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Cross-X.com Thursday File
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley..................................................................................................................1 ***Notes***.....................................................................................................................................5 ***1NC Shell***...............................................................................................................................6 *****Uniqueness*****..............................................................................................10 *****Uniqueness*****....................................................................................................................10 UQ Ext – A2: Dip Cap Low..............................................................................................................11 UQ Ext – A2: Military Control = N/U...............................................................................................12 UQ Ext – Focused Diplomacy.........................................................................................................13 Diplomacy Focus Key....................................................................................................................15 UQ Ext – Military Diplomacy..........................................................................................................16 UQ Ext – US Has Influence Over Military.......................................................................................18 UQ Ext – Timeframe – Next Few Months Key.................................................................................19 UQ Ext – Dip. K2 Election Timing...................................................................................................20 *****Links*****.......................................................................................................20 *****Links*****..............................................................................................................................20 A2: Link Turns: Timing – (A Must Read).........................................................................................21 2NC Link Magnifier - Focus............................................................................................................22 2NC Link Magnifier – Perception....................................................................................................23 2NC Aid Link Magnifier..................................................................................................................24 Ext – Aid Link: A2 Aid Cuts Now.....................................................................................................26 Ext – Aid Link: Econ Spark Instability.............................................................................................27 2NC Links – Plan Kills Coercive Diplomacy ..................................................................................28 Link – General...............................................................................................................................30 Link – Military Change...................................................................................................................35 Link – Afghanistan ........................................................................................................................36 Links – Asia....................................................................................................................................39 Link – Japan...................................................................................................................................41 Link – South Korea.........................................................................................................................42 Link – Iraq .....................................................................................................................................43 Link – TNWs ..................................................................................................................................48 Link – Turkey.................................................................................................................................51 *****Internal Links*****..........................................................................................51 *****Internal Links*****.................................................................................................................51 2NC Ext - Dip Cap Finite – Egypt...................................................................................................52 2NC Ext – Dip Cap Finite – Middle East..........................................................................................53 2NC Ext – Dip Cap Finite...............................................................................................................54 2NC Ext – Diplomatic Capital Key – Plan Cost................................................................................56 Military K2 Secular Transition........................................................................................................57 A2: Military Not Relinquish Power.................................................................................................59 Dip. K2 Transition – Military...........................................................................................................60 Sustained Diplomacy Checks Extremist Rise.................................................................................62 Dip Cap Checks Spillover..............................................................................................................63 A2: No Influence............................................................................................................................64 *****Impact Scenarios*****.....................................................................................64 *****Impact Scenarios*****...........................................................................................................64 ***Suez Canal Shell***............................................................................................64 ***Suez Canal Shell***..................................................................................................................64
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.com 2/148 Thursday File Close Suez Canal = Price Shocks..................................................................................................66 Egypt K2 Oil Markets.....................................................................................................................67 Egypt – Military K2 Suez Canal......................................................................................................68 Impact Magnifier: Saudi Arabia.....................................................................................................69 ***Leadership Shell***..................................................................................................................70 Ext - Leadership............................................................................................................................74 ***Terrorism Shell***..............................................................................................74 ***Terrorism Shell***....................................................................................................................74 Egypt Intel = Best.........................................................................................................................76 Egypt – Counterterrorism..............................................................................................................77 Yemen Spillover............................................................................................................................78 Spillover -> Yemen = Terrorism....................................................................................................79 ***Instability Shell***.............................................................................................79 ***Instability Shell***....................................................................................................................79 Ext – Instability..............................................................................................................................81 ME Diplomacy – Bahrain & Yemen................................................................................................82 Yemen Counter Terrorism.............................................................................................................83 ***Bahrain Shell***.................................................................................................83 ***Bahrain Shell***........................................................................................................................83 Bahrain – 5th Fleet........................................................................................................................87 Bahrain Spillover -> Gulf Oil States...............................................................................................88 Egypt -> Bahrain...........................................................................................................................89 ***Israel Relations Shell***.....................................................................................89 ***Israel Relations Shell***............................................................................................................89 Israel Brink....................................................................................................................................92 A2: Brotherhood Not A Threat.......................................................................................................93 ***Muslim Brotherhood***......................................................................................93 ***Muslim Brotherhood***.............................................................................................................93 Muslim Brotherhood Pushing For Control .....................................................................................94 A2: Muslim Brotherhood Not Win Enough Seats............................................................................95 Egypt – Influence K2 Avoid Islam Rise...........................................................................................96 Brotherhood = Price Spikes...........................................................................................................98 Brotherhood = Econ Collapse........................................................................................................99 Brotherhood = ME Instability......................................................................................................100 Muslim Brother Hood Pushing For Power.....................................................................................101 Brotherhood = No MEPP..............................................................................................................102 Transition K2 Check Muslim Brotherhood....................................................................................103 A2: Muslim Brotherhood Not Threat............................................................................................104 ***Foreign Aid***.................................................................................................104 ***Foreign Aid***.........................................................................................................................104 Congress Cut Aid.........................................................................................................................105 Aid: Peaceful Transition K2 Prevent Cut......................................................................................106 Aid K2 Leverage..........................................................................................................................107 Aid K2 Arms Sales.......................................................................................................................108 Aid Cut Quickly............................................................................................................................109 Egypt – A2: No Aid Cut – Budget.................................................................................................110 Egypt – Aid On Table...................................................................................................................111
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.com 3/148 Thursday File ***Iran***............................................................................................................111 ***Iran***....................................................................................................................................111 Diplomacy = Iran Transition........................................................................................................112 ***** Affirmative Answers*****..............................................................................113 ***** Affirmative Answers*****...................................................................................................113 ***2AC F/L***..............................................................................................................................114 ***Uniqueness Ans.***..........................................................................................117 ***Uniqueness Ans.***................................................................................................................117 Aff – Egypt – N/U: Dip Cap Low....................................................................................................118 ***Link Level***...................................................................................................118 ***Link Level***...........................................................................................................................118 Iraq Aff – Link Turn......................................................................................................................119 Afghanistan Aff – Link Turn ........................................................................................................120 Iraq Aff – Link Turn......................................................................................................................122 Japan Aff – Link Turn...................................................................................................................123 Link – Link Turn – South Korea K Aff............................................................................................124 ***Internal Answers***.........................................................................................124 ***Internal Answers***................................................................................................................124 Aff – Egypt: No Influence.............................................................................................................125 Aff – Egypt: Aid =/= Influence.....................................................................................................126 Aff – Egypt – No Influence...........................................................................................................127 Aff – Egypt – No Influence: Military..............................................................................................129 ***Impact Ans.***.................................................................................................129 ***Impact Ans.***........................................................................................................................129 ***A2: Counterterrorism***...................................................................................129 ***A2: Counterterrorism***.........................................................................................................129 A2: Counterterrorism Impacts.....................................................................................................130 ***A2: Spillover/Instability***................................................................................130 ***A2: Spillover/Instability***......................................................................................................130 Aff – No Egypt Spillover...............................................................................................................131 ***A2: Iran Reform***...........................................................................................132 ***A2: Iran Reform***..................................................................................................................132 Aff – No Iran Reform....................................................................................................................133 ***A2: Muslim Brotherhood Bad***........................................................................134 ***A2: Muslim Brotherhood Bad***.............................................................................................134 Aff – Egypt – No I/L: Muslim Brotherhood....................................................................................135 Aff – Egypt – Brotherhood Won’t Run..........................................................................................136 Aff – Egypt – A2: Muslim Brotherhood Bad..................................................................................137 Aff – Egypt – A2: Muslim Brotherhood Takeover..........................................................................139 ***A2: Suez Canal***............................................................................................140 ***A2: Suez Canal***...................................................................................................................140 Aff – Egypt – US Will Keep Suez Canal Open...............................................................................141 Aff – Egypt – A2: Oil Cut-Off.........................................................................................................142 A2: Suez Canal Shut Down = No Impact.....................................................................................143
.................................................145 Aff – Egypt – Turn: Peace Process..............................................................................144 Aff – Egypt Policy -> Israel Inev.....................................145 ***A2: Israel***............................................................143 Aff – Egypt – No Aid Cuts..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X......147 ......................................................................................................................................................................................................145 ***Offense***.146 Aff – Withdraw = More Democratic Reforms....................................................................................143 ***A2: Aid Cuts***........................................... Change...........145 ***Offense***...........................................145 ***A2: Israel***..............................com 4/148 Thursday File ***A2: Aid Cuts***.............................................................................................................................
com Thursday File ***Notes*** Why you should choose to run Egypt. US diplomatic response in the Middle East as a result of the Egypt Crisis. and Impacts. D.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 5/148 Cross-X. Carriers in the Gulf. The internal link evidence about our focus on Egypt is fantastic right now. Awesome Timeframes. you can branch out because the US is forced to deal with all of the Middle East turmoil at once as a result of Egypt allowing you to diversify and magnify your impacts. All of these impacts feed from one source. Sometimes it is just good to be on the side of truth in the world. You are not limited to Egypt after the 1NC. B. All three happen very quickly. . Nothing in the Status Quo or Affirmative can top the timeframe of the Link. All of the Uniqueness evidence and Internals take into account the fact that Mubarak has left power and is only talking in terms of US diplomatic response to the transition to elections. Impact Scenarios: All of your favorites are right there at your finger-tips from the general Econ impacts from Oil Price Shocks to hyper-specific scenarios about U. Internal Link. this argument puts you there. A. C.S.
2011. Diplomacy is tentative requiring focused and persistent efforts to maintain diplomatic contact.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss %2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS%3A+Politics%29) CJC The Obama administration launched into diplomatic outreach throughout the Middle East Saturday.pdf] MGM The consequences of hard-power atrophy will be a direct deterioration of America’s diplomatic clout.com Thursday File ***1NC Shell*** A. 3 official at the State Department. “U. spokesman Geoff Morrell said.S. and will visit Jordan as well. and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is expected to call leaders in the region this weekend. Burns. And you can imagine.d.mubarak/index. CNN Reporters. Clinton also is dispatching Under Secretary William Burns to Jordan to discuss "the historic events in Egypt as well as a range of other regional and bilateral issues. U.. "They will have to clarify who is now the head of the government. they don't want to sit down with an American right now when they've got their whole world kind of collapsing on them as we speak. B. seeks diplomatic clarity in Mideast”. (Insert Specific Link or read this generic evidence) Decreasing military deployments kills diplomatic influence." the congressman said." one senior State Department official said.com/2011/POLITICS/02/12/us. Ph.S. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.cnn. it is still unclear who is handling diplomatic issues. Recently. 6-1. where America’s ability to hedge against the growing ambitions of a rising China is being called into question by some of our key Asian allies. previously served as an ambassador to Jordan. The discussion.S. "Whomever the Egyptians chose.S. we can have a relationship and deal with that person. on Saturday. The congressman briefed reporters Friday afternoon on the condition they not use his name. While the U. CNN – 2/12 (Elise Labott and Barbara Starr. Top State Department officials are contacting every Arab foreign minister. Holmes. "It's been very difficult to get information through normal diplomatic channels given the rapid changes. Current efforts will succeed. A big unanswered question is the future of Vice President Omar Suleiman. Field Marshal Mohammed Hussein Tantawi. U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 6/148 Cross-X. is headed to Israel on a scheduled visit. the official said. and Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Mullen had some contact with their military counterparts. Adm. US diplomacy has been launched throughout the Middle East to deal with the transition of power to the military and future transition to democracy. senior officials said." He spoke anonymously Washington (CNN) -due to the sensitivity of the ongoing diplomacy. This is already on display in the western Pacific Ocean. U. said a Republican congressman familiar with the administration's efforts.S.S.com/thf_media/2009/pdf/sr0052. Gates' sixth phone conversation with the Egyptian Defense Minister since the situation in Egypt began. Gates spoke with Egypt's defense minister." But the official added. February 12. is the first high-level contact between the two governments since President Hosni Mubarak resigned. http://s3. “Sustaining American Leadership with Military Power”. military primacy and the implications that this decline would have for Australian security and stability in the Asia–Pacific. Diplomacy between the United States and Egypt been effectively cut off. The ability of the United States to reassure .amazonaws. and Egyptian officials said they expected the two sides to resume broader and more regular consultations this weekend. Michael Mullen. the No. even as it tries to determine the composition of the Egyptian military council and the line of authority in the future Egyptian government. State Department officials acknowledged it has been hard to reach members of the new Egyptian government during the last 48 hours. "We have to figure out the pecking order. Australia released a defense White Paper that is concerned primarily with the potential decline of U. officials said. http://www." a State Department statement said. is already familiar with the players of the council. Ambassador to Egypt Margaret Scobey has had some contact with the foreign ministry. These developments are anything but reassuring. 2009 [Kim. VP for Foreign and Defense Policy Studies and Director of the David Institute for International Studies at the Heritage Foundation.
82. will herald a new age in a troubled region where Arab despots. former deputy director of the State Department's Near East & South Asia Intelligence Office. Laying the groundwork for elections The Muslim Brotherhood was founded in Egypt in 1928 . Only by building a full-spectrum military force can America reassure its many friends and allies and count on their future support. Increased environmental regulations could cause countries to lessen their focus on international threats of violence. Politicians such as Nour.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. under Mubarak. Fall. where a man danced with a gyrating woman wearing a hijab. coerce belligerent states. are wooing supporters. “Ideology shadows fight to rule the new Egypt”. Montana. "The shorter the time before new elections. the better the chance for the already well-organized Brotherhood to maximize its gains. Bozeman. and defeat enemies does not rest on the strength of our political leaders’ commitment to diplomacy. had been rigged for years. Bishop Grewell is a research associate with PERC. Reuel Marc Gerecht." Nawara said. Dorell – 2/14 (Oren Dorell. "Because diplomatic currency is finite . according to Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq. such as the sale of ballistic missiles or border conflicts between nations. said Wael Nawara. and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. Only by retaining a “big stick” can the United States succeed in advancing its diplomatic priorities. Liberals and Islamists have announced that they intend to seek power through elections that. Int'l L. lessening the focus on other issues and even creating conflicts between issues. Others say democracy in Egypt could help radicals gain power. . surrounded by clapping onlookers. who spent years in jail for challenging Mubarak's repressive regime. Nour talked as his guests sat on gilded armchairs. Egyptians want a government that adheres to the universal declaration of human rights agreed to by the United Nations. Many in the West are hopeful that a democratic Egypt. Reporter at USA TODAY. In the upper-class neighborhood of Zamalek. Stanford University. who was forced out of the presidential palace Friday by the military and was staying at the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheik. these priorities have been opposing hostile domination of key geographic regions. secretary general of Nour's liberal party. the most populous nation in the Middle East with a population of about 82 million.com/news/world/2011-02-14-1Aegypt14_CV_N. http://www. 2001 2 Chi. As Schaefer writes. senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. As countries must watch over more and more issues arising in the international policy arena. members of Egypt's liberal opposition gathered Saturday night at the penthouse apartment of former presidential candidate Ayman Nour. C. and ensuring access to foreign economies." D. has argued that the United States should welcome the upheaval as a chance for the Arab world to modernize and allow moderate forces to gain the upper hand. Quick elections would result in a radical Egypt. Al Ghad. monarchs and sheiks have presided over restive populations from which militancy and terrorism have been exported for years. "The Muslim Brotherhood don't like music or dancing.usatoday. . are looking forward to running candidates openly.htm) CJC Leaders of political parties that dominated the protest movement disagree. they will stretch the resources necessary to deal with traditional international issues. fish and stuffed crab under a clear night sky beside the roof-top swimming pool. Diplomatic capital is finite – each new issue trades off with existing issues Anderson & Grewell – 01 (Terry L." Egyptians of all political persuasions celebrated the departure of Mubarak. J. Each new issue in the bag weighs it down. gesturing to a crowd listening to blaring music outside Al Ghad's downtown office. Parties that largely were banned by Mubarak. such as the Muslim Brotherhood. securing vital resources. Anderson is executive director of Political Economy Research Center ("PERC")The Center for Free Market Environmentalism. supporting our allies. deter competitors." said Wayne White. 2/14/2011. sipped sparkling fruit juices and dined on baked shrimp.com 7/148 Thursday File friends. it rests on the foundation of a powerful military. "Egyptians are very mellow. US influence over the Egyptian military is critical to ensure there is enough time for liberal political groups to organize to prevent a takeover by the Muslim Brotherhood in elections. People talked about a new dawn for Egypt and what it took to get to this point. J. 427) CJC Foreign policy is a bag of goods that includes issues from free trade to arms trading to human rights. it is critically important that the United States focus its diplomatic efforts on issues of paramount importance to the nation. Traditionally.
Initially completed over 140 years ago—after 1. Clearly. Its strength.5 billion in aid to Egypt each year — to use its influence to ensure Egyptian officers continue reforms. we got a glimpse at one important reason why. he said. she predicted. Every day. plans to push for a greatly expanded student exchange program with the West so young Egyptians can learn how to development the economy. It will embolden extremists like nothing since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Though Egypt exports none itself. But the youth can mobilize more. 3 million barrels of oil and fuel products pass through the canal and the Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline. “Will the Muslim Brotherhood Close the Suez Canal?”.0) CJC Almost immediately after angry Egyptians took to the streets last week. investors were spooked at even the thought of a disruption in energy production and shipping.5 percent of global oil production. who were not allowed to organize while the Brotherhood was able to do so in mosques and through its teachers and charities. The Suez Canal is one of the engineering marvels of the modern world. For example.com/?q=7928. Energy Department still classifies it as one of the few World Oil Transit Chokepoints.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.” It was a chilling peek at what might happen once the dust settles from these popular protests sweeping Egypt. Allowing the Muslim Brotherhood to gain control of Egypt would result in a closure of the Suez Canal. Hilliker – 2/2 (Joel Hilliker Columnist. On Sunday the Brotherhood got half of what it wanted. but not a cause for fearful reaction. The shock waves will be massive." Makram-Ebeid said. the Muslim Brotherhood will likely end up in power—which means the Middle East’s most populous and influential Arab country is about to lurch from relatively stable. 2011. Egypt's Armed Forces Supreme Council. war with Israel. announced that it had dissolved Mubarak's handpicked parliament and suspended the constitution.0. businesses and ordinary Egyptians say has made daily life here difficult. moderate ally to volatile. February 2. It was the first time oil hit triple digits since the record spike to $147 two years ago. Middle East Instability. Nawara says sweeping out the corrupt members of the regime is a first step toward encouraging foreign investment in Egypt that will lead to jobs. A leading Muslim Brotherhood member said the Suez Canal should be immediately shut down. The liberal parties say they also want the United States — which sends about $1. It inspired al-Qaeda founder Osama Bin Laden and his deputy. About two thirds of that energy is traveling north toward Europe. oil jumped to over $100 a barrel. "You counter (the Brotherhood) by allowing new parties to form without any restriction. That amounts to 2. Of particular concern is oil. It accounts for 5 to . On Monday. and all out war. surrounded in her office by wooden furnishings and framed oil paintings that hark to the early 20th century. is a result of Mubarak's repression of liberals. but the Brotherhood wants investment strategies to abide by Islamic law." E. which also traverses Egypt. The Brotherhood is "a cause for concern. collapsing European Economies. and place formidable levers of power in their hands.S. military — should remain in charge of Egypt until a civilian government is running smoothly. Ayman Al-Zawahiri.6537. connecting the Red Sea with the Mediterranean. http://thetrumpet. oil price shocks. "They can mobilize the street.S. Western optimism notwithstanding. radical enemy. Mona Makram-Ebeid.2 billion cubic feet of soil with picks and shovels—to this day it remains a conduit for roughly 8 percent of global seaborne trade. Control over the Suez Canal is definitely one of those levers. the U. as well as changes to the constitution that would lay the groundwork for elections soon. when Cairo was home to Jewish and Christian refugees from Europe. which is ruling the nation for now." Makram-Ebeid said. He also said Egyptians should “be prepared for war against Israel. This will revolutionize the landscape in the most combustible part of the world.5 million laborers moved more than 1.com 8/148 Thursday File as a strict Islamic alternative to Western influences. Nawara says Egypt's military — which has long had close ties to the U. The liberal parties and youth groups that kept the protests going for 20 days have a platform. both want to crack down on corruption and a culture of bribery that shopkeepers. thus linking Europe with East Africa and Asia. A sharia-based state would be "totally refused" if put to a referendum in Egypt. It’s a prime example of why Europe is watching events in Egypt so intently. and some of their goals are similar to those that the Brotherhood supports. a Coptic Christian and former member of the Egyptian parliament. which had been packed with provisions to prevent free elections and opposition parties. an Egyptian and former member of the Brotherhood. The Brotherhood's Abdel Fattah says the group wants Egypt's army to quickly pave the way for civilian rule. Muhammad Ghannem made the provocative statement to an Arabic-language Iranian news network. It spawned a radical cell that assassinated Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in 1981. It cuts through 118 miles of Egyptian countryside.
The European empire described in biblical prophecy—and presently coalescing. an associate professor at an Abu Dhabi energy-research center. a full four fifths of Western Europe’s oil was passing through it. would now be a strong probability. and European supply—and global prices—would be “affected tremendously. In fact. current conditions resound with echoes of that history. The canal was the West’s most prominent asset in the Middle East: At the time. told the Wall Street Journal. In July 1956. rather than a fading Britain. or should any Arab nation fire missiles against Israel.” Daniel 11:42 tells us). it actually tried to assassinate Nasser). also dissented. the links between Iran and Egypt will be strong and deep by that point—so much so that Europe will feel compelled to eliminate them both in a stroke. the existence of an arsenal of mass destruction in such an unstable region in turn has serious implications for future arms control and disarmament negotiations. is the prospect of a radical. (43) (Since launching its own satellite in 1988. the players would be somewhat different. spy secrets."(41) and Ezar Weissman. Since that event. marking its unmistakable loss of status as a great power—and the fulfillment of a biblical prophecy that it would lose control of its sea gates. a likelihood Barclays Capital warned of this week. It was a massive defeat for Britain in particular. The prospect of a Muslim Brotherhood government gaining control over this asset—punctuated by the explicit call for its closure by a prominent member—makes it easy to imagine a militant Egyptian government again using the canal to provoke a European power. delaying delivery times and markedly increasing costs. which it is in our interest to avoid at all costs. One could be forgiven for thinking that Ghannem’s call to close the canal was calculated to panic Europeans. and control of the vital Suez Canal was yielded up to Egypt. though. Israel's current President said "The nuclear issue is gaining momentum(and the) next war will not be conventional. France. The New York Times reported on the same possibility: “While [oil] prices are set globally. http://wagingpeace. as the Iraqis did.org/articles /0203/0331steinbachisraeli. “This is one of the reasons why Egypt’s stability is fundamental for the economy too. F. and Should war break out in the Middle East again.. MIDDLE EAST WAR WILL PRODUCE GLOBAL NUCLEAR CONFLAGRATION. “People talking about the closure of the Suez Canal are talking about a collapse of the state.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. an organization sure to prove even more aggressive than Nasser was (at one time. These differences would result in a far different outcome than the war in 1956. European oil prices have soared—even higher than those in America. heating oil and other distillates refined in the Middle East and shipped via the canal and pipeline” (emphasis mine). On the other side were the canal’s European owners. beholden to Third World opinion. Our editor in chief has speculated about the likelihood of oil factoring into this provocation: Iran could well gain control over supplies to such an extent as to be able to drive prices to uncomfortable highs. Britain and Israel responded to Nasser’s provocation by combining forces to invade. Steinbach. 2002. the Suez Canal was once before at the heart of a war. he seized control of the Suez Canal. The United Nations. Colonel Gamal Nasser had taken part in a coup against the Egyptian monarchy in 1952 and then overthrown the president two years later. extremely oil-dependent times.) Israeli nukes aimed at the Russian heartland seriously complicate disarmament and arms control negotiations . would be a surging. anti-West government taking over Cairo and shutting the canal down altogether. Europe has significantly reduced its dependence on Suez. a nuclear escalation. Worse.S. Already this past week. once unthinkable except as a last resort. On one side would be the Muslim Brotherhood.” Dalton Garis. and unimaginably ferocious in securing the energy and other resources it needs to fuel itself.. said Monday.S. Franco Frattini. “This in turn could cause Europe to quickly unite into the most powerful economic bloc in the world. On one side was an Egyptian leader with a vision of militant pan-Arabism that put him at odds with European colonial powers.” he wrote in the Trumpet’s December 1994 edition. That’s the last thing a continent mired in economic problems wants."(42) Russia and before it the Soviet Union has long been a major(if not the major) target of Israeli nukes. It is widely reported that the principal purpose of even the threat of nuclear war. however. Investors are concerned that Egypt’s instability makes ships passing through the canal more susceptible to attack. which relies heavily on jet fuel. nuclear targeting strategy. the Suez Canal remains very significant strategically. the United States broke from its British ally and came out firmly against the action. in Daniel’s prophecy. And. Islamist Middle Eastern power (“the king of the south”) of a German-led European empire (“the king of the north”). as a result of trade in the Mediterranean and therefore with Europe. Seymour Hersh warns. the immediate impact of any interruption would be felt primarily in Europe. Clearly. in a purposeful display of Arab strength. " Jonathan Pollard's spying for Israel was to furnish satellite images of Soviet targets and other super sensitive data relating to U. Longtime Trumpet readers are well familiar with the end-time prophecy in Daniel 11—set to be fulfilled soon—of a “push” by an Iranian-led.000 miles around Africa. Oil tankers transporting Middle East oil westward would have to travel the extra 6. This time.” Italy’s foreign minister. Israel no longer needs U. even amid financial troubles—is a voracious economic power. Disrupt these shipments. when a unified Europe wipes out Iran. it violently overthrows Egypt in the process (“and the land of Egypt shall not escape. in these economically strained. In what has proven to be a terrible blunder. In the end.com 9/148 Thursday File 7 percent of Europe’s oil consumption. a ceasefire was imposed. Nevertheless. And on the other.htm Meanwhile.” Remember. It is important to note that.. unified Europe.
In the words of Mark Gaffney. and dramatically lowers the threshold for their actual use.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 10/148 Cross-X." *****Uniqueness***** ..com Thursday File and.S. complicity) is not reversed soon. ". if not for all out nuclear war.. at the very least. the unilateral possession of nuclear weapons by Israel is enormously destabilizing.for whatever reason. if the familar pattern(Israel refining its weapons of mass destruction with U.the deepening Middle East conflict could trigger a world conflagration.
allies in Europe.cnn. Labott – 2/16 (Elise Labott. diplomacy?”." said Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg." . CNN Senior State Department Producer. That narrative is beginning to fade.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 11/148 Cross-X. either because we were too unilateral or we weren't dealing with what we needed to deal with. February 16. “Can Clinton remake U. and deepened relationships with traditional U. "That our credibility and leadership were shot.sweep/index. expanded ties with China. 2011.the idea that there was an American decline.com Thursday File UQ Ext – A2: Dip Cap Low Clinton efforts have restored credibility to American diplomacy.S.com/2011/POLITICS/02/16/clinton. http://www. which has massive undeveloped fields of petroleum and natural gas. she also traveled to the tiny Pacific island of Papua New Guinea.S. no country is too small to partner with the United States.html?iref=allsearch) CJC For Clinton. "These capital investments helped us deal with what was the biggest problem that we came in facing -. Even as she managed a reset with Russia.
Qatar. “Going. “Egypt isn’t moving toward democracy.” said Jon Alterman of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. over how far the military under Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi.com/site/topics/article.gulf-times.asp? cu_no=2&item_no=415614&version=1&template_id=57&parent_id=56) CJC There was a note of caution in the background. it’s moved into martial law and where it goes is now subject to debate. 75. He has been defence minister for more than 20 years with a past rooted firmly in the old guard’s ruling elite. it praised Mubarak for resigning “in the interests of the nation” and the “martyrs” who died protesting.” US officials familiar with the US-sponsored Egyptian military say Tantawi. “This is just the end of the beginning. Gulf Times – 2/11 (Daily Newspaper published by Gulf Publishing & Printing Co. are ready to permit a democracy -. 2011. In a statement.com Thursday File UQ Ext – A2: Military Control = N/U Mubarak step down just beings a new round of diplomacy with the military to ensure the transition. http://www. . Doha. however. Striking the even-handed note the military has maintained throughout the crisis.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 12/148 Cross-X. 11 February. GONE”. has long seemed resistant to change.especially since the hitherto banned Islamist Muslim Brotherhood is one of the best organised forces. going. Mubarak’s veteran defence minister. the higher military council said it would take measures for an interim phase and hoped to realise people’s hopes.
story? track=rss) CJC The question-and-answer session was Obama's first solo press conference since late December and gave reporters a chance to question the president on economic issues and to more fully probe the president's views on the situation in Egypt and other prodemocracy movements throughout the Arab world. "What we have seen so far is positive. . "Obviously. February 13. http://www. Obama posed a plan for United States policy. A White House aide said: "This is hardly over. “U. no champagne toasts on the Truman Balcony like the one Obama hosted after Congress passed his healthcare overhaul last year. "America can't dictate. there is still a lot of work to be done in Egypt itself. and say there are clear limits to Washington's influence on key players in Cairo. talks budget at news conference”.5736229. 2011. “Obama praises Egypt. it will happen because people come together. 2011.0." he said.com/news/politics/la-pn-news-conference-obama-20110216. lauding Egyptian demonstrators who peacefully "bent the arc of history toward justice included a pointed message for the military leaders who now were in charge. "The world is changing." Obama said Egypt is going to require help in developing democratic institutions. trying to keep the pressure on." but "there are certain universal principles we adhere to." But he also Diplomats know the situation is volatile and could easily spin out of control if they lack focus of their influence in Egypt.story? page=2&utm_medium=feed&track=rss&utm_campaign=Feed%3A%20latimes%2Fnews %2Fpolitics%20%28L. A senior administration official suggested Friday that the opposition should be satisfied with Mubarak's departure and other concessions." Noting that a wave of protests has spread across the region. 2011. LA Times Staff Writers.story?track=rss) CJC diplomats also acknowledge that events could still easily spin out of control given Egypt's lack of experience with democracy. for a "transition that is credible in the eyes of the Egyptian people.%20Times%20-%20Politics%29&utm_source=feedburner) CJC Obama at his most eloquent.com Thursday File UQ Ext – Focused Diplomacy Egypt still requires US diplomacy and regionally an increased role currently to deal with rising wave of protests to reassure allies.latimes.'' It was once more. "We are obviously concerned about stability. each country has its own traditions. But State U." US must continue to keep the pressure on the Egyptian military to ensure a smooth transition to elections. Los Angeles Times Reporters. but so far the country is sending "the right signals.0." There were no celebrations at the White House." Obama said in the wake of the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak and the takeover of government by the army. He drew a contrast between the demonstrations in Egypt and those in Iran.A. “Obama's strategy was to pressure Mubarak without intruding”.3805635.S. "We have sent a strong message to allies in the region. http://www. February 11. http://www. "This opens the door for them to begin a full dialogue. "Real change in these societies is not going to happen because of terrorism.com/news/politics/lafg-egypt-us-20110212. LA Times – 2/13 (Peter Nicholas. which have been stifled by the government." he said." and the issue is to "get ahead of change." Obama said people should have a right to express their opinions in public. faces critical test of influence on Egypt”.' " Obama also argued that change was an ongoing process. Cloud and Paul Richter." the president said. LA Times – 2/15 (Michael A. we don't believe in violence. we don't believe in coercion.5580994.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 13/148 Cross-X.latimes. "Each country is different.com/news/politics/la-fgegypt-obama-strategy-20110213. He would be watching. LA Times – 2/11 (David S.0. February 15.S." Obama said. 'Let us look at Egypt's example as opposed to Iran's. The administration has been busy making calls to senior Egyptian officers. Los Angeles Times. Memoli and Michael Muskal.latimes. he warned them.
2011.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.com 14/148 Thursday File Department officials warned that political reform will be a "medium term" undertaking. US is using the full force and speed of its diplomacy to handle the transition in Egypt. President Obama moved quickly within hours of Mubarak's departure to try to influence the Egypt that will follow. lifting the emergency law. http://www.S. is not without leverage.com/news/politics/lafg-egypt-us-20110212.'s fight for racial equality in the United States. commending the army for not firing upon the vast crowds protesting Mubarak's continued rule. his administration was adjusting to the loss of a bedrock ally in a volatile region. LA Times – 2/11 (David S. . The task is difficult because Mubarak brutally suppressed any party that threatened his stranglehold on power.0.S. the Berlin Wall's crumbling.3805635. Cloud and Paul Richter. Yet the U. But he reserved most of his praise for the protesters. Obama appeared to reach out to the military in his White House address. Washington director for Human Rights Watch. Obama made it clear that the U. faces critical test of influence on Egypt”. requiring time to develop and nurture institutions that will give the country a stable and inclusive political process. But even as Obama hailed the triumph of democracy in the Cairo streets. said that the Obama administration was already reaching out to other Middle Eastern allies to warn that they should respond to calls for reform to avoid the same sort of upheaval seen in Egypt. expects the Egyptian generals to dismantle the machinery of a repressive state. Los Angeles Times Reporters. Tom Malinowski.story?track=rss) CJC The Obama administration got what it said it wanted when Hosni Mubarak surrendered power.S. It provides Egypt with $1. Mubarak's departure threatens to end 30 years of certainty in which American administrations could count on Egypt maintaining its 1979 peace treaty with Israel." Obama said. Martin Luther King Jr. as well as cooperating on counter-terrorism efforts. Now it must deal with another daunting task: coaxing the country's new military rulers to deliver genuine democratic reforms they have resisted for decades. and laying out a clear path to elections that are fair and free. “U.5 billion in aid every year. In a seven-minute address from the White House. After days of being buffeted by events. requiring Egyptians to now build a democracy almost from scratch." "That means protecting the rights of Egypt's citizens. warning they would "have to ensure a transition that is credible in the eyes of the Egyptian people. He drew a link between the rebellion that began Jan. revising the constitution and other laws to make this change irreversible.latimes. 25 and some of the epochal political movements of the 20th century: Gandhi's nonviolent struggle for India's independence. and preserving that flow — as well as the Egyptian military's longstanding ties with the Pentagon — is likely to be a major goal for the country's new leaders. February 11.
” adds Kurtzer. But Clinton.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 15/148 Cross-X. http://www. “And she’s one of the only people who could step in. “You need someone out there who understands the complexity of this situation.” says Daniel Kurtzer who served as ambassador to Egypt under Bill Clinton and as President George W. Thrush – 2/2 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico. February 2. 2011. who can speak authoritatively at a time of rapid staff turnover in the West Wing.com/news/stories/0211/48658. “Hillary Clinton plays key role in dance with Hosni Mubarak”. That’s because the administration has never faced a foreign crisis of this magnitude that requires “all hands on deck.” in the words of one former State Department higher-up. Bush’s ambassador to Israel. who entered Foggy Bottom without the policy agenda of many of her predecessors.html) CJC Obama. has turned to Clinton in the past for advice and to serve as the public face for the administration’s policies.politico. It requires “all hands on deck” to manage the situation. But it’s also because the pragmatic Clinton is “one of the few remaining grown-ups. known for relying on a tight circle of foreign policy advisers based in the West Wing and Vice President Joe Biden’s office.” according to a senior administration official. She knows all of these players very well. and that’s critical at a time when the administration is presented with so few good alternatives.com Thursday File Diplomacy Focus Key Clinton and her diplomacy team are critical to a successful transition.” . “She’s the obvious choice to adopt this role. has never occupied such a central role in such an unpredictable situation.
com/news/opinion/commentary/laoe-mcmanus-column-egypt-20110213. said the official. But Egypt's next step is far from certain. 11.S.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 16/148 Cross-X. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. will push for a swift transition to a full and free democracy. energy and patience.com Thursday File UQ Ext – Military Diplomacy Dealing with the Egyptian crisis is requiring huge amounts of military diplomatic capital.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military. Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Admiral Mike Mullen. Our success relies on our military diplomacy to reassure allies that we have their back. officials met with Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak at the White House this week. Military diplomacy with Egypt is critical to ensuring a stable transition. The calls aren’t intended to pressure the Egyptian military to do anything specific. He is also calling for the drafting of a wholly new constitution and elections within a year.bloomberg. who wasn’t authorized to speak publicly on the calls. reporter for Bloomberg News. military’s commitment to that partnership. 2011. The connections may be critical in the coming weeks and months as Egypt’s Supreme Council of the Armed Forces directs a process toward elections and democratic rule. http://www.” Kirby said. Decades of ties. have made regular telephone calls to their counterparts. backing. McManus – 2/13 (Doyle McManus.latimes. has reported on national and international issues from Washington for more than 25 years. “Public Praise.N. according to Pentagon spokesmen Geoff Morrell and Navy Captain John Kirby. Mohamed ElBaradei. As Gates and Mullen have tried to keep on top of events in Egypt.S.3212459. President Barack Obama’s top military adviser. International Atomic Energy Agency who has offered himself as a transitional leader. “In both countries. for its part.” said Daniel Kurtzer. Military if left to their own devices will not transition to democracy. reporter for Bloomberg News. The inevitable messiness of the ensuing process will present hard choices for the . Washington columnist for the Los Angeles Times. Feb 13.column) CJC Left to their own devices. http://www.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military. Diplomacy will require continued aid. is going to have to show some results right away. the former chief of the U.0.html) CJC “The military. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. Lifting the state of emergency that’s been in effect for 30 years and given power to security forces would “send a powerful signal throughout the society. 2011. an end to the repressive state of emergency and new elections. has established relationships between the two forces and made pressure unnecessary so far. has proposed a three-man "presidential council" with only one of the seats reserved for the military. Feb 13. military schools. which took control of the country Feb. he will discuss security issues of mutual concern and reassure both these key partners of the U. U. and Mullen headed to Jordan and Israel to meet with senior civilian and military leaders there yesterday and today. a former ambassador to Egypt who is a lecturer at Princeton University.S. 11 and promised a transition to democracy. though they've promised constitutional changes.S. military official said on condition of anonymity. Gates and other top U.” he said. who provided few details on the substance of the conversations. http://www.html) CJC Pentagon officials are using public praise and private phone calls to help the Obama administration maintain connections and influence with the Egyptian military. including training of Egyptian officers at elite U. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. Mullen will attend a ceremony marking the end of Israeli Lieutenant General Gabi Ashkenazi’s term as chief of staff. “Public Praise. a U. 2011.S. “Mission not yet accomplished”. February 13. after President Hosni Mubarak ceded his powers to it Feb. they’ve also sought to reassure allies and partners in the region of U. it's unlikely the generals.bloomberg.S.
" They administration is understandably concerned that Egypt's next political leaders — whether they turn out to be the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. Some of those same House Republicans pressed the State Department last week to bar the Muslim Brotherhood from playing any role in a new Egyptian government. to add the democracy-friendly modifier "genuine. The administration wants more from Egypt than just democracy. and its peace with Israel. the Facebook insurgents in Tahrir Square or even the Muslim Brotherhood — won't be as strongly pro-U.S. The new Republican majority statement Friday. aid — and thus U. as late as Thursday. the first U.S. director of national intelligence under President George W. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. 2011. are in tension.S government will “play a role of holding the military’s feet to the fire” to ensure it makes democratic reforms. including the programs that would help Egyptian democracy.S. including for both Egypt and Israel. But after more than 30 years of support for the military governments of Mubarak and his predecessor. They didn't explain how to do that while reducing U. Rand Paul (R-Ky. the leader of the Senate's new "tea party" caucus. will require money." Obama said.S. Feb 13. as Mubarak was. Others would cut Egypt but spare Israel. he added. And. officials used most often over the last 18 days was "orderly.)." he said.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. President Obama said last week that he hoped Egypt's democratization would be both "orderly and genuine. advise and aid countries that are moving toward democracy in the world's most dangerous region. has proposed eliminating foreign aid entirely. while not contradictory." He must know that those two goals. energy and patience. which leaders of both U.S. http://www. it may prove difficult to convince Egypt's democrats that the United States was on their side all along.S.S. political parties have sought for decades.bloomberg. popular in Tahrir Square. "They must know that they will continue to have a friend in the United States of America. a move that wouldn't make the U.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. such as revising the constitution and enabling multiple political parties. “Public Praise.com 17/148 Thursday File Obama administration too. "Nothing less than genuine democracy will carry the day. It's a pity that such an opportunity has arrived when we seem to be short of all three. it also want to maintain Egypt's stability. in the House has already proposed deep cuts in foreign aid. Influence over the military is critical to ensure that transition is stable. John on CNN’s “State of the Union” yesterday . Anwar Sadat. Bush. Sen. The insurgencies in Egypt and Tunisia have presented the United States with an extraordinary opportunity: a chance to nudge. But that was a promise that may be difficult to keep. reporter for Bloomberg News. Obama made a start on that process with his when he praised Egypt's military for its role as "caretaker to the state" but pointedly defined its mission now as guaranteeing a real transition. its close military relationship with the U." and why Obama felt it necessary.html) CJC Negroponte. That's why the word U. the United States will help. leverage — at the same time.S." he said. Taking advantage of that opening. said that the U. "We stand ready to provide whatever assistance is necessary.
but is very much aware that it is the United States that is paying the bill that affords them the prestige and the influence in Egyptian politics that they enjoy. in part because of American influence. It forced them to push out Mubarak. Feb.S.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20110211/egypttransition-us-role-110211/20110211/?hub=WinnipegHome) CJC Basham. taxpayer basically funds the Egyptian military and has done so for many years. told CTV News Channel that the Egyptian military finally pushed the president out.ctv." Patrick . The Egyptian military certainly has good relations with the United States.ca News Staff-Canada.com Thursday File UQ Ext – US Has Influence Over Military US has influence over the military.S." he said. influence played no small part. "The U. 11 2011. "Whatever the motivations for the Egyptian military's move against Mubarak – clearly they told him he had to go – U. “Obama pledges to help Egypt transition to democracy”. director of the Washington-based Democracy Institute.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 18/148 Cross-X. http://winnipeg. C-TV News – 2/11 (CTV.
and the army even threatened to arrest those who refused to leave. the building of neighborhood watch groups and clean-up brigades—anything to prevent those unemployed men in Tahrir Square from going home. By whatever means possible. the essence of crowd euphoria is the feeling that one is part of something greater than oneself. not next month or next year but right now. and then slumping down again in front of Facebook or Al Jazeera.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 19/148 Cross-X. Disappointment in the slow pace of post-revolutionary change cannot be avoided. 2011.slate. the months following a revolution can therefore be more dangerous than the revolution itself. A letdown is inevitable. but if Egypt is to avoid either a coup d'etat or a return to mob rule. The satisfaction one receives from Twitter is not the same satisfaction one receives from spending hours in a room with a group of people. Historically. soldiers clashed with demonstrators who were reluctant to go home." declared one protester. As Le Bon understood. Disaster and dictatorship are not inevitable. the soldiers now ruling the country will have to do more than send everyone home. the creation of citizens' committees. especially if one has been part of a crowd for almost three weeks. Now the country's leaders must help channel all that enthusiasm into institutional change. the mob kept resurrecting itself in the years following 1789 (a tradition that continues into the present). the army should encourage the formation of political parties. . staring at the wall. On Sunday and Monday. Applebaum – 2/14 (Anne Applebaum is a Washington Post and Slate columnist. not just to celebrate but to demand more: "We won't leave because we have to make sure this country is set on the right path. Online activism is not a substitute for real activism.com/id/2285041/?from=rss) CJC Coming down from the high of a crowd experience and returning to the humdrum ordinariness of an individual life can never be easy. In France. Her most recent book is Gulag: A History. Feb. The dissatisfaction with the February revolution of 1917 led to the Bolshevik coup d'etat in October of that year. planning an election campaign. 14. described as unemployed. “The Roar of the Crowd”.com Thursday File UQ Ext – Timeframe – Next Few Months Key Next few months are critical to ensure that Egypt does not collapse. http://www. It's not remotely surprising that demonstrators keep returning to Tahrir Square after Mubarak's resignation.
Stremlau – 2/16 (John Stremlau is vice president for peace programs at the nonprofit Carter Center. http://www.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 20/148 Cross-X. that is why timing is everything. Radicals will use elections to gain power.com/2011/OPINION/02/15/stremlau. while facilitating as many international partners as possible. which has observed 82 elections in 34 countries. The group's grass-roots network is a source of power that liberals may have a hard time countering. especially to Egypt's large lower class." because leaders reject democratic laws that run counter to Islamic texts — but Islamists are willing to use elections to gain power. Dorell – 2/14 (Oren Dorell. says if radical Islamists come to power. hospitals and aid programs for the poor. White said. And it has welcomed the growing role of domestic and international nongovernmental organizations willing and able to support the process. they will foment a revolution along the lines of Iran's in 1979. It has engaged in the hard work of quiet diplomacy to encourage and. The movement may already be the bestorganized opposition group because of a network of charities. *****Links***** . Elections now mean they gain control because they are already well organized. http://www.com Thursday File UQ Ext – Dip. especially if not given enough time to organize. to lend their support. February 16. 2/14/2011.com/news/world/2011-02-14-1Aegypt14_CV_N. “Ideology shadows fight to rule the new Egypt”.usatoday.htm) CJC Pipes.egypt. with an implementation strategy and timetable. Pipes said. Reporter at USA TODAY. In Iran. 2011. Egypt's old Wafd and newer liberal and Daniel reform parties "may have a tough slog" reaching out. editor of the Middle East Forum. sustain these agreements. more importantly. the ruling Islamists' belief in God's sovereignty trumps political participation by the masses. “Two vital steps on path to democracy in Egypt”.cnn.democracy/) CJC The Obama administration has shown a consistent preference for inclusive agreements among all significant factions on basic election principles. including regional organizations and the United Nations. The Islamist movement is "inherently anti-democratic. K2 Election Timing Continued focused diplomacy is critical to ensure credible elections.
she and the State Department will assume full responsibility for U." Mills said." said Jake Sullivan. director of policy planning and deputy chief of staff. economic and social reforms and respect for human rights that she pressed for in Qatar.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 21/148 Cross-X. 2011. troops come home at the end of the year. which has quickly become the first major foreign policy crisis for the Obama administration. when the remainder of U. “Can Clinton remake U. And she must save the stalled Israeli-Palestinian peace talks from becoming a permanent casualty of recent events. it is really the beginning. In fact. Clinton will be doing a lot more juggling. for Clinton.S.html?iref=allsearch) CJC If the first six weeks of 2011 are any indicator. Clinton is said to have been in a "war-room mentality. Labott – 2/16 (Elise Labott.S. The timing of withdraw would undermine near term focus on Egypt. involvement in Iraq. Progress in creating a credible Afghan government and sustainable economy has also been an uphill battle. and she would like to support the president in advancing American values.S. will not abandon important and longtime allies. "The secretary is going to roll up her sleeves. and political reconciliation among the Taliban and other militant groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan.S. That will take time as well as diplomatic dexterity. particularly when it comes to foreign aid." talking to European and Arab allies about how the U." But Clinton knows the push for democracy is fraught with risk. And down the road. as a long list of foreign policy issues becomes the province of the State Department. interests and security in a region that is going through real transformation. http://www. Clinton will also need to work closely with allies about increasing pressure on Iran over its nuclear program.cnn. It will largely fall to Clinton to advance the strategy that she and Holbrooke envisioned. CNN Senior State Department Producer.sweep/index. "She respects what the people had to do to go out in (Tahrir Square). spread like wildfire to Cairo and which are now permeating throughout the region -. diplomacy?”. when the impact is triggered in the short term. While Mubarak has left the political scene. February 16. Rolling up her sleeves Yet no issue will likely demand more of Clinton's time in the near future than the political upheaval in Egypt." . Since Mubarak stepped down. The long-term is irrelevant. regional involvement.com/2011/POLITICS/02/16/clinton. In the coming weeks Clinton will have to defend her smart power efforts before Republicans in Congress intent on taking an ax to President Obama's budget. This link is a timing issue. marrying the fragile and reversible military gains with a political process that includes international diplomacy. "She sees this as one of the most significant strategic projects of the Obama presidency. she wants to stay true to the themes of political.com Thursday File A2: Link Turns: Timing – (A Must Read) Other issues will move forward diplomatically. Their link turns do not assume the refocusing to the Egypt crisis.issues which remain close to her heart. the chapter on Egypt's march toward democracy is far from complete. with Karzai an unreliable partner. "She feels the overwhelming weight of it. She is mindful of regional stability and wants to reassure other Middle East governments that the U. can nurture and facilitate a military-led transition. It's a personal challenge that speaks to the dilemma she has faced since becoming secretary of state. yearnings which were ignited in Tunisia. but NO issue will currently take a back seat to our effort in Egypt in the near future. On one hand.S. In addition to moving forward with engaging North Korea in the coming months.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 22/148 Cross-X.” she added. And how quickly that ground can shift under our feet.” .com Thursday File 2NC Link Magnifier . she said. “Obama huddles with aides on Egypt”. recent events in Egypt and certainly in that broader region. Thrush – 2/2 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico.S. “There are too many forces at work. (they) remind us all of how crucial it is to have top-notch leadership on the ground.politico. 2011. ambassadors that the current crisis was part of a “tough road ahead” for U. diplomats.S.html) CJC As Obama kept close tabs on the deepening crisis. “As we see. with what’s going on today. warned a gathering of U. who has become the administration’s public face during the crisis.Focus US Diplomats are at the breaking point and barely able to keep up with the current situations on their plates. They need all of the focus they have to deal with the Egyptian crisis. http://www.com/news/stories/0211/48700. some of which we are only beginning to understand. more WikiLeaks revelations and pressure from Congress to cut the State Department’s budget. diplomats the pitched street battles erupting in Cairo and elsewhere have pushed the country into “uncharted territory.S. February 2. include the possibility of instability in other countries.” Clinton. The challenges. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned U.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 23/148
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2NC Link Magnifier – Perception
US credibility for diplomacy is hanging by a thread in the Middle East. Perception of US backing away again would crush any influence that we have. CBS News – 2/11 (Ken Millstone, Staff Reporter; “Diplomat: Egypt Dislikes Suleiman's "Slimy Background"; February 11, 2011; http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20031554503544.html) CJC Ambassador Edward Peck, a career diplomat who served in Egypt and Tunisia, said that Suleiman
in many ways takes an even harsher and more authoritarian view of power than Mubarak. "He's been involved in a number of things that the people of Egypt do not like," including being the CIA's point man for the rendition and torture of terror suspects in Egypt, Peck said. He said Suleiman has "kind of a slimy background." Mubarak ceded power not to Suleiman but to the Egyptian armed forces and it is not clear what Suleiman's eventual role will be, if any. Still, Suleiman is a former military and intelligence officer with close ties to the military power structure. He "is always going to be a little trickle of saliva" that could be slurped back up into power at any time, Peck said. With or without Suleiman, a transition to democracy is no certainty, Peck
"It just takes one or two generals to say, 'Hey I kind of like being in charge.' That's happened before." Peck suggested that the U.S. has strained its credibility with other Arab world leaders by its somewhat erratic response to the events in Egypt - seemingly shifting allegiance to whatever actor seemed to be in the lead. "We have a just a tattered thread in that part of the world of the respect and reliability that we used to think we enjoyed on a regular basis," Peck said.
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2NC Aid Link Magnifier
(_) Aid Package Link: A. And, Independently of influence over the Egyptian military, the US is negotiating an international aid package that would be critical to ensuring a smooth transition because the protests have gutted its economy. Richter – 2/14 (Paul Richter, Tribune Washington Bureau Reporter; “Obama administration seeks emergency financial package for Egypt”; Feb. 14, 2011; http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2011/02/14/1867987/obama-administration-seeksemergency.html) CJC Amid calls in Washington for sharp cuts in foreign aid, the Obama administration is seeking an emergency financial package for Egypt, fearing that further strains on its economy could thwart Cairo's fledgling reform effort almost before it begins. U.S. officials have been working international partners to seek pledges for a package, probably worth several hundred million dollars, as well as money to help build political parties and other democratic institutions, say U.S. and foreign diplomats. Public anxiety over Egypt's struggling economy, including high unemployment and rising prices, was one of the key drivers of an 18-day uprising that toppled former President Hosni Mubarak, who resigned on Friday. Now that Mubarak is gone, analysts say Egyptians may be overly optimistic in expecting rapid economic improvements. Michele Dunne, a Mideast specialist who has advised the Obama administration on Egypt in recent weeks, said the economy is "one of the greatest vulnerabilities for a country that's in a transition like this." The Egyptian finance ministry has estimated that the unrest cost the economy about $310 million a
WASHINGTON day, and some private analysts have estimated that investors have been withdrawing investment at a rate of about $1 billion a day. Annual economic growth of 5 percent was predicted for Egypt before the demonstrations; now the consensus is closer to 1 percent. Dunne, now with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said if Egyptians have unreasonable
expectations about economic opportunities and instead conditions worsen, "it could really sour relations between people" and the transitional government. U.S. officials, who have been consulting widely on Egypt in recent days, declined to discuss their aid goals in details, saying they are in the early stages of discussions. They said they expect international development banks may also play a part in the aid.
B. Economic aid package to Eygpt would give positive light to the US with the Egyptian population, undercutting Muslim Brotherhood influence and message they would use to gain control. Bryen – 2/11 (Shoshana Bryen is senior director for security policy at The Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs in Washington; “Egypt needs more U.S. aid, not less”; 2/11/11; http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0211/49384.html) CJC Two factors may force the Administration to reconsider the size and scope of the aid. First is the attitude of the Egyptian people toward the United States. Though there has been little overt antiAmericanism in the demonstrations, Egyptians are acutely aware that U.S. aid largely flows to the military — with little benefit to them. The Muslim Brotherhood, with its network of religious schools and social programs, has capitalized on the difference between U.S. military aid and religiously inspired social services. It is not surprising that a recent Pew survey shows Egyptians preferring Islamic
government to “those who would modernize the country,” by 59 to 27 percent, and attitudes toward Americans running nearly 4:1 negative. The demonstrations and looting during the protests have wreaked havoc on the
Egyptian economy and capital is expected to flow out as soon as the banks reopen. The answer to “how much” may be sent abroad no one knows, but estimates run into the hundreds of millions at a minimum. Emergency food and economic stabilization aid from America could help average Egyptians see the United States as a benefactor and remove one anti-American prop from the Muslim Brotherhood and from Iran. Second is what the Egyptian military has acquired over the years.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.com 25/148 Thursday File The U.S. permitted Egypt to buy systems that directly threaten Israel – Harpoon Block II anti-ship missiles, for example – with little opposition from Israel or its friends in Congress because of Mubarak’s commitment to the peace treaty. Should the Muslim Brotherhood take a commanding position in a multi-party interim government, an implacable enemy of both Israel and the United States will have at least some say in the use of those military assets. Elsewhere in
the region, Hezbollah never won a majority in any Lebanese election, but imposes its will on the Lebanese government by threat of force — and now has a say in the operation of the U.S.-supported Lebanese Armed Forces. In a similar situation,
Washington would have no choice but to suspend military aid and cooperation with Egypt — with the loss of benefits to the United States that implies.
it has bipartisan support. Richter – 2/14 (Paul Richter.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 26/148 Cross-X. in a said the United States was committed to offering aid that was needed by Egypt "to pursue a credible and orderly transition to democracy.bellinghamherald. a spokeswoman for Lady Catherine Ashton." The aid discussions have come at a time when the administration has been reaching out to allies in the Middle East." The U." said Stephen McInerney.html) CJC The U. must promote stability in countries such as Egypt or "we will pay a higher price later in crises that are allowed to simmer and boil over into conflicts. executive director of the Project on Middle East Democracy. “Obama administration seeks emergency financial package for Egypt”. "I think they'll feel this cause is worth it. 2011. President Barack Obama. Feb. an EU international finance arm.com/2011/02/14/1867987/obama-administration-seeksemergency. Tribune Washington Bureau Reporter. 14.5 billion per year.com Thursday File Ext – Aid Link: A2 Aid Cuts Now Aid package will pass in the US despite calls for cuts in the Aid budget.S. The push for more aid comes at a difficult time for the United States and many allies. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton met with House Speaker John Boehner. they will chart a different course. currently gives Egypt about $1. most of it going to the Egyptian military. and some analysts predict there will be bipartisan support for at least some increase in Egypt's aid. Yet the overthrow of Mubarak has been welcomed by Democrats and Republicans." Clinton said. trying to work out a common position on how to encourage democratic change in Egypt. statement last weekend. Maja Kocijancic. said the EU is considering the possibility of aid. including by working with international partners to provide financial support. . The Obama administration is trying to prevent Republicans from imposing steep cuts on foreign aid. Clinton said she hopes that as Congress considers "the national security and economic consequences of these cuts. who are already struggling with severe austerity budgets. http://www. Continued diplomacy is critical to building international support for the aid package. the European Union's foreign affairs chief. on Monday and expressed her concern about proposed reductions for the State Department and aid programs.S. R-Ohio. perhaps through loans by the European Investment Bank. Europe and elsewhere.
com Thursday File Ext – Aid Link: Econ Spark Instability Egypt economic issues continued would spark another wave of instability. Meanwhile. " Treasury Calls for Scrutiny of Egypt ". 2/17/11.wsj. Egypt's stock exchange again delayed its opening. as labor strikes continued and school openings were delayed.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 27/148 Cross-X. as employees protest poor wages and demand that bank leaders be prosecuted for alleged corruption. http://india. Banks said they won't reopen until Sunday. WSJ 2/17 (Jay Solomon. pushing it to Monday. Matt Bradley. the official Egyptian state news agency. The labor crisis has been the most formidable challenge for the country's new military leaders and threatens to pierce a fragile calm that has prevailed since political protests ended Friday after nearly three weeks. Strikes could add to mounting economic woes.html) Egypt's new military rulers faced growing hurdles in their efforts to restore normalcy to the country. . according to MENA.com/article/SB10001424052748703373404576148073209074728.
and Force Development AND **member of the Center for Naval Analyses assigned to III Marine Expeditionary Force. The United States can succeed in advancing its priorities by diplomatic means only so long as it retains a "big stick. it must be willing to maintain a world-class military. Military Presence in the Asian-Pacific Region”. The ability of the United States to reassure friends. Australia released a defense white paper concerned primarily with the potential decline of U. Gates' vision for "rebalancing" the military are drastically disconnected from the broad range of strategic priorities that a superpower like the United States must influence and achieve.as if diplomacy were merely about communications and eliminating hurt feelings.S. strategy. If our country allows its hard power to wane.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 28/148 Cross-X. Obama has argued that America must "combine military power with strengthened diplomacy. That requires resources: spending. An ally's reliance on U. 5]MGM political effect of presence is that it augments diplomatic influence. to intervene on their behalf any time. http://www. Plans. 2009 [Kim. Holmes. explicit or implicit. “The Political Effects of U. Senior Executive Service and principal director. of the withdrawal of forces is present. It's this connection of hard to soft power that Mr." But since becoming president he has done little to demonstrate an actual commitment to forging a policy that combines America's military power with diplomatic strategies.S. In what is becoming a signature trait of saying one thing and doing another. presence to deter a threat and the positive effects of assurance derived from deterrence can be used in diplomatic negotiations through linking the topic of negotiations to the continuation of that presence.. not just soft. military primacy and its implications for Australian security and stability in the Asia-Pacific. military relationship (technology transfers and port visits) with that country. Unfortunately.8 The third .need to know they can count on the U.d. it is about the interaction and sometimes clash of hardened interests and ideologies. The threat. deter competitors. anywhere it has to.S. These are serious matters.“The Importance of Hard Power”. of using the hard power of force to settle things. Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of defense for Strategy. VP for Foreign and Defense Policy Studies and Director of the David Institute for International Studies at the Heritage Foundation. April." Decrease in US military presence directly trades-off with diplomatic influence. where America's ability to hedge against the growing ambitions of a rising China is being called into question by some of our key Asian allies. Ph. Similarly.and the rest of our allies . our leaders will lose crucial diplomatic clout. 1991 [Daniel and Jonathan. it rests on the foundation of a powerful military.S. for example. and defeat enemies does not rest on the strength of our political leaders' commitment to diplomacy. 6-12. Center for Naval Analysis. That will require hard power. diplomatic words murmured whilst strolling serenely along "Obama Beach.org/Research/Commentary/2009/06/The-importance-of-hard-power] MGM The problem here is not merely an overconfidence in the process of "talking" and trying to achieve "mutual understanding" . Chiu & Dworken. though only indirectly related to presence. For America to be an effective leader and arbiter of the international order. Mr. a link exists between reform in the PRC and the U." Only by building a full-spectrum military force can America reassure its many friends and allies and count on their future support. Office of the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Strategy. Rather.S. This is already on display in the western Pacific Ocean. pg. on average. Mr. Recently. The next British leader . when negotiating trade policy and burden-sharing with Japan. coerce belligerent states. Obama appears not to understand. when need be. as well as in talks on trade policy and political reform in the ROK.heritage.com Thursday File 2NC Links – Plan Kills Coercive Diplomacy Obama needs to strengthen the military – the perception of declining commitments kills our diplomatic influence. no less than 4 percent of the nation's gross domestic product on defense. Obama's next proposed defense budget and Secretary of defense Robert M. These developments are anything but reassuring. and you don't take them seriously by wishing away the necessity.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 29/148 Cross-X. When the perceived threats decline.S. Center for Naval Analysis. so does the value of U. and Force Development AND **member of the Center for Naval Analyses assigned to III Marine Expeditionary Force. Senior Executive Service and principal director. There is a severe limitation to this effect. presence. Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of defense for Strategy. “The Political Effects of U. Plans.S. Office of the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Strategy. Chiu & Dworken. at best.com Thursday File Pulling out when threats are high wrecks our influence. Military Presence in the Asian-Pacific Region”. making the leverage in negotiations slim. pg. 23] MGM Note: This is a footnote explaining diplomatic presence and US military presence 8. strategy. April. 1991 [Daniel and Jonathan. .
He graduated from Harvard College and received a M. http://www.edu/Publications/Naval-War-CollegePress/Newport-Papers/Documents/26-pdf. These are national commitments. where America’s ability to hedge against the growing ambitions of a rising China is being called into question by some of our key Asian allies.A. Recently. “Sustaining American Leadership with Military Power”.usnwc.” Chapter 3: Politics and Diplomacy of the Global Defense Posture Review. The ability of the United States to reassure friends. and Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs from 2001-2005. coerce belligerent states. and funding allotted to his department. the fielding of powerful and complex weapons systems.S. Korea. Mr.. Holmes. excites foreign . deter competitors. The Global Defense Posture Review (GDPR) is such an undertaking. or reconfiguration of an organizational empire that includes well over two million soldiers and civilians. that America is committed—via the North Atlantic Treaty. To think otherwise would be to overlook the belief. Reducing military presence prompts State Department intervention – focuses diplomatic efforts on minimizing effects of the aff. Ph. and an annual budget now surpassing $400 billion. This is already on display in the western Pacific Ocean.d. armed forces standing the watch in almost every latitude and time zone has calmed regional rivalries and dissuaded armed escalations for sixty years. and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs (1988-89) among other policy positions in the Defense Department dating to 1981. Australia released a defense White Paper that is concerned primarily with the potential decline of U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 30/148 Cross-X. Only by building a full-spectrum military force can America reassure its many friends and allies and count on their future support. indeed overwhelmingly. 6-1-2009. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy.L. streamlining.amazonaws. 2009 (Kim Holmes. and the sight of U. they will of course cite the prosecution of wars both hot and cold. Rarely to be found among these major tasks will be any large-scale updating. solemnly made. Bloomfield. and Australia— to come to their defense in extremis. http://s3. political in terms of its effect on the rest of the world. These developments are anything but reassuring. the Philippines.S.D.com Thursday File Link – General Decreasing military deployments kills diplomatic influence.pdf) The consequences of hard-power atrophy will be a direct deterioration of America’s diplomatic clout. and defeat enemies does not rest on the strength of our political leaders’ commitment to diplomacy. military primacy and the implications that this decline would have for Australian security and stability in the Asia–Pacific. “Reposturing the Force: U. approximately five thousand facilities spread all over the country and the world. Former US Special Envoy for Man-Portable Air Defense Systems Threat Reduction.com/thf_media/2009/pdf/sr0052. and the promulgation of defense and security strategies to prepare for and deter threats to the national interest. Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century.S. the Rio Treaty. and bilateral security treaties with Japan. 2006 [Lincoln. it rests on the foundation of a powerful military. VP for Foreign and Defense Policy Studies and Director of the David Institute for International Studies at the Heritage Foundation. At the same time. Bloomfield previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (1992-93). Only by retaining a “big stick” can the United States succeed in advancing its diplomatic priorities. For all the calculations of greater efficiency and utility that commend the idea of reconfiguring America’s global military footprint. this initiative is inescapably. Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs (1991-92). A global posture realignment that involves moving large numbers of those sentries and their weapons inevitably begs the most urgent of security questions. assets.aspx] An Ambitious Concept When historians look back on the Defense Department’s biggest undertakings during its first six decades of existence. Thailand. resident in allied populations in more than fifty countries by latest count. this massive exercise in managerial housekeeping by the secretary of defense cannot be viewed exclusively as one cabinet executive’s effort to make more productive use of the people.
there were indeed some in the State Department who wanted nothing more than for the initiative to go away and who feared damage to alliances if it went forward. their facilities. and Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs from 2001-2005. such concerns were not limited to experienced regional specialists in the State Department.S. European and Asian foreign-policy experts. never mind foreign policy bureaucrats. The concern was not imaginary. and it embodied major foreign policy equities. and reposition the U. and capabilities to fulfill those commitments. depending on how the matter is handled. might aggravate rather than defuse foreign anxieties were also not entirely misplaced. Big Change. is noteworthy. forces outside Still. global defense posture could profit the nation’s security. 2006 [Lincoln.usnwc. He graduated from Harvard College and received a M. Former US Special Envoy for Man-Portable Air Defense Systems Threat Reduction. Bloomfield. an efficiently designed. and land routes from one region to the next. There remains a need for allies. indeed opposition.S. One could well imagine the Pentagon’s potential misgivings about placing this hugely ambitious venture at the mercy of other departments. Bloomfield previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (1992-93). Big Decision: Getting to “Yes” What with the profound implications of a posture change for allied countries hosting U. The plan requires significant diplomatic resources to reassure allies. of perturbing the very stability that America’s global military presence is meant to ensure. In at least one country DoD doggedly sought to announce and implement a drawdown of military assets against that ally’s wishes and with an evident relish that required diplomatic damage control and led the president to withhold to himself the withdrawal decision. and their support structure should be physically positioned according to the logic of global geography is very appealing. An Ambitious Concept The idea that U.aspx] a major change in defense doctrine and practice requires a significant public diplomacy effort if it is to be accepted abroad.D.S. a well-executed streamlining of the U.S. whose reaction to any disturbance of the diplomatic status quo might be expected to be one of resistance to change. the decision to embark on a global realignment was the president’s to make.S. directly to the point of engagement. without overly taxing the system. bases or consolidated in other locales. and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs (1988-89) among other policy positions in the Defense Department dating to 1981. his determination to rethink.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. Over the long term. particularly in Asia. braving the predictable resistance of settled constituencies from one end of the globe to the other. if not in monetary terms certainly in the ability of a finite force structure to deliver the maximum military benefit through the greater efficiencies and capabilities of the new global posture. certainly none of his predecessors seriously attempted it. even when the nature and location of the crisis had not been foreseen. military’s posture at home and abroad according to a rational design reflecting contemporary security conditions should stand as a positive mark in his legacy. That he did it during wartime is extraordinary. military force units. air. . Of all of Donald Rumsfeld’s actions during his headline-filled second tenure as secretary of defense.com 31/148 Thursday File anxieties in many quarters. That Mr. and the allied governments themselves. forces and the state of America’s diplomatic relations with them. Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs (1991-92). Conceptually. to have a clear and compelling vision of how the new global defense posture—embracing U.edu/Publications/Naval-War-CollegePress/Newport-Papers/Documents/26-pdf. On the other hand. Rumsfeld took on this monumental management task.S. The Department of State. would inevitably make their voices heard before the Department of Defense’s new scheme based on geographic convenience and logistical efficiency could supplant longstanding basing patterns in foreign localities. by their manner. policy bureaucracy as a whole. are no longer usefully measured by numbers of troops. globally managed force posture would optimize the flow of combat power along sea.” Chapter 3: Politics and Diplomacy of the Global Defense Posture Review. Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century. The foreign press has focused on troops scheduled to be pulled back to U.L. their equipment. and officials need to be not simply told but persuaded that America’s commitments to them. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. concerns in the State Department that some Department of Defense (DoD) officials. there were varying perceptions about whether the advertised merits of particular changes under the Global Defense Posture Review would indeed redound to the long-term security benefit of the United States. “Reposturing the Force: U.S. http://www. redesign. Within the U. Mr.A. even to discussing prospective force reductions with allied countries. journalists.S. and therefore runs the risk. Such a concept would best allow future presidents to position viable military options to employ anywhere in response to a sudden danger on the shortest of notice.
with the DoD worldwide realignment plan finally ready for top-level interagency consideration. were of course part of the GDPR picture. allies. the White House released President George Bush’s statement announcing the new initiative. split up and barnstormed a total of twelve European capitals. Secretary of State Colin Powell understood DoD’s concern that the initiative could be subjected to death by a thousand cuts. to ask “Why now?” and put it off for another day. and deserving of priority support subject to the president’s approval. From there the issue went to the president. High-level administration visitors to Asian capitals. Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs (1991-92). Rolling Out the Initiative On 25 November 2003. and when they had finished.D. difficult project was not driven by exigencies of current military operations. Secretary Powell pledged his and the State Department’s support and assistance to the Global Defense Posture Review under one condition.” The words were carefully chosen. worthy. one that won quick endorsement from DoD and the interagency realm—that this initiative had to be conducted in full consultation with affected governments around the world.” Chapter 3: Politics and Diplomacy of the Global Defense Posture Review. 2006 [Lincoln. A few hearts stopped. and Singapore. Major allies Japan and Korea. none of the recommended changes in overseas American presence was yet decided. Secretary Rumsfeld rolled out his map.” and consultations were to be integral to his decision process. Secretary Powell said he thought the briefing had misstated the facts about European bases being obsolete because of their relevance to World War II. and stealth. mobility. Bloomfield previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (1992-93). The secretary continued.A. It must not be a fait accompli imposed on allies from Washington. the administration found itself in consensus that the GDPR was timely. and Tokyo . who approved it to proceed to public rollout and consultation with other governments. emphasizing the need to move past a World War II–era basing structure.S. From the president’s perspective. comprehensive posture reviews on a bilateral basis. the United States will intensify our consultations with the Congress and our friends. who visited Canberra. such as Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. Many in Congress. His point was effectively made—of course we needed to update and rationalize our force posture. Empirical proof.edu/Publications/Naval-War-CollegePress/Newport-Papers/Documents/26-pdf. http://www. “Reposturing the Force: U. however. time was running short if GDPR decisions were to be in hand for the BRAC analytical work that was to commence in early 2004. This was followed within days by a joint appearance at the North Atlantic Council by Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Marc Grossman and Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Douglas Feith. and asked his aides to brief the rationale for this transformational initiative. Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century. understandably fearful of losing home-district bases under BRAC. that in some locations— including German facilities under his command in the 1980s—the bases dated all the way back to the Franco-Prussian War. all eyes turned to the secretary of state. With that pithy intervention by Secretary Powell.aspx] Since this large. Bloomfield. which said in part: “Beginning today. Former US Special Envoy for Man-Portable Air Defense Systems Threat Reduction. as the host governments in each case were deeply involved in discussions about potential adjustments. and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs (1988-89) among other policy positions in the Defense Department dating to 1981. By mid2003. which developed a final list of recommended domestic base closures during 2005. When the principals finally engaged at the White House. Mr. Secretaries Powell and Rumsfeld launched diplomatic consultations on the GDPR at the December 2003 NATO ministerial meetings. By the fall of 2003. In March 2004 Under Secretary Feith led a delegation (including the author) that briefed this initiative in Beijing. already undergoing very careful. He graduated from Harvard College and received a M. this review was “ongoing. Precision strike. while the author made a side trip to Manila for the same purpose. and silence pervaded the room. and Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs from 2001-2005. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. had told the administration not to start that process until it had first scrubbed the overseas basing system for other ways to streamline the global footprint. and partners overseas on our ongoing review of our overseas force posture. articulated his concept.com 32/148 Thursday File as well as within their borders—will ensure their security as before. there was no requirement for a special briefing to either. Canberra. Beijing. among other advances. whenever the issue was raised within senior interagency circles.L. Other agencies offered their comments.usnwc. make possible this assurance. Specific force posture changes would require presidential approval at a later stage. following which these two officials. What finally forced the issue was the link between prospective overseas withdrawals of military assets and units and the planned round of the Base Closure and Realignment (BRAC) Commission. backed by respective interagency delegations. there was also a temptation. deadpan.
carried to those regions the message that others had already given to Europe and Asia. Former US Special Envoy for Man-Portable Air Defense Systems Threat Reduction.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. The recent examples of relatively lean forces dislodging the Taliban regime from Kabul and then the Saddam Hussein regime from Baghdad spoke volumes about conceptual leaps forward in the military arts by the United States since World War II. Bloomfield previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (1992-93). closure of facilities. Also – negotiating SOFAs requires time and resources.edu/Publications/Naval-War-CollegePress/Newport-Papers/Documents/26-pdf. the approach was to explain the merits of rationalizing the global U. We’re packing up here and so I’ve got to take off. and How Might One Be Utilized In Iraq?”. Persuading allies that military operations had evolved over time was not difficult. but I think we also have to start looking at the military leaders in a much more critical way than they’re accustomed to be looked at. You know. respectively. and they should take their fair share of blame. and Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs from 2001-2005. but I appreciate your time and we’ll talk again soon. even when there is no formal mandate from NATO. Bloomfield. the UN. Mason. Africa. readily responded to public and official queries about GDPR. $600 billion to $50 billion.com/blog/2010/06/26/michael-hastings-interview-transcript/] there’s a larger kind of structural issue here about – you just compare the DOD budget to the State Department budget. or timetables. and technologies now operated.S. the EU or their parliaments. Every geographic combatant commander’s area of responsibility was slated to experience change.edu/marshall/crsreports/crsdocuments/RL34531_06162008. none of this was included in the initial briefings. This is not to say.S. the two are one.L. as American military power is staged from their territories in future crises. European governments will do well to revisit their ability to act immediately on time-sensitive intelligence. You know.” Chapter 3: Politics and Diplomacy of the Global Defense Posture Review. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. Rolling Stone.A. however.pdf] . And I think that translates Hastings: I think into the fact that a lot of the time just the leaders get the blame for all the wars. As this was truly a global initiative. regardless of the urgency.usnwc. http://www. so you look like at just the sort of decay of the State Department and basically our foreign policy has become our defense policy. Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs (1991-92). South Asia. More ev – US will have to reassure allies. assuring the Australian public that the United States did not seek to base combat units in Australia. 2006 [Lincoln. there’s more people in the Army band than there are foreign service officers. you look at every foreign service officer – you know. Hastings. the administration provided briefing points for ambassadors to scores of countries.umaryland. And. Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century. for example. Instead. 6/16.law. You know. and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs (1988-89) among other policy positions in the Defense Department dating to 1981.antiwar.aspx] As the GDPR moves toward the implementation phase.” http://www. it will serve the United States and its traditional allies best if the sides come to a mutual understanding on how to meet the needs of all. platforms. 2009 [Chuck.D. and Latin America. that all these consultations in Europe and Asia divulged specifics on planned movements and locations of units. military network so as to reflect the considerable changes over several decades in the way American soldiers. Mr. The United States will do well to work out with allied governments modalities to satisfy host countries’ legitimate needs for information and consent. and the State Department’s regional assistant secretaries for Near East. indeed since Vietnam. State Department is stretched thin and military-diplomatic issues are inextricably linked. http://www. “Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA): What Is It.com 33/148 Thursday File during the winter of 2003–2004. “Michael Hastings Interview Transcript. You know. freelance writer. 6-26-2010 [Michael. in fact. “Reposturing the Force: U. He graduated from Harvard College and received a M. Deputy Secretary Armitage was able to calm negative foreign press speculation by. you could fit every foreign service officer on an aircraft carrier.
.J. holding expected levels of compliance constant. .. treaties) often exacerbate the difficulties with renegotiation because unless a treaty provides otherwise. material. (2) when a servicemember is to be tried by authorities in a receiving state.. . subject to reservations..6 The Department of State and the Department of Defense. identify the need for a SOFA with a particular country and negotiate the terms of the agreement.. “SOFT LAW AS DELEGATION”. . The U.10 Renegotiating treaties like SOFAs to withdraw troops take large amounts of diplomatic capital because many parties have veto power. . have been deterred by a hard regime. The NATO SOFA7 is the only SOFA that was concluded as part of a treaty.8 The Senate approved ratification of the NATO SOFA on March 19. abridges.e. however. as well as opportunistic violations of the soft regime that could for new conditions. which has the effect of reducing the reputational sanction for violating the soft law rule (because not all states will see a violation of the one as a violation of the other). . J. the cost to the United States of trade sanctions from a minor trading partner may be small compared with the benefits of such a violation because of the relative importance of the trading relationship to each state. Because the rule prohibiting the transfer of X is not directly binding.S. .. sought to make India an exception to the NSG rules that transfers can only be made to non-nuclear weapons states that have accepted safeguards on all of their nuclear operations (India.. Fordham University School of Law Fordham International Law Journal.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 34/148 Cross-X. flexibility-enhancing devices are available to states to promote agreement in situations in which the parties might otherwise be unable to reach an accord.. Ph. University of California. Berkeley. would not put safeguards on its military nuclear operations). and. Flexibility as a Device to Promote Agreement Other scholars have suggested that a variety of .. establishing a soft law regime recognizes that the benefits to permitting those states to update legal rules over time outweighs the costs in terms of an opportunistic updating of such rules. or alters the right of the United States to safeguard its own security by excluding or removing persons whose presence in the United States is deemed prejudicial to its safety or security. From an evolutionary standpoint. like the nuclear weapons states. (4) a representative of the United States be appointed to attend the trial of any servicemember being tried by the receiving state and act to protect the constitutional rights of the servicemember...D. the commanding officer shall request that the receiving state waive its jurisdiction. and equipment. by permitting adjustment of the legal rules and expectations. This increase in the supply of counterproliferation is a public good that in some measure offsets the cost to other states of accepting their less-preferred counterproliferation rules. Meyer Fellow Institue for Global Conflict 2009 (Timothy. University of California. However. PSI's purpose is to enforce international nonproliferation obligations by making it more difficult to acquire sensitive technology. as an export control regime. every party to a treaty exercises a veto over amendments..S. Institute for Global Conflict and Cooperation and the National Science Foundation. perceptions about the relationship between the two rules may vary. and that no person whose presence in the United States is deemed prejudicial to its safety or security shall be permitted to enter or remain in the United States. The resolution included a statement that nothing in the Agreement diminishes. . Jurisprudence and Social Policy. Because states are likely to have ex ante expectations about who the first movers will be....S. 888. Constitution.... (3) if the commanding officer believes there is danger that the servicemember will not be protected because of the absence or denial of constitutional rights the accused would receive in the United States. in which rules change over time to account flexibility can enhance global welfare over time. 32 Fordham Int'l L. February 2009. . Public Policy and Nuclear Threats Fellow..com Thursday File With the exception of the multilateral SOFA among the United States and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries..D. working together. Lexis) Binding international agreements (i. Berkeley School of Law. the commanding officer of the U.9 The Senate reservations to the NATO SOFA include four conditions: (1) the criminal jurisdiction provisions contained in Article VII of the agreement do not constitute a precedent for future agreements. armed forces in that state shall review the laws of the receiving state with reference to the procedural safeguards of the U.. First. a SOFA is specific to an individual country and is in the form of an executive agreement. 1970..
The Department is working to help build a whole-of-government approach to the provision of security assistance.S. both within DoD and beyond. these were shared with and reviewed by a wide range of experts. DoD officials also engaged with their counterparts elsewhere in the U. strengthening our technology and industrial bases to facilitate innovation. and institutional reforms necessary to protect and advance U. government to benefited from further the kind of integrated security approaches long advocated by the President. and crafting a strategic approach to climate and energy challenges. the QDR highlights the importance of revitalizing defense relationships with allies and partners in key regions. For example. and Quadrennial Intelligence Community Review respectively. Quadrennial Homeland Security Review.com Thursday File Link – Military Change Military reforms and changes to our SQ policy require tons of diplomatic capital – consultation and reviews will happen at all levels of government.S.S. As the QDR generated insights and interim findings.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 35/148 Cross-X. improving our defense acquisition and logistics processes to better support our personnel in harm’s way. QDR staff consulted with and briefed congressional staff as well as representatives of allied and other governments. February 1. 2010) Part of the Department’s obligation to defend and advance U.S. Defense leaders and staff worked closely with the Departments of State and Homeland Security. Secretary of Defense. key missions. capabilities. An important element of revitalizing key relationships is the need to craft an approach to the U. This QDR extensive engagement with key stakeholders. facilities. interests. Given the complex security environment and the range of missions. as well as the Intelligence Community. and Secretary of State. sharing insights regarding analysis. as they undertook their Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review. and plans in overlapping issue areas. . and defense agreements across regions. defense posture that emphasizes cooperation with allies and partners and retailoring military forces. Over the course of the review. capabilities. The Quadrennial Defense Review in 2010 (QDR Report prepared for Congress. interests while taking care of our people is the imperative to reform how it does business.
Afghanistan has been governed. In Vietnam. in turn. The second option--offered as an alternative--would shrink the current mission by focusing on counter-terrorism rather than counterinsurgency. however. Military strategy is traditionally defined by control of the maximum amount of territory. Kissinger. David Petraeus. But to win in Afghanistan we’ll need help from its powerful neighbors” Lexis] The demand for an exit strategy is. The argument would be that the overriding American strategic objective in Afghanistan is to prevent the country from turning once again into a base for international terrorism. if at all. or a more effective way to sustain it. This is of particular relevance to Afghanistan. It would be ironic if. cooperation with the Taliban in the governance of Afghanistan. Yet the fanaticism that motivates guerrillas--not to speak of suicide bombers--does not allow for compromise unless they face defeat or exhaustion. Even so-called realists--like me-would gag at a tacit U. and loss of confidence in American reliability. It would raise the most serious questions about American steadiness in India. therefore. Is that paradox soluble? The prevailing strategy in Afghanistan is based on the classic anti-insurrection doctrine: to build a central government. will be which part of Afghan territory can be effectively controlled in terms of these criteria. ever pacified the entire country. threatening domestic chaos. of course. A key strategic issue. A decision not to increase current force levels involves. 2009 [Henry. any attempt to endow the central government with overriding authority has been resisted by some established local rulers. Even Alexander the Great only passed through. President Obama. No outside force has. The request for more forces by General McChrystal states explicitly that his existing forces are inadequate for this mission. Since the Taliban. That is likely to be the fate of any central government in Kabul. though as we have seen in Korea. by following the received counterinsurgency playbook too literally. implying three options: to continue the present deployment and abandon the McChrystal strategy. Every guerrilla war raises the challenge of how to define military objectives. in guerrilla war. ultimately deeper American involvement. 10-12. in fact. since the Mongol invasion. or to increase the existing deployment with a strategy focused on the security of the population. The domestic debate generates the pressure for diplomatic compromise. fundamental . It would also imply the partition of Afghanistan along functional lines.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 36/148 Cross-X. and then protect the population until that government's own forces are able. This theory seems to me to be too clever by half. we produced another motive for civil war. “More troops is a start. threat. In short. But those occurred after the surge. extrication becomes his principal objective. As president. After all. it was the Taliban which provided bases for Al Qaeda in the first place. to decrease the present deployment with a new strategy. according to this view. The prospects of world order will be greatly affected by whether our strategy comes to be perceived as a retreat from the region. each with outstanding qualifications. it can be relegated to being a secondary target. have all been recently appointed by the Obama administration. control of 75 percent of the territory 100 percent of the time is more important than controlling 100 percent of the territory 75 percent of the time. Rejecting their recommendations would be a triumph of domestic politics over strategic judgment. to take over. abandoning the strategy proposed by General McChrystal and endorsed by Gen. It would draw us into a numbers game without definable criteria. commit it to the improvement of the lives of its people. and recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize. It remains to be seen to what extent the achievements of the surge in Iraq will be sustained there politically. not a global. as a candidate. American political scientist. diplomat. implies a surge testing the patience of the American public. at a minimum. In Vietnam. A seemingly unavoidable paradox emerges. by a coalition of local feudal or semifeudal rulers. the guerrillas often ceded control of the territory during the day and returned at night to prevent political stabilization. The military strategy proposed by Generals McChrystal and Petraeus needs. The most unambiguous form of exit strategy is victory. to be given a broader context with particular emphasis on the political environment. after a while. served as National Security Advisor and later concurrently as Secretary of State in the administrations of Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford. the reversal of a process introduced with sweeping visions by two administrations may lead to chaos. with our training. the probable target should a collapse in Afghanistan give jihad an even greater impetus. A sudden reversal of American policy would fundamentally affect domestic stability in Pakistan by freeing the Qaeda forces along the Afghan border for even deeper incursions into Pakistan. it would be widely interpreted as the first step toward withdrawal. in return for not challenging the Taliban in the governance of Afghanistan. a metaphor for withdrawal. Newsweek. Hence the defeat of Al Qaeda and radical Islamic jihad should be the dominant priority. Those in the chain of command in Afghanistan. This is not to exclude the possibility of defections from the Taliban as occurred from Al Qaeda in Iraq's Anbar province. for it is highly improbable that the civic actions on which our policies are based could be carried out in areas controlled by the Taliban. Can a civil society be built on a national basis in a country which is neither a nation nor a state? In a partly feudal. Congress terminated an American role even after all our troops had. and withdrawal that is not accompanied by a willingness to sustain the outcome amounts to abandonment. where American troops have remained since 1953. is a local. regardless of its ideological coloration and perhaps even its efficiency. Al Qaeda and the Taliban are unlikely to be able to be separated so neatly geographically. he has shown considerable courage in implementing his promise to increase our forces in Afghanistan and to pursue the war more energetically. multiethnic society. proclaimed Afghanistan a necessary war. even that may not permit troop withdrawals. A negotiation with the group might isolate Al Qaeda and lead to its defeat.S. not as a way to avoid it. But the strategy of the guerrilla--described by Mao--is to draw the adversary into a morass of popular resistance in which. been withdrawn for two years. To adopt such a course is a disguised way of retreating from Afghanistan altogether. In the past. That. Therefore.com Thursday File Link – Afghanistan Withdrawal requires huge diplomatic efforts to reassure stakeholders in the region.
Wisner drew a parallel between the current situation in Afghanistan and U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 37/148 Cross-X. In all previous American ground-combat efforts.org. no other country had the combination of resources or national interest required. perhaps unrelatable to the rhythm of our electoral processes.html) Obama authorized sending another 17. Concurrently. http://www. Russia. “U.com/2009/02/21/war-afghanistan-troops-opinions-columnists_obama.S. in many respects. CNN. 2003 [Nikola. and NATO troops. China. “Sources: Cell phone images alter course of Afghan probe“. "Our credibility as a peacekeeper. Each has chosen.globalsecurity. What does the public have to say about the situation in Afghanistan? Is public opinion turning against the "good" war? Can we expect help from our European allies? And what do Afghans have to say about conditions on the ground? U.S.S. This would also enhance our political flexibility. even Iran by the fundamentalist Sunni Taliban. those responses were 69% . GlobalSecurity. troops to Afghanistan to "stabilize a deteriorating situation. who heads the U. For the foreseeable future.S. Answering a Pew Research Center question from January. And with them. Pulling troops out of Afghanistan will delay other priorities – Afghanistan wants us to stay and will prolong negotiations Bowman 9 (Karlyn. If we can't get it right in Afghanistan. Policy failure will devastate US negotiating credibility.civilians/. Each is threatened in one way or another and. The president also ordered a review of policies in Afghanistan to be completed before April's NATO summit. Withdrawal requires SOFA negotiations.which include U. 64% of respondents said the U. our credibility as a force for stability.” http://www." Wisner said.com Thursday File social reform is a long process. http://www. President Barack requested by General David McKiernan. More emphasis needs to be given to regional efforts and regional militia. A major effort is needed to encourage such an evolution. It says any further security deterioration in Afghanistan will have far-reaching implications for U. while 25% said the country had made the wrong decision.S.htm] But the independent panel's report calls for more. China by fundamentalist Shiite jihadists in Xinjiang. support for the mission remains robust.org/military/library/news/2003/06/mil-030620-rfel-161133. more than we are by the emergence of a base for international terrorism: Pakistan by Al Qaeda. 2008 [Barbara Starr. The council also asked that the ministry es demand After the the international forces halt airstrikes on civilian targets.these points of credibility are all at issue. The special aspect of Afghanistan is that it has powerful neighbors or near neighbors--Pakistan. Afghanistan's Council of Ministers called on the Defense and Foreign Affairs ministries to start negotiating a "status of forces" agreement with international forces -.S. 23 February. our credibility as a mobilizer of international coalitions when crises are reached and if we don't succeed and get it right in Afghanistan -. On August 25. our credibility as a warrior against terror. as well as house searches not coordinated with Afghan authorities and the illegal detention of civilians. so far. a serious diplomatic effort is needed to address the major anomaly of the Afghan war. it's going to be a lot harder to convince others to work with us to get it right in Iraq. India.cnn. the control from Kabul may be tenuous and its structure less than ideal. ministers demanded a review of international troops within its borders. In January 2006. foreign policy and will undermine the global position of Washington as a peacekeeper. but it was more than some of Obama's anti-war supporters would have liked.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/09/08/afghan. “War In Afghanistan”.S. once the decision was taken.000 troops Last week. I'll suggest as well is our ability to look forward to the kind of exit from Iraq that we as Americans would want to achieve at a certain point. Krastev.forbes. India by general jihadism and specific terror groups." The deployment fell short of the 30. Each has substantial capacities for defending its interests. Russia by unrest in the Muslim south. to stand more or less aloof.000 U. 9-8] Afghan government concluded its investigation. Forbes. there was no alternative to America's leading the effort.: Panel Urges Increased Support For Afghan Government. Iran. peace efforts in Iraq. and NATO command there. where he is expected to ask allies for more help. made the right decision to use military force there.S.
Questions about troop levels asked by three major U. Americans were more positive about the military effort in Iraq than they were about that in Afghanistan. however. views about how the war is going have deteriorated.S. only 28% gave that response. by August 2008. about helping train the Afghan police forces or combat troops. military forces in their country. 52% do now).) Sixty-three percent support the presence of U. with the BBC and ARD German TV. and the U. slightly fewer--28% and 29%. 18% of Afghans fourth survey of opinion of Afghans.S. A strong plurality. should increase the number of troops in Afghanistan. 76% said it was going very or somewhat well for the U. In its ABC News.S. (Drug traffickers were a distant second. in answer to another question. nearly half of Democrats surveyed (48%) wanted to reduce U. In Europe.S. respectively--said the number should be decreased.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 38/148 Cross-X. just 30% of Europeans expressed support. was winning in Afghanistan.S. Fifty-eight percent of Afghans said the greatest danger their country faces is the resurgence of the Taliban. They were less enthusiastic. In a December 2008 CNN/Opinion Research Corp. the 2007 Transatlantic Trends/German Marshall Fund survey found 64% of Europeans supported international reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan. pollsters in mid January show that around one-third of Americans believe the U. though. Hamid Karzai (83% deemed him excellent or good in 2005. survey question. When asked about conducting combat operations against the Taliban. at 13%. a figure down from 78% in 2006. Obama's popularity on the continent is unlikely to trump its residents' pacifism. war is necessary to obtain justice.S. found a sharp deterioration in views of Afghanistan's president. 60% said it was not. respectively. said coalition forces should withdraw only after security has been restored.com Thursday File and 20%. government (68% called it excellent or good in 2005. In another question. At the same time. while 44% wanted to cut the numbers. So when it comes to getting additional combat support from Europe. In a March 2003 CBS News/New York Times poll. In CBS News/New York Times and ABC News/Washington Post polls. In Pew's poll. In the same poll.S. wanted to increase U. In Pew's January 2009 poll. 32% do now). Transatlantic Trends found that more than 70% of respondents in the five European countries with the most troops in Afghanistan supported providing security for economic reconstruction projects and for helping to stem narcotics production..S. 30% of Europeans agreed that "under some conditions. . 36% said the U. military presence." Comment On This Story In 2008. and NATO/ISAF troops in their country.
indeed overwhelmingly. and their support structure should be physically positioned according to the logic of global geography is very appealing.S. the Philippines. and bilateral security treaties with Japan.A. Rumsfeld took on this monumental management task. A global posture realignment that involves moving large numbers of those sentries and their weapons inevitably begs the most urgent of security questions. is noteworthy.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 39/148 Cross-X. the decision to embark on a global realignment was the president’s to make. political in terms of its effect on the rest of the world.D. directly to the point of engagement. Bloomfield previously served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (1992-93).S. These are national commitments. and an annual budget now surpassing $400 billion. this initiative is inescapably. the Rio Treaty.” Chapter 3: Politics and Diplomacy of the Global Defense Posture Review. and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs (1988-89) among other policy positions in the Defense Department dating to 1981. if not in monetary terms certainly in the ability of a finite force structure to deliver the maximum military benefit through the greater efficiencies and capabilities of the new global posture. armed forces standing the watch in almost every latitude and time zone has calmed regional rivalries and dissuaded armed escalations for sixty years. and the promulgation of defense and security strategies to prepare for and deter threats to the national interest. An Ambitious Concept The idea that U. air. military’s posture at home and abroad according to a rational design reflecting contemporary security conditions should stand as a positive mark in his legacy. and reposition the U. Big Decision: Getting to “Yes” What with the profound implications of a posture change for allied countries hosting U. and the sight of U. forces and the state of America’s diplomatic relations with them. or reconfiguration of an organizational empire that includes well over two million soldiers and civilians. He graduated from Harvard College and received a M. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. would inevitably make their voices heard before the Department of Defense’s new scheme based on geographic convenience and logistical efficiency could supplant longstanding basing patterns in foreign localities. never mind foreign policy .S. Conceptually. One could well imagine the Pentagon’s potential misgivings about placing this hugely ambitious venture at the mercy of other departments. approximately five thousand facilities spread all over the country and the world. assets.com Thursday File Links – Asia Reducing military presence prompts State Department intervention – focuses diplomatic efforts on minimizing effects of the aff. certainly none of his predecessors seriously attempted it. that America is committed—via the North Atlantic Treaty. braving the predictable resistance of settled constituencies from one end of the globe to the other. redesign. That he did it during wartime is extraordinary. globally managed force posture would optimize the flow of combat power along sea.edu/Publications/Naval-War-CollegePress/Newport-Papers/Documents/26-pdf. Former US Special Envoy for Man-Portable Air Defense Systems Threat Reduction. resident in allied populations in more than fifty countries by latest count. At the same time. Thailand. solemnly made. and Australia— to come to their defense in extremis. and Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs from 2001-2005. and therefore runs the risk. 2006 [Lincoln. depending on how the matter is handled. his determination to rethink. Mr. Such a concept would best allow future presidents to position viable military options to employ anywhere in response to a sudden danger on the shortest of notice. For all the calculations of greater efficiency and utility that commend the idea of reconfiguring America’s global military footprint. Of all of Donald Rumsfeld’s actions during his headline-filled second tenure as secretary of defense. and the allied governments themselves. the fielding of powerful and complex weapons systems. The Global Defense Posture Review (GDPR) is such an undertaking. “Reposturing the Force: U.S.S. military force units. That Mr. of perturbing the very stability that America’s global military presence is meant to ensure. their equipment. To think otherwise would be to overlook the belief. and land routes from one region to the next.usnwc. Bloomfield. excites foreign anxieties in many quarters. an efficiently designed. Over the long term. a well-executed streamlining of the U. global defense posture could profit the nation’s security.L. http://www. The Department of State. streamlining. their facilities. Rarely to be found among these major tasks will be any large-scale updating.S. without overly taxing the system. and it embodied major foreign policy equities. Korea. Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for National Security Affairs (1991-92). Big Change. and funding allotted to his department. even when the nature and location of the crisis had not been foreseen. this massive exercise in managerial housekeeping by the secretary of defense cannot be viewed exclusively as one cabinet executive’s effort to make more productive use of the people. Overseas Presence in the Twenty-first Century.aspx] An Ambitious Concept When historians look back on the Defense Department’s biggest undertakings during its first six decades of existence. they will of course cite the prosecution of wars both hot and cold.
however. has their concern looked more plausible.” http://www. US long-term security. The concern was not imaginary. . Specifically true for Asian withdrawals.taipeitimes. Within the U. “Managing alliances in a new world. 5-16-2010 [Walter. by their manner. whose reaction to any disturbance of the diplomatic status quo might be expected to be one of resistance to change. director of the Asian Studies Center at The Heritage Foundation. however helpful to the cause. On the other hand.S. The Obama administration needs to consider the full range of policy decisions and diplomacy in this light. Countries in the region are in the early stages of planning against that eventuality. The region wants a “resident” US. such concerns were not limited to experienced regional specialists in the State Department. The future of US alliances and. At no time since the administration of former US president Jimmy Carter. Lohman. by extension.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. might aggravate rather than defuse foreign anxieties were also not entirely misplaced. It is even good for the Chinese themselves. Taipei Times. It wants a strong US. In at least one country DoD doggedly sought to announce and implement a drawdown of military assets against that ally’s wishes and with an evident relish that required diplomatic damage control and led the president to withhold to himself the withdrawal decision. policy bureaucracy as a whole. They need reassurance. will not fill the gap alone. indeed opposition. even to discussing prospective force reductions with allied countries. because it precludes some of the most aggressive scenarios in their own development. concerns in the State Department that some Department of Defense (DoD) officials.com/News/editorials/archives/2010/05/16/2003473110] US allies in Asia and friends who depend on them have long wrung their hands at the prospect of US withdrawal. there were indeed some in the State Department who wanted nothing more than for the initiative to go away and who feared damage to alliances if it went forward. All the trips to the region and speeches in the world. depends on it. there were varying perceptions about whether the advertised merits of particular changes under the Global Defense Posture Review would indeed redound to the long-term security benefit of the United States.com 40/148 Thursday File bureaucrats.
with its review of the Futenma relocation plan. caught between increasing public opposition to US troops and its crucial military alliance with Washington. Mizuho Fukushima. a minister in Hatoyama's cabinet.html) US assistant secretary of state for East Asia is due to arrive in Tokyo on Monday for talks on the future visit comes after thousands of people from across Japan joined protests at the weekend against plans to relocate a US base on the southern island of Okinawa. . just before national elections. Decision postponed However.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 41/148 Cross-X. pacifists. with members of his coalition government calling for all US troops to leave Japan. under a banner that read "Change! Japan-U. They gathered for a rally at a park. The of American military bases in Japan.aljazeera. opposition to the US-Japan pact is growing louder. pollution and crime around the bases. as thousands marched through central Tokyo on Saturday. Labor unionists. Al Jazeera 10 (1 February 2010.S. environmentalists and students called for an end to the US troop presence. At a rally against the base. In 2006. with more than half on the island. Local residents have long complained about noise. a cabinet minister. Relations". Some 47. led by prime minister Yukio Hatoyama. But the issue is a difficult one for the prime minister to juggle. “US envoy to discuss Japan bases”. Campbell also reiterated Washington's desire to see that the US Marine Corps Air Station at Futenma be transferred to another area on the island by 2014. Campbell said the alliance with Japan was a "cornerstone" of the US engagement in Asia. told a crowd protesters that she wants to see the Okinawa base closed and US troops moved out of Japan entirely. Kurt Campbell's 'Cornerstone' alliance Mizuho Fukushima. But the newly elected Japanese government is re-examining the deal.000 US troops are stationed in Japan. called for the removal of the US base [Reuters] Last month Campbell called on Japan to stick to the 2006 deal and relocate the US Futenma air base in Okinawa. Hatoyama has repeatedly postponed his decision on the pact. with members of his own government divided on how to proceed. In written testimony before a Senate Foreign Relations Committee subcommittee on January 21. he pledged to resolve the issue by May. He said the US is assisting the Japanese government.com Thursday File Link – Japan Renegotiating the SOFA will be costly – internal political struggles in Japan will prevent quick passage of the plan. Last week. the two countries signed a pact that called for the realignment of American troops in the country and for a marine base on the island to be moved to a less populated area. http://english. Meanwhile.net/news/asia-pacific/2010/02/20102133033203868.
Acc. Remembering that the United nuclear threat. the decision is worthy of delay. We We need to exercise similar wisdom. Successfully exercising soft power in the alliance means that the United States should win over South Koreans by paying careful attention to what they believe. The vast majority of South Koreans don't question the authenticity of the professional judgment of the U. Simply because the North Korean military is most delighted to see the OPCON transfer and the CFC dissolution. Some even think that Washington is ready to accept the DPRK as a nuclear state as long as it is not committed to proliferation. military. spreading quiet ripple effects on Korean society. Korean WMD attack. “Transfer of troop control: A Bush legacy. there was an auspicious example in this regard.com Thursday File Link – South Korea Plan unpopular: Public wants US troops to stay until North Korea denuclearizes Cheon 09 [Seong-whun.do? docLinkInd=true&risb=21_T9622716431&format=GNBFI&sort=RELEVANCE&startDocNo=1&resu ltsUrlKey=29_T9622562285&cisb=22_T9622716436&treeMax=true&treeWidth=0&csi=158208& docNo=1] The South Korean public was perplexed at the gushing of official reports and remarks from the United States. Using soft power is the ability to attract the South Korean people to the American side. Recently. Writer for the Korea Herald. 6/24/10 through LexisNexis. That is priority number one of the alliance at this juncture.at this moment.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 42/148 Cross-X. couldn't we postpone the decision until at least denuclearization of North Korea is completed? The OPCON transfer and the CFC dissolution is not a simple military issue but a complicated matter where hard power and soft power are combined. Their insufficient knowledge of the North Korean nuclear threat largely results from deliberate propaganda of the Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun administrations. He also sent a delegation to express his condolences to the family of Kim. General Sharp sent USFK officials at Incheon Airport to receive the remains of Kim Suk-im who died when an American jet fighter crashed into her San Diego home last December. They manufactured a false sense of peace and security while intentionally ignoring or making little of the Still. South Koreans question whether it is right to implement the decision the OPCON transfer and the CFC dissolution .com/us/lnacademic/results/docview/docview. 1/23/09. . Concerning the unpreparedness of the ROK military against a North they ask.” Korea Herald. http://www. States saved their country from North Korean aggression and also is the only foreign country the ROK has ever fought for in the history of Korea.S. they question what the alliance is all about. His decision is in full harmony with Korean culture and emotion. should not send any hint of a wrong signal to Kim Jong-il.lexisnexis.
” 2-27.com/World/Global-News/2009/0227/troop-withdrawal-obama-to-end-iraqwar-by-august-201] Another challenge of the withdrawal is how to move the significant amount of equipment now in Iraq. 2009 [Christa Case. patrolling with Iraqi troops and the Kurdish peshmerga along the disputed Green Line separating Iraq proper from the Kurdish regional government. but that will only be possible after what is sure to be a protracted and tortuous negotiation with the new Iraqi government. If the new government isn't seated until the end of this year. 10-15. the billions of dollars spent and the thousands of lives lost could be for nothing” Los Angeles Times. which have grown in size and competence but still aren't capable of defending their airspace or performing other vital functions. which the Monitor recently tallied to include: 60. troops out of Iraq. CSM. But Iraqi politicians now expect that no government will emerge before the fall. SOFA goes til 2011 – withdrawing ahead of schedule means we’d have to negotiate a new one.google. a US military presence is allowed for up to three more years. U. AFP. The Iraqi-American security accord negotiated by the George W. Kurdish politicians I met in Irbil warned that if Iraqi-Kurdish land disputes aren't resolved by the end of 2011 (and odds are they won't be). Bush administration called for the departure of all our soldiers by the end of 2011.remain to ensure that those weapons are never used against our Kurdish allies. If the US doesn’t address Maliki’s postelection moves. One option might be to send some personnel and equipment via Turkey. That takes tons of diplomatic resources.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 43/148 Cross-X. “Troop withdrawal: Obama to end Iraq war by August 2010.say 10. and 150. there is a serious danger of war breaking out once American troops leave. In keeping with the deal.S. http://afp. Lexis] Obama's overriding objective is to pull U. It is all the more important that an American buffer -.csmonitor.000 by September. The last American-Iraqi security accord took a year to negotiate.000 troops – a bigger number than Democrats were expecting – will leave by 2011. Iraq still negotiating troop presence deal”. American officials expected that postelection jockeying would end by June at the latest. http://www. and Obama’s plan now indicates an earlier withdrawal of the bulk of the troops by August 2010. Large troop reductions at a time of such political uncertainty will send a dangerous signal of disengagement and lessen America's ability to preserve the integrity of the elections. Boot. Thus the Iraqi and American timelines are dangerously out of sync.000 aircraft and vehicles. where the two-lane Habur Gate crossing has been used quietly as a way to move supplies. troops also play a vital peacekeeping role. Obama promised today that the remaining 50.000 to 15.S.S. officers in Iraq are right now implementing plans to draw down our troops to zero by the end of 2011. They hope that some forces will be permitted to remain. Bryant. a US-Iraqi deal settled on at the end of 2008. But US units are supposed to draw back from Iraqi cities to US bases by this summer. 5-9-2010 [Max. According to the Status of Forces Agreement. Yet U. it will be extremely difficult to conclude a treaty by the end of next year. Obama added a new twist by ordering that troop strength be cut from the current 95. The delay in seating a government also endangers the possible negotiation of a fresh accord to govern Iraqi-American relations after 2011.000 trailer-sized containers.000 private contractors from nearly 50 bases and installations. “There’s still time to lose in Iraq.com/article/ALeqM5gXdwNmi_OvQcfCpWQ1s38VB-egqw] . The possibility of miscalculation will grow once the Iraqi armed forces acquire the M-1 tanks and F-16 fighters that we have agreed to sell them.com Thursday File Link – Iraq Troop drawdown in Iraq will take years of intense negotiations. 5-9. Senior fellow in national security studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and contributing editor to the opinion section of Los Angeles Times. 120.000 to 50.000 troops -. It is vital to have a continuing American military presence to train That should be no surprise considering that President and advise Iraqi security forces. 2008 [“US. The presumption was that the drawdown would occur after Iraq had installed a new government.
" the White House said. officials have been working in fits and starts on a formal Status of Forces Agreement to provide a legal basis for U. MSNBC. the White House said "the goals would be based on continued improving conditions on the ground and not an arbitrary date for withdrawal. such as pressures from Iran. US Defense Secretary Robert Gates said he was "actually reasonably optimistic we will come to closure on this in a very near future. The U. Iraq has proposed requiring U.S. troop cuts." State Department spokesman Sean McCormack told reporters." Iraqi and U. forces to withdraw fully five years after the Iraqis take the lead on security nationwide. withdrawal. but not in turmoil. http://www. But they have differed over some issues such as granting immunity to US soldiers for acts committed in Iraq. VOA. combat forces out of Iraq by the end of August of next year.S. In the closest the Bush administration has come to acknowledging the WASHINGTON .” 7-18. the president and the prime minister agreed that improving conditions should allow for the agreements now under negotiation to include a general time horizon for meeting aspirational goals — such as the resumption of Iraqi security control in their cities and provinces and the further reduction of U. among [other things] amending the Constitution. he said. dubbed the Status of Forces Agreement. 2009 [Dan.” 9-18. Upon returning from a trip to Europe last week. Maliki had recently suggested a timetable be set for U. He declined to say whether the two sides were even close to a deal. “Iraqi Politicians Urge Cautious US Military Withdrawal.S.michaelmoore. whether Washington has the right to detain Iraqi prisoners and on the future command of military operations on the ground. Everything isn't done. is to put in place a deal for the future status of US troops in Iraq after the UN Security Council mandate for the multinational force expires on December 31. instituting an inclusive political process and implementing political and national reconciliation. "The implementation of [the] political reform act as passed by Parliament in 2008 is a must. Withdrawal requires negotiation with Iraqi government. http://www. yet these steps are very necessary for the stabilization of Iraq.html] Former Iraqi Prime Minister Allawi said the United States and Iraq have similar goals. I . Robinson. that could cause problems during and after the elections.com/words/latest-news/us-iraq-seek-troop-withdrawal-time-horizon] Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki have agreed that a security deal under negotiation should set a "time horizon" for meeting "aspirational goals" for reducing U." The accord. officials have been much more cautious despite an improving security situation. Saying the United States withdrawal should be "moral and responsible. wants to leave Iraq. while Iraq seeks a path of prosperity and sovereignty where individual and minority rights are respected. The Iraqis are still talking among themselves. the White House said Friday. Iraq seek troop withdrawal 'time horizon'. None of these steps has been acted upon. both Allawi and parliament member Saleh al-Mutlaq pointed to political. The act includes.S. Both US and Iraqi leaders have stressed that a deal is in the works.." Iraqi parliament member Saleh al-Mutlaq said the only way to ensure free and fair elections in his country is with a commitment by the U. Iraqi government opposes immediate withdrawal before stability – diplomatic investments necessary in the absence of presence. President Barack Obama has ordered all U.com/VOA_Standard_English/VOA_Standard_English_33702.S. forces in Iraq.S.51voa.President likelihood of some kind of timetable for future U. and United Nations for thorough monitoring. But. troops to remain when an U." he said. We are still talking to the Iraqis. Allawi said Iraq's military remains unable to shoulder the security burden. "Nothing is done until everything is done.S. And he said oustanding political and constitutional issues are also giving rise to severe tensions.S.S. forces gone by the end of 2011. The deal was originally set to be signed in July. And. but U. sectarian and other problems as well as external factors.N. combat forces from Iraq.S. and all U. "Without this monitoring. but that condition could take years to meet.S. mandate expires at the end of the year.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.S. but has been held up by the ongoing negotiations. 2008 [“U.com 44/148 Thursday File WASHINGTON (AFP) — The United States and Iraq are still negotiating the terms of an agreement on the future presence of US troops in Iraq next year. While Iraqis know the United States will be withdrawing its military forces. senior US officials said Wednesday.S. "In the area of security cooperation.
2-6. it didn't work. and instead attended an economic summit in Kuwait. 2-17. not only for Iraq's future but for the region. Pointing to questions about the legitimacy of the recent election in Afghanistan." he said." Gates told a U. 2009 [Haro. Plus." he said. tensions. an Iraqi Kurd. warned that sectarianism in Iraq might worsen in the run-up to the elections. Within the Arab world. withdrawing before stability devastates negotiating credibility. we have our vested interests and can make our own decisions. presence in Iraq also will be part of the negotiations. In his testimony to the subcommittee. On the final day of a visit to Iraq. part of which was established in a Status of Forces Agreement reached during the Bush administration. that's a key issue. "We do not want." the foreign minister said. has a moral responsibility and national security interest in ensuring fraud-free elections in Iraq. More ev – SOFAs." Zebari said Baghdad's often troubled ties with Damascus had "improved a great deal" . House of Representatives committee. The United States. Congress to the United Nations.' So this isn't just simply about supporting the Iraqi people and democracy in Iraq.reuters. In his testimony Thursday.S. "Sectarianism. with economic issues high on the agenda. Delahunt said he will use consultations in New York next week to generate support for international monitoring of the Iraqi elections. Kenneth Katzman. outmaneuver and constrain rival factions. also pointed to Baghdad's good ties with Tehran. staff writer for Agence French Presse. The agreement will set the rules and legal protections under which U. government performance.com/index. said a large international observer presence is required before and during the vote.S. he said. Reuters. "The impression has completely changed. Zebari pointed to the opening of several Arab embassies in Baghdad and to the expected stream of diplomatic visits. 2008 [Kristin. former Iraqi Prime Minister Allawi voiced concern about what he called "reversals in security" after a fragile period of improvement. “Iraq Sheds US Puppet in its Own Backyard. permanent The United States and Iraq have agreed to start formal negotiations about their future relationship with the goal of finishing an accord by the end of July." in contrast to other countries where it would have been a state secret. a specialist in Middle East Affairs with the Congressional Research Service.S. "We are thinking of reopening our [oil] pipeline through Syria to the Mediterranean. that our people are going to be targeted. forces operate in Iraq. “Gates: US won't promise to defend Iraq in accord”. referring to the loss of diplomatic credibility after the US-led invasion of March 2003 that toppled Saddam Hussein. "Syria's prime minister and foreign minister are coming over soon. which should include not only the deployment of U. "If the election in January is unsuccessful." he later told a U.S." he said. the subcommittee Chairman. our continued engagement despite their negativism. the arch-foe of Washington ever since matter what the differences between the United States and a neighbouring country. the [long-delayed] oil law. bases in Iraq.. the assassinations are already there." he said. referring to the scepticism of nearby countries. For Baghdad. 'We tried it once. Gen.S. adorned with a plush Persian carpet." he said.jordantimes. Katzman said sectarian tensions could reach a peak as Iraqis decide whether to hold a referendum on the U. Iraq had also taken a stand last month by staying away from a meeting of leaders in Qatar meant to shore up support for Hamas over the Gaza crisis. forces. but the impact electoral problems in Iraq could have on the American public support for U. nor will we seek." he said.S.php?news=14364&searchFor=Iran] "We have political problems.S. but a strong United Nations involvement. "All this has sent the right signals.com/article/idUSN06442345] "The status-of-forces agreement that is being discussed will not contain a commitment to defend Iraq and neither will any strategic framework agreement. in parliament. over our constitutional reforms. in the media. has said. Staff Writer. And look what happened. military presence. "these are part of the reconciliation" process in the warthe 1979 Islamic revolution. especially after this agreement with the US and the way we debated it. And we have been getting so many warnings that we are going to be targeted. stressing that Iraq's neighbours were now taking it seriously. Democratic Representative William Delahunt.” http://www. It's about Afghanistan and I dare say it's about the entire region. "It used to be that way. The size of the long-term U. withdrawal schedule. http://www. "We have proven that no battered country." he said in his office. Roberts. and ethnic and factional infighting continue to simmer.S. The Democratic representative of the U. support here in this country for involvement in Afghanistan will diminish because the American people will be saying. Chakmakijan. he said. And many Iraqis' views and positions are colored by efforts to outflank.S. The intimidation is already there. Lt. along with an upsurge in sectarian tensions. Vice President Joe Biden said on Thursday the United States will abide by any decisions by the Iraqi people on the U. policy in Afghanistan. U. the White House deputy national security adviser.S. Zebari.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 45/148 Cross-X.. Senate panel. Calling the elections critical.com Thursday File believe that the election will be the same as happened before. as another example of Iraq's ability to stand on its own two feet. Douglas Lute. Delahunt worries not only about a deterioration in Iraq.
I think. Iraq cannot be allowed to revert to an unstable state of sectarian strife. associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University . ForeignPolicy. citing Tehran's strong opposition to the security pact with Washington. with which Iraq has had troubled ties for decades. a stable energy supply. Sheikh Mohammad Sabah Al Salim Al Sabah. even the chances of success in the Israeli-Palestinian issue Renegotiating SOFAs for troop withdrawal requires considerable diplomatic capital – Iraq proves. http://www. demarcation of borders and the billions of dollars in war reparation claims will be among the thorny issues on the agenda. Rather than simply denounce everything Republican. "We are trying to formalise relations with them through embassies. troops. While I have long supported the withdrawal of U. “Editorial: How Iraq can fortify its fragile democracy." he said. It demonstrated a pragmatism and willingness to put the national interest ahead of partisanship that few of us believed he possessed.S. to have a protocol of dealing with each other. of Iraq asserting more independence. he acknowledged Shiite Iran was influential in the new Iraq. "We told them this is a sovereign Iraqi decision. not the surge”. They haven't stopped but the Syrians have taken a number of measures. it would also put at risk every U. Vice President Biden recently said that the United States was “going to be able to keep our commitment” to reduce troop levels in Iraq to 50. soldiers who sacrificed their lives. and international policy priority in the region — the planned troop withdrawals. "We have come a long. which finished first in votes in Iraq’s national elections in March.com/2010/06/12/editorial-how-iraqcan-fortify-its-fragile-democracy/] we hope that the United States and the United Nations will help bring Iraq’s political blocs together to achieve a government in the national interest. said Zebari. that is wrong. He served as prime minister from 2004 to 2005. through official channels. dominated by regional influences.uniquely echoing a thousand recent op-eds -was President Bush's finest moment. “Bush's finest moment on Iraq: SOFA.perhaps we could have another round of arguments as to whether the surge brigades arriving in the spring of 2007 caused the Sunni turn against al-Qaeda in the fall of 2006? But in the interests of post-partisanship. "They took that as a sign." With Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki's visit last week . "They have influence. I have a hard time imagining anything as tedious as rehashing those tired debates from the campaign about the "surge" -.to be followed. "There are less infiltrators coming from the Syrian border. long way with them. by Iran's former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani the two sides are placing their diplomatic ties on a new footing. But our attitude [now] is to deal with each other as two sovereign countries.. to Baghdad for the first time. leader of the Iraqiya List.foreignpolicy. largely thanks to Bush's acceptance of his own bargaining failure that Barack Obama will inherit a plausible route to successful . Democrats should admit that the "surge" worked and -. Allawi. Moreover.yalibnan. Lynch Professor Political Science 09 (Marc. Joint oil fields." Turning to Tehran.com/posts/2009/01/18/sofa_not_the_surge) Peter Beinart today bravely repeats the emerging would-be conventional wisdom. 10 [Ayad. Washington still has unrivaled leverage in Iraq. Such an outcome would insult the tens of thousands of Iraqi civilians whose lives were stolen in terrorist attacks and the thousands of U. It is willing to offer an alternative as Bush's finest hour in Iraq: the Status of Forces Agreement.S. http://lynch.. no. I have to be honest.S." said Zebari." the minister said. as well as a moral responsibility to the Iraqi people whom it freed from tyranny to do all it can to deliver sustainable peace and stability.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 46/148 Cross-X. I am Signing a Status of Forces Agreement requiring the full withdrawal of U.com Thursday File following their opening of embassies in late 2006. "To say that they dictate to us. to help shield our fragile democracy from foreign interference and forces that wish to undermine democracy.” YaLibnan.000 by this summer. Even Kuwait. through consulates. I sincerely hope that the United States will remain actively engaged in Iraq." he said. 28 January 2009..S. military forces from Iraq on a fixed three year timeline demonstrated a real flexibility on Bush's part." Zebari said. Renegotiating the SOFA for a rapid withdrawal will demand large amounts of attention – Allawi wants US troops to stay for legitimacy and will delay negotiations. he argues. nuclear containment. Zebari contrasted the approach to the individual contacts dating back to the days of opposition to Saddam's regime when many of today's leaders of Iraq were exiled in Iran. where the Shiite majority is dominant. who has served as foreign minister since Iraq's first post-invasion administration. is sending its deputy premier and foreign minister. and secondly they felt that this will backfire on them. culminating in Saddam's 1990 invasion.
So what have we achieved? And there are more Iraqi civilians being killed every day. and there is no end in sight. and political wrangling going on inside Iraq. But it also reflected Iraqi domestic considerations. troops entirely contingent upon American assessments of conditions on the ground. the Iraqi leaders clearly kept a careful eye on the American Presidential elections and used Obama's stance to strengthen their own hand in negotiations. .style conditions-based aspirational time frame for U. There were widespread discussions of permanent U. forces in three years. and God willing will never be used.S.com Thursday File disengagement from Iraq. But he didn't. took a hard line in the negotiations. We have so messed up that country that I’m not sure even a democratic president can solve it. We didn’t even have enough troops to secure the arsenals and armories so that the terrorists just robbed all of those weapons. When negotiations began. And here's where I will offer some sincere praise for Bush and his team. Conservatives now like to claim the SOFA as a "Bush-negotiated" success. Obama can now work closely with the Iraqi government in managing the drawdown instead of spending his first months in office trying to wriggle out of an unacceptable deal. and not the surge. . Bush agreed to the Obama-style timeline for U. Women in . . than they have now when the United States put the Shiia in power. This would have fit with his administration's often-repeated preferences. They used to be killed every day by stray American bombs. . he hedged -. no permanent bases -. But we have stretched thin our conventional forces in a foolish. pointless. And what have we achieved? Saddam Hussein is gone. an assumption that the U.S.S. but we don’t have democracy there. endless invasion and occupation of Iraq. Former Special Counsel to Pres.S. It’s the stupidest blunder in American foreign policy history. Finally. .S. the December 31 deadline loomed large. Iraq inevitably devastates capital – withdrawal can’t help. http://bigthink. He could have continued to push for this conception closer to the December 31 deadline. . Their tough line was encouraged by Iran. And it’s . occupation under any name. he was an evil man. and Iraq and agreed to a SOFA which far more closely matched Obama's avowed vision for Iraq -. To his credit. would retain a free hand in its operations. withdrawal from Iraq.S. And this.than his own. The Iraqis were also helped by the calender. . and an absolute rejection of an Obama- Iraqi leaders. We didn’t even have enough troops to secure the borders and keep the terrorists from pouring in from other countries. there will still be bloodshed. But elections and an intensely strong popular Iraqi hostility to the U. playing high-stakes chicken at the expense of American military planning for the coming year and at the risk of the Iraqi political system not having adequate time to ratify the deal. When the Iraqis insisted on an Obama-style timeline for U. who was secular. I don’t believe that with the United States having taken the lid off Pandora’s box . Yes. “Has the Iraq War depleted our military and diplomatic capital?” 5-22. was in charge than they .S. bases and a Korea-style presence for generations. And thus I offer Bush's willingness to sign the SOFA mandating U. as stressed by many frustrated American commentators.com/ideas/1085] Question: Has the Iraq War depleted our military and diplomatic capital? Ted Sorensen: We haven’t spent it all. troops without any legal mandate to remain in the country and forcing the hand of American negotiators. Granted. to most everyone's surprise. he could have insisted on the latter. But at that point he bowed to the political realities in the U. . is among the reasons why Robert Gates will continue as Secretary of Defense. And they’re now being used against American troops.S. Sorenson. but now they’re killed today by other Iraqis. withdrawal instead of a Bush/McCain. As negotiations dragged on.he didn't authorize Ambassador Ryan Crocker to sign off on the deal until after the Presidential election (on November 18).withdrawal of U.S. or stay for 50 months or weeks. withdrawal. and violence. Iraqi women probably have fewer rights today than they had women Saddam Hussein. But Bush entered the U. The Cross-X. Kennedy.S. and sectarian killings. Whether we stay for 50 years as John McCain may be necessary like Korea. threatening to leave the U. Thanks to this pragmatism.S. no doubt. including several rounds of upcoming style timeline for withdrawal. We still have enormous stockpiles of strategic weapons that have never been used. as his finest moment in Iraq.S. withdrawal. went into the SOFA talks intent on obtaining legitimacy for a long-term military presence in Iraq once the Security Council mandate ended.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 47/148 SOFA negotiations looking for something entirely different than what emerged at the end. it was widely assumed that Bush would extract from the Iraqis an agreement which made the removal of U. 2008 [Ted. . I might speculate.
after which Turkish support for U. reductions to Russian strategic and nonstrategic nuclear arsenals also would help improve Ankara's peace of mind. Otherwise. Professor at the Naval Postgraduate School.S. The political and strategic compasses are pointing to the eventual withdrawal of nuclear weapons from Europe--it's a strategy that certainly fits the disarmament agenda President Barack Obama has outlined. nuclear weapons: improved alliance relations. This cooperation could provide the bond with Washington and perception of security that Turkey seeks in the face of a potential Iranian bomb. and foster the necessary conditions for the removal of tactical U.-Turkish relationship cooled when Turkey refused to participate in Operation Iraqi Freedom. For its part. July. nuclear weapons from Turkish soil.S. First. Turkey would obtain a stronger footing in alliance politics. security guarantees. including the U.S. This is consistent with a longstanding pattern in which most allies have deemed strategic nuclear matters a US responsibility and have deferred to US judgement about the appropriate .S. Turkey actually can play an important role in this complex process.org/web-edition/features/thestatus-of-us-nuclear-weapons-turkey] A prescription for withdrawal. Project manager at the Ploughshares Fund and a Truman National Security Fellow AND **Research assistant at the Ploughshares Fund and a graduate student at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy. Doing so requires a key factor that also is essential to paving the way toward withdrawal of U.S. Ship-based Aegis missile systems will be the backbone of the strategy. The United States and Russia soon will seek ratification of a follow-on agreement to START.S. Critically.4. Yost. 2009 [Alexandra and Benjamin. and Russian arsenals should involve forward-deployed nuclear weapons. During any such negotiations. By incorporating Ankara into its new European missile defense plans--intended to protect Turkey and other countries vulnerable to Iran's short. weapons in Turkey. “The US Nuclear Posture Review and the NATO allies. If used properly.thebulletin. And treaty negotiations in pursuit of further reductions to the U.S. The U. it would help convince Ankara (and others) of Turkey's value to NATO and have the additional benefit of pulling Ankara into a closer relationship with Washington and Brussels. Obama's election has helped to mend fences. Washington would risk compromising Turkey as a NATO ally and key regional partner.S.and intermediate-range ballistic missiles--Washington could further shore up its military relationship with Turkey.S. In fact. Empirically.-Turkish ties and to assuage Turkish security concerns. Bush administration.com Thursday File Link – TNWs TNW withdrawal costs tons of diplomatic capital. Ankara is in a position to positively influence Tehran's behavior. contain its chief security concerns. More largely. any removal of the weapons in Turkey would need to happen in concert with efforts to prevent Iran from turning its civil nuclear energy program into a military one. Ebsco] Perhaps partly because of improved relations with Russia. 11-23. Turkey must be fully confident in NATO and U. this means intense negotiations to reassure extended deterrence commitments. “The status of U. allied observers have expressed no noteworthy concerns about the effects of the NPR-mandated reductions in operationally deployed US strategic nuclear warheads on extended deterrence. Bell & Loehrke.D. and his visit to Turkey in April was warmly received.” International Affairs 80. As Princeton scholar Joshua Walker has noted. if the United States and European Union task Turkey with a bigger role in the diplomatic back-and-forth with Iran. with considerations left open for later deployments of mobile ground-based interceptors in Eastern Europe or Turkey. efforts there. Ankara's potential influence with Tehran should not be underestimated. Preventing Turkey (and any other country in the region) from acquiring nuclear weapons is critical to international security. 2004 [David S.. and the United States and its allies should seriously consider Turkish offers to serve as an interlocutor between Iran and the West. As a result. Ph. nuclear weapons in Turkey”Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists http://www. in international relations at the University of Southern California (1979). policy declined through the end of the George W.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 48/148 Cross-X. Turkey recently doubled its troop contribution to NATO's Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan--a boon to U.S. given its long-established pragmatic relations and growing economic ties with Iran. But to get there. all of the administration's positive interactions with Turkey have been beneficial: Washington has supported Turkey's role as a regional energy supplier and encouraged Ankara as it undertakes difficult political reforms and works to resolve regional diplomatic conflicts. careful diplomacy will be required to improve U. Because Russia weighs significantly in Turkish security calculations.
Japan and other beneficiaries of US nuclear guarantees. matters of national and international security are never that easy. Jones. but the crux of deterrence is sustaining an aggressor's perception of guaranteed rapid reprisal--a perception the nuclear bombs deployed in Turkey cannot significantly add to because they are unable to be rapidly launched.) Four years later. they argue that the weapons are "an essential political and military link" between NATO members and help maintain alliance cohesion. However.S. bombs located at bases in Belgium. 2-23-2010 . to defend the region against Soviet attack and to influence Soviet strategic calculations). and in some circumstances more such exceptions could occur. (In addition to the 90 B61 bombs in Turkey. In this event.S. given the risk of prompt inter. the perceived political commitment of the United States—including its manifest intentions. meaning nuclear-capable F-16s from other U. the weapons were to be fired as one of the first retaliatory shots. Aggressors are more likely to be deterred by NATO's conventional power or the larger strategic forces supporting its nuclear umbrella. some U. he was met with fierce political resistance. These doubts have been aggravated whenever Americans have expressed anxieties about US strategic capabilities— as during the ‘bomber gap’ and ‘missile gap’ controversies in the late 1950s and early 1960s. 2009 [Alexandra and Benjamin.S. But as the Cold War waned.continental nuclear retaliation from Russia.. U. James L. and its apparent confidence in the adequacy of its strategic nuclear posture—would probably matter more in reassuring allies than the size of the force and its specific characteristics. the readiness of NATO's nuclear forces now is measured in months as opposed to hours or days. Today. Such a relaxed posture makes clear just how little NATO relies on tactical nuclear weapons for its defense anymore. In 2005.e. So in effect. policy activists and politicians—as was the case in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Turkey has been a quiet custodian of U. Guardian. and forty are assigned for delivery by the Turkish Air Force. In particular. Turkey hosts an estimated 90 B61 gravity bombs at Incirlik Air Base. In the event of a Soviet assault on Europe. Bell & Loehrke.S. European doubts about America’s will to defend its allies. when NATO's top commander at the time.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. right? Unfortunately. Supposedly. and the Turkish Air Force is reportedly PDF not certified for NATO nuclear missions. there are another 110 or so U. TNW removal will meet with massive controversy – requires tons of diplomatic resources. Gen. Thus. nuclear weapons in Turkey”Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists http://www.thebulletin. did the weapons' strategic value. the weapons are still deployed as a matter of deterrence. Exceptions to this pattern have. no permanent nuclear-capable U. the United States has removed all of its intermediate-range missiles from Turkey and reduced its other nuclear weapons there through gradual redeployments and arms control agreements.org/web-edition/features/thestatus-of-us-nuclear-weapons-turkey] For more than 40 years. and the debates about SALT II. Italy. and European officials still maintain that the political value of the nuclear weapons is enough to keep them deployed across Europe. During the Cold War.S. nuclear weapons in Europe. Any Europeans inclined to be worried about the credibility of US extended deterrence in view of the constraints on US strategic nuclear forces imposed by arms control or budgetary limits would probably be influenced by interactions with US experts. Ever since the Soviet Union launched Sputnik in 1957 and developed the world’s first ICBMs.S. That means removing them from the country should be simple." Removal of TNWs strongly opposed – forces negotiations after the plan. and the Netherlands. over the last few decades. “The status of U. so. the United States is obligated to provide and maintain the nuclear weapon capability.S. fighter wing is based at Incirlik.S. the last time US policy regarding strategic nuclear forces became a significant topic in transatlantic security discussions.S. Project manager at the Ploughshares Fund and a Truman National Security Fellow AND **Research assistant at the Ploughshares Fund and a graduate student at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy. ICBM vulnerability and ‘grey area’ systems such as the Backfire bomber in the late 1970s and early 1980s. If a debate emerged in the United States about the adequacy of the US strategic force posture in the context of national security (without necessarily considering extended deterrence for allied security). tactical nuclear weapons in Turkey are without military value or purpose. Germany. Washington positioned intermediate-range nuclear missiles and bombers there to serve as a bulwark against the Soviet Union (i. too. supported the elimination of U. Roadblocks to removal. In fact. The Defense Department's 2008 report PDF on nuclear weapons management concurred: "As long as our allies value [the nuclear weapons'] political contribution. 11-23. the alliance has been subject to periodic crises of confidence—in essence. bases would need to be brought in if Turkey's bombs were ever needed. tactical nuclear weapons. however. pilots. arisen historically. Fifty of these bombs are reportedly PDF assigned for delivery by U. allied experts and officials would probably ask questions about the implications for NATO.com 49/148 Thursday File structure and level of US strategic nuclear forces.
But this has never happened. nuclear forces in Europe and nuclear sharing with Alliance partners demonstrate a shared risk within NATO and binds America to the old continent.S. however. Belgium.guardian. “Burying Nuclear Relics of the cold war” http://www. The group's word will not be final. . The function of these systems is to keep the peace and to prevent wars. which has an estimated 4.000 short-range nuclear weapons).cfm? fa=view&id=22533&prog=zgp&proj=znpp] there are a number of political reasons for not entirely foregoing U. have been silent on the issue in recent months. partly because of resistance from some former Soviet bloc states within Nato. They remain particularly interested in a strong nuclear deterrent vis-à-vis Russia and Iran. At least some NATO partners continue to value this. at least. They have been virulently opposed to the removal of the weapons which they perceive as a guarantee of a US presence in Europe against Russian aggression. the U. More ev.org/publications/index. Nato clings to the outmoded notion that the 200 or so gravity bombs in five European countries are a necessary deterrent (against Russia.carnegieendowment.co. But Not Yet”. the group of experts. last month calling for a debate on the future of the tactical weapons. Nuclear Forces in Europe to Zero? Yes. Eastern European and Baltic countries are also uneasy about removing what they see as a symbol of America's preparedness to protect them against attack. The status quo has prevailed with the US saying it is waiting for an allied request to remove the B61 bombs from Germany. nuclear forces in Europe at this point in time. Until now. http://www. nuclear presence gives those NATO members participating in nuclear sharing a greater say in nuclear decision making or. Concern over the B61 stockpile in Europe was heightened by a security breach two months ago when protesters managed to break in to an American base in Belgium where up to 20 of the bombs are thought to be stockpiled. 3-30-2010 [Julian Borger. lexis] A Nato advisory group helping to draft a new strategy for the military alliance will recommend that US nuclear bombs stay in Europe.uk/commentisfree/2010/feb/23/nato-cold-war-nuclear-relics] It's decision time for the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation.000 tactical nuclear weapons. the Netherlands. which play host to most of the B61 stockpile. Senior Fellow at German Institute for International and Security Affairs. but have quietly opposed moves to withdraw them from the US bases on their soil. Guardian. In particular. the Guardian has learned.S.S. More ev – negotiations necessary – allies oppose removal without Russian reciprocation.S. but it will significantly strengthen the hand of those in the alliance who are opposed to a German-led initiative to remove the bombs unilaterally. “U. three At the same time. In a report due on 1 May. Anders Fogh Rasmussen. "US bombs must stay in Europe.com 50/148 Thursday File [Anne Penketh. Italy and Turkey. mostly on its western flank. Moreover. In order to avoid yet another split in NATO on a crucial issue. further points need to be taken into consideration. chaired by the former US secretary of state Madeleine Albright. Thranert.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X." a member of the group said. The 11 experts will suggest that the bombs only be removed as part of a new treaty with Russia. the alliance has chosen to ignore calls for change and has eschewed public debate. and foreign ministers from the five countries delivered a letter to the Nato secretary general. more access to information. U. which has an estimated 2. "You cannot get rid of them without reciprocity. these political factors should not be neglected. Nato advisers say". Germany won the support of Belgium. which is confronted by a dilemma over the future of short-range US nuclear weapons in Europe. the Netherlands. In addition. Italy and Turkey. Diplomatic editor. Luxembourg and Norway for its stance. will say the roughly 200 remaining American B61 bombs on European soil should not be unilaterally withdrawn. 2008 [Oliver. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Kibaroğlu states in his article that the attitude of Turkish officials toward US nuclear weapons deployed in Turkey for over four decades has been static.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 51/148 Cross-X.do? load=detay&link=174286&bolum=100 According to the US-based Arms Control Association. an estimated 480 tactical nuclear weapons remain deployed in five NATO non-nuclear-weapon states (Belgium. told Today's Zaman that Turkish decision makers. the Middle East and the Mediterranean. and Turkish officials have no plans to request the withdrawal." gives an in-depth analysis of the rationale behind the Turkish reluctance over the idea to scrap US nukes on its territory. in an article he had published by the Routledge publishing house in December 2005 under the headline "Isn't it decision to withdraw the weapons from Turkish soil. Kibaroğlu. too. an associate professor at Ankara's Bilkent University and an expert on arms control issues.. But Mustafa Time to Say Farewell to Nukes in Turkey?. based on their threat analysis. under NATO nuclear-sharing arrangements. Italy. as to why these weapons should be retained in Turkey.com Thursday File Link – Turkey Hundreds of tactical nuclear weapons remain in NATO non-nuclear states. “Turkey to face pressure over US nukes on its soil.com/tz-web/detaylar. Sariibrahimoğlu ’09 (Lale. including Turkey. Second.e. both the political and the military leadership. Officials have understandable arguments. *****Internal Links***** . http://www. the Netherlands and Turkey) and in the United Kingdom. i. Germany. which also possesses an independent nuclear arsenal. 4/4/09). are for maintaining those weapons on Turkish soil to continue their deterrence capabilities in the region. Canada and Greece ended their participation in nuclear sharing. Turkey sees the US as the backbone of deterrence in the region and does not favor the idea of scrapping the nukes from its soil.” Today’s Zaman. which includes the Balkans. At this stage Turkish diplomatic sources decline to comment on what Ankara's policy will be if NATO presses and finally agrees on a unanimous Kibaroğlu.todayszaman.
http://www. . World powers just concluded a fresh round of nuclear talks with Iran that produced no meaningful movement. from the fragile states of Afghanistan and Iraq to Pakistan. more open to the demands of the young. diplomacy in global hot spots. killing four people.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 52/148 Cross-X. if not kill. recalled Cheryl Mills. The events trade-off with other issues. innovative and accountable than ever before.recent events in Egypt and certainly in that broader region . saying Wednesday the recent developments in Egypt and the Middle East demonstrate the critical need for America's global leadership.S. The timing could not be worse.'" is perhaps her toughest test yet as the nation's top diplomat.ap. where she said the volume of false claims about the United States makes WASHINGTON (AP) -responding difficult.Dip Cap Finite – Egypt Egypt has taken full focus of US diplomacy. Events elsewhere in the world aren't looking any more promising. “Clinton: Critical time for American leadership”. diplomacy needed to be more nimble. the administration's ambitious goal of achieving Palestinian statehood by the end of the year. Clinton was impatient to stop careering from crisis to crisis on the peninsula and engage Pyongyang in a meaningful way that both calmed the situation with South Korea and moved North Korea toward abandoning its nuclear ambitions." She said U. North and South Korea have been on a razor's edge for months.S. Speaking to an audience of nearly every American ambassador. 2011. Labott – 2/16 (Elise Labott. 'We have to dive in.S. http://hosted. Clinton said officials would have to accept that positions and resources would need to be shifted to where they are needed most. Associated Press – 2/2 (Staff. talking about the need for countries to become more democratic.sweep/index. which were in free fall after a push for an Israeli settlement freeze reached a dead end.html?iref=allsearch) CJC "There were a first few moments of wonderment and then she said. and his ouster could paralyze. February 16. 2011. Although tensions had cooled somewhat in recent months. and the Obama administration is struggling over how to respond. diplomacy?”. Feb 2.remind us all how crucial it is to have top-notch leadership on the ground and how quickly the ground can shift under our feet. Clinton referred to the unrest gripping the Arab world in emphasizing the importance of U. more open to technology.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_HILLARY_CLINTON_GLOBAL_CHANGES? SITE=NYMID&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT) CJC Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton stressed the need for stronger U. The two countries exchanged artillery fire in November after North Korea shelled a South Korean island. CNN Senior State Department Producer. she has traveled the globe. Clinton had hoped to start the year reviving peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians.S." Clinton told the gathering of diplomats at the State Department. Now it is becoming reality. Bad timing for a tough test It Diplomatic focus is shifting to deal with the Egyptian crisis. Mubarak's support in the effort was critical. Clinton's counselor and chief of staff. "civilian power.com Thursday File 2NC Ext .cnn. "What's going on today . “Can Clinton remake U.com/2011/POLITICS/02/16/clinton. There is a tradeoff resources are limited. For two years.
" Clinton said. diplomatic cables by the WikiLeaks website.google. Speaking to an audience of nearly every American ambassador. diplomacy in global hot spots. saying Wednesday the recent developments in Egypt and the Middle East demonstrate the critical need for America's global leadership. Twitter and other forums to better project the .S. She urged ambassadors to embrace the potential of Facebook.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jQd9Kvg9Uv2cvUt1Qs9k94zAgEuA? docId=185e3876cccf45b782bfa9245e30be45) CJC Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton stressed the need for stronger U.S. where she said the volume of false claims about the United States makes responding difficult. "What's going on today — recent events in Egypt and certainly in that broader region — remind us all how crucial it is to have top-notch leadership on the ground and how quickly the ground can shift under our feet. Clinton said officials would have to accept that positions and resources would need to be shifted to where they are needed most. "We are all in unchartered territory.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 53/148 Cross-X. 2011.S. diplomacy needed to be more nimble. Clinton said ambassadors needed to adapt to a "fast-changing world" that includes theft. innovative and accountable than ever before. Referring to the release of confidential U.S. Clinton referred to the unrest gripping the Arab world in emphasizing the importance of U. "civilian power." Clinton told the gathering of diplomats at the State Department. “Clinton: Critical time for American leadership”. http://www. Associated Press – 2/2 /11 (Staff. Focus on other issues trades-off with our ability to focus on the unrest in the Middle East." She said U.com Thursday File 2NC Ext – Dip Cap Finite – Middle East Diplomatic efforts must be focused on hot spots to deal with those crises. Feb 2. protests and technological developments that have the capacity to change the lives of millions of people. from the fragile states of WASHINGTON (AP) — Afghanistan and Iraq to Pakistan.
securing vital resources. Stanford University. these priorities have been opposing hostile domination of key geographic regions. concerns—it is critically important that the United States focus its diplomatic efforts on issues of paramount importance to the nation. Fellow in the Center for International Trade at Heritage Foundation.S. 427) CJC Foreign policy is a bag of goods that includes issues from free trade to arms trading to human rights. Montana. The daily conduct of diplomacy through U. page 46] Diplomacy is the first option in addressing potential threats to U. Increased environmental regulations could cause countries to lessen their focus on international threats of violence. Bishop Grewell is a research associate with PERC. . Anderson & Grewell. J. 2001 2 Chi. Bozeman. Diplomatic capital is finite – each new issue trades off with another one. national interests and expressing U. securing vital resources. Anderson is executive director of Political Economy Research Center ("PERC")The Center for Free Market Environmentalism.S. foreign countries and officials cannot be expected to endlessly support and promote U. Int'l L. "Because diplomatic currency is finite . . 46) writes. and ensuring access to foreign economies. Each new issue in the bag weighs it down.” http://www. lessening the focus on other issues and even creating conflicts between issues. . 2000 [Brett. they will stretch the resources necessary to deal with traditional international issues. supporting our allies. Traditionally. these priorities had been opposing hostile domination of key geographic regions. Fall. “The Greening of Foreign Policy. As countries must watch over more and more issues arising in the international policy arena.S." Diplomatic capital is finite – issues trade off. . As Schaefer (2000. such as the sale of ballistic missiles or border conflicts between nations. Foreign policy is a bag of goods that includes issues from free trade to arms trading to human rights. it is critically important that the United States focus its diplomatic efforts on issues of paramount importance to the nation. Schaeffer. supporting our allies. and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. Increased environmental regulations could cause countries to lessen their focus on international threats of violence such as the sale of ballistic missiles or border conflicts between nations. As Schaefer writes. concerns and priorities to foreign nations.S. Traditionally. xi-xvii). J. it is critically important that the United States focus its diplomatic efforts on issues of paramount importance to the nation.pdf] Greater international environmental regulation can increase international tension.perc. missions and representatives is essential in articulating U. The Greening of U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 54/148 Cross-X.S.org/pdf/ps20.com Thursday File 2NC Ext – Dip Cap Finite Diplomatic capital is finite – each new issue trades off with existing issues Anderson & Grewell – 01 (Terry L. lessening the focus on other issues and even creating conflicts between issues. Foreign Policy. interests and eliciting cooperation and support for those interests abroad. Diplomatic capital is finite – plan prevents focus on more important issues. 2001 [Terry and Bishop. “Because diplomatic currency is finite . and ensuring access to foreign economies (Holmes and Moore 1996. As countries must watch over more and more issues arising in the international policy arena. . Each new issue in the bag weighs it down.S. Because diplomatic currency is finite—clearly. they will stretch the resources necessary to deal with traditional international issues.
As countries must watch over more and more issues arising in the international policy arena. December 2000. and ensuring access to foreign economies. . Increased environmental regulations could cause countries to lessen their focus on international threats of violence such as the sale of ballistic missiles or border conflicts between nations. PERC Policy Series: PS-20. “The Greening of Foreign Policy”. http://www. Traditionally.pdf) Greater international environmental regulation can increase international tension.. these priorities have been opposing hostile domination of key geographic regions. supporting our allies. Executive Director of the Property and Environment Research Center.” . and Northwestern Law School. “Because diplomatic currency is finite . securing vital resources. J.org/pdf/ps20. Bishop. Foreign policy is a bag of goods that includes issues from free trade to arms trading to human rights. former research associate for PERC. He is a graduate of Stanford University.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 55/148 Cross-X. the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies.com Thursday File Anderson and Grewell 2000 (Terry L. 46) writes. Each new issue in the bag weighs it down. they will stretch the resources necessary to deal with traditional international issues. As Schaefer (2000. lessening the focus on other issues and even creating conflicts between issues.perc. it is critically important that the United States focus its diplomatic efforts on issues of paramount importance to the nation. .
and where adversaries often enjoy the advantage of greater local knowledge and calibrate their activities to achieve sophisticated information objectives. information operations. Effective strategic communication requires close collaboration across interagency lines at all stages. and stability operations. The Quadrennial Defense Review in 2010 (QDR Report prepared for Congress. February 1. Effective strategic communication also requires the orchestration of multiple lines of operation. . DoD will continue to improve key capabilities that support strategic communication. Together. Strategic communication is essential in COIN. force employment.S. 2010) As part of the U. and public diplomacy and engagement. Chief among these are policy implementation. where population and stakeholder beliefs and perceptions are crucial to our success. CT.com Thursday File 2NC Ext – Diplomatic Capital Key – Plan Cost The plan would have to be spun to control perceptions – this requires extensive diplomatic focus.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 56/148 Cross-X. the effects of these activities support national objectives. and DoD works particularly closely with the Department of State to support State’s core role in communicating with foreign governments and international publics. public affairs. government's integrated civilian-military efforts to interact effectively with a variety of audiences and stakeholders. civil affairs.
extremist Islamic factions in Egypt.us.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 57/148 Cross-X. CNN – 2/2 (Elise Labott and Josh Levs.cnn. killing critical diplomatic and military relationships. And how quickly that ground can shift under our feet.investors. Dougherty – 2/2 (Jill Dougherty.com/2011/POLITICS/02/02/sweep. CNN Staff.cnn. Nobody expects that worst-case nightmare to come through.htm) CJC "For Islamists." US must ensure a peaceful transition now to prevent the unrest from rising creating a scenario for radicalization that would trigger war between Israel and Iran. Clinton noted that the U. 2011.S. with what's going on today. Turning serious at the end of her remarks. CNN Foreign Affairs Correspondent.S.diplomatic. (they) remind us all of how crucial it is to have top-notch leadership on the ground. The meeting was scheduled for early February. “Clinton warns of 'uncharted territory' in wake of Egypt unrest”. Investors Business Daily – 2/11 (Editorial Staff. not just in Egypt but in the host of other countries on the verge of transformation. In a doomsday scenario. the .html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS %3A+Politics%29) CJC The future of U. Clinton said "we have a tough road ahead. McCarthy warns that Effective diplomacy is critical to deal with the Egyptian crisis. http://www. they obviously must be moderates — so we can work with these guys!" Majority rule without liberty amounts to the tyranny of the majority — a chilling prospect in the Mideast." Even as news reports Wednesday showed protesters clashing on the streets of Cairo. “The Sweep: The risk of democracy in the Middle East”.egypt/index. But it's the only "democracy" the Brotherhood will back. Tunisia and even Jordan could come to power. Clinton added: "There are too many forces at work. US diplomacy is stretched to the brink and need full focus to deal with a situation that can change quickly.S. Margaret Scobey. because "we Washington (CNN) -figured it would be quiet. The U. policy and interests in the region will largely depend on who ends up in power. not a culture of governance.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article/562996/201102111907/Egypts-Flight. to development breakthroughs that have the potential to change millions of lives. “Editorial: Obama Botched Egypt — Here's How To Fix It”." And he exposes the preposterous State Department delusion that because alQaida operatives "figure the Brothers are soft. February 2. was not able to attend the State Department meeting. http://www.challenges/index. Regardless of the outcome.com Thursday File Military K2 Secular Transition US must support the military to ensure there is time for political parties to get organized to prevent a rise of the Muslim Brotherhood.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS %3A+Politics%29) CJC In the midst of mass uprisings and historic change in the Middle East. some of which we are only beginning to understand. Too many cross currents and complexities. quietly helping Egypt's military stay in power for as long as it takes to ensure that Mubarak's successor isn't an Islamist enabler. she joked. "From the theft of confidential cables to 21st century protest movements. we are all in uncharted territory. http://www. 2011.S." she said. recent events in Egypt and certainly in that broader region. February 2. That could even trigger a most dangerous war between Israel and Iran. ambassador to Egypt. ambassadors from around the world. should now make the best of a bad situation. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told a gathering of U. 02/11/2011. bringing together U. however. democracy is a tool for acquiring power.S." Clinton called for the unprecedented "Global Chiefs of Mission" meeting several months ago. to WikiLeaks disclosures of diplomatic cables." "As we see." Pointing to a range of challenges. diplomats Wednesday that "we are all in uncharted territory. Egypt. forcing the closing of the Suez Canal and allowing Iran fill the vacuum.com/2011/POLITICS/02/02/us. from congressional pressure to cut the State Department budget and foreign aid.
. possibly becoming even more oppressive. That could give way to a permanent resistance that creates even more pressure for chance. Supporting the status quo could embolden leaders to hold on. further radicalizes the Arab street and creates even more anger at the United States.com 58/148 Thursday File Obama administration has concluded that it must try to be on the right side of history.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. which is seems to be the catchphrase of the week for Middle East analysts.
added that the military had still not disclosed when the three-decade-old emergency law granting the government the right to arrest and hold people without formal charges or judicial oversight would be lifted. . Diplomats. Miller – 2/14 (Judith Miller. The call-up appeared to be related to the army’s continuing need to maintain stability in the absence of the civilian police. the military government announced that it would abide by all treaties. it issued yet another communiqué announcing that it had suspended the constitution that has been structured to give Egypt’s president almost unlimited terms in office and authority and inhibits political opposition. had repeatedly indicated that the army has been acting in good faith and has assured foreign governments that it does not seek a longterm role in governing the country. There have been labor strikes across the country. military police in their traditional camouflage uniforms and red berets have been guarding the U. Embassy. The call-up also reflects continuing political tensions in the country following the forced resignation of President Hosni Mubarak. February 14. Mubarak has flown twice in as many years to Germany for treatment of an undisclosed medical condition. whose elections last fall have been widely denounced by domestic and international critics as fraudulent. On Sunday. Although former President Mubarak ceded power to the army. the state-run television center. Since then. political journalist. The officers. In a recent meeting with western diplomats. including Secretary of Defense Field Marshall Mohammed Tantawi.” the diplomat said. http://www.foxnews.com Thursday File A2: Military Not Relinquish Power Diplomats are working with the military now. A western diplomat said that senior army officers.com/world/2011/02/14/egyptianarmy-calls-military-reservists-help-peace/) CJC The Egyptian Army today called up thousands of military reservists as soldiers cleared Tahrir Square. A western diplomat said that it was believed that former president Mubarak was still in his residence at the Egyptian seaside resort of Sharm el-Sheikh. It also dissolved Egypt’s parliament. the epicenter of the extraordinary revolution that has transformed Egypt and the political map of the Middle East. the diplomat said. who demonstrated on Monday demanding higher wages and better working conditions. Egypt’s ambassador said this morning in a television interview that Mubarak’s health was deteriorating. the Egyptian military officials leading the country through an unchartered period of political transition are stressing that they do not want to govern Egypt indefinitely or. have been stressing that “they are going to do what the people want. one diplomat suggested. Myriad youthful opposition groups have been holding almost round-the-clock meetings to craft and present a unified statement of their demands for reform to the military. Egypt -in the face of overwhelming numbers of protesters throughout Cairo and other Egyptian cities.S. They don’t want to rule indefinitely. apparently including its long-standing peace accord with Israel. “Egyptian Army Calls Up Military Reservists to Help Keep Peace”. including by the police. In Washington. Most of Egypt’s civilian police officers fled their posts on January 28 CAIRO. be responsible for Egypt’s crushing problems. On Saturday.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 59/148 Cross-X. which Egyptian sources have identified as stomach cancer. Egypt’s autocratic ruler for almost 30 years. however. and other strategic facilities throughout the country. 2011. government ministries. but western diplomats in Cairo said they had no independent information about the state of his current condition. it remains unclear exactly what part the army will play in its role as the transitional government that Egyptians have demanded should lead to elections by September.
com/articles/2011/02/02/egypts_future_will_be_decided_by_the_milit ary. The key now is not a lot of public statements from the president. has played such a role. . That. February 2. Quandt – 2/2 (William B. Whether it falls this week or in coming months.W.com Thursday File Dip. the U. The military is the only institution in Egypt that can convince him to do so – and assure him the dignified retirement from power that he apparently craves.may pass into the radical Islamic sphere. But rather that it can be the guarantor of a peaceful transition to a new. similarly in the Philippines and Indonesia.and even Pinochet’s person – would be respected as long as they did not block the transition to democracy and limited their role to upholding security. These officers. Not that the new president of Egypt should. the United States has completely reequipped and trained a new. could weigh in as well — with the simple message that the prolonged transition envisaged by Mubarak does not seem viable. as is most likely. perhaps CIA Director Leon Panetta to their counterparts might help. efforts to apply gentle pressure must now be followed by a more forceful message to those who can get Mubarak’s attention in a way that we have not. With one exception. U. U. He is the author of several bestselling books including "Inside the Asylum.S. http://www. we seem to be witnessing an encouraging example of the military helping with the transition to a new order.html) CJC It is not clear that Mubarak's regime will survive the week. Frank Wisner. has looked to the Egyptian military as a partner primarily on regional security and anti-terrorism issues. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mike Mullen. This is not an unfamiliar role for militaries in moments of transition. In Tunisia as well. And the experienced former ambassador to Egypt. And that can only happen if Mubarak steps down. Since 1979.politico. Many of our most senior generals have longstanding relationships with their Egyptian comrades. If. should be on the phone with their Egyptian comrades to offer assurances of aid and support if they choose to stand against a radical Islamic regime.like Turkey before it . Egypt . He actively participated in the Camp David peace negotiations in 1978. Quandt is a politics professor at the University of Virginia. emerge from its ranks. And there is nothing America can do to prevent that.S. 2011. So Egypt need not turn out like Iran — where the shah’s military split and went down with him. leaving a vacuum that allowed for a great deal of post-revolutionary violence and radicalization. Turkey’s military. Bush.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 60/148 Cross-X. The crisis needs to be brought to an end soon. if the president permits them. or will.S-style military. the military remains on the sidelines and allows a radical regime to take power. Egypt's immediate future will be decided by the Egyptian military. Now that military is the key to Egypt’s near-term future. Augusto Pinochet was ousted. a discredited dictator was eased out (with American urging) and the military stayed on to provide stability for the new democracies. Babbin – 2/2 (Jed Babbin served as a Deputy Undersecretary of Defense under George H. In the past. Obama has said enough and is just about on target. If the Egyptian military acts soon — and in accord with the sentiment of the Egyptian people — they will emerge as a strong.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=1690BD3B49D6-43ED-ADDD-DE8AD70C9948) CJC So. And we have paid for it – about $1 billion per year. “Egypt's Future Will Be Decided by the Military”. He served on the National Security Council dealing with Middle East affairs in the Nixon and Carter administrations. http://dyn. with a few bumpy moments." and "In the Words of Our Enemies. “Time for Obama to press Mubarak”. Diplomacy with the military is key to avoiding extremist from taking over the government.". the hated dictator Gen. February 2. K2 Transition – Military Diplomacy with Egyptian military is critical to ensuring a stable transition. But a few calls from Defense Secretary Robert Gates. 2011. Now we need to think of it as a partner in helping to consolidate Egypt’s democratic transition. the kind of bond that can only be achieved by serving side by side in training and military exercises. In Chile. when I was serving in the Carter administration. and only that. it is time for President Barack Obama to take the next step — to cash in on the close military-tomilitary relationship that has been forged between the United States and Egypt over the years. but the military was actually given guarantees by the new Chilean democrats that its corporate interests . would be an effective American influence on Egypt's immediate future.realclearpolitics. democratic order. respected force in the new Egypt.
is watching what happens with the demonstrations.com Thursday File Diplomacy with Egyptian military is critical to a stable transition government. Mubarak aside. FEBRUARY 3. The second is the efforts of Iran and Syria . http://online. Dunne said. likewise. one of his protégés. Only the Egyptian military can ensure that the new government is not radical. experts said.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 61/148 Cross-X. It was Sadat who braved the Arab currents to sign the Camp David Accords. Wall Street Journal – 2/3 (JONATHAN WEISMAN And ADAM ENTOUS.html? mod=rss_Politics_And_Policy) CJC Dunne. took over. 2011. the first real peace agreement between Israel and a formerly-hostile neighbor. and the demonstrators are waiting for Washington to push Mr. who seized power in 1952. fervently attempting to ally Arabs in a unified front against Israel. even if only to quell the fighting. . restore order and set up the new government.S. Babbin – 2/2 (Jed Babbin served as a Deputy Undersecretary of Defense under George H. Mubarak swept into power at Sadat's death. Two factors will control the result of the crisis that now envelops the Mubarak regime. Sadat was assassinated by Muslim radicals in 1981 because of his willingness to make peace with Israel in the Camp David agreement. U. Bush.to turn Egypt into another Syria or a satellite of Iran. sees the Egyptian military as likely the only institution that can guide a smooth and inclusive transition. The first is the Egyptian military. “White House Charts a New Plan”.com/article/SB10001424052748703960804576120064121963244. http://www. Some U. officials believe the violence would worsen if the military intervened. leaving it to the police and security forces to quell violence between anti-government protesters and Mubarak supporters. to prevent Egypt from being subordinated by its Islamic neighbors.independently and in combination with Egyptian Islamists . 2011. Israel. is in a difficult spot with the protestors.wsj.S. He is the author of several bestselling books including "Inside the Asylum.W. and not to crackdown on the protesters.S. said the White House needs to convince the Egyptian army to step in. February 2. Pan-Arabism has since disappeared except from the mind of Libya's Muammar Qaddafi. the U. has been exerting pressure on the Egyptian military not to take sides. Anwar alSadat. and perhaps the motivation.". Nasser was a pan-Arabist. officials believe for now the military it will stay on the sidelines. The Mubarak regime is a lineal descendant of Gamel Abdel Nasser's. The U." Ms.html) CJC The only stabilizing force is the Egyptian military which has the power. Staff Writers. "Nobody wants to be the first to make the hard decisions. When Nasser died in 1970.realclearpolitics. however." and "In the Words of Our Enemies. leading to the 1967 Arab-Israeli war.S. and the parallel Iranian goal of establishing a Muslim caliphate hasn't taken hold in Egypt yet because of the three men who have ruled it for nearly sixty years. an Egypt expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and an informal White House adviser. Since last week. The military. “Egypt's Future Will Be Decided by the Military”.com/articles/2011/02/02/egypts_future_will_be_decided_by_the_milit ary. many of whom have critiqued the Obama Michele administration's stutter-step embrace of regime change in Egypt.
" Rubin said.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 62/148 Cross-X.com Thursday File Sustained Diplomacy Checks Extremist Rise Continued diplomacy will be critical to ensure democratic elections and prevent extremist take over. will come in the months ahead as U. February 3.S. needs to make clear the Egyptian elections happen "come hell or high water.reaction/index. 2011.com/2011/WORLD/africa/02/03/egypt. . when the fall of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi led to the rise of the fundamentalist regime still in power today. but at the same pushing to ensure armed extremist militias aren't allowed to claim the mantle of democratic legitimacy. Egypt talk ways to 'move' political transition forward”. CNN – 2/3 (CNN Wire Staff. http://www. The U. “Official: U. policymakers try to prevent Egypt from following the path Iran took after 1979..html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss %2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS%3A+Politics%29) CJC The real difficulty.cnn.obama. Rubin said.S.S.
. Feb 3 2011. http://www.com/article/2011/02/04/us-egypt-usaidUSTRE71175920110204? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Amid concerns that a wave of protests that erupted in Tunisia and then Egypt could spread to other Middle Eastern capitals.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 63/148 Cross-X. “U.on Thursday to discuss Egypt and to express support for his own recent reforms. Reuters – 2/3 (Steve Holland and Susan Cornwell Staff. in talks over possible Mubarak departure”.another close U. Clinton spoke to Jordan's King Abdullah -.reuters. ally -.S. The White House said Obama also told Saleh it is imperative that Yemen take forceful action against al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. part of a wave of change by authoritarian governments across the Middle East seeking to head off Egypt-style unrest.com Thursday File Dip Cap Checks Spillover Diplomatic capital is not limited to Egypt in the crisis. Obama phoned Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh to follow up his pledges of reform with concrete actions.S. Continued pressure on other allies for reform is critical to checking back spillover.
closing the Suez Canal would cause oil price shocks and these Rising oil prices destroy the economy Whipple 7/14/2010 (Tom.com/article/2011/02/01/us-egypt-usa-elbaradei-idUSTRE7107ZJ20110201? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC The U. Editor of the daily Peak Oil News and the weekly Peak Oil Review. and with five or more countries with nuclear weapons *****Impact Scenarios***** ***Suez Canal Shell*** . one of the most highly respected analysts of peak oil issues in the United States.com/commentary/national/6896-the-peak-oil-crisis-a-mid-year-review. the U. "One such contact was between the ambassador and Mohamed ElBaradei today. The have the influence necessary to support the transition. it is totatlly dependent on foreign oil. Among those who appreciate that the world's petroleum resources are finite. If the United States stopped getting foreign oil. few understand the proximity of the crisis. With five offical nations having nuclear weapons. Most of us have no thoughts about the issue other than the current price of a gallon of gas. if there were a war with any other major power over oil. the government would go to no ends to secure more. referring to U. Department of State said. http://www. has demanded President Hosni Mubarak quit office and said he was ready to play a role in any shift to a democratic system in Egypt. 2011. A. Mohamed ElBaradei.com. C. the retired head of the U.N. The United States currency will become useless and will have no way of securing reserves." it CAIRO (Reuters) added in the statement sent to Reuters in Cairo. envoy in Egypt spoke with ElBaradei: statement” Feb 1. these wars would most likely involve nuclear weapons. "Our embassy in Cairo maintains an active outreach to a wide range of political and civil society representatives in Cairo.com Thursday File A2: No Influence U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 64/148 Cross-X. Reuters – 2/1 (“U.S. increasing oil prices and eventually oil shortages within the next few years are as inevitable as the sunrise.S.S. The United States has little to no capacity to produce oil.com/opinions/will-an-economic-collapse-kill-you/ AD: 7-7-09 )ET Now its time to look at the consequences of a failing world economy. Once one nation launches a nuclear weapon. The Peak Oil Crisis: A Mid-Year Review.S.html) six in ten surveyed by Pew believe that the economic situation will be better soon and that the recession is only temporary. and many other economies into a deep.reuters. there would of course be retaliation. and the mission has been especially busy in the last several days to help convey our strong support for an orderly transition. nuclear watchdog. Nearly everyone will admit that continuing oil shortages and that high (above $100 a barrel) oil prices would be devastating to the prospects for economic recovery and that persisting very high (say above $200 a barrel) oil prices would send the U. and four more likely to have them there could be major consequences of another world war. State Department said in a statement.fcnp. The problem is that few are willing to consider seriously the accumulating evidence that Interestingly. ambassador to Cairo made contact with prominent Egyptian political activist Mohamed ElBaradei on Tuesday to discuss a political transition in Egypt. Extinction Broward 9 ((Member of Triond) http://newsflavor. long-lasting depression. State Department is busy brokering a peaceful transition to democracy in Egypt now.S. FNCP. This alone vividly illustrates how poorly the true state of the global economic situation is understood and the size of the shock that most of us are in for." the U. http://www. Retired 30-year CIA analyst who has been following the peak oil story since 1999.S. like Russia or China. The first thing that will happen after an economic collapse will be war over resources. extend the Hilliker evidence. Ambassador Margaret Scobey.S.
The risk is so high that acting to save the economy is the most important issue facing us in the 21st century. .Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.com 65/148 Thursday File there would most likely be a world nuclear war.
U. Senate's energy panel. Brent crude oil futures surged to $101 a barrel. warned on Monday that the escalating protests in Egypt could affect U.S.com/article/2011/02/01/us-egypt-usaidUSTRE70R6A920110201?pageNumber=1) CJC The crisis is taking its toll on oil markets. Senator Jeff Bingaman.S. Egypt's Suez Canal allows the transport of crude oil and liquefied natural gas bound for the U. satisfied the situation in Egypt would not escalate into widespread violence or turmoil. and other countries.S.reuters. urges Egypt's Mubarak do more.S. .286.S. “U. The broad Standard & Poor's 500 Index closed up 0.12. chairman of the U. stocks rose as investors focused on the expanding U.S.com Thursday File Close Suez Canal = Price Shocks Egypt crisis is raising oil prices for fear of closing the Suez Canal. economy and rising earnings.77 percent. 2011. as anxieties rose that protests in Egypt could spark instability across the Middle East and disrupt oil shipments through the Suez Canal. http://www. Gibbs said no disruptions had been reported in the Suez Canal. a 28month high. Jan 31. access to affordable energy supplies.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 66/148 Cross-X. If the canal were closed it would create price shocks and market disruption. Reuters – 1/31 (Steve Holland and Andrew Quinn. Staff. envoy in Cairo”. at 1. National security aides at the White House were monitoring the effect the unrest and uncertainty in Egypt may have on oil and financial markets.
2011.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 67/148 Cross-X. “Egyptian Unrest Leaves U.nationaljournal. but Pumphrey said the risk could compel individual shippers to slow down shipments there or choose alternate.com/member/daily/egyptian-unrest-leavesu-s-over-an-imported-barrel-20110131) CJC Egypt is in a unique position in the oil supply chain even though it produces only 700.000 barrels a day. Over an Imported Barrel”. . longer routes. http://www.com Thursday File Egypt K2 Oil Markets Egypt key to global Oil flows. The Suez Canal and Sumed pipeline serve as vital transportation arteries for global oil shipments. For now. February 1. no evidence suggests that either of those avenues will be blocked.S. Harder – 2/1 (Amy Harder reports on energy and the environment for National Journal and moderates an expert blog on the topic as well.
Mike Mullen.html?hpid=topnews) CJC Concern was also growing about possible interference in traffic along the Suez Canal. Sami Enan. 'can't dictate events'”.com Thursday File Egypt – Military K2 Suez Canal Egyptian military can prevent the closing of the Suez Canal with US influence. http://www. U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 68/148 Cross-X. John Kirby said the chairman "expressed confidence in the Egyptian military's ability to provide for their country's security. Gen." . Washington Post – 2/2 (Karen DeYoung Washington Post Staff Writer.S.washingtonpost. 2011. and Mullen spokesman Capt. Adm. February 2. had his second conversation this week with Lt. “As crisis deepens in Egypt. through which much of the West's imported oil travels. both internally and throughout the Suez Canal area. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.com/wpdyn/content/article/2011/02/02/AR2011020206619. the Egyptian military's chief of staff.
To curtail their opposition. In other words.html#ixzz1Cz60q1YQ) CJC The demonstrations in Egypt and elsewhere in the Arab world could well be the harbinger of an excruciating oil crisis. “What if Saudi Arabia erupts?”. experts have warned about the fragility of the House of Saud. there will be no one to save the neighborhood.politico. Egypt produces less than 1 percent of the world’s oil. For decades. this social contract could face a challenge at the worst possible time — when the House of Saud’s top echelon is ill and geriatric. Inspired by the events elsewhere in the Sunni Muslim world. Not because Egypt is a major oil exporter. petrodollar-funded entitlement programs. If the Saudis should decide to emulate their Egyptian brethren. February 3. Saudi Arabia not only is the world’s largest exporter. studies show. a new oil crisis might be upon us.com Thursday File Impact Magnifier: Saudi Arabia Continued instability in Egypt risks revolt and uprising in Saudi Arabia causing megaoil shocks causing the global economy to nose dive. Luft – 2/3 (Gal Luft is executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security.8 million barrels. about 5 percent of the overall global tanker trade. And not even because it controls the Suez Canal. through which 1. It isn’t. In today’s economy. capable of supplying the market when others falter. Saudi Arabia is the oil market’s only firefighter. . A new oil shock would cause our economy to nose-dive back into a recession. 2011.com/news/stories/0211/48698. But if the fire station is on fire.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 69/148 Cross-X. http://www. Saudi monarchs have placated their subjects with cradle-to-grave. every recession except one was preceded by a sharp rise in oil prices. Egypt is relevant to the oil market because it may be a bellwether for the disgruntled masses in Saudi Arabia. this could be as devastating as a second heart attack is for a fragile patient just recovering from a first one. Since World War II. travels daily. it also holds 70 percent of the world’s spare production capacity. while taming the Wahhabi establishment through charitable contributions to religious institutions worldwide. And instability in that oil kingdom is how mega-oil shocks are made.
S. The euphemism denotes the use of non-military tools — diplomacy. and Egypt's revolt will recede from the front pages. must be avoided. Egypt could be the watershed for an Obama doctrine of soft power.com/2011-02-15/news/fl-egyptsoft-power-obama-editorial-a20110215_1_soft-power-egyptian-people-egyptian-revolution) CJC The euphoric moment is passing. what would have worked — or was needed — in one country would not automatically apply to another. As such. With few exceptions. Egypt will be a test case for US soft-power. So the debate revolves around the desirability of maintaining American primacy.1 Those arguing for a grand strategy of retrenchment are a diverse lot.sun-sentinel. however. It is the Egyptian people who are the true heroes of this peaceful uprising. B. http://articles. And Egypt offers an opportunity for soft power — thanks to the courage and resilience of Egyptians who rallied peacefully for almost a month to prompt Mubarak's departure. and they are more than justified to feel vindicated. The price and risks of primacy are reported in newspapers every day. At the outset of this discussion. he rates nowhere near the likes of a brutal despot like Saddam Hussein. And certainly as an alternative to the Iraq model employed by the George W. Proponents of retrenchment focus a great deal on the costs of U. Bush administration. the benefits that stem from it are not. economic and soft power capabilities. etc. selective engagers. “Egypt 'revolution' opens opportunity for U." In the previous issue of The National Interest. military commitments to centers of economic might. soft power”. US must remain flexible and constantly engaged to influence the military to ensure a transition to democracy. imperil American security and deny the United States and its allies the benefits of primacy. who want no foreign military commitments. US hegemony solves all problems Thayer 06 Associate Professor in the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies at Missouri State University [Bradley. The United States has much influence with Egypt's military leaders. In Defense of Primacy. and can't be allowed to be lost. and offshore balancers. Those arguing against primacy claim that the United States should retrench. the Egyptian military has suspended parliament and the country's constitution. in fact. Failure would undermine US soft-power moving forward. or because the maintenance of primacy will lead the United States into the trap of "imperial overstretch. But critical issues in any discussion of America's grand strategy: Can America remain the dominant state? Should it strive to do this? America can remain dominant due to its prodigious military. If so. Nonetheless.S. Such is the case with international relations and diplomacy — cookie-cutter.S. even those who advocate retrenchment acknowledge this. It is an opportunity that can't be missed. Barring some disaster or tremendous folly. economic and military leader. February 15. that will remain the case for the foreseeable future. it would be a profound strategic mistake that would lead to far greater instability and war in the world. That means the next phase in Egypt will have begun — the transition to a democracy — and that will be an opportunity for the United States to employ and test "soft power.com Thursday File ***Leadership Shell*** A. action--but they fail to realize what is good about American primacy. If the United States adopted such a strategy. hard power debate of recent years? The soft power phrase became vogue in the aftermath of serious divisions over the war in Iraq. Far from it. Sun-Sentinel – 2/15 (Sun Sentinel Editorial Board. The National Interest. either because the United States lacks the power to maintain its primacy and should withdraw from its global commitments. — rather than overt force to achieve U. That leverage must now be used skillfully to assist and ensure a fair election that places a legitimate government in place. one could argue that soft power's limits were sadly on display during the protests in Iran last year. Many claim a sense of pride that they achieved their aims non-violently. And. December (lexis)] A grand strategy based on American primacy means ensuring the United States stays the world's number one power--the diplomatic. Christopher Layne warned of these dangers of primacy and called for retrenchment. As disliked as Mubarak became. It is their achievement that opened the window to international soft power. objectives. aid.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 70/148 Cross-X. A GRAND strategy of ensuring . The totality of that equation of power answers the first issue. it's critical to acknowledge that Egypt is not Iraq." Remember that term? Remember the soft power vs. who want a modified form of selective engagement that would have the United States abandon its landpower presence abroad in favor of relying on airpower and retrenchment.S. who want U. textbook models don't exist. The ouster of Hosni Mubarak from power last week opens an opportunity to position the Egyptian "revolution" as a soft power showcase. They include isolationists. In the aftermath of Mubarak's resignation. 2011. it's the Egypt case that stands front-and-center now. The United States has overwhelming military capabilities and wealth in comparison to other states or likely potential alliances. in any of its guises. Military leaders say they will run the country until elections are held in six months. There are two seapower to defend its interests. owing to aid and training the past few decades.
Never before in its history has this country. and a big change from the Cold War when the ratio was about 1. had us extensive influence in international politics. and the robustness of the United States' conventional and strategic deterrent capabilities is increased.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. But China may not be confident those strategies would work. Thus. That is a ratio of almost 17 to one (85 to five). resort to other mechanisms of challenging the United States. and so it is likely to refrain from testing the United States directly for the foreseeable future because China's power benefits. such as toward Iran. primacy--and the bandwagoning effect--has also given are the "Gang of Five": China. do not agree with all policy choices made by the United States. Whether they are terrorists. in part because they shoulder some of its burdens. where it can be stymied by opponents.S. Simply by declaring that the United States is "going home". Of course. stabilize Afghanistan. the world's airspace and outer space--allowing the United States to project its power far from its borders. A remarkable fact about international politics today--in a world where American primacy is clearly and unambiguously on display--is that countries want to align themselves with the United States. the costs of power projection for the United States and its allies are reduced. Such influence comes in many forms. from the international order U. China is clearly the most important of these states because it is a rising great power. The quiet effectiveness of the PSI in dismantling Libya's WMD programs and unraveling the A. or to gain greater influence.S. In the anarchic world of the animal kingdom. If there is no diplomatic solution to the threats that confront the United States. Cuba--it is an anti-U.com 71/148 Thursday File American primacy takes as its starting point the protection of the U. power. a key tenet of the Bush Doctrine is to attack terrorists far from America's shores and not to wait while they use bases in other countries to plan and train for attacks against the United States itself. This is because threats will exist no matter what role America chooses to play in international politics. China proclaims that it will. Khan proliferation network are in sharp relief to the typically toothless attempts by the UN to halt proliferation.2 This is not an advantage that should be relinquished lightly. if necessary. Indeed. This requires a physical. on-the-ground presence that cannot be achieved by offshore balancing. primacy creates. And when enemies must be confronted. 84 are allied with America--their security is tied to the United States through treaties and other informal arrangements--and they include almost all of the major economic and military powers. For three of the "Gang of Five" cases--Venezuela. in most cases. allowing the United States to shape the behavior of states and international institutions. countries like India. Cuba. Iran. regime that is the source of . that the global trade and monetary regimes flourish and that Washington's worldwide network of allies is reassured and protected. including asymmetric strategies such as targeting communication and intelligence satellites upon which the United States depends. does not mean that others will respect American wishes to retreat. then the conventional and strategic military power of the United States is what protects the country from such threats. invade Iraq or to stop proliferation through the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI ). while denying those common avenues to its enemies. away from American soil. But even Beijing is intimidated by the United States and refrains from openly challenging U. retrenchment will make the United States less secure than the present grand strategy of primacy.8 to one of states aligned with the United States versus the Soviet Union. They so many allies. commands the "global commons"--the oceans. Indeed.S. To make such a declaration implies weakness and emboldens aggression. a strategy based on primacy focuses on engaging enemies overseas. As a consequence. Of course. predators prefer to eat the weak rather than confront the strong. a strategy based on retrenchment will not be able to achieve these fundamental objectives of the United States. Doing so allows the United States to operate with allies outside of the UN. Only the "Gang of Five" may be expected to consistently resist the agenda and actions of the United States. thus abandoning its commitments or making unconvincing half-pledges to defend its interests and allies. as we shall see. These interests include ensuring that critical resources like oil flow around the world. The other states are far weaker than China. it is no surprise to see NATO in Afghanistan or the Australians in East Timor. In contrast. history shows that threats must be confronted. Of 192 countries. Washington cannot call a "time out". rogue states or rising powers. Afghanistan and Iraq stand in contrast to the UN's inability to save the people of Darfur or even to conduct any military campaign to realize the goals of its charter. but because doing so allows them to use the power of the United States for their own purposes--their own protection. primacy is secured because America. American-led wars in Kosovo. The same is true of the anarchic world of international politics. and it cannot hide from threats. You can count with one hand countries opposed to the United States. Indeed. Q.S. at present. this is not out of any sense of altruism. U. U.S. Allies are a great asset to the United States. but New Delhi is friendly to Washington. for example.S. one of which is America's ability to create coalitions of like-minded states to free Kosovo. or any country. North Korea and Venezuela. homeland and American global interests. Iran. as Barry Posen has noted.
stabilizing influence on America's interests in the short run is open to question. power. Iraq. and. but democratic progress has been made in Algeria. In addition to ensuring the security of the United States and its allies. This is not because democracies do not have clashing interests. American primacy within the international system causes many positive outcomes for Washington and the world. primacy. voted in a critical October 2004 election." Consequently.5 million Afghans. The Dark Ages followed Rome's collapse. respect for international property rights. maximizes efficiencies and growth.S. Morocco. more transparent and more likely to want to resolve things amicably in concurrence with U. increasing respect for human rights. liberal democracies are more likely to align with the United States and be sympathetic to the American worldview. The United States created this network not out of altruism but for the benefit and the economic well-being of America. Kuwait. As country and western great Ral Donner sang: "You don't know what you've got (until you lose it). along with the growth in the the United States has labored to create an economically liberal worldwide network characterized by free trade and commerce. Britain or the United States today. most notably France and West Germany. Indonesia and Australia. their people would be better off. Indeed they do. particularly the poorest states in the Third World. the march of democracy has been impressive. The United States has brought democracy to Afghanistan. By all accounts.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 72/148 relations. The first free elections were held It was the military power of the United States that put Iraq on the path to democracy. which are facilitated through American primacy. peace and stability have been great benefits of an era where there was a dominant power--Rome. 40 percent of them women. Without U. Israel and Egypt. India and Pakistan. American primacy helps keep a number of complicated relationships aligned--between Greece and Turkey. And so. particularly war's worst form: great power wars. Indeed. in general. Scholars and statesmen have long recognized the irenic effect of power on the anarchic world of international politics. a change of regime in Caracas. Critics have faulted the Bush Administration for attempting to spread democracy in the Middle East. growing democratization--is directly linked to U. Tehran or Havana could very well reorient THROUGHOUT HISTORY. Perhaps democratic Arab states would be more opposed to Israel.S. such as in Darfur. This is not to say it fulfills Woodrow Wilson's vision of ending all war. American power gives the United States the ability to spread democracy and other elements of its ideology of liberalism. Retrenchment proponents seem to think that the current system can be maintained without the current amount of U. U. as John Owen noted on these pages in the Spring 2006 issue. Perhaps the greatest testament to the benefits of the economic network comes from Deepak Lal. South Korea and Japan. a robust monetary regime. Of course. Rather. one gathers from the argument. States. In that they are dead wrong and need to be reminded of one of history's most significant lessons: Appalling things happen when international orders collapse.3 So. During the Cold War.S. Lebanon. Hitler succeeded the order established at Versailles. in Iraq in January 2005. Today. Economic spin-offs foster the development of military technology. it is important to note what those good things are. the country itself is not intrinsically anti-American. spreading democracy helps maintain U. Wars still occur where Washington's interests are not seriously threatened. diplomat and researcher at the World Bank. They may not yet look like Western-style democracies. Washington fostered democratic governments in Europe. whether democracy in the Middle East will have a peaceful or of tilting at windmills. the Palestinian Authority and Egypt. This economic order forces American industries to be competitive. Abandoning the positions of his youth. The economic stability and prosperity that stems from this economic order is a global public good from which all states benefit.4 As a witness to the failed alternative . a former Indian foreign service number of democratic states around the world has been the growth of the global economy. Lal now recognizes that the only way to bring relief to desperately poor countries of the Third World is through the adoption of free market economic policies and globalization. leadership. should not even be attempted. Asia and the Caucasus. Third. but a Pax Americana does reduce war's likelihood.S. even though remnant Taliban forces threatened them. Cross-X. Now even the Middle East is increasingly democratic. The first has been a more peaceful world. Second. With its allies. power. Doing so is a source of much good for the countries concerned as well as the United States because.com Thursday File the problem.S. Everything we think of when we consider the current international order--free trade. power behind it. democratic states are good for their citizens as well as for advancing the interests of the United In addition. and mobility of capital and labor markets. where 8. labeling such an effort a modern form It is the obligation of Bush's critics to explain why democracy is good enough for Western states but not for the rest.S. and benefits defense as well because the size of the economy makes the defense burden manageable. but nonetheless. Latin America. helping to ensure military prowess. the likelihood of any type of conflict is significantly reduced. who started his career confident in the socialist ideology of post-independence India. the liberal order created by the United States will end just as assuredly. leadership reduced friction among many states that were historical antagonists. it is because they are more open. once states are governed democratically.
and. 80 percent had a favorable opinion of America. military conducting a humanitarian mission. a tremendous earthquake and tsunami occurred in the Indian Ocean near Sumatra. Whether in Indonesia or Kashmir. Before the tsunami. Indeed. military is the earth's "911 force"--it serves.S. . The United States was the first to respond with aid. Whenever there is a natural disaster.000 U.000 people. but it also had a real impact on the War on Terror. airmen and marines responded by providing water. military has participated in over fifty operations since the end of the Cold War--and most of those missions have been humanitarian in nature. because it helped people in the wake of disasters. earthquake. Lal is one of the strongest academic proponents of American primacy due to the economic prosperity it provides. as one might expect from those witnessing the munificence of the United States.S. flood. Only the U. de facto. In fact. About 20.S. On the day after Christmas in 2004. Indonesians still have overwhelmingly positive views of the United States. military responded immediately. military to South and Southeast Asia for many months to help with the aftermath of the disaster. the global paramedic and the planet's fire department. Washington followed up with a large contribution of aid and deployed the U. sailors. To help those in need. the United States also provided financial aid to Pakistan. 80 percent of Indonesian public opinion was opposed to the United States.S. In October 2005. For the first time since 9/11. the U. military could have accomplished this Herculean effort. as the world's police. it left a lasting impression about America. Fourth and the United States. killing some 300. the money was well-spent When people in the Muslim world witness the U. soldiers. and in poll after poll. American generosity has done more to help the United States fight the War on Terror than almost any other measure. polls of Pakistani opinion have found that more people are favorable toward the United States than unfavorable. food. after it. diverting helicopters fighting the War on Terror in nearby Afghanistan to bring relief as soon as possible. typhoon or tsunami.com Thursday File economic systems. medical aid. in seeking primacy. The U. volcanic eruption. The U. The United States is the earth's leading source of positive externalities for the world. the United States assists the countries in need. has been willing to use its power not only to advance its interests but to promote the welfare of people all over the globe. drought. UN peacekeeping operations depend on the United States to supply UN forces. killing about 74.S. Two years after the disaster. while support for Al-Qaeda dropped to its lowest level. disease treatment and prevention as well as forensic assistance to help identify the bodies of those killed. for the United States humanitarian missions are the equivalent of a blitzkrieg. No other force possesses the communications capabilities or global logistical reach of the U. As the War on Terror is a war of ideas and opinion as much as military action. an enormous earthquake struck Kashmir. Cross-X. military.S.000 people and leaving three million homeless. there is a clearly positive impact on Muslim opinion of the United States.S.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 73/148 finally.S.
Once reviled by many in the West as a supporter of Al Qaeda. Analysts say a more democratic Egyptian government will have to be responsive to a public that may oppose such special and close ties with Washington. intelligence agencies. 2011. “Mubarak resignation throws into question U. Instead. Indeed. demanding an end to his regime. Muslim Brotherhood takeover would close that Intel window. Moreover. Turkey’s role as a key arbiter among Middle East players. Now the future of that cooperation is in question. Syria.Leadership US effective response to Egypt is critical to maintaining regional ties in the Middle East critical to its leadership. and Jordan that could help spur badly-needed economic growth and job creation.S. and an important model of Islamist democracy to the Arab world.html?hpid=topnews) CJC Egypt's government has been a critical partner for U. February 1.politico. signals a new era in regional relations. the contours of the U. Turkey has also exerted its influence to promote regional trade and investment. The small Arab sheikhdom of Qatar is also exerting disproportionate influence. vantage point – namely the ascendance of the militant Shiite group Hezbollah in Lebanon accompanied by Syria’s resurgence there from the nadir of its influence in 2005. a bridge to Europe. President Barack Obama’s call to the “win the future” in his State of the Union address resonates deeply regarding America’s role in the Middle East. the Muslim Brotherhood is likely to gain influence if free For decades. not least because of the impassioned calls for dignity and respect by people whose governments have long treated them with contempt. Washington is facing a new reality in the Arab world. and possibly positioned to reprise this role as Lebanon once again contends with mounting tensions. The dynamics now spawning protests in Algeria. http://dyn. With the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak.com Thursday File Ext .-Egyptian relationship may well be redrawn. These rolling popular protests are the most dramatic examples of the region’s changing tides. “Winning the future in a new Mideast”. In particular.cfm?uuid=EC73B7BB-6C56-41A0-8F05-AD2986A02AE3) CJC President Hosni Mubarak’s speech Tuesday is unlikely to assuage the hundreds of thousands of Egyptians gathered in Cairo’s Tahrir Square.com/printstory. an end to torture and repression and for legitimate governments that can represent their aspirations.S. A. a staunch American ally. Jordan. The unprecedented popular demonstrations Egyptian that already expelled one Arab leader in Tunisia and may well be on the verge of unseating another regime in Egypt mark a watershed in the region from which there is no return. Lebanon. the Arabic language satellite network that has broadcast from Egypt for the past eight days. Their demands are not the “bread and butter” issues that typify Arab world street protests. Institute of Peace. Rather. http://www. these are pleas for greater freedoms. A regional re- alignment is shifting the contours of power and influence from the Levant to the Gulf.-Egyptian counterterrorism work”.S. This seminal moment in the Middle East demands that the United States be bold and innovative rather than relying on a reflexive response to the changes—both dramatic and subtle—that are now re-shaping that region.com/wpdyn/content/article/2011/02/12/AR2011021203581.S. Continuing partnership with Egypt is critical to counterterrorism operations globally.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 74/148 Cross-X. ***Terrorism Shell*** . the network is now being celebrated for insuring that the world can watch Egyptians make history. It owns Al Jazeera. the United States must recognize this shifting regional alignment if it is to leverage any of these changes to its advantage. sharing information on extremist groups such as al-Qaeda and working hand in glove on counterterrorism operations. Washington Post Staff Writers. It is spearheading a free trade zone encompassing Turkey. February 13. Yet. These protests are remarkable. The stakes are nothing less than the future of American leadership in the region.S. policymakers must grasp if the United States is to exert influence and remain relevant in this “new” Middle East. Washington Post – 2/13 (Mary Beth Sheridan and Joby Warrick. 2011. Other trends are not as positive from an U. Qatar has also played a key mediating role – helping to bring together Lebanon’s fractious factions in May 2008 when the country appeared on the verge of another civil war.washingtonpost. and Yemen reflect tectonic regional shifts that U.S. They provide critical intelligence for our success to prevent attacks. Yacoubian – 2/1 (Mona Yacoubian is senior adviser to the Center for Conflict Management at the U.
Two myths in particular must be debunked immediately if an effective counterterrorism "best practices" strategy can be developed [e. contemporary terrorists have introduced a new scale of violence in terms of conventional and unconventional threats and impact. provided the root causes of conflicts . The argument here is that law-enforcement efforts and military retaliation inevitably will fuel more brutal acts of violent revenge. operational command and control] will only increase terrorism. weapons. but its stated objective is to "unite all Muslims and establish a The second myth is that strong action against terrorist infrastructure [leaders.g. Why are the United States and Israel. 1940: "Victory at all costs. . Alexander ‘03 (Yonah-." should be tolerated if not glorified. Similarly. particularly in democratic societies. are still "shocked" by each suicide attack at a time of intensive diplomatic efforts to revive the moribund peace process through the now revoked cease-fire arrangements [hudna]. right of return. including misunderstanding of the manifold specific factors that contribute to terrorism's expansion. Lexis. For instance. Islamic Jihad] and secular entities [such as Fatah's Tanzim and Aqsa Martyr Brigades]] wish not only to resolve national grievances [such as Jewish settlements.a top Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip who was directly responsible for several suicide bombings including the latest bus attack in Jerusalem disrupted potential terrorist operations. August 28. victory in spite of terror. Israel and its citizens. The internationalization and brutalization of current and future terrorism make it clear we have entered an Age of Super Terrorism [e. Hamas.com Thursday File and fair elections are held. Unlike their historical counterparts. policies. Similarly. The conventional illusion is that terrorism must be justified by oppressed people seeking to achieve their goals and consequently the argument advanced by "freedom fighters" anywhere. victory however long and hard the road may be: For without victory. radiological. it behooves those countries victimized by terrorism to understand a cardinal message communicated by Winston Churchill to the House of Commons on May 13. a former State Department Middle East expert who is now at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. "How will cooperation with the United States on counterterrorism develop in the view of these new constraints? I would argue the space will contract. “Terrorism Myths and Realities”. B. & Director @ Inter-University for Terrorism Studies. past experience provides useful lessons for a realistic future strategy. the religionization of politics. It is not surprising. despite the collapse of the Oslo Agreements of 1993 and numerous acts of terrorism triggered by the second intifada that began almost three years ago. In sum. strengthening international cooperation]. For example.S. and the exploitation of the media by terrorist propaganda and psychological warfare. Palestinians religious movements [e... training." The assassination of Ismail Abu Shanab .g. analysts say." said Aaron David Miller. "give me liberty and I will give you death. Americans were stunned by the unprecedented tragedy of 19 al Qaeda terrorists striking a devastating blow at the center of the nation's commercial and military powers. as well as scores of other countries affected by the universal nightmare of modern terrorism surprised by new terrorist "surprises"? There are many reasons. Jacob) the international community failed. Even the United States and Israel have for decades tended to regard Last week's brutal suicide bombings in Baghdad and Jerusalem have once again illustrated dramatically that terrorism as a mere tactical nuisance or irritant rather than a critical strategic challenge to their national security concerns. Likewise. thus far at least. social and economic . weak punishment of terrorists." encourage further terrorist attacks.g.S. 2001. The first illusion is that terrorism can be greatly reduced. Jerusalem] but primarily to destroy the Jewish state. biological.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 75/148 Cross-X. Prof. there is the danger it will paralyze governments and thereby The prudent application of force has been demonstrated to be an effective tool for short. if not eliminated completely. The Islamist group has renounced violence but is openly hostile to Israel and may call for more independence from U. to understand the magnitude and implications of the terrorist threats to the very survival of civilization itself. such as lack of a universal definition of terrorism. nuclear and cyber] with its serious implications concerning national. the U. This traditional rationalization of "sacred" violence often conceals that the real purpose of terrorist groups is to gain political power through the barrel of the gun. Washington Times. if this perception continues to prevail. funding. recruitment. military operation in Iraq eliminated Saddam Hussein's regime as a state sponsor of terror. defused a "ticking bomb. in violation of fundamental human rights of the noncombatant segment of societies. Osama bin Laden's international network not only opposes the presence of American military in the Arabian Peninsula and Iraq. Thus. regional and global security concerns. there is no survival.and long-term deterrence of terrorism. therefore. double standards of morality. chemical. government that follows the rule of the Caliphs. that on September 11.political. the Hebron commander of the Islamic Jihad." Clearly. The impact is extinction. propaganda.are addressed. Israel's targeted killing of Mohammed Sider.
"A different government in Cairo may not see Iran as quite the same kind of threat. they are the best. officials secretly "rendered" terrorism suspects to countries such as Egypt for interrogation. Radical takeover means the US is fighting blind. the United States had a window into the Soviet Union through Iran. 2001. according to analysts. The cooperation became public after revelations surfaced that U. Hoffman said the use of rendition has been on the decline. particularly since the Sept. since the United States and many governments no longer wanted to be associated with it. this will never be the same.-Egyptian counterterrorism work”. such as Gaza and Sudan. "We have the same kind of window into Iran and other countries via the Egyptians.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 76/148 Cross-X. February 13. by blocking the smuggling of arms and militants into Gaza and supporting Israel's blockade of the strip. then a strong U. government does not.html?hpid=topnews) CJC Egypt's intelligence cooperation is extensive. however. In the region. And the Egyptians have built up a trove of information on al-Qaeda and other radical Islamist groups in the Middle East.S.S.com Thursday File Egypt Intel = Best There is no other country that can replace Egypt’s intelligence system. noted that during the Cold War.S. "Whatever happens next. 11. Or they might just look for ways to use Iran as a foreign-policy lever" in their relationship with the West. Its security services have numerous sources in places where the U. The Egyptian General Intelligence Service "has the reputation of being one of the best-informed intelligence agencies on Islamist fundamentalism and its international dimensions. Hoffman said." he said.S. attacks.com/wpdyn/content/article/2011/02/12/AR2011021203581. . ally. And Egypt served as a counterweight to Iran. a terrorism expert at Georgetown University. 2011. counterparts. Mubarak's government played an important role in containing the Palestinian group Hamas." according to Jane's intelligence information service. Washington Post – 2/13 (Mary Beth Sheridan and Joby Warrick. “Mubarak resignation throws into question U. Egypt's security services have worked closely on operations with their U. http://www." In addition to passing on intelligence. Human rights groups have denounced the practice because of the notorious torture record of those nations' security services. Washington Post Staff Writers.S.washingtonpost. Bruce Hoffman.
http://www. Bush’s administration.has complicated the administration's response to the popular uprising in Egypt." said Marina Ottaway. The dual nature of diplomacy -.com/2011/02/03/world/middleeast/03diplomacy. Algeria and other dictatorial regimes in the region that the United States has taken it easy on in order to secure help for fighting terrorism. MARK LANDLER and MARK MAZZETTI. Effective diplomacy in Egypt is critical to a peaceful resolution of the crisis that renews our diplomatic credibility which is critical to fighting terrorism. Stone – 1/31 (Andrea Stone." said Nathan Brown. and officials and outside experts said that losing Mr. “Sudden Split Recasts U. Just as WikiLeaks has been credited with setting off the revolution in Tunisia. A peaceful solution undermines Al Qaeda’s narrative.and appears to be doing behind the scenes -. Or perhaps not. that does huge damage to the Al Qaeda narrative.Vice President Joe Biden told the PBS News Hour that Mubarak is not a dictator -. The same realpolitik has been in play in the relation with Yemen. 2011.S.nytimes. the administration has done a good job of reacting. http://www. pluralistic transition. Political Analyst for Politics Daily. Mubarak or President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen would deal a short-term blow to its counterterrorism campaign. NY Times – 2/2 (HELENE COOPER. With the popular revolts in Egypt and Yemen — and a government already deposed in Tunisia — American counterterrorism officials are concerned that radical factions in those countries could find a new foothold amid the chaos.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 77/148 Cross-X. “If the street protests lead to a peaceful.but Boston University international relations professor Richard Augustus Norton said overall. For the United States. Foreign Policy”. February 2. director of the Middle East program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The United States is heavily reliant on foreign partners.com Thursday File Egypt – Counterterrorism Radicalization in Egypt would undermine US counterterrorism efforts. “There’s part of this that’s dangerous to Al Qaeda. leaked cables about Egypt illustrate a complex relationship of subtle shifts between coddling and arm-twisting.com/2011/01/31/egyptian-crisis-biggest-foreign-test-yet-for-obamaadministratio/) CJC Officials were "a little bit flustered at first" by the protests -.is communicate "the hopelessness of the situation to President Mubarak.html?_r=1&hp) CJC the unfolding crisis is about much more than just a rift with an ally.politicsdaily.especially as practiced in the Middle East -. who was a top counterterrorism official during George W. “Egyptian Crisis Biggest Foreign Test Yet for Obama Administration”.” said Juan Zarate of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. . as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell refused to criticize how the administration was handling the crisis. 1/31/2011. That narrative holds that authoritarian proAmerican governments should be deposed by violent jihad. The best the White House can do -. an expert on Arab politics at George Washington University. "We have closed our eyes to Mubarak because he has been useful to us in other ways. Republican leaders backed up that assessment.” he said.
S. allies with longtime autocratic rulers. . a longtime U. on the spot. http://www. you've got to get out ahead of change. "Obviously. “ Obama slams Iran government and praises Egypt army”.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 78/148 Cross-X. "If you're governing these countries. Staff Writers. he urged all governments in the region to deal peacefully with protests.reuters." Obama said. foe. two key U.S.com Thursday File Yemen Spillover Spillover is happening in Yemen. a critical US ally. Feb 15. as the pro-democracy fervor that toppled Mubarak rippled across the Middle East. you can't be behind the curve.com/article/2011/02/15/us-egypt-iran-obama-idUSTRE71E4IG20110215? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Anti-government demonstrations also simmered Tuesday in Yemen and Bahrain." But seizing the chance to put Iran. as the Egyptian military had done. we're concerned about stability throughout the region." Obama said. as opposed to Iran's example'. 'Let's look at Egypt's example. Reuters – 2/15 (Matt Spetalnick and Patricia Zengerle. 2011. "We have sent a strong message to our allies in the region saying.
"We're seeing protests emerge everywhere." Hamid pointed to the "end of this so-called stability-paradigm. especially if an anti-Syrian candidate is elected. 1/31/2011. the al-Qaeda sanctuary is ground zero in the U. "We're seeing protests all throughout the region." B. CBS News – 2/14 (Genevieve Kermani. The match that lights the flame may well be last Thursday's assassination of Lebanese MP Antoine Ghanem. Political Analyst for Politics Daily.S. why can't it happen elsewhere?" Hamid told CBS News senior White House correspondent Bill Plante. "Some [countries] are trying essentially to bribe their citizens. It's really hard to tell. February 14. and now that it's happened in Egypt. More importantly. "Yemen could be next. especially Yemen. Stone – 1/31 (Andrea Stone. “Will Egypt's Revolution Spark Domino Effect?”. 2001. Jordan could be next.html) CJC Hamid of the Brookings Doha Center said on "Washington Unplugged" Monday that the revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia could spark similar outcomes throughout the Middle East.html THE torturous road to peace in the Middle East becomes more excruciating every day and the cumulative effect of events in the region over the past week offer little hope for any reduction in what appear to be increasingly flammable tensions.com.cbsnews. a violent murder that pitched his divided nation further into turmoil.politicsdaily. http://www. As arguably A. Hamid added that the United States should try to adapt its foreign policy accordingly.com/2011/01/31/egyptian-crisis-biggest-foreign-test-yet-for-obamaadministratio/) CJC the most serious foreign policy crisis of the Obama administration unfolded at breakneck speed in the streets of Cairo and other Egyptian cities.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 79/148 Cross-X. Yemen. Jordan. as we've seen in Kuwait. at Syria. If anything. the White House and diplomats at the State Department have struggled to keep up with developments.com/8301-503544_162-20031888503544. Protests have been seen in recent days in Algeria. Bahrain and Iran. http://www. Yemen and Jordan. and by implication its ally. At the same time." he said. any instability could fan the flames of civil war in a country that has been a pivotal test-run for democracy in the region since September 11. As Plante noted. Staff Writer CBS News. “Egyptian Crisis Biggest Foreign Test Yet for Obama Administration”." stating that countries throughout the Middle East are suddenly taking new approaches to respond to their citizens' needs. Those in Saudi Arabia. Mr Ghanem's death introduces an unwelcome element of instability ahead of tomorrow's crucial presidential elections. any conflict will spillover The Age 9/24/2007 “Tempers must remain cool as the Middle East heats up”.com Thursday File Spillover -> Yemen = Terrorism Preventing spillover from Egypt is critical to keeping terrorist hotspots from collapsing like Yemen. they have kept an eye out for trouble in nearby countries. Shadi and what I think people are saying is if it first happened in Tunisia. His death was the latest in a string of attacks against prominent critics of Lebanon's neighbour and former powerbroker Syria. fear the revolution that began in Tunisia could target them next. protesters remain on the streets in that country in an effort to remind the military "who's in charge of Egypt's revolution. the talk now is of war. among others. though Hosni Mubarak is no longer the president of Egypt. the most notable being the 2005 killing of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri. fight against terrorism. people are drawing inspirations from the Egyptian model. Continued Egyptian protests are sparking a wave of uprising across the Middle East diplomacy will be critical to keep stability. Syria ***Instability Shell*** . The killing has been widely condemned by the international community and the finger pointed. Middle East is powder keg. National security officials huddled with Egypt experts in the White House while the president spoke by phone to leaders in the region. 2011." he said.au/news/editorial/tempers-must-remain-cool-as-the-middle-east-heatsup/2007/09/23/1190486129857. http://www.theage. Iran. Already a basket case before recent street protests. once again.
Regional Conflicts Draw in the US and go Nuclear Jonathan Dean (Advisor on International Security Issues) 5/4/95 Union of Concerned Scientists We do not want this kind of world. Another suggestion is that the target was Iranian weapons destined for Lebanon's Hezbollah. and particularly by the US. as it has with the other high-profile assassinations of anti-Syrian leaders in Lebanon. This pointed admonition coincides with a string of reports emanating from Washington that the Bush Administration is running out of patience with diplomacy and is intensifying its plans for air strikes against Iran. Beyond the loss of life and productive capability in armed conflict. the United States and other industrial countries pay for these conflicts by losing their investments and their trade in goods and services. Meanwhile. have done in Germany. Mohamed ElBaradei. is connected to another. remain mired in political haggling over what is to be brought to the negotiating table. denied any involvement. Democracies and free markets are spreading. The events in Lebanon and the debate over Iran run parallel with Israel's declaration of the Gaza Strip as "hostile territory" and Israeli opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu's confirmation that two weeks ago Israel carried out an air attack deep inside Syria. and it is this very mutuality that can make one act. The French also added fuel to the fire when Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner warned the world to "prepare for the worst and the worst is war". There has also been speculation that the raid served as a "dry run" for a possible Israeli or US attack on Iran. announced that Iran had already prepared a plan to attack Israel if it bombed his country. Talk of war further intensified after the deputy commander of Iran's air force. The Middle East is now overheated and potentially explosive. and Australia must impress upon its allies that. In the long run. and they pay in increased domestic frictions for the waves of migrants and refugees loosed by conflict. protracted regional violence creates conditions and motivation for developing nuclear weapons which can directly threaten our security. Iran's only Arab ally. and this should be carried out with haste. C. in a part of the world where every action can easily be met with a disproportionate reaction. Their expansion is the best general guarantee for peace. as its clandestine nuclear arms program. These threats coincide with growing international pressure on Iran to abandon what is regarded by the West.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 80/148 Cross-X. The head of the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency. a move UN officials described as an "out of control" drift to war.com Thursday File has. quickly entered the fray and warned against the use of force against Iran. including hundreds of thousands of refugees from the Balkans. which he threatened to use on American targets in the Middle East. US efforts to ensure the success of a Middle East peace conference. They pay most of the costs for humanitarian relief and rehabilitation. Beyond this. Look at what excessive rates of migration. . there is more mileage in diplomacy than in any military solution. such as the murder of a Lebanese MP. every event. more so since the Iraq war. We cannot afford it. somewhat ingenuously. with its arson murders by extremists. have dangerous consequences for the region as a whole. This war of words was further escalated when a senior commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard chose to outline the capability of his country's ballistic missiles. unrestrained regional conflicts can become conflicts which can draw in the United States and other major powers. on a site that it believed was being equipped for nuclear development by North Korea. But democracies and free markets cannot flourish in an increasingly interknit world unless there is some modicum of order. In the Middle East. every tension. planned for November. General Mohammad Alavi. Calls have been made for UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to launch an international probe into the bombing.
It is an uprising that appears to have taken by surprise everyone from the White House to the man being touted as the most likely transitional leader. with a caretaker government working towards change. are refusing to leave until Mr Mubarak surrenders office.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 81/148 Cross-X. . The extraordinary battle being played out in the centre of Cairo will decide the future not just of Egypt. and meanwhile he intends to oversee the transition to a new leader. yet a week after the uprising began. A combination of economic woes and mass unemployment.au/news/opinion/high-stakes-in-the-square/story-e6frg71x1225999765488) CJC EGYPT'S transition will determine stability in the region. The Egyptian President is insisting that while he will step down in September. but of the Middle East. have spilled into the street. but however ad hoc these protests. That need for stability has driven the West's approach to Mr Mubarak's 30 years in power. But the past few days have shown that acceptance by Egyptians of the trade-off between rights and stability can no longer be assumed. against the odds and despite the violence. the US President is signalling he must leave before that. The lack of an organised political opposition in Egypt has become apparent in recent days. the mood for change cannot be ignored. and however weak the civil society. Nobel Peace Prize winner Mohamed ElBaradei. He has been the strongman of the Middle East.theaustralian.com Thursday File Ext – Instability Egypt instability threatens Middle East instability. The stakes are high. The cry is for democracy: the risk is to the stability that has defined Egypt for decades. The Australian – 2/4 (“High stakes in the square”. http://www.com. In the middle are the protesters in the square who. along with dissatisfaction with a long-term autocratic leader. whose ability to balance domestic demands and regional imperatives has made his nation a secular bulwark against fundamentalist Islam and the West's strongest Arab ally. February 04. it remains far from certain whether either Hosni Mubarak or Barack Obama will be able to deliver a sustainable outcome. The stability of the 80-million-strong nation and of the region is in play as protesters clash with progovernment supporters in Tahrir Square. 2011.
antiterrorism efforts. The developments came as security forces in Yemen. The parallel protests against key allies and enemies of the U. Obama praised the courage of protesters and said the Iranian regime was "pretending" to celebrate Egypt's revolt while "gunning down and beating people who were trying to express themselves peacefully" at home. 2011.S. and Julian Barnes.. State Department spokesman Philip Crowley put out a statement saying the U. which hosts the headquarters for the U.wsj.. fought back protesters for a fifth day.S. "We also call on all parties to.refrain from violence. “Wave of Unrest Rolls Into Gulf”.S. in marked contrast to their relative silence on Iran during the last wave of protests in Iran in 2009." he added. The White House is trying to balance its desire to encourage what President Barack Obama called Tuesday "certain universal values" with U.com Thursday File ME Diplomacy – Bahrain & Yemen Uprisings in Bahrain and Yemen have US diplomats on their toes to balance strategic interests. sharpened the difficulty for the Obama administration.S. Iranian protesters and aimed tough words at Tehran on Tuesday. Wall Street Journal – 2/16 (Joe Parkinson. FEBRUARY 16. Later.com/article/SB10001424052748704409004576145711833269124. http://online. Neither leader spoke Tuesday about the movements in Bahrain and Yemen. the government threatened leaders of Monday's protests there with execution and made a fresh wave of arrests. as fast-moving uprisings have unseated regimes in Tunisia and Egypt and triggered opposition rallies in Algeria. Jordan and elsewhere. Navy's Fifth Fleet patrolling the Gulf. though the president was questioned about both during a news conference. is "very concerned" about the violence and is urging the regime to investigate protester deaths as quickly as possible. Reporters for the Wall Street Journal. The funeral of a demonstrator here Tuesday swelled into growing clashes with security forces amid the gleaming new skyscrapers of this financial capital. . In Iran. Mr. and the first to pit a Shiite Muslim majority against Sunni rulers—heightening the dilemma for the U. strategic interests.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 82/148 Cross-X.S.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0#) CJC Bahrain—The Middle East's wave of popular revolts helped spur the largest street rebellion in years in a Persian Gulf monarchy. The president and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton both offered encouragement to MANAMA. as it struggles to pursue its interests in the region. Adam Entous.S. an important ally in U.
“U. homeland.S. official said the funds would be invested in a special Yemeni counter- terrorism unit that is operated under Yemen's interior ministry and now totals around 300 people. Wall Street Journal – 2/16 (Joe Parkinson.wsj.S.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 83/148 Cross-X. Diplomats are working for a solution to ensure that Bahrain allows political reforms and to quell the uprising.reuters. the official told Reuters.S. The funds are unrelated to another $120 million earmarked for Yemen in President Barack Obama's 2012 budget request unveiled on Monday. Adam Entous. Wall Street Journal – 2/16 (Joe Parkinson. The money would assist counter-terrorism efforts against AQAP which is the biggest threat of terrorist attacks. head of the National Counterterrorism Center. http://online. The funding.S. Yemen is under threat of collapsing. security. A. FEBRUARY 16. at the same time as he struggles to control southern secessionists and to cement a fragile truce with rebels in the north. and development challenges" pose the greatest threat to that poor Arab nation since its 1994 civil war. Reuters – 2/14 (Phil Stewart. The request includes $35 million in additional military assistance for Yemen and $69 million in economic assistance. Stable Yemen government.-bound cargo planes with toner cartridges packed with explosives.S. http://www. speaking on condition of anonymity.S. Reporters for the Wall Street Journal.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0#) CJC Some U. The group has claimed responsibility for a failed Christmas Day attack in 2009 aboard a U. to spend $75 million on new Yemen military training”. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper told Congress last week that Yemen's "myriad political. ***Bahrain Shell*** . inspired by uprisings that toppled Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak and Tunisia's President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali. which has yet to be approved by Congress. The U. officials believe if the current government fell in Yemen. airliner and a more recent attempt last year to blow up two U. Feb 14.S. and Julian Barnes.S. U. Staff Reporter.com/article/2011/02/14/us-usa-yemenidUSTRE71D7AQ20110214? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC The United States aims to spend $75 million to double the size of a special Yemeni counterterrorism unit.com Thursday File Yemen Counter Terrorism Obama is pushing to double support for counter-terrorism efforts in Yemen to fight al Qaeda. Yemen is the home to al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. 2011. official said on Monday. and officials say a collapse of the weak government could give the group free rein. and Julian Barnes.com/article/SB10001424052748704409004576145711833269124. a U. U. “Wave of Unrest Rolls Into Gulf”. Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh. told Congress last week he saw AQAP as the biggest current threat to the U. Those operations include training commandos and conducting counter-terrorism strikes. He is also under pressure to quash the resurgent al Qaeda wing in the impoverished Arabian Peninsula state. FEBRUARY 16. 2011. is part of a broader effort to increase pressure on al Qaeda's Yemen-based affiliate. al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Adam Entous. “Wave of Unrest Rolls Into Gulf”. operations in the country could be hamstrung.S. or AQAP. in power for 30 years. This is separate from his budget. and critical economic assistance to stabilize the country. Reporters for the Wall Street Journal. would gut US counter-terrorism efforts globally and allow the fast spread of al Qaeda. Michael Leiter. has faced growing protests in recent weeks from thousands of Yemenis. 2011.
though they have stopped short of trying to remove the ruling family from power. a nonprofit public-policy research organization headquartered in Arlington. naval forces in the Gulf. Naval War College Review.com/article/SB10001424052748704409004576145711833269124. 2011. But parliamentarians from the Shiite bloc. on Tuesday suspended their participation in the body.com 84/148 Thursday File http://online. Navy to relocate . Deterrence must include a clear message to Iran that it cannot alter the strategic situation in the region . ally—to survive by meeting some demands. http://www.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0#) CJC the Obama administration fears unrest in Bahrain could undercut U. with 18 of 40 seats. in solidarity with the protesters. and Julian Barnes.com/article/SB10001424052748704409004576145711833269124. Iran’s actions of principal concern to the United States include its nuclear program. 62. where our national security is at stake. http://online. and since 1991 in Kuwait. 4. In response. No. The split U. sometimes violently. not remove them. While the ruling family still holds nearabsolute power. Shiite leaders have pushed. Bahrain's Sunni Muslim rulers have long faced a restive Shiite population that alleges economic and political discrimination. and other issues within the institute’s national security program. Gouré and Grant – 9 (Dr.navy. Her research focuses on airpower.mil/getattachment/c866a012-4a28-4627-86f8-38d0b627e710/U-S--NavalOptions-for-Influencing-Iran---Daniel-G) CJC A central focus of U. Dr.S. imperatives also were on display in the Egyptian revolt. forces in Iraq.wsj.military deployments in the Persian Gulf is to deter Iran from taking actions deemed inimical to American interests. Reporters for the Wall Street Journal.S. B. Virginia.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0#) CJC "The goal is to press to reform these governments. Navy's Fifth Fleet make it a critical port for the Navy vessels deployed to counter Iran and protect the Persian Gulf. where even minor unrest might roil world-wide oil markets. and efforts to undermine U. Bahrain collapse would result in US losing basing for the Navy’s 5th Fleet. the kingdom has liberalized more than most of its Gulf neighbors. NAVAL OPTIONS FOR INFLUENCING IRAN”. Iran’s efforts to develop asymmetric capabilities designed to hold U.S." Christopher Boucek.S.wsj. The move robs Bahrain's government of a legitimate political party with which to negotiate a settlement. allies. when the administration initially tried to encourage peaceful protests while urging the government of Hosni Mubarak—a longstanding U.S. assistance to anti-U. Vol. support for extremist groups in the region. Bahrain's housing of the U. Adam Entous. forces and allies in the region at risk or to contest movement in the Gulf must also be considered as potentially destabilizing.S. If Bahrain's Sunni-led government were to be forced from power—something protesters haven't yet made a focus of their demands— some fear a new government might seek closer ties to Iran and force the U. a Middle East analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. American planners must consider the possibility that Iran may threaten to resort to military force should the pressures on Tehran to change its behaviors become intolerable.S. Rebecca Grant is a senior fellow of the Lexington Institute. called Al-Wafaq. joint operations. interests in a region where a significant chunk of the world's oil is produced and transported each day. He is involved in a wide range of issues as part of the institute’s national security program. In addition. 5th Fleet is critical to deterring Iranian aggression in the Middle East. The presence of U. Wall Street Journal – 2/16 (Joe Parkinson. critical to countering Iran and protect the Persian Gulf. cyberspace.S.S. “U. C.S. Likewise. Gouré is a vice president with the Lexington Institute. “Wave of Unrest Rolls Into Gulf”.nwc. is a visible demonstration of the interest of the United States in the region and of commitment to secure its national interests and defend allies. Autumn 2009.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. for more political rights over the years. FEBRUARY 16. The spillover to Gulf States would result in massive oil price spikes. a viable Shiite opposition has gained a growing voice in the country's parliament. Another concern is that an uprising in Bahrain could spill into next-door Saudi Arabia or Kuwait. Although it lacks oil.S.
and indeed. the young Serb nationalist jumped into the shallow river that runs through the city and was quickly seized. David Bosco is a senior editor at Foreign Policy magazine. This campaign should be accompanied by clear demonstrations— through exercises. needs to conduct its own information campaign. 2002 [John Steinbach.. Deterrence theory suggests a number of potential options: preemption/first strike. the awareness of peace's fragility is particularly acute. North Korea and Iran are developing nuclear capabilities. Iranian aggression causes World War 3."(35) General Amnon Shahak-Lipkin. Revolutionary Guards surging across the border into Iraq. as the world watches the violence in the Middle East. July 23. But the events he set in motion could not be so easily restrained. "Whoever believes that Israel will ever sign the UN Convention prohibiting the proliferation of nuclear weapons. There may be as much hyperbole as prophecy in the forecasts for world war. Egypt and Saudi Arabia face violent street protests demanding retribution against Israel — and they eventually yield. Bosco. and long-range missile technology is spreading like a virus.25 The United States. To accomplish this. March 3.ca/articles/STE203A. Nuclear-armed India is still cleaning up the wreckage from a large terrorist attack in which it suspects militants from rival Pakistan. Taliban militants are burning schools and attacking villages in southern Afghanistan as the United States and NATO struggle to defend that country's fragile government. either alone or in combination. It is never possible to talk to Iran about no matter what. After Iran has recovered from the shock. Iran is relying on a strategy of asymmetric warfare —in essence. Iran has engaged in a series of information operations intended to create the impression that it is capable of exerting its military power in the Persian Gulf."Israel's insistence on the independent use of its nuclear weapons can be seen as the foundation on which Israeli grand strategy rests.org/forums/0016/viewtopic. The world is awash in weapons. The Israeli government decides to strike the convoy and Iranian nuclear facilities simultaneously. for the entire planet. It may be possible to threaten preemption or retaliation with conventional forces even against a nuclear-armed adversary. 2002 (http://www. retaliation. triggering a major regional war. 7/23/2006. It is clear from Israel Shahak that Israel has no interest in peace except that which is dictated on its own terms. “Could This Be the Start of World War III?” http://usc. The understanding that small but violent acts can spark global conflagration is etched into the world's consciousness."(37) and Munya Mardoch..glo. Director of the . The bloodshed in Lebanon appears to be part of a broader upsurge in unrest. however much it may try. together with its allies. intelligence officials spot a shipment of longer-range Iranian missiles heading for Lebanon. bent on striking Israel's American allies. Steinback.html)] The Israeli nuclear arsenal has profound implications for the future of peace in the Middle East. 2006 [David. "the size and sophistication of Israel's nuclear arsenal allows men such as Ariel Sharon to dream of redrawing the map of the Middle East aided by the implicit threat of nuclear force.com 85/148 Thursday File through the use of force. D. Certainly about writing in Haaretz said. he must be confronted by the likelihood that the opponent will impose unacceptable costs or negate the effects of his actions. In other words. The recipient of the deterrent/dissuasion message must consider either his fate too painful or his gain too small to justify his current behavior. shattered four empires and dragged more than two dozen countries into war. and cooperative activities with allies—that the United States can rapidly defeat Iran’s asymmetric warfare strategy. By David Bosco. guerrilla warfare at sea. and has absolutely no intention of negotiating in good faith to curtail its nuclear program or discuss seriously a nuclear-free MiddleEast. Jordan." former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said last week. and defenses. The reverberations from Princip's shots in the summer of 1914 ultimately took the lives of more than 10 million people. Iranian sources claim that the Islamic Republic’s navy can close the Gulf. Center for Research on Globalization. Consider the following scenarios: • Targeting Iran: As Israeli troops seek out and destroy Hezbollah forces in southern Lebanon. The heart of deterrence and dissuasion is the promise of unacceptable consequences."(34) According to Seymour Hersh. fleet deployments. former Israeli Chief of Staff is quoted "It is never possible to talk to Iraq about no matter what. "We're in the early stages of what I would describe as the Third World War. Europe was at war. Senior Editor at Foreign Policy Magazine. E. But it's not hard to conjure ways that today's hot spots could ignite. Iraq is suffering through one of its bloodiest months since the U. is day dreaming. Two months later. there are plenty of scenarios for global conflagration. Certain religious websites are abuzz with talk of Armageddon.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.S.php? p=403&sid=95896c43b66ffa28f9932774a408bb4b] ARMAGEDDON Could This Be the Start of World War III? As the Middle East erupts. In recent years.-led invasion in 2003. although the persuasiveness of a nonnuclear response to a nuclear threat is uncertain. This hot summer. Global nuclear war. Governments in Syria. After emptying his revolver.globalresearch. Some see the start of a global conflict. 2006 IT WAS LATE JUNE in Sarajevo when Gavrilo Princip shot Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife.
.S. the unilateral possession of nuclear weapons by Israel is enormously destabilizing.. an unindicted war criminal with a bloody record stretching from the massacre of Palestinian civilians at Quibya in 1953. Israel no longer needs U. nuclear targeting strategy. and perceive its existence as the paramount threat to peace in the region. if the familar pattern(Israel refining its weapons of mass destruction with U. would now be a strong probability. once unthinkable except as a last resort. and even the threat of nuclear war. . During a future Middle Eastern war (a distinct possibility given the ascension of Ariel Sharon. the existence of an arsenal of mass destruction in such an unstable region in turn has serious implications for future arms control and disarmament negotiations. spy secrets. (43) (Since launching its own satellite in 1988. seizing control of Israeli nuclear weapons.S. or some secular right-wing Israeli fanatics.) Meanwhile. a perhaps unique exception being the Iraqi SCUD attacks during the Gulf War. the launching of missiles on to Israeli territory is regarded as 'nonconventional' regardless of whether they are equipped with explosives or poison gas. Israel's current President said "The nuclear issue is gaining momentum(and the) next war will not be conventional. ".. requiring their own weapons of mass destruction. or some some of the delerious Israeli Army generals.cannot be precluded. "The moral and political meaning of nuclear weapons is that states which renounce their use are acquiescing to the status of Vassal states. All those states which feel satisfied with possessing conventional weapons alone are fated to become vassal states.com Thursday File Israeli Institute for the Development of Weaponry."41) and Ezar Weissman.while israeli jewish society undergoes a steady polarization. if not for all out nuclear war.. According to Shahak.." . "The prospect of Gush Emunim. as the Iraqis did. at the very least."(39) The Arab states. to the massacre of Palestinian civilians at Sabra and Shatila in 1982 and beyond) the possible Israeli use of nuclear weapons should not be discounted."(40) (Which requires a "nonconventional" response. Seymour Hersh warns.. a nuclear escalation. long aware of Israel's nuclear program.or should any Arab nation fire missiles against Israel.the deepening Middle East conflict could trigger a world conflagration. According to Shahak. complicity) is not reversed soon. bitterly resent its coercive intent. It is widely reported that the principal purpose of Jonathan Pollard's spying for Israel was to furnish satellite images of Soviet targets and other super sensitive data relating to U.for whatever reason..) Israeli nukes aimed at the Russian heartland seriously complicate disarmament and arms control negotiations and."(42) Russia and before it the Soviet Union has long been a major(if not the major) target of Israeli nukes.. and dramatically lowers the threshold for their actual use. the influence of the radical right becomes stronger.S.. In the words of Mark Gaffney. the Israeli security system increasingly relies on the recruitment of cohorts from the ranks of the extreme right. said in 1994."(38) As Israeli society becomes more and more polarized.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 86/148 Cross-X. "Should war break out in the Middle East again. "In Israeli terminology.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 87/148
Bahrain is critical to US defense strategy in the Middle East. The 5th Fleet ensure oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, and deters Iran. CBS News – 2/16 (Staff; “Navy's 5th Fleet in Bahrain Eyes Unrest Warily”; February 16, 2011; http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/02/16/501364/main20032183.shtml) CJC Unrest surging through the Arab world has so far taken no toll on the American military. But that could change if revolt washes over the tiny Persian Gulf kingdom of Bahrain longtime home to the U.S. Navy's mighty 5th Fleet and arguably the Middle East anchor of U.S. defense strategy. The discontent that has spilled into the streets of Bahrain's capital, Manama, this week features no anti-American sentiment, but the U.S. has a lot at stake in preserving its dominant naval presence in the Gulf. In announcing that it is "very concerned" about violence linked to the
WASHINGTON protests, the State Department on Tuesday underscored Bahrain's strategic importance as a U.S. partner. "The United States welcomes the government of Bahrain's statements that it will investigate these deaths, and that it will take legal action against any unjustified use of force by Bahraini security forces," said department spokesman P.J. Crowley. "We urge that it follow through on these statements as quickly as possible." The 5th Fleet operates at least one aircraft carrier in the Gulf
Bahrain – 5th Fleet
Cross-X.com Thursday File
at all times, along with an "amphibious ready group" of ships with Marines aboard. Their presence is central to a longstanding U.S. commitment to ensuring the free flow of oil through the Gulf, while keeping an eye on a hostile Iran and seeking to deter piracy in the region. Anthony Cordesman, a Mideast defense specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Bahrain has security services capable of handling protesters and potentially backed by neighboring Saudi Arabia. Thousands of banner-waving protesters took over a main square in Manama
Tuesday in a bold attempt to copy Egypt's uprising. The demonstrations capped two days of clashes that left at least two people dead, and the king made a rare address on national television to offer condolences for the bloodshed. "It is a serious problem, but whether it's going to flare up any more seriously this time than all the other times is hard to say," Cordesman said. "The question is whether they can shake the security structure of the state." The implications for U.S. foreign policy and national security from the pro-democracy movements that have arisen in the Arab world - highlighted by Egypt's stunning revolution - is likely to be a topic Wednesday when Defense Secretary Robert Gates testifies before the House Armed Services Committee. Bahrain became a more prominent partner for the Pentagon after the 1991 Gulf War with Iraq; since then
it has granted U.S. forces increased access, plus permission to store wartime supplies for future crises.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 88/148
Cross-X.com Thursday File
Bahrain Spillover -> Gulf Oil States
Bahrain uprising spillover would be sectarian spilling over into critical Gulf Oil states. Wall Street Journal – 2/16 (Joe Parkinson, Adam Entous, and Julian Barnes, Reporters for the Wall Street Journal; “Wave of Unrest Rolls Into Gulf”; FEBRUARY 16, 2011; http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704409004576145711833269124.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0#) CJC Bahrain is a tiny, island kingdom in the oil-rich Gulf best known for its banking prowess, along with bars that cater to
nationals from alcohol-free Saudi Arabia next door. It pumps little crude itself, but the protests here have brought home to neighboring oil-rich capitals—Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha and Riyadh—a taste of the turmoil that had largely been limited to much poorer corners of the Arab world. It's also the first country experiencing the recent unrest in which the
often-explosive sectarian divide between Sunni and Shiite Muslims has emerged in a meaningful way. Shiites make up small minorities in other recent hot spots, including Egypt, Jordan and Yemen, but religious tensions haven't been a driving factor in unrest in those places. A sustained Shiite uprising in Bahrain would alarm Sunni rulers in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, all Gulf countries with sizable Shiite minorities. They worry about the unrest spilling across their borders, and the possibility Iran would have more opportunities to meddle in the region. Gulf rulers are often quick to blame Iran for instigating trouble among Shiite populations, though real Iranian influence in those communities has been limited.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 89/148
Cross-X.com Thursday File
Egypt -> Bahrain
Egypt has spilled over into Bahrain, threatening to out the Navy’s 5th Fleet and spillover throughout the Gulf region. NYT – 2/16 (Nicholas D. Kristof, Columnist; “Tunisia. Egypt. Bahrain?”; February 16, 2011; http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/17/opinion/17kristof.html) CJC
The gleaming banking center of Bahrain, one of those family-run autocratic Arab states that count as American allies, has become the latest reminder that authoritarian regimes are slow learners. Bahrain
is another Middle East domino wobbled by an angry youth — and it has struck back with volleys of tear gas, rubber bullets and even buckshot at completely peaceful protesters. In the early-morning hours on Thursday here in the Bahrain capital, it used deadly force to clear the throngs of pro-democracy protesters who had turned Pearl Square in the
center of the city into a local version of Tahrir Square in Cairo. This was the last spasm of brutality from a regime that has handled protests with an exceptionally heavy hand — and like the previous crackdowns,
this will further undermine the legitimacy of the government. “Egypt has infected Bahrain,” a young businessman, Husain, explained
to me as he trudged with a protest march snaking through Manama. Husain (I’m omitting some last names to protect those involved) said that Tunisia and Egypt awakened a sense of possibility inside him — and that his resolve only grew when Bahrain’s riot police first attacked completely peaceful protesters. When protesters held a funeral march for the first man killed by police, the authorities here then opened fire on the mourners, killing another person. “I was scared to participate,” Husain admitted. But he was so enraged that he decided that he couldn’t stay home any longer. So he became one of the countless thousands of prodemocracy protesters demanding far-reaching change. At first the protesters just wanted the release of political prisoners, an end to torture and less concentration of power in the al-Khalifa family that controls the country. But, now,
after the violence against peaceful protesters, the crowds increasingly are calling for the overthrow of the Khalifa family. Many would accept a British-style constitutional monarchy in which King Hamad, one of the Khalifas,
would reign without power. But an increasing number are calling for the ouster of the king himself. King Hamad gave a speech regretting the deaths of demonstrators, and he temporarily called off the police. By dispatching the riot police early Thursday morning, King Hamad underscored his vulnerability and his moral bankruptcy.
All of this puts the United States in a bind. Bahrain is a critical United States ally because it is home to the American Navy’s Fifth Fleet, and Washington has close relations with the Khalifa family. What’s more, in some ways Bahrain was a model for the
region. It gives women and minorities a far greater role than Saudi Arabia next door, it has achieved near universal literacy for women as well as men, and it has introduced some genuine democratic reforms. Of the 40 members of the (not powerful) Lower House of Parliament, 18 belong to an opposition party. Somewhat cruelly, on Wednesday I asked the foreign minister, Sheik Khalid Ahmed al-Khalifa, if he doesn’t owe his position to his family. He acknowledged the point but noted that Bahrain is changing and added that some day the country will have a foreign minister who is not a Khalifa. “It’s an evolving process,” he insisted, and he emphasized that Bahrain should be seen through the prism of its regional peer group. “Bahrain is in the Arabian gulf,” he noted. “It’s not in Lake Erie.” The problem is that Bahrain has educated its people and created a middle class that isn’t content to settle for crumbs beneath a paternalistic Arab potentate — and this
country is inherently unstable as a predominately Shiite country ruled by a Sunni royal family. That’s one reason Bahrain’s upheavals are sending a tremor through other gulf autocracies that oppress Shiites, not least Saudi Arabia. A. US-Israel relations are on the brink of collapsing. Failure by the US to appear engaged on the Egyptian crisis to prevent a takeover of the government by radicals, would be perceived by Israel as US abandonment. US must ensure continued diplomacy on the crisis to assure Israel and prevent an extremist takeover. Fabian – 2/15 (Jordan Fabian, Staff Writer at The Hill; “Israelis fretting over U.S. policy”; 02/15/11; http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/144065-israelis-fret-over-us-policy-afterprotests) CJC Israelis are worried about two more years of President Obama, and the crisis in Egypt is adding to their concerns. Israelis already have a cool relationship with Obama, who in
TEL AVIV, Israel — his first year as president called for an Israeli settlement freeze as a precondition to peace talks with the Palestinians. Obama’s 2009 speech in Cairo, which called for a “new beginning” between the West and the Muslim world, was also viewed with skepticism in Israel.
Now there are questions surrounding the leadership of Egypt, Israel’s traditional ally in the Arab world, as well as U.S. policy toward the Middle East. While Israelis uniformly recognize that the U.S.-Israel relationship is strong on the whole, many believe that the unrest in the Arab world could lead Obama to revert to familiar themes they view as hostile to their country’s interests. Former Israeli ambassador to the United States Zalman ***Israel Relations Shell***
the ideal realist alliance. The fact that there has not been a general Arab-Israeli war since 1973 is proof that this pax Americana. but it has voiced severe worry about the possibility of the country slipping into the hands of Islamic extremists who could undo its 1979 peace treaty with Israel.com/2009/02/16/six-escalation-scenarios-to-nuclearworld-war-iii/) Israel is especially dangerous because its leaders and supporters have made clear for years that if Israel was ever devastated by any kind of war or attack it would retaliate in indiscriminate “Samson Option” attacks against not just on Muslim cities.” “People who hold this view feel themselves correct to demand from Israel an endless series of dangerous strategic concessions. Since no one in the Gulf is sure that the United States has the staying power to maintain such a presence over time. argued that a “point of view” has emerged in Washington that “Israel is a problem.org/templateC06. the illusion of its unconditionality – underpins the pax Americana in the eastern Mediterranean.” Barbour said in an address to the Herzliya Conference. While Obama called for a “credible transition to democracy” in Egypt after President Hosni Mubarak formally stepped down on Friday. in return it is rewarded with nothing but more rocket attacks. supporting Israel has been a low-cost way of keeping order in part of the Middle East. Shoval said. has been a success. [beginning with] his Cairo speech. to anticipate my conclusion. but to keep the world’s great reserves of oil out of the grip of the West’s sworn enemies. have already begun to reopen a split between Obama and his potential Republican rivals on the Middle East.” American support for Israel -indeed. Given suspected U. US-Israel relations key to Middle East stability Kramer 06 – fellow at The Washington Institute and senior fellow at the Olin Institute. the Gulf keeps producing defiers of America.wordpress. Israel has expressed support for Egyptian democracy. Some believe these campaign arguments could eventually become policy differences that would be detrimental to Israel. “Obama’s approach to the Middle East.S. of course.php?CID=980) My answer. the problems the United States faces in the Persian Gulf stem from the fact that it does not have an Israel equivalent there. Haley Barbour. Mississippi Gov. . Three potential 2012 GOP candidates visited the Jewish state during the first five weeks of 2011. It has compelled Israel’s key Arab neighbors to reach peace with Israel and to enter the American orbit. Martin.” could be viewed as even more harmful to Israel. nor is it produced by the machinations of the “Israel Lobby. Russia could feel compelled to attack the United States for acts like a U.com 90/148 Thursday File Shoval said in an interview that a continued Obama effort to reach out to the Muslim world will be read in Israel as an effort to push Israeli interests to the side. and policymakers in both countries have said that the outcome could strain the American-Israeli relationship. not in the interests of Israel. for example. managed by the United States from offshore and without the commitment of any force. when candidates often make pledges or take positions they are later pressured to act upon. but against European and even Russian targets. but their comments offered a preview of the coming GOP attacks.” Fall 2006. and so it must massively deploy its own force at tremendous cost. It is. and do so peacefully. simply. would retaliate with thousands of nuclear bombs against the United States. “I am confident that the people of Egypt can find the answers. Six Escalation Scenarios to Nuclear World War III. B. based on the United States-Israel alliance. “The American Interest. In contrast. C.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. is this: United States support for Israel is not primarily the result of Holocaust guilt or shared democratic values. Harvard (Dr. nuclear attack on Iran. he placed his public focus on the Egyptian people’s struggle for democracy.washingtoninstitute.) Russia. even though they should have learned by now.http://pakalert. when Israel makes such concessions. nuclear primacy plans. The United States has to counter them.S.” he said. constructively and in the spirit of unity that has defined these last few weeks. http://www. Several potential Republican presidential candidates have called his response misguided. The unrest in Egypt has prompted divergent responses from President Obama and the Israeli government. The pressures of the campaign trail. (See “Israeli Nuclear Threats and Blackmail ” . From a realist point of view. from Khomeini to Saddam to Bin Laden to Ahmadinejad. 16 February. Extinction Moore 9—BA in pol sci from Wayne State (Carol. None of the Republicans publicly criticized Obama.
as the 2002 movie “Sum of All Fears” illustrates. Compare it to a room full of people embarrassed to cough. Once there is any use of nuclear weapons.S.com 91/148 Thursday File which is just a few hundred miles from its border. then President of Russia. . (Details ) And U. U. everyone else feels free to do so. leaders also could be spooked by a nuclear incident. Only a worldwide disarmament movement can stop it.” to nuclear war among most or all nuclear nations–”world nuclear war. it will be like giving permission for anyone to use them.N. On January 25. Any use of nuclear weapons probably will lead to a rapid escalation.” The U.S. imperialism and pre-emptive strikes cannot stop it. “out of control spiral. cannot stop it. came within three minutes of initiating a full nuclear strike on the United States because of one Norwegian scientific rocket Russians could not identify.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. 1995 Boris Yeltsin. but once one does.
" he said. 2011. while acknowledging there will be tough days ahead.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 92/148 Cross-X. . Saudi Arabia and Israel. European leaders. United Nations chief Ban Ki-moon said the army must allow free and fair elections to get back to civilian rule. Wall Street Journal – 2/11 (Staff. too. Arab League chief Amr Mussa hailed the Egyptian people and army for their "historic achievement" and called for national consensus. threatening a decades long balance of power in the Mideast. Military Takes Over”.wsj. "Egyptians have made it clear that nothing President Barack Obama said the less than genuine democracy will carry the day. http://online.com/article/BT-CO-20110211-713327. FEBRUARY 11. were put on the defensive as events rattled regional allies and foes alike. in particular. one that he thinks will be difficult but more democratic.com Thursday File Israel Brink Israel is on edge already. “AT A GLANCE: Egypt's Mubarak Steps Down.html) CJC Mubarak's departure marks the beginning of a new chapter in the Middle Eastern country. were united in calling for a swift transition to democracy.
Feinstein wanted to know the stated positions of the group with regards to the Middle East peace process. the chair of the committee. expressed concern about whether the U. http://www. CNN Reporter. 2011. Benson – 2/16 (Pam Benson. Sen. Diane Feinstein.com/2011/POLITICS/02/16/clapper. D-California.cnn.but he weapons into Gaza. intelligence committee knew enough about the Brotherhood's positions. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper. said his comment last week was misunderstood and he only meant that the group is trying to work within secular political systems. Clapper said in an opening statement Washington (CNN) -to Congress. In a series of questions to Clapper. speaking to the Senate Intelligence Committee.com Thursday File A2: Brotherhood Not A Threat Your evidence is citing Director of National Intelligence Clapper. indicating that they are NOT a secular organization. Clapper responded each time it was hard to say or he didn't know -.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 93/148 Cross-X. who has clarified his statements about the Muslim Brotherhood.S.comment/index. that it remains to be seen on Iran and he surmised they supported bringing ***Muslim Brotherhood*** . February 16. ties to Iran and the smuggling of weapons into Gaza.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss %2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS%3A+Politics%29) CJC The nation's top intelligence officer sought to clarify Wednesday a comment that was roundly criticized when he said that the Muslim Brotherhood was a "secular" group. The group itself is not secular. “Intel chief says his Muslim Brotherhood remark misunderstood”. added he would assess they are not in favor of a peace treaty.
spokesman for the long-banned Muslim Brotherhood. Dorell – 2/14 (Oren Dorell. whose forehead bore the calluses of those who prostrate themselves five times a day in prayer. said Abdel Fattah. 2/14/2011. punishing gays. A man was hacking up a calf on a wood stump. As he spoke late Saturday.com Thursday File Muslim Brotherhood Pushing For Control Muslim Brotherhood is pushing to take control of the government through elections. A bright puddle of blood ran into the street as the animal was slaughtered for a feast celebrating the Brotherhood's hopes for the future.com/news/world/2011-02-14-1Aegypt14_CV_N. "We basically want a government that will take on the demands of the people that were clear in the revolution of Tahrir Square.usatoday. The Brotherhood would seek "the preservation of AIRO — Ali Abdel his office in South Cairo. requiring Muslim women to cover their heads and shoulders in public and killing Muslims who leave their faith. sat at a laminate table in plans for Egypt under democratic rule. chattering in Arabic at aides in dark suits and discussing honor" by stoning adulterers. the "thump thump" of a cleaver could be heard just outside the unadorned office." . In the scramble for power among groups of various political identity after last week's ouster of President Hosni Mubarak. http://www. "Sharia law does not differ from the demands of the people. the Brotherhood — an Islamist group that has held as many as 20% of the seats in Egypt's parliament in recent years — is vowing to increase its influence on daily life in Egypt.htm) CJC Fattah." Abdel Fattah said. arranging the meat on a plastic sheet on the patio floor. answering phone calls. “Ideology shadows fight to rule the new Egypt”.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 94/148 Cross-X. Reporter at USA TODAY.
allowed direct elections for the first time. last month toppled the government of the majority pro-Western parties in Lebanon and installed its own candidate as prime minister. Hezbollah. says they would get 50%." he said. Wael Nawara of Al Ghad says the Brotherhood would gain 15% of the seats in an election today. who's an extremist. Reporter at USA TODAY. is a sinful Muslim. Makram-Ebeid estimates the Brotherhood would gain "only" 30% of parliament seats in elections involving 22 opposition parties she counts as vying for power. Mohamed Zarea. who keeps a large red tinted beard and a floor-length ochre robe. under pressure from the Bush administration on human rights issues. a U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 95/148 Cross-X. However. 56. a party could do a lot with such a percentage of the parliament's seats. a lawyer and human rights worker who deals with members of the Brotherhood.usatoday. Some conservative Muslims consider themselves more moderate and would not go along with an extremist program. Dorell – 2/14 (Oren Dorell. They would get 30% if elections were held now.htm) CJC How strong is the Brotherhood? Estimates vary on the political support the Brotherhood has in Egypt.S. Hezbollah did this despite having just 57 of the 128 seats in Lebanon's parliament. http://www. Mohamed Hossam Eldin Abdel Wahid. he said "attacks based on religion are wrong. 2/14/2011. which would be enough to control the government.-designated terrorist group and enemy of Israel.com Thursday File A2: Muslim Brotherhood Not Win Enough Seats Muslim Brotherhood would not have to win the majority. . “Ideology shadows fight to rule the new Egypt”. The movement gained 20% of seats in the parliament in 2005 when Mubarak. considers himself a conservative Muslim." "A Muslim who does not practice regulations of Islam. Selling scented oils to men outside a mosque in Giza. He says he memorized the Quran during a 20-year detention under Mubarak's emergency laws.com/news/world/2011-02-14-1Aegypt14_CV_N.
000 deaths.S. Obama is speaking bluntly with Mubarak about the need for change.” Ball persisted. No. and expressed their willingness to launch a coup to keep the shah in power. Carter appointed 68-yearold George Ball to sift through conflicting reports to determine just what the U. Such a plan. U. The letter was never sent. pro-Khomeini demonstrations broke out in every Iranian city. Noting Carter’s hesitation. State thought the shah was doomed and that Washington needed to reach some accommodation with the Khomeini camp.thedailybeast. President Obama is facing similar hard choices. and then met with Carter to render his verdict.” he reminded the president. turn affairs over to a reliable government. Brzezinski drafted a letter for Carter to send to the shah that baldly enjoined him to use force against the demonstrators.” Ball urged Carter to tell the shah to leave Iran. Fortunately. particularly to a man who is cut off from the normal sources. who they assumed would open corruption investigations that would lead back to the military.com Thursday File Egypt – Influence K2 Avoid Islam Rise American support is critical to ensure a transition that does not give power to the radical Muslim Brotherhood. with big swollen cities like Cairo and Tehran containing both the most and least educated people in the country: a relatively narrow educated elite and a broad mass of slum-dwellers. and Lebanese emergencies. but must hold on to police powers and military and foreign affairs. Brzezinski spoke of an “arc of crisis” in the Middle East—a wave of unrest in Islamic countries. The revolutions in Cairo and Tehran have much in common. backing. who is surrounded by sycophants. and set up a moderate caretaker government.-supplied militaries. More than just the right words will be needed. Egyptian.S. ambassador in Tehran. government confused and demoralized him. Ball worked hard for two weeks. “I can’t tell another head of state what to do. to reassure allies and deter the Soviets. What Huyser discovered was interesting. Although Brzezinski and Brown in . What they needed—all seven declared—was unflinching U. Just before the regime began to totter in 1978. read classified and unclassified reports from all sources. Ball’s moderates were used-up hacks who wouldn’t stand a chance against Khomeini’s mobs. and warned Carter that Brzezinski was recommending a course that would end in “1. Frozen by opposing views. But decades of repression and fake elections had crushed Iran’s secular parties. Wawro – 1/31 (Dr. and prevented Washington from acting swiftly and decisively to steer the Iranian revolution in a moderate direction.” America’s wisest course now would be to “work out the transfer of power to responsible hands before Khomeini comes back and messes everything up. Only the Shiite clergy—like the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt—remained intact and powerful as a political force.S. ambassador in Tehran in 1970. The president must prop up the shah. Geoffrey Wawro is the General Olinto Mark Barsanti Professor of Military History and Director of the Military History Center at the University of North Texas. but also moderates. ought to do about Iran. and to flood the streets with troops and tanks. Administration hardliners wanted the shah to “get tough.” a clear reference to Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood. the U. He is the author of Quicksand: America’s Pursuit of Power in the Middle East. Today in Cairo. strong internal security services and powerful. Both were triggered by new media—audiocassettes in Iran. or even topple the shah. Another wave of riots swept through Tehran in January 1979. The president has called for an “orderly transition. there was no credible moderate opposition to undergird a generals’ coup.S. to shut down the press.” The Carter administration was as startled by the revolution in Tehran as Obama was by the wave of revolutions from Tunis to Cairo. In December 1978. when he predicted. Washington did nothing. Both simmered under the rule of corrupt strongmen who had held power for three decades. The error in Tehran in 1979 was one of omission.” any truly democratic movement would “be in a reactionary obscurantist direction under the clergy. The seven Iranian generals Huyser met with expressed their readiness to kill “100. which held the most promise in late 1978. Carter sent General Robert Huyser to speak with the senior Iranian generals and gauge their attitude.” Carter refused to have that conversation with the shah. “One of the obligations of friendship is to give advice. and serve as a distant “regent” until things cooled down. would have to vest its hopes in the Iranian military. to restore the shah or an authoritarian regime.S.” As Carter reacted to events in Iran. The strategic threat of that—then and now—was outlined by the U.” others thought tens of thousands.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 96/148 Cross-X. were regarded in Washington as “family friends. Since most Iranians were “poorly educated and highly ignorant. Iranian generals met with the U. William Sullivan. The Obama team should be looking closely at Washington’s awful mismanagement of the Iranian revolution of 1978-79 to make sure they do not repeat the errors of the Carter administration. Both dynasts. “1/31/2011.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-01-31/egyptian-protests-mirror-1979revolution-in-iran/?cid=bs:archive7) CJC So far the Obama administration seems to be getting it right on Egypt. The shah was finished.” Carter protested.S. Carter’s CIA had predicted that nothing much would change in Iran through 1985: “Iran is not in a revolutionary or even pre-revolutionary situation. with big populations.000 Iranians” if necessary. vomited out in “a national regurgitation by the Iranian people. “You can tell a friend what you think. Brzezinski reopened his attack. beginning with Iran—that the Soviets might hijack. Both had complex societies. Brzezinski (joined by Defense Secretary Harold Brown and Energy Secretary James Schlesinger) thought the shah might relinquish some domestic authority. Hosni Mubarak and Shah Muhammed Reza Pahlavi. rifts in the U. When the shah left Iran in January 1979 to have his cancer treated.” to re-arrest political prisoners. just how Iranian demographics would shape the coming upheaval. Carter expressed astonishing diffidence.” and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has warned there must not be “a takeover that would lead to oppression. Just as we today worry that fundamentalists might hijack the Tunisian. purge the fundamentalist opposition.S. Vance was horrified. The generals feared the Islamists. Twitter and Facebook in Egypt—and both exploded in major regional states. with astonishing accuracy. http://www. was undone by fights between Cyrus Vance’s State Department and Zbigniew Brzezinski’s National Security Council. “Geopolitics is not a kindergarten class.” to borrow Hillary Clinton’s phrase. which was still loyal to the shah. Jordanian.
Khomeini’s komitehs— Islamic militias and revolutionary courts—were rounding up the shah’s courtiers. Sullivan cabled Washington on February 27. It wasn’t. mixed “provisional revolutionary government. who will loosen their grip but not permit the Muslim Brotherhood to knock over a “national unity government” as easily as Khomeini crushed Iran’s first. rather than in a country. Carter must have wished he had heeded the warning. The generals made a last appeal to Ambassador Sullivan for support.” an American colonel named Colin Powell observed from the Pentagon. The Iranian generals threw in the towel. the Iranian air force did the same in early February 1979. all our investment in an individual. he relayed the request to Washington. Carter selected a negative program: merely cultivating contacts with moderate Islamic clergy. most were arrested. Carter decided that Iran was Khomeini’s. or shot. and helped usher in the Islamic Republic of Iran. exiled.S. The Egyptian army must be restrained. The army stood down and let the demonstrations disarm it. “In Iran.” (When the embassy was actually seized eight months later. Embassy could no longer be protected.” Brown urged Brzezinski—Carter refused to roll the dice. but Carter remained inert. But the hand we played in 1979 was self-nullifying. officers. Mubarak should turn power over to a respected politician bolstered by Omar Suleiman’s reformed security services. and that the U. .Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 97/148 Cross-X. The president still effectively controlled the Iranian generals and might have fashioned a moderate reform coalition under their aegis.” None of this will be easily accomplished.) With Washington in retreat. refusing even to dispatch a carrier to the Persian Gulf. credible opposition moderates like Mohamed ElBaradei must be empowered to move the country forward without a breakdown in security or an Islamist coup.com Thursday File Washington and General Alexander Haig at NATO headquarters in Belgium were still for unleashing the Iranian military against the ayatollahs—“give the officers a go-ahead. The imperial military’s hour had seemingly arrived. our Iran policy fell with him. and politicians in the vain hope that they would counter Khomeini’s radicalism and step in if the ayatollah’s movement unraveled. warning that anti-American sentiment was boiling over in the streets and the press. “When the shah fell. Instead. Just as Egyptian fighter jets are orbiting Cairo in a show of strength. came to naught. which has vexed and weakened American policy for more than 30 years. the generals declared “neutrality”. He and his subordinates recommended the embassy staff be reduced to “six officers and a vicious dog. and America has only an auxiliary role.” President Obama is now holding our Egypt policy in his hands. He must move fast and deal bluntly with President Mubarak.
http://dyn. speaking on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” said Monday. when the first huge demonstrations rocked Cairo.” former Obama car czar Steve Rattner.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 98/148 Cross-X. That could have a disastrous impact on an economy that has just begun picking up steam. Muslim Brotherhood. the market doesn’t think it’s all that likely.S.”. POLITICO – 2/1 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico and Mike Allen is the chief political correspondent for Politico and Laura Rozen is a reporter at POLITICO. tankers would be forced to undertake the six-to-eight-week trek around the Horn of Africa. . especially if any such blockade includes Egypt’s critical Sumed pipeline. 2011. pinch point of the Mideast oil supply. “The question is whether that supply gets cut off at some point.com/printstory. but it controls the Suez Canal.H. but that’s a risk. decides to block the canal. experts say.” Oil traders have begun factoring in that risk: Since Friday. up to more than $92 per barrel.politico.cfm? uuid=DE7516BA-D472-D8ED-D73BCE853D37CED6) CJC Egypt produces no oil and is hardly an economic powerhouse with global reach. perhaps one dominated by the anti-U. “Egypt: Worst scenarios for W. If a new Egyptian government. driving per-barrel prices to $120 or more and gas prices at the pump well beyond $4 a gallon. “Right now. prices have soared about 7 percent. February 1.com Thursday File Brotherhood = Price Spikes Muslim Brotherhood control risks cutting off Oil from the Middle East devastating our econ recover and causing Oil Spikes.
2011. but the economic backdrop is similar. http://money. El Baradei. with a total investment of more than $7 billion over the past 17 years. In Iran. Apache's large investment in Egypt has not gone unnoticed by the markets. did not come about overnight.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 99/148 Cross-X. General Dynamics (GD. So if Egypt falls to an Islamic theocracy.com/2011/01/31/news/international/egypt_economic_interests.3 billion in military aid to Egypt. which led to the establishment of an anti-western Islamic Republic. Fortune 500). Fortune 500) and Raytheon (RTN. The US supplies wheat. It's not yet clear what kind of government would emerge if the current autocratic regime led by President Hosni Mubarak were to fall. and the US State Department. who is critical of President Obama's reluctance to call for Mubarak's resignation. who won a Nobel Peacce Prize for his leadership of the IAEA. from liberals to Islamic fundamentalists. bringing about the angst that we see today. like in Egypt. They provide support for older US-made military equipment. The most powerful group with the largest following usually comes out on top. But no company has more exposure to the energy sector in Egypt like Apache Corporation (APA. Fortune 500). and also sell Egypt new weapons. Lockheed Martin (LMT.com Thursday File Brotherhood = Econ Collapse Muslim Brotherhood coming into power would collapse Western economies. it will probably spell bad news for the western companies operating in the country. much of which is recycled back to US defense contractors like Boeing (BA. That could hurt the sales of companies like ConAgra (CAG. ranging from US foes like Syria to staunch US FORTUNE -allies like Jordan and Saudi Arabia. What is clear is that US economic interests in the entire region would be at risk if Egypt falls under the veil of Islamic fundamentalism. Egypt also has a small. which funds their activities. Wall Street has wiped $5 billion off Apache's market value since the riots began amid fears that a new government could expropriate their land concessions. making up around 10% of Egypt's total imports. Fortune 500). Disparate Egyptian opposition groups. Fortune 500). European oil companies like the UK's BP (BP) and Italy's ENI (E) have had a major presence in the country for decades drilling for oil and gas. January 31. It could lead to the expulsion of US and Western companies from Egypt and threaten the stability of more secular Arab states. Northrup Grumman (NOC. contributor. is pushing for a peaceful transition to democracy. ADM (ADM.ht m) CJC The recent demonstrations in Egypt have rocked world markets and sent investors scrambling for the exits. Fortune 500). Mohamed El Baradei. That is equivalent to about 50% of the estimated value of Apache's Egyptian assets. have banded together to oust Mubarak. Such a scenario could occur in Egypt. Western business in an Islamic theocracy But a revolution can quickly turn. is now leading the opposition groups' newly formed steering committee. The largest and most organized of the opposition groups is the Muslim Brotherhood. A confluence of economic changes in both countries helped widen the divide between the rich and the poor. A possible revolution in the most populous and influential nation in the Arab world shouldn't be taken lightly given the possibility of an anti-Western government coming to power in Cairo. It is by far the largest US investor in Egypt. corn and soybeans to Egypt averaging around $2 billion a year. and has several western energy companies working in the country. Fortune 500). There are of course very large differences between Arab Egypt today and Persian Iran 32 years ago. The revolution that swept Iran and seems to be festering in Egypt. The protests in 1978 and 1979. They eventually turned on their former coalition partners and wiped them out. The US also delivers $1.cnn. Fortune 500) and Cargill. The scenes from the protests in Egypt look eerily similar to ones that swept Iran 32 years ago. totally off guard. seemed to catch the world. It has no formal connection with Washington but it does have strong ties to Tehran. “Biggest corporate stakes in Egypt's power shift”. Egypt now accounts for a quarter of the company's earnings. They seemed to have sprung out of nowhere but offered some hope that the dictator ruling the country would fall to a more democratic regime. especially the United States. a banned Islamic resistance movement that is not on the friendliest of terms with the West. the Islamic fundamentalists had the poor firmly in their grasp and used their mass to overwhelm the other groups. but noteworthy energy sector. The United States is a major exporter to the country. CNN Money – 1/31 (Cyrus Sanati. It has said it wants to establish Sharia (Islamic) law in the country and ban all women and Christians from government (Christians make up 10% of the population of Egypt).fortune/index. which has alleviated some fears on Wall Street and Washington. like the F-4 and F-16 attack fighters. It's not without reason. .
We now face the possibility that a radicalized Egypt could be Obama's gift to the globe. whose domestic policy initiatives are coming apart at the seams.realclearpolitics. their 154 million almost equal the combined population of all the other nations in North Africa and the Middle East. Look at what Carter's abandonment of the Shah has cost the world and is likely to cost it in the future.com Thursday File Brotherhood = ME Instability Allowing the Muslim Brotherhood in the door would open all of the Middle East to extremism undermining American leadership globally and completely destabilizing the Middle East. It would literally open the door to a theocratic Iranian-style empire stretching from Morocco to Iran. . To the extent that it masquerades as a peaceful body. Inspired by an Islamic takeover in Egypt. Just as Richard Nixon helped to discredit Harry Truman President and defeat Democratic presidential nominee Adlai Stevenson in 1952 by trumpeting the question. Trent Lott (R-Miss. with each new theocratic conquest destabilizing its neighbor. 2011. Obama will have permanently damaged America's vital interests. where one nation after another falls to Islamism. a former political adviser to Sen. “ Obama Following a Very Risky Strategy With Egypt”. He needs to understand that the radical Islamists mean us ill and that any effort to appease them is bound to fail. Americans have regarded Obama's flirtation with the Arab street with a mild concern that he may be too naive in his understanding of that part of the world. By failing to back Mubarak. he may find himself confronted with a Middle Eastern version of the old domino theory. he will pay for it politically in 2012. Imagine if this president. We have had some terror attacks. But his policy of appeasement toward radical Islam has yet to have any bad consequence. The Muslim Brotherhood is allied closely with Hamas. to be sure. Obama is committing the same sin that Dwight Eisenhower did in Cuba and Jimmy Carter did in Iran.com/articles/2011/02/02/will_obama_lose_egypt_108751. http://www. If Egypt and Iran were to work in tandem. Together. they could control the region. February 2. Any coalition with the Brotherhood is as likely to remain secular as Adolf Hitler's early coalition with Paul von Hindenburg in Germany was likely to stay non-Nazi.) and President Bill Clinton. loses office over a foreign policy blunder. If Egypt falls. Morris – 2/2 (Dick Morris.html) CJC Obama better hope that the crowds clamoring for an overthrow of the Hosni Mubarak regime really do achieve a functioning liberal democracy rather than an Iranian-style theocracy.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 100/148 Cross-X. Remember that Iran has a population of 79 million and Egypt has 75 million. If he permits Egypt to slip through our fingers and go over to the Iranian sphere of influence. But losing Egypt to the grip of Islamic fundamentalism would be a huge blow to the United States. to Israel and to the entire Western world. but none have risen to the level of a cataclysm. "Who lost China?" Obama may well have to explain how and why he lost Egypt. Until now. it is a wolf in sheep's clothing. His re-election hopes may be doomed if Iran takes over. The Muslim Brotherhood will take over if it gets its foot in the door.
html) CJC Four days ago I wrote that. 2011. Political Reporter.the man who ran interference for the Iranian regime.realclearpolitics. many imams apparently told their flocks to go swell the demonstrators' ranks. between the Mubarak regime and the "spoilt children of Egypt's middle classes" -. and is the Muslim Brotherhood appropriating the revolution.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 101/148 Cross-X. The latter have reached for power fairly cleverly. against Bush." Let me update that. with the support of the Muslim Brotherhood. at Friday prayers. Warren – 2/3 (David Warren.because the Egyptian army is distancing itself from him -.com/articles/2011/02/03/face_in_the_crowd_108750. Mohamed ElBaradei -.com Thursday File Muslim Brother Hood Pushing For Power Muslim Brotherhood is rising to take power.are the valves fully opening. Then. "No one can predict what will come of" the Egyptian demonstrations. Only now that Mubarak's position is untenable -. But this support remained cautious. was chief UN atomic weapons inspector -- .inspired by the riots in Tunisia to try their luck in Tahrir Square. when he is now well placed for the succession to Hosni Mubarak. At first they presented themselves as entirely neutral. “Face in the Crowd”. http://www. "until fresh factors come into play. February 3.
.cfm?uuid=DE7516BA-D472-D8EDD73BCE853D37CED6) CJC The most obvious danger.com Thursday File Brotherhood = No MEPP Radical takeover will undermine Egypt-Israel Peace Accords and gut any possibility of a successful MEPP.com/printstory.” Munayyer added.” Even if Egypt and Israel don’t come to blows. is that any new Egyptian regime will almost certainly adopt a more militant stance toward its partner in peace for more than three decades. Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been meeting around the clock with advisers.H. “Egypt: Worst scenarios for W. And that could.”. according to administration officials. a more militant Cairo could wipe out whatever remaining hope lingered for an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal. “We’re not talking about another war. http://dyn. perversely. In fact. “But the illusion of a real peace with Israel is over. POLITICO – 2/1 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico and Mike Allen is the chief political correspondent for Politico and Laura Rozen is a reporter at POLITICO. one of the reasons the Egyptian army remains so popular among its people was its near success against Israel during the bloody Yom Kippur war in 1973. ally in the region.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 102/148 Cross-X.S. push Obama — a president who vowed to improve relations with the Arab world — back into a much closer alliance with Israel after two years of tense relations with the traditional U.politico. gaming out the various scenarios — ranging from chillier relations to A new Egypt-Israel conflict Nasser-type saber rattling in Cairo. February 1. 2011.
Martin Indyk. anxious that immediate elections would open wide the door to the Muslim Brotherhood (outlawed but experienced in running independent candidates at earlier elections) in the absence of other strong opposition parties. especially given the divergence of views between Washington and Cairo about the timetable for change and the role that should be played by Mr Mubarak. Time is needed anyway for changes to be made in the constitution to allow for more democracy.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 103/148 Cross-X. Immediate elections would result in a takeover by the Muslim Brotherhood. it appears likely. how long before anarchy forces the hand of the military? Some have wanted to present Tahrir Square as the "Berlin Wall" of the Middle East. The US must ensure that there is a transition government. whatever the timing. February 04. but popular protests do not always bear fruit -. The army did not intervene in the chaotic events in Tahrir Square yesterday as pro-Mubarak riders on horses and camels clashed with the anti-government protesters. The challenge for Egypt's powerbrokers is to increase popular participation in the life of the nation. it is the military -. that "the militaries will remain the ultimate powerbrokers" in the Middle East. A post-Mubarak Egypt is inevitable. The 82-year-old leader is the sticking point. are unpredictable -. as commentator Daniel Pipes wrote in this newspaper on Wednesday. The military will be a critical partner in the transition government and checking back extremist rise.theaustralian. The Australian – 2/4 (“High stakes in the square”. even when successful. While Egypt is still in flux. . 2011. but ensure that in the process extremist Islam does not secure a foothold. appear to be looking for an interim government that would minimise Mr Mubarak's role and give everyone a chance to regroup. if not the protesters -. argued on ABC TV Lateline on Wednesday night that Egyptians will not accept a process overseen by Mr Mubarak because they "simply do not trust him to ensure there will be a free and fair election".witness the deposition of the shah in 1979 that ushered in the Islamic republic in Iran.au/news/opinion/high-stakes-in-the-square/story-e6frg71x1225999765488) CJC The immediate question is how to move forward.com Thursday File Transition K2 Check Muslim Brotherhood Timing is everything. In the short term. Those impatient for change should remember that revolutions. http://www.which continues to position itself on the side of the people. But with the clashes continuing overnight.com.witness the failures of the 2009 Green Movement in Iran and the Cedar Revolution in Lebanon in 2005. The Americans. The respected Middle East commentator and former US ambassador to Israel.that will be most crucial in determining what happens next.
com/articles/2011/02/13/beware_the_muslim_brotherhood_108878. that it grew to prominence because of its alliance with Adolf Hitler and that -. they fail to mention that its goals are similar to al-Qaida's.realclearpolitics." The Muslim brothers are bad guys. Confusion about the Muslim Brotherhood is not limited to journalists.ht ml) CJC When journalists tout the brotherhood's "moderation" because it has publicly eschewed violence. once described the Ayatollah Khomeini as "some kind of saint. “Beware the Muslim Brotherhood”." "This is one of the most reckless and irresponsible statements ever made publicly by an American official at a critical and delicate moment. In testimony to the House Intelligence Committee Thursday.N." said John Podhoretz of Commentary magazine. James Clapper. 2011. was a deputy assistant secretary of the Air Force in the Reagan administration.which have been dominated by young people who seem genuinely interested in freedom and democracy -. Kelly – 2/13 (Jack Kelly. the Director of National Intelligence. ***Foreign Aid*** .as the Obama administration was. described the brotherhood as "largely secular.it is the father of all current terror groups in the Middle East. February 13.com Thursday File A2: Muslim Brotherhood Not Threat Claims of Muslim Brotherhood moderation have no warrants. Obama administration cluelessness about the brotherhood is dangerously reminiscent of Carter administration policy toward Iran in 1979. President Jimmy Carter's U.according to Kuwait's education minister -.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 104/148 Cross-X. ambassador. http://www. They are based on ignorance of reality. But they seem to have been as surprised by the protests -. Andrew Young. a former Marine and Green Beret.
if it becomes necessary. "President Mubarak's decision to stand down from future leadership of the government is welcome." Leahy. Some . Patrick Leahy (D. withholding aid to the government.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 105/148 Cross-X. including peace with Israel.html) CJC Congress could cut back the aid if Egypt moves in a direction contrary to U. Staff. said.com Thursday File Congress Cut Aid Congress would cut aid if it felt Egyptian Military was going the wrong direction. the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee." said Senator Patrick Leahy. aid to Egypt could be "at risk" if Cairo's military thwarts a transition to democratic rule.).com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-obamaidUSTRE7109F720110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC U.” said Arizona Senator John McCain.com/article/BT-CO-20110211-713327. FEBRUARY 11. “I urge the Egyptian military to faithfully support and secure the coming process of political change in Egypt. lawmakers also reacted with skepticism to Mubarak's announcement. http://www. “AT A GLANCE: Egypt's Mubarak Steps Down. Feb 1.wsj. “Obama says change in Egypt "must begin now"”. but his continued role in Egypt's transition is unrealistic. “The Egyptian people are demanding a meaningful and irreversible transition to democracy. policy.S. 2011.S. The U..html) CJC Sen.” Congress will cut aid if military fails to ensure transition. Military Takes Over”. senator who oversees foreign aid said Mubarak had no credibility to oversee Egypt's transition. who chairs the Senate appropriations subcommittee that approves U. 2011. "We (the United States) should do what we can to support a transition to democracy including. foreign aid. Feb 13.S. Wall Street Journal – 2/11 (Staff. http://online. “Public Praise. who heads the committee responsible for yearly spending on diplomacy and international aid.S. a Democrat. http://www. Later Friday.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military. Failure for Obama to get results means that Congress will take action and cut off aid to Egypt.S. Vt.reuters. warned annual U. Reuters – 2/1 (Caren Bohan and Andrew Quinn. reporter for Bloomberg News.bloomberg. and he renewed a threat to withhold aid from Egypt if it necessary to push for democracy there. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. 2011. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”.
com Thursday File Aid: Peaceful Transition K2 Prevent Cut US won’t cut aid now. when lawmakers will get an opportunity to make changes. aid to Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's government. congressional aides and analysts said on Wednesday. For now.5 billion a year. Much depends on events between now and then.S.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC U. Feb 2. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell. That could lead to a battle over withholding aid to Egypt later this month. Staff. lawmakers are unlikely to slash American aid to Egypt quickly.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 106/148 Cross-X.reuters. http://www. 2011. but if the issue is not resolved they are willing to gut it.S. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”. WASHINGTON (Reuters) - . but they are watching to see where unrest there leads. which has been running at $1. Views of the Egyptian turmoil vary on Capitol Hill. the Republican-run House of Representatives seems more cautious than the Democratic-run Senate about cutting U.
com Thursday File Aid K2 Leverage Aid to Egypt gives the US direct influence over the military. educational and economic ties between the two countries built over many years. and for good reason . That is why they did not fight protestors. siding with the police would be tantamount to abandoning the U. which is a much respected and highly influential institution. 2011. The army. The military connection is the only way that US-Egypt relations will remain and aid is the lynch-pin. The military was the key: most of the more then $1 billion in annual aid.com/wpdyn/content/article/2011/01/31/AR2011013104517. LA Times – 2/3 (Staff.com/news/opinion/editorials/la-ed-egypt-20110203.S. “Egypt after Mubarak”. Ambinder – 2/1 (Marc Ambinder is the White House Correspondent for National Journal Group. “Misconceptions about the Egyptian crisis”." Both in public and in every other communications channel.html) CJC The most misguided assertion in Washington holds that the United States lacks the capacity to influence the outcome of the Egyptian crisis. support for a "transition" to "real democracy. Washington Post – 1/31 (Editorial Staff. and it mostly reflected outrage over the slowness of the United States to dissociate itself from Mubarak. press secretary Robert Gibbs seemed to imply that further U. January 31. aid to Egypt would be contingent upon the country’s reactions to the protests. a legacy of the SadatBegin peace accord. Aid is critical to the US continuing to have relations. US has the necessary influence to shape the outcome in Egypt because of its Aid package. its membership ranks were fewer than polls showed. The strong secular undercurrent in most major Egyptian cities kept the Brotherhood in check as much as the heavy-handed security forces did. February 1. During his mid-day press briefing Friday.story) CJC A policy of the Mubarak regime that is likely — but not guaranteed — to survive the transition is Egypt's intimate relationship with the United States. Anti-Americanism has been a minor theme in the protests.S. (and the military aid that accompanies it).5 billion in annual aid to Egypt. http://www. and there are strong cultural.0. and on Sunday Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton finally announced U. http://www. In fact.nationaljournal. for the military. including well more than $1 billion for the Egyptian military.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 107/148 Cross-X. peppering his foreign policy team with questions about the relationship between Egyptian police and the military.washingtonpost. the administration should be making explicit the connection between future funding for the Egyptian military and that democratic transition. values the relationship with the U.the United States supplies $1. Publicly insinuating that future money would be conditioned on how Egyptian leaders handled the protesters demand was less of a direct threat than simply the application of direct leverage: Mubarak would have to tread lightly when ordering his military to backstop his police. . which had reached gale-force size. The White House has rightly hinted that that aid is now at stake. 2011. http://www. Obama’s advisers believed that the informal checks and balances that had kept Egypt firmly in America’s corner would continue with or without Mubarak. Obama turned his intelligence briefing into a seminar about Egypt.latimes. both sides in Egypt have been aggressively appealing for support from the Obama administration.S.com/whitehouse/a-white-house-policy-on-egypt-evolves-20110201) CJC The Brotherhood had done a poor job of recruiting young Egyptians. February 3. flows directly to them. “A White House Policy on Egypt Evolves”. On Friday morning.S. 2011.6393912.
reuters. The unrest in Egypt and other Middle Eastern countries could put the brakes on billions of dollars of arms sales to the entire region. Feb 2. 2011. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”. aid to Egypt is military and has gone for things like M1A1 Abrams battle tanks and F-16 fighter aircraft.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 108/148 Cross-X. analysts say. Staff. http://www.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Most U.S.com Thursday File Aid K2 Arms Sales Cutting aid to Egypt puts the brakes on billions of dollars in regional arms sales. . Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell.
Staff. Leahy suggested on Wednesday that Washington should think about economic aid for a new government in Cairo. if it becomes necessary. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell. State Department spokesman P. 2011. and our values. Staff. February 2.J." he said. Feb 2. http://www. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”. "There is money in the pipeline. Chris Strohm covers homeland security and intelligence for National Journal Group. “The welcome restraint and professionalism shown by the Egyptian Army so far is a testament to the long relationship between our two countries.com/member/daily/post-mubarak-questions-of-aid-get-complicated-20110201) CJC In his own statement. we'll make adjustments as we need to. http://www. which he says has "no credibility" to oversee the transition to democracy." he said.” “But we should do what we can to support a transition to democracy including. referring to the Mubarak government. . "There are stipulations in terms of the behavior of recipients of our assistance.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Democratic Senator Patrick Leahy chairs the Senate subcommittee in charge of foreign aid and has taken a harder line on continuing aid to the Mubarak government. http://www. Questions of Aid Get Complicated”.reuters. if aid is used in a way that is contrary to our laws.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Leahy added the Obama administration could stop spending money already appropriated by Congress for this year. "But it's certainly not going to be spent on a government that must leave and is dragging its feet on leaving.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 109/148 Cross-X.com Thursday File Aid Cut Quickly Obama can cut off aid in the pipeline immediately if there is not a peaceful resolution. 2011.nationaljournal.reuters." he added. withholding aid to the government. Feb 2." "Those would be very appropriate areas to spend American aid. And obviously. the administration can stop that money at any time. Leahy said. 2011. “Post-Mubarak." Leahy told Reuters Insider Television. saying he hoped for a transition to a government that would address joblessness and hunger and "the suffering of the people. Senate is willing to gut aid quickly.” he said. Crowley said last week the United States would continue to monitor how Egypt's military responds to the crisis -suggesting that a major army intervention to put down protests might trigger a change. Congress will cut aid to speed up the transition. our policies. House and Strohm – 2/2 (Billy House is a Congress writer for National Journal.
“Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”. Representative Kay Granger. and might take a different approach. I am continuing to monitor the events on the ground very closely. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell. Feb 2.com Thursday File Egypt – A2: No Aid Cut – Budget Aid can be cut in the coming budget. "It is critical that we are deliberate about the actions we take. The Democratic-run Senate will act on the funding bill after the House. The chambers would then have to work out their differences. Egypt has been a moderate influence in the Middle East and has a peace agreement with Israel. 2011. http://www.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 110/148 Cross-X." Granger said. urged caution this week in deciding what the U. . response to events in Egypt will be. Staff.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC The House Republican who chairs the committee on foreign aid. Senate will wait to act until after house which means they can reconcile the difference.S.reuters.
would be reviewed as events unfold but U. http://www. officials have indicated it would not be quickly cut off." State's Crowley said on Monday.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-idUSTRE71175920110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC The White House said last week U. Our relationship has been a stabilizing one. "Our assistance to Egypt is longstanding. struggles for policy”.S.S.reuters. which runs about $1. ***Iran*** .3 billion per year. It is based on the work that we've done together.com Thursday File Egypt – Aid On Table US is putting the question of Aid to Egypt on the table. “U. military aid to Egypt.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 111/148 Cross-X. urges restraint in Egypt.S. Reuters – 2/2 (Arshad Mohammed and Andrew Quinn. Feb 2. 2011.
who served as an Iranian affairs adviser in the Bush-era State Department.” said Suzanne Maloney. Following the popular uprising in Egypt that toppled the 30-year authoritarian regime of President Hosni Mubarak. make the situation in Iran more unstable. “W. It ensures stable transitions between regimes.S. more dangerous.” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told reporters Monday. takes Egypt wisdom to Iran”. which drew flak for sending mixed messages during the crisis. a national security policy chairman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The administration’s response to protests in Tehran on Monday largely mirrored its public statements three weeks ago after demonstrators filled the streets of Cairo. The Obama administration also learned from the Egyptian revolution. adversary and the subject of United Nations sanctions.politico. .html) CJC A second test of President Barack Obama’s Middle East foreign policy is brewing in the streets of Tehran this week. http://www. “We wish the opposition and the brave people in the streets across cities in Iran the same opportunity that they saw the Egyptians seize. “They’re watching for this. which the White House openly admitted came as a surprise. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a U. day in and day out.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 112/148 Cross-X. 2/15/11.” By contrast. Unlike Mubarak.” Maloney said. and what set the Egyptian government so off-kilter. “There’s no real way to predict which of the pressures for change [in the Mideast] are going to become serious and reach a crisis point. which lessens the extent to which the State Department and the White House have to conduct diplomatic back flips in their public statements. has been careful to speak with a unified voice — including efforts to spread democracy to Iran. “Basic problem that you face here is that you have to deal with this country by country. some of the same activists who led Iran’s failed Green Revolution in 2009 are taking to the streets again — and facing the same.” At the same time. violent repression. The White House and the State Department. But the absence of a diplomatic relationship. “What I think was so powerful. potentially. unrest in Iran has festered for more than a year — which analysts believe has prepared the Ahmadinejad regime to respond swiftly to threats of opposition. the Iranian regime has learned from last year’s protests and the outcome in Egypt — lessons that could prompt the government to launch a more systematic and unbridled crackdown on dissent. Maloney said. unpredictable and. “Let me very clearly and directly support the aspirations of the people who are in the streets in Iran today. coupled with near-complete suppression of the media.H. the diplomatic scenarios in Iran are dramatically different. “Iran has been in a period of turmoil now for a full 18 months. Unlike Egypt’s scenario.com/news/stories/0211/49513. The uprising in Iran can be successful with continued effective US diplomacy.” said Anthony Cordesman. was simply that this came out of nowhere.” Administration officials are monitoring events in Iran closely and attempting to gauge whether the latest street demonstrations will gain momentum. Phillip – 2/15 (Abby Phillip is a staff writer.com Thursday File Diplomacy = Iran Transition Continued focus for our diplomacy efforts is critical in the Middle East. US must stay focused on a country by country basis. near-certain threat of government-backed.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 113/148 Cross-X.com Thursday File ***** Affirmative Answers***** .
“Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood plans political party”.bloomberg.within 10 days . • 3. Diplomatic capital doesn’t trade off – the state department can collaborate and hire more people to avoid any tradeoff.com Thursday File ***2AC F/L*** 1. a legal scholar told The Associated Press. and • program adequate time for public diplomacy training into State’s assignment process. “The fact that we have a good relationship means that they’re going to listen to you. CAIRO -which it ensured through widespread election rigging. • consider ways to collaborate with the private sector to employ best practices for measuring efforts to inform and influence target audiences.com/2011/02/14/1981307/egypts-us-envoy-says-mubarakmay.S.S. along with other judges and legal experts. the fundamentalist group that was the most bitter rival of Mubarak's regime. 2.” said Graeme Bannerman. The military is now also urging an end to labor strikes that spread wildly across the country Sunday and Monday. to be thrown out completely and rewritten to ensure no one can once again establish autocratic rule. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. 2011. 14. now suspended by the military. not that they’re going to follow you. 4 September 2003. GAO 2003 (Government Accountability Office. also includes a Christian supreme court judge. The panel's convening indicated the military was trying to push ahead quickly with a transition after Mubarak resigned Friday in the face of 18 days of unprecedented popular protests that massed hundreds of thousands. The military's choices for the panel's makeup were a sign of the new political legitimacy of the Muslim Brotherhood. http://www. GAO-03-951. Public Diplomacy: State Department Expands Efforts but Faces Significant Challenges: GAO-03-951. • strengthen efforts to train Foreign Service officers in foreign languages. http://www. even after more than 30 years and billions of dollars of U.thesunnews.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military. EBSCO) To improve the planning. which met with Defense Minister Hussein Tantawi on Tuesday.S. including expanded use of opinion research and better designate more administrative positions to overseas public affairs sections to reduce the administrative burden.S. public diplomacy efforts. Non-Unique: Muslim Brotherhood has already been included in the current negotiations and elections are coming fast. execution.”. coordination.Associated Press reporters. they’ll make the decision based on what is best in the Egyptians’ national interest. The panel is to draw up changes at a breakneck pace . Two members on the panel said the next elected government could further change the document if it choses. 2011. a former U. assistance as part of a two-way bargain. US does not have influence over Egyptian military. The panel is headed by Tareq el-Bishri. lobbyist for Egypt who’s now a scholar for the Middle East Institute in Washington. unleashed by the turmoil. The eight-member committee. and assessment of U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 114/148 Cross-X. “In the end. use of existing research. because of its relative professionalism and its view of U. The initial changes may not be enough for many in Egypt calling for the current constitution. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. one of its members Mohammed Hassanein Abdel-Al.S.html#storylink=mirelated) CJC Egypt's long banned Muslim Brotherhood said Tuesday it intends to form a political party once democracy is established. assistance. Feb 13. as the country's new military rulers launched a panel of experts to amend the country's constitution enough to allow democratic elections later this year. a widely respected former judge and scholar who was once a secular leftist but later became one of the most foremost thinkers of what Egyptians refer to as the "moderate Islamic" political trend and is seen as a bridge between the movements. we recommend that the Secretary of State • develop and widely disseminate throughout the department a strategy that considers the techniques of private sector public relations firms in integrating all of State’s public diplomacy efforts and directing them toward achieving common and measurable objectives.to end the monopoly that ousted President Hosni Mubarak's ruling party once held. Sun News – 2/14 (LEE KEATH and HAMZA HENDAWI . Among the panel's members is Sobhi Saleh. Feb. “Public Praise.” The Egyptian military may also have acquired some of its professional standards and .html) CJC The Egyptian military can afford to exercise its independence from foreign interference. a former lawmaker from the Brotherhood seen as part of its reformist wing. reporter for Bloomberg News. officials and analysts say. “U.
administration is handicapping itself with a dysfunctional bureaucratic setup that makes it harder to focus and find its footing. More than 500 a year come to the U. In the end. the early 1970s. But there were also brilliant achievements: the Marshall Plan. disasters and plenty of dysfunction during these years. And America is unlikely to prevail in any meaningful sense of the word where corrupt. and much of the third and fourth worlds believe. NATO. and India) can't be of much help. "there were wonderful giants of old. There were. Pakistan. Feb. It's not from the big that the president's problems come.S. No more. conventional diplomacy has either not been tried or not been very successful. it's from the small. it seems. Dreazen – 2/1 ( Yochi Dreazen is a senior correspondent for National Journal Group covering military affairs and national security.Kashmir. The world's gotten complicated. and maybe one part diplomacy. But frankly. political. 4. In the face of terrorism. America is a good deal weaker. military educational institutions such as the service war colleges and the National Defense University. For most of the last 16 years. and the first Gulf War. public-policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. And in one of the cruelest ironies of all. these are the easy ones. and Somalia. What's more. and economic power toward impressive ends.foreignpolicy. Diplomatic Capital is irrelevant in a post Mubarak world. Effective American diplomacy may well be going the way of the dodo. 2011. including the Vietnam War and out-of-control CIA operations.the United States is hampered by conflicts driven by deep ethnic and religious hostility and by internal politics in which its own allies (Israel.S.America has been in a diplomatic dry patch. “The End of Diplomacy?”. Pakistan. doggedly pursuing Middle East peace. there was a time when American diplomacy did big and important things. Even in areas where diplomacy might seem to work on paper -. Foreign Policy. Miller. nuclear proliferation. the answers to the many questions set off by Mubarak’s departure will have to come from the Egyptians themselves. détente with the Russians. Aaron David. though it has had its share of problems with China.com Thursday File ethics while studying at U. US diplomacy is ineffective – countries will say no and conflicts are escalating now. Winston Churchill wrote that in England. “Mubarak's Departure Raises Tough Questions for U. . president who has gone further to engage Iran than any of his predecessors is watching any hope for diplomacy being ground up by a regime under siege in Tehran. 1. extractive regimes are unable to control their own territory and cut deals with anti-American elements and place their security and political concerns first. 19881991) when the United States marshaled its military. right. Still. and nasty regional conflicts. or course.nationaljournal. 5. America never ran the world (an illusion the left. http://www.S.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 115/148 Cross-X. you really do have to wonder whether America's best diplomacy and foreign policy are behind it. the problems are four parts military.com/mubarak-s-departure-raises-toughquestions-for-u-s-israel-20110201) CJC Policymakers in Washington and Jerusalem have assumed for days that Mubarak would soon step down. The US does not have influence on the events in Egypt.. Arab-Israeli peacemaking -. In garden spots like Iraq. the W. a competent American role in the acceleration and management of the end of the Cold War. looking back over the last 60 years. Yemen.S. and the U. for advanced training. Israel”. wars of choice. personnel. Lamenting the absence of great men years before his own shining moment. who help them adapt to the American weapons and equipment they receive." There's always a danger in idealizing what once was or seemed to be in order to make a point about the present. and the sad fact is there may be little Barack Obama can do about it.S. however -. The Obama administration wants to do this kind of stuff. 2-3-2010 [2/3/2010. achieving dramatic breakthroughs with spectacular secret diplomacy seems a world away. The image of the shuttling secretary of state preempting crises or exploiting them to broker agreements. But the Obama administration and its allies have only limited influence on the future course of events on the ground in Egypt. five parts nationbuilding. opening to China. http://www. and have already begun thinking through what may come next. Afghanistan. And it has done pretty well in managing the big relationships with Russia and Europe.S.com/articles/2010/02/03/the_end_of_diplomacy?page=full] MGM Back in the day.under Bill Clinton and George Bush -. in addition to the contacts they have in Egypt with U. effective Arab-Israeli diplomacy. but there were moments (1945-1950. once upon a time. the U.
" arguably. It is trying to play the forces loosed on Cairo streets and elsewhere as a bull. multi-party elections. but. the other the Muslim Brotherhood. That the existing Egyptian constitution is a defunct. their protection rackets. And that's very bad for a great power. America's currently fighting two wars where the standard for victory is not whether it can win but when it can leave." which the younger generation of Islamists have mastered. one vote. because in Egypt. Yemen. In the case of Egypt.com 116/148 Thursday File power of the small is being matched by the weakening of the big. while belabouring three topics: Zionism. yes. for instance. Warren – 2/17 (David Warren. The latter prefers to raise the banner of Jihad. operating through the mosques. in Iraq -. Instead. or create genuine opportunities for success abroad. and made limitations upon democracy fairly plain. Jordan. the world has gotten used to saying no to America without cost or consequence. which has much of the world wondering about what kind of great power the United States really is. one time. And there. The Brotherhood and Military will prevent it either way. Hezbollah. or push the Pakistanis to hit the Taliban and al Qaeda in a sustained way. and Jews. Algeria. more money for everyone! You cannot write a constitution in 10 days. a new constitution. The Internet. make North Korea play ball. 6. Staff. which is what secretaries of state are supposed to do. and the actual "supreme guide" of the Muslim Brotherhood (with the infrastructure of the movement entirely behind him). and elsewhere. or Iran for that matter. but it won't last. But if you don't have the right structure. consciously resisting "one man. it makes success all that much harder. age 29.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. And the image that comes to mind isn't a terribly kind one: America as a kind of modern-day Gulliver tied up by tiny tribes abroad and hobbled by its inability to organize its own house at home. get the Arabs and the Israelis to cooperate. The former speaks sensitively but vacuously about pluralism in religion and politics.com/articles/2011/02/17/our_incoherent_response_to_middle_east_ch aos_108923. with the rhetorically bludgeoning Mohamed Badi -. Israel. the Obama administration has created an empire of envoys with power concentrated in the White House but without real purpose or strategy. 2011.html) CJC You cannot argue with a mob -.dictated by a dictator -. have rewritten many of the rules. we are asked to compare. Most old-world constitutions were written in blood (Canada's was unusual). It wasn't a Democracy is itself the loudest false promise being casually offered in the Middle East. The demonstrations were certainly organized through them. It's still early. They became possible because social media gave people the sense of strength in numbers -. revised daily to keep up with the demands. nor contribute to the possibilities for mature and intelligent . It will not be available within days or weeks. The mob is now electronically summoned and enhanced. better marshal American power. you can. only two "parties" are seriously organized. about the aspirations of women. But the next several years are more likely to be tough ones for American diplomacy. humourless joke -. And yet there was one thing to be said for it. It corresponded approximately to the reality. or Islamist equivalents (Hamas. and neither is parliamentary by disposition. Forget the economic meltdown.the choice is between feigned obedience and defiance -. http://www. in combination with partisan and sensationalized mass media. or rather.realclearpolitics... and then very tenuously. yes. and maybe the Obama administration will get lucky. this does not make it any easier to argue with. party elections. with a cape of promises. And al Jazeera leaped in quickly to spread the word and excitement from there. Perhaps the Iranian regime will collapse or the Arabs and Israelis will do something good by themselves. A new bureaucratic flowchart won't replace skill and luck. Finally. One would be the civilian military order behind each existing autocracy. bring Tehran to heel. the social-media-savvy Moaz Abdel Karim. in Egypt.well before they actually had the numbers on the street. Whether it's an inability to get tough sanctions from the international community against Iran. February 17.after nearly a decade of bloodshed. It exists only tissue of false promises. There will not be a transition to democracy in Egypt.and the Egyptian army chose to dispense with Hosni Mubarak last week. These latter have already created their parallel welfare and regulatory agencies. And the United States has departed from the one model that has proven successful: the strong foreign-policy president empowering the strong secretary of state who rides herd over subcabinet-level envoys in real time and in close coordination with the president on strategy.may be conceded. The more sophisticated commentators in the West have been drawing contrasts between the older and younger manifestations of Islamism. “Democracy and the Mob”. the alternative is to write them in water. You don't have to be a declinist (I'm not) to see how far the image of American power has fallen. to return to where I started." Even reduced to "free and fair multi- democracy remains unavailable for the foreseeable future. there's the issue of how the country organizes itself. yes. The nation's top diplomat (the secretary of state) seems to be everywhere and nowhere in terms of owning issues and finding a way to take on some of the nastiest challenges.age 66. and so on). Reforms. . even a kind of judicial and legislative apparatus. Whom should we trust? We have read much about those twittering "social media. only because Bush and company dwelt upon the "civil society" aspects. along with everyone else. and now.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. ***Uniqueness Ans.*** . From anarchy to totalitarianism is one Persian step.com 117/148 Thursday File deliberation over the path ahead. It instead creates a new and much broader field for anarchy.
February 2. but he was also key to U.S. CNN Staff. Turkey. has less leverage in the region than ever before.us.S. “The Sweep: The risk of democracy in the Middle East”. ***Link Level*** . Lebanon is in the throes of a dangerous game of brinksmanship that threatens to send the country back into civil war after Hezbollah. and its allies that it will remain defiant on its nuclear program in the face of tough sanctions.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS %3A+Politics%29) CJC the U. supported by Syria and Iran.cnn.-backed government of Prime Minister Saad Hariri and installed billionaire businessman Najib Mikati as its choice for the job. Iran showed the U.S.egypt/index.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 118/148 Cross-X. We don’t have the influence to do anything in the region. 2011.com/2011/POLITICS/02/02/sweep.S. brought down the U. a strongman president has been ejected. Today. In Yemen. CNN – 2/2 (Elise Labott and Josh Levs. http://www. anti-terror efforts in the country that harbors an active and threatening subset of al Qaeda.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – N/U: Dip Cap Low US diplomatic capital is at an all-time low. At talks last month in Istanbul.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 119/148
Cross-X.com Thursday File
Iraq Aff – Link Turn
Withdrawing from Iraq saves diplomatic capital – shifts focus elsewhere while Iraq takes the lead. Scowcroft, 5-13-2010 [Brett, former US National Security Advisor, 2010 GLOBAL SECURITY FORUM, http://csis.org/files/attachments/100513_middleeast_panel_transcript.pdf]
Q: Chet Crocker, Georgetown University. A couple of 20,000-foot questions for a retired Air Force general and a screenplay writer. (Laughter.) Brent, you mentioned the phrase, “a nurturing presence,” and I wonder what kind of post-Iraq war, postAfghan war military footprint you see in that part of the world, and what role for our diplomacy? Are we going to be the lead actor on all the issues that we’ve been touching on – Israel-Palestine, India-Pakistan, and of course, Gulf security architecture, which David mentioned? So are we going to be the lead diplomatic presence and the lead
military presence in this region? And should this region continue to occupy 80 percent of our political and diplomatic capital around the world? Thank you. LT. GEN. SCOWCROFT: Chet, I think you’re the best one to answer that question. I would hope that we would back down a little bit from leadership in the region to, if you will, nurturing and cooperation and encouragement for the region to get itself together and to move in unison. It’s fundamentally a rich region. Iraq, for example, has huge natural resources. The right kind of encouragement could do a lot to turn Iraqi-Iranian relationship to one, at least, of toleration. I think Jordan is another problem, which is, in part, a regional problem. Aside from the issues of the East Bank, and so on, there are close to a million Iraqi refugees in Jordan. This is a terrible burden for a state without the natural resources that some of the others have. I think we can use our ability to organize and guide in a way which encourages the best instincts of the region without saying, we’ve dealt with these military problems; now we’re going to set the region
straight, because I don’t think we’re able to do that.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 120/148
Cross-X.com Thursday File
Afghanistan Aff – Link Turn
Afghanistan presence devastates dip cap. South China Morning Post, 2009 [Greg Torode, 12-3, "Will Obama's Afghan strategy play into China's hands?", Lexis] Obama's Afghan strategy - 100,000 troops and a withdrawal beginning in July 2011 - will demand costly intangibles and some are wondering whether it is here, in East Asia, that Washington will end up paying that bill. Quagmire in Afghanistan could further play into the hands of an emerging China that is fast
US President Barack challenging the strategic assumptions that have governed East Asia for decades. Even if the dramatic escalation of 30,000 extra troops goes smoothly, the military, political and diplomatic capital expended will be considerable. And it is
being spent by a fresh, young hopeful, but an exhausted warrior trying to restore his reserves of blood and treasure after two conflicts, and the worst economic crisis in a generation. Will Afghanistan divert Washington's attention from the more subtle but vital task of dealing with the rise of China and balancing ties across East Asia, where, for decades, it has been the primary military power? Will it divert the energies of US institutions just as they are supposed to be engaging China on an ever-broadening range of issues, from the
not environment and water management to freedom of navigation? Then there are the worst case scenarios. Would Afghanistan commitments mean the US could not respond fully to a military crisis in the region, say a conflict over Taiwan or the Korean peninsula? Afghanistan, after all, is now Obama's war. These are the questions being asked across
the region just weeks after Obama staged his first visit to set the tone for what he hopes will be eight years of complex engagement - deepening ties with China while boosting existing alliances and reaching
to out to new friends. No one is pretending China would create that crisis but some believe Beijing would quietly seek to exploit any perceived vacuum. Dr Ian Storey, a scholar at Singapore's Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, said a sense that the US risked bogging itself down in Afghanistan could embolden Beijing. "On a strategic level, it might reinforce China's perceptions that the US is a declining power," he said. "And I think that, in turn, could make Beijing more assertive in the region. We might see China being more confident about pushing the theme of a new multipolar world like they tried in the 1990s, a world where the US is more of a 'normal' power." Already, US military officials describe more frequent encounters with Chinese warships across the region, a presence expected to grow. On the diplomatic front, US diplomats and their regional allies find their Beijing counterparts increasingly assertive. While Afghanistan might force Washington to draw away from the Pacific theatre - its biggest presence - its important naval engagement with the region was unlikely to diminish, Storey said. "We can see the US is exhausted," one veteran Japanese envoy said privately. "Taking on fresh burdens in Afghanistan leaves us wondering about the response in a crisis. With the best will, it would be a great challenge ... they are already stretched." Professor Shi Yinghong, director of the Centre for American Studies at Renmin University, said China would now pay closer attention to developments in Afghanistan. Although China would avoid publicly commenting on Obama's Afghan decision, Shi said Beijing would be concerned no matter whether America won or lost the war. "It will be a very distant concern. Beijing will be more immediately concerned if the US loses the war, in this case, its ally Pakistan will be affected, and security in the region will be undermined," he said. "If the war is won, then Beijing will be uncomfortable to have so many US soldiers near its border." In practical terms, Beijing has appeared content to stand on the sidelines through the war to date. Repeated US requests to exploit bases on the Chinese side of the border for refuelling missions have been refused. More recently, US officials have requested an opening of the small but strategic Sino-Afghan border to allow troops and supplies to be ferried down the mountainous Wakhan Corridor. The issue was raised during Obama's recent mission to Beijing but has yet to be approved. No offers of hard military support is expected any time soon. Most analysts believe China is unlikely to want to be involved in a war led by US-dominated Nato forces rather than the UN. But some in the region believe Obama will not be easily diverted. Professor Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University, said Obama had made considerable gains in Southeast Asia compared with his predecessor. He has entrenched ties with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and has taken the risk of engaging Myanmar's junta. "Despite all the challenges he will face in Afghanistan, I think the track in this part of the world is set ... his administration has done more in a year than Bush did in eight years," he said. "We fully expect that will continue."
Investment in Afghan war is wasting Obama’s diplomatic capital – aff frees it up. Carpenter, 6-27-2010 [Dan, Writer and columnist for the IndyStar, “No credit for taking charge,” http://www.indystar.com/article/20100627/OPINION05/6270333/1039/OPINION05/No-credit-fortaking-charge]
Like Lincoln, President Barack
has found it necessary to change generals in the middle of a war. Unlike Lincoln, this
president seems unlikely to defeat the South. With Afghanistan, his chances of victory are roughly equal to Lincoln's, assuming that victory means a secure, friendly populace under the firm control of a government established under the auspices of the U.S. military. Even a gunboat diplomacy buff like George Will sees no hope or necessity for the Afghanistan expedition. Liberals are left pretty much in a quagmire, suffering through another political oil
splash on their man without reason to believe his handling of this affront has any bearing on the alleged business at hand. "Success" in Afghanistan is as remote to the vast majority of
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X.com 121/148 Thursday File Americans (those without loved ones there) as Afghanistan itself. To the extent they discuss the
commander in chief as they stand in line for their iPhones, they talk in terms of his domestic war, the bone-deep conflict between a Northern urbanite and a devout resistance dominated by the South and Southwest. Recognizing the potency of right-wing sentiment, and the inconstancy of the so-called Blue Dog Democrats, Obama long ago adopted a strategy of cooptation. Assure the other side you share their narrowly defined basic values of patriotism and morality and middle-class preeminence, and hope they'll drop their guard against your more imaginative agenda. Because nobody dares run for president as an
antiwar candidate, Obama chose to label Iraq as the wrong war, leaving Afghanistan as the right war and obligating himself to prosecute that waste of lives, money and diplomatic capital. He played into the mass fantasy that global upheaval can be reduced to the mischief of a few terrorist bands. He threw in the bonus of a sort-of deadline for bringing the troops home. None of it has pleased North or South on this side of the proverbial water's edge. It
couldn't even spare him a bizarre cross-cultural kneecapping by his top general in, of all places, Rolling Stone magazine. Hardly a match for Lincoln's dark nights of the soul, I guess; but our much-maligned 16th president surely died with confidence that historians would vindicate him. He waged a terrible war that ended insurrection, ended slavery -- and ended. No American
war has taken longer to reach its end than the current one that Barack Obama purported to welcome. Its end is not in sight, and the absence of evil that it would bring about is something our visionary leader is unable to picture for us. Lincoln's eloquence about bereaved military families who "have
laid so costly a sacrifice upon the altar of freedom" can hardly be appropriated for a disjointed and deadly security operation for a corrupt and ineffectual foreign regime. The battle, then, is to save face on the home front. To show who is in command. It has to be an ill-fitting role for a man who sought to dial down his predecessor's emphasis on the military and offer an open hand to the non-Western world. Playing it is the price he has had to pay to be president. He can go ahead and break a leg, as they say in show business; but he'll hear little applause from South, North, or, when it comes to his chosen war, posterity.
LT. and what role for our diplomacy? Are we going to be the lead actor on all the issues that we’ve been touching on – Israel-Palestine. Georgetown University. I would hope that we would back down a little bit from leadership in the region to. for example. postAfghan war military footprint you see in that part of the world.pdf] Q: Chet Crocker.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 122/148 Cross-X. a regional problem. I think we can use our ability to organize and guide in a way which encourages the best instincts of the region without saying. and of course. 2010 GLOBAL SECURITY FORUM. I think Jordan is another problem. there are close to a million Iraqi refugees in Jordan. now we’re going to set the region straight. you mentioned the phrase. if you will. we’ve dealt with these military problems.com Thursday File Iraq Aff – Link Turn Withdrawing from Iraq saves diplomatic capital – shifts focus elsewhere while Iraq takes the lead. It’s fundamentally a rich region. The right kind of encouragement could do a lot to turn Iraqi-Iranian relationship to one. A couple of 20. in part. “a nurturing presence. of toleration. India-Pakistan.) Brent. because I don’t think we’re able to do that. 5-13-2010 [Brett. http://csis. at least. has huge natural resources. . Scowcroft. former US National Security Advisor. I think you’re the best one to answer that question. nurturing and cooperation and encouragement for the region to get itself together and to move in unison.000-foot questions for a retired Air Force general and a screenplay writer. SCOWCROFT: Chet. which David mentioned? So are we going to be the lead diplomatic presence and the lead military presence in this region? And should this region continue to occupy 80 percent of our political and diplomatic capital around the world? Thank you. Gulf security architecture. which is. Aside from the issues of the East Bank.” and I wonder what kind of post-Iraq war. (Laughter. Iraq. This is a terrible burden for a state without the natural resources that some of the others have. GEN.org/files/attachments/100513_middleeast_panel_transcript. and so on.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 123/148 Cross-X. 2002 [Jaime. L. [troops] abroad to further [its] national security and foreign policy objectives[. privileges. University of San Francisco Law Review. Marines on the island and the resignation of their commander. status. 2001. JD graduate at University of San Francisco School of Law.. demanded the "withdrawal of all U. allowing us to pursue diplomatic endeavor Gher. rights. The United States has a long history of "sending .com Thursday File Japan Aff – Link Turn Withdrawing from Okinawa ends criticism of the US. 227. “Status of Forces Agreements: Tools to Further Effective Foreign Policy and Lessons To Be Learned from the United States-Japan Agreement”. scheme: the Status of Forces Agreement ("SOFA")... Fall.S. Lexis] MGM a local assembly on Okinawa. . 37 U. the more likely it is that United States diplomatic endeavors will be thwarted and its international reputation tarnished. and immunities. Rev.. which] has profound implications under United States and international law and raises .F... the site of America's largest military base in Japan.S. issues of ." n18 As the global community becomes more aware of Japanese dissatisfaction." n19 This Comment focuses on an instrument essential to America's military placement On February 16.
g. 114 Credibility in one human [*749] rights arena (e. child labor). 120 In particular.translate into success for U. http://web. out of our domestic values and policies.lexis-nexis. gender equality) often serves to enhance credibility in an unrelated human rights arena (e. all of the damage currently spanning the U. May 2010. diplomatic capital.S. 118 Areas of legal and moral contradiction. ***Internal Answers*** . create the loss of the legitimacy and credibility necessary to build soft power." and reclaiming legitimacy by addressing domestic gender-motivated violence as a human rights issue can communicate this cultural value. from one of military hard power to a moral and diplomatic leader.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 124/148 Cross-X. The Vanderbilt Journal of Transnational Law. gender legislation advances U. In this way.S." including international standards to which the United States committed. Such a change would significantly increase diplomatic capital.S.S soft power interests.com/scholastic/document?_m =235f2b6f28fe5116dc52324e38ebfe4c&_docnum=1&wchp=dGLzVlzzSkVk&_md5=bcef5cca117ffa071d3621 bd40b67ba6) Congressional activism on gender policy provides an avenue for shifting the image of the U. Lawyer and writer in the Vanderbilt Law School Journal of Transnational Law**. credibility on gender equality issues. this Note does not mean to suggest that if Congress passes legislation that addresses gender problems in America. LexisNexis. moral ethos would dissipate. “Congress’s Attempted Response to the World’s Demand for the Violence Against Women Act”. Certainly. "soft power grows out of our culture.com Thursday File Link – Link Turn – South Korea K Aff Link Turn: US focus should shift from military power and towards gender policy. 119 Readers should be cautious not to overestimate the value of U. such as those present in gender policy. image as a champion of gender equality as well as signaling that Congress takes its responsibility for fulfilling international human rights obligations seriously. Culpepper 2010 (Brenton.S.g.S. However. 115 Professor Joseph Nye describes the above phenomenon as "soft power": "Soft power is the ability to get what you want through attraction rather than coercion or payments." 116 Nye argues that "when American policies lose their legitimacy and credibility in the eyes of others. which can . Congressional legislation serves the dual purpose of restoring the U. 113 This shift increases U. foreign policy goals. attitudes of distrust tend to fester and further reduce our leverage.in much the same way a President spends political capital to achieve policy objectives on Capitol Hill .S." 117 "Problems arise for our soft power when we do not live up to our own standards.
S. http://www.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military. Feb 13. “They are just not the types to want to do that.” said Robert Springborg.bloomberg.html) CJC The standards taught “include a role for civilian influence over decision-making. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger. “I think the military has looked after its own interests as the high command sees them. reporter for Bloomberg News.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt: No Influence US does not have influence over Egyptian military. 2011. California. “Also the people of Egypt would likely not accept it.” . has had much influence over the decisions of the Egyptian military during the turmoil in Cairo and other major cities. a professor of economics at the National Defense University in Washington. The Egyptian military isn’t likely to get too involved in details of constitutional changes or get so comfortable that they would want to hang on to power. Bannerman and others said. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”.” he said. Springborg said he doesn’t think the U. a professor of political economy of the Middle East at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey.” said Paul Sullivan.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 125/148 Cross-X. “Public Praise.
Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military. Feb 13.S. As a result. “They see the aid as a partnership.html) CJC The Egyptian military sees the aid it receives every year from the U. he said. analysts said. receives. Gates and Mullen aren’t likely to press too hard. reporter for Bloomberg News.” . Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger.” Bannerman said.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 126/148 Cross-X. as recompense for its 1979 peace agreement with Israel and for basing and access that the U.bloomberg. “They’re smart enough to know that’s not how to get them to do it. “Public Praise.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt: Aid =/= Influence Aid does not influence Egyptian military. 2011. http://www. they see it as compensation for the Peace Accords with Israel.S.
Stone – 1/31 (Andrea Stone. not only to show progress on solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict but to encourage democratic reform. “The Sweep: The risk of democracy in the Middle East”.egypt/index. Neither will the choice of his successor. America has lost the ability to influence the shape of post-Mubarak Egypt and it faces growing crises in another moderate Arab state.com/article/SB10001424052748703960804576120064121963244.politicsdaily. "A lot of this is totally out of our control.realclearpolitics. “Egyptian Crisis Biggest Foreign Test Yet for Obama Administration”. http://www.html? mod=rss_Politics_And_Policy) CJC How the administration overcomes Mr.". Babbin – 2/2 (Jed Babbin served as a Deputy Undersecretary of Defense under George H.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS %3A+Politics%29) CJC Although it came into office hoping to seduce the region rather than fight it.unless the Egyptian armed forces choose to intervene may tilt Egypt into the radical Islamist sphere now dominated by Iran. . Jordan. 1/31/2011. February 2. But he did say one thing that will influence events there: that transition in Egypt "must be meaningful. the Obama administration has not delivered on the tantalizing promises it made since taking over. This loss of influence is apparently misunderstood or. Whether his regime falls now or leaves of its own accord later will not be decided in Washington. “Egypt's Future Will Be Decided by the Military”. http://online. US does not have influence over the Middle East.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 127/148 Cross-X.com/2011/01/31/egyptian-crisis-biggest-foreign-test-yet-for-obamaadministratio/) CJC U. DC or the New York Times' editorial boardroom. Change in the region comes not from his encouragement but from the disaffected taking matters into their own hands. February 2." US is reactionary. "It's important to keep in mind that the United States is not going to change the course of events in Egypt or anywhere else.S.” By that remark. and it must begin now.us. said. Staff Writers." and "In the Words of Our Enemies.com/2011/POLITICS/02/02/sweep.cnn. 2011. In his brief Tuesday evening remarks.wsj.html) CJC Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's Tuesday promise to not run for reelection does not mean his government will survive through the scheduled September contest." he said. it must be peaceful. "The United States is really a spectator to a phenomenon that has taken on a life of its own. These dashed expectations Obama has created in the region are not just disappointing.W.com/articles/2011/02/02/egypts_future_will_be_decided_by_the_milit ary. he threw our lot with the demonstrators who seek Mubarak's immediate removal and made Mubarak's time to organize any transition even more limited than they were before. President Obama did a good job of pretending that we have significant influence on the events in Egypt which will determine who rules in Mubarak's place. Mubarak and moves to an interim government is not clear. FEBRUARY 3. misunderestimated by the Obama administration and its media surrogates. which has been solidly pro-American since the advent of King Abdullah's reign. http://www. US has zero influence over the outcome in Egypt." Much of the White House response has been "reacting to the circumstances on the street and the knowledge we obtain. Wall Street Journal – 2/3 (JONATHAN WEISMAN And ADAM ENTOUS. has zero influence over what happens on the ground in Egypt.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – No Influence U. CNN – 2/2 (Elise Labott and Josh Levs. In fact. 2011. He is the author of several bestselling books including "Inside the Asylum. to borrow a malapropism from a former president. is a 'spectator' Despite its financial sway. CNN Staff. Bush. who .S. http://www. 2011." Ottaway said. Political Analyst for Politics Daily. meeting with journalists Wednesday. “White House Charts a New Plan”. they know the outcome is out of their control. White House Chief of Staff William Daley.
. whose interests don't always align with Washington's.S. This troubled region has always looked to the U.com 128/148 Thursday File they have hurt U. credibility in the region and have had diplomats and Middle East experts scratching their heads about just what Obama's vision for the region is.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. are taking the lead.S. Now. to help in times of crisis. countries like Turkey and Qatar.
In 1973 they even expelled the Soviets from Egypt. Bush.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 129/148 Cross-X. http://www. On Monday.". at least up to a point. But they will resist a radical regime.again reflecting Egypt's weak economy and consistent failure to spend enough to create and train effective forces .com/articles/2011/02/02/egypts_future_will_be_decided_by_the_milit ary. a more radical government rises in its place? Another senior American military source opined that the Egyptian military would not permit a radical Islamic regime like the Tehran Ayatollahs from taking control.they are loyal to their officers.W.realclearpolitics. But what if.from inside Egypt and emanating from Iran and Syria . That source emphasized that the Egyptian army's deep rooted culture and mentality will prevail. But given Egypt's culture and its military's low-paid status. the officers and men have some prestige in Egyptian society which they wish to maintain. That is the most likely scenario if radical Islamic influence .html) CJC As one very senior retired Israeli officer told me.*** . when Mubarak falls. We cannot expect that the Egyptian army will have become a democratic force as a result of our deep connections with it. “Egypt's Future Will Be Decided by the Military”. it's entirely possible that a new Islamist regime could purchase the military's loyalty.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – No Influence: Military US does not have influence over the military. the Egyptian army didn't become communist when it was heavily equipped (rather more than it needed) by the Soviet Union. But that does not mean it will remain on the sidelines indefinitely. ***A2: Counterterrorism*** ***Impact Ans. the Egyptian military proclaimed it would not use violence against the Cairo demonstrators. He is the author of several bestselling books including "Inside the Asylum. Though they aren't well-trained by US standards because they have little funding to train. Babbin – 2/2 (Jed Babbin served as a Deputy Undersecretary of Defense under George H. Though the enlisted men in Egyptian forces are very poorly paid . 2011." and "In the Words of Our Enemies.manage to tip the balance their way. A senior American military source who trained with Egyptian forces for years echoed those thoughts and added this: the Egyptian army's officer corps is loyal to Mubarak. February 2. They can be baought by radical forces.
in revolutionary situations. Michele Dunne. she said. Washington Post – 2/13 (Mary Beth Sheridan and Joby Warrick. another former State Department Middle East expert. now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "The idea we can't do business with countries responsive to their citizens is a false one. 2 figure in al-Qaeda. http://www. however. Turn: Egypt democracy regardless of the outcomes undercut Al-Qaeda. Many counterterrorism officials and Middle East experts are skeptical that al-Qaeda will benefit from Egypt's political upheaval. B. argue that Egypt is likely to continue much of its cooperation. Turkey could fill the intelligence void. Egypt will continue its cooperation even with Muslim Brotherhood in power.com/wpdyn/content/article/2011/02/12/AR2011021203581. the moderates are the first to go.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 130/148 Cross-X. "The developments in Egypt are actually devastating to al-Qaeda." said the former CIA official. an Egyptian who is the No. having suffered years of assassinations and other attacks by extremist Muslim groups. Al-Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood have been foes for decades. "But the U. February 13. Only last month. ***A2: Spillover/Instability*** ." Indeed." said J. a consulting firm. has good counterterrorism cooperation with governments of countries like Turkey.-Egyptian counterterrorism work”. Al-Qaeda opposes the kind of democracy that millions of Egyptians called for in the 18 days of mass demonstrations that led to Mubarak's toppling. C. now chairman of ERG Partners. said Dunne. if Some former the future Egyptian government is less repressive.S. Grenier predicted the relationship would continue even if the Muslim Brotherhood controlled the next government. If anything. Washington Post Staff Writers.S. at least in the short run. and polls show that Egyptians overwhelmingly reject the group's brutal methods and rigid ideology. 21 people died in a carbomb attack on a Coptic Christian church in Alexandria. 3 warrants: A." a democratic Muslim nation. "maybe Egypt won't be producing terrorists" like Ayman al-Zawahiri.washingtonpost. agreed that the new Egyptian government will be much more sensitive to public opinion than Mubarak's regime. They note the country has every interest in combating terrorism. Scott Carpenter. 2011.html?hpid=topnews) CJC officials. “Mubarak resignation throws into question U.com Thursday File A2: Counterterrorism Impacts No risk of collapsing counterterrorism operations. They know that. a Middle East expert with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. the Brotherhood "understands the extremists better than anyone else.
There were a lot of predictions that got way ahead of where the facts were.first. “It has been a game-changer in how people see their governments and their ability to change them. the last one to occur in the region had been the Iranian revolution -. which must increase popular participation in the decision making. though he added that “Jordan is different from Tunisia and Egypt.and that remained a one-off event for three decades. The spillover or domino effect tends to be less than people fear it will. who is now vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 131/148 Cross-X. “The aristocracy is often the last to know their time is over. Overturning a government requires that a whole array of unusual circumstances align at once.the country that others looked to -.” Abdullah’s statement also called for an “immediate revision” of the laws governing politics and public freedom. the king has a template — the .com Thursday File Aff – No Egypt Spillover Egypt uprisings will not spillover into instability in the Middle East.” said a U.” said Martin Indyk. then possibly Mubarak -. “King Abdullah of Jordan and the Gulf Arab leaders have the ability to adapt. but it is going to have an impact across the Middle East. Hirsh previously served as the senior editor and national economics correspondent for Newsweek. In Jordan. “I don’t see it as a brush fire spreading across the Middle East. that the move could trigger real change. namely. who is of Jordanian descent and serves as advocacy director for the American Task Force on Palestine. After all. Tunisia’s Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. In Yemen. especially since economic discontent seems a central motivation. http://www. The Iraqis were holding elections. the media. ambassador to Israel and current director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution.no one really knows. “the king backed away from it. not that things were going badly. And Abdullah has.could spread quickly to other regimes. the betting among some of the more sober-minded analysts of Arab and Middle East politics inside and outside the U. in terms of money. “It’s a serious wake-up call that reform can’t wait any longer. and by doing so. official involved in analyzing the Arab world. King Abdullah is also running a police state that brooks no dissent. in terms of education.com/news/stories/0211/48649. “Remember in 2003 to 2005. Does the Revolution Stop There?”.” Beyond that. “So. Egypt’s government is uniquely despised for precisely the reason that it has been so stagnant in its policies. “Containing Egypt: If Mubarak Goes.html) CJC Jordan’s King Abdullah II named a new prime minister. January 31. until Tunisia. late Tuesday and ordered him to “undertake quick and tangible steps for real political reforms. Politico – 2/1 (Ben Smith and Laura Rozen.4 percent compared to Egypt’s 9. while Egypt was once seen as the aristocracy of the Arab world -. but unemployment is higher (10.7 percent (according to CIA estimates). The king described economic reform as a “necessity to provide a better life for our people.S. “Egypt has not been center of gravity in the Middle East for a very long time.com/nationalsecurity/some-u-s-experts-argue-yes--20110131) CJC That’s the only certainty now as well -. there’s no fear of the system collapsing in any way. http://www.S.” Muasher developed a political reform plan five years ago. both on its own right and when viewed in the regional context. Ali Abdullah Saleh is presiding over terrible poverty and an unemployment rate that the CIA says runs as high as 35 percent. the former ambassador to Yemen and a longtime specialist in Near East affairs. The Jordanian monarchy is still widely viewed as stable in spite of a large and restive population of Palestinian refugees and observers who said it is unclear whether the shake-up — unlike Mubarak’s new government in Egypt — represents a move toward real change.its time of influence has passed. It is quite possible that the rapid toppling of two long-entrenched Arab dictators -. government is that the turmoil in Egypt is likely containable politically -. Leaders throughout the Middle East are pushing reforms quickly to prevent uprisings. a change of government. 2011.that it sends reverberations throughout the region but without a wave of revolution to follow. “What you had was this gerontocracy sitting on top of an ossified bureaucracy. the arts. “What we see is the king realizing that this is a serious public movement. which reflect our vision for comprehensive modernization and development in Jordan. however. 2011. more than Mubarak. So were the Palestinians. where the unemployment rate is 13. former U. when people were predicting another Arab spring. not least of which is a leader who turns and flees.S. Former Jordanian Foreign Minister Marwan Muasher said. Marouf al-Bakhit.” according to a statement. but they weren’t going at all. "I think what you’re watching is this utter frustration. pushed for reforms.” There is no risk of spreading instability.politico.8 percent) there than in Egypt." Bodine added. and so he gave the protesters what they were asking for. February 1. as Ben Ali did to the surprise of many experts.” But that still is a long way from revolution. Still.” said Barbara Bodine. Political Reporters for Poiltico. but as soon as the Jordanian political establishment raised alarms.” said Muasher.nationaljournal. but we won’t be able to attain that without real political reforms.” said Ghaith al-Omari.” Indeed." Bodine said. he hopes to ensure that they do not demand anything more. “Egypt unrest threatens to spread”. Hirsh – 1/31 ( Michael Hirsh is chief correspondent for National Journal. Saudi Arabia is ostensibly rich and under rigid control.
He said that new media made it more difficult for regimes to use hard force. the government — which is publicly cheering Egyptian protesters — is also flexing its muscle. head of strategic studies at the Sheba Center for Strategic Studies (SCSS). In the Palestinian city Ramallah. King Hussein of Jordan sent tanks into Palestinian refugee camps to quash an armed insurrection. ahead of a "Day of Rage" scheduled for Thursday by civil society groups. President Mahmoud Abbas canceled the elections in 2009 for fear that his Fatah party would lose seats. abandoning plans to change the constitution enabling him to rule for life. "Everyone now is focused on the day after Saleh. thousands of civilians lost their lives. the Western-backed authority said it would move swiftly to hold local elections. including one Dutch national who participated in European protests. Less than 24 hours after Egyptian president Husni Mubarak announced he would neither run again for office nor nominate his son Gamal. governments have visibly responded to the fear of spreading turmoil: In Yemen. trying to avert the mistakes made by their Egyptian and Tunisian counterparts. Miller. In 1982 iron-fisted Syrian forces leveled the city of Hama as President Hafez Al-Assad ruthlessly crushed a Sunni Islamic revolt." Awwas said that President Saleh's announcement was more likely an attempt to quell opposition rage than a sincere declaration he would step down. he added.com Thursday File Muasher plan. In Iran. government’s rhetoric about human rights and democracy might actually mean something.allheadlinenews. However. ***A2: Iran Reform*** . ‘Gentlemen. the Yemeni president on Wednesday announced he would not stand for another term. Reporter. Today. said that Arab leaders were now opting for a proactive approach. and after King Abdullah of Jordan sacked Prime Minister Samir Rifai and his cabinet. Maddy-Weitzman. "The era of tanks and security control is over. whose small populations and immense wealth have typically allowed the regimes to defuse political protest — responded visibly. "I will not extend my mandate and I am against hereditary rule. as opposed to representing a set of meaningless talking points they can ignore. Miller – 2/2 (David E. "The important thing is he will not be able to bequeath the Presidency to his son." Awwas said. a Yemeni think-tank. after what happened in Tunisia and Egypt. Kuwait’s government announced payments of more than $3. February 2." Maddy-Weitzman told The Media Line. but only reforms in the election system and a tougher government approach to corruption." Aish Ali Awwas. 2011." Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh told his country’s parliament. quickly giving in to the demands of change from their people.S. reportedly executing a record number of prisoners in January. a senior Middle East researcher at the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel-Aviv University. The new era will be one of peaceful activities. The question is whether he will now have the basis to go to the East Bank establishment and say." During the 1970s and 1980s Arab rulers used massive force without hesitation to quell local opposition. taking both concrete and symbolic steps.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 132/148 Cross-X.com/articles/7022549122) CJC The use of crushing military force to put down popular uprisings has lost its punch in the Arab Middle East. “They’re dumbfounded by the notion that the U. leaders appear to be altering their tactics. "What happened in Tunisia and Egypt has an impact on other Arab states. because there will be no backlash from other governments. "They’re trying to defuse the atmosphere and recalibrate. where protesters have clashed with police. such as by the Iranian regime of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that crushed the popular opposition riots following the elections last year. Even seemingly stable regimes — notably American allies like Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. One day after the protests broke out in Egypt.500 to its subjects to subsidize the cost of food. Saleh's 32-year presidency will expire in 2013. President Ali Abdullah — who last week raised the salaries of government employees and soldiers — announced expanded payments to thousands of poor families and eliminated tuition for students at state universities. There will be no spill over from Egypt creating instability. The opposition did not demand Saleh's resignation either. more violence is sometimes used. depriving Arab Bruce countries of their traditional monopoly over the flow of information. http://www. told The Media Line. Dr. sink or swim? If we do not implement this political reform program now. In both events. And the evident American and European willingness to watch Mubarak fall may have prompted autocrats to re-evalute their own relationships. we will all go down together. “Times are changing use of force in Arab world”.’” What is clear is that the turmoil in Tunisia and Egypt has roiled the region with an intensity not seen since the 1970s. In September 1970.” said Human Rights Watch Washington Director Tom Malinowski. Across the region.
far greater. and is unlikely to reappear anytime soon.” Certainly there may be Iranians who are envious of the ease with which the Arabs dispatched their leader. that turned out to be an illusion. had focused on protesters and demonstrators in 2009 and on the government’s heavy crackdown. or sedition. is that the government has been successful in portraying itself — at least to moderate supporters — as being aligned with Western interests. the extent of support that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did have — which even green movement leaders estimated to be in the millions. the government has not shied away from gleefully reporting the Arab uprisings.com/printstory. those hopes will most likely be dashed. Their struggle since the fall of the shah for representative government has not depended on the removal of one man or one family. however. But there was little indication that Iran’s youth were readying themselves for another challenge to authority. If there is any secret desire among U. That is not to say that there is no discontent or that the green movement — more a civil rights movement than the revolution that many in the West had hoped for — is completely irrelevant.S. they are made with the Islamic Revolution of 1979. famously. Majd – 1/31 (Hooman Majd. with Ahmadinejad and his government. much like Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak. is the author of “The Ayatollahs’ Democracy: An Iranian Challenge”. In the West.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 133/148 Cross-X. In the almost two years since. Many of the green movement’s demands still resonate with Iranians — some even. at least among the majority of Iranians. But it is indisputable that the popular opinion of Arab states runs contrary to what we ordinarily call “U. 2011.S. But Iran has been free of foreign influence — even if its citizens haven’t always agreed with the government’s policies. “Tunis envy. much like the Cedar Revolution. It largely ignored.” It is not so different in Iran — except that popular opinion on U. and Iran’s youth are. In Tehran. which affect ordinary citizens’ quality of life. is far closer to the truth. an Iranian-American writer. hegemony as much as they are against dictatorship.S. is in line with the government’s. Iranian supporters of the green movement were quick to disseminate catchy slogans: “Tunes tunest. That’s not to say that the anti-Americanism displayed by Iranians is anything but anti-imperialism.The media. The Iranian media covered both extensively. Those large demonstrations are being cited as the sparks that ignited the imagination of all who live under repressive regimes in the Middle East. “Iran won't take cues from Egypt”. was a lifetime dictator closely allied with Washington. support — little of which trickles down to their citizens.cfm?uuid=D87B8D53-EA90-B6B4-DB70DE791553C0EC) CJC There has been a temptation in the West to tie the convulsions in Tunisia. Unlike Arabs. Iranian exiles and many Western analysts have declared the country an unredeemable dictatorship. meanwhile.S. better yet. challenges and debate among the three branches of government — with Ahmadinejad not always coming out on top. Iran has been subjected to U. I was in Tehran when the Tunisian president fled his country and after the Hezbollah-engineered collapse of the Lebanese government. more than a century. But within Iran. One reason the green movement lost steam in Iran. This Iranian narrative.” meaning Tunisia could. Both before and after the contested 2009 election. But again. sanctions.S.politico. the most pro-American — but not pro-U. Iranians have a long history. citizens see politics as usual: continuing disputes. Arab countries have also had dictators who were supported. and is. as the 2009 post-election crisis is described. however. officials that Iran’s opposition green movement will now be motivated by what it inspired and rise up again to overthrow the Islamic system.S. Persians are not Arabs and have little in common with them culturally. But. while Arab countries are key strategic allies and their governments receive billions of dollars in U. interests. It may be a stretch for the Iranian government to proclaim that Arab protesters are revolting against U. of democratic movements. foreign policy — in the region. The West’s view that Iran has an overwhelmingly unpopular dictatorship and that the green movement sought to overthrow the political system is fundamentally wrong. until now. evidently. interests. As with the Lebanese protests. But major change in Iran is unlikely to come . http://dyn.S. the green movement’s large number of demonstrators gave the impression that the entire country was unified behind one goal. apart from the severity of the government’s crackdown. however. politically or even religiously. Arab protesters could have only dreamed about what Iran has achieved politically in the past 30-plus years. which swept the shah off the Peacock Throne and into ignominious exile. Iran has been more politically analogous to the red state. Iran natunest. Iran couldn’t or. there is not enough support against Iranian leadership. indeed. Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. But Iran’s green movement had more in common with the Lebanese Cedar Revolution of 2005 than with the 2011 uprising in North Africa. Rather. blue state dynamic in the United States than to the one-man rule of many Arab states. January 31. Egypt and elsewhere in the Arab world to Iran’s 2009 green movement protests. coddled and encouraged by Washington and who acted against the wishes of their citizens. Support for the supreme leader and the Islamic system was.com Thursday File Aff – No Iran Reform There will be no Iranian overthrow of government sparked from the Egyptian protests. Facile comparisons aside. But analogies are made not with the fetneh.
Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. unlike in the Arab states. ***A2: Muslim Brotherhood Bad*** . isn’t united in hatred of its leaders. Not while the whole country.com 134/148 Thursday File about through street protests — which is why no one calls for them anymore.
.html) CJC Other U. they don’t want power and the military would NEVER allow it. reporter for Bloomberg News.bloomberg.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – No I/L: Muslim Brotherhood Muslim Brotherhood will not rise to control the government. said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” yesterday.” Martin Indyk.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 135/148 Cross-X. “I don’t think the military are going to let the Muslim Brotherhood take over and the Muslim Brotherhood know that and they’re keeping their heads down. lawmakers have raised concerns that the Muslim Brotherhood.C. 2011. a former ambassador to Israel who is vice president for foreign policy at the nonprofit Brookings Institution in Washington. and saying basically they don’t want to take over. http://www. an opposition group accused of terrorist ties. might seize control of the country. Bloomberg – 2/13 (Viola Gienger.S. Feb 13. “Public Praise.com/news/2011-02-13/public-praise-private-calls-keep-pentagonconnected-to-egypt-s-military. Private Calls Keep Pentagon Connected to Egypt's Military”. . D.
Sun News – 2/14 (LEE KEATH and HAMZA HENDAWI .Associated Press reporters. This guts their extremist internal which are critical to their impact story.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – Brotherhood Won’t Run No Internal link – Muslim Brotherhood will not run for election.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 136/148 Cross-X. "We are not going to have a candidate for the upcoming presidential elections. “Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood plans political party”." he said. in my opinion we need a national consensus.html#storylink=mirelated) CJC The Brotherhood announced Tuesday that it would form a party once promised freer laws are in place. a prominent Brotherhood figures. Its time for solidarity. its time for unity. 2011." spokesman Mohammed Mursi said in a statement on the Brotherhood website. 14. "The Muslim Brotherhood group believes in the freedom of the formation of political parties. Essam el-Arian.thesunnews.com/2011/02/14/1981307/egypts-us-envoy-says-mubarakmay. http://www. . Feb. acknowledging that such a move would be too controversial. But he said the Brotherhood's top leadership had decided on the creation of a party. They are eager to have a political party. said the movement would not run any candidate for upcoming presidential elections.
arguing that the Brotherhood is less interested in seizing power and calling the shots than it is in spreading its message and influencing policy. As a result. Islamic role is essential But let's face it. 2011.com/2011/POLITICS/02/02/sweep. no democracy. Beehner – 2/1 (Lionel Beehner is a fellow with the Truman National Security Project and Ph. February 2. CNN – 2/2 (Elise Labott and Josh Levs. Rosefsky believes it will. as they have with Hamas in Palestine or Hezbollah in Lebanon. can best be summed up: Hey. The key question is whether the Brotherhood will continue to exercise self-restraint when the Mubarak regime falls. when the group was founded in a smoky coffeehouse in 1920s Cairo. And the bulk of its membership comprises moderates committed to peaceful relations with Egypt's neighbors. an opposition candidate for president. Other experts believe the Brotherhood will grab power if given the chance. the group does have a presence among the masses. and nonMuslims. as the country's largest opposition movement. though their role and influence remain unclear. we may not be perfect. Indeed.S. There is concern that a party inhospitable to American interests — namely the Muslim Brotherhood — could fill a power vacuum were President Hosni Mubarak to be tossed from office like Tunisia's Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Activism and Political Change in Egypt.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – A2: Muslim Brotherhood Bad Muslim Brotherhood does not represent a threat to transition to radical Islam in Egypt. but to reform Egyptian politics by cleaning up corruption and releasing political prisoners. The Atlantic's Robert Kaplan describes the group as a "community self-help organization. given its offshoots with ties to terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda and its alleged role in the assassination of Egyptian President Anwar Sadat in 1981. when presidents from Pakistan's Pervez Musharraf to Egypt's Mubarak played up the threat of radical Islamists at home to secure more goodies from Washington — namely billions of dollars worth of aid and military hardware — and retain power.html? eref=rss_politics&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fcnn_allpolitics+%28RSS %3A+Politics%29) CJC Rosefsky Wickham. These fears are overblown.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 137/148 Cross-X. But after being banned in 1954.com/news/opinion/forum/2011-02-01-column01_ST2_N. including Israel.S. their primary aim is not to roll back women's rights or install an Islamic caliphate (much less a Taliban-style haven for terrorists). the movement drifted from the fiery rhetoric of past enlistees such as al-Qaeda deputy Ayman al-Zawahri— or even the anti-American theologian Sayyid Qutb — to make room for liberal values. Nor is it clear they'd install an Iran-style theocracy. Though technically illegal. Indeed. U. some foreign policy observers are urging caution in calling for regime change or immediate elections. no democracy. That isn't a bad thing.egypt/index. Their relationship vis-à-vis the U. the alternative is worse. We have seen this in spades since 9/11." Even though its members support sharia law. for a democratic coalition to come to power in Egypt it has to make political room for religious groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood. http://www. its orientation was hardly pro-democratic. True. policy still feels . 2/1/2011. http://www. “In Egypt. But Washington cannot wish away their widespread support among Egypt's religious classes. Mohamed ElBaradei. candidate in political science at Yale University.cnn. 'Islamist' fears overblown”." What we are seeing is the Arab world corollary: No Islamist representation. The threat posed by Islamists seizing power is more often than not a crutch used by autocrats to safeguard their positions.usatoday. CNN Staff. but it is no longer the defiant anti-system movement it was in the past.us. secure foreign aid and snap up White House invitations. has won the Brotherhood's support. It is more popular than Egypt's liberal opposition." The Muslim Brotherhood is not a threat to US interests. Carrie author of "Mobilizing Islam: Religion. “The Sweep: The risk of democracy in the Middle East”. The political scientist Barrington Moore once famously posited: "No bourgeoisie. He is also a member of USA TODAY's Board of Contributors. but trust me. any grassroots reform coalition in Egypt must win the Brotherhood's support.D. And some Muslim Brothers have participated in the recent protests. Their turns are overblown rhetoric without specific facts about the Muslim Brotherhood.htm) CJC The United States has played a role of wait-and-see as protests have raged across Tunisia and Egypt. an associate professor of political science at Emory University and notes that the Brotherhood is an umbrella organization that encompasses different views and trends. The Brotherhood also suffers from an image problem.
Egypt is not post-Shah Iran. And he must. so too do we demonize parties with a religious bent. Post-9/11 paranoia about radical Islam has made too many Americans allergic to the "I" word in political movements — an untenable position in the Middle East as the U.com Thursday File hamstrung from the memories of Iran in 1979. The question is not whether the Muslim Brotherhood will seek to join ElBaradei's coalition." President Obama pledged in his June 2009 speech in Cairo.S. a secular technocrat. but whether he will accept them." Maybe. "This cycle of suspicion and discord must end. democratic — Egypt. but if the Brothers were hell-bent on installing an Iranian- style theocracy. that could be preferable to propping up an unpopular dictator. This isn't Iran Also. yes. Moderate Islam is an essential part of democracy in the Middle East —Washington needs to start reading its own memos. "Whether the Brotherhood would in fact try to impose such a (theocratic) regime is unknown. whether now or later this year. . the only way to find out would be to let them take over. they would not have thrown their support behind ElBaradei. There are no colorful or anti-American religious clerics like Ayatollah Khomeini waiting in the wings. "Unfortunately. Let us not forget that America's two most recent nation-building efforts have resulted in the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and an Iraqi constitution that defines the country as an Islamic Democratic Republic. If the Brotherhood wins in a landslide. should back elections there. so too will the Muslim Brotherhood be part of a future — and. We cannot avoid free elections because of the threat of Islamist parties. Just as the Taliban will be included in whatever future government of Afghanistan finally sticks." Max Boot of the Council on Foreign Relations wrote recently. itself has acknowledged in practice. just as we tend to oversentimentalize the secular opposition candidates as saints. Indeed. meanwhile. The United States.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 138/148 Cross-X.
”. Essam el-Erian. blasted the Brotherhood’s willingness to participate in parliamentary elections and reject nuclear arms.” The previous day.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss) CJC AS Egyptians clash over the future of their government. is the author of “Talking to the Enemy: Faith.” People in the West frequently conflate the Brotherhood and Al Qaeda. a former member of the Brotherhood’s Guidance Council. But it is because democracies tolerate disparate political groups that they generally don’t have civil wars. 2011. the House speaker. “You forget about the rule of Shariah. Kaseem said. adding that “the street” knew the truth. In Egypt today.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 139/148 Cross-X. he retorted that the United States and Mr. This error was compounded when the Brotherhood threw in its lot with Mohamed ElBaradei. When I asked Dr. The street. a newspaper editor and human rights activist. the University of Michigan and John Jay College. he would just shut down the cafe and arrest us.” If Egyptians are given political breathing space. 11 to “brainwash” people into thinking of all Muslim activists as terrorists. Gamal Abdel Nasser and Anwar elSadat all faced the same problem that Hisham Kaseem. “You also have others. On Tuesday. “Egypt’s Bumbling Brotherhood”. Dr. Ever since its founding in 1928 as a rival to Western-inspired nationalist movements that had failed to free Egypt from foreign powers. “If people met in a cafe and talked about things the regime didn’t like. King Farouk. Erian told me. many ignored him and few rallied to his side despite the enormous publicity he was receiving in the Western press. And because the Brotherhood itself is not monolithic — it has many factions — it could well . Only a small minority of the protesters in Tahrir Square joined its members in prayers there (estimates range from 5 percent to 10 percent). the Muslim Brotherhood has tried to revive Islamic power. Ayman al-Zawahri. so the Brotherhood survived. notably its stance against Israel.” he said in vilifying the group. the former diplomat and Nobel Prize winner. Many of the other clinics are Islamic in orientation simply because most Egyptians are Islamic. Atran – 2/2 (Scott Atran. “Israel must know that it is not welcome by the people in this region.” Mr. said of Egypt on Monday. the former British prime minister. Nonetheless. are problematic for American interests. Erian about this. “You don’t just have a government and a movement for democracy. In January 2006. if only to protect their businesses from government disapproval. or wars with other democracies. Kaseem said. You “falsely affiliated with Islam.nytimes. Kaseem told me.000 adherents out of a population of over 80 million. “In this uprising the Brotherhood is almost invisible. But here’s the real deal. it might be backing the wrong horse. the former leader of Egypt’s Islamic Jihad and Al Qaeda’s leading strategist. the Brotherhood counts perhaps some 100. today it forswears violence in political struggle. a city of 18 million. from which you are banned to possess. Erian said.” Many people outside Egypt believe that the Brotherhood gains political influence by providing health clinics and charity for the poor. even many Egyptians suspect that they share a common end that is alien to democracy. “It’s too early to even discuss whether ElBaradei should lead a transitional government or whether we will join him. And its failure to support the initial uprising in Cairo on Jan. And according to Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh. described playing out under Mr. John Boehner. February 2. the group has only six clinics in Cairo. who would take this in a different direction. The Brotherhood realized that in addition to being late. however.” But when Mr. Although originally the Brotherhood was organized into paramilitary cells. told Al Jazeera. the Muslim Brotherhood may have gained an opportunity. notably the Muslim Brotherhood. the Brotherhood’s importance will rapidly fade.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – A2: Muslim Brotherhood Takeover Muslim Brotherhood does not have the ability to take control. 25 has made it marginal to the spirit of revolt now spreading through the Arab world. the Brotherhood will probably have representatives in any freely elected government.” Tony Blair. ElBaradei strode into Tahrir Square. Brotherhood and the (Un)making of Terrorists. “Political groups support ElBaradei to negotiate with the regime.” Dr. A Brotherhood spokesman. Mubarak had conspired after Sept. http://www. And although their means are very different. The British. Mubarak. Mr. Yet in 83 years it has botched every opportunity. and few Islamic slogans or chants were heard. Their evidence is not supported by facts on the ground in Egypt and the military will check back and ensure a peaceful transition. the Brotherhood did not arrive at this historical moment with the advantage of wide public favor. Obviously the Brotherhood wants power and its positions. Moreover. But the very poor in Egypt are not very politically active. welcome the Crusaders’ bases in your countries and acknowledge the existence of the Jews who are fully armed with nuclear weapons. Americans and Europeans have repeatedly expressed fears of the Muslim Brotherhood. The wealthier businessmen who often sponsor them tend to shun the Brotherhood. It might be able to recover lost leverage by showing its organizational tenacity in resisting the attempts to repress the demonstrators. Such support as it does have among Egyptians — an often cited figure is 20 percent to 30 percent — is less a matter of true attachment than an accident of circumstance: the many decades of suppression of secular opposition groups that might have countered it.” This kind of flip-flopping makes many Egyptians scoff. which fear them as the bogeyman.com/2011/02/03/opinion/03atran. Dr. an anthropologist at France’s National Center for Scientific Research. “but not in America and Europe.” Mr. “But you can’t close mosques. manifests little support for the Brotherhood. This has made it a target of Al Qaeda’s venom. expressed hope that Hosni Mubarak would stay on as president of Egypt while instituting reforms to prevent the Muslim Brotherhood and other extremists from grabbing power. When the army allowed hundreds of Mubarak supporters and plainclothes policemen through barricades on Wednesday to muscle out protesters. at least as many Egyptians see it.
” both of which in recent decades have had coups on the heels of democratic elections. the intelligence chief and new vice president. Though in one sense it happened overnight. they are connected and they will get power in the end. “Let the U. independent of the Brotherhood or any old guard opposition. many of its young proponents have long been working behind the scenes.” urged Mr. Mubarak responsible for the violence and privately inform the Egyptian Army that it cannot support any institution that is complicit. will be acceptable to Egyptians if the army gets rid of Mr. as it so promisingly began to do over the past week.” Mr.com 140/148 Thursday File succumb to internal division if there really were a political opening for other groups in Egypt. The more common assessment even among democracy advocates is that the military will retain control — Omar Suleiman.Q. A military in control behind the scenes — for a while — is probably the best hope for a peaceful transition. We are handling this beautifully. Egyptians are a pretty savvy lot. If Egypt is allowed to find its own way. stay away. What we are seeing in Egypt is a revolt led by digitally informed young people and joined by families from all rungs of society. although that may reflect a vain hope of using that time to broaden its popular support enough to reach a controlling plurality.” If America’s already teetering standing among Egyptians and across the Arab and Muslim world is not to topple altogether. The Brotherhood leadership talks of a year or two of transition. Kaseem said. an open press. Even a military leader with an I.S. But there is little reason for the United States to fear a takeover by the Muslim Brotherhood. the United States must now publicly hold Mr. ***A2: Suez Canal*** . the problems of violent extremism and waves of emigration that America and Europe most fear from this unhappy region could well fade as its disaffected youth at last find hope at home. who insisted that he is pro-American and abhors the Brotherhood. Kaseem. Hardly anyone I talked to believes that democracy can be established overnight. Mubarak now — and over the next decade real democratic reforms will be instituted.A. “They are only bungling things with calls for immediate reforms and against the Brotherhood. a representative Parliament. their interests are mostly secular. “Egypt is missing instruments essential to any functioning democracy and these must be established in the transition period — an independent judiciary.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. of 30 wouldn’t go down the same path as Mubarak because he would understand that the people of Egypt who are out in the streets are no longer apathetic. “If you try to push democracy tomorrow we’ll end up like Mauritania or Sudan.
speaking at a London event hosted by the Policy Exchange think tank." Gen. economically. http://www. "When you look at the fiscal impact of that (closing the canal) on whoever is in a position of authority in Egypt.reuters." he said. I just can't imagine the motive to shut that down. economically. militarily" to any closure of the Suez Canal although such an event seems inconceivable. militarily. . I've not requested or directed anything like that.S. Feb 1. Mattis said the United States had no plans to re-order its military forces in the region because of instability in North Africa. He had been asked if the United States would be prepared to act if there were any disruptions to the key shipping channel because of instability in Egypt. These issues do not call for a military solution right now. 2011. “U.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 141/148 Cross-X. Central Command said on Tuesday. whatever." he said.S. "Were it to happen obviously we would have to deal with it (Reuters) diplomatically." he said. the head of U. "The short answer is no. sees Suez Canal closure as inconceivable”. James Mattis said. Reuters – 2/1 (Staff. I've not received any orders. but that to me is hypothetical and I would defer to the political leaders.com/article/2011/02/01/us-egypt-usa-mattis-idUSTRE71086W20110201? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29)CJC The United States would respond "diplomatically.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – US Will Keep Suez Canal Open US is prepared to intervene to keep the Suez Canal open. "There's no reason right now for any shift in military forces or anything like that.
POLITICO – 2/1 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico and Mike Allen is the chief political correspondent for Politico and Laura Rozen is a reporter at POLITICO.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – A2: Oil Cut-Off No Impact and No Risk that Oil gets cut off regardless who is in control in Egypt. “There’s no leverage in cutting off a key earner.politico. They don’t need a big spike in gas prices to go along with a 20 percent hike in food prices. http://dyn.com/printstory. a Washington think tank. some mitigating factors.” said former State Department and Defense Department official Anthony Cordesman. a Middle East expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. however. And Egypt — especially the army. “Egypt: Worst scenarios for W. February 1. which guards the canal — badly needs the revenue it generates.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 142/148 Cross-X.cfm?uuid=DE7516BA-D472-D8EDD73BCE853D37CED6) CJC There are.H. and they are going to need it in a hurry. 2011.” . “Whoever is governing is going to need money. The canal and pipeline together control only about 3 percent of the world’s crude oil supply.”.
“Egypt's unrest revives debate about U. Restuccia – 1/31 (Andrew Restuccia.” The real problems. however.2 million barrels of oil per day to other countries. http://thehill. oil dependency”. But the analyst warned that widespread protests across the Middle East that shut down key oil supply routes could pose a threat. but manageable. Energy and Environmental Reporter for The Hill. “In the event of a shutdown. Book said. Kevin Book. Book said.com/blogs/e2-wire/677e2-wire/141329-protests-in-egypt-spur-talk-of-oil-prices-drilling) CJC A leading energy analyst said Monday that a short-term shutdown of the Suez Canal would likely not result in major problems. 01/31/11. which currently runs at reduced capacity. is whether countries like Iran and Venezuela “seize upon tight global oil system capacity to air grievances or issue proclamations. Book said the result would be “nontrivial.000 barrels of oil per day from Egypt to other parts of the world.com Thursday File A2: Suez Canal Shut Down = No Impact There is no impact to shutting down the Suez Canal.” Book said. However. which carries about 600. Despite the length in transit. were to be shut down for a short time. oil would have to be rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope at the tip of Africa. The other issue of concern. which carries 3. southbound flows would still be blocked.” Book said. oil flowing northbound could be diverted to Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude oil pipeline.S.” ***A2: Aid Cuts*** . an analyst at ClearView Energy Partners. If the Suez Canal. If the Suez Canal closure lasted too long. reserves from International Energy Agency countries could cover any losses. said the biggest concern is how unrest in Egypt might affect the transport of oil. it is only if there is a spill over in the Middle East.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 143/148 Cross-X. “turning a 15-hour trip into a 600-hour trip. would come if protests in Yemen affected oil transport through the nearby Strait of Bab el-Mandab.
director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. leaving scant time for big policy changes. 2011.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 144/148 Cross-X.reuters. Feb 2. http://www." Alterman said.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC "I have a hard time seeing the politics come together in order to have a bipartisan and bicameral agreement on cutting aid to Egypt soon. http://www. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”. Feb 2. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell. "I don't think Americans have a clear view yet (of events in Egypt) and therefore it's hard for Congress to have a clear view. House . The bill should be on the House floor by the week of February 14. Cornwell – 2/2 (Susan Cornwell. There will be no cuts. not enough time to cut it from the budget. 2011.reuters.com/article/2011/02/02/us-egypt-usa-aid-congress-idUSTRE71194420110202? feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters %2FPoliticsNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Politics+News%29) CJC Republican aides doubt there will be any major cuts in military aid to Egypt in the House version of an upcoming bill to fund the government from March through September 30. “Lawmakers' views vary on aid cutoff to Egypt”.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – No Aid Cuts Aid will not get cut anytime soon. Staff. a House aide said. Staff." said Jon Alterman.
And if the government decides to open border crossings between Egypt and the Gaza Strip. Most agree that clamped down on arms to Hamas and opposed Hezbollah.S. “Ideology shadows fight to rule the new Egypt”. Mubarak The Brotherhood wants to put Egypt's peace treaty with Israel up to a referendum. Abdel Fattah said. 2/14/2011." he said. referring to the U. For years. "we will support Hamas like others will.usatoday. Even liberals say they will pay more attention to the Palestinians than Mubarak did.htm) CJC Egypt's policy toward Israel will change no matter who gains power. Dorell – 2/14 (Oren Dorell.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 145/148 Cross-X. Reporter at USA TODAY.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt Policy -> Israel Inev. ***A2: Israel*** ***Offense*** .com/news/world/2011-02-14-1Aegypt14_CV_N. Change Egyptian policy toward Israel will change inevitably. http://www.-designated terror group that rules Gaza.
Gregg.” he said. thinks .cfm?uuid=DE7516BA-D472-D8EDD73BCE853D37CED6) CJC the looming shift away from the Camp David Accords could be a spur to peace negotiators. February 1.”. “This makes it clear that Israel and Palestine have to come to a significant peace agreement — sooner rather than later because there is going to be tremendous instability in Egypt for the foreseeable future.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 146/148 Cross-X.com/printstory.H.politico. POLITICO – 2/1 (Glenn Thrush covers Capitol Hill for Politico and Mike Allen is the chief political correspondent for Politico and Laura Rozen is a reporter at POLITICO. for one.com Thursday File Aff – Egypt – Turn: Peace Process The failure of the Egypt-Israel Peace Accords would spark Israel-Palestinian deal. http://dyn. “Egypt: Worst scenarios for W. 2011.
It will quite likely be mocked by Hassan Nasrallah of Hezbollah — just as he mocked France for how quickly it abandoned its client after Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali’s departure from Tunisia. In any case.S.com/printstory. every year since the Iraq War began. is that the revolt was not viewed as directly related to the West. As long as the United States has a heavy military footprint in the region. one has to wonder whether these events could have taken place even earlier had there not been the diversion of the Iraq War — and whether these upheavals might have swept away Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship without shots being fired from the outside. But let’s have no illusion about the effect of what we say on the outcome in Egypt — or throughout the Arab world. where there is obvious public opposition to the clerical regime. anger with the United States on foreign policy issues — particularly Iraq and the Arab-Israeli conflict — and deep suspicion of U. When the Bush administration used the Iraq War as a vehicle to spread democratic change in the Middle East.S. Washington has been debating what the White House should or should not say. like the Al Jazeera network. the vast majority of the Arab public passionately opposed it. national discourse that the anger with the United States is only about its support for authoritarian governments in the region.politico. and even many . as if American words in the middle of an upheaval that is not our doing can affect the outcome in Egypt and turn the tide of Arab public opinion in favor of the United States. foreign aid. for its own sake.S. But others. To be sure. and from the U. Events in Egypt are mostly out of our control. policy in the region in the past few years. The outcome has been that.com Thursday File Aff – Withdraw = More Democratic Reforms Large military foot print in the middle-east drives repression and will spark continued violent backlash against oppressive regimes. does take a forceful position. Resolving Washington’s dilemma in its relationship with authoritarian rulers in the region will not be addressed by White House speeches or even the elimination of U. There is a sense in U. voice on behalf of regime change in Cairo. is fighting wars in the Middle East and is invested in the outcome of the ArabIsraeli conflict. as indicated by the contestation over the 2009 presidential election. It’s not up to the United States to determine who the next president of Egypt will be. Whether President Barack Obama publicly calls for President Hosni Mubarak to resign will very likely have little effect on Arab and Egyptian public opinion. including those in places supporting an Egyptian revolution. The plan moves away from a large military footprint in the middle east allowing for more democratic reforms. Telhami – 1/31 ( Shibley Telhami is Anwar Sadat professor for peace and development at the University of Maryland and a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. one wonders whether the Iranian people might succeed if the regime were robbed of its ability to point fingers at the West. foreign policy.S.S. who are prepared to risk their lives for them. January 31. The Iraq War was most telling. One reason the Tunisian revolution succeeded in toppling the president without major ramifications for the U. “Upheaval in Egypt: Not about the U. Even in Iran.S. Even as the United States was waging a war partly in the name of democracy. intentions put the genuine democracy advocates in the region on the defensive. many of whom were happy to get Washington’s support to throw off their dictator but were still unhappy with U.S. America’s inability to engineer political outcomes in the region — or even predict them — has been demonstrated in events ranging from the outcome of the Iraq War itself to contests for power in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley 147/148 Cross-X. The United States support of repressive regimes because they are willing to support US policy means more oppression of people to keep them quiet. This includes places like Iran. Washington is likely to be seen as attempting to control events — moving to pre-empt the public will and engineering an outcome to its liking. must side with people standing for self-determination and freedom. are already asking whether the Egyptian upheaval was instigated by Washington — with some “evidence” presented. But if there is any lesson to be learned from Tunisia. it is that these historic and indigenous events in Egypt must not become about the United States. we must have no illusion about how it will be spun by many Arabs. it will continue to prefer cooperative regimes over a public will that goes against it. polls of Arabs revealed their sense that the Middle East is even less democratic than before. As we witness the remarkable and inspiring events in both Tunisia and Egypt. The United States.cfm? uuid=D88A5DBE-DB47-2BCB-9B6BD331D950FDD0) CJC Ever since Egypt’s public demonstrations calling for regime change began. But it’s deeper and more complex — as we have seen in the attitudes of the Iraqi people. many democracy advocates want to see a more forceful U.S. 2011. http://dyn.”. If and when the U. It is partly about that.S.
security service to security service.S. . reacted in the way they knew best: They became even more repressive. this is a moment for a bigger assessment of U. which made them even more insecure. Given that repression now appears to be failing. are military to military.Egypt – Harvard/Berkley Cross-X. priorities.com 148/148 Thursday File governments counseled against it — largely for fear of public opposition. policy in the region — beyond what happens in Egypt. The net result was that those governments that went against the will of the overwhelming majority. regardless of who rules at the top. intelligence to intelligence. driven by strategic U.S. These agencies are the anchors of repression in the region. Today. But we insisted and we rewarded and we threatened — and got our way with most. our closest institutional relationships in the Arab world.