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Cross-X.com Thursday File
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley..................................................................................................................1 ***Notes***.....................................................................................................................................5 ***1NC Shell***...............................................................................................................................6 *****Uniqueness*****..............................................................................................10 *****Uniqueness*****....................................................................................................................10 UQ Ext – A2: Dip Cap Low..............................................................................................................11 UQ Ext – A2: Military Control = N/U...............................................................................................12 UQ Ext – Focused Diplomacy.........................................................................................................13 Diplomacy Focus Key....................................................................................................................15 UQ Ext – Military Diplomacy..........................................................................................................16 UQ Ext – US Has Influence Over Military.......................................................................................18 UQ Ext – Timeframe – Next Few Months Key.................................................................................19 UQ Ext – Dip. K2 Election Timing...................................................................................................20 *****Links*****.......................................................................................................20 *****Links*****..............................................................................................................................20 A2: Link Turns: Timing – (A Must Read).........................................................................................21 2NC Link Magnifier - Focus............................................................................................................22 2NC Link Magnifier – Perception....................................................................................................23 2NC Aid Link Magnifier..................................................................................................................24 Ext – Aid Link: A2 Aid Cuts Now.....................................................................................................26 Ext – Aid Link: Econ Spark Instability.............................................................................................27 2NC Links – Plan Kills Coercive Diplomacy ..................................................................................28 Link – General...............................................................................................................................30 Link – Military Change...................................................................................................................35 Link – Afghanistan ........................................................................................................................36 Links – Asia....................................................................................................................................39 Link – Japan...................................................................................................................................41 Link – South Korea.........................................................................................................................42 Link – Iraq .....................................................................................................................................43 Link – TNWs ..................................................................................................................................48 Link – Turkey.................................................................................................................................51 *****Internal Links*****..........................................................................................51 *****Internal Links*****.................................................................................................................51 2NC Ext - Dip Cap Finite – Egypt...................................................................................................52 2NC Ext – Dip Cap Finite – Middle East..........................................................................................53 2NC Ext – Dip Cap Finite...............................................................................................................54 2NC Ext – Diplomatic Capital Key – Plan Cost................................................................................56 Military K2 Secular Transition........................................................................................................57 A2: Military Not Relinquish Power.................................................................................................59 Dip. K2 Transition – Military...........................................................................................................60 Sustained Diplomacy Checks Extremist Rise.................................................................................62 Dip Cap Checks Spillover..............................................................................................................63 A2: No Influence............................................................................................................................64 *****Impact Scenarios*****.....................................................................................64 *****Impact Scenarios*****...........................................................................................................64 ***Suez Canal Shell***............................................................................................64 ***Suez Canal Shell***..................................................................................................................64
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.com 2/148 Thursday File Close Suez Canal = Price Shocks..................................................................................................66 Egypt K2 Oil Markets.....................................................................................................................67 Egypt – Military K2 Suez Canal......................................................................................................68 Impact Magnifier: Saudi Arabia.....................................................................................................69 ***Leadership Shell***..................................................................................................................70 Ext - Leadership............................................................................................................................74 ***Terrorism Shell***..............................................................................................74 ***Terrorism Shell***....................................................................................................................74 Egypt Intel = Best.........................................................................................................................76 Egypt – Counterterrorism..............................................................................................................77 Yemen Spillover............................................................................................................................78 Spillover -> Yemen = Terrorism....................................................................................................79 ***Instability Shell***.............................................................................................79 ***Instability Shell***....................................................................................................................79 Ext – Instability..............................................................................................................................81 ME Diplomacy – Bahrain & Yemen................................................................................................82 Yemen Counter Terrorism.............................................................................................................83 ***Bahrain Shell***.................................................................................................83 ***Bahrain Shell***........................................................................................................................83 Bahrain – 5th Fleet........................................................................................................................87 Bahrain Spillover -> Gulf Oil States...............................................................................................88 Egypt -> Bahrain...........................................................................................................................89 ***Israel Relations Shell***.....................................................................................89 ***Israel Relations Shell***............................................................................................................89 Israel Brink....................................................................................................................................92 A2: Brotherhood Not A Threat.......................................................................................................93 ***Muslim Brotherhood***......................................................................................93 ***Muslim Brotherhood***.............................................................................................................93 Muslim Brotherhood Pushing For Control .....................................................................................94 A2: Muslim Brotherhood Not Win Enough Seats............................................................................95 Egypt – Influence K2 Avoid Islam Rise...........................................................................................96 Brotherhood = Price Spikes...........................................................................................................98 Brotherhood = Econ Collapse........................................................................................................99 Brotherhood = ME Instability......................................................................................................100 Muslim Brother Hood Pushing For Power.....................................................................................101 Brotherhood = No MEPP..............................................................................................................102 Transition K2 Check Muslim Brotherhood....................................................................................103 A2: Muslim Brotherhood Not Threat............................................................................................104 ***Foreign Aid***.................................................................................................104 ***Foreign Aid***.........................................................................................................................104 Congress Cut Aid.........................................................................................................................105 Aid: Peaceful Transition K2 Prevent Cut......................................................................................106 Aid K2 Leverage..........................................................................................................................107 Aid K2 Arms Sales.......................................................................................................................108 Aid Cut Quickly............................................................................................................................109 Egypt – A2: No Aid Cut – Budget.................................................................................................110 Egypt – Aid On Table...................................................................................................................111
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.com 3/148 Thursday File ***Iran***............................................................................................................111 ***Iran***....................................................................................................................................111 Diplomacy = Iran Transition........................................................................................................112 ***** Affirmative Answers*****..............................................................................113 ***** Affirmative Answers*****...................................................................................................113 ***2AC F/L***..............................................................................................................................114 ***Uniqueness Ans.***..........................................................................................117 ***Uniqueness Ans.***................................................................................................................117 Aff – Egypt – N/U: Dip Cap Low....................................................................................................118 ***Link Level***...................................................................................................118 ***Link Level***...........................................................................................................................118 Iraq Aff – Link Turn......................................................................................................................119 Afghanistan Aff – Link Turn ........................................................................................................120 Iraq Aff – Link Turn......................................................................................................................122 Japan Aff – Link Turn...................................................................................................................123 Link – Link Turn – South Korea K Aff............................................................................................124 ***Internal Answers***.........................................................................................124 ***Internal Answers***................................................................................................................124 Aff – Egypt: No Influence.............................................................................................................125 Aff – Egypt: Aid =/= Influence.....................................................................................................126 Aff – Egypt – No Influence...........................................................................................................127 Aff – Egypt – No Influence: Military..............................................................................................129 ***Impact Ans.***.................................................................................................129 ***Impact Ans.***........................................................................................................................129 ***A2: Counterterrorism***...................................................................................129 ***A2: Counterterrorism***.........................................................................................................129 A2: Counterterrorism Impacts.....................................................................................................130 ***A2: Spillover/Instability***................................................................................130 ***A2: Spillover/Instability***......................................................................................................130 Aff – No Egypt Spillover...............................................................................................................131 ***A2: Iran Reform***...........................................................................................132 ***A2: Iran Reform***..................................................................................................................132 Aff – No Iran Reform....................................................................................................................133 ***A2: Muslim Brotherhood Bad***........................................................................134 ***A2: Muslim Brotherhood Bad***.............................................................................................134 Aff – Egypt – No I/L: Muslim Brotherhood....................................................................................135 Aff – Egypt – Brotherhood Won’t Run..........................................................................................136 Aff – Egypt – A2: Muslim Brotherhood Bad..................................................................................137 Aff – Egypt – A2: Muslim Brotherhood Takeover..........................................................................139 ***A2: Suez Canal***............................................................................................140 ***A2: Suez Canal***...................................................................................................................140 Aff – Egypt – US Will Keep Suez Canal Open...............................................................................141 Aff – Egypt – A2: Oil Cut-Off.........................................................................................................142 A2: Suez Canal Shut Down = No Impact.....................................................................................143
............................................145 ***A2: Israel***.......................................................................................................................................................145 ***Offense***...........................................................................................................................................................145 ***A2: Israel***......................................................147 ...................................................................................................................................................................... Change...................................................................143 Aff – Egypt – No Aid Cuts......................................com 4/148 Thursday File ***A2: Aid Cuts***...........................................145 ***Offense***.........................................................................143 ***A2: Aid Cuts***.................................144 Aff – Egypt Policy -> Israel Inev..............................145 Aff – Egypt – Turn: Peace Process..................................Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X......................................................146 Aff – Withdraw = More Democratic Reforms.................................................................................................
You are not limited to Egypt after the 1NC. you can branch out because the US is forced to deal with all of the Middle East turmoil at once as a result of Egypt allowing you to diversify and magnify your impacts. Awesome Timeframes. Carriers in the Gulf. All of the Uniqueness evidence and Internals take into account the fact that Mubarak has left power and is only talking in terms of US diplomatic response to the transition to elections. Nothing in the Status Quo or Affirmative can top the timeframe of the Link. A. and Impacts. .Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 5/148 Cross-X.S. All three happen very quickly. US diplomatic response in the Middle East as a result of the Egypt Crisis.com Thursday File ***Notes*** Why you should choose to run Egypt. The internal link evidence about our focus on Egypt is fantastic right now. C. Impact Scenarios: All of your favorites are right there at your finger-tips from the general Econ impacts from Oil Price Shocks to hyper-specific scenarios about U. this argument puts you there. B. All of these impacts feed from one source. Internal Link. D. Sometimes it is just good to be on the side of truth in the world.
The ability of the United States to reassure . Adm. CNN – 2/12 (Elise Labott and Barbara Starr. US diplomacy has been launched throughout the Middle East to deal with the transition of power to the military and future transition to democracy. is the first high-level contact between the two governments since President Hosni Mubarak resigned. military primacy and the implications that this decline would have for Australian security and stability in the Asia–Pacific. Burns." But the official added. is headed to Israel on a scheduled visit. is already familiar with the players of the council. and will visit Jordan as well. http://www. “Sustaining American Leadership with Military Power”. Australia released a defense White Paper that is concerned primarily with the potential decline of U.com Thursday File ***1NC Shell*** A. on Saturday.S.amazonaws. it is still unclear who is handling diplomatic issues." a State Department statement said. State Department officials acknowledged it has been hard to reach members of the new Egyptian government during the last 48 hours. we can have a relationship and deal with that person. Gates' sixth phone conversation with the Egyptian Defense Minister since the situation in Egypt began. Holmes.mubarak/index.. seeks diplomatic clarity in Mideast”. Recently. even as it tries to determine the composition of the Egyptian military council and the line of authority in the future Egyptian government. Clinton also is dispatching Under Secretary William Burns to Jordan to discuss "the historic events in Egypt as well as a range of other regional and bilateral issues. said a Republican congressman familiar with the administration's efforts. Michael Mullen. These developments are anything but reassuring. "We have to figure out the pecking order. While the U. Current efforts will succeed." the congressman said.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 6/148 Cross-X. “U.pdf] MGM The consequences of hard-power atrophy will be a direct deterioration of America’s diplomatic clout.com/2011/POLITICS/02/12/us. Ambassador to Egypt Margaret Scobey has had some contact with the foreign ministry. 2011. The discussion. Diplomacy is tentative requiring focused and persistent efforts to maintain diplomatic contact.S. "It's been very difficult to get information through normal diplomatic channels given the rapid changes. CNN Reporters. Diplomacy between the United States and Egypt been effectively cut off. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. 6-1. B. the No. VP for Foreign and Defense Policy Studies and Director of the David Institute for International Studies at the Heritage Foundation.S. they don't want to sit down with an American right now when they've got their whole world kind of collapsing on them as we speak. This is already on display in the western Pacific Ocean.cnn." He spoke anonymously Washington (CNN) -due to the sensitivity of the ongoing diplomacy. previously served as an ambassador to Jordan. And you can imagine. The congressman briefed reporters Friday afternoon on the condition they not use his name. and Egyptian officials said they expected the two sides to resume broader and more regular consultations this weekend. U.com/thf_media/2009/pdf/sr0052.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss %2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS%3A+Politics%29) CJC The Obama administration launched into diplomatic outreach throughout the Middle East Saturday.S." one senior State Department official said. "Whomever the Egyptians chose. and Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Mullen had some contact with their military counterparts. the official said.S. Top State Department officials are contacting every Arab foreign minister. where America’s ability to hedge against the growing ambitions of a rising China is being called into question by some of our key Asian allies. Gates spoke with Egypt's defense minister. 3 official at the State Department. "They will have to clarify who is now the head of the government.S. http://s3. U. senior officials said.d. Field Marshal Mohammed Hussein Tantawi. (Insert Specific Link or read this generic evidence) Decreasing military deployments kills diplomatic influence. and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is expected to call leaders in the region this weekend. officials said. A big unanswered question is the future of Vice President Omar Suleiman. spokesman Geoff Morrell said. Ph. February 12. 2009 [Kim. U.
senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. it is critically important that the United States focus its diplomatic efforts on issues of paramount importance to the nation. it rests on the foundation of a powerful military. Quick elections would result in a radical Egypt. Each new issue in the bag weighs it down. People talked about a new dawn for Egypt and what it took to get to this point. secretary general of Nour's liberal party. Laying the groundwork for elections The Muslim Brotherhood was founded in Egypt in 1928 . securing vital resources. former deputy director of the State Department's Near East & South Asia Intelligence Office. Montana. http://www. and defeat enemies does not rest on the strength of our political leaders’ commitment to diplomacy. . "The shorter the time before new elections. said Wael Nawara.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. coerce belligerent states. and ensuring access to foreign economies." Egyptians of all political persuasions celebrated the departure of Mubarak. Diplomatic capital is finite – each new issue trades off with existing issues Anderson & Grewell – 01 (Terry L.com 7/148 Thursday File friends. Int'l L. deter competitors. Reuel Marc Gerecht. who spent years in jail for challenging Mubarak's repressive regime. "The Muslim Brotherhood don't like music or dancing. who was forced out of the presidential palace Friday by the military and was staying at the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheik. Others say democracy in Egypt could help radicals gain power. Fall. 2001 2 Chi. surrounded by clapping onlookers. supporting our allies. gesturing to a crowd listening to blaring music outside Al Ghad's downtown office. they will stretch the resources necessary to deal with traditional international issues. J. C. . In the upper-class neighborhood of Zamalek.usatoday. Increased environmental regulations could cause countries to lessen their focus on international threats of violence. "Because diplomatic currency is finite . Only by retaining a “big stick” can the United States succeed in advancing its diplomatic priorities. members of Egypt's liberal opposition gathered Saturday night at the penthouse apartment of former presidential candidate Ayman Nour. US influence over the Egyptian military is critical to ensure there is enough time for liberal political groups to organize to prevent a takeover by the Muslim Brotherhood in elections.com/news/world/2011-02-14-1Aegypt14_CV_N. Parties that largely were banned by Mubarak. the most populous nation in the Middle East with a population of about 82 million. fish and stuffed crab under a clear night sky beside the roof-top swimming pool. Dorell – 2/14 (Oren Dorell." said Wayne White. sipped sparkling fruit juices and dined on baked shrimp. Nour talked as his guests sat on gilded armchairs. Only by building a full-spectrum military force can America reassure its many friends and allies and count on their future support. such as the Muslim Brotherhood." Nawara said. Liberals and Islamists have announced that they intend to seek power through elections that. under Mubarak. will herald a new age in a troubled region where Arab despots." D. Stanford University. 427) CJC Foreign policy is a bag of goods that includes issues from free trade to arms trading to human rights. such as the sale of ballistic missiles or border conflicts between nations. Traditionally. Politicians such as Nour. where a man danced with a gyrating woman wearing a hijab. had been rigged for years. are looking forward to running candidates openly. As countries must watch over more and more issues arising in the international policy arena. Bishop Grewell is a research associate with PERC. "Egyptians are very mellow. J. Reporter at USA TODAY. Al Ghad. Bozeman. 2/14/2011. Egyptians want a government that adheres to the universal declaration of human rights agreed to by the United Nations.htm) CJC Leaders of political parties that dominated the protest movement disagree. Many in the West are hopeful that a democratic Egypt. these priorities have been opposing hostile domination of key geographic regions. are wooing supporters. has argued that the United States should welcome the upheaval as a chance for the Arab world to modernize and allow moderate forces to gain the upper hand. “Ideology shadows fight to rule the new Egypt”. As Schaefer writes. lessening the focus on other issues and even creating conflicts between issues. according to Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq. monarchs and sheiks have presided over restive populations from which militancy and terrorism have been exported for years. the better the chance for the already well-organized Brotherhood to maximize its gains. Anderson is executive director of Political Economy Research Center ("PERC")The Center for Free Market Environmentalism. and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. 82.
plans to push for a greatly expanded student exchange program with the West so young Egyptians can learn how to development the economy. Though Egypt exports none itself.2 billion cubic feet of soil with picks and shovels—to this day it remains a conduit for roughly 8 percent of global seaborne trade. collapsing European Economies.0. Nawara says Egypt's military — which has long had close ties to the U.com 8/148 Thursday File as a strict Islamic alternative to Western influences. and place formidable levers of power in their hands. Western optimism notwithstanding." Makram-Ebeid said.5 million laborers moved more than 1. Middle East Instability. military — should remain in charge of Egypt until a civilian government is running smoothly. It inspired al-Qaeda founder Osama Bin Laden and his deputy. Energy Department still classifies it as one of the few World Oil Transit Chokepoints. as well as changes to the constitution that would lay the groundwork for elections soon. which is ruling the nation for now. Egypt's Armed Forces Supreme Council. a Coptic Christian and former member of the Egyptian parliament. war with Israel. surrounded in her office by wooden furnishings and framed oil paintings that hark to the early 20th century. The Suez Canal is one of the engineering marvels of the modern world. Mona Makram-Ebeid. The shock waves will be massive.5 percent of global oil production. announced that it had dissolved Mubarak's handpicked parliament and suspended the constitution. the U. February 2. On Monday. Control over the Suez Canal is definitely one of those levers. when Cairo was home to Jewish and Christian refugees from Europe. A sharia-based state would be "totally refused" if put to a referendum in Egypt. It cuts through 118 miles of Egyptian countryside. It spawned a radical cell that assassinated Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in 1981. “Will the Muslim Brotherhood Close the Suez Canal?”. but not a cause for fearful reaction. http://thetrumpet. she predicted. thus linking Europe with East Africa and Asia. 3 million barrels of oil and fuel products pass through the canal and the Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline. moderate ally to volatile. Muhammad Ghannem made the provocative statement to an Arabic-language Iranian news network. "They can mobilize the street. and some of their goals are similar to those that the Brotherhood supports. oil jumped to over $100 a barrel. For example.6537. Its strength. which had been packed with provisions to prevent free elections and opposition parties. He also said Egyptians should “be prepared for war against Israel.” It was a chilling peek at what might happen once the dust settles from these popular protests sweeping Egypt. The liberal parties say they also want the United States — which sends about $1. Clearly. an Egyptian and former member of the Brotherhood. and all out war. Every day. It was the first time oil hit triple digits since the record spike to $147 two years ago. which also traverses Egypt. "You counter (the Brotherhood) by allowing new parties to form without any restriction. It’s a prime example of why Europe is watching events in Egypt so intently. connecting the Red Sea with the Mediterranean. but the Brotherhood wants investment strategies to abide by Islamic law. It accounts for 5 to . who were not allowed to organize while the Brotherhood was able to do so in mosques and through its teachers and charities. A leading Muslim Brotherhood member said the Suez Canal should be immediately shut down. Hilliker – 2/2 (Joel Hilliker Columnist.S.5 billion in aid to Egypt each year — to use its influence to ensure Egyptian officers continue reforms. Allowing the Muslim Brotherhood to gain control of Egypt would result in a closure of the Suez Canal. we got a glimpse at one important reason why. The liberal parties and youth groups that kept the protests going for 20 days have a platform. Nawara says sweeping out the corrupt members of the regime is a first step toward encouraging foreign investment in Egypt that will lead to jobs. Ayman Al-Zawahiri. But the youth can mobilize more.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X." Makram-Ebeid said. both want to crack down on corruption and a culture of bribery that shopkeepers. he said. is a result of Mubarak's repression of liberals. It will embolden extremists like nothing since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.com/?q=7928. Of particular concern is oil. investors were spooked at even the thought of a disruption in energy production and shipping. That amounts to 2. radical enemy. businesses and ordinary Egyptians say has made daily life here difficult. This will revolutionize the landscape in the most combustible part of the world. Initially completed over 140 years ago—after 1. On Sunday the Brotherhood got half of what it wanted.0) CJC Almost immediately after angry Egyptians took to the streets last week." E. The Brotherhood is "a cause for concern. the Muslim Brotherhood will likely end up in power—which means the Middle East’s most populous and influential Arab country is about to lurch from relatively stable. The Brotherhood's Abdel Fattah says the group wants Egypt's army to quickly pave the way for civilian rule. 2011. About two thirds of that energy is traveling north toward Europe. oil price shocks.S.
Investors are concerned that Egypt’s instability makes ships passing through the canal more susceptible to attack.” he wrote in the Trumpet’s December 1994 edition. (43) (Since launching its own satellite in 1988. or should any Arab nation fire missiles against Israel. is the prospect of a radical. a ceasefire was imposed. Israel's current President said "The nuclear issue is gaining momentum(and the) next war will not be conventional. The United Nations. That’s the last thing a continent mired in economic problems wants. Europe has significantly reduced its dependence on Suez. It is widely reported that the principal purpose of even the threat of nuclear war. Israel no longer needs U. This time. in these economically strained. Clearly. The New York Times reported on the same possibility: “While [oil] prices are set globally.) Israeli nukes aimed at the Russian heartland seriously complicate disarmament and arms control negotiations . though. And on the other. Steinbach. as the Iraqis did. rather than a fading Britain. an associate professor at an Abu Dhabi energy-research center. which it is in our interest to avoid at all costs.. Seymour Hersh warns. also dissented."(42) Russia and before it the Soviet Union has long been a major(if not the major) target of Israeli nukes. marking its unmistakable loss of status as a great power—and the fulfillment of a biblical prophecy that it would lose control of its sea gates. 2002. and European supply—and global prices—would be “affected tremendously. The prospect of a Muslim Brotherhood government gaining control over this asset—punctuated by the explicit call for its closure by a prominent member—makes it easy to imagine a militant Egyptian government again using the canal to provoke a European power. as a result of trade in the Mediterranean and therefore with Europe. unified Europe. Disrupt these shipments. spy secrets.org/articles /0203/0331steinbachisraeli. extremely oil-dependent times. the United States broke from its British ally and came out firmly against the action. however. the players would be somewhat different. It was a massive defeat for Britain in particular. would be a surging. and Should war break out in the Middle East again.S. One could be forgiven for thinking that Ghannem’s call to close the canal was calculated to panic Europeans. anti-West government taking over Cairo and shutting the canal down altogether. in Daniel’s prophecy. MIDDLE EAST WAR WILL PRODUCE GLOBAL NUCLEAR CONFLAGRATION.” Italy’s foreign minister. And. Already this past week. “People talking about the closure of the Suez Canal are talking about a collapse of the state. a full four fifths of Western Europe’s oil was passing through it. “This in turn could cause Europe to quickly unite into the most powerful economic bloc in the world. On one side would be the Muslim Brotherhood. told the Wall Street Journal.com 9/148 Thursday File 7 percent of Europe’s oil consumption. a likelihood Barclays Capital warned of this week. In July 1956. Since that event. the Suez Canal was once before at the heart of a war. In the end. On one side was an Egyptian leader with a vision of militant pan-Arabism that put him at odds with European colonial powers. the Suez Canal remains very significant strategically. Nevertheless. current conditions resound with echoes of that history. it actually tried to assassinate Nasser). an organization sure to prove even more aggressive than Nasser was (at one time. once unthinkable except as a last resort. and unimaginably ferocious in securing the energy and other resources it needs to fuel itself. would now be a strong probability. the immediate impact of any interruption would be felt primarily in Europe. European oil prices have soared—even higher than those in America. a nuclear escalation. On the other side were the canal’s European owners. he seized control of the Suez Canal. The European empire described in biblical prophecy—and presently coalescing. “This is one of the reasons why Egypt’s stability is fundamental for the economy too. in a purposeful display of Arab strength. In fact.S.” Dalton Garis. when a unified Europe wipes out Iran.” Daniel 11:42 tells us). Franco Frattini. delaying delivery times and markedly increasing costs. " Jonathan Pollard's spying for Israel was to furnish satellite images of Soviet targets and other super sensitive data relating to U. F. In what has proven to be a terrible blunder. It is important to note that. the links between Iran and Egypt will be strong and deep by that point—so much so that Europe will feel compelled to eliminate them both in a stroke. said Monday. nuclear targeting strategy. heating oil and other distillates refined in the Middle East and shipped via the canal and pipeline” (emphasis mine)."(41) and Ezar Weissman. These differences would result in a far different outcome than the war in 1956. Colonel Gamal Nasser had taken part in a coup against the Egyptian monarchy in 1952 and then overthrown the president two years later. and control of the vital Suez Canal was yielded up to Egypt.” Remember. it violently overthrows Egypt in the process (“and the land of Egypt shall not escape. The canal was the West’s most prominent asset in the Middle East: At the time.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. which relies heavily on jet fuel. France. http://wagingpeace.. Britain and Israel responded to Nasser’s provocation by combining forces to invade. Longtime Trumpet readers are well familiar with the end-time prophecy in Daniel 11—set to be fulfilled soon—of a “push” by an Iranian-led. even amid financial troubles—is a voracious economic power. Our editor in chief has speculated about the likelihood of oil factoring into this provocation: Iran could well gain control over supplies to such an extent as to be able to drive prices to uncomfortable highs.000 miles around Africa.htm Meanwhile. Oil tankers transporting Middle East oil westward would have to travel the extra 6. Islamist Middle Eastern power (“the king of the south”) of a German-led European empire (“the king of the north”).. the existence of an arsenal of mass destruction in such an unstable region in turn has serious implications for future arms control and disarmament negotiations. beholden to Third World opinion. Worse.
if not for all out nuclear war. complicity) is not reversed soon. at the very least.the deepening Middle East conflict could trigger a world conflagration.com Thursday File and.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 10/148 Cross-X.S." *****Uniqueness***** ..for whatever reason. the unilateral possession of nuclear weapons by Israel is enormously destabilizing. In the words of Mark Gaffney.. if the familar pattern(Israel refining its weapons of mass destruction with U. ". and dramatically lowers the threshold for their actual use.
no country is too small to partner with the United States. expanded ties with China. Even as she managed a reset with Russia.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 11/148 Cross-X. either because we were too unilateral or we weren't dealing with what we needed to deal with. Labott – 2/16 (Elise Labott. “Can Clinton remake U. and deepened relationships with traditional U.cnn.com Thursday File UQ Ext – A2: Dip Cap Low Clinton efforts have restored credibility to American diplomacy. diplomacy?”. That narrative is beginning to fade. "These capital investments helped us deal with what was the biggest problem that we came in facing -.the idea that there was an American decline.S.S. "That our credibility and leadership were shot.com/2011/POLITICS/02/16/clinton. allies in Europe.sweep/index. http://www. February 16. CNN Senior State Department Producer. which has massive undeveloped fields of petroleum and natural gas. she also traveled to the tiny Pacific island of Papua New Guinea.html?iref=allsearch) CJC For Clinton." ." said Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg. 2011.
com Thursday File UQ Ext – A2: Military Control = N/U Mubarak step down just beings a new round of diplomacy with the military to ensure the transition. going. He has been defence minister for more than 20 years with a past rooted firmly in the old guard’s ruling elite.” said Jon Alterman of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.” US officials familiar with the US-sponsored Egyptian military say Tantawi. however. Qatar. . “This is just the end of the beginning. “Going. Gulf Times – 2/11 (Daily Newspaper published by Gulf Publishing & Printing Co. it praised Mubarak for resigning “in the interests of the nation” and the “martyrs” who died protesting. Doha. 2011.gulf-times. are ready to permit a democracy -. the higher military council said it would take measures for an interim phase and hoped to realise people’s hopes. “Egypt isn’t moving toward democracy. http://www. Striking the even-handed note the military has maintained throughout the crisis. GONE”.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 12/148 Cross-X. Mubarak’s veteran defence minister. 75. over how far the military under Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi. 11 February. In a statement.asp? cu_no=2&item_no=415614&version=1&template_id=57&parent_id=56) CJC There was a note of caution in the background. has long seemed resistant to change. it’s moved into martial law and where it goes is now subject to debate.com/site/topics/article.especially since the hitherto banned Islamist Muslim Brotherhood is one of the best organised forces.
latimes. A senior administration official suggested Friday that the opposition should be satisfied with Mubarak's departure and other concessions.3805635. it will happen because people come together.%20Times%20-%20Politics%29&utm_source=feedburner) CJC Obama at his most eloquent. LA Times – 2/15 (Michael A.S. 'Let us look at Egypt's example as opposed to Iran's." the president said." US must continue to keep the pressure on the Egyptian military to ensure a smooth transition to elections.com/news/politics/la-fgegypt-obama-strategy-20110213. “U. http://www. Cloud and Paul Richter. he warned them. . "This opens the door for them to begin a full dialogue. LA Times – 2/11 (David S. "We have sent a strong message to allies in the region." he said. Obama posed a plan for United States policy. but so far the country is sending "the right signals. February 15. "Real change in these societies is not going to happen because of terrorism.latimes. there is still a lot of work to be done in Egypt itself. The administration has been busy making calls to senior Egyptian officers." There were no celebrations at the White House.'' It was once more. LA Times Staff Writers. Los Angeles Times.5580994. “Obama praises Egypt." Obama said. "America can't dictate.com Thursday File UQ Ext – Focused Diplomacy Egypt still requires US diplomacy and regionally an increased role currently to deal with rising wave of protests to reassure allies. “Obama's strategy was to pressure Mubarak without intruding”. 2011.latimes. Memoli and Michael Muskal. "Each country is different. February 11. A White House aide said: "This is hardly over. "What we have seen so far is positive. we don't believe in coercion." he said.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 13/148 Cross-X.0.story? page=2&utm_medium=feed&track=rss&utm_campaign=Feed%3A%20latimes%2Fnews %2Fpolitics%20%28L.com/news/politics/la-pn-news-conference-obama-20110216.com/news/politics/lafg-egypt-us-20110212." But he also Diplomats know the situation is volatile and could easily spin out of control if they lack focus of their influence in Egypt.0.0. each country has its own traditions. "We are obviously concerned about stability. 2011. "Obviously.5736229." and the issue is to "get ahead of change. we don't believe in violence. Los Angeles Times Reporters." Obama said Egypt is going to require help in developing democratic institutions.A. talks budget at news conference”. February 13. faces critical test of influence on Egypt”." Noting that a wave of protests has spread across the region." Obama said people should have a right to express their opinions in public.story? track=rss) CJC The question-and-answer session was Obama's first solo press conference since late December and gave reporters a chance to question the president on economic issues and to more fully probe the president's views on the situation in Egypt and other prodemocracy movements throughout the Arab world. trying to keep the pressure on. "The world is changing. and say there are clear limits to Washington's influence on key players in Cairo. 2011. which have been stifled by the government. He would be watching. no champagne toasts on the Truman Balcony like the one Obama hosted after Congress passed his healthcare overhaul last year. lauding Egyptian demonstrators who peacefully "bent the arc of history toward justice included a pointed message for the military leaders who now were in charge. LA Times – 2/13 (Peter Nicholas. But State U." Obama said in the wake of the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak and the takeover of government by the army.' " Obama also argued that change was an ongoing process." but "there are certain universal principles we adhere to. He drew a contrast between the demonstrations in Egypt and those in Iran. for a "transition that is credible in the eyes of the Egyptian people. http://www.S. http://www.story?track=rss) CJC diplomats also acknowledge that events could still easily spin out of control given Egypt's lack of experience with democracy.
5 billion in aid every year.3805635. and preserving that flow — as well as the Egyptian military's longstanding ties with the Pentagon — is likely to be a major goal for the country's new leaders. commending the army for not firing upon the vast crowds protesting Mubarak's continued rule. faces critical test of influence on Egypt”. But even as Obama hailed the triumph of democracy in the Cairo streets. said that the Obama administration was already reaching out to other Middle Eastern allies to warn that they should respond to calls for reform to avoid the same sort of upheaval seen in Egypt. Tom Malinowski. After days of being buffeted by events.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.com 14/148 Thursday File Department officials warned that political reform will be a "medium term" undertaking. and laying out a clear path to elections that are fair and free.0.S. Martin Luther King Jr. revising the constitution and other laws to make this change irreversible. . Yet the U. LA Times – 2/11 (David S. requiring Egyptians to now build a democracy almost from scratch. The task is difficult because Mubarak brutally suppressed any party that threatened his stranglehold on power. Los Angeles Times Reporters." "That means protecting the rights of Egypt's citizens. Now it must deal with another daunting task: coaxing the country's new military rulers to deliver genuine democratic reforms they have resisted for decades. Washington director for Human Rights Watch. Obama appeared to reach out to the military in his White House address.S. It provides Egypt with $1. is not without leverage.story?track=rss) CJC The Obama administration got what it said it wanted when Hosni Mubarak surrendered power. http://www. 2011. the Berlin Wall's crumbling." Obama said. He drew a link between the rebellion that began Jan. Mubarak's departure threatens to end 30 years of certainty in which American administrations could count on Egypt maintaining its 1979 peace treaty with Israel. President Obama moved quickly within hours of Mubarak's departure to try to influence the Egypt that will follow. In a seven-minute address from the White House. Obama made it clear that the U. his administration was adjusting to the loss of a bedrock ally in a volatile region. as well as cooperating on counter-terrorism efforts. lifting the emergency law.latimes. 25 and some of the epochal political movements of the 20th century: Gandhi's nonviolent struggle for India's independence. Cloud and Paul Richter.S.com/news/politics/lafg-egypt-us-20110212.'s fight for racial equality in the United States. But he reserved most of his praise for the protesters. “U. requiring time to develop and nurture institutions that will give the country a stable and inclusive political process. US is using the full force and speed of its diplomacy to handle the transition in Egypt. warning they would "have to ensure a transition that is credible in the eyes of the Egyptian people. expects the Egyptian generals to dismantle the machinery of a repressive state. February 11.
“She’s the obvious choice to adopt this role.” according to a senior administration official.politico. Bush’s ambassador to Israel. But Clinton. who entered Foggy Bottom without the policy agenda of many of her predecessors. known for relying on a tight circle of foreign policy advisers based in the West Wing and Vice President Joe Biden’s office. and that’s critical at a time when the administration is presented with so few good alternatives. has turned to Clinton in the past for advice and to serve as the public face for the administration’s policies. “You need someone out there who understands the complexity of this situation.” adds Kurtzer. It requires “all hands on deck” to manage the situation. http://www. “Hillary Clinton plays key role in dance with Hosni Mubarak”. “And she’s one of the only people who could step in.” in the words of one former State Department higher-up. has never occupied such a central role in such an unpredictable situation. who can speak authoritatively at a time of rapid staff turnover in the West Wing. But it’s also because the pragmatic Clinton is “one of the few remaining grown-ups.” says Daniel Kurtzer who served as ambassador to Egypt under Bill Clinton and as President George W. February 2. 2011.” . She knows all of these players very well.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 15/148 Cross-X.com/news/stories/0211/48658.html) CJC Obama. That’s because the administration has never faced a foreign crisis of this magnitude that requires “all hands on deck.com Thursday File Diplomacy Focus Key Clinton and her diplomacy team are critical to a successful transition. Thrush – 2/2 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico.
McManus – 2/13 (Doyle McManus. http://www. 2011. February 13. Mohamed ElBaradei.S.html) CJC Pentagon officials are using public praise and private phone calls to help the Obama administration maintain connections and influence with the Egyptian military. “Mission not yet accomplished”. reporter for Bloomberg News.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military. Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Admiral Mike Mullen. Lifting the state of emergency that’s been in effect for 30 years and given power to security forces would “send a powerful signal throughout the society.bloomberg. International Atomic Energy Agency who has offered himself as a transitional leader. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military. The connections may be critical in the coming weeks and months as Egypt’s Supreme Council of the Armed Forces directs a process toward elections and democratic rule. according to Pentagon spokesmen Geoff Morrell and Navy Captain John Kirby. for its part. http://www. who wasn’t authorized to speak publicly on the calls. 11 and promised a transition to democracy.latimes. will push for a swift transition to a full and free democracy. backing. it's unlikely the generals. has proposed a three-man "presidential council" with only one of the seats reserved for the military. As Gates and Mullen have tried to keep on top of events in Egypt.S. http://www.com Thursday File UQ Ext – Military Diplomacy Dealing with the Egyptian crisis is requiring huge amounts of military diplomatic capital. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. the former chief of the U.S.S. 2011. “Public Praise. U.com/news/opinion/commentary/laoe-mcmanus-column-egypt-20110213.0. including training of Egyptian officers at elite U.N. which took control of the country Feb. Gates and other top U. Diplomacy will require continued aid.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 16/148 Cross-X.S. after President Hosni Mubarak ceded his powers to it Feb. officials met with Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak at the White House this week. though they've promised constitutional changes. “In both countries. have made regular telephone calls to their counterparts. has reported on national and international issues from Washington for more than 25 years. The inevitable messiness of the ensuing process will present hard choices for the . has established relationships between the two forces and made pressure unnecessary so far. He is also calling for the drafting of a wholly new constitution and elections within a year. energy and patience. military schools. Military diplomacy with Egypt is critical to ensuring a stable transition. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. “Public Praise. Military if left to their own devices will not transition to democracy. said the official. military official said on condition of anonymity. But Egypt's next step is far from certain.column) CJC Left to their own devices. Washington columnist for the Los Angeles Times. military’s commitment to that partnership. who provided few details on the substance of the conversations.” he said. The calls aren’t intended to pressure the Egyptian military to do anything specific. Mullen will attend a ceremony marking the end of Israeli Lieutenant General Gabi Ashkenazi’s term as chief of staff.html) CJC “The military.” said Daniel Kurtzer.S. Our success relies on our military diplomacy to reassure allies that we have their back.” Kirby said. President Barack Obama’s top military adviser. and Mullen headed to Jordan and Israel to meet with senior civilian and military leaders there yesterday and today. a former ambassador to Egypt who is a lecturer at Princeton University. is going to have to show some results right away. they’ve also sought to reassure allies and partners in the region of U. Feb 13.bloomberg. Decades of ties. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger.3212459. 11. an end to the repressive state of emergency and new elections. Feb 13. 2011. a U. he will discuss security issues of mutual concern and reassure both these key partners of the U. reporter for Bloomberg News.
including for both Egypt and Israel. Sen. the United States will help. Taking advantage of that opening." he said.S. "They must know that they will continue to have a friend in the United States of America. are in tension.S.)." he said. he added. while not contradictory. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. will require money. It's a pity that such an opportunity has arrived when we seem to be short of all three. http://www. Rand Paul (R-Ky. the Facebook insurgents in Tahrir Square or even the Muslim Brotherhood — won't be as strongly pro-U." and why Obama felt it necessary. political parties have sought for decades. “Public Praise. said that the U. The administration wants more from Egypt than just democracy. its close military relationship with the U. Influence over the military is critical to ensure that transition is stable. "Nothing less than genuine democracy will carry the day.S. energy and patience." Obama said.S. leverage — at the same time.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military.S.html) CJC Negroponte. the leader of the Senate's new "tea party" caucus. officials used most often over the last 18 days was "orderly. has proposed eliminating foreign aid entirely. Bush. But that was a promise that may be difficult to keep. Feb 13." They administration is understandably concerned that Egypt's next political leaders — whether they turn out to be the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. such as revising the constitution and enabling multiple political parties. it also want to maintain Egypt's stability. to add the democracy-friendly modifier "genuine. the first U. Some of those same House Republicans pressed the State Department last week to bar the Muslim Brotherhood from playing any role in a new Egyptian government.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. aid — and thus U.S. including the programs that would help Egyptian democracy. popular in Tahrir Square. John on CNN’s “State of the Union” yesterday . President Obama said last week that he hoped Egypt's democratization would be both "orderly and genuine. in the House has already proposed deep cuts in foreign aid. Obama made a start on that process with his when he praised Egypt's military for its role as "caretaker to the state" but pointedly defined its mission now as guaranteeing a real transition. it may prove difficult to convince Egypt's democrats that the United States was on their side all along. The new Republican majority statement Friday. a move that wouldn't make the U. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”.S government will “play a role of holding the military’s feet to the fire” to ensure it makes democratic reforms. 2011. "We stand ready to provide whatever assistance is necessary." He must know that those two goals. and its peace with Israel. which leaders of both U. And. That's why the word U. Others would cut Egypt but spare Israel. Anwar Sadat. as Mubarak was. director of national intelligence under President George W. advise and aid countries that are moving toward democracy in the world's most dangerous region. They didn't explain how to do that while reducing U.S.S.bloomberg. as late as Thursday. The insurgencies in Egypt and Tunisia have presented the United States with an extraordinary opportunity: a chance to nudge. But after more than 30 years of support for the military governments of Mubarak and his predecessor.com 17/148 Thursday File Obama administration too. reporter for Bloomberg News.
"Whatever the motivations for the Egyptian military's move against Mubarak – clearly they told him he had to go – U. Feb.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 18/148 Cross-X.S. "The U.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20110211/egypttransition-us-role-110211/20110211/?hub=WinnipegHome) CJC Basham. told CTV News Channel that the Egyptian military finally pushed the president out.S." he said.ca News Staff-Canada. The Egyptian military certainly has good relations with the United States. http://winnipeg. influence played no small part.com Thursday File UQ Ext – US Has Influence Over Military US has influence over the military. director of the Washington-based Democracy Institute. It forced them to push out Mubarak. in part because of American influence. 11 2011." Patrick .ctv. C-TV News – 2/11 (CTV. but is very much aware that it is the United States that is paying the bill that affords them the prestige and the influence in Egyptian politics that they enjoy. taxpayer basically funds the Egyptian military and has done so for many years. “Obama pledges to help Egypt transition to democracy”.
soldiers clashed with demonstrators who were reluctant to go home. “The Roar of the Crowd”. and the army even threatened to arrest those who refused to leave. In France. .slate. 2011. Feb. It's not remotely surprising that demonstrators keep returning to Tahrir Square after Mubarak's resignation. the essence of crowd euphoria is the feeling that one is part of something greater than oneself. Historically. Online activism is not a substitute for real activism.com/id/2285041/?from=rss) CJC Coming down from the high of a crowd experience and returning to the humdrum ordinariness of an individual life can never be easy. described as unemployed. By whatever means possible. Now the country's leaders must help channel all that enthusiasm into institutional change.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 19/148 Cross-X. On Sunday and Monday. As Le Bon understood. planning an election campaign. A letdown is inevitable. The satisfaction one receives from Twitter is not the same satisfaction one receives from spending hours in a room with a group of people. the army should encourage the formation of political parties. Disaster and dictatorship are not inevitable. 14. not just to celebrate but to demand more: "We won't leave because we have to make sure this country is set on the right path. Her most recent book is Gulag: A History. Disappointment in the slow pace of post-revolutionary change cannot be avoided. staring at the wall. but if Egypt is to avoid either a coup d'etat or a return to mob rule. especially if one has been part of a crowd for almost three weeks. the soldiers now ruling the country will have to do more than send everyone home. not next month or next year but right now." declared one protester. The dissatisfaction with the February revolution of 1917 led to the Bolshevik coup d'etat in October of that year. the creation of citizens' committees. the building of neighborhood watch groups and clean-up brigades—anything to prevent those unemployed men in Tahrir Square from going home. the mob kept resurrecting itself in the years following 1789 (a tradition that continues into the present). and then slumping down again in front of Facebook or Al Jazeera. Applebaum – 2/14 (Anne Applebaum is a Washington Post and Slate columnist. the months following a revolution can therefore be more dangerous than the revolution itself.com Thursday File UQ Ext – Timeframe – Next Few Months Key Next few months are critical to ensure that Egypt does not collapse. http://www.
democracy/) CJC The Obama administration has shown a consistent preference for inclusive agreements among all significant factions on basic election principles. which has observed 82 elections in 34 countries. The Islamist movement is "inherently anti-democratic. with an implementation strategy and timetable.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 20/148 Cross-X.usatoday. *****Links***** .htm) CJC Pipes. sustain these agreements. more importantly. “Ideology shadows fight to rule the new Egypt”." because leaders reject democratic laws that run counter to Islamic texts — but Islamists are willing to use elections to gain power. hospitals and aid programs for the poor. February 16. Egypt's old Wafd and newer liberal and Daniel reform parties "may have a tough slog" reaching out. they will foment a revolution along the lines of Iran's in 1979. the ruling Islamists' belief in God's sovereignty trumps political participation by the masses. to lend their support.cnn.com Thursday File UQ Ext – Dip. 2011. Elections now mean they gain control because they are already well organized. especially if not given enough time to organize. http://www. Reporter at USA TODAY. 2/14/2011. It has engaged in the hard work of quiet diplomacy to encourage and. Stremlau – 2/16 (John Stremlau is vice president for peace programs at the nonprofit Carter Center. The movement may already be the bestorganized opposition group because of a network of charities. Pipes said. “Two vital steps on path to democracy in Egypt”. including regional organizations and the United Nations. And it has welcomed the growing role of domestic and international nongovernmental organizations willing and able to support the process.com/news/world/2011-02-14-1Aegypt14_CV_N. In Iran. while facilitating as many international partners as possible.com/2011/OPINION/02/15/stremlau. especially to Egypt's large lower class. K2 Election Timing Continued focused diplomacy is critical to ensure credible elections. http://www. that is why timing is everything.egypt. editor of the Middle East Forum. Radicals will use elections to gain power. says if radical Islamists come to power. White said. The group's grass-roots network is a source of power that liberals may have a hard time countering. Dorell – 2/14 (Oren Dorell.
and she would like to support the president in advancing American values. "She respects what the people had to do to go out in (Tahrir Square).issues which remain close to her heart. as a long list of foreign policy issues becomes the province of the State Department. "She feels the overwhelming weight of it. she wants to stay true to the themes of political.S. Labott – 2/16 (Elise Labott.S. Progress in creating a credible Afghan government and sustainable economy has also been an uphill battle. In addition to moving forward with engaging North Korea in the coming months. and political reconciliation among the Taliban and other militant groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan. but NO issue will currently take a back seat to our effort in Egypt in the near future. interests and security in a region that is going through real transformation. “Can Clinton remake U. It will largely fall to Clinton to advance the strategy that she and Holbrooke envisioned. "The secretary is going to roll up her sleeves.S. While Mubarak has left the political scene. And she must save the stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace talks from becoming a permanent casualty of recent events. involvement in Iraq.html?iref=allsearch) CJC If the first six weeks of 2011 are any indicator.S. economic and social reforms and respect for human rights that she pressed for in Qatar. with Karzai an unreliable partner. when the impact is triggered in the short term. particularly when it comes to foreign aid. Clinton will be doing a lot more juggling. Clinton will also need to work closely with allies about increasing pressure on Iran over its nuclear program.cnn. And down the road. CNN Senior State Department Producer." But Clinton knows the push for democracy is fraught with risk. It's a personal challenge that speaks to the dilemma she has faced since becoming secretary of state. February 16. can nurture and facilitate a military-led transition." talking to European and Arab allies about how the U. The timing of withdraw would undermine near term focus on Egypt.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 21/148 Cross-X.com Thursday File A2: Link Turns: Timing – (A Must Read) Other issues will move forward diplomatically. Since Mubarak stepped down. regional involvement.S." Mills said. which has quickly become the first major foreign policy crisis for the Obama administration. http://www. On one hand. will not abandon important and longtime allies.com/2011/POLITICS/02/16/clinton. she and the State Department will assume full responsibility for U. spread like wildfire to Cairo and which are now permeating throughout the region -. Rolling up her sleeves Yet no issue will likely demand more of Clinton's time in the near future than the political upheaval in Egypt. troops come home at the end of the year. it is really the beginning. The long-term is irrelevant. Clinton is said to have been in a "war-room mentality. In the coming weeks Clinton will have to defend her smart power efforts before Republicans in Congress intent on taking an ax to President Obama's budget. That will take time as well as diplomatic dexterity. Their link turns do not assume the refocusing to the Egypt crisis. for Clinton. "She sees this as one of the most significant strategic projects of the Obama presidency. when the remainder of U. director of policy planning and deputy chief of staff. diplomacy?”. marrying the fragile and reversible military gains with a political process that includes international diplomacy. the chapter on Egypt's march toward democracy is far from complete.sweep/index. In fact." said Jake Sullivan. yearnings which were ignited in Tunisia. She is mindful of regional stability and wants to reassure other Middle East governments that the U. 2011." . This link is a timing issue.
The challenges.politico. (they) remind us all of how crucial it is to have top-notch leadership on the ground.html) CJC As Obama kept close tabs on the deepening crisis.S.” . “Obama huddles with aides on Egypt”. with what’s going on today. 2011. Thrush – 2/2 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico. February 2.S. recent events in Egypt and certainly in that broader region. diplomats the pitched street battles erupting in Cairo and elsewhere have pushed the country into “uncharted territory.S. “There are too many forces at work. she said. include the possibility of instability in other countries. more WikiLeaks revelations and pressure from Congress to cut the State Department’s budget. “As we see. They need all of the focus they have to deal with the Egyptian crisis. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned U.” she added.Focus US Diplomats are at the breaking point and barely able to keep up with the current situations on their plates. And how quickly that ground can shift under our feet.com Thursday File 2NC Link Magnifier .com/news/stories/0211/48700. diplomats. http://www. some of which we are only beginning to understand. who has become the administration’s public face during the crisis.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 22/148 Cross-X. ambassadors that the current crisis was part of a “tough road ahead” for U.” Clinton. warned a gathering of U.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 23/148
Cross-X.com Thursday File
2NC Link Magnifier – Perception
US credibility for diplomacy is hanging by a thread in the Middle East. Perception of US backing away again would crush any influence that we have. CBS News – 2/11 (Ken Millstone, Staff Reporter; “Diplomat: Egypt Dislikes Suleiman's "Slimy Background"; February 11, 2011; http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20031554503544.html) CJC Ambassador Edward Peck, a career diplomat who served in Egypt and Tunisia, said that Suleiman
in many ways takes an even harsher and more authoritarian view of power than Mubarak. "He's been involved in a number of things that the people of Egypt do not like," including being the CIA's point man for the rendition and torture of terror suspects in Egypt, Peck said. He said Suleiman has "kind of a slimy background." Mubarak ceded power not to Suleiman but to the Egyptian armed forces and it is not clear what Suleiman's eventual role will be, if any. Still, Suleiman is a former military and intelligence officer with close ties to the military power structure. He "is always going to be a little trickle of saliva" that could be slurped back up into power at any time, Peck said. With or without Suleiman, a transition to democracy is no certainty, Peck
"It just takes one or two generals to say, 'Hey I kind of like being in charge.' That's happened before." Peck suggested that the U.S. has strained its credibility with other Arab world leaders by its somewhat erratic response to the events in Egypt - seemingly shifting allegiance to whatever actor seemed to be in the lead. "We have a just a tattered thread in that part of the world of the respect and reliability that we used to think we enjoyed on a regular basis," Peck said.
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2NC Aid Link Magnifier
(_) Aid Package Link: A. And, Independently of influence over the Egyptian military, the US is negotiating an international aid package that would be critical to ensuring a smooth transition because the protests have gutted its economy. Richter – 2/14 (Paul Richter, Tribune Washington Bureau Reporter; “Obama administration seeks emergency financial package for Egypt”; Feb. 14, 2011; http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2011/02/14/1867987/obama-administration-seeksemergency.html) CJC Amid calls in Washington for sharp cuts in foreign aid, the Obama administration is seeking an emergency financial package for Egypt, fearing that further strains on its economy could thwart Cairo's fledgling reform effort almost before it begins. U.S. officials have been working international partners to seek pledges for a package, probably worth several hundred million dollars, as well as money to help build political parties and other democratic institutions, say U.S. and foreign diplomats. Public anxiety over Egypt's struggling economy, including high unemployment and rising prices, was one of the key drivers of an 18-day uprising that toppled former President Hosni Mubarak, who resigned on Friday. Now that Mubarak is gone, analysts say Egyptians may be overly optimistic in expecting rapid economic improvements. Michele Dunne, a Mideast specialist who has advised the Obama administration on Egypt in recent weeks, said the economy is "one of the greatest vulnerabilities for a country that's in a transition like this." The Egyptian finance ministry has estimated that the unrest cost the economy about $310 million a
WASHINGTON day, and some private analysts have estimated that investors have been withdrawing investment at a rate of about $1 billion a day. Annual economic growth of 5 percent was predicted for Egypt before the demonstrations; now the consensus is closer to 1 percent. Dunne, now with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said if Egyptians have unreasonable
expectations about economic opportunities and instead conditions worsen, "it could really sour relations between people" and the transitional government. U.S. officials, who have been consulting widely on Egypt in recent days, declined to discuss their aid goals in details, saying they are in the early stages of discussions. They said they expect international development banks may also play a part in the aid.
B. Economic aid package to Eygpt would give positive light to the US with the Egyptian population, undercutting Muslim Brotherhood influence and message they would use to gain control. Bryen – 2/11 (Shoshana Bryen is senior director for security policy at The Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs in Washington; “Egypt needs more U.S. aid, not less”; 2/11/11; http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0211/49384.html) CJC Two factors may force the Administration to reconsider the size and scope of the aid. First is the attitude of the Egyptian people toward the United States. Though there has been little overt antiAmericanism in the demonstrations, Egyptians are acutely aware that U.S. aid largely flows to the military — with little benefit to them. The Muslim Brotherhood, with its network of religious schools and social programs, has capitalized on the difference between U.S. military aid and religiously inspired social services. It is not surprising that a recent Pew survey shows Egyptians preferring Islamic
government to “those who would modernize the country,” by 59 to 27 percent, and attitudes toward Americans running nearly 4:1 negative. The demonstrations and looting during the protests have wreaked havoc on the
Egyptian economy and capital is expected to flow out as soon as the banks reopen. The answer to “how much” may be sent abroad no one knows, but estimates run into the hundreds of millions at a minimum. Emergency food and economic stabilization aid from America could help average Egyptians see the United States as a benefactor and remove one anti-American prop from the Muslim Brotherhood and from Iran. Second is what the Egyptian military has acquired over the years.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.com 25/148 Thursday File The U.S. permitted Egypt to buy systems that directly threaten Israel – Harpoon Block II anti-ship missiles, for example – with little opposition from Israel or its friends in Congress because of Mubarak’s commitment to the peace treaty. Should the Muslim Brotherhood take a commanding position in a multi-party interim government, an implacable enemy of both Israel and the United States will have at least some say in the use of those military assets. Elsewhere in
the region, Hezbollah never won a majority in any Lebanese election, but imposes its will on the Lebanese government by threat of force — and now has a say in the operation of the U.S.-supported Lebanese Armed Forces. In a similar situation,
Washington would have no choice but to suspend military aid and cooperation with Egypt — with the loss of benefits to the United States that implies.
" Clinton said. Continued diplomacy is critical to building international support for the aid package. “Obama administration seeks emergency financial package for Egypt”.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 26/148 Cross-X. Tribune Washington Bureau Reporter. in a said the United States was committed to offering aid that was needed by Egypt "to pursue a credible and orderly transition to democracy." said Stephen McInerney. the European Union's foreign affairs chief.com/2011/02/14/1867987/obama-administration-seeksemergency. a spokeswoman for Lady Catherine Ashton. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton met with House Speaker John Boehner. most of it going to the Egyptian military." The U. executive director of the Project on Middle East Democracy. Yet the overthrow of Mubarak has been welcomed by Democrats and Republicans.com Thursday File Ext – Aid Link: A2 Aid Cuts Now Aid package will pass in the US despite calls for cuts in the Aid budget. said the EU is considering the possibility of aid. must promote stability in countries such as Egypt or "we will pay a higher price later in crises that are allowed to simmer and boil over into conflicts.html) CJC The U. President Barack Obama. The Obama administration is trying to prevent Republicans from imposing steep cuts on foreign aid.5 billion per year. trying to work out a common position on how to encourage democratic change in Egypt. and some analysts predict there will be bipartisan support for at least some increase in Egypt's aid.S. R-Ohio. 2011. Clinton said she hopes that as Congress considers "the national security and economic consequences of these cuts. Feb.bellinghamherald. currently gives Egypt about $1. "I think they'll feel this cause is worth it. Europe and elsewhere. on Monday and expressed her concern about proposed reductions for the State Department and aid programs. who are already struggling with severe austerity budgets. statement last weekend. . 14. Maja Kocijancic. Richter – 2/14 (Paul Richter. including by working with international partners to provide financial support." The aid discussions have come at a time when the administration has been reaching out to allies in the Middle East.S. perhaps through loans by the European Investment Bank. http://www. an EU international finance arm. The push for more aid comes at a difficult time for the United States and many allies. it has bipartisan support. they will chart a different course.
com/article/SB10001424052748703373404576148073209074728. the official Egyptian state news agency. " Treasury Calls for Scrutiny of Egypt ".Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 27/148 Cross-X. WSJ 2/17 (Jay Solomon. as labor strikes continued and school openings were delayed. Strikes could add to mounting economic woes. The labor crisis has been the most formidable challenge for the country's new military leaders and threatens to pierce a fragile calm that has prevailed since political protests ended Friday after nearly three weeks. as employees protest poor wages and demand that bank leaders be prosecuted for alleged corruption. Meanwhile.wsj.com Thursday File Ext – Aid Link: Econ Spark Instability Egypt economic issues continued would spark another wave of instability. according to MENA.html) Egypt's new military rulers faced growing hurdles in their efforts to restore normalcy to the country. Egypt's stock exchange again delayed its opening. http://india. Banks said they won't reopen until Sunday. 2/17/11. . Matt Bradley. pushing it to Monday.
com Thursday File 2NC Links – Plan Kills Coercive Diplomacy Obama needs to strengthen the military – the perception of declining commitments kills our diplomatic influence. Australia released a defense white paper concerned primarily with the potential decline of U. Office of the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Strategy. though only indirectly related to presence. Mr. to intervene on their behalf any time. The threat. Ph." Decrease in US military presence directly trades-off with diplomatic influence. military primacy and its implications for Australian security and stability in the Asia-Pacific. For America to be an effective leader and arbiter of the international order. If our country allows its hard power to wane. The next British leader . of the withdrawal of forces is present. where America's ability to hedge against the growing ambitions of a rising China is being called into question by some of our key Asian allies. An ally's reliance on U. This is already on display in the western Pacific Ocean. and you don't take them seriously by wishing away the necessity. 6-12.S. when negotiating trade policy and burden-sharing with Japan. The United States can succeed in advancing its priorities by diplomatic means only so long as it retains a "big stick. Obama appears not to understand. of using the hard power of force to settle things. no less than 4 percent of the nation's gross domestic product on defense. deter competitors. It's this connection of hard to soft power that Mr. military relationship (technology transfers and port visits) with that country. VP for Foreign and Defense Policy Studies and Director of the David Institute for International Studies at the Heritage Foundation." Only by building a full-spectrum military force can America reassure its many friends and allies and count on their future support.“The Importance of Hard Power”. The ability of the United States to reassure friends. http://www. our leaders will lose crucial diplomatic clout. coerce belligerent states.org/Research/Commentary/2009/06/The-importance-of-hard-power] MGM The problem here is not merely an overconfidence in the process of "talking" and trying to achieve "mutual understanding" . as well as in talks on trade policy and political reform in the ROK. Obama's next proposed defense budget and Secretary of defense Robert M. That requires resources: spending. 2009 [Kim.and the rest of our allies . 5]MGM political effect of presence is that it augments diplomatic influence.S. presence to deter a threat and the positive effects of assurance derived from deterrence can be used in diplomatic negotiations through linking the topic of negotiations to the continuation of that presence.heritage. 1991 [Daniel and Jonathan. and Force Development AND **member of the Center for Naval Analyses assigned to III Marine Expeditionary Force. Unfortunately. it rests on the foundation of a powerful military. Gates' vision for "rebalancing" the military are drastically disconnected from the broad range of strategic priorities that a superpower like the United States must influence and achieve.as if diplomacy were merely about communications and eliminating hurt feelings. Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of defense for Strategy. That will require hard power. it is about the interaction and sometimes clash of hardened interests and ideologies.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 28/148 Cross-X." But since becoming president he has done little to demonstrate an actual commitment to forging a policy that combines America's military power with diplomatic strategies.d. explicit or implicit. Holmes. Plans. Recently.S.. These developments are anything but reassuring. strategy. In what is becoming a signature trait of saying one thing and doing another. it must be willing to maintain a world-class military. Military Presence in the Asian-Pacific Region”. Senior Executive Service and principal director.S. Similarly. Mr. diplomatic words murmured whilst strolling serenely along "Obama Beach.8 The third . Center for Naval Analysis.S.need to know they can count on the U. These are serious matters. when need be. Obama has argued that America must "combine military power with strengthened diplomacy. for example. Chiu & Dworken. “The Political Effects of U. not just soft. Rather. on average. a link exists between reform in the PRC and the U. April. and defeat enemies does not rest on the strength of our political leaders' commitment to diplomacy. anywhere it has to. pg.
23] MGM Note: This is a footnote explaining diplomatic presence and US military presence 8. Plans.S. Office of the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Strategy. strategy. 1991 [Daniel and Jonathan. April. Center for Naval Analysis.S. When the perceived threats decline. so does the value of U. making the leverage in negotiations slim. There is a severe limitation to this effect. Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of defense for Strategy. and Force Development AND **member of the Center for Naval Analyses assigned to III Marine Expeditionary Force.com Thursday File Pulling out when threats are high wrecks our influence. . Chiu & Dworken. Senior Executive Service and principal director. “The Political Effects of U. presence.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 29/148 Cross-X. at best. pg. Military Presence in the Asian-Pacific Region”.
armed forces standing the watch in almost every latitude and time zone has calmed regional rivalries and dissuaded armed escalations for sixty years.edu/Publications/Naval-War-CollegePress/Newport-Papers/Documents/26-pdf. Mr. 2009 (Kim Holmes.d. Only by retaining a “big stick” can the United States succeed in advancing its diplomatic priorities. assets. These developments are anything but reassuring. where America’s ability to hedge against the growing ambitions of a rising China is being called into question by some of our key Asian allies. At the same time. Rarely to be found among these major tasks will be any large-scale updating. Reducing military presence prompts State Department intervention – focuses diplomatic efforts on minimizing effects of the aff. Holmes.com/thf_media/2009/pdf/sr0052. Bloomfield previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (1992-93).usnwc. These are national commitments.pdf) The consequences of hard-power atrophy will be a direct deterioration of America’s diplomatic clout. the fielding of powerful and complex weapons systems. this initiative is inescapably. indeed overwhelmingly. and an annual budget now surpassing $400 billion. and the promulgation of defense and security strategies to prepare for and deter threats to the national interest. the Rio Treaty.S. The Global Defense Posture Review (GDPR) is such an undertaking. or reconfiguration of an organizational empire that includes well over two million soldiers and civilians. and the sight of U. resident in allied populations in more than fifty countries by latest count. coerce belligerent states. “Sustaining American Leadership with Military Power”. For all the calculations of greater efficiency and utility that commend the idea of reconfiguring America’s global military footprint.. this massive exercise in managerial housekeeping by the secretary of defense cannot be viewed exclusively as one cabinet executive’s effort to make more productive use of the people. that America is committed—via the North Atlantic Treaty. political in terms of its effect on the rest of the world. http://s3. Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century. This is already on display in the western Pacific Ocean. Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs (1991-92). and defeat enemies does not rest on the strength of our political leaders’ commitment to diplomacy. and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs (1988-89) among other policy positions in the Defense Department dating to 1981. they will of course cite the prosecution of wars both hot and cold.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 30/148 Cross-X. Ph. “Reposturing the Force: U. To think otherwise would be to overlook the belief. the Philippines. deter competitors. http://www.com Thursday File Link – General Decreasing military deployments kills diplomatic influence. excites foreign . The ability of the United States to reassure friends.L. 6-1-2009.S.aspx] An Ambitious Concept When historians look back on the Defense Department’s biggest undertakings during its first six decades of existence. Recently. solemnly made. 2006 [Lincoln. streamlining. A global posture realignment that involves moving large numbers of those sentries and their weapons inevitably begs the most urgent of security questions. approximately five thousand facilities spread all over the country and the world. Former US Special Envoy for Man-Portable Air Defense Systems Threat Reduction. it rests on the foundation of a powerful military. Bloomfield. VP for Foreign and Defense Policy Studies and Director of the David Institute for International Studies at the Heritage Foundation. military primacy and the implications that this decline would have for Australian security and stability in the Asia–Pacific.” Chapter 3: Politics and Diplomacy of the Global Defense Posture Review. Thailand. and Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs from 2001-2005. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy.amazonaws. Korea.D. and Australia— to come to their defense in extremis. Australia released a defense White Paper that is concerned primarily with the potential decline of U. Only by building a full-spectrum military force can America reassure its many friends and allies and count on their future support. and bilateral security treaties with Japan. and funding allotted to his department.A.S. He graduated from Harvard College and received a M.
Mr. whose reaction to any disturbance of the diplomatic status quo might be expected to be one of resistance to change. braving the predictable resistance of settled constituencies from one end of the globe to the other.S. Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century. On the other hand. and reposition the U. Big Change. journalists. without overly taxing the system. even when the nature and location of the crisis had not been foreseen.S.S. 2006 [Lincoln. “Reposturing the Force: U. forces and the state of America’s diplomatic relations with them. indeed opposition. http://www. Over the long term. are no longer usefully measured by numbers of troops. In at least one country DoD doggedly sought to announce and implement a drawdown of military assets against that ally’s wishes and with an evident relish that required diplomatic damage control and led the president to withhold to himself the withdrawal decision.S.usnwc. There remains a need for allies. and land routes from one region to the next. directly to the point of engagement.A. The foreign press has focused on troops scheduled to be pulled back to U. his determination to rethink.S. and capabilities to fulfill those commitments. the decision to embark on a global realignment was the president’s to make. and their support structure should be physically positioned according to the logic of global geography is very appealing. might aggravate rather than defuse foreign anxieties were also not entirely misplaced.edu/Publications/Naval-War-CollegePress/Newport-Papers/Documents/26-pdf. Conceptually. is noteworthy. and it embodied major foreign policy equities. their facilities.S. Bloomfield previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (1992-93). policy bureaucracy as a whole. and Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs from 2001-2005. globally managed force posture would optimize the flow of combat power along sea. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. to have a clear and compelling vision of how the new global defense posture—embracing U. there were indeed some in the State Department who wanted nothing more than for the initiative to go away and who feared damage to alliances if it went forward. such concerns were not limited to experienced regional specialists in the State Department. The concern was not imaginary. and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs (1988-89) among other policy positions in the Defense Department dating to 1981. Former US Special Envoy for Man-Portable Air Defense Systems Threat Reduction. He graduated from Harvard College and received a M. an efficiently designed. The plan requires significant diplomatic resources to reassure allies. concerns in the State Department that some Department of Defense (DoD) officials. forces outside Still. That Mr. and officials need to be not simply told but persuaded that America’s commitments to them. That he did it during wartime is extraordinary. . Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs (1991-92). One could well imagine the Pentagon’s potential misgivings about placing this hugely ambitious venture at the mercy of other departments. their equipment. if not in monetary terms certainly in the ability of a finite force structure to deliver the maximum military benefit through the greater efficiencies and capabilities of the new global posture. would inevitably make their voices heard before the Department of Defense’s new scheme based on geographic convenience and logistical efficiency could supplant longstanding basing patterns in foreign localities. global defense posture could profit the nation’s security. depending on how the matter is handled. Within the U. by their manner. and the allied governments themselves. European and Asian foreign-policy experts. military’s posture at home and abroad according to a rational design reflecting contemporary security conditions should stand as a positive mark in his legacy.” Chapter 3: Politics and Diplomacy of the Global Defense Posture Review. Such a concept would best allow future presidents to position viable military options to employ anywhere in response to a sudden danger on the shortest of notice. never mind foreign policy bureaucrats.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.aspx] a major change in defense doctrine and practice requires a significant public diplomacy effort if it is to be accepted abroad. particularly in Asia. and therefore runs the risk. of perturbing the very stability that America’s global military presence is meant to ensure. there were varying perceptions about whether the advertised merits of particular changes under the Global Defense Posture Review would indeed redound to the long-term security benefit of the United States.D. bases or consolidated in other locales. redesign. military force units. Of all of Donald Rumsfeld’s actions during his headline-filled second tenure as secretary of defense. Big Decision: Getting to “Yes” What with the profound implications of a posture change for allied countries hosting U. Rumsfeld took on this monumental management task. air. even to discussing prospective force reductions with allied countries.L.com 31/148 Thursday File anxieties in many quarters. Bloomfield.S. a well-executed streamlining of the U. The Department of State.S. certainly none of his predecessors seriously attempted it. An Ambitious Concept The idea that U.
Rolling Out the Initiative On 25 November 2003. Bloomfield previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (1992-93). were of course part of the GDPR picture. Secretary Powell pledged his and the State Department’s support and assistance to the Global Defense Posture Review under one condition. there was also a temptation. The secretary continued. Other agencies offered their comments. had told the administration not to start that process until it had first scrubbed the overseas basing system for other ways to streamline the global footprint.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. as the host governments in each case were deeply involved in discussions about potential adjustments. deadpan. the United States will intensify our consultations with the Congress and our friends. Bloomfield. “Reposturing the Force: U. Mr. Secretary Powell said he thought the briefing had misstated the facts about European bases being obsolete because of their relevance to World War II. whenever the issue was raised within senior interagency circles. following which these two officials. difficult project was not driven by exigencies of current military operations.S. while the author made a side trip to Manila for the same purpose. Secretary Rumsfeld rolled out his map. What finally forced the issue was the link between prospective overseas withdrawals of military assets and units and the planned round of the Base Closure and Realignment (BRAC) Commission. and deserving of priority support subject to the president’s approval. such as Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage. and Tokyo . allies. with the DoD worldwide realignment plan finally ready for top-level interagency consideration. who visited Canberra. articulated his concept. Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century.” Chapter 3: Politics and Diplomacy of the Global Defense Posture Review. and Singapore.com 32/148 Thursday File as well as within their borders—will ensure their security as before. Secretaries Powell and Rumsfeld launched diplomatic consultations on the GDPR at the December 2003 NATO ministerial meetings. It must not be a fait accompli imposed on allies from Washington. With that pithy intervention by Secretary Powell. 2006 [Lincoln. and silence pervaded the room. time was running short if GDPR decisions were to be in hand for the BRAC analytical work that was to commence in early 2004. http://www. that in some locations— including German facilities under his command in the 1980s—the bases dated all the way back to the Franco-Prussian War. Beijing. and asked his aides to brief the rationale for this transformational initiative. make possible this assurance. and stealth. split up and barnstormed a total of twelve European capitals. one that won quick endorsement from DoD and the interagency realm—that this initiative had to be conducted in full consultation with affected governments around the world. who approved it to proceed to public rollout and consultation with other governments. which said in part: “Beginning today. Major allies Japan and Korea. By mid2003. Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs (1991-92). to ask “Why now?” and put it off for another day.D. and when they had finished.” The words were carefully chosen. the White House released President George Bush’s statement announcing the new initiative. comprehensive posture reviews on a bilateral basis. there was no requirement for a special briefing to either.aspx] Since this large. among other advances. mobility. the administration found itself in consensus that the GDPR was timely.A. In March 2004 Under Secretary Feith led a delegation (including the author) that briefed this initiative in Beijing. this review was “ongoing. High-level administration visitors to Asian capitals. and Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs from 2001-2005. and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs (1988-89) among other policy positions in the Defense Department dating to 1981. From the president’s perspective. however. Former US Special Envoy for Man-Portable Air Defense Systems Threat Reduction. backed by respective interagency delegations. This was followed within days by a joint appearance at the North Atlantic Council by Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Marc Grossman and Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Douglas Feith. already undergoing very careful. Canberra. Secretary of State Colin Powell understood DoD’s concern that the initiative could be subjected to death by a thousand cuts. which developed a final list of recommended domestic base closures during 2005. emphasizing the need to move past a World War II–era basing structure. When the principals finally engaged at the White House. understandably fearful of losing home-district bases under BRAC. none of the recommended changes in overseas American presence was yet decided. His point was effectively made—of course we needed to update and rationalize our force posture. worthy. By the fall of 2003. Specific force posture changes would require presidential approval at a later stage. and partners overseas on our ongoing review of our overseas force posture. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy.edu/Publications/Naval-War-CollegePress/Newport-Papers/Documents/26-pdf. Empirical proof. Precision strike. He graduated from Harvard College and received a M.L. A few hearts stopped.usnwc. Many in Congress. all eyes turned to the secretary of state.” and consultations were to be integral to his decision process. From there the issue went to the president.
readily responded to public and official queries about GDPR. This is not to say. “Reposturing the Force: U. and Latin America. Also – negotiating SOFAs requires time and resources.umaryland. and How Might One Be Utilized In Iraq?”.L.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.antiwar. You know. Bloomfield. there’s more people in the Army band than there are foreign service officers.com 33/148 Thursday File during the winter of 2003–2004. none of this was included in the initial briefings. indeed since Vietnam. 6/16. military network so as to reflect the considerable changes over several decades in the way American soldiers. and technologies now operated. More ev – US will have to reassure allies.” http://www. the approach was to explain the merits of rationalizing the global U. Deputy Secretary Armitage was able to calm negative foreign press speculation by. Mason. the two are one. it will serve the United States and its traditional allies best if the sides come to a mutual understanding on how to meet the needs of all. or timetables. and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs (1988-89) among other policy positions in the Defense Department dating to 1981. carried to those regions the message that others had already given to Europe and Asia. Rolling Stone. We’re packing up here and so I’ve got to take off. Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs (1991-92). South Asia.A. you look at every foreign service officer – you know. as American military power is staged from their territories in future crises.S. European governments will do well to revisit their ability to act immediately on time-sensitive intelligence. He graduated from Harvard College and received a M. closure of facilities. 2009 [Chuck. for example.law. freelance writer. As this was truly a global initiative.S. 6-26-2010 [Michael. platforms. Instead. And I think that translates Hastings: I think into the fact that a lot of the time just the leaders get the blame for all the wars. the UN. Former US Special Envoy for Man-Portable Air Defense Systems Threat Reduction. $600 billion to $50 billion. And.pdf] . Hastings.com/blog/2010/06/26/michael-hastings-interview-transcript/] there’s a larger kind of structural issue here about – you just compare the DOD budget to the State Department budget. in fact. that all these consultations in Europe and Asia divulged specifics on planned movements and locations of units. Bloomfield previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (1992-93). and Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs from 2001-2005. State Department is stretched thin and military-diplomatic issues are inextricably linked.aspx] As the GDPR moves toward the implementation phase. http://www. Africa. You know. Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century. even when there is no formal mandate from NATO. so you look like at just the sort of decay of the State Department and basically our foreign policy has become our defense policy.” Chapter 3: Politics and Diplomacy of the Global Defense Posture Review. but I appreciate your time and we’ll talk again soon. You know. You know.usnwc. the EU or their parliaments. respectively. but I think we also have to start looking at the military leaders in a much more critical way than they’re accustomed to be looked at.edu/marshall/crsreports/crsdocuments/RL34531_06162008.D. Persuading allies that military operations had evolved over time was not difficult. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. and the State Department’s regional assistant secretaries for Near East. Every geographic combatant commander’s area of responsibility was slated to experience change. regardless of the urgency. 2006 [Lincoln. you could fit every foreign service officer on an aircraft carrier. The United States will do well to work out with allied governments modalities to satisfy host countries’ legitimate needs for information and consent. the administration provided briefing points for ambassadors to scores of countries.edu/Publications/Naval-War-CollegePress/Newport-Papers/Documents/26-pdf. assuring the Australian public that the United States did not seek to base combat units in Australia. “Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA): What Is It. however. and they should take their fair share of blame. Mr. “Michael Hastings Interview Transcript. The recent examples of relatively lean forces dislodging the Taliban regime from Kabul and then the Saddam Hussein regime from Baghdad spoke volumes about conceptual leaps forward in the military arts by the United States since World War II. http://www.
Constitution. February 2009. like the nuclear weapons states.. the commanding officer shall request that the receiving state waive its jurisdiction. .. . a SOFA is specific to an individual country and is in the form of an executive agreement. University of California. . identify the need for a SOFA with a particular country and negotiate the terms of the agreement.. PSI's purpose is to enforce international nonproliferation obligations by making it more difficult to acquire sensitive technology. or alters the right of the United States to safeguard its own security by excluding or removing persons whose presence in the United States is deemed prejudicial to its safety or security. University of California...D.S. 1970. .. The U. every party to a treaty exercises a veto over amendments. Because states are likely to have ex ante expectations about who the first movers will be..e.. The NATO SOFA7 is the only SOFA that was concluded as part of a treaty. Institute for Global Conflict and Cooperation and the National Science Foundation.8 The Senate approved ratification of the NATO SOFA on March 19... as well as opportunistic violations of the soft regime that could for new conditions.S. 32 Fordham Int'l L.9 The Senate reservations to the NATO SOFA include four conditions: (1) the criminal jurisdiction provisions contained in Article VII of the agreement do not constitute a precedent for future agreements. This increase in the supply of counterproliferation is a public good that in some measure offsets the cost to other states of accepting their less-preferred counterproliferation rules. working together.. However. and. (2) when a servicemember is to be tried by authorities in a receiving state. .. perceptions about the relationship between the two rules may vary. Ph. have been deterred by a hard regime. abridges. (3) if the commanding officer believes there is danger that the servicemember will not be protected because of the absence or denial of constitutional rights the accused would receive in the United States..6 The Department of State and the Department of Defense. . and equipment. however. sought to make India an exception to the NSG rules that transfers can only be made to non-nuclear weapons states that have accepted safeguards on all of their nuclear operations (India.. From an evolutionary standpoint. by permitting adjustment of the legal rules and expectations. material. in which rules change over time to account flexibility can enhance global welfare over time..D. treaties) often exacerbate the difficulties with renegotiation because unless a treaty provides otherwise. Meyer Fellow Institue for Global Conflict 2009 (Timothy. J. First.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 34/148 Cross-X. “SOFT LAW AS DELEGATION”. establishing a soft law regime recognizes that the benefits to permitting those states to update legal rules over time outweighs the costs in terms of an opportunistic updating of such rules.com Thursday File With the exception of the multilateral SOFA among the United States and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries. Berkeley School of Law. the cost to the United States of trade sanctions from a minor trading partner may be small compared with the benefits of such a violation because of the relative importance of the trading relationship to each state. (4) a representative of the United States be appointed to attend the trial of any servicemember being tried by the receiving state and act to protect the constitutional rights of the servicemember. holding expected levels of compliance constant.. Fordham University School of Law Fordham International Law Journal. The resolution included a statement that nothing in the Agreement diminishes.10 Renegotiating treaties like SOFAs to withdraw troops take large amounts of diplomatic capital because many parties have veto power. 888. . and that no person whose presence in the United States is deemed prejudicial to its safety or security shall be permitted to enter or remain in the United States. Jurisprudence and Social Policy. which has the effect of reducing the reputational sanction for violating the soft law rule (because not all states will see a violation of the one as a violation of the other). subject to reservations.S.. the commanding officer of the U. Because the rule prohibiting the transfer of X is not directly binding. Lexis) Binding international agreements (i. flexibility-enhancing devices are available to states to promote agreement in situations in which the parties might otherwise be unable to reach an accord... . would not put safeguards on its military nuclear operations). Flexibility as a Device to Promote Agreement Other scholars have suggested that a variety of . Public Policy and Nuclear Threats Fellow. armed forces in that state shall review the laws of the receiving state with reference to the procedural safeguards of the U.J.. Berkeley. as an export control regime. ..
and institutional reforms necessary to protect and advance U. strengthening our technology and industrial bases to facilitate innovation. sharing insights regarding analysis.S. and Quadrennial Intelligence Community Review respectively. and plans in overlapping issue areas. the QDR highlights the importance of revitalizing defense relationships with allies and partners in key regions. Over the course of the review. and Secretary of State. Defense leaders and staff worked closely with the Departments of State and Homeland Security. QDR staff consulted with and briefed congressional staff as well as representatives of allied and other governments.S. both within DoD and beyond. interests while taking care of our people is the imperative to reform how it does business. The Quadrennial Defense Review in 2010 (QDR Report prepared for Congress. February 1.S. . key missions. as well as the Intelligence Community. capabilities. 2010) Part of the Department’s obligation to defend and advance U. Given the complex security environment and the range of missions. As the QDR generated insights and interim findings. and defense agreements across regions. defense posture that emphasizes cooperation with allies and partners and retailoring military forces. capabilities. and crafting a strategic approach to climate and energy challenges. DoD officials also engaged with their counterparts elsewhere in the U. government to benefited from further the kind of integrated security approaches long advocated by the President.com Thursday File Link – Military Change Military reforms and changes to our SQ policy require tons of diplomatic capital – consultation and reviews will happen at all levels of government. as they undertook their Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review. improving our defense acquisition and logistics processes to better support our personnel in harm’s way. interests. these were shared with and reviewed by a wide range of experts. This QDR extensive engagement with key stakeholders. An important element of revitalizing key relationships is the need to craft an approach to the U.S. Quadrennial Homeland Security Review.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 35/148 Cross-X. The Department is working to help build a whole-of-government approach to the provision of security assistance. For example. Secretary of Defense. facilities.
diplomat. the reversal of a process introduced with sweeping visions by two administrations may lead to chaos. to decrease the present deployment with a new strategy. In Vietnam. and recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize. according to this view. or to increase the existing deployment with a strategy focused on the security of the population. That is likely to be the fate of any central government in Kabul. 10-12. In the past. he has shown considerable courage in implementing his promise to increase our forces in Afghanistan and to pursue the war more energetically. As president. A negotiation with the group might isolate Al Qaeda and lead to its defeat. or a more effective way to sustain it. as a candidate. with our training. The second option--offered as an alternative--would shrink the current mission by focusing on counter-terrorism rather than counterinsurgency. is a local. multiethnic society. No outside force has. abandoning the strategy proposed by General McChrystal and endorsed by Gen. A decision not to increase current force levels involves. Even Alexander the Great only passed through. A key strategic issue. Congress terminated an American role even after all our troops had. regardless of its ideological coloration and perhaps even its efficiency. in guerrilla war. Every guerrilla war raises the challenge of how to define military objectives. Can a civil society be built on a national basis in a country which is neither a nation nor a state? In a partly feudal. at a minimum. even that may not permit troop withdrawals. it was the Taliban which provided bases for Al Qaeda in the first place. commit it to the improvement of the lives of its people. of course.S. In Vietnam. Is that paradox soluble? The prevailing strategy in Afghanistan is based on the classic anti-insurrection doctrine: to build a central government. in fact. American political scientist. have all been recently appointed by the Obama administration. A sudden reversal of American policy would fundamentally affect domestic stability in Pakistan by freeing the Qaeda forces along the Afghan border for even deeper incursions into Pakistan. by a coalition of local feudal or semifeudal rulers. threatening domestic chaos. and then protect the population until that government's own forces are able. threat. if at all. To adopt such a course is a disguised way of retreating from Afghanistan altogether. for it is highly improbable that the civic actions on which our policies are based could be carried out in areas controlled by the Taliban. The domestic debate generates the pressure for diplomatic compromise. This is not to exclude the possibility of defections from the Taliban as occurred from Al Qaeda in Iraq's Anbar province. each with outstanding qualifications.com Thursday File Link – Afghanistan Withdrawal requires huge diplomatic efforts to reassure stakeholders in the region. This is of particular relevance to Afghanistan. Hence the defeat of Al Qaeda and radical Islamic jihad should be the dominant priority. ever pacified the entire country. it can be relegated to being a secondary target. But to win in Afghanistan we’ll need help from its powerful neighbors” Lexis] The demand for an exit strategy is. It would also imply the partition of Afghanistan along functional lines. “More troops is a start. It would draw us into a numbers game without definable criteria. though as we have seen in Korea. This theory seems to me to be too clever by half. we produced another motive for civil war. the guerrillas often ceded control of the territory during the day and returned at night to prevent political stabilization. Yet the fanaticism that motivates guerrillas--not to speak of suicide bombers--does not allow for compromise unless they face defeat or exhaustion. where American troops have remained since 1953. fundamental . ultimately deeper American involvement. a metaphor for withdrawal. after a while. It remains to be seen to what extent the achievements of the surge in Iraq will be sustained there politically. will be which part of Afghan territory can be effectively controlled in terms of these criteria. not as a way to avoid it. But those occurred after the surge. After all.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 36/148 Cross-X. it would be widely interpreted as the first step toward withdrawal. cooperation with the Taliban in the governance of Afghanistan. Kissinger. and withdrawal that is not accompanied by a willingness to sustain the outcome amounts to abandonment. In short. A seemingly unavoidable paradox emerges. The prospects of world order will be greatly affected by whether our strategy comes to be perceived as a retreat from the region. David Petraeus. Rejecting their recommendations would be a triumph of domestic politics over strategic judgment. therefore. served as National Security Advisor and later concurrently as Secretary of State in the administrations of Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford. The most unambiguous form of exit strategy is victory. not a global. But the strategy of the guerrilla--described by Mao--is to draw the adversary into a morass of popular resistance in which. The request for more forces by General McChrystal states explicitly that his existing forces are inadequate for this mission. in return for not challenging the Taliban in the governance of Afghanistan. to take over. implies a surge testing the patience of the American public. Afghanistan has been governed. to be given a broader context with particular emphasis on the political environment. any attempt to endow the central government with overriding authority has been resisted by some established local rulers. It would raise the most serious questions about American steadiness in India. Newsweek. 2009 [Henry. Military strategy is traditionally defined by control of the maximum amount of territory. It would be ironic if. since the Mongol invasion. the probable target should a collapse in Afghanistan give jihad an even greater impetus. control of 75 percent of the territory 100 percent of the time is more important than controlling 100 percent of the territory 75 percent of the time. The military strategy proposed by Generals McChrystal and Petraeus needs. by following the received counterinsurgency playbook too literally. Al Qaeda and the Taliban are unlikely to be able to be separated so neatly geographically. Even so-called realists--like me-would gag at a tacit U. and loss of confidence in American reliability. Those in the chain of command in Afghanistan. however. Therefore. That. been withdrawn for two years. The argument would be that the overriding American strategic objective in Afghanistan is to prevent the country from turning once again into a base for international terrorism. in turn. President Obama. extrication becomes his principal objective. implying three options: to continue the present deployment and abandon the McChrystal strategy. proclaimed Afghanistan a necessary war. Since the Taliban.
more than we are by the emergence of a base for international terrorism: Pakistan by Al Qaeda. a serious diplomatic effort is needed to address the major anomaly of the Afghan war. Iran. What does the public have to say about the situation in Afghanistan? Is public opinion turning against the "good" war? Can we expect help from our European allies? And what do Afghans have to say about conditions on the ground? U. made the right decision to use military force there. India. http://www. The special aspect of Afghanistan is that it has powerful neighbors or near neighbors--Pakistan. our credibility as a warrior against terror. “War In Afghanistan”. China by fundamentalist Shiite jihadists in Xinjiang. 2003 [Nikola. so far. ministers demanded a review of international troops within its borders. there was no alternative to America's leading the effort.000 U.S. once the decision was taken." Wisner said.S.civilians/. http://www.these points of credibility are all at issue. In all previous American ground-combat efforts. Pulling troops out of Afghanistan will delay other priorities – Afghanistan wants us to stay and will prolong negotiations Bowman 9 (Karlyn. but it was more than some of Obama's anti-war supporters would have liked. On August 25. “U. I'll suggest as well is our ability to look forward to the kind of exit from Iraq that we as Americans would want to achieve at a certain point.com/2009/02/21/war-afghanistan-troops-opinions-columnists_obama. The president also ordered a review of policies in Afghanistan to be completed before April's NATO summit. A major effort is needed to encourage such an evolution. Withdrawal requires SOFA negotiations. 64% of respondents said the U.cnn.S. 9-8] Afghan government concluded its investigation.htm] But the independent panel's report calls for more. it's going to be a lot harder to convince others to work with us to get it right in Iraq. support for the mission remains robust. those responses were 69% . Each is threatened in one way or another and. Russia.S.” http://www. in many respects. as well as house searches not coordinated with Afghan authorities and the illegal detention of civilians. GlobalSecurity. our credibility as a mobilizer of international coalitions when crises are reached and if we don't succeed and get it right in Afghanistan -. More emphasis needs to be given to regional efforts and regional militia. Policy failure will devastate US negotiating credibility. China. the control from Kabul may be tenuous and its structure less than ideal. foreign policy and will undermine the global position of Washington as a peacekeeper.globalsecurity. Concurrently.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/09/08/afghan. Wisner drew a parallel between the current situation in Afghanistan and U. no other country had the combination of resources or national interest required. peace efforts in Iraq. CNN. Krastev. President Barack requested by General David McKiernan.S. our credibility as a force for stability." The deployment fell short of the 30. If we can't get it right in Afghanistan.S. who heads the U.000 troops Last week.org. 23 February.forbes. and NATO troops. India by general jihadism and specific terror groups. 2008 [Barbara Starr. even Iran by the fundamentalist Sunni Taliban. Forbes. Russia by unrest in the Muslim south. “Sources: Cell phone images alter course of Afghan probe“.S. Each has substantial capacities for defending its interests. perhaps unrelatable to the rhythm of our electoral processes.org/military/library/news/2003/06/mil-030620-rfel-161133. to stand more or less aloof. It says any further security deterioration in Afghanistan will have far-reaching implications for U. For the foreseeable future. while 25% said the country had made the wrong decision. troops to Afghanistan to "stabilize a deteriorating situation.html) Obama authorized sending another 17. This would also enhance our political flexibility.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 37/148 Cross-X.S.which include U. The council also asked that the ministry es demand After the the international forces halt airstrikes on civilian targets. Answering a Pew Research Center question from January. and NATO command there. "Our credibility as a peacekeeper. Each has chosen. Afghanistan's Council of Ministers called on the Defense and Foreign Affairs ministries to start negotiating a "status of forces" agreement with international forces -. And with them. In January 2006. where he is expected to ask allies for more help.com Thursday File social reform is a long process.: Panel Urges Increased Support For Afghan Government.
36% said the U. views about how the war is going have deteriorated. found a sharp deterioration in views of Afghanistan's president. with the BBC and ARD German TV. 30% of Europeans agreed that "under some conditions. at 13%. A strong plurality. In a December 2008 CNN/Opinion Research Corp. In CBS News/New York Times and ABC News/Washington Post polls. about helping train the Afghan police forces or combat troops. and the U. said coalition forces should withdraw only after security has been restored. In a March 2003 CBS News/New York Times poll. just 30% of Europeans expressed support." Comment On This Story In 2008. Hamid Karzai (83% deemed him excellent or good in 2005.S. by August 2008. war is necessary to obtain justice. When asked about conducting combat operations against the Taliban. was winning in Afghanistan. however. At the same time. .com Thursday File and 20%. 52% do now). only 28% gave that response. 60% said it was not. In Pew's January 2009 poll. In the same poll. Obama's popularity on the continent is unlikely to trump its residents' pacifism. pollsters in mid January show that around one-third of Americans believe the U. nearly half of Democrats surveyed (48%) wanted to reduce U.S. 18% of Afghans fourth survey of opinion of Afghans. Questions about troop levels asked by three major U. slightly fewer--28% and 29%. wanted to increase U. military forces in their country. respectively. respectively--said the number should be decreased. In Europe. Transatlantic Trends found that more than 70% of respondents in the five European countries with the most troops in Afghanistan supported providing security for economic reconstruction projects and for helping to stem narcotics production.S.) Sixty-three percent support the presence of U.S. should increase the number of troops in Afghanistan. government (68% called it excellent or good in 2005. though.S. They were less enthusiastic. So when it comes to getting additional combat support from Europe. and NATO/ISAF troops in their country.S. 76% said it was going very or somewhat well for the U. In its ABC News. In another question..Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 38/148 Cross-X. (Drug traffickers were a distant second. In Pew's poll. in answer to another question.S. Fifty-eight percent of Afghans said the greatest danger their country faces is the resurgence of the Taliban. Americans were more positive about the military effort in Iraq than they were about that in Afghanistan. survey question.S. 32% do now). the 2007 Transatlantic Trends/German Marshall Fund survey found 64% of Europeans supported international reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan. while 44% wanted to cut the numbers. military presence. a figure down from 78% in 2006.
S.edu/Publications/Naval-War-CollegePress/Newport-Papers/Documents/26-pdf. that America is committed—via the North Atlantic Treaty. the Rio Treaty.” Chapter 3: Politics and Diplomacy of the Global Defense Posture Review.usnwc. and Australia— to come to their defense in extremis. assets. Former US Special Envoy for Man-Portable Air Defense Systems Threat Reduction. is noteworthy.S. and land routes from one region to the next. A global posture realignment that involves moving large numbers of those sentries and their weapons inevitably begs the most urgent of security questions. http://www. Bloomfield. Such a concept would best allow future presidents to position viable military options to employ anywhere in response to a sudden danger on the shortest of notice. redesign.S.D. without overly taxing the system. To think otherwise would be to overlook the belief. forces and the state of America’s diplomatic relations with them. These are national commitments. their equipment. One could well imagine the Pentagon’s potential misgivings about placing this hugely ambitious venture at the mercy of other departments.A. The Global Defense Posture Review (GDPR) is such an undertaking. and the promulgation of defense and security strategies to prepare for and deter threats to the national interest. and funding allotted to his department. of perturbing the very stability that America’s global military presence is meant to ensure. military’s posture at home and abroad according to a rational design reflecting contemporary security conditions should stand as a positive mark in his legacy. directly to the point of engagement. even when the nature and location of the crisis had not been foreseen. the fielding of powerful and complex weapons systems. Korea. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century. Rumsfeld took on this monumental management task. Rarely to be found among these major tasks will be any large-scale updating. Thailand. and an annual budget now surpassing $400 billion. Big Decision: Getting to “Yes” What with the profound implications of a posture change for allied countries hosting U. and the sight of U.aspx] An Ambitious Concept When historians look back on the Defense Department’s biggest undertakings during its first six decades of existence. At the same time. this initiative is inescapably. Over the long term. For all the calculations of greater efficiency and utility that commend the idea of reconfiguring America’s global military footprint. 2006 [Lincoln.S. global defense posture could profit the nation’s security. resident in allied populations in more than fifty countries by latest count. armed forces standing the watch in almost every latitude and time zone has calmed regional rivalries and dissuaded armed escalations for sixty years. their facilities. his determination to rethink. streamlining. the Philippines. a well-executed streamlining of the U. certainly none of his predecessors seriously attempted it. military force units. this massive exercise in managerial housekeeping by the secretary of defense cannot be viewed exclusively as one cabinet executive’s effort to make more productive use of the people.com Thursday File Links – Asia Reducing military presence prompts State Department intervention – focuses diplomatic efforts on minimizing effects of the aff. or reconfiguration of an organizational empire that includes well over two million soldiers and civilians. and their support structure should be physically positioned according to the logic of global geography is very appealing. globally managed force posture would optimize the flow of combat power along sea. That Mr. Mr. and therefore runs the risk. the decision to embark on a global realignment was the president’s to make. and it embodied major foreign policy equities. and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs (1988-89) among other policy positions in the Defense Department dating to 1981. depending on how the matter is handled. never mind foreign policy . they will of course cite the prosecution of wars both hot and cold. He graduated from Harvard College and received a M.S. if not in monetary terms certainly in the ability of a finite force structure to deliver the maximum military benefit through the greater efficiencies and capabilities of the new global posture. excites foreign anxieties in many quarters. and bilateral security treaties with Japan. and Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs from 2001-2005. braving the predictable resistance of settled constituencies from one end of the globe to the other. Big Change. An Ambitious Concept The idea that U. Of all of Donald Rumsfeld’s actions during his headline-filled second tenure as secretary of defense. approximately five thousand facilities spread all over the country and the world. The Department of State. air. political in terms of its effect on the rest of the world. an efficiently designed. and the allied governments themselves. indeed overwhelmingly. That he did it during wartime is extraordinary. Bloomfield previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (1992-93). Conceptually. would inevitably make their voices heard before the Department of Defense’s new scheme based on geographic convenience and logistical efficiency could supplant longstanding basing patterns in foreign localities.L. solemnly made. Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs (1991-92). “Reposturing the Force: U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 39/148 Cross-X.S. and reposition the U.
com 40/148 Thursday File bureaucrats. In at least one country DoD doggedly sought to announce and implement a drawdown of military assets against that ally’s wishes and with an evident relish that required diplomatic damage control and led the president to withhold to himself the withdrawal decision. On the other hand. has their concern looked more plausible. The Obama administration needs to consider the full range of policy decisions and diplomacy in this light. by their manner. It wants a strong US. At no time since the administration of former US president Jimmy Carter. might aggravate rather than defuse foreign anxieties were also not entirely misplaced. The future of US alliances and.taipeitimes. because it precludes some of the most aggressive scenarios in their own development. concerns in the State Department that some Department of Defense (DoD) officials. director of the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation.” http://www. there were varying perceptions about whether the advertised merits of particular changes under the Global Defense Posture Review would indeed redound to the long-term security benefit of the United States. by extension.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. Specifically true for Asian withdrawals. All the trips to the region and speeches in the world. They need reassurance. Taipei Times. such concerns were not limited to experienced regional specialists in the State Department. however helpful to the cause. indeed opposition. “Managing alliances in a new world. policy bureaucracy as a whole. US long-term security. whose reaction to any disturbance of the diplomatic status quo might be expected to be one of resistance to change. It is even good for the Chinese themselves.com/News/editorials/archives/2010/05/16/2003473110] US allies in Asia and friends who depend on them have long wrung their hands at the prospect of US withdrawal. The concern was not imaginary. however. 5-16-2010 [Walter. Within the U. Lohman. will not fill the gap alone. there were indeed some in the State Department who wanted nothing more than for the initiative to go away and who feared damage to alliances if it went forward. . even to discussing prospective force reductions with allied countries.S. Countries in the region are in the early stages of planning against that eventuality. depends on it. The region wants a “resident” US.
Last week. a minister in Hatoyama's cabinet. The of American military bases in Japan. But the issue is a difficult one for the prime minister to juggle. At a rally against the base. led by prime minister Yukio Hatoyama. as thousands marched through central Tokyo on Saturday. with members of his own government divided on how to proceed. with members of his coalition government calling for all US troops to leave Japan. with its review of the Futenma relocation plan. Decision postponed However.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 41/148 Cross-X.S. Campbell said the alliance with Japan was a "cornerstone" of the US engagement in Asia. But the newly elected Japanese government is re-examining the deal.html) US assistant secretary of state for East Asia is due to arrive in Tokyo on Monday for talks on the future visit comes after thousands of people from across Japan joined protests at the weekend against plans to relocate a US base on the southern island of Okinawa. called for the removal of the US base [Reuters] Last month Campbell called on Japan to stick to the 2006 deal and relocate the US Futenma air base in Okinawa. pacifists. Campbell also reiterated Washington's desire to see that the US Marine Corps Air Station at Futenma be transferred to another area on the island by 2014. a cabinet minister. Kurt Campbell's 'Cornerstone' alliance Mizuho Fukushima. caught between increasing public opposition to US troops and its crucial military alliance with Washington. Mizuho Fukushima. http://english. Local residents have long complained about noise. environmentalists and students called for an end to the US troop presence. Hatoyama has repeatedly postponed his decision on the pact. He said the US is assisting the Japanese government. opposition to the US-Japan pact is growing louder. They gathered for a rally at a park. the two countries signed a pact that called for the realignment of American troops in the country and for a marine base on the island to be moved to a less populated area. In written testimony before a Senate Foreign Relations Committee subcommittee on January 21. “US envoy to discuss Japan bases”. under a banner that read "Change! Japan-U. In 2006. Relations".aljazeera. just before national elections. . Some 47.000 US troops are stationed in Japan. Al Jazeera 10 (1 February 2010. with more than half on the island. Labor unionists.com Thursday File Link – Japan Renegotiating the SOFA will be costly – internal political struggles in Japan will prevent quick passage of the plan. he pledged to resolve the issue by May. Meanwhile. pollution and crime around the bases.net/news/asia-pacific/2010/02/20102133033203868. told a crowd protesters that she wants to see the Okinawa base closed and US troops moved out of Japan entirely.
They manufactured a false sense of peace and security while intentionally ignoring or making little of the Still. “Transfer of troop control: A Bush legacy. Simply because the North Korean military is most delighted to see the OPCON transfer and the CFC dissolution. His decision is in full harmony with Korean culture and emotion. couldn't we postpone the decision until at least denuclearization of North Korea is completed? The OPCON transfer and the CFC dissolution is not a simple military issue but a complicated matter where hard power and soft power are combined.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview. should not send any hint of a wrong signal to Kim Jong-il. .at this moment.do? docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T9622716431&format=GNBFI&sort=RELEVANCE&startDocNo=1&resu ltsUrlKey=29_T9622562285&cisb=22_T9622716436&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=158208& docNo=1] The South Korean public was perplexed at the gushing of official reports and remarks from the United States. Successfully exercising soft power in the alliance means that the United States should win over South Koreans by paying careful attention to what they believe. 6/24/10 through LexisNexis.” Korea Herald. there was an auspicious example in this regard. Concerning the unpreparedness of the ROK military against a North they ask.lexisnexis. they question what the alliance is all about.com Thursday File Link – South Korea Plan unpopular: Public wants US troops to stay until North Korea denuclearizes Cheon 09 [Seong-whun. http://www. The vast majority of South Koreans don't question the authenticity of the professional judgment of the U. General Sharp sent USFK officials at Incheon Airport to receive the remains of Kim Suk-im who died when an American jet fighter crashed into her San Diego home last December.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 42/148 Cross-X. States saved their country from North Korean aggression and also is the only foreign country the ROK has ever fought for in the history of Korea. That is priority number one of the alliance at this juncture. Acc. Some even think that Washington is ready to accept the DPRK as a nuclear state as long as it is not committed to proliferation. Their insufficient knowledge of the North Korean nuclear threat largely results from deliberate propaganda of the Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun administrations. 1/23/09. South Koreans question whether it is right to implement the decision the OPCON transfer and the CFC dissolution . Recently. We We need to exercise similar wisdom. the decision is worthy of delay. spreading quiet ripple effects on Korean society. Using soft power is the ability to attract the South Korean people to the American side. Remembering that the United nuclear threat.S. He also sent a delegation to express his condolences to the family of Kim. Korean WMD attack. military. Writer for the Korea Herald.
patrolling with Iraqi troops and the Kurdish peshmerga along the disputed Green Line separating Iraq proper from the Kurdish regional government. officers in Iraq are right now implementing plans to draw down our troops to zero by the end of 2011.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 43/148 Cross-X. Obama added a new twist by ordering that troop strength be cut from the current 95. 2008 [“US. and 150. which the Monitor recently tallied to include: 60.com/article/ALeqM5gXdwNmi_OvQcfCpWQ1s38VB-egqw] .000 trailer-sized containers. The delay in seating a government also endangers the possible negotiation of a fresh accord to govern Iraqi-American relations after 2011. According to the Status of Forces Agreement. It is vital to have a continuing American military presence to train That should be no surprise considering that President and advise Iraqi security forces. The presumption was that the drawdown would occur after Iraq had installed a new government.csmonitor. One option might be to send some personnel and equipment via Turkey. The Iraqi-American security accord negotiated by the George W.google.000 private contractors from nearly 50 bases and installations. The last American-Iraqi security accord took a year to negotiate. Obama promised today that the remaining 50. where the two-lane Habur Gate crossing has been used quietly as a way to move supplies. 5-9. They hope that some forces will be permitted to remain. 120.S. http://afp.remain to ensure that those weapons are never used against our Kurdish allies. which have grown in size and competence but still aren't capable of defending their airspace or performing other vital functions.000 troops – a bigger number than Democrats were expecting – will leave by 2011. Kurdish politicians I met in Irbil warned that if Iraqi-Kurdish land disputes aren't resolved by the end of 2011 (and odds are they won't be).” 2-27. 5-9-2010 [Max. 10-15. It is all the more important that an American buffer -. a US military presence is allowed for up to three more years. there is a serious danger of war breaking out once American troops leave.say 10. Bush administration called for the departure of all our soldiers by the end of 2011. Boot. U. If the US doesn’t address Maliki’s postelection moves. That takes tons of diplomatic resources. it will be extremely difficult to conclude a treaty by the end of next year. “Troop withdrawal: Obama to end Iraq war by August 2010.000 troops -.com/World/Global-News/2009/0227/troop-withdrawal-obama-to-end-iraqwar-by-august-201] Another challenge of the withdrawal is how to move the significant amount of equipment now in Iraq. If the new government isn't seated until the end of this year. troops out of Iraq. but that will only be possible after what is sure to be a protracted and tortuous negotiation with the new Iraqi government.com Thursday File Link – Iraq Troop drawdown in Iraq will take years of intense negotiations. Yet U. http://www. The possibility of miscalculation will grow once the Iraqi armed forces acquire the M-1 tanks and F-16 fighters that we have agreed to sell them.S.000 to 50. the billions of dollars spent and the thousands of lives lost could be for nothing” Los Angeles Times. SOFA goes til 2011 – withdrawing ahead of schedule means we’d have to negotiate a new one. Iraq still negotiating troop presence deal”. troops also play a vital peacekeeping role.000 aircraft and vehicles.S.000 to 15. But Iraqi politicians now expect that no government will emerge before the fall. Senior fellow in national security studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and contributing editor to the opinion section of Los Angeles Times.000 by September. 2009 [Christa Case. and Obama’s plan now indicates an earlier withdrawal of the bulk of the troops by August 2010. AFP. Lexis] Obama's overriding objective is to pull U. CSM. Bryant. In keeping with the deal. But US units are supposed to draw back from Iraqi cities to US bases by this summer. a US-Iraqi deal settled on at the end of 2008. Large troop reductions at a time of such political uncertainty will send a dangerous signal of disengagement and lessen America's ability to preserve the integrity of the elections. “There’s still time to lose in Iraq. Thus the Iraqi and American timelines are dangerously out of sync. American officials expected that postelection jockeying would end by June at the latest.
None of these steps has been acted upon. officials have been much more cautious despite an improving security situation. Saying the United States withdrawal should be "moral and responsible." The accord.S. while Iraq seeks a path of prosperity and sovereignty where individual and minority rights are respected. and United Nations for thorough monitoring. combat forces from Iraq. The Iraqis are still talking among themselves. MSNBC. the president and the prime minister agreed that improving conditions should allow for the agreements now under negotiation to include a general time horizon for meeting aspirational goals — such as the resumption of Iraqi security control in their cities and provinces and the further reduction of U. Iraq seek troop withdrawal 'time horizon'. US Defense Secretary Robert Gates said he was "actually reasonably optimistic we will come to closure on this in a very near future.N. And.com/words/latest-news/us-iraq-seek-troop-withdrawal-time-horizon] Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki have agreed that a security deal under negotiation should set a "time horizon" for meeting "aspirational goals" for reducing U. troops to remain when an U. He declined to say whether the two sides were even close to a deal. The U. "In the area of security cooperation. officials have been working in fits and starts on a formal Status of Forces Agreement to provide a legal basis for U. forces gone by the end of 2011. I .S. such as pressures from Iran. Maliki had recently suggested a timetable be set for U.S..html] Former Iraqi Prime Minister Allawi said the United States and Iraq have similar goals. is to put in place a deal for the future status of US troops in Iraq after the UN Security Council mandate for the multinational force expires on December 31. the White House said "the goals would be based on continued improving conditions on the ground and not an arbitrary date for withdrawal.com/VOA_Standard_English/VOA_Standard_English_33702. withdrawal.S. In the closest the Bush administration has come to acknowledging the WASHINGTON . Both US and Iraqi leaders have stressed that a deal is in the works. VOA. "Nothing is done until everything is done.S.S.S. While Iraqis know the United States will be withdrawing its military forces. And he said oustanding political and constitutional issues are also giving rise to severe tensions." State Department spokesman Sean McCormack told reporters. but that condition could take years to meet. Withdrawal requires negotiation with Iraqi government. but U. Allawi said Iraq's military remains unable to shoulder the security burden. troop cuts.S. he said.S. among [other things] amending the Constitution. but not in turmoil. "The implementation of [the] political reform act as passed by Parliament in 2008 is a must.S. “Iraqi Politicians Urge Cautious US Military Withdrawal." Iraqi parliament member Saleh al-Mutlaq said the only way to ensure free and fair elections in his country is with a commitment by the U. yet these steps are very necessary for the stabilization of Iraq. the White House said Friday. senior US officials said Wednesday.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X." he said.51voa. But. But they have differed over some issues such as granting immunity to US soldiers for acts committed in Iraq. dubbed the Status of Forces Agreement.” 9-18. that could cause problems during and after the elections. and all U. both Allawi and parliament member Saleh al-Mutlaq pointed to political. 2009 [Dan. We are still talking to the Iraqis. Upon returning from a trip to Europe last week.” 7-18.President likelihood of some kind of timetable for future U. Everything isn't done. sectarian and other problems as well as external factors. whether Washington has the right to detain Iraqi prisoners and on the future command of military operations on the ground.S. Iraq has proposed requiring U.S. http://www. http://www." the White House said. Robinson." Iraqi and U. President Barack Obama has ordered all U. combat forces out of Iraq by the end of August of next year. instituting an inclusive political process and implementing political and national reconciliation. 2008 [“U. forces to withdraw fully five years after the Iraqis take the lead on security nationwide.michaelmoore. wants to leave Iraq. Iraqi government opposes immediate withdrawal before stability – diplomatic investments necessary in the absence of presence.S. The act includes.com 44/148 Thursday File WASHINGTON (AFP) — The United States and Iraq are still negotiating the terms of an agreement on the future presence of US troops in Iraq next year. mandate expires at the end of the year. "Without this monitoring. forces in Iraq. but has been held up by the ongoing negotiations. The deal was originally set to be signed in July.
in the media. 2009 [Haro. "Syria's prime minister and foreign minister are coming over soon. Zebari pointed to the opening of several Arab embassies in Baghdad and to the expected stream of diplomatic visits. our continued engagement despite their negativism." he said. More ev – SOFAs. In his testimony Thursday." the foreign minister said. and instead attended an economic summit in Kuwait. forces. we have our vested interests and can make our own decisions. outmaneuver and constrain rival factions. Reuters. the [long-delayed] oil law. the subcommittee Chairman. that's a key issue. "We have proven that no battered country. “Gates: US won't promise to defend Iraq in accord”.reuters. support here in this country for involvement in Afghanistan will diminish because the American people will be saying. Iraq had also taken a stand last month by staying away from a meeting of leaders in Qatar meant to shore up support for Hamas over the Gaza crisis. along with an upsurge in sectarian tensions.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 45/148 Cross-X. Pointing to questions about the legitimacy of the recent election in Afghanistan. Delahunt worries not only about a deterioration in Iraq. warned that sectarianism in Iraq might worsen in the run-up to the elections. Vice President Joe Biden said on Thursday the United States will abide by any decisions by the Iraqi people on the U. but a strong United Nations involvement.S. "It used to be that way. tensions.. The size of the long-term U. Kenneth Katzman." he said. staff writer for Agence French Presse." in contrast to other countries where it would have been a state secret. "The impression has completely changed. as another example of Iraq's ability to stand on its own two feet. that our people are going to be targeted. “Iraq Sheds US Puppet in its Own Backyard. The Democratic representative of the U.S. Plus. in parliament. For Baghdad. withdrawing before stability devastates negotiating credibility. And look what happened." Zebari said Baghdad's often troubled ties with Damascus had "improved a great deal" . which should include not only the deployment of U. http://www. and ethnic and factional infighting continue to simmer. he said.com/index. the White House deputy national security adviser.jordantimes." he said in his office. referring to the scepticism of nearby countries." Gates told a U. The agreement will set the rules and legal protections under which U.S." he said. 2-17.S. over our constitutional reforms. withdrawal schedule. he said.php?news=14364&searchFor=Iran] "We have political problems. a specialist in Middle East Affairs with the Congressional Research Service. Staff Writer. "If the election in January is unsuccessful. not only for Iraq's future but for the region. 2-6. policy in Afghanistan. stressing that Iraq's neighbours were now taking it seriously. It's about Afghanistan and I dare say it's about the entire region. bases in Iraq.S. "these are part of the reconciliation" process in the warthe 1979 Islamic revolution. military presence. Douglas Lute. Katzman said sectarian tensions could reach a peak as Iraqis decide whether to hold a referendum on the U. with economic issues high on the agenda. Delahunt said he will use consultations in New York next week to generate support for international monitoring of the Iraqi elections. it didn't work. presence in Iraq also will be part of the negotiations. Lt. 2008 [Kristin. U. the arch-foe of Washington ever since matter what the differences between the United States and a neighbouring country.S. And we have been getting so many warnings that we are going to be targeted.” http://www.. part of which was established in a Status of Forces Agreement reached during the Bush administration. said a large international observer presence is required before and during the vote. In his testimony to the subcommittee. especially after this agreement with the US and the way we debated it. Congress to the United Nations.S.S. Democratic Representative William Delahunt. And many Iraqis' views and positions are colored by efforts to outflank. 'We tried it once. adorned with a plush Persian carpet. referring to the loss of diplomatic credibility after the US-led invasion of March 2003 that toppled Saddam Hussein. forces operate in Iraq." he said. "All this has sent the right signals. government performance. Zebari. Chakmakijan. The intimidation is already there. Roberts. House of Representatives committee." he said. "Sectarianism. an Iraqi Kurd. Within the Arab world. has a moral responsibility and national security interest in ensuring fraud-free elections in Iraq.' So this isn't just simply about supporting the Iraqi people and democracy in Iraq. also pointed to Baghdad's good ties with Tehran. former Iraqi Prime Minister Allawi voiced concern about what he called "reversals in security" after a fragile period of improvement. nor will we seek. Senate panel. On the final day of a visit to Iraq. but the impact electoral problems in Iraq could have on the American public support for U. Gen.S.S. "We do not want." he said." he later told a U. has said. permanent The United States and Iraq have agreed to start formal negotiations about their future relationship with the goal of finishing an accord by the end of July.com/article/idUSN06442345] "The status-of-forces agreement that is being discussed will not contain a commitment to defend Iraq and neither will any strategic framework agreement.com Thursday File believe that the election will be the same as happened before. Calling the elections critical. the assassinations are already there. The United States. "We are thinking of reopening our [oil] pipeline through Syria to the Mediterranean.
and international policy priority in the region — the planned troop withdrawals. dominated by regional influences. where the Shiite majority is dominant. associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University . It is willing to offer an alternative as Bush's finest hour in Iraq: the Status of Forces Agreement." Zebari said. which finished first in votes in Iraq’s national elections in March.com/2010/06/12/editorial-how-iraqcan-fortify-its-fragile-democracy/] we hope that the United States and the United Nations will help bring Iraq’s political blocs together to achieve a government in the national interest." he said. I have to be honest. is sending its deputy premier and foreign minister.com Thursday File following their opening of embassies in late 2006. Iraq cannot be allowed to revert to an unstable state of sectarian strife. It demonstrated a pragmatism and willingness to put the national interest ahead of partisanship that few of us believed he possessed. through consulates. Lynch Professor Political Science 09 (Marc. through official channels. by Iran's former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani the two sides are placing their diplomatic ties on a new footing. no." the minister said. They haven't stopped but the Syrians have taken a number of measures. he acknowledged Shiite Iran was influential in the new Iraq.foreignpolicy. Rather than simply denounce everything Republican..uniquely echoing a thousand recent op-eds -was President Bush's finest moment. with which Iraq has had troubled ties for decades. Such an outcome would insult the tens of thousands of Iraqi civilians whose lives were stolen in terrorist attacks and the thousands of U. that is wrong. as well as a moral responsibility to the Iraqi people whom it freed from tyranny to do all it can to deliver sustainable peace and stability.000 by this summer. military forces from Iraq on a fixed three year timeline demonstrated a real flexibility on Bush's part. a stable energy supply. “Bush's finest moment on Iraq: SOFA.” YaLibnan. to Baghdad for the first time. he argues.S. 10 [Ayad. Even Kuwait. He served as prime minister from 2004 to 2005. it would also put at risk every U. Renegotiating the SOFA for a rapid withdrawal will demand large amounts of attention – Allawi wants US troops to stay for legitimacy and will delay negotiations. http://www. not the surge”. largely thanks to Bush's acceptance of his own bargaining failure that Barack Obama will inherit a plausible route to successful .Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 46/148 Cross-X. "We told them this is a sovereign Iraqi decision. Zebari contrasted the approach to the individual contacts dating back to the days of opposition to Saddam's regime when many of today's leaders of Iraq were exiled in Iran. demarcation of borders and the billions of dollars in war reparation claims will be among the thorny issues on the agenda." said Zebari. "We are trying to formalise relations with them through embassies. and secondly they felt that this will backfire on them. Allawi. http://lynch.yalibnan. "They took that as a sign. long way with them. ForeignPolicy. "To say that they dictate to us. to have a protocol of dealing with each other.. Joint oil fields. nuclear containment. "We have come a long. Washington still has unrivaled leverage in Iraq.. But our attitude [now] is to deal with each other as two sovereign countries.com/posts/2009/01/18/sofa_not_the_surge) Peter Beinart today bravely repeats the emerging would-be conventional wisdom. troops. to help shield our fragile democracy from foreign interference and forces that wish to undermine democracy. soldiers who sacrificed their lives. “Editorial: How Iraq can fortify its fragile democracy. Democrats should admit that the "surge" worked and -. I think. of Iraq asserting more independence. "They have influence.S. While I have long supported the withdrawal of U. I sincerely hope that the United States will remain actively engaged in Iraq." With Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's visit last week . citing Tehran's strong opposition to the security pact with Washington. culminating in Saddam's 1990 invasion." he said.to be followed. I am Signing a Status of Forces Agreement requiring the full withdrawal of U." Turning to Tehran. 28 January 2009. I have a hard time imagining anything as tedious as rehashing those tired debates from the campaign about the "surge" -. Vice President Biden recently said that the United States was “going to be able to keep our commitment” to reduce troop levels in Iraq to 50. Moreover. who has served as foreign minister since Iraq's first post-invasion administration. "There are less infiltrators coming from the Syrian border.perhaps we could have another round of arguments as to whether the surge brigades arriving in the spring of 2007 caused the Sunni turn against al-Qaeda in the fall of 2006? But in the interests of post-partisanship.S.S. even the chances of success in the Israeli-Palestinian issue Renegotiating SOFAs for troop withdrawal requires considerable diplomatic capital – Iraq proves. leader of the Iraqiya List. said Zebari. Sheikh Mohammad Sabah Al Salim Al Sabah.
And it’s . It’s the stupidest blunder in American foreign policy history. As negotiations dragged on. was in charge than they . Finally. The Cross-X. and Iraq and agreed to a SOFA which far more closely matched Obama's avowed vision for Iraq -. . When the Iraqis insisted on an Obama-style timeline for U. as stressed by many frustrated American commentators. Iraqi women probably have fewer rights today than they had women Saddam Hussein. Yes. We didn’t even have enough troops to secure the borders and keep the terrorists from pouring in from other countries. than they have now when the United States put the Shiia in power. he was an evil man. Bush agreed to the Obama-style timeline for U. no permanent bases -. playing high-stakes chicken at the expense of American military planning for the coming year and at the risk of the Iraqi political system not having adequate time to ratify the deal. .S. 2008 [Ted. Their tough line was encouraged by Iran.S. and sectarian killings. When negotiations began. Thanks to this pragmatism. Whether we stay for 50 years as John McCain may be necessary like Korea. Women in . I might speculate. Conservatives now like to claim the SOFA as a "Bush-negotiated" success. threatening to leave the U. it was widely assumed that Bush would extract from the Iraqis an agreement which made the removal of U. . But Bush entered the U. “Has the Iraq War depleted our military and diplomatic capital?” 5-22. forces in three years.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 47/148 SOFA negotiations looking for something entirely different than what emerged at the end. withdrawal. We still have enormous stockpiles of strategic weapons that have never been used. To his credit. as his finest moment in Iraq.S. he hedged -. Kennedy.S. Granted. .S. We have so messed up that country that I’m not sure even a democratic president can solve it. . pointless. the December 31 deadline loomed large. And here's where I will offer some sincere praise for Bush and his team.S. and God willing will never be used. took a hard line in the negotiations.S. and violence.com Thursday File disengagement from Iraq. withdrawal instead of a Bush/McCain.he didn't authorize Ambassador Ryan Crocker to sign off on the deal until after the Presidential election (on November 18). Obama can now work closely with the Iraqi government in managing the drawdown instead of spending his first months in office trying to wriggle out of an unacceptable deal. But he didn't. And what have we achieved? Saddam Hussein is gone. troops entirely contingent upon American assessments of conditions on the ground.withdrawal of U.S. no doubt.S. an assumption that the U. who was secular. Sorenson. We didn’t even have enough troops to secure the arsenals and armories so that the terrorists just robbed all of those weapons.style conditions-based aspirational time frame for U. withdrawal from Iraq.com/ideas/1085] Question: Has the Iraq War depleted our military and diplomatic capital? Ted Sorensen: We haven’t spent it all. But it also reflected Iraqi domestic considerations. And this. And they’re now being used against American troops.S. and an absolute rejection of an Obama- Iraqi leaders. he could have insisted on the latter.than his own. and there is no end in sight. This would have fit with his administration's often-repeated preferences. http://bigthink. and political wrangling going on inside Iraq. or stay for 50 months or weeks. . is among the reasons why Robert Gates will continue as Secretary of Defense.S. including several rounds of upcoming style timeline for withdrawal. There were widespread discussions of permanent U. troops without any legal mandate to remain in the country and forcing the hand of American negotiators. there will still be bloodshed. withdrawal. They used to be killed every day by stray American bombs. but now they’re killed today by other Iraqis. and not the surge. went into the SOFA talks intent on obtaining legitimacy for a long-term military presence in Iraq once the Security Council mandate ended. But elections and an intensely strong popular Iraqi hostility to the U. bases and a Korea-style presence for generations. . The Iraqis were also helped by the calender. But we have stretched thin our conventional forces in a foolish. but we don’t have democracy there. I don’t believe that with the United States having taken the lid off Pandora’s box . He could have continued to push for this conception closer to the December 31 deadline. to most everyone's surprise. And thus I offer Bush's willingness to sign the SOFA mandating U. the Iraqi leaders clearly kept a careful eye on the American Presidential elections and used Obama's stance to strengthen their own hand in negotiations. . . endless invasion and occupation of Iraq. would retain a free hand in its operations. But at that point he bowed to the political realities in the U. Former Special Counsel to Pres.S. So what have we achieved? And there are more Iraqi civilians being killed every day. Iraq inevitably devastates capital – withdrawal can’t help. occupation under any name.
-Turkish relationship cooled when Turkey refused to participate in Operation Iraqi Freedom. efforts there.-Turkish ties and to assuage Turkish security concerns. Because Russia weighs significantly in Turkish security calculations. and the United States and its allies should seriously consider Turkish offers to serve as an interlocutor between Iran and the West. Washington would risk compromising Turkey as a NATO ally and key regional partner. Turkey would obtain a stronger footing in alliance politics.S. weapons in Turkey. 2004 [David S. it would help convince Ankara (and others) of Turkey's value to NATO and have the additional benefit of pulling Ankara into a closer relationship with Washington and Brussels. Professor at the Naval Postgraduate School. this means intense negotiations to reassure extended deterrence commitments.com Thursday File Link – TNWs TNW withdrawal costs tons of diplomatic capital.4. if the United States and European Union task Turkey with a bigger role in the diplomatic back-and-forth with Iran.S. including the U.S. Preventing Turkey (and any other country in the region) from acquiring nuclear weapons is critical to international security. Turkey recently doubled its troop contribution to NATO's Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan--a boon to U. in international relations at the University of Southern California (1979).org/web-edition/features/thestatus-of-us-nuclear-weapons-turkey] A prescription for withdrawal. Empirically. and his visit to Turkey in April was warmly received. By incorporating Ankara into its new European missile defense plans--intended to protect Turkey and other countries vulnerable to Iran's short. Ship-based Aegis missile systems will be the backbone of the strategy. contain its chief security concerns. And treaty negotiations in pursuit of further reductions to the U. Ankara is in a position to positively influence Tehran's behavior. This is consistent with a longstanding pattern in which most allies have deemed strategic nuclear matters a US responsibility and have deferred to US judgement about the appropriate . Ebsco] Perhaps partly because of improved relations with Russia.” International Affairs 80. nuclear weapons from Turkish soil.S. July. Bush administration. and Russian arsenals should involve forward-deployed nuclear weapons. Critically. “The status of U. The political and strategic compasses are pointing to the eventual withdrawal of nuclear weapons from Europe--it's a strategy that certainly fits the disarmament agenda President Barack Obama has outlined. Project manager at the Ploughshares Fund and a Truman National Security Fellow AND **Research assistant at the Ploughshares Fund and a graduate student at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy. with considerations left open for later deployments of mobile ground-based interceptors in Eastern Europe or Turkey. 11-23.D. careful diplomacy will be required to improve U. During any such negotiations. More largely. Doing so requires a key factor that also is essential to paving the way toward withdrawal of U. “The US Nuclear Posture Review and the NATO allies. all of the administration's positive interactions with Turkey have been beneficial: Washington has supported Turkey's role as a regional energy supplier and encouraged Ankara as it undertakes difficult political reforms and works to resolve regional diplomatic conflicts.S. Ph. As a result. Bell & Loehrke. after which Turkish support for U. Yost. any removal of the weapons in Turkey would need to happen in concert with efforts to prevent Iran from turning its civil nuclear energy program into a military one. and foster the necessary conditions for the removal of tactical U. As Princeton scholar Joshua Walker has noted.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 48/148 Cross-X. Otherwise. The United States and Russia soon will seek ratification of a follow-on agreement to START. nuclear weapons: improved alliance relations. Turkey actually can play an important role in this complex process. Ankara's potential influence with Tehran should not be underestimated. nuclear weapons in Turkey”Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists http://www. But to get there..S. Turkey must be fully confident in NATO and U. reductions to Russian strategic and nonstrategic nuclear arsenals also would help improve Ankara's peace of mind. 2009 [Alexandra and Benjamin. policy declined through the end of the George W. Obama's election has helped to mend fences. given its long-established pragmatic relations and growing economic ties with Iran. security guarantees. The U.S. allied observers have expressed no noteworthy concerns about the effects of the NPR-mandated reductions in operationally deployed US strategic nuclear warheads on extended deterrence. If used properly. This cooperation could provide the bond with Washington and perception of security that Turkey seeks in the face of a potential Iranian bomb.S. For its part. First.S.and intermediate-range ballistic missiles--Washington could further shore up its military relationship with Turkey.thebulletin. In fact.S.
James L. and the debates about SALT II.S. right? Unfortunately. “The status of U. The Defense Department's 2008 report PDF on nuclear weapons management concurred: "As long as our allies value [the nuclear weapons'] political contribution.S. too. given the risk of prompt inter.S. Fifty of these bombs are reportedly PDF assigned for delivery by U. the weapons are still deployed as a matter of deterrence. Project manager at the Ploughshares Fund and a Truman National Security Fellow AND **Research assistant at the Ploughshares Fund and a graduate student at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy. so. In this event.com 49/148 Thursday File structure and level of US strategic nuclear forces. and the Netherlands. European doubts about America’s will to defend its allies. Turkey hosts an estimated 90 B61 gravity bombs at Incirlik Air Base.continental nuclear retaliation from Russia. Turkey has been a quiet custodian of U. Exceptions to this pattern have. bases would need to be brought in if Turkey's bombs were ever needed. (In addition to the 90 B61 bombs in Turkey. and forty are assigned for delivery by the Turkish Air Force. and its apparent confidence in the adequacy of its strategic nuclear posture—would probably matter more in reassuring allies than the size of the force and its specific characteristics. Any Europeans inclined to be worried about the credibility of US extended deterrence in view of the constraints on US strategic nuclear forces imposed by arms control or budgetary limits would probably be influenced by interactions with US experts. In fact.S. In 2005. policy activists and politicians—as was the case in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Japan and other beneficiaries of US nuclear guarantees.S. to defend the region against Soviet attack and to influence Soviet strategic calculations). However. he was met with fierce political resistance. supported the elimination of U. the last time US policy regarding strategic nuclear forces became a significant topic in transatlantic security discussions.S. did the weapons' strategic value. allied experts and officials would probably ask questions about the implications for NATO. tactical nuclear weapons in Turkey are without military value or purpose.) Four years later. Supposedly. Thus. and the Turkish Air Force is reportedly PDF not certified for NATO nuclear missions. That means removing them from the country should be simple. These doubts have been aggravated whenever Americans have expressed anxieties about US strategic capabilities— as during the ‘bomber gap’ and ‘missile gap’ controversies in the late 1950s and early 1960s. Today. there are another 110 or so U. the United States is obligated to provide and maintain the nuclear weapon capability. they argue that the weapons are "an essential political and military link" between NATO members and help maintain alliance cohesion. Germany.S. when NATO's top commander at the time.. the United States has removed all of its intermediate-range missiles from Turkey and reduced its other nuclear weapons there through gradual redeployments and arms control agreements. Aggressors are more likely to be deterred by NATO's conventional power or the larger strategic forces supporting its nuclear umbrella. tactical nuclear weapons. ICBM vulnerability and ‘grey area’ systems such as the Backfire bomber in the late 1970s and early 1980s. no permanent nuclear-capable U. and in some circumstances more such exceptions could occur. But as the Cold War waned.S. some U. the readiness of NATO's nuclear forces now is measured in months as opposed to hours or days. Jones. over the last few decades. nuclear weapons in Europe.S. arisen historically. If a debate emerged in the United States about the adequacy of the US strategic force posture in the context of national security (without necessarily considering extended deterrence for allied security). Such a relaxed posture makes clear just how little NATO relies on tactical nuclear weapons for its defense anymore. Ever since the Soviet Union launched Sputnik in 1957 and developed the world’s first ICBMs. 11-23. and European officials still maintain that the political value of the nuclear weapons is enough to keep them deployed across Europe. but the crux of deterrence is sustaining an aggressor's perception of guaranteed rapid reprisal--a perception the nuclear bombs deployed in Turkey cannot significantly add to because they are unable to be rapidly launched. Bell & Loehrke. Gen. Italy. Roadblocks to removal." Removal of TNWs strongly opposed – forces negotiations after the plan. the weapons were to be fired as one of the first retaliatory shots. the alliance has been subject to periodic crises of confidence—in essence. 2-23-2010 . U. Washington positioned intermediate-range nuclear missiles and bombers there to serve as a bulwark against the Soviet Union (i. Guardian. During the Cold War.e. TNW removal will meet with massive controversy – requires tons of diplomatic resources.org/web-edition/features/thestatus-of-us-nuclear-weapons-turkey] For more than 40 years. bombs located at bases in Belgium. 2009 [Alexandra and Benjamin. the perceived political commitment of the United States—including its manifest intentions. meaning nuclear-capable F-16s from other U.thebulletin.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. In particular. however. fighter wing is based at Incirlik. So in effect. In the event of a Soviet assault on Europe. pilots. nuclear weapons in Turkey”Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists http://www. matters of national and international security are never that easy.
In particular. Anders Fogh Rasmussen. further points need to be taken into consideration. but it will significantly strengthen the hand of those in the alliance who are opposed to a German-led initiative to remove the bombs unilaterally. They have been virulently opposed to the removal of the weapons which they perceive as a guarantee of a US presence in Europe against Russian aggression." a member of the group said.S. will say the roughly 200 remaining American B61 bombs on European soil should not be unilaterally withdrawn. the Guardian has learned. At least some NATO partners continue to value this. mostly on its western flank. nuclear forces in Europe and nuclear sharing with Alliance partners demonstrate a shared risk within NATO and binds America to the old continent.cfm? fa=view&id=22533&prog=zgp&proj=znpp] there are a number of political reasons for not entirely foregoing U. Nato clings to the outmoded notion that the 200 or so gravity bombs in five European countries are a necessary deterrent (against Russia. these political factors should not be neglected. nuclear presence gives those NATO members participating in nuclear sharing a greater say in nuclear decision making or. "You cannot get rid of them without reciprocity. nuclear forces in Europe at this point in time.co. which play host to most of the B61 stockpile. Nuclear Forces in Europe to Zero? Yes. have been silent on the issue in recent months. http://www. . “U. U. More ev – negotiations necessary – allies oppose removal without Russian reciprocation.guardian. “Burying Nuclear Relics of the cold war” http://www. But this has never happened. which has an estimated 4.S. The function of these systems is to keep the peace and to prevent wars. Concern over the B61 stockpile in Europe was heightened by a security breach two months ago when protesters managed to break in to an American base in Belgium where up to 20 of the bombs are thought to be stockpiled.org/publications/index. The group's word will not be final. Until now. three At the same time. Eastern European and Baltic countries are also uneasy about removing what they see as a symbol of America's preparedness to protect them against attack. lexis] A Nato advisory group helping to draft a new strategy for the military alliance will recommend that US nuclear bombs stay in Europe. Italy and Turkey. last month calling for a debate on the future of the tactical weapons. In order to avoid yet another split in NATO on a crucial issue.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. Senior Fellow at German Institute for International and Security Affairs. 3-30-2010 [Julian Borger. Germany won the support of Belgium. In addition. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "US bombs must stay in Europe. partly because of resistance from some former Soviet bloc states within Nato.carnegieendowment.com 50/148 Thursday File [Anne Penketh. but have quietly opposed moves to withdraw them from the US bases on their soil. the alliance has chosen to ignore calls for change and has eschewed public debate. But Not Yet”. Nato advisers say". The status quo has prevailed with the US saying it is waiting for an allied request to remove the B61 bombs from Germany. the U. the group of experts. chaired by the former US secretary of state Madeleine Albright. and foreign ministers from the five countries delivered a letter to the Nato secretary general. Diplomatic editor. the Netherlands.000 short-range nuclear weapons). Luxembourg and Norway for its stance.uk/commentisfree/2010/feb/23/nato-cold-war-nuclear-relics] It's decision time for the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. Italy and Turkey. They remain particularly interested in a strong nuclear deterrent vis-à-vis Russia and Iran. Thranert. Guardian. 2008 [Oliver. which has an estimated 2. which is confronted by a dilemma over the future of short-range US nuclear weapons in Europe. Moreover.S.000 tactical nuclear weapons. the Netherlands. More ev. The 11 experts will suggest that the bombs only be removed as part of a new treaty with Russia. more access to information.S. In a report due on 1 May. at least. Belgium. however.
Second.” Today’s Zaman. At this stage Turkish diplomatic sources decline to comment on what Ankara's policy will be if NATO presses and finally agrees on a unanimous Kibaroğlu. are for maintaining those weapons on Turkish soil to continue their deterrence capabilities in the region.do? load=detay&link=174286&bolum=100 According to the US-based Arms Control Association. Kibaroğlu. an estimated 480 tactical nuclear weapons remain deployed in five NATO non-nuclear-weapon states (Belgium. too.. and Turkish officials have no plans to request the withdrawal. Turkey sees the US as the backbone of deterrence in the region and does not favor the idea of scrapping the nukes from its soil. Italy. based on their threat analysis. the Netherlands and Turkey) and in the United Kingdom. 4/4/09). Sariibrahimoğlu ’09 (Lale.e.todayszaman. including Turkey." gives an in-depth analysis of the rationale behind the Turkish reluctance over the idea to scrap US nukes on its territory. an associate professor at Ankara's Bilkent University and an expert on arms control issues.com/tz-web/detaylar. “Turkey to face pressure over US nukes on its soil. which includes the Balkans. *****Internal Links***** . http://www. which also possesses an independent nuclear arsenal. told Today's Zaman that Turkish decision makers. But Mustafa Time to Say Farewell to Nukes in Turkey?. as to why these weapons should be retained in Turkey.com Thursday File Link – Turkey Hundreds of tactical nuclear weapons remain in NATO non-nuclear states. both the political and the military leadership. i. in an article he had published by the Routledge publishing house in December 2005 under the headline "Isn't it decision to withdraw the weapons from Turkish soil. the Middle East and the Mediterranean.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 51/148 Cross-X. Germany. Canada and Greece ended their participation in nuclear sharing. Kibaroğlu states in his article that the attitude of Turkish officials toward US nuclear weapons deployed in Turkey for over four decades has been static. Officials have understandable arguments. under NATO nuclear-sharing arrangements.
org/dynamic/stories/U/US_HILLARY_CLINTON_GLOBAL_CHANGES? SITE=NYMID&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT) CJC Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton stressed the need for stronger U. "civilian power.S. if not kill. from the fragile states of Afghanistan and Iraq to Pakistan.cnn. Bad timing for a tough test It Diplomatic focus is shifting to deal with the Egyptian crisis. diplomacy?”. 2011.sweep/index.html?iref=allsearch) CJC "There were a first few moments of wonderment and then she said. where she said the volume of false claims about the United States makes WASHINGTON (AP) -responding difficult. which were in free fall after a push for an Israeli settlement freeze reached a dead end.S. North and South Korea have been on a razor's edge for months. Clinton said officials would have to accept that positions and resources would need to be shifted to where they are needed most. “Clinton: Critical time for American leadership”.remind us all how crucial it is to have top-notch leadership on the ground and how quickly the ground can shift under our feet.com/2011/POLITICS/02/16/clinton. “Can Clinton remake U. Mubarak's support in the effort was critical. CNN Senior State Department Producer.S.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 52/148 Cross-X. Associated Press – 2/2 (Staff. and his ouster could paralyze.ap.com Thursday File 2NC Ext .Dip Cap Finite – Egypt Egypt has taken full focus of US diplomacy. diplomacy needed to be more nimble. World powers just concluded a fresh round of nuclear talks with Iran that produced no meaningful movement. Clinton's counselor and chief of staff. Now it is becoming reality. Although tensions had cooled somewhat in recent months. . 'We have to dive in. more open to the demands of the young.recent events in Egypt and certainly in that broader region . innovative and accountable than ever before. 2011. saying Wednesday the recent developments in Egypt and the Middle East demonstrate the critical need for America's global leadership. http://www.S." She said U. Clinton referred to the unrest gripping the Arab world in emphasizing the importance of U. Labott – 2/16 (Elise Labott. The events trade-off with other issues.'" is perhaps her toughest test yet as the nation's top diplomat. http://hosted. For two years. more open to technology." Clinton told the gathering of diplomats at the State Department. Clinton was impatient to stop careering from crisis to crisis on the peninsula and engage Pyongyang in a meaningful way that both calmed the situation with South Korea and moved North Korea toward abandoning its nuclear ambitions. February 16. "What's going on today . the administration's ambitious goal of achieving Palestinian statehood by the end of the year. talking about the need for countries to become more democratic. Feb 2. recalled Cheryl Mills. The timing could not be worse. and the Obama administration is struggling over how to respond. Events elsewhere in the world aren't looking any more promising. diplomacy in global hot spots. Speaking to an audience of nearly every American ambassador. killing four people. There is a tradeoff resources are limited. The two countries exchanged artillery fire in November after North Korea shelled a South Korean island. she has traveled the globe. Clinton had hoped to start the year reviving peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians.
from the fragile states of WASHINGTON (AP) — Afghanistan and Iraq to Pakistan. diplomatic cables by the WikiLeaks website. She urged ambassadors to embrace the potential of Facebook." She said U. “Clinton: Critical time for American leadership”. "What's going on today — recent events in Egypt and certainly in that broader region — remind us all how crucial it is to have top-notch leadership on the ground and how quickly the ground can shift under our feet. Associated Press – 2/2 /11 (Staff. Referring to the release of confidential U.S. saying Wednesday the recent developments in Egypt and the Middle East demonstrate the critical need for America's global leadership. "We are all in unchartered territory.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jQd9Kvg9Uv2cvUt1Qs9k94zAgEuA? docId=185e3876cccf45b782bfa9245e30be45) CJC Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton stressed the need for stronger U. innovative and accountable than ever before." Clinton said. where she said the volume of false claims about the United States makes responding difficult.S.S.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 53/148 Cross-X.google. Twitter and other forums to better project the .S. Feb 2. Clinton referred to the unrest gripping the Arab world in emphasizing the importance of U." Clinton told the gathering of diplomats at the State Department. diplomacy needed to be more nimble. protests and technological developments that have the capacity to change the lives of millions of people. http://www. Focus on other issues trades-off with our ability to focus on the unrest in the Middle East. diplomacy in global hot spots. Speaking to an audience of nearly every American ambassador. Clinton said ambassadors needed to adapt to a "fast-changing world" that includes theft. "civilian power. Clinton said officials would have to accept that positions and resources would need to be shifted to where they are needed most. 2011.com Thursday File 2NC Ext – Dip Cap Finite – Middle East Diplomatic efforts must be focused on hot spots to deal with those crises.
Increased environmental regulations could cause countries to lessen their focus on international threats of violence. Bishop Grewell is a research associate with PERC. these priorities had been opposing hostile domination of key geographic regions. Foreign Policy. page 46] Diplomacy is the first option in addressing potential threats to U. lessening the focus on other issues and even creating conflicts between issues.S. The daily conduct of diplomacy through U. As Schaefer writes. Fellow in the Center for International Trade at Heritage Foundation.com Thursday File 2NC Ext – Dip Cap Finite Diplomatic capital is finite – each new issue trades off with existing issues Anderson & Grewell – 01 (Terry L.org/pdf/ps20. J. securing vital resources. "Because diplomatic currency is finite . . it is critically important that the United States focus its diplomatic efforts on issues of paramount importance to the nation. Diplomatic capital is finite – plan prevents focus on more important issues.pdf] Greater international environmental regulation can increase international tension. Traditionally. J. concerns—it is critically important that the United States focus its diplomatic efforts on issues of paramount importance to the nation. As countries must watch over more and more issues arising in the international policy arena. Foreign policy is a bag of goods that includes issues from free trade to arms trading to human rights. they will stretch the resources necessary to deal with traditional international issues.S. Diplomatic capital is finite – each new issue trades off with another one. these priorities have been opposing hostile domination of key geographic regions. Increased environmental regulations could cause countries to lessen their focus on international threats of violence such as the sale of ballistic missiles or border conflicts between nations. Schaeffer. Bozeman. and ensuring access to foreign economies (Holmes and Moore 1996. such as the sale of ballistic missiles or border conflicts between nations. Traditionally.perc. “Because diplomatic currency is finite . “The Greening of Foreign Policy. . . . national interests and expressing U. 2001 [Terry and Bishop. they will stretch the resources necessary to deal with traditional international issues.S. 427) CJC Foreign policy is a bag of goods that includes issues from free trade to arms trading to human rights. Int'l L.S.S. 2000 [Brett. The Greening of U. Each new issue in the bag weighs it down. supporting our allies. Anderson is executive director of Political Economy Research Center ("PERC")The Center for Free Market Environmentalism. Stanford University. Each new issue in the bag weighs it down. 2001 2 Chi. As Schaefer (2000. Because diplomatic currency is finite—clearly. missions and representatives is essential in articulating U. foreign countries and officials cannot be expected to endlessly support and promote U. supporting our allies. concerns and priorities to foreign nations. . Fall.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 54/148 Cross-X. lessening the focus on other issues and even creating conflicts between issues. 46) writes." Diplomatic capital is finite – issues trade off. Anderson & Grewell. interests and eliciting cooperation and support for those interests abroad.S. it is critically important that the United States focus its diplomatic efforts on issues of paramount importance to the nation.” http://www. securing vital resources. As countries must watch over more and more issues arising in the international policy arena. and ensuring access to foreign economies. and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. xi-xvii). Montana.
December 2000. securing vital resources. lessening the focus on other issues and even creating conflicts between issues. “Because diplomatic currency is finite . “The Greening of Foreign Policy”.” . Bishop. 46) writes. former research associate for PERC. As countries must watch over more and more issues arising in the international policy arena. http://www. . Increased environmental regulations could cause countries to lessen their focus on international threats of violence such as the sale of ballistic missiles or border conflicts between nations.com Thursday File Anderson and Grewell 2000 (Terry L.. supporting our allies.org/pdf/ps20. Foreign policy is a bag of goods that includes issues from free trade to arms trading to human rights. Each new issue in the bag weighs it down. He is a graduate of Stanford University. J.perc. it is critically important that the United States focus its diplomatic efforts on issues of paramount importance to the nation. Executive Director of the Property and Environment Research Center. PERC Policy Series: PS-20. Traditionally.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 55/148 Cross-X. these priorities have been opposing hostile domination of key geographic regions. As Schaefer (2000. the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies. and Northwestern Law School. and ensuring access to foreign economies. . they will stretch the resources necessary to deal with traditional international issues.pdf) Greater international environmental regulation can increase international tension.
S. DoD will continue to improve key capabilities that support strategic communication.com Thursday File 2NC Ext – Diplomatic Capital Key – Plan Cost The plan would have to be spun to control perceptions – this requires extensive diplomatic focus. Chief among these are policy implementation. Effective strategic communication requires close collaboration across interagency lines at all stages. Strategic communication is essential in COIN. . Together. public affairs. 2010) As part of the U. the effects of these activities support national objectives. and stability operations. government's integrated civilian-military efforts to interact effectively with a variety of audiences and stakeholders. information operations. Effective strategic communication also requires the orchestration of multiple lines of operation. and public diplomacy and engagement. and where adversaries often enjoy the advantage of greater local knowledge and calibrate their activities to achieve sophisticated information objectives. force employment. February 1. and DoD works particularly closely with the Department of State to support State’s core role in communicating with foreign governments and international publics. where population and stakeholder beliefs and perceptions are crucial to our success.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 56/148 Cross-X. civil affairs. The Quadrennial Defense Review in 2010 (QDR Report prepared for Congress. CT.
February 2. “Clinton warns of 'uncharted territory' in wake of Egypt unrest”. The U.S. Dougherty – 2/2 (Jill Dougherty. CNN Staff. Clinton noted that the U. The meeting was scheduled for early February." Clinton called for the unprecedented "Global Chiefs of Mission" meeting several months ago.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article/562996/201102111907/Egypts-Flight. because "we Washington (CNN) -figured it would be quiet." "As we see.S.egypt/index. In a doomsday scenario. quietly helping Egypt's military stay in power for as long as it takes to ensure that Mubarak's successor isn't an Islamist enabler.S. policy and interests in the region will largely depend on who ends up in power. with what's going on today. CNN – 2/2 (Elise Labott and Josh Levs. diplomats Wednesday that "we are all in uncharted territory.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS %3A+Politics%29) CJC In the midst of mass uprisings and historic change in the Middle East. That could even trigger a most dangerous war between Israel and Iran. Nobody expects that worst-case nightmare to come through. recent events in Egypt and certainly in that broader region. Tunisia and even Jordan could come to power. forcing the closing of the Suez Canal and allowing Iran fill the vacuum. some of which we are only beginning to understand. they obviously must be moderates — so we can work with these guys!" Majority rule without liberty amounts to the tyranny of the majority — a chilling prospect in the Mideast.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 57/148 Cross-X. killing critical diplomatic and military relationships." Even as news reports Wednesday showed protesters clashing on the streets of Cairo. CNN Foreign Affairs Correspondent. (they) remind us all of how crucial it is to have top-notch leadership on the ground. McCarthy warns that Effective diplomacy is critical to deal with the Egyptian crisis. Clinton added: "There are too many forces at work. Investors Business Daily – 2/11 (Editorial Staff. And how quickly that ground can shift under our feet. should now make the best of a bad situation.cnn. ambassador to Egypt. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told a gathering of U. the . to development breakthroughs that have the potential to change millions of lives. 2011. http://www. extremist Islamic factions in Egypt. Regardless of the outcome. 02/11/2011. ambassadors from around the world. Margaret Scobey.S.us.investors. But it's the only "democracy" the Brotherhood will back.diplomatic." she said. not just in Egypt but in the host of other countries on the verge of transformation.challenges/index. we are all in uncharted territory.cnn. was not able to attend the State Department meeting. bringing together U. US diplomacy is stretched to the brink and need full focus to deal with a situation that can change quickly. http://www. not a culture of governance.S.com/2011/POLITICS/02/02/us." US must ensure a peaceful transition now to prevent the unrest from rising creating a scenario for radicalization that would trigger war between Israel and Iran. http://www. Turning serious at the end of her remarks.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS %3A+Politics%29) CJC The future of U.com Thursday File Military K2 Secular Transition US must support the military to ensure there is time for political parties to get organized to prevent a rise of the Muslim Brotherhood." And he exposes the preposterous State Department delusion that because alQaida operatives "figure the Brothers are soft. to WikiLeaks disclosures of diplomatic cables. "From the theft of confidential cables to 21st century protest movements." Pointing to a range of challenges. 2011. from congressional pressure to cut the State Department budget and foreign aid. Too many cross currents and complexities. Clinton said "we have a tough road ahead. she joked. February 2. “The Sweep: The risk of democracy in the Middle East”.com/2011/POLITICS/02/02/sweep. however. Egypt. “Editorial: Obama Botched Egypt — Here's How To Fix It”.htm) CJC "For Islamists. democracy is a tool for acquiring power.
which is seems to be the catchphrase of the week for Middle East analysts. That could give way to a permanent resistance that creates even more pressure for chance.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. Supporting the status quo could embolden leaders to hold on. further radicalizes the Arab street and creates even more anger at the United States. .com 58/148 Thursday File Obama administration has concluded that it must try to be on the right side of history. possibly becoming even more oppressive.
Most of Egypt’s civilian police officers fled their posts on January 28 CAIRO. and other strategic facilities throughout the country. it remains unclear exactly what part the army will play in its role as the transitional government that Egyptians have demanded should lead to elections by September. however. The call-up also reflects continuing political tensions in the country following the forced resignation of President Hosni Mubarak. have been stressing that “they are going to do what the people want. http://www. apparently including its long-standing peace accord with Israel.S. The call-up appeared to be related to the army’s continuing need to maintain stability in the absence of the civilian police. It also dissolved Egypt’s parliament. the military government announced that it would abide by all treaties. whose elections last fall have been widely denounced by domestic and international critics as fraudulent. 2011. Diplomats.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 59/148 Cross-X. military police in their traditional camouflage uniforms and red berets have been guarding the U. “Egyptian Army Calls Up Military Reservists to Help Keep Peace”. Egypt’s ambassador said this morning in a television interview that Mubarak’s health was deteriorating. one diplomat suggested. added that the military had still not disclosed when the three-decade-old emergency law granting the government the right to arrest and hold people without formal charges or judicial oversight would be lifted.com/world/2011/02/14/egyptianarmy-calls-military-reservists-help-peace/) CJC The Egyptian Army today called up thousands of military reservists as soldiers cleared Tahrir Square. On Sunday. the diplomat said. including Secretary of Defense Field Marshall Mohammed Tantawi.com Thursday File A2: Military Not Relinquish Power Diplomats are working with the military now. Embassy. Miller – 2/14 (Judith Miller. In Washington. Since then. A western diplomat said that it was believed that former president Mubarak was still in his residence at the Egyptian seaside resort of Sharm el-Sheikh. The officers. had repeatedly indicated that the army has been acting in good faith and has assured foreign governments that it does not seek a longterm role in governing the country. including by the police. There have been labor strikes across the country. who demonstrated on Monday demanding higher wages and better working conditions. government ministries. it issued yet another communiqué announcing that it had suspended the constitution that has been structured to give Egypt’s president almost unlimited terms in office and authority and inhibits political opposition. February 14. A western diplomat said that senior army officers. political journalist. the state-run television center. but western diplomats in Cairo said they had no independent information about the state of his current condition. Egypt -in the face of overwhelming numbers of protesters throughout Cairo and other Egyptian cities. They don’t want to rule indefinitely. On Saturday. Egypt’s autocratic ruler for almost 30 years. which Egyptian sources have identified as stomach cancer.foxnews. Although former President Mubarak ceded power to the army. the Egyptian military officials leading the country through an unchartered period of political transition are stressing that they do not want to govern Egypt indefinitely or. . Mubarak has flown twice in as many years to Germany for treatment of an undisclosed medical condition.” the diplomat said. Myriad youthful opposition groups have been holding almost round-the-clock meetings to craft and present a unified statement of their demands for reform to the military. be responsible for Egypt’s crushing problems. the epicenter of the extraordinary revolution that has transformed Egypt and the political map of the Middle East. In a recent meeting with western diplomats.
And there is nothing America can do to prevent that.S-style military. With one exception. K2 Transition – Military Diplomacy with Egyptian military is critical to ensuring a stable transition. And that can only happen if Mubarak steps down. has looked to the Egyptian military as a partner primarily on regional security and anti-terrorism issues.html) CJC It is not clear that Mubarak's regime will survive the week. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mike Mullen. 2011. Not that the new president of Egypt should. February 2.S.realclearpolitics. http://www. In the past. the United States has completely reequipped and trained a new. Since 1979. This is not an unfamiliar role for militaries in moments of transition. “Egypt's Future Will Be Decided by the Military”.and even Pinochet’s person – would be respected as long as they did not block the transition to democracy and limited their role to upholding security. Babbin – 2/2 (Jed Babbin served as a Deputy Undersecretary of Defense under George H. efforts to apply gentle pressure must now be followed by a more forceful message to those who can get Mubarak’s attention in a way that we have not. So Egypt need not turn out like Iran — where the shah’s military split and went down with him.cfm?uuid=1690BD3B49D6-43ED-ADDD-DE8AD70C9948) CJC So. should be on the phone with their Egyptian comrades to offer assurances of aid and support if they choose to stand against a radical Islamic regime. But rather that it can be the guarantor of a peaceful transition to a new. but the military was actually given guarantees by the new Chilean democrats that its corporate interests . similarly in the Philippines and Indonesia. respected force in the new Egypt. if the president permits them.com/printstory. The military is the only institution in Egypt that can convince him to do so – and assure him the dignified retirement from power that he apparently craves. And the experienced former ambassador to Egypt.W. Whether it falls this week or in coming months. Obama has said enough and is just about on target. . And we have paid for it – about $1 billion per year. Turkey’s military.". He is the author of several bestselling books including "Inside the Asylum. when I was serving in the Carter administration. with a few bumpy moments. Now that military is the key to Egypt’s near-term future. http://dyn. a discredited dictator was eased out (with American urging) and the military stayed on to provide stability for the new democracies. the U. Bush. leaving a vacuum that allowed for a great deal of post-revolutionary violence and radicalization. Quandt – 2/2 (William B. Frank Wisner.S.may pass into the radical Islamic sphere. it is time for President Barack Obama to take the next step — to cash in on the close military-tomilitary relationship that has been forged between the United States and Egypt over the years. The key now is not a lot of public statements from the president. Many of our most senior generals have longstanding relationships with their Egyptian comrades.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 60/148 Cross-X." and "In the Words of Our Enemies. or will. Augusto Pinochet was ousted. In Tunisia as well. the military remains on the sidelines and allows a radical regime to take power. Egypt's immediate future will be decided by the Egyptian military. Egypt . Diplomacy with the military is key to avoiding extremist from taking over the government. These officers.like Turkey before it . as is most likely. Quandt is a politics professor at the University of Virginia. If.com/articles/2011/02/02/egypts_future_will_be_decided_by_the_milit ary. U. That. emerge from its ranks. U. perhaps CIA Director Leon Panetta to their counterparts might help. In Chile. the hated dictator Gen. “Time for Obama to press Mubarak”. But a few calls from Defense Secretary Robert Gates. Now we need to think of it as a partner in helping to consolidate Egypt’s democratic transition. would be an effective American influence on Egypt's immediate future.politico. we seem to be witnessing an encouraging example of the military helping with the transition to a new order. The crisis needs to be brought to an end soon. 2011. could weigh in as well — with the simple message that the prolonged transition envisaged by Mubarak does not seem viable. He actively participated in the Camp David peace negotiations in 1978. has played such a role. democratic order. the kind of bond that can only be achieved by serving side by side in training and military exercises.com Thursday File Dip. He served on the National Security Council dealing with Middle East affairs in the Nixon and Carter administrations. and only that. If the Egyptian military acts soon — and in accord with the sentiment of the Egyptian people — they will emerge as a strong. February 2.
and not to crackdown on the protesters. Wall Street Journal – 2/3 (JONATHAN WEISMAN And ADAM ENTOUS. He is the author of several bestselling books including "Inside the Asylum. It was Sadat who braved the Arab currents to sign the Camp David Accords. is in a difficult spot with the protestors. and the parallel Iranian goal of establishing a Muslim caliphate hasn't taken hold in Egypt yet because of the three men who have ruled it for nearly sixty years. and the demonstrators are waiting for Washington to push Mr. February 2.com/articles/2011/02/02/egypts_future_will_be_decided_by_the_milit ary. the first real peace agreement between Israel and a formerly-hostile neighbor. officials believe for now the military it will stay on the sidelines.W. an Egypt expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and an informal White House adviser. leaving it to the police and security forces to quell violence between anti-government protesters and Mubarak supporters.wsj. Staff Writers. When Nasser died in 1970. however. took over. sees the Egyptian military as likely the only institution that can guide a smooth and inclusive transition. The first is the Egyptian military. Two factors will control the result of the crisis that now envelops the Mubarak regime. who seized power in 1952. Some U.to turn Egypt into another Syria or a satellite of Iran. Dunne said. one of his protégés. U. “White House Charts a New Plan”. “Egypt's Future Will Be Decided by the Military”. is watching what happens with the demonstrations. likewise. the U. many of whom have critiqued the Obama Michele administration's stutter-step embrace of regime change in Egypt. The second is the efforts of Iran and Syria . http://www." Ms.realclearpolitics. has been exerting pressure on the Egyptian military not to take sides. leading to the 1967 Arab-Israeli war.S. said the White House needs to convince the Egyptian army to step in. Pan-Arabism has since disappeared except from the mind of Libya's Muammar Qaddafi.com Thursday File Diplomacy with Egyptian military is critical to a stable transition government.S. Since last week. "Nobody wants to be the first to make the hard decisions. officials believe the violence would worsen if the military intervened.html? mod=rss_Politics_And_Policy) CJC Dunne.html) CJC The only stabilizing force is the Egyptian military which has the power. Only the Egyptian military can ensure that the new government is not radical. Mubarak swept into power at Sadat's death. Nasser was a pan-Arabist. even if only to quell the fighting. Bush. http://online.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 61/148 Cross-X. and perhaps the motivation. FEBRUARY 3. to prevent Egypt from being subordinated by its Islamic neighbors. experts said. 2011. Mubarak aside. 2011." and "In the Words of Our Enemies.S.S.independently and in combination with Egyptian Islamists . Anwar alSadat. Sadat was assassinated by Muslim radicals in 1981 because of his willingness to make peace with Israel in the Camp David agreement. . The Mubarak regime is a lineal descendant of Gamel Abdel Nasser's. fervently attempting to ally Arabs in a unified front against Israel. Babbin – 2/2 (Jed Babbin served as a Deputy Undersecretary of Defense under George H.". The U. The military. restore order and set up the new government.com/article/SB10001424052748703960804576120064121963244. Israel.
" Rubin said. will come in the months ahead as U.S.. CNN – 2/3 (CNN Wire Staff. but at the same pushing to ensure armed extremist militias aren't allowed to claim the mantle of democratic legitimacy.reaction/index. The U.com/2011/WORLD/africa/02/03/egypt.cnn. . February 3.obama.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss %2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS%3A+Politics%29) CJC The real difficulty. “Official: U. when the fall of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi led to the rise of the fundamentalist regime still in power today. Rubin said. 2011.S. Egypt talk ways to 'move' political transition forward”.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 62/148 Cross-X. policymakers try to prevent Egypt from following the path Iran took after 1979. http://www. needs to make clear the Egyptian elections happen "come hell or high water.com Thursday File Sustained Diplomacy Checks Extremist Rise Continued diplomacy will be critical to ensure democratic elections and prevent extremist take over.S.
Feb 3 2011.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 63/148 Cross-X. in talks over possible Mubarak departure”.another close U. Continued pressure on other allies for reform is critical to checking back spillover.S. Clinton spoke to Jordan's King Abdullah -.com/article/2011/02/04/us-egypt-usaidUSTRE71175920110204? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Amid concerns that a wave of protests that erupted in Tunisia and then Egypt could spread to other Middle Eastern capitals. part of a wave of change by authoritarian governments across the Middle East seeking to head off Egypt-style unrest. ally -.com Thursday File Dip Cap Checks Spillover Diplomatic capital is not limited to Egypt in the crisis. “U. Reuters – 2/3 (Steve Holland and Susan Cornwell Staff.reuters.S. http://www. Obama phoned Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh to follow up his pledges of reform with concrete actions. The White House said Obama also told Saleh it is imperative that Yemen take forceful action against al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.on Thursday to discuss Egypt and to express support for his own recent reforms. .
The United States has little to no capacity to produce oil. Most of us have no thoughts about the issue other than the current price of a gallon of gas.reuters. nuclear watchdog. The have the influence necessary to support the transition. long-lasting depression.N. it is totatlly dependent on foreign oil. the U. Among those who appreciate that the world's petroleum resources are finite. the government would go to no ends to secure more. Nearly everyone will admit that continuing oil shortages and that high (above $100 a barrel) oil prices would be devastating to the prospects for economic recovery and that persisting very high (say above $200 a barrel) oil prices would send the U.com. Mohamed ElBaradei. The problem is that few are willing to consider seriously the accumulating evidence that Interestingly.com/commentary/national/6896-the-peak-oil-crisis-a-mid-year-review. the retired head of the U.fcnp. increasing oil prices and eventually oil shortages within the next few years are as inevitable as the sunrise. Department of State said. Extinction Broward 9 ((Member of Triond) http://newsflavor.com/opinions/will-an-economic-collapse-kill-you/ AD: 7-7-09 )ET Now its time to look at the consequences of a failing world economy. "Our embassy in Cairo maintains an active outreach to a wide range of political and civil society representatives in Cairo. The first thing that will happen after an economic collapse will be war over resources.S. and many other economies into a deep. If the United States stopped getting foreign oil. Reuters – 2/1 (“U. http://www. referring to U. envoy in Egypt spoke with ElBaradei: statement” Feb 1. State Department is busy brokering a peaceful transition to democracy in Egypt now. ambassador to Cairo made contact with prominent Egyptian political activist Mohamed ElBaradei on Tuesday to discuss a political transition in Egypt.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 64/148 Cross-X. Retired 30-year CIA analyst who has been following the peak oil story since 1999. A. C.com/article/2011/02/01/us-egypt-usa-elbaradei-idUSTRE7107ZJ20110201? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC The U. if there were a war with any other major power over oil. and the mission has been especially busy in the last several days to help convey our strong support for an orderly transition. 2011. these wars would most likely involve nuclear weapons. With five offical nations having nuclear weapons. one of the most highly respected analysts of peak oil issues in the United States. there would of course be retaliation. "One such contact was between the ambassador and Mohamed ElBaradei today. Ambassador Margaret Scobey. closing the Suez Canal would cause oil price shocks and these Rising oil prices destroy the economy Whipple 7/14/2010 (Tom. and four more likely to have them there could be major consequences of another world war. extend the Hilliker evidence.S. has demanded President Hosni Mubarak quit office and said he was ready to play a role in any shift to a democratic system in Egypt.S. few understand the proximity of the crisis." the U." it CAIRO (Reuters) added in the statement sent to Reuters in Cairo.S.S. Editor of the daily Peak Oil News and the weekly Peak Oil Review. The United States currency will become useless and will have no way of securing reserves. and with five or more countries with nuclear weapons *****Impact Scenarios***** ***Suez Canal Shell*** .S. This alone vividly illustrates how poorly the true state of the global economic situation is understood and the size of the shock that most of us are in for. State Department said in a statement. Once one nation launches a nuclear weapon.com Thursday File A2: No Influence U.S. like Russia or China. FNCP.html) six in ten surveyed by Pew believe that the economic situation will be better soon and that the recession is only temporary. The Peak Oil Crisis: A Mid-Year Review. http://www.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. The risk is so high that acting to save the economy is the most important issue facing us in the 21st century. .com 65/148 Thursday File there would most likely be a world nuclear war.
reuters. Staff. .286. 2011. at 1. economy and rising earnings. envoy in Cairo”. If the canal were closed it would create price shocks and market disruption. stocks rose as investors focused on the expanding U. Egypt's Suez Canal allows the transport of crude oil and liquefied natural gas bound for the U. satisfied the situation in Egypt would not escalate into widespread violence or turmoil. a 28month high. Brent crude oil futures surged to $101 a barrel. Gibbs said no disruptions had been reported in the Suez Canal. The broad Standard & Poor's 500 Index closed up 0.77 percent.S.12.S. http://www. U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 66/148 Cross-X. chairman of the U. as anxieties rose that protests in Egypt could spark instability across the Middle East and disrupt oil shipments through the Suez Canal. Senator Jeff Bingaman. warned on Monday that the escalating protests in Egypt could affect U.com Thursday File Close Suez Canal = Price Shocks Egypt crisis is raising oil prices for fear of closing the Suez Canal.S. and other countries. Senate's energy panel. access to affordable energy supplies. National security aides at the White House were monitoring the effect the unrest and uncertainty in Egypt may have on oil and financial markets.S. Jan 31.com/article/2011/02/01/us-egypt-usaidUSTRE70R6A920110201?pageNumber=1) CJC The crisis is taking its toll on oil markets.S. Reuters – 1/31 (Steve Holland and Andrew Quinn. “U. urges Egypt's Mubarak do more.S.
com Thursday File Egypt K2 Oil Markets Egypt key to global Oil flows. For now. no evidence suggests that either of those avenues will be blocked.000 barrels a day. http://www.S. Harder – 2/1 (Amy Harder reports on energy and the environment for National Journal and moderates an expert blog on the topic as well. Over an Imported Barrel”. “Egyptian Unrest Leaves U. but Pumphrey said the risk could compel individual shippers to slow down shipments there or choose alternate. 2011.nationaljournal.com/member/daily/egyptian-unrest-leavesu-s-over-an-imported-barrel-20110131) CJC Egypt is in a unique position in the oil supply chain even though it produces only 700. . longer routes. The Suez Canal and Sumed pipeline serve as vital transportation arteries for global oil shipments.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 67/148 Cross-X. February 1.
Gen.com/wpdyn/content/article/2011/02/02/AR2011020206619. had his second conversation this week with Lt. the Egyptian military's chief of staff. “As crisis deepens in Egypt. Adm. Sami Enan. through which much of the West's imported oil travels. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. 'can't dictate events'”.html?hpid=topnews) CJC Concern was also growing about possible interference in traffic along the Suez Canal.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 68/148 Cross-X. February 2.com Thursday File Egypt – Military K2 Suez Canal Egyptian military can prevent the closing of the Suez Canal with US influence. Mike Mullen. John Kirby said the chairman "expressed confidence in the Egyptian military's ability to provide for their country's security. Washington Post – 2/2 (Karen DeYoung Washington Post Staff Writer. and Mullen spokesman Capt. both internally and throughout the Suez Canal area.S. U.washingtonpost. http://www. 2011." .
It isn’t. Since World War II. travels daily. But if the fire station is on fire. Not because Egypt is a major oil exporter. And instability in that oil kingdom is how mega-oil shocks are made. every recession except one was preceded by a sharp rise in oil prices. “What if Saudi Arabia erupts?”. In other words. To curtail their opposition. this could be as devastating as a second heart attack is for a fragile patient just recovering from a first one. If the Saudis should decide to emulate their Egyptian brethren. A new oil shock would cause our economy to nose-dive back into a recession. .html#ixzz1Cz60q1YQ) CJC The demonstrations in Egypt and elsewhere in the Arab world could well be the harbinger of an excruciating oil crisis. about 5 percent of the overall global tanker trade. For decades. studies show. Luft – 2/3 (Gal Luft is executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security.politico.com/news/stories/0211/48698. 2011. Saudi monarchs have placated their subjects with cradle-to-grave. Saudi Arabia is the oil market’s only firefighter. it also holds 70 percent of the world’s spare production capacity. February 3. And not even because it controls the Suez Canal.com Thursday File Impact Magnifier: Saudi Arabia Continued instability in Egypt risks revolt and uprising in Saudi Arabia causing megaoil shocks causing the global economy to nose dive. there will be no one to save the neighborhood. Inspired by the events elsewhere in the Sunni Muslim world. experts have warned about the fragility of the House of Saud. while taming the Wahhabi establishment through charitable contributions to religious institutions worldwide. Saudi Arabia not only is the world’s largest exporter.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 69/148 Cross-X. through which 1.8 million barrels. petrodollar-funded entitlement programs. this social contract could face a challenge at the worst possible time — when the House of Saud’s top echelon is ill and geriatric. capable of supplying the market when others falter. Egypt is relevant to the oil market because it may be a bellwether for the disgruntled masses in Saudi Arabia. a new oil crisis might be upon us. In today’s economy. http://www. Egypt produces less than 1 percent of the world’s oil.
Barring some disaster or tremendous folly. In Defense of Primacy. selective engagers. If so. The totality of that equation of power answers the first issue. “Egypt 'revolution' opens opportunity for U. It is their achievement that opened the window to international soft power. 2011. and offshore balancers. who want no foreign military commitments. The euphemism denotes the use of non-military tools — diplomacy.S. etc.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 70/148 Cross-X. — rather than overt force to achieve U.S. And Egypt offers an opportunity for soft power — thanks to the courage and resilience of Egyptians who rallied peacefully for almost a month to prompt Mubarak's departure. owing to aid and training the past few decades. It is the Egyptian people who are the true heroes of this peaceful uprising. economic and military leader. and they are more than justified to feel vindicated. They include isolationists. Egypt will be a test case for US soft-power. At the outset of this discussion.com/2011-02-15/news/fl-egyptsoft-power-obama-editorial-a20110215_1_soft-power-egyptian-people-egyptian-revolution) CJC The euphoric moment is passing. February 15. either because the United States lacks the power to maintain its primacy and should withdraw from its global commitments. Those arguing against primacy claim that the United States should retrench. who want U. Proponents of retrenchment focus a great deal on the costs of U. There are two seapower to defend its interests. or because the maintenance of primacy will lead the United States into the trap of "imperial overstretch. and can't be allowed to be lost.com Thursday File ***Leadership Shell*** A. That means the next phase in Egypt will have begun — the transition to a democracy — and that will be an opportunity for the United States to employ and test "soft power. in any of its guises. Far from it. Nonetheless. must be avoided. So the debate revolves around the desirability of maintaining American primacy. who want a modified form of selective engagement that would have the United States abandon its landpower presence abroad in favor of relying on airpower and retrenchment. however." In the previous issue of The National Interest. US hegemony solves all problems Thayer 06 Associate Professor in the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies at Missouri State University [Bradley. what would have worked — or was needed — in one country would not automatically apply to another. action--but they fail to realize what is good about American primacy. US must remain flexible and constantly engaged to influence the military to ensure a transition to democracy. hard power debate of recent years? The soft power phrase became vogue in the aftermath of serious divisions over the war in Iraq. Bush administration. it's critical to acknowledge that Egypt is not Iraq. And certainly as an alternative to the Iraq model employed by the George W. That leverage must now be used skillfully to assist and ensure a fair election that places a legitimate government in place. It is an opportunity that can't be missed. imperil American security and deny the United States and its allies the benefits of primacy.S. in fact. he rates nowhere near the likes of a brutal despot like Saddam Hussein. Military leaders say they will run the country until elections are held in six months.S. As such. Such is the case with international relations and diplomacy — cookie-cutter." Remember that term? Remember the soft power vs. and Egypt's revolt will recede from the front pages. The United States has much influence with Egypt's military leaders. And. Sun-Sentinel – 2/15 (Sun Sentinel Editorial Board. that will remain the case for the foreseeable future. Many claim a sense of pride that they achieved their aims non-violently. aid. With few exceptions. economic and soft power capabilities. If the United States adopted such a strategy.1 Those arguing for a grand strategy of retrenchment are a diverse lot. it would be a profound strategic mistake that would lead to far greater instability and war in the world. military commitments to centers of economic might. one could argue that soft power's limits were sadly on display during the protests in Iran last year. But critical issues in any discussion of America's grand strategy: Can America remain the dominant state? Should it strive to do this? America can remain dominant due to its prodigious military. A GRAND strategy of ensuring . The National Interest. http://articles. December (lexis)] A grand strategy based on American primacy means ensuring the United States stays the world's number one power--the diplomatic. soft power”. objectives. the Egyptian military has suspended parliament and the country's constitution. even those who advocate retrenchment acknowledge this. Failure would undermine US soft-power moving forward. The price and risks of primacy are reported in newspapers every day. The ouster of Hosni Mubarak from power last week opens an opportunity to position the Egyptian "revolution" as a soft power showcase.sun-sentinel. B. it's the Egypt case that stands front-and-center now. As disliked as Mubarak became. The United States has overwhelming military capabilities and wealth in comparison to other states or likely potential alliances. Egypt could be the watershed for an Obama doctrine of soft power. the benefits that stem from it are not. Christopher Layne warned of these dangers of primacy and called for retrenchment. textbook models don't exist. In the aftermath of Mubarak's resignation.
in part because they shoulder some of its burdens. Whether they are terrorists. retrenchment will make the United States less secure than the present grand strategy of primacy. but New Delhi is friendly to Washington. Allies are a great asset to the United States. Of course. U. A remarkable fact about international politics today--in a world where American primacy is clearly and unambiguously on display--is that countries want to align themselves with the United States. one of which is America's ability to create coalitions of like-minded states to free Kosovo. In contrast. including asymmetric strategies such as targeting communication and intelligence satellites upon which the United States depends. And when enemies must be confronted. this is not out of any sense of altruism. Khan proliferation network are in sharp relief to the typically toothless attempts by the UN to halt proliferation. Indeed. countries like India. does not mean that others will respect American wishes to retreat. primacy--and the bandwagoning effect--has also given are the "Gang of Five": China. on-the-ground presence that cannot be achieved by offshore balancing. Cuba. the world's airspace and outer space--allowing the United States to project its power far from its borders. China is clearly the most important of these states because it is a rising great power. They so many allies. thus abandoning its commitments or making unconvincing half-pledges to defend its interests and allies.2 This is not an advantage that should be relinquished lightly. The same is true of the anarchic world of international politics. for example. 84 are allied with America--their security is tied to the United States through treaties and other informal arrangements--and they include almost all of the major economic and military powers. In the anarchic world of the animal kingdom. This is because threats will exist no matter what role America chooses to play in international politics. invade Iraq or to stop proliferation through the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI ). But China may not be confident those strategies would work. Iran. do not agree with all policy choices made by the United States. or to gain greater influence.S. Cuba--it is an anti-U. a strategy based on primacy focuses on engaging enemies overseas. Simply by declaring that the United States is "going home". China proclaims that it will. primacy creates. then the conventional and strategic military power of the United States is what protects the country from such threats. while denying those common avenues to its enemies. The quiet effectiveness of the PSI in dismantling Libya's WMD programs and unraveling the A. if necessary. As a consequence.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. Only the "Gang of Five" may be expected to consistently resist the agenda and actions of the United States.S. allowing the United States to shape the behavior of states and international institutions. where it can be stymied by opponents. in most cases. To make such a declaration implies weakness and emboldens aggression.S. predators prefer to eat the weak rather than confront the strong. had us extensive influence in international politics. But even Beijing is intimidated by the United States and refrains from openly challenging U. regime that is the source of . but because doing so allows them to use the power of the United States for their own purposes--their own protection. and the robustness of the United States' conventional and strategic deterrent capabilities is increased. as we shall see. That is a ratio of almost 17 to one (85 to five). and so it is likely to refrain from testing the United States directly for the foreseeable future because China's power benefits.8 to one of states aligned with the United States versus the Soviet Union. from the international order U. as Barry Posen has noted. This requires a physical. The other states are far weaker than China. at present. and a big change from the Cold War when the ratio was about 1. If there is no diplomatic solution to the threats that confront the United States. such as toward Iran. power. that the global trade and monetary regimes flourish and that Washington's worldwide network of allies is reassured and protected. These interests include ensuring that critical resources like oil flow around the world. a strategy based on retrenchment will not be able to achieve these fundamental objectives of the United States. Never before in its history has this country. a key tenet of the Bush Doctrine is to attack terrorists far from America's shores and not to wait while they use bases in other countries to plan and train for attacks against the United States itself. Of course. commands the "global commons"--the oceans. and it cannot hide from threats. North Korea and Venezuela. U. American-led wars in Kosovo. Washington cannot call a "time out". You can count with one hand countries opposed to the United States. primacy is secured because America. For three of the "Gang of Five" cases--Venezuela. homeland and American global interests. history shows that threats must be confronted. Iran. Indeed. resort to other mechanisms of challenging the United States. away from American soil. the costs of power projection for the United States and its allies are reduced.S. it is no surprise to see NATO in Afghanistan or the Australians in East Timor. Doing so allows the United States to operate with allies outside of the UN.com 71/148 Thursday File American primacy takes as its starting point the protection of the U. Indeed. Thus. Of 192 countries. Q. or any country. Afghanistan and Iraq stand in contrast to the UN's inability to save the people of Darfur or even to conduct any military campaign to realize the goals of its charter. Such influence comes in many forms. rogue states or rising powers.S.S. stabilize Afghanistan.
This is not because democracies do not have clashing interests. Lal now recognizes that the only way to bring relief to desperately poor countries of the Third World is through the adoption of free market economic policies and globalization.com Thursday File the problem. Washington fostered democratic governments in Europe. their people would be better off. a robust monetary regime. diplomat and researcher at the World Bank.5 million Afghans. As country and western great Ral Donner sang: "You don't know what you've got (until you lose it). Everything we think of when we consider the current international order--free trade. 40 percent of them women. In that they are dead wrong and need to be reminded of one of history's most significant lessons: Appalling things happen when international orders collapse. the likelihood of any type of conflict is significantly reduced. By all accounts. The economic stability and prosperity that stems from this economic order is a global public good from which all states benefit. more transparent and more likely to want to resolve things amicably in concurrence with U. but a Pax Americana does reduce war's likelihood. South Korea and Japan. helping to ensure military prowess. The United States created this network not out of altruism but for the benefit and the economic well-being of America. respect for international property rights. it is important to note what those good things are. Of course. such as in Darfur. primacy. liberal democracies are more likely to align with the United States and be sympathetic to the American worldview. Britain or the United States today. Doing so is a source of much good for the countries concerned as well as the United States because. leadership reduced friction among many states that were historical antagonists. Indonesia and Australia. This is not to say it fulfills Woodrow Wilson's vision of ending all war. The United States has brought democracy to Afghanistan. once states are governed democratically. democratic states are good for their citizens as well as for advancing the interests of the United In addition. where 8. This economic order forces American industries to be competitive. power. one gathers from the argument. Asia and the Caucasus. peace and stability have been great benefits of an era where there was a dominant power--Rome. the liberal order created by the United States will end just as assuredly.S. Israel and Egypt. particularly war's worst form: great power wars. Morocco.S. Third. in general. particularly the poorest states in the Third World. along with the growth in the the United States has labored to create an economically liberal worldwide network characterized by free trade and commerce. a former Indian foreign service number of democratic states around the world has been the growth of the global economy. maximizes efficiencies and growth. growing democratization--is directly linked to U. Cross-X. spreading democracy helps maintain U. but democratic progress has been made in Algeria. Indeed.S. Second. power. Lebanon." Consequently. They may not yet look like Western-style democracies. a change of regime in Caracas. Retrenchment proponents seem to think that the current system can be maintained without the current amount of U. Kuwait. Critics have faulted the Bush Administration for attempting to spread democracy in the Middle East. The Dark Ages followed Rome's collapse. The first has been a more peaceful world. who started his career confident in the socialist ideology of post-independence India. States. Today. power behind it.4 As a witness to the failed alternative . voted in a critical October 2004 election.S. Indeed they do. Wars still occur where Washington's interests are not seriously threatened. Abandoning the positions of his youth. and. Without U. During the Cold War. increasing respect for human rights. Perhaps democratic Arab states would be more opposed to Israel. in Iraq in January 2005. and mobility of capital and labor markets. American primacy within the international system causes many positive outcomes for Washington and the world. Rather. American power gives the United States the ability to spread democracy and other elements of its ideology of liberalism. and benefits defense as well because the size of the economy makes the defense burden manageable. whether democracy in the Middle East will have a peaceful or of tilting at windmills. With its allies.S. it is because they are more open. leadership. but nonetheless. should not even be attempted. American primacy helps keep a number of complicated relationships aligned--between Greece and Turkey. Latin America.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 72/148 relations. even though remnant Taliban forces threatened them. Iraq. Hitler succeeded the order established at Versailles. U. Perhaps the greatest testament to the benefits of the economic network comes from Deepak Lal. Economic spin-offs foster the development of military technology. The first free elections were held It was the military power of the United States that put Iraq on the path to democracy. the Palestinian Authority and Egypt. India and Pakistan. In addition to ensuring the security of the United States and its allies. which are facilitated through American primacy. most notably France and West Germany.3 So. labeling such an effort a modern form It is the obligation of Bush's critics to explain why democracy is good enough for Western states but not for the rest. the country itself is not intrinsically anti-American.S. stabilizing influence on America's interests in the short run is open to question. as John Owen noted on these pages in the Spring 2006 issue. the march of democracy has been impressive. Scholars and statesmen have long recognized the irenic effect of power on the anarchic world of international politics. Now even the Middle East is increasingly democratic. Tehran or Havana could very well reorient THROUGHOUT HISTORY. And so.
Fourth and the United States. Whenever there is a natural disaster. UN peacekeeping operations depend on the United States to supply UN forces. Washington followed up with a large contribution of aid and deployed the U. flood. de facto. Two years after the disaster. military is the earth's "911 force"--it serves. soldiers. has been willing to use its power not only to advance its interests but to promote the welfare of people all over the globe. the U. as one might expect from those witnessing the munificence of the United States. Indeed. it left a lasting impression about America.S. military responded immediately. medical aid. food. airmen and marines responded by providing water.S.S. Cross-X.S. As the War on Terror is a war of ideas and opinion as much as military action. drought. earthquake. military to South and Southeast Asia for many months to help with the aftermath of the disaster. On the day after Christmas in 2004. killing about 74. Whether in Indonesia or Kashmir.S. volcanic eruption. sailors. For the first time since 9/11. Only the U.S. after it. military has participated in over fifty operations since the end of the Cold War--and most of those missions have been humanitarian in nature. military conducting a humanitarian mission. 80 percent of Indonesian public opinion was opposed to the United States. To help those in need. the United States assists the countries in need. The U. . the global paramedic and the planet's fire department.000 people and leaving three million homeless. 80 percent had a favorable opinion of America. because it helped people in the wake of disasters. No other force possesses the communications capabilities or global logistical reach of the U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 73/148 finally. diverting helicopters fighting the War on Terror in nearby Afghanistan to bring relief as soon as possible.S. military.com Thursday File economic systems. an enormous earthquake struck Kashmir. In fact. while support for Al-Qaeda dropped to its lowest level. About 20. The United States was the first to respond with aid. typhoon or tsunami. and. for the United States humanitarian missions are the equivalent of a blitzkrieg.000 U. military could have accomplished this Herculean effort. a tremendous earthquake and tsunami occurred in the Indian Ocean near Sumatra.000 people. disease treatment and prevention as well as forensic assistance to help identify the bodies of those killed. there is a clearly positive impact on Muslim opinion of the United States. the United States also provided financial aid to Pakistan. in seeking primacy.S. In October 2005. American generosity has done more to help the United States fight the War on Terror than almost any other measure. killing some 300. Lal is one of the strongest academic proponents of American primacy due to the economic prosperity it provides. Indonesians still have overwhelmingly positive views of the United States. as the world's police. the money was well-spent When people in the Muslim world witness the U. Before the tsunami. and in poll after poll. The U. but it also had a real impact on the War on Terror. polls of Pakistani opinion have found that more people are favorable toward the United States than unfavorable. The United States is the earth's leading source of positive externalities for the world.
It owns Al Jazeera. the contours of the U.cfm?uuid=EC73B7BB-6C56-41A0-8F05-AD2986A02AE3) CJC President Hosni Mubarak’s speech Tuesday is unlikely to assuage the hundreds of thousands of Egyptians gathered in Cairo’s Tahrir Square. A. It is spearheading a free trade zone encompassing Turkey. intelligence agencies. the Muslim Brotherhood is likely to gain influence if free For decades.com/wpdyn/content/article/2011/02/12/AR2011021203581. ***Terrorism Shell*** .-Egyptian counterterrorism work”. “Winning the future in a new Mideast”. and an important model of Islamist democracy to the Arab world. 2011. Once reviled by many in the West as a supporter of Al Qaeda. a bridge to Europe.S. a staunch American ally. The unprecedented popular demonstrations Egyptian that already expelled one Arab leader in Tunisia and may well be on the verge of unseating another regime in Egypt mark a watershed in the region from which there is no return. and Yemen reflect tectonic regional shifts that U. Rather. Institute of Peace.S. This seminal moment in the Middle East demands that the United States be bold and innovative rather than relying on a reflexive response to the changes—both dramatic and subtle—that are now re-shaping that region. Turkey has also exerted its influence to promote regional trade and investment.com Thursday File Ext .S. Washington Post Staff Writers. the network is now being celebrated for insuring that the world can watch Egyptians make history. Qatar has also played a key mediating role – helping to bring together Lebanon’s fractious factions in May 2008 when the country appeared on the verge of another civil war. The dynamics now spawning protests in Algeria. Yet. February 1.S. These rolling popular protests are the most dramatic examples of the region’s changing tides. sharing information on extremist groups such as al-Qaeda and working hand in glove on counterterrorism operations. Washington Post – 2/13 (Mary Beth Sheridan and Joby Warrick. Jordan. Washington is facing a new reality in the Arab world. A regional re- alignment is shifting the contours of power and influence from the Levant to the Gulf. http://www. policymakers must grasp if the United States is to exert influence and remain relevant in this “new” Middle East. With the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak. Lebanon. signals a new era in regional relations. the Arabic language satellite network that has broadcast from Egypt for the past eight days.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 74/148 Cross-X. The small Arab sheikhdom of Qatar is also exerting disproportionate influence.washingtonpost.-Egyptian relationship may well be redrawn. and Jordan that could help spur badly-needed economic growth and job creation. Continuing partnership with Egypt is critical to counterterrorism operations globally. Muslim Brotherhood takeover would close that Intel window. In particular. Analysts say a more democratic Egyptian government will have to be responsive to a public that may oppose such special and close ties with Washington. Turkey’s role as a key arbiter among Middle East players. President Barack Obama’s call to the “win the future” in his State of the Union address resonates deeply regarding America’s role in the Middle East. Their demands are not the “bread and butter” issues that typify Arab world street protests. Instead. Indeed. and possibly positioned to reprise this role as Lebanon once again contends with mounting tensions.politico. The stakes are nothing less than the future of American leadership in the region. demanding an end to his regime.Leadership US effective response to Egypt is critical to maintaining regional ties in the Middle East critical to its leadership. the United States must recognize this shifting regional alignment if it is to leverage any of these changes to its advantage.html?hpid=topnews) CJC Egypt's government has been a critical partner for U. Other trends are not as positive from an U. These protests are remarkable. February 13. Moreover.S. They provide critical intelligence for our success to prevent attacks. 2011. these are pleas for greater freedoms. “Mubarak resignation throws into question U. vantage point – namely the ascendance of the militant Shiite group Hezbollah in Lebanon accompanied by Syria’s resurgence there from the nadir of its influence in 2005. Now the future of that cooperation is in question. not least because of the impassioned calls for dignity and respect by people whose governments have long treated them with contempt. http://dyn. Syria. an end to torture and repression and for legitimate governments that can represent their aspirations.S. Yacoubian – 2/1 (Mona Yacoubian is senior adviser to the Center for Conflict Management at the U.com/printstory.
2001. The internationalization and brutalization of current and future terrorism make it clear we have entered an Age of Super Terrorism [e. Islamic Jihad] and secular entities [such as Fatah's Tanzim and Aqsa Martyr Brigades]] wish not only to resolve national grievances [such as Jewish settlements. in violation of fundamental human rights of the noncombatant segment of societies. double standards of morality. Likewise. recruitment.. therefore. Thus. operational command and control] will only increase terrorism. Jacob) the international community failed. there is the danger it will paralyze governments and thereby The prudent application of force has been demonstrated to be an effective tool for short. The first illusion is that terrorism can be greatly reduced.S. & Director @ Inter-University for Terrorism Studies. victory however long and hard the road may be: For without victory. government that follows the rule of the Caliphs. "How will cooperation with the United States on counterterrorism develop in the view of these new constraints? I would argue the space will contract. The Islamist group has renounced violence but is openly hostile to Israel and may call for more independence from U. Hamas. radiological. weapons.a top Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip who was directly responsible for several suicide bombings including the latest bus attack in Jerusalem disrupted potential terrorist operations. regional and global security concerns. The impact is extinction. B.political. such as lack of a universal definition of terrorism. the Hebron commander of the Islamic Jihad. Palestinians religious movements [e. defused a "ticking bomb.g. but its stated objective is to "unite all Muslims and establish a The second myth is that strong action against terrorist infrastructure [leaders. In sum. Even the United States and Israel have for decades tended to regard Last week's brutal suicide bombings in Baghdad and Jerusalem have once again illustrated dramatically that terrorism as a mere tactical nuisance or irritant rather than a critical strategic challenge to their national security concerns. if this perception continues to prevail. analysts say. military operation in Iraq eliminated Saddam Hussein's regime as a state sponsor of terror. Prof. Similarly. if not eliminated completely. Israel and its citizens.S. Jerusalem] but primarily to destroy the Jewish state. social and economic . despite the collapse of the Oslo Agreements of 1993 and numerous acts of terrorism triggered by the second intifada that began almost three years ago." said Aaron David Miller.are addressed. Unlike their historical counterparts. victory in spite of terror. thus far at least. and the exploitation of the media by terrorist propaganda and psychological warfare. a former State Department Middle East expert who is now at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Two myths in particular must be debunked immediately if an effective counterterrorism "best practices" strategy can be developed [e. particularly in democratic societies. right of return. Israel's targeted killing of Mohammed Sider. that on September 11. past experience provides useful lessons for a realistic future strategy. the U. propaganda.g. to understand the magnitude and implications of the terrorist threats to the very survival of civilization itself.." should be tolerated if not glorified. Similarly.g. funding. The conventional illusion is that terrorism must be justified by oppressed people seeking to achieve their goals and consequently the argument advanced by "freedom fighters" anywhere. For instance.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 75/148 Cross-X." encourage further terrorist attacks. provided the root causes of conflicts . “Terrorism Myths and Realities”. 1940: "Victory at all costs. . as well as scores of other countries affected by the universal nightmare of modern terrorism surprised by new terrorist "surprises"? There are many reasons. Lexis. Why are the United States and Israel. Osama bin Laden's international network not only opposes the presence of American military in the Arabian Peninsula and Iraq. Alexander ‘03 (Yonah-. training. Washington Times. including misunderstanding of the manifold specific factors that contribute to terrorism's expansion. Americans were stunned by the unprecedented tragedy of 19 al Qaeda terrorists striking a devastating blow at the center of the nation's commercial and military powers. The argument here is that law-enforcement efforts and military retaliation inevitably will fuel more brutal acts of violent revenge. contemporary terrorists have introduced a new scale of violence in terms of conventional and unconventional threats and impact.com Thursday File and fair elections are held. August 28." The assassination of Ismail Abu Shanab . "give me liberty and I will give you death. it behooves those countries victimized by terrorism to understand a cardinal message communicated by Winston Churchill to the House of Commons on May 13. This traditional rationalization of "sacred" violence often conceals that the real purpose of terrorist groups is to gain political power through the barrel of the gun. It is not surprising. strengthening international cooperation]. For example. there is no survival. the religionization of politics." Clearly. weak punishment of terrorists. nuclear and cyber] with its serious implications concerning national. policies. biological. are still "shocked" by each suicide attack at a time of intensive diplomatic efforts to revive the moribund peace process through the now revoked cease-fire arrangements [hudna]. chemical.and long-term deterrence of terrorism.
com Thursday File Egypt Intel = Best There is no other country that can replace Egypt’s intelligence system. “Mubarak resignation throws into question U. And Egypt served as a counterweight to Iran. Mubarak's government played an important role in containing the Palestinian group Hamas. the United States had a window into the Soviet Union through Iran. ally. The Egyptian General Intelligence Service "has the reputation of being one of the best-informed intelligence agencies on Islamist fundamentalism and its international dimensions. In the region. Human rights groups have denounced the practice because of the notorious torture record of those nations' security services. by blocking the smuggling of arms and militants into Gaza and supporting Israel's blockade of the strip.S. then a strong U. Egypt's security services have worked closely on operations with their U. "We have the same kind of window into Iran and other countries via the Egyptians. 11. noted that during the Cold War. such as Gaza and Sudan. "Whatever happens next.html?hpid=topnews) CJC Egypt's intelligence cooperation is extensive. Bruce Hoffman. according to analysts." In addition to passing on intelligence.-Egyptian counterterrorism work”. The cooperation became public after revelations surfaced that U. attacks. Washington Post Staff Writers." according to Jane's intelligence information service.com/wpdyn/content/article/2011/02/12/AR2011021203581. Washington Post – 2/13 (Mary Beth Sheridan and Joby Warrick.S. 2001. Its security services have numerous sources in places where the U. Hoffman said the use of rendition has been on the decline.washingtonpost. February 13. counterparts. "A different government in Cairo may not see Iran as quite the same kind of threat. Radical takeover means the US is fighting blind. a terrorism expert at Georgetown University. they are the best. since the United States and many governments no longer wanted to be associated with it. Hoffman said. Or they might just look for ways to use Iran as a foreign-policy lever" in their relationship with the West. 2011.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 76/148 Cross-X. this will never be the same." he said. And the Egyptians have built up a trove of information on al-Qaeda and other radical Islamist groups in the Middle East. government does not.S.S. particularly since the Sept. . however. officials secretly "rendered" terrorism suspects to countries such as Egypt for interrogation.S. http://www.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 77/148 Cross-X. http://www. Foreign Policy”.” said Juan Zarate of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. leaked cables about Egypt illustrate a complex relationship of subtle shifts between coddling and arm-twisting. Republican leaders backed up that assessment.has complicated the administration's response to the popular uprising in Egypt." said Marina Ottaway.especially as practiced in the Middle East -. For the United States. as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell refused to criticize how the administration was handling the crisis. Or perhaps not. Political Analyst for Politics Daily. the administration has done a good job of reacting. "We have closed our eyes to Mubarak because he has been useful to us in other ways. Stone – 1/31 (Andrea Stone. who was a top counterterrorism official during George W.” he said. With the popular revolts in Egypt and Yemen — and a government already deposed in Tunisia — American counterterrorism officials are concerned that radical factions in those countries could find a new foothold amid the chaos.and appears to be doing behind the scenes -. and officials and outside experts said that losing Mr.com/2011/01/31/egyptian-crisis-biggest-foreign-test-yet-for-obamaadministratio/) CJC Officials were "a little bit flustered at first" by the protests -. The dual nature of diplomacy -. 2011. “Egyptian Crisis Biggest Foreign Test Yet for Obama Administration”. that does huge damage to the Al Qaeda narrative. Just as WikiLeaks has been credited with setting off the revolution in Tunisia. http://www. Bush’s administration. The same realpolitik has been in play in the relation with Yemen. an expert on Arab politics at George Washington University. MARK LANDLER and MARK MAZZETTI. February 2. NY Times – 2/2 (HELENE COOPER. director of the Middle East program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace." said Nathan Brown.is communicate "the hopelessness of the situation to President Mubarak. Mubarak or President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen would deal a short-term blow to its counterterrorism campaign. The best the White House can do -.com Thursday File Egypt – Counterterrorism Radicalization in Egypt would undermine US counterterrorism efforts.S.politicsdaily. pluralistic transition. A peaceful solution undermines Al Qaeda’s narrative. 1/31/2011. “Sudden Split Recasts U. .com/2011/02/03/world/middleeast/03diplomacy. The United States is heavily reliant on foreign partners.but Boston University international relations professor Richard Augustus Norton said overall. Effective diplomacy in Egypt is critical to a peaceful resolution of the crisis that renews our diplomatic credibility which is critical to fighting terrorism. That narrative holds that authoritarian proAmerican governments should be deposed by violent jihad. Algeria and other dictatorial regimes in the region that the United States has taken it easy on in order to secure help for fighting terrorism. “If the street protests lead to a peaceful. “There’s part of this that’s dangerous to Al Qaeda.nytimes.html?_r=1&hp) CJC the unfolding crisis is about much more than just a rift with an ally.Vice President Joe Biden told the PBS News Hour that Mubarak is not a dictator -.
“ Obama slams Iran government and praises Egypt army”.com/article/2011/02/15/us-egypt-iran-obama-idUSTRE71E4IG20110215? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Anti-government demonstrations also simmered Tuesday in Yemen and Bahrain. 2011." Obama said. as the Egyptian military had done." But seizing the chance to put Iran. Reuters – 2/15 (Matt Spetalnick and Patricia Zengerle.reuters. 'Let's look at Egypt's example. allies with longtime autocratic rulers. "Obviously." Obama said. two key U. Staff Writers.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 78/148 Cross-X. you've got to get out ahead of change. a longtime U. "We have sent a strong message to our allies in the region saying. http://www. . you can't be behind the curve.com Thursday File Yemen Spillover Spillover is happening in Yemen. on the spot. he urged all governments in the region to deal peacefully with protests.S. Feb 15. a critical US ally. as opposed to Iran's example'. "If you're governing these countries. we're concerned about stability throughout the region. foe.S. as the pro-democracy fervor that toppled Mubarak rippled across the Middle East.
The match that lights the flame may well be last Thursday's assassination of Lebanese MP Antoine Ghanem. Protests have been seen in recent days in Algeria. If anything. “Will Egypt's Revolution Spark Domino Effect?”.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 79/148 Cross-X. Yemen.com. CBS News – 2/14 (Genevieve Kermani. Bahrain and Iran. Shadi and what I think people are saying is if it first happened in Tunisia. The killing has been widely condemned by the international community and the finger pointed.html THE torturous road to peace in the Middle East becomes more excruciating every day and the cumulative effect of events in the region over the past week offer little hope for any reduction in what appear to be increasingly flammable tensions. Iran. the al-Qaeda sanctuary is ground zero in the U.com/8301-503544_162-20031888503544.theage. As Plante noted. “Egyptian Crisis Biggest Foreign Test Yet for Obama Administration”. especially if an anti-Syrian candidate is elected. Jordan could be next. 2011. His death was the latest in a string of attacks against prominent critics of Lebanon's neighbour and former powerbroker Syria." B. and by implication its ally. Hamid added that the United States should try to adapt its foreign policy accordingly. "Some [countries] are trying essentially to bribe their citizens. especially Yemen. fear the revolution that began in Tunisia could target them next. 2001.com Thursday File Spillover -> Yemen = Terrorism Preventing spillover from Egypt is critical to keeping terrorist hotspots from collapsing like Yemen." Hamid pointed to the "end of this so-called stability-paradigm. More importantly." he said. "Yemen could be next.au/news/editorial/tempers-must-remain-cool-as-the-middle-east-heatsup/2007/09/23/1190486129857.html) CJC Hamid of the Brookings Doha Center said on "Washington Unplugged" Monday that the revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia could spark similar outcomes throughout the Middle East. At the same time. Mr Ghanem's death introduces an unwelcome element of instability ahead of tomorrow's crucial presidential elections. fight against terrorism. http://www. once again. "We're seeing protests emerge everywhere. Stone – 1/31 (Andrea Stone. Middle East is powder keg. though Hosni Mubarak is no longer the president of Egypt. why can't it happen elsewhere?" Hamid told CBS News senior White House correspondent Bill Plante. Already a basket case before recent street protests. any conflict will spillover The Age 9/24/2007 “Tempers must remain cool as the Middle East heats up”. the White House and diplomats at the State Department have struggled to keep up with developments. the talk now is of war. people are drawing inspirations from the Egyptian model. the most notable being the 2005 killing of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri. As arguably A. any instability could fan the flames of civil war in a country that has been a pivotal test-run for democracy in the region since September 11. protesters remain on the streets in that country in an effort to remind the military "who's in charge of Egypt's revolution. Jordan. http://www." he said. http://www. and now that it's happened in Egypt.cbsnews. "We're seeing protests all throughout the region. among others.com/2011/01/31/egyptian-crisis-biggest-foreign-test-yet-for-obamaadministratio/) CJC the most serious foreign policy crisis of the Obama administration unfolded at breakneck speed in the streets of Cairo and other Egyptian cities. 1/31/2011. at Syria. Those in Saudi Arabia. they have kept an eye out for trouble in nearby countries. Yemen and Jordan." stating that countries throughout the Middle East are suddenly taking new approaches to respond to their citizens' needs. February 14. a violent murder that pitched his divided nation further into turmoil.politicsdaily. It's really hard to tell. Syria ***Instability Shell*** . National security officials huddled with Egypt experts in the White House while the president spoke by phone to leaders in the region. Continued Egyptian protests are sparking a wave of uprising across the Middle East diplomacy will be critical to keep stability. Staff Writer CBS News. Political Analyst for Politics Daily.S. as we've seen in Kuwait.
Democracies and free markets are spreading. Another suggestion is that the target was Iranian weapons destined for Lebanon's Hezbollah. as it has with the other high-profile assassinations of anti-Syrian leaders in Lebanon. there is more mileage in diplomacy than in any military solution. such as the murder of a Lebanese MP. . C. every event. Meanwhile. every tension. Regional Conflicts Draw in the US and go Nuclear Jonathan Dean (Advisor on International Security Issues) 5/4/95 Union of Concerned Scientists We do not want this kind of world. and they pay in increased domestic frictions for the waves of migrants and refugees loosed by conflict. somewhat ingenuously. have dangerous consequences for the region as a whole. have done in Germany. protracted regional violence creates conditions and motivation for developing nuclear weapons which can directly threaten our security. Their expansion is the best general guarantee for peace. the United States and other industrial countries pay for these conflicts by losing their investments and their trade in goods and services. Talk of war further intensified after the deputy commander of Iran's air force. which he threatened to use on American targets in the Middle East. In the long run. Mohamed ElBaradei. a move UN officials described as an "out of control" drift to war. The Middle East is now overheated and potentially explosive. Iran's only Arab ally. in a part of the world where every action can easily be met with a disproportionate reaction. and this should be carried out with haste. Calls have been made for UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to launch an international probe into the bombing. This pointed admonition coincides with a string of reports emanating from Washington that the Bush Administration is running out of patience with diplomacy and is intensifying its plans for air strikes against Iran. denied any involvement. The events in Lebanon and the debate over Iran run parallel with Israel's declaration of the Gaza Strip as "hostile territory" and Israeli opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu's confirmation that two weeks ago Israel carried out an air attack deep inside Syria. There has also been speculation that the raid served as a "dry run" for a possible Israeli or US attack on Iran. more so since the Iraq war. quickly entered the fray and warned against the use of force against Iran. Beyond this. The French also added fuel to the fire when Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner warned the world to "prepare for the worst and the worst is war". with its arson murders by extremists. But democracies and free markets cannot flourish in an increasingly interknit world unless there is some modicum of order. This war of words was further escalated when a senior commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard chose to outline the capability of his country's ballistic missiles.com Thursday File has. announced that Iran had already prepared a plan to attack Israel if it bombed his country. planned for November. The head of the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency. US efforts to ensure the success of a Middle East peace conference. We cannot afford it. on a site that it believed was being equipped for nuclear development by North Korea. General Mohammad Alavi. is connected to another. and it is this very mutuality that can make one act. In the Middle East. remain mired in political haggling over what is to be brought to the negotiating table. Beyond the loss of life and productive capability in armed conflict. unrestrained regional conflicts can become conflicts which can draw in the United States and other major powers. as its clandestine nuclear arms program. These threats coincide with growing international pressure on Iran to abandon what is regarded by the West.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 80/148 Cross-X. and particularly by the US. including hundreds of thousands of refugees from the Balkans. and Australia must impress upon its allies that. They pay most of the costs for humanitarian relief and rehabilitation. Look at what excessive rates of migration.
au/news/opinion/high-stakes-in-the-square/story-e6frg71x1225999765488) CJC EGYPT'S transition will determine stability in the region. have spilled into the street. The Egyptian President is insisting that while he will step down in September. 2011. with a caretaker government working towards change. It is an uprising that appears to have taken by surprise everyone from the White House to the man being touted as the most likely transitional leader. In the middle are the protesters in the square who. The cry is for democracy: the risk is to the stability that has defined Egypt for decades. But the past few days have shown that acceptance by Egyptians of the trade-off between rights and stability can no longer be assumed. The lack of an organised political opposition in Egypt has become apparent in recent days.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 81/148 Cross-X. but of the Middle East. and meanwhile he intends to oversee the transition to a new leader.com Thursday File Ext – Instability Egypt instability threatens Middle East instability. A combination of economic woes and mass unemployment.theaustralian. That need for stability has driven the West's approach to Mr Mubarak's 30 years in power. along with dissatisfaction with a long-term autocratic leader. . The Australian – 2/4 (“High stakes in the square”. the mood for change cannot be ignored. The stakes are high. The stability of the 80-million-strong nation and of the region is in play as protesters clash with progovernment supporters in Tahrir Square. and however weak the civil society. Nobel Peace Prize winner Mohamed ElBaradei. The extraordinary battle being played out in the centre of Cairo will decide the future not just of Egypt. it remains far from certain whether either Hosni Mubarak or Barack Obama will be able to deliver a sustainable outcome.com. yet a week after the uprising began. the US President is signalling he must leave before that. http://www. February 04. are refusing to leave until Mr Mubarak surrenders office. He has been the strongman of the Middle East. whose ability to balance domestic demands and regional imperatives has made his nation a secular bulwark against fundamentalist Islam and the West's strongest Arab ally. but however ad hoc these protests. against the odds and despite the violence.
Wall Street Journal – 2/16 (Joe Parkinson. Iranian protesters and aimed tough words at Tehran on Tuesday. Jordan and elsewhere. FEBRUARY 16. The White House is trying to balance its desire to encourage what President Barack Obama called Tuesday "certain universal values" with U. Adam Entous. . Later. though the president was questioned about both during a news conference. as fast-moving uprisings have unseated regimes in Tunisia and Egypt and triggered opposition rallies in Algeria. Neither leader spoke Tuesday about the movements in Bahrain and Yemen. and the first to pit a Shiite Muslim majority against Sunni rulers—heightening the dilemma for the U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 82/148 Cross-X. which hosts the headquarters for the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet patrolling the Gulf. Mr. sharpened the difficulty for the Obama administration." he added.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0#) CJC Bahrain—The Middle East's wave of popular revolts helped spur the largest street rebellion in years in a Persian Gulf monarchy.com/article/SB10001424052748704409004576145711833269124. Reporters for the Wall Street Journal. fought back protesters for a fifth day. the government threatened leaders of Monday's protests there with execution and made a fresh wave of arrests. The developments came as security forces in Yemen. The parallel protests against key allies and enemies of the U. in marked contrast to their relative silence on Iran during the last wave of protests in Iran in 2009. "We also call on all parties to..S. http://online.wsj. “Wave of Unrest Rolls Into Gulf”. Obama praised the courage of protesters and said the Iranian regime was "pretending" to celebrate Egypt's revolt while "gunning down and beating people who were trying to express themselves peacefully" at home..S. 2011. as it struggles to pursue its interests in the region. antiterrorism efforts.S. strategic interests.S. In Iran. The funeral of a demonstrator here Tuesday swelled into growing clashes with security forces amid the gleaming new skyscrapers of this financial capital. is "very concerned" about the violence and is urging the regime to investigate protester deaths as quickly as possible. and Julian Barnes. an important ally in U.com Thursday File ME Diplomacy – Bahrain & Yemen Uprisings in Bahrain and Yemen have US diplomats on their toes to balance strategic interests. State Department spokesman Philip Crowley put out a statement saying the U.refrain from violence.S. The president and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton both offered encouragement to MANAMA.
Wall Street Journal – 2/16 (Joe Parkinson. Yemen is under threat of collapsing. The funding. Yemen is the home to al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.S. The group has claimed responsibility for a failed Christmas Day attack in 2009 aboard a U. a U. and critical economic assistance to stabilize the country. and development challenges" pose the greatest threat to that poor Arab nation since its 1994 civil war. head of the National Counterterrorism Center. U. which has yet to be approved by Congress. has faced growing protests in recent weeks from thousands of Yemenis.S. Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 83/148 Cross-X. The request includes $35 million in additional military assistance for Yemen and $69 million in economic assistance. The funds are unrelated to another $120 million earmarked for Yemen in President Barack Obama's 2012 budget request unveiled on Monday. The money would assist counter-terrorism efforts against AQAP which is the biggest threat of terrorist attacks. airliner and a more recent attempt last year to blow up two U. speaking on condition of anonymity. or AQAP. A.S. Staff Reporter. FEBRUARY 16. in power for 30 years.com/article/SB10001424052748704409004576145711833269124. the official told Reuters. Those operations include training commandos and conducting counter-terrorism strikes. Adam Entous. inspired by uprisings that toppled Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak and Tunisia's President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali. ***Bahrain Shell*** . “Wave of Unrest Rolls Into Gulf”. He is also under pressure to quash the resurgent al Qaeda wing in the impoverished Arabian Peninsula state. Feb 14. http://www. Wall Street Journal – 2/16 (Joe Parkinson. The U.S. Reuters – 2/14 (Phil Stewart. told Congress last week he saw AQAP as the biggest current threat to the U. Adam Entous.com/article/2011/02/14/us-usa-yemenidUSTRE71D7AQ20110214? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC The United States aims to spend $75 million to double the size of a special Yemeni counterterrorism unit. Reporters for the Wall Street Journal.S. is part of a broader effort to increase pressure on al Qaeda's Yemen-based affiliate. This is separate from his budget. http://online. official said on Monday. 2011. Stable Yemen government. U.S. 2011. at the same time as he struggles to control southern secessionists and to cement a fragile truce with rebels in the north. Reporters for the Wall Street Journal. to spend $75 million on new Yemen military training”.reuters.wsj.com Thursday File Yemen Counter Terrorism Obama is pushing to double support for counter-terrorism efforts in Yemen to fight al Qaeda.S. and Julian Barnes. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper told Congress last week that Yemen's "myriad political. al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. FEBRUARY 16. and Julian Barnes. official said the funds would be invested in a special Yemeni counter- terrorism unit that is operated under Yemen's interior ministry and now totals around 300 people.S. security. Diplomats are working for a solution to ensure that Bahrain allows political reforms and to quell the uprising. “U. 2011. operations in the country could be hamstrung. and officials say a collapse of the weak government could give the group free rein. homeland. Michael Leiter. would gut US counter-terrorism efforts globally and allow the fast spread of al Qaeda.S. officials believe if the current government fell in Yemen. “Wave of Unrest Rolls Into Gulf”.-bound cargo planes with toner cartridges packed with explosives.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0#) CJC Some U.
5th Fleet is critical to deterring Iranian aggression in the Middle East.navy. “U. allies. cyberspace. While the ruling family still holds nearabsolute power.S. sometimes violently. joint operations.nwc. with 18 of 40 seats. critical to countering Iran and protect the Persian Gulf. the kingdom has liberalized more than most of its Gulf neighbors. But parliamentarians from the Shiite bloc. Bahrain's Sunni Muslim rulers have long faced a restive Shiite population that alleges economic and political discrimination. Reporters for the Wall Street Journal.com/article/SB10001424052748704409004576145711833269124. forces in Iraq. Adam Entous. Navy's Fifth Fleet make it a critical port for the Navy vessels deployed to counter Iran and protect the Persian Gulf. In addition. “Wave of Unrest Rolls Into Gulf”. Deterrence must include a clear message to Iran that it cannot alter the strategic situation in the region . He is involved in a wide range of issues as part of the institute’s national security program. The split U. a viable Shiite opposition has gained a growing voice in the country's parliament.military deployments in the Persian Gulf is to deter Iran from taking actions deemed inimical to American interests.S. Virginia. where our national security is at stake. Iran’s efforts to develop asymmetric capabilities designed to hold U.S.wsj.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0#) CJC "The goal is to press to reform these governments. interests in a region where a significant chunk of the world's oil is produced and transported each day. Gouré is a vice president with the Lexington Institute.S. Her research focuses on airpower. and other issues within the institute’s national security program.S. Bahrain collapse would result in US losing basing for the Navy’s 5th Fleet. forces and allies in the region at risk or to contest movement in the Gulf must also be considered as potentially destabilizing. 62.wsj. though they have stopped short of trying to remove the ruling family from power. Bahrain's housing of the U. B. ally—to survive by meeting some demands. not remove them. for more political rights over the years." Christopher Boucek. http://www. Likewise. Autumn 2009. support for extremist groups in the region.S. The presence of U. when the administration initially tried to encourage peaceful protests while urging the government of Hosni Mubarak—a longstanding U. Vol. Shiite leaders have pushed.com 84/148 Thursday File http://online. The move robs Bahrain's government of a legitimate political party with which to negotiate a settlement. called Al-Wafaq. where even minor unrest might roil world-wide oil markets. is a visible demonstration of the interest of the United States in the region and of commitment to secure its national interests and defend allies.S. a nonprofit public-policy research organization headquartered in Arlington.S. FEBRUARY 16. and since 1991 in Kuwait. C.S. 2011. The spillover to Gulf States would result in massive oil price spikes.S. Dr. assistance to anti-U. Gouré and Grant – 9 (Dr.com/article/SB10001424052748704409004576145711833269124.mil/getattachment/c866a012-4a28-4627-86f8-38d0b627e710/U-S--NavalOptions-for-Influencing-Iran---Daniel-G) CJC A central focus of U. Rebecca Grant is a senior fellow of the Lexington Institute. No. Another concern is that an uprising in Bahrain could spill into next-door Saudi Arabia or Kuwait. Iran’s actions of principal concern to the United States include its nuclear program. NAVAL OPTIONS FOR INFLUENCING IRAN”. http://online. and efforts to undermine U. a Middle East analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. imperatives also were on display in the Egyptian revolt. If Bahrain's Sunni-led government were to be forced from power—something protesters haven't yet made a focus of their demands— some fear a new government might seek closer ties to Iran and force the U. Naval War College Review. and Julian Barnes. In response. Navy to relocate . in solidarity with the protesters. 4.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0#) CJC the Obama administration fears unrest in Bahrain could undercut U.S.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. Wall Street Journal – 2/16 (Joe Parkinson. American planners must consider the possibility that Iran may threaten to resort to military force should the pressures on Tehran to change its behaviors become intolerable. naval forces in the Gulf. on Tuesday suspended their participation in the body. Although it lacks oil.
By David Bosco. Deterrence theory suggests a number of potential options: preemption/first strike. 7/23/2006.. Consider the following scenarios: • Targeting Iran: As Israeli troops seek out and destroy Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon.com 85/148 Thursday File through the use of force. D. shattered four empires and dragged more than two dozen countries into war. Iranian aggression causes World War 3. It is clear from Israel Shahak that Israel has no interest in peace except that which is dictated on its own terms. retaliation. "the size and sophistication of Israel's nuclear arsenal allows men such as Ariel Sharon to dream of redrawing the map of the Middle East aided by the implicit threat of nuclear force. July 23. The understanding that small but violent acts can spark global conflagration is etched into the world's consciousness.php? p=403&sid=95896c43b66ffa28f9932774a408bb4b] ARMAGEDDON Could This Be the Start of World War III? As the Middle East erupts. Taliban militants are burning schools and attacking villages in southern Afghanistan as the United States and NATO struggle to defend that country's fragile government. Jordan.ca/articles/STE203A.html)] The Israeli nuclear arsenal has profound implications for the future of peace in the Middle East. and indeed.25 The United States. But the events he set in motion could not be so easily restrained. Senior Editor at Foreign Policy Magazine. Iranian sources claim that the Islamic Republic’s navy can close the Gulf. there are plenty of scenarios for global conflagration. is day dreaming. After Iran has recovered from the shock. Nuclear-armed India is still cleaning up the wreckage from a large terrorist attack in which it suspects militants from rival Pakistan. The heart of deterrence and dissuasion is the promise of unacceptable consequences. Europe was at war."(35) General Amnon Shahak-Lipkin. Governments in Syria. needs to conduct its own information campaign. as the world watches the violence in the Middle East. and has absolutely no intention of negotiating in good faith to curtail its nuclear program or discuss seriously a nuclear-free MiddleEast. “Could This Be the Start of World War III?” http://usc. the young Serb nationalist jumped into the shallow river that runs through the city and was quickly seized. Bosco. 2006 [David. The reverberations from Princip's shots in the summer of 1914 ultimately took the lives of more than 10 million people. The Israeli government decides to strike the convoy and Iranian nuclear facilities simultaneously."(37) and Munya Mardoch.org/forums/0016/viewtopic." former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said last week. David Bosco is a senior editor at Foreign Policy magazine. together with its allies.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. either alone or in combination."(34) According to Seymour Hersh. In other words. former Israeli Chief of Staff is quoted "It is never possible to talk to Iraq about no matter what. The recipient of the deterrent/dissuasion message must consider either his fate too painful or his gain too small to justify his current behavior. It may be possible to threaten preemption or retaliation with conventional forces even against a nuclear-armed adversary.globalresearch.-led invasion in 2003. This hot summer. he must be confronted by the likelihood that the opponent will impose unacceptable costs or negate the effects of his actions. Iraq is suffering through one of its bloodiest months since the U.S. But it's not hard to conjure ways that today's hot spots could ignite. Steinback. Revolutionary Guards surging across the border into Iraq."Israel's insistence on the independent use of its nuclear weapons can be seen as the foundation on which Israeli grand strategy rests. Director of the . Global nuclear war. and cooperative activities with allies—that the United States can rapidly defeat Iran’s asymmetric warfare strategy. although the persuasiveness of a nonnuclear response to a nuclear threat is uncertain. guerrilla warfare at sea. and long-range missile technology is spreading like a virus.. After emptying his revolver. Certainly about writing in Haaretz said. "We're in the early stages of what I would describe as the Third World War. 2002 (http://www. bent on striking Israel's American allies. 2006 IT WAS LATE JUNE in Sarajevo when Gavrilo Princip shot Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife. fleet deployments. To accomplish this. Two months later. 2002 [John Steinbach. the awareness of peace's fragility is particularly acute. This campaign should be accompanied by clear demonstrations— through exercises. North Korea and Iran are developing nuclear capabilities. There may be as much hyperbole as prophecy in the forecasts for world war. E. The bloodshed in Lebanon appears to be part of a broader upsurge in unrest. Egypt and Saudi Arabia face violent street protests demanding retribution against Israel — and they eventually yield. It is never possible to talk to Iran about no matter what. In recent years. for the entire planet. intelligence officials spot a shipment of longer-range Iranian missiles heading for Lebanon.glo. Certain religious websites are abuzz with talk of Armageddon. Center for Research on Globalization. March 3. The world is awash in weapons. Iran has engaged in a series of information operations intended to create the impression that it is capable of exerting its military power in the Persian Gulf. triggering a major regional war. "Whoever believes that Israel will ever sign the UN Convention prohibiting the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Iran is relying on a strategy of asymmetric warfare —in essence. however much it may try. and defenses. Some see the start of a global conflict.
Israel no longer needs U. ".. a nuclear escalation. Seymour Hersh warns.com Thursday File Israeli Institute for the Development of Weaponry.while israeli jewish society undergoes a steady polarization. "Should war break out in the Middle East again. the existence of an arsenal of mass destruction in such an unstable region in turn has serious implications for future arms control and disarmament negotiations.) Meanwhile. . It is widely reported that the principal purpose of Jonathan Pollard's spying for Israel was to furnish satellite images of Soviet targets and other super sensitive data relating to U. seizing control of Israeli nuclear weapons..Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 86/148 Cross-X. "The prospect of Gush Emunim.. said in 1994. requiring their own weapons of mass destruction. and perceive its existence as the paramount threat to peace in the region. at the very least.. All those states which feel satisfied with possessing conventional weapons alone are fated to become vassal states. "The moral and political meaning of nuclear weapons is that states which renounce their use are acquiescing to the status of Vassal states..the deepening Middle East conflict could trigger a world conflagration."41) and Ezar Weissman. a perhaps unique exception being the Iraqi SCUD attacks during the Gulf War. nuclear targeting strategy."(40) (Which requires a "nonconventional" response. complicity) is not reversed soon.S. the influence of the radical right becomes stronger.for whatever reason. once unthinkable except as a last resort.S. the Israeli security system increasingly relies on the recruitment of cohorts from the ranks of the extreme right."(39) The Arab states. would now be a strong probability. Israel's current President said "The nuclear issue is gaining momentum(and the) next war will not be conventional. spy secrets.cannot be precluded. and even the threat of nuclear war. the launching of missiles on to Israeli territory is regarded as 'nonconventional' regardless of whether they are equipped with explosives or poison gas. bitterly resent its coercive intent. if the familar pattern(Israel refining its weapons of mass destruction with U." .S. or some secular right-wing Israeli fanatics..) Israeli nukes aimed at the Russian heartland seriously complicate disarmament and arms control negotiations and. as the Iraqis did."(38) As Israeli society becomes more and more polarized. "In Israeli terminology. According to Shahak. an unindicted war criminal with a bloody record stretching from the massacre of Palestinian civilians at Quibya in 1953. During a future Middle Eastern war (a distinct possibility given the ascension of Ariel Sharon. if not for all out nuclear war... the unilateral possession of nuclear weapons by Israel is enormously destabilizing. or some some of the delerious Israeli Army generals. long aware of Israel's nuclear program.."(42) Russia and before it the Soviet Union has long been a major(if not the major) target of Israeli nukes. (43) (Since launching its own satellite in 1988. to the massacre of Palestinian civilians at Sabra and Shatila in 1982 and beyond) the possible Israeli use of nuclear weapons should not be discounted. In the words of Mark Gaffney.or should any Arab nation fire missiles against Israel. According to Shahak. and dramatically lowers the threshold for their actual use.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 87/148
Bahrain is critical to US defense strategy in the Middle East. The 5th Fleet ensure oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, and deters Iran. CBS News – 2/16 (Staff; “Navy's 5th Fleet in Bahrain Eyes Unrest Warily”; February 16, 2011; http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/02/16/501364/main20032183.shtml) CJC Unrest surging through the Arab world has so far taken no toll on the American military. But that could change if revolt washes over the tiny Persian Gulf kingdom of Bahrain longtime home to the U.S. Navy's mighty 5th Fleet and arguably the Middle East anchor of U.S. defense strategy. The discontent that has spilled into the streets of Bahrain's capital, Manama, this week features no anti-American sentiment, but the U.S. has a lot at stake in preserving its dominant naval presence in the Gulf. In announcing that it is "very concerned" about violence linked to the
WASHINGTON protests, the State Department on Tuesday underscored Bahrain's strategic importance as a U.S. partner. "The United States welcomes the government of Bahrain's statements that it will investigate these deaths, and that it will take legal action against any unjustified use of force by Bahraini security forces," said department spokesman P.J. Crowley. "We urge that it follow through on these statements as quickly as possible." The 5th Fleet operates at least one aircraft carrier in the Gulf
Bahrain – 5th Fleet
Cross-X.com Thursday File
at all times, along with an "amphibious ready group" of ships with Marines aboard. Their presence is central to a longstanding U.S. commitment to ensuring the free flow of oil through the Gulf, while keeping an eye on a hostile Iran and seeking to deter piracy in the region. Anthony Cordesman, a Mideast defense specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Bahrain has security services capable of handling protesters and potentially backed by neighboring Saudi Arabia. Thousands of banner-waving protesters took over a main square in Manama
Tuesday in a bold attempt to copy Egypt's uprising. The demonstrations capped two days of clashes that left at least two people dead, and the king made a rare address on national television to offer condolences for the bloodshed. "It is a serious problem, but whether it's going to flare up any more seriously this time than all the other times is hard to say," Cordesman said. "The question is whether they can shake the security structure of the state." The implications for U.S. foreign policy and national security from the pro-democracy movements that have arisen in the Arab world - highlighted by Egypt's stunning revolution - is likely to be a topic Wednesday when Defense Secretary Robert Gates testifies before the House Armed Services Committee. Bahrain became a more prominent partner for the Pentagon after the 1991 Gulf War with Iraq; since then
it has granted U.S. forces increased access, plus permission to store wartime supplies for future crises.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 88/148
Cross-X.com Thursday File
Bahrain Spillover -> Gulf Oil States
Bahrain uprising spillover would be sectarian spilling over into critical Gulf Oil states. Wall Street Journal – 2/16 (Joe Parkinson, Adam Entous, and Julian Barnes, Reporters for the Wall Street Journal; “Wave of Unrest Rolls Into Gulf”; FEBRUARY 16, 2011; http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704409004576145711833269124.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0#) CJC Bahrain is a tiny, island kingdom in the oil-rich Gulf best known for its banking prowess, along with bars that cater to
nationals from alcohol-free Saudi Arabia next door. It pumps little crude itself, but the protests here have brought home to neighboring oil-rich capitals—Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha and Riyadh—a taste of the turmoil that had largely been limited to much poorer corners of the Arab world. It's also the first country experiencing the recent unrest in which the
often-explosive sectarian divide between Sunni and Shiite Muslims has emerged in a meaningful way. Shiites make up small minorities in other recent hot spots, including Egypt, Jordan and Yemen, but religious tensions haven't been a driving factor in unrest in those places. A sustained Shiite uprising in Bahrain would alarm Sunni rulers in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, all Gulf countries with sizable Shiite minorities. They worry about the unrest spilling across their borders, and the possibility Iran would have more opportunities to meddle in the region. Gulf rulers are often quick to blame Iran for instigating trouble among Shiite populations, though real Iranian influence in those communities has been limited.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 89/148
Cross-X.com Thursday File
Egypt -> Bahrain
Egypt has spilled over into Bahrain, threatening to out the Navy’s 5th Fleet and spillover throughout the Gulf region. NYT – 2/16 (Nicholas D. Kristof, Columnist; “Tunisia. Egypt. Bahrain?”; February 16, 2011; http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/17/opinion/17kristof.html) CJC
The gleaming banking center of Bahrain, one of those family-run autocratic Arab states that count as American allies, has become the latest reminder that authoritarian regimes are slow learners. Bahrain
is another Middle East domino wobbled by an angry youth — and it has struck back with volleys of tear gas, rubber bullets and even buckshot at completely peaceful protesters. In the early-morning hours on Thursday here in the Bahrain capital, it used deadly force to clear the throngs of pro-democracy protesters who had turned Pearl Square in the
center of the city into a local version of Tahrir Square in Cairo. This was the last spasm of brutality from a regime that has handled protests with an exceptionally heavy hand — and like the previous crackdowns,
this will further undermine the legitimacy of the government. “Egypt has infected Bahrain,” a young businessman, Husain, explained
to me as he trudged with a protest march snaking through Manama. Husain (I’m omitting some last names to protect those involved) said that Tunisia and Egypt awakened a sense of possibility inside him — and that his resolve only grew when Bahrain’s riot police first attacked completely peaceful protesters. When protesters held a funeral march for the first man killed by police, the authorities here then opened fire on the mourners, killing another person. “I was scared to participate,” Husain admitted. But he was so enraged that he decided that he couldn’t stay home any longer. So he became one of the countless thousands of prodemocracy protesters demanding far-reaching change. At first the protesters just wanted the release of political prisoners, an end to torture and less concentration of power in the al-Khalifa family that controls the country. But, now,
after the violence against peaceful protesters, the crowds increasingly are calling for the overthrow of the Khalifa family. Many would accept a British-style constitutional monarchy in which King Hamad, one of the Khalifas,
would reign without power. But an increasing number are calling for the ouster of the king himself. King Hamad gave a speech regretting the deaths of demonstrators, and he temporarily called off the police. By dispatching the riot police early Thursday morning, King Hamad underscored his vulnerability and his moral bankruptcy.
All of this puts the United States in a bind. Bahrain is a critical United States ally because it is home to the American Navy’s Fifth Fleet, and Washington has close relations with the Khalifa family. What’s more, in some ways Bahrain was a model for the
region. It gives women and minorities a far greater role than Saudi Arabia next door, it has achieved near universal literacy for women as well as men, and it has introduced some genuine democratic reforms. Of the 40 members of the (not powerful) Lower House of Parliament, 18 belong to an opposition party. Somewhat cruelly, on Wednesday I asked the foreign minister, Sheik Khalid Ahmed al-Khalifa, if he doesn’t owe his position to his family. He acknowledged the point but noted that Bahrain is changing and added that some day the country will have a foreign minister who is not a Khalifa. “It’s an evolving process,” he insisted, and he emphasized that Bahrain should be seen through the prism of its regional peer group. “Bahrain is in the Arabian gulf,” he noted. “It’s not in Lake Erie.” The problem is that Bahrain has educated its people and created a middle class that isn’t content to settle for crumbs beneath a paternalistic Arab potentate — and this
country is inherently unstable as a predominately Shiite country ruled by a Sunni royal family. That’s one reason Bahrain’s upheavals are sending a tremor through other gulf autocracies that oppress Shiites, not least Saudi Arabia. A. US-Israel relations are on the brink of collapsing. Failure by the US to appear engaged on the Egyptian crisis to prevent a takeover of the government by radicals, would be perceived by Israel as US abandonment. US must ensure continued diplomacy on the crisis to assure Israel and prevent an extremist takeover. Fabian – 2/15 (Jordan Fabian, Staff Writer at The Hill; “Israelis fretting over U.S. policy”; 02/15/11; http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/144065-israelis-fret-over-us-policy-afterprotests) CJC Israelis are worried about two more years of President Obama, and the crisis in Egypt is adding to their concerns. Israelis already have a cool relationship with Obama, who in
TEL AVIV, Israel — his first year as president called for an Israeli settlement freeze as a precondition to peace talks with the Palestinians. Obama’s 2009 speech in Cairo, which called for a “new beginning” between the West and the Muslim world, was also viewed with skepticism in Israel.
Now there are questions surrounding the leadership of Egypt, Israel’s traditional ally in the Arab world, as well as U.S. policy toward the Middle East. While Israelis uniformly recognize that the U.S.-Israel relationship is strong on the whole, many believe that the unrest in the Arab world could lead Obama to revert to familiar themes they view as hostile to their country’s interests. Former Israeli ambassador to the United States Zalman ***Israel Relations Shell***
php?CID=980) My answer. It has compelled Israel’s key Arab neighbors to reach peace with Israel and to enter the American orbit. Harvard (Dr.) Russia.” could be viewed as even more harmful to Israel. Since no one in the Gulf is sure that the United States has the staying power to maintain such a presence over time.” Barbour said in an address to the Herzliya Conference. constructively and in the spirit of unity that has defined these last few weeks. has been a success. but their comments offered a preview of the coming GOP attacks. The United States has to counter them.S. when candidates often make pledges or take positions they are later pressured to act upon.” Fall 2006. he placed his public focus on the Egyptian people’s struggle for democracy. and so it must massively deploy its own force at tremendous cost. Six Escalation Scenarios to Nuclear World War III. (See “Israeli Nuclear Threats and Blackmail ” . The fact that there has not been a general Arab-Israeli war since 1973 is proof that this pax Americana. from Khomeini to Saddam to Bin Laden to Ahmadinejad. and policymakers in both countries have said that the outcome could strain the American-Israeli relationship.” American support for Israel -indeed. “I am confident that the people of Egypt can find the answers. The unrest in Egypt has prompted divergent responses from President Obama and the Israeli government. Extinction Moore 9—BA in pol sci from Wayne State (Carol.washingtoninstitute. While Obama called for a “credible transition to democracy” in Egypt after President Hosni Mubarak formally stepped down on Friday.org/templateC06. Russia could feel compelled to attack the United States for acts like a U. nor is it produced by the machinations of the “Israel Lobby. even though they should have learned by now.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.com/2009/02/16/six-escalation-scenarios-to-nuclearworld-war-iii/) Israel is especially dangerous because its leaders and supporters have made clear for years that if Israel was ever devastated by any kind of war or attack it would retaliate in indiscriminate “Samson Option” attacks against not just on Muslim cities. nuclear primacy plans. The pressures of the campaign trail. would retaliate with thousands of nuclear bombs against the United States. of course. In contrast. B. It is. in return it is rewarded with nothing but more rocket attacks. http://www. 16 February. the problems the United States faces in the Persian Gulf stem from the fact that it does not have an Israel equivalent there. nuclear attack on Iran.com 90/148 Thursday File Shoval said in an interview that a continued Obama effort to reach out to the Muslim world will be read in Israel as an effort to push Israeli interests to the side. Haley Barbour. have already begun to reopen a split between Obama and his potential Republican rivals on the Middle East. simply. is this: United States support for Israel is not primarily the result of Holocaust guilt or shared democratic values. but against European and even Russian targets.” he said. supporting Israel has been a low-cost way of keeping order in part of the Middle East. when Israel makes such concessions. Three potential 2012 GOP candidates visited the Jewish state during the first five weeks of 2011. but to keep the world’s great reserves of oil out of the grip of the West’s sworn enemies. and do so peacefully.S. . not in the interests of Israel.http://pakalert. for example. the Gulf keeps producing defiers of America. but it has voiced severe worry about the possibility of the country slipping into the hands of Islamic extremists who could undo its 1979 peace treaty with Israel. US-Israel relations key to Middle East stability Kramer 06 – fellow at The Washington Institute and senior fellow at the Olin Institute. Some believe these campaign arguments could eventually become policy differences that would be detrimental to Israel. [beginning with] his Cairo speech. to anticipate my conclusion. argued that a “point of view” has emerged in Washington that “Israel is a problem.” “People who hold this view feel themselves correct to demand from Israel an endless series of dangerous strategic concessions. From a realist point of view. Several potential Republican presidential candidates have called his response misguided. Israel has expressed support for Egyptian democracy.wordpress. None of the Republicans publicly criticized Obama. “The American Interest. Shoval said. the ideal realist alliance. the illusion of its unconditionality – underpins the pax Americana in the eastern Mediterranean. managed by the United States from offshore and without the commitment of any force. Mississippi Gov. Martin. “Obama’s approach to the Middle East. C. Given suspected U. based on the United States-Israel alliance.
Once there is any use of nuclear weapons. then President of Russia.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. U.S. . 1995 Boris Yeltsin. Compare it to a room full of people embarrassed to cough.S. came within three minutes of initiating a full nuclear strike on the United States because of one Norwegian scientific rocket Russians could not identify. as the 2002 movie “Sum of All Fears” illustrates. but once one does.com 91/148 Thursday File which is just a few hundred miles from its border. it will be like giving permission for anyone to use them. “out of control spiral. everyone else feels free to do so.N. Any use of nuclear weapons probably will lead to a rapid escalation. On January 25. cannot stop it. (Details ) And U. imperialism and pre-emptive strikes cannot stop it.” The U. Only a worldwide disarmament movement can stop it.” to nuclear war among most or all nuclear nations–”world nuclear war. leaders also could be spooked by a nuclear incident.
Wall Street Journal – 2/11 (Staff. . 2011. http://online. FEBRUARY 11. were united in calling for a swift transition to democracy. United Nations chief Ban Ki-moon said the army must allow free and fair elections to get back to civilian rule. while acknowledging there will be tough days ahead. Arab League chief Amr Mussa hailed the Egyptian people and army for their "historic achievement" and called for national consensus. Saudi Arabia and Israel. European leaders.html) CJC Mubarak's departure marks the beginning of a new chapter in the Middle Eastern country." he said. one that he thinks will be difficult but more democratic.com/article/BT-CO-20110211-713327. threatening a decades long balance of power in the Mideast. Military Takes Over”.com Thursday File Israel Brink Israel is on edge already. "Egyptians have made it clear that nothing President Barack Obama said the less than genuine democracy will carry the day. too. “AT A GLANCE: Egypt's Mubarak Steps Down. were put on the defensive as events rattled regional allies and foes alike.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 92/148 Cross-X.wsj. in particular.
comment/index. Clapper said in an opening statement Washington (CNN) -to Congress. the chair of the committee. indicating that they are NOT a secular organization. Diane Feinstein. Sen. http://www. D-California.com Thursday File A2: Brotherhood Not A Threat Your evidence is citing Director of National Intelligence Clapper. ties to Iran and the smuggling of weapons into Gaza. that it remains to be seen on Iran and he surmised they supported bringing ***Muslim Brotherhood*** .cnn. who has clarified his statements about the Muslim Brotherhood. expressed concern about whether the U. said his comment last week was misunderstood and he only meant that the group is trying to work within secular political systems. Clapper responded each time it was hard to say or he didn't know -. The group itself is not secular.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 93/148 Cross-X. 2011. “Intel chief says his Muslim Brotherhood remark misunderstood”. speaking to the Senate Intelligence Committee.com/2011/POLITICS/02/16/clapper. Feinstein wanted to know the stated positions of the group with regards to the Middle East peace process. added he would assess they are not in favor of a peace treaty.but he weapons into Gaza. In a series of questions to Clapper.S.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss %2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS%3A+Politics%29) CJC The nation's top intelligence officer sought to clarify Wednesday a comment that was roundly criticized when he said that the Muslim Brotherhood was a "secular" group. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper. intelligence committee knew enough about the Brotherhood's positions. February 16. CNN Reporter. Benson – 2/16 (Pam Benson.
“Ideology shadows fight to rule the new Egypt”. sat at a laminate table in plans for Egypt under democratic rule. "Sharia law does not differ from the demands of the people. chattering in Arabic at aides in dark suits and discussing honor" by stoning adulterers. A man was hacking up a calf on a wood stump. Dorell – 2/14 (Oren Dorell.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 94/148 Cross-X. the "thump thump" of a cleaver could be heard just outside the unadorned office. the Brotherhood — an Islamist group that has held as many as 20% of the seats in Egypt's parliament in recent years — is vowing to increase its influence on daily life in Egypt.com Thursday File Muslim Brotherhood Pushing For Control Muslim Brotherhood is pushing to take control of the government through elections. arranging the meat on a plastic sheet on the patio floor. In the scramble for power among groups of various political identity after last week's ouster of President Hosni Mubarak. 2/14/2011. said Abdel Fattah. answering phone calls." .htm) CJC Fattah. "We basically want a government that will take on the demands of the people that were clear in the revolution of Tahrir Square.com/news/world/2011-02-14-1Aegypt14_CV_N. http://www.usatoday. whose forehead bore the calluses of those who prostrate themselves five times a day in prayer. punishing gays. The Brotherhood would seek "the preservation of AIRO — Ali Abdel his office in South Cairo. spokesman for the long-banned Muslim Brotherhood. Reporter at USA TODAY. requiring Muslim women to cover their heads and shoulders in public and killing Muslims who leave their faith." Abdel Fattah said. As he spoke late Saturday. A bright puddle of blood ran into the street as the animal was slaughtered for a feast celebrating the Brotherhood's hopes for the future.
allowed direct elections for the first time. Wael Nawara of Al Ghad says the Brotherhood would gain 15% of the seats in an election today. He says he memorized the Quran during a 20-year detention under Mubarak's emergency laws. Dorell – 2/14 (Oren Dorell. ." "A Muslim who does not practice regulations of Islam. a lawyer and human rights worker who deals with members of the Brotherhood. Reporter at USA TODAY.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 95/148 Cross-X. Selling scented oils to men outside a mosque in Giza. which would be enough to control the government. http://www. he said "attacks based on religion are wrong." he said.com Thursday File A2: Muslim Brotherhood Not Win Enough Seats Muslim Brotherhood would not have to win the majority. Mohamed Zarea. 56.com/news/world/2011-02-14-1Aegypt14_CV_N. 2/14/2011. under pressure from the Bush administration on human rights issues.usatoday. Some conservative Muslims consider themselves more moderate and would not go along with an extremist program. who's an extremist. says they would get 50%.-designated terrorist group and enemy of Israel. Hezbollah did this despite having just 57 of the 128 seats in Lebanon's parliament. Makram-Ebeid estimates the Brotherhood would gain "only" 30% of parliament seats in elections involving 22 opposition parties she counts as vying for power. is a sinful Muslim.htm) CJC How strong is the Brotherhood? Estimates vary on the political support the Brotherhood has in Egypt. considers himself a conservative Muslim.S. The movement gained 20% of seats in the parliament in 2005 when Mubarak. Mohamed Hossam Eldin Abdel Wahid. “Ideology shadows fight to rule the new Egypt”. a party could do a lot with such a percentage of the parliament's seats. However. who keeps a large red tinted beard and a floor-length ochre robe. a U. Hezbollah. They would get 30% if elections were held now. last month toppled the government of the majority pro-Western parties in Lebanon and installed its own candidate as prime minister.
Jordanian. would have to vest its hopes in the Iranian military. Ball’s moderates were used-up hacks who wouldn’t stand a chance against Khomeini’s mobs. Today in Cairo.com Thursday File Egypt – Influence K2 Avoid Islam Rise American support is critical to ensure a transition that does not give power to the radical Muslim Brotherhood. The error in Tehran in 1979 was one of omission.” Carter protested.” Ball persisted. was undone by fights between Cyrus Vance’s State Department and Zbigniew Brzezinski’s National Security Council.S. President Obama is facing similar hard choices. “You can tell a friend what you think. “I can’t tell another head of state what to do. U. Just before the regime began to totter in 1978. He is the author of Quicksand: America’s Pursuit of Power in the Middle East. Since most Iranians were “poorly educated and highly ignorant.S. Carter’s CIA had predicted that nothing much would change in Iran through 1985: “Iran is not in a revolutionary or even pre-revolutionary situation. Fortunately. Geoffrey Wawro is the General Olinto Mark Barsanti Professor of Military History and Director of the Military History Center at the University of North Texas. or even topple the shah. But decades of repression and fake elections had crushed Iran’s secular parties. Ball worked hard for two weeks. and set up a moderate caretaker government. More than just the right words will be needed. What they needed—all seven declared—was unflinching U. Carter appointed 68-yearold George Ball to sift through conflicting reports to determine just what the U.” As Carter reacted to events in Iran. who they assumed would open corruption investigations that would lead back to the military. backing. ambassador in Tehran. “Geopolitics is not a kindergarten class.” to borrow Hillary Clinton’s phrase. Brzezinski (joined by Defense Secretary Harold Brown and Energy Secretary James Schlesinger) thought the shah might relinquish some domestic authority. to reassure allies and deter the Soviets. “One of the obligations of friendship is to give advice. http://www. to restore the shah or an authoritarian regime. to shut down the press.thedailybeast. just how Iranian demographics would shape the coming upheaval.S. which was still loyal to the shah. there was no credible moderate opposition to undergird a generals’ coup. William Sullivan.” Ball urged Carter to tell the shah to leave Iran. The president has called for an “orderly transition. The letter was never sent. Brzezinski drafted a letter for Carter to send to the shah that baldly enjoined him to use force against the demonstrators.” a clear reference to Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood. and to flood the streets with troops and tanks. The generals feared the Islamists.” he reminded the president. strong internal security services and powerful. read classified and unclassified reports from all sources. The revolutions in Cairo and Tehran have much in common. government confused and demoralized him.” and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has warned there must not be “a takeover that would lead to oppression. pro-Khomeini demonstrations broke out in every Iranian city. and serve as a distant “regent” until things cooled down. The strategic threat of that—then and now—was outlined by the U. Twitter and Facebook in Egypt—and both exploded in major regional states.S. Egyptian. The president must prop up the shah. with astonishing accuracy. Administration hardliners wanted the shah to “get tough. The shah was finished. “1/31/2011. Vance was horrified. were regarded in Washington as “family friends.S. vomited out in “a national regurgitation by the Iranian people. and prevented Washington from acting swiftly and decisively to steer the Iranian revolution in a moderate direction. with big populations. but also moderates. Both were triggered by new media—audiocassettes in Iran. Wawro – 1/31 (Dr. In December 1978. Although Brzezinski and Brown in . but must hold on to police powers and military and foreign affairs. beginning with Iran—that the Soviets might hijack.-supplied militaries. Such a plan. and then met with Carter to render his verdict. No.S. Carter sent General Robert Huyser to speak with the senior Iranian generals and gauge their attitude.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-01-31/egyptian-protests-mirror-1979revolution-in-iran/?cid=bs:archive7) CJC So far the Obama administration seems to be getting it right on Egypt. Carter expressed astonishing diffidence.000 Iranians” if necessary.” any truly democratic movement would “be in a reactionary obscurantist direction under the clergy. The seven Iranian generals Huyser met with expressed their readiness to kill “100. Washington did nothing. and expressed their willingness to launch a coup to keep the shah in power. When the shah left Iran in January 1979 to have his cancer treated. Brzezinski reopened his attack. Both had complex societies. Both simmered under the rule of corrupt strongmen who had held power for three decades. when he predicted. who is surrounded by sycophants. Frozen by opposing views. which held the most promise in late 1978. Noting Carter’s hesitation. State thought the shah was doomed and that Washington needed to reach some accommodation with the Khomeini camp.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 96/148 Cross-X. Just as we today worry that fundamentalists might hijack the Tunisian. Hosni Mubarak and Shah Muhammed Reza Pahlavi.” America’s wisest course now would be to “work out the transfer of power to responsible hands before Khomeini comes back and messes everything up. The Obama team should be looking closely at Washington’s awful mismanagement of the Iranian revolution of 1978-79 to make sure they do not repeat the errors of the Carter administration. the U. turn affairs over to a reliable government. Only the Shiite clergy—like the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt—remained intact and powerful as a political force. ambassador in Tehran in 1970.S. Brzezinski spoke of an “arc of crisis” in the Middle East—a wave of unrest in Islamic countries.” The Carter administration was as startled by the revolution in Tehran as Obama was by the wave of revolutions from Tunis to Cairo. Another wave of riots swept through Tehran in January 1979. purge the fundamentalist opposition. Obama is speaking bluntly with Mubarak about the need for change. and warned Carter that Brzezinski was recommending a course that would end in “1.” to re-arrest political prisoners.” others thought tens of thousands. and Lebanese emergencies. Both dynasts. ought to do about Iran.000 deaths. rifts in the U.” Carter refused to have that conversation with the shah. particularly to a man who is cut off from the normal sources. with big swollen cities like Cairo and Tehran containing both the most and least educated people in the country: a relatively narrow educated elite and a broad mass of slum-dwellers. Iranian generals met with the U. What Huyser discovered was interesting.
Mubarak should turn power over to a respected politician bolstered by Omar Suleiman’s reformed security services. rather than in a country. officers. and that the U. or shot. he relayed the request to Washington. Khomeini’s komitehs— Islamic militias and revolutionary courts—were rounding up the shah’s courtiers.” President Obama is now holding our Egypt policy in his hands. but Carter remained inert. Carter must have wished he had heeded the warning. Carter selected a negative program: merely cultivating contacts with moderate Islamic clergy. credible opposition moderates like Mohamed ElBaradei must be empowered to move the country forward without a breakdown in security or an Islamist coup. Embassy could no longer be protected. mixed “provisional revolutionary government. Just as Egyptian fighter jets are orbiting Cairo in a show of strength. The imperial military’s hour had seemingly arrived. But the hand we played in 1979 was self-nullifying. He and his subordinates recommended the embassy staff be reduced to “six officers and a vicious dog.” Brown urged Brzezinski—Carter refused to roll the dice. “In Iran. who will loosen their grip but not permit the Muslim Brotherhood to knock over a “national unity government” as easily as Khomeini crushed Iran’s first. Instead. and politicians in the vain hope that they would counter Khomeini’s radicalism and step in if the ayatollah’s movement unraveled. the generals declared “neutrality”. the Iranian air force did the same in early February 1979. Sullivan cabled Washington on February 27. The generals made a last appeal to Ambassador Sullivan for support.” None of this will be easily accomplished. . “When the shah fell. The Iranian generals threw in the towel. which has vexed and weakened American policy for more than 30 years.” (When the embassy was actually seized eight months later. and America has only an auxiliary role. warning that anti-American sentiment was boiling over in the streets and the press. Carter decided that Iran was Khomeini’s.) With Washington in retreat. came to naught. all our investment in an individual. and helped usher in the Islamic Republic of Iran. most were arrested. The president still effectively controlled the Iranian generals and might have fashioned a moderate reform coalition under their aegis.com Thursday File Washington and General Alexander Haig at NATO headquarters in Belgium were still for unleashing the Iranian military against the ayatollahs—“give the officers a go-ahead.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 97/148 Cross-X.” an American colonel named Colin Powell observed from the Pentagon. exiled. our Iran policy fell with him. It wasn’t. The Egyptian army must be restrained. He must move fast and deal bluntly with President Mubarak.S. refusing even to dispatch a carrier to the Persian Gulf. The army stood down and let the demonstrations disarm it.
“The question is whether that supply gets cut off at some point. That could have a disastrous impact on an economy that has just begun picking up steam. driving per-barrel prices to $120 or more and gas prices at the pump well beyond $4 a gallon. If a new Egyptian government. 2011.”. Muslim Brotherhood. perhaps one dominated by the anti-U. pinch point of the Mideast oil supply. speaking on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” said Monday. . http://dyn. when the first huge demonstrations rocked Cairo. “Right now.” former Obama car czar Steve Rattner. POLITICO – 2/1 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico and Mike Allen is the chief political correspondent for Politico and Laura Rozen is a reporter at POLITICO. but that’s a risk.S.politico. tankers would be forced to undertake the six-to-eight-week trek around the Horn of Africa. decides to block the canal.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 98/148 Cross-X.com Thursday File Brotherhood = Price Spikes Muslim Brotherhood control risks cutting off Oil from the Middle East devastating our econ recover and causing Oil Spikes. the market doesn’t think it’s all that likely. but it controls the Suez Canal. experts say.com/printstory. up to more than $92 per barrel. “Egypt: Worst scenarios for W. prices have soared about 7 percent.H. February 1.” Oil traders have begun factoring in that risk: Since Friday.cfm? uuid=DE7516BA-D472-D8ED-D73BCE853D37CED6) CJC Egypt produces no oil and is hardly an economic powerhouse with global reach. especially if any such blockade includes Egypt’s critical Sumed pipeline.
a banned Islamic resistance movement that is not on the friendliest of terms with the West. Fortune 500). “Biggest corporate stakes in Egypt's power shift”. The protests in 1978 and 1979. It's not without reason. Lockheed Martin (LMT. The United States is a major exporter to the country. but noteworthy energy sector. The most powerful group with the largest following usually comes out on top. Fortune 500). http://money. ADM (ADM. A confluence of economic changes in both countries helped widen the divide between the rich and the poor. who is critical of President Obama's reluctance to call for Mubarak's resignation. and the US State Department. who won a Nobel Peacce Prize for his leadership of the IAEA. the Islamic fundamentalists had the poor firmly in their grasp and used their mass to overwhelm the other groups. European oil companies like the UK's BP (BP) and Italy's ENI (E) have had a major presence in the country for decades drilling for oil and gas. Fortune 500). is now leading the opposition groups' newly formed steering committee. A possible revolution in the most populous and influential nation in the Arab world shouldn't be taken lightly given the possibility of an anti-Western government coming to power in Cairo.com Thursday File Brotherhood = Econ Collapse Muslim Brotherhood coming into power would collapse Western economies.3 billion in military aid to Egypt. Fortune 500).fortune/index. That is equivalent to about 50% of the estimated value of Apache's Egyptian assets. The US also delivers $1. and has several western energy companies working in the country. ranging from US foes like Syria to staunch US FORTUNE -allies like Jordan and Saudi Arabia. much of which is recycled back to US defense contractors like Boeing (BA. but the economic backdrop is similar. which funds their activities. CNN Money – 1/31 (Cyrus Sanati. like in Egypt. Fortune 500). Northrup Grumman (NOC. But no company has more exposure to the energy sector in Egypt like Apache Corporation (APA. So if Egypt falls to an Islamic theocracy. Fortune 500). making up around 10% of Egypt's total imports. January 31. seemed to catch the world. . is pushing for a peaceful transition to democracy. There are of course very large differences between Arab Egypt today and Persian Iran 32 years ago. from liberals to Islamic fundamentalists. It has said it wants to establish Sharia (Islamic) law in the country and ban all women and Christians from government (Christians make up 10% of the population of Egypt). which has alleviated some fears on Wall Street and Washington. corn and soybeans to Egypt averaging around $2 billion a year. The US supplies wheat.com/2011/01/31/news/international/egypt_economic_interests. It's not yet clear what kind of government would emerge if the current autocratic regime led by President Hosni Mubarak were to fall. Wall Street has wiped $5 billion off Apache's market value since the riots began amid fears that a new government could expropriate their land concessions. it will probably spell bad news for the western companies operating in the country. did not come about overnight. They eventually turned on their former coalition partners and wiped them out. Fortune 500) and Raytheon (RTN. especially the United States. Egypt also has a small. bringing about the angst that we see today. They provide support for older US-made military equipment. The scenes from the protests in Egypt look eerily similar to ones that swept Iran 32 years ago. contributor. and also sell Egypt new weapons. The largest and most organized of the opposition groups is the Muslim Brotherhood.cnn. have banded together to oust Mubarak. Such a scenario could occur in Egypt. totally off guard. with a total investment of more than $7 billion over the past 17 years. In Iran. General Dynamics (GD.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 99/148 Cross-X. Egypt now accounts for a quarter of the company's earnings. It could lead to the expulsion of US and Western companies from Egypt and threaten the stability of more secular Arab states. which led to the establishment of an anti-western Islamic Republic. 2011. The revolution that swept Iran and seems to be festering in Egypt. Western business in an Islamic theocracy But a revolution can quickly turn. It is by far the largest US investor in Egypt. Mohamed El Baradei. That could hurt the sales of companies like ConAgra (CAG. Apache's large investment in Egypt has not gone unnoticed by the markets. Disparate Egyptian opposition groups.ht m) CJC The recent demonstrations in Egypt have rocked world markets and sent investors scrambling for the exits. They seemed to have sprung out of nowhere but offered some hope that the dictator ruling the country would fall to a more democratic regime. El Baradei. It has no formal connection with Washington but it does have strong ties to Tehran. like the F-4 and F-16 attack fighters. Fortune 500) and Cargill. What is clear is that US economic interests in the entire region would be at risk if Egypt falls under the veil of Islamic fundamentalism.
Until now. Remember that Iran has a population of 79 million and Egypt has 75 million. Imagine if this president. Look at what Carter's abandonment of the Shah has cost the world and is likely to cost it in the future.com Thursday File Brotherhood = ME Instability Allowing the Muslim Brotherhood in the door would open all of the Middle East to extremism undermining American leadership globally and completely destabilizing the Middle East. To the extent that it masquerades as a peaceful body. they could control the region. he will pay for it politically in 2012. 2011. whose domestic policy initiatives are coming apart at the seams. he may find himself confronted with a Middle Eastern version of the old domino theory. Obama is committing the same sin that Dwight Eisenhower did in Cuba and Jimmy Carter did in Iran. loses office over a foreign policy blunder.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 100/148 Cross-X. February 2.realclearpolitics. We have had some terror attacks. Trent Lott (R-Miss. Together. If he permits Egypt to slip through our fingers and go over to the Iranian sphere of influence. to be sure. to Israel and to the entire Western world. “ Obama Following a Very Risky Strategy With Egypt”. Morris – 2/2 (Dick Morris. Any coalition with the Brotherhood is as likely to remain secular as Adolf Hitler's early coalition with Paul von Hindenburg in Germany was likely to stay non-Nazi. His re-election hopes may be doomed if Iran takes over. By failing to back Mubarak. But his policy of appeasement toward radical Islam has yet to have any bad consequence. Obama will have permanently damaged America's vital interests. where one nation after another falls to Islamism.html) CJC Obama better hope that the crowds clamoring for an overthrow of the Hosni Mubarak regime really do achieve a functioning liberal democracy rather than an Iranian-style theocracy. He needs to understand that the radical Islamists mean us ill and that any effort to appease them is bound to fail.) and President Bill Clinton. but none have risen to the level of a cataclysm. We now face the possibility that a radicalized Egypt could be Obama's gift to the globe. The Muslim Brotherhood will take over if it gets its foot in the door. . Just as Richard Nixon helped to discredit Harry Truman President and defeat Democratic presidential nominee Adlai Stevenson in 1952 by trumpeting the question.com/articles/2011/02/02/will_obama_lose_egypt_108751. Inspired by an Islamic takeover in Egypt. If Egypt and Iran were to work in tandem. The Muslim Brotherhood is allied closely with Hamas. http://www. Americans have regarded Obama's flirtation with the Arab street with a mild concern that he may be too naive in his understanding of that part of the world. their 154 million almost equal the combined population of all the other nations in North Africa and the Middle East. a former political adviser to Sen. But losing Egypt to the grip of Islamic fundamentalism would be a huge blow to the United States. If Egypt falls. "Who lost China?" Obama may well have to explain how and why he lost Egypt. It would literally open the door to a theocratic Iranian-style empire stretching from Morocco to Iran. it is a wolf in sheep's clothing. with each new theocratic conquest destabilizing its neighbor.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 101/148 Cross-X. http://www. when he is now well placed for the succession to Hosni Mubarak. against Bush. was chief UN atomic weapons inspector -- .realclearpolitics.html) CJC Four days ago I wrote that. between the Mubarak regime and the "spoilt children of Egypt's middle classes" -. Warren – 2/3 (David Warren. Then. But this support remained cautious.com/articles/2011/02/03/face_in_the_crowd_108750.inspired by the riots in Tunisia to try their luck in Tahrir Square. Political Reporter.are the valves fully opening. "until fresh factors come into play. Only now that Mubarak's position is untenable -." Let me update that. 2011. "No one can predict what will come of" the Egyptian demonstrations. February 3. and is the Muslim Brotherhood appropriating the revolution.the man who ran interference for the Iranian regime. with the support of the Muslim Brotherhood. The latter have reached for power fairly cleverly.because the Egyptian army is distancing itself from him -. Mohamed ElBaradei -. At first they presented themselves as entirely neutral. “Face in the Crowd”.com Thursday File Muslim Brother Hood Pushing For Power Muslim Brotherhood is rising to take power. many imams apparently told their flocks to go swell the demonstrators' ranks. at Friday prayers.
H.com Thursday File Brotherhood = No MEPP Radical takeover will undermine Egypt-Israel Peace Accords and gut any possibility of a successful MEPP. “Egypt: Worst scenarios for W.cfm?uuid=DE7516BA-D472-D8EDD73BCE853D37CED6) CJC The most obvious danger. February 1. one of the reasons the Egyptian army remains so popular among its people was its near success against Israel during the bloody Yom Kippur war in 1973. And that could. perversely. push Obama — a president who vowed to improve relations with the Arab world — back into a much closer alliance with Israel after two years of tense relations with the traditional U.politico. ally in the region. gaming out the various scenarios — ranging from chillier relations to A new Egypt-Israel conflict Nasser-type saber rattling in Cairo. according to administration officials.”. http://dyn. “But the illusion of a real peace with Israel is over. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been meeting around the clock with advisers. is that any new Egyptian regime will almost certainly adopt a more militant stance toward its partner in peace for more than three decades. Israel.” Munayyer added.com/printstory. In fact. 2011. a more militant Cairo could wipe out whatever remaining hope lingered for an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal.S.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 102/148 Cross-X. . “We’re not talking about another war.” Even if Egypt and Israel don’t come to blows. POLITICO – 2/1 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico and Mike Allen is the chief political correspondent for Politico and Laura Rozen is a reporter at POLITICO.
witness the failures of the 2009 Green Movement in Iran and the Cedar Revolution in Lebanon in 2005.com. as commentator Daniel Pipes wrote in this newspaper on Wednesday. appear to be looking for an interim government that would minimise Mr Mubarak's role and give everyone a chance to regroup. Time is needed anyway for changes to be made in the constitution to allow for more democracy. but popular protests do not always bear fruit -. Immediate elections would result in a takeover by the Muslim Brotherhood. but ensure that in the process extremist Islam does not secure a foothold. anxious that immediate elections would open wide the door to the Muslim Brotherhood (outlawed but experienced in running independent candidates at earlier elections) in the absence of other strong opposition parties. Those impatient for change should remember that revolutions. are unpredictable -.theaustralian. The Australian – 2/4 (“High stakes in the square”. even when successful. Martin Indyk. In the short term. . http://www. The military will be a critical partner in the transition government and checking back extremist rise. especially given the divergence of views between Washington and Cairo about the timetable for change and the role that should be played by Mr Mubarak.that will be most crucial in determining what happens next. A post-Mubarak Egypt is inevitable. But with the clashes continuing overnight. 2011. The army did not intervene in the chaotic events in Tahrir Square yesterday as pro-Mubarak riders on horses and camels clashed with the anti-government protesters. whatever the timing. The US must ensure that there is a transition government. it appears likely. argued on ABC TV Lateline on Wednesday night that Egyptians will not accept a process overseen by Mr Mubarak because they "simply do not trust him to ensure there will be a free and fair election". While Egypt is still in flux. The challenge for Egypt's powerbrokers is to increase popular participation in the life of the nation.au/news/opinion/high-stakes-in-the-square/story-e6frg71x1225999765488) CJC The immediate question is how to move forward. The Americans. that "the militaries will remain the ultimate powerbrokers" in the Middle East. if not the protesters -.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 103/148 Cross-X. The respected Middle East commentator and former US ambassador to Israel.witness the deposition of the shah in 1979 that ushered in the Islamic republic in Iran. how long before anarchy forces the hand of the military? Some have wanted to present Tahrir Square as the "Berlin Wall" of the Middle East. February 04.which continues to position itself on the side of the people. The 82-year-old leader is the sticking point.com Thursday File Transition K2 Check Muslim Brotherhood Timing is everything. it is the military -.
2011. described the brotherhood as "largely secular. President Jimmy Carter's U.N. February 13. the Director of National Intelligence. But they seem to have been as surprised by the protests -. In testimony to the House Intelligence Committee Thursday.as the Obama administration was.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 104/148 Cross-X.it is the father of all current terror groups in the Middle East.realclearpolitics." The Muslim brothers are bad guys. was a deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force in the Reagan administration. They are based on ignorance of reality. once described the Ayatollah Khomeini as "some kind of saint. “Beware the Muslim Brotherhood”. James Clapper." said John Podhoretz of Commentary magazine.according to Kuwait's education minister -.com/articles/2011/02/13/beware_the_muslim_brotherhood_108878. ***Foreign Aid*** .ht ml) CJC When journalists tout the brotherhood's "moderation" because it has publicly eschewed violence. http://www. Kelly – 2/13 (Jack Kelly. Obama administration cluelessness about the brotherhood is dangerously reminiscent of Carter administration policy toward Iran in 1979.com Thursday File A2: Muslim Brotherhood Not Threat Claims of Muslim Brotherhood moderation have no warrants. that it grew to prominence because of its alliance with Adolf Hitler and that -.which have been dominated by young people who seem genuinely interested in freedom and democracy -. ambassador. Confusion about the Muslim Brotherhood is not limited to journalists. a former Marine and Green Beret. they fail to mention that its goals are similar to al-Qaida's." "This is one of the most reckless and irresponsible statements ever made publicly by an American official at a critical and delicate moment. Andrew Young.
S. and he renewed a threat to withhold aid from Egypt if it necessary to push for democracy there. "President Mubarak's decision to stand down from future leadership of the government is welcome. 2011.” Congress will cut aid if military fails to ensure transition. Later Friday. policy. “Obama says change in Egypt "must begin now"”. “The Egyptian people are demanding a meaningful and irreversible transition to democracy. foreign aid. http://www.wsj. but his continued role in Egypt's transition is unrealistic. 2011. http://online.” said Arizona Senator John McCain.bloomberg. reporter for Bloomberg News. Patrick Leahy (D. warned annual U." Leahy. senator who oversees foreign aid said Mubarak had no credibility to oversee Egypt's transition. Failure for Obama to get results means that Congress will take action and cut off aid to Egypt.html) CJC Sen. who heads the committee responsible for yearly spending on diplomacy and international aid.com/article/BT-CO-20110211-713327. lawmakers also reacted with skepticism to Mubarak's announcement.S. Military Takes Over”.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 105/148 Cross-X. the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee.S. Wall Street Journal – 2/11 (Staff. 2011. “AT A GLANCE: Egypt's Mubarak Steps Down.S. http://www.. said. "We (the United States) should do what we can to support a transition to democracy including. aid to Egypt could be "at risk" if Cairo's military thwarts a transition to democratic rule. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. including peace with Israel.). a Democrat. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. Vt." said Senator Patrick Leahy. “Public Praise. “I urge the Egyptian military to faithfully support and secure the coming process of political change in Egypt. Some . withholding aid to the government.com Thursday File Congress Cut Aid Congress would cut aid if it felt Egyptian Military was going the wrong direction. FEBRUARY 11. The U. Staff. Reuters – 2/1 (Caren Bohan and Andrew Quinn. Feb 13.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military. Feb 1.S.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-obamaidUSTRE7109F720110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC U. who chairs the Senate appropriations subcommittee that approves U.html) CJC Congress could cut back the aid if Egypt moves in a direction contrary to U. if it becomes necessary.reuters.
2011. aid to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's government.S.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 106/148 Cross-X. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”. when lawmakers will get an opportunity to make changes.com Thursday File Aid: Peaceful Transition K2 Prevent Cut US won’t cut aid now. Feb 2. lawmakers are unlikely to slash American aid to Egypt quickly.5 billion a year. congressional aides and analysts said on Wednesday. but if the issue is not resolved they are willing to gut it. which has been running at $1. Views of the Egyptian turmoil vary on Capitol Hill.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC U. Staff. Much depends on events between now and then.S. http://www. the Republican-run House of Representatives seems more cautious than the Democratic-run Senate about cutting U. For now. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell. That could lead to a battle over withholding aid to Egypt later this month.reuters. but they are watching to see where unrest there leads. WASHINGTON (Reuters) - .
In fact. .6393912.com/news/opinion/editorials/la-ed-egypt-20110203. During his mid-day press briefing Friday. Obama’s advisers believed that the informal checks and balances that had kept Egypt firmly in America’s corner would continue with or without Mubarak. including well more than $1 billion for the Egyptian military.0. February 1. Washington Post – 1/31 (Editorial Staff. The military was the key: most of the more then $1 billion in annual aid. flows directly to them. The strong secular undercurrent in most major Egyptian cities kept the Brotherhood in check as much as the heavy-handed security forces did.5 billion in annual aid to Egypt. US has the necessary influence to shape the outcome in Egypt because of its Aid package. siding with the police would be tantamount to abandoning the U. which is a much respected and highly influential institution. January 31.com/whitehouse/a-white-house-policy-on-egypt-evolves-20110201) CJC The Brotherhood had done a poor job of recruiting young Egyptians. and there are strong cultural. both sides in Egypt have been aggressively appealing for support from the Obama administration. http://www. Anti-Americanism has been a minor theme in the protests. for the military. “Egypt after Mubarak”. values the relationship with the U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 107/148 Cross-X.html) CJC The most misguided assertion in Washington holds that the United States lacks the capacity to influence the outcome of the Egyptian crisis. Obama turned his intelligence briefing into a seminar about Egypt.com/wpdyn/content/article/2011/01/31/AR2011013104517. the administration should be making explicit the connection between future funding for the Egyptian military and that democratic transition. Publicly insinuating that future money would be conditioned on how Egyptian leaders handled the protesters demand was less of a direct threat than simply the application of direct leverage: Mubarak would have to tread lightly when ordering his military to backstop his police.washingtonpost. a legacy of the SadatBegin peace accord. http://www. “A White House Policy on Egypt Evolves”.the United States supplies $1. and it mostly reflected outrage over the slowness of the United States to dissociate itself from Mubarak.S. 2011.com Thursday File Aid K2 Leverage Aid to Egypt gives the US direct influence over the military. LA Times – 2/3 (Staff.S. On Friday morning. its membership ranks were fewer than polls showed. The army. (and the military aid that accompanies it). “Misconceptions about the Egyptian crisis”. aid to Egypt would be contingent upon the country’s reactions to the protests. http://www. The White House has rightly hinted that that aid is now at stake." Both in public and in every other communications channel. and for good reason . educational and economic ties between the two countries built over many years.S. That is why they did not fight protestors. 2011. which had reached gale-force size.S. peppering his foreign policy team with questions about the relationship between Egyptian police and the military.story) CJC A policy of the Mubarak regime that is likely — but not guaranteed — to survive the transition is Egypt's intimate relationship with the United States. support for a "transition" to "real democracy. Aid is critical to the US continuing to have relations.latimes.nationaljournal. and on Sunday Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton finally announced U. The military connection is the only way that US-Egypt relations will remain and aid is the lynch-pin. press secretary Robert Gibbs seemed to imply that further U. February 3. Ambinder – 2/1 (Marc Ambinder is the White House Correspondent for National Journal Group. 2011.
reuters.com Thursday File Aid K2 Arms Sales Cutting aid to Egypt puts the brakes on billions of dollars in regional arms sales. http://www.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Most U. aid to Egypt is military and has gone for things like M1A1 Abrams battle tanks and F-16 fighter aircraft. Staff. 2011. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”. analysts say. The unrest in Egypt and other Middle Eastern countries could put the brakes on billions of dollars of arms sales to the entire region. Feb 2.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 108/148 Cross-X.S. . Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell.
com Thursday File Aid Cut Quickly Obama can cut off aid in the pipeline immediately if there is not a peaceful resolution.nationaljournal. and our values. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell. referring to the Mubarak government." he said." he said.J. http://www. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”. if it becomes necessary. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Leahy added the Obama administration could stop spending money already appropriated by Congress for this year. Crowley said last week the United States would continue to monitor how Egypt's military responds to the crisis -suggesting that a major army intervention to put down protests might trigger a change. 2011. House and Strohm – 2/2 (Billy House is a Congress writer for National Journal. “The welcome restraint and professionalism shown by the Egyptian Army so far is a testament to the long relationship between our two countries. "There are stipulations in terms of the behavior of recipients of our assistance. Leahy said. http://www.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Democratic Senator Patrick Leahy chairs the Senate subcommittee in charge of foreign aid and has taken a harder line on continuing aid to the Mubarak government. Senate is willing to gut aid quickly. Chris Strohm covers homeland security and intelligence for National Journal Group." he added. "There is money in the pipeline. .” he said. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”. we'll make adjustments as we need to." "Those would be very appropriate areas to spend American aid. February 2. which he says has "no credibility" to oversee the transition to democracy. State Department spokesman P. “Post-Mubarak.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 109/148 Cross-X." Leahy told Reuters Insider Television. 2011. http://www. withholding aid to the government. our policies. And obviously. 2011. "But it's certainly not going to be spent on a government that must leave and is dragging its feet on leaving. Leahy suggested on Wednesday that Washington should think about economic aid for a new government in Cairo. Staff. if aid is used in a way that is contrary to our laws. the administration can stop that money at any time.com/member/daily/post-mubarak-questions-of-aid-get-complicated-20110201) CJC In his own statement. Questions of Aid Get Complicated”.reuters. saying he hoped for a transition to a government that would address joblessness and hunger and "the suffering of the people.” “But we should do what we can to support a transition to democracy including. Feb 2. Staff.reuters. Congress will cut aid to speed up the transition. Feb 2.
Egypt has been a moderate influence in the Middle East and has a peace agreement with Israel. and might take a different approach.reuters.S." Granger said. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 110/148 Cross-X. response to events in Egypt will be.com Thursday File Egypt – A2: No Aid Cut – Budget Aid can be cut in the coming budget. . urged caution this week in deciding what the U. Senate will wait to act until after house which means they can reconcile the difference. Staff. The chambers would then have to work out their differences. 2011. http://www.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC The House Republican who chairs the committee on foreign aid. I am continuing to monitor the events on the ground very closely. The Democratic-run Senate will act on the funding bill after the House. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell. Representative Kay Granger. Feb 2. "It is critical that we are deliberate about the actions we take.
Feb 2. ***Iran*** .3 billion per year. military aid to Egypt. Our relationship has been a stabilizing one.S. "Our assistance to Egypt is longstanding. “U. 2011. urges restraint in Egypt. would be reviewed as events unfold but U. Reuters – 2/2 (Arshad Mohammed and Andrew Quinn. http://www. It is based on the work that we've done together." State's Crowley said on Monday.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-idUSTRE71175920110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC The White House said last week U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 111/148 Cross-X.S. struggles for policy”.S.com Thursday File Egypt – Aid On Table US is putting the question of Aid to Egypt on the table. which runs about $1. officials have indicated it would not be quickly cut off.reuters.
Unlike Egypt’s scenario. “Let me very clearly and directly support the aspirations of the people who are in the streets in Iran today. a national security policy chairman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. which the White House openly admitted came as a surprise. unpredictable and. potentially. unrest in Iran has festered for more than a year — which analysts believe has prepared the Ahmadinejad regime to respond swiftly to threats of opposition. “Iran has been in a period of turmoil now for a full 18 months. coupled with near-complete suppression of the media. violent repression.S. 2/15/11. the diplomatic scenarios in Iran are dramatically different.” said Suzanne Maloney. near-certain threat of government-backed. was simply that this came out of nowhere. day in and day out.” By contrast. which drew flak for sending mixed messages during the crisis. “There’s no real way to predict which of the pressures for change [in the Mideast] are going to become serious and reach a crisis point.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 112/148 Cross-X. The uprising in Iran can be successful with continued effective US diplomacy. Maloney said. adversary and the subject of United Nations sanctions. “Basic problem that you face here is that you have to deal with this country by country.html) CJC A second test of President Barack Obama’s Middle East foreign policy is brewing in the streets of Tehran this week. It ensures stable transitions between regimes. “What I think was so powerful. US must stay focused on a country by country basis.politico. . Following the popular uprising in Egypt that toppled the 30-year authoritarian regime of President Hosni Mubarak. and what set the Egyptian government so off-kilter. some of the same activists who led Iran’s failed Green Revolution in 2009 are taking to the streets again — and facing the same. Unlike Mubarak.com Thursday File Diplomacy = Iran Transition Continued focus for our diplomacy efforts is critical in the Middle East. make the situation in Iran more unstable.” said Anthony Cordesman. The White House and the State Department. Phillip – 2/15 (Abby Phillip is a staff writer. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a U. The Obama administration also learned from the Egyptian revolution.” At the same time. more dangerous. “They’re watching for this.” Administration officials are monitoring events in Iran closely and attempting to gauge whether the latest street demonstrations will gain momentum. http://www. has been careful to speak with a unified voice — including efforts to spread democracy to Iran. who served as an Iranian affairs adviser in the Bush-era State Department. But the absence of a diplomatic relationship. The administration’s response to protests in Tehran on Monday largely mirrored its public statements three weeks ago after demonstrators filled the streets of Cairo. “We wish the opposition and the brave people in the streets across cities in Iran the same opportunity that they saw the Egyptians seize.” Maloney said. the Iranian regime has learned from last year’s protests and the outcome in Egypt — lessons that could prompt the government to launch a more systematic and unbridled crackdown on dissent. “W.” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told reporters Monday.H.com/news/stories/0211/49513. takes Egypt wisdom to Iran”. which lessens the extent to which the State Department and the White House have to conduct diplomatic back flips in their public statements.
com Thursday File ***** Affirmative Answers***** .Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 113/148 Cross-X.
EBSCO) To improve the planning.S. The initial changes may not be enough for many in Egypt calling for the current constitution. The panel's convening indicated the military was trying to push ahead quickly with a transition after Mubarak resigned Friday in the face of 18 days of unprecedented popular protests that massed hundreds of thousands. even after more than 30 years and billions of dollars of U. “Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood plans political party”. http://www. • 3. “The fact that we have a good relationship means that they’re going to listen to you. execution.html#storylink=mirelated) CJC Egypt's long banned Muslim Brotherhood said Tuesday it intends to form a political party once democracy is established.S. one of its members Mohammed Hassanein Abdel-Al. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. and assessment of U. reporter for Bloomberg News.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 114/148 Cross-X. assistance as part of a two-way bargain. including expanded use of opinion research and better designate more administrative positions to overseas public affairs sections to reduce the administrative burden. 2.to end the monopoly that ousted President Hosni Mubarak's ruling party once held.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military. 2011.within 10 days . The panel is to draw up changes at a breakneck pace .S. 2011. Two members on the panel said the next elected government could further change the document if it choses. also includes a Christian supreme court judge. Among the panel's members is Sobhi Saleh. CAIRO -which it ensured through widespread election rigging. Non-Unique: Muslim Brotherhood has already been included in the current negotiations and elections are coming fast. Sun News – 2/14 (LEE KEATH and HAMZA HENDAWI . The military's choices for the panel's makeup were a sign of the new political legitimacy of the Muslim Brotherhood. “Public Praise.html) CJC The Egyptian military can afford to exercise its independence from foreign interference. • strengthen efforts to train Foreign Service officers in foreign languages. Feb 13. not that they’re going to follow you. The eight-member committee. a former U. lobbyist for Egypt who’s now a scholar for the Middle East Institute in Washington. GAO-03-951.S.com Thursday File ***2AC F/L*** 1. unleashed by the turmoil. • consider ways to collaborate with the private sector to employ best practices for measuring efforts to inform and influence target audiences. the fundamentalist group that was the most bitter rival of Mubarak's regime. public diplomacy efforts. “In the end. along with other judges and legal experts.com/2011/02/14/1981307/egypts-us-envoy-says-mubarakmay. officials and analysts say. http://www. The military is now also urging an end to labor strikes that spread wildly across the country Sunday and Monday. GAO 2003 (Government Accountability Office. to be thrown out completely and rewritten to ensure no one can once again establish autocratic rule. 4 September 2003.Associated Press reporters. as the country's new military rulers launched a panel of experts to amend the country's constitution enough to allow democratic elections later this year. 14. they’ll make the decision based on what is best in the Egyptians’ national interest.S. because of its relative professionalism and its view of U. Diplomatic capital doesn’t trade off – the state department can collaborate and hire more people to avoid any tradeoff. a widely respected former judge and scholar who was once a secular leftist but later became one of the most foremost thinkers of what Egyptians refer to as the "moderate Islamic" political trend and is seen as a bridge between the movements. The panel is headed by Tareq el-Bishri.”. US does not have influence over Egyptian military.” The Egyptian military may also have acquired some of its professional standards and . Feb. a legal scholar told The Associated Press.” said Graeme Bannerman. use of existing research. coordination. now suspended by the military. we recommend that the Secretary of State • develop and widely disseminate throughout the department a strategy that considers the techniques of private sector public relations firms in integrating all of State’s public diplomacy efforts and directing them toward achieving common and measurable objectives. assistance. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. which met with Defense Minister Hussein Tantawi on Tuesday. Public Diplomacy: State Department Expands Efforts but Faces Significant Challenges: GAO-03-951. and • program adequate time for public diplomacy training into State’s assignment process.thesunnews.bloomberg. “U. a former lawmaker from the Brotherhood seen as part of its reformist wing.
and the U. political.S. conventional diplomacy has either not been tried or not been very successful. Aaron David. and Somalia.S. and much of the third and fourth worlds believe.S. US diplomacy is ineffective – countries will say no and conflicts are escalating now.foreignpolicy. looking back over the last 60 years. “The End of Diplomacy?”. wars of choice. Foreign Policy. And America is unlikely to prevail in any meaningful sense of the word where corrupt. however -. opening to China. for advanced training. doggedly pursuing Middle East peace. Still. the problems are four parts military.S. http://www. the W. Dreazen – 2/1 ( Yochi Dreazen is a senior correspondent for National Journal Group covering military affairs and national security. Diplomatic Capital is irrelevant in a post Mubarak world. including the Vietnam War and out-of-control CIA operations. What's more. The US does not have influence on the events in Egypt. you really do have to wonder whether America's best diplomacy and foreign policy are behind it. In the end. Even in areas where diplomacy might seem to work on paper -. Pakistan. and maybe one part diplomacy. president who has gone further to engage Iran than any of his predecessors is watching any hope for diplomacy being ground up by a regime under siege in Tehran.. effective Arab-Israeli diplomacy. five parts nationbuilding. Effective American diplomacy may well be going the way of the dodo. and nasty regional conflicts. In garden spots like Iraq. But there were also brilliant achievements: the Marshall Plan. It's not from the big that the president's problems come.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 115/148 Cross-X. extractive regimes are unable to control their own territory and cut deals with anti-American elements and place their security and political concerns first. and economic power toward impressive ends. 19881991) when the United States marshaled its military. military educational institutions such as the service war colleges and the National Defense University. it's from the small. there was a time when American diplomacy did big and important things. Lamenting the absence of great men years before his own shining moment. And in one of the cruelest ironies of all. détente with the Russians. No more. administration is handicapping itself with a dysfunctional bureaucratic setup that makes it harder to focus and find its footing. and the sad fact is there may be little Barack Obama can do about it. the answers to the many questions set off by Mubarak’s departure will have to come from the Egyptians themselves. and India) can't be of much help. in addition to the contacts they have in Egypt with U. it seems. 1. The Obama administration wants to do this kind of stuff. NATO. and have already begun thinking through what may come next. . The image of the shuttling secretary of state preempting crises or exploiting them to broker agreements. But the Obama administration and its allies have only limited influence on the future course of events on the ground in Egypt. There were. Israel”. a competent American role in the acceleration and management of the end of the Cold War. Feb. right. America is a good deal weaker. More than 500 a year come to the U. 2011. though it has had its share of problems with China. 2-3-2010 [2/3/2010. public-policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. once upon a time. nuclear proliferation.S.com Thursday File ethics while studying at U. “Mubarak's Departure Raises Tough Questions for U.the United States is hampered by conflicts driven by deep ethnic and religious hostility and by internal politics in which its own allies (Israel. 5. For most of the last 16 years.under Bill Clinton and George Bush -. Pakistan. In the face of terrorism.S. the early 1970s.nationaljournal. Winston Churchill wrote that in England. 4. Afghanistan. http://www. But frankly. America never ran the world (an illusion the left.com/articles/2010/02/03/the_end_of_diplomacy?page=full] MGM Back in the day. The world's gotten complicated.Kashmir. who help them adapt to the American weapons and equipment they receive. disasters and plenty of dysfunction during these years. personnel. the U. "there were wonderful giants of old. or course. Arab-Israeli peacemaking -." There's always a danger in idealizing what once was or seemed to be in order to make a point about the present. Miller. And it has done pretty well in managing the big relationships with Russia and Europe.America has been in a diplomatic dry patch. and the first Gulf War. these are the easy ones. achieving dramatic breakthroughs with spectacular secret diplomacy seems a world away. but there were moments (1945-1950.com/mubarak-s-departure-raises-toughquestions-for-u-s-israel-20110201) CJC Policymakers in Washington and Jerusalem have assumed for days that Mubarak would soon step down. Yemen.
Perhaps the Iranian regime will collapse or the Arabs and Israelis will do something good by themselves. The more sophisticated commentators in the West have been drawing contrasts between the older and younger manifestations of Islamism. only because Bush and company dwelt upon the "civil society" aspects. It exists only tissue of false promises. But the next several years are more likely to be tough ones for American diplomacy. and maybe the Obama administration will get lucky. Jordan. with the rhetorically bludgeoning Mohamed Badi -. and now. You don't have to be a declinist (I'm not) to see how far the image of American power has fallen. while belabouring three topics: Zionism. And that's very bad for a great power. Israel.well before they actually had the numbers on the street. along with everyone else. The mob is now electronically summoned and enhanced. Most old-world constitutions were written in blood (Canada's was unusual). One would be the civilian military order behind each existing autocracy. have rewritten many of the rules. Hezbollah. And there.realclearpolitics. It will not be available within days or weeks. or Iran for that matter. make North Korea play ball. or create genuine opportunities for success abroad. consciously resisting "one man. and elsewhere. And al Jazeera leaped in quickly to spread the word and excitement from there. It wasn't a Democracy is itself the loudest false promise being casually offered in the Middle East. There will not be a transition to democracy in Egypt. in Egypt. get the Arabs and the Israelis to cooperate. yes. That the existing Egyptian constitution is a defunct. “Democracy and the Mob”. February 17. Algeria. it makes success all that much harder. The latter prefers to raise the banner of Jihad. or rather. multi-party elections." arguably. and then very tenuously. Warren – 2/17 (David Warren.age 66. better marshal American power. but. And the United States has departed from the one model that has proven successful: the strong foreign-policy president empowering the strong secretary of state who rides herd over subcabinet-level envoys in real time and in close coordination with the president on strategy. we are asked to compare.html) CJC You cannot argue with a mob -. the other the Muslim Brotherhood. But if you don't have the right structure. in combination with partisan and sensationalized mass media. It is trying to play the forces loosed on Cairo streets and elsewhere as a bull. revised daily to keep up with the demands. age 29. http://www. for instance. It corresponded approximately to the reality. Whom should we trust? We have read much about those twittering "social media. about the aspirations of women. the social-media-savvy Moaz Abdel Karim. 6.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. to return to where I started. The former speaks sensitively but vacuously about pluralism in religion and politics. Instead. a new constitution. and neither is parliamentary by disposition. the Obama administration has created an empire of envoys with power concentrated in the White House but without real purpose or strategy. These latter have already created their parallel welfare and regulatory agencies. Forget the economic meltdown. Whether it's an inability to get tough sanctions from the international community against Iran. The demonstrations were certainly organized through them. It's still early. party elections. even a kind of judicial and legislative apparatus.. one time. the alternative is to write them in water. there's the issue of how the country organizes itself.after nearly a decade of bloodshed. A new bureaucratic flowchart won't replace skill and luck. America's currently fighting two wars where the standard for victory is not whether it can win but when it can leave. the world has gotten used to saying no to America without cost or consequence." which the younger generation of Islamists have mastered. but it won't last. or Islamist equivalents (Hamas. yes.may be conceded. yes. you can.com 116/148 Thursday File power of the small is being matched by the weakening of the big. nor contribute to the possibilities for mature and intelligent . one vote. with a cape of promises. humourless joke -. bring Tehran to heel. 2011. and so on).. their protection rackets. and Jews. which is what secretaries of state are supposed to do. more money for everyone! You cannot write a constitution in 10 days. this does not make it any easier to argue with. They became possible because social media gave people the sense of strength in numbers -. or push the Pakistanis to hit the Taliban and al Qaeda in a sustained way. Reforms.dictated by a dictator -. And the image that comes to mind isn't a terribly kind one: America as a kind of modern-day Gulliver tied up by tiny tribes abroad and hobbled by its inability to organize its own house at home." Even reduced to "free and fair multi- democracy remains unavailable for the foreseeable future. Yemen. Finally. and the actual "supreme guide" of the Muslim Brotherhood (with the infrastructure of the movement entirely behind him). And yet there was one thing to be said for it.com/articles/2011/02/17/our_incoherent_response_to_middle_east_ch aos_108923. in Iraq -.the choice is between feigned obedience and defiance -.and the Egyptian army chose to dispense with Hosni Mubarak last week. Staff. The nation's top diplomat (the secretary of state) seems to be everywhere and nowhere in terms of owning issues and finding a way to take on some of the nastiest challenges. only two "parties" are seriously organized. operating through the mosques. The Brotherhood and Military will prevent it either way. because in Egypt. and made limitations upon democracy fairly plain. The Internet. In the case of Egypt. . which has much of the world wondering about what kind of great power the United States really is.
com 117/148 Thursday File deliberation over the path ahead. From anarchy to totalitarianism is one Persian step.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. It instead creates a new and much broader field for anarchy. ***Uniqueness Ans.*** .
brought down the U.com/2011/POLITICS/02/02/sweep.cnn. We don’t have the influence to do anything in the region. “The Sweep: The risk of democracy in the Middle East”. Iran showed the U.us. supported by Syria and Iran. but he was also key to U. February 2. and its allies that it will remain defiant on its nuclear program in the face of tough sanctions. In Yemen. CNN Staff.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – N/U: Dip Cap Low US diplomatic capital is at an all-time low.S. Today.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS %3A+Politics%29) CJC the U.-backed government of Prime Minister Saad Hariri and installed billionaire businessman Najib Mikati as its choice for the job. 2011. CNN – 2/2 (Elise Labott and Josh Levs. At talks last month in Istanbul.egypt/index. has less leverage in the region than ever before.S.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 118/148 Cross-X. Turkey. http://www. anti-terror efforts in the country that harbors an active and threatening subset of al Qaeda. a strongman president has been ejected.S.S. ***Link Level*** . Lebanon is in the throes of a dangerous game of brinksmanship that threatens to send the country back into civil war after Hezbollah.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 119/148
Cross-X.com Thursday File
Iraq Aff – Link Turn
Withdrawing from Iraq saves diplomatic capital – shifts focus elsewhere while Iraq takes the lead. Scowcroft, 5-13-2010 [Brett, former US National Security Advisor, 2010 GLOBAL SECURITY FORUM, http://csis.org/files/attachments/100513_middleeast_panel_transcript.pdf]
Q: Chet Crocker, Georgetown University. A couple of 20,000-foot questions for a retired Air Force general and a screenplay writer. (Laughter.) Brent, you mentioned the phrase, “a nurturing presence,” and I wonder what kind of post-Iraq war, postAfghan war military footprint you see in that part of the world, and what role for our diplomacy? Are we going to be the lead actor on all the issues that we’ve been touching on – Israel-Palestine, India-Pakistan, and of course, Gulf security architecture, which David mentioned? So are we going to be the lead diplomatic presence and the lead
military presence in this region? And should this region continue to occupy 80 percent of our political and diplomatic capital around the world? Thank you. LT. GEN. SCOWCROFT: Chet, I think you’re the best one to answer that question. I would hope that we would back down a little bit from leadership in the region to, if you will, nurturing and cooperation and encouragement for the region to get itself together and to move in unison. It’s fundamentally a rich region. Iraq, for example, has huge natural resources. The right kind of encouragement could do a lot to turn Iraqi-Iranian relationship to one, at least, of toleration. I think Jordan is another problem, which is, in part, a regional problem. Aside from the issues of the East Bank, and so on, there are close to a million Iraqi refugees in Jordan. This is a terrible burden for a state without the natural resources that some of the others have. I think we can use our ability to organize and guide in a way which encourages the best instincts of the region without saying, we’ve dealt with these military problems; now we’re going to set the region
straight, because I don’t think we’re able to do that.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 120/148
Cross-X.com Thursday File
Afghanistan Aff – Link Turn
Afghanistan presence devastates dip cap. South China Morning Post, 2009 [Greg Torode, 12-3, "Will Obama's Afghan strategy play into China's hands?", Lexis] Obama's Afghan strategy - 100,000 troops and a withdrawal beginning in July 2011 - will demand costly intangibles and some are wondering whether it is here, in East Asia, that Washington will end up paying that bill. Quagmire in Afghanistan could further play into the hands of an emerging China that is fast
US President Barack challenging the strategic assumptions that have governed East Asia for decades. Even if the dramatic escalation of 30,000 extra troops goes smoothly, the military, political and diplomatic capital expended will be considerable. And it is
being spent by a fresh, young hopeful, but an exhausted warrior trying to restore his reserves of blood and treasure after two conflicts, and the worst economic crisis in a generation. Will Afghanistan divert Washington's attention from the more subtle but vital task of dealing with the rise of China and balancing ties across East Asia, where, for decades, it has been the primary military power? Will it divert the energies of US institutions just as they are supposed to be engaging China on an ever-broadening range of issues, from the
not environment and water management to freedom of navigation? Then there are the worst case scenarios. Would Afghanistan commitments mean the US could not respond fully to a military crisis in the region, say a conflict over Taiwan or the Korean peninsula? Afghanistan, after all, is now Obama's war. These are the questions being asked across
the region just weeks after Obama staged his first visit to set the tone for what he hopes will be eight years of complex engagement - deepening ties with China while boosting existing alliances and reaching
to out to new friends. No one is pretending China would create that crisis but some believe Beijing would quietly seek to exploit any perceived vacuum. Dr Ian Storey, a scholar at Singapore's Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, said a sense that the US risked bogging itself down in Afghanistan could embolden Beijing. "On a strategic level, it might reinforce China's perceptions that the US is a declining power," he said. "And I think that, in turn, could make Beijing more assertive in the region. We might see China being more confident about pushing the theme of a new multipolar world like they tried in the 1990s, a world where the US is more of a 'normal' power." Already, US military officials describe more frequent encounters with Chinese warships across the region, a presence expected to grow. On the diplomatic front, US diplomats and their regional allies find their Beijing counterparts increasingly assertive. While Afghanistan might force Washington to draw away from the Pacific theatre - its biggest presence - its important naval engagement with the region was unlikely to diminish, Storey said. "We can see the US is exhausted," one veteran Japanese envoy said privately. "Taking on fresh burdens in Afghanistan leaves us wondering about the response in a crisis. With the best will, it would be a great challenge ... they are already stretched." Professor Shi Yinghong, director of the Centre for American Studies at Renmin University, said China would now pay closer attention to developments in Afghanistan. Although China would avoid publicly commenting on Obama's Afghan decision, Shi said Beijing would be concerned no matter whether America won or lost the war. "It will be a very distant concern. Beijing will be more immediately concerned if the US loses the war, in this case, its ally Pakistan will be affected, and security in the region will be undermined," he said. "If the war is won, then Beijing will be uncomfortable to have so many US soldiers near its border." In practical terms, Beijing has appeared content to stand on the sidelines through the war to date. Repeated US requests to exploit bases on the Chinese side of the border for refuelling missions have been refused. More recently, US officials have requested an opening of the small but strategic Sino-Afghan border to allow troops and supplies to be ferried down the mountainous Wakhan Corridor. The issue was raised during Obama's recent mission to Beijing but has yet to be approved. No offers of hard military support is expected any time soon. Most analysts believe China is unlikely to want to be involved in a war led by US-dominated Nato forces rather than the UN. But some in the region believe Obama will not be easily diverted. Professor Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University, said Obama had made considerable gains in Southeast Asia compared with his predecessor. He has entrenched ties with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and has taken the risk of engaging Myanmar's junta. "Despite all the challenges he will face in Afghanistan, I think the track in this part of the world is set ... his administration has done more in a year than Bush did in eight years," he said. "We fully expect that will continue."
Investment in Afghan war is wasting Obama’s diplomatic capital – aff frees it up. Carpenter, 6-27-2010 [Dan, Writer and columnist for the IndyStar, “No credit for taking charge,” http://www.indystar.com/article/20100627/OPINION05/6270333/1039/OPINION05/No-credit-fortaking-charge]
Like Lincoln, President Barack
has found it necessary to change generals in the middle of a war. Unlike Lincoln, this
president seems unlikely to defeat the South. With Afghanistan, his chances of victory are roughly equal to Lincoln's, assuming that victory means a secure, friendly populace under the firm control of a government established under the auspices of the U.S. military. Even a gunboat diplomacy buff like George Will sees no hope or necessity for the Afghanistan expedition. Liberals are left pretty much in a quagmire, suffering through another political oil
splash on their man without reason to believe his handling of this affront has any bearing on the alleged business at hand. "Success" in Afghanistan is as remote to the vast majority of
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.com 121/148 Thursday File Americans (those without loved ones there) as Afghanistan itself. To the extent they discuss the
commander in chief as they stand in line for their iPhones, they talk in terms of his domestic war, the bone-deep conflict between a Northern urbanite and a devout resistance dominated by the South and Southwest. Recognizing the potency of right-wing sentiment, and the inconstancy of the so-called Blue Dog Democrats, Obama long ago adopted a strategy of cooptation. Assure the other side you share their narrowly defined basic values of patriotism and morality and middle-class preeminence, and hope they'll drop their guard against your more imaginative agenda. Because nobody dares run for president as an
antiwar candidate, Obama chose to label Iraq as the wrong war, leaving Afghanistan as the right war and obligating himself to prosecute that waste of lives, money and diplomatic capital. He played into the mass fantasy that global upheaval can be reduced to the mischief of a few terrorist bands. He threw in the bonus of a sort-of deadline for bringing the troops home. None of it has pleased North or South on this side of the proverbial water's edge. It
couldn't even spare him a bizarre cross-cultural kneecapping by his top general in, of all places, Rolling Stone magazine. Hardly a match for Lincoln's dark nights of the soul, I guess; but our much-maligned 16th president surely died with confidence that historians would vindicate him. He waged a terrible war that ended insurrection, ended slavery -- and ended. No American
war has taken longer to reach its end than the current one that Barack Obama purported to welcome. Its end is not in sight, and the absence of evil that it would bring about is something our visionary leader is unable to picture for us. Lincoln's eloquence about bereaved military families who "have
laid so costly a sacrifice upon the altar of freedom" can hardly be appropriated for a disjointed and deadly security operation for a corrupt and ineffectual foreign regime. The battle, then, is to save face on the home front. To show who is in command. It has to be an ill-fitting role for a man who sought to dial down his predecessor's emphasis on the military and offer an open hand to the non-Western world. Playing it is the price he has had to pay to be president. He can go ahead and break a leg, as they say in show business; but he'll hear little applause from South, North, or, when it comes to his chosen war, posterity.
and what role for our diplomacy? Are we going to be the lead actor on all the issues that we’ve been touching on – Israel-Palestine.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 122/148 Cross-X.000-foot questions for a retired Air Force general and a screenplay writer. (Laughter. India-Pakistan. “a nurturing presence. I think you’re the best one to answer that question. nurturing and cooperation and encouragement for the region to get itself together and to move in unison. which David mentioned? So are we going to be the lead diplomatic presence and the lead military presence in this region? And should this region continue to occupy 80 percent of our political and diplomatic capital around the world? Thank you. in part. Scowcroft.” and I wonder what kind of post-Iraq war. I think Jordan is another problem.org/files/attachments/100513_middleeast_panel_transcript. you mentioned the phrase. at least. which is.com Thursday File Iraq Aff – Link Turn Withdrawing from Iraq saves diplomatic capital – shifts focus elsewhere while Iraq takes the lead.pdf] Q: Chet Crocker. LT. Iraq. now we’re going to set the region straight. This is a terrible burden for a state without the natural resources that some of the others have. The right kind of encouragement could do a lot to turn Iraqi-Iranian relationship to one. It’s fundamentally a rich region. Aside from the issues of the East Bank. there are close to a million Iraqi refugees in Jordan. postAfghan war military footprint you see in that part of the world. we’ve dealt with these military problems. of toleration. and of course. Georgetown University. for example. 2010 GLOBAL SECURITY FORUM. SCOWCROFT: Chet. a regional problem. . I would hope that we would back down a little bit from leadership in the region to. because I don’t think we’re able to do that. I think we can use our ability to organize and guide in a way which encourages the best instincts of the region without saying. 5-13-2010 [Brett. Gulf security architecture. and so on. if you will. GEN.) Brent. http://csis. former US National Security Advisor. A couple of 20. has huge natural resources.
F. issues of . scheme: the Status of Forces Agreement ("SOFA"). and immunities." n19 This Comment focuses on an instrument essential to America's military placement On February 16. rights. the site of America's largest military base in Japan. demanded the "withdrawal of all U.. Fall. the more likely it is that United States diplomatic endeavors will be thwarted and its international reputation tarnished.. allowing us to pursue diplomatic endeavor Gher.S. status. which] has profound implications under United States and international law and raises . [troops] abroad to further [its] national security and foreign policy objectives[. 2001... 37 U. L. privileges. The United States has a long history of "sending . “Status of Forces Agreements: Tools to Further Effective Foreign Policy and Lessons To Be Learned from the United States-Japan Agreement”." n18 As the global community becomes more aware of Japanese dissatisfaction. Lexis] MGM a local assembly on Okinawa. University of San Francisco Law Review. . 227..S. Rev. JD graduate at University of San Francisco School of Law.. 2002 [Jaime. Marines on the island and the resignation of their commander.com Thursday File Japan Aff – Link Turn Withdrawing from Okinawa ends criticism of the US.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 123/148 Cross-X.
S. Lawyer and writer in the Vanderbilt Law School Journal of Transnational Law**. 119 Readers should be cautious not to overestimate the value of U. Culpepper 2010 (Brenton. “Congress’s Attempted Response to the World’s Demand for the Violence Against Women Act”. this Note does not mean to suggest that if Congress passes legislation that addresses gender problems in America. moral ethos would dissipate. 115 Professor Joseph Nye describes the above phenomenon as "soft power": "Soft power is the ability to get what you want through attraction rather than coercion or payments. gender equality) often serves to enhance credibility in an unrelated human rights arena (e. gender legislation advances U. create the loss of the legitimacy and credibility necessary to build soft power. image as a champion of gender equality as well as signaling that Congress takes its responsibility for fulfilling international human rights obligations seriously. "soft power grows out of our culture. In this way." and reclaiming legitimacy by addressing domestic gender-motivated violence as a human rights issue can communicate this cultural value. attitudes of distrust tend to fester and further reduce our leverage.S. May 2010. out of our domestic values and policies. The Vanderbilt Journal of Transnational Law. ***Internal Answers*** ." 116 Nye argues that "when American policies lose their legitimacy and credibility in the eyes of others. all of the damage currently spanning the U.in much the same way a President spends political capital to achieve policy objectives on Capitol Hill .S. http://web. which can . 120 In particular.com/scholastic/document?_m =235f2b6f28fe5116dc52324e38ebfe4c&_docnum=1&wchp=dGLzVlzzSkVk&_md5=bcef5cca117ffa071d3621 bd40b67ba6) Congressional activism on gender policy provides an avenue for shifting the image of the U.S. 113 This shift increases U." 117 "Problems arise for our soft power when we do not live up to our own standards. child labor). Congressional legislation serves the dual purpose of restoring the U.g. Certainly. from one of military hard power to a moral and diplomatic leader. foreign policy goals. credibility on gender equality issues. 118 Areas of legal and moral contradiction.S.S.lexis-nexis. LexisNexis.g. such as those present in gender policy. However.com Thursday File Link – Link Turn – South Korea K Aff Link Turn: US focus should shift from military power and towards gender policy. diplomatic capital.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 124/148 Cross-X. 114 Credibility in one human [*749] rights arena (e.S soft power interests." including international standards to which the United States committed. Such a change would significantly increase diplomatic capital.translate into success for U.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 125/148 Cross-X.” .html) CJC The standards taught “include a role for civilian influence over decision-making. “Also the people of Egypt would likely not accept it. Feb 13.” said Robert Springborg.” he said. 2011. Bannerman and others said. has had much influence over the decisions of the Egyptian military during the turmoil in Cairo and other major cities.” said Paul Sullivan. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. http://www.bloomberg. reporter for Bloomberg News. Springborg said he doesn’t think the U. California. “They are just not the types to want to do that. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. a professor of political economy of the Middle East at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey. “Public Praise.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt: No Influence US does not have influence over Egyptian military. “I think the military has looked after its own interests as the high command sees them.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military. a professor of economics at the National Defense University in Washington.S. The Egyptian military isn’t likely to get too involved in details of constitutional changes or get so comfortable that they would want to hang on to power.
“Public Praise. he said.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt: Aid =/= Influence Aid does not influence Egyptian military.bloomberg. they see it as compensation for the Peace Accords with Israel. “They see the aid as a partnership. http://www. 2011.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military.” .” Bannerman said.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 126/148 Cross-X.S. Gates and Mullen aren’t likely to press too hard. analysts said.S. receives. reporter for Bloomberg News.html) CJC The Egyptian military sees the aid it receives every year from the U. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. Feb 13. as recompense for its 1979 peace agreement with Israel and for basing and access that the U. As a result. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. “They’re smart enough to know that’s not how to get them to do it.
“The Sweep: The risk of democracy in the Middle East”.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – No Influence U. meeting with journalists Wednesday. “Egyptian Crisis Biggest Foreign Test Yet for Obama Administration”.us. it must be peaceful. the Obama administration has not delivered on the tantalizing promises it made since taking over. White House Chief of Staff William Daley. has zero influence over what happens on the ground in Egypt.com/article/SB10001424052748703960804576120064121963244.politicsdaily. Change in the region comes not from his encouragement but from the disaffected taking matters into their own hands. not only to show progress on solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict but to encourage democratic reform. He is the author of several bestselling books including "Inside the Asylum.” By that remark. http://www. “Egypt's Future Will Be Decided by the Military”." and "In the Words of Our Enemies. Babbin – 2/2 (Jed Babbin served as a Deputy Undersecretary of Defense under George H. Stone – 1/31 (Andrea Stone. http://www.unless the Egyptian armed forces choose to intervene may tilt Egypt into the radical Islamist sphere now dominated by Iran. February 2.com/2011/01/31/egyptian-crisis-biggest-foreign-test-yet-for-obamaadministratio/) CJC U.com/2011/POLITICS/02/02/sweep. But he did say one thing that will influence events there: that transition in Egypt "must be meaningful. Bush.realclearpolitics. This loss of influence is apparently misunderstood or. said. FEBRUARY 3. http://online.egypt/index. who .W.wsj. US does not have influence over the Middle East.S. Mubarak and moves to an interim government is not clear." Much of the White House response has been "reacting to the circumstances on the street and the knowledge we obtain. “White House Charts a New Plan”. February 2.html? mod=rss_Politics_And_Policy) CJC How the administration overcomes Mr. 2011. they know the outcome is out of their control. In his brief Tuesday evening remarks. 2011. America has lost the ability to influence the shape of post-Mubarak Egypt and it faces growing crises in another moderate Arab state. 1/31/2011. 2011. "The United States is really a spectator to a phenomenon that has taken on a life of its own.S. misunderestimated by the Obama administration and its media surrogates. Political Analyst for Politics Daily. DC or the New York Times' editorial boardroom. and it must begin now. he threw our lot with the demonstrators who seek Mubarak's immediate removal and made Mubarak's time to organize any transition even more limited than they were before. which has been solidly pro-American since the advent of King Abdullah's reign. to borrow a malapropism from a former president. In fact. US has zero influence over the outcome in Egypt.cnn." US is reactionary." Ottaway said. Wall Street Journal – 2/3 (JONATHAN WEISMAN And ADAM ENTOUS. Jordan. CNN Staff. President Obama did a good job of pretending that we have significant influence on the events in Egypt which will determine who rules in Mubarak's place.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 127/148 Cross-X.". is a 'spectator' Despite its financial sway. Whether his regime falls now or leaves of its own accord later will not be decided in Washington. http://www. Staff Writers. These dashed expectations Obama has created in the region are not just disappointing." he said. Neither will the choice of his successor.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS %3A+Politics%29) CJC Although it came into office hoping to seduce the region rather than fight it. CNN – 2/2 (Elise Labott and Josh Levs. .html) CJC Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's Tuesday promise to not run for reelection does not mean his government will survive through the scheduled September contest.com/articles/2011/02/02/egypts_future_will_be_decided_by_the_milit ary. "It's important to keep in mind that the United States is not going to change the course of events in Egypt or anywhere else. "A lot of this is totally out of our control.
com 128/148 Thursday File they have hurt U. to help in times of crisis.S. whose interests don't always align with Washington's. countries like Turkey and Qatar. are taking the lead. Now.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. credibility in the region and have had diplomats and Middle East experts scratching their heads about just what Obama's vision for the region is.S. . This troubled region has always looked to the U.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 129/148 Cross-X." and "In the Words of Our Enemies. http://www. the officers and men have some prestige in Egyptian society which they wish to maintain.html) CJC As one very senior retired Israeli officer told me.they are loyal to their officers. Bush.W. But that does not mean it will remain on the sidelines indefinitely. the Egyptian military proclaimed it would not use violence against the Cairo demonstrators.com/articles/2011/02/02/egypts_future_will_be_decided_by_the_milit ary. That is the most likely scenario if radical Islamic influence .*** . a more radical government rises in its place? Another senior American military source opined that the Egyptian military would not permit a radical Islamic regime like the Tehran Ayatollahs from taking control. But they will resist a radical regime. “Egypt's Future Will Be Decided by the Military”. it's entirely possible that a new Islamist regime could purchase the military's loyalty.from inside Egypt and emanating from Iran and Syria . 2011. But what if. We cannot expect that the Egyptian army will have become a democratic force as a result of our deep connections with it. A senior American military source who trained with Egyptian forces for years echoed those thoughts and added this: the Egyptian army's officer corps is loyal to Mubarak. the Egyptian army didn't become communist when it was heavily equipped (rather more than it needed) by the Soviet Union. He is the author of several bestselling books including "Inside the Asylum. at least up to a point. On Monday. ***A2: Counterterrorism*** ***Impact Ans. Though the enlisted men in Egyptian forces are very poorly paid .".com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – No Influence: Military US does not have influence over the military. February 2.manage to tip the balance their way. Babbin – 2/2 (Jed Babbin served as a Deputy Undersecretary of Defense under George H. In 1973 they even expelled the Soviets from Egypt. They can be baought by radical forces.again reflecting Egypt's weak economy and consistent failure to spend enough to create and train effective forces . But given Egypt's culture and its military's low-paid status. when Mubarak falls. That source emphasized that the Egyptian army's deep rooted culture and mentality will prevail.realclearpolitics. Though they aren't well-trained by US standards because they have little funding to train.
2 figure in al-Qaeda. Michele Dunne. Scott Carpenter. February 13. Washington Post – 2/13 (Mary Beth Sheridan and Joby Warrick. the Brotherhood "understands the extremists better than anyone else. http://www.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 130/148 Cross-X.S. Only last month. now chairman of ERG Partners. B." a democratic Muslim nation.com/wpdyn/content/article/2011/02/12/AR2011021203581.com Thursday File A2: Counterterrorism Impacts No risk of collapsing counterterrorism operations. Al-Qaeda opposes the kind of democracy that millions of Egyptians called for in the 18 days of mass demonstrations that led to Mubarak's toppling." Indeed. Turkey could fill the intelligence void." said the former CIA official. in revolutionary situations. ***A2: Spillover/Instability*** ." said J. "But the U. however. has good counterterrorism cooperation with governments of countries like Turkey. having suffered years of assassinations and other attacks by extremist Muslim groups. C. Al-Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood have been foes for decades. 21 people died in a carbomb attack on a Coptic Christian church in Alexandria. Turn: Egypt democracy regardless of the outcomes undercut Al-Qaeda. Washington Post Staff Writers. "The developments in Egypt are actually devastating to al-Qaeda. Many counterterrorism officials and Middle East experts are skeptical that al-Qaeda will benefit from Egypt's political upheaval. They note the country has every interest in combating terrorism. said Dunne. “Mubarak resignation throws into question U. a consulting firm.S. at least in the short run.washingtonpost. "maybe Egypt won't be producing terrorists" like Ayman al-Zawahiri. an Egyptian who is the No. another former State Department Middle East expert. a Middle East expert with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Egypt will continue its cooperation even with Muslim Brotherhood in power. the moderates are the first to go. argue that Egypt is likely to continue much of its cooperation. she said. They know that. Grenier predicted the relationship would continue even if the Muslim Brotherhood controlled the next government. 2011. 3 warrants: A. "The idea we can't do business with countries responsive to their citizens is a false one. and polls show that Egyptians overwhelmingly reject the group's brutal methods and rigid ideology.-Egyptian counterterrorism work”.html?hpid=topnews) CJC officials. If anything. agreed that the new Egyptian government will be much more sensitive to public opinion than Mubarak's regime. if Some former the future Egyptian government is less repressive. now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
” said Martin Indyk. the media. “Remember in 2003 to 2005. and by doing so. there’s no fear of the system collapsing in any way.” But that still is a long way from revolution. official involved in analyzing the Arab world. “I don’t see it as a brush fire spreading across the Middle East. “Containing Egypt: If Mubarak Goes. ambassador to Israel and current director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution.” said Ghaith al-Omari. where the unemployment rate is 13. The spillover or domino effect tends to be less than people fear it will.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 131/148 Cross-X. Former Jordanian Foreign Minister Marwan Muasher said. Overturning a government requires that a whole array of unusual circumstances align at once.its time of influence has passed. Leaders throughout the Middle East are pushing reforms quickly to prevent uprisings. which must increase popular participation in the decision making. “What we see is the king realizing that this is a serious public movement. “Egypt unrest threatens to spread”. which reflect our vision for comprehensive modernization and development in Jordan.nationaljournal. “Egypt has not been center of gravity in the Middle East for a very long time. but they weren’t going at all.” said Muasher. “The aristocracy is often the last to know their time is over. 2011. Politico – 2/1 (Ben Smith and Laura Rozen.” according to a statement.and that remained a one-off event for three decades. Does the Revolution Stop There?”. but we won’t be able to attain that without real political reforms.” said Barbara Bodine.com/news/stories/0211/48649. not least of which is a leader who turns and flees.that it sends reverberations throughout the region but without a wave of revolution to follow.the country that others looked to -. Hirsh – 1/31 ( Michael Hirsh is chief correspondent for National Journal. It is quite possible that the rapid toppling of two long-entrenched Arab dictators -." Bodine added. however. the last one to occur in the region had been the Iranian revolution -. that the move could trigger real change. the former ambassador to Yemen and a longtime specialist in Near East affairs. in terms of money.” There is no risk of spreading instability. both on its own right and when viewed in the regional context. And Abdullah has. The Iraqis were holding elections. he hopes to ensure that they do not demand anything more. "I think what you’re watching is this utter frustration. Hirsh previously served as the senior editor and national economics correspondent for Newsweek. “King Abdullah of Jordan and the Gulf Arab leaders have the ability to adapt.com Thursday File Aff – No Egypt Spillover Egypt uprisings will not spillover into instability in the Middle East. who is now vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. until Tunisia. King Abdullah is also running a police state that brooks no dissent. So were the Palestinians. former U. a change of government. but as soon as the Jordanian political establishment raised alarms. the king has a template — the . The king described economic reform as a “necessity to provide a better life for our people. “It has been a game-changer in how people see their governments and their ability to change them. In Yemen. the betting among some of the more sober-minded analysts of Arab and Middle East politics inside and outside the U.” Muasher developed a political reform plan five years ago.4 percent compared to Egypt’s 9.S. “What you had was this gerontocracy sitting on top of an ossified bureaucracy.first. Saudi Arabia is ostensibly rich and under rigid control. Marouf al-Bakhit. but it is going to have an impact across the Middle East. Egypt’s government is uniquely despised for precisely the reason that it has been so stagnant in its policies.” Beyond that. the arts.com/nationalsecurity/some-u-s-experts-argue-yes--20110131) CJC That’s the only certainty now as well -." Bodine said. http://www.7 percent (according to CIA estimates). “the king backed away from it. and so he gave the protesters what they were asking for. 2011. http://www. Tunisia’s Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. January 31. “It’s a serious wake-up call that reform can’t wait any longer. Political Reporters for Poiltico. government is that the turmoil in Egypt is likely containable politically -. Still.html) CJC Jordan’s King Abdullah II named a new prime minister.S. The Jordanian monarchy is still widely viewed as stable in spite of a large and restive population of Palestinian refugees and observers who said it is unclear whether the shake-up — unlike Mubarak’s new government in Egypt — represents a move toward real change.could spread quickly to other regimes. as Ben Ali did to the surprise of many experts. After all. in terms of education. more than Mubarak. namely. when people were predicting another Arab spring.no one really knows. though he added that “Jordan is different from Tunisia and Egypt. Ali Abdullah Saleh is presiding over terrible poverty and an unemployment rate that the CIA says runs as high as 35 percent. “So. In Jordan.” Indeed. February 1.8 percent) there than in Egypt. then possibly Mubarak -. There were a lot of predictions that got way ahead of where the facts were. who is of Jordanian descent and serves as advocacy director for the American Task Force on Palestine. but unemployment is higher (10.politico. late Tuesday and ordered him to “undertake quick and tangible steps for real political reforms.” said a U.S. pushed for reforms. while Egypt was once seen as the aristocracy of the Arab world -.” Abdullah’s statement also called for an “immediate revision” of the laws governing politics and public freedom. not that things were going badly. especially since economic discontent seems a central motivation.
Across the region. a senior Middle East researcher at the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel-Aviv University. There will be no spill over from Egypt creating instability. depriving Arab Bruce countries of their traditional monopoly over the flow of information. sink or swim? If we do not implement this political reform program now. whose small populations and immense wealth have typically allowed the regimes to defuse political protest — responded visibly. "What happened in Tunisia and Egypt has an impact on other Arab states. In the Palestinian city Ramallah.’” What is clear is that the turmoil in Tunisia and Egypt has roiled the region with an intensity not seen since the 1970s. In September 1970. government’s rhetoric about human rights and democracy might actually mean something. The new era will be one of peaceful activities. Miller. However. such as by the Iranian regime of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that crushed the popular opposition riots following the elections last year. the Western-backed authority said it would move swiftly to hold local elections. Maddy-Weitzman. "The era of tanks and security control is over. and after King Abdullah of Jordan sacked Prime Minister Samir Rifai and his cabinet. In Iran." Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh told his country’s parliament. http://www. 2011." Aish Ali Awwas. He said that new media made it more difficult for regimes to use hard force." During the 1970s and 1980s Arab rulers used massive force without hesitation to quell local opposition.com Thursday File Muasher plan. we will all go down together. And the evident American and European willingness to watch Mubarak fall may have prompted autocrats to re-evalute their own relationships. because there will be no backlash from other governments. "Everyone now is focused on the day after Saleh. said that Arab leaders were now opting for a proactive approach. including one Dutch national who participated in European protests. after what happened in Tunisia and Egypt. taking both concrete and symbolic steps. Dr. Today.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 132/148 Cross-X. ***A2: Iran Reform*** . February 2. President Mahmoud Abbas canceled the elections in 2009 for fear that his Fatah party would lose seats. where protesters have clashed with police. a Yemeni think-tank. Less than 24 hours after Egyptian president Husni Mubarak announced he would neither run again for office nor nominate his son Gamal. he added. governments have visibly responded to the fear of spreading turmoil: In Yemen.” said Human Rights Watch Washington Director Tom Malinowski. quickly giving in to the demands of change from their people. as opposed to representing a set of meaningless talking points they can ignore. "I will not extend my mandate and I am against hereditary rule. In 1982 iron-fisted Syrian forces leveled the city of Hama as President Hafez Al-Assad ruthlessly crushed a Sunni Islamic revolt. reportedly executing a record number of prisoners in January. President Ali Abdullah — who last week raised the salaries of government employees and soldiers — announced expanded payments to thousands of poor families and eliminated tuition for students at state universities. “Times are changing use of force in Arab world”.500 to its subjects to subsidize the cost of food. Even seemingly stable regimes — notably American allies like Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. thousands of civilians lost their lives. the Yemeni president on Wednesday announced he would not stand for another term." Awwas said that President Saleh's announcement was more likely an attempt to quell opposition rage than a sincere declaration he would step down.S. The opposition did not demand Saleh's resignation either. "They’re trying to defuse the atmosphere and recalibrate.allheadlinenews. "The important thing is he will not be able to bequeath the Presidency to his son. One day after the protests broke out in Egypt. leaders appear to be altering their tactics. head of strategic studies at the Sheba Center for Strategic Studies (SCSS). the government — which is publicly cheering Egyptian protesters — is also flexing its muscle. Kuwait’s government announced payments of more than $3. trying to avert the mistakes made by their Egyptian and Tunisian counterparts. Saleh's 32-year presidency will expire in 2013. but only reforms in the election system and a tougher government approach to corruption. The question is whether he will now have the basis to go to the East Bank establishment and say." Awwas said. abandoning plans to change the constitution enabling him to rule for life. Reporter.com/articles/7022549122) CJC The use of crushing military force to put down popular uprisings has lost its punch in the Arab Middle East. In both events. Miller – 2/2 (David E. more violence is sometimes used. King Hussein of Jordan sent tanks into Palestinian refugee camps to quash an armed insurrection. told The Media Line. ahead of a "Day of Rage" scheduled for Thursday by civil society groups." Maddy-Weitzman told The Media Line. “They’re dumbfounded by the notion that the U. ‘Gentlemen.
however.com/printstory. with Ahmadinejad and his government. I was in Tehran when the Tunisian president fled his country and after the Hezbollah-engineered collapse of the Lebanese government. “Tunis envy. Iranian supporters of the green movement were quick to disseminate catchy slogans: “Tunes tunest. One reason the green movement lost steam in Iran. of democratic movements. blue state dynamic in the United States than to the one-man rule of many Arab states. is the author of “The Ayatollahs’ Democracy: An Iranian Challenge”. challenges and debate among the three branches of government — with Ahmadinejad not always coming out on top. evidently. interests. apart from the severity of the government’s crackdown. Iran natunest. those hopes will most likely be dashed. at least among the majority of Iranians. better yet. indeed. That is not to say that there is no discontent or that the green movement — more a civil rights movement than the revolution that many in the West had hoped for — is completely irrelevant. is far closer to the truth. famously.S. the government has not shied away from gleefully reporting the Arab uprisings. Arab protesters could have only dreamed about what Iran has achieved politically in the past 30-plus years. If there is any secret desire among U.” It is not so different in Iran — except that popular opinion on U. It may be a stretch for the Iranian government to proclaim that Arab protesters are revolting against U. Majd – 1/31 (Hooman Majd. Arab countries have also had dictators who were supported. and is.” Certainly there may be Iranians who are envious of the ease with which the Arabs dispatched their leader. http://dyn.The media. however. Both before and after the contested 2009 election. But analogies are made not with the fetneh. Facile comparisons aside. an Iranian-American writer.” meaning Tunisia could. far greater. support — little of which trickles down to their citizens. which affect ordinary citizens’ quality of life. interests. The Iranian media covered both extensively. Rather.S. January 31. In the almost two years since. In the West. Persians are not Arabs and have little in common with them culturally. they are made with the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Iran has been more politically analogous to the red state. which swept the shah off the Peacock Throne and into ignominious exile. But Iran’s green movement had more in common with the Lebanese Cedar Revolution of 2005 than with the 2011 uprising in North Africa. Many of the green movement’s demands still resonate with Iranians — some even.com Thursday File Aff – No Iran Reform There will be no Iranian overthrow of government sparked from the Egyptian protests. was a lifetime dictator closely allied with Washington. But major change in Iran is unlikely to come . however. politically or even religiously. foreign policy — in the region. Iran has been subjected to U. Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Iranian exiles and many Western analysts have declared the country an unredeemable dictatorship. But Iran has been free of foreign influence — even if its citizens haven’t always agreed with the government’s policies. Iran couldn’t or. This Iranian narrative. sanctions. the extent of support that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did have — which even green movement leaders estimated to be in the millions. citizens see politics as usual: continuing disputes. had focused on protesters and demonstrators in 2009 and on the government’s heavy crackdown.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 133/148 Cross-X.cfm?uuid=D87B8D53-EA90-B6B4-DB70DE791553C0EC) CJC There has been a temptation in the West to tie the convulsions in Tunisia. hegemony as much as they are against dictatorship. But it is indisputable that the popular opinion of Arab states runs contrary to what we ordinarily call “U. In Tehran. But within Iran. as the 2009 post-election crisis is described. 2011. and is unlikely to reappear anytime soon.S. coddled and encouraged by Washington and who acted against the wishes of their citizens.S. there is not enough support against Iranian leadership. That’s not to say that the anti-Americanism displayed by Iranians is anything but anti-imperialism. But there was little indication that Iran’s youth were readying themselves for another challenge to authority. Their struggle since the fall of the shah for representative government has not depended on the removal of one man or one family. officials that Iran’s opposition green movement will now be motivated by what it inspired and rise up again to overthrow the Islamic system. It largely ignored. The West’s view that Iran has an overwhelmingly unpopular dictatorship and that the green movement sought to overthrow the political system is fundamentally wrong. much like Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak. Those large demonstrations are being cited as the sparks that ignited the imagination of all who live under repressive regimes in the Middle East.S. Iranians have a long history. Unlike Arabs. much like the Cedar Revolution. “Iran won't take cues from Egypt”. until now. and Iran’s youth are. But.politico. But again.S. Egypt and elsewhere in the Arab world to Iran’s 2009 green movement protests. Support for the supreme leader and the Islamic system was. more than a century. As with the Lebanese protests. the green movement’s large number of demonstrators gave the impression that the entire country was unified behind one goal.S. while Arab countries are key strategic allies and their governments receive billions of dollars in U. is that the government has been successful in portraying itself — at least to moderate supporters — as being aligned with Western interests. or sedition. is in line with the government’s. meanwhile. that turned out to be an illusion. the most pro-American — but not pro-U.
***A2: Muslim Brotherhood Bad*** .com 134/148 Thursday File about through street protests — which is why no one calls for them anymore. isn’t united in hatred of its leaders. Not while the whole country. unlike in the Arab states.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.
” Martin Indyk. D.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 135/148 Cross-X. an opposition group accused of terrorist ties. said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” yesterday. reporter for Bloomberg News. http://www. “I don’t think the military are going to let the Muslim Brotherhood take over and the Muslim Brotherhood know that and they’re keeping their heads down. .com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – No I/L: Muslim Brotherhood Muslim Brotherhood will not rise to control the government. and saying basically they don’t want to take over. Feb 13.html) CJC Other U.bloomberg..C. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. lawmakers have raised concerns that the Muslim Brotherhood. a former ambassador to Israel who is vice president for foreign policy at the nonprofit Brookings Institution in Washington. might seize control of the country. 2011. “Public Praise. they don’t want power and the military would NEVER allow it.S. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger.
thesunnews. But he said the Brotherhood's top leadership had decided on the creation of a party.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 136/148 Cross-X. This guts their extremist internal which are critical to their impact story. 2011.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – Brotherhood Won’t Run No Internal link – Muslim Brotherhood will not run for election. a prominent Brotherhood figures.Associated Press reporters.html#storylink=mirelated) CJC The Brotherhood announced Tuesday that it would form a party once promised freer laws are in place." spokesman Mohammed Mursi said in a statement on the Brotherhood website. They are eager to have a political party. its time for unity. “Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood plans political party”. "The Muslim Brotherhood group believes in the freedom of the formation of political parties.com/2011/02/14/1981307/egypts-us-envoy-says-mubarakmay. http://www." he said. in my opinion we need a national consensus. Feb. said the movement would not run any candidate for upcoming presidential elections. acknowledging that such a move would be too controversial. 14. Its time for solidarity. Sun News – 2/14 (LEE KEATH and HAMZA HENDAWI . . "We are not going to have a candidate for the upcoming presidential elections. Essam el-Arian.
Indeed. Activism and Political Change in Egypt. can best be summed up: Hey.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS %3A+Politics%29) CJC Rosefsky Wickham. when the group was founded in a smoky coffeehouse in 1920s Cairo. 2011. The political scientist Barrington Moore once famously posited: "No bourgeoisie. And some Muslim Brothers have participated in the recent protests.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – A2: Muslim Brotherhood Bad Muslim Brotherhood does not represent a threat to transition to radical Islam in Egypt. As a result. The Atlantic's Robert Kaplan describes the group as a "community self-help organization.S. though their role and influence remain unclear. arguing that the Brotherhood is less interested in seizing power and calling the shots than it is in spreading its message and influencing policy. no democracy. for a democratic coalition to come to power in Egypt it has to make political room for religious groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood. an opposition candidate for president. http://www." The Muslim Brotherhood is not a threat to US interests. secure foreign aid and snap up White House invitations. candidate in political science at Yale University. no democracy. CNN Staff. an associate professor of political science at Emory University and notes that the Brotherhood is an umbrella organization that encompasses different views and trends. But Washington cannot wish away their widespread support among Egypt's religious classes. U.com/news/opinion/forum/2011-02-01-column01_ST2_N. and nonMuslims. The threat posed by Islamists seizing power is more often than not a crutch used by autocrats to safeguard their positions.S. as the country's largest opposition movement. These fears are overblown. Other experts believe the Brotherhood will grab power if given the chance. but to reform Egyptian politics by cleaning up corruption and releasing political prisoners. “The Sweep: The risk of democracy in the Middle East”. True. any grassroots reform coalition in Egypt must win the Brotherhood's support. The Brotherhood also suffers from an image problem.htm) CJC The United States has played a role of wait-and-see as protests have raged across Tunisia and Egypt. We have seen this in spades since 9/11. Indeed. given its offshoots with ties to terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda and its alleged role in the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in 1981. the movement drifted from the fiery rhetoric of past enlistees such as al-Qaeda deputy Ayman al-Zawahri— or even the anti-American theologian Sayyid Qutb — to make room for liberal values. as they have with Hamas in Palestine or Hezbollah in Lebanon. And the bulk of its membership comprises moderates committed to peaceful relations with Egypt's neighbors. we may not be perfect.cnn. http://www. Nor is it clear they'd install an Iran-style theocracy." What we are seeing is the Arab world corollary: No Islamist representation. the alternative is worse. Their turns are overblown rhetoric without specific facts about the Muslim Brotherhood. That isn't a bad thing. Rosefsky believes it will. their primary aim is not to roll back women's rights or install an Islamic caliphate (much less a Taliban-style haven for terrorists). 'Islamist' fears overblown”.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 137/148 Cross-X. but it is no longer the defiant anti-system movement it was in the past.com/2011/POLITICS/02/02/sweep.usatoday.us. its orientation was hardly pro-democratic. the group does have a presence among the masses. The key question is whether the Brotherhood will continue to exercise self-restraint when the Mubarak regime falls. 2/1/2011. Though technically illegal. including Israel. Their relationship vis-à-vis the U. but trust me. Carrie author of "Mobilizing Islam: Religion. policy still feels . Beehner – 2/1 (Lionel Beehner is a fellow with the Truman National Security Project and Ph. when presidents from Pakistan's Pervez Musharraf to Egypt's Mubarak played up the threat of radical Islamists at home to secure more goodies from Washington — namely billions of dollars worth of aid and military hardware — and retain power. has won the Brotherhood's support.D. some foreign policy observers are urging caution in calling for regime change or immediate elections. Mohamed ElBaradei." Even though its members support sharia law.egypt/index. It is more popular than Egypt's liberal opposition. CNN – 2/2 (Elise Labott and Josh Levs. Islamic role is essential But let's face it. There is concern that a party inhospitable to American interests — namely the Muslim Brotherhood — could fill a power vacuum were President Hosni Mubarak to be tossed from office like Tunisia's Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. “In Egypt. February 2. He is also a member of USA TODAY's Board of Contributors. But after being banned in 1954.
they would not have thrown their support behind ElBaradei. but whether he will accept them. Moderate Islam is an essential part of democracy in the Middle East —Washington needs to start reading its own memos. so too will the Muslim Brotherhood be part of a future — and. And he must." President Obama pledged in his June 2009 speech in Cairo. We cannot avoid free elections because of the threat of Islamist parties. ." Max Boot of the Council on Foreign Relations wrote recently. The United States. Indeed. "This cycle of suspicion and discord must end. so too do we demonize parties with a religious bent. the only way to find out would be to let them take over. "Unfortunately. If the Brotherhood wins in a landslide. Egypt is not post-Shah Iran. Post-9/11 paranoia about radical Islam has made too many Americans allergic to the "I" word in political movements — an untenable position in the Middle East as the U. but if the Brothers were hell-bent on installing an Iranian- style theocracy.com Thursday File hamstrung from the memories of Iran in 1979. whether now or later this year. itself has acknowledged in practice. Just as the Taliban will be included in whatever future government of Afghanistan finally sticks. that could be preferable to propping up an unpopular dictator. yes.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 138/148 Cross-X. "Whether the Brotherhood would in fact try to impose such a (theocratic) regime is unknown. Let us not forget that America's two most recent nation-building efforts have resulted in the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and an Iraqi constitution that defines the country as an Islamic Democratic Republic. The question is not whether the Muslim Brotherhood will seek to join ElBaradei's coalition. This isn't Iran Also. just as we tend to oversentimentalize the secular opposition candidates as saints. There are no colorful or anti-American religious clerics like Ayatollah Khomeini waiting in the wings. democratic — Egypt.S. should back elections there." Maybe. meanwhile. a secular technocrat.
When I asked Dr. Mubarak. he retorted that the United States and Mr. But here’s the real deal. or wars with other democracies. “If people met in a cafe and talked about things the regime didn’t like. said of Egypt on Monday. Erian about this. blasted the Brotherhood’s willingness to participate in parliamentary elections and reject nuclear arms. at least as many Egyptians see it. John Boehner.” People in the West frequently conflate the Brotherhood and Al Qaeda. Americans and Europeans have repeatedly expressed fears of the Muslim Brotherhood. “But you can’t close mosques. the Brotherhood’s importance will rapidly fade. from which you are banned to possess. And its failure to support the initial uprising in Cairo on Jan. And because the Brotherhood itself is not monolithic — it has many factions — it could well . The Brotherhood realized that in addition to being late. Gamal Abdel Nasser and Anwar elSadat all faced the same problem that Hisham Kaseem. the Brotherhood counts perhaps some 100. 2011. notably its stance against Israel. Such support as it does have among Egyptians — an often cited figure is 20 percent to 30 percent — is less a matter of true attachment than an accident of circumstance: the many decades of suppression of secular opposition groups that might have countered it. the Muslim Brotherhood may have gained an opportunity. even many Egyptians suspect that they share a common end that is alien to democracy. the former diplomat and Nobel Prize winner. Mubarak had conspired after Sept.” Many people outside Egypt believe that the Brotherhood gains political influence by providing health clinics and charity for the poor. are problematic for American interests. Yet in 83 years it has botched every opportunity. In January 2006. And according to Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh. Erian told me. “You forget about the rule of Shariah.”. Kaseem told me. Ayman al-Zawahri.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss) CJC AS Egyptians clash over the future of their government. which fear them as the bogeyman. “Egypt’s Bumbling Brotherhood”. however.” Tony Blair. But it is because democracies tolerate disparate political groups that they generally don’t have civil wars. http://www. Obviously the Brotherhood wants power and its positions. is the author of “Talking to the Enemy: Faith. Dr. if only to protect their businesses from government disapproval. A Brotherhood spokesman. the University of Michigan and John Jay College. a former member of the Brotherhood’s Guidance Council.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 139/148 Cross-X. it might be backing the wrong horse. told Al Jazeera. Moreover. Essam el-Erian. “Israel must know that it is not welcome by the people in this region. Ever since its founding in 1928 as a rival to Western-inspired nationalist movements that had failed to free Egypt from foreign powers. many ignored him and few rallied to his side despite the enormous publicity he was receiving in the Western press.” Mr. Although originally the Brotherhood was organized into paramilitary cells. Many of the other clinics are Islamic in orientation simply because most Egyptians are Islamic. “You also have others. Erian said. a city of 18 million. he would just shut down the cafe and arrest us. the House speaker.” The previous day. And although their means are very different. In Egypt today.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – A2: Muslim Brotherhood Takeover Muslim Brotherhood does not have the ability to take control. Dr. Atran – 2/2 (Scott Atran. the Brotherhood will probably have representatives in any freely elected government. a newspaper editor and human rights activist. You “falsely affiliated with Islam. King Farouk. notably the Muslim Brotherhood. ElBaradei strode into Tahrir Square. the group has only six clinics in Cairo. Kaseem said. the Brotherhood did not arrive at this historical moment with the advantage of wide public favor. an anthropologist at France’s National Center for Scientific Research. the Muslim Brotherhood has tried to revive Islamic power. Nonetheless.com/2011/02/03/opinion/03atran. This has made it a target of Al Qaeda’s venom. so the Brotherhood survived. It might be able to recover lost leverage by showing its organizational tenacity in resisting the attempts to repress the demonstrators. who would take this in a different direction. The street. Mr. Brotherhood and the (Un)making of Terrorists. This error was compounded when the Brotherhood threw in its lot with Mohamed ElBaradei. “It’s too early to even discuss whether ElBaradei should lead a transitional government or whether we will join him. Only a small minority of the protesters in Tahrir Square joined its members in prayers there (estimates range from 5 percent to 10 percent). “Political groups support ElBaradei to negotiate with the regime. “You don’t just have a government and a movement for democracy.” If Egyptians are given political breathing space. February 2.nytimes. The wealthier businessmen who often sponsor them tend to shun the Brotherhood. adding that “the street” knew the truth.” Dr. the former British prime minister. When the army allowed hundreds of Mubarak supporters and plainclothes policemen through barricades on Wednesday to muscle out protesters. welcome the Crusaders’ bases in your countries and acknowledge the existence of the Jews who are fully armed with nuclear weapons. “In this uprising the Brotherhood is almost invisible. today it forswears violence in political struggle. manifests little support for the Brotherhood. But the very poor in Egypt are not very politically active. described playing out under Mr.” he said in vilifying the group. 11 to “brainwash” people into thinking of all Muslim activists as terrorists. 25 has made it marginal to the spirit of revolt now spreading through the Arab world. expressed hope that Hosni Mubarak would stay on as president of Egypt while instituting reforms to prevent the Muslim Brotherhood and other extremists from grabbing power. Their evidence is not supported by facts on the ground in Egypt and the military will check back and ensure a peaceful transition. “but not in America and Europe. the former leader of Egypt’s Islamic Jihad and Al Qaeda’s leading strategist.” Mr. The British.” But when Mr.” This kind of flip-flopping makes many Egyptians scoff.000 adherents out of a population of over 80 million. On Tuesday. Kaseem said. and few Islamic slogans or chants were heard.
their interests are mostly secular. an open press. although that may reflect a vain hope of using that time to broaden its popular support enough to reach a controlling plurality.” Mr.” urged Mr.” both of which in recent decades have had coups on the heels of democratic elections.com 140/148 Thursday File succumb to internal division if there really were a political opening for other groups in Egypt. ***A2: Suez Canal*** . the problems of violent extremism and waves of emigration that America and Europe most fear from this unhappy region could well fade as its disaffected youth at last find hope at home.Q. the intelligence chief and new vice president. they are connected and they will get power in the end. a representative Parliament.” If America’s already teetering standing among Egyptians and across the Arab and Muslim world is not to topple altogether. of 30 wouldn’t go down the same path as Mubarak because he would understand that the people of Egypt who are out in the streets are no longer apathetic. independent of the Brotherhood or any old guard opposition. Though in one sense it happened overnight.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. What we are seeing in Egypt is a revolt led by digitally informed young people and joined by families from all rungs of society. Egyptians are a pretty savvy lot. Mubarak responsible for the violence and privately inform the Egyptian Army that it cannot support any institution that is complicit. The more common assessment even among democracy advocates is that the military will retain control — Omar Suleiman. Hardly anyone I talked to believes that democracy can be established overnight. Mubarak now — and over the next decade real democratic reforms will be instituted. the United States must now publicly hold Mr. as it so promisingly began to do over the past week.S. many of its young proponents have long been working behind the scenes. But there is little reason for the United States to fear a takeover by the Muslim Brotherhood. Kaseem. “Egypt is missing instruments essential to any functioning democracy and these must be established in the transition period — an independent judiciary. Kaseem said. “They are only bungling things with calls for immediate reforms and against the Brotherhood. “If you try to push democracy tomorrow we’ll end up like Mauritania or Sudan. Even a military leader with an I. who insisted that he is pro-American and abhors the Brotherhood. We are handling this beautifully. “Let the U. stay away. If Egypt is allowed to find its own way. will be acceptable to Egyptians if the army gets rid of Mr. A military in control behind the scenes — for a while — is probably the best hope for a peaceful transition.A. The Brotherhood leadership talks of a year or two of transition.
economically." he said. whatever.S. . “U. James Mattis said. the head of U. I've not received any orders.reuters." he said." Gen.com/article/2011/02/01/us-egypt-usa-mattis-idUSTRE71086W20110201? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29)CJC The United States would respond "diplomatically. I've not requested or directed anything like that. militarily. I just can't imagine the motive to shut that down.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – US Will Keep Suez Canal Open US is prepared to intervene to keep the Suez Canal open. "When you look at the fiscal impact of that (closing the canal) on whoever is in a position of authority in Egypt. Reuters – 2/1 (Staff. Feb 1. sees Suez Canal closure as inconceivable”. http://www. "The short answer is no. Central Command said on Tuesday. These issues do not call for a military solution right now. speaking at a London event hosted by the Policy Exchange think tank. economically.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 141/148 Cross-X. "Were it to happen obviously we would have to deal with it (Reuters) diplomatically. but that to me is hypothetical and I would defer to the political leaders." he said. "There's no reason right now for any shift in military forces or anything like that.S. Mattis said the United States had no plans to re-order its military forces in the region because of instability in North Africa. 2011. He had been asked if the United States would be prepared to act if there were any disruptions to the key shipping channel because of instability in Egypt. militarily" to any closure of the Suez Canal although such an event seems inconceivable.
and they are going to need it in a hurry. February 1. http://dyn. some mitigating factors. 2011. They don’t need a big spike in gas prices to go along with a 20 percent hike in food prices.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 142/148 Cross-X. a Washington think tank.”. “There’s no leverage in cutting off a key earner. “Whoever is governing is going to need money. “Egypt: Worst scenarios for W. The canal and pipeline together control only about 3 percent of the world’s crude oil supply. POLITICO – 2/1 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico and Mike Allen is the chief political correspondent for Politico and Laura Rozen is a reporter at POLITICO.H.com/printstory. which guards the canal — badly needs the revenue it generates. a Middle East expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.politico. however. And Egypt — especially the army.” said former State Department and Defense Department official Anthony Cordesman.cfm?uuid=DE7516BA-D472-D8EDD73BCE853D37CED6) CJC There are.” .com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – A2: Oil Cut-Off No Impact and No Risk that Oil gets cut off regardless who is in control in Egypt.
000 barrels of oil per day from Egypt to other parts of the world. “Egypt's unrest revives debate about U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 143/148 Cross-X. which currently runs at reduced capacity. which carries 3. If the Suez Canal. “turning a 15-hour trip into a 600-hour trip. which carries about 600.2 million barrels of oil per day to other countries.” Book said. would come if protests in Yemen affected oil transport through the nearby Strait of Bab el-Mandab. southbound flows would still be blocked. but manageable. Energy and Environmental Reporter for The Hill. however.” Book said. an analyst at ClearView Energy Partners.” ***A2: Aid Cuts*** . reserves from International Energy Agency countries could cover any losses. Book said. But the analyst warned that widespread protests across the Middle East that shut down key oil supply routes could pose a threat. http://thehill.com Thursday File A2: Suez Canal Shut Down = No Impact There is no impact to shutting down the Suez Canal. were to be shut down for a short time.S. it is only if there is a spill over in the Middle East. Despite the length in transit. Restuccia – 1/31 (Andrew Restuccia. oil dependency”. If the Suez Canal closure lasted too long. said the biggest concern is how unrest in Egypt might affect the transport of oil. “In the event of a shutdown.” The real problems. is whether countries like Iran and Venezuela “seize upon tight global oil system capacity to air grievances or issue proclamations. Book said the result would be “nontrivial. However. The other issue of concern. Book said. 01/31/11. oil would have to be rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope at the tip of Africa.com/blogs/e2-wire/677e2-wire/141329-protests-in-egypt-spur-talk-of-oil-prices-drilling) CJC A leading energy analyst said Monday that a short-term shutdown of the Suez Canal would likely not result in major problems. oil flowing northbound could be diverted to Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude oil pipeline. Kevin Book.
There will be no cuts. leaving scant time for big policy changes. director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Feb 2." said Jon Alterman. 2011. 2011. Staff.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Republican aides doubt there will be any major cuts in military aid to Egypt in the House version of an upcoming bill to fund the government from March through September 30." Alterman said. http://www. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC "I have a hard time seeing the politics come together in order to have a bipartisan and bicameral agreement on cutting aid to Egypt soon. http://www. Staff. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell. The bill should be on the House floor by the week of February 14.reuters. House . a House aide said. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”. not enough time to cut it from the budget. Feb 2. "I don't think Americans have a clear view yet (of events in Egypt) and therefore it's hard for Congress to have a clear view.reuters.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 144/148 Cross-X.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – No Aid Cuts Aid will not get cut anytime soon. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell.
Change Egyptian policy toward Israel will change inevitably.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 145/148 Cross-X.-designated terror group that rules Gaza. http://www.com/news/world/2011-02-14-1Aegypt14_CV_N. 2/14/2011. Abdel Fattah said. referring to the U. And if the government decides to open border crossings between Egypt and the Gaza Strip. Dorell – 2/14 (Oren Dorell. For years.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt Policy -> Israel Inev.S.htm) CJC Egypt's policy toward Israel will change no matter who gains power. Reporter at USA TODAY. “Ideology shadows fight to rule the new Egypt”. ***A2: Israel*** ***Offense*** ." he said. "we will support Hamas like others will. Most agree that clamped down on arms to Hamas and opposed Hezbollah.usatoday. Even liberals say they will pay more attention to the Palestinians than Mubarak did. Mubarak The Brotherhood wants to put Egypt's peace treaty with Israel up to a referendum.
” he said. 2011.”. Gregg. “This makes it clear that Israel and Palestine have to come to a significant peace agreement — sooner rather than later because there is going to be tremendous instability in Egypt for the foreseeable future.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 146/148 Cross-X. “Egypt: Worst scenarios for W. February 1. for one. http://dyn.com/printstory. thinks .H.cfm?uuid=DE7516BA-D472-D8EDD73BCE853D37CED6) CJC the looming shift away from the Camp David Accords could be a spur to peace negotiators. POLITICO – 2/1 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico and Mike Allen is the chief political correspondent for Politico and Laura Rozen is a reporter at POLITICO.politico.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – Turn: Peace Process The failure of the Egypt-Israel Peace Accords would spark Israel-Palestinian deal.
one wonders whether the Iranian people might succeed if the regime were robbed of its ability to point fingers at the West.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 147/148 Cross-X.S.S. does take a forceful position. It is partly about that. Even as the United States was waging a war partly in the name of democracy.S. Resolving Washington’s dilemma in its relationship with authoritarian rulers in the region will not be addressed by White House speeches or even the elimination of U. many democracy advocates want to see a more forceful U. The plan moves away from a large military footprint in the middle east allowing for more democratic reforms. In any case. one has to wonder whether these events could have taken place even earlier had there not been the diversion of the Iraq War — and whether these upheavals might have swept away Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship without shots being fired from the outside. January 31. But others. One reason the Tunisian revolution succeeded in toppling the president without major ramifications for the U. for its own sake. If and when the U. as if American words in the middle of an upheaval that is not our doing can affect the outcome in Egypt and turn the tide of Arab public opinion in favor of the United States. Whether President Barack Obama publicly calls for President Hosni Mubarak to resign will very likely have little effect on Arab and Egyptian public opinion. national discourse that the anger with the United States is only about its support for authoritarian governments in the region. policy in the region in the past few years. must side with people standing for self-determination and freedom.S. http://dyn. “Upheaval in Egypt: Not about the U. many of whom were happy to get Washington’s support to throw off their dictator but were still unhappy with U. it is that these historic and indigenous events in Egypt must not become about the United States.S.cfm? uuid=D88A5DBE-DB47-2BCB-9B6BD331D950FDD0) CJC Ever since Egypt’s public demonstrations calling for regime change began. and from the U. and even many . Events in Egypt are mostly out of our control. anger with the United States on foreign policy issues — particularly Iraq and the Arab-Israeli conflict — and deep suspicion of U. It will quite likely be mocked by Hassan Nasrallah of Hezbollah — just as he mocked France for how quickly it abandoned its client after Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali’s departure from Tunisia. Washington is likely to be seen as attempting to control events — moving to pre-empt the public will and engineering an outcome to its liking. This includes places like Iran. it will continue to prefer cooperative regimes over a public will that goes against it. we must have no illusion about how it will be spun by many Arabs.S. who are prepared to risk their lives for them. the vast majority of the Arab public passionately opposed it. When the Bush administration used the Iraq War as a vehicle to spread democratic change in the Middle East. is that the revolt was not viewed as directly related to the West.politico. voice on behalf of regime change in Cairo. But let’s have no illusion about the effect of what we say on the outcome in Egypt — or throughout the Arab world. is fighting wars in the Middle East and is invested in the outcome of the ArabIsraeli conflict. There is a sense in U. as indicated by the contestation over the 2009 presidential election. intentions put the genuine democracy advocates in the region on the defensive. where there is obvious public opposition to the clerical regime.com Thursday File Aff – Withdraw = More Democratic Reforms Large military foot print in the middle-east drives repression and will spark continued violent backlash against oppressive regimes. like the Al Jazeera network. The outcome has been that. America’s inability to engineer political outcomes in the region — or even predict them — has been demonstrated in events ranging from the outcome of the Iraq War itself to contests for power in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories. The Iraq War was most telling.S. every year since the Iraq War began. As long as the United States has a heavy military footprint in the region.S. foreign aid. Even in Iran. The United States support of repressive regimes because they are willing to support US policy means more oppression of people to keep them quiet. As we witness the remarkable and inspiring events in both Tunisia and Egypt.com/printstory. To be sure. It’s not up to the United States to determine who the next president of Egypt will be. The United States. including those in places supporting an Egyptian revolution. are already asking whether the Egyptian upheaval was instigated by Washington — with some “evidence” presented. 2011.”. polls of Arabs revealed their sense that the Middle East is even less democratic than before. foreign policy. But it’s deeper and more complex — as we have seen in the attitudes of the Iraqi people.S. Telhami – 1/31 ( Shibley Telhami is Anwar Sadat professor for peace and development at the University of Maryland and a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Washington has been debating what the White House should or should not say. But if there is any lesson to be learned from Tunisia.
intelligence to intelligence. . security service to security service.com 148/148 Thursday File governments counseled against it — largely for fear of public opposition. which made them even more insecure. this is a moment for a bigger assessment of U. But we insisted and we rewarded and we threatened — and got our way with most. reacted in the way they knew best: They became even more repressive. regardless of who rules at the top. The net result was that those governments that went against the will of the overwhelming majority.S. Today. Given that repression now appears to be failing. driven by strategic U. our closest institutional relationships in the Arab world. These agencies are the anchors of repression in the region.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. are military to military. policy in the region — beyond what happens in Egypt. priorities.S.
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