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Cross-X.com Thursday File
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley..................................................................................................................1 ***Notes***.....................................................................................................................................5 ***1NC Shell***...............................................................................................................................6 *****Uniqueness*****..............................................................................................10 *****Uniqueness*****....................................................................................................................10 UQ Ext – A2: Dip Cap Low..............................................................................................................11 UQ Ext – A2: Military Control = N/U...............................................................................................12 UQ Ext – Focused Diplomacy.........................................................................................................13 Diplomacy Focus Key....................................................................................................................15 UQ Ext – Military Diplomacy..........................................................................................................16 UQ Ext – US Has Influence Over Military.......................................................................................18 UQ Ext – Timeframe – Next Few Months Key.................................................................................19 UQ Ext – Dip. K2 Election Timing...................................................................................................20 *****Links*****.......................................................................................................20 *****Links*****..............................................................................................................................20 A2: Link Turns: Timing – (A Must Read).........................................................................................21 2NC Link Magnifier - Focus............................................................................................................22 2NC Link Magnifier – Perception....................................................................................................23 2NC Aid Link Magnifier..................................................................................................................24 Ext – Aid Link: A2 Aid Cuts Now.....................................................................................................26 Ext – Aid Link: Econ Spark Instability.............................................................................................27 2NC Links – Plan Kills Coercive Diplomacy ..................................................................................28 Link – General...............................................................................................................................30 Link – Military Change...................................................................................................................35 Link – Afghanistan ........................................................................................................................36 Links – Asia....................................................................................................................................39 Link – Japan...................................................................................................................................41 Link – South Korea.........................................................................................................................42 Link – Iraq .....................................................................................................................................43 Link – TNWs ..................................................................................................................................48 Link – Turkey.................................................................................................................................51 *****Internal Links*****..........................................................................................51 *****Internal Links*****.................................................................................................................51 2NC Ext - Dip Cap Finite – Egypt...................................................................................................52 2NC Ext – Dip Cap Finite – Middle East..........................................................................................53 2NC Ext – Dip Cap Finite...............................................................................................................54 2NC Ext – Diplomatic Capital Key – Plan Cost................................................................................56 Military K2 Secular Transition........................................................................................................57 A2: Military Not Relinquish Power.................................................................................................59 Dip. K2 Transition – Military...........................................................................................................60 Sustained Diplomacy Checks Extremist Rise.................................................................................62 Dip Cap Checks Spillover..............................................................................................................63 A2: No Influence............................................................................................................................64 *****Impact Scenarios*****.....................................................................................64 *****Impact Scenarios*****...........................................................................................................64 ***Suez Canal Shell***............................................................................................64 ***Suez Canal Shell***..................................................................................................................64
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.com 2/148 Thursday File Close Suez Canal = Price Shocks..................................................................................................66 Egypt K2 Oil Markets.....................................................................................................................67 Egypt – Military K2 Suez Canal......................................................................................................68 Impact Magnifier: Saudi Arabia.....................................................................................................69 ***Leadership Shell***..................................................................................................................70 Ext - Leadership............................................................................................................................74 ***Terrorism Shell***..............................................................................................74 ***Terrorism Shell***....................................................................................................................74 Egypt Intel = Best.........................................................................................................................76 Egypt – Counterterrorism..............................................................................................................77 Yemen Spillover............................................................................................................................78 Spillover -> Yemen = Terrorism....................................................................................................79 ***Instability Shell***.............................................................................................79 ***Instability Shell***....................................................................................................................79 Ext – Instability..............................................................................................................................81 ME Diplomacy – Bahrain & Yemen................................................................................................82 Yemen Counter Terrorism.............................................................................................................83 ***Bahrain Shell***.................................................................................................83 ***Bahrain Shell***........................................................................................................................83 Bahrain – 5th Fleet........................................................................................................................87 Bahrain Spillover -> Gulf Oil States...............................................................................................88 Egypt -> Bahrain...........................................................................................................................89 ***Israel Relations Shell***.....................................................................................89 ***Israel Relations Shell***............................................................................................................89 Israel Brink....................................................................................................................................92 A2: Brotherhood Not A Threat.......................................................................................................93 ***Muslim Brotherhood***......................................................................................93 ***Muslim Brotherhood***.............................................................................................................93 Muslim Brotherhood Pushing For Control .....................................................................................94 A2: Muslim Brotherhood Not Win Enough Seats............................................................................95 Egypt – Influence K2 Avoid Islam Rise...........................................................................................96 Brotherhood = Price Spikes...........................................................................................................98 Brotherhood = Econ Collapse........................................................................................................99 Brotherhood = ME Instability......................................................................................................100 Muslim Brother Hood Pushing For Power.....................................................................................101 Brotherhood = No MEPP..............................................................................................................102 Transition K2 Check Muslim Brotherhood....................................................................................103 A2: Muslim Brotherhood Not Threat............................................................................................104 ***Foreign Aid***.................................................................................................104 ***Foreign Aid***.........................................................................................................................104 Congress Cut Aid.........................................................................................................................105 Aid: Peaceful Transition K2 Prevent Cut......................................................................................106 Aid K2 Leverage..........................................................................................................................107 Aid K2 Arms Sales.......................................................................................................................108 Aid Cut Quickly............................................................................................................................109 Egypt – A2: No Aid Cut – Budget.................................................................................................110 Egypt – Aid On Table...................................................................................................................111
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.com 3/148 Thursday File ***Iran***............................................................................................................111 ***Iran***....................................................................................................................................111 Diplomacy = Iran Transition........................................................................................................112 ***** Affirmative Answers*****..............................................................................113 ***** Affirmative Answers*****...................................................................................................113 ***2AC F/L***..............................................................................................................................114 ***Uniqueness Ans.***..........................................................................................117 ***Uniqueness Ans.***................................................................................................................117 Aff – Egypt – N/U: Dip Cap Low....................................................................................................118 ***Link Level***...................................................................................................118 ***Link Level***...........................................................................................................................118 Iraq Aff – Link Turn......................................................................................................................119 Afghanistan Aff – Link Turn ........................................................................................................120 Iraq Aff – Link Turn......................................................................................................................122 Japan Aff – Link Turn...................................................................................................................123 Link – Link Turn – South Korea K Aff............................................................................................124 ***Internal Answers***.........................................................................................124 ***Internal Answers***................................................................................................................124 Aff – Egypt: No Influence.............................................................................................................125 Aff – Egypt: Aid =/= Influence.....................................................................................................126 Aff – Egypt – No Influence...........................................................................................................127 Aff – Egypt – No Influence: Military..............................................................................................129 ***Impact Ans.***.................................................................................................129 ***Impact Ans.***........................................................................................................................129 ***A2: Counterterrorism***...................................................................................129 ***A2: Counterterrorism***.........................................................................................................129 A2: Counterterrorism Impacts.....................................................................................................130 ***A2: Spillover/Instability***................................................................................130 ***A2: Spillover/Instability***......................................................................................................130 Aff – No Egypt Spillover...............................................................................................................131 ***A2: Iran Reform***...........................................................................................132 ***A2: Iran Reform***..................................................................................................................132 Aff – No Iran Reform....................................................................................................................133 ***A2: Muslim Brotherhood Bad***........................................................................134 ***A2: Muslim Brotherhood Bad***.............................................................................................134 Aff – Egypt – No I/L: Muslim Brotherhood....................................................................................135 Aff – Egypt – Brotherhood Won’t Run..........................................................................................136 Aff – Egypt – A2: Muslim Brotherhood Bad..................................................................................137 Aff – Egypt – A2: Muslim Brotherhood Takeover..........................................................................139 ***A2: Suez Canal***............................................................................................140 ***A2: Suez Canal***...................................................................................................................140 Aff – Egypt – US Will Keep Suez Canal Open...............................................................................141 Aff – Egypt – A2: Oil Cut-Off.........................................................................................................142 A2: Suez Canal Shut Down = No Impact.....................................................................................143
....................................145 ***A2: Israel***...........145 ***Offense***......................................................................................................................................................................................144 Aff – Egypt Policy -> Israel Inev........147 ...................................................................................................................................................com 4/148 Thursday File ***A2: Aid Cuts***.........................................................................143 Aff – Egypt – No Aid Cuts. Change.......................................................................................................................................................................145 ***Offense***.......Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X................................................................................................................................145 Aff – Egypt – Turn: Peace Process...............................................................143 ***A2: Aid Cuts***......................................146 Aff – Withdraw = More Democratic Reforms.............................................................145 ***A2: Israel***.....................................................................................................................
Internal Link. this argument puts you there. Impact Scenarios: All of your favorites are right there at your finger-tips from the general Econ impacts from Oil Price Shocks to hyper-specific scenarios about U. All three happen very quickly. you can branch out because the US is forced to deal with all of the Middle East turmoil at once as a result of Egypt allowing you to diversify and magnify your impacts. A. B.com Thursday File ***Notes*** Why you should choose to run Egypt. Awesome Timeframes. C. Carriers in the Gulf. The internal link evidence about our focus on Egypt is fantastic right now. All of these impacts feed from one source. . Sometimes it is just good to be on the side of truth in the world. All of the Uniqueness evidence and Internals take into account the fact that Mubarak has left power and is only talking in terms of US diplomatic response to the transition to elections. and Impacts. You are not limited to Egypt after the 1NC.S. D. US diplomatic response in the Middle East as a result of the Egypt Crisis. Nothing in the Status Quo or Affirmative can top the timeframe of the Link.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 5/148 Cross-X.
military primacy and the implications that this decline would have for Australian security and stability in the Asia–Pacific. Michael Mullen. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. and Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Mullen had some contact with their military counterparts.amazonaws. spokesman Geoff Morrell said. CNN – 2/12 (Elise Labott and Barbara Starr. Clinton also is dispatching Under Secretary William Burns to Jordan to discuss "the historic events in Egypt as well as a range of other regional and bilateral issues. "It's been very difficult to get information through normal diplomatic channels given the rapid changes." a State Department statement said. U. CNN Reporters.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 6/148 Cross-X. even as it tries to determine the composition of the Egyptian military council and the line of authority in the future Egyptian government. This is already on display in the western Pacific Ocean.com/2011/POLITICS/02/12/us. Holmes. The congressman briefed reporters Friday afternoon on the condition they not use his name. “U.cnn. on Saturday.pdf] MGM The consequences of hard-power atrophy will be a direct deterioration of America’s diplomatic clout. senior officials said.S. is the first high-level contact between the two governments since President Hosni Mubarak resigned." He spoke anonymously Washington (CNN) -due to the sensitivity of the ongoing diplomacy. said a Republican congressman familiar with the administration's efforts. 6-1. State Department officials acknowledged it has been hard to reach members of the new Egyptian government during the last 48 hours. 3 official at the State Department. 2011. http://s3. U. These developments are anything but reassuring. Diplomacy between the United States and Egypt been effectively cut off. Australia released a defense White Paper that is concerned primarily with the potential decline of U. (Insert Specific Link or read this generic evidence) Decreasing military deployments kills diplomatic influence. Adm. the No." one senior State Department official said." But the official added. Recently. Current efforts will succeed.d. and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is expected to call leaders in the region this weekend. US diplomacy has been launched throughout the Middle East to deal with the transition of power to the military and future transition to democracy. and Egyptian officials said they expected the two sides to resume broader and more regular consultations this weekend. Ambassador to Egypt Margaret Scobey has had some contact with the foreign ministry. And you can imagine. "We have to figure out the pecking order. Top State Department officials are contacting every Arab foreign minister. Burns. seeks diplomatic clarity in Mideast”. previously served as an ambassador to Jordan. is already familiar with the players of the council. “Sustaining American Leadership with Military Power”. "They will have to clarify who is now the head of the government. the official said. "Whomever the Egyptians chose. http://www.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss %2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS%3A+Politics%29) CJC The Obama administration launched into diplomatic outreach throughout the Middle East Saturday. they don't want to sit down with an American right now when they've got their whole world kind of collapsing on them as we speak. A big unanswered question is the future of Vice President Omar Suleiman. U.S.com/thf_media/2009/pdf/sr0052. February 12. VP for Foreign and Defense Policy Studies and Director of the David Institute for International Studies at the Heritage Foundation. officials said. it is still unclear who is handling diplomatic issues.. Field Marshal Mohammed Hussein Tantawi. 2009 [Kim. B. Gates spoke with Egypt's defense minister.S.mubarak/index. we can have a relationship and deal with that person. While the U." the congressman said. Ph.com Thursday File ***1NC Shell*** A.S. Gates' sixth phone conversation with the Egyptian Defense Minister since the situation in Egypt began. and will visit Jordan as well.S. The ability of the United States to reassure . Diplomacy is tentative requiring focused and persistent efforts to maintain diplomatic contact.S. is headed to Israel on a scheduled visit. The discussion. where America’s ability to hedge against the growing ambitions of a rising China is being called into question by some of our key Asian allies.
it rests on the foundation of a powerful military. 2001 2 Chi." D. these priorities have been opposing hostile domination of key geographic regions. "Because diplomatic currency is finite . gesturing to a crowd listening to blaring music outside Al Ghad's downtown office. Each new issue in the bag weighs it down. Traditionally. supporting our allies. where a man danced with a gyrating woman wearing a hijab. Diplomatic capital is finite – each new issue trades off with existing issues Anderson & Grewell – 01 (Terry L. according to Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq. such as the sale of ballistic missiles or border conflicts between nations. former deputy director of the State Department's Near East & South Asia Intelligence Office.usatoday. coerce belligerent states. In the upper-class neighborhood of Zamalek. sipped sparkling fruit juices and dined on baked shrimp. Laying the groundwork for elections The Muslim Brotherhood was founded in Egypt in 1928 . http://www. Reporter at USA TODAY. and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. J. are wooing supporters. said Wael Nawara. Reuel Marc Gerecht." Egyptians of all political persuasions celebrated the departure of Mubarak. Many in the West are hopeful that a democratic Egypt. has argued that the United States should welcome the upheaval as a chance for the Arab world to modernize and allow moderate forces to gain the upper hand. under Mubarak. such as the Muslim Brotherhood. 427) CJC Foreign policy is a bag of goods that includes issues from free trade to arms trading to human rights. 82. Fall. are looking forward to running candidates openly. Nour talked as his guests sat on gilded armchairs. they will stretch the resources necessary to deal with traditional international issues. deter competitors. Egyptians want a government that adheres to the universal declaration of human rights agreed to by the United Nations. the most populous nation in the Middle East with a population of about 82 million. lessening the focus on other issues and even creating conflicts between issues. "Egyptians are very mellow. Only by building a full-spectrum military force can America reassure its many friends and allies and count on their future support. the better the chance for the already well-organized Brotherhood to maximize its gains. As countries must watch over more and more issues arising in the international policy arena. who spent years in jail for challenging Mubarak's repressive regime. will herald a new age in a troubled region where Arab despots. and defeat enemies does not rest on the strength of our political leaders’ commitment to diplomacy. "The shorter the time before new elections. members of Egypt's liberal opposition gathered Saturday night at the penthouse apartment of former presidential candidate Ayman Nour. surrounded by clapping onlookers. . Int'l L. As Schaefer writes. US influence over the Egyptian military is critical to ensure there is enough time for liberal political groups to organize to prevent a takeover by the Muslim Brotherhood in elections. C.com/news/world/2011-02-14-1Aegypt14_CV_N. Others say democracy in Egypt could help radicals gain power. Bozeman. fish and stuffed crab under a clear night sky beside the roof-top swimming pool. Anderson is executive director of Political Economy Research Center ("PERC")The Center for Free Market Environmentalism. Parties that largely were banned by Mubarak. Liberals and Islamists have announced that they intend to seek power through elections that. monarchs and sheiks have presided over restive populations from which militancy and terrorism have been exported for years.htm) CJC Leaders of political parties that dominated the protest movement disagree. "The Muslim Brotherhood don't like music or dancing. Bishop Grewell is a research associate with PERC. Dorell – 2/14 (Oren Dorell. People talked about a new dawn for Egypt and what it took to get to this point. “Ideology shadows fight to rule the new Egypt”. Politicians such as Nour. .Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. J." Nawara said. who was forced out of the presidential palace Friday by the military and was staying at the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheik. and ensuring access to foreign economies. had been rigged for years. Quick elections would result in a radical Egypt. 2/14/2011. Only by retaining a “big stick” can the United States succeed in advancing its diplomatic priorities. Al Ghad. Increased environmental regulations could cause countries to lessen their focus on international threats of violence. securing vital resources. Montana." said Wayne White.com 7/148 Thursday File friends. senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Stanford University. it is critically important that the United States focus its diplomatic efforts on issues of paramount importance to the nation. secretary general of Nour's liberal party.
The liberal parties say they also want the United States — which sends about $1. The Suez Canal is one of the engineering marvels of the modern world. both want to crack down on corruption and a culture of bribery that shopkeepers. It spawned a radical cell that assassinated Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in 1981.com 8/148 Thursday File as a strict Islamic alternative to Western influences. It will embolden extremists like nothing since the 1979 Islamic Revolution." Makram-Ebeid said. For example. but not a cause for fearful reaction.5 million laborers moved more than 1. Clearly. radical enemy. the U. investors were spooked at even the thought of a disruption in energy production and shipping. an Egyptian and former member of the Brotherhood. That amounts to 2. who were not allowed to organize while the Brotherhood was able to do so in mosques and through its teachers and charities. Allowing the Muslim Brotherhood to gain control of Egypt would result in a closure of the Suez Canal. It’s a prime example of why Europe is watching events in Egypt so intently. On Monday. "You counter (the Brotherhood) by allowing new parties to form without any restriction. Mona Makram-Ebeid. Its strength. This will revolutionize the landscape in the most combustible part of the world. It accounts for 5 to . Of particular concern is oil. Control over the Suez Canal is definitely one of those levers. and place formidable levers of power in their hands. when Cairo was home to Jewish and Christian refugees from Europe. a Coptic Christian and former member of the Egyptian parliament. Middle East Instability. which had been packed with provisions to prevent free elections and opposition parties. The shock waves will be massive. oil jumped to over $100 a barrel. businesses and ordinary Egyptians say has made daily life here difficult. is a result of Mubarak's repression of liberals. On Sunday the Brotherhood got half of what it wanted. http://thetrumpet. collapsing European Economies.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. which is ruling the nation for now. war with Israel. It cuts through 118 miles of Egyptian countryside. February 2. He also said Egyptians should “be prepared for war against Israel. oil price shocks.S. military — should remain in charge of Egypt until a civilian government is running smoothly.5 billion in aid to Egypt each year — to use its influence to ensure Egyptian officers continue reforms. as well as changes to the constitution that would lay the groundwork for elections soon. surrounded in her office by wooden furnishings and framed oil paintings that hark to the early 20th century. Muhammad Ghannem made the provocative statement to an Arabic-language Iranian news network. Though Egypt exports none itself. The Brotherhood's Abdel Fattah says the group wants Egypt's army to quickly pave the way for civilian rule. thus linking Europe with East Africa and Asia. Western optimism notwithstanding. which also traverses Egypt. “Will the Muslim Brotherhood Close the Suez Canal?”." E. Every day. 3 million barrels of oil and fuel products pass through the canal and the Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline.” It was a chilling peek at what might happen once the dust settles from these popular protests sweeping Egypt.0) CJC Almost immediately after angry Egyptians took to the streets last week. Nawara says sweeping out the corrupt members of the regime is a first step toward encouraging foreign investment in Egypt that will lead to jobs.5 percent of global oil production. connecting the Red Sea with the Mediterranean. we got a glimpse at one important reason why. It inspired al-Qaeda founder Osama Bin Laden and his deputy. Egypt's Armed Forces Supreme Council. moderate ally to volatile.com/?q=7928. but the Brotherhood wants investment strategies to abide by Islamic law.0." Makram-Ebeid said. 2011. and all out war. A leading Muslim Brotherhood member said the Suez Canal should be immediately shut down. she predicted.2 billion cubic feet of soil with picks and shovels—to this day it remains a conduit for roughly 8 percent of global seaborne trade. the Muslim Brotherhood will likely end up in power—which means the Middle East’s most populous and influential Arab country is about to lurch from relatively stable. The liberal parties and youth groups that kept the protests going for 20 days have a platform. plans to push for a greatly expanded student exchange program with the West so young Egyptians can learn how to development the economy. The Brotherhood is "a cause for concern. and some of their goals are similar to those that the Brotherhood supports. Ayman Al-Zawahiri. Hilliker – 2/2 (Joel Hilliker Columnist.S. About two thirds of that energy is traveling north toward Europe. Initially completed over 140 years ago—after 1. A sharia-based state would be "totally refused" if put to a referendum in Egypt.6537. Energy Department still classifies it as one of the few World Oil Transit Chokepoints. "They can mobilize the street. Nawara says Egypt's military — which has long had close ties to the U. he said. It was the first time oil hit triple digits since the record spike to $147 two years ago. But the youth can mobilize more. announced that it had dissolved Mubarak's handpicked parliament and suspended the constitution.
"(41) and Ezar Weissman. an organization sure to prove even more aggressive than Nasser was (at one time. the Suez Canal remains very significant strategically. the existence of an arsenal of mass destruction in such an unstable region in turn has serious implications for future arms control and disarmament negotiations. or should any Arab nation fire missiles against Israel. Colonel Gamal Nasser had taken part in a coup against the Egyptian monarchy in 1952 and then overthrown the president two years later.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. On one side would be the Muslim Brotherhood.. Longtime Trumpet readers are well familiar with the end-time prophecy in Daniel 11—set to be fulfilled soon—of a “push” by an Iranian-led.S. One could be forgiven for thinking that Ghannem’s call to close the canal was calculated to panic Europeans. nuclear targeting strategy. France. Israel's current President said "The nuclear issue is gaining momentum(and the) next war will not be conventional. The United Nations. Steinbach.” Remember. Investors are concerned that Egypt’s instability makes ships passing through the canal more susceptible to attack. The canal was the West’s most prominent asset in the Middle East: At the time. Clearly. in Daniel’s prophecy. a ceasefire was imposed. and Should war break out in the Middle East again.S. 2002. It is important to note that. once unthinkable except as a last resort. as a result of trade in the Mediterranean and therefore with Europe. a likelihood Barclays Capital warned of this week. marking its unmistakable loss of status as a great power—and the fulfillment of a biblical prophecy that it would lose control of its sea gates.. which relies heavily on jet fuel.) Israeli nukes aimed at the Russian heartland seriously complicate disarmament and arms control negotiations . On the other side were the canal’s European owners. in a purposeful display of Arab strength. the players would be somewhat different. anti-West government taking over Cairo and shutting the canal down altogether. On one side was an Egyptian leader with a vision of militant pan-Arabism that put him at odds with European colonial powers. And on the other. spy secrets. would be a surging. In what has proven to be a terrible blunder. the United States broke from its British ally and came out firmly against the action. current conditions resound with echoes of that history.htm Meanwhile. " Jonathan Pollard's spying for Israel was to furnish satellite images of Soviet targets and other super sensitive data relating to U. Seymour Hersh warns.org/articles /0203/0331steinbachisraeli. he seized control of the Suez Canal. Britain and Israel responded to Nasser’s provocation by combining forces to invade. Our editor in chief has speculated about the likelihood of oil factoring into this provocation: Iran could well gain control over supplies to such an extent as to be able to drive prices to uncomfortable highs. the links between Iran and Egypt will be strong and deep by that point—so much so that Europe will feel compelled to eliminate them both in a stroke.” Daniel 11:42 tells us). heating oil and other distillates refined in the Middle East and shipped via the canal and pipeline” (emphasis mine). Franco Frattini. in these economically strained.” Italy’s foreign minister. “This in turn could cause Europe to quickly unite into the most powerful economic bloc in the world. told the Wall Street Journal. it violently overthrows Egypt in the process (“and the land of Egypt shall not escape. also dissented. European oil prices have soared—even higher than those in America. an associate professor at an Abu Dhabi energy-research center. would now be a strong probability. a full four fifths of Western Europe’s oil was passing through it. Disrupt these shipments."(42) Russia and before it the Soviet Union has long been a major(if not the major) target of Israeli nukes.” Dalton Garis. And. Nevertheless. Europe has significantly reduced its dependence on Suez. The prospect of a Muslim Brotherhood government gaining control over this asset—punctuated by the explicit call for its closure by a prominent member—makes it easy to imagine a militant Egyptian government again using the canal to provoke a European power. Worse. F.” he wrote in the Trumpet’s December 1994 edition.com 9/148 Thursday File 7 percent of Europe’s oil consumption. delaying delivery times and markedly increasing costs. which it is in our interest to avoid at all costs. beholden to Third World opinion. (43) (Since launching its own satellite in 1988.. when a unified Europe wipes out Iran. The European empire described in biblical prophecy—and presently coalescing. and control of the vital Suez Canal was yielded up to Egypt. though. as the Iraqis did. is the prospect of a radical. This time. the Suez Canal was once before at the heart of a war. It was a massive defeat for Britain in particular. Since that event. it actually tried to assassinate Nasser). and European supply—and global prices—would be “affected tremendously. http://wagingpeace. MIDDLE EAST WAR WILL PRODUCE GLOBAL NUCLEAR CONFLAGRATION. Israel no longer needs U. extremely oil-dependent times. In the end. “This is one of the reasons why Egypt’s stability is fundamental for the economy too. said Monday. and unimaginably ferocious in securing the energy and other resources it needs to fuel itself. Islamist Middle Eastern power (“the king of the south”) of a German-led European empire (“the king of the north”). a nuclear escalation. Already this past week. however. rather than a fading Britain. Oil tankers transporting Middle East oil westward would have to travel the extra 6. In July 1956. These differences would result in a far different outcome than the war in 1956. “People talking about the closure of the Suez Canal are talking about a collapse of the state. In fact. the immediate impact of any interruption would be felt primarily in Europe. It is widely reported that the principal purpose of even the threat of nuclear war. even amid financial troubles—is a voracious economic power. The New York Times reported on the same possibility: “While [oil] prices are set globally.000 miles around Africa. unified Europe. That’s the last thing a continent mired in economic problems wants.
. if the familar pattern(Israel refining its weapons of mass destruction with U." *****Uniqueness***** .for whatever reason. at the very least. if not for all out nuclear war.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 10/148 Cross-X.the deepening Middle East conflict could trigger a world conflagration.S.com Thursday File and. complicity) is not reversed soon. and dramatically lowers the threshold for their actual use.. In the words of Mark Gaffney. the unilateral possession of nuclear weapons by Israel is enormously destabilizing. ".
February 16." .html?iref=allsearch) CJC For Clinton. Even as she managed a reset with Russia.com/2011/POLITICS/02/16/clinton.com Thursday File UQ Ext – A2: Dip Cap Low Clinton efforts have restored credibility to American diplomacy. which has massive undeveloped fields of petroleum and natural gas. http://www. allies in Europe. 2011." said Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg. and deepened relationships with traditional U.S.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 11/148 Cross-X. "That our credibility and leadership were shot. either because we were too unilateral or we weren't dealing with what we needed to deal with. diplomacy?”.sweep/index. no country is too small to partner with the United States. “Can Clinton remake U. Labott – 2/16 (Elise Labott.cnn.the idea that there was an American decline.S. CNN Senior State Department Producer. she also traveled to the tiny Pacific island of Papua New Guinea. "These capital investments helped us deal with what was the biggest problem that we came in facing -. expanded ties with China. That narrative is beginning to fade.
Doha. Striking the even-handed note the military has maintained throughout the crisis. He has been defence minister for more than 20 years with a past rooted firmly in the old guard’s ruling elite. 2011. it praised Mubarak for resigning “in the interests of the nation” and the “martyrs” who died protesting.gulf-times. going. are ready to permit a democracy -. it’s moved into martial law and where it goes is now subject to debate. 11 February.especially since the hitherto banned Islamist Muslim Brotherhood is one of the best organised forces. “Going. however. Mubarak’s veteran defence minister. “Egypt isn’t moving toward democracy.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 12/148 Cross-X. has long seemed resistant to change.” said Jon Alterman of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. Qatar.com Thursday File UQ Ext – A2: Military Control = N/U Mubarak step down just beings a new round of diplomacy with the military to ensure the transition. Gulf Times – 2/11 (Daily Newspaper published by Gulf Publishing & Printing Co. . “This is just the end of the beginning.com/site/topics/article. the higher military council said it would take measures for an interim phase and hoped to realise people’s hopes. http://www.” US officials familiar with the US-sponsored Egyptian military say Tantawi. 75. GONE”. In a statement. over how far the military under Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi.asp? cu_no=2&item_no=415614&version=1&template_id=57&parent_id=56) CJC There was a note of caution in the background.
http://www." Obama said Egypt is going to require help in developing democratic institutions. ." and the issue is to "get ahead of change. 2011. each country has its own traditions. A senior administration official suggested Friday that the opposition should be satisfied with Mubarak's departure and other concessions. A White House aide said: "This is hardly over. "Each country is different.3805635.story? track=rss) CJC The question-and-answer session was Obama's first solo press conference since late December and gave reporters a chance to question the president on economic issues and to more fully probe the president's views on the situation in Egypt and other prodemocracy movements throughout the Arab world. it will happen because people come together." but "there are certain universal principles we adhere to. http://www. He drew a contrast between the demonstrations in Egypt and those in Iran. "We have sent a strong message to allies in the region. lauding Egyptian demonstrators who peacefully "bent the arc of history toward justice included a pointed message for the military leaders who now were in charge. But State U. faces critical test of influence on Egypt”. The administration has been busy making calls to senior Egyptian officers. talks budget at news conference”." But he also Diplomats know the situation is volatile and could easily spin out of control if they lack focus of their influence in Egypt. He would be watching." US must continue to keep the pressure on the Egyptian military to ensure a smooth transition to elections. "The world is changing.com/news/politics/la-pn-news-conference-obama-20110216.A. LA Times – 2/11 (David S." There were no celebrations at the White House.story?track=rss) CJC diplomats also acknowledge that events could still easily spin out of control given Egypt's lack of experience with democracy.S. LA Times – 2/13 (Peter Nicholas. "This opens the door for them to begin a full dialogue. "Real change in these societies is not going to happen because of terrorism. "We are obviously concerned about stability. Los Angeles Times. February 13." Obama said. February 11." the president said. 2011.0.' " Obama also argued that change was an ongoing process.latimes. February 15.%20Times%20-%20Politics%29&utm_source=feedburner) CJC Obama at his most eloquent." Obama said people should have a right to express their opinions in public." he said. “Obama praises Egypt. LA Times – 2/15 (Michael A. “U. "Obviously. Obama posed a plan for United States policy. LA Times Staff Writers. no champagne toasts on the Truman Balcony like the one Obama hosted after Congress passed his healthcare overhaul last year. we don't believe in violence. Cloud and Paul Richter." Obama said in the wake of the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak and the takeover of government by the army.5580994." Noting that a wave of protests has spread across the region. 'Let us look at Egypt's example as opposed to Iran's. for a "transition that is credible in the eyes of the Egyptian people.latimes. there is still a lot of work to be done in Egypt itself.com/news/politics/lafg-egypt-us-20110212. 2011.com/news/politics/la-fgegypt-obama-strategy-20110213. http://www. but so far the country is sending "the right signals. Los Angeles Times Reporters.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 13/148 Cross-X. Memoli and Michael Muskal.5736229. “Obama's strategy was to pressure Mubarak without intruding”.0. and say there are clear limits to Washington's influence on key players in Cairo. which have been stifled by the government. trying to keep the pressure on.latimes. he warned them.0.S.com Thursday File UQ Ext – Focused Diplomacy Egypt still requires US diplomacy and regionally an increased role currently to deal with rising wave of protests to reassure allies. we don't believe in coercion. "America can't dictate.story? page=2&utm_medium=feed&track=rss&utm_campaign=Feed%3A%20latimes%2Fnews %2Fpolitics%20%28L. "What we have seen so far is positive." he said.'' It was once more.
revising the constitution and other laws to make this change irreversible. February 11. The task is difficult because Mubarak brutally suppressed any party that threatened his stranglehold on power.3805635. and preserving that flow — as well as the Egyptian military's longstanding ties with the Pentagon — is likely to be a major goal for the country's new leaders.S. is not without leverage. lifting the emergency law. He drew a link between the rebellion that began Jan. faces critical test of influence on Egypt”. expects the Egyptian generals to dismantle the machinery of a repressive state.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. Cloud and Paul Richter.S. LA Times – 2/11 (David S.com 14/148 Thursday File Department officials warned that political reform will be a "medium term" undertaking." Obama said. warning they would "have to ensure a transition that is credible in the eyes of the Egyptian people. said that the Obama administration was already reaching out to other Middle Eastern allies to warn that they should respond to calls for reform to avoid the same sort of upheaval seen in Egypt. 25 and some of the epochal political movements of the 20th century: Gandhi's nonviolent struggle for India's independence. But even as Obama hailed the triumph of democracy in the Cairo streets. his administration was adjusting to the loss of a bedrock ally in a volatile region.S. “U. Obama appeared to reach out to the military in his White House address.com/news/politics/lafg-egypt-us-20110212. Tom Malinowski. requiring time to develop and nurture institutions that will give the country a stable and inclusive political process. Mubarak's departure threatens to end 30 years of certainty in which American administrations could count on Egypt maintaining its 1979 peace treaty with Israel.'s fight for racial equality in the United States. Los Angeles Times Reporters. as well as cooperating on counter-terrorism efforts. Yet the U. http://www. After days of being buffeted by events. But he reserved most of his praise for the protesters. It provides Egypt with $1.5 billion in aid every year. commending the army for not firing upon the vast crowds protesting Mubarak's continued rule. 2011. requiring Egyptians to now build a democracy almost from scratch. Martin Luther King Jr. the Berlin Wall's crumbling. President Obama moved quickly within hours of Mubarak's departure to try to influence the Egypt that will follow. Washington director for Human Rights Watch.0. Obama made it clear that the U.latimes. US is using the full force and speed of its diplomacy to handle the transition in Egypt. Now it must deal with another daunting task: coaxing the country's new military rulers to deliver genuine democratic reforms they have resisted for decades.story?track=rss) CJC The Obama administration got what it said it wanted when Hosni Mubarak surrendered power. and laying out a clear path to elections that are fair and free. In a seven-minute address from the White House." "That means protecting the rights of Egypt's citizens. .
who can speak authoritatively at a time of rapid staff turnover in the West Wing. It requires “all hands on deck” to manage the situation. She knows all of these players very well.” says Daniel Kurtzer who served as ambassador to Egypt under Bill Clinton and as President George W.” in the words of one former State Department higher-up. and that’s critical at a time when the administration is presented with so few good alternatives. who entered Foggy Bottom without the policy agenda of many of her predecessors. February 2.” adds Kurtzer. Thrush – 2/2 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico. has never occupied such a central role in such an unpredictable situation. 2011. “She’s the obvious choice to adopt this role.” according to a senior administration official.html) CJC Obama. has turned to Clinton in the past for advice and to serve as the public face for the administration’s policies. But Clinton.com/news/stories/0211/48658.politico. “Hillary Clinton plays key role in dance with Hosni Mubarak”.com Thursday File Diplomacy Focus Key Clinton and her diplomacy team are critical to a successful transition. “And she’s one of the only people who could step in. known for relying on a tight circle of foreign policy advisers based in the West Wing and Vice President Joe Biden’s office. http://www. Bush’s ambassador to Israel. But it’s also because the pragmatic Clinton is “one of the few remaining grown-ups. That’s because the administration has never faced a foreign crisis of this magnitude that requires “all hands on deck.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 15/148 Cross-X. “You need someone out there who understands the complexity of this situation.” .
com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military. according to Pentagon spokesmen Geoff Morrell and Navy Captain John Kirby. February 13. which took control of the country Feb.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 16/148 Cross-X. it's unlikely the generals. Military diplomacy with Egypt is critical to ensuring a stable transition.S. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. Military if left to their own devices will not transition to democracy. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. backing. As Gates and Mullen have tried to keep on top of events in Egypt. McManus – 2/13 (Doyle McManus. is going to have to show some results right away.S.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military. he will discuss security issues of mutual concern and reassure both these key partners of the U. 11 and promised a transition to democracy. military’s commitment to that partnership. reporter for Bloomberg News. Lifting the state of emergency that’s been in effect for 30 years and given power to security forces would “send a powerful signal throughout the society. 2011.S. Feb 13. they’ve also sought to reassure allies and partners in the region of U.com Thursday File UQ Ext – Military Diplomacy Dealing with the Egyptian crisis is requiring huge amounts of military diplomatic capital. http://www. “Public Praise. The connections may be critical in the coming weeks and months as Egypt’s Supreme Council of the Armed Forces directs a process toward elections and democratic rule.column) CJC Left to their own devices. after President Hosni Mubarak ceded his powers to it Feb. The inevitable messiness of the ensuing process will present hard choices for the . military official said on condition of anonymity. 2011. reporter for Bloomberg News.0. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. Decades of ties. International Atomic Energy Agency who has offered himself as a transitional leader. http://www. Washington columnist for the Los Angeles Times. “Mission not yet accomplished”. Diplomacy will require continued aid.” he said. officials met with Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak at the White House this week. for its part.html) CJC “The military. “In both countries. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. said the official. The calls aren’t intended to pressure the Egyptian military to do anything specific. who provided few details on the substance of the conversations. “Public Praise. Gates and other top U. a former ambassador to Egypt who is a lecturer at Princeton University. Mullen will attend a ceremony marking the end of Israeli Lieutenant General Gabi Ashkenazi’s term as chief of staff. 11. have made regular telephone calls to their counterparts.3212459. an end to the repressive state of emergency and new elections. energy and patience. a U.” said Daniel Kurtzer. President Barack Obama’s top military adviser.S. has established relationships between the two forces and made pressure unnecessary so far.com/news/opinion/commentary/laoe-mcmanus-column-egypt-20110213.bloomberg.N. including training of Egyptian officers at elite U.bloomberg.S.latimes. though they've promised constitutional changes. will push for a swift transition to a full and free democracy. http://www. the former chief of the U.S. Feb 13.html) CJC Pentagon officials are using public praise and private phone calls to help the Obama administration maintain connections and influence with the Egyptian military. Mohamed ElBaradei. military schools. has reported on national and international issues from Washington for more than 25 years. But Egypt's next step is far from certain. He is also calling for the drafting of a wholly new constitution and elections within a year.” Kirby said. 2011. U. and Mullen headed to Jordan and Israel to meet with senior civilian and military leaders there yesterday and today. who wasn’t authorized to speak publicly on the calls. Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Admiral Mike Mullen. Our success relies on our military diplomacy to reassure allies that we have their back. has proposed a three-man "presidential council" with only one of the seats reserved for the military.
And. advise and aid countries that are moving toward democracy in the world's most dangerous region. Feb 13.S. The insurgencies in Egypt and Tunisia have presented the United States with an extraordinary opportunity: a chance to nudge. to add the democracy-friendly modifier "genuine. Bush. are in tension. "We stand ready to provide whatever assistance is necessary.S. John on CNN’s “State of the Union” yesterday .S government will “play a role of holding the military’s feet to the fire” to ensure it makes democratic reforms. Sen.bloomberg. he added. it also want to maintain Egypt's stability. Obama made a start on that process with his when he praised Egypt's military for its role as "caretaker to the state" but pointedly defined its mission now as guaranteeing a real transition. political parties have sought for decades. Influence over the military is critical to ensure that transition is stable. Rand Paul (R-Ky. It's a pity that such an opportunity has arrived when we seem to be short of all three. in the House has already proposed deep cuts in foreign aid. as Mubarak was. Others would cut Egypt but spare Israel. the first U.S. Anwar Sadat. its close military relationship with the U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. said that the U. http://www. The new Republican majority statement Friday.S. will require money." he said. while not contradictory.html) CJC Negroponte. aid — and thus U.S. such as revising the constitution and enabling multiple political parties. it may prove difficult to convince Egypt's democrats that the United States was on their side all along." Obama said. leverage — at the same time.com 17/148 Thursday File Obama administration too." and why Obama felt it necessary. has proposed eliminating foreign aid entirely.S. "They must know that they will continue to have a friend in the United States of America. which leaders of both U. Some of those same House Republicans pressed the State Department last week to bar the Muslim Brotherhood from playing any role in a new Egyptian government. reporter for Bloomberg News. as late as Thursday." he said. Taking advantage of that opening. President Obama said last week that he hoped Egypt's democratization would be both "orderly and genuine. including for both Egypt and Israel. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. a move that wouldn't make the U. energy and patience.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military.).S. director of national intelligence under President George W. the leader of the Senate's new "tea party" caucus. "Nothing less than genuine democracy will carry the day. officials used most often over the last 18 days was "orderly. and its peace with Israel. But after more than 30 years of support for the military governments of Mubarak and his predecessor. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. the Facebook insurgents in Tahrir Square or even the Muslim Brotherhood — won't be as strongly pro-U. The administration wants more from Egypt than just democracy. “Public Praise. including the programs that would help Egyptian democracy. They didn't explain how to do that while reducing U.S. 2011. That's why the word U." They administration is understandably concerned that Egypt's next political leaders — whether they turn out to be the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. the United States will help. But that was a promise that may be difficult to keep. popular in Tahrir Square." He must know that those two goals.
taxpayer basically funds the Egyptian military and has done so for many years. "The U.S.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20110211/egypttransition-us-role-110211/20110211/?hub=WinnipegHome) CJC Basham." Patrick . in part because of American influence. director of the Washington-based Democracy Institute. 11 2011. "Whatever the motivations for the Egyptian military's move against Mubarak – clearly they told him he had to go – U. Feb. “Obama pledges to help Egypt transition to democracy”. C-TV News – 2/11 (CTV. The Egyptian military certainly has good relations with the United States. but is very much aware that it is the United States that is paying the bill that affords them the prestige and the influence in Egyptian politics that they enjoy.ctv. influence played no small part." he said. told CTV News Channel that the Egyptian military finally pushed the president out. It forced them to push out Mubarak. http://winnipeg.com Thursday File UQ Ext – US Has Influence Over Military US has influence over the military.S.ca News Staff-Canada.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 18/148 Cross-X.
It's not remotely surprising that demonstrators keep returning to Tahrir Square after Mubarak's resignation. Feb. .com Thursday File UQ Ext – Timeframe – Next Few Months Key Next few months are critical to ensure that Egypt does not collapse. not just to celebrate but to demand more: "We won't leave because we have to make sure this country is set on the right path. The dissatisfaction with the February revolution of 1917 led to the Bolshevik coup d'etat in October of that year. Disaster and dictatorship are not inevitable. the essence of crowd euphoria is the feeling that one is part of something greater than oneself. Online activism is not a substitute for real activism. By whatever means possible. 14. Disappointment in the slow pace of post-revolutionary change cannot be avoided. “The Roar of the Crowd”. soldiers clashed with demonstrators who were reluctant to go home.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 19/148 Cross-X. Now the country's leaders must help channel all that enthusiasm into institutional change. and then slumping down again in front of Facebook or Al Jazeera. Her most recent book is Gulag: A History. the months following a revolution can therefore be more dangerous than the revolution itself. http://www. planning an election campaign. but if Egypt is to avoid either a coup d'etat or a return to mob rule." declared one protester. and the army even threatened to arrest those who refused to leave. Applebaum – 2/14 (Anne Applebaum is a Washington Post and Slate columnist. not next month or next year but right now. 2011. The satisfaction one receives from Twitter is not the same satisfaction one receives from spending hours in a room with a group of people. the mob kept resurrecting itself in the years following 1789 (a tradition that continues into the present). described as unemployed.slate. In France.com/id/2285041/?from=rss) CJC Coming down from the high of a crowd experience and returning to the humdrum ordinariness of an individual life can never be easy. staring at the wall. especially if one has been part of a crowd for almost three weeks. A letdown is inevitable. the soldiers now ruling the country will have to do more than send everyone home. the army should encourage the formation of political parties. Historically. On Sunday and Monday. the creation of citizens' committees. the building of neighborhood watch groups and clean-up brigades—anything to prevent those unemployed men in Tahrir Square from going home. As Le Bon understood.
which has observed 82 elections in 34 countries.htm) CJC Pipes. The group's grass-roots network is a source of power that liberals may have a hard time countering. sustain these agreements. 2011. especially to Egypt's large lower class.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 20/148 Cross-X. with an implementation strategy and timetable. White said. especially if not given enough time to organize. http://www. “Two vital steps on path to democracy in Egypt”. editor of the Middle East Forum. “Ideology shadows fight to rule the new Egypt”. says if radical Islamists come to power. hospitals and aid programs for the poor. In Iran.cnn. K2 Election Timing Continued focused diplomacy is critical to ensure credible elections.com/2011/OPINION/02/15/stremlau." because leaders reject democratic laws that run counter to Islamic texts — but Islamists are willing to use elections to gain power. *****Links***** . more importantly. Elections now mean they gain control because they are already well organized. The Islamist movement is "inherently anti-democratic. that is why timing is everything.egypt. And it has welcomed the growing role of domestic and international nongovernmental organizations willing and able to support the process. to lend their support. Stremlau – 2/16 (John Stremlau is vice president for peace programs at the nonprofit Carter Center.usatoday.com Thursday File UQ Ext – Dip. Pipes said. 2/14/2011. Reporter at USA TODAY. February 16. Radicals will use elections to gain power. they will foment a revolution along the lines of Iran's in 1979. http://www. while facilitating as many international partners as possible. The movement may already be the bestorganized opposition group because of a network of charities. the ruling Islamists' belief in God's sovereignty trumps political participation by the masses. It has engaged in the hard work of quiet diplomacy to encourage and. Dorell – 2/14 (Oren Dorell.com/news/world/2011-02-14-1Aegypt14_CV_N. including regional organizations and the United Nations.democracy/) CJC The Obama administration has shown a consistent preference for inclusive agreements among all significant factions on basic election principles. Egypt's old Wafd and newer liberal and Daniel reform parties "may have a tough slog" reaching out.
That will take time as well as diplomatic dexterity. And down the road. “Can Clinton remake U. Clinton is said to have been in a "war-room mentality. "She feels the overwhelming weight of it. for Clinton. Progress in creating a credible Afghan government and sustainable economy has also been an uphill battle.sweep/index. she wants to stay true to the themes of political. It will largely fall to Clinton to advance the strategy that she and Holbrooke envisioned. director of policy planning and deputy chief of staff. The timing of withdraw would undermine near term focus on Egypt. This link is a timing issue. "She sees this as one of the most significant strategic projects of the Obama presidency. she and the State Department will assume full responsibility for U.cnn.S.S. "She respects what the people had to do to go out in (Tahrir Square).com/2011/POLITICS/02/16/clinton. Labott – 2/16 (Elise Labott. troops come home at the end of the year. which has quickly become the first major foreign policy crisis for the Obama administration. Clinton will also need to work closely with allies about increasing pressure on Iran over its nuclear program.com Thursday File A2: Link Turns: Timing – (A Must Read) Other issues will move forward diplomatically. She is mindful of regional stability and wants to reassure other Middle East governments that the U.S. the chapter on Egypt's march toward democracy is far from complete. Rolling up her sleeves Yet no issue will likely demand more of Clinton's time in the near future than the political upheaval in Egypt. It's a personal challenge that speaks to the dilemma she has faced since becoming secretary of state. it is really the beginning. marrying the fragile and reversible military gains with a political process that includes international diplomacy." said Jake Sullivan. Their link turns do not assume the refocusing to the Egypt crisis.S. February 16. 2011. In addition to moving forward with engaging North Korea in the coming months." Mills said. Clinton will be doing a lot more juggling. yearnings which were ignited in Tunisia. as a long list of foreign policy issues becomes the province of the State Department." But Clinton knows the push for democracy is fraught with risk. While Mubarak has left the political scene. http://www. and political reconciliation among the Taliban and other militant groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan. interests and security in a region that is going through real transformation. involvement in Iraq. "The secretary is going to roll up her sleeves. spread like wildfire to Cairo and which are now permeating throughout the region -.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 21/148 Cross-X. regional involvement." ." talking to European and Arab allies about how the U. particularly when it comes to foreign aid. with Karzai an unreliable partner. Since Mubarak stepped down. And she must save the stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace talks from becoming a permanent casualty of recent events.html?iref=allsearch) CJC If the first six weeks of 2011 are any indicator. On one hand. In fact. In the coming weeks Clinton will have to defend her smart power efforts before Republicans in Congress intent on taking an ax to President Obama's budget. can nurture and facilitate a military-led transition. economic and social reforms and respect for human rights that she pressed for in Qatar.S. and she would like to support the president in advancing American values. CNN Senior State Department Producer. when the impact is triggered in the short term. diplomacy?”. will not abandon important and longtime allies. when the remainder of U. but NO issue will currently take a back seat to our effort in Egypt in the near future.issues which remain close to her heart. The long-term is irrelevant.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 22/148 Cross-X. include the possibility of instability in other countries. diplomats.com/news/stories/0211/48700.S. The challenges. (they) remind us all of how crucial it is to have top-notch leadership on the ground.com Thursday File 2NC Link Magnifier . ambassadors that the current crisis was part of a “tough road ahead” for U.” Clinton. Thrush – 2/2 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico. http://www. “As we see. more WikiLeaks revelations and pressure from Congress to cut the State Department’s budget. warned a gathering of U.politico. who has become the administration’s public face during the crisis. They need all of the focus they have to deal with the Egyptian crisis. with what’s going on today.S.S. some of which we are only beginning to understand. 2011. recent events in Egypt and certainly in that broader region.html) CJC As Obama kept close tabs on the deepening crisis. diplomats the pitched street battles erupting in Cairo and elsewhere have pushed the country into “uncharted territory.” she added. “There are too many forces at work.Focus US Diplomats are at the breaking point and barely able to keep up with the current situations on their plates. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned U.” . And how quickly that ground can shift under our feet. February 2. “Obama huddles with aides on Egypt”. she said.
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2NC Link Magnifier – Perception
US credibility for diplomacy is hanging by a thread in the Middle East. Perception of US backing away again would crush any influence that we have. CBS News – 2/11 (Ken Millstone, Staff Reporter; “Diplomat: Egypt Dislikes Suleiman's "Slimy Background"; February 11, 2011; http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20031554503544.html) CJC Ambassador Edward Peck, a career diplomat who served in Egypt and Tunisia, said that Suleiman
in many ways takes an even harsher and more authoritarian view of power than Mubarak. "He's been involved in a number of things that the people of Egypt do not like," including being the CIA's point man for the rendition and torture of terror suspects in Egypt, Peck said. He said Suleiman has "kind of a slimy background." Mubarak ceded power not to Suleiman but to the Egyptian armed forces and it is not clear what Suleiman's eventual role will be, if any. Still, Suleiman is a former military and intelligence officer with close ties to the military power structure. He "is always going to be a little trickle of saliva" that could be slurped back up into power at any time, Peck said. With or without Suleiman, a transition to democracy is no certainty, Peck
"It just takes one or two generals to say, 'Hey I kind of like being in charge.' That's happened before." Peck suggested that the U.S. has strained its credibility with other Arab world leaders by its somewhat erratic response to the events in Egypt - seemingly shifting allegiance to whatever actor seemed to be in the lead. "We have a just a tattered thread in that part of the world of the respect and reliability that we used to think we enjoyed on a regular basis," Peck said.
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2NC Aid Link Magnifier
(_) Aid Package Link: A. And, Independently of influence over the Egyptian military, the US is negotiating an international aid package that would be critical to ensuring a smooth transition because the protests have gutted its economy. Richter – 2/14 (Paul Richter, Tribune Washington Bureau Reporter; “Obama administration seeks emergency financial package for Egypt”; Feb. 14, 2011; http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2011/02/14/1867987/obama-administration-seeksemergency.html) CJC Amid calls in Washington for sharp cuts in foreign aid, the Obama administration is seeking an emergency financial package for Egypt, fearing that further strains on its economy could thwart Cairo's fledgling reform effort almost before it begins. U.S. officials have been working international partners to seek pledges for a package, probably worth several hundred million dollars, as well as money to help build political parties and other democratic institutions, say U.S. and foreign diplomats. Public anxiety over Egypt's struggling economy, including high unemployment and rising prices, was one of the key drivers of an 18-day uprising that toppled former President Hosni Mubarak, who resigned on Friday. Now that Mubarak is gone, analysts say Egyptians may be overly optimistic in expecting rapid economic improvements. Michele Dunne, a Mideast specialist who has advised the Obama administration on Egypt in recent weeks, said the economy is "one of the greatest vulnerabilities for a country that's in a transition like this." The Egyptian finance ministry has estimated that the unrest cost the economy about $310 million a
WASHINGTON day, and some private analysts have estimated that investors have been withdrawing investment at a rate of about $1 billion a day. Annual economic growth of 5 percent was predicted for Egypt before the demonstrations; now the consensus is closer to 1 percent. Dunne, now with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said if Egyptians have unreasonable
expectations about economic opportunities and instead conditions worsen, "it could really sour relations between people" and the transitional government. U.S. officials, who have been consulting widely on Egypt in recent days, declined to discuss their aid goals in details, saying they are in the early stages of discussions. They said they expect international development banks may also play a part in the aid.
B. Economic aid package to Eygpt would give positive light to the US with the Egyptian population, undercutting Muslim Brotherhood influence and message they would use to gain control. Bryen – 2/11 (Shoshana Bryen is senior director for security policy at The Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs in Washington; “Egypt needs more U.S. aid, not less”; 2/11/11; http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0211/49384.html) CJC Two factors may force the Administration to reconsider the size and scope of the aid. First is the attitude of the Egyptian people toward the United States. Though there has been little overt antiAmericanism in the demonstrations, Egyptians are acutely aware that U.S. aid largely flows to the military — with little benefit to them. The Muslim Brotherhood, with its network of religious schools and social programs, has capitalized on the difference between U.S. military aid and religiously inspired social services. It is not surprising that a recent Pew survey shows Egyptians preferring Islamic
government to “those who would modernize the country,” by 59 to 27 percent, and attitudes toward Americans running nearly 4:1 negative. The demonstrations and looting during the protests have wreaked havoc on the
Egyptian economy and capital is expected to flow out as soon as the banks reopen. The answer to “how much” may be sent abroad no one knows, but estimates run into the hundreds of millions at a minimum. Emergency food and economic stabilization aid from America could help average Egyptians see the United States as a benefactor and remove one anti-American prop from the Muslim Brotherhood and from Iran. Second is what the Egyptian military has acquired over the years.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.com 25/148 Thursday File The U.S. permitted Egypt to buy systems that directly threaten Israel – Harpoon Block II anti-ship missiles, for example – with little opposition from Israel or its friends in Congress because of Mubarak’s commitment to the peace treaty. Should the Muslim Brotherhood take a commanding position in a multi-party interim government, an implacable enemy of both Israel and the United States will have at least some say in the use of those military assets. Elsewhere in
the region, Hezbollah never won a majority in any Lebanese election, but imposes its will on the Lebanese government by threat of force — and now has a say in the operation of the U.S.-supported Lebanese Armed Forces. In a similar situation,
Washington would have no choice but to suspend military aid and cooperation with Egypt — with the loss of benefits to the United States that implies.
perhaps through loans by the European Investment Bank. a spokeswoman for Lady Catherine Ashton. "I think they'll feel this cause is worth it. trying to work out a common position on how to encourage democratic change in Egypt.5 billion per year. most of it going to the Egyptian military.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 26/148 Cross-X. R-Ohio. an EU international finance arm. Continued diplomacy is critical to building international support for the aid package. currently gives Egypt about $1. Feb." said Stephen McInerney. .com Thursday File Ext – Aid Link: A2 Aid Cuts Now Aid package will pass in the US despite calls for cuts in the Aid budget. “Obama administration seeks emergency financial package for Egypt”.com/2011/02/14/1867987/obama-administration-seeksemergency. said the EU is considering the possibility of aid.bellinghamherald. Tribune Washington Bureau Reporter. The Obama administration is trying to prevent Republicans from imposing steep cuts on foreign aid. executive director of the Project on Middle East Democracy. statement last weekend.S." Clinton said. and some analysts predict there will be bipartisan support for at least some increase in Egypt's aid. must promote stability in countries such as Egypt or "we will pay a higher price later in crises that are allowed to simmer and boil over into conflicts.S. http://www." The U." The aid discussions have come at a time when the administration has been reaching out to allies in the Middle East. in a said the United States was committed to offering aid that was needed by Egypt "to pursue a credible and orderly transition to democracy. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton met with House Speaker John Boehner. Yet the overthrow of Mubarak has been welcomed by Democrats and Republicans. Europe and elsewhere. 14. it has bipartisan support. 2011. who are already struggling with severe austerity budgets. President Barack Obama. the European Union's foreign affairs chief. including by working with international partners to provide financial support. Maja Kocijancic. The push for more aid comes at a difficult time for the United States and many allies. Richter – 2/14 (Paul Richter. they will chart a different course. on Monday and expressed her concern about proposed reductions for the State Department and aid programs. Clinton said she hopes that as Congress considers "the national security and economic consequences of these cuts.html) CJC The U.
as labor strikes continued and school openings were delayed.com/article/SB10001424052748703373404576148073209074728. " Treasury Calls for Scrutiny of Egypt ".com Thursday File Ext – Aid Link: Econ Spark Instability Egypt economic issues continued would spark another wave of instability. according to MENA. the official Egyptian state news agency. Strikes could add to mounting economic woes. The labor crisis has been the most formidable challenge for the country's new military leaders and threatens to pierce a fragile calm that has prevailed since political protests ended Friday after nearly three weeks. http://india. Meanwhile.html) Egypt's new military rulers faced growing hurdles in their efforts to restore normalcy to the country. Egypt's stock exchange again delayed its opening.wsj. . 2/17/11.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 27/148 Cross-X. as employees protest poor wages and demand that bank leaders be prosecuted for alleged corruption. WSJ 2/17 (Jay Solomon. Banks said they won't reopen until Sunday. Matt Bradley. pushing it to Monday.
org/Research/Commentary/2009/06/The-importance-of-hard-power] MGM The problem here is not merely an overconfidence in the process of "talking" and trying to achieve "mutual understanding" . coerce belligerent states. our leaders will lose crucial diplomatic clout. An ally's reliance on U.com Thursday File 2NC Links – Plan Kills Coercive Diplomacy Obama needs to strengthen the military – the perception of declining commitments kills our diplomatic influence. Mr.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 28/148 Cross-X. explicit or implicit. Senior Executive Service and principal director. Chiu & Dworken.S.“The Importance of Hard Power”. Recently. Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of defense for Strategy. though only indirectly related to presence. when need be. The threat. Plans. Holmes." But since becoming president he has done little to demonstrate an actual commitment to forging a policy that combines America's military power with diplomatic strategies. when negotiating trade policy and burden-sharing with Japan. and Force Development AND **member of the Center for Naval Analyses assigned to III Marine Expeditionary Force. These are serious matters. Center for Naval Analysis. Rather. The ability of the United States to reassure friends. The United States can succeed in advancing its priorities by diplomatic means only so long as it retains a "big stick.heritage. and defeat enemies does not rest on the strength of our political leaders' commitment to diplomacy.. Australia released a defense white paper concerned primarily with the potential decline of U. http://www. it is about the interaction and sometimes clash of hardened interests and ideologies. For America to be an effective leader and arbiter of the international order. it must be willing to maintain a world-class military. Obama has argued that America must "combine military power with strengthened diplomacy. and you don't take them seriously by wishing away the necessity. on average. Ph. Office of the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Strategy. Mr. This is already on display in the western Pacific Ocean. presence to deter a threat and the positive effects of assurance derived from deterrence can be used in diplomatic negotiations through linking the topic of negotiations to the continuation of that presence. military primacy and its implications for Australian security and stability in the Asia-Pacific. where America's ability to hedge against the growing ambitions of a rising China is being called into question by some of our key Asian allies.need to know they can count on the U. Unfortunately. strategy. to intervene on their behalf any time." Decrease in US military presence directly trades-off with diplomatic influence. These developments are anything but reassuring. Military Presence in the Asian-Pacific Region”. It's this connection of hard to soft power that Mr.S. That will require hard power. VP for Foreign and Defense Policy Studies and Director of the David Institute for International Studies at the Heritage Foundation. deter competitors.8 The third . In what is becoming a signature trait of saying one thing and doing another. 6-12. a link exists between reform in the PRC and the U. of the withdrawal of forces is present. Obama appears not to understand. That requires resources: spending. not just soft.S. The next British leader . 2009 [Kim." Only by building a full-spectrum military force can America reassure its many friends and allies and count on their future support. of using the hard power of force to settle things. anywhere it has to. “The Political Effects of U. Obama's next proposed defense budget and Secretary of defense Robert M.S. 1991 [Daniel and Jonathan. military relationship (technology transfers and port visits) with that country. Similarly.S.and the rest of our allies . If our country allows its hard power to wane. no less than 4 percent of the nation's gross domestic product on defense.d. pg.as if diplomacy were merely about communications and eliminating hurt feelings. it rests on the foundation of a powerful military. diplomatic words murmured whilst strolling serenely along "Obama Beach. for example. as well as in talks on trade policy and political reform in the ROK. 5]MGM political effect of presence is that it augments diplomatic influence. April. Gates' vision for "rebalancing" the military are drastically disconnected from the broad range of strategic priorities that a superpower like the United States must influence and achieve.
April. “The Political Effects of U. Office of the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Strategy. Senior Executive Service and principal director.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 29/148 Cross-X. making the leverage in negotiations slim. 23] MGM Note: This is a footnote explaining diplomatic presence and US military presence 8. There is a severe limitation to this effect. Chiu & Dworken.S. Center for Naval Analysis. Military Presence in the Asian-Pacific Region”. Plans. strategy. and Force Development AND **member of the Center for Naval Analyses assigned to III Marine Expeditionary Force. Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of defense for Strategy. 1991 [Daniel and Jonathan.S. at best.com Thursday File Pulling out when threats are high wrecks our influence. When the perceived threats decline. presence. pg. so does the value of U. .
aspx] An Ambitious Concept When historians look back on the Defense Department’s biggest undertakings during its first six decades of existence. 2009 (Kim Holmes. the fielding of powerful and complex weapons systems. These are national commitments. Korea. Mr.com/thf_media/2009/pdf/sr0052. they will of course cite the prosecution of wars both hot and cold. resident in allied populations in more than fifty countries by latest count. or reconfiguration of an organizational empire that includes well over two million soldiers and civilians.” Chapter 3: Politics and Diplomacy of the Global Defense Posture Review. Holmes.L. Reducing military presence prompts State Department intervention – focuses diplomatic efforts on minimizing effects of the aff. 2006 [Lincoln.usnwc. the Philippines.com Thursday File Link – General Decreasing military deployments kills diplomatic influence.S. it rests on the foundation of a powerful military. streamlining. Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs (1991-92).Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 30/148 Cross-X. This is already on display in the western Pacific Ocean. armed forces standing the watch in almost every latitude and time zone has calmed regional rivalries and dissuaded armed escalations for sixty years. He graduated from Harvard College and received a M. A global posture realignment that involves moving large numbers of those sentries and their weapons inevitably begs the most urgent of security questions. military primacy and the implications that this decline would have for Australian security and stability in the Asia–Pacific. and the sight of U. VP for Foreign and Defense Policy Studies and Director of the David Institute for International Studies at the Heritage Foundation. Former US Special Envoy for Man-Portable Air Defense Systems Threat Reduction.edu/Publications/Naval-War-CollegePress/Newport-Papers/Documents/26-pdf. and bilateral security treaties with Japan.S. Australia released a defense White Paper that is concerned primarily with the potential decline of U. that America is committed—via the North Atlantic Treaty. Bloomfield previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (1992-93). and Australia— to come to their defense in extremis. assets. Ph. “Sustaining American Leadership with Military Power”. To think otherwise would be to overlook the belief. and defeat enemies does not rest on the strength of our political leaders’ commitment to diplomacy. and Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs from 2001-2005. this massive exercise in managerial housekeeping by the secretary of defense cannot be viewed exclusively as one cabinet executive’s effort to make more productive use of the people. the Rio Treaty.D.S. and an annual budget now surpassing $400 billion. and the promulgation of defense and security strategies to prepare for and deter threats to the national interest. excites foreign . from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs (1988-89) among other policy positions in the Defense Department dating to 1981. approximately five thousand facilities spread all over the country and the world.d. http://s3. deter competitors.A. Only by building a full-spectrum military force can America reassure its many friends and allies and count on their future support.amazonaws. The ability of the United States to reassure friends. At the same time. this initiative is inescapably. and funding allotted to his department. indeed overwhelmingly. political in terms of its effect on the rest of the world. Recently. Only by retaining a “big stick” can the United States succeed in advancing its diplomatic priorities. coerce belligerent states.. solemnly made. For all the calculations of greater efficiency and utility that commend the idea of reconfiguring America’s global military footprint.pdf) The consequences of hard-power atrophy will be a direct deterioration of America’s diplomatic clout. where America’s ability to hedge against the growing ambitions of a rising China is being called into question by some of our key Asian allies. Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century. “Reposturing the Force: U. Rarely to be found among these major tasks will be any large-scale updating. These developments are anything but reassuring. Bloomfield. 6-1-2009. The Global Defense Posture Review (GDPR) is such an undertaking. http://www. Thailand.
S. The foreign press has focused on troops scheduled to be pulled back to U. would inevitably make their voices heard before the Department of Defense’s new scheme based on geographic convenience and logistical efficiency could supplant longstanding basing patterns in foreign localities.S.usnwc.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. certainly none of his predecessors seriously attempted it. air. He graduated from Harvard College and received a M. One could well imagine the Pentagon’s potential misgivings about placing this hugely ambitious venture at the mercy of other departments.edu/Publications/Naval-War-CollegePress/Newport-Papers/Documents/26-pdf. That he did it during wartime is extraordinary. directly to the point of engagement.L. “Reposturing the Force: U. if not in monetary terms certainly in the ability of a finite force structure to deliver the maximum military benefit through the greater efficiencies and capabilities of the new global posture. their facilities.D. and land routes from one region to the next. indeed opposition. and the allied governments themselves. never mind foreign policy bureaucrats. . There remains a need for allies. and their support structure should be physically positioned according to the logic of global geography is very appealing. and it embodied major foreign policy equities.com 31/148 Thursday File anxieties in many quarters.S. a well-executed streamlining of the U. an efficiently designed. there were varying perceptions about whether the advertised merits of particular changes under the Global Defense Posture Review would indeed redound to the long-term security benefit of the United States. and capabilities to fulfill those commitments. military force units.S. 2006 [Lincoln.” Chapter 3: Politics and Diplomacy of the Global Defense Posture Review. and officials need to be not simply told but persuaded that America’s commitments to them. braving the predictable resistance of settled constituencies from one end of the globe to the other. On the other hand. even when the nature and location of the crisis had not been foreseen. global defense posture could profit the nation’s security. without overly taxing the system. and Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs from 2001-2005. redesign. globally managed force posture would optimize the flow of combat power along sea. by their manner. there were indeed some in the State Department who wanted nothing more than for the initiative to go away and who feared damage to alliances if it went forward. Bloomfield. The Department of State. his determination to rethink. Former US Special Envoy for Man-Portable Air Defense Systems Threat Reduction.S. Rumsfeld took on this monumental management task. might aggravate rather than defuse foreign anxieties were also not entirely misplaced. particularly in Asia. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. Big Change. European and Asian foreign-policy experts. Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century. depending on how the matter is handled. Of all of Donald Rumsfeld’s actions during his headline-filled second tenure as secretary of defense. The plan requires significant diplomatic resources to reassure allies. military’s posture at home and abroad according to a rational design reflecting contemporary security conditions should stand as a positive mark in his legacy. forces and the state of America’s diplomatic relations with them. Over the long term. An Ambitious Concept The idea that U. of perturbing the very stability that America’s global military presence is meant to ensure.S. The concern was not imaginary. and reposition the U. to have a clear and compelling vision of how the new global defense posture—embracing U. the decision to embark on a global realignment was the president’s to make. Conceptually. In at least one country DoD doggedly sought to announce and implement a drawdown of military assets against that ally’s wishes and with an evident relish that required diplomatic damage control and led the president to withhold to himself the withdrawal decision.S.A. Bloomfield previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (1992-93). bases or consolidated in other locales. concerns in the State Department that some Department of Defense (DoD) officials. policy bureaucracy as a whole. Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs (1991-92). whose reaction to any disturbance of the diplomatic status quo might be expected to be one of resistance to change. and therefore runs the risk.aspx] a major change in defense doctrine and practice requires a significant public diplomacy effort if it is to be accepted abroad.S. Big Decision: Getting to “Yes” What with the profound implications of a posture change for allied countries hosting U. are no longer usefully measured by numbers of troops. and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs (1988-89) among other policy positions in the Defense Department dating to 1981. their equipment. Mr. That Mr. forces outside Still. is noteworthy. journalists. such concerns were not limited to experienced regional specialists in the State Department. even to discussing prospective force reductions with allied countries. Within the U. http://www. Such a concept would best allow future presidents to position viable military options to employ anywhere in response to a sudden danger on the shortest of notice.
emphasizing the need to move past a World War II–era basing structure. and Singapore. the administration found itself in consensus that the GDPR was timely. all eyes turned to the secretary of state. Secretaries Powell and Rumsfeld launched diplomatic consultations on the GDPR at the December 2003 NATO ministerial meetings. articulated his concept. and asked his aides to brief the rationale for this transformational initiative. and Tokyo . the United States will intensify our consultations with the Congress and our friends. that in some locations— including German facilities under his command in the 1980s—the bases dated all the way back to the Franco-Prussian War. In March 2004 Under Secretary Feith led a delegation (including the author) that briefed this initiative in Beijing. deadpan. This was followed within days by a joint appearance at the North Atlantic Council by Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Marc Grossman and Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Douglas Feith.L. When the principals finally engaged at the White House.edu/Publications/Naval-War-CollegePress/Newport-Papers/Documents/26-pdf. Mr. which said in part: “Beginning today. there was also a temptation. Secretary Powell said he thought the briefing had misstated the facts about European bases being obsolete because of their relevance to World War II. Specific force posture changes would require presidential approval at a later stage. http://www. and silence pervaded the room. with the DoD worldwide realignment plan finally ready for top-level interagency consideration.usnwc.A.” and consultations were to be integral to his decision process.aspx] Since this large. Major allies Japan and Korea. however. Beijing. while the author made a side trip to Manila for the same purpose. none of the recommended changes in overseas American presence was yet decided. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. this review was “ongoing. among other advances. High-level administration visitors to Asian capitals. From the president’s perspective. to ask “Why now?” and put it off for another day. “Reposturing the Force: U. Bloomfield previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (1992-93). difficult project was not driven by exigencies of current military operations. He graduated from Harvard College and received a M. and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs (1988-89) among other policy positions in the Defense Department dating to 1981. and partners overseas on our ongoing review of our overseas force posture. and Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs from 2001-2005. By mid2003.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. By the fall of 2003. His point was effectively made—of course we needed to update and rationalize our force posture. mobility. Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs (1991-92). It must not be a fait accompli imposed on allies from Washington. Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century. A few hearts stopped. backed by respective interagency delegations. who approved it to proceed to public rollout and consultation with other governments. Bloomfield.S. Former US Special Envoy for Man-Portable Air Defense Systems Threat Reduction. following which these two officials. split up and barnstormed a total of twelve European capitals.D. Rolling Out the Initiative On 25 November 2003. Many in Congress. one that won quick endorsement from DoD and the interagency realm—that this initiative had to be conducted in full consultation with affected governments around the world. The secretary continued. there was no requirement for a special briefing to either. which developed a final list of recommended domestic base closures during 2005. understandably fearful of losing home-district bases under BRAC. were of course part of the GDPR picture. as the host governments in each case were deeply involved in discussions about potential adjustments. With that pithy intervention by Secretary Powell. had told the administration not to start that process until it had first scrubbed the overseas basing system for other ways to streamline the global footprint. Secretary of State Colin Powell understood DoD’s concern that the initiative could be subjected to death by a thousand cuts. Canberra. Empirical proof. time was running short if GDPR decisions were to be in hand for the BRAC analytical work that was to commence in early 2004. comprehensive posture reviews on a bilateral basis. already undergoing very careful. worthy. and deserving of priority support subject to the president’s approval. allies.” The words were carefully chosen.com 32/148 Thursday File as well as within their borders—will ensure their security as before. such as Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage. who visited Canberra. Secretary Rumsfeld rolled out his map. 2006 [Lincoln. Other agencies offered their comments. Precision strike.” Chapter 3: Politics and Diplomacy of the Global Defense Posture Review. From there the issue went to the president. and when they had finished. make possible this assurance. Secretary Powell pledged his and the State Department’s support and assistance to the Global Defense Posture Review under one condition. What finally forced the issue was the link between prospective overseas withdrawals of military assets and units and the planned round of the Base Closure and Realignment (BRAC) Commission. and stealth. whenever the issue was raised within senior interagency circles. the White House released President George Bush’s statement announcing the new initiative.
for example. European governments will do well to revisit their ability to act immediately on time-sensitive intelligence. “Reposturing the Force: U. and How Might One Be Utilized In Iraq?”. but I appreciate your time and we’ll talk again soon.” http://www.A. 6-26-2010 [Michael.pdf] . from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. South Asia. The United States will do well to work out with allied governments modalities to satisfy host countries’ legitimate needs for information and consent. and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs (1988-89) among other policy positions in the Defense Department dating to 1981. We’re packing up here and so I’ve got to take off. the UN. State Department is stretched thin and military-diplomatic issues are inextricably linked. http://www. however. You know. readily responded to public and official queries about GDPR.usnwc. and technologies now operated. or timetables. carried to those regions the message that others had already given to Europe and Asia. military network so as to reflect the considerable changes over several decades in the way American soldiers. Persuading allies that military operations had evolved over time was not difficult. the EU or their parliaments. Deputy Secretary Armitage was able to calm negative foreign press speculation by. He graduated from Harvard College and received a M. You know. 2009 [Chuck. Mason. respectively.com/blog/2010/06/26/michael-hastings-interview-transcript/] there’s a larger kind of structural issue here about – you just compare the DOD budget to the State Department budget. you look at every foreign service officer – you know. You know. in fact. Mr.com 33/148 Thursday File during the winter of 2003–2004. it will serve the United States and its traditional allies best if the sides come to a mutual understanding on how to meet the needs of all. You know. Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs (1991-92). the administration provided briefing points for ambassadors to scores of countries. and Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs from 2001-2005. $600 billion to $50 billion. The recent examples of relatively lean forces dislodging the Taliban regime from Kabul and then the Saddam Hussein regime from Baghdad spoke volumes about conceptual leaps forward in the military arts by the United States since World War II. assuring the Australian public that the United States did not seek to base combat units in Australia. Africa.S. the approach was to explain the merits of rationalizing the global U.” Chapter 3: Politics and Diplomacy of the Global Defense Posture Review. Hastings. Bloomfield previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (1992-93). “Michael Hastings Interview Transcript. platforms. Rolling Stone. there’s more people in the Army band than there are foreign service officers. freelance writer. Former US Special Envoy for Man-Portable Air Defense Systems Threat Reduction. regardless of the urgency. More ev – US will have to reassure allies. Instead. the two are one. and Latin America. and the State Department’s regional assistant secretaries for Near East. This is not to say. http://www.S. closure of facilities. As this was truly a global initiative. 2006 [Lincoln. but I think we also have to start looking at the military leaders in a much more critical way than they’re accustomed to be looked at.D. and they should take their fair share of blame. so you look like at just the sort of decay of the State Department and basically our foreign policy has become our defense policy.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.antiwar.aspx] As the GDPR moves toward the implementation phase. “Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA): What Is It. 6/16. that all these consultations in Europe and Asia divulged specifics on planned movements and locations of units. as American military power is staged from their territories in future crises. even when there is no formal mandate from NATO. Bloomfield.edu/Publications/Naval-War-CollegePress/Newport-Papers/Documents/26-pdf. none of this was included in the initial briefings.edu/marshall/crsreports/crsdocuments/RL34531_06162008. you could fit every foreign service officer on an aircraft carrier. Also – negotiating SOFAs requires time and resources. And I think that translates Hastings: I think into the fact that a lot of the time just the leaders get the blame for all the wars.umaryland.L. Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century. And. indeed since Vietnam. Every geographic combatant commander’s area of responsibility was slated to experience change.law.
. Because the rule prohibiting the transfer of X is not directly binding. (3) if the commanding officer believes there is danger that the servicemember will not be protected because of the absence or denial of constitutional rights the accused would receive in the United States. or alters the right of the United States to safeguard its own security by excluding or removing persons whose presence in the United States is deemed prejudicial to its safety or security. perceptions about the relationship between the two rules may vary. 888. the commanding officer of the U. . and. The U. University of California. Because states are likely to have ex ante expectations about who the first movers will be. have been deterred by a hard regime. However. The resolution included a statement that nothing in the Agreement diminishes. and that no person whose presence in the United States is deemed prejudicial to its safety or security shall be permitted to enter or remain in the United States.. Lexis) Binding international agreements (i.. . From an evolutionary standpoint.9 The Senate reservations to the NATO SOFA include four conditions: (1) the criminal jurisdiction provisions contained in Article VII of the agreement do not constitute a precedent for future agreements. “SOFT LAW AS DELEGATION”. and equipment. PSI's purpose is to enforce international nonproliferation obligations by making it more difficult to acquire sensitive technology. Meyer Fellow Institue for Global Conflict 2009 (Timothy.. . abridges.. flexibility-enhancing devices are available to states to promote agreement in situations in which the parties might otherwise be unable to reach an accord.6 The Department of State and the Department of Defense. however. .. like the nuclear weapons states. a SOFA is specific to an individual country and is in the form of an executive agreement. . . armed forces in that state shall review the laws of the receiving state with reference to the procedural safeguards of the U. the cost to the United States of trade sanctions from a minor trading partner may be small compared with the benefits of such a violation because of the relative importance of the trading relationship to each state. treaties) often exacerbate the difficulties with renegotiation because unless a treaty provides otherwise.D. .. in which rules change over time to account flexibility can enhance global welfare over time. material. working together. Berkeley School of Law. First. holding expected levels of compliance constant.. The NATO SOFA7 is the only SOFA that was concluded as part of a treaty.S....com Thursday File With the exception of the multilateral SOFA among the United States and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries.S.e.. by permitting adjustment of the legal rules and expectations.S.. Institute for Global Conflict and Cooperation and the National Science Foundation. . as well as opportunistic violations of the soft regime that could for new conditions. 1970. subject to reservations. Ph.. Flexibility as a Device to Promote Agreement Other scholars have suggested that a variety of .Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 34/148 Cross-X. the commanding officer shall request that the receiving state waive its jurisdiction. Fordham University School of Law Fordham International Law Journal. University of California. would not put safeguards on its military nuclear operations). February 2009.. (2) when a servicemember is to be tried by authorities in a receiving state. This increase in the supply of counterproliferation is a public good that in some measure offsets the cost to other states of accepting their less-preferred counterproliferation rules. 32 Fordham Int'l L. ..10 Renegotiating treaties like SOFAs to withdraw troops take large amounts of diplomatic capital because many parties have veto power. Constitution. Public Policy and Nuclear Threats Fellow.J.D. as an export control regime. sought to make India an exception to the NSG rules that transfers can only be made to non-nuclear weapons states that have accepted safeguards on all of their nuclear operations (India. identify the need for a SOFA with a particular country and negotiate the terms of the agreement..8 The Senate approved ratification of the NATO SOFA on March 19.. every party to a treaty exercises a veto over amendments. establishing a soft law regime recognizes that the benefits to permitting those states to update legal rules over time outweighs the costs in terms of an opportunistic updating of such rules. (4) a representative of the United States be appointed to attend the trial of any servicemember being tried by the receiving state and act to protect the constitutional rights of the servicemember. Berkeley... Jurisprudence and Social Policy.. which has the effect of reducing the reputational sanction for violating the soft law rule (because not all states will see a violation of the one as a violation of the other). J.
as well as the Intelligence Community. 2010) Part of the Department’s obligation to defend and advance U. Given the complex security environment and the range of missions. as they undertook their Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review. improving our defense acquisition and logistics processes to better support our personnel in harm’s way. strengthening our technology and industrial bases to facilitate innovation. As the QDR generated insights and interim findings. key missions.com Thursday File Link – Military Change Military reforms and changes to our SQ policy require tons of diplomatic capital – consultation and reviews will happen at all levels of government. both within DoD and beyond.S. Defense leaders and staff worked closely with the Departments of State and Homeland Security. capabilities. and Quadrennial Intelligence Community Review respectively. Secretary of Defense.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 35/148 Cross-X. the QDR highlights the importance of revitalizing defense relationships with allies and partners in key regions. government to benefited from further the kind of integrated security approaches long advocated by the President. interests while taking care of our people is the imperative to reform how it does business. QDR staff consulted with and briefed congressional staff as well as representatives of allied and other governments. facilities. and institutional reforms necessary to protect and advance U. An important element of revitalizing key relationships is the need to craft an approach to the U. defense posture that emphasizes cooperation with allies and partners and retailoring military forces. and Secretary of State. The Quadrennial Defense Review in 2010 (QDR Report prepared for Congress. Over the course of the review. and defense agreements across regions. For example. The Department is working to help build a whole-of-government approach to the provision of security assistance.S.S. these were shared with and reviewed by a wide range of experts. interests. sharing insights regarding analysis. and crafting a strategic approach to climate and energy challenges. DoD officials also engaged with their counterparts elsewhere in the U. Quadrennial Homeland Security Review. February 1.S. capabilities. This QDR extensive engagement with key stakeholders. and plans in overlapping issue areas. .
and loss of confidence in American reliability. The military strategy proposed by Generals McChrystal and Petraeus needs. as a candidate. served as National Security Advisor and later concurrently as Secretary of State in the administrations of Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford. The prospects of world order will be greatly affected by whether our strategy comes to be perceived as a retreat from the region. That is likely to be the fate of any central government in Kabul. it can be relegated to being a secondary target. Since the Taliban. Newsweek. is a local. A key strategic issue. the probable target should a collapse in Afghanistan give jihad an even greater impetus. have all been recently appointed by the Obama administration. to decrease the present deployment with a new strategy. ever pacified the entire country. Afghanistan has been governed. Even so-called realists--like me-would gag at a tacit U. fundamental . It would raise the most serious questions about American steadiness in India. This theory seems to me to be too clever by half. the guerrillas often ceded control of the territory during the day and returned at night to prevent political stabilization. in fact. and recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize. In the past. at a minimum. to be given a broader context with particular emphasis on the political environment. Every guerrilla war raises the challenge of how to define military objectives. Al Qaeda and the Taliban are unlikely to be able to be separated so neatly geographically. according to this view. “More troops is a start. for it is highly improbable that the civic actions on which our policies are based could be carried out in areas controlled by the Taliban. the reversal of a process introduced with sweeping visions by two administrations may lead to chaos. or to increase the existing deployment with a strategy focused on the security of the population. The second option--offered as an alternative--would shrink the current mission by focusing on counter-terrorism rather than counterinsurgency. But those occurred after the surge. by a coalition of local feudal or semifeudal rulers. multiethnic society. A seemingly unavoidable paradox emerges. Therefore. by following the received counterinsurgency playbook too literally. Congress terminated an American role even after all our troops had. The most unambiguous form of exit strategy is victory. A negotiation with the group might isolate Al Qaeda and lead to its defeat. even that may not permit troop withdrawals. diplomat. each with outstanding qualifications. proclaimed Afghanistan a necessary war. In Vietnam. Yet the fanaticism that motivates guerrillas--not to speak of suicide bombers--does not allow for compromise unless they face defeat or exhaustion. After all. not as a way to avoid it. or a more effective way to sustain it. The domestic debate generates the pressure for diplomatic compromise. The request for more forces by General McChrystal states explicitly that his existing forces are inadequate for this mission. It would be ironic if. To adopt such a course is a disguised way of retreating from Afghanistan altogether. control of 75 percent of the territory 100 percent of the time is more important than controlling 100 percent of the territory 75 percent of the time. The argument would be that the overriding American strategic objective in Afghanistan is to prevent the country from turning once again into a base for international terrorism. It would also imply the partition of Afghanistan along functional lines. American political scientist. it would be widely interpreted as the first step toward withdrawal. 10-12. though as we have seen in Korea. It remains to be seen to what extent the achievements of the surge in Iraq will be sustained there politically. not a global. 2009 [Henry. Even Alexander the Great only passed through.S. after a while. It would draw us into a numbers game without definable criteria. Hence the defeat of Al Qaeda and radical Islamic jihad should be the dominant priority. any attempt to endow the central government with overriding authority has been resisted by some established local rulers. since the Mongol invasion. we produced another motive for civil war. But to win in Afghanistan we’ll need help from its powerful neighbors” Lexis] The demand for an exit strategy is. Those in the chain of command in Afghanistan. threatening domestic chaos. however. ultimately deeper American involvement. But the strategy of the guerrilla--described by Mao--is to draw the adversary into a morass of popular resistance in which. regardless of its ideological coloration and perhaps even its efficiency. where American troops have remained since 1953. This is of particular relevance to Afghanistan. threat. to take over. implying three options: to continue the present deployment and abandon the McChrystal strategy. a metaphor for withdrawal. in turn. Military strategy is traditionally defined by control of the maximum amount of territory. implies a surge testing the patience of the American public. That. A decision not to increase current force levels involves. commit it to the improvement of the lives of its people. David Petraeus. abandoning the strategy proposed by General McChrystal and endorsed by Gen. Kissinger. In Vietnam. been withdrawn for two years.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 36/148 Cross-X. will be which part of Afghan territory can be effectively controlled in terms of these criteria. and then protect the population until that government's own forces are able. This is not to exclude the possibility of defections from the Taliban as occurred from Al Qaeda in Iraq's Anbar province. it was the Taliban which provided bases for Al Qaeda in the first place. In short. if at all. in return for not challenging the Taliban in the governance of Afghanistan. and withdrawal that is not accompanied by a willingness to sustain the outcome amounts to abandonment. in guerrilla war. with our training. extrication becomes his principal objective. therefore. Can a civil society be built on a national basis in a country which is neither a nation nor a state? In a partly feudal. cooperation with the Taliban in the governance of Afghanistan. A sudden reversal of American policy would fundamentally affect domestic stability in Pakistan by freeing the Qaeda forces along the Afghan border for even deeper incursions into Pakistan. of course.com Thursday File Link – Afghanistan Withdrawal requires huge diplomatic efforts to reassure stakeholders in the region. As president. No outside force has. he has shown considerable courage in implementing his promise to increase our forces in Afghanistan and to pursue the war more energetically. Rejecting their recommendations would be a triumph of domestic politics over strategic judgment. President Obama. Is that paradox soluble? The prevailing strategy in Afghanistan is based on the classic anti-insurrection doctrine: to build a central government.
000 U.org/military/library/news/2003/06/mil-030620-rfel-161133.which include U. it's going to be a lot harder to convince others to work with us to get it right in Iraq.these points of credibility are all at issue. Iran. Answering a Pew Research Center question from January. those responses were 69% . Concurrently. Each is threatened in one way or another and.S. so far. once the decision was taken.S.S. even Iran by the fundamentalist Sunni Taliban. more than we are by the emergence of a base for international terrorism: Pakistan by Al Qaeda. In January 2006.com/2009/02/21/war-afghanistan-troops-opinions-columnists_obama.htm] But the independent panel's report calls for more. The council also asked that the ministry es demand After the the international forces halt airstrikes on civilian targets.civilians/. “Sources: Cell phone images alter course of Afghan probe“.” http://www.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 37/148 Cross-X. http://www. What does the public have to say about the situation in Afghanistan? Is public opinion turning against the "good" war? Can we expect help from our European allies? And what do Afghans have to say about conditions on the ground? U.S. For the foreseeable future. 23 February. CNN.S. “War In Afghanistan”. but it was more than some of Obama's anti-war supporters would have liked.globalsecurity. 2008 [Barbara Starr. In all previous American ground-combat efforts. troops to Afghanistan to "stabilize a deteriorating situation. Each has substantial capacities for defending its interests. and NATO troops. Afghanistan's Council of Ministers called on the Defense and Foreign Affairs ministries to start negotiating a "status of forces" agreement with international forces -. our credibility as a mobilizer of international coalitions when crises are reached and if we don't succeed and get it right in Afghanistan -. China. Forbes. Wisner drew a parallel between the current situation in Afghanistan and U. 64% of respondents said the U. foreign policy and will undermine the global position of Washington as a peacekeeper. a serious diplomatic effort is needed to address the major anomaly of the Afghan war.com Thursday File social reform is a long process.S. And with them.S. A major effort is needed to encourage such an evolution. to stand more or less aloof. support for the mission remains robust. our credibility as a force for stability. More emphasis needs to be given to regional efforts and regional militia.org.S. http://www. Russia. GlobalSecurity. where he is expected to ask allies for more help.: Panel Urges Increased Support For Afghan Government.cnn." Wisner said. 2003 [Nikola. On August 25. in many respects. The special aspect of Afghanistan is that it has powerful neighbors or near neighbors--Pakistan. “U. the control from Kabul may be tenuous and its structure less than ideal. "Our credibility as a peacekeeper.000 troops Last week. Policy failure will devastate US negotiating credibility. I'll suggest as well is our ability to look forward to the kind of exit from Iraq that we as Americans would want to achieve at a certain point. Withdrawal requires SOFA negotiations. ministers demanded a review of international troops within its borders. The president also ordered a review of policies in Afghanistan to be completed before April's NATO summit. peace efforts in Iraq. there was no alternative to America's leading the effort. Russia by unrest in the Muslim south. India. China by fundamentalist Shiite jihadists in Xinjiang. made the right decision to use military force there.forbes. while 25% said the country had made the wrong decision. India by general jihadism and specific terror groups. It says any further security deterioration in Afghanistan will have far-reaching implications for U. 9-8] Afghan government concluded its investigation. perhaps unrelatable to the rhythm of our electoral processes. as well as house searches not coordinated with Afghan authorities and the illegal detention of civilians. If we can't get it right in Afghanistan.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/09/08/afghan. no other country had the combination of resources or national interest required. This would also enhance our political flexibility. President Barack requested by General David McKiernan." The deployment fell short of the 30. Each has chosen. Krastev. our credibility as a warrior against terror. who heads the U. and NATO command there. Pulling troops out of Afghanistan will delay other priorities – Afghanistan wants us to stay and will prolong negotiations Bowman 9 (Karlyn.html) Obama authorized sending another 17.
32% do now). Obama's popularity on the continent is unlikely to trump its residents' pacifism. Americans were more positive about the military effort in Iraq than they were about that in Afghanistan.S.com Thursday File and 20%. about helping train the Afghan police forces or combat troops. however. In Pew's January 2009 poll. Transatlantic Trends found that more than 70% of respondents in the five European countries with the most troops in Afghanistan supported providing security for economic reconstruction projects and for helping to stem narcotics production. at 13%. In Pew's poll. In a March 2003 CBS News/New York Times poll. military forces in their country. while 44% wanted to cut the numbers. 36% said the U. government (68% called it excellent or good in 2005. was winning in Afghanistan. 60% said it was not.S.S. the 2007 Transatlantic Trends/German Marshall Fund survey found 64% of Europeans supported international reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan. In the same poll. 52% do now). 30% of Europeans agreed that "under some conditions. . survey question. 18% of Afghans fourth survey of opinion of Afghans. They were less enthusiastic. pollsters in mid January show that around one-third of Americans believe the U. Questions about troop levels asked by three major U. So when it comes to getting additional combat support from Europe. respectively. with the BBC and ARD German TV. At the same time. When asked about conducting combat operations against the Taliban. (Drug traffickers were a distant second.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 38/148 Cross-X. just 30% of Europeans expressed support. a figure down from 78% in 2006. A strong plurality.S.S. said coalition forces should withdraw only after security has been restored. in answer to another question. by August 2008. views about how the war is going have deteriorated. wanted to increase U. Fifty-eight percent of Afghans said the greatest danger their country faces is the resurgence of the Taliban. respectively--said the number should be decreased." Comment On This Story In 2008. In its ABC News. slightly fewer--28% and 29%.) Sixty-three percent support the presence of U. and NATO/ISAF troops in their country. military presence. war is necessary to obtain justice. and the U. though. In another question. found a sharp deterioration in views of Afghanistan's president. should increase the number of troops in Afghanistan. nearly half of Democrats surveyed (48%) wanted to reduce U. Hamid Karzai (83% deemed him excellent or good in 2005. In CBS News/New York Times and ABC News/Washington Post polls. In Europe.S. In a December 2008 CNN/Opinion Research Corp. 76% said it was going very or somewhat well for the U. only 28% gave that response..S.S.
global defense posture could profit the nation’s security. and an annual budget now surpassing $400 billion. Korea. redesign. and land routes from one region to the next. One could well imagine the Pentagon’s potential misgivings about placing this hugely ambitious venture at the mercy of other departments. or reconfiguration of an organizational empire that includes well over two million soldiers and civilians. of perturbing the very stability that America’s global military presence is meant to ensure. indeed overwhelmingly. “Reposturing the Force: U. To think otherwise would be to overlook the belief. without overly taxing the system. Big Change. depending on how the matter is handled. A global posture realignment that involves moving large numbers of those sentries and their weapons inevitably begs the most urgent of security questions. Big Decision: Getting to “Yes” What with the profound implications of a posture change for allied countries hosting U. 2006 [Lincoln. That he did it during wartime is extraordinary. a well-executed streamlining of the U. and their support structure should be physically positioned according to the logic of global geography is very appealing.edu/Publications/Naval-War-CollegePress/Newport-Papers/Documents/26-pdf. their equipment. and it embodied major foreign policy equities. Mr. He graduated from Harvard College and received a M. never mind foreign policy .S. his determination to rethink. Former US Special Envoy for Man-Portable Air Defense Systems Threat Reduction. forces and the state of America’s diplomatic relations with them.D. and therefore runs the risk. globally managed force posture would optimize the flow of combat power along sea.S. braving the predictable resistance of settled constituencies from one end of the globe to the other. That Mr. this massive exercise in managerial housekeeping by the secretary of defense cannot be viewed exclusively as one cabinet executive’s effort to make more productive use of the people. and the sight of U. the Philippines. Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century. military force units.A. http://www. Of all of Donald Rumsfeld’s actions during his headline-filled second tenure as secretary of defense. At the same time. the fielding of powerful and complex weapons systems. air.aspx] An Ambitious Concept When historians look back on the Defense Department’s biggest undertakings during its first six decades of existence. that America is committed—via the North Atlantic Treaty. the decision to embark on a global realignment was the president’s to make. The Global Defense Posture Review (GDPR) is such an undertaking. assets. certainly none of his predecessors seriously attempted it. directly to the point of engagement. resident in allied populations in more than fifty countries by latest count. Bloomfield previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (1992-93).S. would inevitably make their voices heard before the Department of Defense’s new scheme based on geographic convenience and logistical efficiency could supplant longstanding basing patterns in foreign localities. excites foreign anxieties in many quarters. An Ambitious Concept The idea that U. an efficiently designed. For all the calculations of greater efficiency and utility that commend the idea of reconfiguring America’s global military footprint. Thailand. Bloomfield. even when the nature and location of the crisis had not been foreseen.S. streamlining. and the promulgation of defense and security strategies to prepare for and deter threats to the national interest. The Department of State. Rarely to be found among these major tasks will be any large-scale updating.S. political in terms of its effect on the rest of the world. and funding allotted to his department. solemnly made. Rumsfeld took on this monumental management task. if not in monetary terms certainly in the ability of a finite force structure to deliver the maximum military benefit through the greater efficiencies and capabilities of the new global posture. armed forces standing the watch in almost every latitude and time zone has calmed regional rivalries and dissuaded armed escalations for sixty years.usnwc. and bilateral security treaties with Japan. Over the long term. their facilities. and Australia— to come to their defense in extremis. they will of course cite the prosecution of wars both hot and cold.S. and the allied governments themselves. and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs (1988-89) among other policy positions in the Defense Department dating to 1981. Such a concept would best allow future presidents to position viable military options to employ anywhere in response to a sudden danger on the shortest of notice. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs (1991-92).” Chapter 3: Politics and Diplomacy of the Global Defense Posture Review.L. the Rio Treaty. These are national commitments. military’s posture at home and abroad according to a rational design reflecting contemporary security conditions should stand as a positive mark in his legacy. is noteworthy. Conceptually.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 39/148 Cross-X. approximately five thousand facilities spread all over the country and the world. this initiative is inescapably. and Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs from 2001-2005.com Thursday File Links – Asia Reducing military presence prompts State Department intervention – focuses diplomatic efforts on minimizing effects of the aff. and reposition the U.
by their manner. Specifically true for Asian withdrawals.S. The future of US alliances and. Taipei Times. such concerns were not limited to experienced regional specialists in the State Department. 5-16-2010 [Walter. will not fill the gap alone. In at least one country DoD doggedly sought to announce and implement a drawdown of military assets against that ally’s wishes and with an evident relish that required diplomatic damage control and led the president to withhold to himself the withdrawal decision. Lohman. Countries in the region are in the early stages of planning against that eventuality. “Managing alliances in a new world. there were indeed some in the State Department who wanted nothing more than for the initiative to go away and who feared damage to alliances if it went forward. by extension. indeed opposition.taipeitimes. On the other hand. Within the U. there were varying perceptions about whether the advertised merits of particular changes under the Global Defense Posture Review would indeed redound to the long-term security benefit of the United States. The region wants a “resident” US. however helpful to the cause. director of the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation. has their concern looked more plausible. concerns in the State Department that some Department of Defense (DoD) officials.” http://www.com 40/148 Thursday File bureaucrats. however. All the trips to the region and speeches in the world. It wants a strong US. The concern was not imaginary. They need reassurance. depends on it. whose reaction to any disturbance of the diplomatic status quo might be expected to be one of resistance to change. It is even good for the Chinese themselves. policy bureaucracy as a whole. .Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. US long-term security.com/News/editorials/archives/2010/05/16/2003473110] US allies in Asia and friends who depend on them have long wrung their hands at the prospect of US withdrawal. The Obama administration needs to consider the full range of policy decisions and diplomacy in this light. At no time since the administration of former US president Jimmy Carter. because it precludes some of the most aggressive scenarios in their own development. might aggravate rather than defuse foreign anxieties were also not entirely misplaced. even to discussing prospective force reductions with allied countries.
Campbell said the alliance with Japan was a "cornerstone" of the US engagement in Asia.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 41/148 Cross-X. with members of his coalition government calling for all US troops to leave Japan. a cabinet minister. At a rally against the base. led by prime minister Yukio Hatoyama.S. In written testimony before a Senate Foreign Relations Committee subcommittee on January 21. pacifists. with its review of the Futenma relocation plan. But the issue is a difficult one for the prime minister to juggle. under a banner that read "Change! Japan-U. called for the removal of the US base [Reuters] Last month Campbell called on Japan to stick to the 2006 deal and relocate the US Futenma air base in Okinawa. Last week. as thousands marched through central Tokyo on Saturday. Mizuho Fukushima.net/news/asia-pacific/2010/02/20102133033203868. the two countries signed a pact that called for the realignment of American troops in the country and for a marine base on the island to be moved to a less populated area. Hatoyama has repeatedly postponed his decision on the pact. The of American military bases in Japan. a minister in Hatoyama's cabinet. Local residents have long complained about noise.aljazeera. told a crowd protesters that she wants to see the Okinawa base closed and US troops moved out of Japan entirely.000 US troops are stationed in Japan. Campbell also reiterated Washington's desire to see that the US Marine Corps Air Station at Futenma be transferred to another area on the island by 2014. In 2006. he pledged to resolve the issue by May.html) US assistant secretary of state for East Asia is due to arrive in Tokyo on Monday for talks on the future visit comes after thousands of people from across Japan joined protests at the weekend against plans to relocate a US base on the southern island of Okinawa. Labor unionists.com Thursday File Link – Japan Renegotiating the SOFA will be costly – internal political struggles in Japan will prevent quick passage of the plan. He said the US is assisting the Japanese government. Al Jazeera 10 (1 February 2010. But the newly elected Japanese government is re-examining the deal. with more than half on the island. with members of his own government divided on how to proceed. Decision postponed However. caught between increasing public opposition to US troops and its crucial military alliance with Washington. They gathered for a rally at a park. Meanwhile. environmentalists and students called for an end to the US troop presence. pollution and crime around the bases. http://english. “US envoy to discuss Japan bases”. Some 47. opposition to the US-Japan pact is growing louder. Kurt Campbell's 'Cornerstone' alliance Mizuho Fukushima. Relations". . just before national elections.
http://www.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview. 1/23/09. The vast majority of South Koreans don't question the authenticity of the professional judgment of the U. States saved their country from North Korean aggression and also is the only foreign country the ROK has ever fought for in the history of Korea. they question what the alliance is all about. . His decision is in full harmony with Korean culture and emotion. 6/24/10 through LexisNexis.lexisnexis. the decision is worthy of delay. couldn't we postpone the decision until at least denuclearization of North Korea is completed? The OPCON transfer and the CFC dissolution is not a simple military issue but a complicated matter where hard power and soft power are combined. Concerning the unpreparedness of the ROK military against a North they ask.S.com Thursday File Link – South Korea Plan unpopular: Public wants US troops to stay until North Korea denuclearizes Cheon 09 [Seong-whun. Their insufficient knowledge of the North Korean nuclear threat largely results from deliberate propaganda of the Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun administrations. We We need to exercise similar wisdom. Writer for the Korea Herald. Successfully exercising soft power in the alliance means that the United States should win over South Koreans by paying careful attention to what they believe. spreading quiet ripple effects on Korean society. Acc. military. Recently. there was an auspicious example in this regard. That is priority number one of the alliance at this juncture. They manufactured a false sense of peace and security while intentionally ignoring or making little of the Still.at this moment. He also sent a delegation to express his condolences to the family of Kim. Simply because the North Korean military is most delighted to see the OPCON transfer and the CFC dissolution. Some even think that Washington is ready to accept the DPRK as a nuclear state as long as it is not committed to proliferation.do? docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T9622716431&format=GNBFI&sort=RELEVANCE&startDocNo=1&resu ltsUrlKey=29_T9622562285&cisb=22_T9622716436&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=158208& docNo=1] The South Korean public was perplexed at the gushing of official reports and remarks from the United States. should not send any hint of a wrong signal to Kim Jong-il.” Korea Herald. General Sharp sent USFK officials at Incheon Airport to receive the remains of Kim Suk-im who died when an American jet fighter crashed into her San Diego home last December. South Koreans question whether it is right to implement the decision the OPCON transfer and the CFC dissolution . “Transfer of troop control: A Bush legacy.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 42/148 Cross-X. Using soft power is the ability to attract the South Korean people to the American side. Korean WMD attack. Remembering that the United nuclear threat.
2009 [Christa Case. and 150. troops out of Iraq. and Obama’s plan now indicates an earlier withdrawal of the bulk of the troops by August 2010. Boot. troops also play a vital peacekeeping role. The last American-Iraqi security accord took a year to negotiate. One option might be to send some personnel and equipment via Turkey.S. “Troop withdrawal: Obama to end Iraq war by August 2010. there is a serious danger of war breaking out once American troops leave. Lexis] Obama's overriding objective is to pull U. but that will only be possible after what is sure to be a protracted and tortuous negotiation with the new Iraqi government.” 2-27. a US military presence is allowed for up to three more years. If the new government isn't seated until the end of this year.000 private contractors from nearly 50 bases and installations. 2008 [“US. Thus the Iraqi and American timelines are dangerously out of sync. 5-9. The possibility of miscalculation will grow once the Iraqi armed forces acquire the M-1 tanks and F-16 fighters that we have agreed to sell them.com Thursday File Link – Iraq Troop drawdown in Iraq will take years of intense negotiations. It is all the more important that an American buffer -. Iraq still negotiating troop presence deal”. According to the Status of Forces Agreement. where the two-lane Habur Gate crossing has been used quietly as a way to move supplies. That takes tons of diplomatic resources. Large troop reductions at a time of such political uncertainty will send a dangerous signal of disengagement and lessen America's ability to preserve the integrity of the elections. 10-15. a US-Iraqi deal settled on at the end of 2008. which have grown in size and competence but still aren't capable of defending their airspace or performing other vital functions. But US units are supposed to draw back from Iraqi cities to US bases by this summer.csmonitor.google.say 10. They hope that some forces will be permitted to remain. 5-9-2010 [Max. Bush administration called for the departure of all our soldiers by the end of 2011.000 aircraft and vehicles. it will be extremely difficult to conclude a treaty by the end of next year.000 to 15.000 to 50. If the US doesn’t address Maliki’s postelection moves. It is vital to have a continuing American military presence to train That should be no surprise considering that President and advise Iraqi security forces. http://www.com/article/ALeqM5gXdwNmi_OvQcfCpWQ1s38VB-egqw] . The presumption was that the drawdown would occur after Iraq had installed a new government. “There’s still time to lose in Iraq.000 by September. But Iraqi politicians now expect that no government will emerge before the fall. officers in Iraq are right now implementing plans to draw down our troops to zero by the end of 2011. 120.S. Yet U. which the Monitor recently tallied to include: 60.000 troops -. American officials expected that postelection jockeying would end by June at the latest. Obama added a new twist by ordering that troop strength be cut from the current 95. Kurdish politicians I met in Irbil warned that if Iraqi-Kurdish land disputes aren't resolved by the end of 2011 (and odds are they won't be). The delay in seating a government also endangers the possible negotiation of a fresh accord to govern Iraqi-American relations after 2011.000 trailer-sized containers. CSM. Bryant. In keeping with the deal. http://afp. The Iraqi-American security accord negotiated by the George W. U. the billions of dollars spent and the thousands of lives lost could be for nothing” Los Angeles Times.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 43/148 Cross-X.S.com/World/Global-News/2009/0227/troop-withdrawal-obama-to-end-iraqwar-by-august-201] Another challenge of the withdrawal is how to move the significant amount of equipment now in Iraq. Senior fellow in national security studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and contributing editor to the opinion section of Los Angeles Times. AFP. patrolling with Iraqi troops and the Kurdish peshmerga along the disputed Green Line separating Iraq proper from the Kurdish regional government. Obama promised today that the remaining 50.000 troops – a bigger number than Democrats were expecting – will leave by 2011.remain to ensure that those weapons are never used against our Kurdish allies. SOFA goes til 2011 – withdrawing ahead of schedule means we’d have to negotiate a new one.
forces in Iraq. but that condition could take years to meet.S. President Barack Obama has ordered all U. Both US and Iraqi leaders have stressed that a deal is in the works.. Robinson. But they have differed over some issues such as granting immunity to US soldiers for acts committed in Iraq. The U. and all U. dubbed the Status of Forces Agreement. "Nothing is done until everything is done.” 9-18.S. he said. 2008 [“U." The accord.michaelmoore. combat forces from Iraq.51voa. We are still talking to the Iraqis. But. Withdrawal requires negotiation with Iraqi government. Saying the United States withdrawal should be "moral and responsible.com/words/latest-news/us-iraq-seek-troop-withdrawal-time-horizon] Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki have agreed that a security deal under negotiation should set a "time horizon" for meeting "aspirational goals" for reducing U. that could cause problems during and after the elections. The Iraqis are still talking among themselves.S.com/VOA_Standard_English/VOA_Standard_English_33702.President likelihood of some kind of timetable for future U. None of these steps has been acted upon. among [other things] amending the Constitution. forces gone by the end of 2011.” 7-18. “Iraqi Politicians Urge Cautious US Military Withdrawal. yet these steps are very necessary for the stabilization of Iraq. mandate expires at the end of the year. troop cuts. the White House said "the goals would be based on continued improving conditions on the ground and not an arbitrary date for withdrawal. forces to withdraw fully five years after the Iraqis take the lead on security nationwide.S." he said. Upon returning from a trip to Europe last week. whether Washington has the right to detain Iraqi prisoners and on the future command of military operations on the ground.S. Iraqi government opposes immediate withdrawal before stability – diplomatic investments necessary in the absence of presence. and United Nations for thorough monitoring. sectarian and other problems as well as external factors. The act includes. while Iraq seeks a path of prosperity and sovereignty where individual and minority rights are respected. but has been held up by the ongoing negotiations." the White House said. http://www.S." Iraqi and U.S. Allawi said Iraq's military remains unable to shoulder the security burden. the president and the prime minister agreed that improving conditions should allow for the agreements now under negotiation to include a general time horizon for meeting aspirational goals — such as the resumption of Iraqi security control in their cities and provinces and the further reduction of U. Maliki had recently suggested a timetable be set for U. but not in turmoil. He declined to say whether the two sides were even close to a deal.S." Iraqi parliament member Saleh al-Mutlaq said the only way to ensure free and fair elections in his country is with a commitment by the U. And. While Iraqis know the United States will be withdrawing its military forces. 2009 [Dan. MSNBC. The deal was originally set to be signed in July.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. troops to remain when an U. officials have been working in fits and starts on a formal Status of Forces Agreement to provide a legal basis for U." State Department spokesman Sean McCormack told reporters.S.N. senior US officials said Wednesday. combat forces out of Iraq by the end of August of next year. Everything isn't done. both Allawi and parliament member Saleh al-Mutlaq pointed to political. And he said oustanding political and constitutional issues are also giving rise to severe tensions. wants to leave Iraq. In the closest the Bush administration has come to acknowledging the WASHINGTON .com 44/148 Thursday File WASHINGTON (AFP) — The United States and Iraq are still negotiating the terms of an agreement on the future presence of US troops in Iraq next year. VOA. http://www. US Defense Secretary Robert Gates said he was "actually reasonably optimistic we will come to closure on this in a very near future. withdrawal. "Without this monitoring.S.S. "In the area of security cooperation.html] Former Iraqi Prime Minister Allawi said the United States and Iraq have similar goals. instituting an inclusive political process and implementing political and national reconciliation. is to put in place a deal for the future status of US troops in Iraq after the UN Security Council mandate for the multinational force expires on December 31. officials have been much more cautious despite an improving security situation. the White House said Friday. such as pressures from Iran. Iraq seek troop withdrawal 'time horizon'.S. I .S. "The implementation of [the] political reform act as passed by Parliament in 2008 is a must. Iraq has proposed requiring U. but U.
" he said. In his testimony Thursday. "We have proven that no battered country. U. "We do not want." he said.com/index. "these are part of the reconciliation" process in the warthe 1979 Islamic revolution. especially after this agreement with the US and the way we debated it. stressing that Iraq's neighbours were now taking it seriously. military presence.S. he said. forces." in contrast to other countries where it would have been a state secret. For Baghdad. Lt. 2-6. our continued engagement despite their negativism.S. The Democratic representative of the U. Congress to the United Nations. Zebari pointed to the opening of several Arab embassies in Baghdad and to the expected stream of diplomatic visits.." Zebari said Baghdad's often troubled ties with Damascus had "improved a great deal" .S. he said. the subcommittee Chairman. And many Iraqis' views and positions are colored by efforts to outflank. Vice President Joe Biden said on Thursday the United States will abide by any decisions by the Iraqi people on the U." he later told a U. On the final day of a visit to Iraq. adorned with a plush Persian carpet. with economic issues high on the agenda. Iraq had also taken a stand last month by staying away from a meeting of leaders in Qatar meant to shore up support for Hamas over the Gaza crisis. "Sectarianism. over our constitutional reforms.php?news=14364&searchFor=Iran] "We have political problems. said a large international observer presence is required before and during the vote. and instead attended an economic summit in Kuwait. The agreement will set the rules and legal protections under which U. former Iraqi Prime Minister Allawi voiced concern about what he called "reversals in security" after a fragile period of improvement. in parliament." he said in his office.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 45/148 Cross-X.” http://www.S. presence in Iraq also will be part of the negotiations. referring to the loss of diplomatic credibility after the US-led invasion of March 2003 that toppled Saddam Hussein. in the media.S. 2009 [Haro. Roberts. outmaneuver and constrain rival factions. nor will we seek. government performance. More ev – SOFAs. Pointing to questions about the legitimacy of the recent election in Afghanistan. Delahunt said he will use consultations in New York next week to generate support for international monitoring of the Iraqi elections.S. "The impression has completely changed. has said. policy in Afghanistan." Gates told a U." the foreign minister said. Democratic Representative William Delahunt. has a moral responsibility and national security interest in ensuring fraud-free elections in Iraq. part of which was established in a Status of Forces Agreement reached during the Bush administration. "We are thinking of reopening our [oil] pipeline through Syria to the Mediterranean." he said.reuters. permanent The United States and Iraq have agreed to start formal negotiations about their future relationship with the goal of finishing an accord by the end of July. Delahunt worries not only about a deterioration in Iraq. It's about Afghanistan and I dare say it's about the entire region. And we have been getting so many warnings that we are going to be targeted. a specialist in Middle East Affairs with the Congressional Research Service. Reuters. Chakmakijan. staff writer for Agence French Presse.S. 2-17. as another example of Iraq's ability to stand on its own two feet. Staff Writer. Katzman said sectarian tensions could reach a peak as Iraqis decide whether to hold a referendum on the U. http://www. The size of the long-term U. but the impact electoral problems in Iraq could have on the American public support for U. House of Representatives committee. "It used to be that way. the assassinations are already there. 'We tried it once. And look what happened. warned that sectarianism in Iraq might worsen in the run-up to the elections. tensions." he said.S. which should include not only the deployment of U. Senate panel. the [long-delayed] oil law. that's a key issue. the White House deputy national security adviser. The United States. Kenneth Katzman.com Thursday File believe that the election will be the same as happened before. withdrawal schedule. not only for Iraq's future but for the region. "Syria's prime minister and foreign minister are coming over soon. an Iraqi Kurd. referring to the scepticism of nearby countries. Gen. "All this has sent the right signals.com/article/idUSN06442345] "The status-of-forces agreement that is being discussed will not contain a commitment to defend Iraq and neither will any strategic framework agreement.' So this isn't just simply about supporting the Iraqi people and democracy in Iraq. In his testimony to the subcommittee. Zebari. “Iraq Sheds US Puppet in its Own Backyard. along with an upsurge in sectarian tensions.jordantimes. we have our vested interests and can make our own decisions.S. support here in this country for involvement in Afghanistan will diminish because the American people will be saying. Plus. 2008 [Kristin. withdrawing before stability devastates negotiating credibility. Calling the elections critical. that our people are going to be targeted. bases in Iraq. "If the election in January is unsuccessful. it didn't work.S. also pointed to Baghdad's good ties with Tehran. and ethnic and factional infighting continue to simmer. “Gates: US won't promise to defend Iraq in accord”." he said. The intimidation is already there. forces operate in Iraq." he said. Douglas Lute. Within the Arab world. the arch-foe of Washington ever since matter what the differences between the United States and a neighbouring country. but a strong United Nations involvement..
and international policy priority in the region — the planned troop withdrawals. soldiers who sacrificed their lives. dominated by regional influences.com/2010/06/12/editorial-how-iraqcan-fortify-its-fragile-democracy/] we hope that the United States and the United Nations will help bring Iraq’s political blocs together to achieve a government in the national interest." he said. that is wrong. I sincerely hope that the United States will remain actively engaged in Iraq.com Thursday File following their opening of embassies in late 2006.. with which Iraq has had troubled ties for decades.uniquely echoing a thousand recent op-eds -was President Bush's finest moment. Lynch Professor Political Science 09 (Marc. It demonstrated a pragmatism and willingness to put the national interest ahead of partisanship that few of us believed he possessed. through consulates. he acknowledged Shiite Iran was influential in the new Iraq.S. to Baghdad for the first time. is sending its deputy premier and foreign minister. "We told them this is a sovereign Iraqi decision. he argues. Renegotiating the SOFA for a rapid withdrawal will demand large amounts of attention – Allawi wants US troops to stay for legitimacy and will delay negotiations.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 46/148 Cross-X. http://www. Allawi. to have a protocol of dealing with each other. largely thanks to Bush's acceptance of his own bargaining failure that Barack Obama will inherit a plausible route to successful . But our attitude [now] is to deal with each other as two sovereign countries. I think. military forces from Iraq on a fixed three year timeline demonstrated a real flexibility on Bush's part. which finished first in votes in Iraq’s national elections in March. Rather than simply denounce everything Republican. Vice President Biden recently said that the United States was “going to be able to keep our commitment” to reduce troop levels in Iraq to 50. Even Kuwait. 28 January 2009. “Editorial: How Iraq can fortify its fragile democracy.S. While I have long supported the withdrawal of U.perhaps we could have another round of arguments as to whether the surge brigades arriving in the spring of 2007 caused the Sunni turn against al-Qaeda in the fall of 2006? But in the interests of post-partisanship.foreignpolicy.to be followed. He served as prime minister from 2004 to 2005. associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University ." With Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's visit last week . culminating in Saddam's 1990 invasion.. "We are trying to formalise relations with them through embassies. where the Shiite majority is dominant." he said. to help shield our fragile democracy from foreign interference and forces that wish to undermine democracy. I have to be honest.. long way with them. “Bush's finest moment on Iraq: SOFA. even the chances of success in the Israeli-Palestinian issue Renegotiating SOFAs for troop withdrawal requires considerable diplomatic capital – Iraq proves. Iraq cannot be allowed to revert to an unstable state of sectarian strife." Turning to Tehran. 10 [Ayad.com/posts/2009/01/18/sofa_not_the_surge) Peter Beinart today bravely repeats the emerging would-be conventional wisdom. said Zebari. ForeignPolicy. Washington still has unrivaled leverage in Iraq. through official channels." the minister said. no. http://lynch. Moreover.S. by Iran's former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani the two sides are placing their diplomatic ties on a new footing." said Zebari. "They have influence. Such an outcome would insult the tens of thousands of Iraqi civilians whose lives were stolen in terrorist attacks and the thousands of U.yalibnan. "We have come a long. demarcation of borders and the billions of dollars in war reparation claims will be among the thorny issues on the agenda. nuclear containment.” YaLibnan.S. I am Signing a Status of Forces Agreement requiring the full withdrawal of U." Zebari said. a stable energy supply. They haven't stopped but the Syrians have taken a number of measures. It is willing to offer an alternative as Bush's finest hour in Iraq: the Status of Forces Agreement. "They took that as a sign. and secondly they felt that this will backfire on them. of Iraq asserting more independence. "There are less infiltrators coming from the Syrian border. who has served as foreign minister since Iraq's first post-invasion administration. Joint oil fields. leader of the Iraqiya List. troops. it would also put at risk every U. Democrats should admit that the "surge" worked and -. "To say that they dictate to us. Sheikh Mohammad Sabah Al Salim Al Sabah. citing Tehran's strong opposition to the security pact with Washington. I have a hard time imagining anything as tedious as rehashing those tired debates from the campaign about the "surge" -. as well as a moral responsibility to the Iraqi people whom it freed from tyranny to do all it can to deliver sustainable peace and stability.000 by this summer. Zebari contrasted the approach to the individual contacts dating back to the days of opposition to Saddam's regime when many of today's leaders of Iraq were exiled in Iran. not the surge”.
than his own. To his credit. But elections and an intensely strong popular Iraqi hostility to the U. was in charge than they . http://bigthink.S. an assumption that the U.S. pointless. took a hard line in the negotiations.S. .Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 47/148 SOFA negotiations looking for something entirely different than what emerged at the end. playing high-stakes chicken at the expense of American military planning for the coming year and at the risk of the Iraqi political system not having adequate time to ratify the deal.he didn't authorize Ambassador Ryan Crocker to sign off on the deal until after the Presidential election (on November 18). “Has the Iraq War depleted our military and diplomatic capital?” 5-22. he could have insisted on the latter. no doubt. but we don’t have democracy there. Finally. the December 31 deadline loomed large.S. I don’t believe that with the United States having taken the lid off Pandora’s box . forces in three years.S. withdrawal. Granted. Sorenson. and violence.S. troops entirely contingent upon American assessments of conditions on the ground. there will still be bloodshed.com/ideas/1085] Question: Has the Iraq War depleted our military and diplomatic capital? Ted Sorensen: We haven’t spent it all. . And it’s . is among the reasons why Robert Gates will continue as Secretary of Defense. who was secular. . Women in . including several rounds of upcoming style timeline for withdrawal. We didn’t even have enough troops to secure the borders and keep the terrorists from pouring in from other countries. but now they’re killed today by other Iraqis. It’s the stupidest blunder in American foreign policy history. Iraq inevitably devastates capital – withdrawal can’t help. than they have now when the United States put the Shiia in power. Kennedy. . and an absolute rejection of an Obama- Iraqi leaders. went into the SOFA talks intent on obtaining legitimacy for a long-term military presence in Iraq once the Security Council mandate ended. and there is no end in sight. And this. Thanks to this pragmatism. . Whether we stay for 50 years as John McCain may be necessary like Korea. bases and a Korea-style presence for generations. Former Special Counsel to Pres.S. We didn’t even have enough troops to secure the arsenals and armories so that the terrorists just robbed all of those weapons. As negotiations dragged on. Conservatives now like to claim the SOFA as a "Bush-negotiated" success. . He could have continued to push for this conception closer to the December 31 deadline. . threatening to leave the U. The Iraqis were also helped by the calender. troops without any legal mandate to remain in the country and forcing the hand of American negotiators. So what have we achieved? And there are more Iraqi civilians being killed every day.S. When negotiations began. to most everyone's surprise.S. But we have stretched thin our conventional forces in a foolish. Iraqi women probably have fewer rights today than they had women Saddam Hussein. Their tough line was encouraged by Iran. . he hedged -. And they’re now being used against American troops. or stay for 50 months or weeks. as his finest moment in Iraq. This would have fit with his administration's often-repeated preferences. And here's where I will offer some sincere praise for Bush and his team. There were widespread discussions of permanent U. and sectarian killings. We still have enormous stockpiles of strategic weapons that have never been used. it was widely assumed that Bush would extract from the Iraqis an agreement which made the removal of U. would retain a free hand in its operations. 2008 [Ted. And thus I offer Bush's willingness to sign the SOFA mandating U.S.withdrawal of U. But it also reflected Iraqi domestic considerations. he was an evil man. When the Iraqis insisted on an Obama-style timeline for U. withdrawal from Iraq. They used to be killed every day by stray American bombs. the Iraqi leaders clearly kept a careful eye on the American Presidential elections and used Obama's stance to strengthen their own hand in negotiations. But Bush entered the U. . and political wrangling going on inside Iraq. and Iraq and agreed to a SOFA which far more closely matched Obama's avowed vision for Iraq -. occupation under any name.S. The Cross-X. as stressed by many frustrated American commentators. no permanent bases -.style conditions-based aspirational time frame for U. and God willing will never be used. We have so messed up that country that I’m not sure even a democratic president can solve it. Obama can now work closely with the Iraqi government in managing the drawdown instead of spending his first months in office trying to wriggle out of an unacceptable deal.com Thursday File disengagement from Iraq. But at that point he bowed to the political realities in the U. But he didn't. And what have we achieved? Saddam Hussein is gone. endless invasion and occupation of Iraq. withdrawal. and not the surge. Bush agreed to the Obama-style timeline for U. I might speculate. withdrawal instead of a Bush/McCain. Yes.S.
Turkey must be fully confident in NATO and U.S. For its part. nuclear weapons: improved alliance relations.S. nuclear weapons in Turkey”Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists http://www.4.D. Yost.. Ship-based Aegis missile systems will be the backbone of the strategy.thebulletin. July.S. Ankara's potential influence with Tehran should not be underestimated. 2009 [Alexandra and Benjamin. Doing so requires a key factor that also is essential to paving the way toward withdrawal of U. and his visit to Turkey in April was warmly received. this means intense negotiations to reassure extended deterrence commitments. Ebsco] Perhaps partly because of improved relations with Russia. given its long-established pragmatic relations and growing economic ties with Iran.” International Affairs 80. Empirically. By incorporating Ankara into its new European missile defense plans--intended to protect Turkey and other countries vulnerable to Iran's short. The United States and Russia soon will seek ratification of a follow-on agreement to START. Preventing Turkey (and any other country in the region) from acquiring nuclear weapons is critical to international security.-Turkish relationship cooled when Turkey refused to participate in Operation Iraqi Freedom.S. “The US Nuclear Posture Review and the NATO allies. contain its chief security concerns. But to get there. all of the administration's positive interactions with Turkey have been beneficial: Washington has supported Turkey's role as a regional energy supplier and encouraged Ankara as it undertakes difficult political reforms and works to resolve regional diplomatic conflicts. Obama's election has helped to mend fences. security guarantees.S. Critically.S. 11-23. Bush administration. and foster the necessary conditions for the removal of tactical U. with considerations left open for later deployments of mobile ground-based interceptors in Eastern Europe or Turkey. The U. careful diplomacy will be required to improve U. Professor at the Naval Postgraduate School. Turkey recently doubled its troop contribution to NATO's Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan--a boon to U.S. and the United States and its allies should seriously consider Turkish offers to serve as an interlocutor between Iran and the West. allied observers have expressed no noteworthy concerns about the effects of the NPR-mandated reductions in operationally deployed US strategic nuclear warheads on extended deterrence. This is consistent with a longstanding pattern in which most allies have deemed strategic nuclear matters a US responsibility and have deferred to US judgement about the appropriate . The political and strategic compasses are pointing to the eventual withdrawal of nuclear weapons from Europe--it's a strategy that certainly fits the disarmament agenda President Barack Obama has outlined.com Thursday File Link – TNWs TNW withdrawal costs tons of diplomatic capital. 2004 [David S.S. More largely. Project manager at the Ploughshares Fund and a Truman National Security Fellow AND **Research assistant at the Ploughshares Fund and a graduate student at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy. any removal of the weapons in Turkey would need to happen in concert with efforts to prevent Iran from turning its civil nuclear energy program into a military one.-Turkish ties and to assuage Turkish security concerns. In fact.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 48/148 Cross-X. During any such negotiations. including the U. in international relations at the University of Southern California (1979).and intermediate-range ballistic missiles--Washington could further shore up its military relationship with Turkey.S. Turkey would obtain a stronger footing in alliance politics. Turkey actually can play an important role in this complex process. reductions to Russian strategic and nonstrategic nuclear arsenals also would help improve Ankara's peace of mind. efforts there. Otherwise. Because Russia weighs significantly in Turkish security calculations. As Princeton scholar Joshua Walker has noted.S. Washington would risk compromising Turkey as a NATO ally and key regional partner. Ankara is in a position to positively influence Tehran's behavior. If used properly. weapons in Turkey. nuclear weapons from Turkish soil. First. Ph. “The status of U. Bell & Loehrke. policy declined through the end of the George W.org/web-edition/features/thestatus-of-us-nuclear-weapons-turkey] A prescription for withdrawal. after which Turkish support for U. if the United States and European Union task Turkey with a bigger role in the diplomatic back-and-forth with Iran. As a result. and Russian arsenals should involve forward-deployed nuclear weapons. And treaty negotiations in pursuit of further reductions to the U. it would help convince Ankara (and others) of Turkey's value to NATO and have the additional benefit of pulling Ankara into a closer relationship with Washington and Brussels. This cooperation could provide the bond with Washington and perception of security that Turkey seeks in the face of a potential Iranian bomb.
matters of national and international security are never that easy.S. If a debate emerged in the United States about the adequacy of the US strategic force posture in the context of national security (without necessarily considering extended deterrence for allied security). they argue that the weapons are "an essential political and military link" between NATO members and help maintain alliance cohesion. In the event of a Soviet assault on Europe. Turkey has been a quiet custodian of U. 11-23. Gen.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. the United States is obligated to provide and maintain the nuclear weapon capability. U.. Supposedly. Washington positioned intermediate-range nuclear missiles and bombers there to serve as a bulwark against the Soviet Union (i. Any Europeans inclined to be worried about the credibility of US extended deterrence in view of the constraints on US strategic nuclear forces imposed by arms control or budgetary limits would probably be influenced by interactions with US experts. and the Netherlands. However. arisen historically. he was met with fierce political resistance. Fifty of these bombs are reportedly PDF assigned for delivery by U.continental nuclear retaliation from Russia. 2009 [Alexandra and Benjamin. the weapons were to be fired as one of the first retaliatory shots. Today. pilots. too. James L. given the risk of prompt inter. over the last few decades. the weapons are still deployed as a matter of deterrence. These doubts have been aggravated whenever Americans have expressed anxieties about US strategic capabilities— as during the ‘bomber gap’ and ‘missile gap’ controversies in the late 1950s and early 1960s. Ever since the Soviet Union launched Sputnik in 1957 and developed the world’s first ICBMs. That means removing them from the country should be simple. Aggressors are more likely to be deterred by NATO's conventional power or the larger strategic forces supporting its nuclear umbrella. the readiness of NATO's nuclear forces now is measured in months as opposed to hours or days. allied experts and officials would probably ask questions about the implications for NATO. The Defense Department's 2008 report PDF on nuclear weapons management concurred: "As long as our allies value [the nuclear weapons'] political contribution. Guardian. (In addition to the 90 B61 bombs in Turkey. when NATO's top commander at the time. But as the Cold War waned. European doubts about America’s will to defend its allies.S. however. to defend the region against Soviet attack and to influence Soviet strategic calculations). Such a relaxed posture makes clear just how little NATO relies on tactical nuclear weapons for its defense anymore. “The status of U. tactical nuclear weapons in Turkey are without military value or purpose.) Four years later. Project manager at the Ploughshares Fund and a Truman National Security Fellow AND **Research assistant at the Ploughshares Fund and a graduate student at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy. ICBM vulnerability and ‘grey area’ systems such as the Backfire bomber in the late 1970s and early 1980s. the perceived political commitment of the United States—including its manifest intentions. some U.S. meaning nuclear-capable F-16s from other U. and forty are assigned for delivery by the Turkish Air Force.S. so. did the weapons' strategic value. the last time US policy regarding strategic nuclear forces became a significant topic in transatlantic security discussions. 2-23-2010 . Exceptions to this pattern have.S. right? Unfortunately.S. and European officials still maintain that the political value of the nuclear weapons is enough to keep them deployed across Europe. So in effect. In this event.thebulletin. and its apparent confidence in the adequacy of its strategic nuclear posture—would probably matter more in reassuring allies than the size of the force and its specific characteristics. In 2005.S. and the debates about SALT II. there are another 110 or so U. bases would need to be brought in if Turkey's bombs were ever needed. In fact. the alliance has been subject to periodic crises of confidence—in essence. Roadblocks to removal. Japan and other beneficiaries of US nuclear guarantees. the United States has removed all of its intermediate-range missiles from Turkey and reduced its other nuclear weapons there through gradual redeployments and arms control agreements. Thus. policy activists and politicians—as was the case in the late 1970s and early 1980s." Removal of TNWs strongly opposed – forces negotiations after the plan.S. but the crux of deterrence is sustaining an aggressor's perception of guaranteed rapid reprisal--a perception the nuclear bombs deployed in Turkey cannot significantly add to because they are unable to be rapidly launched. Italy. Jones. and in some circumstances more such exceptions could occur. In particular.e. fighter wing is based at Incirlik. Germany.S.com 49/148 Thursday File structure and level of US strategic nuclear forces. Bell & Loehrke. During the Cold War. and the Turkish Air Force is reportedly PDF not certified for NATO nuclear missions. tactical nuclear weapons. Turkey hosts an estimated 90 B61 gravity bombs at Incirlik Air Base. TNW removal will meet with massive controversy – requires tons of diplomatic resources. no permanent nuclear-capable U. supported the elimination of U. nuclear weapons in Europe. bombs located at bases in Belgium. nuclear weapons in Turkey”Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists http://www.org/web-edition/features/thestatus-of-us-nuclear-weapons-turkey] For more than 40 years.
partly because of resistance from some former Soviet bloc states within Nato. The group's word will not be final. Italy and Turkey. In a report due on 1 May. Anders Fogh Rasmussen." a member of the group said. but have quietly opposed moves to withdraw them from the US bases on their soil. The 11 experts will suggest that the bombs only be removed as part of a new treaty with Russia. http://www. Luxembourg and Norway for its stance.S. have been silent on the issue in recent months. Eastern European and Baltic countries are also uneasy about removing what they see as a symbol of America's preparedness to protect them against attack.S. nuclear forces in Europe and nuclear sharing with Alliance partners demonstrate a shared risk within NATO and binds America to the old continent. In order to avoid yet another split in NATO on a crucial issue. More ev. 3-30-2010 [Julian Borger. mostly on its western flank. Until now. the group of experts.com 50/148 Thursday File [Anne Penketh. Moreover. the alliance has chosen to ignore calls for change and has eschewed public debate. But this has never happened. chaired by the former US secretary of state Madeleine Albright. these political factors should not be neglected.S. but it will significantly strengthen the hand of those in the alliance who are opposed to a German-led initiative to remove the bombs unilaterally. "You cannot get rid of them without reciprocity. 2008 [Oliver. "US bombs must stay in Europe. They remain particularly interested in a strong nuclear deterrent vis-à-vis Russia and Iran. and foreign ministers from the five countries delivered a letter to the Nato secretary general. In particular. which is confronted by a dilemma over the future of short-range US nuclear weapons in Europe.guardian. the Netherlands. further points need to be taken into consideration.cfm? fa=view&id=22533&prog=zgp&proj=znpp] there are a number of political reasons for not entirely foregoing U. But Not Yet”. “U. which play host to most of the B61 stockpile. however. nuclear forces in Europe at this point in time.uk/commentisfree/2010/feb/23/nato-cold-war-nuclear-relics] It's decision time for the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. At least some NATO partners continue to value this. Senior Fellow at German Institute for International and Security Affairs. U. Belgium.S. The function of these systems is to keep the peace and to prevent wars. In addition. Germany won the support of Belgium. More ev – negotiations necessary – allies oppose removal without Russian reciprocation. . Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.co. Nuclear Forces in Europe to Zero? Yes.org/publications/index.carnegieendowment. nuclear presence gives those NATO members participating in nuclear sharing a greater say in nuclear decision making or. Guardian. Diplomatic editor. Concern over the B61 stockpile in Europe was heightened by a security breach two months ago when protesters managed to break in to an American base in Belgium where up to 20 of the bombs are thought to be stockpiled. the U. lexis] A Nato advisory group helping to draft a new strategy for the military alliance will recommend that US nuclear bombs stay in Europe. will say the roughly 200 remaining American B61 bombs on European soil should not be unilaterally withdrawn. which has an estimated 2. Italy and Turkey.000 tactical nuclear weapons. the Netherlands.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. the Guardian has learned. three At the same time. at least. The status quo has prevailed with the US saying it is waiting for an allied request to remove the B61 bombs from Germany. Nato clings to the outmoded notion that the 200 or so gravity bombs in five European countries are a necessary deterrent (against Russia. last month calling for a debate on the future of the tactical weapons. more access to information. Nato advisers say". “Burying Nuclear Relics of the cold war” http://www. Thranert. They have been virulently opposed to the removal of the weapons which they perceive as a guarantee of a US presence in Europe against Russian aggression. which has an estimated 4.000 short-range nuclear weapons).
an associate professor at Ankara's Bilkent University and an expert on arms control issues. Kibaroğlu. i." gives an in-depth analysis of the rationale behind the Turkish reluctance over the idea to scrap US nukes on its territory. “Turkey to face pressure over US nukes on its soil. based on their threat analysis. too. Italy.com/tz-web/detaylar. But Mustafa Time to Say Farewell to Nukes in Turkey?. 4/4/09). Turkey sees the US as the backbone of deterrence in the region and does not favor the idea of scrapping the nukes from its soil. under NATO nuclear-sharing arrangements. Canada and Greece ended their participation in nuclear sharing. both the political and the military leadership.e. http://www. which also possesses an independent nuclear arsenal.do? load=detay&link=174286&bolum=100 According to the US-based Arms Control Association.. Officials have understandable arguments. as to why these weapons should be retained in Turkey. told Today's Zaman that Turkish decision makers.todayszaman. Kibaroğlu states in his article that the attitude of Turkish officials toward US nuclear weapons deployed in Turkey for over four decades has been static. the Middle East and the Mediterranean. and Turkish officials have no plans to request the withdrawal. Germany. Sariibrahimoğlu ’09 (Lale. which includes the Balkans. including Turkey. Second. are for maintaining those weapons on Turkish soil to continue their deterrence capabilities in the region.” Today’s Zaman.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 51/148 Cross-X. in an article he had published by the Routledge publishing house in December 2005 under the headline "Isn't it decision to withdraw the weapons from Turkish soil. the Netherlands and Turkey) and in the United Kingdom.com Thursday File Link – Turkey Hundreds of tactical nuclear weapons remain in NATO non-nuclear states. an estimated 480 tactical nuclear weapons remain deployed in five NATO non-nuclear-weapon states (Belgium. At this stage Turkish diplomatic sources decline to comment on what Ankara's policy will be if NATO presses and finally agrees on a unanimous Kibaroğlu. *****Internal Links***** .
remind us all how crucial it is to have top-notch leadership on the ground and how quickly the ground can shift under our feet. http://www. . 2011. diplomacy in global hot spots. CNN Senior State Department Producer. Clinton had hoped to start the year reviving peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians. Bad timing for a tough test It Diplomatic focus is shifting to deal with the Egyptian crisis." She said U." Clinton told the gathering of diplomats at the State Department. Although tensions had cooled somewhat in recent months. “Can Clinton remake U. Feb 2.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 52/148 Cross-X. For two years. saying Wednesday the recent developments in Egypt and the Middle East demonstrate the critical need for America's global leadership. Labott – 2/16 (Elise Labott.S. and his ouster could paralyze.S.S. killing four people. http://hosted. February 16. 'We have to dive in. from the fragile states of Afghanistan and Iraq to Pakistan. recalled Cheryl Mills. The timing could not be worse. diplomacy needed to be more nimble. There is a tradeoff resources are limited. she has traveled the globe.ap. more open to the demands of the young. the administration's ambitious goal of achieving Palestinian statehood by the end of the year. innovative and accountable than ever before. 2011. The two countries exchanged artillery fire in November after North Korea shelled a South Korean island. The events trade-off with other issues. Mubarak's support in the effort was critical. Clinton's counselor and chief of staff. Speaking to an audience of nearly every American ambassador.'" is perhaps her toughest test yet as the nation's top diplomat. "civilian power.com/2011/POLITICS/02/16/clinton. Clinton said officials would have to accept that positions and resources would need to be shifted to where they are needed most.S. diplomacy?”.cnn.Dip Cap Finite – Egypt Egypt has taken full focus of US diplomacy.html?iref=allsearch) CJC "There were a first few moments of wonderment and then she said. and the Obama administration is struggling over how to respond. World powers just concluded a fresh round of nuclear talks with Iran that produced no meaningful movement.sweep/index. more open to technology. North and South Korea have been on a razor's edge for months. Events elsewhere in the world aren't looking any more promising. talking about the need for countries to become more democratic.recent events in Egypt and certainly in that broader region . Associated Press – 2/2 (Staff.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_HILLARY_CLINTON_GLOBAL_CHANGES? SITE=NYMID&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT) CJC Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton stressed the need for stronger U. Clinton referred to the unrest gripping the Arab world in emphasizing the importance of U. Clinton was impatient to stop careering from crisis to crisis on the peninsula and engage Pyongyang in a meaningful way that both calmed the situation with South Korea and moved North Korea toward abandoning its nuclear ambitions. if not kill. which were in free fall after a push for an Israeli settlement freeze reached a dead end. where she said the volume of false claims about the United States makes WASHINGTON (AP) -responding difficult.com Thursday File 2NC Ext . Now it is becoming reality. "What's going on today . “Clinton: Critical time for American leadership”.
diplomacy needed to be more nimble. "What's going on today — recent events in Egypt and certainly in that broader region — remind us all how crucial it is to have top-notch leadership on the ground and how quickly the ground can shift under our feet. Associated Press – 2/2 /11 (Staff.S.S. Referring to the release of confidential U. protests and technological developments that have the capacity to change the lives of millions of people. where she said the volume of false claims about the United States makes responding difficult.S. saying Wednesday the recent developments in Egypt and the Middle East demonstrate the critical need for America's global leadership.S. Feb 2." Clinton said." She said U. 2011. "civilian power. "We are all in unchartered territory. “Clinton: Critical time for American leadership”. diplomatic cables by the WikiLeaks website. Speaking to an audience of nearly every American ambassador.google. She urged ambassadors to embrace the potential of Facebook. Clinton referred to the unrest gripping the Arab world in emphasizing the importance of U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 53/148 Cross-X. diplomacy in global hot spots. Clinton said officials would have to accept that positions and resources would need to be shifted to where they are needed most. Twitter and other forums to better project the . innovative and accountable than ever before." Clinton told the gathering of diplomats at the State Department. Clinton said ambassadors needed to adapt to a "fast-changing world" that includes theft. Focus on other issues trades-off with our ability to focus on the unrest in the Middle East.com Thursday File 2NC Ext – Dip Cap Finite – Middle East Diplomatic efforts must be focused on hot spots to deal with those crises. http://www. from the fragile states of WASHINGTON (AP) — Afghanistan and Iraq to Pakistan.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jQd9Kvg9Uv2cvUt1Qs9k94zAgEuA? docId=185e3876cccf45b782bfa9245e30be45) CJC Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton stressed the need for stronger U.
national interests and expressing U.pdf] Greater international environmental regulation can increase international tension. . Each new issue in the bag weighs it down. Fall. . “The Greening of Foreign Policy. Diplomatic capital is finite – plan prevents focus on more important issues. Int'l L." Diplomatic capital is finite – issues trade off. As countries must watch over more and more issues arising in the international policy arena. and ensuring access to foreign economies (Holmes and Moore 1996. Diplomatic capital is finite – each new issue trades off with another one. J. Each new issue in the bag weighs it down. it is critically important that the United States focus its diplomatic efforts on issues of paramount importance to the nation. securing vital resources. Bozeman. Stanford University. As countries must watch over more and more issues arising in the international policy arena. concerns and priorities to foreign nations. lessening the focus on other issues and even creating conflicts between issues. and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. it is critically important that the United States focus its diplomatic efforts on issues of paramount importance to the nation. supporting our allies. "Because diplomatic currency is finite . J. Increased environmental regulations could cause countries to lessen their focus on international threats of violence such as the sale of ballistic missiles or border conflicts between nations. missions and representatives is essential in articulating U. . 427) CJC Foreign policy is a bag of goods that includes issues from free trade to arms trading to human rights. . foreign countries and officials cannot be expected to endlessly support and promote U. The daily conduct of diplomacy through U. page 46] Diplomacy is the first option in addressing potential threats to U. these priorities have been opposing hostile domination of key geographic regions. Foreign policy is a bag of goods that includes issues from free trade to arms trading to human rights. lessening the focus on other issues and even creating conflicts between issues.org/pdf/ps20. Fellow in the Center for International Trade at Heritage Foundation. xi-xvii). Schaeffer. interests and eliciting cooperation and support for those interests abroad. securing vital resources. As Schaefer writes. 2000 [Brett.S. Anderson & Grewell. and ensuring access to foreign economies. The Greening of U.S.S.com Thursday File 2NC Ext – Dip Cap Finite Diplomatic capital is finite – each new issue trades off with existing issues Anderson & Grewell – 01 (Terry L. “Because diplomatic currency is finite .S. Because diplomatic currency is finite—clearly. .S. Montana. such as the sale of ballistic missiles or border conflicts between nations. 2001 2 Chi. they will stretch the resources necessary to deal with traditional international issues. these priorities had been opposing hostile domination of key geographic regions. 46) writes.perc. Bishop Grewell is a research associate with PERC. supporting our allies. Traditionally.S.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 54/148 Cross-X.” http://www. they will stretch the resources necessary to deal with traditional international issues. Traditionally. Foreign Policy. As Schaefer (2000. Increased environmental regulations could cause countries to lessen their focus on international threats of violence. Anderson is executive director of Political Economy Research Center ("PERC")The Center for Free Market Environmentalism. concerns—it is critically important that the United States focus its diplomatic efforts on issues of paramount importance to the nation. 2001 [Terry and Bishop.
Traditionally. December 2000. “Because diplomatic currency is finite . they will stretch the resources necessary to deal with traditional international issues. Foreign policy is a bag of goods that includes issues from free trade to arms trading to human rights. As countries must watch over more and more issues arising in the international policy arena. supporting our allies. Increased environmental regulations could cause countries to lessen their focus on international threats of violence such as the sale of ballistic missiles or border conflicts between nations.” . He is a graduate of Stanford University. 46) writes. Bishop. these priorities have been opposing hostile domination of key geographic regions. “The Greening of Foreign Policy”..Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 55/148 Cross-X. former research associate for PERC. the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies. and Northwestern Law School. Each new issue in the bag weighs it down. As Schaefer (2000. http://www. . it is critically important that the United States focus its diplomatic efforts on issues of paramount importance to the nation.com Thursday File Anderson and Grewell 2000 (Terry L.perc.org/pdf/ps20. PERC Policy Series: PS-20.pdf) Greater international environmental regulation can increase international tension. J. Executive Director of the Property and Environment Research Center. and ensuring access to foreign economies. lessening the focus on other issues and even creating conflicts between issues. . securing vital resources.
Together. 2010) As part of the U. Effective strategic communication also requires the orchestration of multiple lines of operation. . DoD will continue to improve key capabilities that support strategic communication. force employment. and DoD works particularly closely with the Department of State to support State’s core role in communicating with foreign governments and international publics. and where adversaries often enjoy the advantage of greater local knowledge and calibrate their activities to achieve sophisticated information objectives. public affairs. The Quadrennial Defense Review in 2010 (QDR Report prepared for Congress. civil affairs. government's integrated civilian-military efforts to interact effectively with a variety of audiences and stakeholders. Chief among these are policy implementation. Strategic communication is essential in COIN.com Thursday File 2NC Ext – Diplomatic Capital Key – Plan Cost The plan would have to be spun to control perceptions – this requires extensive diplomatic focus. CT. Effective strategic communication requires close collaboration across interagency lines at all stages. and stability operations.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 56/148 Cross-X. February 1. and public diplomacy and engagement. the effects of these activities support national objectives. where population and stakeholder beliefs and perceptions are crucial to our success.S. information operations.
“The Sweep: The risk of democracy in the Middle East”.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 57/148 Cross-X. she joked.diplomatic.cnn. recent events in Egypt and certainly in that broader region. CNN – 2/2 (Elise Labott and Josh Levs. Tunisia and even Jordan could come to power.S. to development breakthroughs that have the potential to change millions of lives. not a culture of governance. http://www. was not able to attend the State Department meeting." "As we see. with what's going on today. killing critical diplomatic and military relationships.com/2011/POLITICS/02/02/us. http://www. the ." And he exposes the preposterous State Department delusion that because alQaida operatives "figure the Brothers are soft." Clinton called for the unprecedented "Global Chiefs of Mission" meeting several months ago. Too many cross currents and complexities. extremist Islamic factions in Egypt.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS %3A+Politics%29) CJC In the midst of mass uprisings and historic change in the Middle East.us. ambassadors from around the world.htm) CJC "For Islamists. 2011.S.com Thursday File Military K2 Secular Transition US must support the military to ensure there is time for political parties to get organized to prevent a rise of the Muslim Brotherhood. Dougherty – 2/2 (Jill Dougherty. 2011. democracy is a tool for acquiring power. That could even trigger a most dangerous war between Israel and Iran. bringing together U. forcing the closing of the Suez Canal and allowing Iran fill the vacuum.S." Even as news reports Wednesday showed protesters clashing on the streets of Cairo." Pointing to a range of challenges.S. CNN Staff. we are all in uncharted territory. Clinton added: "There are too many forces at work. “Editorial: Obama Botched Egypt — Here's How To Fix It”.S.challenges/index." she said. not just in Egypt but in the host of other countries on the verge of transformation. Investors Business Daily – 2/11 (Editorial Staff. from congressional pressure to cut the State Department budget and foreign aid. February 2. because "we Washington (CNN) -figured it would be quiet. Margaret Scobey. ambassador to Egypt. should now make the best of a bad situation. diplomats Wednesday that "we are all in uncharted territory. In a doomsday scenario.investors. 02/11/2011. (they) remind us all of how crucial it is to have top-notch leadership on the ground. “Clinton warns of 'uncharted territory' in wake of Egypt unrest”. Clinton noted that the U. http://www. But it's the only "democracy" the Brotherhood will back. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told a gathering of U. Clinton said "we have a tough road ahead. Egypt. February 2. they obviously must be moderates — so we can work with these guys!" Majority rule without liberty amounts to the tyranny of the majority — a chilling prospect in the Mideast. to WikiLeaks disclosures of diplomatic cables.egypt/index. "From the theft of confidential cables to 21st century protest movements. policy and interests in the region will largely depend on who ends up in power. Nobody expects that worst-case nightmare to come through." US must ensure a peaceful transition now to prevent the unrest from rising creating a scenario for radicalization that would trigger war between Israel and Iran. McCarthy warns that Effective diplomacy is critical to deal with the Egyptian crisis. Turning serious at the end of her remarks. Regardless of the outcome. US diplomacy is stretched to the brink and need full focus to deal with a situation that can change quickly.com/2011/POLITICS/02/02/sweep. CNN Foreign Affairs Correspondent.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS %3A+Politics%29) CJC The future of U. The U. however. some of which we are only beginning to understand.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article/562996/201102111907/Egypts-Flight. The meeting was scheduled for early February. quietly helping Egypt's military stay in power for as long as it takes to ensure that Mubarak's successor isn't an Islamist enabler. And how quickly that ground can shift under our feet.cnn.
. possibly becoming even more oppressive. which is seems to be the catchphrase of the week for Middle East analysts. That could give way to a permanent resistance that creates even more pressure for chance. Supporting the status quo could embolden leaders to hold on. further radicalizes the Arab street and creates even more anger at the United States.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.com 58/148 Thursday File Obama administration has concluded that it must try to be on the right side of history.
the Egyptian military officials leading the country through an unchartered period of political transition are stressing that they do not want to govern Egypt indefinitely or. The call-up appeared to be related to the army’s continuing need to maintain stability in the absence of the civilian police. it remains unclear exactly what part the army will play in its role as the transitional government that Egyptians have demanded should lead to elections by September. Egypt’s ambassador said this morning in a television interview that Mubarak’s health was deteriorating. apparently including its long-standing peace accord with Israel. . Since then. who demonstrated on Monday demanding higher wages and better working conditions.com/world/2011/02/14/egyptianarmy-calls-military-reservists-help-peace/) CJC The Egyptian Army today called up thousands of military reservists as soldiers cleared Tahrir Square.foxnews. Myriad youthful opposition groups have been holding almost round-the-clock meetings to craft and present a unified statement of their demands for reform to the military. it issued yet another communiqué announcing that it had suspended the constitution that has been structured to give Egypt’s president almost unlimited terms in office and authority and inhibits political opposition. There have been labor strikes across the country. Mubarak has flown twice in as many years to Germany for treatment of an undisclosed medical condition.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 59/148 Cross-X. the military government announced that it would abide by all treaties. http://www. In Washington. including Secretary of Defense Field Marshall Mohammed Tantawi. Miller – 2/14 (Judith Miller. 2011. The officers. On Saturday. including by the police. the state-run television center. The call-up also reflects continuing political tensions in the country following the forced resignation of President Hosni Mubarak. which Egyptian sources have identified as stomach cancer. In a recent meeting with western diplomats. Most of Egypt’s civilian police officers fled their posts on January 28 CAIRO. have been stressing that “they are going to do what the people want. whose elections last fall have been widely denounced by domestic and international critics as fraudulent. the diplomat said. government ministries.” the diplomat said. had repeatedly indicated that the army has been acting in good faith and has assured foreign governments that it does not seek a longterm role in governing the country. Although former President Mubarak ceded power to the army. however. They don’t want to rule indefinitely. the epicenter of the extraordinary revolution that has transformed Egypt and the political map of the Middle East. political journalist. A western diplomat said that senior army officers. A western diplomat said that it was believed that former president Mubarak was still in his residence at the Egyptian seaside resort of Sharm el-Sheikh.S. but western diplomats in Cairo said they had no independent information about the state of his current condition. added that the military had still not disclosed when the three-decade-old emergency law granting the government the right to arrest and hold people without formal charges or judicial oversight would be lifted. Egypt -in the face of overwhelming numbers of protesters throughout Cairo and other Egyptian cities. On Sunday. Embassy. one diplomat suggested. military police in their traditional camouflage uniforms and red berets have been guarding the U. be responsible for Egypt’s crushing problems. Diplomats. February 14. “Egyptian Army Calls Up Military Reservists to Help Keep Peace”. It also dissolved Egypt’s parliament. and other strategic facilities throughout the country. Egypt’s autocratic ruler for almost 30 years.com Thursday File A2: Military Not Relinquish Power Diplomats are working with the military now.
February 2. U.com/articles/2011/02/02/egypts_future_will_be_decided_by_the_milit ary. has played such a role. could weigh in as well — with the simple message that the prolonged transition envisaged by Mubarak does not seem viable.S. http://dyn. the kind of bond that can only be achieved by serving side by side in training and military exercises. But a few calls from Defense Secretary Robert Gates. Now we need to think of it as a partner in helping to consolidate Egypt’s democratic transition.may pass into the radical Islamic sphere. 2011.com Thursday File Dip. Diplomacy with the military is key to avoiding extremist from taking over the government.S-style military.S. 2011. democratic order. should be on the phone with their Egyptian comrades to offer assurances of aid and support if they choose to stand against a radical Islamic regime. Egypt .W. Quandt is a politics professor at the University of Virginia. Bush. when I was serving in the Carter administration. And we have paid for it – about $1 billion per year. U. He actively participated in the Camp David peace negotiations in 1978. would be an effective American influence on Egypt's immediate future.like Turkey before it . Whether it falls this week or in coming months. it is time for President Barack Obama to take the next step — to cash in on the close military-tomilitary relationship that has been forged between the United States and Egypt over the years. The key now is not a lot of public statements from the president. With one exception. That. similarly in the Philippines and Indonesia. But rather that it can be the guarantor of a peaceful transition to a new. So Egypt need not turn out like Iran — where the shah’s military split and went down with him. Augusto Pinochet was ousted. And there is nothing America can do to prevent that. with a few bumpy moments. the United States has completely reequipped and trained a new. Since 1979. The crisis needs to be brought to an end soon. emerge from its ranks. The military is the only institution in Egypt that can convince him to do so – and assure him the dignified retirement from power that he apparently craves. Egypt's immediate future will be decided by the Egyptian military. Many of our most senior generals have longstanding relationships with their Egyptian comrades.html) CJC It is not clear that Mubarak's regime will survive the week. In the past. In Chile." and "In the Words of Our Enemies.com/printstory. the military remains on the sidelines and allows a radical regime to take power. In Tunisia as well. if the president permits them. K2 Transition – Military Diplomacy with Egyptian military is critical to ensuring a stable transition. but the military was actually given guarantees by the new Chilean democrats that its corporate interests . He is the author of several bestselling books including "Inside the Asylum. Babbin – 2/2 (Jed Babbin served as a Deputy Undersecretary of Defense under George H.and even Pinochet’s person – would be respected as long as they did not block the transition to democracy and limited their role to upholding security. respected force in the new Egypt. Not that the new president of Egypt should. Turkey’s military.cfm?uuid=1690BD3B49D6-43ED-ADDD-DE8AD70C9948) CJC So. perhaps CIA Director Leon Panetta to their counterparts might help.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 60/148 Cross-X. These officers. a discredited dictator was eased out (with American urging) and the military stayed on to provide stability for the new democracies. Frank Wisner. the U. If. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mike Mullen. Now that military is the key to Egypt’s near-term future. we seem to be witnessing an encouraging example of the military helping with the transition to a new order. This is not an unfamiliar role for militaries in moments of transition. the hated dictator Gen. And that can only happen if Mubarak steps down. And the experienced former ambassador to Egypt.". or will. efforts to apply gentle pressure must now be followed by a more forceful message to those who can get Mubarak’s attention in a way that we have not. . Quandt – 2/2 (William B. February 2. If the Egyptian military acts soon — and in accord with the sentiment of the Egyptian people — they will emerge as a strong. He served on the National Security Council dealing with Middle East affairs in the Nixon and Carter administrations. “Time for Obama to press Mubarak”. leaving a vacuum that allowed for a great deal of post-revolutionary violence and radicalization. http://www. as is most likely.politico.realclearpolitics. “Egypt's Future Will Be Decided by the Military”. has looked to the Egyptian military as a partner primarily on regional security and anti-terrorism issues. Obama has said enough and is just about on target. and only that.
http://www.wsj. and perhaps the motivation. the U. Wall Street Journal – 2/3 (JONATHAN WEISMAN And ADAM ENTOUS. and the demonstrators are waiting for Washington to push Mr." Ms. Mubarak swept into power at Sadat's death. Staff Writers. . sees the Egyptian military as likely the only institution that can guide a smooth and inclusive transition. Two factors will control the result of the crisis that now envelops the Mubarak regime. The second is the efforts of Iran and Syria . Only the Egyptian military can ensure that the new government is not radical. and not to crackdown on the protesters. leaving it to the police and security forces to quell violence between anti-government protesters and Mubarak supporters.com/articles/2011/02/02/egypts_future_will_be_decided_by_the_milit ary.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 61/148 Cross-X. Some U. Sadat was assassinated by Muslim radicals in 1981 because of his willingness to make peace with Israel in the Camp David agreement. is watching what happens with the demonstrations. many of whom have critiqued the Obama Michele administration's stutter-step embrace of regime change in Egypt. even if only to quell the fighting. the first real peace agreement between Israel and a formerly-hostile neighbor. Since last week. has been exerting pressure on the Egyptian military not to take sides. “White House Charts a New Plan”.realclearpolitics. When Nasser died in 1970. officials believe for now the military it will stay on the sidelines. 2011. The military. and the parallel Iranian goal of establishing a Muslim caliphate hasn't taken hold in Egypt yet because of the three men who have ruled it for nearly sixty years. 2011. “Egypt's Future Will Be Decided by the Military”. experts said.html) CJC The only stabilizing force is the Egyptian military which has the power. one of his protégés. Babbin – 2/2 (Jed Babbin served as a Deputy Undersecretary of Defense under George H. Anwar alSadat. is in a difficult spot with the protestors. Dunne said. It was Sadat who braved the Arab currents to sign the Camp David Accords.com Thursday File Diplomacy with Egyptian military is critical to a stable transition government. Nasser was a pan-Arabist. The Mubarak regime is a lineal descendant of Gamel Abdel Nasser's. He is the author of several bestselling books including "Inside the Asylum. to prevent Egypt from being subordinated by its Islamic neighbors.S. fervently attempting to ally Arabs in a unified front against Israel. Bush. who seized power in 1952.W.to turn Egypt into another Syria or a satellite of Iran.com/article/SB10001424052748703960804576120064121963244. said the White House needs to convince the Egyptian army to step in. The U.S. took over. an Egypt expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and an informal White House adviser. Pan-Arabism has since disappeared except from the mind of Libya's Muammar Qaddafi. restore order and set up the new government. http://online. Israel.S.".S.html? mod=rss_Politics_And_Policy) CJC Dunne. officials believe the violence would worsen if the military intervened. leading to the 1967 Arab-Israeli war. however. February 2. Mubarak aside. The first is the Egyptian military. "Nobody wants to be the first to make the hard decisions.independently and in combination with Egyptian Islamists . FEBRUARY 3." and "In the Words of Our Enemies. likewise. U.
CNN – 2/3 (CNN Wire Staff. “Official: U.S. but at the same pushing to ensure armed extremist militias aren't allowed to claim the mantle of democratic legitimacy.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss %2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS%3A+Politics%29) CJC The real difficulty.S.S. February 3. policymakers try to prevent Egypt from following the path Iran took after 1979." Rubin said.com/2011/WORLD/africa/02/03/egypt.obama.cnn. http://www..reaction/index. Egypt talk ways to 'move' political transition forward”. when the fall of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi led to the rise of the fundamentalist regime still in power today. 2011.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 62/148 Cross-X. The U. will come in the months ahead as U. . Rubin said. needs to make clear the Egyptian elections happen "come hell or high water.com Thursday File Sustained Diplomacy Checks Extremist Rise Continued diplomacy will be critical to ensure democratic elections and prevent extremist take over.
reuters.com Thursday File Dip Cap Checks Spillover Diplomatic capital is not limited to Egypt in the crisis. “U.S.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 63/148 Cross-X. . ally -. http://www.com/article/2011/02/04/us-egypt-usaidUSTRE71175920110204? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Amid concerns that a wave of protests that erupted in Tunisia and then Egypt could spread to other Middle Eastern capitals. Obama phoned Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh to follow up his pledges of reform with concrete actions. Clinton spoke to Jordan's King Abdullah -. Feb 3 2011. in talks over possible Mubarak departure”. part of a wave of change by authoritarian governments across the Middle East seeking to head off Egypt-style unrest.another close U.on Thursday to discuss Egypt and to express support for his own recent reforms. Reuters – 2/3 (Steve Holland and Susan Cornwell Staff. The White House said Obama also told Saleh it is imperative that Yemen take forceful action against al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.S. Continued pressure on other allies for reform is critical to checking back spillover.
it is totatlly dependent on foreign oil.com/article/2011/02/01/us-egypt-usa-elbaradei-idUSTRE7107ZJ20110201? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC The U. there would of course be retaliation. State Department said in a statement.S. few understand the proximity of the crisis. these wars would most likely involve nuclear weapons. Once one nation launches a nuclear weapon. The have the influence necessary to support the transition. FNCP. and many other economies into a deep.N. http://www. C. http://www. closing the Suez Canal would cause oil price shocks and these Rising oil prices destroy the economy Whipple 7/14/2010 (Tom. The first thing that will happen after an economic collapse will be war over resources.com Thursday File A2: No Influence U. The Peak Oil Crisis: A Mid-Year Review.S. the retired head of the U.S. Department of State said. the government would go to no ends to secure more. referring to U. "Our embassy in Cairo maintains an active outreach to a wide range of political and civil society representatives in Cairo. If the United States stopped getting foreign oil. has demanded President Hosni Mubarak quit office and said he was ready to play a role in any shift to a democratic system in Egypt.com/commentary/national/6896-the-peak-oil-crisis-a-mid-year-review.reuters. Among those who appreciate that the world's petroleum resources are finite. Mohamed ElBaradei." it CAIRO (Reuters) added in the statement sent to Reuters in Cairo. extend the Hilliker evidence.S. State Department is busy brokering a peaceful transition to democracy in Egypt now. Retired 30-year CIA analyst who has been following the peak oil story since 1999. The United States currency will become useless and will have no way of securing reserves. the U." the U.com/opinions/will-an-economic-collapse-kill-you/ AD: 7-7-09 )ET Now its time to look at the consequences of a failing world economy. increasing oil prices and eventually oil shortages within the next few years are as inevitable as the sunrise.S.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 64/148 Cross-X.S. and the mission has been especially busy in the last several days to help convey our strong support for an orderly transition. nuclear watchdog. "One such contact was between the ambassador and Mohamed ElBaradei today.html) six in ten surveyed by Pew believe that the economic situation will be better soon and that the recession is only temporary. and with five or more countries with nuclear weapons *****Impact Scenarios***** ***Suez Canal Shell*** . The United States has little to no capacity to produce oil. ambassador to Cairo made contact with prominent Egyptian political activist Mohamed ElBaradei on Tuesday to discuss a political transition in Egypt. With five offical nations having nuclear weapons. Ambassador Margaret Scobey. one of the most highly respected analysts of peak oil issues in the United States.S. Most of us have no thoughts about the issue other than the current price of a gallon of gas. envoy in Egypt spoke with ElBaradei: statement” Feb 1.fcnp. if there were a war with any other major power over oil. Nearly everyone will admit that continuing oil shortages and that high (above $100 a barrel) oil prices would be devastating to the prospects for economic recovery and that persisting very high (say above $200 a barrel) oil prices would send the U. like Russia or China. long-lasting depression.com. This alone vividly illustrates how poorly the true state of the global economic situation is understood and the size of the shock that most of us are in for. Reuters – 2/1 (“U. Extinction Broward 9 ((Member of Triond) http://newsflavor. Editor of the daily Peak Oil News and the weekly Peak Oil Review. 2011. and four more likely to have them there could be major consequences of another world war. A. The problem is that few are willing to consider seriously the accumulating evidence that Interestingly.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. . The risk is so high that acting to save the economy is the most important issue facing us in the 21st century.com 65/148 Thursday File there would most likely be a world nuclear war.
S.286.com Thursday File Close Suez Canal = Price Shocks Egypt crisis is raising oil prices for fear of closing the Suez Canal. Staff.S. Senate's energy panel. National security aides at the White House were monitoring the effect the unrest and uncertainty in Egypt may have on oil and financial markets. urges Egypt's Mubarak do more. “U. U.S.77 percent. satisfied the situation in Egypt would not escalate into widespread violence or turmoil. chairman of the U. Senator Jeff Bingaman. envoy in Cairo”.reuters. http://www. Reuters – 1/31 (Steve Holland and Andrew Quinn. Egypt's Suez Canal allows the transport of crude oil and liquefied natural gas bound for the U. access to affordable energy supplies.S. as anxieties rose that protests in Egypt could spark instability across the Middle East and disrupt oil shipments through the Suez Canal. stocks rose as investors focused on the expanding U. economy and rising earnings.12. . Gibbs said no disruptions had been reported in the Suez Canal. Jan 31. a 28month high.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 66/148 Cross-X. and other countries. Brent crude oil futures surged to $101 a barrel.S. The broad Standard & Poor's 500 Index closed up 0. at 1.S. 2011. warned on Monday that the escalating protests in Egypt could affect U. If the canal were closed it would create price shocks and market disruption.com/article/2011/02/01/us-egypt-usaidUSTRE70R6A920110201?pageNumber=1) CJC The crisis is taking its toll on oil markets.
. Over an Imported Barrel”. February 1. For now. The Suez Canal and Sumed pipeline serve as vital transportation arteries for global oil shipments.nationaljournal.com Thursday File Egypt K2 Oil Markets Egypt key to global Oil flows.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 67/148 Cross-X. Harder – 2/1 (Amy Harder reports on energy and the environment for National Journal and moderates an expert blog on the topic as well. longer routes. but Pumphrey said the risk could compel individual shippers to slow down shipments there or choose alternate.000 barrels a day. 2011.com/member/daily/egyptian-unrest-leavesu-s-over-an-imported-barrel-20110131) CJC Egypt is in a unique position in the oil supply chain even though it produces only 700. “Egyptian Unrest Leaves U.S. no evidence suggests that either of those avenues will be blocked. http://www.
and Mullen spokesman Capt.com/wpdyn/content/article/2011/02/02/AR2011020206619. the Egyptian military's chief of staff.washingtonpost. U. http://www. had his second conversation this week with Lt.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 68/148 Cross-X. John Kirby said the chairman "expressed confidence in the Egyptian military's ability to provide for their country's security.com Thursday File Egypt – Military K2 Suez Canal Egyptian military can prevent the closing of the Suez Canal with US influence. “As crisis deepens in Egypt.html?hpid=topnews) CJC Concern was also growing about possible interference in traffic along the Suez Canal. both internally and throughout the Suez Canal area.S. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. 'can't dictate events'”." . Adm. Gen. February 2. through which much of the West's imported oil travels. Sami Enan. 2011. Washington Post – 2/2 (Karen DeYoung Washington Post Staff Writer. Mike Mullen.
Saudi Arabia is the oil market’s only firefighter. But if the fire station is on fire. while taming the Wahhabi establishment through charitable contributions to religious institutions worldwide. Since World War II. travels daily. there will be no one to save the neighborhood. a new oil crisis might be upon us. 2011. about 5 percent of the overall global tanker trade. And not even because it controls the Suez Canal. this could be as devastating as a second heart attack is for a fragile patient just recovering from a first one. Saudi Arabia not only is the world’s largest exporter.politico. studies show.com Thursday File Impact Magnifier: Saudi Arabia Continued instability in Egypt risks revolt and uprising in Saudi Arabia causing megaoil shocks causing the global economy to nose dive. Not because Egypt is a major oil exporter. A new oil shock would cause our economy to nose-dive back into a recession. every recession except one was preceded by a sharp rise in oil prices. it also holds 70 percent of the world’s spare production capacity. through which 1. Saudi monarchs have placated their subjects with cradle-to-grave. experts have warned about the fragility of the House of Saud. It isn’t. Egypt is relevant to the oil market because it may be a bellwether for the disgruntled masses in Saudi Arabia.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 69/148 Cross-X. To curtail their opposition. capable of supplying the market when others falter. Luft – 2/3 (Gal Luft is executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security. this social contract could face a challenge at the worst possible time — when the House of Saud’s top echelon is ill and geriatric. Egypt produces less than 1 percent of the world’s oil.com/news/stories/0211/48698. . petrodollar-funded entitlement programs. February 3. In other words. In today’s economy. Inspired by the events elsewhere in the Sunni Muslim world. For decades. If the Saudis should decide to emulate their Egyptian brethren.html#ixzz1Cz60q1YQ) CJC The demonstrations in Egypt and elsewhere in the Arab world could well be the harbinger of an excruciating oil crisis.8 million barrels. “What if Saudi Arabia erupts?”. And instability in that oil kingdom is how mega-oil shocks are made. http://www.
— rather than overt force to achieve U. action--but they fail to realize what is good about American primacy. That leverage must now be used skillfully to assist and ensure a fair election that places a legitimate government in place. selective engagers. Sun-Sentinel – 2/15 (Sun Sentinel Editorial Board. Nonetheless. And certainly as an alternative to the Iraq model employed by the George W. At the outset of this discussion. If so. A GRAND strategy of ensuring . Many claim a sense of pride that they achieved their aims non-violently. however." Remember that term? Remember the soft power vs. As such. objectives. hard power debate of recent years? The soft power phrase became vogue in the aftermath of serious divisions over the war in Iraq.com Thursday File ***Leadership Shell*** A. Proponents of retrenchment focus a great deal on the costs of U. imperil American security and deny the United States and its allies the benefits of primacy. The euphemism denotes the use of non-military tools — diplomacy. The totality of that equation of power answers the first issue.S. 2011. military commitments to centers of economic might. The ouster of Hosni Mubarak from power last week opens an opportunity to position the Egyptian "revolution" as a soft power showcase.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 70/148 Cross-X. It is the Egyptian people who are the true heroes of this peaceful uprising. Failure would undermine US soft-power moving forward. Such is the case with international relations and diplomacy — cookie-cutter. must be avoided. February 15. the benefits that stem from it are not. The United States has much influence with Egypt's military leaders. owing to aid and training the past few decades. So the debate revolves around the desirability of maintaining American primacy. And Egypt offers an opportunity for soft power — thanks to the courage and resilience of Egyptians who rallied peacefully for almost a month to prompt Mubarak's departure. Christopher Layne warned of these dangers of primacy and called for retrenchment. in any of its guises. http://articles. US must remain flexible and constantly engaged to influence the military to ensure a transition to democracy. and offshore balancers. December (lexis)] A grand strategy based on American primacy means ensuring the United States stays the world's number one power--the diplomatic. That means the next phase in Egypt will have begun — the transition to a democracy — and that will be an opportunity for the United States to employ and test "soft power.com/2011-02-15/news/fl-egyptsoft-power-obama-editorial-a20110215_1_soft-power-egyptian-people-egyptian-revolution) CJC The euphoric moment is passing. either because the United States lacks the power to maintain its primacy and should withdraw from its global commitments. US hegemony solves all problems Thayer 06 Associate Professor in the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies at Missouri State University [Bradley. And. economic and soft power capabilities. If the United States adopted such a strategy. and they are more than justified to feel vindicated. But critical issues in any discussion of America's grand strategy: Can America remain the dominant state? Should it strive to do this? America can remain dominant due to its prodigious military. As disliked as Mubarak became. In the aftermath of Mubarak's resignation.S. it's the Egypt case that stands front-and-center now.S. who want U. Those arguing against primacy claim that the United States should retrench.S. aid. The National Interest. and can't be allowed to be lost. Barring some disaster or tremendous folly. who want a modified form of selective engagement that would have the United States abandon its landpower presence abroad in favor of relying on airpower and retrenchment. in fact. that will remain the case for the foreseeable future. what would have worked — or was needed — in one country would not automatically apply to another. and Egypt's revolt will recede from the front pages. Far from it. Egypt could be the watershed for an Obama doctrine of soft power. The price and risks of primacy are reported in newspapers every day. the Egyptian military has suspended parliament and the country's constitution. or because the maintenance of primacy will lead the United States into the trap of "imperial overstretch. textbook models don't exist. B. economic and military leader.1 Those arguing for a grand strategy of retrenchment are a diverse lot. “Egypt 'revolution' opens opportunity for U. There are two seapower to defend its interests. Egypt will be a test case for US soft-power. With few exceptions. Military leaders say they will run the country until elections are held in six months. one could argue that soft power's limits were sadly on display during the protests in Iran last year. even those who advocate retrenchment acknowledge this. he rates nowhere near the likes of a brutal despot like Saddam Hussein. They include isolationists. The United States has overwhelming military capabilities and wealth in comparison to other states or likely potential alliances. etc. Bush administration. it would be a profound strategic mistake that would lead to far greater instability and war in the world. In Defense of Primacy.sun-sentinel." In the previous issue of The National Interest. It is an opportunity that can't be missed. It is their achievement that opened the window to international soft power. who want no foreign military commitments. it's critical to acknowledge that Egypt is not Iraq. soft power”.
in most cases. it is no surprise to see NATO in Afghanistan or the Australians in East Timor. including asymmetric strategies such as targeting communication and intelligence satellites upon which the United States depends. 84 are allied with America--their security is tied to the United States through treaties and other informal arrangements--and they include almost all of the major economic and military powers. at present. history shows that threats must be confronted. But China may not be confident those strategies would work. Of course. China is clearly the most important of these states because it is a rising great power. China proclaims that it will. Indeed. Never before in its history has this country. Washington cannot call a "time out".2 This is not an advantage that should be relinquished lightly. on-the-ground presence that cannot be achieved by offshore balancing. This is because threats will exist no matter what role America chooses to play in international politics. allowing the United States to shape the behavior of states and international institutions. But even Beijing is intimidated by the United States and refrains from openly challenging U. a strategy based on retrenchment will not be able to achieve these fundamental objectives of the United States. had us extensive influence in international politics. Iran. regime that is the source of . and so it is likely to refrain from testing the United States directly for the foreseeable future because China's power benefits. a key tenet of the Bush Doctrine is to attack terrorists far from America's shores and not to wait while they use bases in other countries to plan and train for attacks against the United States itself. You can count with one hand countries opposed to the United States.S. Q. A remarkable fact about international politics today--in a world where American primacy is clearly and unambiguously on display--is that countries want to align themselves with the United States. and it cannot hide from threats. power. Iran.8 to one of states aligned with the United States versus the Soviet Union. Whether they are terrorists. for example. Such influence comes in many forms. In contrast. Indeed. Indeed. Cuba--it is an anti-U. Cuba. and a big change from the Cold War when the ratio was about 1.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. while denying those common avenues to its enemies. where it can be stymied by opponents. a strategy based on primacy focuses on engaging enemies overseas. if necessary. from the international order U. U. As a consequence. in part because they shoulder some of its burdens. homeland and American global interests. In the anarchic world of the animal kingdom. Of course. as Barry Posen has noted. countries like India. And when enemies must be confronted. this is not out of any sense of altruism. U. invade Iraq or to stop proliferation through the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI ). primacy creates.com 71/148 Thursday File American primacy takes as its starting point the protection of the U. This requires a physical. The same is true of the anarchic world of international politics. The quiet effectiveness of the PSI in dismantling Libya's WMD programs and unraveling the A. stabilize Afghanistan. The other states are far weaker than China. that the global trade and monetary regimes flourish and that Washington's worldwide network of allies is reassured and protected. and the robustness of the United States' conventional and strategic deterrent capabilities is increased. or any country.S. away from American soil. resort to other mechanisms of challenging the United States. does not mean that others will respect American wishes to retreat.S. That is a ratio of almost 17 to one (85 to five). Only the "Gang of Five" may be expected to consistently resist the agenda and actions of the United States. Doing so allows the United States to operate with allies outside of the UN. Allies are a great asset to the United States. If there is no diplomatic solution to the threats that confront the United States. one of which is America's ability to create coalitions of like-minded states to free Kosovo. retrenchment will make the United States less secure than the present grand strategy of primacy. but New Delhi is friendly to Washington. Khan proliferation network are in sharp relief to the typically toothless attempts by the UN to halt proliferation. Of 192 countries. commands the "global commons"--the oceans. predators prefer to eat the weak rather than confront the strong. the world's airspace and outer space--allowing the United States to project its power far from its borders. North Korea and Venezuela. Simply by declaring that the United States is "going home". primacy is secured because America. These interests include ensuring that critical resources like oil flow around the world. rogue states or rising powers. To make such a declaration implies weakness and emboldens aggression. such as toward Iran.S. the costs of power projection for the United States and its allies are reduced. then the conventional and strategic military power of the United States is what protects the country from such threats. For three of the "Gang of Five" cases--Venezuela.S. primacy--and the bandwagoning effect--has also given are the "Gang of Five": China. but because doing so allows them to use the power of the United States for their own purposes--their own protection. thus abandoning its commitments or making unconvincing half-pledges to defend its interests and allies. Afghanistan and Iraq stand in contrast to the UN's inability to save the people of Darfur or even to conduct any military campaign to realize the goals of its charter. as we shall see. do not agree with all policy choices made by the United States. Thus. American-led wars in Kosovo.S. They so many allies. or to gain greater influence.
South Korea and Japan. The United States created this network not out of altruism but for the benefit and the economic well-being of America. Today. Without U. the likelihood of any type of conflict is significantly reduced. whether democracy in the Middle East will have a peaceful or of tilting at windmills. This economic order forces American industries to be competitive. Latin America. Indeed they do. their people would be better off. With its allies. Economic spin-offs foster the development of military technology. Now even the Middle East is increasingly democratic. Asia and the Caucasus. such as in Darfur. particularly the poorest states in the Third World.5 million Afghans. one gathers from the argument. labeling such an effort a modern form It is the obligation of Bush's critics to explain why democracy is good enough for Western states but not for the rest. Perhaps democratic Arab states would be more opposed to Israel. more transparent and more likely to want to resolve things amicably in concurrence with U. a robust monetary regime. along with the growth in the the United States has labored to create an economically liberal worldwide network characterized by free trade and commerce. Wars still occur where Washington's interests are not seriously threatened. 40 percent of them women. American power gives the United States the ability to spread democracy and other elements of its ideology of liberalism.S. Tehran or Havana could very well reorient THROUGHOUT HISTORY. democratic states are good for their citizens as well as for advancing the interests of the United In addition. By all accounts. the liberal order created by the United States will end just as assuredly. respect for international property rights. They may not yet look like Western-style democracies.S. a change of regime in Caracas. Cross-X. Critics have faulted the Bush Administration for attempting to spread democracy in the Middle East. Kuwait. And so. the Palestinian Authority and Egypt. This is not to say it fulfills Woodrow Wilson's vision of ending all war. Indeed. Second.3 So. liberal democracies are more likely to align with the United States and be sympathetic to the American worldview. spreading democracy helps maintain U. and mobility of capital and labor markets. but nonetheless. The first has been a more peaceful world. which are facilitated through American primacy. The economic stability and prosperity that stems from this economic order is a global public good from which all states benefit. diplomat and researcher at the World Bank. Abandoning the positions of his youth. Hitler succeeded the order established at Versailles. The Dark Ages followed Rome's collapse. During the Cold War. even though remnant Taliban forces threatened them. Israel and Egypt. Doing so is a source of much good for the countries concerned as well as the United States because. India and Pakistan. in Iraq in January 2005. leadership. as John Owen noted on these pages in the Spring 2006 issue. American primacy helps keep a number of complicated relationships aligned--between Greece and Turkey. Of course. Lal now recognizes that the only way to bring relief to desperately poor countries of the Third World is through the adoption of free market economic policies and globalization. Scholars and statesmen have long recognized the irenic effect of power on the anarchic world of international politics. Rather. power. Morocco. it is important to note what those good things are.S. and benefits defense as well because the size of the economy makes the defense burden manageable. it is because they are more open. where 8. peace and stability have been great benefits of an era where there was a dominant power--Rome. but democratic progress has been made in Algeria. Retrenchment proponents seem to think that the current system can be maintained without the current amount of U. Iraq. In that they are dead wrong and need to be reminded of one of history's most significant lessons: Appalling things happen when international orders collapse. U. the country itself is not intrinsically anti-American. Lebanon.S. a former Indian foreign service number of democratic states around the world has been the growth of the global economy. power." Consequently. power behind it. As country and western great Ral Donner sang: "You don't know what you've got (until you lose it). primacy. Third. leadership reduced friction among many states that were historical antagonists. increasing respect for human rights. In addition to ensuring the security of the United States and its allies. stabilizing influence on America's interests in the short run is open to question.4 As a witness to the failed alternative . The first free elections were held It was the military power of the United States that put Iraq on the path to democracy. Britain or the United States today. in general. helping to ensure military prowess. American primacy within the international system causes many positive outcomes for Washington and the world. once states are governed democratically.S. should not even be attempted. the march of democracy has been impressive. maximizes efficiencies and growth. growing democratization--is directly linked to U. Perhaps the greatest testament to the benefits of the economic network comes from Deepak Lal.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 72/148 relations.com Thursday File the problem. and. particularly war's worst form: great power wars. Washington fostered democratic governments in Europe. Indonesia and Australia. but a Pax Americana does reduce war's likelihood. who started his career confident in the socialist ideology of post-independence India. This is not because democracies do not have clashing interests. The United States has brought democracy to Afghanistan. voted in a critical October 2004 election. most notably France and West Germany. Everything we think of when we consider the current international order--free trade. States.S.
S. Before the tsunami. No other force possesses the communications capabilities or global logistical reach of the U. On the day after Christmas in 2004. for the United States humanitarian missions are the equivalent of a blitzkrieg. military has participated in over fifty operations since the end of the Cold War--and most of those missions have been humanitarian in nature. there is a clearly positive impact on Muslim opinion of the United States.S. the global paramedic and the planet's fire department.000 people. it left a lasting impression about America. military to South and Southeast Asia for many months to help with the aftermath of the disaster. after it.000 U.S. Washington followed up with a large contribution of aid and deployed the U. In fact.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 73/148 finally. Indeed. a tremendous earthquake and tsunami occurred in the Indian Ocean near Sumatra. as the world's police.000 people and leaving three million homeless. an enormous earthquake struck Kashmir. Fourth and the United States. military conducting a humanitarian mission.com Thursday File economic systems. but it also had a real impact on the War on Terror. As the War on Terror is a war of ideas and opinion as much as military action.S. volcanic eruption. Only the U. UN peacekeeping operations depend on the United States to supply UN forces. Indonesians still have overwhelmingly positive views of the United States. has been willing to use its power not only to advance its interests but to promote the welfare of people all over the globe. medical aid. American generosity has done more to help the United States fight the War on Terror than almost any other measure. The United States was the first to respond with aid. food. military. To help those in need. The U. while support for Al-Qaeda dropped to its lowest level. in seeking primacy. earthquake. the money was well-spent When people in the Muslim world witness the U.S. For the first time since 9/11. Lal is one of the strongest academic proponents of American primacy due to the economic prosperity it provides. Whenever there is a natural disaster. Two years after the disaster.S. disease treatment and prevention as well as forensic assistance to help identify the bodies of those killed. military is the earth's "911 force"--it serves. The United States is the earth's leading source of positive externalities for the world. polls of Pakistani opinion have found that more people are favorable toward the United States than unfavorable. . and in poll after poll. the United States also provided financial aid to Pakistan. sailors. because it helped people in the wake of disasters. diverting helicopters fighting the War on Terror in nearby Afghanistan to bring relief as soon as possible. Cross-X. killing about 74.S. typhoon or tsunami. soldiers. About 20. as one might expect from those witnessing the munificence of the United States. In October 2005. drought. 80 percent of Indonesian public opinion was opposed to the United States.S. The U. the United States assists the countries in need. Whether in Indonesia or Kashmir. military could have accomplished this Herculean effort. and. airmen and marines responded by providing water. 80 percent had a favorable opinion of America. killing some 300. flood. de facto. the U. military responded immediately.
These protests are remarkable. It owns Al Jazeera. With the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 74/148 Cross-X.S. the Muslim Brotherhood is likely to gain influence if free For decades. these are pleas for greater freedoms. and an important model of Islamist democracy to the Arab world. demanding an end to his regime. Continuing partnership with Egypt is critical to counterterrorism operations globally. not least because of the impassioned calls for dignity and respect by people whose governments have long treated them with contempt. In particular. The unprecedented popular demonstrations Egyptian that already expelled one Arab leader in Tunisia and may well be on the verge of unseating another regime in Egypt mark a watershed in the region from which there is no return. intelligence agencies. and possibly positioned to reprise this role as Lebanon once again contends with mounting tensions.com/wpdyn/content/article/2011/02/12/AR2011021203581. These rolling popular protests are the most dramatic examples of the region’s changing tides.S. vantage point – namely the ascendance of the militant Shiite group Hezbollah in Lebanon accompanied by Syria’s resurgence there from the nadir of its influence in 2005. and Jordan that could help spur badly-needed economic growth and job creation.-Egyptian counterterrorism work”. Instead.cfm?uuid=EC73B7BB-6C56-41A0-8F05-AD2986A02AE3) CJC President Hosni Mubarak’s speech Tuesday is unlikely to assuage the hundreds of thousands of Egyptians gathered in Cairo’s Tahrir Square. Jordan. and Yemen reflect tectonic regional shifts that U. the Arabic language satellite network that has broadcast from Egypt for the past eight days. A regional re- alignment is shifting the contours of power and influence from the Levant to the Gulf. Their demands are not the “bread and butter” issues that typify Arab world street protests. 2011. ***Terrorism Shell*** . Rather.S. policymakers must grasp if the United States is to exert influence and remain relevant in this “new” Middle East.com Thursday File Ext . a bridge to Europe. The small Arab sheikhdom of Qatar is also exerting disproportionate influence.washingtonpost. A. February 1. the contours of the U. Analysts say a more democratic Egyptian government will have to be responsive to a public that may oppose such special and close ties with Washington.S.html?hpid=topnews) CJC Egypt's government has been a critical partner for U. Now the future of that cooperation is in question. the network is now being celebrated for insuring that the world can watch Egyptians make history.politico.-Egyptian relationship may well be redrawn. Washington Post Staff Writers. sharing information on extremist groups such as al-Qaeda and working hand in glove on counterterrorism operations. Turkey has also exerted its influence to promote regional trade and investment. “Winning the future in a new Mideast”. Syria. Institute of Peace.S. The stakes are nothing less than the future of American leadership in the region. Washington Post – 2/13 (Mary Beth Sheridan and Joby Warrick. an end to torture and repression and for legitimate governments that can represent their aspirations. signals a new era in regional relations. “Mubarak resignation throws into question U. This seminal moment in the Middle East demands that the United States be bold and innovative rather than relying on a reflexive response to the changes—both dramatic and subtle—that are now re-shaping that region.com/printstory. Indeed. February 13. Once reviled by many in the West as a supporter of Al Qaeda. Other trends are not as positive from an U. http://www. They provide critical intelligence for our success to prevent attacks.Leadership US effective response to Egypt is critical to maintaining regional ties in the Middle East critical to its leadership. Turkey’s role as a key arbiter among Middle East players. 2011. Qatar has also played a key mediating role – helping to bring together Lebanon’s fractious factions in May 2008 when the country appeared on the verge of another civil war. Yet. Muslim Brotherhood takeover would close that Intel window. the United States must recognize this shifting regional alignment if it is to leverage any of these changes to its advantage. Yacoubian – 2/1 (Mona Yacoubian is senior adviser to the Center for Conflict Management at the U. Washington is facing a new reality in the Arab world. It is spearheading a free trade zone encompassing Turkey. The dynamics now spawning protests in Algeria. a staunch American ally. http://dyn. Moreover. President Barack Obama’s call to the “win the future” in his State of the Union address resonates deeply regarding America’s role in the Middle East. Lebanon.S.
policies. the religionization of politics. such as lack of a universal definition of terrorism.political. For example. therefore.. weak punishment of terrorists. nuclear and cyber] with its serious implications concerning national.. victory however long and hard the road may be: For without victory. This traditional rationalization of "sacred" violence often conceals that the real purpose of terrorist groups is to gain political power through the barrel of the gun. strengthening international cooperation].S. Thus. Alexander ‘03 (Yonah-. The Islamist group has renounced violence but is openly hostile to Israel and may call for more independence from U. including misunderstanding of the manifold specific factors that contribute to terrorism's expansion. Likewise." should be tolerated if not glorified. The conventional illusion is that terrorism must be justified by oppressed people seeking to achieve their goals and consequently the argument advanced by "freedom fighters" anywhere. "How will cooperation with the United States on counterterrorism develop in the view of these new constraints? I would argue the space will contract. Unlike their historical counterparts. Lexis. the U. Similarly.and long-term deterrence of terrorism.g. Americans were stunned by the unprecedented tragedy of 19 al Qaeda terrorists striking a devastating blow at the center of the nation's commercial and military powers. Prof. Two myths in particular must be debunked immediately if an effective counterterrorism "best practices" strategy can be developed [e. In sum. contemporary terrorists have introduced a new scale of violence in terms of conventional and unconventional threats and impact. and the exploitation of the media by terrorist propaganda and psychological warfare." The assassination of Ismail Abu Shanab . a former State Department Middle East expert who is now at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. propaganda. For instance. Even the United States and Israel have for decades tended to regard Last week's brutal suicide bombings in Baghdad and Jerusalem have once again illustrated dramatically that terrorism as a mere tactical nuisance or irritant rather than a critical strategic challenge to their national security concerns." encourage further terrorist attacks. as well as scores of other countries affected by the universal nightmare of modern terrorism surprised by new terrorist "surprises"? There are many reasons. the Hebron commander of the Islamic Jihad. Jacob) the international community failed. Why are the United States and Israel. Washington Times. despite the collapse of the Oslo Agreements of 1993 and numerous acts of terrorism triggered by the second intifada that began almost three years ago. Islamic Jihad] and secular entities [such as Fatah's Tanzim and Aqsa Martyr Brigades]] wish not only to resolve national grievances [such as Jewish settlements. right of return. chemical." Clearly.a top Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip who was directly responsible for several suicide bombings including the latest bus attack in Jerusalem disrupted potential terrorist operations. victory in spite of terror. in violation of fundamental human rights of the noncombatant segment of societies. It is not surprising.g. thus far at least. military operation in Iraq eliminated Saddam Hussein's regime as a state sponsor of terror. The argument here is that law-enforcement efforts and military retaliation inevitably will fuel more brutal acts of violent revenge. biological. . & Director @ Inter-University for Terrorism Studies. The internationalization and brutalization of current and future terrorism make it clear we have entered an Age of Super Terrorism [e. B. radiological. Osama bin Laden's international network not only opposes the presence of American military in the Arabian Peninsula and Iraq. regional and global security concerns. government that follows the rule of the Caliphs. 2001. are still "shocked" by each suicide attack at a time of intensive diplomatic efforts to revive the moribund peace process through the now revoked cease-fire arrangements [hudna]. 1940: "Victory at all costs.S. past experience provides useful lessons for a realistic future strategy. if this perception continues to prevail. recruitment. double standards of morality. there is no survival. training." said Aaron David Miller. Israel and its citizens. “Terrorism Myths and Realities”. August 28. Jerusalem] but primarily to destroy the Jewish state. weapons. that on September 11. if not eliminated completely. defused a "ticking bomb. analysts say. to understand the magnitude and implications of the terrorist threats to the very survival of civilization itself. there is the danger it will paralyze governments and thereby The prudent application of force has been demonstrated to be an effective tool for short. The impact is extinction. funding. Israel's targeted killing of Mohammed Sider. particularly in democratic societies. "give me liberty and I will give you death. but its stated objective is to "unite all Muslims and establish a The second myth is that strong action against terrorist infrastructure [leaders.are addressed. social and economic . provided the root causes of conflicts . operational command and control] will only increase terrorism. Palestinians religious movements [e.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 75/148 Cross-X.g.com Thursday File and fair elections are held. it behooves those countries victimized by terrorism to understand a cardinal message communicated by Winston Churchill to the House of Commons on May 13. The first illusion is that terrorism can be greatly reduced. Similarly. Hamas.
S. Or they might just look for ways to use Iran as a foreign-policy lever" in their relationship with the West. And the Egyptians have built up a trove of information on al-Qaeda and other radical Islamist groups in the Middle East. "A different government in Cairo may not see Iran as quite the same kind of threat. Bruce Hoffman.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 76/148 Cross-X. Washington Post – 2/13 (Mary Beth Sheridan and Joby Warrick. 11.-Egyptian counterterrorism work”. since the United States and many governments no longer wanted to be associated with it. government does not." he said.S.com Thursday File Egypt Intel = Best There is no other country that can replace Egypt’s intelligence system. The Egyptian General Intelligence Service "has the reputation of being one of the best-informed intelligence agencies on Islamist fundamentalism and its international dimensions. ally. Human rights groups have denounced the practice because of the notorious torture record of those nations' security services. “Mubarak resignation throws into question U. The cooperation became public after revelations surfaced that U.html?hpid=topnews) CJC Egypt's intelligence cooperation is extensive. Mubarak's government played an important role in containing the Palestinian group Hamas. Its security services have numerous sources in places where the U. noted that during the Cold War. the United States had a window into the Soviet Union through Iran.S. In the region. they are the best.S. then a strong U. http://www. February 13. Washington Post Staff Writers. Radical takeover means the US is fighting blind." according to Jane's intelligence information service." In addition to passing on intelligence. according to analysts. Hoffman said.S. officials secretly "rendered" terrorism suspects to countries such as Egypt for interrogation.com/wpdyn/content/article/2011/02/12/AR2011021203581. this will never be the same. "Whatever happens next. 2011.washingtonpost. 2001. Egypt's security services have worked closely on operations with their U. by blocking the smuggling of arms and militants into Gaza and supporting Israel's blockade of the strip. such as Gaza and Sudan. counterparts. "We have the same kind of window into Iran and other countries via the Egyptians. And Egypt served as a counterweight to Iran. attacks. particularly since the Sept. Hoffman said the use of rendition has been on the decline. . a terrorism expert at Georgetown University. however.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 77/148 Cross-X. 2011. The United States is heavily reliant on foreign partners. That narrative holds that authoritarian proAmerican governments should be deposed by violent jihad. director of the Middle East program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Just as WikiLeaks has been credited with setting off the revolution in Tunisia. The best the White House can do -.” said Juan Zarate of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “If the street protests lead to a peaceful. MARK LANDLER and MARK MAZZETTI. For the United States.S. With the popular revolts in Egypt and Yemen — and a government already deposed in Tunisia — American counterterrorism officials are concerned that radical factions in those countries could find a new foothold amid the chaos.especially as practiced in the Middle East -. http://www.Vice President Joe Biden told the PBS News Hour that Mubarak is not a dictator -. Or perhaps not. Foreign Policy”. the administration has done a good job of reacting. Effective diplomacy in Egypt is critical to a peaceful resolution of the crisis that renews our diplomatic credibility which is critical to fighting terrorism. “Sudden Split Recasts U. February 2." said Nathan Brown.com/2011/02/03/world/middleeast/03diplomacy.html?_r=1&hp) CJC the unfolding crisis is about much more than just a rift with an ally. Political Analyst for Politics Daily. as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell refused to criticize how the administration was handling the crisis.and appears to be doing behind the scenes -. Republican leaders backed up that assessment. Bush’s administration. Stone – 1/31 (Andrea Stone. Mubarak or President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen would deal a short-term blow to its counterterrorism campaign.politicsdaily. leaked cables about Egypt illustrate a complex relationship of subtle shifts between coddling and arm-twisting. http://www. The dual nature of diplomacy -. pluralistic transition. The same realpolitik has been in play in the relation with Yemen.com/2011/01/31/egyptian-crisis-biggest-foreign-test-yet-for-obamaadministratio/) CJC Officials were "a little bit flustered at first" by the protests -. that does huge damage to the Al Qaeda narrative.but Boston University international relations professor Richard Augustus Norton said overall." said Marina Ottaway. 1/31/2011.com Thursday File Egypt – Counterterrorism Radicalization in Egypt would undermine US counterterrorism efforts. and officials and outside experts said that losing Mr. .is communicate "the hopelessness of the situation to President Mubarak. “Egyptian Crisis Biggest Foreign Test Yet for Obama Administration”. Algeria and other dictatorial regimes in the region that the United States has taken it easy on in order to secure help for fighting terrorism.has complicated the administration's response to the popular uprising in Egypt. NY Times – 2/2 (HELENE COOPER. who was a top counterterrorism official during George W. "We have closed our eyes to Mubarak because he has been useful to us in other ways. an expert on Arab politics at George Washington University. “There’s part of this that’s dangerous to Al Qaeda.nytimes.” he said. A peaceful solution undermines Al Qaeda’s narrative.
reuters. two key U. 2011.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 78/148 Cross-X." Obama said. "Obviously. 'Let's look at Egypt's example." Obama said. allies with longtime autocratic rulers. http://www. you've got to get out ahead of change.com Thursday File Yemen Spillover Spillover is happening in Yemen. he urged all governments in the region to deal peacefully with protests. Staff Writers. "We have sent a strong message to our allies in the region saying.com/article/2011/02/15/us-egypt-iran-obama-idUSTRE71E4IG20110215? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Anti-government demonstrations also simmered Tuesday in Yemen and Bahrain. . as opposed to Iran's example'.S. Reuters – 2/15 (Matt Spetalnick and Patricia Zengerle. we're concerned about stability throughout the region. as the Egyptian military had done. as the pro-democracy fervor that toppled Mubarak rippled across the Middle East." But seizing the chance to put Iran.S. foe. “ Obama slams Iran government and praises Egypt army”. on the spot. "If you're governing these countries. Feb 15. a longtime U. you can't be behind the curve. a critical US ally.
" Hamid pointed to the "end of this so-called stability-paradigm.com/8301-503544_162-20031888503544. Already a basket case before recent street protests.html THE torturous road to peace in the Middle East becomes more excruciating every day and the cumulative effect of events in the region over the past week offer little hope for any reduction in what appear to be increasingly flammable tensions. once again. and by implication its ally. a violent murder that pitched his divided nation further into turmoil. Yemen and Jordan. "We're seeing protests all throughout the region. and now that it's happened in Egypt. any instability could fan the flames of civil war in a country that has been a pivotal test-run for democracy in the region since September 11. 2011. "Some [countries] are trying essentially to bribe their citizens. 1/31/2011. Protests have been seen in recent days in Algeria. Iran." he said. As Plante noted. Yemen. people are drawing inspirations from the Egyptian model. February 14." he said. It's really hard to tell.theage. More importantly. CBS News – 2/14 (Genevieve Kermani.com/2011/01/31/egyptian-crisis-biggest-foreign-test-yet-for-obamaadministratio/) CJC the most serious foreign policy crisis of the Obama administration unfolded at breakneck speed in the streets of Cairo and other Egyptian cities.S." stating that countries throughout the Middle East are suddenly taking new approaches to respond to their citizens' needs.cbsnews. http://www. http://www.au/news/editorial/tempers-must-remain-cool-as-the-middle-east-heatsup/2007/09/23/1190486129857. Mr Ghanem's death introduces an unwelcome element of instability ahead of tomorrow's crucial presidential elections. fear the revolution that began in Tunisia could target them next. The killing has been widely condemned by the international community and the finger pointed. “Will Egypt's Revolution Spark Domino Effect?”. Those in Saudi Arabia. At the same time. Staff Writer CBS News. Hamid added that the United States should try to adapt its foreign policy accordingly. Middle East is powder keg. though Hosni Mubarak is no longer the president of Egypt. http://www. Bahrain and Iran. National security officials huddled with Egypt experts in the White House while the president spoke by phone to leaders in the region. the al-Qaeda sanctuary is ground zero in the U." B. Jordan could be next. "Yemen could be next. Political Analyst for Politics Daily. they have kept an eye out for trouble in nearby countries. the talk now is of war. fight against terrorism. especially if an anti-Syrian candidate is elected. His death was the latest in a string of attacks against prominent critics of Lebanon's neighbour and former powerbroker Syria.com Thursday File Spillover -> Yemen = Terrorism Preventing spillover from Egypt is critical to keeping terrorist hotspots from collapsing like Yemen. the White House and diplomats at the State Department have struggled to keep up with developments.html) CJC Hamid of the Brookings Doha Center said on "Washington Unplugged" Monday that the revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia could spark similar outcomes throughout the Middle East. As arguably A. The match that lights the flame may well be last Thursday's assassination of Lebanese MP Antoine Ghanem.politicsdaily. Syria ***Instability Shell*** . Continued Egyptian protests are sparking a wave of uprising across the Middle East diplomacy will be critical to keep stability. the most notable being the 2005 killing of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri. at Syria.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 79/148 Cross-X. as we've seen in Kuwait. why can't it happen elsewhere?" Hamid told CBS News senior White House correspondent Bill Plante. any conflict will spillover The Age 9/24/2007 “Tempers must remain cool as the Middle East heats up”. 2001. Stone – 1/31 (Andrea Stone. If anything. "We're seeing protests emerge everywhere. protesters remain on the streets in that country in an effort to remind the military "who's in charge of Egypt's revolution. especially Yemen. Jordan. “Egyptian Crisis Biggest Foreign Test Yet for Obama Administration”. among others. Shadi and what I think people are saying is if it first happened in Tunisia.com.
The events in Lebanon and the debate over Iran run parallel with Israel's declaration of the Gaza Strip as "hostile territory" and Israeli opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu's confirmation that two weeks ago Israel carried out an air attack deep inside Syria. In the Middle East. and Australia must impress upon its allies that. denied any involvement. unrestrained regional conflicts can become conflicts which can draw in the United States and other major powers. on a site that it believed was being equipped for nuclear development by North Korea. There has also been speculation that the raid served as a "dry run" for a possible Israeli or US attack on Iran. and this should be carried out with haste. Beyond this. Their expansion is the best general guarantee for peace. have done in Germany. C. General Mohammad Alavi. Beyond the loss of life and productive capability in armed conflict. which he threatened to use on American targets in the Middle East.com Thursday File has. The Middle East is now overheated and potentially explosive. such as the murder of a Lebanese MP. Calls have been made for UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to launch an international probe into the bombing. announced that Iran had already prepared a plan to attack Israel if it bombed his country. This pointed admonition coincides with a string of reports emanating from Washington that the Bush Administration is running out of patience with diplomacy and is intensifying its plans for air strikes against Iran. and they pay in increased domestic frictions for the waves of migrants and refugees loosed by conflict. In the long run. there is more mileage in diplomacy than in any military solution. every tension. more so since the Iraq war. somewhat ingenuously. The French also added fuel to the fire when Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner warned the world to "prepare for the worst and the worst is war". Look at what excessive rates of migration. Meanwhile. every event. quickly entered the fray and warned against the use of force against Iran. in a part of the world where every action can easily be met with a disproportionate reaction. is connected to another. the United States and other industrial countries pay for these conflicts by losing their investments and their trade in goods and services. This war of words was further escalated when a senior commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard chose to outline the capability of his country's ballistic missiles. including hundreds of thousands of refugees from the Balkans.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 80/148 Cross-X. planned for November. a move UN officials described as an "out of control" drift to war. with its arson murders by extremists. as it has with the other high-profile assassinations of anti-Syrian leaders in Lebanon. remain mired in political haggling over what is to be brought to the negotiating table. protracted regional violence creates conditions and motivation for developing nuclear weapons which can directly threaten our security. Regional Conflicts Draw in the US and go Nuclear Jonathan Dean (Advisor on International Security Issues) 5/4/95 Union of Concerned Scientists We do not want this kind of world. The head of the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency. US efforts to ensure the success of a Middle East peace conference. But democracies and free markets cannot flourish in an increasingly interknit world unless there is some modicum of order. . These threats coincide with growing international pressure on Iran to abandon what is regarded by the West. and particularly by the US. Another suggestion is that the target was Iranian weapons destined for Lebanon's Hezbollah. as its clandestine nuclear arms program. Democracies and free markets are spreading. have dangerous consequences for the region as a whole. They pay most of the costs for humanitarian relief and rehabilitation. Talk of war further intensified after the deputy commander of Iran's air force. and it is this very mutuality that can make one act. Mohamed ElBaradei. Iran's only Arab ally. We cannot afford it.
He has been the strongman of the Middle East. against the odds and despite the violence. and however weak the civil society. the mood for change cannot be ignored. yet a week after the uprising began. http://www.com Thursday File Ext – Instability Egypt instability threatens Middle East instability. But the past few days have shown that acceptance by Egyptians of the trade-off between rights and stability can no longer be assumed. In the middle are the protesters in the square who. The lack of an organised political opposition in Egypt has become apparent in recent days. The stakes are high. The Australian – 2/4 (“High stakes in the square”. 2011. it remains far from certain whether either Hosni Mubarak or Barack Obama will be able to deliver a sustainable outcome. along with dissatisfaction with a long-term autocratic leader. the US President is signalling he must leave before that.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 81/148 Cross-X. . February 04. whose ability to balance domestic demands and regional imperatives has made his nation a secular bulwark against fundamentalist Islam and the West's strongest Arab ally.theaustralian. but however ad hoc these protests. The stability of the 80-million-strong nation and of the region is in play as protesters clash with progovernment supporters in Tahrir Square. and meanwhile he intends to oversee the transition to a new leader. are refusing to leave until Mr Mubarak surrenders office. but of the Middle East. The Egyptian President is insisting that while he will step down in September. The extraordinary battle being played out in the centre of Cairo will decide the future not just of Egypt.com. with a caretaker government working towards change. have spilled into the street. It is an uprising that appears to have taken by surprise everyone from the White House to the man being touted as the most likely transitional leader. Nobel Peace Prize winner Mohamed ElBaradei.au/news/opinion/high-stakes-in-the-square/story-e6frg71x1225999765488) CJC EGYPT'S transition will determine stability in the region. That need for stability has driven the West's approach to Mr Mubarak's 30 years in power. A combination of economic woes and mass unemployment. The cry is for democracy: the risk is to the stability that has defined Egypt for decades.
S.S.S.S. as fast-moving uprisings have unseated regimes in Tunisia and Egypt and triggered opposition rallies in Algeria. Adam Entous. In Iran. The president and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton both offered encouragement to MANAMA. Iranian protesters and aimed tough words at Tehran on Tuesday. Mr. "We also call on all parties to. the government threatened leaders of Monday's protests there with execution and made a fresh wave of arrests. .S. as it struggles to pursue its interests in the region. The White House is trying to balance its desire to encourage what President Barack Obama called Tuesday "certain universal values" with U. The developments came as security forces in Yemen. FEBRUARY 16.wsj. 2011. in marked contrast to their relative silence on Iran during the last wave of protests in Iran in 2009. Neither leader spoke Tuesday about the movements in Bahrain and Yemen.. sharpened the difficulty for the Obama administration. fought back protesters for a fifth day. The parallel protests against key allies and enemies of the U. State Department spokesman Philip Crowley put out a statement saying the U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 82/148 Cross-X. Later.com/article/SB10001424052748704409004576145711833269124. Obama praised the courage of protesters and said the Iranian regime was "pretending" to celebrate Egypt's revolt while "gunning down and beating people who were trying to express themselves peacefully" at home. and the first to pit a Shiite Muslim majority against Sunni rulers—heightening the dilemma for the U. Jordan and elsewhere. strategic interests. Wall Street Journal – 2/16 (Joe Parkinson.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0#) CJC Bahrain—The Middle East's wave of popular revolts helped spur the largest street rebellion in years in a Persian Gulf monarchy. The funeral of a demonstrator here Tuesday swelled into growing clashes with security forces amid the gleaming new skyscrapers of this financial capital. is "very concerned" about the violence and is urging the regime to investigate protester deaths as quickly as possible. Navy's Fifth Fleet patrolling the Gulf. Reporters for the Wall Street Journal.com Thursday File ME Diplomacy – Bahrain & Yemen Uprisings in Bahrain and Yemen have US diplomats on their toes to balance strategic interests. which hosts the headquarters for the U. http://online. “Wave of Unrest Rolls Into Gulf”.S. antiterrorism efforts. and Julian Barnes." he added.refrain from violence. though the president was questioned about both during a news conference.. an important ally in U.
official said on Monday. has faced growing protests in recent weeks from thousands of Yemenis. at the same time as he struggles to control southern secessionists and to cement a fragile truce with rebels in the north. http://online. Adam Entous. “U. The request includes $35 million in additional military assistance for Yemen and $69 million in economic assistance. official said the funds would be invested in a special Yemeni counter- terrorism unit that is operated under Yemen's interior ministry and now totals around 300 people. He is also under pressure to quash the resurgent al Qaeda wing in the impoverished Arabian Peninsula state. Reporters for the Wall Street Journal. Yemen is under threat of collapsing. and Julian Barnes. operations in the country could be hamstrung. Adam Entous. Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 83/148 Cross-X.S. and Julian Barnes. and development challenges" pose the greatest threat to that poor Arab nation since its 1994 civil war. The funds are unrelated to another $120 million earmarked for Yemen in President Barack Obama's 2012 budget request unveiled on Monday. the official told Reuters. FEBRUARY 16. security. speaking on condition of anonymity. head of the National Counterterrorism Center. Diplomats are working for a solution to ensure that Bahrain allows political reforms and to quell the uprising. The funding. told Congress last week he saw AQAP as the biggest current threat to the U. The group has claimed responsibility for a failed Christmas Day attack in 2009 aboard a U. a U. Stable Yemen government. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper told Congress last week that Yemen's "myriad political.reuters. This is separate from his budget. airliner and a more recent attempt last year to blow up two U. in power for 30 years. ***Bahrain Shell*** .com Thursday File Yemen Counter Terrorism Obama is pushing to double support for counter-terrorism efforts in Yemen to fight al Qaeda.S.S.S. homeland.wsj. A.-bound cargo planes with toner cartridges packed with explosives. inspired by uprisings that toppled Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak and Tunisia's President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali.S. U. or AQAP. officials believe if the current government fell in Yemen. al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. 2011. Michael Leiter. is part of a broader effort to increase pressure on al Qaeda's Yemen-based affiliate. and critical economic assistance to stabilize the country.com/article/2011/02/14/us-usa-yemenidUSTRE71D7AQ20110214? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC The United States aims to spend $75 million to double the size of a special Yemeni counterterrorism unit. “Wave of Unrest Rolls Into Gulf”. The U. http://www. FEBRUARY 16.com/article/SB10001424052748704409004576145711833269124. 2011.S. 2011. Those operations include training commandos and conducting counter-terrorism strikes. which has yet to be approved by Congress.S.S. and officials say a collapse of the weak government could give the group free rein. Staff Reporter. Feb 14. Wall Street Journal – 2/16 (Joe Parkinson. Wall Street Journal – 2/16 (Joe Parkinson. would gut US counter-terrorism efforts globally and allow the fast spread of al Qaeda. Yemen is the home to al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0#) CJC Some U. Reuters – 2/14 (Phil Stewart.S. “Wave of Unrest Rolls Into Gulf”. The money would assist counter-terrorism efforts against AQAP which is the biggest threat of terrorist attacks. to spend $75 million on new Yemen military training”. U. Reporters for the Wall Street Journal.
S. FEBRUARY 16. Iran’s efforts to develop asymmetric capabilities designed to hold U. Her research focuses on airpower. though they have stopped short of trying to remove the ruling family from power.military deployments in the Persian Gulf is to deter Iran from taking actions deemed inimical to American interests.mil/getattachment/c866a012-4a28-4627-86f8-38d0b627e710/U-S--NavalOptions-for-Influencing-Iran---Daniel-G) CJC A central focus of U." Christopher Boucek. http://online. In response. is a visible demonstration of the interest of the United States in the region and of commitment to secure its national interests and defend allies. Vol. Autumn 2009. on Tuesday suspended their participation in the body. 4. ally—to survive by meeting some demands. Bahrain collapse would result in US losing basing for the Navy’s 5th Fleet. in solidarity with the protesters. Although it lacks oil. called Al-Wafaq. a Middle East analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. Deterrence must include a clear message to Iran that it cannot alter the strategic situation in the region . The move robs Bahrain's government of a legitimate political party with which to negotiate a settlement. 5th Fleet is critical to deterring Iranian aggression in the Middle East. Virginia.S. Another concern is that an uprising in Bahrain could spill into next-door Saudi Arabia or Kuwait. critical to countering Iran and protect the Persian Gulf. While the ruling family still holds nearabsolute power. Navy to relocate .S.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0#) CJC the Obama administration fears unrest in Bahrain could undercut U.S. American planners must consider the possibility that Iran may threaten to resort to military force should the pressures on Tehran to change its behaviors become intolerable. Gouré and Grant – 9 (Dr. C. Bahrain's housing of the U. Reporters for the Wall Street Journal. 62. Dr. not remove them. Likewise. imperatives also were on display in the Egyptian revolt.navy. In addition. joint operations. and since 1991 in Kuwait. where even minor unrest might roil world-wide oil markets. The split U. http://www. for more political rights over the years. The presence of U.S. Rebecca Grant is a senior fellow of the Lexington Institute. Naval War College Review.wsj. “U. and other issues within the institute’s national security program. Gouré is a vice president with the Lexington Institute. If Bahrain's Sunni-led government were to be forced from power—something protesters haven't yet made a focus of their demands— some fear a new government might seek closer ties to Iran and force the U. where our national security is at stake. a viable Shiite opposition has gained a growing voice in the country's parliament. sometimes violently. Navy's Fifth Fleet make it a critical port for the Navy vessels deployed to counter Iran and protect the Persian Gulf. naval forces in the Gulf. NAVAL OPTIONS FOR INFLUENCING IRAN”. the kingdom has liberalized more than most of its Gulf neighbors.S. Bahrain's Sunni Muslim rulers have long faced a restive Shiite population that alleges economic and political discrimination. No. interests in a region where a significant chunk of the world's oil is produced and transported each day.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0#) CJC "The goal is to press to reform these governments. cyberspace.S. “Wave of Unrest Rolls Into Gulf”. assistance to anti-U. with 18 of 40 seats. and efforts to undermine U. But parliamentarians from the Shiite bloc.S. Wall Street Journal – 2/16 (Joe Parkinson. Adam Entous. a nonprofit public-policy research organization headquartered in Arlington. support for extremist groups in the region. allies. Shiite leaders have pushed.S. forces in Iraq. B. forces and allies in the region at risk or to contest movement in the Gulf must also be considered as potentially destabilizing. 2011. and Julian Barnes. when the administration initially tried to encourage peaceful protests while urging the government of Hosni Mubarak—a longstanding U.S.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.S.nwc.com/article/SB10001424052748704409004576145711833269124.com 84/148 Thursday File http://online. Iran’s actions of principal concern to the United States include its nuclear program. The spillover to Gulf States would result in massive oil price spikes.wsj. He is involved in a wide range of issues as part of the institute’s national security program.com/article/SB10001424052748704409004576145711833269124.
The reverberations from Princip's shots in the summer of 1914 ultimately took the lives of more than 10 million people. however much it may try. "We're in the early stages of what I would describe as the Third World War. shattered four empires and dragged more than two dozen countries into war. It may be possible to threaten preemption or retaliation with conventional forces even against a nuclear-armed adversary. The recipient of the deterrent/dissuasion message must consider either his fate too painful or his gain too small to justify his current behavior. and has absolutely no intention of negotiating in good faith to curtail its nuclear program or discuss seriously a nuclear-free MiddleEast.glo."(37) and Munya Mardoch. needs to conduct its own information campaign.S. and indeed. Egypt and Saudi Arabia face violent street protests demanding retribution against Israel — and they eventually yield. 7/23/2006. and cooperative activities with allies—that the United States can rapidly defeat Iran’s asymmetric warfare strategy. But the events he set in motion could not be so easily restrained.. The understanding that small but violent acts can spark global conflagration is etched into the world's consciousness. 2002 [John Steinbach. "the size and sophistication of Israel's nuclear arsenal allows men such as Ariel Sharon to dream of redrawing the map of the Middle East aided by the implicit threat of nuclear force.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. Steinback."(34) According to Seymour Hersh.25 The United States. But it's not hard to conjure ways that today's hot spots could ignite. It is never possible to talk to Iran about no matter what. the awareness of peace's fragility is particularly acute. bent on striking Israel's American allies.. David Bosco is a senior editor at Foreign Policy magazine. retaliation. fleet deployments. E. Two months later. Taliban militants are burning schools and attacking villages in southern Afghanistan as the United States and NATO struggle to defend that country's fragile government. Director of the .-led invasion in 2003. North Korea and Iran are developing nuclear capabilities.php? p=403&sid=95896c43b66ffa28f9932774a408bb4b] ARMAGEDDON Could This Be the Start of World War III? As the Middle East erupts. To accomplish this. "Whoever believes that Israel will ever sign the UN Convention prohibiting the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Global nuclear war. After emptying his revolver. Europe was at war. In recent years. Governments in Syria. 2006 IT WAS LATE JUNE in Sarajevo when Gavrilo Princip shot Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife. former Israeli Chief of Staff is quoted "It is never possible to talk to Iraq about no matter what. the young Serb nationalist jumped into the shallow river that runs through the city and was quickly seized." former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said last week. 2002 (http://www. Revolutionary Guards surging across the border into Iraq. The bloodshed in Lebanon appears to be part of a broader upsurge in unrest.ca/articles/STE203A.org/forums/0016/viewtopic. “Could This Be the Start of World War III?” http://usc. March 3. triggering a major regional war. he must be confronted by the likelihood that the opponent will impose unacceptable costs or negate the effects of his actions. The Israeli government decides to strike the convoy and Iranian nuclear facilities simultaneously. either alone or in combination. After Iran has recovered from the shock. and long-range missile technology is spreading like a virus. Consider the following scenarios: • Targeting Iran: As Israeli troops seek out and destroy Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon. The world is awash in weapons. In other words. Certainly about writing in Haaretz said. The heart of deterrence and dissuasion is the promise of unacceptable consequences. D.html)] The Israeli nuclear arsenal has profound implications for the future of peace in the Middle East. Jordan. there are plenty of scenarios for global conflagration. This campaign should be accompanied by clear demonstrations— through exercises. is day dreaming. Iran is relying on a strategy of asymmetric warfare —in essence. Center for Research on Globalization. Iraq is suffering through one of its bloodiest months since the U. Deterrence theory suggests a number of potential options: preemption/first strike. By David Bosco. Some see the start of a global conflict. for the entire planet. July 23."Israel's insistence on the independent use of its nuclear weapons can be seen as the foundation on which Israeli grand strategy rests. Senior Editor at Foreign Policy Magazine. Iranian sources claim that the Islamic Republic’s navy can close the Gulf.com 85/148 Thursday File through the use of force. 2006 [David. as the world watches the violence in the Middle East. There may be as much hyperbole as prophecy in the forecasts for world war. Iranian aggression causes World War 3. This hot summer. It is clear from Israel Shahak that Israel has no interest in peace except that which is dictated on its own terms. Bosco. Iran has engaged in a series of information operations intended to create the impression that it is capable of exerting its military power in the Persian Gulf. although the persuasiveness of a nonnuclear response to a nuclear threat is uncertain. together with its allies. Certain religious websites are abuzz with talk of Armageddon.globalresearch. Nuclear-armed India is still cleaning up the wreckage from a large terrorist attack in which it suspects militants from rival Pakistan. intelligence officials spot a shipment of longer-range Iranian missiles heading for Lebanon."(35) General Amnon Shahak-Lipkin. and defenses. guerrilla warfare at sea.
) Meanwhile. "."(42) Russia and before it the Soviet Union has long been a major(if not the major) target of Israeli nukes. According to Shahak. the influence of the radical right becomes stronger. All those states which feel satisfied with possessing conventional weapons alone are fated to become vassal states. spy secrets."41) and Ezar Weissman."(40) (Which requires a "nonconventional" response. the launching of missiles on to Israeli territory is regarded as 'nonconventional' regardless of whether they are equipped with explosives or poison gas. at the very least. seizing control of Israeli nuclear weapons.. requiring their own weapons of mass destruction. the unilateral possession of nuclear weapons by Israel is enormously destabilizing. nuclear targeting strategy. said in 1994. and perceive its existence as the paramount threat to peace in the region.S.. or some some of the delerious Israeli Army generals. to the massacre of Palestinian civilians at Sabra and Shatila in 1982 and beyond) the possible Israeli use of nuclear weapons should not be discounted. It is widely reported that the principal purpose of Jonathan Pollard's spying for Israel was to furnish satellite images of Soviet targets and other super sensitive data relating to U. the Israeli security system increasingly relies on the recruitment of cohorts from the ranks of the extreme right. a nuclear escalation. "Should war break out in the Middle East again.for whatever reason.com Thursday File Israeli Institute for the Development of Weaponry. Seymour Hersh warns. and even the threat of nuclear war.. "In Israeli terminology. if the familar pattern(Israel refining its weapons of mass destruction with U. In the words of Mark Gaffney.or should any Arab nation fire missiles against Israel."(38) As Israeli society becomes more and more polarized.S. complicity) is not reversed soon.."(39) The Arab states." . or some secular right-wing Israeli fanatics.while israeli jewish society undergoes a steady polarization.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 86/148 Cross-X. (43) (Since launching its own satellite in 1988... once unthinkable except as a last resort. Israel no longer needs U. Israel's current President said "The nuclear issue is gaining momentum(and the) next war will not be conventional. the existence of an arsenal of mass destruction in such an unstable region in turn has serious implications for future arms control and disarmament negotiations. as the Iraqis did.S... According to Shahak. would now be a strong probability.) Israeli nukes aimed at the Russian heartland seriously complicate disarmament and arms control negotiations and. an unindicted war criminal with a bloody record stretching from the massacre of Palestinian civilians at Quibya in 1953. long aware of Israel's nuclear program.the deepening Middle East conflict could trigger a world conflagration.cannot be precluded. . "The prospect of Gush Emunim. a perhaps unique exception being the Iraqi SCUD attacks during the Gulf War. and dramatically lowers the threshold for their actual use. bitterly resent its coercive intent. "The moral and political meaning of nuclear weapons is that states which renounce their use are acquiescing to the status of Vassal states. if not for all out nuclear war. During a future Middle Eastern war (a distinct possibility given the ascension of Ariel Sharon..
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 87/148
Bahrain is critical to US defense strategy in the Middle East. The 5th Fleet ensure oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, and deters Iran. CBS News – 2/16 (Staff; “Navy's 5th Fleet in Bahrain Eyes Unrest Warily”; February 16, 2011; http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/02/16/501364/main20032183.shtml) CJC Unrest surging through the Arab world has so far taken no toll on the American military. But that could change if revolt washes over the tiny Persian Gulf kingdom of Bahrain longtime home to the U.S. Navy's mighty 5th Fleet and arguably the Middle East anchor of U.S. defense strategy. The discontent that has spilled into the streets of Bahrain's capital, Manama, this week features no anti-American sentiment, but the U.S. has a lot at stake in preserving its dominant naval presence in the Gulf. In announcing that it is "very concerned" about violence linked to the
WASHINGTON protests, the State Department on Tuesday underscored Bahrain's strategic importance as a U.S. partner. "The United States welcomes the government of Bahrain's statements that it will investigate these deaths, and that it will take legal action against any unjustified use of force by Bahraini security forces," said department spokesman P.J. Crowley. "We urge that it follow through on these statements as quickly as possible." The 5th Fleet operates at least one aircraft carrier in the Gulf
Bahrain – 5th Fleet
Cross-X.com Thursday File
at all times, along with an "amphibious ready group" of ships with Marines aboard. Their presence is central to a longstanding U.S. commitment to ensuring the free flow of oil through the Gulf, while keeping an eye on a hostile Iran and seeking to deter piracy in the region. Anthony Cordesman, a Mideast defense specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Bahrain has security services capable of handling protesters and potentially backed by neighboring Saudi Arabia. Thousands of banner-waving protesters took over a main square in Manama
Tuesday in a bold attempt to copy Egypt's uprising. The demonstrations capped two days of clashes that left at least two people dead, and the king made a rare address on national television to offer condolences for the bloodshed. "It is a serious problem, but whether it's going to flare up any more seriously this time than all the other times is hard to say," Cordesman said. "The question is whether they can shake the security structure of the state." The implications for U.S. foreign policy and national security from the pro-democracy movements that have arisen in the Arab world - highlighted by Egypt's stunning revolution - is likely to be a topic Wednesday when Defense Secretary Robert Gates testifies before the House Armed Services Committee. Bahrain became a more prominent partner for the Pentagon after the 1991 Gulf War with Iraq; since then
it has granted U.S. forces increased access, plus permission to store wartime supplies for future crises.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 88/148
Cross-X.com Thursday File
Bahrain Spillover -> Gulf Oil States
Bahrain uprising spillover would be sectarian spilling over into critical Gulf Oil states. Wall Street Journal – 2/16 (Joe Parkinson, Adam Entous, and Julian Barnes, Reporters for the Wall Street Journal; “Wave of Unrest Rolls Into Gulf”; FEBRUARY 16, 2011; http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704409004576145711833269124.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0#) CJC Bahrain is a tiny, island kingdom in the oil-rich Gulf best known for its banking prowess, along with bars that cater to
nationals from alcohol-free Saudi Arabia next door. It pumps little crude itself, but the protests here have brought home to neighboring oil-rich capitals—Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha and Riyadh—a taste of the turmoil that had largely been limited to much poorer corners of the Arab world. It's also the first country experiencing the recent unrest in which the
often-explosive sectarian divide between Sunni and Shiite Muslims has emerged in a meaningful way. Shiites make up small minorities in other recent hot spots, including Egypt, Jordan and Yemen, but religious tensions haven't been a driving factor in unrest in those places. A sustained Shiite uprising in Bahrain would alarm Sunni rulers in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, all Gulf countries with sizable Shiite minorities. They worry about the unrest spilling across their borders, and the possibility Iran would have more opportunities to meddle in the region. Gulf rulers are often quick to blame Iran for instigating trouble among Shiite populations, though real Iranian influence in those communities has been limited.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 89/148
Cross-X.com Thursday File
Egypt -> Bahrain
Egypt has spilled over into Bahrain, threatening to out the Navy’s 5th Fleet and spillover throughout the Gulf region. NYT – 2/16 (Nicholas D. Kristof, Columnist; “Tunisia. Egypt. Bahrain?”; February 16, 2011; http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/17/opinion/17kristof.html) CJC
The gleaming banking center of Bahrain, one of those family-run autocratic Arab states that count as American allies, has become the latest reminder that authoritarian regimes are slow learners. Bahrain
is another Middle East domino wobbled by an angry youth — and it has struck back with volleys of tear gas, rubber bullets and even buckshot at completely peaceful protesters. In the early-morning hours on Thursday here in the Bahrain capital, it used deadly force to clear the throngs of pro-democracy protesters who had turned Pearl Square in the
center of the city into a local version of Tahrir Square in Cairo. This was the last spasm of brutality from a regime that has handled protests with an exceptionally heavy hand — and like the previous crackdowns,
this will further undermine the legitimacy of the government. “Egypt has infected Bahrain,” a young businessman, Husain, explained
to me as he trudged with a protest march snaking through Manama. Husain (I’m omitting some last names to protect those involved) said that Tunisia and Egypt awakened a sense of possibility inside him — and that his resolve only grew when Bahrain’s riot police first attacked completely peaceful protesters. When protesters held a funeral march for the first man killed by police, the authorities here then opened fire on the mourners, killing another person. “I was scared to participate,” Husain admitted. But he was so enraged that he decided that he couldn’t stay home any longer. So he became one of the countless thousands of prodemocracy protesters demanding far-reaching change. At first the protesters just wanted the release of political prisoners, an end to torture and less concentration of power in the al-Khalifa family that controls the country. But, now,
after the violence against peaceful protesters, the crowds increasingly are calling for the overthrow of the Khalifa family. Many would accept a British-style constitutional monarchy in which King Hamad, one of the Khalifas,
would reign without power. But an increasing number are calling for the ouster of the king himself. King Hamad gave a speech regretting the deaths of demonstrators, and he temporarily called off the police. By dispatching the riot police early Thursday morning, King Hamad underscored his vulnerability and his moral bankruptcy.
All of this puts the United States in a bind. Bahrain is a critical United States ally because it is home to the American Navy’s Fifth Fleet, and Washington has close relations with the Khalifa family. What’s more, in some ways Bahrain was a model for the
region. It gives women and minorities a far greater role than Saudi Arabia next door, it has achieved near universal literacy for women as well as men, and it has introduced some genuine democratic reforms. Of the 40 members of the (not powerful) Lower House of Parliament, 18 belong to an opposition party. Somewhat cruelly, on Wednesday I asked the foreign minister, Sheik Khalid Ahmed al-Khalifa, if he doesn’t owe his position to his family. He acknowledged the point but noted that Bahrain is changing and added that some day the country will have a foreign minister who is not a Khalifa. “It’s an evolving process,” he insisted, and he emphasized that Bahrain should be seen through the prism of its regional peer group. “Bahrain is in the Arabian gulf,” he noted. “It’s not in Lake Erie.” The problem is that Bahrain has educated its people and created a middle class that isn’t content to settle for crumbs beneath a paternalistic Arab potentate — and this
country is inherently unstable as a predominately Shiite country ruled by a Sunni royal family. That’s one reason Bahrain’s upheavals are sending a tremor through other gulf autocracies that oppress Shiites, not least Saudi Arabia. A. US-Israel relations are on the brink of collapsing. Failure by the US to appear engaged on the Egyptian crisis to prevent a takeover of the government by radicals, would be perceived by Israel as US abandonment. US must ensure continued diplomacy on the crisis to assure Israel and prevent an extremist takeover. Fabian – 2/15 (Jordan Fabian, Staff Writer at The Hill; “Israelis fretting over U.S. policy”; 02/15/11; http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/144065-israelis-fret-over-us-policy-afterprotests) CJC Israelis are worried about two more years of President Obama, and the crisis in Egypt is adding to their concerns. Israelis already have a cool relationship with Obama, who in
TEL AVIV, Israel — his first year as president called for an Israeli settlement freeze as a precondition to peace talks with the Palestinians. Obama’s 2009 speech in Cairo, which called for a “new beginning” between the West and the Muslim world, was also viewed with skepticism in Israel.
Now there are questions surrounding the leadership of Egypt, Israel’s traditional ally in the Arab world, as well as U.S. policy toward the Middle East. While Israelis uniformly recognize that the U.S.-Israel relationship is strong on the whole, many believe that the unrest in the Arab world could lead Obama to revert to familiar themes they view as hostile to their country’s interests. Former Israeli ambassador to the United States Zalman ***Israel Relations Shell***
http://www. is this: United States support for Israel is not primarily the result of Holocaust guilt or shared democratic values. 16 February. Extinction Moore 9—BA in pol sci from Wayne State (Carol. the problems the United States faces in the Persian Gulf stem from the fact that it does not have an Israel equivalent there. “I am confident that the people of Egypt can find the answers.) Russia. constructively and in the spirit of unity that has defined these last few weeks. Some believe these campaign arguments could eventually become policy differences that would be detrimental to Israel. Russia could feel compelled to attack the United States for acts like a U.org/templateC06. even though they should have learned by now. Three potential 2012 GOP candidates visited the Jewish state during the first five weeks of 2011. Six Escalation Scenarios to Nuclear World War III. Haley Barbour. but it has voiced severe worry about the possibility of the country slipping into the hands of Islamic extremists who could undo its 1979 peace treaty with Israel. the ideal realist alliance. and policymakers in both countries have said that the outcome could strain the American-Israeli relationship. nor is it produced by the machinations of the “Israel Lobby. he placed his public focus on the Egyptian people’s struggle for democracy. (See “Israeli Nuclear Threats and Blackmail ” . argued that a “point of view” has emerged in Washington that “Israel is a problem.” American support for Israel -indeed. the illusion of its unconditionality – underpins the pax Americana in the eastern Mediterranean. US-Israel relations key to Middle East stability Kramer 06 – fellow at The Washington Institute and senior fellow at the Olin Institute. B. not in the interests of Israel. based on the United States-Israel alliance. The fact that there has not been a general Arab-Israeli war since 1973 is proof that this pax Americana. In contrast.” “People who hold this view feel themselves correct to demand from Israel an endless series of dangerous strategic concessions. Harvard (Dr. when Israel makes such concessions.com 90/148 Thursday File Shoval said in an interview that a continued Obama effort to reach out to the Muslim world will be read in Israel as an effort to push Israeli interests to the side. Shoval said. from Khomeini to Saddam to Bin Laden to Ahmadinejad. nuclear attack on Iran. Given suspected U. but against European and even Russian targets. The unrest in Egypt has prompted divergent responses from President Obama and the Israeli government. simply. supporting Israel has been a low-cost way of keeping order in part of the Middle East. to anticipate my conclusion. but their comments offered a preview of the coming GOP attacks. has been a success. It has compelled Israel’s key Arab neighbors to reach peace with Israel and to enter the American orbit. . While Obama called for a “credible transition to democracy” in Egypt after President Hosni Mubarak formally stepped down on Friday.” Barbour said in an address to the Herzliya Conference. “Obama’s approach to the Middle East. and do so peacefully.php?CID=980) My answer.washingtoninstitute. None of the Republicans publicly criticized Obama. The United States has to counter them. From a realist point of view. for example. Martin. and so it must massively deploy its own force at tremendous cost. C. have already begun to reopen a split between Obama and his potential Republican rivals on the Middle East. The pressures of the campaign trail. nuclear primacy plans. in return it is rewarded with nothing but more rocket attacks.wordpress.S.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. Since no one in the Gulf is sure that the United States has the staying power to maintain such a presence over time. but to keep the world’s great reserves of oil out of the grip of the West’s sworn enemies. “The American Interest. would retaliate with thousands of nuclear bombs against the United States. managed by the United States from offshore and without the commitment of any force. [beginning with] his Cairo speech. the Gulf keeps producing defiers of America. Israel has expressed support for Egyptian democracy. when candidates often make pledges or take positions they are later pressured to act upon.com/2009/02/16/six-escalation-scenarios-to-nuclearworld-war-iii/) Israel is especially dangerous because its leaders and supporters have made clear for years that if Israel was ever devastated by any kind of war or attack it would retaliate in indiscriminate “Samson Option” attacks against not just on Muslim cities. of course.” he said.http://pakalert.” could be viewed as even more harmful to Israel. Mississippi Gov.” Fall 2006. It is. Several potential Republican presidential candidates have called his response misguided.S.
cannot stop it.N.com 91/148 Thursday File which is just a few hundred miles from its border. U. then President of Russia. Only a worldwide disarmament movement can stop it.S. it will be like giving permission for anyone to use them. everyone else feels free to do so.” The U.” to nuclear war among most or all nuclear nations–”world nuclear war. but once one does. came within three minutes of initiating a full nuclear strike on the United States because of one Norwegian scientific rocket Russians could not identify.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. 1995 Boris Yeltsin. .S. “out of control spiral. imperialism and pre-emptive strikes cannot stop it. On January 25. as the 2002 movie “Sum of All Fears” illustrates. (Details ) And U. Any use of nuclear weapons probably will lead to a rapid escalation. leaders also could be spooked by a nuclear incident. Compare it to a room full of people embarrassed to cough. Once there is any use of nuclear weapons.
threatening a decades long balance of power in the Mideast. “AT A GLANCE: Egypt's Mubarak Steps Down. . Saudi Arabia and Israel. while acknowledging there will be tough days ahead.com/article/BT-CO-20110211-713327.com Thursday File Israel Brink Israel is on edge already.html) CJC Mubarak's departure marks the beginning of a new chapter in the Middle Eastern country. European leaders. were united in calling for a swift transition to democracy. Military Takes Over”. "Egyptians have made it clear that nothing President Barack Obama said the less than genuine democracy will carry the day.wsj. United Nations chief Ban Ki-moon said the army must allow free and fair elections to get back to civilian rule. too. FEBRUARY 11. one that he thinks will be difficult but more democratic. http://online. 2011. Arab League chief Amr Mussa hailed the Egyptian people and army for their "historic achievement" and called for national consensus. in particular.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 92/148 Cross-X. Wall Street Journal – 2/11 (Staff. were put on the defensive as events rattled regional allies and foes alike." he said.
added he would assess they are not in favor of a peace treaty. expressed concern about whether the U. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper. said his comment last week was misunderstood and he only meant that the group is trying to work within secular political systems.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss %2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS%3A+Politics%29) CJC The nation's top intelligence officer sought to clarify Wednesday a comment that was roundly criticized when he said that the Muslim Brotherhood was a "secular" group. Clapper responded each time it was hard to say or he didn't know -. 2011. that it remains to be seen on Iran and he surmised they supported bringing ***Muslim Brotherhood*** . http://www. Clapper said in an opening statement Washington (CNN) -to Congress. CNN Reporter. intelligence committee knew enough about the Brotherhood's positions. speaking to the Senate Intelligence Committee. The group itself is not secular. February 16. Sen. ties to Iran and the smuggling of weapons into Gaza.comment/index. Diane Feinstein.S.cnn.com Thursday File A2: Brotherhood Not A Threat Your evidence is citing Director of National Intelligence Clapper. Feinstein wanted to know the stated positions of the group with regards to the Middle East peace process.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 93/148 Cross-X. the chair of the committee.com/2011/POLITICS/02/16/clapper.but he weapons into Gaza. D-California. “Intel chief says his Muslim Brotherhood remark misunderstood”. who has clarified his statements about the Muslim Brotherhood. indicating that they are NOT a secular organization. In a series of questions to Clapper. Benson – 2/16 (Pam Benson.
the Brotherhood — an Islamist group that has held as many as 20% of the seats in Egypt's parliament in recent years — is vowing to increase its influence on daily life in Egypt. The Brotherhood would seek "the preservation of AIRO — Ali Abdel his office in South Cairo. http://www.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 94/148 Cross-X. the "thump thump" of a cleaver could be heard just outside the unadorned office. A man was hacking up a calf on a wood stump. requiring Muslim women to cover their heads and shoulders in public and killing Muslims who leave their faith. chattering in Arabic at aides in dark suits and discussing honor" by stoning adulterers. sat at a laminate table in plans for Egypt under democratic rule. As he spoke late Saturday. answering phone calls.com/news/world/2011-02-14-1Aegypt14_CV_N. A bright puddle of blood ran into the street as the animal was slaughtered for a feast celebrating the Brotherhood's hopes for the future.htm) CJC Fattah. “Ideology shadows fight to rule the new Egypt”. punishing gays. arranging the meat on a plastic sheet on the patio floor. "We basically want a government that will take on the demands of the people that were clear in the revolution of Tahrir Square.com Thursday File Muslim Brotherhood Pushing For Control Muslim Brotherhood is pushing to take control of the government through elections. Reporter at USA TODAY. whose forehead bore the calluses of those who prostrate themselves five times a day in prayer. spokesman for the long-banned Muslim Brotherhood. In the scramble for power among groups of various political identity after last week's ouster of President Hosni Mubarak.usatoday. 2/14/2011." Abdel Fattah said. said Abdel Fattah. "Sharia law does not differ from the demands of the people. Dorell – 2/14 (Oren Dorell." .
says they would get 50%. he said "attacks based on religion are wrong. Mohamed Hossam Eldin Abdel Wahid. Some conservative Muslims consider themselves more moderate and would not go along with an extremist program." "A Muslim who does not practice regulations of Islam. considers himself a conservative Muslim. 2/14/2011. which would be enough to control the government.htm) CJC How strong is the Brotherhood? Estimates vary on the political support the Brotherhood has in Egypt. . a party could do a lot with such a percentage of the parliament's seats. http://www.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 95/148 Cross-X.usatoday. who's an extremist.S. Mohamed Zarea. a lawyer and human rights worker who deals with members of the Brotherhood." he said. Wael Nawara of Al Ghad says the Brotherhood would gain 15% of the seats in an election today. He says he memorized the Quran during a 20-year detention under Mubarak's emergency laws. “Ideology shadows fight to rule the new Egypt”. Dorell – 2/14 (Oren Dorell. a U. 56. last month toppled the government of the majority pro-Western parties in Lebanon and installed its own candidate as prime minister. Reporter at USA TODAY. Makram-Ebeid estimates the Brotherhood would gain "only" 30% of parliament seats in elections involving 22 opposition parties she counts as vying for power. Selling scented oils to men outside a mosque in Giza. They would get 30% if elections were held now.-designated terrorist group and enemy of Israel. who keeps a large red tinted beard and a floor-length ochre robe. Hezbollah did this despite having just 57 of the 128 seats in Lebanon's parliament. under pressure from the Bush administration on human rights issues.com Thursday File A2: Muslim Brotherhood Not Win Enough Seats Muslim Brotherhood would not have to win the majority. However.com/news/world/2011-02-14-1Aegypt14_CV_N. allowed direct elections for the first time. The movement gained 20% of seats in the parliament in 2005 when Mubarak. is a sinful Muslim. Hezbollah.
and expressed their willingness to launch a coup to keep the shah in power. who they assumed would open corruption investigations that would lead back to the military. William Sullivan. with big swollen cities like Cairo and Tehran containing both the most and least educated people in the country: a relatively narrow educated elite and a broad mass of slum-dwellers. Obama is speaking bluntly with Mubarak about the need for change. backing. State thought the shah was doomed and that Washington needed to reach some accommodation with the Khomeini camp. just how Iranian demographics would shape the coming upheaval. but also moderates. and Lebanese emergencies.S. In December 1978. ought to do about Iran. government confused and demoralized him.” As Carter reacted to events in Iran. which held the most promise in late 1978. But decades of repression and fake elections had crushed Iran’s secular parties. “I can’t tell another head of state what to do. with big populations. Ball’s moderates were used-up hacks who wouldn’t stand a chance against Khomeini’s mobs. Only the Shiite clergy—like the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt—remained intact and powerful as a political force. and to flood the streets with troops and tanks. Egyptian. beginning with Iran—that the Soviets might hijack. Brzezinski reopened his attack. rifts in the U.” Carter refused to have that conversation with the shah. Just before the regime began to totter in 1978. What they needed—all seven declared—was unflinching U.-supplied militaries. Geoffrey Wawro is the General Olinto Mark Barsanti Professor of Military History and Director of the Military History Center at the University of North Texas.” America’s wisest course now would be to “work out the transfer of power to responsible hands before Khomeini comes back and messes everything up. The generals feared the Islamists. The president has called for an “orderly transition.thedailybeast. The shah was finished. “You can tell a friend what you think. More than just the right words will be needed. The seven Iranian generals Huyser met with expressed their readiness to kill “100.” and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has warned there must not be “a takeover that would lead to oppression.000 Iranians” if necessary. Frozen by opposing views.S. Vance was horrified. He is the author of Quicksand: America’s Pursuit of Power in the Middle East. or even topple the shah. turn affairs over to a reliable government.” to borrow Hillary Clinton’s phrase.S. read classified and unclassified reports from all sources. What Huyser discovered was interesting. The revolutions in Cairo and Tehran have much in common. vomited out in “a national regurgitation by the Iranian people.com Thursday File Egypt – Influence K2 Avoid Islam Rise American support is critical to ensure a transition that does not give power to the radical Muslim Brotherhood. Wawro – 1/31 (Dr. http://www. to reassure allies and deter the Soviets. and serve as a distant “regent” until things cooled down.” to re-arrest political prisoners. Brzezinski spoke of an “arc of crisis” in the Middle East—a wave of unrest in Islamic countries. when he predicted. The strategic threat of that—then and now—was outlined by the U. to shut down the press.” Ball urged Carter to tell the shah to leave Iran.” Carter protested. The Obama team should be looking closely at Washington’s awful mismanagement of the Iranian revolution of 1978-79 to make sure they do not repeat the errors of the Carter administration. Carter appointed 68-yearold George Ball to sift through conflicting reports to determine just what the U. Carter’s CIA had predicted that nothing much would change in Iran through 1985: “Iran is not in a revolutionary or even pre-revolutionary situation. particularly to a man who is cut off from the normal sources. Carter sent General Robert Huyser to speak with the senior Iranian generals and gauge their attitude. and warned Carter that Brzezinski was recommending a course that would end in “1. pro-Khomeini demonstrations broke out in every Iranian city. Jordanian. Since most Iranians were “poorly educated and highly ignorant. The president must prop up the shah. the U. The letter was never sent. Both simmered under the rule of corrupt strongmen who had held power for three decades. to restore the shah or an authoritarian regime. The error in Tehran in 1979 was one of omission. Hosni Mubarak and Shah Muhammed Reza Pahlavi. was undone by fights between Cyrus Vance’s State Department and Zbigniew Brzezinski’s National Security Council. No.” he reminded the president.” others thought tens of thousands.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 96/148 Cross-X. and set up a moderate caretaker government. purge the fundamentalist opposition.000 deaths. Administration hardliners wanted the shah to “get tough.S. Both dynasts. were regarded in Washington as “family friends.” a clear reference to Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood. strong internal security services and powerful. “1/31/2011. but must hold on to police powers and military and foreign affairs. and prevented Washington from acting swiftly and decisively to steer the Iranian revolution in a moderate direction. Washington did nothing. Today in Cairo. and then met with Carter to render his verdict.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-01-31/egyptian-protests-mirror-1979revolution-in-iran/?cid=bs:archive7) CJC So far the Obama administration seems to be getting it right on Egypt. would have to vest its hopes in the Iranian military. When the shah left Iran in January 1979 to have his cancer treated. there was no credible moderate opposition to undergird a generals’ coup. Although Brzezinski and Brown in .” Ball persisted. Another wave of riots swept through Tehran in January 1979. Carter expressed astonishing diffidence. “Geopolitics is not a kindergarten class. with astonishing accuracy. “One of the obligations of friendship is to give advice. Both were triggered by new media—audiocassettes in Iran. Both had complex societies. who is surrounded by sycophants.S. Ball worked hard for two weeks.” any truly democratic movement would “be in a reactionary obscurantist direction under the clergy. Fortunately. ambassador in Tehran. President Obama is facing similar hard choices. U.S. ambassador in Tehran in 1970. Brzezinski drafted a letter for Carter to send to the shah that baldly enjoined him to use force against the demonstrators. Noting Carter’s hesitation. Twitter and Facebook in Egypt—and both exploded in major regional states. Such a plan.S. Brzezinski (joined by Defense Secretary Harold Brown and Energy Secretary James Schlesinger) thought the shah might relinquish some domestic authority. Iranian generals met with the U.” The Carter administration was as startled by the revolution in Tehran as Obama was by the wave of revolutions from Tunis to Cairo. Just as we today worry that fundamentalists might hijack the Tunisian. which was still loyal to the shah.
Mubarak should turn power over to a respected politician bolstered by Omar Suleiman’s reformed security services. Instead. Embassy could no longer be protected. The imperial military’s hour had seemingly arrived. which has vexed and weakened American policy for more than 30 years. officers. rather than in a country. “When the shah fell. It wasn’t. exiled.S. He must move fast and deal bluntly with President Mubarak. the generals declared “neutrality”. Sullivan cabled Washington on February 27. Just as Egyptian fighter jets are orbiting Cairo in a show of strength. He and his subordinates recommended the embassy staff be reduced to “six officers and a vicious dog. . The army stood down and let the demonstrations disarm it. most were arrested. and America has only an auxiliary role. The Egyptian army must be restrained. he relayed the request to Washington. our Iran policy fell with him.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 97/148 Cross-X. Khomeini’s komitehs— Islamic militias and revolutionary courts—were rounding up the shah’s courtiers. Carter must have wished he had heeded the warning. but Carter remained inert. refusing even to dispatch a carrier to the Persian Gulf. credible opposition moderates like Mohamed ElBaradei must be empowered to move the country forward without a breakdown in security or an Islamist coup. Carter decided that Iran was Khomeini’s.” President Obama is now holding our Egypt policy in his hands. and that the U. warning that anti-American sentiment was boiling over in the streets and the press.” an American colonel named Colin Powell observed from the Pentagon. and helped usher in the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Brown urged Brzezinski—Carter refused to roll the dice. The president still effectively controlled the Iranian generals and might have fashioned a moderate reform coalition under their aegis. Carter selected a negative program: merely cultivating contacts with moderate Islamic clergy. all our investment in an individual. or shot. the Iranian air force did the same in early February 1979. But the hand we played in 1979 was self-nullifying. and politicians in the vain hope that they would counter Khomeini’s radicalism and step in if the ayatollah’s movement unraveled.com Thursday File Washington and General Alexander Haig at NATO headquarters in Belgium were still for unleashing the Iranian military against the ayatollahs—“give the officers a go-ahead.” None of this will be easily accomplished. came to naught. The Iranian generals threw in the towel.” (When the embassy was actually seized eight months later.) With Washington in retreat. “In Iran. mixed “provisional revolutionary government. The generals made a last appeal to Ambassador Sullivan for support. who will loosen their grip but not permit the Muslim Brotherhood to knock over a “national unity government” as easily as Khomeini crushed Iran’s first.
February 1. but that’s a risk. That could have a disastrous impact on an economy that has just begun picking up steam. but it controls the Suez Canal.com/printstory.” Oil traders have begun factoring in that risk: Since Friday.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 98/148 Cross-X. the market doesn’t think it’s all that likely. If a new Egyptian government. .S. prices have soared about 7 percent. POLITICO – 2/1 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico and Mike Allen is the chief political correspondent for Politico and Laura Rozen is a reporter at POLITICO. “Egypt: Worst scenarios for W. Muslim Brotherhood. http://dyn.” former Obama car czar Steve Rattner. driving per-barrel prices to $120 or more and gas prices at the pump well beyond $4 a gallon. pinch point of the Mideast oil supply. 2011.H.”. when the first huge demonstrations rocked Cairo. especially if any such blockade includes Egypt’s critical Sumed pipeline.politico. tankers would be forced to undertake the six-to-eight-week trek around the Horn of Africa. “The question is whether that supply gets cut off at some point. “Right now. experts say. up to more than $92 per barrel. perhaps one dominated by the anti-U. decides to block the canal. speaking on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” said Monday.cfm? uuid=DE7516BA-D472-D8ED-D73BCE853D37CED6) CJC Egypt produces no oil and is hardly an economic powerhouse with global reach.com Thursday File Brotherhood = Price Spikes Muslim Brotherhood control risks cutting off Oil from the Middle East devastating our econ recover and causing Oil Spikes.
contributor. ranging from US foes like Syria to staunch US FORTUNE -allies like Jordan and Saudi Arabia. “Biggest corporate stakes in Egypt's power shift”. Fortune 500). Fortune 500). What is clear is that US economic interests in the entire region would be at risk if Egypt falls under the veil of Islamic fundamentalism. who won a Nobel Peacce Prize for his leadership of the IAEA. The revolution that swept Iran and seems to be festering in Egypt.com Thursday File Brotherhood = Econ Collapse Muslim Brotherhood coming into power would collapse Western economies. They provide support for older US-made military equipment. The US supplies wheat. So if Egypt falls to an Islamic theocracy. There are of course very large differences between Arab Egypt today and Persian Iran 32 years ago.com/2011/01/31/news/international/egypt_economic_interests. like the F-4 and F-16 attack fighters. but noteworthy energy sector. The protests in 1978 and 1979. Such a scenario could occur in Egypt. The United States is a major exporter to the country. Wall Street has wiped $5 billion off Apache's market value since the riots began amid fears that a new government could expropriate their land concessions. 2011. is now leading the opposition groups' newly formed steering committee. have banded together to oust Mubarak. like in Egypt. corn and soybeans to Egypt averaging around $2 billion a year. It's not without reason. ADM (ADM. That is equivalent to about 50% of the estimated value of Apache's Egyptian assets. much of which is recycled back to US defense contractors like Boeing (BA. The US also delivers $1. Fortune 500). and has several western energy companies working in the country.fortune/index. Disparate Egyptian opposition groups. That could hurt the sales of companies like ConAgra (CAG. It has no formal connection with Washington but it does have strong ties to Tehran. from liberals to Islamic fundamentalists. Apache's large investment in Egypt has not gone unnoticed by the markets. It has said it wants to establish Sharia (Islamic) law in the country and ban all women and Christians from government (Christians make up 10% of the population of Egypt). who is critical of President Obama's reluctance to call for Mubarak's resignation.cnn. . A confluence of economic changes in both countries helped widen the divide between the rich and the poor. but the economic backdrop is similar. which led to the establishment of an anti-western Islamic Republic. seemed to catch the world. The largest and most organized of the opposition groups is the Muslim Brotherhood. A possible revolution in the most populous and influential nation in the Arab world shouldn't be taken lightly given the possibility of an anti-Western government coming to power in Cairo. Egypt now accounts for a quarter of the company's earnings. did not come about overnight. is pushing for a peaceful transition to democracy. They eventually turned on their former coalition partners and wiped them out. European oil companies like the UK's BP (BP) and Italy's ENI (E) have had a major presence in the country for decades drilling for oil and gas.3 billion in military aid to Egypt. and also sell Egypt new weapons. Fortune 500). The scenes from the protests in Egypt look eerily similar to ones that swept Iran 32 years ago. It could lead to the expulsion of US and Western companies from Egypt and threaten the stability of more secular Arab states. Northrup Grumman (NOC. General Dynamics (GD. Fortune 500). Lockheed Martin (LMT. http://money. with a total investment of more than $7 billion over the past 17 years. Western business in an Islamic theocracy But a revolution can quickly turn. Egypt also has a small. which has alleviated some fears on Wall Street and Washington. In Iran. Fortune 500) and Cargill.ht m) CJC The recent demonstrations in Egypt have rocked world markets and sent investors scrambling for the exits. Mohamed El Baradei. It's not yet clear what kind of government would emerge if the current autocratic regime led by President Hosni Mubarak were to fall. it will probably spell bad news for the western companies operating in the country. especially the United States. totally off guard. the Islamic fundamentalists had the poor firmly in their grasp and used their mass to overwhelm the other groups.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 99/148 Cross-X. and the US State Department. They seemed to have sprung out of nowhere but offered some hope that the dictator ruling the country would fall to a more democratic regime. January 31. bringing about the angst that we see today. It is by far the largest US investor in Egypt. Fortune 500). But no company has more exposure to the energy sector in Egypt like Apache Corporation (APA. making up around 10% of Egypt's total imports. The most powerful group with the largest following usually comes out on top. CNN Money – 1/31 (Cyrus Sanati. which funds their activities. El Baradei. a banned Islamic resistance movement that is not on the friendliest of terms with the West. Fortune 500) and Raytheon (RTN.
Obama is committing the same sin that Dwight Eisenhower did in Cuba and Jimmy Carter did in Iran. their 154 million almost equal the combined population of all the other nations in North Africa and the Middle East. Until now. with each new theocratic conquest destabilizing its neighbor. to be sure. they could control the region. where one nation after another falls to Islamism. The Muslim Brotherhood will take over if it gets its foot in the door. If Egypt falls. February 2.html) CJC Obama better hope that the crowds clamoring for an overthrow of the Hosni Mubarak regime really do achieve a functioning liberal democracy rather than an Iranian-style theocracy. The Muslim Brotherhood is allied closely with Hamas. It would literally open the door to a theocratic Iranian-style empire stretching from Morocco to Iran. He needs to understand that the radical Islamists mean us ill and that any effort to appease them is bound to fail. "Who lost China?" Obama may well have to explain how and why he lost Egypt. But losing Egypt to the grip of Islamic fundamentalism would be a huge blow to the United States. to Israel and to the entire Western world. We have had some terror attacks. he may find himself confronted with a Middle Eastern version of the old domino theory. Any coalition with the Brotherhood is as likely to remain secular as Adolf Hitler's early coalition with Paul von Hindenburg in Germany was likely to stay non-Nazi. His re-election hopes may be doomed if Iran takes over. Morris – 2/2 (Dick Morris. Remember that Iran has a population of 79 million and Egypt has 75 million. Just as Richard Nixon helped to discredit Harry Truman President and defeat Democratic presidential nominee Adlai Stevenson in 1952 by trumpeting the question. loses office over a foreign policy blunder.) and President Bill Clinton. but none have risen to the level of a cataclysm. 2011. whose domestic policy initiatives are coming apart at the seams.com Thursday File Brotherhood = ME Instability Allowing the Muslim Brotherhood in the door would open all of the Middle East to extremism undermining American leadership globally and completely destabilizing the Middle East. We now face the possibility that a radicalized Egypt could be Obama's gift to the globe. Obama will have permanently damaged America's vital interests.com/articles/2011/02/02/will_obama_lose_egypt_108751.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 100/148 Cross-X. Trent Lott (R-Miss. If he permits Egypt to slip through our fingers and go over to the Iranian sphere of influence. “ Obama Following a Very Risky Strategy With Egypt”. If Egypt and Iran were to work in tandem. he will pay for it politically in 2012. Together. it is a wolf in sheep's clothing. To the extent that it masquerades as a peaceful body.realclearpolitics. Imagine if this president. Look at what Carter's abandonment of the Shah has cost the world and is likely to cost it in the future. Americans have regarded Obama's flirtation with the Arab street with a mild concern that he may be too naive in his understanding of that part of the world. By failing to back Mubarak. a former political adviser to Sen. . But his policy of appeasement toward radical Islam has yet to have any bad consequence. Inspired by an Islamic takeover in Egypt. http://www.
At first they presented themselves as entirely neutral. 2011. between the Mubarak regime and the "spoilt children of Egypt's middle classes" -." Let me update that. when he is now well placed for the succession to Hosni Mubarak. Then. was chief UN atomic weapons inspector -- .realclearpolitics. http://www. with the support of the Muslim Brotherhood.because the Egyptian army is distancing itself from him -. The latter have reached for power fairly cleverly. Warren – 2/3 (David Warren. Only now that Mubarak's position is untenable -.the man who ran interference for the Iranian regime. February 3.com/articles/2011/02/03/face_in_the_crowd_108750.are the valves fully opening.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 101/148 Cross-X.html) CJC Four days ago I wrote that.inspired by the riots in Tunisia to try their luck in Tahrir Square. “Face in the Crowd”. "until fresh factors come into play. Political Reporter. "No one can predict what will come of" the Egyptian demonstrations. Mohamed ElBaradei -.com Thursday File Muslim Brother Hood Pushing For Power Muslim Brotherhood is rising to take power. and is the Muslim Brotherhood appropriating the revolution. against Bush. at Friday prayers. many imams apparently told their flocks to go swell the demonstrators' ranks. But this support remained cautious.
according to administration officials. In fact. push Obama — a president who vowed to improve relations with the Arab world — back into a much closer alliance with Israel after two years of tense relations with the traditional U. perversely.cfm?uuid=DE7516BA-D472-D8EDD73BCE853D37CED6) CJC The most obvious danger. ally in the region. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been meeting around the clock with advisers.politico. POLITICO – 2/1 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico and Mike Allen is the chief political correspondent for Politico and Laura Rozen is a reporter at POLITICO. .”. February 1.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 102/148 Cross-X. a more militant Cairo could wipe out whatever remaining hope lingered for an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal. gaming out the various scenarios — ranging from chillier relations to A new Egypt-Israel conflict Nasser-type saber rattling in Cairo.S.” Munayyer added. is that any new Egyptian regime will almost certainly adopt a more militant stance toward its partner in peace for more than three decades. “Egypt: Worst scenarios for W. 2011. Israel. http://dyn.” Even if Egypt and Israel don’t come to blows. “But the illusion of a real peace with Israel is over.com/printstory. “We’re not talking about another war.com Thursday File Brotherhood = No MEPP Radical takeover will undermine Egypt-Israel Peace Accords and gut any possibility of a successful MEPP.H. And that could. one of the reasons the Egyptian army remains so popular among its people was its near success against Israel during the bloody Yom Kippur war in 1973.
but popular protests do not always bear fruit -.theaustralian. . especially given the divergence of views between Washington and Cairo about the timetable for change and the role that should be played by Mr Mubarak.com. that "the militaries will remain the ultimate powerbrokers" in the Middle East. how long before anarchy forces the hand of the military? Some have wanted to present Tahrir Square as the "Berlin Wall" of the Middle East. appear to be looking for an interim government that would minimise Mr Mubarak's role and give everyone a chance to regroup.that will be most crucial in determining what happens next. as commentator Daniel Pipes wrote in this newspaper on Wednesday. but ensure that in the process extremist Islam does not secure a foothold. The army did not intervene in the chaotic events in Tahrir Square yesterday as pro-Mubarak riders on horses and camels clashed with the anti-government protesters. anxious that immediate elections would open wide the door to the Muslim Brotherhood (outlawed but experienced in running independent candidates at earlier elections) in the absence of other strong opposition parties. The challenge for Egypt's powerbrokers is to increase popular participation in the life of the nation. The Americans.witness the deposition of the shah in 1979 that ushered in the Islamic republic in Iran. Time is needed anyway for changes to be made in the constitution to allow for more democracy. The 82-year-old leader is the sticking point. The military will be a critical partner in the transition government and checking back extremist rise. whatever the timing. The respected Middle East commentator and former US ambassador to Israel. if not the protesters -. even when successful. 2011. A post-Mubarak Egypt is inevitable.which continues to position itself on the side of the people.au/news/opinion/high-stakes-in-the-square/story-e6frg71x1225999765488) CJC The immediate question is how to move forward. argued on ABC TV Lateline on Wednesday night that Egyptians will not accept a process overseen by Mr Mubarak because they "simply do not trust him to ensure there will be a free and fair election". Immediate elections would result in a takeover by the Muslim Brotherhood. it appears likely. While Egypt is still in flux. The US must ensure that there is a transition government. The Australian – 2/4 (“High stakes in the square”. it is the military -. February 04. In the short term. But with the clashes continuing overnight. http://www.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 103/148 Cross-X.com Thursday File Transition K2 Check Muslim Brotherhood Timing is everything.witness the failures of the 2009 Green Movement in Iran and the Cedar Revolution in Lebanon in 2005. Martin Indyk. are unpredictable -. Those impatient for change should remember that revolutions.
that it grew to prominence because of its alliance with Adolf Hitler and that -." said John Podhoretz of Commentary magazine. the Director of National Intelligence. James Clapper. described the brotherhood as "largely secular.which have been dominated by young people who seem genuinely interested in freedom and democracy -. Kelly – 2/13 (Jack Kelly. http://www.ht ml) CJC When journalists tout the brotherhood's "moderation" because it has publicly eschewed violence." The Muslim brothers are bad guys.it is the father of all current terror groups in the Middle East. Obama administration cluelessness about the brotherhood is dangerously reminiscent of Carter administration policy toward Iran in 1979. In testimony to the House Intelligence Committee Thursday. “Beware the Muslim Brotherhood”. Confusion about the Muslim Brotherhood is not limited to journalists.as the Obama administration was." "This is one of the most reckless and irresponsible statements ever made publicly by an American official at a critical and delicate moment. ambassador.realclearpolitics. a former Marine and Green Beret.according to Kuwait's education minister -. But they seem to have been as surprised by the protests -. Andrew Young.N. was a deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force in the Reagan administration. They are based on ignorance of reality.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 104/148 Cross-X. President Jimmy Carter's U. ***Foreign Aid*** .com/articles/2011/02/13/beware_the_muslim_brotherhood_108878. 2011. they fail to mention that its goals are similar to al-Qaida's. February 13.com Thursday File A2: Muslim Brotherhood Not Threat Claims of Muslim Brotherhood moderation have no warrants. once described the Ayatollah Khomeini as "some kind of saint.
warned annual U..reuters. foreign aid. 2011.” Congress will cut aid if military fails to ensure transition. “The Egyptian people are demanding a meaningful and irreversible transition to democracy.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 105/148 Cross-X. Patrick Leahy (D. but his continued role in Egypt's transition is unrealistic. senator who oversees foreign aid said Mubarak had no credibility to oversee Egypt's transition.S. including peace with Israel.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-obamaidUSTRE7109F720110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC U.html) CJC Congress could cut back the aid if Egypt moves in a direction contrary to U. Military Takes Over”. “I urge the Egyptian military to faithfully support and secure the coming process of political change in Egypt. http://www.wsj. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. http://www.com/article/BT-CO-20110211-713327. 2011. who chairs the Senate appropriations subcommittee that approves U. FEBRUARY 11." said Senator Patrick Leahy.com Thursday File Congress Cut Aid Congress would cut aid if it felt Egyptian Military was going the wrong direction. said.” said Arizona Senator John McCain.S. Failure for Obama to get results means that Congress will take action and cut off aid to Egypt. who heads the committee responsible for yearly spending on diplomacy and international aid.). “Public Praise.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military. Wall Street Journal – 2/11 (Staff. “AT A GLANCE: Egypt's Mubarak Steps Down.S. Later Friday. withholding aid to the government. the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee. 2011.bloomberg.S. aid to Egypt could be "at risk" if Cairo's military thwarts a transition to democratic rule. Feb 13. a Democrat. "We (the United States) should do what we can to support a transition to democracy including. and he renewed a threat to withhold aid from Egypt if it necessary to push for democracy there. Vt. Reuters – 2/1 (Caren Bohan and Andrew Quinn. reporter for Bloomberg News. Staff. lawmakers also reacted with skepticism to Mubarak's announcement.S. if it becomes necessary. http://online. “Obama says change in Egypt "must begin now"”.html) CJC Sen. Some . "President Mubarak's decision to stand down from future leadership of the government is welcome." Leahy. The U. policy. Feb 1.
For now. which has been running at $1. WASHINGTON (Reuters) - . lawmakers are unlikely to slash American aid to Egypt quickly.com Thursday File Aid: Peaceful Transition K2 Prevent Cut US won’t cut aid now. Staff. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell. the Republican-run House of Representatives seems more cautious than the Democratic-run Senate about cutting U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 106/148 Cross-X.reuters. aid to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's government. when lawmakers will get an opportunity to make changes. That could lead to a battle over withholding aid to Egypt later this month. Much depends on events between now and then.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC U.5 billion a year. but if the issue is not resolved they are willing to gut it. http://www.S. Feb 2. but they are watching to see where unrest there leads. congressional aides and analysts said on Wednesday. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”. 2011.S. Views of the Egyptian turmoil vary on Capitol Hill.
com/news/opinion/editorials/la-ed-egypt-20110203. “Egypt after Mubarak”. . Obama’s advisers believed that the informal checks and balances that had kept Egypt firmly in America’s corner would continue with or without Mubarak.com/whitehouse/a-white-house-policy-on-egypt-evolves-20110201) CJC The Brotherhood had done a poor job of recruiting young Egyptians. press secretary Robert Gibbs seemed to imply that further U.the United States supplies $1. That is why they did not fight protestors. siding with the police would be tantamount to abandoning the U. its membership ranks were fewer than polls showed. and on Sunday Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton finally announced U. The White House has rightly hinted that that aid is now at stake. The military connection is the only way that US-Egypt relations will remain and aid is the lynch-pin.S. February 3.latimes. 2011. 2011. Obama turned his intelligence briefing into a seminar about Egypt. including well more than $1 billion for the Egyptian military. educational and economic ties between the two countries built over many years. The army.com Thursday File Aid K2 Leverage Aid to Egypt gives the US direct influence over the military. Washington Post – 1/31 (Editorial Staff. which had reached gale-force size.story) CJC A policy of the Mubarak regime that is likely — but not guaranteed — to survive the transition is Egypt's intimate relationship with the United States. (and the military aid that accompanies it).0.nationaljournal. “Misconceptions about the Egyptian crisis”.S.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 107/148 Cross-X. LA Times – 2/3 (Staff. and it mostly reflected outrage over the slowness of the United States to dissociate itself from Mubarak. 2011. flows directly to them.com/wpdyn/content/article/2011/01/31/AR2011013104517. aid to Egypt would be contingent upon the country’s reactions to the protests. On Friday morning. both sides in Egypt have been aggressively appealing for support from the Obama administration. which is a much respected and highly influential institution. a legacy of the SadatBegin peace accord. and there are strong cultural. The strong secular undercurrent in most major Egyptian cities kept the Brotherhood in check as much as the heavy-handed security forces did. Aid is critical to the US continuing to have relations. support for a "transition" to "real democracy. January 31. The military was the key: most of the more then $1 billion in annual aid.S. http://www. and for good reason . During his mid-day press briefing Friday.html) CJC The most misguided assertion in Washington holds that the United States lacks the capacity to influence the outcome of the Egyptian crisis. February 1.6393912. http://www." Both in public and in every other communications channel. US has the necessary influence to shape the outcome in Egypt because of its Aid package. In fact. Anti-Americanism has been a minor theme in the protests. “A White House Policy on Egypt Evolves”.washingtonpost.S.5 billion in annual aid to Egypt. Publicly insinuating that future money would be conditioned on how Egyptian leaders handled the protesters demand was less of a direct threat than simply the application of direct leverage: Mubarak would have to tread lightly when ordering his military to backstop his police. for the military. Ambinder – 2/1 (Marc Ambinder is the White House Correspondent for National Journal Group. values the relationship with the U. http://www. the administration should be making explicit the connection between future funding for the Egyptian military and that democratic transition. peppering his foreign policy team with questions about the relationship between Egyptian police and the military.
Staff.S. The unrest in Egypt and other Middle Eastern countries could put the brakes on billions of dollars of arms sales to the entire region. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”.com Thursday File Aid K2 Arms Sales Cutting aid to Egypt puts the brakes on billions of dollars in regional arms sales. http://www.reuters. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell. . Feb 2. 2011. analysts say.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Most U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 108/148 Cross-X. aid to Egypt is military and has gone for things like M1A1 Abrams battle tanks and F-16 fighter aircraft.
com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Democratic Senator Patrick Leahy chairs the Senate subcommittee in charge of foreign aid and has taken a harder line on continuing aid to the Mubarak government. “The welcome restraint and professionalism shown by the Egyptian Army so far is a testament to the long relationship between our two countries." he said. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”. Congress will cut aid to speed up the transition. which he says has "no credibility" to oversee the transition to democracy.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Leahy added the Obama administration could stop spending money already appropriated by Congress for this year.J. February 2. "But it's certainly not going to be spent on a government that must leave and is dragging its feet on leaving." "Those would be very appropriate areas to spend American aid. Staff. Feb 2. http://www. if it becomes necessary. And obviously. House and Strohm – 2/2 (Billy House is a Congress writer for National Journal. Chris Strohm covers homeland security and intelligence for National Journal Group. “Post-Mubarak." he said.” “But we should do what we can to support a transition to democracy including. the administration can stop that money at any time. Leahy suggested on Wednesday that Washington should think about economic aid for a new government in Cairo.reuters. referring to the Mubarak government. "There is money in the pipeline." Leahy told Reuters Insider Television. Questions of Aid Get Complicated”. http://www. 2011.nationaljournal. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell. Feb 2. Leahy said.” he said. 2011.reuters. .com/member/daily/post-mubarak-questions-of-aid-get-complicated-20110201) CJC In his own statement. http://www. "There are stipulations in terms of the behavior of recipients of our assistance. Crowley said last week the United States would continue to monitor how Egypt's military responds to the crisis -suggesting that a major army intervention to put down protests might trigger a change. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”. withholding aid to the government. and our values." he added. Staff. our policies. Senate is willing to gut aid quickly. if aid is used in a way that is contrary to our laws. State Department spokesman P.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 109/148 Cross-X. 2011. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell. saying he hoped for a transition to a government that would address joblessness and hunger and "the suffering of the people. we'll make adjustments as we need to.com Thursday File Aid Cut Quickly Obama can cut off aid in the pipeline immediately if there is not a peaceful resolution.
Representative Kay Granger. The Democratic-run Senate will act on the funding bill after the House.reuters.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 110/148 Cross-X. "It is critical that we are deliberate about the actions we take.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC The House Republican who chairs the committee on foreign aid.S. Senate will wait to act until after house which means they can reconcile the difference. urged caution this week in deciding what the U. 2011. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”. response to events in Egypt will be. . and might take a different approach. Staff.com Thursday File Egypt – A2: No Aid Cut – Budget Aid can be cut in the coming budget." Granger said. Feb 2. The chambers would then have to work out their differences. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell. I am continuing to monitor the events on the ground very closely. http://www. Egypt has been a moderate influence in the Middle East and has a peace agreement with Israel.
" State's Crowley said on Monday. military aid to Egypt. It is based on the work that we've done together. Our relationship has been a stabilizing one. “U. urges restraint in Egypt. which runs about $1. 2011.S.reuters. officials have indicated it would not be quickly cut off.S. Feb 2.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 111/148 Cross-X.com Thursday File Egypt – Aid On Table US is putting the question of Aid to Egypt on the table. Reuters – 2/2 (Arshad Mohammed and Andrew Quinn.S. http://www. struggles for policy”.3 billion per year. would be reviewed as events unfold but U.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-idUSTRE71175920110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC The White House said last week U. "Our assistance to Egypt is longstanding. ***Iran*** .
The administration’s response to protests in Tehran on Monday largely mirrored its public statements three weeks ago after demonstrators filled the streets of Cairo. adversary and the subject of United Nations sanctions.com Thursday File Diplomacy = Iran Transition Continued focus for our diplomacy efforts is critical in the Middle East. the Iranian regime has learned from last year’s protests and the outcome in Egypt — lessons that could prompt the government to launch a more systematic and unbridled crackdown on dissent. Phillip – 2/15 (Abby Phillip is a staff writer.” said Anthony Cordesman.html) CJC A second test of President Barack Obama’s Middle East foreign policy is brewing in the streets of Tehran this week. which drew flak for sending mixed messages during the crisis.” Maloney said. “We wish the opposition and the brave people in the streets across cities in Iran the same opportunity that they saw the Egyptians seize. make the situation in Iran more unstable.com/news/stories/0211/49513. day in and day out. “There’s no real way to predict which of the pressures for change [in the Mideast] are going to become serious and reach a crisis point. http://www.” By contrast. “What I think was so powerful. “Basic problem that you face here is that you have to deal with this country by country. “They’re watching for this. .” Administration officials are monitoring events in Iran closely and attempting to gauge whether the latest street demonstrations will gain momentum. The Obama administration also learned from the Egyptian revolution. a national security policy chairman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Let me very clearly and directly support the aspirations of the people who are in the streets in Iran today. Unlike Mubarak. near-certain threat of government-backed. which the White House openly admitted came as a surprise.” At the same time. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a U. US must stay focused on a country by country basis. It ensures stable transitions between regimes. the diplomatic scenarios in Iran are dramatically different.S. which lessens the extent to which the State Department and the White House have to conduct diplomatic back flips in their public statements.H. some of the same activists who led Iran’s failed Green Revolution in 2009 are taking to the streets again — and facing the same.politico. potentially. was simply that this came out of nowhere. “Iran has been in a period of turmoil now for a full 18 months. The uprising in Iran can be successful with continued effective US diplomacy. Unlike Egypt’s scenario. But the absence of a diplomatic relationship. Following the popular uprising in Egypt that toppled the 30-year authoritarian regime of President Hosni Mubarak. unpredictable and. who served as an Iranian affairs adviser in the Bush-era State Department.” said Suzanne Maloney. Maloney said. unrest in Iran has festered for more than a year — which analysts believe has prepared the Ahmadinejad regime to respond swiftly to threats of opposition. more dangerous. violent repression. has been careful to speak with a unified voice — including efforts to spread democracy to Iran. “W. and what set the Egyptian government so off-kilter. takes Egypt wisdom to Iran”. The White House and the State Department. coupled with near-complete suppression of the media.” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told reporters Monday.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 112/148 Cross-X. 2/15/11.
com Thursday File ***** Affirmative Answers***** .Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 113/148 Cross-X.
http://www.S. The eight-member committee. including expanded use of opinion research and better designate more administrative positions to overseas public affairs sections to reduce the administrative burden.S.bloomberg. lobbyist for Egypt who’s now a scholar for the Middle East Institute in Washington. which met with Defense Minister Hussein Tantawi on Tuesday. they’ll make the decision based on what is best in the Egyptians’ national interest.thesunnews. 4 September 2003. assistance.” The Egyptian military may also have acquired some of its professional standards and . also includes a Christian supreme court judge. US does not have influence over Egyptian military. 14. Feb. GAO 2003 (Government Accountability Office. because of its relative professionalism and its view of U.S. reporter for Bloomberg News. GAO-03-951. a widely respected former judge and scholar who was once a secular leftist but later became one of the most foremost thinkers of what Egyptians refer to as the "moderate Islamic" political trend and is seen as a bridge between the movements.com Thursday File ***2AC F/L*** 1. unleashed by the turmoil. officials and analysts say. and assessment of U. execution. CAIRO -which it ensured through widespread election rigging. a former lawmaker from the Brotherhood seen as part of its reformist wing. one of its members Mohammed Hassanein Abdel-Al. • consider ways to collaborate with the private sector to employ best practices for measuring efforts to inform and influence target audiences.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military. “Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood plans political party”. The panel is to draw up changes at a breakneck pace .”. The panel's convening indicated the military was trying to push ahead quickly with a transition after Mubarak resigned Friday in the face of 18 days of unprecedented popular protests that massed hundreds of thousands. “U.S. Two members on the panel said the next elected government could further change the document if it choses.html#storylink=mirelated) CJC Egypt's long banned Muslim Brotherhood said Tuesday it intends to form a political party once democracy is established. Diplomatic capital doesn’t trade off – the state department can collaborate and hire more people to avoid any tradeoff.html) CJC The Egyptian military can afford to exercise its independence from foreign interference. now suspended by the military. assistance as part of a two-way bargain.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 114/148 Cross-X. Feb 13. the fundamentalist group that was the most bitter rival of Mubarak's regime. “In the end. 2011. Sun News – 2/14 (LEE KEATH and HAMZA HENDAWI . 2011. • strengthen efforts to train Foreign Service officers in foreign languages. http://www. Non-Unique: Muslim Brotherhood has already been included in the current negotiations and elections are coming fast. to be thrown out completely and rewritten to ensure no one can once again establish autocratic rule.com/2011/02/14/1981307/egypts-us-envoy-says-mubarakmay. a former U. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. we recommend that the Secretary of State • develop and widely disseminate throughout the department a strategy that considers the techniques of private sector public relations firms in integrating all of State’s public diplomacy efforts and directing them toward achieving common and measurable objectives. along with other judges and legal experts. even after more than 30 years and billions of dollars of U. • 3. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. coordination. Public Diplomacy: State Department Expands Efforts but Faces Significant Challenges: GAO-03-951. 2. “Public Praise. The panel is headed by Tareq el-Bishri.Associated Press reporters. The military is now also urging an end to labor strikes that spread wildly across the country Sunday and Monday. “The fact that we have a good relationship means that they’re going to listen to you.to end the monopoly that ousted President Hosni Mubarak's ruling party once held. and • program adequate time for public diplomacy training into State’s assignment process. The initial changes may not be enough for many in Egypt calling for the current constitution. public diplomacy efforts. a legal scholar told The Associated Press. The military's choices for the panel's makeup were a sign of the new political legitimacy of the Muslim Brotherhood. Among the panel's members is Sobhi Saleh. use of existing research.within 10 days .” said Graeme Bannerman. EBSCO) To improve the planning.S. not that they’re going to follow you. as the country's new military rulers launched a panel of experts to amend the country's constitution enough to allow democratic elections later this year.
and maybe one part diplomacy.S. Miller. http://www. wars of choice.nationaljournal. There were. What's more. The Obama administration wants to do this kind of stuff. “The End of Diplomacy?”. personnel. nuclear proliferation.S. right. and economic power toward impressive ends. Pakistan. It's not from the big that the president's problems come. “Mubarak's Departure Raises Tough Questions for U. . Afghanistan. the early 1970s. but there were moments (1945-1950. Feb. But there were also brilliant achievements: the Marshall Plan. No more. And it has done pretty well in managing the big relationships with Russia and Europe. http://www. these are the easy ones. 2011. and Somalia. But frankly. for advanced training. 4. there was a time when American diplomacy did big and important things. military educational institutions such as the service war colleges and the National Defense University. The US does not have influence on the events in Egypt. 2-3-2010 [2/3/2010. the problems are four parts military. a competent American role in the acceleration and management of the end of the Cold War. NATO.Kashmir. the W. it seems. Arab-Israeli peacemaking -. however -. Pakistan. and India) can't be of much help. doggedly pursuing Middle East peace. America is a good deal weaker.foreignpolicy. it's from the small. Foreign Policy. Yemen. political." There's always a danger in idealizing what once was or seemed to be in order to make a point about the present. Effective American diplomacy may well be going the way of the dodo. America never ran the world (an illusion the left.S. Israel”. including the Vietnam War and out-of-control CIA operations. Aaron David. The world's gotten complicated.S. 1. conventional diplomacy has either not been tried or not been very successful. extractive regimes are unable to control their own territory and cut deals with anti-American elements and place their security and political concerns first. achieving dramatic breakthroughs with spectacular secret diplomacy seems a world away. Dreazen – 2/1 ( Yochi Dreazen is a senior correspondent for National Journal Group covering military affairs and national security. In garden spots like Iraq. administration is handicapping itself with a dysfunctional bureaucratic setup that makes it harder to focus and find its footing.com/articles/2010/02/03/the_end_of_diplomacy?page=full] MGM Back in the day. though it has had its share of problems with China.. president who has gone further to engage Iran than any of his predecessors is watching any hope for diplomacy being ground up by a regime under siege in Tehran. détente with the Russians. Even in areas where diplomacy might seem to work on paper -.America has been in a diplomatic dry patch.com Thursday File ethics while studying at U. The image of the shuttling secretary of state preempting crises or exploiting them to broker agreements. and the sad fact is there may be little Barack Obama can do about it. In the face of terrorism. And America is unlikely to prevail in any meaningful sense of the word where corrupt. who help them adapt to the American weapons and equipment they receive. and much of the third and fourth worlds believe. the U.com/mubarak-s-departure-raises-toughquestions-for-u-s-israel-20110201) CJC Policymakers in Washington and Jerusalem have assumed for days that Mubarak would soon step down. In the end. looking back over the last 60 years. and nasty regional conflicts. once upon a time. For most of the last 16 years. in addition to the contacts they have in Egypt with U. public-policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. But the Obama administration and its allies have only limited influence on the future course of events on the ground in Egypt.S. disasters and plenty of dysfunction during these years. More than 500 a year come to the U. Lamenting the absence of great men years before his own shining moment. and the U.S. Diplomatic Capital is irrelevant in a post Mubarak world. Winston Churchill wrote that in England. and the first Gulf War. opening to China. 19881991) when the United States marshaled its military. US diplomacy is ineffective – countries will say no and conflicts are escalating now. and have already begun thinking through what may come next.the United States is hampered by conflicts driven by deep ethnic and religious hostility and by internal politics in which its own allies (Israel. 5.under Bill Clinton and George Bush -. Still. the answers to the many questions set off by Mubarak’s departure will have to come from the Egyptians themselves. you really do have to wonder whether America's best diplomacy and foreign policy are behind it. or course. And in one of the cruelest ironies of all. effective Arab-Israeli diplomacy. "there were wonderful giants of old.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 115/148 Cross-X. five parts nationbuilding.
have rewritten many of the rules. Algeria. party elections. multi-party elections. 2011. better marshal American power.well before they actually had the numbers on the street. nor contribute to the possibilities for mature and intelligent . age 29. In the case of Egypt. and the actual "supreme guide" of the Muslim Brotherhood (with the infrastructure of the movement entirely behind him). yes. or Iran for that matter. only two "parties" are seriously organized. Warren – 2/17 (David Warren. and elsewhere. even a kind of judicial and legislative apparatus. The more sophisticated commentators in the West have been drawing contrasts between the older and younger manifestations of Islamism. yes. And the United States has departed from the one model that has proven successful: the strong foreign-policy president empowering the strong secretary of state who rides herd over subcabinet-level envoys in real time and in close coordination with the president on strategy.and the Egyptian army chose to dispense with Hosni Mubarak last week. which has much of the world wondering about what kind of great power the United States really is. the world has gotten used to saying no to America without cost or consequence. the social-media-savvy Moaz Abdel Karim. operating through the mosques. yes. it makes success all that much harder. . this does not make it any easier to argue with. The mob is now electronically summoned and enhanced. their protection rackets. Finally.may be conceded. The former speaks sensitively but vacuously about pluralism in religion and politics. and then very tenuously. Israel. we are asked to compare. Jordan. in Egypt. because in Egypt. make North Korea play ball. a new constitution. Hezbollah. Most old-world constitutions were written in blood (Canada's was unusual).. consciously resisting "one man. The Brotherhood and Military will prevent it either way. They became possible because social media gave people the sense of strength in numbers -. The nation's top diplomat (the secretary of state) seems to be everywhere and nowhere in terms of owning issues and finding a way to take on some of the nastiest challenges.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. or create genuine opportunities for success abroad. And there. That the existing Egyptian constitution is a defunct.realclearpolitics. or rather. you can. only because Bush and company dwelt upon the "civil society" aspects. And the image that comes to mind isn't a terribly kind one: America as a kind of modern-day Gulliver tied up by tiny tribes abroad and hobbled by its inability to organize its own house at home." arguably. It exists only tissue of false promises. and now. It corresponded approximately to the reality. It wasn't a Democracy is itself the loudest false promise being casually offered in the Middle East. in combination with partisan and sensationalized mass media. February 17.com 116/148 Thursday File power of the small is being matched by the weakening of the big. one vote. A new bureaucratic flowchart won't replace skill and luck. and made limitations upon democracy fairly plain." which the younger generation of Islamists have mastered. and Jews. more money for everyone! You cannot write a constitution in 10 days. And yet there was one thing to be said for it. along with everyone else. But if you don't have the right structure.html) CJC You cannot argue with a mob -. and so on). The latter prefers to raise the banner of Jihad. You don't have to be a declinist (I'm not) to see how far the image of American power has fallen. “Democracy and the Mob”. revised daily to keep up with the demands. Yemen. there's the issue of how the country organizes itself. And al Jazeera leaped in quickly to spread the word and excitement from there.after nearly a decade of bloodshed. Staff. and maybe the Obama administration will get lucky. which is what secretaries of state are supposed to do. the alternative is to write them in water. There will not be a transition to democracy in Egypt. Forget the economic meltdown.dictated by a dictator -. Whether it's an inability to get tough sanctions from the international community against Iran. but. It will not be available within days or weeks. It is trying to play the forces loosed on Cairo streets and elsewhere as a bull.the choice is between feigned obedience and defiance -. with a cape of promises.age 66. But the next several years are more likely to be tough ones for American diplomacy. while belabouring three topics: Zionism. in Iraq -. One would be the civilian military order behind each existing autocracy. humourless joke -. with the rhetorically bludgeoning Mohamed Badi -. bring Tehran to heel. or push the Pakistanis to hit the Taliban and al Qaeda in a sustained way. or Islamist equivalents (Hamas. 6. These latter have already created their parallel welfare and regulatory agencies. http://www." Even reduced to "free and fair multi- democracy remains unavailable for the foreseeable future. get the Arabs and the Israelis to cooperate. Whom should we trust? We have read much about those twittering "social media. Perhaps the Iranian regime will collapse or the Arabs and Israelis will do something good by themselves. and neither is parliamentary by disposition. America's currently fighting two wars where the standard for victory is not whether it can win but when it can leave.. for instance. And that's very bad for a great power. It's still early. the Obama administration has created an empire of envoys with power concentrated in the White House but without real purpose or strategy. one time.com/articles/2011/02/17/our_incoherent_response_to_middle_east_ch aos_108923. about the aspirations of women. Reforms. to return to where I started. the other the Muslim Brotherhood. but it won't last. Instead. The Internet. The demonstrations were certainly organized through them.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. From anarchy to totalitarianism is one Persian step. ***Uniqueness Ans.*** .com 117/148 Thursday File deliberation over the path ahead. It instead creates a new and much broader field for anarchy.
egypt/index.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 118/148 Cross-X. but he was also key to U.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS %3A+Politics%29) CJC the U. Iran showed the U. brought down the U.S. We don’t have the influence to do anything in the region. anti-terror efforts in the country that harbors an active and threatening subset of al Qaeda.S.-backed government of Prime Minister Saad Hariri and installed billionaire businessman Najib Mikati as its choice for the job. February 2. supported by Syria and Iran. “The Sweep: The risk of democracy in the Middle East”. In Yemen. http://www. Lebanon is in the throes of a dangerous game of brinksmanship that threatens to send the country back into civil war after Hezbollah. CNN Staff. At talks last month in Istanbul.cnn. Today.com/2011/POLITICS/02/02/sweep. ***Link Level*** .com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – N/U: Dip Cap Low US diplomatic capital is at an all-time low.us. CNN – 2/2 (Elise Labott and Josh Levs. has less leverage in the region than ever before.S. Turkey. a strongman president has been ejected.S. 2011. and its allies that it will remain defiant on its nuclear program in the face of tough sanctions.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 119/148
Cross-X.com Thursday File
Iraq Aff – Link Turn
Withdrawing from Iraq saves diplomatic capital – shifts focus elsewhere while Iraq takes the lead. Scowcroft, 5-13-2010 [Brett, former US National Security Advisor, 2010 GLOBAL SECURITY FORUM, http://csis.org/files/attachments/100513_middleeast_panel_transcript.pdf]
Q: Chet Crocker, Georgetown University. A couple of 20,000-foot questions for a retired Air Force general and a screenplay writer. (Laughter.) Brent, you mentioned the phrase, “a nurturing presence,” and I wonder what kind of post-Iraq war, postAfghan war military footprint you see in that part of the world, and what role for our diplomacy? Are we going to be the lead actor on all the issues that we’ve been touching on – Israel-Palestine, India-Pakistan, and of course, Gulf security architecture, which David mentioned? So are we going to be the lead diplomatic presence and the lead
military presence in this region? And should this region continue to occupy 80 percent of our political and diplomatic capital around the world? Thank you. LT. GEN. SCOWCROFT: Chet, I think you’re the best one to answer that question. I would hope that we would back down a little bit from leadership in the region to, if you will, nurturing and cooperation and encouragement for the region to get itself together and to move in unison. It’s fundamentally a rich region. Iraq, for example, has huge natural resources. The right kind of encouragement could do a lot to turn Iraqi-Iranian relationship to one, at least, of toleration. I think Jordan is another problem, which is, in part, a regional problem. Aside from the issues of the East Bank, and so on, there are close to a million Iraqi refugees in Jordan. This is a terrible burden for a state without the natural resources that some of the others have. I think we can use our ability to organize and guide in a way which encourages the best instincts of the region without saying, we’ve dealt with these military problems; now we’re going to set the region
straight, because I don’t think we’re able to do that.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 120/148
Cross-X.com Thursday File
Afghanistan Aff – Link Turn
Afghanistan presence devastates dip cap. South China Morning Post, 2009 [Greg Torode, 12-3, "Will Obama's Afghan strategy play into China's hands?", Lexis] Obama's Afghan strategy - 100,000 troops and a withdrawal beginning in July 2011 - will demand costly intangibles and some are wondering whether it is here, in East Asia, that Washington will end up paying that bill. Quagmire in Afghanistan could further play into the hands of an emerging China that is fast
US President Barack challenging the strategic assumptions that have governed East Asia for decades. Even if the dramatic escalation of 30,000 extra troops goes smoothly, the military, political and diplomatic capital expended will be considerable. And it is
being spent by a fresh, young hopeful, but an exhausted warrior trying to restore his reserves of blood and treasure after two conflicts, and the worst economic crisis in a generation. Will Afghanistan divert Washington's attention from the more subtle but vital task of dealing with the rise of China and balancing ties across East Asia, where, for decades, it has been the primary military power? Will it divert the energies of US institutions just as they are supposed to be engaging China on an ever-broadening range of issues, from the
not environment and water management to freedom of navigation? Then there are the worst case scenarios. Would Afghanistan commitments mean the US could not respond fully to a military crisis in the region, say a conflict over Taiwan or the Korean peninsula? Afghanistan, after all, is now Obama's war. These are the questions being asked across
the region just weeks after Obama staged his first visit to set the tone for what he hopes will be eight years of complex engagement - deepening ties with China while boosting existing alliances and reaching
to out to new friends. No one is pretending China would create that crisis but some believe Beijing would quietly seek to exploit any perceived vacuum. Dr Ian Storey, a scholar at Singapore's Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, said a sense that the US risked bogging itself down in Afghanistan could embolden Beijing. "On a strategic level, it might reinforce China's perceptions that the US is a declining power," he said. "And I think that, in turn, could make Beijing more assertive in the region. We might see China being more confident about pushing the theme of a new multipolar world like they tried in the 1990s, a world where the US is more of a 'normal' power." Already, US military officials describe more frequent encounters with Chinese warships across the region, a presence expected to grow. On the diplomatic front, US diplomats and their regional allies find their Beijing counterparts increasingly assertive. While Afghanistan might force Washington to draw away from the Pacific theatre - its biggest presence - its important naval engagement with the region was unlikely to diminish, Storey said. "We can see the US is exhausted," one veteran Japanese envoy said privately. "Taking on fresh burdens in Afghanistan leaves us wondering about the response in a crisis. With the best will, it would be a great challenge ... they are already stretched." Professor Shi Yinghong, director of the Centre for American Studies at Renmin University, said China would now pay closer attention to developments in Afghanistan. Although China would avoid publicly commenting on Obama's Afghan decision, Shi said Beijing would be concerned no matter whether America won or lost the war. "It will be a very distant concern. Beijing will be more immediately concerned if the US loses the war, in this case, its ally Pakistan will be affected, and security in the region will be undermined," he said. "If the war is won, then Beijing will be uncomfortable to have so many US soldiers near its border." In practical terms, Beijing has appeared content to stand on the sidelines through the war to date. Repeated US requests to exploit bases on the Chinese side of the border for refuelling missions have been refused. More recently, US officials have requested an opening of the small but strategic Sino-Afghan border to allow troops and supplies to be ferried down the mountainous Wakhan Corridor. The issue was raised during Obama's recent mission to Beijing but has yet to be approved. No offers of hard military support is expected any time soon. Most analysts believe China is unlikely to want to be involved in a war led by US-dominated Nato forces rather than the UN. But some in the region believe Obama will not be easily diverted. Professor Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University, said Obama had made considerable gains in Southeast Asia compared with his predecessor. He has entrenched ties with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and has taken the risk of engaging Myanmar's junta. "Despite all the challenges he will face in Afghanistan, I think the track in this part of the world is set ... his administration has done more in a year than Bush did in eight years," he said. "We fully expect that will continue."
Investment in Afghan war is wasting Obama’s diplomatic capital – aff frees it up. Carpenter, 6-27-2010 [Dan, Writer and columnist for the IndyStar, “No credit for taking charge,” http://www.indystar.com/article/20100627/OPINION05/6270333/1039/OPINION05/No-credit-fortaking-charge]
Like Lincoln, President Barack
has found it necessary to change generals in the middle of a war. Unlike Lincoln, this
president seems unlikely to defeat the South. With Afghanistan, his chances of victory are roughly equal to Lincoln's, assuming that victory means a secure, friendly populace under the firm control of a government established under the auspices of the U.S. military. Even a gunboat diplomacy buff like George Will sees no hope or necessity for the Afghanistan expedition. Liberals are left pretty much in a quagmire, suffering through another political oil
splash on their man without reason to believe his handling of this affront has any bearing on the alleged business at hand. "Success" in Afghanistan is as remote to the vast majority of
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.com 121/148 Thursday File Americans (those without loved ones there) as Afghanistan itself. To the extent they discuss the
commander in chief as they stand in line for their iPhones, they talk in terms of his domestic war, the bone-deep conflict between a Northern urbanite and a devout resistance dominated by the South and Southwest. Recognizing the potency of right-wing sentiment, and the inconstancy of the so-called Blue Dog Democrats, Obama long ago adopted a strategy of cooptation. Assure the other side you share their narrowly defined basic values of patriotism and morality and middle-class preeminence, and hope they'll drop their guard against your more imaginative agenda. Because nobody dares run for president as an
antiwar candidate, Obama chose to label Iraq as the wrong war, leaving Afghanistan as the right war and obligating himself to prosecute that waste of lives, money and diplomatic capital. He played into the mass fantasy that global upheaval can be reduced to the mischief of a few terrorist bands. He threw in the bonus of a sort-of deadline for bringing the troops home. None of it has pleased North or South on this side of the proverbial water's edge. It
couldn't even spare him a bizarre cross-cultural kneecapping by his top general in, of all places, Rolling Stone magazine. Hardly a match for Lincoln's dark nights of the soul, I guess; but our much-maligned 16th president surely died with confidence that historians would vindicate him. He waged a terrible war that ended insurrection, ended slavery -- and ended. No American
war has taken longer to reach its end than the current one that Barack Obama purported to welcome. Its end is not in sight, and the absence of evil that it would bring about is something our visionary leader is unable to picture for us. Lincoln's eloquence about bereaved military families who "have
laid so costly a sacrifice upon the altar of freedom" can hardly be appropriated for a disjointed and deadly security operation for a corrupt and ineffectual foreign regime. The battle, then, is to save face on the home front. To show who is in command. It has to be an ill-fitting role for a man who sought to dial down his predecessor's emphasis on the military and offer an open hand to the non-Western world. Playing it is the price he has had to pay to be president. He can go ahead and break a leg, as they say in show business; but he'll hear little applause from South, North, or, when it comes to his chosen war, posterity.
(Laughter. LT. A couple of 20. Iraq.000-foot questions for a retired Air Force general and a screenplay writer. you mentioned the phrase. and of course. and what role for our diplomacy? Are we going to be the lead actor on all the issues that we’ve been touching on – Israel-Palestine. 5-13-2010 [Brett. This is a terrible burden for a state without the natural resources that some of the others have. which is. India-Pakistan.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 122/148 Cross-X. and so on. postAfghan war military footprint you see in that part of the world. if you will. we’ve dealt with these military problems.pdf] Q: Chet Crocker. http://csis. I think Jordan is another problem. a regional problem. for example. GEN. there are close to a million Iraqi refugees in Jordan. of toleration. I would hope that we would back down a little bit from leadership in the region to. . The right kind of encouragement could do a lot to turn Iraqi-Iranian relationship to one. now we’re going to set the region straight. I think you’re the best one to answer that question. former US National Security Advisor. 2010 GLOBAL SECURITY FORUM. SCOWCROFT: Chet. I think we can use our ability to organize and guide in a way which encourages the best instincts of the region without saying.” and I wonder what kind of post-Iraq war. “a nurturing presence.org/files/attachments/100513_middleeast_panel_transcript. nurturing and cooperation and encouragement for the region to get itself together and to move in unison. Georgetown University. Gulf security architecture. because I don’t think we’re able to do that. at least. which David mentioned? So are we going to be the lead diplomatic presence and the lead military presence in this region? And should this region continue to occupy 80 percent of our political and diplomatic capital around the world? Thank you.com Thursday File Iraq Aff – Link Turn Withdrawing from Iraq saves diplomatic capital – shifts focus elsewhere while Iraq takes the lead.) Brent. It’s fundamentally a rich region. has huge natural resources. in part. Aside from the issues of the East Bank. Scowcroft.
[troops] abroad to further [its] national security and foreign policy objectives[.S. issues of . status. and immunities. 2001. scheme: the Status of Forces Agreement ("SOFA"). which] has profound implications under United States and international law and raises . ." n19 This Comment focuses on an instrument essential to America's military placement On February 16.. rights. The United States has a long history of "sending . “Status of Forces Agreements: Tools to Further Effective Foreign Policy and Lessons To Be Learned from the United States-Japan Agreement”.com Thursday File Japan Aff – Link Turn Withdrawing from Okinawa ends criticism of the US. the site of America's largest military base in Japan. 227. Lexis] MGM a local assembly on Okinawa.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 123/148 Cross-X." n18 As the global community becomes more aware of Japanese dissatisfaction. 2002 [Jaime. Rev.. allowing us to pursue diplomatic endeavor Gher.. the more likely it is that United States diplomatic endeavors will be thwarted and its international reputation tarnished.. Marines on the island and the resignation of their commander. University of San Francisco Law Review. demanded the "withdrawal of all U..S. JD graduate at University of San Francisco School of Law. Fall. 37 U. L.F. privileges..
attitudes of distrust tend to fester and further reduce our leverage. child labor). ***Internal Answers*** ." 116 Nye argues that "when American policies lose their legitimacy and credibility in the eyes of others. Lawyer and writer in the Vanderbilt Law School Journal of Transnational Law**. create the loss of the legitimacy and credibility necessary to build soft power. out of our domestic values and policies.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 124/148 Cross-X. Certainly.S soft power interests. gender legislation advances U. gender equality) often serves to enhance credibility in an unrelated human rights arena (e." including international standards to which the United States committed.in much the same way a President spends political capital to achieve policy objectives on Capitol Hill . The Vanderbilt Journal of Transnational Law. 114 Credibility in one human [*749] rights arena (e. 120 In particular. May 2010. Culpepper 2010 (Brenton." and reclaiming legitimacy by addressing domestic gender-motivated violence as a human rights issue can communicate this cultural value. 115 Professor Joseph Nye describes the above phenomenon as "soft power": "Soft power is the ability to get what you want through attraction rather than coercion or payments.S. which can .g.S.S. However. credibility on gender equality issues.S. LexisNexis. such as those present in gender policy. http://web. from one of military hard power to a moral and diplomatic leader. "soft power grows out of our culture. 113 This shift increases U.com/scholastic/document?_m =235f2b6f28fe5116dc52324e38ebfe4c&_docnum=1&wchp=dGLzVlzzSkVk&_md5=bcef5cca117ffa071d3621 bd40b67ba6) Congressional activism on gender policy provides an avenue for shifting the image of the U.g. 118 Areas of legal and moral contradiction.lexis-nexis. Congressional legislation serves the dual purpose of restoring the U. Such a change would significantly increase diplomatic capital. In this way. image as a champion of gender equality as well as signaling that Congress takes its responsibility for fulfilling international human rights obligations seriously. diplomatic capital.com Thursday File Link – Link Turn – South Korea K Aff Link Turn: US focus should shift from military power and towards gender policy.S. 119 Readers should be cautious not to overestimate the value of U.translate into success for U.S. moral ethos would dissipate. “Congress’s Attempted Response to the World’s Demand for the Violence Against Women Act”. foreign policy goals." 117 "Problems arise for our soft power when we do not live up to our own standards. this Note does not mean to suggest that if Congress passes legislation that addresses gender problems in America. all of the damage currently spanning the U.
“Also the people of Egypt would likely not accept it.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt: No Influence US does not have influence over Egyptian military. Bannerman and others said. has had much influence over the decisions of the Egyptian military during the turmoil in Cairo and other major cities. http://www.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 125/148 Cross-X. a professor of economics at the National Defense University in Washington.” said Paul Sullivan.” said Robert Springborg. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger.S.” . 2011.html) CJC The standards taught “include a role for civilian influence over decision-making. a professor of political economy of the Middle East at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey. reporter for Bloomberg News. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. “I think the military has looked after its own interests as the high command sees them. “They are just not the types to want to do that. Feb 13.” he said. California. The Egyptian military isn’t likely to get too involved in details of constitutional changes or get so comfortable that they would want to hang on to power. Springborg said he doesn’t think the U.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military. “Public Praise.
analysts said. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. “They see the aid as a partnership. Feb 13. As a result.S. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt: Aid =/= Influence Aid does not influence Egyptian military. 2011. receives.html) CJC The Egyptian military sees the aid it receives every year from the U. they see it as compensation for the Peace Accords with Israel. he said.” Bannerman said.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military. “They’re smart enough to know that’s not how to get them to do it. “Public Praise.” . as recompense for its 1979 peace agreement with Israel and for basing and access that the U. reporter for Bloomberg News. http://www. Gates and Mullen aren’t likely to press too hard.S.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 126/148 Cross-X.
html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS %3A+Politics%29) CJC Although it came into office hoping to seduce the region rather than fight it. "It's important to keep in mind that the United States is not going to change the course of events in Egypt or anywhere else. CNN – 2/2 (Elise Labott and Josh Levs.realclearpolitics. it must be peaceful." Ottaway said." he said. http://www.". and it must begin now. President Obama did a good job of pretending that we have significant influence on the events in Egypt which will determine who rules in Mubarak's place.W. White House Chief of Staff William Daley. US does not have influence over the Middle East. Stone – 1/31 (Andrea Stone. he threw our lot with the demonstrators who seek Mubarak's immediate removal and made Mubarak's time to organize any transition even more limited than they were before. Wall Street Journal – 2/3 (JONATHAN WEISMAN And ADAM ENTOUS. Whether his regime falls now or leaves of its own accord later will not be decided in Washington. This loss of influence is apparently misunderstood or. 2011. Babbin – 2/2 (Jed Babbin served as a Deputy Undersecretary of Defense under George H.com/2011/01/31/egyptian-crisis-biggest-foreign-test-yet-for-obamaadministratio/) CJC U. misunderestimated by the Obama administration and its media surrogates. February 2.com/2011/POLITICS/02/02/sweep. “White House Charts a New Plan”.unless the Egyptian armed forces choose to intervene may tilt Egypt into the radical Islamist sphere now dominated by Iran. “Egypt's Future Will Be Decided by the Military”. 2011. said. February 2.S.wsj.” By that remark. not only to show progress on solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict but to encourage democratic reform. "A lot of this is totally out of our control. which has been solidly pro-American since the advent of King Abdullah's reign. .S. has zero influence over what happens on the ground in Egypt. Jordan. DC or the New York Times' editorial boardroom. US has zero influence over the outcome in Egypt. 1/31/2011. Political Analyst for Politics Daily. to borrow a malapropism from a former president.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – No Influence U. http://www. Change in the region comes not from his encouragement but from the disaffected taking matters into their own hands. He is the author of several bestselling books including "Inside the Asylum. they know the outcome is out of their control." and "In the Words of Our Enemies. Staff Writers. "The United States is really a spectator to a phenomenon that has taken on a life of its own.politicsdaily. America has lost the ability to influence the shape of post-Mubarak Egypt and it faces growing crises in another moderate Arab state.cnn. 2011. Neither will the choice of his successor.com/article/SB10001424052748703960804576120064121963244.com/articles/2011/02/02/egypts_future_will_be_decided_by_the_milit ary. who ." Much of the White House response has been "reacting to the circumstances on the street and the knowledge we obtain. Bush. http://online. In fact." US is reactionary. “The Sweep: The risk of democracy in the Middle East”. “Egyptian Crisis Biggest Foreign Test Yet for Obama Administration”.html) CJC Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's Tuesday promise to not run for reelection does not mean his government will survive through the scheduled September contest. FEBRUARY 3. meeting with journalists Wednesday. But he did say one thing that will influence events there: that transition in Egypt "must be meaningful.egypt/index. is a 'spectator' Despite its financial sway. the Obama administration has not delivered on the tantalizing promises it made since taking over. Mubarak and moves to an interim government is not clear.us.html? mod=rss_Politics_And_Policy) CJC How the administration overcomes Mr. In his brief Tuesday evening remarks. http://www.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 127/148 Cross-X. CNN Staff. These dashed expectations Obama has created in the region are not just disappointing.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. . are taking the lead. credibility in the region and have had diplomats and Middle East experts scratching their heads about just what Obama's vision for the region is.S. to help in times of crisis. This troubled region has always looked to the U.S. countries like Turkey and Qatar.com 128/148 Thursday File they have hurt U. whose interests don't always align with Washington's. Now.
realclearpolitics.*** .com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – No Influence: Military US does not have influence over the military. That is the most likely scenario if radical Islamic influence . They can be baought by radical forces. Though they aren't well-trained by US standards because they have little funding to train.com/articles/2011/02/02/egypts_future_will_be_decided_by_the_milit ary.".again reflecting Egypt's weak economy and consistent failure to spend enough to create and train effective forces . when Mubarak falls.W. On Monday. He is the author of several bestselling books including "Inside the Asylum.they are loyal to their officers.manage to tip the balance their way. But they will resist a radical regime.from inside Egypt and emanating from Iran and Syria . But given Egypt's culture and its military's low-paid status. Babbin – 2/2 (Jed Babbin served as a Deputy Undersecretary of Defense under George H. February 2. ***A2: Counterterrorism*** ***Impact Ans. it's entirely possible that a new Islamist regime could purchase the military's loyalty. http://www. “Egypt's Future Will Be Decided by the Military”." and "In the Words of Our Enemies. the Egyptian military proclaimed it would not use violence against the Cairo demonstrators. But what if. a more radical government rises in its place? Another senior American military source opined that the Egyptian military would not permit a radical Islamic regime like the Tehran Ayatollahs from taking control. the officers and men have some prestige in Egyptian society which they wish to maintain.html) CJC As one very senior retired Israeli officer told me.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 129/148 Cross-X. In 1973 they even expelled the Soviets from Egypt. 2011. Bush. That source emphasized that the Egyptian army's deep rooted culture and mentality will prevail. Though the enlisted men in Egyptian forces are very poorly paid . at least up to a point. the Egyptian army didn't become communist when it was heavily equipped (rather more than it needed) by the Soviet Union. We cannot expect that the Egyptian army will have become a democratic force as a result of our deep connections with it. But that does not mean it will remain on the sidelines indefinitely. A senior American military source who trained with Egyptian forces for years echoed those thoughts and added this: the Egyptian army's officer corps is loyal to Mubarak.
washingtonpost. Washington Post – 2/13 (Mary Beth Sheridan and Joby Warrick.-Egyptian counterterrorism work”. an Egyptian who is the No. however. C. B. Al-Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood have been foes for decades. Turkey could fill the intelligence void. another former State Department Middle East expert. ***A2: Spillover/Instability*** . Grenier predicted the relationship would continue even if the Muslim Brotherhood controlled the next government. "But the U. They know that. a consulting firm. They note the country has every interest in combating terrorism. a Middle East expert with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy." Indeed. said Dunne. having suffered years of assassinations and other attacks by extremist Muslim groups. now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.com Thursday File A2: Counterterrorism Impacts No risk of collapsing counterterrorism operations. 2011. “Mubarak resignation throws into question U. Only last month. now chairman of ERG Partners. 21 people died in a carbomb attack on a Coptic Christian church in Alexandria. Scott Carpenter. has good counterterrorism cooperation with governments of countries like Turkey. the Brotherhood "understands the extremists better than anyone else. February 13. Michele Dunne. she said. "The idea we can't do business with countries responsive to their citizens is a false one." said the former CIA official. Egypt will continue its cooperation even with Muslim Brotherhood in power.com/wpdyn/content/article/2011/02/12/AR2011021203581.html?hpid=topnews) CJC officials. Washington Post Staff Writers." a democratic Muslim nation. 3 warrants: A. in revolutionary situations.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 130/148 Cross-X. "maybe Egypt won't be producing terrorists" like Ayman al-Zawahiri. and polls show that Egyptians overwhelmingly reject the group's brutal methods and rigid ideology. the moderates are the first to go. at least in the short run. http://www. 2 figure in al-Qaeda. Al-Qaeda opposes the kind of democracy that millions of Egyptians called for in the 18 days of mass demonstrations that led to Mubarak's toppling.S.S." said J. Turn: Egypt democracy regardless of the outcomes undercut Al-Qaeda. agreed that the new Egyptian government will be much more sensitive to public opinion than Mubarak's regime. Many counterterrorism officials and Middle East experts are skeptical that al-Qaeda will benefit from Egypt's political upheaval. if Some former the future Egyptian government is less repressive. argue that Egypt is likely to continue much of its cooperation. If anything. "The developments in Egypt are actually devastating to al-Qaeda.
which reflect our vision for comprehensive modernization and development in Jordan. http://www. 2011. the arts. not least of which is a leader who turns and flees. After all. the former ambassador to Yemen and a longtime specialist in Near East affairs.” Beyond that. February 1. official involved in analyzing the Arab world.politico. who is now vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.” There is no risk of spreading instability. Political Reporters for Poiltico. http://www. government is that the turmoil in Egypt is likely containable politically -. however. where the unemployment rate is 13.no one really knows.7 percent (according to CIA estimates). pushed for reforms. “I don’t see it as a brush fire spreading across the Middle East. especially since economic discontent seems a central motivation. then possibly Mubarak -.” But that still is a long way from revolution. Egypt’s government is uniquely despised for precisely the reason that it has been so stagnant in its policies. the last one to occur in the region had been the Iranian revolution -. In Yemen. and by doing so. and so he gave the protesters what they were asking for. “Remember in 2003 to 2005." Bodine added. "I think what you’re watching is this utter frustration. Hirsh previously served as the senior editor and national economics correspondent for Newsweek. as Ben Ali did to the surprise of many experts. late Tuesday and ordered him to “undertake quick and tangible steps for real political reforms. though he added that “Jordan is different from Tunisia and Egypt. the king has a template — the . January 31. a change of government. Politico – 2/1 (Ben Smith and Laura Rozen. ambassador to Israel and current director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution. Hirsh – 1/31 ( Michael Hirsh is chief correspondent for National Journal. Saudi Arabia is ostensibly rich and under rigid control.S. King Abdullah is also running a police state that brooks no dissent. but as soon as the Jordanian political establishment raised alarms. Still. Former Jordanian Foreign Minister Marwan Muasher said. not that things were going badly.” Abdullah’s statement also called for an “immediate revision” of the laws governing politics and public freedom. but unemployment is higher (10. but it is going to have an impact across the Middle East.” according to a statement.” said Barbara Bodine. “King Abdullah of Jordan and the Gulf Arab leaders have the ability to adapt. “What you had was this gerontocracy sitting on top of an ossified bureaucracy. in terms of education. when people were predicting another Arab spring. more than Mubarak. Does the Revolution Stop There?”. “It has been a game-changer in how people see their governments and their ability to change them. “Egypt has not been center of gravity in the Middle East for a very long time. in terms of money. “So. the betting among some of the more sober-minded analysts of Arab and Middle East politics inside and outside the U. he hopes to ensure that they do not demand anything more.that it sends reverberations throughout the region but without a wave of revolution to follow. there’s no fear of the system collapsing in any way. namely. but we won’t be able to attain that without real political reforms.and that remained a one-off event for three decades. “Containing Egypt: If Mubarak Goes. both on its own right and when viewed in the regional context.com Thursday File Aff – No Egypt Spillover Egypt uprisings will not spillover into instability in the Middle East.S. “It’s a serious wake-up call that reform can’t wait any longer. Overturning a government requires that a whole array of unusual circumstances align at once. The Iraqis were holding elections.could spread quickly to other regimes.its time of influence has passed. that the move could trigger real change. So were the Palestinians. Ali Abdullah Saleh is presiding over terrible poverty and an unemployment rate that the CIA says runs as high as 35 percent.” said Martin Indyk. 2011.” said Muasher. while Egypt was once seen as the aristocracy of the Arab world -. former U. In Jordan.” said Ghaith al-Omari.html) CJC Jordan’s King Abdullah II named a new prime minister. The spillover or domino effect tends to be less than people fear it will. The king described economic reform as a “necessity to provide a better life for our people. which must increase popular participation in the decision making. until Tunisia. who is of Jordanian descent and serves as advocacy director for the American Task Force on Palestine. “Egypt unrest threatens to spread”.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 131/148 Cross-X. Leaders throughout the Middle East are pushing reforms quickly to prevent uprisings.the country that others looked to -. “the king backed away from it.com/nationalsecurity/some-u-s-experts-argue-yes--20110131) CJC That’s the only certainty now as well -. “What we see is the king realizing that this is a serious public movement.nationaljournal.” Indeed. There were a lot of predictions that got way ahead of where the facts were.” said a U.” Muasher developed a political reform plan five years ago. Tunisia’s Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. but they weren’t going at all." Bodine said.4 percent compared to Egypt’s 9. It is quite possible that the rapid toppling of two long-entrenched Arab dictators -. Marouf al-Bakhit.8 percent) there than in Egypt. The Jordanian monarchy is still widely viewed as stable in spite of a large and restive population of Palestinian refugees and observers who said it is unclear whether the shake-up — unlike Mubarak’s new government in Egypt — represents a move toward real change.com/news/stories/0211/48649. And Abdullah has. the media.first. “The aristocracy is often the last to know their time is over.S.
King Hussein of Jordan sent tanks into Palestinian refugee camps to quash an armed insurrection.S. a Yemeni think-tank. as opposed to representing a set of meaningless talking points they can ignore. such as by the Iranian regime of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that crushed the popular opposition riots following the elections last year. "I will not extend my mandate and I am against hereditary rule. we will all go down together.’” What is clear is that the turmoil in Tunisia and Egypt has roiled the region with an intensity not seen since the 1970s. quickly giving in to the demands of change from their people. Maddy-Weitzman. And the evident American and European willingness to watch Mubarak fall may have prompted autocrats to re-evalute their own relationships. One day after the protests broke out in Egypt." Awwas said that President Saleh's announcement was more likely an attempt to quell opposition rage than a sincere declaration he would step down." Awwas said. The opposition did not demand Saleh's resignation either." Maddy-Weitzman told The Media Line. http://www. the Yemeni president on Wednesday announced he would not stand for another term. more violence is sometimes used. Dr.” said Human Rights Watch Washington Director Tom Malinowski. taking both concrete and symbolic steps. reportedly executing a record number of prisoners in January. ‘Gentlemen. In Iran. In both events. he added. where protesters have clashed with police. "What happened in Tunisia and Egypt has an impact on other Arab states.com/articles/7022549122) CJC The use of crushing military force to put down popular uprisings has lost its punch in the Arab Middle East. ***A2: Iran Reform*** . sink or swim? If we do not implement this political reform program now. In the Palestinian city Ramallah. “They’re dumbfounded by the notion that the U. but only reforms in the election system and a tougher government approach to corruption. Saleh's 32-year presidency will expire in 2013. a senior Middle East researcher at the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel-Aviv University. trying to avert the mistakes made by their Egyptian and Tunisian counterparts.500 to its subjects to subsidize the cost of food. "The important thing is he will not be able to bequeath the Presidency to his son. abandoning plans to change the constitution enabling him to rule for life. “Times are changing use of force in Arab world”. In 1982 iron-fisted Syrian forces leveled the city of Hama as President Hafez Al-Assad ruthlessly crushed a Sunni Islamic revolt.allheadlinenews. including one Dutch national who participated in European protests. Reporter. governments have visibly responded to the fear of spreading turmoil: In Yemen. because there will be no backlash from other governments. However. There will be no spill over from Egypt creating instability. "They’re trying to defuse the atmosphere and recalibrate. the government — which is publicly cheering Egyptian protesters — is also flexing its muscle. In September 1970. Less than 24 hours after Egyptian president Husni Mubarak announced he would neither run again for office nor nominate his son Gamal. government’s rhetoric about human rights and democracy might actually mean something. 2011. Across the region.com Thursday File Muasher plan. ahead of a "Day of Rage" scheduled for Thursday by civil society groups. and after King Abdullah of Jordan sacked Prime Minister Samir Rifai and his cabinet. February 2. "The era of tanks and security control is over. Today. Miller – 2/2 (David E. whose small populations and immense wealth have typically allowed the regimes to defuse political protest — responded visibly. leaders appear to be altering their tactics. thousands of civilians lost their lives." Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh told his country’s parliament." Aish Ali Awwas." During the 1970s and 1980s Arab rulers used massive force without hesitation to quell local opposition. head of strategic studies at the Sheba Center for Strategic Studies (SCSS). The new era will be one of peaceful activities. "Everyone now is focused on the day after Saleh. The question is whether he will now have the basis to go to the East Bank establishment and say. after what happened in Tunisia and Egypt.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 132/148 Cross-X. said that Arab leaders were now opting for a proactive approach. President Ali Abdullah — who last week raised the salaries of government employees and soldiers — announced expanded payments to thousands of poor families and eliminated tuition for students at state universities. told The Media Line. Even seemingly stable regimes — notably American allies like Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. depriving Arab Bruce countries of their traditional monopoly over the flow of information. Miller. Kuwait’s government announced payments of more than $3. He said that new media made it more difficult for regimes to use hard force. President Mahmoud Abbas canceled the elections in 2009 for fear that his Fatah party would lose seats. the Western-backed authority said it would move swiftly to hold local elections.
S. Many of the green movement’s demands still resonate with Iranians — some even. Facile comparisons aside. the government has not shied away from gleefully reporting the Arab uprisings. coddled and encouraged by Washington and who acted against the wishes of their citizens. until now. That’s not to say that the anti-Americanism displayed by Iranians is anything but anti-imperialism.” It is not so different in Iran — except that popular opinion on U.S. hegemony as much as they are against dictatorship. and is unlikely to reappear anytime soon. foreign policy — in the region. evidently. is that the government has been successful in portraying itself — at least to moderate supporters — as being aligned with Western interests. It largely ignored.S. Arab protesters could have only dreamed about what Iran has achieved politically in the past 30-plus years. That is not to say that there is no discontent or that the green movement — more a civil rights movement than the revolution that many in the West had hoped for — is completely irrelevant. apart from the severity of the government’s crackdown. Both before and after the contested 2009 election. “Tunis envy. 2011. the green movement’s large number of demonstrators gave the impression that the entire country was unified behind one goal. Iran has been subjected to U.politico. “Iran won't take cues from Egypt”. But there was little indication that Iran’s youth were readying themselves for another challenge to authority. much like the Cedar Revolution. meanwhile.The media. January 31. interests. they are made with the Islamic Revolution of 1979. If there is any secret desire among U. at least among the majority of Iranians. In Tehran. sanctions. citizens see politics as usual: continuing disputes. I was in Tehran when the Tunisian president fled his country and after the Hezbollah-engineered collapse of the Lebanese government. however. however. Iranians have a long history. But Iran has been free of foreign influence — even if its citizens haven’t always agreed with the government’s policies. Iranian supporters of the green movement were quick to disseminate catchy slogans: “Tunes tunest. The West’s view that Iran has an overwhelmingly unpopular dictatorship and that the green movement sought to overthrow the political system is fundamentally wrong. politically or even religiously. while Arab countries are key strategic allies and their governments receive billions of dollars in U. officials that Iran’s opposition green movement will now be motivated by what it inspired and rise up again to overthrow the Islamic system. interests. there is not enough support against Iranian leadership. those hopes will most likely be dashed. But major change in Iran is unlikely to come . Support for the supreme leader and the Islamic system was. that turned out to be an illusion. But Iran’s green movement had more in common with the Lebanese Cedar Revolution of 2005 than with the 2011 uprising in North Africa. Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. It may be a stretch for the Iranian government to proclaim that Arab protesters are revolting against U. Iran has been more politically analogous to the red state. and Iran’s youth are.com Thursday File Aff – No Iran Reform There will be no Iranian overthrow of government sparked from the Egyptian protests. the extent of support that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did have — which even green movement leaders estimated to be in the millions. Rather. This Iranian narrative. But analogies are made not with the fetneh. is in line with the government’s. But again. indeed. famously. which swept the shah off the Peacock Throne and into ignominious exile. But it is indisputable that the popular opinion of Arab states runs contrary to what we ordinarily call “U. But within Iran.” Certainly there may be Iranians who are envious of the ease with which the Arabs dispatched their leader. Arab countries have also had dictators who were supported.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 133/148 Cross-X. was a lifetime dictator closely allied with Washington. is the author of “The Ayatollahs’ Democracy: An Iranian Challenge”.S. more than a century.S. better yet. Iran couldn’t or. In the almost two years since. Their struggle since the fall of the shah for representative government has not depended on the removal of one man or one family. But. One reason the green movement lost steam in Iran. an Iranian-American writer. Iranian exiles and many Western analysts have declared the country an unredeemable dictatorship. much like Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak. is far closer to the truth. had focused on protesters and demonstrators in 2009 and on the government’s heavy crackdown. Majd – 1/31 (Hooman Majd. As with the Lebanese protests. Persians are not Arabs and have little in common with them culturally. far greater. as the 2009 post-election crisis is described. and is. the most pro-American — but not pro-U.com/printstory. Those large demonstrations are being cited as the sparks that ignited the imagination of all who live under repressive regimes in the Middle East. with Ahmadinejad and his government. support — little of which trickles down to their citizens.S.” meaning Tunisia could. The Iranian media covered both extensively. or sedition. Egypt and elsewhere in the Arab world to Iran’s 2009 green movement protests.cfm?uuid=D87B8D53-EA90-B6B4-DB70DE791553C0EC) CJC There has been a temptation in the West to tie the convulsions in Tunisia.S. challenges and debate among the three branches of government — with Ahmadinejad not always coming out on top. however. http://dyn. In the West. Iran natunest. blue state dynamic in the United States than to the one-man rule of many Arab states. of democratic movements. Unlike Arabs. which affect ordinary citizens’ quality of life.
Not while the whole country.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.com 134/148 Thursday File about through street protests — which is why no one calls for them anymore. ***A2: Muslim Brotherhood Bad*** . unlike in the Arab states. isn’t united in hatred of its leaders.
com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – No I/L: Muslim Brotherhood Muslim Brotherhood will not rise to control the government. http://www.” Martin Indyk. . “I don’t think the military are going to let the Muslim Brotherhood take over and the Muslim Brotherhood know that and they’re keeping their heads down.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 135/148 Cross-X. might seize control of the country. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. lawmakers have raised concerns that the Muslim Brotherhood.html) CJC Other U. and saying basically they don’t want to take over.S. 2011. “Public Praise. Feb 13.. D. they don’t want power and the military would NEVER allow it. reporter for Bloomberg News. said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” yesterday.C. a former ambassador to Israel who is vice president for foreign policy at the nonprofit Brookings Institution in Washington. an opposition group accused of terrorist ties.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military.
in my opinion we need a national consensus. But he said the Brotherhood's top leadership had decided on the creation of a party. said the movement would not run any candidate for upcoming presidential elections.thesunnews. "The Muslim Brotherhood group believes in the freedom of the formation of political parties. acknowledging that such a move would be too controversial. its time for unity. Sun News – 2/14 (LEE KEATH and HAMZA HENDAWI . 14." he said. .com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – Brotherhood Won’t Run No Internal link – Muslim Brotherhood will not run for election. "We are not going to have a candidate for the upcoming presidential elections. Its time for solidarity. “Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood plans political party”.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 136/148 Cross-X. Feb.Associated Press reporters. a prominent Brotherhood figures.com/2011/02/14/1981307/egypts-us-envoy-says-mubarakmay." spokesman Mohammed Mursi said in a statement on the Brotherhood website. 2011. Essam el-Arian. They are eager to have a political party.html#storylink=mirelated) CJC The Brotherhood announced Tuesday that it would form a party once promised freer laws are in place. http://www. This guts their extremist internal which are critical to their impact story.
when presidents from Pakistan's Pervez Musharraf to Egypt's Mubarak played up the threat of radical Islamists at home to secure more goodies from Washington — namely billions of dollars worth of aid and military hardware — and retain power. but it is no longer the defiant anti-system movement it was in the past. February 2. as the country's largest opposition movement. arguing that the Brotherhood is less interested in seizing power and calling the shots than it is in spreading its message and influencing policy.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – A2: Muslim Brotherhood Bad Muslim Brotherhood does not represent a threat to transition to radical Islam in Egypt. The threat posed by Islamists seizing power is more often than not a crutch used by autocrats to safeguard their positions. Mohamed ElBaradei. when the group was founded in a smoky coffeehouse in 1920s Cairo. The Atlantic's Robert Kaplan describes the group as a "community self-help organization.egypt/index. The Brotherhood also suffers from an image problem. http://www. including Israel. any grassroots reform coalition in Egypt must win the Brotherhood's support. Carrie author of "Mobilizing Islam: Religion. Indeed.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 137/148 Cross-X. has won the Brotherhood's support. As a result. the alternative is worse. 2/1/2011." Even though its members support sharia law. 2011.usatoday.S. some foreign policy observers are urging caution in calling for regime change or immediate elections. Their turns are overblown rhetoric without specific facts about the Muslim Brotherhood. But after being banned in 1954. Nor is it clear they'd install an Iran-style theocracy. but to reform Egyptian politics by cleaning up corruption and releasing political prisoners. no democracy.com/2011/POLITICS/02/02/sweep. Their relationship vis-à-vis the U.htm) CJC The United States has played a role of wait-and-see as protests have raged across Tunisia and Egypt. and nonMuslims. candidate in political science at Yale University. It is more popular than Egypt's liberal opposition. its orientation was hardly pro-democratic.D. But Washington cannot wish away their widespread support among Egypt's religious classes. We have seen this in spades since 9/11. “In Egypt. And some Muslim Brothers have participated in the recent protests. their primary aim is not to roll back women's rights or install an Islamic caliphate (much less a Taliban-style haven for terrorists). True. given its offshoots with ties to terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda and its alleged role in the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in 1981. CNN – 2/2 (Elise Labott and Josh Levs. 'Islamist' fears overblown”. for a democratic coalition to come to power in Egypt it has to make political room for religious groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood. These fears are overblown.com/news/opinion/forum/2011-02-01-column01_ST2_N. Islamic role is essential But let's face it. an associate professor of political science at Emory University and notes that the Brotherhood is an umbrella organization that encompasses different views and trends. CNN Staff. Beehner – 2/1 (Lionel Beehner is a fellow with the Truman National Security Project and Ph. can best be summed up: Hey. U. There is concern that a party inhospitable to American interests — namely the Muslim Brotherhood — could fill a power vacuum were President Hosni Mubarak to be tossed from office like Tunisia's Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Activism and Political Change in Egypt. Indeed. That isn't a bad thing. And the bulk of its membership comprises moderates committed to peaceful relations with Egypt's neighbors. The key question is whether the Brotherhood will continue to exercise self-restraint when the Mubarak regime falls. no democracy. as they have with Hamas in Palestine or Hezbollah in Lebanon. Though technically illegal.S.us. He is also a member of USA TODAY's Board of Contributors. “The Sweep: The risk of democracy in the Middle East”. the movement drifted from the fiery rhetoric of past enlistees such as al-Qaeda deputy Ayman al-Zawahri— or even the anti-American theologian Sayyid Qutb — to make room for liberal values. we may not be perfect. Rosefsky believes it will. the group does have a presence among the masses. policy still feels .html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS %3A+Politics%29) CJC Rosefsky Wickham.cnn. secure foreign aid and snap up White House invitations." The Muslim Brotherhood is not a threat to US interests. but trust me. Other experts believe the Brotherhood will grab power if given the chance." What we are seeing is the Arab world corollary: No Islamist representation. an opposition candidate for president. The political scientist Barrington Moore once famously posited: "No bourgeoisie. though their role and influence remain unclear. http://www.
so too will the Muslim Brotherhood be part of a future — and. should back elections there. And he must. but if the Brothers were hell-bent on installing an Iranian- style theocracy. "Unfortunately. There are no colorful or anti-American religious clerics like Ayatollah Khomeini waiting in the wings.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 138/148 Cross-X. The question is not whether the Muslim Brotherhood will seek to join ElBaradei's coalition. a secular technocrat. "This cycle of suspicion and discord must end." President Obama pledged in his June 2009 speech in Cairo. whether now or later this year. If the Brotherhood wins in a landslide.S." Maybe. We cannot avoid free elections because of the threat of Islamist parties.com Thursday File hamstrung from the memories of Iran in 1979. Just as the Taliban will be included in whatever future government of Afghanistan finally sticks. they would not have thrown their support behind ElBaradei. yes. meanwhile. Indeed. . "Whether the Brotherhood would in fact try to impose such a (theocratic) regime is unknown. but whether he will accept them. itself has acknowledged in practice." Max Boot of the Council on Foreign Relations wrote recently. Post-9/11 paranoia about radical Islam has made too many Americans allergic to the "I" word in political movements — an untenable position in the Middle East as the U. Egypt is not post-Shah Iran. Moderate Islam is an essential part of democracy in the Middle East —Washington needs to start reading its own memos. This isn't Iran Also. the only way to find out would be to let them take over. so too do we demonize parties with a religious bent. Let us not forget that America's two most recent nation-building efforts have resulted in the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and an Iraqi constitution that defines the country as an Islamic Democratic Republic. just as we tend to oversentimentalize the secular opposition candidates as saints. democratic — Egypt. The United States. that could be preferable to propping up an unpopular dictator.
he would just shut down the cafe and arrest us. And because the Brotherhood itself is not monolithic — it has many factions — it could well . King Farouk. the Muslim Brotherhood has tried to revive Islamic power. the Brotherhood will probably have representatives in any freely elected government. 11 to “brainwash” people into thinking of all Muslim activists as terrorists. Yet in 83 years it has botched every opportunity. A Brotherhood spokesman.” Tony Blair.000 adherents out of a population of over 80 million. Kaseem said.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss) CJC AS Egyptians clash over the future of their government.” Dr.com/2011/02/03/opinion/03atran. On Tuesday. “If people met in a cafe and talked about things the regime didn’t like. a newspaper editor and human rights activist. But it is because democracies tolerate disparate political groups that they generally don’t have civil wars. Essam el-Erian. at least as many Egyptians see it. the former British prime minister. Brotherhood and the (Un)making of Terrorists. described playing out under Mr. Erian said. the University of Michigan and John Jay College. the group has only six clinics in Cairo. The street. notably the Muslim Brotherhood.” he said in vilifying the group. This has made it a target of Al Qaeda’s venom.” People in the West frequently conflate the Brotherhood and Al Qaeda. Atran – 2/2 (Scott Atran.” Mr. notably its stance against Israel. the Brotherhood counts perhaps some 100. Their evidence is not supported by facts on the ground in Egypt and the military will check back and ensure a peaceful transition. it might be backing the wrong horse. The British. Ever since its founding in 1928 as a rival to Western-inspired nationalist movements that had failed to free Egypt from foreign powers. Kaseem said. he retorted that the United States and Mr. You “falsely affiliated with Islam. Although originally the Brotherhood was organized into paramilitary cells. the Brotherhood’s importance will rapidly fade. The Brotherhood realized that in addition to being late. “Egypt’s Bumbling Brotherhood”. the former leader of Egypt’s Islamic Jihad and Al Qaeda’s leading strategist. Moreover.” But when Mr. is the author of “Talking to the Enemy: Faith. 25 has made it marginal to the spirit of revolt now spreading through the Arab world. expressed hope that Hosni Mubarak would stay on as president of Egypt while instituting reforms to prevent the Muslim Brotherhood and other extremists from grabbing power. Dr. “but not in America and Europe.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – A2: Muslim Brotherhood Takeover Muslim Brotherhood does not have the ability to take control. so the Brotherhood survived. Erian about this. This error was compounded when the Brotherhood threw in its lot with Mohamed ElBaradei. a former member of the Brotherhood’s Guidance Council. In Egypt today. Kaseem told me. the House speaker. Americans and Europeans have repeatedly expressed fears of the Muslim Brotherhood. Gamal Abdel Nasser and Anwar elSadat all faced the same problem that Hisham Kaseem. “You don’t just have a government and a movement for democracy. and few Islamic slogans or chants were heard. In January 2006. And its failure to support the initial uprising in Cairo on Jan. ElBaradei strode into Tahrir Square. said of Egypt on Monday. the Brotherhood did not arrive at this historical moment with the advantage of wide public favor. Obviously the Brotherhood wants power and its positions. And according to Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh. if only to protect their businesses from government disapproval. which fear them as the bogeyman. Erian told me. today it forswears violence in political struggle. When the army allowed hundreds of Mubarak supporters and plainclothes policemen through barricades on Wednesday to muscle out protesters.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 139/148 Cross-X. manifests little support for the Brotherhood. told Al Jazeera.” Mr.” If Egyptians are given political breathing space. “You forget about the rule of Shariah. however. When I asked Dr. a city of 18 million. many ignored him and few rallied to his side despite the enormous publicity he was receiving in the Western press. John Boehner. “It’s too early to even discuss whether ElBaradei should lead a transitional government or whether we will join him.” Many people outside Egypt believe that the Brotherhood gains political influence by providing health clinics and charity for the poor. The wealthier businessmen who often sponsor them tend to shun the Brotherhood. Dr. welcome the Crusaders’ bases in your countries and acknowledge the existence of the Jews who are fully armed with nuclear weapons. Only a small minority of the protesters in Tahrir Square joined its members in prayers there (estimates range from 5 percent to 10 percent). But here’s the real deal. “In this uprising the Brotherhood is almost invisible. from which you are banned to possess. February 2. And although their means are very different. Such support as it does have among Egyptians — an often cited figure is 20 percent to 30 percent — is less a matter of true attachment than an accident of circumstance: the many decades of suppression of secular opposition groups that might have countered it.” The previous day. “You also have others.”. Ayman al-Zawahri. who would take this in a different direction. 2011. Many of the other clinics are Islamic in orientation simply because most Egyptians are Islamic. are problematic for American interests. “Political groups support ElBaradei to negotiate with the regime.nytimes. It might be able to recover lost leverage by showing its organizational tenacity in resisting the attempts to repress the demonstrators. blasted the Brotherhood’s willingness to participate in parliamentary elections and reject nuclear arms. an anthropologist at France’s National Center for Scientific Research. Mubarak had conspired after Sept. Nonetheless. or wars with other democracies. even many Egyptians suspect that they share a common end that is alien to democracy. the former diplomat and Nobel Prize winner. Mubarak.” This kind of flip-flopping makes many Egyptians scoff. the Muslim Brotherhood may have gained an opportunity. adding that “the street” knew the truth. But the very poor in Egypt are not very politically active. http://www. Mr. “But you can’t close mosques. “Israel must know that it is not welcome by the people in this region.
What we are seeing in Egypt is a revolt led by digitally informed young people and joined by families from all rungs of society.” If America’s already teetering standing among Egyptians and across the Arab and Muslim world is not to topple altogether. Kaseem said. who insisted that he is pro-American and abhors the Brotherhood. many of its young proponents have long been working behind the scenes. Mubarak responsible for the violence and privately inform the Egyptian Army that it cannot support any institution that is complicit. Though in one sense it happened overnight. although that may reflect a vain hope of using that time to broaden its popular support enough to reach a controlling plurality. of 30 wouldn’t go down the same path as Mubarak because he would understand that the people of Egypt who are out in the streets are no longer apathetic. Even a military leader with an I. the problems of violent extremism and waves of emigration that America and Europe most fear from this unhappy region could well fade as its disaffected youth at last find hope at home. as it so promisingly began to do over the past week.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. Hardly anyone I talked to believes that democracy can be established overnight.” Mr.” urged Mr. The more common assessment even among democracy advocates is that the military will retain control — Omar Suleiman. stay away. ***A2: Suez Canal*** .com 140/148 Thursday File succumb to internal division if there really were a political opening for other groups in Egypt. A military in control behind the scenes — for a while — is probably the best hope for a peaceful transition. an open press. If Egypt is allowed to find its own way. Kaseem. the intelligence chief and new vice president. Egyptians are a pretty savvy lot. will be acceptable to Egyptians if the army gets rid of Mr. The Brotherhood leadership talks of a year or two of transition.S. We are handling this beautifully. But there is little reason for the United States to fear a takeover by the Muslim Brotherhood.A. the United States must now publicly hold Mr. “They are only bungling things with calls for immediate reforms and against the Brotherhood. a representative Parliament. “Egypt is missing instruments essential to any functioning democracy and these must be established in the transition period — an independent judiciary. “Let the U.Q. they are connected and they will get power in the end.” both of which in recent decades have had coups on the heels of democratic elections. Mubarak now — and over the next decade real democratic reforms will be instituted. independent of the Brotherhood or any old guard opposition. “If you try to push democracy tomorrow we’ll end up like Mauritania or Sudan. their interests are mostly secular.
"There's no reason right now for any shift in military forces or anything like that." he said." he said. I've not received any orders. but that to me is hypothetical and I would defer to the political leaders. I just can't imagine the motive to shut that down. James Mattis said. .S. militarily. Feb 1.com/article/2011/02/01/us-egypt-usa-mattis-idUSTRE71086W20110201? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29)CJC The United States would respond "diplomatically. I've not requested or directed anything like that. whatever. the head of U. militarily" to any closure of the Suez Canal although such an event seems inconceivable. sees Suez Canal closure as inconceivable”. Central Command said on Tuesday. “U. 2011. These issues do not call for a military solution right now. He had been asked if the United States would be prepared to act if there were any disruptions to the key shipping channel because of instability in Egypt. "Were it to happen obviously we would have to deal with it (Reuters) diplomatically. "When you look at the fiscal impact of that (closing the canal) on whoever is in a position of authority in Egypt. Mattis said the United States had no plans to re-order its military forces in the region because of instability in North Africa." Gen. http://www.S.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 141/148 Cross-X.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – US Will Keep Suez Canal Open US is prepared to intervene to keep the Suez Canal open. economically. speaking at a London event hosted by the Policy Exchange think tank. Reuters – 2/1 (Staff." he said. "The short answer is no.reuters. economically.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 142/148 Cross-X. http://dyn.” . “There’s no leverage in cutting off a key earner. The canal and pipeline together control only about 3 percent of the world’s crude oil supply. February 1. “Egypt: Worst scenarios for W.politico.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – A2: Oil Cut-Off No Impact and No Risk that Oil gets cut off regardless who is in control in Egypt. some mitigating factors. 2011.com/printstory. They don’t need a big spike in gas prices to go along with a 20 percent hike in food prices.” said former State Department and Defense Department official Anthony Cordesman. however. And Egypt — especially the army. a Washington think tank. and they are going to need it in a hurry. POLITICO – 2/1 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico and Mike Allen is the chief political correspondent for Politico and Laura Rozen is a reporter at POLITICO.cfm?uuid=DE7516BA-D472-D8EDD73BCE853D37CED6) CJC There are.”. which guards the canal — badly needs the revenue it generates. a Middle East expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.H. “Whoever is governing is going to need money.
is whether countries like Iran and Venezuela “seize upon tight global oil system capacity to air grievances or issue proclamations. “Egypt's unrest revives debate about U.” ***A2: Aid Cuts*** . “turning a 15-hour trip into a 600-hour trip. southbound flows would still be blocked. were to be shut down for a short time.” Book said.com Thursday File A2: Suez Canal Shut Down = No Impact There is no impact to shutting down the Suez Canal. which carries 3. which carries about 600. http://thehill. “In the event of a shutdown. would come if protests in Yemen affected oil transport through the nearby Strait of Bab el-Mandab.” The real problems.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 143/148 Cross-X. The other issue of concern. however. Despite the length in transit. Restuccia – 1/31 (Andrew Restuccia. oil flowing northbound could be diverted to Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude oil pipeline. If the Suez Canal.2 million barrels of oil per day to other countries. But the analyst warned that widespread protests across the Middle East that shut down key oil supply routes could pose a threat. Book said the result would be “nontrivial.S. Energy and Environmental Reporter for The Hill.000 barrels of oil per day from Egypt to other parts of the world. oil dependency”. However. an analyst at ClearView Energy Partners. it is only if there is a spill over in the Middle East. but manageable. 01/31/11. If the Suez Canal closure lasted too long.” Book said.com/blogs/e2-wire/677e2-wire/141329-protests-in-egypt-spur-talk-of-oil-prices-drilling) CJC A leading energy analyst said Monday that a short-term shutdown of the Suez Canal would likely not result in major problems. said the biggest concern is how unrest in Egypt might affect the transport of oil. which currently runs at reduced capacity. Book said. oil would have to be rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope at the tip of Africa. reserves from International Energy Agency countries could cover any losses. Kevin Book. Book said.
2011.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC "I have a hard time seeing the politics come together in order to have a bipartisan and bicameral agreement on cutting aid to Egypt soon. director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. http://www.reuters." Alterman said.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Republican aides doubt there will be any major cuts in military aid to Egypt in the House version of an upcoming bill to fund the government from March through September 30.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – No Aid Cuts Aid will not get cut anytime soon.reuters. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell. The bill should be on the House floor by the week of February 14. "I don't think Americans have a clear view yet (of events in Egypt) and therefore it's hard for Congress to have a clear view.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 144/148 Cross-X. House . Staff. a House aide said." said Jon Alterman. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”. Staff. not enough time to cut it from the budget. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”. There will be no cuts. 2011. Feb 2. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell. leaving scant time for big policy changes. Feb 2. http://www.
Most agree that clamped down on arms to Hamas and opposed Hezbollah. Dorell – 2/14 (Oren Dorell.htm) CJC Egypt's policy toward Israel will change no matter who gains power. Abdel Fattah said. Even liberals say they will pay more attention to the Palestinians than Mubarak did. Change Egyptian policy toward Israel will change inevitably.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt Policy -> Israel Inev. "we will support Hamas like others will. Mubarak The Brotherhood wants to put Egypt's peace treaty with Israel up to a referendum. ***A2: Israel*** ***Offense*** . 2/14/2011.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 145/148 Cross-X. referring to the U." he said.S. http://www. “Ideology shadows fight to rule the new Egypt”.-designated terror group that rules Gaza. Reporter at USA TODAY.usatoday. And if the government decides to open border crossings between Egypt and the Gaza Strip. For years.com/news/world/2011-02-14-1Aegypt14_CV_N.
2011. “Egypt: Worst scenarios for W.” he said. Gregg.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 146/148 Cross-X. thinks . for one.cfm?uuid=DE7516BA-D472-D8EDD73BCE853D37CED6) CJC the looming shift away from the Camp David Accords could be a spur to peace negotiators.H.”. “This makes it clear that Israel and Palestine have to come to a significant peace agreement — sooner rather than later because there is going to be tremendous instability in Egypt for the foreseeable future. POLITICO – 2/1 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico and Mike Allen is the chief political correspondent for Politico and Laura Rozen is a reporter at POLITICO.com/printstory. http://dyn. February 1.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – Turn: Peace Process The failure of the Egypt-Israel Peace Accords would spark Israel-Palestinian deal.politico.
who are prepared to risk their lives for them. one wonders whether the Iranian people might succeed if the regime were robbed of its ability to point fingers at the West. January 31. Telhami – 1/31 ( Shibley Telhami is Anwar Sadat professor for peace and development at the University of Maryland and a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Washington is likely to be seen as attempting to control events — moving to pre-empt the public will and engineering an outcome to its liking.S. many of whom were happy to get Washington’s support to throw off their dictator but were still unhappy with U. As long as the United States has a heavy military footprint in the region. intentions put the genuine democracy advocates in the region on the defensive. When the Bush administration used the Iraq War as a vehicle to spread democratic change in the Middle East.com Thursday File Aff – Withdraw = More Democratic Reforms Large military foot print in the middle-east drives repression and will spark continued violent backlash against oppressive regimes. As we witness the remarkable and inspiring events in both Tunisia and Egypt. America’s inability to engineer political outcomes in the region — or even predict them — has been demonstrated in events ranging from the outcome of the Iraq War itself to contests for power in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories. The United States.S.S. 2011. Washington has been debating what the White House should or should not say. The United States support of repressive regimes because they are willing to support US policy means more oppression of people to keep them quiet. In any case.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 147/148 Cross-X. many democracy advocates want to see a more forceful U. The Iraq War was most telling. like the Al Jazeera network. foreign policy. one has to wonder whether these events could have taken place even earlier had there not been the diversion of the Iraq War — and whether these upheavals might have swept away Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship without shots being fired from the outside.cfm? uuid=D88A5DBE-DB47-2BCB-9B6BD331D950FDD0) CJC Ever since Egypt’s public demonstrations calling for regime change began. One reason the Tunisian revolution succeeded in toppling the president without major ramifications for the U. But let’s have no illusion about the effect of what we say on the outcome in Egypt — or throughout the Arab world. Events in Egypt are mostly out of our control. Resolving Washington’s dilemma in its relationship with authoritarian rulers in the region will not be addressed by White House speeches or even the elimination of U. is that the revolt was not viewed as directly related to the West. It is partly about that. it is that these historic and indigenous events in Egypt must not become about the United States.S. are already asking whether the Egyptian upheaval was instigated by Washington — with some “evidence” presented. But it’s deeper and more complex — as we have seen in the attitudes of the Iraqi people. The plan moves away from a large military footprint in the middle east allowing for more democratic reforms. where there is obvious public opposition to the clerical regime. including those in places supporting an Egyptian revolution. The outcome has been that. voice on behalf of regime change in Cairo. It will quite likely be mocked by Hassan Nasrallah of Hezbollah — just as he mocked France for how quickly it abandoned its client after Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali’s departure from Tunisia. is fighting wars in the Middle East and is invested in the outcome of the ArabIsraeli conflict. must side with people standing for self-determination and freedom. Even in Iran. as indicated by the contestation over the 2009 presidential election.com/printstory.S. policy in the region in the past few years. anger with the United States on foreign policy issues — particularly Iraq and the Arab-Israeli conflict — and deep suspicion of U.S. But others. the vast majority of the Arab public passionately opposed it. http://dyn. for its own sake. To be sure. we must have no illusion about how it will be spun by many Arabs.S. foreign aid. There is a sense in U. Whether President Barack Obama publicly calls for President Hosni Mubarak to resign will very likely have little effect on Arab and Egyptian public opinion. national discourse that the anger with the United States is only about its support for authoritarian governments in the region.S. does take a forceful position. If and when the U. as if American words in the middle of an upheaval that is not our doing can affect the outcome in Egypt and turn the tide of Arab public opinion in favor of the United States. Even as the United States was waging a war partly in the name of democracy. and even many . every year since the Iraq War began. “Upheaval in Egypt: Not about the U. polls of Arabs revealed their sense that the Middle East is even less democratic than before. it will continue to prefer cooperative regimes over a public will that goes against it. It’s not up to the United States to determine who the next president of Egypt will be.”.politico. This includes places like Iran. But if there is any lesson to be learned from Tunisia.S. and from the U.
The net result was that those governments that went against the will of the overwhelming majority. policy in the region — beyond what happens in Egypt. our closest institutional relationships in the Arab world. Today.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. this is a moment for a bigger assessment of U. These agencies are the anchors of repression in the region. driven by strategic U.com 148/148 Thursday File governments counseled against it — largely for fear of public opposition. are military to military.S. .S. reacted in the way they knew best: They became even more repressive. which made them even more insecure. priorities. regardless of who rules at the top. intelligence to intelligence. Given that repression now appears to be failing. security service to security service. But we insisted and we rewarded and we threatened — and got our way with most.
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