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Cross-X.com Thursday File
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley..................................................................................................................1 ***Notes***.....................................................................................................................................5 ***1NC Shell***...............................................................................................................................6 *****Uniqueness*****..............................................................................................10 *****Uniqueness*****....................................................................................................................10 UQ Ext – A2: Dip Cap Low..............................................................................................................11 UQ Ext – A2: Military Control = N/U...............................................................................................12 UQ Ext – Focused Diplomacy.........................................................................................................13 Diplomacy Focus Key....................................................................................................................15 UQ Ext – Military Diplomacy..........................................................................................................16 UQ Ext – US Has Influence Over Military.......................................................................................18 UQ Ext – Timeframe – Next Few Months Key.................................................................................19 UQ Ext – Dip. K2 Election Timing...................................................................................................20 *****Links*****.......................................................................................................20 *****Links*****..............................................................................................................................20 A2: Link Turns: Timing – (A Must Read).........................................................................................21 2NC Link Magnifier - Focus............................................................................................................22 2NC Link Magnifier – Perception....................................................................................................23 2NC Aid Link Magnifier..................................................................................................................24 Ext – Aid Link: A2 Aid Cuts Now.....................................................................................................26 Ext – Aid Link: Econ Spark Instability.............................................................................................27 2NC Links – Plan Kills Coercive Diplomacy ..................................................................................28 Link – General...............................................................................................................................30 Link – Military Change...................................................................................................................35 Link – Afghanistan ........................................................................................................................36 Links – Asia....................................................................................................................................39 Link – Japan...................................................................................................................................41 Link – South Korea.........................................................................................................................42 Link – Iraq .....................................................................................................................................43 Link – TNWs ..................................................................................................................................48 Link – Turkey.................................................................................................................................51 *****Internal Links*****..........................................................................................51 *****Internal Links*****.................................................................................................................51 2NC Ext - Dip Cap Finite – Egypt...................................................................................................52 2NC Ext – Dip Cap Finite – Middle East..........................................................................................53 2NC Ext – Dip Cap Finite...............................................................................................................54 2NC Ext – Diplomatic Capital Key – Plan Cost................................................................................56 Military K2 Secular Transition........................................................................................................57 A2: Military Not Relinquish Power.................................................................................................59 Dip. K2 Transition – Military...........................................................................................................60 Sustained Diplomacy Checks Extremist Rise.................................................................................62 Dip Cap Checks Spillover..............................................................................................................63 A2: No Influence............................................................................................................................64 *****Impact Scenarios*****.....................................................................................64 *****Impact Scenarios*****...........................................................................................................64 ***Suez Canal Shell***............................................................................................64 ***Suez Canal Shell***..................................................................................................................64
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.com 2/148 Thursday File Close Suez Canal = Price Shocks..................................................................................................66 Egypt K2 Oil Markets.....................................................................................................................67 Egypt – Military K2 Suez Canal......................................................................................................68 Impact Magnifier: Saudi Arabia.....................................................................................................69 ***Leadership Shell***..................................................................................................................70 Ext - Leadership............................................................................................................................74 ***Terrorism Shell***..............................................................................................74 ***Terrorism Shell***....................................................................................................................74 Egypt Intel = Best.........................................................................................................................76 Egypt – Counterterrorism..............................................................................................................77 Yemen Spillover............................................................................................................................78 Spillover -> Yemen = Terrorism....................................................................................................79 ***Instability Shell***.............................................................................................79 ***Instability Shell***....................................................................................................................79 Ext – Instability..............................................................................................................................81 ME Diplomacy – Bahrain & Yemen................................................................................................82 Yemen Counter Terrorism.............................................................................................................83 ***Bahrain Shell***.................................................................................................83 ***Bahrain Shell***........................................................................................................................83 Bahrain – 5th Fleet........................................................................................................................87 Bahrain Spillover -> Gulf Oil States...............................................................................................88 Egypt -> Bahrain...........................................................................................................................89 ***Israel Relations Shell***.....................................................................................89 ***Israel Relations Shell***............................................................................................................89 Israel Brink....................................................................................................................................92 A2: Brotherhood Not A Threat.......................................................................................................93 ***Muslim Brotherhood***......................................................................................93 ***Muslim Brotherhood***.............................................................................................................93 Muslim Brotherhood Pushing For Control .....................................................................................94 A2: Muslim Brotherhood Not Win Enough Seats............................................................................95 Egypt – Influence K2 Avoid Islam Rise...........................................................................................96 Brotherhood = Price Spikes...........................................................................................................98 Brotherhood = Econ Collapse........................................................................................................99 Brotherhood = ME Instability......................................................................................................100 Muslim Brother Hood Pushing For Power.....................................................................................101 Brotherhood = No MEPP..............................................................................................................102 Transition K2 Check Muslim Brotherhood....................................................................................103 A2: Muslim Brotherhood Not Threat............................................................................................104 ***Foreign Aid***.................................................................................................104 ***Foreign Aid***.........................................................................................................................104 Congress Cut Aid.........................................................................................................................105 Aid: Peaceful Transition K2 Prevent Cut......................................................................................106 Aid K2 Leverage..........................................................................................................................107 Aid K2 Arms Sales.......................................................................................................................108 Aid Cut Quickly............................................................................................................................109 Egypt – A2: No Aid Cut – Budget.................................................................................................110 Egypt – Aid On Table...................................................................................................................111
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.com 3/148 Thursday File ***Iran***............................................................................................................111 ***Iran***....................................................................................................................................111 Diplomacy = Iran Transition........................................................................................................112 ***** Affirmative Answers*****..............................................................................113 ***** Affirmative Answers*****...................................................................................................113 ***2AC F/L***..............................................................................................................................114 ***Uniqueness Ans.***..........................................................................................117 ***Uniqueness Ans.***................................................................................................................117 Aff – Egypt – N/U: Dip Cap Low....................................................................................................118 ***Link Level***...................................................................................................118 ***Link Level***...........................................................................................................................118 Iraq Aff – Link Turn......................................................................................................................119 Afghanistan Aff – Link Turn ........................................................................................................120 Iraq Aff – Link Turn......................................................................................................................122 Japan Aff – Link Turn...................................................................................................................123 Link – Link Turn – South Korea K Aff............................................................................................124 ***Internal Answers***.........................................................................................124 ***Internal Answers***................................................................................................................124 Aff – Egypt: No Influence.............................................................................................................125 Aff – Egypt: Aid =/= Influence.....................................................................................................126 Aff – Egypt – No Influence...........................................................................................................127 Aff – Egypt – No Influence: Military..............................................................................................129 ***Impact Ans.***.................................................................................................129 ***Impact Ans.***........................................................................................................................129 ***A2: Counterterrorism***...................................................................................129 ***A2: Counterterrorism***.........................................................................................................129 A2: Counterterrorism Impacts.....................................................................................................130 ***A2: Spillover/Instability***................................................................................130 ***A2: Spillover/Instability***......................................................................................................130 Aff – No Egypt Spillover...............................................................................................................131 ***A2: Iran Reform***...........................................................................................132 ***A2: Iran Reform***..................................................................................................................132 Aff – No Iran Reform....................................................................................................................133 ***A2: Muslim Brotherhood Bad***........................................................................134 ***A2: Muslim Brotherhood Bad***.............................................................................................134 Aff – Egypt – No I/L: Muslim Brotherhood....................................................................................135 Aff – Egypt – Brotherhood Won’t Run..........................................................................................136 Aff – Egypt – A2: Muslim Brotherhood Bad..................................................................................137 Aff – Egypt – A2: Muslim Brotherhood Takeover..........................................................................139 ***A2: Suez Canal***............................................................................................140 ***A2: Suez Canal***...................................................................................................................140 Aff – Egypt – US Will Keep Suez Canal Open...............................................................................141 Aff – Egypt – A2: Oil Cut-Off.........................................................................................................142 A2: Suez Canal Shut Down = No Impact.....................................................................................143
............................... Change........................................146 Aff – Withdraw = More Democratic Reforms................................145 ***A2: Israel***......................Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.......................................................................................................144 Aff – Egypt Policy -> Israel Inev...............................143 ***A2: Aid Cuts***...............................................................................................................................................................................145 ***A2: Israel***...........................145 ***Offense***..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................com 4/148 Thursday File ***A2: Aid Cuts***.......................................143 Aff – Egypt – No Aid Cuts...............................................147 ................................................................145 Aff – Egypt – Turn: Peace Process..................145 ***Offense***........................................................................................................................
All three happen very quickly. C.S. You are not limited to Egypt after the 1NC. Internal Link. All of the Uniqueness evidence and Internals take into account the fact that Mubarak has left power and is only talking in terms of US diplomatic response to the transition to elections. . US diplomatic response in the Middle East as a result of the Egypt Crisis.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 5/148 Cross-X. Impact Scenarios: All of your favorites are right there at your finger-tips from the general Econ impacts from Oil Price Shocks to hyper-specific scenarios about U. this argument puts you there. Nothing in the Status Quo or Affirmative can top the timeframe of the Link. you can branch out because the US is forced to deal with all of the Middle East turmoil at once as a result of Egypt allowing you to diversify and magnify your impacts. B. A. Awesome Timeframes. D. All of these impacts feed from one source.com Thursday File ***Notes*** Why you should choose to run Egypt. The internal link evidence about our focus on Egypt is fantastic right now. Carriers in the Gulf. Sometimes it is just good to be on the side of truth in the world. and Impacts.
2009 [Kim.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss %2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS%3A+Politics%29) CJC The Obama administration launched into diplomatic outreach throughout the Middle East Saturday. and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is expected to call leaders in the region this weekend.mubarak/index. Diplomacy between the United States and Egypt been effectively cut off. Current efforts will succeed. Holmes. B. http://www. While the U. Ambassador to Egypt Margaret Scobey has had some contact with the foreign ministry." the congressman said." But the official added. “Sustaining American Leadership with Military Power”.S.. 6-1." one senior State Department official said. Diplomacy is tentative requiring focused and persistent efforts to maintain diplomatic contact. "We have to figure out the pecking order. And you can imagine. Field Marshal Mohammed Hussein Tantawi. Clinton also is dispatching Under Secretary William Burns to Jordan to discuss "the historic events in Egypt as well as a range of other regional and bilateral issues. This is already on display in the western Pacific Ocean. "It's been very difficult to get information through normal diplomatic channels given the rapid changes.pdf] MGM The consequences of hard-power atrophy will be a direct deterioration of America’s diplomatic clout. (Insert Specific Link or read this generic evidence) Decreasing military deployments kills diplomatic influence. is headed to Israel on a scheduled visit." a State Department statement said. CNN – 2/12 (Elise Labott and Barbara Starr. Recently. officials said. we can have a relationship and deal with that person.cnn.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 6/148 Cross-X. spokesman Geoff Morrell said. "Whomever the Egyptians chose. is already familiar with the players of the council. the No.d. military primacy and the implications that this decline would have for Australian security and stability in the Asia–Pacific. Top State Department officials are contacting every Arab foreign minister.S. CNN Reporters. http://s3. 3 official at the State Department. the official said. These developments are anything but reassuring.S.com/2011/POLITICS/02/12/us. U. "They will have to clarify who is now the head of the government. Ph. U. on Saturday. February 12.S. and will visit Jordan as well. The ability of the United States to reassure . “U. previously served as an ambassador to Jordan. Michael Mullen.com Thursday File ***1NC Shell*** A. it is still unclear who is handling diplomatic issues. and Egyptian officials said they expected the two sides to resume broader and more regular consultations this weekend. 2011. senior officials said. even as it tries to determine the composition of the Egyptian military council and the line of authority in the future Egyptian government.S.S. A big unanswered question is the future of Vice President Omar Suleiman.amazonaws." He spoke anonymously Washington (CNN) -due to the sensitivity of the ongoing diplomacy. VP for Foreign and Defense Policy Studies and Director of the David Institute for International Studies at the Heritage Foundation. Gates spoke with Egypt's defense minister. they don't want to sit down with an American right now when they've got their whole world kind of collapsing on them as we speak. The discussion. and Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Mullen had some contact with their military counterparts.com/thf_media/2009/pdf/sr0052. Adm. seeks diplomatic clarity in Mideast”. U. Gates' sixth phone conversation with the Egyptian Defense Minister since the situation in Egypt began. The congressman briefed reporters Friday afternoon on the condition they not use his name. said a Republican congressman familiar with the administration's efforts. US diplomacy has been launched throughout the Middle East to deal with the transition of power to the military and future transition to democracy. Australia released a defense White Paper that is concerned primarily with the potential decline of U. is the first high-level contact between the two governments since President Hosni Mubarak resigned. State Department officials acknowledged it has been hard to reach members of the new Egyptian government during the last 48 hours. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. where America’s ability to hedge against the growing ambitions of a rising China is being called into question by some of our key Asian allies. Burns.
com 7/148 Thursday File friends. it is critically important that the United States focus its diplomatic efforts on issues of paramount importance to the nation." said Wayne White. Diplomatic capital is finite – each new issue trades off with existing issues Anderson & Grewell – 01 (Terry L. Anderson is executive director of Political Economy Research Center ("PERC")The Center for Free Market Environmentalism. and defeat enemies does not rest on the strength of our political leaders’ commitment to diplomacy. former deputy director of the State Department's Near East & South Asia Intelligence Office. sipped sparkling fruit juices and dined on baked shrimp. they will stretch the resources necessary to deal with traditional international issues. Dorell – 2/14 (Oren Dorell.usatoday." Nawara said. Nour talked as his guests sat on gilded armchairs. according to Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq. secretary general of Nour's liberal party. members of Egypt's liberal opposition gathered Saturday night at the penthouse apartment of former presidential candidate Ayman Nour. will herald a new age in a troubled region where Arab despots. Laying the groundwork for elections The Muslim Brotherhood was founded in Egypt in 1928 . and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. deter competitors. who was forced out of the presidential palace Friday by the military and was staying at the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheik. these priorities have been opposing hostile domination of key geographic regions. lessening the focus on other issues and even creating conflicts between issues. J. who spent years in jail for challenging Mubarak's repressive regime. "Egyptians are very mellow. under Mubarak. 82. Reporter at USA TODAY. Bozeman. surrounded by clapping onlookers. Politicians such as Nour. Parties that largely were banned by Mubarak. the better the chance for the already well-organized Brotherhood to maximize its gains. 2/14/2011.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. Bishop Grewell is a research associate with PERC. "The Muslim Brotherhood don't like music or dancing." D. Fall. securing vital resources. As countries must watch over more and more issues arising in the international policy arena. As Schaefer writes. Reuel Marc Gerecht. In the upper-class neighborhood of Zamalek. . US influence over the Egyptian military is critical to ensure there is enough time for liberal political groups to organize to prevent a takeover by the Muslim Brotherhood in elections. said Wael Nawara. Only by retaining a “big stick” can the United States succeed in advancing its diplomatic priorities. where a man danced with a gyrating woman wearing a hijab.htm) CJC Leaders of political parties that dominated the protest movement disagree. has argued that the United States should welcome the upheaval as a chance for the Arab world to modernize and allow moderate forces to gain the upper hand. . Liberals and Islamists have announced that they intend to seek power through elections that. such as the sale of ballistic missiles or border conflicts between nations. Only by building a full-spectrum military force can America reassure its many friends and allies and count on their future support.com/news/world/2011-02-14-1Aegypt14_CV_N. J. 427) CJC Foreign policy is a bag of goods that includes issues from free trade to arms trading to human rights. the most populous nation in the Middle East with a population of about 82 million. it rests on the foundation of a powerful military. are looking forward to running candidates openly." Egyptians of all political persuasions celebrated the departure of Mubarak. http://www. Others say democracy in Egypt could help radicals gain power. Traditionally. Each new issue in the bag weighs it down. are wooing supporters. People talked about a new dawn for Egypt and what it took to get to this point. coerce belligerent states. Egyptians want a government that adheres to the universal declaration of human rights agreed to by the United Nations. supporting our allies. C. Int'l L. “Ideology shadows fight to rule the new Egypt”. Quick elections would result in a radical Egypt. 2001 2 Chi. fish and stuffed crab under a clear night sky beside the roof-top swimming pool. Stanford University. Many in the West are hopeful that a democratic Egypt. Montana. monarchs and sheiks have presided over restive populations from which militancy and terrorism have been exported for years. and ensuring access to foreign economies. "Because diplomatic currency is finite . senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. gesturing to a crowd listening to blaring music outside Al Ghad's downtown office. Increased environmental regulations could cause countries to lessen their focus on international threats of violence. such as the Muslim Brotherhood. had been rigged for years. "The shorter the time before new elections. Al Ghad.
He also said Egyptians should “be prepared for war against Israel. which also traverses Egypt. Though Egypt exports none itself. connecting the Red Sea with the Mediterranean. But the youth can mobilize more. February 2. businesses and ordinary Egyptians say has made daily life here difficult. It was the first time oil hit triple digits since the record spike to $147 two years ago. Western optimism notwithstanding. It will embolden extremists like nothing since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. who were not allowed to organize while the Brotherhood was able to do so in mosques and through its teachers and charities.5 million laborers moved more than 1. surrounded in her office by wooden furnishings and framed oil paintings that hark to the early 20th century. which is ruling the nation for now.0) CJC Almost immediately after angry Egyptians took to the streets last week. "They can mobilize the street. an Egyptian and former member of the Brotherhood. plans to push for a greatly expanded student exchange program with the West so young Egyptians can learn how to development the economy. It inspired al-Qaeda founder Osama Bin Laden and his deputy. we got a glimpse at one important reason why. Its strength. when Cairo was home to Jewish and Christian refugees from Europe. she predicted. Ayman Al-Zawahiri. A sharia-based state would be "totally refused" if put to a referendum in Egypt.S. oil price shocks. the U.5 percent of global oil production. For example." Makram-Ebeid said. Egypt's Armed Forces Supreme Council. Nawara says Egypt's military — which has long had close ties to the U. but not a cause for fearful reaction. Clearly. It cuts through 118 miles of Egyptian countryside. It’s a prime example of why Europe is watching events in Egypt so intently. 3 million barrels of oil and fuel products pass through the canal and the Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline." E. Mona Makram-Ebeid. thus linking Europe with East Africa and Asia.S. This will revolutionize the landscape in the most combustible part of the world. “Will the Muslim Brotherhood Close the Suez Canal?”. The Brotherhood's Abdel Fattah says the group wants Egypt's army to quickly pave the way for civilian rule. It accounts for 5 to . That amounts to 2. The shock waves will be massive. On Sunday the Brotherhood got half of what it wanted." Makram-Ebeid said. The liberal parties say they also want the United States — which sends about $1.5 billion in aid to Egypt each year — to use its influence to ensure Egyptian officers continue reforms. both want to crack down on corruption and a culture of bribery that shopkeepers. moderate ally to volatile. announced that it had dissolved Mubarak's handpicked parliament and suspended the constitution. he said. the Muslim Brotherhood will likely end up in power—which means the Middle East’s most populous and influential Arab country is about to lurch from relatively stable. Nawara says sweeping out the corrupt members of the regime is a first step toward encouraging foreign investment in Egypt that will lead to jobs. On Monday. Allowing the Muslim Brotherhood to gain control of Egypt would result in a closure of the Suez Canal. and place formidable levers of power in their hands. Initially completed over 140 years ago—after 1. The liberal parties and youth groups that kept the protests going for 20 days have a platform. is a result of Mubarak's repression of liberals. a Coptic Christian and former member of the Egyptian parliament. and some of their goals are similar to those that the Brotherhood supports.” It was a chilling peek at what might happen once the dust settles from these popular protests sweeping Egypt. Middle East Instability. http://thetrumpet. A leading Muslim Brotherhood member said the Suez Canal should be immediately shut down.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.com 8/148 Thursday File as a strict Islamic alternative to Western influences. Energy Department still classifies it as one of the few World Oil Transit Chokepoints. as well as changes to the constitution that would lay the groundwork for elections soon. Muhammad Ghannem made the provocative statement to an Arabic-language Iranian news network. 2011. military — should remain in charge of Egypt until a civilian government is running smoothly. Of particular concern is oil.0. investors were spooked at even the thought of a disruption in energy production and shipping. Control over the Suez Canal is definitely one of those levers. Every day. The Suez Canal is one of the engineering marvels of the modern world. war with Israel. and all out war. It spawned a radical cell that assassinated Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in 1981. collapsing European Economies.6537.com/?q=7928. radical enemy. Hilliker – 2/2 (Joel Hilliker Columnist. "You counter (the Brotherhood) by allowing new parties to form without any restriction. which had been packed with provisions to prevent free elections and opposition parties. oil jumped to over $100 a barrel. About two thirds of that energy is traveling north toward Europe. The Brotherhood is "a cause for concern. but the Brotherhood wants investment strategies to abide by Islamic law.2 billion cubic feet of soil with picks and shovels—to this day it remains a conduit for roughly 8 percent of global seaborne trade.
told the Wall Street Journal. in a purposeful display of Arab strength. These differences would result in a far different outcome than the war in 1956. it actually tried to assassinate Nasser). the Suez Canal remains very significant strategically. " Jonathan Pollard's spying for Israel was to furnish satellite images of Soviet targets and other super sensitive data relating to U. The canal was the West’s most prominent asset in the Middle East: At the time.com 9/148 Thursday File 7 percent of Europe’s oil consumption. which relies heavily on jet fuel. Clearly.org/articles /0203/0331steinbachisraeli. in these economically strained. In the end. rather than a fading Britain. In fact. beholden to Third World opinion. the existence of an arsenal of mass destruction in such an unstable region in turn has serious implications for future arms control and disarmament negotiations. It is widely reported that the principal purpose of even the threat of nuclear war. an organization sure to prove even more aggressive than Nasser was (at one time. Steinbach. This time. The European empire described in biblical prophecy—and presently coalescing. delaying delivery times and markedly increasing costs. It is important to note that. extremely oil-dependent times. The United Nations. once unthinkable except as a last resort. unified Europe. It was a massive defeat for Britain in particular. “This is one of the reasons why Egypt’s stability is fundamental for the economy too."(41) and Ezar Weissman. a nuclear escalation.htm Meanwhile. also dissented.000 miles around Africa. France. That’s the last thing a continent mired in economic problems wants. Israel's current President said "The nuclear issue is gaining momentum(and the) next war will not be conventional. or should any Arab nation fire missiles against Israel. and Should war break out in the Middle East again. which it is in our interest to avoid at all costs. Colonel Gamal Nasser had taken part in a coup against the Egyptian monarchy in 1952 and then overthrown the president two years later. Since that event. Seymour Hersh warns. the links between Iran and Egypt will be strong and deep by that point—so much so that Europe will feel compelled to eliminate them both in a stroke. The New York Times reported on the same possibility: “While [oil] prices are set globally. would be a surging. Franco Frattini. “This in turn could cause Europe to quickly unite into the most powerful economic bloc in the world. And on the other. One could be forgiven for thinking that Ghannem’s call to close the canal was calculated to panic Europeans. Europe has significantly reduced its dependence on Suez. F. Worse. said Monday. in Daniel’s prophecy. Already this past week. (43) (Since launching its own satellite in 1988. it violently overthrows Egypt in the process (“and the land of Egypt shall not escape.S.” Dalton Garis. current conditions resound with echoes of that history. a full four fifths of Western Europe’s oil was passing through it. http://wagingpeace. an associate professor at an Abu Dhabi energy-research center. Israel no longer needs U. as the Iraqis did. Oil tankers transporting Middle East oil westward would have to travel the extra 6. nuclear targeting strategy.” Remember. and European supply—and global prices—would be “affected tremendously. Britain and Israel responded to Nasser’s provocation by combining forces to invade. In July 1956. Islamist Middle Eastern power (“the king of the south”) of a German-led European empire (“the king of the north”). On one side would be the Muslim Brotherhood. European oil prices have soared—even higher than those in America. the Suez Canal was once before at the heart of a war. Longtime Trumpet readers are well familiar with the end-time prophecy in Daniel 11—set to be fulfilled soon—of a “push” by an Iranian-led.” Daniel 11:42 tells us). the players would be somewhat different. On one side was an Egyptian leader with a vision of militant pan-Arabism that put him at odds with European colonial powers. he seized control of the Suez Canal. spy secrets. is the prospect of a radical.” he wrote in the Trumpet’s December 1994 edition.. and control of the vital Suez Canal was yielded up to Egypt."(42) Russia and before it the Soviet Union has long been a major(if not the major) target of Israeli nukes.) Israeli nukes aimed at the Russian heartland seriously complicate disarmament and arms control negotiations . a ceasefire was imposed. marking its unmistakable loss of status as a great power—and the fulfillment of a biblical prophecy that it would lose control of its sea gates. And. Disrupt these shipments. In what has proven to be a terrible blunder. “People talking about the closure of the Suez Canal are talking about a collapse of the state. Investors are concerned that Egypt’s instability makes ships passing through the canal more susceptible to attack.. heating oil and other distillates refined in the Middle East and shipped via the canal and pipeline” (emphasis mine). when a unified Europe wipes out Iran. would now be a strong probability. On the other side were the canal’s European owners. anti-West government taking over Cairo and shutting the canal down altogether.” Italy’s foreign minister. MIDDLE EAST WAR WILL PRODUCE GLOBAL NUCLEAR CONFLAGRATION. as a result of trade in the Mediterranean and therefore with Europe. and unimaginably ferocious in securing the energy and other resources it needs to fuel itself. The prospect of a Muslim Brotherhood government gaining control over this asset—punctuated by the explicit call for its closure by a prominent member—makes it easy to imagine a militant Egyptian government again using the canal to provoke a European power. even amid financial troubles—is a voracious economic power. however. a likelihood Barclays Capital warned of this week.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. the United States broke from its British ally and came out firmly against the action. Our editor in chief has speculated about the likelihood of oil factoring into this provocation: Iran could well gain control over supplies to such an extent as to be able to drive prices to uncomfortable highs. Nevertheless.S. the immediate impact of any interruption would be felt primarily in Europe.. though. 2002.
com Thursday File and. ".. if the familar pattern(Israel refining its weapons of mass destruction with U.. and dramatically lowers the threshold for their actual use.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 10/148 Cross-X. the unilateral possession of nuclear weapons by Israel is enormously destabilizing.for whatever reason.the deepening Middle East conflict could trigger a world conflagration." *****Uniqueness***** . if not for all out nuclear war. In the words of Mark Gaffney. complicity) is not reversed soon.S. at the very least.
S. expanded ties with China. either because we were too unilateral or we weren't dealing with what we needed to deal with. diplomacy?”.sweep/index.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 11/148 Cross-X. http://www. “Can Clinton remake U. CNN Senior State Department Producer. That narrative is beginning to fade. allies in Europe. February 16. she also traveled to the tiny Pacific island of Papua New Guinea." .S. no country is too small to partner with the United States.com/2011/POLITICS/02/16/clinton.com Thursday File UQ Ext – A2: Dip Cap Low Clinton efforts have restored credibility to American diplomacy.the idea that there was an American decline. Even as she managed a reset with Russia. "These capital investments helped us deal with what was the biggest problem that we came in facing -. 2011. Labott – 2/16 (Elise Labott. which has massive undeveloped fields of petroleum and natural gas. and deepened relationships with traditional U.cnn.html?iref=allsearch) CJC For Clinton." said Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg. "That our credibility and leadership were shot.
the higher military council said it would take measures for an interim phase and hoped to realise people’s hopes. has long seemed resistant to change.com/site/topics/article. 75. it’s moved into martial law and where it goes is now subject to debate. “This is just the end of the beginning. GONE”. http://www. He has been defence minister for more than 20 years with a past rooted firmly in the old guard’s ruling elite. over how far the military under Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi. 11 February. going. it praised Mubarak for resigning “in the interests of the nation” and the “martyrs” who died protesting.gulf-times.” US officials familiar with the US-sponsored Egyptian military say Tantawi. In a statement. Gulf Times – 2/11 (Daily Newspaper published by Gulf Publishing & Printing Co.especially since the hitherto banned Islamist Muslim Brotherhood is one of the best organised forces.com Thursday File UQ Ext – A2: Military Control = N/U Mubarak step down just beings a new round of diplomacy with the military to ensure the transition. “Going. Mubarak’s veteran defence minister. Qatar.asp? cu_no=2&item_no=415614&version=1&template_id=57&parent_id=56) CJC There was a note of caution in the background. “Egypt isn’t moving toward democracy. . however. Striking the even-handed note the military has maintained throughout the crisis.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 12/148 Cross-X. are ready to permit a democracy -. Doha.” said Jon Alterman of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. 2011.
and say there are clear limits to Washington's influence on key players in Cairo. Los Angeles Times. "America can't dictate. "What we have seen so far is positive. http://www.com Thursday File UQ Ext – Focused Diplomacy Egypt still requires US diplomacy and regionally an increased role currently to deal with rising wave of protests to reassure allies. talks budget at news conference”. He would be watching. LA Times – 2/11 (David S. 'Let us look at Egypt's example as opposed to Iran's. http://www.latimes. The administration has been busy making calls to senior Egyptian officers. "This opens the door for them to begin a full dialogue.com/news/politics/la-pn-news-conference-obama-20110216.com/news/politics/la-fgegypt-obama-strategy-20110213." the president said.' " Obama also argued that change was an ongoing process.story? page=2&utm_medium=feed&track=rss&utm_campaign=Feed%3A%20latimes%2Fnews %2Fpolitics%20%28L. we don't believe in violence." US must continue to keep the pressure on the Egyptian military to ensure a smooth transition to elections.5736229. . A White House aide said: "This is hardly over. "Each country is different. "We have sent a strong message to allies in the region.0.latimes. we don't believe in coercion. LA Times – 2/15 (Michael A." Obama said Egypt is going to require help in developing democratic institutions. 2011.story? track=rss) CJC The question-and-answer session was Obama's first solo press conference since late December and gave reporters a chance to question the president on economic issues and to more fully probe the president's views on the situation in Egypt and other prodemocracy movements throughout the Arab world. "We are obviously concerned about stability. "Real change in these societies is not going to happen because of terrorism. no champagne toasts on the Truman Balcony like the one Obama hosted after Congress passed his healthcare overhaul last year. but so far the country is sending "the right signals." Obama said. http://www." but "there are certain universal principles we adhere to. lauding Egyptian demonstrators who peacefully "bent the arc of history toward justice included a pointed message for the military leaders who now were in charge. he warned them. each country has its own traditions. Obama posed a plan for United States policy. it will happen because people come together." Obama said people should have a right to express their opinions in public. Cloud and Paul Richter. trying to keep the pressure on.0. February 15." and the issue is to "get ahead of change. 2011.story?track=rss) CJC diplomats also acknowledge that events could still easily spin out of control given Egypt's lack of experience with democracy." Noting that a wave of protests has spread across the region.%20Times%20-%20Politics%29&utm_source=feedburner) CJC Obama at his most eloquent.5580994.3805635.com/news/politics/lafg-egypt-us-20110212. "Obviously. A senior administration official suggested Friday that the opposition should be satisfied with Mubarak's departure and other concessions. there is still a lot of work to be done in Egypt itself.latimes.'' It was once more.0. February 11. "The world is changing." Obama said in the wake of the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak and the takeover of government by the army. February 13. “Obama's strategy was to pressure Mubarak without intruding”.A. But State U. which have been stifled by the government. “Obama praises Egypt. faces critical test of influence on Egypt”. LA Times Staff Writers. for a "transition that is credible in the eyes of the Egyptian people. LA Times – 2/13 (Peter Nicholas.S.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 13/148 Cross-X." he said. Los Angeles Times Reporters. He drew a contrast between the demonstrations in Egypt and those in Iran." But he also Diplomats know the situation is volatile and could easily spin out of control if they lack focus of their influence in Egypt.S." he said. “U. 2011. Memoli and Michael Muskal." There were no celebrations at the White House.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. 2011. Obama appeared to reach out to the military in his White House address. requiring Egyptians to now build a democracy almost from scratch. and laying out a clear path to elections that are fair and free. lifting the emergency law. He drew a link between the rebellion that began Jan. expects the Egyptian generals to dismantle the machinery of a repressive state.com 14/148 Thursday File Department officials warned that political reform will be a "medium term" undertaking. Mubarak's departure threatens to end 30 years of certainty in which American administrations could count on Egypt maintaining its 1979 peace treaty with Israel. http://www.S." Obama said. Now it must deal with another daunting task: coaxing the country's new military rulers to deliver genuine democratic reforms they have resisted for decades. After days of being buffeted by events. “U. Washington director for Human Rights Watch." "That means protecting the rights of Egypt's citizens. as well as cooperating on counter-terrorism efforts. Obama made it clear that the U. Martin Luther King Jr. President Obama moved quickly within hours of Mubarak's departure to try to influence the Egypt that will follow. Los Angeles Times Reporters. said that the Obama administration was already reaching out to other Middle Eastern allies to warn that they should respond to calls for reform to avoid the same sort of upheaval seen in Egypt. But even as Obama hailed the triumph of democracy in the Cairo streets. Tom Malinowski. and preserving that flow — as well as the Egyptian military's longstanding ties with the Pentagon — is likely to be a major goal for the country's new leaders.3805635. warning they would "have to ensure a transition that is credible in the eyes of the Egyptian people.story?track=rss) CJC The Obama administration got what it said it wanted when Hosni Mubarak surrendered power. the Berlin Wall's crumbling. Cloud and Paul Richter. revising the constitution and other laws to make this change irreversible. requiring time to develop and nurture institutions that will give the country a stable and inclusive political process.'s fight for racial equality in the United States. commending the army for not firing upon the vast crowds protesting Mubarak's continued rule. The task is difficult because Mubarak brutally suppressed any party that threatened his stranglehold on power. is not without leverage. his administration was adjusting to the loss of a bedrock ally in a volatile region. It provides Egypt with $1. Yet the U. faces critical test of influence on Egypt”.S. But he reserved most of his praise for the protesters. 25 and some of the epochal political movements of the 20th century: Gandhi's nonviolent struggle for India's independence.com/news/politics/lafg-egypt-us-20110212.latimes. LA Times – 2/11 (David S.0. . February 11. In a seven-minute address from the White House.S.5 billion in aid every year. US is using the full force and speed of its diplomacy to handle the transition in Egypt.
known for relying on a tight circle of foreign policy advisers based in the West Wing and Vice President Joe Biden’s office.” in the words of one former State Department higher-up. But it’s also because the pragmatic Clinton is “one of the few remaining grown-ups. She knows all of these players very well. It requires “all hands on deck” to manage the situation.com Thursday File Diplomacy Focus Key Clinton and her diplomacy team are critical to a successful transition.” adds Kurtzer. But Clinton. “And she’s one of the only people who could step in. http://www. who entered Foggy Bottom without the policy agenda of many of her predecessors. has never occupied such a central role in such an unpredictable situation. Bush’s ambassador to Israel. has turned to Clinton in the past for advice and to serve as the public face for the administration’s policies. February 2.” says Daniel Kurtzer who served as ambassador to Egypt under Bill Clinton and as President George W. “You need someone out there who understands the complexity of this situation. who can speak authoritatively at a time of rapid staff turnover in the West Wing.politico. “She’s the obvious choice to adopt this role.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 15/148 Cross-X. That’s because the administration has never faced a foreign crisis of this magnitude that requires “all hands on deck. Thrush – 2/2 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico. and that’s critical at a time when the administration is presented with so few good alternatives.com/news/stories/0211/48658.” .” according to a senior administration official.html) CJC Obama. “Hillary Clinton plays key role in dance with Hosni Mubarak”. 2011.
html) CJC “The military. Washington columnist for the Los Angeles Times. Feb 13. U.” Kirby said. Decades of ties. February 13. reporter for Bloomberg News.S.” he said. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. Gates and other top U. after President Hosni Mubarak ceded his powers to it Feb. officials met with Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak at the White House this week. Feb 13. “Public Praise. http://www. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. The calls aren’t intended to pressure the Egyptian military to do anything specific. for its part. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger.column) CJC Left to their own devices. a U. has proposed a three-man "presidential council" with only one of the seats reserved for the military. Diplomacy will require continued aid.bloomberg. Mullen will attend a ceremony marking the end of Israeli Lieutenant General Gabi Ashkenazi’s term as chief of staff.N.S. “Public Praise. Military diplomacy with Egypt is critical to ensuring a stable transition. 2011. McManus – 2/13 (Doyle McManus. who wasn’t authorized to speak publicly on the calls. 2011. it's unlikely the generals. Mohamed ElBaradei. according to Pentagon spokesmen Geoff Morrell and Navy Captain John Kirby.3212459.S. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. As Gates and Mullen have tried to keep on top of events in Egypt.html) CJC Pentagon officials are using public praise and private phone calls to help the Obama administration maintain connections and influence with the Egyptian military.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military. But Egypt's next step is far from certain. Military if left to their own devices will not transition to democracy. is going to have to show some results right away. military’s commitment to that partnership. energy and patience. “Mission not yet accomplished”.bloomberg. the former chief of the U. they’ve also sought to reassure allies and partners in the region of U. military schools. a former ambassador to Egypt who is a lecturer at Princeton University.0. Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Admiral Mike Mullen. “In both countries. he will discuss security issues of mutual concern and reassure both these key partners of the U. and Mullen headed to Jordan and Israel to meet with senior civilian and military leaders there yesterday and today. which took control of the country Feb. Lifting the state of emergency that’s been in effect for 30 years and given power to security forces would “send a powerful signal throughout the society.com/news/opinion/commentary/laoe-mcmanus-column-egypt-20110213.latimes.” said Daniel Kurtzer. President Barack Obama’s top military adviser. 11 and promised a transition to democracy. has reported on national and international issues from Washington for more than 25 years. 2011. have made regular telephone calls to their counterparts.com Thursday File UQ Ext – Military Diplomacy Dealing with the Egyptian crisis is requiring huge amounts of military diplomatic capital. who provided few details on the substance of the conversations. 11. backing. has established relationships between the two forces and made pressure unnecessary so far.S. said the official. http://www. The connections may be critical in the coming weeks and months as Egypt’s Supreme Council of the Armed Forces directs a process toward elections and democratic rule.S. http://www. He is also calling for the drafting of a wholly new constitution and elections within a year. reporter for Bloomberg News.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 16/148 Cross-X. will push for a swift transition to a full and free democracy. an end to the repressive state of emergency and new elections. including training of Egyptian officers at elite U.S. International Atomic Energy Agency who has offered himself as a transitional leader. though they've promised constitutional changes. The inevitable messiness of the ensuing process will present hard choices for the . military official said on condition of anonymity. Our success relies on our military diplomacy to reassure allies that we have their back.
director of national intelligence under President George W. the United States will help. energy and patience. including the programs that would help Egyptian democracy. Obama made a start on that process with his when he praised Egypt's military for its role as "caretaker to the state" but pointedly defined its mission now as guaranteeing a real transition.S government will “play a role of holding the military’s feet to the fire” to ensure it makes democratic reforms.bloomberg.S. leverage — at the same time." and why Obama felt it necessary. But after more than 30 years of support for the military governments of Mubarak and his predecessor. its close military relationship with the U.S. political parties have sought for decades. and its peace with Israel. It's a pity that such an opportunity has arrived when we seem to be short of all three." he said." He must know that those two goals. “Public Praise. popular in Tahrir Square. Some of those same House Republicans pressed the State Department last week to bar the Muslim Brotherhood from playing any role in a new Egyptian government. The administration wants more from Egypt than just democracy. President Obama said last week that he hoped Egypt's democratization would be both "orderly and genuine." Obama said. advise and aid countries that are moving toward democracy in the world's most dangerous region.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military. a move that wouldn't make the U. The insurgencies in Egypt and Tunisia have presented the United States with an extraordinary opportunity: a chance to nudge. Anwar Sadat.com 17/148 Thursday File Obama administration too." he said. while not contradictory. the leader of the Senate's new "tea party" caucus.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. "We stand ready to provide whatever assistance is necessary. The new Republican majority statement Friday. Feb 13. the first U. will require money. Sen. That's why the word U.S. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. "They must know that they will continue to have a friend in the United States of America.). http://www. Others would cut Egypt but spare Israel." They administration is understandably concerned that Egypt's next political leaders — whether they turn out to be the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. Taking advantage of that opening. he added. it also want to maintain Egypt's stability.S. to add the democracy-friendly modifier "genuine. reporter for Bloomberg News. 2011. as Mubarak was. Rand Paul (R-Ky. Bush. said that the U.S.S. And. "Nothing less than genuine democracy will carry the day. it may prove difficult to convince Egypt's democrats that the United States was on their side all along. such as revising the constitution and enabling multiple political parties.html) CJC Negroponte. They didn't explain how to do that while reducing U. which leaders of both U. But that was a promise that may be difficult to keep. has proposed eliminating foreign aid entirely. including for both Egypt and Israel. John on CNN’s “State of the Union” yesterday . as late as Thursday. officials used most often over the last 18 days was "orderly. in the House has already proposed deep cuts in foreign aid.S. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. Influence over the military is critical to ensure that transition is stable.S. are in tension. aid — and thus U. the Facebook insurgents in Tahrir Square or even the Muslim Brotherhood — won't be as strongly pro-U.
ca News Staff-Canada." he said. told CTV News Channel that the Egyptian military finally pushed the president out. http://winnipeg. “Obama pledges to help Egypt transition to democracy”. director of the Washington-based Democracy Institute. influence played no small part. taxpayer basically funds the Egyptian military and has done so for many years.ctv. The Egyptian military certainly has good relations with the United States." Patrick . but is very much aware that it is the United States that is paying the bill that affords them the prestige and the influence in Egyptian politics that they enjoy. in part because of American influence. "The U. C-TV News – 2/11 (CTV. 11 2011.com Thursday File UQ Ext – US Has Influence Over Military US has influence over the military.S. It forced them to push out Mubarak.S.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 18/148 Cross-X.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20110211/egypttransition-us-role-110211/20110211/?hub=WinnipegHome) CJC Basham. "Whatever the motivations for the Egyptian military's move against Mubarak – clearly they told him he had to go – U. Feb.
and the army even threatened to arrest those who refused to leave. In France. especially if one has been part of a crowd for almost three weeks. the creation of citizens' committees. the months following a revolution can therefore be more dangerous than the revolution itself. not next month or next year but right now.slate.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 19/148 Cross-X. Now the country's leaders must help channel all that enthusiasm into institutional change. Her most recent book is Gulag: A History. the soldiers now ruling the country will have to do more than send everyone home. and then slumping down again in front of Facebook or Al Jazeera. the essence of crowd euphoria is the feeling that one is part of something greater than oneself. Historically. not just to celebrate but to demand more: "We won't leave because we have to make sure this country is set on the right path. Online activism is not a substitute for real activism.com/id/2285041/?from=rss) CJC Coming down from the high of a crowd experience and returning to the humdrum ordinariness of an individual life can never be easy. The satisfaction one receives from Twitter is not the same satisfaction one receives from spending hours in a room with a group of people. . 14. “The Roar of the Crowd”. Disappointment in the slow pace of post-revolutionary change cannot be avoided. Applebaum – 2/14 (Anne Applebaum is a Washington Post and Slate columnist.com Thursday File UQ Ext – Timeframe – Next Few Months Key Next few months are critical to ensure that Egypt does not collapse. staring at the wall. the mob kept resurrecting itself in the years following 1789 (a tradition that continues into the present). 2011. By whatever means possible. the army should encourage the formation of political parties. soldiers clashed with demonstrators who were reluctant to go home. http://www. planning an election campaign. Disaster and dictatorship are not inevitable. As Le Bon understood." declared one protester. but if Egypt is to avoid either a coup d'etat or a return to mob rule. The dissatisfaction with the February revolution of 1917 led to the Bolshevik coup d'etat in October of that year. On Sunday and Monday. It's not remotely surprising that demonstrators keep returning to Tahrir Square after Mubarak's resignation. A letdown is inevitable. described as unemployed. the building of neighborhood watch groups and clean-up brigades—anything to prevent those unemployed men in Tahrir Square from going home. Feb.
Egypt's old Wafd and newer liberal and Daniel reform parties "may have a tough slog" reaching out. http://www. K2 Election Timing Continued focused diplomacy is critical to ensure credible elections. Elections now mean they gain control because they are already well organized. http://www. It has engaged in the hard work of quiet diplomacy to encourage and. more importantly. White said. the ruling Islamists' belief in God's sovereignty trumps political participation by the masses. that is why timing is everything. Reporter at USA TODAY. including regional organizations and the United Nations. The movement may already be the bestorganized opposition group because of a network of charities.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 20/148 Cross-X. which has observed 82 elections in 34 countries.htm) CJC Pipes. 2011.democracy/) CJC The Obama administration has shown a consistent preference for inclusive agreements among all significant factions on basic election principles.egypt. “Ideology shadows fight to rule the new Egypt”. 2/14/2011. And it has welcomed the growing role of domestic and international nongovernmental organizations willing and able to support the process. *****Links***** . The Islamist movement is "inherently anti-democratic. especially if not given enough time to organize. “Two vital steps on path to democracy in Egypt”. Radicals will use elections to gain power. Dorell – 2/14 (Oren Dorell. hospitals and aid programs for the poor." because leaders reject democratic laws that run counter to Islamic texts — but Islamists are willing to use elections to gain power. with an implementation strategy and timetable. Stremlau – 2/16 (John Stremlau is vice president for peace programs at the nonprofit Carter Center. they will foment a revolution along the lines of Iran's in 1979.usatoday.com Thursday File UQ Ext – Dip.cnn.com/news/world/2011-02-14-1Aegypt14_CV_N. sustain these agreements. says if radical Islamists come to power. In Iran. editor of the Middle East Forum. The group's grass-roots network is a source of power that liberals may have a hard time countering. Pipes said. to lend their support. while facilitating as many international partners as possible.com/2011/OPINION/02/15/stremlau. especially to Egypt's large lower class. February 16.
CNN Senior State Department Producer." said Jake Sullivan. but NO issue will currently take a back seat to our effort in Egypt in the near future. involvement in Iraq. economic and social reforms and respect for human rights that she pressed for in Qatar. That will take time as well as diplomatic dexterity. and she would like to support the president in advancing American values. And down the road. Rolling up her sleeves Yet no issue will likely demand more of Clinton's time in the near future than the political upheaval in Egypt. "She respects what the people had to do to go out in (Tahrir Square).com/2011/POLITICS/02/16/clinton. diplomacy?”. which has quickly become the first major foreign policy crisis for the Obama administration. The timing of withdraw would undermine near term focus on Egypt. "The secretary is going to roll up her sleeves.issues which remain close to her heart.html?iref=allsearch) CJC If the first six weeks of 2011 are any indicator. particularly when it comes to foreign aid. as a long list of foreign policy issues becomes the province of the State Department. spread like wildfire to Cairo and which are now permeating throughout the region -.S. regional involvement. “Can Clinton remake U." . In fact.sweep/index. Clinton will also need to work closely with allies about increasing pressure on Iran over its nuclear program.cnn. interests and security in a region that is going through real transformation." Mills said. On one hand. Their link turns do not assume the refocusing to the Egypt crisis. She is mindful of regional stability and wants to reassure other Middle East governments that the U. http://www. will not abandon important and longtime allies. she wants to stay true to the themes of political. with Karzai an unreliable partner. February 16. Labott – 2/16 (Elise Labott. for Clinton." But Clinton knows the push for democracy is fraught with risk. Clinton will be doing a lot more juggling. "She sees this as one of the most significant strategic projects of the Obama presidency. While Mubarak has left the political scene. In addition to moving forward with engaging North Korea in the coming months. It will largely fall to Clinton to advance the strategy that she and Holbrooke envisioned." talking to European and Arab allies about how the U. marrying the fragile and reversible military gains with a political process that includes international diplomacy. she and the State Department will assume full responsibility for U.com Thursday File A2: Link Turns: Timing – (A Must Read) Other issues will move forward diplomatically. can nurture and facilitate a military-led transition. 2011. It's a personal challenge that speaks to the dilemma she has faced since becoming secretary of state. And she must save the stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace talks from becoming a permanent casualty of recent events. and political reconciliation among the Taliban and other militant groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan. director of policy planning and deputy chief of staff. troops come home at the end of the year. the chapter on Egypt's march toward democracy is far from complete. "She feels the overwhelming weight of it.S.S. yearnings which were ignited in Tunisia. Clinton is said to have been in a "war-room mentality. when the impact is triggered in the short term. it is really the beginning.S. This link is a timing issue. Since Mubarak stepped down. when the remainder of U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 21/148 Cross-X. In the coming weeks Clinton will have to defend her smart power efforts before Republicans in Congress intent on taking an ax to President Obama's budget. The long-term is irrelevant.S. Progress in creating a credible Afghan government and sustainable economy has also been an uphill battle.
“Obama huddles with aides on Egypt”. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned U. ambassadors that the current crisis was part of a “tough road ahead” for U. 2011. more WikiLeaks revelations and pressure from Congress to cut the State Department’s budget. with what’s going on today.S.Focus US Diplomats are at the breaking point and barely able to keep up with the current situations on their plates. And how quickly that ground can shift under our feet. include the possibility of instability in other countries. she said. warned a gathering of U.com Thursday File 2NC Link Magnifier .Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 22/148 Cross-X.html) CJC As Obama kept close tabs on the deepening crisis. http://www. Thrush – 2/2 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico. diplomats the pitched street battles erupting in Cairo and elsewhere have pushed the country into “uncharted territory. recent events in Egypt and certainly in that broader region.S. “As we see.com/news/stories/0211/48700. February 2.” Clinton.” she added.S. who has become the administration’s public face during the crisis. They need all of the focus they have to deal with the Egyptian crisis. some of which we are only beginning to understand. diplomats.politico. “There are too many forces at work.” . (they) remind us all of how crucial it is to have top-notch leadership on the ground. The challenges.
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US credibility for diplomacy is hanging by a thread in the Middle East. Perception of US backing away again would crush any influence that we have. CBS News – 2/11 (Ken Millstone, Staff Reporter; “Diplomat: Egypt Dislikes Suleiman's "Slimy Background"; February 11, 2011; http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20031554503544.html) CJC Ambassador Edward Peck, a career diplomat who served in Egypt and Tunisia, said that Suleiman
in many ways takes an even harsher and more authoritarian view of power than Mubarak. "He's been involved in a number of things that the people of Egypt do not like," including being the CIA's point man for the rendition and torture of terror suspects in Egypt, Peck said. He said Suleiman has "kind of a slimy background." Mubarak ceded power not to Suleiman but to the Egyptian armed forces and it is not clear what Suleiman's eventual role will be, if any. Still, Suleiman is a former military and intelligence officer with close ties to the military power structure. He "is always going to be a little trickle of saliva" that could be slurped back up into power at any time, Peck said. With or without Suleiman, a transition to democracy is no certainty, Peck
"It just takes one or two generals to say, 'Hey I kind of like being in charge.' That's happened before." Peck suggested that the U.S. has strained its credibility with other Arab world leaders by its somewhat erratic response to the events in Egypt - seemingly shifting allegiance to whatever actor seemed to be in the lead. "We have a just a tattered thread in that part of the world of the respect and reliability that we used to think we enjoyed on a regular basis," Peck said.
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(_) Aid Package Link: A. And, Independently of influence over the Egyptian military, the US is negotiating an international aid package that would be critical to ensuring a smooth transition because the protests have gutted its economy. Richter – 2/14 (Paul Richter, Tribune Washington Bureau Reporter; “Obama administration seeks emergency financial package for Egypt”; Feb. 14, 2011; http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2011/02/14/1867987/obama-administration-seeksemergency.html) CJC Amid calls in Washington for sharp cuts in foreign aid, the Obama administration is seeking an emergency financial package for Egypt, fearing that further strains on its economy could thwart Cairo's fledgling reform effort almost before it begins. U.S. officials have been working international partners to seek pledges for a package, probably worth several hundred million dollars, as well as money to help build political parties and other democratic institutions, say U.S. and foreign diplomats. Public anxiety over Egypt's struggling economy, including high unemployment and rising prices, was one of the key drivers of an 18-day uprising that toppled former President Hosni Mubarak, who resigned on Friday. Now that Mubarak is gone, analysts say Egyptians may be overly optimistic in expecting rapid economic improvements. Michele Dunne, a Mideast specialist who has advised the Obama administration on Egypt in recent weeks, said the economy is "one of the greatest vulnerabilities for a country that's in a transition like this." The Egyptian finance ministry has estimated that the unrest cost the economy about $310 million a
WASHINGTON day, and some private analysts have estimated that investors have been withdrawing investment at a rate of about $1 billion a day. Annual economic growth of 5 percent was predicted for Egypt before the demonstrations; now the consensus is closer to 1 percent. Dunne, now with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said if Egyptians have unreasonable
expectations about economic opportunities and instead conditions worsen, "it could really sour relations between people" and the transitional government. U.S. officials, who have been consulting widely on Egypt in recent days, declined to discuss their aid goals in details, saying they are in the early stages of discussions. They said they expect international development banks may also play a part in the aid.
B. Economic aid package to Eygpt would give positive light to the US with the Egyptian population, undercutting Muslim Brotherhood influence and message they would use to gain control. Bryen – 2/11 (Shoshana Bryen is senior director for security policy at The Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs in Washington; “Egypt needs more U.S. aid, not less”; 2/11/11; http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0211/49384.html) CJC Two factors may force the Administration to reconsider the size and scope of the aid. First is the attitude of the Egyptian people toward the United States. Though there has been little overt antiAmericanism in the demonstrations, Egyptians are acutely aware that U.S. aid largely flows to the military — with little benefit to them. The Muslim Brotherhood, with its network of religious schools and social programs, has capitalized on the difference between U.S. military aid and religiously inspired social services. It is not surprising that a recent Pew survey shows Egyptians preferring Islamic
government to “those who would modernize the country,” by 59 to 27 percent, and attitudes toward Americans running nearly 4:1 negative. The demonstrations and looting during the protests have wreaked havoc on the
Egyptian economy and capital is expected to flow out as soon as the banks reopen. The answer to “how much” may be sent abroad no one knows, but estimates run into the hundreds of millions at a minimum. Emergency food and economic stabilization aid from America could help average Egyptians see the United States as a benefactor and remove one anti-American prop from the Muslim Brotherhood and from Iran. Second is what the Egyptian military has acquired over the years.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.com 25/148 Thursday File The U.S. permitted Egypt to buy systems that directly threaten Israel – Harpoon Block II anti-ship missiles, for example – with little opposition from Israel or its friends in Congress because of Mubarak’s commitment to the peace treaty. Should the Muslim Brotherhood take a commanding position in a multi-party interim government, an implacable enemy of both Israel and the United States will have at least some say in the use of those military assets. Elsewhere in
the region, Hezbollah never won a majority in any Lebanese election, but imposes its will on the Lebanese government by threat of force — and now has a say in the operation of the U.S.-supported Lebanese Armed Forces. In a similar situation,
Washington would have no choice but to suspend military aid and cooperation with Egypt — with the loss of benefits to the United States that implies.
they will chart a different course. a spokeswoman for Lady Catherine Ashton. trying to work out a common position on how to encourage democratic change in Egypt.S.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 26/148 Cross-X. must promote stability in countries such as Egypt or "we will pay a higher price later in crises that are allowed to simmer and boil over into conflicts. 2011. Yet the overthrow of Mubarak has been welcomed by Democrats and Republicans. it has bipartisan support.html) CJC The U. Richter – 2/14 (Paul Richter. perhaps through loans by the European Investment Bank.5 billion per year. “Obama administration seeks emergency financial package for Egypt”." said Stephen McInerney. on Monday and expressed her concern about proposed reductions for the State Department and aid programs. http://www. R-Ohio. the European Union's foreign affairs chief. in a said the United States was committed to offering aid that was needed by Egypt "to pursue a credible and orderly transition to democracy. President Barack Obama. said the EU is considering the possibility of aid. executive director of the Project on Middle East Democracy.com Thursday File Ext – Aid Link: A2 Aid Cuts Now Aid package will pass in the US despite calls for cuts in the Aid budget. Maja Kocijancic. Continued diplomacy is critical to building international support for the aid package. Feb. The Obama administration is trying to prevent Republicans from imposing steep cuts on foreign aid. The push for more aid comes at a difficult time for the United States and many allies. ." Clinton said.bellinghamherald. an EU international finance arm." The U. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton met with House Speaker John Boehner. Clinton said she hopes that as Congress considers "the national security and economic consequences of these cuts. statement last weekend. currently gives Egypt about $1. Europe and elsewhere. Tribune Washington Bureau Reporter.com/2011/02/14/1867987/obama-administration-seeksemergency. "I think they'll feel this cause is worth it." The aid discussions have come at a time when the administration has been reaching out to allies in the Middle East. who are already struggling with severe austerity budgets.S. and some analysts predict there will be bipartisan support for at least some increase in Egypt's aid. including by working with international partners to provide financial support. 14. most of it going to the Egyptian military.
Meanwhile. Strikes could add to mounting economic woes. . Banks said they won't reopen until Sunday. http://india. according to MENA. as labor strikes continued and school openings were delayed. WSJ 2/17 (Jay Solomon.wsj. " Treasury Calls for Scrutiny of Egypt ". The labor crisis has been the most formidable challenge for the country's new military leaders and threatens to pierce a fragile calm that has prevailed since political protests ended Friday after nearly three weeks.com/article/SB10001424052748703373404576148073209074728. 2/17/11. the official Egyptian state news agency.html) Egypt's new military rulers faced growing hurdles in their efforts to restore normalcy to the country. Egypt's stock exchange again delayed its opening. pushing it to Monday.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 27/148 Cross-X.com Thursday File Ext – Aid Link: Econ Spark Instability Egypt economic issues continued would spark another wave of instability. Matt Bradley. as employees protest poor wages and demand that bank leaders be prosecuted for alleged corruption.
no less than 4 percent of the nation's gross domestic product on defense. Senior Executive Service and principal director. http://www. a link exists between reform in the PRC and the U. on average. Obama's next proposed defense budget and Secretary of defense Robert M. The threat. when negotiating trade policy and burden-sharing with Japan. Australia released a defense white paper concerned primarily with the potential decline of U. pg. Office of the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Strategy.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 28/148 Cross-X. deter competitors. Obama has argued that America must "combine military power with strengthened diplomacy. Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of defense for Strategy.org/Research/Commentary/2009/06/The-importance-of-hard-power] MGM The problem here is not merely an overconfidence in the process of "talking" and trying to achieve "mutual understanding" .S. If our country allows its hard power to wane. of using the hard power of force to settle things. 6-12. Holmes. where America's ability to hedge against the growing ambitions of a rising China is being called into question by some of our key Asian allies. Similarly." Only by building a full-spectrum military force can America reassure its many friends and allies and count on their future support. An ally's reliance on U.S. Chiu & Dworken. The United States can succeed in advancing its priorities by diplomatic means only so long as it retains a "big stick. diplomatic words murmured whilst strolling serenely along "Obama Beach.as if diplomacy were merely about communications and eliminating hurt feelings.need to know they can count on the U. Unfortunately.8 The third . Recently.S. Gates' vision for "rebalancing" the military are drastically disconnected from the broad range of strategic priorities that a superpower like the United States must influence and achieve. That will require hard power. 1991 [Daniel and Jonathan. For America to be an effective leader and arbiter of the international order. Ph.com Thursday File 2NC Links – Plan Kills Coercive Diplomacy Obama needs to strengthen the military – the perception of declining commitments kills our diplomatic influence. coerce belligerent states. of the withdrawal of forces is present. strategy.heritage. military relationship (technology transfers and port visits) with that country.d. it is about the interaction and sometimes clash of hardened interests and ideologies. to intervene on their behalf any time. Mr. VP for Foreign and Defense Policy Studies and Director of the David Institute for International Studies at the Heritage Foundation. April.. it rests on the foundation of a powerful military. Center for Naval Analysis.and the rest of our allies .S. 2009 [Kim. not just soft. presence to deter a threat and the positive effects of assurance derived from deterrence can be used in diplomatic negotiations through linking the topic of negotiations to the continuation of that presence. 5]MGM political effect of presence is that it augments diplomatic influence." But since becoming president he has done little to demonstrate an actual commitment to forging a policy that combines America's military power with diplomatic strategies. This is already on display in the western Pacific Ocean. for example. our leaders will lose crucial diplomatic clout. “The Political Effects of U. It's this connection of hard to soft power that Mr.S. when need be.“The Importance of Hard Power”. though only indirectly related to presence. Mr. and you don't take them seriously by wishing away the necessity." Decrease in US military presence directly trades-off with diplomatic influence. it must be willing to maintain a world-class military. Rather. Plans. In what is becoming a signature trait of saying one thing and doing another. and Force Development AND **member of the Center for Naval Analyses assigned to III Marine Expeditionary Force. Obama appears not to understand. anywhere it has to. That requires resources: spending. The next British leader . explicit or implicit. Military Presence in the Asian-Pacific Region”. military primacy and its implications for Australian security and stability in the Asia-Pacific. These developments are anything but reassuring. as well as in talks on trade policy and political reform in the ROK. and defeat enemies does not rest on the strength of our political leaders' commitment to diplomacy. These are serious matters. The ability of the United States to reassure friends.
presence.S. 1991 [Daniel and Jonathan. and Force Development AND **member of the Center for Naval Analyses assigned to III Marine Expeditionary Force. There is a severe limitation to this effect. so does the value of U. at best. making the leverage in negotiations slim.S.com Thursday File Pulling out when threats are high wrecks our influence. Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of defense for Strategy. Plans. Center for Naval Analysis. pg. 23] MGM Note: This is a footnote explaining diplomatic presence and US military presence 8. strategy. Senior Executive Service and principal director. When the perceived threats decline. Chiu & Dworken.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 29/148 Cross-X. Military Presence in the Asian-Pacific Region”. “The Political Effects of U. April. . Office of the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Strategy.
and defeat enemies does not rest on the strength of our political leaders’ commitment to diplomacy. and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs (1988-89) among other policy positions in the Defense Department dating to 1981. solemnly made. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. approximately five thousand facilities spread all over the country and the world. 2006 [Lincoln. and funding allotted to his department. it rests on the foundation of a powerful military. A global posture realignment that involves moving large numbers of those sentries and their weapons inevitably begs the most urgent of security questions. http://s3. that America is committed—via the North Atlantic Treaty. the fielding of powerful and complex weapons systems.edu/Publications/Naval-War-CollegePress/Newport-Papers/Documents/26-pdf.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 30/148 Cross-X. Holmes. VP for Foreign and Defense Policy Studies and Director of the David Institute for International Studies at the Heritage Foundation. excites foreign . Thailand.com/thf_media/2009/pdf/sr0052. and the promulgation of defense and security strategies to prepare for and deter threats to the national interest. Australia released a defense White Paper that is concerned primarily with the potential decline of U.com Thursday File Link – General Decreasing military deployments kills diplomatic influence. 2009 (Kim Holmes. Bloomfield. this initiative is inescapably.S. military primacy and the implications that this decline would have for Australian security and stability in the Asia–Pacific. This is already on display in the western Pacific Ocean. political in terms of its effect on the rest of the world. “Sustaining American Leadership with Military Power”. and Australia— to come to their defense in extremis.S. Bloomfield previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (1992-93).pdf) The consequences of hard-power atrophy will be a direct deterioration of America’s diplomatic clout. and Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs from 2001-2005.amazonaws. “Reposturing the Force: U.A..D. To think otherwise would be to overlook the belief. Former US Special Envoy for Man-Portable Air Defense Systems Threat Reduction. 6-1-2009. Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs (1991-92).usnwc. assets. this massive exercise in managerial housekeeping by the secretary of defense cannot be viewed exclusively as one cabinet executive’s effort to make more productive use of the people. http://www. the Philippines. resident in allied populations in more than fifty countries by latest count. and bilateral security treaties with Japan.d. deter competitors. Ph. the Rio Treaty. At the same time. streamlining. The Global Defense Posture Review (GDPR) is such an undertaking. and an annual budget now surpassing $400 billion. Only by building a full-spectrum military force can America reassure its many friends and allies and count on their future support. Only by retaining a “big stick” can the United States succeed in advancing its diplomatic priorities. Rarely to be found among these major tasks will be any large-scale updating. indeed overwhelmingly. coerce belligerent states. He graduated from Harvard College and received a M. For all the calculations of greater efficiency and utility that commend the idea of reconfiguring America’s global military footprint.S. Mr. Korea. and the sight of U. armed forces standing the watch in almost every latitude and time zone has calmed regional rivalries and dissuaded armed escalations for sixty years. or reconfiguration of an organizational empire that includes well over two million soldiers and civilians. Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century. Recently.” Chapter 3: Politics and Diplomacy of the Global Defense Posture Review. The ability of the United States to reassure friends. These are national commitments. they will of course cite the prosecution of wars both hot and cold.aspx] An Ambitious Concept When historians look back on the Defense Department’s biggest undertakings during its first six decades of existence. where America’s ability to hedge against the growing ambitions of a rising China is being called into question by some of our key Asian allies.L. These developments are anything but reassuring. Reducing military presence prompts State Department intervention – focuses diplomatic efforts on minimizing effects of the aff.
forces outside Still. Former US Special Envoy for Man-Portable Air Defense Systems Threat Reduction. Big Change. of perturbing the very stability that America’s global military presence is meant to ensure.” Chapter 3: Politics and Diplomacy of the Global Defense Posture Review. Mr. particularly in Asia. and land routes from one region to the next.S. indeed opposition. and reposition the U. even when the nature and location of the crisis had not been foreseen. and therefore runs the risk. globally managed force posture would optimize the flow of combat power along sea. braving the predictable resistance of settled constituencies from one end of the globe to the other. The concern was not imaginary. policy bureaucracy as a whole. Such a concept would best allow future presidents to position viable military options to employ anywhere in response to a sudden danger on the shortest of notice. and the allied governments themselves. depending on how the matter is handled.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. journalists. there were varying perceptions about whether the advertised merits of particular changes under the Global Defense Posture Review would indeed redound to the long-term security benefit of the United States. Bloomfield.usnwc.S. concerns in the State Department that some Department of Defense (DoD) officials. and capabilities to fulfill those commitments. and officials need to be not simply told but persuaded that America’s commitments to them.edu/Publications/Naval-War-CollegePress/Newport-Papers/Documents/26-pdf. is noteworthy.S. In at least one country DoD doggedly sought to announce and implement a drawdown of military assets against that ally’s wishes and with an evident relish that required diplomatic damage control and led the president to withhold to himself the withdrawal decision. are no longer usefully measured by numbers of troops. the decision to embark on a global realignment was the president’s to make. That he did it during wartime is extraordinary. whose reaction to any disturbance of the diplomatic status quo might be expected to be one of resistance to change. An Ambitious Concept The idea that U.S.A.D. his determination to rethink. to have a clear and compelling vision of how the new global defense posture—embracing U. European and Asian foreign-policy experts. http://www. Big Decision: Getting to “Yes” What with the profound implications of a posture change for allied countries hosting U.S. their facilities.S. directly to the point of engagement. bases or consolidated in other locales. never mind foreign policy bureaucrats. certainly none of his predecessors seriously attempted it. would inevitably make their voices heard before the Department of Defense’s new scheme based on geographic convenience and logistical efficiency could supplant longstanding basing patterns in foreign localities. air. and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs (1988-89) among other policy positions in the Defense Department dating to 1981. by their manner. and it embodied major foreign policy equities. . Within the U. On the other hand. That Mr. and their support structure should be physically positioned according to the logic of global geography is very appealing. The foreign press has focused on troops scheduled to be pulled back to U. Rumsfeld took on this monumental management task. forces and the state of America’s diplomatic relations with them. Over the long term. redesign. might aggravate rather than defuse foreign anxieties were also not entirely misplaced. There remains a need for allies. One could well imagine the Pentagon’s potential misgivings about placing this hugely ambitious venture at the mercy of other departments. Bloomfield previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (1992-93). there were indeed some in the State Department who wanted nothing more than for the initiative to go away and who feared damage to alliances if it went forward. global defense posture could profit the nation’s security. a well-executed streamlining of the U. even to discussing prospective force reductions with allied countries. Of all of Donald Rumsfeld’s actions during his headline-filled second tenure as secretary of defense. military force units. an efficiently designed.S.aspx] a major change in defense doctrine and practice requires a significant public diplomacy effort if it is to be accepted abroad. 2006 [Lincoln. military’s posture at home and abroad according to a rational design reflecting contemporary security conditions should stand as a positive mark in his legacy. and Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs from 2001-2005. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. without overly taxing the system.S. if not in monetary terms certainly in the ability of a finite force structure to deliver the maximum military benefit through the greater efficiencies and capabilities of the new global posture. Conceptually. He graduated from Harvard College and received a M. their equipment. The plan requires significant diplomatic resources to reassure allies. such concerns were not limited to experienced regional specialists in the State Department. The Department of State. “Reposturing the Force: U. Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs (1991-92).com 31/148 Thursday File anxieties in many quarters. Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century.L.
” The words were carefully chosen. Many in Congress. split up and barnstormed a total of twelve European capitals. who approved it to proceed to public rollout and consultation with other governments. emphasizing the need to move past a World War II–era basing structure. By the fall of 2003. From there the issue went to the president. It must not be a fait accompli imposed on allies from Washington.L. which developed a final list of recommended domestic base closures during 2005. were of course part of the GDPR picture. High-level administration visitors to Asian capitals. the White House released President George Bush’s statement announcing the new initiative. already undergoing very careful. as the host governments in each case were deeply involved in discussions about potential adjustments.S. who visited Canberra. and Singapore. mobility. Secretary Powell said he thought the briefing had misstated the facts about European bases being obsolete because of their relevance to World War II. had told the administration not to start that process until it had first scrubbed the overseas basing system for other ways to streamline the global footprint. comprehensive posture reviews on a bilateral basis. following which these two officials. This was followed within days by a joint appearance at the North Atlantic Council by Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Marc Grossman and Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Douglas Feith. none of the recommended changes in overseas American presence was yet decided. Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century.” Chapter 3: Politics and Diplomacy of the Global Defense Posture Review. make possible this assurance.D. all eyes turned to the secretary of state. Bloomfield previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (1992-93). allies. and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs (1988-89) among other policy positions in the Defense Department dating to 1981. When the principals finally engaged at the White House. there was also a temptation. Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs (1991-92). Precision strike. this review was “ongoing. Canberra. among other advances. Major allies Japan and Korea. Empirical proof. His point was effectively made—of course we needed to update and rationalize our force posture. that in some locations— including German facilities under his command in the 1980s—the bases dated all the way back to the Franco-Prussian War. backed by respective interagency delegations. and stealth. and silence pervaded the room. time was running short if GDPR decisions were to be in hand for the BRAC analytical work that was to commence in early 2004. however. Secretaries Powell and Rumsfeld launched diplomatic consultations on the GDPR at the December 2003 NATO ministerial meetings. one that won quick endorsement from DoD and the interagency realm—that this initiative had to be conducted in full consultation with affected governments around the world. “Reposturing the Force: U. the administration found itself in consensus that the GDPR was timely. and asked his aides to brief the rationale for this transformational initiative.com 32/148 Thursday File as well as within their borders—will ensure their security as before. the United States will intensify our consultations with the Congress and our friends. such as Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage. Other agencies offered their comments.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. and when they had finished. In March 2004 Under Secretary Feith led a delegation (including the author) that briefed this initiative in Beijing. Beijing. to ask “Why now?” and put it off for another day. Secretary Powell pledged his and the State Department’s support and assistance to the Global Defense Posture Review under one condition. Secretary of State Colin Powell understood DoD’s concern that the initiative could be subjected to death by a thousand cuts. deadpan.aspx] Since this large. What finally forced the issue was the link between prospective overseas withdrawals of military assets and units and the planned round of the Base Closure and Realignment (BRAC) Commission. Bloomfield. and Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs from 2001-2005.usnwc. Mr. which said in part: “Beginning today. The secretary continued.” and consultations were to be integral to his decision process. A few hearts stopped. and deserving of priority support subject to the president’s approval.A. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. With that pithy intervention by Secretary Powell. and partners overseas on our ongoing review of our overseas force posture.edu/Publications/Naval-War-CollegePress/Newport-Papers/Documents/26-pdf. By mid2003. http://www. He graduated from Harvard College and received a M. with the DoD worldwide realignment plan finally ready for top-level interagency consideration. worthy. From the president’s perspective. difficult project was not driven by exigencies of current military operations. 2006 [Lincoln. while the author made a side trip to Manila for the same purpose. there was no requirement for a special briefing to either. understandably fearful of losing home-district bases under BRAC. articulated his concept. Rolling Out the Initiative On 25 November 2003. whenever the issue was raised within senior interagency circles. and Tokyo . Former US Special Envoy for Man-Portable Air Defense Systems Threat Reduction. Specific force posture changes would require presidential approval at a later stage. Secretary Rumsfeld rolled out his map.
and How Might One Be Utilized In Iraq?”.usnwc. http://www.edu/Publications/Naval-War-CollegePress/Newport-Papers/Documents/26-pdf.D. “Michael Hastings Interview Transcript. or timetables. regardless of the urgency. you could fit every foreign service officer on an aircraft carrier. More ev – US will have to reassure allies. there’s more people in the Army band than there are foreign service officers. but I appreciate your time and we’ll talk again soon. that all these consultations in Europe and Asia divulged specifics on planned movements and locations of units. As this was truly a global initiative. “Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA): What Is It. Bloomfield. 6-26-2010 [Michael. military network so as to reflect the considerable changes over several decades in the way American soldiers. Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century.” http://www. You know.com/blog/2010/06/26/michael-hastings-interview-transcript/] there’s a larger kind of structural issue here about – you just compare the DOD budget to the State Department budget. the administration provided briefing points for ambassadors to scores of countries. none of this was included in the initial briefings.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. Former US Special Envoy for Man-Portable Air Defense Systems Threat Reduction. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. and they should take their fair share of blame. Deputy Secretary Armitage was able to calm negative foreign press speculation by. however. You know. readily responded to public and official queries about GDPR. The United States will do well to work out with allied governments modalities to satisfy host countries’ legitimate needs for information and consent. the two are one. And. in fact.S. European governments will do well to revisit their ability to act immediately on time-sensitive intelligence.S.aspx] As the GDPR moves toward the implementation phase.edu/marshall/crsreports/crsdocuments/RL34531_06162008. Africa. Mr. 6/16. “Reposturing the Force: U. South Asia.umaryland. the EU or their parliaments. You know. you look at every foreign service officer – you know. And I think that translates Hastings: I think into the fact that a lot of the time just the leaders get the blame for all the wars. Every geographic combatant commander’s area of responsibility was slated to experience change. $600 billion to $50 billion. Rolling Stone. You know. platforms. Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs (1991-92). 2009 [Chuck.pdf] . it will serve the United States and its traditional allies best if the sides come to a mutual understanding on how to meet the needs of all.L.antiwar. This is not to say. for example. and Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs from 2001-2005. and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs (1988-89) among other policy positions in the Defense Department dating to 1981. respectively. Mason.A. Persuading allies that military operations had evolved over time was not difficult. State Department is stretched thin and military-diplomatic issues are inextricably linked. closure of facilities. Bloomfield previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (1992-93). so you look like at just the sort of decay of the State Department and basically our foreign policy has become our defense policy. the approach was to explain the merits of rationalizing the global U. http://www. the UN. We’re packing up here and so I’ve got to take off. Hastings. assuring the Australian public that the United States did not seek to base combat units in Australia. and technologies now operated. Also – negotiating SOFAs requires time and resources.com 33/148 Thursday File during the winter of 2003–2004. even when there is no formal mandate from NATO. Instead. freelance writer.law. 2006 [Lincoln. The recent examples of relatively lean forces dislodging the Taliban regime from Kabul and then the Saddam Hussein regime from Baghdad spoke volumes about conceptual leaps forward in the military arts by the United States since World War II. carried to those regions the message that others had already given to Europe and Asia. He graduated from Harvard College and received a M. but I think we also have to start looking at the military leaders in a much more critical way than they’re accustomed to be looked at. and Latin America. indeed since Vietnam. and the State Department’s regional assistant secretaries for Near East. as American military power is staged from their territories in future crises.” Chapter 3: Politics and Diplomacy of the Global Defense Posture Review.
.e... the commanding officer of the U. 32 Fordham Int'l L. and that no person whose presence in the United States is deemed prejudicial to its safety or security shall be permitted to enter or remain in the United States. . Constitution. a SOFA is specific to an individual country and is in the form of an executive agreement. or alters the right of the United States to safeguard its own security by excluding or removing persons whose presence in the United States is deemed prejudicial to its safety or security. This increase in the supply of counterproliferation is a public good that in some measure offsets the cost to other states of accepting their less-preferred counterproliferation rules. PSI's purpose is to enforce international nonproliferation obligations by making it more difficult to acquire sensitive technology. every party to a treaty exercises a veto over amendments.. holding expected levels of compliance constant.. . . which has the effect of reducing the reputational sanction for violating the soft law rule (because not all states will see a violation of the one as a violation of the other)... Jurisprudence and Social Policy. J. abridges. (3) if the commanding officer believes there is danger that the servicemember will not be protected because of the absence or denial of constitutional rights the accused would receive in the United States. establishing a soft law regime recognizes that the benefits to permitting those states to update legal rules over time outweighs the costs in terms of an opportunistic updating of such rules. the cost to the United States of trade sanctions from a minor trading partner may be small compared with the benefits of such a violation because of the relative importance of the trading relationship to each state.S. Institute for Global Conflict and Cooperation and the National Science Foundation. February 2009. Ph. 1970. in which rules change over time to account flexibility can enhance global welfare over time. .. by permitting adjustment of the legal rules and expectations. Public Policy and Nuclear Threats Fellow. armed forces in that state shall review the laws of the receiving state with reference to the procedural safeguards of the U. the commanding officer shall request that the receiving state waive its jurisdiction. University of California. flexibility-enhancing devices are available to states to promote agreement in situations in which the parties might otherwise be unable to reach an accord. have been deterred by a hard regime.. material. subject to reservations. treaties) often exacerbate the difficulties with renegotiation because unless a treaty provides otherwise. Because states are likely to have ex ante expectations about who the first movers will be.10 Renegotiating treaties like SOFAs to withdraw troops take large amounts of diplomatic capital because many parties have veto power. . 888. Berkeley School of Law. Berkeley..com Thursday File With the exception of the multilateral SOFA among the United States and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries. . as well as opportunistic violations of the soft regime that could for new conditions. identify the need for a SOFA with a particular country and negotiate the terms of the agreement. The resolution included a statement that nothing in the Agreement diminishes. and equipment.9 The Senate reservations to the NATO SOFA include four conditions: (1) the criminal jurisdiction provisions contained in Article VII of the agreement do not constitute a precedent for future agreements.. (2) when a servicemember is to be tried by authorities in a receiving state...J. ... Meyer Fellow Institue for Global Conflict 2009 (Timothy.6 The Department of State and the Department of Defense. However.. “SOFT LAW AS DELEGATION”. Fordham University School of Law Fordham International Law Journal. sought to make India an exception to the NSG rules that transfers can only be made to non-nuclear weapons states that have accepted safeguards on all of their nuclear operations (India. like the nuclear weapons states. . perceptions about the relationship between the two rules may vary.D. From an evolutionary standpoint. Because the rule prohibiting the transfer of X is not directly binding.D.. and.. Flexibility as a Device to Promote Agreement Other scholars have suggested that a variety of . University of California. Lexis) Binding international agreements (i. The U. working together.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 34/148 Cross-X.S..S.8 The Senate approved ratification of the NATO SOFA on March 19.. as an export control regime. The NATO SOFA7 is the only SOFA that was concluded as part of a treaty. would not put safeguards on its military nuclear operations).. First. . however. (4) a representative of the United States be appointed to attend the trial of any servicemember being tried by the receiving state and act to protect the constitutional rights of the servicemember.
S. This QDR extensive engagement with key stakeholders. these were shared with and reviewed by a wide range of experts.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 35/148 Cross-X. interests. Quadrennial Homeland Security Review. February 1. As the QDR generated insights and interim findings. QDR staff consulted with and briefed congressional staff as well as representatives of allied and other governments. Over the course of the review. as well as the Intelligence Community. The Department is working to help build a whole-of-government approach to the provision of security assistance. The Quadrennial Defense Review in 2010 (QDR Report prepared for Congress. capabilities. For example. Secretary of Defense.S. key missions. government to benefited from further the kind of integrated security approaches long advocated by the President. strengthening our technology and industrial bases to facilitate innovation. as they undertook their Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review. and Quadrennial Intelligence Community Review respectively. defense posture that emphasizes cooperation with allies and partners and retailoring military forces. interests while taking care of our people is the imperative to reform how it does business. the QDR highlights the importance of revitalizing defense relationships with allies and partners in key regions. and crafting a strategic approach to climate and energy challenges. DoD officials also engaged with their counterparts elsewhere in the U. both within DoD and beyond. Defense leaders and staff worked closely with the Departments of State and Homeland Security. . Given the complex security environment and the range of missions. 2010) Part of the Department’s obligation to defend and advance U. sharing insights regarding analysis. and defense agreements across regions. An important element of revitalizing key relationships is the need to craft an approach to the U. capabilities.com Thursday File Link – Military Change Military reforms and changes to our SQ policy require tons of diplomatic capital – consultation and reviews will happen at all levels of government.S.S. and plans in overlapping issue areas. and institutional reforms necessary to protect and advance U. facilities. improving our defense acquisition and logistics processes to better support our personnel in harm’s way. and Secretary of State.
2009 [Henry. Congress terminated an American role even after all our troops had. Since the Taliban. Hence the defeat of Al Qaeda and radical Islamic jihad should be the dominant priority. Kissinger.com Thursday File Link – Afghanistan Withdrawal requires huge diplomatic efforts to reassure stakeholders in the region. to decrease the present deployment with a new strategy. in return for not challenging the Taliban in the governance of Afghanistan. been withdrawn for two years. not as a way to avoid it. President Obama. But to win in Afghanistan we’ll need help from its powerful neighbors” Lexis] The demand for an exit strategy is. A seemingly unavoidable paradox emerges. the guerrillas often ceded control of the territory during the day and returned at night to prevent political stabilization. we produced another motive for civil war. it can be relegated to being a secondary target. cooperation with the Taliban in the governance of Afghanistan. even that may not permit troop withdrawals. David Petraeus. Even Alexander the Great only passed through. though as we have seen in Korea. not a global. at a minimum. for it is highly improbable that the civic actions on which our policies are based could be carried out in areas controlled by the Taliban. if at all. abandoning the strategy proposed by General McChrystal and endorsed by Gen. to be given a broader context with particular emphasis on the political environment.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 36/148 Cross-X. have all been recently appointed by the Obama administration. A sudden reversal of American policy would fundamentally affect domestic stability in Pakistan by freeing the Qaeda forces along the Afghan border for even deeper incursions into Pakistan. In Vietnam. “More troops is a start. Every guerrilla war raises the challenge of how to define military objectives. Therefore.S. it was the Taliban which provided bases for Al Qaeda in the first place. A negotiation with the group might isolate Al Qaeda and lead to its defeat. The domestic debate generates the pressure for diplomatic compromise. however. a metaphor for withdrawal. and recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize. But those occurred after the surge. and loss of confidence in American reliability. threat. where American troops have remained since 1953. to take over. It would also imply the partition of Afghanistan along functional lines. The second option--offered as an alternative--would shrink the current mission by focusing on counter-terrorism rather than counterinsurgency. ever pacified the entire country. Newsweek. It remains to be seen to what extent the achievements of the surge in Iraq will be sustained there politically. implying three options: to continue the present deployment and abandon the McChrystal strategy. by following the received counterinsurgency playbook too literally. or to increase the existing deployment with a strategy focused on the security of the population. in turn. After all. the probable target should a collapse in Afghanistan give jihad an even greater impetus. 10-12. in fact. No outside force has. threatening domestic chaos. This theory seems to me to be too clever by half. control of 75 percent of the territory 100 percent of the time is more important than controlling 100 percent of the territory 75 percent of the time. That. Al Qaeda and the Taliban are unlikely to be able to be separated so neatly geographically. and withdrawal that is not accompanied by a willingness to sustain the outcome amounts to abandonment. extrication becomes his principal objective. American political scientist. This is not to exclude the possibility of defections from the Taliban as occurred from Al Qaeda in Iraq's Anbar province. in guerrilla war. Rejecting their recommendations would be a triumph of domestic politics over strategic judgment. Afghanistan has been governed. implies a surge testing the patience of the American public. A decision not to increase current force levels involves. To adopt such a course is a disguised way of retreating from Afghanistan altogether. or a more effective way to sustain it. regardless of its ideological coloration and perhaps even its efficiency. with our training. after a while. The most unambiguous form of exit strategy is victory. ultimately deeper American involvement. In short. That is likely to be the fate of any central government in Kabul. The military strategy proposed by Generals McChrystal and Petraeus needs. will be which part of Afghan territory can be effectively controlled in terms of these criteria. proclaimed Afghanistan a necessary war. it would be widely interpreted as the first step toward withdrawal. is a local. served as National Security Advisor and later concurrently as Secretary of State in the administrations of Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford. and then protect the population until that government's own forces are able. The prospects of world order will be greatly affected by whether our strategy comes to be perceived as a retreat from the region. therefore. of course. Military strategy is traditionally defined by control of the maximum amount of territory. he has shown considerable courage in implementing his promise to increase our forces in Afghanistan and to pursue the war more energetically. As president. each with outstanding qualifications. In Vietnam. This is of particular relevance to Afghanistan. since the Mongol invasion. In the past. It would be ironic if. The argument would be that the overriding American strategic objective in Afghanistan is to prevent the country from turning once again into a base for international terrorism. any attempt to endow the central government with overriding authority has been resisted by some established local rulers. by a coalition of local feudal or semifeudal rulers. Is that paradox soluble? The prevailing strategy in Afghanistan is based on the classic anti-insurrection doctrine: to build a central government. The request for more forces by General McChrystal states explicitly that his existing forces are inadequate for this mission. commit it to the improvement of the lives of its people. It would draw us into a numbers game without definable criteria. fundamental . A key strategic issue. the reversal of a process introduced with sweeping visions by two administrations may lead to chaos. But the strategy of the guerrilla--described by Mao--is to draw the adversary into a morass of popular resistance in which. It would raise the most serious questions about American steadiness in India. diplomat. multiethnic society. according to this view. Those in the chain of command in Afghanistan. as a candidate. Even so-called realists--like me-would gag at a tacit U. Yet the fanaticism that motivates guerrillas--not to speak of suicide bombers--does not allow for compromise unless they face defeat or exhaustion. Can a civil society be built on a national basis in a country which is neither a nation nor a state? In a partly feudal.
China by fundamentalist Shiite jihadists in Xinjiang.which include U. while 25% said the country had made the wrong decision. no other country had the combination of resources or national interest required.S.S.” http://www.S.civilians/. 2008 [Barbara Starr. the control from Kabul may be tenuous and its structure less than ideal. peace efforts in Iraq. India by general jihadism and specific terror groups. our credibility as a mobilizer of international coalitions when crises are reached and if we don't succeed and get it right in Afghanistan -.cnn.htm] But the independent panel's report calls for more. Answering a Pew Research Center question from January. Forbes. but it was more than some of Obama's anti-war supporters would have liked. it's going to be a lot harder to convince others to work with us to get it right in Iraq.S. even Iran by the fundamentalist Sunni Taliban. Russia. those responses were 69% .com Thursday File social reform is a long process. and NATO troops. in many respects. If we can't get it right in Afghanistan. support for the mission remains robust. For the foreseeable future. foreign policy and will undermine the global position of Washington as a peacekeeper. once the decision was taken. http://www. I'll suggest as well is our ability to look forward to the kind of exit from Iraq that we as Americans would want to achieve at a certain point. GlobalSecurity.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 37/148 Cross-X.000 troops Last week. Krastev. our credibility as a warrior against terror. CNN. “Sources: Cell phone images alter course of Afghan probe“. Concurrently.org/military/library/news/2003/06/mil-030620-rfel-161133. The council also asked that the ministry es demand After the the international forces halt airstrikes on civilian targets. there was no alternative to America's leading the effort. India. 9-8] Afghan government concluded its investigation. A major effort is needed to encourage such an evolution. Policy failure will devastate US negotiating credibility. On August 25. The president also ordered a review of policies in Afghanistan to be completed before April's NATO summit." Wisner said. Iran.html) Obama authorized sending another 17. so far. More emphasis needs to be given to regional efforts and regional militia.: Panel Urges Increased Support For Afghan Government.these points of credibility are all at issue.S. What does the public have to say about the situation in Afghanistan? Is public opinion turning against the "good" war? Can we expect help from our European allies? And what do Afghans have to say about conditions on the ground? U. troops to Afghanistan to "stabilize a deteriorating situation.S. made the right decision to use military force there.org.forbes. Russia by unrest in the Muslim south. China. Withdrawal requires SOFA negotiations. In all previous American ground-combat efforts. more than we are by the emergence of a base for international terrorism: Pakistan by Al Qaeda. Wisner drew a parallel between the current situation in Afghanistan and U.S. and NATO command there. our credibility as a force for stability. “War In Afghanistan”. Afghanistan's Council of Ministers called on the Defense and Foreign Affairs ministries to start negotiating a "status of forces" agreement with international forces -.000 U. http://www. This would also enhance our political flexibility. 64% of respondents said the U. "Our credibility as a peacekeeper.globalsecurity. Each is threatened in one way or another and.com/2009/02/21/war-afghanistan-troops-opinions-columnists_obama. 2003 [Nikola. “U. The special aspect of Afghanistan is that it has powerful neighbors or near neighbors--Pakistan. 23 February. perhaps unrelatable to the rhythm of our electoral processes. as well as house searches not coordinated with Afghan authorities and the illegal detention of civilians.S. a serious diplomatic effort is needed to address the major anomaly of the Afghan war. to stand more or less aloof. Each has chosen." The deployment fell short of the 30. Each has substantial capacities for defending its interests.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/09/08/afghan. President Barack requested by General David McKiernan. Pulling troops out of Afghanistan will delay other priorities – Afghanistan wants us to stay and will prolong negotiations Bowman 9 (Karlyn. ministers demanded a review of international troops within its borders. It says any further security deterioration in Afghanistan will have far-reaching implications for U. And with them. who heads the U. In January 2006. where he is expected to ask allies for more help.
about helping train the Afghan police forces or combat troops.. said coalition forces should withdraw only after security has been restored. though. respectively. wanted to increase U. In a December 2008 CNN/Opinion Research Corp. 18% of Afghans fourth survey of opinion of Afghans. military presence. in answer to another question. was winning in Afghanistan. military forces in their country. while 44% wanted to cut the numbers. by August 2008. slightly fewer--28% and 29%. When asked about conducting combat operations against the Taliban. So when it comes to getting additional combat support from Europe. war is necessary to obtain justice. Hamid Karzai (83% deemed him excellent or good in 2005. (Drug traffickers were a distant second. Fifty-eight percent of Afghans said the greatest danger their country faces is the resurgence of the Taliban. Transatlantic Trends found that more than 70% of respondents in the five European countries with the most troops in Afghanistan supported providing security for economic reconstruction projects and for helping to stem narcotics production. 36% said the U. Questions about troop levels asked by three major U. should increase the number of troops in Afghanistan. pollsters in mid January show that around one-third of Americans believe the U. nearly half of Democrats surveyed (48%) wanted to reduce U. They were less enthusiastic.S.S. at 13%. A strong plurality. In Pew's January 2009 poll. 30% of Europeans agreed that "under some conditions. Obama's popularity on the continent is unlikely to trump its residents' pacifism. In its ABC News.S. In Pew's poll. the 2007 Transatlantic Trends/German Marshall Fund survey found 64% of Europeans supported international reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan. In a March 2003 CBS News/New York Times poll. In CBS News/New York Times and ABC News/Washington Post polls. government (68% called it excellent or good in 2005.) Sixty-three percent support the presence of U.S. Americans were more positive about the military effort in Iraq than they were about that in Afghanistan. 60% said it was not.S. and NATO/ISAF troops in their country. survey question. with the BBC and ARD German TV. just 30% of Europeans expressed support. however. 32% do now).S. found a sharp deterioration in views of Afghanistan's president. and the U.com Thursday File and 20%.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 38/148 Cross-X. 52% do now). a figure down from 78% in 2006.S. In another question. respectively--said the number should be decreased. views about how the war is going have deteriorated. In Europe. 76% said it was going very or somewhat well for the U. only 28% gave that response. In the same poll. At the same time. .S." Comment On This Story In 2008.
Bloomfield.D. an efficiently designed. Such a concept would best allow future presidents to position viable military options to employ anywhere in response to a sudden danger on the shortest of notice. even when the nature and location of the crisis had not been foreseen. depending on how the matter is handled. and Australia— to come to their defense in extremis. resident in allied populations in more than fifty countries by latest count. Big Change. and an annual budget now surpassing $400 billion. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy.L.S. armed forces standing the watch in almost every latitude and time zone has calmed regional rivalries and dissuaded armed escalations for sixty years. Over the long term.edu/Publications/Naval-War-CollegePress/Newport-Papers/Documents/26-pdf. air. At the same time. if not in monetary terms certainly in the ability of a finite force structure to deliver the maximum military benefit through the greater efficiencies and capabilities of the new global posture. and reposition the U. braving the predictable resistance of settled constituencies from one end of the globe to the other.S. and Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs from 2001-2005. The Department of State.S. and their support structure should be physically positioned according to the logic of global geography is very appealing. The Global Defense Posture Review (GDPR) is such an undertaking. Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs (1991-92). One could well imagine the Pentagon’s potential misgivings about placing this hugely ambitious venture at the mercy of other departments. A global posture realignment that involves moving large numbers of those sentries and their weapons inevitably begs the most urgent of security questions. this massive exercise in managerial housekeeping by the secretary of defense cannot be viewed exclusively as one cabinet executive’s effort to make more productive use of the people. and the allied governments themselves. global defense posture could profit the nation’s security. Conceptually. forces and the state of America’s diplomatic relations with them.S. Rumsfeld took on this monumental management task. and the sight of U. or reconfiguration of an organizational empire that includes well over two million soldiers and civilians.aspx] An Ambitious Concept When historians look back on the Defense Department’s biggest undertakings during its first six decades of existence. solemnly made. and therefore runs the risk. and land routes from one region to the next. and it embodied major foreign policy equities. http://www. and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs (1988-89) among other policy positions in the Defense Department dating to 1981. streamlining. Rarely to be found among these major tasks will be any large-scale updating.usnwc. that America is committed—via the North Atlantic Treaty. and the promulgation of defense and security strategies to prepare for and deter threats to the national interest.” Chapter 3: Politics and Diplomacy of the Global Defense Posture Review. the Rio Treaty. certainly none of his predecessors seriously attempted it. “Reposturing the Force: U. is noteworthy. this initiative is inescapably. his determination to rethink. military’s posture at home and abroad according to a rational design reflecting contemporary security conditions should stand as a positive mark in his legacy. their facilities. Korea. Thailand. their equipment. indeed overwhelmingly. the decision to embark on a global realignment was the president’s to make. military force units. would inevitably make their voices heard before the Department of Defense’s new scheme based on geographic convenience and logistical efficiency could supplant longstanding basing patterns in foreign localities. To think otherwise would be to overlook the belief. never mind foreign policy . Former US Special Envoy for Man-Portable Air Defense Systems Threat Reduction. political in terms of its effect on the rest of the world. the Philippines. a well-executed streamlining of the U.S. He graduated from Harvard College and received a M. Bloomfield previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (1992-93). That Mr. These are national commitments. approximately five thousand facilities spread all over the country and the world. and funding allotted to his department. 2006 [Lincoln. directly to the point of engagement. globally managed force posture would optimize the flow of combat power along sea.S. That he did it during wartime is extraordinary. Of all of Donald Rumsfeld’s actions during his headline-filled second tenure as secretary of defense. assets. the fielding of powerful and complex weapons systems. An Ambitious Concept The idea that U. and bilateral security treaties with Japan. redesign. Mr.A.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 39/148 Cross-X. Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century. excites foreign anxieties in many quarters. Big Decision: Getting to “Yes” What with the profound implications of a posture change for allied countries hosting U.com Thursday File Links – Asia Reducing military presence prompts State Department intervention – focuses diplomatic efforts on minimizing effects of the aff. For all the calculations of greater efficiency and utility that commend the idea of reconfiguring America’s global military footprint. of perturbing the very stability that America’s global military presence is meant to ensure. they will of course cite the prosecution of wars both hot and cold. without overly taxing the system.
US long-term security. by their manner. It is even good for the Chinese themselves.” http://www. Taipei Times. . The future of US alliances and. Within the U. The Obama administration needs to consider the full range of policy decisions and diplomacy in this light. The region wants a “resident” US. The concern was not imaginary. All the trips to the region and speeches in the world. “Managing alliances in a new world. however. there were indeed some in the State Department who wanted nothing more than for the initiative to go away and who feared damage to alliances if it went forward. there were varying perceptions about whether the advertised merits of particular changes under the Global Defense Posture Review would indeed redound to the long-term security benefit of the United States.taipeitimes. because it precludes some of the most aggressive scenarios in their own development. has their concern looked more plausible. whose reaction to any disturbance of the diplomatic status quo might be expected to be one of resistance to change. indeed opposition.com 40/148 Thursday File bureaucrats. even to discussing prospective force reductions with allied countries. such concerns were not limited to experienced regional specialists in the State Department. Lohman. by extension. concerns in the State Department that some Department of Defense (DoD) officials. Countries in the region are in the early stages of planning against that eventuality. will not fill the gap alone. On the other hand.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. depends on it. Specifically true for Asian withdrawals.com/News/editorials/archives/2010/05/16/2003473110] US allies in Asia and friends who depend on them have long wrung their hands at the prospect of US withdrawal. might aggravate rather than defuse foreign anxieties were also not entirely misplaced. policy bureaucracy as a whole. In at least one country DoD doggedly sought to announce and implement a drawdown of military assets against that ally’s wishes and with an evident relish that required diplomatic damage control and led the president to withhold to himself the withdrawal decision. director of the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation. At no time since the administration of former US president Jimmy Carter. however helpful to the cause. 5-16-2010 [Walter. It wants a strong US. They need reassurance.S.
with members of his own government divided on how to proceed. just before national elections. with more than half on the island. Kurt Campbell's 'Cornerstone' alliance Mizuho Fukushima. Campbell also reiterated Washington's desire to see that the US Marine Corps Air Station at Futenma be transferred to another area on the island by 2014. called for the removal of the US base [Reuters] Last month Campbell called on Japan to stick to the 2006 deal and relocate the US Futenma air base in Okinawa. Al Jazeera 10 (1 February 2010.net/news/asia-pacific/2010/02/20102133033203868.aljazeera. . told a crowd protesters that she wants to see the Okinawa base closed and US troops moved out of Japan entirely.com Thursday File Link – Japan Renegotiating the SOFA will be costly – internal political struggles in Japan will prevent quick passage of the plan.S. led by prime minister Yukio Hatoyama. In 2006. as thousands marched through central Tokyo on Saturday. Labor unionists. pollution and crime around the bases. In written testimony before a Senate Foreign Relations Committee subcommittee on January 21. “US envoy to discuss Japan bases”.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 41/148 Cross-X. he pledged to resolve the issue by May. environmentalists and students called for an end to the US troop presence.000 US troops are stationed in Japan. a minister in Hatoyama's cabinet. caught between increasing public opposition to US troops and its crucial military alliance with Washington. Hatoyama has repeatedly postponed his decision on the pact. with its review of the Futenma relocation plan. the two countries signed a pact that called for the realignment of American troops in the country and for a marine base on the island to be moved to a less populated area. At a rally against the base. They gathered for a rally at a park. Decision postponed However. a cabinet minister. Some 47. But the newly elected Japanese government is re-examining the deal. He said the US is assisting the Japanese government. Mizuho Fukushima. http://english.html) US assistant secretary of state for East Asia is due to arrive in Tokyo on Monday for talks on the future visit comes after thousands of people from across Japan joined protests at the weekend against plans to relocate a US base on the southern island of Okinawa. The of American military bases in Japan. But the issue is a difficult one for the prime minister to juggle. Relations". Last week. opposition to the US-Japan pact is growing louder. pacifists. with members of his coalition government calling for all US troops to leave Japan. Campbell said the alliance with Japan was a "cornerstone" of the US engagement in Asia. Local residents have long complained about noise. under a banner that read "Change! Japan-U. Meanwhile.
“Transfer of troop control: A Bush legacy. . The vast majority of South Koreans don't question the authenticity of the professional judgment of the U.S. the decision is worthy of delay. That is priority number one of the alliance at this juncture. He also sent a delegation to express his condolences to the family of Kim. there was an auspicious example in this regard.at this moment. Successfully exercising soft power in the alliance means that the United States should win over South Koreans by paying careful attention to what they believe. Recently. States saved their country from North Korean aggression and also is the only foreign country the ROK has ever fought for in the history of Korea.” Korea Herald. We We need to exercise similar wisdom. Their insufficient knowledge of the North Korean nuclear threat largely results from deliberate propaganda of the Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun administrations. couldn't we postpone the decision until at least denuclearization of North Korea is completed? The OPCON transfer and the CFC dissolution is not a simple military issue but a complicated matter where hard power and soft power are combined. Writer for the Korea Herald. His decision is in full harmony with Korean culture and emotion. Using soft power is the ability to attract the South Korean people to the American side. 1/23/09. 6/24/10 through LexisNexis.com Thursday File Link – South Korea Plan unpopular: Public wants US troops to stay until North Korea denuclearizes Cheon 09 [Seong-whun. Concerning the unpreparedness of the ROK military against a North they ask. General Sharp sent USFK officials at Incheon Airport to receive the remains of Kim Suk-im who died when an American jet fighter crashed into her San Diego home last December.com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview. Korean WMD attack. should not send any hint of a wrong signal to Kim Jong-il. They manufactured a false sense of peace and security while intentionally ignoring or making little of the Still. Acc. spreading quiet ripple effects on Korean society. Remembering that the United nuclear threat. South Koreans question whether it is right to implement the decision the OPCON transfer and the CFC dissolution . http://www. Some even think that Washington is ready to accept the DPRK as a nuclear state as long as it is not committed to proliferation. they question what the alliance is all about. military.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 42/148 Cross-X.do? docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T9622716431&format=GNBFI&sort=RELEVANCE&startDocNo=1&resu ltsUrlKey=29_T9622562285&cisb=22_T9622716436&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=158208& docNo=1] The South Korean public was perplexed at the gushing of official reports and remarks from the United States. Simply because the North Korean military is most delighted to see the OPCON transfer and the CFC dissolution.lexisnexis.
S. a US military presence is allowed for up to three more years. there is a serious danger of war breaking out once American troops leave. Senior fellow in national security studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and contributing editor to the opinion section of Los Angeles Times.” 2-27. troops also play a vital peacekeeping role. which the Monitor recently tallied to include: 60. but that will only be possible after what is sure to be a protracted and tortuous negotiation with the new Iraqi government. CSM. “There’s still time to lose in Iraq. Thus the Iraqi and American timelines are dangerously out of sync. The presumption was that the drawdown would occur after Iraq had installed a new government. 5-9-2010 [Max. It is vital to have a continuing American military presence to train That should be no surprise considering that President and advise Iraqi security forces. AFP.say 10.000 aircraft and vehicles. the billions of dollars spent and the thousands of lives lost could be for nothing” Los Angeles Times. That takes tons of diplomatic resources.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 43/148 Cross-X. Obama promised today that the remaining 50. Boot. The Iraqi-American security accord negotiated by the George W.000 by September. 2008 [“US. where the two-lane Habur Gate crossing has been used quietly as a way to move supplies. 2009 [Christa Case.com Thursday File Link – Iraq Troop drawdown in Iraq will take years of intense negotiations. and 150. patrolling with Iraqi troops and the Kurdish peshmerga along the disputed Green Line separating Iraq proper from the Kurdish regional government. They hope that some forces will be permitted to remain.com/World/Global-News/2009/0227/troop-withdrawal-obama-to-end-iraqwar-by-august-201] Another challenge of the withdrawal is how to move the significant amount of equipment now in Iraq. http://afp. Obama added a new twist by ordering that troop strength be cut from the current 95. troops out of Iraq. and Obama’s plan now indicates an earlier withdrawal of the bulk of the troops by August 2010. The possibility of miscalculation will grow once the Iraqi armed forces acquire the M-1 tanks and F-16 fighters that we have agreed to sell them.S. If the new government isn't seated until the end of this year. 5-9. Yet U. Iraq still negotiating troop presence deal”. But US units are supposed to draw back from Iraqi cities to US bases by this summer. U.000 troops -.000 trailer-sized containers. Large troop reductions at a time of such political uncertainty will send a dangerous signal of disengagement and lessen America's ability to preserve the integrity of the elections.000 to 50. SOFA goes til 2011 – withdrawing ahead of schedule means we’d have to negotiate a new one. Bush administration called for the departure of all our soldiers by the end of 2011. One option might be to send some personnel and equipment via Turkey. which have grown in size and competence but still aren't capable of defending their airspace or performing other vital functions. But Iraqi politicians now expect that no government will emerge before the fall. a US-Iraqi deal settled on at the end of 2008. If the US doesn’t address Maliki’s postelection moves. officers in Iraq are right now implementing plans to draw down our troops to zero by the end of 2011.000 to 15. It is all the more important that an American buffer -. Lexis] Obama's overriding objective is to pull U.com/article/ALeqM5gXdwNmi_OvQcfCpWQ1s38VB-egqw] . Bryant.remain to ensure that those weapons are never used against our Kurdish allies. The last American-Iraqi security accord took a year to negotiate.000 troops – a bigger number than Democrats were expecting – will leave by 2011. American officials expected that postelection jockeying would end by June at the latest. it will be extremely difficult to conclude a treaty by the end of next year. In keeping with the deal.000 private contractors from nearly 50 bases and installations.csmonitor. Kurdish politicians I met in Irbil warned that if Iraqi-Kurdish land disputes aren't resolved by the end of 2011 (and odds are they won't be). The delay in seating a government also endangers the possible negotiation of a fresh accord to govern Iraqi-American relations after 2011.S. 10-15. http://www. 120. According to the Status of Forces Agreement. “Troop withdrawal: Obama to end Iraq war by August 2010.google.
The act includes. Iraq has proposed requiring U. combat forces from Iraq. combat forces out of Iraq by the end of August of next year. I .S. the White House said Friday." the White House said. officials have been much more cautious despite an improving security situation.S.com 44/148 Thursday File WASHINGTON (AFP) — The United States and Iraq are still negotiating the terms of an agreement on the future presence of US troops in Iraq next year. In the closest the Bush administration has come to acknowledging the WASHINGTON . And he said oustanding political and constitutional issues are also giving rise to severe tensions. the White House said "the goals would be based on continued improving conditions on the ground and not an arbitrary date for withdrawal.S. The deal was originally set to be signed in July. http://www." he said.S. both Allawi and parliament member Saleh al-Mutlaq pointed to political. Iraqi government opposes immediate withdrawal before stability – diplomatic investments necessary in the absence of presence." Iraqi parliament member Saleh al-Mutlaq said the only way to ensure free and fair elections in his country is with a commitment by the U. Saying the United States withdrawal should be "moral and responsible. Maliki had recently suggested a timetable be set for U.S. The Iraqis are still talking among themselves. But they have differed over some issues such as granting immunity to US soldiers for acts committed in Iraq. is to put in place a deal for the future status of US troops in Iraq after the UN Security Council mandate for the multinational force expires on December 31. dubbed the Status of Forces Agreement.S. but that condition could take years to meet. The U. but has been held up by the ongoing negotiations. whether Washington has the right to detain Iraqi prisoners and on the future command of military operations on the ground. While Iraqis know the United States will be withdrawing its military forces. Allawi said Iraq's military remains unable to shoulder the security burden. MSNBC. forces gone by the end of 2011. "The implementation of [the] political reform act as passed by Parliament in 2008 is a must.N.S.. Both US and Iraqi leaders have stressed that a deal is in the works. yet these steps are very necessary for the stabilization of Iraq. forces to withdraw fully five years after the Iraqis take the lead on security nationwide. troop cuts. "Without this monitoring.51voa. while Iraq seeks a path of prosperity and sovereignty where individual and minority rights are respected. "In the area of security cooperation.S. President Barack Obama has ordered all U. officials have been working in fits and starts on a formal Status of Forces Agreement to provide a legal basis for U.” 9-18.com/words/latest-news/us-iraq-seek-troop-withdrawal-time-horizon] Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki have agreed that a security deal under negotiation should set a "time horizon" for meeting "aspirational goals" for reducing U.S. And. troops to remain when an U. mandate expires at the end of the year. "Nothing is done until everything is done. Withdrawal requires negotiation with Iraqi government. senior US officials said Wednesday. but U." State Department spokesman Sean McCormack told reporters. None of these steps has been acted upon. such as pressures from Iran. and United Nations for thorough monitoring. wants to leave Iraq.com/VOA_Standard_English/VOA_Standard_English_33702. http://www.S. 2009 [Dan.html] Former Iraqi Prime Minister Allawi said the United States and Iraq have similar goals. 2008 [“U. and all U. he said.S.S.S.” 7-18. He declined to say whether the two sides were even close to a deal. forces in Iraq. but not in turmoil. that could cause problems during and after the elections. Iraq seek troop withdrawal 'time horizon'. Everything isn't done." Iraqi and U. US Defense Secretary Robert Gates said he was "actually reasonably optimistic we will come to closure on this in a very near future. the president and the prime minister agreed that improving conditions should allow for the agreements now under negotiation to include a general time horizon for meeting aspirational goals — such as the resumption of Iraqi security control in their cities and provinces and the further reduction of U. VOA. But.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X." The accord. among [other things] amending the Constitution.President likelihood of some kind of timetable for future U. withdrawal. Upon returning from a trip to Europe last week. Robinson.michaelmoore. instituting an inclusive political process and implementing political and national reconciliation. We are still talking to the Iraqis. sectarian and other problems as well as external factors. “Iraqi Politicians Urge Cautious US Military Withdrawal.
php?news=14364&searchFor=Iran] "We have political problems. he said. as another example of Iraq's ability to stand on its own two feet." he said. Democratic Representative William Delahunt.S. an Iraqi Kurd." he later told a U. withdrawing before stability devastates negotiating credibility. Calling the elections critical. The United States. in parliament. forces operate in Iraq. along with an upsurge in sectarian tensions. tensions. stressing that Iraq's neighbours were now taking it seriously. the assassinations are already there. “Iraq Sheds US Puppet in its Own Backyard.. said a large international observer presence is required before and during the vote.S. Lt. policy in Afghanistan.com Thursday File believe that the election will be the same as happened before. And we have been getting so many warnings that we are going to be targeted.reuters.S. The intimidation is already there. “Gates: US won't promise to defend Iraq in accord”. it didn't work." he said. has said. "Syria's prime minister and foreign minister are coming over soon." he said. Congress to the United Nations. the arch-foe of Washington ever since matter what the differences between the United States and a neighbouring country. support here in this country for involvement in Afghanistan will diminish because the American people will be saying. 2009 [Haro. "We do not want. over our constitutional reforms. military presence. "these are part of the reconciliation" process in the warthe 1979 Islamic revolution.S.com/article/idUSN06442345] "The status-of-forces agreement that is being discussed will not contain a commitment to defend Iraq and neither will any strategic framework agreement. In his testimony Thursday. presence in Iraq also will be part of the negotiations. House of Representatives committee. For Baghdad. withdrawal schedule. Staff Writer. More ev – SOFAs. "It used to be that way. Delahunt said he will use consultations in New York next week to generate support for international monitoring of the Iraqi elections. Zebari. "We have proven that no battered country." he said in his office. The Democratic representative of the U. our continued engagement despite their negativism. part of which was established in a Status of Forces Agreement reached during the Bush administration." the foreign minister said. 2-17. with economic issues high on the agenda. 'We tried it once." Zebari said Baghdad's often troubled ties with Damascus had "improved a great deal" . "We are thinking of reopening our [oil] pipeline through Syria to the Mediterranean. In his testimony to the subcommittee. permanent The United States and Iraq have agreed to start formal negotiations about their future relationship with the goal of finishing an accord by the end of July. Senate panel.jordantimes. The agreement will set the rules and legal protections under which U. bases in Iraq. the [long-delayed] oil law.com/index. and ethnic and factional infighting continue to simmer." in contrast to other countries where it would have been a state secret. Roberts. outmaneuver and constrain rival factions. 2-6. Zebari pointed to the opening of several Arab embassies in Baghdad and to the expected stream of diplomatic visits. referring to the loss of diplomatic credibility after the US-led invasion of March 2003 that toppled Saddam Hussein.S. U. "The impression has completely changed. Vice President Joe Biden said on Thursday the United States will abide by any decisions by the Iraqi people on the U. Delahunt worries not only about a deterioration in Iraq.S. we have our vested interests and can make our own decisions. in the media.' So this isn't just simply about supporting the Iraqi people and democracy in Iraq. which should include not only the deployment of U. And look what happened. On the final day of a visit to Iraq. but the impact electoral problems in Iraq could have on the American public support for U. that our people are going to be targeted." he said. Kenneth Katzman. It's about Afghanistan and I dare say it's about the entire region. "All this has sent the right signals.S.. he said.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 45/148 Cross-X. the subcommittee Chairman. and instead attended an economic summit in Kuwait. referring to the scepticism of nearby countries. Within the Arab world. "If the election in January is unsuccessful. 2008 [Kristin. Douglas Lute. nor will we seek. And many Iraqis' views and positions are colored by efforts to outflank. but a strong United Nations involvement." he said. "Sectarianism. adorned with a plush Persian carpet. Plus. has a moral responsibility and national security interest in ensuring fraud-free elections in Iraq.S. http://www.” http://www. forces. government performance. Iraq had also taken a stand last month by staying away from a meeting of leaders in Qatar meant to shore up support for Hamas over the Gaza crisis. a specialist in Middle East Affairs with the Congressional Research Service. warned that sectarianism in Iraq might worsen in the run-up to the elections. Pointing to questions about the legitimacy of the recent election in Afghanistan. Reuters." Gates told a U. not only for Iraq's future but for the region. former Iraqi Prime Minister Allawi voiced concern about what he called "reversals in security" after a fragile period of improvement. staff writer for Agence French Presse. especially after this agreement with the US and the way we debated it." he said. the White House deputy national security adviser. Chakmakijan. Gen. that's a key issue. also pointed to Baghdad's good ties with Tehran. The size of the long-term U.S. Katzman said sectarian tensions could reach a peak as Iraqis decide whether to hold a referendum on the U.S.
he argues. Vice President Biden recently said that the United States was “going to be able to keep our commitment” to reduce troop levels in Iraq to 50." said Zebari.com/posts/2009/01/18/sofa_not_the_surge) Peter Beinart today bravely repeats the emerging would-be conventional wisdom. I have a hard time imagining anything as tedious as rehashing those tired debates from the campaign about the "surge" -.yalibnan. Allawi. leader of the Iraqiya List. and international policy priority in the region — the planned troop withdrawals. Moreover. a stable energy supply. I sincerely hope that the United States will remain actively engaged in Iraq. http://lynch. http://www. Zebari contrasted the approach to the individual contacts dating back to the days of opposition to Saddam's regime when many of today's leaders of Iraq were exiled in Iran. said Zebari. "They took that as a sign. Democrats should admit that the "surge" worked and -. he acknowledged Shiite Iran was influential in the new Iraq. nuclear containment. by Iran's former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani the two sides are placing their diplomatic ties on a new footing. Such an outcome would insult the tens of thousands of Iraqi civilians whose lives were stolen in terrorist attacks and the thousands of U. 10 [Ayad. is sending its deputy premier and foreign minister. long way with them. Even Kuwait. "They have influence. ForeignPolicy." the minister said.. They haven't stopped but the Syrians have taken a number of measures.S.. 28 January 2009. Iraq cannot be allowed to revert to an unstable state of sectarian strife.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 46/148 Cross-X. But our attitude [now] is to deal with each other as two sovereign countries. Washington still has unrivaled leverage in Iraq.com Thursday File following their opening of embassies in late 2006. While I have long supported the withdrawal of U. which finished first in votes in Iraq’s national elections in March. citing Tehran's strong opposition to the security pact with Washington. of Iraq asserting more independence. “Editorial: How Iraq can fortify its fragile democracy. where the Shiite majority is dominant.. Sheikh Mohammad Sabah Al Salim Al Sabah. culminating in Saddam's 1990 invasion. I think.uniquely echoing a thousand recent op-eds -was President Bush's finest moment. Rather than simply denounce everything Republican. dominated by regional influences. as well as a moral responsibility to the Iraqi people whom it freed from tyranny to do all it can to deliver sustainable peace and stability. Lynch Professor Political Science 09 (Marc. Renegotiating the SOFA for a rapid withdrawal will demand large amounts of attention – Allawi wants US troops to stay for legitimacy and will delay negotiations. through consulates. not the surge”.perhaps we could have another round of arguments as to whether the surge brigades arriving in the spring of 2007 caused the Sunni turn against al-Qaeda in the fall of 2006? But in the interests of post-partisanship. to have a protocol of dealing with each other. to Baghdad for the first time.000 by this summer. It is willing to offer an alternative as Bush's finest hour in Iraq: the Status of Forces Agreement.S." With Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's visit last week . associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University . that is wrong. it would also put at risk every U. "We are trying to formalise relations with them through embassies." he said.foreignpolicy.S. troops. who has served as foreign minister since Iraq's first post-invasion administration." he said. Joint oil fields.S. It demonstrated a pragmatism and willingness to put the national interest ahead of partisanship that few of us believed he possessed. "We told them this is a sovereign Iraqi decision.com/2010/06/12/editorial-how-iraqcan-fortify-its-fragile-democracy/] we hope that the United States and the United Nations will help bring Iraq’s political blocs together to achieve a government in the national interest. even the chances of success in the Israeli-Palestinian issue Renegotiating SOFAs for troop withdrawal requires considerable diplomatic capital – Iraq proves." Turning to Tehran. I have to be honest. through official channels. He served as prime minister from 2004 to 2005. military forces from Iraq on a fixed three year timeline demonstrated a real flexibility on Bush's part. soldiers who sacrificed their lives. no. “Bush's finest moment on Iraq: SOFA. with which Iraq has had troubled ties for decades. "We have come a long. "To say that they dictate to us. to help shield our fragile democracy from foreign interference and forces that wish to undermine democracy. "There are less infiltrators coming from the Syrian border. I am Signing a Status of Forces Agreement requiring the full withdrawal of U.to be followed.” YaLibnan. demarcation of borders and the billions of dollars in war reparation claims will be among the thorny issues on the agenda. largely thanks to Bush's acceptance of his own bargaining failure that Barack Obama will inherit a plausible route to successful ." Zebari said. and secondly they felt that this will backfire on them.
Thanks to this pragmatism. Women in . But at that point he bowed to the political realities in the U. It’s the stupidest blunder in American foreign policy history. Sorenson. he hedged -.S. bases and a Korea-style presence for generations. or stay for 50 months or weeks.he didn't authorize Ambassador Ryan Crocker to sign off on the deal until after the Presidential election (on November 18).S. Kennedy. Their tough line was encouraged by Iran. Yes. To his credit. is among the reasons why Robert Gates will continue as Secretary of Defense. forces in three years. withdrawal instead of a Bush/McCain. there will still be bloodshed.S. Conservatives now like to claim the SOFA as a "Bush-negotiated" success. .S. I don’t believe that with the United States having taken the lid off Pandora’s box . but we don’t have democracy there.S. . to most everyone's surprise. as his finest moment in Iraq.com Thursday File disengagement from Iraq. and an absolute rejection of an Obama- Iraqi leaders. And thus I offer Bush's willingness to sign the SOFA mandating U. So what have we achieved? And there are more Iraqi civilians being killed every day. it was widely assumed that Bush would extract from the Iraqis an agreement which made the removal of U. And here's where I will offer some sincere praise for Bush and his team. withdrawal from Iraq.S. And they’re now being used against American troops. and not the surge. But elections and an intensely strong popular Iraqi hostility to the U. I might speculate. And this.S. There were widespread discussions of permanent U. And it’s . Whether we stay for 50 years as John McCain may be necessary like Korea. an assumption that the U.S. Iraqi women probably have fewer rights today than they had women Saddam Hussein. the Iraqi leaders clearly kept a careful eye on the American Presidential elections and used Obama's stance to strengthen their own hand in negotiations. Finally.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 47/148 SOFA negotiations looking for something entirely different than what emerged at the end. troops without any legal mandate to remain in the country and forcing the hand of American negotiators. Iraq inevitably devastates capital – withdrawal can’t help. We didn’t even have enough troops to secure the arsenals and armories so that the terrorists just robbed all of those weapons.com/ideas/1085] Question: Has the Iraq War depleted our military and diplomatic capital? Ted Sorensen: We haven’t spent it all. would retain a free hand in its operations. 2008 [Ted. We still have enormous stockpiles of strategic weapons that have never been used.than his own. and sectarian killings.S. And what have we achieved? Saddam Hussein is gone. who was secular. and political wrangling going on inside Iraq.withdrawal of U. . Granted. “Has the Iraq War depleted our military and diplomatic capital?” 5-22.S. http://bigthink. The Cross-X. the December 31 deadline loomed large. he could have insisted on the latter. withdrawal. went into the SOFA talks intent on obtaining legitimacy for a long-term military presence in Iraq once the Security Council mandate ended. But he didn't.S. he was an evil man.S. withdrawal. . This would have fit with his administration's often-repeated preferences. Obama can now work closely with the Iraqi government in managing the drawdown instead of spending his first months in office trying to wriggle out of an unacceptable deal. as stressed by many frustrated American commentators. was in charge than they . They used to be killed every day by stray American bombs. . When the Iraqis insisted on an Obama-style timeline for U. no doubt. . threatening to leave the U. but now they’re killed today by other Iraqis. pointless. He could have continued to push for this conception closer to the December 31 deadline. no permanent bases -. Bush agreed to the Obama-style timeline for U. troops entirely contingent upon American assessments of conditions on the ground. took a hard line in the negotiations. As negotiations dragged on.style conditions-based aspirational time frame for U. and Iraq and agreed to a SOFA which far more closely matched Obama's avowed vision for Iraq -. and violence. But Bush entered the U. We have so messed up that country that I’m not sure even a democratic president can solve it. . We didn’t even have enough troops to secure the borders and keep the terrorists from pouring in from other countries. But it also reflected Iraqi domestic considerations. The Iraqis were also helped by the calender. and God willing will never be used. But we have stretched thin our conventional forces in a foolish. When negotiations began. endless invasion and occupation of Iraq. and there is no end in sight. . playing high-stakes chicken at the expense of American military planning for the coming year and at the risk of the Iraqi political system not having adequate time to ratify the deal. including several rounds of upcoming style timeline for withdrawal. . Former Special Counsel to Pres. occupation under any name. than they have now when the United States put the Shiia in power.
More largely. As Princeton scholar Joshua Walker has noted.S. all of the administration's positive interactions with Turkey have been beneficial: Washington has supported Turkey's role as a regional energy supplier and encouraged Ankara as it undertakes difficult political reforms and works to resolve regional diplomatic conflicts.S. given its long-established pragmatic relations and growing economic ties with Iran. 2004 [David S. But to get there. with considerations left open for later deployments of mobile ground-based interceptors in Eastern Europe or Turkey. Critically. Ankara is in a position to positively influence Tehran's behavior. nuclear weapons: improved alliance relations. The U. nuclear weapons in Turkey”Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists http://www. Empirically. The political and strategic compasses are pointing to the eventual withdrawal of nuclear weapons from Europe--it's a strategy that certainly fits the disarmament agenda President Barack Obama has outlined. efforts there.. Yost. Turkey would obtain a stronger footing in alliance politics. And treaty negotiations in pursuit of further reductions to the U.com Thursday File Link – TNWs TNW withdrawal costs tons of diplomatic capital. Ebsco] Perhaps partly because of improved relations with Russia. and Russian arsenals should involve forward-deployed nuclear weapons. if the United States and European Union task Turkey with a bigger role in the diplomatic back-and-forth with Iran. and his visit to Turkey in April was warmly received.-Turkish relationship cooled when Turkey refused to participate in Operation Iraqi Freedom.S. it would help convince Ankara (and others) of Turkey's value to NATO and have the additional benefit of pulling Ankara into a closer relationship with Washington and Brussels. careful diplomacy will be required to improve U.org/web-edition/features/thestatus-of-us-nuclear-weapons-turkey] A prescription for withdrawal. Bell & Loehrke. Ankara's potential influence with Tehran should not be underestimated. Doing so requires a key factor that also is essential to paving the way toward withdrawal of U.S. “The status of U. This cooperation could provide the bond with Washington and perception of security that Turkey seeks in the face of a potential Iranian bomb. Project manager at the Ploughshares Fund and a Truman National Security Fellow AND **Research assistant at the Ploughshares Fund and a graduate student at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy. weapons in Turkey. Washington would risk compromising Turkey as a NATO ally and key regional partner. This is consistent with a longstanding pattern in which most allies have deemed strategic nuclear matters a US responsibility and have deferred to US judgement about the appropriate . Preventing Turkey (and any other country in the region) from acquiring nuclear weapons is critical to international security. nuclear weapons from Turkish soil. any removal of the weapons in Turkey would need to happen in concert with efforts to prevent Iran from turning its civil nuclear energy program into a military one. Otherwise. If used properly. “The US Nuclear Posture Review and the NATO allies. Obama's election has helped to mend fences. contain its chief security concerns. this means intense negotiations to reassure extended deterrence commitments. Because Russia weighs significantly in Turkish security calculations. First. security guarantees. Turkey recently doubled its troop contribution to NATO's Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan--a boon to U. and foster the necessary conditions for the removal of tactical U. For its part.thebulletin.4. In fact. Ph. As a result.” International Affairs 80. July. Turkey must be fully confident in NATO and U. During any such negotiations. Ship-based Aegis missile systems will be the backbone of the strategy. Professor at the Naval Postgraduate School.S.D.S. reductions to Russian strategic and nonstrategic nuclear arsenals also would help improve Ankara's peace of mind. in international relations at the University of Southern California (1979). The United States and Russia soon will seek ratification of a follow-on agreement to START.S. allied observers have expressed no noteworthy concerns about the effects of the NPR-mandated reductions in operationally deployed US strategic nuclear warheads on extended deterrence. including the U. policy declined through the end of the George W. Turkey actually can play an important role in this complex process. and the United States and its allies should seriously consider Turkish offers to serve as an interlocutor between Iran and the West.and intermediate-range ballistic missiles--Washington could further shore up its military relationship with Turkey.S. Bush administration. after which Turkish support for U. 11-23.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 48/148 Cross-X. 2009 [Alexandra and Benjamin.-Turkish ties and to assuage Turkish security concerns. By incorporating Ankara into its new European missile defense plans--intended to protect Turkey and other countries vulnerable to Iran's short.S.S.
The Defense Department's 2008 report PDF on nuclear weapons management concurred: "As long as our allies value [the nuclear weapons'] political contribution.S. (In addition to the 90 B61 bombs in Turkey. Such a relaxed posture makes clear just how little NATO relies on tactical nuclear weapons for its defense anymore. Fifty of these bombs are reportedly PDF assigned for delivery by U. supported the elimination of U. over the last few decades. the last time US policy regarding strategic nuclear forces became a significant topic in transatlantic security discussions. meaning nuclear-capable F-16s from other U. In the event of a Soviet assault on Europe. and the Netherlands. he was met with fierce political resistance. Roadblocks to removal. Today. and European officials still maintain that the political value of the nuclear weapons is enough to keep them deployed across Europe. Aggressors are more likely to be deterred by NATO's conventional power or the larger strategic forces supporting its nuclear umbrella. bases would need to be brought in if Turkey's bombs were ever needed. tactical nuclear weapons in Turkey are without military value or purpose. That means removing them from the country should be simple.. Jones. matters of national and international security are never that easy. did the weapons' strategic value. the perceived political commitment of the United States—including its manifest intentions. however. given the risk of prompt inter. Any Europeans inclined to be worried about the credibility of US extended deterrence in view of the constraints on US strategic nuclear forces imposed by arms control or budgetary limits would probably be influenced by interactions with US experts.S. Japan and other beneficiaries of US nuclear guarantees.S. Turkey has been a quiet custodian of U. and the debates about SALT II.S. the alliance has been subject to periodic crises of confidence—in essence.org/web-edition/features/thestatus-of-us-nuclear-weapons-turkey] For more than 40 years. the weapons were to be fired as one of the first retaliatory shots. they argue that the weapons are "an essential political and military link" between NATO members and help maintain alliance cohesion. Turkey hosts an estimated 90 B61 gravity bombs at Incirlik Air Base. nuclear weapons in Europe. 2-23-2010 . tactical nuclear weapons. there are another 110 or so U. policy activists and politicians—as was the case in the late 1970s and early 1980s. and forty are assigned for delivery by the Turkish Air Force. the weapons are still deployed as a matter of deterrence. European doubts about America’s will to defend its allies. During the Cold War. U. fighter wing is based at Incirlik. However. Supposedly. to defend the region against Soviet attack and to influence Soviet strategic calculations). These doubts have been aggravated whenever Americans have expressed anxieties about US strategic capabilities— as during the ‘bomber gap’ and ‘missile gap’ controversies in the late 1950s and early 1960s. Guardian. pilots.) Four years later. But as the Cold War waned.continental nuclear retaliation from Russia. Ever since the Soviet Union launched Sputnik in 1957 and developed the world’s first ICBMs.S.S. TNW removal will meet with massive controversy – requires tons of diplomatic resources. In this event. 11-23. and its apparent confidence in the adequacy of its strategic nuclear posture—would probably matter more in reassuring allies than the size of the force and its specific characteristics. the United States is obligated to provide and maintain the nuclear weapon capability. In particular. So in effect.S. In fact. Thus. right? Unfortunately. James L. the United States has removed all of its intermediate-range missiles from Turkey and reduced its other nuclear weapons there through gradual redeployments and arms control agreements.S. but the crux of deterrence is sustaining an aggressor's perception of guaranteed rapid reprisal--a perception the nuclear bombs deployed in Turkey cannot significantly add to because they are unable to be rapidly launched. If a debate emerged in the United States about the adequacy of the US strategic force posture in the context of national security (without necessarily considering extended deterrence for allied security). Bell & Loehrke. some U.thebulletin. no permanent nuclear-capable U. arisen historically.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. Project manager at the Ploughshares Fund and a Truman National Security Fellow AND **Research assistant at the Ploughshares Fund and a graduate student at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy.com 49/148 Thursday File structure and level of US strategic nuclear forces. and in some circumstances more such exceptions could occur. so. Gen. nuclear weapons in Turkey”Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists http://www. Washington positioned intermediate-range nuclear missiles and bombers there to serve as a bulwark against the Soviet Union (i. Germany. when NATO's top commander at the time.e." Removal of TNWs strongly opposed – forces negotiations after the plan. “The status of U. 2009 [Alexandra and Benjamin. too. ICBM vulnerability and ‘grey area’ systems such as the Backfire bomber in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Exceptions to this pattern have. and the Turkish Air Force is reportedly PDF not certified for NATO nuclear missions. Italy. bombs located at bases in Belgium. allied experts and officials would probably ask questions about the implications for NATO. In 2005. the readiness of NATO's nuclear forces now is measured in months as opposed to hours or days.S.
The function of these systems is to keep the peace and to prevent wars. But this has never happened. the Guardian has learned.S. "US bombs must stay in Europe.cfm? fa=view&id=22533&prog=zgp&proj=znpp] there are a number of political reasons for not entirely foregoing U. partly because of resistance from some former Soviet bloc states within Nato. however. Diplomatic editor. . Belgium. nuclear forces in Europe and nuclear sharing with Alliance partners demonstrate a shared risk within NATO and binds America to the old continent. at least.org/publications/index. Anders Fogh Rasmussen. mostly on its western flank. 3-30-2010 [Julian Borger. further points need to be taken into consideration. nuclear presence gives those NATO members participating in nuclear sharing a greater say in nuclear decision making or. Nato advisers say". Guardian. the group of experts. but have quietly opposed moves to withdraw them from the US bases on their soil. But Not Yet”. They remain particularly interested in a strong nuclear deterrent vis-à-vis Russia and Iran. 2008 [Oliver. lexis] A Nato advisory group helping to draft a new strategy for the military alliance will recommend that US nuclear bombs stay in Europe. At least some NATO partners continue to value this. Italy and Turkey. Luxembourg and Norway for its stance. the Netherlands.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.000 short-range nuclear weapons). In order to avoid yet another split in NATO on a crucial issue. Until now.000 tactical nuclear weapons.uk/commentisfree/2010/feb/23/nato-cold-war-nuclear-relics] It's decision time for the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. these political factors should not be neglected.S. http://www. "You cannot get rid of them without reciprocity. Germany won the support of Belgium. last month calling for a debate on the future of the tactical weapons. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. more access to information. the U. They have been virulently opposed to the removal of the weapons which they perceive as a guarantee of a US presence in Europe against Russian aggression. Concern over the B61 stockpile in Europe was heightened by a security breach two months ago when protesters managed to break in to an American base in Belgium where up to 20 of the bombs are thought to be stockpiled. Nuclear Forces in Europe to Zero? Yes. Italy and Turkey. Eastern European and Baltic countries are also uneasy about removing what they see as a symbol of America's preparedness to protect them against attack. and foreign ministers from the five countries delivered a letter to the Nato secretary general. Moreover.carnegieendowment. In particular. three At the same time. have been silent on the issue in recent months. will say the roughly 200 remaining American B61 bombs on European soil should not be unilaterally withdrawn. Thranert. Nato clings to the outmoded notion that the 200 or so gravity bombs in five European countries are a necessary deterrent (against Russia.com 50/148 Thursday File [Anne Penketh. The status quo has prevailed with the US saying it is waiting for an allied request to remove the B61 bombs from Germany. “Burying Nuclear Relics of the cold war” http://www. More ev. but it will significantly strengthen the hand of those in the alliance who are opposed to a German-led initiative to remove the bombs unilaterally." a member of the group said. which has an estimated 2.S. In a report due on 1 May. More ev – negotiations necessary – allies oppose removal without Russian reciprocation. U. The 11 experts will suggest that the bombs only be removed as part of a new treaty with Russia. which is confronted by a dilemma over the future of short-range US nuclear weapons in Europe. “U. The group's word will not be final. chaired by the former US secretary of state Madeleine Albright. the alliance has chosen to ignore calls for change and has eschewed public debate. nuclear forces in Europe at this point in time. which has an estimated 4. In addition.S. Senior Fellow at German Institute for International and Security Affairs. the Netherlands.guardian. which play host to most of the B61 stockpile.co.
Germany. At this stage Turkish diplomatic sources decline to comment on what Ankara's policy will be if NATO presses and finally agrees on a unanimous Kibaroğlu. Kibaroğlu. are for maintaining those weapons on Turkish soil to continue their deterrence capabilities in the region.todayszaman.. based on their threat analysis.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 51/148 Cross-X. too. which includes the Balkans. an associate professor at Ankara's Bilkent University and an expert on arms control issues. Officials have understandable arguments. the Middle East and the Mediterranean.” Today’s Zaman.e. Kibaroğlu states in his article that the attitude of Turkish officials toward US nuclear weapons deployed in Turkey for over four decades has been static. http://www. “Turkey to face pressure over US nukes on its soil. Sariibrahimoğlu ’09 (Lale. as to why these weapons should be retained in Turkey. Turkey sees the US as the backbone of deterrence in the region and does not favor the idea of scrapping the nukes from its soil. Canada and Greece ended their participation in nuclear sharing. an estimated 480 tactical nuclear weapons remain deployed in five NATO non-nuclear-weapon states (Belgium." gives an in-depth analysis of the rationale behind the Turkish reluctance over the idea to scrap US nukes on its territory. i. under NATO nuclear-sharing arrangements. both the political and the military leadership. Second. *****Internal Links***** .com Thursday File Link – Turkey Hundreds of tactical nuclear weapons remain in NATO non-nuclear states.do? load=detay&link=174286&bolum=100 According to the US-based Arms Control Association. in an article he had published by the Routledge publishing house in December 2005 under the headline "Isn't it decision to withdraw the weapons from Turkish soil. 4/4/09). which also possesses an independent nuclear arsenal. told Today's Zaman that Turkish decision makers. including Turkey. and Turkish officials have no plans to request the withdrawal. But Mustafa Time to Say Farewell to Nukes in Turkey?. Italy. the Netherlands and Turkey) and in the United Kingdom.com/tz-web/detaylar.
from the fragile states of Afghanistan and Iraq to Pakistan. which were in free fall after a push for an Israeli settlement freeze reached a dead end. Clinton's counselor and chief of staff.S. 'We have to dive in.cnn." Clinton told the gathering of diplomats at the State Department. Events elsewhere in the world aren't looking any more promising. Mubarak's support in the effort was critical. Labott – 2/16 (Elise Labott.Dip Cap Finite – Egypt Egypt has taken full focus of US diplomacy. Feb 2. The timing could not be worse.recent events in Egypt and certainly in that broader region . "civilian power." She said U. killing four people. There is a tradeoff resources are limited. innovative and accountable than ever before. diplomacy in global hot spots. Now it is becoming reality. Clinton was impatient to stop careering from crisis to crisis on the peninsula and engage Pyongyang in a meaningful way that both calmed the situation with South Korea and moved North Korea toward abandoning its nuclear ambitions. more open to the demands of the young. more open to technology.remind us all how crucial it is to have top-notch leadership on the ground and how quickly the ground can shift under our feet. http://www. The events trade-off with other issues. saying Wednesday the recent developments in Egypt and the Middle East demonstrate the critical need for America's global leadership.'" is perhaps her toughest test yet as the nation's top diplomat. February 16.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 52/148 Cross-X. Although tensions had cooled somewhat in recent months. Clinton said officials would have to accept that positions and resources would need to be shifted to where they are needed most.com/2011/POLITICS/02/16/clinton.com Thursday File 2NC Ext .S.sweep/index. where she said the volume of false claims about the United States makes WASHINGTON (AP) -responding difficult. “Clinton: Critical time for American leadership”. diplomacy?”. 2011. North and South Korea have been on a razor's edge for months. . and his ouster could paralyze. “Can Clinton remake U. talking about the need for countries to become more democratic. World powers just concluded a fresh round of nuclear talks with Iran that produced no meaningful movement.S.ap. For two years. recalled Cheryl Mills. http://hosted. Speaking to an audience of nearly every American ambassador. The two countries exchanged artillery fire in November after North Korea shelled a South Korean island.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_HILLARY_CLINTON_GLOBAL_CHANGES? SITE=NYMID&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT) CJC Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton stressed the need for stronger U. Clinton had hoped to start the year reviving peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians.S. CNN Senior State Department Producer. diplomacy needed to be more nimble.html?iref=allsearch) CJC "There were a first few moments of wonderment and then she said. Associated Press – 2/2 (Staff. "What's going on today . Bad timing for a tough test It Diplomatic focus is shifting to deal with the Egyptian crisis. Clinton referred to the unrest gripping the Arab world in emphasizing the importance of U. if not kill. and the Obama administration is struggling over how to respond. 2011. the administration's ambitious goal of achieving Palestinian statehood by the end of the year. she has traveled the globe.
Clinton referred to the unrest gripping the Arab world in emphasizing the importance of U. diplomacy in global hot spots. where she said the volume of false claims about the United States makes responding difficult. Feb 2.com Thursday File 2NC Ext – Dip Cap Finite – Middle East Diplomatic efforts must be focused on hot spots to deal with those crises. “Clinton: Critical time for American leadership”. http://www." She said U. Focus on other issues trades-off with our ability to focus on the unrest in the Middle East.S. "civilian power." Clinton told the gathering of diplomats at the State Department.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jQd9Kvg9Uv2cvUt1Qs9k94zAgEuA? docId=185e3876cccf45b782bfa9245e30be45) CJC Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton stressed the need for stronger U. diplomatic cables by the WikiLeaks website. "We are all in unchartered territory. Referring to the release of confidential U. Clinton said officials would have to accept that positions and resources would need to be shifted to where they are needed most. Speaking to an audience of nearly every American ambassador. from the fragile states of WASHINGTON (AP) — Afghanistan and Iraq to Pakistan. 2011." Clinton said.google. protests and technological developments that have the capacity to change the lives of millions of people. Clinton said ambassadors needed to adapt to a "fast-changing world" that includes theft. saying Wednesday the recent developments in Egypt and the Middle East demonstrate the critical need for America's global leadership. Twitter and other forums to better project the . diplomacy needed to be more nimble.S. She urged ambassadors to embrace the potential of Facebook. innovative and accountable than ever before.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 53/148 Cross-X.S.S. "What's going on today — recent events in Egypt and certainly in that broader region — remind us all how crucial it is to have top-notch leadership on the ground and how quickly the ground can shift under our feet. Associated Press – 2/2 /11 (Staff.
Diplomatic capital is finite – each new issue trades off with another one.” http://www. and ensuring access to foreign economies (Holmes and Moore 1996.S. Traditionally. these priorities had been opposing hostile domination of key geographic regions. page 46] Diplomacy is the first option in addressing potential threats to U.perc. J. Int'l L. . Anderson is executive director of Political Economy Research Center ("PERC")The Center for Free Market Environmentalism. Fall.S. Increased environmental regulations could cause countries to lessen their focus on international threats of violence such as the sale of ballistic missiles or border conflicts between nations. supporting our allies. Foreign policy is a bag of goods that includes issues from free trade to arms trading to human rights. . Bozeman. Montana. national interests and expressing U. "Because diplomatic currency is finite . 427) CJC Foreign policy is a bag of goods that includes issues from free trade to arms trading to human rights. it is critically important that the United States focus its diplomatic efforts on issues of paramount importance to the nation. Stanford University." Diplomatic capital is finite – issues trade off. securing vital resources. securing vital resources. lessening the focus on other issues and even creating conflicts between issues. Schaeffer. these priorities have been opposing hostile domination of key geographic regions. . foreign countries and officials cannot be expected to endlessly support and promote U. 46) writes. they will stretch the resources necessary to deal with traditional international issues. J. they will stretch the resources necessary to deal with traditional international issues. and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. 2000 [Brett. “Because diplomatic currency is finite . concerns and priorities to foreign nations. Bishop Grewell is a research associate with PERC. Fellow in the Center for International Trade at Heritage Foundation. it is critically important that the United States focus its diplomatic efforts on issues of paramount importance to the nation. xi-xvii). 2001 [Terry and Bishop.S. As Schaefer writes. supporting our allies. Because diplomatic currency is finite—clearly. As Schaefer (2000. Diplomatic capital is finite – plan prevents focus on more important issues. lessening the focus on other issues and even creating conflicts between issues.S. As countries must watch over more and more issues arising in the international policy arena. The Greening of U. 2001 2 Chi. “The Greening of Foreign Policy. Increased environmental regulations could cause countries to lessen their focus on international threats of violence. The daily conduct of diplomacy through U. and ensuring access to foreign economies. such as the sale of ballistic missiles or border conflicts between nations. As countries must watch over more and more issues arising in the international policy arena. . concerns—it is critically important that the United States focus its diplomatic efforts on issues of paramount importance to the nation.com Thursday File 2NC Ext – Dip Cap Finite Diplomatic capital is finite – each new issue trades off with existing issues Anderson & Grewell – 01 (Terry L.pdf] Greater international environmental regulation can increase international tension.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 54/148 Cross-X. interests and eliciting cooperation and support for those interests abroad. Anderson & Grewell. Each new issue in the bag weighs it down. Traditionally.S. Each new issue in the bag weighs it down.S.org/pdf/ps20. Foreign Policy. . missions and representatives is essential in articulating U.
former research associate for PERC. Executive Director of the Property and Environment Research Center.perc. Foreign policy is a bag of goods that includes issues from free trade to arms trading to human rights. Each new issue in the bag weighs it down. the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 55/148 Cross-X. and Northwestern Law School. He is a graduate of Stanford University. As Schaefer (2000.com Thursday File Anderson and Grewell 2000 (Terry L. 46) writes. December 2000. Traditionally. lessening the focus on other issues and even creating conflicts between issues. supporting our allies. Bishop. “Because diplomatic currency is finite . PERC Policy Series: PS-20. it is critically important that the United States focus its diplomatic efforts on issues of paramount importance to the nation. As countries must watch over more and more issues arising in the international policy arena. http://www.. J. . “The Greening of Foreign Policy”. .pdf) Greater international environmental regulation can increase international tension.” . and ensuring access to foreign economies. they will stretch the resources necessary to deal with traditional international issues. Increased environmental regulations could cause countries to lessen their focus on international threats of violence such as the sale of ballistic missiles or border conflicts between nations.org/pdf/ps20. these priorities have been opposing hostile domination of key geographic regions. securing vital resources.
civil affairs. February 1. government's integrated civilian-military efforts to interact effectively with a variety of audiences and stakeholders. Chief among these are policy implementation. and stability operations. and public diplomacy and engagement. public affairs. information operations. Effective strategic communication requires close collaboration across interagency lines at all stages. where population and stakeholder beliefs and perceptions are crucial to our success. Together. and DoD works particularly closely with the Department of State to support State’s core role in communicating with foreign governments and international publics. Effective strategic communication also requires the orchestration of multiple lines of operation.S. The Quadrennial Defense Review in 2010 (QDR Report prepared for Congress. 2010) As part of the U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 56/148 Cross-X. DoD will continue to improve key capabilities that support strategic communication. force employment. CT. and where adversaries often enjoy the advantage of greater local knowledge and calibrate their activities to achieve sophisticated information objectives. the effects of these activities support national objectives. Strategic communication is essential in COIN.com Thursday File 2NC Ext – Diplomatic Capital Key – Plan Cost The plan would have to be spun to control perceptions – this requires extensive diplomatic focus. .
Clinton noted that the U. (they) remind us all of how crucial it is to have top-notch leadership on the ground. http://www. CNN Foreign Affairs Correspondent. recent events in Egypt and certainly in that broader region.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS %3A+Politics%29) CJC In the midst of mass uprisings and historic change in the Middle East.S. The U.diplomatic. http://www. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told a gathering of U. from congressional pressure to cut the State Department budget and foreign aid. however. forcing the closing of the Suez Canal and allowing Iran fill the vacuum." "As we see.com Thursday File Military K2 Secular Transition US must support the military to ensure there is time for political parties to get organized to prevent a rise of the Muslim Brotherhood. to development breakthroughs that have the potential to change millions of lives. The meeting was scheduled for early February. to WikiLeaks disclosures of diplomatic cables. Tunisia and even Jordan could come to power." Pointing to a range of challenges.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article/562996/201102111907/Egypts-Flight. “Clinton warns of 'uncharted territory' in wake of Egypt unrest”. bringing together U. "From the theft of confidential cables to 21st century protest movements. Margaret Scobey. Egypt. McCarthy warns that Effective diplomacy is critical to deal with the Egyptian crisis.cnn. because "we Washington (CNN) -figured it would be quiet." Clinton called for the unprecedented "Global Chiefs of Mission" meeting several months ago. killing critical diplomatic and military relationships.com/2011/POLITICS/02/02/sweep. “Editorial: Obama Botched Egypt — Here's How To Fix It”. That could even trigger a most dangerous war between Israel and Iran. http://www. they obviously must be moderates — so we can work with these guys!" Majority rule without liberty amounts to the tyranny of the majority — a chilling prospect in the Mideast.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS %3A+Politics%29) CJC The future of U. Too many cross currents and complexities.S. Investors Business Daily – 2/11 (Editorial Staff. “The Sweep: The risk of democracy in the Middle East”. Nobody expects that worst-case nightmare to come through. we are all in uncharted territory.egypt/index. ambassador to Egypt.S. But it's the only "democracy" the Brotherhood will back. February 2. some of which we are only beginning to understand.us. the . she joked. not just in Egypt but in the host of other countries on the verge of transformation. 2011. not a culture of governance.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 57/148 Cross-X. 02/11/2011." Even as news reports Wednesday showed protesters clashing on the streets of Cairo.investors. And how quickly that ground can shift under our feet. 2011. Clinton said "we have a tough road ahead.S. policy and interests in the region will largely depend on who ends up in power. ambassadors from around the world." And he exposes the preposterous State Department delusion that because alQaida operatives "figure the Brothers are soft. should now make the best of a bad situation. February 2.com/2011/POLITICS/02/02/us. was not able to attend the State Department meeting. democracy is a tool for acquiring power. CNN Staff. quietly helping Egypt's military stay in power for as long as it takes to ensure that Mubarak's successor isn't an Islamist enabler.cnn.htm) CJC "For Islamists. In a doomsday scenario." she said. Regardless of the outcome. diplomats Wednesday that "we are all in uncharted territory." US must ensure a peaceful transition now to prevent the unrest from rising creating a scenario for radicalization that would trigger war between Israel and Iran. Clinton added: "There are too many forces at work.challenges/index. CNN – 2/2 (Elise Labott and Josh Levs. Dougherty – 2/2 (Jill Dougherty. US diplomacy is stretched to the brink and need full focus to deal with a situation that can change quickly. with what's going on today. Turning serious at the end of her remarks.S. extremist Islamic factions in Egypt.
which is seems to be the catchphrase of the week for Middle East analysts.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. Supporting the status quo could embolden leaders to hold on. further radicalizes the Arab street and creates even more anger at the United States. . possibly becoming even more oppressive.com 58/148 Thursday File Obama administration has concluded that it must try to be on the right side of history. That could give way to a permanent resistance that creates even more pressure for chance.
February 14. added that the military had still not disclosed when the three-decade-old emergency law granting the government the right to arrest and hold people without formal charges or judicial oversight would be lifted. A western diplomat said that senior army officers. “Egyptian Army Calls Up Military Reservists to Help Keep Peace”. Although former President Mubarak ceded power to the army. Myriad youthful opposition groups have been holding almost round-the-clock meetings to craft and present a unified statement of their demands for reform to the military. They don’t want to rule indefinitely. On Saturday. 2011. the state-run television center. it remains unclear exactly what part the army will play in its role as the transitional government that Egyptians have demanded should lead to elections by September. http://www. apparently including its long-standing peace accord with Israel. Egypt’s autocratic ruler for almost 30 years. A western diplomat said that it was believed that former president Mubarak was still in his residence at the Egyptian seaside resort of Sharm el-Sheikh. political journalist. the Egyptian military officials leading the country through an unchartered period of political transition are stressing that they do not want to govern Egypt indefinitely or. including by the police.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 59/148 Cross-X. whose elections last fall have been widely denounced by domestic and international critics as fraudulent. however. Diplomats. Since then.” the diplomat said. which Egyptian sources have identified as stomach cancer. who demonstrated on Monday demanding higher wages and better working conditions. be responsible for Egypt’s crushing problems. the military government announced that it would abide by all treaties. and other strategic facilities throughout the country. Egypt -in the face of overwhelming numbers of protesters throughout Cairo and other Egyptian cities. have been stressing that “they are going to do what the people want. It also dissolved Egypt’s parliament. In a recent meeting with western diplomats. including Secretary of Defense Field Marshall Mohammed Tantawi. military police in their traditional camouflage uniforms and red berets have been guarding the U. government ministries.com Thursday File A2: Military Not Relinquish Power Diplomats are working with the military now. The call-up appeared to be related to the army’s continuing need to maintain stability in the absence of the civilian police. There have been labor strikes across the country. Mubarak has flown twice in as many years to Germany for treatment of an undisclosed medical condition. Embassy. The officers. In Washington. The call-up also reflects continuing political tensions in the country following the forced resignation of President Hosni Mubarak. it issued yet another communiqué announcing that it had suspended the constitution that has been structured to give Egypt’s president almost unlimited terms in office and authority and inhibits political opposition. but western diplomats in Cairo said they had no independent information about the state of his current condition.S. Most of Egypt’s civilian police officers fled their posts on January 28 CAIRO.com/world/2011/02/14/egyptianarmy-calls-military-reservists-help-peace/) CJC The Egyptian Army today called up thousands of military reservists as soldiers cleared Tahrir Square. . Egypt’s ambassador said this morning in a television interview that Mubarak’s health was deteriorating. Miller – 2/14 (Judith Miller. the diplomat said.foxnews. had repeatedly indicated that the army has been acting in good faith and has assured foreign governments that it does not seek a longterm role in governing the country. one diplomat suggested. On Sunday. the epicenter of the extraordinary revolution that has transformed Egypt and the political map of the Middle East.
“Time for Obama to press Mubarak”. He actively participated in the Camp David peace negotiations in 1978.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 60/148 Cross-X. http://dyn. In Tunisia as well. Babbin – 2/2 (Jed Babbin served as a Deputy Undersecretary of Defense under George H.cfm?uuid=1690BD3B49D6-43ED-ADDD-DE8AD70C9948) CJC So. leaving a vacuum that allowed for a great deal of post-revolutionary violence and radicalization.may pass into the radical Islamic sphere. Many of our most senior generals have longstanding relationships with their Egyptian comrades. February 2. U.realclearpolitics. And that can only happen if Mubarak steps down. the kind of bond that can only be achieved by serving side by side in training and military exercises. U. similarly in the Philippines and Indonesia. could weigh in as well — with the simple message that the prolonged transition envisaged by Mubarak does not seem viable.like Turkey before it . So Egypt need not turn out like Iran — where the shah’s military split and went down with him. If the Egyptian military acts soon — and in accord with the sentiment of the Egyptian people — they will emerge as a strong. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mike Mullen. would be an effective American influence on Egypt's immediate future. But rather that it can be the guarantor of a peaceful transition to a new. K2 Transition – Military Diplomacy with Egyptian military is critical to ensuring a stable transition. Turkey’s military. emerge from its ranks. This is not an unfamiliar role for militaries in moments of transition.S-style military. it is time for President Barack Obama to take the next step — to cash in on the close military-tomilitary relationship that has been forged between the United States and Egypt over the years. 2011. Now that military is the key to Egypt’s near-term future. He served on the National Security Council dealing with Middle East affairs in the Nixon and Carter administrations. Since 1979. Augusto Pinochet was ousted. the United States has completely reequipped and trained a new.com/articles/2011/02/02/egypts_future_will_be_decided_by_the_milit ary. The military is the only institution in Egypt that can convince him to do so – and assure him the dignified retirement from power that he apparently craves. Egypt . with a few bumpy moments. In the past. the military remains on the sidelines and allows a radical regime to take power.com/printstory.politico. That.S. 2011. we seem to be witnessing an encouraging example of the military helping with the transition to a new order. These officers. Diplomacy with the military is key to avoiding extremist from taking over the government. Now we need to think of it as a partner in helping to consolidate Egypt’s democratic transition. Whether it falls this week or in coming months. has played such a role. but the military was actually given guarantees by the new Chilean democrats that its corporate interests . or will. as is most likely. He is the author of several bestselling books including "Inside the Asylum. . Not that the new president of Egypt should.and even Pinochet’s person – would be respected as long as they did not block the transition to democracy and limited their role to upholding security. And the experienced former ambassador to Egypt. With one exception. Frank Wisner. “Egypt's Future Will Be Decided by the Military”. Obama has said enough and is just about on target." and "In the Words of Our Enemies. February 2.com Thursday File Dip.html) CJC It is not clear that Mubarak's regime will survive the week. Quandt is a politics professor at the University of Virginia. efforts to apply gentle pressure must now be followed by a more forceful message to those who can get Mubarak’s attention in a way that we have not. The crisis needs to be brought to an end soon. Egypt's immediate future will be decided by the Egyptian military. the U. In Chile. a discredited dictator was eased out (with American urging) and the military stayed on to provide stability for the new democracies. And we have paid for it – about $1 billion per year. respected force in the new Egypt. should be on the phone with their Egyptian comrades to offer assurances of aid and support if they choose to stand against a radical Islamic regime. But a few calls from Defense Secretary Robert Gates. And there is nothing America can do to prevent that. The key now is not a lot of public statements from the president. Quandt – 2/2 (William B. the hated dictator Gen. If. when I was serving in the Carter administration. perhaps CIA Director Leon Panetta to their counterparts might help. http://www.W.S.". and only that. if the president permits them. has looked to the Egyptian military as a partner primarily on regional security and anti-terrorism issues. Bush. democratic order.
an Egypt expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and an informal White House adviser. officials believe for now the military it will stay on the sidelines. Babbin – 2/2 (Jed Babbin served as a Deputy Undersecretary of Defense under George H. It was Sadat who braved the Arab currents to sign the Camp David Accords.com/articles/2011/02/02/egypts_future_will_be_decided_by_the_milit ary. took over. Two factors will control the result of the crisis that now envelops the Mubarak regime. .html? mod=rss_Politics_And_Policy) CJC Dunne. 2011.realclearpolitics. and the demonstrators are waiting for Washington to push Mr. who seized power in 1952.independently and in combination with Egyptian Islamists . even if only to quell the fighting.com Thursday File Diplomacy with Egyptian military is critical to a stable transition government. Sadat was assassinated by Muslim radicals in 1981 because of his willingness to make peace with Israel in the Camp David agreement. “Egypt's Future Will Be Decided by the Military”. leading to the 1967 Arab-Israeli war. He is the author of several bestselling books including "Inside the Asylum. said the White House needs to convince the Egyptian army to step in. is in a difficult spot with the protestors. "Nobody wants to be the first to make the hard decisions. http://www." and "In the Words of Our Enemies. The U. Nasser was a pan-Arabist.". When Nasser died in 1970. and perhaps the motivation. however. 2011. restore order and set up the new government. U. fervently attempting to ally Arabs in a unified front against Israel. sees the Egyptian military as likely the only institution that can guide a smooth and inclusive transition. Israel. one of his protégés. has been exerting pressure on the Egyptian military not to take sides. “White House Charts a New Plan”. the U. February 2. leaving it to the police and security forces to quell violence between anti-government protesters and Mubarak supporters. Bush. and the parallel Iranian goal of establishing a Muslim caliphate hasn't taken hold in Egypt yet because of the three men who have ruled it for nearly sixty years. is watching what happens with the demonstrations.to turn Egypt into another Syria or a satellite of Iran. Anwar alSadat. Mubarak aside. Staff Writers. officials believe the violence would worsen if the military intervened.W.wsj. Mubarak swept into power at Sadat's death. Wall Street Journal – 2/3 (JONATHAN WEISMAN And ADAM ENTOUS.S.S. FEBRUARY 3. The first is the Egyptian military. Dunne said. The military.com/article/SB10001424052748703960804576120064121963244. the first real peace agreement between Israel and a formerly-hostile neighbor. and not to crackdown on the protesters. Some U. Pan-Arabism has since disappeared except from the mind of Libya's Muammar Qaddafi. The Mubarak regime is a lineal descendant of Gamel Abdel Nasser's." Ms.S. experts said. many of whom have critiqued the Obama Michele administration's stutter-step embrace of regime change in Egypt. likewise.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 61/148 Cross-X.html) CJC The only stabilizing force is the Egyptian military which has the power. Since last week. http://online. The second is the efforts of Iran and Syria .S. Only the Egyptian military can ensure that the new government is not radical. to prevent Egypt from being subordinated by its Islamic neighbors.
2011. http://www.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 62/148 Cross-X. .html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss %2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS%3A+Politics%29) CJC The real difficulty. “Official: U.cnn.S. Rubin said. Egypt talk ways to 'move' political transition forward”.reaction/index. but at the same pushing to ensure armed extremist militias aren't allowed to claim the mantle of democratic legitimacy.obama. will come in the months ahead as U." Rubin said. February 3.com/2011/WORLD/africa/02/03/egypt.com Thursday File Sustained Diplomacy Checks Extremist Rise Continued diplomacy will be critical to ensure democratic elections and prevent extremist take over. when the fall of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi led to the rise of the fundamentalist regime still in power today. needs to make clear the Egyptian elections happen "come hell or high water.S..S. CNN – 2/3 (CNN Wire Staff. policymakers try to prevent Egypt from following the path Iran took after 1979. The U.
reuters. .com/article/2011/02/04/us-egypt-usaidUSTRE71175920110204? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Amid concerns that a wave of protests that erupted in Tunisia and then Egypt could spread to other Middle Eastern capitals. Feb 3 2011. Continued pressure on other allies for reform is critical to checking back spillover.on Thursday to discuss Egypt and to express support for his own recent reforms.another close U.S. in talks over possible Mubarak departure”.com Thursday File Dip Cap Checks Spillover Diplomatic capital is not limited to Egypt in the crisis. Obama phoned Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh to follow up his pledges of reform with concrete actions. part of a wave of change by authoritarian governments across the Middle East seeking to head off Egypt-style unrest. The White House said Obama also told Saleh it is imperative that Yemen take forceful action against al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.S. Reuters – 2/3 (Steve Holland and Susan Cornwell Staff. ally -. http://www. “U. Clinton spoke to Jordan's King Abdullah -.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 63/148 Cross-X.
html) six in ten surveyed by Pew believe that the economic situation will be better soon and that the recession is only temporary. Mohamed ElBaradei. The United States has little to no capacity to produce oil. http://www.S. envoy in Egypt spoke with ElBaradei: statement” Feb 1. the U. and many other economies into a deep.fcnp. Ambassador Margaret Scobey. The United States currency will become useless and will have no way of securing reserves. Reuters – 2/1 (“U. If the United States stopped getting foreign oil. there would of course be retaliation. The first thing that will happen after an economic collapse will be war over resources. "One such contact was between the ambassador and Mohamed ElBaradei today. and with five or more countries with nuclear weapons *****Impact Scenarios***** ***Suez Canal Shell*** . With five offical nations having nuclear weapons. The Peak Oil Crisis: A Mid-Year Review. Retired 30-year CIA analyst who has been following the peak oil story since 1999. The problem is that few are willing to consider seriously the accumulating evidence that Interestingly.com/opinions/will-an-economic-collapse-kill-you/ AD: 7-7-09 )ET Now its time to look at the consequences of a failing world economy.S. the government would go to no ends to secure more. few understand the proximity of the crisis. Editor of the daily Peak Oil News and the weekly Peak Oil Review.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 64/148 Cross-X. Once one nation launches a nuclear weapon. and the mission has been especially busy in the last several days to help convey our strong support for an orderly transition. like Russia or China.S. and four more likely to have them there could be major consequences of another world war.S. these wars would most likely involve nuclear weapons. ambassador to Cairo made contact with prominent Egyptian political activist Mohamed ElBaradei on Tuesday to discuss a political transition in Egypt. long-lasting depression.com. This alone vividly illustrates how poorly the true state of the global economic situation is understood and the size of the shock that most of us are in for. increasing oil prices and eventually oil shortages within the next few years are as inevitable as the sunrise. Nearly everyone will admit that continuing oil shortages and that high (above $100 a barrel) oil prices would be devastating to the prospects for economic recovery and that persisting very high (say above $200 a barrel) oil prices would send the U.com/commentary/national/6896-the-peak-oil-crisis-a-mid-year-review.S." the U.S. has demanded President Hosni Mubarak quit office and said he was ready to play a role in any shift to a democratic system in Egypt.N. closing the Suez Canal would cause oil price shocks and these Rising oil prices destroy the economy Whipple 7/14/2010 (Tom. Among those who appreciate that the world's petroleum resources are finite. A.reuters. Most of us have no thoughts about the issue other than the current price of a gallon of gas. "Our embassy in Cairo maintains an active outreach to a wide range of political and civil society representatives in Cairo. State Department is busy brokering a peaceful transition to democracy in Egypt now. C.S.com Thursday File A2: No Influence U. it is totatlly dependent on foreign oil. http://www. nuclear watchdog. State Department said in a statement. 2011. the retired head of the U. Department of State said. if there were a war with any other major power over oil. The have the influence necessary to support the transition." it CAIRO (Reuters) added in the statement sent to Reuters in Cairo.com/article/2011/02/01/us-egypt-usa-elbaradei-idUSTRE7107ZJ20110201? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC The U. referring to U. extend the Hilliker evidence. FNCP. one of the most highly respected analysts of peak oil issues in the United States. Extinction Broward 9 ((Member of Triond) http://newsflavor.
com 65/148 Thursday File there would most likely be a world nuclear war. The risk is so high that acting to save the economy is the most important issue facing us in the 21st century.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. .
Gibbs said no disruptions had been reported in the Suez Canal. stocks rose as investors focused on the expanding U.S.S.12. at 1.S. satisfied the situation in Egypt would not escalate into widespread violence or turmoil. warned on Monday that the escalating protests in Egypt could affect U. Brent crude oil futures surged to $101 a barrel.S. The broad Standard & Poor's 500 Index closed up 0. urges Egypt's Mubarak do more. Senator Jeff Bingaman.77 percent.286. as anxieties rose that protests in Egypt could spark instability across the Middle East and disrupt oil shipments through the Suez Canal. Egypt's Suez Canal allows the transport of crude oil and liquefied natural gas bound for the U. http://www. and other countries. a 28month high. Senate's energy panel. access to affordable energy supplies.S.com/article/2011/02/01/us-egypt-usaidUSTRE70R6A920110201?pageNumber=1) CJC The crisis is taking its toll on oil markets.S. . chairman of the U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 66/148 Cross-X. National security aides at the White House were monitoring the effect the unrest and uncertainty in Egypt may have on oil and financial markets. U. 2011. Reuters – 1/31 (Steve Holland and Andrew Quinn. If the canal were closed it would create price shocks and market disruption.reuters.com Thursday File Close Suez Canal = Price Shocks Egypt crisis is raising oil prices for fear of closing the Suez Canal. Jan 31. Staff. economy and rising earnings. “U. envoy in Cairo”.
http://www.000 barrels a day. Over an Imported Barrel”.com/member/daily/egyptian-unrest-leavesu-s-over-an-imported-barrel-20110131) CJC Egypt is in a unique position in the oil supply chain even though it produces only 700. 2011. longer routes. . The Suez Canal and Sumed pipeline serve as vital transportation arteries for global oil shipments. Harder – 2/1 (Amy Harder reports on energy and the environment for National Journal and moderates an expert blog on the topic as well. February 1.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 67/148 Cross-X. “Egyptian Unrest Leaves U.S. For now.com Thursday File Egypt K2 Oil Markets Egypt key to global Oil flows.nationaljournal. no evidence suggests that either of those avenues will be blocked. but Pumphrey said the risk could compel individual shippers to slow down shipments there or choose alternate.
washingtonpost. February 2.com Thursday File Egypt – Military K2 Suez Canal Egyptian military can prevent the closing of the Suez Canal with US influence. Washington Post – 2/2 (Karen DeYoung Washington Post Staff Writer. and Mullen spokesman Capt. the Egyptian military's chief of staff. Mike Mullen. through which much of the West's imported oil travels. John Kirby said the chairman "expressed confidence in the Egyptian military's ability to provide for their country's security." .com/wpdyn/content/article/2011/02/02/AR2011020206619. 'can't dictate events'”.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 68/148 Cross-X.html?hpid=topnews) CJC Concern was also growing about possible interference in traffic along the Suez Canal. U. both internally and throughout the Suez Canal area. http://www. 2011. “As crisis deepens in Egypt.S. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Sami Enan. Adm. had his second conversation this week with Lt. Gen.
politico.com Thursday File Impact Magnifier: Saudi Arabia Continued instability in Egypt risks revolt and uprising in Saudi Arabia causing megaoil shocks causing the global economy to nose dive. Saudi Arabia not only is the world’s largest exporter.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 69/148 Cross-X.com/news/stories/0211/48698. experts have warned about the fragility of the House of Saud. And not even because it controls the Suez Canal. petrodollar-funded entitlement programs. http://www. this could be as devastating as a second heart attack is for a fragile patient just recovering from a first one. Egypt is relevant to the oil market because it may be a bellwether for the disgruntled masses in Saudi Arabia. every recession except one was preceded by a sharp rise in oil prices. In today’s economy. Saudi Arabia is the oil market’s only firefighter. Inspired by the events elsewhere in the Sunni Muslim world. . through which 1. But if the fire station is on fire.8 million barrels. If the Saudis should decide to emulate their Egyptian brethren. studies show. And instability in that oil kingdom is how mega-oil shocks are made. it also holds 70 percent of the world’s spare production capacity. February 3. For decades. a new oil crisis might be upon us. In other words. Luft – 2/3 (Gal Luft is executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security. A new oil shock would cause our economy to nose-dive back into a recession. Not because Egypt is a major oil exporter. capable of supplying the market when others falter. Since World War II. To curtail their opposition. 2011.html#ixzz1Cz60q1YQ) CJC The demonstrations in Egypt and elsewhere in the Arab world could well be the harbinger of an excruciating oil crisis. It isn’t. about 5 percent of the overall global tanker trade. “What if Saudi Arabia erupts?”. this social contract could face a challenge at the worst possible time — when the House of Saud’s top echelon is ill and geriatric. Egypt produces less than 1 percent of the world’s oil. travels daily. while taming the Wahhabi establishment through charitable contributions to religious institutions worldwide. Saudi monarchs have placated their subjects with cradle-to-grave. there will be no one to save the neighborhood.
And Egypt offers an opportunity for soft power — thanks to the courage and resilience of Egyptians who rallied peacefully for almost a month to prompt Mubarak's departure. And certainly as an alternative to the Iraq model employed by the George W. “Egypt 'revolution' opens opportunity for U. that will remain the case for the foreseeable future.S. etc. however. The United States has much influence with Egypt's military leaders. B. and they are more than justified to feel vindicated. selective engagers. Christopher Layne warned of these dangers of primacy and called for retrenchment. either because the United States lacks the power to maintain its primacy and should withdraw from its global commitments. In Defense of Primacy. The United States has overwhelming military capabilities and wealth in comparison to other states or likely potential alliances. If the United States adopted such a strategy. he rates nowhere near the likes of a brutal despot like Saddam Hussein. They include isolationists.S. it's the Egypt case that stands front-and-center now.com/2011-02-15/news/fl-egyptsoft-power-obama-editorial-a20110215_1_soft-power-egyptian-people-egyptian-revolution) CJC The euphoric moment is passing. Sun-Sentinel – 2/15 (Sun Sentinel Editorial Board. It is their achievement that opened the window to international soft power.sun-sentinel. the Egyptian military has suspended parliament and the country's constitution. and offshore balancers. must be avoided. There are two seapower to defend its interests. The National Interest. one could argue that soft power's limits were sadly on display during the protests in Iran last year. Those arguing against primacy claim that the United States should retrench. Many claim a sense of pride that they achieved their aims non-violently. and Egypt's revolt will recede from the front pages. it would be a profound strategic mistake that would lead to far greater instability and war in the world. February 15. http://articles. what would have worked — or was needed — in one country would not automatically apply to another. Egypt will be a test case for US soft-power. owing to aid and training the past few decades. A GRAND strategy of ensuring . As such.S. At the outset of this discussion. economic and military leader. economic and soft power capabilities. As disliked as Mubarak became. in any of its guises. US hegemony solves all problems Thayer 06 Associate Professor in the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies at Missouri State University [Bradley. Barring some disaster or tremendous folly. That leverage must now be used skillfully to assist and ensure a fair election that places a legitimate government in place. If so. The euphemism denotes the use of non-military tools — diplomacy. It is an opportunity that can't be missed. But critical issues in any discussion of America's grand strategy: Can America remain the dominant state? Should it strive to do this? America can remain dominant due to its prodigious military. imperil American security and deny the United States and its allies the benefits of primacy. military commitments to centers of economic might. That means the next phase in Egypt will have begun — the transition to a democracy — and that will be an opportunity for the United States to employ and test "soft power. action--but they fail to realize what is good about American primacy. Military leaders say they will run the country until elections are held in six months. textbook models don't exist. or because the maintenance of primacy will lead the United States into the trap of "imperial overstretch. Far from it. December (lexis)] A grand strategy based on American primacy means ensuring the United States stays the world's number one power--the diplomatic. With few exceptions. in fact.S. who want U. and can't be allowed to be lost.com Thursday File ***Leadership Shell*** A. Nonetheless. Failure would undermine US soft-power moving forward. aid. The price and risks of primacy are reported in newspapers every day.1 Those arguing for a grand strategy of retrenchment are a diverse lot. Bush administration.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 70/148 Cross-X." In the previous issue of The National Interest. US must remain flexible and constantly engaged to influence the military to ensure a transition to democracy. The totality of that equation of power answers the first issue. The ouster of Hosni Mubarak from power last week opens an opportunity to position the Egyptian "revolution" as a soft power showcase. soft power”. Egypt could be the watershed for an Obama doctrine of soft power. 2011. — rather than overt force to achieve U. objectives. hard power debate of recent years? The soft power phrase became vogue in the aftermath of serious divisions over the war in Iraq. even those who advocate retrenchment acknowledge this. who want no foreign military commitments. And." Remember that term? Remember the soft power vs. who want a modified form of selective engagement that would have the United States abandon its landpower presence abroad in favor of relying on airpower and retrenchment. So the debate revolves around the desirability of maintaining American primacy. Such is the case with international relations and diplomacy — cookie-cutter. In the aftermath of Mubarak's resignation. Proponents of retrenchment focus a great deal on the costs of U. It is the Egyptian people who are the true heroes of this peaceful uprising. the benefits that stem from it are not. it's critical to acknowledge that Egypt is not Iraq.
a key tenet of the Bush Doctrine is to attack terrorists far from America's shores and not to wait while they use bases in other countries to plan and train for attacks against the United States itself. in part because they shoulder some of its burdens. and so it is likely to refrain from testing the United States directly for the foreseeable future because China's power benefits.com 71/148 Thursday File American primacy takes as its starting point the protection of the U. a strategy based on primacy focuses on engaging enemies overseas. from the international order U. Indeed. China proclaims that it will. Iran. Allies are a great asset to the United States. predators prefer to eat the weak rather than confront the strong. this is not out of any sense of altruism. These interests include ensuring that critical resources like oil flow around the world. or any country. U. If there is no diplomatic solution to the threats that confront the United States. retrenchment will make the United States less secure than the present grand strategy of primacy. and it cannot hide from threats. Afghanistan and Iraq stand in contrast to the UN's inability to save the people of Darfur or even to conduct any military campaign to realize the goals of its charter. And when enemies must be confronted.2 This is not an advantage that should be relinquished lightly. In the anarchic world of the animal kingdom.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. The other states are far weaker than China. as Barry Posen has noted. one of which is America's ability to create coalitions of like-minded states to free Kosovo. as we shall see. Simply by declaring that the United States is "going home". Of 192 countries. The same is true of the anarchic world of international politics.S. A remarkable fact about international politics today--in a world where American primacy is clearly and unambiguously on display--is that countries want to align themselves with the United States. primacy creates. Only the "Gang of Five" may be expected to consistently resist the agenda and actions of the United States. Washington cannot call a "time out". if necessary.S. This is because threats will exist no matter what role America chooses to play in international politics. China is clearly the most important of these states because it is a rising great power. while denying those common avenues to its enemies. the costs of power projection for the United States and its allies are reduced. Khan proliferation network are in sharp relief to the typically toothless attempts by the UN to halt proliferation. in most cases. invade Iraq or to stop proliferation through the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI ). In contrast. homeland and American global interests. Whether they are terrorists. does not mean that others will respect American wishes to retreat. Indeed. where it can be stymied by opponents. for example. but because doing so allows them to use the power of the United States for their own purposes--their own protection. thus abandoning its commitments or making unconvincing half-pledges to defend its interests and allies. regime that is the source of . countries like India. at present. it is no surprise to see NATO in Afghanistan or the Australians in East Timor. on-the-ground presence that cannot be achieved by offshore balancing. Of course. allowing the United States to shape the behavior of states and international institutions. For three of the "Gang of Five" cases--Venezuela. Thus. rogue states or rising powers. Never before in its history has this country. But China may not be confident those strategies would work. power. U.S. and a big change from the Cold War when the ratio was about 1. primacy--and the bandwagoning effect--has also given are the "Gang of Five": China. That is a ratio of almost 17 to one (85 to five).S. then the conventional and strategic military power of the United States is what protects the country from such threats. commands the "global commons"--the oceans. Such influence comes in many forms. The quiet effectiveness of the PSI in dismantling Libya's WMD programs and unraveling the A. Cuba. history shows that threats must be confronted. a strategy based on retrenchment will not be able to achieve these fundamental objectives of the United States. Indeed.8 to one of states aligned with the United States versus the Soviet Union. This requires a physical. North Korea and Venezuela. resort to other mechanisms of challenging the United States.S. Iran. But even Beijing is intimidated by the United States and refrains from openly challenging U. Doing so allows the United States to operate with allies outside of the UN. American-led wars in Kosovo. had us extensive influence in international politics. that the global trade and monetary regimes flourish and that Washington's worldwide network of allies is reassured and protected. stabilize Afghanistan.S. do not agree with all policy choices made by the United States. primacy is secured because America. such as toward Iran. Of course. away from American soil. Q. As a consequence. including asymmetric strategies such as targeting communication and intelligence satellites upon which the United States depends. Cuba--it is an anti-U. but New Delhi is friendly to Washington. To make such a declaration implies weakness and emboldens aggression. They so many allies. the world's airspace and outer space--allowing the United States to project its power far from its borders. You can count with one hand countries opposed to the United States. or to gain greater influence. 84 are allied with America--their security is tied to the United States through treaties and other informal arrangements--and they include almost all of the major economic and military powers. and the robustness of the United States' conventional and strategic deterrent capabilities is increased.
but nonetheless.S.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 72/148 relations. Everything we think of when we consider the current international order--free trade. Indeed. the country itself is not intrinsically anti-American.4 As a witness to the failed alternative . a change of regime in Caracas. stabilizing influence on America's interests in the short run is open to question. should not even be attempted. With its allies. Perhaps democratic Arab states would be more opposed to Israel. primacy. and benefits defense as well because the size of the economy makes the defense burden manageable. And so. American primacy helps keep a number of complicated relationships aligned--between Greece and Turkey. along with the growth in the the United States has labored to create an economically liberal worldwide network characterized by free trade and commerce. in Iraq in January 2005. one gathers from the argument. Latin America. maximizes efficiencies and growth. Lal now recognizes that the only way to bring relief to desperately poor countries of the Third World is through the adoption of free market economic policies and globalization. States. In that they are dead wrong and need to be reminded of one of history's most significant lessons: Appalling things happen when international orders collapse. the likelihood of any type of conflict is significantly reduced. India and Pakistan. During the Cold War. Perhaps the greatest testament to the benefits of the economic network comes from Deepak Lal. The first free elections were held It was the military power of the United States that put Iraq on the path to democracy. respect for international property rights. which are facilitated through American primacy. liberal democracies are more likely to align with the United States and be sympathetic to the American worldview.S. the Palestinian Authority and Egypt. Hitler succeeded the order established at Versailles. such as in Darfur. This is not because democracies do not have clashing interests.S. leadership. Of course. Washington fostered democratic governments in Europe. South Korea and Japan. Tehran or Havana could very well reorient THROUGHOUT HISTORY. By all accounts. labeling such an effort a modern form It is the obligation of Bush's critics to explain why democracy is good enough for Western states but not for the rest.S. but a Pax Americana does reduce war's likelihood.5 million Afghans. U. Second. who started his career confident in the socialist ideology of post-independence India. Rather. Morocco. Retrenchment proponents seem to think that the current system can be maintained without the current amount of U. Scholars and statesmen have long recognized the irenic effect of power on the anarchic world of international politics. Abandoning the positions of his youth.S. The first has been a more peaceful world. once states are governed democratically. Indonesia and Australia. but democratic progress has been made in Algeria. the liberal order created by the United States will end just as assuredly. Wars still occur where Washington's interests are not seriously threatened. spreading democracy helps maintain U. power behind it. The Dark Ages followed Rome's collapse. diplomat and researcher at the World Bank. The economic stability and prosperity that stems from this economic order is a global public good from which all states benefit. American power gives the United States the ability to spread democracy and other elements of its ideology of liberalism. growing democratization--is directly linked to U.3 So. democratic states are good for their citizens as well as for advancing the interests of the United In addition. in general. and. it is because they are more open." Consequently. Britain or the United States today. The United States created this network not out of altruism but for the benefit and the economic well-being of America.S. Iraq. power. and mobility of capital and labor markets. Today. more transparent and more likely to want to resolve things amicably in concurrence with U. even though remnant Taliban forces threatened them. Critics have faulted the Bush Administration for attempting to spread democracy in the Middle East. it is important to note what those good things are. Economic spin-offs foster the development of military technology. a former Indian foreign service number of democratic states around the world has been the growth of the global economy. most notably France and West Germany. Israel and Egypt. Doing so is a source of much good for the countries concerned as well as the United States because. particularly war's worst form: great power wars. Now even the Middle East is increasingly democratic. a robust monetary regime. This economic order forces American industries to be competitive. whether democracy in the Middle East will have a peaceful or of tilting at windmills. Without U. In addition to ensuring the security of the United States and its allies. They may not yet look like Western-style democracies. helping to ensure military prowess. The United States has brought democracy to Afghanistan. As country and western great Ral Donner sang: "You don't know what you've got (until you lose it). the march of democracy has been impressive. their people would be better off. leadership reduced friction among many states that were historical antagonists. Asia and the Caucasus. Third.com Thursday File the problem. 40 percent of them women. increasing respect for human rights. Indeed they do. This is not to say it fulfills Woodrow Wilson's vision of ending all war. as John Owen noted on these pages in the Spring 2006 issue. particularly the poorest states in the Third World. power. where 8. Cross-X. Lebanon. Kuwait. voted in a critical October 2004 election. peace and stability have been great benefits of an era where there was a dominant power--Rome. American primacy within the international system causes many positive outcomes for Washington and the world.
de facto. it left a lasting impression about America. No other force possesses the communications capabilities or global logistical reach of the U. a tremendous earthquake and tsunami occurred in the Indian Ocean near Sumatra. an enormous earthquake struck Kashmir. Fourth and the United States. military responded immediately.000 people. UN peacekeeping operations depend on the United States to supply UN forces. polls of Pakistani opinion have found that more people are favorable toward the United States than unfavorable. military. volcanic eruption. Before the tsunami. typhoon or tsunami. military is the earth's "911 force"--it serves. medical aid.com Thursday File economic systems. drought.S.S. The United States was the first to respond with aid.S.S. has been willing to use its power not only to advance its interests but to promote the welfare of people all over the globe.S. and in poll after poll. disease treatment and prevention as well as forensic assistance to help identify the bodies of those killed. the U. food. military to South and Southeast Asia for many months to help with the aftermath of the disaster. killing about 74. airmen and marines responded by providing water. . 80 percent of Indonesian public opinion was opposed to the United States. For the first time since 9/11. while support for Al-Qaeda dropped to its lowest level. Washington followed up with a large contribution of aid and deployed the U. To help those in need. In October 2005. Cross-X. killing some 300. In fact. there is a clearly positive impact on Muslim opinion of the United States. for the United States humanitarian missions are the equivalent of a blitzkrieg. About 20. 80 percent had a favorable opinion of America. Whenever there is a natural disaster. the money was well-spent When people in the Muslim world witness the U.000 U. On the day after Christmas in 2004. the United States assists the countries in need. Indeed. military has participated in over fifty operations since the end of the Cold War--and most of those missions have been humanitarian in nature. as the world's police. Indonesians still have overwhelmingly positive views of the United States.S. flood. military conducting a humanitarian mission. Two years after the disaster. diverting helicopters fighting the War on Terror in nearby Afghanistan to bring relief as soon as possible. sailors. The United States is the earth's leading source of positive externalities for the world. Lal is one of the strongest academic proponents of American primacy due to the economic prosperity it provides. earthquake. The U.S. As the War on Terror is a war of ideas and opinion as much as military action. after it. but it also had a real impact on the War on Terror. the United States also provided financial aid to Pakistan. because it helped people in the wake of disasters. and. American generosity has done more to help the United States fight the War on Terror than almost any other measure. military could have accomplished this Herculean effort. in seeking primacy.000 people and leaving three million homeless. as one might expect from those witnessing the munificence of the United States. Whether in Indonesia or Kashmir.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 73/148 finally.S. The U. soldiers. the global paramedic and the planet's fire department. Only the U.
S. President Barack Obama’s call to the “win the future” in his State of the Union address resonates deeply regarding America’s role in the Middle East. a bridge to Europe. Institute of Peace. February 1. A regional re- alignment is shifting the contours of power and influence from the Levant to the Gulf. The small Arab sheikhdom of Qatar is also exerting disproportionate influence.-Egyptian counterterrorism work”. February 13. and possibly positioned to reprise this role as Lebanon once again contends with mounting tensions.S.Leadership US effective response to Egypt is critical to maintaining regional ties in the Middle East critical to its leadership. “Winning the future in a new Mideast”. the contours of the U. Washington is facing a new reality in the Arab world. It is spearheading a free trade zone encompassing Turkey. and Yemen reflect tectonic regional shifts that U.com Thursday File Ext . Lebanon. Instead. A. These protests are remarkable. They provide critical intelligence for our success to prevent attacks. the Muslim Brotherhood is likely to gain influence if free For decades. http://www. It owns Al Jazeera. Muslim Brotherhood takeover would close that Intel window. Qatar has also played a key mediating role – helping to bring together Lebanon’s fractious factions in May 2008 when the country appeared on the verge of another civil war. a staunch American ally. These rolling popular protests are the most dramatic examples of the region’s changing tides.S. an end to torture and repression and for legitimate governments that can represent their aspirations. vantage point – namely the ascendance of the militant Shiite group Hezbollah in Lebanon accompanied by Syria’s resurgence there from the nadir of its influence in 2005. 2011. not least because of the impassioned calls for dignity and respect by people whose governments have long treated them with contempt. signals a new era in regional relations. Moreover. the Arabic language satellite network that has broadcast from Egypt for the past eight days. Analysts say a more democratic Egyptian government will have to be responsive to a public that may oppose such special and close ties with Washington. and an important model of Islamist democracy to the Arab world.com/wpdyn/content/article/2011/02/12/AR2011021203581. intelligence agencies.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 74/148 Cross-X.politico. This seminal moment in the Middle East demands that the United States be bold and innovative rather than relying on a reflexive response to the changes—both dramatic and subtle—that are now re-shaping that region. demanding an end to his regime. With the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak. Yacoubian – 2/1 (Mona Yacoubian is senior adviser to the Center for Conflict Management at the U.washingtonpost. The stakes are nothing less than the future of American leadership in the region. Once reviled by many in the West as a supporter of Al Qaeda. Continuing partnership with Egypt is critical to counterterrorism operations globally.html?hpid=topnews) CJC Egypt's government has been a critical partner for U. In particular. Yet. Washington Post – 2/13 (Mary Beth Sheridan and Joby Warrick. Turkey has also exerted its influence to promote regional trade and investment. “Mubarak resignation throws into question U. policymakers must grasp if the United States is to exert influence and remain relevant in this “new” Middle East. Other trends are not as positive from an U. Jordan. The dynamics now spawning protests in Algeria. http://dyn.S. the network is now being celebrated for insuring that the world can watch Egyptians make history.cfm?uuid=EC73B7BB-6C56-41A0-8F05-AD2986A02AE3) CJC President Hosni Mubarak’s speech Tuesday is unlikely to assuage the hundreds of thousands of Egyptians gathered in Cairo’s Tahrir Square.-Egyptian relationship may well be redrawn. ***Terrorism Shell*** . Their demands are not the “bread and butter” issues that typify Arab world street protests. Washington Post Staff Writers. Rather. Now the future of that cooperation is in question. Indeed. Turkey’s role as a key arbiter among Middle East players. the United States must recognize this shifting regional alignment if it is to leverage any of these changes to its advantage. 2011. Syria. these are pleas for greater freedoms. and Jordan that could help spur badly-needed economic growth and job creation.S. The unprecedented popular demonstrations Egyptian that already expelled one Arab leader in Tunisia and may well be on the verge of unseating another regime in Egypt mark a watershed in the region from which there is no return. sharing information on extremist groups such as al-Qaeda and working hand in glove on counterterrorism operations.S.com/printstory.
the religionization of politics. Unlike their historical counterparts. The argument here is that law-enforcement efforts and military retaliation inevitably will fuel more brutal acts of violent revenge. & Director @ Inter-University for Terrorism Studies. The first illusion is that terrorism can be greatly reduced.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 75/148 Cross-X. double standards of morality.g.com Thursday File and fair elections are held. . Washington Times. The Islamist group has renounced violence but is openly hostile to Israel and may call for more independence from U. 1940: "Victory at all costs. Likewise. Two myths in particular must be debunked immediately if an effective counterterrorism "best practices" strategy can be developed [e. provided the root causes of conflicts .are addressed. social and economic . defused a "ticking bomb. recruitment. strengthening international cooperation]. weak punishment of terrorists. chemical. Israel's targeted killing of Mohammed Sider. there is no survival. if not eliminated completely. operational command and control] will only increase terrorism." The assassination of Ismail Abu Shanab . the U. funding. training. in violation of fundamental human rights of the noncombatant segment of societies. August 28. military operation in Iraq eliminated Saddam Hussein's regime as a state sponsor of terror. Similarly.S. despite the collapse of the Oslo Agreements of 1993 and numerous acts of terrorism triggered by the second intifada that began almost three years ago. such as lack of a universal definition of terrorism. as well as scores of other countries affected by the universal nightmare of modern terrorism surprised by new terrorist "surprises"? There are many reasons. Prof. a former State Department Middle East expert who is now at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.." Clearly. if this perception continues to prevail. government that follows the rule of the Caliphs. but its stated objective is to "unite all Muslims and establish a The second myth is that strong action against terrorist infrastructure [leaders. thus far at least. "How will cooperation with the United States on counterterrorism develop in the view of these new constraints? I would argue the space will contract. Similarly.political. propaganda. It is not surprising. and the exploitation of the media by terrorist propaganda and psychological warfare. For example. regional and global security concerns. the Hebron commander of the Islamic Jihad. victory in spite of terror." said Aaron David Miller. contemporary terrorists have introduced a new scale of violence in terms of conventional and unconventional threats and impact. therefore." should be tolerated if not glorified. nuclear and cyber] with its serious implications concerning national. Palestinians religious movements [e. "give me liberty and I will give you death. Hamas. there is the danger it will paralyze governments and thereby The prudent application of force has been demonstrated to be an effective tool for short. past experience provides useful lessons for a realistic future strategy. Osama bin Laden's international network not only opposes the presence of American military in the Arabian Peninsula and Iraq. Even the United States and Israel have for decades tended to regard Last week's brutal suicide bombings in Baghdad and Jerusalem have once again illustrated dramatically that terrorism as a mere tactical nuisance or irritant rather than a critical strategic challenge to their national security concerns. analysts say. Thus. The internationalization and brutalization of current and future terrorism make it clear we have entered an Age of Super Terrorism [e. The conventional illusion is that terrorism must be justified by oppressed people seeking to achieve their goals and consequently the argument advanced by "freedom fighters" anywhere. In sum. radiological. policies. 2001. Islamic Jihad] and secular entities [such as Fatah's Tanzim and Aqsa Martyr Brigades]] wish not only to resolve national grievances [such as Jewish settlements.a top Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip who was directly responsible for several suicide bombings including the latest bus attack in Jerusalem disrupted potential terrorist operations.. Jacob) the international community failed. B. victory however long and hard the road may be: For without victory. biological. to understand the magnitude and implications of the terrorist threats to the very survival of civilization itself. “Terrorism Myths and Realities”. This traditional rationalization of "sacred" violence often conceals that the real purpose of terrorist groups is to gain political power through the barrel of the gun.g. For instance. it behooves those countries victimized by terrorism to understand a cardinal message communicated by Winston Churchill to the House of Commons on May 13. Lexis. weapons.and long-term deterrence of terrorism.g. Jerusalem] but primarily to destroy the Jewish state. Why are the United States and Israel." encourage further terrorist attacks. are still "shocked" by each suicide attack at a time of intensive diplomatic efforts to revive the moribund peace process through the now revoked cease-fire arrangements [hudna]. including misunderstanding of the manifold specific factors that contribute to terrorism's expansion. The impact is extinction.S. that on September 11. Israel and its citizens. Americans were stunned by the unprecedented tragedy of 19 al Qaeda terrorists striking a devastating blow at the center of the nation's commercial and military powers. right of return. particularly in democratic societies. Alexander ‘03 (Yonah-.
this will never be the same.html?hpid=topnews) CJC Egypt's intelligence cooperation is extensive. noted that during the Cold War." he said. a terrorism expert at Georgetown University." In addition to passing on intelligence. http://www. And the Egyptians have built up a trove of information on al-Qaeda and other radical Islamist groups in the Middle East. ally. however. the United States had a window into the Soviet Union through Iran. Mubarak's government played an important role in containing the Palestinian group Hamas. "A different government in Cairo may not see Iran as quite the same kind of threat. 2001." according to Jane's intelligence information service. And Egypt served as a counterweight to Iran. since the United States and many governments no longer wanted to be associated with it. 2011.-Egyptian counterterrorism work”.S. Its security services have numerous sources in places where the U. attacks. Washington Post Staff Writers.S. by blocking the smuggling of arms and militants into Gaza and supporting Israel's blockade of the strip. Hoffman said. officials secretly "rendered" terrorism suspects to countries such as Egypt for interrogation.S. "Whatever happens next. Egypt's security services have worked closely on operations with their U. Or they might just look for ways to use Iran as a foreign-policy lever" in their relationship with the West. In the region.com/wpdyn/content/article/2011/02/12/AR2011021203581. according to analysts. particularly since the Sept. Human rights groups have denounced the practice because of the notorious torture record of those nations' security services. 11.S. Radical takeover means the US is fighting blind. they are the best. . Hoffman said the use of rendition has been on the decline. counterparts.washingtonpost. government does not.S. The Egyptian General Intelligence Service "has the reputation of being one of the best-informed intelligence agencies on Islamist fundamentalism and its international dimensions. such as Gaza and Sudan. "We have the same kind of window into Iran and other countries via the Egyptians. then a strong U. “Mubarak resignation throws into question U. The cooperation became public after revelations surfaced that U.com Thursday File Egypt Intel = Best There is no other country that can replace Egypt’s intelligence system. Washington Post – 2/13 (Mary Beth Sheridan and Joby Warrick.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 76/148 Cross-X. February 13. Bruce Hoffman.
That narrative holds that authoritarian proAmerican governments should be deposed by violent jihad. .S. MARK LANDLER and MARK MAZZETTI. Effective diplomacy in Egypt is critical to a peaceful resolution of the crisis that renews our diplomatic credibility which is critical to fighting terrorism.com/2011/01/31/egyptian-crisis-biggest-foreign-test-yet-for-obamaadministratio/) CJC Officials were "a little bit flustered at first" by the protests -.but Boston University international relations professor Richard Augustus Norton said overall. “There’s part of this that’s dangerous to Al Qaeda. "We have closed our eyes to Mubarak because he has been useful to us in other ways. leaked cables about Egypt illustrate a complex relationship of subtle shifts between coddling and arm-twisting. http://www. February 2." said Marina Ottaway." said Nathan Brown. that does huge damage to the Al Qaeda narrative. “Egyptian Crisis Biggest Foreign Test Yet for Obama Administration”. director of the Middle East program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell refused to criticize how the administration was handling the crisis. Algeria and other dictatorial regimes in the region that the United States has taken it easy on in order to secure help for fighting terrorism. The United States is heavily reliant on foreign partners.com/2011/02/03/world/middleeast/03diplomacy. Or perhaps not. The same realpolitik has been in play in the relation with Yemen.com Thursday File Egypt – Counterterrorism Radicalization in Egypt would undermine US counterterrorism efforts. the administration has done a good job of reacting. an expert on Arab politics at George Washington University. who was a top counterterrorism official during George W.especially as practiced in the Middle East -. NY Times – 2/2 (HELENE COOPER. 1/31/2011. and officials and outside experts said that losing Mr. For the United States. Political Analyst for Politics Daily.has complicated the administration's response to the popular uprising in Egypt. Bush’s administration.html?_r=1&hp) CJC the unfolding crisis is about much more than just a rift with an ally. Mubarak or President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen would deal a short-term blow to its counterterrorism campaign. http://www.” said Juan Zarate of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Republican leaders backed up that assessment. “If the street protests lead to a peaceful. The dual nature of diplomacy -. 2011. Just as WikiLeaks has been credited with setting off the revolution in Tunisia.politicsdaily.and appears to be doing behind the scenes -.” he said. Foreign Policy”.Vice President Joe Biden told the PBS News Hour that Mubarak is not a dictator -. pluralistic transition. “Sudden Split Recasts U. Stone – 1/31 (Andrea Stone.is communicate "the hopelessness of the situation to President Mubarak. The best the White House can do -. With the popular revolts in Egypt and Yemen — and a government already deposed in Tunisia — American counterterrorism officials are concerned that radical factions in those countries could find a new foothold amid the chaos. A peaceful solution undermines Al Qaeda’s narrative.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 77/148 Cross-X.nytimes.
com Thursday File Yemen Spillover Spillover is happening in Yemen. a longtime U." Obama said.com/article/2011/02/15/us-egypt-iran-obama-idUSTRE71E4IG20110215? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Anti-government demonstrations also simmered Tuesday in Yemen and Bahrain. "If you're governing these countries. Staff Writers. two key U.reuters. as opposed to Iran's example'. "We have sent a strong message to our allies in the region saying.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 78/148 Cross-X. Reuters – 2/15 (Matt Spetalnick and Patricia Zengerle." Obama said. he urged all governments in the region to deal peacefully with protests.S. a critical US ally. as the pro-democracy fervor that toppled Mubarak rippled across the Middle East. we're concerned about stability throughout the region. allies with longtime autocratic rulers. 'Let's look at Egypt's example. you've got to get out ahead of change. 2011. Feb 15. . as the Egyptian military had done. "Obviously. http://www. you can't be behind the curve.S. foe. “ Obama slams Iran government and praises Egypt army”." But seizing the chance to put Iran. on the spot.
though Hosni Mubarak is no longer the president of Egypt. a violent murder that pitched his divided nation further into turmoil. the al-Qaeda sanctuary is ground zero in the U. Bahrain and Iran. 1/31/2011. http://www. Jordan could be next. http://www.html THE torturous road to peace in the Middle East becomes more excruciating every day and the cumulative effect of events in the region over the past week offer little hope for any reduction in what appear to be increasingly flammable tensions. Political Analyst for Politics Daily. especially Yemen. Iran. It's really hard to tell." B.cbsnews. Mr Ghanem's death introduces an unwelcome element of instability ahead of tomorrow's crucial presidential elections. Middle East is powder keg. and by implication its ally. why can't it happen elsewhere?" Hamid told CBS News senior White House correspondent Bill Plante. As arguably A. the White House and diplomats at the State Department have struggled to keep up with developments." he said. especially if an anti-Syrian candidate is elected. Already a basket case before recent street protests. Hamid added that the United States should try to adapt its foreign policy accordingly. Syria ***Instability Shell*** . “Will Egypt's Revolution Spark Domino Effect?”. At the same time. As Plante noted. protesters remain on the streets in that country in an effort to remind the military "who's in charge of Egypt's revolution. Jordan.com Thursday File Spillover -> Yemen = Terrorism Preventing spillover from Egypt is critical to keeping terrorist hotspots from collapsing like Yemen. at Syria. Protests have been seen in recent days in Algeria. The killing has been widely condemned by the international community and the finger pointed.com/8301-503544_162-20031888503544. National security officials huddled with Egypt experts in the White House while the president spoke by phone to leaders in the region. February 14.com.politicsdaily.theage. http://www. CBS News – 2/14 (Genevieve Kermani. The match that lights the flame may well be last Thursday's assassination of Lebanese MP Antoine Ghanem." Hamid pointed to the "end of this so-called stability-paradigm. fear the revolution that began in Tunisia could target them next.S. Yemen and Jordan. Staff Writer CBS News. His death was the latest in a string of attacks against prominent critics of Lebanon's neighbour and former powerbroker Syria. 2001. the talk now is of war. Continued Egyptian protests are sparking a wave of uprising across the Middle East diplomacy will be critical to keep stability. "We're seeing protests emerge everywhere. Stone – 1/31 (Andrea Stone. Yemen.com/2011/01/31/egyptian-crisis-biggest-foreign-test-yet-for-obamaadministratio/) CJC the most serious foreign policy crisis of the Obama administration unfolded at breakneck speed in the streets of Cairo and other Egyptian cities. Shadi and what I think people are saying is if it first happened in Tunisia.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 79/148 Cross-X.html) CJC Hamid of the Brookings Doha Center said on "Washington Unplugged" Monday that the revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia could spark similar outcomes throughout the Middle East. More importantly. 2011." he said.au/news/editorial/tempers-must-remain-cool-as-the-middle-east-heatsup/2007/09/23/1190486129857. among others. "We're seeing protests all throughout the region. Those in Saudi Arabia. and now that it's happened in Egypt. the most notable being the 2005 killing of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri. people are drawing inspirations from the Egyptian model." stating that countries throughout the Middle East are suddenly taking new approaches to respond to their citizens' needs. If anything. they have kept an eye out for trouble in nearby countries. as we've seen in Kuwait. "Some [countries] are trying essentially to bribe their citizens. fight against terrorism. any instability could fan the flames of civil war in a country that has been a pivotal test-run for democracy in the region since September 11. once again. any conflict will spillover The Age 9/24/2007 “Tempers must remain cool as the Middle East heats up”. “Egyptian Crisis Biggest Foreign Test Yet for Obama Administration”. "Yemen could be next.
Talk of war further intensified after the deputy commander of Iran's air force. Look at what excessive rates of migration. This pointed admonition coincides with a string of reports emanating from Washington that the Bush Administration is running out of patience with diplomacy and is intensifying its plans for air strikes against Iran. with its arson murders by extremists. The events in Lebanon and the debate over Iran run parallel with Israel's declaration of the Gaza Strip as "hostile territory" and Israeli opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu's confirmation that two weeks ago Israel carried out an air attack deep inside Syria. The French also added fuel to the fire when Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner warned the world to "prepare for the worst and the worst is war". including hundreds of thousands of refugees from the Balkans. We cannot afford it. . Regional Conflicts Draw in the US and go Nuclear Jonathan Dean (Advisor on International Security Issues) 5/4/95 Union of Concerned Scientists We do not want this kind of world. somewhat ingenuously. the United States and other industrial countries pay for these conflicts by losing their investments and their trade in goods and services. there is more mileage in diplomacy than in any military solution. and this should be carried out with haste. Beyond this. a move UN officials described as an "out of control" drift to war. and they pay in increased domestic frictions for the waves of migrants and refugees loosed by conflict. such as the murder of a Lebanese MP. planned for November.com Thursday File has. Mohamed ElBaradei. on a site that it believed was being equipped for nuclear development by North Korea. unrestrained regional conflicts can become conflicts which can draw in the United States and other major powers. They pay most of the costs for humanitarian relief and rehabilitation. Another suggestion is that the target was Iranian weapons destined for Lebanon's Hezbollah. is connected to another. US efforts to ensure the success of a Middle East peace conference. C. as its clandestine nuclear arms program. In the Middle East. In the long run. The Middle East is now overheated and potentially explosive. as it has with the other high-profile assassinations of anti-Syrian leaders in Lebanon. The head of the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency. protracted regional violence creates conditions and motivation for developing nuclear weapons which can directly threaten our security. more so since the Iraq war. Meanwhile. These threats coincide with growing international pressure on Iran to abandon what is regarded by the West. every tension. quickly entered the fray and warned against the use of force against Iran. remain mired in political haggling over what is to be brought to the negotiating table. Beyond the loss of life and productive capability in armed conflict. have dangerous consequences for the region as a whole. Their expansion is the best general guarantee for peace. General Mohammad Alavi. Democracies and free markets are spreading. But democracies and free markets cannot flourish in an increasingly interknit world unless there is some modicum of order. in a part of the world where every action can easily be met with a disproportionate reaction. announced that Iran had already prepared a plan to attack Israel if it bombed his country. Calls have been made for UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to launch an international probe into the bombing. denied any involvement. every event. Iran's only Arab ally. which he threatened to use on American targets in the Middle East. and particularly by the US. and Australia must impress upon its allies that. and it is this very mutuality that can make one act. have done in Germany.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 80/148 Cross-X. This war of words was further escalated when a senior commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard chose to outline the capability of his country's ballistic missiles. There has also been speculation that the raid served as a "dry run" for a possible Israeli or US attack on Iran.
it remains far from certain whether either Hosni Mubarak or Barack Obama will be able to deliver a sustainable outcome.com Thursday File Ext – Instability Egypt instability threatens Middle East instability.au/news/opinion/high-stakes-in-the-square/story-e6frg71x1225999765488) CJC EGYPT'S transition will determine stability in the region. The Australian – 2/4 (“High stakes in the square”. A combination of economic woes and mass unemployment. and however weak the civil society. against the odds and despite the violence. That need for stability has driven the West's approach to Mr Mubarak's 30 years in power. He has been the strongman of the Middle East. 2011. The lack of an organised political opposition in Egypt has become apparent in recent days. . yet a week after the uprising began. Nobel Peace Prize winner Mohamed ElBaradei. the US President is signalling he must leave before that. The Egyptian President is insisting that while he will step down in September. The stability of the 80-million-strong nation and of the region is in play as protesters clash with progovernment supporters in Tahrir Square. with a caretaker government working towards change.theaustralian. are refusing to leave until Mr Mubarak surrenders office. but however ad hoc these protests. But the past few days have shown that acceptance by Egyptians of the trade-off between rights and stability can no longer be assumed. the mood for change cannot be ignored. http://www.com. and meanwhile he intends to oversee the transition to a new leader. but of the Middle East.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 81/148 Cross-X. In the middle are the protesters in the square who. It is an uprising that appears to have taken by surprise everyone from the White House to the man being touted as the most likely transitional leader. The extraordinary battle being played out in the centre of Cairo will decide the future not just of Egypt. along with dissatisfaction with a long-term autocratic leader. The stakes are high. whose ability to balance domestic demands and regional imperatives has made his nation a secular bulwark against fundamentalist Islam and the West's strongest Arab ally. have spilled into the street. The cry is for democracy: the risk is to the stability that has defined Egypt for decades. February 04.
Neither leader spoke Tuesday about the movements in Bahrain and Yemen. The funeral of a demonstrator here Tuesday swelled into growing clashes with security forces amid the gleaming new skyscrapers of this financial capital. Navy's Fifth Fleet patrolling the Gulf. Adam Entous. Jordan and elsewhere.S..com Thursday File ME Diplomacy – Bahrain & Yemen Uprisings in Bahrain and Yemen have US diplomats on their toes to balance strategic interests. “Wave of Unrest Rolls Into Gulf”. strategic interests.S. . The White House is trying to balance its desire to encourage what President Barack Obama called Tuesday "certain universal values" with U." he added. which hosts the headquarters for the U. The president and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton both offered encouragement to MANAMA. though the president was questioned about both during a news conference. is "very concerned" about the violence and is urging the regime to investigate protester deaths as quickly as possible. Reporters for the Wall Street Journal. as fast-moving uprisings have unseated regimes in Tunisia and Egypt and triggered opposition rallies in Algeria. FEBRUARY 16. antiterrorism efforts. The developments came as security forces in Yemen. fought back protesters for a fifth day. an important ally in U. Wall Street Journal – 2/16 (Joe Parkinson.wsj. sharpened the difficulty for the Obama administration.S. in marked contrast to their relative silence on Iran during the last wave of protests in Iran in 2009. http://online.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 82/148 Cross-X.S. and the first to pit a Shiite Muslim majority against Sunni rulers—heightening the dilemma for the U. 2011. Later. Obama praised the courage of protesters and said the Iranian regime was "pretending" to celebrate Egypt's revolt while "gunning down and beating people who were trying to express themselves peacefully" at home.S. and Julian Barnes..com/article/SB10001424052748704409004576145711833269124.S. In Iran. The parallel protests against key allies and enemies of the U. State Department spokesman Philip Crowley put out a statement saying the U.refrain from violence. "We also call on all parties to. the government threatened leaders of Monday's protests there with execution and made a fresh wave of arrests. Iranian protesters and aimed tough words at Tehran on Tuesday. as it struggles to pursue its interests in the region.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0#) CJC Bahrain—The Middle East's wave of popular revolts helped spur the largest street rebellion in years in a Persian Gulf monarchy. Mr.
2011. “Wave of Unrest Rolls Into Gulf”.S.S.com Thursday File Yemen Counter Terrorism Obama is pushing to double support for counter-terrorism efforts in Yemen to fight al Qaeda. The money would assist counter-terrorism efforts against AQAP which is the biggest threat of terrorist attacks. Adam Entous. A. the official told Reuters.S. Reporters for the Wall Street Journal. speaking on condition of anonymity. Reporters for the Wall Street Journal.S. is part of a broader effort to increase pressure on al Qaeda's Yemen-based affiliate. or AQAP. Wall Street Journal – 2/16 (Joe Parkinson. official said the funds would be invested in a special Yemeni counter- terrorism unit that is operated under Yemen's interior ministry and now totals around 300 people. in power for 30 years. ***Bahrain Shell*** .Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 83/148 Cross-X. operations in the country could be hamstrung. The funds are unrelated to another $120 million earmarked for Yemen in President Barack Obama's 2012 budget request unveiled on Monday. The U. Staff Reporter. 2011.reuters.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0#) CJC Some U. Michael Leiter. Reuters – 2/14 (Phil Stewart. Adam Entous.com/article/2011/02/14/us-usa-yemenidUSTRE71D7AQ20110214? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC The United States aims to spend $75 million to double the size of a special Yemeni counterterrorism unit. Yemen is the home to al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. inspired by uprisings that toppled Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak and Tunisia's President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali. Wall Street Journal – 2/16 (Joe Parkinson. Yemen is under threat of collapsing.com/article/SB10001424052748704409004576145711833269124. U. Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh. http://www. and critical economic assistance to stabilize the country. He is also under pressure to quash the resurgent al Qaeda wing in the impoverished Arabian Peninsula state. and Julian Barnes. at the same time as he struggles to control southern secessionists and to cement a fragile truce with rebels in the north.S. al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. homeland. The request includes $35 million in additional military assistance for Yemen and $69 million in economic assistance. Feb 14. official said on Monday. to spend $75 million on new Yemen military training”. FEBRUARY 16. and development challenges" pose the greatest threat to that poor Arab nation since its 1994 civil war. The funding. http://online. U. security. The group has claimed responsibility for a failed Christmas Day attack in 2009 aboard a U. head of the National Counterterrorism Center. FEBRUARY 16. officials believe if the current government fell in Yemen. has faced growing protests in recent weeks from thousands of Yemenis.wsj. Stable Yemen government. would gut US counter-terrorism efforts globally and allow the fast spread of al Qaeda. “U. airliner and a more recent attempt last year to blow up two U. “Wave of Unrest Rolls Into Gulf”. Those operations include training commandos and conducting counter-terrorism strikes. which has yet to be approved by Congress. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper told Congress last week that Yemen's "myriad political.-bound cargo planes with toner cartridges packed with explosives.S.S. a U. 2011.S. told Congress last week he saw AQAP as the biggest current threat to the U. This is separate from his budget. and officials say a collapse of the weak government could give the group free rein. Diplomats are working for a solution to ensure that Bahrain allows political reforms and to quell the uprising.S. and Julian Barnes.
com 84/148 Thursday File http://online. sometimes violently.com/article/SB10001424052748704409004576145711833269124. joint operations.S. with 18 of 40 seats. Iran’s efforts to develop asymmetric capabilities designed to hold U. though they have stopped short of trying to remove the ruling family from power. where even minor unrest might roil world-wide oil markets. not remove them. 2011. Dr. Navy to relocate . C. interests in a region where a significant chunk of the world's oil is produced and transported each day. called Al-Wafaq. naval forces in the Gulf.com/article/SB10001424052748704409004576145711833269124. and efforts to undermine U. American planners must consider the possibility that Iran may threaten to resort to military force should the pressures on Tehran to change its behaviors become intolerable. “Wave of Unrest Rolls Into Gulf”.military deployments in the Persian Gulf is to deter Iran from taking actions deemed inimical to American interests. and since 1991 in Kuwait. on Tuesday suspended their participation in the body. assistance to anti-U.S. FEBRUARY 16. Bahrain collapse would result in US losing basing for the Navy’s 5th Fleet. B. Virginia. allies. Iran’s actions of principal concern to the United States include its nuclear program. Naval War College Review. The move robs Bahrain's government of a legitimate political party with which to negotiate a settlement. Navy's Fifth Fleet make it a critical port for the Navy vessels deployed to counter Iran and protect the Persian Gulf." Christopher Boucek. Likewise. when the administration initially tried to encourage peaceful protests while urging the government of Hosni Mubarak—a longstanding U. He is involved in a wide range of issues as part of the institute’s national security program.S. forces in Iraq.navy.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0#) CJC the Obama administration fears unrest in Bahrain could undercut U.mil/getattachment/c866a012-4a28-4627-86f8-38d0b627e710/U-S--NavalOptions-for-Influencing-Iran---Daniel-G) CJC A central focus of U. Gouré and Grant – 9 (Dr. forces and allies in the region at risk or to contest movement in the Gulf must also be considered as potentially destabilizing.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0#) CJC "The goal is to press to reform these governments. Bahrain's housing of the U. Another concern is that an uprising in Bahrain could spill into next-door Saudi Arabia or Kuwait. Shiite leaders have pushed. imperatives also were on display in the Egyptian revolt. cyberspace. 5th Fleet is critical to deterring Iranian aggression in the Middle East. support for extremist groups in the region. No. 4. But parliamentarians from the Shiite bloc.S. is a visible demonstration of the interest of the United States in the region and of commitment to secure its national interests and defend allies. Her research focuses on airpower. and Julian Barnes. Gouré is a vice president with the Lexington Institute. where our national security is at stake. Wall Street Journal – 2/16 (Joe Parkinson. http://online.S. In addition. Deterrence must include a clear message to Iran that it cannot alter the strategic situation in the region .S. 62. a viable Shiite opposition has gained a growing voice in the country's parliament. The spillover to Gulf States would result in massive oil price spikes.wsj. Rebecca Grant is a senior fellow of the Lexington Institute. Autumn 2009. a nonprofit public-policy research organization headquartered in Arlington. for more political rights over the years.S.S. ally—to survive by meeting some demands. In response. Bahrain's Sunni Muslim rulers have long faced a restive Shiite population that alleges economic and political discrimination. “U.S.S. NAVAL OPTIONS FOR INFLUENCING IRAN”. in solidarity with the protesters. and other issues within the institute’s national security program. http://www. While the ruling family still holds nearabsolute power. a Middle East analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. the kingdom has liberalized more than most of its Gulf neighbors. Adam Entous. Although it lacks oil. The split U.wsj. Vol. critical to countering Iran and protect the Persian Gulf.nwc. If Bahrain's Sunni-led government were to be forced from power—something protesters haven't yet made a focus of their demands— some fear a new government might seek closer ties to Iran and force the U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. The presence of U. Reporters for the Wall Street Journal.S.
glo. Senior Editor at Foreign Policy Magazine. The Israeli government decides to strike the convoy and Iranian nuclear facilities simultaneously. although the persuasiveness of a nonnuclear response to a nuclear threat is uncertain. Iranian sources claim that the Islamic Republic’s navy can close the Gulf. and defenses. either alone or in combination. Certain religious websites are abuzz with talk of Armageddon."(35) General Amnon Shahak-Lipkin. David Bosco is a senior editor at Foreign Policy magazine. The world is awash in weapons. Egypt and Saudi Arabia face violent street protests demanding retribution against Israel — and they eventually yield. however much it may try. and cooperative activities with allies—that the United States can rapidly defeat Iran’s asymmetric warfare strategy. But the events he set in motion could not be so easily restrained. retaliation. In other words.S. shattered four empires and dragged more than two dozen countries into war. triggering a major regional war. Iranian aggression causes World War 3.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. March 3." former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said last week. former Israeli Chief of Staff is quoted "It is never possible to talk to Iraq about no matter what. The bloodshed in Lebanon appears to be part of a broader upsurge in unrest. There may be as much hyperbole as prophecy in the forecasts for world war. Jordan. The heart of deterrence and dissuasion is the promise of unacceptable consequences. By David Bosco. North Korea and Iran are developing nuclear capabilities. Revolutionary Guards surging across the border into Iraq.org/forums/0016/viewtopic. the awareness of peace's fragility is particularly acute. The understanding that small but violent acts can spark global conflagration is etched into the world's consciousness."(34) According to Seymour Hersh. This campaign should be accompanied by clear demonstrations— through exercises. Steinback.. The recipient of the deterrent/dissuasion message must consider either his fate too painful or his gain too small to justify his current behavior. Governments in Syria. In recent years. Deterrence theory suggests a number of potential options: preemption/first strike. Iran is relying on a strategy of asymmetric warfare —in essence."Israel's insistence on the independent use of its nuclear weapons can be seen as the foundation on which Israeli grand strategy rests. “Could This Be the Start of World War III?” http://usc. Certainly about writing in Haaretz said. Nuclear-armed India is still cleaning up the wreckage from a large terrorist attack in which it suspects militants from rival Pakistan. 7/23/2006. 2006 [David.25 The United States. It is clear from Israel Shahak that Israel has no interest in peace except that which is dictated on its own terms. Iraq is suffering through one of its bloodiest months since the U. fleet deployments. D. Some see the start of a global conflict. Iran has engaged in a series of information operations intended to create the impression that it is capable of exerting its military power in the Persian Gulf. together with its allies. for the entire planet. The reverberations from Princip's shots in the summer of 1914 ultimately took the lives of more than 10 million people. Taliban militants are burning schools and attacking villages in southern Afghanistan as the United States and NATO struggle to defend that country's fragile government. 2002 [John Steinbach. 2006 IT WAS LATE JUNE in Sarajevo when Gavrilo Princip shot Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife. "the size and sophistication of Israel's nuclear arsenal allows men such as Ariel Sharon to dream of redrawing the map of the Middle East aided by the implicit threat of nuclear force.html)] The Israeli nuclear arsenal has profound implications for the future of peace in the Middle East. But it's not hard to conjure ways that today's hot spots could ignite.php? p=403&sid=95896c43b66ffa28f9932774a408bb4b] ARMAGEDDON Could This Be the Start of World War III? As the Middle East erupts. "We're in the early stages of what I would describe as the Third World War. is day dreaming. Center for Research on Globalization.ca/articles/STE203A. and indeed. 2002 (http://www.-led invasion in 2003. bent on striking Israel's American allies. It may be possible to threaten preemption or retaliation with conventional forces even against a nuclear-armed adversary.globalresearch. This hot summer. there are plenty of scenarios for global conflagration. After emptying his revolver. July 23. Director of the . "Whoever believes that Israel will ever sign the UN Convention prohibiting the proliferation of nuclear weapons. E. Europe was at war. Two months later."(37) and Munya Mardoch. intelligence officials spot a shipment of longer-range Iranian missiles heading for Lebanon. and has absolutely no intention of negotiating in good faith to curtail its nuclear program or discuss seriously a nuclear-free MiddleEast. he must be confronted by the likelihood that the opponent will impose unacceptable costs or negate the effects of his actions. Global nuclear war. To accomplish this. the young Serb nationalist jumped into the shallow river that runs through the city and was quickly seized.com 85/148 Thursday File through the use of force.. Bosco. Consider the following scenarios: • Targeting Iran: As Israeli troops seek out and destroy Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon. It is never possible to talk to Iran about no matter what. and long-range missile technology is spreading like a virus. After Iran has recovered from the shock. needs to conduct its own information campaign. as the world watches the violence in the Middle East. guerrilla warfare at sea.
the unilateral possession of nuclear weapons by Israel is enormously destabilizing. "In Israeli terminology..for whatever reason. nuclear targeting strategy. or some some of the delerious Israeli Army generals. at the very least.. "The moral and political meaning of nuclear weapons is that states which renounce their use are acquiescing to the status of Vassal states. an unindicted war criminal with a bloody record stretching from the massacre of Palestinian civilians at Quibya in 1953."(40) (Which requires a "nonconventional" response. requiring their own weapons of mass destruction..the deepening Middle East conflict could trigger a world conflagration. long aware of Israel's nuclear program."(39) The Arab states. a perhaps unique exception being the Iraqi SCUD attacks during the Gulf War. as the Iraqis did. ". the existence of an arsenal of mass destruction in such an unstable region in turn has serious implications for future arms control and disarmament negotiations. once unthinkable except as a last resort. spy secrets. According to Shahak. All those states which feel satisfied with possessing conventional weapons alone are fated to become vassal states.com Thursday File Israeli Institute for the Development of Weaponry. if the familar pattern(Israel refining its weapons of mass destruction with U. said in 1994."(42) Russia and before it the Soviet Union has long been a major(if not the major) target of Israeli nukes."41) and Ezar Weissman.. a nuclear escalation. It is widely reported that the principal purpose of Jonathan Pollard's spying for Israel was to furnish satellite images of Soviet targets and other super sensitive data relating to U. During a future Middle Eastern war (a distinct possibility given the ascension of Ariel Sharon..) Israeli nukes aimed at the Russian heartland seriously complicate disarmament and arms control negotiations and. Israel no longer needs U.. Seymour Hersh warns. . seizing control of Israeli nuclear weapons. bitterly resent its coercive intent.or should any Arab nation fire missiles against Israel. and dramatically lowers the threshold for their actual use.cannot be precluded.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 86/148 Cross-X..while israeli jewish society undergoes a steady polarization. and perceive its existence as the paramount threat to peace in the region. the influence of the radical right becomes stronger.) Meanwhile." . if not for all out nuclear war.S."(38) As Israeli society becomes more and more polarized. the launching of missiles on to Israeli territory is regarded as 'nonconventional' regardless of whether they are equipped with explosives or poison gas. would now be a strong probability. In the words of Mark Gaffney. or some secular right-wing Israeli fanatics.S. According to Shahak. complicity) is not reversed soon. Israel's current President said "The nuclear issue is gaining momentum(and the) next war will not be conventional.. and even the threat of nuclear war. "Should war break out in the Middle East again. to the massacre of Palestinian civilians at Sabra and Shatila in 1982 and beyond) the possible Israeli use of nuclear weapons should not be discounted. (43) (Since launching its own satellite in 1988. "The prospect of Gush Emunim.. the Israeli security system increasingly relies on the recruitment of cohorts from the ranks of the extreme right.S.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 87/148
Bahrain is critical to US defense strategy in the Middle East. The 5th Fleet ensure oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, and deters Iran. CBS News – 2/16 (Staff; “Navy's 5th Fleet in Bahrain Eyes Unrest Warily”; February 16, 2011; http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/02/16/501364/main20032183.shtml) CJC Unrest surging through the Arab world has so far taken no toll on the American military. But that could change if revolt washes over the tiny Persian Gulf kingdom of Bahrain longtime home to the U.S. Navy's mighty 5th Fleet and arguably the Middle East anchor of U.S. defense strategy. The discontent that has spilled into the streets of Bahrain's capital, Manama, this week features no anti-American sentiment, but the U.S. has a lot at stake in preserving its dominant naval presence in the Gulf. In announcing that it is "very concerned" about violence linked to the
WASHINGTON protests, the State Department on Tuesday underscored Bahrain's strategic importance as a U.S. partner. "The United States welcomes the government of Bahrain's statements that it will investigate these deaths, and that it will take legal action against any unjustified use of force by Bahraini security forces," said department spokesman P.J. Crowley. "We urge that it follow through on these statements as quickly as possible." The 5th Fleet operates at least one aircraft carrier in the Gulf
Bahrain – 5th Fleet
Cross-X.com Thursday File
at all times, along with an "amphibious ready group" of ships with Marines aboard. Their presence is central to a longstanding U.S. commitment to ensuring the free flow of oil through the Gulf, while keeping an eye on a hostile Iran and seeking to deter piracy in the region. Anthony Cordesman, a Mideast defense specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Bahrain has security services capable of handling protesters and potentially backed by neighboring Saudi Arabia. Thousands of banner-waving protesters took over a main square in Manama
Tuesday in a bold attempt to copy Egypt's uprising. The demonstrations capped two days of clashes that left at least two people dead, and the king made a rare address on national television to offer condolences for the bloodshed. "It is a serious problem, but whether it's going to flare up any more seriously this time than all the other times is hard to say," Cordesman said. "The question is whether they can shake the security structure of the state." The implications for U.S. foreign policy and national security from the pro-democracy movements that have arisen in the Arab world - highlighted by Egypt's stunning revolution - is likely to be a topic Wednesday when Defense Secretary Robert Gates testifies before the House Armed Services Committee. Bahrain became a more prominent partner for the Pentagon after the 1991 Gulf War with Iraq; since then
it has granted U.S. forces increased access, plus permission to store wartime supplies for future crises.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 88/148
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Bahrain Spillover -> Gulf Oil States
Bahrain uprising spillover would be sectarian spilling over into critical Gulf Oil states. Wall Street Journal – 2/16 (Joe Parkinson, Adam Entous, and Julian Barnes, Reporters for the Wall Street Journal; “Wave of Unrest Rolls Into Gulf”; FEBRUARY 16, 2011; http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704409004576145711833269124.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0#) CJC Bahrain is a tiny, island kingdom in the oil-rich Gulf best known for its banking prowess, along with bars that cater to
nationals from alcohol-free Saudi Arabia next door. It pumps little crude itself, but the protests here have brought home to neighboring oil-rich capitals—Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha and Riyadh—a taste of the turmoil that had largely been limited to much poorer corners of the Arab world. It's also the first country experiencing the recent unrest in which the
often-explosive sectarian divide between Sunni and Shiite Muslims has emerged in a meaningful way. Shiites make up small minorities in other recent hot spots, including Egypt, Jordan and Yemen, but religious tensions haven't been a driving factor in unrest in those places. A sustained Shiite uprising in Bahrain would alarm Sunni rulers in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, all Gulf countries with sizable Shiite minorities. They worry about the unrest spilling across their borders, and the possibility Iran would have more opportunities to meddle in the region. Gulf rulers are often quick to blame Iran for instigating trouble among Shiite populations, though real Iranian influence in those communities has been limited.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 89/148
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Egypt -> Bahrain
Egypt has spilled over into Bahrain, threatening to out the Navy’s 5th Fleet and spillover throughout the Gulf region. NYT – 2/16 (Nicholas D. Kristof, Columnist; “Tunisia. Egypt. Bahrain?”; February 16, 2011; http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/17/opinion/17kristof.html) CJC
The gleaming banking center of Bahrain, one of those family-run autocratic Arab states that count as American allies, has become the latest reminder that authoritarian regimes are slow learners. Bahrain
is another Middle East domino wobbled by an angry youth — and it has struck back with volleys of tear gas, rubber bullets and even buckshot at completely peaceful protesters. In the early-morning hours on Thursday here in the Bahrain capital, it used deadly force to clear the throngs of pro-democracy protesters who had turned Pearl Square in the
center of the city into a local version of Tahrir Square in Cairo. This was the last spasm of brutality from a regime that has handled protests with an exceptionally heavy hand — and like the previous crackdowns,
this will further undermine the legitimacy of the government. “Egypt has infected Bahrain,” a young businessman, Husain, explained
to me as he trudged with a protest march snaking through Manama. Husain (I’m omitting some last names to protect those involved) said that Tunisia and Egypt awakened a sense of possibility inside him — and that his resolve only grew when Bahrain’s riot police first attacked completely peaceful protesters. When protesters held a funeral march for the first man killed by police, the authorities here then opened fire on the mourners, killing another person. “I was scared to participate,” Husain admitted. But he was so enraged that he decided that he couldn’t stay home any longer. So he became one of the countless thousands of prodemocracy protesters demanding far-reaching change. At first the protesters just wanted the release of political prisoners, an end to torture and less concentration of power in the al-Khalifa family that controls the country. But, now,
after the violence against peaceful protesters, the crowds increasingly are calling for the overthrow of the Khalifa family. Many would accept a British-style constitutional monarchy in which King Hamad, one of the Khalifas,
would reign without power. But an increasing number are calling for the ouster of the king himself. King Hamad gave a speech regretting the deaths of demonstrators, and he temporarily called off the police. By dispatching the riot police early Thursday morning, King Hamad underscored his vulnerability and his moral bankruptcy.
All of this puts the United States in a bind. Bahrain is a critical United States ally because it is home to the American Navy’s Fifth Fleet, and Washington has close relations with the Khalifa family. What’s more, in some ways Bahrain was a model for the
region. It gives women and minorities a far greater role than Saudi Arabia next door, it has achieved near universal literacy for women as well as men, and it has introduced some genuine democratic reforms. Of the 40 members of the (not powerful) Lower House of Parliament, 18 belong to an opposition party. Somewhat cruelly, on Wednesday I asked the foreign minister, Sheik Khalid Ahmed al-Khalifa, if he doesn’t owe his position to his family. He acknowledged the point but noted that Bahrain is changing and added that some day the country will have a foreign minister who is not a Khalifa. “It’s an evolving process,” he insisted, and he emphasized that Bahrain should be seen through the prism of its regional peer group. “Bahrain is in the Arabian gulf,” he noted. “It’s not in Lake Erie.” The problem is that Bahrain has educated its people and created a middle class that isn’t content to settle for crumbs beneath a paternalistic Arab potentate — and this
country is inherently unstable as a predominately Shiite country ruled by a Sunni royal family. That’s one reason Bahrain’s upheavals are sending a tremor through other gulf autocracies that oppress Shiites, not least Saudi Arabia. A. US-Israel relations are on the brink of collapsing. Failure by the US to appear engaged on the Egyptian crisis to prevent a takeover of the government by radicals, would be perceived by Israel as US abandonment. US must ensure continued diplomacy on the crisis to assure Israel and prevent an extremist takeover. Fabian – 2/15 (Jordan Fabian, Staff Writer at The Hill; “Israelis fretting over U.S. policy”; 02/15/11; http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/144065-israelis-fret-over-us-policy-afterprotests) CJC Israelis are worried about two more years of President Obama, and the crisis in Egypt is adding to their concerns. Israelis already have a cool relationship with Obama, who in
TEL AVIV, Israel — his first year as president called for an Israeli settlement freeze as a precondition to peace talks with the Palestinians. Obama’s 2009 speech in Cairo, which called for a “new beginning” between the West and the Muslim world, was also viewed with skepticism in Israel.
Now there are questions surrounding the leadership of Egypt, Israel’s traditional ally in the Arab world, as well as U.S. policy toward the Middle East. While Israelis uniformly recognize that the U.S.-Israel relationship is strong on the whole, many believe that the unrest in the Arab world could lead Obama to revert to familiar themes they view as hostile to their country’s interests. Former Israeli ambassador to the United States Zalman ***Israel Relations Shell***
org/templateC06. (See “Israeli Nuclear Threats and Blackmail ” . Given suspected U. nor is it produced by the machinations of the “Israel Lobby. Some believe these campaign arguments could eventually become policy differences that would be detrimental to Israel. when Israel makes such concessions. While Obama called for a “credible transition to democracy” in Egypt after President Hosni Mubarak formally stepped down on Friday. C. but it has voiced severe worry about the possibility of the country slipping into the hands of Islamic extremists who could undo its 1979 peace treaty with Israel.http://pakalert.” Fall 2006. constructively and in the spirit of unity that has defined these last few weeks. Martin. Russia could feel compelled to attack the United States for acts like a U. The unrest in Egypt has prompted divergent responses from President Obama and the Israeli government. The pressures of the campaign trail. the ideal realist alliance. Israel has expressed support for Egyptian democracy. but their comments offered a preview of the coming GOP attacks. the Gulf keeps producing defiers of America. The fact that there has not been a general Arab-Israeli war since 1973 is proof that this pax Americana. and do so peacefully. In contrast. nuclear primacy plans. and so it must massively deploy its own force at tremendous cost. [beginning with] his Cairo speech. Extinction Moore 9—BA in pol sci from Wayne State (Carol. the illusion of its unconditionality – underpins the pax Americana in the eastern Mediterranean. for example. have already begun to reopen a split between Obama and his potential Republican rivals on the Middle East. It is. even though they should have learned by now.com/2009/02/16/six-escalation-scenarios-to-nuclearworld-war-iii/) Israel is especially dangerous because its leaders and supporters have made clear for years that if Israel was ever devastated by any kind of war or attack it would retaliate in indiscriminate “Samson Option” attacks against not just on Muslim cities.” could be viewed as even more harmful to Israel.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. Harvard (Dr.” Barbour said in an address to the Herzliya Conference. based on the United States-Israel alliance.wordpress. in return it is rewarded with nothing but more rocket attacks.) Russia. . The United States has to counter them.” he said. B.com 90/148 Thursday File Shoval said in an interview that a continued Obama effort to reach out to the Muslim world will be read in Israel as an effort to push Israeli interests to the side. Haley Barbour. argued that a “point of view” has emerged in Washington that “Israel is a problem. It has compelled Israel’s key Arab neighbors to reach peace with Israel and to enter the American orbit. from Khomeini to Saddam to Bin Laden to Ahmadinejad. is this: United States support for Israel is not primarily the result of Holocaust guilt or shared democratic values. Shoval said. “Obama’s approach to the Middle East. of course.S. but against European and even Russian targets. US-Israel relations key to Middle East stability Kramer 06 – fellow at The Washington Institute and senior fellow at the Olin Institute. Three potential 2012 GOP candidates visited the Jewish state during the first five weeks of 2011. Since no one in the Gulf is sure that the United States has the staying power to maintain such a presence over time.” “People who hold this view feel themselves correct to demand from Israel an endless series of dangerous strategic concessions. the problems the United States faces in the Persian Gulf stem from the fact that it does not have an Israel equivalent there. would retaliate with thousands of nuclear bombs against the United States.php?CID=980) My answer.S. http://www. “The American Interest. Six Escalation Scenarios to Nuclear World War III. simply. but to keep the world’s great reserves of oil out of the grip of the West’s sworn enemies. when candidates often make pledges or take positions they are later pressured to act upon. and policymakers in both countries have said that the outcome could strain the American-Israeli relationship.washingtoninstitute. Mississippi Gov. “I am confident that the people of Egypt can find the answers. has been a success. not in the interests of Israel. From a realist point of view.” American support for Israel -indeed. 16 February. nuclear attack on Iran. supporting Israel has been a low-cost way of keeping order in part of the Middle East. to anticipate my conclusion. None of the Republicans publicly criticized Obama. managed by the United States from offshore and without the commitment of any force. Several potential Republican presidential candidates have called his response misguided. he placed his public focus on the Egyptian people’s struggle for democracy.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. Only a worldwide disarmament movement can stop it. On January 25. as the 2002 movie “Sum of All Fears” illustrates.S. then President of Russia.com 91/148 Thursday File which is just a few hundred miles from its border. 1995 Boris Yeltsin. Once there is any use of nuclear weapons. everyone else feels free to do so. it will be like giving permission for anyone to use them. imperialism and pre-emptive strikes cannot stop it. (Details ) And U.” The U. but once one does. U.N. Any use of nuclear weapons probably will lead to a rapid escalation.S. “out of control spiral. Compare it to a room full of people embarrassed to cough. came within three minutes of initiating a full nuclear strike on the United States because of one Norwegian scientific rocket Russians could not identify.” to nuclear war among most or all nuclear nations–”world nuclear war. cannot stop it. leaders also could be spooked by a nuclear incident. .
Arab League chief Amr Mussa hailed the Egyptian people and army for their "historic achievement" and called for national consensus. in particular. “AT A GLANCE: Egypt's Mubarak Steps Down." he said. 2011.com/article/BT-CO-20110211-713327. Wall Street Journal – 2/11 (Staff.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 92/148 Cross-X. "Egyptians have made it clear that nothing President Barack Obama said the less than genuine democracy will carry the day.com Thursday File Israel Brink Israel is on edge already. one that he thinks will be difficult but more democratic.wsj. were put on the defensive as events rattled regional allies and foes alike. http://online. FEBRUARY 11. European leaders. . Saudi Arabia and Israel. United Nations chief Ban Ki-moon said the army must allow free and fair elections to get back to civilian rule.html) CJC Mubarak's departure marks the beginning of a new chapter in the Middle Eastern country. threatening a decades long balance of power in the Mideast. too. while acknowledging there will be tough days ahead. Military Takes Over”. were united in calling for a swift transition to democracy.
com/2011/POLITICS/02/16/clapper. 2011. Sen. In a series of questions to Clapper. D-California. said his comment last week was misunderstood and he only meant that the group is trying to work within secular political systems. http://www.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss %2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS%3A+Politics%29) CJC The nation's top intelligence officer sought to clarify Wednesday a comment that was roundly criticized when he said that the Muslim Brotherhood was a "secular" group. ties to Iran and the smuggling of weapons into Gaza. Clapper responded each time it was hard to say or he didn't know -. Diane Feinstein. Feinstein wanted to know the stated positions of the group with regards to the Middle East peace process. CNN Reporter.cnn. added he would assess they are not in favor of a peace treaty.but he weapons into Gaza. February 16. indicating that they are NOT a secular organization.com Thursday File A2: Brotherhood Not A Threat Your evidence is citing Director of National Intelligence Clapper. Clapper said in an opening statement Washington (CNN) -to Congress. “Intel chief says his Muslim Brotherhood remark misunderstood”.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 93/148 Cross-X. speaking to the Senate Intelligence Committee.comment/index. Benson – 2/16 (Pam Benson. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper. intelligence committee knew enough about the Brotherhood's positions. The group itself is not secular. the chair of the committee. expressed concern about whether the U. who has clarified his statements about the Muslim Brotherhood. that it remains to be seen on Iran and he surmised they supported bringing ***Muslim Brotherhood*** .S.
spokesman for the long-banned Muslim Brotherhood. whose forehead bore the calluses of those who prostrate themselves five times a day in prayer. 2/14/2011." Abdel Fattah said." .Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 94/148 Cross-X. the Brotherhood — an Islamist group that has held as many as 20% of the seats in Egypt's parliament in recent years — is vowing to increase its influence on daily life in Egypt.com Thursday File Muslim Brotherhood Pushing For Control Muslim Brotherhood is pushing to take control of the government through elections.usatoday. sat at a laminate table in plans for Egypt under democratic rule. said Abdel Fattah. http://www. requiring Muslim women to cover their heads and shoulders in public and killing Muslims who leave their faith.com/news/world/2011-02-14-1Aegypt14_CV_N. The Brotherhood would seek "the preservation of AIRO — Ali Abdel his office in South Cairo. In the scramble for power among groups of various political identity after last week's ouster of President Hosni Mubarak. chattering in Arabic at aides in dark suits and discussing honor" by stoning adulterers. punishing gays. As he spoke late Saturday.htm) CJC Fattah. Reporter at USA TODAY. “Ideology shadows fight to rule the new Egypt”. A bright puddle of blood ran into the street as the animal was slaughtered for a feast celebrating the Brotherhood's hopes for the future. Dorell – 2/14 (Oren Dorell. arranging the meat on a plastic sheet on the patio floor. "Sharia law does not differ from the demands of the people. A man was hacking up a calf on a wood stump. "We basically want a government that will take on the demands of the people that were clear in the revolution of Tahrir Square. answering phone calls. the "thump thump" of a cleaver could be heard just outside the unadorned office.
He says he memorized the Quran during a 20-year detention under Mubarak's emergency laws. Some conservative Muslims consider themselves more moderate and would not go along with an extremist program. However. http://www. Selling scented oils to men outside a mosque in Giza. a party could do a lot with such a percentage of the parliament's seats. Hezbollah did this despite having just 57 of the 128 seats in Lebanon's parliament. They would get 30% if elections were held now. is a sinful Muslim." he said. considers himself a conservative Muslim.com/news/world/2011-02-14-1Aegypt14_CV_N. Makram-Ebeid estimates the Brotherhood would gain "only" 30% of parliament seats in elections involving 22 opposition parties she counts as vying for power.usatoday. who's an extremist.com Thursday File A2: Muslim Brotherhood Not Win Enough Seats Muslim Brotherhood would not have to win the majority. Dorell – 2/14 (Oren Dorell. under pressure from the Bush administration on human rights issues. a lawyer and human rights worker who deals with members of the Brotherhood. Mohamed Hossam Eldin Abdel Wahid. Hezbollah. says they would get 50%. Mohamed Zarea. a U.-designated terrorist group and enemy of Israel.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 95/148 Cross-X. 56. which would be enough to control the government. “Ideology shadows fight to rule the new Egypt”. . who keeps a large red tinted beard and a floor-length ochre robe. Wael Nawara of Al Ghad says the Brotherhood would gain 15% of the seats in an election today.htm) CJC How strong is the Brotherhood? Estimates vary on the political support the Brotherhood has in Egypt." "A Muslim who does not practice regulations of Islam. he said "attacks based on religion are wrong. The movement gained 20% of seats in the parliament in 2005 when Mubarak.S. Reporter at USA TODAY. 2/14/2011. last month toppled the government of the majority pro-Western parties in Lebanon and installed its own candidate as prime minister. allowed direct elections for the first time.
there was no credible moderate opposition to undergird a generals’ coup. and serve as a distant “regent” until things cooled down. The shah was finished. beginning with Iran—that the Soviets might hijack. What they needed—all seven declared—was unflinching U. Hosni Mubarak and Shah Muhammed Reza Pahlavi. But decades of repression and fake elections had crushed Iran’s secular parties.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-01-31/egyptian-protests-mirror-1979revolution-in-iran/?cid=bs:archive7) CJC So far the Obama administration seems to be getting it right on Egypt. More than just the right words will be needed. The letter was never sent. with big swollen cities like Cairo and Tehran containing both the most and least educated people in the country: a relatively narrow educated elite and a broad mass of slum-dwellers. Jordanian. Geoffrey Wawro is the General Olinto Mark Barsanti Professor of Military History and Director of the Military History Center at the University of North Texas. The generals feared the Islamists. Administration hardliners wanted the shah to “get tough.S. Carter sent General Robert Huyser to speak with the senior Iranian generals and gauge their attitude. “Geopolitics is not a kindergarten class. to restore the shah or an authoritarian regime. and warned Carter that Brzezinski was recommending a course that would end in “1. The president must prop up the shah. U. ambassador in Tehran. purge the fundamentalist opposition. but also moderates. “1/31/2011. ought to do about Iran. with big populations. Obama is speaking bluntly with Mubarak about the need for change. He is the author of Quicksand: America’s Pursuit of Power in the Middle East. the U. turn affairs over to a reliable government. The Obama team should be looking closely at Washington’s awful mismanagement of the Iranian revolution of 1978-79 to make sure they do not repeat the errors of the Carter administration. and Lebanese emergencies.” As Carter reacted to events in Iran. particularly to a man who is cut off from the normal sources. http://www. Frozen by opposing views. No. William Sullivan.” any truly democratic movement would “be in a reactionary obscurantist direction under the clergy. and prevented Washington from acting swiftly and decisively to steer the Iranian revolution in a moderate direction. to reassure allies and deter the Soviets. who they assumed would open corruption investigations that would lead back to the military. “One of the obligations of friendship is to give advice.-supplied militaries. Ball worked hard for two weeks. Only the Shiite clergy—like the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt—remained intact and powerful as a political force.” and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has warned there must not be “a takeover that would lead to oppression.S.S. to shut down the press. Wawro – 1/31 (Dr. Both simmered under the rule of corrupt strongmen who had held power for three decades. Twitter and Facebook in Egypt—and both exploded in major regional states. which held the most promise in late 1978.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 96/148 Cross-X. Fortunately.000 Iranians” if necessary. Since most Iranians were “poorly educated and highly ignorant.000 deaths. Egyptian. Brzezinski (joined by Defense Secretary Harold Brown and Energy Secretary James Schlesinger) thought the shah might relinquish some domestic authority. State thought the shah was doomed and that Washington needed to reach some accommodation with the Khomeini camp.” Carter refused to have that conversation with the shah. President Obama is facing similar hard choices. strong internal security services and powerful. Although Brzezinski and Brown in .com Thursday File Egypt – Influence K2 Avoid Islam Rise American support is critical to ensure a transition that does not give power to the radical Muslim Brotherhood. When the shah left Iran in January 1979 to have his cancer treated. Both had complex societies. when he predicted.S. government confused and demoralized him. “I can’t tell another head of state what to do. Washington did nothing.thedailybeast. Both were triggered by new media—audiocassettes in Iran.S. which was still loyal to the shah.” Ball persisted. pro-Khomeini demonstrations broke out in every Iranian city. Just as we today worry that fundamentalists might hijack the Tunisian.” Carter protested. Noting Carter’s hesitation. Today in Cairo. and to flood the streets with troops and tanks. backing. Carter appointed 68-yearold George Ball to sift through conflicting reports to determine just what the U. “You can tell a friend what you think. Iranian generals met with the U. The error in Tehran in 1979 was one of omission.” The Carter administration was as startled by the revolution in Tehran as Obama was by the wave of revolutions from Tunis to Cairo. What Huyser discovered was interesting.” a clear reference to Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood. with astonishing accuracy. was undone by fights between Cyrus Vance’s State Department and Zbigniew Brzezinski’s National Security Council. ambassador in Tehran in 1970. Both dynasts. would have to vest its hopes in the Iranian military.S. Carter’s CIA had predicted that nothing much would change in Iran through 1985: “Iran is not in a revolutionary or even pre-revolutionary situation. just how Iranian demographics would shape the coming upheaval. Ball’s moderates were used-up hacks who wouldn’t stand a chance against Khomeini’s mobs. Vance was horrified. The seven Iranian generals Huyser met with expressed their readiness to kill “100. The revolutions in Cairo and Tehran have much in common.” others thought tens of thousands. Just before the regime began to totter in 1978. rifts in the U. The president has called for an “orderly transition.S. Such a plan. or even topple the shah.” America’s wisest course now would be to “work out the transfer of power to responsible hands before Khomeini comes back and messes everything up.” to re-arrest political prisoners. and set up a moderate caretaker government. In December 1978. Another wave of riots swept through Tehran in January 1979. read classified and unclassified reports from all sources. Brzezinski drafted a letter for Carter to send to the shah that baldly enjoined him to use force against the demonstrators.” he reminded the president. were regarded in Washington as “family friends. who is surrounded by sycophants. but must hold on to police powers and military and foreign affairs. The strategic threat of that—then and now—was outlined by the U.” to borrow Hillary Clinton’s phrase. Brzezinski reopened his attack.” Ball urged Carter to tell the shah to leave Iran. and then met with Carter to render his verdict. Carter expressed astonishing diffidence. Brzezinski spoke of an “arc of crisis” in the Middle East—a wave of unrest in Islamic countries. vomited out in “a national regurgitation by the Iranian people. and expressed their willingness to launch a coup to keep the shah in power.
Khomeini’s komitehs— Islamic militias and revolutionary courts—were rounding up the shah’s courtiers. Mubarak should turn power over to a respected politician bolstered by Omar Suleiman’s reformed security services. or shot. The Iranian generals threw in the towel. The generals made a last appeal to Ambassador Sullivan for support.com Thursday File Washington and General Alexander Haig at NATO headquarters in Belgium were still for unleashing the Iranian military against the ayatollahs—“give the officers a go-ahead.” an American colonel named Colin Powell observed from the Pentagon. but Carter remained inert. “When the shah fell. and America has only an auxiliary role. the Iranian air force did the same in early February 1979. who will loosen their grip but not permit the Muslim Brotherhood to knock over a “national unity government” as easily as Khomeini crushed Iran’s first. He must move fast and deal bluntly with President Mubarak.” (When the embassy was actually seized eight months later. He and his subordinates recommended the embassy staff be reduced to “six officers and a vicious dog.” Brown urged Brzezinski—Carter refused to roll the dice.) With Washington in retreat. Carter decided that Iran was Khomeini’s. warning that anti-American sentiment was boiling over in the streets and the press. refusing even to dispatch a carrier to the Persian Gulf. The army stood down and let the demonstrations disarm it. . Instead. our Iran policy fell with him. officers. It wasn’t. the generals declared “neutrality”. and helped usher in the Islamic Republic of Iran. and that the U. most were arrested.” President Obama is now holding our Egypt policy in his hands. came to naught. Carter selected a negative program: merely cultivating contacts with moderate Islamic clergy. The imperial military’s hour had seemingly arrived. mixed “provisional revolutionary government. The Egyptian army must be restrained. which has vexed and weakened American policy for more than 30 years. Embassy could no longer be protected.S. rather than in a country. The president still effectively controlled the Iranian generals and might have fashioned a moderate reform coalition under their aegis. all our investment in an individual.” None of this will be easily accomplished. Just as Egyptian fighter jets are orbiting Cairo in a show of strength. exiled. he relayed the request to Washington. and politicians in the vain hope that they would counter Khomeini’s radicalism and step in if the ayatollah’s movement unraveled. “In Iran.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 97/148 Cross-X. But the hand we played in 1979 was self-nullifying. Sullivan cabled Washington on February 27. Carter must have wished he had heeded the warning. credible opposition moderates like Mohamed ElBaradei must be empowered to move the country forward without a breakdown in security or an Islamist coup.
decides to block the canal. http://dyn.politico. “The question is whether that supply gets cut off at some point. Muslim Brotherhood. “Egypt: Worst scenarios for W. driving per-barrel prices to $120 or more and gas prices at the pump well beyond $4 a gallon.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 98/148 Cross-X.” former Obama car czar Steve Rattner. That could have a disastrous impact on an economy that has just begun picking up steam. If a new Egyptian government.”. pinch point of the Mideast oil supply. “Right now. the market doesn’t think it’s all that likely.H. POLITICO – 2/1 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico and Mike Allen is the chief political correspondent for Politico and Laura Rozen is a reporter at POLITICO. .” Oil traders have begun factoring in that risk: Since Friday. especially if any such blockade includes Egypt’s critical Sumed pipeline. 2011. when the first huge demonstrations rocked Cairo. but that’s a risk. prices have soared about 7 percent. up to more than $92 per barrel. February 1.cfm? uuid=DE7516BA-D472-D8ED-D73BCE853D37CED6) CJC Egypt produces no oil and is hardly an economic powerhouse with global reach. tankers would be forced to undertake the six-to-eight-week trek around the Horn of Africa. but it controls the Suez Canal.com/printstory.com Thursday File Brotherhood = Price Spikes Muslim Brotherhood control risks cutting off Oil from the Middle East devastating our econ recover and causing Oil Spikes. perhaps one dominated by the anti-U.S. speaking on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” said Monday. experts say.
it will probably spell bad news for the western companies operating in the country. It has no formal connection with Washington but it does have strong ties to Tehran.com Thursday File Brotherhood = Econ Collapse Muslim Brotherhood coming into power would collapse Western economies. Apache's large investment in Egypt has not gone unnoticed by the markets. and also sell Egypt new weapons. seemed to catch the world. Fortune 500) and Raytheon (RTN. and has several western energy companies working in the country. like the F-4 and F-16 attack fighters.cnn. Such a scenario could occur in Egypt. Fortune 500). making up around 10% of Egypt's total imports. They eventually turned on their former coalition partners and wiped them out. like in Egypt. did not come about overnight. which led to the establishment of an anti-western Islamic Republic. Fortune 500). There are of course very large differences between Arab Egypt today and Persian Iran 32 years ago. corn and soybeans to Egypt averaging around $2 billion a year.com/2011/01/31/news/international/egypt_economic_interests. European oil companies like the UK's BP (BP) and Italy's ENI (E) have had a major presence in the country for decades drilling for oil and gas.ht m) CJC The recent demonstrations in Egypt have rocked world markets and sent investors scrambling for the exits.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 99/148 Cross-X. ADM (ADM. is now leading the opposition groups' newly formed steering committee. Disparate Egyptian opposition groups. especially the United States. a banned Islamic resistance movement that is not on the friendliest of terms with the West. much of which is recycled back to US defense contractors like Boeing (BA. They provide support for older US-made military equipment. bringing about the angst that we see today. 2011. But no company has more exposure to the energy sector in Egypt like Apache Corporation (APA. The United States is a major exporter to the country. It's not yet clear what kind of government would emerge if the current autocratic regime led by President Hosni Mubarak were to fall. It has said it wants to establish Sharia (Islamic) law in the country and ban all women and Christians from government (Christians make up 10% of the population of Egypt). who won a Nobel Peacce Prize for his leadership of the IAEA. The US also delivers $1. Lockheed Martin (LMT. and the US State Department.3 billion in military aid to Egypt. totally off guard. A confluence of economic changes in both countries helped widen the divide between the rich and the poor. but noteworthy energy sector. Western business in an Islamic theocracy But a revolution can quickly turn. Fortune 500). The US supplies wheat. That is equivalent to about 50% of the estimated value of Apache's Egyptian assets. They seemed to have sprung out of nowhere but offered some hope that the dictator ruling the country would fall to a more democratic regime. Mohamed El Baradei. The most powerful group with the largest following usually comes out on top. Egypt also has a small. The scenes from the protests in Egypt look eerily similar to ones that swept Iran 32 years ago. In Iran. General Dynamics (GD. The protests in 1978 and 1979. have banded together to oust Mubarak. January 31. The revolution that swept Iran and seems to be festering in Egypt. from liberals to Islamic fundamentalists. but the economic backdrop is similar. who is critical of President Obama's reluctance to call for Mubarak's resignation. It's not without reason. “Biggest corporate stakes in Egypt's power shift”. It could lead to the expulsion of US and Western companies from Egypt and threaten the stability of more secular Arab states. contributor.fortune/index. CNN Money – 1/31 (Cyrus Sanati. . Northrup Grumman (NOC. That could hurt the sales of companies like ConAgra (CAG. the Islamic fundamentalists had the poor firmly in their grasp and used their mass to overwhelm the other groups. is pushing for a peaceful transition to democracy. The largest and most organized of the opposition groups is the Muslim Brotherhood. Wall Street has wiped $5 billion off Apache's market value since the riots began amid fears that a new government could expropriate their land concessions. Fortune 500). with a total investment of more than $7 billion over the past 17 years. Fortune 500). So if Egypt falls to an Islamic theocracy. Fortune 500). What is clear is that US economic interests in the entire region would be at risk if Egypt falls under the veil of Islamic fundamentalism. which has alleviated some fears on Wall Street and Washington. It is by far the largest US investor in Egypt. ranging from US foes like Syria to staunch US FORTUNE -allies like Jordan and Saudi Arabia. El Baradei. which funds their activities. Egypt now accounts for a quarter of the company's earnings. http://money. Fortune 500) and Cargill. A possible revolution in the most populous and influential nation in the Arab world shouldn't be taken lightly given the possibility of an anti-Western government coming to power in Cairo.
If Egypt and Iran were to work in tandem. It would literally open the door to a theocratic Iranian-style empire stretching from Morocco to Iran. Together. it is a wolf in sheep's clothing. But losing Egypt to the grip of Islamic fundamentalism would be a huge blow to the United States. whose domestic policy initiatives are coming apart at the seams. Obama is committing the same sin that Dwight Eisenhower did in Cuba and Jimmy Carter did in Iran. but none have risen to the level of a cataclysm. Trent Lott (R-Miss. Morris – 2/2 (Dick Morris.com Thursday File Brotherhood = ME Instability Allowing the Muslim Brotherhood in the door would open all of the Middle East to extremism undermining American leadership globally and completely destabilizing the Middle East.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 100/148 Cross-X. To the extent that it masquerades as a peaceful body. he may find himself confronted with a Middle Eastern version of the old domino theory. February 2. But his policy of appeasement toward radical Islam has yet to have any bad consequence. he will pay for it politically in 2012. with each new theocratic conquest destabilizing its neighbor. "Who lost China?" Obama may well have to explain how and why he lost Egypt. Obama will have permanently damaged America's vital interests. Imagine if this president. Remember that Iran has a population of 79 million and Egypt has 75 million. where one nation after another falls to Islamism. We now face the possibility that a radicalized Egypt could be Obama's gift to the globe. they could control the region. to Israel and to the entire Western world. The Muslim Brotherhood is allied closely with Hamas. His re-election hopes may be doomed if Iran takes over. The Muslim Brotherhood will take over if it gets its foot in the door. a former political adviser to Sen. By failing to back Mubarak. loses office over a foreign policy blunder.com/articles/2011/02/02/will_obama_lose_egypt_108751. http://www. . Americans have regarded Obama's flirtation with the Arab street with a mild concern that he may be too naive in his understanding of that part of the world. Inspired by an Islamic takeover in Egypt. If Egypt falls. their 154 million almost equal the combined population of all the other nations in North Africa and the Middle East.html) CJC Obama better hope that the crowds clamoring for an overthrow of the Hosni Mubarak regime really do achieve a functioning liberal democracy rather than an Iranian-style theocracy. If he permits Egypt to slip through our fingers and go over to the Iranian sphere of influence.) and President Bill Clinton. Just as Richard Nixon helped to discredit Harry Truman President and defeat Democratic presidential nominee Adlai Stevenson in 1952 by trumpeting the question. “ Obama Following a Very Risky Strategy With Egypt”. to be sure.realclearpolitics. He needs to understand that the radical Islamists mean us ill and that any effort to appease them is bound to fail. 2011. Look at what Carter's abandonment of the Shah has cost the world and is likely to cost it in the future. Until now. We have had some terror attacks. Any coalition with the Brotherhood is as likely to remain secular as Adolf Hitler's early coalition with Paul von Hindenburg in Germany was likely to stay non-Nazi.
html) CJC Four days ago I wrote that.com/articles/2011/02/03/face_in_the_crowd_108750.the man who ran interference for the Iranian regime.inspired by the riots in Tunisia to try their luck in Tahrir Square. at Friday prayers. many imams apparently told their flocks to go swell the demonstrators' ranks. February 3. Political Reporter. against Bush. Only now that Mubarak's position is untenable -.because the Egyptian army is distancing itself from him -. The latter have reached for power fairly cleverly.realclearpolitics. and is the Muslim Brotherhood appropriating the revolution. At first they presented themselves as entirely neutral. http://www.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 101/148 Cross-X. Then.com Thursday File Muslim Brother Hood Pushing For Power Muslim Brotherhood is rising to take power. "until fresh factors come into play. 2011. Warren – 2/3 (David Warren. with the support of the Muslim Brotherhood.are the valves fully opening. was chief UN atomic weapons inspector -- . “Face in the Crowd”." Let me update that. when he is now well placed for the succession to Hosni Mubarak. between the Mubarak regime and the "spoilt children of Egypt's middle classes" -. But this support remained cautious. "No one can predict what will come of" the Egyptian demonstrations. Mohamed ElBaradei -.
com Thursday File Brotherhood = No MEPP Radical takeover will undermine Egypt-Israel Peace Accords and gut any possibility of a successful MEPP. POLITICO – 2/1 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico and Mike Allen is the chief political correspondent for Politico and Laura Rozen is a reporter at POLITICO. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been meeting around the clock with advisers.” Munayyer added.”. one of the reasons the Egyptian army remains so popular among its people was its near success against Israel during the bloody Yom Kippur war in 1973. And that could. http://dyn.H. 2011. push Obama — a president who vowed to improve relations with the Arab world — back into a much closer alliance with Israel after two years of tense relations with the traditional U. .com/printstory.cfm?uuid=DE7516BA-D472-D8EDD73BCE853D37CED6) CJC The most obvious danger. Israel. “We’re not talking about another war.S.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 102/148 Cross-X. a more militant Cairo could wipe out whatever remaining hope lingered for an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal. ally in the region. In fact. according to administration officials. is that any new Egyptian regime will almost certainly adopt a more militant stance toward its partner in peace for more than three decades. “Egypt: Worst scenarios for W.politico. perversely. February 1.” Even if Egypt and Israel don’t come to blows. gaming out the various scenarios — ranging from chillier relations to A new Egypt-Israel conflict Nasser-type saber rattling in Cairo. “But the illusion of a real peace with Israel is over.
com. February 04. 2011. In the short term. even when successful. whatever the timing. are unpredictable -. how long before anarchy forces the hand of the military? Some have wanted to present Tahrir Square as the "Berlin Wall" of the Middle East. The Australian – 2/4 (“High stakes in the square”. But with the clashes continuing overnight. it appears likely. if not the protesters -. as commentator Daniel Pipes wrote in this newspaper on Wednesday. Immediate elections would result in a takeover by the Muslim Brotherhood. A post-Mubarak Egypt is inevitable. it is the military -.com Thursday File Transition K2 Check Muslim Brotherhood Timing is everything. The 82-year-old leader is the sticking point. The military will be a critical partner in the transition government and checking back extremist rise. but popular protests do not always bear fruit -.witness the deposition of the shah in 1979 that ushered in the Islamic republic in Iran. The respected Middle East commentator and former US ambassador to Israel. Martin Indyk. The Americans. Those impatient for change should remember that revolutions. The US must ensure that there is a transition government.theaustralian.that will be most crucial in determining what happens next. argued on ABC TV Lateline on Wednesday night that Egyptians will not accept a process overseen by Mr Mubarak because they "simply do not trust him to ensure there will be a free and fair election". appear to be looking for an interim government that would minimise Mr Mubarak's role and give everyone a chance to regroup. The challenge for Egypt's powerbrokers is to increase popular participation in the life of the nation. especially given the divergence of views between Washington and Cairo about the timetable for change and the role that should be played by Mr Mubarak.witness the failures of the 2009 Green Movement in Iran and the Cedar Revolution in Lebanon in 2005. While Egypt is still in flux. anxious that immediate elections would open wide the door to the Muslim Brotherhood (outlawed but experienced in running independent candidates at earlier elections) in the absence of other strong opposition parties. .which continues to position itself on the side of the people. that "the militaries will remain the ultimate powerbrokers" in the Middle East. Time is needed anyway for changes to be made in the constitution to allow for more democracy. http://www. but ensure that in the process extremist Islam does not secure a foothold. The army did not intervene in the chaotic events in Tahrir Square yesterday as pro-Mubarak riders on horses and camels clashed with the anti-government protesters.au/news/opinion/high-stakes-in-the-square/story-e6frg71x1225999765488) CJC The immediate question is how to move forward.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 103/148 Cross-X.
ambassador.which have been dominated by young people who seem genuinely interested in freedom and democracy -. President Jimmy Carter's U. the Director of National Intelligence. “Beware the Muslim Brotherhood”.according to Kuwait's education minister -.realclearpolitics.N.as the Obama administration was. ***Foreign Aid*** ." "This is one of the most reckless and irresponsible statements ever made publicly by an American official at a critical and delicate moment. But they seem to have been as surprised by the protests -.com/articles/2011/02/13/beware_the_muslim_brotherhood_108878.it is the father of all current terror groups in the Middle East. 2011. that it grew to prominence because of its alliance with Adolf Hitler and that -. Andrew Young. was a deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force in the Reagan administration. once described the Ayatollah Khomeini as "some kind of saint. Confusion about the Muslim Brotherhood is not limited to journalists. a former Marine and Green Beret." The Muslim brothers are bad guys. described the brotherhood as "largely secular. February 13.ht ml) CJC When journalists tout the brotherhood's "moderation" because it has publicly eschewed violence. Obama administration cluelessness about the brotherhood is dangerously reminiscent of Carter administration policy toward Iran in 1979." said John Podhoretz of Commentary magazine. James Clapper.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 104/148 Cross-X. they fail to mention that its goals are similar to al-Qaida's. Kelly – 2/13 (Jack Kelly. In testimony to the House Intelligence Committee Thursday. They are based on ignorance of reality. http://www.com Thursday File A2: Muslim Brotherhood Not Threat Claims of Muslim Brotherhood moderation have no warrants.
S.html) CJC Congress could cut back the aid if Egypt moves in a direction contrary to U. who chairs the Senate appropriations subcommittee that approves U. "President Mubarak's decision to stand down from future leadership of the government is welcome. http://www. but his continued role in Egypt's transition is unrealistic.com/article/BT-CO-20110211-713327. 2011. and he renewed a threat to withhold aid from Egypt if it necessary to push for democracy there. policy.reuters. senator who oversees foreign aid said Mubarak had no credibility to oversee Egypt's transition. Feb 13.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 105/148 Cross-X. Wall Street Journal – 2/11 (Staff. Patrick Leahy (D.” said Arizona Senator John McCain.” Congress will cut aid if military fails to ensure transition. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee. 2011. “Public Praise.wsj.com Thursday File Congress Cut Aid Congress would cut aid if it felt Egyptian Military was going the wrong direction. warned annual U. “Obama says change in Egypt "must begin now"”. Reuters – 2/1 (Caren Bohan and Andrew Quinn." Leahy. a Democrat. lawmakers also reacted with skepticism to Mubarak's announcement. The U..S.S. said. withholding aid to the government.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military. Some . Vt. 2011. aid to Egypt could be "at risk" if Cairo's military thwarts a transition to democratic rule. including peace with Israel. Military Takes Over”.S. http://www. “I urge the Egyptian military to faithfully support and secure the coming process of political change in Egypt. foreign aid.S.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-obamaidUSTRE7109F720110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC U. FEBRUARY 11. Later Friday.html) CJC Sen.bloomberg. Failure for Obama to get results means that Congress will take action and cut off aid to Egypt. http://online. “The Egyptian people are demanding a meaningful and irreversible transition to democracy. "We (the United States) should do what we can to support a transition to democracy including. if it becomes necessary. Feb 1." said Senator Patrick Leahy. who heads the committee responsible for yearly spending on diplomacy and international aid. “AT A GLANCE: Egypt's Mubarak Steps Down. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. reporter for Bloomberg News. Staff.).
congressional aides and analysts said on Wednesday. when lawmakers will get an opportunity to make changes.S. Staff. but they are watching to see where unrest there leads. which has been running at $1. lawmakers are unlikely to slash American aid to Egypt quickly.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC U. but if the issue is not resolved they are willing to gut it.S. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”. WASHINGTON (Reuters) - . Feb 2. That could lead to a battle over withholding aid to Egypt later this month.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 106/148 Cross-X. Much depends on events between now and then. For now.5 billion a year. Views of the Egyptian turmoil vary on Capitol Hill. 2011.com Thursday File Aid: Peaceful Transition K2 Prevent Cut US won’t cut aid now. http://www. aid to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's government. the Republican-run House of Representatives seems more cautious than the Democratic-run Senate about cutting U. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell.reuters.
the United States supplies $1. LA Times – 2/3 (Staff. peppering his foreign policy team with questions about the relationship between Egyptian police and the military. siding with the police would be tantamount to abandoning the U. “A White House Policy on Egypt Evolves”. values the relationship with the U. Anti-Americanism has been a minor theme in the protests.S. and for good reason . 2011." Both in public and in every other communications channel. Obama turned his intelligence briefing into a seminar about Egypt. The strong secular undercurrent in most major Egyptian cities kept the Brotherhood in check as much as the heavy-handed security forces did. flows directly to them.nationaljournal. (and the military aid that accompanies it). During his mid-day press briefing Friday. US has the necessary influence to shape the outcome in Egypt because of its Aid package. The military connection is the only way that US-Egypt relations will remain and aid is the lynch-pin. press secretary Robert Gibbs seemed to imply that further U. The army. On Friday morning.S. http://www. a legacy of the SadatBegin peace accord.com/whitehouse/a-white-house-policy-on-egypt-evolves-20110201) CJC The Brotherhood had done a poor job of recruiting young Egyptians.0. for the military.6393912. aid to Egypt would be contingent upon the country’s reactions to the protests. “Egypt after Mubarak”.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 107/148 Cross-X. 2011. February 3.html) CJC The most misguided assertion in Washington holds that the United States lacks the capacity to influence the outcome of the Egyptian crisis.com/wpdyn/content/article/2011/01/31/AR2011013104517.S. 2011. educational and economic ties between the two countries built over many years. and there are strong cultural.S. including well more than $1 billion for the Egyptian military. .com Thursday File Aid K2 Leverage Aid to Egypt gives the US direct influence over the military. which is a much respected and highly influential institution. That is why they did not fight protestors. The White House has rightly hinted that that aid is now at stake. “Misconceptions about the Egyptian crisis”. and on Sunday Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton finally announced U.story) CJC A policy of the Mubarak regime that is likely — but not guaranteed — to survive the transition is Egypt's intimate relationship with the United States. In fact. Ambinder – 2/1 (Marc Ambinder is the White House Correspondent for National Journal Group. Obama’s advisers believed that the informal checks and balances that had kept Egypt firmly in America’s corner would continue with or without Mubarak. February 1. Aid is critical to the US continuing to have relations. http://www. which had reached gale-force size.5 billion in annual aid to Egypt. The military was the key: most of the more then $1 billion in annual aid. January 31.com/news/opinion/editorials/la-ed-egypt-20110203. and it mostly reflected outrage over the slowness of the United States to dissociate itself from Mubarak. support for a "transition" to "real democracy. Washington Post – 1/31 (Editorial Staff.washingtonpost.latimes. Publicly insinuating that future money would be conditioned on how Egyptian leaders handled the protesters demand was less of a direct threat than simply the application of direct leverage: Mubarak would have to tread lightly when ordering his military to backstop his police. both sides in Egypt have been aggressively appealing for support from the Obama administration. the administration should be making explicit the connection between future funding for the Egyptian military and that democratic transition. http://www. its membership ranks were fewer than polls showed.
The unrest in Egypt and other Middle Eastern countries could put the brakes on billions of dollars of arms sales to the entire region. Staff. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”.com Thursday File Aid K2 Arms Sales Cutting aid to Egypt puts the brakes on billions of dollars in regional arms sales.S. Feb 2.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Most U. . Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 108/148 Cross-X. 2011. analysts say. aid to Egypt is military and has gone for things like M1A1 Abrams battle tanks and F-16 fighter aircraft. http://www.reuters.
Feb 2. "There are stipulations in terms of the behavior of recipients of our assistance. and our values." he added. Leahy suggested on Wednesday that Washington should think about economic aid for a new government in Cairo. which he says has "no credibility" to oversee the transition to democracy. Senate is willing to gut aid quickly.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Leahy added the Obama administration could stop spending money already appropriated by Congress for this year." Leahy told Reuters Insider Television. withholding aid to the government. the administration can stop that money at any time. February 2. if aid is used in a way that is contrary to our laws. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”. http://www. if it becomes necessary. Leahy said. “The welcome restraint and professionalism shown by the Egyptian Army so far is a testament to the long relationship between our two countries.” he said. 2011. Feb 2. 2011. Staff. saying he hoped for a transition to a government that would address joblessness and hunger and "the suffering of the people. . Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell. "But it's certainly not going to be spent on a government that must leave and is dragging its feet on leaving.reuters. "There is money in the pipeline." he said. referring to the Mubarak government. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell.com/member/daily/post-mubarak-questions-of-aid-get-complicated-20110201) CJC In his own statement. Staff.nationaljournal. Chris Strohm covers homeland security and intelligence for National Journal Group." he said.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Democratic Senator Patrick Leahy chairs the Senate subcommittee in charge of foreign aid and has taken a harder line on continuing aid to the Mubarak government. Questions of Aid Get Complicated”. http://www. Congress will cut aid to speed up the transition. And obviously. House and Strohm – 2/2 (Billy House is a Congress writer for National Journal. “Post-Mubarak." "Those would be very appropriate areas to spend American aid.J. 2011.com Thursday File Aid Cut Quickly Obama can cut off aid in the pipeline immediately if there is not a peaceful resolution. our policies.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 109/148 Cross-X. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”. State Department spokesman P. http://www. we'll make adjustments as we need to. Crowley said last week the United States would continue to monitor how Egypt's military responds to the crisis -suggesting that a major army intervention to put down protests might trigger a change.reuters.” “But we should do what we can to support a transition to democracy including.
"It is critical that we are deliberate about the actions we take. Representative Kay Granger. http://www. The chambers would then have to work out their differences.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC The House Republican who chairs the committee on foreign aid. I am continuing to monitor the events on the ground very closely.com Thursday File Egypt – A2: No Aid Cut – Budget Aid can be cut in the coming budget. Staff. urged caution this week in deciding what the U. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”. . Feb 2. Egypt has been a moderate influence in the Middle East and has a peace agreement with Israel. Senate will wait to act until after house which means they can reconcile the difference. The Democratic-run Senate will act on the funding bill after the House.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 110/148 Cross-X. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell.S." Granger said. 2011.reuters. response to events in Egypt will be. and might take a different approach.
would be reviewed as events unfold but U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 111/148 Cross-X. “U. ***Iran*** .com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-idUSTRE71175920110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC The White House said last week U. military aid to Egypt." State's Crowley said on Monday.reuters. officials have indicated it would not be quickly cut off. It is based on the work that we've done together.S.S. Reuters – 2/2 (Arshad Mohammed and Andrew Quinn. Feb 2. which runs about $1.3 billion per year. http://www.com Thursday File Egypt – Aid On Table US is putting the question of Aid to Egypt on the table. Our relationship has been a stabilizing one. urges restraint in Egypt. "Our assistance to Egypt is longstanding. struggles for policy”.S. 2011.
The White House and the State Department. coupled with near-complete suppression of the media. which the White House openly admitted came as a surprise. the Iranian regime has learned from last year’s protests and the outcome in Egypt — lessons that could prompt the government to launch a more systematic and unbridled crackdown on dissent. Maloney said.” By contrast. Following the popular uprising in Egypt that toppled the 30-year authoritarian regime of President Hosni Mubarak. US must stay focused on a country by country basis. some of the same activists who led Iran’s failed Green Revolution in 2009 are taking to the streets again — and facing the same. “Let me very clearly and directly support the aspirations of the people who are in the streets in Iran today. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a U.com Thursday File Diplomacy = Iran Transition Continued focus for our diplomacy efforts is critical in the Middle East. “W. the diplomatic scenarios in Iran are dramatically different. unrest in Iran has festered for more than a year — which analysts believe has prepared the Ahmadinejad regime to respond swiftly to threats of opposition. more dangerous. “They’re watching for this. make the situation in Iran more unstable. “Iran has been in a period of turmoil now for a full 18 months.” Administration officials are monitoring events in Iran closely and attempting to gauge whether the latest street demonstrations will gain momentum.com/news/stories/0211/49513. violent repression. “What I think was so powerful. which drew flak for sending mixed messages during the crisis. potentially. which lessens the extent to which the State Department and the White House have to conduct diplomatic back flips in their public statements. But the absence of a diplomatic relationship. “There’s no real way to predict which of the pressures for change [in the Mideast] are going to become serious and reach a crisis point. a national security policy chairman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.” said Anthony Cordesman. “We wish the opposition and the brave people in the streets across cities in Iran the same opportunity that they saw the Egyptians seize. and what set the Egyptian government so off-kilter. Unlike Egypt’s scenario.” said Suzanne Maloney.H. Unlike Mubarak. was simply that this came out of nowhere. unpredictable and.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 112/148 Cross-X. adversary and the subject of United Nations sanctions. 2/15/11. The Obama administration also learned from the Egyptian revolution.html) CJC A second test of President Barack Obama’s Middle East foreign policy is brewing in the streets of Tehran this week. The uprising in Iran can be successful with continued effective US diplomacy. day in and day out. The administration’s response to protests in Tehran on Monday largely mirrored its public statements three weeks ago after demonstrators filled the streets of Cairo.” At the same time. takes Egypt wisdom to Iran”. .politico. has been careful to speak with a unified voice — including efforts to spread democracy to Iran.” Maloney said. near-certain threat of government-backed. It ensures stable transitions between regimes. http://www.” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told reporters Monday.S. “Basic problem that you face here is that you have to deal with this country by country. who served as an Iranian affairs adviser in the Bush-era State Department. Phillip – 2/15 (Abby Phillip is a staff writer.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 113/148 Cross-X.com Thursday File ***** Affirmative Answers***** .
a widely respected former judge and scholar who was once a secular leftist but later became one of the most foremost thinkers of what Egyptians refer to as the "moderate Islamic" political trend and is seen as a bridge between the movements. use of existing research. even after more than 30 years and billions of dollars of U. http://www. The initial changes may not be enough for many in Egypt calling for the current constitution. which met with Defense Minister Hussein Tantawi on Tuesday. not that they’re going to follow you. we recommend that the Secretary of State • develop and widely disseminate throughout the department a strategy that considers the techniques of private sector public relations firms in integrating all of State’s public diplomacy efforts and directing them toward achieving common and measurable objectives. and • program adequate time for public diplomacy training into State’s assignment process.html) CJC The Egyptian military can afford to exercise its independence from foreign interference. Public Diplomacy: State Department Expands Efforts but Faces Significant Challenges: GAO-03-951. 4 September 2003. now suspended by the military.thesunnews. unleashed by the turmoil. also includes a Christian supreme court judge.” The Egyptian military may also have acquired some of its professional standards and . “In the end. because of its relative professionalism and its view of U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 114/148 Cross-X. assistance. GAO-03-951. the fundamentalist group that was the most bitter rival of Mubarak's regime.S.com Thursday File ***2AC F/L*** 1. coordination. lobbyist for Egypt who’s now a scholar for the Middle East Institute in Washington. 14. a former lawmaker from the Brotherhood seen as part of its reformist wing.within 10 days . • consider ways to collaborate with the private sector to employ best practices for measuring efforts to inform and influence target audiences.bloomberg. and assessment of U. execution. to be thrown out completely and rewritten to ensure no one can once again establish autocratic rule. one of its members Mohammed Hassanein Abdel-Al.S. “Public Praise.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. public diplomacy efforts. The military's choices for the panel's makeup were a sign of the new political legitimacy of the Muslim Brotherhood. Sun News – 2/14 (LEE KEATH and HAMZA HENDAWI . http://www. they’ll make the decision based on what is best in the Egyptians’ national interest. Non-Unique: Muslim Brotherhood has already been included in the current negotiations and elections are coming fast. a former U. The military is now also urging an end to labor strikes that spread wildly across the country Sunday and Monday.html#storylink=mirelated) CJC Egypt's long banned Muslim Brotherhood said Tuesday it intends to form a political party once democracy is established. “Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood plans political party”. officials and analysts say. “The fact that we have a good relationship means that they’re going to listen to you. Feb 13. The panel is to draw up changes at a breakneck pace .” said Graeme Bannerman. CAIRO -which it ensured through widespread election rigging.Associated Press reporters. 2. The panel is headed by Tareq el-Bishri. a legal scholar told The Associated Press. Two members on the panel said the next elected government could further change the document if it choses.com/2011/02/14/1981307/egypts-us-envoy-says-mubarakmay. 2011.S. 2011. The eight-member committee. Among the panel's members is Sobhi Saleh. “U.S. US does not have influence over Egyptian military. including expanded use of opinion research and better designate more administrative positions to overseas public affairs sections to reduce the administrative burden.to end the monopoly that ousted President Hosni Mubarak's ruling party once held. • strengthen efforts to train Foreign Service officers in foreign languages. Diplomatic capital doesn’t trade off – the state department can collaborate and hire more people to avoid any tradeoff. GAO 2003 (Government Accountability Office. as the country's new military rulers launched a panel of experts to amend the country's constitution enough to allow democratic elections later this year. The panel's convening indicated the military was trying to push ahead quickly with a transition after Mubarak resigned Friday in the face of 18 days of unprecedented popular protests that massed hundreds of thousands. Feb. • 3. along with other judges and legal experts. EBSCO) To improve the planning.”. assistance as part of a two-way bargain. reporter for Bloomberg News.S.
administration is handicapping itself with a dysfunctional bureaucratic setup that makes it harder to focus and find its footing. 5. What's more. Even in areas where diplomacy might seem to work on paper -. US diplomacy is ineffective – countries will say no and conflicts are escalating now. and Somalia. and economic power toward impressive ends.America has been in a diplomatic dry patch. The US does not have influence on the events in Egypt. once upon a time. For most of the last 16 years. http://www. however -. looking back over the last 60 years. There were.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 115/148 Cross-X. Aaron David. these are the easy ones. the U. political. But frankly. In the face of terrorism. "there were wonderful giants of old. or course.S. conventional diplomacy has either not been tried or not been very successful.under Bill Clinton and George Bush -. Pakistan.. 19881991) when the United States marshaled its military. 2-3-2010 [2/3/2010. . And America is unlikely to prevail in any meaningful sense of the word where corrupt. effective Arab-Israeli diplomacy. and India) can't be of much help. But the Obama administration and its allies have only limited influence on the future course of events on the ground in Egypt. Israel”. 2011. and much of the third and fourth worlds believe. Arab-Israeli peacemaking -. 4. But there were also brilliant achievements: the Marshall Plan. The Obama administration wants to do this kind of stuff." There's always a danger in idealizing what once was or seemed to be in order to make a point about the present.S. The image of the shuttling secretary of state preempting crises or exploiting them to broker agreements. but there were moments (1945-1950. And in one of the cruelest ironies of all. there was a time when American diplomacy did big and important things. Miller. and maybe one part diplomacy.com/mubarak-s-departure-raises-toughquestions-for-u-s-israel-20110201) CJC Policymakers in Washington and Jerusalem have assumed for days that Mubarak would soon step down. Feb. public-policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. personnel. extractive regimes are unable to control their own territory and cut deals with anti-American elements and place their security and political concerns first. “The End of Diplomacy?”.S. It's not from the big that the president's problems come. No more. More than 500 a year come to the U. wars of choice. Lamenting the absence of great men years before his own shining moment. Pakistan. president who has gone further to engage Iran than any of his predecessors is watching any hope for diplomacy being ground up by a regime under siege in Tehran. in addition to the contacts they have in Egypt with U. achieving dramatic breakthroughs with spectacular secret diplomacy seems a world away. opening to China. Still. for advanced training.S. détente with the Russians. and have already begun thinking through what may come next. and the U. And it has done pretty well in managing the big relationships with Russia and Europe.foreignpolicy. a competent American role in the acceleration and management of the end of the Cold War. and the sad fact is there may be little Barack Obama can do about it. including the Vietnam War and out-of-control CIA operations. the W.S. Dreazen – 2/1 ( Yochi Dreazen is a senior correspondent for National Journal Group covering military affairs and national security.the United States is hampered by conflicts driven by deep ethnic and religious hostility and by internal politics in which its own allies (Israel. http://www. Effective American diplomacy may well be going the way of the dodo. Winston Churchill wrote that in England. The world's gotten complicated. though it has had its share of problems with China. Foreign Policy. the early 1970s. and the first Gulf War.S. doggedly pursuing Middle East peace. America is a good deal weaker. In the end.nationaljournal. the problems are four parts military. “Mubarak's Departure Raises Tough Questions for U. the answers to the many questions set off by Mubarak’s departure will have to come from the Egyptians themselves. who help them adapt to the American weapons and equipment they receive.Kashmir.com/articles/2010/02/03/the_end_of_diplomacy?page=full] MGM Back in the day. disasters and plenty of dysfunction during these years. it seems. America never ran the world (an illusion the left. five parts nationbuilding. Afghanistan. NATO. 1. Yemen. military educational institutions such as the service war colleges and the National Defense University. In garden spots like Iraq. right. nuclear proliferation. you really do have to wonder whether America's best diplomacy and foreign policy are behind it. and nasty regional conflicts.com Thursday File ethics while studying at U. Diplomatic Capital is irrelevant in a post Mubarak world. it's from the small.
2011. Finally. but it won't last. Hezbollah. yes. and elsewhere. the social-media-savvy Moaz Abdel Karim. Perhaps the Iranian regime will collapse or the Arabs and Israelis will do something good by themselves. humourless joke -. or rather. The latter prefers to raise the banner of Jihad. A new bureaucratic flowchart won't replace skill and luck.and the Egyptian army chose to dispense with Hosni Mubarak last week. better marshal American power. one time.the choice is between feigned obedience and defiance -. And that's very bad for a great power. There will not be a transition to democracy in Egypt. They became possible because social media gave people the sense of strength in numbers -. and the actual "supreme guide" of the Muslim Brotherhood (with the infrastructure of the movement entirely behind him). Instead. one vote. for instance.age 66. with a cape of promises." which the younger generation of Islamists have mastered. America's currently fighting two wars where the standard for victory is not whether it can win but when it can leave. age 29. Algeria. And the image that comes to mind isn't a terribly kind one: America as a kind of modern-day Gulliver tied up by tiny tribes abroad and hobbled by its inability to organize its own house at home.com 116/148 Thursday File power of the small is being matched by the weakening of the big.. And there. and then very tenuously. we are asked to compare. but. make North Korea play ball.html) CJC You cannot argue with a mob -. you can. That the existing Egyptian constitution is a defunct. “Democracy and the Mob”. It wasn't a Democracy is itself the loudest false promise being casually offered in the Middle East. And al Jazeera leaped in quickly to spread the word and excitement from there. But the next several years are more likely to be tough ones for American diplomacy. yes.. their protection rackets.after nearly a decade of bloodshed. Warren – 2/17 (David Warren. operating through the mosques. revised daily to keep up with the demands. or Islamist equivalents (Hamas. And the United States has departed from the one model that has proven successful: the strong foreign-policy president empowering the strong secretary of state who rides herd over subcabinet-level envoys in real time and in close coordination with the president on strategy.may be conceded. or Iran for that matter. get the Arabs and the Israelis to cooperate. only two "parties" are seriously organized. It will not be available within days or weeks.well before they actually had the numbers on the street. bring Tehran to heel. Israel. February 17. The mob is now electronically summoned and enhanced. about the aspirations of women. Whom should we trust? We have read much about those twittering "social media. http://www. in Iraq -. it makes success all that much harder." arguably. The more sophisticated commentators in the West have been drawing contrasts between the older and younger manifestations of Islamism.com/articles/2011/02/17/our_incoherent_response_to_middle_east_ch aos_108923. But if you don't have the right structure. only because Bush and company dwelt upon the "civil society" aspects. which has much of the world wondering about what kind of great power the United States really is.realclearpolitics. The nation's top diplomat (the secretary of state) seems to be everywhere and nowhere in terms of owning issues and finding a way to take on some of the nastiest challenges. . yes. party elections. In the case of Egypt. Jordan. You don't have to be a declinist (I'm not) to see how far the image of American power has fallen. the other the Muslim Brotherhood. nor contribute to the possibilities for mature and intelligent . and Jews. a new constitution. These latter have already created their parallel welfare and regulatory agencies. Reforms. with the rhetorically bludgeoning Mohamed Badi -. The former speaks sensitively but vacuously about pluralism in religion and politics. this does not make it any easier to argue with.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. It's still early. It is trying to play the forces loosed on Cairo streets and elsewhere as a bull. even a kind of judicial and legislative apparatus. and neither is parliamentary by disposition. It exists only tissue of false promises. to return to where I started." Even reduced to "free and fair multi- democracy remains unavailable for the foreseeable future. more money for everyone! You cannot write a constitution in 10 days. It corresponded approximately to the reality. The demonstrations were certainly organized through them. in combination with partisan and sensationalized mass media. and now. which is what secretaries of state are supposed to do. Forget the economic meltdown. Whether it's an inability to get tough sanctions from the international community against Iran. The Internet. have rewritten many of the rules. the Obama administration has created an empire of envoys with power concentrated in the White House but without real purpose or strategy. The Brotherhood and Military will prevent it either way. and maybe the Obama administration will get lucky. the world has gotten used to saying no to America without cost or consequence. multi-party elections. 6. while belabouring three topics: Zionism. and made limitations upon democracy fairly plain. consciously resisting "one man. there's the issue of how the country organizes itself. the alternative is to write them in water. and so on). Most old-world constitutions were written in blood (Canada's was unusual). because in Egypt. And yet there was one thing to be said for it.dictated by a dictator -. along with everyone else. or create genuine opportunities for success abroad. in Egypt. or push the Pakistanis to hit the Taliban and al Qaeda in a sustained way. One would be the civilian military order behind each existing autocracy. Staff. Yemen.
*** . It instead creates a new and much broader field for anarchy.com 117/148 Thursday File deliberation over the path ahead. From anarchy to totalitarianism is one Persian step.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. ***Uniqueness Ans.
anti-terror efforts in the country that harbors an active and threatening subset of al Qaeda. has less leverage in the region than ever before. CNN Staff. but he was also key to U.us. CNN – 2/2 (Elise Labott and Josh Levs. http://www. In Yemen.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – N/U: Dip Cap Low US diplomatic capital is at an all-time low. Lebanon is in the throes of a dangerous game of brinksmanship that threatens to send the country back into civil war after Hezbollah. ***Link Level*** . a strongman president has been ejected. 2011.-backed government of Prime Minister Saad Hariri and installed billionaire businessman Najib Mikati as its choice for the job. February 2. supported by Syria and Iran. Iran showed the U.S. and its allies that it will remain defiant on its nuclear program in the face of tough sanctions.S.S. We don’t have the influence to do anything in the region. At talks last month in Istanbul. Turkey.egypt/index.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS %3A+Politics%29) CJC the U. “The Sweep: The risk of democracy in the Middle East”. brought down the U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 118/148 Cross-X.com/2011/POLITICS/02/02/sweep.cnn. Today.S.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 119/148
Cross-X.com Thursday File
Iraq Aff – Link Turn
Withdrawing from Iraq saves diplomatic capital – shifts focus elsewhere while Iraq takes the lead. Scowcroft, 5-13-2010 [Brett, former US National Security Advisor, 2010 GLOBAL SECURITY FORUM, http://csis.org/files/attachments/100513_middleeast_panel_transcript.pdf]
Q: Chet Crocker, Georgetown University. A couple of 20,000-foot questions for a retired Air Force general and a screenplay writer. (Laughter.) Brent, you mentioned the phrase, “a nurturing presence,” and I wonder what kind of post-Iraq war, postAfghan war military footprint you see in that part of the world, and what role for our diplomacy? Are we going to be the lead actor on all the issues that we’ve been touching on – Israel-Palestine, India-Pakistan, and of course, Gulf security architecture, which David mentioned? So are we going to be the lead diplomatic presence and the lead
military presence in this region? And should this region continue to occupy 80 percent of our political and diplomatic capital around the world? Thank you. LT. GEN. SCOWCROFT: Chet, I think you’re the best one to answer that question. I would hope that we would back down a little bit from leadership in the region to, if you will, nurturing and cooperation and encouragement for the region to get itself together and to move in unison. It’s fundamentally a rich region. Iraq, for example, has huge natural resources. The right kind of encouragement could do a lot to turn Iraqi-Iranian relationship to one, at least, of toleration. I think Jordan is another problem, which is, in part, a regional problem. Aside from the issues of the East Bank, and so on, there are close to a million Iraqi refugees in Jordan. This is a terrible burden for a state without the natural resources that some of the others have. I think we can use our ability to organize and guide in a way which encourages the best instincts of the region without saying, we’ve dealt with these military problems; now we’re going to set the region
straight, because I don’t think we’re able to do that.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 120/148
Cross-X.com Thursday File
Afghanistan Aff – Link Turn
Afghanistan presence devastates dip cap. South China Morning Post, 2009 [Greg Torode, 12-3, "Will Obama's Afghan strategy play into China's hands?", Lexis] Obama's Afghan strategy - 100,000 troops and a withdrawal beginning in July 2011 - will demand costly intangibles and some are wondering whether it is here, in East Asia, that Washington will end up paying that bill. Quagmire in Afghanistan could further play into the hands of an emerging China that is fast
US President Barack challenging the strategic assumptions that have governed East Asia for decades. Even if the dramatic escalation of 30,000 extra troops goes smoothly, the military, political and diplomatic capital expended will be considerable. And it is
being spent by a fresh, young hopeful, but an exhausted warrior trying to restore his reserves of blood and treasure after two conflicts, and the worst economic crisis in a generation. Will Afghanistan divert Washington's attention from the more subtle but vital task of dealing with the rise of China and balancing ties across East Asia, where, for decades, it has been the primary military power? Will it divert the energies of US institutions just as they are supposed to be engaging China on an ever-broadening range of issues, from the
not environment and water management to freedom of navigation? Then there are the worst case scenarios. Would Afghanistan commitments mean the US could not respond fully to a military crisis in the region, say a conflict over Taiwan or the Korean peninsula? Afghanistan, after all, is now Obama's war. These are the questions being asked across
the region just weeks after Obama staged his first visit to set the tone for what he hopes will be eight years of complex engagement - deepening ties with China while boosting existing alliances and reaching
to out to new friends. No one is pretending China would create that crisis but some believe Beijing would quietly seek to exploit any perceived vacuum. Dr Ian Storey, a scholar at Singapore's Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, said a sense that the US risked bogging itself down in Afghanistan could embolden Beijing. "On a strategic level, it might reinforce China's perceptions that the US is a declining power," he said. "And I think that, in turn, could make Beijing more assertive in the region. We might see China being more confident about pushing the theme of a new multipolar world like they tried in the 1990s, a world where the US is more of a 'normal' power." Already, US military officials describe more frequent encounters with Chinese warships across the region, a presence expected to grow. On the diplomatic front, US diplomats and their regional allies find their Beijing counterparts increasingly assertive. While Afghanistan might force Washington to draw away from the Pacific theatre - its biggest presence - its important naval engagement with the region was unlikely to diminish, Storey said. "We can see the US is exhausted," one veteran Japanese envoy said privately. "Taking on fresh burdens in Afghanistan leaves us wondering about the response in a crisis. With the best will, it would be a great challenge ... they are already stretched." Professor Shi Yinghong, director of the Centre for American Studies at Renmin University, said China would now pay closer attention to developments in Afghanistan. Although China would avoid publicly commenting on Obama's Afghan decision, Shi said Beijing would be concerned no matter whether America won or lost the war. "It will be a very distant concern. Beijing will be more immediately concerned if the US loses the war, in this case, its ally Pakistan will be affected, and security in the region will be undermined," he said. "If the war is won, then Beijing will be uncomfortable to have so many US soldiers near its border." In practical terms, Beijing has appeared content to stand on the sidelines through the war to date. Repeated US requests to exploit bases on the Chinese side of the border for refuelling missions have been refused. More recently, US officials have requested an opening of the small but strategic Sino-Afghan border to allow troops and supplies to be ferried down the mountainous Wakhan Corridor. The issue was raised during Obama's recent mission to Beijing but has yet to be approved. No offers of hard military support is expected any time soon. Most analysts believe China is unlikely to want to be involved in a war led by US-dominated Nato forces rather than the UN. But some in the region believe Obama will not be easily diverted. Professor Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University, said Obama had made considerable gains in Southeast Asia compared with his predecessor. He has entrenched ties with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and has taken the risk of engaging Myanmar's junta. "Despite all the challenges he will face in Afghanistan, I think the track in this part of the world is set ... his administration has done more in a year than Bush did in eight years," he said. "We fully expect that will continue."
Investment in Afghan war is wasting Obama’s diplomatic capital – aff frees it up. Carpenter, 6-27-2010 [Dan, Writer and columnist for the IndyStar, “No credit for taking charge,” http://www.indystar.com/article/20100627/OPINION05/6270333/1039/OPINION05/No-credit-fortaking-charge]
Like Lincoln, President Barack
has found it necessary to change generals in the middle of a war. Unlike Lincoln, this
president seems unlikely to defeat the South. With Afghanistan, his chances of victory are roughly equal to Lincoln's, assuming that victory means a secure, friendly populace under the firm control of a government established under the auspices of the U.S. military. Even a gunboat diplomacy buff like George Will sees no hope or necessity for the Afghanistan expedition. Liberals are left pretty much in a quagmire, suffering through another political oil
splash on their man without reason to believe his handling of this affront has any bearing on the alleged business at hand. "Success" in Afghanistan is as remote to the vast majority of
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.com 121/148 Thursday File Americans (those without loved ones there) as Afghanistan itself. To the extent they discuss the
commander in chief as they stand in line for their iPhones, they talk in terms of his domestic war, the bone-deep conflict between a Northern urbanite and a devout resistance dominated by the South and Southwest. Recognizing the potency of right-wing sentiment, and the inconstancy of the so-called Blue Dog Democrats, Obama long ago adopted a strategy of cooptation. Assure the other side you share their narrowly defined basic values of patriotism and morality and middle-class preeminence, and hope they'll drop their guard against your more imaginative agenda. Because nobody dares run for president as an
antiwar candidate, Obama chose to label Iraq as the wrong war, leaving Afghanistan as the right war and obligating himself to prosecute that waste of lives, money and diplomatic capital. He played into the mass fantasy that global upheaval can be reduced to the mischief of a few terrorist bands. He threw in the bonus of a sort-of deadline for bringing the troops home. None of it has pleased North or South on this side of the proverbial water's edge. It
couldn't even spare him a bizarre cross-cultural kneecapping by his top general in, of all places, Rolling Stone magazine. Hardly a match for Lincoln's dark nights of the soul, I guess; but our much-maligned 16th president surely died with confidence that historians would vindicate him. He waged a terrible war that ended insurrection, ended slavery -- and ended. No American
war has taken longer to reach its end than the current one that Barack Obama purported to welcome. Its end is not in sight, and the absence of evil that it would bring about is something our visionary leader is unable to picture for us. Lincoln's eloquence about bereaved military families who "have
laid so costly a sacrifice upon the altar of freedom" can hardly be appropriated for a disjointed and deadly security operation for a corrupt and ineffectual foreign regime. The battle, then, is to save face on the home front. To show who is in command. It has to be an ill-fitting role for a man who sought to dial down his predecessor's emphasis on the military and offer an open hand to the non-Western world. Playing it is the price he has had to pay to be president. He can go ahead and break a leg, as they say in show business; but he'll hear little applause from South, North, or, when it comes to his chosen war, posterity.
and what role for our diplomacy? Are we going to be the lead actor on all the issues that we’ve been touching on – Israel-Palestine. there are close to a million Iraqi refugees in Jordan. The right kind of encouragement could do a lot to turn Iraqi-Iranian relationship to one. Iraq. former US National Security Advisor.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 122/148 Cross-X. postAfghan war military footprint you see in that part of the world. Scowcroft.pdf] Q: Chet Crocker. if you will. now we’re going to set the region straight. I think Jordan is another problem. Aside from the issues of the East Bank.) Brent. has huge natural resources. and of course. you mentioned the phrase. for example. which David mentioned? So are we going to be the lead diplomatic presence and the lead military presence in this region? And should this region continue to occupy 80 percent of our political and diplomatic capital around the world? Thank you. 2010 GLOBAL SECURITY FORUM. a regional problem. “a nurturing presence. (Laughter. 5-13-2010 [Brett. we’ve dealt with these military problems. Georgetown University. I think we can use our ability to organize and guide in a way which encourages the best instincts of the region without saying. which is. at least. A couple of 20. http://csis. because I don’t think we’re able to do that. in part. . I would hope that we would back down a little bit from leadership in the region to.com Thursday File Iraq Aff – Link Turn Withdrawing from Iraq saves diplomatic capital – shifts focus elsewhere while Iraq takes the lead. Gulf security architecture. nurturing and cooperation and encouragement for the region to get itself together and to move in unison. of toleration. LT. GEN. India-Pakistan. It’s fundamentally a rich region. I think you’re the best one to answer that question.000-foot questions for a retired Air Force general and a screenplay writer.org/files/attachments/100513_middleeast_panel_transcript. This is a terrible burden for a state without the natural resources that some of the others have. and so on. SCOWCROFT: Chet.” and I wonder what kind of post-Iraq war.
. rights. demanded the "withdrawal of all U. [troops] abroad to further [its] national security and foreign policy objectives[. University of San Francisco Law Review. which] has profound implications under United States and international law and raises . Fall. The United States has a long history of "sending ." n19 This Comment focuses on an instrument essential to America's military placement On February 16.." n18 As the global community becomes more aware of Japanese dissatisfaction.. 2001. L. Lexis] MGM a local assembly on Okinawa. 37 U.F. status.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 123/148 Cross-X. “Status of Forces Agreements: Tools to Further Effective Foreign Policy and Lessons To Be Learned from the United States-Japan Agreement”. Rev. . Marines on the island and the resignation of their commander. JD graduate at University of San Francisco School of Law. issues of .. privileges. 227.S.com Thursday File Japan Aff – Link Turn Withdrawing from Okinawa ends criticism of the US. 2002 [Jaime. the site of America's largest military base in Japan. scheme: the Status of Forces Agreement ("SOFA"). allowing us to pursue diplomatic endeavor Gher. and immunities. the more likely it is that United States diplomatic endeavors will be thwarted and its international reputation tarnished...S.
com/scholastic/document?_m =235f2b6f28fe5116dc52324e38ebfe4c&_docnum=1&wchp=dGLzVlzzSkVk&_md5=bcef5cca117ffa071d3621 bd40b67ba6) Congressional activism on gender policy provides an avenue for shifting the image of the U.g. from one of military hard power to a moral and diplomatic leader. attitudes of distrust tend to fester and further reduce our leverage. The Vanderbilt Journal of Transnational Law.com Thursday File Link – Link Turn – South Korea K Aff Link Turn: US focus should shift from military power and towards gender policy. 120 In particular." including international standards to which the United States committed.g. Such a change would significantly increase diplomatic capital. gender equality) often serves to enhance credibility in an unrelated human rights arena (e. http://web. Congressional legislation serves the dual purpose of restoring the U. 114 Credibility in one human [*749] rights arena (e. gender legislation advances U.S. which can . image as a champion of gender equality as well as signaling that Congress takes its responsibility for fulfilling international human rights obligations seriously. such as those present in gender policy. ***Internal Answers*** . 113 This shift increases U. 119 Readers should be cautious not to overestimate the value of U. In this way. 118 Areas of legal and moral contradiction. "soft power grows out of our culture. May 2010. 115 Professor Joseph Nye describes the above phenomenon as "soft power": "Soft power is the ability to get what you want through attraction rather than coercion or payments. Lawyer and writer in the Vanderbilt Law School Journal of Transnational Law**. However. “Congress’s Attempted Response to the World’s Demand for the Violence Against Women Act”.lexis-nexis.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 124/148 Cross-X.S soft power interests. diplomatic capital. this Note does not mean to suggest that if Congress passes legislation that addresses gender problems in America.translate into success for U." 116 Nye argues that "when American policies lose their legitimacy and credibility in the eyes of others.in much the same way a President spends political capital to achieve policy objectives on Capitol Hill . out of our domestic values and policies. Certainly. all of the damage currently spanning the U. create the loss of the legitimacy and credibility necessary to build soft power. LexisNexis." 117 "Problems arise for our soft power when we do not live up to our own standards. credibility on gender equality issues. Culpepper 2010 (Brenton.S.S. foreign policy goals.S.S.S." and reclaiming legitimacy by addressing domestic gender-motivated violence as a human rights issue can communicate this cultural value. moral ethos would dissipate. child labor).
com Thursday File Aff – Egypt: No Influence US does not have influence over Egyptian military. “Also the people of Egypt would likely not accept it. has had much influence over the decisions of the Egyptian military during the turmoil in Cairo and other major cities.S. Bannerman and others said.html) CJC The standards taught “include a role for civilian influence over decision-making. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. http://www. Feb 13.” said Paul Sullivan. 2011. The Egyptian military isn’t likely to get too involved in details of constitutional changes or get so comfortable that they would want to hang on to power. reporter for Bloomberg News. “Public Praise. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger.” said Robert Springborg. “I think the military has looked after its own interests as the high command sees them.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military. Springborg said he doesn’t think the U. “They are just not the types to want to do that.” he said.bloomberg. California.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 125/148 Cross-X.” . a professor of political economy of the Middle East at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey. a professor of economics at the National Defense University in Washington.
“They see the aid as a partnership. As a result.S.” Bannerman said. receives.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military. he said. Gates and Mullen aren’t likely to press too hard. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”.” .bloomberg. “They’re smart enough to know that’s not how to get them to do it. 2011. reporter for Bloomberg News. as recompense for its 1979 peace agreement with Israel and for basing and access that the U. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. http://www.S.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt: Aid =/= Influence Aid does not influence Egyptian military.html) CJC The Egyptian military sees the aid it receives every year from the U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 126/148 Cross-X. “Public Praise. Feb 13. analysts said. they see it as compensation for the Peace Accords with Israel.
has zero influence over what happens on the ground in Egypt. He is the author of several bestselling books including "Inside the Asylum. In his brief Tuesday evening remarks.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 127/148 Cross-X." he said. White House Chief of Staff William Daley. 2011.com/articles/2011/02/02/egypts_future_will_be_decided_by_the_milit ary.S. “Egypt's Future Will Be Decided by the Military”. they know the outcome is out of their control. This loss of influence is apparently misunderstood or. Neither will the choice of his successor. “White House Charts a New Plan”. 1/31/2011. is a 'spectator' Despite its financial sway. February 2.S. FEBRUARY 3. "It's important to keep in mind that the United States is not going to change the course of events in Egypt or anywhere else. to borrow a malapropism from a former president. "The United States is really a spectator to a phenomenon that has taken on a life of its own.” By that remark.html? mod=rss_Politics_And_Policy) CJC How the administration overcomes Mr. These dashed expectations Obama has created in the region are not just disappointing. he threw our lot with the demonstrators who seek Mubarak's immediate removal and made Mubarak's time to organize any transition even more limited than they were before. “Egyptian Crisis Biggest Foreign Test Yet for Obama Administration”. and it must begin now. Stone – 1/31 (Andrea Stone.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – No Influence U. Wall Street Journal – 2/3 (JONATHAN WEISMAN And ADAM ENTOUS. Babbin – 2/2 (Jed Babbin served as a Deputy Undersecretary of Defense under George H. 2011.egypt/index. not only to show progress on solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict but to encourage democratic reform. Bush.unless the Egyptian armed forces choose to intervene may tilt Egypt into the radical Islamist sphere now dominated by Iran.com/article/SB10001424052748703960804576120064121963244.com/2011/01/31/egyptian-crisis-biggest-foreign-test-yet-for-obamaadministratio/) CJC U. Whether his regime falls now or leaves of its own accord later will not be decided in Washington. misunderestimated by the Obama administration and its media surrogates." US is reactionary. which has been solidly pro-American since the advent of King Abdullah's reign. US does not have influence over the Middle East. meeting with journalists Wednesday.W. http://www. Mubarak and moves to an interim government is not clear.realclearpolitics.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS %3A+Politics%29) CJC Although it came into office hoping to seduce the region rather than fight it.cnn. "A lot of this is totally out of our control." Much of the White House response has been "reacting to the circumstances on the street and the knowledge we obtain. http://www. President Obama did a good job of pretending that we have significant influence on the events in Egypt which will determine who rules in Mubarak's place. Political Analyst for Politics Daily. “The Sweep: The risk of democracy in the Middle East”. In fact. said. CNN Staff.politicsdaily. Change in the region comes not from his encouragement but from the disaffected taking matters into their own hands. CNN – 2/2 (Elise Labott and Josh Levs. who . .wsj. DC or the New York Times' editorial boardroom. the Obama administration has not delivered on the tantalizing promises it made since taking over." Ottaway said. it must be peaceful.html) CJC Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's Tuesday promise to not run for reelection does not mean his government will survive through the scheduled September contest. Jordan. US has zero influence over the outcome in Egypt.us. 2011. February 2. http://online. Staff Writers. But he did say one thing that will influence events there: that transition in Egypt "must be meaningful.com/2011/POLITICS/02/02/sweep.". http://www." and "In the Words of Our Enemies. America has lost the ability to influence the shape of post-Mubarak Egypt and it faces growing crises in another moderate Arab state.
are taking the lead. whose interests don't always align with Washington's.com 128/148 Thursday File they have hurt U. countries like Turkey and Qatar. to help in times of crisis. . This troubled region has always looked to the U. credibility in the region and have had diplomats and Middle East experts scratching their heads about just what Obama's vision for the region is.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.S. Now.S.
*** . at least up to a point.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 129/148 Cross-X. They can be baought by radical forces. ***A2: Counterterrorism*** ***Impact Ans. when Mubarak falls.they are loyal to their officers. On Monday. But what if. That source emphasized that the Egyptian army's deep rooted culture and mentality will prevail. Babbin – 2/2 (Jed Babbin served as a Deputy Undersecretary of Defense under George H.com/articles/2011/02/02/egypts_future_will_be_decided_by_the_milit ary. He is the author of several bestselling books including "Inside the Asylum.realclearpolitics.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – No Influence: Military US does not have influence over the military. it's entirely possible that a new Islamist regime could purchase the military's loyalty. A senior American military source who trained with Egyptian forces for years echoed those thoughts and added this: the Egyptian army's officer corps is loyal to Mubarak. We cannot expect that the Egyptian army will have become a democratic force as a result of our deep connections with it.W." and "In the Words of Our Enemies.from inside Egypt and emanating from Iran and Syria . February 2. the officers and men have some prestige in Egyptian society which they wish to maintain. “Egypt's Future Will Be Decided by the Military”.html) CJC As one very senior retired Israeli officer told me. 2011. a more radical government rises in its place? Another senior American military source opined that the Egyptian military would not permit a radical Islamic regime like the Tehran Ayatollahs from taking control. In 1973 they even expelled the Soviets from Egypt. Bush. But given Egypt's culture and its military's low-paid status. http://www. Though they aren't well-trained by US standards because they have little funding to train.again reflecting Egypt's weak economy and consistent failure to spend enough to create and train effective forces . the Egyptian army didn't become communist when it was heavily equipped (rather more than it needed) by the Soviet Union. But that does not mean it will remain on the sidelines indefinitely.". That is the most likely scenario if radical Islamic influence . the Egyptian military proclaimed it would not use violence against the Cairo demonstrators. Though the enlisted men in Egyptian forces are very poorly paid . But they will resist a radical regime.manage to tip the balance their way.
Washington Post Staff Writers.S. Many counterterrorism officials and Middle East experts are skeptical that al-Qaeda will benefit from Egypt's political upheaval. 2011. at least in the short run.washingtonpost. a consulting firm. 3 warrants: A.com/wpdyn/content/article/2011/02/12/AR2011021203581. February 13. Turn: Egypt democracy regardless of the outcomes undercut Al-Qaeda. now chairman of ERG Partners. If anything.html?hpid=topnews) CJC officials. B. Michele Dunne.S. the moderates are the first to go.com Thursday File A2: Counterterrorism Impacts No risk of collapsing counterterrorism operations. if Some former the future Egyptian government is less repressive." a democratic Muslim nation.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 130/148 Cross-X. argue that Egypt is likely to continue much of its cooperation. Scott Carpenter. the Brotherhood "understands the extremists better than anyone else. another former State Department Middle East expert. 2 figure in al-Qaeda. has good counterterrorism cooperation with governments of countries like Turkey. a Middle East expert with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy." Indeed. They note the country has every interest in combating terrorism. C. said Dunne. agreed that the new Egyptian government will be much more sensitive to public opinion than Mubarak's regime. "But the U. she said. an Egyptian who is the No. "The developments in Egypt are actually devastating to al-Qaeda. Al-Qaeda opposes the kind of democracy that millions of Egyptians called for in the 18 days of mass demonstrations that led to Mubarak's toppling. “Mubarak resignation throws into question U. 21 people died in a carbomb attack on a Coptic Christian church in Alexandria. "The idea we can't do business with countries responsive to their citizens is a false one. having suffered years of assassinations and other attacks by extremist Muslim groups. "maybe Egypt won't be producing terrorists" like Ayman al-Zawahiri. Turkey could fill the intelligence void.-Egyptian counterterrorism work”. and polls show that Egyptians overwhelmingly reject the group's brutal methods and rigid ideology. Al-Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood have been foes for decades." said J. Grenier predicted the relationship would continue even if the Muslim Brotherhood controlled the next government. Washington Post – 2/13 (Mary Beth Sheridan and Joby Warrick. in revolutionary situations. ***A2: Spillover/Instability*** . now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace." said the former CIA official. Egypt will continue its cooperation even with Muslim Brotherhood in power. http://www. Only last month. however. They know that.
“Egypt has not been center of gravity in the Middle East for a very long time. but they weren’t going at all.8 percent) there than in Egypt. the arts. Hirsh – 1/31 ( Michael Hirsh is chief correspondent for National Journal. “What we see is the king realizing that this is a serious public movement. as Ben Ali did to the surprise of many experts. in terms of money. Overturning a government requires that a whole array of unusual circumstances align at once. “the king backed away from it. The spillover or domino effect tends to be less than people fear it will.” Muasher developed a political reform plan five years ago.com Thursday File Aff – No Egypt Spillover Egypt uprisings will not spillover into instability in the Middle East. the media. It is quite possible that the rapid toppling of two long-entrenched Arab dictators -.its time of influence has passed.S. “Containing Egypt: If Mubarak Goes.nationaljournal. a change of government. “It has been a game-changer in how people see their governments and their ability to change them. not that things were going badly. which must increase popular participation in the decision making. “The aristocracy is often the last to know their time is over. then possibly Mubarak -." Bodine added.” But that still is a long way from revolution.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 131/148 Cross-X.” Abdullah’s statement also called for an “immediate revision” of the laws governing politics and public freedom. "I think what you’re watching is this utter frustration. former U. not least of which is a leader who turns and flees. late Tuesday and ordered him to “undertake quick and tangible steps for real political reforms.politico. The king described economic reform as a “necessity to provide a better life for our people.” said a U. Tunisia’s Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. though he added that “Jordan is different from Tunisia and Egypt. government is that the turmoil in Egypt is likely containable politically -. but it is going to have an impact across the Middle East. however.” There is no risk of spreading instability. official involved in analyzing the Arab world.com/nationalsecurity/some-u-s-experts-argue-yes--20110131) CJC That’s the only certainty now as well -. Does the Revolution Stop There?”.4 percent compared to Egypt’s 9. In Yemen. King Abdullah is also running a police state that brooks no dissent. but as soon as the Jordanian political establishment raised alarms. “Remember in 2003 to 2005. more than Mubarak.7 percent (according to CIA estimates).could spread quickly to other regimes. 2011.” said Martin Indyk. until Tunisia. After all. January 31.” according to a statement. Leaders throughout the Middle East are pushing reforms quickly to prevent uprisings. and so he gave the protesters what they were asking for. that the move could trigger real change.” Indeed. especially since economic discontent seems a central motivation.that it sends reverberations throughout the region but without a wave of revolution to follow. which reflect our vision for comprehensive modernization and development in Jordan. Still.no one really knows. the former ambassador to Yemen and a longtime specialist in Near East affairs. and by doing so. but we won’t be able to attain that without real political reforms. And Abdullah has. the king has a template — the . February 1.the country that others looked to -. while Egypt was once seen as the aristocracy of the Arab world -. the last one to occur in the region had been the Iranian revolution -. when people were predicting another Arab spring. Saudi Arabia is ostensibly rich and under rigid control. the betting among some of the more sober-minded analysts of Arab and Middle East politics inside and outside the U. 2011. who is of Jordanian descent and serves as advocacy director for the American Task Force on Palestine.com/news/stories/0211/48649. Political Reporters for Poiltico.” said Muasher. Marouf al-Bakhit. who is now vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. namely. where the unemployment rate is 13. both on its own right and when viewed in the regional context. The Jordanian monarchy is still widely viewed as stable in spite of a large and restive population of Palestinian refugees and observers who said it is unclear whether the shake-up — unlike Mubarak’s new government in Egypt — represents a move toward real change. http://www. Hirsh previously served as the senior editor and national economics correspondent for Newsweek. “What you had was this gerontocracy sitting on top of an ossified bureaucracy.and that remained a one-off event for three decades. Egypt’s government is uniquely despised for precisely the reason that it has been so stagnant in its policies. Former Jordanian Foreign Minister Marwan Muasher said. “Egypt unrest threatens to spread”. Ali Abdullah Saleh is presiding over terrible poverty and an unemployment rate that the CIA says runs as high as 35 percent. The Iraqis were holding elections.” said Barbara Bodine.html) CJC Jordan’s King Abdullah II named a new prime minister. there’s no fear of the system collapsing in any way. ambassador to Israel and current director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution. but unemployment is higher (10.S. “It’s a serious wake-up call that reform can’t wait any longer.first. “So. he hopes to ensure that they do not demand anything more. Politico – 2/1 (Ben Smith and Laura Rozen. in terms of education. “King Abdullah of Jordan and the Gulf Arab leaders have the ability to adapt.” said Ghaith al-Omari. http://www." Bodine said. So were the Palestinians.” Beyond that. pushed for reforms. There were a lot of predictions that got way ahead of where the facts were. In Jordan.S. “I don’t see it as a brush fire spreading across the Middle East.
depriving Arab Bruce countries of their traditional monopoly over the flow of information. One day after the protests broke out in Egypt.com/articles/7022549122) CJC The use of crushing military force to put down popular uprisings has lost its punch in the Arab Middle East. In September 1970. “Times are changing use of force in Arab world”. a Yemeni think-tank. However. King Hussein of Jordan sent tanks into Palestinian refugee camps to quash an armed insurrection. Today. leaders appear to be altering their tactics. ‘Gentlemen. Kuwait’s government announced payments of more than $3. February 2.’” What is clear is that the turmoil in Tunisia and Egypt has roiled the region with an intensity not seen since the 1970s. "The era of tanks and security control is over. Across the region. President Ali Abdullah — who last week raised the salaries of government employees and soldiers — announced expanded payments to thousands of poor families and eliminated tuition for students at state universities." Aish Ali Awwas. Less than 24 hours after Egyptian president Husni Mubarak announced he would neither run again for office nor nominate his son Gamal." Awwas said. said that Arab leaders were now opting for a proactive approach. head of strategic studies at the Sheba Center for Strategic Studies (SCSS).” said Human Rights Watch Washington Director Tom Malinowski. "The important thing is he will not be able to bequeath the Presidency to his son. trying to avert the mistakes made by their Egyptian and Tunisian counterparts. Dr. The question is whether he will now have the basis to go to the East Bank establishment and say. "I will not extend my mandate and I am against hereditary rule. abandoning plans to change the constitution enabling him to rule for life. In the Palestinian city Ramallah." Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh told his country’s parliament. we will all go down together.com Thursday File Muasher plan. Even seemingly stable regimes — notably American allies like Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. but only reforms in the election system and a tougher government approach to corruption. the government — which is publicly cheering Egyptian protesters — is also flexing its muscle. And the evident American and European willingness to watch Mubarak fall may have prompted autocrats to re-evalute their own relationships. taking both concrete and symbolic steps. he added. more violence is sometimes used. The new era will be one of peaceful activities. Saleh's 32-year presidency will expire in 2013. whose small populations and immense wealth have typically allowed the regimes to defuse political protest — responded visibly. such as by the Iranian regime of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that crushed the popular opposition riots following the elections last year. and after King Abdullah of Jordan sacked Prime Minister Samir Rifai and his cabinet. In Iran. ahead of a "Day of Rage" scheduled for Thursday by civil society groups.S. Miller – 2/2 (David E. a senior Middle East researcher at the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel-Aviv University. The opposition did not demand Saleh's resignation either." Awwas said that President Saleh's announcement was more likely an attempt to quell opposition rage than a sincere declaration he would step down. "What happened in Tunisia and Egypt has an impact on other Arab states.500 to its subjects to subsidize the cost of food. including one Dutch national who participated in European protests.allheadlinenews. "They’re trying to defuse the atmosphere and recalibrate. as opposed to representing a set of meaningless talking points they can ignore. “They’re dumbfounded by the notion that the U. where protesters have clashed with police. because there will be no backlash from other governments. sink or swim? If we do not implement this political reform program now. after what happened in Tunisia and Egypt. In both events. governments have visibly responded to the fear of spreading turmoil: In Yemen. "Everyone now is focused on the day after Saleh. the Yemeni president on Wednesday announced he would not stand for another term. Miller. ***A2: Iran Reform*** . reportedly executing a record number of prisoners in January." During the 1970s and 1980s Arab rulers used massive force without hesitation to quell local opposition. http://www. President Mahmoud Abbas canceled the elections in 2009 for fear that his Fatah party would lose seats. There will be no spill over from Egypt creating instability. thousands of civilians lost their lives. In 1982 iron-fisted Syrian forces leveled the city of Hama as President Hafez Al-Assad ruthlessly crushed a Sunni Islamic revolt.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 132/148 Cross-X. told The Media Line. He said that new media made it more difficult for regimes to use hard force." Maddy-Weitzman told The Media Line. government’s rhetoric about human rights and democracy might actually mean something. the Western-backed authority said it would move swiftly to hold local elections. quickly giving in to the demands of change from their people. Maddy-Weitzman. Reporter. 2011.
But Iran’s green movement had more in common with the Lebanese Cedar Revolution of 2005 than with the 2011 uprising in North Africa. But again. January 31. “Iran won't take cues from Egypt”. It may be a stretch for the Iranian government to proclaim that Arab protesters are revolting against U. is in line with the government’s. “Tunis envy. The Iranian media covered both extensively. In Tehran. coddled and encouraged by Washington and who acted against the wishes of their citizens. http://dyn. Persians are not Arabs and have little in common with them culturally. an Iranian-American writer. Facile comparisons aside. That’s not to say that the anti-Americanism displayed by Iranians is anything but anti-imperialism. 2011. famously.politico. Iranians have a long history.S. Arab protesters could have only dreamed about what Iran has achieved politically in the past 30-plus years.S. Many of the green movement’s demands still resonate with Iranians — some even. and is unlikely to reappear anytime soon. Iranian exiles and many Western analysts have declared the country an unredeemable dictatorship. interests. more than a century. is the author of “The Ayatollahs’ Democracy: An Iranian Challenge”. however. Those large demonstrations are being cited as the sparks that ignited the imagination of all who live under repressive regimes in the Middle East.” It is not so different in Iran — except that popular opinion on U. But major change in Iran is unlikely to come .S. Iran has been subjected to U. But Iran has been free of foreign influence — even if its citizens haven’t always agreed with the government’s policies. the government has not shied away from gleefully reporting the Arab uprisings.cfm?uuid=D87B8D53-EA90-B6B4-DB70DE791553C0EC) CJC There has been a temptation in the West to tie the convulsions in Tunisia. until now. Iranian supporters of the green movement were quick to disseminate catchy slogans: “Tunes tunest. blue state dynamic in the United States than to the one-man rule of many Arab states. and is. at least among the majority of Iranians. As with the Lebanese protests. while Arab countries are key strategic allies and their governments receive billions of dollars in U.S. that turned out to be an illusion.com Thursday File Aff – No Iran Reform There will be no Iranian overthrow of government sparked from the Egyptian protests. That is not to say that there is no discontent or that the green movement — more a civil rights movement than the revolution that many in the West had hoped for — is completely irrelevant. Iran couldn’t or. This Iranian narrative. much like the Cedar Revolution. But within Iran. apart from the severity of the government’s crackdown. officials that Iran’s opposition green movement will now be motivated by what it inspired and rise up again to overthrow the Islamic system. however.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 133/148 Cross-X. with Ahmadinejad and his government. the green movement’s large number of demonstrators gave the impression that the entire country was unified behind one goal. support — little of which trickles down to their citizens. In the West. which affect ordinary citizens’ quality of life. Egypt and elsewhere in the Arab world to Iran’s 2009 green movement protests. politically or even religiously. But there was little indication that Iran’s youth were readying themselves for another challenge to authority.S. however. If there is any secret desire among U. In the almost two years since.” meaning Tunisia could. One reason the green movement lost steam in Iran. But it is indisputable that the popular opinion of Arab states runs contrary to what we ordinarily call “U. sanctions. or sedition. Majd – 1/31 (Hooman Majd. of democratic movements.The media. citizens see politics as usual: continuing disputes. Unlike Arabs. But analogies are made not with the fetneh. and Iran’s youth are.com/printstory. meanwhile. evidently. Both before and after the contested 2009 election. is far closer to the truth. Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. those hopes will most likely be dashed.S. which swept the shah off the Peacock Throne and into ignominious exile.S. Arab countries have also had dictators who were supported. the extent of support that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did have — which even green movement leaders estimated to be in the millions. far greater. they are made with the Islamic Revolution of 1979. had focused on protesters and demonstrators in 2009 and on the government’s heavy crackdown. The West’s view that Iran has an overwhelmingly unpopular dictatorship and that the green movement sought to overthrow the political system is fundamentally wrong. Iran has been more politically analogous to the red state. But. is that the government has been successful in portraying itself — at least to moderate supporters — as being aligned with Western interests. Support for the supreme leader and the Islamic system was. Their struggle since the fall of the shah for representative government has not depended on the removal of one man or one family. the most pro-American — but not pro-U.” Certainly there may be Iranians who are envious of the ease with which the Arabs dispatched their leader. challenges and debate among the three branches of government — with Ahmadinejad not always coming out on top. as the 2009 post-election crisis is described. hegemony as much as they are against dictatorship. much like Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak. was a lifetime dictator closely allied with Washington. foreign policy — in the region. better yet. It largely ignored. Iran natunest. Rather. interests. there is not enough support against Iranian leadership. indeed. I was in Tehran when the Tunisian president fled his country and after the Hezbollah-engineered collapse of the Lebanese government.
***A2: Muslim Brotherhood Bad*** .Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. Not while the whole country.com 134/148 Thursday File about through street protests — which is why no one calls for them anymore. unlike in the Arab states. isn’t united in hatred of its leaders.
C. they don’t want power and the military would NEVER allow it. “I don’t think the military are going to let the Muslim Brotherhood take over and the Muslim Brotherhood know that and they’re keeping their heads down. “Public Praise.html) CJC Other U. an opposition group accused of terrorist ties. a former ambassador to Israel who is vice president for foreign policy at the nonprofit Brookings Institution in Washington. 2011. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”.” Martin Indyk.. lawmakers have raised concerns that the Muslim Brotherhood.bloomberg.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – No I/L: Muslim Brotherhood Muslim Brotherhood will not rise to control the government. http://www. .Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 135/148 Cross-X. and saying basically they don’t want to take over. might seize control of the country.S. D. reporter for Bloomberg News. Feb 13. said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” yesterday.
Associated Press reporters.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – Brotherhood Won’t Run No Internal link – Muslim Brotherhood will not run for election. 14." he said. They are eager to have a political party.com/2011/02/14/1981307/egypts-us-envoy-says-mubarakmay. Essam el-Arian. in my opinion we need a national consensus. "The Muslim Brotherhood group believes in the freedom of the formation of political parties.html#storylink=mirelated) CJC The Brotherhood announced Tuesday that it would form a party once promised freer laws are in place. 2011. acknowledging that such a move would be too controversial. . Feb. "We are not going to have a candidate for the upcoming presidential elections. its time for unity. “Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood plans political party”.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 136/148 Cross-X." spokesman Mohammed Mursi said in a statement on the Brotherhood website. But he said the Brotherhood's top leadership had decided on the creation of a party. Sun News – 2/14 (LEE KEATH and HAMZA HENDAWI . Its time for solidarity. a prominent Brotherhood figures. http://www. This guts their extremist internal which are critical to their impact story. said the movement would not run any candidate for upcoming presidential elections.thesunnews.
egypt/index. Their relationship vis-à-vis the U. That isn't a bad thing. the alternative is worse." What we are seeing is the Arab world corollary: No Islamist representation. But after being banned in 1954. but trust me.us. but to reform Egyptian politics by cleaning up corruption and releasing political prisoners." The Muslim Brotherhood is not a threat to US interests. Nor is it clear they'd install an Iran-style theocracy. though their role and influence remain unclear. policy still feels . But Washington cannot wish away their widespread support among Egypt's religious classes. The key question is whether the Brotherhood will continue to exercise self-restraint when the Mubarak regime falls. the movement drifted from the fiery rhetoric of past enlistees such as al-Qaeda deputy Ayman al-Zawahri— or even the anti-American theologian Sayyid Qutb — to make room for liberal values. its orientation was hardly pro-democratic. The political scientist Barrington Moore once famously posited: "No bourgeoisie. no democracy.htm) CJC The United States has played a role of wait-and-see as protests have raged across Tunisia and Egypt. As a result. We have seen this in spades since 9/11. Activism and Political Change in Egypt. we may not be perfect. for a democratic coalition to come to power in Egypt it has to make political room for religious groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood. can best be summed up: Hey." Even though its members support sharia law. an associate professor of political science at Emory University and notes that the Brotherhood is an umbrella organization that encompasses different views and trends.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – A2: Muslim Brotherhood Bad Muslim Brotherhood does not represent a threat to transition to radical Islam in Egypt. He is also a member of USA TODAY's Board of Contributors. 'Islamist' fears overblown”.S.cnn. no democracy. The Atlantic's Robert Kaplan describes the group as a "community self-help organization. but it is no longer the defiant anti-system movement it was in the past.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS %3A+Politics%29) CJC Rosefsky Wickham. http://www. any grassroots reform coalition in Egypt must win the Brotherhood's support. Indeed. Carrie author of "Mobilizing Islam: Religion. “In Egypt.com/news/opinion/forum/2011-02-01-column01_ST2_N. 2011. when presidents from Pakistan's Pervez Musharraf to Egypt's Mubarak played up the threat of radical Islamists at home to secure more goodies from Washington — namely billions of dollars worth of aid and military hardware — and retain power. U. Beehner – 2/1 (Lionel Beehner is a fellow with the Truman National Security Project and Ph. The threat posed by Islamists seizing power is more often than not a crutch used by autocrats to safeguard their positions. Their turns are overblown rhetoric without specific facts about the Muslim Brotherhood.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 137/148 Cross-X. when the group was founded in a smoky coffeehouse in 1920s Cairo. It is more popular than Egypt's liberal opposition. “The Sweep: The risk of democracy in the Middle East”. 2/1/2011. candidate in political science at Yale University. some foreign policy observers are urging caution in calling for regime change or immediate elections. And some Muslim Brothers have participated in the recent protests. True. Mohamed ElBaradei.D. secure foreign aid and snap up White House invitations. the group does have a presence among the masses. The Brotherhood also suffers from an image problem. an opposition candidate for president. And the bulk of its membership comprises moderates committed to peaceful relations with Egypt's neighbors. Islamic role is essential But let's face it.usatoday. http://www. Rosefsky believes it will.com/2011/POLITICS/02/02/sweep. as the country's largest opposition movement. as they have with Hamas in Palestine or Hezbollah in Lebanon. their primary aim is not to roll back women's rights or install an Islamic caliphate (much less a Taliban-style haven for terrorists). These fears are overblown. Indeed. CNN Staff. Though technically illegal. CNN – 2/2 (Elise Labott and Josh Levs. Other experts believe the Brotherhood will grab power if given the chance. and nonMuslims. given its offshoots with ties to terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda and its alleged role in the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in 1981. has won the Brotherhood's support.S. arguing that the Brotherhood is less interested in seizing power and calling the shots than it is in spreading its message and influencing policy. February 2. including Israel. There is concern that a party inhospitable to American interests — namely the Muslim Brotherhood — could fill a power vacuum were President Hosni Mubarak to be tossed from office like Tunisia's Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.
Indeed. itself has acknowledged in practice.S. meanwhile. Moderate Islam is an essential part of democracy in the Middle East —Washington needs to start reading its own memos. If the Brotherhood wins in a landslide. democratic — Egypt. There are no colorful or anti-American religious clerics like Ayatollah Khomeini waiting in the wings. "Whether the Brotherhood would in fact try to impose such a (theocratic) regime is unknown. that could be preferable to propping up an unpopular dictator.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 138/148 Cross-X. Post-9/11 paranoia about radical Islam has made too many Americans allergic to the "I" word in political movements — an untenable position in the Middle East as the U. they would not have thrown their support behind ElBaradei. but if the Brothers were hell-bent on installing an Iranian- style theocracy. "Unfortunately. The question is not whether the Muslim Brotherhood will seek to join ElBaradei's coalition. The United States. whether now or later this year." Maybe. yes." President Obama pledged in his June 2009 speech in Cairo. And he must. . just as we tend to oversentimentalize the secular opposition candidates as saints.com Thursday File hamstrung from the memories of Iran in 1979. a secular technocrat. so too will the Muslim Brotherhood be part of a future — and. the only way to find out would be to let them take over. Egypt is not post-Shah Iran. Let us not forget that America's two most recent nation-building efforts have resulted in the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and an Iraqi constitution that defines the country as an Islamic Democratic Republic. We cannot avoid free elections because of the threat of Islamist parties." Max Boot of the Council on Foreign Relations wrote recently. "This cycle of suspicion and discord must end. should back elections there. This isn't Iran Also. but whether he will accept them. Just as the Taliban will be included in whatever future government of Afghanistan finally sticks. so too do we demonize parties with a religious bent.
Gamal Abdel Nasser and Anwar elSadat all faced the same problem that Hisham Kaseem. however.”. who would take this in a different direction.nytimes. said of Egypt on Monday. The Brotherhood realized that in addition to being late. And its failure to support the initial uprising in Cairo on Jan. February 2. blasted the Brotherhood’s willingness to participate in parliamentary elections and reject nuclear arms. “If people met in a cafe and talked about things the regime didn’t like. The wealthier businessmen who often sponsor them tend to shun the Brotherhood. King Farouk. In Egypt today. the former diplomat and Nobel Prize winner.” People in the West frequently conflate the Brotherhood and Al Qaeda. even many Egyptians suspect that they share a common end that is alien to democracy. But here’s the real deal. Americans and Europeans have repeatedly expressed fears of the Muslim Brotherhood. Atran – 2/2 (Scott Atran. a former member of the Brotherhood’s Guidance Council. the House speaker. and few Islamic slogans or chants were heard. Moreover. ElBaradei strode into Tahrir Square. “You also have others. the group has only six clinics in Cairo. an anthropologist at France’s National Center for Scientific Research. “You forget about the rule of Shariah. Mubarak.” This kind of flip-flopping makes many Egyptians scoff. But it is because democracies tolerate disparate political groups that they generally don’t have civil wars. expressed hope that Hosni Mubarak would stay on as president of Egypt while instituting reforms to prevent the Muslim Brotherhood and other extremists from grabbing power. are problematic for American interests. Kaseem told me.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss) CJC AS Egyptians clash over the future of their government. You “falsely affiliated with Islam. Only a small minority of the protesters in Tahrir Square joined its members in prayers there (estimates range from 5 percent to 10 percent). “In this uprising the Brotherhood is almost invisible. or wars with other democracies. so the Brotherhood survived. it might be backing the wrong horse. notably its stance against Israel. the Brotherhood counts perhaps some 100. And although their means are very different.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 139/148 Cross-X. On Tuesday. “Israel must know that it is not welcome by the people in this region. at least as many Egyptians see it. “It’s too early to even discuss whether ElBaradei should lead a transitional government or whether we will join him.” Tony Blair. In January 2006. today it forswears violence in political struggle. “You don’t just have a government and a movement for democracy. Brotherhood and the (Un)making of Terrorists. welcome the Crusaders’ bases in your countries and acknowledge the existence of the Jews who are fully armed with nuclear weapons. Yet in 83 years it has botched every opportunity. When I asked Dr. And according to Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh. Dr. he would just shut down the cafe and arrest us. Essam el-Erian. told Al Jazeera. Nonetheless. the Brotherhood will probably have representatives in any freely elected government. It might be able to recover lost leverage by showing its organizational tenacity in resisting the attempts to repress the demonstrators. Erian told me. described playing out under Mr. Although originally the Brotherhood was organized into paramilitary cells. Mr. the former leader of Egypt’s Islamic Jihad and Al Qaeda’s leading strategist.” Mr. And because the Brotherhood itself is not monolithic — it has many factions — it could well . Kaseem said. the University of Michigan and John Jay College. Ever since its founding in 1928 as a rival to Western-inspired nationalist movements that had failed to free Egypt from foreign powers. “Egypt’s Bumbling Brotherhood”. the Brotherhood’s importance will rapidly fade.” Dr.com/2011/02/03/opinion/03atran. 25 has made it marginal to the spirit of revolt now spreading through the Arab world. Obviously the Brotherhood wants power and its positions. Many of the other clinics are Islamic in orientation simply because most Egyptians are Islamic. 11 to “brainwash” people into thinking of all Muslim activists as terrorists. But the very poor in Egypt are not very politically active. This has made it a target of Al Qaeda’s venom. he retorted that the United States and Mr. many ignored him and few rallied to his side despite the enormous publicity he was receiving in the Western press.” The previous day.” If Egyptians are given political breathing space. “but not in America and Europe. manifests little support for the Brotherhood. Their evidence is not supported by facts on the ground in Egypt and the military will check back and ensure a peaceful transition. the Brotherhood did not arrive at this historical moment with the advantage of wide public favor. Such support as it does have among Egyptians — an often cited figure is 20 percent to 30 percent — is less a matter of true attachment than an accident of circumstance: the many decades of suppression of secular opposition groups that might have countered it. adding that “the street” knew the truth. the Muslim Brotherhood may have gained an opportunity. Erian said. “Political groups support ElBaradei to negotiate with the regime.000 adherents out of a population of over 80 million. http://www.” Mr. from which you are banned to possess. 2011. Ayman al-Zawahri. notably the Muslim Brotherhood. John Boehner.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – A2: Muslim Brotherhood Takeover Muslim Brotherhood does not have the ability to take control. Erian about this. The British. Mubarak had conspired after Sept.” Many people outside Egypt believe that the Brotherhood gains political influence by providing health clinics and charity for the poor. Dr. When the army allowed hundreds of Mubarak supporters and plainclothes policemen through barricades on Wednesday to muscle out protesters. The street. A Brotherhood spokesman. if only to protect their businesses from government disapproval. a newspaper editor and human rights activist. the former British prime minister.” he said in vilifying the group. is the author of “Talking to the Enemy: Faith. which fear them as the bogeyman. “But you can’t close mosques.” But when Mr. This error was compounded when the Brotherhood threw in its lot with Mohamed ElBaradei. a city of 18 million. Kaseem said. the Muslim Brotherhood has tried to revive Islamic power.
***A2: Suez Canal*** . Though in one sense it happened overnight. the United States must now publicly hold Mr.” Mr. What we are seeing in Egypt is a revolt led by digitally informed young people and joined by families from all rungs of society. a representative Parliament. independent of the Brotherhood or any old guard opposition. But there is little reason for the United States to fear a takeover by the Muslim Brotherhood. “If you try to push democracy tomorrow we’ll end up like Mauritania or Sudan. “Let the U. the problems of violent extremism and waves of emigration that America and Europe most fear from this unhappy region could well fade as its disaffected youth at last find hope at home.com 140/148 Thursday File succumb to internal division if there really were a political opening for other groups in Egypt.” If America’s already teetering standing among Egyptians and across the Arab and Muslim world is not to topple altogether.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. Egyptians are a pretty savvy lot. Even a military leader with an I.S. “They are only bungling things with calls for immediate reforms and against the Brotherhood.A. the intelligence chief and new vice president. will be acceptable to Egyptians if the army gets rid of Mr.Q. We are handling this beautifully.” both of which in recent decades have had coups on the heels of democratic elections. of 30 wouldn’t go down the same path as Mubarak because he would understand that the people of Egypt who are out in the streets are no longer apathetic. A military in control behind the scenes — for a while — is probably the best hope for a peaceful transition. Mubarak now — and over the next decade real democratic reforms will be instituted. If Egypt is allowed to find its own way. an open press. The Brotherhood leadership talks of a year or two of transition. their interests are mostly secular. Kaseem said. Kaseem. although that may reflect a vain hope of using that time to broaden its popular support enough to reach a controlling plurality.” urged Mr. The more common assessment even among democracy advocates is that the military will retain control — Omar Suleiman. they are connected and they will get power in the end. many of its young proponents have long been working behind the scenes. stay away. “Egypt is missing instruments essential to any functioning democracy and these must be established in the transition period — an independent judiciary. who insisted that he is pro-American and abhors the Brotherhood. Hardly anyone I talked to believes that democracy can be established overnight. Mubarak responsible for the violence and privately inform the Egyptian Army that it cannot support any institution that is complicit. as it so promisingly began to do over the past week.
reuters.S. "When you look at the fiscal impact of that (closing the canal) on whoever is in a position of authority in Egypt. "There's no reason right now for any shift in military forces or anything like that. Central Command said on Tuesday. the head of U. Mattis said the United States had no plans to re-order its military forces in the region because of instability in North Africa.S." he said. militarily" to any closure of the Suez Canal although such an event seems inconceivable. . James Mattis said. http://www. economically. speaking at a London event hosted by the Policy Exchange think tank. 2011.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 141/148 Cross-X." he said. I just can't imagine the motive to shut that down. Reuters – 2/1 (Staff. “U. but that to me is hypothetical and I would defer to the political leaders. He had been asked if the United States would be prepared to act if there were any disruptions to the key shipping channel because of instability in Egypt.com/article/2011/02/01/us-egypt-usa-mattis-idUSTRE71086W20110201? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29)CJC The United States would respond "diplomatically." Gen. economically." he said. whatever. These issues do not call for a military solution right now. I've not requested or directed anything like that. I've not received any orders. "Were it to happen obviously we would have to deal with it (Reuters) diplomatically. militarily. sees Suez Canal closure as inconceivable”. "The short answer is no.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – US Will Keep Suez Canal Open US is prepared to intervene to keep the Suez Canal open. Feb 1.
POLITICO – 2/1 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico and Mike Allen is the chief political correspondent for Politico and Laura Rozen is a reporter at POLITICO. February 1.” said former State Department and Defense Department official Anthony Cordesman. however. some mitigating factors. “Whoever is governing is going to need money. and they are going to need it in a hurry.com/printstory.H. which guards the canal — badly needs the revenue it generates. a Washington think tank.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – A2: Oil Cut-Off No Impact and No Risk that Oil gets cut off regardless who is in control in Egypt. The canal and pipeline together control only about 3 percent of the world’s crude oil supply.cfm?uuid=DE7516BA-D472-D8EDD73BCE853D37CED6) CJC There are. http://dyn. “There’s no leverage in cutting off a key earner. a Middle East expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.politico. “Egypt: Worst scenarios for W. And Egypt — especially the army. They don’t need a big spike in gas prices to go along with a 20 percent hike in food prices.”.” . 2011.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 142/148 Cross-X.
which currently runs at reduced capacity.000 barrels of oil per day from Egypt to other parts of the world. would come if protests in Yemen affected oil transport through the nearby Strait of Bab el-Mandab. reserves from International Energy Agency countries could cover any losses. Book said. “Egypt's unrest revives debate about U. oil dependency”.” Book said. Restuccia – 1/31 (Andrew Restuccia.com/blogs/e2-wire/677e2-wire/141329-protests-in-egypt-spur-talk-of-oil-prices-drilling) CJC A leading energy analyst said Monday that a short-term shutdown of the Suez Canal would likely not result in major problems. oil flowing northbound could be diverted to Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude oil pipeline. http://thehill. said the biggest concern is how unrest in Egypt might affect the transport of oil.” Book said.” ***A2: Aid Cuts*** . Kevin Book. However. If the Suez Canal. southbound flows would still be blocked. but manageable. “turning a 15-hour trip into a 600-hour trip. If the Suez Canal closure lasted too long. Book said. it is only if there is a spill over in the Middle East. 01/31/11. Energy and Environmental Reporter for The Hill. which carries about 600. is whether countries like Iran and Venezuela “seize upon tight global oil system capacity to air grievances or issue proclamations.2 million barrels of oil per day to other countries. “In the event of a shutdown. Despite the length in transit. Book said the result would be “nontrivial. an analyst at ClearView Energy Partners. But the analyst warned that widespread protests across the Middle East that shut down key oil supply routes could pose a threat.” The real problems. were to be shut down for a short time. which carries 3.S. oil would have to be rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope at the tip of Africa. however.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 143/148 Cross-X.com Thursday File A2: Suez Canal Shut Down = No Impact There is no impact to shutting down the Suez Canal. The other issue of concern.
“Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”.reuters. House . not enough time to cut it from the budget. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell. leaving scant time for big policy changes. 2011. http://www. The bill should be on the House floor by the week of February 14.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Republican aides doubt there will be any major cuts in military aid to Egypt in the House version of an upcoming bill to fund the government from March through September 30." said Jon Alterman. a House aide said.reuters.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – No Aid Cuts Aid will not get cut anytime soon." Alterman said.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC "I have a hard time seeing the politics come together in order to have a bipartisan and bicameral agreement on cutting aid to Egypt soon. Staff. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 144/148 Cross-X. 2011. "I don't think Americans have a clear view yet (of events in Egypt) and therefore it's hard for Congress to have a clear view. director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Feb 2. Staff. There will be no cuts. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell. Feb 2. http://www.
-designated terror group that rules Gaza." he said. ***A2: Israel*** ***Offense*** . referring to the U.S. Reporter at USA TODAY. Most agree that clamped down on arms to Hamas and opposed Hezbollah.usatoday. For years. Change Egyptian policy toward Israel will change inevitably. Mubarak The Brotherhood wants to put Egypt's peace treaty with Israel up to a referendum.com/news/world/2011-02-14-1Aegypt14_CV_N. And if the government decides to open border crossings between Egypt and the Gaza Strip. http://www. Even liberals say they will pay more attention to the Palestinians than Mubarak did.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 145/148 Cross-X.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt Policy -> Israel Inev. Abdel Fattah said. "we will support Hamas like others will. 2/14/2011. Dorell – 2/14 (Oren Dorell.htm) CJC Egypt's policy toward Israel will change no matter who gains power. “Ideology shadows fight to rule the new Egypt”.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 146/148 Cross-X. 2011.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – Turn: Peace Process The failure of the Egypt-Israel Peace Accords would spark Israel-Palestinian deal.com/printstory. Gregg. for one.”.cfm?uuid=DE7516BA-D472-D8EDD73BCE853D37CED6) CJC the looming shift away from the Camp David Accords could be a spur to peace negotiators. http://dyn. POLITICO – 2/1 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico and Mike Allen is the chief political correspondent for Politico and Laura Rozen is a reporter at POLITICO. thinks . “This makes it clear that Israel and Palestine have to come to a significant peace agreement — sooner rather than later because there is going to be tremendous instability in Egypt for the foreseeable future. February 1. “Egypt: Worst scenarios for W.H.” he said.politico.
polls of Arabs revealed their sense that the Middle East is even less democratic than before. foreign aid. where there is obvious public opposition to the clerical regime. Washington has been debating what the White House should or should not say. To be sure. anger with the United States on foreign policy issues — particularly Iraq and the Arab-Israeli conflict — and deep suspicion of U. It is partly about that.S.”. Events in Egypt are mostly out of our control. When the Bush administration used the Iraq War as a vehicle to spread democratic change in the Middle East. voice on behalf of regime change in Cairo.com/printstory. including those in places supporting an Egyptian revolution. The United States. This includes places like Iran. national discourse that the anger with the United States is only about its support for authoritarian governments in the region.S. Resolving Washington’s dilemma in its relationship with authoritarian rulers in the region will not be addressed by White House speeches or even the elimination of U. intentions put the genuine democracy advocates in the region on the defensive. Whether President Barack Obama publicly calls for President Hosni Mubarak to resign will very likely have little effect on Arab and Egyptian public opinion. who are prepared to risk their lives for them. In any case. Telhami – 1/31 ( Shibley Telhami is Anwar Sadat professor for peace and development at the University of Maryland and a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. many democracy advocates want to see a more forceful U.S. as indicated by the contestation over the 2009 presidential election.com Thursday File Aff – Withdraw = More Democratic Reforms Large military foot print in the middle-east drives repression and will spark continued violent backlash against oppressive regimes. Even in Iran. Washington is likely to be seen as attempting to control events — moving to pre-empt the public will and engineering an outcome to its liking. January 31. But if there is any lesson to be learned from Tunisia.cfm? uuid=D88A5DBE-DB47-2BCB-9B6BD331D950FDD0) CJC Ever since Egypt’s public demonstrations calling for regime change began. does take a forceful position. is that the revolt was not viewed as directly related to the West. it will continue to prefer cooperative regimes over a public will that goes against it. Even as the United States was waging a war partly in the name of democracy. we must have no illusion about how it will be spun by many Arabs. But let’s have no illusion about the effect of what we say on the outcome in Egypt — or throughout the Arab world. the vast majority of the Arab public passionately opposed it. The plan moves away from a large military footprint in the middle east allowing for more democratic reforms.S. If and when the U. But it’s deeper and more complex — as we have seen in the attitudes of the Iraqi people. The United States support of repressive regimes because they are willing to support US policy means more oppression of people to keep them quiet. as if American words in the middle of an upheaval that is not our doing can affect the outcome in Egypt and turn the tide of Arab public opinion in favor of the United States. one has to wonder whether these events could have taken place even earlier had there not been the diversion of the Iraq War — and whether these upheavals might have swept away Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship without shots being fired from the outside. foreign policy.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 147/148 Cross-X. One reason the Tunisian revolution succeeded in toppling the president without major ramifications for the U. America’s inability to engineer political outcomes in the region — or even predict them — has been demonstrated in events ranging from the outcome of the Iraq War itself to contests for power in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories. and even many .politico. like the Al Jazeera network.S. “Upheaval in Egypt: Not about the U. for its own sake.S. The Iraq War was most telling. every year since the Iraq War began. But others.S.S. is fighting wars in the Middle East and is invested in the outcome of the ArabIsraeli conflict. As we witness the remarkable and inspiring events in both Tunisia and Egypt. There is a sense in U. must side with people standing for self-determination and freedom. and from the U. it is that these historic and indigenous events in Egypt must not become about the United States.S. http://dyn. It’s not up to the United States to determine who the next president of Egypt will be. 2011. one wonders whether the Iranian people might succeed if the regime were robbed of its ability to point fingers at the West. It will quite likely be mocked by Hassan Nasrallah of Hezbollah — just as he mocked France for how quickly it abandoned its client after Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali’s departure from Tunisia. The outcome has been that. policy in the region in the past few years. As long as the United States has a heavy military footprint in the region. are already asking whether the Egyptian upheaval was instigated by Washington — with some “evidence” presented. many of whom were happy to get Washington’s support to throw off their dictator but were still unhappy with U.
Given that repression now appears to be failing. reacted in the way they knew best: They became even more repressive. Today.S. security service to security service. But we insisted and we rewarded and we threatened — and got our way with most. These agencies are the anchors of repression in the region.S. regardless of who rules at the top. priorities. this is a moment for a bigger assessment of U. . intelligence to intelligence. driven by strategic U.com 148/148 Thursday File governments counseled against it — largely for fear of public opposition. which made them even more insecure. our closest institutional relationships in the Arab world. The net result was that those governments that went against the will of the overwhelming majority. are military to military. policy in the region — beyond what happens in Egypt.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.