessary.).

" Patrick . "Whatever the motivations for the Egyptian military's move against Mubarak – clearly they told him he had to go – U. told CTV News Channel that the Egyptian military finally pushed the president out.S. It forced them to push out Mubarak. C-TV News – 2/11 (CTV. influence played no small part. taxpayer basically funds the Egyptian military and has done so for many years. in part because of American CJC Basham. "The Thursday File UQ Ext – US Has Influence Over Military US has influence over the military. The Egyptian military certainly has good relations with the United States. director of the Washington-based Democracy Institute. http://winnipeg. but is very much aware that it is the United States that is paying the bill that affords them the prestige and the influence in Egyptian politics that they enjoy.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 18/148 News Staff-Canada. Feb." he said. 11 2011. “Obama pledges to help Egypt transition to democracy”.S.

2011. the months following a revolution can therefore be more dangerous than the revolution itself.slate. Disaster and dictatorship are not inevitable. The satisfaction one receives from Twitter is not the same satisfaction one receives from spending hours in a room with a group of people. the creation of citizens' CJC Coming down from the high of a crowd experience and returning to the humdrum ordinariness of an individual life can never be easy. not next month or next year but right now. not just to celebrate but to demand more: "We won't leave because we have to make sure this country is set on the right path. On Sunday and Monday. staring at the wall.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 19/148 Cross-X. especially if one has been part of a crowd for almost three weeks. A letdown is inevitable. the mob kept resurrecting itself in the years following 1789 (a tradition that continues into the present). In France. planning an election campaign. and the army even threatened to arrest those who refused to leave. The dissatisfaction with the February revolution of 1917 led to the Bolshevik coup d'etat in October of that year. the army should encourage the formation of political parties. http://www. the essence of crowd euphoria is the feeling that one is part of something greater than oneself." declared one protester. and then slumping down again in front of Facebook or Al Jazeera. Online activism is not a substitute for real activism. Her most recent book is Gulag: A History. By whatever means possible. the soldiers now ruling the country will have to do more than send everyone home. but if Egypt is to avoid either a coup d'etat or a return to mob rule. soldiers clashed with demonstrators who were reluctant to go home. Feb. It's not remotely surprising that demonstrators keep returning to Tahrir Square after Mubarak's resignation. Now the country's leaders must help channel all that enthusiasm into institutional change. Disappointment in the slow pace of post-revolutionary change cannot be avoided. Thursday File UQ Ext – Timeframe – Next Few Months Key Next few months are critical to ensure that Egypt does not collapse. Applebaum – 2/14 (Anne Applebaum is a Washington Post and Slate columnist. As Le Bon understood. . described as unemployed. “The Roar of the Crowd”. Historically. the building of neighborhood watch groups and clean-up brigades—anything to prevent those unemployed men in Tahrir Square from going home.

" because leaders reject democratic laws that run counter to Islamic texts — but Islamists are willing to use elections to gain power. In Iran.htm) CJC Pipes. with an implementation strategy and timetable. especially to Egypt's large lower class.democracy/) CJC The Obama administration has shown a consistent preference for inclusive agreements among all significant factions on basic election principles. Reporter at USA TODAY. February 16. sustain these agreements. Pipes said. *****Links***** .egypt. It has engaged in the hard work of quiet diplomacy to encourage and. Radicals will use elections to gain power. White said. Dorell – 2/14 (Oren Dorell. Stremlau – 2/16 (John Stremlau is vice president for peace programs at the nonprofit Carter Center. The group's grass-roots network is a source of power that liberals may have a hard time countering. Egypt's old Wafd and newer liberal and Daniel reform parties "may have a tough slog" reaching out. especially if not given enough time to organize. The Islamist movement is "inherently anti-democratic.usatoday. including regional organizations and the United Nations. while facilitating as many international partners as possible. 2/14/2011. 2011. “Two vital steps on path to democracy in Egypt”.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 20/148 Cross-X. Elections now mean they gain control because they are already well organized. editor of the Middle East Forum. they will foment a revolution along the lines of Iran's in 1979. the ruling Islamists' belief in God's sovereignty trumps political participation by the masses. more importantly. K2 Election Timing Continued focused diplomacy is critical to ensure credible elections. says if radical Islamists come to power. And it has welcomed the growing role of domestic and international nongovernmental organizations willing and able to support the process. “Ideology shadows fight to rule the new Egypt”. that is why timing is Thursday File UQ Ext – Dip. hospitals and aid programs for the poor. which has observed 82 elections in 34 to lend their support. http://www. The movement may already be the bestorganized opposition group because of a network of charities.

And down the road. regional involvement. marrying the fragile and reversible military gains with a political process that includes international diplomacy. “Can Clinton remake U. will not abandon important and longtime allies. particularly when it comes to foreign aid.sweep/index. and political reconciliation among the Taliban and other militant groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Their link turns do not assume the refocusing to the Egypt crisis. as a long list of foreign policy issues becomes the province of the State Department.S. It's a personal challenge that speaks to the dilemma she has faced since becoming secretary of state. This link is a timing issue. 2011. when the remainder of U. can nurture and facilitate a military-led transition. The timing of withdraw would undermine near term focus on Egypt. It will largely fall to Clinton to advance the strategy that she and Holbrooke envisioned. That will take time as well as diplomatic dexterity. CNN Senior State Department Producer. for Clinton.html?iref=allsearch) CJC If the first six weeks of 2011 are any indicator. While Mubarak has left the political scene." talking to European and Arab allies about how the U. with Karzai an unreliable partner.S. spread like wildfire to Cairo and which are now permeating throughout the region -. Rolling up her sleeves Yet no issue will likely demand more of Clinton's time in the near future than the political upheaval in Egypt. but NO issue will currently take a back seat to our effort in Egypt in the near future." Mills said. February 16." . Labott – 2/16 (Elise Labott. interests and security in a region that is going through real transformation. diplomacy?”. Since Mubarak stepped down. the chapter on Egypt's march toward democracy is far from complete." But Clinton knows the push for democracy is fraught with risk. Progress in creating a credible Afghan government and sustainable economy has also been an uphill battle. which has quickly become the first major foreign policy crisis for the Obama administration. "She respects what the people had to do to go out in (Tahrir Square). and she would like to support the president in advancing American values. "She feels the overwhelming weight of it. And she must save the stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace talks from becoming a permanent casualty of recent events. In addition to moving forward with engaging North Korea in the coming months. yearnings which were ignited in Tunisia. director of policy planning and deputy chief of staff.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 21/148 involvement in Iraq. On one hand. In the coming weeks Clinton will have to defend her smart power efforts before Republicans in Congress intent on taking an ax to President Obama's budget.S. The long-term is irrelevant. economic and social reforms and respect for human rights that she pressed for in Thursday File A2: Link Turns: Timing – (A Must Read) Other issues will move forward diplomatically. She is mindful of regional stability and wants to reassure other Middle East governments that the U. she and the State Department will assume full responsibility for U. In fact. Clinton will be doing a lot more juggling.issues which remain close to her heart. "The secretary is going to roll up her sleeves.S. she wants to stay true to the themes of political.S. Clinton will also need to work closely with allies about increasing pressure on Iran over its nuclear program. "She sees this as one of the most significant strategic projects of the Obama presidency.cnn. it is really the beginning. when the impact is triggered in the short term." said Jake Sullivan. http://www. troops come home at the end of the year. Clinton is said to have been in a "war-room mentality.

http://www.Focus US Diplomats are at the breaking point and barely able to keep up with the current situations on their plates. ambassadors that the current crisis was part of a “tough road ahead” for U. And how quickly that ground can shift under our feet.” . diplomats.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 22/148 “There are too many forces at work. Thrush – 2/2 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico. she said.html) CJC As Obama kept close tabs on the deepening crisis. “Obama huddles with aides on Egypt”.” Clinton. include the possibility of instability in other countries. warned a gathering of U.S. 2011. who has become the administration’s public face during the crisis.S. more WikiLeaks revelations and pressure from Congress to cut the State Department’s budget.S. some of which we are only beginning to understand. “As we see. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned U. with what’s going on today. diplomats the pitched street battles erupting in Cairo and elsewhere have pushed the country into “uncharted territory. February 2.politico. recent events in Egypt and certainly in that broader region.” she added. (they) remind us all of how crucial it is to have top-notch leadership on the Thursday File 2NC Link Magnifier . The challenges. They need all of the focus they have to deal with the Egyptian crisis.

Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 23/148 Thursday File

2NC Link Magnifier – Perception
US credibility for diplomacy is hanging by a thread in the Middle East. Perception of US backing away again would crush any influence that we have. CBS News – 2/11 (Ken Millstone, Staff Reporter; “Diplomat: Egypt Dislikes Suleiman's "Slimy Background"; February 11, 2011; CJC Ambassador Edward Peck, a career diplomat who served in Egypt and Tunisia, said that Suleiman
in many ways takes an even harsher and more authoritarian view of power than Mubarak. "He's been involved in a number of things that the people of Egypt do not like," including being the CIA's point man for the rendition and torture of terror suspects in Egypt, Peck said. He said Suleiman has "kind of a slimy background." Mubarak ceded power not to Suleiman but to the Egyptian armed forces and it is not clear what Suleiman's eventual role will be, if any. Still, Suleiman is a former military and intelligence officer with close ties to the military power structure. He "is always going to be a little trickle of saliva" that could be slurped back up into power at any time, Peck said. With or without Suleiman, a transition to democracy is no certainty, Peck

"It just takes one or two generals to say, 'Hey I kind of like being in charge.' That's happened before." Peck suggested that the U.S. has strained its credibility with other Arab world leaders by its somewhat erratic response to the events in Egypt - seemingly shifting allegiance to whatever actor seemed to be in the lead. "We have a just a tattered thread in that part of the world of the respect and reliability that we used to think we enjoyed on a regular basis," Peck said.

Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 24/148 Thursday File

2NC Aid Link Magnifier
(_) Aid Package Link: A. And, Independently of influence over the Egyptian military, the US is negotiating an international aid package that would be critical to ensuring a smooth transition because the protests have gutted its economy. Richter – 2/14 (Paul Richter, Tribune Washington Bureau Reporter; “Obama administration seeks emergency financial package for Egypt”; Feb. 14, 2011; CJC Amid calls in Washington for sharp cuts in foreign aid, the Obama administration is seeking an emergency financial package for Egypt, fearing that further strains on its economy could thwart Cairo's fledgling reform effort almost before it begins. U.S. officials have been working international partners to seek pledges for a package, probably worth several hundred million dollars, as well as money to help build political parties and other democratic institutions, say U.S. and foreign diplomats. Public anxiety over Egypt's struggling economy, including high unemployment and rising prices, was one of the key drivers of an 18-day uprising that toppled former President Hosni Mubarak, who resigned on Friday. Now that Mubarak is gone, analysts say Egyptians may be overly optimistic in expecting rapid economic improvements. Michele Dunne, a Mideast specialist who has advised the Obama administration on Egypt in recent weeks, said the economy is "one of the greatest vulnerabilities for a country that's in a transition like this." The Egyptian finance ministry has estimated that the unrest cost the economy about $310 million a
WASHINGTON day, and some private analysts have estimated that investors have been withdrawing investment at a rate of about $1 billion a day. Annual economic growth of 5 percent was predicted for Egypt before the demonstrations; now the consensus is closer to 1 percent. Dunne, now with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said if Egyptians have unreasonable

expectations about economic opportunities and instead conditions worsen, "it could really sour relations between people" and the transitional government. U.S. officials, who have been consulting widely on Egypt in recent days, declined to discuss their aid goals in details, saying they are in the early stages of discussions. They said they expect international development banks may also play a part in the aid.

B. Economic aid package to Eygpt would give positive light to the US with the Egyptian population, undercutting Muslim Brotherhood influence and message they would use to gain control. Bryen – 2/11 (Shoshana Bryen is senior director for security policy at The Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs in Washington; “Egypt needs more U.S. aid, not less”; 2/11/11; CJC Two factors may force the Administration to reconsider the size and scope of the aid. First is the attitude of the Egyptian people toward the United States. Though there has been little overt antiAmericanism in the demonstrations, Egyptians are acutely aware that U.S. aid largely flows to the military — with little benefit to them. The Muslim Brotherhood, with its network of religious schools and social programs, has capitalized on the difference between U.S. military aid and religiously inspired social services. It is not surprising that a recent Pew survey shows Egyptians preferring Islamic
government to “those who would modernize the country,” by 59 to 27 percent, and attitudes toward Americans running nearly 4:1 negative. The demonstrations and looting during the protests have wreaked havoc on the

Egyptian economy and capital is expected to flow out as soon as the banks reopen. The answer to “how much” may be sent abroad no one knows, but estimates run into the hundreds of millions at a minimum. Emergency food and economic stabilization aid from America could help average Egyptians see the United States as a benefactor and remove one anti-American prop from the Muslim Brotherhood and from Iran. Second is what the Egyptian military has acquired over the years.

Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 25/148 Thursday File The U.S. permitted Egypt to buy systems that directly threaten Israel – Harpoon Block II anti-ship missiles, for example – with little opposition from Israel or its friends in Congress because of Mubarak’s commitment to the peace treaty. Should the Muslim Brotherhood take a commanding position in a multi-party interim government, an implacable enemy of both Israel and the United States will have at least some say in the use of those military assets. Elsewhere in
the region, Hezbollah never won a majority in any Lebanese election, but imposes its will on the Lebanese government by threat of force — and now has a say in the operation of the U.S.-supported Lebanese Armed Forces. In a similar situation,

Washington would have no choice but to suspend military aid and cooperation with Egypt — with the loss of benefits to the United States that implies.

" The aid discussions have come at a time when the administration has been reaching out to allies in the Middle East. including by working with international partners to provide financial support. and some analysts predict there will be bipartisan support for at least some increase in Egypt's aid. "I think they'll feel this cause is worth it. 14. most of it going to the Egyptian Thursday File Ext – Aid Link: A2 Aid Cuts Now Aid package will pass in the US despite calls for cuts in the Aid budget. perhaps through loans by the European Investment Bank. Yet the overthrow of Mubarak has been welcomed by Democrats and Republicans. a spokeswoman for Lady Catherine Ashton. http://www. Continued diplomacy is critical to building international support for the aid package. . Clinton said she hopes that as Congress considers "the national security and economic consequences of these cuts. R-Ohio. Maja Kocijancic. must promote stability in countries such as Egypt or "we will pay a higher price later in crises that are allowed to simmer and boil over into conflicts. President Barack Obama. it has bipartisan support. they will chart a different course. the European Union's foreign affairs chief. trying to work out a common position on how to encourage democratic change in Egypt." The U." Clinton said.bellinghamherald. Tribune Washington Bureau Reporter. said the EU is considering the possibility of aid. in a said the United States was committed to offering aid that was needed by Egypt "to pursue a credible and orderly transition to democracy. The Obama administration is trying to prevent Republicans from imposing steep cuts on foreign aid." said Stephen McInerney. who are already struggling with severe austerity executive director of the Project on Middle East Democracy.S.5 billion per year. on Monday and expressed her concern about proposed reductions for the State Department and aid programs. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton met with House Speaker John Boehner.html) CJC The U. 2011. an EU international finance arm. statement last weekend. Richter – 2/14 (Paul Richter.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 26/148 Cross-X. “Obama administration seeks emergency financial package for Egypt”. The push for more aid comes at a difficult time for the United States and many allies. currently gives Egypt about $1.S. Europe and elsewhere. Feb.

com Thursday File Ext – Aid Link: Econ Spark Instability Egypt economic issues continued would spark another wave of as employees protest poor wages and demand that bank leaders be prosecuted for alleged corruption. Meanwhile. Egypt's stock exchange again delayed its opening. . the official Egyptian state news agency. as labor strikes continued and school openings were delayed. WSJ 2/17 (Jay Solomon.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 27/148 Cross-X. Banks said they won't reopen until Sunday. The labor crisis has been the most formidable challenge for the country's new military leaders and threatens to pierce a fragile calm that has prevailed since political protests ended Friday after nearly three weeks. 2/17/11. Matt Bradley. http://india. according to MENA. pushing it to Monday. " Treasury Calls for Scrutiny of Egypt ".html) Egypt's new military rulers faced growing hurdles in their efforts to restore normalcy to the country. Strikes could add to mounting economic woes.

on average. http://www. 5]MGM political effect of presence is that it augments diplomatic influence. a link exists between reform in the PRC and the U. it rests on the foundation of a powerful military.and the rest of our allies . The ability of the United States to reassure friends. This is already on display in the western Pacific Ocean. Plans. military relationship (technology transfers and port visits) with that country.“The Importance of Hard Power”.S. Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of defense for Strategy. diplomatic words murmured whilst strolling serenely along "Obama Beach. of the withdrawal of forces is present. In what is becoming a signature trait of saying one thing and doing another. If our country allows its hard power to wane. 6-12. for] MGM The problem here is not merely an overconfidence in the process of "talking" and trying to achieve "mutual understanding" ." Only by building a full-spectrum military force can America reassure its many friends and allies and count on their future support. Similarly. That will require hard power. These are serious matters. For America to be an effective leader and arbiter of the international order. Holmes. It's this connection of hard to soft power that Mr. Recently. The next British leader . strategy. and Force Development AND **member of the Center for Naval Analyses assigned to III Marine Expeditionary Force. when need be." Decrease in US military presence directly trades-off with diplomatic influence. it must be willing to maintain a world-class military. though only indirectly related to if diplomacy were merely about communications and eliminating hurt feelings. no less than 4 percent of the nation's gross domestic product on defense.need to know they can count on the U. Unfortunately. coerce belligerent states. anywhere it has to. April. That requires resources: spending. Gates' vision for "rebalancing" the military are drastically disconnected from the broad range of strategic priorities that a superpower like the United States must influence and achieve. Mr. presence to deter a threat and the positive effects of assurance derived from deterrence can be used in diplomatic negotiations through linking the topic of negotiations to the continuation of that presence. not just soft. Chiu & Dworken. Rather. Military Presence in the Asian-Pacific Region”.S. Mr. Senior Executive Service and principal director.S.. explicit or implicit. 2009 [Kim. to intervene on their behalf any time." But since becoming president he has done little to demonstrate an actual commitment to forging a policy that combines America's military power with diplomatic strategies. The United States can succeed in advancing its priorities by diplomatic means only so long as it retains a "big stick. our leaders will lose crucial diplomatic clout.8 The third . deter competitors. Obama appears not to understand. where America's ability to hedge against the growing ambitions of a rising China is being called into question by some of our key Asian allies. Australia released a defense white paper concerned primarily with the potential decline of U. 1991 [Daniel and Jonathan. Office of the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Strategy. military primacy and its implications for Australian security and stability in the Asia-Pacific. it is about the interaction and sometimes clash of hardened interests and ideologies.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 28/148 Cross-X. VP for Foreign and Defense Policy Studies and Director of the David Institute for International Studies at the Heritage Foundation.d. and defeat enemies does not rest on the strength of our political leaders' commitment to diplomacy. when negotiating trade policy and burden-sharing with Japan. and you don't take them seriously by wishing away the necessity. Obama's next proposed defense budget and Secretary of defense Robert M. The threat. Obama has argued that America must "combine military power with strengthened diplomacy. Thursday File 2NC Links – Plan Kills Coercive Diplomacy Obama needs to strengthen the military – the perception of declining commitments kills our diplomatic influence.heritage.S. These developments are anything but reassuring. “The Political Effects of U. Center for Naval Analysis. as well as in talks on trade policy and political reform in the ROK. An ally's reliance on U. Ph.S. of using the hard power of force to settle things.

Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of defense for Strategy. 1991 [Daniel and Jonathan.S. and Force Development AND **member of the Center for Naval Analyses assigned to III Marine Expeditionary Force. Chiu & Dworken.S. Military Presence in the Asian-Pacific Region”. . “The Political Effects of Thursday File Pulling out when threats are high wrecks our influence. 23] MGM Note: This is a footnote explaining diplomatic presence and US military presence 8. Senior Executive Service and principal director. making the leverage in negotiations slim. When the perceived threats decline. Plans. April. at best. so does the value of U. Office of the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Strategy. Center for Naval Analysis. pg. presence. There is a severe limitation to this effect. strategy.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 29/148 Cross-X.

. For all the calculations of greater efficiency and utility that commend the idea of reconfiguring America’s global military footprint. indeed Thursday File Link – General Decreasing military deployments kills diplomatic influence. Mr. this massive exercise in managerial housekeeping by the secretary of defense cannot be viewed exclusively as one cabinet executive’s effort to make more productive use of the people.d.” Chapter 3: Politics and Diplomacy of the Global Defense Posture Review. 2006 [Lincoln.pdf) The consequences of hard-power atrophy will be a direct deterioration of America’s diplomatic clout. To think otherwise would be to overlook the belief. 6-1-2009. political in terms of its effect on the rest of the world. 2009 (Kim Holmes. Australia released a defense White Paper that is concerned primarily with the potential decline of U. Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. These are national commitments. Only by retaining a “big stick” can the United States succeed in advancing its diplomatic priorities. where America’s ability to hedge against the growing ambitions of a rising China is being called into question by some of our key Asian allies. approximately five thousand facilities spread all over the country and the world. A global posture realignment that involves moving large numbers of those sentries and their weapons inevitably begs the most urgent of security questions. deter competitors. Bloomfield previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (1992-93). Korea. Bloomfield. coerce belligerent states. this initiative is inescapably.A. it rests on the foundation of a powerful military. Holmes. Reducing military presence prompts State Department intervention – focuses diplomatic efforts on minimizing effects of the aff. http://s3.L. Ph. Former US Special Envoy for Man-Portable Air Defense Systems Threat Reduction. resident in allied populations in more than fifty countries by latest count. and Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs from 2001-2005. The ability of the United States to reassure friends. The Global Defense Posture Review (GDPR) is such an undertaking.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 30/148 Cross-X. He graduated from Harvard College and received a M. and Australia— to come to their defense in extremis. “Reposturing the Force: U. Thailand. These developments are anything but reassuring. solemnly made.S. Rarely to be found among these major tasks will be any large-scale updating. This is already on display in the western Pacific Ocean. Only by building a full-spectrum military force can America reassure its many friends and allies and count on their future support. and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs (1988-89) among other policy positions in the Defense Department dating to 1981. armed forces standing the watch in almost every latitude and time zone has calmed regional rivalries and dissuaded armed escalations for sixty years.usnwc. Recently. VP for Foreign and Defense Policy Studies and Director of the David Institute for International Studies at the Heritage Foundation.S.S. At the same time. and an annual budget now surpassing $400 the Rio Treaty.aspx] An Ambitious Concept When historians look back on the Defense Department’s biggest undertakings during its first six decades of existence. and the sight of U. and defeat enemies does not rest on the strength of our political leaders’ commitment to diplomacy. that America is committed—via the North Atlantic Treaty. or reconfiguration of an organizational empire that includes well over two million soldiers and http://www.D. streamlining. the Philippines.amazonaws. and funding allotted to his department. excites foreign . assets. the fielding of powerful and complex weapons systems. Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs (1991-92). they will of course cite the prosecution of wars both hot and cold. and bilateral security treaties with Japan. and the promulgation of defense and security strategies to prepare for and deter threats to the national interest. “Sustaining American Leadership with Military Power”. military primacy and the implications that this decline would have for Australian security and stability in the Asia–Pacific.

concerns in the State Department that some Department of Defense (DoD) officials. Within the U. Conceptually. forces outside Still. Such a concept would best allow future presidents to position viable military options to employ anywhere in response to a sudden danger on the shortest of notice. Big Decision: Getting to “Yes” What with the profound implications of a posture change for allied countries hosting U. and capabilities to fulfill those commitments.S. The plan requires significant diplomatic resources to reassure allies.S.S. never mind foreign policy bureaucrats.D. his determination to rethink. there were indeed some in the State Department who wanted nothing more than for the initiative to go away and who feared damage to alliances if it went forward. On the other hand. http://www. are no longer usefully measured by numbers of troops. In at least one country DoD doggedly sought to announce and implement a drawdown of military assets against that ally’s wishes and with an evident relish that required diplomatic damage control and led the president to withhold to himself the withdrawal decision. One could well imagine the Pentagon’s potential misgivings about placing this hugely ambitious venture at the mercy of other departments. forces and the state of America’s diplomatic relations with them. and therefore runs the risk. That Mr. whose reaction to any disturbance of the diplomatic status quo might be expected to be one of resistance to change. Former US Special Envoy for Man-Portable Air Defense Systems Threat Reduction. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. if not in monetary terms certainly in the ability of a finite force structure to deliver the maximum military benefit through the greater efficiencies and capabilities of the new global posture. The foreign press has focused on troops scheduled to be pulled back to U. Bloomfield previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (1992-93). An Ambitious Concept The idea that U. Bloomfield. bases or consolidated in other locales. policy bureaucracy as a whole. and it embodied major foreign policy equities. globally managed force posture would optimize the flow of combat power along 31/148 Thursday File anxieties in many quarters. and the allied governments themselves.A. “Reposturing the Force: U. . of perturbing the very stability that America’s global military presence is meant to ensure.S.S. Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century. indeed opposition. He graduated from Harvard College and received a M. an efficiently designed. their facilities. without overly taxing the system. might aggravate rather than defuse foreign anxieties were also not entirely misplaced. and officials need to be not simply told but persuaded that America’s commitments to them. even to discussing prospective force reductions with allied countries.L. Mr. and reposition the U.S.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.S. particularly in Asia. Over the long is noteworthy. would inevitably make their voices heard before the Department of Defense’s new scheme based on geographic convenience and logistical efficiency could supplant longstanding basing patterns in foreign localities. There remains a need for allies. Rumsfeld took on this monumental management task. 2006 [Lincoln. global defense posture could profit the nation’s security. such concerns were not limited to experienced regional specialists in the State Department. depending on how the matter is handled. certainly none of his predecessors seriously attempted it. military force units. The Department of State. European and Asian foreign-policy experts. even when the nature and location of the crisis had not been foreseen.” Chapter 3: Politics and Diplomacy of the Global Defense Posture Review. redesign. their equipment.aspx] a major change in defense doctrine and practice requires a significant public diplomacy effort if it is to be accepted abroad. and land routes from one region to the next. and their support structure should be physically positioned according to the logic of global geography is very appealing.usnwc. The concern was not imaginary. Of all of Donald Rumsfeld’s actions during his headline-filled second tenure as secretary of defense. That he did it during wartime is extraordinary. by their manner. a well-executed streamlining of the U. braving the predictable resistance of settled constituencies from one end of the globe to the other. air.S. and Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs from 2001-2005. military’s posture at home and abroad according to a rational design reflecting contemporary security conditions should stand as a positive mark in his legacy. and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs (1988-89) among other policy positions in the Defense Department dating to 1981. the decision to embark on a global realignment was the president’s to make. journalists. Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs (1991-92). directly to the point of engagement. to have a clear and compelling vision of how the new global defense posture—embracing U. Big Change. there were varying perceptions about whether the advertised merits of particular changes under the Global Defense Posture Review would indeed redound to the long-term security benefit of the United States.

who visited Canberra. “Reposturing the Force: U. comprehensive posture reviews on a bilateral basis. By mid2003. backed by respective interagency delegations. the White House released President George Bush’s statement announcing the new initiative. Bloomfield previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (1992-93). and Tokyo .A. Mr. High-level administration visitors to Asian capitals. Former US Special Envoy for Man-Portable Air Defense Systems Threat Reduction. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. and Singapore.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. understandably fearful of losing home-district bases under BRAC. Secretary Powell said he thought the briefing had misstated the facts about European bases being obsolete because of their relevance to World War II. following which these two officials. In March 2004 Under Secretary Feith led a delegation (including the author) that briefed this initiative in Beijing. which said in part: “Beginning today.” and consultations were to be integral to his decision process. which developed a final list of recommended domestic base closures during 2005. The secretary continued. Beijing.L. http://www.D.” The words were carefully chosen.S. Specific force posture changes would require presidential approval at a later stage. while the author made a side trip to Manila for the same purpose. deadpan. however. difficult project was not driven by exigencies of current military operations. worthy. split up and barnstormed a total of twelve European capitals. His point was effectively made—of course we needed to update and rationalize our force posture. Many in Congress. to ask “Why now?” and put it off for another day. the United States will intensify our consultations with the Congress and our friends. mobility. Empirical proof. allies. and partners overseas on our ongoing review of our overseas force posture. that in some locations— including German facilities under his command in the 1980s—the bases dated all the way back to the Franco-Prussian War. Other agencies offered their comments. among other advances. A few hearts stopped. From there the issue went to the president. Canberra. this review was “ongoing.usnwc. as the host governments in each case were deeply involved in discussions about potential adjustments. Secretary Rumsfeld rolled out his map. What finally forced the issue was the link between prospective overseas withdrawals of military assets and units and the planned round of the Base Closure and Realignment (BRAC) Commission. articulated his concept. make possible this assurance. Secretary of State Colin Powell understood DoD’s concern that the initiative could be subjected to death by a thousand none of the recommended changes in overseas American presence was yet decided. This was followed within days by a joint appearance at the North Atlantic Council by Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Marc Grossman and Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Douglas Feith. He graduated from Harvard College and received a M. all eyes turned to the secretary of state. who approved it to proceed to public rollout and consultation with other governments. Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs (1991-92). When the principals finally engaged at the White House. Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century. Rolling Out the Initiative On 25 November 2003. already undergoing very careful. By the fall of 2003. whenever the issue was raised within senior interagency circles.aspx] Since this large. there was no requirement for a special briefing to either. Bloomfield. the administration found itself in consensus that the GDPR was timely. 2006 [Lincoln. With that pithy intervention by Secretary Powell. such as Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage. there was also a temptation. were of course part of the GDPR picture. and when they had finished. and silence pervaded the room. It must not be a fait accompli imposed on allies from Washington. had told the administration not to start that process until it had first scrubbed the overseas basing system for other ways to streamline the global footprint. Major allies Japan and Korea. time was running short if GDPR decisions were to be in hand for the BRAC analytical work that was to commence in early 2004. and asked his aides to brief the rationale for this transformational initiative.” Chapter 3: Politics and Diplomacy of the Global Defense Posture Review. Precision strike. and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs (1988-89) among other policy positions in the Defense Department dating to 1981. and deserving of priority support subject to the president’s approval. emphasizing the need to move past a World War II–era basing structure. and stealth. with the DoD worldwide realignment plan finally ready for top-level interagency consideration. Secretary Powell pledged his and the State Department’s support and assistance to the Global Defense Posture Review under one condition. Secretaries Powell and Rumsfeld launched diplomatic consultations on the GDPR at the December 2003 NATO ministerial meetings. and Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs from 2001-2005. From the president’s 32/148 Thursday File as well as within their borders—will ensure their security as before. one that won quick endorsement from DoD and the interagency realm—that this initiative had to be conducted in full consultation with affected governments around the world.

Bloomfield previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (1992-93). The recent examples of relatively lean forces dislodging the Taliban regime from Kabul and then the Saddam Hussein regime from Baghdad spoke volumes about conceptual leaps forward in the military arts by the United States since World War II. http://www. you could fit every foreign service officer on an aircraft carrier. the administration provided briefing points for ambassadors to scores of countries.” http://www. however. Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs (1991-92). Former US Special Envoy for Man-Portable Air Defense Systems Threat in fact. but I appreciate your time and we’ll talk again soon. even when there is no formal mandate from NATO.umaryland. and technologies now operated.A. “Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA): What Is] there’s a larger kind of structural issue here about – you just compare the DOD budget to the State Department budget.L. the UN. And I think that translates Hastings: I think into the fact that a lot of the time just the leaders get the blame for all the wars. South Asia. military network so as to reflect the considerable changes over several decades in the way American soldiers. And.antiwar. and How Might One Be Utilized In Iraq?”. Africa. We’re packing up here and so I’ve got to take off. You know. and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs (1988-89) among other policy positions in the Defense Department dating to 1981. “Michael Hastings Interview Transcript.S. respectively. Hastings. readily responded to public and official queries about GDPR. Deputy Secretary Armitage was able to calm negative foreign press speculation by. 6-26-2010 [Michael. Mason. for example. http://www. it will serve the United States and its traditional allies best if the sides come to a mutual understanding on how to meet the needs of all.aspx] As the GDPR moves toward the implementation phase. the approach was to explain the merits of rationalizing the global U. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. $600 billion to $50 billion. The United States will do well to work out with allied governments modalities to satisfy host countries’ legitimate needs for information and consent. European governments will do well to revisit their ability to act immediately on time-sensitive intelligence. More ev – US will have to reassure allies. the two are one. carried to those regions the message that others had already given to Europe and Asia. State Department is stretched thin and military-diplomatic issues are inextricably linked. freelance writer. closure of facilities. Also – negotiating SOFAs requires time and resources. and they should take their fair share of blame. This is not to say.” Chapter 3: Politics and Diplomacy of the Global Defense Posture Review. assuring the Australian public that the United States did not seek to base combat units in Australia. Rolling Stone.pdf] . indeed since Vietnam. You know. “Reposturing the Force: U. regardless of the urgency. and Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs from 2001-2005. so you look like at just the sort of decay of the State Department and basically our foreign policy has become our defense there’s more people in the Army band than there are foreign service officers. but I think we also have to start looking at the military leaders in a much more critical way than they’re accustomed to be looked at. Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century. the EU or their parliaments. He graduated from Harvard College and received a M. You know. Mr. or timetables. Bloomfield. 6/16. that all these consultations in Europe and Asia divulged specifics on planned movements and locations of units. and the State Department’s regional assistant secretaries for Near East. 2006 [Lincoln. you look at every foreign service officer – you know.S. Every geographic combatant commander’s area of responsibility was slated to experience 33/148 Thursday File during the winter of 2003–2004. As this was truly a global initiative. You know. Instead.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. none of this was included in the initial briefings. and Latin America. Persuading allies that military operations had evolved over time was not difficult. as American military power is staged from their territories in future crises.usnwc. 2009 [Chuck.

Public Policy and Nuclear Threats Fellow...6 The Department of State and the Department of Defense.9 The Senate reservations to the NATO SOFA include four conditions: (1) the criminal jurisdiction provisions contained in Article VII of the agreement do not constitute a precedent for future agreements. armed forces in that state shall review the laws of the receiving state with reference to the procedural safeguards of the U. (2) when a servicemember is to be tried by authorities in a receiving state. Meyer Fellow Institue for Global Conflict 2009 (Timothy. every party to a treaty exercises a veto over amendments. Ph.. Berkeley School of Law. Berkeley. in which rules change over time to account flexibility can enhance global welfare over time. 32 Fordham Int'l L. as an export control regime. “SOFT LAW AS DELEGATION”. . have been deterred by a hard regime. Lexis) Binding international agreements (i. The resolution included a statement that nothing in the Agreement diminishes. J. From an evolutionary standpoint. and. Because the rule prohibiting the transfer of X is not directly binding. .. the cost to the United States of trade sanctions from a minor trading partner may be small compared with the benefits of such a violation because of the relative importance of the trading relationship to each state. subject to reservations. working together.. .. . .. Institute for Global Conflict and Cooperation and the National Science Foundation.J.. .com Thursday File With the exception of the multilateral SOFA among the United States and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries. however. material. First. Constitution.. and equipment...... the commanding officer shall request that the receiving state waive its jurisdiction. flexibility-enhancing devices are available to states to promote agreement in situations in which the parties might otherwise be unable to reach an accord. Because states are likely to have ex ante expectations about who the first movers will be.S.. The NATO SOFA7 is the only SOFA that was concluded as part of a treaty. . identify the need for a SOFA with a particular country and negotiate the terms of the agreement. which has the effect of reducing the reputational sanction for violating the soft law rule (because not all states will see a violation of the one as a violation of the other).e. University of California. The U. Fordham University School of Law Fordham International Law Journal. holding expected levels of compliance constant. Jurisprudence and Social Policy..Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 34/148 Cross-X. as well as opportunistic violations of the soft regime that could for new conditions.10 Renegotiating treaties like SOFAs to withdraw troops take large amounts of diplomatic capital because many parties have veto power. However.S. (4) a representative of the United States be appointed to attend the trial of any servicemember being tried by the receiving state and act to protect the constitutional rights of the servicemember. University of California..D. or alters the right of the United States to safeguard its own security by excluding or removing persons whose presence in the United States is deemed prejudicial to its safety or security. .. and that no person whose presence in the United States is deemed prejudicial to its safety or security shall be permitted to enter or remain in the United States. perceptions about the relationship between the two rules may vary.S. (3) if the commanding officer believes there is danger that the servicemember will not be protected because of the absence or denial of constitutional rights the accused would receive in the United States. Flexibility as a Device to Promote Agreement Other scholars have suggested that a variety of . the commanding officer of the U. treaties) often exacerbate the difficulties with renegotiation because unless a treaty provides otherwise. February 2009. 1970. This increase in the supply of counterproliferation is a public good that in some measure offsets the cost to other states of accepting their less-preferred counterproliferation rules.. ..D.. abridges. a SOFA is specific to an individual country and is in the form of an executive agreement. establishing a soft law regime recognizes that the benefits to permitting those states to update legal rules over time outweighs the costs in terms of an opportunistic updating of such rules. sought to make India an exception to the NSG rules that transfers can only be made to non-nuclear weapons states that have accepted safeguards on all of their nuclear operations (India. would not put safeguards on its military nuclear operations). like the nuclear weapons states. by permitting adjustment of the legal rules and expectations. PSI's purpose is to enforce international nonproliferation obligations by making it more difficult to acquire sensitive technology. 888.8 The Senate approved ratification of the NATO SOFA on March 19.

The Department is working to help build a whole-of-government approach to the provision of security assistance. and crafting a strategic approach to climate and energy challenges. both within DoD and beyond. these were shared with and reviewed by a wide range of experts. and Quadrennial Intelligence Community Review respectively. capabilities. interests while taking care of our people is the imperative to reform how it does business. defense posture that emphasizes cooperation with allies and partners and retailoring military forces. capabilities. interests.S. QDR staff consulted with and briefed congressional staff as well as representatives of allied and other governments. Quadrennial Homeland Security Review. and Secretary of State. . and plans in overlapping issue areas. For example. Over the course of the review. as well as the Intelligence Community. Defense leaders and staff worked closely with the Departments of State and Homeland Security. 2010) Part of the Department’s obligation to defend and advance U. The Quadrennial Defense Review in 2010 (QDR Report prepared for Congress.S. sharing insights regarding analysis. key missions. as they undertook their Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review.S. This QDR extensive engagement with key stakeholders. government to benefited from further the kind of integrated security approaches long advocated by the President. Given the complex security environment and the range of missions. Secretary of Defense. An important element of revitalizing key relationships is the need to craft an approach to the U. the QDR highlights the importance of revitalizing defense relationships with allies and partners in key regions. DoD officials also engaged with their counterparts elsewhere in the U. and defense agreements across regions. February 1.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 35/148 Cross-X. strengthening our technology and industrial bases to facilitate innovation.S. facilities. As the QDR generated insights and interim findings. improving our defense acquisition and logistics processes to better support our personnel in harm’s way. and institutional reforms necessary to protect and advance Thursday File Link – Military Change Military reforms and changes to our SQ policy require tons of diplomatic capital – consultation and reviews will happen at all levels of government.

Rejecting their recommendations would be a triumph of domestic politics over strategic judgment. The most unambiguous form of exit strategy is victory. Military strategy is traditionally defined by control of the maximum amount of territory. A negotiation with the group might isolate Al Qaeda and lead to its defeat. by following the received counterinsurgency playbook too literally. The second option--offered as an alternative--would shrink the current mission by focusing on counter-terrorism rather than counterinsurgency. after a while.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 36/148 Cross-X. control of 75 percent of the territory 100 percent of the time is more important than controlling 100 percent of the territory 75 percent of the time. the reversal of a process introduced with sweeping visions by two administrations may lead to chaos. As president. and recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize. After all. A key strategic issue. or a more effective way to sustain it. implies a surge testing the patience of the American public. each with outstanding qualifications. multiethnic society. fundamental . A seemingly unavoidable paradox emerges. Can a civil society be built on a national basis in a country which is neither a nation nor a state? In a partly feudal. it can be relegated to being a secondary target. therefore. served as National Security Advisor and later concurrently as Secretary of State in the administrations of Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford. Every guerrilla war raises the challenge of how to define military objectives. The prospects of world order will be greatly affected by whether our strategy comes to be perceived as a retreat from the region. Those in the chain of command in Afghanistan. though as we have seen in Korea. Even Alexander the Great only passed through. The request for more forces by General McChrystal states explicitly that his existing forces are inadequate for this mission. It would raise the most serious questions about American steadiness in India. in return for not challenging the Taliban in the governance of Afghanistan. ever pacified the entire country. however. Since the Taliban. But to win in Afghanistan we’ll need help from its powerful neighbors” Lexis] The demand for an exit strategy is. it was the Taliban which provided bases for Al Qaeda in the first place. Therefore. a metaphor for withdrawal. not a global. Is that paradox soluble? The prevailing strategy in Afghanistan is based on the classic anti-insurrection doctrine: to build a central government. A decision not to increase current force levels involves. since the Mongol invasion. if at all. threat. Congress terminated an American role even after all our troops had. American political scientist. Even so-called realists--like me-would gag at a tacit U. at a minimum. extrication becomes his principal objective. But those occurred after the surge. Newsweek. and withdrawal that is not accompanied by a willingness to sustain the outcome amounts to abandonment. The military strategy proposed by Generals McChrystal and Petraeus needs. “More troops is a start. It remains to be seen to what extent the achievements of the surge in Iraq will be sustained there politically. with our training. To adopt such a course is a disguised way of retreating from Afghanistan altogether. to be given a broader context with particular emphasis on the political environment. implying three options: to continue the present deployment and abandon the McChrystal strategy. But the strategy of the guerrilla--described by Mao--is to draw the adversary into a morass of popular resistance in which.S. will be which part of Afghan territory can be effectively controlled in terms of these criteria. It would also imply the partition of Afghanistan along functional lines. In short. 2009 [Henry. according to this view. proclaimed Afghanistan a necessary war. This is not to exclude the possibility of defections from the Taliban as occurred from Al Qaeda in Iraq's Anbar province. by a coalition of local feudal or semifeudal rulers. abandoning the strategy proposed by General McChrystal and endorsed by Gen. he has shown considerable courage in implementing his promise to increase our forces in Afghanistan and to pursue the war more energetically. where American troops have remained since 1953. No outside force has. or to increase the existing deployment with a strategy focused on the security of the population. threatening domestic chaos. as a candidate. we produced another motive for civil war. in turn. This theory seems to me to be too clever by half. That is likely to be the fate of any central government in Kabul. commit it to the improvement of the lives of its people. In Vietnam. Yet the fanaticism that motivates guerrillas--not to speak of suicide bombers--does not allow for compromise unless they face defeat or exhaustion. David Petraeus. regardless of its ideological coloration and perhaps even its efficiency. cooperation with the Taliban in the governance of Afghanistan. It would be ironic if. the guerrillas often ceded control of the territory during the day and returned at night to prevent political stabilization. The domestic debate generates the pressure for diplomatic compromise. in fact. That. This is of particular relevance to Afghanistan. President Obama. It would draw us into a numbers game without definable criteria. to decrease the present deployment with a new strategy. in guerrilla war. and then protect the population until that government's own forces are able. even that may not permit troop withdrawals. for it is highly improbable that the civic actions on which our policies are based could be carried out in areas controlled by the Thursday File Link – Afghanistan Withdrawal requires huge diplomatic efforts to reassure stakeholders in the region. A sudden reversal of American policy would fundamentally affect domestic stability in Pakistan by freeing the Qaeda forces along the Afghan border for even deeper incursions into Pakistan. Afghanistan has been governed. been withdrawn for two years. In the past. to take over. Hence the defeat of Al Qaeda and radical Islamic jihad should be the dominant priority. and loss of confidence in American reliability. of course. not as a way to avoid it. Al Qaeda and the Taliban are unlikely to be able to be separated so neatly geographically. it would be widely interpreted as the first step toward withdrawal. The argument would be that the overriding American strategic objective in Afghanistan is to prevent the country from turning once again into a base for international terrorism. Kissinger. In Vietnam. 10-12. ultimately deeper American involvement. have all been recently appointed by the Obama administration. the probable target should a collapse in Afghanistan give jihad an even greater impetus. diplomat. any attempt to endow the central government with overriding authority has been resisted by some established local rulers. is a local.

For the foreseeable future.S. even Iran by the fundamentalist Sunni Taliban. where he is expected to ask allies for more help. India by general jihadism and specific terror groups. “U.which include U. made the right decision to use military force there. ministers demanded a review of international troops within its borders. Policy failure will devastate US negotiating credibility. the control from Kabul may be tenuous and its structure less than ideal. And with them.S. support for the mission remains robust. India.S. 9-8] Afghan government concluded its investigation. no other country had the combination of resources or national interest required. there was no alternative to America's leading the effort." The deployment fell short of the 30. 64% of respondents said the U.cnn. In all previous American ground-combat efforts.htm] But the independent panel's report calls for more. 2003 [Nikola. but it was more than some of Obama's anti-war supporters would have liked. More emphasis needs to be given to regional efforts and regional militia. peace efforts in Iraq. The president also ordered a review of policies in Afghanistan to be completed before April's NATO summit.000 U. The special aspect of Afghanistan is that it has powerful neighbors or near neighbors--Pakistan.S. as well as house searches not coordinated with Afghan authorities and the illegal detention of President Barack requested by General David McKiernan. a serious diplomatic effort is needed to address the major anomaly of the Afghan war. Wisner drew a parallel between the current situation in Afghanistan and U.S.html) Obama authorized sending another 17. so far. http://www.: Panel Urges Increased Support For Afghan Government. "Our credibility as a peacekeeper. Iran. Each has substantial capacities for defending its interests. “Sources: Cell phone images alter course of Afghan probe“. those responses were 69% . in many In January 2006. perhaps unrelatable to the rhythm of our electoral processes.civilians/.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 37/148 Cross-X. Withdrawal requires SOFA negotiations." Wisner Thursday File social reform is a long process. http://www. more than we are by the emergence of a base for international terrorism: Pakistan by Al Qaeda. Forbes. once the decision was taken.S. Each is threatened in one way or another and. while 25% said the country had made the wrong decision. A major effort is needed to encourage such an evolution.these points of credibility are all at issue. If we can't get it right in Afghanistan. China. 2008 [Barbara Starr. CNN. Russia. to stand more or less aloof.S. This would also enhance our political flexibility. and NATO command there. GlobalSecurity. our credibility as a warrior against terror. What does the public have to say about the situation in Afghanistan? Is public opinion turning against the "good" war? Can we expect help from our European allies? And what do Afghans have to say about conditions on the ground? U. Russia by unrest in the Muslim south.S. 23 February. our credibility as a mobilizer of international coalitions when crises are reached and if we don't succeed and get it right in Afghanistan -. It says any further security deterioration in Afghanistan will have far-reaching implications for U. China by fundamentalist Shiite jihadists in Xinjiang. it's going to be a lot harder to convince others to work with us to get it right in Iraq.forbes. our credibility as a force for stability.000 troops Last week. troops to Afghanistan to "stabilize a deteriorating situation. Each has chosen. “War In Afghanistan”. Answering a Pew Research Center question from January. Afghanistan's Council of Ministers called on the Defense and Foreign Affairs ministries to start negotiating a "status of forces" agreement with international forces -.globalsecurity. On August 25. who heads the U. I'll suggest as well is our ability to look forward to the kind of exit from Iraq that we as Americans would want to achieve at a certain point. Pulling troops out of Afghanistan will delay other priorities – Afghanistan wants us to stay and will prolong negotiations Bowman 9 (Karlyn. foreign policy and will undermine the global position of Washington as a and NATO troops. The council also asked that the ministry es demand After the the international forces halt airstrikes on civilian targets.” http://www. Krastev.

32% do now). 30% of Europeans agreed that "under some conditions. In Pew's January 2009 poll. said coalition forces should withdraw only after security has been restored. .. When asked about conducting combat operations against the Taliban. respectively--said the number should be decreased. military presence. wanted to increase U. Questions about troop levels asked by three major U. however. At the same time. In the same poll. views about how the war is going have deteriorated.S. survey question. only 28% gave that response. and NATO/ISAF troops in their country. pollsters in mid January show that around one-third of Americans believe the U. with the BBC and ARD German TV. In its ABC News. In Europe.S. In CBS News/New York Times and ABC News/Washington Post polls. should increase the number of troops in Afghanistan.S. and the U. 76% said it was going very or somewhat well for the U. Americans were more positive about the military effort in Iraq than they were about that in Afghanistan. In Pew's poll.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 38/148 Cross-X. at 13%. the 2007 Transatlantic Trends/German Marshall Fund survey found 64% of Europeans supported international reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan. Hamid Karzai (83% deemed him excellent or good in 2005. a figure down from 78% in 2006. government (68% called it excellent or good in 2005.S.) Sixty-three percent support the presence of U. Obama's popularity on the continent is unlikely to trump its residents' pacifism. in answer to another question. war is necessary to obtain justice. They were less enthusiastic. nearly half of Democrats surveyed (48%) wanted to reduce U. just 30% of Europeans expressed support.S. 36% said the U. Fifty-eight percent of Afghans said the greatest danger their country faces is the resurgence of the Taliban. In another question. Transatlantic Trends found that more than 70% of respondents in the five European countries with the most troops in Afghanistan supported providing security for economic reconstruction projects and for helping to stem narcotics production.S. while 44% wanted to cut the numbers. by August 2008. In a March 2003 CBS News/New York Times Thursday File and 20%.S. slightly fewer--28% and 29%. about helping train the Afghan police forces or combat troops." Comment On This Story In 2008. respectively. A strong plurality. military forces in their country. found a sharp deterioration in views of Afghanistan's president. In a December 2008 CNN/Opinion Research Corp. was winning in Afghanistan. 18% of Afghans fourth survey of opinion of Afghans. though. 52% do now). So when it comes to getting additional combat support from Europe. (Drug traffickers were a distant second. 60% said it was not.

solemnly made. A global posture realignment that involves moving large numbers of those sentries and their weapons inevitably begs the most urgent of security questions. That Mr. For all the calculations of greater efficiency and utility that commend the idea of reconfiguring America’s global military footprint. armed forces standing the watch in almost every latitude and time zone has calmed regional rivalries and dissuaded armed escalations for sixty years. The Global Defense Posture Review (GDPR) is such an undertaking. of perturbing the very stability that America’s global military presence is meant to ensure. their Thursday File Links – Asia Reducing military presence prompts State Department intervention – focuses diplomatic efforts on minimizing effects of the aff. assets. approximately five thousand facilities spread all over the country and the world. At the same time. Rumsfeld took on this monumental management task.S. Korea. forces and the state of America’s diplomatic relations with them. Conceptually.S. is noteworthy.usnwc. directly to the point of engagement. and Australia— to come to their defense in extremis. military force units. this massive exercise in managerial housekeeping by the secretary of defense cannot be viewed exclusively as one cabinet executive’s effort to make more productive use of the people. Of all of Donald Rumsfeld’s actions during his headline-filled second tenure as secretary of defense. Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century. their facilities. without overly taxing the system. streamlining. and funding allotted to his department.L. Rarely to be found among these major tasks will be any large-scale updating. redesign. Big Decision: Getting to “Yes” What with the profound implications of a posture change for allied countries hosting U. globally managed force posture would optimize the flow of combat power along sea. These are national commitments. and the allied governments themselves. and their support structure should be physically positioned according to the logic of global geography is very appealing. and therefore runs the risk. The Department of State.D.” Chapter 3: Politics and Diplomacy of the Global Defense Posture Review. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs (1991-92). the Rio Treaty. even when the nature and location of the crisis had not been foreseen.S. resident in allied populations in more than fifty countries by latest count. his determination to rethink. and an annual budget now surpassing $400 billion. Such a concept would best allow future presidents to position viable military options to employ anywhere in response to a sudden danger on the shortest of notice.aspx] An Ambitious Concept When historians look back on the Defense Department’s biggest undertakings during its first six decades of An Ambitious Concept The idea that U. would inevitably make their voices heard before the Department of Defense’s new scheme based on geographic convenience and logistical efficiency could supplant longstanding basing patterns in foreign localities. air. global defense posture could profit the nation’s security. and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs (1988-89) among other policy positions in the Defense Department dating to 1981.A. indeed overwhelmingly. and reposition the U. and bilateral security treaties with Japan. Big Change. “Reposturing the Force: U. or reconfiguration of an organizational empire that includes well over two million soldiers and civilians.S. and the sight of U. the fielding of powerful and complex weapons systems. a well-executed streamlining of the U. Bloomfield previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (1992-93).S. this initiative is inescapably. and the promulgation of defense and security strategies to prepare for and deter threats to the national interest. the Philippines. To think otherwise would be to overlook the belief. certainly none of his predecessors seriously attempted it. if not in monetary terms certainly in the ability of a finite force structure to deliver the maximum military benefit through the greater efficiencies and capabilities of the new global posture. and it embodied major foreign policy equities. that America is committed—via the North Atlantic Treaty. Over the long term. braving the predictable resistance of settled constituencies from one end of the globe to the other. He graduated from Harvard College and received a M. Thailand. Bloomfield. the decision to embark on a global realignment was the president’s to make. military’s posture at home and abroad according to a rational design reflecting contemporary security conditions should stand as a positive mark in his legacy. Former US Special Envoy for Man-Portable Air Defense Systems Threat Reduction. http://www.S. and land routes from one region to the next. 2006 [Lincoln. That he did it during wartime is extraordinary. excites foreign anxieties in many quarters. depending on how the matter is handled. political in terms of its effect on the rest of the world. never mind foreign policy . an efficiently designed. One could well imagine the Pentagon’s potential misgivings about placing this hugely ambitious venture at the mercy of other departments. and Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs from 2001-2005.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 39/148 Cross-X. they will of course cite the prosecution of wars both hot and cold. Mr.

The concern was not imaginary.” http://www. The region wants a “resident” US. might aggravate rather than defuse foreign anxieties were also not entirely misplaced. It is even good for the Chinese themselves. indeed opposition. concerns in the State Department that some Department of Defense (DoD) officials. . It wants a strong US. In at least one country DoD doggedly sought to announce and implement a drawdown of military assets against that ally’s wishes and with an evident relish that required diplomatic damage control and led the president to withhold to himself the withdrawal decision. policy bureaucracy as a whole. The Obama administration needs to consider the full range of policy decisions and diplomacy in this light.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. however. Lohman. All the trips to the region and speeches in the world. On the other hand. “Managing alliances in a new world. They need reassurance. Specifically true for Asian withdrawals. The future of US alliances and.S. At no time since the administration of former US president Jimmy Carter. however helpful to the cause. such concerns were not limited to experienced regional specialists in the State] US allies in Asia and friends who depend on them have long wrung their hands at the prospect of US withdrawal. will not fill the gap alone. there were indeed some in the State Department who wanted nothing more than for the initiative to go away and who feared damage to alliances if it went forward. by their manner. Within the U. by extension. Countries in the region are in the early stages of planning against that eventuality. depends on it. whose reaction to any disturbance of the diplomatic status quo might be expected to be one of resistance to change. director of the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation. US long-term 40/148 Thursday File bureaucrats. Taipei Times. because it precludes some of the most aggressive scenarios in their own development. there were varying perceptions about whether the advertised merits of particular changes under the Global Defense Posture Review would indeed redound to the long-term security benefit of the United States. has their concern looked more plausible. 5-16-2010 [Walter. even to discussing prospective force reductions with allied countries.

pacifists. with members of his coalition government calling for all US troops to leave Japan. Labor unionists. with its review of the Futenma relocation plan.html) US assistant secretary of state for East Asia is due to arrive in Tokyo on Monday for talks on the future visit comes after thousands of people from across Japan joined protests at the weekend against plans to relocate a US base on the southern island of Okinawa. he pledged to resolve the issue by May. But the newly elected Japanese government is re-examining the deal. told a crowd protesters that she wants to see the Okinawa base closed and US troops moved out of Japan entirely.000 US troops are stationed in Japan. Hatoyama has repeatedly postponed his decision on the pact. Campbell said the alliance with Japan was a "cornerstone" of the US engagement in Asia. Last week. They gathered for a rally at a park. the two countries signed a pact that called for the realignment of American troops in the country and for a marine base on the island to be moved to a less populated area. Campbell also reiterated Washington's desire to see that the US Marine Corps Air Station at Futenma be transferred to another area on the island by 2014. But the issue is a difficult one for the prime minister to juggle. Some 47. called for the removal of the US base [Reuters] Last month Campbell called on Japan to stick to the 2006 deal and relocate the US Futenma air base in Okinawa. http://english. At a rally against the base.aljazeera. as thousands marched through central Tokyo on Saturday. Local residents have long complained about Thursday File Link – Japan Renegotiating the SOFA will be costly – internal political struggles in Japan will prevent quick passage of the plan. In written testimony before a Senate Foreign Relations Committee subcommittee on January 21. with members of his own government divided on how to proceed. a minister in Hatoyama's cabinet. just before national elections. Meanwhile. In 2006. opposition to the US-Japan pact is growing louder.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 41/148 Cross-X. a cabinet minister. Kurt Campbell's 'Cornerstone' alliance Mizuho Fukushima. Mizuho Fukushima. pollution and crime around the bases. environmentalists and students called for an end to the US troop presence.S. led by prime minister Yukio Hatoyama. He said the US is assisting the Japanese under a banner that read "Change! Japan-U. caught between increasing public opposition to US troops and its crucial military alliance with Washington. The of American military bases in Japan. . Decision postponed However. Al Jazeera 10 (1 February 2010. “US envoy to discuss Japan bases”. with more than half on the island. Relations".

His decision is in full harmony with Korean culture and emotion. http://www.lexisnexis. the decision is worthy of delay.S. Acc. couldn't we postpone the decision until at least denuclearization of North Korea is completed? The OPCON transfer and the CFC dissolution is not a simple military issue but a complicated matter where hard power and soft power are combined. should not send any hint of a wrong signal to Kim Jong-il. military. We We need to exercise similar wisdom. Concerning the unpreparedness of the ROK military against a North they ask. spreading quiet ripple effects on Korean Thursday File Link – South Korea Plan unpopular: Public wants US troops to stay until North Korea denuclearizes Cheon 09 [Seong-whun. Korean WMD this moment. 1/23/09. General Sharp sent USFK officials at Incheon Airport to receive the remains of Kim Suk-im who died when an American jet fighter crashed into her San Diego home last December. Writer for the Korea Herald. They manufactured a false sense of peace and security while intentionally ignoring or making little of the Still. Using soft power is the ability to attract the South Korean people to the American side. Remembering that the United nuclear threat. Recently. they question what the alliance is all about.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 42/148 Cross-X. States saved their country from North Korean aggression and also is the only foreign country the ROK has ever fought for in the history of Korea. Their insufficient knowledge of the North Korean nuclear threat largely results from deliberate propaganda of the Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun administrations. 6/24/10 through LexisNexis. That is priority number one of the alliance at this juncture. Simply because the North Korean military is most delighted to see the OPCON transfer and the CFC dissolution. Some even think that Washington is ready to accept the DPRK as a nuclear state as long as it is not committed to proliferation. South Koreans question whether it is right to implement the decision the OPCON transfer and the CFC dissolution . there was an auspicious example in this regard. The vast majority of South Koreans don't question the authenticity of the professional judgment of the U. Successfully exercising soft power in the alliance means that the United States should win over South Koreans by paying careful attention to what they believe. He also sent a delegation to express his condolences to the family of Kim. . “Transfer of troop control: A Bush docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T9622716431&format=GNBFI&sort=RELEVANCE&startDocNo=1&resu ltsUrlKey=29_T9622562285&cisb=22_T9622716436&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=158208& docNo=1] The South Korean public was perplexed at the gushing of official reports and remarks from the United States.” Korea Herald.

troops out of Iraq.000 troops -. If the US doesn’t address Maliki’s postelection moves. 120. http://www.000 trailer-sized] Another challenge of the withdrawal is how to move the significant amount of equipment now in Iraq. Bryant. According to the Status of Forces Agreement. Kurdish politicians I met in Irbil warned that if Iraqi-Kurdish land disputes aren't resolved by the end of 2011 (and odds are they won't be).say 10. which the Monitor recently tallied to include: 60. The possibility of miscalculation will grow once the Iraqi armed forces acquire the M-1 tanks and F-16 fighters that we have agreed to sell Thursday File Link – Iraq Troop drawdown in Iraq will take years of intense negotiations. It is vital to have a continuing American military presence to train That should be no surprise considering that President and advise Iraqi security forces. One option might be to send some personnel and equipment via Turkey.S. where the two-lane Habur Gate crossing has been used quietly as a way to move supplies. Thus the Iraqi and American timelines are dangerously out of sync. Lexis] Obama's overriding objective is to pull U.csmonitor. CSM.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 43/148 Cross-X. The presumption was that the drawdown would occur after Iraq had installed a new government. That takes tons of diplomatic resources. But US units are supposed to draw back from Iraqi cities to US bases by this summer.” 2-27. The Iraqi-American security accord negotiated by the George W. “Troop withdrawal: Obama to end Iraq war by August 2010. but that will only be possible after what is sure to be a protracted and tortuous negotiation with the new Iraqi government. U. 2009 [Christa Case. 5-9-2010 [Max. It is all the more important that an American buffer -. If the new government isn't seated until the end of this year. “There’s still time to lose in Iraq. a US-Iraqi deal settled on at the end of 2008. http://afp. But Iraqi politicians now expect that no government will emerge before the fall.S.remain to ensure that those weapons are never used against our Kurdish allies. AFP. American officials expected that postelection jockeying would end by June at the latest. 5-9. Iraq still negotiating troop presence deal”. troops also play a vital peacekeeping role. 2008 [“US. officers in Iraq are right now implementing plans to draw down our troops to zero by the end of 2011. it will be extremely difficult to conclude a treaty by the end of next year. In keeping with the deal. The delay in seating a government also endangers the possible negotiation of a fresh accord to govern Iraqi-American relations after 2011. Boot. a US military presence is allowed for up to three more years.000 aircraft and vehicles. They hope that some forces will be permitted to remain. the billions of dollars spent and the thousands of lives lost could be for nothing” Los Angeles Times. there is a serious danger of war breaking out once American troops leave. Obama added a new twist by ordering that troop strength be cut from the current 95. Senior fellow in national security studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and contributing editor to the opinion section of Los Angeles Times.S. and 150.000 by September. which have grown in size and competence but still aren't capable of defending their airspace or performing other vital functions. 10-15. Large troop reductions at a time of such political uncertainty will send a dangerous signal of disengagement and lessen America's ability to preserve the integrity of the Yet U.000 troops – a bigger number than Democrats were expecting – will leave by 2011. SOFA goes til 2011 – withdrawing ahead of schedule means we’d have to negotiate a new one.000 private contractors from nearly 50 bases and installations.000 to 15.000 to 50. and Obama’s plan now indicates an earlier withdrawal of the bulk of the troops by August 2010. Obama promised today that the remaining] . patrolling with Iraqi troops and the Kurdish peshmerga along the disputed Green Line separating Iraq proper from the Kurdish regional government. Bush administration called for the departure of all our soldiers by the end of 2011. The last American-Iraqi security accord took a year to negotiate.

Robinson.S. The act includes. the White House said Friday. whether Washington has the right to detain Iraqi prisoners and on the future command of military operations on the ground.S. We are still talking to the Iraqis. but U.S. President Barack Obama has ordered all U. troops to remain when an U. He declined to say whether the two sides were even close to a deal.S. 2009 [Dan. forces in Iraq.N." Iraqi parliament member Saleh al-Mutlaq said the only way to ensure free and fair elections in his country is with a commitment by the U." State Department spokesman Sean McCormack told reporters. "The implementation of [the] political reform act as passed by Parliament in 2008 is a must. dubbed the Status of Forces Agreement. Allawi said Iraq's military remains unable to shoulder the security burden. The U.S. both Allawi and parliament member Saleh al-Mutlaq pointed to political. Iraq has proposed requiring U. But. sectarian and other problems as well as external factors. instituting an inclusive political process and implementing political and national reconciliation. while Iraq seeks a path of prosperity and sovereignty where individual and minority rights are respected. And he said oustanding political and constitutional issues are also giving rise to severe tensions. forces to withdraw fully five years after the Iraqis take the lead on security nationwide. "Without this monitoring. "Nothing is done until everything is done. but has been held up by the ongoing negotiations.President likelihood of some kind of timetable for future U.S. Withdrawal requires negotiation with Iraqi government. withdrawal. forces gone by the end of 2011." the White House said. but that condition could take years to meet. Iraqi government opposes immediate withdrawal before stability – diplomatic investments necessary in the absence of presence.51voa.S.html] Former Iraqi Prime Minister Allawi said the United States and Iraq have similar goals. senior US officials said Wednesday. “Iraqi Politicians Urge Cautious US Military Withdrawal. among [other things] amending the Constitution. Both US and Iraqi leaders have stressed that a deal is in the works. officials have been much more cautious despite an improving security situation. the president and the prime minister agreed that improving conditions should allow for the agreements now under negotiation to include a general time horizon for meeting aspirational goals — such as the resumption of Iraqi security control in their cities and provinces and the further reduction of U. 2008 [“U. Maliki had recently suggested a timetable be set for U.” 9-18. US Defense Secretary Robert Gates said he was "actually reasonably optimistic we will come to closure on this in a very near future.” 7-18. In the closest the Bush administration has come to acknowledging the WASHINGTON . he] Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki have agreed that a security deal under negotiation should set a "time horizon" for meeting "aspirational goals" for reducing U. and all U.michaelmoore. combat forces from Iraq. http://www. but not in turmoil. Everything isn't done. officials have been working in fits and starts on a formal Status of Forces Agreement to provide a legal basis for U." The accord. http://www. troop cuts. "In the area of security cooperation." he said. While Iraqis know the United States will be withdrawing its military forces. Saying the United States withdrawal should be "moral and responsible. I . combat forces out of Iraq by the end of August of next year.S. mandate expires at the end of the year. is to put in place a deal for the future status of US troops in Iraq after the UN Security Council mandate for the multinational force expires on December 31.S. wants to leave Iraq. yet these steps are very necessary for the stabilization of Iraq.. The Iraqis are still talking among – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. But they have differed over some issues such as granting immunity to US soldiers for acts committed in Iraq. MSNBC. such as pressures from Iran. 44/148 Thursday File WASHINGTON (AFP) — The United States and Iraq are still negotiating the terms of an agreement on the future presence of US troops in Iraq next year." Iraqi and U. And. and United Nations for thorough monitoring. The deal was originally set to be signed in July. the White House said "the goals would be based on continued improving conditions on the ground and not an arbitrary date for withdrawal. that could cause problems during and after the elections.S. Iraq seek troop withdrawal 'time horizon'. None of these steps has been acted upon. Upon returning from a trip to Europe last week.S.

and instead attended an economic summit in Kuwait. 'We tried it once. forces. tensions.jordantimes. "Sectarianism. Douglas Lute. "All this has sent the right signals. that our people are going to be targeted. the subcommittee Chairman. Chakmakijan. policy in Afghanistan. On the final day of a visit to Iraq. In his testimony to the subcommittee. government performance. has a moral responsibility and national security interest in ensuring fraud-free elections in Iraq. the arch-foe of Washington ever since matter what the differences between the United States and a neighbouring country. outmaneuver and constrain rival factions.S. "We have proven that no battered country. “Iraq Sheds US Puppet in its Own Backyard. over our constitutional reforms. support here in this country for involvement in Afghanistan will diminish because the American people will be saying. permanent The United States and Iraq have agreed to start formal negotiations about their future relationship with the goal of finishing an accord by the end of July. with economic issues high on the agenda. Congress to the United Nations." he said. in the media.S. It's about Afghanistan and I dare say it's about the entire region. but a strong United Nations involvement.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 45/148 Cross-X. especially after this agreement with the US and the way we debated it. And we have been getting so many warnings that we are going to be targeted. Reuters. Katzman said sectarian tensions could reach a peak as Iraqis decide whether to hold a referendum on the U. withdrawal schedule. nor will we seek. 2008 [Kristin. "The impression has completely changed. More ev – SOFAs." Gates told a U." Zebari said Baghdad's often troubled ties with Damascus had "improved a great deal" . “Gates: US won't promise to defend Iraq in accord”. "If the election in January is unsuccessful. U." he later told a U. "We do not want. he said. referring to the scepticism of nearby countries." he said. Roberts." he said. 2-17. For Baghdad. Pointing to questions about the legitimacy of the recent election in Afghanistan. an Iraqi Kurd. Democratic Representative William Delahunt. "We are thinking of reopening our [oil] pipeline through Syria to the Mediterranean. And look what happened.S. warned that sectarianism in Iraq might worsen in the run-up to the elections. and ethnic and factional infighting continue to simmer. forces operate in Iraq.S.S. as another example of Iraq's ability to stand on its own two Thursday File believe that the election will be the same as happened before.S. but the impact electoral problems in Iraq could have on the American public support for U. Vice President Joe Biden said on Thursday the United States will abide by any decisions by the Iraqi people on the U. bases in Iraq." the foreign minister said. Zebari." in contrast to other countries where it would have been a state secret.. Plus. The Democratic representative of the U. in parliament. withdrawing before stability devastates negotiating credibility. the [long-delayed] oil law.php?news=14364&searchFor=Iran] "We have political problems. a specialist in Middle East Affairs with the Congressional Research Service. House of Representatives committee." he said. "these are part of the reconciliation" process in the warthe 1979 Islamic revolution.S. Iraq had also taken a stand last month by staying away from a meeting of leaders in Qatar meant to shore up support for Hamas over the Gaza crisis. In his testimony Thursday. that's a key issue. Delahunt said he will use consultations in New York next week to generate support for international monitoring of the Iraqi elections. said a large international observer presence is required before and during the vote. Calling the elections critical. Kenneth Katzman. staff writer for Agence French Presse. along with an upsurge in sectarian tensions.S. Gen. The intimidation is already there." he said. referring to the loss of diplomatic credibility after the US-led invasion of March 2003 that toppled Saddam Hussein. former Iraqi Prime Minister Allawi voiced concern about what he called "reversals in security" after a fragile period of improvement. the White House deputy national security adviser. not only for Iraq's future but for the region. has said. which should include not only the deployment of U. http://www. The agreement will set the rules and legal protections under which Zebari pointed to the opening of several Arab embassies in Baghdad and to the expected stream of diplomatic visits.reuters. The size of the long-term U. Lt.' So this isn't just simply about supporting the Iraqi people and democracy in Iraq. "It used to be that way. adorned with a plush Persian carpet. The United States. military presence.” http://www. it didn't work. our continued engagement despite their negativism." he said in his office. Within the Arab world.S.] "The status-of-forces agreement that is being discussed will not contain a commitment to defend Iraq and neither will any strategic framework agreement. Staff Writer. also pointed to Baghdad's good ties with Tehran. we have our vested interests and can make our own decisions. he said. part of which was established in a Status of Forces Agreement reached during the Bush administration. Delahunt worries not only about a deterioration in Iraq. stressing that Iraq's neighbours were now taking it seriously.S. 2009 [Haro. presence in Iraq also will be part of the negotiations." he said. And many Iraqis' views and positions are colored by efforts to outflank. the assassinations are already there.. Senate panel. "Syria's prime minister and foreign minister are coming over soon.

with which Iraq has had troubled ties for decades. Democrats should admit that the "surge" worked and -. "We have come a long.S.S." Zebari said. Thursday File following their opening of embassies in late Peter Beinart today bravely repeats the emerging would-be conventional wisdom. which finished first in votes in Iraq’s national elections in March..S. ForeignPolicy." Turning to Tehran." With Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's visit last week .S. not the surge”. 10 [Ayad. I am Signing a Status of Forces Agreement requiring the full withdrawal of U." said Zebari. even the chances of success in the Israeli-Palestinian issue Renegotiating SOFAs for troop withdrawal requires considerable diplomatic capital – Iraq proves. But our attitude [now] is to deal with each other as two sovereign countries. it would also put at risk every U. to have a protocol of dealing with each other.yalibnan. "To say that they dictate to us. "We told them this is a sovereign Iraqi decision. to Baghdad for the first time. dominated by regional be followed. I have to be honest.” YaLibnan. I think.foreignpolicy. He served as prime minister from 2004 to 2005. leader of the Iraqiya List." the minister said. largely thanks to Bush's acceptance of his own bargaining failure that Barack Obama will inherit a plausible route to successful . soldiers who sacrificed their lives. military forces from Iraq on a fixed three year timeline demonstrated a real flexibility on Bush's part. by Iran's former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani the two sides are placing their diplomatic ties on a new footing. “Editorial: How Iraq can fortify its fragile democracy. said Zebari. no. demarcation of borders and the billions of dollars in war reparation claims will be among the thorny issues on the agenda. It is willing to offer an alternative as Bush's finest hour in Iraq: the Status of Forces Agreement. Rather than simply denounce everything Republican. he argues. and international policy priority in the region — the planned troop withdrawals. and secondly they felt that this will backfire on them.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 46/148 Cross-X. Zebari contrasted the approach to the individual contacts dating back to the days of opposition to Saddam's regime when many of today's leaders of Iraq were exiled in Iran. a stable energy supply. who has served as foreign minister since Iraq's first post-invasion administration. of Iraq asserting more independence. While I have long supported the withdrawal of U.uniquely echoing a thousand recent op-eds -was President Bush's finest moment. that is wrong. http://lynch. It demonstrated a pragmatism and willingness to put the national interest ahead of partisanship that few of us believed he possessed. “Bush's finest moment on Iraq: SOFA.. Such an outcome would insult the tens of thousands of Iraqi civilians whose lives were stolen in terrorist attacks and the thousands of U. Iraq cannot be allowed to revert to an unstable state of sectarian strife. as well as a moral responsibility to the Iraqi people whom it freed from tyranny to do all it can to deliver sustainable peace and stability. associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University .000 by this summer. Joint oil fields. "They took that as a sign. troops. "They have influence.perhaps we could have another round of arguments as to whether the surge brigades arriving in the spring of 2007 caused the Sunni turn against al-Qaeda in the fall of 2006? But in the interests of post-partisanship. culminating in Saddam's 1990 invasion." he said. he acknowledged Shiite Iran was influential in the new Iraq." he said. Moreover. through] we hope that the United States and the United Nations will help bring Iraq’s political blocs together to achieve a government in the national interest. 28 January 2009. to help shield our fragile democracy from foreign interference and forces that wish to undermine democracy. Washington still has unrivaled leverage in Iraq. where the Shiite majority is dominant. I sincerely hope that the United States will remain actively engaged in Iraq. nuclear containment. citing Tehran's strong opposition to the security pact with Washington. through official channels. Renegotiating the SOFA for a rapid withdrawal will demand large amounts of attention – Allawi wants US troops to stay for legitimacy and will delay negotiations. I have a hard time imagining anything as tedious as rehashing those tired debates from the campaign about the "surge" -. "There are less infiltrators coming from the Syrian border. Lynch Professor Political Science 09 (Marc. Sheikh Mohammad Sabah Al Salim Al Sabah. They haven't stopped but the Syrians have taken a number of measures. long way with them. http://www.. Vice President Biden recently said that the United States was “going to be able to keep our commitment” to reduce troop levels in Iraq to 50. is sending its deputy premier and foreign minister. Even Kuwait. "We are trying to formalise relations with them through embassies.

and sectarian killings. to most everyone's surprise. pointless. http://bigthink. the December 31 deadline loomed large. the Iraqi leaders clearly kept a careful eye on the American Presidential elections and used Obama's stance to strengthen their own hand in negotiations. and God willing will never be used.S. And they’re now being used against American troops. withdrawal.S. took a hard line in the negotiations. Yes. and violence. We still have enormous stockpiles of strategic weapons that have never been used. Women in .S. Bush agreed to the Obama-style timeline for U. . there will still be bloodshed. The Iraqis were also helped by the calender.S.S. . But we have stretched thin our conventional forces in a foolish.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 47/148 SOFA negotiations looking for something entirely different than what emerged at the end. playing high-stakes chicken at the expense of American military planning for the coming year and at the risk of the Iraqi political system not having adequate time to ratify the deal. . Thanks to this pragmatism. he hedged -. I might speculate. forces in three years. it was widely assumed that Bush would extract from the Iraqis an agreement which made the removal of U. There were widespread discussions of permanent U. So what have we achieved? And there are more Iraqi civilians being killed every day. as stressed by many frustrated American commentators. I don’t believe that with the United States having taken the lid off Pandora’s box . was in charge than they . he could have insisted on the latter. withdrawal instead of a Bush/McCain. would retain a free hand in its operations. 2008 [Ted. he was an evil man. occupation under any name. When negotiations began. And it’s . who was secular. Obama can now work closely with the Iraqi government in managing the drawdown instead of spending his first months in office trying to wriggle out of an unacceptable] Question: Has the Iraq War depleted our military and diplomatic capital? Ted Sorensen: We haven’t spent it all. Former Special Counsel to Pres. Finally. He could have continued to push for this conception closer to the December 31 deadline. This would have fit with his administration's often-repeated preferences. went into the SOFA talks intent on obtaining legitimacy for a long-term military presence in Iraq once the Security Council mandate ended. and there is no end in sight. But he didn't. And what have we achieved? Saddam Hussein is gone. and political wrangling going on inside Iraq. But Bush entered the U. As negotiations dragged on. Iraqi women probably have fewer rights today than they had women Saddam Hussein. than they have now when the United States put the Shiia in power. troops entirely contingent upon American assessments of conditions on the ground. Kennedy. We have so messed up that country that I’m not sure even a democratic president can solve it.withdrawal of U.S. as his finest moment in Iraq. We didn’t even have enough troops to secure the arsenals and armories so that the terrorists just robbed all of those weapons. an assumption that the U. and an absolute rejection of an Obama- Iraqi leaders. . troops without any legal mandate to remain in the country and forcing the hand of American negotiators.than his own.S. . withdrawal. . no doubt. “Has the Iraq War depleted our military and diplomatic capital?” 5-22. withdrawal from Iraq.S. Sorenson.S. Whether we stay for 50 years as John McCain may be necessary like Korea. But at that point he bowed to the political realities in the conditions-based aspirational time frame for U. We didn’t even have enough troops to secure the borders and keep the terrorists from pouring in from other countries. and not the surge. including several rounds of upcoming style timeline for withdrawal. They used to be killed every day by stray American bombs. And this. And thus I offer Bush's willingness to sign the SOFA mandating U. is among the reasons why Robert Gates will continue as Secretary of Defense. but we don’t have democracy there. bases and a Korea-style presence for generations.S. But elections and an intensely strong popular Iraqi hostility to the U.S. When the Iraqis insisted on an Obama-style timeline for U. Their tough line was encouraged by Iran. . Iraq inevitably devastates capital – withdrawal can’t Thursday File disengagement from Iraq. and Iraq and agreed to a SOFA which far more closely matched Obama's avowed vision for Iraq -. And here's where I will offer some sincere praise for Bush and his team. Conservatives now like to claim the SOFA as a "Bush-negotiated" success. The Cross-X. . But it also reflected Iraqi domestic considerations. To his credit. or stay for 50 months or weeks. no permanent bases -. but now they’re killed today by other Iraqis. endless invasion and occupation of Iraq.he didn't authorize Ambassador Ryan Crocker to sign off on the deal until after the Presidential election (on November 18). It’s the stupidest blunder in American foreign policy history. .S. Granted. threatening to leave the U.

and his visit to Turkey in April was warmly received. As Princeton scholar Joshua Walker has noted. The political and strategic compasses are pointing to the eventual withdrawal of nuclear weapons from Europe--it's a strategy that certainly fits the disarmament agenda President Barack Obama has outlined.S.4. it would help convince Ankara (and others) of Turkey's value to NATO and have the additional benefit of pulling Ankara into a closer relationship with Washington and Brussels. Ankara is in a position to positively influence Tehran's behavior. efforts there. Doing so requires a key factor that also is essential to paving the way toward withdrawal of U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 48/148 Cross-X.D. with considerations left open for later deployments of mobile ground-based interceptors in Eastern Europe or Turkey. careful diplomacy will be required to improve Thursday File Link – TNWs TNW withdrawal costs tons of diplomatic capital. any removal of the weapons in Turkey would need to happen in concert with efforts to prevent Iran from turning its civil nuclear energy program into a military one. Turkey recently doubled its troop contribution to NATO's Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan--a boon to U. The United States and Russia soon will seek ratification of a follow-on agreement to START. As a result.-Turkish ties and to assuage Turkish security concerns. Turkey would obtain a stronger footing in alliance politics. But to get there. nuclear weapons: improved alliance relations. Project manager at the Ploughshares Fund and a Truman National Security Fellow AND **Research assistant at the Ploughshares Fund and a graduate student at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy. and the United States and its allies should seriously consider Turkish offers to serve as an interlocutor between Iran and the West. given its long-established pragmatic relations and growing economic ties with Iran.S.S. reductions to Russian strategic and nonstrategic nuclear arsenals also would help improve Ankara's peace of mind.] A prescription for withdrawal. Preventing Turkey (and any other country in the region) from acquiring nuclear weapons is critical to international security. By incorporating Ankara into its new European missile defense plans--intended to protect Turkey and other countries vulnerable to Iran's short. all of the administration's positive interactions with Turkey have been beneficial: Washington has supported Turkey's role as a regional energy supplier and encouraged Ankara as it undertakes difficult political reforms and works to resolve regional diplomatic conflicts. Otherwise.. Ship-based Aegis missile systems will be the backbone of the strategy. Professor at the Naval Postgraduate School. Turkey must be fully confident in NATO and U.S.S. Ankara's potential influence with Tehran should not be underestimated. including the U.S. “The status of U. contain its chief security concerns. weapons in Turkey. after which Turkish support for U. And treaty negotiations in pursuit of further reductions to the U. First. Because Russia weighs significantly in Turkish security calculations. This is consistent with a longstanding pattern in which most allies have deemed strategic nuclear matters a US responsibility and have deferred to US judgement about the appropriate . During any such negotiations. security guarantees. Washington would risk compromising Turkey as a NATO ally and key regional partner.-Turkish relationship cooled when Turkey refused to participate in Operation Iraqi Freedom. More largely. Ebsco] Perhaps partly because of improved relations with Russia. in international relations at the University of Southern California (1979). 11-23. In fact.” International Affairs 80. nuclear weapons in Turkey”Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists http://www. and Russian arsenals should involve forward-deployed nuclear weapons.S. Bell & Loehrke. “The US Nuclear Posture Review and the NATO allies. This cooperation could provide the bond with Washington and perception of security that Turkey seeks in the face of a potential Iranian bomb.thebulletin. Obama's election has helped to mend fences.S. 2004 [David S. The U. If used properly.S. nuclear weapons from Turkish soil.S. Turkey actually can play an important role in this complex process. Critically. and foster the necessary conditions for the removal of tactical U. if the United States and European Union task Turkey with a bigger role in the diplomatic back-and-forth with Iran. Ph. allied observers have expressed no noteworthy concerns about the effects of the NPR-mandated reductions in operationally deployed US strategic nuclear warheads on extended deterrence. Yost.and intermediate-range ballistic missiles--Washington could further shore up its military relationship with Turkey. Bush administration. this means intense negotiations to reassure extended deterrence commitments. 2009 [Alexandra and Benjamin. For its part. policy declined through the end of the George W. July.

and in some circumstances more such exceptions could occur. Turkey hosts an estimated 90 B61 gravity bombs at Incirlik Air Base. These doubts have been aggravated whenever Americans have expressed anxieties about US strategic capabilities— as during the ‘bomber gap’ and ‘missile gap’ controversies in the late 1950s and early 1960s.S.thebulletin.S. Washington positioned intermediate-range nuclear missiles and bombers there to serve as a bulwark against the Soviet Union (i. the readiness of NATO's nuclear forces now is measured in months as opposed to hours or days. they argue that the weapons are "an essential political and military link" between NATO members and help maintain alliance cohesion. given the risk of prompt inter. when NATO's top commander at the time. If a debate emerged in the United States about the adequacy of the US strategic force posture in the context of national security (without necessarily considering extended deterrence for allied security). Japan and other beneficiaries of US nuclear guarantees. ICBM vulnerability and ‘grey area’ systems such as the Backfire bomber in the late 1970s and early 1980s. so. Exceptions to this pattern have. allied experts and officials would probably ask questions about the implications for] For more than 40 years. Supposedly. arisen historically.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.S. the United States is obligated to provide and maintain the nuclear weapon capability. and European officials still maintain that the political value of the nuclear weapons is enough to keep them deployed across Europe. too. The Defense Department's 2008 report PDF on nuclear weapons management concurred: "As long as our allies value [the nuclear weapons'] political contribution. Gen. the perceived political commitment of the United States—including its manifest intentions." Removal of TNWs strongly opposed – forces negotiations after the plan. and forty are assigned for delivery by the Turkish Air Force. bases would need to be brought in if Turkey's bombs were ever needed. right? Unfortunately. nuclear weapons in Europe. Roadblocks to removal. the weapons were to be fired as one of the first retaliatory shots. Turkey has been a quiet custodian of U. he was met with fierce political resistance. However. In 2005. Aggressors are more likely to be deterred by NATO's conventional power or the larger strategic forces supporting its nuclear umbrella. Today. meaning nuclear-capable F-16s from other U. the weapons are still deployed as a matter of deterrence. the last time US policy regarding strategic nuclear forces became a significant topic in transatlantic security discussions. In the event of a Soviet assault on Europe. Any Europeans inclined to be worried about the credibility of US extended deterrence in view of the constraints on US strategic nuclear forces imposed by arms control or budgetary limits would probably be influenced by interactions with US experts. however. Guardian.e.) Four years later. policy activists and politicians—as was the case in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Jones. Such a relaxed posture makes clear just how little NATO relies on tactical nuclear weapons for its defense anymore. (In addition to the 90 B61 bombs in Turkey. supported the elimination of U. and the Turkish Air Force is reportedly PDF not certified for NATO nuclear missions. the United States has removed all of its intermediate-range missiles from Turkey and reduced its other nuclear weapons there through gradual redeployments and arms control agreements.S. 2-23-2010 . bombs located at bases in Belgium. Bell & Loehrke. some U. In 49/148 Thursday File structure and level of US strategic nuclear forces. pilots. no permanent nuclear-capable U. In this event. but the crux of deterrence is sustaining an aggressor's perception of guaranteed rapid reprisal--a perception the nuclear bombs deployed in Turkey cannot significantly add to because they are unable to be rapidly launched. But as the Cold War waned. James L. and the Netherlands. So in effect. and the debates about SALT II. and its apparent confidence in the adequacy of its strategic nuclear posture—would probably matter more in reassuring allies than the size of the force and its specific characteristics. European doubts about America’s will to defend its allies. to defend the region against Soviet attack and to influence Soviet strategic calculations). Fifty of these bombs are reportedly PDF assigned for delivery by U. tactical nuclear weapons in Turkey are without military value or purpose. matters of national and international security are never that easy. 11-23.. tactical nuclear weapons. 2009 [Alexandra and Benjamin. Italy. That means removing them from the country should be simple. nuclear weapons in Turkey”Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists http://www.S. In particular. U. did the weapons' strategic value.S. the alliance has been subject to periodic crises of confidence—in essence. Ever since the Soviet Union launched Sputnik in 1957 and developed the world’s first ICBMs. During the Cold War.S. Thus.S. TNW removal will meet with massive controversy – requires tons of diplomatic resources.continental nuclear retaliation from Russia. there are another 110 or so U.S. Germany. “The status of U. Project manager at the Ploughshares Fund and a Truman National Security Fellow AND **Research assistant at the Ploughshares Fund and a graduate student at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy. over the last few decades. fighter wing is based at Incirlik.

chaired by the former US secretary of state Madeleine Albright. Guardian. The function of these systems is to keep the peace and to prevent wars. three At the same time. U. but have quietly opposed moves to withdraw them from the US bases on their soil. but it will significantly strengthen the hand of those in the alliance who are opposed to a German-led initiative to remove the bombs unilaterally.S. "US bombs must stay in Europe. the Guardian has learned. Diplomatic http://www. Nuclear Forces in Europe to Zero? Yes.000 short-range nuclear weapons). 3-30-2010 [Julian Borger. The group's word will not be final. In addition.carnegieendowment. Senior Fellow at German Institute for International and Security Affairs. nuclear presence gives those NATO members participating in nuclear sharing a greater say in nuclear decision making or. last month calling for a debate on the future of the tactical weapons. the Netherlands. The 11 experts will suggest that the bombs only be removed as part of a new treaty with Russia. and foreign ministers from the five countries delivered a letter to the Nato secretary general. which has an estimated 4. Italy and Turkey. which is confronted by a dilemma over the future of short-range US nuclear weapons in Europe. "You cannot get rid of them without reciprocity.cfm? fa=view&id=22533&prog=zgp&proj=znpp] there are a number of political reasons for not entirely foregoing U. In particular. more access to information. They have been virulently opposed to the removal of the weapons which they perceive as a guarantee of a US presence in Europe against Russian aggression. Luxembourg and Norway for its stance. further points need to be taken into consideration. Nato clings to the outmoded notion that the 200 or so gravity bombs in five European countries are a necessary deterrent (against Russia. the group of experts. Until now.S. nuclear forces in Europe at this point in time. have been silent on the issue in recent months. The status quo has prevailed with the US saying it is waiting for an allied request to remove the B61 bombs from Germany. at least. these political factors should not be neglected. Eastern European and Baltic countries are also uneasy about removing what they see as a symbol of America's preparedness to protect them against attack. 2008 [Oliver.000 tactical nuclear weapons." a member of the group said. Thranert. however. “Burying Nuclear Relics of the cold war” http://www. Concern over the B61 stockpile in Europe was heightened by a security breach two months ago when protesters managed to break in to an American base in Belgium where up to 20 of the bombs are thought to be the Netherlands. Italy and Turkey. which play host to most of the B61 stockpile.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. More ev. . But this has never happened. mostly on its western] It's decision time for the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. At least some NATO partners continue to value this. lexis] A Nato advisory group helping to draft a new strategy for the military alliance will recommend that US nuclear bombs stay in Europe. the U.S. nuclear forces in Europe and nuclear sharing with Alliance partners demonstrate a shared risk within NATO and binds America to the old continent. In a report due on 1 May. More ev – negotiations necessary – allies oppose removal without Russian reciprocation. They remain particularly interested in a strong nuclear deterrent vis-à-vis Russia and Iran. will say the roughly 200 remaining American B61 bombs on European soil should not be unilaterally 50/148 Thursday File [Anne Penketh. Anders Fogh But Not Yet”. which has an estimated 2.S. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. the alliance has chosen to ignore calls for change and has eschewed public debate. “U. Nato advisers say". Moreover. Germany won the support of Belgium. Belgium. In order to avoid yet another split in NATO on a crucial issue. partly because of resistance from some former Soviet bloc states within Nato.

do? load=detay&link=174286&bolum=100 According to the US-based Arms Control the Middle East and the Mediterranean. Italy.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 51/148 Cross-X. At this stage Turkish diplomatic sources decline to comment on what Ankara's policy will be if NATO presses and finally agrees on a unanimous Kibaroğlu.” Today’s Thursday File Link – Turkey Hundreds of tactical nuclear weapons remain in NATO non-nuclear states. 4/4/09). *****Internal Links***** . Second. Sariibrahimoğlu ’09 (Lale. an associate professor at Ankara's Bilkent University and an expert on arms control issues. in an article he had published by the Routledge publishing house in December 2005 under the headline "Isn't it decision to withdraw the weapons from Turkish soil. Kibaroğlu. which also possesses an independent nuclear arsenal. an estimated 480 tactical nuclear weapons remain deployed in five NATO non-nuclear-weapon states (Belgium." gives an in-depth analysis of the rationale behind the Turkish reluctance over the idea to scrap US nukes on its territory. based on their threat analysis.e. Officials have understandable arguments. Kibaroğlu states in his article that the attitude of Turkish officials toward US nuclear weapons deployed in Turkey for over four decades has been static. “Turkey to face pressure over US nukes on its soil. too. are for maintaining those weapons on Turkish soil to continue their deterrence capabilities in the region.. the Netherlands and Turkey) and in the United Kingdom. as to why these weapons should be retained in Turkey. which includes the Balkans. Germany. i. and Turkish officials have no plans to request the withdrawal. Turkey sees the US as the backbone of deterrence in the region and does not favor the idea of scrapping the nukes from its soil.todayszaman. told Today's Zaman that Turkish decision makers. including Turkey. But Mustafa Time to Say Farewell to Nukes in Turkey?. both the political and the military leadership. Canada and Greece ended their participation in nuclear sharing. under NATO nuclear-sharing arrangements. http://www.

'" is perhaps her toughest test yet as the nation's top diplomat.recent events in Egypt and certainly in that broader region . 2011.S.Dip Cap Finite – Egypt Egypt has taken full focus of US diplomacy. Although tensions had cooled somewhat in recent months. Associated Press – 2/2 (Staff. Now it is becoming reality. Bad timing for a tough test It Diplomatic focus is shifting to deal with the Egyptian crisis. Clinton referred to the unrest gripping the Arab world in emphasizing the importance of U. CNN Senior State Department Producer. where she said the volume of false claims about the United States makes WASHINGTON (AP) -responding difficult." She said U.remind us all how crucial it is to have top-notch leadership on the ground and how quickly the ground can shift under our feet. "civilian power. more open to technology. which were in free fall after a push for an Israeli settlement freeze reached a dead end. 2011. diplomacy in global hot spots. more open to the demands of the young. innovative and accountable than ever before. The events trade-off with other issues. http://www. talking about the need for countries to become more democratic. Feb 2. . "What's going on today . World powers just concluded a fresh round of nuclear talks with Iran that produced no meaningful movement. from the fragile states of Afghanistan and Iraq to Pakistan. Clinton said officials would have to accept that positions and resources would need to be shifted to where they are needed most. Labott – 2/16 (Elise Labott.html?iref=allsearch) CJC "There were a first few moments of wonderment and then she said.S. Clinton was impatient to stop careering from crisis to crisis on the peninsula and engage Pyongyang in a meaningful way that both calmed the situation with South Korea and moved North Korea toward abandoning its nuclear killing four people." Clinton told the gathering of diplomats at the State Department.S. saying Wednesday the recent developments in Egypt and the Middle East demonstrate the critical need for America's global leadership. and his ouster could Thursday File 2NC Ext .ap. February 16. she has traveled the globe. Clinton's counselor and chief of staff. if not kill. The two countries exchanged artillery fire in November after North Korea shelled a South Korean island. recalled Cheryl Mills. and the Obama administration is struggling over how to respond. North and South Korea have been on a razor's edge for months.S. 'We have to dive in. For two years. diplomacy needed to be more nimble.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 52/148 Cross-X. the administration's ambitious goal of achieving Palestinian statehood by the end of the year.sweep/index. Speaking to an audience of nearly every American ambassador.cnn. SITE=NYMID&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT) CJC Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton stressed the need for stronger U. Events elsewhere in the world aren't looking any more promising. Clinton had hoped to start the year reviving peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians. There is a tradeoff resources are limited. “Clinton: Critical time for American leadership”. The timing could not be worse. diplomacy?”. Mubarak's support in the effort was critical. “Can Clinton remake U.

Twitter and other forums to better project the .S. where she said the volume of false claims about the United States makes responding difficult. from the fragile states of WASHINGTON (AP) — Afghanistan and Iraq to Pakistan. http://www. Clinton said ambassadors needed to adapt to a "fast-changing world" that includes theft. saying Wednesday the recent developments in Egypt and the Middle East demonstrate the critical need for America's global leadership. "What's going on today — recent events in Egypt and certainly in that broader region — remind us all how crucial it is to have top-notch leadership on the ground and how quickly the ground can shift under our feet. Referring to the release of confidential U. Speaking to an audience of nearly every American ambassador. Associated Press – 2/2 /11 ( Thursday File 2NC Ext – Dip Cap Finite – Middle East Diplomatic efforts must be focused on hot spots to deal with those crises." Clinton told the gathering of diplomats at the State docId=185e3876cccf45b782bfa9245e30be45) CJC Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton stressed the need for stronger U. "We are all in unchartered territory. Clinton said officials would have to accept that positions and resources would need to be shifted to where they are needed most. protests and technological developments that have the capacity to change the lives of millions of people.S. "civilian power. Feb 2. She urged ambassadors to embrace the potential of Facebook. innovative and accountable than ever before. diplomacy in global hot spots. diplomatic cables by the WikiLeaks website. Clinton referred to the unrest gripping the Arab world in emphasizing the importance of U.S.S. 2011.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 53/148 Focus on other issues trades-off with our ability to focus on the unrest in the Middle East." Clinton said." She said U. diplomacy needed to be more nimble. “Clinton: Critical time for American leadership”.

Montana. As Schaefer writes. they will stretch the resources necessary to deal with traditional international and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. and ensuring access to foreign economies (Holmes and Moore 1996. Fall. it is critically important that the United States focus its diplomatic efforts on issues of paramount importance to the nation. J. missions and representatives is essential in articulating U.” http://www.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 54/148 Cross-X. concerns—it is critically important that the United States focus its diplomatic efforts on issues of paramount importance to the nation. . Traditionally.perc. As countries must watch over more and more issues arising in the international policy arena. . xi-xvii). “Because diplomatic currency is finite . “The Greening of Foreign Policy. 46) writes. Diplomatic capital is finite – each new issue trades off with another one. page 46] Diplomacy is the first option in addressing potential threats to U. .S. As countries must watch over more and more issues arising in the international policy arena. The daily conduct of diplomacy through U." Diplomatic capital is finite – issues trade off. Fellow in the Center for International Trade at Heritage Foundation. The Greening of U.S. lessening the focus on other issues and even creating conflicts between issues.pdf] Greater international environmental regulation can increase international tension. lessening the focus on other issues and even creating conflicts between issues. Foreign Policy. 2001 [Terry and Bishop. supporting our allies. national interests and expressing U. securing vital resources.S. securing vital resources. Stanford University. Each new issue in the bag weighs it down.S. "Because diplomatic currency is finite . Schaeffer. they will stretch the resources necessary to deal with traditional international issues. Traditionally. Bozeman. Each new issue in the bag weighs it down. Int'l L. foreign countries and officials cannot be expected to endlessly support and promote U. such as the sale of ballistic missiles or border conflicts between nations. . Foreign policy is a bag of goods that includes issues from free trade to arms trading to human rights. . 427) CJC Foreign policy is a bag of goods that includes issues from free trade to arms trading to human rights. supporting our allies.S. Diplomatic capital is finite – plan prevents focus on more important issues. these priorities have been opposing hostile domination of key geographic regions. As Schaefer (2000. 2000 [Brett. Anderson & Thursday File 2NC Ext – Dip Cap Finite Diplomatic capital is finite – each new issue trades off with existing issues Anderson & Grewell – 01 (Terry L. Increased environmental regulations could cause countries to lessen their focus on international threats of violence such as the sale of ballistic missiles or border conflicts between nations. these priorities had been opposing hostile domination of key geographic regions. Anderson is executive director of Political Economy Research Center ("PERC")The Center for Free Market Environmentalism. and ensuring access to foreign economies. it is critically important that the United States focus its diplomatic efforts on issues of paramount importance to the nation. 2001 2 Chi. Increased environmental regulations could cause countries to lessen their focus on international threats of violence. Bishop Grewell is a research associate with PERC. J. Because diplomatic currency is finite—clearly. concerns and priorities to foreign nations. interests and eliciting cooperation and support for those interests abroad.

org/pdf/ps20. they will stretch the resources necessary to deal with traditional international issues. it is critically important that the United States focus its diplomatic efforts on issues of paramount importance to the nation. Bishop. December 2000. supporting our allies. Foreign policy is a bag of goods that includes issues from free trade to arms trading to human rights. Executive Director of the Property and Environment Research Center. the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies. lessening the focus on other issues and even creating conflicts between issues. and ensuring access to foreign Thursday File Anderson and Grewell 2000 (Terry L. Traditionally. He is a graduate of Stanford University. “Because diplomatic currency is finite . and Northwestern Law School.pdf) Greater international environmental regulation can increase international tension. 46) writes.. As Schaefer (2000. these priorities have been opposing hostile domination of key geographic regions. .Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 55/148 Cross-X. As countries must watch over more and more issues arising in the international policy arena. PERC Policy Series: PS-20.perc. . J.” . http://www. former research associate for PERC. “The Greening of Foreign Policy”. Increased environmental regulations could cause countries to lessen their focus on international threats of violence such as the sale of ballistic missiles or border conflicts between nations. securing vital resources. Each new issue in the bag weighs it down.

CT. DoD will continue to improve key capabilities that support strategic communication. Together. the effects of these activities support national objectives. . The Quadrennial Defense Review in 2010 (QDR Report prepared for Congress. Strategic communication is essential in COIN. and DoD works particularly closely with the Department of State to support State’s core role in communicating with foreign governments and international publics.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 56/148 Cross-X. public affairs. Effective strategic communication requires close collaboration across interagency lines at all stages. Effective strategic communication also requires the orchestration of multiple lines of operation. where population and stakeholder beliefs and perceptions are crucial to our success. and public diplomacy and engagement. government's integrated civilian-military efforts to interact effectively with a variety of audiences and stakeholders. Chief among these are policy implementation. force employment. information operations. and stability operations.S. 2010) As part of the Thursday File 2NC Ext – Diplomatic Capital Key – Plan Cost The plan would have to be spun to control perceptions – this requires extensive diplomatic focus. February 1. and where adversaries often enjoy the advantage of greater local knowledge and calibrate their activities to achieve sophisticated information objectives. civil affairs.

to WikiLeaks disclosures of diplomatic diplomats Wednesday that "we are all in uncharted territory. In a doomsday scenario. Clinton noted that the U. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told a gathering of U." Clinton called for the unprecedented "Global Chiefs of Mission" meeting several months ago. Clinton added: "There are too many forces at work. they obviously must be moderates — so we can work with these guys!" Majority rule without liberty amounts to the tyranny of the majority — a chilling prospect in the Mideast.S.egypt/index. recent events in Egypt and certainly in that broader region. the . however. And how quickly that ground can shift under our feet. CNN Foreign Affairs Correspondent. Regardless of the outcome. quietly helping Egypt's military stay in power for as long as it takes to ensure that Mubarak's successor isn't an Islamist enabler. policy and interests in the region will largely depend on who ends up in power. Investors Business Daily – 2/11 (Editorial Staff. 2011. February 2." Pointing to a range of challenges. 2011. US diplomacy is stretched to the brink and need full focus to deal with a situation that can change quickly. was not able to attend the State Department meeting." she said. with what's going on today. Nobody expects that worst-case nightmare to come through.S." And he exposes the preposterous State Department delusion that because alQaida operatives "figure the Brothers are soft.investors. "From the theft of confidential cables to 21st century protest movements. ambassadors from around the world." Even as news reports Wednesday showed protesters clashing on the streets of Cairo.diplomatic. not just in Egypt but in the host of other countries on the verge of transformation. Margaret The meeting was scheduled for early February. “Clinton warns of 'uncharted territory' in wake of Egypt unrest”. ambassador to Egypt.cnn. But it's the only "democracy" the Brotherhood will back. McCarthy warns that Effective diplomacy is critical to deal with the Egyptian crisis. The U. February 2.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 57/148 Cross-X. from congressional pressure to cut the State Department budget and foreign aid. “Editorial: Obama Botched Egypt — Here's How To Fix It”.S. (they) remind us all of how crucial it is to have top-notch leadership on the ground.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS %3A+Politics%29) CJC In the midst of mass uprisings and historic change in the Middle East. Too many cross currents and some of which we are only beginning to understand. should now make the best of a bad situation. bringing together U. That could even trigger a most dangerous war between Israel and Iran. CNN – 2/2 (Elise Labott and Josh Thursday File Military K2 Secular Transition US must support the military to ensure there is time for political parties to get organized to prevent a rise of the Muslim" "As we see. http://www.S. Clinton said "we have a tough road ahead. killing critical diplomatic and military relationships. because "we Washington (CNN) -figured it would be quiet. to development breakthroughs that have the potential to change millions of lives. we are all in uncharted territory.challenges/index.S. not a culture of governance. Tunisia and even Jordan could come to power. extremist Islamic factions in Egypt. forcing the closing of the Suez Canal and allowing Iran fill the vacuum. Dougherty – 2/2 (Jill Dougherty. CNN Staff." US must ensure a peaceful transition now to prevent the unrest from rising creating a scenario for radicalization that would trigger war between Israel and Iran. Egypt. democracy is a tool for acquiring power. http://www. she joked.cnn.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS %3A+Politics%29) CJC The future of U. Turning serious at the end of her remarks. “The Sweep: The risk of democracy in the Middle East”.htm) CJC "For Islamists. 02/11/2011. http://www.

Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. That could give way to a permanent resistance that creates even more pressure for 58/148 Thursday File Obama administration has concluded that it must try to be on the right side of history. further radicalizes the Arab street and creates even more anger at the United States. which is seems to be the catchphrase of the week for Middle East analysts. possibly becoming even more oppressive. . Supporting the status quo could embolden leaders to hold on.

but western diplomats in Cairo said they had no independent information about the state of his current condition. the diplomat said. it remains unclear exactly what part the army will play in its role as the transitional government that Egyptians have demanded should lead to elections by September. Mubarak has flown twice in as many years to Germany for treatment of an undisclosed medical condition. Embassy. A western diplomat said that senior army officers. Although former President Mubarak ceded power to the army. Myriad youthful opposition groups have been holding almost round-the-clock meetings to craft and present a unified statement of their demands for reform to the military. political journalist. In Washington. “Egyptian Army Calls Up Military Reservists to Help Keep Peace”. and other strategic facilities throughout the country. Egypt -in the face of overwhelming numbers of protesters throughout Cairo and other Egyptian cities. The call-up appeared to be related to the army’s continuing need to maintain stability in the absence of the civilian police. one diplomat suggested. however. http://www. the state-run television center. Since then. A western diplomat said that it was believed that former president Mubarak was still in his residence at the Egyptian seaside resort of Sharm Thursday File A2: Military Not Relinquish Power Diplomats are working with the military now.” the diplomat said.foxnews. whose elections last fall have been widely denounced by domestic and international critics as fraudulent. including Secretary of Defense Field Marshall Mohammed Tantawi. Egypt’s autocratic ruler for almost 30 years. added that the military had still not disclosed when the three-decade-old emergency law granting the government the right to arrest and hold people without formal charges or judicial oversight would be lifted. They don’t want to rule indefinitely. There have been labor strikes across the country. February 14. the Egyptian military officials leading the country through an unchartered period of political transition are stressing that they do not want to govern Egypt indefinitely or. Most of Egypt’s civilian police officers fled their posts on January 28 CAIRO. On Saturday. the epicenter of the extraordinary revolution that has transformed Egypt and the political map of the Middle East. 2011. military police in their traditional camouflage uniforms and red berets have been guarding the CJC The Egyptian Army today called up thousands of military reservists as soldiers cleared Tahrir Square. Egypt’s ambassador said this morning in a television interview that Mubarak’s health was deteriorating. Miller – 2/14 (Judith Miller. government ministries. the military government announced that it would abide by all treaties. Diplomats. had repeatedly indicated that the army has been acting in good faith and has assured foreign governments that it does not seek a longterm role in governing the country.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 59/148 Cross-X. . On Sunday. In a recent meeting with western diplomats. It also dissolved Egypt’s parliament. apparently including its long-standing peace accord with Israel. The officers. it issued yet another communiqué announcing that it had suspended the constitution that has been structured to give Egypt’s president almost unlimited terms in office and authority and inhibits political opposition.S. The call-up also reflects continuing political tensions in the country following the forced resignation of President Hosni Mubarak. be responsible for Egypt’s crushing problems. which Egyptian sources have identified as stomach cancer. including by the police. who demonstrated on Monday demanding higher wages and better working conditions. have been stressing that “they are going to do what the people want.

Quandt – 2/2 (William B. If the Egyptian military acts soon — and in accord with the sentiment of the Egyptian people — they will emerge as a strong. In Tunisia as well. Now that military is the key to Egypt’s near-term future. but the military was actually given guarantees by the new Chilean democrats that its corporate interests . Whether it falls this week or in coming months. . with a few bumpy moments. Now we need to think of it as a partner in helping to consolidate Egypt’s democratic February 2.cfm?uuid=1690BD3B49D6-43ED-ADDD-DE8AD70C9948) CJC So. But rather that it can be the guarantor of a peaceful transition to a new.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 60/148 Cross-X. should be on the phone with their Egyptian comrades to offer assurances of aid and support if they choose to stand against a radical Islamic regime.realclearpolitics. Since 1979. as is most likely. Quandt is a politics professor at the University of Virginia. Egypt's immediate future will be decided by the Egyptian ary. the hated dictator Gen. In Chile." and "In the Words of Our Enemies. Not that the new president of Egypt should. has looked to the Egyptian military as a partner primarily on regional security and anti-terrorism issues.W. or will. And the experienced former ambassador to Egypt. And there is nothing America can do to prevent that. perhaps CIA Director Leon Panetta to their counterparts might help. With one exception.S. if the president permits them. Bush. a discredited dictator was eased out (with American urging) and the military stayed on to provide stability for the new democracies. He is the author of several bestselling books including "Inside the Asylum. and only that. “Time for Obama to press Mubarak”. leaving a vacuum that allowed for a great deal of post-revolutionary violence and radicalization. the U. the kind of bond that can only be achieved by serving side by side in training and military exercises. the United States has completely reequipped and trained a new. And we have paid for it – about $1 billion per year. Egypt . The key now is not a lot of public statements from the president. He served on the National Security Council dealing with Middle East affairs in the Nixon and Carter administrations.and even Pinochet’s person – would be respected as long as they did not block the transition to democracy and limited their role to upholding security. could weigh in as well — with the simple message that the prolonged transition envisaged by Mubarak does not seem viable. But a few calls from Defense Secretary Robert Gates.politico. “Egypt's Future Will Be Decided by the Military”. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mike Mullen. similarly in the Philippines and Indonesia. Turkey’s military. The crisis needs to be brought to an end soon. we seem to be witnessing an encouraging example of the military helping with the transition to a new order.S-style Thursday File Dip. when I was serving in the Carter administration.S. In the past. it is time for President Barack Obama to take the next step — to cash in on the close military-tomilitary relationship that has been forged between the United States and Egypt over the years. Diplomacy with the military is key to avoiding extremist from taking over the government. would be an effective American influence on Egypt's immediate future.may pass into the radical Islamic sphere. efforts to apply gentle pressure must now be followed by a more forceful message to those who can get Mubarak’s attention in a way that we have not. Many of our most senior generals have longstanding relationships with their Egyptian comrades. If. K2 Transition – Military Diplomacy with Egyptian military is critical to ensuring a stable transition. emerge from its ranks. Augusto Pinochet was ousted. February 2. the military remains on the sidelines and allows a radical regime to take power.html) CJC It is not clear that Mubarak's regime will survive the week. And that can only happen if Mubarak steps down. U. 2011. Obama has said enough and is just about on target. respected force in the new Egypt. http://dyn. This is not an unfamiliar role for militaries in moments of transition. He actively participated in the Camp David peace negotiations in 1978. The military is the only institution in Egypt that can convince him to do so – and assure him the dignified retirement from power that he apparently craves. 2011. http://www. Babbin – 2/2 (Jed Babbin served as a Deputy Undersecretary of Defense under George H.". U. That. So Egypt need not turn out like Iran — where the shah’s military split and went down with Turkey before it . Frank Wisner. These officers. has played such a role. democratic order.

FEBRUARY 3. The military. and not to crackdown on the protesters. Mubarak aside. has been exerting pressure on the Egyptian military not to take sides. He is the author of several bestselling books including "Inside the Asylum. “Egypt's Future Will Be Decided by the Military”." and "In the Words of Our Enemies.wsj.html? mod=rss_Politics_And_Policy) CJC Thursday File Diplomacy with Egyptian military is critical to a stable transition government. took over. the U. an Egypt expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and an informal White House adviser. the first real peace agreement between Israel and a formerly-hostile neighbor. fervently attempting to ally Arabs in a unified front against Israel. Babbin – 2/2 (Jed Babbin served as a Deputy Undersecretary of Defense under George H. even if only to quell the fighting. experts said. http://online. Since last week. leaving it to the police and security forces to quell violence between anti-government protesters and Mubarak supporters. Staff Writers. sees the Egyptian military as likely the only institution that can guide a smooth and inclusive transition. Israel." Ms. Pan-Arabism has since disappeared except from the mind of Libya's Muammar Qaddafi.S. Some U. Sadat was assassinated by Muslim radicals in 1981 because of his willingness to make peace with Israel in the Camp David agreement. The Mubarak regime is a lineal descendant of Gamel Abdel Nasser's. is watching what happens with the demonstrations. . Dunne ary. who seized power in 1952. to prevent Egypt from being subordinated by its Islamic neighbors. When Nasser died in 1970. 2011.". likewise. is in a difficult spot with the protestors. many of whom have critiqued the Obama Michele administration's stutter-step embrace of regime change in Egypt.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 61/148 Cross-X. Nasser was a pan-Arabist. Mubarak swept into power at Sadat's death. Only the Egyptian military can ensure that the new government is not radical. Two factors will control the result of the crisis that now envelops the Mubarak regime. said the White House needs to convince the Egyptian army to step in. U. officials believe for now the military it will stay on the sidelines. The second is the efforts of Iran and Syria . http://www. one of his protégés.html) CJC The only stabilizing force is the Egyptian military which has the power. officials believe the violence would worsen if the military intervened. February 2.realclearpolitics.S. Bush. Wall Street Journal – 2/3 (JONATHAN WEISMAN And ADAM turn Egypt into another Syria or a satellite of Iran. The U. and the parallel Iranian goal of establishing a Muslim caliphate hasn't taken hold in Egypt yet because of the three men who have ruled it for nearly sixty years. "Nobody wants to be the first to make the hard decisions. It was Sadat who braved the Arab currents to sign the Camp David Accords. The first is the Egyptian military. leading to the 1967 Arab-Israeli war. “White House Charts a New Plan”. however.S. Anwar alSadat.S. and the demonstrators are waiting for Washington to push Mr.W. and perhaps the motivation.independently and in combination with Egyptian Islamists . restore order and set up the new government.

reaction/index. 2011.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 62/148 Thursday File Sustained Diplomacy Checks Extremist Rise Continued diplomacy will be critical to ensure democratic elections and prevent extremist take over.S. will come in the months ahead as U. policymakers try to prevent Egypt from following the path Iran took after 1979.cnn. Rubin said. when the fall of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi led to the rise of the fundamentalist regime still in power today. but at the same pushing to ensure armed extremist militias aren't allowed to claim the mantle of democratic legitimacy. The U." Rubin said. CNN – 2/3 (CNN Wire Staff. . “Official: U.S.S. February http://www. Egypt talk ways to 'move' political transition forward”. needs to make clear the Egyptian elections happen "come hell or high water.obama..html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss %2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS%3A+Politics%29) CJC The real difficulty.

part of a wave of change by authoritarian governments across the Middle East seeking to head off Egypt-style unrest. in talks over possible Mubarak departure”. “ feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Amid concerns that a wave of protests that erupted in Tunisia and then Egypt could spread to other Middle Eastern capitals. Continued pressure on other allies for reform is critical to checking back spillover.S.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 63/148 Cross-X. ally -. Feb 3 Thursday File Dip Cap Checks Spillover Diplomatic capital is not limited to Egypt in the crisis. Clinton spoke to Jordan's King Abdullah -.another close U. http://www. . Reuters – 2/3 (Steve Holland and Susan Cornwell Staff.on Thursday to discuss Egypt and to express support for his own recent reforms. The White House said Obama also told Saleh it is imperative that Yemen take forceful action against al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Obama phoned Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh to follow up his pledges of reform with concrete actions.reuters.

The United States has little to no capacity to produce oil. these wars would most likely involve nuclear weapons." the U. The have the influence necessary to support the transition. Among those who appreciate that the world's petroleum resources are finite. few understand the proximity of the crisis. With five offical nations having nuclear weapons.S. Most of us have no thoughts about the issue other than the current price of a gallon of gas. The United States currency will become useless and will have no way of securing reserves.reuters. the government would go to no ends to secure more. and the mission has been especially busy in the last several days to help convey our strong support for an orderly transition. the retired head of the U. and many other economies into a deep.html) six in ten surveyed by Pew believe that the economic situation will be better soon and that the recession is only temporary.S. If the United States stopped getting foreign oil. "Our embassy in Cairo maintains an active outreach to a wide range of political and civil society representatives in Cairo. Retired 30-year CIA analyst who has been following the peak oil story since 1999. Nearly everyone will admit that continuing oil shortages and that high (above $100 a barrel) oil prices would be devastating to the prospects for economic recovery and that persisting very high (say above $200 a barrel) oil prices would send the U. referring to U. increasing oil prices and eventually oil shortages within the next few years are as inevitable as the sunrise. Editor of the daily Peak Oil News and the weekly Peak Oil Review. C.S.S. "One such contact was between the ambassador and Mohamed ElBaradei today. the U. extend the Hilliker evidence. Once one nation launches a nuclear weapon. if there were a war with any other major power over Thursday File A2: No Influence U." it CAIRO (Reuters) added in the statement sent to Reuters in Cairo.S. Ambassador Margaret Scobey. Reuters – 2/1 (“U. Extinction Broward 9 ((Member of Triond) http://newsflavor. http://www. The problem is that few are willing to consider seriously the accumulating evidence that Interestingly. A. one of the most highly respected analysts of peak oil issues in the United States. there would of course be feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC The U. This alone vividly illustrates how poorly the true state of the global economic situation is understood and the size of the shock that most of us are in for. The Peak Oil Crisis: A Mid-Year Review.S. has demanded President Hosni Mubarak quit office and said he was ready to play a role in any shift to a democratic system in Egypt. it is totatlly dependent on foreign oil.N. http://www.fcnp. like Russia or China. ambassador to Cairo made contact with prominent Egyptian political activist Mohamed ElBaradei on Tuesday to discuss a political transition in Egypt. envoy in Egypt spoke with ElBaradei: statement” Feb 1. nuclear watchdog. The first thing that will happen after an economic collapse will be war over resources. State Department said in a statement. and with five or more countries with nuclear weapons *****Impact Scenarios***** ***Suez Canal Shell*** . FNCP. Department of State – Harvard/Berkley 64/148 Cross-X.S. Mohamed AD: 7-7-09 )ET Now its time to look at the consequences of a failing world economy. long-lasting depression. 2011. closing the Suez Canal would cause oil price shocks and these Rising oil prices destroy the economy Whipple 7/14/2010 (Tom. and four more likely to have them there could be major consequences of another world war. State Department is busy brokering a peaceful transition to democracy in Egypt now.

Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 65/148 Thursday File there would most likely be a world nuclear war. . The risk is so high that acting to save the economy is the most important issue facing us in the 21st century.

The broad Standard & Poor's 500 Index closed up 0. Staff. urges Egypt's Mubarak do more. . access to affordable energy supplies.reuters. Egypt's Suez Canal allows the transport of crude oil and liquefied natural gas bound for the U.S.S.S. Reuters – 1/31 (Steve Holland and Andrew Quinn. National security aides at the White House were monitoring the effect the unrest and uncertainty in Egypt may have on oil and financial markets. Gibbs said no disruptions had been reported in the Suez Canal. envoy in Cairo”. Brent crude oil futures surged to $101 a barrel.77 percent. stocks rose as investors focused on the expanding U. U.286. If the canal were closed it would create price shocks and market disruption. Senator Jeff Bingaman.S. a 28month high. and other countries. warned on Monday that the escalating protests in Egypt could affect U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 66/148 Cross-X. satisfied the situation in Egypt would not escalate into widespread violence or Thursday File Close Suez Canal = Price Shocks Egypt crisis is raising oil prices for fear of closing the Suez Canal. chairman of the U.12. 2011. as anxieties rose that protests in Egypt could spark instability across the Middle East and disrupt oil shipments through the Suez Canal. economy and rising earnings. Senate's energy CJC The crisis is taking its toll on oil markets. Jan 31. at 1. http://www. “U.

S.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 67/148 Cross-X. . but Pumphrey said the risk could compel individual shippers to slow down shipments there or choose alternate. For now. February 1. no evidence suggests that either of those avenues will be blocked.nationaljournal. “Egyptian Unrest Leaves U. The Suez Canal and Sumed pipeline serve as vital transportation arteries for global oil shipments. Harder – 2/1 (Amy Harder reports on energy and the environment for National Journal and moderates an expert blog on the topic as well. longer routes. Over an Imported Barrel”. CJC Egypt is in a unique position in the oil supply chain even though it produces only 700.000 barrels a day. Thursday File Egypt K2 Oil Markets Egypt key to global Oil flows.

both internally and throughout the Suez Canal area. U. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Mike Mullen." . John Kirby said the chairman "expressed confidence in the Egyptian military's ability to provide for their country's security.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 68/148 Cross-X. and Mullen spokesman Capt. Adm.washingtonpost. 2011. Gen. had his second conversation this week with Lt. Sami Enan.S.html?hpid=topnews) CJC Concern was also growing about possible interference in traffic along the Suez Canal. http://www. Washington Post – 2/2 (Karen DeYoung Washington Post Staff Thursday File Egypt – Military K2 Suez Canal Egyptian military can prevent the closing of the Suez Canal with US influence. February 2. “As crisis deepens in through which much of the West's imported oil travels. 'can't dictate events'”. the Egyptian military's chief of staff.

Inspired by the events elsewhere in the Sunni Muslim world. every recession except one was preceded by a sharp rise in oil prices.8 million barrels. there will be no one to save the neighborhood. To curtail their opposition. Saudi Arabia is the oil market’s only firefighter. It isn’t. Luft – 2/3 (Gal Luft is executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security. 2011. Egypt produces less than 1 percent of the world’s oil.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 69/148 Cross-X. Saudi Arabia not only is the world’s largest exporter. travels daily. And not even because it controls the Suez Canal. But if the fire station is on Thursday File Impact Magnifier: Saudi Arabia Continued instability in Egypt risks revolt and uprising in Saudi Arabia causing megaoil shocks causing the global economy to nose dive. experts have warned about the fragility of the House of Saud. Not because Egypt is a major oil exporter. In other words. . Egypt is relevant to the oil market because it may be a bellwether for the disgruntled masses in Saudi Arabia.politico. And instability in that oil kingdom is how mega-oil shocks are made. through which 1. http://www. it also holds 70 percent of the world’s spare production capacity. If the Saudis should decide to emulate their Egyptian brethren. In today’s February 3. “What if Saudi Arabia erupts?”. Since World War II. capable of supplying the market when others falter. this social contract could face a challenge at the worst possible time — when the House of Saud’s top echelon is ill and geriatric. Saudi monarchs have placated their subjects with cradle-to-grave. studies show. A new oil shock would cause our economy to nose-dive back into a recession.html#ixzz1Cz60q1YQ) CJC The demonstrations in Egypt and elsewhere in the Arab world could well be the harbinger of an excruciating oil crisis. about 5 percent of the overall global tanker trade. For decades. a new oil crisis might be upon us. petrodollar-funded entitlement programs. while taming the Wahhabi establishment through charitable contributions to religious institutions worldwide. this could be as devastating as a second heart attack is for a fragile patient just recovering from a first one.

That leverage must now be used skillfully to assist and ensure a fair election that places a legitimate government in place. the Egyptian military has suspended parliament and the country's CJC The euphoric moment is passing. As disliked as Mubarak became. In Defense of Primacy. And Egypt offers an opportunity for soft power — thanks to the courage and resilience of Egyptians who rallied peacefully for almost a month to prompt Mubarak's departure. The totality of that equation of power answers the first issue. it's critical to acknowledge that Egypt is not Iraq. what would have worked — or was needed — in one country would not automatically apply to another. The ouster of Hosni Mubarak from power last week opens an opportunity to position the Egyptian "revolution" as a soft power showcase. and offshore balancers. Military leaders say they will run the country until elections are held in six months. who want a modified form of selective engagement that would have the United States abandon its landpower presence abroad in favor of relying on airpower and retrenchment. Barring some disaster or tremendous folly. 2011. And.S. The price and risks of primacy are reported in newspapers every day. So the debate revolves around the desirability of maintaining American primacy. however. Such is the case with international relations and diplomacy — cookie-cutter. who want no foreign military commitments. owing to aid and training the past few decades. And certainly as an alternative to the Iraq model employed by the George W. With few exceptions. even those who advocate retrenchment acknowledge this.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 70/148 Cross-X. It is the Egyptian people who are the true heroes of this peaceful uprising. and can't be allowed to be lost. — rather than overt force to achieve U. who want U. must be avoided. either because the United States lacks the power to maintain its primacy and should withdraw from its global commitments. The National Interest.1 Those arguing for a grand strategy of retrenchment are a diverse lot." Remember that term? Remember the soft power vs. US hegemony solves all problems Thayer 06 Associate Professor in the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies at Missouri State University [ Thursday File ***Leadership Shell*** A. objectives. economic and soft power capabilities. February 15. military commitments to centers of economic might. and they are more than justified to feel vindicated. hard power debate of recent years? The soft power phrase became vogue in the aftermath of serious divisions over the war in Iraq.S. Many claim a sense of pride that they achieved their aims non-violently. it would be a profound strategic mistake that would lead to far greater instability and war in the world. that will remain the case for the foreseeable future.sun-sentinel. Proponents of retrenchment focus a great deal on the costs of U. They include isolationists. Failure would undermine US soft-power moving forward. he rates nowhere near the likes of a brutal despot like Saddam Hussein. soft power”. The United States has overwhelming military capabilities and wealth in comparison to other states or likely potential alliances. In the aftermath of Mubarak's resignation. http://articles. If the United States adopted such a strategy. Those arguing against primacy claim that the United States should retrench. “Egypt 'revolution' opens opportunity for U. etc. one could argue that soft power's limits were sadly on display during the protests in Iran last year. in fact.S. Far from it. The United States has much influence with Egypt's military leaders. textbook models don't exist. Sun-Sentinel – 2/15 (Sun Sentinel Editorial Board. it's the Egypt case that stands front-and-center now." In the previous issue of The National Interest. Bush administration. A GRAND strategy of ensuring . or because the maintenance of primacy will lead the United States into the trap of "imperial overstretch. aid. The euphemism denotes the use of non-military tools — diplomacy. It is their achievement that opened the window to international soft power. and Egypt's revolt will recede from the front pages. the benefits that stem from it are not. That means the next phase in Egypt will have begun — the transition to a democracy — and that will be an opportunity for the United States to employ and test "soft power. December (lexis)] A grand strategy based on American primacy means ensuring the United States stays the world's number one power--the diplomatic. US must remain flexible and constantly engaged to influence the military to ensure a transition to democracy. As such. Nonetheless.S. selective engagers. Egypt could be the watershed for an Obama doctrine of soft power. But critical issues in any discussion of America's grand strategy: Can America remain the dominant state? Should it strive to do this? America can remain dominant due to its prodigious military. At the outset of this discussion. Egypt will be a test case for US soft-power. If so. It is an opportunity that can't be missed. action--but they fail to realize what is good about American primacy. in any of its guises. There are two seapower to defend its interests. Christopher Layne warned of these dangers of primacy and called for retrenchment. imperil American security and deny the United States and its allies the benefits of primacy. economic and military leader. B.

retrenchment will make the United States less secure than the present grand strategy of primacy. If there is no diplomatic solution to the threats that confront the United States. that the global trade and monetary regimes flourish and that Washington's worldwide network of allies is reassured and protected. or any country. resort to other mechanisms of challenging the United States. a key tenet of the Bush Doctrine is to attack terrorists far from America's shores and not to wait while they use bases in other countries to plan and train for attacks against the United States itself. the world's airspace and outer space--allowing the United States to project its power far from its borders. As a consequence.8 to one of states aligned with the United States versus the Soviet Union. 84 are allied with America--their security is tied to the United States through treaties and other informal arrangements--and they include almost all of the major economic and military powers. In the anarchic world of the animal kingdom. this is not out of any sense of altruism. American-led wars in Kosovo. invade Iraq or to stop proliferation through the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI ). in part because they shoulder some of its burdens. These interests include ensuring that critical resources like oil flow around the world. And when enemies must be confronted. The other states are far weaker than China. U. regime that is the source of . including asymmetric strategies such as targeting communication and intelligence satellites upon which the United States depends. That is a ratio of almost 17 to one (85 to five). commands the "global commons"--the oceans. But even Beijing is intimidated by the United States and refrains from openly challenging U. as we shall see. or to gain greater influence. Q. and a big change from the Cold War when the ratio was about 1. You can count with one hand countries opposed to the United States. but New Delhi is friendly to Washington. a strategy based on primacy focuses on engaging enemies overseas. such as toward 71/148 Thursday File American primacy takes as its starting point the protection of the U. power. Only the "Gang of Five" may be expected to consistently resist the agenda and actions of the United States. Indeed. had us extensive influence in international politics. Iran. To make such a declaration implies weakness and emboldens aggression. it is no surprise to see NATO in Afghanistan or the Australians in East Timor. But China may not be confident those strategies would work. U. China proclaims that it will.S. thus abandoning its commitments or making unconvincing half-pledges to defend its interests and allies. Afghanistan and Iraq stand in contrast to the UN's inability to save the people of Darfur or even to conduct any military campaign to realize the goals of its charter. Allies are a great asset to the United States. The same is true of the anarchic world of international politics.S. on-the-ground presence that cannot be achieved by offshore balancing. China is clearly the most important of these states because it is a rising great power. from the international order U. Doing so allows the United States to operate with allies outside of the UN. Washington cannot call a "time out". history shows that threats must be confronted. The quiet effectiveness of the PSI in dismantling Libya's WMD programs and unraveling the A. in most cases. and the robustness of the United States' conventional and strategic deterrent capabilities is increased.S.S. does not mean that others will respect American wishes to retreat. rogue states or rising powers. and it cannot hide from threats. This requires a physical. primacy creates. if necessary. Indeed.S. stabilize Afghanistan.2 This is not an advantage that should be relinquished lightly. but because doing so allows them to use the power of the United States for their own purposes--their own protection. This is because threats will exist no matter what role America chooses to play in international politics. and so it is likely to refrain from testing the United States directly for the foreseeable future because China's power benefits. primacy--and the bandwagoning effect--has also given are the "Gang of Five": China. then the conventional and strategic military power of the United States is what protects the country from such threats. the costs of power projection for the United States and its allies are reduced. Never before in its history has this country. primacy is secured because America. while denying those common avenues to its enemies. In contrast. A remarkable fact about international politics today--in a world where American primacy is clearly and unambiguously on display--is that countries want to align themselves with the United States. a strategy based on retrenchment will not be able to achieve these fundamental objectives of the United States. North Korea and Venezuela. homeland and American global interests. for example.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. Thus. at present. Whether they are terrorists. Simply by declaring that the United States is "going home". allowing the United States to shape the behavior of states and international institutions. Khan proliferation network are in sharp relief to the typically toothless attempts by the UN to halt proliferation.S. Cuba. as Barry Posen has noted. They so many allies. one of which is America's ability to create coalitions of like-minded states to free Kosovo. For three of the "Gang of Five" cases--Venezuela. Of course. Cuba--it is an anti-U. where it can be stymied by opponents. away from American soil. Of 192 countries. Such influence comes in many forms. countries like India. predators prefer to eat the weak rather than confront the strong. Iran. Of course. Indeed. do not agree with all policy choices made by the United States.

once states are governed democratically. Rather. Wars still occur where Washington's interests are not seriously threatened. spreading democracy helps maintain U. it is important to note what those good things are. Lebanon. leadership. U. more transparent and more likely to want to resolve things amicably in concurrence with U. whether democracy in the Middle East will have a peaceful or of tilting at windmills. The United States has brought democracy to Afghanistan. and. but nonetheless. particularly war's worst form: great power wars. The Dark Ages followed Rome's collapse. Lal now recognizes that the only way to bring relief to desperately poor countries of the Third World is through the adoption of free market economic policies and globalization. even though remnant Taliban forces threatened them. but a Pax Americana does reduce war's likelihood. stabilizing influence on America's interests in the short run is open to question.S. power. a former Indian foreign service number of democratic states around the world has been the growth of the global economy.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 72/148 relations. 40 percent of them women. which are facilitated through American primacy. States. Hitler succeeded the order established at Versailles. India and Pakistan. In that they are dead wrong and need to be reminded of one of history's most significant lessons: Appalling things happen when international orders collapse. The economic stability and prosperity that stems from this economic order is a global public good from which all states benefit. peace and stability have been great benefits of an era where there was a dominant power--Rome. and mobility of capital and labor markets.S. labeling such an effort a modern form It is the obligation of Bush's critics to explain why democracy is good enough for Western states but not for the rest. power behind it. This economic order forces American industries to be competitive. most notably France and West Germany. should not even be attempted. Everything we think of when we consider the current international order--free trade. Britain or the United States today. Abandoning the positions of his youth. along with the growth in the the United States has labored to create an economically liberal worldwide network characterized by free trade and commerce. American power gives the United States the ability to spread democracy and other elements of its ideology of liberalism. the liberal order created by the United States will end just as assuredly. The United States created this network not out of altruism but for the benefit and the economic well-being of America. respect for international property rights. as John Owen noted on these pages in the Spring 2006 issue.5 million Afghans. Iraq. and benefits defense as well because the size of the economy makes the defense burden manageable. They may not yet look like Western-style democracies. Now even the Middle East is increasingly democratic. it is because they are more open. Second. The first free elections were held It was the military power of the United States that put Iraq on the path to democracy. And so. the march of democracy has been impressive. liberal democracies are more likely to align with the United States and be sympathetic to the American worldview. leadership reduced friction among many states that were historical antagonists.3 So. Scholars and statesmen have long recognized the irenic effect of power on the anarchic world of international politics. particularly the poorest states in the Third World. primacy. the likelihood of any type of conflict is significantly Thursday File the problem. This is not to say it fulfills Woodrow Wilson's vision of ending all war.4 As a witness to the failed alternative .S. power. Tehran or Havana could very well reorient THROUGHOUT HISTORY. but democratic progress has been made in Algeria. Today. the country itself is not intrinsically anti-American. where 8.S. a change of regime in Caracas. growing democratization--is directly linked to U. maximizes efficiencies and growth. Kuwait. who started his career confident in the socialist ideology of post-independence India. Retrenchment proponents seem to think that the current system can be maintained without the current amount of U. in general. democratic states are good for their citizens as well as for advancing the interests of the United In addition. During the Cold War. in Iraq in January 2005. Israel and Egypt. Perhaps the greatest testament to the benefits of the economic network comes from Deepak Lal. such as in Darfur. their people would be better off. Without U. Latin America. American primacy within the international system causes many positive outcomes for Washington and the world. Morocco. Indeed.S. Asia and the Caucasus. helping to ensure military prowess. the Palestinian Authority and Egypt." Consequently. American primacy helps keep a number of complicated relationships aligned--between Greece and Turkey. In addition to ensuring the security of the United States and its allies. Economic spin-offs foster the development of military technology. As country and western great Ral Donner sang: "You don't know what you've got (until you lose it). Indonesia and Australia. With its allies. Third.S. voted in a critical October 2004 election. This is not because democracies do not have clashing interests. increasing respect for human rights. South Korea and Japan. one gathers from the argument. a robust monetary regime. Doing so is a source of much good for the countries concerned as well as the United States because. The first has been a more peaceful world. By all accounts. Cross-X. diplomat and researcher at the World Bank. Of course. Washington fostered democratic governments in Europe. Indeed they do. Critics have faulted the Bush Administration for attempting to spread democracy in the Middle East. Perhaps democratic Arab states would be more opposed to Israel.

food. Fourth and the United States. UN peacekeeping operations depend on the United States to supply UN forces. military to South and Southeast Asia for many months to help with the aftermath of the disaster. in seeking primacy. 80 percent had a favorable opinion of America. volcanic eruption. Whether in Indonesia or Kashmir. On the day after Christmas in 2004. an enormous earthquake struck Kashmir. The United States is the earth's leading source of positive externalities for the world. American generosity has done more to help the United States fight the War on Terror than almost any other measure. earthquake. As the War on Terror is a war of ideas and opinion as much as military action. Lal is one of the strongest academic proponents of American primacy due to the economic prosperity it provides.S. 80 percent of Indonesian public opinion was opposed to the United States. For the first time since 9/11. flood. military conducting a humanitarian mission. the U.S. the money was well-spent When people in the Muslim world witness the U. the United States also provided financial aid to Pakistan. In October 2005. killing some 300. because it helped people in the wake of disasters. drought. a tremendous earthquake and tsunami occurred in the Indian Ocean near Sumatra. Indeed.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 73/148 finally. the United States assists the countries in need. The United States was the first to respond with aid. No other force possesses the communications capabilities or global logistical reach of the U. military.S.S. while support for Al-Qaeda dropped to its lowest level. military responded immediately. In fact. Cross-X. medical aid. Before the tsunami.000 people and leaving three million homeless. Indonesians still have overwhelmingly positive views of the United States. airmen and marines responded by providing water.000 U. military is the earth's "911 force"--it serves. sailors. . as the world's police. there is a clearly positive impact on Muslim opinion of the United States. Two years after the disaster. military could have accomplished this Herculean effort. but it also had a real impact on the War on Terror. killing about 74. has been willing to use its power not only to advance its interests but to promote the welfare of people all over the globe. and in poll after poll. To help those in need. diverting helicopters fighting the War on Terror in nearby Afghanistan to bring relief as soon as Thursday File economic systems.S. Only the U.S. soldiers. typhoon or tsunami. for the United States humanitarian missions are the equivalent of a blitzkrieg. and. military has participated in over fifty operations since the end of the Cold War--and most of those missions have been humanitarian in nature. Washington followed up with a large contribution of aid and deployed the U. The U. polls of Pakistani opinion have found that more people are favorable toward the United States than unfavorable. after it. it left a lasting impression about America. as one might expect from those witnessing the munificence of the United States. The U.S. Whenever there is a natural disaster.S. de facto. disease treatment and prevention as well as forensic assistance to help identify the bodies of those killed. the global paramedic and the planet's fire department. About 20.000 people.

the contours of the U. Instead. Analysts say a more democratic Egyptian government will have to be responsive to a public that may oppose such special and close ties with Washington. A regional re- alignment is shifting the contours of power and influence from the Levant to the Gulf. Washington Post – 2/13 (Mary Beth Sheridan and Joby Warrick. Yacoubian – 2/1 (Mona Yacoubian is senior adviser to the Center for Conflict Management at the U. http://www.S. “Mubarak resignation throws into question U. the United States must recognize this shifting regional alignment if it is to leverage any of these changes to its advantage. Once reviled by many in the West as a supporter of Al Qaeda. Washington Post Staff Writers. 2011. It is spearheading a free trade zone encompassing Turkey. Continuing partnership with Egypt is critical to counterterrorism operations globally.washingtonpost. sharing information on extremist groups such as al-Qaeda and working hand in glove on counterterrorism operations.S. Indeed. and Yemen reflect tectonic regional shifts that U. The stakes are nothing less than the future of American leadership in the region. the network is now being celebrated for insuring that the world can watch Egyptians make history. ***Terrorism Shell*** . The dynamics now spawning protests in Algeria. Washington is facing a new reality in the Arab world.S. February 13. The unprecedented popular demonstrations Egyptian that already expelled one Arab leader in Tunisia and may well be on the verge of unseating another regime in Egypt mark a watershed in the region from which there is no return. the Muslim Brotherhood is likely to gain influence if free For decades. The small Arab sheikhdom of Qatar is also exerting disproportionate influence. Institute of Peace. and an important model of Islamist democracy to the Arab world. an end to torture and repression and for legitimate governments that can represent their aspirations.politico. Moreover.-Egyptian counterterrorism work”. February 1.-Egyptian relationship may well be redrawn.S. a staunch American ally. Qatar has also played a key mediating role – helping to bring together Lebanon’s fractious factions in May 2008 when the country appeared on the verge of another civil war. President Barack Obama’s call to the “win the future” in his State of the Union address resonates deeply regarding America’s role in the Middle East. Syria. “Winning the future in a new Mideast”. Their demands are not the “bread and butter” issues that typify Arab world street protests. demanding an end to his regime. these are pleas for greater freedoms.html?hpid=topnews) CJC Egypt's government has been a critical partner for U. Muslim Brotherhood takeover would close that Intel window. With the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak. Rather. Thursday File Ext . Lebanon. It owns Al Jazeera. These rolling popular protests are the most dramatic examples of the region’s changing tides. A. Turkey has also exerted its influence to promote regional trade and investment. and possibly positioned to reprise this role as Lebanon once again contends with mounting tensions.cfm?uuid=EC73B7BB-6C56-41A0-8F05-AD2986A02AE3) CJC President Hosni Mubarak’s speech Tuesday is unlikely to assuage the hundreds of thousands of Egyptians gathered in Cairo’s Tahrir Square. In particular. Turkey’s role as a key arbiter among Middle East players. Other trends are not as positive from an U.S. policymakers must grasp if the United States is to exert influence and remain relevant in this “new” Middle East. signals a new era in regional relations. These protests are remarkable. This seminal moment in the Middle East demands that the United States be bold and innovative rather than relying on a reflexive response to the changes—both dramatic and subtle—that are now re-shaping that region. vantage point – namely the ascendance of the militant Shiite group Hezbollah in Lebanon accompanied by Syria’s resurgence there from the nadir of its influence in 2005. a bridge to Europe. They provide critical intelligence for our success to prevent attacks.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 74/148 Cross-X. http://dyn. and Jordan that could help spur badly-needed economic growth and job creation. the Arabic language satellite network that has broadcast from Egypt for the past eight days. not least because of the impassioned calls for dignity and respect by people whose governments have long treated them with contempt. intelligence agencies.Leadership US effective response to Egypt is critical to maintaining regional ties in the Middle East critical to its leadership. Now the future of that cooperation is in question.S.

Even the United States and Israel have for decades tended to regard Last week's brutal suicide bombings in Baghdad and Jerusalem have once again illustrated dramatically that terrorism as a mere tactical nuisance or irritant rather than a critical strategic challenge to their national security concerns." encourage further terrorist attacks. despite the collapse of the Oslo Agreements of 1993 and numerous acts of terrorism triggered by the second intifada that began almost three years ago. The impact is extinction. For instance.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 75/148 Cross-X. thus far at least. weapons. August 28." said Aaron David Miller. particularly in democratic societies. Thus. that on September 11. & Director @ Inter-University for Terrorism Studies. radiological. The Islamist group has renounced violence but is openly hostile to Israel and may call for more independence from U. to understand the magnitude and implications of the terrorist threats to the very survival of civilization itself. The internationalization and brutalization of current and future terrorism make it clear we have entered an Age of Super Terrorism [e. Palestinians religious movements [e. as well as scores of other countries affected by the universal nightmare of modern terrorism surprised by new terrorist "surprises"? There are many reasons. training. Washington Times. policies. analysts say. if not eliminated completely. It is not surprising. Jacob) the international community failed. Osama bin Laden's international network not only opposes the presence of American military in the Arabian Peninsula and Iraq. Why are the United States and Israel. there is no survival. therefore.. past experience provides useful lessons for a realistic future strategy. "How will cooperation with the United States on counterterrorism develop in the view of these new constraints? I would argue the space will contract. the religionization of politics. in violation of fundamental human rights of the noncombatant segment of societies. The conventional illusion is that terrorism must be justified by oppressed people seeking to achieve their goals and consequently the argument advanced by "freedom fighters" anywhere. Similarly. it behooves those countries victimized by terrorism to understand a cardinal message communicated by Winston Churchill to the House of Commons on May 13.. the U. The argument here is that law-enforcement efforts and military retaliation inevitably will fuel more brutal acts of violent revenge. Unlike their historical counterparts. there is the danger it will paralyze governments and thereby The prudent application of force has been demonstrated to be an effective tool for short. Islamic Jihad] and secular entities [such as Fatah's Tanzim and Aqsa Martyr Brigades]] wish not only to resolve national grievances [such as Jewish settlements. are still "shocked" by each suicide attack at a time of intensive diplomatic efforts to revive the moribund peace process through the now revoked cease-fire arrangements [hudna]. if this perception continues to prevail. regional and global security concerns." should be tolerated if not glorified. Israel and its citizens.g. "give me liberty and I will give you death. Jerusalem] but primarily to destroy the Jewish state.S.S. funding.and long-term deterrence of terrorism. military operation in Iraq eliminated Saddam Hussein's regime as a state sponsor of terror. right of return.political. the Hebron commander of the Islamic Jihad. Thursday File and fair elections are held. victory however long and hard the road may be: For without victory. propaganda.a top Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip who was directly responsible for several suicide bombings including the latest bus attack in Jerusalem disrupted potential terrorist operations.g. Likewise. . operational command and control] will only increase terrorism. recruitment. 1940: "Victory at all costs. Israel's targeted killing of Mohammed Sider. For example.are addressed. B.g. social and economic . provided the root causes of conflicts . government that follows the rule of the Caliphs. biological. chemical. defused a "ticking bomb. 2001. and the exploitation of the media by terrorist propaganda and psychological warfare. victory in spite of terror. Two myths in particular must be debunked immediately if an effective counterterrorism "best practices" strategy can be developed [e. strengthening international cooperation]. In sum. a former State Department Middle East expert who is now at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. weak punishment of terrorists. Hamas. This traditional rationalization of "sacred" violence often conceals that the real purpose of terrorist groups is to gain political power through the barrel of the gun. “Terrorism Myths and Realities”." The assassination of Ismail Abu Shanab . Alexander ‘03 (Yonah-. nuclear and cyber] with its serious implications concerning national. such as lack of a universal definition of terrorism. double standards of morality." Clearly. The first illusion is that terrorism can be greatly reduced. Americans were stunned by the unprecedented tragedy of 19 al Qaeda terrorists striking a devastating blow at the center of the nation's commercial and military powers. including misunderstanding of the manifold specific factors that contribute to terrorism's expansion. Similarly. contemporary terrorists have introduced a new scale of violence in terms of conventional and unconventional threats and impact. Lexis. but its stated objective is to "unite all Muslims and establish a The second myth is that strong action against terrorist infrastructure [leaders.

since the United States and many governments no longer wanted to be associated with it. And Egypt served as a counterweight to Iran. this will never be the same. "A different government in Cairo may not see Iran as quite the same kind of threat.washingtonpost. 2011.S. such as Gaza and Sudan. "We have the same kind of window into Iran and other countries via the Egyptians. 2001. In the region. Washington Post – 2/13 (Mary Beth Sheridan and Joby Warrick. then a strong U. 11.S.S." In addition to passing on intelligence. Hoffman said." according to Jane's intelligence information service. particularly since the Sept.html?hpid=topnews) CJC Egypt's intelligence cooperation is extensive.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 76/148 Cross-X. “Mubarak resignation throws into question U. Mubarak's government played an important role in containing the Palestinian group Hamas. the United States had a window into the Soviet Union through Iran. Hoffman said the use of rendition has been on the decline. officials secretly "rendered" terrorism suspects to countries such as Egypt for interrogation. Or they might just look for ways to use Iran as a foreign-policy lever" in their relationship with the West.S. they are the best. ally. government does not. . Washington Post Staff Writers.-Egyptian counterterrorism work”. The cooperation became public after revelations surfaced that U. by blocking the smuggling of arms and militants into Gaza and supporting Israel's blockade of the strip. http://www. Bruce Hoffman. a terrorism expert at Georgetown University." he said. The Egyptian General Intelligence Service "has the reputation of being one of the best-informed intelligence agencies on Islamist fundamentalism and its international dimensions. Radical takeover means the US is fighting blind. according to analysts. "Whatever happens next. February 13. And the Egyptians have built up a trove of information on al-Qaeda and other radical Islamist groups in the Middle East. however. Human rights groups have denounced the practice because of the notorious torture record of those nations' security services.S. Its security services have numerous sources in places where the Thursday File Egypt Intel = Best There is no other country that can replace Egypt’s intelligence system. Egypt's security services have worked closely on operations with their U. attacks. noted that during the Cold War.

that does huge damage to the Al Qaeda narrative. Mubarak or President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen would deal a short-term blow to its counterterrorism campaign. The best the White House can do -. For the United States. With the popular revolts in Egypt and Yemen — and a government already deposed in Tunisia — American counterterrorism officials are concerned that radical factions in those countries could find a new foothold amid the chaos. the administration has done a good job of reacting. and officials and outside experts said that losing Mr. .” he said. That narrative holds that authoritarian proAmerican governments should be deposed by violent jihad. CJC Officials were "a little bit flustered at first" by the protests -.especially as practiced in the Middle East -. "We have closed our eyes to Mubarak because he has been useful to us in other ways." said Nathan Brown.” said Juan Zarate of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.and appears to be doing behind the scenes -. 1/31/2011. “Sudden Split Recasts Thursday File Egypt – Counterterrorism Radicalization in Egypt would undermine US counterterrorism efforts. pluralistic transition. “There’s part of this that’s dangerous to Al Qaeda. A peaceful solution undermines Al Qaeda’s narrative. Stone – 1/31 (Andrea Stone. an expert on Arab politics at George Washington University.politicsdaily. The United States is heavily reliant on foreign partners.but Boston University international relations professor Richard Augustus Norton said overall. MARK LANDLER and MARK MAZZETTI." said Marina Ottaway. The dual nature of diplomacy -. “If the street protests lead to a peaceful. The same realpolitik has been in play in the relation with Yemen. Effective diplomacy in Egypt is critical to a peaceful resolution of the crisis that renews our diplomatic credibility which is critical to fighting terrorism. Foreign Policy”. Algeria and other dictatorial regimes in the region that the United States has taken it easy on in order to secure help for fighting terrorism. Just as WikiLeaks has been credited with setting off the revolution in Tunisia. http://www. Republican leaders backed up that director of the Middle East program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. NY Times – 2/2 (HELENE COOPER.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 77/148 Cross-X.has complicated the administration's response to the popular uprising in Egypt. Bush’s administration.html?_r=1&hp) CJC the unfolding crisis is about much more than just a rift with an ally.Vice President Joe Biden told the PBS News Hour that Mubarak is not a dictator -. leaked cables about Egypt illustrate a complex relationship of subtle shifts between coddling and arm-twisting. who was a top counterterrorism official during George W. Political Analyst for Politics communicate "the hopelessness of the situation to President Mubarak. as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell refused to criticize how the administration was handling the crisis. “Egyptian Crisis Biggest Foreign Test Yet for Obama Administration”. Or perhaps not.nytimes. http://www. February 2.S.

a longtime U. "We have sent a strong message to our allies in the region saying. "If you're governing these countries.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 78/148 Cross-X. as opposed to Iran's example'.com Thursday File Yemen Spillover Spillover is happening in Yemen.S. he urged all governments in the region to deal peacefully with protests. two key feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Anti-government demonstrations also simmered Tuesday in Yemen and Bahrain. 2011. "Obviously." But seizing the chance to put Iran. Feb 15." Obama said. on the spot." Obama said. Reuters – 2/15 (Matt Spetalnick and Patricia Zengerle.reuters. we're concerned about stability throughout the region. 'Let's look at Egypt's example.S. as the Egyptian military had done. as the pro-democracy fervor that toppled Mubarak rippled across the Middle East. foe. you can't be behind the curve. allies with longtime autocratic rulers. a critical US ally. http://www. “ Obama slams Iran government and praises Egypt army”. Staff Writers. you've got to get out ahead of change. .

" stating that countries throughout the Middle East are suddenly taking new approaches to respond to their citizens' needs. Shadi and what I think people are saying is if it first happened in Tunisia. Middle East is powder keg. It's really hard to tell. Staff Writer CBS News. February 14. More importantly. any instability could fan the flames of civil war in a country that has been a pivotal test-run for democracy in the region since September 11. Syria ***Instability Shell*** .S. “Egyptian Crisis Biggest Foreign Test Yet for Obama Administration”. Hamid added that the United States should try to adapt its foreign policy accordingly." Hamid pointed to the "end of this so-called stability-paradigm.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 79/148 Cross-X. any conflict will spillover The Age 9/24/2007 “Tempers must remain cool as the Middle East heats up”. Jordan. especially if an anti-Syrian candidate is elected. the talk now is of war. http://www. fight against terrorism. Continued Egyptian protests are sparking a wave of uprising across the Middle East diplomacy will be critical to keep stability. among others. a violent murder that pitched his divided nation further into turmoil. why can't it happen elsewhere?" Hamid told CBS News senior White House correspondent Bill Plante.html THE torturous road to peace in the Middle East becomes more excruciating every day and the cumulative effect of events in the region over the past week offer little hope for any reduction in what appear to be increasingly flammable tensions. though Hosni Mubarak is no longer the president of Egypt. people are drawing inspirations from the Egyptian model. the al-Qaeda sanctuary is ground zero in the U. "Some [countries] are trying essentially to bribe their citizens. "We're seeing protests all throughout the region. Mr Ghanem's death introduces an unwelcome element of instability ahead of tomorrow's crucial presidential elections. CBS News – 2/14 (Genevieve Kermani. Already a basket case before recent street protests. 1/31/ Yemen and Jordan. Those in Saudi Arabia." he said. Yemen. "Yemen could be next. Jordan could be next.html) CJC Hamid of the Brookings Doha Center said on "Washington Unplugged" Monday that the revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia could spark similar outcomes throughout the Middle East. as we've seen in Kuwait. and now that it's happened in Egypt. The killing has been widely condemned by the international community and the finger pointed.theage. http://www. "We're seeing protests emerge everywhere. the most notable being the 2005 killing of former prime minister Rafiq CJC the most serious foreign policy crisis of the Obama administration unfolded at breakneck speed in the streets of Cairo and other Egyptian cities.cbsnews. and by implication its ally. at Syria. Political Analyst for Politics Daily. the White House and diplomats at the State Department have struggled to keep up with developments. At the same time. Stone – 1/31 (Andrea Stone. especially Yemen. they have kept an eye out for trouble in nearby Thursday File Spillover -> Yemen = Terrorism Preventing spillover from Egypt is critical to keeping terrorist hotspots from collapsing like Yemen. Iran. Bahrain and Iran. As arguably A.politicsdaily. His death was the latest in a string of attacks against prominent critics of Lebanon's neighbour and former powerbroker Syria. National security officials huddled with Egypt experts in the White House while the president spoke by phone to leaders in the region. As Plante noted. 2001. http://www. The match that lights the flame may well be last Thursday's assassination of Lebanese MP Antoine Ghanem." he said. fear the revolution that began in Tunisia could target them “Will Egypt's Revolution Spark Domino Effect?”. once again. protesters remain on the streets in that country in an effort to remind the military "who's in charge of Egypt's" B. 2011. If anything. Protests have been seen in recent days in Algeria.

Beyond the loss of life and productive capability in armed conflict. remain mired in political haggling over what is to be brought to the negotiating table. with its arson murders by extremists. planned for November. Look at what excessive rates of migration. Democracies and free markets are spreading. There has also been speculation that the raid served as a "dry run" for a possible Israeli or US attack on Iran. and particularly by the US. C. The events in Lebanon and the debate over Iran run parallel with Israel's declaration of the Gaza Strip as "hostile territory" and Israeli opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu's confirmation that two weeks ago Israel carried out an air attack deep inside Syria. Their expansion is the best general guarantee for peace. General Mohammad Alavi. In the long Thursday File has. have dangerous consequences for the region as a whole. Regional Conflicts Draw in the US and go Nuclear Jonathan Dean (Advisor on International Security Issues) 5/4/95 Union of Concerned Scientists We do not want this kind of world. such as the murder of a Lebanese MP. Calls have been made for UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to launch an international probe into the bombing. the United States and other industrial countries pay for these conflicts by losing their investments and their trade in goods and services. on a site that it believed was being equipped for nuclear development by North Korea. Mohamed ElBaradei.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 80/148 Cross-X. is connected to another. In the Middle East. . This war of words was further escalated when a senior commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard chose to outline the capability of his country's ballistic missiles. This pointed admonition coincides with a string of reports emanating from Washington that the Bush Administration is running out of patience with diplomacy and is intensifying its plans for air strikes against Iran. Another suggestion is that the target was Iranian weapons destined for Lebanon's Hezbollah. We cannot afford it. and this should be carried out with haste. They pay most of the costs for humanitarian relief and rehabilitation. But democracies and free markets cannot flourish in an increasingly interknit world unless there is some modicum of order. in a part of the world where every action can easily be met with a disproportionate reaction. more so since the Iraq war. every tension. Iran's only Arab ally. as it has with the other high-profile assassinations of anti-Syrian leaders in Lebanon. The head of the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency. These threats coincide with growing international pressure on Iran to abandon what is regarded by the West. and Australia must impress upon its allies that. quickly entered the fray and warned against the use of force against Iran. US efforts to ensure the success of a Middle East peace conference. The Middle East is now overheated and potentially explosive. which he threatened to use on American targets in the Middle East. somewhat ingenuously. and it is this very mutuality that can make one act. protracted regional violence creates conditions and motivation for developing nuclear weapons which can directly threaten our security. and they pay in increased domestic frictions for the waves of migrants and refugees loosed by conflict. unrestrained regional conflicts can become conflicts which can draw in the United States and other major powers. every event. as its clandestine nuclear arms program. including hundreds of thousands of refugees from the Balkans. have done in Germany. Talk of war further intensified after the deputy commander of Iran's air force. denied any involvement. Meanwhile. a move UN officials described as an "out of control" drift to war. The French also added fuel to the fire when Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner warned the world to "prepare for the worst and the worst is war". there is more mileage in diplomacy than in any military solution. announced that Iran had already prepared a plan to attack Israel if it bombed his country. Beyond this.

com. but however ad hoc these protests. The lack of an organised political opposition in Egypt has become apparent in recent days. and however weak the civil society. http://www. The cry is for democracy: the risk is to the stability that has defined Egypt for decades. The Australian – 2/4 (“High stakes in the square”. The stakes are high. but of the Middle East. In the middle are the protesters in the square who. Nobel Peace Prize winner Mohamed ElBaradei. The extraordinary battle being played out in the centre of Cairo will decide the future not just of Egypt.theaustralian. A combination of economic woes and mass unemployment. It is an uprising that appears to have taken by surprise everyone from the White House to the man being touted as the most likely transitional leader. But the past few days have shown that acceptance by Egyptians of the trade-off between rights and stability can no longer be assumed. The Egyptian President is insisting that while he will step down in September. 2011. He has been the strongman of the Middle East. are refusing to leave until Mr Mubarak surrenders office.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 81/148 Cross-X. the US President is signalling he must leave before that. February 04. That need for stability has driven the West's approach to Mr Mubarak's 30 years in power. with a caretaker government working towards CJC EGYPT'S transition will determine stability in the region. . it remains far from certain whether either Hosni Mubarak or Barack Obama will be able to deliver a sustainable outcome. The stability of the 80-million-strong nation and of the region is in play as protesters clash with progovernment supporters in Tahrir Square. and meanwhile he intends to oversee the transition to a new leader. have spilled into the street. the mood for change cannot be ignored. along with dissatisfaction with a long-term autocratic leader. yet a week after the uprising began. whose ability to balance domestic demands and regional imperatives has made his nation a secular bulwark against fundamentalist Islam and the West's strongest Arab ally. against the odds and despite the Thursday File Ext – Instability Egypt instability threatens Middle East instability.

strategic interests. Iranian protesters and aimed tough words at Tehran on Tuesday.S.S. The parallel protests against key allies and enemies of the U. Navy's Fifth Fleet patrolling the Gulf. The funeral of a demonstrator here Tuesday swelled into growing clashes with security forces amid the gleaming new skyscrapers of this financial capital. sharpened the difficulty for the Obama administration. is "very concerned" about the violence and is urging the regime to investigate protester deaths as quickly as possible. The developments came as security forces in Yemen. fought back protesters for a fifth day. Obama praised the courage of protesters and said the Iranian regime was "pretending" to celebrate Egypt's revolt while "gunning down and beating people who were trying to express themselves peacefully" at home. as it struggles to pursue its interests in the region. FEBRUARY 16. Reporters for the Wall Street Journal. Later.refrain from violence.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0#) CJC Bahrain—The Middle East's wave of popular revolts helped spur the largest street rebellion in years in a Persian Gulf State Department spokesman Philip Crowley put out a statement saying the U. Neither leader spoke Tuesday about the movements in Bahrain and Yemen. an important ally in U.S. and Julian Barnes. the government threatened leaders of Monday's protests there with execution and made a fresh wave of arrests. as fast-moving uprisings have unseated regimes in Tunisia and Egypt and triggered opposition rallies in Algeria. though the president was questioned about both during a news conference. Thursday File ME Diplomacy – Bahrain & Yemen Uprisings in Bahrain and Yemen have US diplomats on their toes to balance strategic interests. which hosts the headquarters for the U. in marked contrast to their relative silence on Iran during the last wave of protests in Iran in 2009. The president and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton both offered encouragement to MANAMA.S.. antiterrorism efforts. .S. Adam Entous. “Wave of Unrest Rolls Into Gulf”. Wall Street Journal – 2/16 (Joe Parkinson. and the first to pit a Shiite Muslim majority against Sunni rulers—heightening the dilemma for the U. Mr. "We also call on all parties to. Jordan and elsewhere..Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 82/148 Cross-X." he added. In Iran. http://online.wsj. The White House is trying to balance its desire to encourage what President Barack Obama called Tuesday "certain universal values" with U.

at the same time as he struggles to control southern secessionists and to cement a fragile truce with rebels in the feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC The United States aims to spend $75 million to double the size of a special Yemeni counterterrorism unit. Reporters for the Wall Street Journal. homeland. Reporters for the Wall Street security.S. Wall Street Journal – 2/16 (Joe Parkinson. FEBRUARY 16. He is also under pressure to quash the resurgent al Qaeda wing in the impoverished Arabian Peninsula state. The U. in power for 30 years. http://www. Adam Entous. ***Bahrain Shell*** .-bound cargo planes with toner cartridges packed with explosives.wsj. Stable Yemen government. Feb 14. Those operations include training commandos and conducting counter-terrorism strikes. Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Adam Entous. “U. “Wave of Unrest Rolls Into Gulf”. 2011. which has yet to be approved by Congress. to spend $75 million on new Yemen military training”. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper told Congress last week that Yemen's "myriad political. This is separate from his budget. Diplomats are working for a solution to ensure that Bahrain allows political reforms and to quell the Thursday File Yemen Counter Terrorism Obama is pushing to double support for counter-terrorism efforts in Yemen to fight al Qaeda. al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.S. 2011. and officials say a collapse of the weak government could give the group free rein. Michael Leiter.S. a U. The funds are unrelated to another $120 million earmarked for Yemen in President Barack Obama's 2012 budget request unveiled on Monday. U.S. The funding. told Congress last week he saw AQAP as the biggest current threat to the U. and Julian Barnes. Wall Street Journal – 2/16 (Joe Parkinson. is part of a broader effort to increase pressure on al Qaeda's Yemen-based affiliate. The money would assist counter-terrorism efforts against AQAP which is the biggest threat of terrorist attacks. and critical economic assistance to stabilize the country. Staff Reporter. A. would gut US counter-terrorism efforts globally and allow the fast spread of al Qaeda. inspired by uprisings that toppled Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak and Tunisia's President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali. U. airliner and a more recent attempt last year to blow up two U. the official told Reuters. and development challenges" pose the greatest threat to that poor Arab nation since its 1994 civil war. official said the funds would be invested in a special Yemeni counter- terrorism unit that is operated under Yemen's interior ministry and now totals around 300 people. The request includes $35 million in additional military assistance for Yemen and $69 million in economic assistance. or AQAP. and Julian Barnes. has faced growing protests in recent weeks from thousands of Yemenis.S.S. head of the National Counterterrorism Center. Yemen is the home to al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. http://online. 2011. Yemen is under threat of collapsing. Reuters – 2/14 (Phil Stewart. FEBRUARY 16. “Wave of Unrest Rolls Into Gulf”.reuters.S.S. official said on Monday. speaking on condition of anonymity.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 83/148 Cross-X.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0#) CJC Some U. operations in the country could be hamstrung. The group has claimed responsibility for a failed Christmas Day attack in 2009 aboard a U. officials believe if the current government fell in Yemen.

Wall Street Journal – 2/16 (Joe Parkinson. critical to countering Iran and protect the Persian Gulf. interests in a region where a significant chunk of the world's oil is produced and transported each day. Dr. “U. Iran’s efforts to develop asymmetric capabilities designed to hold U. the kingdom has liberalized more than most of its Gulf neighbors. sometimes violently. The spillover to Gulf States would result in massive oil price spikes. Iran’s actions of principal concern to the United States include its nuclear program. The split U.S. American planners must consider the possibility that Iran may threaten to resort to military force should the pressures on Tehran to change its behaviors become intolerable. Deterrence must include a clear message to Iran that it cannot alter the strategic situation in the region . ally—to survive by meeting some demands. 2011. assistance to anti-U.nwc. Although it lacks oil. Rebecca Grant is a senior fellow of the Lexington Institute. and efforts to undermine U. Adam Entous. If Bahrain's Sunni-led government were to be forced from power—something protesters haven't yet made a focus of their demands— some fear a new government might seek closer ties to Iran and force the U. allies. and since 1991 in Kuwait. where our national security is at stake. Likewise. with 18 of 40 seats. a nonprofit public-policy research organization headquartered in Arlington. on Tuesday suspended their participation in the body. But parliamentarians from the Shiite bloc. imperatives also were on display in the Egyptian revolt.S. While the ruling family still holds nearabsolute power.S. NAVAL OPTIONS FOR INFLUENCING IRAN”. not remove them. Gouré is a vice president with the Lexington 4.wsj.wsj. “Wave of Unrest Rolls Into Gulf”. though they have stopped short of trying to remove the ruling family from power.S. a viable Shiite opposition has gained a growing voice in the country's parliament. The presence of 62. Bahrain collapse would result in US losing basing for the Navy’s 5th Fleet. naval forces in the Gulf.S.S. called Al-Wafaq. forces in Iraq. FEBRUARY 16. when the administration initially tried to encourage peaceful protests while urging the government of Hosni Mubarak—a longstanding U.military deployments in the Persian Gulf is to deter Iran from taking actions deemed inimical to American interests. is a visible demonstration of the interest of the United States in the region and of commitment to secure its national interests and defend 84/148 Thursday File http://online. Another concern is that an uprising in Bahrain could spill into next-door Saudi Arabia or Kuwait. for more political rights over the years.S. and other issues within the institute’s national security Her research focuses on airpower. He is involved in a wide range of issues as part of the institute’s national security program. forces and allies in the region at risk or to contest movement in the Gulf must also be considered as potentially destabilizing. http://www. In addition. The move robs Bahrain's government of a legitimate political party with which to negotiate a settlement. in solidarity with the protesters. CJC A central focus of U. joint operations. Navy to relocate .S. cyberspace.S. Virginia." Christopher Boucek. and Julian Barnes.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. support for extremist groups in the region. http://online. Reporters for the Wall Street Journal.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0#) CJC the Obama administration fears unrest in Bahrain could undercut U. Gouré and Grant – 9 (Dr. Bahrain's housing of the U. Naval War College Review. B.S. In response. Navy's Fifth Fleet make it a critical port for the Navy vessels deployed to counter Iran and protect the Persian Gulf. Shiite leaders have pushed.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0#) CJC "The goal is to press to reform these governments. Vol. 5th Fleet is critical to deterring Iranian aggression in the Middle East.S. Bahrain's Sunni Muslim rulers have long faced a restive Shiite population that alleges economic and political discrimination. No. Autumn 2009. where even minor unrest might roil world-wide oil markets. a Middle East analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.

com 85/148 Thursday File through the use of force. Egypt and Saudi Arabia face violent street protests demanding retribution against Israel — and they eventually yield. he must be confronted by the likelihood that the opponent will impose unacceptable costs or negate the effects of his actions. Revolutionary Guards surging across the border into Iraq. and indeed. Director of the . although the persuasiveness of a nonnuclear response to a nuclear threat is uncertain.html)] The Israeli nuclear arsenal has profound implications for the future of peace in the Middle East. In other words.25 The United States. intelligence officials spot a shipment of longer-range Iranian missiles heading for Lebanon. Two months later. Center for Research on Globalization. 2002 [John Steinbach. North Korea and Iran are developing nuclear capabilities. 2006 [David. It is clear from Israel Shahak that Israel has no interest in peace except that which is dictated on its own terms. Jordan. guerrilla warfare at sea.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. The heart of deterrence and dissuasion is the promise of unacceptable consequences. This campaign should be accompanied by clear demonstrations— through exercises. Deterrence theory suggests a number of potential options: preemption/first strike. But the events he set in motion could not be so easily restrained. The recipient of the deterrent/dissuasion message must consider either his fate too painful or his gain too small to justify his current behavior. "Whoever believes that Israel will ever sign the UN Convention prohibiting the proliferation of nuclear weapons. But it's not hard to conjure ways that today's hot spots could ignite. Iran is relying on a strategy of asymmetric warfare —in essence. Bosco. Iraq is suffering through one of its bloodiest months since the U.. After emptying his revolver. Steinback. Iranian sources claim that the Islamic Republic’s navy can close the Gulf."(34) According to Seymour Hersh. the young Serb nationalist jumped into the shallow river that runs through the city and was quickly seized. It is never possible to talk to Iran about no matter what. Certainly about writing in Haaretz said. and cooperative activities with allies—that the United States can rapidly defeat Iran’s asymmetric warfare strategy. Europe was at war.-led invasion in 2003."Israel's insistence on the independent use of its nuclear weapons can be seen as the foundation on which Israeli grand strategy rests. and long-range missile technology is spreading like a virus. 2006 IT WAS LATE JUNE in Sarajevo when Gavrilo Princip shot Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife. D. To accomplish this. The understanding that small but violent acts can spark global conflagration is etched into the world's consciousness. Certain religious websites are abuzz with talk of Armageddon.php? p=403&sid=95896c43b66ffa28f9932774a408bb4b] ARMAGEDDON Could This Be the Start of World War III? As the Middle East erupts. Iranian aggression causes World War 3. 2002 (http://www. and defenses. There may be as much hyperbole as prophecy in the forecasts for world war. either alone or in combination. 7/23/2006. The Israeli government decides to strike the convoy and Iranian nuclear facilities simultaneously. Senior Editor at Foreign Policy Magazine. “Could This Be the Start of World War III?” http://usc. Global nuclear war. Consider the following scenarios: • Targeting Iran: As Israeli troops seek out and destroy Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon. shattered four empires and dragged more than two dozen countries into war. however much it may try. together with its allies. former Israeli Chief of Staff is quoted "It is never possible to talk to Iraq about no matter what. The world is awash in weapons. Governments in Syria. David Bosco is a senior editor at Foreign Policy magazine. the awareness of peace's fragility is particularly acute."(37) and Munya Mardoch. fleet deployments. bent on striking Israel's American allies."(35) General Amnon Shahak-Lipkin. as the world watches the violence in the Middle East. July 23. there are plenty of scenarios for global conflagration. The reverberations from Princip's shots in the summer of 1914 ultimately took the lives of more than 10 million people. needs to conduct its own information campaign.glo. is day dreaming. triggering a major regional war. It may be possible to threaten preemption or retaliation with conventional forces even against a nuclear-armed adversary. The bloodshed in Lebanon appears to be part of a broader upsurge in unrest.. This hot summer. retaliation. By David for the entire planet. In recent years." former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said last week. Some see the start of a global conflict. Taliban militants are burning schools and attacking villages in southern Afghanistan as the United States and NATO struggle to defend that country's fragile government. After Iran has recovered from the shock. "the size and sophistication of Israel's nuclear arsenal allows men such as Ariel Sharon to dream of redrawing the map of the Middle East aided by the implicit threat of nuclear Nuclear-armed India is still cleaning up the wreckage from a large terrorist attack in which it suspects militants from rival Pakistan. "We're in the early stages of what I would describe as the Third World War.S.globalresearch. and has absolutely no intention of negotiating in good faith to curtail its nuclear program or discuss seriously a nuclear-free MiddleEast. Iran has engaged in a series of information operations intended to create the impression that it is capable of exerting its military power in the Persian Gulf. March 3. E.

. complicity) is not reversed soon. an unindicted war criminal with a bloody record stretching from the massacre of Palestinian civilians at Quibya in 1953. bitterly resent its coercive intent. During a future Middle Eastern war (a distinct possibility given the ascension of Ariel Sharon. Israel no longer needs U."(40) (Which requires a "nonconventional" response.S."(39) The Arab states. a perhaps unique exception being the Iraqi SCUD attacks during the Gulf War. a nuclear escalation.cannot be Thursday File Israeli Institute for the Development of Weaponry. to the massacre of Palestinian civilians at Sabra and Shatila in 1982 and beyond) the possible Israeli use of nuclear weapons should not be discounted.for whatever reason.) Israeli nukes aimed at the Russian heartland seriously complicate disarmament and arms control negotiations and. It is widely reported that the principal purpose of Jonathan Pollard's spying for Israel was to furnish satellite images of Soviet targets and other super sensitive data relating to U. nuclear targeting strategy. long aware of Israel's nuclear program. Seymour Hersh warns.S. or some secular right-wing Israeli fanatics.while israeli jewish society undergoes a steady polarization. and dramatically lowers the threshold for their actual use. requiring their own weapons of mass destruction. . seizing control of Israeli nuclear weapons.) Meanwhile.or should any Arab nation fire missiles against Israel.."41) and Ezar Weissman.. In the words of Mark Gaffney." .. "The moral and political meaning of nuclear weapons is that states which renounce their use are acquiescing to the status of Vassal states. said in 1994. All those states which feel satisfied with possessing conventional weapons alone are fated to become vassal states. would now be a strong probability. ". the influence of the radical right becomes stronger."(38) As Israeli society becomes more and more polarized... According to Shahak.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 86/148 Cross-X. the existence of an arsenal of mass destruction in such an unstable region in turn has serious implications for future arms control and disarmament negotiations."(42) Russia and before it the Soviet Union has long been a major(if not the major) target of Israeli nukes.. or some some of the delerious Israeli Army generals. (43) (Since launching its own satellite in 1988. "The prospect of Gush Emunim. and perceive its existence as the paramount threat to peace in the region.. "In Israeli terminology.. "Should war break out in the Middle East again. if the familar pattern(Israel refining its weapons of mass destruction with U. spy secrets. According to Shahak. if not for all out nuclear war. at the very least. Israel's current President said "The nuclear issue is gaining momentum(and the) next war will not be conventional. as the Iraqis did. and even the threat of nuclear war. once unthinkable except as a last resort.the deepening Middle East conflict could trigger a world conflagration.S. the Israeli security system increasingly relies on the recruitment of cohorts from the ranks of the extreme right. the launching of missiles on to Israeli territory is regarded as 'nonconventional' regardless of whether they are equipped with explosives or poison gas. the unilateral possession of nuclear weapons by Israel is enormously destabilizing.

Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 87/148

Bahrain is critical to US defense strategy in the Middle East. The 5th Fleet ensure oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, and deters Iran. CBS News – 2/16 (Staff; “Navy's 5th Fleet in Bahrain Eyes Unrest Warily”; February 16, 2011; CJC Unrest surging through the Arab world has so far taken no toll on the American military. But that could change if revolt washes over the tiny Persian Gulf kingdom of Bahrain longtime home to the U.S. Navy's mighty 5th Fleet and arguably the Middle East anchor of U.S. defense strategy. The discontent that has spilled into the streets of Bahrain's capital, Manama, this week features no anti-American sentiment, but the U.S. has a lot at stake in preserving its dominant naval presence in the Gulf. In announcing that it is "very concerned" about violence linked to the
WASHINGTON protests, the State Department on Tuesday underscored Bahrain's strategic importance as a U.S. partner. "The United States welcomes the government of Bahrain's statements that it will investigate these deaths, and that it will take legal action against any unjustified use of force by Bahraini security forces," said department spokesman P.J. Crowley. "We urge that it follow through on these statements as quickly as possible." The 5th Fleet operates at least one aircraft carrier in the Gulf

Bahrain – 5th Fleet Thursday File

at all times, along with an "amphibious ready group" of ships with Marines aboard. Their presence is central to a longstanding U.S. commitment to ensuring the free flow of oil through the Gulf, while keeping an eye on a hostile Iran and seeking to deter piracy in the region. Anthony Cordesman, a Mideast defense specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Bahrain has security services capable of handling protesters and potentially backed by neighboring Saudi Arabia. Thousands of banner-waving protesters took over a main square in Manama
Tuesday in a bold attempt to copy Egypt's uprising. The demonstrations capped two days of clashes that left at least two people dead, and the king made a rare address on national television to offer condolences for the bloodshed. "It is a serious problem, but whether it's going to flare up any more seriously this time than all the other times is hard to say," Cordesman said. "The question is whether they can shake the security structure of the state." The implications for U.S. foreign policy and national security from the pro-democracy movements that have arisen in the Arab world - highlighted by Egypt's stunning revolution - is likely to be a topic Wednesday when Defense Secretary Robert Gates testifies before the House Armed Services Committee. Bahrain became a more prominent partner for the Pentagon after the 1991 Gulf War with Iraq; since then

it has granted U.S. forces increased access, plus permission to store wartime supplies for future crises.

Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 88/148 Thursday File

Bahrain Spillover -> Gulf Oil States
Bahrain uprising spillover would be sectarian spilling over into critical Gulf Oil states. Wall Street Journal – 2/16 (Joe Parkinson, Adam Entous, and Julian Barnes, Reporters for the Wall Street Journal; “Wave of Unrest Rolls Into Gulf”; FEBRUARY 16, 2011; mod=ITP_pageone_0#) CJC Bahrain is a tiny, island kingdom in the oil-rich Gulf best known for its banking prowess, along with bars that cater to
nationals from alcohol-free Saudi Arabia next door. It pumps little crude itself, but the protests here have brought home to neighboring oil-rich capitals—Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha and Riyadh—a taste of the turmoil that had largely been limited to much poorer corners of the Arab world. It's also the first country experiencing the recent unrest in which the

often-explosive sectarian divide between Sunni and Shiite Muslims has emerged in a meaningful way. Shiites make up small minorities in other recent hot spots, including Egypt, Jordan and Yemen, but religious tensions haven't been a driving factor in unrest in those places. A sustained Shiite uprising in Bahrain would alarm Sunni rulers in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, all Gulf countries with sizable Shiite minorities. They worry about the unrest spilling across their borders, and the possibility Iran would have more opportunities to meddle in the region. Gulf rulers are often quick to blame Iran for instigating trouble among Shiite populations, though real Iranian influence in those communities has been limited.

Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 89/148 Thursday File

Egypt -> Bahrain
Egypt has spilled over into Bahrain, threatening to out the Navy’s 5th Fleet and spillover throughout the Gulf region. NYT – 2/16 (Nicholas D. Kristof, Columnist; “Tunisia. Egypt. Bahrain?”; February 16, 2011; CJC
The gleaming banking center of Bahrain, one of those family-run autocratic Arab states that count as American allies, has become the latest reminder that authoritarian regimes are slow learners. Bahrain

is another Middle East domino wobbled by an angry youth — and it has struck back with volleys of tear gas, rubber bullets and even buckshot at completely peaceful protesters. In the early-morning hours on Thursday here in the Bahrain capital, it used deadly force to clear the throngs of pro-democracy protesters who had turned Pearl Square in the
center of the city into a local version of Tahrir Square in Cairo. This was the last spasm of brutality from a regime that has handled protests with an exceptionally heavy hand — and like the previous crackdowns,

this will further undermine the legitimacy of the government. “Egypt has infected Bahrain,” a young businessman, Husain, explained

to me as he trudged with a protest march snaking through Manama. Husain (I’m omitting some last names to protect those involved) said that Tunisia and Egypt awakened a sense of possibility inside him — and that his resolve only grew when Bahrain’s riot police first attacked completely peaceful protesters. When protesters held a funeral march for the first man killed by police, the authorities here then opened fire on the mourners, killing another person. “I was scared to participate,” Husain admitted. But he was so enraged that he decided that he couldn’t stay home any longer. So he became one of the countless thousands of prodemocracy protesters demanding far-reaching change. At first the protesters just wanted the release of political prisoners, an end to torture and less concentration of power in the al-Khalifa family that controls the country. But, now,

after the violence against peaceful protesters, the crowds increasingly are calling for the overthrow of the Khalifa family. Many would accept a British-style constitutional monarchy in which King Hamad, one of the Khalifas,
would reign without power. But an increasing number are calling for the ouster of the king himself. King Hamad gave a speech regretting the deaths of demonstrators, and he temporarily called off the police. By dispatching the riot police early Thursday morning, King Hamad underscored his vulnerability and his moral bankruptcy.

All of this puts the United States in a bind. Bahrain is a critical United States ally because it is home to the American Navy’s Fifth Fleet, and Washington has close relations with the Khalifa family. What’s more, in some ways Bahrain was a model for the
region. It gives women and minorities a far greater role than Saudi Arabia next door, it has achieved near universal literacy for women as well as men, and it has introduced some genuine democratic reforms. Of the 40 members of the (not powerful) Lower House of Parliament, 18 belong to an opposition party. Somewhat cruelly, on Wednesday I asked the foreign minister, Sheik Khalid Ahmed al-Khalifa, if he doesn’t owe his position to his family. He acknowledged the point but noted that Bahrain is changing and added that some day the country will have a foreign minister who is not a Khalifa. “It’s an evolving process,” he insisted, and he emphasized that Bahrain should be seen through the prism of its regional peer group. “Bahrain is in the Arabian gulf,” he noted. “It’s not in Lake Erie.” The problem is that Bahrain has educated its people and created a middle class that isn’t content to settle for crumbs beneath a paternalistic Arab potentate — and this

country is inherently unstable as a predominately Shiite country ruled by a Sunni royal family. That’s one reason Bahrain’s upheavals are sending a tremor through other gulf autocracies that oppress Shiites, not least Saudi Arabia. A. US-Israel relations are on the brink of collapsing. Failure by the US to appear engaged on the Egyptian crisis to prevent a takeover of the government by radicals, would be perceived by Israel as US abandonment. US must ensure continued diplomacy on the crisis to assure Israel and prevent an extremist takeover. Fabian – 2/15 (Jordan Fabian, Staff Writer at The Hill; “Israelis fretting over U.S. policy”; 02/15/11; CJC Israelis are worried about two more years of President Obama, and the crisis in Egypt is adding to their concerns. Israelis already have a cool relationship with Obama, who in
TEL AVIV, Israel — his first year as president called for an Israeli settlement freeze as a precondition to peace talks with the Palestinians. Obama’s 2009 speech in Cairo, which called for a “new beginning” between the West and the Muslim world, was also viewed with skepticism in Israel.

Now there are questions surrounding the leadership of Egypt, Israel’s traditional ally in the Arab world, as well as U.S. policy toward the Middle East. While Israelis uniformly recognize that the U.S.-Israel relationship is strong on the whole, many believe that the unrest in the Arab world could lead Obama to revert to familiar themes they view as hostile to their country’s interests. Former Israeli ambassador to the United States Zalman ***Israel Relations Shell***

” Barbour said in an address to the Herzliya Conference.) Russia. the problems the United States faces in the Persian Gulf stem from the fact that it does not have an Israel equivalent there. US-Israel relations key to Middle East stability Kramer 06 – fellow at The Washington Institute and senior fellow at the Olin Institute.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. but to keep the world’s great reserves of oil out of the grip of the West’s sworn enemies. Russia could feel compelled to attack the United States for acts like a U. It has compelled Israel’s key Arab neighbors to reach peace with Israel and to enter the American orbit. argued that a “point of view” has emerged in Washington that “Israel is a problem. the illusion of its unconditionality – underpins the pax Americana in the eastern Mediterranean. managed by the United States from offshore and without the commitment of any force. The United States has to counter them. Given suspected U. Three potential 2012 GOP candidates visited the Jewish state during the first five weeks of 2011. the Gulf keeps producing defiers of America. “Obama’s approach to the Middle East. Extinction Moore 9—BA in pol sci from Wayne State (Carol. would retaliate with thousands of nuclear bombs against the United States.” Fall 2006. It is.” could be viewed as even more harmful to Israel.php?CID=980) My answer. but against European and even Russian targets. nor is it produced by the machinations of the “Israel Lobby. In contrast. of course. when candidates often make pledges or take positions they are later pressured to act upon. Israel has expressed support for Egyptian democracy. simply.” American support for Israel -indeed. Some believe these campaign arguments could eventually become policy differences that would be detrimental to Israel. http://www. he placed his public focus on the Egyptian people’s struggle for democracy. when Israel makes such concessions. but their comments offered a preview of the coming GOP attacks.wordpress. supporting Israel has been a low-cost way of keeping order in part of the Middle East. The fact that there has not been a general Arab-Israeli war since 1973 is proof that this pax Americana. nuclear attack on Iran. Shoval said.S. None of the Republicans publicly criticized Obama. While Obama called for a “credible transition to democracy” in Egypt after President Hosni Mubarak formally stepped down on Friday. . and policymakers in both countries have said that the outcome could strain the American-Israeli relationship. and do so peacefully. not in the interests of Israel. The pressures of the campaign 90/148 Thursday File Shoval said in an interview that a continued Obama effort to reach out to the Muslim world will be read in Israel as an effort to push Israeli interests to the side. Martin. C. in return it is rewarded with nothing but more rocket attacks. Haley Barbour. has been a success. is this: United States support for Israel is not primarily the result of Holocaust guilt or shared democratic values. Since no one in the Gulf is sure that the United States has the staying power to maintain such a presence over time.S.” “People who hold this view feel themselves correct to demand from Israel an endless series of dangerous strategic concessions. The unrest in Egypt has prompted divergent responses from President Obama and the Israeli government. but it has voiced severe worry about the possibility of the country slipping into the hands of Islamic extremists who could undo its 1979 peace treaty with Israel. have already begun to reopen a split between Obama and his potential Republican rivals on the Middle East. nuclear primacy plans. [beginning with] his Cairo Israel is especially dangerous because its leaders and supporters have made clear for years that if Israel was ever devastated by any kind of war or attack it would retaliate in indiscriminate “Samson Option” attacks against not just on Muslim cities. B. based on the United States-Israel alliance. for example. Six Escalation Scenarios to Nuclear World War III.washingtoninstitute. Several potential Republican presidential candidates have called his response misguided. the ideal realist alliance. constructively and in the spirit of unity that has defined these last few weeks. and so it must massively deploy its own force at tremendous cost. Harvard (Dr. (See “Israeli Nuclear Threats and Blackmail ” . to anticipate my conclusion.” he said. 16 February. even though they should have learned by now. “The American From a realist point of view. Mississippi Gov.http://pakalert. “I am confident that the people of Egypt can find the answers. from Khomeini to Saddam to Bin Laden to Ahmadinejad.

. 1995 Boris Yeltsin.” The U. everyone else feels free to do 91/148 Thursday File which is just a few hundred miles from its border. leaders also could be spooked by a nuclear incident. “out of control spiral. as the 2002 movie “Sum of All Fears” illustrates. but once one does. came within three minutes of initiating a full nuclear strike on the United States because of one Norwegian scientific rocket Russians could not identify. imperialism and pre-emptive strikes cannot stop it. (Details ) And U. cannot stop it. Compare it to a room full of people embarrassed to cough. Any use of nuclear weapons probably will lead to a rapid escalation. it will be like giving permission for anyone to use them.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. Only a worldwide disarmament movement can stop it.S. On January 25.S. U.N.” to nuclear war among most or all nuclear nations–”world nuclear war. then President of Russia. Once there is any use of nuclear weapons.

. in http://online. Saudi Arabia and Israel. "Egyptians have made it clear that nothing President Barack Obama said the less than genuine democracy will carry the day. United Nations chief Ban Ki-moon said the army must allow free and fair elections to get back to civilian rule. “AT A GLANCE: Egypt's Mubarak Steps Down. Military Takes Over”. while acknowledging there will be tough days ahead. FEBRUARY 11. Arab League chief Amr Mussa hailed the Egyptian people and army for their "historic achievement" and called for national consensus.html) CJC Mubarak's departure marks the beginning of a new chapter in the Middle Eastern Thursday File Israel Brink Israel is on edge already." he said. 2011. threatening a decades long balance of power in the Mideast. European leaders.wsj. Wall Street Journal – 2/11 (Staff. one that he thinks will be difficult but more democratic. too. were united in calling for a swift transition to democracy.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 92/148 Cross-X. were put on the defensive as events rattled regional allies and foes alike.

The group itself is not secular. that it remains to be seen on Iran and he surmised they supported bringing ***Muslim Brotherhood*** . Sen. who has clarified his statements about the Muslim Brotherhood. February 16.cnn. expressed concern about whether the U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 93/148 Cross-X. D-California. CNN Reporter. Benson – 2/16 (Pam Benson. added he would assess they are not in favor of a peace treaty. Clapper said in an opening statement Washington (CNN) -to Thursday File A2: Brotherhood Not A Threat Your evidence is citing Director of National Intelligence Clapper.S. indicating that they are NOT a secular organization. In a series of questions to Clapper. said his comment last week was misunderstood and he only meant that the group is trying to work within secular political systems. Feinstein wanted to know the stated positions of the group with regards to the Middle East peace process. “Intel chief says his Muslim Brotherhood remark misunderstood”.but he weapons into Gaza. 2011. Clapper responded each time it was hard to say or he didn't know -. speaking to the Senate Intelligence Committee. Diane Feinstein. intelligence committee knew enough about the Brotherhood's positions. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper. ties to Iran and the smuggling of weapons into Gaza. the chair of the committee.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss %2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS%3A+Politics%29) CJC The nation's top intelligence officer sought to clarify Wednesday a comment that was roundly criticized when he said that the Muslim Brotherhood was a "secular" group.

In the scramble for power among groups of various political identity after last week's ouster of President Hosni Mubarak. the Brotherhood — an Islamist group that has held as many as 20% of the seats in Egypt's parliament in recent years — is vowing to increase its influence on daily life in Egypt. punishing gays. A man was hacking up a calf on a wood stump. said Abdel Fattah. chattering in Arabic at aides in dark suits and discussing honor" by stoning adulterers.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 94/148 Cross-X." Abdel Fattah said.htm) CJC Fattah. "Sharia law does not differ from the demands of the people. sat at a laminate table in plans for Egypt under democratic rule. "We basically want a government that will take on the demands of the people that were clear in the revolution of Tahrir Square. http://www. the "thump thump" of a cleaver could be heard just outside the unadorned office." . arranging the meat on a plastic sheet on the patio floor. spokesman for the long-banned Muslim Brotherhood. requiring Muslim women to cover their heads and shoulders in public and killing Muslims who leave their faith. A bright puddle of blood ran into the street as the animal was slaughtered for a feast celebrating the Brotherhood's hopes for the future. whose forehead bore the calluses of those who prostrate themselves five times a day in prayer. The Brotherhood would seek "the preservation of AIRO — Ali Abdel his office in South Thursday File Muslim Brotherhood Pushing For Control Muslim Brotherhood is pushing to take control of the government through elections. “Ideology shadows fight to rule the new Egypt”. 2/14/2011.usatoday. Reporter at USA TODAY. As he spoke late Saturday. answering phone Dorell – 2/14 (Oren Dorell.

They would get 30% if elections were held now. The movement gained 20% of seats in the parliament in 2005 when Mubarak. Selling scented oils to men outside a mosque in Giza.usatoday. a lawyer and human rights worker who deals with members of the Brotherhood.htm) CJC How strong is the Brotherhood? Estimates vary on the political support the Brotherhood has in Egypt." "A Muslim who does not practice regulations of Islam. Some conservative Muslims consider themselves more moderate and would not go along with an extremist program. However. Hezbollah did this despite having just 57 of the 128 seats in Lebanon's which would be enough to control the government. Makram-Ebeid estimates the Brotherhood would gain "only" 30% of parliament seats in elections involving 22 opposition parties she counts as vying for power. Mohamed Hossam Eldin Abdel Wahid. says they would get 50%. under pressure from the Bush administration on human rights issues. considers himself a conservative Muslim. Mohamed Zarea. a party could do a lot with such a percentage of the parliament's seats. allowed direct elections for the first time. he said "attacks based on religion are wrong.-designated terrorist group and enemy of Thursday File A2: Muslim Brotherhood Not Win Enough Seats Muslim Brotherhood would not have to win the majority." he said. who keeps a large red tinted beard and a floor-length ochre robe.S. “Ideology shadows fight to rule the new Egypt”. Hezbollah. Reporter at USA TODAY. last month toppled the government of the majority pro-Western parties in Lebanon and installed its own candidate as prime minister. Dorell – 2/14 (Oren Dorell. Wael Nawara of Al Ghad says the Brotherhood would gain 15% of the seats in an election today. 2/14/2011. a U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 95/148 Cross-X. is a sinful Muslim. . 56. He says he memorized the Quran during a 20-year detention under Mubarak's emergency laws. http://www. who's an extremist.

and serve as a distant “regent” until things cooled down. Ball worked hard for two weeks. State thought the shah was doomed and that Washington needed to reach some accommodation with the Khomeini camp. but also moderates. and expressed their willingness to launch a coup to keep the shah in power.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 96/148 Cross-X. and to flood the streets with troops and tanks. and prevented Washington from acting swiftly and decisively to steer the Iranian revolution in a moderate direction. The seven Iranian generals Huyser met with expressed their readiness to kill “100. Vance was horrified. The shah was finished. William Sullivan.S. which was still loyal to the shah. Geoffrey Wawro is the General Olinto Mark Barsanti Professor of Military History and Director of the Military History Center at the University of North Texas. What they needed—all seven declared—was unflinching U. backing. Both were triggered by new media—audiocassettes in Iran. Brzezinski drafted a letter for Carter to send to the shah that baldly enjoined him to use force against the demonstrators. or even topple the shah. Carter sent General Robert Huyser to speak with the senior Iranian generals and gauge their attitude. vomited out in “a national regurgitation by the Iranian people. and then met with Carter to render his verdict. ambassador in Tehran in 1970. Obama is speaking bluntly with Mubarak about the need for change. Washington did nothing. “You can tell a friend what you think. Wawro – 1/31 (Dr. just how Iranian demographics would shape the coming upheaval. Ball’s moderates were used-up hacks who wouldn’t stand a chance against Khomeini’s mobs. there was no credible moderate opposition to undergird a generals’ coup. beginning with Iran—that the Soviets might hijack. was undone by fights between Cyrus Vance’s State Department and Zbigniew Brzezinski’s National Security Council. ambassador in Tehran. Both simmered under the rule of corrupt strongmen who had held power for three decades.000 Iranians” if necessary.” As Carter reacted to events in Iran. The president must prop up the shah.S. Noting Carter’s hesitation. rifts in the U. Hosni Mubarak and Shah Muhammed Reza Pahlavi.” Carter protested. Carter appointed 68-yearold George Ball to sift through conflicting reports to determine just what the U.S. Administration hardliners wanted the shah to “get tough. What Huyser discovered was interesting.S.” a clear reference to Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood.S. “Geopolitics is not a kindergarten class. But decades of repression and fake elections had crushed Iran’s secular parties. The error in Tehran in 1979 was one of omission.S. turn affairs over to a reliable government. Both dynasts. Today in Cairo. who is surrounded by sycophants. Iranian generals met with the U. “I can’t tell another head of state what to do. Carter expressed astonishing diffidence. The revolutions in Cairo and Tehran have much in common.” Ball urged Carter to tell the shah to leave Iran. and Lebanese emergencies. President Obama is facing similar hard Thursday File Egypt – Influence K2 Avoid Islam Rise American support is critical to ensure a transition that does not give power to the radical Muslim Brotherhood. who they assumed would open corruption investigations that would lead back to the military.000 deaths. When the shah left Iran in January 1979 to have his cancer treated. Just before the regime began to totter in 1978. The letter was never sent. Frozen by opposing views. Another wave of riots swept through Tehran in January 1979. Egyptian. the U. The Obama team should be looking closely at Washington’s awful mismanagement of the Iranian revolution of 1978-79 to make sure they do not repeat the errors of the Carter administration. to reassure allies and deter the Soviets. Since most Iranians were “poorly educated and highly ignorant. The president has called for an “orderly transition. strong internal security services and powerful. Brzezinski reopened his attack. and warned Carter that Brzezinski was recommending a course that would end in “1. Brzezinski spoke of an “arc of crisis” in the Middle East—a wave of unrest in Islamic countries. Carter’s CIA had predicted that nothing much would change in Iran through 1985: “Iran is not in a revolutionary or even pre-revolutionary situation. would have to vest its hopes in the Iranian military. “One of the obligations of friendship is to give advice. but must hold on to police powers and military and foreign affairs. to shut down the press. government confused and demoralized him.” to re-arrest political prisoners. particularly to a man who is cut off from the normal sources. Although Brzezinski and Brown in . pro-Khomeini demonstrations broke out in every Iranian city. to restore the shah or an authoritarian regime. with astonishing accuracy. Both had complex societies. The strategic threat of that—then and now—was outlined by the U.S. Just as we today worry that fundamentalists might hijack the Tunisian.” Carter refused to have that conversation with the shah. and set up a moderate caretaker government.” Ball persisted. with big swollen cities like Cairo and Tehran containing both the most and least educated people in the country: a relatively narrow educated elite and a broad mass of slum-dwellers. He is the author of Quicksand: America’s Pursuit of Power in the Middle East. U. Such a plan. No. In December 1978.” and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has warned there must not be “a takeover that would lead to oppression. Twitter and Facebook in Egypt—and both exploded in major regional states.thedailybeast. purge the fundamentalist opposition.” The Carter administration was as startled by the revolution in Tehran as Obama was by the wave of revolutions from Tunis to Cairo.” America’s wisest course now would be to “work out the transfer of power to responsible hands before Khomeini comes back and messes everything up.” he reminded the president. read classified and unclassified reports from all sources. More than just the right words will be needed.” others thought tens of thousands. http://www.” to borrow Hillary Clinton’s phrase. which held the most promise in late 1978. with big CJC So far the Obama administration seems to be getting it right on Egypt. Fortunately. Jordanian. were regarded in Washington as “family friends. The generals feared the Islamists. “1/31/2011.-supplied militaries. Only the Shiite clergy—like the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt—remained intact and powerful as a political force. when he predicted. Brzezinski (joined by Defense Secretary Harold Brown and Energy Secretary James Schlesinger) thought the shah might relinquish some domestic authority.” any truly democratic movement would “be in a reactionary obscurantist direction under the clergy. ought to do about Iran.

and that the U. exiled. Khomeini’s komitehs— Islamic militias and revolutionary courts—were rounding up the shah’s courtiers. and politicians in the vain hope that they would counter Khomeini’s radicalism and step in if the ayatollah’s movement unraveled. The president still effectively controlled the Iranian generals and might have fashioned a moderate reform coalition under their aegis. most were arrested. Just as Egyptian fighter jets are orbiting Cairo in a show of strength.S. Carter decided that Iran was Khomeini’s. our Iran policy fell with him. which has vexed and weakened American policy for more than 30 years.” None of this will be easily accomplished. rather than in a country. refusing even to dispatch a carrier to the Persian Gulf. but Carter remained inert. he relayed the request to Washington. The imperial military’s hour had seemingly arrived. came to naught. officers. Carter must have wished he had heeded the warning.” (When the embassy was actually seized eight months later. Instead. The generals made a last appeal to Ambassador Sullivan for support. The Iranian generals threw in the towel. “In Iran.) With Washington in retreat. who will loosen their grip but not permit the Muslim Brotherhood to knock over a “national unity government” as easily as Khomeini crushed Iran’s first. Sullivan cabled Washington on February 27. credible opposition moderates like Mohamed ElBaradei must be empowered to move the country forward without a breakdown in security or an Islamist coup.” an American colonel named Colin Powell observed from the Pentagon. and helped usher in the Islamic Republic of Thursday File Washington and General Alexander Haig at NATO headquarters in Belgium were still for unleashing the Iranian military against the ayatollahs—“give the officers a go-ahead. He and his subordinates recommended the embassy staff be reduced to “six officers and a vicious dog. or shot. and America has only an auxiliary role. The army stood down and let the demonstrations disarm it.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 97/148 Cross-X. But the hand we played in 1979 was self-nullifying. mixed “provisional revolutionary government. the Iranian air force did the same in early February 1979. Embassy could no longer be protected. The Egyptian army must be restrained. all our investment in an individual. It wasn’t.” Brown urged Brzezinski—Carter refused to roll the dice. the generals declared “neutrality”. “When the shah fell. . Carter selected a negative program: merely cultivating contacts with moderate Islamic clergy. He must move fast and deal bluntly with President Mubarak. warning that anti-American sentiment was boiling over in the streets and the press.” President Obama is now holding our Egypt policy in his hands. Mubarak should turn power over to a respected politician bolstered by Omar Suleiman’s reformed security services.

especially if any such blockade includes Egypt’s critical Sumed pipeline.S. prices have soared about 7 percent. but that’s a risk.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 98/148 Cross-X. speaking on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” said Monday. up to more than $92 per barrel. when the first huge demonstrations rocked Cairo. If a new Egyptian government. experts say. . “Egypt: Worst scenarios for W.” Oil traders have begun factoring in that risk: Since Friday. perhaps one dominated by the Thursday File Brotherhood = Price Spikes Muslim Brotherhood control risks cutting off Oil from the Middle East devastating our econ recover and causing Oil Spikes. Muslim Brotherhood.H.”.cfm? uuid=DE7516BA-D472-D8ED-D73BCE853D37CED6) CJC Egypt produces no oil and is hardly an economic powerhouse with global reach. the market doesn’t think it’s all that “Right now. tankers would be forced to undertake the six-to-eight-week trek around the Horn of Africa. That could have a disastrous impact on an economy that has just begun picking up steam. February 1. 2011. pinch point of the Mideast oil supply. decides to block the canal. POLITICO – 2/1 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico and Mike Allen is the chief political correspondent for Politico and Laura Rozen is a reporter at POLITICO.” former Obama car czar Steve Rattner.politico. “The question is whether that supply gets cut off at some point. http://dyn. driving per-barrel prices to $120 or more and gas prices at the pump well beyond $4 a gallon. but it controls the Suez Canal.

fortune/index. is now leading the opposition groups' newly formed steering committee. but noteworthy energy sector. who won a Nobel Peacce Prize for his leadership of the IAEA. much of which is recycled back to US defense contractors like Boeing (BA. The most powerful group with the largest following usually comes out on top. It has said it wants to establish Sharia (Islamic) law in the country and ban all women and Christians from government (Christians make up 10% of the population of Egypt). a banned Islamic resistance movement that is not on the friendliest of terms with the West. have banded together to oust Mubarak. What is clear is that US economic interests in the entire region would be at risk if Egypt falls under the veil of Islamic fundamentalism. Fortune 500). It's not without reason. did not come about overnight. Fortune 500). it will probably spell bad news for the western companies operating in the country. especially the United States. In Iran. The protests in 1978 and 1979. totally off guard. They eventually turned on their former coalition partners and wiped them out. The largest and most organized of the opposition groups is the Muslim Brotherhood. That could hurt the sales of companies like ConAgra (CAG. CNN Money – 1/31 (Cyrus Sanati. ranging from US foes like Syria to staunch US FORTUNE -allies like Jordan and Saudi Arabia. bringing about the angst that we see today. contributor. But no company has more exposure to the energy sector in Egypt like Apache Corporation (APA. who is critical of President Obama's reluctance to call for Mubarak's resignation. Fortune 500) and Cargill. A possible revolution in the most populous and influential nation in the Arab world shouldn't be taken lightly given the possibility of an anti-Western government coming to power in Thursday File Brotherhood = Econ Collapse Muslim Brotherhood coming into power would collapse Western economies. ADM ( billion in military aid to Egypt. from liberals to Islamic fundamentalists. and the US State m) CJC The recent demonstrations in Egypt have rocked world markets and sent investors scrambling for the exits.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 99/148 Cross-X. like the F-4 and F-16 attack fighters. Such a scenario could occur in Egypt. the Islamic fundamentalists had the poor firmly in their grasp and used their mass to overwhelm the other groups. 2011. Fortune 500). . It has no formal connection with Washington but it does have strong ties to Tehran. Disparate Egyptian opposition groups. There are of course very large differences between Arab Egypt today and Persian Iran 32 years ago. The US also delivers $1. So if Egypt falls to an Islamic theocracy. which led to the establishment of an anti-western Islamic Republic. Egypt now accounts for a quarter of the company's earnings. seemed to catch the world. The revolution that swept Iran and seems to be festering in Egypt. but the economic backdrop is similar. “Biggest corporate stakes in Egypt's power shift”. Fortune 500). Egypt also has a small. Fortune 500) and Raytheon (RTN. A confluence of economic changes in both countries helped widen the divide between the rich and the poor. The scenes from the protests in Egypt look eerily similar to ones that swept Iran 32 years ago. Mohamed El Baradei.cnn. General Dynamics (GD. Apache's large investment in Egypt has not gone unnoticed by the markets. El Baradei. Northrup Grumman (NOC. which funds their activities. is pushing for a peaceful transition to democracy. making up around 10% of Egypt's total imports. Fortune 500). January 31. The United States is a major exporter to the country. It is by far the largest US investor in Egypt. which has alleviated some fears on Wall Street and Washington. corn and soybeans to Egypt averaging around $2 billion a year. They provide support for older US-made military equipment. That is equivalent to about 50% of the estimated value of Apache's Egyptian assets. with a total investment of more than $7 billion over the past 17 years. and has several western energy companies working in the country. like in Egypt. Fortune 500). It's not yet clear what kind of government would emerge if the current autocratic regime led by President Hosni Mubarak were to fall. The US supplies wheat. Western business in an Islamic theocracy But a revolution can quickly turn. European oil companies like the UK's BP (BP) and Italy's ENI (E) have had a major presence in the country for decades drilling for oil and gas. and also sell Egypt new weapons. Lockheed Martin (LMT. http://money. They seemed to have sprung out of nowhere but offered some hope that the dictator ruling the country would fall to a more democratic regime. Wall Street has wiped $5 billion off Apache's market value since the riots began amid fears that a new government could expropriate their land concessions. It could lead to the expulsion of US and Western companies from Egypt and threaten the stability of more secular Arab states.

If Egypt falls. February 2. with each new theocratic conquest destabilizing its neighbor. he will pay for it politically in 2012. it is a wolf in sheep's clothing. they could control the region. Obama will have permanently damaged America's vital whose domestic policy initiatives are coming apart at the seams. to be sure. But losing Egypt to the grip of Islamic fundamentalism would be a huge blow to the United States. Morris – 2/2 (Dick Morris. By failing to back Mubarak. . "Who lost China?" Obama may well have to explain how and why he lost Egypt. their 154 million almost equal the combined population of all the other nations in North Africa and the Middle East. Look at what Carter's abandonment of the Shah has cost the world and is likely to cost it in the future. Obama is committing the same sin that Dwight Eisenhower did in Cuba and Jimmy Carter did in Iran. Thursday File Brotherhood = ME Instability Allowing the Muslim Brotherhood in the door would open all of the Middle East to extremism undermining American leadership globally and completely destabilizing the Middle East. But his policy of appeasement toward radical Islam has yet to have any bad consequence. His re-election hopes may be doomed if Iran takes over. If he permits Egypt to slip through our fingers and go over to the Iranian sphere of influence. Together. To the extent that it masquerades as a peaceful body. to Israel and to the entire Western world. He needs to understand that the radical Islamists mean us ill and that any effort to appease them is bound to fail. It would literally open the door to a theocratic Iranian-style empire stretching from Morocco to Iran. “ Obama Following a Very Risky Strategy With Egypt”. Inspired by an Islamic takeover in Egypt. Imagine if this president. We now face the possibility that a radicalized Egypt could be Obama's gift to the globe. If Egypt and Iran were to work in tandem. The Muslim Brotherhood is allied closely with Hamas. The Muslim Brotherhood will take over if it gets its foot in the door. but none have risen to the level of a cataclysm. he may find himself confronted with a Middle Eastern version of the old domino theory. a former political adviser to Sen. Americans have regarded Obama's flirtation with the Arab street with a mild concern that he may be too naive in his understanding of that part of the world.html) CJC Obama better hope that the crowds clamoring for an overthrow of the Hosni Mubarak regime really do achieve a functioning liberal democracy rather than an Iranian-style theocracy. Any coalition with the Brotherhood is as likely to remain secular as Adolf Hitler's early coalition with Paul von Hindenburg in Germany was likely to stay non-Nazi. Just as Richard Nixon helped to discredit Harry Truman President and defeat Democratic presidential nominee Adlai Stevenson in 1952 by trumpeting the question. Remember that Iran has a population of 79 million and Egypt has 75 million. where one nation after another falls to Islamism. We have had some terror attacks. Trent Lott (R-Miss.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 100/148 Cross-X. loses office over a foreign policy blunder.realclearpolitics. Until now.) and President Bill Clinton. 2011.

February 3. Political Reporter. against Bush. But this support remained cautious. between the Mubarak regime and the "spoilt children of Egypt's middle classes" -. was chief UN atomic weapons inspector -- .realclearpolitics. when he is now well placed for the succession to Hosni Mubarak. Mohamed ElBaradei -. many imams apparently told their flocks to go swell the demonstrators' ranks. "until fresh factors come into play. http://www. The latter have reached for power fairly CJC Four days ago I wrote that. and is the Muslim Brotherhood appropriating the revolution. at Friday prayers. Warren – 2/3 (David Warren. 2011.because the Egyptian army is distancing itself from him -.the man who ran interference for the Iranian regime. “Face in the Crowd”. with the support of the Muslim Thursday File Muslim Brother Hood Pushing For Power Muslim Brotherhood is rising to take power. At first they presented themselves as entirely neutral. Then.inspired by the riots in Tunisia to try their luck in Tahrir Square. "No one can predict what will come of" the Egyptian demonstrations. Only now that Mubarak's position is untenable -.are the valves fully opening." Let me update that.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 101/148 Cross-X.

” Even if Egypt and Israel don’t come to blows. http://dyn.S. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been meeting around the clock with Israel. is that any new Egyptian regime will almost certainly adopt a more militant stance toward its partner in peace for more than three decades.politico.”. according to administration officials. “But the illusion of a real peace with Israel is over. February 1. “Egypt: Worst scenarios for W. 2011. In fact. push Obama — a president who vowed to improve relations with the Arab world — back into a much closer alliance with Israel after two years of tense relations with the traditional U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 102/148 Cross-X.” Munayyer added.H. And that could. POLITICO – 2/1 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico and Mike Allen is the chief political correspondent for Politico and Laura Rozen is a reporter at POLITICO.cfm?uuid=DE7516BA-D472-D8EDD73BCE853D37CED6) CJC The most obvious danger. one of the reasons the Egyptian army remains so popular among its people was its near success against Israel during the bloody Yom Kippur war in 1973. . a more militant Cairo could wipe out whatever remaining hope lingered for an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal. ally in the region. “We’re not talking about another war. gaming out the various scenarios — ranging from chillier relations to A new Egypt-Israel conflict Nasser-type saber rattling in Thursday File Brotherhood = No MEPP Radical takeover will undermine Egypt-Israel Peace Accords and gut any possibility of a successful MEPP. perversely.

that will be most crucial in determining what happens next. Time is needed anyway for changes to be made in the constitution to allow for more democracy. The military will be a critical partner in the transition government and checking back extremist rise. if not the protesters -. Martin Indyk.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 103/148 Cross-X. While Egypt is still in flux. The Australian – 2/4 (“High stakes in the square”. that "the militaries will remain the ultimate powerbrokers" in the Middle East. argued on ABC TV Lateline on Wednesday night that Egyptians will not accept a process overseen by Mr Mubarak because they "simply do not trust him to ensure there will be a free and fair election". it appears CJC The immediate question is how to move forward. In the short term. even when successful.witness the deposition of the shah in 1979 that ushered in the Islamic republic in Iran. it is the military -. whatever the especially given the divergence of views between Washington and Cairo about the timetable for change and the role that should be played by Mr Thursday File Transition K2 Check Muslim Brotherhood Timing is everything. The US must ensure that there is a transition government. Immediate elections would result in a takeover by the Muslim Brotherhood. The challenge for Egypt's powerbrokers is to increase popular participation in the life of the nation. The respected Middle East commentator and former US ambassador to Israel. are unpredictable -. appear to be looking for an interim government that would minimise Mr Mubarak's role and give everyone a chance to regroup.witness the failures of the 2009 Green Movement in Iran and the Cedar Revolution in Lebanon in 2005. as commentator Daniel Pipes wrote in this newspaper on Wednesday. The 82-year-old leader is the sticking point. Those impatient for change should remember that revolutions. The Americans.which continues to position itself on the side of the people. But with the clashes continuing overnight. . http://www. how long before anarchy forces the hand of the military? Some have wanted to present Tahrir Square as the "Berlin Wall" of the Middle East. The army did not intervene in the chaotic events in Tahrir Square yesterday as pro-Mubarak riders on horses and camels clashed with the anti-government protesters. but popular protests do not always bear fruit -.theaustralian. 2011. anxious that immediate elections would open wide the door to the Muslim Brotherhood (outlawed but experienced in running independent candidates at earlier elections) in the absence of other strong opposition parties. but ensure that in the process extremist Islam does not secure a foothold. February 04. A post-Mubarak Egypt is inevitable.

Confusion about the Muslim Brotherhood is not limited to journalists. ***Foreign Aid*** . “Beware the Muslim Brotherhood”. ambassador." said John Podhoretz of Commentary magazine. once described the Ayatollah Khomeini as "some kind of saint." The Muslim brothers are bad Thursday File A2: Muslim Brotherhood Not Threat Claims of Muslim Brotherhood moderation have no warrants. Andrew Young. http://www. They are based on ignorance of reality.which have been dominated by young people who seem genuinely interested in freedom and democracy -. Kelly – 2/13 (Jack is the father of all current terror groups in the Middle East.N. they fail to mention that its goals are similar to al-Qaida's. described the brotherhood as "largely secular. President Jimmy Carter's ml) CJC When journalists tout the brotherhood's "moderation" because it has publicly eschewed violence.realclearpolitics. 2011. that it grew to prominence because of its alliance with Adolf Hitler and that -. was a deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force in the Reagan administration. But they seem to have been as surprised by the protests -.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 104/148 Cross-X. Obama administration cluelessness about the brotherhood is dangerously reminiscent of Carter administration policy toward Iran in 1979.according to Kuwait's education minister -. February James Clapper. In testimony to the House Intelligence Committee Thursday. the Director of National the Obama administration was." "This is one of the most reckless and irresponsible statements ever made publicly by an American official at a critical and delicate moment. a former Marine and Green Beret.

com/article/BT-CO-20110211-713327. if it becomes necessary. “Public Praise. warned annual U. 2011. "President Mubarak's decision to stand down from future leadership of the government is welcome. and he renewed a threat to withhold aid from Egypt if it necessary to push for democracy Thursday File Congress Cut Aid Congress would cut aid if it felt Egyptian Military was going the wrong direction.html) CJC" said Senator Patrick Leahy. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”.wsj. Reuters – 2/1 (Caren Bohan and Andrew Quinn. who heads the committee responsible for yearly spending on diplomacy and international aid. “The Egyptian people are demanding a meaningful and irreversible transition to democracy. including peace with Israel. The U.reuters.). Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC U. but his continued role in Egypt's transition is unrealistic.S. http://www." Leahy. Feb 13. Staff.” Congress will cut aid if military fails to ensure transition. Feb 1. aid to Egypt could be "at risk" if Cairo's military thwarts a transition to democratic rule. “I urge the Egyptian military to faithfully support and secure the coming process of political change in Egypt. http://online.. reporter for Bloomberg News. Patrick Leahy (D. Failure for Obama to get results means that Congress will take action and cut off aid to Egypt. “AT A GLANCE: Egypt's Mubarak Steps Down. Vt. Military Takes Over”. Some . http://www.html) CJC Congress could cut back the aid if Egypt moves in a direction contrary to U. withholding aid to the government. Wall Street Journal – 2/11 (Staff. Later Friday. "We (the United States) should do what we can to support a transition to democracy including. 2011.S. lawmakers also reacted with skepticism to Mubarak's announcement. “Obama says change in Egypt "must begin now"”. a Democrat.S. senator who oversees foreign aid said Mubarak had no credibility to oversee Egypt's transition.S. policy. who chairs the Senate appropriations subcommittee that approves U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 105/148 Cross-X. foreign aid. FEBRUARY 11.” said Arizona Senator John McCain. the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee. feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC U. That could lead to a battle over withholding aid to Egypt later this month. but if the issue is not resolved they are willing to gut it. Much depends on events between now and then.S.5 billion a year. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”. but they are watching to see where unrest there leads. aid to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's government. For now. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Thursday File Aid: Peaceful Transition K2 Prevent Cut US won’t cut aid now.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 106/148 Cross-X. lawmakers are unlikely to slash American aid to Egypt quickly. congressional aides and analysts said on Wednesday. which has been running at $1. Views of the Egyptian turmoil vary on Capitol Hill.S. the Republican-run House of Representatives seems more cautious than the Democratic-run Senate about cutting U. when lawmakers will get an opportunity to make changes. Staff. WASHINGTON (Reuters) - . http://www. Feb 2.reuters.

story) CJC A policy of the Mubarak regime that is likely — but not guaranteed — to survive the transition is Egypt's intimate relationship with the United States. Anti-Americanism has been a minor theme in the protests. 2011. (and the military aid that accompanies it). both sides in Egypt have been aggressively appealing for support from the Obama administration. The army. and on Sunday Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton finally announced U. Obama’s advisers believed that the informal checks and balances that had kept Egypt firmly in America’s corner would continue with or without Mubarak. The military connection is the only way that US-Egypt relations will remain and aid is the lynch-pin. Obama turned his intelligence briefing into a seminar about Egypt. and there are strong http://www. LA Times – 2/3 (Staff. its membership ranks were fewer than polls showed.5 billion in annual aid to Egypt." Both in public and in every other communications channel. for the military.washingtonpost. siding with the police would be tantamount to abandoning the U.html) CJC The most misguided assertion in Washington holds that the United States lacks the capacity to influence the outcome of the Egyptian crisis. a legacy of the SadatBegin peace accord. In fact. values the relationship with the U.S. Washington Post – 1/31 (Editorial Staff.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 107/148 Cross-X. The strong secular undercurrent in most major Egyptian cities kept the Brotherhood in check as much as the heavy-handed security forces did. Aid is critical to the US continuing to have and for good reason .S. US has the necessary influence to shape the outcome in Egypt because of its Aid package.6393912. http://www. support for a "transition" to "real democracy. On Friday morning. January 31. . 2011. peppering his foreign policy team with questions about the relationship between Egyptian police and the military. February 1.S. including well more than $1 billion for the Egyptian military. That is why they did not fight protestors. 2011. Publicly insinuating that future money would be conditioned on how Egyptian leaders handled the protesters demand was less of a direct threat than simply the application of direct leverage: Mubarak would have to tread lightly when ordering his military to backstop his police. The military was the key: most of the more then $1 billion in annual aid. “A White House Policy on Egypt Evolves”.0. Ambinder – 2/1 (Marc Ambinder is the White House Correspondent for National Journal CJC The Brotherhood had done a poor job of recruiting young Egyptians. which is a much respected and highly influential institution.S.nationaljournal.the United States supplies $1. educational and economic ties between the two countries built over many years. The White House has rightly hinted that that aid is now at stake. flows directly to them. “Egypt after Mubarak”. and it mostly reflected outrage over the slowness of the United States to dissociate itself from Mubarak. press secretary Robert Gibbs seemed to imply that further U. February 3.latimes. http://www. “Misconceptions about the Egyptian crisis”. aid to Egypt would be contingent upon the country’s reactions to the Thursday File Aid K2 Leverage Aid to Egypt gives the US direct influence over the military. During his mid-day press briefing Friday. the administration should be making explicit the connection between future funding for the Egyptian military and that democratic transition. which had reached gale-force size.

2011. http://www. .com Thursday File Aid K2 Arms Sales Cutting aid to Egypt puts the brakes on billions of dollars in regional arms sales. analysts say. The unrest in Egypt and other Middle Eastern countries could put the brakes on billions of dollars of arms sales to the entire region.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 108/148 Cross-X. Staff. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell. Feb 2. aid to Egypt is military and has gone for things like M1A1 Abrams battle tanks and F-16 fighter feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Most U. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”.S.reuters.

the administration can stop that money at any time. 2011." Leahy told Reuters Insider Television. Leahy suggested on Wednesday that Washington should think about economic aid for a new government in Cairo." he said. http://www. House and Strohm – 2/2 (Billy House is a Congress writer for National Journal." "Those would be very appropriate areas to spend American aid. Congress will cut aid to speed up the transition. our policies. State Department spokesman feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Democratic Senator Patrick Leahy chairs the Senate subcommittee in charge of foreign aid and has taken a harder line on continuing aid to the Mubarak government. . Feb 2.J. "There is money in the CJC In his own statement. and our values. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”. "But it's certainly not going to be spent on a government that must leave and is dragging its feet on leaving. "There are stipulations in terms of the behavior of recipients of our assistance." he added. 2011. we'll make adjustments as we need to. Questions of Aid Get Complicated”. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell. Feb 2. if it becomes necessary. referring to the Mubarak government. 2011.nationaljournal.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 109/148 Cross-X. “The welcome restraint and professionalism shown by the Egyptian Army so far is a testament to the long relationship between our two countries. which he says has "no credibility" to oversee the transition to democracy. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell. Staff. withholding aid to the government. Senate is willing to gut aid quickly.” “But we should do what we can to support a transition to democracy including. Chris Strohm covers homeland security and intelligence for National Journal feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Leahy added the Obama administration could stop spending money already appropriated by Congress for this year. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”.com Thursday File Aid Cut Quickly Obama can cut off aid in the pipeline immediately if there is not a peaceful resolution. Staff. http://www. http://www. “Post-Mubarak. Crowley said last week the United States would continue to monitor how Egypt's military responds to the crisis -suggesting that a major army intervention to put down protests might trigger a change. Leahy said." he said. And obviously. saying he hoped for a transition to a government that would address joblessness and hunger and "the suffering of the people. if aid is used in a way that is contrary to our laws. February 2.” he said.reuters.

Senate will wait to act until after house which means they can reconcile the difference. .reuters. 2011. "It is critical that we are deliberate about the actions we take.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 110/148 Cross-X. Feb 2. response to events in Egypt will feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC The House Republican who chairs the committee on foreign aid. I am continuing to monitor the events on the ground very closely. The Democratic-run Senate will act on the funding bill after the House. The chambers would then have to work out their differences. Staff. Representative Kay Granger. urged caution this week in deciding what the U. and might take a different approach. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt” Thursday File Egypt – A2: No Aid Cut – Budget Aid can be cut in the coming budget. Egypt has been a moderate influence in the Middle East and has a peace agreement with Israel. http://www." Granger said. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell.

2011. which runs about $1.S. http://www. Feb 2. military aid to Egypt. It is based on the work that we've done together. "Our assistance to Egypt is longstanding. officials have indicated it would not be quickly cut off.S.S. struggles for policy”. Our relationship has been a stabilizing one. urges restraint in Egypt. would be reviewed as events unfold but U. ***Iran*** .com Thursday File Egypt – Aid On Table US is putting the question of Aid to Egypt on the table.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 111/148 feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC The White House said last week U. “U.3 billion per year. Reuters – 2/2 (Arshad Mohammed and Andrew Quinn." State's Crowley said on Monday.reuters.

near-certain threat of government-backed. make the situation in Iran more unstable.” said Anthony Cordesman. which lessens the extent to which the State Department and the White House have to conduct diplomatic back flips in their public statements. potentially. US must stay focused on a country by country basis. “Basic problem that you face here is that you have to deal with this country by country. “W. has been careful to speak with a unified voice — including efforts to spread democracy to Iran. Unlike Egypt’s scenario.politico. The administration’s response to protests in Tehran on Monday largely mirrored its public statements three weeks ago after demonstrators filled the streets of Cairo. coupled with near-complete suppression of the media. more dangerous. Phillip – 2/15 (Abby Phillip is a staff writer. The White House and the State Department. which drew flak for sending mixed messages during the crisis. unrest in Iran has festered for more than a year — which analysts believe has prepared the Ahmadinejad regime to respond swiftly to threats of opposition. Unlike Mubarak. 2/15/11. the diplomatic scenarios in Iran are dramatically different. It ensures stable transitions between regimes. who served as an Iranian affairs adviser in the Bush-era State Department.” Maloney said. “What I think was so powerful.” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told reporters Monday. “Iran has been in a period of turmoil now for a full 18 months.” Administration officials are monitoring events in Iran closely and attempting to gauge whether the latest street demonstrations will gain momentum. some of the same activists who led Iran’s failed Green Revolution in 2009 are taking to the streets again — and facing the same.” By contrast. unpredictable and. The uprising in Iran can be successful with continued effective US diplomacy. “They’re watching for Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a U. which the White House openly admitted came as a surprise. “Let me very clearly and directly support the aspirations of the people who are in the streets in Iran today.html) CJC A second test of President Barack Obama’s Middle East foreign policy is brewing in the streets of Tehran this week. adversary and the subject of United Nations sanctions. the Iranian regime has learned from last year’s protests and the outcome in Egypt — lessons that could prompt the government to launch a more systematic and unbridled crackdown on Thursday File Diplomacy = Iran Transition Continued focus for our diplomacy efforts is critical in the Middle East. http://www.” At the same time. Maloney said. day in and day out. “There’s no real way to predict which of the pressures for change [in the Mideast] are going to become serious and reach a crisis point.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 112/148 Cross-X. was simply that this came out of nowhere.” said Suzanne Maloney.H. violent repression.S. and what set the Egyptian government so off-kilter. Following the popular uprising in Egypt that toppled the 30-year authoritarian regime of President Hosni Mubarak. a national security policy chairman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “We wish the opposition and the brave people in the streets across cities in Iran the same opportunity that they saw the Egyptians seize. . The Obama administration also learned from the Egyptian revolution. takes Egypt wisdom to Iran”. But the absence of a diplomatic relationship.

com Thursday File ***** Affirmative Answers***** .Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 113/148 Cross-X.

which met with Defense Minister Hussein Tantawi on Tuesday. a former U. now suspended by the military. The panel's convening indicated the military was trying to push ahead quickly with a transition after Mubarak resigned Friday in the face of 18 days of unprecedented popular protests that massed hundreds of thousands. end the monopoly that ousted President Hosni Mubarak's ruling party once held. also includes a Christian supreme court judge. “The fact that we have a good relationship means that they’re going to listen to you. assistance. The military's choices for the panel's makeup were a sign of the new political legitimacy of the Muslim Brotherhood. assistance as part of a two-way bargain. • consider ways to collaborate with the private sector to employ best practices for measuring efforts to inform and influence target audiences. a widely respected former judge and scholar who was once a secular leftist but later became one of the most foremost thinkers of what Egyptians refer to as the "moderate Islamic" political trend and is seen as a bridge between the movements. Sun News – 2/14 (LEE KEATH and HAMZA HENDAWI . US does not have influence over Egyptian military.html#storylink=mirelated) CJC Egypt's long banned Muslim Brotherhood said Tuesday it intends to form a political party once democracy is established. the fundamentalist group that was the most bitter rival of Mubarak's regime.” The Egyptian military may also have acquired some of its professional standards and . because of its relative professionalism and its view of U. “Public Praise. Among the panel's members is Sobhi Saleh. GAO 2003 (Government Accountability Office. GAO-03-951. one of its members Mohammed Hassanein Abdel-Al. Diplomatic capital doesn’t trade off – the state department can collaborate and hire more people to avoid any tradeoff. unleashed by the they’ll make the decision based on what is best in the Egyptians’ national interest. even after more than 30 years and billions of dollars of U. lobbyist for Egypt who’s now a scholar for the Middle East Institute in Washington. execution. 2011. public diplomacy efforts. not that they’re going to follow you.within 10 days . 2. including expanded use of opinion research and better designate more administrative positions to overseas public affairs sections to reduce the administrative burden.html) CJC The Egyptian military can afford to exercise its independence from foreign interference. “U. The panel is headed by Tareq el-Bishri. The eight-member committee. “Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood plans political party”. 14. to be thrown out completely and rewritten to ensure no one can once again establish autocratic rule.S. • strengthen efforts to train Foreign Service officers in foreign languages.S. Two members on the panel said the next elected government could further change the document if it http://www. reporter for Bloomberg News. The initial changes may not be enough for many in Egypt calling for the current constitution. a former lawmaker from the Brotherhood seen as part of its reformist wing.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 114/148 Thursday File ***2AC F/L*** 1. The military is now also urging an end to labor strikes that spread wildly across the country Sunday and Monday. use of existing research. Feb.”. • 3. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger.S. CAIRO -which it ensured through widespread election rigging. along with other judges and legal experts.” said Graeme Bannerman. we recommend that the Secretary of State • develop and widely disseminate throughout the department a strategy that considers the techniques of private sector public relations firms in integrating all of State’s public diplomacy efforts and directing them toward achieving common and measurable objectives. as the country's new military rulers launched a panel of experts to amend the country's constitution enough to allow democratic elections later this year. “In the end. and • program adequate time for public diplomacy training into State’s assignment process. Feb 13. Non-Unique: Muslim Brotherhood has already been included in the current negotiations and elections are coming fast. and assessment of U. http://www.Associated Press reporters. a legal scholar told The Associated Press.S. EBSCO) To improve the planning. 4 September 2003. officials and analysts say. Public Diplomacy: State Department Expands Efforts but Faces Significant Challenges: GAO-03-951. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. The panel is to draw up changes at a breakneck pace .

US diplomacy is ineffective – countries will say no and conflicts are escalating now. But there were also brilliant achievements: the Marshall Plan. In the end. who help them adapt to the American weapons and equipment they receive. and economic power toward impressive ends. There were. Israel”. But frankly.S.Kashmir. “The End of Diplomacy?”. the W.the United States is hampered by conflicts driven by deep ethnic and religious hostility and by internal politics in which its own allies (Israel. political. and the first Gulf War. 1. And it has done pretty well in managing the big relationships with Russia and Europe. and maybe one part diplomacy. The Obama administration wants to do this kind of stuff. http://www. No more. "there were wonderful giants of old. however -. there was a time when American diplomacy did big and important things. And in one of the cruelest ironies of all.S. It's not from the big that the president's problems come. it's from the small. right. 4. What's more.S. In the face of terrorism. America is a good deal weaker. in addition to the contacts they have in Egypt with U. Miller. military educational institutions such as the service war colleges and the National Defense CJC Policymakers in Washington and Jerusalem have assumed for days that Mubarak would soon step down. and the U. once upon a time. the answers to the many questions set off by Mubarak’s departure will have to come from the Egyptians themselves.S. In garden spots like Iraq. Afghanistan.. More than 500 a year come to the U. “Mubarak's Departure Raises Tough Questions for U. and nasty regional conflicts. opening to China. Pakistan. extractive regimes are unable to control their own territory and cut deals with anti-American elements and place their security and political concerns first. nuclear proliferation. or] MGM Back in the day. wars of choice. and Somalia. doggedly pursuing Middle East peace. And America is unlikely to prevail in any meaningful sense of the word where corrupt. 2-3-2010 [2/3/2010. the problems are four parts Thursday File ethics while studying at U. The image of the shuttling secretary of state preempting crises or exploiting them to broker agreements. the U. Aaron David. the early 1970s. ." There's always a danger in idealizing what once was or seemed to be in order to make a point about the present. these are the easy ones. including the Vietnam War and out-of-control CIA operations. and India) can't be of much help. president who has gone further to engage Iran than any of his predecessors is watching any hope for diplomacy being ground up by a regime under siege in Tehran. Even in areas where diplomacy might seem to work on paper -. But the Obama administration and its allies have only limited influence on the future course of events on the ground in Egypt. five parts nationbuilding. and the sad fact is there may be little Barack Obama can do about it. effective Arab-Israeli diplomacy. The US does not have influence on the events in Egypt. 5.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 115/148 Cross-X. Effective American diplomacy may well be going the way of the dodo. you really do have to wonder whether America's best diplomacy and foreign policy are behind it. détente with the Russians. conventional diplomacy has either not been tried or not been very successful. Yemen. http://www. Still.S. looking back over the last 60 years. Lamenting the absence of great men years before his own shining moment. achieving dramatic breakthroughs with spectacular secret diplomacy seems a world away. Feb. Dreazen – 2/1 ( Yochi Dreazen is a senior correspondent for National Journal Group covering military affairs and national security. and have already begun thinking through what may come next. public-policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. The world's gotten complicated.S. America never ran the world (an illusion the left.America has been in a diplomatic dry patch. it seems. Diplomatic Capital is irrelevant in a post Mubarak world. disasters and plenty of dysfunction during these years. for advanced training. Pakistan. 19881991) when the United States marshaled its military. personnel. 2011.foreignpolicy.under Bill Clinton and George Bush -. Arab-Israeli peacemaking -. For most of the last 16 years. NATO. Winston Churchill wrote that in England. a competent American role in the acceleration and management of the end of the Cold War. though it has had its share of problems with China.nationaljournal. administration is handicapping itself with a dysfunctional bureaucratic setup that makes it harder to focus and find its footing. Foreign Policy. and much of the third and fourth worlds believe. but there were moments (1945-1950.

or Iran for that matter.realclearpolitics. yes. America's currently fighting two wars where the standard for victory is not whether it can win but when it can leave. in Egypt. and neither is parliamentary by disposition.. and now. and then very tenuously. one time. It exists only tissue of false promises. It's still early. or Islamist equivalents (Hamas. humourless joke -. . and made limitations upon democracy fairly plain. Whom should we trust? We have read much about those twittering "social media. more money for everyone! You cannot write a constitution in 10 days. And that's very bad for a great power. “Democracy and the Mob”. about the aspirations of women.dictated by a dictator -. And al Jazeera leaped in quickly to spread the word and excitement from there. But if you don't have the right structure. their protection rackets. The former speaks sensitively but vacuously about pluralism in religion and politics. with a cape of promises. while belabouring three topics: Zionism. And the image that comes to mind isn't a terribly kind one: America as a kind of modern-day Gulliver tied up by tiny tribes abroad and hobbled by its inability to organize its own house at home." which the younger generation of Islamists have mastered. bring Tehran to heel. In the case of Egypt. make North Korea play aos_108923.well before they actually had the numbers on the street. 2011. It corresponded approximately to the reality.and the Egyptian army chose to dispense with Hosni Mubarak last week. Reforms. Perhaps the Iranian regime will collapse or the Arabs and Israelis will do something good by themselves. age 29. in combination with partisan and sensationalized mass 116/148 Thursday File power of the small is being matched by the weakening of the big. Finally. it makes success all that much harder. the social-media-savvy Moaz Abdel Karim.the choice is between feigned obedience and defiance -. It is trying to play the forces loosed on Cairo streets and elsewhere as a bull. Most old-world constitutions were written in blood (Canada's was unusual). or create genuine opportunities for success abroad. and maybe the Obama administration will get lucky. yes.may be conceded. and Jews. but it won't last.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. and elsewhere. Israel. A new bureaucratic flowchart won't replace skill and luck.age 66. better marshal American power. party elections. The latter prefers to raise the banner of Jihad.after nearly a decade of bloodshed. in Iraq -. You don't have to be a declinist (I'm not) to see how far the image of American power has fallen. It wasn't a Democracy is itself the loudest false promise being casually offered in the Middle East. Yemen. one vote. http://www. The Internet. get the Arabs and the Israelis to cooperate. because in Egypt. It will not be available within days or weeks. The nation's top diplomat (the secretary of state) seems to be everywhere and nowhere in terms of owning issues and finding a way to take on some of the nastiest challenges. Hezbollah. But the next several years are more likely to be tough ones for American diplomacy. there's the issue of how the country organizes itself. the other the Muslim Brotherhood. 6. Warren – 2/17 (David Warren. along with everyone else. Whether it's an inability to get tough sanctions from the international community against Iran. operating through the mosques. And the United States has departed from the one model that has proven successful: the strong foreign-policy president empowering the strong secretary of state who rides herd over subcabinet-level envoys in real time and in close coordination with the president on strategy. Instead. or push the Pakistanis to hit the Taliban and al Qaeda in a sustained way. consciously resisting "one man. And yet there was one thing to be said for it. Algeria. you can. And there. The Brotherhood and Military will prevent it either way. the alternative is to write them in water. which is what secretaries of state are supposed to do. we are asked to compare. nor contribute to the possibilities for mature and intelligent . only because Bush and company dwelt upon the "civil society" aspects. which has much of the world wondering about what kind of great power the United States really is. for instance. Forget the economic meltdown. only two "parties" are seriously organized. February 17. The more sophisticated commentators in the West have been drawing contrasts between the older and younger manifestations of Islamism. even a kind of judicial and legislative apparatus. with the rhetorically bludgeoning Mohamed Badi -.. but. and the actual "supreme guide" of the Muslim Brotherhood (with the infrastructure of the movement entirely behind him)." arguably. That the existing Egyptian constitution is a defunct. and so on). One would be the civilian military order behind each existing autocracy. Jordan. the world has gotten used to saying no to America without cost or consequence. They became possible because social media gave people the sense of strength in numbers -." Even reduced to "free and fair multi- democracy remains unavailable for the foreseeable future. the Obama administration has created an empire of envoys with power concentrated in the White House but without real purpose or strategy. yes. multi-party elections. The mob is now electronically summoned and enhanced.html) CJC You cannot argue with a mob -. These latter have already created their parallel welfare and regulatory agencies. have rewritten many of the rules. Staff. The demonstrations were certainly organized through them. There will not be a transition to democracy in Egypt. revised daily to keep up with the demands. to return to where I started. a new constitution. this does not make it any easier to argue with. or rather.

It instead creates a new and much broader field for anarchy.*** . ***Uniqueness Ans. From anarchy to totalitarianism is one Persian step.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 117/148 Thursday File deliberation over the path ahead.

http://www. has less leverage in the region than ever before. CNN – 2/2 (Elise Labott and Josh Levs. 2011. and its allies that it will remain defiant on its nuclear program in the face of tough sanctions. Lebanon is in the throes of a dangerous game of brinksmanship that threatens to send the country back into civil war after Hezbollah.-backed government of Prime Minister Saad Hariri and installed billionaire businessman Najib Mikati as its choice for the job.egypt/index. We don’t have the influence to do anything in the region. ***Link Level*** . February 2. In Yemen. Today. At talks last month in Istanbul. but he was also key to a strongman president has been ejected. Turkey. CNN Staff.S. Iran showed the Thursday File Aff – Egypt – N/U: Dip Cap Low US diplomatic capital is at an all-time low.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 118/148 Cross-X.S.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS %3A+Politics%29) CJC the U. “The Sweep: The risk of democracy in the Middle East”.S. supported by Syria and Iran. brought down the U.S.cnn. anti-terror efforts in the country that harbors an active and threatening subset of al Qaeda.

Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 119/148 Thursday File

Iraq Aff – Link Turn
Withdrawing from Iraq saves diplomatic capital – shifts focus elsewhere while Iraq takes the lead. Scowcroft, 5-13-2010 [Brett, former US National Security Advisor, 2010 GLOBAL SECURITY FORUM,]
Q: Chet Crocker, Georgetown University. A couple of 20,000-foot questions for a retired Air Force general and a screenplay writer. (Laughter.) Brent, you mentioned the phrase, “a nurturing presence,” and I wonder what kind of post-Iraq war, postAfghan war military footprint you see in that part of the world, and what role for our diplomacy? Are we going to be the lead actor on all the issues that we’ve been touching on – Israel-Palestine, India-Pakistan, and of course, Gulf security architecture, which David mentioned? So are we going to be the lead diplomatic presence and the lead

military presence in this region? And should this region continue to occupy 80 percent of our political and diplomatic capital around the world? Thank you. LT. GEN. SCOWCROFT: Chet, I think you’re the best one to answer that question. I would hope that we would back down a little bit from leadership in the region to, if you will, nurturing and cooperation and encouragement for the region to get itself together and to move in unison. It’s fundamentally a rich region. Iraq, for example, has huge natural resources. The right kind of encouragement could do a lot to turn Iraqi-Iranian relationship to one, at least, of toleration. I think Jordan is another problem, which is, in part, a regional problem. Aside from the issues of the East Bank, and so on, there are close to a million Iraqi refugees in Jordan. This is a terrible burden for a state without the natural resources that some of the others have. I think we can use our ability to organize and guide in a way which encourages the best instincts of the region without saying, we’ve dealt with these military problems; now we’re going to set the region
straight, because I don’t think we’re able to do that.

Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 120/148 Thursday File

Afghanistan Aff – Link Turn
Afghanistan presence devastates dip cap. South China Morning Post, 2009 [Greg Torode, 12-3, "Will Obama's Afghan strategy play into China's hands?", Lexis] Obama's Afghan strategy - 100,000 troops and a withdrawal beginning in July 2011 - will demand costly intangibles and some are wondering whether it is here, in East Asia, that Washington will end up paying that bill. Quagmire in Afghanistan could further play into the hands of an emerging China that is fast
US President Barack challenging the strategic assumptions that have governed East Asia for decades. Even if the dramatic escalation of 30,000 extra troops goes smoothly, the military, political and diplomatic capital expended will be considerable. And it is

being spent by a fresh, young hopeful, but an exhausted warrior trying to restore his reserves of blood and treasure after two conflicts, and the worst economic crisis in a generation. Will Afghanistan divert Washington's attention from the more subtle but vital task of dealing with the rise of China and balancing ties across East Asia, where, for decades, it has been the primary military power? Will it divert the energies of US institutions just as they are supposed to be engaging China on an ever-broadening range of issues, from the
not environment and water management to freedom of navigation? Then there are the worst case scenarios. Would Afghanistan commitments mean the US could not respond fully to a military crisis in the region, say a conflict over Taiwan or the Korean peninsula? Afghanistan, after all, is now Obama's war. These are the questions being asked across

the region just weeks after Obama staged his first visit to set the tone for what he hopes will be eight years of complex engagement - deepening ties with China while boosting existing alliances and reaching
to out to new friends. No one is pretending China would create that crisis but some believe Beijing would quietly seek to exploit any perceived vacuum. Dr Ian Storey, a scholar at Singapore's Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, said a sense that the US risked bogging itself down in Afghanistan could embolden Beijing. "On a strategic level, it might reinforce China's perceptions that the US is a declining power," he said. "And I think that, in turn, could make Beijing more assertive in the region. We might see China being more confident about pushing the theme of a new multipolar world like they tried in the 1990s, a world where the US is more of a 'normal' power." Already, US military officials describe more frequent encounters with Chinese warships across the region, a presence expected to grow. On the diplomatic front, US diplomats and their regional allies find their Beijing counterparts increasingly assertive. While Afghanistan might force Washington to draw away from the Pacific theatre - its biggest presence - its important naval engagement with the region was unlikely to diminish, Storey said. "We can see the US is exhausted," one veteran Japanese envoy said privately. "Taking on fresh burdens in Afghanistan leaves us wondering about the response in a crisis. With the best will, it would be a great challenge ... they are already stretched." Professor Shi Yinghong, director of the Centre for American Studies at Renmin University, said China would now pay closer attention to developments in Afghanistan. Although China would avoid publicly commenting on Obama's Afghan decision, Shi said Beijing would be concerned no matter whether America won or lost the war. "It will be a very distant concern. Beijing will be more immediately concerned if the US loses the war, in this case, its ally Pakistan will be affected, and security in the region will be undermined," he said. "If the war is won, then Beijing will be uncomfortable to have so many US soldiers near its border." In practical terms, Beijing has appeared content to stand on the sidelines through the war to date. Repeated US requests to exploit bases on the Chinese side of the border for refuelling missions have been refused. More recently, US officials have requested an opening of the small but strategic Sino-Afghan border to allow troops and supplies to be ferried down the mountainous Wakhan Corridor. The issue was raised during Obama's recent mission to Beijing but has yet to be approved. No offers of hard military support is expected any time soon. Most analysts believe China is unlikely to want to be involved in a war led by US-dominated Nato forces rather than the UN. But some in the region believe Obama will not be easily diverted. Professor Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University, said Obama had made considerable gains in Southeast Asia compared with his predecessor. He has entrenched ties with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and has taken the risk of engaging Myanmar's junta. "Despite all the challenges he will face in Afghanistan, I think the track in this part of the world is set ... his administration has done more in a year than Bush did in eight years," he said. "We fully expect that will continue."

Investment in Afghan war is wasting Obama’s diplomatic capital – aff frees it up. Carpenter, 6-27-2010 [Dan, Writer and columnist for the IndyStar, “No credit for taking charge,”]
Like Lincoln, President Barack


has found it necessary to change generals in the middle of a war. Unlike Lincoln, this

president seems unlikely to defeat the South. With Afghanistan, his chances of victory are roughly equal to Lincoln's, assuming that victory means a secure, friendly populace under the firm control of a government established under the auspices of the U.S. military. Even a gunboat diplomacy buff like George Will sees no hope or necessity for the Afghanistan expedition. Liberals are left pretty much in a quagmire, suffering through another political oil

splash on their man without reason to believe his handling of this affront has any bearing on the alleged business at hand. "Success" in Afghanistan is as remote to the vast majority of

Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 121/148 Thursday File Americans (those without loved ones there) as Afghanistan itself. To the extent they discuss the
commander in chief as they stand in line for their iPhones, they talk in terms of his domestic war, the bone-deep conflict between a Northern urbanite and a devout resistance dominated by the South and Southwest. Recognizing the potency of right-wing sentiment, and the inconstancy of the so-called Blue Dog Democrats, Obama long ago adopted a strategy of cooptation. Assure the other side you share their narrowly defined basic values of patriotism and morality and middle-class preeminence, and hope they'll drop their guard against your more imaginative agenda. Because nobody dares run for president as an

antiwar candidate, Obama chose to label Iraq as the wrong war, leaving Afghanistan as the right war and obligating himself to prosecute that waste of lives, money and diplomatic capital. He played into the mass fantasy that global upheaval can be reduced to the mischief of a few terrorist bands. He threw in the bonus of a sort-of deadline for bringing the troops home. None of it has pleased North or South on this side of the proverbial water's edge. It
couldn't even spare him a bizarre cross-cultural kneecapping by his top general in, of all places, Rolling Stone magazine. Hardly a match for Lincoln's dark nights of the soul, I guess; but our much-maligned 16th president surely died with confidence that historians would vindicate him. He waged a terrible war that ended insurrection, ended slavery -- and ended. No American

war has taken longer to reach its end than the current one that Barack Obama purported to welcome. Its end is not in sight, and the absence of evil that it would bring about is something our visionary leader is unable to picture for us. Lincoln's eloquence about bereaved military families who "have
laid so costly a sacrifice upon the altar of freedom" can hardly be appropriated for a disjointed and deadly security operation for a corrupt and ineffectual foreign regime. The battle, then, is to save face on the home front. To show who is in command. It has to be an ill-fitting role for a man who sought to dial down his predecessor's emphasis on the military and offer an open hand to the non-Western world. Playing it is the price he has had to pay to be president. He can go ahead and break a leg, as they say in show business; but he'll hear little applause from South, North, or, when it comes to his chosen war, posterity.

Georgetown University. a regional problem. Gulf security architecture. 5-13-2010 [Brett. for example. because I don’t think we’re able to do that. India-Pakistan. (Laughter. postAfghan war military footprint you see in that part of the world. 2010 GLOBAL SECURITY FORUM.pdf] Q: Chet Crocker.) Brent. I think you’re the best one to answer that question. .000-foot questions for a retired Air Force general and a screenplay writer. which Thursday File Iraq Aff – Link Turn Withdrawing from Iraq saves diplomatic capital – shifts focus elsewhere while Iraq takes the lead. This is a terrible burden for a state without the natural resources that some of the others have. has huge natural resources. LT. SCOWCROFT: Chet. “a nurturing presence. nurturing and cooperation and encouragement for the region to get itself together and to move in unison. we’ve dealt with these military problems. now we’re going to set the region straight. of toleration.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 122/148 Cross-X. A couple of 20. I think we can use our ability to organize and guide in a way which encourages the best instincts of the region without saying. I would hope that we would back down a little bit from leadership in the region to. Aside from the issues of the East Bank.” and I wonder what kind of post-Iraq war. former US National Security Advisor. in part. The right kind of encouragement could do a lot to turn Iraqi-Iranian relationship to one. I think Jordan is another problem. there are close to a million Iraqi refugees in Jordan. and of course. at least. It’s fundamentally a rich region. if you will. Iraq. and what role for our diplomacy? Are we going to be the lead actor on all the issues that we’ve been touching on – Israel-Palestine. and so on. which David mentioned? So are we going to be the lead diplomatic presence and the lead military presence in this region? And should this region continue to occupy 80 percent of our political and diplomatic capital around the world? Thank you. you mentioned the phrase. GEN. Scowcroft.

the more likely it is that United States diplomatic endeavors will be thwarted and its international reputation tarnished. Marines on the island and the resignation of their commander. which] has profound implications under United States and international law and raises . JD graduate at University of San Francisco School of Law. “Status of Forces Agreements: Tools to Further Effective Foreign Policy and Lessons To Be Learned from the United States-Japan Agreement”.. .S. scheme: the Status of Forces Agreement ("SOFA"). the site of America's largest military base in Japan. University of San Francisco Law Review. [troops] abroad to further [its] national security and foreign policy objectives[... rights.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 123/148 Cross-X." n18 As the global community becomes more aware of Japanese dissatisfaction..F. 227. status. 37 U." n19 This Comment focuses on an instrument essential to America's military placement On February 16.S. issues of . Lexis] MGM a local assembly on Okinawa. 2001. 2002 [Jaime.. Rev. and immunities. allowing us to pursue diplomatic endeavor Gher. The United States has a long history of "sending . demanded the "withdrawal of all Thursday File Japan Aff – Link Turn Withdrawing from Okinawa ends criticism of the US.. Fall. privileges. L.

113 This shift increases Thursday File Link – Link Turn – South Korea K Aff Link Turn: US focus should shift from military power and towards gender policy.g.S. Certainly. attitudes of distrust tend to fester and further reduce our leverage. diplomatic capital. “Congress’s Attempted Response to the World’s Demand for the Violence Against Women Act”.S.g." 117 "Problems arise for our soft power when we do not live up to our own standards. foreign policy goals. out of our domestic values and policies. The Vanderbilt Journal of Transnational Law. 119 Readers should be cautious not to overestimate the value of U.lexis-nexis. moral ethos would dissipate. However. http://web. gender equality) often serves to enhance credibility in an unrelated human rights arena (e. all of the damage currently spanning the U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 124/148 much the same way a President spends political capital to achieve policy objectives on Capitol Hill .translate into success for U. 118 Areas of legal and moral contradiction. Lawyer and writer in the Vanderbilt Law School Journal of Transnational Law**." and reclaiming legitimacy by addressing domestic gender-motivated violence as a human rights issue can communicate this cultural value. gender legislation advances U. from one of military hard power to a moral and diplomatic leader.S. Such a change would significantly increase diplomatic capital. child labor).com/scholastic/document?_m =235f2b6f28fe5116dc52324e38ebfe4c&_docnum=1&wchp=dGLzVlzzSkVk&_md5=bcef5cca117ffa071d3621 bd40b67ba6) Congressional activism on gender policy provides an avenue for shifting the image of the U. Congressional legislation serves the dual purpose of restoring the U. such as those present in gender policy. 120 In particular. image as a champion of gender equality as well as signaling that Congress takes its responsibility for fulfilling international human rights obligations seriously. "soft power grows out of our culture. 115 Professor Joseph Nye describes the above phenomenon as "soft power": "Soft power is the ability to get what you want through attraction rather than coercion or payments.S. credibility on gender equality issues." 116 Nye argues that "when American policies lose their legitimacy and credibility in the eyes of others." including international standards to which the United States committed. which can . create the loss of the legitimacy and credibility necessary to build soft power.S soft power interests.S. May 2010.S. In this way. LexisNexis. 114 Credibility in one human [*749] rights arena (e. this Note does not mean to suggest that if Congress passes legislation that addresses gender problems in America. Culpepper 2010 (Brenton. ***Internal Answers*** .

http://www. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. a professor of economics at the National Defense University in Washington. The Egyptian military isn’t likely to get too involved in details of constitutional changes or get so comfortable that they would want to hang on to power. California. “They are just not the types to want to do that.html) CJC The standards taught “include a role for civilian influence over decision-making.” said Paul Sullivan. Bannerman and others said. Springborg said he doesn’t think the U. Feb 13. Thursday File Aff – Egypt: No Influence US does not have influence over Egyptian military.” said Robert Springborg.S. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. “I think the military has looked after its own interests as the high command sees “Also the people of Egypt would likely not accept it. a professor of political economy of the Middle East at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey.” he said.” .Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 125/148 Cross-X. reporter for Bloomberg News. “Public Praise. has had much influence over the decisions of the Egyptian military during the turmoil in Cairo and other major cities.

S. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”.” Bannerman said. analysts said.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 126/148 Cross-X. he Thursday File Aff – Egypt: Aid =/= Influence Aid does not influence Egyptian military. Feb 13. 2011. “They see the aid as a partnership. “Public Praise.S. as recompense for its 1979 peace agreement with Israel and for basing and access that the U. http://www. Gates and Mullen aren’t likely to press too hard. As a receives.html) CJC The Egyptian military sees the aid it receives every year from the” . they see it as compensation for the Peace Accords with Israel. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. “They’re smart enough to know that’s not how to get them to do it. reporter for Bloomberg News.

But he did say one thing that will influence events there: that transition in Egypt "must be meaningful. White House Chief of Staff William Daley. not only to show progress on solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict but to encourage democratic reform.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 127/148 Thursday File Aff – Egypt – No Influence U. February 2. "A lot of this is totally out of our control. US does not have influence over the Middle East. which has been solidly pro-American since the advent of King Abdullah's reign." Much of the White House response has been "reacting to the circumstances on the street and the knowledge we obtain.realclearpolitics. Mubarak and moves to an interim government is not clear. Neither will the choice of his successor. "The United States is really a spectator to a phenomenon that has taken on a life of its own. America has lost the ability to influence the shape of post-Mubarak Egypt and it faces growing crises in another moderate Arab state. “White House Charts a New Plan”. who . http://www. he threw our lot with the demonstrators who seek Mubarak's immediate removal and made Mubarak's time to organize any transition even more limited than they were before. 2011. has zero influence over what happens on the ground in Egypt. 2011. In Babbin – 2/2 (Jed Babbin served as a Deputy Undersecretary of Defense under George H. is a 'spectator' Despite its financial sway. CNN Staff.html? mod=rss_Politics_And_Policy) CJC How the administration overcomes Mr. . He is the author of several bestselling books including "Inside the Asylum. Jordan. February 2.egypt/index. Staff Writers. “The Sweep: The risk of democracy in the Middle East”. “Egyptian Crisis Biggest Foreign Test Yet for Obama Administration”. Stone – 1/31 (Andrea CJC U. and it must begin now. it must be peaceful. President Obama did a good job of pretending that we have significant influence on the events in Egypt which will determine who rules in Mubarak's place. they know the outcome is out of their control.". http://www. FEBRUARY 3.S. to borrow a malapropism from a former president.politicsdaily. misunderestimated by the Obama administration and its media surrogates.” By that remark.W.cnn." he said. Bush.S. the Obama administration has not delivered on the tantalizing promises it made since taking over." Ottaway said.unless the Egyptian armed forces choose to intervene may tilt Egypt into the radical Islamist sphere now dominated by Iran. DC or the New York Times' editorial boardroom. These dashed expectations Obama has created in the region are not just CNN – 2/2 (Elise Labott and Josh Levs.html) CJC Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's Tuesday promise to not run for reelection does not mean his government will survive through the scheduled September contest. 1/31/2011. “Egypt's Future Will Be Decided by the Military”. In his brief Tuesday evening remarks. meeting with journalists Wednesday. "It's important to keep in mind that the United States is not going to change the course of events in Egypt or anywhere else. This loss of influence is apparently misunderstood or. http://www.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS %3A+Politics%29) CJC Although it came into office hoping to seduce the region rather than fight it. Wall Street Journal – 2/3 (JONATHAN WEISMAN And ADAM ENTOUS. said. US has zero influence over the outcome in Egypt. Whether his regime falls now or leaves of its own accord later will not be decided in ary. http://online." US is reactionary. Political Analyst for Politics Daily. Change in the region comes not from his encouragement but from the disaffected taking matters into their own hands." and "In the Words of Our Enemies.

. whose interests don't always align with Washington's. to help in times of crisis. Now.S. credibility in the region and have had diplomats and Middle East experts scratching their heads about just what Obama's vision for the region 128/148 Thursday File they have hurt U. countries like Turkey and Qatar.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.S. This troubled region has always looked to the U. are taking the lead.

In 1973 they even expelled the Soviets from Egypt. Though they aren't well-trained by US standards because they have little funding to train." and "In the Words of Our Enemies.again reflecting Egypt's weak economy and consistent failure to spend enough to create and train effective forces . On Monday. at least up to a point. That source emphasized that the Egyptian army's deep rooted culture and mentality will prevail. a more radical government rises in its place? Another senior American military source opined that the Egyptian military would not permit a radical Islamic regime like the Tehran Ayatollahs from taking control.W. it's entirely possible that a new Islamist regime could purchase the military's loyalty. when Mubarak falls.html) CJC As one very senior retired Israeli officer told me. He is the author of several bestselling books including "Inside the Asylum. They can be baought by radical forces.*** . ***A2: Counterterrorism*** ***Impact Ans. Babbin – 2/2 (Jed Babbin served as a Deputy Undersecretary of Defense under George H.".com/articles/2011/02/02/egypts_future_will_be_decided_by_the_milit ary.they are loyal to their officers. 2011. the Egyptian army didn't become communist when it was heavily equipped (rather more than it needed) by the Soviet Union. But what if. That is the most likely scenario if radical Islamic influence .com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – No Influence: Military US does not have influence over the military.realclearpolitics. the officers and men have some prestige in Egyptian society which they wish to maintain. Bush. February 2. But that does not mean it will remain on the sidelines indefinitely. But given Egypt's culture and its military's low-paid status. Though the enlisted men in Egyptian forces are very poorly paid . But they will resist a radical regime. A senior American military source who trained with Egyptian forces for years echoed those thoughts and added this: the Egyptian army's officer corps is loyal to Mubarak.from inside Egypt and emanating from Iran and Syria .manage to tip the balance their way. “Egypt's Future Will Be Decided by the Military”. http://www. We cannot expect that the Egyptian army will have become a democratic force as a result of our deep connections with it. the Egyptian military proclaimed it would not use violence against the Cairo demonstrators.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 129/148 Cross-X.

Washington Post Staff Writers.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 130/148 Cross-X. a Middle East expert with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. If anything. the Brotherhood "understands the extremists better than anyone else. Egypt will continue its cooperation even with Muslim Brotherhood in power. in revolutionary situations. http://www. B. "The idea we can't do business with countries responsive to their citizens is a false one. They note the country has every interest in combating terrorism. an Egyptian who is the No. C. Scott Carpenter. They know that." said the former CIA official. a consulting firm.S. Turkey could fill the intelligence void.S. 2011." said J. agreed that the new Egyptian government will be much more sensitive to public opinion than Mubarak's regime. “Mubarak resignation throws into question U. at least in the short run. the moderates are the first to go. "But the U.washingtonpost. ***A2: Spillover/Instability*** . another former State Department Middle East expert." Thursday File A2: Counterterrorism Impacts No risk of collapsing counterterrorism operations." a democratic Muslim nation. has good counterterrorism cooperation with governments of countries like Turkey.-Egyptian counterterrorism work”. Al-Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood have been foes for decades. and polls show that Egyptians overwhelmingly reject the group's brutal methods and rigid ideology. having suffered years of assassinations and other attacks by extremist Muslim groups. February 13. now chairman of ERG Partners. Grenier predicted the relationship would continue even if the Muslim Brotherhood controlled the next government. argue that Egypt is likely to continue much of its cooperation. said Dunne. now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Michele Dunne. CJC officials. Turn: Egypt democracy regardless of the outcomes undercut Al-Qaeda. 3 warrants: A. 21 people died in a carbomb attack on a Coptic Christian church in Alexandria. Al-Qaeda opposes the kind of democracy that millions of Egyptians called for in the 18 days of mass demonstrations that led to Mubarak's toppling. Washington Post – 2/13 (Mary Beth Sheridan and Joby Warrick. if Some former the future Egyptian government is less repressive. she said. Many counterterrorism officials and Middle East experts are skeptical that al-Qaeda will benefit from Egypt's political upheaval. 2 figure in al-Qaeda. Only last month. "The developments in Egypt are actually devastating to al-Qaeda. "maybe Egypt won't be producing terrorists" like Ayman al-Zawahiri.

” said Ghaith al-Omari. but unemployment is higher (10. So were the Palestinians. late Tuesday and ordered him to “undertake quick and tangible steps for real political reforms. and by doing so.” But that still is a long way from revolution. In Yemen. There were a lot of predictions that got way ahead of where the facts were. Ali Abdullah Saleh is presiding over terrible poverty and an unemployment rate that the CIA says runs as high as 35 percent.” There is no risk of spreading instability. "I think what you’re watching is this utter frustration. Political Reporters for Poiltico. “Containing Egypt: If Mubarak Goes. not that things were going badly.” said Martin Indyk. that the move could trigger real Thursday File Aff – No Egypt Spillover Egypt uprisings will not spillover into instability in the Middle East. “It’s a serious wake-up call that reform can’t wait any longer. in terms of education.” said Muasher. Still. both on its own right and when viewed in the regional context.” according to a statement." Bodine added. but as soon as the Jordanian political establishment raised alarms. and so he gave the protesters what they were asking for. Politico – 2/1 (Ben Smith and Laura Rozen. namely. Hirsh previously served as the senior editor and national economics correspondent for Newsweek.7 percent (according to CIA estimates). “King Abdullah of Jordan and the Gulf Arab leaders have the ability to adapt. but we won’t be able to attain that without real political reforms. when people were predicting another Arab spring. And Abdullah has. http://www. 2011. more than Mubarak.4 percent compared to Egypt’s 9. which reflect our vision for comprehensive modernization and development in Jordan. former U. but they weren’t going at all.nationaljournal. until Tunisia. he hopes to ensure that they do not demand anything more. “Remember in 2003 to 2005.html) CJC Jordan’s King Abdullah II named a new prime minister. http://www.” said a U. the betting among some of the more sober-minded analysts of Arab and Middle East politics inside and outside the U. Marouf al-Bakhit. who is now vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. official involved in analyzing the Arab world. especially since economic discontent seems a central motivation. Hirsh – 1/31 ( Michael Hirsh is chief correspondent for National Journal. pushed for one really knows. “I don’t see it as a brush fire spreading across the Middle East. Does the Revolution Stop There?”. while Egypt was once seen as the aristocracy of the Arab world -.the country that others looked to" Bodine said.that it sends reverberations throughout the region but without a wave of revolution to follow.S. Former Jordanian Foreign Minister Marwan Muasher said. the former ambassador to Yemen and a longtime specialist in Near East affairs.first. The Jordanian monarchy is still widely viewed as stable in spite of a large and restive population of Palestinian refugees and observers who said it is unclear whether the shake-up — unlike Mubarak’s new government in Egypt — represents a move toward real change.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 131/148 Cross-X. Overturning a government requires that a whole array of unusual circumstances align at once.and that remained a one-off event for three decades. The spillover or domino effect tends to be less than people fear it will. the last one to occur in the region had been the Iranian revolution -. where the unemployment rate is 13. a change of government. the king has a template — the .” said Barbara Bodine. “Egypt unrest threatens to spread”. in terms of money. The Iraqis were holding elections. It is quite possible that the rapid toppling of two long-entrenched Arab dictators -. Saudi Arabia is ostensibly rich and under rigid control. “the king backed away from it. “The aristocracy is often the last to know their time is CJC That’s the only certainty now as well -.” Abdullah’s statement also called for an “immediate revision” of the laws governing politics and public freedom.” Muasher developed a political reform plan five years ago. though he added that “Jordan is different from Tunisia and Egypt.politico. February 1.S. which must increase popular participation in the decision making.could spread quickly to other regimes. there’s no fear of the system collapsing in any way. but it is going to have an impact across the Middle East.8 percent) there than in Egypt.its time of influence has passed. “It has been a game-changer in how people see their governments and their ability to change them. then possibly Mubarak -. Tunisia’s Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Egypt’s government is uniquely despised for precisely the reason that it has been so stagnant in its policies. the arts. “So. 2011. however. the media.” Beyond that. The king described economic reform as a “necessity to provide a better life for our people. government is that the turmoil in Egypt is likely containable politically -. “What you had was this gerontocracy sitting on top of an ossified bureaucracy. Leaders throughout the Middle East are pushing reforms quickly to prevent uprisings. who is of Jordanian descent and serves as advocacy director for the American Task Force on Palestine. as Ben Ali did to the surprise of many experts. King Abdullah is also running a police state that brooks no dissent.S. January 31. “Egypt has not been center of gravity in the Middle East for a very long time. After all. “What we see is the king realizing that this is a serious public movement. In Jordan. ambassador to Israel and current director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution.” Indeed. not least of which is a leader who turns and flees.

He said that new media made it more difficult for regimes to use hard force. abandoning plans to change the constitution enabling him to rule for Thursday File Muasher plan. In both events. In Iran. whose small populations and immense wealth have typically allowed the regimes to defuse political protest — responded visibly. The question is whether he will now have the basis to go to the East Bank establishment and say. Miller. where protesters have clashed with police. In 1982 iron-fisted Syrian forces leveled the city of Hama as President Hafez Al-Assad ruthlessly crushed a Sunni Islamic revolt. because there will be no backlash from other governments. a Yemeni think-tank. a senior Middle East researcher at the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel-Aviv University. taking both concrete and symbolic steps. However. One day after the protests broke out in Egypt. and after King Abdullah of Jordan sacked Prime Minister Samir Rifai and his cabinet. http://www. quickly giving in to the demands of change from their people." During the 1970s and 1980s Arab rulers used massive force without hesitation to quell local opposition. told The Media Line. Maddy-Weitzman. the Western-backed authority said it would move swiftly to hold local elections. The opposition did not demand Saleh's resignation either. reportedly executing a record number of prisoners in January. February 2. "They’re trying to defuse the atmosphere and recalibrate. including one Dutch national who participated in European protests. Saleh's 32-year presidency will expire in 2013. but only reforms in the election system and a tougher government approach to corruption.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 132/148 CJC The use of crushing military force to put down popular uprisings has lost its punch in the Arab Middle East. sink or swim? If we do not implement this political reform program now. "The era of tanks and security control is over. President Ali Abdullah — who last week raised the salaries of government employees and soldiers — announced expanded payments to thousands of poor families and eliminated tuition for students at state universities. And the evident American and European willingness to watch Mubarak fall may have prompted autocrats to re-evalute their own relationships. the government — which is publicly cheering Egyptian protesters — is also flexing its muscle.’” What is clear is that the turmoil in Tunisia and Egypt has roiled the region with an intensity not seen since the 1970s. King Hussein of Jordan sent tanks into Palestinian refugee camps to quash an armed insurrection.allheadlinenews. government’s rhetoric about human rights and democracy might actually mean something.500 to its subjects to subsidize the cost of food. "The important thing is he will not be able to bequeath the Presidency to his son. Less than 24 hours after Egyptian president Husni Mubarak announced he would neither run again for office nor nominate his son Gamal. "What happened in Tunisia and Egypt has an impact on other Arab states. thousands of civilians lost their lives.S. Dr. “Times are changing use of force in Arab world”." Maddy-Weitzman told The Media Line. more violence is sometimes used. he added. ahead of a "Day of Rage" scheduled for Thursday by civil society groups. leaders appear to be altering their tactics. "Everyone now is focused on the day after Saleh. the Yemeni president on Wednesday announced he would not stand for another term. 2011. "I will not extend my mandate and I am against hereditary rule. President Mahmoud Abbas canceled the elections in 2009 for fear that his Fatah party would lose seats." Awwas said that President Saleh's announcement was more likely an attempt to quell opposition rage than a sincere declaration he would step down." Aish Ali Awwas.” said Human Rights Watch Washington Director Tom Malinowski. head of strategic studies at the Sheba Center for Strategic Studies (SCSS). “They’re dumbfounded by the notion that the U. The new era will be one of peaceful activities. Reporter. Even seemingly stable regimes — notably American allies like Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. depriving Arab Bruce countries of their traditional monopoly over the flow of information. after what happened in Tunisia and Egypt. ‘Gentlemen. trying to avert the mistakes made by their Egyptian and Tunisian counterparts." Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh told his country’s parliament. governments have visibly responded to the fear of spreading turmoil: In Yemen. such as by the Iranian regime of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that crushed the popular opposition riots following the elections last year. Across the region." Awwas said. Miller – 2/2 (David E. ***A2: Iran Reform*** . as opposed to representing a set of meaningless talking points they can ignore. we will all go down together. In the Palestinian city Ramallah. Today. There will be no spill over from Egypt creating instability. Kuwait’s government announced payments of more than $3. said that Arab leaders were now opting for a proactive approach. In September 1970.

But again. they are made with the Islamic Revolution of 1979. I was in Tehran when the Tunisian president fled his country and after the Hezbollah-engineered collapse of the Lebanese government. meanwhile. there is not enough support against Iranian interests. until now. and is unlikely to reappear anytime soon. Those large demonstrations are being cited as the sparks that ignited the imagination of all who live under repressive regimes in the Middle East. Unlike Arabs. Arab countries have also had dictators who were supported. This Iranian narrative. One reason the green movement lost steam in Iran. is that the government has been successful in portraying itself — at least to moderate supporters — as being aligned with Western interests. It largely ignored. as the 2009 post-election crisis is described. the government has not shied away from gleefully reporting the Arab uprisings. If there is any secret desire among U. that turned out to be an illusion. But Iran has been free of foreign influence — even if its citizens haven’t always agreed with the government’s policies.cfm?uuid=D87B8D53-EA90-B6B4-DB70DE791553C0EC) CJC There has been a temptation in the West to tie the convulsions in Tunisia. interests. 2011. which affect ordinary citizens’ quality of life. of democratic movements. is far closer to the truth.S. But major change in Iran is unlikely to come . Iran has been more politically analogous to the red state.S. at least among the majority of Iranians. with Ahmadinejad and his government.” meaning Tunisia could. In the West. much like the Cedar Revolution. those hopes will most likely be dashed. Iranians have a long history. indeed. Support for the supreme leader and the Islamic system was.S.S. was a lifetime dictator closely allied with Thursday File Aff – No Iran Reform There will be no Iranian overthrow of government sparked from the Egyptian protests. As with the Lebanese protests. Iran has been subjected to U. an Iranian-American writer. however. But it is indisputable that the popular opinion of Arab states runs contrary to what we ordinarily call “U. Many of the green movement’s demands still resonate with Iranians — some even. however. That is not to say that there is no discontent or that the green movement — more a civil rights movement than the revolution that many in the West had hoped for — is completely irrelevant. however. while Arab countries are key strategic allies and their governments receive billions of dollars in U. politically or even religiously. had focused on protesters and demonstrators in 2009 and on the government’s heavy crackdown. January 31.” It is not so different in Iran — except that popular opinion on U. the most pro-American — but not pro-U. Iran couldn’t or. “Tunis envy. Iranian exiles and many Western analysts have declared the country an unredeemable dictatorship. more than a century. is in line with the government’s. citizens see politics as usual: continuing disputes. better yet. foreign policy — in the region. Rather. blue state dynamic in the United States than to the one-man rule of many Arab states. famously. The West’s view that Iran has an overwhelmingly unpopular dictatorship and that the green movement sought to overthrow the political system is fundamentally wrong. is the author of “The Ayatollahs’ Democracy: An Iranian Challenge”. and is. officials that Iran’s opposition green movement will now be motivated by what it inspired and rise up again to overthrow the Islamic system. which swept the shah off the Peacock Throne and into ignominious exile. Arab protesters could have only dreamed about what Iran has achieved politically in the past 30-plus years. In Tehran. Both before and after the contested 2009 election. coddled and encouraged by Washington and who acted against the wishes of their citizens. Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. challenges and debate among the three branches of government — with Ahmadinejad not always coming out on top. and Iran’s youth are. But there was little indication that Iran’s youth were readying themselves for another challenge to authority. support — little of which trickles down to their citizens. But within Iran. The Iranian media covered both extensively. the extent of support that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did have — which even green movement leaders estimated to be in the millions.The media.S. But analogies are made not with the fetneh. That’s not to say that the anti-Americanism displayed by Iranians is anything but anti-imperialism. far greater.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 133/148 Cross-X. hegemony as much as they are against dictatorship.S. much like Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak. evidently. It may be a stretch for the Iranian government to proclaim that Arab protesters are revolting against U. Majd – 1/31 (Hooman Majd. Facile comparisons aside. Persians are not Arabs and have little in common with them culturally. But Iran’s green movement had more in common with the Lebanese Cedar Revolution of 2005 than with the 2011 uprising in North Africa. Iran natunest. In the almost two years since. “Iran won't take cues from Egypt”. Egypt and elsewhere in the Arab world to Iran’s 2009 green movement protests. Their struggle since the fall of the shah for representative government has not depended on the removal of one man or one family. http://dyn.politico. Iranian supporters of the green movement were quick to disseminate catchy slogans: “Tunes tunest. or sedition. But.” Certainly there may be Iranians who are envious of the ease with which the Arabs dispatched their leader. sanctions. the green movement’s large number of demonstrators gave the impression that the entire country was unified behind one goal. apart from the severity of the government’s crackdown.

unlike in the Arab 134/148 Thursday File about through street protests — which is why no one calls for them anymore. Not while the whole country. ***A2: Muslim Brotherhood Bad*** .Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. isn’t united in hatred of its leaders.

com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military. said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” yesterday. might seize control of the country. Feb 13. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger.S. lawmakers have raised concerns that the Muslim Brotherhood. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”.. “I don’t think the military are going to let the Muslim Brotherhood take over and the Muslim Brotherhood know that and they’re keeping their heads down. they don’t want power and the military would NEVER allow it.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 135/148 Cross-X. http://www. Thursday File Aff – Egypt – No I/L: Muslim Brotherhood Muslim Brotherhood will not rise to control the government. and saying basically they don’t want to take over. reporter for Bloomberg an opposition group accused of terrorist ties. “Public Praise. 2011. . a former ambassador to Israel who is vice president for foreign policy at the nonprofit Brookings Institution in Washington.” Martin Indyk.html) CJC Other U.

This guts their extremist internal which are critical to their impact story." he . in my opinion we need a national consensus. said the movement would not run any candidate for upcoming presidential elections. "We are not going to have a candidate for the upcoming presidential elections. But he said the Brotherhood's top leadership had decided on the creation of a party. 2011. Sun News – 2/14 (LEE KEATH and HAMZA HENDAWI . They are eager to have a political party.thesunnews. “Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood plans political party”. Its time for solidarity.html#storylink=mirelated) CJC The Brotherhood announced Tuesday that it would form a party once promised freer laws are in place." spokesman Mohammed Mursi said in a statement on the Brotherhood website. Feb. Essam el-Arian. acknowledging that such a move would be too Thursday File Aff – Egypt – Brotherhood Won’t Run No Internal link – Muslim Brotherhood will not run for election. its time for unity.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 136/148 Cross-X. "The Muslim Brotherhood group believes in the freedom of the formation of political parties.Associated Press reporters. a prominent Brotherhood figures. 14. http://www.

html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS %3A+Politics%29) CJC Rosefsky Wickham. an associate professor of political science at Emory University and notes that the Brotherhood is an umbrella organization that encompasses different views and trends.D.htm) CJC The United States has played a role of wait-and-see as protests have raged across Tunisia and Egypt. has won the Brotherhood's support.egypt/index. These fears are overblown. as they have with Hamas in Palestine or Hezbollah in Thursday File Aff – Egypt – A2: Muslim Brotherhood Bad Muslim Brotherhood does not represent a threat to transition to radical Islam in Egypt. we may not be perfect. for a democratic coalition to come to power in Egypt it has to make political room for religious groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood. can best be summed up: Hey. But after being banned in 1954. an opposition candidate for president. secure foreign aid and snap up White House invitations. 2011.cnn. February 2. The Atlantic's Robert Kaplan describes the group as a "community self-help organization. any grassroots reform coalition in Egypt must win the Brotherhood's support. Their relationship vis-à-vis the U. http://www. But Washington cannot wish away their widespread support among Egypt's religious classes. Rosefsky believes it will.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 137/148 Cross-X. Indeed. but trust me. as the country's largest opposition movement. And the bulk of its membership comprises moderates committed to peaceful relations with Egypt's neighbors. The Brotherhood also suffers from an image problem. True. As a result. “The Sweep: The risk of democracy in the Middle East”.com/news/opinion/forum/2011-02-01-column01_ST2_N. U. its orientation was hardly pro-democratic. CNN Staff. but to reform Egyptian politics by cleaning up corruption and releasing political prisoners. when the group was founded in a smoky coffeehouse in 1920s Cairo. the group does have a presence among the masses. http://www. arguing that the Brotherhood is less interested in seizing power and calling the shots than it is in spreading its message and influencing policy. The political scientist Barrington Moore once famously posited: "No bourgeoisie. We have seen this in spades since 9/11. Nor is it clear they'd install an Iran-style theocracy. “In Egypt. Mohamed ElBaradei. CNN – 2/2 (Elise Labott and Josh Levs. Though technically illegal. including Israel. He is also a member of USA TODAY's Board of Contributors. some foreign policy observers are urging caution in calling for regime change or immediate elections. Islamic role is essential But let's face it. but it is no longer the defiant anti-system movement it was in the past. It is more popular than Egypt's liberal opposition." What we are seeing is the Arab world corollary: No Islamist representation. There is concern that a party inhospitable to American interests — namely the Muslim Brotherhood — could fill a power vacuum were President Hosni Mubarak to be tossed from office like Tunisia's Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Activism and Political Change in Egypt." The Muslim Brotherhood is not a threat to US interests. the alternative is worse. Beehner – 2/1 (Lionel Beehner is a fellow with the Truman National Security Project and Ph. 'Islamist' fears overblown”. candidate in political science at Yale University." Even though its members support sharia law. their primary aim is not to roll back women's rights or install an Islamic caliphate (much less a Taliban-style haven for terrorists). Indeed. and nonMuslims. Other experts believe the Brotherhood will grab power if given the chance. The threat posed by Islamists seizing power is more often than not a crutch used by autocrats to safeguard their 2/1/2011. Their turns are overblown rhetoric without specific facts about the Muslim Brotherhood. no democracy. Carrie author of "Mobilizing Islam: Religion.usatoday. policy still feels . given its offshoots with ties to terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda and its alleged role in the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in 1981.S. And some Muslim Brothers have participated in the recent protests. when presidents from Pakistan's Pervez Musharraf to Egypt's Mubarak played up the threat of radical Islamists at home to secure more goodies from Washington — namely billions of dollars worth of aid and military hardware — and retain power. though their role and influence remain unclear. no democracy. That isn't a bad the movement drifted from the fiery rhetoric of past enlistees such as al-Qaeda deputy Ayman al-Zawahri— or even the anti-American theologian Sayyid Qutb — to make room for liberal values.S. The key question is whether the Brotherhood will continue to exercise self-restraint when the Mubarak regime falls.

And he must. whether now or later this year.S. so too will the Muslim Brotherhood be part of a future — and. but whether he will accept them. This isn't Iran Also. Let us not forget that America's two most recent nation-building efforts have resulted in the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and an Iraqi constitution that defines the country as an Islamic Democratic Republic. Egypt is not post-Shah Iran. yes. just as we tend to oversentimentalize the secular opposition candidates as saints. The question is not whether the Muslim Brotherhood will seek to join ElBaradei's coalition. Post-9/11 paranoia about radical Islam has made too many Americans allergic to the "I" word in political movements — an untenable position in the Middle East as the U." Max Boot of the Council on Foreign Relations wrote recently. democratic — Egypt. the only way to find out would be to let them take over. Indeed. a secular Thursday File hamstrung from the memories of Iran in 1979. If the Brotherhood wins in a landslide. . should back elections there. meanwhile." President Obama pledged in his June 2009 speech in Cairo. they would not have thrown their support behind ElBaradei. Just as the Taliban will be included in whatever future government of Afghanistan finally sticks. There are no colorful or anti-American religious clerics like Ayatollah Khomeini waiting in the wings.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 138/148 Cross-X. itself has acknowledged in practice. so too do we demonize parties with a religious bent. The United States." Maybe. that could be preferable to propping up an unpopular dictator. "Unfortunately. We cannot avoid free elections because of the threat of Islamist parties. "This cycle of suspicion and discord must end. but if the Brothers were hell-bent on installing an Iranian- style theocracy. Moderate Islam is an essential part of democracy in the Middle East —Washington needs to start reading its own memos. "Whether the Brotherhood would in fact try to impose such a (theocratic) regime is unknown.

Kaseem told me.” Mr. “Egypt’s Bumbling Brotherhood”.000 adherents out of a population of over 80 million. On Tuesday. notably the Muslim Brotherhood. from which you are banned to possess. This has made it a target of Al Qaeda’s venom.” Many people outside Egypt believe that the Brotherhood gains political influence by providing health clinics and charity for the poor. Such support as it does have among Egyptians — an often cited figure is 20 percent to 30 percent — is less a matter of true attachment than an accident of circumstance: the many decades of suppression of secular opposition groups that might have countered it. Nonetheless. The British. It might be able to recover lost leverage by showing its organizational tenacity in resisting the attempts to repress the demonstrators. And although their means are very different. he would just shut down the cafe and arrest us.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss) CJC AS Egyptians clash over the future of their government.”. Ever since its founding in 1928 as a rival to Western-inspired nationalist movements that had failed to free Egypt from foreign powers. In January 2006. Americans and Europeans have repeatedly expressed fears of the Muslim Brotherhood. “Israel must know that it is not welcome by the people in this region. notably its stance against Israel. “but not in America and Europe. Erian told me. “Political groups support ElBaradei to negotiate with the regime. a former member of the Brotherhood’s Guidance Council.” This kind of flip-flopping makes many Egyptians scoff. the Brotherhood’s importance will rapidly fade. who would take this in a different direction. Although originally the Brotherhood was organized into paramilitary cells. is the author of “Talking to the Enemy: Faith. Gamal Abdel Nasser and Anwar elSadat all faced the same problem that Hisham Kaseem. But here’s the real deal. the Muslim Brotherhood has tried to revive Islamic power. the former British prime minister. expressed hope that Hosni Mubarak would stay on as president of Egypt while instituting reforms to prevent the Muslim Brotherhood and other extremists from grabbing power.” People in the West frequently conflate the Brotherhood and Al Qaeda. The wealthier businessmen who often sponsor them tend to shun the Brotherhood. so the Brotherhood survived. 11 to “brainwash” people into thinking of all Muslim activists as terrorists. Kaseem said. A Brotherhood spokesman. When the army allowed hundreds of Mubarak supporters and plainclothes policemen through barricades on Wednesday to muscle out protesters. however. But the very poor in Egypt are not very politically active. John Boehner. and few Islamic slogans or chants were heard.nytimes. or wars with other democracies. The Brotherhood realized that in addition to being late. an anthropologist at France’s National Center for Scientific Research. Erian about this. blasted the Brotherhood’s willingness to participate in parliamentary elections and reject nuclear arms. a newspaper editor and human rights activist. Many of the other clinics are Islamic in orientation simply because most Egyptians are Islamic.” Mr. And according to Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh. the Brotherhood counts perhaps some 100. at least as many Egyptians see it. But it is because democracies tolerate disparate political groups that they generally don’t have civil wars. In Egypt today. today it forswears violence in political struggle. “You also have others. “But you can’t close mosques. said of Egypt on Monday.” If Egyptians are given political breathing space. The street. And because the Brotherhood itself is not monolithic — it has many factions — it could well . Mr.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 139/148 Cross-X. the House speaker.” Tony Blair. Their evidence is not supported by facts on the ground in Egypt and the military will check back and ensure a peaceful transition. You “falsely affiliated with Islam. Brotherhood and the (Un)making of Terrorists. described playing out under Mr. many ignored him and few rallied to his side despite the enormous publicity he was receiving in the Western press. Erian said.” he said in vilifying the group. This error was compounded when the Brotherhood threw in its lot with Mohamed ElBaradei. the former leader of Egypt’s Islamic Jihad and Al Qaeda’s leading strategist. Dr. ElBaradei strode into Tahrir Square. Essam el-Erian. even many Egyptians suspect that they share a common end that is alien to democracy. Obviously the Brotherhood wants power and its positions. Kaseem said. the Muslim Brotherhood may have gained an opportunity. “You don’t just have a government and a movement for democracy. manifests little support for the Brotherhood. Moreover. Dr. the University of Michigan and John Jay College. it might be backing the wrong horse. which fear them as the bogeyman. if only to protect their businesses from government disapproval. Atran – 2/2 (Scott Atran. “If people met in a cafe and talked about things the regime didn’t like. And its failure to support the initial uprising in Cairo on Jan. 25 has made it marginal to the spirit of revolt now spreading through the Arab world. When I asked Dr. told Al Thursday File Aff – Egypt – A2: Muslim Brotherhood Takeover Muslim Brotherhood does not have the ability to take control. the former diplomat and Nobel Prize winner. Mubarak had conspired after Sept. Ayman al-Zawahri. “It’s too early to even discuss whether ElBaradei should lead a transitional government or whether we will join him. Only a small minority of the protesters in Tahrir Square joined its members in prayers there (estimates range from 5 percent to 10 percent).” The previous day. “In this uprising the Brotherhood is almost invisible. 2011. a city of 18 million. are problematic for American interests. he retorted that the United States and Mr. “You forget about the rule of Shariah.” Dr. King Farouk. welcome the Crusaders’ bases in your countries and acknowledge the existence of the Jews who are fully armed with nuclear weapons. February 2. the Brotherhood did not arrive at this historical moment with the advantage of wide public favor. the group has only six clinics in Cairo. Yet in 83 years it has botched every opportunity. adding that “the street” knew the truth. the Brotherhood will probably have representatives in any freely elected government. http://www.” But when Mr.

Even a military leader with an I. A military in control behind the scenes — for a while — is probably the best hope for a peaceful transition. Hardly anyone I talked to believes that democracy can be established overnight. If Egypt is allowed to find its own way.S. Though in one sense it happened overnight.” both of which in recent decades have had coups on the heels of democratic elections.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.” urged Mr. independent of the Brotherhood or any old guard opposition. their interests are mostly secular. “Egypt is missing instruments essential to any functioning democracy and these must be established in the transition period — an independent judiciary. Mubarak now — and over the next decade real democratic reforms will be instituted. as it so promisingly began to do over the past week. Kaseem. the intelligence chief and new vice president. “Let the U. “They are only bungling things with calls for immediate reforms and against the Brotherhood. Mubarak responsible for the violence and privately inform the Egyptian Army that it cannot support any institution that is 140/148 Thursday File succumb to internal division if there really were a political opening for other groups in Egypt. The more common assessment even among democracy advocates is that the military will retain control — Omar Suleiman. a representative Parliament. We are handling this beautifully. What we are seeing in Egypt is a revolt led by digitally informed young people and joined by families from all rungs of society. But there is little reason for the United States to fear a takeover by the Muslim Brotherhood.” Mr. stay away. the problems of violent extremism and waves of emigration that America and Europe most fear from this unhappy region could well fade as its disaffected youth at last find hope at home.” If America’s already teetering standing among Egyptians and across the Arab and Muslim world is not to topple altogether.A. an open press. although that may reflect a vain hope of using that time to broaden its popular support enough to reach a controlling plurality. they are connected and they will get power in the end. will be acceptable to Egyptians if the army gets rid of Mr. the United States must now publicly hold Mr. who insisted that he is pro-American and abhors the Brotherhood. “If you try to push democracy tomorrow we’ll end up like Mauritania or Sudan. The Brotherhood leadership talks of a year or two of transition. ***A2: Suez Canal*** . Egyptians are a pretty savvy lot. of 30 wouldn’t go down the same path as Mubarak because he would understand that the people of Egypt who are out in the streets are no longer apathetic. Kaseem said. many of its young proponents have long been working behind the scenes.

com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – US Will Keep Suez Canal Open US is prepared to intervene to keep the Suez Canal open. "There's no reason right now for any shift in military forces or anything like feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29)CJC The United States would respond "diplomatically. I've not requested or directed anything like that." he said. Reuters – 2/1 (Staff. "The short answer is no. I've not received any orders. sees Suez Canal closure as inconceivable”." he said. militarily. He had been asked if the United States would be prepared to act if there were any disruptions to the key shipping channel because of instability in Egypt. the head of U. whatever. http://www." he said. James Mattis said. militarily" to any closure of the Suez Canal although such an event seems inconceivable. speaking at a London event hosted by the Policy Exchange think tank.S. . Central Command said on Tuesday. economically. but that to me is hypothetical and I would defer to the political leaders. economically. Mattis said the United States had no plans to re-order its military forces in the region because of instability in North Africa. 2011. “U. These issues do not call for a military solution right now. "Were it to happen obviously we would have to deal with it (Reuters) diplomatically. I just can't imagine the motive to shut that down.reuters. Feb 1.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 141/148 Cross-X." Gen.S. "When you look at the fiscal impact of that (closing the canal) on whoever is in a position of authority in Egypt.

politico.H. some mitigating factors. 2011.”. a Washington think tank. The canal and pipeline together control only about 3 percent of the world’s crude oil Thursday File Aff – Egypt – A2: Oil Cut-Off No Impact and No Risk that Oil gets cut off regardless who is in control in Egypt. which guards the canal — badly needs the revenue it generates.cfm?uuid=DE7516BA-D472-D8EDD73BCE853D37CED6) CJC There are. and they are going to need it in a hurry. “Whoever is governing is going to need money. http://dyn. however. February 1. And Egypt — especially the army.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 142/148 Cross-X. “Egypt: Worst scenarios for W.” said former State Department and Defense Department official Anthony a Middle East expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. POLITICO – 2/1 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico and Mike Allen is the chief political correspondent for Politico and Laura Rozen is a reporter at POLITICO. “There’s no leverage in cutting off a key earner.” . They don’t need a big spike in gas prices to go along with a 20 percent hike in food prices.

“In the event of a shutdown.000 barrels of oil per day from Egypt to other parts of the world. oil flowing northbound could be diverted to Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude oil pipeline.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 143/148 Cross-X. “turning a 15-hour trip into a 600-hour trip. 01/31/11. which carries 3. Book said the result would be “nontrivial. but manageable.” Book said. However. an analyst at ClearView Energy Partners. But the analyst warned that widespread protests across the Middle East that shut down key oil supply routes could pose a threat. which currently runs at reduced capacity. Energy and Environmental Reporter for The Hill. however.” The real problems. “Egypt's unrest revives debate about U. oil would have to be rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope at the tip of Africa. would come if protests in Yemen affected oil transport through the nearby Strait of Bab el-Mandab.S. Despite the length in transit. Restuccia – 1/31 (Andrew Restuccia. The other issue of concern.” ***A2: Aid Cuts*** .com Thursday File A2: Suez Canal Shut Down = No Impact There is no impact to shutting down the Suez Canal. Kevin Book. http://thehill. which carries about 600.2 million barrels of oil per day to other countries. it is only if there is a spill over in the Middle East.” Book said. Book said. is whether countries like Iran and Venezuela “seize upon tight global oil system capacity to air grievances or issue proclamations. oil dependency”. southbound flows would still be blocked. Book CJC A leading energy analyst said Monday that a short-term shutdown of the Suez Canal would likely not result in major problems. reserves from International Energy Agency countries could cover any losses. If the Suez Canal. If the Suez Canal closure lasted too long. said the biggest concern is how unrest in Egypt might affect the transport of oil. were to be shut down for a short time.

“Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”." said Jon Alterman.reuters. a House aide said. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC "I have a hard time seeing the politics come together in order to have a bipartisan and bicameral agreement on cutting aid to Egypt soon.reuters. director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell. http://www. 2011. There will be no feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Republican aides doubt there will be any major cuts in military aid to Egypt in the House version of an upcoming bill to fund the government from March through September 30. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”. "I don't think Americans have a clear view yet (of events in Egypt) and therefore it's hard for Congress to have a clear view. House . The bill should be on the House floor by the week of February 14. http://www. Feb 2." Alterman said. 2011. leaving scant time for big policy changes. Feb Thursday File Aff – Egypt – No Aid Cuts Aid will not get cut anytime soon. Staff.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 144/148 Cross-X. not enough time to cut it from the budget. Staff.

Abdel Fattah said. Dorell – 2/14 (Oren Thursday File Aff – Egypt Policy -> Israel Inev.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 145/148 Cross-X. Most agree that clamped down on arms to Hamas and opposed Hezbollah. For years." he said. Mubarak The Brotherhood wants to put Egypt's peace treaty with Israel up to a referendum. Even liberals say they will pay more attention to the Palestinians than Mubarak did. And if the government decides to open border crossings between Egypt and the Gaza terror group that rules Gaza. http://www. Reporter at USA TODAY.S.usatoday. Change Egyptian policy toward Israel will change inevitably. "we will support Hamas like others will. referring to the U. “Ideology shadows fight to rule the new Egypt”. ***A2: Israel*** ***Offense*** . 2/14/2011.htm) CJC Egypt's policy toward Israel will change no matter who gains power.

H. thinks . POLITICO – 2/1 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico and Mike Allen is the chief political correspondent for Politico and Laura Rozen is a reporter at POLITICO. “This makes it clear that Israel and Palestine have to come to a significant peace agreement — sooner rather than later because there is going to be tremendous instability in Egypt for the foreseeable future. for one. February 1. Thursday File Aff – Egypt – Turn: Peace Process The failure of the Egypt-Israel Peace Accords would spark Israel-Palestinian deal.cfm?uuid=DE7516BA-D472-D8EDD73BCE853D37CED6) CJC the looming shift away from the Camp David Accords could be a spur to peace negotiators.” he said. Gregg.”. “Egypt: Worst scenarios for http://dyn.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 146/148 Cross-X.

To be sure.S. Events in Egypt are mostly out of our control. America’s inability to engineer political outcomes in the region — or even predict them — has been demonstrated in events ranging from the outcome of the Iraq War itself to contests for power in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories. one wonders whether the Iranian people might succeed if the regime were robbed of its ability to point fingers at the West. When the Bush administration used the Iraq War as a vehicle to spread democratic change in the Middle East.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 147/148 Cross-X. it will continue to prefer cooperative regimes over a public will that goes against it. where there is obvious public opposition to the clerical regime. The outcome has been that. polls of Arabs revealed their sense that the Middle East is even less democratic than before. voice on behalf of regime change in Cairo. many of whom were happy to get Washington’s support to throw off their dictator but were still unhappy with U. including those in places supporting an Egyptian revolution. But it’s deeper and more complex — as we have seen in the attitudes of the Iraqi people. Whether President Barack Obama publicly calls for President Hosni Mubarak to resign will very likely have little effect on Arab and Egyptian public opinion. It is partly about that.”. every year since the Iraq War began. The Iraq War was most telling. is that the revolt was not viewed as directly related to the West.S. There is a sense in U. 2011.politico. It will quite likely be mocked by Hassan Nasrallah of Hezbollah — just as he mocked France for how quickly it abandoned its client after Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali’s departure from Tunisia. January 31. This includes places like Iran. national discourse that the anger with the United States is only about its support for authoritarian governments in the region. does take a forceful position.cfm? uuid=D88A5DBE-DB47-2BCB-9B6BD331D950FDD0) CJC Ever since Egypt’s public demonstrations calling for regime change began. must side with people standing for self-determination and freedom. for its own sake. The United States support of repressive regimes because they are willing to support US policy means more oppression of people to keep them quiet. is fighting wars in the Middle East and is invested in the outcome of the ArabIsraeli conflict.S. we must have no illusion about how it will be spun by many Arabs. intentions put the genuine democracy advocates in the region on the defensive. Telhami – 1/31 ( Shibley Telhami is Anwar Sadat professor for peace and development at the University of Maryland and a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Washington has been debating what the White House should or should not say. foreign policy. Even in Iran. it is that these historic and indigenous events in Egypt must not become about the United States. many democracy advocates want to see a more forceful Thursday File Aff – Withdraw = More Democratic Reforms Large military foot print in the middle-east drives repression and will spark continued violent backlash against oppressive regimes. “Upheaval in Egypt: Not about the U. as if American words in the middle of an upheaval that is not our doing can affect the outcome in Egypt and turn the tide of Arab public opinion in favor of the United States. In any case.S. and from the U. and even many .S. Even as the United States was waging a war partly in the name of democracy. who are prepared to risk their lives for them. But let’s have no illusion about the effect of what we say on the outcome in Egypt — or throughout the Arab world. If and when the U. one has to wonder whether these events could have taken place even earlier had there not been the diversion of the Iraq War — and whether these upheavals might have swept away Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship without shots being fired from the outside.S. But if there is any lesson to be learned from Tunisia. The United States. But others.S. Washington is likely to be seen as attempting to control events — moving to pre-empt the public will and engineering an outcome to its liking. Resolving Washington’s dilemma in its relationship with authoritarian rulers in the region will not be addressed by White House speeches or even the elimination of U. are already asking whether the Egyptian upheaval was instigated by Washington — with some “evidence” presented. anger with the United States on foreign policy issues — particularly Iraq and the Arab-Israeli conflict — and deep suspicion of U. like the Al Jazeera network. the vast majority of the Arab public passionately opposed it. As we witness the remarkable and inspiring events in both Tunisia and Egypt. policy in the region in the past few years. as indicated by the contestation over the 2009 presidential election. As long as the United States has a heavy military footprint in the region. One reason the Tunisian revolution succeeded in toppling the president without major ramifications for the U.S. foreign aid. The plan moves away from a large military footprint in the middle east allowing for more democratic reforms. It’s not up to the United States to determine who the next president of Egypt will be.

Given that repression now appears to be failing.S. reacted in the way they knew best: They became even more repressive. policy in the region — beyond what happens in Egypt. regardless of who rules at the 148/148 Thursday File governments counseled against it — largely for fear of public opposition. security service to security service. priorities. These agencies are the anchors of repression in the region. intelligence to intelligence.S. Today. But we insisted and we rewarded and we threatened — and got our way with most.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. are military to military. . which made them even more insecure. our closest institutional relationships in the Arab world. The net result was that those governments that went against the will of the overwhelming majority. this is a moment for a bigger assessment of U. driven by strategic U.

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