Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 1/148

Cross-X.com Thursday File

Egypt – Harvard/Berkley
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley..................................................................................................................1 ***Notes***.....................................................................................................................................5 ***1NC Shell***...............................................................................................................................6 *****Uniqueness*****..............................................................................................10 *****Uniqueness*****....................................................................................................................10 UQ Ext – A2: Dip Cap Low..............................................................................................................11 UQ Ext – A2: Military Control = N/U...............................................................................................12 UQ Ext – Focused Diplomacy.........................................................................................................13 Diplomacy Focus Key....................................................................................................................15 UQ Ext – Military Diplomacy..........................................................................................................16 UQ Ext – US Has Influence Over Military.......................................................................................18 UQ Ext – Timeframe – Next Few Months Key.................................................................................19 UQ Ext – Dip. K2 Election Timing...................................................................................................20 *****Links*****.......................................................................................................20 *****Links*****..............................................................................................................................20 A2: Link Turns: Timing – (A Must Read).........................................................................................21 2NC Link Magnifier - Focus............................................................................................................22 2NC Link Magnifier – Perception....................................................................................................23 2NC Aid Link Magnifier..................................................................................................................24 Ext – Aid Link: A2 Aid Cuts Now.....................................................................................................26 Ext – Aid Link: Econ Spark Instability.............................................................................................27 2NC Links – Plan Kills Coercive Diplomacy ..................................................................................28 Link – General...............................................................................................................................30 Link – Military Change...................................................................................................................35 Link – Afghanistan ........................................................................................................................36 Links – Asia....................................................................................................................................39 Link – Japan...................................................................................................................................41 Link – South Korea.........................................................................................................................42 Link – Iraq .....................................................................................................................................43 Link – TNWs ..................................................................................................................................48 Link – Turkey.................................................................................................................................51 *****Internal Links*****..........................................................................................51 *****Internal Links*****.................................................................................................................51 2NC Ext - Dip Cap Finite – Egypt...................................................................................................52 2NC Ext – Dip Cap Finite – Middle East..........................................................................................53 2NC Ext – Dip Cap Finite...............................................................................................................54 2NC Ext – Diplomatic Capital Key – Plan Cost................................................................................56 Military K2 Secular Transition........................................................................................................57 A2: Military Not Relinquish Power.................................................................................................59 Dip. K2 Transition – Military...........................................................................................................60 Sustained Diplomacy Checks Extremist Rise.................................................................................62 Dip Cap Checks Spillover..............................................................................................................63 A2: No Influence............................................................................................................................64 *****Impact Scenarios*****.....................................................................................64 *****Impact Scenarios*****...........................................................................................................64 ***Suez Canal Shell***............................................................................................64 ***Suez Canal Shell***..................................................................................................................64

Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.com 2/148 Thursday File Close Suez Canal = Price Shocks..................................................................................................66 Egypt K2 Oil Markets.....................................................................................................................67 Egypt – Military K2 Suez Canal......................................................................................................68 Impact Magnifier: Saudi Arabia.....................................................................................................69 ***Leadership Shell***..................................................................................................................70 Ext - Leadership............................................................................................................................74 ***Terrorism Shell***..............................................................................................74 ***Terrorism Shell***....................................................................................................................74 Egypt Intel = Best.........................................................................................................................76 Egypt – Counterterrorism..............................................................................................................77 Yemen Spillover............................................................................................................................78 Spillover -> Yemen = Terrorism....................................................................................................79 ***Instability Shell***.............................................................................................79 ***Instability Shell***....................................................................................................................79 Ext – Instability..............................................................................................................................81 ME Diplomacy – Bahrain & Yemen................................................................................................82 Yemen Counter Terrorism.............................................................................................................83 ***Bahrain Shell***.................................................................................................83 ***Bahrain Shell***........................................................................................................................83 Bahrain – 5th Fleet........................................................................................................................87 Bahrain Spillover -> Gulf Oil States...............................................................................................88 Egypt -> Bahrain...........................................................................................................................89 ***Israel Relations Shell***.....................................................................................89 ***Israel Relations Shell***............................................................................................................89 Israel Brink....................................................................................................................................92 A2: Brotherhood Not A Threat.......................................................................................................93 ***Muslim Brotherhood***......................................................................................93 ***Muslim Brotherhood***.............................................................................................................93 Muslim Brotherhood Pushing For Control .....................................................................................94 A2: Muslim Brotherhood Not Win Enough Seats............................................................................95 Egypt – Influence K2 Avoid Islam Rise...........................................................................................96 Brotherhood = Price Spikes...........................................................................................................98 Brotherhood = Econ Collapse........................................................................................................99 Brotherhood = ME Instability......................................................................................................100 Muslim Brother Hood Pushing For Power.....................................................................................101 Brotherhood = No MEPP..............................................................................................................102 Transition K2 Check Muslim Brotherhood....................................................................................103 A2: Muslim Brotherhood Not Threat............................................................................................104 ***Foreign Aid***.................................................................................................104 ***Foreign Aid***.........................................................................................................................104 Congress Cut Aid.........................................................................................................................105 Aid: Peaceful Transition K2 Prevent Cut......................................................................................106 Aid K2 Leverage..........................................................................................................................107 Aid K2 Arms Sales.......................................................................................................................108 Aid Cut Quickly............................................................................................................................109 Egypt – A2: No Aid Cut – Budget.................................................................................................110 Egypt – Aid On Table...................................................................................................................111

Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.com 3/148 Thursday File ***Iran***............................................................................................................111 ***Iran***....................................................................................................................................111 Diplomacy = Iran Transition........................................................................................................112 ***** Affirmative Answers*****..............................................................................113 ***** Affirmative Answers*****...................................................................................................113 ***2AC F/L***..............................................................................................................................114 ***Uniqueness Ans.***..........................................................................................117 ***Uniqueness Ans.***................................................................................................................117 Aff – Egypt – N/U: Dip Cap Low....................................................................................................118 ***Link Level***...................................................................................................118 ***Link Level***...........................................................................................................................118 Iraq Aff – Link Turn......................................................................................................................119 Afghanistan Aff – Link Turn ........................................................................................................120 Iraq Aff – Link Turn......................................................................................................................122 Japan Aff – Link Turn...................................................................................................................123 Link – Link Turn – South Korea K Aff............................................................................................124 ***Internal Answers***.........................................................................................124 ***Internal Answers***................................................................................................................124 Aff – Egypt: No Influence.............................................................................................................125 Aff – Egypt: Aid =/= Influence.....................................................................................................126 Aff – Egypt – No Influence...........................................................................................................127 Aff – Egypt – No Influence: Military..............................................................................................129 ***Impact Ans.***.................................................................................................129 ***Impact Ans.***........................................................................................................................129 ***A2: Counterterrorism***...................................................................................129 ***A2: Counterterrorism***.........................................................................................................129 A2: Counterterrorism Impacts.....................................................................................................130 ***A2: Spillover/Instability***................................................................................130 ***A2: Spillover/Instability***......................................................................................................130 Aff – No Egypt Spillover...............................................................................................................131 ***A2: Iran Reform***...........................................................................................132 ***A2: Iran Reform***..................................................................................................................132 Aff – No Iran Reform....................................................................................................................133 ***A2: Muslim Brotherhood Bad***........................................................................134 ***A2: Muslim Brotherhood Bad***.............................................................................................134 Aff – Egypt – No I/L: Muslim Brotherhood....................................................................................135 Aff – Egypt – Brotherhood Won’t Run..........................................................................................136 Aff – Egypt – A2: Muslim Brotherhood Bad..................................................................................137 Aff – Egypt – A2: Muslim Brotherhood Takeover..........................................................................139 ***A2: Suez Canal***............................................................................................140 ***A2: Suez Canal***...................................................................................................................140 Aff – Egypt – US Will Keep Suez Canal Open...............................................................................141 Aff – Egypt – A2: Oil Cut-Off.........................................................................................................142 A2: Suez Canal Shut Down = No Impact.....................................................................................143

......................................................................................................................................145 ***A2: Israel***...................................................147 .....144 Aff – Egypt Policy -> Israel Inev............................................................................145 ***A2: Israel***..............................145 ***Offense***..........................................................................................................................................com 4/148 Thursday File ***A2: Aid Cuts***... Change...........................143 Aff – Egypt – No Aid Cuts......................................................................................146 Aff – Withdraw = More Democratic Reforms..............................................................................................................145 ***Offense***.........................Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X...................................................................145 Aff – Egypt – Turn: Peace Process..................................................................................................................................................................................143 ***A2: Aid Cuts***.............................................................................................................

S. . D. You are not limited to Egypt after the 1NC. and Impacts. Carriers in the Gulf. Awesome Timeframes. Sometimes it is just good to be on the side of truth in the world. B. Internal Link. All of the Uniqueness evidence and Internals take into account the fact that Mubarak has left power and is only talking in terms of US diplomatic response to the transition to elections. A. Nothing in the Status Quo or Affirmative can top the timeframe of the Link. All three happen very quickly. Impact Scenarios: All of your favorites are right there at your finger-tips from the general Econ impacts from Oil Price Shocks to hyper-specific scenarios about U. this argument puts you there. C. The internal link evidence about our focus on Egypt is fantastic right now. US diplomatic response in the Middle East as a result of the Egypt Crisis.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 5/148 Cross-X.com Thursday File ***Notes*** Why you should choose to run Egypt. you can branch out because the US is forced to deal with all of the Middle East turmoil at once as a result of Egypt allowing you to diversify and magnify your impacts. All of these impacts feed from one source.

Australia released a defense White Paper that is concerned primarily with the potential decline of U. is headed to Israel on a scheduled visit.S. is already familiar with the players of the council. Gates spoke with Egypt's defense minister." But the official added. previously served as an ambassador to Jordan. The discussion. 3 official at the State Department. http://s3. Burns.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss %2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS%3A+Politics%29) CJC The Obama administration launched into diplomatic outreach throughout the Middle East Saturday. A big unanswered question is the future of Vice President Omar Suleiman.. State Department officials acknowledged it has been hard to reach members of the new Egyptian government during the last 48 hours. http://www. the No. and will visit Jordan as well. seeks diplomatic clarity in Mideast”. spokesman Geoff Morrell said." one senior State Department official said.S. (Insert Specific Link or read this generic evidence) Decreasing military deployments kills diplomatic influence." He spoke anonymously Washington (CNN) -due to the sensitivity of the ongoing diplomacy. Gates' sixth phone conversation with the Egyptian Defense Minister since the situation in Egypt began. "They will have to clarify who is now the head of the government. Clinton also is dispatching Under Secretary William Burns to Jordan to discuss "the historic events in Egypt as well as a range of other regional and bilateral issues. VP for Foreign and Defense Policy Studies and Director of the David Institute for International Studies at the Heritage Foundation. Recently. 2009 [Kim. The congressman briefed reporters Friday afternoon on the condition they not use his name. "It's been very difficult to get information through normal diplomatic channels given the rapid changes. the official said. 6-1. Adm.S. Michael Mullen. And you can imagine." the congressman said. Field Marshal Mohammed Hussein Tantawi.d. Current efforts will succeed. B. U.cnn. "Whomever the Egyptians chose. where America’s ability to hedge against the growing ambitions of a rising China is being called into question by some of our key Asian allies.S. CNN – 2/12 (Elise Labott and Barbara Starr. we can have a relationship and deal with that person. This is already on display in the western Pacific Ocean. Diplomacy between the United States and Egypt been effectively cut off. senior officials said. Diplomacy is tentative requiring focused and persistent efforts to maintain diplomatic contact. is the first high-level contact between the two governments since President Hosni Mubarak resigned. The ability of the United States to reassure .com/2011/POLITICS/02/12/us. on Saturday.S. Holmes.com/thf_media/2009/pdf/sr0052. it is still unclear who is handling diplomatic issues. “Sustaining American Leadership with Military Power”. and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is expected to call leaders in the region this weekend. US diplomacy has been launched throughout the Middle East to deal with the transition of power to the military and future transition to democracy. they don't want to sit down with an American right now when they've got their whole world kind of collapsing on them as we speak. military primacy and the implications that this decline would have for Australian security and stability in the Asia–Pacific. "We have to figure out the pecking order. even as it tries to determine the composition of the Egyptian military council and the line of authority in the future Egyptian government." a State Department statement said. Ph. Ambassador to Egypt Margaret Scobey has had some contact with the foreign ministry.mubarak/index. officials said. February 12. These developments are anything but reassuring. “U. While the U.pdf] MGM The consequences of hard-power atrophy will be a direct deterioration of America’s diplomatic clout. and Egyptian officials said they expected the two sides to resume broader and more regular consultations this weekend. U. Top State Department officials are contacting every Arab foreign minister.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 6/148 Cross-X. 2011.amazonaws. CNN Reporters. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. U. said a Republican congressman familiar with the administration's efforts.com Thursday File ***1NC Shell*** A. and Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Mullen had some contact with their military counterparts.S.

Al Ghad. Dorell – 2/14 (Oren Dorell. monarchs and sheiks have presided over restive populations from which militancy and terrorism have been exported for years. "Egyptians are very mellow.com 7/148 Thursday File friends. sipped sparkling fruit juices and dined on baked shrimp. Bishop Grewell is a research associate with PERC. Only by building a full-spectrum military force can America reassure its many friends and allies and count on their future support. they will stretch the resources necessary to deal with traditional international issues. and ensuring access to foreign economies. surrounded by clapping onlookers. are wooing supporters. 427) CJC Foreign policy is a bag of goods that includes issues from free trade to arms trading to human rights. Politicians such as Nour. 2001 2 Chi." D. deter competitors. 82. senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. supporting our allies. Int'l L. Anderson is executive director of Political Economy Research Center ("PERC")The Center for Free Market Environmentalism. secretary general of Nour's liberal party. and defeat enemies does not rest on the strength of our political leaders’ commitment to diplomacy. . Liberals and Islamists have announced that they intend to seek power through elections that. Increased environmental regulations could cause countries to lessen their focus on international threats of violence. Parties that largely were banned by Mubarak. Fall.htm) CJC Leaders of political parties that dominated the protest movement disagree. http://www. and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. Many in the West are hopeful that a democratic Egypt. Egyptians want a government that adheres to the universal declaration of human rights agreed to by the United Nations. Laying the groundwork for elections The Muslim Brotherhood was founded in Egypt in 1928 . will herald a new age in a troubled region where Arab despots. J. fish and stuffed crab under a clear night sky beside the roof-top swimming pool. Each new issue in the bag weighs it down. members of Egypt's liberal opposition gathered Saturday night at the penthouse apartment of former presidential candidate Ayman Nour. it is critically important that the United States focus its diplomatic efforts on issues of paramount importance to the nation. former deputy director of the State Department's Near East & South Asia Intelligence Office. such as the sale of ballistic missiles or border conflicts between nations.com/news/world/2011-02-14-1Aegypt14_CV_N. 2/14/2011." Nawara said. according to Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq." Egyptians of all political persuasions celebrated the departure of Mubarak. "The shorter the time before new elections. Bozeman. said Wael Nawara.usatoday. . has argued that the United States should welcome the upheaval as a chance for the Arab world to modernize and allow moderate forces to gain the upper hand. “Ideology shadows fight to rule the new Egypt”. C. coerce belligerent states. Quick elections would result in a radical Egypt. under Mubarak. As Schaefer writes. the most populous nation in the Middle East with a population of about 82 million. "The Muslim Brotherhood don't like music or dancing. Others say democracy in Egypt could help radicals gain power. who was forced out of the presidential palace Friday by the military and was staying at the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheik. Diplomatic capital is finite – each new issue trades off with existing issues Anderson & Grewell – 01 (Terry L. lessening the focus on other issues and even creating conflicts between issues. such as the Muslim Brotherhood. "Because diplomatic currency is finite . who spent years in jail for challenging Mubarak's repressive regime. where a man danced with a gyrating woman wearing a hijab. US influence over the Egyptian military is critical to ensure there is enough time for liberal political groups to organize to prevent a takeover by the Muslim Brotherhood in elections. J." said Wayne White.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. Reuel Marc Gerecht. gesturing to a crowd listening to blaring music outside Al Ghad's downtown office. the better the chance for the already well-organized Brotherhood to maximize its gains. Stanford University. Montana. People talked about a new dawn for Egypt and what it took to get to this point. these priorities have been opposing hostile domination of key geographic regions. securing vital resources. Reporter at USA TODAY. In the upper-class neighborhood of Zamalek. Traditionally. Only by retaining a “big stick” can the United States succeed in advancing its diplomatic priorities. As countries must watch over more and more issues arising in the international policy arena. are looking forward to running candidates openly. had been rigged for years. it rests on the foundation of a powerful military. Nour talked as his guests sat on gilded armchairs.

February 2. The liberal parties say they also want the United States — which sends about $1.5 percent of global oil production. This will revolutionize the landscape in the most combustible part of the world. The Suez Canal is one of the engineering marvels of the modern world. and some of their goals are similar to those that the Brotherhood supports. and all out war. which had been packed with provisions to prevent free elections and opposition parties. A leading Muslim Brotherhood member said the Suez Canal should be immediately shut down. But the youth can mobilize more. military — should remain in charge of Egypt until a civilian government is running smoothly. The Brotherhood is "a cause for concern. and place formidable levers of power in their hands. radical enemy. moderate ally to volatile. both want to crack down on corruption and a culture of bribery that shopkeepers. the U. On Monday. she predicted. The Brotherhood's Abdel Fattah says the group wants Egypt's army to quickly pave the way for civilian rule. 3 million barrels of oil and fuel products pass through the canal and the Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline. Every day. Hilliker – 2/2 (Joel Hilliker Columnist. That amounts to 2. the Muslim Brotherhood will likely end up in power—which means the Middle East’s most populous and influential Arab country is about to lurch from relatively stable. It will embolden extremists like nothing since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. About two thirds of that energy is traveling north toward Europe. Ayman Al-Zawahiri. The shock waves will be massive. oil jumped to over $100 a barrel. Energy Department still classifies it as one of the few World Oil Transit Chokepoints. Of particular concern is oil.0. Middle East Instability. Its strength. collapsing European Economies. investors were spooked at even the thought of a disruption in energy production and shipping." Makram-Ebeid said. which is ruling the nation for now.com/?q=7928. Muhammad Ghannem made the provocative statement to an Arabic-language Iranian news network. war with Israel.2 billion cubic feet of soil with picks and shovels—to this day it remains a conduit for roughly 8 percent of global seaborne trade. Nawara says Egypt's military — which has long had close ties to the U. Western optimism notwithstanding. when Cairo was home to Jewish and Christian refugees from Europe. It inspired al-Qaeda founder Osama Bin Laden and his deputy. oil price shocks. a Coptic Christian and former member of the Egyptian parliament. is a result of Mubarak's repression of liberals. we got a glimpse at one important reason why. It accounts for 5 to . but the Brotherhood wants investment strategies to abide by Islamic law. Egypt's Armed Forces Supreme Council. as well as changes to the constitution that would lay the groundwork for elections soon. On Sunday the Brotherhood got half of what it wanted.S. Clearly. It’s a prime example of why Europe is watching events in Egypt so intently. The liberal parties and youth groups that kept the protests going for 20 days have a platform. It spawned a radical cell that assassinated Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in 1981. It cuts through 118 miles of Egyptian countryside.5 billion in aid to Egypt each year — to use its influence to ensure Egyptian officers continue reforms.0) CJC Almost immediately after angry Egyptians took to the streets last week.5 million laborers moved more than 1. A sharia-based state would be "totally refused" if put to a referendum in Egypt. It was the first time oil hit triple digits since the record spike to $147 two years ago.S." E. connecting the Red Sea with the Mediterranean. Initially completed over 140 years ago—after 1. "They can mobilize the street. which also traverses Egypt. surrounded in her office by wooden furnishings and framed oil paintings that hark to the early 20th century.” It was a chilling peek at what might happen once the dust settles from these popular protests sweeping Egypt. businesses and ordinary Egyptians say has made daily life here difficult. thus linking Europe with East Africa and Asia.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. Allowing the Muslim Brotherhood to gain control of Egypt would result in a closure of the Suez Canal. “Will the Muslim Brotherhood Close the Suez Canal?”. Nawara says sweeping out the corrupt members of the regime is a first step toward encouraging foreign investment in Egypt that will lead to jobs. He also said Egyptians should “be prepared for war against Israel. Control over the Suez Canal is definitely one of those levers. he said.com 8/148 Thursday File as a strict Islamic alternative to Western influences. but not a cause for fearful reaction.6537. plans to push for a greatly expanded student exchange program with the West so young Egyptians can learn how to development the economy. announced that it had dissolved Mubarak's handpicked parliament and suspended the constitution. 2011. http://thetrumpet. Though Egypt exports none itself. an Egyptian and former member of the Brotherhood. "You counter (the Brotherhood) by allowing new parties to form without any restriction. Mona Makram-Ebeid." Makram-Ebeid said. who were not allowed to organize while the Brotherhood was able to do so in mosques and through its teachers and charities. For example.

though. a nuclear escalation. an associate professor at an Abu Dhabi energy-research center.” Italy’s foreign minister. The European empire described in biblical prophecy—and presently coalescing. extremely oil-dependent times. European oil prices have soared—even higher than those in America. told the Wall Street Journal..com 9/148 Thursday File 7 percent of Europe’s oil consumption. Worse. Islamist Middle Eastern power (“the king of the south”) of a German-led European empire (“the king of the north”). the existence of an arsenal of mass destruction in such an unstable region in turn has serious implications for future arms control and disarmament negotiations. marking its unmistakable loss of status as a great power—and the fulfillment of a biblical prophecy that it would lose control of its sea gates. as a result of trade in the Mediterranean and therefore with Europe. or should any Arab nation fire missiles against Israel. Seymour Hersh warns. These differences would result in a far different outcome than the war in 1956."(42) Russia and before it the Soviet Union has long been a major(if not the major) target of Israeli nukes. It was a massive defeat for Britain in particular. as the Iraqis did. On one side would be the Muslim Brotherhood. 2002. the players would be somewhat different. The canal was the West’s most prominent asset in the Middle East: At the time. In what has proven to be a terrible blunder. Our editor in chief has speculated about the likelihood of oil factoring into this provocation: Iran could well gain control over supplies to such an extent as to be able to drive prices to uncomfortable highs.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. Israel's current President said "The nuclear issue is gaining momentum(and the) next war will not be conventional. an organization sure to prove even more aggressive than Nasser was (at one time. and European supply—and global prices—would be “affected tremendously. The New York Times reported on the same possibility: “While [oil] prices are set globally. delaying delivery times and markedly increasing costs. in Daniel’s prophecy. It is widely reported that the principal purpose of even the threat of nuclear war. Already this past week. beholden to Third World opinion. “People talking about the closure of the Suez Canal are talking about a collapse of the state. would be a surging. a full four fifths of Western Europe’s oil was passing through it.org/articles /0203/0331steinbachisraeli. heating oil and other distillates refined in the Middle East and shipped via the canal and pipeline” (emphasis mine). “This is one of the reasons why Egypt’s stability is fundamental for the economy too. the Suez Canal was once before at the heart of a war. in these economically strained. “This in turn could cause Europe to quickly unite into the most powerful economic bloc in the world. Steinbach. Investors are concerned that Egypt’s instability makes ships passing through the canal more susceptible to attack.) Israeli nukes aimed at the Russian heartland seriously complicate disarmament and arms control negotiations .” he wrote in the Trumpet’s December 1994 edition. however."(41) and Ezar Weissman. France.000 miles around Africa.” Dalton Garis. nuclear targeting strategy. The prospect of a Muslim Brotherhood government gaining control over this asset—punctuated by the explicit call for its closure by a prominent member—makes it easy to imagine a militant Egyptian government again using the canal to provoke a European power.htm Meanwhile. and Should war break out in the Middle East again. Clearly. http://wagingpeace. F. Oil tankers transporting Middle East oil westward would have to travel the extra 6. (43) (Since launching its own satellite in 1988. the links between Iran and Egypt will be strong and deep by that point—so much so that Europe will feel compelled to eliminate them both in a stroke. which relies heavily on jet fuel. Nevertheless. And. it actually tried to assassinate Nasser). Britain and Israel responded to Nasser’s provocation by combining forces to invade.” Daniel 11:42 tells us). In the end. Longtime Trumpet readers are well familiar with the end-time prophecy in Daniel 11—set to be fulfilled soon—of a “push” by an Iranian-led.” Remember. a likelihood Barclays Capital warned of this week. MIDDLE EAST WAR WILL PRODUCE GLOBAL NUCLEAR CONFLAGRATION.S. spy secrets. the immediate impact of any interruption would be felt primarily in Europe. In July 1956. a ceasefire was imposed. The United Nations. which it is in our interest to avoid at all costs.. is the prospect of a radical. it violently overthrows Egypt in the process (“and the land of Egypt shall not escape. even amid financial troubles—is a voracious economic power. Colonel Gamal Nasser had taken part in a coup against the Egyptian monarchy in 1952 and then overthrown the president two years later. and control of the vital Suez Canal was yielded up to Egypt. and unimaginably ferocious in securing the energy and other resources it needs to fuel itself. he seized control of the Suez Canal. said Monday.. in a purposeful display of Arab strength. This time. the United States broke from its British ally and came out firmly against the action. And on the other. rather than a fading Britain. when a unified Europe wipes out Iran. Europe has significantly reduced its dependence on Suez. the Suez Canal remains very significant strategically. Israel no longer needs U. It is important to note that. In fact. Franco Frattini.S. On the other side were the canal’s European owners. current conditions resound with echoes of that history. One could be forgiven for thinking that Ghannem’s call to close the canal was calculated to panic Europeans. unified Europe. anti-West government taking over Cairo and shutting the canal down altogether. On one side was an Egyptian leader with a vision of militant pan-Arabism that put him at odds with European colonial powers. once unthinkable except as a last resort. would now be a strong probability. " Jonathan Pollard's spying for Israel was to furnish satellite images of Soviet targets and other super sensitive data relating to U. also dissented. Disrupt these shipments. That’s the last thing a continent mired in economic problems wants. Since that event.

the unilateral possession of nuclear weapons by Israel is enormously destabilizing.the deepening Middle East conflict could trigger a world conflagration. In the words of Mark Gaffney. complicity) is not reversed soon.S. at the very least.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 10/148 Cross-X. ". if the familar pattern(Israel refining its weapons of mass destruction with U.. and dramatically lowers the threshold for their actual use.for whatever reason. if not for all out nuclear war.." *****Uniqueness***** .com Thursday File and.

which has massive undeveloped fields of petroleum and natural gas." said Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg. http://www. no country is too small to partner with the United States. “Can Clinton remake U. allies in Europe.com Thursday File UQ Ext – A2: Dip Cap Low Clinton efforts have restored credibility to American diplomacy. "That our credibility and leadership were shot. February 16.the idea that there was an American decline. diplomacy?”.cnn. and deepened relationships with traditional U. either because we were too unilateral or we weren't dealing with what we needed to deal with. Labott – 2/16 (Elise Labott.S. CNN Senior State Department Producer. Even as she managed a reset with Russia.com/2011/POLITICS/02/16/clinton. That narrative is beginning to fade. she also traveled to the tiny Pacific island of Papua New Guinea.S.html?iref=allsearch) CJC For Clinton." . "These capital investments helped us deal with what was the biggest problem that we came in facing -. 2011. expanded ties with China.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 11/148 Cross-X.sweep/index.

it’s moved into martial law and where it goes is now subject to debate.asp? cu_no=2&item_no=415614&version=1&template_id=57&parent_id=56) CJC There was a note of caution in the background. has long seemed resistant to change. “This is just the end of the beginning. going.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 12/148 Cross-X. GONE”.” said Jon Alterman of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. it praised Mubarak for resigning “in the interests of the nation” and the “martyrs” who died protesting. Striking the even-handed note the military has maintained throughout the crisis. Gulf Times – 2/11 (Daily Newspaper published by Gulf Publishing & Printing Co. 2011.” US officials familiar with the US-sponsored Egyptian military say Tantawi. the higher military council said it would take measures for an interim phase and hoped to realise people’s hopes.com/site/topics/article. Doha. He has been defence minister for more than 20 years with a past rooted firmly in the old guard’s ruling elite. . 11 February. Mubarak’s veteran defence minister. are ready to permit a democracy -.especially since the hitherto banned Islamist Muslim Brotherhood is one of the best organised forces. http://www.com Thursday File UQ Ext – A2: Military Control = N/U Mubarak step down just beings a new round of diplomacy with the military to ensure the transition. however.gulf-times. In a statement. “Going. 75. over how far the military under Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi. Qatar. “Egypt isn’t moving toward democracy.

but so far the country is sending "the right signals." but "there are certain universal principles we adhere to. He drew a contrast between the demonstrations in Egypt and those in Iran. we don't believe in violence. February 11. "America can't dictate. for a "transition that is credible in the eyes of the Egyptian people. "We are obviously concerned about stability. “Obama's strategy was to pressure Mubarak without intruding”.com/news/politics/la-pn-news-conference-obama-20110216.S. no champagne toasts on the Truman Balcony like the one Obama hosted after Congress passed his healthcare overhaul last year.' " Obama also argued that change was an ongoing process. LA Times – 2/11 (David S. faces critical test of influence on Egypt”.S. 2011. “Obama praises Egypt. it will happen because people come together.latimes.0. February 13.A. talks budget at news conference”. 'Let us look at Egypt's example as opposed to Iran's. 2011. A senior administration official suggested Friday that the opposition should be satisfied with Mubarak's departure and other concessions.latimes. which have been stifled by the government.3805635.0." Obama said in the wake of the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak and the takeover of government by the army." Obama said Egypt is going to require help in developing democratic institutions. "We have sent a strong message to allies in the region. we don't believe in coercion. Cloud and Paul Richter. "Real change in these societies is not going to happen because of terrorism. Memoli and Michael Muskal.%20Times%20-%20Politics%29&utm_source=feedburner) CJC Obama at his most eloquent.0. lauding Egyptian demonstrators who peacefully "bent the arc of history toward justice included a pointed message for the military leaders who now were in charge.latimes." There were no celebrations at the White House.com Thursday File UQ Ext – Focused Diplomacy Egypt still requires US diplomacy and regionally an increased role currently to deal with rising wave of protests to reassure allies. each country has its own traditions. LA Times Staff Writers. A White House aide said: "This is hardly over. Los Angeles Times. But State U. LA Times – 2/13 (Peter Nicholas." he said." the president said. http://www. "Obviously. he warned them. "Each country is different. "The world is changing. trying to keep the pressure on. http://www. Obama posed a plan for United States policy.story? page=2&utm_medium=feed&track=rss&utm_campaign=Feed%3A%20latimes%2Fnews %2Fpolitics%20%28L.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 13/148 Cross-X. The administration has been busy making calls to senior Egyptian officers.5736229." US must continue to keep the pressure on the Egyptian military to ensure a smooth transition to elections. Los Angeles Times Reporters.story? track=rss) CJC The question-and-answer session was Obama's first solo press conference since late December and gave reporters a chance to question the president on economic issues and to more fully probe the president's views on the situation in Egypt and other prodemocracy movements throughout the Arab world." Noting that a wave of protests has spread across the region." Obama said people should have a right to express their opinions in public. and say there are clear limits to Washington's influence on key players in Cairo." But he also Diplomats know the situation is volatile and could easily spin out of control if they lack focus of their influence in Egypt." and the issue is to "get ahead of change.5580994. "What we have seen so far is positive.'' It was once more. there is still a lot of work to be done in Egypt itself.story?track=rss) CJC diplomats also acknowledge that events could still easily spin out of control given Egypt's lack of experience with democracy. http://www. LA Times – 2/15 (Michael A. “U. He would be watching.com/news/politics/lafg-egypt-us-20110212. February 15. 2011. "This opens the door for them to begin a full dialogue." Obama said.com/news/politics/la-fgegypt-obama-strategy-20110213." he said. .

requiring Egyptians to now build a democracy almost from scratch.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.3805635.'s fight for racial equality in the United States.story?track=rss) CJC The Obama administration got what it said it wanted when Hosni Mubarak surrendered power. Tom Malinowski.S. requiring time to develop and nurture institutions that will give the country a stable and inclusive political process. Obama made it clear that the U. Los Angeles Times Reporters.S. and laying out a clear path to elections that are fair and free. 25 and some of the epochal political movements of the 20th century: Gandhi's nonviolent struggle for India's independence. Now it must deal with another daunting task: coaxing the country's new military rulers to deliver genuine democratic reforms they have resisted for decades. said that the Obama administration was already reaching out to other Middle Eastern allies to warn that they should respond to calls for reform to avoid the same sort of upheaval seen in Egypt. faces critical test of influence on Egypt”.com 14/148 Thursday File Department officials warned that political reform will be a "medium term" undertaking. as well as cooperating on counter-terrorism efforts. In a seven-minute address from the White House. ." "That means protecting the rights of Egypt's citizens. It provides Egypt with $1. Obama appeared to reach out to the military in his White House address. commending the army for not firing upon the vast crowds protesting Mubarak's continued rule. his administration was adjusting to the loss of a bedrock ally in a volatile region. lifting the emergency law. President Obama moved quickly within hours of Mubarak's departure to try to influence the Egypt that will follow. warning they would "have to ensure a transition that is credible in the eyes of the Egyptian people. LA Times – 2/11 (David S. Yet the U. Washington director for Human Rights Watch.5 billion in aid every year.com/news/politics/lafg-egypt-us-20110212. The task is difficult because Mubarak brutally suppressed any party that threatened his stranglehold on power. and preserving that flow — as well as the Egyptian military's longstanding ties with the Pentagon — is likely to be a major goal for the country's new leaders. February 11. http://www. But even as Obama hailed the triumph of democracy in the Cairo streets. 2011. Cloud and Paul Richter.S. the Berlin Wall's crumbling. Martin Luther King Jr. US is using the full force and speed of its diplomacy to handle the transition in Egypt. is not without leverage. expects the Egyptian generals to dismantle the machinery of a repressive state.latimes. Mubarak's departure threatens to end 30 years of certainty in which American administrations could count on Egypt maintaining its 1979 peace treaty with Israel." Obama said. “U. After days of being buffeted by events. He drew a link between the rebellion that began Jan. But he reserved most of his praise for the protesters. revising the constitution and other laws to make this change irreversible.0.

But Clinton. 2011. and that’s critical at a time when the administration is presented with so few good alternatives. But it’s also because the pragmatic Clinton is “one of the few remaining grown-ups. It requires “all hands on deck” to manage the situation. Bush’s ambassador to Israel.com/news/stories/0211/48658. “She’s the obvious choice to adopt this role.” according to a senior administration official. has never occupied such a central role in such an unpredictable situation.” in the words of one former State Department higher-up.” .html) CJC Obama. “You need someone out there who understands the complexity of this situation.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 15/148 Cross-X. Thrush – 2/2 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico. “And she’s one of the only people who could step in. has turned to Clinton in the past for advice and to serve as the public face for the administration’s policies. She knows all of these players very well.” says Daniel Kurtzer who served as ambassador to Egypt under Bill Clinton and as President George W.com Thursday File Diplomacy Focus Key Clinton and her diplomacy team are critical to a successful transition. http://www. known for relying on a tight circle of foreign policy advisers based in the West Wing and Vice President Joe Biden’s office. February 2. who entered Foggy Bottom without the policy agenda of many of her predecessors. “Hillary Clinton plays key role in dance with Hosni Mubarak”. That’s because the administration has never faced a foreign crisis of this magnitude that requires “all hands on deck. who can speak authoritatively at a time of rapid staff turnover in the West Wing.politico.” adds Kurtzer.

who provided few details on the substance of the conversations. 11. “Public Praise. it's unlikely the generals.” he said. International Atomic Energy Agency who has offered himself as a transitional leader. 2011.0. He is also calling for the drafting of a wholly new constitution and elections within a year.3212459. “Mission not yet accomplished”. http://www. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. President Barack Obama’s top military adviser. The connections may be critical in the coming weeks and months as Egypt’s Supreme Council of the Armed Forces directs a process toward elections and democratic rule. As Gates and Mullen have tried to keep on top of events in Egypt. the former chief of the U.bloomberg.column) CJC Left to their own devices.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military. said the official. officials met with Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak at the White House this week. Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Admiral Mike Mullen. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. 2011. military’s commitment to that partnership. he will discuss security issues of mutual concern and reassure both these key partners of the U.com/news/opinion/commentary/laoe-mcmanus-column-egypt-20110213.com Thursday File UQ Ext – Military Diplomacy Dealing with the Egyptian crisis is requiring huge amounts of military diplomatic capital.S. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. Mullen will attend a ceremony marking the end of Israeli Lieutenant General Gabi Ashkenazi’s term as chief of staff. Gates and other top U. reporter for Bloomberg News. though they've promised constitutional changes.html) CJC “The military.” said Daniel Kurtzer. according to Pentagon spokesmen Geoff Morrell and Navy Captain John Kirby. http://www. Lifting the state of emergency that’s been in effect for 30 years and given power to security forces would “send a powerful signal throughout the society. McManus – 2/13 (Doyle McManus. Decades of ties.S. But Egypt's next step is far from certain. military schools. Military if left to their own devices will not transition to democracy. including training of Egyptian officers at elite U. “In both countries.latimes. Military diplomacy with Egypt is critical to ensuring a stable transition.S. 11 and promised a transition to democracy. have made regular telephone calls to their counterparts.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 16/148 Cross-X.S. Our success relies on our military diplomacy to reassure allies that we have their back. which took control of the country Feb. a U. reporter for Bloomberg News. 2011.S. Feb 13.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military.” Kirby said. they’ve also sought to reassure allies and partners in the region of U. a former ambassador to Egypt who is a lecturer at Princeton University. military official said on condition of anonymity. has established relationships between the two forces and made pressure unnecessary so far. Mohamed ElBaradei.bloomberg.N. The calls aren’t intended to pressure the Egyptian military to do anything specific. U. energy and patience.html) CJC Pentagon officials are using public praise and private phone calls to help the Obama administration maintain connections and influence with the Egyptian military. Feb 13. “Public Praise. an end to the repressive state of emergency and new elections. The inevitable messiness of the ensuing process will present hard choices for the . will push for a swift transition to a full and free democracy.S. backing. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. for its part. who wasn’t authorized to speak publicly on the calls. has reported on national and international issues from Washington for more than 25 years. Diplomacy will require continued aid. is going to have to show some results right away. http://www. February 13. after President Hosni Mubarak ceded his powers to it Feb. has proposed a three-man "presidential council" with only one of the seats reserved for the military. Washington columnist for the Los Angeles Times. and Mullen headed to Jordan and Israel to meet with senior civilian and military leaders there yesterday and today.

Rand Paul (R-Ky. But that was a promise that may be difficult to keep. while not contradictory. "Nothing less than genuine democracy will carry the day. It's a pity that such an opportunity has arrived when we seem to be short of all three. in the House has already proposed deep cuts in foreign aid.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.S. Obama made a start on that process with his when he praised Egypt's military for its role as "caretaker to the state" but pointedly defined its mission now as guaranteeing a real transition. advise and aid countries that are moving toward democracy in the world's most dangerous region. such as revising the constitution and enabling multiple political parties. its close military relationship with the U. The new Republican majority statement Friday. it may prove difficult to convince Egypt's democrats that the United States was on their side all along. The administration wants more from Egypt than just democracy. The insurgencies in Egypt and Tunisia have presented the United States with an extraordinary opportunity: a chance to nudge." he said. political parties have sought for decades. said that the U. and its peace with Israel. And. John on CNN’s “State of the Union” yesterday . "We stand ready to provide whatever assistance is necessary. Taking advantage of that opening. That's why the word U. has proposed eliminating foreign aid entirely.html) CJC Negroponte. Feb 13. as late as Thursday. he added.S.S. Sen. "They must know that they will continue to have a friend in the United States of America. director of national intelligence under President George W.bloomberg. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. leverage — at the same time. the leader of the Senate's new "tea party" caucus. popular in Tahrir Square." Obama said. officials used most often over the last 18 days was "orderly. which leaders of both U.com 17/148 Thursday File Obama administration too. the Facebook insurgents in Tahrir Square or even the Muslim Brotherhood — won't be as strongly pro-U. Bush. 2011. “Public Praise. Anwar Sadat.S. to add the democracy-friendly modifier "genuine. aid — and thus U. http://www. energy and patience. it also want to maintain Egypt's stability. the first U. including for both Egypt and Israel. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. They didn't explain how to do that while reducing U." They administration is understandably concerned that Egypt's next political leaders — whether they turn out to be the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces.S. Others would cut Egypt but spare Israel." and why Obama felt it necessary. Some of those same House Republicans pressed the State Department last week to bar the Muslim Brotherhood from playing any role in a new Egyptian government.S. reporter for Bloomberg News. will require money. the United States will help.S.).S government will “play a role of holding the military’s feet to the fire” to ensure it makes democratic reforms. But after more than 30 years of support for the military governments of Mubarak and his predecessor.S. a move that wouldn't make the U." He must know that those two goals. as Mubarak was.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military. including the programs that would help Egyptian democracy." he said. Influence over the military is critical to ensure that transition is stable. are in tension. President Obama said last week that he hoped Egypt's democratization would be both "orderly and genuine.

ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20110211/egypttransition-us-role-110211/20110211/?hub=WinnipegHome) CJC Basham. "The U. 11 2011. C-TV News – 2/11 (CTV. http://winnipeg.S. told CTV News Channel that the Egyptian military finally pushed the president out.ca News Staff-Canada. taxpayer basically funds the Egyptian military and has done so for many years.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 18/148 Cross-X." he said.com Thursday File UQ Ext – US Has Influence Over Military US has influence over the military. The Egyptian military certainly has good relations with the United States. It forced them to push out Mubarak. but is very much aware that it is the United States that is paying the bill that affords them the prestige and the influence in Egyptian politics that they enjoy.ctv. in part because of American influence. "Whatever the motivations for the Egyptian military's move against Mubarak – clearly they told him he had to go – U.S. Feb. influence played no small part." Patrick . director of the Washington-based Democracy Institute. “Obama pledges to help Egypt transition to democracy”.

planning an election campaign. staring at the wall. the essence of crowd euphoria is the feeling that one is part of something greater than oneself. Now the country's leaders must help channel all that enthusiasm into institutional change. . the soldiers now ruling the country will have to do more than send everyone home. A letdown is inevitable. By whatever means possible." declared one protester. 2011. Disaster and dictatorship are not inevitable. Feb. and the army even threatened to arrest those who refused to leave. In France. the army should encourage the formation of political parties.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 19/148 Cross-X. the mob kept resurrecting itself in the years following 1789 (a tradition that continues into the present). The dissatisfaction with the February revolution of 1917 led to the Bolshevik coup d'etat in October of that year. the months following a revolution can therefore be more dangerous than the revolution itself. 14. especially if one has been part of a crowd for almost three weeks. Disappointment in the slow pace of post-revolutionary change cannot be avoided. Applebaum – 2/14 (Anne Applebaum is a Washington Post and Slate columnist.com Thursday File UQ Ext – Timeframe – Next Few Months Key Next few months are critical to ensure that Egypt does not collapse. Online activism is not a substitute for real activism. not just to celebrate but to demand more: "We won't leave because we have to make sure this country is set on the right path. It's not remotely surprising that demonstrators keep returning to Tahrir Square after Mubarak's resignation. but if Egypt is to avoid either a coup d'etat or a return to mob rule. On Sunday and Monday. “The Roar of the Crowd”. not next month or next year but right now. http://www. As Le Bon understood. Her most recent book is Gulag: A History. Historically. the creation of citizens' committees. and then slumping down again in front of Facebook or Al Jazeera. The satisfaction one receives from Twitter is not the same satisfaction one receives from spending hours in a room with a group of people. the building of neighborhood watch groups and clean-up brigades—anything to prevent those unemployed men in Tahrir Square from going home.com/id/2285041/?from=rss) CJC Coming down from the high of a crowd experience and returning to the humdrum ordinariness of an individual life can never be easy. described as unemployed.slate. soldiers clashed with demonstrators who were reluctant to go home.

more importantly." because leaders reject democratic laws that run counter to Islamic texts — but Islamists are willing to use elections to gain power. they will foment a revolution along the lines of Iran's in 1979. says if radical Islamists come to power. while facilitating as many international partners as possible. 2/14/2011. The group's grass-roots network is a source of power that liberals may have a hard time countering. Reporter at USA TODAY. It has engaged in the hard work of quiet diplomacy to encourage and. In Iran. http://www. especially if not given enough time to organize. the ruling Islamists' belief in God's sovereignty trumps political participation by the masses. February 16. 2011. that is why timing is everything. sustain these agreements. Stremlau – 2/16 (John Stremlau is vice president for peace programs at the nonprofit Carter Center. editor of the Middle East Forum. “Two vital steps on path to democracy in Egypt”. The movement may already be the bestorganized opposition group because of a network of charities. hospitals and aid programs for the poor. Radicals will use elections to gain power. “Ideology shadows fight to rule the new Egypt”. White said.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 20/148 Cross-X.com/2011/OPINION/02/15/stremlau. http://www. Dorell – 2/14 (Oren Dorell.democracy/) CJC The Obama administration has shown a consistent preference for inclusive agreements among all significant factions on basic election principles.com/news/world/2011-02-14-1Aegypt14_CV_N.com Thursday File UQ Ext – Dip.egypt. with an implementation strategy and timetable. Pipes said. Elections now mean they gain control because they are already well organized. which has observed 82 elections in 34 countries.htm) CJC Pipes.usatoday. K2 Election Timing Continued focused diplomacy is critical to ensure credible elections. Egypt's old Wafd and newer liberal and Daniel reform parties "may have a tough slog" reaching out. The Islamist movement is "inherently anti-democratic. And it has welcomed the growing role of domestic and international nongovernmental organizations willing and able to support the process. especially to Egypt's large lower class. *****Links***** . including regional organizations and the United Nations.cnn. to lend their support.

" . she wants to stay true to the themes of political.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 21/148 Cross-X. "She respects what the people had to do to go out in (Tahrir Square). can nurture and facilitate a military-led transition. and political reconciliation among the Taliban and other militant groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Clinton is said to have been in a "war-room mentality. director of policy planning and deputy chief of staff. It will largely fall to Clinton to advance the strategy that she and Holbrooke envisioned. Since Mubarak stepped down. as a long list of foreign policy issues becomes the province of the State Department. for Clinton. Progress in creating a credible Afghan government and sustainable economy has also been an uphill battle. diplomacy?”. The timing of withdraw would undermine near term focus on Egypt. troops come home at the end of the year.com Thursday File A2: Link Turns: Timing – (A Must Read) Other issues will move forward diplomatically. http://www. “Can Clinton remake U. interests and security in a region that is going through real transformation. which has quickly become the first major foreign policy crisis for the Obama administration. Labott – 2/16 (Elise Labott. involvement in Iraq. when the impact is triggered in the short term.html?iref=allsearch) CJC If the first six weeks of 2011 are any indicator. Their link turns do not assume the refocusing to the Egypt crisis. In the coming weeks Clinton will have to defend her smart power efforts before Republicans in Congress intent on taking an ax to President Obama's budget. but NO issue will currently take a back seat to our effort in Egypt in the near future." said Jake Sullivan. On one hand. While Mubarak has left the political scene. when the remainder of U. "She sees this as one of the most significant strategic projects of the Obama presidency.com/2011/POLITICS/02/16/clinton. it is really the beginning. she and the State Department will assume full responsibility for U. with Karzai an unreliable partner. And she must save the stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace talks from becoming a permanent casualty of recent events. 2011. Clinton will also need to work closely with allies about increasing pressure on Iran over its nuclear program. In fact. Rolling up her sleeves Yet no issue will likely demand more of Clinton's time in the near future than the political upheaval in Egypt. She is mindful of regional stability and wants to reassure other Middle East governments that the U." Mills said. economic and social reforms and respect for human rights that she pressed for in Qatar. "She feels the overwhelming weight of it. That will take time as well as diplomatic dexterity. "The secretary is going to roll up her sleeves.S.cnn. It's a personal challenge that speaks to the dilemma she has faced since becoming secretary of state.S. CNN Senior State Department Producer." talking to European and Arab allies about how the U.S. Clinton will be doing a lot more juggling.S. And down the road. will not abandon important and longtime allies. the chapter on Egypt's march toward democracy is far from complete.S. In addition to moving forward with engaging North Korea in the coming months. and she would like to support the president in advancing American values. spread like wildfire to Cairo and which are now permeating throughout the region -." But Clinton knows the push for democracy is fraught with risk.issues which remain close to her heart. February 16.sweep/index. The long-term is irrelevant. regional involvement. yearnings which were ignited in Tunisia. This link is a timing issue. marrying the fragile and reversible military gains with a political process that includes international diplomacy. particularly when it comes to foreign aid.

more WikiLeaks revelations and pressure from Congress to cut the State Department’s budget. some of which we are only beginning to understand.com/news/stories/0211/48700.” she added. “As we see. Thrush – 2/2 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned U. http://www. diplomats the pitched street battles erupting in Cairo and elsewhere have pushed the country into “uncharted territory.Focus US Diplomats are at the breaking point and barely able to keep up with the current situations on their plates.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 22/148 Cross-X. February 2.politico.html) CJC As Obama kept close tabs on the deepening crisis.com Thursday File 2NC Link Magnifier . And how quickly that ground can shift under our feet. They need all of the focus they have to deal with the Egyptian crisis.” Clinton. recent events in Egypt and certainly in that broader region. (they) remind us all of how crucial it is to have top-notch leadership on the ground. ambassadors that the current crisis was part of a “tough road ahead” for U.S. diplomats. with what’s going on today. she said. “There are too many forces at work.S.S. The challenges. warned a gathering of U.” . “Obama huddles with aides on Egypt”. who has become the administration’s public face during the crisis. include the possibility of instability in other countries. 2011.

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2NC Link Magnifier – Perception
US credibility for diplomacy is hanging by a thread in the Middle East. Perception of US backing away again would crush any influence that we have. CBS News – 2/11 (Ken Millstone, Staff Reporter; “Diplomat: Egypt Dislikes Suleiman's "Slimy Background"; February 11, 2011; http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20031554503544.html) CJC Ambassador Edward Peck, a career diplomat who served in Egypt and Tunisia, said that Suleiman
in many ways takes an even harsher and more authoritarian view of power than Mubarak. "He's been involved in a number of things that the people of Egypt do not like," including being the CIA's point man for the rendition and torture of terror suspects in Egypt, Peck said. He said Suleiman has "kind of a slimy background." Mubarak ceded power not to Suleiman but to the Egyptian armed forces and it is not clear what Suleiman's eventual role will be, if any. Still, Suleiman is a former military and intelligence officer with close ties to the military power structure. He "is always going to be a little trickle of saliva" that could be slurped back up into power at any time, Peck said. With or without Suleiman, a transition to democracy is no certainty, Peck

"It just takes one or two generals to say, 'Hey I kind of like being in charge.' That's happened before." Peck suggested that the U.S. has strained its credibility with other Arab world leaders by its somewhat erratic response to the events in Egypt - seemingly shifting allegiance to whatever actor seemed to be in the lead. "We have a just a tattered thread in that part of the world of the respect and reliability that we used to think we enjoyed on a regular basis," Peck said.
said:

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2NC Aid Link Magnifier
(_) Aid Package Link: A. And, Independently of influence over the Egyptian military, the US is negotiating an international aid package that would be critical to ensuring a smooth transition because the protests have gutted its economy. Richter – 2/14 (Paul Richter, Tribune Washington Bureau Reporter; “Obama administration seeks emergency financial package for Egypt”; Feb. 14, 2011; http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2011/02/14/1867987/obama-administration-seeksemergency.html) CJC Amid calls in Washington for sharp cuts in foreign aid, the Obama administration is seeking an emergency financial package for Egypt, fearing that further strains on its economy could thwart Cairo's fledgling reform effort almost before it begins. U.S. officials have been working international partners to seek pledges for a package, probably worth several hundred million dollars, as well as money to help build political parties and other democratic institutions, say U.S. and foreign diplomats. Public anxiety over Egypt's struggling economy, including high unemployment and rising prices, was one of the key drivers of an 18-day uprising that toppled former President Hosni Mubarak, who resigned on Friday. Now that Mubarak is gone, analysts say Egyptians may be overly optimistic in expecting rapid economic improvements. Michele Dunne, a Mideast specialist who has advised the Obama administration on Egypt in recent weeks, said the economy is "one of the greatest vulnerabilities for a country that's in a transition like this." The Egyptian finance ministry has estimated that the unrest cost the economy about $310 million a
WASHINGTON day, and some private analysts have estimated that investors have been withdrawing investment at a rate of about $1 billion a day. Annual economic growth of 5 percent was predicted for Egypt before the demonstrations; now the consensus is closer to 1 percent. Dunne, now with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said if Egyptians have unreasonable

expectations about economic opportunities and instead conditions worsen, "it could really sour relations between people" and the transitional government. U.S. officials, who have been consulting widely on Egypt in recent days, declined to discuss their aid goals in details, saying they are in the early stages of discussions. They said they expect international development banks may also play a part in the aid.

B. Economic aid package to Eygpt would give positive light to the US with the Egyptian population, undercutting Muslim Brotherhood influence and message they would use to gain control. Bryen – 2/11 (Shoshana Bryen is senior director for security policy at The Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs in Washington; “Egypt needs more U.S. aid, not less”; 2/11/11; http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0211/49384.html) CJC Two factors may force the Administration to reconsider the size and scope of the aid. First is the attitude of the Egyptian people toward the United States. Though there has been little overt antiAmericanism in the demonstrations, Egyptians are acutely aware that U.S. aid largely flows to the military — with little benefit to them. The Muslim Brotherhood, with its network of religious schools and social programs, has capitalized on the difference between U.S. military aid and religiously inspired social services. It is not surprising that a recent Pew survey shows Egyptians preferring Islamic
government to “those who would modernize the country,” by 59 to 27 percent, and attitudes toward Americans running nearly 4:1 negative. The demonstrations and looting during the protests have wreaked havoc on the

Egyptian economy and capital is expected to flow out as soon as the banks reopen. The answer to “how much” may be sent abroad no one knows, but estimates run into the hundreds of millions at a minimum. Emergency food and economic stabilization aid from America could help average Egyptians see the United States as a benefactor and remove one anti-American prop from the Muslim Brotherhood and from Iran. Second is what the Egyptian military has acquired over the years.

Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.com 25/148 Thursday File The U.S. permitted Egypt to buy systems that directly threaten Israel – Harpoon Block II anti-ship missiles, for example – with little opposition from Israel or its friends in Congress because of Mubarak’s commitment to the peace treaty. Should the Muslim Brotherhood take a commanding position in a multi-party interim government, an implacable enemy of both Israel and the United States will have at least some say in the use of those military assets. Elsewhere in
the region, Hezbollah never won a majority in any Lebanese election, but imposes its will on the Lebanese government by threat of force — and now has a say in the operation of the U.S.-supported Lebanese Armed Forces. In a similar situation,

Washington would have no choice but to suspend military aid and cooperation with Egypt — with the loss of benefits to the United States that implies.

Continued diplomacy is critical to building international support for the aid package. R-Ohio. http://www." said Stephen McInerney.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 26/148 Cross-X. President Barack Obama. currently gives Egypt about $1. statement last weekend. .bellinghamherald. they will chart a different course. perhaps through loans by the European Investment Bank. Tribune Washington Bureau Reporter. The Obama administration is trying to prevent Republicans from imposing steep cuts on foreign aid. “Obama administration seeks emergency financial package for Egypt”. Clinton said she hopes that as Congress considers "the national security and economic consequences of these cuts. a spokeswoman for Lady Catherine Ashton. "I think they'll feel this cause is worth it. who are already struggling with severe austerity budgets. it has bipartisan support. trying to work out a common position on how to encourage democratic change in Egypt. 2011. Europe and elsewhere. 14. The push for more aid comes at a difficult time for the United States and many allies. most of it going to the Egyptian military. Maja Kocijancic. the European Union's foreign affairs chief.S." The aid discussions have come at a time when the administration has been reaching out to allies in the Middle East. on Monday and expressed her concern about proposed reductions for the State Department and aid programs. an EU international finance arm.S. must promote stability in countries such as Egypt or "we will pay a higher price later in crises that are allowed to simmer and boil over into conflicts. executive director of the Project on Middle East Democracy. and some analysts predict there will be bipartisan support for at least some increase in Egypt's aid.com Thursday File Ext – Aid Link: A2 Aid Cuts Now Aid package will pass in the US despite calls for cuts in the Aid budget. Feb.5 billion per year. including by working with international partners to provide financial support. in a said the United States was committed to offering aid that was needed by Egypt "to pursue a credible and orderly transition to democracy.html) CJC The U. Richter – 2/14 (Paul Richter." Clinton said. Yet the overthrow of Mubarak has been welcomed by Democrats and Republicans." The U. said the EU is considering the possibility of aid.com/2011/02/14/1867987/obama-administration-seeksemergency. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton met with House Speaker John Boehner.

Meanwhile. http://india.com Thursday File Ext – Aid Link: Econ Spark Instability Egypt economic issues continued would spark another wave of instability. The labor crisis has been the most formidable challenge for the country's new military leaders and threatens to pierce a fragile calm that has prevailed since political protests ended Friday after nearly three weeks.wsj. . as employees protest poor wages and demand that bank leaders be prosecuted for alleged corruption.com/article/SB10001424052748703373404576148073209074728.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 27/148 Cross-X. Matt Bradley. according to MENA. Egypt's stock exchange again delayed its opening. as labor strikes continued and school openings were delayed. the official Egyptian state news agency. 2/17/11. Strikes could add to mounting economic woes. WSJ 2/17 (Jay Solomon. " Treasury Calls for Scrutiny of Egypt ".html) Egypt's new military rulers faced growing hurdles in their efforts to restore normalcy to the country. pushing it to Monday. Banks said they won't reopen until Sunday.

“The Importance of Hard Power”. These are serious matters." Decrease in US military presence directly trades-off with diplomatic influence.8 The third . and defeat enemies does not rest on the strength of our political leaders' commitment to diplomacy. when negotiating trade policy and burden-sharing with Japan. though only indirectly related to presence. 5]MGM political effect of presence is that it augments diplomatic influence. The threat. http://www. It's this connection of hard to soft power that Mr. and you don't take them seriously by wishing away the necessity. Obama has argued that America must "combine military power with strengthened diplomacy. Unfortunately. 2009 [Kim. Obama appears not to understand. 1991 [Daniel and Jonathan. presence to deter a threat and the positive effects of assurance derived from deterrence can be used in diplomatic negotiations through linking the topic of negotiations to the continuation of that presence. Obama's next proposed defense budget and Secretary of defense Robert M. For America to be an effective leader and arbiter of the international order.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 28/148 Cross-X. it is about the interaction and sometimes clash of hardened interests and ideologies. Senior Executive Service and principal director. Similarly. of using the hard power of force to settle things. Office of the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Strategy. The United States can succeed in advancing its priorities by diplomatic means only so long as it retains a "big stick. Center for Naval Analysis. not just soft. deter competitors. military primacy and its implications for Australian security and stability in the Asia-Pacific. Military Presence in the Asian-Pacific Region”. 6-12.S.com Thursday File 2NC Links – Plan Kills Coercive Diplomacy Obama needs to strengthen the military – the perception of declining commitments kills our diplomatic influence. of the withdrawal of forces is present. Recently. April. on average. Holmes.S. explicit or implicit. it rests on the foundation of a powerful military. coerce belligerent states. as well as in talks on trade policy and political reform in the ROK. If our country allows its hard power to wane." But since becoming president he has done little to demonstrate an actual commitment to forging a policy that combines America's military power with diplomatic strategies. and Force Development AND **member of the Center for Naval Analyses assigned to III Marine Expeditionary Force. no less than 4 percent of the nation's gross domestic product on defense. Gates' vision for "rebalancing" the military are drastically disconnected from the broad range of strategic priorities that a superpower like the United States must influence and achieve. where America's ability to hedge against the growing ambitions of a rising China is being called into question by some of our key Asian allies. That requires resources: spending.as if diplomacy were merely about communications and eliminating hurt feelings. Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of defense for Strategy. strategy. pg. The ability of the United States to reassure friends. In what is becoming a signature trait of saying one thing and doing another.S. An ally's reliance on U.S. to intervene on their behalf any time. a link exists between reform in the PRC and the U. anywhere it has to. These developments are anything but reassuring. Mr.need to know they can count on the U. That will require hard power. it must be willing to maintain a world-class military..d. Rather. Mr. when need be. Chiu & Dworken. our leaders will lose crucial diplomatic clout. The next British leader . VP for Foreign and Defense Policy Studies and Director of the David Institute for International Studies at the Heritage Foundation. military relationship (technology transfers and port visits) with that country. Plans. “The Political Effects of U.S. diplomatic words murmured whilst strolling serenely along "Obama Beach. Australia released a defense white paper concerned primarily with the potential decline of U.heritage.and the rest of our allies . Ph. for example.org/Research/Commentary/2009/06/The-importance-of-hard-power] MGM The problem here is not merely an overconfidence in the process of "talking" and trying to achieve "mutual understanding" . This is already on display in the western Pacific Ocean." Only by building a full-spectrum military force can America reassure its many friends and allies and count on their future support.

Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of defense for Strategy. Center for Naval Analysis. presence. 1991 [Daniel and Jonathan. 23] MGM Note: This is a footnote explaining diplomatic presence and US military presence 8. Plans. Chiu & Dworken.com Thursday File Pulling out when threats are high wrecks our influence. at best.S.S. so does the value of U. . and Force Development AND **member of the Center for Naval Analyses assigned to III Marine Expeditionary Force. There is a severe limitation to this effect. Military Presence in the Asian-Pacific Region”. When the perceived threats decline. April. Senior Executive Service and principal director. “The Political Effects of U. pg. Office of the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Strategy. making the leverage in negotiations slim. strategy.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 29/148 Cross-X.

Mr. Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs (1991-92). He graduated from Harvard College and received a M. approximately five thousand facilities spread all over the country and the world. and funding allotted to his department. and an annual budget now surpassing $400 billion. 2006 [Lincoln.A. Thailand. coerce belligerent states.amazonaws. 2009 (Kim Holmes. indeed overwhelmingly. the Philippines. Holmes.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 30/148 Cross-X. and defeat enemies does not rest on the strength of our political leaders’ commitment to diplomacy. that America is committed—via the North Atlantic Treaty.d.usnwc. they will of course cite the prosecution of wars both hot and cold. To think otherwise would be to overlook the belief. Former US Special Envoy for Man-Portable Air Defense Systems Threat Reduction. and bilateral security treaties with Japan. Korea. streamlining. assets.L.pdf) The consequences of hard-power atrophy will be a direct deterioration of America’s diplomatic clout. or reconfiguration of an organizational empire that includes well over two million soldiers and civilians. this massive exercise in managerial housekeeping by the secretary of defense cannot be viewed exclusively as one cabinet executive’s effort to make more productive use of the people. http://s3. These developments are anything but reassuring. excites foreign . Only by building a full-spectrum military force can America reassure its many friends and allies and count on their future support. “Sustaining American Leadership with Military Power”. For all the calculations of greater efficiency and utility that commend the idea of reconfiguring America’s global military footprint. the fielding of powerful and complex weapons systems. military primacy and the implications that this decline would have for Australian security and stability in the Asia–Pacific. Rarely to be found among these major tasks will be any large-scale updating. Bloomfield previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (1992-93). and the promulgation of defense and security strategies to prepare for and deter threats to the national interest. These are national commitments.aspx] An Ambitious Concept When historians look back on the Defense Department’s biggest undertakings during its first six decades of existence. Reducing military presence prompts State Department intervention – focuses diplomatic efforts on minimizing effects of the aff. and the sight of U. The Global Defense Posture Review (GDPR) is such an undertaking. it rests on the foundation of a powerful military. resident in allied populations in more than fifty countries by latest count. this initiative is inescapably. At the same time. 6-1-2009. Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century. political in terms of its effect on the rest of the world. armed forces standing the watch in almost every latitude and time zone has calmed regional rivalries and dissuaded armed escalations for sixty years. and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs (1988-89) among other policy positions in the Defense Department dating to 1981. “Reposturing the Force: U.S. The ability of the United States to reassure friends.D. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. http://www.” Chapter 3: Politics and Diplomacy of the Global Defense Posture Review.S. This is already on display in the western Pacific Ocean.com/thf_media/2009/pdf/sr0052. and Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs from 2001-2005.edu/Publications/Naval-War-CollegePress/Newport-Papers/Documents/26-pdf. solemnly made. Bloomfield.. the Rio Treaty. Recently.com Thursday File Link – General Decreasing military deployments kills diplomatic influence. A global posture realignment that involves moving large numbers of those sentries and their weapons inevitably begs the most urgent of security questions. Only by retaining a “big stick” can the United States succeed in advancing its diplomatic priorities. deter competitors. and Australia— to come to their defense in extremis.S. VP for Foreign and Defense Policy Studies and Director of the David Institute for International Studies at the Heritage Foundation. Australia released a defense White Paper that is concerned primarily with the potential decline of U. Ph. where America’s ability to hedge against the growing ambitions of a rising China is being called into question by some of our key Asian allies.

depending on how the matter is handled. European and Asian foreign-policy experts. Mr. might aggravate rather than defuse foreign anxieties were also not entirely misplaced. a well-executed streamlining of the U. Bloomfield previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (1992-93).A. there were indeed some in the State Department who wanted nothing more than for the initiative to go away and who feared damage to alliances if it went forward.S. and it embodied major foreign policy equities. He graduated from Harvard College and received a M. policy bureaucracy as a whole. Within the U. and their support structure should be physically positioned according to the logic of global geography is very appealing. bases or consolidated in other locales.S.” Chapter 3: Politics and Diplomacy of the Global Defense Posture Review. Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs (1991-92). That he did it during wartime is extraordinary. an efficiently designed. Big Decision: Getting to “Yes” What with the profound implications of a posture change for allied countries hosting U. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. Rumsfeld took on this monumental management task. never mind foreign policy bureaucrats. and reposition the U. In at least one country DoD doggedly sought to announce and implement a drawdown of military assets against that ally’s wishes and with an evident relish that required diplomatic damage control and led the president to withhold to himself the withdrawal decision. without overly taxing the system.aspx] a major change in defense doctrine and practice requires a significant public diplomacy effort if it is to be accepted abroad. 2006 [Lincoln.S. Over the long term. concerns in the State Department that some Department of Defense (DoD) officials.L. even when the nature and location of the crisis had not been foreseen. “Reposturing the Force: U. . Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century.edu/Publications/Naval-War-CollegePress/Newport-Papers/Documents/26-pdf. their equipment. to have a clear and compelling vision of how the new global defense posture—embracing U. by their manner. and therefore runs the risk. and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs (1988-89) among other policy positions in the Defense Department dating to 1981. their facilities. On the other hand. directly to the point of engagement. The Department of State. and the allied governments themselves. and capabilities to fulfill those commitments.S. particularly in Asia. Conceptually. An Ambitious Concept The idea that U. braving the predictable resistance of settled constituencies from one end of the globe to the other. Bloomfield. of perturbing the very stability that America’s global military presence is meant to ensure. global defense posture could profit the nation’s security. are no longer usefully measured by numbers of troops. and officials need to be not simply told but persuaded that America’s commitments to them. That Mr. would inevitably make their voices heard before the Department of Defense’s new scheme based on geographic convenience and logistical efficiency could supplant longstanding basing patterns in foreign localities. The concern was not imaginary.com 31/148 Thursday File anxieties in many quarters. the decision to embark on a global realignment was the president’s to make. is noteworthy. and Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs from 2001-2005. whose reaction to any disturbance of the diplomatic status quo might be expected to be one of resistance to change. such concerns were not limited to experienced regional specialists in the State Department. The foreign press has focused on troops scheduled to be pulled back to U. if not in monetary terms certainly in the ability of a finite force structure to deliver the maximum military benefit through the greater efficiencies and capabilities of the new global posture. forces outside Still. and land routes from one region to the next. indeed opposition. http://www. even to discussing prospective force reductions with allied countries.usnwc.S. globally managed force posture would optimize the flow of combat power along sea. there were varying perceptions about whether the advertised merits of particular changes under the Global Defense Posture Review would indeed redound to the long-term security benefit of the United States. journalists. Former US Special Envoy for Man-Portable Air Defense Systems Threat Reduction.S. Such a concept would best allow future presidents to position viable military options to employ anywhere in response to a sudden danger on the shortest of notice. military force units. redesign. One could well imagine the Pentagon’s potential misgivings about placing this hugely ambitious venture at the mercy of other departments.D. The plan requires significant diplomatic resources to reassure allies.S. certainly none of his predecessors seriously attempted it. his determination to rethink. There remains a need for allies. air. military’s posture at home and abroad according to a rational design reflecting contemporary security conditions should stand as a positive mark in his legacy.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. Big Change.S. Of all of Donald Rumsfeld’s actions during his headline-filled second tenure as secretary of defense. forces and the state of America’s diplomatic relations with them.

who visited Canberra. and when they had finished. articulated his concept. one that won quick endorsement from DoD and the interagency realm—that this initiative had to be conducted in full consultation with affected governments around the world.usnwc. none of the recommended changes in overseas American presence was yet decided. Rolling Out the Initiative On 25 November 2003. and asked his aides to brief the rationale for this transformational initiative. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy.edu/Publications/Naval-War-CollegePress/Newport-Papers/Documents/26-pdf. make possible this assurance.S. understandably fearful of losing home-district bases under BRAC. Other agencies offered their comments. and Singapore. Mr. split up and barnstormed a total of twelve European capitals. What finally forced the issue was the link between prospective overseas withdrawals of military assets and units and the planned round of the Base Closure and Realignment (BRAC) Commission. With that pithy intervention by Secretary Powell. the administration found itself in consensus that the GDPR was timely. Former US Special Envoy for Man-Portable Air Defense Systems Threat Reduction. From the president’s perspective. and Tokyo . By the fall of 2003. Bloomfield previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (1992-93). following which these two officials. emphasizing the need to move past a World War II–era basing structure. backed by respective interagency delegations. http://www. Canberra. From there the issue went to the president. to ask “Why now?” and put it off for another day. mobility. however. the White House released President George Bush’s statement announcing the new initiative.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. which said in part: “Beginning today. while the author made a side trip to Manila for the same purpose. who approved it to proceed to public rollout and consultation with other governments. Secretary Rumsfeld rolled out his map. and partners overseas on our ongoing review of our overseas force posture. as the host governments in each case were deeply involved in discussions about potential adjustments. among other advances. Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century. worthy.” The words were carefully chosen. allies. He graduated from Harvard College and received a M. such as Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage. whenever the issue was raised within senior interagency circles. this review was “ongoing. and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs (1988-89) among other policy positions in the Defense Department dating to 1981. and Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs from 2001-2005. The secretary continued. there was also a temptation. difficult project was not driven by exigencies of current military operations. already undergoing very careful.aspx] Since this large. Empirical proof. comprehensive posture reviews on a bilateral basis. Secretaries Powell and Rumsfeld launched diplomatic consultations on the GDPR at the December 2003 NATO ministerial meetings. Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs (1991-92). Major allies Japan and Korea. and stealth. This was followed within days by a joint appearance at the North Atlantic Council by Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Marc Grossman and Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Douglas Feith.L. with the DoD worldwide realignment plan finally ready for top-level interagency consideration. deadpan.com 32/148 Thursday File as well as within their borders—will ensure their security as before. Beijing. Secretary of State Colin Powell understood DoD’s concern that the initiative could be subjected to death by a thousand cuts. which developed a final list of recommended domestic base closures during 2005. Specific force posture changes would require presidential approval at a later stage. Many in Congress. Bloomfield. all eyes turned to the secretary of state. Precision strike. Secretary Powell said he thought the briefing had misstated the facts about European bases being obsolete because of their relevance to World War II. 2006 [Lincoln. When the principals finally engaged at the White House.” Chapter 3: Politics and Diplomacy of the Global Defense Posture Review. A few hearts stopped. His point was effectively made—of course we needed to update and rationalize our force posture. and deserving of priority support subject to the president’s approval. Secretary Powell pledged his and the State Department’s support and assistance to the Global Defense Posture Review under one condition. High-level administration visitors to Asian capitals. had told the administration not to start that process until it had first scrubbed the overseas basing system for other ways to streamline the global footprint. “Reposturing the Force: U. In March 2004 Under Secretary Feith led a delegation (including the author) that briefed this initiative in Beijing. and silence pervaded the room.” and consultations were to be integral to his decision process. the United States will intensify our consultations with the Congress and our friends.A. were of course part of the GDPR picture. there was no requirement for a special briefing to either. that in some locations— including German facilities under his command in the 1980s—the bases dated all the way back to the Franco-Prussian War. It must not be a fait accompli imposed on allies from Washington.D. By mid2003. time was running short if GDPR decisions were to be in hand for the BRAC analytical work that was to commence in early 2004.

Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs (1991-92).aspx] As the GDPR moves toward the implementation phase. closure of facilities. Bloomfield. and the State Department’s regional assistant secretaries for Near East. and technologies now operated. the approach was to explain the merits of rationalizing the global U. 6-26-2010 [Michael. the administration provided briefing points for ambassadors to scores of countries. And I think that translates Hastings: I think into the fact that a lot of the time just the leaders get the blame for all the wars. European governments will do well to revisit their ability to act immediately on time-sensitive intelligence. You know.antiwar. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. the EU or their parliaments. Hastings. Persuading allies that military operations had evolved over time was not difficult.D.L. you look at every foreign service officer – you know. This is not to say. readily responded to public and official queries about GDPR. Africa. The recent examples of relatively lean forces dislodging the Taliban regime from Kabul and then the Saddam Hussein regime from Baghdad spoke volumes about conceptual leaps forward in the military arts by the United States since World War II. indeed since Vietnam. carried to those regions the message that others had already given to Europe and Asia. and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs (1988-89) among other policy positions in the Defense Department dating to 1981. “Reposturing the Force: U.edu/marshall/crsreports/crsdocuments/RL34531_06162008. it will serve the United States and its traditional allies best if the sides come to a mutual understanding on how to meet the needs of all. freelance writer. The United States will do well to work out with allied governments modalities to satisfy host countries’ legitimate needs for information and consent.A. He graduated from Harvard College and received a M. More ev – US will have to reassure allies.S. platforms. respectively. You know. Former US Special Envoy for Man-Portable Air Defense Systems Threat Reduction. assuring the Australian public that the United States did not seek to base combat units in Australia. South Asia.pdf] . military network so as to reflect the considerable changes over several decades in the way American soldiers. As this was truly a global initiative. You know. or timetables.” Chapter 3: Politics and Diplomacy of the Global Defense Posture Review. You know. you could fit every foreign service officer on an aircraft carrier. Also – negotiating SOFAs requires time and resources. and How Might One Be Utilized In Iraq?”. http://www. and they should take their fair share of blame. for example. We’re packing up here and so I’ve got to take off. “Michael Hastings Interview Transcript. but I think we also have to start looking at the military leaders in a much more critical way than they’re accustomed to be looked at. that all these consultations in Europe and Asia divulged specifics on planned movements and locations of units. there’s more people in the Army band than there are foreign service officers. Deputy Secretary Armitage was able to calm negative foreign press speculation by.umaryland. Bloomfield previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (1992-93).S. but I appreciate your time and we’ll talk again soon.edu/Publications/Naval-War-CollegePress/Newport-Papers/Documents/26-pdf.com 33/148 Thursday File during the winter of 2003–2004. 6/16. Every geographic combatant commander’s area of responsibility was slated to experience change. in fact. Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century.law. the two are one. and Latin America. 2009 [Chuck. and Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs from 2001-2005. however.” http://www. Rolling Stone. And. even when there is no formal mandate from NATO. the UN. 2006 [Lincoln.com/blog/2010/06/26/michael-hastings-interview-transcript/] there’s a larger kind of structural issue here about – you just compare the DOD budget to the State Department budget. Mason.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. “Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA): What Is It. Mr. Instead. State Department is stretched thin and military-diplomatic issues are inextricably linked. $600 billion to $50 billion.usnwc. so you look like at just the sort of decay of the State Department and basically our foreign policy has become our defense policy. as American military power is staged from their territories in future crises. none of this was included in the initial briefings. regardless of the urgency. http://www.

Institute for Global Conflict and Cooperation and the National Science Foundation.. and. From an evolutionary standpoint. The U. by permitting adjustment of the legal rules and expectations. like the nuclear weapons states. which has the effect of reducing the reputational sanction for violating the soft law rule (because not all states will see a violation of the one as a violation of the other).. . First. establishing a soft law regime recognizes that the benefits to permitting those states to update legal rules over time outweighs the costs in terms of an opportunistic updating of such rules. treaties) often exacerbate the difficulties with renegotiation because unless a treaty provides otherwise.. every party to a treaty exercises a veto over amendments. (3) if the commanding officer believes there is danger that the servicemember will not be protected because of the absence or denial of constitutional rights the accused would receive in the United States. . holding expected levels of compliance constant.8 The Senate approved ratification of the NATO SOFA on March 19. . However.D.. however...com Thursday File With the exception of the multilateral SOFA among the United States and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries. . and equipment.. a SOFA is specific to an individual country and is in the form of an executive agreement. PSI's purpose is to enforce international nonproliferation obligations by making it more difficult to acquire sensitive technology.e. the commanding officer shall request that the receiving state waive its jurisdiction...10 Renegotiating treaties like SOFAs to withdraw troops take large amounts of diplomatic capital because many parties have veto power. . as well as opportunistic violations of the soft regime that could for new conditions.. Berkeley School of Law. The resolution included a statement that nothing in the Agreement diminishes.. would not put safeguards on its military nuclear operations). 1970.S. Because the rule prohibiting the transfer of X is not directly binding.. identify the need for a SOFA with a particular country and negotiate the terms of the agreement. flexibility-enhancing devices are available to states to promote agreement in situations in which the parties might otherwise be unable to reach an accord. or alters the right of the United States to safeguard its own security by excluding or removing persons whose presence in the United States is deemed prejudicial to its safety or security. (4) a representative of the United States be appointed to attend the trial of any servicemember being tried by the receiving state and act to protect the constitutional rights of the servicemember. Constitution.. University of California. armed forces in that state shall review the laws of the receiving state with reference to the procedural safeguards of the U. as an export control regime. .6 The Department of State and the Department of Defense. and that no person whose presence in the United States is deemed prejudicial to its safety or security shall be permitted to enter or remain in the United States. Jurisprudence and Social Policy. abridges.. . February 2009. Berkeley.D. Because states are likely to have ex ante expectations about who the first movers will be. in which rules change over time to account flexibility can enhance global welfare over time. 888..S..S. Fordham University School of Law Fordham International Law Journal. sought to make India an exception to the NSG rules that transfers can only be made to non-nuclear weapons states that have accepted safeguards on all of their nuclear operations (India.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 34/148 Cross-X. subject to reservations. The NATO SOFA7 is the only SOFA that was concluded as part of a treaty.. This increase in the supply of counterproliferation is a public good that in some measure offsets the cost to other states of accepting their less-preferred counterproliferation rules. “SOFT LAW AS DELEGATION”. J. Lexis) Binding international agreements (i.J. Ph. Flexibility as a Device to Promote Agreement Other scholars have suggested that a variety of . Meyer Fellow Institue for Global Conflict 2009 (Timothy. material.. 32 Fordham Int'l L... (2) when a servicemember is to be tried by authorities in a receiving state. working together. Public Policy and Nuclear Threats Fellow. have been deterred by a hard regime. perceptions about the relationship between the two rules may vary.9 The Senate reservations to the NATO SOFA include four conditions: (1) the criminal jurisdiction provisions contained in Article VII of the agreement do not constitute a precedent for future agreements. the commanding officer of the U. . . the cost to the United States of trade sanctions from a minor trading partner may be small compared with the benefits of such a violation because of the relative importance of the trading relationship to each state. University of California..

as they undertook their Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review. Defense leaders and staff worked closely with the Departments of State and Homeland Security. capabilities. For example.S. government to benefited from further the kind of integrated security approaches long advocated by the President.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 35/148 Cross-X. strengthening our technology and industrial bases to facilitate innovation. and institutional reforms necessary to protect and advance U. As the QDR generated insights and interim findings.S.S. and crafting a strategic approach to climate and energy challenges. as well as the Intelligence Community. and Secretary of State. both within DoD and beyond. and plans in overlapping issue areas. Secretary of Defense. 2010) Part of the Department’s obligation to defend and advance U. improving our defense acquisition and logistics processes to better support our personnel in harm’s way. these were shared with and reviewed by a wide range of experts. Given the complex security environment and the range of missions. An important element of revitalizing key relationships is the need to craft an approach to the U. and defense agreements across regions. the QDR highlights the importance of revitalizing defense relationships with allies and partners in key regions.com Thursday File Link – Military Change Military reforms and changes to our SQ policy require tons of diplomatic capital – consultation and reviews will happen at all levels of government. The Quadrennial Defense Review in 2010 (QDR Report prepared for Congress. interests while taking care of our people is the imperative to reform how it does business. interests. DoD officials also engaged with their counterparts elsewhere in the U. The Department is working to help build a whole-of-government approach to the provision of security assistance. This QDR extensive engagement with key stakeholders. QDR staff consulted with and briefed congressional staff as well as representatives of allied and other governments. and Quadrennial Intelligence Community Review respectively. facilities. Quadrennial Homeland Security Review. February 1. capabilities.S. defense posture that emphasizes cooperation with allies and partners and retailoring military forces. Over the course of the review. key missions. . sharing insights regarding analysis.

It remains to be seen to what extent the achievements of the surge in Iraq will be sustained there politically. have all been recently appointed by the Obama administration. with our training. Congress terminated an American role even after all our troops had. proclaimed Afghanistan a necessary war. This is not to exclude the possibility of defections from the Taliban as occurred from Al Qaeda in Iraq's Anbar province. ever pacified the entire country. commit it to the improvement of the lives of its people. Rejecting their recommendations would be a triumph of domestic politics over strategic judgment. Is that paradox soluble? The prevailing strategy in Afghanistan is based on the classic anti-insurrection doctrine: to build a central government. After all. In Vietnam. Hence the defeat of Al Qaeda and radical Islamic jihad should be the dominant priority. No outside force has. A decision not to increase current force levels involves.S. Military strategy is traditionally defined by control of the maximum amount of territory. the reversal of a process introduced with sweeping visions by two administrations may lead to chaos. It would be ironic if.com Thursday File Link – Afghanistan Withdrawal requires huge diplomatic efforts to reassure stakeholders in the region. as a candidate. and withdrawal that is not accompanied by a willingness to sustain the outcome amounts to abandonment. of course. each with outstanding qualifications. Al Qaeda and the Taliban are unlikely to be able to be separated so neatly geographically. “More troops is a start. if at all. in guerrilla war. however. But to win in Afghanistan we’ll need help from its powerful neighbors” Lexis] The demand for an exit strategy is. therefore. threatening domestic chaos. it can be relegated to being a secondary target. by a coalition of local feudal or semifeudal rulers. American political scientist. it was the Taliban which provided bases for Al Qaeda in the first place. The military strategy proposed by Generals McChrystal and Petraeus needs. ultimately deeper American involvement. abandoning the strategy proposed by General McChrystal and endorsed by Gen. cooperation with the Taliban in the governance of Afghanistan. The domestic debate generates the pressure for diplomatic compromise. This theory seems to me to be too clever by half. extrication becomes his principal objective. implies a surge testing the patience of the American public. not as a way to avoid it. A key strategic issue. It would raise the most serious questions about American steadiness in India. It would draw us into a numbers game without definable criteria. A seemingly unavoidable paradox emerges. it would be widely interpreted as the first step toward withdrawal. The request for more forces by General McChrystal states explicitly that his existing forces are inadequate for this mission. to be given a broader context with particular emphasis on the political environment. in return for not challenging the Taliban in the governance of Afghanistan. and recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize. where American troops have remained since 1953. Can a civil society be built on a national basis in a country which is neither a nation nor a state? In a partly feudal. the guerrillas often ceded control of the territory during the day and returned at night to prevent political stabilization. regardless of its ideological coloration and perhaps even its efficiency. The second option--offered as an alternative--would shrink the current mission by focusing on counter-terrorism rather than counterinsurgency. served as National Security Advisor and later concurrently as Secretary of State in the administrations of Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford. and loss of confidence in American reliability. since the Mongol invasion. or a more effective way to sustain it. after a while. will be which part of Afghan territory can be effectively controlled in terms of these criteria. Kissinger. threat. multiethnic society. Therefore. That. In Vietnam. Even Alexander the Great only passed through. A negotiation with the group might isolate Al Qaeda and lead to its defeat. The prospects of world order will be greatly affected by whether our strategy comes to be perceived as a retreat from the region. Newsweek. fundamental . Yet the fanaticism that motivates guerrillas--not to speak of suicide bombers--does not allow for compromise unless they face defeat or exhaustion. The most unambiguous form of exit strategy is victory. in turn. Even so-called realists--like me-would gag at a tacit U. according to this view. a metaphor for withdrawal. to take over. for it is highly improbable that the civic actions on which our policies are based could be carried out in areas controlled by the Taliban. at a minimum. A sudden reversal of American policy would fundamentally affect domestic stability in Pakistan by freeing the Qaeda forces along the Afghan border for even deeper incursions into Pakistan. In the past. is a local. David Petraeus. the probable target should a collapse in Afghanistan give jihad an even greater impetus. This is of particular relevance to Afghanistan.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 36/148 Cross-X. President Obama. been withdrawn for two years. As president. not a global. diplomat. and then protect the population until that government's own forces are able. he has shown considerable courage in implementing his promise to increase our forces in Afghanistan and to pursue the war more energetically. To adopt such a course is a disguised way of retreating from Afghanistan altogether. Afghanistan has been governed. The argument would be that the overriding American strategic objective in Afghanistan is to prevent the country from turning once again into a base for international terrorism. any attempt to endow the central government with overriding authority has been resisted by some established local rulers. But the strategy of the guerrilla--described by Mao--is to draw the adversary into a morass of popular resistance in which. we produced another motive for civil war. to decrease the present deployment with a new strategy. by following the received counterinsurgency playbook too literally. implying three options: to continue the present deployment and abandon the McChrystal strategy. In short. That is likely to be the fate of any central government in Kabul. It would also imply the partition of Afghanistan along functional lines. in fact. Every guerrilla war raises the challenge of how to define military objectives. even that may not permit troop withdrawals. 2009 [Henry. though as we have seen in Korea. control of 75 percent of the territory 100 percent of the time is more important than controlling 100 percent of the territory 75 percent of the time. or to increase the existing deployment with a strategy focused on the security of the population. Since the Taliban. 10-12. Those in the chain of command in Afghanistan. But those occurred after the surge.

“U. What does the public have to say about the situation in Afghanistan? Is public opinion turning against the "good" war? Can we expect help from our European allies? And what do Afghans have to say about conditions on the ground? U. I'll suggest as well is our ability to look forward to the kind of exit from Iraq that we as Americans would want to achieve at a certain point. where he is expected to ask allies for more help. The president also ordered a review of policies in Afghanistan to be completed before April's NATO summit. President Barack requested by General David McKiernan. If we can't get it right in Afghanistan. For the foreseeable future. Forbes. Policy failure will devastate US negotiating credibility. “Sources: Cell phone images alter course of Afghan probe“. Russia by unrest in the Muslim south. Each is threatened in one way or another and. it's going to be a lot harder to convince others to work with us to get it right in Iraq. support for the mission remains robust. no other country had the combination of resources or national interest required.org/military/library/news/2003/06/mil-030620-rfel-161133.civilians/.which include U. The council also asked that the ministry es demand After the the international forces halt airstrikes on civilian targets.000 U. our credibility as a warrior against terror." Wisner said. The special aspect of Afghanistan is that it has powerful neighbors or near neighbors--Pakistan. On August 25.org. This would also enhance our political flexibility. perhaps unrelatable to the rhythm of our electoral processes. And with them.htm] But the independent panel's report calls for more. China by fundamentalist Shiite jihadists in Xinjiang. peace efforts in Iraq. and NATO command there.S.000 troops Last week.” http://www. once the decision was taken. made the right decision to use military force there. to stand more or less aloof. Afghanistan's Council of Ministers called on the Defense and Foreign Affairs ministries to start negotiating a "status of forces" agreement with international forces -. our credibility as a mobilizer of international coalitions when crises are reached and if we don't succeed and get it right in Afghanistan -.cnn. 64% of respondents said the U. Each has chosen. the control from Kabul may be tenuous and its structure less than ideal. Concurrently. even Iran by the fundamentalist Sunni Taliban. those responses were 69% .S. GlobalSecurity.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/09/08/afghan. Krastev. ministers demanded a review of international troops within its borders." The deployment fell short of the 30. Answering a Pew Research Center question from January. CNN.S. but it was more than some of Obama's anti-war supporters would have liked. who heads the U. 2003 [Nikola. our credibility as a force for stability. 9-8] Afghan government concluded its investigation. there was no alternative to America's leading the effort. as well as house searches not coordinated with Afghan authorities and the illegal detention of civilians. India by general jihadism and specific terror groups. "Our credibility as a peacekeeper. China. http://www.: Panel Urges Increased Support For Afghan Government.S. 2008 [Barbara Starr. a serious diplomatic effort is needed to address the major anomaly of the Afghan war. “War In Afghanistan”. Iran.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 37/148 Cross-X. in many respects. Withdrawal requires SOFA negotiations. and NATO troops. Wisner drew a parallel between the current situation in Afghanistan and U. More emphasis needs to be given to regional efforts and regional militia.forbes. while 25% said the country had made the wrong decision.S.globalsecurity.com Thursday File social reform is a long process. In January 2006. 23 February.html) Obama authorized sending another 17.S. India. foreign policy and will undermine the global position of Washington as a peacekeeper. Russia. A major effort is needed to encourage such an evolution.S. It says any further security deterioration in Afghanistan will have far-reaching implications for U. Pulling troops out of Afghanistan will delay other priorities – Afghanistan wants us to stay and will prolong negotiations Bowman 9 (Karlyn.com/2009/02/21/war-afghanistan-troops-opinions-columnists_obama. troops to Afghanistan to "stabilize a deteriorating situation. http://www.S. Each has substantial capacities for defending its interests. In all previous American ground-combat efforts. more than we are by the emergence of a base for international terrorism: Pakistan by Al Qaeda. so far.these points of credibility are all at issue.

government (68% called it excellent or good in 2005.S.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 38/148 Cross-X.. In Pew's January 2009 poll. 32% do now). and NATO/ISAF troops in their country. was winning in Afghanistan. said coalition forces should withdraw only after security has been restored. 36% said the U. nearly half of Democrats surveyed (48%) wanted to reduce U. should increase the number of troops in Afghanistan.S. respectively--said the number should be decreased. a figure down from 78% in 2006. Hamid Karzai (83% deemed him excellent or good in 2005. In Pew's poll. while 44% wanted to cut the numbers. (Drug traffickers were a distant second.S. by August 2008. In Europe. So when it comes to getting additional combat support from Europe. In CBS News/New York Times and ABC News/Washington Post polls. Obama's popularity on the continent is unlikely to trump its residents' pacifism.S. only 28% gave that response.com Thursday File and 20%. 18% of Afghans fourth survey of opinion of Afghans. Questions about troop levels asked by three major U. Fifty-eight percent of Afghans said the greatest danger their country faces is the resurgence of the Taliban. 52% do now). survey question.) Sixty-three percent support the presence of U. In another question. In the same poll. Americans were more positive about the military effort in Iraq than they were about that in Afghanistan. military forces in their country. .S. respectively. with the BBC and ARD German TV. 76% said it was going very or somewhat well for the U. In a December 2008 CNN/Opinion Research Corp. In its ABC News. In a March 2003 CBS News/New York Times poll. At the same time. the 2007 Transatlantic Trends/German Marshall Fund survey found 64% of Europeans supported international reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan. They were less enthusiastic. pollsters in mid January show that around one-third of Americans believe the U. at 13%. 30% of Europeans agreed that "under some conditions.S. found a sharp deterioration in views of Afghanistan's president. wanted to increase U. and the U. however." Comment On This Story In 2008. just 30% of Europeans expressed support. views about how the war is going have deteriorated. about helping train the Afghan police forces or combat troops. When asked about conducting combat operations against the Taliban. slightly fewer--28% and 29%.S. though. Transatlantic Trends found that more than 70% of respondents in the five European countries with the most troops in Afghanistan supported providing security for economic reconstruction projects and for helping to stem narcotics production.S. military presence. A strong plurality. 60% said it was not. in answer to another question. war is necessary to obtain justice.

Over the long term. and their support structure should be physically positioned according to the logic of global geography is very appealing. Conceptually.L. their facilities. indeed overwhelmingly. global defense posture could profit the nation’s security. Rarely to be found among these major tasks will be any large-scale updating. air. an efficiently designed. 2006 [Lincoln. The Global Defense Posture Review (GDPR) is such an undertaking. That he did it during wartime is extraordinary. Big Decision: Getting to “Yes” What with the profound implications of a posture change for allied countries hosting U. forces and the state of America’s diplomatic relations with them. globally managed force posture would optimize the flow of combat power along sea. solemnly made.S. this initiative is inescapably. Former US Special Envoy for Man-Portable Air Defense Systems Threat Reduction. this massive exercise in managerial housekeeping by the secretary of defense cannot be viewed exclusively as one cabinet executive’s effort to make more productive use of the people. assets. http://www. if not in monetary terms certainly in the ability of a finite force structure to deliver the maximum military benefit through the greater efficiencies and capabilities of the new global posture. the Rio Treaty. the Philippines. One could well imagine the Pentagon’s potential misgivings about placing this hugely ambitious venture at the mercy of other departments. a well-executed streamlining of the U. military’s posture at home and abroad according to a rational design reflecting contemporary security conditions should stand as a positive mark in his legacy. These are national commitments. even when the nature and location of the crisis had not been foreseen. and the sight of U.edu/Publications/Naval-War-CollegePress/Newport-Papers/Documents/26-pdf. and Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs from 2001-2005. braving the predictable resistance of settled constituencies from one end of the globe to the other. Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century. certainly none of his predecessors seriously attempted it.” Chapter 3: Politics and Diplomacy of the Global Defense Posture Review. his determination to rethink. and funding allotted to his department. and reposition the U. Bloomfield previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (1992-93). and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs (1988-89) among other policy positions in the Defense Department dating to 1981. depending on how the matter is handled. That Mr. “Reposturing the Force: U. The Department of State. Thailand.S. and the allied governments themselves.com Thursday File Links – Asia Reducing military presence prompts State Department intervention – focuses diplomatic efforts on minimizing effects of the aff. never mind foreign policy . that America is committed—via the North Atlantic Treaty. An Ambitious Concept The idea that U. redesign.S. the fielding of powerful and complex weapons systems.usnwc. To think otherwise would be to overlook the belief. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. they will of course cite the prosecution of wars both hot and cold. is noteworthy. He graduated from Harvard College and received a M. Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs (1991-92). A global posture realignment that involves moving large numbers of those sentries and their weapons inevitably begs the most urgent of security questions. the decision to embark on a global realignment was the president’s to make. Mr. and land routes from one region to the next. military force units. political in terms of its effect on the rest of the world. Such a concept would best allow future presidents to position viable military options to employ anywhere in response to a sudden danger on the shortest of notice. At the same time. their equipment. would inevitably make their voices heard before the Department of Defense’s new scheme based on geographic convenience and logistical efficiency could supplant longstanding basing patterns in foreign localities.aspx] An Ambitious Concept When historians look back on the Defense Department’s biggest undertakings during its first six decades of existence. and an annual budget now surpassing $400 billion. Korea. streamlining. and therefore runs the risk. Of all of Donald Rumsfeld’s actions during his headline-filled second tenure as secretary of defense.S.D. For all the calculations of greater efficiency and utility that commend the idea of reconfiguring America’s global military footprint.A. and Australia— to come to their defense in extremis. directly to the point of engagement. armed forces standing the watch in almost every latitude and time zone has calmed regional rivalries and dissuaded armed escalations for sixty years. approximately five thousand facilities spread all over the country and the world. Bloomfield. excites foreign anxieties in many quarters. and the promulgation of defense and security strategies to prepare for and deter threats to the national interest. or reconfiguration of an organizational empire that includes well over two million soldiers and civilians. resident in allied populations in more than fifty countries by latest count. Big Change. and bilateral security treaties with Japan.S.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 39/148 Cross-X. of perturbing the very stability that America’s global military presence is meant to ensure. Rumsfeld took on this monumental management task. and it embodied major foreign policy equities. without overly taxing the system.S.

In at least one country DoD doggedly sought to announce and implement a drawdown of military assets against that ally’s wishes and with an evident relish that required diplomatic damage control and led the president to withhold to himself the withdrawal decision. Taipei Times. Specifically true for Asian withdrawals. because it precludes some of the most aggressive scenarios in their own development. Countries in the region are in the early stages of planning against that eventuality. concerns in the State Department that some Department of Defense (DoD) officials. director of the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation. depends on it. Lohman. . policy bureaucracy as a whole. even to discussing prospective force reductions with allied countries. has their concern looked more plausible. At no time since the administration of former US president Jimmy Carter. however. however helpful to the cause.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. It wants a strong US. On the other hand.” http://www. by their manner. It is even good for the Chinese themselves. there were indeed some in the State Department who wanted nothing more than for the initiative to go away and who feared damage to alliances if it went forward. whose reaction to any disturbance of the diplomatic status quo might be expected to be one of resistance to change. there were varying perceptions about whether the advertised merits of particular changes under the Global Defense Posture Review would indeed redound to the long-term security benefit of the United States. The Obama administration needs to consider the full range of policy decisions and diplomacy in this light. US long-term security. Within the U. The region wants a “resident” US. by extension.com/News/editorials/archives/2010/05/16/2003473110] US allies in Asia and friends who depend on them have long wrung their hands at the prospect of US withdrawal. All the trips to the region and speeches in the world.taipeitimes.S. The future of US alliances and. such concerns were not limited to experienced regional specialists in the State Department. The concern was not imaginary. They need reassurance. will not fill the gap alone. 5-16-2010 [Walter. “Managing alliances in a new world.com 40/148 Thursday File bureaucrats. indeed opposition. might aggravate rather than defuse foreign anxieties were also not entirely misplaced.

net/news/asia-pacific/2010/02/20102133033203868. under a banner that read "Change! Japan-U. called for the removal of the US base [Reuters] Last month Campbell called on Japan to stick to the 2006 deal and relocate the US Futenma air base in Okinawa. as thousands marched through central Tokyo on Saturday.aljazeera. Relations". Meanwhile. Mizuho Fukushima. Campbell said the alliance with Japan was a "cornerstone" of the US engagement in Asia. In 2006. Campbell also reiterated Washington's desire to see that the US Marine Corps Air Station at Futenma be transferred to another area on the island by 2014. In written testimony before a Senate Foreign Relations Committee subcommittee on January 21. Kurt Campbell's 'Cornerstone' alliance Mizuho Fukushima. led by prime minister Yukio Hatoyama. the two countries signed a pact that called for the realignment of American troops in the country and for a marine base on the island to be moved to a less populated area. At a rally against the base. http://english. “US envoy to discuss Japan bases”. .com Thursday File Link – Japan Renegotiating the SOFA will be costly – internal political struggles in Japan will prevent quick passage of the plan. Hatoyama has repeatedly postponed his decision on the pact. He said the US is assisting the Japanese government. Local residents have long complained about noise.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 41/148 Cross-X. pollution and crime around the bases. But the issue is a difficult one for the prime minister to juggle. Al Jazeera 10 (1 February 2010. with members of his own government divided on how to proceed. But the newly elected Japanese government is re-examining the deal.html) US assistant secretary of state for East Asia is due to arrive in Tokyo on Monday for talks on the future visit comes after thousands of people from across Japan joined protests at the weekend against plans to relocate a US base on the southern island of Okinawa. opposition to the US-Japan pact is growing louder. The of American military bases in Japan. Last week. he pledged to resolve the issue by May. caught between increasing public opposition to US troops and its crucial military alliance with Washington. environmentalists and students called for an end to the US troop presence. a minister in Hatoyama's cabinet. pacifists. just before national elections. a cabinet minister. with members of his coalition government calling for all US troops to leave Japan.000 US troops are stationed in Japan. They gathered for a rally at a park. Decision postponed However. Labor unionists. with more than half on the island. told a crowd protesters that she wants to see the Okinawa base closed and US troops moved out of Japan entirely.S. Some 47. with its review of the Futenma relocation plan.

1/23/09. Korean WMD attack. Concerning the unpreparedness of the ROK military against a North they ask. He also sent a delegation to express his condolences to the family of Kim. Simply because the North Korean military is most delighted to see the OPCON transfer and the CFC dissolution. That is priority number one of the alliance at this juncture. Their insufficient knowledge of the North Korean nuclear threat largely results from deliberate propaganda of the Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun administrations. there was an auspicious example in this regard. military. States saved their country from North Korean aggression and also is the only foreign country the ROK has ever fought for in the history of Korea. the decision is worthy of delay. couldn't we postpone the decision until at least denuclearization of North Korea is completed? The OPCON transfer and the CFC dissolution is not a simple military issue but a complicated matter where hard power and soft power are combined. 6/24/10 through LexisNexis.at this moment.do? docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T9622716431&format=GNBFI&sort=RELEVANCE&startDocNo=1&resu ltsUrlKey=29_T9622562285&cisb=22_T9622716436&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=158208& docNo=1] The South Korean public was perplexed at the gushing of official reports and remarks from the United States.S. Writer for the Korea Herald.lexisnexis. Acc. “Transfer of troop control: A Bush legacy.” Korea Herald. Some even think that Washington is ready to accept the DPRK as a nuclear state as long as it is not committed to proliferation. Remembering that the United nuclear threat. They manufactured a false sense of peace and security while intentionally ignoring or making little of the Still. they question what the alliance is all about. General Sharp sent USFK officials at Incheon Airport to receive the remains of Kim Suk-im who died when an American jet fighter crashed into her San Diego home last December. His decision is in full harmony with Korean culture and emotion. . We We need to exercise similar wisdom. South Koreans question whether it is right to implement the decision the OPCON transfer and the CFC dissolution . Successfully exercising soft power in the alliance means that the United States should win over South Koreans by paying careful attention to what they believe. Using soft power is the ability to attract the South Korean people to the American side. should not send any hint of a wrong signal to Kim Jong-il. spreading quiet ripple effects on Korean society.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview. Recently.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 42/148 Cross-X. http://www. The vast majority of South Koreans don't question the authenticity of the professional judgment of the U.com Thursday File Link – South Korea Plan unpopular: Public wants US troops to stay until North Korea denuclearizes Cheon 09 [Seong-whun.

“There’s still time to lose in Iraq.remain to ensure that those weapons are never used against our Kurdish allies. troops out of Iraq. If the US doesn’t address Maliki’s postelection moves. Boot.000 to 15. One option might be to send some personnel and equipment via Turkey. AFP. SOFA goes til 2011 – withdrawing ahead of schedule means we’d have to negotiate a new one. troops also play a vital peacekeeping role. Bryant. U.csmonitor. “Troop withdrawal: Obama to end Iraq war by August 2010. where the two-lane Habur Gate crossing has been used quietly as a way to move supplies. Yet U.com/World/Global-News/2009/0227/troop-withdrawal-obama-to-end-iraqwar-by-august-201] Another challenge of the withdrawal is how to move the significant amount of equipment now in Iraq. Large troop reductions at a time of such political uncertainty will send a dangerous signal of disengagement and lessen America's ability to preserve the integrity of the elections. Obama added a new twist by ordering that troop strength be cut from the current 95.000 trailer-sized containers. Thus the Iraqi and American timelines are dangerously out of sync. which have grown in size and competence but still aren't capable of defending their airspace or performing other vital functions. If the new government isn't seated until the end of this year. That takes tons of diplomatic resources. The last American-Iraqi security accord took a year to negotiate. It is vital to have a continuing American military presence to train That should be no surprise considering that President and advise Iraqi security forces.000 private contractors from nearly 50 bases and installations. In keeping with the deal. Obama promised today that the remaining 50. 10-15. and 150.S.com Thursday File Link – Iraq Troop drawdown in Iraq will take years of intense negotiations. The possibility of miscalculation will grow once the Iraqi armed forces acquire the M-1 tanks and F-16 fighters that we have agreed to sell them. 5-9-2010 [Max. Bush administration called for the departure of all our soldiers by the end of 2011. officers in Iraq are right now implementing plans to draw down our troops to zero by the end of 2011.S. But Iraqi politicians now expect that no government will emerge before the fall. The presumption was that the drawdown would occur after Iraq had installed a new government. http://www. Lexis] Obama's overriding objective is to pull U. but that will only be possible after what is sure to be a protracted and tortuous negotiation with the new Iraqi government.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 43/148 Cross-X. there is a serious danger of war breaking out once American troops leave. Senior fellow in national security studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and contributing editor to the opinion section of Los Angeles Times.com/article/ALeqM5gXdwNmi_OvQcfCpWQ1s38VB-egqw] . 120. 5-9.000 aircraft and vehicles. it will be extremely difficult to conclude a treaty by the end of next year. They hope that some forces will be permitted to remain. Iraq still negotiating troop presence deal”. The Iraqi-American security accord negotiated by the George W. Kurdish politicians I met in Irbil warned that if Iraqi-Kurdish land disputes aren't resolved by the end of 2011 (and odds are they won't be). and Obama’s plan now indicates an earlier withdrawal of the bulk of the troops by August 2010.google.000 troops -. According to the Status of Forces Agreement. http://afp. CSM.S. a US-Iraqi deal settled on at the end of 2008. the billions of dollars spent and the thousands of lives lost could be for nothing” Los Angeles Times.” 2-27. which the Monitor recently tallied to include: 60.000 troops – a bigger number than Democrats were expecting – will leave by 2011. The delay in seating a government also endangers the possible negotiation of a fresh accord to govern Iraqi-American relations after 2011.000 to 50. It is all the more important that an American buffer -. a US military presence is allowed for up to three more years. 2009 [Christa Case. 2008 [“US. patrolling with Iraqi troops and the Kurdish peshmerga along the disputed Green Line separating Iraq proper from the Kurdish regional government. American officials expected that postelection jockeying would end by June at the latest.say 10.000 by September. But US units are supposed to draw back from Iraqi cities to US bases by this summer.

We are still talking to the Iraqis. sectarian and other problems as well as external factors. Iraqi government opposes immediate withdrawal before stability – diplomatic investments necessary in the absence of presence.com 44/148 Thursday File WASHINGTON (AFP) — The United States and Iraq are still negotiating the terms of an agreement on the future presence of US troops in Iraq next year. instituting an inclusive political process and implementing political and national reconciliation. forces to withdraw fully five years after the Iraqis take the lead on security nationwide. The Iraqis are still talking among themselves. officials have been much more cautious despite an improving security situation. But they have differed over some issues such as granting immunity to US soldiers for acts committed in Iraq. Iraq has proposed requiring U.” 7-18." State Department spokesman Sean McCormack told reporters. "The implementation of [the] political reform act as passed by Parliament in 2008 is a must.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.S. withdrawal. VOA. While Iraqis know the United States will be withdrawing its military forces.51voa. Allawi said Iraq's military remains unable to shoulder the security burden. troops to remain when an U." the White House said. and all U. "Without this monitoring. The act includes. "In the area of security cooperation. such as pressures from Iran. In the closest the Bush administration has come to acknowledging the WASHINGTON . and United Nations for thorough monitoring. but has been held up by the ongoing negotiations. the president and the prime minister agreed that improving conditions should allow for the agreements now under negotiation to include a general time horizon for meeting aspirational goals — such as the resumption of Iraqi security control in their cities and provinces and the further reduction of U. Upon returning from a trip to Europe last week. mandate expires at the end of the year. the White House said Friday. he said. yet these steps are very necessary for the stabilization of Iraq.S. but that condition could take years to meet." The accord. dubbed the Status of Forces Agreement. that could cause problems during and after the elections.S.com/words/latest-news/us-iraq-seek-troop-withdrawal-time-horizon] Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki have agreed that a security deal under negotiation should set a "time horizon" for meeting "aspirational goals" for reducing U. http://www. officials have been working in fits and starts on a formal Status of Forces Agreement to provide a legal basis for U. Robinson. forces gone by the end of 2011.S. wants to leave Iraq.html] Former Iraqi Prime Minister Allawi said the United States and Iraq have similar goals.S." Iraqi parliament member Saleh al-Mutlaq said the only way to ensure free and fair elections in his country is with a commitment by the U." Iraqi and U. Iraq seek troop withdrawal 'time horizon'.michaelmoore. but U.S. I . forces in Iraq. 2008 [“U.N. The deal was originally set to be signed in July. MSNBC. but not in turmoil. while Iraq seeks a path of prosperity and sovereignty where individual and minority rights are respected.President likelihood of some kind of timetable for future U. "Nothing is done until everything is done. And he said oustanding political and constitutional issues are also giving rise to severe tensions. Both US and Iraqi leaders have stressed that a deal is in the works. whether Washington has the right to detain Iraqi prisoners and on the future command of military operations on the ground. None of these steps has been acted upon.S.S. troop cuts. The U. Maliki had recently suggested a timetable be set for U. But. combat forces from Iraq. Saying the United States withdrawal should be "moral and responsible. among [other things] amending the Constitution." he said. is to put in place a deal for the future status of US troops in Iraq after the UN Security Council mandate for the multinational force expires on December 31. Withdrawal requires negotiation with Iraqi government. Everything isn't done.S.S. He declined to say whether the two sides were even close to a deal. “Iraqi Politicians Urge Cautious US Military Withdrawal. 2009 [Dan. the White House said "the goals would be based on continued improving conditions on the ground and not an arbitrary date for withdrawal.S. President Barack Obama has ordered all U. both Allawi and parliament member Saleh al-Mutlaq pointed to political.. And.com/VOA_Standard_English/VOA_Standard_English_33702. http://www. combat forces out of Iraq by the end of August of next year. senior US officials said Wednesday.S.S. US Defense Secretary Robert Gates said he was "actually reasonably optimistic we will come to closure on this in a very near future.” 9-18.

policy in Afghanistan. The Democratic representative of the U.. nor will we seek.' So this isn't just simply about supporting the Iraqi people and democracy in Iraq.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 45/148 Cross-X. More ev – SOFAs. permanent The United States and Iraq have agreed to start formal negotiations about their future relationship with the goal of finishing an accord by the end of July. as another example of Iraq's ability to stand on its own two feet. the subcommittee Chairman. The intimidation is already there. referring to the loss of diplomatic credibility after the US-led invasion of March 2003 that toppled Saddam Hussein.S. but the impact electoral problems in Iraq could have on the American public support for U." in contrast to other countries where it would have been a state secret. Chakmakijan. Pointing to questions about the legitimacy of the recent election in Afghanistan. “Gates: US won't promise to defend Iraq in accord”. a specialist in Middle East Affairs with the Congressional Research Service. support here in this country for involvement in Afghanistan will diminish because the American people will be saying. the arch-foe of Washington ever since matter what the differences between the United States and a neighbouring country. House of Representatives committee. "these are part of the reconciliation" process in the warthe 1979 Islamic revolution.reuters. Iraq had also taken a stand last month by staying away from a meeting of leaders in Qatar meant to shore up support for Hamas over the Gaza crisis. Calling the elections critical. especially after this agreement with the US and the way we debated it. said a large international observer presence is required before and during the vote. The United States. Roberts.. that's a key issue.S. And we have been getting so many warnings that we are going to be targeted. http://www. Senate panel.S." Zebari said Baghdad's often troubled ties with Damascus had "improved a great deal" . "We are thinking of reopening our [oil] pipeline through Syria to the Mediterranean. It's about Afghanistan and I dare say it's about the entire region. Vice President Joe Biden said on Thursday the United States will abide by any decisions by the Iraqi people on the U. government performance. "Sectarianism. outmaneuver and constrain rival factions. Lt." the foreign minister said. For Baghdad. tensions. also pointed to Baghdad's good ties with Tehran. Delahunt said he will use consultations in New York next week to generate support for international monitoring of the Iraqi elections. he said. "It used to be that way.com/article/idUSN06442345] "The status-of-forces agreement that is being discussed will not contain a commitment to defend Iraq and neither will any strategic framework agreement. forces." he said. Douglas Lute. withdrawing before stability devastates negotiating credibility." he said. our continued engagement despite their negativism. Katzman said sectarian tensions could reach a peak as Iraqis decide whether to hold a referendum on the U. presence in Iraq also will be part of the negotiations. and ethnic and factional infighting continue to simmer. referring to the scepticism of nearby countries.S. an Iraqi Kurd. Gen. The size of the long-term U. with economic issues high on the agenda.S. Within the Arab world. 2009 [Haro. the assassinations are already there. 2-17. "The impression has completely changed. Kenneth Katzman." he said." he said. 2-6. it didn't work." he said.S. “Iraq Sheds US Puppet in its Own Backyard. in the media. we have our vested interests and can make our own decisions. former Iraqi Prime Minister Allawi voiced concern about what he called "reversals in security" after a fragile period of improvement. The agreement will set the rules and legal protections under which U.com/index." he later told a U.” http://www. And look what happened. "We have proven that no battered country. 2008 [Kristin." Gates told a U. In his testimony to the subcommittee." he said in his office. bases in Iraq. not only for Iraq's future but for the region.com Thursday File believe that the election will be the same as happened before. "Syria's prime minister and foreign minister are coming over soon.S.S. and instead attended an economic summit in Kuwait.S. along with an upsurge in sectarian tensions. Congress to the United Nations. 'We tried it once.jordantimes." he said. U. Democratic Representative William Delahunt. In his testimony Thursday. he said. Reuters. but a strong United Nations involvement. stressing that Iraq's neighbours were now taking it seriously. over our constitutional reforms. forces operate in Iraq. in parliament. Staff Writer. Zebari. adorned with a plush Persian carpet. "All this has sent the right signals. warned that sectarianism in Iraq might worsen in the run-up to the elections. part of which was established in a Status of Forces Agreement reached during the Bush administration.S. the White House deputy national security adviser. that our people are going to be targeted. which should include not only the deployment of U. the [long-delayed] oil law. And many Iraqis' views and positions are colored by efforts to outflank. "If the election in January is unsuccessful. Zebari pointed to the opening of several Arab embassies in Baghdad and to the expected stream of diplomatic visits. Plus. "We do not want. withdrawal schedule.php?news=14364&searchFor=Iran] "We have political problems. has a moral responsibility and national security interest in ensuring fraud-free elections in Iraq. On the final day of a visit to Iraq. Delahunt worries not only about a deterioration in Iraq. staff writer for Agence French Presse. has said. military presence.

. troops. Iraq cannot be allowed to revert to an unstable state of sectarian strife. long way with them. a stable energy supply. he acknowledged Shiite Iran was influential in the new Iraq. of Iraq asserting more independence." he said. as well as a moral responsibility to the Iraqi people whom it freed from tyranny to do all it can to deliver sustainable peace and stability. Sheikh Mohammad Sabah Al Salim Al Sabah.foreignpolicy. to have a protocol of dealing with each other. http://lynch.S. to help shield our fragile democracy from foreign interference and forces that wish to undermine democracy. “Bush's finest moment on Iraq: SOFA. "They have influence. Moreover. that is wrong. Zebari contrasted the approach to the individual contacts dating back to the days of opposition to Saddam's regime when many of today's leaders of Iraq were exiled in Iran.com/posts/2009/01/18/sofa_not_the_surge) Peter Beinart today bravely repeats the emerging would-be conventional wisdom. Lynch Professor Political Science 09 (Marc. "We have come a long..” YaLibnan. It demonstrated a pragmatism and willingness to put the national interest ahead of partisanship that few of us believed he possessed. "They took that as a sign. I am Signing a Status of Forces Agreement requiring the full withdrawal of U. Renegotiating the SOFA for a rapid withdrawal will demand large amounts of attention – Allawi wants US troops to stay for legitimacy and will delay negotiations. “Editorial: How Iraq can fortify its fragile democracy. even the chances of success in the Israeli-Palestinian issue Renegotiating SOFAs for troop withdrawal requires considerable diplomatic capital – Iraq proves. I have a hard time imagining anything as tedious as rehashing those tired debates from the campaign about the "surge" -. It is willing to offer an alternative as Bush's finest hour in Iraq: the Status of Forces Agreement. "We are trying to formalise relations with them through embassies. who has served as foreign minister since Iraq's first post-invasion administration. associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University . leader of the Iraqiya List." he said. Such an outcome would insult the tens of thousands of Iraqi civilians whose lives were stolen in terrorist attacks and the thousands of U. which finished first in votes in Iraq’s national elections in March. through consulates.S.to be followed. nuclear containment. Vice President Biden recently said that the United States was “going to be able to keep our commitment” to reduce troop levels in Iraq to 50. is sending its deputy premier and foreign minister. he argues. "There are less infiltrators coming from the Syrian border. soldiers who sacrificed their lives.yalibnan. Rather than simply denounce everything Republican. culminating in Saddam's 1990 invasion. Joint oil fields. and international policy priority in the region — the planned troop withdrawals. where the Shiite majority is dominant. and secondly they felt that this will backfire on them. http://www.com Thursday File following their opening of embassies in late 2006. They haven't stopped but the Syrians have taken a number of measures. "To say that they dictate to us. I have to be honest." Turning to Tehran. dominated by regional influences. He served as prime minister from 2004 to 2005. ForeignPolicy. said Zebari. While I have long supported the withdrawal of U. Democrats should admit that the "surge" worked and -. 10 [Ayad. Allawi. it would also put at risk every U. no. demarcation of borders and the billions of dollars in war reparation claims will be among the thorny issues on the agenda. Washington still has unrivaled leverage in Iraq. "We told them this is a sovereign Iraqi decision. But our attitude [now] is to deal with each other as two sovereign countries.000 by this summer. military forces from Iraq on a fixed three year timeline demonstrated a real flexibility on Bush's part." With Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's visit last week .S. through official channels. with which Iraq has had troubled ties for decades. I sincerely hope that the United States will remain actively engaged in Iraq.S. largely thanks to Bush's acceptance of his own bargaining failure that Barack Obama will inherit a plausible route to successful .Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 46/148 Cross-X. by Iran's former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani the two sides are placing their diplomatic ties on a new footing.perhaps we could have another round of arguments as to whether the surge brigades arriving in the spring of 2007 caused the Sunni turn against al-Qaeda in the fall of 2006? But in the interests of post-partisanship." Zebari said." said Zebari. not the surge”." the minister said.com/2010/06/12/editorial-how-iraqcan-fortify-its-fragile-democracy/] we hope that the United States and the United Nations will help bring Iraq’s political blocs together to achieve a government in the national interest. 28 January 2009. Even Kuwait. I think.. to Baghdad for the first time. citing Tehran's strong opposition to the security pact with Washington.uniquely echoing a thousand recent op-eds -was President Bush's finest moment.

is among the reasons why Robert Gates will continue as Secretary of Defense. would retain a free hand in its operations. We didn’t even have enough troops to secure the arsenals and armories so that the terrorists just robbed all of those weapons. Iraq inevitably devastates capital – withdrawal can’t help. The Iraqis were also helped by the calender.withdrawal of U. .he didn't authorize Ambassador Ryan Crocker to sign off on the deal until after the Presidential election (on November 18). And what have we achieved? Saddam Hussein is gone. who was secular. And it’s . When negotiations began. Former Special Counsel to Pres. playing high-stakes chicken at the expense of American military planning for the coming year and at the risk of the Iraqi political system not having adequate time to ratify the deal. troops without any legal mandate to remain in the country and forcing the hand of American negotiators. Their tough line was encouraged by Iran. and sectarian killings. We still have enormous stockpiles of strategic weapons that have never been used. went into the SOFA talks intent on obtaining legitimacy for a long-term military presence in Iraq once the Security Council mandate ended. “Has the Iraq War depleted our military and diplomatic capital?” 5-22. Women in . including several rounds of upcoming style timeline for withdrawal. as his finest moment in Iraq. it was widely assumed that Bush would extract from the Iraqis an agreement which made the removal of U. withdrawal instead of a Bush/McCain.S. They used to be killed every day by stray American bombs. To his credit. . the December 31 deadline loomed large. But it also reflected Iraqi domestic considerations. troops entirely contingent upon American assessments of conditions on the ground. bases and a Korea-style presence for generations. When the Iraqis insisted on an Obama-style timeline for U. and there is no end in sight. . as stressed by many frustrated American commentators. .S.com Thursday File disengagement from Iraq. forces in three years. Granted. I might speculate.S. pointless.S. was in charge than they . . But at that point he bowed to the political realities in the U.S. and political wrangling going on inside Iraq. 2008 [Ted. he could have insisted on the latter. Conservatives now like to claim the SOFA as a "Bush-negotiated" success. endless invasion and occupation of Iraq. he hedged -.S. . He could have continued to push for this conception closer to the December 31 deadline. And thus I offer Bush's willingness to sign the SOFA mandating U. We have so messed up that country that I’m not sure even a democratic president can solve it. Yes. he was an evil man. withdrawal from Iraq. occupation under any name.com/ideas/1085] Question: Has the Iraq War depleted our military and diplomatic capital? Ted Sorensen: We haven’t spent it all. It’s the stupidest blunder in American foreign policy history. no permanent bases -. Finally.S. but we don’t have democracy there. But elections and an intensely strong popular Iraqi hostility to the U. I don’t believe that with the United States having taken the lid off Pandora’s box . But he didn't.style conditions-based aspirational time frame for U. We didn’t even have enough troops to secure the borders and keep the terrorists from pouring in from other countries. the Iraqi leaders clearly kept a careful eye on the American Presidential elections and used Obama's stance to strengthen their own hand in negotiations. and not the surge.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 47/148 SOFA negotiations looking for something entirely different than what emerged at the end.S. withdrawal. There were widespread discussions of permanent U. Obama can now work closely with the Iraqi government in managing the drawdown instead of spending his first months in office trying to wriggle out of an unacceptable deal. threatening to leave the U. and an absolute rejection of an Obama- Iraqi leaders. The Cross-X. to most everyone's surprise. and God willing will never be used.S. But we have stretched thin our conventional forces in a foolish. Iraqi women probably have fewer rights today than they had women Saddam Hussein. .S. Whether we stay for 50 years as John McCain may be necessary like Korea. Bush agreed to the Obama-style timeline for U. took a hard line in the negotiations.S. And here's where I will offer some sincere praise for Bush and his team. or stay for 50 months or weeks.S. withdrawal. there will still be bloodshed.than his own. and Iraq and agreed to a SOFA which far more closely matched Obama's avowed vision for Iraq -. no doubt. http://bigthink. But Bush entered the U. And they’re now being used against American troops. Kennedy. . Thanks to this pragmatism. . an assumption that the U. and violence. And this. than they have now when the United States put the Shiia in power. As negotiations dragged on. So what have we achieved? And there are more Iraqi civilians being killed every day. but now they’re killed today by other Iraqis. Sorenson. This would have fit with his administration's often-repeated preferences.

nuclear weapons: improved alliance relations. As a result. Because Russia weighs significantly in Turkish security calculations. weapons in Turkey. Turkey actually can play an important role in this complex process. all of the administration's positive interactions with Turkey have been beneficial: Washington has supported Turkey's role as a regional energy supplier and encouraged Ankara as it undertakes difficult political reforms and works to resolve regional diplomatic conflicts. By incorporating Ankara into its new European missile defense plans--intended to protect Turkey and other countries vulnerable to Iran's short. and Russian arsenals should involve forward-deployed nuclear weapons.. 2009 [Alexandra and Benjamin. The U. Washington would risk compromising Turkey as a NATO ally and key regional partner. in international relations at the University of Southern California (1979).” International Affairs 80.S.D.S. Turkey would obtain a stronger footing in alliance politics. The United States and Russia soon will seek ratification of a follow-on agreement to START. reductions to Russian strategic and nonstrategic nuclear arsenals also would help improve Ankara's peace of mind. More largely. Doing so requires a key factor that also is essential to paving the way toward withdrawal of U.S.4.and intermediate-range ballistic missiles--Washington could further shore up its military relationship with Turkey. nuclear weapons from Turkish soil. Preventing Turkey (and any other country in the region) from acquiring nuclear weapons is critical to international security. policy declined through the end of the George W. careful diplomacy will be required to improve U. given its long-established pragmatic relations and growing economic ties with Iran. First. Project manager at the Ploughshares Fund and a Truman National Security Fellow AND **Research assistant at the Ploughshares Fund and a graduate student at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy. Bell & Loehrke. it would help convince Ankara (and others) of Turkey's value to NATO and have the additional benefit of pulling Ankara into a closer relationship with Washington and Brussels. Ankara is in a position to positively influence Tehran's behavior. contain its chief security concerns. Turkey must be fully confident in NATO and U. This is consistent with a longstanding pattern in which most allies have deemed strategic nuclear matters a US responsibility and have deferred to US judgement about the appropriate . “The status of U.S. 2004 [David S. But to get there.S.-Turkish relationship cooled when Turkey refused to participate in Operation Iraqi Freedom. If used properly. and foster the necessary conditions for the removal of tactical U. Ship-based Aegis missile systems will be the backbone of the strategy. Ph. if the United States and European Union task Turkey with a bigger role in the diplomatic back-and-forth with Iran.S. this means intense negotiations to reassure extended deterrence commitments. any removal of the weapons in Turkey would need to happen in concert with efforts to prevent Iran from turning its civil nuclear energy program into a military one. As Princeton scholar Joshua Walker has noted.S. nuclear weapons in Turkey”Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists http://www.S. Bush administration. Critically.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 48/148 Cross-X. For its part. Turkey recently doubled its troop contribution to NATO's Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan--a boon to U.org/web-edition/features/thestatus-of-us-nuclear-weapons-turkey] A prescription for withdrawal. and the United States and its allies should seriously consider Turkish offers to serve as an interlocutor between Iran and the West. security guarantees. During any such negotiations. 11-23.-Turkish ties and to assuage Turkish security concerns. efforts there. Otherwise. including the U.S. And treaty negotiations in pursuit of further reductions to the U. with considerations left open for later deployments of mobile ground-based interceptors in Eastern Europe or Turkey. Ankara's potential influence with Tehran should not be underestimated. The political and strategic compasses are pointing to the eventual withdrawal of nuclear weapons from Europe--it's a strategy that certainly fits the disarmament agenda President Barack Obama has outlined. Empirically.com Thursday File Link – TNWs TNW withdrawal costs tons of diplomatic capital.thebulletin. Professor at the Naval Postgraduate School. “The US Nuclear Posture Review and the NATO allies. after which Turkish support for U. This cooperation could provide the bond with Washington and perception of security that Turkey seeks in the face of a potential Iranian bomb. Obama's election has helped to mend fences. In fact. Ebsco] Perhaps partly because of improved relations with Russia. July. and his visit to Turkey in April was warmly received. Yost. allied observers have expressed no noteworthy concerns about the effects of the NPR-mandated reductions in operationally deployed US strategic nuclear warheads on extended deterrence.S.

he was met with fierce political resistance. the United States is obligated to provide and maintain the nuclear weapon capability. Turkey hosts an estimated 90 B61 gravity bombs at Incirlik Air Base. right? Unfortunately. they argue that the weapons are "an essential political and military link" between NATO members and help maintain alliance cohesion. So in effect. and its apparent confidence in the adequacy of its strategic nuclear posture—would probably matter more in reassuring allies than the size of the force and its specific characteristics. and the debates about SALT II. Ever since the Soviet Union launched Sputnik in 1957 and developed the world’s first ICBMs. the alliance has been subject to periodic crises of confidence—in essence. TNW removal will meet with massive controversy – requires tons of diplomatic resources.thebulletin. If a debate emerged in the United States about the adequacy of the US strategic force posture in the context of national security (without necessarily considering extended deterrence for allied security).S. “The status of U. meaning nuclear-capable F-16s from other U. matters of national and international security are never that easy. pilots. Such a relaxed posture makes clear just how little NATO relies on tactical nuclear weapons for its defense anymore. James L. Bell & Loehrke. nuclear weapons in Turkey”Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists http://www. However. Aggressors are more likely to be deterred by NATO's conventional power or the larger strategic forces supporting its nuclear umbrella. 11-23. 2-23-2010 . ICBM vulnerability and ‘grey area’ systems such as the Backfire bomber in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Exceptions to this pattern have. the perceived political commitment of the United States—including its manifest intentions. tactical nuclear weapons. During the Cold War. and European officials still maintain that the political value of the nuclear weapons is enough to keep them deployed across Europe. the last time US policy regarding strategic nuclear forces became a significant topic in transatlantic security discussions. Supposedly. Gen. U.S. allied experts and officials would probably ask questions about the implications for NATO. however. arisen historically.continental nuclear retaliation from Russia. bases would need to be brought in if Turkey's bombs were ever needed. when NATO's top commander at the time. Project manager at the Ploughshares Fund and a Truman National Security Fellow AND **Research assistant at the Ploughshares Fund and a graduate student at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy.S. These doubts have been aggravated whenever Americans have expressed anxieties about US strategic capabilities— as during the ‘bomber gap’ and ‘missile gap’ controversies in the late 1950s and early 1960s. over the last few decades. Roadblocks to removal. fighter wing is based at Incirlik. 2009 [Alexandra and Benjamin. Jones. In 2005.S. did the weapons' strategic value. Germany. Fifty of these bombs are reportedly PDF assigned for delivery by U. the weapons are still deployed as a matter of deterrence.) Four years later. bombs located at bases in Belgium. given the risk of prompt inter. Japan and other beneficiaries of US nuclear guarantees. In fact. Washington positioned intermediate-range nuclear missiles and bombers there to serve as a bulwark against the Soviet Union (i. Thus. tactical nuclear weapons in Turkey are without military value or purpose.S.S. too." Removal of TNWs strongly opposed – forces negotiations after the plan. there are another 110 or so U. and the Turkish Air Force is reportedly PDF not certified for NATO nuclear missions. Guardian. to defend the region against Soviet attack and to influence Soviet strategic calculations). no permanent nuclear-capable U. supported the elimination of U. Turkey has been a quiet custodian of U. (In addition to the 90 B61 bombs in Turkey.. the United States has removed all of its intermediate-range missiles from Turkey and reduced its other nuclear weapons there through gradual redeployments and arms control agreements. But as the Cold War waned. but the crux of deterrence is sustaining an aggressor's perception of guaranteed rapid reprisal--a perception the nuclear bombs deployed in Turkey cannot significantly add to because they are unable to be rapidly launched. The Defense Department's 2008 report PDF on nuclear weapons management concurred: "As long as our allies value [the nuclear weapons'] political contribution. policy activists and politicians—as was the case in the late 1970s and early 1980s.com 49/148 Thursday File structure and level of US strategic nuclear forces. and in some circumstances more such exceptions could occur.S. In this event. Today.e. nuclear weapons in Europe. so. the weapons were to be fired as one of the first retaliatory shots. Any Europeans inclined to be worried about the credibility of US extended deterrence in view of the constraints on US strategic nuclear forces imposed by arms control or budgetary limits would probably be influenced by interactions with US experts. European doubts about America’s will to defend its allies.org/web-edition/features/thestatus-of-us-nuclear-weapons-turkey] For more than 40 years. the readiness of NATO's nuclear forces now is measured in months as opposed to hours or days. and the Netherlands.S.S. some U. In the event of a Soviet assault on Europe. and forty are assigned for delivery by the Turkish Air Force. That means removing them from the country should be simple. Italy. In particular.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.

the alliance has chosen to ignore calls for change and has eschewed public debate." a member of the group said. will say the roughly 200 remaining American B61 bombs on European soil should not be unilaterally withdrawn. Senior Fellow at German Institute for International and Security Affairs.000 tactical nuclear weapons. partly because of resistance from some former Soviet bloc states within Nato. 2008 [Oliver. They have been virulently opposed to the removal of the weapons which they perceive as a guarantee of a US presence in Europe against Russian aggression. http://www. three At the same time.cfm? fa=view&id=22533&prog=zgp&proj=znpp] there are a number of political reasons for not entirely foregoing U. They remain particularly interested in a strong nuclear deterrent vis-à-vis Russia and Iran.S.S. The group's word will not be final. the Netherlands. which play host to most of the B61 stockpile. In order to avoid yet another split in NATO on a crucial issue. At least some NATO partners continue to value this. More ev – negotiations necessary – allies oppose removal without Russian reciprocation. nuclear forces in Europe and nuclear sharing with Alliance partners demonstrate a shared risk within NATO and binds America to the old continent.guardian. Anders Fogh Rasmussen. Nuclear Forces in Europe to Zero? Yes. nuclear presence gives those NATO members participating in nuclear sharing a greater say in nuclear decision making or. In addition. Belgium. Diplomatic editor. have been silent on the issue in recent months. Eastern European and Baltic countries are also uneasy about removing what they see as a symbol of America's preparedness to protect them against attack. the group of experts. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "You cannot get rid of them without reciprocity. however.S. but have quietly opposed moves to withdraw them from the US bases on their soil. these political factors should not be neglected. but it will significantly strengthen the hand of those in the alliance who are opposed to a German-led initiative to remove the bombs unilaterally. “U. further points need to be taken into consideration. at least. Italy and Turkey. Nato clings to the outmoded notion that the 200 or so gravity bombs in five European countries are a necessary deterrent (against Russia. Moreover.com 50/148 Thursday File [Anne Penketh. which has an estimated 4. But this has never happened. Thranert.uk/commentisfree/2010/feb/23/nato-cold-war-nuclear-relics] It's decision time for the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. last month calling for a debate on the future of the tactical weapons.co. Italy and Turkey.S. mostly on its western flank. But Not Yet”. Luxembourg and Norway for its stance. Nato advisers say". which has an estimated 2. Germany won the support of Belgium. “Burying Nuclear Relics of the cold war” http://www.000 short-range nuclear weapons). which is confronted by a dilemma over the future of short-range US nuclear weapons in Europe. nuclear forces in Europe at this point in time. Concern over the B61 stockpile in Europe was heightened by a security breach two months ago when protesters managed to break in to an American base in Belgium where up to 20 of the bombs are thought to be stockpiled. the U. Guardian. the Guardian has learned. In particular. "US bombs must stay in Europe. Until now. 3-30-2010 [Julian Borger. the Netherlands. U. More ev. and foreign ministers from the five countries delivered a letter to the Nato secretary general.org/publications/index. chaired by the former US secretary of state Madeleine Albright. The function of these systems is to keep the peace and to prevent wars. . lexis] A Nato advisory group helping to draft a new strategy for the military alliance will recommend that US nuclear bombs stay in Europe.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. The status quo has prevailed with the US saying it is waiting for an allied request to remove the B61 bombs from Germany. The 11 experts will suggest that the bombs only be removed as part of a new treaty with Russia.carnegieendowment. more access to information. In a report due on 1 May.

in an article he had published by the Routledge publishing house in December 2005 under the headline "Isn't it decision to withdraw the weapons from Turkish soil. Germany. But Mustafa Time to Say Farewell to Nukes in Turkey?. both the political and the military leadership. Second. At this stage Turkish diplomatic sources decline to comment on what Ankara's policy will be if NATO presses and finally agrees on a unanimous Kibaroğlu. Sariibrahimoğlu ’09 (Lale. an estimated 480 tactical nuclear weapons remain deployed in five NATO non-nuclear-weapon states (Belgium. Italy. 4/4/09).com Thursday File Link – Turkey Hundreds of tactical nuclear weapons remain in NATO non-nuclear states. i. Officials have understandable arguments.. are for maintaining those weapons on Turkish soil to continue their deterrence capabilities in the region. Kibaroğlu.com/tz-web/detaylar. the Netherlands and Turkey) and in the United Kingdom. which includes the Balkans.” Today’s Zaman. too. Kibaroğlu states in his article that the attitude of Turkish officials toward US nuclear weapons deployed in Turkey for over four decades has been static. http://www. Canada and Greece ended their participation in nuclear sharing." gives an in-depth analysis of the rationale behind the Turkish reluctance over the idea to scrap US nukes on its territory.e. and Turkish officials have no plans to request the withdrawal.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 51/148 Cross-X. including Turkey. which also possesses an independent nuclear arsenal. under NATO nuclear-sharing arrangements.do? load=detay&link=174286&bolum=100 According to the US-based Arms Control Association. *****Internal Links***** .todayszaman. told Today's Zaman that Turkish decision makers. as to why these weapons should be retained in Turkey. the Middle East and the Mediterranean. an associate professor at Ankara's Bilkent University and an expert on arms control issues. “Turkey to face pressure over US nukes on its soil. Turkey sees the US as the backbone of deterrence in the region and does not favor the idea of scrapping the nukes from its soil. based on their threat analysis.

and the Obama administration is struggling over how to respond. 'We have to dive in. “Clinton: Critical time for American leadership”. Associated Press – 2/2 (Staff. 2011. more open to technology. World powers just concluded a fresh round of nuclear talks with Iran that produced no meaningful movement. she has traveled the globe. Clinton said officials would have to accept that positions and resources would need to be shifted to where they are needed most.sweep/index.'" is perhaps her toughest test yet as the nation's top diplomat.S. Clinton referred to the unrest gripping the Arab world in emphasizing the importance of U.com/2011/POLITICS/02/16/clinton.S.S.html?iref=allsearch) CJC "There were a first few moments of wonderment and then she said. Speaking to an audience of nearly every American ambassador.cnn.recent events in Egypt and certainly in that broader region . Events elsewhere in the world aren't looking any more promising. and his ouster could paralyze. Now it is becoming reality. talking about the need for countries to become more democratic.com Thursday File 2NC Ext ." She said U. Mubarak's support in the effort was critical. 2011. Labott – 2/16 (Elise Labott. where she said the volume of false claims about the United States makes WASHINGTON (AP) -responding difficult.remind us all how crucial it is to have top-notch leadership on the ground and how quickly the ground can shift under our feet. diplomacy needed to be more nimble.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_HILLARY_CLINTON_GLOBAL_CHANGES? SITE=NYMID&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT) CJC Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton stressed the need for stronger U. For two years.ap. recalled Cheryl Mills." Clinton told the gathering of diplomats at the State Department. from the fragile states of Afghanistan and Iraq to Pakistan. innovative and accountable than ever before.Dip Cap Finite – Egypt Egypt has taken full focus of US diplomacy. February 16. which were in free fall after a push for an Israeli settlement freeze reached a dead end. . Clinton's counselor and chief of staff. diplomacy in global hot spots.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 52/148 Cross-X. There is a tradeoff resources are limited. North and South Korea have been on a razor's edge for months. Feb 2. Clinton had hoped to start the year reviving peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians. “Can Clinton remake U. more open to the demands of the young. saying Wednesday the recent developments in Egypt and the Middle East demonstrate the critical need for America's global leadership. if not kill. diplomacy?”. The events trade-off with other issues. CNN Senior State Department Producer.S. http://www. killing four people. Bad timing for a tough test It Diplomatic focus is shifting to deal with the Egyptian crisis. Clinton was impatient to stop careering from crisis to crisis on the peninsula and engage Pyongyang in a meaningful way that both calmed the situation with South Korea and moved North Korea toward abandoning its nuclear ambitions. The timing could not be worse. "What's going on today . http://hosted. the administration's ambitious goal of achieving Palestinian statehood by the end of the year. Although tensions had cooled somewhat in recent months. "civilian power. The two countries exchanged artillery fire in November after North Korea shelled a South Korean island.

S. Clinton said officials would have to accept that positions and resources would need to be shifted to where they are needed most.S.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 53/148 Cross-X." Clinton said. diplomatic cables by the WikiLeaks website. "civilian power.S." Clinton told the gathering of diplomats at the State Department. saying Wednesday the recent developments in Egypt and the Middle East demonstrate the critical need for America's global leadership. Twitter and other forums to better project the . Focus on other issues trades-off with our ability to focus on the unrest in the Middle East. http://www. diplomacy in global hot spots.com Thursday File 2NC Ext – Dip Cap Finite – Middle East Diplomatic efforts must be focused on hot spots to deal with those crises. Referring to the release of confidential U. diplomacy needed to be more nimble.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jQd9Kvg9Uv2cvUt1Qs9k94zAgEuA? docId=185e3876cccf45b782bfa9245e30be45) CJC Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton stressed the need for stronger U.S. innovative and accountable than ever before. Speaking to an audience of nearly every American ambassador.google. where she said the volume of false claims about the United States makes responding difficult. protests and technological developments that have the capacity to change the lives of millions of people. Feb 2. “Clinton: Critical time for American leadership”." She said U. Clinton referred to the unrest gripping the Arab world in emphasizing the importance of U. She urged ambassadors to embrace the potential of Facebook. 2011. Associated Press – 2/2 /11 (Staff. from the fragile states of WASHINGTON (AP) — Afghanistan and Iraq to Pakistan. "We are all in unchartered territory. Clinton said ambassadors needed to adapt to a "fast-changing world" that includes theft. "What's going on today — recent events in Egypt and certainly in that broader region — remind us all how crucial it is to have top-notch leadership on the ground and how quickly the ground can shift under our feet.

Traditionally. Montana. Each new issue in the bag weighs it down.perc. xi-xvii). lessening the focus on other issues and even creating conflicts between issues. securing vital resources. and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. J. and ensuring access to foreign economies (Holmes and Moore 1996. .pdf] Greater international environmental regulation can increase international tension. The daily conduct of diplomacy through U. supporting our allies.S. The Greening of U. and ensuring access to foreign economies. Traditionally. “Because diplomatic currency is finite . securing vital resources.S. . J." Diplomatic capital is finite – issues trade off. Foreign Policy. Fall.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 54/148 Cross-X. As countries must watch over more and more issues arising in the international policy arena. 46) writes. Foreign policy is a bag of goods that includes issues from free trade to arms trading to human rights. Bozeman. Anderson is executive director of Political Economy Research Center ("PERC")The Center for Free Market Environmentalism. Bishop Grewell is a research associate with PERC. Because diplomatic currency is finite—clearly. it is critically important that the United States focus its diplomatic efforts on issues of paramount importance to the nation.S. 427) CJC Foreign policy is a bag of goods that includes issues from free trade to arms trading to human rights. “The Greening of Foreign Policy. they will stretch the resources necessary to deal with traditional international issues. such as the sale of ballistic missiles or border conflicts between nations.org/pdf/ps20. "Because diplomatic currency is finite . these priorities had been opposing hostile domination of key geographic regions. supporting our allies. missions and representatives is essential in articulating U. Int'l L. page 46] Diplomacy is the first option in addressing potential threats to U. foreign countries and officials cannot be expected to endlessly support and promote U. concerns and priorities to foreign nations. As countries must watch over more and more issues arising in the international policy arena. Fellow in the Center for International Trade at Heritage Foundation. it is critically important that the United States focus its diplomatic efforts on issues of paramount importance to the nation. .com Thursday File 2NC Ext – Dip Cap Finite Diplomatic capital is finite – each new issue trades off with existing issues Anderson & Grewell – 01 (Terry L. concerns—it is critically important that the United States focus its diplomatic efforts on issues of paramount importance to the nation. Each new issue in the bag weighs it down. Increased environmental regulations could cause countries to lessen their focus on international threats of violence such as the sale of ballistic missiles or border conflicts between nations. national interests and expressing U. Diplomatic capital is finite – plan prevents focus on more important issues. lessening the focus on other issues and even creating conflicts between issues. interests and eliciting cooperation and support for those interests abroad. 2001 2 Chi.S. Stanford University.S. 2001 [Terry and Bishop. As Schaefer (2000.” http://www. they will stretch the resources necessary to deal with traditional international issues. Anderson & Grewell. Diplomatic capital is finite – each new issue trades off with another one. these priorities have been opposing hostile domination of key geographic regions. 2000 [Brett. Schaeffer. . Increased environmental regulations could cause countries to lessen their focus on international threats of violence.S. As Schaefer writes. .

. Bishop. these priorities have been opposing hostile domination of key geographic regions. Executive Director of the Property and Environment Research Center.. December 2000. they will stretch the resources necessary to deal with traditional international issues. former research associate for PERC.” . Foreign policy is a bag of goods that includes issues from free trade to arms trading to human rights. “The Greening of Foreign Policy”. As countries must watch over more and more issues arising in the international policy arena. J.pdf) Greater international environmental regulation can increase international tension. Each new issue in the bag weighs it down. and Northwestern Law School. 46) writes. . He is a graduate of Stanford University. “Because diplomatic currency is finite . http://www. As Schaefer (2000. lessening the focus on other issues and even creating conflicts between issues.com Thursday File Anderson and Grewell 2000 (Terry L. supporting our allies. Traditionally. and ensuring access to foreign economies. Increased environmental regulations could cause countries to lessen their focus on international threats of violence such as the sale of ballistic missiles or border conflicts between nations.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 55/148 Cross-X. it is critically important that the United States focus its diplomatic efforts on issues of paramount importance to the nation.perc. securing vital resources. the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies. PERC Policy Series: PS-20.org/pdf/ps20.

civil affairs. and DoD works particularly closely with the Department of State to support State’s core role in communicating with foreign governments and international publics. force employment. information operations. Chief among these are policy implementation. the effects of these activities support national objectives. Effective strategic communication also requires the orchestration of multiple lines of operation.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 56/148 Cross-X. public affairs. and stability operations. and where adversaries often enjoy the advantage of greater local knowledge and calibrate their activities to achieve sophisticated information objectives.S. CT. 2010) As part of the U.com Thursday File 2NC Ext – Diplomatic Capital Key – Plan Cost The plan would have to be spun to control perceptions – this requires extensive diplomatic focus. where population and stakeholder beliefs and perceptions are crucial to our success. government's integrated civilian-military efforts to interact effectively with a variety of audiences and stakeholders. The Quadrennial Defense Review in 2010 (QDR Report prepared for Congress. . Together. Effective strategic communication requires close collaboration across interagency lines at all stages. Strategic communication is essential in COIN. and public diplomacy and engagement. DoD will continue to improve key capabilities that support strategic communication. February 1.

Egypt.us. policy and interests in the region will largely depend on who ends up in power. with what's going on today. not just in Egypt but in the host of other countries on the verge of transformation. Margaret Scobey. she joked. "From the theft of confidential cables to 21st century protest movements.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article/562996/201102111907/Egypts-Flight.com Thursday File Military K2 Secular Transition US must support the military to ensure there is time for political parties to get organized to prevent a rise of the Muslim Brotherhood. February 2.egypt/index. we are all in uncharted territory. diplomats Wednesday that "we are all in uncharted territory.S. Clinton said "we have a tough road ahead. The U. some of which we are only beginning to understand. the . Clinton noted that the U. http://www. Clinton added: "There are too many forces at work. http://www.S. to development breakthroughs that have the potential to change millions of lives. CNN Foreign Affairs Correspondent. killing critical diplomatic and military relationships. Nobody expects that worst-case nightmare to come through.htm) CJC "For Islamists. to WikiLeaks disclosures of diplomatic cables." US must ensure a peaceful transition now to prevent the unrest from rising creating a scenario for radicalization that would trigger war between Israel and Iran.com/2011/POLITICS/02/02/us. US diplomacy is stretched to the brink and need full focus to deal with a situation that can change quickly. however.cnn. “Clinton warns of 'uncharted territory' in wake of Egypt unrest”. was not able to attend the State Department meeting. forcing the closing of the Suez Canal and allowing Iran fill the vacuum. not a culture of governance.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 57/148 Cross-X. recent events in Egypt and certainly in that broader region. But it's the only "democracy" the Brotherhood will back. ambassador to Egypt.S.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/02/02/sweep. “Editorial: Obama Botched Egypt — Here's How To Fix It”. because "we Washington (CNN) -figured it would be quiet. quietly helping Egypt's military stay in power for as long as it takes to ensure that Mubarak's successor isn't an Islamist enabler.challenges/index. bringing together U. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told a gathering of U. That could even trigger a most dangerous war between Israel and Iran. from congressional pressure to cut the State Department budget and foreign aid. CNN – 2/2 (Elise Labott and Josh Levs. should now make the best of a bad situation. ambassadors from around the world." Even as news reports Wednesday showed protesters clashing on the streets of Cairo." Clinton called for the unprecedented "Global Chiefs of Mission" meeting several months ago.S." And he exposes the preposterous State Department delusion that because alQaida operatives "figure the Brothers are soft. Investors Business Daily – 2/11 (Editorial Staff.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS %3A+Politics%29) CJC In the midst of mass uprisings and historic change in the Middle East. 2011." she said. (they) remind us all of how crucial it is to have top-notch leadership on the ground. they obviously must be moderates — so we can work with these guys!" Majority rule without liberty amounts to the tyranny of the majority — a chilling prospect in the Mideast." "As we see." Pointing to a range of challenges. extremist Islamic factions in Egypt. In a doomsday scenario. 02/11/2011. Too many cross currents and complexities. Regardless of the outcome. McCarthy warns that Effective diplomacy is critical to deal with the Egyptian crisis. http://www. February 2. The meeting was scheduled for early February.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS %3A+Politics%29) CJC The future of U.S.diplomatic. democracy is a tool for acquiring power. And how quickly that ground can shift under our feet. 2011. Tunisia and even Jordan could come to power. Dougherty – 2/2 (Jill Dougherty. “The Sweep: The risk of democracy in the Middle East”. CNN Staff.investors. Turning serious at the end of her remarks.

which is seems to be the catchphrase of the week for Middle East analysts. That could give way to a permanent resistance that creates even more pressure for chance. . Supporting the status quo could embolden leaders to hold on.com 58/148 Thursday File Obama administration has concluded that it must try to be on the right side of history. possibly becoming even more oppressive. further radicalizes the Arab street and creates even more anger at the United States.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.

Myriad youthful opposition groups have been holding almost round-the-clock meetings to craft and present a unified statement of their demands for reform to the military. apparently including its long-standing peace accord with Israel. the epicenter of the extraordinary revolution that has transformed Egypt and the political map of the Middle East. political journalist. On Sunday. Although former President Mubarak ceded power to the army.S. Egypt’s autocratic ruler for almost 30 years. Since then. whose elections last fall have been widely denounced by domestic and international critics as fraudulent. have been stressing that “they are going to do what the people want. however. February 14. A western diplomat said that it was believed that former president Mubarak was still in his residence at the Egyptian seaside resort of Sharm el-Sheikh. military police in their traditional camouflage uniforms and red berets have been guarding the U. it issued yet another communiqué announcing that it had suspended the constitution that has been structured to give Egypt’s president almost unlimited terms in office and authority and inhibits political opposition.foxnews. Most of Egypt’s civilian police officers fled their posts on January 28 CAIRO. 2011. but western diplomats in Cairo said they had no independent information about the state of his current condition. it remains unclear exactly what part the army will play in its role as the transitional government that Egyptians have demanded should lead to elections by September. Diplomats. including Secretary of Defense Field Marshall Mohammed Tantawi. It also dissolved Egypt’s parliament. In Washington. The officers. which Egyptian sources have identified as stomach cancer. On Saturday. . government ministries. the diplomat said. http://www. added that the military had still not disclosed when the three-decade-old emergency law granting the government the right to arrest and hold people without formal charges or judicial oversight would be lifted.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 59/148 Cross-X. including by the police. In a recent meeting with western diplomats.com/world/2011/02/14/egyptianarmy-calls-military-reservists-help-peace/) CJC The Egyptian Army today called up thousands of military reservists as soldiers cleared Tahrir Square. and other strategic facilities throughout the country.” the diplomat said. Egypt’s ambassador said this morning in a television interview that Mubarak’s health was deteriorating.com Thursday File A2: Military Not Relinquish Power Diplomats are working with the military now. There have been labor strikes across the country. Miller – 2/14 (Judith Miller. the military government announced that it would abide by all treaties. Embassy. the Egyptian military officials leading the country through an unchartered period of political transition are stressing that they do not want to govern Egypt indefinitely or. Mubarak has flown twice in as many years to Germany for treatment of an undisclosed medical condition. one diplomat suggested. had repeatedly indicated that the army has been acting in good faith and has assured foreign governments that it does not seek a longterm role in governing the country. A western diplomat said that senior army officers. The call-up also reflects continuing political tensions in the country following the forced resignation of President Hosni Mubarak. They don’t want to rule indefinitely. be responsible for Egypt’s crushing problems. the state-run television center. Egypt -in the face of overwhelming numbers of protesters throughout Cairo and other Egyptian cities. “Egyptian Army Calls Up Military Reservists to Help Keep Peace”. who demonstrated on Monday demanding higher wages and better working conditions. The call-up appeared to be related to the army’s continuing need to maintain stability in the absence of the civilian police.

. Turkey’s military. That.politico. when I was serving in the Carter administration. In Tunisia as well. He served on the National Security Council dealing with Middle East affairs in the Nixon and Carter administrations.W." and "In the Words of Our Enemies. 2011. the hated dictator Gen. efforts to apply gentle pressure must now be followed by a more forceful message to those who can get Mubarak’s attention in a way that we have not. but the military was actually given guarantees by the new Chilean democrats that its corporate interests . Bush. He is the author of several bestselling books including "Inside the Asylum. This is not an unfamiliar role for militaries in moments of transition. “Time for Obama to press Mubarak”. In Chile.S. Babbin – 2/2 (Jed Babbin served as a Deputy Undersecretary of Defense under George H. But rather that it can be the guarantor of a peaceful transition to a new. The crisis needs to be brought to an end soon. Whether it falls this week or in coming months. February 2. Since 1979. But a few calls from Defense Secretary Robert Gates. Quandt is a politics professor at the University of Virginia. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mike Mullen. the U.com/printstory. as is most likely. we seem to be witnessing an encouraging example of the military helping with the transition to a new order. And that can only happen if Mubarak steps down. With one exception. The key now is not a lot of public statements from the president.cfm?uuid=1690BD3B49D6-43ED-ADDD-DE8AD70C9948) CJC So. http://www.com/articles/2011/02/02/egypts_future_will_be_decided_by_the_milit ary. should be on the phone with their Egyptian comrades to offer assurances of aid and support if they choose to stand against a radical Islamic regime. “Egypt's Future Will Be Decided by the Military”. a discredited dictator was eased out (with American urging) and the military stayed on to provide stability for the new democracies. Obama has said enough and is just about on target. If the Egyptian military acts soon — and in accord with the sentiment of the Egyptian people — they will emerge as a strong.S-style military.com Thursday File Dip. Frank Wisner. And there is nothing America can do to prevent that. Many of our most senior generals have longstanding relationships with their Egyptian comrades. with a few bumpy moments. the military remains on the sidelines and allows a radical regime to take power. U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 60/148 Cross-X. Augusto Pinochet was ousted. if the president permits them. perhaps CIA Director Leon Panetta to their counterparts might help. Quandt – 2/2 (William B. could weigh in as well — with the simple message that the prolonged transition envisaged by Mubarak does not seem viable.html) CJC It is not clear that Mubarak's regime will survive the week. In the past. the United States has completely reequipped and trained a new. the kind of bond that can only be achieved by serving side by side in training and military exercises. And we have paid for it – about $1 billion per year. Diplomacy with the military is key to avoiding extremist from taking over the government. So Egypt need not turn out like Iran — where the shah’s military split and went down with him.S. He actively participated in the Camp David peace negotiations in 1978.". February 2. respected force in the new Egypt. Egypt .realclearpolitics. similarly in the Philippines and Indonesia.and even Pinochet’s person – would be respected as long as they did not block the transition to democracy and limited their role to upholding security. it is time for President Barack Obama to take the next step — to cash in on the close military-tomilitary relationship that has been forged between the United States and Egypt over the years. http://dyn.like Turkey before it . Not that the new president of Egypt should. If.may pass into the radical Islamic sphere. The military is the only institution in Egypt that can convince him to do so – and assure him the dignified retirement from power that he apparently craves. has looked to the Egyptian military as a partner primarily on regional security and anti-terrorism issues. has played such a role. emerge from its ranks. Egypt's immediate future will be decided by the Egyptian military. U. Now that military is the key to Egypt’s near-term future. K2 Transition – Military Diplomacy with Egyptian military is critical to ensuring a stable transition. leaving a vacuum that allowed for a great deal of post-revolutionary violence and radicalization. and only that. And the experienced former ambassador to Egypt. 2011. democratic order. Now we need to think of it as a partner in helping to consolidate Egypt’s democratic transition. or will. These officers. would be an effective American influence on Egypt's immediate future.

S. leading to the 1967 Arab-Israeli war. http://www. Two factors will control the result of the crisis that now envelops the Mubarak regime. one of his protégés. and not to crackdown on the protesters. When Nasser died in 1970. to prevent Egypt from being subordinated by its Islamic neighbors. 2011. The first is the Egyptian military. has been exerting pressure on the Egyptian military not to take sides. http://online. and perhaps the motivation.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 61/148 Cross-X.html? mod=rss_Politics_And_Policy) CJC Dunne. It was Sadat who braved the Arab currents to sign the Camp David Accords. Wall Street Journal – 2/3 (JONATHAN WEISMAN And ADAM ENTOUS. likewise. even if only to quell the fighting. officials believe for now the military it will stay on the sidelines.com/article/SB10001424052748703960804576120064121963244. Staff Writers. said the White House needs to convince the Egyptian army to step in. Only the Egyptian military can ensure that the new government is not radical. Mubarak aside.W. He is the author of several bestselling books including "Inside the Asylum. Bush. “White House Charts a New Plan”. Anwar alSadat.html) CJC The only stabilizing force is the Egyptian military which has the power. Sadat was assassinated by Muslim radicals in 1981 because of his willingness to make peace with Israel in the Camp David agreement. took over. restore order and set up the new government. and the parallel Iranian goal of establishing a Muslim caliphate hasn't taken hold in Egypt yet because of the three men who have ruled it for nearly sixty years. experts said. Babbin – 2/2 (Jed Babbin served as a Deputy Undersecretary of Defense under George H. “Egypt's Future Will Be Decided by the Military”." and "In the Words of Our Enemies. officials believe the violence would worsen if the military intervened. the U.com/articles/2011/02/02/egypts_future_will_be_decided_by_the_milit ary. an Egypt expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and an informal White House adviser.S. many of whom have critiqued the Obama Michele administration's stutter-step embrace of regime change in Egypt. is watching what happens with the demonstrations. Nasser was a pan-Arabist.S. U.wsj. Since last week. fervently attempting to ally Arabs in a unified front against Israel. February 2.realclearpolitics. who seized power in 1952. 2011. Mubarak swept into power at Sadat's death.independently and in combination with Egyptian Islamists . Some U. The Mubarak regime is a lineal descendant of Gamel Abdel Nasser's. leaving it to the police and security forces to quell violence between anti-government protesters and Mubarak supporters. FEBRUARY 3.".to turn Egypt into another Syria or a satellite of Iran. . The military. Pan-Arabism has since disappeared except from the mind of Libya's Muammar Qaddafi. and the demonstrators are waiting for Washington to push Mr. however. sees the Egyptian military as likely the only institution that can guide a smooth and inclusive transition. Dunne said. Israel.com Thursday File Diplomacy with Egyptian military is critical to a stable transition government. "Nobody wants to be the first to make the hard decisions. The U." Ms. the first real peace agreement between Israel and a formerly-hostile neighbor.S. is in a difficult spot with the protestors. The second is the efforts of Iran and Syria .

2011.com/2011/WORLD/africa/02/03/egypt." Rubin said. . when the fall of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi led to the rise of the fundamentalist regime still in power today.. policymakers try to prevent Egypt from following the path Iran took after 1979.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 62/148 Cross-X.S. Egypt talk ways to 'move' political transition forward”.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss %2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS%3A+Politics%29) CJC The real difficulty. http://www.obama. The U.cnn. will come in the months ahead as U. February 3. “Official: U.reaction/index. CNN – 2/3 (CNN Wire Staff.S.com Thursday File Sustained Diplomacy Checks Extremist Rise Continued diplomacy will be critical to ensure democratic elections and prevent extremist take over. but at the same pushing to ensure armed extremist militias aren't allowed to claim the mantle of democratic legitimacy.S. needs to make clear the Egyptian elections happen "come hell or high water. Rubin said.

Obama phoned Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh to follow up his pledges of reform with concrete actions. http://www.another close U.S. Reuters – 2/3 (Steve Holland and Susan Cornwell Staff. .reuters. Continued pressure on other allies for reform is critical to checking back spillover. The White House said Obama also told Saleh it is imperative that Yemen take forceful action against al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. “U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 63/148 Cross-X.com Thursday File Dip Cap Checks Spillover Diplomatic capital is not limited to Egypt in the crisis. Clinton spoke to Jordan's King Abdullah -. in talks over possible Mubarak departure”.on Thursday to discuss Egypt and to express support for his own recent reforms.S. Feb 3 2011. part of a wave of change by authoritarian governments across the Middle East seeking to head off Egypt-style unrest. ally -.com/article/2011/02/04/us-egypt-usaidUSTRE71175920110204? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Amid concerns that a wave of protests that erupted in Tunisia and then Egypt could spread to other Middle Eastern capitals.

Ambassador Margaret Scobey.com Thursday File A2: No Influence U. the government would go to no ends to secure more. long-lasting depression. http://www. ambassador to Cairo made contact with prominent Egyptian political activist Mohamed ElBaradei on Tuesday to discuss a political transition in Egypt. nuclear watchdog. The have the influence necessary to support the transition. State Department is busy brokering a peaceful transition to democracy in Egypt now. and four more likely to have them there could be major consequences of another world war.com/article/2011/02/01/us-egypt-usa-elbaradei-idUSTRE7107ZJ20110201? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC The U. Department of State said. Editor of the daily Peak Oil News and the weekly Peak Oil Review. like Russia or China. few understand the proximity of the crisis. extend the Hilliker evidence. With five offical nations having nuclear weapons. The Peak Oil Crisis: A Mid-Year Review.S.com/commentary/national/6896-the-peak-oil-crisis-a-mid-year-review. The first thing that will happen after an economic collapse will be war over resources.S. one of the most highly respected analysts of peak oil issues in the United States. Most of us have no thoughts about the issue other than the current price of a gallon of gas.S. there would of course be retaliation. The United States has little to no capacity to produce oil. the retired head of the U.S. and with five or more countries with nuclear weapons *****Impact Scenarios***** ***Suez Canal Shell*** .html) six in ten surveyed by Pew believe that the economic situation will be better soon and that the recession is only temporary." the U.reuters. 2011. closing the Suez Canal would cause oil price shocks and these Rising oil prices destroy the economy Whipple 7/14/2010 (Tom.S. and the mission has been especially busy in the last several days to help convey our strong support for an orderly transition. If the United States stopped getting foreign oil. increasing oil prices and eventually oil shortages within the next few years are as inevitable as the sunrise.N. envoy in Egypt spoke with ElBaradei: statement” Feb 1. "Our embassy in Cairo maintains an active outreach to a wide range of political and civil society representatives in Cairo. Once one nation launches a nuclear weapon. State Department said in a statement. "One such contact was between the ambassador and Mohamed ElBaradei today. The problem is that few are willing to consider seriously the accumulating evidence that Interestingly. these wars would most likely involve nuclear weapons. Retired 30-year CIA analyst who has been following the peak oil story since 1999. and many other economies into a deep. FNCP. Mohamed ElBaradei." it CAIRO (Reuters) added in the statement sent to Reuters in Cairo.S. The United States currency will become useless and will have no way of securing reserves. Nearly everyone will admit that continuing oil shortages and that high (above $100 a barrel) oil prices would be devastating to the prospects for economic recovery and that persisting very high (say above $200 a barrel) oil prices would send the U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 64/148 Cross-X. it is totatlly dependent on foreign oil. if there were a war with any other major power over oil. referring to U. has demanded President Hosni Mubarak quit office and said he was ready to play a role in any shift to a democratic system in Egypt. http://www. C. Extinction Broward 9 ((Member of Triond) http://newsflavor. Reuters – 2/1 (“U.S.fcnp. Among those who appreciate that the world's petroleum resources are finite.com/opinions/will-an-economic-collapse-kill-you/ AD: 7-7-09 )ET Now its time to look at the consequences of a failing world economy. A. This alone vividly illustrates how poorly the true state of the global economic situation is understood and the size of the shock that most of us are in for.com. the U.

The risk is so high that acting to save the economy is the most important issue facing us in the 21st century.com 65/148 Thursday File there would most likely be a world nuclear war.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. .

reuters. as anxieties rose that protests in Egypt could spark instability across the Middle East and disrupt oil shipments through the Suez Canal. envoy in Cairo”. and other countries. If the canal were closed it would create price shocks and market disruption. Jan 31.com Thursday File Close Suez Canal = Price Shocks Egypt crisis is raising oil prices for fear of closing the Suez Canal. chairman of the U. warned on Monday that the escalating protests in Egypt could affect U.S. Senator Jeff Bingaman. satisfied the situation in Egypt would not escalate into widespread violence or turmoil. The broad Standard & Poor's 500 Index closed up 0.com/article/2011/02/01/us-egypt-usaidUSTRE70R6A920110201?pageNumber=1) CJC The crisis is taking its toll on oil markets. http://www. urges Egypt's Mubarak do more. Reuters – 1/31 (Steve Holland and Andrew Quinn.S.S. 2011. Senate's energy panel. Egypt's Suez Canal allows the transport of crude oil and liquefied natural gas bound for the U.286. Brent crude oil futures surged to $101 a barrel. at 1. access to affordable energy supplies. economy and rising earnings. “U. .12. U.77 percent.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 66/148 Cross-X. Gibbs said no disruptions had been reported in the Suez Canal. a 28month high. stocks rose as investors focused on the expanding U.S.S.S. Staff. National security aides at the White House were monitoring the effect the unrest and uncertainty in Egypt may have on oil and financial markets.

“Egyptian Unrest Leaves U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 67/148 Cross-X. .com Thursday File Egypt K2 Oil Markets Egypt key to global Oil flows. Harder – 2/1 (Amy Harder reports on energy and the environment for National Journal and moderates an expert blog on the topic as well.com/member/daily/egyptian-unrest-leavesu-s-over-an-imported-barrel-20110131) CJC Egypt is in a unique position in the oil supply chain even though it produces only 700. The Suez Canal and Sumed pipeline serve as vital transportation arteries for global oil shipments.000 barrels a day.S. http://www. longer routes. February 1.nationaljournal. Over an Imported Barrel”. 2011. For now. no evidence suggests that either of those avenues will be blocked. but Pumphrey said the risk could compel individual shippers to slow down shipments there or choose alternate.

html?hpid=topnews) CJC Concern was also growing about possible interference in traffic along the Suez Canal.washingtonpost. February 2. http://www. Gen. the Egyptian military's chief of staff. U. 2011.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 68/148 Cross-X. both internally and throughout the Suez Canal area. “As crisis deepens in Egypt. Sami Enan. and Mullen spokesman Capt. John Kirby said the chairman "expressed confidence in the Egyptian military's ability to provide for their country's security. through which much of the West's imported oil travels.S. Adm. Washington Post – 2/2 (Karen DeYoung Washington Post Staff Writer. Mike Mullen. 'can't dictate events'”. had his second conversation this week with Lt.com/wpdyn/content/article/2011/02/02/AR2011020206619.com Thursday File Egypt – Military K2 Suez Canal Egyptian military can prevent the closing of the Suez Canal with US influence." . chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

every recession except one was preceded by a sharp rise in oil prices.com Thursday File Impact Magnifier: Saudi Arabia Continued instability in Egypt risks revolt and uprising in Saudi Arabia causing megaoil shocks causing the global economy to nose dive. a new oil crisis might be upon us. petrodollar-funded entitlement programs. If the Saudis should decide to emulate their Egyptian brethren. Saudi Arabia not only is the world’s largest exporter. Luft – 2/3 (Gal Luft is executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security. through which 1. Inspired by the events elsewhere in the Sunni Muslim world. And not even because it controls the Suez Canal. http://www. Since World War II. For decades. It isn’t. A new oil shock would cause our economy to nose-dive back into a recession. February 3. Not because Egypt is a major oil exporter.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 69/148 Cross-X. studies show. about 5 percent of the overall global tanker trade. And instability in that oil kingdom is how mega-oil shocks are made. capable of supplying the market when others falter. this social contract could face a challenge at the worst possible time — when the House of Saud’s top echelon is ill and geriatric. Saudi monarchs have placated their subjects with cradle-to-grave. Egypt produces less than 1 percent of the world’s oil. “What if Saudi Arabia erupts?”.com/news/stories/0211/48698. it also holds 70 percent of the world’s spare production capacity. this could be as devastating as a second heart attack is for a fragile patient just recovering from a first one. In other words. Egypt is relevant to the oil market because it may be a bellwether for the disgruntled masses in Saudi Arabia. experts have warned about the fragility of the House of Saud. there will be no one to save the neighborhood. travels daily. while taming the Wahhabi establishment through charitable contributions to religious institutions worldwide.html#ixzz1Cz60q1YQ) CJC The demonstrations in Egypt and elsewhere in the Arab world could well be the harbinger of an excruciating oil crisis.politico. 2011. To curtail their opposition. . Saudi Arabia is the oil market’s only firefighter.8 million barrels. But if the fire station is on fire. In today’s economy.

it would be a profound strategic mistake that would lead to far greater instability and war in the world. US hegemony solves all problems Thayer 06 Associate Professor in the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies at Missouri State University [Bradley. — rather than overt force to achieve U. textbook models don't exist. who want no foreign military commitments. There are two seapower to defend its interests.com/2011-02-15/news/fl-egyptsoft-power-obama-editorial-a20110215_1_soft-power-egyptian-people-egyptian-revolution) CJC The euphoric moment is passing. As such. selective engagers." Remember that term? Remember the soft power vs. December (lexis)] A grand strategy based on American primacy means ensuring the United States stays the world's number one power--the diplomatic. military commitments to centers of economic might. Such is the case with international relations and diplomacy — cookie-cutter.sun-sentinel. it's the Egypt case that stands front-and-center now. Many claim a sense of pride that they achieved their aims non-violently. B." In the previous issue of The National Interest. Proponents of retrenchment focus a great deal on the costs of U. It is an opportunity that can't be missed. Christopher Layne warned of these dangers of primacy and called for retrenchment. Egypt will be a test case for US soft-power. That leverage must now be used skillfully to assist and ensure a fair election that places a legitimate government in place. in any of its guises. economic and military leader. With few exceptions. or because the maintenance of primacy will lead the United States into the trap of "imperial overstretch. And. Bush administration. US must remain flexible and constantly engaged to influence the military to ensure a transition to democracy. imperil American security and deny the United States and its allies the benefits of primacy. action--but they fail to realize what is good about American primacy. But critical issues in any discussion of America's grand strategy: Can America remain the dominant state? Should it strive to do this? America can remain dominant due to its prodigious military. in fact. And Egypt offers an opportunity for soft power — thanks to the courage and resilience of Egyptians who rallied peacefully for almost a month to prompt Mubarak's departure. even those who advocate retrenchment acknowledge this. that will remain the case for the foreseeable future. and offshore balancers. At the outset of this discussion. The totality of that equation of power answers the first issue. and can't be allowed to be lost. he rates nowhere near the likes of a brutal despot like Saddam Hussein. one could argue that soft power's limits were sadly on display during the protests in Iran last year. In Defense of Primacy. however. what would have worked — or was needed — in one country would not automatically apply to another. either because the United States lacks the power to maintain its primacy and should withdraw from its global commitments. economic and soft power capabilities. must be avoided. February 15. http://articles. The ouster of Hosni Mubarak from power last week opens an opportunity to position the Egyptian "revolution" as a soft power showcase. That means the next phase in Egypt will have begun — the transition to a democracy — and that will be an opportunity for the United States to employ and test "soft power.S. it's critical to acknowledge that Egypt is not Iraq. who want a modified form of selective engagement that would have the United States abandon its landpower presence abroad in favor of relying on airpower and retrenchment. Nonetheless. The United States has much influence with Egypt's military leaders. Failure would undermine US soft-power moving forward. As disliked as Mubarak became. owing to aid and training the past few decades. who want U. Far from it.S. If the United States adopted such a strategy. It is their achievement that opened the window to international soft power. Barring some disaster or tremendous folly. “Egypt 'revolution' opens opportunity for U. And certainly as an alternative to the Iraq model employed by the George W. Military leaders say they will run the country until elections are held in six months. the benefits that stem from it are not. They include isolationists. hard power debate of recent years? The soft power phrase became vogue in the aftermath of serious divisions over the war in Iraq.S. The price and risks of primacy are reported in newspapers every day. Sun-Sentinel – 2/15 (Sun Sentinel Editorial Board. It is the Egyptian people who are the true heroes of this peaceful uprising. Those arguing against primacy claim that the United States should retrench. soft power”. The United States has overwhelming military capabilities and wealth in comparison to other states or likely potential alliances. The National Interest. So the debate revolves around the desirability of maintaining American primacy.S. In the aftermath of Mubarak's resignation. If so.1 Those arguing for a grand strategy of retrenchment are a diverse lot. 2011. the Egyptian military has suspended parliament and the country's constitution. A GRAND strategy of ensuring .Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 70/148 Cross-X. The euphemism denotes the use of non-military tools — diplomacy. Egypt could be the watershed for an Obama doctrine of soft power. etc.com Thursday File ***Leadership Shell*** A. aid. and Egypt's revolt will recede from the front pages. and they are more than justified to feel vindicated. objectives.

Cuba--it is an anti-U. That is a ratio of almost 17 to one (85 to five). China is clearly the most important of these states because it is a rising great power. A remarkable fact about international politics today--in a world where American primacy is clearly and unambiguously on display--is that countries want to align themselves with the United States. one of which is America's ability to create coalitions of like-minded states to free Kosovo. away from American soil. primacy--and the bandwagoning effect--has also given are the "Gang of Five": China. or any country. history shows that threats must be confronted. U. Never before in its history has this country. These interests include ensuring that critical resources like oil flow around the world.S. as we shall see. retrenchment will make the United States less secure than the present grand strategy of primacy. then the conventional and strategic military power of the United States is what protects the country from such threats. invade Iraq or to stop proliferation through the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI ). If there is no diplomatic solution to the threats that confront the United States. on-the-ground presence that cannot be achieved by offshore balancing.com 71/148 Thursday File American primacy takes as its starting point the protection of the U. Doing so allows the United States to operate with allies outside of the UN. Iran. Such influence comes in many forms. does not mean that others will respect American wishes to retreat. homeland and American global interests. in most cases. Cuba.S. North Korea and Venezuela. This is because threats will exist no matter what role America chooses to play in international politics. For three of the "Gang of Five" cases--Venezuela. Indeed. Afghanistan and Iraq stand in contrast to the UN's inability to save the people of Darfur or even to conduct any military campaign to realize the goals of its charter. Indeed. as Barry Posen has noted. They so many allies. Khan proliferation network are in sharp relief to the typically toothless attempts by the UN to halt proliferation. U. And when enemies must be confronted. allowing the United States to shape the behavior of states and international institutions. Of 192 countries. But China may not be confident those strategies would work. countries like India. for example. In contrast. where it can be stymied by opponents. You can count with one hand countries opposed to the United States. primacy is secured because America.S. In the anarchic world of the animal kingdom. that the global trade and monetary regimes flourish and that Washington's worldwide network of allies is reassured and protected. 84 are allied with America--their security is tied to the United States through treaties and other informal arrangements--and they include almost all of the major economic and military powers. the world's airspace and outer space--allowing the United States to project its power far from its borders. while denying those common avenues to its enemies. and so it is likely to refrain from testing the United States directly for the foreseeable future because China's power benefits. but because doing so allows them to use the power of the United States for their own purposes--their own protection. thus abandoning its commitments or making unconvincing half-pledges to defend its interests and allies. and the robustness of the United States' conventional and strategic deterrent capabilities is increased. from the international order U. Thus. The other states are far weaker than China. stabilize Afghanistan. predators prefer to eat the weak rather than confront the strong. power. But even Beijing is intimidated by the United States and refrains from openly challenging U. a strategy based on retrenchment will not be able to achieve these fundamental objectives of the United States. This requires a physical. Iran. had us extensive influence in international politics.S. American-led wars in Kosovo.S. The quiet effectiveness of the PSI in dismantling Libya's WMD programs and unraveling the A. As a consequence. regime that is the source of .8 to one of states aligned with the United States versus the Soviet Union. and a big change from the Cold War when the ratio was about 1. China proclaims that it will. in part because they shoulder some of its burdens. a key tenet of the Bush Doctrine is to attack terrorists far from America's shores and not to wait while they use bases in other countries to plan and train for attacks against the United States itself. or to gain greater influence. Of course.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. Whether they are terrorists. Of course. commands the "global commons"--the oceans. Allies are a great asset to the United States. such as toward Iran. including asymmetric strategies such as targeting communication and intelligence satellites upon which the United States depends. it is no surprise to see NATO in Afghanistan or the Australians in East Timor. do not agree with all policy choices made by the United States. To make such a declaration implies weakness and emboldens aggression.S.2 This is not an advantage that should be relinquished lightly. a strategy based on primacy focuses on engaging enemies overseas. Washington cannot call a "time out". but New Delhi is friendly to Washington. rogue states or rising powers. Simply by declaring that the United States is "going home". Only the "Gang of Five" may be expected to consistently resist the agenda and actions of the United States. the costs of power projection for the United States and its allies are reduced. Q. if necessary. at present. Indeed. this is not out of any sense of altruism. and it cannot hide from threats. resort to other mechanisms of challenging the United States. primacy creates. The same is true of the anarchic world of international politics.

India and Pakistan. Lal now recognizes that the only way to bring relief to desperately poor countries of the Third World is through the adoption of free market economic policies and globalization. such as in Darfur. Lebanon. one gathers from the argument. peace and stability have been great benefits of an era where there was a dominant power--Rome. a change of regime in Caracas. but nonetheless. liberal democracies are more likely to align with the United States and be sympathetic to the American worldview. Kuwait. American power gives the United States the ability to spread democracy and other elements of its ideology of liberalism. Indonesia and Australia. a former Indian foreign service number of democratic states around the world has been the growth of the global economy. should not even be attempted. Rather. their people would be better off. labeling such an effort a modern form It is the obligation of Bush's critics to explain why democracy is good enough for Western states but not for the rest. The United States created this network not out of altruism but for the benefit and the economic well-being of America. As country and western great Ral Donner sang: "You don't know what you've got (until you lose it). With its allies. democratic states are good for their citizens as well as for advancing the interests of the United In addition. Now even the Middle East is increasingly democratic. power behind it. along with the growth in the the United States has labored to create an economically liberal worldwide network characterized by free trade and commerce. Economic spin-offs foster the development of military technology. Indeed. stabilizing influence on America's interests in the short run is open to question. Indeed they do. particularly the poorest states in the Third World. South Korea and Japan.S. particularly war's worst form: great power wars. primacy. as John Owen noted on these pages in the Spring 2006 issue. where 8. By all accounts. During the Cold War." Consequently. The Dark Ages followed Rome's collapse. voted in a critical October 2004 election. Of course.com Thursday File the problem. in general. Washington fostered democratic governments in Europe. it is important to note what those good things are. in Iraq in January 2005. but democratic progress has been made in Algeria. Doing so is a source of much good for the countries concerned as well as the United States because. more transparent and more likely to want to resolve things amicably in concurrence with U.4 As a witness to the failed alternative . Wars still occur where Washington's interests are not seriously threatened.S. 40 percent of them women. Iraq. Asia and the Caucasus. it is because they are more open. most notably France and West Germany. respect for international property rights. even though remnant Taliban forces threatened them. The first has been a more peaceful world. leadership. a robust monetary regime. spreading democracy helps maintain U. leadership reduced friction among many states that were historical antagonists. and mobility of capital and labor markets. They may not yet look like Western-style democracies. Latin America. This economic order forces American industries to be competitive. the liberal order created by the United States will end just as assuredly. the march of democracy has been impressive. Perhaps the greatest testament to the benefits of the economic network comes from Deepak Lal. The first free elections were held It was the military power of the United States that put Iraq on the path to democracy. the Palestinian Authority and Egypt. which are facilitated through American primacy. Critics have faulted the Bush Administration for attempting to spread democracy in the Middle East. American primacy helps keep a number of complicated relationships aligned--between Greece and Turkey. The United States has brought democracy to Afghanistan. power. Third. States. Morocco. Cross-X. Today.S. Perhaps democratic Arab states would be more opposed to Israel. Britain or the United States today. power. Retrenchment proponents seem to think that the current system can be maintained without the current amount of U. Hitler succeeded the order established at Versailles. maximizes efficiencies and growth. This is not because democracies do not have clashing interests. the country itself is not intrinsically anti-American. growing democratization--is directly linked to U. Everything we think of when we consider the current international order--free trade. This is not to say it fulfills Woodrow Wilson's vision of ending all war. In addition to ensuring the security of the United States and its allies. increasing respect for human rights. In that they are dead wrong and need to be reminded of one of history's most significant lessons: Appalling things happen when international orders collapse. who started his career confident in the socialist ideology of post-independence India.S. Without U. U. And so. but a Pax Americana does reduce war's likelihood.3 So. diplomat and researcher at the World Bank.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 72/148 relations. Tehran or Havana could very well reorient THROUGHOUT HISTORY.S. whether democracy in the Middle East will have a peaceful or of tilting at windmills. and benefits defense as well because the size of the economy makes the defense burden manageable.S. Abandoning the positions of his youth. The economic stability and prosperity that stems from this economic order is a global public good from which all states benefit. once states are governed democratically. Israel and Egypt. the likelihood of any type of conflict is significantly reduced. American primacy within the international system causes many positive outcomes for Washington and the world. Second. helping to ensure military prowess. Scholars and statesmen have long recognized the irenic effect of power on the anarchic world of international politics. and.5 million Afghans.

S. earthquake. as one might expect from those witnessing the munificence of the United States. the U. because it helped people in the wake of disasters. diverting helicopters fighting the War on Terror in nearby Afghanistan to bring relief as soon as possible. American generosity has done more to help the United States fight the War on Terror than almost any other measure.S. As the War on Terror is a war of ideas and opinion as much as military action. Before the tsunami. 80 percent of Indonesian public opinion was opposed to the United States. Whether in Indonesia or Kashmir. UN peacekeeping operations depend on the United States to supply UN forces. de facto. About 20.S. as the world's police.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 73/148 finally. polls of Pakistani opinion have found that more people are favorable toward the United States than unfavorable. In fact. military. Cross-X. . an enormous earthquake struck Kashmir.S. the United States also provided financial aid to Pakistan. military to South and Southeast Asia for many months to help with the aftermath of the disaster. military has participated in over fifty operations since the end of the Cold War--and most of those missions have been humanitarian in nature. In October 2005. while support for Al-Qaeda dropped to its lowest level.S. airmen and marines responded by providing water. for the United States humanitarian missions are the equivalent of a blitzkrieg. disease treatment and prevention as well as forensic assistance to help identify the bodies of those killed. No other force possesses the communications capabilities or global logistical reach of the U. The United States is the earth's leading source of positive externalities for the world. The U. and in poll after poll. military could have accomplished this Herculean effort. 80 percent had a favorable opinion of America.S. The United States was the first to respond with aid. The U. military conducting a humanitarian mission. but it also had a real impact on the War on Terror. flood. Two years after the disaster. the global paramedic and the planet's fire department. On the day after Christmas in 2004. volcanic eruption. food. killing about 74. drought.000 U. To help those in need. typhoon or tsunami. has been willing to use its power not only to advance its interests but to promote the welfare of people all over the globe.000 people and leaving three million homeless. Lal is one of the strongest academic proponents of American primacy due to the economic prosperity it provides. it left a lasting impression about America. and. Fourth and the United States. Whenever there is a natural disaster.S. military is the earth's "911 force"--it serves. the money was well-spent When people in the Muslim world witness the U.000 people. Indonesians still have overwhelmingly positive views of the United States. sailors. Washington followed up with a large contribution of aid and deployed the U. a tremendous earthquake and tsunami occurred in the Indian Ocean near Sumatra.com Thursday File economic systems. there is a clearly positive impact on Muslim opinion of the United States. For the first time since 9/11.S. Indeed. military responded immediately. after it. killing some 300. in seeking primacy. soldiers. the United States assists the countries in need. medical aid. Only the U.

-Egyptian relationship may well be redrawn. the network is now being celebrated for insuring that the world can watch Egyptians make history. Turkey’s role as a key arbiter among Middle East players. Analysts say a more democratic Egyptian government will have to be responsive to a public that may oppose such special and close ties with Washington. policymakers must grasp if the United States is to exert influence and remain relevant in this “new” Middle East.S.cfm?uuid=EC73B7BB-6C56-41A0-8F05-AD2986A02AE3) CJC President Hosni Mubarak’s speech Tuesday is unlikely to assuage the hundreds of thousands of Egyptians gathered in Cairo’s Tahrir Square. A.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 74/148 Cross-X. Other trends are not as positive from an U.html?hpid=topnews) CJC Egypt's government has been a critical partner for U. Washington Post Staff Writers. Lebanon. signals a new era in regional relations.politico. Once reviled by many in the West as a supporter of Al Qaeda. the Muslim Brotherhood is likely to gain influence if free For decades. sharing information on extremist groups such as al-Qaeda and working hand in glove on counterterrorism operations. the Arabic language satellite network that has broadcast from Egypt for the past eight days. They provide critical intelligence for our success to prevent attacks. and possibly positioned to reprise this role as Lebanon once again contends with mounting tensions. It is spearheading a free trade zone encompassing Turkey.com Thursday File Ext . not least because of the impassioned calls for dignity and respect by people whose governments have long treated them with contempt. Their demands are not the “bread and butter” issues that typify Arab world street protests.S. These protests are remarkable. Yet. With the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak. Muslim Brotherhood takeover would close that Intel window.Leadership US effective response to Egypt is critical to maintaining regional ties in the Middle East critical to its leadership. a bridge to Europe. ***Terrorism Shell*** . President Barack Obama’s call to the “win the future” in his State of the Union address resonates deeply regarding America’s role in the Middle East.S.com/printstory. demanding an end to his regime. a staunch American ally.S.washingtonpost. Qatar has also played a key mediating role – helping to bring together Lebanon’s fractious factions in May 2008 when the country appeared on the verge of another civil war. Washington is facing a new reality in the Arab world. Institute of Peace. Moreover. Washington Post – 2/13 (Mary Beth Sheridan and Joby Warrick. the United States must recognize this shifting regional alignment if it is to leverage any of these changes to its advantage. Instead. Indeed. This seminal moment in the Middle East demands that the United States be bold and innovative rather than relying on a reflexive response to the changes—both dramatic and subtle—that are now re-shaping that region.S. “Winning the future in a new Mideast”. http://www. Continuing partnership with Egypt is critical to counterterrorism operations globally. 2011. 2011. and an important model of Islamist democracy to the Arab world. vantage point – namely the ascendance of the militant Shiite group Hezbollah in Lebanon accompanied by Syria’s resurgence there from the nadir of its influence in 2005. February 13. February 1. It owns Al Jazeera. http://dyn. Rather. Jordan. In particular. Turkey has also exerted its influence to promote regional trade and investment.S. These rolling popular protests are the most dramatic examples of the region’s changing tides. Syria.-Egyptian counterterrorism work”. and Yemen reflect tectonic regional shifts that U.com/wpdyn/content/article/2011/02/12/AR2011021203581. The stakes are nothing less than the future of American leadership in the region. “Mubarak resignation throws into question U. Now the future of that cooperation is in question. an end to torture and repression and for legitimate governments that can represent their aspirations. intelligence agencies. The unprecedented popular demonstrations Egyptian that already expelled one Arab leader in Tunisia and may well be on the verge of unseating another regime in Egypt mark a watershed in the region from which there is no return. and Jordan that could help spur badly-needed economic growth and job creation. The small Arab sheikhdom of Qatar is also exerting disproportionate influence. the contours of the U. The dynamics now spawning protests in Algeria. A regional re- alignment is shifting the contours of power and influence from the Levant to the Gulf. Yacoubian – 2/1 (Mona Yacoubian is senior adviser to the Center for Conflict Management at the U. these are pleas for greater freedoms.

Two myths in particular must be debunked immediately if an effective counterterrorism "best practices" strategy can be developed [e.S. Unlike their historical counterparts. "How will cooperation with the United States on counterterrorism develop in the view of these new constraints? I would argue the space will contract. that on September 11. weapons. military operation in Iraq eliminated Saddam Hussein's regime as a state sponsor of terror. it behooves those countries victimized by terrorism to understand a cardinal message communicated by Winston Churchill to the House of Commons on May 13. and the exploitation of the media by terrorist propaganda and psychological warfare. if not eliminated completely. a former State Department Middle East expert who is now at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. government that follows the rule of the Caliphs. It is not surprising. & Director @ Inter-University for Terrorism Studies. particularly in democratic societies. Washington Times.S. provided the root causes of conflicts . contemporary terrorists have introduced a new scale of violence in terms of conventional and unconventional threats and impact.are addressed. August 28. “Terrorism Myths and Realities”. the U. Israel's targeted killing of Mohammed Sider. The argument here is that law-enforcement efforts and military retaliation inevitably will fuel more brutal acts of violent revenge. This traditional rationalization of "sacred" violence often conceals that the real purpose of terrorist groups is to gain political power through the barrel of the gun. The conventional illusion is that terrorism must be justified by oppressed people seeking to achieve their goals and consequently the argument advanced by "freedom fighters" anywhere. Prof. Hamas.g. are still "shocked" by each suicide attack at a time of intensive diplomatic efforts to revive the moribund peace process through the now revoked cease-fire arrangements [hudna]. Thus. analysts say. but its stated objective is to "unite all Muslims and establish a The second myth is that strong action against terrorist infrastructure [leaders. the Hebron commander of the Islamic Jihad. 2001.. despite the collapse of the Oslo Agreements of 1993 and numerous acts of terrorism triggered by the second intifada that began almost three years ago. Israel and its citizens. operational command and control] will only increase terrorism.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 75/148 Cross-X. if this perception continues to prevail.. . such as lack of a universal definition of terrorism. victory in spite of terror. The first illusion is that terrorism can be greatly reduced. Jerusalem] but primarily to destroy the Jewish state. Islamic Jihad] and secular entities [such as Fatah's Tanzim and Aqsa Martyr Brigades]] wish not only to resolve national grievances [such as Jewish settlements. past experience provides useful lessons for a realistic future strategy. regional and global security concerns. Similarly. weak punishment of terrorists. radiological. propaganda." The assassination of Ismail Abu Shanab . nuclear and cyber] with its serious implications concerning national.political.a top Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip who was directly responsible for several suicide bombings including the latest bus attack in Jerusalem disrupted potential terrorist operations. In sum. Likewise. there is no survival." Clearly.and long-term deterrence of terrorism. Palestinians religious movements [e. to understand the magnitude and implications of the terrorist threats to the very survival of civilization itself. double standards of morality. right of return. victory however long and hard the road may be: For without victory." said Aaron David Miller.g. social and economic . policies. recruitment. Even the United States and Israel have for decades tended to regard Last week's brutal suicide bombings in Baghdad and Jerusalem have once again illustrated dramatically that terrorism as a mere tactical nuisance or irritant rather than a critical strategic challenge to their national security concerns. therefore. The Islamist group has renounced violence but is openly hostile to Israel and may call for more independence from U. training." encourage further terrorist attacks. Americans were stunned by the unprecedented tragedy of 19 al Qaeda terrorists striking a devastating blow at the center of the nation's commercial and military powers. the religionization of politics. Jacob) the international community failed. For instance. strengthening international cooperation]. The internationalization and brutalization of current and future terrorism make it clear we have entered an Age of Super Terrorism [e. 1940: "Victory at all costs. defused a "ticking bomb." should be tolerated if not glorified. Osama bin Laden's international network not only opposes the presence of American military in the Arabian Peninsula and Iraq. biological. B. as well as scores of other countries affected by the universal nightmare of modern terrorism surprised by new terrorist "surprises"? There are many reasons. there is the danger it will paralyze governments and thereby The prudent application of force has been demonstrated to be an effective tool for short. The impact is extinction. Similarly. in violation of fundamental human rights of the noncombatant segment of societies.g. thus far at least. funding. including misunderstanding of the manifold specific factors that contribute to terrorism's expansion. For example. chemical. Alexander ‘03 (Yonah-. Why are the United States and Israel.com Thursday File and fair elections are held. "give me liberty and I will give you death. Lexis.

“Mubarak resignation throws into question U. the United States had a window into the Soviet Union through Iran. And Egypt served as a counterweight to Iran. they are the best. "We have the same kind of window into Iran and other countries via the Egyptians. counterparts.S. since the United States and many governments no longer wanted to be associated with it. Washington Post Staff Writers. noted that during the Cold War. "Whatever happens next.html?hpid=topnews) CJC Egypt's intelligence cooperation is extensive." he said. according to analysts. then a strong U. attacks. Washington Post – 2/13 (Mary Beth Sheridan and Joby Warrick. Egypt's security services have worked closely on operations with their U. such as Gaza and Sudan. however.S. government does not. Mubarak's government played an important role in containing the Palestinian group Hamas. "A different government in Cairo may not see Iran as quite the same kind of threat. Human rights groups have denounced the practice because of the notorious torture record of those nations' security services.com/wpdyn/content/article/2011/02/12/AR2011021203581.com Thursday File Egypt Intel = Best There is no other country that can replace Egypt’s intelligence system. ally. 11. Or they might just look for ways to use Iran as a foreign-policy lever" in their relationship with the West. particularly since the Sept. Hoffman said the use of rendition has been on the decline. Its security services have numerous sources in places where the U.S. Hoffman said. February 13.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 76/148 Cross-X. officials secretly "rendered" terrorism suspects to countries such as Egypt for interrogation. http://www.S. . by blocking the smuggling of arms and militants into Gaza and supporting Israel's blockade of the strip. In the region. The Egyptian General Intelligence Service "has the reputation of being one of the best-informed intelligence agencies on Islamist fundamentalism and its international dimensions. Radical takeover means the US is fighting blind. 2001. And the Egyptians have built up a trove of information on al-Qaeda and other radical Islamist groups in the Middle East." In addition to passing on intelligence.S.washingtonpost. a terrorism expert at Georgetown University." according to Jane's intelligence information service. Bruce Hoffman. this will never be the same. 2011. The cooperation became public after revelations surfaced that U.-Egyptian counterterrorism work”.

Political Analyst for Politics Daily. 1/31/2011. Algeria and other dictatorial regimes in the region that the United States has taken it easy on in order to secure help for fighting terrorism.and appears to be doing behind the scenes -.” said Juan Zarate of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell refused to criticize how the administration was handling the crisis. who was a top counterterrorism official during George W. The dual nature of diplomacy -.politicsdaily. http://www. leaked cables about Egypt illustrate a complex relationship of subtle shifts between coddling and arm-twisting. . That narrative holds that authoritarian proAmerican governments should be deposed by violent jihad. The best the White House can do -. Or perhaps not.com/2011/01/31/egyptian-crisis-biggest-foreign-test-yet-for-obamaadministratio/) CJC Officials were "a little bit flustered at first" by the protests -. Republican leaders backed up that assessment. 2011. MARK LANDLER and MARK MAZZETTI.com Thursday File Egypt – Counterterrorism Radicalization in Egypt would undermine US counterterrorism efforts.nytimes.especially as practiced in the Middle East -.is communicate "the hopelessness of the situation to President Mubarak. that does huge damage to the Al Qaeda narrative.but Boston University international relations professor Richard Augustus Norton said overall. Just as WikiLeaks has been credited with setting off the revolution in Tunisia. “There’s part of this that’s dangerous to Al Qaeda. A peaceful solution undermines Al Qaeda’s narrative. Mubarak or President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen would deal a short-term blow to its counterterrorism campaign. Bush’s administration.Vice President Joe Biden told the PBS News Hour that Mubarak is not a dictator -.com/2011/02/03/world/middleeast/03diplomacy. an expert on Arab politics at George Washington University. Stone – 1/31 (Andrea Stone. NY Times – 2/2 (HELENE COOPER." said Nathan Brown. the administration has done a good job of reacting. “Sudden Split Recasts U. Foreign Policy”. pluralistic transition. “Egyptian Crisis Biggest Foreign Test Yet for Obama Administration”. The United States is heavily reliant on foreign partners. “If the street protests lead to a peaceful.html?_r=1&hp) CJC the unfolding crisis is about much more than just a rift with an ally. and officials and outside experts said that losing Mr.” he said.S. For the United States. director of the Middle East program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. February 2. http://www. The same realpolitik has been in play in the relation with Yemen." said Marina Ottaway. "We have closed our eyes to Mubarak because he has been useful to us in other ways. Effective diplomacy in Egypt is critical to a peaceful resolution of the crisis that renews our diplomatic credibility which is critical to fighting terrorism. With the popular revolts in Egypt and Yemen — and a government already deposed in Tunisia — American counterterrorism officials are concerned that radical factions in those countries could find a new foothold amid the chaos.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 77/148 Cross-X.has complicated the administration's response to the popular uprising in Egypt.

"We have sent a strong message to our allies in the region saying. Staff Writers. 2011. http://www.com/article/2011/02/15/us-egypt-iran-obama-idUSTRE71E4IG20110215? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Anti-government demonstrations also simmered Tuesday in Yemen and Bahrain. on the spot. "If you're governing these countries. we're concerned about stability throughout the region. Reuters – 2/15 (Matt Spetalnick and Patricia Zengerle. Feb 15. he urged all governments in the region to deal peacefully with protests. you've got to get out ahead of change. “ Obama slams Iran government and praises Egypt army”. as the pro-democracy fervor that toppled Mubarak rippled across the Middle East. a longtime U. you can't be behind the curve.com Thursday File Yemen Spillover Spillover is happening in Yemen. a critical US ally. as opposed to Iran's example'. two key U.S." Obama said." But seizing the chance to put Iran.reuters. allies with longtime autocratic rulers. foe. 'Let's look at Egypt's example.S. "Obviously. as the Egyptian military had done.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 78/148 Cross-X. ." Obama said.

among others. people are drawing inspirations from the Egyptian model. Already a basket case before recent street protests. "We're seeing protests all throughout the region." stating that countries throughout the Middle East are suddenly taking new approaches to respond to their citizens' needs. More importantly. 1/31/2011. 2011." he said. "Some [countries] are trying essentially to bribe their citizens. Syria ***Instability Shell*** . If anything. As Plante noted. “Egyptian Crisis Biggest Foreign Test Yet for Obama Administration”.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 79/148 Cross-X. they have kept an eye out for trouble in nearby countries. at Syria. Yemen.html THE torturous road to peace in the Middle East becomes more excruciating every day and the cumulative effect of events in the region over the past week offer little hope for any reduction in what appear to be increasingly flammable tensions." B.com/2011/01/31/egyptian-crisis-biggest-foreign-test-yet-for-obamaadministratio/) CJC the most serious foreign policy crisis of the Obama administration unfolded at breakneck speed in the streets of Cairo and other Egyptian cities.cbsnews. His death was the latest in a string of attacks against prominent critics of Lebanon's neighbour and former powerbroker Syria. "Yemen could be next. The killing has been widely condemned by the international community and the finger pointed. the White House and diplomats at the State Department have struggled to keep up with developments. As arguably A. Hamid added that the United States should try to adapt its foreign policy accordingly.com. any instability could fan the flames of civil war in a country that has been a pivotal test-run for democracy in the region since September 11. National security officials huddled with Egypt experts in the White House while the president spoke by phone to leaders in the region. Bahrain and Iran. CBS News – 2/14 (Genevieve Kermani. http://www. the most notable being the 2005 killing of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri. Yemen and Jordan. the al-Qaeda sanctuary is ground zero in the U. and by implication its ally. http://www. Staff Writer CBS News.theage. as we've seen in Kuwait.com Thursday File Spillover -> Yemen = Terrorism Preventing spillover from Egypt is critical to keeping terrorist hotspots from collapsing like Yemen. once again. The match that lights the flame may well be last Thursday's assassination of Lebanese MP Antoine Ghanem. Jordan. though Hosni Mubarak is no longer the president of Egypt. Mr Ghanem's death introduces an unwelcome element of instability ahead of tomorrow's crucial presidential elections.politicsdaily.S. Middle East is powder keg. Iran. It's really hard to tell. 2001. Political Analyst for Politics Daily. Stone – 1/31 (Andrea Stone. any conflict will spillover The Age 9/24/2007 “Tempers must remain cool as the Middle East heats up”. Continued Egyptian protests are sparking a wave of uprising across the Middle East diplomacy will be critical to keep stability. the talk now is of war." he said. why can't it happen elsewhere?" Hamid told CBS News senior White House correspondent Bill Plante. especially Yemen. Jordan could be next. Protests have been seen in recent days in Algeria. February 14.com/8301-503544_162-20031888503544. a violent murder that pitched his divided nation further into turmoil.au/news/editorial/tempers-must-remain-cool-as-the-middle-east-heatsup/2007/09/23/1190486129857.html) CJC Hamid of the Brookings Doha Center said on "Washington Unplugged" Monday that the revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia could spark similar outcomes throughout the Middle East. protesters remain on the streets in that country in an effort to remind the military "who's in charge of Egypt's revolution. especially if an anti-Syrian candidate is elected. Those in Saudi Arabia. "We're seeing protests emerge everywhere. and now that it's happened in Egypt." Hamid pointed to the "end of this so-called stability-paradigm. At the same time. fear the revolution that began in Tunisia could target them next. http://www. “Will Egypt's Revolution Spark Domino Effect?”. Shadi and what I think people are saying is if it first happened in Tunisia. fight against terrorism.

protracted regional violence creates conditions and motivation for developing nuclear weapons which can directly threaten our security. and they pay in increased domestic frictions for the waves of migrants and refugees loosed by conflict. There has also been speculation that the raid served as a "dry run" for a possible Israeli or US attack on Iran. US efforts to ensure the success of a Middle East peace conference. with its arson murders by extremists. and Australia must impress upon its allies that. Democracies and free markets are spreading. Meanwhile. remain mired in political haggling over what is to be brought to the negotiating table. planned for November. Another suggestion is that the target was Iranian weapons destined for Lebanon's Hezbollah. the United States and other industrial countries pay for these conflicts by losing their investments and their trade in goods and services. is connected to another. in a part of the world where every action can easily be met with a disproportionate reaction. on a site that it believed was being equipped for nuclear development by North Korea. Beyond this. as it has with the other high-profile assassinations of anti-Syrian leaders in Lebanon. But democracies and free markets cannot flourish in an increasingly interknit world unless there is some modicum of order. Regional Conflicts Draw in the US and go Nuclear Jonathan Dean (Advisor on International Security Issues) 5/4/95 Union of Concerned Scientists We do not want this kind of world. have dangerous consequences for the region as a whole. Mohamed ElBaradei. We cannot afford it.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 80/148 Cross-X.com Thursday File has. unrestrained regional conflicts can become conflicts which can draw in the United States and other major powers. They pay most of the costs for humanitarian relief and rehabilitation. This pointed admonition coincides with a string of reports emanating from Washington that the Bush Administration is running out of patience with diplomacy and is intensifying its plans for air strikes against Iran. and particularly by the US. announced that Iran had already prepared a plan to attack Israel if it bombed his country. In the long run. This war of words was further escalated when a senior commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard chose to outline the capability of his country's ballistic missiles. have done in Germany. The head of the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency. Their expansion is the best general guarantee for peace. there is more mileage in diplomacy than in any military solution. and this should be carried out with haste. which he threatened to use on American targets in the Middle East. a move UN officials described as an "out of control" drift to war. Calls have been made for UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to launch an international probe into the bombing. as its clandestine nuclear arms program. Iran's only Arab ally. every tension. every event. such as the murder of a Lebanese MP. Talk of war further intensified after the deputy commander of Iran's air force. These threats coincide with growing international pressure on Iran to abandon what is regarded by the West. and it is this very mutuality that can make one act. General Mohammad Alavi. somewhat ingenuously. . In the Middle East. more so since the Iraq war. denied any involvement. The French also added fuel to the fire when Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner warned the world to "prepare for the worst and the worst is war". C. including hundreds of thousands of refugees from the Balkans. quickly entered the fray and warned against the use of force against Iran. Look at what excessive rates of migration. The Middle East is now overheated and potentially explosive. The events in Lebanon and the debate over Iran run parallel with Israel's declaration of the Gaza Strip as "hostile territory" and Israeli opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu's confirmation that two weeks ago Israel carried out an air attack deep inside Syria. Beyond the loss of life and productive capability in armed conflict.

The stability of the 80-million-strong nation and of the region is in play as protesters clash with progovernment supporters in Tahrir Square. The Australian – 2/4 (“High stakes in the square”. . it remains far from certain whether either Hosni Mubarak or Barack Obama will be able to deliver a sustainable outcome. That need for stability has driven the West's approach to Mr Mubarak's 30 years in power. A combination of economic woes and mass unemployment. but however ad hoc these protests. The cry is for democracy: the risk is to the stability that has defined Egypt for decades. Nobel Peace Prize winner Mohamed ElBaradei. But the past few days have shown that acceptance by Egyptians of the trade-off between rights and stability can no longer be assumed. The stakes are high. In the middle are the protesters in the square who. 2011. The Egyptian President is insisting that while he will step down in September. The lack of an organised political opposition in Egypt has become apparent in recent days.com. The extraordinary battle being played out in the centre of Cairo will decide the future not just of Egypt. but of the Middle East. the US President is signalling he must leave before that. have spilled into the street. along with dissatisfaction with a long-term autocratic leader. and meanwhile he intends to oversee the transition to a new leader.com Thursday File Ext – Instability Egypt instability threatens Middle East instability.au/news/opinion/high-stakes-in-the-square/story-e6frg71x1225999765488) CJC EGYPT'S transition will determine stability in the region.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 81/148 Cross-X. and however weak the civil society. with a caretaker government working towards change. February 04. http://www. are refusing to leave until Mr Mubarak surrenders office. He has been the strongman of the Middle East. It is an uprising that appears to have taken by surprise everyone from the White House to the man being touted as the most likely transitional leader. the mood for change cannot be ignored. yet a week after the uprising began. whose ability to balance domestic demands and regional imperatives has made his nation a secular bulwark against fundamentalist Islam and the West's strongest Arab ally.theaustralian. against the odds and despite the violence.

"We also call on all parties to. “Wave of Unrest Rolls Into Gulf”. in marked contrast to their relative silence on Iran during the last wave of protests in Iran in 2009. which hosts the headquarters for the U. strategic interests. and the first to pit a Shiite Muslim majority against Sunni rulers—heightening the dilemma for the U. as it struggles to pursue its interests in the region. antiterrorism efforts. In Iran.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 82/148 Cross-X. sharpened the difficulty for the Obama administration.refrain from violence. Obama praised the courage of protesters and said the Iranian regime was "pretending" to celebrate Egypt's revolt while "gunning down and beating people who were trying to express themselves peacefully" at home.S. The White House is trying to balance its desire to encourage what President Barack Obama called Tuesday "certain universal values" with U.S.S." he added. and Julian Barnes. Adam Entous. http://online. Mr. is "very concerned" about the violence and is urging the regime to investigate protester deaths as quickly as possible. Neither leader spoke Tuesday about the movements in Bahrain and Yemen.com Thursday File ME Diplomacy – Bahrain & Yemen Uprisings in Bahrain and Yemen have US diplomats on their toes to balance strategic interests.S. though the president was questioned about both during a news conference. Later.wsj. Jordan and elsewhere. The president and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton both offered encouragement to MANAMA. Navy's Fifth Fleet patrolling the Gulf. State Department spokesman Philip Crowley put out a statement saying the U. as fast-moving uprisings have unseated regimes in Tunisia and Egypt and triggered opposition rallies in Algeria. The developments came as security forces in Yemen.S. Reporters for the Wall Street Journal. 2011. FEBRUARY 16. The funeral of a demonstrator here Tuesday swelled into growing clashes with security forces amid the gleaming new skyscrapers of this financial capital..html? mod=ITP_pageone_0#) CJC Bahrain—The Middle East's wave of popular revolts helped spur the largest street rebellion in years in a Persian Gulf monarchy. The parallel protests against key allies and enemies of the U. fought back protesters for a fifth day.. . the government threatened leaders of Monday's protests there with execution and made a fresh wave of arrests.com/article/SB10001424052748704409004576145711833269124.S. Wall Street Journal – 2/16 (Joe Parkinson. an important ally in U. Iranian protesters and aimed tough words at Tehran on Tuesday.

and Julian Barnes. officials believe if the current government fell in Yemen. Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh. FEBRUARY 16. Wall Street Journal – 2/16 (Joe Parkinson. The money would assist counter-terrorism efforts against AQAP which is the biggest threat of terrorist attacks.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 83/148 Cross-X. told Congress last week he saw AQAP as the biggest current threat to the U.S. official said the funds would be invested in a special Yemeni counter- terrorism unit that is operated under Yemen's interior ministry and now totals around 300 people.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0#) CJC Some U. head of the National Counterterrorism Center. Reuters – 2/14 (Phil Stewart.com/article/2011/02/14/us-usa-yemenidUSTRE71D7AQ20110214? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC The United States aims to spend $75 million to double the size of a special Yemeni counterterrorism unit. He is also under pressure to quash the resurgent al Qaeda wing in the impoverished Arabian Peninsula state. to spend $75 million on new Yemen military training”. and development challenges" pose the greatest threat to that poor Arab nation since its 1994 civil war. airliner and a more recent attempt last year to blow up two U. “Wave of Unrest Rolls Into Gulf”. inspired by uprisings that toppled Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak and Tunisia's President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali. The funds are unrelated to another $120 million earmarked for Yemen in President Barack Obama's 2012 budget request unveiled on Monday.S. Adam Entous.com/article/SB10001424052748704409004576145711833269124. or AQAP. http://online.reuters. Wall Street Journal – 2/16 (Joe Parkinson. FEBRUARY 16. ***Bahrain Shell*** . http://www. speaking on condition of anonymity. and officials say a collapse of the weak government could give the group free rein. which has yet to be approved by Congress.S.S. “Wave of Unrest Rolls Into Gulf”. in power for 30 years. U. “U. has faced growing protests in recent weeks from thousands of Yemenis. Yemen is under threat of collapsing. Staff Reporter. Those operations include training commandos and conducting counter-terrorism strikes. Adam Entous.S. 2011. the official told Reuters. This is separate from his budget. Diplomats are working for a solution to ensure that Bahrain allows political reforms and to quell the uprising.S. Yemen is the home to al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. 2011. a U. would gut US counter-terrorism efforts globally and allow the fast spread of al Qaeda.S. Reporters for the Wall Street Journal.S. U.-bound cargo planes with toner cartridges packed with explosives. is part of a broader effort to increase pressure on al Qaeda's Yemen-based affiliate. Feb 14. The funding. at the same time as he struggles to control southern secessionists and to cement a fragile truce with rebels in the north. Michael Leiter. and critical economic assistance to stabilize the country. homeland. Stable Yemen government. Reporters for the Wall Street Journal. al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. A. The request includes $35 million in additional military assistance for Yemen and $69 million in economic assistance. 2011. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper told Congress last week that Yemen's "myriad political. security. official said on Monday. operations in the country could be hamstrung. and Julian Barnes.com Thursday File Yemen Counter Terrorism Obama is pushing to double support for counter-terrorism efforts in Yemen to fight al Qaeda.wsj. The group has claimed responsibility for a failed Christmas Day attack in 2009 aboard a U. The U.S.

Shiite leaders have pushed.S. Dr. If Bahrain's Sunni-led government were to be forced from power—something protesters haven't yet made a focus of their demands— some fear a new government might seek closer ties to Iran and force the U. Reporters for the Wall Street Journal.S. Rebecca Grant is a senior fellow of the Lexington Institute. for more political rights over the years.wsj. naval forces in the Gulf. and other issues within the institute’s national security program. Bahrain collapse would result in US losing basing for the Navy’s 5th Fleet.S. http://online. with 18 of 40 seats. 4.S. http://www. No. when the administration initially tried to encourage peaceful protests while urging the government of Hosni Mubarak—a longstanding U.nwc.S. He is involved in a wide range of issues as part of the institute’s national security program.wsj. critical to countering Iran and protect the Persian Gulf. 62. Another concern is that an uprising in Bahrain could spill into next-door Saudi Arabia or Kuwait. Vol. called Al-Wafaq. Iran’s efforts to develop asymmetric capabilities designed to hold U. on Tuesday suspended their participation in the body.S. NAVAL OPTIONS FOR INFLUENCING IRAN”. and Julian Barnes. Navy to relocate . the kingdom has liberalized more than most of its Gulf neighbors." Christopher Boucek. allies. sometimes violently. where even minor unrest might roil world-wide oil markets. “Wave of Unrest Rolls Into Gulf”. The spillover to Gulf States would result in massive oil price spikes. The split U. forces in Iraq. a nonprofit public-policy research organization headquartered in Arlington. Gouré and Grant – 9 (Dr. 2011. a Middle East analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. joint operations. imperatives also were on display in the Egyptian revolt.com/article/SB10001424052748704409004576145711833269124. interests in a region where a significant chunk of the world's oil is produced and transported each day. 5th Fleet is critical to deterring Iranian aggression in the Middle East. Although it lacks oil.com 84/148 Thursday File http://online. The presence of U. “U. In response. ally—to survive by meeting some demands. in solidarity with the protesters.mil/getattachment/c866a012-4a28-4627-86f8-38d0b627e710/U-S--NavalOptions-for-Influencing-Iran---Daniel-G) CJC A central focus of U. Virginia. Bahrain's housing of the U. C. Naval War College Review. Gouré is a vice president with the Lexington Institute. While the ruling family still holds nearabsolute power. But parliamentarians from the Shiite bloc. a viable Shiite opposition has gained a growing voice in the country's parliament. Iran’s actions of principal concern to the United States include its nuclear program. where our national security is at stake.S. not remove them. Bahrain's Sunni Muslim rulers have long faced a restive Shiite population that alleges economic and political discrimination.com/article/SB10001424052748704409004576145711833269124. though they have stopped short of trying to remove the ruling family from power. is a visible demonstration of the interest of the United States in the region and of commitment to secure its national interests and defend allies. American planners must consider the possibility that Iran may threaten to resort to military force should the pressures on Tehran to change its behaviors become intolerable. and since 1991 in Kuwait. The move robs Bahrain's government of a legitimate political party with which to negotiate a settlement. Autumn 2009.navy. Her research focuses on airpower.S. forces and allies in the region at risk or to contest movement in the Gulf must also be considered as potentially destabilizing. cyberspace. FEBRUARY 16. Navy's Fifth Fleet make it a critical port for the Navy vessels deployed to counter Iran and protect the Persian Gulf.S.military deployments in the Persian Gulf is to deter Iran from taking actions deemed inimical to American interests. In addition.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0#) CJC "The goal is to press to reform these governments. Likewise. and efforts to undermine U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. Deterrence must include a clear message to Iran that it cannot alter the strategic situation in the region .S. support for extremist groups in the region. assistance to anti-U. B. Wall Street Journal – 2/16 (Joe Parkinson.S. Adam Entous.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0#) CJC the Obama administration fears unrest in Bahrain could undercut U.

2006 IT WAS LATE JUNE in Sarajevo when Gavrilo Princip shot Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife. "Whoever believes that Israel will ever sign the UN Convention prohibiting the proliferation of nuclear weapons. "We're in the early stages of what I would describe as the Third World War. Center for Research on Globalization. 2006 [David. Bosco. Iranian aggression causes World War 3.ca/articles/STE203A. Global nuclear war. Europe was at war. The Israeli government decides to strike the convoy and Iranian nuclear facilities simultaneously. The understanding that small but violent acts can spark global conflagration is etched into the world's consciousness. David Bosco is a senior editor at Foreign Policy magazine. 7/23/2006."(35) General Amnon Shahak-Lipkin.25 The United States. 2002 [John Steinbach.com 85/148 Thursday File through the use of force. To accomplish this.html)] The Israeli nuclear arsenal has profound implications for the future of peace in the Middle East." former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said last week. 2002 (http://www. needs to conduct its own information campaign. Taliban militants are burning schools and attacking villages in southern Afghanistan as the United States and NATO struggle to defend that country's fragile government. former Israeli Chief of Staff is quoted "It is never possible to talk to Iraq about no matter what.globalresearch. the young Serb nationalist jumped into the shallow river that runs through the city and was quickly seized. Iranian sources claim that the Islamic Republic’s navy can close the Gulf. and defenses. the awareness of peace's fragility is particularly acute. March 3. together with its allies.glo. There may be as much hyperbole as prophecy in the forecasts for world war.. Director of the . North Korea and Iran are developing nuclear capabilities. But the events he set in motion could not be so easily restrained. In recent years."Israel's insistence on the independent use of its nuclear weapons can be seen as the foundation on which Israeli grand strategy rests."(34) According to Seymour Hersh. intelligence officials spot a shipment of longer-range Iranian missiles heading for Lebanon. Nuclear-armed India is still cleaning up the wreckage from a large terrorist attack in which it suspects militants from rival Pakistan. however much it may try. D. But it's not hard to conjure ways that today's hot spots could ignite. Consider the following scenarios: • Targeting Iran: As Israeli troops seek out and destroy Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon. Certainly about writing in Haaretz said. It may be possible to threaten preemption or retaliation with conventional forces even against a nuclear-armed adversary. and has absolutely no intention of negotiating in good faith to curtail its nuclear program or discuss seriously a nuclear-free MiddleEast.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. and cooperative activities with allies—that the United States can rapidly defeat Iran’s asymmetric warfare strategy. It is clear from Israel Shahak that Israel has no interest in peace except that which is dictated on its own terms. Some see the start of a global conflict.S. Iran has engaged in a series of information operations intended to create the impression that it is capable of exerting its military power in the Persian Gulf.. as the world watches the violence in the Middle East. bent on striking Israel's American allies. By David Bosco. there are plenty of scenarios for global conflagration. Certain religious websites are abuzz with talk of Armageddon. “Could This Be the Start of World War III?” http://usc. This hot summer.php? p=403&sid=95896c43b66ffa28f9932774a408bb4b] ARMAGEDDON Could This Be the Start of World War III? As the Middle East erupts. Two months later. The recipient of the deterrent/dissuasion message must consider either his fate too painful or his gain too small to justify his current behavior. triggering a major regional war. E. for the entire planet.org/forums/0016/viewtopic. Governments in Syria. Iran is relying on a strategy of asymmetric warfare —in essence. and long-range missile technology is spreading like a virus. The world is awash in weapons. Deterrence theory suggests a number of potential options: preemption/first strike. In other words. fleet deployments. The reverberations from Princip's shots in the summer of 1914 ultimately took the lives of more than 10 million people. Steinback. either alone or in combination. Jordan. although the persuasiveness of a nonnuclear response to a nuclear threat is uncertain. It is never possible to talk to Iran about no matter what. Iraq is suffering through one of its bloodiest months since the U. he must be confronted by the likelihood that the opponent will impose unacceptable costs or negate the effects of his actions. This campaign should be accompanied by clear demonstrations— through exercises. Egypt and Saudi Arabia face violent street protests demanding retribution against Israel — and they eventually yield. After emptying his revolver. The bloodshed in Lebanon appears to be part of a broader upsurge in unrest. The heart of deterrence and dissuasion is the promise of unacceptable consequences."(37) and Munya Mardoch. After Iran has recovered from the shock.-led invasion in 2003. "the size and sophistication of Israel's nuclear arsenal allows men such as Ariel Sharon to dream of redrawing the map of the Middle East aided by the implicit threat of nuclear force. shattered four empires and dragged more than two dozen countries into war. retaliation. is day dreaming. guerrilla warfare at sea. and indeed. Senior Editor at Foreign Policy Magazine. Revolutionary Guards surging across the border into Iraq. July 23.

while israeli jewish society undergoes a steady polarization. or some secular right-wing Israeli fanatics. if the familar pattern(Israel refining its weapons of mass destruction with U. or some some of the delerious Israeli Army generals. "Should war break out in the Middle East again. "The prospect of Gush Emunim. to the massacre of Palestinian civilians at Sabra and Shatila in 1982 and beyond) the possible Israeli use of nuclear weapons should not be discounted. seizing control of Israeli nuclear weapons.for whatever reason.cannot be precluded. Israel no longer needs U. Seymour Hersh warns.. "The moral and political meaning of nuclear weapons is that states which renounce their use are acquiescing to the status of Vassal states. "In Israeli terminology. In the words of Mark Gaffney. spy secrets. the existence of an arsenal of mass destruction in such an unstable region in turn has serious implications for future arms control and disarmament negotiations. nuclear targeting strategy.or should any Arab nation fire missiles against Israel. According to Shahak.the deepening Middle East conflict could trigger a world conflagration. at the very least. requiring their own weapons of mass destruction.. ". an unindicted war criminal with a bloody record stretching from the massacre of Palestinian civilians at Quibya in 1953.S."(38) As Israeli society becomes more and more polarized. if not for all out nuclear war. Israel's current President said "The nuclear issue is gaining momentum(and the) next war will not be conventional. During a future Middle Eastern war (a distinct possibility given the ascension of Ariel Sharon. said in 1994. the influence of the radical right becomes stronger. and dramatically lowers the threshold for their actual use. and perceive its existence as the paramount threat to peace in the region."(42) Russia and before it the Soviet Union has long been a major(if not the major) target of Israeli nukes. It is widely reported that the principal purpose of Jonathan Pollard's spying for Israel was to furnish satellite images of Soviet targets and other super sensitive data relating to U. a perhaps unique exception being the Iraqi SCUD attacks during the Gulf War. (43) (Since launching its own satellite in 1988.. as the Iraqis did. All those states which feel satisfied with possessing conventional weapons alone are fated to become vassal states..com Thursday File Israeli Institute for the Development of Weaponry.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 86/148 Cross-X."(39) The Arab states."41) and Ezar Weissman.S..) Israeli nukes aimed at the Russian heartland seriously complicate disarmament and arms control negotiations and..S.) Meanwhile. a nuclear escalation.."(40) (Which requires a "nonconventional" response.. According to Shahak. . would now be a strong probability. and even the threat of nuclear war. the unilateral possession of nuclear weapons by Israel is enormously destabilizing. the Israeli security system increasingly relies on the recruitment of cohorts from the ranks of the extreme right." . complicity) is not reversed soon.. once unthinkable except as a last resort. the launching of missiles on to Israeli territory is regarded as 'nonconventional' regardless of whether they are equipped with explosives or poison gas. bitterly resent its coercive intent. long aware of Israel's nuclear program.

Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 87/148

Bahrain is critical to US defense strategy in the Middle East. The 5th Fleet ensure oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, and deters Iran. CBS News – 2/16 (Staff; “Navy's 5th Fleet in Bahrain Eyes Unrest Warily”; February 16, 2011; http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/02/16/501364/main20032183.shtml) CJC Unrest surging through the Arab world has so far taken no toll on the American military. But that could change if revolt washes over the tiny Persian Gulf kingdom of Bahrain longtime home to the U.S. Navy's mighty 5th Fleet and arguably the Middle East anchor of U.S. defense strategy. The discontent that has spilled into the streets of Bahrain's capital, Manama, this week features no anti-American sentiment, but the U.S. has a lot at stake in preserving its dominant naval presence in the Gulf. In announcing that it is "very concerned" about violence linked to the
WASHINGTON protests, the State Department on Tuesday underscored Bahrain's strategic importance as a U.S. partner. "The United States welcomes the government of Bahrain's statements that it will investigate these deaths, and that it will take legal action against any unjustified use of force by Bahraini security forces," said department spokesman P.J. Crowley. "We urge that it follow through on these statements as quickly as possible." The 5th Fleet operates at least one aircraft carrier in the Gulf

Bahrain – 5th Fleet

Cross-X.com Thursday File

at all times, along with an "amphibious ready group" of ships with Marines aboard. Their presence is central to a longstanding U.S. commitment to ensuring the free flow of oil through the Gulf, while keeping an eye on a hostile Iran and seeking to deter piracy in the region. Anthony Cordesman, a Mideast defense specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Bahrain has security services capable of handling protesters and potentially backed by neighboring Saudi Arabia. Thousands of banner-waving protesters took over a main square in Manama
Tuesday in a bold attempt to copy Egypt's uprising. The demonstrations capped two days of clashes that left at least two people dead, and the king made a rare address on national television to offer condolences for the bloodshed. "It is a serious problem, but whether it's going to flare up any more seriously this time than all the other times is hard to say," Cordesman said. "The question is whether they can shake the security structure of the state." The implications for U.S. foreign policy and national security from the pro-democracy movements that have arisen in the Arab world - highlighted by Egypt's stunning revolution - is likely to be a topic Wednesday when Defense Secretary Robert Gates testifies before the House Armed Services Committee. Bahrain became a more prominent partner for the Pentagon after the 1991 Gulf War with Iraq; since then

it has granted U.S. forces increased access, plus permission to store wartime supplies for future crises.

Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 88/148

Cross-X.com Thursday File

Bahrain Spillover -> Gulf Oil States
Bahrain uprising spillover would be sectarian spilling over into critical Gulf Oil states. Wall Street Journal – 2/16 (Joe Parkinson, Adam Entous, and Julian Barnes, Reporters for the Wall Street Journal; “Wave of Unrest Rolls Into Gulf”; FEBRUARY 16, 2011; http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704409004576145711833269124.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0#) CJC Bahrain is a tiny, island kingdom in the oil-rich Gulf best known for its banking prowess, along with bars that cater to
nationals from alcohol-free Saudi Arabia next door. It pumps little crude itself, but the protests here have brought home to neighboring oil-rich capitals—Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha and Riyadh—a taste of the turmoil that had largely been limited to much poorer corners of the Arab world. It's also the first country experiencing the recent unrest in which the

often-explosive sectarian divide between Sunni and Shiite Muslims has emerged in a meaningful way. Shiites make up small minorities in other recent hot spots, including Egypt, Jordan and Yemen, but religious tensions haven't been a driving factor in unrest in those places. A sustained Shiite uprising in Bahrain would alarm Sunni rulers in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, all Gulf countries with sizable Shiite minorities. They worry about the unrest spilling across their borders, and the possibility Iran would have more opportunities to meddle in the region. Gulf rulers are often quick to blame Iran for instigating trouble among Shiite populations, though real Iranian influence in those communities has been limited.

Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 89/148

Cross-X.com Thursday File

Egypt -> Bahrain
Egypt has spilled over into Bahrain, threatening to out the Navy’s 5th Fleet and spillover throughout the Gulf region. NYT – 2/16 (Nicholas D. Kristof, Columnist; “Tunisia. Egypt. Bahrain?”; February 16, 2011; http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/17/opinion/17kristof.html) CJC
The gleaming banking center of Bahrain, one of those family-run autocratic Arab states that count as American allies, has become the latest reminder that authoritarian regimes are slow learners. Bahrain

is another Middle East domino wobbled by an angry youth — and it has struck back with volleys of tear gas, rubber bullets and even buckshot at completely peaceful protesters. In the early-morning hours on Thursday here in the Bahrain capital, it used deadly force to clear the throngs of pro-democracy protesters who had turned Pearl Square in the
center of the city into a local version of Tahrir Square in Cairo. This was the last spasm of brutality from a regime that has handled protests with an exceptionally heavy hand — and like the previous crackdowns,

this will further undermine the legitimacy of the government. “Egypt has infected Bahrain,” a young businessman, Husain, explained

to me as he trudged with a protest march snaking through Manama. Husain (I’m omitting some last names to protect those involved) said that Tunisia and Egypt awakened a sense of possibility inside him — and that his resolve only grew when Bahrain’s riot police first attacked completely peaceful protesters. When protesters held a funeral march for the first man killed by police, the authorities here then opened fire on the mourners, killing another person. “I was scared to participate,” Husain admitted. But he was so enraged that he decided that he couldn’t stay home any longer. So he became one of the countless thousands of prodemocracy protesters demanding far-reaching change. At first the protesters just wanted the release of political prisoners, an end to torture and less concentration of power in the al-Khalifa family that controls the country. But, now,

after the violence against peaceful protesters, the crowds increasingly are calling for the overthrow of the Khalifa family. Many would accept a British-style constitutional monarchy in which King Hamad, one of the Khalifas,
would reign without power. But an increasing number are calling for the ouster of the king himself. King Hamad gave a speech regretting the deaths of demonstrators, and he temporarily called off the police. By dispatching the riot police early Thursday morning, King Hamad underscored his vulnerability and his moral bankruptcy.

All of this puts the United States in a bind. Bahrain is a critical United States ally because it is home to the American Navy’s Fifth Fleet, and Washington has close relations with the Khalifa family. What’s more, in some ways Bahrain was a model for the
region. It gives women and minorities a far greater role than Saudi Arabia next door, it has achieved near universal literacy for women as well as men, and it has introduced some genuine democratic reforms. Of the 40 members of the (not powerful) Lower House of Parliament, 18 belong to an opposition party. Somewhat cruelly, on Wednesday I asked the foreign minister, Sheik Khalid Ahmed al-Khalifa, if he doesn’t owe his position to his family. He acknowledged the point but noted that Bahrain is changing and added that some day the country will have a foreign minister who is not a Khalifa. “It’s an evolving process,” he insisted, and he emphasized that Bahrain should be seen through the prism of its regional peer group. “Bahrain is in the Arabian gulf,” he noted. “It’s not in Lake Erie.” The problem is that Bahrain has educated its people and created a middle class that isn’t content to settle for crumbs beneath a paternalistic Arab potentate — and this

country is inherently unstable as a predominately Shiite country ruled by a Sunni royal family. That’s one reason Bahrain’s upheavals are sending a tremor through other gulf autocracies that oppress Shiites, not least Saudi Arabia. A. US-Israel relations are on the brink of collapsing. Failure by the US to appear engaged on the Egyptian crisis to prevent a takeover of the government by radicals, would be perceived by Israel as US abandonment. US must ensure continued diplomacy on the crisis to assure Israel and prevent an extremist takeover. Fabian – 2/15 (Jordan Fabian, Staff Writer at The Hill; “Israelis fretting over U.S. policy”; 02/15/11; http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/144065-israelis-fret-over-us-policy-afterprotests) CJC Israelis are worried about two more years of President Obama, and the crisis in Egypt is adding to their concerns. Israelis already have a cool relationship with Obama, who in
TEL AVIV, Israel — his first year as president called for an Israeli settlement freeze as a precondition to peace talks with the Palestinians. Obama’s 2009 speech in Cairo, which called for a “new beginning” between the West and the Muslim world, was also viewed with skepticism in Israel.

Now there are questions surrounding the leadership of Egypt, Israel’s traditional ally in the Arab world, as well as U.S. policy toward the Middle East. While Israelis uniformly recognize that the U.S.-Israel relationship is strong on the whole, many believe that the unrest in the Arab world could lead Obama to revert to familiar themes they view as hostile to their country’s interests. Former Israeli ambassador to the United States Zalman ***Israel Relations Shell***

and do so peacefully. nor is it produced by the machinations of the “Israel Lobby. would retaliate with thousands of nuclear bombs against the United States.com/2009/02/16/six-escalation-scenarios-to-nuclearworld-war-iii/) Israel is especially dangerous because its leaders and supporters have made clear for years that if Israel was ever devastated by any kind of war or attack it would retaliate in indiscriminate “Samson Option” attacks against not just on Muslim cities. based on the United States-Israel alliance.http://pakalert. managed by the United States from offshore and without the commitment of any force. to anticipate my conclusion. Harvard (Dr. Martin. when candidates often make pledges or take positions they are later pressured to act upon.” Fall 2006.” he said. have already begun to reopen a split between Obama and his potential Republican rivals on the Middle East. the problems the United States faces in the Persian Gulf stem from the fact that it does not have an Israel equivalent there. From a realist point of view. not in the interests of Israel. and so it must massively deploy its own force at tremendous cost. (See “Israeli Nuclear Threats and Blackmail ” .com 90/148 Thursday File Shoval said in an interview that a continued Obama effort to reach out to the Muslim world will be read in Israel as an effort to push Israeli interests to the side. is this: United States support for Israel is not primarily the result of Holocaust guilt or shared democratic values. . he placed his public focus on the Egyptian people’s struggle for democracy. Since no one in the Gulf is sure that the United States has the staying power to maintain such a presence over time.S. but it has voiced severe worry about the possibility of the country slipping into the hands of Islamic extremists who could undo its 1979 peace treaty with Israel. The pressures of the campaign trail.S. and policymakers in both countries have said that the outcome could strain the American-Israeli relationship. the illusion of its unconditionality – underpins the pax Americana in the eastern Mediterranean. The fact that there has not been a general Arab-Israeli war since 1973 is proof that this pax Americana. has been a success. Some believe these campaign arguments could eventually become policy differences that would be detrimental to Israel. 16 February. the Gulf keeps producing defiers of America. constructively and in the spirit of unity that has defined these last few weeks.wordpress. Extinction Moore 9—BA in pol sci from Wayne State (Carol. None of the Republicans publicly criticized Obama. It is.” American support for Israel -indeed. Russia could feel compelled to attack the United States for acts like a U. Shoval said. It has compelled Israel’s key Arab neighbors to reach peace with Israel and to enter the American orbit.washingtoninstitute.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. the ideal realist alliance. when Israel makes such concessions. B.” Barbour said in an address to the Herzliya Conference. “The American Interest. Three potential 2012 GOP candidates visited the Jewish state during the first five weeks of 2011.) Russia.org/templateC06. supporting Israel has been a low-cost way of keeping order in part of the Middle East. but their comments offered a preview of the coming GOP attacks. Several potential Republican presidential candidates have called his response misguided. “Obama’s approach to the Middle East. Given suspected U. US-Israel relations key to Middle East stability Kramer 06 – fellow at The Washington Institute and senior fellow at the Olin Institute. Israel has expressed support for Egyptian democracy. In contrast. argued that a “point of view” has emerged in Washington that “Israel is a problem.” could be viewed as even more harmful to Israel.” “People who hold this view feel themselves correct to demand from Israel an endless series of dangerous strategic concessions. even though they should have learned by now. http://www. for example. Six Escalation Scenarios to Nuclear World War III. in return it is rewarded with nothing but more rocket attacks. Haley Barbour.php?CID=980) My answer. from Khomeini to Saddam to Bin Laden to Ahmadinejad. simply. Mississippi Gov. C. but against European and even Russian targets. but to keep the world’s great reserves of oil out of the grip of the West’s sworn enemies. of course. nuclear attack on Iran. [beginning with] his Cairo speech. nuclear primacy plans. “I am confident that the people of Egypt can find the answers. The United States has to counter them. The unrest in Egypt has prompted divergent responses from President Obama and the Israeli government. While Obama called for a “credible transition to democracy” in Egypt after President Hosni Mubarak formally stepped down on Friday.

U. Any use of nuclear weapons probably will lead to a rapid escalation. everyone else feels free to do so.S. then President of Russia. . Only a worldwide disarmament movement can stop it.S. it will be like giving permission for anyone to use them. Once there is any use of nuclear weapons.” The U. “out of control spiral.N. cannot stop it. but once one does. (Details ) And U. leaders also could be spooked by a nuclear incident. as the 2002 movie “Sum of All Fears” illustrates. came within three minutes of initiating a full nuclear strike on the United States because of one Norwegian scientific rocket Russians could not identify. imperialism and pre-emptive strikes cannot stop it. On January 25.” to nuclear war among most or all nuclear nations–”world nuclear war. Compare it to a room full of people embarrassed to cough.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.com 91/148 Thursday File which is just a few hundred miles from its border. 1995 Boris Yeltsin.

com Thursday File Israel Brink Israel is on edge already.html) CJC Mubarak's departure marks the beginning of a new chapter in the Middle Eastern country. 2011. FEBRUARY 11. threatening a decades long balance of power in the Mideast. United Nations chief Ban Ki-moon said the army must allow free and fair elections to get back to civilian rule.wsj. were united in calling for a swift transition to democracy." he said. Saudi Arabia and Israel. http://online.com/article/BT-CO-20110211-713327. while acknowledging there will be tough days ahead. one that he thinks will be difficult but more democratic. Arab League chief Amr Mussa hailed the Egyptian people and army for their "historic achievement" and called for national consensus. were put on the defensive as events rattled regional allies and foes alike. “AT A GLANCE: Egypt's Mubarak Steps Down. Military Takes Over”. . "Egyptians have made it clear that nothing President Barack Obama said the less than genuine democracy will carry the day. in particular. Wall Street Journal – 2/11 (Staff.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 92/148 Cross-X. European leaders. too.

added he would assess they are not in favor of a peace treaty. Benson – 2/16 (Pam Benson.com Thursday File A2: Brotherhood Not A Threat Your evidence is citing Director of National Intelligence Clapper.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss %2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS%3A+Politics%29) CJC The nation's top intelligence officer sought to clarify Wednesday a comment that was roundly criticized when he said that the Muslim Brotherhood was a "secular" group. CNN Reporter.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 93/148 Cross-X. February 16. the chair of the committee. 2011. Sen. http://www. Clapper responded each time it was hard to say or he didn't know -.comment/index. “Intel chief says his Muslim Brotherhood remark misunderstood”. speaking to the Senate Intelligence Committee. ties to Iran and the smuggling of weapons into Gaza.S. The group itself is not secular. Feinstein wanted to know the stated positions of the group with regards to the Middle East peace process. intelligence committee knew enough about the Brotherhood's positions.com/2011/POLITICS/02/16/clapper. expressed concern about whether the U.but he weapons into Gaza. Diane Feinstein. Clapper said in an opening statement Washington (CNN) -to Congress. that it remains to be seen on Iran and he surmised they supported bringing ***Muslim Brotherhood*** . said his comment last week was misunderstood and he only meant that the group is trying to work within secular political systems. D-California. In a series of questions to Clapper. who has clarified his statements about the Muslim Brotherhood. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper.cnn. indicating that they are NOT a secular organization.

said Abdel Fattah. The Brotherhood would seek "the preservation of AIRO — Ali Abdel his office in South Cairo. whose forehead bore the calluses of those who prostrate themselves five times a day in prayer. the "thump thump" of a cleaver could be heard just outside the unadorned office. answering phone calls. http://www.usatoday." . chattering in Arabic at aides in dark suits and discussing honor" by stoning adulterers.com Thursday File Muslim Brotherhood Pushing For Control Muslim Brotherhood is pushing to take control of the government through elections. punishing gays. "We basically want a government that will take on the demands of the people that were clear in the revolution of Tahrir Square. the Brotherhood — an Islamist group that has held as many as 20% of the seats in Egypt's parliament in recent years — is vowing to increase its influence on daily life in Egypt. sat at a laminate table in plans for Egypt under democratic rule.htm) CJC Fattah. spokesman for the long-banned Muslim Brotherhood. Dorell – 2/14 (Oren Dorell. "Sharia law does not differ from the demands of the people. A man was hacking up a calf on a wood stump." Abdel Fattah said.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 94/148 Cross-X. As he spoke late Saturday. 2/14/2011. A bright puddle of blood ran into the street as the animal was slaughtered for a feast celebrating the Brotherhood's hopes for the future. Reporter at USA TODAY. “Ideology shadows fight to rule the new Egypt”.com/news/world/2011-02-14-1Aegypt14_CV_N. requiring Muslim women to cover their heads and shoulders in public and killing Muslims who leave their faith. In the scramble for power among groups of various political identity after last week's ouster of President Hosni Mubarak. arranging the meat on a plastic sheet on the patio floor.

" he said. under pressure from the Bush administration on human rights issues. is a sinful Muslim. Hezbollah did this despite having just 57 of the 128 seats in Lebanon's parliament. The movement gained 20% of seats in the parliament in 2005 when Mubarak. Dorell – 2/14 (Oren Dorell. last month toppled the government of the majority pro-Western parties in Lebanon and installed its own candidate as prime minister.htm) CJC How strong is the Brotherhood? Estimates vary on the political support the Brotherhood has in Egypt. Hezbollah.com Thursday File A2: Muslim Brotherhood Not Win Enough Seats Muslim Brotherhood would not have to win the majority. a party could do a lot with such a percentage of the parliament's seats. Selling scented oils to men outside a mosque in Giza. Mohamed Zarea. which would be enough to control the government. Mohamed Hossam Eldin Abdel Wahid. who keeps a large red tinted beard and a floor-length ochre robe. a U. Some conservative Muslims consider themselves more moderate and would not go along with an extremist program. They would get 30% if elections were held now. Reporter at USA TODAY.-designated terrorist group and enemy of Israel. . However. 2/14/2011. He says he memorized the Quran during a 20-year detention under Mubarak's emergency laws. http://www. Makram-Ebeid estimates the Brotherhood would gain "only" 30% of parliament seats in elections involving 22 opposition parties she counts as vying for power. who's an extremist. Wael Nawara of Al Ghad says the Brotherhood would gain 15% of the seats in an election today. “Ideology shadows fight to rule the new Egypt”. considers himself a conservative Muslim. allowed direct elections for the first time.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 95/148 Cross-X." "A Muslim who does not practice regulations of Islam. a lawyer and human rights worker who deals with members of the Brotherhood. 56.com/news/world/2011-02-14-1Aegypt14_CV_N.S. he said "attacks based on religion are wrong. says they would get 50%.usatoday.

and warned Carter that Brzezinski was recommending a course that would end in “1. Administration hardliners wanted the shah to “get tough. the U.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-01-31/egyptian-protests-mirror-1979revolution-in-iran/?cid=bs:archive7) CJC So far the Obama administration seems to be getting it right on Egypt. Washington did nothing.S. Both dynasts. Brzezinski (joined by Defense Secretary Harold Brown and Energy Secretary James Schlesinger) thought the shah might relinquish some domestic authority. U.” America’s wisest course now would be to “work out the transfer of power to responsible hands before Khomeini comes back and messes everything up. “I can’t tell another head of state what to do. but also moderates. Just before the regime began to totter in 1978.” Ball urged Carter to tell the shah to leave Iran. Carter sent General Robert Huyser to speak with the senior Iranian generals and gauge their attitude. Twitter and Facebook in Egypt—and both exploded in major regional states. with big swollen cities like Cairo and Tehran containing both the most and least educated people in the country: a relatively narrow educated elite and a broad mass of slum-dwellers. Vance was horrified. No.” to re-arrest political prisoners.” As Carter reacted to events in Iran.S. Frozen by opposing views. particularly to a man who is cut off from the normal sources. He is the author of Quicksand: America’s Pursuit of Power in the Middle East. “Geopolitics is not a kindergarten class. when he predicted. Brzezinski reopened his attack. Just as we today worry that fundamentalists might hijack the Tunisian. read classified and unclassified reports from all sources.” others thought tens of thousands. and prevented Washington from acting swiftly and decisively to steer the Iranian revolution in a moderate direction. or even topple the shah. Carter appointed 68-yearold George Ball to sift through conflicting reports to determine just what the U.S. and serve as a distant “regent” until things cooled down.S. and to flood the streets with troops and tanks. Brzezinski spoke of an “arc of crisis” in the Middle East—a wave of unrest in Islamic countries. Today in Cairo. who they assumed would open corruption investigations that would lead back to the military. Since most Iranians were “poorly educated and highly ignorant.-supplied militaries. just how Iranian demographics would shape the coming upheaval. Geoffrey Wawro is the General Olinto Mark Barsanti Professor of Military History and Director of the Military History Center at the University of North Texas. and expressed their willingness to launch a coup to keep the shah in power. More than just the right words will be needed. “You can tell a friend what you think. there was no credible moderate opposition to undergird a generals’ coup. The seven Iranian generals Huyser met with expressed their readiness to kill “100.” and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has warned there must not be “a takeover that would lead to oppression. were regarded in Washington as “family friends. “One of the obligations of friendship is to give advice. would have to vest its hopes in the Iranian military. William Sullivan. Hosni Mubarak and Shah Muhammed Reza Pahlavi. Both simmered under the rule of corrupt strongmen who had held power for three decades. Obama is speaking bluntly with Mubarak about the need for change. and set up a moderate caretaker government.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 96/148 Cross-X. When the shah left Iran in January 1979 to have his cancer treated.000 Iranians” if necessary. and then met with Carter to render his verdict. The strategic threat of that—then and now—was outlined by the U. Noting Carter’s hesitation. ambassador in Tehran in 1970. “1/31/2011. which held the most promise in late 1978.” Ball persisted. and Lebanese emergencies. which was still loyal to the shah. Ball worked hard for two weeks.” a clear reference to Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood. The president must prop up the shah. was undone by fights between Cyrus Vance’s State Department and Zbigniew Brzezinski’s National Security Council. who is surrounded by sycophants. with big populations. What they needed—all seven declared—was unflinching U. strong internal security services and powerful.” to borrow Hillary Clinton’s phrase. Both were triggered by new media—audiocassettes in Iran. In December 1978.” Carter protested. vomited out in “a national regurgitation by the Iranian people. http://www. pro-Khomeini demonstrations broke out in every Iranian city. What Huyser discovered was interesting. Although Brzezinski and Brown in . The Obama team should be looking closely at Washington’s awful mismanagement of the Iranian revolution of 1978-79 to make sure they do not repeat the errors of the Carter administration. The letter was never sent.com Thursday File Egypt – Influence K2 Avoid Islam Rise American support is critical to ensure a transition that does not give power to the radical Muslim Brotherhood. The generals feared the Islamists. State thought the shah was doomed and that Washington needed to reach some accommodation with the Khomeini camp. President Obama is facing similar hard choices. The revolutions in Cairo and Tehran have much in common.thedailybeast. The president has called for an “orderly transition. Both had complex societies. rifts in the U. with astonishing accuracy. Fortunately. Brzezinski drafted a letter for Carter to send to the shah that baldly enjoined him to use force against the demonstrators.S.” he reminded the president. Iranian generals met with the U. to shut down the press. beginning with Iran—that the Soviets might hijack. but must hold on to police powers and military and foreign affairs. Jordanian.” The Carter administration was as startled by the revolution in Tehran as Obama was by the wave of revolutions from Tunis to Cairo.S. Carter expressed astonishing diffidence.000 deaths. The shah was finished. to reassure allies and deter the Soviets. The error in Tehran in 1979 was one of omission. Carter’s CIA had predicted that nothing much would change in Iran through 1985: “Iran is not in a revolutionary or even pre-revolutionary situation. purge the fundamentalist opposition. Only the Shiite clergy—like the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt—remained intact and powerful as a political force. turn affairs over to a reliable government. Such a plan. Egyptian.S.” Carter refused to have that conversation with the shah. government confused and demoralized him. ambassador in Tehran. Wawro – 1/31 (Dr. But decades of repression and fake elections had crushed Iran’s secular parties. to restore the shah or an authoritarian regime. Another wave of riots swept through Tehran in January 1979.” any truly democratic movement would “be in a reactionary obscurantist direction under the clergy. Ball’s moderates were used-up hacks who wouldn’t stand a chance against Khomeini’s mobs. backing. ought to do about Iran.

exiled. The Egyptian army must be restrained. Embassy could no longer be protected. Carter selected a negative program: merely cultivating contacts with moderate Islamic clergy. The president still effectively controlled the Iranian generals and might have fashioned a moderate reform coalition under their aegis. mixed “provisional revolutionary government.S. The imperial military’s hour had seemingly arrived.” an American colonel named Colin Powell observed from the Pentagon.com Thursday File Washington and General Alexander Haig at NATO headquarters in Belgium were still for unleashing the Iranian military against the ayatollahs—“give the officers a go-ahead. But the hand we played in 1979 was self-nullifying. or shot. officers.” President Obama is now holding our Egypt policy in his hands. Mubarak should turn power over to a respected politician bolstered by Omar Suleiman’s reformed security services. Khomeini’s komitehs— Islamic militias and revolutionary courts—were rounding up the shah’s courtiers. He must move fast and deal bluntly with President Mubarak. warning that anti-American sentiment was boiling over in the streets and the press. rather than in a country. He and his subordinates recommended the embassy staff be reduced to “six officers and a vicious dog. The army stood down and let the demonstrations disarm it.” Brown urged Brzezinski—Carter refused to roll the dice. and helped usher in the Islamic Republic of Iran.” None of this will be easily accomplished. . refusing even to dispatch a carrier to the Persian Gulf. The Iranian generals threw in the towel.) With Washington in retreat. Carter must have wished he had heeded the warning. Just as Egyptian fighter jets are orbiting Cairo in a show of strength. The generals made a last appeal to Ambassador Sullivan for support. the generals declared “neutrality”. and that the U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 97/148 Cross-X. our Iran policy fell with him. and politicians in the vain hope that they would counter Khomeini’s radicalism and step in if the ayatollah’s movement unraveled. which has vexed and weakened American policy for more than 30 years. It wasn’t. but Carter remained inert. he relayed the request to Washington. “When the shah fell. all our investment in an individual.” (When the embassy was actually seized eight months later. and America has only an auxiliary role. Sullivan cabled Washington on February 27. who will loosen their grip but not permit the Muslim Brotherhood to knock over a “national unity government” as easily as Khomeini crushed Iran’s first. the Iranian air force did the same in early February 1979. “In Iran. credible opposition moderates like Mohamed ElBaradei must be empowered to move the country forward without a breakdown in security or an Islamist coup. Carter decided that Iran was Khomeini’s. came to naught. Instead. most were arrested.

“The question is whether that supply gets cut off at some point. 2011. If a new Egyptian government.”.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 98/148 Cross-X. decides to block the canal.com/printstory. “Egypt: Worst scenarios for W.cfm? uuid=DE7516BA-D472-D8ED-D73BCE853D37CED6) CJC Egypt produces no oil and is hardly an economic powerhouse with global reach. experts say. February 1. but that’s a risk. the market doesn’t think it’s all that likely.com Thursday File Brotherhood = Price Spikes Muslim Brotherhood control risks cutting off Oil from the Middle East devastating our econ recover and causing Oil Spikes. That could have a disastrous impact on an economy that has just begun picking up steam.H.” former Obama car czar Steve Rattner. “Right now. up to more than $92 per barrel.” Oil traders have begun factoring in that risk: Since Friday. perhaps one dominated by the anti-U. prices have soared about 7 percent. http://dyn. . especially if any such blockade includes Egypt’s critical Sumed pipeline.politico. but it controls the Suez Canal.S. pinch point of the Mideast oil supply. speaking on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” said Monday. Muslim Brotherhood. driving per-barrel prices to $120 or more and gas prices at the pump well beyond $4 a gallon. when the first huge demonstrations rocked Cairo. tankers would be forced to undertake the six-to-eight-week trek around the Horn of Africa. POLITICO – 2/1 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico and Mike Allen is the chief political correspondent for Politico and Laura Rozen is a reporter at POLITICO.

Mohamed El Baradei. 2011. Western business in an Islamic theocracy But a revolution can quickly turn. Such a scenario could occur in Egypt. Egypt also has a small. from liberals to Islamic fundamentalists. The United States is a major exporter to the country. Apache's large investment in Egypt has not gone unnoticed by the markets. like in Egypt. much of which is recycled back to US defense contractors like Boeing (BA. The most powerful group with the largest following usually comes out on top. with a total investment of more than $7 billion over the past 17 years. Lockheed Martin (LMT. The largest and most organized of the opposition groups is the Muslim Brotherhood. The US supplies wheat. That is equivalent to about 50% of the estimated value of Apache's Egyptian assets. A possible revolution in the most populous and influential nation in the Arab world shouldn't be taken lightly given the possibility of an anti-Western government coming to power in Cairo. but the economic backdrop is similar. corn and soybeans to Egypt averaging around $2 billion a year. Fortune 500). Fortune 500) and Cargill. There are of course very large differences between Arab Egypt today and Persian Iran 32 years ago. http://money.com/2011/01/31/news/international/egypt_economic_interests. But no company has more exposure to the energy sector in Egypt like Apache Corporation (APA. Fortune 500). have banded together to oust Mubarak.3 billion in military aid to Egypt. El Baradei. contributor. did not come about overnight. and has several western energy companies working in the country. It has no formal connection with Washington but it does have strong ties to Tehran.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 99/148 Cross-X. It's not yet clear what kind of government would emerge if the current autocratic regime led by President Hosni Mubarak were to fall. especially the United States. Wall Street has wiped $5 billion off Apache's market value since the riots began amid fears that a new government could expropriate their land concessions. is now leading the opposition groups' newly formed steering committee. Fortune 500). It's not without reason. bringing about the angst that we see today. What is clear is that US economic interests in the entire region would be at risk if Egypt falls under the veil of Islamic fundamentalism. but noteworthy energy sector. The scenes from the protests in Egypt look eerily similar to ones that swept Iran 32 years ago. ranging from US foes like Syria to staunch US FORTUNE -allies like Jordan and Saudi Arabia. In Iran. seemed to catch the world. the Islamic fundamentalists had the poor firmly in their grasp and used their mass to overwhelm the other groups. who won a Nobel Peacce Prize for his leadership of the IAEA. ADM (ADM. making up around 10% of Egypt's total imports. who is critical of President Obama's reluctance to call for Mubarak's resignation. Fortune 500).ht m) CJC The recent demonstrations in Egypt have rocked world markets and sent investors scrambling for the exits. They provide support for older US-made military equipment. The US also delivers $1. totally off guard. which has alleviated some fears on Wall Street and Washington. “Biggest corporate stakes in Egypt's power shift”. is pushing for a peaceful transition to democracy.cnn. Fortune 500).com Thursday File Brotherhood = Econ Collapse Muslim Brotherhood coming into power would collapse Western economies. Fortune 500) and Raytheon (RTN. A confluence of economic changes in both countries helped widen the divide between the rich and the poor. The revolution that swept Iran and seems to be festering in Egypt. January 31. It has said it wants to establish Sharia (Islamic) law in the country and ban all women and Christians from government (Christians make up 10% of the population of Egypt). Fortune 500). That could hurt the sales of companies like ConAgra (CAG.fortune/index. which led to the establishment of an anti-western Islamic Republic. which funds their activities. They seemed to have sprung out of nowhere but offered some hope that the dictator ruling the country would fall to a more democratic regime. General Dynamics (GD. Northrup Grumman (NOC. The protests in 1978 and 1979. It could lead to the expulsion of US and Western companies from Egypt and threaten the stability of more secular Arab states. and also sell Egypt new weapons. So if Egypt falls to an Islamic theocracy. European oil companies like the UK's BP (BP) and Italy's ENI (E) have had a major presence in the country for decades drilling for oil and gas. and the US State Department. They eventually turned on their former coalition partners and wiped them out. . a banned Islamic resistance movement that is not on the friendliest of terms with the West. CNN Money – 1/31 (Cyrus Sanati. Egypt now accounts for a quarter of the company's earnings. It is by far the largest US investor in Egypt. it will probably spell bad news for the western companies operating in the country. like the F-4 and F-16 attack fighters. Disparate Egyptian opposition groups.

But his policy of appeasement toward radical Islam has yet to have any bad consequence. Obama is committing the same sin that Dwight Eisenhower did in Cuba and Jimmy Carter did in Iran.html) CJC Obama better hope that the crowds clamoring for an overthrow of the Hosni Mubarak regime really do achieve a functioning liberal democracy rather than an Iranian-style theocracy. Morris – 2/2 (Dick Morris. Look at what Carter's abandonment of the Shah has cost the world and is likely to cost it in the future. But losing Egypt to the grip of Islamic fundamentalism would be a huge blow to the United States. where one nation after another falls to Islamism. Any coalition with the Brotherhood is as likely to remain secular as Adolf Hitler's early coalition with Paul von Hindenburg in Germany was likely to stay non-Nazi. We have had some terror attacks. Until now. http://www. If he permits Egypt to slip through our fingers and go over to the Iranian sphere of influence. The Muslim Brotherhood is allied closely with Hamas. with each new theocratic conquest destabilizing its neighbor. The Muslim Brotherhood will take over if it gets its foot in the door.) and President Bill Clinton. their 154 million almost equal the combined population of all the other nations in North Africa and the Middle East. to be sure. To the extent that it masquerades as a peaceful body. it is a wolf in sheep's clothing. they could control the region. a former political adviser to Sen. It would literally open the door to a theocratic Iranian-style empire stretching from Morocco to Iran. He needs to understand that the radical Islamists mean us ill and that any effort to appease them is bound to fail.com/articles/2011/02/02/will_obama_lose_egypt_108751. loses office over a foreign policy blunder. Together. . he may find himself confronted with a Middle Eastern version of the old domino theory. he will pay for it politically in 2012.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 100/148 Cross-X. “ Obama Following a Very Risky Strategy With Egypt”. By failing to back Mubarak. Trent Lott (R-Miss.com Thursday File Brotherhood = ME Instability Allowing the Muslim Brotherhood in the door would open all of the Middle East to extremism undermining American leadership globally and completely destabilizing the Middle East. to Israel and to the entire Western world. Imagine if this president. but none have risen to the level of a cataclysm. We now face the possibility that a radicalized Egypt could be Obama's gift to the globe. If Egypt and Iran were to work in tandem. whose domestic policy initiatives are coming apart at the seams. Americans have regarded Obama's flirtation with the Arab street with a mild concern that he may be too naive in his understanding of that part of the world. February 2. Just as Richard Nixon helped to discredit Harry Truman President and defeat Democratic presidential nominee Adlai Stevenson in 1952 by trumpeting the question. If Egypt falls. Obama will have permanently damaged America's vital interests. "Who lost China?" Obama may well have to explain how and why he lost Egypt.realclearpolitics. Remember that Iran has a population of 79 million and Egypt has 75 million. His re-election hopes may be doomed if Iran takes over. 2011. Inspired by an Islamic takeover in Egypt.

with the support of the Muslim Brotherhood." Let me update that. “Face in the Crowd”. February 3.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 101/148 Cross-X. Warren – 2/3 (David Warren. many imams apparently told their flocks to go swell the demonstrators' ranks.realclearpolitics. between the Mubarak regime and the "spoilt children of Egypt's middle classes" -.because the Egyptian army is distancing itself from him -. But this support remained cautious. "until fresh factors come into play.inspired by the riots in Tunisia to try their luck in Tahrir Square. Political Reporter. at Friday prayers.com Thursday File Muslim Brother Hood Pushing For Power Muslim Brotherhood is rising to take power. against Bush. At first they presented themselves as entirely neutral. http://www.are the valves fully opening.com/articles/2011/02/03/face_in_the_crowd_108750. The latter have reached for power fairly cleverly. Then. "No one can predict what will come of" the Egyptian demonstrations.the man who ran interference for the Iranian regime.html) CJC Four days ago I wrote that. Mohamed ElBaradei -. 2011. was chief UN atomic weapons inspector -- . Only now that Mubarak's position is untenable -. and is the Muslim Brotherhood appropriating the revolution. when he is now well placed for the succession to Hosni Mubarak.

H.com/printstory. a more militant Cairo could wipe out whatever remaining hope lingered for an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal.” Munayyer added. http://dyn. ally in the region. And that could. . Israel. February 1.cfm?uuid=DE7516BA-D472-D8EDD73BCE853D37CED6) CJC The most obvious danger. perversely. according to administration officials.politico. “But the illusion of a real peace with Israel is over. “We’re not talking about another war.com Thursday File Brotherhood = No MEPP Radical takeover will undermine Egypt-Israel Peace Accords and gut any possibility of a successful MEPP. one of the reasons the Egyptian army remains so popular among its people was its near success against Israel during the bloody Yom Kippur war in 1973.” Even if Egypt and Israel don’t come to blows. push Obama — a president who vowed to improve relations with the Arab world — back into a much closer alliance with Israel after two years of tense relations with the traditional U. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been meeting around the clock with advisers. In fact. POLITICO – 2/1 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico and Mike Allen is the chief political correspondent for Politico and Laura Rozen is a reporter at POLITICO.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 102/148 Cross-X. “Egypt: Worst scenarios for W. is that any new Egyptian regime will almost certainly adopt a more militant stance toward its partner in peace for more than three decades. gaming out the various scenarios — ranging from chillier relations to A new Egypt-Israel conflict Nasser-type saber rattling in Cairo.”.S. 2011.

A post-Mubarak Egypt is inevitable. especially given the divergence of views between Washington and Cairo about the timetable for change and the role that should be played by Mr Mubarak. Time is needed anyway for changes to be made in the constitution to allow for more democracy. The respected Middle East commentator and former US ambassador to Israel. While Egypt is still in flux. 2011. The Americans. The 82-year-old leader is the sticking point. http://www. are unpredictable -. whatever the timing.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 103/148 Cross-X.com Thursday File Transition K2 Check Muslim Brotherhood Timing is everything. Martin Indyk. The military will be a critical partner in the transition government and checking back extremist rise. February 04. Immediate elections would result in a takeover by the Muslim Brotherhood. But with the clashes continuing overnight. . The challenge for Egypt's powerbrokers is to increase popular participation in the life of the nation. as commentator Daniel Pipes wrote in this newspaper on Wednesday. argued on ABC TV Lateline on Wednesday night that Egyptians will not accept a process overseen by Mr Mubarak because they "simply do not trust him to ensure there will be a free and fair election". In the short term. appear to be looking for an interim government that would minimise Mr Mubarak's role and give everyone a chance to regroup. if not the protesters -. it appears likely. The Australian – 2/4 (“High stakes in the square”. Those impatient for change should remember that revolutions.witness the failures of the 2009 Green Movement in Iran and the Cedar Revolution in Lebanon in 2005.au/news/opinion/high-stakes-in-the-square/story-e6frg71x1225999765488) CJC The immediate question is how to move forward.theaustralian.witness the deposition of the shah in 1979 that ushered in the Islamic republic in Iran. but popular protests do not always bear fruit -.that will be most crucial in determining what happens next. that "the militaries will remain the ultimate powerbrokers" in the Middle East.com. it is the military -. anxious that immediate elections would open wide the door to the Muslim Brotherhood (outlawed but experienced in running independent candidates at earlier elections) in the absence of other strong opposition parties. even when successful. how long before anarchy forces the hand of the military? Some have wanted to present Tahrir Square as the "Berlin Wall" of the Middle East. but ensure that in the process extremist Islam does not secure a foothold.which continues to position itself on the side of the people. The army did not intervene in the chaotic events in Tahrir Square yesterday as pro-Mubarak riders on horses and camels clashed with the anti-government protesters. The US must ensure that there is a transition government.

they fail to mention that its goals are similar to al-Qaida's.com/articles/2011/02/13/beware_the_muslim_brotherhood_108878. once described the Ayatollah Khomeini as "some kind of saint." said John Podhoretz of Commentary magazine. They are based on ignorance of reality. Andrew Young. ambassador. a former Marine and Green Beret." The Muslim brothers are bad guys. that it grew to prominence because of its alliance with Adolf Hitler and that -. Obama administration cluelessness about the brotherhood is dangerously reminiscent of Carter administration policy toward Iran in 1979. was a deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force in the Reagan administration. ***Foreign Aid*** ." "This is one of the most reckless and irresponsible statements ever made publicly by an American official at a critical and delicate moment. President Jimmy Carter's U. 2011.realclearpolitics. “Beware the Muslim Brotherhood”. Kelly – 2/13 (Jack Kelly. In testimony to the House Intelligence Committee Thursday.as the Obama administration was.it is the father of all current terror groups in the Middle East. James Clapper.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 104/148 Cross-X. http://www. described the brotherhood as "largely secular.com Thursday File A2: Muslim Brotherhood Not Threat Claims of Muslim Brotherhood moderation have no warrants. Confusion about the Muslim Brotherhood is not limited to journalists.which have been dominated by young people who seem genuinely interested in freedom and democracy -.ht ml) CJC When journalists tout the brotherhood's "moderation" because it has publicly eschewed violence. February 13. But they seem to have been as surprised by the protests -.according to Kuwait's education minister -. the Director of National Intelligence.N.

the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee. "President Mubarak's decision to stand down from future leadership of the government is welcome. “Obama says change in Egypt "must begin now"”. a Democrat. Later Friday.S. “AT A GLANCE: Egypt's Mubarak Steps Down. Staff.bloomberg. Vt.S. "We (the United States) should do what we can to support a transition to democracy including. 2011. who chairs the Senate appropriations subcommittee that approves U.S. Military Takes Over”. but his continued role in Egypt's transition is unrealistic.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military.com/article/BT-CO-20110211-713327. Wall Street Journal – 2/11 (Staff. “I urge the Egyptian military to faithfully support and secure the coming process of political change in Egypt." said Senator Patrick Leahy. The U.S. FEBRUARY 11. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. Feb 1. Reuters – 2/1 (Caren Bohan and Andrew Quinn.. http://www. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”." Leahy. withholding aid to the government. Failure for Obama to get results means that Congress will take action and cut off aid to Egypt.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-obamaidUSTRE7109F720110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC U. if it becomes necessary.” Congress will cut aid if military fails to ensure transition.reuters. foreign aid.html) CJC Sen. warned annual U. aid to Egypt could be "at risk" if Cairo's military thwarts a transition to democratic rule. and he renewed a threat to withhold aid from Egypt if it necessary to push for democracy there.html) CJC Congress could cut back the aid if Egypt moves in a direction contrary to U.S. 2011.” said Arizona Senator John McCain.com Thursday File Congress Cut Aid Congress would cut aid if it felt Egyptian Military was going the wrong direction. including peace with Israel. http://online. Some . policy.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 105/148 Cross-X. “Public Praise. senator who oversees foreign aid said Mubarak had no credibility to oversee Egypt's transition. lawmakers also reacted with skepticism to Mubarak's announcement. reporter for Bloomberg News. 2011.wsj. http://www.). Patrick Leahy (D. Feb 13. “The Egyptian people are demanding a meaningful and irreversible transition to democracy. said. who heads the committee responsible for yearly spending on diplomacy and international aid.

Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell. but if the issue is not resolved they are willing to gut it. 2011. which has been running at $1.S. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC U. That could lead to a battle over withholding aid to Egypt later this month. http://www. when lawmakers will get an opportunity to make changes. Much depends on events between now and then. WASHINGTON (Reuters) - .5 billion a year. Views of the Egyptian turmoil vary on Capitol Hill. Feb 2. lawmakers are unlikely to slash American aid to Egypt quickly. aid to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's government. but they are watching to see where unrest there leads.com Thursday File Aid: Peaceful Transition K2 Prevent Cut US won’t cut aid now.reuters. Staff. congressional aides and analysts said on Wednesday.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 106/148 Cross-X. the Republican-run House of Representatives seems more cautious than the Democratic-run Senate about cutting U.S. For now.

com/news/opinion/editorials/la-ed-egypt-20110203. Anti-Americanism has been a minor theme in the protests. and there are strong cultural. Obama’s advisers believed that the informal checks and balances that had kept Egypt firmly in America’s corner would continue with or without Mubarak." Both in public and in every other communications channel. peppering his foreign policy team with questions about the relationship between Egyptian police and the military. siding with the police would be tantamount to abandoning the U. 2011. 2011. “Misconceptions about the Egyptian crisis”.story) CJC A policy of the Mubarak regime that is likely — but not guaranteed — to survive the transition is Egypt's intimate relationship with the United States. and on Sunday Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton finally announced U. flows directly to them. and for good reason . both sides in Egypt have been aggressively appealing for support from the Obama administration.S. support for a "transition" to "real democracy. 2011. Publicly insinuating that future money would be conditioned on how Egyptian leaders handled the protesters demand was less of a direct threat than simply the application of direct leverage: Mubarak would have to tread lightly when ordering his military to backstop his police. February 1.com/wpdyn/content/article/2011/01/31/AR2011013104517. the administration should be making explicit the connection between future funding for the Egyptian military and that democratic transition. The military connection is the only way that US-Egypt relations will remain and aid is the lynch-pin.com/whitehouse/a-white-house-policy-on-egypt-evolves-20110201) CJC The Brotherhood had done a poor job of recruiting young Egyptians. Obama turned his intelligence briefing into a seminar about Egypt. aid to Egypt would be contingent upon the country’s reactions to the protests. US has the necessary influence to shape the outcome in Egypt because of its Aid package. for the military.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 107/148 Cross-X. During his mid-day press briefing Friday. The White House has rightly hinted that that aid is now at stake. The military was the key: most of the more then $1 billion in annual aid. http://www.com Thursday File Aid K2 Leverage Aid to Egypt gives the US direct influence over the military. February 3. and it mostly reflected outrage over the slowness of the United States to dissociate itself from Mubarak. (and the military aid that accompanies it). January 31.S. That is why they did not fight protestors. values the relationship with the U. a legacy of the SadatBegin peace accord.6393912. educational and economic ties between the two countries built over many years. Aid is critical to the US continuing to have relations. which is a much respected and highly influential institution. LA Times – 2/3 (Staff. The army. its membership ranks were fewer than polls showed. . http://www.the United States supplies $1. Ambinder – 2/1 (Marc Ambinder is the White House Correspondent for National Journal Group. In fact. which had reached gale-force size. “A White House Policy on Egypt Evolves”. including well more than $1 billion for the Egyptian military.html) CJC The most misguided assertion in Washington holds that the United States lacks the capacity to influence the outcome of the Egyptian crisis. press secretary Robert Gibbs seemed to imply that further U.5 billion in annual aid to Egypt.nationaljournal. Washington Post – 1/31 (Editorial Staff.latimes. The strong secular undercurrent in most major Egyptian cities kept the Brotherhood in check as much as the heavy-handed security forces did. http://www.S.S. “Egypt after Mubarak”.0.washingtonpost. On Friday morning.

Staff. aid to Egypt is military and has gone for things like M1A1 Abrams battle tanks and F-16 fighter aircraft. analysts say. . The unrest in Egypt and other Middle Eastern countries could put the brakes on billions of dollars of arms sales to the entire region.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 108/148 Cross-X. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”.S. http://www.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Most U. Feb 2.com Thursday File Aid K2 Arms Sales Cutting aid to Egypt puts the brakes on billions of dollars in regional arms sales. 2011.reuters. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell.

Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell. 2011. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”.reuters." he added. which he says has "no credibility" to oversee the transition to democracy. And obviously. Crowley said last week the United States would continue to monitor how Egypt's military responds to the crisis -suggesting that a major army intervention to put down protests might trigger a change. Staff. “The welcome restraint and professionalism shown by the Egyptian Army so far is a testament to the long relationship between our two countries.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 109/148 Cross-X. the administration can stop that money at any time. Questions of Aid Get Complicated”. "There is money in the pipeline. 2011. referring to the Mubarak government. Staff. and our values. Feb 2." Leahy told Reuters Insider Television. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell." "Those would be very appropriate areas to spend American aid. Leahy suggested on Wednesday that Washington should think about economic aid for a new government in Cairo.J. we'll make adjustments as we need to. Chris Strohm covers homeland security and intelligence for National Journal Group. “Post-Mubarak.com Thursday File Aid Cut Quickly Obama can cut off aid in the pipeline immediately if there is not a peaceful resolution. State Department spokesman P. if it becomes necessary. Feb 2. http://www. "There are stipulations in terms of the behavior of recipients of our assistance. Congress will cut aid to speed up the transition.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Democratic Senator Patrick Leahy chairs the Senate subcommittee in charge of foreign aid and has taken a harder line on continuing aid to the Mubarak government. http://www. withholding aid to the government. "But it's certainly not going to be spent on a government that must leave and is dragging its feet on leaving.nationaljournal. .” he said." he said. Senate is willing to gut aid quickly.com/member/daily/post-mubarak-questions-of-aid-get-complicated-20110201) CJC In his own statement. if aid is used in a way that is contrary to our laws. February 2.reuters.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Leahy added the Obama administration could stop spending money already appropriated by Congress for this year. House and Strohm – 2/2 (Billy House is a Congress writer for National Journal. saying he hoped for a transition to a government that would address joblessness and hunger and "the suffering of the people. Leahy said.” “But we should do what we can to support a transition to democracy including. 2011. http://www." he said. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”. our policies.

Egypt has been a moderate influence in the Middle East and has a peace agreement with Israel. http://www." Granger said. 2011. I am continuing to monitor the events on the ground very closely.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 110/148 Cross-X. and might take a different approach. The Democratic-run Senate will act on the funding bill after the House. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”. . The chambers would then have to work out their differences. Senate will wait to act until after house which means they can reconcile the difference. response to events in Egypt will be.S. "It is critical that we are deliberate about the actions we take. Feb 2.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC The House Republican who chairs the committee on foreign aid. Representative Kay Granger. urged caution this week in deciding what the U.com Thursday File Egypt – A2: No Aid Cut – Budget Aid can be cut in the coming budget.reuters. Staff. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell.

" State's Crowley said on Monday. would be reviewed as events unfold but U. 2011. military aid to Egypt. Our relationship has been a stabilizing one. struggles for policy”.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-idUSTRE71175920110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC The White House said last week U. which runs about $1.com Thursday File Egypt – Aid On Table US is putting the question of Aid to Egypt on the table. “U. "Our assistance to Egypt is longstanding.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 111/148 Cross-X.reuters. urges restraint in Egypt. ***Iran*** . It is based on the work that we've done together. Feb 2. officials have indicated it would not be quickly cut off.S. http://www.S.S.3 billion per year. Reuters – 2/2 (Arshad Mohammed and Andrew Quinn.

http://www. unpredictable and. and what set the Egyptian government so off-kilter. 2/15/11. takes Egypt wisdom to Iran”. some of the same activists who led Iran’s failed Green Revolution in 2009 are taking to the streets again — and facing the same. coupled with near-complete suppression of the media.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 112/148 Cross-X. But the absence of a diplomatic relationship. unrest in Iran has festered for more than a year — which analysts believe has prepared the Ahmadinejad regime to respond swiftly to threats of opposition. a national security policy chairman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. which the White House openly admitted came as a surprise.” said Anthony Cordesman. Unlike Egypt’s scenario. Unlike Mubarak.S.” At the same time. “Iran has been in a period of turmoil now for a full 18 months. near-certain threat of government-backed. make the situation in Iran more unstable. “We wish the opposition and the brave people in the streets across cities in Iran the same opportunity that they saw the Egyptians seize. “What I think was so powerful. Following the popular uprising in Egypt that toppled the 30-year authoritarian regime of President Hosni Mubarak. “Let me very clearly and directly support the aspirations of the people who are in the streets in Iran today.politico. It ensures stable transitions between regimes. adversary and the subject of United Nations sanctions.” Maloney said. who served as an Iranian affairs adviser in the Bush-era State Department.com Thursday File Diplomacy = Iran Transition Continued focus for our diplomacy efforts is critical in the Middle East. which lessens the extent to which the State Department and the White House have to conduct diplomatic back flips in their public statements. Phillip – 2/15 (Abby Phillip is a staff writer.” said Suzanne Maloney.” By contrast.html) CJC A second test of President Barack Obama’s Middle East foreign policy is brewing in the streets of Tehran this week. more dangerous. “Basic problem that you face here is that you have to deal with this country by country. The uprising in Iran can be successful with continued effective US diplomacy. . the diplomatic scenarios in Iran are dramatically different. US must stay focused on a country by country basis. “There’s no real way to predict which of the pressures for change [in the Mideast] are going to become serious and reach a crisis point. potentially.” Administration officials are monitoring events in Iran closely and attempting to gauge whether the latest street demonstrations will gain momentum. which drew flak for sending mixed messages during the crisis.H. The White House and the State Department. the Iranian regime has learned from last year’s protests and the outcome in Egypt — lessons that could prompt the government to launch a more systematic and unbridled crackdown on dissent. The administration’s response to protests in Tehran on Monday largely mirrored its public statements three weeks ago after demonstrators filled the streets of Cairo. The Obama administration also learned from the Egyptian revolution. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a U. “They’re watching for this. day in and day out. Maloney said. has been careful to speak with a unified voice — including efforts to spread democracy to Iran. violent repression. was simply that this came out of nowhere.com/news/stories/0211/49513.” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told reporters Monday. “W.

Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 113/148 Cross-X.com Thursday File ***** Affirmative Answers***** .

also includes a Christian supreme court judge. Feb 13. US does not have influence over Egyptian military.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military. The military's choices for the panel's makeup were a sign of the new political legitimacy of the Muslim Brotherhood. Feb. use of existing research. Diplomatic capital doesn’t trade off – the state department can collaborate and hire more people to avoid any tradeoff. one of its members Mohammed Hassanein Abdel-Al. 2011. and assessment of U. Two members on the panel said the next elected government could further change the document if it choses. Non-Unique: Muslim Brotherhood has already been included in the current negotiations and elections are coming fast.” said Graeme Bannerman. http://www. http://www. including expanded use of opinion research and better designate more administrative positions to overseas public affairs sections to reduce the administrative burden. even after more than 30 years and billions of dollars of U.thesunnews. Among the panel's members is Sobhi Saleh.S. a former lawmaker from the Brotherhood seen as part of its reformist wing.S.bloomberg. 14. “Public Praise. Public Diplomacy: State Department Expands Efforts but Faces Significant Challenges: GAO-03-951. The panel is to draw up changes at a breakneck pace . “The fact that we have a good relationship means that they’re going to listen to you. “In the end. lobbyist for Egypt who’s now a scholar for the Middle East Institute in Washington.html#storylink=mirelated) CJC Egypt's long banned Muslim Brotherhood said Tuesday it intends to form a political party once democracy is established. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. GAO-03-951. a legal scholar told The Associated Press.within 10 days . now suspended by the military. The initial changes may not be enough for many in Egypt calling for the current constitution. they’ll make the decision based on what is best in the Egyptians’ national interest.Associated Press reporters.S. and • program adequate time for public diplomacy training into State’s assignment process. which met with Defense Minister Hussein Tantawi on Tuesday.com/2011/02/14/1981307/egypts-us-envoy-says-mubarakmay. a former U. The panel's convening indicated the military was trying to push ahead quickly with a transition after Mubarak resigned Friday in the face of 18 days of unprecedented popular protests that massed hundreds of thousands.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 114/148 Cross-X. 2011. • consider ways to collaborate with the private sector to employ best practices for measuring efforts to inform and influence target audiences. 2.com Thursday File ***2AC F/L*** 1. 4 September 2003. along with other judges and legal experts. we recommend that the Secretary of State • develop and widely disseminate throughout the department a strategy that considers the techniques of private sector public relations firms in integrating all of State’s public diplomacy efforts and directing them toward achieving common and measurable objectives. officials and analysts say. Sun News – 2/14 (LEE KEATH and HAMZA HENDAWI . EBSCO) To improve the planning. assistance as part of a two-way bargain. execution.S. “U. assistance. unleashed by the turmoil. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. as the country's new military rulers launched a panel of experts to amend the country's constitution enough to allow democratic elections later this year. reporter for Bloomberg News.S. The military is now also urging an end to labor strikes that spread wildly across the country Sunday and Monday. The eight-member committee.” The Egyptian military may also have acquired some of its professional standards and .”. coordination. CAIRO -which it ensured through widespread election rigging. to be thrown out completely and rewritten to ensure no one can once again establish autocratic rule.to end the monopoly that ousted President Hosni Mubarak's ruling party once held. a widely respected former judge and scholar who was once a secular leftist but later became one of the most foremost thinkers of what Egyptians refer to as the "moderate Islamic" political trend and is seen as a bridge between the movements. • strengthen efforts to train Foreign Service officers in foreign languages. • 3. “Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood plans political party”. the fundamentalist group that was the most bitter rival of Mubarak's regime. GAO 2003 (Government Accountability Office.html) CJC The Egyptian military can afford to exercise its independence from foreign interference. because of its relative professionalism and its view of U. The panel is headed by Tareq el-Bishri. public diplomacy efforts. not that they’re going to follow you.

“Mubarak's Departure Raises Tough Questions for U.Kashmir. and the first Gulf War. conventional diplomacy has either not been tried or not been very successful.com Thursday File ethics while studying at U. and the U. More than 500 a year come to the U. There were. Effective American diplomacy may well be going the way of the dodo. and India) can't be of much help. and the sad fact is there may be little Barack Obama can do about it. it seems. and economic power toward impressive ends. doggedly pursuing Middle East peace. http://www. What's more. personnel. these are the easy ones.the United States is hampered by conflicts driven by deep ethnic and religious hostility and by internal politics in which its own allies (Israel. including the Vietnam War and out-of-control CIA operations." There's always a danger in idealizing what once was or seemed to be in order to make a point about the present. Foreign Policy. who help them adapt to the American weapons and equipment they receive. extractive regimes are unable to control their own territory and cut deals with anti-American elements and place their security and political concerns first. military educational institutions such as the service war colleges and the National Defense University. and have already begun thinking through what may come next. Pakistan. the early 1970s. But there were also brilliant achievements: the Marshall Plan. it's from the small. Still. achieving dramatic breakthroughs with spectacular secret diplomacy seems a world away.America has been in a diplomatic dry patch.S. in addition to the contacts they have in Egypt with U. For most of the last 16 years. you really do have to wonder whether America's best diplomacy and foreign policy are behind it. And in one of the cruelest ironies of all. Israel”.S. 1. No more. Miller. the U. for advanced training. the problems are four parts military. détente with the Russians. and nasty regional conflicts. effective Arab-Israeli diplomacy. The US does not have influence on the events in Egypt. once upon a time. and Somalia. president who has gone further to engage Iran than any of his predecessors is watching any hope for diplomacy being ground up by a regime under siege in Tehran. 2011. Feb. opening to China. But frankly. The world's gotten complicated. political.com/mubarak-s-departure-raises-toughquestions-for-u-s-israel-20110201) CJC Policymakers in Washington and Jerusalem have assumed for days that Mubarak would soon step down. The Obama administration wants to do this kind of stuff. "there were wonderful giants of old. NATO. Dreazen – 2/1 ( Yochi Dreazen is a senior correspondent for National Journal Group covering military affairs and national security.S. looking back over the last 60 years. 4.com/articles/2010/02/03/the_end_of_diplomacy?page=full] MGM Back in the day.nationaljournal. America is a good deal weaker. .S. But the Obama administration and its allies have only limited influence on the future course of events on the ground in Egypt. “The End of Diplomacy?”. Lamenting the absence of great men years before his own shining moment. US diplomacy is ineffective – countries will say no and conflicts are escalating now. Arab-Israeli peacemaking -. Diplomatic Capital is irrelevant in a post Mubarak world. wars of choice. but there were moments (1945-1950. Pakistan. nuclear proliferation. Even in areas where diplomacy might seem to work on paper -. In garden spots like Iraq. Aaron David. It's not from the big that the president's problems come. 2-3-2010 [2/3/2010. http://www. or course. In the end. disasters and plenty of dysfunction during these years. administration is handicapping itself with a dysfunctional bureaucratic setup that makes it harder to focus and find its footing. a competent American role in the acceleration and management of the end of the Cold War.under Bill Clinton and George Bush -. though it has had its share of problems with China. the answers to the many questions set off by Mubarak’s departure will have to come from the Egyptians themselves. And it has done pretty well in managing the big relationships with Russia and Europe. 19881991) when the United States marshaled its military. Yemen. however -. The image of the shuttling secretary of state preempting crises or exploiting them to broker agreements. there was a time when American diplomacy did big and important things. And America is unlikely to prevail in any meaningful sense of the word where corrupt. and maybe one part diplomacy. the W. and much of the third and fourth worlds believe. five parts nationbuilding. Winston Churchill wrote that in England.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 115/148 Cross-X. public-policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.S. In the face of terrorism. 5. America never ran the world (an illusion the left. Afghanistan.. right.foreignpolicy.S.

You don't have to be a declinist (I'm not) to see how far the image of American power has fallen.com 116/148 Thursday File power of the small is being matched by the weakening of the big.well before they actually had the numbers on the street. The Internet. Instead. we are asked to compare.and the Egyptian army chose to dispense with Hosni Mubarak last week. There will not be a transition to democracy in Egypt. The mob is now electronically summoned and enhanced. That the existing Egyptian constitution is a defunct. And the United States has departed from the one model that has proven successful: the strong foreign-policy president empowering the strong secretary of state who rides herd over subcabinet-level envoys in real time and in close coordination with the president on strategy. Warren – 2/17 (David Warren. Whether it's an inability to get tough sanctions from the international community against Iran. Yemen. with a cape of promises. multi-party elections.realclearpolitics. the world has gotten used to saying no to America without cost or consequence. or push the Pakistanis to hit the Taliban and al Qaeda in a sustained way.. Staff. yes. But if you don't have the right structure. and so on). 2011. Hezbollah. in Egypt. The latter prefers to raise the banner of Jihad. and made limitations upon democracy fairly plain.dictated by a dictator -. and now. It will not be available within days or weeks. in combination with partisan and sensationalized mass media. one time. to return to where I started. one vote. Finally. and maybe the Obama administration will get lucky. the other the Muslim Brotherhood. Reforms. it makes success all that much harder. And that's very bad for a great power. These latter have already created their parallel welfare and regulatory agencies. and elsewhere. get the Arabs and the Israelis to cooperate. America's currently fighting two wars where the standard for victory is not whether it can win but when it can leave. Algeria. party elections.may be conceded. yes. more money for everyone! You cannot write a constitution in 10 days." Even reduced to "free and fair multi- democracy remains unavailable for the foreseeable future. only because Bush and company dwelt upon the "civil society" aspects. 6. and the actual "supreme guide" of the Muslim Brotherhood (with the infrastructure of the movement entirely behind him). Israel. yes. Most old-world constitutions were written in blood (Canada's was unusual).com/articles/2011/02/17/our_incoherent_response_to_middle_east_ch aos_108923.age 66. nor contribute to the possibilities for mature and intelligent .. or Iran for that matter. the social-media-savvy Moaz Abdel Karim. And there. The former speaks sensitively but vacuously about pluralism in religion and politics. age 29.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X." which the younger generation of Islamists have mastered. revised daily to keep up with the demands. http://www. their protection rackets. for instance. or create genuine opportunities for success abroad. It is trying to play the forces loosed on Cairo streets and elsewhere as a bull. only two "parties" are seriously organized." arguably. Jordan. the alternative is to write them in water. And yet there was one thing to be said for it. and Jews. better marshal American power.html) CJC You cannot argue with a mob -. It corresponded approximately to the reality. and then very tenuously.the choice is between feigned obedience and defiance -. but. The demonstrations were certainly organized through them. The Brotherhood and Military will prevent it either way. which has much of the world wondering about what kind of great power the United States really is. because in Egypt. humourless joke -. It wasn't a Democracy is itself the loudest false promise being casually offered in the Middle East. In the case of Egypt. a new constitution. One would be the civilian military order behind each existing autocracy. The more sophisticated commentators in the West have been drawing contrasts between the older and younger manifestations of Islamism. make North Korea play ball. but it won't last. And al Jazeera leaped in quickly to spread the word and excitement from there. operating through the mosques. . The nation's top diplomat (the secretary of state) seems to be everywhere and nowhere in terms of owning issues and finding a way to take on some of the nastiest challenges. “Democracy and the Mob”. while belabouring three topics: Zionism. Whom should we trust? We have read much about those twittering "social media. in Iraq -. which is what secretaries of state are supposed to do. have rewritten many of the rules. even a kind of judicial and legislative apparatus. about the aspirations of women. bring Tehran to heel. you can. along with everyone else. February 17. with the rhetorically bludgeoning Mohamed Badi -. or Islamist equivalents (Hamas. And the image that comes to mind isn't a terribly kind one: America as a kind of modern-day Gulliver tied up by tiny tribes abroad and hobbled by its inability to organize its own house at home. A new bureaucratic flowchart won't replace skill and luck. the Obama administration has created an empire of envoys with power concentrated in the White House but without real purpose or strategy. It exists only tissue of false promises. But the next several years are more likely to be tough ones for American diplomacy. and neither is parliamentary by disposition. or rather. consciously resisting "one man.after nearly a decade of bloodshed. It's still early. Perhaps the Iranian regime will collapse or the Arabs and Israelis will do something good by themselves. this does not make it any easier to argue with. Forget the economic meltdown. there's the issue of how the country organizes itself. They became possible because social media gave people the sense of strength in numbers -.

***Uniqueness Ans.com 117/148 Thursday File deliberation over the path ahead.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. From anarchy to totalitarianism is one Persian step.*** . It instead creates a new and much broader field for anarchy.

html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS %3A+Politics%29) CJC the U.S. has less leverage in the region than ever before. CNN Staff. supported by Syria and Iran. and its allies that it will remain defiant on its nuclear program in the face of tough sanctions. http://www. In Yemen.cnn. a strongman president has been ejected. ***Link Level*** . anti-terror efforts in the country that harbors an active and threatening subset of al Qaeda.S.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – N/U: Dip Cap Low US diplomatic capital is at an all-time low.S. At talks last month in Istanbul.S. CNN – 2/2 (Elise Labott and Josh Levs. 2011. Lebanon is in the throes of a dangerous game of brinksmanship that threatens to send the country back into civil war after Hezbollah. but he was also key to U. Turkey. Iran showed the U.us. February 2. We don’t have the influence to do anything in the region.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 118/148 Cross-X. “The Sweep: The risk of democracy in the Middle East”.egypt/index.com/2011/POLITICS/02/02/sweep. Today. brought down the U.-backed government of Prime Minister Saad Hariri and installed billionaire businessman Najib Mikati as its choice for the job.

Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 119/148

Cross-X.com Thursday File

Iraq Aff – Link Turn
Withdrawing from Iraq saves diplomatic capital – shifts focus elsewhere while Iraq takes the lead. Scowcroft, 5-13-2010 [Brett, former US National Security Advisor, 2010 GLOBAL SECURITY FORUM, http://csis.org/files/attachments/100513_middleeast_panel_transcript.pdf]
Q: Chet Crocker, Georgetown University. A couple of 20,000-foot questions for a retired Air Force general and a screenplay writer. (Laughter.) Brent, you mentioned the phrase, “a nurturing presence,” and I wonder what kind of post-Iraq war, postAfghan war military footprint you see in that part of the world, and what role for our diplomacy? Are we going to be the lead actor on all the issues that we’ve been touching on – Israel-Palestine, India-Pakistan, and of course, Gulf security architecture, which David mentioned? So are we going to be the lead diplomatic presence and the lead

military presence in this region? And should this region continue to occupy 80 percent of our political and diplomatic capital around the world? Thank you. LT. GEN. SCOWCROFT: Chet, I think you’re the best one to answer that question. I would hope that we would back down a little bit from leadership in the region to, if you will, nurturing and cooperation and encouragement for the region to get itself together and to move in unison. It’s fundamentally a rich region. Iraq, for example, has huge natural resources. The right kind of encouragement could do a lot to turn Iraqi-Iranian relationship to one, at least, of toleration. I think Jordan is another problem, which is, in part, a regional problem. Aside from the issues of the East Bank, and so on, there are close to a million Iraqi refugees in Jordan. This is a terrible burden for a state without the natural resources that some of the others have. I think we can use our ability to organize and guide in a way which encourages the best instincts of the region without saying, we’ve dealt with these military problems; now we’re going to set the region
straight, because I don’t think we’re able to do that.

Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 120/148

Cross-X.com Thursday File

Afghanistan Aff – Link Turn
Afghanistan presence devastates dip cap. South China Morning Post, 2009 [Greg Torode, 12-3, "Will Obama's Afghan strategy play into China's hands?", Lexis] Obama's Afghan strategy - 100,000 troops and a withdrawal beginning in July 2011 - will demand costly intangibles and some are wondering whether it is here, in East Asia, that Washington will end up paying that bill. Quagmire in Afghanistan could further play into the hands of an emerging China that is fast
US President Barack challenging the strategic assumptions that have governed East Asia for decades. Even if the dramatic escalation of 30,000 extra troops goes smoothly, the military, political and diplomatic capital expended will be considerable. And it is

being spent by a fresh, young hopeful, but an exhausted warrior trying to restore his reserves of blood and treasure after two conflicts, and the worst economic crisis in a generation. Will Afghanistan divert Washington's attention from the more subtle but vital task of dealing with the rise of China and balancing ties across East Asia, where, for decades, it has been the primary military power? Will it divert the energies of US institutions just as they are supposed to be engaging China on an ever-broadening range of issues, from the
not environment and water management to freedom of navigation? Then there are the worst case scenarios. Would Afghanistan commitments mean the US could not respond fully to a military crisis in the region, say a conflict over Taiwan or the Korean peninsula? Afghanistan, after all, is now Obama's war. These are the questions being asked across

the region just weeks after Obama staged his first visit to set the tone for what he hopes will be eight years of complex engagement - deepening ties with China while boosting existing alliances and reaching
to out to new friends. No one is pretending China would create that crisis but some believe Beijing would quietly seek to exploit any perceived vacuum. Dr Ian Storey, a scholar at Singapore's Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, said a sense that the US risked bogging itself down in Afghanistan could embolden Beijing. "On a strategic level, it might reinforce China's perceptions that the US is a declining power," he said. "And I think that, in turn, could make Beijing more assertive in the region. We might see China being more confident about pushing the theme of a new multipolar world like they tried in the 1990s, a world where the US is more of a 'normal' power." Already, US military officials describe more frequent encounters with Chinese warships across the region, a presence expected to grow. On the diplomatic front, US diplomats and their regional allies find their Beijing counterparts increasingly assertive. While Afghanistan might force Washington to draw away from the Pacific theatre - its biggest presence - its important naval engagement with the region was unlikely to diminish, Storey said. "We can see the US is exhausted," one veteran Japanese envoy said privately. "Taking on fresh burdens in Afghanistan leaves us wondering about the response in a crisis. With the best will, it would be a great challenge ... they are already stretched." Professor Shi Yinghong, director of the Centre for American Studies at Renmin University, said China would now pay closer attention to developments in Afghanistan. Although China would avoid publicly commenting on Obama's Afghan decision, Shi said Beijing would be concerned no matter whether America won or lost the war. "It will be a very distant concern. Beijing will be more immediately concerned if the US loses the war, in this case, its ally Pakistan will be affected, and security in the region will be undermined," he said. "If the war is won, then Beijing will be uncomfortable to have so many US soldiers near its border." In practical terms, Beijing has appeared content to stand on the sidelines through the war to date. Repeated US requests to exploit bases on the Chinese side of the border for refuelling missions have been refused. More recently, US officials have requested an opening of the small but strategic Sino-Afghan border to allow troops and supplies to be ferried down the mountainous Wakhan Corridor. The issue was raised during Obama's recent mission to Beijing but has yet to be approved. No offers of hard military support is expected any time soon. Most analysts believe China is unlikely to want to be involved in a war led by US-dominated Nato forces rather than the UN. But some in the region believe Obama will not be easily diverted. Professor Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University, said Obama had made considerable gains in Southeast Asia compared with his predecessor. He has entrenched ties with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and has taken the risk of engaging Myanmar's junta. "Despite all the challenges he will face in Afghanistan, I think the track in this part of the world is set ... his administration has done more in a year than Bush did in eight years," he said. "We fully expect that will continue."

Investment in Afghan war is wasting Obama’s diplomatic capital – aff frees it up. Carpenter, 6-27-2010 [Dan, Writer and columnist for the IndyStar, “No credit for taking charge,” http://www.indystar.com/article/20100627/OPINION05/6270333/1039/OPINION05/No-credit-fortaking-charge]
Like Lincoln, President Barack

Obama

has found it necessary to change generals in the middle of a war. Unlike Lincoln, this

president seems unlikely to defeat the South. With Afghanistan, his chances of victory are roughly equal to Lincoln's, assuming that victory means a secure, friendly populace under the firm control of a government established under the auspices of the U.S. military. Even a gunboat diplomacy buff like George Will sees no hope or necessity for the Afghanistan expedition. Liberals are left pretty much in a quagmire, suffering through another political oil

splash on their man without reason to believe his handling of this affront has any bearing on the alleged business at hand. "Success" in Afghanistan is as remote to the vast majority of

Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.com 121/148 Thursday File Americans (those without loved ones there) as Afghanistan itself. To the extent they discuss the
commander in chief as they stand in line for their iPhones, they talk in terms of his domestic war, the bone-deep conflict between a Northern urbanite and a devout resistance dominated by the South and Southwest. Recognizing the potency of right-wing sentiment, and the inconstancy of the so-called Blue Dog Democrats, Obama long ago adopted a strategy of cooptation. Assure the other side you share their narrowly defined basic values of patriotism and morality and middle-class preeminence, and hope they'll drop their guard against your more imaginative agenda. Because nobody dares run for president as an

antiwar candidate, Obama chose to label Iraq as the wrong war, leaving Afghanistan as the right war and obligating himself to prosecute that waste of lives, money and diplomatic capital. He played into the mass fantasy that global upheaval can be reduced to the mischief of a few terrorist bands. He threw in the bonus of a sort-of deadline for bringing the troops home. None of it has pleased North or South on this side of the proverbial water's edge. It
couldn't even spare him a bizarre cross-cultural kneecapping by his top general in, of all places, Rolling Stone magazine. Hardly a match for Lincoln's dark nights of the soul, I guess; but our much-maligned 16th president surely died with confidence that historians would vindicate him. He waged a terrible war that ended insurrection, ended slavery -- and ended. No American

war has taken longer to reach its end than the current one that Barack Obama purported to welcome. Its end is not in sight, and the absence of evil that it would bring about is something our visionary leader is unable to picture for us. Lincoln's eloquence about bereaved military families who "have
laid so costly a sacrifice upon the altar of freedom" can hardly be appropriated for a disjointed and deadly security operation for a corrupt and ineffectual foreign regime. The battle, then, is to save face on the home front. To show who is in command. It has to be an ill-fitting role for a man who sought to dial down his predecessor's emphasis on the military and offer an open hand to the non-Western world. Playing it is the price he has had to pay to be president. He can go ahead and break a leg, as they say in show business; but he'll hear little applause from South, North, or, when it comes to his chosen war, posterity.

” and I wonder what kind of post-Iraq war. SCOWCROFT: Chet.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 122/148 Cross-X. http://csis. in part.pdf] Q: Chet Crocker. India-Pakistan. “a nurturing presence. I would hope that we would back down a little bit from leadership in the region to. we’ve dealt with these military problems. which is. 5-13-2010 [Brett. LT. a regional problem.000-foot questions for a retired Air Force general and a screenplay writer. . and of course. which David mentioned? So are we going to be the lead diplomatic presence and the lead military presence in this region? And should this region continue to occupy 80 percent of our political and diplomatic capital around the world? Thank you. and what role for our diplomacy? Are we going to be the lead actor on all the issues that we’ve been touching on – Israel-Palestine. former US National Security Advisor. It’s fundamentally a rich region. Iraq. I think Jordan is another problem. (Laughter. of toleration. I think we can use our ability to organize and guide in a way which encourages the best instincts of the region without saying.) Brent. if you will. Gulf security architecture. at least. and so on. has huge natural resources.com Thursday File Iraq Aff – Link Turn Withdrawing from Iraq saves diplomatic capital – shifts focus elsewhere while Iraq takes the lead. nurturing and cooperation and encouragement for the region to get itself together and to move in unison. because I don’t think we’re able to do that.org/files/attachments/100513_middleeast_panel_transcript. Aside from the issues of the East Bank. A couple of 20. for example. 2010 GLOBAL SECURITY FORUM. you mentioned the phrase. there are close to a million Iraqi refugees in Jordan. The right kind of encouragement could do a lot to turn Iraqi-Iranian relationship to one. Scowcroft. postAfghan war military footprint you see in that part of the world. This is a terrible burden for a state without the natural resources that some of the others have. now we’re going to set the region straight. I think you’re the best one to answer that question. Georgetown University. GEN.

. Rev. privileges. the more likely it is that United States diplomatic endeavors will be thwarted and its international reputation tarnished. allowing us to pursue diplomatic endeavor Gher. issues of . rights. and immunities.S.S. status. The United States has a long history of "sending . “Status of Forces Agreements: Tools to Further Effective Foreign Policy and Lessons To Be Learned from the United States-Japan Agreement”. Lexis] MGM a local assembly on Okinawa. 37 U. JD graduate at University of San Francisco School of Law. [troops] abroad to further [its] national security and foreign policy objectives[. which] has profound implications under United States and international law and raises . L. the site of America's largest military base in Japan. Fall. demanded the "withdrawal of all U..Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 123/148 Cross-X.. 227. scheme: the Status of Forces Agreement ("SOFA"). 2002 [Jaime." n18 As the global community becomes more aware of Japanese dissatisfaction.com Thursday File Japan Aff – Link Turn Withdrawing from Okinawa ends criticism of the US.. University of San Francisco Law Review.." n19 This Comment focuses on an instrument essential to America's military placement On February 16.F.. Marines on the island and the resignation of their commander.. 2001.

lexis-nexis. 115 Professor Joseph Nye describes the above phenomenon as "soft power": "Soft power is the ability to get what you want through attraction rather than coercion or payments. The Vanderbilt Journal of Transnational Law. such as those present in gender policy. 114 Credibility in one human [*749] rights arena (e.g. Lawyer and writer in the Vanderbilt Law School Journal of Transnational Law**. May 2010.translate into success for U.S. ***Internal Answers*** .S.in much the same way a President spends political capital to achieve policy objectives on Capitol Hill .Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 124/148 Cross-X.S. child labor). In this way. 120 In particular. moral ethos would dissipate. http://web. attitudes of distrust tend to fester and further reduce our leverage." 116 Nye argues that "when American policies lose their legitimacy and credibility in the eyes of others. all of the damage currently spanning the U. which can . 118 Areas of legal and moral contradiction. diplomatic capital. gender legislation advances U. image as a champion of gender equality as well as signaling that Congress takes its responsibility for fulfilling international human rights obligations seriously. gender equality) often serves to enhance credibility in an unrelated human rights arena (e.S. Such a change would significantly increase diplomatic capital. Certainly.com Thursday File Link – Link Turn – South Korea K Aff Link Turn: US focus should shift from military power and towards gender policy." and reclaiming legitimacy by addressing domestic gender-motivated violence as a human rights issue can communicate this cultural value.com/scholastic/document?_m =235f2b6f28fe5116dc52324e38ebfe4c&_docnum=1&wchp=dGLzVlzzSkVk&_md5=bcef5cca117ffa071d3621 bd40b67ba6) Congressional activism on gender policy provides an avenue for shifting the image of the U. create the loss of the legitimacy and credibility necessary to build soft power. credibility on gender equality issues.S soft power interests. LexisNexis. “Congress’s Attempted Response to the World’s Demand for the Violence Against Women Act”.S. from one of military hard power to a moral and diplomatic leader. 119 Readers should be cautious not to overestimate the value of U." 117 "Problems arise for our soft power when we do not live up to our own standards.S.g. "soft power grows out of our culture." including international standards to which the United States committed. this Note does not mean to suggest that if Congress passes legislation that addresses gender problems in America. out of our domestic values and policies. Culpepper 2010 (Brenton. 113 This shift increases U. foreign policy goals. Congressional legislation serves the dual purpose of restoring the U. However.

2011. http://www. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. “I think the military has looked after its own interests as the high command sees them.” said Paul Sullivan.” said Robert Springborg. “They are just not the types to want to do that.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military. a professor of economics at the National Defense University in Washington. Feb 13. Springborg said he doesn’t think the U. has had much influence over the decisions of the Egyptian military during the turmoil in Cairo and other major cities.bloomberg. a professor of political economy of the Middle East at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. The Egyptian military isn’t likely to get too involved in details of constitutional changes or get so comfortable that they would want to hang on to power. “Public Praise.” he said. Bannerman and others said.html) CJC The standards taught “include a role for civilian influence over decision-making. California.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 125/148 Cross-X. reporter for Bloomberg News.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt: No Influence US does not have influence over Egyptian military. “Also the people of Egypt would likely not accept it.” .S.

html) CJC The Egyptian military sees the aid it receives every year from the U.” .com Thursday File Aff – Egypt: Aid =/= Influence Aid does not influence Egyptian military. “Public Praise. analysts said. Gates and Mullen aren’t likely to press too hard.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military.S. Feb 13. they see it as compensation for the Peace Accords with Israel.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 126/148 Cross-X. receives. “They’re smart enough to know that’s not how to get them to do it. as recompense for its 1979 peace agreement with Israel and for basing and access that the U. he said.” Bannerman said. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. 2011. “They see the aid as a partnership. http://www. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. reporter for Bloomberg News.S.bloomberg. As a result.

W. 2011.us.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – No Influence U.com/article/SB10001424052748703960804576120064121963244. who . FEBRUARY 3. Staff Writers. “Egyptian Crisis Biggest Foreign Test Yet for Obama Administration”." US is reactionary. http://www. http://www. In fact. In his brief Tuesday evening remarks. is a 'spectator' Despite its financial sway.com/articles/2011/02/02/egypts_future_will_be_decided_by_the_milit ary. February 2.com/2011/POLITICS/02/02/sweep.” By that remark. This loss of influence is apparently misunderstood or.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS %3A+Politics%29) CJC Although it came into office hoping to seduce the region rather than fight it." he said. which has been solidly pro-American since the advent of King Abdullah's reign. and it must begin now.com/2011/01/31/egyptian-crisis-biggest-foreign-test-yet-for-obamaadministratio/) CJC U. said. http://www. US does not have influence over the Middle East." and "In the Words of Our Enemies. US has zero influence over the outcome in Egypt. America has lost the ability to influence the shape of post-Mubarak Egypt and it faces growing crises in another moderate Arab state. President Obama did a good job of pretending that we have significant influence on the events in Egypt which will determine who rules in Mubarak's place. But he did say one thing that will influence events there: that transition in Egypt "must be meaningful. Jordan. He is the author of several bestselling books including "Inside the Asylum.egypt/index.unless the Egyptian armed forces choose to intervene may tilt Egypt into the radical Islamist sphere now dominated by Iran. CNN Staff. Neither will the choice of his successor. Babbin – 2/2 (Jed Babbin served as a Deputy Undersecretary of Defense under George H. “The Sweep: The risk of democracy in the Middle East”. to borrow a malapropism from a former president." Ottaway said. . February 2. 2011. Political Analyst for Politics Daily. White House Chief of Staff William Daley.html) CJC Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's Tuesday promise to not run for reelection does not mean his government will survive through the scheduled September contest. Wall Street Journal – 2/3 (JONATHAN WEISMAN And ADAM ENTOUS. DC or the New York Times' editorial boardroom. they know the outcome is out of their control. “White House Charts a New Plan”. http://online. Bush. CNN – 2/2 (Elise Labott and Josh Levs. 1/31/2011.politicsdaily. misunderestimated by the Obama administration and its media surrogates. it must be peaceful. "It's important to keep in mind that the United States is not going to change the course of events in Egypt or anywhere else.".wsj.html? mod=rss_Politics_And_Policy) CJC How the administration overcomes Mr. "A lot of this is totally out of our control. "The United States is really a spectator to a phenomenon that has taken on a life of its own. not only to show progress on solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict but to encourage democratic reform. has zero influence over what happens on the ground in Egypt. Stone – 1/31 (Andrea Stone.S. These dashed expectations Obama has created in the region are not just disappointing. meeting with journalists Wednesday.cnn. Change in the region comes not from his encouragement but from the disaffected taking matters into their own hands. “Egypt's Future Will Be Decided by the Military”. 2011. he threw our lot with the demonstrators who seek Mubarak's immediate removal and made Mubarak's time to organize any transition even more limited than they were before.S. the Obama administration has not delivered on the tantalizing promises it made since taking over.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 127/148 Cross-X. Mubarak and moves to an interim government is not clear.realclearpolitics." Much of the White House response has been "reacting to the circumstances on the street and the knowledge we obtain. Whether his regime falls now or leaves of its own accord later will not be decided in Washington.

This troubled region has always looked to the U. countries like Turkey and Qatar. .com 128/148 Thursday File they have hurt U. whose interests don't always align with Washington's.S. credibility in the region and have had diplomats and Middle East experts scratching their heads about just what Obama's vision for the region is. are taking the lead.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. Now. to help in times of crisis.S.

That is the most likely scenario if radical Islamic influence . But what if. In 1973 they even expelled the Soviets from Egypt. Though the enlisted men in Egyptian forces are very poorly paid . a more radical government rises in its place? Another senior American military source opined that the Egyptian military would not permit a radical Islamic regime like the Tehran Ayatollahs from taking control.they are loyal to their officers. He is the author of several bestselling books including "Inside the Asylum. the officers and men have some prestige in Egyptian society which they wish to maintain. We cannot expect that the Egyptian army will have become a democratic force as a result of our deep connections with it.html) CJC As one very senior retired Israeli officer told me. ***A2: Counterterrorism*** ***Impact Ans.*** . http://www. But that does not mean it will remain on the sidelines indefinitely. That source emphasized that the Egyptian army's deep rooted culture and mentality will prevail. Babbin – 2/2 (Jed Babbin served as a Deputy Undersecretary of Defense under George H.W. at least up to a point. Though they aren't well-trained by US standards because they have little funding to train. But they will resist a radical regime. the Egyptian military proclaimed it would not use violence against the Cairo demonstrators.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – No Influence: Military US does not have influence over the military. the Egyptian army didn't become communist when it was heavily equipped (rather more than it needed) by the Soviet Union. A senior American military source who trained with Egyptian forces for years echoed those thoughts and added this: the Egyptian army's officer corps is loyal to Mubarak." and "In the Words of Our Enemies. They can be baought by radical forces. “Egypt's Future Will Be Decided by the Military”.again reflecting Egypt's weak economy and consistent failure to spend enough to create and train effective forces .from inside Egypt and emanating from Iran and Syria .". when Mubarak falls. On Monday. But given Egypt's culture and its military's low-paid status. 2011. it's entirely possible that a new Islamist regime could purchase the military's loyalty.manage to tip the balance their way.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 129/148 Cross-X.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/02/02/egypts_future_will_be_decided_by_the_milit ary. February 2. Bush.

They note the country has every interest in combating terrorism. "maybe Egypt won't be producing terrorists" like Ayman al-Zawahiri. ***A2: Spillover/Instability*** .S. Grenier predicted the relationship would continue even if the Muslim Brotherhood controlled the next government. Washington Post – 2/13 (Mary Beth Sheridan and Joby Warrick." said J. Turkey could fill the intelligence void." said the former CIA official. February 13. "The developments in Egypt are actually devastating to al-Qaeda. now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Al-Qaeda opposes the kind of democracy that millions of Egyptians called for in the 18 days of mass demonstrations that led to Mubarak's toppling. has good counterterrorism cooperation with governments of countries like Turkey.com Thursday File A2: Counterterrorism Impacts No risk of collapsing counterterrorism operations. 2 figure in al-Qaeda. the moderates are the first to go.html?hpid=topnews) CJC officials. Washington Post Staff Writers." Indeed. If anything.washingtonpost.-Egyptian counterterrorism work”.S. argue that Egypt is likely to continue much of its cooperation. Turn: Egypt democracy regardless of the outcomes undercut Al-Qaeda." a democratic Muslim nation. They know that. she said. if Some former the future Egyptian government is less repressive. Only last month. at least in the short run. C. another former State Department Middle East expert. now chairman of ERG Partners. Scott Carpenter. 2011. an Egyptian who is the No. "The idea we can't do business with countries responsive to their citizens is a false one. http://www. Michele Dunne.com/wpdyn/content/article/2011/02/12/AR2011021203581. Egypt will continue its cooperation even with Muslim Brotherhood in power. Many counterterrorism officials and Middle East experts are skeptical that al-Qaeda will benefit from Egypt's political upheaval. Al-Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood have been foes for decades. however. having suffered years of assassinations and other attacks by extremist Muslim groups. 3 warrants: A. agreed that the new Egyptian government will be much more sensitive to public opinion than Mubarak's regime. a consulting firm. and polls show that Egyptians overwhelmingly reject the group's brutal methods and rigid ideology. said Dunne. a Middle East expert with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Mubarak resignation throws into question U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 130/148 Cross-X. "But the U. 21 people died in a carbomb attack on a Coptic Christian church in Alexandria. the Brotherhood "understands the extremists better than anyone else. B. in revolutionary situations.

“Egypt unrest threatens to spread”. both on its own right and when viewed in the regional context. though he added that “Jordan is different from Tunisia and Egypt. Ali Abdullah Saleh is presiding over terrible poverty and an unemployment rate that the CIA says runs as high as 35 percent.first. 2011. Leaders throughout the Middle East are pushing reforms quickly to prevent uprisings. which must increase popular participation in the decision making. pushed for reforms. The Jordanian monarchy is still widely viewed as stable in spite of a large and restive population of Palestinian refugees and observers who said it is unclear whether the shake-up — unlike Mubarak’s new government in Egypt — represents a move toward real change.” said a U. but as soon as the Jordanian political establishment raised alarms. “Remember in 2003 to 2005. January 31. he hopes to ensure that they do not demand anything more.and that remained a one-off event for three decades. Politico – 2/1 (Ben Smith and Laura Rozen. the last one to occur in the region had been the Iranian revolution -. government is that the turmoil in Egypt is likely containable politically -. “Egypt has not been center of gravity in the Middle East for a very long time. It is quite possible that the rapid toppling of two long-entrenched Arab dictators -. http://www.” said Barbara Bodine. “Containing Egypt: If Mubarak Goes. that the move could trigger real change. In Jordan. while Egypt was once seen as the aristocracy of the Arab world -. and by doing so.com/nationalsecurity/some-u-s-experts-argue-yes--20110131) CJC That’s the only certainty now as well -.html) CJC Jordan’s King Abdullah II named a new prime minister. who is of Jordanian descent and serves as advocacy director for the American Task Force on Palestine.com Thursday File Aff – No Egypt Spillover Egypt uprisings will not spillover into instability in the Middle East. The spillover or domino effect tends to be less than people fear it will. where the unemployment rate is 13. Still." Bodine said. The Iraqis were holding elections.” said Ghaith al-Omari. “King Abdullah of Jordan and the Gulf Arab leaders have the ability to adapt.that it sends reverberations throughout the region but without a wave of revolution to follow. when people were predicting another Arab spring.” said Muasher.” Abdullah’s statement also called for an “immediate revision” of the laws governing politics and public freedom. Marouf al-Bakhit. http://www.” But that still is a long way from revolution. Egypt’s government is uniquely despised for precisely the reason that it has been so stagnant in its policies. Tunisia’s Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. late Tuesday and ordered him to “undertake quick and tangible steps for real political reforms.” There is no risk of spreading instability. The king described economic reform as a “necessity to provide a better life for our people.S. Political Reporters for Poiltico. “So. in terms of money. not least of which is a leader who turns and flees. Hirsh – 1/31 ( Michael Hirsh is chief correspondent for National Journal.8 percent) there than in Egypt. 2011.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 131/148 Cross-X. not that things were going badly. the former ambassador to Yemen and a longtime specialist in Near East affairs. Former Jordanian Foreign Minister Marwan Muasher said.the country that others looked to -. “I don’t see it as a brush fire spreading across the Middle East. but we won’t be able to attain that without real political reforms.” according to a statement.nationaljournal. ambassador to Israel and current director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution. “What you had was this gerontocracy sitting on top of an ossified bureaucracy. the arts.no one really knows. who is now vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. however. And Abdullah has. namely.7 percent (according to CIA estimates). former U. Hirsh previously served as the senior editor and national economics correspondent for Newsweek. February 1. “What we see is the king realizing that this is a serious public movement. official involved in analyzing the Arab world. the king has a template — the .” Indeed.could spread quickly to other regimes.politico.com/news/stories/0211/48649. but unemployment is higher (10.its time of influence has passed. but it is going to have an impact across the Middle East. there’s no fear of the system collapsing in any way. until Tunisia. which reflect our vision for comprehensive modernization and development in Jordan. "I think what you’re watching is this utter frustration. King Abdullah is also running a police state that brooks no dissent. as Ben Ali did to the surprise of many experts.4 percent compared to Egypt’s 9. more than Mubarak. but they weren’t going at all. the media. the betting among some of the more sober-minded analysts of Arab and Middle East politics inside and outside the U. Does the Revolution Stop There?”. So were the Palestinians.” Beyond that. “It has been a game-changer in how people see their governments and their ability to change them. especially since economic discontent seems a central motivation. There were a lot of predictions that got way ahead of where the facts were. In Yemen. After all. then possibly Mubarak -. “the king backed away from it. in terms of education.S.” said Martin Indyk." Bodine added. Saudi Arabia is ostensibly rich and under rigid control. a change of government. Overturning a government requires that a whole array of unusual circumstances align at once. “The aristocracy is often the last to know their time is over. and so he gave the protesters what they were asking for. “It’s a serious wake-up call that reform can’t wait any longer.S.” Muasher developed a political reform plan five years ago.

allheadlinenews. Across the region. 2011. head of strategic studies at the Sheba Center for Strategic Studies (SCSS). whose small populations and immense wealth have typically allowed the regimes to defuse political protest — responded visibly.S. reportedly executing a record number of prisoners in January.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 132/148 Cross-X. However." Aish Ali Awwas. He said that new media made it more difficult for regimes to use hard force. One day after the protests broke out in Egypt. King Hussein of Jordan sent tanks into Palestinian refugee camps to quash an armed insurrection. Maddy-Weitzman. a Yemeni think-tank. taking both concrete and symbolic steps. sink or swim? If we do not implement this political reform program now. In 1982 iron-fisted Syrian forces leveled the city of Hama as President Hafez Al-Assad ruthlessly crushed a Sunni Islamic revolt. a senior Middle East researcher at the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel-Aviv University.” said Human Rights Watch Washington Director Tom Malinowski. In Iran. In both events. ***A2: Iran Reform*** . President Ali Abdullah — who last week raised the salaries of government employees and soldiers — announced expanded payments to thousands of poor families and eliminated tuition for students at state universities. There will be no spill over from Egypt creating instability. he added. "The era of tanks and security control is over. Kuwait’s government announced payments of more than $3. President Mahmoud Abbas canceled the elections in 2009 for fear that his Fatah party would lose seats. government’s rhetoric about human rights and democracy might actually mean something. after what happened in Tunisia and Egypt. the Western-backed authority said it would move swiftly to hold local elections." During the 1970s and 1980s Arab rulers used massive force without hesitation to quell local opposition. depriving Arab Bruce countries of their traditional monopoly over the flow of information." Awwas said that President Saleh's announcement was more likely an attempt to quell opposition rage than a sincere declaration he would step down. leaders appear to be altering their tactics. the Yemeni president on Wednesday announced he would not stand for another term. quickly giving in to the demands of change from their people. trying to avert the mistakes made by their Egyptian and Tunisian counterparts. In September 1970. http://www. including one Dutch national who participated in European protests. Miller – 2/2 (David E. the government — which is publicly cheering Egyptian protesters — is also flexing its muscle. as opposed to representing a set of meaningless talking points they can ignore. where protesters have clashed with police. abandoning plans to change the constitution enabling him to rule for life. Miller. thousands of civilians lost their lives. because there will be no backlash from other governments." Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh told his country’s parliament. February 2. Even seemingly stable regimes — notably American allies like Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.com/articles/7022549122) CJC The use of crushing military force to put down popular uprisings has lost its punch in the Arab Middle East. "The important thing is he will not be able to bequeath the Presidency to his son. said that Arab leaders were now opting for a proactive approach. such as by the Iranian regime of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that crushed the popular opposition riots following the elections last year. Dr. we will all go down together." Awwas said. ahead of a "Day of Rage" scheduled for Thursday by civil society groups.500 to its subjects to subsidize the cost of food. The new era will be one of peaceful activities. "Everyone now is focused on the day after Saleh. more violence is sometimes used. "They’re trying to defuse the atmosphere and recalibrate. “Times are changing use of force in Arab world”. Reporter. but only reforms in the election system and a tougher government approach to corruption. Saleh's 32-year presidency will expire in 2013.’” What is clear is that the turmoil in Tunisia and Egypt has roiled the region with an intensity not seen since the 1970s. ‘Gentlemen. told The Media Line. In the Palestinian city Ramallah. “They’re dumbfounded by the notion that the U. "I will not extend my mandate and I am against hereditary rule. and after King Abdullah of Jordan sacked Prime Minister Samir Rifai and his cabinet. Today. The opposition did not demand Saleh's resignation either. "What happened in Tunisia and Egypt has an impact on other Arab states.com Thursday File Muasher plan. The question is whether he will now have the basis to go to the East Bank establishment and say. Less than 24 hours after Egyptian president Husni Mubarak announced he would neither run again for office nor nominate his son Gamal. governments have visibly responded to the fear of spreading turmoil: In Yemen." Maddy-Weitzman told The Media Line. And the evident American and European willingness to watch Mubarak fall may have prompted autocrats to re-evalute their own relationships.

S. Iran natunest. This Iranian narrative. support — little of which trickles down to their citizens. It largely ignored.S. Many of the green movement’s demands still resonate with Iranians — some even. the green movement’s large number of demonstrators gave the impression that the entire country was unified behind one goal. interests. Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. evidently.S. coddled and encouraged by Washington and who acted against the wishes of their citizens. Iranian exiles and many Western analysts have declared the country an unredeemable dictatorship. If there is any secret desire among U. http://dyn.” Certainly there may be Iranians who are envious of the ease with which the Arabs dispatched their leader. as the 2009 post-election crisis is described. and Iran’s youth are. an Iranian-American writer. But again. “Iran won't take cues from Egypt”. January 31. citizens see politics as usual: continuing disputes.The media. apart from the severity of the government’s crackdown.S. however. much like Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak. In the West. those hopes will most likely be dashed. that turned out to be an illusion.cfm?uuid=D87B8D53-EA90-B6B4-DB70DE791553C0EC) CJC There has been a temptation in the West to tie the convulsions in Tunisia. Facile comparisons aside. The West’s view that Iran has an overwhelmingly unpopular dictatorship and that the green movement sought to overthrow the political system is fundamentally wrong. however. indeed. “Tunis envy. the extent of support that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did have — which even green movement leaders estimated to be in the millions. sanctions. however. is the author of “The Ayatollahs’ Democracy: An Iranian Challenge”. But it is indisputable that the popular opinion of Arab states runs contrary to what we ordinarily call “U. of democratic movements. foreign policy — in the region. much like the Cedar Revolution.” meaning Tunisia could. is in line with the government’s. the government has not shied away from gleefully reporting the Arab uprisings. 2011.S. In the almost two years since. is that the government has been successful in portraying itself — at least to moderate supporters — as being aligned with Western interests. That is not to say that there is no discontent or that the green movement — more a civil rights movement than the revolution that many in the West had hoped for — is completely irrelevant. Arab countries have also had dictators who were supported.politico. politically or even religiously. Those large demonstrations are being cited as the sparks that ignited the imagination of all who live under repressive regimes in the Middle East.S. But Iran has been free of foreign influence — even if its citizens haven’t always agreed with the government’s policies. which affect ordinary citizens’ quality of life. interests. far greater. they are made with the Islamic Revolution of 1979. officials that Iran’s opposition green movement will now be motivated by what it inspired and rise up again to overthrow the Islamic system.” It is not so different in Iran — except that popular opinion on U. That’s not to say that the anti-Americanism displayed by Iranians is anything but anti-imperialism. Arab protesters could have only dreamed about what Iran has achieved politically in the past 30-plus years. Rather. But Iran’s green movement had more in common with the Lebanese Cedar Revolution of 2005 than with the 2011 uprising in North Africa. Both before and after the contested 2009 election. more than a century. until now. But. hegemony as much as they are against dictatorship. Iran has been more politically analogous to the red state. In Tehran. Iran couldn’t or. Egypt and elsewhere in the Arab world to Iran’s 2009 green movement protests. and is unlikely to reappear anytime soon. or sedition. is far closer to the truth. Unlike Arabs. while Arab countries are key strategic allies and their governments receive billions of dollars in U. The Iranian media covered both extensively. there is not enough support against Iranian leadership.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 133/148 Cross-X.S. had focused on protesters and demonstrators in 2009 and on the government’s heavy crackdown. the most pro-American — but not pro-U. Majd – 1/31 (Hooman Majd. and is. blue state dynamic in the United States than to the one-man rule of many Arab states. But within Iran. which swept the shah off the Peacock Throne and into ignominious exile. better yet. Persians are not Arabs and have little in common with them culturally. But there was little indication that Iran’s youth were readying themselves for another challenge to authority. Support for the supreme leader and the Islamic system was. Iran has been subjected to U. was a lifetime dictator closely allied with Washington. It may be a stretch for the Iranian government to proclaim that Arab protesters are revolting against U. Iranians have a long history. As with the Lebanese protests. famously. challenges and debate among the three branches of government — with Ahmadinejad not always coming out on top. with Ahmadinejad and his government. Iranian supporters of the green movement were quick to disseminate catchy slogans: “Tunes tunest. I was in Tehran when the Tunisian president fled his country and after the Hezbollah-engineered collapse of the Lebanese government. But analogies are made not with the fetneh. meanwhile.com Thursday File Aff – No Iran Reform There will be no Iranian overthrow of government sparked from the Egyptian protests. One reason the green movement lost steam in Iran.com/printstory. But major change in Iran is unlikely to come . at least among the majority of Iranians. Their struggle since the fall of the shah for representative government has not depended on the removal of one man or one family.

Not while the whole country. isn’t united in hatred of its leaders. ***A2: Muslim Brotherhood Bad*** .com 134/148 Thursday File about through street protests — which is why no one calls for them anymore.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. unlike in the Arab states.

. http://www.S.. a former ambassador to Israel who is vice president for foreign policy at the nonprofit Brookings Institution in Washington.html) CJC Other U. and saying basically they don’t want to take over. reporter for Bloomberg News. 2011. an opposition group accused of terrorist ties.” Martin Indyk.bloomberg.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 135/148 Cross-X. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. “I don’t think the military are going to let the Muslim Brotherhood take over and the Muslim Brotherhood know that and they’re keeping their heads down. said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” yesterday. lawmakers have raised concerns that the Muslim Brotherhood.C. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. Feb 13.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – No I/L: Muslim Brotherhood Muslim Brotherhood will not rise to control the government. “Public Praise.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military. might seize control of the country. D. they don’t want power and the military would NEVER allow it.

“Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood plans political party”.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – Brotherhood Won’t Run No Internal link – Muslim Brotherhood will not run for election. . But he said the Brotherhood's top leadership had decided on the creation of a party. in my opinion we need a national consensus. http://www." spokesman Mohammed Mursi said in a statement on the Brotherhood website. They are eager to have a political party. a prominent Brotherhood figures. 14. This guts their extremist internal which are critical to their impact story.html#storylink=mirelated) CJC The Brotherhood announced Tuesday that it would form a party once promised freer laws are in place. 2011. Feb.com/2011/02/14/1981307/egypts-us-envoy-says-mubarakmay.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 136/148 Cross-X. its time for unity. acknowledging that such a move would be too controversial. Essam el-Arian." he said. "The Muslim Brotherhood group believes in the freedom of the formation of political parties. said the movement would not run any candidate for upcoming presidential elections. Its time for solidarity.Associated Press reporters. Sun News – 2/14 (LEE KEATH and HAMZA HENDAWI .thesunnews. "We are not going to have a candidate for the upcoming presidential elections.

the group does have a presence among the masses. And the bulk of its membership comprises moderates committed to peaceful relations with Egypt's neighbors. As a result. Their relationship vis-à-vis the U. That isn't a bad thing. the alternative is worse. The political scientist Barrington Moore once famously posited: "No bourgeoisie.us.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS %3A+Politics%29) CJC Rosefsky Wickham." What we are seeing is the Arab world corollary: No Islamist representation. Beehner – 2/1 (Lionel Beehner is a fellow with the Truman National Security Project and Ph. Carrie author of "Mobilizing Islam: Religion. policy still feels . There is concern that a party inhospitable to American interests — namely the Muslim Brotherhood — could fill a power vacuum were President Hosni Mubarak to be tossed from office like Tunisia's Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. secure foreign aid and snap up White House invitations. February 2. The key question is whether the Brotherhood will continue to exercise self-restraint when the Mubarak regime falls. given its offshoots with ties to terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda and its alleged role in the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in 1981. including Israel. True. CNN – 2/2 (Elise Labott and Josh Levs. Other experts believe the Brotherhood will grab power if given the chance. http://www. has won the Brotherhood's support. 2/1/2011. http://www. Mohamed ElBaradei. no democracy.cnn.S.S. its orientation was hardly pro-democratic. but to reform Egyptian politics by cleaning up corruption and releasing political prisoners. as they have with Hamas in Palestine or Hezbollah in Lebanon.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 137/148 Cross-X. though their role and influence remain unclear. It is more popular than Egypt's liberal opposition. Nor is it clear they'd install an Iran-style theocracy. But after being banned in 1954.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – A2: Muslim Brotherhood Bad Muslim Brotherhood does not represent a threat to transition to radical Islam in Egypt.com/2011/POLITICS/02/02/sweep. can best be summed up: Hey. arguing that the Brotherhood is less interested in seizing power and calling the shots than it is in spreading its message and influencing policy. These fears are overblown. U. But Washington cannot wish away their widespread support among Egypt's religious classes. but trust me.com/news/opinion/forum/2011-02-01-column01_ST2_N." Even though its members support sharia law. as the country's largest opposition movement.egypt/index. candidate in political science at Yale University. CNN Staff. 2011. The threat posed by Islamists seizing power is more often than not a crutch used by autocrats to safeguard their positions. we may not be perfect. Their turns are overblown rhetoric without specific facts about the Muslim Brotherhood. Islamic role is essential But let's face it. We have seen this in spades since 9/11. The Atlantic's Robert Kaplan describes the group as a "community self-help organization.htm) CJC The United States has played a role of wait-and-see as protests have raged across Tunisia and Egypt. Indeed.D. no democracy. when the group was founded in a smoky coffeehouse in 1920s Cairo. Rosefsky believes it will. and nonMuslims. when presidents from Pakistan's Pervez Musharraf to Egypt's Mubarak played up the threat of radical Islamists at home to secure more goodies from Washington — namely billions of dollars worth of aid and military hardware — and retain power. 'Islamist' fears overblown”. an opposition candidate for president. Though technically illegal. The Brotherhood also suffers from an image problem.usatoday. any grassroots reform coalition in Egypt must win the Brotherhood's support. an associate professor of political science at Emory University and notes that the Brotherhood is an umbrella organization that encompasses different views and trends. “The Sweep: The risk of democracy in the Middle East”. but it is no longer the defiant anti-system movement it was in the past. for a democratic coalition to come to power in Egypt it has to make political room for religious groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood. the movement drifted from the fiery rhetoric of past enlistees such as al-Qaeda deputy Ayman al-Zawahri— or even the anti-American theologian Sayyid Qutb — to make room for liberal values. He is also a member of USA TODAY's Board of Contributors. Indeed. “In Egypt." The Muslim Brotherhood is not a threat to US interests. Activism and Political Change in Egypt. some foreign policy observers are urging caution in calling for regime change or immediate elections. And some Muslim Brothers have participated in the recent protests. their primary aim is not to roll back women's rights or install an Islamic caliphate (much less a Taliban-style haven for terrorists).

Moderate Islam is an essential part of democracy in the Middle East —Washington needs to start reading its own memos. so too will the Muslim Brotherhood be part of a future — and.S. just as we tend to oversentimentalize the secular opposition candidates as saints. Post-9/11 paranoia about radical Islam has made too many Americans allergic to the "I" word in political movements — an untenable position in the Middle East as the U. If the Brotherhood wins in a landslide. they would not have thrown their support behind ElBaradei. . "Unfortunately. meanwhile. Just as the Taliban will be included in whatever future government of Afghanistan finally sticks. whether now or later this year. And he must. so too do we demonize parties with a religious bent. should back elections there. "This cycle of suspicion and discord must end. "Whether the Brotherhood would in fact try to impose such a (theocratic) regime is unknown." President Obama pledged in his June 2009 speech in Cairo. but whether he will accept them. The question is not whether the Muslim Brotherhood will seek to join ElBaradei's coalition. This isn't Iran Also. a secular technocrat. There are no colorful or anti-American religious clerics like Ayatollah Khomeini waiting in the wings. Egypt is not post-Shah Iran. Let us not forget that America's two most recent nation-building efforts have resulted in the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and an Iraqi constitution that defines the country as an Islamic Democratic Republic. itself has acknowledged in practice.com Thursday File hamstrung from the memories of Iran in 1979.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 138/148 Cross-X. Indeed. yes. democratic — Egypt. The United States." Maybe." Max Boot of the Council on Foreign Relations wrote recently. that could be preferable to propping up an unpopular dictator. but if the Brothers were hell-bent on installing an Iranian- style theocracy. the only way to find out would be to let them take over. We cannot avoid free elections because of the threat of Islamist parties.

Erian said. manifests little support for the Brotherhood.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – A2: Muslim Brotherhood Takeover Muslim Brotherhood does not have the ability to take control. Dr.000 adherents out of a population of over 80 million. A Brotherhood spokesman.” Many people outside Egypt believe that the Brotherhood gains political influence by providing health clinics and charity for the poor. welcome the Crusaders’ bases in your countries and acknowledge the existence of the Jews who are fully armed with nuclear weapons. “It’s too early to even discuss whether ElBaradei should lead a transitional government or whether we will join him.”. it might be backing the wrong horse.nytimes.” People in the West frequently conflate the Brotherhood and Al Qaeda. which fear them as the bogeyman.” Tony Blair.” he said in vilifying the group. It might be able to recover lost leverage by showing its organizational tenacity in resisting the attempts to repress the demonstrators. In January 2006.” This kind of flip-flopping makes many Egyptians scoff.” If Egyptians are given political breathing space. at least as many Egyptians see it. the Brotherhood did not arrive at this historical moment with the advantage of wide public favor. is the author of “Talking to the Enemy: Faith. “In this uprising the Brotherhood is almost invisible.com/2011/02/03/opinion/03atran. King Farouk. February 2. blasted the Brotherhood’s willingness to participate in parliamentary elections and reject nuclear arms. even many Egyptians suspect that they share a common end that is alien to democracy.” The previous day. But the very poor in Egypt are not very politically active. “You don’t just have a government and a movement for democracy. from which you are banned to possess. an anthropologist at France’s National Center for Scientific Research. And although their means are very different. Yet in 83 years it has botched every opportunity. he retorted that the United States and Mr. Kaseem told me.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 139/148 Cross-X. if only to protect their businesses from government disapproval.” Mr. so the Brotherhood survived. notably the Muslim Brotherhood. “Egypt’s Bumbling Brotherhood”. the House speaker. who would take this in a different direction. “But you can’t close mosques. This has made it a target of Al Qaeda’s venom. And according to Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh. the group has only six clinics in Cairo. 11 to “brainwash” people into thinking of all Muslim activists as terrorists. Nonetheless. Brotherhood and the (Un)making of Terrorists. Only a small minority of the protesters in Tahrir Square joined its members in prayers there (estimates range from 5 percent to 10 percent). said of Egypt on Monday. But here’s the real deal. a newspaper editor and human rights activist. today it forswears violence in political struggle. Americans and Europeans have repeatedly expressed fears of the Muslim Brotherhood. Mubarak had conspired after Sept. the University of Michigan and John Jay College. “Israel must know that it is not welcome by the people in this region. the Brotherhood will probably have representatives in any freely elected government. When I asked Dr. Ayman al-Zawahri. notably its stance against Israel. Atran – 2/2 (Scott Atran. and few Islamic slogans or chants were heard. expressed hope that Hosni Mubarak would stay on as president of Egypt while instituting reforms to prevent the Muslim Brotherhood and other extremists from grabbing power. Moreover. a former member of the Brotherhood’s Guidance Council. But it is because democracies tolerate disparate political groups that they generally don’t have civil wars. told Al Jazeera. You “falsely affiliated with Islam. he would just shut down the cafe and arrest us. 2011. “If people met in a cafe and talked about things the regime didn’t like. “You also have others. Erian told me. The Brotherhood realized that in addition to being late. Kaseem said. however. many ignored him and few rallied to his side despite the enormous publicity he was receiving in the Western press. Ever since its founding in 1928 as a rival to Western-inspired nationalist movements that had failed to free Egypt from foreign powers. Obviously the Brotherhood wants power and its positions. Many of the other clinics are Islamic in orientation simply because most Egyptians are Islamic. This error was compounded when the Brotherhood threw in its lot with Mohamed ElBaradei. And its failure to support the initial uprising in Cairo on Jan. Although originally the Brotherhood was organized into paramilitary cells. “Political groups support ElBaradei to negotiate with the regime. The wealthier businessmen who often sponsor them tend to shun the Brotherhood. the Brotherhood’s importance will rapidly fade. And because the Brotherhood itself is not monolithic — it has many factions — it could well . Such support as it does have among Egyptians — an often cited figure is 20 percent to 30 percent — is less a matter of true attachment than an accident of circumstance: the many decades of suppression of secular opposition groups that might have countered it. The street. the former diplomat and Nobel Prize winner. John Boehner. Mr. In Egypt today. The British. described playing out under Mr. the former leader of Egypt’s Islamic Jihad and Al Qaeda’s leading strategist. Gamal Abdel Nasser and Anwar elSadat all faced the same problem that Hisham Kaseem. the Brotherhood counts perhaps some 100. or wars with other democracies.” But when Mr.” Mr. Kaseem said. are problematic for American interests. “You forget about the rule of Shariah. adding that “the street” knew the truth. Erian about this. “but not in America and Europe. ElBaradei strode into Tahrir Square.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss) CJC AS Egyptians clash over the future of their government. the former British prime minister. the Muslim Brotherhood may have gained an opportunity. Dr. When the army allowed hundreds of Mubarak supporters and plainclothes policemen through barricades on Wednesday to muscle out protesters.” Dr. Their evidence is not supported by facts on the ground in Egypt and the military will check back and ensure a peaceful transition. Essam el-Erian. On Tuesday. the Muslim Brotherhood has tried to revive Islamic power. http://www. 25 has made it marginal to the spirit of revolt now spreading through the Arab world. Mubarak. a city of 18 million.

Egyptians are a pretty savvy lot. stay away. Mubarak responsible for the violence and privately inform the Egyptian Army that it cannot support any institution that is complicit. ***A2: Suez Canal*** .com 140/148 Thursday File succumb to internal division if there really were a political opening for other groups in Egypt. What we are seeing in Egypt is a revolt led by digitally informed young people and joined by families from all rungs of society. “They are only bungling things with calls for immediate reforms and against the Brotherhood. “Egypt is missing instruments essential to any functioning democracy and these must be established in the transition period — an independent judiciary. If Egypt is allowed to find its own way.A. Though in one sense it happened overnight. But there is little reason for the United States to fear a takeover by the Muslim Brotherhood. The more common assessment even among democracy advocates is that the military will retain control — Omar Suleiman.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.Q. the intelligence chief and new vice president. they are connected and they will get power in the end. an open press. We are handling this beautifully.” If America’s already teetering standing among Egyptians and across the Arab and Muslim world is not to topple altogether. who insisted that he is pro-American and abhors the Brotherhood. the problems of violent extremism and waves of emigration that America and Europe most fear from this unhappy region could well fade as its disaffected youth at last find hope at home. Hardly anyone I talked to believes that democracy can be established overnight. Kaseem. Mubarak now — and over the next decade real democratic reforms will be instituted. The Brotherhood leadership talks of a year or two of transition. as it so promisingly began to do over the past week. of 30 wouldn’t go down the same path as Mubarak because he would understand that the people of Egypt who are out in the streets are no longer apathetic. will be acceptable to Egyptians if the army gets rid of Mr. their interests are mostly secular. independent of the Brotherhood or any old guard opposition.” urged Mr. a representative Parliament. many of its young proponents have long been working behind the scenes. Kaseem said. “If you try to push democracy tomorrow we’ll end up like Mauritania or Sudan. the United States must now publicly hold Mr.” Mr.” both of which in recent decades have had coups on the heels of democratic elections.S. although that may reflect a vain hope of using that time to broaden its popular support enough to reach a controlling plurality. A military in control behind the scenes — for a while — is probably the best hope for a peaceful transition. “Let the U. Even a military leader with an I.

I've not received any orders. James Mattis said. militarily. the head of U. “U.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – US Will Keep Suez Canal Open US is prepared to intervene to keep the Suez Canal open. http://www. I just can't imagine the motive to shut that down." he said. These issues do not call for a military solution right now. "When you look at the fiscal impact of that (closing the canal) on whoever is in a position of authority in Egypt. "There's no reason right now for any shift in military forces or anything like that.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 141/148 Cross-X. Feb 1. Reuters – 2/1 (Staff. but that to me is hypothetical and I would defer to the political leaders. "Were it to happen obviously we would have to deal with it (Reuters) diplomatically. economically. . Central Command said on Tuesday. speaking at a London event hosted by the Policy Exchange think tank. militarily" to any closure of the Suez Canal although such an event seems inconceivable. 2011.com/article/2011/02/01/us-egypt-usa-mattis-idUSTRE71086W20110201? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29)CJC The United States would respond "diplomatically." Gen." he said. He had been asked if the United States would be prepared to act if there were any disruptions to the key shipping channel because of instability in Egypt. "The short answer is no.S. whatever.reuters." he said. I've not requested or directed anything like that. economically.S. Mattis said the United States had no plans to re-order its military forces in the region because of instability in North Africa. sees Suez Canal closure as inconceivable”.

some mitigating factors.”. “Whoever is governing is going to need money. They don’t need a big spike in gas prices to go along with a 20 percent hike in food prices.politico.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 142/148 Cross-X. The canal and pipeline together control only about 3 percent of the world’s crude oil supply. http://dyn. “There’s no leverage in cutting off a key earner. February 1.” said former State Department and Defense Department official Anthony Cordesman. “Egypt: Worst scenarios for W. which guards the canal — badly needs the revenue it generates.H. And Egypt — especially the army. a Washington think tank. a Middle East expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.” . however.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – A2: Oil Cut-Off No Impact and No Risk that Oil gets cut off regardless who is in control in Egypt.com/printstory. and they are going to need it in a hurry.cfm?uuid=DE7516BA-D472-D8EDD73BCE853D37CED6) CJC There are. 2011. POLITICO – 2/1 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico and Mike Allen is the chief political correspondent for Politico and Laura Rozen is a reporter at POLITICO.

it is only if there is a spill over in the Middle East. Restuccia – 1/31 (Andrew Restuccia.” ***A2: Aid Cuts*** . “turning a 15-hour trip into a 600-hour trip.S. http://thehill. however. which carries 3. is whether countries like Iran and Venezuela “seize upon tight global oil system capacity to air grievances or issue proclamations. oil would have to be rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope at the tip of Africa. Kevin Book. Book said. 01/31/11. but manageable. oil dependency”.” Book said. which currently runs at reduced capacity. said the biggest concern is how unrest in Egypt might affect the transport of oil. “In the event of a shutdown. were to be shut down for a short time.” The real problems. reserves from International Energy Agency countries could cover any losses.com Thursday File A2: Suez Canal Shut Down = No Impact There is no impact to shutting down the Suez Canal. which carries about 600.” Book said. The other issue of concern. If the Suez Canal. If the Suez Canal closure lasted too long. Energy and Environmental Reporter for The Hill.000 barrels of oil per day from Egypt to other parts of the world.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 143/148 Cross-X. would come if protests in Yemen affected oil transport through the nearby Strait of Bab el-Mandab. southbound flows would still be blocked. Book said. “Egypt's unrest revives debate about U. oil flowing northbound could be diverted to Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude oil pipeline. However. But the analyst warned that widespread protests across the Middle East that shut down key oil supply routes could pose a threat. Despite the length in transit.2 million barrels of oil per day to other countries.com/blogs/e2-wire/677e2-wire/141329-protests-in-egypt-spur-talk-of-oil-prices-drilling) CJC A leading energy analyst said Monday that a short-term shutdown of the Suez Canal would likely not result in major problems. Book said the result would be “nontrivial. an analyst at ClearView Energy Partners.

The bill should be on the House floor by the week of February 14. Feb 2. http://www. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell. 2011. director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. not enough time to cut it from the budget. There will be no cuts. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”. Feb 2. 2011. a House aide said. House ." Alterman said. http://www." said Jon Alterman.reuters. leaving scant time for big policy changes. "I don't think Americans have a clear view yet (of events in Egypt) and therefore it's hard for Congress to have a clear view. Staff.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Republican aides doubt there will be any major cuts in military aid to Egypt in the House version of an upcoming bill to fund the government from March through September 30.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC "I have a hard time seeing the politics come together in order to have a bipartisan and bicameral agreement on cutting aid to Egypt soon. Staff.reuters.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 144/148 Cross-X. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – No Aid Cuts Aid will not get cut anytime soon.

Dorell – 2/14 (Oren Dorell. "we will support Hamas like others will.S. And if the government decides to open border crossings between Egypt and the Gaza Strip. “Ideology shadows fight to rule the new Egypt”.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 145/148 Cross-X.-designated terror group that rules Gaza. Reporter at USA TODAY. Change Egyptian policy toward Israel will change inevitably.usatoday. For years. 2/14/2011. Even liberals say they will pay more attention to the Palestinians than Mubarak did.com/news/world/2011-02-14-1Aegypt14_CV_N." he said. Mubarak The Brotherhood wants to put Egypt's peace treaty with Israel up to a referendum. Abdel Fattah said. http://www.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt Policy -> Israel Inev. Most agree that clamped down on arms to Hamas and opposed Hezbollah.htm) CJC Egypt's policy toward Israel will change no matter who gains power. referring to the U. ***A2: Israel*** ***Offense*** .

Gregg.com/printstory. 2011. “Egypt: Worst scenarios for W.”. “This makes it clear that Israel and Palestine have to come to a significant peace agreement — sooner rather than later because there is going to be tremendous instability in Egypt for the foreseeable future.H.” he said. POLITICO – 2/1 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico and Mike Allen is the chief political correspondent for Politico and Laura Rozen is a reporter at POLITICO. thinks .cfm?uuid=DE7516BA-D472-D8EDD73BCE853D37CED6) CJC the looming shift away from the Camp David Accords could be a spur to peace negotiators.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – Turn: Peace Process The failure of the Egypt-Israel Peace Accords would spark Israel-Palestinian deal. http://dyn.politico. February 1.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 146/148 Cross-X. for one.

S. is that the revolt was not viewed as directly related to the West. as if American words in the middle of an upheaval that is not our doing can affect the outcome in Egypt and turn the tide of Arab public opinion in favor of the United States. where there is obvious public opposition to the clerical regime. for its own sake. and from the U. anger with the United States on foreign policy issues — particularly Iraq and the Arab-Israeli conflict — and deep suspicion of U. like the Al Jazeera network. Even in Iran.politico.S. Events in Egypt are mostly out of our control. one has to wonder whether these events could have taken place even earlier had there not been the diversion of the Iraq War — and whether these upheavals might have swept away Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship without shots being fired from the outside. Washington is likely to be seen as attempting to control events — moving to pre-empt the public will and engineering an outcome to its liking. every year since the Iraq War began. The United States support of repressive regimes because they are willing to support US policy means more oppression of people to keep them quiet. Whether President Barack Obama publicly calls for President Hosni Mubarak to resign will very likely have little effect on Arab and Egyptian public opinion. But let’s have no illusion about the effect of what we say on the outcome in Egypt — or throughout the Arab world.S. The Iraq War was most telling. It’s not up to the United States to determine who the next president of Egypt will be. January 31. As long as the United States has a heavy military footprint in the region. including those in places supporting an Egyptian revolution. There is a sense in U. who are prepared to risk their lives for them. are already asking whether the Egyptian upheaval was instigated by Washington — with some “evidence” presented. One reason the Tunisian revolution succeeded in toppling the president without major ramifications for the U. It is partly about that.S. This includes places like Iran. foreign policy. The outcome has been that. It will quite likely be mocked by Hassan Nasrallah of Hezbollah — just as he mocked France for how quickly it abandoned its client after Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali’s departure from Tunisia. voice on behalf of regime change in Cairo. is fighting wars in the Middle East and is invested in the outcome of the ArabIsraeli conflict.”. many of whom were happy to get Washington’s support to throw off their dictator but were still unhappy with U.S. must side with people standing for self-determination and freedom. does take a forceful position. Telhami – 1/31 ( Shibley Telhami is Anwar Sadat professor for peace and development at the University of Maryland and a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. national discourse that the anger with the United States is only about its support for authoritarian governments in the region. intentions put the genuine democracy advocates in the region on the defensive.S. polls of Arabs revealed their sense that the Middle East is even less democratic than before. As we witness the remarkable and inspiring events in both Tunisia and Egypt.com Thursday File Aff – Withdraw = More Democratic Reforms Large military foot print in the middle-east drives repression and will spark continued violent backlash against oppressive regimes. policy in the region in the past few years. When the Bush administration used the Iraq War as a vehicle to spread democratic change in the Middle East. To be sure. “Upheaval in Egypt: Not about the U. But it’s deeper and more complex — as we have seen in the attitudes of the Iraqi people. as indicated by the contestation over the 2009 presidential election. Washington has been debating what the White House should or should not say. America’s inability to engineer political outcomes in the region — or even predict them — has been demonstrated in events ranging from the outcome of the Iraq War itself to contests for power in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories. Resolving Washington’s dilemma in its relationship with authoritarian rulers in the region will not be addressed by White House speeches or even the elimination of U. it will continue to prefer cooperative regimes over a public will that goes against it.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 147/148 Cross-X.com/printstory.S.S. If and when the U.S. But if there is any lesson to be learned from Tunisia. But others. one wonders whether the Iranian people might succeed if the regime were robbed of its ability to point fingers at the West. The United States. foreign aid. 2011. http://dyn. the vast majority of the Arab public passionately opposed it. it is that these historic and indigenous events in Egypt must not become about the United States. we must have no illusion about how it will be spun by many Arabs.cfm? uuid=D88A5DBE-DB47-2BCB-9B6BD331D950FDD0) CJC Ever since Egypt’s public demonstrations calling for regime change began. Even as the United States was waging a war partly in the name of democracy. The plan moves away from a large military footprint in the middle east allowing for more democratic reforms. and even many . In any case. many democracy advocates want to see a more forceful U.

.com 148/148 Thursday File governments counseled against it — largely for fear of public opposition. are military to military. Today. reacted in the way they knew best: They became even more repressive. intelligence to intelligence. priorities. Given that repression now appears to be failing.S. policy in the region — beyond what happens in Egypt.S. regardless of who rules at the top. security service to security service. driven by strategic U. this is a moment for a bigger assessment of U. which made them even more insecure.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. our closest institutional relationships in the Arab world. These agencies are the anchors of repression in the region. But we insisted and we rewarded and we threatened — and got our way with most. The net result was that those governments that went against the will of the overwhelming majority.

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