Constant Share and Shift Share Projection Examples: Input Growth Rates

Input data in the yellow cells.

Constant Share
Employment Levels Projected 2010 1,323 12,650 132,000 1,210,000 State as Share of National Total Projected 2010 10.5% 10.9% Result of the Constant Share Projection Approach: The State's share of Industry A for the nation is constant.

State Nation State Nation

Industry A Industry A Total Total

1990 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000

2000 1,150 11,000 120,000 1,100,000

Industry A Total

1990 10.0% 10.0%

2000 10.5% 10.9%

Constant Share Growth Rates Projected 1990-2000 2000-2010 15% 15% 10% 15% 20% 10% 10% 10% The Constant Share Projectionn Approach sets projected growth rate for the State's Industry A equal to the projected growth rate for the Nation's Industry A.

State Nation State Nation

Industry A Industry A Total Total

Shift Share
Employment Levels Projected 2010 1,380 12,650 144,000 1,210,000 State as Share of National Total Projected 2010 10.9% 11.9% Result of the Shift Share Projection Approach: The State's share of Industry A for the nation changes.

State Nation State Nation

Industry A Industry A Total Total

1990 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000

2000 1,150 11,000 120,000 1,100,000

Industry A Total

1990 10.0% 10.0%

2000 10.5% 10.9%

Shift Share Growth Rates Projected 1990-2000 2000-2010 15% 20% 10% 15% 20% 20% 10% 10% Shift Term 5% 10% The Shift Share Projection Approach sets projected growth rate for the State's Industry A equal to the projected growth rate for the Nation's Industry A plus or minus the shift term. Here the Projected Growth Rate for the State's Industry A is 20% = 15% (Projected National Growth Rate) + 5% (Shift Term)

State Nation State Nation

Industry A Industry A Total Total

The Shift Term in this example is the observed growth rate differential for the previous ten years. Here the Shift term is 5%=15%-10%

000 1.650 144.150 11.5% 10.000 1.000 Industry A Total 1990 10.100.000 Industry A Total 1990 10.000 100.0% 10.000 State as Share of National Total Projected 2010 10.210.000 120.650 132.000 100.9% State Nation State Nation Industry A Industry A Total Total 1990 1.000 1.000 1.0% 2000 10.000 State as Share of National Total Projected 2010 10.000.5% 10.000 1.9% 11.100.5% 10.000.9% State Nation State Nation Industry A Industry A Total Total 1990 1.000 1.323 12.000 10.0% 10.000 10.000 120.000 2000 1.Constant Share and Shift Share Projection Examples: Input Employment Input data in the yellow cells.0% 2000 10.150 11.380 12.000 2000 1.9% Constant Share Growth Rates Projected 1990-2000 2000-2010 15% 15% 10% 15% 20% 10% 10% 10% State Nation State Nation Industry A Industry A Total Total Shift Share Employment Levels Projected 2010 1. Constant Share Employment Levels Projected 2010 1.210.9% Shift Share Growth Rates Projected 1990-2000 2000-2010 15% 20% 10% 15% 20% 20% 10% 10% Shift Term 5% 10% State Nation State Nation Industry A Industry A Total Total .

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